Will Gordon really fight them on the beaches?
July 31st, 2008
Screen shot from BBC North East
Or would he follow his normal practice and stand aside?
One of the strong messages coming from the Brown camp in the past thirty-six hours is that he would not budge and would fight to the end if challenged. By this they mean, I guess, that anybody wanting to take him on would have to go through all of Labour convoluted process which involves, initially, getting one eight of the parliamentary party to support a challenge.
Clearly such fighting talk is right for the moment and anyone planning a move has got to be persuaded that Gordon is not going to go easily. But is this really the case? For isn’t Brown’s whole political CV full of moments when he has pulled back from the fight.
It will be recalled that in his early days, before he became an MP, Gordon was reluctant to let his name go forward for safe seats in Scotland until a certainty came up and the future Prime Minister was assured that there was no serious contest.
The same has gone with the leadership. After Neil Kinnock’s resignation following the 1992 general election Brown was being strongly urged, by Tony Blair and others, to put his hat into the ring against John Smith. He didn’t. Then in 2004 1994 he pulled out when the polls were showing that Blair would do much better and there was the famous meal at the Granita.
Last year he went to extraordinary lengths to get his coronation and then there was the general election U-turn in early October.
So my guess is that if a challenger, Miliband perhaps, is determined enough then Gordon will buckle.
Mike Smithson
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here he is having a go at Miliband in the Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/31/labourleadership.labour?gusrc=rss&feed=politics
“It just becomes embarrassing and a bit degrading to watch candidates for the Labour leadership slyly position themselves to either bring about or opportunistically gain from the fall of the very person they so sycophantically rushed to nominate only 12 months ago. You have to feel for Gordon Brown having to rely for his future on such colleagues.
If Miliband, Harman, Purnell, Johnson or any others fancy their chances as leader of the Labour party why don’t they just explain why and have a go? Writing articles, holding press conferences and having your friends brief the media are clearly designed to stake a claim for the leadership, so why not be straight about your intentions?”
“The best process for the Labour party would to accept that there is a need for a debate about the future of Labour in government and to invite an open publication of the political programmes advocated by the different factions within the party and to get out and about around the country to openly debate these ideas.”
“Why not start this process of re-democratising the party with a democratic election for the leadership and political programme of the party?
There just can’t be another coronation for the leader of the party. Our members and the electorate just wouldn’t put up with another one. I am up for a leadership election at any time but it has to be about beliefs, about a political analysis of the world and about the political solutions we can promote to regain control over the destiny of our planet.”
by test July 31st, 2008 at 3:29 pm
The silence of our Great Leader is really deafening. Could it be that he really is building a bunker on the beach?
While millipedes are tunnelling, and back benchers are hunting the giant insect, the press and public are agog at new disclosesures to come.
I thought D Milly came over extremely well on R2 this lunchtime.
The BBC managed to find a lot of callers who told him how great he’d be as PM, and he dealt with it in a very charming almost Blairlike way (if anyone can still remember when Tony Blair was charming). I’m sure he was loving it, but all the “honestly, I promise this isn’t my mum calling in” was done with expert self-deprecation and humour.
The guy has never impressed me before, and I still think he looks too much like a nerd, and I still don’t like all the glottal stops where T’s should be, but I reckon Labour have found someone who could turn things around for them, at least from huge disaster to manageable defeat.
Having said all that… I still don’t believe any of the shower will have the guts to kick Broon out before the GE!
Mike. I thought you were in France? Arf, Arf.
I really don’t understand the narrative about there being ‘no mechanism’ to change the leader of the Labour Party at the moment. If enough people openly oppose Brown, as is becoming more and more apparent over the past few days, a domino effect will occur, and I think at least 3 or 4 candidates could get enough nominations to spark the contest. Whether Brown himself would be able to get on the ballot, is another matter of course.
PfP, don’t take me too seriously, I imagine you’ve got far more experience in judging politics than me. I just try and put myself in their shoes and think what would be logically best. Logically, it’s best for Labour to give a new leader at least a few months to take on Cameron at PMQ’s etc, and then have the election in the summer.
[Reposted etc - and somewhat in disagreement with the thesis expressed above]
422. Still not quite set in stone though, is it? The piece rightly says Miliband “approaches” the point of no return. The boy David is still, just, teetering on the edge - it is conceivable that, if nothing more happens over August, everyone could (sort of) forget this and Brown could survive till at least next year, with Miliband still in the Cabinet.
What makes that scenario unlikely, I think, is Brown’s flawed personality. He cannot abide minor rivals who aren’t even bidding for his job. Can he really tolerate someone semi-openly challenging him actually within his Cabinet? Miliband is basically laughing in Gordon’s face, daring the enfeebled PM to do something.
The champion phone-chucker of Fife won’t be able to resist retaliation. He will brood and sulk and seethe and then his wounded pride and anger will burst out, somehow, someplace, sometime.
I predict this will get messy.
The moment it becomes apparent to Blinky Balls and Wee Dougie and the other Brown Stuff Faction commandants in the Fuhrerbunker that Milibland’s tanks are already at the top of Downing Street, he’ll be shown to the nearest medical cabinet to help himself to one of the Special Pills.
I’ve been out all day. Hasn’t Gordon gone yet?
Where does all this new born labour optimism come from? Even if Miliband or another, got their hands on the helm of the labour ship, they are sailing into choppy waters. (these metaphores). The economy is going hell in a handbasket; all todays news points to an extended recession - the big R - with higher unemployment, especially in labours hartlands. So where from the Big Toothy Grins of earlier today?
Reposted from last thread.
3. Robert, I thought Miliband was right not to stand last year. I saw him interviewed, and he came across as very awkward and ‘nerdy’, and at that moment, I thought he would never lead the Labour party.
The last couple of days, he’s been a different man. Self-depreciating as you say, a genuine smile that makes Brown look even more robotic than usual, and actually trying to spark some sort of debate on Labour policy.
I’d personally love to see Hattie contest the leadership, simply because she makes me smile every time I see her talk, a lot of her lines are very tongue in cheek, and she is genuinely funny sometimes. However, I think Miliband would beat her comfortably, and rightly so. I could see a good humoured contest between the two, and that would be literally priceless for the Labour Party at the moment.
6 but Sean, with John McDonnell calling Miliband a coward for not having the guts to declare openly.. he wants a leadership election. When does Jack Straw move, when does Harman?
seems Miliband is waiting, brave Sir Robin-like, for someone else to plunge in the knife.
But Gordon will not go.It will require assassination.
re 4. Just got back from France. I was over there just for 24 hours spending some of my Glasgow East winnings on fine food and fine wines. Thank you SNP. Thank you the opinion pollsters. Thank you Ladbrokes, William Hill, and Betfair. Most of all - thank you Gord.
The chill economic wind from across the Atlantic blows ever more icily. New GDP data reveal that the US narrowly missed a recession at the turn of 2007/2008, and that growth was weak in Q2 despite a massive fiscal stimulus. Contracting growth in Q3 and Q4 is now a real risk.
And unemployment has start to rise in earnest in the US too.
With the UK lagging a couple of quarters behind the US, this suggests a deepening downturn here until at least the second quarter of next year.
The runup to the county and euro elections could be set against a very grim economic background indeed - which means wipeout for Labour. Does anyone really want to be taking over now?
Sums up the day so far really if you missed the Radio 2 show/backbenchers comments:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2479648/David-Miliband-steps-up-challenge-to-Gordon-Browns-authority.html
12. I’d like to thank your dongle, for all the pleasure it’s given us.
@12:
Gordon’s last remaining supporter outside the Fuhrerbunker waves his dongle around!
reposted from last thread
433. Eight months between coronation and a GE?
Don’t think that would work. It’d be pointed out (fairly forcibly) that whoever it is doesn’t have a mandate to implement the decisions that would be necessary to deal with the economic mess - particularly as it would probably be the same front bench (the culprits!) sitting in the same ministerial chairs. Swapping ‘em round wouldn’t work either - brand new ministers having six months to turn the economy round, and knowing one slip, mis-statement etc. would land them in the mire up to the neck?
Recipe for government by paralysis.
I like the theme: Gordon, the life-long bottler.
Sean would you like to thank the EU
18 but Mike S is absolutely right of course. Brown has never faced a challenge he could lose. If Miliband so much as states he will gather nominations it is all over. Brown will resign so as “not to be a distraction” to the renewal of the Labour party yada yada yada.
18 Actually it’s a touch OTT IMO. Brown may have had a ‘mare as PM. But to have been at the top of the game for so long, where only 2 politicians can argue to have been more successful, it’s hardly a CV to be ashamed of. I doubt any of us time wasters got as far in our professions.
Interesting post from Mike S - I for one (being shamefully ignorant of the deeper history of Brown) wasn’t aware of quite how far back his history of cowardice ran.
You are right Mike. Brown has never faced a meaningful election for anything and one imagines he would be very weak in such a situation. It is to our disgrace as a country that we have allowed such a man to become Prime Minister. You only have to look across the Atlantic to see how scrutiny should be applied to anyone who wants to hold the highest office in the land.
20 - I’m not sure about that. Firstly thoroughly modern Mili won’t wield the knife and second I think Gordon has one or two Aces left to play.
11. Would you see these as 3 possible “tickets” for the contest, test?
Miliband/Johnson
Straw/Harman
Cruddas/McDonnell
Those should generate some debate within the party.
“Screen shot from BBC North East”
Certainly not Southwold then. Too much sand anyway; Southwold is all pebbles.
Brown will throw his toys out of the pram in private when he has to go. I understand Thatcher did, and was nearly sectioned that night of her resignation.
21 It is difficult to get as far as PM. Even to be PM briefly is to crown a glorious career. That is why Miliband should not hesitate. Cameron will be PM for a very long time and when we lose, somebody else will have risen to lead Labour - or the LibDems - as leader of the Opposition.
Right now is Miliband’s moment. he can sieze it or he can regret it forever.
5 Well I agree with you - Brown’s departure is being brought about by force of political circumstances - procedures are almost irrelevant in this context. If a leader loses the confidence of those around him - which Brown has done - it’s over.
To return to the question posed by OGH - I had not thought of Brown bottling this before but there is certainly a sound logic in what you say - he has never fought anything more difficult than a walkover election in his life and if that is any guide he may yet walk away from the premiership.
I wonder if Hitler had nuclear bombs at the end of world war II he would have nuclear bombed his own population? It is the worry with Brown he does have access to initiating a nuclear strike.
I think Brown will go for the cinide capsules instead of a revolver as well. Probably oeder his body being burn’t up the side of No.10 as well. Shocking business.
Mike, did you mean pulled out in 1994?
29 Godwin’s Law so soon in a thread, what a shame.
25 I like the way you think, but Harman will not take second slot.
the PM ship is not the US Presidency - deputy leader is not that important a thing to us.
12 - good to see you enjoying your winnings, Mike - but…
Leading article, July 22nd
“The plan, and I realise that sharing it here might make it less likely to happen, is to wait until Thursday itself.”
Leading article, 11pm, July 24th, day of Glasgow East by-election:
“I’ve not been convinced either way in the this contest and have refrained from betting today. Maybe that was a mistake.”
Gordon will just not have a fight - he will duck out of resigning and “get on with the job”.
Miliband will need wild horses.
23 I wouldn’t think the election of GW Bush is a great advertsiement for the “scrutiny” the is applied to potential US presidents. Brown may be pretty dire, but GWB is surely worse?
To quote Wodehouse: “It’s not difficult to distinguish a ray of sunshine from a Scotsman with a grudge.”
Gordon bears grudges, Gordon will have revenge. He may not be able to stop Miliband setting up a challenge, but he’ll do his damnedest to make sure Miliband gets shafted. Wouldn’t like to guarantee that he wouldn’t succeed.
30. Eh? Whats Godwins law???
@30:
Let’s see it in video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA9uIhOp034
Bob Marshall-Andrews has accused Mr Miliband of “pretty contemptible politics” and said his behaviour had been “duplicitous”. DM=toast!
I’m not sure. Every time Brown’s run away from a fight before, he could always console himself with the thought that he’d be back, later.
