YouGov boost for beleaguered Labour
June 27th, 2008
Does this signal that a recovery is on the way?
As we wait for the Henley result there’s some goodish polling news for Labour in the June YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph.
So the shares with the changes on the last YouGov poll in the Sunday Times twelve days ago are - CON 46%(-1): LAB 28%(+3): LD 15%(-3)
The main move is a 3% fall in the Lib Dem shares and a similar increase in the Labour share. The Tories are down a point so the their lead is now down to just 18%. That 15% shares for Clegg’s party is very close to the 14% seen by BPIX in the Mail on Sunday at the weekend. The fieldwork for that pollster is carried out by YouGov so it’s not surprising that the numbers are in the same ball-park.
Now let’s sit back and see what Henley has to offer.
Please note that my comparisons are with the last poll from the relevant pollster NOT from the last poll in the paper - this is the standard way of reporting polling numbers on PB.
Mike Smithson
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This is really bad for clegg, but hopefully JG will survive!!!!!!!!!!!
Ite been a long time since I was the first poster on a thread ….
And it looks like it will be yet longer
42 Days boost?
I would say this is to do with recent expenses scandals but that wouldn’t explain the big shift from the Lib Dems
I hear from insider sources that the Conservatives really threw the kitchen sink at Henley.
Maybe this is due to Clegg’s option to not contest Davis’ seat.
Official turnout is 50.5% down from 67.9%, total votes cast 34915. Labour have lost deposit
http://henleybyelection2008.blogspot.com/
I can’t see why the LibDems would have lost votes.
I think we should recognise that Labour are so low in the polls that whenever any issue of substance crops up, even if the public is split 40-60 against Labour on it, their numbers should go up.
Its just fluxuations around a point. I wouldn’t take it too seriously.
My last reply on thread;
371. Actually, I was talking more about the personal standing of Brown and the Labour leadership, rather than headline voting intentions. As it goes, on the headline voting intentions the Tories are still quite a bit below where Labour was in the mid 90’s, but thats only because the polls in the 90’s were over inflating Labour’s lead - sometimes massively (remember those bizzare 60% vote shares Labour managed in some polls?) So, on the headline figures you can’t compare (though that doesn’t stop Kevin Maguire on occasion)
But, for instance, on personal approval Brown has reached Major’s lowest. In todays YouGov poll over 70% believe the Tories will win the next election. Its these kinds of polling questions that really inform just how badly Labour are doing.
Labour are +5 not +3
1.30 is when they think they will call the result.
On topic: I don’t really think the labour rise is anything except statistical noise. I think the true underlying situation is close to Con: 45% Lab: 25% Lib: 19%.
Reposted from last thread:
359. I doubt that would happen, because of financial concerns and how parties will not really want to campaign against themselves, spread their activists thinly and present a divided front.
There is no market place of ideas in politics because most people don’t care about politics. We are nerds. That those do have also tended to make up their mind a long time ago. I don’t see either of those facts changing under a new political system.
2 its just got longer!
Results due at 1:30
http://henleybyelection2008.blogspot.com/
Surely, the LibDem vote will be up 10% at least. If not, this will probably the party’s worst performance in a by-election that they’ve tried hard at in recent times.
“Labour have lost deposit”.
Oh, frabjous day!
From last thread:
386 - but in multi-member PR, you stand multiple candidates. It makes sense to field a spread of party opinion, offering candidates for everyone (a Tombstoner, a wet, a woman … ) to maximise your vote. In single-member constituencies if you’re a Libertarian in Teddy Leigh’s constituency you have to hold your nose pretty hard (or a Eursceptic here in Rushcliffe).
Nobody knows yet Labour have lost there deposit. Although I am fervently hoping with £100 riding on it!
Please not that my comparisons are with the last poll from the relevant pollster NOT from the last poll in the paper.
C.H.A.R.L.I.E. Official Henley Exit Poll
(Courteous Helpful And Really Lucky Instances of Exitpolling)
Con:- 47%
LD:- 39%
Lab:- 4%
BNP:- 3%
Green:- 3%
Oth:- 4
9. My theory is that the Liberals are not being vocal enough in attacking the government. They need to sense which way the wind is blowing (very anti Labour at the moment) and adjust accordingly.
Remember as well, the Liberals always go up during local election campaigns, then drop down in the weeks and months afterwards. Despite the Liberal spin, Nick Clegg never really took the Liberals to any better position in May 2008, than Ming had done in May 2007.
It demonstrates just how serious Labour’s current problems are that a Conservative poll lead of “just 18%”, combined with a change in the Labour share of 3%, e.g. no more than the margin of error, can be described by someone as sober as Mike as “goodish” for Labour.
It is still likely to be nearly two years before the next election, and a lot can happen in that time, but I do not think this poll will have David Cameron quaking in his boots.
A rise of this size is not especially significant although I do think 24% is the rock bottom for Labour.
Nick Cleggs leadership could well be in the spotlight this weekend for all the wrong reasons.
22:
That goes without saying, Mike. And that’s the way it should be.
Mike, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again - there is no way a poll of 1000 can reliably detect a “move” of less than about 6%.
