Has MORI worked out why polls overstate Labour?
June 20th, 2008
Are too many public service workers included in samples?
The overwhelming characteristic of British political opinion polling for decades has been the constant over-statement of Labour position in relation to the other parties. This came to a head at the London Mayoral election where the three phone pollsters were producing very different figures from the online firm, YouGov.
To their great credit ICM and Ipsos-MORI did something about it. The former made some adjustments to its approach while the latter immediately announced a review of its methods.
We now have news of the first stage of the MORI changes which were included in the calculations for the national David Davis poll in the Independent on Tuesday and the UNISON poll covered yesterday. Julia Clark, the firm’s head of political polling, has emailed me to say: “Our review is ongoing, but one thing it has uncovered is that our samples have been tending to somewhat over-represent public sector workers. Therefore we will now include a weight for public sector workers moving forward…”
Although I have not got any specific data it’s a reasonable assumption that those who get paid out of the public purse might have a different political perspective than those who don’t. May be this is why polls, not just from MORI, have been pro-Labour.
The question this raises is quite why a disproportionate number of public sectors workers answer the phone and agree to take part in interviews when the pollster calls. Is there something in the nature of the people employed or their working patterns that causes this to happen?
Ipsos-MORI, of course, is the only one of the mainstream national pollsters which does not take steps to ensure a politically balanced sample. This is a controversial technique and involves asking how people voted last time and taking account of these responses when finalising the figures. It will be interesting to see how this affect future surveys from the firm and how the other firms will react.
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Aha public sector workers are more likely to take sickies, therefore more likely to be at home when the pollsters ring - genius!
Maybe the rest of us have our pensions and our job to worry about, instead of taking part in opinion polls….
Sorry……..
Sounds to me like they’re busy trying to alleviate a symptom (too many of Gordon’s public sector client-state cash lampreys), rather than the root cause: phone polling is broken by design.
I guess the terms of their reviews will have been set up to prevent them from drawing that conclusion though, for reasons of cost and pride, despite its being the correct one.
Public sector workers have the time to take out of their busy schedules of doing bugger all to participate in polling.
Good article Mike, and credit to MORI for undergoing sucha thorough review. Their findings are very interesting, and would explain a slight pro-Labour bias (the public sector is historically Labour supporting, because Labour founded and funded it).
The reason that they are overrepresented in polls? Probably the working hours, which (although pulic sector workers work hard, for example, taking their work home with them) they are still less likely to work as late at the office as their private sectos colleagues.
We need an election so we can have the theoretical result tested against the result.
I would need to be more meaningful than a bye election as well. A general election in three weeks would be nice…
Maybe public sector workers are so used to dealing in their working lives with stroppy buggers who believe they are “entitled” that they have more sympathy for cold-callers doing their jobs?
7. Surely the ’stroppy buggers who believe they are “entitled” ‘ are the public sector workers themselves….
7 - I think that might be right. As an ex-public sector worker (librarian) you do get rather used to people wandering in off the street and asking funny questions!
It will be interesting to see comparative figures going forward, with and without this latest adjustment. Hopefully these will be available.
Your default betting position is safe unless this change introduces a pro-Tory bias. It could only do so if reducing the weight of public sector workers in the sample increased the weight of a pro-Tory segment of the population too much - eg pensioners?
However, I thought that Mori weighted to age and social class already, so it’s hard to see how that might happen.
The main problem is that it reduces the effective number of degrees of freedom for the poll, increasing the statistical margin of error. However, the month-to-month noise in the poll might actually be reduced if variations in the number of public sector workers previously introduced sampling noise to the poll results.
Public sector workers are perhaps more likely to think that the public/political arena is important and that there is a value to people responding to public opinion surveys.
Or perhaps they are used to filling in endless forms and it’s nice to answer questions verbally for a change?
8 - Not as a generalisation in my view. Having worked in both sectors, there is a bit more slacking in the public sector (a serious issue in itself) but only on average. The vast majority of public sector workers are very hard working and a minority of private sector workers take the employers and customers for a ride.
Most public sector inefficiencies come from management inefficiency (e.g. decisions you wouldn’t make if you had a financial interest in the same way) rather than laziness. I think you are guilty of stereotyping.
Ok, so the claws are out for public sector workers for being lazy etc etc - no-one on the thread thus far seems to be a public sector worker, and yet we all have the time to comment here…
Public Sector workers are as hardworking as prvate sector workers, the difference being the number of on-site hours. Most teachers will be home by 5:30 (if classes finish at 4:30), but will do marking at home. I imagine the same is true of Civil Servants. This is partly due to the paper trail of the Public Sector.
The private sector has many more lower-end jobs that can only be operated from workstations linked to a secure network, so whilst middle management and above can take laptops home, most private sector employees are expected to do their long hours in the office rather than taking work home.
This is about who is at home in the peak hours of calling, which I would presume would be between 6pm and 8pm. I can imagine that a higher proportion of public sector workers are at home at this time, although I don’t think we can claim that they work less hard because of this otherwise salient fact.
Shy Tories are no longer the problem for pollsters. It is shy Labour voters now, as admitting you vote Labour makes you look like a mug.
Never underestimate the Labour machine. I used to get over excited at apparent collapses in the Labour vote, but they never materialised. I thoroughly expect Labour to recover (mostly at the expense of the Lab Dims), although I will be ecstatic if they don’t
As usual I make the last posting on a thread so before I head back to the world of work and drive to the bank to pay my Latvian agents, here is the posting I made:
Gabble you really do have the ability to imply maliciousness in every syllable you write. Do you find you endear yourself to people by constantly being unpleasant?
Whether we on this list and/or indeed the inhabitants of the Westminster village think David Davis was right or wrong, the fact that contributions appear to be flooding into his campaign HQ a la Barack Obama style clearly indicates support from many people out there in the real world. Equally to have a former Conservative Shadow Home Secretary enjoy the spectacle of having both Labour MPs and at least one SNP MP offer to campaign on his behalf clearly indicates a strong cross-party sense that what he is doing must be resonating with the electorate for these MPs to risk the anger of thier own supporters.
Lets see what happens after Henley. The sight of MPs from across the Commons campaigning for DD will not be lost on an electorate which is daily becoming more angry with this government for breaking its promises and bottling every opportunity to stand up and “face the music”. Tony Blair would have ensured a Labour candidate stands in H and H but then for all I cannot stand the man, at least he had balls whereas Gordon has Balls!!
by Easterross June 20th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
As for the polls and Mori, I suspect much is to do with the fact that pollsters are more likely to poll people who live in urban areas because it is so much easier to get a response. Those of us who live in rural areas tend to be overlooked and of course more rural people are likely to be ex-directory as indeed I am. I have only ever been polled 3 times. Once during a European election when I was stopped in Inverness High Street and twice by email.
11. I think the stats on sickies rather speak for themselves, don’t they? Though no doubt there will be claims public sector workers suffer from higher levels of ’stress’…
12. If they are all working so hard at home between 6pm and 8pm how do they have time to waste completing an opinion survey over the phone?
12. Yes, we’ve just had some cases of top-secret documents being left lying on public transport because civil servants were taking their work home.
It’s probably the nature of the people employed. Fascinating chapter on public service ethos (or similar) in recent British Social Attitudes book.
15. sickies is a bit misleading, it’s mostly a few people nearing retirement age who know they can’t be got rid of. A lot of people rarely have sick days but get lumped in as wasters all the same.
Any of our top punters on the site?
Nadal is no better than 2.87 with the bookies, which seems fair to me after this morning’s draw.
But 3.5 on Betfair and, to my surprise, plenty of money holding up that price. Can such a difference in odds be expectd to persist; if not, how quickly will the gap begin to narrow?
As a worker in the private sector I can say for sure that my public sector teaching colleagues work longer hours, have more pointless form filling to complete and have to deal with the consequences of social breakdown to a far greater degree than I do.
Why do you think I left the public sector?
As for marking, most of mine gets done sometime between 8pm and midnight, I’m usually at school to 5:30/6pm and need a break to eat/relax. I try and ignore the phone wherever possible.
11 - Quite right. Most local government staff at public-facing levels have almost total contempt for the ’strategy co-ordinators’, ’strategy planners’, ‘outreach officers’ and other semi-parasites who operate in the heirarchy and seem to be increasing in numbers everytime someone who actually does a job that helps the public is pushed out.
12 - I speak only for library staff, but as libraries are open on Saturdays and evening, (or were before endless rounds of socialist cuts) staff tend to have compensation time off during the week.
Maybe daft, but is the simple fact that Conservative voters are more likely to take part in an online survey rather than a telephone one the key?
A lot of people nowadays block that kind of cold calling, I know I do. But in the early days of the internet some said that there was an over representation of Tories in those quick surveys.
YouGov have amassed a significant number of regulars who take part in their surveys, and this must surely help them make sure that they get a very politically representative poll?
O/T an amusing development in Slovakia…
(from Reuters)
Slovak Finance Minister Jan Pociatek will offer his resignation over an alleged information leak ahead of the revaluation of the Slovak crown’s parity rate against the euro last month, he said on Friday.
“Despite the fact that the finance minister did not do anything illegal, he does not want this case to harm the (ruling) Smer-SD party. He decided to offer his position in the government to the prime minister after he comes back from a foreign trip,” the ministry said in a statement.
The opposition has said an information leak led to a jump in the crown’s value against the euro in the hours prior to the may 28 revaluation of the currency’s central parity rate against the euro. Slovakia will adopt the euro in January.
Previously it could well have been ’shy tory’ syndrome.
Just lately, it’s probably because the polls just can’t keep up with Labour’s desperate plunge into ever deeper unpopularity.
14. Being ex-directory shouldn’t make a difference to whether you are polled or not - numbers are generated randomly, not plucked directly from the phone book.
If you are up in Easter Ross, being rural shouldn’t affect you either - there is a risk of that sort of bias in face-to-face polls, but only within a sampling area. If an interiewer has a sampling error that includes both a remote rural area, and some densely packed terraced housing, it’s going to be easier for them to go to the terraced housing to find their numbers. To prevent that happening, face-to-face pollsters give their interviewers quite tightly defined areas to interview in, so they should be all rural, or all urban, taking the bias away.
(Incidentally, I spoke to Mike earlier today and threatened to make the first comment on this post under a pseudonym saying “That’s because public sector workers are all off sick at home when the pollsters call!”. I didn’t… but I didn’t need to
14 Not sure about maliciousness.
Gabble is an idiot, but he is a happy idiot.
This gives his posts a blissful, child-like, other-worldly feel to them. They are peopled with characters like the Red Queen and the Cheshire Cat, although he calls them David Davis and David Cameron.
Gabble’s post are fascinating insight into the mind of a rather vivacious five-year old.
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
25. Great minds….
It’s not that public sector workers are worse than private sector workers, in general, it’s just that a combination of powerful unions, combined with their terms and conditions of employment, make it very hard to get rid of the minority who are poorly-performing - and quite often, the simplest course of action is just to offer them early retirement.
Back on topic, I think that too many public sector workers in a sample would skew it towards Labour, although weighting by past vote would probably eliminate that source of bias.
Meanwhile, at the circus….
“Clash of the Tight’uns”
in the Red corner Harriet the harpy,
and in the Blue corner Shami the shrew
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23496943-details/Harman+weighs+into+Liberty+chief+’smears’+row/article.do
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 46% .. Obama 52% .. Others 2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 121 .. Obama 272 .. Toss Up 145
Change Since Last Projection - Georgia moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain and Alaska moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain.
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 162 .. Obama 376.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
Surely the bias is against the intelligent?
If you do your polling by phone at certain hours you are going to hear from a certain kind of person. i.e. slow-witted, obese, public sector dullards, lounging around on their “settees”, with lives so empty they look forward to a pointless chat with a pollster on a phone.
Bright, exciting, smart, sassy, highly-sexed people, have lives too full and rich to bother with such enervating idiocies. Also, intelligent people have worked out that landline calls are, these days, almost invariably from cold-calling insurance salesman, or pollsters, so they don’t even bother picking up.
As we have already established, less intelligent people tend to be leftwing, more educated sexy funny smart bright imaginative likeable people tend to be right wing. And there’s the problem.
MORI therefore needs to reduce its over-exposure to the unintelligent (i.e. leftwing people). Perhaps a short IQ test at the start of the poll?
12 When you think about it, all elected politicians are public sector workers (and so are their research assistants, PAs etc etc).
The “Indianapolis Star” muses on whether Obama has put Indiana in play :
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080620/NEWS0502/806200436
On Labour losing their deposit in Henley. I think objectively, it’s no big deal whether a party looses its deposit in a by-election in which they’re due to come third. But I agree that those who don’t follow these things as closely as we do, might not realise that, so there should be potential for ammunition to be made of it.
It’s a good point about the H&H by-election. I’d thought it would be a disaster for Labour, but of course without a Lib Dem they might well have increased their share of the vote, particularly as the specific issue is a plus for Labour.
