Is today going to be VEEP-day?
August 18th, 2008
At least it will end the betting misery
If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June - betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s the choice of just one man and we can only speculate on what his criteria will be.
Normally I like to think that I’m a completely rational gambler, examining the evidence and only placing bets where the return is greater than my assessment of the likelihood of something happening. Yet on the Obama running mate market I’ve placed one silly bet after another and I fear that I’m going to end up a loser.
I’ve had a view for a long time that Obama has to choose a woman yet the latest from the US commentators is that it is likely to be a white male. How do they know?
Betting has not been helped by the rock-solid security from Camp Obama and there’ve been no leaks - only a vast amount of speculation over every little piece of information to emerge as we’ve seen over the past week with details of the Denver convention programme.
The form of the announcement, when it comes and hopefully that will be within the next 36 hours, only adds to the mystery. Hundreds of thousands or maybe even millions who have registered their mobile number with the campaign web-site are going to get the news first by text message.
So looking over my books I make a reasonable net profit if its Sebelius, Clinton, Veneman or Wes Clark. Anybody else and I’m a loser and for more than I would like to admit.
Moderation note I am away for the next 24 hours and will not be monitoring the site or the moderation box as often as I normally do. Automated moderation is on which means that only those who have posted here before with the same name and email address will be able to publish instantly.
There are likely to be many days like this over the next two and a half weeks so please be patent.
Mike Smithson
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It won’t be Wes Clark, sorry Mike. Obama told him to stay away from the Convention.
And it won’t be Clinton, unless he wants to be sure he’ll lose - imagine the nastiness of the Republicans attack adverts on the Clinton White House (him and her) if she’s on the ticket
More Obama Drama!
3, I’d prefer Bananarama drama, to be honest:p
Mike, it doesn’t have to be a woman! There are two reasons for this: 1) the Hillary supporters have to come around to Obama in the end because he is the only alternative to McCain, whom they will come to hate by the end of Obama’s stretch run advertising blitz if they don’t hate him already and 2) American voters aren’t as attentive to the political process as you may think they are; Hillary will be ancient news by election day and nobody will be talking about her. If you accept these propositions, then why would Obama have to choose a woman?
Also, here’s an interesting article from the Washington Post about the Saddleback Forum, which constituted the first meeting of McCain and Obama in this campaign.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/small_hopes_and_large_upsets.html
The event should give some of Obama’s more dedicated supporters pause about the suitability of their candidate for a U.S. presidential election. I still maintain that Obama will win because of the overwhelming advantages he will enjoy, but McCain will not go down without a fight and Obama will not run away with this race. I believe he will win by a solid margin, but not a landslide.
If Barack Obama were to get involved in a confrontation with Matthew Paris, it could be headlined “Obama llama farmer drama”.
from previous thread!
286
Peter Hitchens was educated at The Leys School, the Oxford College of Further Education, and the University of York. He married Eve Ross in 1983; they have three children. Although raised as an Anglican, Hitchens learned soon after his marriage that his mother, who had committed suicide when he was in his twenties, was of partly Jewish ancestry[1]. Hitchens is a confirmed and communicant member of the Church of England.
7, he still isn’t as odd as the Archbishop of Canterbury.
2. Presumably an attack advert along these lines.
“Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
Because her father is Janet Reno.”
Meanwhile, it is good to hear that God continues to bless America, at least according to Nancy Pelosi:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_I_will_win.html
And you can guess who personifies that blessing, in her opinion!
From last thread:
First, as I do almost everyday since 2-3 weeks, I posted this:
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
INTRADE (last trade): 60.9 / 36.1 %
BETFAIR (last trade): 65.79 / 32.26 %
538.com (projection): 56.9 / 43.1 %
Then, none other that Peter the Punter shockingly asks:
206 Philippe - Can you explain your figures? You are losing me.
Which market does the Betfair 65.79 come from?
What in the love of God don’t ye understand, ye Punter?
“Win percentage” is the chances that Obama or McCain have to win the Us.Presidential Elections, mista! — according the 2 predictions markets and 538.com
So, of course — of course!!! — the number writtent next to BETFAIR (last trade) come from the betfair market titled thus : “2008 Presidential Election - Next President” — available here:
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20739353&ex=1&origin=MRL
WTF?
65.79% is of course the last price matched on that very market!!!
In %, 1.52 translates as 65.789474…
9- Sean, I met and spoke with Janet Reno once a few years ago, and it was quite an experience; I am 6′4″, and yet she was looking down at me from whatever her height happens to be! This is an almost unprecedented experience for me when standing next to and talking to a woman, particularly a woman of her age.
Mike,
The Veep business will not affect the outcome of the election, it never does. Betting on it, you are right about this, is a mug’s game.
Having said that, I am much more interested in McCain’s choice as this is likely to tell us a lot about the future direction of the GOP. If McCain choses a figure acceptable to the evangelicals then he will lose a lot of the women’s vote; if he doesn’t, and choses a moderate then the Republican party will fall apart at the seams.
Their coalition has become more fragile over time and is likely fracture, possibly disintegrate rapidly. In our time we need three party politics in the states and three ideologically different parties. Indeed that would be useful in the UK too.
Hope this posting hasn’t annoyed a single precious soul.
Malcolm
Betting on this market was easy if you didn’t beleive the hype around a so-called ‘dream ticket’ of Clinton/Obama - it was never ever going to happen and therefore laying Clinton as Veep was always going to guarantee you a return.
9. lol. Is that your gag, or one you found? Very good anyway! Manages to insult Chelsea, Bill, Hillary and Janet Reno, all at once, and simultaneously insinuate that Hillz is a “tuppence”.
Though of course we all know she’s really a juicer.
12 Reno is 6′1″, unless she was in 4″ heels there was probably a step or a hover pack involved somewhere. In either case, time to buy yourself some Cubans
16- I don’t believe for a moment that she’s just 6′1″. I wasn’t looking at her shoes, but her eyes were definitely above mine.
Off Topic.
If Michael Phelps was, as suggested, an independent country, not a state of the USA. Team GB would have as many Gold Medals as the US. One off going 2nd in the table. Quite a performance.
I note that the Chinese are now very close to America in terms of total medals won, as well as completely outranking them in terms of golds.
Will the US media finally put America second, if they are beaten on both counts?
I secondly note that modern female athletes have a fashion for disturbingly dimunutive shorts.
13- If the Republican Party fragments into two separate viable parties, the Democrats will be running this country for about as long as the PRI ran Mexico.
@313/prev.:
Is this all to do with your one-man PBC vendetta against anything John McCain says and does?
Which statements by McCain would you characterise as ‘rampaging around like a testosterone-filled tw*t’?
19- Disturbing?
(From Previous Thread)
314- “The BBC is the home broadcaster for these Northern Ireland athletes (and I’m sure they and their families all pay their licence fees)”
I’m sure they DONT pay their license fees. Payment of the License fee in N.Ireland is woeful.
And also, since they are representing Ireland, they clearly dont feel they are British so why should a British TV Channel report on them? The local Ulster news can report on them.
17 Internet says she is 6′1″, 6′1 1/2″ or 6′2″.
15 - I don’t think she ever passed her electricia’s certificate…
5 - Stars and Stripes -
The two main stories coming out of this are the suggestion that McCain was able to listen to all the questions beforehand, unlike Obama and, more worryingly, that his ‘cross in the sand’ story is actually untrue and plagiarised from one of his favourite writers Solzhenitsyn.
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what is said, it’s the blowback that counts, I expect this to be the case for all the debates.
11 - Does the fact that 65.79 on betfair and 36.1 on intrade totalling over 100 mean that an immediate profit can be made.
15. It’s attributed to John McCain at a Republican fundraiser in 1998.
26- Two main stories, or two main crackpot theories from the far-left blogosphere? For your own good, don’t spend too much time stewing in the cozy left-wing juice pot or you won’t have a clue what’s really going on in this race. Would you rather be happy or right? If you’d rather be right, start widening the range of your fact sources.
20. Which is precisely why it won’t fragment.
http://americaintheworld.typepad.com/
Does anyone else find this pathetic? Or is it just me?
Tim Montgomerie is no more the arbiter of Britain’s relationship with America than he is about what is and what is not Conservative. He also seems to forget that Obama and the Democrats are also American.
@22:
Female shotputters.
No need to say more.
21 Not McCain, just some people on here, McCain is the more diplomatic version.
I’ve been watching this very carefully and McCain has a veneer which most people see but, which when you look at him and his ideas, you find is covering something a lot darker. His belligerence and presumptuousness have been a defining moment in the campaign, with probable short term benefit from the base but giving long term ammunition to his opponent.
26/5
The DailyKos and other US left-wing-blogs full of internationalist-sharks are apparenlty panicking — realising that Mac has much more chances of winning this that our petulant Stars & Stripes seems to think:
– they are echoing the paranoid fantasy according to which John McCain would have stolen the moving cross-in-the-sand story from a Solzhenitsyn novel;
– they are virtually accusing Mac of cheating @ a TV show :
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/d-s-hube/2008/08/17/nbcs-andrea-mitchell-floats-idea-mccain-cheated
Isn’t signs that they are panicking?
31
Am4erican Muscle!
30- I dont understand why people who love America but who arent Americans dont go move to America.
@33:
Panicking? Maybe. They’re lefties, after all, and the Democrats do have a proud heritage of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
That said, I see no evidence or even sound reasoning to suggest that Mac is on the verge of some kind of breakthrough.
@30:
I find Montgomerie’s presumptiousness irritating, as a Tory. I can’t wait to see him do the same for an entire nation.
35 - Just because you admire and respect one country doesn’t mean that you have disdain for all the others or hold them in less regard.
Meanwhile PoliticsHome’s expert panel says ‘Russia’s reputation is in freefall’.
http://www.politicshome.com/#2341
Crumbs. I wonder who’ll break the news to Putin.
27 OK, Philippe, no need to shout! I understand perfectly now and it is as I thought. The Betfair price is well out of line with the other two and suggests we should be selling Obama or buying McCain on the Next President market.
Thanks for giving us these numbers from time to time. They do help with the betting calls.
Btw, I think it was the presentation that threw me, but there’s no harm in asking when you’re not sure you understand something.
40. Sorry. I eat way too spicy since a while….
29 - I read very widely on this, I don’t know why you are suggesting otherwise, only if you believe that nobody would *dare* to go against the line from certain commentators. The idea that McCain gave short simple answers and so was most effective is the main thrust that I can see but it doesn’t take a genius to analyse how that can be a drawback for McCain in future debates that aren’t as cosy.
I don’t think the former story is at all important anyway and is just annoying but the Solzhenitsyn story is quite likely to go viral and there appears to be substantial evidence to suggest it is true.
People see the same thing and disagree because they disagree politically, I wouldn’t dare to suggest that it was because someone was only looking at one side the way you claim of me. I look at both and then make a decision, that’s why I tend to Cameron here and not the left, such simplistic views of left and right as you suggest don’t apply to many people (and one would hope all but that’s asking too much).
Maybe you aren’t reading widely enough, maybe you just don’t appreciate how McCain comes across when divorced from national interest, or however you decide on your opinions.
38- I’m not saying that. But when you get someone creating a “Fighting Anti-American” page with articles about how great America is (Note I am not saying there is anything wrong with that), and support the UK doing whatever America does, I wonder why that person doesnt catch a plane to the USA and apply for a Green card.
33- But Philippe (no adjectives required), the left-wing blogosphere is always in spastic colon mode; it’s just the degree of spasticity that varies. If you can discern panic from that rather than the same old tripe they always produce, with some added frenzy given the closeness of the election, then good for you.
@37. So who is this Tim Montgomerie?
36. If Obama loses Ohio, his chances of winning goes down dramatically…
538.com gives Obama less than 25% of winning the Elections if he loses Ohio…
And now nobody can call Ohio.
It is virtually a tie.
44- You never been to littlegreenfootballs then?
40 - I was asking a serious question - never really had a go betting and wanted to know if what I saw was correct. What are the risks.
I suppose as the 2 are seperate you would have to tie up twice as much money rather taking advantage of moving prices on one to end up green before the event.
39. That really is pathetic.
41 Pas de probleme, Philippe.
43 - Clearly they are intent on attempting to change attitudes to America in Britain, one imagines that is easier from Britain than America.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: McCain will win by a country mile.
44 I have to admit that I don’t read much of the left-wing blogosphere. Sincerely.
I felt a kind of panic however emanating from this corner of the political universe coze those 2 wild rumors reached my brain pretty much faster and louder than usual…
Also, the conflict with Russia is escalating — and I think that it can help Mac wins some toss-up states — if it keeps on going.
+ Ohio tying up…
@52:
Some reasoning would be nice.
42- You are the one who said that “the two main stories coming out of this” were the supposed plagiarism story and the advance notice of questions story. In whose world are those the two main stories? In the view of the American public? That is the only reasonable basis, in political terms, for judging that those are the two main stories. If you really believe those are the two main stories from Saddleback in terms of effect on the presidential race, you are living in a deluded left-wing fantasy land. As I’ve said before, the greatest danger for the left is that might believe its own propaganda.
46 It seems to be a tie now in Colorado as well, so I can’t help thinking it’ll be another rerun of the last two very closely fought elections, albeit I think just going in the Democrat’s direction, this time.
33 - A little bit too obvious there this time Mista Magnan.
54, my reasoning is — “Americans”. Nobody would be happier than I if I were proved wrong.
.. ans whilst we pontificate on such matters another British soldier dies in Afghanistan……..
Yay, match is back on. Scotland now 96/5 (34.0/44 ov)
@58:
Well, that’s me convinced.
55 - I made a distinction with ’stories’ as in things arising from the debate itself. It’s just how I see them going, I’m sure next time there will be something on an apparent Obama untruth or shady tactic, my point is that the debates are only going to be as effective as the dust that they kick up, as a Republican I would have thought you appreciated that, given the history.
I regularly immerse myself in Krauthammer, Kristol, Brooks and so on. In fact, I could probably name more conservative commentators than the opposite. I find it useful to read them to see what I don’t believe, this is why I am much more against McCain than I am for Obama I suppose.
