Happy first anniversary Gordon
June 27th, 2008
Will this have an impact on Brown’s survival?
As predicted and recommended here over the past week the most certain bet on the Henley by-election was that Labour would lose its deposit which they did dropping from 6,862 votes at the general election to 1,066 and end up in fifth place behind both the Green party and the BNP.
With the Lib Dems fighting hard it was always going to be that the Labour vote would get squeezed and in the event the overall percentage of 3.1% was not as bad as the party has seen in other similar contests. In Winchester in 1997, for instance, Labour was reduced to just 1.7%.
But given the current precarious position for the Prime Minister the result could ratchet up the pressure and raise further questions about his future.
Perhaps the most significant thing about Henley is that alongside Crewe and Nantwich it shows that the Conservative have a proven capability of doing reasonably well in by elections - a form of campaigning that they have struggled with for decades.
The Lib Dems will be disappointed that they didn’t get closer and this might have consequences for their general election strategy. How much effort should go into trying to win Tory seats or should all their focus go into defending what they have got and looking for opportunities against Labour?
There will be relief in the three mainstream parties that it was the Greens and not the BNP who finished in third place.
Mike Smithson
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Isn’t Clegg’s strategy to position the LDs as a safe haven for anti-Labour tactical voting, in contrast to their historical position as wannabe Labour-owned puppies?.
In which case you’d expect soft and footloose Labour-to-LD votes to go back to Gordon as people cotton on (as in the YouGov poll), and you’d expect no significant boost in the LD vote in safe Tory seats, but you might find a lot of Tories newly prepared to vote for them in LD-Labour marginals come the election.
Of course, if people are going to switch straight from Labour to Tory then it’s all pointless, and there won’t be any room for a third party at the next election anyway.
“Will this have an impact on Brown’s survival?”
Sadly, probably not. After Brown survived the disasters of the local elections and C&N, and the near-miss of the 42 days vote, it’s difficult to see him being forced out over losing Henley, where Labour never expected to do well in the first place. This result looks terrible for them, but the Labour line on it is already clear:
(i) This was a by-election in an ultra-safe Tory seat they never had a hope of winning, and didn’t even bother to campaign in.
(ii) The collapse in the Labour vote is due to Labour supporters tactically voting for the LDs. This excuse doesn’t work, as the LD vote didn’t go up much, while the Conservative one did, suggesting voters are switching straight from Lab to Con - but that won’t stop them using it.
Having said that, of course, it’s still a humiliating result to greet Brown on his first anniversary in No.10. While I don’t think it’s quite as bad as the results of Crewe & Nantwich, the message is the same: Labour are hated at the moment, many of their former supporters would rather stay home or vote Conservative than turn out for them, and so it’s difficult to imagine them winning anything as long as Brown remains leader.
Paging Big Tall Tim - please send your tenner to the doggies at:
Babbington Hall Rescue,
Babbington Hall
Westby Lane,
Awsworth,
Nottinghamshire,
NG16 2SS
2.
But to come fifth? Behind the BNP? Surely Labour MPs/councillors will have to ask themselves just how much of a liability Mr Brown is, and consider the alternatives.
Any Henley Labourites out there (statistically unlikely, I know) should console themselves with a bit of Schadenfreude: those 9,680 Lib Dem votes are as soft as hell, and will disappear like snow off a dyke at the next elections (Euro, council or GE) in the area.
The Henley by election 2008 signals the same thing in England as the Moray by election 2006 did in Scotland: it is time for a change and the Lib Dems are not going to be the agents for that change. In Scotland it was the SNP who went on to a historic election victory. In England it will be the Tories. The Lib Dems are going to get hammered in the south of England.
Hearty congratulations to the Tories on what is a wonderful result. Just as impressive as C&N, in its own way. And even more impressive when one considers that the Tory candidate was rather mediocre (to put it mildly). Come on chaps, admit it!
To all you pb.com Lib Dem rampers out there: thank you!! You have made my June 2008 one of the most pleasant months in a good while. ‘Egg on Face’ is putting it mildly. If you are not depressed enough, just consider this fact: in 2006 you pb.com Lib Dem rampers hyped up how you were going to humiliate the SNP in Moray. You chumps came 3rd, but then, most delicious of all, the Moray Lib Dem vote utterly collapsed in the 2007 Scottish general election. And the Moray Lib Dems managed not one single councillor in the entire Moray Council in 2007, and that was under STV proportional representation! Lib Dems Losing Here!!
To while away the hours sometime I am going to read some of pb.com’s Moray by election threads and highlight the most hilarious Lib Dem ramping idiocies.
As I said here a few days ago: the Henley result will lead to profound Lib Dem disappointment, followed by a scything at the subsequent polls. Remember: you only have yourselves to blaim. You chumps.
One year on - and Gordon has lost his Party 83% of its vote at Henley.
Think what he can do with two more years! Losing 90%+ must be achievable, Gordon!
Henley has been crawling with LibDems for weeks, throwing the kitchen sink at the constituency. But they finished further behind the Tories. They knew from their canvassing a week ago they were in for a poor result - so a massively over-hyped call went out to get their workers in. But they chose to parachute in a carpet-bagger - who then insulted the intelligence of the voters with his “I’m the only person who can look after your local interests” bull. The LibDem result could have been significantly worse if only the Tories had chosen a candidate who projected a better image - especially, I think, if they had chosen a woman.
The LibDem’s nineties play-book now looks very tired - and is easy to counter. They need a new image - time to pension off the orange “Winning here!” triangles, the ridiculed bar charts, the faux “local newspapers” and the “two-horse race” leaflets. Time to stop collectively patronising the voters - give them a lot more credit. Some of their literature was woeful. And they should stop using the media (this site included) to peddle patently false claims about how well they are doing (and how many posters they have put up!) It just comes back to haunt them when someone does a basic check.
But mostly the LibDems need some policies people can associate with them - and some savage attacks on a deeply unpopular Government. And, perhaps, a different leader to deliver them. Or else 13% beckons at the next general election.
Hello! What a BRIGHT sunny morning from Bangkok.
5th. They came 5th. FIFTH. Someone strike a match on Gordon Brown’s dismal fat arse, and light me a big Cohiba.
Heh. lol!
5th!
Still, Labour do have the consoling factor of only being EIGHTEEN points behind in the latest polls, rather than their usual FIFTYSIX, and they can also point to the fact that it would have been quicker for the Returning Officer in Henley to name the Labour voters, rather than count them - which must give the local Labour party a cosy “family” feeling.
5th. OMFG. 5th! This has surely never happened before to a governing party? Beaten by the loony Greens and the reviled BNP? Crivens, bejasus and lawks amercy.
If Brown isn’t putsched now, we now he never will be. What are Labour MPS waiting for? Gordon to sexually molest the Pope live on Match of the Day? It simply doesn’t get any worse than this.
Full marks for effort Gordon!
“The prime minister has spoken exclusively to BBC Scotland about the future of the NHS and the pioneering eye surgery that saved his sight.
He said he had never expected the surgery he had in Edinburgh to last so long.
When Gordon Brown was a student in Edinburgh, he was kicked in the head during a rugby scrum. He suffered a detached retina, which left him blind in one eye. Not long afterwards he was admitted to Edinburgh Royal Infirmary with vision problems in the other eye.
“
But here is the bad news: N-O-O-N-E I-S L-I-S-T-E-N-I-N-G! Shall I shout that again Gordon? Cos you appear to be going a bit deaf. And seriously depressed. Ambulance to South Queensferry, pronto!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7476287.stm
(PS. Does Labour realise yet that the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary is actually under the Scottish National Health Service? Which is a responsibility of the Scottish Government, led by First Minister Alex Salmond, and not of the English government, led by the English first minister Gordon Brown.)
I guess Labour could also console themselves by saying this is a leafy, affluent chunk of nice Tory southern England, not their obvious kinda parish, so a catastrophic and historic decline to FIFTH place might not be repeated everywhere.
For instance, Labour might hope to do better in working class white constituencies, following the introduction of their new law to racially discriminate against working class white people.
Alternatively, they could hope to prosper in liberal and university-ish seats, following their proposals to allow six week detention without charge.
Maybe Labour will ALSO hope to do a bit better in Scotland - except, of course, that they are actually in remarkable and swift decline due to the SNP.
But let’s not get too paranoid. Surely Wales is always a safe bet for Labour - but, erm, no it isn’t - as we have seem from the locals they are likewise in mind-boggling collapse in Wales - and are now equalled by the Tories in councils, and under attack from Plaid and the LDs.
So. That leaves…. er…. the inner northern cities and a couple of ethnic seats.
By my reckoning, Labour can now expect to win two seats at the next General Election. Moss Side and Leicester. And Leicester’s looking a bit vulnerable.
Let’s not exclude Darling Alastair from the festivities. He has quite a bit to cheer him on.
When he took on the job as Chancellor from the Boss, the FTSE 100 stood at 6527.6. Last night it closed at 5518.2.
That’s a fall of 1009.4 points, or 15.46% in one year.
He, at least, has the consolation of knowing that our Gord still holds the record with a fall of 1067.3 points between June 2001 and June 2002.
Incidentally, the FTSE at close on Friday, 26th June 1998 - just ten short years ago - was 5877.4.
Now you know why your pensions are mucked (spelling?) up.
Correction: Gordie Broon’s hoose is actually in North Queensferry, which is on the north shore of the Firth of Forth, not in South Queensferry, which faces it on the southern shore. I wouldn’t like Gordie’s ambulance to get too delayed…
I am well pleased by this result. Interesting that the Beeb are treating the Con to LD margin as an official secret, I wonder why.
For both by-elections the long term resonance will be from the defeat of the LD machine by the Tory machine. The electorate need to see real election victories, not opinion poll claims to believe and a big section of the electorate need to think they are voting for a winner. It is no accident that Rennard hit on the Lib Dems Winning Here bollocks.
These two by-elections have provided the proof that Tories can beat Lib Dems that the electorate needed. The swing then produces a greater swing. We saw the converse in 1997 when the Beeb led every news prog with the Tories are going to be hammered. Yes, we were but without the ramping John Major could have had 230 or 240 seats.
However, one thing I was always going to say after this by-election, regardless of the result, what on earth was Boris doing, provoking this by-election in the first place. This, not H&H was the by-election which should never have been held.
It has been a triumph for Tories as it happens but that is because of events outside Henley not within Henley. Boris could have lost us this seat and confirmed all the Lib Dem MPs in their seats.
I am sure we are all awaiting the considered opinions of Long Tall Tim, Icarus et al.
BTW, if anyone responds that Boris gave a commitment to stand down, that is my point, he shouldn’t have done.
‘Clinton praises global work of ‘Scottish mafia’’
“Flanked by the Scottish philanthropist Sir Tom Hunter, the modern-day Carnegie who plans to give more than £1bn to good causes, and Douglas Alexander, the Paisley MP and Minister for International Development, Mr Clinton joked that the “Scottish mafia” was a force in global development.
“Between Tom, Douglas, Gordon Brown and whoever else there is, Scots have more influence on the course of world affairs than at any time since the 18th century,” said Mr Clinton.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2366982.0.Clinton_praises_global_work_of_Scottish_mafia.php
Please book a comfy seat for us at the UN Mr Clinton. We’ll be along in a short while…
In the contest for who could get the most votes out of the slogan British Jobs for British Workers it appears the BNP beat Labour!
This result is even better than I expected for the Tories, as I slightly over-estimated the LibDem vote.
342 I’ll put my head over the parapet and give you all a laugh although if I’m wildly wrong I’ll have a keep my opinions to myself in future.
