WANTED: more electoral college betting
July 3rd, 2008
Electoral-vote.com
Is this the way to capitalise on Obama’s possible big victory?
The above map is reproduced from the excellent Electoral-Vote.com which takes all the latest state polls and expresses them graphically on a map of the US. The solid blue states look set to go the Democratic; the solid red ones to the Republicans and the others are leaning in one direction or another or are exactly tied.
It’s updated every day and my guess is that we will all be looking at it a lot in the run-up to November 5th.
There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and the candidate who gets to 270 is the winner. On the latest polling things look good for Barack Obama but will that last?
For political gamblers betting on the number of EC votes each the candidates will get adds an interesting new dimension. I like going on the spreads because with this form of betting the more you are right the more you win.
As I’ve reported in the last week or so I am a buyer of Democratic party EC votes at just over the 290 level. So if Obama gets to the 317 being predicted by the polling I would win 317 - 290 = 27 multiplied by my stake level. I am also a small seller of McCain at the 240 level.
The big problem is that at the moment punters and the bookies don’t seem to be interested. The only market is on Spreadfair where you are limited by what other punters want to bet. I’ve been snapping up almost everything that has been offered on Obama or for sale on McCain.
Why don’t the other spread firms, the traditional bookies and the betting exchanges get something up? This will get bigger and bigger as we get nearer the day.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
McCain to regain Indiana and Virginia
Sorry to go off topic, but BBC saying Boris has instigated an independent inquiry into misconduct allegations against deputy Ray Lewis. Whassatabout?
407 from previous thread. Yes - that is why I think it’s naive to suppose parents will rush to become involved in setting up new schools - it’s difficult enough to get them involved in running existing ones.
as usual last posting on last thread so here is what I said:
Nick before you pat yourself on the back too much 2.4% of an MP’s salary (about £1500) which is what I understand you have accepted, is about a month’s salary for the average voter in Scotland never mind Glasgow East!!
by Easterross July 3rd, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Looks like just you and me on this market at the moment, Mike. Hard to make any money when there’s only two people on the board and they are both backing the same side.
3 refer you to my post on last thread.
Your example of the difficulties in setting up a school is only applicable in the over-regulated, state oriented system we have now.
4 I quite agree, Mike, I’ve been trying to get onto this market for weeks, all to no avail - no betting is taking place.
What I find particularly surprising is the apparent loss of interest on PB towards the US elections. After seeing hundreds of posts virtually every day throughout the primary season, one now sees only Jack W’s polling reports and from a few other dedicated posters.
I suspect this has occurred in part as a result of the posting audience having changed quite substantially over the past 3-4 months.
O/T but must break off to buy a few watermelons (seem to be luckier than Coldstone and the weekend is coming up)
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1820026,00.html
7. it is rather a long way from the next meaningful event though
7 PfP, I think it is just that we’re in the phoney war between primaries and Conventions. It’ll generate massive posting traffic through September/October, you see.
6. for a start a school is going to need new buildings. how do you think that is going to work?
6 - Ted, even assuming you remove the planning and curriculum regulation, there still needs to be premises, teachers etc. These need to be sourced and paid for. This is not a simple undertaking - there are considerable barriers to entry that will tend to make it the preserve of only certain people, ie the ones who are risk-takers and knowledgeable about how to recruit and raise funds.
Which (circle completed again) tend to be the sort of people Cameron would like to vote for him in marginals.
Fine - this is politics. But lets not dress it up as some sort of One-Nation altruistic “lets make society better” exercise.
6 So you recommend that we abolish Ofsted?
People have been complaining about over-regulation for as long as I can remember (and that’s a long time) but our over-regulated system has actually got quite a lot better in that time.
And going back to the previous thread, I’m not too sure how well ideas modelled on African villages would transplant to 21st century European cities.
12. But does that make it a bad thing?
12 Exactly. Sums it up IMO.
You could also take the example of foundation hospitals - suppopsed to be a great opportunity for the community to get involved but in reality the members are generally “the usual suspects” who would previously have featured on the CHC or the health authority.
One thing to remember in all these polls is how off many of the primary ones were at the beginning of the contest as they had no idea what turnout would look like. I believe many of the pollsters aren’t making many changes from how each demographic voted in 2004, which could be a big mistake. This is particularly the case with African Americans and Hispanics, who will be registered in enormous numbers as registration drives are one of the main uses of Obama’s financial advantage. He is also using a massive fellowship program for young people wanting to get involved in politics to donate their time for free doing this.
I suspect all this will give Obama an advantage above the polling positions in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Georgia, and to a lesser extent Indiana and Missouri.
Your risks are also very limited. There is next to no chance McCain will surpass 310-320 EVs.
