Is Richards right about the Tory leads being “soft”?
July 29th, 2008
Or is he just clutching onto straws?
Reflecting, like just about everybody, on Gordon’s future the Independent’s political writer, Steve Richards, makes an assertion in his column today that “all the polls” suggest that the Tory leads are “soft” and that “..there has been no fundamental sea change” and that “as the last year has shown, fortunes can shift dramatically.”
I believe that this is a completely wrong interpretation from someone who gives that impression that he is is desperately trying to find something that will portray Labour’s plight in a more positive way.
This has remained fairly consistent since the March budget. From April 23rd onwards every single poll from every single pollster has had Labour with double digit deficits. In that period, too, all the polls have had the Tories in the 40s and almost all of them have had Labour in the 20s.
But this is not just a new phenomenon. In the eighteen months between Cameron’s election as Tory leader and Brown’s coronation every poll, bar one, that measured measured voting intention with the two against each other had Labour doing worse with Brown at the helm. What’s happened can just be seen as a continuation with the short interruption of Brown’s media honeymoon.
Then there is also what I have dubbed here on many occasions - the “golden rule of polling”. Based on every single general election, London Mayoral election and by election where there has been polling for nearly two decades “the most accurate poll has been the one showing Labour in the least favourable position”.
Last week in Glasgow the rule was tested again. There were two polls, remember, one with a 14% Labour lead and another with a 17% lead. We all know what happened.
Finally there is the John Major test. Taking ICM, the only directly comparable pollster with those we have today, the Tories only dropped below 30% twice in the monthly Guardian surveys between July 1995 and election day in May 1997.
“Soft” - I know what’s soft about the Richards’s article and it is not the polling.
Mike Smithson
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He’s soft in the head ?
1. you beat me to it. Exactly.
Nothing by Steve Richards is essential reading. This just shows that the Labour mindset still has not started to do listening or learning.
John Major:
14 million votes in 1992.
A majority of 36230 in Huntingdon 1992.
Even at the lowest ebb for the Tories in the mid-90s, he was still pollig above 30%.
I remember Hestletine claiming right up to election night 1997 that they’d increase their majority; I wonder who’ll pick the short straw and have to do this duty for Gordon?
Stating something doesn’t make it true.
‘“all the polls” suggest that the Tory leads are “soft” and that “..there has been no fundamental sea change” and that “as the last year has shown, fortunes can shift dramatically.’
Chinny reckon. As Wikipedians are fond of saying, [citation needed].
Having thought about it for a second: Nick Palmer?
He’s in denial. A very fundamental shift has taken, not just in the few months, but actually one can see its been a gradual change since December 2005. Of course the huge leads didn’t come until this years Budget, but those leads are based on a strong foundation of support. Remember the local elections of 2006 and 2007 where the Conservatives achieved massive gains? Then this years locals they achieved what, 45%? A party that only has a soft lead does not achieve 45% in a national election.
Lefites are deluding themselves that its a sft lead and that it can all turn around, because the alternative is to admit Labour are heading for Opposition, probably not just for one term but for two, maybe three.
Steve Richards -wishful thinking - long may it continue and make the landslide even bigger.
Steve Richards is just another distraught Brown groupie whistling in the dark to try to keep his spirits up. He gave the game away on his appearance on Newsnight last night when he described the situation within the government/Labour Party as a “nightmare”.
@6:
Pshaw. NickP knows what’s going down in Broxtowe. He’s done canvassing.
Richards is just wishful thinking - I take what he says with a giant pinch of salt. He is stuck in 1997 as with some other Left inclined commentators. The landscape has changed completly, the messages on public service that he trots out now are not even on the radar politically. It is all about economics, taxation, level of state spending, regulation and individual self determination.
Steve Richards is not an analyst who derives his thoughts from facts. Instead he creates a version of what is happening in his mind and then looks for interpretations of the facts to back up his conclusion. So he starts out with the view that Brown is recoverable and the Conservatives can be defeated and to support that view he derides the Conservatives 15 to 23 point leads, as soft.
Why does he do this? Well he is a Labour supporter who wants them to remain in power. He wishes this is the case and denies all facts that point to an alternative. As GIN says “He is in denial”.
Long may he stay in denial as Scampi writes “make the landslide even bigger.”
4 Gordon won’t be leader on election night.
What policies could they introduce to turn the tide? Even withdrawal from Iraq wouldn’t work as they’re too associated with it. Tax cuts will have the left cry betrayal, tax raises will feed the ’same old labour’ line. Eco policies aren’t popular, nor is their foreign policy line (on the EU). I suppose a new leader promising a Lisbon referendum might make things interesting and cause a little chaos, especially if he/she pledged to go further than the Tories, but again, they’re associated with the treaty and with the reneging on a promise on it already. What’s the big policy today? Harman has enounced plans to let women get away with murder (literally). If this will please anyone it’s the base of the labour party, everyone else will be either indifferent or hostile. Brown believes the economy will pick up and save him, I suppose. No chance.
I think poll percentages are built in layers. There is a hardcore, a very solid part and a soft part on top. We know that the Conservatives hardcore is around 30-33%. I would argue that the bit upto 40% is very solid as they have been touching this frequently for a long time. The only bit that is soft is the 3-5% that makes up the full 43-45% that the Conservatives are polling around now. So the best case scenario is that Labour could narrow the lead to 10-15 points as opposed to 15-20 points.
13. He’s survived the Glasgow East bye election - a bit of noise but not much heat coming his way.
I still say Gordo Massacre in May 2010.
Ah but the difference is
Tories on under 30%, Labour landslide majority well into 3 figures
Labour on under 30%, Tories 6 seats short of a majority
17 - Erm all rather depends where all the other parties are.
14-Funnily enough I seem to hear more and more voices calling for “social justice”, cue higher taxes. And they are still bleating on about global warming.
As for HH, why is premeditated murder of your husband ok but not of a thief?
Where is these people’s political radar? Do they all live in a Graudianista dream-world? Do they all believe the crock the BBC splurges out?
16 I hope Brown’s still around to carry the can, it would make the Tory victory even larger and sweeter. I feel, however, that determined moves are now afoot to dump him asap. When a serious challenge comes out into the open, which it will, then Brown will, characteristically, run away rtaher than face a straight fight.
Never underestimate the extent of that mans cowardice.
I hate consensus, so let’s shake this up a bit.
I think the Tory lead *is* soft to a certain degree.
There has been a fundamental shift, and to refuse to recognise that is utterly stupid. However, this doesn’t mean that the lead isn’t soft.
A soft lead is one that is susceptible to change, a hard figure implies that the view is fixed.
I reckon the Conservatives have a hard figure of around 40%, but that from 40%-47% is much softer. These people are following the trend - they hate Brown, and can’t see anything wrong with Cameron. If the election was held tomorrow, the majority would vote Conservative.
BUT if Cameron was engulfed in a scandal, or fell out of favour at the time of a new Labour leader, or some other factor came along to ruin his purple patch in the same way that honeymoons so easily are, I think he could shrink back to 39-41%. Where the soft 7-8% he currently has at the moment would go is anyone’s guess. If the Lib Dems got their act together, they could take it (that’s probably what Clegg is aiming for). They *may* go back to Labour with a next-generation leader. They may stay conservative, or vote BNP in disgust that the other big party had let them down.
My point is - as much as Richards’ article is wrong, the Tory lead *is* soft to a certain degree - 7-8% of it could well abandon them in the next year or two, before they take power.
Poll leads can go down as well as up.
Not very likely if you tie a massive lead filled Gordian knot to the balloon, but hey ho.
Makes for some fun reading. I think the Conservative lead is great, it allows them more room to ’say the unthinkable’ - which in turn will get them more votes (i.e. taxes down, public sector down, privatise the BBC etc).
Here is to 2 more years of Gordon bless him. If only he appreciated how much he was doing for the Conservatives.
21 - None of this denies there has been a fundamental sea-change, whereby Labour have lost 5-6% to the Conservatives, which cannot and will not be recovered before the next election
I’m glad Mike has pointed this out. Leftish commentators have been saying for a while that the Tory lead is ’soft’ and that it represents disatisfaction with Labour rather than any affection for the Tories but this seems to me to be little more than wishful thinking.
The polling evidence suggests that the Tories have been consolidating their leads incrementally since October. First overtaking Labour again after the non-election farce and having small 3-6 point leads with occaisonal spikes up to 10 points and occasional dips below. The Tory lead around the New Year was around 8 points which Labour had eaten into a little by the time of the budget and it was down to about 5.
The budget marked the key turning point because it was such a non-event. With Britain about to head into an economic storm, Darling produced a steady as she goes budget with no new ideas. The Tory lead moved to double figures after this and consoldiated at 10-12 points until after the local elections and Crewe and Nantwich. Brown’s response to these defeats (getting on with job, long term decisions etc) pushed the Tory lead into the high teens-low twenties were it has stayed every since.
