Could either of these become the greatest Tim in history?
July 5th, 2008
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Are Kaine (left) and Pawlenty (right) on-track for the Vice-Presidency?
“If Henman ever wants to win Wimbledon, he’ll have to change his name. Henman was the first person named Tim to achieve anything at all… The (name’s) association is with ‘timid’ and ‘timorous’ from the Latin ‘timere’: to fear … The real puzzle is that the Tims do as well as they do.”
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– Martin Amis (as found on InsideTennis)
Amis was wrong in at least one respect – the name Timothy has Greek roots (Τιμόθεος – meaning ‘honouring God’) - but he did pick up an interesting point: that, given its comparitive popularity, very few Tims (including Henman) have ever achieved greatness. The only other two who came to mind when I faced this challenge were Sir Tim Berners-Lee (who invented the internet) and Tim Russert, the great American journalist who sadly passed away only weeks ago.
Now that the unbearable weight of Wimbledon-based expectation has been passed onto the young shoulders of Andy Murray, there is also a vacancy for the world’s most successful Tim (in the eyes of Amis at least). There is a reasonable chance that the next great Tim will in fact be the next Vice President of the United States.
Betting on the Vice-Presidential race is, in the view of most serious political punters (including Mike Smithson), little better than a crap-shoot. Too much of it relies on personal relationship (or lack thereof), and the sensible electoral calculus of the commentariat and psephologists is torn asunder by the ravages of internal party politicking or a lack of personal chemistry. That said, I still find it one of the most enjoyable horse races in politics, and pre-evaluating the impact that each potential choice would have on the Presidential contest should give us a head-start if the markets move when an annoucement is finally made.
TIM PAWLENTY is the Governor of Minnesota, and has been one of the most loyal McCain supporters since the very beginning, by agreeing to co-chair the Exploratory Committee back in January 2007. That sort of personal loyalty goes a long way with McCain, given that this was far from the smoothest of paths to the nomination. He is also well-regarded in the GOP, even allowing Norm Coleman to take the Republican nomination for an open US Senate seat unopposed at the behest of Vice-President Dick Cheney. He is fiscally very conservative, and although he has never performed brilliantly in his election or re-election campaigns (never more than 50% of the vote), his popularity will have been boosted by bringing the GOP Convention in a Presidential election year to the twin cities of Minneapolis-St Paul.
I suspect he would provide ballast for McCain on domestic issues, given his executive experience, and would be a popular choice amongst most conservative voters – certainly nothing to scare the horses. His support for ethanol could help John McCain in Iowa (McCain has opposed subsidies, essentially giving this corn-growing Bush State to the candidate it launched – Barack Obama), and given the wafer thin margin of Democratic victories in both Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2004, he may be a smart choice to force the Democrats to tend to their own swing states. There is an interesting piece from Real Clear Politics here.
TIM KAINE is the Governor of Virginia, and whose endorsement of Barack Obama was, in my view, one of the more important endorsements that the presumptive Democratic nominee received. Virginia is high on the list of Bush states that Obama is hoping to take – former Governor Mark Warner is also running to join Jim Webb in the US Senate.
Kaine is, by all accounts, a good Governor, and has built on the foundations (some would say travelled on the coattails) of the work Mark Warner did previously. A Southern Governor would balance the ticket, and would provide executive experience to Obama’s relatively short legislative record. His position on social issues may ameliorate some Republicans as well – he opposes the death penalty in principle but has allowed six exections as Governor, he opposes abortion personally (not legislatively) and has voted against partial-birth, and disagrees with same-sex marriage though vetoed an amendment to ban it. This could be seen as flip-flopping, or it could be that Democrats will see someone who votes their way, and Republicans will see an influence on Obama that accords with their values. I think he would be an interesting choice.
Interestingly, both Kaine and Pawlenty were invited to a joint-interview/debate on Fox News Sunday back at the beginning of June, an both were asked about their respective chances of the Vice-Presidency. A transcript of this segment can be found here. For my part, I think Pawlenty is significantly more likely to be chosen than Kaine, although both could expect a prominent role in the enxt administration if their chosen candidate is successful.
So there may not be many great men in history called Tim, but in spite of the dangers of this unpredictable betting market, I can’t help but feel that the next Vice President of the United States (and possibly the next POTUS-but-one) could well go one step further in proving Martin Amis wrong.
Morus
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Tim Rice, Tim Bell, Tiny Tim, Tim Nice-but-Dim?
Sir Timothy Kirkhope?!
1 - Amis rests his case…
Tim Henman? Timothy Lumsden (remember him?)
Wasn’t the Dog in the Famous Five called Timmy ?
The list would be incomplete without our very own soothsayer and LibDem polling guru Big Tall Tim
I think Kaine endorsed earlier in the primaries, not totally sure but i seem to remember him being one of Obama’s earlier backers, although I’m still inclinded to see him as a long shot for the VP.
Tim Montgomery?
“Greatest Tim in history”
I thought for a second you were still on about Celtic !
Timmy Mallett?
Tim Roth?
6 I’ve just checked and it’s my bad - I read this article, and took the February endorsement to be in 2008, not in 2007.
http://www.jacksonville.com/apnews/stories/021707/D8NBP4AG2.shtml
I’ve updated the article - good spot. Kaine was the first statewide official from outside of Illinois to endorse Obama.
