ComRes report record Tory lead
June 27th, 2008
The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast
After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight - by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls.
The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1).
Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour are the highest ever for a survey from ComRes.
A key element in the detail and one of the reasons why the poll is so good for Cameron’s party is that 74 per cent of Tory supporters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote. This compares with 58 per cent of the Labour supporters and 50 per cent of the LDs. As Andrew Hawkins of ComRes points out: “The Tories are ahead of Labour amongst every age and social group and in every region except Scotland.”
Given the problems that “nannygate” and David Davis have created for their party it is extraordinary that these don’t seem to have impeded the Tory progress.
Mike Smithson
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Now I’m disappointed that it wasn’t even more dramatic
Ok - its only worth:
Lab right back in it then!
Is this the “embargoed” one?
I make it you’re 8 minutes early
Perhaps without Davis or Nannygate it would have been 50:21:18? Still good to be back at 20% plus leads.
(Although don’t get me wrong - the very fact that a 20%+ Tory margin over Labour from a phone pollster isn’t dramatic is, in itself, pretty damn dramatic. I still remember keenly the “box” of Tory support)
Ok, so my guess regarding newsnight or The Times was completely wrong!
Usual good poll for us though, should keep our PPC grinning!
Didn’t we have a more up to date poll yesterday in Henley. Gordon will go after the party conference.
7 Maybe he’ll go after glasgow east…
Oversold, Mike…typical LibDem tactics!
It shows that “Nannygate” doesn’t register - but the prospect of discrimination against white working class males does. Be interested to know if there was any material difference in the Labour score on Thursday as against Wednesday’s polling.
Tories on 3% more than Labour and LibDems combined. Well done, Mr Cameron. That would have been a pipe-dream a year ago. (A crack-pipe at that.)
still precious little for LDs to crow about. They’ve been tearing each other apart tonite on LDV:))
“Given the problems that “nannygate” and David Davis have created for their party it is extraordinary that these don’t seem to have impeded the Tory progress. ”
what happened to your rule that the more coverage the conservatives get, good or bad, the better they do in the polls?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 45.6% .. Lab 26.4% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 10%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 402 seats .. Lab 166 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 154.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
From previous thread (re Glasgow East by-election)
Even in the current climate it’s inconceivable that Labour could lose a seat in the east-end of Glasgow … isn’t it?
It makes Henley look like a marginal.
Ok, so my guess about the Labour leadership was wrong. Still it was fun having a go, unlike NuLab in H&H. Happy anniversary Gordon.
Oh well, do much for my theory!
Another fantastic poll for the Conservatives and a dire poll for Labour. It must be such a wretched time to be a Labour supporter right now… Great isn’t it?
Gordon is at the Nelson Mandela bash.
Poor Nelson…can’t be much prospect of him seeing 91.
13. Do they have time to hold the by-election before the summer recess?
Could be wrong, but I don’t think they do.
7 I still doubt that Gordon will go. Though he doesn’t seem as sure - Telegraph a couple of days ago reported that in addition to visiting the Commons tea rooms he has also attended more divisions in last 5 weeks than in previous 12 months. A PM spending time in the House is a sign of insecurity, feeling the need to reinforce loyalty.
For the Tories its the best of worlds, an unpopular PM with rumours of splits and briefings, talk of rebellions which never happen but most importantly no resolution.
Ah well - getting my maps of Glasgow out.
17 don’t think they will be hurrying to have it!
Could be lab’s equivalent of SDP Bootle 1990!
McDonnell says Labour is on the edge of extinction. Levy says they should consider a change of leader. How long can this go on? Surely someone soon will resign from the cabinet or challenge Brown for the leadership or something. As a Tory I’m loving it but Brown can’t go on like this……can he?
21 “As a Tory I’m loving it but Brown can’t go on like this……can he?”
As a Tory I’m loving it but Britain can’t go on like this……can it?
19 Is this true? The habits of the Labour Whips are well known. Normally they make them carry on no matter what. Just another sign of disintegrating authority you’d guess. Whatever this is far the most important test for the Lib Dems. But crucially unlike Dunfermline West and Fife the SNP start in poll position sic.
I think it is generally accepted on this site that, despite being a Lib Dem sympathiser, I do not chide others or ramp up expectations, again last night I forecast the Conservative result pretty well, (bragging again).
Looking at recent by elections, local election results and national polls I would see a General Election as probably giving the Cons about 340 seats, Labour 210 , Lib Dems 70, SNP 10/11, Northern Ireland 18, Plaid 4, Greens 1, (rounding up the three main party figures). Despite the Cons having a narrow majority they and the Lib Dems would be wise to consider a co-alition, which could govern for four years.
If some Lib Dems are disappointed, so be it, but the days of easy by election pickings have gone, it is a new world and they will have to accept it, and push on.
Change is going to happen. Nevertheless the overall picture does not suggest they are failing to compete with the Cons in those sort of seats where they have MP’s and it looks as if they will hold most of them.
Overall swings do not occur in these type of seats where the contest is quite individual constituency based.
Is it true that Blair is in Glasgow over the weekend? If he was re-elected could he have another house near Glasgow as well as all his others. Could Cherie become a judge under the Scottish legal system? The opportunities are boundless.
scampi at 10 :-
are you looking at a different LDV ?
Tearing themselves apart ? Hardly.
Don’t be misled by trolls!
Glasgow East? What’s all this then? Nothing from the usual sources…
27. Telegraph reporting that the Glasgow East MP will resign on Monday because of ill health (they mention depression)
22 I think Brown will soldier on, because I suspect he is being told to stay put. If an election is called now (as a result of a second leader change) it would be a wipeout, and turkeys dont vote for an early Xmas.. All bets are off if the economy takes a massive nose dive, something I fully expect to occur.
In retaliation for having no Labour opposition in H&H might the Tories not put up a candidate in Glasgow East leaving the SNP a clear run.
28 - Right. He got 60% at the last election. SNP nearest with 17%. If Labour lose this one, the world will implode.
The Telegraph report on Marshall’s resignation contains this…
“Mr Marshall has been ill for some time. It is understood that the illness may be related to depression.”
Naturally, I sympathise with his condition and wish him the best. At the same time though, I couldn’t help but think that, if depression is sufficient basis to resign, the Labour benches could be becoming very empty very quickly.
30. I really don’t think that would make the slightest difference. Labour’s only hope is that somehow the vote splits between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP in such way they can limp home without too much stress.
30 No chance of the Tories not putting up a candidate,
31 Huge ask, but nothinmg is impossible now, Labour is deeply unppular and the Wendy’s in deep doo do….. not a happy basis on which to fight a by election.
“What is really spooking Labour MPs that I’ve spoken to is that Labour were beaten by the British National Party.” John Rentoul
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/06/1066-and-all-th.html
Teflon Dave needs to keep Gordon in place.
He could do that by moving to the right just a bit, which might payoff two fold.