If Obama *does* win, I promise not to mention ID cards again until 2009.
62 - Should read “things arising from *beyond* the debate itself”
23. Exactlty - log on to the frikking RTE website for updates. Typical Republicans - against the crown but want totake the half-crown.
56 — About Colorado
An impressive analysis by RCP’s Jay Cost :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/08/swing_state_review_colorado_1.html
—
I also think it’s gonna be quite close. So I think it’s a good time to buy Mac — maybe next week is better though : buying Mac while Denver is spinning…
Re 37 Tim Montgomerie was IDS’s chief aide and went onto to create ConHome. He is from the authoritarian wing of the party and refuses to put a link to PB on his site.
If all Tories were like Tim Labour would be in power forever
Democratic veep prices are back up at ladbrokes.
We are cheering on Biden, Sebelius and Kaine.
We are booing Clark, Veneman, Reed and Clinton. Sorry Mike.
56- Sean, you may want to consider that the polls, as always, are a snapshot of the moment, and many, many moments have yet to play out in this race. In fact, most of the race in practical terms has yet to happen. None of us knows what surprises are in store, but Obama has some great advantages, both in historical terms and in more tangible terms, that have yet to play out. I agree with you on the final outcome, but I don’t think it will be as razor-close as you currently believe. Look at it this way: most of what remains to occur in this race should heavily benefit Obama. Things like Russia/Georgia are certainly a wild card, but this event will likely have largely blown over by election day. Something else could pop up, but for McCain’s purposes, it would have been much more useful had the invasion of Georgia occured a month or two later.
So what is the best website (apart from this one!) to get the latest non-biased US election news?
I’m surprised there has been so little comment on the resignation of Pervez Musharraf, which I suspect will prove to be one of the key events of our time (certainly of far greater significance than the Georgian contretemps which has everyone so excited).
67 He often links to articles here, though.
@67:
I don’t think that Tim’s a bad chap, but his particular vision of a Christian authoritarian Conservative Party is abhorrent to me and to many (most?) Tories.
As such, I find the way that he uses ConHome to speak ‘on behalf of’ Tories to be irritating.
Is there some reason why he refuses to link here? Personal animosity? Principled opposition to gambling? Envious of your total page impressions?
66 - The water thing is pretty important to Coloradoans (or whatever they are called!)
68 - The later the announcement the greater chance it will be Clinton in my opinion, more chance to show this team off without commentators pontificating and, also, a less well known candidate would surely benefit from being announced earlier.
70 - Actually, look at Drudge’s headlines, he isn’t the ogre of yore and appears pretty fair handed with his choice of stories and articles.
67. Thanks Mike.
65 - Er, Northern Irish people pay their taxes and the licence fee too and have every right to expect their state broadcaster to cover their athletes. And if you think every sportsperson that represents an all-Ireland team is a republican or even a nationalist then you are seriously misinformed.
Next Labour Leader In Scotland
William Hill
I Gray 8/11
A Kerr 5/2
C Jamieson 3/1
Ladbrokes
I Gray 1.66
C Jamieson 3.75
A Kerr 4.00
@77:
Labour leaning towards the “no change at any cost” candidate then.
Excellent.
69: I suspect you’re right. I think the Democrats are just so fired up this year that the differential turnout will push them over the top.
That said, I don’t think either McCain or Obama is exactly a dream candidate. In different circumstances I think we’d be seeing J Bush vs. M Warner.
76. Sorry - so if I lived in France I should expect French Tv to cover team GB ???
35 a lot easier said than done. Visa requirements are strict. Besides, you can love a country yet still much prefer your own.
66- It is heartening to see published political analysis substantiated by so much data! Not because it makes the analysis better, but because we have a basis to make our own informed judgments.
The historical stuff is good, including comparing Colorado to Pennsylvania and Ohio. But if you look at the bigger picture in Colorado, you’ll see that the state has been shifting very rapidly over the past few years, more rapidly than almost any other state. This means that data going back to 1952 may not be very useful in judging what will happen in the state this year. I expect Obama to win nationally by a margin of about 54%-46% in the two-party popular vote, and his margin in Colorado will likely be pretty close to that national margin.
80 - Perhaps you are unaware that Northern Ireland is part of the UK?!
67 - do you think it’s anything to do with the betting aspect of this site? I guess it’s fairly old school, but betting does go against some Christians’ beliefs.
70- I would suggest realclearpolitics.com. But I don’t want to lead you to believe you’ll find non-biased coverage there; that is pretty hard to come by anywhere! But at least you’ll find a range of analyses, mixed in with some of the best of the less opinion-centered pieces.
On Thread….
The VP markets have been a minefield for punters. The overrounds have been colossal. Often this is offset by the ease with which one can delete no-hopers, but not in this case. To make matters worse, the pundits have been all over the place and there have been no worthwhile leaks.
Mike isn’t the only one to have struggled with these markets. I’ll be happy to break even. If it’s Clinton, I’ll be giving Morus a large number of used notes and my handgun to use on her when she surfaces at Denver.
Romney for the GOP VP is hardly more thrilling for me.
Bad market. I don’t know how Shads has managed to have ANY losers on his books at all.
Does Tim Montgomerie refuse to post on Sundays?
83 - Perhaps you are unaware that there are Northern Irish competitors in Team GB? Those who chose an alternative option can hardly complain if British coverage of their achievements is scant.
[from previous thread] Neil, as you Irish like to say, feck off.
If these “British” athletes who live in Britain and benefit from British benefits, health service, defence, etc, still feel so Irish and so anti-British that they would rather compete under the Irish flag than their natural British flag, then they can hardly expect the BRITISH Broadcasting Corporation, funded by us loyal Brits, to lavish them with attention.
Or am I missing something?
Jeepers. The attitude of the Celtic fringe really takes some beating. And I speak as a Cornish Celt. The Cornish can be just as bad. Mewling puking whining whingeing ridiculous spoilt crappy bunch of girlies. The Scots, Irish, Cornish, Welsh, they are like a wife sitting on the sofa eating all the chocolates who is constantly “on the blob” and moaning about her husband who does all the bleeding work to pay for her Bendicks Bittermints.
Grow up.
Not that I have anything against the Irish as Irish. Good luck to ‘em. But don’t expect me to pay for a broadcaster to cover YOUR athletes. Bejasus.
From previous thread “The choice of team does not affect one’s nationality or identity (which deserves to be respected by all). One can be Irish and British.”
Errr no, the choice of team DOES affect ones nationality or identity. By choosing Ireland, they are saying they are either Irish or feel more Irish than British.
76- “Northern Irish people pay their taxes and the licence fee too”
Well some of them do. Like I said, something like 50% of people who should pay the license fee dont.
83- “Perhaps you are unaware that Northern Ireland is part of the UK?!”
Yeah, which is why we cover the Norther Ireland athletes who represent Britain.
82- Is there any realistic chance of Obama winning Virginia?
79- Turnout will be one huge factor favoring Democrats this year, and the other huge factor will be the fairly predictable swing of uninformed and/or waffling centrists back to the Democrats. Most presidential elections are decided by these folks in the middle who just can’t seem to figure out what exactly they believe, but they know they have a bad taste in their mouths about how things are going in the country and they will in the end be persuaded by the “change” argument.
87 -
88. Is this to do with allegiances? Or is it to do with there being some sports that have continued to operate on an all-Ireland basis even after the secession of the Free State from the UK?
86 - Why shouldn’t he have losers on his books? If a bookmaker is convinced a candidate won’t win, there is no reason why he should adjust the odds to stop gullible punters handing him cash. I think Ladbrokes were probably right to offer superficially tempting odds on Clark, Clinton and others.
And he never said they would be losers for him anyway. He just said he would be booing them so that might mean they are less big winners than other candidates for him.
91 - I would say it’s a probability with Kaine or Warner on the ticket and a toss-up otherwise.
RCP is to the right in its balance of articles, I can’t think of anything similar on the left though. I like the bloggers at The Atlantic and am probably closest to Andrew Sullivan in much of my politics (as shown by the times I quote him!)
One absolute ‘must’ is factcheck.org, which cuts through all the rubbish that the campaigns spew out and gets much closer to the truth. In fact, I would say it’s indispensible.
91- Definitely, Obama has a chance in Virginia. That state is also shifting rapidly toward the Democrats, along with New Hampshire and Colorado as mentioned above. The Republicans may enjoy one or two more presidential elections (where they do better in Virginia than their overall national result, but the GOP advantage there is rapidly dwindling. If Obama wins nationally by the margin I expect, I think Virginia will turn out to be one of the closest races in the nation and could really go either way. McCain would probably win it by 1%-2%, but that is a shaky prediction. But if Obama picks Kaine or Warner, I expect the Democrats to win there.
90 - “By choosing Ireland, they are saying they are either Irish or feel more Irish than British.”
In reality, they could equally well be saying that they have a greater prospect of selection and/or funding.
89 - “Or am I missing something?”
Yes. Try the Good Friday Agreement for starters. A little bit of respect for people’s identity goes a long way. Being British and Irish are not mutually exclusive. Representing an Irish team can be completely consistent with loyalty to the UK and does not make one anti-British. It is insulting to suggest otherwise. Anyway, that’s probably more than enough about a throw away comment on a BBC blog.
I see the winning female Russian pole vaulter had REALLY tight shorts. Oooh*.
*It’s ten pm here.
Good anthem too, the Russians. It’s the old Soviet one, innit? Excellent tune. Good idea to keep it. But why did they choose that tedious new flag? It’s like the flag of a small boring western European country, Holland or Luxembourg or something. Very disappointing.
Which provokes the question, which country has the best flag and anthem, and the best of combination of both? Without getting too jingoistic, I think the Union Jack is the best flag. Instantly recognisable, unique, attractive, striking, clever, intelligently symbolic, and surprisingly complex. Go the Union Jack!
Trouble is our anthem is mediocre. Not terrible, but mediocre. The French have a great anthem - maybe the best? - but a pretty boring flag. I think Nazi Germany used to have the best combination - brilliant Swastika flag, great stirring anthem (Deutschland uber alles - cracking stuff). But I understand the flag has now been discontinued, due to branding problems.
Who would pb-ers nominate, for the best flag, anthem, and flag-anthem combination?
100. At rugby yes.
In athletics = no.
These guys have made a choice - stop bleating that the BBC isn’t covering them.
100. This link suggests a wide variety of different organisational structures - UK/All-Ireland/6 counties/9-county Ulster across different sports.
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/csc/reports/sugdenharvie/sugdenharvie95-3.htm
101- The Germans haven’t ditched the anthem, though. It’s still “Deutschland uber Alles,” “uber Alles in der Welt”…
It sounds pretty pompous and nationalistic, but it’s nothing next to the French national anthem, which calls for impure foreign blood to soak their fields.
101. USA is up there on the flag front - and anthem is not bad. Has added benefits of being like kryptonite for lefties so gets bonus points. Canada has a very recognisable flag but who knows the anthem ?
The Ozzies and Kiwi’s must hate their flags - talk about colonial Jackboot
101 EU Flag - Ode to Joy.
People we have just moved to SeanT - DefCon 1.
Protect and Survive.
[The Irish Question] - As far as I can tell there have been no medals won by Irish [as opposed to those competing as "British"] competitors yet in the Olympics. This compares to 27 medals won by the “British”.
I’m confused as to what coverage has apparently been missed out on.
101 - Actually I was thinking about the anthem and decided that we come out well. One thing it has is which others don’t elegance (it’s in 3/4 which helps. It doesn’t need to beat its chest and break out the drums and trumpets, as if to say ‘we are so good we don’t even have to try, we could have Elgar but that would be so *vulgar*’.
69. I’d watch Ukraine closely though. The Ukrainians aren’t happy about having the Russian fleet there anymore, and there are stories of the Russians handing out passports in the Crimea area. It’s possible the situation will get a lot more complicated soon.
I want to start betting, does anyone reccomend a site? Betfair seems to be good. Should I register? Also, does anyone know which stock market simulator programs are good for practising investing?
@101:
Boris Yeltsin got rid of the old Stalin-approved anthem, Putin reinstated it.
If the BBC covered Ireland more though, they would be accused of acting like they think Ireland is still part of the UK.
Best Anthem is def. Russia.
Best flag is Papua New Guinea!
104- The German anthem doesnt have the words Deutschland uber Alles in it though. It was removed in the 50s or something…
Russia’s anthem is great. I also approve of Germany’s and the EU’s.
Best flag: Albania.
112. yes, though Swiss TV apparently hasn’t cottoned on to that yet…
Final score for Scotland 156/9 (44.0/44 ov)
England target will be a bit different cos of D/L
If England can’t score above 3.5 an over then boy are we in trouble!
100. Give it up Neil, it’s a losing argument. If you live in Britain and benefit from British taxes and benefits and you want to be covered and lauded by the British Broadcasting Corporation - then join team Great Britain in the Olympics.
If you choose to compete for a foreign country, then the British Broadcasting Corporation, paid for by Brits, might not be quite so enthusiastic. Derrr.
105. USA - very good flag, but maybe slightly “busy” as they say in design circles? The anthem is strong, but a bit shrill. But definitely a powerful combination.
Actually, Jonathan, I’d agree on the EU anthem - Ode to Joy is of course one of the greatest anthems of all. And the flag is quite cool, but a bit neutral (though I have heard, controversially, it is based on the halo of stars that traditionally adorns the Virgin Mary in Catholic iconography. Thomas Cranmer would not be amused).
So, yes, another good combination.
The EU flag is nowhere near as good as the British or Nazi flags though.
101 Seriously.
South Africa is pretty good on both counts. Moving.
France is probably the best combo. Great tune (tune orginally comes from a drinking song I understand from A Strasbourg tour guide) and the flag is so simple and much copied. Father Jack can’t get enough of it.
If we had Spandau Ballet’s Gold we would be top. Our flag is let down.
Agree Russian anthem is stirring stuff. Hunt for Red October.