14 - the original article implied that Cameron had the answers about how to fix society. There will possibly be some marginal benefits for a few people, but there may also be disbenefits for others and it is unlikely that the broken society will be mended as claimed.
the startup costs for even the smallest conceivable secondary school must be eye-watering. just for renting some premises, hiring a couple of teachers, and all the admin.
there is a reason why established private schools cost so much more than the figures being floated, and there is also a reason why more are not springing up everywhere.
16. Should add North Carolina to the above list.
17 We won’t know till it’s tried.
I think there was a study somewhere that showed the US race only becomes indicative of the outcome after Labour Day (first Monday in September)..
of course society is not going to be “fixed” by his proposals - but if he has ideas that make it better, good luck to him, let’s hear them. this particular one i have doubts about, although i don’t think it would be a disaster to give it a try.
11, 12 Sean Fear’s point (last thread) that this has been done for centuries is a good one.
For example, how was Robert Burns schooled?
First, at home by his parents. Then at an “adventure” school set up by friends of his parents. And Burn’s family was not affluent — he knew real hardship and poverty in rural Lanarkshire.
23. and which prior century are you suggesting would be a suitable model for our education system in the 21st century?
Is anyone else watching BBC Parliament and the debate over whether MPs need to be properly audited.
I have never been so sickened in my entire life.
Simon Hughes (LD-Bermondsey) and Nick Narvey (LD-North Devon) have gone up in my estimation, but Don Toughig (Lab-Islwyn) is leading a whole body of MPs who are an absolute disgrace - shouting down the voices of transparency and decency with their disgraceful and self-interested corruption.
Doesn’t Finland always top the rankings in education? Is their’s similar to the Swedish model?
18 The startup costs for the school I referred to in the previous thread were in excess of £20m.
17 I think the idea that society is “broken” need further examination (and it illustrates Labour’s weakness that they have allowed Cameron to get away with saying it enough for it to have become a term regularly used here).
In 1979 it was clear what was wrong with the economy - inflation, excessive union power, relative decline compared to other European countries. But, whilst our society might not be perfect, it strikes me that it is is in many ways better than it has been in the past - people are richer, there are more jobs, there is much more social freedom and equality, travel is much cheaper and easier for most people. The social stigmas attached to gays, single parents, ethnic minorities etc in the past have largely gone - so what, exactly, is broken?
11.With the present economic climate I would imagine finding suitable accommodation is not going to be a problem - it does not need to be a new building. In fact, it might be cheaper to convert a building in a local area.
12.”Fine - this is politics. But lets not dress it up as some sort of One-Nation altruistic “lets make society better” exercise.”
Heaven forbid that we should try to do that in reality, already the red tape introduced by this government is making people more reluctant to take part in any voluntary work involving children. No, its much better to legislate to discourage and penalise than it is to address and implement real changes that might make life better all round.
“so what, exactly, is broken?”
High levels of violent crime, alcoholism, drug abuse, family breakdown, ethnic conflict, fatherless children, and declining social mobility are big problems. They lack simple solutions, and there are bound to be limits to what any government can do, but it’s futile to deny they’re problems.
27. Much higher rates of teenage pregnancy, antisocial behaviour, gun crime, knife crime, drug abuse? Do they count?
You seem to have quite a middle class view of things.
some (not all) of these negatives are getting worse everywhere, despite numerous different approaches to tackling them.
32 That may well be so.
26. I don’t believe those national rankings prove much other than that cultural differences between places like Finland and other countries.
Isn’t the election on 4 November?
Betting on the presidential race is far far too early, the best time is after the convention.
The polls are still over the place ins states which had the primary between Obama and Clinton, and some states like Montana, Indiana, NC which show a tight race may no longer be so tight once the attack ads begin.
35. Should be the 4th…
30, 31 Well for a start levels of family breakdown (as measured by divorce statistics) increased rapidly in the 1980s, but have since levelled off.
I remain to be convinced that levels of anti-social behaviour are any worse now than in the past - our ageing society is perhaps less tolerant of it but more of it than in the past? I doubt it. Remember football hooliganism?
Ethnic conflict? In the UK? Now let’s see, we have the Notting Hill riots in the 1950s, and the Brixton and Liverpool ones in the 1980s (which were not entirely ethnic in origin I agree). There has been nothing comparable in recent years.
Drug abuse - well, yes - that’s supply and demand I’m afraid and I’d defy anyone to predict that a different government would control it. But drugs have always been abused - the Victorians had their opium, in most of the 20th century the drug of choice was tobacco, which undoubtedly caused more death and destruction than any illegal drug used today.
As you say, social probelms lack simple solutions, and the Tories have yet to produce any policy ideas in any of these areas which might suggest that they could actually do anything about them.
35. Yes. First Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
38 Birmingham 2005 ?
Back to the previous topic. Ladbrokes today fielded several thousand pounds worth of bets on Labour for the by-election in two of our Glasgow shops. As a result, we are now 5/6 SNP, 5/6 Labour.