All through the Blair premiership, despite being thwarted time and again, he avoided losing sight of (and the possiblity of later seizing) the prize.
Now, though, if he wimps out, there’s no way back. He won’t have avoided a fight, he’ll have lost.
I think he’ll fight. Not in a bold, decisive way - it’ll be the unattributable briefings, the vicious character assassination by underlings - but he’ll fight.
SeanT’s called it right, here, I think. This is going to be messy.
Rumour on the grapevine coming from Brownites, Sunday Papers will contain information about a extra marital affair…….
39 - I agree. Brown will almost certainly fight but not overtly, it will be briefings, noises off and proxy’s. It’s how he has always gone about it. In this contest there will be only one winner and he leads another party!
34. Whilst GWB cannot string a sentence together; Brown cannot tie his shoelaces without causing some disaster! I have never seen anyone who is so naff and shit at everything he does. Brown is pure, unadulterated shit at his job. He is so naff it beggars belief to steal a phrase with not inconsiderate frequency from a predessesor
Bob Marshall-Andrews is a political irrelevance who is retiring at the next G.E., and even if he was staying on, would be losing his seat.
42 - Don’t worry you will lose count of the number of Labour MP’s seeking alternative employment after the next election. I think the last week has probably added another dozen to the number!
Nick Robinson weighs in on the Milibid (copyright S. Coates of the Times)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/07/testing_the_wat.html
“Extraordinary, quite extraordinary. Anyone listening to David Miliband taking phone calls on Radio 2’s Jeremy Vine show could be in no doubt.
This is a man testing the waters for a leadership bid and a man simply unprepared to come to the defence of a beleaguered prime minister.
Even when listeners poured abuse on Gordon Brown the most the foreign secretary could bring himself to say was that he was a prime minister in difficult times, that he had huge experience and good strong values - not exactly the warmest endorsement of the man who leads his party.
What’s more, when listeners said how much they liked him he merely giggled and made jokes that these were not his friends or his mum who’d been paid to ring up - in other words he took all the praise and did nothing to deflect the abuse headed in Mr Brown’s direction.
Whatever David Miliband’s original intention was he has now begun a process where the country and his party will begin to judge whether he is a good replacement for Gordon Brown. It won’t be long until some newspaper commissions a poll as to whether voters prefer him to Mr Brown.
….
Many cards remain, of course, in the prime minister’s hands. On returning from holiday he could demote Mr Miliband, he could give him the poison chalice of the chancellor’s job, or he might produce a new policy plan to regain the political initiative. However he will do so against the background in which for the first time since he faced Tony Blair, a genuine rival has emerged.”
29 - I suggested the “nuclear option” a few days ago:
In his many rants in “Downfall” Hitler says that the German people do not deserve to survive, that they have failed him by losing the war and must perish.
The “bunker” similarities get stronger. Brown will soon start to believe that every one of his previously loyal and trusted lieutenants is out to betray him.
Remember Brown has the power to advise HM tomorrow morning to dissolve Parliament and call an immediate election on the basis that, if he is going down, the Party who have failed him by losing so many elections (and it’s clearly not HIS fault!!) does not deserve to survive and he’ll take the whole whining shower with him.
He could then immediately retire (before the election) leaving the Party leaderless, rudderless, flat broke and up Dross Creek without a paddle between them.
This Milliband chap, what is his background? Did he ever have a real job or is he another of those creepy Purnell types who have never worked [BBC doesn't count as a real job?]
Why should he be leading the party of labour? Now there’s a strange thought - a party that calls itself Labour whose leadership have never actually worked. What an ugly little bunch of Tories this government are. I don’t want the Brownstuff faction to have a leader; leaderless or with leader they are all the same -a bunch of arrogent know-nothings with ambition that far outways talent. I think their backbench MPs should vote for ‘none of the above,’ whoever is on the ballot.
My Kansan mate Rocky always votes for ‘none of the above’ and it hasn’t affected his life one jot or one iota.
Malcolm
It does look messy. There is a vacuum here. Perhaps it shows that Brown has actually been doing a good job holding it together.
45 - The real nuclear option though is to mention the ‘e’ word when he spends the night at Balmoral shortly!
GB is what’s known in pyschology as a ‘withholder’. The behavioural pattern is classic, has been discussed in several mainstream web sites today, and speaking as someone who has run several large businesses these characters inevitably have their contracts terminated early for non-performance. Geraldine & Bob may be playing a double game to force Gordon out. Let’s now see who has the ‘Balls’ (and I don’t mean the rather effete young man pictured on the front page of Private Eye..) to do the decent thing and tell GB that he’s got a gamma in his annual performance appraisal.
I think things can spiral out of control due to the 24/7 culture and the need to lance the boil is becoming paramount.
Unlike Mr Smithson I will be in Cornwall further south of DC with access to Freeview and a very robust internationally enabled wireless broadband dongle.
PLP are like ferrets in a sack being immersed in ice cold water, but Tory rampers shouldn’t gloat as everything can change in the twinkling of an eye. LOL.
re 17 indeed Eden was back at the place within a month of taking over in 1955 requesting a dissolution
To get rid of Gordon, they have to get rid of:
balls
Cooper.
and which other confirmed Brownshirts?
Half? the Cabinet depend on Brown for their jobs.
Will they go willingly?
Civl war not an election beckons.
Briefings and counter briefings.
Remember the Labour Party no longer are real believers in democratic processes…
As for Gordon, he’ll do the best imitation of a limpet sticking to a rock any politician can.. (to continue the seaside analogies)
The photo at the top of this guardian article is priceless!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/31/davidmiliband.labourleadership2
42 Dearest Charlie
Bob is a pretty decent bloke; most of his back-bench colleagues admire him. He was due to lose all three elections that he won; and perhaps he’s leaving the sinking ship, not like a rat, but like a guy who knows where the lifeboats are kept.
However, why he should want to get involved with this squalid little matter baffles me.
Malcolm
53. Thanks for that…
53.
“However, why he should want to get involved with this squalid little matter baffles me.”
A peerage in the dissolution Honours List?
“So my guess is that if a challenger, Miliband perhaps, is determined enough then Gordon will buckle.”
Totally agree, I have said it before on PB.com, Brown will step down if faced with a real challenge. Not been able to follow politics on the blogs much recently, so its been interesting to watch the disintegration of not only Brown’s authority and premiership, but also his government through the prism of the newspapers and TV news.
MP’s openly calling for Brown to go, Ministers speaking out on their own agenda, and others demanding a Minister should be sacked. We are also watching the collapse of Labour’s once formidable press operation. Incredible, this IDS all over again.
If Cruddas/McDonnell get going, this will scare the living daylights out of Sarkozy and Merkel. They are both against the Lisbon Treaty, and would not feel uninhibited about calling a referendum. They see the Treaty as neo-liberal and too favourable to big multi-national corporations.
See Cruddas writing for Compass here HERE.
Miliband and Harman etc are just retreads of the Blair/Brown pro-EU New Labour lot. Cruddas and McDonnell really spell change witha big C, and would re-establish the Labour Party as it was.
49 Correct. The process of getting rid of Gordon and electing his successor will inevitably be bloody and potentially divisive. But once a successor has been found there is no reason to think Labour will remain divided. This is not a rerun of the defenestration of Thatcher - Brown has no followers and no record to be dismantled by his successors - two weeks after he has gone he will be completely forgotten and Labour MPs will be falling over themselves to offer loyalty to his successor.
These are supposed to be astute politicians but they still don’t get it. It’s not individuals or personalities that need to change - they’re hated by millions because of what they’ve done (and not done). Miliband is just another Blair-lite (Christ, he even sounds like him, shudder)who can only come out with the old guff about getting the message across better and remind us of all the wonderful things they’ve done for us ungrateful wretches. They’re contemptible and pathetic and quite a few of them should be joining that Serbian in the dock at The Hague. After all, what’s 8000 at Srebinicar c/w hundreds of thousands in Iraq.
If this is how NL are dealing with their dire situation in the polls and sfter recent election results, the bookies are being over-generous in giving three to one on for the Tories to win the GE. And Alex Salmond probably still hasn’t stopped laughing about the inept crew he’s facing - the SNP’d only problem will be complacency.
42, 53 BMA has held a highly marginal seat against the odds two times, after admittedly Blair delivered the seat to him in his landslide 1997 year.
Other highly marginal seats have been lost — and in fact they have normally been high-profile Blairites who lost them (Jane Griffiths, Helen Clark…)
BMA (who I don’t always agree with) is a highly astute politician. My recollection is that he has been critical of Blair and of Brown in his time — he strikes an independent line, thank God. And he can see where this ness is going to end up … so I understand why he is critical of Miiliband.
Maybe Charlie when you have held a highly marginal seat against the tide a couple of times, you will have earned the right to say “Bob Marshall-Andrews is a political irrelevance …”
A final thought, Charlie. Have you noticed that it is Tory rampers who are most enthusiastic about your postings regarding the political slaughter of Gordon Brown? I wonder why.
Betting spot
PaddyPower are offering 2/1 on Brown going this year. Seems good value.
Just had a thought. Posted this earlier today:
“Guardian cartoon.
Who is the shadow-figure with his nose firmly implanted in the Miliband rectum?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/cartoon/2008/jul/31/david.miliband.stalking.donkeys
It’s possibly an imp, or an incubus.
OK, who is the arch-blairite?
Who has been called The Prince of Darkness?
Who is persona-non-grata with GB and vice-versa?
Who has had lots of practice planning and running campaigns?
Answers on a postcard….
The messiness will come from the praetorians around Brown. They have already been flashing their claws around.
Their whole future depends upon Brown, without him they are out in the cold. So they will fight long and hard and carry on even after Brown has gone. We have seen this in the Tory party with Thatcher supporters. It will be the same in the Labour party.
Thatcher was strong enough to make up her own mind to go, but Brown will dither, hold meetings with his ’shadow government’ and shadow whips and still not decide what to do.
Into that vacuum the praetorians will feel they have to inject a defence and that has always meant attack. And attacks of the most vicious and personal sort.
The myths will be borne, the rifts started, the factions formed, the poison spread whatever happens to Brown.
58 - Yes but this is not 44BC, Cassius and Brutus are not going to assail Caesar with knives. Brown will be a brooding presence on the back benches he will still have the capacity to destabilise and I doubt he will do a Blair and force a by-election in Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath. There is no way this ends well.
[Reposted from last thread.]
I’ve just got around to reading Miliband’s Guardian piece, the most over-hyped epistle since Paul’s XVIIth to the Corinthians (you know, the one about only borrowing to invest, calculated over the full encyclical).
He is praised by Labour supporters on here and elswhere for optimism, for the power of his attacks on the Tories and for his freshness. Are they reading the same article?
His optimism amounts to nothing more than saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going”.
His attacks on the Tories amount to accusing of Cameron of being ‘a conservative, not a radical’ and a defender of the status quo, claiming not to agree with Thatcher, but ‘at least it was clear what she stood for’.
His freshness lies like mildew upon it.
‘Labour MPs will be falling over themselves to offer loyalty to his successor.’
Some of them, for sure. The horde of lickspittles and sycophants who rushed to acclaim Brown - what fine judgement they have.
They’ll believe anything for the chance of hanging on to their grubby allowances and perks for a few more years. But it’s no good - Labour is finished electorally whoever leads them.
Then in 2004 he pulled out when the polls were showing that Blair would do much better and there was the famous meal at the Granita.
- You mean 1994? Weren’t the Polls in 2004 showing Gordon doing better than Blair.
63.It won’t be the backbenchers in marginal seats like Nick P’s that will decide Brown’s fate anymore than some of the MP’s who hold ultra safe seats. Its that group in the middle who thought that they had reasonable safe majorities, which have now become threatened because of Labour’s total meltdown in the polls under Brown.
61 Mike
You can only get £22 on.
I don’t think it’s particularly good value anyway, unless you want to arb with Hills to cream a few riskless bob.
Re 67. Typo - being changed
61 PP suspends this market!
64 I doubt he will do a Blair and force a by-election in Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath. - That would be his H Bomb on any successor. More problematic than him still in the Commons until the next election. Could you see Labour holding Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath after Glasgow East if Brown storms out? I can’t.