Has no serious Labour candidate got the guts to resign and challenge Brown? Surely they can’t take much more of this and just let it happen. It’s not like knifing Blair - this would be for the good of the party. It’s very difficult to predict individuals, so we’ve no idea what will happen, but I would have thought it a respectable strategy to challenge Brown, and after winning, call a general election within a couple of months. The new leader would lose, but not by nearly as much as Brown would have, and as defeat would be anticipated, they would probably hang onto the leadership and be able to rebuild against a Tory government with a small or non-existent majority, and be ready for a win a couple of years later. What’s wrong with that?
I don’t understand the technology well enough, but would there be any mileage in Opinion Pollsters randomly dialling probable mobile phone numbers, just as they do with land line numbers?
36 Off Centre said, “but of course without a Lib Dem they might well have increased their share of the vote.”
And if they didn’t (i.e. even if Labour did very badly) they could still use the result to “prove” that all Lib Dems are really just Tories.
36 - Wouldn’t the really desperate result for Labour be if they came below the BNP?
33 - If someone calls my landline my first thought is ‘ignore it, it’s either some idiot trying to sell you something or a robocall with a great big fat silence on it. Do any UK pollsters use mobiles? I know that some US pollsters are doing so and I would have thought that a much better sample would be achieve by using them as a factor.
I shouldn’t rise to the bait but as a public sector worker the oly reason i have time to post here now is because its my day off! I think you can say the LGPS is gold plated bt a lot of other smaler company/charities have moved to money purchase or stakeholder schemes. I accept there are pckets of very high sick leave but to gneralise is unfair.
By and large I have spent a career trying to apply a sticking plaster to our broken society. If I had taken up the offer from proctor and gamble at uni i would have worked harder n some ways but not in others. but i would be richer.
29.Agreed. If I were PM for the day i’d make sacking the 3% or 4% of council oficers who are utter lazy dross easier. Nordic countries have councils with uge powers and emplo hardly anyone. We have councils with staffing lke the Indian railway and no owers.
Somethin for camerons hit list?
Ugh “settees” - how common!
36. Far too sensible. Labour will plough on with Gormless Gordon unto a catastrophic defeat. It’s almost as if they want it to happen - perhaps in subconscious penance for Iraq (the same way the Tories felt guilty over Thatcher’s assassination, and wished their later defeat upon themselves, out of shame).
Back ON topic: as I was writing the above paragraph, I caught a glimpse of Gordon Brown on BBC24, in his Brussels news conference, saying:
“This is a brazen and obscene abuse of power by a criminal cabal” -
I have to confess, I thought for a minute he was being honest about the European Commission.
But no, just Zimbabwe.
31 - Now I think Shami Chakrabarti has completely overblown Burnham’s comments (for once, I genuinely don’t think he intended them to be ‘a smear’ - this is cock-up not conspiracy), so I’m not inclined to defend her when she’s talking about libel writs and the like.
But then came Harriet Harman, who manages to completely sidestep logic. Not only does she refuse to give support to a woman who has (at worst) suffered sexist remarks (so much for the sisterhood), but she attacks Ms Chakribarti for supporting David Davis.
Presumably, Harriet Harman believes that sexism (which would be how she sees it, not I) is acceptable if there is a way in which the woman can be blamed for inciting it!
The idea that the Head of Liberty shouldn’t endorse a candidate fighting 42 days is absurd, and I don’t care if he is in favour of genocide the rest of the time. You explain the differences that you usually have and explain that this makes your alliance on this issue yet further evidence of its repugnance, and they get full-square behind him. The one charge that no-one can lay at Ms Chakrabarti is being on the Civil Liberties side of the argument (for better or for worse) in *every single instance*.
For me, the more telling story is that Harriet Harman is saying “we never would have done that [supported Davis] when I was at Liberty” - to which my initial response was “No, I don’t suppose you would have, and now you’ve gone over to the Dark Side (for a Civil Liberties lawyer), I don’t suppose you ever will…”
44 - If it was a cock up why doenst he just apologise?
@37:
I suspect they’d be more likely to get (a) a representative sample and (b) abuse if they did.
41. Definitely. What is needed is a ‘decimation rule’ whereby staffing levels have to be cut by 10% (or perhaps a little less) every year, regardless.
The chaff would soon be sorted from the wheat in such a scenario. It’s the only way to offset the otherwise iron ‘Wagner’s Law’ whereby public sector bureaucracies relentlessly increase in size….
30. But I would have thought turnout amongst public-sector workers would be higher than, say, retail workers.
Yet it was low ‘propensity to vote’ amongst claimed Labour voters which made raw polls unreliable?
Henley is meaningless as a labour result, H&H however was the chance for a fightback. That they couldn’t even get a candidate to oppose Davis has set back the labour cause once more however. Poor council elections, losing by elections and now not even standing, couple that with the bottled election that never was and you have to wonder whether the only elections that labour will bother with anymore are ones where they are ahead in to start with.
44. Once again, Thomas, you see the light having initially doubted…
…now if only you had understood why King Henry had to get divorced…
Just been you Gov’d must be a poll out at the weekend. A very long survey indeed First time I’ve been asked the intention to vote questiom
[37,40] - If someone calls my mobile without me having given them the number, and therefore an invitation to do so, I would be extremely annoyed.
I perceive a need to have a mobile with me since I have primary responsibility for my daughter and want her school to be able to contact me if there is a problem and vice versa. This is problematic if I keep on getting spurious phone calls.
44. I think it’s blown up so much simply because a lot of people don’t like labour, and want any chance to bash them, that plus Burnham is a slimy git. Harman wading in won’t help, mainly because she’s disliked too.
44 - The overblowing is deliberate, Burnham was arrogant enough to put a smear in print and the best tactic to keep up pressure on the civil liberties issue is to use it to keep the debate in the public eye.
40. This is a serious point. I can’t remember the last time I answered a landline call - I just let the answerphone pick it up. And I’m right: 90% of the time its a pointless call - mortgage salesmen etc.
But what’s the threshold of intelligence for working this out? IQ of 90?
People with an IQ below 90 are, ipso facto, more likely to be left wing.
There’s the problem.
Andy’s pandering
“Andy Burnham, the culture minister who casually defamed Liberty director Shami Chakrabarti and ex-shadow home secretary David Davis in an interview in the latest edition of the Blairite magazine Progress, has form. The former spin doctor is in the habit of attacking motive rather than substance. Earlier this year, LSE academics bore the brunt for their unflattering report on ID cards.”
Loathing of elections has led British democracy to atrophy
“Have you noticed how the political establishment hates elections? It regards them as vulgar, foreign, exhibitionist and unpredictable. To those in power they are mere concessions to mob rule. If electors did not insist on them, elections would have been abolished long ago as Victorian gimmicks to appease proletarian sentiment.
There is no other explanation for Westminster’s reaction to Ireland’s weekend vote on the Lisbon treaty and to David Davis’s resignation over 42-day-detention. Nor is there any other explanation for the welcome that will be given to Hazel Blears’s forthcoming local government white paper. This will, it is rumoured, reduce the 95% of elections still held in Britain (local ones) to largely consultative status, to clear the ground for Gordon Brown’s Putin-style appointed regional government.”
[51] - Note also that if ICM/Guardian keep to their recent pattern they will be conducting fieldwork from today until Sunday and releasing the poll next week.
45 - I think he probably should, but I can sort of understand it if he doesn’t.
Fact is, it wasn’t a serious smear, and it wasn’t incredibly insulting. It was sexist in that he wouln’t have phrased it that way if the Head of Liberty was a man, but then it wasn’t (misogynistically) demeaning her - it was decnet allegory for the Hard Man of the Tory Party being seduced by the siren voice of unfettered civil liberties, and the rhetorical device of personalising the latter worked well.
I occasionally say or do stupid things that accidentally offend people a little. If they come to me and say “Actually, I didn’t like that you said/did….” I always offer abundant and sincere apologies, because I don’t like to offend people accidentally.
If, on the other hand, they go to everyone I know and with a loudspeaker demand that I apologise or they will sue me, then (unless it really was unspeakably awful, which it never is) I’m inclined to tell them to f*** off and get over themselves.
If I offend, then let me know, and I will almost always apologise. Get on your high horse and try to force my hand, and this doesn’t end well - I have found a way to aggravate you, and a reason to do so deliberately in the future. Them’s my rules, and I’d understand if Andy Burnham did the same.
55 That must be me, then, Sean! I always answer the landline, because I cannot bear to hear phones ringing, and I always encourage people to call me on that number. My mobile is usually switched off, or on silent (because I don’t like to to hear phones ringing), and I only really use it for outgoing calls. Not only that, but the signal is always rubbish, wherever I am.
37. mobile phone polling: bad idea I think
* I guess most mobile phone numbers lead to voicemail at any one time - there are far more valid numbers out there than people in the UK due partly to the ease of getting a pay-as-you-go phone and then chucking it.
* it is way more expensive to call mobiles, and that really adds up if your job is making lots of medium-long phone calls
* I guess higher chance of being brushed off “I’m busy/driving/etc.” and creating annoyance
* very high chance of finding a child at the other end of the phone, very low chance of finding a pensioner - in fact mobile phone ownership may well be inversely proportional to propensity to vote!
44 Morus. Still trying to pin down why the Vatican thinks a Hardliner will transform the catholic Church in England and Wales into a potent force politically. I gather you don’t think it will. They tried that in Spain recently and boy didn’t that work well. In the words of the French Marshal C’est Magnifique mais n’est pas la guerre. Thoughts.
Having worked in both local councils, quangos and the private sector I can confirm that public sector workers *tend* to do far less work, feel more relaxed about pursuing personal business in the office, leave earlier, get in later, “work from home” more, and are more cavalier about deadlines and the quality of their work. All of which I think adds up to being more available for phone polling.
It amuses me that these tendencies would be so great that they skew polling data.
19: the betfair price is being propped up by a few bookies, in particular 5dimes (SBR a-rated, ie a biggie) at 3.7. Pinnacle are 3.3, which is probably where the betfair price will end up.
Hope he does win, I got 300 @5.0 after his performance vs Djokovic at Queens. If he can beat him, Roddick and Karlovic there, then on the slower courts of Wimbledon he’s going to be near unbeatable.
50 - And without the need for your more brutal methods, Francis!
how many people that pollsters ring are at work at the time? do they try to guard against that?
does public/private sector make you more or less likely to take the call at work?
what times of day do they call/what is the proportion of shift workers in the 2 sectors? in fact, aren’t shift workers more likely to be Lab voters in factories, hospitals, etc.?
55 - Fishing, Sean? Okay: Typical of the arrogant, patronising Tory attitude… the working man has more common sense in his little finger than you’d find in a dozen old Etonians… 87% of Nobel Prize winners are paid up reds… every university in Britain has a Lib Dem or Labour MP… intelligence causes wealth and wealth causes right wing voting, your causation is askew… etc, etc.
Was that the sort of thing you were after? Sorry, no time to make it coherent, too busy - but fill in the gaps yourself.
Why does political betting not report the great poll news for the UK PM. According to FT We have the most popular leader on the planet. Woo hooo. A global tracker found we are number one.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/files/2008/06/wpo-poll-on-world-leaders.pdf
61 - Not that they think a Hardliner is ideally suited, but after the Anglo-Welsh Church has become ever more liberal, I think their pool of suitable talent is probably restricted to what we would consider hardline.
They will then choose the best political operator of that bunch.
That was my thought - I agree a Hardliner would be more difficult, but smiling and liberalism hasn’t got the Church anywhere since Basil Hume. Time for a change of tack.
@65:
Oi! The notion that people of the left are more likely to be intellectually subnormal is not an official Tory position.
More just something that is quietly assumed.
@66:
Maybe Pope Sidious I can bring The Crusades out of hiatus?
59. So…. Turn off the landline bell? And get people to text you? You probably need an IQ of about 30 to work that out.
I wonder if it is possible to work out political proclivities by IQ, in the form of a table. e.g.:
IQ under 50: BNP
IQ 50-100 (from severely retarded to barely average): Labour
IQ 100-110 (just above average, but still pretty gormless): Green
IQ 110-112: (bright enough to think you’re brighter than you actually are): Lib Dem
IQ 112-140 (bright to genius level): Conservative
IQ 130-131: (narcissistically bright but not quite genius): Champagne socialist
IQ 141+ (supergenius): right wing libertarian eurosceptic sex memoirists, and his rightwing friends
@69:
Damnit. Now I’m gonna have to write my sex memoirs. Mind you, that would kind of imply that I’m done with sex for this lifetime.
Which I’m fairly hopeful is not the case.
Can I be your friend, Sean?
66 I can’t see how Comac and co have been especially Liberal on the ‘big ticket’ issues contraception etc. Only this Lathin thing really perhaps. It’s a dangerous road to travel for them as the last American Presidential election nearly showed when so it was said only deft footwork by the American Bishops averted a really nasty confrontation in America had John Kerry been refused communion.