What we have seen, then, is incremental increases in the Tory lead with sentiment against Labour hardening as time has passed. The major difficulty for Labour is what new policies will any of the potential replacements for GB offer? It seems increasingly true that Labour has run out of intellectual steam and that it is the Tories who are making the policy weather (if a little fuzzily quite often). Major Labour policy initiatives (Welfare reforms, Crime mapping today) are now often lifted either wholesale or partly from Tory proposals. This is a clear sign of a governing party, not just Brown, in decline.
The public may not be positive about the Conservatives in the way many were about New Labour in 1997 but Labour’s (and the country’s)problems aren’t going to disappear with Gordon Brown. ‘Time for a change’ is a powerful narrative and its going to be hard for any Labour leader to argue that his party deserves another four or five years in power when so many people are fed up with Labour in a big way.
VERY QUICKLY - Who was the last PM not to fight a General Election?
20
Your thoughts on Brown leaving are as wishful as Richards’.
Labour MPs have no balls: Gordon will not go without a bloody fight.
Remember these are the people who despite their beliefs voted for war in Iraq. they have no souls, no creed, no heart left.. and certainly - with a few female exceptions:-) no testes.
Tonight’s Evening Standard claims “10 Ministers ready to resign”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23522936-details/Ten+ministers+ready+to+quit/article.do
27. “junior”
25 - Neville Chamberlain!
25 McMillan>?
25 - Douglas-Home I think
Richards is correct that the troy lead is soft in that it somewhat unlikely that they will win the next general election by 20 points and there probably will be some sort of swing back as the election approaches. Where he is wrong is that there has been a sea change and there is no way that Labour can turn things round. Barring a huge controversy Cameron will be PM after the next election. The only doubt is about the size of the majority. Will it be a comfortable 1979 figure or a 1983 landslide.
New Labour’s erosion has been slow and painful. It reminds me of deforestation a bit. As long as there’s no major rain or flood of any kind, vegetation will seem rather alright, even when all the trees have been chopped down. Once it comes though, everything slides. Brown and the economic downturn are not causing this, they just show how fragile New Labour has been for a while now.
It’s probably the price you pay for making “governing” the center of your political philosophy. It works while things are going well, but makes you completely passive. In times of crisis, people want leadership. A party that wants to win but has forgotten why exactly is simply unable to provide that.
I don’t think Cameron’s “everything to everyone” Tories are any different, though. In that sense, of course their support is weak. I’m aware this is a betting site, but you still get a strong sense that after a long time in opposition, the current record leads for the Tories have become a value in itself. What do you want? We want to win! Who are you? Not Gordon!
It does not matter for winning in 2010 or earlier, I reckon. Labour’s fall will be the Tories’ rise. If Labour is crushed badly enough, this may even make for a long time in government. Long and disappointing. Few parties manage to regain a sense of purpose once in government. If I were a Tory, I would probably want to trade in some of that massive lead for growing an actual spine, learning from Labour’s mistakes.
31 - Actually no, he lost to Wilson in 1964
25 Eden.
35 Moi. No he won in 55 !!
35 - Nope, he won 49.9% of the vote in 1955.
28 Yes, when you read the story - but it is on all the boards in central London. The headline just piles on the misery for Gordon. Perhaps the Southwold Organ could join in the fun with a headlin of its own…!
25 It was NC …. “I have here a piece of paper”
McMillian went when he was PM and was succeded by Alec Douglas Home after Mcmillans doctors persuaded him that he should resign due to prostate cance IIRC. It wasnt actually true that he had p cancer.
But on reflection it must be Wilson who resigne and then Sunny Jim took over
29 - Yes, it’s Chamberlain.
If Brown is forced out this year, as seems increasingly likely to me, and Labour then held a leadership election, what would happen in the interim? Assuming Brown chose to step down immediately, would we have an “acting/temporary” Labour leader and an “acting/temporary Prime Minister? Important question for how bets are settled. Also would in all likelihood this person be Jack Straw, even if he was a contestant for the permanent Labour leadership election?
I think the current polls could turn out to be a poor indicator of the next election result in that they’re largely based on Brown’s unpopularity and the economic downturn both of which may not be issues in 2010.
In the run up to 1997 the economy was in decent shape and Major wasn’t despised the way Brown is so it was just a case of the electorate being fed up of the Tories full stop. Labour can improve greatly in the polls by the next election in my view.
Mike - I’d get onto the Evening Standard, they have spelt your surname with a ‘y’ in a piece about yesterday’s Hattie thread!
40 On further reflection it must be Blair and Gordo took over!
25 er, Brown?
Never trust a commentator who says “I see no enthusiasm for party x”, all it means is that they are in a bubble of their own choosing.
29. Yes definatly Neville Chamberlain.
It was MacDonald
I agree with Mike Smithson’s take on this. I believe Cameron has done a brilliant job, first in the ‘brand detoxification’ and now moving towards convincing the electorate that he’s serious. He has paced himself well for an election in 2009/2010.
Interestingly, the recent YouGov poll, which the Telgraph headlined as “David Cameron lightweight but likeable”, was rather more positive in this respect than that headline implied. As well as doing well on the ‘forced choice’ and ‘economic competence’ questions, the ‘Which word or phrase more applies to Cameron’ results included:
Heavyweight 23%
Lightweight 50%
Don’t know 27%
Competent 51%
Incompetent 19%
Don’t know 30%
Decisive 45%
Indecisive 28%
Don’t know 27%
Deeply serious 27%
Somewhat shallow 39%
Don’t know 34%
(He was also regarded as ‘Likeable’ and ‘Inexperienced’ - no surprises there)
High scores for Competence and Decisiveness bode well for Cameron and the Conservatives. Of the other questions, the last was phrased in a very biased way, pitting ‘deeply’ on one side against ’somewhat’ on the other; it should have either just given the choice of ’serious’ or ’shallow’, or given a symmetrical set ‘deeply serious/somewhat serious/somewhat shallow/very shallow’, so I don’t think much can be read from it. I think the ‘lightweight’ question also means very little for someone who has not been in government - you’re always regarded as lightweight until you’ve been a senior minister for some years. No doubt the mooted younger Labour alternatives to Brown would also be seen as ‘lightweight’ at this stage.
25
Morus , doyou mean never to fight or not to fight, there is a difference!
Richards will be correct when the Conservative lead is 30%.
It will happen. The economy is deteriorating. Gordon will continue. And food prices are going to rise a LOT more as fertilser prices (oil derived) treble and feed into grain and vegetable prices. And gas and electricity prices rise 30%.
You have seen nothing yet. Labour are going to end up with emergency handouts to OAPs who will lietreally be starving and freezing in the winter.
I am not overdramatising. Watch . All the above are already known. The implications for the poor have not yet been realised cos most MPs live in the Wetstminster cossetted lifestyle few of their constituents see.
You hvae seen only the start.
42. I think the acting leader/PM would either be Straw or Hattie.
The important point is that we would have;
Blair
Brown
Straw/Hattie or whoever as acting leader/PM
Newly elected leader/PM
All in the one Parliament! What the public would think, seeing the governing party behaving like the Lib-Dems I have no idea, but I can’t imagine they will take it all very favourably.
26 The time has arrived for some influential figures when they know they have no choice other than to get rid of Brown. He will scuttle off without much of a fight when the time comes, which isn’t long now, just like he’s done on every other occasion when he’s faced a straight fight.
How come the Conservatives have hoovered up most of the disaffected Labour votes and the LDs gained so few, if the attraction of the Conservatives is so soft? The LDs should have taken more than half of these disaffected Labour voters.
The answer to the riddle is that the Conservatives are attractive and the lost votes are not soft ones. They moved to the Conservatives for very solid reasons. I guess Steve Richards was one of those pundits that thought Boris would not win London or that Labour would keep C&N?
51 - Good spot. I meant ‘who was the last PM never to fight a GE as PM’. I think it was indeed Chamberlain.
@46:
Pedantiwin!
53 - You could quite plausibly hand on from Brown direct to his permanent successor without an interim leader. Happened with Thatcher/Major albeit the election was MPs only so quicker. There is no particular reason why there should be an interim leader.
55
the LibDems did what they do best: chose the wrong Leader and then attacked : the Conservatives..!!
Which just emphasised in most peoples’ minds: the real opposition to Labour are : the Conservatives.
Bloody stoopid if you ask me for the LibDems to act like that..but hey ho..
Morus, Labour’s support is soft. You assume that SNP will not take any Labour seats, that Brown appeals to the same people as Blair, that Cameron would have no winners bonus.
Major in 1992 was said to have been short changed by the electoral system given his lead. It may just as easily shift the otherway eating into Labours “in-built” advantage under FPTP.
Labour won seats under Blair because Blair appealed to middle England voters. If Cameron does the same as Blair, who is to say the affect will not be transferred to the Tories at the expense of Labour.
55 - I guess the biggest argument is they melted away very quickly last summer before coming back again (and in greater numbers). But then voters generally are more easy come, easy go than they were.
