Is this the next leader of Scottish Labour?
August 21st, 2008
Henry G Manson says the 11/4 on Cathy is a good value bet
Cathy Jamieson is the acting Scottish Labour Leader following the resignation of Wendy Alexander. She was the party’s Deputy Leader before this contest and has previously been Minster for Justice and for Children. As the election race progresses her rivals for the top post, Iain Gray and Andy Kerr, risk being outshone by this feisty woman with a canny eye for a headline .
The nominations from the constituent parts of the party suggest Gray is currently ahead (http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/candidates), but Jamieson is snapping at his heels and should be vying for favouritism. Kerr started the betting as the early favourite but has steadily drifted out since then. Just like Peter Hain in last year’s Deputy Leadership, I fear he is becoming politically outflanked by more organised politicians with much more motivated support. I now think he’ll get the least number of first preferences of the three and will fall at the first hurdle. This turns the contest on its head. How his supporters will split their second preferences across the college is anyone’s guess.
Let’s look at the numbers so far. Gray has stacked up an impressive number of parliamentary nominations (27) to Jamieson’s (17) and Kerr’s (13). But this is only one third of the contest and I think he’s a touch too short a price as a result. This is a similar electoral college to last year’s Deputy contest with a third weighting of the votes of MSPs/MPs, party members and affiliated trade union levy-payers. If Jamieson can finish second in the parliamentary section of the college, she could romp away with a huge vote in the affiliates section and then beat Gray well in the members’ section too.
Iain Gray has moved to the odds on favourite in the last fortnight since he has bagged big trade union endorsements from the GMB and Unite. The Unite decision has all the hallmarks of a Charlie Whelan intervention from London to support Gordon Brown’s favoured candidate. On the surface this puts him in a strong position. However somewhat crucially I have been informed that unlike other contests these two unions have no plans to spend significant sums in promoting Gray to their members. This will substantially limit the impact their backing could have had and I think the market has seriously over-reacted to this endorsement.
Where the union executive decisions took place within Scotland, such as with the powerful union Unison, they have gone for Jamieson whose politics are closest to their rank and file. That support on the ground will be priceless. As a Labour and Cooperative MSP she can also expect to receive the support of a lot of co-operators in the ‘affiliate section’, many of whom will be able to vote again for her the party members’ section at a higher rate than trade unionists typically do.
The relatively low membership of the Scottish CLPs will mean that those activists that do vote will hold considerably more sway within the voting college than in previous national contests.
Instead it is likely to be the campaign that can motivate its supportive members that tips the result. What has surprised me a little is that as the campaign has developed Jamieson has been by far the best candidate at putting forward substantial eye-catching policy ideas to do this. She is supporting a not-for-profit rail franchise, expansion of student bursaries, measures against fuel poverty and reform of council tax. Gray and Kerr each have their pet policies (a literacy specialist for every school or a cabinet post for housing) but they’re meagre offerings to win back support for Labour and will frankly not give Salmond any sleepless nights. I think many members could conclude the same when contemplating filling in their ballot papers. Jamieson may also benefit from the disproportionate number of transfers women in internal Labour contests appear to receive.
At the very start of the contest I thought this was Andy Kerr’s to lose, but this is quickly turning into a bit of a Left v Right shoot-out. Iain Gray may have the backing of Gordon Brown’s machine, but Cathy Jamieson has the experience, credentials and the campaign to pip him in the manner of Harman versus Johnson. On current form Jamieson is overpriced to be elected next Scottish Labour leader on September 13th and is my value pick.
The latest odds with Ladbrokes are: Gray 2/3, Jamieson 11/4, Kerr 3/1.
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2/3? lol.
No me.
The article should have said ‘Gray got no Glasgow nominations’ rather than Kerr. Could you amend Morus? Thanks.
William Hills prices for the Scottish leadership contest are
Gray 8/11, Kerr 5/2 and Jamieson 3/1.
Does it make any difference? Salmon and SNP will leave any new labour leader out in the cold.
………..but as far as betting goes I’ve put £20 on the lass.
Once bitten twice shy with a female leader ?
400 from previous thread- The article does demonstrate that Obama, and the Democratic Party in general (I’m not sure who to actually credit), did come up with a good procedure to broker a modification to the abortion plank in the Democratic Party platform. While the substance does not appear to have changed since any desired reduction in the number of abortions is NOT to be accomplished by any actual restrictions on abortion itself, it does show that Obama is a clever politician by changing the language used to convey the message (I want to reduce the number of abortions, and here’s how I’d do it). As the article concludes, it remains to be seen if he has any real desire to reduce the number of abortions (as the article notes, Obama never talks about the issue unless he’s asked) or whether he would follow through with any actual legislation as President.
Again, this does not represent compromise on the issue of legalized abortion; it is merely a half-hearted expressed desire to do other things that might have the salutary effect of reducing overall numbers of abortions taking place.
Thanks Henry, I’m on for a modest tenner. You mentioned this morning that we might see the Dem VP nominee being announced “within the hour” - was this a guess or do you still think it’s likely later today?
Interesting piece on the labour leadership - should imagine it is a job no-one really wants! A case of managing decline!
From the previous thread on Eastleigh: I think this is interesting
Vote LibDem get a Tory
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/8/11/94357/5892
Yellow Submarine; What problems with the Tory PPC in Eastleigh?
I’ve been told by someone with good connections that it was most likely to be revealed at 8am DC time today or tomorrow which I think translates to 1pm our time. I thought today would be better rather than tomorrow. I think they’re stringing it out too long to be honest.
400 from previous thread- To follow up on this issue, do you believe that this abortion plank compromise is a harbinger of things to come in an Obama administration, where he would assemble majority Democrats with minority Republicans (whose votes will be unnecessary to pass legislation) in order to reach compromises that all can celebrate? Brokering a compromise between far-left to center-left in a party platform is a far cry from bridging the enormous divides ranging from left to right.
11. That was for you Peter at 9.
Brown the butt of a Karzai joke! Brown thought it a real stinker!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/2596020/Gordon-Brown-endures-leadership-joke-in-Afghanistan.html
There isn’t going to be an Obama administration, Stars and Stripes, and your repeatedly saying otherwise is just a false-flag operation to lull us all into a false sense of security.
7 - Maybe people will think like that. But it’s a bit sad - nobody would say anything similar about male leaders.
Here’s an article dispelling another myth we’ve been hearing here at PB: that McCain has been massively outspending Obama in advertising, which would account for how McCain has been making a comeback. According to actual figures, Obama spent more on advertising in July than the total of McCain’s entire campaign expenditures for the same period:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=auUmkmB4O6YE
16. Yes, Labour used to say it alot about Thatcher!
@12:
There is no compromise between those who want state-supported infanticide and those that don’t. You can’t compromise-kill a human child.
Any such ‘compromise’ abortion plank will be shown to be as hollow and worthless as the man who’s standing on it.
15- I’m busted! You have to wake up pretty early in the morning to outfox BannedHorse…
19- As I suggested, the new Democratic position on abortion is a lot of window dressing lacking substance, but clearly designed to bamboozle a certain slice of the electorate that, according to the article, Obama believes he can eat into: evangelical Christians.
20, your own post 17 is one of many that proves my point.
You talk the talk for Obama, credit is due, but your every molecule walks the walk for McCain.
19 — an embryo or foetus isn’t a child.
@21:
So, essentially, Obama’s gambling that Christians are thick?
I wonder if he’s done polling?
Didn’t eastleigh Tories select very late in what on paper is a Hyper Marginal ?
@22:
Hey, if sophistry and category errors make it easier to allay your conscience in supporting infanticide, that’s your bag.
I’m not here to make you feel better about yourself.
23 — Young-Earth Creationists certainly are.
23 - Well they helped to elect Bush didn’t they?
21. That’s why his shunning of his poor half - brother is so important IMO. It shows he has a callous disregard for the vulnerable. Bet younger Bro didn’t get into some Ivy League university and a gilded lifestyle.
22 - Isn’t the crux of the argument on abortion precisely to do with that point. Pro-abortioners say that a foetus is not a child and anti-abortioners say that it is.
25, I’m not here to force women to resort to coat-hangers either.
Typical authoritarian attitude — ban something and you’ll stop it, just like that. Worked a wonder with homosexuals, didn’t it?
23- Well, there is one other motive, and it might be an even bigger one. Even if not one evangelical votes for Obama, he will have achieved a lot if efforts like this make him appear as if he is willing to listen, compromise, and work with others, since these are the exact qualities that appeal to centrists who may be afraid that he is an intransigent unrepentant leftist. This is not unlike the concept of Republican outreach to blacks; blacks are the last people who will be pursuaded to vote Republican, but conspicuous outreach efforts can persuade moderates that the Republicans aren’t the right-wing meanies they are often portrayed as.
24. Well if we believe what Labour are saying about elections I don’t think it is too late. Far from it! Two years is plenty of time!
@30:
Who mentioned banning anything?
I’m in favour of allowing post partem abortions up to two years after birth.
12. I think it is a harbringer of things to come in an Obama administration as it demonstrates a complexity of thinking and a belief that two supposedly irreconcilable sides do share common ground.
I also think that simply because Obama will be able to govern with a democratic Senate and Congress does not mean he will abandon this attitude. Things like the 50-State strategy make me think that he wants to lay groundwork for future democratic party candidates. It also makes me think that he wants his policies to outlast him and not be simply overturned by the next republican president, for that to happen Obama will need widespread support outside Washington as well as within.
I know little about the main characters in Scottish politics so I looked at the CVs of these three and any references to them on the internet. None seem distinguished for their intellect, past careers or achievements in office. I could see them on a county council but not running a country. Does Scottish Labour send their good people to Westminster and ignore Holyrood? Donald Dewar must be turning in his grave. No wonder Salmond is laughing all the way to independence.
22- You completely miss the point, apparently blinded as you are by your own partisanship. Follow this:
1) I would vote for McCain over Obama, no question.
2) I think Obama will win the election.
I’m separating my desired outcome from what I believe to be the actual outcome. Period.
@34:
Oh good, he’s a f*cking Blairite?
Ugh.
On thread - interesting piece - I probably got more info from this than I have from every MSM article I have seen to date.
Is it right that MPs vote in the same section of the electoral college as MSPs? That gives them quite a bit of weight in this contest, when they dont work alongisde alongside the person they are electing. Who is that helpful to? Presumably the person backed by the ‘machine’ as it were.
Question — shouldn’t every politician opposed to abortion automatically be calling for the closure of all fertility clinics, given that IVF often results in surplus embryos discarded in the laboratory?
