Sunday papers round-up
July 27th, 2008
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Grim reading for Gordon today - is the endgame finally approaching?
The newspapers are dominated by moves to unseat the Prime Minister - with the battle lines for the succession being drawn up between Jack Straw’s “Lancashire Mafia” and the Miliband/Burnham/Purnell “Primrose Hill Pact”.
The Independent reports that Andy Burnham and James Purnell, in echoes of the Granita deal, will give David Miliband a free run for the leadership in the event of a contest, allowing him to emerge as the clear Blairite challenger. The article continues: “It is almost certain that in September, unless there is a dramatic improvement in Labour’s position, Mr Brown will face a public challenge or be told to go quietly by men in grey suits.” John Rentoul says that it is “when, not if” for the PM now.
Meanwhile, the Sunday Times concentrates on the efforts to elevate Jack Straw to the leadership, with reports that the left are coalescing around him, and that a “Lancashire mafia” “have met colleagues in the Commons tea room to ask if they would support him as a “save the party” leader. They have also been calling colleagues to prepare the ground for a possible autumn coup.” The paper also reports George Howarth as collecting names for Straw: “[Howarth] said Jack was ready to tell Gordon the game was up, if there was enough support.”
Straw meanwhile has said that he is “absolutely convinced” that Brown remains the right man to lead Labour. There’s further bad news for Labour in the shape of a CrosbyTextor poll showing a 24-point lead for the Tories in marginals, while the Observer editorial calls on the PM to reflect on his future and Andrew Rawnsley says that the “earth has moved” under the PM in the wake of Glasgow East.
The end of Obama’s whirlwind foreign tour with his visit to London, and its juxtaposition to UK domestic politics, has also been highlighted, with the candidate noting that “you’re always more popular before you’re actually in charge of things - once you’re responsible, you’re going to make some people unhappy.” Reports on the visit from the Independent, Sunday Times, and Sunday Telegraph, including the news of Cameron’s gift to Obama of a box of CDs by the Tory leader’s favourite UK artists.
Double Carpet
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And from Andrew Rawnsley’s devastating piece in the Observer:
“The Prime Minister’s speech failed to offer solace or uplift to that anguished soul. He could not rouse and rally them because he could not be truthful with his audience about the depth of his own unpopularity and the severity of Labour’s predicament. He dealt with this latest disaster by trying to pretend that it simply hadn’t happened. One member of the cabinet says this is typical of a Prime Minister who is ‘in denial’ about both the scale of the calamity facing Labour and the precariousness of his own position. Instead of facing up to the scale of the challenge, Mr Brown offered the usual litany of statistics about tractor production in the Ukraine. As a result, according to one senior Labour figure who heard the speech with despair, ‘he sent them away more depressed than when they arrived’.”
http://tinyurl.com/54sbtt
I’m actually starting to believe that they might do it. I still think that it is slightly more likely that no-one will have the guts. But it’s certainly getting interesting now.
So Gordon might join the “Prime Ministers who never faced an election club.” Excluding those that died in office, how many others would be with him in said club?
I presume that Labour assume the new Prime Minister will be allowed to carry on till 2010? If so then they’re more out of touch than I thought
1 - that will be why they gave him a standing ovation?
3 - “I presume that Labour assume the new Prime Minister will be allowed to carry on till 2010? If so then they’re more out of touch than I thought” - Er, “allowed”? You envisage a military coup?
As someone who’s I think never been mistaken in my PLP predictions here, I really recomend taking this stuff with a large pinch of salt if you’re betting on it. As I’ve said before, if, unlike me, you think that a leadership change would be a good idea, why would you time it for the middle of an economic storm, so the new leader gets the blame for any consequences?
now we can Just hope for a battle between the Centralist Blairites under Miliband and the left wing of Labour under Straw, and we can all sit and watch the party tear itself apart
Nick - Please!!! - What else could they do in front of the press. They give George Bush a standing ovation at joint sessions of Congress!
Betfair have a Next PM market hidden away under Cabinet Specials but with Cameron and a list of the Labour hopefuls -nicely combines whether there will be an election and whether the Labour Party will stage a coup.
(Only £2,835 traded so far however)
4 - I seem to recall that Nikita Khrushchev always got standing ovations to his speeches as well.
4. even IDS was getting standing ovations from the party at the end of his time as leader, means nothing.
The Cons have moved further upwards on the commons seats spread markets, buyable now with Sporting at 350. Still somewhere in the 45-seat majority area, but moving towards likely reality now.
I’m still reeling from the Glasgow result, which I called badly wrong. But the lesson for me is that I underestimated just how unpopular Labour are now. Everything points to a big Con majority (probably 80 to 90 seats) in 2010 (or before??) so there is still value in the markets.
4 - standing ovation?
Are you suggesting the Sunday Times reporters are lying? Were you there?
“In better days, a Brown speech to the Labour faithful might have been punctured by a dozen standing ovations. This half-hour address received just one ripple of applause before the end. And that was only after Tom Watson, a burly Cabinet Office minister, stood up and ostentatiously began clapping, forcing the rest to follow.”
Stretching their legs, no doubt, after a mind numbing lecture on tractor statistics from the Ukraine?
‘Labour considers ’suicide’ election’
“One Labour MP is reported as claiming that backbencher George Howarth had told him Straw was “ready to tell Gordon that the game was up” so long as he had enough backing.
One minister said: “The worst case scenario for the Labour Party is that we carry on with Gordon as leader and then have an election at the time of his choosing. If we got rid of him and went for an immediate option, that would still be a better result for us than waiting for him. There is no one in the Labour Party who is capable of running the party worse than him.”
Last night, one Government source opposed to Brown said: “The Cabinet now has to do something. What is Alistair Darling going to do and what is Jack Straw going to do? We have to get rid of him. There is no support for him staying.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/Labour-considers-39suicide39-election.4329065.jp
No no, keep him, keep him!
(drat…)
Gordon’s answer of “I’m getting on with the job”, apart from not really offering any positive message (imagine being a Labour canvasser and being asked what your party is doing for the electorate; ‘well, the PM’s getting on with the job’ is hardly an adequate answer), he seems to be missing the point that no small part of Labour’s current woes are down to the way he has been doing the job. Quite why he expects supporters to be reassured by an effective answer to the question of how he is going to address his party’s unpopularity of “I’m going to keep on doing exactly what I’ve done in my first year” I find difficult to fathom. In any case, that answer also runs entirely counter to the “I’m listening” assertion.
Up until very recently, I didn’t think that there would be a challenge to Brown. I’m now very much undecided. The main reasons I thought there wouldn’t be were:
- It would cost too much
- It would take too long
- There would be no guarantee of a better leader at the end
- Ministers campaigning against each other will paralyse government for two months
- It won’t resolve the fundamental concerns about the economy
- There is unlikely to be any big policy change given the likely contenders.
I’m not sure that these all hold now. Glasgow East may well have shifted the default position from ‘it could make things worse’ to ‘there’s probably nothing to lose’. Taking the above concerns in order:
- An election will be expensive, and Labour has little money, but the unions will chip in if they get their way in Warwick, and those policies will help to sure up the Labour vote. It would probably guarantee a Tory victory in 2010 but it will also ensure that Labour does have a future. There may even be other funding streams, such as a strong suggestion of voluntary donations when voting (uncomfortable echoes of a poll tax, but it might be worth a go).
- An Autumn election will mean that nothing of substance will be achieved in terms of legislation before Christmas, but is that really a drawback? There will still be 16 months or so before an election is necessary and what exactly would be lost? The last year is hardly a ringing endorsement for the alternative.
- Ministers competing against each other is not ideal, but the same points apply. The main question is whether they can then pull together after the new leader is elected.
- Keeping Brown in place won’t particularly address the issues of the economy either, and he carries the can for a good many of the problems (inadequate FSA regulation leading to the Northern Rock crisis, the state of the public finances etc). It’s unlikely that changing leaders would make things worse on that score.
- We’ll have to wait and see on the policy front. At least a leadership contest might produce some useful ideas.
That still leaves the questions of whether Labour has the guts to depose their leader, if so, how, and who should replace him. Conference will surely be critical in this; that will be an ideal time to assess strengths and weaknesses.
Labour has no tradition of booting out unsuccessful leaders and there are strong cultural impulses to refrain from that kind of action. Were a Tory leader in the same position as Brown, he or she would almost certainly be out by Christmas. I still think it’s fractionally odds-against that he’ll go this year due to a lack of adequate alternatives. Would Straw (bad speaker), Miliband (geeky), Harman (patronising) or Johnson (seems to lack support) really be better? There are enormous dangers in getting that choice wrong, but it’s getting to the stage where they’re no longer any bigger than the risks of keeping GB in place.
#4
Jack Straw has stated in the MSM that any new Labour leader would have to call an early general election. Maybe you should stop assuming that the MSM will always tow the party-line.
#7
I believe the Romanian Communist Party and media portrayed Ceauşescu being applauded following his last speech in 1989. Reality and history says otherwise.
It cannot be long before ministers names start to be linked to the unrest.
As to the Nick P post it simply beggars belief. “Crisis, what crisis”.
Hint Nick, the crisis is that 200 of your colleagues jobs are at risk.
4 - The point in your last paragraph is your best point. However, I don’t buy it as a reason not to act.
If Labour MPs were to conclude that Gordon Brown is no longer remotely credible as a Prime Minister (which is harsh but currently a reasonable conclusion to draw), the time to act is now. You can’t treat the current incumbent like a scapegoat once the bad times have been endured, sending him out into the desert with all the Labour party’s sins - the public would a) see through that in an instant and b) blame Labour politicians for not having the guts to act earlier.
That said, you may well be right about the mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party, you are much closer to it than the rest of us. That doesn’t mean that it is right to have the mood that you ascribe to it.
‘Ministers court Kinnock to persuade Brown to resign’
“One junior minister said: “We are asking Neil to do what senior members of the cabinet are obviously too scared to do, and that is to confront Gordon with the hard reality of where we’re at now. We cannot have him march us to certain defeat at the next general election.”
One MP said: “It is no longer a question of whether Gordon is the right person to lead the Labour Party. The discussion is about the strategy that would encourage him to go with some dignity, or if necessary, to minimise the damage that would be caused if we had to resort to pushing him out. But the pretence of everything being business as usual’ has to stop.”
… some MPs are forecasting a steady stream of autumn and winter resignations by junior ministers who will openly say they are no longer prepared to serve in a government led by Brown. One experienced minister said: “That is the messy option and it will damage any chance we have of limiting the scale of the coming defeat.”"
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2410436.0.0.php
4. “3 - “I presume that Labour assume the new Prime Minister will be allowed to carry on till 2010? If so then they’re more out of touch than I thought” - Er, “allowed”? You envisage a military coup?”
Dissolutions of parliament remain the prerogative of HM, so it wouldn’t need a military coup (though of course, she is head of the armed forces as well). Just a technicality, but worth mentioning anyway.
4. Nick, having read around the papers, it seems discussions are being had at ministerial level so maybe they have not yet filtered down to the mass of the PLP.
I cannot understand your loyalty to Brown. If you don’t want a new leader, the obvious question is why not?
You’ve had your lunch handed to you in three successive sets of local elections, in London, in Crewe & Nantwich, and in Glasgow East, and you are twenty points behind in the opinion polls.
Why on earth do you not want a new leader?
I suppose you agree that a new leader would require a GE and the end of your time in Parliament, because I can’t see a single other logical reason for “steady as she goes” in the face of electoral disaster.
John Smith House speaks, via today’s editorial in their in-house mouthpiece the Sunday Mail, but are ‘London Labour’ (ie. Brown, Darling, Browne, Alexander, Cairns, Murphy et al) listening?
“Labour in Scotland are paying the price for too many years of smug complacency and too many years of doffing their caps to London on support for Iraq and Trident, policies abhorrent to most Scots.
While Alex Salmond put his head above the parapet and fought for every vote on the streets, Gordon Brown stayed away and his Cabinet stayed low profile. On the ground the SNP were better organised and motivated. Unlike previous triumphs they didn’t need the charisma of a Sillars or a MacDonald but relied on smart campaigning and a hard-working local candidate in John Mason. There’s no reason why the SNP can’t repeat the formula across Scotland.
[Scottish Labour] need to grasp the nettle and choose a leader in Scotland who can rebuild lost trust and give Salmond a run for his money… A new leader must hammer home the message Labour exist to tackle inequality and injustice…not to please the London policy wonks.
Unless they do it now Glasgow East will go down as not just an earthquake. But the trigger for a political Armageddon that led to the extinction of a whole party.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/opinion/we-say/2008/07/27/listen-up-labour-78057-20672311/
Is the North Britain branch about to ditch its southern masters?
16: “That said, you may well be right about the mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party, you are much closer to it than the rest of us. That doesn’t mean that it is right to have the mood that you ascribe to it.” Sure - my post wasn’t about what I think should happen (which is not something I’d choose to discuss here) but advice to people betting on it, since this is a site with a lot of people who bet.
As for the ovation, my point was that journalists pick evidence to suit their theme. Rawnsley quotes two anonymous opinions rather than the ovation because it fits his article; if he was arguing the opposite, he’d quote the ovation and not the the opinions. That’s how journalists work.
Test, at the risk of stating the obvious, the other logical reason for someone to favour “steady as she goes” would be if they don’t think the likely alternatives would do any better.
A note on the CrosbyTextor poll
The firm is NOT a member of the British Polling Council - something that I regard as being central in judging the numbers that it produces. It has no record of polling in the UK and the Crosby part is that of Lynton Crosby - the Australian that the Tories turned to for their 2005 election campaign and to run Boris’s campaign for the mayoralty.
I have asked the firm for details of its methodology and the data
John Rentoul’s piece in the IOS, has probably got it right.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-now-it-is-when-not-if-for-mr-brown-878239.html
Fresh from my triumph, (Well everyone has to have at least one) of backing the SNP in Mike’s poll, I’m going for October for Brown’s resignation, almost a year since his disasterous decision not to call a GE: you should have listened to me GB!!
The Labour Party’s selfishness is becoming tiresome - be done with it already and lets move on, Brown is a nobody, yesterday’s failure, we have a future to worry about and plan for. Does any Labour MP really think this display of cowardice and snivelling cap-doffing false support is winning them a single vote anywhere in the UK?
Even Barack Obama is in on the fun ‘I have no advice for the dead duck’
21 - That’s fair enough and (assuming - as I do - that you are accurately reporting your perceptions) it’s appreciated. I can well understand that it would be pointless for you to discuss your views on what should happen on here because you would either a) be denounced as a party stooge or b) be choosing the quirkiest way possible to resign.
Even some previously loyal sections of the BBC are now talking as if the plot to unseat him is deadly serious and inexorable. I get the impression that, since Glasgow East, a real head of steam to ditch him is now building up behind the scenes involving figures at the highest level.
Brown may still have a job to come back to on his return from Southwold but not for much longer, perhaps?
14 Ceauşescu was in fact applauded as usual for the first part of the last speech. Then booing started….
Andrew Neil on BBC1 points out that ministers are calling up journalists saying that Brown has to go.
Does Nick P say that he is making this up?
I wrote above that 200 Labour MPs are under threat, I underestimated that number. It is nearer 250, only about 100 Labour MPs can feel safe.
A very interesting piece from Simon Jenkins on the, ‘Union.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/simon_jenkins/article4407171.ece
Agree!!
25 Browns dithering and cowardice seems to have rubbed off on his cabinet, however, I think some of ‘em may now have got the message and are preparing, nervously, to grasp the nettle before some of the derision and ridicule directed at Brown is aimed their way.
22 Edmund, but such an attitude is illogical on the face of it.
Since things are now at rock bottom for Labour a new leader could only equal Brown’s performance (ie no downside risk left) and would almost certainly get a honeymoon bouce as all new leaders do and would therefore potentially limit the damage.
28 Let’s get the firing squad ready!
29 TC on what show?
21
Nick, one can only conclude that not wanting to discuss what should happen on this site means that you think something should happen>?
“Alex Salmond last night called for Chancellor Alistair Darling to take the fall for Labour’s Glasgow East by-election disaster.
He wants to use the SNP’s newly won Westminster muscle to demand a U-turn on economic policy and action to lower taxes on fuel and energy bills.
Mr Salmond said: “The SNP is now in command of the political agenda in Scotland and the Labour party are a bunch of headless chickens who are going absolutely nowhere.”
Speaking exclusively to the Scottish Sunday Express, he added: “I think Brown may well sack Darling in the Autumn and I think he would be wise to do so. I don’t think he wants to sack himself, although it may be that others in the Labour party will do that.”
“Undoubtedly, although many people will say he’s merely Brown’s proxy, I can’t think of a worse Chancellor in British history. They say that Anthony Barber was the worst, or Norman Lamont, but I think they both had good sides. It is difficult to see any redeeming features from the tenure of the current Chancellor.
Meanwhile, Mr Salmond also revealed that an independence poll in Glasgow East showed 46 per cent were in favour of breaking up the Union, with just 28 per cent against and 26 per cent undecided, although he admitted there was still a lot to do before that vote was repeated across the country.
He said: “Unbeknown to virtually every commentator we polled the whole of Glasgow East on independence and got very, very encouraging results. The fact the independence vote was higher than SNP vote and the SNP vote was pretty high! We’ve got work to do but its very encouraging, that in what was previously regarded as a heartland area there is so much support for independence.””
http://www.scottishsundayexpress.co.uk/posts/view/54188/Darling-must-be-sacked-
19. Test: “I suppose you agree that a new leader would require a GE and the end of your time in Parliament, because I can’t see a single other logical reason for “steady as she goes” in the face of electoral disaster.”
Well, yes! That’s the reason, and the only reason, the Labour party is hesitating before chucking Brown out of the helicopter. Everything else is screaming at them: get rid of him. Do it.
But the fact is, they know they would come under enormous pressure to hold a GE pretty quickly if they dumped Gordo - pressure that, in their present state, they would be unable to resist. Moreover, if they do chuck Gordon, but still somehow hang on to power, they will look like a bunch of Maoist hoodlums ignoring the people (like they don’t already) and then the eventual drubbing they receive, from an angry electorate, will likely be even WORSE.