It is just unscientific to claim otherwise, and can’t help the credibility of the site.
4 - regression to mean, more like (remember how low the last YouGov put Labour).
I’m not going to stay up for the Henley result, but I don’t think the Tories have too much to worry about and neither do I think the LibDems have made any sort of significant move up. Yes, there may well be a mild statistical swing to LDs, simply because it’s a by-election and so turnout is lower than in a GE and the Labour vote will get squeezed a little. But as a relative local (Oxford resident) who knows the area, my feeling is there isn’t any real appetite in Henley for anything other than another Conservative MP.
My guess is Labour will just preserve their deposit by about a percentage point, but again, that’s purely anecdotal (met a random person in the constituency the other day who had the balls to admit to planning to vote Labour, which surprised me).
Hey, that’s more reliable than some of the tips I’ve heard over the years!
Wouldn’t get too excited by this poll - all within the MoE. Great news if Labour have lost their deposit - was Islywn in 1995 the last time that happened to a governing party - Tories got 3.9% back then!
23 That would be a bit too close for comfort, IMHO. Still, a win by one vote is enough.
28 - yup fluxuations, margins of error etc. Polls are useful but lets not get overboard with each individual one.
23: ‘C.H.A.R.L.I.E. Official Henley Exit Poll
(Courteous Helpful And Really Lucky Instances of Exitpolling)’
You’re not another identity of whoever’s behind the ‘Jack W’ persona are you?
Oh no a Conservative lead of ‘just’ 18%..what a boost for Labour…key thing here is vote share…Conservative’s holding firm at 46% within MOE which given Spelman, 42 days and DD is fantastic news.
46%is landslide territory and the lefties can fight it out for the rest.Couldn’t care less how they divide up the crumbs.
Hey lets take notice of one poll.
If they help Brown survive, let them bring hope [but not too much].
20. Yes theoretically. But you are working on the basis that all parties only seek to maximise the vote instead all parties will be seeking to maximise their vote while at the same time minimising capital expenditure and the number of activists. Also, I don’t think the average voter wants an ideological pure candidate, most voters seem to prefer to cherry pick the most appealing aspects of a variety of ideologies.
33 Jacobite Always Cons Knowingly. Wow!
Does BBC2 usually go over to News 24 during the night? It seems like it is tonight at 1.20, so they may be starting the by election coverage then.
36 - why would ther eneed to be any more activists? Besides, as activists are working on campaigns its current account rather than capital.
Just got back from Henley - where I spent an agreeable day in Sonning and Woodcote and various other villages. Very polite and friendly lot until about 7pm which is clearly the local witching hour when the shutters went up.
My view and from the little I have from the count is a comfortable Tory win - I haven’t looked at the other thread so it may well have been mentioned - but strong BNP presence in the right areas - Sonning Common, Berinsfield etc. I suspect the Lib Dems have collapsed the Labour vote down to deposit losing level, but the BNP have picked it up.
It’s why Jack’s ARSE is likely to be proved wrong - the Lib Dems are likely to get just a bit more than last time, rather than a lot, but the others will benefit at Labour’s expense…
Someone has blogged this on Tory Home…..
***Park Ward byelection results***
Conservative: 977
Labour: 448
BNP: 218
Lib Dems: 97
UKIP: 30
Conservative majority of 529.
The ward- two thirds of which is Lancashire’s largest council estate- has never been held by a Conservative councillor before and has always been true Labour heartland.
re 28 So what do we do - use your totally flawed system of poll averaging or just ignore polls?
And this is much more than being about numbers - it’s about the whole mood created by shifts.
40. If thats true, on top of this poll, I think Liberal Democrats need to rethink what they are doing in terms of strategy right now.
Wouldn’t get too excited by this poll - all within the MoE. Great news if Labour have lost their deposit - was Islywn in 1995 the last time that happened to a governing party - Tories got 3.9% back then!
Labour lost their deposit in the Winchester by-election, 1997
Sky news:
Con 55-60
LD 30
Lab lost deposit
Maybe in fourth behind greens
41. What a sensational result for the Conservatives that is!
43. Any increase in the LibDem vote can be portrayed as acceptable (especially in light of a national poll showing a third of LD votes have disappeared since 2005). But there does have to be a question as to whether the expense and effort will have been worth it unless the Conservatives have been run fairly close.
39. Presumably to campaign for all the different candidates?
I imagine an authoritarian conservative activist wouldn’t want to campaign for a libertarian conservative candidate and vice versa.
Sky are suggesting that Greens have come third, Labour 4th.
44. Let the Lib-Dem sole searching begin….
42. You can do whatever you like, if you are not interested in sums. Averaging is not “totally flawed”. It has sound theoretical and empirical underpinnings, although it is far from perfect. There is no perfect method.
But to leap onto 1,2,3,4% “moves” can be shown to be mathematically unsupportable.
btw, Sky say.
Con 55-60%
LD 30%
Grn ~ 5%
Lab <5% lost deposit
So why did so many people (if this result is correct) get the feel of it wrong?
One thing about this vote, the count is taking part in Thame (which is a town I know very well) but it’s miles away from Henley. This is quite a large constituency.