If any of you were wondering where that supreme prat “Dirty European Socialist” disappeared to, he appears to be trolling waters afresh, under the name “geopoliticalheros”:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/jonathan_isaby/blog/2008/08/20/labour_seeks_a_candidate_for_glenrothes
29. I’ve never understood why left-wingers have such a huge problem with the state killing the guilty (e.g. mass murderers) but have no problem with the state sanctioning the killing of the innocent (e.g. unborn children).
This inconsistency has been compounded by the recent enthusiasm of many on the left for bombing civilians in places like Serbia and Iraq.
Thanks for the thread Henry, very informative. I remember seeing Cathy on QT. She didn’t come across very well but then she was defending 42 days. I think she’s well worth a bet based on your reasoning.
Tories select Candidate for Sheffield Hallam called David Cameron!
Candidate has changed his name by deed poll:
http://www.hot.ee/mmarti/Galerii_Thumbnails/devil-1-310.jpg
Take two countries -
1) One parliament’s knowledgeable and non-partisan debate on abortion and limits on, what is seen by people, as a minority issue affecting few votes.
2) Another’s pitched battles based on what god wants and revolving around how each side is evil on an issue which many want to see as the defining one of the election.
Makes you proud to be British.
S&S, I put it to you that you do not in fact believe Obama will win at all.
40. I think he’s ill. Really.
34- It sounds like you see Obama as the first George Washington since, well, George Washington. We shall see.
By the way, the pro-choice and pro-life forces in the Democratic Party have managed to reconcile their differences within the Democratic Party platform process every four years, so I’m not sure what’s so unprecedented about the tweaking of language we saw this year.
And if the Obama administration really does make major efforts to reach out to Republicans substantively, not merely through hollow gestures, he will have howling mad Democratic House and Senate majorities to contend with, which would be quite a spectacle by itself.
I suppose it’s just possible that each of the three sections of the electoral college will be won by a different candidate - ie. the trade union section by Jamieson, the parliamentary section by Gray, and the members’ section by Kerr. Would that be the first time that’s happened in any Labour race? More to the point, if it does happen they might as well have just rolled a dice to choose the leader, because the winner will have been decided by the entirely arbitrary formula for weighting the votes.
35. Does Scottish Labour send their good people to Westminster and ignore Holyrood?
Crikey i hope not that would mean Scottish Labour are completly talentless……………………………
41 - You surely appreciate that the abortion and capital punishment debates involve such different ethical and practical considerations that that sort of glib comment is ludicrous. I can respect well thought out and expressed opinions on both sides of both debates. But I don’t respect your opinion at all.
3 -done
A foetus is “innocent” only in the sense that a cabbage is.
I’ve never understood why the right is big on small government but then declares itself custodians of adult women’s bodies.
45- What would I be saying if I thought Obama really was going to win, in your version of reality?
44. Osborne was the only Tory to vote against the proposals to reduce the time limits for abortion, so I think it has become a partisan issue, whether we like it or not. We are a less religious country, which accounts for the difference in the debate I think.
@50:
Yes, that’s another questionable refrain that lefties frequently use to allay their guilt.
And the left have much guilt to allay.
35. I think Scottish politics has a habit of producing very grey politicians. To the extent that they’ve even named one of the candidates Gray. This was all very well and good for when we in power and steady-as-she goes will do. But to win back votes needs a totally different set of political skills - ideas, media-savviness and guts. I’ll declare an interest in being an Andy Kerr fan, but I’ve really come to respect and admire how Cathy has been making the running. Kerr’s campaign has looked quite lethargic and he’s not produced any good reasons to vote for him over his rivals.
38. Yes MPs and MEPs vote in section 1 alongside MSPs. Only MSPs got to nominate, the others could provide ’supportive nominations’ alongside CLPs. There is a chance that some of the parliamentary votes don’t match their nominations - that happened a little bit with the national deputy leadership contest. If anything this could help Jamieson as the new ’stop-Gray’ candidate.
49 Can’t fault your conclusion, Martin
48 - in last year’s deputy leadership race, the 3 sections were won by three different candidates in the first round IIRC. I also think that Harman won in the final round whilst being ahead of Alan Johnson only amongst members (she was ever so slightly behind Johnson among unionists, and well behind among MPs).
Arbitary? Yep. Amusingly quaint? Yep. And people wonder why Team Broon didnt want to have a contested leadership election!
47. I’d like to think that Democrats and Republicans have more in common than you make out, but perhaps I’m being naive.
54. John Bercow?
The all party Pro-Life group is led by a Labour MP.
52. And I don’t understand how pro-choice people can be so dismissive of the questions surrounding a child in the womb. The fundamentalism of the feminist claim to the right to determine this question without reference to 50% of the human race seems at least as objectionable as the fundamentalism of the other side.
50. Your huffing and puffing hasn’t enlightened me at all, I’m afraid.
The last time I heard a debate on capital punishment, the left-wing guest said ‘the state has no right to take life’. This seemed a fairly fundamental ethical point, yet it clearly isn’t so if abortion and killing civilians in wars are acceptable.
I’m happy to support all three things as necessary evils, with appropriate restrictions in each case. I can’t understand why one of the three should be considered totally beyond the pale but not the others.
@52:
Yes, outlawing one human killing another? Who does the state think it is?
FOR SHAME.
54 - How many MPs (not just tories) would vote for something which would be akin to repealing Roe/Wade? How many US politicians would do the same?
60. Only 50% of the human race are in possession of a womb and the ability to bear a child. A woman can of course ask whomever she wants for advice but over her own body she is sovereign. I’m not debating this issue further than that.
64. So you would support abortion right up to full-term, then?
13 Thanks Henry. I’m surprised to see that Paddy Power are pricing odds against Brown’s departure during the remainder of 2008 at a paltry even money, when really the price should be several times that, IMHO. This certainly results in their 10/3 price against him leaving anytime during 2009 as representing real value and far, far better odds than Betfair’s quarterly offerings for 2009. Even PP’s 2010 longstop bet is odds against at 5/4 and therefore a possible “saver” were he to cling on throughout next year. Unless, of course, there’s still someone out there who thinks he’ll survive beyond 2010, in which case very generous odds are available, especially for you.
Re: Henry’s earlier suggestion on Tom Daschle being named as Dem VP (now 33/1 BTW), his name doesn’t even appear on Betfair’s long list of candidates, which doesn’t of course mean he won’t get picked - but it does highlight the attraction of laying as opposed to backing on these enormous fields.
Speaking of Betfair, despite my beef yesterday, even now, they have yet to offer a market on either the next Scottish Labour Leader or the winning party at the forthcoming Glenrothes by-election.
@64:
That’s a remarkable bit of leftie tantrum-throwing.
“I have no argument, so I’m not going to argue. Women have minges and therefore should be allowed to murder whomsoever they see fit. END OF!”
Great work, G.
I have to say Henry, this is a really excellent piece - I knew next to nothing about this contest before I read it, and you’ve given us a fantastic and detailed overview. Many thanks.
59. You’re right, there were a few. The talk was at the time that he and a few others had voted that way to reduce the impression it was patisan, but I misremembered the details.
Here’s the mail:
“Francis Maude, a prominent “moderniser”, and Nick Herbert, who is openly gay, were the only other members of the Conservative shadow Cabinet to back the Government on the issue.
Mr Cameron voted in favour because the issue of fatherhood goes to the heart of his message that Britain is in the grip of social breakdown.
He also voted in support of unsuccessful attempts to bring the abortion limit down from 24 weeks to 22 and 20 weeks.
Mr Osborne’s votes put him out of step with the vast majority of Tory MPs.
In all, 92 per cent of them voted to prevent the Government ending a requirement for fertility clinics to consider a baby’s need for a father when assessing women for treatment. “
O/T - Anyone see value in odds of 10-1 (Paddy Power) for Jack Straw to be next Chancellor of the Exchequer? It occurred to me that there are two plausible routes by which this might happen:
- Darling goes or is pushed by Brown, and Brown brings in Straw as an experienced politician to handle the economy ‘in difficult times’
- Brown goes, someone other than Straw gets to be next PM, and appoints Straw as Chancellor for similar reasons.
Or, to put it another way, do we think Alastair Darling will survive until the next election, and if not, who would replace him?
59- The problem is that in the endless titanic battle of Republicans vs. Democrats, both sides so completely demonize and savage each other that neither side has any respect for or trust in the other. Obama has not risen above this process as some sort of post-partisan George Washington figure, although some of his devoted left-wing followers still cling to the hope that he can claim this mantle (although I’m sure they would be outraged if he really ended up governing from the center and made substantial concessions to the right!). The triumphant Democrats will have no desire to give the Republicans anything; quite the contrary, they will roll full-steam ahead with their own Democratic agenda and intoxicated by an unfettered power they haven’t enjoyed for fifteen years.
65 - There is a scientific debate about when the best limit is but if anyone resorts to religion as their reasoning then the debate is not one worth having.
Are we talking about Nova Scotia, or some distant planet…?
Off-too sleep: web-talk later!
65. No.
52 - Are you suggesting that abortions should be carried out up until term? I think that in terms of abortion there has to be a limit beyond which you consider that what is in the womb is more than the sum of its parts. I think that it is a very fine judgment between the current limit and a few weeks lower. I also think that the time limit argument should be really separated from arguments over whether abortion is being used as post-coital birth control.
@65:
Infanticide should be legal until 18 months to two years after birth. It’s logically consistent, and has numerous sociological advantages over the current regime.
41. “I’ve never understood why left-wingers have such a huge problem with the state killing the guilty (e.g. mass murderers) but have no problem with the state sanctioning the killing of the innocent (e.g. unborn children).”
I’m a left-winger who’s inclined to be opposed to abortion, but there’s a huge difference between the state ‘allowing’ something to happen (ie. not prosecuting for abortion) and carrying out the action itself (capital punishment).
The state - as far as I’m aware - does not have a stance about whether abortion is desirable or undesirable. The point too many pro-life campaigners miss is that you can’t actually abolish abortion by means of legislation. You can have the techincal satisfaction of sending doctors to jail for it, but the practice will continue in huge numbers as it always has done. The true aim for pro-lifers should be to find rather more practical ways to bring the abortion rate down, and perhaps in the political sphere the aim should be to make it a matter of public policy to do so.
64 “I’m not debating this issue”
The leftie/Brown mantra - repeat until dead
60 - Surely having limits on abortion (around 5 months) is an acceptance that there is a balance to be struck? The logic of the fundamentalist position would be abortion to term - a case which I have heard argued, but rarely and without widespread support.