I think we might have a turn-out of about 50% with a result as follows;
Tory 20.0k
LibDem 11.5k
Lab 1.5k
Others 2.0k
I think this is equivalent to a small swing to the LibDems, but both the main parties and to a lesser extent the BNP benefit from a Labour melt-down. I base this on three factors:
1. Nothing has happened in the last few weeks to make Tories want to vote LibDem.
2. The LibDems did themselves no favours by importing an outsider as candidate.
3. The seat is adjacent to Cameron’s and the Cameron glow is strong here in the Thames valley.
by Fernando June 23rd, 2008 at 4:47 pm
One factor which has always concerned me about predicting a Tory landslide in 2010 was the resilience of the LibDems especially in the south of England. Just as C&N persuaded me that the Tories could defeat Labour in the North, I now think they have a realistic chance of picking up 30 to 40 LibDem seats. In previous general elections the Tories largely ignored the LibDems; Cameron has specifically targeted them and I don’t think they have yet come to terms with that. People don’t have strong prejudices about the LibDems, which means they can pick up votes easily. But it also means their support is lukewarm.
When was the last time that the Conservative and Lib Dem (or equivalent) parties were 1st and 2nd in a parliamentary by-election, with
(a) a Conservative majority of more than 10,000?
(b) a Con:Lib ratio of more than 2:1?
Answer to both: Beaconsfield, 1982 (Con 23,049 Lib 9,996).
To my mind the collapse of the Lib Dem vote is the story here - in the You Gov poll and at Henley.
Labour are dead and no amount of dancing on their grave will change that. But so too are the Lib Dems fading fast.
This is a truly dreadful result for the Lib Dems. They should have got a substantial swing, despite the polls:
1.
This is a truly dreadful result for the Lib Dems. They should have got a substantial swing, despite the polls:
1.
Whoops pressed the wrong button!
1. Crap literature. The LD’s have to stop playing silly games. They must concentrate on issues.
2. Rennard must go. A poor performance in London, C&N and Henley, all organised by Cowley Street, now contrast very badly with the many very good performances by other LD Campaign Groups elsewhere in the country in May.
3. The Labour vote is not coming to LD’s. They are obviously perceived as failing to addresss the issues that concern voters.
BBC - Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said the result showed Mr Brown’s days in No 10 were numbered.
“Labour’s days are well and truly over and it is the Liberal Democrats who are challenging the Conservatives in the south and Labour in the north,” he said.
That was inspiring, Nick. Any more gems like that for us to get excited about.
21. Yes, I am sure Cammo is feeling “challenged” by the Lib Dems, having just beaten them by a two to one margin.
If this is a challenge by the Lib Dems, what does a lacklustre Lib Dem performance look like?
5 Stuart, a good and perceptive post. I agree the big story last night concerned the LibDems not Labour. I see a very difficult period for them. The Libdems are not really in control of their destiny. They are not big enough to set the political weather. Electors vote for them when they don’t want to vote for one of the other parties. At the moment I can’t see any reason why an erstwhile LibDem in the south of England would not vote for Cameron’s Conservatives.
When Alastair Campbell became the ‘news’ he realised that his time as communications supreme for Blair was at an end. Now that Rennard’s by elections tactics are in danger of becoming the ‘by election issue’ isn’t it time he passed the baton to someone else. These tactics are: character assassination of opponents often based on flimsy evidence, tons of often poorly-produced leaflets delivered daily and the ramping up expectations. They were flogged to death at Henley and we have just witnessed their funeral.
22 - Well quite. Looking at it the Conservative vote share increased by almost twice what the Lib Dem vote share increased by. Also am I right in thinking that only the Conservatives and Lib Dems retained their deposits?
9 - Leicester will do it’s bit
…although i fear Leicester East is beyond redemption 
Lib Dem candidate said
“… I have found no positive enthusiasm for the Conservative alternative.
Was he pre-programmed to say that? How many more times do Labour and the Lib Dems have to be caned by the Conservatives before they drop that silly soundbite?
27 - Let them keep saying it. Hopefully they will still be saying it on election day 2010 to make sure the Tory vote comes out and gives Cam the majority he needs.
I actually am starting to seriously think we’re in for a 1987-type result overall.
My god the Lib-dems are so like children. Its all “look at how grown up we are, and ready for the big bad world of government” when they do well and “we’re only little” as they disappear behind mother Browns skirts as soon as things look difficult.
Do you remember how it was all “can’t wait for Henley” after the London victory. Personally I can not now wait to Winchester, Romsey, Portsmouth South….
The LibDems are now officially the Not Labour party, as opposed to the Not Conservative party that they used to be. This will have big consequences for the general election.
If they are smart, they will target Labour not Tory seats.
30 - “If they are smart, they will target Labour not Tory seats.”
They have shown scant awareness of the tactical opportunity so far.
30 “The LibDems are now officially the Not Labour party”
Except they are the “Not Labour Party but sort of bestest friends really with Labour Party”. Otherwise they would have voted to kill Lisbon ratification. That might have given the voters of Henley some reason to reward them. But Clegg’s europhilia wouldn’t let them.
I really would not be surprised at several LibDem MP’s defecting to the Tories before the next election. But not too soon before -they wouldn’t want to give their new LibDem challenger time to get their act together.
So what happened to the Lib Dem surge then ?
I’ll leave the proper analysis to you expert types, and thank our host and others for flagging up the bet on Labour losing its deposit, good work indeed.
31. Look at Cleggs comment above from the BBC (21). We oppoos the Conservatives in the South. Labour in the North.
“But Clegg’s europhilia wouldn’t let them.”
Its his MEP pension that means he has to be a loyal servant of the Borg.
29 There was certainly plenty of “Yay! Boris won! Now we get Henley” going on here from the LibDems….
Now, Mr Oaten - about that by-election…..
27. The Lib Dem losing candidate said the same in Crewe and Nantwich as well. Without being too partisan that really underlines how feeble the Lib Dems and their candidates are if people are preferring to vote for someone who they claim to have “no positive enthusiasm” for. Hardly an endorsement of enthusiasm in the Lib Dems and their ambulance chasing campaigns.
Anyway they would say that, wouldn’t they.
30. Serf - “If they are smart… ”
But smart they ain’t. Witness Lab Dim posters like Mark Senior. He is too busy ‘hating’ the Tories to see the electoral juggernaut about to hit his baby buggy.
One other observation about Henley. Given the number of leaflets (which hacked off EVERYBODY I spoke to) and the number of activists crawling around every hamlet (mostly not on bikes) this by-election had a carbon footprint the size of a small European country. Might I suggets that the Returning Officer should be empowered to limit the number of leaflets which could be sent out by or on behalf of a candidate to say three? With a stiff fine imposed for anyone who breaches it. Maybe with a right to ask the Returning Officer (in exceptional circumstances) for a fourth (eg if somone has slandered their candidate and they need to set the record straight). And this to apply from the moment the vacancy for the seat becomes known. Certainly the voters would thank us.
34 - Look at results, C&N a Labour seat Lib Dems drop 4% of their share. Henley a Conservative seat Lib Dem share goes up but Conservative share goes up further. Lib Dems may be fighting on two fronts but the evidence is they are losing on both!
Good to see that the Tories now seem to have “got” by-elections. Obviously Bromley was a wake-up call.
The dog that didn’t bark is UKIP. Surely Henley had potential for them to get a good result but they could only scrape 2.4% behind even Labour.
40 The other thing the Tories have now “got” is a very enthused activist base, happy to travel to help out. ANd alot more councillors, even since Bromley.
I humbly differ with the esteeemed posters who think this result is worse for the Libs than it is for the Labs.
Sure, it’s poor for old Europhile Cleggy. But we always knew that 2005 was gonna be the LDs’ electoral peak.
That election came after the Iraq war, with an unpopular Labour government and a still-ineffective Tory party: i.e. optimal conditions for a pacifist soft-centre party; the 2005 vote therefore pushed them to orgasmic heights (by their standards).
But post coitum omnia animal tristes est. After 2005, there was bound to be a falling off, especially as they then swapped an alcoholic leader for a gaiter-wearing pensioner, followed by a risible willy-waving fop who lies about Europe.
So the fall in Lib Dem votes was and is predictable. And it will continue. What was not predictable is the utter meltdown of Labour.
Fifth. FIFTH. They were FIFTH. This is historic.
What’s more, I fail to see how they can change this. Even if they swap leader, they are on the wrong side of every argument - tax, education, Europe, the economy, liberty-versus-authority, they just keep getting it wrong wrong wrong.
And now we have Harriet’s Brilliant Bash-the-Whitey Bill, to alienate what little support they have left in their “core”.
I can see Labour polling under 25% in the general election. In that situation, would they still constitute the official opposition?
Morning all. Just seen the result. Good result for the Tories. Poor result for the Lib Dems. Disaster for Labour. UKIP should give up.
Jack’s ARSE will be sore.
Where are all our Lib Dem friends this morning? Can’t wait to see what spin they put on this.
41. UKIP are finished. I think eurosceptics (e.g. me) have finally realised that the only way we are ever going to get some decent democratic changes in Britain’s relationship with Brussels is by electing a firmly, unitedly but not rabidly sceptic Tory party.
Expect the Tories to mop up all UKIP’s votes in the GE, and many of their votes in the euros.
45 - try not to do spin. Very disappoiting for the LDs. Good for the Tories. Bad for Labour. Very bad.
47 - in fact the Tories are pretty much unstoppable at the moment. But tides can turn.
What surprises me is that Labour could find as many as 1066 people in Henley to vote for them! Most of these votes must have been from the hard of seeing! This is much more BNP country, I’d have thought - them, and other far-right parties.
Well done, Cameron’s Conservatives. Go home and prepare for government!
47/48 - SBS that is a reasonable assessment. We will see if Mark Senior and Dan agree
47. You’re always very fair minded SBS. I was thinking more about the rampers that have been posting in the last few days.
49. 1066, arrow in the eye, lost power to the Europeans. It all fits.
BBC’s website newspaper round up, today’s batting order.
“1.On a day when there is little agreement on the main news, there is still common ground - the photogenic qualities of Russian tennis player Maria Sharapova.
Even in defeat - her face contorted in frustration and despair - she dominates the front of the Daily Mail, the Times, the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph.
The Times says her winning opponent was motivated by a hatred of her provocative tuxedo and shorts outfit.
She may be “in fashion,” but she’s “out of Wimbledon”, says the Guardian.
2. Labour’s poor performance in the Henley by-election, where it ranked fifth, is dubbed by the Independent as “disastrous” for Gordon Brown.
It asked a range of experts what he can do to recover. A public relations expert suggests “a charisma implant”.
A fashion designer says “he’d be better off getting kicked out for trying to do what he believed was right”.
The Telegraph doubts there is a remedy, saying “no leader has clawed his way back from such low ratings”. ”
Perhaps someone ought to start printing souvenier ‘GMG’ T shirts, bog rolls, and mugs. Will the knives be raised? Gordon Brown is an one man electoral disaster, a polling tsunami, hell bent on destroying NuLab. Perhaps some reporter might just bump into Cherie Blair and ask, did you sit up for Henley?
Paging Gabble - how’s life in the Bunker today? Wearing your cricket box? Those “bodyline” mobile phones can hit anywhere….
YouGov! Henley! Cleggover is soooo over:)
Not even BBC news online can spin this as being bad for the tories. They do lead with polling day in Zimbabwe though (does anyone know where I can back Mugabe).
0.81% swing LD to C
The Lib Dems campaign shed sweat and treasure and end up with a very bad loss.
Labour may not remove 5th placed Brown due to the institutional stupidity within their party. I do expect that the Lib Dems will have an internal bust up over their successive by election failures.