31. Don’t think Lab will lose this seat even with a tory abstention but a vastly reduced majority will send shock waves south of the border.
Pat McPhee is the tory” candidate. Only confirmed one now.
24 70 LD seats? Don’t you mean 7 ??
31 - 1988 the SNP came from 4th place to win Govan on a 33% swing.
22- good point. 30- your having a joke right?
Mike, stop being amazed about Nannygate and Davis not damaging the Tories. On the streets nobody gives a stuff about what a newly elected woman MP with baby did with her expenses 10 years ago. They’ve much more important things to worry about.
Re Davis the public likes an MP with principle, even if it does not fully understand what he’s done. There was never a danger it would damage the Tories. By not fielding a candidate Labour just looks cowardly and shifty. Bit like over Lisbon really.
Joe public has finally woken up to the fact that he’s been fed 11 years of bullshit. He does not like the taste anymore and hates the chef with a vengeance.
41 Yes!
42-Thanks, I was worried for a moment.
24…70 libdem seats…you gus are totally delusional…I asked Libdemers the other night why they thought Conservatives would switch to them and there were a variety of implausible responses. Brown is getting all the shocking headlines but the real party going nowhere is the liberals…
70 seats!…that’s funnier than the South Park I am watching (and South Park is hilarious)..
evening all, I am about to take the dog out for our evening constitutional around the old grounds but before I do a few words on Glasgow East
As many of you know, I was the Tory candidate in Glasgow Shettleston in 1987 and came second ( a long way behind) David Marshall. At that election it was a newly created seat and much of it went into the Glasgow East seat.
David Marshall is an old fashioned working class Labour MP. He was a bus driver and his wife was the “clippie” (conductress who took and issued the tickets). He rose through the classic Scottish Labour ranks on the back of strong union support.
Although I discovered to my cost that many of his party “workers” were thugs and hooligans, he was always a thorough gentleman and I retain to this day the highest regard for him as a person although he was lobby fodder in Parliamentary terms. He reached only very junior ministerial level in his long parliamentary career. The people of Shettleston will miss him.
At a General Election, this seat is just totally out of sight for the SNP. In my Glasgow predictions I say so.
HOWEVER, in a high profile by-election, if the SNP put up a first class candidate and Labour select the usual diddy then I would say a few pounds on the SNP would be a good bet!
I will be happy to answer any specific points about the constituency etc if I can and if any of you are sufficiently interested to ask.
42/43 In fact we are thinking of putting up three - a blonde, a brunette and a redhead
1. Congratulations on the HUGE numbers….Mike. Your impressive page loads put Jack’s ARSE in the shade.
2. ChrisD from the last thread. Please stop writing what I am thinking before I have finished thinking it. Its very unnerving.
3. I am the only person who has a start every time I accidently hover over ‘Total Politics’ and Gordon’s huge face pops up?
47. You are not alone. Can’t believe they went for a Gordo mugshot.
“Gordon Brown is one of the most brilliant politicians of this generation” Margaret Beckett on Newsnight.
45. Although this by-election will be for a seat in Westminster, will the locals be voting according to their perceptions of Lab shennanigans in Edinburgh or the failure of Gordon down south, do you think? Although I’m a few hundred mils away I get the impression that a lot of folk are getting fed up to the back teeth with the Scots Lab party, so who do they want to kick most - Wendy or Gordon? Or will the two together make an almost irresistible target?
49. ‘or any generation’. Ludicrous.
45 Easterross - what is the religious composition of the constituency? Lots of Catholics pissed off at the cosy deal on 42 days with the NI Prods, perhaps?
Who’s this Labour Minister? Never hard of him, looks like everyone is in hiding.
34. Do you think Labour might call a by-election for the Holyrood Motherwell & Wishaw seat at the same time?
It would dilute the SNP effort and if they lost only one, they could claim a “score-draw” like they did over Hodge Hill/Leicester South.
“What is really spooking Labour MPs that I’ve spoken to is that Labour were beaten by the British National Party.” John Rentoul”
They’d better get accustomed to it.
Steve Garner, on the previous thread, I partly agree and partly disagree with you. Labour’s stance on immigration, EU, feminism etc. was always unpopular, but so long as the economy was okay, people would just moan, but not vote them out. Now, the economy isn’t okay, any number of chickens are coming home to roost.
Just looked at the headlines in the Times and Tlegraph over on politics home (print is too small to read). The Times says the 10p fisaco will cost another billion, Telegraph says rebels force car tax climbdown. Any suggestions as to the PSBR at the end of the year?? Will Darling have to come to the House and explain that the Golden rule will be broken?
45 I obviously bow to your superior knowledge, Easterross. But isn’t the problem for the SNP that there are precious few Tory/Lib Dem votes for them to squeeze? Therefore, it would take a truly earth-shattering defection en masse from Labour to SNP for the latter to even get close.
Wikipedia gives the turnout for Glasgow East in the 2005 General Election as 48.2%.
If that figure is correct isn’t it rather low for a general election?
52. That wont register in the minds of any Glasgow Catholic voter beyond the number you can count on all 3 of your fingers…..
54 - unlike Westminster it is not for Labour to name the day. The Presiding Officer I believe does that and Parliament is now in recess until September.
The small scottish sample in the YouGov poll had Labour 32% Tory 19% LibDem 7% SNP 38% Others 4%. Extract what you like from that.
Glasgow East looks a gonner to me. The Holyrood majorities in the equivalent seats are “only” about 20%.
Could someone put up the Glasgow East numbers,please?
Is Brown among the best 40 Prime Ministers? Best 50?
Labour David Marshall 18,775 60.7
Scottish National Party Lachlan McNeill 5,268 17.0
If Labour lose here GB really should go.
re 13 what Glasgow East by election?
58 turnouts are always low in glasgow…..
62. If anyone thinks I jest, remember Monklands East, 1994. John Smith’s old seat, sympathy for Labour and a favourable national position.
It had an almost identical set of votes shares as Glasgow East, 2005.
The SNP put on 27% and came within an ace of taking it….
62. The Holyrood majorities are from a much higher SNP Scotland-wide base vote - 33% Holyrood 2007, 17% Westminster 2005.
65 Shush. Don’t say that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_East_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29
69. Yes, but don’t you think things have changed just a bit since 2005, or 2007 even?
55. Sean, it’s not the economy, honestly. Yes, 10p tax and other tax mess ups are a factor but as much for what they’ve said about spin and incompetence as the effect on payslips. The fact is that other than the Brown bounce Labour’s polling has steadily worsened since the last election and for most of this period the convention is that the economy has been ok. Other than price increases most people have not suffered from unemployment, negative equity or other manifestations of economic malaise. The terrifying thing for Labour is that most of that is to come.
Joe Public feels most cheated about all the other stuff that he’s been lied to about and what’s more, he feels stupid for believing it all. Most Labour voters I know won’t vote for them next time around because of all the lies. I tell you, Jeff Randall’s got it right, as usual.