55 - Unlikely. Bob Marshall-Andrews is simply wired to speak his mind. He’s often wrong and I think he is on this, but I think his motivation for speaking is just that he believes it.
On the subject of the thread, even Thatcher said “I fight on and fight to win” when she failed to knock out Hezza in the first round. He has to pretend that he will fight to the bitter end, but as Mike says I don’t for a moment expect that if somebody credible got the signatures to challenge Brown we would really see the re-elect Gordon campaign cranking up - he would fold. Thatcher couldn’t face the humiliation of begging a bunch of nonentity MPs to vote for her in a second round in 1990. Brown would have all that plus trades unionists plus rank and file members.
60
Jane Griffiths didn’t lose her seat, she was de-selected. Rob Wilson (Con) then beat the new candidate.
She has quite a funny blog, and offers extensive coverage of the soap opera that is the Reading Labour Party.
http://janestheones.blogspot.com/
Gordon will go radio rental…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2008/07/31/david_miliband_makes_things_even_worse
Harriet was the target!
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/Underfire-Miliband-was-targeting-Harriet.4346009.jp
I have guessed publically that Brown will eventually step down “for the good of the Party”. However, I do not think that he will do it unless he judges that he has less than an even chance of holding on; and I do think that he will do it in a way carefully calculated to destroy the chances of the man or woman who precipitated the challenge. I therefore think that any odds now being given on D. Miliband as next Labour leader are quite unduly favourable.
PP offering 16/1 that no Labour cabinet members lose their seat at the next election?? Surely this is value if you factor in a moderate Labour recovery? Who’s most at risk? Jacqui?
66 - “They’ll believe anything for the chance of hanging on to their grubby allowances and perks for a few more years.”
Yes, I expect Labour MPs like Derek Conway and the Wintertons will be falling over themselves to endorse Brown’s successor. Labour MEPs like Giles Chichester will also be keen to express their support. Erm…
77 - who’s to say she’ll be in the Cabinet by then?
74 Thank you — of course, you are right!
79. OK good point, but hypothetically, out of the current cabinet, who is likely to lose their seat if Labour recover a bit?
I think 16/1 is good odds.
81. Brown ?
77…Kelly is a certainty to go. 16/1 should be 1600/1 i think!
Everyone here seems to agree that Brown will not go voluntarily, so Test @11 is correct: “It will require assassination”.
OK. So what about the all-important specifics on the ‘how’.
As RodCrosby has pointed out several times, the party’s rules make such an assassination extremely difficult. Will the 70+ MPs go public and demand an election? Will the Trades Unions and CLPs agree to the card vote at Conference that a contest be held? I honestly have my doubts that either of these will happen….
…Unless one of the likely contenders, or a senior Minister acting as a surrogate bites the bullet and resigns from the Cabinet (like Geoffrey Howe in 1990)specifically on the leadership issue.
In those circumstances, I can certainly foresee Brown’s departure and the loss of my two wagers. But, as of now, I don’t see that happening.
76 - “I do think that he will do it in a way carefully calculated to destroy the chances of the man or woman who precipitated the challenge”
In the current febrile climate, probably the best way for him to do that would be warmly to endorse his old friend and protégé, David Milliband, as his preferred successor!
Sorry if this has already been covered, but why don’t betfair have a market on next Labour leader?
77 - Those odds mean that it is 16/1 that all Cabinet Members KEEP their seats! Not at all likely and not good value.
87. I realise that Neil. That’s why I’m enquiring who’s most at risk.
ConHome has news of another Labour MP standing down.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/07/labours-john-au.html
84 - I’m not the first to suggest this, but keep an eye on Alistair Darling. He’s not got much to lose, given the number of times his job has been dangled around like a bauble to tantalise others. He’s already hinted that he’s had his run-ins with Gordon Brown. If he comes to the conclusion that Gordon Brown must go, he might just see it as his duty to take action. And if he did, Gordon Brown would be swinging in the wind.
90 - Yes, he would most certainly fit the senior ’surrogate’ role.
FTSE100 closing today around 5411.
Remember this?
“£10 says that the FOOTSIE 100 ends July 2008 at least 150 points below tonight’s close of 5429.6 ie below 5279.6
by Marquee Mark July 9th, 2008 at 5:34 pm”
“You must be joking - the FTSE’s been in near freefall.
by Gabble July 9th, 2008 at 5:43 pm”
To be fair to MM, the index DID fall below his projected figure on 11th, 15th and 16th (5150.6) - since when it has improved by some 250 points.
Another missed opportunity, gobble!
77 Pretty amazing that PP are offering only 3-1 against between 12-17 Cabinet Ministers losing their seats at the next GE!
93. That’s just not going to happen, unless Brown stays of course.
72. “Could you see Labour holding Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath after Glasgow East if Brown storms out? I can’t.”
Conservatives and Lib Dems have councillors within this seat (unlike Glasgow East) - their votes will be harder to squeeze.
Charlie, out of mild curiosity, what are you studying at University?
94 - I wouldn’t be so certain!
Miiiband interview with Jeremy Vine [01:08 into the clip]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio2_aod.shtml?radio2/r2_vine_thu
Miliband’s demeanour is of someone who has made his mind up and has been released from a burden. The failure to support Brown outright, his happy responses on R2, all point to a coup. He must feel he has the numbers for a challenge, win and he might just save Labour from wipeout, lose and he becomes the King over The Water, sitting on the backbenches until Gordon loses in 2010.
So what does Gordon do now? There will be the personal attacks and briefings against, maybe a direct challenge to Miliband by firing him? Problem is that once a PM loses sufficient of his MPs support he really has to accept its over.
I thought it would play out next year but Miliband today has changed my sentiments.
Without wanting to try and read Brown’s mind, isn’t this situation rather different to anything brown has faced before. He now has something to hang on to rather than something to gain as in the past. I think that makes it different.
96. Politics.
Cue your witty response of ‘Well if this is the future of the Labour party then keep studying hard’ etc etc.
I don’t want to be an MP anyway.
David Miliband quits foreign trip to spark new rumours of challenge to Brown
McCain’s problem in not having any consistent line.
“You can make Obama into Britney Spears, or John Kerry, or Malcolm X. I’m not sure you can make him into all three at the same time. (Is there a template in American culture for an Ivy-league-snob, black-militant, out-of-control former Mouseketeer?)”
http://www.time-blog.com/tuned_in/2008/07/mccain_tries_to_britneyfy_obam.html#more
n.b. Negative attacks are disgusting full stop, but couldn’t his team at least be clever enough to paint a believable picture?
72 / 95 - I would have thought that a by-election loss would be the least of Labour’s worries in such a scenario. Though I think Brown has far more regard for the party and his legacy to resign in a huff - and he is surely not as nuts as many posters here seem to think.
Will Milliband go before Gord ??
But Ms Smith, the MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, said Mr Miliband had been “trying to stir up trouble”.
“What has David Miliband ever achieved, apart from furthering his own career?” she asked on BBC Radio 4’s The World at One.
“If David Miliband was placed back on the backbenches, then I think he’d become the non-entity that he was before his accelerated promotion,” she added
90 Very perceptive. Darling could well deliver the coup de grace IMO. Brown has clearly treated him like sh1t and he clearly resents it deeply. The body language at their joint press conference a few weeks back was telling.
102 - Hmm, curiouser and curiouser!
Fraser Nelson sees no way back for Miliband.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/869376/no-way-back-for-miliband.thtml
Gordon will never surrender his island, whatever the cost may be.
What price Brown to show real ‘courage’ and sack half a dozen ministers in a new ‘night of the long knives’?
102. Perhaps Brown is lining up to sack him as we speak?
106 - I’m not the first to say it, but I do think this is one possible resolution of the current upheaval. The other likely possibilities are:
1) A deputation of Cabinet ministers (I expect this if Gordon Brown is stupid enough to sack David Miliband).
2) A resignation by a contender and challenge for leadership. This could also be undertaken from the backbenches by a big beast or Jon Cruddas. Judging by that Times report, it’s possible that Miliband is planning just that.
3) Nothing, with a diminuendo of muttering over the summer, since none of the runners and riders have the guts to do anything.
Of the four options, the least harmful to the Labour party, in my view, would be a resignation and call for the Prime Minister to stand down by Alistair Darling. Then the party could get on with the business of electing a successor who was untainted by plotting and back-stabbing.
108. “He has started a war with the most ferocious street fighter in Westminster”
does he mean Ed Balls ?
112
Option 3 seems the most likely. But the least entertaining.
Perhaps this is the moment for the bulldog Brown to wax Churchillian:
“We know it will be hard, we expect it to be long, we cannot predict or measure its episodes or its tribulations. But one thing is certain, one thing is sure, one thing stands out stark and undeniable, massive and unassailable for all the world to see. We cannot see how deliverance will come or when it will come, but nothing is more certain that every trace of Miliband’s footsteps, every stain of his infected, corroding fingers will be sponged and purged and, if need be, blasted from the surface of the earth.”
103 - Very true. They should decide which Barack Obama to attack and stick with it.
I don’t think the “celebrity” attack is all that sensible anyway. It has a bitter old man element to it. Everyone knows the real reason McCain doesn’t give a speech in Berlin isn’t because he is “focussed on issues facing ordinary Americans” or whatever but because no bugger would turn up to listen. Doesn’t necessarily mean he would be a worse President (although having goodwill abroad would help) but there is no need to make some kind of weird virtue out of being a bit tedious and lacklustre.
102. Very perceptive. This is a manager refusing to work under a failed CEO. I think events are going to move quite sharpish now and as we all know Ed Balls is a lightweight used to altercations with Virgin Rail staff on a Friday evening who can’t give him the richly deserved slap in the face much merited!! This is nothing less than a creeping coup, and as any student of history will know, august is a month famous for political crises!
110 - Didn’t work for Macmillan and he was at least an affable sort who found it hard to make that many enemies. For Brown, it would just create half a dozen people with a clear incentive and opportunity to bring him down. At least cabinet ministers are inside the tent (even if only just in some cases).
When anyone of any stature stands up to him, dyed-in-the-wool-coward, Brown will do what he always does: run away. The emperor has no clothes as people are now beginning to realise.
As for the Brownites, some people are asking what will they all do when Brown is dumped as leader? The answer is simple: there won’t be any Brownites. Geddit
113
i hear he is very good at skipping!
95 The Conservatives were barely squeezed in Glasgow East. Even if the Lib Dems are not which is unlikely the Labour vote would surely crumple and even with a New Leader honeymoon be incredibly difficult to hold the SNP.
39 Animal is right. Dare he fight? Dare he not.
The other fights have been strategic battles along the way.
This is end game.
All he has lived, planned and worked for hangs in the balance.
If he goes, which ever way, he HAS lost.
He will fight dirty. In the FT his pals were saying they would need to call an immediate election. The Tories have been saying this and they won’t be alone. Vince has already said it on QT.
These comment will be seized on and repeated by Brownites over and over again, ramping up the pressure.
Brown’s not a brave person, but he is not the only one in the Labour party.
He understands fear. He plays on it. He’s used it to good effect many times before.’Manageable defeat’ may not be much consolation to those who will as good as lose their seats as soon as the PM heads up the Mall.
102 That Times article about Miliband almost saying goodbye to his staff and canceling the Indian Sept trip does look like he expects to be doing something else.
The final stage is the delegation to Brown and who is going to lead it? It will have to be someone he respects, probably older. Kinnock with the union paymasters?
Miliband must know that someone is going to call on Brown and it will not be himself.
122 for 96.
124. Blair?
Guido has news
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/whips-telephone-canvassing.html
Could be Sh*t or bust come the weekend…
New Insider Advantage poll for Georgia :
McCain 45% .. Obama 41% .. Barr 5%
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/July%202008/7-31-08/Georgia_Prez_Poll73119643.php
17. And who’s been ‘playing away’? (comments)
Oops re 129 re 17 meant 127
So far, it’s only Miliband who has stuck his head out of the trenches. Harman seemed to be about to, but so far seems to have taken cover again. Indeed, ‘When a woman says no, she means no’ was as straight a statement as a politician ever makes (and witty!).