Maybe Greens could replace labour as the centre left party?
Sole searching? It’s here on the end of my shoe… I suspect the government will be more worried, at least the Lib Dems seem to have *increased* their vote.
51. I always said;
The Tories would win comfortably.
The Lib-Dems would disappoint.
Labour would lose their deposit.
Not a bad predictions. I might just start taking part in this betting milarky!
The LibDems attacked this seat, it got the full Rennard treatment, with LibDem Voice as the attack dog and bloggers in full ramping mode. They need to do well tonight or there will be a lot of egg on a lot of LibDem faces.
The Boulton Blog reports Labour friendly fire, blue on blue to the military but red on red here:
“Best still is this ‘weight watchers’ appeal by the Home Affairs Select Committee Chairman to his fellow Labour MP and Home Office Minister Tony McNulty: ‘If anyone has any ideas as to how to help Harrow East MP and Police Minister Tony McNulty lose some weight could they please write urgently to: Fatty @The Home Office.com. Anyone who writes will get a signed photo of Jacqui Smith.”
With friends like these………
43/49 - what ’sole’ searching - apart from those that were on the bottom of my shoe (and are there no longer)?
If the Lib Dems have increased their share in a very safe Tory seat in the SE of England - against the national poll ratings then it suggests the Con/Lib battle is going to be very robust and not the walk over many on here claim.
[51] - You mean: Why did so many Lib Dems get it wrong? (Assuming Sky have got it right!)
To which the answer is that they are still stuck fighting the battles of the past.
44 If Sky is right, PBers should grab the 6/4 odds on Betfair’s handicapped Tories -20.5% bet which I recommended last night. When I just looked there was just £70 left, so hurry!
Brown seems to benefit from the agenda going abroad [Bush visit and Zim.] so I can see him picking up abit and would expect it to continue abit over the summer when Parliament is not in session[unless we have lots of strikes or everyone doesn't realise how much the pound has fallen against the Euro].
But I would have expected it to come from the Tories, who have not had a great recent press, rather than the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems have gradually recovered over the past months. Its a new picture if it appears there is a soft vote transfering between Labour and the LDs.
Well I never…
“Labour will lose their deposit in Henley….
It will be a two horse race between Tory and LibDem.
But the Tories should be looking for something like..
Con 60
LD 30
Lab 5
Oth 5
by RodCrosby May 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm”
Given the ramping from the Libdems and the massive resources they poured into it there is a lot of egg on yellow faces right now.
It confirms my view, the left’s strategy on the Conservatives is stuck in the past.
‘Mike, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again - there is no way a poll of 1000 can reliably detect a “move” of less than about 6%. It is just unscientific to claim otherwise, and can’t help the credibility of the site. by RodCrosby ‘
This accurate statement seems worth repeating . . Mike please TAKE NOTE. It is ridiculous to editorialise about the fine details of a pollster’s method unless you acknowledge the wide margins of error inherent in polling small samples.
Dan if you haven’t retained you 2005 share plus whatever Labour have lost you have not done well at all.
You have to attract Labour voters even in the south to retain your seats where the Tories are in second place as polls show LibDem to Tory movement and Crewe showed that Labour to Tory is also happening.
You cannot simply stand still and hope to hold on to your seats.
You can lay “Any Other + 20.5%” to win on Betfair at 1.1.
If Sky is right, you win. You are effectively getting 10-1.
Posters on LibDemVoice saying Tories need 15% majority to feel safe and a majority of less than 10% for the LibDems to be happy.
57. I think the question would be “is it worth spending a fortune reducing a massive Tory majority by a few % points.” ? The question would be why the gain in LD votes would is so low (if SKY are right). What’s been the lowest Con-Lib by-election swing in a seat with the Cons in first and Libs in second?
I have justed layed ‘any other’ about £300, Im getting nervous nobody else seems to be!
[68] I think the Tories outspent the Lib Dems 3-1. If so… you might want to ask why they needed to do that.
I could never understand the Lib’s talking up their chances here. They seem to think that we’re still back in 2004 and the Tories are still unpopular and they can still turn up these sensational results against the Blues. David Cameron has fundamentally changed all that position, as has Browns collpase. Liberals need to wake up and smell the coffee. For instance (sorry to be a bore everybody
) on the European Constitution they had a golden opportunity to force Labour to hold a referendum, they didn’t do it. That would have been an popular and honest position, and the Liberals couldn’t bring themselves to really hold Labour to account.
Even on QT tonight we find the Lib-Dem’s sounding wishy washy in attacking the governments anti discrimination discrimination policy, against an audiance that was very hostile. The Liberals Democrats are whistling in the wind, I’m afraid.
re 63 The notion of “margin of error” only applies if you have a totally random sample. Political opinion polls do not do that.
Sky: result expected in next few minutes…
I should be in bed!
70 Yes, the YouGov poll has a margin of error of 3% doesn’t it, which is fairly standard as target for such polls?
72- Perhaps you should rephrase that, Saucy!
[70] - That actually increases the true margin of error for the polls, because the number of degrees of freedom in the poll sample is much lower than the reported sample size.