112- Really? I hadn’t heard that. What did they change it to? Perhaps befitting the traumatized post-war German self-image, it was just tweaked to something like “Deutschland unter Alles, unter alles in der Welt.”
Time to sell US dollars and to buy oil…, methinks.
101 Best National Anthem by a mile is the Welsh, SeanT. Do you think we could buy it off them to replace our sad old dirge?
Of course, chez PtP, we wake to the strains of Ode To Joy. I know it by heart. Would you like me to sing it for you?
Agree about the flag though. Union Jack is second to none. We really should repatriate it from the BNP.
@112:
Not true. The fourth verse was removed, and that *also* had Uber Alles in it, but it’s still there with pride of place in verse 1.
101 - For combination, I’d put in a bid for the USA. I agree that the union flag is top rank, but God Save The Queen is dull dull dull. (No wonder they sing Rule Britannia at the Last Night of the Proms.)
The USA has a very nifty flag, and musically the Star Spangled Banner is really quite interesting (though a complete bugger to sing).
Best flags - Switzerland gets marks for innovation by using a different shape. China’s has a bold but simple design, as does Japan. For me, South Korea just wins out on stylistic flair. My nephew, who is a flag connoisseur, is keenest on Nepal.
105- “The Ozzies and Kiwi’s must hate their flags - talk about colonial Jackboot”
Whats the deal with that anyway? Canada changed their flag years ago. Given how popular rebublicanisn is in Australia, why havent they changed their flag?!
101 seanT - I imagine you’re especially fond of the sixth and rarely-sung verse of our national anthem:
“Lord grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring.
May he sedition hush,
And like a torrent rush,
Rebellious Scots to crush.
God save the Queen!”
113- You can’t beat Libya’s flag, though: simplicity itself!
101-It’s the old pre-revolutionary Russian flag. The coat-of-arm is suitably grandiose and imperial.
http://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/ru).html
109-Will be in Crimea next week, will report if I see anything!
101 Best national anthem - the French (through gritted teeth)
Always liked Brazil’s flag. Colourful - and with a picture of the southern hemisphere’s night sky to let you get your bearings as to where you are on earth. Pretty much tells you what you need to know.
Best flag though for telling you what you get is undoutedly Albania. Blood red, with black double-headed stylised eagle. If you were looking for a flag that says two-bit backward country with bad attitude - and a wretched record on almost any metric you choose to use - I would defy a thousand advertising executives to come up with anything better.
http://unimaps.com/flags-africa/mozambique-flag.gif
Shocking lack of love for the Mozambique flag; probably one of the maddest going.
116 - Personally I think the EU anthem is the greatest irony known to man. A hymn of praise to joy, for an institution that in the main provokes unremitting misery.
118 & 121- I’m no expert on it.
From Wikipedia:
“Das Deutschlandlied (”The Song of Germany”, also known as Das Lied der Deutschen, “The Song of the Germans”) has been used wholly or partially as the national anthem of Germany since 1922. Outside Germany it is sometimes known by the opening words and refrain of the first stanza, Deutschland, Deutschland über alles (Germany, Germany above everything), but this was never its title.”
“Only the third verse currently is the Federal Republic of Germany’s National Anthem. The other two stanzas are not part of the National Anthem.”
That starts: Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit, Für das deutsche Vaterland!
Which means: Unity and justice and freedom For the German fatherland!
And it doesnt have “Deutschland über alles” in it.
No nominations for Italy’s national anthem yet? I’d place it very near the top of the pile.
I’m a liberal but even I prefer the US anthem to ours, which (as the saying goes) consists of repeated pleas for an entity that doesn’t exist to save an institution that shouldn’t.
109 Betfair is indispensible, Thomas. If you get a friend to recommend you, he/she gets a small payment.
Can’t help with financial markets. Don’t touch ‘em.
Salmond on Test Match Special talking up the Scotland Test team!
128- If the AK47 changes to an M-16, we know the political allegance of the country has changed!
120 I agree about the Welsh national anthem, although “Guide Me Oh, thou Great Redeemer” is even more stirring.
129 Yeah, but it’s a great tune, Jim!
126. It would be interesting to know the mood if you can post! It would be my guess for the flashpoint of the next European war, the best bet by a long way.
Flags - I’d go for Japan, simple and symbolic. Worst flag - Libya, I mean couldn’t they make just a litle bit of effort?
The best that can be said for our anthem is that the Queen gives it credibility. I just can’t see the crowds getting worked up to save Charles.
I like the British Antarctic Territory flag as it is always nice to see a penguin fighting a lion.
134 - They don’t have a “test” team do they as they don’t have test match status?
Why does England have no National Anthem?
And can we make it “Jerusalem”?
124- The words “Rebellious Scots to crush.” has NEVER been part of the British anthem.
125 - Hah! I hadn’t seen your post, even on flags we appear to be completely the opposite.
I love the old state flag of the Shah or Iran too. You really can’t beat a flag with a lion wielding a sword:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:State_Flag_of_Iran_(1964).svg
Someone who designs flags is a “vexillographer”.
Just one of those odd words I know. Perhaps because it is quite an appealling later-life career….
137 - As a huge fan of Beethoven, I have no problem with the tune. I have no actual problem with Schillers poem. I just think appropriating it to a ragbag organisation is a travesty.
As we’re talking about best flags to march under whilst forging a new empire, I’d suggest Japan. Bold ,simple, agressive - it’s not just the sun, it’s a sun of blood!
133. Cheers.
131- Goes on too long
141 I know but he was busy predicting that ‘in a few years’ they will have one.
The Seychelles flag makes my head spin.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg.png
146- Strange, that’s what my career aptitude test once told me I should be…
@143:
The words “Rebellious Scots to crush.” has NEVER been part of the British anthem.
It’s an aspiration, not a commitment.
Whoops, should be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg
142. Didn’t you see that the C of E issued some kind of ban on ‘Jeruslaem’! The movement to make it an English anthem had been growing and they decided it was too nationalistic and aggresive for their churches and not Christian. You couldn’t really parody the C of E these days.
142 Hmmm….isn’t Jerusalem a bit ‘leftish’, Martin.
On reflection, could we sell Jerusalem to the Israelis? I’ve never heard the Israeli National Anthem but I doubt it’s as musical.
142 - They use Jerusalem for the “entrance music” for test cricket but not really as an anthem. Land of Hope and Glory is used at the Commonwealth Games.
127-I must admit when I went there I didn’t know what to expect.
At least two metrics were good:
-weather
-food (actually very Italianesque)
If al-Qaida ever does manage to conquer a country, rather than come up with something new I imagine Saudi Arabia’s decapitation-threatening design might suffice…
Got to love Bhutan, too. A funky dragon clutching four snooker balls. And what is that background colour - taupe? Beige?
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/flags/bt-flag.html
147 Teasing, James, as you well knew…but on a (slightly) serious note, has it ever occurred to you that it’s odd Schiller conjured the image ‘…wie ein Held zum Siegen’ in an ode to joy?
Sometimes they worry me, those Germans.
155 They’d probably feel more comfortable singing songs in praise of Cthulhu.
117. No, I think the French flag is very weak - it was a fairly striking design when it first came out, but now its been copied so many times its been devalued. There are a zillion tricolours.
The Japanese Imperial flag with that sunburst effect was pretty awesome. Perhaps some unfortunate connotations today, however. Looks a bit like a nuke hitting a large industrial city south of Tokyo.
Yes PeterthePunter - I think we might have found an unlikely winner in… Wales. A very striking flag - green and white and a stonking red dragon. Cool! And an absolutely brilliant anthem. Whenever I hear it before rugby matches, even though I am desperate for the English to whip the Taffs, I get a prickling at the back of the neck.
Wales, a worthy winner for best combination?
@156:
Is it?
I always thought it would serve to demonstrate how charmingly self-deprecating we Englishers are.
As well as being magnificently drunken-chantworthy.
try this one for st pierre & Miquelon. ok so not a country but a territorial collectivity but the Pugwash vibe is great.
http://www.flags.net/STPM.htm
158 Why weather and food - when you can get the same elsewhere along the Med without any of the Other Stuff that goes with Albania. Only metric on which they truly stand out is Bizarre Love of British Fifties’ Comedy Clowns. We had an office in Albania for a while - and I achieved amazing kudos for getting Norman Wisdom to sign a picture to them with a personal message. It was hung in the office and had shrine-like status. Got to love that!
163 SeanT - We agree. And not for the first time, me old china.
Wales wins.
Flag alone, I quite like Albania.
Anthem alone, not alot beats the French.
Combination - my native Wales by a country kilometres and a half.
164 - Making Jerusalem the National Anthem of the UK or of it’s principal constituent part would be one of the few things that would encourage me to up sticks and decamp from this green and pleasant land.
163 Yes, I agree. And the red dragon was used as a standard by Edward III at Crecy, so it has excellent historical resonance.
165 - It gladdens the heart to know that the EU stretches almost to the shores of North America.
123 “Whats the deal with that anyway? Canada changed their flag years ago. Given how popular rebublicanism is in Australia, why havent they changed their flag?! ”
Is Hawaii under the colonial jackboot too ?
http://www.hawaiipictures.com/pictures/oahu/hawaiiana4-1.jpg
164 Personally, I love it, MArtin, but it is a bit Commie.
Anyway, SeanT and I have now declared the winner. [See 167]
@169:
O RLY? Why?
166-I agree, but just to show that not everything was ghastly there. Expectations were so low that anything positive got accentuated.
164- If you want to win over the Left on a new anthem, perhaps you could come up with some song about how rotten America is. Or maybe a new flag with a British poodle sitting on Bush’s lap with a big red “X” over it.
166 - BIzarre? The little man standing up to his boss was Wisdom’s stock in trade character, being fans of his was quite a political statement as far as such things went under Hoxha,
Australian mayor calls for ‘ugly’ women to populate town
“”I believe we should look after women. I’m told men outnumber women here by five to one. If that’s the case, then perhaps it’s an opportunity for some lonely women.” Ex golf star Greg Norman and tennis player Pat Rafter were both born in the town.”
147. It’s also ironic that the EU should have chosen for its theme tune a piece by a composer who became bitterly disillusioned with a previous European imperialist.
172- Careful now, they still prefer to call them the Sandwich Islands there.
“I think we might have found an unlikely winner in… Wales. A very striking flag - green and white and a stonking red dragon. Cool!”
Agreed, but doesn’t Christian Voice want it banned?
160 — Chinese, Japanese and other Oriental dragons, as well as being longer and more serpentine than the Western varieties, are often depicted clutching spheres in their claws. Not sure why…
174 - Because the tune is pedestrian and rather boring, the words are awful, and the whole effect is utterly awful.
For those who appreciate good singing, there is a pub I frequent on the King’s Road in Chelsea (nowhere near my house, but worth the journey into sloaney territory) during the 6 Nations (unless I’m at a game live).
The quality of singing (it’s mostly ex-pat Welshmen and Welshwomen) is superb, and in spite of our allegiances, we still hammer out Danny Boy, Fields of Athan Rye, Jerusalem, the Marseilleise, and a few Italian arias. We even did Flowre of Scotland once. I will send out details closer to the time. Magic way to watch great rugby.
181 - I think there was a historical flag for Taiwan that was along the dragon lines - I’ll have a look.
Wales, No. France,South Africa or EU beats Wales. Couldn’t even hum the Welsh NA. Men of Harlech - now that’s a tune.
@182:
You have no soul, man. NO SOUL.
182 - Parry’s original tune is pedestrian, but elgar’s orchestration is magnificent. I disagree on the words.
“Agreed, but doesn’t Christian Voice want it banned?”
Why?
185 - The alternate disparaging words to Men of Harlech are rather amusing!
184 - Erm, not as scary as I remembered, in fact it looks like a cartoon cat.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Flag_of_Formosa_1895.svg
185 - The Welsh anthem is not the best Welsh tune, greanted. Calon Lan, Cwm Rhondda, Myfanwy, or Ar hyd Y Nos fight for that one…
177 But lauding someone for doing pratfalls ain’t normally the way to run a country! But then “Albania” and “ordinary” have rarely been bed-fellows…
Hey guys, that got me thinking - seems to be a while since one of those Albanian-style pyramid schemes did the rounds. What do you reckon on us starting one up? The economy going down the pan is the only pre-requisite for one of these things to take off….
re 270 previous
Sean T I got into a lot of bother on another (sports) site for mentioning the idiocy of three boys growing up in the same school, two competing for UK in these Olympics and the other for the ROI just because the ROI hands out passports to all and sundry (in a similar way to the Russians in Caucasus).
182 - The words to Jerusalem are “awful”? My jaw is dropping.
178
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/2577869/Australian-mayor-calls-for-ugly-women-to-populate-town.html
183 Danny Boy/Londonderry Aire is indeed a beautiful tune and one of the few to match the putatitive ‘anthem’ winner, Land of Our Fathers. But the words are wholly inappropriate to an anthem, so sadly it fails to qualify.
156
I don’t think Jerusalem a mystical Christian hymn would go down all that well as the Israeli national anthem. Although if anyone did manage it, it would be the greatest act of salesmanship in world history.
188 — pagan symbol, so I heard. I think it was mentioned recently with regard to that incendiary programme on Channel 4 last night, ‘Make me a Christian’.
196 Londonderry Air has unsuitable lyrics for an anthem? You should hear the version entitled ‘London Derriere’ - disgraceful!
191- Do you know how to pronounce the titles to any of those songs, let alone manage to sing them? It would seem the Latin alphabet was adapted to the Welsh languge in a manner having no purpose other than to render the language completely inaccessible to a non-native speaker.
As long as we dont get Islamists wanting the English flag banned because it is the Crusader flag…
190 — I don’t see anything wrong with putting Felix, Tom or Bagpuss on a flag. Just so long as it wasn’t Garfield.
@196:
Also, Danny Boy sounds a bit gay.
If Jerusalem became the English anthem, it would be only one of two athems where the title contained the name of a foreign city. The other is …?