53. 5 PM’s in 4 years?:
http://therightstudent.com/2008/07/could-we-have-5-prime-ministers-in-3.html
Richards doesn’t factor in that soft support can harden and hard support can soften (Glasgow East)
He does this because he’s an idiot.
55 - Because the Lib Dems are in poor shape with an unlikeable leader, and because the public mood is fascinated with Cameron’s Conservatives, and they are very much the party en vogue at the moment.
If that 7-8% had split 50-50, or 70-30 with the Lib Dems, I’d be *less* inclined to think it was soft. The fact that a swathe of voters have rushed to the Conservatives like fair weather friends leads me to conclude that some of them might not stick about if things don’t look to good.
That’s not to say the lead isn’t real, or that they wouldn’t vote Tory tomorrow, or that this is different to any other Big Lead in British politics, just that if asked to say what proportion of the lead is soft, I would say between 35-40% of a 22-24% lead.
The figures aren’t wrong, just 7-8% could be pursuaded to change their minds pretty easily.
Of course part of a score of 47% is soft as it is extremely unlikely that any party in the current party circumstances will get such a share of the vote.
But by the same token perhaps part of the Labour score is soft, too, in so far as some of those who currently say they will vote Labour will throw up their hands on the day and go to the pub instead. And that may be true of the soft Tory vote they may move from Tory to pub too.
I can see no way of pinning these factors down from the data collected but only by the stability, or not, of the shares reported by each individual poll. And on that basis the Tory vote is strong or even strengthening, if anything, as the numbers are remarkably stable.
In any case the raw score is not the important thing, the gap between the parties is what matters.
58. Labour couldn’t “coronate” another leader. Given the mess they made of Brown, they would have to have some kind of election with a selecation of candidates.
Brown could hang around while all this is going on, but of course he wouldn’t. He’d be so consumed with rage, bitterness and disappointment that he’d retire straight to the beck benches, we’d he brood, sulk and plot his revenge.
O/T http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/7530519.stm
Birmingham City Council ban on atheist websites.
Bit of a strange one.
@67:
Um, what?
@67:
Oh, and “The rules also ban sites that promote witchcraft, the paranormal, sexual deviancy and criminal activity.”
Guess PBC’s offlimits then.
65. This is the point Mike is making. Labour ALWAYS do worse, than their worse poll shows them doing, because some of the people that say they will vote Labour DON’T, where-as most of the people that say they will vote Tory DO, thus Labour’s support will always be “softer” than Conservative support. This always has to be factoured in when thinking about opinion polls versus real polls.
66 - Please don’t ever use such an awful non-word as “coronate” again. Reading it was the equivalent of someone scratching their nails down a blackboard!
52 Spot on. The real economic troubles have barely started yet and will be with us in the UK for several years at least.
I think Morus and others are right..clearly part of the lead will be soft and the only question is what part of that top slice could be swayed by events. 40% as a hardish figure feels about right..As Mike points out and Richards ignores..it was actually the faux Brown leads last summer that were soft (rather than a base) and that momentum had been moving to the Tories since Cameron became leader.
Events such as a change of leader could move the Tories back to 40% but unlike others here I beleieve that the middle class floater who made Blair able to win a comfortable majority on 36% in 05 have deserted Labour permanently and the spread of those votes will be much less efficient. Conversely, Cameron’s votes will be much more efficient than Major’s. I think the London, C&N, GE and local elections clearly demonstrate that when given a choice voters want Labour out.
re 64. Morus - this is not a zero sum game. The big trend is not the switching between the parties but the apparent desire now by people who have not voted Tory or even voted at all since the early 1990s to come out to vote. That’s what was so dramatic and surprising about the Crewe result
This also happened in the London Mayoral contest. Tens if not hundreds of thousands of voters who had not turned out in 2000 and 2004 did so to back Boris and kick Ken out.
60 - Martin, I assume nothing of the sort - I think the SNP will eat into Labour’s share in Scotland further.
The thing is that there is a truism at play. The party at rock bottom have harder support, because they are down to their base. The party in the lead always has the softer number, because it includes the floaters and the mind-changers.
The intelligent question isn’t to ask *whether* the big leads enjoyed by a party are soft, it is to ask how much of the lead is soft, and how much is hard. That’s the question I’ve answered.
TGoHF makes a great point - soft vote can harden. If Cameron makes no serious mistakes for the next year or so, all but 1-2% of that lead will become hard for the election. However, a big mistake, and 6% of the 7-8% that I’m calling soft could switch to other parties.
Having covered the Tories, how much of Labour’s vote is soft? Less, certainly, because most of the soft vote will already have been pulled away. At the moment, I’d say 2-3%, though if that goes, another 1-2% could soften, but its unlikely.
67 Bluecoat, the blocking software used by the Council has an excellent home version, for free, it outperforms any of the paid for internet blocking software.
The software has a very american bias, and puts things together in categories that would seem slightly strange to us. Its lazy behaviour by the Council officer, as the software obviously has a set of default blocking positions. And atheism is categorised along with “occult practice, voodoo rituals or any other form of mysticism” rather then, the permitted by default sites on christianity, islam and hindusim.
I doubt it really is a conspiracy to deny atheists their ability to deny the existence of god, in cyberspace, but the lazy desire to have a ‘tough’ internet abuse policy.
Anyway, as i said, i would recommend to anyone here, concerned about their childrens internet use to download their free K9 software from k9webprotection.com easy to use, and very very flexible. Even if you dont want to censor, but just keep an eye on what they are doing.
@75:
Morus: it has yet to be established what Labour’s core is, and whether it still has one.
One can’t say for certain whether they’re continuing to trend down until the trend has already ended.
The evidence of recent election vindications of Smithson’s Rule is that Labour’s support is far softer than the Tories, and getting softer.
74 - That’s a very good point Mike, but I would put down any new voters into the mix as predominantly ’soft’ support for a party. They have been swept into the contest largely due to phenomenal momentum and poltical exuberance about the possibility of changing things. They will be the first to be disillusioned, and the most likely to ebb away after some time in government/a major scandal while still in opposition.
75 - I agree that there are parts of the Conservative share that is soft. I would say that it is the part above 40%. As regards the Labour vote well the elections of 83 and 87 seem to point to a Labour core vote of between 27 and 30%. Opinion polls seem to put Labour currently at the lower end of that range. I would have thought that it will be pretty difficult to force Labour much lower than that, so in that sense their vote is fairly solid. The problem is going to come if polls do show that 27% floor being seriously pushed beyond. If we start seeing polls with Labour at 24% or lower then we are probably seeing a significant base erosion, that will probably throw any assumptions about what might happen in an election completely out of the window.
67. People should be working, not surfing the web anyway.
(submits post quickly because team lead is approaching)
77 - No, no, no - we’re making category errors.
Smithson’s rule is that the worst poll for Labour is the one that will be closest to the actual result, and I suspect that is related to turnout.
It isn’t that Labour has softer vote share that switches to other parties at the last minute, it is that Labour voters are less likely to turn up than other parties, even if they say they will.
This is a crucial factor, and there should be a name for it, but it is not a function of soft/hard. You could be a very lazy but very loyal supporter. Soft/hard is the likelihood to switch, not the likelihood to turnout.
Harbint’s new murder excuses. You can get away with murder if you were hurt by words or were felt you have been seriously harmed. Gordon must be shaking…!
Times website lead story is claimng Miliband and Harperson plotting to mount a challenge.
Harman is about the only person who would surely drag labour lower in the polls, and whilst personally Miliband gives me the creeps, so did Blair, and some people for reasons best known to themselves warmed to him
We live in interesting times.
@76:
‘And atheism is categorised along with “occult practice, voodoo rituals or any other form of mysticism” rather then, the permitted by default sites on christianity, islam and hindusim.’
That’s because Atheists are Satanic heathens and godless terrrsts.
78 - Morus
Yes, but if they do ebb away from the Tories they probably won’t return to Labour. Maybe to the LibDems, or maybe just not vote, but I’d doubt they’d return to Labour unless it is led by a figure like Blair.
re 18 but Mike’s premise was that parties don’t recover much if they’re below 30%. Labour only has to recover to 30% and the Tories are in trouble
C 39.7%
Lab 29.9%
LDs as they were in 2005
would give the Tories 320 seats.
Some Tories might be in for a nasty shock if they think the next election is cut and dried and they’re easily heading for a 3 figure majority.
Richards is half-right. The higher the poll rating, the softer it must be. 25% of people will always, always vote Tory. The range between 25-35% would usually vote Tory in all but the grimmest circumstances. 35-40%, that slice would lean Tory and probably vote more blue often than not.
Above 40%, it gets interesting. 40-45% will go Tory with a good reason too (ie, Dave). 45-50%, with a good reason to (Dave) AND a good reason not to (Gordon).
I should add that these are all rough figures and just me thinking aloud, so feel free to shoot me down. But the higher you go, the lower proportion of your vote is that True Blue portion that’d vote Tory come what may, and the easier it must be to peel off.