Will the famed Lib Dem incumbency be the next tenet that the Conservatives will break? Afterall in 2005 the Lib Dems lost more to the Conservatives than vice versa at a time when the Conservative lead on LD was only 10%. Next GE it could well be 25%+.
Annie Lennox (of Eurythmics fame) backs Scottish independence. Sorry no link cos on mobile. See Scotsman.
Will Wendy Alexander last the summer recess? I seriously doubt it after reading the Daily Record yesterday: the Scottish Labour establishment has now clearly had enough of her. Her real enemies are behind her, not on the SNP benches.
I look forward to BTT’s analysis based on all those posters he put up!
The even greater dividend from the Tory persepective is that the Lib-Dems always believe their own ramping (tell em their “winning here” enough and they believe it - regardless of the result) and they will stick with the status quo and lose most of their Southern/South Western seats! Hurrah
I think the so far uncommented thing on this is the tactical masterstroke from the Conservatives of moving the writ so the by-election was timed for the Gordon Anniversary. Almost every story about this mentions the words “anniversary” and “humiliation” in the same sentence. It was clear from the word go that the Conservatives would play this hard to avoid bad headlines and that the general situation would help. The bonus is that by naming the right day they get the best stories they could wish for, putting the boot in on the first anniversary.
Two percent swing from the Lib Dems to Tories?
WINNING HERE.
Chortle.
49
Are the BNP a far right party? I thought they were ‘old Labour’ left.
57. Yes, I’m starting to doubt that the LD “incumbency factor” will save them this time. We are possibly witnessing a paradigm shift. People just want Labour OUT. And they will switch straight to the Tories to do it, quite happily - if that’s what it takes.
That could wipe out swathes of LDs in the south. Especially in the eurosceptic southwest, where the LD treachery over Europe has not gone un-noticed.
Back on topic, ish, I am happy to report than my predictions for Henley were way offbeam. I predicted a comfortable win for the Tories (got that right) but said it would be meaningless, and have no bearing on British politics - I got that wrong. Fifth place is seismic for a governing party. It’s a votequake.
Incidentally, in the reams of predictions on here by so many learned people (and I mean that sincerely) did ANYONE predict Labour would come FIFTH? I saw some predictions of fourth. But fifth??
And has that ever happened before to a governing party? Rod Crosby?
60 And Brown’s second anniversary (if that should miraculously occur!) will be shortly after Labour’s “humiliation” of the Euro elections…
Whatever, there will be no third anniversary.
63 - I don’t know about governing party but last time it happened to a Major party was in 1976 in Walsall. See we are back in the 70’s all we need is a new Abba and a flares revival.
Just a pity that UKIP didn’t beat Labour as well.
Sean; come on! You and I would have settled for a 5th placed Labour and an utterly humiliated LibDems 24 hours ago! Give them some dignity …
65. I suspect this has maybe never happened to a governing party - coming fifth in a by-election. Or indeed any election. But I could well be wrong. We need Andrea or Rod to assist.
41/46
I think UKIP will do OK at the EU elections. The Conservatives seem to have a problem with their MEP candidates, they’re coming across as pro-EU, and corrupt.
30 The problem with the LibDems turning their attention to fighting Labour is that most of their MPs won their seats from the Tories. You are asking them to forego their seats in exchange for other candidates winning seats from Labour, a degree of self-sacrifice not usual in politics.
Also, in general elections as opposed to local elections the Libdems have not had much success against Labour. They have long been strong on Merseyside but have only really won ex-Tory seats in the area even in the 1980s when Labour was very weak. Similarly in Sheffield, Clegg’s seat was Tory. I can see Labour voters voting BNP, Tory or abstaining. Some will go over to the LibDems but I’m not convinced the Libdems are going to be able to compensate for losses to the Tories.
I recommend to you a 19 year old Lib Dem who understands better than the 24 person LD campaign dept, 3 of the 4 main reasons that the LDs did so badly at Henley. The 4th reason IMHO was the selection of a carpet bagger. John Dixon is one to watch for the future.
“1. We were too negative.
2. We failed to align ourselves with the anti-Labour vote.
3. Too much election literature (and poor quality).”
http://tinyurl.com/4btyrk
65. Ah, ABBA! Those were the days B-)
Morning Campers
A new day has dawned has it not ….. (Mmhhhh who said that ….????
)
So Henley ….
Hats off to the Conservatives, battered bonnets for the Lib Dems and tin hats required for Labour OUCH !!
The ARSE is feeling a tad jippy having clearly suffered a dose of over-extended yellow perils - not nice at the best of times.
Onwards and upwards dear friends, onwards and upwards ….
@69:
That’s because our MEPs are pro-EU and corrupt.
Alas.
45. See 44.
I think one lesson we Lib-Dems need to learn is that in the days of the interweb thingy, that what happens in by-elections no longer stays in by-elections. The contents of any press release or leaflet can be distributed widely, almost instantly, to be held as evidence.
69. You may be right about Tory MEPs. Cammo should take the opportunity of his sleazebusting drive and just sack ‘em all (apart from Hannan, obv) and get some decent sceptics in.
68 - Scanning Wiki, suggests this is a first. Liberals went 5th in Walsall as mentioned, then the Lib Dems finished 6th in Hamilton South in 1999. The only time the Conservatives have been lower than fourth it appears was in Blaenau Gwent.
7. Sean, I have to admit it you have a way with words.
nice one!
@73:
Feed the ARSE Jack. That’s the only way to stop an overactive outflow of yellow.
Morning All. Been taking some time out. Clearly a bad result for anyone apart from the Tories, BNP and Green. Not sure it’s quite a seismic shift. This is Henley after all. Not surprised Labour voters went out to the pub rather than the polling booths. And in hard economic times the extremes tend to do well at the expense of the centre. Dark days.
77. But the Gwent result was during Tory opposition, right? So this may be the first time ever a governing party has come FIFTH? Oh, I do hope so.
*glistens with happiness*
75 - That’s just a fancy way of saying, the Lib Dems should stop telling lies.
“Gordon Brown has announced plans for a “new wave” of public service reforms intended to put more services in the hands of social enterprises and independent providers.”
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jRmk8KQf-oX-mEU7TOXV6jO5jKsQ
Doesn’t copying so many of the Conservatives proposals just end up looking desperate?
Blimey, over a thousand good people of Henley voted Labour?
Really?!
Still, total and abject humiliation. The only downer is that surely now GB can’t survive and he is going to be planning his exit strategy?
But in the meantime, I’ll go back to laughing my ass off…
I’ve just noticed the ‘1066′ thing - certainly one in the eye for Gordon.
Lovely…
85. Bob Sykes: I’ve just noticed the ‘1066′ thing - certainly one in the eye for Gordon.
See my post 232 in the last thread
76 That might just happen but closer to the election - why give the de-selected a year to cause trouble?
Pleased to see my wicked thought that Labour might just be beaten by Greens and BNP was borne out. A very bad night for Labour but not unexpectdly so, a poor night for the Lib Dems, perhaps less expected. Before C&N a couple of Lib Dem posters recognised al was not well with Lib Dem campaign model as they looked back at Ealing and Sedgefield and recognised Conservative vote hadn’t been squeezed in either (though Cons hadn’t done brilliantly in either), C&N was a failure and now despite starting the Henley campaign well before Boris resigned they have slipped back a bit.
Rennard is still an electoral force to be reckoned with but the Tories have learned to blunt his attacks - partly because there is a pattern but also because they can now beat the Lib Dems in numbers of activists to be shipped in.
@81:
Please! I’ve only just woken up. I don’t need thoughts of a tumescent SeanT glistening with happiness.
63 “did ANYONE predict Labour would come FIFTH? I saw some predictions of fourth. But fifth??”
SeanT, I was scuppered by a poor UKIP showing:
“Even if C&N is wretched for Labour, Brown will still dither around before deciding to go. Coming about 6th in Henley (behind UKIP, a Fuel Protestor and the Yogic Fliers) might be the final straw. At that point, expect about 300 Labour MP’s to indicate they would sign an “in the name of God, go….” petition.
So, about the 27th June then. Birmingham City fans used to have an appropriate chant, whenever an opposing fan got led out by the police in a headlock:
“Cheerio, chererio, cheeri-o….”
27th June: Cheerio Day.
by Marquee Mark May 16th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
AOL have the startling headline “Tories claim Henley by-election win”
Henely not good and probably does mean that a review of by-election tactics required - More canvassing less leaflets. But all by-elections have their own quirks and are one offs. Electorates aren’t stupid and they didn’t believe that the Lib Dems could come close to the Conservatives so no bandwagon started. The fact that the Tories have copied Lib Dem tactics wholesale means that we need to keep ahead with something new.
Perhaps the brave thing to do would be to have a by-election in Winchester a big risk though a chance to get the Tories to spell out a set of policies that can be attacked.
I’d rather be a Lib Dem than a Labour Party member today.
Well……
…what a satisfying morning, on so many fronts.
Labour reduced to a laughable irrelevance, scrapping with the fascists and loonies for the odd thousand votes.
The Lib Dems humiliated too, with a result hilariously at variance with their absurd ramping on here. But note once again Dave (S) made a very sound prediction. Punters should pay attention to him and ignore the likes of Mark Senior, Dan Falchikov and other jokers. What happened to ‘another Bromley’?
‘Jack W’s’ prediction also proved to be hot air.
Bottom line - this a terrible result for Labour, but a worse one for the Lib Dems. Labour made no effort in a hopeless seat and got a hopeless result. In terms of the effort-reward ratio, C&N was worse.
Using the same framework of analysis, this is a very poor result for the Lib Dems. Huge effort in, negative result - not even the smallest ‘phantom’ swing, rather a swing against.
As others have already noted, the Lib Dems whole election machine looks tired, dated and irrelevant. They are facing major losses at the GE, Clegg has completely failed to give them a fresh, distinctive appeal and time is running out. Expect blood on the carpet….
I’d rather be a Lib Dem than a Labour Party member today
Like saying i’d rather have clamidia than gonorrhea!
I rather expected that by now we would have had Emily Stuka-Heinkel on, bigging up the Patriot performance….
94. EPC hasn’t been seen, TTBOMK, since OGH posted that she was using an invalid email address: that was a couple of weeks ago, IIRC, and this place has been much pleasanter to read in her absence!
Somewhat surprised Labour came fifth. Never expected them to win, of course.
Brown relaunch XXIII was announced yesterday. Apparently he’s going to carpet Britain with wind turbines. I’m neither for nor against how they look, but there are a number of serious issues with the Supreme Leader’s Master Plan.
1) If there’s no wind, there’s not enough electricity.
2) Windy places tend to be areas of outstanding natural beauty. We should absolutely not transform national parks and the like into windfarm colonies.
3) It’ll cost £100bn.
I suppose Brown deserves kudos for trying to promote renewable energy, but we ought to be looking at hydroelectric dams which provide constant electrical power regardless of weather. Tidal could be useful as, despite not happening all the time, it happens twice a day at guaranteed times.
Anyone else see Newsnight? The Spelman story seems to have some more flaws but I was left slightly uncertain. Smirking Crick left be in doubt as to whether the secretary proper actually agrees with their version of events, or if she’s even been contacted by Newsnight. At one point it was presented as fact, but later they were careful to say ‘it is claimed’.
Also amused to see the £600,000 of illegal donations investigation being handed over to the CPS was treated to a whole 23 seconds after 20 minutes of the eeeeevil Tories with a case for £25,000 a decade ago.
93 Would you woody ??
92 yp = yawns prodigiously.