So they know that dumping the Tractor Guy means they would have to call a swift GE. Which they would surely lose. And Europhiles amongst them also realise this would mean the end of the Lisbon Treaty - indeed I imagine Labour are coming under some quiet pressure from Sarko, Merkel and the Bruxellois colleagues, to stay in office, whatever.
And on a sheer emotional level, let’s face it: it’s pretty hard to commit electoral seppuku by calling an election you know will lose.
However Labour MPs should, I think, wise up. The situation they are in is akin to that of a soldier with gangrene. An election now is like the necessary amputation: horrible and desolating, not least because it has to be done immediately. The temptation to think “maybe the gangrene will just go away if the doctors do nothing” is intense.
However the gangrene will not go away. Miracles won’t happen. If they wait, the gangrene spreads - and then they face outright extinction.
Heh.
What a ghastly, ghastly individual Harperson is…
How many refusals to answer the question so far is that ?
Her Michael Howard moment ?
Don’t be too hard on poor old Nick Palmer. He’s only doing his job, which seems to be to act as Browns mouthpiece on pb.com.
He’ll soon change his tune when Straw and co find their backbones and dump the Bottler. Won’t be too long now IMO
Harperson on Marr has just given the weakest defence of brown possible. she was stuttering, evasive and totally lacking in conviction (which is not something she can usually be accused of).
Her only defence of Brown was his economic prowess (no laughing at the back) was the reason to keep him!
I would say this weekend is the true turning point in Browns career… its over…..its now just how and when
There is no legal reason why the government would have to call an election after they replace Brown as PM. This lot have no shame left and could easily brazen it out for another couple of years.
A general election post-Brown is not a certainty.
‘Labour heads for meltdown over by-election’
“Activists in the East End say the party chiefs failed to show proper leadership, and the strong anti-SNP message of the campaign was hopelessly misguided.
Scottish party chiefs have blamed the chaos on campaigners brought up from England who, they say, bungled the crucial information gathering in the constituency.
One senior party figure said: “We should have focused relentlessly on the Tories. It should have been about fighting them at Westminster. Instead we got dragged into a battle against the Nationalists. Labour MSPs in particular must wake up to the fact that there is enormous goodwill to the SNP, so just attacking them is not going to help us.”
A senior SNP source said: “We could not believe they kept labelling John Mason a “hardline nationalist” – it showed that they didn’t know the electorate.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Labour-heads-for-meltdown-over.4329009.jp
40 Harriet wants his job, but she won’t get it!
40
An opinion poll showing the Tories at 50% with Labour below Michael Foot’s worst rating of 23.5% should be enough to be the tipping point. Nothing is going to happen immediately, it’ll be dither,dither,dither.
Whatever Labour do, you can be pretty sure they will, like everything else, make a mess of it.
Just saw Harriey Harperson on BBC this morning, Sitting rigid, and lying through her teeth. Personaly I dont think anyone in the labour leadership has any guts tp confront the GB, and the rest of the parliamentary party are just minnows. We, the poor suffering people will have to suffer on, methink’s. It’s going to be excrutiating.
re 40 I disagree. I thought that Harriet did very well in very difficult circumstances. What else can she say when pressed all the time to make a comment that is detrimental to her boss. This was one of her best performances.
41. No, there’s no legal reason - but you missed my point. Changing leader AGAIN without consulting the people would just look TERRIBLE.
What are we, some two-donkey Latin American despotry? When you want to change prime minister you must call an election. You can maybe get away with not doing it once (though the disaster of Brown’s premiership actually makes that questionable), you certainly can’t get away with it twice.
So that’s the point. Labour could indeed just brazen it out: switch leaders, ignore democracy, and struggle on until 2010. Legally there’s no stopping them. But they ALREADY look arrogant, out-of-touch, elitist and incompetent…. oh dear…
If they change leader, they would have to call a GE. Simple as.
Seems that the unknown factor is Johnson - if he is still in ,then Straw knows that he could not win so will try to support Brown.
DM will be the only Blairite, HH may stand but has no chance. Risky for DM as he might lose to Johnson.
Can’t see much point in bringing down GB yet - better to wait until next May with a general election in October.
There is no constitutional reason why a new PM should call a GE, (Perhaps there should be) once the monarch has accepted the person nominated by the House of Commons, that person is the PM, errrr thats it. The electorate has never had any say in who the PM should be, our vote is for an MP and that is all.
Perhaps when Scotland becomes independent, then it might be time to actually consider having a written constitution, with a proper mechanism for deciding these things.
‘After a duff campaign … a leadership contest’
“”We were out-organised by the Nationalists, that is the bottom line,” said party MP Jim Devine.
The Glasgow East campaign, say insiders, confirmed that Labour in Scotland were relying on a ever-dwindling band of core supporters to enthuse an ever-decreasing group of voters. A related problem was the fact that Labour’s door-knockers were predominantly comprised of those who are “paid to care”: MPs, MSPs, councillors, and their researchers.
The Nationalists, whatever the merits of independence, have a cause that persuades a younger generation of people to flood a constituency and chase votes.
The two campaigns were, as one Labour foot-soldier put it, “like comparing an Apple Mac with a ZX Spectrum”.
The scale of the operation was impressive: 1000 Nationalists helped out in the constituency; 40,000 doors were knocked, thrice; 60,000 phone calls were made; 560,000 leaflets were sent; and 4,000 balloons were blown.
But key to the SNP victory was the 20,000 canvass returns handed in to party headquarters by their activists and campaign helpers.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2410425.0.after_a_duff_campaign_a_leadership_contest.php
People should take more notice of what Nick P says when it relates to internal Labour party politics; there has been no shortage of posters (and indeed newspapers) claiming the party is in crisis and that a challenge is imminent, only for Nick’s analysis that the party will grimly continue on its course to hold true.
That said, I think Nick P perhaps underestimates the extent to which Labour’s unpopularity and the hostile media it now faces has changed the game. Young turks who before may have accepted defeat under Brown in 2010 now fear the scale of the rebuilding which will be required if they wait that long (and of course perceive that they may be cast in the Hague/IDS role), and old hands -not immune to panic - may now genuinely fear for the Party’s long term future if the current situation persists.
The idea that a PM can be gently removed by a tea-room consensus is pure baloney; it takes a violent act - the Howe resignation speech, for example - to precipitate the end, after which the consensus rapidly emerges as Ministers and MPs - being politicians, after all - sniff the wind and reposition themselves.
It is not hard to imagine that a senior minister could decide at some point in the next year or so that his or her best interests, the Party’s best interests and/or the country’s best interests are best served by doing something dramatic.
46 I take your point about the fact she cant say anything bad about him but she just seemed very weak in her defence. She is a good political performer normally and I saw it as a half hearted performance. Im under no illusion however which of us is the better judge of matters political so maybe i got it wrong. How did others see it?
46 Still backing Harriet, eh Mike
45 I think they’re going to go all out to ditch him this time. Even some of these gutless reptiles in the cabinet and back-benches have had enough of Browns disastrous reign and are becoming increasingly embarrassed by the growing opprobrium and ridicule their inaction is attracting from much of the media and elsewhere. A head of steam is building up this time.
3. The only PM’s in the 20th century not to win a general election were Balfour, Chamberlain, Douglas-Home and Callaghan. Of these, Balfour did not face an election as PM (though he did as leader of the opposition, and could have done as PM had he chosen to go to the country in 1905, rather than resign as PM), and Neville Chamberlain did not face one at all - though the requirements for general elections were suspended during WWII. The natural term for the 1935 parliament would have run through to late 1940, so Chamberlain may well have had to resign on health grounds before then anyway (he died in November 1940).
Before those two, the last PM who did not win an election to become prime minister, nor face one as prime minister was the Earl of Aberdeen, though he was the leader of the Peelite faction during the 1852 election, shortly before Derby’s ministry became untenable and Aberdeen became prime minister. Going back further (before the Great Reform Act), Viscount Goderich, prime minister briefly in 1827-8, is the most recent prime minister who did not fight a general election as a party leader, excluding those who resigned on health grounds, or where the normal requirements for elections was suspended.
47. As one poster says on LabourHome:
“Two leaders without a general election – the British public won’t stand for that.” Ok – what will they do to us? Swing away in our safest seats? Hammer us in local elections? Call us the nasty Party (bloody incredible!!!)? “
46
Mike,
You are probably more dispassionate than most on this site. I didn’t see HH but the comments reflect how much loathing there is for Labour. It doesn’t matter what they say, few people are prepared to believe them.
‘Top civil servant plans split from UK’
“Sir John Elvidge, the top civil servant at the Edinburgh administration, has revealed that he has begun a “substantial exercise” to examine how the 15,000-strong civil service department may become an independent organisation.
Currently, the Scottish Government is still part of the UK-wide civil service structure, unlike the Northern Irish Executive, which is an autonomous body.
Work is now under way to see how the Scottish Government can follow the Northern Irish model.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Top-civil-servant-plans-split.4328997.jp
47 I tend to disagree. The shamelessness of most of parliamentary Labour is boundless and the extreme reluctance of many of them to risk losing their places on the gravy train before 2010 may persuade them to brazen it out and carry on until the bitter end.
However, lets get rid of Brown first then see what happens next
53. Perhaps I get despondant to readily. But I really cant see any Labour uprising on the immeduiate horizon.
46 - Mike, I agree. It takes some courage to do the rounds on a morning like this, and Harriet stood up to the questioning pretty well.
test@32: Rock bottom? No downside left? Things could get plenty worse for Labour - especially if the housing market tanks and more banks start failing. Electorally, a reputation for being fractious and divided would be even worse than their current reputation for being generally crap.
52 Harriet “seemed weak in her defence” of Brown because she DOESN’T WANT to defend him. She may try to give the appearance of loyalty but in essence she just wants him out so she can exercise her terrifying ambition to become top dog (or should that be bitch?)
If labour change leader it can only be because they want to get out early leaving the tories to deal with the current situation.
Why? If there was a third PM in the same parliament then the electorate would punish labour severely if there was no election pretty much immediately. Not having been given a chance to vote on Brown has helped to hurt labour’s support, doing that for another leader would just make the situation worse.
As such, the only gain for a new leader is to get as many of their people as they can out of the burning building, getting them to stay in the building for a couple more years isn’t a viable option.
44. With YouGov coming up this week, that 50%-22% Tory to Labour poll could happen sooner than you think.
I’ve got to say I’m loving the papers this morning. I’m enjoying Labour’s misery and misfortune. Its giving me a right laugh seeing the lefties suffer (Ms Toynbees handwringing piece yesterday was a wonderful laugh
) As the saying goes; what goes around, comes around. And for all the wrong Labour have done while in office, they have a lot to atone for. And of course, Brown has brought all of this on himself, by being such a cold, calculating, manipulative bully. The irony and pathos of his and Labours fall from grace is outstanding!
One of the downsides to Labour having a leadership election is their electoral college system. If there are, say, four leading contenders then the chances are no one will win an outright majority on the first count, and different candidates will ‘win’ different sections.
Remember if there’s one thing voters like less than an incompetent party, it’s a divided one.
Is there a chance the role of ‘Deputy Prime Minister’ could be re-instated and the leading contenders pair off into two opposing ‘dream tickets’ so there is a clear-cut choice for the members/unions/MPs to make?
This extract from the Comres poll, should be exercising the minds of Labour MP’s this AM.
The ComRes poll in The Independent yesterday asked people whether, “generally speaking”, they think of themselves as Conservative, Labour or whatever. Although the Tories had a record 22-point lead when people were asked how they would vote in a general election, when it came to the question of with which party they identify, the Tories were a mere three points ahead. There has been, therefore, no fundamental turn away from Labour.
Last week’s survey by Ipsos MORI describes the party’s problem in more detail. It found that 21 per cent of the electorate are anti-Brown Labourites, who said: “I do not like Gordon Brown but I like the Labour Party.” Half of them intend to vote Labour anyway, but the other half are the key target group: the 10 per cent or so of voters who are sympathetic to Labour, do not like its leader and currently intend to put their cross elsewhere.
Iain Macwhirter is always excellent value for money:
“Labour’s 50 year relationship with the Scottish voter is finally over. It’s time to move on.
… don’t think it couldn’t happen: The Scottish Conservatives remain the only party ever to have won a majority of votes and a majority of seats in a Scottish election, back in 1955. Yet in the 1997 general election they were wiped out in Scotland. When Scotland changes party it doesn’t mess about.
… to everyone’s credit, Glasgow East was a good clean fight between able candidates, conducted without rancour, cynicism or dirty tricks. It was real honest street democracy. John Mason and Margaret Curran fought vote by vote, tenement stair by tenement stair, and while the margin of victory may have been small - only 365 votes - this was a great moral victory for the Nationalists in the true sense of the word. The SNP fought a classic Labour campaign in Glasgow East, as the people’s party against the establishment.
The bogey of separatism is no longer enough to frighten them into the arms of Labour. The warnings about Scotland’s subsidies being cut off don’t work any more thanks to the oil price. The blindingly obvious reality is that, oil aside, London doesn’t give a damn about Scotland.
Labour’s abandonment of social democracy in England makes it a loser in Scotland. Metropolitan political commentators up in Glasgow last week just couldn’t grasp that Scotland really is different as they looked in vain for a Tory revival. And despite reports, there wasn’t one.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2410418.0.after_the_earthquake.php
59 I’m clearly in a minority here, but my intuition tells me that something serious is going on behind the scenes this time and that, finally, there is a real determination among some influential Labour figures that Brown has to go and as soon as possible.
re 51. I stopped taking Nick’s word as gospel on internal Labour matters when he rubbished my prediction last June that Harriet Harman would win the Deputy leadership. Nick did not even put her in the top two.
This idea that she was weak this morning is rubbish. Her role is like the poker player whose best hand is a single Jack. She played it very well.
I should add that it was not just Nick who rubbished my 9-1 call on HH last year but just about everybody who contributed to the discussion.
Harriet would be a tough opponent for Cameron.
63. I might actually be four PM’s in one Parliament, because if Brown goes off in a strop as soon as he’s toppeled (and that would be in character, wouldn’t it?) Labour would have to have an acting leader/PM, while the leadership election is going on. Four PM’s in one Parliament (only one elected by the people) would Labour dare?
I agree though, on electing the new leader, Labour would HAVE to concede to public opinion and hold an election almost immediatly - An election they would lose, meaning the new leader would go down as one of the shortest lived PM’s in British history. Which politician would want that on his/her CV?
55 - A revealing labourhome post there, they must think they can avoid the electorate in perpetuity. I can’t believe that most government supporters are that blind though (see my previous post which sets out the only realistic option).
What is this clown Professor Anthony King up to now? What is it with this guy?
His “analysis” on page six of yesterday’s Telegraph really isn’t an “analysis” of anything at all - an intelligent budgerigar could have said this. A lot of it isn’t even about Glasgow East.
The penultimate paragraph is particularly poorly-written, even if the gist is clear enough: “…the triumph [of the SNP] is not a perculiarly Scottish phenomenon.” Well, yes, I can just picture it now…hordes of voters in his “Welsh vallies” lining up outside polling booths in 2010 proclaiming support for….Alex Salmond!
70
It might only be 3 ,the acting PM might become PM.. Posession is 9/10ths of the law.
4, how many standing ovations did IDS get when he ‘turned up the volume’?
This is like Northern Rock. Either take action (nationalise/assassinate Brown) quickly or not at all. They have been talking of plots, coups, factions etc for months now. Neil was right on the Andrew Marr Show, the Tories would have done it long ago.
Labour either need to line up in disciplined fashion or get on with it. If they get rid of Brown later it will be worse for them.
66 - There are two labours now, given the last ten years, they can’t both have the same party, as such party identification is meaningless.
55. Yes, but that rather defeats the point, dunnit? You change leader so as to renew your popularity (as much as it can be renewed), but then you do the one thing guaranteed to make that renewal pointless and ineffective - you hang on to power, reinforcing the image that you are corrupt, elitist dung-beetles, interested only in your fat salary.
This ensures that your new leader looks awful and “more of the same”, and that your eventual defeat is just as bad as it would have been under Brown, indeed maybe worse.
Clever, not.
59. I agree, partly. I think this clamour for Brown to Go will fade over August. Holidays cheer people up. We’ll see a couple of slightly better polls for Labour as rich clever sexy rightwing voters fly to Sicily. The mood will lighten, a tad.
But “September kills me with its sadness” as Byron said. When the leaves start falling and everybody’s facing up to winter and house prices are still dropping and the comrades are all in Brighton listening to yet another dreaful Brown speech about Endogenous Widgets - that’s when the stilleto blades might flash.
I think its now evens, at least, that he’ll be gone by Xmas.
21 - Nick P - “As for the ovation, my point was that journalists pick evidence to suit their theme. Rawnsley quotes two anonymous opinions rather than the ovation because it fits his article”
Who said anything about Rawnsley - the description of the Warwick debacle was by Jonathan Oliver, additional reporting by Roland White, and opened “It may have been only a momentary loss of balance, but Gordon Brown’s stumble as he approached the stage seemed to sum up his enfeebled premiership: even putting one foot in front of the other is now fraught with risk.”
I repeat the question you avoided - are they lying?
I disagree with the thinking that a second change of PM this parliament would necessitate an immediate general election, though it might well be the best option for Labour.
On a constitutional point, it was Labour that won the 2005 general election, not Tony Blair or Gordon Brown. There would only be a moral case for Labour requiring a renewed mandate if the new PM wanted to chart a course different from that on which Labour was elected (the Baldwin 1923 precedent).
As far as public opinion goes, I don’t think they will be that concerned by a second change. Apart from anything else, a great many will be quite happy to see the back of Brown (though of course that does depend on who replaces him; Ed Balls’ election may not provoke spontaneous street parties). Of those that do take a dim view, probably most are already hostile to Labour.
Good Morning Campers.
I’d agree with Mike on Harperson. She played a very difficult hand in a measured way. Good performance on “Marr”.
Meanwhile ….
New Economist/YouGov poll :
McCain 38% .. Obama 41%
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/econ22july2008_tabs.pdf
77 - Not ‘necessitate’ but it is in labour’s best interests, both short term and long term.
The public are not stupid, having seen labour try and boost their vote once by changing leader, and having seen the result of this, doing it again would ruin trust in the party. They need to keep what remains to be able to rebuild effectively.
Boulton going for the kill with Flint on Sky News, this is a bloodbath at the moment. Flint is woeful; petulant and evasive.