199 “You should hear the version entitled ‘London Derriere’”
As sung by Jack W’s ARSE?
195.
Crikey if someone said that in this country HH would have them de-bollocked!
199 Well if you are going down that route, Morus, I once got myself in difficulties in a pub in Bute Town for singing the opening line to your anthem as…
‘My hen laid an egg and I ate for tea…’
I was braver then.
106
The words to Danny Boy, were in fact written by am Englishman, a solictor from Gloucester. I think it was as the result of a newspaper competition to fit the words to the music.
During the first world war, top British fighter ace Mickey Mannock always played it before going out on a sortie.
198 Heraldry is full of symbols of mythological beasts. They’d probably want to pull down all the gryphons in the City of London, too.
200 - I know all the words to all of them!
Welsh is the oldest ‘living’ (if artificially) language in Europe, so I wonder if it made more sense to Latin speakers than your ‘thoroughly thought through’!
Times of London: Putin ordered ethnic cleansing
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4553499.ece
203 It had me wondering, Martin, until I figured out it was a parent singing to his/her son. The words are in fact very moving, but not suitable for an anthem.
200. Irish is even worse
205 There was an immensely popular French entertainer, about 100 years ago, called La Petomaine, who reproduced popular tunes by his musical farting.
204 Marseille
@205:
London Derriere?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwuC8FRaS5o
194 - The words are an absolute pile of tosh.
207 or Absolutely Ghoulashed!
210. Surely Basque is older, being non Indo-European? And what about Greek?
209 — I wish they would! Then we could throw all the mad bastards in prison for vandalism.
215 - Marseille is not foreign to the French!
The country of Grenada includes its name in the anthem, but it is also the name of a Spanish city.
209 The church has never had a problem appropriating paganisms in the past, when it suited them to do so. Why the fuss now?
208 “The words to Danny Boy, were in fact written by am Englishman, a solictor from Gloucester.”
And of no import at all, the lyrics to “You’re a pink toothbrush, I’m a blue toothbrush” were written by a Birmingham solicitor. (Or maybe a barrister, come to think of it.)
There’s a reason they dwindle, by degrees, into the law….
210 - I heard it once - I can’t defend the claim!!
Oldest, without substantial changes perhaps?
214
you can pretty much hear than in any pub on a Fri night. I think they now call it Karaoke.
@212:
Nope. It was actually written for a woman. The fact that it’s sung usually by men makes it Dangerously Gay. People pretend that it’s a father/son thing, but it was written as a love song.
@222:
Easter and Christmas being two rather big examples of pagan symbology we’d have to dump.
I have to go into a meeting (damn meetings, interrupting my pb.com time!), so will speak to you good chaps and chapesses later on.
Hwyl!
214 “There was an immensely popular French entertainer, about 100 years ago, called La Petomaine, who reproduced popular tunes by his musical farting.”
Played on the TV by Leonard Rossiter, I seem to recall.
227. And that would just be for starters. The Mary cult would have to go too - in those sects which haven’t already supressed that most blatant of paganisms.
217 - Did you have a bad experience in English Literature? Blake is one of my favourite poets for the passion and power of his words.
Meanwhile simultaneously we have posters saying kind things about Danny Boy, about which the best that can be said is that it would pass muster as a Westlife B side.
207. I once had Sunday Lunch in Butetown. Very lively…..
227 Christmas, certainly, but Easter?
Well within living memory, there were Scots who would make a point of going to work on Christmas day, to avoid participating in a pagan ceremony.
226 I think it fits either way, Martin, but I won’t challenge you to a duel over it.
Perhaps the transexual community could adopt it?
232 Congratulations, Antifrank, on living to tell the tale.
181. 214.
Turkish mythology depicts dragons, Ejderha, which send fire out their tails.
222 — Christian Voice isn’t “the church”; it’s a far-right fundamentalist organization which, fortunately, few pay attention to.
231 - I’m sure he is good but I utterly loathe that poem. We studied it at school once, the teacher asked what we would like to say to the poet about his poem. Half of us said just a few words, “God is not an Englishman”.
I always wondered about the lyrics to Danny Boy, do they have Glens in Ireland?
@233:
Are you kidding me? Easter?
Look at its name - Easter = Oestrus! They’re not even being subtle.
Eggs? Bunnies? Fertility symbols left, right and centre? That’s not even slightly pagan, is it?
Here’s a Washington Post article providing a comprehensive profile of Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, basically portraying him as half insane clown, half far-right fringe extremist. The funny thing is that the writer could probably have done her cause more good by painting a glowing portrait of the man, thus possibly lending credibility to his effort and drawing more conservative voters to his candidacy on election day.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR2008081702456.html
233. And if Sir Arthur Whats-his-face who wrote The Golden Bough is to be believed they’d have to give up the crucifixion too. How ironic that the fundamentalists would end up with the same hippy-Jesus as thepost-God christians.
I mean is it like the, ‘White Cliffs of Dover’ written by an American, there are no Bluebirds in England, they are found only in the USA.
Jerusalem is too difficult to sing. The Aussies made a big mistake in not choosing “Waltzing Matilda” when they changed their anthem. Churchill called it the best tune ever written.
Yep, Morus, Basque is older than Welsh, sorry. Though there are similarities in totally incomprehensibility and uselessness.
Basque is so old some think it comes from the language of pre-Homo Sapiens - Cro Magnon man, Neanderthals, etc. Now that’s old.
239 - Yes, starting with the Glens of Antrim, a stretch of coastline that is superb and almost unknown outside Northern Ireland.
@245:
According to the ‘pedia, there are two languages isolate in Europe: Basque and Etruscan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_isolate
239 - Yes we have many beautiful glens in Ireland. Try the glens of Antrim or Glendalough in Wicklow for starters.
@244:
I’d go with Tom Waits’s Matilda over the trad one anyday.
244. Jerusalem has brilliant words though - maybe the greatest of any anthem. William Blake after all. And I think it had a very cool tune, I reckon. If it was the English anthem we could be righty proud of it.
However, you’re right, the vocal register required for Parry’s tune makes it hard to sing - a fairly important attribute for any anthem.
But then again, I have French friends who say the Marseillaise is a total bitch to sing - the words just don’t fit the tune - and if you listen hard, they’re right. I think this is maybe a problem with the French language: it doesn’t suit certain kinds of lyrics - pop songs, marches, etc.
And with that musicological bombshell, I’m off to watch some DVDs, sawadee-K.
233. Easter=Eostre=pagan goddess. So even the name is pagan.
That’s the way the church used to work - going with the grain to a certain extent, to get established. I’m sure its founder would have heartily approved - or perhaps not.
240 Granted, there are pagan elements, but it wasn’t really a case of Christianising an existing pagan festival, like Yule, or the Saturnalia.
Easter was observed from a very early point in Christian history, as an explicitly Christian ceremony. I admit, it’s odd that in this country, the name used was that of a pagan goddess, whereas in most European countries, the name used is closely linked to the Passover.
243 - the bluebird is just a very traditional folk symbol of happiness and prosperity I think rather than a reference to a particular species. Vera wasn’t saying they had died out due to the war but would be making a comeback as soon as hostilities were over.
@252:
If it was an explicitly Christian festival, whence all the eggs and bunnies?
254 Probably just a bit of fun, like Maypoles. Do the eggs and bunnies form part of Easter celebrations on the Continent?
@253:
Still, Vera was a bit sinister. With her “We’ll meet again” which may as well have been called “You’ll be dead soon. Bye!”
244 If you think Jerusalem is difficult to sing, try ‘Danny Boy’. I can’t do it without two octave shifts.
@255:
See, I’m not having that because the symbolism is rather too clear, especially when taken along with the name, and the timing.
There’s an explicit attempt to (at least in our green and pleasant land) to create a fertility rite here. If not the church, then who?
254 - I think that it arose mainly with the conversion of Rome under Constantine. Certainly it is very hard from this side of history to see what the Christian church looked like prior to this, the Romanisation of it was so thorough. The Romans under Constantine hugged Christianity close and made it more palatable to them. It is conceivable that they therefore in some way diminished both its radical effectiveness and its threat.
256 Wasn’t it a distortion of the old Icelandic lament ‘Whale Meat Again?’
I’ll get me coat.
Well I can’t disagree with Wales for flag or anthem. Though I’d also rank highly the flags and some of the suggested anthems for England (Jerusalem), Scotland(Flower of Scotland) and Northern Ireland (Danny Boy) too.
The only flag I like as much as ANY of the British flags is the flag of the Faroe Islands.
I LIKE Jerusalem. “I like my country”, it says, “all of it, despite its many faults, which, with the resolution to do so, we will sort out”. Who wouldn’t want to sign up to that? I’m sure that isn’t exactly what William Blake meant, but if he wanted people to take him at his word he shouldn’t write in metaphors; he should have been a polemicist rather than a poet. And I like the imagery; the mountains green; the pleasant pasture; the clouded hills, the dark satanic mills; the rather odd things called for in the second verse. It’s only problem is my inability to reach the bottom note at the end of the second line (and I sing in a low bass rumble). I think I must start too low.
254 - This was entirely deliberate. Here is the letter from Pope Gregory to one of St Augustine’s sidekicks when they were converting the English:
“To his most beloved son, the Abbot Mellitus; Gregory, the servant of the servants of God. We have been much concerned, since the departure of our congregation that is with you, because we have received no account of the success of your journey. When, therefore, Almighty God shall bring you to the most reverend Bishop Augustine, our brother, tell him what I have, upon mature deliberation on the affair of the English, determined upon, viz., that the temples of the idols in that nation ought not to be destroyed; but let the idols that are in them be destroyed; let holy water be made and sprinkled in the said temples, let altars be erected, and relics placed. For if those temples are well built, it is requisite that they be converted from the worship of devils to the service of the true God; that the nation, seeing that their temples are not destroyed, may remove error from their hearts, and knowing and adoring the true God, may the more familiarly resort to the places to which they have been accustomed. And because they have been used to slaughter many oxen in the sacrifices to devils, some solemnity must be exchanged for them on this account, as that on the day of the dedication, or the nativities of the holy martyrs, whose relics are there deposited, they may build themselves huts of the boughs of trees, about those churches which have been turned to that use from temples, and celebrate the solemnity with religious feasting, and no more offer beasts to the Devil, but kill cattle to the praise of God in their eating, and return thanks to the Giver of all things for their sustenance; to the end that, whilst some gratifications are outwardly permitted them, they may the more easily consent to the inward consolations of the grace of God. For there is no doubt that it is impossible to efface everything at once from their obdurate minds; because he who endeavours to ascend to the highest place, rises by degrees or steps, and not by leaps. Thus the Lord made Himself known to the people of Israel in Egypt; and yet He allowed them the use of the sacrifices which they were wont to offer to the Devil, in his own worship; so as to command them in his sacrifice to kill beasts, to the end that, changing their hearts, they might lay aside one part of the sacrifice, whilst they retained another; that whilst they offered the same beasts which they were wont to offer, they should offer them to God, and not to idols; and thus they would no longer be the same sacrifices. This it behooves your affection to communicate to our aforesaid brother, that he, being there present, may consider how he is to order all things. God preserve you in safety, most beloved son”.
241 Why would an increased Barr vote be good for McCain.
@262:
Clearly the Romans hadn’t invented paragraphs. Erk.
264 - You’re a big boy. I’m sure you can plough through it. The sentence which is often thought of as the epitome of it is: “For there is no doubt that it is impossible to efface everything at once from their obdurate minds; because he who endeavours to ascend to the highest place, rises by degrees or steps, and not by leaps.” In other words, you can put up with pagan traditions so long as they have taken Christianity on board.
262 Thanks. So in this country at least, some pagan elements were retained to make the celebration of Easter more palatable for newly-converted Saxons.
264/266 And I suppose on the Continent, where many of the barbarians had been converted before the fall of the Empire, there was less need for such concessions.
@266:
I think the egg and bunny symbolism at Easter is pretty widespread throughout much of Europe, not just the UK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter#Religious_and_secular_Easter_traditions
Back on thread.
After announcing that I have backed Chelsea to wih this season’s Premiership campaign i will go in heavy on Tim Kaine to be Obama’s V.P.
Well, I’m starting the campaign here and now to Keep Hallowe’en Special.
I would imagine that someone who is today looking at this site for the first time ever and reading backward through the last few dozen posts would wonder what the hell this site has to do with politics. False advertising!
S&S 271 Funnily enough, that’s what I have just done! Even for me, as a seasoned visitor, it was a bit much! Although when PB gets religion, it does it pretty well, I have noted in the past!!
267 O/T But what would be your equivalent of the Portillo moment in reverse in 2010 if you could pick.
104. The Germans haven’t ditched the anthem, though. It’s still “Deutschland uber Alles,” “uber Alles in der Welt”…
No it isn’t. It’s “Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit” (Unity and Right and Freedom).
Rumours on McCain’s VP (someone from Ohio):
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/18/mccain_zeroes_in_on_ohio_running_mate.html
The Irish National Anthem Rocks, and Ireland is one of the few countries where it’s still considered de rigeur to sing the national anthem (in Gaelic, of course) in pubs and at concerts.
English version
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=D2-7_c6wazA&feature=related
re Danny boy: Fred Weatherly had already written the lyric and another tune, which sank without trace. A couple of years later, a relative happened to send him the sheet music to the Londonderry Air, and he discovered it fitted his lyric perfectly!
He never set foot in Ireland….
274- same sh*t, different shovel
I think Jack’s slacking -
Today’s trackers
Rasmussen - Obama 46 (46), McCain 45 (44)
Gallup - Obama 46 (45), McCain 43 (45)
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109639/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-43.aspx
Interesting Rasmussen poll on US attitudes to Russia -
“Fifty-nine percent (59%) say American troops should not be sent to keep the peace in the troubled area, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey (Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and other data).
With eight out of 10 (80%) saying they are following the Georgia story at least somewhat closely, 43% of voters now think the United States should take diplomatic action against Russia, up from 31% early last week.