As it is, you choose a date which balances the right of women to control what happens to their own bodies bearing in mind the ethical questions as they see fit with the (developing) right of a foetus as it moves towards viability outside the womb. You also consider the practical likelihod of dangerous unlawful abortions. There is no comfortable or easy compromise there but compromise it is.
If you mean by the other 50% the fathers of the unborn, I just do not see how it is workable to force a woman to go to term because her partner refuses to consent to an abortion. It is simply unconscionable. It is a tragedy when a prospective father loses a child that he was willing to care for due to the prospective mother’s decision, but I do not see there is really an alternative that works.
72. No-one mentioned religion, as far as I am aware. You seem determined to stick the Christian fundamentalist loony tag on everyone you think might not share your adulation for Mr.Obama.
63. Indeed, far fewer would in this country, I didn’t deny that. I think the explanation is that we are a less religious country. However, there is a divide between left and right on the issue. If the Tories get a big majority, I would expect to see the issue emerge once more.
66. I agree about Brown not going this year. I’ve got him at 20/1 for a 2008 exit from April, but I think the timescale is far too tight. He could be most vulnerable after the June 2009 euro elections if Labour get badly beaten. That would mean a leadership election over the summer, new leader unveiled at party conference and a ten month run-in until a 2010 election under hopefully better economic circumstances.
77- Of course, you can’t abolish any wrongful act, abortion or anything else, by legislation. By that reasoning, we should flush the whole criminal code.
74. If it’s ‘no’ then you don’t actually believe your previous sweeping statement about women being ’sovereign’ over their own bodies. You accept there must be limitations to that. It’s this kind of wild inconsistency that I am criticising.
68 Yes, a very good piece, many thanks Henry. Having read it again, I’ve taken advantage of Wm Hill’s slightly better odds and upped my ante to £25!
67. I’m not debating this issue because it’s never a worthwhile debate. It simply consists of each side demonising the other side and throwing around words like murder.
80 - This is about McCain and the problem that he has with his party you know, religion is at the heart of the support he needs.
If you think that the US does not see abortion through religious eyes then you are beyond help.
72. There isn’t a scientific debate about the best time limit for abortions. There is a moral debate. Science can not answer the moral question.
76. You’ve been reading Singer? Are you joking?
@86:
If the cap fits…
I think my position is a more useful compromise than Obama’s anyway. But, unlike him, I’m not a vacuous husk of political air.
88 - I had to check to make sure I hadn’t written that post!
86 - I think it is a worthwhile debate, what it isn’t is easy. It is an emotive subject and I think people can be forgiven for going a little over the top sometimes. But not to engage in the debate is a tad silly.
61 - Just a few differences between the capital punishment and abortion debate:
1. There is no moral debate over whether a criminal is in fact a fully-fledged human being. You may think that a 20 week old feotus is also a human being in exactly the same sense as a grown man - but a lot of people don’t, there are questions of degree and there’s a legitimate debate.
2. There is an issue over backstreet abortions which doesn’t apply to executions.
3. Abortion raises issues over control over the mother’s body and whether the mother might be best placed to make the moral judgements up to a point.
4. There are various practical reasons why execution might not be a good idea (miscarriages of justice, it might encourage killing of witnesses etc) which do not apply to abortion.
So you can take either position on either debate, but you can’t draw up some kind of bogus equivalence between the debates - it is intellectually vacuous.
82 - It has gone quiet for a couple of weeks, but there’s nothing to say it wont flare up again with conference coming up and a by-election on the horizon. Do you really think your 2008 bet is a write off now?
Science informs the debate and morals cloud the issue. When is life life, that’s the crux of the matter, not whether people like the idea of it or not.
70 Richard - I think 10/1 for Straw becoming Chancellor would be excellent value were there a vacancy, indeed in such circumstances even half those odds would appear attractive. Unfortunately Tractors has just ruled out any prospect of a re-shuffle this autumn. Asuming we are to believe him (big if), then I’d hold onto your money if I were you.
56 Henry, thanks for the article. Do bright socialists in Scotland nowadays think that sitting in Holyrood is worth their time or do they want to get to Westminster as soon as possible? Donald Dewar chose Holyrood. I don’t think someone in the SNP would need to think twice. Perhaps you need to move to a culture where you make your name locally and then, and only then, move onto the national scene. That seems to happen in Germany.
83. “Of course, you can’t abolish any wrongful act, abortion or anything else, by legislation. By that reasoning, we should flush the whole criminal code.”
Of course, the more absolutist section of the anti-abortion side (which unfortunately seems to be most of them) insist that there is no distinction between abortion and murder. But there should be an absolutely obvious difference as far as the state and society is concerned - because any other potential ‘victim’ of an assault can, in theory at least, be physically protected by the state or by other individuals. Whether we like it or not, that is simply not the case for an unborn child - the expectant mother has absolute power over his/her destiny. If you deny the pregnant woman access to a safe and legal abortion, she can find other means, including the extreme option of taking her own life. That’s why, in the real world, the legal system has to make a distinction.
94 - Oh, f***cking hell - Please say you are joking…you are far too bright for that to be a genuine comment.
96. “Do bright socialists in Scotland nowadays think that sitting in Holyrood is worth their time or do they want to get to Westminster as soon as possible?”
Bright socialists in Scotland generally don’t join the Labour party.
@95:
I think the Clucking Fist wants a reshuffle, but he’s realised he can’t have one.
If he demotes any senior secretary, there’s a high risk of them going nuclear.
98 - I am totally serious, there are far too many people who ignore the science and resort to morality as their reasoning.
With capital punishment then there is a clear moral debate about whether it is right or not, with abortion, and I realise that this may be a minority opinion, I believe that the ultimate authority is what science tells us about when life begins.
What would you say are the moral issues which you consider as being more important than the science in this debate?
91 I agree, James, but this is hardly the ideal forum for this particular topic.
82 “He could be most vulnerable after the June 2009 euro elections if Labour get badly beaten.”
Henry - that being the case, how do you rate PP’s 10/3 for 2009, compared with their 5/4 for 2010?
102- Bringing it all full circle, what odds can I get on the next Scottish Labour leader being pro-life?
Anyway, I think we’ve proved that abortion is still a highly contentious topic in the uk!
103 PtP The same question to you, please.
103. I’d make it about 13/8 him going in 2009. I think I’ll be taking a bit of that 10/3 you picked out!
102 - Probably not, but then the intermaweb in general probably isn’t with posters’ penchant for irony, sarcasm and deliberate contrarianism!
@101:
I tend to I agree with Morus. This notion that SCIENCE has a special test you can do with chemicals and a stopwatch to find out whether an embryo is Officially Human or not seems to be lunacy of the highest order.
Goes a long way to explaining your Obamania as well.
104. “Bringing it all full circle, what odds can I get on the next Scottish Labour leader being pro-life?”
Sadly, that’s irrelevant, because the Scottish Parliament does not currenly control abortion law. Completely irrational, given that it controls virtually all other aspects of health and criminal justice policy, but hopefully that anomaly will be put right very soon.
92. If you are arguing that capital punishment must be completely ruled out on practical grounds and abortion in on largely practical grounds as well, then at least you are being consistent in your approach even if I might disagree with your conclusions.
My problem is with ruling out capital punishment on moral grounds but having no moral problem with killing unborn children for lifestyle reasons or bombing innocent civilians for foreign policy purposes. Which is what the left consistently does.
@110:
Given the large number of Catholic MSPs, I have a feeling that’s not an oversight by Labour, but deliberate.
101 - My point is that they are not two sides competing for superiority in answering the same question, and to think that they are is completely wrong-headed.
The question of ‘Should we allow abortion/capital punishment?’ is a moral question, because it asks ‘what should we do?’. Science can never answer that question, because science doesn’t give you an evaluative framework to answer questions of good/bad, better/worse, or should/shouldn’t.
Science informs those questions by providing (apparently) evaluatively neutral information - an embryo at x weeks has y features, 3/4 foetuses survive outside the womb at 24 weeks etc etc.
Consider it like a judge and an expert witness. The judge is an expert in law (the evaluative structure allowing you to interpret information), whereas the expert witness provides that information and ensures understanding.
The scientist can provide you with information (though even whether that can be neutral and not inclusive of bias or semantic distortion is uncertain). But even if everyone agreed on the science, we would be no further forward on the issue of how to respond to the difficult moral question of ‘what should we do?’ - that requires a coherent and shared moral evaluative structure, which Liberal society lacks, because of our heterogeny of rational traditions since the Enlightenment.
I don’t care about you position on abortion, but to say that this is a scientific question not a moral one is completely absurd.
109 - I’d rather science give its best answer than for the even more nebulous reasons of morality to hold sway. Not to say that they don’t belong in the debate but they should be secondary issues in my opinion.
I also realise that the moral police on either side of the debate have far too much invested in it to be able to do that.
I thought I was in opposition to Obama over this, I cant understand why your last comment is there at all in that case.
96. I think they do think it’s worth their time, but the politics of it all matters too. What will be quite dangerous for the party is if there’s a heavy drubbing in 2010 Westminster elections. If you were 35-40 and Cameron had just won a majority of 170 and was likely to be in power for 2-3 terms, the temptation would be to avoid over a decade of opposition and fight the SNP and be closer to your friends and family.
These debates over abortion just cover old ground. Rather than trying to force women to have children against their will, why not try to help them make a choice that avoids abortion. That would include prevention, of course, but also include help with disabled children and easier adoptions. The pros and antis in the debate might have some common ground.
@114:
Just out of interest, what question is it you’re expecting science to answer in the abortion brouhaha?
“Of course, the more absolutist section of the anti-abortion side (which unfortunately seems to be most of them) insist that there is no distinction between abortion and murder. But there should be an absolutely obvious difference as far as the state and society is concerned - because any other potential ‘victim’ of an assault can, in theory at least, be physically protected by the state or by other individuals. Whether we like it or not, that is simply not the case for an unborn child - the expectant mother has absolute power over his/her destiny. If you deny the pregnant woman access to a safe and legal abortion, she can find other means, including the extreme option of taking her own life. That’s why, in the real world, the legal system has to make a distinction.”
You said it, so I don’t have to.
102 - PtP might be right, and it might be advisable for us all to move onto less emotive arguments more closely related to political betting.