In relation to Mike’s plea for more US prices. I’m not sure there’s really enough interest at this stage for layers to stick up the sort of range of markets mentioned. We haven’t seen much for our prices on Ohio, Florida and Virginia which we’ve had out for a couple of weeks. I suspect things won’t really pick up until the conventions.
38. there were the Oldham race riots as well, so that is a slightly idealised view although there are lots of valid points in there.
38, 42 - people are generally more healthy and mobile than in the past
“30, 31 Well for a start levels of family breakdown (as measured by divorce statistics) increased rapidly in the 1980s, but have since levelled off.”
But, are still at historically, very high levels, as are figures for fatherless children. Ending Legal Aid for divorce, in 2006, has been followed by a sharp reduction in the number of divorces, though.
“I remain to be convinced that levels of anti-social behaviour are any worse now than in the past - our ageing society is perhaps less tolerant of it but more of it than in the past? I doubt it. Remember football hooliganism?”
Well of course, violent crime rates have varied enormously in the past. Levels of violent crime would have been far higher in Georgian, or Medieval England, than they are today - but would have been far lower 50 years ago than they are today.
“Ethnic conflict? In the UK? Now let’s see, we have the Notting Hill riots in the 1950s, and the Brixton and Liverpool ones in the 1980s (which were not entirely ethnic in origin I agree). There has been nothing comparable in recent years.”
People were killed in riots in Birmingham in 2005, and there is ongoing violence between members of different ethnic groups in the UK.
“Drug abuse - well, yes - that’s supply and demand I’m afraid and I’d defy anyone to predict that a different government would control it. But drugs have always been abused - the Victorians had their opium, in most of the 20th century the drug of choice was tobacco, which undoubtedly caused more death and destruction than any illegal drug used today. ”
Granted, it defies easy resolution, but I think most professionals in that field would accept that levels of addiction to hard drugs are greater than they were 30 years ago.
Quite possibly, a Conservative government would have no success in tackling these problems, but they do exist.
38. You’re arguing a weak case here. For a start divorce statistics are a terrible measure of social breakdown, as most examples of family breakdown occur among unmarried couples, or from unwanted births where a father were never present. Secondly, a “leveling off” at a high level hardly means it’s not a problem does it?
As for anti-social behaviour, you seem to be putting your head in the sand. Forty years ago you could leave your doors unlocked in case a visitor came by in many parts of the country - you’ll be lucky to find somewhere like that now. The rise in gun and knife crime is undeniable.
Your argument on drugs is beyond belief. You really think 19th Century opium is anywhere near as powerful as the worst street drugs today? You think tobacco causes the social problems that heroin does?
44. in some ways that tidbit about legal aid proves that divorce rates are not a clean measure of family breakdown. in the past it was socially less acceptable to actually divorce.
drugs we are nowhere near to being on top of, but this is a global tidal wave, as is the organised crime that goes with it. people used to be shocked when a celebrity turned out to have a drug addiction, it is now a talking point when a singer or footballer turns out to be a decent role model.
ethnic conflict is still around for lots of reasons but racism is slowly on the way out, in the ’50s (often invoked as a mythical British golden age for some reason) being extremely racist was the norm.
45 My *personal* experience is similar to that which Nickc sees as general. I’m happily married, middle class, can afford decent holidays, have a nice house etc. Life is, on the whole, pretty good. But, I’m aware it’s not like that for millions of others in the UK.
An interesting point on the electoral college.
I Wonder what impact Arnold Schwarzenegger Democrats in
(http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/arnold-schwarzenegger.jpg )California will have on the whole electoral college. Surely MacCain and Arnie appeal to similar voters and if i am right in thinking that Arnie cannot run again in California, what is to stop him coming out for MacCain big time in California. It must be remembered that Arnie was re-elected in California against the Democratic tide/flood in 2006.
45. you could argue that anti-social behaviour is the result of a lack of respect, and further, that respect is usually strongest in hierarchical, regimented societies where everyone knows their place.
increased individual liberty => anti-social behaviour.
bollocks ed
Tabman & NickC - sorry if I misunderstand you but your point seems to be that society doesn’t exist except for the usual suspects, those elected and those paid by the elected authorities. Its a soul destroying vision for the future of this country. I go along with Cameron - there is a thing called Society, it isn’t the State, except I think that Society is a diversity of societies and communities, linked in different ways by different interests that vary by age, family situation, neighbourhood, sexuality etc. I belong to several communities and have belonged to others.
Perhaps I’m too much of an optimist but it seems to me that people actual manage to build societies and structures that serve pretty well. There are those that need help, those that reject, those that parasite on society but my opinion is you don’t assume and build institutions around failure, organise society around crime & punishment, around ne’r do wells. The great mass, empowered, do actually respond.