‘Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No it’s…. Supernat’
“Three years ago, Salmond gambled his already-firm reputation in SNP history by deciding to stand again for party leader – and won. Last year, he gambled his own position by choosing to fight in the safe Lib Dem seat of Gordon when there were other safer options available – and won. Defying sceptics, he boasted the SNP would emerge as the biggest party at Holyrood – and he was right. Last week, after making so many visits to Glasgow East that it had turned the by-election campaign into a virtual referendum on his Government, he won again.
It is a winning streak that cannot be explained simply by luck. Rather, Salmond appears blessed with a Midas touch. Now, as the dust settles on last week’s victory, attention will turn towards his biggest-ever roll of the dice: the promised referendum on Scottish independence. The polls suggest that this will be the toughest battle of all, even if Salmond manages to persuade Scotland’s Unionist parties that the referendum should take place at all. But, this weekend, few would be prepared to bet against him.
One Labour councillor recounted how, on Thursday afternoon, he had met a voter coming out of the polling booth, practically in tears. “She told me that her father would be turning in the grave, but that she just couldn’t bring herself to vote Labour. She felt she had to vote SNP for the first time in her life,” he said.
… Elizabeth MacPherson, a 24-year-old from Wellhouse within the constituency, revealed she had voted SNP for the first time last week for just those reasons. Speaking music to SNP ears, she declared: “I like the fact that they’re going to do away with council tax. My mum has always voted Labour, but I don’t see why I should follow.”
Many SNP figures, Salmond included, trace their strength in government to the moment the Lib Dems refused to go into coalition with them last year. “It was the best thing that could have happened to us,” Salmond has said.
Nationalist MSPs and MPs are also convinced that Labour will simply never learn how to take them on. “They are pursuing the wrong strategy on independence. Of course, there is a case for the Union, but they always exaggerate the benefits and make out independence to be a complete disaster. It’s stupid and no one believes them any more,” said one minister.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/opinion/Insight-Is-it-a-bird.4328868.jp
Boulton is giving Flint a hard time.
67. Sorry Stuart, but this is not good value, this is a load of piffle:
“Metropolitan political commentators up in Glasgow last week just couldn’t grasp that Scotland really is different as they looked in vain for a Tory revival. And despite reports, there wasn’t one.”
Where the F were these metrosexual dudes expecting a Tory revival? Certainly weren’t any on here. People were openly wondering whether the Tories would come fourth. No one, but no one, expected a “Tory revival” - in terms of the party challenging the SNP or Labour.
The most anyone expected, or hoped for, was what actually happened: a very modest rebound to a decentish third place, avoiding a lost deposit. This is Glasgaw East, FFS.
Scots Nats should be proud of a good win in the constituency. However, claiming it shows an epochal shift of the people, in favour of separation, is delusional. This was an anti-Labour vote, with a sider order of quite-liking-Salmond.
Incidentally, it occurs to me, as I’ve said before, that your best chance of winning a referendum is round about NOW. Labour is massively unpopular, your government is still enjoying its honeymoon, oil is $140 a barrel - this is the moment, not 2012 or 2015.
In five or six years time the gloss will have definitely come off the SNP - it’s inevitable. Oil will surely have peaked in price, and there will be less of it under the North Sea anyway. And I predict Cameron will prove a little cannier in defending the UK than you might expect.
You should try for a vote sooner rather than later.
71. I think you missed the point. The poster was saying that things can not get any worse, Labour will be punished by the electorate if they change leader, or get punished by the electorate if they keep the leader. So things either stay the same for Labour and they cruise to a landslide defeat in 2010. Or they change leader and they either recover or cruise to a landslide defeat in 2010. There’s nothing to lose.
75 - Good point - a grim seaside resort in cold, wet, blustery November, listening to Brown address a half-empty hall…
69. The reason that most people thought HH wouldn’t win was because she didn’t (and doesn’t) look like the best choice as a deputy for Labour. What a few of us missed was Labour’s obsession with gender ‘balance’ and the way she worked the machine. Neither of these factors is a recommendation for leadership: Gordon was a master at working the machine, and the gender thing only really works for subsidiary roles.
The question from a betting point of view is whether she’d have a chance, and I think she would (though not a leading one). Labour’s deputies have a poor, or in fact, non-existant, record of becoming leader, though that’s not to say it couldn’t happen.
I don’t however see her as a tough opponent, though she’d probably be better than Brown, not least as she’d probably have some idea of where she’d want to go. She would be bound to turn off a fair sized chunk of the electorate, and that of itself would probably ensure defeat in the current economic climate.
69 - Perhaps a touch harsh there Mike - Nick’s record is pretty good, and one misjudgement doesn’t destroy a man’s credibility! If we each were judged on our worst political bets…
83 - My point is that they missed the point. The blithe dismissal of the electorate is ridiculously short term thinking. Understandable when you are in such trouble but labour needs to hope that there is more long term thinking at the top, a loss now would pay dividends later. Clinging grimly to power never works.
82. SeanT
We’ll see, we’ll see. To date Sean your ‘novel’ takes on the Scottish political scene have been a tad, ahem, ‘underinformed’. But you may be right this time. Even a stopped clock is correct once every 12 hours.
69. Mike. I agree with you that Harriet Harperson played a straight bat this morning on BBC, but she was still lying through her teeth on the question that really mattered: the manouvering of labour mp’s to get rid of Brown.
80. The interesting thing is that the electorate, seemingly unlike Labour, seems to be able to distinguish between support for the SNP as a party, and support for Scottish independence.
82. The Tory share of the vote actually dropped a touch, though nowhere near as much as the Lib Dem one did.
There may be no constitutional requirement for another change in PM to result in a General Election - but it would really be a stunningly bad idea not to call one. The general populace tends not to be as au fait with constitutional niceties as us political anoraks. The concept that Labour are at the bottom at the moment would be severely tested.
It would be a real gamble - could the new leader turn things around to such an extent that they’d not only claw back the Gordon Falls, but also the hit they’d take by appearing to hold the electorate in contempt.
‘The tide of political optimism that will signal extinction for Labour’s political dinosaurs’
By First Minister Alex Salmond
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2410420.0.the_tide_of_political_optimism_that_will_signal_extinction_for_labours_political_dinosaurs.php
If the Labour Party is really considering throwing away 2 years of government in a “suicide” snap autumn election then they really have gone totally ga-ga! Does anyone really think that MPs in marginal constituencies, like Nick P, will be happy to be fired 2 years early just on the whim of spotty party hacks?? Hahah
As Stuart has ably shown us the main discussion in Scotland is how poor Labour was organised for Glasgow East. The party seems riven by internal fights in Scotland with no clear leadership and unable to accept that it is partly responsible for many of its problems. It is like watching the Tory party 10 years ago.
Another story from Glasgow East was the squeeze of the Lib Dems. For the next election there is a real fight between the Tories and the SNP to win votes from the Lib Dems. In marginal seats such as East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Perth and Angus the Lib Dem voter base is significant and in many ways softer than the Labour base which rather than switch will only stay at home.
78. Yes. Heard and read that the Great White/Black Chief, Obama is being given a roasting by U.S. press. Hail the conquering hero!
87. If Labour stay as they are they will probably not recover for a generation. Years of wilderness and a phenomenal Tory majority. Long term Labour are screwed anyway.
Personally I think the best option is to replace Brown with an elder statesmen like Jack Straw and have an election in May 2009.
re 86. Come on - just look at this comment he made on Thursday evening which, and I was tracking this closely, caused Labour’s price to tighten considerably.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/24/the-markets-stay-solid-for-labour/#comment-726809
The party, for whatever reason, wanted to spin it that they were doing well and Nick passed it on.
95 weathercock. Where ??
93 - Exactly why I think they will step back from the brink. There are two competing pathways, however; firstly, keep Brown and soldier on, hoping for improvement over the next couple of years. Secondly, change leader in order to call an election, lose big now but leave the tories with a massive headache.
I imagine that some labour people think that ‘change leader now and hope for improvement’ is a third option but they mistake the mood and would be punished for treating the electorate in that way. Indeed it would be labour’s worst possible option.
In the next general election, a vote for Labour in Scotland will be a wasted vote. No one expects Labour to win a Westminster majority, so people in Scotland who want, in Labour’s words, to ’stand up to the Tories’ will choose the SNP. Labour will not be believed if they say again that a vote for the SNP will ‘let Cameron in’. Cameron will be in whatever, and the SNP will be in a much better position to strike deals for Scotland. I suggested a few days ago that I expected David Cameron and Alex Salmond to work together sensibly and reasonably. Those who know far more about the interior workings of these things than I do have said that conversations have already started between the Conservatives and the SNP.
Glasgow East will remain SNP, and many another ’safe Labour seat’ will follow.
97. 86. What do you expect? How can anyone take a labour mp’s pronouncement as truth these days?
If Labour called an early election it would rightly be labeled by opposition parties and the public as running from the economic woes that they have helped make worse with their own policies.
I’m also agreeing with seanT (rare!) that the public will not look kindly on a party that keeps ditching Prime Ministers until it finds one that is popular. It’s a sign of the Labour panic that they are willing to countenance all these student-politics style shenanigans. Brown is striking the right tone when he talks about “getting on with the job”. If only other MPs did this too then their situation would be better…but they are just too self centred and childish to do that…
Bearing in mind the downsides of Brown leading Labour into the next election, of changing PM without an election and of changing PM and holding a snap election now, surely the course that minimises all downsides would be to change leader in the spring of 2010?
Brown takes the “scapegoat” blame for everything and is sent off into the wilderness with Labour’s misfortunes on his back, the new Leader rides the popularity boost at the perfect time (a little cynical, but hey - it’s politics) and if the Leader is a real change, he can try to minimise the “Time for a Change” meme.
97 Mike S. Not sure about cause and effect there Mike. There were plenty of counter flows of opinion and a politician saying hours before an election that he expects their party to do well is hardly unexpected news !!
Punters and political commentators need to heed those with a track record of spectacular success in punditary …. eh hum !!
78 - Rubbish, you read some strange things if you think that is the case.
Okay, I wasn’t going to link to articles today but you forced me, here’s the erstwhile ‘butcher of Broadway’ Frank Rich on the disaster of McCain and how the Obama trip has changed the game, perhaps irreversibly.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/opinion/27rich.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
“Mr. McCain could also have stepped into the leadership gap left by Mr. Bush’s de facto abdication. His inability to even make a stab at doing so is troubling. While drama-queen commentators on television last week were busy building up false suspense about the Obama trip — will he make a world-class gaffe? will he have too large an audience in Germany? — few focused on the alarms that Mr. McCain’s behavior at home raise about his fitness to be president.
Once again the candidate was making factual errors about the only subject he cares about, imagining an Iraq-Pakistan border and garbling the chronology of the Anbar Awakening. Once again he displayed a tantrum-prone temperament ill-suited to a high-pressure 21st-century presidency. His grim-faced crusade to brand his opponent as a traitor who wants to “lose a war” isn’t even a competent impersonation of Joe McCarthy. Mr. McCain comes off instead like the ineffectual Mr. Wilson, the retired neighbor perpetually busting a gasket at the antics of pesky little Dennis the Menace. ”
Of course, if you hear things from Fox and read them from nutty right wing blogs then of course you hear different, they have no connection to the real world however, never did (although they do, of course, have a direct link to the current disgraced administration).
More to come.
98. Fox and U.S. TV.
Jack Sraw has as much charisma as Gordon Brown - ZERO. He also has the baggage of being the foreign secretary who helped take Britain into Iraq.
As for David Miliband, he is a lightweight who would never win the respect of the country.
96 - I don’t things need to be that bad for labour, the key lies in leaving now, before the worst of the economic downturn hits. At least then they can start to say that at least they didn’t do any worse.
98. Also said as an aside by Andrew Neil on the Marr Show this morning.
97. Hmm. There seem to be a lot of caveats in that post from Nick, almost to the extent that those wishing to read between the lines could get a post saying “Labour HQ reckon that things are OK, but the figures are open to so many interpretations that I’m certainly not going to agree with it publicly, which means that I think that there is at least a decent chance that things may well not be going OK”.
The only point he was clear on was the turnout - on which he was proved right.
106 weathercox. Fox !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think you’ll find that on this site endorsing your position with Fox News as backup is akin to the first person shouting “Nazi” in an argument !!
Agree with David Herdson at 14 - with Labour’s fortunes having fallen off the scale over the past year, how on earth is “I’m focussed on getting on with the job” supposed to be a good line to spin?
We’ve all seen the election results - up and down the country, voters are casting judgment on how Brown is doing, and the spin is “we hear you and we’ll do more of what we’re doing now.” Can they really believe that will work, and turn voters back towards Labour? Even the spin seems suicidal these days.
The consensus defence has gone from “Brown is good” to “getting rid of him would be worse” - once this last line of defence is gone, it will be curtains. It’ll just take one resignation, one senior person to go on the record, and then the floodgates will open. Will it happen? Nick P says no, and I’m inclined to believe him - why would anyone jump now if they hadn’t already? But not even Harriet and Straw seem to have any enthusiasm for him left, neither do the media or the voters, so it could be a painful couple of years till the next election.
Hills reopened their ‘Gordon Brown - Leaving By End of Year’ market today with ‘No’ having shortened to 8/13 and ‘Yes’ out to 6/5. Seems the punters, myself included, think the probability is that he will endure.
Personally I think that the 8/13 is still value.
On a related theme, Labour Seats on Sporting’s spreads market dropped another 2 points overnight. Spreadfair was however unchanged and it’s getting close to arbitrage territory between the two firms.
There doesn’t seem to be much liquidity on Spreadfair these days. Maybe it’s because of their new policy on margin calls.
106 - Aha, a comedy genius! If you watch Fox then you are getting the GOP view unadorned, I now understand why you could post that without irony.
The other channels have tended to ignore McCain so far but, for reasons of balance and of timetable they are now starting to take him apart over his gaffes. They have given Obama far more coverage but, unlike with McCain they are both praiseful and critical, with McCain he gets less coverage but he’s had a free ride on the criticism so far.
The GOP attenmpt to make this election solely about Obama is starting to run away from them now that the campaign is kicking in. It was short sighted to start with but, in attempting it, they have allowed Obama to get through the negatives early and made sure that an unknown candidate has become known enough to lead all available polls.
111. Jack me old darlin’, lok at my post #109 for confirmation.
101 Weathercock
If that were the case, they would have no impact on the betting prices.
116. Peter. Excactly and you would know WHERE to place your money. Even a low price is better than a fools gamble.
*IF* Labour did replace Brown and not bother to consult the electorate for 18 months, I think anger and resentment would grow to such an extent that people would actually take to the streets over it. The British people are a tolerant people, not prone to protesting, but even we have a breaking point!
Just been reading about Carline Flint on Sky this morning.
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx#2116
Apparently she said the Govt put their hands up when they have made mistakes.
This is absolute delusion. The Govt has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to admit errors. Remember Gordon refusing to accept that anyone would be affected by the 10p tax debacle>>>>
117 For once, Weathercock, I am lost for words.
Do you know as much about gambling as you do about politics?
re 113. PtP - dead right. Spreadfair used to be great when they provided credit terms in just the same way as the other big spread firms. They then got out of that for political markets and you have to stump up a big deposit if you want a bet.
You just wonder about their commitment.
I used to do most of my spread betting with the firm - now I’m damned if I’m going to leave £2,000 lodged almost permanently with them so I can have a bet.
I’m coming round to the view that the best places to have a political punt are the traditional bookies - Hills, Ladbrokes PaddyPower etc. That’s where most of my money has been going recently.
More for weathercock who clearly needs to widen his reading.
Washington Times - “David Axelrod could not have scripted a better week for his candidate.
Sen. Barack Obama was pressured by his Republican rival to visit two war zones, and he traveled to eight countries amid fears he would make some crippling foreign-policy gaffe.
Instead, European leaders fawned over the Democratic presidential candidate, who was greeted by excited fans everywhere and attracted record crowds in Berlin. He got an added boost from key Iraqi officials and even his opponent as they embraced a timetable for troop withdrawal. ”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/26/obama-trip-gaffe-free/
Also, maybe a glimmer of light for him as he may have spotted the anti-liberal bias in network coverage so far -
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story
“The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, where researchers have tracked network news content for two decades, found that ABC, NBC and CBS were tougher on Obama than on Republican John McCain during the first six weeks of the general-election campaign.
You read it right: tougher on the Democrat.
During the evening news, the majority of statements from reporters and anchors on all three networks are neutral, the center found. And when network news people ventured opinions in recent weeks, 28% of the statements were positive for Obama and 72% negative.
Network reporting also tilted against McCain, but far less dramatically, with 43% of the statements positive and 57% negative, according to the Washington-based media center.”
Told you so.
I understand how worried you are, however, just think of it as creating some empathy with labour supporters.
By the way, I quoted a speech using Obama’s ‘citizens of the world’ phrase a few days ago, nobnody saw fit to challenge it. The quote was, of course from Ronald Reagan, not Obama.
69 “Harriet would be a tough opponent for Cameron.” - ?!!!! Yes as Mr Fear has said amongst that key swing demographic of metropolitan hardline socialist PCers. Even Paul Linford has said she is political marmite adored by a tiny band of supporters and loathed by the population at large. She along with Balls is probably the only one who could drive Cameron’s vote share higher.
97 - Even assuming that Nick Palmer occasionally acts as a party mouthpiece (and if a PPS isn’t going to do that, who is?), it is useful to know what message the party wishes to put out there. All posters have views and some posters have agendas. The readership of this site is sophisticated and can make its own mind up when someone is giving an independent view and when someone is following an agenda.
For what it’s worth, I read Nick Palmer’s statements on this thread with great interest. His post at 4 was, I think, very carefully worded. He has used this formulation before and I expect we shall see it again.
122 Yes, UKPaul, a quick browse through the articles on RealClear Politics will always help those interested in assessing the standing of the Candidates.
For those not already familiar with this excellent site, the link is:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
123 - I imagine Labour supporters thought the same when Margaret Thatcher was chosen in 1975. A mediocre public speaker with a grating voice, a hardline agenda and following a discredited grumpy man - yum, they must have thought. I’m not a Harriet Harman fan, but as she has shown today, she has grit, which is more than most of the Cabinet have.