Gov. Kaine of Virginia, high-profile Obama VP finalist, ridicules McCain on national television as being unable to count:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/kaine-on-mccain.html
Ah yes, the Democrats, the party that’s just too nice to win elections! I wonder if Kaine, were he chosen for VP, would lead Obama’s unity and outreach efforts to the GOP.
106 PfP
I think 100/30 is good value, but I had £400 on 2009 when it was 9/2 with Hills. Even so I’m tempted to top up. I reckon it’s about a 2/1 shot.
112. Oh, it certainly was deliberate - as far as I remember, it was envisaged in the Constitutional Convention’s blueprint that abortion law would be devolved, but it was removed when Labour produced their White Paper in 1997. I believe Jack Straw may have had a dark hand in it. I don’t think it’s got anything to do with Catholic MSPs, though (there’s nothing like a majority in any case) - it was just the familiar centralising instinct that you couldn’t allow the Scottish Parliament to have power over a ’serious’ matter like abortion. Such things have to be left for the ‘grown-ups’ at Westminster.
@119:
But Obama started it, sir! Tell him off, not me.
113 - I think I see the confusion, I see the morality as informing a decision based on science, not as being something that you should ignore (with the debate as it is that isn’t even a possibility).
95,100: OK, but the converse question is: how stable is the current setup? We can consider three scenarios:
1. Brown stays the full course, and Darling also remains: Osborne will be next Chancellor
2. Brown stays the full course, Darling doesn’t: Whom would Brown choose as Chancellor, and who would accept the job? Conventional wisdom is Miliband or Ed Balls, but is this right?
3. Brown goes before the GE: Whom would his successor choose as Chancellor?
It seems to me that scenario 1 is reasonably reflected in the odds offered (George Osborne at 15-8), but the alternative scenarios aren’t.
Perhaps it requires too many contingencies, but 10-1 doesn’t look bad.
Obama speaking in Virginia now on Sky…
And for the record, I’m not opposed to the death penalty in all circumstances. For the most serious, mass-murdering attacks on liberal democracy by dangerous, unrepentant, charismatic fanatics — Timothy McVeigh, Osama bin Laden, Shoko Asahara — it may be the only option.
119 Well, I’ve had many a fascinating and heated argument on this Site, Morus, but this one seems bound to generate all heat and no light - and it will never, ever be relevant to political betting.
120- The nuanced intellectual compromiser and unifier Obama also piles on in his own latest ad, which manages to jab McCain both over his stumble on how many houses he owns and the fact that he is indeed rich:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpmFd25tRqo
Surely, if it was devolved and Scotland took say a more restrictive approach women would just come south for an abortion. The same happens in ireland.
Now I see why Obama shouldn’t choose Biden:
“The tape, which was made available by C-SPAN in response to a reporter’s request, showed a testy exchange in response to a question about his law school record from a man identified only as ”Frank.” Mr. Biden looked at his questioner and said: ”I think I have a much higher I.Q. than you do.”
He then went on to say that he ”went to law school on a full academic scholarship - the only one in my class to have a full academic scholarship,” Mr. Biden said. He also said that he ”ended up in the top half” of his class and won a prize in an international moot court competition. In college, Mr. Biden said in the appearance, he was ”the outstanding student in the political science department” and ”graduated with three degrees from college.” Comments on Assertions
In his statement today, Mr. Biden, who attended the Syracuse College of Law and graduated 76th in a class of 85, acknowledged: ”I did not graduate in the top half of my class at law school and my recollection of this was inacurate.”
As for receiving three degrees, Mr. Biden said: ”I graduated from the University of Delaware with a double major in history and political science. My reference to degrees at the Claremont event was intended to refer to these majors - I said ‘three’ and should have said ‘two.’ ” Mr. Biden received a single B.A. in history and political science.
@127:
Wait, isn’t being rich in America supposed to be a good thing?
It’s not some tinpot socialist hellhole like the UK.
128 — Not if they also made it illegal to travel for the purposes of abortion…
111 - There is a minority (I hope) on any debate who are so totally knee-jerk about it that they refuse even to listen to evidence or reasoned argument on the other side. I doubt it’s a left/right thing though.
A convinced anti-abortionist will generally put his fingers in his ears when talk turns to the reality that people will get dangerous illegal abortions if abortion is banned and many women will die. A convinced pro-death penalty type will not even consider the issue that executing child abusers (say) makes it more likely they will kill their victims to guarantee their silence. The same is true (on different tricky questions) for pro-abortion/anti-death penalty types.
117 - Sentience, but others would disagree I’m sure.
Excellent article, Henry. Many thanks.
Seems like a value bet to me.
Mildly O/T
The “grey vote” is there for the taking Gord,if you are listening
Children are outnumbered by the over-60s in Britain for the first time ever, official figures revealed today.
In the latest sign of the UK’s ageing population, the Office of National Statistics revealed 13,262,256 people were 60 or over in mid-2007.
That was up from 12,928,071 the previous year, while the number of under-18s fell from 13,119,654 to 13,111,023 over the same time period.
The disclosure came as it emerged that the population of the UK grew by nearly two million between 2001 and 2007.
The Office of National Statistics said the number of people in Britain reached 60,975,000 by the middle of last year, up 388,000 on mid-2006.
129- Biden is a complete jackass; although I have to take you at your word that that is indeed the content of the tape, I see nothing out of character in the quoted remarks.
Why are you talking about Abortion? The thing that is going to decide the American Election is the far more important issue of…..Gay Marriage!
128. “Surely, if it was devolved and Scotland took say a more restrictive approach women would just come south for an abortion. The same happens in ireland.”
Absolutely. But Scottish parliamentarians are perfectly capable of taking that into account when considering changes to the legislation. That’s no reason for abortion law not be devolved - the same principle applies to any number of other policy areas, like free personal care or tuition fees, where people could in theory move to take advantage of the different arrangements.
Certainly there are 2 big and recent arguments against the death penalty, at least in the case of ‘ordinary’ murders: Colin Stagg and Barry George.
130- Once Obama is President, he won’t be able to abolish wealth, but that won’t stop him from legislating against it.
@133:
You think science does, or even can, offer a single unambiguous answer to the question of sentience?
Sentience is not something that really emerges in humans until they’re approaching two years old anyway, hence my idea about allowing post partem abortions.
Coupled with the beneficial effect abortion has on crime rates, it’s a win-win.
“The thing that is going to decide the American Election is the far more important issue of…..Gay Marriage!”
Flippancy aside, I hope the Californians have the sense to vote to keep it legal.
139 - You may well be right on Barry George, but Stagg was never convicted of anything so wouldn’t have been executed (he spent time on remand pending trial but was cleared on the instruction of the judge I believe). Sion Jenkins might be another example, and Stefan Kiszko certainly was.
129 …… and yet Paddy Power have Biden at odds-on, absolutely incredible, unless they know something the rest of us don’t.
Morus - I have a couple of posts in the moderation trap. Can you free them?
139. How many innocent people were killed (often knowingly) by the state in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan or WWI and WWII. Why was that acceptable?
144. Could be a single large wager has changed their odds.
141 - No, but it’s where the debate should be in my opinion.
I dont know, I try and put forward a position which wrenches the abortion debate away from the moral quagmire that it is in and end up being attacked by pro and anti’s because, come hell or high water, they are going to keep it there!
143 - Possibly Sally Clark too although I doubt she would have been executed in practice in the circumstances of that most tragic of cases.
144 I think it is very unlikely PP know anything, PfP. It’s much more likely they have a very unbalanced book and wish to ensure no more bets on Biden.
Btw, I answered you earlier question but it got caught in the moderation trap. Yes, 100/30 about Brown to go in 2009 is a good value bet. Even though I got on big time at 9/2, I’m still tempted to top up.
138 but you could come south, have an abortion and return the same day. Taking advantage of different policies on tuition or personal care require a much greater commitment. Scotland could well have a different approach on those to the rest of Britain.
I’m not saying Scottish legislators could not make decisions on abortion. I’m just saying it does not matter as women could easily move elsewhere to obtain their desired outcome.
136. It’s from an NYT article at the time of the events (’87). The article refers to the tape, I couldn’t find it on youtube. If it still exists I’m sure there are some people hunting for it.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE4D91F3CF931A1575AC0A961948260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=print
Peter the Punter - I’ve freed your posts, Peter. Agree this tends to generate heat and no light, but I think there will be betting implications when Obama and McCain debate this as a policy.
However, I agree it would be best to keep our debates about it until then, as it isn’t exactly relevant as to who will be the next leader of Labour at Holyrood.
118. Indeed.
140. I don’t think this is any more out of bounds than “the one” ad was. Personally I’m pleased to see Obama go down such a populist route. Less of the personality cult and nicey nice stuff.
110
FRances, ignoring the obviously contentioous issue of the rights and wrongs of abortion I can actually see wh there should be a single policy on the matter for the whole country. Since we are still one country at present, it would be completely impractical to have a situation where abortion was allowed in England but not in Scotland or where the terms were substantially different.
All you would get in those circumstances is people crossing the border to have abortions. Such a policy would not save a single life and would be hypocritical in the extreme.
150 Thanks Peter - I think we are shadowing each other on this market as we both took the 20-1 on 2008 (as did Henry) and the 9-2 to which you refer on him going in 2009. This is now an eminently more likely prospect than it was even 3 months ago. I’m on!
148 - Morality is a quagmire but you can’t get away from something by pretending it isn’t a moral debate.
It is a major flaw in modern politics that politicians try to de-politicise things and make everything a morally neutral, ideologically neutral assessment based on “evidence”. PwC (or whoever) will produce evidence of anything you like - it will all be beautifully reasoned and “factual”, there will be flowcharts and spreadsheets and a neat conclusion at the end, but will always duck any really tricky questions.
I think that’s what you’re doing on the abortion issue. You are setting up an apparently neutral but essentially meaningless “test” and you then reach a neat but bogus conclusion.
151: “Possibly Sally Clark too although I doubt she would have been executed in practice…”
I believe a lot of people at the time said Derek Bentley wouldn’t possibly be executed, there were so many mitigating factors, etc…
Government House Sales data withdrawn for being inaccurate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7572603.stm
I hope they haven’t given Brown the wrong tractor stats
Off Topic - I was at a Party last night, and one of the friends of the girl whose birthday it was brought her boyfriend. Completely randomly, he is the brother of Devil’s Kitchen, and looks extremely like him.
It put me in mind of my favourite libertarian expletive-ridden blog, and I was just going over to visit, when the firewall at work told me that his blog is categorised as pornography. I think he might be rather pleased at that…
156- Nothing is out of bounds. It’s all a matter of taste. But there are a lot of contradictory sentiments about who Obama is coming from his own supporters. Is he: the next George Washington? nuanced intellectual? man of principle? compromiser? post-partisan? election pitbull? hmmm… I guess he is whatever his supporters want him to be at any given moment.