The big question now is whether Miliband has exposed himself too much and will be taken out by Brownian mortar fire, or whether his ‘colleagues’ (if that is the right word) will also go over the top and mount a concerted charge. The former is not impossible, because Miliband seems to have acted too early.
What I think is 100% certain is that there will be no Miliband coronation. Labour won’t make that mistake again. If Brown goes, there will be a real contest, probably with a number of candidates. The outcome of that may not be a Miliband victory - indeed, I expect he’s made some new enemies over the last 36 hours.
Fun, isn’t it?
129
Wasn’t there a reference to that on an earlier thread. I can’t remember who posted it
132 before he got married I believe. This will be someone else.
Can we expect to see The Great Leader in the dock in the Hague?
The Crime: Murder.
The indictment:
“That in the summer of 2008 you did commit the heinous crime of genocide of the Labour Party.
That you remained silent while knives were being used in the cabinet.
That you made mad laughter while biting your nails to the quick.
I see on Guido’s blog they’re now calling Brown ‘Gordoom’. Jesus Christ, they really aren’t a very witty bunch are they. Then again, if they’re as constantly drunk as their moronic drink driving host, then I suppose that’s no surprise.
100.”Miliband’s demeanour is of someone who has made his mind up and has been released from a burden.”
Ted, Miliband is acting like someone who is not scared of Brown anymore…
135 - Have you met him?
135
Charlie, If the boot was on the other foot, yuo would be on there milking it for all its worth. Get a life. Gordoom sounds pretty appropriate to me.
137. No. I wouldn’t really have much to say to anyone who places such a disregard on human life that goes out in his car drunk.
Who is this MP on Sky News at the moment, she’s as mad as the maddest mad thing?
126 charlie Blair?
No, it has to be someone Brown will listen to.
133
Its most unlikely that its a Tory, Tories dont do that sort of thing
141. John Reid would enjoy doing it. I’m waiting for him to suddenly appear on tv to deliver the final nail into Gordon’s coffin.
139 - So that’s a no then. Attacking someone’s politics is what politics is about you know, although you may be getting your cue from the US, in which case, the mistake is understandable.
I presume you’ve never broken the law then, no underage drinking, no drugs, no underage sex, no driving beyond the speed limit and so on.
Rumers of Miliband’s possible resignation in the Torygraph.
Effing ‘ell!
Northerners are effing fick. And the stupid Manc’ bint should be given her .303-to-her-brain. [OK, assumption of brain existing!] Geraldine Smith, we have your number…!
103. Chrisco. What an interesting article. This becomes more intriguing by the second. It does suggests that Miliband either expects to be sacked or plans to resign.
16/1 still available on a 2008 election and 15/8 for 2009. Both look good value to me. If you take the view that Brown will probably be forced out before late 2009 and that this would necessitate a snap election, then 2010 should now be odds against.
144. Underage drinking or sex is not something that harms other people. Also, I haven’t used illegal drugs, no.
Anyone who gets into a car over the limit should be prepared to take all responsibility that comes with it. I personally think it’s a despicable thing to do. I wonder if your views would have been the same if he’d hit a child.
145. Link?
145. What’s changed since yesterday? Surely if he was going to resign he should have done it before the article?
Ha, ha, ha…!
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11848334
PB.com ahead of the pulse…!
149 Politics Home
148 - Tell that to the people terrorised by young thugs drunk on cheap booze or the girl who was barely conscious.
What has that to do with politics in any case? I don’t care for the character assassinations of Brown either, there’s enough ammunition on policy to fire.
150 - woke up, looked down, discovered he actually did have a pair down there?
Appropo of 145. Gordo must be Rubbing his hands, sans nails.
Maybe Milliband has seen the light and is defecting?
100. That’s a very good point. What’s Miliband got to lose by resigning to “challenge” Brown?
Nothing. As you say, if his challenge pays off he is PM, and no matter how brief his tenure, the whole party will thank him for ditching Gord. He’ll likely get a second go in 2014. And he could even lead Labour to a hung parliament.
If he loses, and Gord survives, he is the natural successor after Brown is defeated, crushingly, in 2010.
It’s win/win for him. The only problem is how does he “challenge”?
103 He has no business cancelling trips to India to further his own ambitions. Its an important new market and he should be furthering British interests there rather than ticking them off with his rude behaviour.
Unless of course his presence there was a waste of time and was never going to be productive because he is useless.
Its exactly the sort of self-centred introspection that p*ss*s me right off.
147. Good spot StJohn… I have had a bit of each
S&S @ 116……..an earlier Churchill view is probably better…
Gallipoli…..seems like a good idea!
156. Dare he cross the floor. If he did, what a boost for Dave.
153. Well I’ve never had the urge to start trouble when I’m drunk. However, I would never attempt to drive a car drunk. You can’t ask me personally if I’ve done the things on your list, and then give me examples of what other people do.
I was merely pointing out that the type of people attracted to his blog are probably of a similar ilk to the man himself. i.e not very intelligent.
157. If he resigns, the bandwagon will become unstoppable. Saturated media coverage for Miliband (think Davis, but x10), and pressure on Brown to comment publically. What on earth could he say??
161 - Miliband is labour from down the generations. Would be interesting to have siblings on either side of the house though.
Anyone know if that has ever happened before?
Someone just posted this on Guido’s site
Gordon said…
Fivelive have just said Milipede has cancelled a 4 day foreign trip and had a farewell meeting with his staff - The Times are speculating he’s about to quit to actually challenge Broon
July 31, 2008 5:55 PM
157 seanT
It may not be a win-win. If there’s a contest, others will certainly enter the ring. And the outcome is uncertain, with the electoral college comprising MPs, unions and party members.
162 - Doesn’t it rather undermine your thesis that a) Guido has been very successful at pretty well everything he tries and b) he has one of the very most successful blogs?
You might not like the guy, you might strongly disapprove of his behaviour, but to suggest he is not very intelligent is to ignore all the evidence to the contrary. You might want to ponder whether all intelligent people share your views and your values. I really hope that you don’t really believe that the answer to that question is yes.
152. Can you post a link? I can’t see any recent Telegraph stories
162 - There you go again, you need to understand the difference between attacking politically and ad hominem attacks. The latter make the attacker look petty, stupid, out of touch, vindictive or any combination thereof.
Just because someone disagrees with you politically it doesn’t mean that they are stupid, it just means they have a different view.
The foolish person is the one who believes their own mischaracterisation of others.
164. I think it has happened in the past, but neet to look it up.
164 The Lloyd Georges nearly did it - Megan was Labour MP from 1957, Gwilym had just retired in 1957 from being Home Secretary and had become a Conservative Peer - so were in Parliament on opposite sides but not in HoC.
If Milliband resigns he will be the ‘knife-wielder’.
Harriet must be peeing her pants with laughter at the youngster who just can’t hold on long enough.
167. What has he been successful at, sorry?
Sorry, but defection talk is surely nonsense. Might Miliband not have made a mistake by doing all this whilst Brown is on holiday. Firstly it seems a little harsh that the dear leader (whatever we think of him) can’t get a bit of peace and quiet and secondly it’s rather more cowardly than if Brown was in Downing St.
168. Charlie. Go to PH. Its all there
166. Yes, fair comment. However compared to the alternatives - suffering under Gordon and going down to a terrible defeat, leading to a career in opposition - its still “win win”.
Even if he loses - to Harman or Straw - he will still be a major, honoured, and even dominant figure in Labour: the guy who finally had the guts to challenge Gordon.
If I were him, I’d do it. He’s possibly staring at the end of his political ambitions, if they stick with Gordon and they get three or four terms in opposition following a wipe-out.
Latest Gallup Tracker Obama 45%, McCain 44%
165. See 102 above MTF…
169. I wasn’t making a political point. As you love to analyse every one of my posts, perhaps you could show me where I said anything about disagreeing with any of Guido’s readers political views?
No way Miliband will cross the floor. It would be completely at odds with his comments yesterday about taking the battle to The Tories and being proud of Labour’s record etc…
175. There’s nothing so until you post a link I’ll assume you’re talking rubbish.
Scottish Labour leadership contest….Nominations update
Leader:
Iain Gray: 9 nominations
Cathy Jamieson: 11 nomindations
Andy Kerr: 9 nominations
Deputy Leader:
Bill Butler: 7 nominations
Johann Lamont: 8 nominations
they’re all on the ballot…and I think no-one else will be.
Nominations close tomorrow at noon
181. you must be blind! Or being deliberatly obtuse. And I dont Know How to post a link. Tell me how.
182 - I’m sure you (and probably noone else!) will be interested to know that, unsurprisingly, Caroline Lucas has been nominated to stand as the first leader of the Green Party (of England and Wales).
Six o clock news, BBC: “momentum building behind Miliband”.
Harman, Straw, Cruddas will have to show their hands soon, or The Milipede will be too far ahead to catch up.
185 - no, they’ll have plenty of time later. This way, he’s the only one holding the knife.
183. I must apologise. It was in The Times, not the Telegraph.
173 - There are these sites called google and wikipedia - they really are excellent websites. I suggest you take a look at them. I note that you ignore my broader point, which is that someone can be unpleasant and have views that you regard as obnoxious, but be highly intelligent.
185
I thought Mr Cruddas had ruled himself out?
179 - Your name occasionally enters my consciousness as I glance over the threads, nothing more I’m afraid.
In any case, you know full well Guido’s political slant and you can’t seriously claim that you don’t dislike his politics. At least Miliband knows what an attack by proxy is and when he is using it.
185. Not so sure about that.
Jack’s gonna play it cool.
181. Try here… and calm down.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4437409.ece
184. Neil, thanks, but I see she’s standing against someone who once played “Hotel Porter” in an Inspector Morse telepic!
Miliband could be about to go for it couldn’t he? Maggie had the courage to challenge Heath when others hesitaed and secured the prize. I know they were in opposition but even so. I’m also now thinking about the recent public reaction to David Davis for his brave stand in resigning his seat on a print of principle.
If Miliband resigns one of the great offices of state in order to contest the Labour Party leadership, against an unpopular PM, in order to save the party from electoral oblivion, I think the media and the public will love it.
POLL ALERT
“How long, Nick wonders, before a newspaper commissions a poll to find out whether voters prefer Miliband to Gordon Brown.
Not long at all. The Telegraph will publish the results of just such a poll conducted by YouGov tomorrow morning. It makes unmissable reading.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_hughes/blog/2008/07/31/is_david_miliband_more_popular_than_gordon_brown
Sorry, I’m in a ridiculously bad mood today. Thanks baskerville, it was indeed the times article I read before.
Can we have a list of Foreign Secretary resignations: I can think of Eden and Carrington.
195. What’s the minimum Miliband needs to be able to be confident enough to just go for it? 60-40?
Antifrank - Seeing as Guido’s wikipedia entry currently says he has “converted to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and became a committed Mormon. He has married a range of wives and has fathered 41 children, all girls” I’m not sure if it’s the best source!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Staines
Charlie you are studying your GCSE’s right?..nice bullshi# about being at Uni. Now I suggest you go and watch Hollyoaks and leave serious discussion to the grownup’s.
193 - How could I ever have thought I was giving you information you didnt alread know! Yes Ashley is an actor; I expect Caroline will win fairly easily (dont expect there will be any betting opportunities
). I’ve been out of the loop for a fair while but was a little surprised to see a few other names not giving it a shot.
185. “The line it is drawn, the curse it is cast”
I still don’t think Milliband will win though.
The Telegraph has commissioned a YouGov poll about whether Miliband is more popular than Brown, will be published “tomorrow morning”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_hughes/blog/2008/07/31/is_david_miliband_more_popular_than_gordon_brown
195. Anyone else get pixxed off with Three Line Whip for forcing you to download again to ‘read more’, only to find you’ve already had it all? And then demand you register before you are allowed to complain. Their online efforts show that, just like their print edition, they regularly undermine good political journalism with unprofessional customer care - not to mention a strong streak of Cameromentalism led by Simon Heffer.
195 - for pure, stylish evil, the timing of this YouGov poll by the Telegraph takes some beating.
Look forward to reading *that* tomorrow am.