69. what is intelligent about supporting any entrenched position unequivocally?
70. Hey - you already constitute a Special PB Friend, which is a bond no mortal man can break.
58.”Fact is, it wasn’t a serious smear, and it wasn’t incredibly insulting. It was sexist in that he wouln’t have phrased it that way if the Head of Liberty was a man, but then it wasn’t (misogynistically) demeaning her - it was decnet allegory for the Hard Man of the Tory Party being seduced by the siren voice of unfettered civil liberties, and the rhetorical device of personalising the latter worked well.”
Morus the story has legs judging by the amount of coverage in the press today, in fact front page of the Independent IIRC.
You say it was not a serious smear, or particularly insulting but then go onto say it was sexist and he wouldn’t have done it if he was a man. I thought it was a serious smear because the implication was clear, but then I am a female and you I presume, are not?
He thought that he could get away with taking a cheap shot at Davis through Shami and its backfired, deservedly so.
It reminds of labour’s tactics in C&N, and look how that turned out? At least Labour was actually standing in the by election there.
My IQ is 165 just to rui your arguement.
If only we had the £6k to comision of You Gov of MENSA members. It would keep the site in articles for a week!
‘every university in Britain has a Lib Dem or Labour MP’
University seats have been reintroduced? Marvellous!
[69] - Not clever enough to proof-read your own post though.. guess you leave that to your editors, normally..
75. almost by definition MENSA attracts a certain personality type.
people who think they are really clever, desperately want everyone to know about it - but can’t prove it by any conventional method (such as success in academic or professional life).
@78:
…people who think they are really clever, desperately want everyone to know about it - but can’t prove it by any conventional method…
Become Prime Minister?
74. Basically Burnham wanted to take a cheap shot at Davis indirectly, and try to make Davis stance a bit of a joke. Instead all he’s done is look a clueless nasty berk (the joke itself wasn’t even funny), and with Harman wading in with her singular strain of humourless ramblings, they’ve given Davis a lot of free press.
[75] - If you did have an IQ of 165 you’d know that one outlier doesn’t destroy a correlation (not that I agree with the sean’s original thesis, but, still..)
69 Personally, I still prefer a handwritten letter…..or an e-mail, if you must. But writs, summonses and warrants also attract my undivided attention.
76. an interesting sticking point for sean’s (non-)argument - which of course means it won’t be addressed. this is despite the overwhelming middle and upper class bias of university admissions.
@81:
Sean’s thesis must be wrong, because it implies that Roger is ‘narcissistically bright’.
As if.
re 62 Thanks. Useful info. I am taking what I can afford on Nadal over 3.5, in expectation odds will be down over the w/e.
btw those bookies don’t come up on the links from this site (and I don’t know what SBR is?)
Gordon Brown has said Britain will not ratify the EU Treaty until the High Court has ruled on a separate bid to force a British referendum.
Any chance this will go against the government ?
Oh really? Too much of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder
for my liking
81. incorrect. you don’t need to “know” anything to have a very high IQ.
from conhome:
William Hague welcomes latest defection from LibDems
The secretary of Wirral South Liberal Democrats was welcomed into the Conservative Party by William Hague last night:
“People are looking for change and they are realising that the only way to achieve that is through the Conservative Party. Rob Earl is the latest in a long line of former Liberal Democrats coming across to the Conservatives.”
Explaining his decision to join the Conservatives, Rob Earl said:
“It is now clear that only the Conservatives can replace this hopeless, dithering Government. I have been impressed by the changes being made to the Conservative Party and, here in Wirral, their refusal to do any kind of secret deal with Labour. Indeed, the decision by the Liberal Democrat councillors in Wirral to prop up this failing, two-star Labour Council was the final straw. It’s time for change, not ‘more of the same’,” added Rob.
Jeff Clarke, PPC for Wirral South and also a former LibDem PPC, added:
“Today’s Conservative Party is more green; more family-friendly, and more committed to giving power to local people. We are a modern and moderate party that wants to improve the quality of life for everyone and believe in social responsibility, not state control. I’m delighted to welcome Rob and look forward to working with him here in Wirral.”
A longstanding Labour councillor in Fleetwood has also defected this week.
@87:
I move that we rename that from “Narcissistic Personality Disorder” to “Being Gordon Brown Disorder”.
1. has a grandiose sense of self-importance
2. is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love
3. believes that he or she is “special” and unique
4. requires excessive admiration
5. has a sense of entitlement
6. is interpersonally exploitative
7. lacks empathy
8. is often envious of others or believes others are envious of him or her
9. shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes
[88] - I was using “know” in a rather loose sense. If someone were clever enough they could work it out from first principles.
78. My room mate at University tried to recruit me to Mensa. He had an IQ of 186 and his maths equations used to “sing” to him. He became ill and had to go to hospital for a few weeks. That kind of put me off.
Apart from IQ being quiet a didgy construct in my view I’m a bit suspicious of an organisation predicated on any natural ability. I wouldn’t join a club for all white people or brown hair.
Did i read research somewhere that you et more right wing as you get older ?
83. Er, hell-o! I can see the headline now:
Students And Academics Rely On Government Largesse And Are Left Wing
Front page stuff. Stop the presses. Who’d a thunk it! Page two headline: Fat People Seen In Doughnut Shop
91. a one year old baby with a mental age of 2 has an IQ of 200. I would not expect one to deduce your observation from first principles.
74 - Maybe its just me Chris, but I really thought this was pretty mild stuff, and am surprised that it has got this attention.
Not a fan of Burnham or Harman, and like Ms Chakribarti, but to compare this to the Labour smear campaign in C&N (the nastiness of the repeated Toff attacks, the claim he was a friend of paedophiles etc) - let’s not forget what a real smear looks like.
This would have been a smear if it was designed to make people think worse of Ms Chakribarti. If this was a genuine attempt to make people think she and Mr Davis were having an affair, then maybe I could see what you mean, but it wasn’t that, and nobody did ask “well are they?”.
He couldn’t have made the comment if she had been male, because it wouldn’t have worked - in the same way that Mrs Thatcher as Britannia in cartoons wouldn’t work, or any other comic devices.
It wasn’t a great joke, but it conveyed an idea, and I don’t think this was a smear of the same magnitude as C&N, and certainly don’t think it was intended as such.
Morus, I agree. There are few things less attractive than someone claiming a minor slight or slur has left them deeply hurt or offended. I don’t think we are in that territory in this case but there has been an overreaction.
Mind you, this kind of thing goes on in politics all the time. Boris can hardly get a word out without some Labourite taking great mock offence and demanding a formal apology to the Scousers/Portsmouthonians/helmet wearers etc etc.
89. and my great fear is cedding civil liberties to davis and not contesting H and H plays into this narritive.
[94] - Trying to fit a one year old onto an “IQ” scale robs it of any practical use. Your point is therefore a bit stupid.
95 see 71.
98. ‘ed’ is a New Labour supporter. ‘Nuff said.
92. there are plenty of great ways to use high intelligence to your advantage in the UK, and it is difficult to avoid “showing off” in the process.
I am deeply suspicious of anyone who brings up the subject of their high IQ but has not achieved anything - at best it shows they may be intelligent, but they aren’t very bright!
This includes most people I meet who advertise their IQ spontaneously, and surely the main idea of being a member of MENSA is that you can then implicitly bring up the subject of how clever you are.
“The court is very surprised that the government apparently proposes to ratify while the claimant’s challenge to the decision not to hold a referendum on ratification is before the court,” he said.
“The court expects judgment to be handed down next week. The defendants (the government) are invited to stay their hand voluntarily until judgment.”
97 - As long as there is a lib dem representative with Davis at oublic meetings and the like then the debate can be had even if not standing in total opposition. What would be a massive mistake would be to steer clear of H&H and try and ignore it.
99 - Spend some time reading the Catholic blogs and you’ll see how Liberal the Conservative wing of the Church thinks they are.
It’s a number of things - Catholic schools, liturgy (esp Latin and Music), obedience to the Vatican, abortion and IVF, homosexuality - where they are orthodox, they are also seen as pretty quiet.
To anyone not on the ultra-conservative wing of the Catholic Church, the accusation seems unfair, but there are a massive number of British Catholics who if asked to describe their Bishops would include the words ‘Liberal’ and ‘Tablet-reading’.
98. fair enough, but it isn’t of any practical use anyway! which was my point.
especially once people get old enough to sit real exams which also test more useful intelligent qualities.
100. not sure where you get that from.
@102:
The defendants (the government) are invited to stay their hand voluntarily until judgment.
That sounds ominous.
101. The level of sneering and condescension continues to rise - a sure fire sign of a New Labour bod in the room. Perhaps you can tell us about your great achievements Ed?
104 I had a look at that one you recommended. Apart from sniping at the Tablet my eyes nearly popped out at the Nazir Ali comments. Have you actually read the bit at the end?! Quite hard line I’d say.
86 - virtually no chance of the High Court finding for Wheeler.
However, this is a fairly significant development, not only because Gordon has just got a b0ll0cking from a Judge, but because Wheeler could well get leave to appeal to the Court of Appeal and then the House of Lords given the constitutional point/public interest.
And how long will that take?
Gordon has now conceded that until the court process has concluded in the Government’s favour, it will not be ratified. Parliament could have ratified it anyway. If it goes to appeal, GB can hardly now turn round and say “Well we did say ‘of course we won’t ratify until we have a judgement’, but now it’s gone to appeal we’re going to do it anyway”.
Although he’s gone back on his word before I suppose…
78. Yes, I applied to Mensa and passed the test, when I was 16. I then declined their invitation to join their pompous little club…
Just thought you’d like to know that…
108 - Parallel phenomenon to what is happening in the secular political blogs. The extreme conservative factions are much noisier online, and have embraced the technology to (for example) organise masses under the Traditional Rite.
There oppositionalism is largely due to the fact that the institutional levers of power within the UK Church are held by more liberal, mainstream factions. If the hardliners had been in control the last five years, I’d expect the Catholic blogosphere to be much more left-wing.
@105:
All reasonable measures of intellect tend to positively correlate- IQ, academic achievement, literacy, numeracy, verbal and spatial reasoning, vocubulary size.
Since they all positively correlate, it’s possible to use principal component analysis to determine the underlying orthogonal bases to intellect.
It turns out that there is one very strong axis, named ‘g’, the general intelligence factor.
Carefully-designed g-heavy IQ tests are but one way of measuring g.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G_factor
94. So if I’m 45 with a mental age of 90? …
112. you have to tread carefully with those sorts of correlation in my opinion. real genius can be very specific indeed.
In her letter, Chakrabarti does not actually deny ‘melting’ Davis’ heart, so why is she threatening to sue Burnham?
@114:
g is a pure mathematical construct. The correlations exist, of course, and drop out naturally from PCA.
However, you always have to be careful when analysing correlations, because once you start down the “correlation implies causation” path, it’s only a matter of time till you start buying the Daily Mail.
So that people like you keep whinging on about it of course.
Game, set and match to Shami.
Nick Palmer was earlier having fun at Boris’s (admittedly poor) interview on R4 yesterday, in which the blonde Bombshell was raising doubts about the Memorandum of Understanding. The King Newt called in and said it was all rubbish and London local taxpayers were protected because of the underlying value of the property purchased.
Oops
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/olympics/article4180097.ece
116: All she has to do is prove that Burnham defamed her which on the face of it he did.
119, hehe, Al Gore’s done that with ice-record derived CO2 levels and temperature.
well exactly. a quick look at some of the world’s most celebrated “geniuses” serves as a good warning against generalising from correlations of any sort.
as touched upon, I believe, in an earlier thread started by seanT about the world’s greatest scientists and their political affiliations - they are seemingly more likely to be complete fruitcakes.
115 - Yes, but she does deny ****ing him, which was perhaps the underlying innuendo.
Incidentally, if there was any truth in it (which I am legally obliged to say there isn’t), what do people think of the romantic gesture? I am more of a chocolates and flowers man myself, but maybe it explains my modest success. Or perhaps he misunderstood his mother’s advice about always giving up your seat for a lady?
122 - How was she defamed? I still don’t understand this.
114 ED. Have you managed to apologise to ChrisD about the statements you made here. “don’t worry - the facts will not be allowed to get in the way of this sort of hysterical forecast of doom.”
The facts were made plain here.
Unfortunately the “hysterical forecast” was in fact true. Never let facts bother you in your assertions.
Thanks to James who did apologise unlike Mr Burnham who came out with a “Clarifying Statement” which of course didn’t.
122 - On balance, and not to defend Burnham’s lack of chivalry in any way, I don’t really think he did defame her.
Anyway, we also have too strict a libel law in this country (claimants deliberately choose it as a forum over other jurisdictions where publication is in several countries mainly for that reason). This restricts freedom of speech and it is just a bit odd for the Director of Liberty to run to libel in this way. I can totally see why she has been offended and very much admire her work, but I do wish she would reconsider on this.