65. No, let him stay. Let him reap his just desserts, after 10 years as Chancellor.
re 32 well if he does will he take the Manor of Northstead (which is traditional, but already has a bailiff) or will it be the Chiltern Hundreds which is vacant because Darling released Davis from the post instantly?
68. Labour lost majorities of 13,000 in Leicester South and Brent East.
73 Jeff Randall’s article is excellent. We have been governed by dreadful people (Nick P and a few others excepted) for 11 years, and now it’s all going wrong for them. At one level, I just want them to go now. But, I can’t let my heart rule my head. Let them endure another horrible 18 months, and then be humiliated.
re 17 if he resigns on Monday, election anywhere between 21st and 24th July so they could just, but I doubt they’d want to hold it early in the current climate.
75 - It’s usually alternate isn’t it so it would be Chiltern.
But does he know where the Chiltern Hundreds are? I think we must be told and he should be unable to vacate his parliamentary seat unless he moves to Bucks.
Less depressing in Bucks than Glasgow anyway
72. Yes, but you have to be careful not to compare oranges with apples when working out swings.
76 Lab might lose by 10,000 in glasgow east!
Maybe they will be behind Con Lib BNP and Miss UK Party!
Scottish Labour have a habit of having quick by-elections in the hope that their rivals don’t build up an electoral machine in the seat. Doesn’t always work as West Fife & Dunfermline proved.
re 58 Henry H
Turnout percentages are generally low in Glasgow seats (I suspect Govan would be the exception because the SNP have long had it in their sights, won it twice in by-elections and Nicola Sturgeon finally won it for them in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections). The reasons for this (the low turnout, not Sturgeon’s Govan win) are twofold, in my view.
1) They are extremely safe Labour seats; and
2) Simultaneously, they are full of Old Labour voters dissatisfied at New Labour watering down/ditching their socialist principles. Thus, thousands of them can sit on their hands in protest without the danger (in their eyes) of another party winning it. Glasgow East, I’d reckon, without checking majorities/ vote shares, is the most extreme example of both scenarios.
81 Labour should be able to hold onto second place IMO.
Glasgow seems to get a lot of by-elections.
77. Amen to that Sean.
83 Tholster
Thanks for the info..
76 - with higher electorates and turnouts. If Labour lost a 43.7% lead that would be something extraordinary.
re 79 but Davis was the Chiltern Hundreds so it should as I said be Manor of Northstead, but it would seem perverse when the Chiltern Hundreds is vacant
86 WRT New Labour, I take the view of Genghis Khan “Then, let us make an end of them. Men will remember them, and say “They are no more”.
Or as friend put it, “I don’t just want to beat New Labour. I want to drive a stake through their heart.”
49
I suppose all those right long-term decisions for the country do set him aside as one of the world’s great statesmen. I am not sure of its the long-term decision to tax the poor or the long-term decision to try and buy a by-election and only half tax the poor that really sets him aside from all the mere mortal politicans like Milliband, Balls and The Postie.
Perhaps its actually the long-term decisions regarding CGT or the long-term decision (taken in the shorter term) to backtrack.
Could it be the way he has planned for the future with millions of affordable homes that are practically perfect fot the longer term with the exception only of their not actually being built or there being any prospect of the target being hit?
There is a chance that his visionary IHT proposals, delivered by proxy through a passing Badger and bearing only an accidental similarity to already announced policies of another party are evidence of his status.
The list, like the chasm before the next election, seems endless. Beckett however must be congratulated on finding a statement that I believe has smashed the record for ’sentiment expressed verbally or in the written word that is furthest form the public perception’
Next poll - Labour minus another 2 for Beckett being a plank.
Re: 73 - Steve, I think you and other Tory posters on here haven’t quite got it. A lot of the various faults you find with Labour (and all justifiable) didn’t begin last July or even in 2005.
Yet, despite this, Labour won three elections and even won fairly comfortably last time. The catalyst for the discontent is and always has been the economy. Until recently, people could tolerate all the other flaws in Labour as long as they were delivering on the economy.
Now, the months of media doom-mongering has had an impact as did Northern Rock and now surging food and fuel prices. The REAL killer hasn’t so much been the fuel but the loss of confidence in matters housing. A fall of 20-30% in housing values has been mooted - that scares a lot of people.
As I said on the last thread it’s all about fear (not Sean) now. People are worried and frightened and want rid of Brown. ChrisD believes they will give the Tories “the benefit of the doubt”. I disagree - the Cameron honeymoon will be very short if the economy doesn’t improve.
The new reality of the end of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap credit and rising property values is fundamental. I don’t think ANY party understands this, appreciates it and has worked out a response. The truth is there probably isn’t a response that doesn’t involve some economic pain be it severe spending cuts or tax rises.
77 Sean Fear. Why is Nick P always excepted when discussing this dreadful government? As far as I know he has never disavowed the lies listed so cogently by Jeff Randall, he presumably voted with his government when any of them were put to the vote, I expect he rhubarbed adequately, whenever GB sat down after his damaging budgets. Being a “nice guy” is not a good excuse.
Perhaps Labour won’t bother standing in glasgow east?!!
94 Still time for David Davis to stand there and withdraw from H and H.
re David at 79: ‘Less depressing in Bucks than Glasgow anyway’
I have family in Penn and there are some cracking places in Bucks (I love the traditional English pubs, beer gardens and village cricket) but as a lifelong Glasgow boy, it’s not as bad as you southerners are often led to believe.
It’s like saying London is a hellish place to live because of knife crime. It has dodgy bits and great bits and so does Glasgow.
Not meaning to sound like a chippy Jock but I do think Glasgow gets a bit of a bad press.
I will admit, though, that the weather here is bloody depressing.
92. We were in a mess when Thatcher came to power. Noone expected it could be turned round overnight.
Some of the Tory voters that have come back have done so because history has repeated itself.
If you were to let your head rule your heart you would hope for Labour to fall now. But this is one of the problems with party-based representative democracy. Partisanship competes with striving for optimal outcomes.
92 Because he’s a nice man.
Stodge, you may very well be right. But, your scenario surely plays into the hands of a right wing government, rather than out of them.
92. No no no no no. I agree that the faults with Nulab started before 2005. It’s just that the steady polling trend did not start until after the 2005 election. Why? Not because of the economy, because Joe Public saw an attractive alternative for the first time in years. When you combine sick of Nulab and a real alternative you get….. Com Res tonight and all the rest of it this week. The state of the economy is just the icing on the cake.
94 - you might have something there - do Labour have time to campaign in Glasgow when there are nonexistant right long-term decisions to procrastinate over?