Given that you can’t be sure that the sampling bias is constant it introduces an additional margin of error. It does not decrease it!
Perhaps the Constitreaty going to the Lords didn’t help the LDs in Henley.
live on bbc news now
Sky have missed the live declaration.
con 19,796
lib 9,680
Terrible from LD’s.
Lib Dems 9k !!!!
lab 1066
Hoe accuratly does the sample reflect the actual views of 50 million votes. How close is that projection? Even with yougovs method there is an idea of there being random variation around a mean so effectivly there is a margin of error.
BNP beat Labour.
Lab 5th? Did I hear right?
BNP beat Labour
1066 lab / 1243 bnp :they’ll remember that for a while..
Green beat Labour
5th place!
Labour 1066 - ouch
BNP beat Labour by just under 200.
Labour in 5th, disaster.
greens 1321
Labour 5th
70. Quite. So detecting a 6% move is the theoretical “best case”. In practice polls may perform even worse..
My advice, Mike, is to still show the (+/-) in brackets, but to make no sensational comments about 3% “moves”. Only if there is a large move should you comment.
If you want a dry and dusty guest article I can oblige.
Sky: Labour FIFTH !!!
Ouch - Labour 5th - historic…
“Ealing rape victim will stand against David Davis”
“Ms Saward, who has been campaigning on behalf of the victims of sexual violence since she was raped in the infamous Ealing vicarage attack 22 years ago, said: “David Davis appears to be very concerned about ‘British liberty’. But what does it mean? I want men and women – including children – to be at liberty to walk the streets of our towns and cities without fear of violence in general – and sexual violence in particular; and to feel safe in their own homes and workplaces. And part of that ‘British liberty’ is to expect the law enforcement agencies to use every tool at their disposal to catch the people responsible for the attack – and to never give up.
“A search on the parliamentary website shows that David Davis’s only contribution on rape is to ask four written questions about statistics. A search on the Conservative Party’s website produces only two results for ‘rape’. And David Davis, Shadow Home Secretary, has nothing to say on either of them.”"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ealing-rape-victim-will-stand-against-david-davis-855414.html
Henley:
Con 19,576
Lib Dem 9,680
Green 1,321
Labour 1,066!
BNP 1,243
Labour’s date with history - stunning! Labour in 5th place!!!!!
85 yes!
Wow. Labour fifth. Wow.
Bloody hell what a shocker. Who is the blonde girl? Is that Gemma Garrett?
percentages someone please im having a heart attack here! no time for mental calculations!
Conservatives beat Lib Dems by a ratio of about 2:1… 60% vs 30% seems about right
Labour in 5th, I know it’s a true blue seat, but that is awful for them.
Someone was quick on wikipedia - the returning officer has just finished and the results are already up on the Henley page!
Labour 5th, and people wonder why there are few labour supporters on here and the ones that are are held up to ridicule?
Well my bet on Labour turnout was the sure-fire winner I said it would be
Conservative: 19 thousand and something
Lib Dems: 9,700
Jesus, even UKIP got close to beating Labour.
Disasterous for the Liberal Democrats - and after all the hyperbole.
Well, all I can say is that the headlines tomorrow will be about Labour being beaten into 5th place by Greens and BNP and losing their deposit! Rather than the complete and total failure of the Lib-Dems. Nick Clegg is one very lucky boy.
Not got the percentages - but even in the dark days of the Lib/Lab pact althought the libs got beaten by the then NF, they never came fifth.
That has to be the worst result for a governing party ever.
Perhaps the leader of the Greens could ‘phone Gordon Brown and propose a merger.
Sky news ‘A sensation!’
Clegg and Brown both humiliated; but luckily for Clegg, it’ll be Brown with the headlines
Lib Dem candidate ripping into Labour
Is Kearney reading the wrong speech???
This Lib Dem guy is good, the leadership should take note
Kearney making a complete berk of himself. What a prat
Grayling ensuring the LDs are not forgotten.
Holy shit dude
109 - Lord Rennard is a genius remember. He told us that for years.
Yet again BBC coverage is rubbish. The announcement had started before they even switched to Henley.
Labour have never been fifth… equals the Liberal performance at Walsall North in 1976 - the only occasion that a “major” party finished 5th in an English by-election….
Well i think in the last 20 minutes ive just made myself almost £400! happy with that!!
Total vote previously reported as 34,915. If correct:
Con 56%
LD 28%
Green 3.8%
BNP 3.6%
Lab 3.1%
A ggod night for the Lib Dems says Kearney. Where was he. Is he smoking something like Rod
“This is a good result for the Liberal-Democrats”
Stephen Kearney speech
quite…
What’s that, Cons nearly 60%, Libs high 20s?
Everything here points to a Labour AND Liberal Democrat meltdown at the next general election, doesn’t it?
MP Salter attacks dirty LibDem tactics. Have we got vote shares and changes yet?
121 Mike S. Also a couple of minutes before the announcement, they said results were expected within “an hour”. On the ball, that BBC
Good result for the Tories.
65: thanks a lot, logged on, made the lay, +350 quid.