153. A Portuguese woman could go to Spain and back for an abortion in a single day. That’s no reason for there to be a single EU law on abortion (and if there was such a suggestion the Lisbon Treaty really would be irrecoverable in Ireland!).
As I suggested, in practice what would happen is that the Scottish law would remain very similar to the current position. Even if there was a difference of a couple of weeks in the legal limit, that would only affect a tiny number of women, who would in any case have the option of travelling to the other jurisdiction. Such a prospect does not justify the glaring anomaly of abortion law remaining reserved to Westminster.
155 Morus - There is a world of difference between discussing, on the one hand, how the matter impacts the politics and, by implication, betting, and on the other hand what is or is not the ‘correct’ viewpoint.
I am sure this doesn’t need to be stressed to you but the distinction seems to be lost on some.
99 - here was me thinking ‘bright socialist’ was an oxymoron…
159. I’m not pretending it isn’t a moral debate at all. It is. What I have been arguing is that the supposed ‘morality’ being used to justify one position is not being consistently applied in other spheres.
And if ‘morals’ are only appropriate in certain isolated and convenient cases but not in others, then they are meaningless - or ‘bogus’ to use your preferred term.
Martin Coxall - to be fair, this crass incoherence on abortion/capital punishment/war-making is not always confined to the left - though I agree it is mainly found on the lefty side of things.
The opinions of “test” are a classic example of a rightwing incoherence that mirrors the fatuousness of the left.
She is a Tory. She is, I understand, a Roman Catholic. She is bitterly and utterly opposed to Barack Obama - mainly, I think, because he is “pro-choice”. Her concern for the unborn fetus is so dramatic it overrides all other considerations.
Fair enough, you may say.
However, and notoriously, she was ALSO happy for us to bomb the f*** out of thousands of Iraqi women and children, slaughtering them in their piteous innocence. And her excuse for this? It’s OK, because “we warn and leaflet before we bomb”. That is a direct quote. I’ll never forget it.
Personally I think the only coherent position is either to admit that the state can, in certain circumstances, take lives, or permit the taking of lives - or you can assert firmly that such lifetaking is always impermissible.
I’m in the first camp. Sometimes we have to bomb our enemies, even innocent citizens (though I hope I would never be crass enough to employ phrases like test’s, when explaining it). I also had no problem with, for instance, Saddam’s execution. Indeed I would be in favour of capital punishment in the UK, for murderers, if we could exclude the possibility of wrongful conviction.
(that is a very big IF)
Reluctantly, I also think abortion should be allowed, up to a certain number of weeks gestation. 20 is about right, for me.
So I’m on one side. Yes: sometimes murder, state sanctioned, must be allowed. But I accept the valid opinions of those who argue the complete opposite.
However, I find it difficult to respect those self-regarding, mainly lefty cretins who would daintily accept one kind of killing but not the other. Fastidious little twerps.
@162:
I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Look how down with de yoot I am.
159 - Well I disagree, I think any such conclusion would be much less ‘bogus’ than one based on the winner of competing moralities. Not totally of course but it’s a matter of degrees. Anyway, the thread seems to have moved on.
159 - Exactly - the fallacy of “evidence-based policy”.
All policy should be evidence-informed, but cannot possibly be evidence-based. All that means is that you are unaware (perhaps deliberately) of whatever evaluative structure (usually an incoherent one) you are employing (probably incorrectly) to make your decision.
The question of ‘what should we do’ is evaluative, so needs an evaluative framework to answer it (moral, political, legal).
If you can’t even recognise what your evaluative structure is, how can you claim it is coherent, let alone suitable, let alone correct?
Claiming that ’science’ can answer ‘the’ question is either duplicitious or silly.
@171:
Based on ukpaul’s previous outpourings, I’m going with “silly”.
Meanwhile, isn’t Cathy Jamieson trying to become the next leader of the Scottish Labour Party?
163. He’s quite capable of being all of them. You need to be mindful of both high ideals and low politics.
164 I agree it will be an anomaly when or if Scotland becomes a sovereign state like Portugal and Spain. But only when that happens.
Right - I’m off home via the horrible train and tube that takes a couple of hours, so will check back in later on.
Posts in moderation might be held up for a little while - if you don’t use your usual username-email combination, they will get caught in the spam trap - just so you know…
Laters.
“Does Scottish Labour send their good people to Westminster”
Fernando, I would be obliged if you could enlighten me as to what particular labour individual you refer to as a good people?
I must be missing something , as I am unclear about who this particular individual (s) might be??
Pray, enlighten me, o wise one?
No? Thought not!
168. I agree the comments by ‘test’ were an equally good example of the bizarre inconsistency of views on these subjects.
but I’ve really come to respect and admire how Cathy has been making the running.”
Henry-I believe you forgot to take your pills today-you naughty boy!
New Minnesota Public Radio News/Humphrey Institute poll for Minnesota :
McCain 38% .. Obama 48% .. Nader 3% .. Barr 1%
http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/pdf/HHH_MPR_August_President.pdf
175. “I agree it will be an anomaly when or if Scotland becomes a sovereign state like Portugal and Spain. But only when that happens.”
I explained this earlier, but just to underline the point - the reason it’s already an anomaly is that virtually all other aspects of health policy and criminal law are devolved to Scotland. Whichever way you look at it, abortion law has to fall into one of those two categories - nad therefore there is no logical basis for it to be reserved to Westminster.
172 - From you Martin? The Queen of barking?
There are so many with a stake in the abortion issue that it’s difficult to try and wrest it back into territory away from the religious or the leftist moralists.
Until (if ever) it happens we’ll still get the heat and no light you’ve seen on the thread today.
160 …. and not forgetting Timothy Evans of 10 Rillington Place notoriety and his plea from the scaffold “It was Christie what done it” - truly chilling.
139. The problem is that if we rewound the law to pre-1965, Stagg (had he been wrongly convicted) could not have been hanged, while George could have been.
I say could, because even in its full-blown application prior to the 1957 Homicide Act, only about 50% of those sentenced to death were actually hanged, and an even smaller proportion of women. Commutation was commonplace, perhaps even the norm.
In other words, the application of capital punishment was to all intents and purposes in the purview of the politicians, not the judiciary or the jury….
One may make the case that this was sensible and humane - only occasional hangings of the the most heinous criminals were required to demonstrate “the deterrent”. But the cases of Bentley and Ellis, and one or two others, leave the impression that capital punishment was sometimes also used as a means of general societal moral control, and even as a bludgeon against the concept of the popular will…
The arbitrariness of capital punishment was the main reason why Executioner Pierrepoint resigned, and became an abolitionist (although in his dotage he may have partially recanted). “Nobody wanted it (hanging) for everybody, but no-one could agree on who should get off..”
Does anyone have any thoughts on which is the one true religion?
@182:
Let’s just say, it takes one to know one, dear.
179. This is good politics from Jamieson:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/08/20/labour-leadership-hopeful-cathy-jamieson-blasts-rival-over-tory-deal-talk-86908-20704489/
Compare it to this from Andy:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/news-feed/2008/08/20/exclusive-i-m-the-man-to-stop-alex-salmond-vows-labour-hopeful-andy-kerr-86908-20704490/
She’s much sharper.
New Economist/YouGov National poll :
McCain 38% .. Obama 39%
http://www.economist.com/media/econ18aug2008_tabs.pdf
185 Yes. Mine.
173 Eh???
Des L, you have me stumped! If you think of some of the figures from the past - Robertson, Cook, John Smith - would they have been willing to sit in holyrood or would they have wanted to get to Westminster asap. Dewar chose Holyrood. Scottish Labour have a problem if they can’t attract similar people to Holyrood.
@185:
I think we should have a war, winner take all.
@189:
The Church of Saint Necessarily-a-good-bet.
190- Just trying to highlight how far off track things seem to have gotten here, that’s all…
185 SaS. The ARSE is the true one. Follow your nose for true and sweet smell of personal deliverence !!
185 - No opinion but I think we must subject the question to an evidence based policy analysis to de-politicise the issue and take it outside the quagmire of moral debate.
193 Come on, Martin, like all good Pbers, surely you worship the god of Value?
Has Gordon arrived in Beijing - I note that some members of Team GB performing today have underperformed?
183. Yes, but for me that is the ONLY argument against capital punishment - that you might hang innocents. And even then it is quite weak. If you allow abortion of innocent fetuses, and you accept the necessity of killing innocents in war (which nearly all of us do), I see no logic in the fierce opposition to the death penalty of warmongering, proabortion lefties.
The only explanation is a kind of “distaste” for killing at close proximity, a distaste that doesn’t apply when you can, say, kill people at an antiseptic distance with great big bombs.
The same weird paradox applies to abortion. If you agree with abortion you should be prepared to watch one happening, and you should allow others to see the same: to see the little fetus with its little hands being flushed down the toilet. Because that’s what you are allowing, if you agree with abortion.
Yet the most vehement opponents of permitting such graphic imagery on TV are always those who are PRO-abortion. This can’t be out of any respect for the “dignity” of the unborn child - they believe the fetus should die.
The only explanation is that pro-abortion people are scared such imagery might undermine their cause, OR they simply can’t stomach the reality of what they campaign to allow.
Sam Harris, the American writer, thinks these inconsistencies are down to some basic logical/emotional flaw in the human brain; this flaw is, it seems, more evident in lefties - because they are stupider and nastier anyway, in general.
197 - And are you one of the high priests of Value?
New GQR Research/NPR poll of 19 battleground states :
McCain 45% .. Obama 46% .. Nader 2% .. Barr 1%
Note - In 2004 Bush beat Kerry 52/48 in these states.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93812738
191. Sad to say, even a genuine devolutionist like John Smith would almost certainly have opted for Westminster. Only SNP politicians seem to regard Holyrood as their first choice, although of course for minor parties like the Greens (and dare I say the Tories?) it’s their only real choice. Charles Kennedy used to muse that he might switch to the Scottish Parliament once he was no longer federal Lib Dem leader - I don’t see much sign of that so far.
171 - Morus, I’m surprised that you try to paint an absolutist position as regards what I said that has no basis in my words.
It is easy to forget that this is an issue about human beings and so it becomes an airy philosophical debate, it is an issue where different sides use their own interpretation of what is moral to override any other factor. It is about time that we tried to move away from this confrontational position and to move towards one that relegated moral issues below their current elevated plane.