122: Burnham used innuendo which implied, or at least seemed to imply, she and Davis were sleeping with each other.
Just out of interest, did the LD’s pick an out of town candidate in Henley so they could manipulate the hospital issue to potential political advantage?
126 not 122.
122. Ralph: “All she has to do is prove that Burnham defamed her…”
Only if she can prove that she didn’t ‘melt’ Davis’ heart.
She hasn’t even denied it, let alone proved it.
126. If it isn’t defamation, it is very close indeed to it. The best one can say is that Burnham’s remarks were deeply insulting and improper. And the very the least that should happen is that makes a full apology.
His failure to do so again shows what a cowardly bunch of yobs New Labour are.
132: Burnham is the one that would have to prove his innuendo not her.
122 and (unsurprisingly) 132 -
“the common law of libel contains a kind of reverse-onus feature: a defamatory statement is presumed to be false unless the defendant can prove its truth.”
@132:
“Only if she can prove that she didn’t ‘melt’ Davis’ heart. “
Oh dear, Gabble seems to have gone shocking again. Can somebody try turning him off and on again?
129. Ralph: “Burnham used innuendo which implied, or at least seemed to imply, she and Davis were sleeping with each other.”
So, in your opinion, for ‘heart-melting’ we should read ’shagging’?
135 Ah but Andy Burnham will there is court fresh faced and innocent, fluttering those eyelashes and trembling his lips, what a hard hearted jury it would be to find against him….
129 - Serious question: Did any reasonable person, on hearing or reading Burnham’s comments, take from that that he was accusing them of having an affair (which would surely be one of the most shocking revelations of the year)?
I don’t think a single person actually came to that conclusion - any more than describing Blair as a poodle led people to think he actually belonged to the canine species.
There are three complaints here - one that he defamed her (which I cannot seriously believe), the other that his joke was in poor taste (possibly, but compared to Hague’s wonderful address to the Hosue abuot the EU presidency “the PM’s slack jaw dropping to the table…” etc etc) and/or sexist, and the third that this is part of a smear campaign.
The second has some merit, though is a judgement of taste. The first and third seem to me to be way outside of a reasonable judgement on this issue.
correction “will be there in court”
132 - No, with innuendos you have to read them neither overly suspiciously nor (as you have) ridiculously naively.
There are some interesting legal questions here.
To defame somebody, you have to lower people in the eyes of right thinking members of society generally (e.g. to take a famous case, it is not defamatory to the victim to say somebody has been a victim of rape).
As I read the statement, it implies Davis is an emotionally fragile man who formed an inappropriate emotional attachment - it defames Davis rather than Chakrabati if anyone.
Even if it implies they were in love, I am not totally sure it is defamatory to say that - does “adultery in the heart” lower you in the eyes of right thinking members of society these days?
139 - It’s the conjunction of the words that lead to that effect, on its own it might be seen to be mischievous but the link between that and political expediency makes it look like a smear.
85: yeah, neither is widely known here, but you can often see their prices feed through to betfair. Pinnacle is particularly influential in tennis markets because they take high stakes, and have 102% prices (on every sport actually). While that can be matched elsewhere on football (188bet, mansion, canbet, bet365 for asians), and particularly for the american sports, in tennis afaicr they’re the lowest juice around by a fair distance.
5dimes have very good reload bonuses, but are a bit more focused on recreational punters, allbeit high stakes ones (eg to earn $500 bonus you’re talking >$10k wagered). If they classify you as a professional or an arber, they’ll ban you
(as will all British bookies, it’s not that unusual). They’re not worth it for most British punters, because they don’t do GBP accounts.
You can see an overview of prices here:
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/tennis/atp-wimbledon/men%27s-winner
I think 5dimes and most american-facing bookies aren’t included as standard, you may need a aubscription for that.
SBR = sportsbookreview, who are very influential. A good/bad rating from them has a serious effect on bookie business, and they use this to deal with peoples’ complaints (usually quite effectively, as the bad publicity of a SBR downgrade is worth far more than paying someone). Very useful if you come across a bookie you don’t know.
#25 Anthony - agree with you on ex-directory - there are a couple of other issues though - distribution of CLI service and the likelyhood of answering a number witheld or unrecognised telephone number.
Also distribution of phone numbers is no longer geographic, not sure if that’s relied on, but I have an 0207 number which can ring anywhere in the world.
139 - As I say above, I personally read it as saying Davis had formed an inappropriate emotional attachment. Unrequited love, if you like. That might defame Davis (although I am not at all sure it would actually for the reasons mentioned) but I struggle to see how it says anything about Chakrabati other than that she is the sort of people with whom people might fall in love, which is not defamatory.
127. I won’t, because what he was saying was ridiculous. I never disputed his single fact.
136
much better to leave Gabble on permanent standby!
139 Morus, the insinuation made was in my view deliberate, and intended to smear. The weasel non-apology “IF I have…IF any hurt…” tends to indicate he did intend, as you said earlier if you had inadvertently insulted someone your reaction would have been a fulsome apology, his wasn’t (the libel threat was some time later).
Press diary pieces are full of nudge nudge language fully signposting the reader to an improper conclusion, using language “late-night”"heart melting” was meant to infer more than was stated.
Just write a nice letter saying “I am sorry that my article caused offence, it wasn’t my intention to infer anything other than….” leave out the “if” words.
132 This is all reminiscent of the Livingstone concentration guard statement.
The sensible thing for Ken to have done was offer a generous apology — he didn’t, and he lost votes as a consequence. Votes in the end he needed.
The sensible thing for Burnham to do is to offer a generous apology for what was a silly and ill-thought remark. A political party (especially New Labour right at the moment) needs votes and should not be in the business of needlessly insulting people.
The Tories here are not doubt overjoyed that Little Gabble doesn’t understand even this.
139 Blair as poodle: he did have a rather strangely styld haircut some times…..
re 143. please do not use other odds comparison sites on here - our link with Bestbetting is a key revenue source to keep the site going.
the men’s winner link is here - http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/tennis/atp-wimbledon/men%27s-winner
I’d love someone to take this government to coutry and force them to account for the smears and generally bullying attitude. Ever since New Labour’s rise to power they have had far too much of it when it comes to attacking and smearing people. Remember poor Dr Kelly? And what about that 90 years old woman they tried to say was a racist, just because she didn’t get the hospital treatment she deserved. And there was a Paddington train crash survivors. On and on its gone for bloody years.
Frankly, they’re luckey they haven’t ended up in court years ago for the way they have behaved!
re 132 - your understanding of the law of defamation is limited.
If the words themselves are defamatory then the person who wrote/said/published them has only two real defences. These are justification (i.e. it is true) or it is privileged which only applies to things said in court or parliament.
What this does do is keep the DD story in the news and that is absolutely critical to him.
Gabble - there were suggestions at the party last night that you are in fact a Labour MP. One or two names were being bandied about. Can you enlighten us?
139: I tend to read it more as an attack on Davis as James suggests or at worse Burnham intended to smear Davis, and went that little bit to far. That said I do see how a reasonable person could see it in the way Shami suggests.
I’d love someone to take this government to court and force them to account for their smears and generally bullying attitude. Ever since New Labour’s rise to power they have had far too much of it when it comes to attacking and smearing people. Remember poor Dr Kelly? And what about that 90 year old woman they tried to say was a racist, just because she didn’t get the hospital treatment she deserved? And there was a Paddington train crash survivors. On and on its gone for bloody years….
Frankly, they’re luckey they haven’t ended up in court years ago for the way they have behaved!
re 139. To suggest that someone is having an affair has been accepted as being defamatory in case after case.
Every University has a Lab/Lib MP?
The University of Surrey in Guildford doesn’t.
Portsmouth and Southampton soon to follow suit.
148 - I am astonished that anyone thinks it was insinuating any sort of romantic link at all! There’s a lot of clever people here reading a rhetorical device and saying “that could be interpreted as slander if…”.
Burnham is a pratt, and should apologise, but I return to my questions:
Who actually thought that they were having an affair/whatever, as a result of this speech?
Who honestly thinks it *more likely* that Burnham was alluding to a non-existent affair in order to smear the former Shadow Home Secretary, than employing a basic rhetorical device (mockery, and personalising the siren voice of unfettered civil Liberties by making that voice synonymous with Shami Chakrabarti)?
I know we get cynical sometimes, and that Labour have been engaged in some awful smears, but does this really sound like one of them?
130 - No.
The hospital issue only came to light when the Chair and former Chair of the Save the Townlands Hospital Campaign reacted to the Conservative candidate’s campaign leaflets.
Evan Rennard doesn’t have that effective a crystal ball.
[MODERATED..]
155 - You are right - and how anyone can say this is in that league, or even related, is beyond me?
This just serves to confuse what a real smear is…
153 — if that’s true re: Gabble, in a million years there’ll never be a better reason not to vote Labour.
“Did any reasonable person, on hearing or reading Burnham’s comments, take from that that he was accusing them of having an affair (which would surely be one of the most shocking revelations of the year)?”
I don’t think he seriously believes they are having an affair. But, I think he was implying it, as a way of teasing them.
108 It was the comments about another religion I thought quite hard core, and something the Vatican would certainly not approve of I think.
153 - Defamation is not my field but I believe there are other defences - i.e. “qualified privilege” and “fair comment” - the latter is of particular importance for newspapers.
This all feels over-the-top but Burnham would be well advised to backpeddle on this one and make his apology entirely without reservation or qualification.
160, whether you consider his words libellous or not, they’ve hardly enhanced his reputation.
Chakrabarti can be overly earnest (and bloody annoying) but her stance on 42 days is spot on. I also cannot see how you consider her a greater threat to freedom than the continuing dismemberment of habeas corpus.
157. Canterbury as well, surely?
153. Mike Smithson: “Gabble - there were suggestions at the party last night that you are in fact a Labour MP. One or two names were being bandied about. Can you enlighten us?”
Your opinion of Labour MPs is even worse than I thought.
I find the misogynist bile emnating from Crosby disgusting.
160 Can’t you shut up already. You’re turning into Ave it.
163 - The teasing, and the tone, are key here.
Do you think he hoped that other people would draw that conclusion? If so, would he not have been a little less dramatic?
If he had written “David Davis is a recent convert to civil liberties, no doubt as a result of meeting late at night with Shami Chakribarti”, I would accept that this was a smear, but he was clearly writing in jest, painting a ridiculous figure of Davis as a man in a mid-life crisis.
It was mean-spirited, as was Hague about Brown on the EU President, but not a smear.
“Your opinion of Labour MPs is even worse than I thought.”
It is not possible to have too bad an opinion of Labour MPs — or their apologists.
@169:
I find the everything emanating from RodCrosby disgusting.
@170:
Oi! Don’t smear Ave It like that.
169: misogynist: a man who hates women almost as much as they hate each other….
Bet you know plenty of Jewish jokes too.
153 - fair comment is a separate and fairly common defence too (e.g. it may be false that Davis is emotionally fragile but may be a fair comment for Burnham to make or imply based on true facts in the public domain).
157 - that was a parody post based on Sean’s transparent fishing for a fight on the issue of IQ and voting. I don’t doubt there are several university towns with Tory MPs.
168 / 153 Careful Mike, in these litigious times Gabble might think there could be case for defamation
….only of course if untrue
166. Morris Dancer: “Chakrabarti can be overly earnest (and bloody annoying) but her stance on 42 days is spot on.”
Supporting someone who believes in 28 days when you believe in 2?
Burnham had a point - that’s what really stung Chazza.
175: ‘Bet you know plenty of Jewish jokes too’
The Miliband brothers, and Lord Levy.
@179:
For David Milliband to be Jewish, he’d have to be human.
Frankly, his face says otherwise.
158. Yes, it does.
And one aspect that no-one has mentioned yet - to some racial/religious groups the implication that one is indulging in a leg-over is taken very seriously indeed. Mere rumour is enough to result in ostracism (or worse). Burnham is an idiot, even if he meant it as a joke - which I don’t believe.
160. Bumptious and Ludicrous - Never have two words better described yourself Rodders!
178, they both dislike ID cards, the extension to 42 days, excessive CCTV and the innocent being on the DNA database. It is less than shocking that they are in agreement over Davis’ position on liberties.
Burnham has no point, and he managed to cock up having no point so much he’s being threatened with court action.
176. bizarrely its not far off though
158.”148 - I am astonished that anyone thinks it was insinuating any sort of romantic link at all! There’s a lot of clever people here reading a rhetorical device and saying “that could be interpreted as slander if…”.
Morus, the meaning was pretty clear to MP’s who saw it before most of us on PB.com, that’s when the story gained traction in the press and the blogsphere.
Maybe its a women thing, but I thought what he was implying was pretty clear with his particular use of words, but I also think that it will have touched a nerve with women more than men.