200. Try ‘GCSEs’ and ‘grownups’ and people might take you a bit more seriously.
201. Neil, don’t worry. I checked who was her opponent after seeing your comment
As I’m a youguv person, does this mea I’ll soon be getting an e-mail from them?
199 - Fair dos, wikipedia may not be shown at its best there. The more general point does stand: dumb questions that people can find answers to themselves really do deserve both barrels.
It just struck me. Millipeed is the stalking hose for STRAW, Straw becomes PM loses GE,,,. Hello Milliband. Everyone else is TOO OLD to take over post the GE.
Creditable?
208
Just had one but it was boring cr*p about visiting London
203 - whatever the poll says, the millipede would get a bounce.
Whats the betting that the Millipede resigns?
210 - quite likely. But there will be others to have a go. Milburn may return… Harperson would certainly try… Johnson?
It all depends on recognition. Once people get to know Miliband they are BOUND to prefer him to brown. of course, that isn’t saying much.
The big issue wil be how big the gap in popularity is.
205
I hope they throw in an ‘or Mr Cameron’ option.
208. It’s hard trying to make a living from YouGov. Only 50p a time. Lol.
197. Hurd, George Brown, Sam Hoare..
215 - I’m not so sure. I think at this point, offered a choice between Brown and anything north of a genital-based case of necrotising fasciitis, most folk will plump for the ‘not Brown’ option. Recognition may not be that important.
218. Didn’t Hurd just retire though? I know it’s a technical point, but I don’t think it got the political world buzzing.
218
Why did Mr Hurd resign?
Milliband is obviously on a roll, he’s probably also getting assurances of support from people who aren’t yet prepared to show themselves.
I think if GB sees things slipping away he’ll probably realise the game is up, who knows he might even be relieved. John Major certainly looked pretty pleased when he lost the GE.
203
I do not need YouGov to tell me that Milliband is more popular than Gordon brown.
I bet Ken Livingstone is as well - even amongst Labour voters..:-)
re 203. As was predicted on PB overnight. My guess is that the Telegraph wouldn’t be promoting this if it was helpful to Brown.
re 204. Yes - it’s all part of their plan to increase the number of page views. The Speccie’s Coffee House does the same.
Well, these are interesting developments. Perhaps surprisingly, the odds for Brown to leave in Q4 this year have drifted out since I laid the option, and I’ve taken my money back off the table. I still find it difficult to see why Miliband would see now as the ideal time to launch a leadership bid, but there’s a danger of the momentum running away rather like it did for Brown over the election last year: either he has to put up or back down - but he’s not there yet.
221. He didn’t: he retired.
220/221. to become a director of NatWest bank..
222 - In his autobiography, John Major claimed that the day of his general election defeat was one of the happiest days of his life. I’m not sure that I believe him, mind.
200. I wish people like you would lay off charlie. For obvious reasons Labour posters are rare on this site at the moment, but those that do post are a valuable insight for those of us trying to predict future events. It’s really pathetic when posters who add nothing to the site but bile attack someone just because they support another party.
Oh this this is so much fun!Surely gordoom and the downing st bacteria are planning some kind of decapitation before they run out into the sunlight.They will never be taken alive,them being badly wounded and the bolivian army surrounding them holed up in the old chapel and that…
160- Yeah, I suppose Brown is more analogous to the Churchill of 1915 than that of ‘41. Oh well, just trying to help the guy…
228. Were Surrey on good form?
224
“it’s all part of their plan to increase the number of page views. The Speccie’s Coffee House does the same.”
That’s unfair. There is no settled agreement on one best way to format an article for web display. Some sites have one long page, others break the article over several pages.
Will Gordon ever take a holiday again if he survives this?
Antifrank Believe JM - he had plans for the calm after the turmoil. There are few PMs, if any, who really can rise above the abuse and stress. Even Lucky Jim and Thatcher showed the strain before the end.
Brown must feel very bruised over the last six months and the current air raids by his lieutenants must be hard to bear especially so for a man who is so sensitive to personal criticism and so psychologically insecure.
229 - Well I agree; as I was trying at the time to point out the worthlessness of ad hominem attacks I suppose it might bring it home though.
236. I was referring to JH’s post, not yours.
226. it was viewed as a resignation at the time…
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_/ai_n13990483
221
You remimded me of “The Prisoner” .. “I am not a number , I am a free man”
I appreciate that Socrates, but I generally don’t let bitter postings affect me. I accept that I have nowhere near the political nouse of many posters on here, I’ve only been following politics for 3 years or so, and I imagine many of my opinions do come across as immature and poorly constructed! However, I enjoy contributing, I enjoy the banter with the Tories, and this is definitely the place to be when something is happening in the political world!
My point about Guido had nothing to do with his politics, I merely commented that people that drink drive, in my opinion, are stupid. I’m sure he’s intelligent enough to type out articles on his computer, but clearly he has deep rooted problems!
229. Agreed. I like lefties on here, gives me someone to ridicule and torment. Wouldn’t be the same without ‘em. They are a timid and vanishing species, so we’d best be nice to the few we have left.
225. Told you David. This is one of those free-wheeling bubbles (er you know what I mean) of political hysteria, that develop volition all their own - no one is quite in control but they are so powerful have to come to a head, often destructively - though sometimes they suddenly go pop and disappear - and you wonder what happened.
I am reminded of Simon Armitage’s fine poem:
The Tyre
Just how it came to rest where it rested,
miles out, miles from the last farmhouse even,
was a fair question. Dropped by hurricane
or aeroplane perhaps for some reason,
put down as a cairn or marker, then lost.
Tractor-size, six or seven feet across,
it was sloughed, unconscious, warm to the touch,
its gashed, rhinoceros, sea-lion skin
nursing a gallon of rain in its gut.
Lashed to the planet with grasses and roots,
it had to be cut. Stood up it was drunk
or slugged, wanted nothing more than to slump,
to spiral back to its circle of sleep,
dream another year in its nest of peat.
We bullied it over the moor, drove it,
pushed from the back or turned it from the side,
unspooling a thread in the shape and form
of its tread, in its length, and in its line,
rolled its weight through broken walls, felt the shock
when it met with stones, guided its sleepwalk
down to meadows, fields, onto level ground.
There and then we were one connected thing,
five of us, all hands steering a tall ship
or one hand fingering a coin or ring.
Once on the road it picked up pace, free-wheeled,
then moved up through the gears, and wouldn’t give
to shoulder-charges, kicks; resisted force
until to tangle with it would have been
to test bone against engine or machine,
to be dragged in, broken, thrown out again
minus a limb. So we let the thing go,
leaning into the bends and corners,
balanced and centred, riding the camber,
carried away with its own momentum.
We pictured an incident up ahead:
life carved open, gardens in half, parted,
a man on a motorbike taken down,
a phone-box upended, children erased,
police and an ambulance in attendance,
scuff-marks and the smell of broken rubber,
the tyre itself embedded in a house
or lying in a gutter, playing dead.
But down in the village the tyre was gone,
and not just gone but unseen and unheard of,
not curled like a cat in the graveyard, not
cornered in the playground like a reptile,
or found and kept like a giant fossil.
Not there or anywhere. No trace. Thin air.
Being more in tune with the feel of things
than science and facts, we knew that the tyre
had travelled too fast for its size and mass,
and broken through some barrier of speed,
outrun the act of being driven, steered,
and at that moment gone beyond itself
towards some other sphere, and disappeared.
Simon Armitage
Where is Gabble these days? In Southwold?
242. Spain..
From Andrew Sparrow’s Guardian blog:
“I heard a story yesterday about a senior Downing Street official who went to have Sunday lunch with friends. He was discreet, as officials normally are, but he couldn’t hide the fact that his Blackberry just wouldn’t stop. Over the course of the visit he apparently received 72 emails - all from Gordon Brown.”
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/gordon_brown_10_strategies_he.html
203. Interesting. Polling over the summer will be crucial, especially if other contenders pile in early. My guess is that the polls will show a bounce back for Labour, and if that’s the case then there might be pressure for Gord to stand down sooner rather than later.
Dave must be sh*tting bricks at the moment.
244 - Silly bugger. Does he not know where the off switch is?
237 - I know. :confused:
245
I’d say he’s more likely to be laughing than anything else.
244 / 246 - Sounds like the stories the Brute reported a few days ago. I didnt really believe them either.
I doubt Camo is too worried at the moment. Obviously he’d prefer Brown to stay, but until a new leader emerges, the Tories will stay sky high in the polls IMO.
246.
72 emails sent to one person in… what…. three hours? is beyond “silly buggers”, its obsessive-compulsive. Actively pathological.
245. Bricks? Golden ones.
What if YouGov shows 10% support for Gordon and 90% for Miliband? Never heard of ‘im.
Miliband vs Brown poll - I wonder how many Tories have had the good sense to opt for Brown. Presumably though, the poll was restricted to Labour voters only.
249. Yes, of course. Hundreds of people, from all political backgrounds, many of them with no apparent motive whatsoever, are getting together to lie about the prime minister, so as to paint him a as a rude and obsessive weirdo with a hideous temper, whereas of course he is the opposite.
It’s a conspiracy I tell you!
251 - I was talking about the civil servant. Obviously Gordon Brown is beyond hope, but then he’s a politician, so what do you expect?
Am I the only Tory who doesn’t give a flying fart who leads Labour into the GE? I just want Dave to demolish Labour as revenge for 97 and the devastation Pa Broon has caused on savings, investments, pensions and personal wealth (other than mickey mouse house values)since he got his hands on other peoples’ hard earned purse strings.
Of course the voyer in me wants to watch Labour, new/old/whatever rip itself to shreds before the electorate does. I just hope that having fired the starting pistol, Milliband has the guts to go for broke.
However what we really need are some by-elections or MPs scunnered with Brown’s lurch to the 70s to cross the floor.
I can see this all blowing hot and cold before blowing out and Pa Broon surviving until Jun 2010 but if he doesn’t, let’s hope its bloody
254:
250 - I suspect that the notion that a new leader will mean that Labour return to their rightful place ahead in the polls is considerably wide of the mark. If they go through with this the best outcome is that nothing much changes. I suspect that Labour will find themselves in a much worse position.
256 Easterross “if he doesn’t, let’s hope its bloody”
I think we can count on that.
241. That’s very good. And yes, you did tell me (I do listen from time to time!).
Actually, I’m still think it’s quite likely that both Brown and Miliband will be in the cabinet come October, but the odds are lengthening all the time these briefings continue.
I just cant stop laughing
Does Labour really think that geek-boy Milliband is the answer to their problems? Hahahahahahaaa…
You see, this is what happens when inexperienced party hacks take over a political party. They start to think stupid things. Gordon is a problem, but Millipede is not the answer…
Nasa: there is water on Mars…
244 Not so discreet that he couldn’t resist telling his friends who had sent all 72 emails.
229.Socrates…you seem to have mistaken me for someone who gives a diddly about what you think..
Charlie seems more than capable of standing up for himself and I suggest you leave him to it and keep your sanctimonious dribblings to yourself.
Charlie was sounding like a 12 year old with his attacks on Guido and I called him out on it..
I hate to say it, but I think youthful inexperience has allowed The Millipede to underestimate the power of The Big Clunking Fist, and he’s going to be splattered.
The rest of the cowardly contenders will slink back into the shadows - Pa Bruns going nowhere - he’s fought hard to claw his useless way to the top.
He’ll still be at the helm when the good ship Nu Labour finally sinks below the waves in 2010.
253. Labour voters only? I would be very surprised; I guess they will poll all voting allegiances.
261. Unlike your experienced old hand Cameron, eh. Your ‘geek-boy’ insults are just as meaningless as any ‘posh-boy’ ones thrown at Camo I’m afraid.
182.Andrea, Cathy got the most nominations! The sketches on “Only an excuse” will be interesting.
I did mention the other day about a sequence of events and to watch out for a poison pen job by a heavyweight of some kind in the next couple of months. As it turns out it took a couple of days…there will be more to come.
I know there is a body of opinion that reckons Brown wont slug it out but there is another side to the coin, the bunker mentality which is most definitely there. If you simply refuse to get it, you are in effect fighting it out, even though you are completely different plane than everyone else.