Both sides, however, have taken positions which means they are entrenched and anyone who tries to break their positions becomes a common enemy. It’s a dispiriting situation at best.
Martin C - If you’re chatting me up I’m afraid I play for the opposition.
199. That’s a silly argument. If you are willing to permit something then you must be willing to watch it in graphic detail?
In that case I want all CLP meetings banned. And Tim Montgomerie.
204. The correct phrase, I understand, is that “you take the bus rather than the Tube”.
200 I do what I can to spread the word, James.
199 - “If you agree with abortion you should be prepared to watch one happening”
Should you? I am all in favour of open-heart surgery but I’d rather not watch to be honest. I can’t think of a consensual sexual practice I would ban, but many I’d rather not see!
@206:
As a proud Tower Hamlets activist, I think you’ll find that I prefer to take it up the Docklands Light Railway.
New Research 2000/RGJ/KTVN Channel 2 poll for Nevada :
McCain 43% .. Obama 44% .. Barr 3% .. Nader 2%
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/misc?url=/misc/inside_nevada_politics.pbs&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a47c0e9e3-2bcd-439f-8b7a-bfc5884a1123Post%3a974fcb47-2db4-40f9-9761-e527efc77c3c&sid=sitelife.rgj.com
205. Gosh the power of your argument has quite floored me. Er, not.
Pro-abortionists don’t just refuse to witness graphic imagery of abortions themselves, they campaign against such imagery ever being allowed on TV. They don’t want to let anyone watch it, they don’t want anyone to understand, visually, what an abortion really entails.
Why? Likesay, can’t be out of some moral respect for the embryo - they are happy to see it flushed out the Barking Outfall.
@205:
*guffaw*
206 - The Hammersmith & City rather than the Bakerloo perhaps?
199 “I see no logic in the fierce opposition to the death penalty of warmongering, proabortion lefties.” Do you mean “for” rather than “of”? If so, I’m with you.
@213:
No, I reckon he’s strictly a London Overground kind of guy.
199. There are other arguments, Sean, such as it brutalises the agents of the state. Pierrepoint snuffed out the lives of 564 people in a 25-year career. Oddly, his view was that while the state had capital punishment, someone had to do the job, and in his view, no-one could do it more humanely and efficiently than he could. It was his vocation, or calling….
However, one of his predecessors, Ellis, committed suicide, probably as a result of having to hang Edith Thompson in 1923….
208. Far be it from me to defend our resident nutter, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that people should be educated about what an abortion actually entails. That could be done at schools so that women could make an informed choice later in life. Needless to say, that education should stick to the plain facts and be free of the religious indoctrination that I was subjected to at my Catholic school.
211 - They don’t all campaign against it. And relatively few campaign against anti-abortion groups distributing material to people who want to see it.
But it isn’t, surely, a wholly unreasonable point to say that it’s something a lot of people don’t want to see and it shouldn’t be forced on them in a Party Political Broadcast. Similarly, I would personally favour limits on the extent to which the SeanT Pro-Felching Party could go in their PPBs on showing graphic detail.
198 “Has Gordon arrived in Beijing - I note that some members of Team GB performing today have underperformed?”
He’s been in Afghanistan today - so getting nearer to Beijing, hence the performances tailing off. I suspect that when he finally arrives, the Team GB medals will dry up, and we shall be overtaken in the Medal Table by Russia, Australia and Nauru. And then we shall have the toe-curling embarrassment of “Welcome to London 2012!” which will involve the Beckhams performing Shakespeare, a multi-racial dance troupe enacting a homage to knife crime - and Gordon gurning for Britain as he grimaces his way through Boris receiving the Olympic flame. Gonna be priceless!
Am I on the right site?
Within the, ahem, “Tube-taking fraternity”, there are further gradations. I once met a guy who actually favoured “the Drain” from Bank to Waterloo.
220 - Are any of us?
@216:
Rod, do you seriously think we’d find it hard to recruit executioners if needed?
We could run competitions with the red tops; we should be able to amass a veritable army of wannabe Jack Ketches from the readerships with no problems.
Though I think we’d have to tempt them with more cathartic, traditional, brutal and entertaining forms of execution than hanging.
@220:
Good christ, I hope not.
After “Draftgate” …. No not the breaking wind from under my kilt …. but those McCain’s comments on US military readiness, we now have “Housegate” as McCain forgets how many homes he owns !!
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12685.html
Surely a newly-born baby, no matter in what physical condition, could not survive without the charity of others. Should its termination be sanctioned by the state?
223. Hanging always feels a little squalid to me. The hood, the drop, the inevitable ejaculat1on, the mandrake.
I think there is a certain brutal nobility in the axeman.
@221:
He’s a brave man. I always terminate at Hainault (via Newbury Park).
223- How is Martin Day with the axe? I know he is looking for work…
Obama team quick off the mark with “McCain 7 homes” TV ad :
Scroll down
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/21/obama-tears-into-mccain-f_n_120359.html
223 - It’s a fairly skilled job. You would presumably want somebody like Pierrepoint who in an odd way cared about the people he executed enough to dedicate himself to getting people from the cell to their death very quickly and with no chance of a mistake.
Psychos (and there are enough about) would be immune to the psychological pressure of repeated killing but would be poor executioners. People who care about doing it right would be good executioners but the psychological pressure would get to them even if they ideologically favoured it.
229 - Does he have to provide his own axe or are you offering it as part of the package?
@229:
He can learn on the job. It’s a vocation isn’t it.
232- My axe collection is a bit light at the moment. Surely there must be a spare somewhere in the Tower of London?
233- I guess the customers never complain whether you do the job well or not.
234 - I don’t think it’s the kind of job you go into if you’re seriously concerned with customer satisfaction.
@234:
Generally speaking, only the nobility were given the liberty of the Tower, and as such were afforded the noble honour of being beheaded by a sword.
223. No, I don’t think we’d have any problem recruiting them. Keeping them, and ensuring that executions ran decorously, might be a different matter…
As Pierrepoint recounts in his autobiography, there were numerous instances of wannabees thinking they were up for it, right until the morning of the actual job…
And others who could only get through the job with liquid assistance, often with disastrous results…
It was a rare skill, and since everyone who has performed an execution in this country is now dead, it’d be hard now to design an executioner’s “training course”…
And in other news, apparently Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “can’t stand John McCain”:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0808/Reid_I_cant_stand_John_McCain.html
I think Reid wins the award for most colicky politican in Washington. The guy must have hemorrhoids on his hemorrhoids.
216. Fascinating guy, Pierrepoint. Here’s my favourite story about him (adapted from Wiki), which I’m sure you know, Rod, but might be of refreshing interest to others:
*James Henry “Tish” Corbitt (c. 1913 – 28 November 1950) was an English murderer hanged in Strangeways prison in Manchester by Albert Pierrepoint.
Corbitt knew his hangman even before he committed the crime. At the time of the murder, Corbitt was a frequent customer in Pierrepoint’s pub “Help The Poor Struggler” (on Manchester Road, Hollinwood, in the town of Oldham), and sang with the hangman round the piano; Corbitt called Pierrepoint “Tosh” out of familiarity, while Pierrepoint, in turn, called him “Tish”.
Corbitt knew his local publican was also the national executioner. That did not deter him from his crime. In 1949, in a fit of jealousy, Corbitt throttled his mistress in a hotel room in Ashton-under-Lyne.
In his memoirs (”Executioner: Pierrepoint”), Pierrepoint wrote about his feelings when returning to the pub after Corbitt’s execution: “I thought if any man had a deterrent to murder poised before him, it was this troubadour whom I called Tish. He was not only aware of the rope, he had the man who handled it beside him singing a duet. The deterrent did not work…”
Pierrepoint goes on to relate Corbitt’s final moments, when Tish was hanged by Tosh: ‘At twenty seconds to nine the next morning I went into the death cell. He seemed under a great strain, but I did not see stark fear in his eyes, only a more childlike worry. He was anxious to be remembered, and to be accepted.
Hallo, Tosh, he said, not very confidently. Hallo Tish, I said. How are you? I was not effusive, just gave the casual warmth of my nightly greeting from behind the bar.’
Pierrepoint goes on to describe how Corbitt smiles and relaxes “after this greeting. After strapping Corbitt’s arms, Pierrepoint says “Come on Tish, old chap”…*
234 SaS. In contrast I confess to a small collection of lochaber axes !!
240- I knew there was a reason I shy away from too much criticism of your state-by-state polls!
Why does every evening bulletin on the BBC carry updates on Gary Glitter’s daily trips to and from the airport? Does anyone give a shit?
241 SaS. They’re your states not mine !!
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109744/Gallup-Daily-1point-Margin-Matches-Average-Past-Week.aspx
242
a few million mothers and fathers in the UK ????????????????????
239. Yes, but the equally remarkable fact is that Pierrepoint did not know who he was about to hang until the day before the execution. The name meant nothing to him. Only when he took his customary look through the spyhole in the condemned cell, did he recognise “Tish.”
The following morning “Tish” was so relieved at being acknowledged by his old friend “Tosh” that he fairly ran for joy to the trapdoor, and strained to help Albert put the rope around his neck - wrongly in the event, leading to Pierrepoint having to take a few extra seconds to properly adjust the noose…
As you say, Pierrepoint had severe doubts about the “deterrent” from that moment on…
When Obama’s campaign isn’t busy attacking McCain over things like his flub over his seven homes, Obama is complaining about being attacked by McCain:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/woe_is_me_said_the_democrat.html
My hopes for Obama as President, let alone Obama as post-partisan uniter, have never seemed more remote…
246. Golly yes, I’d forgotten that bit. What a great story: Albert Pierrepoint. Wasn’t he from a dynasty of executioners? I don’t think the movie did his life, er, justice.
While we’re on the subject, didn’t Hitler very sensibly bring back the axeman, complete with executioner’s hood and big wooden block? I read that somewhere. Might have been one of your posts.
Now I’m off to watch West Wing. Bit of a contrast. SawadeeK!
248. Yes, both Pierrepoint’s father and uncle had been state executioners; his uncle Tom was still hanging people at the age of 72!
Re: Hitler. No, he did not bring back the axeman. A small version of the “Guillotine”, known as the “Fallbeil”, had been the common method of execution in most of Germany for several centuries…
249 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fallbeil_muenchen_1854.jpg
an 1854 german version
On topic, I think Gray’s main plus point is that he has less ‘previous’ due to not being in the Scottish Parliament between 2003-2007.