Gordon Brown - will never be able to decide which milkshake Alberto Frog would like. The Elephants have said Chocolate, the Mice have said raspberry and the wise Cats have said Strawberry but Gordon has set up a review….. I expect it to conclude that Alberto’s dehydration is the fault of the credit crunch (eventually)
re 56 and don’t forget that there’s no money to keep the 10p tax bribe up next year so we’re all going to have an income tax hike next April just in time not to vote Labour in next year’s elections.
It pains me to say so given that I sought to be the MP for the seat but Glasgow East contains some of the thickest and most illiterate members of the electorate anyone could ever come across.
Re religious splits, the seat is dominated by those of the RC persuasion so the views of Archbishop Conti will be important to the older RC community. This is the constituency which covers areas like Parkhead where almost no-one has a Scottish name and almost all are the grandchilden of Irish immigrants. The seat extends east from the Bridgeton area where it meets Glasgow Central to the eastern fringes of the city where it meets the Monklands seat and on the south by the River separating it from Rutherglen. It includes the upwardly mobile working class areas like Garrowhill and Old Shettleston and the very middle class and affluent areas like Mount Vernon.
It also sadly has the title of being the constituency with the lowest average life expectancy in the UK and there is a dreadful area of sub-standard local authority owned housing even though every Government starting with Margaret Thatcher have piled tens of milions of pounds into rejuvenation.
Much of the Commonwealth Games 2014 athletes village etc are due to be built within the constituency so over the next 5 years it will be transformed.
Politically I dont think some of you understand the nature of Scottish politics, which is understandable. The majority of the remaining Tory and LibDem votes will not be squeezed. They are already at bedrock. If I’m not mistaken and thinking of the correct person, Pat McPhee is an ex-Tory agent or Organising Secretary. He would expect to fight to retain the 6% or so achieved in 2005. The Tories will be working towards securing a councillor again in part of this constituency in 2011 or 2012.
This is a constituency where upon knocking a door the lady of the house is likely to tell you she hasn’t yet been told by her husband how to vote!! I was confronted with this answer time and time again.
Barring some major sea-change this will be a poll in the range of 35-50%. Labour will try and sow it up with postal votes. AGainst me, Labour party workers tood minibuses to the various down and out hostels in the constituency, got them out of their beds and took them to vote, reminding them of the Labour candidate’s name right up to the school gate and then very cynically gave them a lift from the school to the pub and dropped them off at the pub. Most of these men and women were chronic alcoholics which is why they were living rough or in hostels.
In Scotland in 2007 for the first time we had wholesale transfer of votes from Labour straight to the SNP. the SNP have been getting very close to the RC church, for example defending the right of the RC church to operate separate schools within the state system.
This will be one almighty gladiatorial contest and if Labour delay in calling the by-election, I reckon they will play into Alex Salmond’s hands.
The Inde is asking various people,’What can Gordon do?’
Ann Widdecombe’s contribution:
‘There is nothing he can do now and I look forward to him no longer doing it.’
I cannot believe I am wondering about how to handicap a by-election that has a 13,500 majority. This seat is in the 90% percentile for size of majority - how can it be lost?
What odds would people give on Labour win vs SNP win?
re 97 But Sally wasn’t it a combination of the Falklands and the SDP-Labour split that saved Thatcher in the 1983 election? In the first couple of years of her Premiership, her tough medicine to sort out the economy (irrespective of whether it was right or wrong long term) was deeply, deeply unpopular.
92. As usual when macroeconomics is discussed, the usual high level of PB.com discussion degenerates into ill-informed tripe.
104 Brilliant.
103 I think you’re a bit harsh on the Catholics.
I see that Labour would be down to 156 seats on the latest poll.
The by-election is unlikely to be in JUly or August. The Scottish schools broke up for their holidays today and the second fortnight in July is called the Glasgow Fair Fortnight when traditionally working class Glasgow decamps to Blackpool, Majorca or Florida. The Scottish schools return in mid August but since Parliament wont be sitting them, I suspect it will have to wait until October or November when Parliament has returned.
The economy is NOT just the icing on the cake. But it’s not the whole cake mix either. Iraq, 10p tax, failure to deliver on ‘educetera, etc, etc” These aren’t small things.
The argument anyway is unwinnable — these things cannot be measured. All we can say for certain is that 75% agree that it is time for a change.
Lulz at Sarah “Why am I married to this man” Brown’s interesting new clothes:
http://www.imagehosting.gr/upload4/out.php/i141992_crop.JPG
Um. Nice lapels.
Can by-elections be held during the Summer recess?
According to the Parliament website, the Summer recess starts on Tuesday 22 July (ie that’s the last day Parliament will sit).
If an MP resigns on Monday 30 June, the first day a by-election could be held (assuming it’s a Thursday) would be Thursday 24 July.
106 They helped, but even just before the Falklands, the Conservatives were recovering strongly. The Tories would always have won in 1983, against Labour, even if by not so big a margin.
79 & 89 - they alternate between Chiltern Hundreds and Manor of Northstead. Each post is “held” by the applicant until awarded to the applicant after next. Therefore I believe both posts are always occupied by someone (although under the unlikely circumstances of both post-holders dying, what would then happen is anyone’s guess)
On the subject of betting, can anmyone explain why, despite the mayhem of the last 24hrs, (by-election and 2 opinion polls) the Labour spread on Betfair has gained and the Conservatives decreased? (and I declare a financial intesterest in the matter!)
re 105 I reckon Evens would be about right. We’ve had 20+% swings in by elections before
109. But if the by-election is to be delayed, why would he resign now?
Why give up some salary etc if there is to be a delay in replacing him?
re 112 but it doesn’t have to be a Thursday and yes by elections can be held during recesses. Doing so would save three month’s salary of the new MP. But still that would be breaking the habit of a lifetime for MPs to consider prudence when it comes to saving public money on salaries and allowances.
105 I agree Morus. It’s a sign of just how desperate a plight Labour are in that even the possibility of the seat being under threat is up for debate.
If they were to lose, it would be truly seismic. I know there will be Labour seats with bigger majorities in Britain but there must be precious few with a bigger Labour percentage of the votes cast.
That’s why, on balance, I still can’t see them losing it - even to a buoyant SNP.
110. All the dismal failings of Labour across the policy spectrum have been visible for those interested in looking for some time. But many voters weren’t too interested in looking, as long as their personal financial situation was sound.
Now that the economic picture has changed, all of a sudden the apparent managerial success of Labour in the economic sphere no longer masks their manifest incompetence and dangerous lunacy elsewhere, and their support among floating voters is collapsing.
The worst part of this analysis for Labour is that the economic pain has only just begun. Unemployment is rising, but the rise so far is modest and will get much worse. House prices are down, but forced sales of houses are quite limited at present - they will also get a lot worse.
25% isn’t necessarily the floor at all - in the autumn, we could be down to 20% or even slightly below.
re 114 but the Chiltern Hundreds in currently vacant. David Davis was Steward for the instant it took to get from one sentence to the next. Darling’s press release was
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has today appointed the Right Honourable David Michael Davis to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern. The Chancellor has also granted Mr Davis’s request to be released from this appointment today.