If that’s the point Richards is making, he’s kind of on to something. But I suspect he’s trying to convince himself that any day now, the scales will fall from the eyes of the people and the Tories will be back on 30%. Even a disaster for Dave and a triumphant leadership election for Johnson/Milliband/whoever is not going to bring that about.
Labour could hope to give that slice between 40-50% enough doubt to stay at home in enough numbers to reduce a landslide to a mere cuffing, but that really seems to be about it.
hmmmm lots of press talk now about a coup in er September! God forbid the state of the country should come b4 their holidays! Oh & Clegg wants to target 50 Lab seats for the LDs - like grease lightning!:))
Milliband would be the Nick Clegg candidate. Looks good in theory, but in realty would do no better than the previous leader and make the whole upheval of removing and electing a new leader pointless.
I agree with much of what Morus says at 22. Mike makes a good point at 74, but I am not sure that voting for Boris (either directly or - in Henley - by proxy) is the same sort of thing as voting tory in a GE.
The tory’s present poll-rating owes much to momentum. The on/off election, locals, mayoral, Crewe and Henley results all make them look like winners. Labour look like losers on all of these plus Glasgow East. This could unwind - which is the best argument Labour have for sticking with Brown and playing for time.
Morus to me a hard level of support is a stable one which will most likely stick with its choice and materialise in real votes at a polling station.
A soft vote will have a greater tendency to switch to another party or to stay-at-home or go-to-the-pub party.
Like I said earlier, it’s unstoppable:
“David Miliband and Harriet Harman are preparing the ground for a leadership election, Times Online can reveal.
Many in the Labour party now believe that a revolt against Gordon Brown is highly likely, with the probability that it will take place at the start of September.
A number of ministers are considering standing down in early Autumn, possibly refusing to serve in a Brown reshuffle, it was reported by The Times today
It is alleged that Ms Harman was spotted on Thursday night, watching the scale of Labour’s defeat in the Glasgow East by-election on the television, telling aides “this is my moment”…..”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4423052.ece
87 and Morus
The discussion on hardness, softness and share of the polls is just speculation. The only way to bottom it out would be proper demographic analysis. If Experian would give free access to Mosaic (which the SNP are using) we could work it out. I don’t see any reason to believe that Labour is down to its ‘core’ yet - Glasgow East ate into their core and the SNP will take another big bite next time. Similarly, estimating voting behaviour for the lightweight but serious tories is very flaky unless we look at Worcester housewife separately from mondeo man.
re 71 “coronate” is not a non-word, it is a non-verb though and Chambers only has an adjectival meaning.
83 - Just read the article you mention and this paragraph stands out. The arrogance of this lot!
“Labour sources believe she has a serious chance of becoming leader if a contest is held. “The public do not have a say in any contest, just the Labour Party, and people easily forget she won the last time a vote was held. She has quietly been working on the unions, with her husband Jack Dromey, and is popular amongst the membership, as well as having the backing of a large number of MPs.”
3 and a half minutes is perfect.
92. Lol - I’ll believe it when I see it.
Am all equal green on election date so collecting early is fine with me - but Miliband securing a big block union vote - LOL !
77. Quite.
I actually have some respect for Steve Richards, a generally sensible lefty commenter (yes I know that’s an oxymoron). However Mike’s right, Richards’s statement on softness is deluded burbling. Richards is a Brownite and a europhile and the idea of Brown going and Lisbon falling fills him with timor mortis. So he’s trying to convince everyone to hang on to Gord.
Won’t wash.
And please, can we nix the canard - cited yet again at comment 24 - that the electorate were ever “in love” with New Labour, or deeply enthusiastic about Blair, etc etc.
They weren’t. They just hated the Tories and were highly relieved to turn to a reasonable, leftish, Tory-lite alternative. But the people never “loved” New Labour. Check the number of votes Labour actually GOT - well below Major’s score in 1992. Indeed, I think Labour’s tally of votes in the last general election was one of the lowest for a victorious party.
It’s just the systemic bias in the voting system that’s maintained the illusion of Labour popularity. And FWIW I think that systemic bias is about to collapse. The paradigms are shifted: this bias is based on voting differentials, right? Low turnouts in strong Labour constituencies, etc etc, no?
Yet as we saw in Glasgow East, we are now getting surprisingly good turnouts, in strong Labour seats - and people are turning out TO KICK THE LABOUR PARTY IN THE NUTS.
84. Which might be a fair representation of how they are viewed in US society, but probably not in British society, hence the Council using a lazy default profile, which blocks atheism and they didnt even realise it.
If Harperson and MIllipede are leading the coup then its cocckup time. The bunker will eat them alive.
82. Many feel seriously hurt by HH’s policies…. hmm.
I’d love it if the law of unintended consequences bit these numpties in the bum.
93 - I agree, but in absence of the data, we have to speculate a bit blind in order to make predictions.
91 - Definitional difference. For me, soft/hard measures how strong the support is (in polls or elections held tomorrow). Likelihood to vote is a separate factor by my definition.
This allows you to talk about Hard-certain-turnout (Blue-rinse Tories), Hard-uncertain-turnout (Working-Men’s Clubs for Labour), Soft-certain-to-vote (new enthused voters for Boris), Soft-uncertain-to-vote (like for Blair in 1997 - fewer votes than major in 1992, but hugely popular by percentage).
I think you get more if you avoid conflating the soft/hard with likely/unlikely to turnout.
90. I hope all Lefties are delusional as you…Just keep ignoring all the signs until June 2010…everything is fine..support for the Tories is an illusion..everyone is a leftie really… Brown is great… its just a MSM conspiracy…
Very symptomatic of the Tories in 95-97…
86. I Dont believe this at all..clutch at straws if you want but this is not 97 anymore..there is no mass anti-Tory feeling that woudl enable Labour to win in the low 30’s. Its anti-Labour sentiment now. The in-built electoral advantage will not overcome a stong anyone but Labour vote.
102 Morus I can see why you like your definition but in practice can the distinction be made in any way which is useful? All we can really do is speculate on the level of vote any party will get, and that vote, or lack of it, is made up of the whole spectrum.
No no no.
Richards is totally wrong.
Labour voters - their core - are often poorer and less advantaged.
These will be hit much more by high food and energy prices… hence the loss of much of Labour support through 10p tax.
Labour is likely to find that as the poor are made even poorer - they will be MUCH lees likely to vote Labour.
The incumbent Government always gets the blame for economic ills. If they dispproportionately hit your core voters, you get hit more at the ballot box.
I’m sorry but economic reality has yet to hit these muppets… probably because they are claret if not champagne socialists like Polly .
The poor are going to struggle to feed and heat themseleves in the next year. Labour “poor “agenda is going to be clobbered.. an abject failure. It would happen if the Conservatives were in power. But they are not.
And Labour will reap the whirlwind in lost voters: for a generation I suspect.
94. Mike. This was not me posting at 94 about the word “coronate”. Does sound like me though!
Regarding the stolen passport fiasco. Sky have just shown the comments of Keith Vaz. Anyone want to buy a passport…?
86 A sad case of Richards-itis.
FPTP amplifies leads. There is a no in-built Labour advantage. Or Tory advantage.
FPTP gives to those who have more, and takes away from those who have little.
I’ve thought this through some more, and would now wish I’d condensed my lengthy wittering above to a simple “the extent of the Tory lead may be soft; the lead itself is not”.
That Times Online story is huge, surely?
2 MP calls for Brown resignation
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/labour-rebellion-growing-steadily-$1233862.htm
(aside: found it cuil.com maybe better than google)
86…the next election is cut and dried. any labour oiks who think otherwise will be in for a nasty shock!
69-I guess sites propagating homosexual practice are being blocked. Or is it now normal? Deviant being non normal/standard. Eagerly wait for the thought police to scream “hate crime”!!
86-Whatever the seat predictors say, a 10% Tory lead will give them a majority. Whether it’s a 20, 30, 50 or 200 seat majority is the question.
Sorry if already posted, bit busy today.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/
ES
Ten ministers ready to quit
Joe Murphy, Political Editor
29.07.08
Up to 10 junior ministers are willing to resign to force Gordon Brown to stand down, Labour MPs claimed today.
Is something actually happening?
115 Yes, they’ve finally got up from their knees and found the will and the bottle to oust Brown. He’s a dead man walking.
Looks like it Jonathan. And thank God. I predict a leadership challenge no later than September 1st.
Given that nominees nor the Labour leadership need 45 signatures, what are the chances of GB failing even to make it to the ballot paper?? Or am I getting ahead of myself……
115. I doubt it. Probly just a bit of froth.
OT
House prices (yawn)
Another big repo auction today, prices worse than last month. London being hit hard now. Flat sold for equiv. of circa 2003 price, not seen that before in town.