And to be honest, if his words had not been so clearly open to the wrong interpretation it would not have got a front page or the column inches in most of the newspapers today.
New Rasmusen Polls for New Hampshire and Nevada :
New Hampshire
McCain 39% .. Obama 50%
Nevada
McCain 45% .. Obama 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election
Rod now seems to simply be trying to post the most offensive remarks possible, perhaps hoping Mike will moderate him and thus allow him to indulge his burgeoning victim complex even further.
185. isn’t this whole thing just about his turn of phrase? to me its obviously a joke, and not defamatory in any way, others seem to understand it quite differently, if this board is to be believed.
Plenty of votes for Davis in this, I’ll bet…
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hlKROJTPiSmgnm8zdTynVonYULYA
@187:
He should consider himself lucky he didn’t hear what we were saying about him last night…
184 - But probably mainly in the sense that universities tend to be in urban areas and there are few Tory urban areas.
Academics perhaps tend to be disproportionately liberal leaning though and it helps explain Oxford West, Cambridge, Bristol West etc being Lib Dem. But I am not sure I am ludicrously proud of the fact - academics are not obviously more savvy or pleasant people than other people generally so it proves nothing.
WHat Gabble and others on here fail to grasp is that one does not have to be in absolute agreement with another person on every aspect of their political outlook to share a platform on a matter on which they are united. Even if Shami does believe in two days (good for her)while David is prepared to accept 28, that does not stop them from finding common cause in resisting 42 days.
Moreover, given Shami’s mission at the head of Liberty, it makes perfect sense for her to work closely with high profile politicians who are exploring the parameters of a liberal outlook in an increasingly illiberal political climate. How could she possibly persuade anyone of her/Liberty’s view point if she only preached, or indeed spoke, to the converted?
Shami has been a terrific head of Liberty. She has engaged a new generation of people and detached Liberty from the leftist tag it had in Harman’s days, allowing it to attract a broader and more intellectually curious range of support.
While I pretty much agree with Morus’ analysis of this situation, an apology is in order here. Hopefully then the matter can rest.
Gabble and others do themselves no credit by piling in on Shami on this point.
Labour politicians have entered the Millwall phase of decline - “everybody hates us and we don’t care”.
How else to explain the incredible statements from Tom Harris and now Harman turning on Liberty.
This is the sort of thing that “contaminated” our brand for over a decade.
Guido’s Friday Caption photo today is a good one
http://www.order-order.com/2008/06/friday-caption-contest_20.html
193 Exactly correct. Everyone does hate them and they dont care. 22 months of this sh1t left……… disgraceful.
185 - Being ambiguous isn’t being libellous though. You need to prove the statement is libellous on the most reasonable interpretation not every conceivable interpretation. It was a snide, unchivalrous bit of innuendo and she is right to be annoyed. But no more than that in my view. It would be a shame and contrary to freedom of speech if libel law was even more regularly turned on anyone who was “bang out of order”.
New SUSA Poll for Iowa :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=851c4ef8-c6f2-499a-8d2f-bafdb824728b
197 - What are your views on the VP race for either candidate? I dont know how in depth you are following this
197 - Is it just me or are Rasmussen polls consistently good for McCain and poor for Obama (relatively)? If this is so has it always been the case or just the polls I’ve been seeing lately? I’ve really not followed the track record of US pollsters at all I’m afraid.
192 - What do you think of the more subtle criticism of Shami that her rush to libel law is rather jarring given that very strict interpretation of libel law inhibits free speech (a key issue for Liberty)?
I agree with you about her work - really impressed by her as head of Liberty and she has been a good champion for an agenda I believe in. But I do find the rush to libel troubling.
192. Well said!
@192:
Gabble does himself no credit by continuing to draw breath. Assuming he needs to, of course.
199 - I think the main problem is due to voter registration (i.e their affiliation). I am afraid I can’t go further than that - my knowledge on the subject is pretty limited
195. Stll, console yourself with the knowlage that the worse things get, the heavier Labour’s defeat will be. You never know, things may get so terrible in the next two years that Labour faces a 1924 style rout!
191 Academics and university workers are definitely Left, these days (rather the reverse, prior to the Sixties). Students are unpopular neighbours, and quite a lot of middle class families will move out of a particular district if students become numerous there, which undermines the Conservative vote there. So, the Conservatives often struggle in an area that’s dominated by a University - and quite often, such areas also contain lots of public sector workers which pushes them leftwards.
That said, quite a lot of London University falls within Conservative seats, as does Hertfordshire University, and there are other Universities in seats where the Conservatives are competitive, like Selby, Warwick & Leamington, Exeter, Reading West.
Can you have a “turn of phrase” when writing a magazine article? Don’t they have sub-editors any more.
204 Pleasure deferred is pleasure enhanced.
206. It was an interview.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Gabble was a parliamentary assistant to a Labour MP. He often seems to come on here with a certain “line to take” (eg. the whole “why do you feel so strongly about 42 days when you supported 28 days?” line) moments before a backbench Labour MP appears on BBC/Sky parroting the same line.
208 - apologies.
199 Neil. Some slightly better but todays NH poll is very poor for McCain.
198 Rob. For Obama, Webb, Nunn and Edwards seem to be on most lists and then there’s the elephant in the room !!!! …. btw she’s campaigning with Obama next week.
As for McCain, Romney appears to have lost some favour and Crist and Jindal moving up.
Both markets are still pretty open and I don’t rule out both candidates springing a total surprise.
191. Aren’t there also a disproportionately high number of football grounds in non-Tory constituencies?
192. I don’t get this “why support Davis against 42 days when he supported 28 days?” argument.
I suspect many MPs who voted for a reduction in the abortion limit from 24 to 22 weeks didn’t “support” 22 weeks - they wanted a total ban, but 22 weeks was what was on offer at the time.
209. alex: “eg. the whole “why do you feel so strongly about 42 days when you supported 28 days?” line”
Nigel Farage skewered Davis on QT last night with the same line - much to the audience’s delight.
the “unpopular neighbours” argument might be stronger between wards but cannot possibly apply at constituency level.
211 - Yeah noticed that they were to campaign together, erhaps in an attempt to unify the two ‘camps’ of the democratic voter base, as opposed to a warm up for the dream ticket that is much-salivated over. I would imagine Obama would want to pick someone with as little baggage as possible, but that has the downside of them being less known.
THe waiting is the worst part :p
200 There wasn’t a rush to libel, just a threat to raise a writ if a written apology from Burnham was not forthcoming after such had been requested the night before to no response. Burnham hasn’t apologised, a spokesman for the Department of Culture, Media and Sport said he had not meant any offence.
“An interpretation has been placed on Andy’s remarks that he did not intend. His comments related to politics and nothing else. He regrets if any personal offence has been caused.”
Just write a letter Andy.
205 - I know you are an Exeter fan, Sean, and credit to you (I remember the “Fear for Exeter” talk a while ago). But Tories aren’t that competitive, and somewhat less in the area closest to the university than elsewhere (except Pennsylvania but that has some but not that many academics and more management-type suburbanites).
212. voting for 28 days was a vote for quadrupling the limit
212 It’s Gabble MacShane’s line - not sure if MacShane thought it up or took it from Gabble or….
@213:
Gabble, I know you’ve mentioned this event three times now, with Davis being reduced to a wretched tear-and-snot encrusted laughing stock in front of a taunting, braying tyranny-loving Labour audience, but IT DIDN’T HAPPEN.
No matter how many times you mention it, IT WILL CONTINUE TO NOT HAVE HAPPENED.
213 - I don’t know what happened on Question Time, but that is irrelevant to the post (and doesn’t stop it being a nonsense argument anyway - as I’ve said before the only reasonable position for anyone arguing in such a way is to support indefinite detention - which so far you are the only person to have so done).
218 - No it wasn’t. The existing limit was 14 days, and the vote for 28 was a compromise to prevent the possibility of the Commons voting for 60.
212 - Yes and for the same reason. It used to be a popular question amongst nerds to name the footy stadiums in Tory seats. Some were easy (Wycombe, Bournemouth etc) and some were based on the grounds being out of town and hence impossible for all but anoraks. There are presumably more now than pre-2005.
207. Yes. That night in 2010 when Labour are swept away will be utterly delicious. Truely a moment worth savouring. I’ll have the champagne on ice!
Splitting a message up, can’t find the bit that’s triggering the filter. Numbered for ease of piecing them back together!
190 - Don’t worry, he was getting ridiculed on here too at the time.
Now that the resident tinpot fascist has been moderated (see above) he, quite hilariously, has no argument that his liberties are being impinged.
By the way, is it possible to defame a poster by suggesting that they are a labour MP (or in fact they are any sort of MP)?
222. either way the comparison to abortion limit does not apply
Part deux.
Which all reminds me of somebody, Larry Sinclair the Obama smearer. I don’t know if you’ve been following this but it’s getting more and more amazing to behold.
Having paid for, and arranged for himself, to speak at the National Press Club he was seen to be making a quick exit and was subsequently arrested on charges of deception (for other matters).
Meanwhile, regarding his legal team -
“a kilted lawyer (with a suspended license) named Montgomery Blair Sibley…..informed those assembled that his preferences in dress were arrived at as a way to secure comfort for his unusually large sexual organs. “I don’t know why men wear pants,” he said with a p0ker face. “It’s a function of male genitalia. If you’re size normal or smaller, you’re probably comfortable with [pants]. … Those at the other end of the spectrum find them quite confining.”
Afternoon, all.
First off - many thanks to Peter the Punter et al for organizing a great night. Very much enjoyed it, especially finding out some of the stories behind the posters here.
On the MORI finding - interesting, but I’m not sure if it’s a permanent thing. There are plausible scenarios where many “public sector workers” (which include a wide range of careers - police, teachers, military, GPs, library workers spring to mind pretty quickly and I’m not sure that all of them have a definite tinge in any direction or are unusually hard to shift from the red column) might not correlate to an overstated Labour vote. I guess we’ll simply have to wait and see how it performs.
On the Labour tactics for H&H - on reflection, I think that they made the wrong choice tactically. As well as giving traction to the “Bottler” meme, it’s arguable that fighting it wouldn’t have much downside for them. Without the Lib Dems standing, they’d have a really good chance of improving the vote share, even in the current climate. Any improvement could be spun as “yeah, Davis won - but it’s a Tory safe seat, dont ya know. And we’ve still improved - despite really bad polls. Guess that must mean that there is a popular support for 42 days …”. They could also have broadened the campaign to whatever they wanted to campaign on (although I’m blank on what that could be, to be fair … :))
Oh, and Gabble: Shami Chakrabati would, if she were an MP, almost certainly have voted for 28 days. Because the alternative was a larger number. Bear in mind that every single Lib Dem MP voted in the same lobby as Davis for that vote. As did a lot of Labour rebels (including Bob Marshall Andrews, of whom you asked a couple of days ago whether he’d support Davis due to the 28 day vote).
If Farage did come out with that “so why did you vote for 28 days?” line last night, Davis should have responded “because I really didn’t like the 90 day alternative, of course!”
I think Gabble has tongue firmly in cheek. I think he is genuinely Labour but with more of a sense of humour than people here imagine - plays the part pretty well.
@225:
Maybe. I can’t help noticing that Gabble seems to be resolutely failing to deny that he is who we suspect he is.
Not that I’ll believe him even if he does deny it mind. Which I realise doesn’t give him much of a chance.
re 219. Yes Gabble does seem to have a lot of lines in common with my old BBC and NUJ colleague, Dennis MacShane.
211 I think Jindal won’t be it because of 1 his age and 2 I think the GOP hierarchy see him as their real Ace in the pocket for a better year and are grooming him for 2016 or at a pinch 2012 if a Democratic President makes a hash of it. McCain could still pick him but I’m not sure the GOP elders would be so happy to send their best hope into battle so early in such a difficult GOP year.
192 - James. That’s a difficult question.
I agree that it would jar if the action was being brought to shut down legitimate criticism or to take advantage of the claimant friendly regime to stop what is essentially a truthful but unprovable allegation. From what we know I don’t think this case falls into either category.
It would also be more problematic if she had set out a consistently hard line on free speech matters - like the Liberty of old. While I’ll confess I don’t know all of her past musings on the subject. having seen her in action in a variety of forums over the years I would be surprised if she has not always advocated a balanced approach, recognising that free speech has some limits. In other words, I don’t think the charge of hypocracy sticks (and it cartainly doesn’t stick just by virtue of her job title).
All that said, I prefer a low key, consensual approach and I think this could have been netter handled by all parties.
228. Andy Cooke: “If Farage did come out with that “so why did you vote for 28 days?” line last night, Davis should have responded “because I really didn’t like the 90 day alternative, of course!””
Davis said that he agreed with 28 days because there was evidence to support it - no mention of a compromise on 90 days. That’s just wishful thinking on your part.