105 3/2 in favour of the SNP.
On tonight’s poll the Conservatives would win 18 seats in Wales, 14 in Scotland.
Just because the Telegraph says so it doesn’t mean there will be a by-election.
Given their current predicament no Labour seat would be held in by-election circumstances, so no Labour MP is going to resign unless there is very good reason to do so.
For all those who are believing the (Tory) spin about how Rennard is finished may find the following interesting.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/
test
119 Visible since 1999, when I was elected a councillor. How I campaigned, and how I felt I was knocking my head against a brick wall, for years.
Sean at 109,
You have to understand that this part of the east of Glasgow has always been a proxy for Northern Ireland. The religious divide is deep and divisive even in 2007. Walk around the PArkhead area wearing a Rangers strip and you are likely to get out without serious injury. The contrast with the West end where I grew up or the South side is like comparing Kensington and Chelsea with Tottenham or Peckham. To the north of Parkhead in areas like Dennistoun and Carntyne which used to have Tory councillors until 1980, there are pockets where to wear a Celtic strip would result in the same danger as someone in the opposite camp in Parkhead. In these areas the Orange Lodge is very powerful. The tribalism in the east end of Glasgow entirely relates to what side of the divide in northern or southern Ireland the individual families originated in.
The Inde on ‘What can Brown do?…..continued.
The design critic: Stephen Bayley
Branding depends on the quality and desirability of the original product. In Brown’s case that’s profoundly sub-optimal. Re-branding Brown would be like chrome-plating slurry: difficult and useless.
OVERPAID EURO PIGS DOING NOTHING
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/bruno_waterfield/blog/2008/06/27/euromps_fear_and_loathing_on_the_gravy_train
Another reason why the alienation between the EU’s technocratic “elite” and the European voters is growing deeper and deeper…
Chris A @ 120:
Really? I wasn’t aware of that. It must be a first, as somewhere (probably Wikipedia!) I have seen a list of occupiers of both sinecures, and the applicant usually occupies the post until it is next awarded.
Darling’s staement sort of makes sense, as the whole purpose is to debarr the postholder from sitting in the Commons. Therefore it seems perfectly natural that they should likewise vacate it before becoming a by-election candidate.
124 It’s time to bury the hatchet. Both we, and Roman Catholics, should recognise Labour as the enemy.
Chris @120:
It’s Wikipedia, so it’s not necessarily the Gospel truth, but
“As an instrument of resignation, the role is usually alternated with that of Steward and Deputy Steward of the Manor of Northstead in Yorkshire. Under the Act of Settlement, any Member of Parliament accepting an office of profit under the Crown must give up his or her seat. An MP applies for the office to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who usually then signs a warrant appointing the now former MP. The Chancellor can in theory deny an application, although the last time this happened was to Viscount Chelsea in 1842.[2] The appointee holds the office until such time as another MP is appointed, or they apply to be released.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Stewards_of_the_Chiltern_Hundreds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Stewards_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead
124. Yes Sean, this shower of incompetents should never have been in charge of anything. But when life is good, people tend to become disengaged from the detail of politics.
Now, people are starting to see Labour as a serious threat to their wallets, and this is opening their eyes to the more serious threat (IMHO) that Labour poses to their personal liberty, national identity, and right to self-government. Labour on almost every issue look like the enemies of the people.
124. Yes Sean, this shower of incompetents should never have been in charge of anything. But when life is good, people tend to become disengaged from the detail of politics.
Now, people are starting to see Labour as a serious threat to their wallets, and this is opening their eyes to the more serious threat (IMHO) that Labour poses to their personal liberty, national identity, and right to self-government. Labour on almost every issue look like the enemies of the people….
Re: 107 - And it’s the ill-informed ill-humoured sniping of the rare uninformed ill-mannered poster that does this site no credit. Still pretty good evidence I’m onto something !!
Re: 97 - The solutions that were available to Thatcher and Howe may not be so readily available to Cameron and Osborne and let’s not forget the unpleasant pain of 1979-81.
Re: 99 - I know, Sean, I don’t state this with enthausiasm but it’s what I think. In his very strong defence, Cameron hasn’t resorted to demagoguery of any form and I don’t believe he ever would. I would be more confident if he or Osborne stopped wasting their time attacking Brown and Darling (the politics of yesterday) and started discussing the economic options (the politics of today and tomorrow).
Re: 100 - In fact, the decline in Labour polling started, as I recall, in 2004 as Iraq dragged on. What happened after 2005 was, as you say, the improvement in Conservative fortunes. Obviously, the decontamination has helped but I think it would be a spectacularly inept and incompetent Conservative leader who would not be presiding over a substantial opinion poll lead by now.
Graeme,
I was suprised to see the markets moving against the Tories/for Labour as well. I can only assume people are still trying to close positions or they believe Gordon will go in the near term and so Labour’s position will genuinely improve.
Not sure about the last one anymore, despite the obvious positives a new leader could be seen as the last desperate throw of the dice by a doomed party and the move greeted with contempt.
104 Pat McPhee SHE is an ex-tory agent. Conti may be a problem for Labour as he is very much the Political Animal in the Scottish RC church. He is very orthodox Catholic. Just before leaving Aberdeen back in 2002 he came to my kids school for Christmas Nativity and gave a very political speech to 5-12 year olds but really aimed at us parents. Labours various machinations against families, abortion etc etc will not have gone down particularly well, and in particular the threat to Denominational brainwashingschooling.
I have just read the Telegraph website on DM.
I reiterate David Marshall is a very honourable man and if he does not think he is well enough to represent Glasgow East I would expect him to want to resign. He doesn’t need the money. He has a comfortable home and having been an MP for around 30 years, will have built up a large pension pot.
According to the telegraph article the rumour is the SNP will select Elaine C Smith the actress and comedienne. Some of you will know of her as “Mrs Rab C Nesbitt” aka “Mary Doll”. She is a long standing SNP activist and one of the most popular actresses in Sotland. It would be like the Tories selecting Victoria Wood to fight for Sheffield Hallam at the GE or Labour selecting Glenda Jackson for Hampstead and Highgate and we know what happened there.
If Elaine C Smith is selected as the SNP candidate then its an SNP gain.
Evening all,
Anthony Wells has a long, informative and detailed analysis of what went wrong for labour up on politics home:
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=1573&perma=link#1586
One of the things that struck me as being interesting was that after the Crewe by-election and the Tory Toff campaign the perception of Cameron as privileged went up. It seems that some mud sticks.
Result of Diss By Election [South Norfolk Council] contested on Friday 27th June 2008.
Eloise ELLIS Con 1041 56% +3.4%
Trevor Wenman LibDem 768 41% -1.7%
John COWAN Lab 63 3% -1.7%
Total 1872 100%
Turnout 33.44%
Con Hold
This by-election was caused by the death of Brian Clark Taylor [Con] in April. It was held unusually on a Friday to avoid a clash with the Royal Norfolk Show and to co-incide with market day.