We have had six decades of a welfare state where the State has assumed an increasingly central role and on last thread were discussing an area in Scotland with fewer life chances and shorter life spans than places in the developing world. A child a week is knifed to death in this country, hundreds of thousands never get jobs, millions survive on invalidity benefit. Lets try something different, if it fails then try something else but I’m not content with generations of an underclass.
Maybe the Swedish education model won’t fly but diversity and local control seems to me one of the possible solutions. LEAs can built and maintain the structures, let others offer a variety of methods and options.
46 Blunt, unashamed, racial prejudice probably is on the way out. Feelings of racial victimhood, OTOH, are probably increasing.
Repost from Jack W’s post on the previous thread:
New Rasmussen poll for Montana :
McCain 43% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election2
Obviously a good poll for Obama in a very small state but one which has been fairly reliably Republican although it went for Clinton in 1992 when the Perot vote was very strong.
I’m generally quite good at reading US elections, but I must admit to being completely baffled by this one. The reason? To me, both candidates seem unelectably weak.
I know this is a contrarian view of Obama whom everyone else seems to see sweeping all before him. I just don’t buy it. He’s very, very liberal and in an elitist rather than populist way. He completely disconects with the blue collar white voters who decide Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. Add in the thin resume. Add in angry Clintonites. Add in the sort of skeletons anyone with a background in Chicago politics is bound to have.
I just don’t see it…until I look at McCain, who is in a deeper hole. He’s old, he has a mass of enemies in his own party and the GOP “brand” is ruined.
So, I suppose Obama has to win…except…
Which is where I came in.
The Democrats will make a stack of gains in Congress, that’s obvious. But, to me, the White House race is almost unreadable.
34. 26. From what I’ve read about the Finnish education system, they put the emphasis on having high-quality teachers in primary school, rather than secondary school.
50. suggest a counterexample…?
51 - Ted, it seems to me that the problem with the current educational model is that there is too much central control, not too little. I just think this is a sledgehammer to crack a nut, and won’t deliver what Cameron claims of it.
48 - None whatsoever. Obama will probably win California easily. If it is close enough for Arnie’s appeal to be pivotal in that state, Obama will have lost across the country so badly it will be a footnote. Arnie is popular, but not enough for Arnie Democrats to vote McCain in serious numbers when he tells them too.
A bit of polling to do with the broken society:
93% of respondents to a BBC poll would describe themselves as part of a happy family. Up 4% from the time the survey was taken 40 years ago. Yet 70% of people think families have declined overall. I think a lot of the so-called broken society is manufactured, everyone believes it is happening just somewhere outside their own lives.
I dreamed about Obama last night. I blame Jack W for that.
OT but MPs vote againt abolishing the John Lewis list expenses system.
Are they mad?
58 - To add to that, Kerry, Bush and Clinton twice all took the state at a canter with double digit leads and polls have Obama’s lead in the state at or pushing 20%. If he collapses from there in California, it can only be because his campaign has hit a massive pothole nationwide and imploded, not because Arnie has done a rally or three.
55 That’s a sensible education policy that would do more than all these arguments around secondary school structures. Investment in and training for primary education should be top of Michael Gove’s priorities.
and perhaps letting parents set up independent primaries
59, comparing over a 40 year period is dubious. The definition of a happy family have changed and the population as a whole is different.
Not saying the finding is wrong necessarily, just that such a long time difference makes a comparison very difficult.
60- I had dinner last week with an Obama lookalike. I do not blame Jack W.
61 probably - but they are MPs after all (why do you want to join them?)
As long as all the details are published then I’m less concerned - let them face the opposition leaflets detailing their extravagant use of public funds or face deselection by their local party.
60 - You might want to participate in a sequel to this book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Dream-Madonna-Womens-Dreams-Goddess/dp/0500015953/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1215104137&sr=1-1
45 Certainly far more peole have been affected by tobacco than hard drugs - several in my family have died of lung cancer and heart disease and I don’t know anyone who has died through hard drugs. That must be true of most families in the UK - in the 1950s 80% of the male population smoked. The total cost of the ill-health and loss of life caused by smoking is way, way in excess of that caused by all other drugs put together, including alcohol.
I do not know any reliable way of measuring family breakdown when the partners are not married so it is hard to know if this is increasing or not. Fatherless children are not a new phenomenon - there were many millions who grew up during the war years - it is easy to assume that the absence of a father is ipso facto bad, but the hard evidence for this is not easy to find.
And I do doubt that there is more anti-social behaviour now than there was in the past - the idea that you could leave your doors unlocked in years gone by is a parody - in country villages you could but that was because only relatively well-off people had cars that worked - your average burglar was restricted to an old banger that would be lucky to get him down the road let alone out into the country. And poor people on Council estates could because they had nothing worth stealing. But the middle classes certainly didn’t - they were just as paraniod about crime as they are today. And then there was also the threat of squatters - another form of anti-social behaviour which is much less common now than it used to be.