APOLOGIES to Martin Coxall for the unfortunate image. I forget my post-lunch effervescence is your pre-muesli reading material.
CONGRATULATIONS to Marquee Mark, for coming the closest to predicting Labour’s actual fate of FIFTH. Yes indeed, if it hadn’t been for UKIP screwing up, you’d have been bang on the nail. Impressively prescient!
UKIP wipe-out is now important to the Cons. I guess 90% of UKIP voters are Cons and 2-3% in each seat in which they stand is very important. In the 2005 election , they cost the Cons at least 20 seats.
99 MM. Mike gave Ein Reich Emily a yellow (star) card for not providing a valid e-mail account from Nuremburg and the rest as they say is a thousand years of history !!
Well done to the Conservatives. Very surprised at the Lib Dem approach to this by election - tabloid style lit will not work in a well to do area like Henley - was there a tabloid reader vote to squeeze anyway?
I think Clegg is safe though. I’d have to question my membership if we went down the route of undermining the leader again.
Haha, just seen this pic (http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/3471/dearleaderxj9.jpg) which shows a slight misreading of the polls by the BBC.
99
The problem with that is that if UKIP were to disappear it is very unlikely that many of their voters would return to the Conservative fold. As someone with UKIP sympathies, though not a supporter, all I ever see from UKIP and their supporters is (mostly justified) attacks on the Tories and how they have been the main party of EU integration as far as the UK is concerned.
Whether it is true or not, it has become such a mantra that I see little chance of UKIP voters returning to the Tory fold. They are far more likely to choose one of the other minor parties such as the English Democrats.
I may never believe Jack’s arse again. Generally agree with Icarus above.
101, The Henley result has absolutely no negative effect on Clegg. Granted, it wasn’t a fantastic showing but it’s not like you were beaten by the BNP.
104 footsoldier. The ARSE is not for the faint of heart. Good-bye.
99. V. pertinent point, Svejk.
The collapse of UKIP does not, however, mean the collapse of euroscepticism, which is probably stronger now than at any time since UKIP was launched. An additional 2 - 3 % would certainly be useful to the Tories, but:
- at the moment they probably don’t need it for a working majority;
- adding 2 - 3% to an already high level of Tory support could have a “ninepins” effect. It was pointed out on pb.c a few threads ago that under our FPTP, once you exceed a certain level, the seats start falling like ninepins.
May I suggest that Cameron does not want too large a majority?
In general terms, it makes his backbenchers less easy to control;
If the “ninepins” effect kicks in, a large proportion of his majority could be principled, rather than pragmatic, eurosceptics.
I’m aware that this depends critically on candidate selection way down the list, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Great result for the Tories, poor for the Lib Dems and terrible for Labour. I think everyone is in agreement!
Off topic but to keep seant amused, Mark Mardell also thinks that Europe may cause difficulties for the next Tory government.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/
Is God having a laugh with us. The last time a group of immigrants were given preference over the indigenous population was in 1066.
No how many votes did that Labour chappie get…?
87. Ted is being modest (see 63). He guessed Labour in 5th - see 7 in ‘BNP 3rd?’ thread.
Not sure I agree with Mike’s opening remark that “the most certain bet in the Henley by-election was that Labour would lose its deposit”. The Conservatives hardly moved from 1 / 25 on Ladbrokes and 1 / 40 on Paddy Power for weeks whilst Labour’s lost deposit only managed to get to 1 / 5 in the last few hours before the polls opened.
I am also concerned that Mike got taken in by the Lib Dem ramping when he talked on Wednesday (I think) about a 3,000 Con majority. The only relistic way the electoral figures in Henley could stack up to give this would be for:
- a base being the May 2007 local elections, when Labour got less than 4% of the poll but only contested a minority of wards whilst the Lib Dems got 29% and the Conservative 51%,
- all the votes for Henley Residents and Independents then going to the Lib Dems and none to the Conservatives; this would have given the Lib Dems a majority in the town of Henley itself and
- a sizeable swing from Con to Lib Dem since May 2007 contrary to all the evidence of other election since then.
Of course Henley could have been different to the rest of the country as this was a parliamentary by-election. However, this would have been obvious only to those on the ground and as the actual result has shown this was not what was going on.
Perhaps there should be another Smithson rule: No matter how objective ones analysis is, personal prejudice will eventually be shown.
Great result for the Tories, and a mediocre one from our side. I’d put most of the reason on the blue side however; we’ve all seen the national polls and the Tories have sharpened their game for by-elections. It doesn’t mean that LD campaigning isn’t working, but the opposition to it is more structured and effective.
However I am confident that labour will take the headlines, as it fits much better into the media narrative than ‘LDs suffer 0.8% swing to Tories in true blue seat.’ Perhaps some LD campaign techniques could be refined, but those calling for the decapitation of Rennard are OTT. Someone posted on the previous thread that a 0.81 swing to the Tories would cost 4 seats nationally, including Eastleigh. If Chris Huhne holds on and we take a few off Labour, it is hardly doom and gloom as a few overetriumphant Tories want to believe!
105 Morris Dancer. the Lib Dem result is like a swan in a swimming pool - a fantastic amount of effort beneath the surface but going nowhere fast.
“Labour reduced to a laughable irrelevance, scrapping with the fascists and loonies for the odd thousand votes.”
As David Davis will be doing in a couple of weeks…
test
112. Very complacent I’m afraid. In a GE situation your party will not be able to direct the kind of resources it devoted to Henley at all the seats it is defending. Nowhere near. You have thrown the kitchen sink at this and still gone backwards.
But by all means persist in these self-delusions, let the army of yellow lemmings proceed ever faster toward the edge of the electoral cliff….
Jack, I only hope your arse is as wrong about obama as it was about Henley; although it is a faint hope, sadly.
114
But there’s no danger of Mr Davis getting fewer votes than the ‘fascists and loonies’. A Labour candidate in Haltemprice & Howden might not be able to say the same.
113 I know how Jack W likes these pictures - so he might like this one, of a sighting of the LibDem candidate leaving Henley for the last time:
http://www.pbase.com/chucklantz/image/41560105
sorry jack w @ 113, but the analogy of the swan would be better made if the swan was not “in a swimming pool” ie benign conditions, but rather “going upstream” ie against the flow.
Westmorland & Lonsdale majority of 267 will increase next time round……..the buzz is that the Blues are looking at a couple of females in the final PPC selection. If Chris Collier is chosen, that’s great……known for “kissing the vicar”,….if Mandy D is chosen….no, Mandy really knows better than that!
Just read this in the on-line Guardian. I wonder how long it will take before they correct it.
Henley
Result declared June 27 2008 01:42
CONSERVATIVE HOLD - John Howell
2008 By-Election Votes Share
%
John Howell, Conservative 19,796 78.9
Mark Stevenson, Green Party 1,321 5.3
Timothy Rait, British National Party 1,243 5.0
Richard McKenzie, Labour 1,066 4.3
Chris Adams, UK Independence Party 843 3.4
Bananaman Owen, Monster Raving Loony Party 242 1.0
Derek Allpass, English Democrats 157 0.6
Amanda Harrington, Independent (Miss Great Britain Party) 128 0.5
Dick Rodgers, The Common Good 121 0.5
Louise Cole, Independent (Miss Great Britain Party) 91 0.4
Harry Bear, Fur Play Party 73 0.3
Conservative majority: 18,475
Time of declaration: June 27 2008 01:42
Turnout: 50.3 %
re 111. Agreed Richard. But I still ended up a nice winner on the Labour deposit bet - and as I’ve been predicting Labour’s collapse is the big story
120
The swimming pool swan is paddling in circles -> ‘going nowhere fast’.
re 117. Why do you want the geriatric war-horse Test? A man who cannot use a computer and who hasn’t got the stamina to campaign at weekends. Your enthusiasm is mystifying.
114, difference being Labour have been crushed beneath the Conservative, Lib Dem, Green and BNP levels of support whereas Davis will win and Labour dare not even face him, preferring smears and proxies to elections.
110 “Modest? Moi?
Thought Greens would do better than BNP in Oxfordshire and likely then Labour would come 5th.
121 Think that’s the H&H result published early.
119 MM. Very good.
………………
More details of the three presidential debates emerge. The dates are 26 Sep, 7 Oct and 15 Oct.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/26/a-preview-of-formal-debate-formats/
Congratulations to the Tories here for an unambiguously excellent result. But no, it won’t have an impact on Brown’s position. This is the only by-election that I can rememeber where Labour MPs weren’t asked to help. My private judgment was that we’d be best off in this case with tactical LD voting giving a swing against the Tories, and I think that was probably the general Labour view among strategists and voters alike, but as it turned out we might have been better-advised to put a bit of effort in since the LDs weren’t breaking through anyway.
Suspect there were a good many cross-currents in the voting, with strong Tory turnout the key factor. Tory voter morale is undoubtedly the highest at the moment, which may be one reason we had an improvement in YouGov, which measures party support without certainty to vote.
121 Much wringing of hands in Guardian-land as the BNP saves its deposit!
Just time for a quick post as work computer system is down .
A good performance by the Conservatives , a little disappointing for the LibDems but nothing like as bad as Conservative posters would wish .
Those who say that the LibDems put loads of effort into the byelection are correct but so did the Conservatives with loads of MPs and footsoldiers from both parties working their socks off , the end result being a negligible swing between the 2 parties .
Comp system back up , time to do some work .
128, no leadership election, no referendum, no opposition to Davis, no campaigning MPs in Henley… does the Labour Party still do democracy when they can’t guarantee victory?
A resounding kick in the teeth for Brown and Labour. Two more years of a lame-duck, government in meltdown awaits us.
111 Richard, Mike called Henley better than most.
You do however remind us of the LD email ramping up supporters for some wonderful leaflet. It turned out to be a rather flaccid piece.
This will stick in the memory of all the recipients who will look more cynically at these things when the LD Leaders make a similar call in the future.
At two successive by elections the Conservatives have defeated the LD by election machine. The next by election is rumoured to be in Scotland and the SNP believe they will win a Labour seat, pushing aside the LDs.
Fluffy thoughts said: “The last time a group of immigrants were given preference over the indigenous population was in 1066.”
How many time so have to say it they are European citizens fully entitled to come here and pick fruit, become king whatever!
Polly, though happy with this weeks (largely ignored) policy announcements wants Gordon to go.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/27/gordonbrown.labour
122. I think it’s pretty clear the Lib Dems have become fixated by their past successes, and believe that all they have to do is repeat the familiar formula to reproduce them. Worse, it appears that some of their activists think that all they have to do is talk about the formula for the ‘magic’ to happen.
There seems to be no understanding that the situation has changed. As Stuart Dickson notes at the top of the thread, the public now want change, and the Lib Dems are not going to be the agent for it - certainly not in their present form anyway.
The voters aren’t interested in kicking the Tories any more, or looking for a ‘Labour-lite’ party, nor are they jaundiced enough about politics in general to want to vote for a ‘b*gger all of them’ party (UKIP’s decline also reflects this).
The Lib Dems rose with Labour and will fall with them too unless they do something to radically differentiate themselves.
Labour’s dreadful result shows that the anchor which now threatens to pull the Lib Dems down is a very heavy one indeed.
106 I suppose I will have to take it with a huge crystal of salt, next time JAck.
Much speculation above about Cameron sacking “corrupt” MPs. But surely he will use today to get rid of his embarassing Party Chairman, while press attention is elsewhere?
108. Interesting analysis by Mardell on Europe. I tend to agree with him. I think we will see a notable change in British relations with Europe under the next Tory government, but it won’t - unfortunately, in my opinion - be an immediate and radical shift to semi-detachment.