Good coverage by BBC who are actually interviewing in the hall! *shocked*
Labour Reading MP says of sixteen candidates ten lost their deposits… so the 6 first must have saved them?
Kearney wrote his speech last night…before the result.
Rennard making an idiot of himself on BBC
I am looking forward to Reflecting reflecting on this. He predicted a 9% swing.
And paging Big Tall Tim, Big Tall Tim, your ramp has collapsed.
Tories up 3% LD up 2% and Labour down 10%… So the Conservative vote up by more than the LD’s - Labour switching directly over to us.
121 - Mike, it makes me smile when you make such a point of slagging off the BBC’s coverage because it isn’t tailored to you personally. You have a particular focus on political outcomes like by-elections, as a person who specialises in betting on them and writing about them - that doesn’t mean they’re the most important news of the day for everyone else. Yes, that coverage was a mess - but the general thrust of your criticism is nonsense and makes you look detatched from reality.
134 he said 12
Brown is toast. As a Tory, that makes me very sad - he was our ticket to a landslide.
My prediction: Milliband will give the leader’s speech at the Annual conference in September.
Is this a bigger political earthquake than C&N?
Someone should tell Howell to get a decent haircut
138 - the turn out is massively down. Perhaps the Labour voters just aren’t coming out, rather than switching.
65
Many thanks.
141. No.
143 It’s not massively down for a by election, 50.5% is quite high.
At the next election turnout will be wretched.
Con majority 28%
And yes, I think Kearney wrote his speech based upon his own literature ; apparently they thought it was neck and neck this morning.
141 - I think it might be, even though it shouldn’t be.
Labour looks absolutely DREADFUL right now. Salter’s reaction was brave and actually quite good (but ruined visually by his nervous twitching), but there’s no escaping from the humiliation of being beaten by the Greens and the reviled* BNP.
* I say reviled, but plenty of Tories on this site seem to be cheering them on to mainstream status.
The BBC website has the top story that the count is to begin shortly.
The BBC really are poor value for money.
146 - what do you mean, ‘no’?
LD
What a humilation! Nick Clegg is still like Neil Kinnick!!! 
146 - cripes yes you’re right, thinking again. But you know what I mean - you can’t talk about direct switchers in the way you did.
Tories outpolled Lib Dems more than 2:1
C 56.95% (+3.46)
LD 27.85% (+1.84)
Grn 3.80% (+0.54)
BNP 3.58% (dns)
Lab 3.07% (-11.68)
UKIP 2.43% (-0.07)
Sorry Mike, I have been drinking!
BBC: The Conservatives have kept hold of Henley after the resignation of Tory MP Boris Johnson prompted a by-election.
He will be replaced by Oxfordshire councillor John Howell, who won with a majority of around 10,000.
Mr Howell thanked voters and admitted he “had big shoes to fill”.
The turnout was reported to be just over 50%, compared with 67.9% at the 2005 General Election.
Nothing on Labour being 5th
[143] - Normally a low turnout hits the incumbent in a by-election. It looks like the Labour vote has gone as much to the Greens and BNP than the Tories, but it is a good result for the Tories, and points to more Lib Dem seats being under threat in the South then I would have thought before.
The LibDems put in all that effort for less than 2% rise? Poor value for money!!!
Can someone explain to me why the LibDems have been humiliated? There’ve been no noises in the mainstream media about the LibDems claiming they were going to win this. If there were, I missed them. The Tories are going through a purple patch right now, everyone expects them to romp home (which they’ve done).
The story that comes from this is that Labour are really, really in trouble, and the Tories are continuing to dominate politics.
This is then a swing from the LibDems to the Tories.
148 Who?
Lord Rennard…..funny. Trying to spin this as a bad result for the Tories!
The Green candidates spiel is excellent until you remember he got less than 2000 votes!
I’m sorry, “tories haven’t done well” even though they are 3% up.
Lord Rennard - appoligies and appoligies: shame for him he was a real guri until about 2 years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now Green candidate sticks knife into LibDem & Labour - calls LibDem vote a collapse in real terms.
108 - not sure there was much hyperbole - other than from yourself claiming the Tories would ‘crush’ the Lib Dems.
Given both major parties in this seat threw the kitchen sink at this and fought each other to standstill - it suggests that 2010 will be difficult for the Tories to make major gains from the Lib Dems where the same circumstances apply and makes seats like Eastbourne vulnerable the other way.
Most interestingly it must make Haltemprice and Howden a target for the Greens - they should throw everyhting they have at it - 25%+ ought to be easily achievable for them there.
Rennard appears to be claiming (on Sky) that the 2% increase in the LibDem vote is somehow better than the 3% increase in the Tory vote.
God Chris Rennard is such an arse. Time for a new election strategist who thinks less of himself and puts candidates forward who can speak for themselves.
163 - then loses his thread, looks nervous, and falls apart.
Common sense:-
Good result for the Tories
Expected result for Lib Dems
Awful result for Labour
Reminds me of one of Redfords last lines, referring to the result of “The Sting” -”No its not enough - but it comes close!”.
Can someone explain to me why the LibDems have been humiliated?
BAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA! LD’s Winning here!