12. etc. Such ‘barriers to entry’ exist in all industries, yet entry (and exit) nevertheless happens, and that process is critical to maintaining efficiency. And where ‘free school’ style systems have been set up in Europe, e.g. Holland new schools have sprung up surprisingly quickly.
Most of the opposition to these ideas is pretty lame, just a front for panic about what breaking the state’s near monopoly of education will unleash - viz. an end to the power of the educational establishment to impose its dogmas and on yet another generation of unfortunate British schoolchildren.
re 398 previous thread. Nick P well done on the restraint. If you’d taken the bet I’d offered the pussies could well have been enjoying more luxury!
54 - I agree there are real question marks over Obama being too liberal for middle America.
But I think you would have trouble making words like “disconnect” and “elitist” stick to him.
The fact is he has pop star appeal. Paradoxically, he is far more capable of getting people out to campaign for him and attend his rallies even amongst the sort of groups who worry about him than his primary or general election opponents. His rallies aren’t populated by elitists (not enough) and often not by African Americans (there aren’t that many in a lot of areas).
So if he loses, it won’t be due to lack of connection or excessive elitism (like Dukakis or Gore). It will be because he worries enough people over issues like liberal views, religion and race.
68. I am someone who has an occasional Taute on Ciggerettes after a few beers have been consumed. I would actually support the complete ban on smoking / Ciggerettes. By that I mean Ban the sale of them/ import/ mail order/ distrubution. I would not make it illegal to smoke simply make it very hard to bring them into the country and distrubute them. It would be much harder for people to start smoking IMO - Of course some people would pedle them still but if you got the number of smokers down to the number of heroin / crack or any other type of hard drug addicts that would be good!
Interestingly surely alchol affects peoples lives more than smoking - Smoking kills people through disease, the number of people caused by violience due to smoking must be sliete unless linked to drinking.
68 Until very recently our annual crime report rarely included burglary or vandalism ( perhaps a report on a domestic dispute, drunkeness and so forth) - I went to Australia for three weeks 8 years back and left my kitchen door not only unlocked but open and only thing that happened was a lot of leaves blown into the kitchen. Last three or four years though its changed - now I check everything before I leave and have put locks on sheds & outbuildings.
68 - Like you, I don’t believe in any mythical golden age in the past. My father tells of how he dislodged the keystone of a bridge with explosives as a child, my mother tells of how mentally handicapped people would be mocked in the street by adults when she was a girl. Some things which would now be dealt with quite severely were not treated as crimes at all in the past.
I part company with you on drugs. Tobacco mainly harms the consumer. Other drugs (including alcohol, by the way) have very harmful effects on society in general. I’m not hugely fussed if people addle their own brains, but I’m a lot more fussed if they start kicking down front doors so that they can steal to sell to fuel their habit.
By the way, there are still plenty of squats round where I live.
The MPs have decided that their pay be set by a committee - and that they wont vote on it. Not stupid are they, the committee is going to double their pay - market rates, etc., etc.
61: Agree with you, test - the vote was still for audits of individual expenses, but against the wider ACA changes: a mistake, in my view. Vast numbers of abstentions.
74, hehe. At school (primary school that is) there was a boy who could barely talk. He wasn’t mental, just had a ton of speaking impediments, was in and out of speech therapy for his entire time there.
I recall one or two teachers being less than sympathetic (this would be a decade and a half or so ago).
If you voted for reform, Nick, well done. The frontbenches were right on this.
74 But it harms society when people die prematurely - I agree that smokers don’t cause drunken aggro in the streets or steal to fund their habit, but tobacco is, overall, much worse because of the financial cost cost of healthcare and the social costs and grief caused through premature death and ill-health. The social cost of a premature death far exceeds that of the aggro caused by 100 drunken kids making a nuisance of themselves - it might be less visible, but it is much more expensive to society, not to mention the families affected.
77 Yeah and that’s another thing - 40 years ago bullying was an accepted part of school life - the teachers often joined in. People would be horrified if that was the case in schools now.
About the new carriers:
“A number of protective measures such as side armour and armoured bulkheads proposed by industrial bid teams have been deleted from the design in order to comply with cost limitations.”
from: http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/cvf/
Hope we don’t have to use them in anger!
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 47%
Note - Gallup will not publish their daily tracker on 4th July.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108643/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-43.aspx
79 - Smokers pay far more in tax than they cost the NHS. If I am being heartless (which I probably am far too often) I would note that if someone works a full or nearly a full working life and then keels over, the state probably does very well out of that financially.