Yet.
I do expect repatriation of powers, as Mardell says (in return for British agreement to whatever it is Brussels wants next - a new budget etc). There will be legislation, already promised, ensuring that all future transfers of power to Brussels require national plebiscites: putting an effective lock on any further integration, at least involving Britain.
But will there be a referendum? Depends if Lisbon is passed by then. If its been passed, probably not. What would we vote on? I think Lisbon may well pass, so the UK will just have to bide its time.
Ergo I think the eurosceptics may be dissatisfied with Cammo’s first term, but not mutinously so.
If the Tories get a second term with a decent majority, then everything changes. Within five or ten years Brussels will, inevitably, be coming back for some very serious extra powers - an elected president, direct EU taxes, an EU seat on the Security Council. Etc.
If a Tory government is in power when this happens, as I think it will be, that’s when Europe will come to a head. It was Thatcher’s 2nd term that really changed the UK economy; it may be Cammo’s second term that solves the EU problem, once and for all - leaving Britain happily outside the Federal project.
It’s difficult not to make comparisons with the end of tory rule in the nineties but there is a clear difference and one that should make those still banging the drum for new labour very concerned.
At Major’s end the tories were weak and divided and tainted with sleaze but they were still identifiably tories, they had not vacated their position on the spectrum, just had it overrun by new labour. That shift, however, was the seed of labour’s eventual downfall and which makes their position more perilous now. Posters who just see a leader change or some such as the magic bullet, as suggested by the risible Charlie pre-last night’s spat and others, are not enough. Can labour do the necessary and reinvent itself as a centre left party though without being disbelieved? Their centre and even centre right policies, coupled with the nasty stain of authoritarian power, are no longer a credible position for them to take against a resurgent tory party and still historically strong third party.
Voters will switch to a party if they are coherent, non extreme and, above all, inspirational. Blair could have governed successfully further to the left and still kept labour in power, yet he, and the slack jawed followers of the new religion chose not to. So where the messiah now? Cruddas doesn’t really want it and who can blame him? Miliband could conceivably tack to the left but will voters trust that?
No, it must be done in opposition, a reinvention, a connection to the philosophical roots of the party.
If posters like the aformentioned Charlie find that “embarrassing” to have to read then all well and good; the complacency, the bubble, the outdated belief in superiority need to be dismantled. If labour goes into opposition as ‘new labour’ then it will be a matter of when they disintegrate and not if.
Too many new labour arrivistes are there for power before politics; having come from the labour movement, and as per millions of other deserted labour voters likely never to return, we might be sneered at by those who took over as being idealists, but at least we had an ideal, something to inspire, something to make us cohere.
So gabble, tyson, Nick P, Patrick, Jonathan, Roger, our prominent labour posters, where to now?
Not fighting Haltemprice & Howden will at least save Labour from losing another £500 deposit
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/0,,-1016,00.html
Things get even better for the Conservatives as Guardian give them 79.9% of the vote in Henley byelection.
Prats
Sorry that should have been 78.9%
#134
Where in Harriet’s Discrimination bill does it say white Europeans have more rights to pick fruit then wimmin-of-any-colour or illegal immigrants from Africa? Please don’t PC-me with your racist paint-brush.
124. Test is a look-the-statue-of-Mary-just-moved Roman Catholic, and despises Obama for his pro-choice stance on abortion. Therefore she supports McCain.
Meanwhile, we head deeper into the coming economic tsunami which will engulf debtor nations like the UK:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
137 footsoldier. No need to throw the babies bottom out with the bath water !!
@135:
Polly’s happy with Harriet’s bill to legalise sexual and racial discrimination?
Why does that not surprise me coming from the foul, bigoted, sanctimonious waste of ink?
@141:
It’s like somebody at Al Grauniad thinks the Liberal Democrats don’t matter.
I shall refrain from commenting.
131 - Good post. Whatever happened to taking the message to the people? I suppose it means no danger of PR if Labour aren’t bothered enough to try and retain as much support as possible.
One thing that is strange is that Labour clearly don’t think much of the line they’ve pushed for so long about lack of Conservative representation in the North, cities etc. Because, with the exception of John Denham (who has a vested interest) and the odd Blairite, Labour seems totally unconcerned about their impending complete wipeout in the South of England. Once you’ve been totally removed (even the odd councillor can make a difference) it is very difficult to recover.
I believe that the Blaenau Gwent result was the only time the Conservatives have finished fifth in a GB by-election, so there’s never been such a low point as a governing party. The Conservatives did stand in some N. Ireland seats, but I don’t know if (a) any were by-elections, and (b) if so, whether a fifth or worse was ever achieved.
In terms of the Henley results:
Con: Very good, but not spectacular. Almost impossible to do spectacular when starting with such a big lead. Comfortably seeing off all challengers and getting a decent sized vote is as much as could have been asked for.
Lib Dem: Disappointing for them but not worse. Increased share of vote but further back overall. Missed opportunity to sweep up a lot of Labour votes, but must have held most of their own from 2005.
Lab: Horrible result with the only consolation being that Henley was never even close to being a target. Embarrassing to finish behind Greens, never mind the BNP. This is not Newbury or Christchurch where Labour voters were tacitly or otherwise advised to vote tactically, the votes they lost were real ones, whether or not they mattered in the bigger scheme of things.
Greens: Very good to finish third, although more of a statistical quirk (the Greens have finished third in my local council ward with more votes than they got last night in Henley).
BNP: Similar to Greens. Will be pleased to have beaten Labour, but it’s not all that many votes really.
UKIP: Disappointing but in line with recent results. UKIP doesn’t really ‘do’ elections other than the Euros, but they should keep plugging away with the aim of doing very well in 2009.
Overall, it doesn’t tell us much that we didn’t know, but it does reinforce the information.
Perhaps now someone in the Labour Party, will see that there is no point in wasting time, effort and money in those seats in the South and Southwest where there is no hope of winning.
Far better to bite the bullet, and withdraw from those seats where the Libdem is the challenger, than suffer this humiliation.
‘Never reinforce failure’
May I congratulate Conservative on here for their victory in Henley. Hardly unsurprising, but a good result nonetheless.
As for the Lib Dems, a small increase in vote share can’t be spun as anything other than poor. I for one will be looking to the party leadership to conduct an honest assessment of the campaign. Its probably a good thing for the long run, as it looks like it will force some reappraisals.
Its a terrible result for Labour, though.
You probably would n’t go to 5 Live for in-depth political analysis but they’d been trying to find a psephologist to discuss the Henley result and had been looking in Yellow Pages under “s”.
So here are the seats that the Lib Dems hold notionally or other wise but will not be winning next time:
Romsey
Cheltenham
Eastleigh
St Austell & Newquay
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Carshalton & Wallington
Hereford
Taunton
York Outer
Torbay
Sutton & Cheam
Richmond
Cheadle
Portsmouth South
Southport
Newton Abbot
Leeds North West
Brecon & Radnor
Mid Dorset & North Poole
North Devon
Oxford West & Abingdon
Camborne & Redruth
North Cornwall
Berwickshire R & S
Argyll and Bute
SE Cornwall
Truro & Falmouth
Bath
Colchester
Winchester
Harrogate
North Norfolk
Perhaps the question we will all be asking ourselves next will be: Were you up for Clegg? He’s next on the list after North Norfolk.
Won’t happen, you smugly say? Muahahahahahahaha
Brush off your CVs you Lib Dem MPs and start looking at that Parliamentary Pension, cos what happened in ‘97 is coming right back at you. Its payback time!
@151:
‘Never reinforce failure’
Brown must go?
A quick question. When did Labour last lose a deposit in a General or Bye-Election. I’m wracking my brains for an answer
124 because he’s a moderate, anti-pork, pro immigrant Republican, and because Obama, whilst a quite brilliant orator and politician, is one of the most leftwing candidates ever to seek the presidency. His votes on everything from tax to not helping babies born alive after failed late term abortions are on the extreme left of his party.
its all policy for me.
139 ukpaul. Good analysis.
As for Labour, in the words of the old Wokingham Klingon “No change No chance.”
Our Gawd has to go by Spring 2009 to allow Prime Minister M******d a decent run to the general election. The alternative is a Conservative landslide a la 1997.
O/T - Just walked past Mr Harriet Harman (aka Jack Dromey). He really didn’t look alright, perhaps he realises that his wifes legislation will mean that he is in one of the few groups that it will be ok to discriminate against.
150 David H. Very sound.
157 - Yes but there is no guarentee that the gurning Foreign Secretary will be any good. I can think of only two people who have moved straight from FS to PM in recent times Douglas-Home and Callaghan. Home lasted a year and Callaghan led his party out of office not to return for nearly 2 decades. Hardly augurs well for the Milliboy.
156 test. McCain “anti-pork” !!!!!!
Well that does it. Nothing too much better than a bit of crackling on a fine leg of pork.
It’s Obama for me!!!!
It must be a slow day for news. The main political story on the BBC seems to be Spelman’s “nannygate” from ten years ago!
(NB Irony alert for the slower readers!)
Morning all,
have not time to read thru all the above - has there been any move in the spreads/fixed?
128- Nick- I hope that I am reading something in your comments- will not affect Brown’s position- i.e he is already a dead man walking, and the party will remove him in the near future. This election therefore did not make any difference.
The fact that you mention Brown’s position at all shows just what a predicament he is in.
O/T- would like to congratulate myself for picking up the 2nd national award last night for my service. Unprecedented apparently in pubic services. Shows that a bit of sly daytime posting on pbCOM doesn’t really hurt.
Political parties go crazy for by-elections. They throw time and money and big name politicians at the poor unfortunate electors, already abandoned (in one way or another) by their MP. Why? Because a by-election is an over-sized poll, the sort of poll that is so big that no can help but listen to. But it is a poll with one other crucial difference: the politicians can cheat. The politicians know who the sample is and there is nothing – no laws, no conventions, no scruples – stopping them from using all available means to change their minds. So: armies of button-men, volunteer fodder and big beasts descend on the electors of the constituency and bully, wheedle, bore and pulverize them into submission. The prize if you do it well? A boost in this quasi-opinion poll even if you’re not performing better, even if you haven’t gotten more popular. The by-election is a chance to win just by being dirtier, meaner and more resourceful than your opponents. The Lib Dems have been doing it for years…
Read more at my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/
128 - I do so hope Nick P’s complacency is genuine and shared by the rest of the PLP. Somehow, I don’t think it’s just spin, I think he does genuinely believe what he says at 128, and if so, then other Lab MPs must think likewise.
Sweet.
Could a Canada-style wipeout beckon?
155 If Brown does go very soon, Activists will be very busy shortly, GE b4 the end of the year… but I still dont think it will happen, Labour will be like Mr Micawber, hoping something will turn up, but it won’t. Best hope for Next Labour Leader is to come in at the worst point in the curve, and not be blamed for subsequent events.
Have we had Nick Palmers take on events yet? Are Broxtowe voters still telling him different to the rest of the electorate?
154 Old Hackneyed. Yawnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
Not another Tory UNS masturbastion fantasist
Get ye onto spreadfair with your spondolicks sucker !!
Jack W, why should we have to endure a year of unelected Prime Minister Millinerd? The guy is not quite as weird as Brown, but could grow to be given time. He has nylon hair - with birdshit in it. He reminds people of those gonks they used to put on their pencils at school. He may be fluent in Wonkese - but can he communicate in English? If he is the saviour of New Labour, they really are in a vat of pooh and breathing through a straw.