Anyway as has been said numerous times, the point about Davis’ decision, is it is about the ongoing erosion of British liberties, an erosion which is being done on an almost casual basis, and certainly not on the basis of evidence. 42 days was symbolic, not because it was 42 days, but because it was absolutely passed for the worst of reasons - so that the Irish could have more money.
He is not saying that EVERY restriction on civil liberties is bad (especially if the legislation is temporary) - not that every CCTV camera is superfluous, every extension on terrorist detention is wrong, every use of RIPA in local government is “a power trip by petty bureaucrats”… But that there needs to be an appreciation when each decision is taken of what we are losing, that it is not enough to simply invoke the “precautionary principle” in justification. There needs to be hard evidence, and restrictions should never be imposed without severe regret that they are necessary.
And the most powerful argument about Habeas Corpus etc is that it still applies in Zimbabwe, and is arguably the only thing that has stood in Mugabe’s way from total annihilation of the opposition. Just imagine what he could do if he had the laws available in this country!
@232:
What happens to the GOP nom if McCain falls before November, either due to unwellness or some manner of total existence failure?
Romney?
217 Plenty of students lived in Pennsylvania when I was at Exeter, although there was also a lot of private housing being built on the outskirts. I imagine the ward boundaries may have altered as well. St. Davids which covered most of the University (I don’t know about current boundaries) is certainly solid Lib Dem. Duryard, (which didn’t exist as a ward in my time) has one Conservative councillor, and presumably has a large student population. Students lived all over Exeter, but I’d agree that places like Topsham, St. Leonard’s, and Polsloe have a smaller than average proportion.
199 - One reason and one reason only why Rasmussen are good for McCain, they using historical party ID breakdowns so any attempts to increase voter registration, or indeed to pick up the slide to greater ID numbers for democrats are not picked up, not important in some states where little has been done but important where the map is being stretched by either candidate.
@234:
All of which is to say you and Davis are in agreement that there is *no* evidence for 42 days and never was.
237 - Hello fellow Exeter alumnus
I think the student wards in Exeter have been slowly getting more and more blue.
Sorry, 233 was aimed at 200 and spelt very poorly.
235. alex: “42 days was symbolic, not because it was 42 days, but because it was absolutely passed for the worst of reasons - so that the Irish could have more money.”
LOL
232 - Jindal’s views are really quite scarily right wing.
O/T Good assessment of Obama in the NY Times.
No naivety,for sure, but an appalling level of insincerity from the mighty messiah of “change”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/opinion/20brooks.html?em&ex=1214107200&en=98dbf7f8bae1fe38&ei=5087%0A
233 - I just have a bee in my bonnet over libel and think Liberty probably should be more active in supporting its liberalisation. I wouldn’t go so far as to accuse her of hypocrisy. As I say, I can totally see why she felt offended. But on reflection, the lawyer in her might consider that libel laws should really prevent serious and irreparable damage to reputation rather than merely protecting people’s feelings.
239. There is no evidence to support any maximum limit.
We should be concentrating on minimising the period of detention rather than posturing over meaningless maximum limits.
234, Gabble:
David Davis: “The hon. Gentleman makes a very good point. On Second Reading, I said that I did not really see an argument to go beyond 14 days, and one of the fears was that locking people up for a month is still harmful. The only reason that I would go to 28 days is that the Home Secretary has given an undertaking that the powers will be used extremely sparingly. The trouble with 90 days is that even one mistake will be a disaster. The hon. Gentleman is right that it is a judgment call, but in the balance between liberty and security, this country should always err on the side of liberty.”
He doesn’t like 28 days, but it’s a compromise to prevent the Government going further (in the case where it was adopted, much further). Now the Government are welshing on the compromise, trying a salami-slice extension, and he’s had enough.
192. Re Chakrabati and Liberty. She has indeed done well to distance the organisation from Labour - in the past it was little more than a socialist front organisation.
But the odd thing is that Labour should ever have been associated with the organisation. Labour has stood for many things during its history, but ‘liberty’ is certainly not one of them.
On the contrary, it’s fair to say that the party of the closed shop, intimidation of workers through secondary picketing (and worse), the gleeful extension of rationing after the war, sky-high taxation, exchange controls, and a slavish admiration of the Soviet Union has been consistently the most illiberal force in British politics since well before WWII.
The recent demarche into semi-fascist authoritarian poses on law and order, ID cards and employment/immigration issues has only added a new dimension to this sorry history.
219&231.I thought that the very name Gabble was a give away? I have even wondered a couple of times if he was Dennis McShane but thought I was just being plain daft!
I teased him about walking and sounding like a duck a couple of days ago because one of his posts that day sounded just like the Labour rebuttal line that listening to the news must have been texted to all the PLP….
Mike, didn’t you once say that you thought that there was a least 5/6 other MP’s posting occasionally anonymously on here besides Nick and Stewart?
240 I was there from 1985-1988. It turns out that I was a contemporary of JK Rowling (not that I can recall ever having met her). St. Davids voted Conservative back in those days. In fact, the student body was generally more right wing than most.
247.Spot on Andy.
247. Andy Cooke: “He doesn’t like 28 days,…”
He does now!
I imagine this will lead to a review of your support for Davis - possibly you will now actively oppose him?
237 - I lived and campaigned in Pennsylvania in the past. At the time, there was a chunk of student accommodation at the city side towards the football ground but it wasn’t really Pennsylvania as anyone living there would define it. Pennsylvania “proper” had some students but not a lot. It had more academics but was dominated by managerial types.
240 - Exeter students have long been considered pretty Tory comparatively. It’s a stereotype but not totally bogus that it attracted generally better off students who wanted to go to a good university and couldn’t get to Oxbridge. Car ownership was pretty high. But like everywhere, the student vote is somewhat overstated as a lot don’t bother. It is the staff who are key really.
252 - “Would you like to be beaten about the head with a pointy stick or have your gonads encased in ice?”
“Well if that’s the choice I’ll go with the gonads then”.
243 No more than Jeb or W’s though I think and like them he has a ’sunny’ disposition Americans like possibly.
244 Did any hacks dare to ask your man about the Canard Enchaine Irish comments attributable to him.
246 - Parkinson’s Law is the best evidence. Work expands to fill the time available for its completion. In a nutshell, that’s why maximums are absolutely crucial.
234: ‘…no mention of a compromise on 90 days. That’s just wishful thinking on your part.’
For fear that I was losing my mind and was imagining things, I just had a quick look again at Thursday’s QT. As I thought, DD does mention the 28 days as being a compromise on the original 90 days proposal. You shouldn’t play games with people’s sanity.
Apolgies this fell right at end of previous thread
19.Back on thread topic.Agree that labour will lose deposit expect c 3% of vote.
Interesting point on how result will be covered.
Most likely result seems to be
Tories c 50% (c-4% share) national swing of +10% less loss of Boris personal vote c 7%,less a little leakage to UKIP and Lib Dems.
Labour as above 3%.(-12%)
Lib Dems c 35% (+9%)(Some of Boris personal vote,plus some tactical Labour plus a little leakage from con.
Others 12% +6%(UKIP,Greens and Independents.
Turnout at Bromley was 40% would expect it to be nearer to 45% in Henley.
The key figures would therefore roughly be
Con Vote 15,500 (-9400)
Lib Vote 10,500 (-1500)
Majority 5,000 (-7900)
How would sucha result be reported?
In the Tory press “Tories easily hold Henley (justifcation -only a smalldrop in Tory vote.)
In the non Tory press “Lib Dems slash tory majority in Henley”(justication majority more than halved)
by rogerh June 20th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
255 - Jindal believes that there should be no abortion, yes that’s right, not even in the case of rape or endangerment to the woman.
Put him on a ticket and watch the women’s vote drift away alarmingly.
That’s even before you get to intelligent design and forced exorcism….
237, 240 - are those who went to Exeter University known as Exonians? I only ask as I am also an Exonian but not from Exeter University, or Devon in any way.
Brunel University is a Tory seat (Uxbridge).
SeanT’s point is still completely idiotic however, and I don’t think he truly believes it.
235. alex: “42 days was symbolic, not because it was 42 days, but because it was absolutely passed for the worst of reasons - so that the Irish could have more money.”
Surely so that the British could have more money - it was the DUP after all
260, Exonian sounds very Star Warsish. Of course, a Leeds man is called a Loiner. Brimming with virility we are:p
Going back a bit…
127. fitaloon: Thanks to James who did apologise unlike Mr Burnham who came out with a “Clarifying Statement” which of course didn’t.
I’m reminded, of course, of Sir Humphrey:
“Prime Minister, in government, a Clarification is not to make things clear. It’s to put you in the clear.”
258 - looks a likely prediction. My wife drove up to Henley today to go to Tesco. On the run in there are a lot of blue posters in fields and hedgerows.
No idea how the main part of the town, which does include a council estate, will vote. And remember that about 85% of the electorate does not live in the town of Henley.
261 - Reading University lies in Reading East, which is Conservative.
252 BBC iPlayer is a great resource. After a very good discussion starting at around 15 minutes in, with a bit of laughter over The Mad Cow’s name & nothing to do with DD, Nigel Farage intervenes at around 20 and a half minutes. There is no laughter, nothing like your description.
I don’t think you saw it.
What is annoying is that Dimbleby doesn’t allow Davis to explain the 28 days vote. He says he supported it because a decision had to be made quickly because the Police advice was they needed more than 14 days so rather than 90 they went for 28. He then starts to explain that, while he continues to support 28 days that is only under present rules against intercept and other evidence and indications are that his answer would be to a shorter time, possibly as short as in the US, but we never find out because he is continually interrupted by Dimbleby.
Dimbleby’s fear of giving him a platform robs the audience of an explanation and IMHO is directly against the BBCs Mission to Explain. A shame because the previous discussion, particularly Jerry Springer’s astonishment that the basic constitutional liberties are subject to the whims of here today gone tomorrow politicians chasing votes, was a powerful demonstration of Question Time at its best.
Responding to Conservative complaints about Liberal Democrat literature in the Henley by-election, Liberal Democrat Chief Executive, Lord Rennard said:
“The Conservatives seem to be running scared in what used to be a very safe Conservative seat. It is strange that the Conservative Party is arguing about the design of campaign literature – rather than the political arguments contained within it.
“It is a particularly odd criticism given the Conservatives posted a publication in an almost identical format to the constituency just two weeks ago. It is an insult to the intelligence of the voters to suggest that they were misled by the format of these magazines.
“In relation to the Henley Townlands hospital campaign, we have merely repeated claims by the independent hospital campaigners that they were unaware of any support from the Conservative Party candidate.
“The Conservative campaign appears to be in trouble and their candidate has so far failed to answer all the questions posed about his close links to those lobbying for development.”
Any jury would laugh at Chakrabarti. She has clearly left no stone unturned to disseminate the “libel” as widely as possible for political reasons…
262 - Great Britain and Northern Ireland
267 one correction - about 28 and a half minutes in.
266. I went to Reading Univerity. A contemporary of Mark Prisk MP. Gerry Vaughan was the MP then, when it was in Reading South.
270. Yes but the DUP and most unionists would still describe themselves as British.
273 - They would also describe themselves as Irish.
269. Rod - how about setting up a new website called ‘I hate everyone’ on which to set out your ‘views’…
274. A lot of unionists would never use that description about themselves.
267. Ted.
Absolutely. I finally caught up with QT on iPlayer this afternoon - too busy at work to watch it last night - and Gabble’s interpretation of events is (I was shocked - shocked! I tell you) significantly at variance with reality.
Davis could have handled it better, but then again Dimbleby never gave him the chance.
And would they? They would say that they swear allegiance to the British Crown, and are British subjects, but would they describe themselves as “British”?
265- SBS- what a depressing car journey having to drive through rural white england proudly displaying its Tory credentials.
267 - Dimbleby was a disgrace, constantly interrupting and speaking over Davies and Farage (but allowing Farage to interrupt and shout down Davies). Harry Potter got a clear run, but the former mayor of Cincinatti seemed to be treated as the source of all wisdom.
269. And what was the point or the ridiculous [CC:The Prime Minister] when sending her empty threats to Burnham? [sender: one of the 10 people who run Britain, and don't you ever forget it]
Her tyrannical pomposity knows no bounds…
274 - When Ali G met Sammy Wilson:
Ali: “So is you Irish?”
Sammy: “No, I’m British.”
Ali: “So is you on here on holiday?”
But more seriously we should be trying to respect everyone’s identity in Northern Ireland. Most unionists I know have no problems with being called Irish - indeed when we watch England matches they’d be insulted to be excluded from the description.
277 He didn’t watch it so his interpretation was based on a post by a previously unknown poster saying Davis was being slaughtered and laughed at.
Davis was shown up on QT as the opportunist he undoubtedly is. Pleading the loss of habeas corpus at 42 days but not at 28.
Farage nailed him and the audience loved it.
268 - Future LibDem by-election tactics:
LibDem: “The Tory candidate eats children and personally strangles pandas”
Tory: “This is an outrageous slur, withdraw it immediately!”