But, despite the numerous Cold War references that have been made publicly in the past few days, Americans still overwhelmingly do not regard Russia as an enemy. Fifteen percent (15%) say Russia is an enemy of the United States; 5% say it is an ally, and 76% rate the relationship as somewhere in between (Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and other data).
A plurality of voters (48%) continue to believe that Republican presidential candidate John McCain is better able to deal with Russia, but 40% think Democrat Barack Obama is the more capable. Last week, 51% rated McCain as the best equipped to handle the crisis in Georgia, compared to 36% who believed that of Obama.”
However,
“nearly one-quarter of Americans (24%) have no worries that Russia will attack the United States, while 49% say they are not very worried that this will happen. Twenty-four percent (24%) are concerned about this possibility, however, including five percent who say they are Very Worried. ”
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/50_say_un_peacekeepers_should_be_sent_to_georgia_only_22_want_u_s_troops_involved
I wonder what sort of result the same questions would elicit from a UK audience.
276 - The national anthem is just the chorus, not the entire song (which, like GSTQ, has a few embarrassing verses). It’s a crap anthem and really isnt played after gigs or clubs any more (outside Roscommon anyway).
You could shoot a figurative cannon through this site today and not hit anyone who had anything to say about politics. And here we are, on the virtual eve of monumental political events such as VP selections, national conventions, debates, etc. I can’t imagine what things will be like at PB by mid-November.
280 - It’s silly season. Do you not have silly season over there?
101. My favourite national anthem depends on what mood I’m in.
If I’m feeling patriotic, it’s the UK
If I’m feeling calm and sombre, it’s Austria or Croatia or Czech
If I’m indulging in my polyglot tendencies, it’s South Africa or Switzerland
If I’m feeling energetic, it’s Brazil or Italy or Ukraine
If I’m feeling Francophone, it’s Gabon
If I want to support the plucky underdog, it’s Papua New Guinea
If I’m feeling internationalist, it’s DPRK or Zimbabwe
If I’m feeling historical, it’s Israel
If I’m feeling monarchist, it’s Jordan or Netherlands
If I’m feeling lazy, it’s Liechtenstein
282 - Isn’t Lichtenstein’s national anthem set to the music of GSTQ?
Maybe Nick Palmer could stage a coup against Gordon Brown today to liven things up a bit. Are you reading this, Dr. Palmer?
285- OK, that’s perhaps a little extreme. Maybe you could just switch parties to the Tories; I’m sure that would make a splash.
273 Labour lose Morley & Outwood.
284 Its certainly the silly season - Georgia invaded, Veep choice about to be announced, Gordon Brown lost and no-one searching for him - and its the origin of Easter and patriotic anthems….
108 Other national anthems which are in 3/4 are Austria, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Gambia, Greece, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Poland, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Serbia, Switzerland, USA, Wales.
Bangladesh is 3/8
Kuwait and Yemen are 6/8
Ghana is 12/8
39.”Crumbs. I wonder who’ll break the news to Putin.”
286 - Dont get my hopes up….
The ideal flag should be easy to reproduce by amateur enthusiasts, i.e. no complicated shields or emblems.. My favourite is mauritius, with all four main colours (red, blue, yellow and green) in that order going downwards.
286. I’ll second that. Jacqui Smith is expected but if Balls goes, I might even risk my first alocholic drink for 7 years!
If it5 wasn’t for the complicated emblem in the left, I would like the Zimbabwe flag most.
67.”Re 37 Tim Montgomerie was IDS’s chief aide and went onto to create ConHome. He is from the authoritarian wing of the party and refuses to put a link to PB on his site.”
Mike, I have never understood why he doesn’t link to PB.com, he quotes or mentions some of your articles on his site regularly?
163. Cymrophile as I am, the flag of Wales is disqualified from my criteria for having a complex dragon on it.
294. To be fair, he only seems to link to right-wing sites.
173. Anyway, SeanT and I have now declared the winner.
You can’t declare a competition closed before I’ve even arrived! I declare it open again.
287- The PM is lost?! That’s definitely a big story. But you Brits have only yourselves to blame, since you could easily have used one of those harnesses on a leash that you see parents using with their children.
Where are these veep picks then? The world is waiting!
Starsandstripes - nobody has mentioned McCain’s pick for rages now, is the thinking that Pawlenty is a done deal? What’s been going on there?
204. The Netherlands anthem praises the king of Spain.
299 - Whoops, Freudian slip ‘McCain’s pick for ages’ not ‘pick for rages’.
283, Yes, which is why singing or learning it is a lazy option.
Latest ICM UK poll
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/18/polls.labour
The Tories are on 44%, up one, Labour on 29%, up one, and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 19%.
299- You’re right about the McCain VP situation, nobody seems to want to talk about it. I’ve largely avoided it myself since I really have never had a good idea of which way McCain will want to go with his pick. Even though Socrates thinks Pawlenty would be a terrible choice, I’m not so sure about that and I think he’s as good a possibility as any. I haven’t even heard any good buzz lately about which way the wind is blowing. Maybe McCain himself is still undecided, or maybe he decided a long time ago and has just kept it to himself. I wish I could cast some light on that situation, but I really don’t know.
But Pawlenty is only one possibility. I think others that have been mentioned such as Cantor, Crist, and Portman must still be seriously considered by us outsiders but I think he could pull a surprise pick out of a hat, too, such as Lieberman (that’s purely my speculation!).
300- The King of Spain does seem like a nice guy, though.
The thought occurred to me that predicting who the VP candidates are going to be is as opaque as predicting the next Pope. I went to see what PB.com said about the Papal contest in April 2005, but hardly anybody even mentioned it.
306- Doesn’t there seem to be something fundamentally wrong about betting on who will be the next Pope?
300. It was a misprint. They meant Ashley Giles.
282. If I’m forced to choose one, I reckon South Africa.
It’s got a cool flag too, so that’s the best combination.
307. No - why would it?
310. Have you heard any whispers on the way God is leaning this time? Any ideas on what his strategy will be?
I like the Marsellaise - but I despair of ever watching French sports - their supporters simply sing Allez Les Bleus to as many different tunes as they can think of!!
But for rousing song and inspirational lyrics the best anthem in the world must be Mae Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau (although I am biased)
304. S&S - How about Ohian John Kasich’s chances? See:
http://www.northstarwriters.com/jw029.htm
300. King Philip wasn’t.
203 - snippet from the ICM poll
Asked to say which of Cameron and Brown would make the best prime minister, 42% of those polled say Cameron, 21% say Brown and 23% say neither. When voters are asked to choose between Cameron and Miliband, 40% say Cameron, 19% say Miliband and 18% say neither.
The breakdown of the results shows voters in every age bracket, every social class, and every part of Britain except Scotland believe Cameron would be a better prime minister than Brown. When Cameron is compared with Miliband, he wins in every age, class and region or country, except narrowly among 18 to 24-year-olds.
ICM also asked voters to compare their impressions of Brown and Miliband in 11 categories. Voters believe Brown to be more trustworthy, more prepared to make a stand on difficult issues, a more competent manager, and more likely to tell the truth than Miliband. The prime minister scored particularly well on being prepared to make a stand on difficult issues, ahead of Miliband by 32 points to 11. Miliband was seen as “more style than substance” by 41% to 6% and “more likely to spin” by 33% to 24%.
However, the survey showed up Brown’s perceived weaknesses too, and gave some succour for supporters of Miliband who argue he should seize the moment and embark on a risky but potentially decisive challenge in the autumn.
Miliband is seen as “more on my wavelength” by more voters and was considered to be most looking to the future. He is seen as having the widest appeal by a large 38% to 8% margin over Brown, and as making those asked “more likely to vote Labour”, by a narrower gap, 18% to 14%.
Evening all, on topic, does anyone really have a clue who the VP candidates might be. It seems to me that none of you have a clue, not even Morus who is going to be there.
I have always liked the Imperial Russian flag and anthem. Tchaikovsky made such wonderful arrangements of it in the 1812 Overture. It also makes me think of Janet Suzman and Michael Jayston walking for hundeds of yards along the Palace corridors in Nicholas and Alexandra. The French anthem is easy to sing. Its the Italians who always seem to get left behind in the first few bars.
I always remember that classic sketch of Billy Connelly suggesting the National Anthem being changed to the Archers theme tune.
Did anyone else see the footage of Gordon attending John MacDougall’s funeral. The way his jacket was stretched over his widening girth suggests our PM is either comfort eating or storing up blubber due to impending food shortages.
279. It must only be in the Fenian pubs in Dublin that I’ve frequented then…
307 Why? He is only the Bishop of Rome.
303. Surely time for a new thread. That’s (yet) another very handsome lead for the Tories, during the traditionally Tory-disfavouring holiday season.
Oh dear Labour, what can the matter be? You’ve got an MP called big Royston Hattersley?!*
*I couldn’t think of any other relevant Labour name that rhymed with “lavatory”.
311- I suppose the non-Catholic might not see the issue, and the anti-Catholic would see it and revel in it. Your comment puts it in perspective!
Well it is the silly season isn’t it?
A company in which presidential candidate John McCain’s son quit as CFO has posted higher than expected losses.
Andrew McCain quit as director of Silver state Bancorp at the end of July, which announced a $62.7m loss a week alter. But its latest quarterly filing shows the loss at $73.2m, because the company had to increase its loan loss reserves, reports CFO.com.
The alteration followed an update of the collateral underlying one of its commercial bank loans – there is no indication that McCain or bank officials did anything wrong.
Reports suggested he had quit his post at Silver State as it would be difficult to maintain that role while serving as CFO of Arizona beer distributor Hensley & Co and as chairman of the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce.
interesting tax planning from Merrill Lynch
http://www.pickledpolitics.com/archives/2244
286, catching up, read this post and got very excited:D
I do hope it comes true. I shall play my part in the downfall of Balls!
313- I love the title of the article, “John Kasich: The Best VP Choice if McCain Wants to Win.” So apparently we must first determine whether McCain wants to win before we can know if Kasich would be the best VP choice. Kasich is seemingly a nice and earnest guy and certainly wouldn’t be a mistake for McCain, but I’ve heard nothing to indicate that he is near the top of any list. He would also likely bring the key state of Ohio with him unless Obama won in landslide fashion. But given the media career he’s pursued since leaving the House, he somehow seems like an odd choice. If he had stayed in the arena of serious politics and/or policy, as his Ohio colleague Portman has, I would see him as a more likely possibility.
316. No, no-one has any idea at all and there are far too many clues pointing in all sorts of directions for it to be anything other than completely impenetrable (at least, it is so to me) - hence the lack of discussion. Not only don’t we know, but it’s extremely hard to guess.
Actually, the only thing we can say is that this is going to be another piece of evidence to support the “pbc’s yes/no questions are always ‘no’” thesis - today won’t be veepday. In fact, if Mike keeps running this topic, Obama may not even be able to pick a running-mate for fear of falling foul of what is becoming something of an Iron Law.
On the anthems/flags debate, our anthem is dire (unlike the flag, which by luck and good judgement is to my mind the best in the world). Anthems-wise, I think the best are: French, American, Russian (now they’ve gone back to the Soviet-era tune), Italian. The South African one captures the spirit of the country nicely, though goes on a bit long.
320. It might be a bit more tasteless were it not widely known that the princes of the Church are not beyond speculating on such matters themselves.
325- Perhaps Mike could run the following article in order to force the issue: ‘Is some day other than today going to be VEEP-day?’
307. Because the papacy is a holy institution that has been occupied by such saintly figures as Rodrigo Borgia.
326- As far as I know, speculation is not proscribed anywhere in the Bible.
323 - I thought you were more interested in the ascent of Balls, preferably at escape velocity?
325. Why is everyone praising the Italian anthem? Isn’t it some long anonymous dirge? Or am I mistaking it for Flower of Scotland?
On our British anthem, yes it is mediocre at best - and not even British (it’s a Haydn tune, innit?). What is rather annoying is that we could have Land of Hope and Glory, which would surely go straight into the top three anthems in the world - amazingly stirring, rhapsodic, potent, tuneful, and very very memorable. It’s so good the Americans have shamelessly nicked it for some stupid presidential ceremony.
Jerusalem is more poetic, but harder to sing (as discusssed upthread).
329. Yes, I’m sure the money changers in the temple always charged the narrowest of spreads and never traded on their own account.
331 - God Save the King/Queen is not a Haydn tune. Haydn loved the tune so much that he composed a similar tune for Gott erhalte Franz den Kaiser.
333 - Further to that, I’m reliably informed by a friend who is a music professor that the best candidate for composing it is one John Bull (1562–1628).
331. And Jerusalem has the problem of only referring to ‘England.’ Oh well, if Mr. Salmond gets his way that might not even matter soon!
Our current national anthem is tosh, let’s face it. Musically, it’s a dirge; and lyrically it’s insipid (the first three lines would make some of William McGonagalls (the ‘worst poet ever’), efforts seem positively Shakespearean).
330, well of course. But I’d like him to be an unemployed cannonball:)
332- Non-belief need not be synonymous with disrespect.
thanks for the pickup on the big Ohio rally. Pick an Ohioan, John!
331. Haydn would never have put his name to such mediocre rubbish as God Save the Queen. He wrote “Deutschland uber..”, originally as “The Emperor of Austria’s Hymn”.
However Haydn, Bach, Beethoven and many others haven taken the leaden tune as a challenge to compose variations that are at least vaguely musical…
And btw “Land of Hope and Glory” is used as the American graduation song. God Save the Queen is used for “My country ’tis of thee, sweet land of liberty”..
VP picks are very difficult to predict, so I have mostly stuck to this simple rule: Lay whoever is the favorite at any point of time (Hillary, Webb, Bayh, Kain, Clark)- although I have also hedged some of these lays with better odds from the bookmakers.
Consequently, I have today sold Biden on BF at 2/1 – cashing in on one of the few net positions I had taken earlier.
I also have a positive bet on Romney (33/1) – thanks, shadsy :-).
On the democratic side, I really have no idea who it is going to be, but quite sure it will not be Clark or Hillary. On the republican side, my favorite has been and remain Pawlenty.