Kaine? No foreign policy/national security expertise. It seems highly unlikely that Obama would choose anyone who doesn’t tick all three of these boxes, which Obama palpably doesn’t tick:
1. Southerner/Westerner
2. Known national security expert
3. Old/wise/wisened
Kaine only ticks one of those boxes. I think you’d need to be very rich to back him. I’ve put (very modest) money on Nunn, Richardson and Gore, and currently Gore is my favourite.
12. Maybe if Gore becomes Vice President again he can use his position in the Senate to not vote for Kayto, again.
9 You beat me to it
(His cover of Itsy Bitsy hit no.1 the very day in August 1990 that I received my ‘A’ level results )
My latest political feeling (although I am not naturally a person who beams from ear to ear anyway!)
3 Well recalled-the sitcom ‘Sorry!’,where Ronnie Corbett played a 40-something still under the cosh of his over-protective mother
13. I think Gore is very unlikely, for three reasons:
(1) Why would anyone want to be VP a second time - especially after running at the top of the ticket? He’s been there and done that.
(2) He represents the past, not the future, and undermines Obama’s efforts to reach out to the centre. Gore would be on the Democratic ticket in four out of five general elections between 1992 and 2008; that’s a long run in national politics, especially for someone not notably talented.
(3) The environment represents a poor focus for Democratic idealism in this economic context. Obama should act on it by all means, but he’d be unwise to campaign on it. If Gore goes on the ticket it will become a central theme, whether Obama likes it or not.
O/T - Is anyone else worried at the lack of public disgust ove rthe student murders in London? I suppose if we were dealing with a couple of beautiful young British women rather than a pair of nerdy male French science students there would be rather more outrage.
18 The crime is horrific;doubtless a subtle xenophobia/Francophobia is shown by people not screaming at the top of their lungs on this one-at the end of the day a life is a life,though,and my thoughts and prayers are with the beraeved’s families
Surely the most famous and popular TIM in history is the speaking clock?
Margaret Curran joins the race
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7491574.stm
there will be a nominal selection procedure on Monday
20. There’s Tim Buck, too.
Ahem.
And NOT forgetting Tim Brooke-Taylor of the 1970s comedy ‘The Goodies’ !!
11 - It always struck me as interesting that Kaine, a fairly high-profile, moderate, governor in a red state was an early backer of Obama. I’d still expect Jim Webb to be the most likley pick out of Virginia Dems, although overall i think his stock may have fallen a little of late.
Pawlenty has long been up there in the marketplace, one of the reasons why I didnt back him ironically, as he didnt seem to offer a bet/lay opportunity in the crowded, flavour of the week style VP race where getting on early then laying off was really what it was all about for me.
His fairly steady position in the market may well be a sign of his consistent prominence in the minds of the Mccain campaign and his name has been bandied about more and more in the last couple of weeks.
As for the Dem VP choices, no idea.
OT anyone any thoughts on the Tour De France? I backed Oscar Pereiro Siro last year (in hat was apparently not a great year for him) and he did well (10th, 14 minutes down) without being in the money. He did however spend a lot of his time trying to help Valverde who today seems to have put down his marker as being the real deal this year. If Pereiro is going to play support to a serious player in Valverde he will be dragged into a very prominent place. If he is allowed to have his head he perfectly capable of doing good business in the mountains that again should see him prominent making some place betting maybe worth while. I’d rather look at big place odds on someone like him than play around with much shorter prices on the front few in the market.
Anyone any thoughts?
Sio
Whats with the rumours about Ann Widdecome standing down ? Any truth ? I know its a safe seat but why force a by election more than half way through a parliament ?
Back on topic, my dad’s name is Timothy and I’m sur he wouldn’t mind me saying that he has yet to achieve greatness.
Just seen this article on Dundee council and smoking. I checked it wasn’t 1st April. Sounds truly absurd.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/06/carrots_for_fags.html
Point 1. How are they going to know if these people have quit? Conduct regular blood tests?
Point 2. What about the less well off who don’t smoke and might think good quality fruit and veg is too expensive - strawberries don’t come cheap. Presumably as non-smokers they aren’t entitled to such privileges.
22 - Shall I get your coat?
27 She’s standing down at the next GE but I haven’t heard anything about her standing down earlier. Where did you get that from?
28. Yes. they will have to be tested to get the vouchers.
It sounds bonkers, indeed it is bonkers but it might work. I once worked in a needle exchange for heroin addicts. Looked at it logically handing out free tax payer funded equipment to people with which to break the law is an absurdity. Until you think they will do it anyway and this way they will be safer. As well as saving a fortune on i/v transmited infections. Its called a “Harm reduction” model.
28, the intellectually deficient amongst our rulers seem to think throwing money at a problem solves it.
What people need is willpower, determination to succeed, not government handouts.
There were rumours on a couple of LD blogs today which confirmed other infomation I recieved yesterday. The LD’s think she may go early and are preparing. I just wondered
- why do they think that?
- is it a load of old cobblers ?
18. Several factors can play into this, the BBC is so utterly dominant in the uk media, that it playing or not playing of a story can make or break whether or not the other outlets pick it up.
The problem with that is, the BBC, for reasons of ‘community cohesion’, is sometimes willing to play down stories that look like showing a member of a minority group in a bad light.
Why are we so obsessed with getting people to stop smoking. Yes it’s bad for you, but we live in a free society and alcohol arguably does more damage in general.