Salmond’s standard answer to criticism from Labour is ‘well, why didn’t you do X when you were in office?’.
With Gray as leader that line of defence is diminished.
249. Interesting - you’re quite right, Rod, and I hereby bow to your superior knowledge of all things Nazi.
I just checked: Hitler ordered 40,000 civil death sentences when leader of the Third Reich, but the executions were all by guillotine or (sometimes) firing squad.
And yet I distinctly remember, a few years back, a reputable history book which told me that Adolf reintroduced the axeman. Just goes to show that you can’t trust everything you read. Apart from my posts on pb, obviously. And yours.
And now I am definitely out for the count. Nearly 1 am and I’ve had a very Gladstonian evening. G’nite!
248. Wasn’t he from a dynasty of executioners?
He was obviously a chip off the old block then!
Boris Johnson:
Amused by the bemused look on the Chinese officials face when Boris said we take our hats off to you and then explained what it meant!
For sheer panache, you can’t beat John Amery’s quip when Pierrepoint entered his cell in 1945: “Ah, Mr. Pierrepoint - I’ve always wanted to meet you, but not, of course, under these circumstances…”
The VP tension is getting unbearable
UPDATE: Kaine refused to confirm a Politico report that Obama is staying the night tonight at the Virginia governor’s mansion.
“I’m not going to talk about my interactions with the campaign,” Kaine said with a coy smile before he ducked into his car. However Obama’s spokeswoman Jen Psaki told ABC News’ Sunlen Miller that Obama would be staying in a Virginia hotel tonight
223 - Peter Bruinvels famously volunteered to act as the public hangman while campaigning for restoring capital punishment while an MP in the 1980s.
257. Might beGordon Brown’s ideal job. He might even be able to kill people without cocking it up!
This is probably why Herbert has put the family silver on Tim Kaine to be Obama’s VP
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) met privately for 15 minutes Thursday morning at the Omni Richmond hotel with the staff of one of his top two or three prospects for running mate, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.
Margaret Talev of McClatchy Newspapers, the pool reporter from the Obama press corps, reports that she asked the governor whether Obama has asked him to be his running mate.
Awkward!
Kaine replied: “I’m going to let the campaign speak for the campaign.” Talev reports that he also declined to comment when she asked if he would rule it out.
Talev asked him what he and Obama talked about. Kaine answered: “He visited with my staff just to basically say hi to them and thank them for all their hard work.”
Obama also took a photo with Kaine’s staff. A thank-you, or a getting-to-know-you?
One of our local newspapers has published an interesting story this week in which John Redwood is denying allegations that the Wokingham Conservative Association has received donations amounting to £24975 from Mabey Johnson, a construction company currently involved in a “cash for Iraq contracts investigation”:
http://www.getwokingham.co.uk/news/s/2034147_mp_has_no_link_with_cash_for_iraq_contracts_investigation
258. Bad idea that as Brown might nick it as a policy!
Blair had Education, Education, Education!
Brown might replace this with Execution, Execution, Execution!
260. oh - right: The Tories in opposition are responsible for ‘cash for Iraq contracts’.
I can never understand why the LD’s took 2.4M off that *Businessman* but did not have to pay it back to the businessman’s creditors when it was seen to be stolen?
44.”One parliament’s knowledgeable and non-partisan debate on abortion and limits on, what is seen by people, as a minority issue affecting few votes.”
Sorry, but that is not what happened last time.
259 Myrtle - you’re a proper little gossip!
263. Martin - it appears Mabey and Johnson won some very lucrative contracts in the past in the Philippines - see:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/dec/20/uk.freedomofinformation
In this piece from the Guardian dated 20 December 2005 we are told:
“Analysis of M&J’s accounts show that the Philippine contracts have returned an exceptionally high rate of profit and turned the Mabey family into Britain’s 141st richest. They have the former Conservative trade minister John Redwood on their payroll as an investment adviser, and donate to the Conservative party.”
258
not that simple…. you have to get the height and weight right for a hanging or you could decapitate the poor soul. Gordo would be bound to get it wrong.
I suppose you’ve wondered how it is that so many American high school students can’t find the Earth on a globe and other such shocking stories that come to light from time to time. Well, much of the thanks can go to the geniuses who run the American public schools. One such group of geniuses has come up with the innovative idea of “effort-based grading,” in which there is no penalty for turning in assignments as late as you like, and in which assignment grades that would lower your overall class grade are simply thrown out. That way, failing is virtually impossible, even for the most determined slackers! And some of these boys and girls will grow up to be future American voters…
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/081508dnmetdisdgrades.48e6cc22.html
I do hope Nick Palmer and other Labour supporters are noticing the nature of the Tory one-party state that they are likely to hand power to. If I were them, I wouldn’t enact any more power for the executive, indeed I’d do some rapid repealing.
For the voter though: despair and fear looms, either way.
266. Yes, I think chemical Ali ended up losing his head in the hang mans noose!
Boris:
I have just missed the first half of the Boris background documentory!
So Obama says he’s made up his mind, which means the announcement should be imminent (I guess the announcement has to be imminent anyway!). He’s sure spending a lot of time today with Kaine and Kaine’s entourage. Is this just a huge fakeout or is it indeed Kaine?
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/08/obama-says-hes.html
Is it just me here on PB and Martin, who is checking in occasionally as he watches a Boris documentary?
271. Only caught the last 10 Minutes of the Boris documentary! I had been drinking last night and could not remember which channel it was on!!! This time i had been to my local supermarket!
270. You don’t really think he is going for HRC: Obama would be mad to do that!
54.”44. Osborne was the only Tory to vote against the proposals to reduce the time limits for abortion, so I think it has become a partisan issue”
Err, the Conservatives were given a free vote on this bill.
272- If it’s Hillary, I’ll never make any kind of political prediction again! That would be a huge shocker.
This is one in the eye for Salmond:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7570978.stm
274. Quite agree - absolutly barking for Obama to enlist HRC!
273. (If you find my later post you’ll see my correction.) The fact that 92 per cent of tories voted against the government on a free vote makes my point that it is becoming an issue that divides left and right ideologically, as in the US.
Indeed if Obama picks HRC this means he thinks he will lose! Drags her down with him!
278- Mutual suicide pact? Some of you guys think very creatively indeed! This is about as likely as the theory at the top of this thread in which I am apparently trying to lull Obama supporters into a false sense of security by predicting his victory, thereby throwing the election to McCain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2597962/Barack-Obama-leaps-on-John-McCain-homes-gaffe.html
I never realised he was that wealthy! Good job i am not part of a brewing family: I would probably goto work and end up Bollocksing myself to death!
A really cruel method of slow,albeit psychological execution could be to have to attend Tottenham Hotspur and Watford for life on alternate Saturdays
:lol: (I know I’d soon top myself!)
BBC - Home Office Contractor loses data stick containing details of thousands of criminals.
276 BBC iPlayer has Boris ready to watch.
O/T A while back discussed how Council political groups can be full of schemers and dirty politics. The Daily Mail splurge on boxer Billy Joe Saunders for allegedly lewd behaviour IMHO is an example of this behaviour but in sporting politics. The ABA has been cut out of Olympic boxing, sidelined by UK Sport and feels its not getting any kudos for the great team we have out there. So a “source” briefs journalists about a story that can damage Terry Edwards and the current set-up, especially if its given the full Daily Mail treatment (son of travellers, lewd behaviour, drag up other “scandals”). Backstabbing background briefings from anonymous sources.
Gordon & Dacre are so alike in many ways.
It doesnt matter who leads Labour.
Today, the Daily Mail reports that a Veterans Parade was cancelled due to ‘Elf’n'Safety (whatever) although resources were found for a Parade of Homosexuals.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1047596/Veterans-parade-cancelled-lack-facilities-weeks-gay-pride-march-held.html
While Labour serves as a gravy train for misfits and outsiders and treats everyday people as slaves, serfs and suspects, nothing will change.
281.
Or instead invite Gordon to light a bonfire:
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04_02/brownSLSH0604_468×412.jpg
269. The last UK hanging-decapitation was of Robert Goodale at Norwich in 1885, although there was a partial-decapitation in Liverpool in 1891. James Berry was the executioner on both occasions, and was sacked shortly afterwards.
During the time of the Pierrepoints, the Home Office scientists came up with an official table of drop lengths, based on height and weight. The intention was to exert a 1260 foot-pounds force between the second and third cervical vertebrae, severing the spinal cord. Albert Pierrepoint used it as a guide only, adjusting it based on his personal calculations, depending on the thickness of the prisoner’s neck muscles. He would calibrate the drop to a quarter-inch tolerance…
There were no more mishaps, although Pierrepoint did have a hairy moment in 1941, when called upon to hang a German spy. The man fought like a tiger, until a scrum of warders finally managed to get him onto the trap. At the last minute the man leapt off the trap, and the noose began to come adrift from around his neck. Luckily it caught under his nose, and the rope snapped taut. After leaving the corpse dangling for the requisite hour, the post-mortem revealed a perfect break between the second and third cervical vertebrae…
All in a day’s work…
282, it staggers me how cavalier so many people are with such knowledge.
284, beggars belief.
What we need to do is organise a systematic cull of mindless jobsworths, and fire every last one of them into space. Possibly using some sort of giant artillery gun.
Or, we could have them used as target practice on the next St George’s Day longbow contest in Morley.
284. Yes War vetrans are likely to cause violent protests!
I could do a joke about the other group you mentioned but on balance i think better not to!
Brown insults Boris Johnson at Olympic event:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/arts/2007/05/15/brownbig.jpg
New Fox News/Opinions Dynamics National poll :
McCain 39% .. Obama 42%
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/082108Poll1.pdf
247. Give me a break. How much does every Republican complain about the “liberal media”?
O/T (actually, I think just about every post today has been O/T)- This report reveals that South Dakota Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, who had an aneurysm two years ago and is up for re-election this year, has refused to participate in any election election debates because of the poor quality of his speech. Mysteriously, every pundit has predicted all along that Johnson will face no credible challenge in this election despite his condition and despite the fact that he was re-elected by the narrowest margin of any U.S. Senator the last time he faced the voters in 2002. This story has never made sense, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Johnson has a much closer re-election battle than has been predicted by (apparently) all of the pundits.
http://www.politicker.com/pindell-report/race/6609/us-senate-south-dakota
285 Even as (or especially as) a vexed,despairing Labourite,that piccy made me laugh out loud
********Defection Alert! ********** Defection Alert! ***********
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/2598371/Hillary-Clinton-brother-in-meeting-to-support-John-McCain.html
********Defection Alert! ********** Defection Alert! ***********
Lawsuit filed against Obama in Philadelphia, claiming he’s ineligible, and restraining him from running for President….