I’m not sure how you can sensibly weigh the grief in the equation. That’s not to say that I want to encourage people to smoke - the very opposite. But I don’t see its consequences as a huge social ill, bearing in mind that smokers do so out of choice.
New Research2000/DKos poll for Connecticut :
McCain 35% .. Obama 57%
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/3/11710/38088/218/545921
79 As 83 mentions smoking is a financial benefit to the country “society”. Smokers don’t tend to draw their pentions quite so much as non smokers….
Ave it 08 confirms that McCain will win in November by a large margin!
86 Don’t tell me…..out of the 570 Electoral Votes available, McCain is going to win all 570.
Nick Palmer, well done for voting for what was right, a proper scrutiny of MPs income and expenses. Your colleagues who put the John Lewis list before common sense will live to regret the avalanche of “freedom of information” requests.
I had hoped that the majority of Honourable Members might have taken a lesson from their MSP colleagues who have one of the tightest salary and expenses scrutiny processes of any legislature in Europe.
Nick do you know something we dont that Ladbrokes are offering odds on you becoming the next permanent leader of the Labour party?
Well folks I am no longer a betting virgin having placed some pounds on the SNP winning Glasgow East at 5/6.
(Even though there are only 538 I should have added.)
87 no I believe that Obama will win DC, some north east states and the west coast and thats it
McCain 6% clear in popular vote and will win the HEART OF AMERICA!
86. McCain will win California - Arnie will see to that!
Interesting actually does California have much of a black population; I am talking in numbers or percent of the population as say the southern states? I know there are a lot Hespinics and some asians in California but what numbers are they could they tip against Obama due to skin colour regardless of the percieved Liberal tolerance of the golden state?
90 How much are you betting.
What interets me about that poll is if McCain gets a 2% swing in his favour on those figures, he wins pretty big too. Given all the hugely positive coverage Obama has had, and add in the fact the Republican convention will be after the Democrats, so McCain should be the one with momentum coming out of the convention season, and Obama’s position is actually nowhere near as good as the headline electoral college figures suggest.
90 Ave it 08’s US presidential projection = Watford FC =
91 Martin D. McCain’s only 28 points adrift in the latest Rasmussen poll for California, so no problem there !!
92 Ave it is not betting - but giving the benefit of his wisdom to this website.
Ave it says McCain to win OH, PA, MN, IA and WI (and obviously IN by 20%).
91 Mc Cain is not = Kinnock as he is a WINNER
Martin Day, brought to you courtesy of google:
“California is one of the most ethnically diverse regions of the world. The ethnic breakdown of the state’s population as of March 2001 is as follows:
American Indian/ Eskimo/ Aleut 1.0%
Asian/Pacific Islander 12.5%
Black (non-Hispanic) 6.7%
Hispanic 31.5%
Caucasian (non-Hispanic) 48.3%
Among the states, California has the largest number of senior citizens living within its borders. More than four million residents are more than 60 years of age.”
93 Kevin A. Guess who’s appearing at the GOP Convention ??
94 Ave it is no longer interested in football but instead spreading his worldwide expertise to the USA front!
98 “Ave it is no longer interested in football…”
But as a Watford fan you NEVER were interested in football!
98 Not surprised. Watford = Solomon Islands football Team. HA HA HA HA HA.
54 - good post Aristotle. I think in any other year Obama may be unelectable - it’s just that the GOP is so bust it’s difficult to see how McCain’s team can turn it around.
But we all remember that other northern liberal - Dukakis who was (IIRC) further ahead than Obama is at the same stage. He got trashed by the Republican attack dogs and Willie Horton. We’ll see if there is a similar moment this time - but given the Clintons couldn’t destroy his campaign with the material they had it’s difficult to imagine what’s left that can do enough damage to derail Obama’s bid.
99. What do Watford and RSPB have in common? They spend all day looking up at the Sky.
The GOP Convention picture worth another couple of points for Obama :
http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/426/bush_mccain.jpg
101 Dan. Illinois is hardly “northern liberal” !!
101 Indeed the GOP problem is that Obama is already perceived as as more Liberal than Dukakis even after Atwater got through with him and still he leads. If the best the GOP has is hey hey Obama’s Liberal! The American public are likely to say no sh!t we’re voting for him anyway! It’s hard to see how they can hurt him on that. Their only hope is the CiC point.
103 brilliant - moving from one great president to another!
USA is land of the free!!!
54, 101. I think this idea that Obama is ultra-liberal is complete drivel. I mean, I’m a British conservative and I’m to the left of him in US terms. The guy is pro-faith in politics, pro-death penalty, pro-performance related pay for teacher, pro-expanding the military. The only issue you could say he’s left of mainstream on is abortion, but on that issue McCain (and most Republicans) are way out to the right.
100/102 are you luton 08/09 -15 already? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
54. The anger of Clintonites is exagerrated too. Out of all the Clinton supporters I knew, about 3/4 changed over with no problems, and the rest were highly disappointed but went along with sadness.