I grew up in a smoky household and didn’t like it, but wht of the kids growing up in and around poverty, who’s parents spend £30 a week on fags. I really believe the best way to reduce child poverty would be to reduce the price of cigarettes. Not Gordon Brown’s totally bankrupt statistical measure of child poverty, but measured in REAL terms.
27, 30 - would be very interesting. She has a huge personal vote.
The Tories picked up the council this year for the first time in 25 years, but much of the borough, including large parts of the town itself are in Faversham and Mid Kent.
One day, they will recreate a proper seat of Maidstone, not the daft shaped mess there is at the moment.
I haven’t heard Widdy would do that.
\very talented Tory ppc, another black woman this time Helen Grant.
33: I’d be surprised. We’re on good terms (cats!) and I asked her recently about the next election - she confirmed she wouldn’t be standing again but certainly gave me the impression she was staying till the election.
35: reduce child poverty, increase early adult death - not a great idea IMO. And it’s too generalised to suggest that most poor parents smoke - the proportion’s higher than among the rich, but it’s going down in all groups.
34. Is there reason to believe the perpetrators are from a minority community?
35. my liberal instincts tell me to leave well alone. Why should the state regulate a persons smoking anymore than there sex life. However with a ever rising life expectancy I suspect western health systems won’t be able to afford liberalism.
The sheer cost of smoking to the health service will be used to justify ever increasing authoritarianism. Then they’ll go after junk food with a Fat Tax.
40. If there was, the BBC wouldn’t tell us. The facts are very hazy, the suggestion is that the two got tortured for their credit card pins. This kind of fraud (and tactics) is a MO of organised eastern European gangs.
Of course these are just generalities.
39 - The reason I focused on the effect on poor people is that £30 a week, or £60 for 2 parents is not too hard to bear for middle class families. But it a lot for poor people. Labour continues to use a measure of poverty that effectively means inequality and yet they refuse to reform the tax system by moving away from indirect taxes and towards more direc ones - surely the only real way to tackle poverty.
The easiest way to reduce inequality is to reduce taxes on the poor and increase them on the rich.
43. Why not reduce taxes for everyone?
18. What gets me is that you’ve got to be under 16 years old - or meet a particularly grizzly and torturous death - for your murder to even merit any media coverage at all these days. If you’re a 34 year old, Tunisian shopkeeper in the Old Kent Road, stabbed to death protecting your till, the TV studios won’t even send a reporter. That happened on Monday, but I guess when something’s so commonplace, it’s no longer news.
IMO, the bar was re-set last February when three south London under-16-year-olds were murdered in the same week. And even then the story only really took off because the murder scene (in Clapham North) was an quick drive from the TV studios, there was easy parking for the satellite vans, and plenty of nice cafes for the media bods to hang out in between live news bulletins. Plus the victim was a good looking white boy, albeit with a black makeover.
It was that week that the term ‘gang’ was given currency by Blair. Very bad mistake to have used that word. It hadn’t really been used before in respect of groups of teenage friends engaged in the usual petty law breaking that many fatherless teenagers get up to. The media went overboard and published the names of 300 London ‘gangs’ (many of them no doubt invented) and suddenly every kid in town had to decide whether or not they should to be in ‘gang’. The narrative changed and the culprits went from being plain murderers to being gang members.
It’s got worse since then. Imported Jamaica and America criminal culture (ethos, fashion, music, art) has been adopted by many young black Londoners and it cannot be discouraged because of multiculturalism. Of course other ethic groups and whites are affected - or infected - by it too. It’s get-rich-quick-or-die-young-trying, and so long as the downside to getting caught breaking the law is so small, and notions of guilt or shame are alien, a lot of kids are giving it a go. Sad state of affairs really.
42. The story about PINS doesn’t make a lot of sense. Who would refuse to reveal their PIN before being tortured? You would hope to get your money back.
39. Indeed. I heard some particularly tasteless council by election speculation the other day about a very ill councillor. Said person was very excited and demanding preparations. I pointed out I had first had this conversation over 10 years ago! I will be lighting a candle at communion tommorrow for there good health.
On that Mori poll.
The inflation worry will slip well back down by 2010. Inflation will rise a bit for a year, and then, the Bank will get it under control. We’ve solved this one. In the US, it may be different, as they’re more scared of recession than inflation, unlike here. Each central bank is scarred by its experience. The UK has the 70s. In the US, it’s still all dominated by the 30s.
Similarly the economic situation is likely to be on the mend by 2010, though still not exactly rosy.
As for petrol prices, they may be permanently higher by then, but we may also be used to it.
46. But they would put up resistance. The attack seems to have been incredibly vicious, maybe one of the most vicious for some time, the victims where repeatedly stabbed even after they had stopped breathing, and then set alight. The pure brutality is shocking.
45. thats why ( don’t tell anyone) I thought the Ray Lewis appointment was a brave move by Boris. John Sentamu raised the issue in his Synod speech today. Addressing real issues not gays and Women. How dare he!
Remember the Labour MP who told his constituent to stick his vote whereever he liked?
Here’s the full version of the letter.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_0_1jH0TaDjU/SGvULd1mXBI/AAAAAAAABws/HecGBdl0zIU/s1600-h/clelland+letter.jpg
h/t luke akehurst, sorry.
51. If a local councillor sent out such a letter (was it sent on HofC paper?) to one of his constituents, he would be up before the standards board pretty darn quickly, and suitably punished.
actually I had some sympathy, but he should have controlled himself and been polite as well as curt.