118. I don’t think Brown would contest a leadership challenge. He must know he wouldn’t win. Are there any true Brownites left in the Labour party? I honestly think as soon as someone makes a move, Brown will be a forgotten man.
He must wake up every morning and think “Oh f**k, it wasn’t a dream”
FWIW, I don’t think Brown will now make it to the next GE - and “Cameron only” for next GE leaders can still be backed on Betfair at 1.9 - I’ve cleared out all the higher prices.
Bet fair next GE (Party Leaders)
Cameron only moved from 2.04 > 1.9 today.
92. Critical mass! Critical mass! Turkey’s voting for christmas!
Something’s definatley happeneing look at the timesonline breaking news
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/
I patriculary love this quote towards the bottom:-
“Mr Brown’s performance at the National Policy Forum on Friday lunchtime, where he talked at length about India and China and the significance of the iPod, made by US giant Apple, is being spoken about as the event that convinced some they had reached the point of no return”
121. Balls? Watson? Two of the most repulsive people to be elected.
123. SNAP ! Next GE Jul > Dec 2008 still 18s
110. I agree. Whatever people on here might think, journalists are not completely irresponsible liars, like Labour politicians.
No hack would write that astonishing Times article without some substance behind it.
Sounds to me like the die is cast: unless something major happens in August, there will be a challenge in early September. And it will probably come down to Miliband versus Harman.
That surely means a general election in early 2009. April? May?
129. How could they limp on until May - the bubble would have come and gone by then surely ??
I saw Steve Richards on Newsnight last night, when he was pontificating that the tory lead was soft. Polly Toynbee sitting next to him, looked at Richards as though he was mad; even the Toynbee knows whwn the game is up. Finally.
Been out shopping, that’s why I’m late with this.
117 Blimey. It’s amazing what happens when you’re on holiday!
If it’s true, as a Labour member, I recommend following Mike and putting money on Harmann. She IS the party machine. It will take a real popular candidate and a well connected deputy to stop her IMO.
afternoon all, just been catching up with you all.
Clearly some element of the current Tory polling support will be soft but I think Mike is spot on to identify a fair % of the Tory lead as representing the people who have sat on their hands since 1997 or gone elsewhere other than Labour.
If Gordon holds on until next summer, it will be interesting to see how much of UKIP’s support goes Tory and how much Labour support goes BNP. If the answer to both is “lots” then we are looking at the Libdems becoming the 2nd party of the UK in Euro MPs.
Yes a UNIFORM swing of less than 9% would indicate the hung-parliament so many of you wish for but factor in Scotland and Wales where Labour’s Heavy brigade is heading for its own Balaclava and on the far side of the election it will look more like the remnants of Cardigan’s Light brigade than Scarlet’s Heavy brigade.
If things dont change much the Tories will probably be looking at around 43% which in England will deliver all the necessary seats and if the SNP go into the election on Scotland around 30-35% with Labour a % or two less than Alex Salmond will deliver David Cameron his victory if no-one else does.
Steve Richards, Poly Toynbee and the rest of the pinko Metropolitan “elite” know they are facing irrelevance and when David Cameron wlaks into No 10, such lightweight politicians will be seen for what they are, about the same standard as Patsy’s editorial colleagues in Absolutely Fabulous. Last night Toynbee was saying Gordon Brown’s status as Iron Chancellor is in doubt for among other things suggesting he could abolish boom and bust. Well what crap have she and Steve Richards among others being printing in their columns for the past 11 years “lionising” Gordon and the New Labour crowd are still claiming the credit for John Major’s 20 quarters of economic growth. I do not understand why people like Paxo don’t cahllenge them and point out Labour has only been in power for 43 of the 63 quarters they boast about.
Sorry folks I am not wanting to rub salt in wounds but I hope you realise Harperson’s proposls allowing wives to get away with murdering their husbands only applies in England and Wales. Eck would never pass such crap.
I listened as much as possible to the coverage this morning and there was no suggestion a man driven to temporary insanity by a violent or aggressive wife would have the same defence available. apart from anything its for your Crown Prosecution Service to decide. not politicians, whether the evidence supports a murder charge or manslaughter charge.
Can I just say how deliciously EXCITING this all is. We can just sit back and watch the lefties knife each other to death, while ministers slip on the spilled intestines of the eviscerated prime minister.
This is better than gladiator fighting. Unless you are gay.
120. No, not yawn! Very interesting, thankyou. I hope to be buying a flat in London next year, and for the kind of place I want, and the cash I weill have, I’d like prices to fall by at least 25%. Will that happen, dya think?
So - fairly credible information that Straw, Harman, Miliband, Johnson, Cruddas etc are starting to make their moves. The unthinkable has been thunk. Now it’ll snowball, none of them will want to risk any of the others getting a head start.
I’d be surprised if GB is still there at the beginning of September
I agree with Sean, a mid-2009 election seems inevitable now.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4423052.ece
Mind you she is unsackable as deputy leader so maybe she she be the one to tell Brown to hop it?
Certainly HH is as devious as Jack *Camera Call* Straw! I mean changing the criteria for Murder laws is a dramtic thing to propose to become Labour leader; is it not?
134. Haha again I agree with Sean. Twice in one day.
Though I find it more exciting just as a fan of politics in general. I’ve almost accepted Cameron will be winning the next election, so it will be good just to see some frenzied media coverage of the Labour leadership election, so we can enjoy our final months in the spotlight!
You never know, someone might capture the hearts of the electorate, and secure that fourth term…I can dream.
Apropos of Gordon…having previously been of the opinion he’d somehow stumble on, today has made me think that for the first time he’s more likely than not to be deposed. I’ve taken a nibble on Hills’ 5/6 offering of him leaving the office of PM in 2008.
136. The Brown bounce = 4 months, Harperson bounce to last until May ? No chance. Nov 08 best chance for Labour.
I wondered why Warwick II produced so little, that Times online article states the reason why.
“…union leaders think there is little point in negotiating with Mr Brown before the next election”
126: I particularly like this bit from the Times article:
“It is alleged that Ms Harman was spotted on Thursday night, watching the scale of Labour’s defeat in the Glasgow East by-election on the television, telling aides “this is my moment”. This comes despite public protestations of loyalty from Labour’s deputy leader, who is “minding the shop” in Downing Street this week while Mr Brown is on holiday.”
We have been warned!!! Take to the hills!!
141 TC: “…union leaders think there is little point in negotiating with Mr Brown before the next election”
They’ll certainly be no point negotiating with Mr Brown after the next election..
143 ‘There’ll..
134
I saw the ideal flat for you, but as you is not yet minted I didn’t bover telling you.
Airspace (the bit above a building) off Oxford Street with planning, sold for 300k, you would have had a big two bed penthouse built for about 175k = 475k total.
132 Jonathan: “Blimey. It’s amazing what happens when you’re on holiday!”
You are Gordon Brown and I claim my Southwold cream tea to the value of £5….
33 Sorry I meant such leightweight journalists not politicians!
143 Richard, the implication is that the unions think Brown is history.
What happens next?
Does somebody come out with some sort of statement to the media? If so what sort of statement and when?
103 As long as majority of Labour MPs and activists feel that Gordon still has time to recover, that Tory lead is soft and Cameron is a shallow dilettante who will be found out, then, for all this talk of resignations and letters, Gordon will be given time to prove if he can improve or not.
If however there is a wipeout next June, proving Tory lead is firm and Cameron a winner then he will be a goner.
Its the less risky option anyway as then a new leader comes in at 2009 Conference with no pressure to hold an early GE as whatever happens June 2010 is the final date. The worst of the recession will be hopefully over, green shoots of recovery, troops out of Iraq and Labour can present new faces.
If Harman, Milliband and Straw are too eager or their supporters too fearful then they will precipitate a huge row in early September, party will be riven between various factions and if Brown goes the new leadership will be under huge pressure to hold an early GE with Labour seen as fatally divided and more concerned with petty party politics than the economy. Could you imagine the angry volcano that is Gordon Brown suffering silently as victim of an internal coup for 18 months while his reputation is traduced?
149. Don’t think there will be any sort of official rumblings for weeks yet. Just nice to know that the wheels are in motion.
138. Yes, dream on…
If you are looking for someone to win that 4th term, I suggest it won’t be Harman (even though I now accept that she has the capacity to “change the narrative” as Mike “I like the EU cause it makes my Dongle Tingle” Smithson has said).
Harman is just too PC. Her latest law to encourage the slaughter of mildly huiffy husbands by cold calculating feminazis weilding machetes, is not likely to endear her to those working class white men, who are already fleeing your party in droves.
And, if she is elected leader, every time she gets up to speak someone will ask her: why have you made it legal to discriminate against white people?
It might her shore up her core support - ugly hairy women who did gender studies at Leeds University in 1983 - it’s a nightmare electorally. AND she’s posh, which nixes the antiCameron-posho attack.
Please elect her Labour. Please.
133.142. Couldn’d agree with you more. Moreover I now feel that Mike is right about the danger Of Harperson being the biggest danger.