With no easy formal way of Miliband just launching a challenge,. Brown doesnt have to run away. Yes its wounding but not enough senior people have come to the door yet saying get the hell out. That move has yet to come, be it a direct visit or via making the whole shooting match at Westminster ungovernable.
New Research2000/DKos for Idaho :
McCain 53% .. Obama 37%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/31/12214/5122/347/560030
‘With no easy formal way of Miliband just launching a challenge,. Brown doesnt have to run away.’
Arghh can people please stop saying this. If Miliband formally announces he is standing, he’ll definitely find the required nominations. It’s really not that difficult to do!!
265. The Big Clunking Fist was only strong when he could rely on a whole load of people to support him and more importantly destroy his enemies. They aren’t there anymore. He’s now exposed without any armour or weapons to defend himself with.
254 it could be - we discussed Gordon’s gang starting on character assassination; odd that over last week there has been these glimpses into the enraged life of the PM; almost if someone was planning them.
Unlike Neil I think they all have a lot of truth behind them, though some may have been embroidered in the telling but there seems to have been a lot of Gordon kicking /screaming /throwing / stapling himself /emailing in CAPITALS /insulting stories around these last few days.
FCO deny “farewell” story…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Foreign-Office-Denies-David-Miliband-Cancelled-India-Trip-To-Launch-Labour-Leadership-Bid/Article/200807415060987?lpos=Politics_1&lid=ARTICLE_15060987_Foreign%2BOffice%2BDenies%2BDavid%2BMiliband%2BCancelled%2BIndia%2BTrip%2BTo%2BLaunch%2BLabour%2BLeadership%2BBid
254 - Not suggesting a conspiracy - just pointing out that a blog citing an anonymous official’s “friends” is hardly the most reliable of sources. Just watch as the legend grows and eventually becomes accepted as fact no matter how dodgy the original source.
New PPIC poll for California :
McCain 35% .. Obama 50%
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_708MBS.pdf
273 “almost as if someone was planting them” though planning works too.
270 - Dems will be more interested in the senate race (Idaho is nailed on GOP, however reduced the margin) which is within 10%. That’s pretty unheard of in Idaho which is Wyoming-like in its antipathy to Democrats.
274 - And now we have Ministries of State drifting rudderless and out of control.
Is there a point at which QE2 has to step in and suggest a GE for the good of The Country?
256. Easterross - I agree with you. For Conservatives this is the time to sit back and enjoy the carnage. As far as I’m concerned Labour can carry on this in-fighting until the GE.
264. You might be able to imagine how everyone feels towards your thoughts then!
Is it all a bit Soviet-like how it’s virtually impossible to depose a Labour leader.
Charlie, your opinions as just as important as those of any other PBer. At the end of the day you have no fewer and no more votes than anyone else so keep telling it to us as you see it.
Dont worry about being in a minority. As a Scottish Tory I’ve been in a minority for decades and many of the Scottish LibDems on here rubbish my every comment esecially my prediction for the result of Glasgow East
I hope for your sake at the end of this present little local difficulty you end up with a party which believes in something given that it hasn’t since the day the son of the former senior Edinburgh Tory activist hijacked your party.
282. It’s not.
283. Thanks, it’s rather depressing trying to defend a party that’s so empty at the moment.
274 Perhaps noone wanted to meet Millipeed in India
275. Even Gordon’s “friends” admit he’s obsessive - five hours sleep, gets up at six, calls editors at seven, shouts at the staff etc etc.
The reason these stories are coming out now are, I suspect, cause Gordon has annoyed a lot of people with his lack of personal skills, and the various underlings he has abused are taking their revenge. Hitherto they might have been scared; now the Clunking Fist doesn’t seem so duanting.
I’ve no doubt there is a bit of embroidery, as Ted says, I’ve also no doubt the stories are basically true. Just go back to the various remarks made about Gordon by his Labour colleagues - “psychologically flawed” etc.
It all fits. Why on earth did they coronate him?
282 Only virtually not actually. Remember Kruschev. Perhaps Brown will have to sit in Cabinet as his Colleagues denounce him in turn…..
Off-Topic question:
The local newspaper reports that an 11-year-old boy was banned from taking part in a school sports day because “he was rude to the teacher, he kissed his teeth several times and was rude and insolent throughout the day”.
What the treacle pudding does “kissed his teeth” mean? I’ve tried googling it but I haven’t found any meaningful definition or description.
288. Without meaning to be racist, it’s a thing black people do to be condescending. Try literally kissing your teeth, and you’ll get a good idea.
288 - I believe the act of kissing or sucking on ones teeth is to suggest that the individual being insulted should go away and suck on their mothers ‘genitalia’.
286 ….. and read Tom Bower’s book.
271. He still has to stand Charlie and if you look, he’s rattling cages without wanting to actually stand against Brown. The ideal for Miliband and others is Brown to go first.
A direct challenge is a last resort.
Brown will be seen as a coward should he fail to sack Miliband - does he do it now or when he returns from his hols?
I thought at the time that when Blair mentioned the great clunking fist he was being somewhat sarcastic.
I still cannot believe that Brown will go quietly or willingly, IDS may have been happy to become a footnote as an opposition leader ( maybe also Ming) But I cant believe that Brown willingly have his career marked in History as a tail end charlie.
Although it looks hard to see any grounds for recovery , the cumulative impact of higher energy prices and a slowing economy look to provide a grim backdrop to next years European and local elctions.
292. My point is Yokel, if Miliband rang up 40MPs tonight or whatever it is, and got their explicit support, he could launch a leadership bid tomorrow. It’s not as impossible as people are making out.
Where is the Hon Member for PB? Nick we would appreciate your thoughts on the day’s events. I hadn’t realised your Wiki entry refers to you being a PBer.
286 today we leant he has taken to throwing staplers (presumably his minders keep mobiles out of reach now).
Nick has been purposely quiet over the last couple of days, and I don’t blame him.
295. Not until he resigns or is sacked from the cabinet, even then, not that quickly…
298: He knows he’ll be pestered as to which way he’s voting
Miliband is no Geek, and I should know being a proud geek myself.
Miliband is just a spod, I’m afraid. And a drab one at that.
295 - The problem is that you have to find 70 very very desperate souls, with nothing to lose. It would be tricky. Whilst not impossible, the reason that you need nominations from 25% of MP’s to launch a hostile takeover is precisely to prevent such a thing from happening.
Don’t worry Charlie. you’re not the only ‘poor’labour boy who posts on this site and don’t worry ’bout the natives. their bark is worse than their bite.
ps labour to win next GE by a landslide!
pps Don’t know though how our Nick puts up with the abuse!
295. Of course it’s quite possible, Miliband being as brainy as they say, that he has thought all this through - and has quietly signed up enough MPs and ministers to force a challenge in September.
I find it hard to believe news of this wouldn’t have leaked. But Miliband’s moves do look very carefully premeditated. In his interviews he had all the verbs just right - Gordon Brown “can” lead us forward, etc.
That takes some forethought.
No coincidence that he timed it into his pre-booked Radio 2 interview as well IMO.
302 295 - The problem is that you have to find 70 very very desperate souls, with nothing to lose. It would be tricky - Given the current Polls I’d have thought it quite easy to find 70 desperate Labour MPs.
303. £60K a year softens the blow.
304 - In that case if I were Brown I would sack him. If he figures that the challenge is coming anyway might as well have a raw display of Prime Ministerial power beforehand. It might scare enough people off.
295. Of course nothing is impossible but you know what they are doing. They are turning the screw on Gordon to the point where he throws the towel in or is told to go.
This is vicious circle stuff, the more the screw is turned, the more weakened his position, the more weakened his position the easier it is to get him to exit. And if he doesnt exit easily his position is weakened such that someone has to come in to ’save the party’. Thus it clears for a direct bid, while hoping it wion’t be needed. But if the sequence is started (and I think it has), stopping it is actually going to make things worse because Brown won’t recover easily in the eyes of voters.
At this stage I don’t think anyone credible wants to be seen as making a direct formal challenge, yet.
306 - Perhaps, but then the problem is that they would go from likely to lose their seats to guarenteed to lose their seats. There is no way that Labour can win the next election now.
289/290. Without meaning to be racist, it’s a thing black people do to be condescending. Try literally kissing your teeth, and you’ll get a good idea.
I believe the act of kissing or sucking on ones teeth is to suggest that the individual being insulted should go away and suck on their mothers ‘genitalia’.
But how can I “try literally kissing my teeth” when that is impossible? The whole point of my question is that the term “kissing his teeth” doesn’t mean anything because it is physically impossible.
Does it mean putting one’s lower lip and upper teeth in the “F” position and then sucking inwards? Or does it mean putting the teeth together and sucking inwards like “SH” sound? Or something else?
293. He’s in too weak a position to sack him.
312 - If I was Brown, Miliband would have been gone already. To hell with the consequences. If you are staring a leadership coup in the face you need to get ruthless.
310. I don’t understand your logic here? Surely a Labour MP in a marginal has nothing to lose by voting for a new leader. Seriously, you may fantasise about the Tories hitting 60% in the polls, but it’s not gonna happen. The current polling is as good as it’s going to get, and a new Labour leader might not improve it, but it might, so why would they go from likely to losing their seats, to guaranteed?
312. And Miliband knows it.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89b782de-5f24-11dd-91c0-000077b07658.html
But something of a fight-back is beginning.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5g9fkwyZtHsu4aQIhwsJwWqVYVdlg
But I agree that a complete smack-down is required very promptly.
Otherwise the ‘leadership contest’ genie will be out of the bottle.
294. I thought at the time that when Blair mentioned the great clunking fist he was being somewhat sarcastic.
When he first said it, I was wondering why everybody in the media immediately assumed that the “clunking fist” was supposed to be Gordon Brown rather than anybody else. (I’m still wondering).
313, hmm. Brown’s wanted to be PM since he was six.
I wonder. If he sacked Miliband then the Milipede would go all out for a leadership bid. But who would back him? He isn’t a union man. Would the Blairites? The membership?
If you leave him in place you look weak, but Brown has ever since last conference season. Unless someone actually calls a leadership challenge directly there’s no chance of a change.
Could Brown be tempted to wait until the holiday ends then announce a reshuffle, rewarding the loyal and punishing the treacherous?
302. No. The problem is you have to have a candidate, and Miliband is not “a candidate”.
If it came out that he was seriously plotting, while in the cabinet, the media would crucify him, like they did Portillo in 1995…
He then could not possibly win any contest, least of all a democratic one as occurs in Labour.
Miliband is positioning himself in the event of a “vacancy”, nothing more…
308 - And David Miliband would leave No 10 to say: “on Tuesday I set out my prescription how to secure a Labour victory at the next election. The Prime Minister does not agree, and I am therefore leaving the Cabinet. I have the highest admiration for the Prime Minister who [insert achievements]. However, it is apparent that a change of direction is required. It is vital for the prosperity of this country that we continue to have a Labour Government. The Prime Minister us putting that in jeopardy. Accordingly, I am announcing today that I am putting my name forward to challenge for leadership of the Labour party. I do so not out of vanity, but out of duty to my party and country, so that I can set out my vision for the direction of Government and win back this country’s support for this great Government.”
318 - Possibly, but I’d sack the Foreign Secretary immediately…
314.Charlie. But they do potentially have a lot to lose. They know that a new Labour leader will be under a lot of pressure to have an early Gen Election. Many Labour MP’s could then lose their salary and have reduced pension rights.
It’s about time that Gordon Brown had some good luck. Maybe therefore John MacDougall should be told its ok to resign on the grounds of genuine ill-health and Jack MacConnell can take up his post in Malawi right away. After all Labour would easily hold their former safest seat in Scotland and that of their former First Minister, wouldn’t they
Of course I am being ironical but it would give you lot something real to start venting your collective spleens on and probably earn some money too.
Does anyone want to predict the Euro elections for 2009? Scotland goes down to 6 seats from 7 and conventional wisdom says that we Tories should lose our second seat but right now could anyone argue against the possibility of SNP 3, Lab 1, Tory 1 and LibDem 1?