The turnout was the same as the whole-district election in 2003.
Last year, Conservatives won South Norfolk Council taking 20 seats from the Liberal Democrats, the joint highest swing of any Council in the May 2007 elections [an honour shared with Bournemouth]
131 Really, Labour started going down from 1999, but so gradually, no one noticed till Iraq kicked in.
Interestingly, it was the groups that had done best out of New Labour, the left wing middle classes, some ethnic minorities, that turned furiously against Labour, at that time.
It took longer for swing voters, and then their historic white working class voters, to turn against them.
Fitaloon, my fingers not working as fast as my brain. Of course Pat is a she. Wasn’t she Phil Gallie’s agent for many years. Small woman, dark hair, scary eyes, very hard worker.
I attended a talk given by a leading economist last night. His expectation was that house prices would tumble very quickly over the next two years and that inflation would rocket over the same timescale: in other words, it’s likely to be utterly dire until 2011, when things will start looking a little more rosy.
It sounds as though, barring some jolly good luck for Mr Brown, his successors in office will be enjoying the first signs of economic recovery during their first year in government.
I can’t pretend to feel much sympathy for Mr Brown: he took all of the credit when the world economy was buoyed by a series of speculative bubbles, it would be perverse for him not to take the blame for the negative effect that his spending splurge will have during the downturn.
A further point for consideration is that Mr Brown has left some hostages to fortune on the record by telling the press that he would single-handedly save the world economy back in May. I strongly suspect that those words will come back to haunt him.
Scipio @132
The Labour position originally got worse by around 3 seats, during the last 24 hrs, but has now improved again by 4 seats, giving a net gain of 1. Likewise, the Conservatives are down 2 seats overall and the Liberals up 1 (at least I think this is the case, after checking my own postions)
Your reasoning sounds quite plausible regarding people closing positons, although personally I dont think the public would be taken in by a new leader either, they would just shake their heads in disbelief! Whatever happens regarding Brown or A. N. Other as Leader, I really only see things getting worse for Labour, becuase either way they make themselves look like a laughing stock.
Independent finally has the ComRes Poll here.
An opinion poll for The Independent gives the Conservatives a 21-point lead over Labour, which should now “seriously consider” dumping Gordon Brown, according to a close ally of Tony Blair.
Labour backbenchers called on cabinet ministers to tell Mr Brown to quit after the party came a humiliating fifth in the Henley by-election, behind the Greens and the BNP. “Brown’s people said it couldn’t get any worse – now it has,” said a senior Labour MP.
134. Cor blimey! Talk about Life imitating Art…
Will Rab be out on the stump in his string vest. Hope so.
That would trump even the Davis circus…
G isn’t the point that many voters think someonewho is a genuine “toff” and doesn’t shout about it is less likely to be caught with his nose in the gravy train trough?
“Brown’s people said it couldn’t get any worse – now it has,” said a senior Labour MP.”
And will get worse still.
140 Walking round with a dart stuck in his head.
Just watched BBC News Channel, with all the careerist establishment Labour hangers-on - Howard Davies, Richard Lambert etc. queueing up to put the boot in. All the rats have left the sinking ship, the Captain is alone on deck, preparing to be submerged.
141 Exactly. They know Cameron wont be a grasping, corrupt, disgrace
Fitaloon wasn’t there also a male PAt McPhee who was a party activist in the West of Scotland? Small chap, brillcreamed black hair, chain smoker, ex Trade Unionist?
145. It’s all about class. Brown has none, either in the social sense or any other sense.
141. I don’t really know, you’ll have to commission a poll.
My view on Cameron’s background is that it will not prevent him from being elected but will become a stick to beat him with when he is elected. Similar to the ugly McBroon and McSporran comments we are seeing about Brown.
134 Elaine C Smith might well enhance the SNP’s chances, because she is well-known, but she is an absolute buffoon - as anyone who has had the misfortune to read her Sunday Mail column or other media ramblings could testify.
She might help the SNP short-term but she’d damage them long term if she ever got elected.
Didn’t she cause a big furore up here a year or two back with a nasty, class-ridden attack on the evils of private schooling (although admittedly, that’s hardly likely to hinder her chances in Glasgow East)?
Comres full details are here. The figure for Scottish voting are so small as to be useless.
Quite seriously, if Elaine C Smith does stand for the SNP, I would not be surprised to see Gregor Fisher (no relation) out on the stump to support her. The real man is an articulate, well read character actor who has also done shakespeare etc.
147. I thought being a son of the manse gave Brown a good deal of social class?
151 What about one of the sons, who stuck a chip down the other son’s ear “for flavouring.”
Although in many ways at the opposite end of the political spectrum (not to mention the opposite end of the country), it’s perhaps worth reminding ourselves of the Christchurch by-election from 1993.
The Conservatives, struggling in the polls - though nowhere near as much as would be the case later in the parliament, or lagging as far behind as Labour is now - went into the election with a 40% lead in the share of the vote and lost by 30% to the Lib Dems. That seat was held by the governing party with a massive lead over a popular smaller party, which was itself far enough ahead of third for it to be clear who was the challenger (though the nature of the place made it pretty clear too).
True, history doesn’t always repeat itself, and apart from anything else there isn’t actually being a vacancy in Glasgow East. Still, anyone saying Labour can’t lose there is deluded: they can and (if an election is held), there’s a strong chance they would. Henley didn’t make much difference to Brown’s position - though a very bad result, it was too much of a safe Tory seat to give an unambiguous message; Crewe & Nantwich was worse; Glasgow East is the sort of by-election that ought to give Labour Party managers nightmares - defeat there could not in any way be explained away.
152. Only if your scale starts at a very low point. But seriously, I really meant in a broader sense. He is every inch a machine politician, indistinguishable from the vile snout-in-the-trough characters one sees in Brussels.
He represents nothing anyone could feel any trust in at all - slippery, insincere, with that awful false smile - whereas Cameron has the feel of an old fashioned country squire or senior army officer to him, a trustworthy figure for many people.
Tholster, that’s exactly the point!! Horses for courses. She would be perfect for Glasgow East. But then so would the many characters of Jonathan Watson including Cathy (MSP for Braehead Shopping Centre) Jamieson one of his funniest characters.
These are people who believe everything printed in the Daily Record must be true. Drive around the constituency any day of the week and you will see dozens of young men standing on street corners. This is Invalidity Allowance and Disability Allowance land where few men of working age have ever worked and neither have their fathers and in some cases neither have their grandfathers.
This is the constituency where most young men seem to walk around in white “trackie bottoms” wearing Celtic strips wearing fake Burberry skip caps with numerous heavy gold chains around their necks and large sovereign gold rings on the their fingers.