303 They can’t be unchanged. ICM had the Lib Dems on 16% in their last Poll iirc.
339 - If the tune is as early as late 16th/early 17th Century it would explain the regular progression and the lengthy note values but I think it is far from mediocre.
331. Italy is long but not a dirge - it’s energetic and rampant.
340- Biden is at 2/1?! I wouldn’t see him as a value bet at 10/1. I just can’t believe Obama would be foolish enough to pick such an unpleasant and distasteful individual.
By the way, Jan, are you really from Norway? Jeg er ogsa av norsk avstamning.
I bow to the superior musicological knowledge of the pb thinktank. I always assumed GSTQ was Haydn coz it has that insipid quality I associate with a composer I don’t much like. All those symphonies! Eight thousand concertos! Stop!
I guess the fact that GSTQ was composed by “John Bull” does give it a certain authenticity; still a fairly tedious tune.
Actually, the New Order song for the World Cup was pretty good. “We’re playing for England - Ing-er-land!” - and the Lightning Seeds “Three Lions on my Shirt” is quite stirring too.
Jesus it’s two am in Bangkok and I’m discussing the merits of “The Lightning Seeds”. Ta-ra!
331 Sean
The Italian anthem isn’t as dirge. Here it is as “sung” by Francesco Totti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXrEK-O0uXs
339. And the Beethoven version (piano bit) was used as the theme to an early-eighties BBC documentary series about the post-war British occupation of Germany…
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=L21Tg_UdL_Q
343. Like Avanti populo?
344 Yeah but then Bush picked Cheney when there were millions of Republicans who who would have attracted more votes to the ticket.
345. My book says that GSTQ is “Author unknown” and “Composer unknown”.
The German National Anthem was compsed by Franz Joseph Haydn and written by August Heinrich Hoffmann von Fallersleben.
349- Do you believe Obama would repeat that mistake?
I predict that McCain will select George Bush (snr) as his VP candidate.
352- Clever move, but only if Obama first selects Jimmy Carter.
Labour lose Outwood and Morley! We can [and do] dream!
351 Biden’s biggest issue is ridicule not being cast as the new Dick Cheney. I think he’d be neutral in vote terms whereas Cheney at least in 2004 probably repelled more votes than he attracted. Why Bush stuck by him in a tight contest is a mystery.
352. And I predict Richard Milhous Nixon will be McCain’s VP.
I can’t believe that the VP is going to make that much of a difference. But I can’t imagine Biden getting it.
Gore I can imagine, for some reason…
OT: a comment on the new ICM poll
http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/08/guardian-icm-poll.html
On Tim Montgomerie - he used to link to pb. That’s how I found it.
Used to be on Tory Home regularly until I discovered pb - that could be the problem.
Not me personally obviously but the phenomenon.
I thought Mike might have asked him to remove the link thinking he’d got too my Tories. That was clearly wrong - there can never be ‘too many Tories’.
356. Don’t be silly - he’s dead!
358, only been here since the tumultuous days of last conference season (got into political blogging and read a small selection but only post here).
I think the apparent prevalence of full on Tories and Tory-inclined persons now is due to both the fact that the Tories are stomping all over Labour in the polls, and the psychological impact that has on supporters. Sports fans cheer when they win, and don’t when they don’t.
Article in the Telegraph on betting markets as better forecasters than polls - so what’s the best market on forecasting the VP choices?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/08/18/scibetting118.xml
356. Nuh-uh. Cryogenics is a wonderful thing.
http://www.strk3.com/webimages/robotnixon3.gif
Here he is campaigning:
http://theinfosphere.org/images/2/29/Robo_Nixon.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a9/Futurama_ep70.jpg
358 - I think Mr M might have had a sense of humour failure Mr Smithson linked to ConHome as ‘ContinuityIDS’.
360 Are we sports fans??
363. That’s class.
360. Agreed. If Cameron becomes PM and the Tories start becoming unpopular (as is inevitable with any government) this site will be crawling with Labour-inclined posters crowing, I promise you!
366 - Only if there is a Labour party to incline to!
349. It’s more apt to describe it as “Cheney picked Cheney”.
366. Further, I was having a conversation with someone a while ago about why the right in the UK seem to have dominated the blogosphere. We both seemed to conclude that it’s largely because Labour are in power and it’s much more difficult (and less glamourous) to start a blog praising a government than it is to start a blog and moan about one - because the blogosphere can be used very interestingly as a democratic counterbalance; cutting through the spin and formalities of the political scene. I should think when the Tories are in power, left-leaning blogs will become more powerful.
364, I suppose you could argue that politics is a sport of sorts, with verbal jousting to enjoy, regular(ish) fixtures and once every 4-5 years an enormous clash to enjoy.
363. I thought that was their prefered name!????!!!
I think that Conhome has some very strange people on there - Mind you Labour & the LD sights have just as bad. Sometimes i think patisanship has replaced relious faith with some of the posters! Even political parties you support should not be given a blank cheque! Pays always to have a detached sceptism. I tend to back the Tories but when they advocate stupid or unbalanced projects/ ideology i walk away. This is the thing that puzzles me about Labour, they don’t even have ideolgy to bind the voters and memebers together.
It would seem to me that the only thing that binds voters to Labour is stupidity. Labour arn’t really socialist, semi-detached from the unions (Dependent on cash & giving unions favours but removed from any democratic union support) and blatently incomptent. Why would any one vote Labour at the moment?
367. I think there’ll always be a Labour party, somehow. If it can throw itself from being dominated by militant Trotskyists to essentially being a centrist/centre-right party, it seems it can throw itself in any direction without ceasing to exist under the ‘Labour’ banner..
… though if the union link was severed……..
On flags, what about the worst:
The World’s 16 least inspiring flags?
(The lameness of Libya’s “what - we need more than plain green?” and coolness of Wales’s “Hey - a dragon!” are mentioned there, as well as the famous Balochistan Flying Camel* and the jizzness of Hezbollah**)
*You’ve got to see it and read it, really.
**Seriously, got to see it and read it.
As a sort of rider to the discussion yesterday, here’s an interesting DNA map of Europe, showing that, while Italians may be relatively isolated the Finns are way out there on their own.
Britain shares much with Ireland, the Netherlands and Norway which isn’t really a surprise I would have thought.
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2008/08/18/306-the-genetic-map-of-europe/
Great article on South Ossetia and Kosovo:
http://www.slate.com/id/2197704/
372. Could it swing back to lefies though - the really important to think about with the labour party was they looked leftwing in the early 80’s. Scruffy clothes, bad haircuts and untrimmed facial beards (That was just the women
), the men quite often had all those charecteristics plus a pipe and a nasty abbrasive self-ritousness.
Now contrast the left now to then, for instance John Macdonnel does not look like a lunitic leftie anymore? Once he delivers his thoughts then he sounds leftwing but in the sense of the horny-handed, beard wearing, barnical bottomed candidate circa 1983; they have all gone.
Just out of interest did Nick Palmer MP have a beard in 1983?
375 link doesn’t seem to work: is it just me?
344 Jada, jeg er 100 prosent norsk og bor i Oslo.
So is Miliband back from Hols now? If he is maybe he will step up his revolt against the leadership of the Labour party?
375. Works for me. I’ve had problems with that site before. You might need to download the new firefox or to use ccleaner.
379 I think he has decided he’s revolting enough for the time being.
Been having a quick look at the comments to Yvette Cooper’s masterful economic article in the Guardian. Didn’t search for too long, but couldn’t find anything in support.
Hmm. If Labour stays as is (ie, buggering up every decision and letting the country drift as internal feuds begin) and the economy, as predicted, continues to decline, maybe we will end up seeing a fudnamental shift in the political landscape of the country. Were I a better, I wouldn’t stick a farthing on it, but it may be a possibility.
378- Flott!
381. Yes! Brown may still be thinking about eating chilled miliband brains though! I am amased Miliband got away with that so well!
377 Thanks - but changing to firefox didn’t fix it. I’ll try tomorrow maybe.
378- Jan, if you don’t mind, I would greatly appreciate it if you could comment either now or whenever you can about what is happening politically in Norway. Why does the Fremskrittsparti seem to have emerged as the top party there, at least according to some recent polls that have been featured at the Angus polling site. Do you think they could really win the largest share in the next parliamentary elections and possibly form a government. This seems like a major shift in Norwegian politics. Takk skal du ha!
384 - Revenge is a dish best served cold, at a time of your choosing. Miliband will knnow he has it coming. Brown will just keep him guessing as to when.
384 I am not sure he has got away with it. Revenge a dish best eaten cold …and all that.
I believe he was ’setting his stall out’ for later, not for now, and failed to appreciate the fevered atmosphere would mean he would lose all control of the narrative. Milliband has never done anything on his own. He has always been someone’s agent.
Apparently over Iraq, he told Clare Short he was ‘keeping out of it’. Speaks volumes.
He was in danger of being the one who knifed Brown unintentionally and may still be seen as the executioner if Brown goes soon.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4553466.ece
Pot calling kettle black? All Brown does is play games; GE2007, IHT change, 10P u-turn etc etc!
389, reminds me of an early PMQs when he said he thought Cameron wanted to end Punch and Judy. If he’d been winning the bout it would look commanding, patting the valiant loser on the head with contempt. But because, as usual, Cameron had won, it sounded like he was begging, pleading for it to stop.
Labour = LOL!
387 Snap consigliere.
303. RE latest Gurdian ICM poll.On the Mike method of comparison (with the last ICM poll in any newspaper) the changes are versus ICM sunday express Con -1 lab -2 lib +3.
I suspect however that the ICM Sundayn Express poll wa san outlier.It is interesting to see that the poll ratings for ICM and You Gov are converging in terms of Con and Lib Dem ratings.
Latest ICM(Guardian) Con 44,Lab 27,Lib 19
LatestYou Gov(STimes) Con 45,Lab 25,Lib 18
In May thefigures were
ICM Guardian Con 41,Lab 27,Lib 22
You Gov(STimes) Con 45,Lab 25,Lib 18.
388. Fair enough! I don’t rate Miliband - He is overhyped a bit like Nick Clegg: suppose that was the reasoning behind the recent thread!
Yes maybe Brown will serve a lovelly dish up- make him C of E as the economy slumps into recession! That ain’t going to look good in 5-10 years time for Miliband. Something these politicians never learn about leadership is if you start a challange you have to follow through even if you don’t win. I don’t buy the he who wields the knife theory. Didn’t Thatcher Knife Heath - it was a full frontal assualt; not like Hezza hiding behind Howe and to a lesser extent Lawson. Hezza was thought to be unsuitable due to his pro-eurupoean views not because his was shit: indeed cica 1995 people were said to be urging him to negotiate a transistion from Major to Hezza!
Obama =
394 - Quite, the politics of plotting is one of two ways. There is the brazen political assassination when you make your move and you don’t stop until you are at the top. The second is to stay well away from the main plot, pull the levers but never get caught. Brown was a master of option 2. Thatcher knew how to get away with option 1. Most politicians get caught vacillating between the two.
395. Nick Clegg = ……………
397 rearrange the letters: KNOIKNC ???
Yes!
Maybe Brown will make NK leader of the Lords and Minister for the today program! I should imagine Kinnock would be an effective alarm clock - Alright!!!!
398 Shouldn’t there be a B in there!
355- Bush’s two most puzzling personnel decisions, at least as I saw them at the time, were Cheney for VP and Harriet Myers for the Supreme Court.
Will TOMORROW be veep day?
PAPER: OBAMA MAY ANNOUNCE VP IN AM
Mon Aug 18 2008 17:01:04 ET
The NYT newsroom was buzzing late Monday afternoon after Obama-beat reporter Jeff Zeleny learned how the Dem hopeful has finalized his choice for a running-mate.
Obama has set out an elaborate roll-out to announce his decision that will begin with an early morning e-mail to supporters, perhaps as early as Tuesday, Zeleny has been told.
Is it Nunn? Is it Kaine? Is Hillary there? What about Kerry?
Developing… all night long
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashom.htm
Apparently the Olypmic team’s success is to be celebrated with a parade - in October.
Do I have a suspicious mind?
401. I thought Cheney was to provide Bush with experience and metal; to overcome the objection that Bush was inexperienced - not sure about Myers!
403 we could win 5000000 gold medals and it wouldn’t help Gordon!
403.
Knowing Brown, your thinking is probably spot on! He is a devil isn’t he! Then he says to his own team not to play politics! The thing with Brown is everything he does is so predictable: He is not cunning just stupid! 
405. No but it might offset the losses that Brown created when he sold Gold off cheap in 1999!
394 Martin, James Callaghan was a Chancellor faced with a dying economy, still managed to become PM 8 years after devaluation (and took the UK into further economic problems) and got called Sunny Jim. Healey is a Grand old Man despite being a pretty useless Chancellor, though he talked a good talk.
Agree though that Miliband doesn’t have the charisma or whatever the quality is that those two had.
405 You know what Gordon is like with stats.
By the time he does PMQs, we will have.
407 Rebecca Adlington is trying to save Britain from Brown’s gold madness!!!!!!!
All Labour voters are TEE HEE HEE!
408. aha - but sunny Jim never won an election (GE) and Healey was never a minister again! Though he did do sainsbury’s adverts in the 1990’s!
410. Yes, that’s being British for you: offseting the PM’s mistakes. Brown does not need to make a new edict on this as the whole population is paying for his mistakes!!!
I don’t know what you are all on about. It is self-evident that the best national anthem is Flower of Scotland, and the best flag is the Saltire (second the Lion Rampant for those who prefer something ornate).
Can you imagine it.. I can see clearly it now. The Olympian parade, Gordo superimposed on TV like America’s got talent, enough makeup to outdo Barbara Cartland…………
Entertaining thread! When I got married in 2000 and we were debating wedding music, I suggested Jerusalem as a suitable compromise between my socialism and my wife’s Christianity. (I got a pained look and hastily dropped the idea.)
- ukpaul, there was a poll question on UK attitudes to Georgia the other day, producing a result in line with the US one - IIRC only around 33% thought Britain should take a strong line on the issue.