All us men will head to the hill’s, or perhaps France.
140 - Could Brown call the plotters bluff and call an election, when is the PM’s traditional jaunt to Balmoral?
150. Your last paragraph. A consummation devoutly to be wished.
I’m looking forward to it already.
145. Interesting. Grazie. Yes you are right, I have yet to coin it. But next year….
I shall watch this (air)space.
154. Can’t see how this would call the plotters bluff really. As bitter as Brown is made out to be, I don’t think he’d want to be responsible for the complete wipeout of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Re: Harman’s mad murderous women, I am reminded of …..
Jane Andrews - She was the Duchess of York’s former dresser who stripped naked to murder her millionaire boyfriend because he refused to marry her and keep her in the style to which she was so desperate to become accustomed.
http://www.courtnewsuk.co.uk/crime_vaults/
154
That is not impossible James, I could see him doing it.
133. Is Harperson proposing this legislation to get herself off the hook when she knifes Brown at some point over the coming weeks?
160.
:D
Is it ironic that Labour MPs (bar 2) are dithering as to whether to get rid of the ditherer ?
154 James, that is the joker in the pack. If Brown throws a total huffy he could go to the Queen, ask her to dissolve Parliament and then resign as PM leaving HH to pick up the pieces.
He would then go down in history not as the worst Chancellor of the 20th Century but be lionised by Tories for ever more as the man who killed the Labour party.
Nicky Palmer’s been very quiet today.
154. Yes. Good point.
I now think it highly likely we will see suspicious tank maneuvers against El Gordo in September, perhaps leading to a pincer attack from Miliband, Straw and Harman, leaving the 6th Army of Von Brown trapped in the Stalingrad enclave of his own stubborn wankiness.
However, all this presume that Gordon will remain as inert as Von Paulus.
Gordo may be mad, but he’s not stupid, and he’s a good schemer himself. He may have some surprise of his own. A sudden election? A pre-emptive, back me or sack me moment, a la John Major? Maybe he will promise, next week, to step down “some time before the next election”?
What would the assassins do then?
150 “Could you imagine the angry volcano that is Gordon Brown….”
That angry volcano will probably turn out to be more of a damp squib after his long-cowed colleagues rediscover their backbones and stand up to the cowardly bully.
Harman in charge..our very own Blair Witch Project…
164
i was just wondering if Nick could give a “perspective” myself. Where are you Nick???
OT
This is how your taxes go on legal aid cash.
Vote labour.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080729/tuk-uk-britain-sikh-fa6b408.html
LONDON (Reuters) - A Sikh teenager suspended from school for wearing a religious bangle won her High Court fight to overturn the decision on Tuesday.
Last year, a Christian girl, Lydia Playfoot, lost a High Court bid to wear a silver chastity ring which she said represented her faith.
164. He’s practicing his Diplomacy skills for the World Championship.
Since Diplomacy requires a considerable level of skill in strategy, tactics, deception, lying and eventually in back-stabbing former allies he could do worse than offering his experience to one or other of the party leader contenders.
Whoever takes over from Brown within the coming months, will only, in essence, be a ‘caretaker leader’. The real battle will come in opposition, after the inevitable general election defeat, which is why Purnell, amongst others, are showing no interest in taking over at this stage.
165. Dont forget that the Great Leader is a knowen ditherer; he will continue dithering in his bunker. No he’s not stupid, just a paranoid and a coward.
Fortunately, Hattie Harperson’s feminazia regime would only have a year and a bit, not really long enough to enforce a program of mandatory gelding for all heterosexual males.
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
165. Paulus wasn’t a “von”…
Someone’s clearly giving out sherbert rich in E-numbers to our Conservative friends this afternoon - everyone seems rather exciteable over Ms Harman.
Just a thought, guys - what if she’s absolutely brilliant?
Clegg sets site on 50 labour seats, (Politics Home). Another fantasist is born!
165. SeanT. I suggested the other night that Brown might announce that he will stand down before the next election, as a way of holding on until 2009 but I wonder now if it’s gone too far? His authority exsanguinates by the second. Labour want him gone because he is a major electoral liability. This is now openly acknowledged and understood. So why wait?
If it were done when ’tis done then ’twere well it were done quickly.
175. Wasn’t he in line to inherit one?
Sort of ‘heir today, von tomorrow’?
176
1) Mr Smithson is 100% right about the Steve Richards article, which is really poor. Barely a fact in it and certainly no relevant facts. The assertion about the Tory lead being soft is unsupported by any evidence and not supported on examination of the evidence.
2) The new Times article is also very fact-light. I spotted three statements that might count as facts:
a) “”I think most people have accepted that it is over and only a handful of people in Downing Street are trying to stop anything happening,” said a senior government source.”
b) “Friends of James Purnell, the Work and Pensions Secretary, have confirmed that he has reached an agreement with David Miliband so that he would represent the Blairites in any contest.”
c) “Labour sources believe she has a serious chance of becoming leader if a contest is held. “The public do not have a say in any contest, just the Labour Party, and people easily forget she won the last time a vote was held. She has quietly been working on the unions, with her husband Jack Dromey, and is popular amongst the membership, as well as having the backing of a large number of MPs.”"
The rest is just second-hand reheated froth and gossip which no one is prepared to put their name to directly or even under cover of journalistic anonymity. Of these three facts, only a) is new and we have no idea who the “senior government source” is. It’s presumably not a Cabinet minister (or the Times would have said so), so we’re left with a special adviser or a junior minister.
None of which is to say that it isn’t correct speculation, but the story doesn’t really justify the headline.
174. Rasmussen: “Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.”
dead cat bounce.
And where is Gabble? Half-buried head-first in the beach at Southwold, perhaps - an EU flag sticking out his arse…
“It’s wot we do with traitors round these ‘ere parts….”
163 - I don’t envisage a resignation as well, just that he could go nuclear and have an election. If he played it right he could argue that he is unprepared to see the future of the country being decided without input from the public. Doubtless in such a scenario the Labour party would be crucified but at least then he would nominally go at a time of his choosing.
In the previous thread I suggested GB ** could ** do a Blair and pre-announce his departure in 2009. That might still work even if the plotters are moving against him.
While we’re waiting for three minutes until the next Labour MP denounces his leader, I’d just like to ask Mike if, one day, he could reprint the pb comments that attended Gordon Brown’s conference speech last year?
Do you remember that dreadful, hackneyed, obnoxious, ass-numbingly boring blitherthon of nothingness? “British jobs for British workers” ? How the Labour cheerleaders on here, Nick P among them, lauded the great caudillo as he trotted out his monotonies. How the rest of us winced and groaned, as we imagined this idiot Brown boring us all to death for another 5 years.
Looking back, all the seeds of brown’s selfdestruction were there, on show, in that awful speech. The vacuity, the witlessness, the condescending pomposity, the cliches, the clumsiness, the all-too-obvious politicking.
We just didn’t realise the seeds were to flower so soon.
@176:
In the infinitessemially probable event that Hattie’s inexplicably able to surmount her manifest lack of political talent and innate repulsiveness to every major electoral demographic, then it’s conclusive proof we’re living in a simulated universe meant as an elaborate practical joke, and shall begin a program of Universal desconstruction immediately.
170 “Since Diplomacy requires a considerable level of skill in strategy, tactics, deception, lying and eventually in back-stabbing former allies he could do worse than offering his experience to one or other of the party leader contenders.”
Of course, with all those skills, he could yet persuade all the contenders to form a circular firing squad - and end up as the last man standing. Hail Prime Minister Palmer…..
71. Coronate is a word.
179. Not to my knowledge. You may be thinking of von Ribbentrop, who acquired his aristocratic appendage by persuading an auntie to “adopt” him when he was 32…
76. Sounds like a very plausible explanation.
84. While I find identifying as atheist a bit childish, most of us are atheists with regards to the vast majority of deities human kind has ever believed in.
175. Yes he was:
http://www.theeasternfront.co.uk/Commanders/German/vonpaulus.htm
189. It’s horribly clumsy though.
176 you do make me laugh. Did you see her today in her giraffe print dress talking about the new murder laws?
She is ‘good’ compared to Brown but its not much of a yardstick is it?
189 - And the duck-billed platypus is a real animal.
Doesn’t mean it should be, and certainly doesn’t make it any less ugly
Harriet Harman? Yes, that’ll win back the voters in Glasgow East. It doesn’t matter who they elect now, or how they reposition themselves policywise. Its over.
The sooner they go to the country the better as far as I’m concerned, especially up here in Scotland, where they don’t even have a leader at present.
192 - No, Sean, he wasn’t. He was the son of a minor official - certainly not aristocratic stock, which was one of the reasons Hitler favoured him. Although you’ll find him referred to as von Paulus all over the web he was in fact plain old Friedrich Wilhelm Ernst Paulus.