166 - he looks like an over-promoted deputy headmaster.
So according to Rennard ….the LDs are doing well….[if the LibDems can put this effort in everywhere in the country in an election]
BBC:Vote-count due to begin in Henley
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7475733.stm
Sky going big time on Labour 5th.
132,65 Me too, quickest £300 I have ever made in all of 5 minutes!
157 - yes. My local Lib Dem Mp was posting on his blog only this week that Henley was going to be ‘another Newbury’ and endless spinning on here about ‘bromley Mk11′ from various Lib Dems.
As far back as C&N Lib dems have been saying they have been holding their fire for Henley etc.
All they have proved is that they are completely out of touch, that they still imagine that there is a latent hate-the -tory vote to motivate when clearly there isn’t.
170 - quite.
167 - Expected result for the LibDems? Not according to them!!!
Yes, Green chap turned into a bit of an hilarity.
The LD’s have been crushed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Despite the Labour collapse still a swing to the tories!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a superb result.
When was the last time a Conservative-held seat with Lib Dem in 2nd had a higher vote in a by-election?
Wiki says this is a 2.4% swing to the Tories but that can’t be true can it?
“A year on, Brown is yet to run out of steam, but his ship is plainly sinking
Older MPs are imploring young ministers to grasp their Clause Four moment and topple the leader. It’s hard to blame them”
by Toynbee:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/27/gordonbrown.labour
Combined votes of the two loony parties outpoll Labour:
UKIP 843
+ Bananaman Owen 242
= 1085
Labour 1066
169 - someone who isn’t drunk, mad and illiterate.
Seriously, I haven’t heard any ramping from the LDs in the mainstream media. Maybe I’ve missed it. I read pretty much all the papers - bar the hard right ones - every day and have seen little coverage of Henley and nothing that sets the LDs up for a fall. They aren’t the story here - Labour’s humiliation is.
Nick Clegg is Doomed - Doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
152. 7.6% swing, I think. Tories not really doing that spectacularly, but probably as expected.
At Clitheroe and Knutsford in 1979 the Tories were putting on 16-17%…
Meaningless UNS calculations…
C 33.24+3.46=36.70%
Lab 36.20-11.68=24.52%
LD 22.64+1.84=24.48%
Martin Baxter gives C 333, Lab 210, LD 76; C majority 16.
180. Well, 2.45.
174. OK eithe me, you or Andrew is lying/exaggerating. There was £750 availible to lay at 1.1, I layed £310, you two say you did £300 and £350! hmmm…still well done!!!
170,
“166 - he looks like an over-promoted deputy headmaster.”
The Green looks like a good guy he’s not a politician, it’s perfectly understandable. I don’t like this dismissive attitude people here have towards independents.
164.”108 - not sure there was much hyperbole - other than from yourself claiming the Tories would ‘crush’ the Lib Dems.”
Come off it! The threads on this site are easily accessed and will be archived for posterity.
Excellent result for the Conservatives on a turnout quite a bit down on the 05′GE. So two by elections victories for the Tories, two very comfortable majorities, with one on a very high turnout and the other one quite a bit down on the last GE?
Rennard shouln’t have come on telly.
He was a fearsome character by reputation.
In reality he looks like a well dressed jolly hotelier with a penchant for his chefs treacle sponge.
how long will it likely take betfair to settle the by-election market?
If anyone is still watching BBC 24 - I quite fancy that weather girl.
For you gloating Tories - just remember the three by-elections in similarly safe Labour seats in 1994 where Labour started at 50+% and polled 70% in the by-election.
It’s as I said in previous thread a decent result for the Tories in by-election circumstances and suggests they’re beginning to understand the ‘ground war’. But it’s nothing like the momentum that Blair and New Labour achieved in the run up to 97.
But they are clearly favourites to be largest party now and the next government.
186. On proportional swing, Lab would get 7%!!!!!!!
Re 174,132,65 On betting that others + 20.5% would not win, isn’t that bet a loser?
C% + (100 -C%) = 100%
and
C > (100 - C% + 20.5)
so
2C > 120.5
so C > 60.25?
The Tories got only 56.9%, which means the bet is a loser.
Or does ‘Others’ mean the best single Other party, in which case Lib Dem + 20% = 47.8%, which means you won?
189 - who knows if he’s a good guy. I hope he is. But he’s not an independent he’s a politician for the Green Party. I don’t think its too much to comment on his pitiful media skills.
Labour 5th omfg, it’s a disaster for Brown.
On a brighter note, how much would the LDs have blown from the treasure chest to have got such a staggeringly mediocre outcome?
190 - “Come off it! The threads on this site are easily accessed and will be archived for posterity.”
Yes, but in the grand scheme of things very few people indeed did or will see them.
Charlie how do you calculate that as the Tories increased their share by 3+% and the LibDems by just under 2%. Difference divided by 2 is less Than 1%?
183. Yes you have sussed me - moi has been drinking! (alot!!!)
i guess it means Any Single Other, so the Lib Dems were a long way off???
159
Rennard looking like a complete prat,probably also looking for another job soon.
148 - I object to that. Most of the Tories despise the BNP as much as anyone.