LibDem: “Ah Ha, the Tories are running scared!”
252, Gabble,
“247. Andy Cooke: “He doesn’t like 28 days,…”
He does now!
I imagine this will lead to a review of your support for Davis - possibly you will now actively oppose him?”
I also support 28 days, you know.
Against any period longer than 28 days, that is. And that includes trying to salami-slice extras.
(Didn’t accept 90 days. Try 60.
Didn’t accept 60. Try 42)
If 42 had failed, I bet it would have been 35 next. Then 32. Then 30. Eventually, they’d have come out with the “It’s only a very little while longer. If 28 is okay, why not this one?”
So - as he’s provided statements on multiple occasions that his “support” for 28 days is on the cool side of lukewarm and a compromise to prevent more, why should I turn against him? Especially when he’s sacrficed his future “Big Four” job to make the case to a populace inveigled by the fear-mongering seduction of the “there’s no draconian measure too strong to use - it’s necessary to save you!” cry from an embattled, unpopular Government striving to present itself as “tough in your defence”.
Let’s turn it around. As the extra fourteen days is so minor in your (and other DD attackers) view - what genuine benefit could you see it giving a preparation to charge?
284 You so obviously didn’t watch it.
Are UKIP putting up a candidate in H&H then?
“Farage nailed him and the audience loved it.”
I think there could be another libel writ coming up if that is read from a certain angle.
289 - The fact that the audience was reported to have loved it would seem to preclude any more dubious interpretation of the “Farage nailed him” part
290 - No accounting for taste I suppose.
286. Andy Cooke: “Let’s turn it around. As the extra fourteen days is so minor in your (and other DD attackers) view - what genuine benefit could you see it giving a preparation to charge?”
I don’t support any arbitary maximum limit - it’s impossible to calculate and just gets moved if a breach looks likely.
Far better to let an independent judiciary set flexible time limits/tables on a case by case basis. They can protect the rights of the suspect and compel the police to conduct their investigations as thoroughly and speedily as possible.
Burnham not giving an inch on NorthWest tonight. “It was a political statement that I felt entitled to make. I have no further comment.”
Go, Andy, Go…
OMG that testicle Ed Balls has been in Norfolk today and is on the local news. Absolutely shocking. If only I had known where the prat had been today……….
290 As someone who supports the stand that DD has taken , I was rather disappointed with his performance on QT , Farage certainly stumped him with a question he should have been able to deadbat easily .
Royal Holloway is in a Conservative seat- Runnymede and Weybridge.
289 - Good one!
“When it comes to David Davis, he’s an unlikely champion of civil liberties and certainly when I was at Liberty, I did not support people who opposed the Human Rights Act and were in favour of the death penalty,” Harman told ITV News.
There wasn’t a Human Rights Act when Harman was in the NCCL which supported bans on political parties, having campaigned to ban Mosleys post war fascists and so called far right successor parties, working closely with the Communist Party and other far left organisations. It was a strong supporter of the closed shop when she was there, claiming that the rights of organised labour should take precedence over individual liberties, and IIRC campaigned against Thatcher’s Government making closed shops illegal.
Luckily now there are better people in Liberty, more concerned with civil and constitutional liberties than with socialist philosophy and supporting the workers revolution.
267.”Dimbleby’s fear of giving him a platform robs the audience of an explanation and IMHO is directly against the BBCs Mission to Explain. A shame because the previous discussion, particularly Jerry Springer’s astonishment that the basic constitutional liberties are subject to the whims of here today gone tomorrow politicians chasing votes, was a powerful demonstration of Question Time at its best.”
Ted, watching QT last night I thought that Dimbleby was rude and hectoring to Davis on more than one occasion. But then I read somewhere today that the broadcasters were having to rewrite the rules for this by election because there was no candidates for Labour or the Libdems and I thought that it explained his behaviour. But on the other hand, if you invite Davis on and allow a questions from the audience and comment from the other guests, its difficult not to give him the chance to respond. So I thought the couple of comments about not giving him a one man show or platform a tad unfair.
268.Countering the lies
“The rules that billboard adverts must tell the truth are actually suspended for political campaigns. This should not be. If the public cannot be misled about the quality of a toothpaste, nor should they be about the propositions of a government.”
297 Would that be the same Mosely of formula One fame that paid a 1million pound bribe to Labour? Now I am confused
Obama
the only politician of our lifetime who is underestimated because he’s too intelligent
US Presidential - Democratic VP Stakes
Interesting AP story in today’s papers:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1131ap_obama_veepstakes.html
Also, EJ Dionne has interesting column re: New Hampshire presidential voting prospects for November. Obama & McCain both popular, but Dionne thinks Obmama has an edge, in large measure because NH is trending Democratic. And the head of NH GOP says McCain is only hope for GOP in the Granite State this Fall.
295 Mark, I don’t think he was stumped I think he hadn’t thought through a pithy response so was unable to answer quickly.
From what I could gather, between Farage and Dimbleby’s crass interruptions, he had thought it through but his explanation was complicated. Seemed to be that 28 was better than 90, that if the rules on wire tap & other intelligence evidence and post-charge interrogation stood then police had a case in certain circumstances for longer than 14, however, having seen it in operation with half those held for 28 days being innocent, he would lean towards it’s reduction accompanied by changes to rules of evidence/post charge questioning.
Davis hasn’t got the gift of oratory, though allowed time and a subject that drives him he is good in presenting a logical case. A weakness in a politician but I thought he came across as a principled man.
And Ambinder is reviewing is General Election Map
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/the_general_election_map_2.php
“Tossups: Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Pennsylvania (21) Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Michigan (17) — 107 electoral votes”
Michelle Obama
The wife of the Democratic nominee presumptive appeared on “The View” yesterday, the morning TV show hosted by Barbara Walters & Whoopie Goldberg which is very popular with women.
Contrary to the stupid story on the BBC website (copied from Fox one way or another?) the big news was NOT Mrs O saying her husband was “pathetic” as what she said was “empathetic” as was made crystal clear as soon as she said it, by Whoopie G.
Intead, the REAL news (as reported by the NBC Today Show this AM in their first half hour, which is when people actully watch the show) was the summer dress worn by Michelle Obmama. A very nice off-the-rack garmet . . . that is now flying off the store shelves because women across the nation are buying it in amazing numbers.
Ever heard of an ice cream poll? Well, now looks like we’ve got a frock poll! And Obama appears to be winning.
But way to early to count out Cindy McCain!
301 - Dionne “NH is trending Democratic”
Ambinder: “I’m getting the sense from some NH Dems that the big liberal wave has crested there”
304– the video:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/06/michelle_obama_on_the_view.html
302. Davis is not a principled man.
Neither he or Cameron have been honest about their bust-up.
He made sure his only viable opposition was neutered before standing down.
And, he’s gathered around him a whole collection of ‘freedom loving’ misfits and nutters, none of whom either agree with him or eachother.
NH
538 has Obama at 79% chances of winning it; 21$ for Mac.
BTW, I laid McCain.Nomination at 1.04 yesterday, for 100$.
If McCain is not the nominee, I stand to make 2500$.
I think the chances that the GOP dump McCain, realizing that he can’t win in November, is higher that 4%.
302 Ted , It was probably a question that DD should have anticipated and had an answer ready rehearsed , no excuse really for a senior politician not to have done so .
303 - Ambinder saying that there’s no evidence that Georgia is in Obama’s grasp when today’s poll shows him just 1% behind tells you all you need to know about his analysis of the state of play.
303 - Personally think that the chattering classes are making a big mistake in their efforts to demean/denegrate David Davis and his by-election gambit.
Because it looks like the Great British Public has already decided that, on this issue and at this time, DD is a man of principle. The fact that he’s not a great debater is a POSTIVE contrast with smooth talking prevaractors such as Tony Blair.
Must say that anyone of any party with the time & wherewithall, who claims to be an outspoken defender of civil rights and individual liberties, who does NOT travel to H&H at some point to help out DD, is a fraud. And using DD’s past sins/contradictions/etc as cover only compounds the offense.
” ‘freedom loving’ misfits and nutters, ”
Keep making our job easier please, I know that labour is now a party that dislikes the idea of freedom but your Soviet-style pronouncements about the issue are a great comfort to us.
Any bets on the political awards next year? Politician of the year DD?
261. No, I do genuinely believe that leftwingers are, on the whole, less intelligent than rightwingers. I’m overegging the old pudding, of course, to get a rise out of the Trots, but I do believe it.
It just makes sense. The poor are, in most societies (apart from the absolutely hierarchical and the momentously religious/weird/racist/etc) stupider than the rich. If you are clever you end up less poor. Stands to reason.
Now if you are poor you are gonna vote for a party that desires equality above all else - so you get more from the rich. So you vote for the left.
Once you reach a certain level of wealth, through your own cleverness, you start to worry about giving it all away to the undeserving poor, so you turn to the right - out of selfishness.
Also, the richer and smarter you are, the more you worry about freedom rather than equality, because you can afford to. America is the great example here. Put it another way: liberty is to the right what equality is to the left. The right wants freedom, the left wants taxes. Twas ever thus.
There is, however, a subset of rich clever people who are leftwing - out of guilt at being so rich when others are poor, or out of a moral vanity - they want to appear unselfish while keeping the benefits of selfishness. The champagne socialists.
Nonetheless the basic truth abides. Rightwing people are richer and smarter and funnier and more interested in freedom, leftwing people tend to be poorer and stupider and more worthy and boring and interested in equality.
I don’t really think this is arguable.
It isn’t necessarily a case of more public workers being in the sample, therefore the poll is biased towards Labour - the causal direction might be the reverse - this is sometimes in academic circles called an ‘ecological fallacy’:
It could be that the sample is ‘too Labour’ for other reasons, and therefore as a result will include more public sector workers, as they are more inclined to Labour.
Availability and accessibility are the main problems, and there has at times been a cultural differential refusal rate (though not, I suspect, in the current political climate).
Conhome:
Despite being suspicious of Davis’ motives for causing the by-election, 51% to 24% of voters think Labour are wrong not to put up a candidate. Most would have been polled before the announcement but it was widely believed that Labour weren’t going to anyway. Even 48% of Labour voters agree. Click here for the full breakdown of the YouGov poll.
316 poll here:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/files/yougov_gordon_brown_candidate.pdf
The government get it wrong again in two ways. Once you have paid for your crimes you should be allowed go get on with an honest life. And how to lose free advertising for exports when out balance of payments is so dire.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/787966/exclusive-martha-stewart-banned-from-britain-her-loss-or-ours.thtml
318 - total crapola.
All the GOPers I know are always bitching about all the stupid/ignorant/miserable rich people they are forever having to put up with/suck up to.
Notion that one side or another has a monopoly on virtue or the opposite is truly laughable.
317 - Presumably piggy backing on another poll seeing as it was only one question.
Still, more proof that whatever decision Brown makes is seen as the wrong one. How some on here are so out of touch as regards how this is perceived outside the bubble I don’t know.
Maybe the supposed Übermensch are actually more like the Untermensch.
Here’s an opportunity for the government to do the right thing and pay up.
They won’t, of course.
“Police drop backdated pay case”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7466034.stm
319 SSI Could you clarify that rant please?
314
That can’t be true, if it was then Cornwall would be the, Peoples Republic of Cornwall’
Off Topic: I’ve just been told off by my 14-year-old daughter:
Her “So how was your barbecue thing on Thursday”
Me “Really good, thanks. I got to meet …”
Her [cuts me off with a musing tone and an evil smile] “You know, that’s a really bad example to set me …”
Me “How so?”
Her “Well, you went to a party to meet up with a bunch of strangers you met online …”
Me [seeing the point] “It’s different. It’s a well-regarded website, I know what I’m doing, and I really don’t think that the circumstances would have me in danger”
Her “Yeah, no teenage girl would ever say that, right?”
Me [rallying after a chance to think] “Sadly, there are people around who stalk teenage girls, while there really aren’t many who stalk men in their thirties”
Her “You haven’t been to my school then. I know a load of girls who would happily stalk David Tennant …”
[I surrender, outgunned]
319 - sorry, this screed is aimed at esteemed Sean T #314!
314 “I do genuinely believe that leftwingers are, on the whole, less intelligent than rightwingers”
What about authoritarians v liberals / libertarians?
325. I guessed.
The sight of Andy Burnham virtually lost for words at the scale of Labours defeat at the BBC’s local election night broadcast was of the highlights. This guy is an embodiment of everything thats wrong with New Labour. Vain. Arrogant. Bullying. Totally and completely without principle and so devoid of any coherant narrative or vision beyond his own arrogant lust for power.