194 - Hahaha! ‘Carefully-chosen giraffe-print dress’ I’m sure. There will be a reason why it was that dress for this policy, just than none of us are clever enough to discern it…
Surely the LibDems need to seize the moment and knife Clegg. Get the sobered up Charles Kennedy back in office once the Labour war starts and then hopefully wipe Labour off the map at the next election.
175
Paulus wasn’t stupid nor blinded by title. Hitler tried to get him to commit suicide by promoting him to General Field Marshall at Stalingrad (NO Field Marshall had ever been captured)
192. Repetition of an error does not prove your case…
195 - I can see why someone would want to use “coronate” rather than “crown”, since “crown” implies a moment rather than a process. I commend the word “anoint”, should the dilemma arise again.
202 - That would be most appropriate.
199 - I agree, the Liberals are in serious trouble. They’ve no leader here in Scotland either. Chas Kennedy was on Newsnight Scotland last night and was lucid enough. If they don’t shape up, they’ll be toast come a snap election. They should have put Vince Cable in, at least he has more than a passing affinity with economics.
198 Look out for when she changes to shark skin outfits……..
206 - Thanks for that mental image, Kas!
197. Indeed, I’ve done some research. It seems he liked to be referred to as “von Paulus” by his troops and so on, and indeed was called that.
However he was not actually entitled to the appellation, being a bit of a pleb.
However he was “called” von Paulus, not least by his troops, so I was right. And what’s good enough for the brave men of the 6th Army should be good enough for you and me, anyhow. Moreover you get 122,000 Google hits on “von Paulus” and just 32,000 on “Friedrich Paulus”.
The old loser has had his revenge on us all. He may have lost the war, but he has won his title on Google.
What are the odds on John Reid as next Chancellor? 50/1? 100/1?
How about a Reid for Chancellor, Straw for leader accumulator? Might be a bit of cash in that one.
202. Isn’t ‘anointing’ a religious process? Sounds blasphemous to be applying it to a politician, especially one of Brown’s ilk.
William Hill say odds on Brown is out this year!
195. The platypus found its evolutionary niche by natural selection - allow “coronate” to do the same thing!
192 No idea what intellectual provenance the attached has as a source but
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Von-Paulus
Paulus was also known as von Paulus. The von in the name is not authentic, a misconception presumably based on the fact that for many German “noble families” the career of officer in the armed forces was traditionally popular for at least one of their sons. Many German officers and generals carried the “von” in their names. Paulus was the son of a minor official, one reason why he was promoted by Hitler who saw himself in the same light - a genius from humble background.
200 “I have no intention of shooting myself for that bohemian Corporal”
212. It’s all a bit like Mohammed Fayed then.
210. party leaders next GE : Cameron only now 1.5 !
Remember Gordo and the Govt of all the talents.. Suppose he sacked Darling and asked Vince Cable to be Chancellor.
212 - beat me to it!
210. Hills also still have Harman as next perm Labour leader at 7/1
218 - Paddy Power go 10/1…
re 202 but coronate only has an adjectival sense and not a verbal one.
209. Yes, and the Greek is the root word for “Khristos”, or “Christ” in English.
BBC reports human remains found on Saddleworth Moor (unconfirmed) could it be the missing murdered boy?
I see Straw is favourite with William Hill now. I did say he was a good bet last Autumn at 50/1. I wouldn’t try to predict how the Labour Party is going to behave. Unless you’ve got inside info, I’d avoid.
220. It’s a verb:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/coronate
222
Sky ahead of the BBC ,, they say it isnt..
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Human-Remains-Found-At-Saddleworth-Moor-In-Lancashire-Not-Those-Of-Ian-Bradys-Victim/Article/200807415059336?lpos=UK%2BNews_0&lid=ARTICLE_15059336_Human%2BRemains%2BFound%2BAt%2BSaddleworth%2BMoor%2BIn%2BLancashire%2BNot%2BThose%2BOf%2BIan%2BBrady%2527s%2BVictim
No - prophets, priests, and kings are all anointed (literally) and that is the mark that they have been recognised as prophet/priest/king by God.
Christ was considered to be all three (in a metaphorical sense) which is why three oils of annointing are blessed on Ash Wednesday.
I believe the annointing of Kings starte with King David, but even now, the annointing is a key part of the coronation of all monarchs in Christendom-as-was.
Thus the phrase ‘annointed successor’ - it would be done by a king on his death bed, to indicate who should succeed him. Not blasphemous at all.
220. That’s not me!
The real shift came just before HH’s PMQ’s. the fact that the Deputy Labour Leader didn’t deny, or was made to deny, reports she was canvassing for the job in a vacancy showed how weak Brown was. Now we have Milliband and Straw in undenied mobilisations. Unpleasent stories about Brown are leaking from Downing Street staffers. No one is a hero to there valet but the leaks are because he’s going.
We are in Train timetables of August territory. If he isn’t removed now all those journalists have the names of half the cabinet in note books with anonymous quotes. The pressure will just build again.
This may be the most remarkable event of my political lifetime. The Turkeys are queue at the Christmas polling station. A great party is executing its leader in panic even though it knows it will trigger an early election it knows it can’t win or afford.
If so it will be bigger than 1979 or 1997. mere landslides in a system that occassionally has landslides.
Its a bit like Harman and Milliband are in the car like Thelma and Louise and are going to drive off a cliff.
218. Value!
220 - I said I could see why someone would want to use “coronate”, not that someone should. I agree with Morus, it’s U.G.L.Y.
221 - Anointing is used of kings also.
O/T President Bush has approved the execution of a soldier in the US Army http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12129.html
231. Soldier or convicted rapist & murder ?
Late to the thread, but Richards seems to be of a strange opinion.
I don’t doubt Tory results at the GE will not include a 20 point lead. But they won the Mayoralty of London, smashed Labour’s worst scenario predictions at the locals, won C&N, and Labour fell behind the BNP in Henley and lost their third safest Scottish seat.
Polls have consistently given the Tories circa leads of 20 points.
If they’re soft, then the electoral results must be soft also.
Regarding the Lib Dems: if they could knife Clegg and install Kennedy, as suggested above, I really believe they stand a chance of overtaking Labour (assuming Brown stays or things get worse). Clegg’s brilliant tax cutting strategy when the public finances are in a mess aren’t going to win lefty votes, and righty votes are lining up behind the Tories to shaft Labour.
“Coronate” is an adjective, but gets used as a verb, probably as a back-formation from “coronation”. But these days the verbing of nouns and adjectives is perfectly cromulent.
231. What if it had been in Iraq?
207/212. The internet multiplies errors, and sometimes even tries to justify them. Get over it.
226 - Don’t you mean Maundy Thursday rather than Ash Wednesday?
212 Ted. Rod and others are correct. Paulus was not a “Von”. He was not born of noble birth and was not elevated to the German aristocracy prior to the Kaiser’s abdication in 1918.
The German “Von” is similiar to the Scottish feudal barony title and territorial or laird designation “of” as in Hamish Stuart of Glentavish.
Just got 9/2 Miliband with William Hill and 10/1 Harman with Paddy Power plus 7/1 Harman with William Hill to be next Permanent Labour leader. Great value!
228 The amazing thing is that Cameron is sitting on a landslide without having written a single word of his manifesto.
It is like Jonestown. The corpses of Labour and LibDems MPs lie on the ground. They all drank the poison willingly.
In Scotland, both parties have no leader. In Westminster, the knifing of the leaders of both parties has become an addiction.
Well, we’re pretty sure that none of Harman, Straw or Miliband (surely the favourite contenders) will wield the knife. They all think that (this time) the assassin won’t take the crown.
So how does Brown get forced out? If (”probably”) ten junior minister resign - so what? (to coin a phrase). The man has a Herculean talent for ignoring reality: he’d dismiss it as a stunt, or an isolated rebellion.
Does it escalate? Probably - once the first few have broken ranks, other cowards will suddenly discover a backbone. And Brown will carry on ignoring them (”won’t be distracted from the mission of guiding the country through this economic turmoil”).
Eventually, with the Labour party in open revolt, enough names (20%? think that’s the threshold) sign a motion to depose him. Brown’s dragged out of No 10 (possibly in a straitjacket).
By this time, of course, the Labour Party has been at war for itself for what - weeks? The (additional) damage they’ll have done to their public standing will be huge. Poll ratings in the mid to high 20’s will seem like happy, nostaglic memories. Come the next General Election (which will, surely, have to be called soon) any new leader will find themselves starring in a modern re-make of the Charge of the Light Brigade, directed by Quentin Tarantino.
The PLP must know that all this is a not-unreasonable possibility, at this stage. Do the assembled worthies of PBC really think they’ll take that chance?
233
The tax refunds (10p tax debacle) come thro in October, it might be the time to cut and run? to avoid oblivion?
Betting markets (Betfair) imply chances of a Tory majority at next election is well under 60% (57% last night). This feels about right and shows the markets support the ’soft lead’ view.
232 - Also a murderer and rapist, but what marks the case out is the President ordering the execution of a soldier.