Finally for now, McCain is trying to claim that Obama went to the, gym but not the troops in Kuwait. Bizarrely, this is accompanied, in the ad, by Obama with the very troops he claims that he didn’t meet. The Pentagon also nixed a visit from Obama to wounded troops in Germany, not a political decision at all, oh no!
McCain’s lost it, he’s been angry, petty, petulant, vindictive, forgetful, muddled and gaffe-prone recently. That his team announced a visit to an oil rig at the very moment that Hurricane Dolly was heading towards it was just jaw-dropping, he’s worse than Brown (and that’s saying something).
re 123. Well we disagree on that one Punter. I think that you are completely wrong.
127
I saw this on Theo Spark’s website.
http://www.theospark.net/2008/07/obama-in-afghanistana-soldiers-view.html
125 - They’ve still not updated to Sunday as far as I can see (weekend updates are always later).
Realclearpolitics does, however, lean to the right and its choice of articles reflects that, always linking to Krauthammer and the like for example. The articles may be mixed but they are definitely slanted; as long as you realise that then reading the different views can be very useful in formulating your own.
I also think that Drudge is very useful, more and more he shows antipathy to the current administration and the links he provides are pretty well balanced.
120. peter. ‘Tis true I’m Quite the innocent as far as gambling is concerned. Rlease elucidate!
126. Except that Thatcher turned out to be in tune with the general mood of the country in 1979 following the Winter of Discontent (not sure that she was in 1975, but that’s a different matter). Harman is way out of tune with the way the political music of the moment. Replacing Brown with Harman would have been like replacing Major with Portillo in 1995: it might play well with the core vote but would (have) be(en) toxic to the majority.
129 - Aha, MTF you’ve just walked straight into it!
One of those ‘what do you think? Forward this to everyone you know!’ emails that pollute some people’s inboxes. This is how rumours start, by passing on outright lies.
pwned - as my student’s might say.
Here’s snopes debunking it totally - http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/afghanistan.asp
I’ll quote from in a minute but snopes make it difficult to cut and paste.
Ooeeerr…!! I think Mr. Smithson *fancies* Mrs. Harman!!!!
(*to a suitably childish melody*)
Mike and Harriet up a tree… K-I-SS-I-N-G!!!
131 The regular punters on this site generally make a nice profit from betting on politics. Stick around and you’ll soon get the hang of it.
Nick Palmer you said the other day that you will not tell us everything - a reasonable position most of us take, too- but you will try to be truthful.
Looking at your first post of the day in that light it is interesting that you do not deny there is plotting, you say you do not support a change of leader, and that “I really recomend taking this stuff with a large pinch of salt if you’re betting on it,” which is not quite the same as saying that all of it, indeed any of it, is totally untrue.
Good political stuff. And I say that with no side to it.
Here’s the debunking, people should check to see if they are passing on lies.
“The latest chain e-mail smear against Barack Obama: He “blew off” troops at an Afghan base to shoot hoops for a publicity photo.
The e-mail claims Obama repeatedly shunned soldiers on his way to the Clamshell — a recreation tent — to “take his publicity pictures playing basketball.”
“These comments are inappropriate and factually incorrect,” said Bagram spokeswoman Army Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, who added that such political commentary is barred for uniformed personnel.
Obama didn’t play basketball at Bagram or visit the Clamshell, she said. Home-state troops were invited to meet him, but his arrival was kept secret for security reasons.
“We were a bit delayed … as he took time to shake hands, speak to troops and pose for photographs,” Nielson-Green said. ”
And the writer of the email on realising their mistake -
“I am writing this to ask that you delete my email and not forward it. After checking my sources, information that was put out in my email was wrong. This email was meant only for my family. Please respect my wishes and delete the email and if there are any blogs you have my email portrayed on I would ask if you would take it down too. Thanks for your understanding.”
One example from responses from people serving in the military in Afghanistan (more on the site).
“I don’t know who this captain saw, but it wasn’t the Barack Obama *I* just saw in Afghanistan. Unlike most of the pols who breeze on through for nothing more than brief photo ops before leaving he was warm, friendly & engaging (as much as security would allow) with the troops he met and he was genuinely interested in us and our mission and how we could best serve our country. When Obama went to Jordan a few days ago they said “The guy gets it. Sharp, aware and a very good listener. He doesn’t seem stuck in preconceived positions.” Those are the qualities *I*’d like to see in my Commander in Chief. While Obama was out visiting the troops, what was John McCain doing …?, playing golf with his rich cronies (Bush Sr.) in Kennbunkport and whining about how much press coverage Obama was getting. Definitely *not* the qualities I want to see in my Commander in Chief.
Personally I think any officer who would publically gripe about not getting “thanked” for his service by a civilian is a disgrace to the military. ”
So MTF, it ain’t true.
128 Don’t get me wrong she is the nearest thing GB has to John Reid as Minister for the Today program. Won’t underperform, good attack dog etc but as Leader? Different kettle of fish. Perhaps an exaggeration to put her on Balls level of voter repellemt but I think you’re thinking too hard on the gender issue. Of the women in the Cabinet Smith is not only as combative but far more likely to appeal to voters.
137
fair enough> I only said i saw it. The internet is full of misinformation. I thought about whether to post it, I only did because I read above on the thread about Obama being given a hard time by the American media.
I am somewhat disappointed at the failure of the LibDems to boost their poll ratings.
A blast from the past to remind us all.
Liberal Manifesto: October 1974: Why Britain Needs Liberal Government
I came across this little gem whilst surfing this morning. I was amazed at how similar some issues were in 1974 to those we face today. “ In ten years the price of an average new house has risen three times, the cost of a mortgage has risen five times whilst the proportion of an average family’s income spent on mortgage repayments has increased from 25 per cent. to 50 per cent. The average price of a new house at over £10,900 is well beyond the reach of over half the population and unless steps are taken soon to alleviate the situation, home ownership will become a thing of the past.”
It’s interesting to count up the rumours that snopes has on US politicians -
McCain - 3 (1 true)
Romney - 1 (which is true and pretty funny)
Bush II - 47 (20 true)
Huckabee - 1 (true)
The Clintons - 26 (only 1 true)
John Kerry - 22 (3 true)
Obama - 27 (2 true)
There’s a pretty clear pattern here, Democrats have more rumours spread about them, unless you are Bush, in which case, a disproportionate number of them are actually true.
139 - That’s what these emails prey on, most people wouldn’t think to check its veracity; if it confirms pre-existing prejudices then it gets passed on and, by sheer numbers, becomes a truth in many people’s minds. I’ve no doubt that thousands of Americans now believe that this is true, even though it is a proven lie.
There should be a poll taken on how much these things affect voting intention, the results might be illuminating.
138 - I think Harman would be a decent choice, actually. Labour would do well to consider a woman as leader anyway, in my opinion, and Harman has been underestimated time and time again. I also think that the Conservatives would struggle to attack her in the same way as they do Brown without coming across as rather unpleasant. I don’t think she’ll get the job and I think Labour are utterly doomed, but I do agree with Mr Smithson that she shouldn’t be underestimated.
143, Harman would be dire. The PM as champion of anti-white and anti-male legislation would not be a recipe for a remarkable recovery.
Whilst things are quiet, and we are on the subject of lies or truth, here’s the strange but true story (also verified by snopes) of how a foot deodorant was once elected mayor in the Ecuadorian town of Picoaza.
“Foot Powder Wins Election Hands Down
QUITO, Ecuador, July 17; Controversy is raging here because a foot powder named Pulvapies was elected mayor of a town of 4000.
A foot deodorant firm decided during recent municipal election campaigns to use the slogan: “Vote for any candidate, but if you want well-being and hygiene, vote for Pulvapies.”
On the eve of the election, the company distributed a leaflet the same size and color as official voting papers, saying: “For Mayor: Honorable Pulvapies.”
When the votes were counted, the coastal town of Picoaza had elected Pulvapies mayor, and voters in other municipalities had marked their ballots for it.
The national electoral tribunal now is grappling with the problem, and dozens of defeated candidates are threatening to sue the pharmaceutical company.”
re Oh come on. This is not what I want or do not want to happen but merely me giving my judgement on her electability.
Remember I was a heavy backer on Cameron for the Tory leadership even when he reached 10-1 on the Friday before the October 2005 conference. I backed Harriet for deputy when the received opinion and betting prices all pointed to Johnson…and did I tell you about my Barack Obama !!!
I have also said consistently that Brown would be a disaster.
A change of PM is perfectly possible even if there is pressure for a consequential election. Use that to advantage.
Speaking notes (very draft one) for the next Labour PM on the steps of No 10:
The Queen has done me the honour of asking me to form a government
This is a very difficult time for everyone (list of factors)
We have made mistakes which have made the international economic problems worse
We must correct the worst of those mistakes over the next few months
We shall then ask the electorate to endorse this new government in a general election
There are a number of important national and international problems which need attention over the next few months
There will be a new budget towards the end of this year
I understand the feeling that a general election should be called immediately
It would be irresponsible to call an election at this time when we face an economic and international crises
This government will not be irresponsible
The election will take place in the first half of next year and I will announce the date once I can be sure that the timing will not damage the business of government, business which will concentrate on supporting the less well off and the effects of the fuel and food price rises and the tax system and deal with the mistaken approach to motorists and house buyers.
Is it true though. I have just googled it and there were no hits at all…
148
Thats because i had a typo
146 FWIW I think you may well be right on her electability within the Labour Party. I just don’t get where you see her appeal to the Public. If Labour were to opt for a woman Leader Smith has far more voter appeal than Harman.
146. Mike, to be fair, you are *USUALLY* 100% right - about 95% of the time…
But I do recall an article from the Summer of 2005 urging us to “cut our losses on Cameron” and bail out when it looked like he was not going to win.
Must be the only time I’ve ignored you - some of us had faith
148 - July 18, 1967 in “The New Yorker”, Washington Post and New York Times, among others via a Reuters report.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/footpowder.asp
If Brown isn’t knifed, dumped or exiled to Africa pdq, his successor may be elected from the rump of NuLab after a catastrophic electoral defeat. Too many of the ‘contenders’ are now in danger of not being returned at a GE.
#147
No EU Referendum promise: suicide-note.
151 Nobody gets it right ALL the time, Casino; not even me!
re 151. I do have losers. Most I thought the anti-rape campaigner would do better in H&H and lost £200 and for a long period and I could not believe that the PLP would give a coronation to a leader who was so obviously devoid of voter appeal as Gordon Brown.
I have a tendency to over-estimate the potential of the Lib Dems but I’m learning.
147 - no, I can’t see that working - admitting its all your fault and then asking for a few months which is not enough time to correct anything, as well as making yourself a lame duck from day one - no, I think that would make the eventual annihilation all the more comprehensive.
It looks to me as though Brown is still be given one more final chance. As long as that goes on, and no-one of note has the gumption to stick their neck and out and declare that he should go now, or preferably yesterday, then he will stay. The situation will continue to drift.
Harman would be a disaster for the country, if she became PM.
Remember, Harman was sacked by Blair from his first cabinet, (for lying some people thought, and for the attempted cover up afterwards). Ask Frank Field.
She was lying through her teeth today - see post #45 - and will always do so it’s in her nature. Just part of a lying government.
150. Can you cite a source?
More importantly, are there any polls which pitch Harman/Smith/Kelly/Blears etc. against Cameron? ‘Cos that’s who they’ll be up against once they’re done with the party navel-gazing.
If there aren’t I’ve a feeling there soon will be. The current difficulties in dragging GB out of Downing St will be superceded by polls dissecting anyone who’s ever had a sniff of a red box regarding their chances as Lab leader. But it will be merely displacement activity unless one at least shows they can make significant inroads on the Tory poll lead.
Incidentally, this political cowardice in administering the coup de grace to GB bears a pale metaphorical remembrance of the death of Stalin. He too was surrounded by placemen and toadies, and even though he was obviously on his deathbed all were too scared to admit it or do anything about it. Which raises the question: why would the electorate vote for any one of the crowd that obviously lack the guts to act decisively when required?
Everytime I have disagreed with Mike he has proved to be right and me wrong. Its one of the reasons i’m so fearful for clegg. Mikes view that opinions set in the first 6 months and then can’t be shifted. Harriet may be derided o here but look at the political come back. sacked in the most humiliating of cicumstances in 1998. he fought her way back via being solicitor general, an obscure role but having a real impact on vulnerable womens lives. he beat arguably better qualified men for the deputs role and is a now a player. What ever we think of her shes gets the PMQs gig and is one of those deputising for Brown when he is away.
Mike is right to rate her skills in a potential leadership election.
155. Peter - you are my hero. You know that
156. “I have a tendency to over-estimate the potential of the Lib Dems but I’m learning.”
Maybe you’d be a good counsellor for Mark Senior then?
No, seriously, it’ll be interesting to see how tribal Tories like myself perform in our betting once the next Tory government starts becoming unpopular.
Will we overestimate our appeal again? Probably.
But, if I listen to venerated forecasting geniuses like Peter the Punter and yourself - especially on the occassions where you concur - I can not lose!!
162 LOL!
A leadership contest between Straw and Miliband? What’s in it for Miliband? If the majority on this site is right and Labour were forced to hold an early election, any Labour leader would be toast. For Straw, bringing this sacrifice may be a good finale to his career, Miliband would just be tainted by defeat going on.
Sorry if I rubbished you over Harriet, Mike - I don’t remember that, but perhaps we all have selective memory which edits out the mistakes. What I reported from people involved in the Glasgow campaign was exactly what I’d been told by others, and I was careful to say it wasn’t a personal view. It’s a mistake to see my comments here as representing anyone else - frankly we are not sufficiently well-organised to have advice on what we should say on blogs.
MTF, witan: don’t mean to be a tease, but there are various reasons why I might not say something - too busy, too lazy, too discreet, tired of repeating myself, who knows? If I say something, you can rely on my believing it to be true. If I don’t, it doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
mirthios - I’ve read the quotes carefully, and they don’t in fact deny the ovation. They say there used to be lots of ovations for Tony, and that it was only when someone “lumbered” to his feet that the others followed. That’s journalist’s spin for “there was one standing ovation at the end”. As, I’m told, there was. Was it a jolly, enthusiastic gathering generally? That’s not what I said…
As further evidence of the lack of support for a coup, note that the Sunday Times, who, as I reported on Thursday, were ringing round backbenchers and PPSs looking for damaging quotes, completely failed to get a single one to say on the record that they thought a leadership challenge was a good idea - instead, as journalists do, they’ve not bothered to mention that they tried.
re v164. If it was a Straw-Miliband-Harman contest then Harman would come in the final two simply because of the gender element.
In that situation there would be a mass of polling including on the gender matter and my sense is that HH would do OK. Miliband looks and speaks to much like a geek and Jack Straw - starting to look a bit old and from the past.
BTW - has anybody seen the “Daily Show’s” portrayal on John McCain - going upstairs with the help of a Stannah stair lift. It’s great and hard for him to counter.
144. But it’s always possible her election would bring out the nastiness of the hard right-wing, re-toxifying the Tory image.
15.As a newbie, could anyone tell me how safe is Nick P at the next election,what sort of swing would it take to see him job hunting.
159. The way that Labour ought to be thinking about their next leader is as leader of the opposition.
5. had a very good point about the party tearing itself apart. Removing Brown could prove as simple as toppling Saddam.
My belief is that in terms of giving DC a hard time in government, HH could be very effective. She’d also batter the party into some sort of order. I cannot stand the woman, but I fear Mike is right.
Why would anybody time a change in Labour Party leadership for the middle of an economic storm, so the new leader gets the blame for any consequences, Nick Palmer asks.
Isn’t the answer obvious? You would do it if you thoought you would be the runner up. So you are then nicely placed as the front runner for the following time, while your strongest rival is badly damaged.
Surely the Brothers have thought that one out?
re 165. I agree. Unless people are prepared to go on the record then Gordon is safe. The fact is that they are not and it’s hard to see what would precipitate a move.
It’s when my old colleague and ultra-loyalist Denis MacShane starts being critical then we’ll know that Gord is in trouble.
166 Mike S. Funny “Daily Show” link below. Scroll down to “beabea” at 0938.10 pm :
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/27/0556/75087/209/557101
167. Nasty? By constantly referring to the swept-under-the-carpet scandal of her donations, you mean?
What’s wrong with Gordon’s smile? I know it’s happened ever since he became Prime Minister but the random 2 second bursts of smile in a serious conversation are comical. It’s like a trigger in his head goes off every 30 seconds saying “Look happy”. It’s so uncomfortable to watch.
161 No one doubts her chances in a Leadership election. It’s her chances in a General election v Cameron that sees doubt for her.
163. Xoxoxoxoxoxoxo Hugs and Kisses!!!!!
(Oh, shit, you’re a man…. er… awkward man-huh… er… strong, firm handshake… er… talk about women and our wives… er…. *Casino awkwardly leaves the room*…)
165 I note you reply to many people, Nick, but not to me at 19!
It is a tough question though.
Nick you cannot credibly argue that Cabinet ministers have not briefed on the record, therefore there’s no putsch.
There are plenty of awful quotes from unnamed Cabinet Ministers in today’s and tomorrow’s papers; and “ministers” calling for a coup were referred to by Huw Edwards (?) on the Andrew Marr show.
So you either must accept that Cabinet and junior ministers are contacting journalists and giving quotes that Brown should resign off the record, or, you must argue that all these journalists including BBC presenters are all simply inventing this.
I would be genuinely amazed if you claimed the latter was true.
Brown has been a dead duck for ages now, yet after every disaster we get the same thing: declarations of his imminent demise, mumblings from anonymous cabinet ministers, speculation, then …….. nothing. Nobody sticks their head above the parapet, and he stumbles on.
If the senior types can’t organise it between them, perhaps the only route will be a dissatisfied lone ranger like John Reid.
168: My lead at the last election was 4.7%, so it needs a 2.4% swing.
Oh and that standing ovation - if you don’t believe me, mirthios, how about the Mail and Evening Standard?
“Grim-faced and defiant, Gordon Brown insists he is ‘getting on with the job’. Trades unionists in Warwick rally round with a standing ovation.” (Mail editorial 25/7)
Off to a meeting, so silence from me doesn’t mean anything at all for a bit!