51. Did that go out on House of Commons note paper with a tax payer funded stamp ? I mean we have all thought it and on exceptional occassions said it but you can’t use official resources to put it in writing.
Ave it says Con rules ok!!!
53. If the Standards Board applied to the Commons we’d have a By Election most weeks.
With reference to resignations [I need to see this sourced - MS]
58. Did he plead guilty to all the charges? They seemed to be quite a list.
re 58 I had to check to be sure too.
http://www.coastaladvertiser.co.uk/content/coastal/default/story.aspx?brand=ADVOnline&category=CoastalNews&tBrand=ADVOnline&tCategory=CoastalNews&itemid=IPED04%20Jul%202008%2010%3A29%3A58%3A660
58 yes make sure it is substantiated please
55: Yes you can - we are allowed (indeed expected) to reply on Parliamentary paper, and there is no law governing what we are allowed to say, and if there were it would be something about not canvassing for votes - it wouldn’t be a bar on telling them to get lost!
I thought the last line unwise, but otherwise, if the original letter to him was in fact rude, it seems to me quite defensible.
59 Originally he pleaded not guilty but changed this immediately prior to the commencement of his trial see also report in EADT
58/63 Mark Senior
Didn’t he used to be a regular poster on this site ?
53: oh, and a local councillor a few years ago told a constituent that if he hated everything so much he ought to emigrate. The constituent went to the press, but it wasn’t seen as a disciplinary offence. People feel they can say anything they like to politicians (I had an email 10 minutes ago saying he would like to put Jack Straw against a wall and shoot him). We have the right to be frank back - I don’t say it’s wise, but I’m damned if I see why it should be illegal.
On Glasgow East. Stuart predicts Lib Dems may be 5th - after who? I wouldn’t be surprised mind you, but I’m wondering whether you mean after the Greens, Scottish Socialists, or even UKIP? The Lib Dems will clearly take a nasty drubbing this time round - not that it matters. Tories will be third - possibly second if Labour get a real thrashing?
If the SNP win they’ll hold - that sounds a pretty reasonable prediction. But as for what happens in 2011, that’s unpredictable, surely. The SNP may make a mess of things. Labour may ditch brown, call an election, be beaten, and the Tories have time to mess things up in teh UK by then.
I remember Ben Redsell’s posts, and am sorry he has chosen to commit acts which have ruined his caseer in politics (and probably outside it too). Sadly, there are many similar examples on all three main parties. If the national press screamed “SCANDAL!” every time a local councillor came into court, we’d probably have people arguing for abolition of local government by now.
55. I was being rhetorical but I didn’t make that clear. Perhaps it is within the rules but it should not be. I’m 100% clear that if I had sent that letter of Council note paper i’d be up before the standards board. In fact it would never have gone because officers wouldn’t have typed it.
65 I agree - its like the footballers who get a pile of abuse from the terraces - you have sympathy if they have a go back!
Although of course all labour views are wrong!
After seeing the Criminal Justice drama broadcast over the last few nights (I recorded it and we watched it in two goes), the pressure, if it is realistic, put on people to plead guilty to make it a quick and softer sentencing is incredible.
A change of plea at the last minute was just what the drama was suggesting might happen.
How close was that to reality? Anyone in the business?
65. I agree entirely that some people need frankness and I have done it myself. I just think when you are using tax payer resources you need to be polite.
re 65. Well said Nick.
I know it’s not on the same scale but one of the great benefits of not being a councillor any more is that I don’t have to be nice to the cretins who feel they can barge into my life at any time on any occasion.
If members of the public cannot at least behave in a civil manner then why should elected representatives not respond in kind?
The John Lewis listers. Presumably these are all backbenchers in safe seats that vote for this, aren’t they?
73 Like Jacqui Smith in Redditch?
72 Because they are supposed to be leaders not followers of fashion especially when that fashion is rudeness.
Given the Labour Party’s performance so far in Glasgow East - does anyone else think they stand a good chance of making a cock up of their nominations and be disqualified from standing?
76 - while that would be hilarious, I don’t think it will happen simply because they would bend the rules somehow to allow for an ‘exception’ which mysteriously only applies to Labour.
I think Pawlenty would be a terrible choice for McCain, but he certainly seems to be very high in the campaign’s thinking. They seem to be under the impression he would put Minnesota & Wisconsin in play, although as the polls in the upper midwest are trending towards Obama they might give up on that idea. I still can’t understand why Crist isn’t a certainty for this position.
As for Kaine. Head says a strong possibility. Heart says no, and I don’t know why. All thre Virginians support off-shore drilling, mainly because its very popular in Virginia, which could be a problem for their VP prospects.
Al Gore has zero chance. Obama’s made very clear in the last couple of weeks he doesn’t want to be seen as left-wing, and Al Gore has already been framed as that by the right-wing media. I still think Mark Warner has a good chance. He’s denied he’d take it, in broad terms of “any other office”, but that was because he had to as he’s in the middle of a campaign and it was becoming a distraction.
68, 72: yes, the last line of the letter was rude, the rest was merely blunt. I think it’s undesirable to be rude in almost any context, but free speech should apply to councillors and MPs too whebn replying in a personal capacity. This doesn’t apply to an official reply to a request for council services or personal help, of course, but it’s clear that David Clelland was replying to someone having a go at his political views.