167 sorrey missed 128 and was typing when the other comments came in
147. Polly Tuscan-villa’s Guardian thinkpiece very lightly skates over the fact that it will henceforth be legal, if not downright compulsory, to racially discriminate against white people, especially white men.
I wonder why she doesn’t bang on about that bit? Labour should be proud of their Screw-the-Chav, Bash-the-Cracker, Stuff-the-Whitey bien pensant policy thrust. It could even give them a new slogan for the next election.
I suggest: Nee Blanke.
If I had had a vote in Henley, I would have voted LibDem. I always vote anti-tory.
The fact that 1066 Labour voters chose to waste their vote is a matter for them.
O/T - One to get seanT spluttering on his cocktails. Its those EU size queens again.
http://tinyurl.com/3eh27h
“Ealing rape victim will stand against David Davis”
“Ms Saward, who has been campaigning on behalf of the victims of sexual violence since she was raped in the infamous Ealing vicarage attack 22 years ago, said: “David Davis appears to be very concerned about ‘British liberty’. But what does it mean? I want men and women – including children – to be at liberty to walk the streets of our towns and cities without fear of violence in general – and sexual violence in particular; and to feel safe in their own homes and workplaces. And part of that ‘British liberty’ is to expect the law enforcement agencies to use every tool at their disposal to catch the people responsible for the attack – and to never give up.
“A search on the parliamentary website shows that David Davis’s only contribution on rape is to ask four written questions about statistics. A search on the Conservative Party’s website produces only two results for ‘rape’. And David Davis, Shadow Home Secretary, has nothing to say on either of them.””
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ealing-rape-victim-will-stand-against-david-davis-855414.html
Whatever is said now, the Lib Dems ramped Henley for all it was worth. Mystery leaflets, text messgaes from Clegg, accounts of how popular the Lib Dem candidate was in his “home” village, stories about John Howells - they ramped and ramped. Even during C&N the Henley bulletins were coming on.
Sorry Icarus, but even yaesterday the Lib Dems were circulating a leaflet saying that “pundits” were predicting that the result was too close to call! Come on, fair game, this is politics, but it was ramping none the less.
Incidentally, having read the so called newspaper produced by the Lib dems (it was disguised to look loke a free sheet and was not identifiable as a Lib dem leaflet). It was downright unpleasant and was not well received by voters.
As Dan Falchikov is so fixated at some 1994 by elections. I have looked up the South Oxfordshire District Council election results for 1995.
LD; 21 seats, Labour, 13 seats, Conservative 9 seats and Independents 7 seats. Rather says it all doesnt it.
I am certain that Conservative activists will preserve the Nick Palmer contribution. Utterly priceless - Labour abandons the most populous region of the country to the Lib Dems - officially from a Labour MP. That should help ensure that voters in the south know exactly what the Lib Dems mean to Labour.
Perhaps Labour MPs should have spent last night drumming up votes for their former leader on Blackpool Council, who went down to a historic defeat, having lost his seat last year.
169 MM. You have to because it’s how the game worked for the Tories in the past and for now Labour have the Conctitutional aces up their sleeve for another two years.
Don’t know if its been posted before, but Biased BBC has a screenshot of the BBC News last night showing the incorrect captions of voting intentions from YouGov.
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/3471/dearleaderxj9.jpg
124 because he’s a moderate, anti-pork, pro immigrant Republican, and because Obama, whilst a quite brilliant orator and politician, is one of the most leftwing candidates ever to seek the presidency. His votes on everything from tax to not helping babies born alive after failed late term abortions are on the extreme left of his party.
its all policy for me.
by test June 27th, 2008 at 9:18 am
McCain was is a moderate, I’ll give you that. He was pro-immigration until he had to tie himself up in knots in the GOP primary debates - he’s boxed himself into a much stricter position now. The idea that he is anti-pork, when half his team are from K-street…he is better than most, but by no means clean.
I’m still not convinced about Obama being a radical lefty. Throughout the primaries, he was to the right of Hillary on most issues except the war - healthcare, tax, business.
Republicans can’t keep claiming he has a far-left record and simultaneously castigate him for not voting often enough. The tax votes were almost entirely votes against Bush’s tax plans (which were stupid in many ways - McCain said so), not indicative that he is a socialist on economic matters. The abortion bill that you cite was NARAL-exempt - there was language there that could well have led to full-recognition of foetal rights, and thus a complete ban but in such a bill that would make anyone who voted against seem to be against newborn babies. Bad politics - nothing to do with policy.
Jill Saward writing in the Independent:
“…we need somebody to stand in this by-election who will say the national DNA database and CCTV are good things – for proof, just ask those victims who have seen their attacker jailed.
I am not a politician. But when a Shadow Home Secretary says nothing about such an important issue as sexual violence and then resigns over an issue of pre-charge detention which may not affect anybody at all, somebody has got their priorities wrong and somebody needs to get the issue of rape on to the agenda.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/jill-saward-british-liberty-is-about-living-without-fear-855378.html
50 - see my post in the other thread last night.
Why does this Guardian report keep comparing with 1997 results? Havem’t there been two General Elections since then.
164 Well, I was talking to a number of people from the Westminster village last night and the consensus was that the PLP is close to despair, but at the moment the hope is that either that Brown can be persuaded to fall on his sword or that the Cabinet will push him on to it.
There is also the view that a new leader would have to go to the country quickly, and MPs aren’t terribly keen on doing that just at the moment(!)
There are no overt (or even covert) plots or conspiracies but at the same time Brown’s position is so weak that he could be swept away by almost any unexpected crisis.
I don’t think the Henley result will be the tipping point, but nor do I expect Brown to survive for much longer.
173 So - EU demands under-sized Kiwis be crushed. What’s their policy on short-arse Aussies?
If this story had broken several days ago, it could have given UKIP those extra votes they needed to push Labour into sixth place in Henley. Damn media manipulation of this Government….!
re: SeanT and others.
Yes Fifth place is Labour’s worst ranking in history, and the worst for any government. For a “major” party in England, only the Liberals have equalled it, at Walsall North in 1976.
Rankings are a bit of a lottery though. A couple of hundred more votes and Labour would still be third.
So in itself, a curiosity, but I agree the psychological impact and its timing on the PM’s anniversary is wounding, and increases the pressure on Labour.
A disappointment for the LDs, but hardly a disaster. Their vote went up. During 1974-79 their vote was collapsing around them in almost every by-election.
For the Tories, a steady as she goes result. Nothing outstandng, and they kept-off the yellow peril. But it’s worth noting they were putting on 16-17% in similar safe seats in early 1979 (Knutsford and Clitheroe)…
139- ukPaul- an excellent post. You really have a great brain to you Paul.
Where to now? I was at a national local government event last night. Lot’s of chief executives, senior members. Hazel Blears spoke, but when she started listing the government’s achievements you could hear the groans, and very audible boos. This was their (Labour) constituency.
Certainly NuLab cannot communicate to the public anymore. People do not like the way they speak, and are not listening. This is important. Browns tractor production counts are just putting people off.
Labour have to find how to talk to the people. Cruddas is the only person at the minute I can think of who has the ability to speak in a way that is appealing. The press would have a field day if he became leader though. At
I am at a loss really though where to Labour? I would like to see them jettison their authoritarian populism for a start, and to shut up about their achievements, and to shut up about trying to paint the Tories as baby eaters. Take away those 3 elements though and there is nothing left.
I cannot see how the Labour party can reinvent themselves at the minute. Maybe they are finished. Many people here and elsewhere have commented that Blair’s strategy to make the Labour party a party of government was high risk. Once they lose government as is inevitable now (whoever is leader)- what is left.
“Senior Labour officials ‘to escape prosecution’ over secret donors row ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2200728/Senior-Labour-officials-%27to-escape-prosecution%27-over-secret-donors-row.html
I’d like to thank Harriet Harman’s timely intervention in Henley that saw Labour polling lower than the local Nazis.
Truly, it was a masterful bit of politics.
My first bet on a by election last night. Thanks to all those who convinced me that the Tories were going to prevail by more than 20.5%. Quite attractive odds for that on Betfair as well.
154. I take it you have never studied statistics? Last night there was a tiny swing - one hardly likely to take more than a handful of seats from the LD’s - and certainly not North Norfolk! Hoping you are a betting man, ’cause you will make my fortune yet!
182 In my view the PLP would wait until after the Party Conference. At that point they would be within range of the well the election will be within almost a year argument so we’re not taking the mick with the voters. Not too long to go that the voters rebel, just enough time for the new man to have a go. Like Goldilocks just right. Thoughts.
Has anyone else not had their William Hill Henley bets settled yet?
184. Thanks Rod, as I suspected - a historic disaster for Labour. As you say it’s all down a couple of hundred votes - but equally, a couple of hundred votes fewer and Labour would have been SIXTH.
Heh.
186 Gabble, are you flagging that in a “hee-hee, we got away with it!” manner? I do hope not.
“New Labour - more than the scum of its parts….”
178. Pork and lobbyist influence are two different things (although they can be tied together). McCain is certainly beholden to lobbyists now, and many of his newfound positions stem from that, but he has always been consistently anti-pork.
One seldom mentioned ramification of this is that he isn’t seen as much of a champion of his home state from his constituents, and many people like to see their senator ripping off the federal government and “bring home the bacon”. I wonder if this could have an effect in the Arizona result if Obama was on course for a landslide.
187 “LABOUR LESS POPULAR THAN NAZIS” has a certain tabloid ring to it….
re 8 Stuart I don’t think they do realise. As I remember there was a recent Scottish by election were a major issue was bridge tolls which had absolutely nothing to do with the local MP. And also we recently had to put up with the odious John Reid coming onto the radio to tell us about the wonderful benefits of Labour’s health and education policies when they had absolutely nothing to do with his constituents.
179- Gabble- what a horrible piece of populism!
@187:
And has the wonderful side effect of being absolutely true.
Well, in Henley.
196 That was Dunfermline West and Fife correct. The result clearly worked for them.
187 - Well I think ironically it boils down to authenticity. When Labour trolls “British Jobs for British Workers” then it is dogwhistling to the baser elements in its coalition. Those elements would probably prefer the real deal than a knocked off calculated alternative. Similarly when Labours policy kleptomania involves them in knocking off Conservative proposals then voters will probably go well we are getting the expensive imitation why not go for the genuine article especially as it’s less taxing!
Comment numbering I’ve just freed up a pile of comments in the moderation box so comment numbers will be all over the place.
Sally Hammond complained in 1999 that Spelman was paying her nanny from public funds.
Where does this leave the nanny’s story?
The tories have a lot to answer for!
“The revelation will prompt questions over whether David Cameron was told about the complaint when Mrs Spelman’s arrangements came to light recently.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1029851/New-pressure-Caroline-Spelman-resign-nannygate-expenses-row.html
195. If you scrap with Nazis for votes, you deserve to see your vote crumble to their level and below.
197. Yep Tyson - that’s what your beloved Labour is all about now -cowardly smears, cheap stunts, and crass populism. And that’s why your suggestion that they may be ‘finished’ could well be right. They are headed for a massive GE defeat, the consequences of which could be cataclysmic.
179. I remember very strongly one conversation I had with my Ethics professor at university. He argued very forcefully that one of the early markers of a slip into an authoritarian mindset was the “denial of a trade off”.
Many times in history we have had to curb back one ideal for the sake of another. ID cards during WWII for example. At the time it was argued by many proponents that there was a sad loss of liberty attached to such a scheme, but regrettably it was necessary to increase national security.
The arguments we’re hearing now go beyond this, in quite a dangerous way. Labour and its minions aren’t arguing that it is a beneficial trade-off to give away a degree of liberty for a degree of a security: they’re actually denying the trade-off exists at all. The “real liberty is to be free from fear” argument is redefining liberty to mean the same thing as security. These authoritarian schemes are claimed not to be a trade off, because it is claimed they increase our security AND our liberty, under this new definition.