173. All she’d have to do is not mention women’s issues once and let the tories attack her on the basis of it to bring back doubts about tories’ attitudes to women (and by extention all minorities). Harriet Harridan/Harperson jibes probably won’t play well with swing voters.
afternoon all, just been catching up on all this morning’s posts.
If you all learned anything from Glasgow East I thought it would be to listen to those of us in tune with the Scottish sceneas regards what is happening up here. I don’t feel qualified to comment on Surrey, Kent, Cornwall or Cumbria and I agree 150% with Stuart’s various comments this morning.
Shortly after joining PB around 3 months ago I said it felt like 1977-79 and day by day that seems more correct. It was the SNP joining with the Tories and Liberals, dissatisfied with The SCotland Act 1979 which brought down the Labour government of Jim Callaghan.
Last night we were speculating on the relationship between Eck and Dave and there are many of us who believe the likely relationship will be far more positive and constructive than many of you can comprehend. After all Dave probably spends more time in Scotland than Gordon Brown. No doubt he will be on the west coast shortly for his usual family holiday.
On Friday evening I gave my predictions for the 4 main Glasgow East candidates. I had forgotten the boundary changes currently being proposed breaks up Margaret Curran’s seat so she hould just go straight to the Lords in 2011.
Re Glasgow East, just watch John Mason get returned with a majority of around 1500. He will be to the SNP what Teddy Taylor was to the Tories pre 1979, a Glasgow MP who held on to his seat against all the odds because he was basically a hard working popular local MP.
If Labour doesn’t ditch Brown and I still dont think they have the “balls” to do so, remember Scotland can still deliver 3 knockout blows to Labour in the next 18 months.
1) Jack McConnell has to resign by next Easter, so SNP gain Motherwell and Wishaw at Holyrood which gives Eck a 2 seat lead over Labour and he can then do a straight deal with Annabel because Tavish probably wont want to come out to play.
2) Poor John MacDougall is seriously ill in Glenrothes and it is hard to see him either live until the GE (which I sincerely hope he does) or more likely stand down on doctors advice so he can concentrate on recovering his health. In 2005 he beat the SNP by over 10,000 but in 2007 in Central Fife, the old name for the seat, at Holyrood Tricia Marwick took the seat with a majority of 1166 on a 46% turnout. While the Holyrood seat is smaller, it is the bulk of the Westminster seat. This one will go SNP by over 5000
3) The Local Income Tax. Alistair Darling has already said he will not refund to the Scottish Government the £400 million which is currently paid as council tax benefit if the local income tax is introduced. Just imagine how that one will play!!!
Unless there is a dramatic change in the polls, at the GE the SNP and the Scottish Tories will carry out a pincer movement on the Labour party and the softer parts of the LibDem party. There are almost 20 seats where this together with regional effects could totally change the results from those of 2007. Whilst the LibDem seats won in 1987 are all probably safe, some of the 1997 could be very vulnerable where the 2005 seats are not widely different. The same applies to Lab-Con marginals.
However on the advice of Morus, if you want to know the details, you will just have to wait.
Right off to visit my grandmother in hsopital so catch up with you all later.
166. And because of her career arc hariet looks new even though she isn’t. I think its Brown,Straw, Darling and Harman from the original 1997 cabinet and he looks the freshest simply because she hasn’t ben on the cene of the crime for most of that period. I think the real dialectic here won’t be left/right or Blairite/old labour it will be Last Hurrah versus Last Hope.
Do they go for an oldie Johnston/Straw/Harman who will be slaughtered ut will end considerable careers having been Prime Minister of the United Kingdom ? or do they role the dice and go for some one with a future at stake in the hope that more of them then do have a future.
My own view is they need an old timer who is prepared to ut the dress uniform on and stand on the bridge while the ship goes down giving time for the younger ones to get to the life boats.
177: test, I’ve not commented because I don’t know any more than anyone else on that. If I heard that you’d told the Sun that you were seanT’s secret gay lover, I might be a little sceptical, but I wouldn’t be in a position to deny it.
181 Sorry I meant the results from 2005 could be totally different and far more like those of 2007 or worse for both Labour and the LibDems.
Geraldine Smith MP on sky calling for brown to sack the ‘ministers’ who are undermining his position, so it is obviously really happening. She just comes across as a Blearsesque talking head but what do i know…….
A pro-Gordon backbencher on Sky News accusing ministers of being condescending to the public. Hmm…
183. “seanT’s secret gay lover”
Thought that was you?
With “EU Commissioner” themed orgies where you whip SeanT with a rolled up EU flag on the bottom whilst frenetically shouting; “Amsterdam, Maastrict, Lisbon… NICE!!!”
Be carefull… the NOTW will be on to you.
162 Casino: “Peter - you are my hero. You know that”
Who’d have thought it after such a shaky start last year!
183 Nick is just following the Brown Strategy which believes that Brown is like Churchill and will eventually be respected for “just buggering on”. Unfortunately Labour seemed to have forgotten that Hitler also just buggered on and wasn’t overly popular at the end. My money is on Brown’s popularity being closer to Hitler’s than Churchill by 2010 and although the public may not like divided party’s, they absolutely despise party’s that completely ignore them.
183
Trouble is Nick, what are you going to do when he goes (which he will I am almost certain) - come on here and talk about how you, like the other Labour MPs decided enough was enough? Or slag off the new leader for forcing out Gordon who you have always thought was the right man? Your mob afre talking yourselves into a HUGE cat fight which we will all enjoy very much but the country will suffer for as you indulge in a selfish bout of power-grabbery and internal numb-nuttery.
Surely you would be better employed not talking about the leadership at all - you, and the rest of Labour are starting to look even more ridiculous than usual over this - the electorate do not forgive foolishness lightly.
Labour gain lots of time to pursue other interests
re 172. The Daily Show clip -
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=177449
Of course no one is paying the level of attention to this that we are however what are Joe and Josephine Public thinking abot it all while they are struggling to pay the mortgage and the gas bill ?
183 fair enough Nick. But the difference is Sun journos are not saying they’ve been briefed on a secret affair between Sean T and me - they do, however, say Cabinet ministers are calling for Brown’s resignation.
Leaves a binary option:
1. Cabinet ministers are contacting journalists to say they want Brown to resign, they ask not to be named
2. Journalists are lying and inventing fictitious tales of Cabinet ministers calling them up.
I know which option I believe to be the more likely.
165 Nick Palmer you repeat what I said, perhaps I was not clear.
But the fact remains in your first post today you did not deny the plotting that is reported in the papers this morning, you only told us not to bet on it.
Well we wouldn’t bet on that, would we, but a confirmation from the PLP that plotting is taking place is important in judging when Brown will go and how far the PLP will go into meltdown if something is not done.
So like the old and fun game of Kremlinology, we know what you say despite the words that you use.
re-reading the wonderful Matthew Parris piece from yesterday,
http://tinyurl.com/6y99d4
his timetable implies visible revolution before the end of the month. HH may have missed her chance on the box this morning.
193 Cabinet ministers grow secret pair, buy huge balloon pants to hide their bravado shocker.
Lab Gain Hammertime
85. And we cant let her extraordinary proposals to make white men second/third class citizens in their own country go without punishment. A dreadfully poor piece of political judgement. Labour has a stong core vote who feel dispossessed, and that their government is more interested in satisfying the needs of immigrant groups. And, she introduces a policy that puts the needs of immigrant groups above those of natives.
A staggering piece of bigotry.
160 Totally agree, can anyone think of a member of the cabinet who has ever displayed courage or shown evidence of a political backbone? If a putsch does take place I think it will only be after the backbenchers have voted en masse against a government bill. Then, and only then, might someone like Straw pluck up the courage to suggest to “The Great Loser” that he needs to consider his position. But don’t hold your breath.
Mike- I agree that Harman would be a tough opponent. But on the downside she is a humourless PCer. Remember her last disastrous PMQ’s, and her recent attack on white working class men? She might have an initial bounce but long term could cause Labour even more damage.
Did anyone else pick up on Ed Milliband’s comment on Friday’s Newsnight regarding helping “hard working families”? He said that the tax cut due in September was one of the ways they were helping. This tax cut is the one introduced as compensation for the 10p tax disaster. Expect this to be repeated by all Ministers soon. Shameless, but they really cannot help themselves.
191. great clip Mike. Harsh but shrewd reporting of the race.
ps. loved the fox news pisstake. I think that you may be on to something with Harman, I suspect she would lose a General election, but she would put up a fight and she has proved capable of winning labour internal elections.
197. Are you classing all non-whites as “immigrants” out of interest?
NickP, of the two options:
1. Test is my secret gay lover
2. Cabinet ministers really are briefing that Brown Must Go
I am minded to belive the latter, if only because Test is, er, a Lady.
Now I’m off to the swimming pool to stare wistfully at the Italian girls. Ou sont les nubiles d’antan?
181. “3) The Local Income Tax. Alistair Darling has already said he will not refund to the Scottish Government the £400 million which is currently paid as council tax benefit if the local income tax is introduced. Just imagine how that one will play!!!”
What’s the Tory line on this? Annabel Goldie is against Local Income Tax, but will David Cameron over-rule her and give Alex Salmond the £400 million, making LIT affordable?
Nick, someone needs to get a grip on the Labour Party. Even Denis McShane (not one of life’s rebels) writes in the Telegraph that the Scottish years are over and that the Party needs more English leaders, a clear gibe at Brown and Darling. Talking about a leadership change is far worse than actually doing it.
And if it is to be done, get it over with. Don’t wait till October. The Labour Party was always handicapped by the label ‘well meaning but incompetent at running the economy’. It seemed to get away from the second part of that label. Now it is back with a vengeance and as long as Brown is there, his smug boasting when the going was good, his profligacy, his high taxes and his statistical fiddles will make it impossible to change that perception.
I just listened to Ed Balls on Radio 4 today defending GB. All about keeping nerve and discipline and giving examples:
Mrs Thatcher 1982 1986.
Then went on about 1992 an dspoiled the effect.
Of course the Conservatives kept their nerve in 1992: they had just thrown out Mrs T and no way were they going to throw out another PM.:-)
Which leads me to:
Labour is broke.
On current polling it loses half its seats.
GB is a liability - clearly - but no obvious successor could do much better imo. (HH? dunno: is she tough enough? Probably)
So if I were a Labour MP I’d do nowt.. better to lose two years from now: something may turn up.
As for a second unelected PM? Who gives a stuff? As we don’t have a constitution, make it up as you go along.
Brown is safe imo : safe .
(to be proved wrong 3 months later!)
200. They are not natives, and they are not being turned into third class citizens.
Interesting.
I notice that the leadership crisis got 11.5 opening minutes on the World this Weekend. More than a third of the programme. the BBC wouldn’t do this unless it was big. Balls was doing the defence and was unusually robotic and his voice seemed broken at times. The story led the softer radio 2 news as well.
179 Nick P
interesting you quote from the Mail , that didnt have the leadership issue on the front page, and that Dacre and Gordo are pals…
All the Equalities Bill does is say that you pick between candidates on the basis of gender and race if (a) they are equally qualified (b) it helps balance your employment demographics. Its a not a general provision. (c) you want to. Its a power not a duty.
As the number of cases covered will be miniscule I think its a silly peice of legislation as it gives ammo to conspiracy theorists and the BNP. However to suggest its what it is often potrayed as is silly.
As for immigrants getting better rights. It applie to gender as well. Did all the women in Britain arrive on the bananna boat as well ?
Should Brown be finished? No, says the leader in today’s IOS:
http://tinyurl.com/6gwrru
Ploughing a lonely furrow.
Easterross, you wrote of a pincer movement by the Tories and SNP against the LibDems and Labour. Do you think they migh actually collude at this. Nothing official, but just not putting up too much of a fight in selected seats. For instance, the SNP not being too active in the Southern Uplands and some of the Edinburgh seats and the Tories not putting up much of an effort in some of the Labour seats in the Central belt. Rather like labour and the Libdems in 1997.
202. Alan,
All the unionist parties are bricking it in Scotland now. The idea before was to take money away so as to put the kibosh on the SNP government. Their logic is that if the SNP don’t deliver its manifesto promises there will be a vote of no confidence and the minority government would fall - that’s not going to happen. Labour hated losing Holyrood and their plan was to take it back inside the term. They wouldn’t dare take down the most popular government anyone in Scotland can remember. There was a Labour councillor who said: “Thank God for the SNP government”. For the first time people in Scotland are actually interested in politics. Satisfactions levels are soaring. If you take that away you will be punished severely in the following election and the SNP would be returned with a much higher number of seats - closer to an outright majority.
Withholding council tax benefit is going to be a nightmare strategy for Labour. It is punishing Scotland for voting SNP and punishing the poorest especially - it has Gordon Brown written all over it too.
After Glasgow East, I suspect the tactic will change from starving Holyrood of funds to bribing and taking credit for it.
I think the Tories in Scotland are saying let’s wait and see. To be honest and with respect to Easterross, the opinion of the Tories are like the LibDems in England - the news sometimes covers them but not many really take notice. They are off the radar which in a way means they are not being scrutinised.
208. In the public sector it will become a duty and you know it, it already practically is.
In large organisations, that have an inbalance will have an assumption made that their organisation is institutionally racist, and will become part or union negotiations Employment tribunals will consider lack of such balancing activities to be a lack of due diligence in such issues.
People like yourself that justify bigotry are far more dangerous to society then the likes of Griffin and shave headed thugs in the national front.
204. Just as the non election became a prism for Brown the “3rd PM in 2 years” would become a prism for whoever gets the gig. Constituitionally there is no need for an election at all but politically the media would talk of nothing elese. they’d have to go early and say they were going early. otherwise no other message would get out. Its why i think they would be insane to ditch brown.it triggers an election they can’t win and can’t afford by next May at the latest.
Meanwhile John Prescott blogs:
I bet you never thought John Prescott would end up blogging but I felt this was the best way to talk to ordinary members at this important time.
writes former Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/7/27/84610/5977
4/165 NickP. “That will be why they gave him a standing ovation?”There is only one way of reading that comment - “If true, so why did they give him a standing ovation?”.Not truth NickP,spin, as always.
210. I can’t see the SNP going for this - the Labour betrayal of the Lib Dems after 1997 is an obvious counter argument. More likely is a general “Campaign like gentlemen” agreement - stick to the issues, not the death-to-the-other-lot stuff. Cameron might well offer a cabinet seat for the SNP - think beefed by Sec. Of. State For Scotland. *As a Tory*, I would suggest that the SNP take the line of negotiating a matching set of promises before the election, with delivery based on.. delivery, afterwards.
214 It’s only a year since party members, trade unions and MPs unanimously voted for Gordon to become our leader. Let me make this very clear - party members and the public will never forgive MPs and others who force Labour to go through another leadership election in less than two years.
What utter tosh! Get back to the day job, Johnnie.
214 great first comment by a Labourite
“by ACLB on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 02:15:23 PM GMT
“Not the Labour way”
So the Labour way is martyrdom, to go down with the ship?
Aye Captain!
Don’t you see that rearranging the deckchair won’t do any good, a new captain is the only hope, or half of us will be swallowed up by the Tory sea and the rest may end up floating away in lifeboats in divergent directions.
THIS IS VERY SERIOUS JOHN!”
212. I’m not sure I’d vote for it if I were an MP as I don’t believe in the senario. Equally tied candidates on a decent interview scoring system? How often does that happen? why not rerun it between both candidates witha tie breaker device ? and what about the middle class university educated black or woman getting preffered over the por, no o levels council estate white man who tied with them ?
However as a middle class white man i have won the lottery of life and the sugestion I’m in the process of being made a third class citizen is sily. much more so that it has anything to do with immigrants and natives.
210. Fernando,
There is no chance of that happening at all. The SNP will definately focus on marginals though. Perhaps there will be a focus on picking apart LibDem polcies in the run up to and during the campaign. The SNP and many LibDem supporters have not forgiven the Libs for not forming a coalition with the SNP in 2007. Since then the Libs have suffered a lot from bad strategies in the North East where their entire leadership comes from. Votes are migrating to the SNP there.
The truth is that the Tories don’t really have much to play for.
You mention Edinburgh. Ok, at the 2007 elections the position in the Edinburgh seats is this:
East Lothian - SNP second behind Labour.
Edinburgh central LibDem and SNP neck and neck for second place behind Labour.
Edinburgh East & Musselburgh - SNP won.
Edinburgh North and Leith - SNP and Libs neck and neck in second place behind Labour.
Edinburgh Pentlands - Labour and SNP neck and neck for second place with Tories the incumbents.
Edinburgh South - Tories in 4th place & SNP 3rd.
Edinburgh West is the only seat where the SNP and Tories are contending to beat the LibDem incumbent but the SNP is actually in second place.
I think the Tory position will improve from 1MP
but not by much. Again, the SNP rise will cause problems for them in some of their target seats.
Gabble MacShane’s comment piece in the Telegraph is a barely disguised attack on Brown. Basically too many Scots in Government, too distant from English interests. one sentence stands out:
“Citing Kennedy and Gertrude Himmelfarb, or worshipping a sex pest like Bill Clinton, sits ill with this English culture” - now which Scots politician could that be attacting?
Other bits thoughtful about the future of the UK but running through it is definite sense that now Gordon can’t deliver Scotland lets find a Labour Cameron to represent English Labour.
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
214. I had to re-read the Prescott statement three times to believe he actually said this:
“We have undoubtedly some very talented men and women. But with respect, none of them at the present moment, has anywhere near the skills and experience, nationally and internationally, to lead this great party and country as we tackle these unprecedented major global problems.”
So what Prescott is telling the “ordinary members” of his party at “this important time” is not only that Gordon Brown is by far the most able politician in the entire Labour Party, but that except for Brown, there is not a single person in the entire party that could be trusted to be Prime Minister. Is he paid by Cameron?
The Gordon Brown standing ovation - how many were forced to their feet by the thought that “this is the last time we will see him as party leader….maybe even in public….better send him off with a cheer”?
It must be a truly agonising choice for Labour MP’s. Knife Gordon now and lose half your colleagues; or wait until the economy worsens, the clamour becomes overwhelming and he goes in 6-9 months - but then you lose two thirds of your colleagues.
I still cannot see any scenario where Gordon leads Labour into the next election. There is just no way that a campaign could be devised around - “Gordon - five more years!” It will make 1983 look a close-run thing. So - if the inevitable is that you are going to get rid of him before the election, then bite the bullet. It can’t work out worse than keeping him in place. It just can’t.