- Sorry I can’t oblige with a coup to enliven your day, S&S. But a question: in Britain we constantly have hypothetical polls. you know, “If Miliband were leader and Britain were invaded by Belgium and there was an R in the month, how would it affect your vote?”, that sort of thing. But the VP seleciton process seems to be proceeding without any such polls at all. Suppose Obama did choose Clinton - it’d be a dramatic decision and would certainly shift votes in various ways. But nobody has a clue how much. Isn’t that odd?
- ICM poll: well, at the moment I think we count a 15% lead as not too bad - I recall that last month it was seen as mildly surprising after a string of 20+ leads. But we’re discussing degrees of awfulness so I wobn’t press the point!
416
Bad start Nick, It was her day not yours, you should have realised.. Socialism interfering in a wedding, laughable
The London parade is Boris’s idea …. and that clearly makes it a wonderful idea as oppossed to wretched political opportunism by Brown !!
Roger H at 393: no, the S Express ICM poll was 45-29-16, I think, so the 44-29 lead is down 1 and the LDs are up 3 over that poll. All the changes are within the margin of error, of course - it seems unlikely that the LDs have swung down 3 and up 3 within the last month. But in all three polls Labour is at 29%, slightly above the level in most other polls.
398. News just in - Neil Kinnock to be Barack Obama’s running mate!
418 BRILLIANT - Boris = world no 1 mayor!
Con gain Olympics!!!!
414 sorry the Union Flag & the Stars and Stripes are among the best - the St George’s Cross & Saltire have the simplicity shared in part with our Scandinavian cousins but don’t work as well in fashion (a Saltire T shirt is rubbish compared to a Union Flag one) or Pop Art.
Anthems matter more for the pride of history than for tunes - GSTQ, Star Spangled Banner, Marseillaise for example work when they are played in bad times because they connect to history (the Marseillaise being sung in the cafe in Casablanca). Have a distrust of stirring patriotic music, the Marseillaise excepted as its hard to sing properly.
418 Oh Boris’s idea… thats alright then….
415. Brown would mess it up - confuse medalists or get on the wrong bus! Instead of the Olympic Parade Bus he would end up on a sight seeing trip!
416. Nick - I can see where you were coming from there! But Socialism is not a religion to most people (even if it is to you!). At least you understood the lady did not agree! Some blokes are that insensitive they would not realise or care!
Nick, As you admit to being a socialist (at least in the past) have you ever had a beard?
Brown would hold it in Glenrothes………………
I missed the patriotic music discussion?
Interesting what effect music can have on you…
Nimrod - so moving… makes me cry. It really does. It makes my eyes well with pride because it makes me think of British history, our traditions, our culture, our heritage and personal sacrifice - and how it is disrespected, abused and trashed today. Particularly by Labour.
Land of Hope and Glory - so uplifting… makes me so joyous! It’s like ecstasy! Sheer, unashamed pride - just the sort Harriet Harman hates. And, no, Tyson/Jonathan/G/other tiresome lefties, let me preempt you, it’s not nationalistic “invade your country like a nazi” music (idiots - when will you learn?)- but the “mother of the free” line and “Land of Hope and Glory, fortress of the Free, How may we extol thee, praise thee, honour thee?” - is fantastic. Yes, it’s old fashioned, yes, it’s out-of-date - but that’s what I like about it. It’s historical.
So, we have some great music. It’s just the PC-lobby do their damn best to ban and subdue and I worry the Tory-”modernisers” will go along with this when they take power.
“well, at the moment I think we count a 15% lead as not too bad”
Speechless.
398 - wrong - it is Michael Foote or is he McCain’s running mate?
425. Sadly he probably would; as you can tell my opinion of Brown is beneath contempt (Not as a person! I’m sure his family love him) and is just not upto the job of PM. Blair has even beaten him to the olympics! It must be really frustrating for Labour folks at the moment, really they need to be designing a good strategy for opposition. It is interesting to wonder what Labour would do in opposition: I think that there main priority has to be levelling society - something that they have failed to do despite their efforts. Maybe if your objective is full employment like Labour’s has been/should have been, then Labour need to take the next step in opposition away from tax credits/ welfare state to low taxation pr no taxation for low earners. The left of centre needs to think the unthinkable only in as far as ditching existing baggage on the state. It will take some time in opposition but irronically Labour can implement this type of fundamental change where the Tories may struggle.
416 why chose ICM Nick. all the other polls are pretty much 20% plus, couldnt be a bit of spin could it?
Ben Brogan is back from his hols - liked his blog on what had happened since he was away, in summary:
Gordon Brown still PM though he’s disappeared
David Cameron now Foreign Secretary
David Miliband now Leader of the Opposition
Unlikely there will be a September coup, a September re-shuffle nor an early Glenrothes election.
No, Martin, have never had a beard! Or owned a pair of sandals. I do eat muesli, though, if that helps?
Agree with Casino that Land of Hope and Glory is stirring - have you seen the pro-British wartime propaganda movie Mrs Miniver? People grumble about the American accents etc., but it’s a great movie, and it concludes with the tune swelling up as the RAF fly over a bombed church - almost as memorable as the Marsaillaise bit in Casablanca, which is surely the ultimate anthem scene in film history.
430: No, just commenting on today’s poll, which hpapens to be from ICM. You seem a bit churlish this evening?
431. You might be right there in terms of Coup’s / leadership change. The agenda has moved on, for now anyway - what must be remebered is the miliband leadership stuff materialised from knowhere (Glasgow East accepted).
I didnt know ICM had a poll out tonight but its always better for Labour than any of the others. I wouldnt count any chickens on it. Churlish, perhaps its because I know how you write and why you write it……
416- Good to hear you’re out there and also that you have enough sense not to follow my advice.
I understand your puzzlement over the lack of President/VP polls given the perceived importance of the decision to the dynamics of the race. But there may be a few factors at play here:
1) Uncertainty over who the possibilities are. It is tough to poll the various matchups when you can’t even tell who’s in the running (a perpetual complaint among the betting community here at PB);
2) Lack of interest among polling organizations. Perhaps this just isn’t big enough for the pollsters to invest considerable time and money, or for anyone else to pay them to extract this information;
3) Lack of importance (dare I say it?!). Usually this turns out to be the most talked about non-event of the quadrennial process. We all spend months trying to read the tea leaves and imagine vast inherent consequences for the ultimate outcome of the race, but by election day, the VP’s really fade into the background and are generally of very limited importance.
Simon 9999
When Bolt won the 100m our EBC commentator went over and wished him well from all his English fans!! (what a prat)
On flags even many diehard SNP supporters have to admit the Union Jack is a great flag whilst the Scots flag is neither Scots or pretty. The English flag has the same problems but the Welsh have a great flag and the Northern Irish flag is at least their own.
Some Scots have started to abandon the Saltire and moved on to having a lion on their cars. Not seen 3 lions yet on an English car but many dragons on Welsh cars.
On anthems I love Rule Britannia. FYI it was an ancient Briton living in Scotland who first uttered the words “Britons never, never, never will be slaves” just before a battle against the Romans.
432. Absolutely Nick. Well said. It’s a piece of music that got us through the war - it reminded us *what* we were fighting for. But it’s also more than that; it reminds me what Britain *is* - a bastion of freedom.
In some respects Nick, it makes me sad that you aren’t more patriotic - with a innate love for our country, culture and its heritage.
I’d respect you around 3,000,000% more if you did.
Clement Atlee saw no contradiction. Neither do the Democrats in America.
I know you might *claim* you do have some affection for Britain, but, even if you do, it has not be borne out by your actions and you know how strong my views are on what you’ve done as an MP.
Shame
432.
I had to ask! Fair enough! No i don’t eat muesli either!
It is interesting though that Labour politicians circa 1983 presented an image of beards and smoking that no Labour person apart from the old school aka Dobson would entertain. Dobson has his place though as a traditional Labour figure. My feeling is that Britain would not be Britain without a fairly numerous Labour party.
I have not seen “Mrs Miniver” but alas i have seen Battle of Britain et al a few too many times!
426 For me, the most stirring pieces of music are Land of Hope and Glory, Cwm Rhondda, Mozart’s Requiem, and Zadok the Priest.
The element you condemn remind me of a friend who’s a guide at Hampton Court Palace. Most people like visiting it. But a tiny minority go there to hate it. As he says, “you can smell the ink from the Guardian on their fingers.”
418 No Jack W. Its still political. Its just its now Boris’s cunning plan to help Brown stay on.
438. A bit harsh - If he hated it as a place he would bot have taken a cut in pay!
Sure some of his positions on Russia i cannot agree with! But he has made an oath to the queen, which i don’t think i have done or many other posters for matter!
440. “Most people like visiting it. But a tiny minority go there to hate it. As he says, “you can smell the ink from the Guardian on their fingers.””
Pathetic, isn’t it?
426. Amazing how we can be conditioned to hear things that the composer never intended…
Nimrod was a musical portrait of his German publisher, August Jaeger (Hunter, Nimrod, geddit?)
Elgar loathed the appropriation of his Pomp and Circumstance No.1 for “Land of Hope and Glory”.
One of the best patriotic tunes, “The Dambusters March”, was just something Eric Coates happened to be playing around with (consciously in the style of Elgar), when the film-makers approached him to provide the score for a new war film….
Surely Martin the question of the oath is irrelevant. I have never had cause to take the oath, but would do so without question. Just because someone has taken the oath doesnt elevate them IMHO and that goes for all MP’s. I will bet there are many who have taken it thro gritted teeth…………….
Just out of interest i wonder if Nick will do a piece for here after the next election on his electoral process after the next election: Maybe he will still be the member for Broxtowe - if not it might be revealing as he could tell it how it happened and the thoughts he had on that.
442. Martin - that’s very mild for me. I don’t normally mince words.
I’m sure Nick is very “nice” as a person - but, unfortunately, he has had power over the last 11 years (not me) and his actions over the EU are absolutely unforgiveable.
He may be a fellow pb.com poster, but that doesn’t change, or moderate, my views.
Sorry.
444. Personally i like Bargue and air!
445. Or as Skinner read the words off the card with a straight-face, adding “….when she pays income tax.”
444. Hmm… That’ll be why Edward Elgar conducted it in *THIS* video then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxqFdcZz974
Honestly, Rod. You do talk some absolute rubbish sometimes.
403.”Apparently the Olypmic team’s success is to be celebrated with a parade - in October.”
Do I have a suspicious mind?
No, going on this government’s past record I always believe the worse until proved otherwise.
418.JackW, genuine question. Did Boris get to pick the date?
“Elgar loathed the appropriation of his Pomp and Circumstance No.1 for “Land of Hope and Glory”.
According to Ken Russell.
438 - I don’t see a contradiction between socialism and love of country either: I think you’re the one who feels they’re incompatible? For myself, I’d just claim affection, as you say, but I know lots of left-wingers who love Britain as passionately as anyone - they just disagree with you about some of the implications (e.g. they may feel Britain is best protected inside a strong EU), and why shouldn’t they? Don’t you feel that freedom to disagree is an important part of the British tradition?
Martin - yes, will be glad to if people are interested - win or lose!
447. I think any government over the last 20-30 years has supported EU legislation that many do not agree with. It is unfortunate if you judge him just on that measure as i am sure most of it is whipped votes!
If the Tories had been in power i am sure some euro intiatives they would have implemented would be equally gualling. Personally the EU intergration has gone a bit too far but it would probably have happened anyway. The social chapter, which i disagreed with in the early 1990’s has not done the damage predicted. We all need to factor in the increasingly global age we live in from Nato, EU to GATT trade rounds. Things are not like they once were and Labour should have opposed unfetted migration from EU accesion states within the last 10 years but we are where we are!
432.”I do eat muesli, though, if that helps?”
Nick, so does my other half but you would never call him a leftie. Personally I have never understood the appeal of eating something that looks and tastes like pigeon droppings.
449. She should pay income tax!
453 There is indeed no contradiction between socialism and love of country.
But some socialists clearly believe that there is.
So far as I know the Queen does pay Income tax. Wasnt it sorted by John Major?
So far as I know the Queen does pay Income tax. Wasnt it sorted by John Major?
450. No words to it, you chump!
I didn’t say Elgar loathed his own music. He loathed the jingoistic words to put to it by A.C. Benson!
Nice video anyhow. I’ve actually played Pomp and Circumstance No.1 (violin) at the Liverpool Philharmonic Hall (Sefton Youth Orchestra). So it’s just possible I’m not talking rubbish
Interesting fact: the first performance of it was there in 1901, and it was dedicated by the composer to the Liverpool Orchestral Society….
449, 456 — And she should have to carry an ID card as well!
455 ChrisD.
An inabilty to understand the muesli-eating habits of a husband.
Me too.
Starting to get abit weird this.
Enjoyed the musical tone of the thread today.
I like Flower of Scotland and the soltaire in a Scottish setting, or God save the Queen and the Union Jack for ceremonial occasions and the Olympics. Both stir national pride for different reasons.
Prefer Land of Hope and Glory to Jerusalem though.
459 ‘Wasnt it sorted by John Major?’
With hindsight, true of many things.
453. That would be great and interesting!
In terms of Socialism, the EU is an interesting concept - Tony Benn for instance does not advocate pro-EU positions due to his belief that it is an affront to democracy! Whilst i rather flippantly advised that advocates of Left-wing Labour ideology have changed physically: I wonder if the true Democratic Socialists believe in EU *inteference*, that is a supernational body setting the economic and political agenda.
Personally if someone is a socialist i don’t have a problem with; especiallly if they can reason and argue why a change in the system would produce a better society. I may not agree with the ideology or even the thought process but at least it is a constructive alternative!
462.It is getting a bit weird, but I thought it was sweet that NickP proffered a suggestion for a hymn at his wedding even if I was not surprised by his choice or his wife’s reaction. Fitaloon made sure that he was unavailable when that decision was taken for our wedding.