This is a very dangerous development, and those left-of-centre politicos should not dismiss this new thought strand lightly.
193. Thoughts? No. I think Labour would be even more severely punished if they force yet another unelected prime minister on us, and then expect the electorate to just put up with it for, ooh, a year, or until Labour can be arsed to actually consult the people on who governs them.
The narrative of Labour Electoral Cowardice (no candidate in H&H, the non election, no referendum, etc) is already fierce and destructive; that would just make it five times worse.
If Labour dump Brown and anoint a new leader, they would surely have to call a GE pretty much instantly (i.e. within several weeks) - as nickc says upthread.
To my mind this is possibly the main thing preventing them from defenestrating Brown at the moment. Labour don’t want to fight a GE right now, whoever is leader.
“real liberty is to be free from fear”
That line, or variants of it, has been used by every dictator since the dawn of history.
206. yp “…that’s what your beloved Labour is all about now -cowardly smears, cheap stunts, and crass populism.”
As far as I know, Jill Saward is not Labour.
210 - Regardless, the article is misrepresenting David Davis’ position. In fact, reading the article it suggests that she takes broadly the same view on CCTV cameras.
179 Jill Saward is a worthy opponent because her views bring up the key issue that needs airing. Whether the justice system, designed around the presumption of innocence, the right to a fair trial knowing what you are accused of and by whom. the right to privacy and against being held in custody without charge or trial, can and should be compromised for national security or in case of certain crimes. If it should be compromised then to what extent and with what protections.
She is a one issue campaigner on sexual violence, she believes that protection of women and children would be served by a wider DNA database, by having consent forms enclosed with any condoms sold, by changing the rules of evidence and to an extent the presumption of guilt in such cases when it is the word of one person against another. Her case, as far as I can understand it, is that safety and security outweigh the possibility of occasional miscarriages of justice - that the good for the many outweighs the harm to the few.
43: ‘post coitum omnia animal tristes est’?!
I can stomach most of the drivel on this page, but not bad Latin.
‘Omne animal post coitum triste est’ if you don’t mind.
Educational standards these days….
159. On the abortion issue aside, as we’ll never agree about it. What other position is so “extreme left” about Obama? I’d say quite a few of his positions are centre-left (indeed most of them), but this constant desire for Republicans to shout “extreme” at anyone who disagress with them will be their undoing.
212. ‘that the good for the many outweighs the harm to the few.’
..and that line too, or variants of it, has also been a favourite for generations of dictators.
205 Unfortunately gabble I don’t think sleaze can be used in a partisan way in the way it worked for Labour in the 1990s - there is now a general view that MPs of all parties are self-serving and unprincipled when it comes the their salaries and expenses. This is because a few MPs - on all sides - have behaved in a self-serving and unprincipled way.
Banging on about it only undermines faith in the political system generally and does not move any votes.
I go along with those who see Henley as a disappointing result for the Lib Dems- but do not agree that they failed to pick up the Labour vote. I suspect much of Labour’s vote that bothered to turn out did switch to the LibDems, but that this was offset by 2005 Lib Dem votes drifting to the Tories!
208 I disagree. You could argue they would be more severely punished than if the New Leader went straight away but I absolutely cannot see how they would be more severely punished than Brown remained as Leader.
198. Given that Labour are more authoritarian than the BNP on 42 days etc, and given that Labour are the only party bringing in openly racist legislation (Harriet’s Hate-the-White-Man Bill), the headline:
LABOUR LESS POPULAR THAN NAZIS
is ideologically incoherent, as it implies Labour are actually distinguishable from vile fascist groupuscules.
189. Yet another case of badly drafted legislation from the Government. How many times in history have people been as guilty as sin but the authoroties have been unable, or unwilling, to make it stick?
212 - I believe it was the renowned jurist Sir Edward Coke who stated that it is better for one guilty man to be freed than an innocent man to be detained without foundation, or something to that effect. It has been a legal principle for about 500 years and I think you would need extremely good grounds for abandoning it.
re 212. Probably the most dangerous opponent for Davis is Walter Sweeney - Tory MP for Vale of Glamorgan from 1992-1997. He was a Maastricht rebel during that period and had plenty of run-ins with David Davis who was then a leading Tory whip. Sweeney’s now a local solicitor and is standing as an independent.
Someone asked when Labour last lost their deposit. I think the most recent example was at the Cheadle by-election, but it happens all the time when you get really tight Con-LD seats. I think the Labour vote in Winchester and Eastleigh for example is remarkably low.
Rarely happens to the Tories because there are far fewer tight Lab-LD seats.
It’s also notable that the Tory vote last night did not match that achieved throughout 1979-1992….
Anyway, I don’t understand why Gabble “triumphantly” keeps pointing out that Jill Saward is standing. Most people who generally support David Davis standing have no problem with it, i’m sure. The object of the exercise was to have a genuine debate and her standing gives a better chance of that happening.
It is amusing that Gabble argued for Labour standing (but campaigning on a “broad range of issues”), but then is having orgasms over somebody taking up David Davis’ challenge for a specific debate on the issues he wants to address!
[34] - Yes, of course, you oppose the Tories in the South and Labour in the North, but the important thing is how much relative effort do you put into those two separate tasks. This also has implications for the message your spokespeople put across in the media.
My judgement is that the same effort directed against Labour will bring the Lib Dems more reward than if it is directed against the Tories, so efficient use of your resources dictates that you should concentrate on the battles against Labour.
One of the notable features of the 2005 GE was that the Tories picked up a bunch of Labour seats due to a large Labour -> Lib Dem swing. The Tories even won one seat at the same time as their vote went backwards!
The Lib Dems showed that even where they started in third place they could take more votes off Labour than the Tories. It’s not good enough to say that you started in Crewe in third place. The Lib Dems should have the ambition to win Labour seats even from third place [though they should have put more effort in 2005 in getting to second place in more Labour seats].
The weakness of the Labour position is an open door, yet the Lib Dems are inviting the Tories to walk through first whilst muttering rude words under their breath. It’s pathetic, weak and childish.
213. Duncan.
Are you sure? We may both be wrong. Just found this on Everything2.com:
“Quite as interesting is the full quote: Triste est omne animal post coitum, praeter mulierem gallumque; “every animal is sad after sex, except the woman and the cock (= rooster)”.
“This is, I am now led to understand, by Galen (c. 130-201), the great physician to the emperors; though until I did a Web search just now to find the exact work, I had thought it was by Aristotle (who would of course have been read in Latin translation for most of history); and I have also seen it given to Ovid. But Kinsey goes for Galen.”
?!
185 agree with you on ukpauls post.
whither Labour? - hopefully it will return to being the party it’s supposed to be - clearly and unambiguously focussed on persuading people that the route to improving the lot of most people is through increased collective action and removal of barriers to personal progress - achieved via state intervention.
It means boring things like promoting the idea of public sports facilities, ‘gas and water’ socialism, genuine educational reform and a return to inspiring people to want to better themselves. A bit of optimistism and a welcoming attitude wouldn’t go amiss.
Posters like gabble though show that Labour have a deep seated ‘miserablist’ tendency and from this springs the authoritarianism and general hostility to their own voters.
The Daily Mash article on how much Labour hates its supporters was really just a statement of fact and not a satirical piece at all.
222. Might David Davis add euroscepticism to his civil liberties platform as a way to head off Walter Sweeney?
The Maastricht whipping is surely the weakest section in Davis’ CV. Sweeney might pull a few skeletons out of the cupboard!
my post (currently 228) was to Tyson now at 188 - just hating these comment renumberings!
224 - Despite the proliferation of candidates I think that the result bore similiarities to 1983.
221. Nearly right - “Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer” William Blackstone
yp at 138 I agree entirely, so much so I have quoted you on my blog. Hope you don’t mind.
re 229. My guess is that Sweeney, whose Bedfordshire County Council seat I won off the Tories in 1989, will oppose Davis on the 42 days. He’ll be quite formidable
224 Yet another made up benchmark? I don’t think it’s a difficult choice between you and Mr Smithson.
228. Yes. Labour’s attitude to their voters verges on the bizarre.
The party’s ultimate core vote, whatever they say or wish, must surely be white working class men. Women tend to be a little more Tory, as I understand. Anf there aren’t that many immigrants and ethnic voters, yet, to make a difference. So it’s white working class men who constitute the historic bedrock of Labour support.
Yet Labour have just brought in a law allowing and encouraging racial discrimination against white working class men: i.e. they are bringing in laws penalising, repulsively and immorally, their own core voters.
Setting aside the ethics, I cannot think of a more stupid, self-destructive piece of politicking in recent British history.
test
234. So the only substantial opponent Davis will face will be a Conservative standing as an independent!!
234. With incredible timing, the first edition of Total Politics focussed on Sweeney.
Did they know something, or did Sweeney read it and think. Hell, why not?
236. Labour don’t care any more. They’re a kamimaze regime, bent on self-destruction, but they will sink all eurosceptic aircraft carriers in the process and block Britain’s escape from the EU.
Individually Labour MPs and Ministers losing their seats will be rewarded by the corruption system in post-political careers, and have a second life in paradise with 72 virgins apiece.
228. ‘a return to inspiring people to want to better themselves’
That’s very interesting. Labour was indeed once associated with that - but it was a long, long time ago. My grandfather’s trade union used to run classes for its members - before the war (!). He stopped voting Labour in 1983 in disgust at its having been taken over by middle-class crypto-communists.
But even that was a delayed reaction, as the rot had set in much earlier, in the 1960s when Labour turned against Grammar Schools. Then in the 1970s, Labour became associated with the worst excesses of militant trade unionism including defence of the closed shop. In the 1980s, Labour opposed council house sales. All these stands confirmed them as an anti-opportunity party, a party apparently keen to perpetuate class division rather than end it.
And today, the Labour leadership remains dominated by middle class hypocrites with no understanding of the lives and aspirations of ordinary people. Their attempts to ‘reconnect’ with the core vote see them engaging in the most crude BNP-style sloganising and laughably outdated class-based caricatures of their opponents. That only shows how out of touch they are.
Against this background, it’s impossible to see them morphing into some kind of revivalist Keir Hardie style party.
239. spambot didn’t like the url
http://tinyurl.com/5h3kuh
233. flattered, Marcus.
[141] - ukpaul. A lot, I think, depends on the Unions. They still have 6 million odd members and a legitimate role to play in politics, but remain cowed by their experience of the 80s. They created the Labour party to represent their interests in Parliament and provide the bulk of its funding.
Are they going to try and use their influence constructively?
Those who consider this a “not bad” result for the Lib Dems are deluding themselves. With a collapsing Labour vote and in clear second place they nearly always push up their vote significantly in by-elections. Here they failed completely. (Even in the Moray by-election where they were also competing with the SNP, quoted by Stuart Dickson earlier in the thread, they managed to increase their vote share and nearly caught the Tories.)
This result demonstrates that their southern marginals are at real risk. Vince Cable, Chris Huhne will, I am sure, survive because of their strong national profiles combined with the in-depth local govt strength the LibDems have in those seats. For the others, however, it will be open season.
I’m surprised noone seems to have mentioned the resounding victory for blonde vs. brunette in henley
101. definitely agree with this, although there seems to be some evidence that some UKIP support is going BNP, i.e. it is becoming less unfashionable to vote BNP.
245, still a long way to the election (assuming we don’t have an Enabling Act rammed through). I think the Tory and Labour positions are quite well-defined (Labour nosediving, Tories soaring) but I’m not sure yet how the Lib Dems will fare.