316. One of the MPs “fighting back” is Bob Marshall-Andrews. Ha-ha, I don’t think Milipede will be too troubled about this development.
320 - And when the laughter at the vanity comment subsided then what…
318. Apparently there was rumour of a reshuffle in August…with a new Deputy PM, called Alan Johnson…apparently.
320.
“How long have these disagreements been going on, Mr. Miliband?”
“And why are the rest of the cabinet (obviously) agreeing with Gordon, and not with you?”
I have perusing the Spectater today and have come to a definate conclusion regarding Charles Moore. I have noticed in the past, first, his distain of Cameron when first elected leader of the Tory party. And then over the next 2 years sniping at him in a sly why, in his many columns.
Why would Moore, who professes to be a conservative, do this, if it wasn’t for jealousy of Cameron’s success, ( so far ).
When all right-wing people are rejoicing at labour’ current predicament, Moore pours cold water in todays Spectater. He writes:
It is odd. Exactly a year ago, the story was so strongly the other way that the media ignored any evidence that would contradict it, and old Tory friends of mine assured me that Mr Brown was a proper conservative patriot from whom we had nothing to fear. Is the same thing happening the other way round today? Could things be less unpromising for Labour than everyone at present thinks? There are two factors worth considering. One is that Labour has not yet regressed to the condition which made it unelectable for so long. It is not deeply divided on policy, not constantly threatened with takeover by the hard Left, and not in thrall to the trade unions. True, all these things are now moving in the wrong direction, but only gradually. The second point is that the electoral arithmetic remains very unfavourable for the Tories. They got only 8,772,598 votes last time (Labour, admittedly, got only 9.5 million). When they last won a general election, in 1992, they got 14,093,007. Although by-elections now show huge swings, the Labour position in this year’s less volatile local elections was not atrocious. In 1978, for example, the Conservatives had 24 seats in Liverpool, 33 in Newcastle and 46 in Manchester. Today, after what was considered their success in May, they have a total of one seat between the three (in Manchester). In the elections to the Greater London Assembly which took place at the same time as Boris Johnson won the mayoralty, Labour increased its vote in 12 out of the 14 boroughs. Yes, Mr Brown is terribly unpersuasive; yes, Labour will be blamed for economic woes; yes, the Labour tide is going out. But it does not automatically follow that, next time, it must lose.
And further, to dig the bayonet in:
It has become axiomatic ( I have found myself saying it, without thinking) that the public will not stand for yet another change of Labour leader without an election. Is this really true? We may well feel cross at the moment that it happens, but since there would be nothing we could do about it, we would quite quickly settle down if we liked the new person. If we did not, the government would be in no worse a pickle than it is at present. It is now too late for Labour to see through important changes in legislation, or even in policy, before the next election. As the governing party, it retains two key advantages. One is deciding, in effect, who is the Prime Minister and the other is deciding the date of the poll. It must be prepared to use both those powers with absolute ruthlessness.
If the above does not show warped values by Moore, I dont know what does.
the thing I find hard to take about Miliband is the fact that he bottled it last time, and isn’t prepared to take a really bold stand now either. What did he have to lose? If Brown crushed him, the worse that could have happened is to be exiled to the backbenches, and then he would really be a shoo-in now. Cook made a stand and voluntarily left for the backbenches, and imagine what a powerful position he would have been in now had he lived. Miliband just should have had the courage of his convictions first time round - but some of these types give the impression of being so desperate for office that they lose any sense for playing a long term strategy. It really makes me wonder how they will cope in opposition
328. Ah, so you’re a conservative in the American GWB mould… preferring ‘truthiness’ to analysis.
What exactly are the warped values on display?
Labour only need to lose 21 seats to lose their majority. Miliband knows this and knows that if he becomes leader, he will have to call a snap election and he will lose and be blamed. His political prospects will be tarnished to such an extent that he will never hold senior public office again.
320 antifrank are you a speechwriter? That little ditty seemed very realistic. Do we have any PBers within British Telecom? Do we know if anyone is ordering a few extra phone lines for the kids computers!!
New Pew Research Center poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
http://people-press.org/report/438/inflation-economy-obama-overseas-trip
Moore = Heffer = old farts..
332 Can we know the dates your articles will appear on? I suggest Morus do a similar lot for Wales.
330. If you cant see it. you must be a labour supporter.
333. Can we get your antennae to measure Lib Dem chances in Swansea West. It could impinge heavily on bets for Lib Dem seat number in Wales after the next General.
The likes of Moore would rather that the Conservatives under Cameron lost.
When is this poll going to leak???
331. well if he thinks that, why doesn’t he just shut up? presumably he must be more optimistic than that
336. Wrong again. So please explain what are these ‘warped values’?
335 Punter I have no idea. Mike is planning a range of warm-ups for 2010. The only worry is we might not have long enough for them all to appear if the present Pa Broon v Millipede handbags at dawn squabble develops into anything serious.
341. read 338.
320. Very good. It would get the media in to an absolute frenzy. Can you imagine the house if/when he gave his resignation speech it would be in the same league as Geoffrey Howe’s.
If Brown sacked him, would he get a speech in the house?
329. One of the big what-ifs of recent British political history. What if Cook hadn’t tragically keeled over?
The man had a major ego. I am sure he would have challenged Brown for the leadership. With the moral force of his Iraq stance behind him, and the Blairites covertly backing him, Cook might well have won…
SELL!
SELL!
SELL!
SELL!
SELL!
SELL!
Total economic meltdown caused by Labour!!!!!!!!!!!!
House prices below 1980 levels soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
336 I’m not a labour supporter and it looks a perfectly sensible take on the situation to me; nothing is pre-ordained and reversing 1997 in one election is a huge ask. Cameron knows this and also knows that a lot can change in 18 months.
As for the “must have an immediate election” Moore is quite right to say that’s not pre-ordained. If Labour believe they are going to lose badly then why hold an election? There’s little punishment losing badly later and always a chance they could do better.
328 In 1978, for example, the Conservatives had 24 seats in Liverpool, 33 in Newcastle and 46 in Manchester. Today, after what was considered their success in May, they have a total of one seat between the three (in Manchester). - SFW. The Tories could easily have a majority in excess of 100 without anything from them. In 1983 they got wiped out in Liverpool and scored a majority of 144. So that point proves what.
323. Easterross. your Scottish Euro prediction is clearly a possibility. My prediction is SNP 2, LD 1 and Labour and the Tories close - one getting 2 and the other 1.
338. Only too true. And sad when thwarted ambition turnes in on itself.
348. God knows. Ask Charles Moore.
347. They would have to call an election. It would be like the referendum pressure on Blair before 2005, times a million.
“When are we going to have a general election, Mister Miliband?”
Over and over again Labour would be asked this question, how can you change prime minister TWICE without consulting the people? What could they reply: “F*** off, we do what we like. We’re the government?”
The media pressure would be intense. It’s a huge stick to hand to the opposition.
They would have to call a GE.
It is a rather amusing thought that many of those on the current Government benches will be hoping to get their PEerages during the next Conserative government.
I wonder if Dave would try and stop Traitor Davies and Sainsbury Woodward getting theirs or alternatively he might feel that such toadie types on the Labour red benches will help him in the Upper House.
On the “Gordon is a lucky PM” theme, have we any idea when the CPS are liekly to make their announcement on Peter Hain’s forgotten 100,000+ donations? If Pa Broon times it well he could have 2 Scottish by-elections and 1 Welsh one on the same day.
328
I don’t see anything anti-Cameron in the text you quote. Mr Moore is just offering what he considers to be a reasoned summery of the facts.
(After Mr Parris, I think Mr Moore is a super columist, so I’m biased
)
[345] - Cook would have done a lot better than Brown (wouldn’t anyone the cynics say). He had the confidence to resign rather than to go along with the Iraq war for the sake of his career, or positioning, or whatever.
I think then that he would never have made the clangers on 42 days, 10p tax, etc for this reason, that he had more than political positioning to cling to, unlike, it turns out, Brown.
352. Very simple, because we have a parliamentary system of government, not a presidential one. But the point still stands - if Labour are going to get annihilated anyway, they don’t have too much to lose by holding on, as entirely is their constitutional right, whatever else the Daily Mail may scream on a daily basis.
352
There’s a difference between media pressure, and legal requirement.
348 despite my post that Moore is making some sensible points - in 1978 there was Greater Manchester Council as well as Manchester Borough Council, where were those Conservative Councillors?
I have serious doubts about the Brown vs Miliband poll, especially if it includes voters across the political spectrum, instead of just involving Labour supporters.
Thinking about the basic arithmetic, it is probably fair to assume that 70% of non-Labour voters, comprising approx 75% of the electorate, would opt for Miliband - Brown being seen as “Public Enemy #1″ in their eyes. In addition, perhaps 50% of Labour voters would vote against Brown, who they would identify as the main reason for Labour’s current unpopularity.
Add these two components together and Miliband is seen as receiving a support level of around 65%, which would be very misleading in my view. Anything less than this percentage should be seen as quite encouraging for Brown.
354. Of course your biased.
358. As most people on here know, largely thanks to Sean Fear, the ‘no seats in Liverpool/Manchester etc’ thesis is entirely a red herring.
325, 327, 332, 344 - My point was that if Gordon Brown sacks David Miliband, he’s ready to strike right now. If he stands, others will pile in, and goodbye GB. Which means he’s effectively unsackable. The interesting question is what he does next if he doesn’t get sacked. He needs to keep his quasi-campaign going.
355. Cook would also have prevented, I feel, a Labour meltdown in Scotland - and maybe elsewhere.
The Iraq thing would have been huge. His mere election would have gone a long way to cleansing the party of its Iraq sins. Sadly for Labour, I think a long period in opposition is now the only way it can shrive its corrupt, war-mongering soul.
353 “If Pa Broon times it well he could have 2 Scottish by-elections and 1 Welsh one on the same day.”
That really would be something to savour.
And m,entioning Hain naturally brings us to David Abrahams. When — if ever — will we get the reports on these scandals?
360 The right wing commentator that gets me is Janet Daley - she just loved Gordon last summer and dissed Cameron unreservedly, fell out of love with Gordon and started making occasional supportive sounds about Dave. Her latest column seems to positively welcome Miliband and ordains he’ll offer Dave C real competition.
Cameron must be the first Conservative leader to not have the Telegraph, Mail and Murdoch press onside - and he has still managed to achieve 20% leads.
361. Many of these inner city seats have also changed beyond all recognition, in the last 30 years, thanks to mass immigration, and other social changes.
Three decades ago, saying “you haven’t got a seat in inner Manchester/Sheffield/Bradford/Leeds” etc etc was tantamount to saying: “you have no support amongst ordinary, white, working class Brits.”
Now, having “no seats in inner Manchester”, etc, merely means you aren’t so popular with the underclass, gays, and ethnic minorities. Meanwhile the white working classes have fled to Essex, Cheshire, etc, where the Tories do very well indeed.
365. Janet Daley is, what my psychologist friend would call, a window-licker
363. I doubt Cook could have prevented anything.
99% of all women voters hated him for the way he divorced his wife and would never have voted for him under any circumstances.
363
“the only way it can shrive its corrupt, war-mongering soul.”
I take it you don’t agree with Nick Cohen’s argument that the left has an obligation to oppose fascism wherever it’s found?
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Whats-Left-Liberals-Lost-Their/dp/0007229704/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1217532296&sr=1-1
368. Is there polling evidence to back that up?
The Brothers say No to Miliband….
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89b782de-5f24-11dd-91c0-000077b07658.html
Why would David Cameron be over bothered about not having any of 6 or 7 seats at most in two or three north of England cities if his party holds or gains most of the seats which ring those cities. After all successive boundary changes have reduced the number of seats within such cities.
I remember in 1979 it was a “disaster” for the Scottish Tories to lose 1 of our 2 seats in Glasgow and of course we lost the other at a by-election in 1982 on the death of Tam Strathclyde’s father. However that was 2 out of 14 seats. Now almost 30 years later there are only 7/8 seats where there were 14 when we last held one.
I dont have the statistics for Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle or Sheffield but I assume population movements are the same with the number of city seats shrinking as the suburban ones have grown and many/most of them, if not already Tory are expected to go that way at the GE.