You don’t type your own letters, Yellow Submarine? Why not? Someone obviously as comfortable as you with a computer would surely find it maddening to have every letter held up while some official gets round to typing it? Or were you in fact thinking in terms of an official reply from the council?
And Tim Robbins, of Shawshank Redemption and Mystic River fame, certainly deserves a mention. One of my favourite actors!
76 LOL hope so - that would be the end of Labour as a credible party!
And con would govern for evermore with 500 maj!!!!
A couple more. There’s Tim Burton of course, who provokes a mixed reaction.
But I’d say the greatest Tim of all was Tim Berners-Lee, who invented the world wide web, without which politicalbetting.com would be impossible!
I’ve got a brother called Tim. Enough said
81, Labour’s a credible party?
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108634/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Points-47-42.aspx
84
82. We have a winner!
65.
Time is littered with such frank expressions!
Matthew Parris did a similar thing when he worked in the leader of the oppositions office (Mrs T, he sent a letter to this lady comlaining about her council housing saying she should be greatful the state provides her with one etc! It made it to the front page of the daily mirror back in 1979! (IIRC). Interestingly enough he was another animal lover, he jumped into the thames to save a dog in the middle of winter!
Parris is an interesing person, maybe he should stand against Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam! I believe he is friends though with Nick Clegg (Not No.31 though!!!!
). So he probably will not! Plus he obviously did not like being an MP because he jacked it in in 1986! Funnily enough i do not remember him on weekend world but i do remember Brain Walden in about 1982/3, discussing Nuclear weapons. As a child i used to be terrified that we were going to be nuclear bombed!
72 I agree - elected representatives should feel free to respond as is their wont, and the electorate will judge them accordingly. However the representatives should also remember that they bring a lot of the anger on themselves by the way in which they legislate. Anger over 42 days, for example, is quite justified. Those that voted in favour of it have betrayed democracy and liberty in my opinion, ratcheting up detention without trial on the flimsiest of evidence - 12 sledgehammers to a single nut. The letter in question is quite irate in tone. Whilst this is entriely up to the MP in question, one wonders of the irritation is symptomatic of something else - the MP doth protest too much.
So there won’t be any polls tonight?
90
I believe polls are no longer in fashion, the people demand a fresh stick with which to beat Gordon and his assorted toadies, groupies and sycophants.
90 POLL UPDATE:
Con lots Lab not much LDs
cheers Ave It! I value your impartial analysis.
We are at an interesting point in British Politics, the Labour party may well start a mederate recovery in the next 6 months. This is unlikely to be at the expense of the Conservatives but at the expense of the liberal democrats whose soft vote may well be squeesed between the two big parties. It is looking increasingly like the LD’s will need to replace the Bird of Freedom with a dead parrot.
The next election is clearly going to be a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. The LD’s seem to be dissapearing from the media like the ice & snow at the polls. I was interested in seeing the LD Voice website actively calling for establishment of a new party with Labour! Surprised at this as Labour is hardly the party of freedom!
93 TY pleased to help!!
94 ‘It is looking increasingly like the LD’s will need to replace the Bird of Freedom with a dead parrot’: LOOOOOOOOOOOOL!
Mark Senior you still there?!
94. Interesting? Depends on your definition, I suppose.
Now 47 years ago this month, something *very* interesting entered into British politics.
http://tinyurl.com/6kt5fn
@92:
Based on Ave It’s IMPARTIAL ANALYSIS, I’ve just staked three of my most valuable organs on Con Gain Bootle.
I CAN’T LOSE.
92 “Lab not much”
Ave It - are you sure? Seems quite a bit more than expected…
95. His doing overtime knocking out prosthetic Penis’s!
95 When Martin Day and you start posting your usual crap most of us start playing solitaire .
@100:
Funny, cause when you start posting your usual crap, I start carving PLEASE GOD LET ME DIE into my wrists with razor blades.
re 91. I think that you only get lots of polls when those who commission them - the media - think that there is change in the air. At the moment opinion appears to be static so what will a new poll add.
We should be getting the July Populus survey on Monday evening.
100: LOL SPANNER
101 LOL perhaps slight over reaction?!
80 Tim Robbins of course also played Bob Roberts - one of my favourite American politicians - all claims that this was a fictional character and an excellent satire on redneck politics are nonsense.
@103:
‘I think that you only get lots of polls when those who commission them - the media - think that there is change in the air.’
I’m not sure that’s entirely true. I think the media commission polls when they expect them to play into their ongoing media narrative.
The narrative of Brown’s evisceration by pretty boy Dave is likely to be executed in fits and starts until conference season.
With regard to the polls - you are right Mike, the story is unlikely to be different. To those who do not micro-watch every development politics is the same as it was last month. It is only us middle aged boffins who notice such interesting developments in who’s being sh*gging X or getting money from y or who is employing nannies!
102 After Thursday’s byelection in Burgess Hill a one horse graph is enough - Conservatives losing it there
103 thanks Mike. Pity. I do like lots of polls.
@109:
I heard that rumour.
108 all about the little unimportant local elections!
Mark try this CON GAIN LEWES 2010.
108.
You cannot win them all Mark! However you slaint the swing statistics!
Only joking earlier about the PP’s!
I declare self interest but it seeems a pretty cool name to me !
111 Put your money down then . Try Fatty Soames loses Mid Sussex
@111:
all about the little unimportant local elections!
Umm. He’s a Lib Dem! What else has he got to wank on about?