194. I’d go with that analysis..
194 - But in those seats Dan there was no effective third party. Labour ran amok with no ballast.
190 What are you doing up at this time? ‘Effie’ would be telling us both of [instead of just me!]
196. we layed others +20.5%
The Lib Dems would lose four seats to the Tories on a swing of 0.81% (which is the swing in this by-election):
Romsey and Southampton North
Cheltenham
Eastleigh
St Austell and Newquay
You’d expect that, given they already held the seat by a wide margin, it would be Tory voters who would be less inclined than Lib Dem voters to turn out.
189 - I’m not dismissive of independents.
I think Amanda Harrington is as fit as a butcher’s dog, as it happens. That’s not dismissive.
188: I also backed some, 70@2.54, and took lays totalling 275 or thereabouts.
Mike Smithson (121):
Yet again BBC coverage is rubbish. The announcement had started before they even switched to Henley.
The announcement seemed to catch all the TV stations by surprise. Sky News only switched over in time for the announcement of the Green candidate’s result.
200. Is it not the swings added together divided by 2?
212 - yes but don’t mention that because it doesn’t allow attacks on the BBC.
Ignore the fact that Sky is horribly biased and in the hands of Rupert Murdoch - they cater for political geeks so must be praised.
164. Dan. read my posts; I did not say the Lib dems would be crushed by us I said they would be crushed by the fall from the heights of their own inflated expectations - as I expect they are.
I also said our strategy was to ensure the Lib dems had no wriggle room to claim any kind of victory in Henley and we have amply achieved that.
If you think this doesn’t provide once-and-for-all proof that the LD’s will lose the vast majority of their 1997 Tory gains you are in denial.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
188 Noisy - not so, when i started laying there was over £900 available at 1.1, plus £100 available to buy on the winning side of the hadicap at 6/4, much of which I took.
215 - Marcus, if that were true - that the LDs can’t hold up against the Tories - they wouldn’t have, erm, held their vote against the Tories tonight in extremely unfavourable national circumstances?
A general moralistic question regarding this.. someone obviously left about £750 on at ridiculous odds and went away/to bed etc, and now is 3/4 grand worse off.. feels a bit ‘not nice’…
I might just live with it though!
215. The LD vote went UP!
cf. Knutsford and Clitheroe 1979…
Charlie thought so but it is so late I can’t remember my own name. Luckily it is in the box below. Night.
216 188
If you look at the price/volume chart you will see that quite a bit was traded at 1.10.
One year on since the clunking fist took over - humilation!!!!
Humilatiom for Nick Clegg - Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!!!
Robert Mugabe is horribly vile isn’t he [I'm still watching BBC 24, sorry Mike].
Remember when Peter Tatchell tried to arrest him? There’s a hero for you.
Had neither seen nor heard the Tory guy till tonight. From the Liberal’s character assassination I assumed he’d be some sort of drooling vegetable, a liability; in fact, in his interview, he came across as perfectly capable. Not sure about the Liberal though - the looks of a night-club bouncer with the same degree of articulation.
[217] - There was ~11% going begging from the collapse of the Labour vote. It’s bad news for the Lib Dems that they couldn’t capture even a quarter of that!
223. PT is something of a national institution isn’t he?
223. Yes but Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
Brown is worse than Foot!
Well, I’m certainly not cheering on the BNP and I don’t know any Conservative activists who regard them as mainstream.
I don’t see how any reasonable person can interpret a Conservative majority of about 10,000, a small swing LD to Con, and Tories beating Lib/Dems by two-to-one as anything other than a good result for the Conservatives.
Neither can I see how any reasonable person can interpret a swing from Lib/Dems to Conservative as other than disappointing for the Lib/Dems, though it will probably not be remembered when compared to the humiliation of Labour.
Since this was a seat they were never going to win, it’s not as heavy a blow to Labour as Crewe and Nantwich was, but such a complete collapse of their vote and coming 5th is still humiliating for them and it adds to the impression of a party on the way out.
It will be interesting to see whether those Lib/Dems who were talking up their chances of a good result in Henley are willing to admit they were wrong and learn anything from it.
218: would certainly be interesting to know how long that had been sitting there……
Sky keep showing bar chart to scale with Con 57%, Lab 3%
“You can barely see the Lab figure”. Looks comical.
224. Funny you should say that……………..
Labour got 1066 votes. Insert your own “arrow in the eye” joke here…
225 Exactly, how obvious does it have to get for you Lib Dem guys?
Labours vote is collapsing everywhere,Brown is the most unpopular PM since records began and what do you do? Ignore C&N and instead target Tory voters in one of our safest seats when we are riding high in the polls and then wonder why you have a disappointment tonight.
216 I don’t know where they obtained their info from, but Sky appeared to have the accurate result approx 6-7 minutes before it was formally announced, providing 4 or more PBers, incl yours truly, with free money if one believed they were calling it corrctly.
Lovely jubbly!
232. That’s unfair. Brown was Cyclops to begin with.
As Anthony King would say, “This is a terrible result for the Conservatives.” Will Brown be able to survive much longer after coming 5th?