208 Yellow Sub how do you measure that two candidates are ‘equal’ in qualification for the job?
The difficulty in that regard has led to a lot of what is in practice positive discrimination already in government organisations. The BBC recruitment of news casters is a case in point. All legal but not at all what most of the population thought it was all about.
The Harmon legislation will soon become a general provision as contractors for the government, so she says, will be monitored to ensure compliance.
So in practice the recruitment systems will be fair in so far as the recruitment criteria are concerned or rather as far as the department/quango/company wants to have it. But it will be easy to legally and legitimately skew the process to make sure the minority/female candidate comes out at least equal, and so the other white males will be rejected legally on the basis of their gender and race.
And such discrimination is abhorrent of itself let alone as a legal provision.
Additionally that provision will surely make discrimination cases by white/males more difficult to bring as the legislation will give an immediate defence unless the recruitment is so disorganised that the discrimination cannot be covered by the Harmon law.
211. Thanks for that, Alex, but I was hoping that I could get a Tory to answer - I’m sure there are some on pb.c.
220. I think the interesting point about the Edinburgh results in 2007 is that the Lib Dems managed to improve their position across Edinburgh despite the SNP onslaught which saw them losing votes elsewhere. Hopefully Edinburgh will be a Labour-free zone after 2010!
There’s a long way to go before 2010, though -
A leadership election for the Scottish Lib Dems,
A leadership election for Scottish Labour,
the Motherwell and Wishaw by-election,
Euro elections in 2009,
2 more budgets to get through Holyrood.
Yes, politics in Scotland is definitely interesting again!
224 however the alternative is a campaign by the Tories lambasting the inept Labour party for foisting an idiot on the nation and then having to replace him after just a year with the country on its knees financially and having to go to the country…. shambolic
Having said that, Brown will go… its just there is NO upside for Labour.
My opinion - safest option is to force Brown to call an election now on the ‘Who Rules’ basis - we face tough times, we n eed a new approach, we need a new mandate - then resign in the ensuing defeat and allow a new leader a clean slate.
227 Surely that “Who rules” election would be better done under the flag of Jack Straw? He would at least need a new mandate. Last time around, everyone knew it was vote Blair, get Brown. But no-one is going to vote for Labour whilst Brown is associated with its leadership. No-one. Probably won’t even get enough signatures to nominate a Labour candidate in some seats!
Brown is the most pro-English person in New Labour. Straw is a die hard anglophobe.
Is there not some danger to the SNP of being seen as too close to the Tories and a risk of a return of the Tartan Tory label from Labour and the Lib Dems? The SNP helped bring Labour down in 1979 and were severly punished by the electorate - losing 9 of their 11 seats.
The reason that Labour won’t budge on the leader issue yet, is Lisbon.
If there is to be a new leader, he/she will face pressure to go to the country. If they do and the Conservatives win the election, Cameron is committed to holding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This would be lost, and the Irish NO would be reinforced by an even more devastating British one.
If a new Labour leader is sought, and appointed, and he/she manages to avoid a General Election, the EU fear another possible outcome - a swing back to traditional Labour euroscepticism. If for example, Frank Field were to come to the fore as leader, backed by the Bennite wing, beating Straw and Miliband, Field would no doubt also call a referendum on Lisbon.
The EU is terrifed of these potential outcomes, and prefers to keep Brown in place until Lisbon is secured one way or the other, or at least to delay the process of dumping Brown while the potential pro-EU leaders establish a head of steam.
Brown-dumping is risky not for Labour, which might recover if Field were to make it as leader, and pull ahead of Cameron as a localiser of political decision-making, and cutter of wasteful government expenditure. It is the EU which wants to cling on to Brown as long as they can.
228 yes, true but if they are going straight away, why subject Straw to that - the shortest serving PM in history and the man that takes them into the night? Sack Brown, Straw gets it - calls election, gets siped out, resigns, new leader - how could a party like that who have also just lost their Scottish leader and probably their scottish dominance permanently expect anyone to vote for them again? If Straw got in unnopposed the public would massacre Labour - 2 foisted PMs, the second one being the foreign secretary that took us into Iraq?!
Could go that way but for me its Brown what done it, its Brown what takes the rogering - then they can wash their hands of the unpleasant cretin whom they have allowed to permanently hamstring them.
after a nice bath and a brisk walk around the block,time to return to the fray.
From reading the post’s today a consensus is being formed about our great leader.
1. Brown will not resign willingly and would have to be forced out.
2. The PLP havent got the guts to face Brown and demand that he resign.
3. The manouvering by cabinet colleague’s will end in the usual nimby fadeout.
4. We have got another 22 months of misery and lunacy, while Britain goes down the drain.
After all that whats the future for Nick Clegg, who must be hiding somewhere. Hope it’s not Southwold!
:):)
231.
You don’t need to be a full-fledged conspiracy theorist for much of what Tapestry says to be right. The bruvvers will be supplying the money and having a large say in things; there are a lot of them with no love for the EU to start with, and certainly a considerable dislike of much of the current modernising legislation coming up.
When will betting on the 2009 European elections open?
At this time of year I think everyone is thinking of a holiday. Although some people do important jobs and work in the summer.
What a plonker, what a tool, what an out of touch, economy ruining, deceitful, stupid, unpleasant, aggressive failure.
Congratulations Labour - well done on allowing this fool to become your leader, congratulations on supporting him depsite the poll meltdown, well done on backing his policies to tax the rich and imprison people without charge, well done on continuing to support him despite overwhelming evidence that he is destroying you painfully from within.
Labour, you are worse than him, you put him there, you left him there, you are keeping him there today. You deserve the nightmare that is coming.
Witan, its deeply problematic as I set out at 219. I just don’t think attempts to addres fairly well established tructural inequalities in Britian should be debated in terms of immigrants and natives (not that you did!)
Give that we already have GOQ provisions for some posts i think the particular harman proposal here will back fire. Its why i have never quite supported all women short lists in the LD’s despite it working well when we did it for MEP selections.
231 Brown, puppet of the EU, left dangling long enough to do their bidding. Nice meme…
232 But without Brown fronting the election, Labour’s night might not be so dark.
Anyway, off to see another Dark Knight….
236 should read ‘tax the poor’ lolololol I ruined my own rant, drat it!
238 - they could put anyone they like up there now, its too late
231. But do Labour heavyweights care so much about the EU that they would see their party risk destruction just to see Lisbon go through? I think it’s unlikely. The backbenchers also would seem more likely to be motivated by a desire to retain their seats rather than by any desire to sacrifice them for the EU.
236- dyed-you appear to be a particularly unpleasant chap yourself.
Gordon Brown has achieved much more in his life than all the nasty anonymous nobodies who post on this site combined.
222. Denis MacShane’s essay is a self-serving disgrace. He dribbles on about “time to listen to the English” when he was a prime mover in forcing the unwanted EU Constitution down English throats, when it was plainly apparent the English were saying No.
“Listen to the English”? They didn’t even let us speak.
MacShane is a F***ing Traitor. Like the rest of ‘em. I hope Labour are destroyed forever.
bring on harperson - she’ll do a fine job of finishing off labour for good
243 so do i
233. Nick Clegg looks like a chubby David Cameron but Clegg has even worse poll ratings than Brown and Labour! Certainly it is bad news for the LD’s if they cannot even get level with Labour at Labour nadir!
Maybe Clegg should get on his bike to shed a few lbs!
246 His bike might get stolen!
242. Yes, you’re right: Gordon Brown has helped to fracture the UK, cripple the economy, immiserate the poor, destroy race relations, invade a foreign country, kill half a million people, and generally sell the nation out to the EU in a rancid and disgusting betrayal of his government’s manifesto promise.
That’s more than any of us could hope to do in a dozen lifetimes.
233. yes on 1-4.
236, 242; the evidence seems to be with 236.
Sky news mentioned Turncoats in the last 5 minutes. Do they mean defections or people who were Brown supporters previously knifing him?
242 You’re the pot calling the kettle black again, tyson. You appear only to come on this site to make childish ad hominem attacks on posters with whom you disagree and then to bore us with the tedious minutiae of your dreary life in all-white, petit-bougeois North Oxford.
What time will the you go leak if its due tommorrow ? any word on any post Glasgow commissioned polls ? I would have thought any paper with an anti labour agenda would have commisioned one just to feed the frenzy.
Original quote @ 10 - “In better days, a Brown speech to the Labour faithful might have been punctured by a dozen standing ovations. This half-hour address received just one ripple of applause before the end. And that was only after Tom Watson, a burly Cabinet Office minister, stood up and ostentatiously began clapping, forcing the rest to follow.”
165 - Nick P - “mirthios - I’ve read the quotes carefully, and they don’t in fact deny the ovation. They say there used to be lots of ovations for Tony, and that it was only when someone “lumbered” to his feet that the others followed.”
Tony?
Lumbered?
Yellow Sub - Lib Dems never had “all women shortlists” for Euro selections. It was “zipped” list (ie Woman - Man - Woman…. etc down the list)
francis - So if Jack Straw is an English - hater, who do you reckon he loves? I am sorry I haven’t got time to analyse the detail of you and sean t’s silly Europhobe diatribes. We have now had months, probably years of the drip fed hatred.
Yellow Sub we are, then, at least on the same sheet of music if not quite in tune.
251 - haute bourgeois, please!
Prescott now out supporting Brown…….. surely that is the kiss of death
What’s going on in the UK???
“Grandmother arrested on race charges after telling rowdy Asian students to ‘go home’”
“After being woken for the third time in one night by a group of drunken and noisy students, Jo Calvert-Mindell was at her wits’ end.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1038285/Grandmother-arrested-race-charges-telling-rowdy-Asian-students-home.html
233 - In essence, you and Nick Palmer are saying the same thing
, and you are both right: Brown will stay until 2010. Labour just don’t do ‘defenestration’.
230. The danger is more to the Scottish Tories. Apart from, obviously, the Union there is little to divide them.
The SNP quietly moved to the right pre-2007, becoming more pro-business and dropping ‘lefty’ policies such as re-regulating buses and writing off councils’ housing debt.
With the left-wing tag gone, the SNP are replacing the Tories as the contenders to the Lib Dems and Labour in places such as Argyll, Stirling, Gordon and North Ayrshire.
As I suggest earlier a new leader could blame mistakes on the past, but they could not deny some of the fundamental stuff, like Lisbon.
But cocckups like the 10p tax fiasco and the car tax mess would at least resonate.
If Lisbon proved difficult then a referendum could be promised on any other constitutional changes however small.
This plus noises about not removing all benefits from those on incapacity benefit and keeping the same system might be enough to secure the core Labour vote and avoid a complete disaster.
It won’t convince the majority of the electorate who probably will not believe Labour electoral promises for some time to come, but moving to the core and securing 28% of the vote will ensure that Labour lives to fight another day with enough MPs to rebuild with.
Can they really expect anything more. The economic situation will not improve quickly enough to swing voters in general, and in any case there is now every sign that the majority have made up their minds and once that happens, as the Tories found, any improvement in the economy pays no electoral dividends.
The Labour party must move to damage limitation mode as the first step to recovery.
254. You are quite right. Some regions had to have a woman at the top of there lists. From memory it was only in the south west that we expectd to get more than one MEP on a list in 1999 ( and the exception to the rule ironically. was it candy piercy ? who beat both sitting MEP’s in the members ballot but got third because of protction for the sitting male MEP’s) so the effect was a 50/50 split in representation.
By correcting me you have allowed me to make my point better. the party reluctantly introduced positive discrimination for new posts ( well not entirely new but we were much more likely to get people elected under d’hont PR) but has balked for sitting MP’s because much more is at stake. where we had sitting MEP protection was put in.
231. As a Europhile, I would love it if Labour felt the need to sacrifice themselves for the cause of European integration (although I would be rather wary if Lisbon was really worth it). I’m pretty sure Lisbon is not their priority, though. Even the much more naturally pro-European parties of continental Europe were always more than willing to put Europe last when it became an electoral liability, and Labour was never passionate about Europe (Blair perhaps was, because he wanted to be its president).
Still, there are certainly leaders of EU countries who would like to see Brown hang on. Merkel and Sarkozy certainly lack the imagination and dedication to face the truth that what worked in the Europe of 15 simply does not work anymore. However, even they should be realistic enough to see that Britain’s stance won’t matter much for Lisbon if Ireland votes “No” again before it even comes to a British referendum. And I cannot quite see why anyone in Ireland should change their minds on the sole basis that Sarkozy will otherwise look foolish on television (in fact that’s a great argument for repeating the show).
Europe is deeply divided and in disarray, the leaders of France and Germany have no emotional relation to Europe and will not fight for it. If they did make their case, that would inevitably be seen as proof of a conspiracy in Britain. Looks like the Labour Party will have to cope without the support of the Elders of Brussels this time around.
Even without a referendum, Lisbon is dead. Equally dead is New Labour’s bloodless support for the EU. Whatever is left of the Labour Party will soon enough turn to euro-skepticism.
242 when it comes to Brown I am very unpleasant - he is ruining the country in my opinion so I am not going to hold back. However, whats your point? He has wrecked the economy, I never managed that in my life for sure.
I stand by all the descriptions, none of which I think are particularly controversial. I have nothign against you Tyson, you are neither Gordon Brown nor one of his MPs keeping him on power - but if you support him you deserve the polling misery that will result from it.
258
And also: Racist Baby
“Toddlers who dislike spicy food ‘racist’
Toddlers who turn their noses up at spicy food from overseas could be branded racists by a Government-sponsored agency. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/education/2261307/Toddlers-who-dislike-spicy-food-racist,-say-report.html
It is now clear that no-one is prepared to challenge GB and the loyalists are rallying around. This is absolutely wonderful news for the conservatives. The Labour slide continues.. LDs are goin nowhere fast and DC will be absolutely delighted. The perfect storm continues…..
Prescott - Brown will come back renewed and refleshed! New flesh, new face….. hahahaha classic Prescott
Prescott has very helpfully totally rubbished all the alternatives - it just keeps getting better:)
269. Obviously Prescott is aiming to get himself on Brown’s departure honours list!
265: Wouldn’t be surprised if the newspaper just made that up. Note the quote they pick about food says nothing about racism.
264- dyed- in politics it is actually quite easy to slide into despising the other side personally.
Apart from the odd exceptions (i.e the Wintertons on a bad day) the political parties are inhabited by decent, well meaning, ambitious, and very able folk- they gravitate into politics because they are able and intelligent, and those that become MP’s and ministers are the cream of the crop.
Gordon Brown is clearly an exceptional individual. Like Cameron, Blair, Hague, Ken Clarke, Chaz Kennedy, and the very few others who have had the ability to operate at this level. They are all honourable men whose aspiration is to improve the lot of the many. They disagree (slightly) on policy (getting less), and presentation.
The level of personal invective, mainly by people who do this anonymously is completely out of all proportion to the facts, and does often fall into unpleasantness.
267. Prescott also showed why Blair never let him near an economic department - Prescott cannot count. He said “Labour MP’s should be campaigning for a fourth term not a fourth leader!
Brown’s replacement would be the third asumingBlair was the first!
Has the GE been called yet???!
258 - She told Asian students to ‘go back to where you came from’.
This phrase is (a) generally known as a racist phrase, and (b) grammatically clumsy (’get back to the place from whence you came’ would avoid the preposition at the end of the sentence
She says she meant (because they were students) to return to their home towns where their parents live, and even if you believe her, I can see how the sgnature phrase of racism might have been construed. Without any view on whether to say that *should* be a matter for the police, I can see why this got attention once reported. The police can’t ignore reports of racist outbursts at present, because it would re-enforce a belief (which I do not share) that they are institutionally racist.
Conversely, the babies/spicy food/NCB story is shocking awful, and epitomises everything that is wrong with public policy at the moment.
Afternoon all.
WRT Harriet Harman as Labour Leader, I think that she is a long way to the Left of the average voter, and for that reason, would be toxic to Labour’s chances. I just don’t see her appealing to anyone other than Left wing voters, i.e. about 25 per cent of the total. If Ken Livingstone, with similar political beliefs, couldn’t win London, she’s not going to win the country.
66 Party ID polls almost always show Labour ahead. But this is meaningnless, once you allow for better turnout among the richer and older voters who vote Conservative.
271.
That argument may not be without a certain level of truth. If there is some truth in it, then the MPs behaviour over expenses, voting for John Lewis lists etc. is very hard to explain.
The onus is now on MPs to show that they do not have their snouts in the trough.
Are you perhaps David Marshall?
If Harman, Straw and Miliband (D) are the final three, Mike is correct that Harman makes it to the final two.
If against Miliband, I think she wins - the old guard are not ready to hand over yet, and the Left knows this is its last chance to wrest the party away from ever-more-Blairism.
If against Straw, I think the Primrose Hill Pact will rally around - disciplined defeat, rebuild under a new leader, without Harriet Harman dooming the party through the period that they expect to be in control. A Straw victory just delays their leadership, a Harman victory could be a poisoned chalice.
To those doubters of an ongoing coup, here’s Ben Brogan
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/07/from-my-deckcha.html
“For the next few weeks treat any declarations of loyalty, appeals for calm, strictures against plotting, etc with the scepticism they deserve. The game’s afoot, September will be messy, and all tongues are forked.”
275 Morus,
“This phrase is (a) generally known as a racist phrase, and (b) grammatically clumsy (’get back to the place from whence you came’ would avoid the preposition at the end of the sentence”
ARRRRRGH …. “from whence” ….. ARRRRRGH.
And this in a sentence babbling on about grammatical clumisness.
As discussed ad nauseam, the Labour party leadership rules appear to have been designed with the express intention of preventing coups.
i) 70 Labour MPs would have to nominate someone not in the current cabinet. Who, and what would be the point?
ii) Conference would have to agree to an election, on a card vote.
iii) The nominee would have to defeat Brown in the electoral college.
Any one of these steps is unlikely; all three happening in sequence is vanishingly unlikely…
One might argue that a member of the current cabinet might resign to permit them to be nominated under scenario i). But again the question must be asked: Who? and Why? No plausible policy differences could be cited, meaning that such a candidacy would be driven by naked ambition, and doomed from the start. The People’s party believe politics is about policies, not personalities, and the blood-letting that would ensue means that the eventual winner (again, most likely Brown) would inherit a wasteland…
The only realistic scenario is to “persuade” Brown to resign for the good of the party. He may ultimately do so, but not for a long while yet. A direct challenge is virtually impossible for the reasons stated above…
Sean @ 243,
Be fair, at least MacShane constructs a reasonably graceful argument, no matter how thin and poorly grounded, in contrast to the amorphous special pleading from Mary Riddell on the opposite page.