371. Of course the unions want Gordoomed to stay on - they have him by the short and curlies!
370. Not formal no. But go back to the newspapers of the time and check what an outpouring of vitriol there was. IMO he deserved it.
368 Plus he was a very Scottish Scot and, rightly or wrongly, not seen as being a particularly attractive personality
364 Hypothetically would it be PC or LD challenging.
Weathercock, I’d love Cameron to win and I think he will, but even I have that 3:00am moment when all the contrary evidence comes to the fore. I put the article down to no more than that.
Moore’s main concern is that Cameron doesn’t renege on his promise to allow a vote on the repeal of the hunting ban. As long as he doesn’t wriggle out of this, Moore will stay onside.
372
All Mr Moore is saying in the quoted text is that there no such thing are a sure thing, and the Conservatives can’t afford to be complacent.
I don’t see why that should make him a reactionary, a turncoat, or a bad egg. It’s just perspective.
“The second point is that the electoral arithmetic remains very unfavourable for the Tories. They got only 8,772,598 votes last time (Labour, admittedly, got only 9.5 million). When they last won a general election, in 1992, they got 14,093,007. Although by-elections now show huge swings, the Labour position in this year’s less volatile local elections was not atrocious. In 1978, for example, the Conservatives had 24 seats in Liverpool, 33 in Newcastle and 46 in Manchester. Today, after what was considered their success in May, they have a total of one seat between the three (in Manchester). In the elections to the Greater London Assembly which took place at the same time as Boris Johnson won the mayoralty, Labour increased its vote in 12 out of the 14 boroughs. Yes, Mr Brown is terribly unpersuasive; yes, Labour will be blamed for economic woes; yes, the Labour tide is going out. But it does not automatically follow that, next time, it must lose.”
why would anyone take Janet Daley seriously? She is a hectoring banshee of an American who looks like Helen Mirren with a hangover ( and I like Helen Mirren before anyone has a go at me). She reminds me of the Patsy character out of Ab Fab but without any semblence of humour.
My favourite comedy act is Baroness Billingham. She goes on the SKY News paper review every week and in her every comment shows she has no graps of reality. She believes Pa Broon has been the most super dooper Chancellor since the abacus was invented.
Foxhunting will stay banned by at least 2:1 on a free vote in the Commons. This sort of legislation never gets repealed.
Dave B, Moore also has a weekly column to fill. This article full of facts lifted from any good reference book takes up a great deal of the space and leaves him plenty of time to enjoy the summer weather.
380. In a tory commons? Are there many tories who support the ‘ban’?
380. Depends how big the Tory majority is.
381
Very much doubt that.
It’s very unpopular with rural voters. They’re organised. And the thing seems to be completely unenforceable anyway.
381
Peter, all Cameron has to do is to facilitate a free vote and he will have done what he promised. He does not have to repeal the Act. Actually, the Act does not seem to have destroyed hunting but instead seems to have allowed it to continue, albeit in a controlled way, without harassment from the saboteurs.
381 At least he hasn’t followed the Guardian’s lead and picked off whole posts or articles from here.
382,384 Let’s just hope the Tories wouldn’t waste hundreds of hours in the Commons debating this, as Labour did.
Just imagine the massive levels of civil unrest were foxhunting to be legalised again. Does Dave really want all that aggro?
Easterross, OT and personal. We arrive in Cromarty on 5/8
I have you mobile no. will call you/ plse leave message for me either on mobile or where we are staying
Looking forward to a pint. So
much to chat about”
388 The Hunting Ban is hardly the Poll Tax redux.
389 MTQ - Will you be the one with the furled copy of the FT under your left armpit?
391 Oops, MTQ = MTF
A “Proper exclusive”
“The Millipede’s going head-to-head with Harman!”
That’s how I heard the news yesterday afternoon, when a colleague shouted it across the room. A Labour leadership contest is shaping up between David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, and Harriet Harman, the Leader of the Commons.
Of course, Harman has now denied this. For his part, Miliband is talking of the need for a “radical new phase”. He also mentions the importance of being humble about shortcomings. This has been interpreted as an implicit challenge to the PM.
But never mind what politicians say. The cat is now well outside the bag — Labour has begun the process that will lead to a new leader. Gordon Brown’s premiership has entered the final, doddery furlong. So let’s have some with this…
How many days do we think Brown has left? On a more serious note, how will a change of leader affect the economy? How will it impact on you as an investor?
On the first question, I plump for 62 days. This isn’t because I have some Deep Throat-style Whitehall insider. My (crude) reasoning is this — the leadership speculation will rumble on for the rest of the summer. MPs will strike secret deals, put out feelers, make (and break) promises… all the way to the Labour Party conference, which starts on 20 September.
At the conference, movers and shakers will gather in huddles, move and shake a bit, then finalise a plan to oust Brown. The pressure to quit will be unrelenting. I can’t see the man staying beyond September.
On foxhunting, Dave will probably enrol the likes of Kate Hoey and Baroness Mallalieu to get it through. There were 70 Labour Peers opposed the hunting ban from memory. However given the economic mess the country will be in I reckon only a few urban loonies will say much about the removal of the ban. Most people will be more concerned about heating their homes and paying their mortgages.
I would love to see Kate Hoey as Minister of State for Culture, Media and Sport with responsibility for the Olympics. Then we would have a Minister who actually understands something about sport. I keep hoping Dave can persuade her to defect. She sounds more like a Cameroon than a Pa Brooner.
393 HPS - any views on the timing of the next GE, assuming your expectations as regards the Labour Leadership prove to be essentially correct?
366 SeanT, I used to like your ramblings, but that particular insert of yours: “Now, having “no seats in inner Manchester”, etc, merely means you aren’t so popular with the underclass, gays, and ethnic minorities. Meanwhile the white working classes have fled to Essex, Cheshire, etc, where the Tories do very well indeed.”
.. is really very offensive, and I shall gloss over your mutterings in future.
394 Kate Hoey - were that in prospect, I think it would have already happened, although I recall she’s having some problems with her local constituency Labour party over her job working for Boris.
The fact that the best Miliband could offer in support of Brown yesterday is that he “can” win the next GE, is pretty damning for Labour.
Miliband has now made it clear that he is available, if called upon, to lead the party into the next GE. This is a significant development. Everyone now knows this and everyone now also knows that Brown does not have either the full support or the confidence of his most senior colleagues.
This situation is dire for Labour and is directly analogous to the election that never was. In both cases the initial intention was not to proceed there and then with the idea but to gain a political advantage. However both stories developed legs and speculation ran riot; to the point now that to turn back would be worse than to see the job through.
If no leadership challenge ensues then Brown limps on, his authority further weakened and Miliband will have simply made things worse for no ultimate advantage.
Like Maggie Thatcher fan, if any of you fine fellows are venturing into the Northern Highlands, I would be delighted to meet up for a small libation.
There’s a new thread up.
393. Any valid nomination has to be presented a fortnight before conference, and in practice a lot earlier…
396. Why is it offensive Aaron?
396. lol. Someone who is “very offended ” by the mere mention of “white flight” is probably best off glossing over my mutterings, anyway.
I can be a LOT more offensive than that, trust me.
403. He’s right you know…
Having just looked up Geraldine Smith MP, she who has been calling for Miliband’s sacking, it is pleasing to note that she is a person of substance, character, and strong moral convictions…
# Voted a mixture of for and against introducing a smoking ban.
# Voted a mixture of for and against introducing ID cards.
# Voted a mixture of for and against introducing foundation hospitals.
# Voted moderately against introducing student top-up fees.
# Voted very strongly for Labour’s anti-terrorism laws.
# Voted very strongly for the Iraq war. votes, speeches
# Voted very strongly against an investigation into the Iraq war.
# Has never voted on replacing Trident.
# Voted very strongly for the hunting ban.
# Voted moderately against equal gay rights.
388
I can’t imagine repealing the fox hunting ban causing much, if any, civil unrest.
For what it’s worth I live in the country. There’s dead animals everywhere. A few foxes more or less will make no difference.
The Daily telgraph is a shadow of its former self. As a reader of 35 years’ standing, i omly buy it because it’s cheap when prepaid.
But the content is rubbish - the Business Section is good tho.
I reckon much of the readership is dying.
405. She’s also a staunch Catholic, and very popular in Morecambe and Lunesdale…
402 - It’s in the context of “underclass, gays and ethinic minorities”, assuming a so-called underclass, gay people and ethnic minorities wouldn’t vote Conservative. I have indeed voted Conservative in the elections in London this year, and as a gay man, find it offensive when the likes of SeanT are still burying their heads in the 19th century. The world has changed and isn’t turning back.
Indeed, SeanT has piped up again at 403 going on about White Flight. He’s assuming something and got it totally wrong. Cameron is trying to change the Conservatives, yet the ‘traditional’ supporters are still thinking Britain is a Colonial Power. I’m sure SeanT can be far more offensive, but I wasn’t talking about White flight, I was talking about putting underclass, gay and ethnic minorities in the same grouping. Being offensive doesn’t win arguements, it merely shows you up for running out of decent ammunition.
Just looking in as I pack up before my break. The Sunday Times has had another go at getting comments from me - think Bob M-A, Geraldine Smith and I must be the only non-Ministers in the country. The same reporter quizzed me with increasing desperation. Was I still sure I didn’t want to replace Brown? Wouldn’t I like a leadership election? Who would I prefer to Brown? But weren’t my replies out of keeping with what most of the press were saying?
To a veteran of seanT-needling, a Sunday Times reporter is but a gadfly, so I fended him off amiably while I walked the dog, till he eventually gave up. 20 minutes later, a woman rang up, announcing herself as the assistant editor. She was terribly sorry, the fellow who rang me before was a trainee and not from the political staff, so probably hadn’t appreciated the nuances. Could she just check, wouldn’t I like a leadership election? Wasn’t I unhappy with Brown? And the whole catachism reeled off again.
I was just about to say “What part of ‘no’ don’t you understand?” when she twigged my growing exasperation and retreated. Pity I won’t be around to see if they report any fragment of the 20 minutes of interviews.
The dog enjoyed the longer-than-usual walk, though.
Back on August 12 to see if you’re all still convinced a leadership election is happening.
Its not a problem to ease Gordo out ,when the resuffle comes cabinet members refuse to move to new posts. This happened in the latter stages of Tony Blairs time as PM. It caused havoc
I cannot see Gordon going, and Miliband has no courage… so end of story…
410. Aaron, I’m sorry, I didn’t realise you were a gaylord. I meant to offense to people in your position, nor indeed to members of the underclass, or people who are unfortunately known as “pikeys”.
Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.
205.”195 - for pure, stylish evil, the timing of this YouGov poll by the Telegraph takes some beating.”
Maybe that media momentum has taken off and will force the Labour party into acting one way or the other?
235.”Antifrank Believe JM - he had plans for the calm after the turmoil. There are few PMs, if any, who really can rise above the abuse and stress. Even Lucky Jim and Thatcher showed the strain before the end.”
I agree Witan, Major knew they were going to lose, he just had to steer them through the defeat and his job was done. After 7 years and all the cr*p he had to deal with he was ready for retiring from politics, I think he even refused a seat in the Lords?
He saw his party win a 4th consecutive GE no one expected, and he had the guts to face down a rebellion and win unlike Mrs T, not a bad achievement when all is said and done.
“BMA has held a highly marginal seat against the odds two times, after admittedly Blair delivered the seat to him in his landslide 1997 year.
Other highly marginal seats have been lost — and in fact they have normally been high-profile Blairites who lost them (Jane Griffiths, Helen Clark…)”
No. I did not lose Reading East in 2005 (I have never lost an election) as I was not the candidate. I had stood down and the Labour candidate was a man called Tony Page.
Gwynfa 62: “Other highly marginal seats have been lost — and in fact they have normally been high-profile Blairites who lost them (Jane Griffiths, Helen Clark…)”
Get it right man. Jane Griffiths did not lose the Reading East seat. She was not the candidate in 2005. Tony Page lost Reading East. He was the man they replaced her with. He was the man who lost the seat, as we said he would.