111. Con Gain Sheffield Hallam in 2010!
114 HAHAHA is that Mr Soames 20,000 maj minimum there?
Soames’ majority will be bigger than all LD majorities combined in England!!!!!!
@114:
I’m saving my money, to buy the 2010 Lib Dem parliamentary party the taxi for having their group meetings in.
116 yes we know this - what about Con win cornwall 6-0?!
99
Is Mark Senior in Portugal then???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080704/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_portugal_ceramic_penis;_ylt=A0WTcVub6W9I5_cAzRDtiBIF
@119:
CON GAIN THE UNITED KINGDOM.
Surely the only result that matters?
Will leave you Conservative loonies to chat amongst yourselves
103 - ahhhh I see, I was however being slightly playful - what I meant was that the public desire a new type of stick with which to commence whoop-assery. However, a knocked-in version of the old stick on Monday will suffice.
Anything which displays the loathing in which the Labour Party is held is welcome - these people need to know they are despised for what they have done. I think the time has come for them to start taking the blame for all those things they got away with when the Tories couldn’t be bothered to oppose properly - Foot and Mouth 01 vintage, Gordon Brown’s inane economic policy for myopic beginners, that sort of thing.
Con Gain the fetid remains of Labour’s soul
122 hehe don’t blame you - see you soon Mark!
Lewis its the CofE’s fault says Boris.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4276484.ece
what happened to Timothy (likes zebras)?
122. Sorry Mark! You are unfortunate in that you get it in the neck when others are worse than you on balance!
126. One stampeded him to death!
@122:
I shall choose to interpret this as a surrender by Mark Senior in the face of Ave It and my inherent moral superiority.
Martin Day doesn’t count, (a) because he’s not a Tory and (b) because he’s deranged.
@126:
He was cuckolded by a Zebra, and now he thinks all zebras are twarts.
This is useful:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/spectrum.xpd
129. Indeed, It was working for the Tories that did it! Nevermind, there day will come for retribution………..
Now that Mark Senior has gone out trolling for faintly degrading human contact, I’m left with a tremendous sense of emptiness and forboding.
Maybe it was that pastie I had for tea.
My personal view of the next election is the Tories will fail to win an overall majority. That may seem odd to many people on here but believe me, my view is coloured by experience on the ground in Tory HQ.
In 2001 the tories only had 70 target seats. I am pretty sure that in 2005, they would have had about the same. I do not believe they have expanded their operation further - so it must be 70 again next time round. This must mean that the tories are only looking for between 284 & 300 seats tops. Logistically it is hard for a party to go beyond a certain number of seats due to cost and personnel.
The polls are not going to stay as good for the Tories and there will be a significant Narrowing in the polls - I will probably vote Tory but could easily change my mind.
Mike are you hearing whether any of the media are planning to commission a Glasgow East poll? Would be interesting to see the relative percentages.
As it looks as though Margaret Curran has agreed to be the sacrificial “lamb” for Labour we can see the SNP bringing the LAbour Holyrood Leadership issue into the by-election.Given that we saw a 5.5% swing in Baillieston last year from Labour to SNP, it does give the SNP a platform to attack Mrs Curran on. I see John Mason got over 3,000 first preference votes in the Glasgow Baillieston council ward in 2007. That is almost the size of Margaret Curran’s majority but more importantly since any candidate achieving 7,000-10,000 is likely to win the election, he has a good base from which to build if the SNP can get them all voting.
134 you are one of the great posters here but i must disagree with you - i think con will gain an overall majority
135 yes SNP have won Glasgow E but Lab will get it back 2010
Ave It 1979 How about Tim wins everywhere!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOL!
I am very dubious though about the number of Tims associated with M Thatcher, eg Tim Bell - were they in the “Nice but Dim” category?
Tim the Enchanter (’Monty Python and the Holy Grail’)?
135 - actually her seat is abolished under the new Scottish Parliament boundaries so it might be a way of trying to find a seat.
this is interesting
http://tartanhero.blogspot.com/2008/07/labour-candidate-meltdown-in-glasgow.html
134
I don’t think there will be a significant narrowing of the polls - for that people would need to take stock of the situation and conclude ‘we are better off with Labour’ - why would anyone come to this conclusion when Labour have no vision, a cretin as leader, a group of cretins in the cabinet waiting for something they know not what, a record of incompetence and a ruinous economy that is in no small part their own doing. Unless the electorate are worried en masse about imaginary long-term decisions then I see no movement of note toward Labour until they are out of power.
The next move is to the Lib Dems from Labour nationally and the evaporation of the Scottsh Labour myth - they will lose Glasgow East and have no personality to replace the already poor Bendy Wendy - Socttish Labour is ready for felling, the South is now a guaranteed Labour-free zone, Wales is problematic for them becuase of independents….. its all over for them, sit back and enjoy the show, unless you are a Labour Party member the next few years are going to be hysterically funny.
136. Maybe i am just being realistic from how electoral operations work. It may well be the case things have changed and my assesment is invalid, however my gut feeling is the tories will have 70 target seats and anything beyond that will be due to national momentum. Technology deletes the need for some of the boring and tedious tasks of old in targeting. Ashcroft has also rationised the way the tories work and he is provern at examining hw businesses work to get maximum return! Shame he did not do the electoral stuff 8 years ago and not just the fund raising! The Tories might be in a lot better electoral position!