And I’m a close follower of Illinois politics. Obama is clean - that’s why the GOP has been left with “he was once in a room with Bill Ayers”.
Plus, it’s not just the Republican brand that is ruined. On every major issue, the public agrees with the Democratic position. If the GOP thinks it can just detoxify and come back it’s kidding itself - it needs new ideas.
108. The most ridiculous punishment to screw the new owners and the fans for the crimes of the previous board. Especially as they added a fine for corruption because the ex-manager blew the whistle on it. The FA are a f**king joke.
93. Is that after the Ron Paul protest?
110 actually i feel sorry for luton (i’ve never got excited over the watford-luton thing) unless of course they start taking the p*ss out of watford or MCCAIN.
I do hope Andrew Gillighan will be as forensic in his investigation of Mr Johnson’s deputy mayor, as he was of Livingstone’s associates.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7488006.stm
113, do you hope the BBC gives the matter the corresponding amount of coverage?
112 Enjoy League 1. Back to the dungeons where you belong….
O/T But the LD By-Election delusion begins again…
http://www.libdemvoice.org/news-from-glasgow-east-2963.html#comments
The problem with electoral-vote.com is that they use only the most recent poll, no matter what organisation, so they get a lot of Mickey Mouse results and no overall view. Their poor record in 2004 makes me cautious, as opposed to other sites like fivethirtyeight.com which has a real statistical depth to it.
Off to read the thread now, I’ll post my updated EV totals when done!
114
I’m sure that its all, ‘A Pyramid of Piffle’
re 117 not an inverted one then?
118
That sounds like a perversion to me!
“I know this is a contrarian view of Obama whom everyone else seems to see sweeping all before him. I just don’t buy it. He’s very, very liberal and in an elitist rather than populist way. ”
Haha! Sorry, just had to laugh, I know *exactly* what you’ve been reading.
It’s bollocks by the way, maybe you haven’t seen the netroots getting all antsy after finding out that Obama isn’t the left winger they want him to be.
As for elitist - two words for ya - John McCain.
You want elite, he’s the one, none of this Rove crap this time thank you very much.
112 Watford fans spend more-than average in Argos-as there they can get Premier Points
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com is like this but much better.
The thing about Ave It 08 is that as bonkers as (s)he is, the predictions do seem to come true … Con Gain Jarrow!
113,
Channel 4 news and Jon Snow went big on it tonight.
Does`nt look good the Deputy Conservative of London v the Church of England arguing over the truth.
Obama’s political position, as per,
You have to be very, *very* right wing or an extreme christianist to find Obama to be a leftie.
Here’s Daniel Hannan, Tory MEP - “Barack Obama is no Leftie”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2008/07/02/barack_obama_is_no_leftie
And, per Andrew Sullivan.
“But British conservatives don’t regard first trimester abortion rights as a right or left issue; and, as in most other civilized countries, Brits now uncontroversially embrace legal rights for gay couples. Toryism is also agnostic on embryonic stem cell research. So remove the Christianist elements of Republicanism, assume that conservatism has some interest in fiscal responsibility (no longer true of the GOP, alas), and why exactly should a Tory fear Obama?
In a British context, Obama is a one-nation Tory. Not a Thatcherite, to be sure, but well within the historic boundaries of British conservatism. Maybe that’s why I don’t fear him in the slightest. And I don’t think of myself as in any way a lefty either.”
124 But matched against that:
Vote on MP’s Expenses
The vast majority of MPs — 146 of the 172 — who voted to keep the “John Lewis list” were Labour, including 33 ministers. There were bad tempered scenes in the division lobbies culminating in a shouting match between George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, and Ian Austin, Gordon Brown’s aide. Tories sources said Mr Osborne accused Mr Austin of behaving in a shameful way while David Cameron was sworn at by a Labour MP.
A raft of Cabinet ministers, including Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, Shaun Woodward, the Northern Ireland Secretary and Andy Burnham, the Culture Secretary voted for the “wrecking” amendment to stop the reforms. The Prime Minister did not turn up to vote.
126, quivering in the bunker no doubt.
126 continued:
Forgot the link in the Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4264378.ece
126 - Snouts in trough, scrabbling over what’s left before the cull.
This is all very unedifying, you’d think that a party would try and impress the electorate when in danger of defeat rather than proving every single one of the accusations against it.
I think its absurd to try and relate OBL to anything that exists in the Western political tradition. The nearest might be some extreme right-wing religious cult, the sort that exists in the USA, but even that would be stretching it.
125- ukPaul- I find your attempts to characterise Obama as an upstanding Tory as somewhat sad, and just a tad deluded. Obama is a bonafide lefty. Embrace it comrade.