We are talking serious black economy and it pains me to say it because it paints a poor image of a part of the city of my birth.
144. “All the rats have left the sinking ship, the Captain is alone on deck, preparing to be submerged”. Apparently, the captain has said that he expects to dock on schedule and not to worry about the slight dampness on A, B, C, D, E and F decks. So that’s alright.
155. I think by many people you mean yourself. Cameron is every inch the machine politician. The “heir to Blair” remember?
Ay, Broon, yer Bawbag! Awayan’boilyirheid! I gis youse Missus Nesbitt MP
http://www.friendsofscotland.gov.uk/images/scotlandnow/humour-slideshow/20.jpg
154 “defeat there could not in any way be explained away.”
Being beaten by a popular celebrity/actress (should the SNP put one up) would be some sort of excuse.
152: regardless of their background, no-one can withstand the corrupting influence of Edinburgh University politics
PODWAS?
“There was more whimper than bang when Britain’s champion of Magna Carta launched his by-election campaign yesterday.”
“His launch was one of those events overwhelmed by a slightly embarrassed sense of anti-climax before its main man has even taken to the stage.”
“Mr Davis lies in the bed he made, against the wishes of his party leader. David Cameron visits the constituency next week. I bet he can’t wait.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4228265.ece
146, There may be, The only one I could find was a she, and was a tory agent and councillor. The conservative web site has no details for her/him
162 I’m sure he’s crying into his wine, Denis.
156 But it’s like the Tories picking Jim Davidson in the east end of London or Essex - it might improve their chances of taking the seat but would it be worth the embarrassments that would inevitably followed?
BRown portrays himself as a “working class boy” who went to a state school. He was no such thing and I know people who were at school with him and laugh at the notion he has of hiself.
Brown’s father was the nearest thing the SCottish Labour Party had to an in-house Archbishop of Canterbury. For years he was one of the most influential leftie clergymen in Scotland and I am told used it constantly to get his own way.
Broon Jnr was treated like a member of the ruling classes wnhich frankly was the way in which the Parish Minister was regarded in almost every Scottish community until the 1970s. At school he was somthing of an elitist and different from most of the other pupils and he attended one of the best schools in Fife, albeit within a state system which in the 1960s and early 1970s was much better than the present day private system.
He is a typical son of a Scottih prbyterian minister, virtually as pious as his father and the Alexander bookends, Douglas and Wendy show exactly the same propensities but then their father I understand was a bit of a disciple of Pa Broon. But of course they don’t have dynasties in the Labour party!!
I’ve tried to find out who the existing SNP candidate is as one was selected just before the general election was called off. I wonder if Lachie MacNeil is still the candidate? Talking of E C Smith as the candidate is a bit premature.
166 You think he’s pious? I see no evidence of it.
165. The Scots seem to have a very high embarrassment theshold…
http://bigrab.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/wendy-fruit-and-veg.jpeg
162 - Norfolk, the writer of that, was one of those who totally misjudged public opinion by stating within a few hours that nobody cared. Now he’s been proved wrong he has two choices, apologise or brazen it out. As he’s a journalist there’s a cat in hell’s chance that he’ll admit that he doesn’t understand what happens outside the bubble. So he’ll go with option one, and hope that nobody notices.
Right you lot I’m off to bed so maybe by tomorrow we will know some more. I do not think the Telegraph would have gone to print without a reliable source. If they were wrong by now Hazel Blears would have been got out of bed to do an interview in her nightgown and cap declaring it to be a scare story by the Daily Torygraph.
Good night all of you.
Tories split over Spelman.
I hope Cameron wins - it will do them far more harm.
“The Parliamentary Standards Commissioner is investigating the claims, but some Tory MPs are privately urging Mr Cameron to sack Mrs Spelman now, rather than let the matter drag on, allowing Labour to make capital out of the issue.”
“Sources close to Mr Cameron said last night: “She is not resigning and she is not about to be sacked. She is 100 per cent adamant that she put all this to the chief whip at the time and that she did not break any rules.”"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/2208542/David-Cameron-fears-%27witch-hunt%27-aimed-at-Caroline-Spelman.html
166. Broon’s doom-laden visage makes Ian Paisley look like Father Ted…
Broon’s father’s name was Ebenezer, and, boy, does it show….
Is Gordon Gladstone re-incarnated?
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40263000/jpg/_40263313_gladstone203300.jpg
“allowing Labour to make capital out of the issue.”
Not really working, though, is it, Gabble MacShane?
Clinton supporters ponder whether to embrace Obama:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/28/uselections2008.barackobama
Wonderful bit from Iain Dale well worth reprinting:
Was Gordon in the Library?
Quote from Stephen Pound MP on hearing the Henley by-election result, with Labour at 3%, behind the BNP…
“My first reaction [to the Henley by-election] was to head to the library with the glass of whisky and a revolver.”
174. If it starts to affect the way Cameron is viewed ie. dithering, lack of judgement etc. then it could start to damage the tories position.
176. Very kind of him to offer Brown a drink before shooting him!
172 Put’s me in mind of the way football managers are backed by the board and then are sacked a few days later. Toast.
177. Yeah, keep believing it, Denis.
166
I came across a comment on the Telegraph website a while back, from someone claiming to have been a contemporary of Mr Brown’s at university. He said that when Mr Brown arrived, he asserted himself to be an atheist. Do you know if that’s accurate?
If you want to see how closely the Catholics take an interest in politics have a look here to see the views of candidates and how they match up to the Catholic outlook
I wonder Gabble if you could quote me, and give a reference, for the rules which Spelman has, in your opinion, broken.
The Green Book valid at the time, perhaps? Page, paragraph would help.
92.”Re: 73 - Steve, I think you and other Tory posters on here haven’t quite got it. A lot of the various faults you find with Labour (and all justifiable) didn’t begin last July or even in 2005.
Yet, despite this, Labour won three elections and even won fairly comfortably last time. The catalyst for the discontent is and always has been the economy. Until recently, people could tolerate all the other flaws in Labour as long as they were delivering on the economy.
Now, the months of media doom-mongering has had an impact as did Northern Rock and now surging food and fuel prices. The REAL killer hasn’t so much been the fuel but the loss of confidence in matters housing. A fall of 20-30% in housing values has been mooted - that scares a lot of people.
As I said on the last thread it’s all about fear (not Sean) now. People are worried and frightened and want rid of Brown. ChrisD believes they will give the Tories “the benefit of the doubt”. I disagree - the Cameron honeymoon will be very short if the economy doesn’t improve.”
Stodge, I don’t think you or the Libdems get it at the moment. I was leafleting for the Conservative in Aberdeen in the late 90’s and I got it loud and clear thank you!
Friends and family thought my continued support for a party dead and buried up here to be something to be admired, simple because I got off my arse and put my time and effort where my mouth was, I was quite often humoured rather than ranted at!