If the polls stay as they are then the tories will walk it, no doubt about it. Cameron is very good PM material and the tory party would in all likelyhood move to his “electorally popular” positions. My view is coloured by what i have seen - my view comes with a health warning in that i have not seen the tory operation for so many years!
141 ok but I still think Con will win overall maj
PS Con gain Sheffield Hallam!!!!
Oh dear. Where is Hazel Blears when the wheels are coming off….the Labour Party?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1032385/Labour-MP-spent-500-000-taxpayers-money-running-office-home-staffed-wife.html
Small wonder no one wanted to succeed Mr Marshall.
142. Yes! Maybe i was just meating out some shit to Coxall! Don’t like being called deranged! Tis why i did not become a politician - very thin skin and i would end up kicking the shit out of detractors!
Cons will win overall majority! Plus Sheffield Hallam and LD’s will be in a taxi and Labour in a Coach! (Parliamentry parties!)
Nick Clegg still reminds me of Neil Kinnock!
144 you are only allowed to say that once a day! But its tomorrow in 30 mins!
144. Nick Palmer will be re-elected due to his electoral guru Martin Day (Aka ******** *****) - Nick will then become leader of the labour party and gobble up the LD’s!!!!
@144:
I apologise. For anyone who’s watching, MARTIN DAY IS 100% RANGED.
Some people questioned why the Tories would mount a vigorous campaign in Glasgow East. Apart from the national party needs to fight in every corner of the country etc I had a look at the detail of the Glasgow City Council elections in 2007.
On the face of them, with the Tories winning only 1 seat in 1 ward it seemds a fairly pointless exercise. However there are 5 wards in which the Tory candidate appears to have been the next candidate after those elected and interestingly one of those wards in which the Tory was “runner up” was Glasgow Shettleston ward, albeit a long way behind the least successful elected councillor. However it is in wards like this that the Tories must start their fightback.
145. Yes - I have been drinking though! I did a search on the subjects and it kept coming up! I must be enemy no.1 to many LD’s!
Not to worry - people always thought i would be like Neil Kinnock as a politician!
By the way would anyone else like to Sh*g sophie Long off BBC news 24? She is a babe!
147. It’s alright - been boozing! WIll go for some cigars from pub before it closes!
I wondered why Ladbrokes are offering odds on Nick P becoming the next Labour leader!! Maybe now I know
148 Con in with a chance of going top 2 in glasgow east!!!!!
LOL I know this has been here before but:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d4-NqdI27Q#
All about the Labour East Midlands meltdown!!!!!!!!!!!!
143 - is the cost of living in Newton Mearns that expensive?
Just switched on Radio 4 - IDS talking about Glasgow East.
Ave it, sadly that would just be a silly prediction. I believe it will be SNP 8,000, Lab 6,500, Tory 1,500 LibDem 1,000 or something like that.
156 perhaps - good to see con breaking the top 3 though!
Has anybody mentioned Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-bus-stop-F’Tang-F’Tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel yet?
158. Why? he’s not standing anywhere else, is he?
[Crosby by-election, 1981]
If “24 hour licensing” had truly worked then surely some of those here would surely be in the pub at the moment, rather than writing drunken drivel here. I beg the government to admit it has struggled with its targets on 24 hr licencing. I suggest a somewhat harder target to be introduced - perhaps 48 hr licensing? Should keep a few of the shallower ya-boo(z)ers away from here.
Martin Day - fancy a bet - on anything at all? I bet you a tenner you can’t go a whole month without mentioning the words “Clegg”, “Hallam”, “Sheffield” or “Kinnock”. I don’t care if I lose; your avoidance of those words will be worth the price.
G’nite.
151. Nick can always employ me as a Nanny!
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
162 - tenner says Huhne holds.
Cheapest beer around here!
163 i am nice and won’t take your money. Huhne = bye bye bye
164 LDs will be merging with greens soon to form ‘the small party’!!
At this time i could not commit to a tenner!
Would feed me for a while plus saturday night cans!
Will it be LDs no seats in Wales 2010?
167 - Martin, you don’t get it. The bet meant I will give you a tenner if you forgo those four words for a month.
Bet withdrawn. I’ll give a tenner to charity instead and just scroll past your posts!
Never mind, once i am earning again betting will be made i am sure!
Have to be careful as i don’t know how long unemployment will last!
169. oh well!
169 ‘I’ll give a tenner to charity instead’ - is that LD henley campaign? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
169. I will try not to but it is hard to say never!
You are one of the more tolerant LD’s and i do not want to offend!
Time for bed.
I look forward to more stimulating meaningful political debate tomorrow
GN
173 - Martin, good luck with the ongoing search. I started as a qualified teacher this week. All good. So far. G’nite- and I mean it this time.
175 good luck being a teacher!
GN all!!
174. Night-night!
sunday papers are on line now - well the times is anyway!
175. Great! I am sure you will be a good teacher! Good night - hope the bed bugs don’t bite!!!
This is an interesting story in the times - I had not realised the government had stopped stock-pilling food.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4276490.ece
In my opinion - this is a bad move as we are still at risk of nuclear war - how would the survivers continue? Even if it is only a few million? I can understand why they have done this but too much is better than too little if the worst happens. What if a large metor hit? Or some other contingiency that nobody expected? We need to be able to continue life what ever may hit us! Not a political point but one of national security!