Meanwhile at the circus…
Davis launches campaign live on Sky
245. well if this result is repeated across the south at a general election, the LDs will hang on to most of their LD/Con seats. that ignores the benefits of incumbency and the likelihood they will gain on the Cons in the polls.
isn’t that good news for them?
David Davis enters the launch of his campaign to the sound of one man clapping.
244 The Trades Unions have changed considerably since the 60’s & 70’s in that today they are hugely representative of public employees with representation in private industry concentrated to an extent in those companies that were de-nationalised in the 80’s and 90’s.
Part of the Thatcher revolution was to disconnect the Government from wage/income negotiations through privatisation, move to agencies for public services and monetary approach to economic policy. Gordon Brown has re-introduced this through his public sector incomes policy. Expecting constructive approach from union members, with declining personal incomes and a very restrictive wages policy is very optimistic.
251 Well at least Labour wont lose their deposit in H&H.
Davis: I resigned over “rigged vote” on 42 days.
dangerous nonsense.
Rod and Gabble, you sound like a echo chamber and are just as empty.
251, surely “One man running away despite claiming everybody in the country agrees with him”?
Brown courage could appear in the dictionary of oxymorons.
251 “David Davis enters the launch of his campaign to the sound of one man clapping.”
Which is one more man clapping than Labour can muster for Gordon’s first anniversary.
Labour - now running on pure bile.
“dangerous nonsense”
Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing about 42-day detention, compulsory ID cards and the police being allowed to retain DNA from people *wrongfully* arrested.
Oh dear…
Sky have cut away from the Davis launch after about a minute.
The BBC haven’t even bothered.
A thought.
In the Olden Days, there were two major parties -
One was the party of the anti-capitalist Left, who looked out for the working classes, were liberal and progressive, and believed in the State as a means to help working people (Health Education etc). They believed in higher taxes to pay for this.
The other party was of the pro-capitalist Right, who represented largely the middle and upper classes, and those in the working classes who aspired to be of a higher class, were deferential to the environment, and who only liked the State for the military and policiing of the lower orders.
The country was split between these two, largely on class and subsequently by geography. What is strange is that the UK has not changed that much in the 20 years since this was true - the poorer parts of the UK still are, the richer parts are still more comfortable - it is the identification that has changed.
Were we to imagine a two party system now, it would split slightly differently in geography, but very differently in policy. Having taken the NHS and state-funded universities as well as a market-capitalist model for granted, the working classes are no longer naturally of the Left - their priorities are Crime, Immigration, and the Cost of Living - lower taxes for working people, hang-em-and-flog-em, and stricter immigration policy are tailored to their circumstances.
The middle and upper-middle classes are still largely in the South East, but in all the major urban centres as well. They are more Liberal and progressive (on immigration, on crime, greater antipathy to the military).
Cameron is moving the Conservative party into this space - appealing to the Liberal Centre-right middle classes, knowing that the old Right will fall into line. Over time, they may search for another alternative, but neither Labour nor the Lib Dems offers it at present.
If Labour is to be re-born, I wonder if it has to choose between being the party of the Centre Left, or if it in fact needs to be the party of the working class who are no longer particularly on the Left (as long as the NHS/Education etc are still run by the State).
We have had a decade of Blair being the PM of the Centre Left, from the Old Labour/Union working classes to the Islington middle class liberals, and he dominated through that coalition. That is now dead - Brown could not maintain it. The right has found a way to woo those Liberal middle class urban voters, and Labour has no response.
Perhaps in seven years, with Cameron standing for re-eleciton, we will see a Labour/Tory divide not vertically (Left-Right, cross class) but closer to a horizontal divide (working classes and rural voters from the whole political spectrum v urban middle class Liberals of the Centre Left and Right).
This may be what Labour has been trying to do, with the Toff strategy and the authoritarianism, but it has failed thus far because (i) it is still infused with Centre Left thinking and rhetoric (Harriet Harman’s equality legislation) and (ii) because its current leadership is noticeably Middle Class (Harman, Kelly, Jowell, Millibands, Alexander, Woodward, Benn, Balls).
It would be a bold step to take, but I cannot see where else the Labour Party can go until Cameron has 15 years as PM and the country is just ‘ready for a change’. There is no coherent philosophy, no group that still identifies strongly with them, and leaders who are universally unattractive. They need to re-anchor, and that means finding and holding a loyal constituency that Cameron will always struggle to appeal to - the less than Liberal working classes.
Labour can only recover quickly if it once again becomes the party of the working class - but to do that, it has to stop necessarily being the party of the Centre Left.
259 - Oh dear, desperate Gabble tries to make any impact on this at all. It fails on all occasions.
in a hurry so my apologies if this has been posted previously. if the answer is 1066 what is the question? fans of douglas adams will understand….
Speaking of Sky, Gabble, how much do you want to bet that Murdoch will end up coming out for Cameron?
Jeff Randall holds back today in his comments on the government:
“No amount of makeovers, re-launches or faked sincerity can change what has occurred. The public has worked out that just about everything Labour had promised on issues that really matter turned out to be untrue. Not even Dickinson & Morris, established at Melton Mowbray in 1851, can match its impressive range of pork pies.”
Has he been reading and taking writing hints from seanT?
@251/@254
Who are you two talking to?
“139- ukPaul- an excellent post. You really have a great brain to you Paul.”
Charmer, so is that how you win these awards then?
I do think that opposition is now the only option, the best tactic being to go now with a new leader, lose and leave the new government with a crap economy still on a downward slide.
I don’t think people realise that my (and presumably others) dislike of labour is from a position of anger and disappointment at what could have been, not at any particular ideological dislike. If it was then why would I be wholeheartedly supporting a centre left candidate in the US?
The main parties are not too far apart policy wise, in historical terms, as regards economy, public services and so on, mostly because of a bunching up on the slightly right of centre. The further a party moves away from their ideology/roots/core, however, then the more dangerous their long term position. This is the position that labour now finds itself in, it has had further to journey to get where it now is on the political spectrum, the rations are dwindling and the troops are wondering what home looks like.
New Labour, with its rebranding, has clearly been an attempt to wrest labour into the centre ground, smothering lib dems and nudging the tories into a rightward shift. What was hoped is that the left went with it, which they did for a time. Inevitably, and how this wasn’t imagined I don’t know, the results of that positioning have seen labour shed votes to lib dems and, increasingly, to greens and nationalist parties as the left have slunk off. Add to that the natural wastage of those who have suffered from decisions that were poor for them, or have come to see Cameron as being what they hoped for from Blair and you end up with 25% in the polls.
On its own, however, that is salvageable; a repositioning, with policy positions of fairer tax to help the less well off, of curbs on the inhumanity of big business and so on would be plausible and, if a passionately held belief, a vote winning one.
The real problem, however, is what the rightward shift has led to; what has been used to replace the above values. They have been replaced by a creeping authoritarianism and a managerialism allied to results rather than politics. What is ‘good’ has been replaced by what ‘works’.
These have no place in a party supposedly of the people; when the right of centre party has a more liberal position than the left of centre one then the latter is in danger. If a policy is based on managing things better then the inevitable fact that ‘all things fall’ means the public say ‘not you’.
So there are three problems; the first two, creeping authoritarianism and increasingly poor management, having been brought into focus because of the third problem, a dereliction of core support and ideas.
What can labour do? Poor management can only be allayed by the next government being seen as ‘just the same’, therefore only time will heal. Creeping authoritarianism can only be jettisoned by people untainted by their introduction, hence opposition. During that time then a real discussion over what constitutes labour values for the 21st century is needed and, time hopefully, to look across the Atlantic and to see how a President Obama can point the way.
Change leader now, lose an election, jettison authoritarian managerial politics, use time in opposition to reconnect and then there may be a party that I feel as though I could once again vote for.
(sorry it’s so long, but I just wanted to put down what I mean in some depth, as it stands I will be voting lib dem and will be happy with a Cameron government that is not beholden to its right wing, that, now is Cameron’s different, but equal, task in government)
250.
Yes, but this result will not be duplicated in a general election. For one thing, the Labour vote won’t collapse like it did in the by-election. It was that total collapse that made up for the defections of LibDems to the Tories. Also the LibDems always out-perform their general election performance in by-elections.
Taking that into account Henley points to a significant swing from LibDem to Tory in a general election and the toppling of a bunch of southern LibDem marginals.
How soon will it be before the Ginger Muppet (she of the fake eyebrows, stitched-on smile and delusions of adequacy) tours the studios insisting that contrary to all opinion, last night was actually a ringing endorsement of our glorious leader?
Come to think of it, there’s been a paucity of senior Lab figures popping their heads above the parapet to explain that this is merely a glitch in the progression towards the inevitable paradise fore-shadowed by GB’s long-term decision-making.
Are they in a huddle getting the line-to-take sorted, or are they about to develop some back-bone and turf the Jonah out of No. 10?
C’mon, you guys. You know you’ll have to do it sooner or later. Give him an anniversary present he’ll never forget (or forgive).
267. i think more optimistic Cons will be of the opinion that there were more Lab->Con switchers, hence the result
Harriet on DP show looks shagged out!
That’s Tessa, not Harriet!
271….my mistake,sir!
207 A thought provoking post.
216 If there were more of you and less Gabbles, I suspect the Labour Party would be in better nick.
@274:
But not a better Nick.
245 - I don’t consider it ‘a not bad’ result for the Lib Dems - I consider it dissapointing as I posted last night.
Up until last week the Lib Dems clearly had traction and had put the Howell’s record on the spot. The Tory response was the correct one - they stopped responding to this weak issue and started to campaign on a strong one - sending a message to Gordon Brown. Interestingly they dropped all reference to Howell on their last week literature and replaced him with Boris Johnson.
If they hadn’t I think the Tories would still have won, but the Lib Dems would have been a good deal closer.
In terms of the effectiveness of the Lib Dem by-election team I’d encourage Lib Dems not to throw the baby out with the bathwater by jumping on the ridiculous Tory-inspired ‘get rid of Rennard’ campaign. The Tories would pay a huge amount of money to get Rennard on board and he’s by far and away the best in the game. If the basics were now essentially wrong then why have the Tories copied them line for line - take a look at the C&N literature on the by-election website to see what I mean.
I won’t also reveal what Lib Dem private polling in Henley said - but it did show that the lib Dem campaign was highly effective - much more so than the Tories.
274. Sorry to be a pedant but I think it should be fewer Gabbles.
Honestly Dan do you really believe all of this stuff? The Lib Dems would have been a lot closer if the quality of their campaign had not forced a change of tactics by the Tories. Yeah right. The Lib Dems campaign was highly effective - much more so than the Tories. Yeah right. Other Lib Dems are telling us that they see no evidence of real enthusiasm for the Tories. Well, if they saw little enthusiasm for the Tories there must have been even less for the Lib Dems.
Look at the result again and think again. The Lib Dem message is simply not resonating and pretending witness last night’s opinion poll. Pretending otherwise is just delusion.
“But Mr Blair’s former chief fundraiser Lord Levy believes Labour should consider replacing Mr Brown.
Asked in an interview with BBC 2’s Newsnight, to be broadcast later, if Mr Brown should go he says: “I certainly, seeing the polls, would have to say that this is something that needs to be very seriously considered.
But he adds: “I cannot see that there is any great leader of the Labour party who could replace him.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7477032.stm
This Henley folly was erected by the up-hill gardener
Incapability Brown.
27 JUNE 2008
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY GORDON
Culpability Brown?
Cameron’s desperate to keep him in place.