129 see that the Wintertons joined Labour in voting down the proposal. Hopefully the Party leadership will impose Party rules.
131. Again, on what issue is Obama particularly left-wing?
130. http://www.alternet.org/story/43182/
tyson, Socrates:
You see Obama’s brilliance: everyone claims him as their own. He is perhaps, and I mean this as an enormous compliment, an American Tony Blair. Even down to the troublesome wife and issues with religion.
The only differences between Obama and Blair is that Obama was never a communist as a youth, and he’s a much better speaker.
New RI College poll for Rhode Island :
McCain 25% .. Obama 53%
http://www.ric.edu/bgrs/pdf/BGRSSurveyJune16-2008_percentages.pdf
Still OBL does have some friends in high places!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1031611/Sharia-law-SHOULD-used-Britain-says-UKs-judge.html
‘I wanted to be a Judge, but I never had the Latin, and you can’t be a Judge if you don’t have the Latin’.
@129 - yep, thats the way it looks from here too.
New Strategies 360 poll for Washington State :
McCain 39% .. Obama 47%
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/142532.asp
re 127 probably hasn’t made his mind up yet.
113 Coldstone.., Should you not wonder why the BBC are going full tilt at this whilst giving little coverage to that of the Lee Jasper investigation…
135. I’m fully aware of the differences I have with Obama, as he’s probably more right-wing than me on a few social issues, and bit to the left economically. I just think the guy is firmly centre-left in US politics, which would be centre/centre-right in the UK.
Updated EV prediction
Definite Obama - Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), DC (3), Delaware (3), Illinois (21), Pennsylvania (21), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4) New Hampshire (4) RUNNING TOTAL 242 Delegates
Probable Obama - Ohio (20), Michigan (17)
RUNNING TOTAL 279 Delegates
Leaning Obama - New Mexico (5), Colorado (9) RUNNING TOTAL 293 Delegates
Definite McCain - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), Arizona (10), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3) RUNNING TOTAL 154 Delegates
Probable McCain - North Dakota (3) RUNNING TOTAL 157 Delegates
Leaning McCain - Florida (27), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Alaska (3), Montana (3) RUNNING TOTAL 216 Delegates
Too close to call - Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Nevada (5)
MOVEMENT SINCE PREVIOUS STATE OF PLAY
TOWARDS MCCAIN
West Virginia (5) Definite McCain moved from probable McCain
Missouri (11) Leaning McCain moved from too close to call
Florida (27), Leaning McCain moved from leaning Obama
Colorado (9) Leaning Obama from probable Obama
TOWARDS OBAMA
Wisconsin (10) Definite Obama moved from probable Obama
New Hampshire (4), Definite Obama, moved from leaning Obama
Michigan (17) Probable Obama moved from too close to call
Nevada (5) Too close to call from leaning McCain
Montana (3) Leaning McCain from definite McCain
North Dakota (3) Probable McCain moved from definite McCain
Obama – 293 EV (-10), McCain 183 EV (+33), Toss Up 52 EV.
McCain helped by pushing FL & MO into the leaning column for him, McCain’s problem is that Obama is strong enough in Definite and Probable states to win without anything else. McCain’s support is more shallow and contingent on flipping all states that are too close to call, all leaning Obama states and either Ohio or Michigan, both of which have trended strongly to Obama after the end of the primaries.
113 - why, have you some reason to think that it won’t be fulled investigated?
123 TY i’m the future!
PS don’t participate in my unit trust advice - 9% down in 6 weeks!!!!!!!!
My first ever stocks and shares ISA - fortunately only £250pm - if I had put the £3,600 in at the start I would be £500 down!!!
I blame Labour - wwhere’s my money Gordon.
So with the News shows focussing on “146 out of 172″ Labour MPs and “cameron being sworn at for voting for reform”, can any of these “sleaze” stories really cause the Tories any damage?
131 - That isn’t what I was trying to do, just pointing out that he isn’t a raving leftie as is being portrayed. If a lot of tories feel comfortable with him then what’s to worry about?
In comparison to the US our right wing are soft and cuddly on the whole, yes there are GOP christianist types but they are not in the forefront of the tories the way they are for the Republicans.
New thread- Will the 172 “John Lewis” listers pay an electoral price?
SNP candidate chosen for Glasgow East is Cllr John Mason
http://www.snp.org/node/14017
Does anyone know where you can get a map of the USA that shows the states in proportion to their electoral college votes? I’m sure I’ve seen one previously and urgently need to get my hands on one.
Here- http://files.blog-city.com/files/A05/141484/p/f/statecartogramelectoral.jpg
Just google, Cartogram and electoral vote
131 You’re right. Obama is definitely a bona fide Leftie, and that’s how he’ll govern. Nothing illegitimate about that, but right wingers who try to persuade themselves he’s really one of them delude themselves.