Seeing people like Burnham is abject misery as Labour are swept in 2010 will be something to record and watch over again. Given how down right nasty they are, the only thing that keeps me going day in and day out under this awful regime is knowing they will have plenty of time to think about what they have put this country through, as they spend years or even decades attoning for their wrong-doings in Opposition. I only hope the Liberals can put in enough of a performance to force them Labour down into third place (in vote share, if not in seats)
DD writes on his blog about 28 days:
http://www.tinyurl.com/3ufhdu
324 -
326 - You have to ask?
SSI OK in that post he deserves it. Usually he doesn’t but then that Thai beer can take you rather funnily.
USAToday/Gallup poll - not daily tracking poll
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/06/usatgallup-poll.html?csp=34
Obama maintains his lead.
324 - Am sure that Shadsy can confirm, there is indeed an organized conspiracy actively targeting men (and women) in their 30s plus, with the intent of parting them from their bank balances!
268 I struggle to understand the LibDem strategy at Henley. Why run a campaign focusing on local issues with a non-local candidate? Perhaps Rennard regrets ousting the former, local candidate and replacing her with an interloper. Boris Johnson, Ken Howell and many other local people did a great job saving their local hospital. What did Kearney do? Nothing. Where does he call home? Plymouth and before that somewhere else – he seems rootless.
329 - I’ve said it a few times in recent weeks but this is the perfect time for someone in the labour party to take it by the scruff of its neck, oppose Brown, tell a few home truths and set a pathway that bears some resemblance to the once proud party’s history. I can’t remember it being so weak, battered in elections, unpopular in the country, whoever chances their arm now has virtually no downside.
285, Parody but not far from reality in Kendal this March.
LD disqualified from seat on Kendal Town Council for non-attendance for 6 months. In subsequent by-election the Labour candidate pointed this out in a leaflet and questioned the LD “working for you all the time”.
LDs then accuse Labour candidate for running a dirty campaign with malicious slurs !
And that reminds me SeanT. Did you complete your mission on raki exports available in Europe or did you just fly off the the sultry easy and Patpong Road and forget about it?
329. That reply from DD is good enough for me.
332 - I forgive SeanT everything, because:
1) he’s a good pber
2) he makes me laugh
3) even when he’s wrong always offers food for thought
4) is clearly a bulwark against the looming threat of extremist Cornish nationalism (”I see the Tamar foaming with much blood” - not a ST quote, but perhaps he’ll say it some day!)
260 - I don’t think former students of Exeter University are regularly referred to as old Exonians. Former pupils at Exeter School are as are former students of Exeter College, Oxford (to which I assume you refer).
340. SeanT’s post at 34 had me laughing out loud. Very funny!
310 — Good point, UkPaul.
341 - Old Excretors?
341 - Old Excretians?
344/345 - Not right now, but thanks for asking.
I see no one has argued with my basic premise, merely taken issue with my phraseology etc.
So. We need to move this argument on. Shall we therefore accept, as a given, that leftwing people are more stupid than rightwing people. It’s not like anyone really doubts this. It’s just obvious. Continuing to dispute it is just a bit silly, and wastes everyone’s time.
Once we have accepted this - and I think we’re nearly there - we can move on to more interesting and debatable matters. What can we do about the “intelligence deficit” on the left? Do they need special help? Should leftwingers even have the vote?
It could be argued that they shouldn’t. Lunatics aren’t allowed to vote, because they are by definition irrational. Lefties are by definition intellectually sub-normal. Do they therefore deserve the franchise?
I hasten to add I wouldn’t go that far! I think poor, fat, slow-witted lefties should be allowed to vote, but the votes should count LESS. Maybe a leftie’s vote should have the value of 2/3 or 1/3 of a rightwinger’s vote. Rather like the testimony of women in those Islamic courts so favoured by the Archbishop of Canterbury.
Anyway, these are idle thoughts. But at least we have established the premises of a humane and sensible argument. Lefties are indeed stupid, but never forget they are still humans like us.
N’night from the dusky shadows of soi 6.
339. GIN: “That reply from DD is good enough for me.”
Yes, now he’s clarified his position, I think that Mad Cow Girl is in for a pasting.
H&H
Obviously before 1886 only a section of parliamentary seats were contested even at General Elections, the total vote really didn’t matter. Also obviously there are a heck of a lot of by-elections where one or other of the main parties only puts up a candidate to fly the flag.
But, when was the last mainland by-election when Labour did not put up a candidate ? ( excluding war-time elections such as Skipton 1944 )
328…does one know where Burnham was educated? a nasty little labour oik if ever one were to meet one!
349 They did not put up a candidate in Cirencester and Tewkesbury in 1955, but that was against the Speaker. An ind. Labour candidate stood. Do Labour usually oppose a Tory speaker?
347 - I would agree that more intelligent people are, on average, richer and richer people are, on average, more conservative as it is in their economic interests.
The underlying suggestion that right wing positions are more “intelligent” in some sense is flawed. It is transparently in your own self interest to vote for lower tax and spending if you are a net contributor.
One thing I would note is that the correlation doesn’t appear to be a straight line. Lower middle class people (aspirant skilled workers and middle managers) tend to be more Tory. The comfortable upper middle class clearly feel they can afford the luxury of voting against their economic interest. The richest have such a strong economic incentive that they tend to be Tory again. There is probably a mildly diverting thesis in it.
Didn’t we have this discussion the other day?
You, Sean, are an outlier. I will leave you to consider what I might mean by that and to decide whether that is a generous compliment or a vile, Burnham-esque insult about which you issue immediate legal proceedings.
346. Combined English University by-election, 18th March 1946.
They also didn’t run in the City of London, and Kensington South by-elections, both in late 1945.
348 AB educated at St. Aelred’s RC HS Merseyside; Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge
349 - excellent question - am guessing RodC or some other factoid freak will supply the anwser forthwith.
Methinks that Labour is trying to take advantage that fewer and fewer of its base voter are willing to actually cast a vote.
Then they will argue that anything less than 99% turnout and 98% for DD means lack of public support for his position.
But the Great British Public ain’t in the mood for this kind of bull “excretian” just now.
350 - A Cambridge man, as I think we might have guessed.
348 I hadn’t realised Harman was standing as a candidate
355 - won’t be PM then.
well those educated at these new universities can’t be expected to behave like gentlemen
357 - Indeed not. They produce scholars but not gentlemen. I don’t think any serious person could dispute that.
I mean 358 rather than 357.
354. A Scouse Catholic PM is just what we need. I’ll defer to Andy…
352 - without getting into SeanT’s argument, which seems to me to be at least partly tongue in cheek (but which one?) do think that the economic determinism you describe is no longer as clear for folks on the top end of the income ladder.
Here in US, the drift of high rent “eastern establishment” voters in the Northeast has been ongoing since the 1960s. As noted in Kevin Phillip’s first book “The Emerging Republican Majority” written when he was working for John Mitchell, and still a classic.
Here in Seattle, rich people tend to reside in specific neighborhoods depending upon their partisanship/ideology. Thus Lake Washington view properties are Democratic bastions, while the Magnolia neighborhood overlooking Puget Sound, and the Broadview gated community south of the U of WA, are the best GOP precincts in the city.
I am amazed why people still vote NuLabour !!
From 24dash
The British public have seen their monthly outgoings soar by 26% during the past two years driven by higher housing and energy costs, research showed today.
The amount people spend on bills and living costs has soared from an average of £945 in June 2006 to £1,281 now, according to insurer Combined Insurance.
Consumers are spending around a third more on rent and mortgages than they were two years ago, with rents rising by an average of 30% and mortgage repayments jumping by 33%.
At the same time households claim they are spending about 32% more on gas and electricity at an average of £90 a month, while other everyday bills such as television subscriptions and water rates have risen by 30%.
Council tax has increased by 22% during the past two years to average £90 a month, while car running costs are 34% higher and spending on food has risen by 20%
Families with children have been particularly hard hit, with their average expenditure on child care soaring by 77% during the past two years, while other spending on children, such as clothes, has risen by 37%.
But there are areas where people have cut back on their spending, with households now spending about 8% less on insurance than they were in 2006, while telephone and broadband costs have fallen by 7%.
Nigel Brittle, director of Combined Insurance, said: “The many cost of living hikes are taking their toll on the monthly budget and many Britons are living on the edge with their finances.”
YouGov questioned 1,983 people during May.
362 -better than a Scouse Catholic PM’s wife.
UKpolling reporting Greens will field this lady in H&H…
http://www.y-hgreenparty.org.uk/shan.htm
366. Does she meet with the Crosby Seal Of Approval? Or have you got some degrading, sexist comment about her as well?
367. I’ll wait till she opens her mouth first..
369 - So you can put your foot in it.
315. I raised this point last time we discussed this, but in the US the reverse is true, with the more educated tending to be Democrats.
At this point I would like point out that I support the Conservatives in the UK and the Democrats in the USA. I guess I must be the brainiest of the lot.
365 my old vicar went to your college - then ended up back there as chaplain - surely one of the best CofE gigs - access to the wine cellar and high table with nothing to do but say a few parayers and enjoy the choir (the singing I mean)
366. She seems like a nice lady.
No mention on her CV of indefinite detention but I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, for now.
372 - Surely she is one of your ‘freedom loving loons and misfits’ or was that only a peek into the recesses of your frightened mind?
365 - sorry, must learn to be more tolerant and liberal.
371 LOL
373. ukpaul: “Surely she is one of your ‘freedom loving loons and misfits’…”
Really? Any evidence?
371 - his name? Exeter College’s most famous clergyman was Harold Davidson, the Prostitute’s Padre. After being defrocked, he took to performing with a lion. Until one sad day in Skegness when the he trod on the lion’s tail and it mauled him.
376 - Do you really imagine that the Greens are arm in arm with the government over extending detention without charge?
I can point you to ones that are very much against it, can you find any leading Green that supports it?
YouGov finds that 51% of people think Labour should field a candidate in H&H against 24% who do not;
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/06/public-think-la.html
The public are well and truely on to “Bottler Brown” so thats something to be pleased about!
268 Responding to Conservative complaints about Liberal Democrat literature in the Henley by-election, Liberal Democrat Chief Executive, Lord Rennard said:
“The Conservatives seem to be running scared in what used to be a very safe Conservative seat. It is strange that the Conservative Party is arguing about the design of campaign literature – rather than the political arguments contained within it.
“It is a particularly odd criticism given the Conservatives posted a publication in an almost identical format to the constituency just two weeks ago. It is an insult to the intelligence of the voters to suggest that they were misled by the format of these magazines.
“In relation to the Henley Townlands hospital campaign, we have merely repeated claims by the independent hospital campaigners that they were unaware of any support from the Conservative Party candidate.
“The Conservative campaign appears to be in trouble and their candidate has so far failed to answer all the questions posed about his close links to those lobbying for development.”
by Icarus June 20th, 2008 at 6:07
Icarus
I strikes me that the Conservatives have made a clever move here. The press will be running articles on the by-election tomorrow. The story was going to be the disquiet about Howell’s links with controversial developers (few people want a lobbyist as their MP). The Tory complaint is laughable (as a quick glance at conservative home will confirm). But this is now the story, and the questions about Mr Howell’s will hardly feature in the press tomorrow.
Objective achieved for the Tories - and they will quietly forget about this non-issue.
244. I think Obama was naive on this. Public financing is clearly broken when the excess private money can just go to the negative ad 527s, which means a gutter campaign, which means advantage to the Republicans. He should have said from the start that he would agree to a public finance system, only if the national committees, the state parties and 527s were bound to it. Then he wouldn’t have had to have flip flopped.
379. I’m genuinely surprised that it is as low as 51%.
380. The objective for them as Mr Smithson said is publicity. Publicity which the spat achieves. Publicity = Higher By-election awareness = Higher Turnout = Good result for the Tories and absolutely no chance of a Bromley.
382 - Well think of it as 67% of people who answered then.
New thread - Voters give Labour’s H&H decision the thumbs down
236. Romney won’t ever be the Republican nominee, because he’d lose by double figures every time. He’s the epitome of the slimy, sleazy big business stooge.
378 - Then why are Greens planning on putting up a candidate against DD? Sounds like a boneheaded thing to do on several levels, including the crass political.
Liberal Democrat Chief Executive, Lord Rennard - has he ever done an honest day’s work, anywhere, anytime?
I’d rather be a “misfit and a nutter” than an asshole.
387 - I suppose to make it a debate rather than a walkover.
388 - no, he’s right with Cameron, Osborne and Brown on that!
380. That the Tories have gone nuclear by threatening legal action is highly defensive and that will, locally, be the message. Rather than threaten, why not rebut the charges if they carry no substance? Defensive is admission.
380 I agree that this is very defensive. But also an attempt to deflect attention from bigger issues.
366 - “Since the 70s I have been deeply concerned about human effects on the planet. I became a teacher to try to address this.”
Wouldn’t it have been better if she’d become a teacher
because she wanted to teach children?
Many public service workers are aware of the extent to which phone calls are listened into or emails read. They would be too frightened to admit they don’t support Labour on the phone or in an email.
(David Davis to the rescue)