It needs explicit approval of the CiC, not just default unless he pardons the convict. It was last done by Eisenhower.
56 In that case, it was indeed Chamberlain
236. lol. I have accepted your point! He was not, technically, a von. You were quite right. However he liked to be called that it seems, and was indeed called that, and is indeed called that by three times as many people, judging by Google, as call him Not Von. So I was right as well, he is “von Paulus”, in terms of how is known today.
Be happy with your score draw. Though I know you do like to argue on these Nazi-related issues…
There is no political space to knife clegg at the moment. you’d need (a) systematic bad coverage. to get that you’d need Gordon out to free up space. for the pack to move on. (b) really bad polling. back to the low teens I think I’m right in saying the last 5 polls for the national comanies are 19,18,18,17,15. They’d all need to be 4 points lower. (c) an external shock. we’ve had disappointments but we’d need to be seen to be going backwards. The loss of winchester ? very bad euro’s. The loss of an MEP and the office set up would hurt a small party like the LD’s.
In short a perfect storm. We’ve ditched 2 leaders this parliament to little effect so whats the point of getting a third.
As for a kennedy restoration? well it worked for the SNP.
personally I think he’d need to look straight into a camera bank and say “I haven’t hada drink for x time period and I don’t intend to again.” I don’t think he can say that. The parliamentry party would fight it tooth and nail. assuming he could get the 7 signatures to stand there are lots of stories that would come out.
If Clegg is hit by a bus remember that Vince becommes acting Leader. I suspect he’d just be the only candidate if an election came.
241 - Back in Sept-Oct last year when election fever broke out, I remember being convinced it wouldn’t happen but the more speculation that occurred the less convinced I was. Similarly now, I am still reasonably convinced that Brown will survive in some form. I am getting less sure though…
237 - JohnKellet - yes you are right, the Chrism Mass is on Maundy Thursday, not Ash Wednesday. Cheers!
StJohn - it wasn’t you at comment 220? It has your e-mail and IP address.
(If that’s what Richards’s right is thinking, I shudder to think what’s the view of his left? Try Is Richards right….I know my VERY special friend, PtP, hates grammar pedants)
I bet Blair and Reid are loving all this.
@243:
“The Markets” also thought Labour were going to comfortably hold Glasgow East.
Let’s be absolutely clear about this: the implied probabilities of the market are absolute balls.
They represent nothing so much as the degree of wishful thinking on show at any one time.
251 not as much as Cherie is…
246. He wasn’t a Nazi. Paulus was a career soldier, and after Stalingrad was a critic of the Nazis…
251, I bet Reid is wishing he challenged Brown.
Haha, the poor thug is probably thinking of what could have been. He’d be in a strong position to take over now if he’d remained and challenged Brown.
252 - then you will be making huge profits by exploiting their errors!
248. I was convinced that there would be no election and I was right. It was the decision of one man and he was easy to read.
I was convinced they wouldn’t ditch Brown because its such an insane thing to do. However it seems I am wrong. because its the decision of hundreds of people and they aren’t acting rationally.
257, ever since the conference season Labour has had only two options that make any sense: line up in disciplined fashion behind Brown or knife him.
Perhaps dithering is contagious. Perhaps Cameron’s cast a voodoo spell on his enemies.
All I can say is that politics has been completely bananas for almost a year. It’s fantastic:D
254-While a prisoner of the Soviets? I know some on here think Uncle Joe was that kindly man with a moustache and a pipe…
258
I doubt Gordo is enjoying his holiday.
Wouldn’t it be delicious if the Labour rebels make a complete balls-up of their coup attempt and Brown ends up surviving in office after all.
Ha, I’d be laughing all the way to polling day…
246 seanT. Why can’t you just accept you made a mistake. Even the great seanT is fallible. You’re begining to sound like a NuLabour sockpuppet who wont accept the bleeding obvious.
258 - agreed. The strategic direction, right now, seems to be “dither”.
As insane as it seems, I can’t see Labour taking either of the two options you outline. They can’t stomach supporting him, but they don’t have the guts to knife him.
Cameron must wake up every morning and have to remind himself he’s not dreaming.
241 — “a modern re-make of the Charge of the Light Brigade, directed by Quentin Tarantino.”
And I say that’d still be better than either ‘Kill Bill’ or ‘Death Proof’.
260 - nah, he’ll be locked away trying to turn on the computer, or have his nose buried in a weighty text on neo-classical endogenous growth theory, whilst the wife and kids try to keep out of daddy’s way.
Or perhaps he’ll be having a game of table football or relaxing in the above-ground swimming pool:
http://www.heritagehideaways.com/displayproperty.asp?id=11
No, perhaps not.
Paulus’ grave
http://www.knerger.de/Die_Personen/militar/militar_ii/militar_3/militar_4/militar_5/militar_6/militar_7/militar_8/militar_9/militar_10/militar_11/a_paulus_friedrich2_gb.jpg
264
More like directed by Quentin Davies. he must be feeling pretty sick…
Ten junior ministers set to resign. Surely my (Scottish-bint of an) MP - Bridget Prentice [Lewisham East] - must be one of them. Surely her ex - Gordon - cleared his press announcement with her prior?
Add to which Lewisham West MP Jim Dowd has already been vocal. So have I smoked out the first…?
Could Joan Ruddick (PUSS at Defra, Lewisham Deptford) join the ranks? Unlike the forementioned MPs, her seat looks safe (using Baxter’s seat-calculator) at the mo.
263, it must be very strange to be David Cameron right now. Coming back from the brink last year (partly through his own good performance, partly the rare unity of his party and partly Brown’s catalogue of errors) and now enjoying 20 point poll leads simply be virtue of not being as bad as Brown.
And, somehow, the Lib Dems aren’t even catching Labour and so posing a serious threat.
267. has Mr Davies been interviewed about the current situation ? It would be fascinating. Whats he doing ? does he vote much ? has he tried to find a Labour Seat?
247. YS, note that after months of claims that Nick Clegg is leading the Lib Dems to disaster by failing to attack Labour seats sufficiently strongly, our Tory friends on here believe that Clegg’s attempt to assault 50 Labour seats is somehow a sign of desperation.
The fifty seat strategy actually makes a great deal of sense. According to Anthony’s site, the Lib Dems would take 41 Labour seats with a swing of 9.5%; bearing in mind that some of these (eg Edinburgh SW) have the Lib Dems in third place, then I’d guess that a 10% Lab-LD swing in target seats would deliver thirty-odd LD gains. On present evidence I think that would produce a small net increase in LD representation, though obviously with a large turnover of personnel.
http://www.eadt.co.uk/content/eadt/politics/story.aspx?brand=EADOnline&category=Politics&tBrand=EADOnline&tCategory=zpolitics&itemid=IPED29%20Jul%202008%2015%3A21%3A00%3A547
267: “Quentin Davies. he must be feeling pretty sick…”
And rightly so. Didn’t Dante say that betrayal was the greatest sin of all
270 - he’s been busy with his other hobbies, nailing his privates to bits of wood and setting fire to his valuable antiques.
I think Ed Balls has done the best “trade up” on seats for a safe majority ?
Someone has posted a German documentary on Labour’s election campaign in Glasgae Ost:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=I4n–IXg6HY
Thanks to 45govt at Guido’s place!
271. LOL It’s just that Clegg is so far behind the game on this. LDs are getting nothing nada zilch from NuLab troubles & it totally serves em right!
134 Sean T. What’s your budget roughly?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-20881643.rsp?pa_n=1&tr_t=buy
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-18313624.rsp?pa_n=3&tr_t=buy
re: Times online - please let Mike Smithson be correct. May Fortuna smile on him. May it be Harriet. Labour reach rock bottom then start drilling.
How can the Conservative lead be soft when the party has polled 40%+ in local elections for the last three years? That is real elections, not polls.
New PPP poll for North Carolina :
McCain 47% .. Obama 44% .. Barr 3%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_729.pdf
271. The evidence of 1997 where we made 30 or was it 31 gross gains against the tories was that those seats had been worked for 20 years or more. When looking at a list of 50 seats I’d be tempted to almost ignore UNS and score on
1. council base
2. membership
3. Mosiac profile
4. quality and length of service of PPC.
That would cross off a number on the UNS 50 and add on a few much further up.
also where is a 10% Lab to LD swing going to come from ? even assuming higher than average swings in marginals the most Recent populus has Lab down 9% on 2005 and us down 7%
Cleggs announcement makes sense because
(a) he has to say something
(b) it smacks of the abandonment of equidistance
(c) anti labour sentiment is where the money is. I notice he mentions fundraising.
New thread - So is it “game on” for a leadership challenge?
“Political Wire” has obtained an advance look at Stategic Vision Polls for Pennsylvania and Washington State :
Pennsylvania
McCain 40% .. Obama 49%
Washington State
McCain 37% .. Obama 48%
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/07/29/strategic_vision_obama_leads_in_pennsylvania_washington.html