WRT the Equality Bill, I think it is practically unsustainable to say that employers *may* apply reverse discrimination, but aren’t required to. I think it’s pretty clear that employment tribunals will come to view employers at fault if women and ethnic minorities are statistically underrepresented among their workforce (I wonder if the reverse assumption will apply) and certainly the government will expect its contractors to carry out reverse discrimination,
272 - I fully agree, but in the not too recent past you have been pretty personally scathing about Cameron. But all is forgiven: happens to all posters exposed to the calming influence of the pbc collective. You have been transformed into a soft, fluffy, richly luxuriant and signally agreeable pu$$y cat.
I think Straw is very clearly waiting to go. Like a race dog quiverring to be released in a dog race!
Watching Sky news i note he (Straw) was delibratly posing for the Camaramen (Flash typse camaran i.e. Newspapers) - he then realised that a TV camara saw him do that: you could tell from the expression on his face. Straw obviously believes in wearing his Sunday Best as well!
He is so blatently waiting for lift off, it’s unreal. What will he do resign tommorow or tell Brown his had it and stay in post?
People like Caroline Flint are going to look very stupid after what they have said today!
Who is that stupid female Labour MP with a North West acent by the way? She obviously does not do Brains!
279- test- it looks like Labour MP’s have come to the conclusion that even a hideous blood letting is a more preferable option than the unthinkable alternative- i.e keeping Gordon and walking over the trenches to the next GE.
The up and coming Labour leadership election will be the most exciting political event since Thatcher’s regicide.
As I posted here the day before Glasgow East- Gordon’s end game is now in play.
Is there not enough Equal Opps legislation now? Why do we need more?
286 Labour are not like that - I used to be in them years ago, silly me.
242 Anyone who thinks it isnt Brown’s fault is deluding themselves. There is collective responsibility of course, but Brown let borrowing by the banks get out of control,( what were the FSA and the Bank of England doing) we had a unsustainable boom based on borrowed money, both by Govt and the individual that has resulted in the credit crunch, the crash in house prices, rise in inflation and a huge hole in the PSBR. Now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Brown thought he was a miracle worker, he isnt, and he is now paying for screwing up the economy. Its going to get a lot lot worse before it gets any better.
280 - whoops! That is a clanger! I was planning to write ‘from where’ then changed my mind. Sorry Gwynfa…!
O/T Doesn’t Glasgow East have a large muslim population around the football ground? Muslims in Scotland are known to be SNP voters! Could that be why the SNP won?
286 tyson: remember ‘Gordon is a spanner!’ so its time for him to go!!!
284-john o- even in my most vitriolic days of class warfare leveled against DC, I did throw him the odd platitudes. Charisma, charm, capability, competence.
3 events have warmed me to DC this week;
-the bike- although I do have a nagging doubt that he manipulated this one for the cameras (lefty paranoia);
-the CD collection for Obama- can just picture Barack flicking on “Heaven knows I am miserable now” by the Smiths;
-a conversation with a health colleague who has some connections with the family
But I am finding myself becoming ever more warmer to Gordon because of his personal plight. In adversity and all that
272 Hi Tyson, good to see you in your sweetness and light mode once again.
Just arrived back from a shopping expedition with “Her Indoors” to downtown Huddersfield, which was a truly shocking experience.
In the main (Kingsgate) centre, and then onto Boots, M&S etc., the town was deserted. If this continues for any sustained period, we are going to see many household names going out of business before the year is out.
Unlike most other enterprises, the retail trade cannot readily turn off its major costs, and is stuck with high rents and rates, etc. Even its payroll costs can only be reduced by closing down branches, which may only add to the problem.
Hold on for a very, very bumpy ride.
I really want Harman as Prime Minister - a white male hater will really unite the country.
293 - Can one libel a newspaper? Over at Guido’s (yes, I know!)there’s talk of some speculation about the Mirror’s possible role in the Great Velocipede Robbery. And the paper does have form on this kind of stuff, doesn’t it? Say no more….
294 it’s total economic wipeout and its all gordon’s fault!
295 but if gordon stays as leader maybe it will be 0 seats in england for labour!!!!
294. Sure it was not because it’s a nice day?
Huddersfield does not seem to get that busy on a sunday anyway, i don’t think! Having said that i don’t go to any of the pubs down town anymore! I would rather come on her with some cans!
At least you don’t have to worry about being attacked, taxi fares home if it is late at night or anything like that! Plus one can scoff as much curry as you like and read the newspapers online!
In his many rants in “Downfall” Hitler says that the German people do not deserve to survive, that they have failed him by losing the war and must perish.
The “bunker” similarities get stronger. Brown will soon start to believe that every one of his previously loyal and trusted lieutenants is out to betray him.
Remember Brown has the power to advise HM tomorrow morning to dissolve Parliament and call an immediate election on the basis that, if he is going down, the Party who have failed him by losing so many elections (and it’s clearly not HIS fault!!) does not deserve to survive and he’ll take the whole whining shower with him.
He could then immediately retire (before the election) leaving the Party leaderless, rudderless, flat broke and up Dross Creek without a paddle between them.
281. With all due respect, Rod, this is more bollocks. If the Labour party decides that Brown is leading them to total disaster (which he is) and that any alternative couldn’t be worse and might be better (also true) they won’t let Rule 758 (b), subsection 76/f, get in the way of What Must Be Done.
A means will be found. Gordon will be shown the silken noose and the bottle of armagnac. Or perhaps the bottle of Asda Paracetamol and crate of Newcastle Brown, given the premier’s austere convictions.
Politics is the art of the possible, after all, and Labour nixing Brown is now a serious possibility.
294- Peter from Putney- thanks.
You may be interested in the tennis later- Nadal is at 1.09 to lay against Kiefer. I do not think Keifer will win, but he may well take a set, or even play out a couple of even games when Nadal’s odds will undoubtedly move out allowing for a quick return. Relatively low risk betting to lay with these kind of odds. I have laid 300- exposing me to the sum of 27 notes.
BTW- why has Barack moved out to 1.45+ on betfair?
Three options then for Labour -
Brown goes, new leader calls a GE. Labour lose heavily.
Brown goes, new leader fails to call a GE. Enraged electorate ensure Labour is nuked at the polls in 18 months.
Brown stays. Labour vapourised into Atoms in 18 months, never to be seen again.
(There is actually a fourth option which involves cancelling the next General Election on the grounds of some fabricated ‘National Emergency’, and staying in power. At that point it’s probably pitchforks and piano wire, with Whitehall in flames).
Whichever way, droids like Palmer are screwed. They’ll go for option three and milk the system of cash for all they can, until they’re finally obliterated. These people have no interest in the Labour Party or The UK now - it’s all about lining their pockets to pay for life outside government.
298 Martin - perhaps we will hear the experiences of others.
Personally, I’ve never experienced anything like it - large retail stores such as Boots with only a handful of (potential) shoppers inside - in fact many more staff than customers.
As regards shopping trends, Sunday has become established as easily the second busiest day of the week.
302 ‘cancelling the next General Election’
Its Labour’s only chance!
If you can outline a plausible scenario, I’m all ears…
303- peter- surely they are all having barbecues. Not a great day for shopping.
Yes, Straw is definetly waiting to go!
Why would he pose for pictures on a sunday morning if he was not?
These pictures will be splashed more than likely on tommorrows front pages. It is giving him momentum! I wonder if he has a grid lined up?
Barack- now 1.49 to lay on betfair? Why?
The day after meeting Brown Obama’s odds on becoming president drop by over 10% on betfair. Now what does that say?
301 I think Obama returned home to some negative press as regards his recent globe-trotting. He can’t win, had he not done this trip he would have been accused of being totally ignorant of foreign affairs!
What time does the tennis start, sounds interesting? Either this evening or tomorrow, I shall be posting my nap footy bet for the coming season - watch out for it.
272
My life sometimes collpases into unpleasantness Tyson - I blame the government for that where I see them at fault. They reap what they sow. I am sure many labour or most labour MPs are perfectly honourable altough the evidence re Lisbon etc throws that into doubt but I also find them inept at running the country and responsible for certain discomforts in my life - as such my invectice is both likely, and understandable. I pay them to make my life and the life of my fellow subjects better - my judgement is that they have failed in that charge and are led by a man who is not fit for purpose who bears personal responsibility for the state of the economy. If I lapse into snide comment now and again at their expense so be it - and my annonymity is irrelevant, I do not have the media fawning all over me for my opinion like they do - I do not have an on-tap spin machine. Places like this are an outlet for outrage as well as their more formal purpose - which is healthy in a democracy - without an outlet we would be boiling over under the surface.
Telegraph looks at the next election…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2462181/How-the-political-map-of-Britain-could-change.html
309- 6.30 tonight. On sky, but you can watch on betfair video feeds as well which are slightly faster than the TV if you want to be really sad. Tennis is turning into my 2nd most lucrative form of betting behind footie, and then politics.
Keifer is genuinely having something of a resurgence and I think Nadal’s odds may well move out beyond 1.08 at some point tonight
Which big names do we expect to be jobseeking after the next general election?
313 all labour MPs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When Gordy was annointed and England thought they had a new heavywight saviour, I knew that he was weird and heading to oblivion.
He hid in the shadows at the treasury. He has influence over the establishment in Scotland as was shown by the sycophantic drooling that the Church of Scotland recently met him with despite his record on war and Trident.
Gordy likes to fix things behind close doors (with newspaper editors, trade union barons and bankers) then mouth platitudes to the multitudes. He’s a soviet style fixer but his main problem is a very Scottish presbyterian one - he believes in his historic calling. Gordon thinks that no-one else matters nor understands and his psychology is like those old absolutist monarchists who thought they had a direct connection with the divine one. The party and the Union is secondary to his calling and he will bring them both down with him. When someone has a direct link to God then he can’t be wrong. The word of God can’t be criticised or diluted. Gordy’s apostles are from the same ilk - the Alexander sublings justify their dogma through their rightiousness too. Douglas spent his by-election appearance on tv attacking the SNP for bringing down his sister’s leadership of Scottish Labour as though it was a violation of God’s own law.
There was a time when he was less distanced from reality. He does actually have friends but even they don’t understand why he’s gone off on such a tangent. When younger he had beliefs - can anyone tell me what he stands for now except his own job? Since becoming PM he has withdrawn into himself even further. He can’t take the heat, real life is out to get him.
Some Blairite not so long ago said that Gordon was “pyschologically flawed”. That was when I first thought that the English were starting to smell the coffee. My real concern about Brown is that he may want to get his revenge in in advance. He can take us to war and he has his finger on the button after all.
PM? Na but maybe the villain pyschopath in a Bond movie.
311. Why does Melissa Kite say that strategists would use a 10% swing?
If Straw goes on a 10% swing, then his smart suit is for an interview about a directorship.
313. Far too early to say.
315.
Alex in Madrid. My own analogy has been with Capt. Ahab (rather than Jonah). Monomania the technical term, but ‘getting on with the job’ is chasing the white whale.
On the Crosby-Textor marginals poll:
Having tried to do marginals polls in the old days with Harris I would say that this needs to be considered with many caveats.
First, it is difficult to find socio-economic and other variables for such an unusual set to target the sample and weight to.
Second, polling Lib Dem held seats is very hard at this stage as the MPs tend to have a large personal vote which is not reflected when party lables alone are given. I would expect it to be much harder for the Conservatives to gain seats from the LDs than from Labour, for this reason, also because of tactical voting which does not figure as much in mid-term polls. This is one case when applying uniform swings is less likely to work.
Third, as Anthony Wells says on his site, the closest seats last time are not in actually the key ones which will be close next time, or are needed for the Tories even to be the largest party, never mind whether they would win an overall majority (im a hypothetical election now, which there isn’t going to be).
Finally, in fact I doubt the value of polling in marginals, despite the logic, as they do not tend to behave very differently as a set, and even if they do, it’s very hard to measure accurately in anything other than an exit poll (which is beased on marginals at general election time). Overall, just like byelection results are not good guides to potential swings, the best evidence at present is the standard national polls.
310- dyed- do you think the situation would be massively different under the Tories? After all govt policy is responsible for about 1% of what happens, and the rest is market led. We are living in a liberal, capitalist, globalised economy last time I looked.
Brown was stupid to think that he had conquered boom and bust. Believed his own propoganda. And for that silly arrogance he is paying the price somewhat.
The thing about govt borrowing is all spurious anyway. We managed to come out of WW11 with a national debt a zillion times bigger than this one. So a few extra billion is really a p in the ocean now.
And health and education spending would have increased under the Tories. With prosperity comes greater demands from politicians for services
302 EdP
Nick is not a droid, and he actually gave up a very well paid job in Switzerland to become an MP. To say he doesn’t care about the UK and the Labour Party and is milking things is silly.
francis,
“O/T Doesn’t Glasgow East have a large muslim population around the football ground? Muslims in Scotland are known to be SNP voters! Could that be why the SNP won?”
No, the Muslim population is mostly in Glasgow Govan which had a strong SNP follong before the Muslim vote came over to the SNP. The Muslim vote migrated from Labour largely because of the war surprise surprise.
315 Spot on, Alex! Brown really is quite deranged aswell as being a thoroughly nasty piece of work. Thank God for us all that he’s also inherently incompetent otherwise he’d be really dangerous.
#258
Has the MSM (or their picture-editors) finally got the message…?
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Gordon-Brown-John-Prescott-Calls-On-Labour-MPs-To-End-The-Plots-To-Topple-The-Prime-Minister/Article/200807415057557?lpos=Politics_0&lid=ARTICLE_15057557_Gordon%2BBrown%253A%2BJohn%2BPrescott%2BCalls%2BOn%2BLabour%2BMPs%2BTo%2BEnd%2BThe%2BPlots%2BTo%2BTopple%2BThe%2BPrime%2BMinister
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7527725.stm
Remoing a LD leader is quite difficult in the party of Philadelphia lawyers. Didn’t stop the Parliamentry party dragging Kennedy and Ming out of Cowley Street and shooting them in the street. If Labour want Brown out then he’ll go. 24 hour news will see to that.
On the topic of retail. Our local bus company has just introduced an unscheduled 10% price rise. I went to our local independent supermarket and sainsburys local the other day for three of my staples. An organic whole meal loaf, 6 free range eggs and some very ordinary basmati rice. all up 8%,10% and 10% respectively over night. people are broke.
Interestingly the brown crisis is leading the 6music news ( which shows how serious it is. ) The item is a derranged Precott defending Brown (which shows how much **** he is.)
315 - ‘and he has his finger on the button after all.’
There is no ‘button’ as such, and fortunately for us, those at the end of the chain of command with the power to unleash Armageddon from the Trident submarines are very conscious of the destructive powers they control. Whilst I’m sure they would release those weapons ‘without question’ should a legitimate reason arise, they would not be prepared to allow their families back home to be vaporised in retaliation for the actions of a PM who had lost leave of his or her senses.
The men in white coats would be visiting No 10.
Whilst I’m no fan of Gordon Brown, the sheer vitriol displayed in posts like 315 is off-putting.
Brown is not a psychopath Bond villain.
Brown has suffered a serious eye injury, and has lost a child. He has had personal misfortune, and much political misfortune. Brown is much more the fall-guy, the patsy - as Blair walks off into the sunset with million dollar book deals and 3 record-breaking election wins.
Brown is a sad figure, but he is not an evil one.
325 “Interestingly the brown crisis is leading the 6music news”
As I noted this morning the clamour to ditch Brown is getting a real head of steam behind it. I think certain senior Labour figures, aswell as many of the minions, really are going to go for the big push this time. He’ll be out within 3 months, and probably sooner IMO
321. NickP betrayed his electors over the Lisbon referendum.
In 2004 he voted against a referendum.
In 2005 he told everyone he really wanted a referendum coz they were really good, and he was glad it was a manifesto promise etc
In 2007 he decided he didn’t want a referendum, f*** the manifesto, screw the people etc.
Then he came on here and lied about all this.
What does that tell you? He may have once been a “decent bloke”, indeed I’m sure he still is somewhere - deep down - but quite frankly as a Labour politician he is a conniving, careerist liar, with the taint of treachery - but that’s what Labour MPs are generally like, so no surprise. Remember they voted for Iraq. THEN REFUSED US AN INQUIRY.
Tyson is wrong. Politicians are not generally nice, decent people. They are ugly, ambitious scumbags in the main - and this particular bunch of Labour skunks is an especially loathsome crew, as you can add treachery and incompetence to their lengthy list of sins.
Go on Labour, f*** off. EVERYONE WANTS YOU TO GO NOW.
315. Brian SJ, Maybe you’re right, interesting. I think Ahab’s just lost another leg:O) This is turning into Python’s Black Knight.
re 329. Boring.
327 Nothing personal G, but you’re too soft by half, and more than a bit naive if you really believe what you’ve posted.
331 re 329 Hear, hear!! (or is it here, here?)
321, 329
This conversation needs to be seen in a betting context. One of the lessons from Glasgow East was that this vitriolic dislike of Labour came as a complete surprise to the party hierarchy. So far as I can see, it is still seriously discounted. The analogy with the Canadian party going from government to 2 seats may be closer than many ’strategists’ talking to Melissa Kite appreciate.
327 - Twoddle
Do you really think that suffering personal and physical misfortune excuses an individual from being evil?
334 Absolutely! Even after four recent election disasters there’s still some people underestimating the massive, and still growing, levels of visceral loathing for all things Labour that exists across the country.
331/333 stop bullying poor SeanT!!!
WE HATE LABOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!
332 Voxpop, just teasing you with my softness.
Of course, I do understand that Gordon has been conducting secret experiments deep underground in his bunker to develop a terrifying new explosive.
And, Gordon is now going to detonate it to cause the atmosphere to catch fire and render the planet uninhabitable.
evening all, back from hospital visiting and caught up on all the posts since midday.