458. Yes there was some income tax tinkering but not sure how far it went. I maybe wrong as it is a long time ago but wasn’t it just basic rate?
453. Nick - Labour has done its best to dissolve the British state within and reduce its legislative ability without. It has been both a constitutional and cultural attack. Further EU integration has only weakened the power of our legislature and, by implication, the British voter. Hardly the actions of those who love their country.
We’ll be lucky if there still is a Britain to speak of in 50 years.
453. Martin - I couldn’t disagree with you more.
Had the Tories retained power, I expect there would be wholescale and v.large opt-outs from both Amsterdam and Nice and we might even have started down the road of a much looser relationship with the EU.
And the joys of the Social Chapter are only starting to be realised now - we dropped rapidly down the international competitiveness table as soon as it was adopted, but the pain will only truly be felt in a recession.
Remember: hardly any of new net jobs since 1997 have been taken by domestic unemployed British workers; they have been filled with cheap migrant Labour on short-term agency contracts to which these rules don’t apply.
Intersting change of methodology by ICM. the leadership questions were online showing phots of the people being plled about, not over the phone as weas the rest of the poll(ie not necessarily the same people. . The sample is small too only 1002 and the Tories are on 44% Lab 29 LibDems 19
Perhaps Mike Smithson would like to comment on this ?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/18/polls.labour
416 re: Polling for Vice President
There’s plenty of polling (and focus grouping) on this question. Just very little being published!
What I mean is, Obama and McCain campaigns are both doing extensive research, and that includes public opinion sampling for sure.
466. I thought Nick was very on the ball in realising that his future wife did not like the parellel! It is a good sign he recogised this and obviously by the fact he did proves his marrage was right!
Sometimes i think people can be a bit OTT on certain posters!
469
Incidentally Guido has another take on the ICM poll, apparently the sample was 101%……..
http://www.order-order.com/
470- Without a doubt!
468. Remember: hardly any of new net jobs since 1997:
Is that not because of European and more importantly non-EU migration?
In general i agree with you - but i think it is a bit OTT to level it at Nick! Sure he may have voted for it but it was more than likely a whipped vote. His fate will be decided by the people at a GE, with all factors given due weighting.
474
Come on Martin.. MP’s do not have to obey a whipped vote.
Surprised to see no comment on the link that Marcia posted @322 on interesting tax planning from Merrill Lynch?
460. Sorry Rod. I’m not taking any lessons from a self-obsessed conspiracy theorist, holocaust denier and Churchill hater. You often quote tenuous sources to back up your spurious claims.
You fancy yourself as an all-seeing “revisionist” able to see the errors in history where others cannot and believe yourself superior in intelligence to the rest of us in this respect as well.
I expect there is some quote somewhere to which you attribute this “fact”. Maybe, like many great artists, Elgar did grow to dislike this work - appropriated as it was by the general public like many popular “hits” are today. Didn’t help that his wife died in 1920 either, making him even more withdrawn. There are many groups, composers and artists who hate playing the publics “favourite” song over-and-over again… it’s tiresome and grows into something over which they have no control.
And he actually cooperated on the words with A.C. Benson to mark the coronation of Edward VII in 1910. So you’re wrong about that too.
Anyway, I’m off to bed…
Best. Thread. Ever. (ish)
Especially good to see Jan from Norway back again.
Rumours (Drudge) indicate Barack might announce tomorrow, so I am going to pin my colours to three masts in order.
1) Mark Warner
2) Evan Bayh
3) Tim Kaine
However, I will still be claiming kudos if Richardson gets the nod, having made a gentleman’s bet with a friend from New Mexico in 2000 that he would one day be VP.
Clarke, Bloomberg or Sebelius, I am green, but not by much.
If it is Clinton, Biden, Kerry, Nunn, Reed, Dodd, Edwards (Chet, not John) or (God forbid) Veneman, then I will never bet on the VP race ever again.
PS Nowt wrong in betting on next Pope - just remember that some of th blokes voting will be playing the market as well!
Interview in only a few hours, so off to bed. Night all.
475. Well they are in deep trouble if they don’t!
Whips are b’stards with MP’s - it’s easy to say you would not follow ‘their guidence’ as a non MP but without joking they have the whip hand!
Nick will face the voters in thr next year or so, I don’t see much milage in castigating him persenally for genral legislation - he will be jugded on that next time.
457- But if you love your country, might you not be thought of as a nationalist? Most socialists would be horrified at the possibility of being thought of as nationalistic socialists, national socialists, nat socs, na zi, …
So better to hate your country and avoid any appearance of impropriety.
478- I don’t know when you’re leaving for Denver, Morus, but godspeed. Be sure to wave from the plane when you’re flying over New York!
479 Martin… tell that to the 30-50 Labour MP’s who constantly rebel…. and its not general legislation either….. the EU legislation is absolutely critical to the path the Country will take. Thats why the failure to keep the referendum promise was a disgrace.
anyway
I’m off to bed too……..
478- I’ll say 1) Bayh, 2) Warner, 3) Richardson, 4) Kaine, … 1078) Biden, and … 15,009,905) Clinton
482. True, but were they members of the “payroll vote”.
I’m not a Labour apoligist but i think some of the EU stuff would have materialised anyway! The LD’s are as much to blame as Labour! Indeed i think the LD’s swung the vote in recent years!
Indeed, i would like to see a Tory Maj. at the next election - But one should look at Nick’s record objectively even if you do not agree with his votes - No point in being nasty about it!
In terms of Nick his support for socialism, even in his personal circumstances is more interesting than his recent voting record! He obvioulsly wants to go left but is restricted by the leadership! In some senses Nick’s views are more interesting than the Brown leadership as they reflect what he has encountered!
477. Notwithstanding your limp insults and desperate clinging to “groupthink”, facts are facts.
Coronation Ode does not contain the words that we know as “Land of Hope and Glory.” These were added, without the composer’s permission, years later in 1914, amid an orgy of jingoism at the outbreak of the First World War….
Elgar was horrified.
If you want to understand Elgar’s real view of war, listen to his Cello Concerto…
Here’s the online Drudge poll for Obama’s VP:
{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}}WHO WILL BE OBAMA’S VP?
Bayh 12% 3,535
Biden 24% 7,055
Clinton 10% 2,940
Kaine 6% 1,837
Kerry 7% 2,060
Nunn 3% 1,016
Wildcard 38% 11,278
So I guess it’s either Robert J. Wildcard (D-CA) or Joe Biden (D-DE)…
Very strange.
485.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=L5C99JyP2ns
‘Hi! to Martin Day;I hope your job-serach is starting to bear fruit!
One point I must state,which would be agreed across the spectrum:
(a)The Blair-Brown govt of 1997 to date has NOT BEEN socialist:a huge undertow of watered-down Thacherism is what got middle-class southerners to vote them in in the first place!
I would carry on that society demands instant gratification,’Now!’-the mobile-phone,spolilt-brat,’I want it NOW’ is here.regrattably it will only get worse.(Imagine 15-20 years down the line when those little sh1ts breed like f***ing rabbits-and they will,mark my words)
I more or less concede DC will win the next GE-with the caveat it will be MUCH closer than a lot on this site predict.I accept it,in view that Tory-leaning chums regard the worst mistake of the 1979-97 govt to win a fourth term-in other words,THREE terms seems a good palce to:
(a)(Hopefully:lol:Not lose too badly
(b)Let the new Tory PM f*** up like no tomorrow
(c)Reap the electoral reward c.2014/5 (assuming he lasts that long :lol:)
Syanora!!!
Morus, a word to the wise. Have a good time in Denver but be sure to behave yourself or you might end up in Denver’s answer to Guantanamo Bay, it’s own special detention center custom-designed for convention troublemakers, a place that has been a storage warehouse for years:
http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=97741&catid=188
Stop angling for the top job, David Miliband’s followers are told
“Meanwhile the veteran Labour MP Austin Mitchell said that Labour was “stumbling towards defeat”. “Indeed, we already display too many of the symptoms of a government at the end of its tether: the bickering, the declining enthusiasm, the shuffling positioning and repositioning of leadership contenders, along with escapist dreams about a period in opposition in order to get our heads straight,” he wrote on the Compass website.
“If all this builds up into a death wish, it won’t just be fatal for Labour, but for an economy which needs rebalancing towards investment and production. It would signify a major step backward because, although the Conservatives haven’t yet noticed, the national mood is moving back to favour regulation, public services and spending, state intervention and moving away from Thatcherism and failed market ideologies.
“This is why Gordon Brown, the prudent Presbyterian on his miserable British holiday in his respectable suit, is also in the last chance saloon.””
A few inconsistencies there.
Thanks for the generous defence, Martin. I’m probably more pro-EU than most PLP members, though - it wasn’t the whips dragging me through the lobbies, just a personal belief that Britain is best off in today’s world with shared sovereignity in a larger partnership.
The point about socialism is maybe more interesting - I’ve always been quite open with my voters that I would like Labour to be as left-wing as I think they might with persuasive argument accept. For instance, I argue for the UN target of 0.7% of GDP on foreign aid, which they will just about go along with, while not concealing that I personally would like it to be more like 1%. Many voters quite like frankness even if they totally disagree (my sneaking liking for McCain comes from his similar refusal to ingratiate himself beyond a certain point).
488. Thank you - Just waiting for the job search to bear real fruit!
They are terribly slow at making decisions! You can look at it two ways! Either not interested or looking for somebody better! Today has been not good as i have applied for about 7 jobs but they are gauging others and seeing how qualified i am!
I’m playing a long game now! What worries me is what i might be missing out on! I knew a lovelly lady who might find a better prospect in the near future. Like Cameron at his wedding many tears have been shed; because she is the one!
491. Thanks Nick for the interesting post!
Socialism - whilst i don’t agree with the ideological or pratical policies it might provide - I encourage the advocation of an alternative = Even if i disagree with it!
I still think Socialism has a vibrant hub that it could attract directly in the UK, but think the way it hs been presented in the recent past will not attract possible voters!
I’m going to bed now - cos i think i should!
477. For the record Edward VII’s coronation was in 1902 (he became King in 1901). He died in 1910.
I don’t know anything about the music!
472. MTF: apparently the sample was 101%
Rounding errors.
Dreadful news for Miliband from the Guardian article:
Voters believe Brown to be [...] more likely to tell the truth than Miliband.
403. Why are you suspicious? The Olympic victory parade in 2004 was also in October, IIRC. I went to Trafalgar Square and saw the gorgeous Amir Khan and booed Paula Radcliffe.
497 - That’s sick.
How many other people do you go around and boo because they get ill? Do you go around hospitals insulting patients? Go around hospices and laugh at the residents?
I doubt you’ve ever done anything anywhere near what she’s done, being a non-entity, instead, with a vicious jealousy of others and rather questionable proclivities.
453. q.v. Juche and “On Having A Correct Understanding Of Nationalism” by Kim Jong Il
498. I didn’t boo her “because she was ill”. I booed her because she wimped out of finishing the 10,000m race for no good reason after she had already wimped out of finishing the marathon.
What on Earth do you mean when you say that I have a “vicious jealousy of others”? I don’t feel jealous of anybody, let alone “viciously”. And what are “questionable proclivities”???
500 - Exactly, you’re a disgrace, you did exactly what I said. I don’t see any point in exchanging views with you.
In western Alaska and Hawaii, it’s still 4:30 in the morning so theoretically “today” could still be “VEEP day” if Obama makes an announcement late in the evening.
502. In western Alaska and Hawaii, it’s still 4:30 in the
morningafternoon so theoretically “today” could still be “VEEP day” if Obama makes an announcement late in the evening.501. If misquoting me and making false accusations against me is the best you can do then I am happy to not exchange views with you. Everybody else reading this will notice that you have not even attempted to explain what you meant by “questionable proclivities” or “vicious jealousy”.
Incidentally, lots of other people booed her as well as me.
504 - You’ve made the first obvious by booing someone who failed through illness and has done more than you ever will (booing is always vicious, it can be nothing else) and the second by comments in your past postings, I’ll leave it to others to make their own decisions on that.
As for others, there are a lot of idiots in the world who thrive on petty jealousy, force of numbers just makes them more pathetic.
The loony pose isn’t always sufficient to hide behind.
With that, goodnight.
505. So what if Paula Radcliffe has “done more than I ever will”? I have never had any desire to run a marathon, let alone try to break the world record. I don’t suppose she’s ever thought about standing for parliament, but I’m not pretending that makes me superior over her. But in any case, she didn’t “fail through illness” in the 10,000metres, she didn’t bother to finish the last 3,000m because she couldn’t be bothered. It was only the marathon where she was ill. Booing is merely a manifestation of free speech, as any politician will know. I still have no idea why you think I am “jealous” of anyone.
You have of course contradicted what you said in 501.
Following today’s Guardian poll, I project:
Con 384 (+176)
Lab 194 (-152)
LD 34 (-33)
SNP 12 (+6)
PC 5 (+3)
Oth 21 (nc)
Con majority 118
Any requests for individual seat projections, I’m willing to offer them (within reason - a list of 632 seat projections would make a rather long post!)
(NB: Methodology still subject to review, especially in Scotland)
I posted the wrong link @347. (that was yet another Beethoven version)
The BBC documentary series (IIRC about 1980 called “The British in Germany”) used this masterpiece…
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Idb0HSnxsy4
Give her a round of applause!
Mike -
There’s a link to a new post at the top of the page, but it’s 404ing.
Is it me, or is it the system?
509. What does “404ing” mean?
510.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_404
Blogs are full of a story that Obama’s VP pick has leaked via an email snafu and that it is Evan Bayh
http://act-blog.co.nr/
Treat with caution however, as some think it could be a hoax.
Biden or Bayh, Biden or Bayh, Biden or Bayh. Been saying so for weeks and weeks and weeks. It’s Obama’s race to lose, so of course he will pick conservatively. Most people who have been reading the runes and looking for confirmation from people asked by the vetters- rather than magazine profiles- would have come to this conclusion.
All the buzz says that it is Biden:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/208939.php
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/08/18/biden-yeah-that-works.aspx