I knew we had lost the 2005 GE outside the South of England weeks before a vote was cast in that election. When I first started posting on here I locked horns more with Conservatives like Sean Fear than I did with some of our Labour and Libdem regulars. I think that the Libdems at the moment are in a bad position, and I laid out my reasons for thinking this during your leadership contest. I got fed up with Bluemoon, Mark Senior etc dismissing my arguments simple because they assumed that I must be driven to air any views based on what was best for my party.
To be honest, I don’t do ramping on here because I have too much respect for many of the excellent regulars (including your good self!) who debate here. If I give you an opinion on the Conservatives, SNP, Labour or the Libdems in Scotland, its honest and exactly what I think and have experienced rather than hyperbole.
You are very doom laden about the prospects of a Conservative government, you post about it everyday. Now I am doom laden about the prospects for our economy just now, but leaving the present bunch of incompetents in power is not an option for me. If the Conservatives screw up badly, I will come on here and say it.
But you are determined to grade them alongside the present government before they have even been elected, you need to spend a bit more time reflecting on why your party is not benefiting from this Labour decline as well.
Dan pulled me up for criticising Clegg (’idle speculation’) on the grounds that they had gone up two points since the last ICM poll. I think this is a classic head-in-sand reaction.
With Labout tanking to hitherto unknown levels in both polls and by-elections, moving within the margin of error around the high teens simply isn’t good enough. Labour are in trouble, but at least they are sounding the panic stations; the Lib Dems are looking at a slow stagnation - missing perhaps their best ever chance to become the second party.
This cannot just be explained away by the Tory revival - they are no longer your principal enemy. As the Tories grow ever more popular of the back of Labour’s failings, the Lib Dems should be seizing the opportunity - unfortunately, they are still acting like an amateur outfit, that isn’t even pretending it wants power.
There is no lack of talent (person for person they have as good a set of MPs as any party, though lacking some really big guns), and they are unique in the even distribution of their support in both the North and South of England. They have the most committed activists, are not desperately short of money, so what is wrong?
The Leader is not performing - as a media focus, as a policy guru, as a strategic titan, as a ruthless political operator - none of it. I am pretty interested in politics, and I couldn’t name a single Lib Dem policy except for the local income tax. I can name policies for all other parties. I cannot discern any direction, or any sense of hunger for power. They are there to make up the numbers, and pray beyond hope either for a Hung Parliament or PR - they are leaving their fate in the hands of the other main parties.
I still rate Huhne as a great politician, and think that a swift coup would be preferable. Four leaders in a Parliament is embarrassing, but given that the public have barely registered the existence of the last two, I think it would still be worth it. Clegg is the Peter Principle brought to life, and should be sent as the next EU Commissioner as soon as Mandleson returns to the land of the undead.
185
Your spot on but the Lib Dems just don’t seem to get it.
As the alternative left of centre party to Labour they should be on a roll,instead they keep on attacking the wrong target.
The commanilty with Labour is they also picked the wrong leader and seem keen on promoting policies designed to alienate significant sections of the electorate.
185.”The Leader is not performing - as a media focus, as a policy guru, as a strategic titan, as a ruthless political operator - none of it. I am pretty interested in politics, and I couldn’t name a single Lib Dem policy except for the local income tax.”
Got it in one Morus! And those observations were crystal clear during the leadership contest. Huhne was the right man for this political period, instead they chose the man the Parliamentary party thought was best placed to protect their Conservative leaning marginals in the South of England in the face of a resurgent Conservative party under Cameron.
They have been so insular looking that I never heard one Libdem mention the fact that the party is really going backwards in Scotland. And considering the number of seats they hold here and in Wales that is quite an incredible oversight. The latest wheeze is to complain the there is not enough meat on Conservative economic policy, but my party is issuing statements almost weekly clearing setting out its intent on a varied range of issues. We have had deep rooted policy reviews in all area’s and the party is brimming with ideas. The question is what gets in and what gets left out, its positive as opposed to the quite negative campaigning we are seeing from the other two parties just now.
187
The one manifesto policy they did have a chance to put into action in this parliament was their promise of an EU referendum vote,but when it came to the crunch they reneged on it.
I would suggest that their EU betrayal,immigration and asylum policies will cost them dearly in their southern seats.
In the early 1990s I wrote to Walter Sweeney MP in response to something he had said in a TV interview about a vote on equalising the age of consent for gay people. His reply showed him to be surprisingly ignorant of the law; he seemed to be under the impression that gay relationships - such as mutual masturbation - were already legal under the age of 21, as long as buggery wasn’t involved.
Someone mentioned the BBC avoiding the question of how badly the Lib Dems did in Henley. After Crewe and Nantwich, there was wall-to-wall repetition of the fact that the Conservative party had gained a seat from labour in a by-election for the first time since Ilford North in 1978 - complete with archive footage of Vivian Bendall. It is of almost equal significance that the Conservative Party won by such a big margin against the Lib Dems - but we haven’t been bombarded with the BBC comparing it with Beaconsfield 1982.
Meanwhile, perhaps the Lib Dems will put out a bar chart to illustrate their tremendous triumph of reducing the Con:LD ratio from 2.057 to 2.045.
Result of Diss By Election [South Norfolk Council] contested on Friday 27th June 2008.
Eloise ELLIS Con 1041 56% -1.7%
Trevor Wenman LibDem 768 41% -1.7%
John COWAN Lab 63 3% +3.4% - didn’t stand in 2007
Total 1872 100%
Turnout 33.44%
Con Hold [Maj 273]
This by-election was caused by the death of Brian Clark Taylor [Con] in April. It was held unusually on a Friday to avoid a clash with the Royal Norfolk Show and to co-incide with market day.
The turnout was the same in the ward as the whole-district election in 2003 as a result of a keenly fought by-election against the LibDem, who were smarting having lost the Council last year.
Interestingly there was an absolute zero % swing between LibDem & Conservative, which I’d explain by a rigourously targeted & complete telling & knocking up operation by both sides.
Last year, Conservatives won South Norfolk Council taking 20 seats from the Liberal Democrats, the joint highest swing of any Council in the May 2007 elections [an honour shared with Bournemouth, who also took 20 LibDem seats]
I think that at least some of the Labour lead must be explicable by reference to a sort of positive feedback: the Conservative’s poll leads have become self-reinforcing. There is a sort of momentum to polling, as people see these majorities growing they tend to read them back into politics. They think, if the polls look like this Labour must be doing something very deeply wrong - and so the polls worsen still further.
Read more of my views at my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/
156 - “I thought being a son of the manse gave Brown a good deal of social class?”. Is it a requirement that Scottish Labour MPs should be ’sons of the manse’?
Which reminds me of a newscutting collected by the great Fritz Spiegl: “Apology. In our report of the marriage of Mr XXX and Miss YYY we said that after the honeymoon they would be living with the bridegroom’s father. We should have said that they will be living at The Old Manse.