I was not suggesting there would be any agreement, formal or informal between the Scottish Tories and the SNP prior to the GE. Both parties will fight every seat but each has its main targets and with few exceptions like Argyll (LD) and Stirling (Lab) they will not really be head to head in trying to unseat the Lab or LD incumbent.
I disagree that the Scots Tories get little publicity. There is hardly an evening when either Annabel Goldie is reported on or Bill Aitken is talking about Law and Order. As we get closer to the GE, if David Cameron looks like heading towards a landslide in England then on BBC Scotland and STV more pressure will be placed on the Scottish Tories.
Let’s be realistic here. The SNP will be looking for around 14-20 gains, the Tories between 4 and 10 with 6 being a more realistic estimate.
Ironically in the way that the Scottish LibDems always did better because their vote was more regionalised and therefore much higher in 2 or 3 areas than their national polling figures suggested so now for the Scottish Tories they have strengthened in a handful of regions.
Remember in 1997 they were wiped out at Westminster in Scotland and Holyrood’s PR system has given them a way back.
In 2005 the votes were:
Party Logo Votes % % change Candidates Seats Change
Labour 907,249 38.87 % - 4.40 % 59 40 (- 15)
Liberal Democrats 528,076 22.63 % + 6.29 % 59 11 (+ 1)
Scottish National Party 412,267 17.66 % - 2.40 % 59 6 (+ 1)
Conservative & Unionist 369,388 15.83 % +0.25 % 59 1 (+ 0)
In 1999-2007 it was as below and you can see by 2007 it had changed dramatically (accepting the turnout was lower than in 2005)
Scottish National Party
6 th May 1999 Constituency 672,757 28.74 % 7 35
Regional 638,644 27.26 % 28
1 st May 2003 Constituency 449,476 23.77 % 9 27
Regional 399,659 20.86 % 18
3 rd May 2007 Constituency 664,227 32.93 % 21 47
Regional 633,401 31.02 % 26
Labour
6 th May 1999 Constituency 908,392 38.81 % 53 56
Regional 786,818 33.64 % 3
1 st May 2003 Constituency 659,879 34.89 % 46 50
Regional 561,379 29.30 % 4
3 rd May 2007 Constituency 648,374 32.15 % 37 46
Regional 595,415 29.16 % 9
Conservative & Unionist
6 th May 1999 Constituency 364,225 15.56 % 0 18
Regional 359,109 15.35 % 18
1 st May 2003 Constituency 312,598 16.53 % 3 18
Regional 296,929 15.50 % 15
3 rd May 2007 Constituency 334,743 16.60 % 4 17
Regional 284,005 13.91 % 13
Liberal Democrat
6 th May 1999 Constituency 331,279 14.15 % 12 17
Regional 290,760 12.43 % 5
1 st May 2003 Constituency 286,150 15.13 % 13 17
Regional 225,774 11.78 % 4
3 rd May 2007 Constituency 326,232 16.17 % 11 16
Regional 230,671 11.30 % 5
For the Scottish Tories, the fact they now run 1 council as a minority administration, run 2 other councils as the largest party in coalitions and are in coalition in 6 other councils as well as being joint largest party in a 10th council where they are the opposition means that they once again have a substantial grass roots powerbase where it matters.
The Scottish Tories are not going to win seats in Glasgow or Lanarkshire or Fife or other areas where they have virtually no councillors if any at all, but in the areas where the half dozen or so seats they do have realistic prospects in, the councils they are running or have a hand in running are located. Local Government was traditionally the LibDem’s route to Westminster success and now it may prove to be the Tories way back.
Similarly for the SNP, in many of the former Labour heartland areas, they had no local authority base but in many areas incorporating their target seats, they now run the councils or have a big role in them. Des Browne the Defence Secretary’s seat is a perfect example. AT Holyrood the SNP took the Kilmarnock seat last year which is the bulk of Des Browne’s seat and they also took as a minority East Ayrshire council which is based in Kilmarnock.
On the other hand, the Scottish LibDems, while increasing their overall number of councillors as did the SNP and Tories, they lost large numbers of councillors in their key territories.
Aberdeen City: down from 20 to 15
Aberdeenshire: down from 28 to 24
East Dunbartonshire: lost the council and fell from 12 to just 3
Inverclyde: lost the council and fell from 13 to just 4
and in places like Fife they fell back slightly, Argyll they fell back slightly though have since picked up 1 seat in a by-election, Edinburgh they picked up and have some hopes of capturing Edinburgh South and in Highland they rose from 13 to 21 but they already hold all 3 Westminster seats.
Labour lost well over 100 councillors due to the change of system from FPTP to STV and fell to control of just Glasgow and North Lanarkshire but as Glasgow East proved, if their opponents can get councillors elected in an area identified with a parliamentary seat, that new local base can lead to greater things.
326. I always thought the “button” was a secure fax signal from RAF Northwood? Anyway the PM is not Commander in Chief. he would just “authorise” their use. The Chief of Defence Staff and the submarine commanders would be quite entitled to say there use wasn’t military justified for half an hour while he was carted off to the hague for attempted genocide. In extremis the head of state can instantly dismiss him any way.
Up thread it was suggested that he may cancel the election. I (thnk) i’m right in aying that the Lords consent to extend a parliamentary term is explicitly reserved in the Civil Contingencies Act. RoPA disolves Parliament automaticaly after 5 years although technically we would be reliant on Liz isuing the writs for a new lection off her own bat. I’m sure she would.
We are quite safe really. We won’t need the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment!
325. The LDs are a largely irrelevant third party, their leader is not the PM, and there are no considerations of collective responsibility in the equation.
The Conservative case of 1990 is instructive to the present problem. Thatcher only resigned because:
i) unless she did, no cabinet colleague could enter the race..
ii) unless they could run, Heseltine might win (odds-against, but a risk Thatcher was not prepared to take)
iii) Also the two-stage election process, unlike Labour’s, was specifically designed for such a situation..
Where is Labour’s Heseltine? And where is the electoral system that permits a 1990-style outcome?
They aren’t there, so Labour can’t dislodge Brown in the same way as the Tories dumped Thatcher…
The intensity of the feelings of Glasgow East is not fully understood yet. You see during all those years of Thatcher people were loyal to the cause. (I remember because I joined the SNP at 15 and I knew that Labour was the Beast. I campaigned and stood twice knowing full well that people were going to vote Labour and I’d lose.) Then Blair got in and nothing quite changed but the Tories were gone. During Blair’s time Scottish Labour talked New Labour and the SNP won converts - things started changing. For many, the emergence of Brown was the moment they had waited for. The loyalty would be repaid.
What did they get? Brown pretending not to be Scottish, Brown chasing after middle-England, Brown telling us his favourite sporting moment was Gaza’s winning goal, Brown’s 10% tax move, Brown’s involvement in the war etc.
For a week before the election I was pushing for the use of the pciture of Gordon Brown’s invitation of Thatcher round to tea at number 10. In the last day of the campaign and on voting day the SNP unleished this image on the seat.
For many people who had shown loyalty through intense suffering over two generations this was photographic proof that the man and the party had unequivocally betrayed them.
(N.B. Nice try but the eye and the miscarriage is a bit twisted as a political argument. Put it away.)
334. yes but the canadian example was in a FPTP system where a party was attcking the PC’s from the rigt as well as the left. suppose you could write Plaid and the SNP into the script for that role in the nations but the exact paralell would be RESPECT or the Greens being on 20% in the polls in England.
232. Tapestry, if you are still here,
Mrs Dale has a post after your own heart.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-cameron-can-kill-lisbon-treaty.html
264. However, even they should be realistic enough to see that Britain’s stance won’t matter much for Lisbon if Ireland votes “No” again before it even comes to a British referendum.
The EU is going to make Ireland vote again, on the same day as the EP elections in June 2009, voting for the number of MEPS that is consistent with Lisbon, and not on the earlier basis agreed at Nice.
The EU is already ignoring the Irish NO on almost every front, carrying on regardless with the implementation of Lisbon.
If the Irish vote NO a second time, their Parliament will be expected to ratify ignoring the referendum.
In these circumstances a British NO vote could be critically important - for Britain as well as Ireland, and possibly the whole future of the EU.
As a result the loss of Gordon Brown who can be regarded as 100% treachgerous to Britain, and 100% sold out to the EU, is potentially very serious for the EU.
They will try to map out a safe next pair of hands. Straw isd also EU treacherous as is Miliband. If they can manipulate the media to build an expectation of one of these two being ‘inevitable’, they might then permit a Brown succession to go ahead.
If they thought Field and the Bennites stood an outside chance they will stop Brown from resigning or being pushed out. That is why the system is paralyzed and the Labour Party is being sent to oblivion. Blair started the process. Brown’s task was to complete the sell-out of Britain.
The EU is very worried about events in Britain and Ireland. They are desperate to keep a europhile as Prime Minister until 2010, after which it won’t make much difference what we have.
SeanT - Gerard Manley Hopkins?!?! WTF?!
Did NOT see that one coming…
321. ‘he [Nick Palmer] actually gave up a very well paid job in Switzerland to become an MP’
And with such a towering record of achievement I’m sure he is convinced he did absolutely the right thing. Few of us can surely say, hand on heart, that we have made a difference the way Mr.Palmer has.
341. No they wil just make one up. Vote of the cabient, vote of the party, delegation of elders going public. None would hve constitutional force but would finish him. He wouldn’t be able to open his mouth in public. Would he be like Lord Goderich travelling round london by coach attending all the ministries him self bcause no one would sit in his cabinet ? the Labour rules give him an extra layer to his heat shield nothing more.
329 worthless post.
320 yes, I do
Prescott says not a single Labour MP has the ability to take us throught the current situation except Brown - there you have it folks, Labour have zero talent capable of running the country, from the horses mouth - its Gordon or nothing for Labour….. and these people are our government? Good grief.
re 326. Not evil - but totally possessed by himself and his own ego. Why yesterday did he not let other ministers be part of the Obama visit - like Cameron did? The reason - he cannot bear for anybody else to share the lime-light. So all the announcements have to be made by Gordon and his team hardly ever get a look in.
If he cared anything at all about the Labour movement, which I increasingly doubt, he would realise the damage that his presence in the top job is causing the party - damage that could take decades to restore.
321. ‘he [Nick Palmer] actually gave up a very well paid job in Switzerland to become an MP’
Says it all really. The ill gotten gains from being an MP were even greater.
348. Fantasy politics…
347 how many of us can say we’ve tried, runnymede?
I don’t know why politics has to be so personally nasty. Accept that you may despise the policy of the other side but they are probably trying to do what they believe to be right.
342. Alex in Madrid
I have family in the former People’s Republic of South Yorkshire. They have a different story of waiting and betrayal (immigration being a bigger theme) but the intensity is still on the Richter scale.
329. Yes, we know all this, Easterross.
Proportional Representation, first at Holyrood and then at council level, has saved the Scottish Tories’ skins.
But there is no escaping the fact that Annabel Goldie’s Tories fared just as badly as Nicol Stephen’s Lib Dems in the 2007 elections. Both parties made one net loss, and the split between constituency/list seats changed.
What exactly is your point?
Baxter has a new prediction up. Tory majority of 160, SNP 13 gains and Tories 5 gains in Scotland
If we assume that Brown does go this year, or early next year, do most PBers think this will lead to an inevitable quick election?
This I think is now the big question. It determines both “if and when” he goes.
Any chance of a PB poll on this question Mike/DC/Morus?
Easterross,
You really are like a dog with a bone. I do confess that the Tories have done reasonably well in Scotland recently. I think you’ve won converts fron Labour and the Libs. You do get publicity but to be honest I don’t think it’s really that significant. I think that some natural Tories who felt they could no longer vote for the pariah are returning to the fold. It could well be though that you’ve peaked.
One problem you have with the SNP is that a lot of Tories are independence supporters. Perhaps a shift in policy can help.
You and others have been correct to point out that there was a major shift between 2005 and 2007. I think that what’s not been recognised is that there has been anothe shift between 2007 and now. Many people still could not imagine the SNP as a government. You will know that they have many converts based on performance and the fact that they can win an election!
I think that the shift between 2007 and now is about half the shift between 2005 and 2007. Think about another 8% increase in their vote and look at the effect that will have in seats across Scotland. Sorry but the trend since to 2007 is pretty brutal in places like Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire and even in the borders never mind Labour heartlands.
353. Well in a way , yes, it would be fantasy politics but those apear to be the times we are living in. What else is fantasy other than something that hasn’t happened yet? When was the last time labour have polled this low? never in poling history? when did they last lose glasgow east? If the collective will of the Labour party is that Brown should go then he will what ever the rules say.
337. lol. Don’t worry Ave It, I can look after myself.
Mike Smithson thinks European Federalism is a good idea because his “dongle” works, from time to time, in southern Spain.
That’s about the level of his European analysis. But he is damn good on bets.
Alan the point is that whereas the Tories doubled or better their constituency majorities and took 1 constituency from the LibDems, the LibDems lost 3 constituency seats and in addition while taking Dunfermline only increased their majoities in 3 of their other 10 constituencies, not the sign of an improving opposition in the face of an unpopular government.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 40% .. Obama 49%
Note - This is the largest ever Obama lead in Gallup tracking since polling started in March.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109102/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-40.aspx
New thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
351 True. Not evil. But insecure.
344. Didn’t you know that the Irish Times reads my blog, Brian SJ? Neither did I.
Cameron’s promise puts time pressure on the Lisbon Treaty. The EU has to get in the bag before Cameron has a chance to carry out his promise. If the Irish won’t vote for the Treaty in a referendum, it seems highly likely that the EU will push through an Irish Parliamentary ratification, without any more referenda, or at least ignoring their results.
While they are planning how they will close the door on any possible Cameron effect, they will keep Gordon Brown in place, to ensure Lisbon is not threatened by a sudden breakthrough in the Labour Party of the Bennites or Gisela Stuart, Graham Stringer, Frank Field, Kate Hoey etc.
If for example any of the above apart from the Bennites were to seize the Labour leadership, the Party’s fortunes in the polls would improve dramatically, and Cameron’s easy win with a majority of 160 and rising might not be quite so certain.
The interests of the EU are in direct conflict with the interests and maybe the beleifs of Labour MPs. These are the forces building in the background around the Brown premiership. The question is - will the Labour Party be sacrificed to save the Lisbon Treaty?
Alex, in a council byelection in Dumfries and Galloway a few months ago we hammered the SNP. Remember there would be no ALex Salmond Government without Annabel Goldie. He does which is why he listens to her even if he doesnt agree with her all the time.
361
357. “Tories 5 gains in Scotland”,
One of which is twaddle [Edinburgh South], and three are gained by a hairsbreadth.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up, Easterross
351, that’s a big part of his problem. Because he has to announce everything, take credit for everything and never admit a mistake (even if it means blatantly lying, and lying badly) then when anything goes wrong he turns into a lightning rod for criticism.
In a Shakespearean twist, his crushing of all opponents in his bid for the top job has meant that he has no real heavyweights to support him, and no realistic prospect of making others responsible for their own policies. Imagine if he sacked Darling for being a bad chancellor. Nobody believes Darling is anything more than a glove puppet, and Brown has controlled the purse strings and much of the domestic agenda for a decade.
It is the perfect storm for Labour.
366. Tapestry, you often say some sensible things, especially about Harriet Harman, but even a monomaniacal eurosceptic like me finds your imaginings about Europe somewhat bizarre.
Can you honestly conceive a situation where someone like Kate Hoey or Frank Field might “break through” and seize the Labour leadership?
I’d love to see it, obv. But… how can I put this. No dice.
303 Thats been my experience 2 weekends running in my local large town ,not empty but certainly much quieter than I can recall in years.
I grew to dislike going t othat town in view of the sheer traffic, not now though the roads are much quieter and have been for a while
359 - In the last YouGov poll 19% of Scottish Tories surveyed would vote Yes in a referendum on independence. It would be crazy to change policy based on that number. In the same way that I doubt the SNP would change it’s stance because 12% of it’s supporters would vote to stay in the Union.
337 I’m not bullying SeanT, I’m supporting him!!!! (perhaps my post 333 was worded confusingly)
338 That’s a passable attempt at a mildly amusing straw man, Gwynfa, but apart from that it seems that you’re still in thrall to the “Blair bad/Brown good” myth. Not even Brown’s high priestess Toynbee peddles that one any more.
371. The future is usually unlikely, when viewed in the context of the past.
This has been a fascinating weekend in politics. I woke up Friday morning wondering which of two ways it would go after the SNP victory - fizzling out quietly a la Crewe & Nantwich, or a steadily escalating level of rumours and plots.
Ordinary mortals like me can only go on what we read in the papers/blogs and see on TV… but it looks to me like the die is cast. It’s gone too far. It’s as if the cabinet and the public have metaphorically looked at each other and nodded their heads in agreement about Brown. It’s very hard to see a way back.
Some reports suggest September will be when it happens. ‘It’ could be anything - the party rules, 70 MPs etc, can go out the window. A group of senior cabinet ministers perhaps. After all, Brown knows about coups since orchestrating his own in September 2007 to force Blair’s hand.
I predict that when a new leader is installed it will be a moment of relief for us all… a new start, escaping from under a dour cloud. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour’s fortunes improve hugely with a young, fresh, snappy leader.
377. young? fresh? snappy? leader?
How about New Labour - The Sequel……
I can see the trailer now.
From the Party that brought you the incomparable golden NEW LABOUR ERA Part 1 - TONY BLAIR and his lovely CHERIE, JOHNNY PRESCOTT, GORDON BROWN, PETER MANDELSON and HUNDREDS more corrupt and incompetent sleezeballs…
Now showing for one week only - the next instalment - DAVID MILIPEDE supported by his deputy HARRIET HARPERSON, with the one and only MAN OF STRAW. Guaranteed to ruin your digestion for another two years. Your carpet will never be the same again. Popcorn advised as the only pleasure to be derived while Britain collapses in a sea of vomit and tears. You have never seen anything like it, and will never see again. Unmissable, unfortunately.
345. If this highly efficient, cleverly organized European conspiracy really exists, I demand to get my membership card already! I rather think that those supporting the Lisbon treaty are desperate and have no alternative.
If they make Ireland vote again and then ignore their vote, it will be a pyrrhic victory. It will make the breakup of the EU inevitable and thus also kill the treaty.
69 - the electorate for the deputy leadership election was the party as a whole, not just the PLP.