236. That little boost for Labour in the YouGov will hopefully keep the Labour daggers sheathed for a while.
Has anyone yet noticed that Dick Rogers came between the two beauties?
221 Yes, indeed £2,386 in fact, although in matched terms, it may be half this figure, i.e. £1,193 - I’m not sure how Betfair count the volume of bets traded.
The ARSE has flopped!
240. prolapsed, even..
228 - a fair post.
I’m happy to admit that it is a dissappointing result for the Lib Dems - and a good result for the Tories. Please read my posts on other threads where I was trying to argue what the benchmarks for the respective parties should be.
Henley suggests that the Tories are pretty popular at the moment (which we knew already), Labour are in freefall and the Lib Dems are at standstill. The Lib Dems are tough nuts to crack and will continue to be so - but the self wish fulfilling idea of Marcus Woods that Henley means the vast majority of the 97 Lib Dem gains will go back to the Tories is nonsense.
Henley suggests that in the SE the Tories will have to work much much harder to winkle out the Lib Dems. The idea that only the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at Henley is rubbish - every Tory MP was sent there today. Boris Johnson sent a letter by first class post to every voter. The Tories threw the kitchen sink at it to (rightly) - that’s democratic politics. But Tory posters like Sally C who underestimate the ability of the Lib Dems to fight 30 similtaneous by-elections at the general election are wrong - the Lib Dems will be able to throw the kitchen sink at a large number of seats (like they did in 2005).
Now Labour is trailing BNP, they should merge a la Lib-SDP style.
I agree with 233. I am a Lib Dem supporter. Why did we arse around in a safe Tory seat with no local candidate? I think that Dave’s Tories will come unstuck. Let’s face it he is a Toff with no life experience that most of us recognise trying to preach to those of us with real lives….However that being said the Lib Dems have gone and spent I would imagine tens of thousands of pounds for a 4% increase in vote share…..NOT good value for money!
239: good question, always wondered that. Should be able to figure it out - how much 2.54 did you take on the back side? I got 70 (matching 107.8) before someone else ate it all, and it’s saying 200 total traded.
For the sports betters here: that new bookie with the awful Cantona odds, Partouche-betting, is actually a bit of a goldmine. They use 102% markets for everything, like a European version of pinnacle, which makes them the joint lowest juice bookie on many sports (especially football and tennis).
Best thing is, they don’t move their prices, resulting in some outrageous value. For example, lots of money piling on Ferrer to beat Ancic at the moment, driving down prices. Normal price is around 1.75, best elsewhere is 1.83 (pinnacle), they have 1.96.
Labour’s fifth place in Henley encapsulates precisely their problem. The progressive middle-class is going to either the LibDems or Greens, the white working-class vote to the BNP and the 1997 Blair voters returning to the Conservatives.
84% of the 2005 Labour vote “evaporated.” Wow!
224 That’s useful info Andrew, but too tire to follow up on the tennis value bet you mentioned.
Ah…. a good night’s work.
Goodnight everyone.
I phoned Alan Hope just after the declaration. Lots of Loonies celebrating Labour’s defeat, except for Peter Owen (Bananaman) himself, who was very disappointed with his 242 votes. He has stood in four general elections in Wokingham and has never got fewer than 531 before. He didn’t put out a leaflet in Henley, but (like me) he is on the more serious wing of the party - i.e. someone who campaigns on local issues and gets involved with stuff and aims for as many votes as possible instead of rejoicing in losing.
Incidentally, I asked whose birthday it was (I heard people singing “Happy Birthday” after the declaration) and it’s Harry Bear apparently.
I was delighted to hear the Green Party beating the BNP. It will stop the BNP getting into hysterics about a triumphant third place. I thought that there was a slight chance that either BNP or UKIP or Green might beat Labour, but I thought it would be either/or, not both/and.
I noticed that 19,796 - 9,680 = a majority of 10,116.
I thought “Oh, that’s exactly 5,000 more than 5,116″ but then I remembered that it was David Davis who has a majority of 5,116, not Boris Johnson.
Then I thought “Oh, 19,796 is the number the Liberal got in Derbyshire West in 1986″.
If Boris Johnson is BoJo, is David Davis DaDa? Or Day-Day? Or Dave-Dave?
251. DaviDavi
207.”190 What are you doing up at this time? ‘Effie’ would be telling us both of [instead of just me!]”
Sally, a couple of blue harpies like us missing a by election double for the Tories - I don’t think so!
The blessed Effie would be parting our blue rinses with her divine wisdom on Cameron, the Conservative party, and life in general if she was ever let loose on PB.com.
251- dickhead, nobhead, twat, twit, moron, prat- some entries for starters.
Dave Snooty and friends
Betfair settled Henley already, that was quick.
110. even in the dark days of the Lib/Lab pact althought the libs got beaten by the then NF, they never came fifth.
Yes they did - Walsall North 4/11/76
Con 16,212
Lab 11,833
Ind 4,374
NF 2,724
Lib 1,212
SWP 574
National Party 258
Ecology 181
ARPSWR 30
257. Although that was actually before the Lib-Lab pact, which only covered a short time in 1978-9.
258. March 77-July 78