This process probably began under the tories by the way in the early 1990’s. If they had stores now maybe they could depress the food markets at the least in this country?
If the phone rings at 3 a.m. it will be Gordon Brown
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews?articleid=4260630
From The Independent’s web site
“Almost 50 MPs have refused to tell the parliamentary authorities exactly what their office staff do and how much they are paid from public funds, it emerged yesterday.
One in 13 MPs have failed to meet their obligation to submit copies of their employees’ contracts of employment, which detail their working hours and salary scales.
The failure to provide the details means that the House of Commons authorities have no idea whether the MPs are using their £90,000 staffing allowance properly – or if they are paying family members for work they have not done.
The Members Estimate Committee, which is charged with policing the use of parliamentary allowances, is now expected to demand that all MPs submit full details of their office spending before the start of the next session, in October. “We are supposed to be moving towards transparency, but these people still want to keep things under wraps,” one member of the committee said yesterday.”
181. That is why all MP’s are under the hammer - this is where the LD’s could do very well depending on whether there are LD’s who are working the system. If they are not employing family - this could be an issue thet saves LD’s from a Tory / Labour squeese. If they call it wrong they will be culled!
I still doubt Obama winning this year, people are racist and i think the polls are reding it wrong in the states that matter. My feeling is that that the republican will win the presidency but the H of R and the senate will swing heavily to the democrats. I have never been to the states but this is my view.
Had a look at the 153 link that Ave It posted as he said it was about Labour East Midlands. It’s IMO a rather awful thing, relating to an earlier thread, about the way the current climate puts people off politics. Here’s someone who *used* to be an MP, years ago, having what to my eye looks like an episode of a nervous breakdown - I don’t think that’s just drink. Someone thought it was so funny that they’ve put it up on YouTube so the whole world can have a laugh. Yuck. What next, epileptic fits on video?
I don’t have any personal stake in this - I doubt if I spoke to her more than a handful of times when she was in the Commons, and I’ve lost track of which party she currently belongs to. But it seems genuinely wrong to me that it’s up there.
Good grief. looking at the news and salmond being on it compared to labour problems, the SNP could well win! That would be interesting because the SNP would be on a march in scotland after a win. The tories in England may well be on to a similar victory in England. Labour look likely to suffer a 1997 defeat via different parties!
But if i am NP’s electoral agent, we will save his seat!
184. Nonsense!
Yes who does not get pissed!
She is not an MP - So who cares?
It’s crap showing stuff like this, I think a couple of days after 2005GE she said she was going over to the tories but she was still pro-WIlson govt from the 1970’s? Embarrassing for Labour but a load of pointless boll*cks! Hardly a Blair babe! Good grief - I am surprised she lasted two terms! The guy who took over is much better, even if he occasionally posts on here!!!!
184. Nick on a serious point - Do you think as a nation we should stack up on food suplies? In this i mean just in case of war or other unforseen circumstances? If we still had a stock pile of food maybe it could be released to minimise food poverty?
Not a political point particularly, but asking you as a member of govt. who is intellegent enough to know what is going on in the real world!
Yes, it’s from the Guardian but
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/06/boris.london1
Interesting comments from Martin Day about the number of seats the Tories have the resources to target limiting their potential upside. But against that, doesn’t the number of seats Labour have the resources to defend mean that this kind of thing come out as a wash? I’d been imaging that the Tories would spend resources attacking a bunch of seats, and Labour would spend resources defending the same seats, resulting in the seats in question ending up just following the national swing, as it would if both Labour and the Tories had made a mutual pact not to bother.
Does gaining a seat require more resources than defending one?
Obama/Mccain
‘Despite poll data that seem to forecast a big Democratic win, most analysts privately expect another close race.’
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080705_5728.php
Sunday Herald notes Curran was Labour’s 4th choice.
But how about ths for cheek, Labour accuse BBC Scotland of SNP bias, must come as a shock to Wark and others.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2381324.0.labour_accuse_bbc_scotland_of_prosnp_bias.php
70. Witan
These links may interest you.
http://tinyurl.com/5lanlz
http://tinyurl.com/5q66g7
Fatal to put anything on now - I feel a new thread coming.
But suggestion on Radio 4 news by a former Scottish Labour Party Director of Communications that if Labour lose Glasgow East then Brown must go.
I think perhaps the Lib Dems and Conservative should model their campaigns on Henley - the Labour Party Henley campaign that is!
159. He’s going to be VP innit
Tim Berners-Lee invented the web, not the internet.
153. It took me a while to work out who “Helen Clark MP” is/was (apart from the PM of NZ) because no such name is listed in the TG to the H of C. She used to be Helen Brinton MP. Is that enough acronyms?
I predict
SNP 8,900
Lab 8,100
LD. 1,300
Con 1,000
Solid 400
SSP.. 300
Chr.. 200
Other 100
Timothy Gowers won a Fields Medal (a sort of Nobel Prize for mathematicians) in 1988.
So if you are right John will Brown actually go?
The original Brown was prepared to defy conventions - not wearing tails to the mansion house for example. Today’s Gordon wont go to help in by-election that might end his premiership “because it is the convention that Prime Ministers don’t go to by-elections”.
Bring back the old Gordon Brown or get rid of him!
New thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
199. No. Labour may be desperate but they know that nobody would be any better.
“given its comparitive popularity, very few Tims (including Henman) have ever achieved greatness”
What about the sorcerer in Monty Python and the Holy Grail?!