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/breaking-lawsuit-being-filed-today-in-philadelphia-media-alert/#comments
287. Do you live in Morley?
293. I do it for an element of fun not political point scoring!
287 Morley St George’s Day longbow contest? I wasn’t aware of it. Now, if it could be sponsored, say with a fine silver & gold cup (or arrow)…substantial monetary prize (100,000 Guineas), it would become an important event.
Imagine, men across the length and breadth of the country honing their longbow skills. I dare say the Welsh would take the prize - but the spectacle would match Wimbledon.
Just wonder what I’ve got coming from Ave It 08 for dissing his beloved Watford-off to my local now so at least I’ll be fortified by a few pints of Ringwood Old Thumper ( a beautifyl pale ale that weighs in at 5.6% ABV-a new JDs has opened 20 mins from my front door,so my bad experience with a town centre JD’s is starting to recede (the event that contributed to my near-breakdown last summer)
Ciao for now!!
291- Way to change the issue, Socrates! I’m sorry, but your side doesn’t have 100% control of all forms of media yet. But once Obama is in office, I’m sure the “fairness doctrine” will come roaring back and opposition voices will be properly muzzled.
299. JD’s - what is JD’s?
Bit of advice from a fellow boozer! Stick to the lower percentage booze! The high percentage stuff seems to have a higher incidence of phychotic episodes on the suseptable! (No scientific research to back that up but just observation from what people have said to me over the years!).
Take it easy!
289 Brown insulted our troops in Afghanistan by comparing them to Olympic Athletes. Brown neither knows nor cares they face prolonged separation, hardship & mortal danger.
It is not for Brown to make such a comparison. He targets their schools while Without the independent schools, our medal tally would be less than half.
What Gordon Brown really thinks of English voters:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/arts/2007/05/15/brownbig.jpg
re 281
Patrick, watching Spurs may indeed be psychological torture but not as painful as it must have been for you Hammers fans watching us beat you 4-3 in injury time on you own manor two seasons back.
Isn’t it a bit early in the season for you lot to be getting cocky?
301 J D Wetherspoon’s
302. Brown i am afraid believes his own retrick and none of the reality. It’s sad really that people in government to long decay into pointless dogmatic hpoliticians.
The signifigance is the new national appeal money will go solely into Labour held seats but as most csh is under uber local control there is no chance of uch being diverted from say Hampshire to Hull.
by Yellow Submarine August 21st, 2008 at 2:58 pm
- I thought LDCPs had to hand over Cash to the center for redistribution.
New ARG polls for Florida and New Hampshire :
Florida
McCain 47% .. Obama 46%
New Hampshire
McCain 45% .. Obama 46%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
300. It’s such a conservative perspective to think giving both sides of an argument is muzzling!
Regardless of where you think the bias is, you know the so-called “liberal” media has presenters of both sides, because they try to be proper journalists. But since when did Fox or Limbaugh try to be even handed? That’s why Republicans fear the fairness doctrine so much - it takes away their one-sided propaganda networks. If the “liberal” media was really so liberal, that would be held back from its partisan attacks too!
292. This Tim Johnson?
http://www.pollster.com/polls/sd/08-sd-sen-ge-dvj.php
does anyone know if US polling has any equivalent of Smithson’s Law (the one about polls always overstating Labour)?. Do polls generally favour one side or the other?
305. I used to go in one of those in Leeds railway station and then one in Huddersfield (Sometimes on the same evening
).
Not really my sort of people in their! I once got talking to a sailor who killed someone in an asian country in the Huddersfield one! Funnily enough i stopped going into them after that!
Until last week i went into the Leeds station one and got talking to an Irish executive at EB*AY - Interesting! Irish economy seems rough at this time! An Irish builder also confired this.
All it really confirmed in my mind was the fact i don’t like the pubs anymore - especially when fights kick off: I had to tell the bar staff to get the old Bill in to sort some bloke who kept hitting people and kicking off! I could not believe i had to tell staff to contact the old Bill!
284 The Council that favours homosexuals and discriminates against war veterans, is of course, Labour.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1047596/Veterans-parade-cancelled-lack-facilities-weeks-gay-pride-march-held.html
270: yes, surely should make Kaine the favo(u)rite now. If it’s a smokescreen to tease the media they’ll just get irritated - why play games when you want their enthusiastic interest 24 hours later?
311. Yes, Republicans have historically performed about a point better than the final poll averages.
277.I have now skimmed the thread. My frustration is down to the fact that the whole Embryology bill did not get a free vote across all the parties in the HoC’s. In that had happened, I have no doubt we would have seen the Commons debating chamber at its best, and I am certain I would have felt more comfortable about the eventual outcome.
I was disappointed that Nick Palmer’s worthy amendment did not make it.
199. Dear God, has SeanT joined the abortion fundamentalists now?
Regarding the States, now that Russia has shown itself to be a threat to world peace, American voters will look to the security of strong defence rather than the hope & smoke hippy.
The left of course, dont care about people threatened by Russia. They are “not important in the great scheme”.
Russia is a Nationalist state, so why do the left support it? Because it is the enemy.
309- Socrates, have you ever listened to National Public Radio? Because of circumstances I won’t go into here, I unfortunately had to listen to it for hours per day for months on end, particularly around the time of the 2006 mid-term elections. Conservative voices were totally absent from their political programming 9 days out of 10, and on the rare occasions when they were permitted, they would be effectively drowned out by the other left-wing guests.
As another example, do you ever read the New York Times? Do you find that conservative opinion is given fair representation there, along with all the overt and covert left-wing editorializing that constitutes nearly all of the paper?
And on Fox, the tilt is definitely to the right, but left-wing voices are no stranger to its programs and the ideological battle is usually waged above board rather than in the underhanded manner typical of the left-wing media (NPR always swears up and down that they are already so fair and balanced that there’s no NEED to make an effort to bring in conservative voices!).
I really don’t know where you get this idea that all non-right-wing media is so fair and even-handed. The fairness doctrine is designed to target the one forum where conservatives have managed to attain dominance: non-public radio. What about television, newspapers, magazines, and all the left-wing public television and radio? No need to touch those. Except Fox… how can we get rid of Fox… hmmmmm…
312 Martin, most of the pubs on my side of Hudds are rural and fights never take place. I used to like the Coq d’Or at Farnley Tyas, but not so good since it changed hands.
317. I think SeanT was dissapointed when Glitter failed to be shot by a firing squad! I reckon he would have gone to watch if he was out there! Probably end up in a book!
199 Perhaps Abortion should be provided free and on demand to Labour voters and people of need. Like the people of need who get preferential treatment with regards to housing etc.
310- Yes, he’s polling well now. I don’t think he’ll be polling nearly that well in two months. That’s all I’m saying, so don’t get your hackles up about it, Socrates.
314- If it’s not Kaine, Nick, it will indeed take some explaining as to why Obama decided to engage in this sleight of hand.
319 Sometime last year, I saw some pictures along the lines of Left/Liberal thugs attacking a anti-abortionist campaigner. The camera crews were photographs smiling organically.
If anyone has a link, please post it.
315. Thanks Socrates. It’d be a great subject for a thread sometime taking us through the US polling market. Do they do calls or face to face - hard to find US people on the streets when they’re all in their cars. Past weighting? Particular quirks of some pollsters we should know about? I’m often surprised at the small numbers in national polls given how diverse the country is. Also some pollsters seem to be linked to parties - isn’t Zogby seen as Republican leaning?
320. Yes they are better that side! I used to like going to the Hare & Hounds it is on the top near to Emily moor! Nice food!
There is another one near the (Corn Mill) Huddersfield/ Brighouse Junction and a hotel is in the same place! Once went out for a bike ride about 4 years ago and went in there for a pint! The another and then another ………. Had to chain my bike up and get a taxi home!
There are also some good boozers up toward ainley top! The last time i went to one i went in for a pint and ended leaving my car there and walking home to Fixby near the golf club - had to walk through these fields and for some reason i remember climbing on an electricity pillon! I was very worse for ear and unfortunatly could only remember it retrospectively: In otherwords i didn’t know i was there!
Yep, the teasing by Obama re his Veep is becoming very irritating, even from this side of the pond. I actually wonder whether he picked someone earlier but for some reason changed his mind, e.g. skeletons in cupboard or whatever.
327. ear = wear
326- Zogby isn’t Republican-leaning, although I can’t account for any particular folks who see him that way. He made his fame in the 1996 presidential election, when he came closer to the actual result than any of the other major polling firms. His brother, John Zogby, is a Democrat and founder of the Arab American Institute. In 2004, pollster James Zogby predicted Kerry would win.
317. Evening Socrates. I was wondering how, as a Conservative, you felt about Obama’s seven houses ad?
316: thanks, ChrisD. My amendment is coming back at Report Stage in October in a slightly different form - I’m putting the duty on the Secretary of State rather than the individual GP to ensure that the specified information (on survival rates, quality of life, treatment, etc.) is avialable. In that form it’s gained the support of Patricia Hewitt, who as former SoS and a leading pro-choice MP carries a good deal of weight, and it’s retained the suport of pro-life MPs, so I’m hopeful it will pass. Note that all the controversial votes were free for both major parties (not sure about the LibDems).
325: Percy: “The camera crews were photographs smiling organically.” Er…would you care to develop this concept?
319. I haven’t listened to NPR, but seeing that you claim MSNBC (of Lou Dobbs fame) as similarly left-wing to Soviet Union propaganda, I’m going to have to take your description with a pinch of salt.
Incidentally, I’d agree the New York Times is intentionally liberal. But it’s no more liberal than the Wall Street Journal is conservative - it employs Karl Rove as a columnist for God’s sake.
And “tilt” on Fox? It’s tilted to the point of being outright vertical! The liberals on it are usually either ones that agree with the conservative position on the issue at stake, or are Marxist/environmentalist/black nationalist loonies designed to show how “crazy” liberals are.
I’m sure there are individual cases of bias from certain reporters, but it’s clearly not a deliberate strategy like on Fox. The problem is US conservatives don’t believe anything can be balanced. You’re either a conservative or a crazy left-winger. It’s the hard right-wing point of view, black or white, “with us or against us”. They are ideologically programmed not to see a middle ground.
323. Hackles aren’t up! I just reckon a 25-point gap is near impossible to make up against an incumbent in a year so favourable for the Democrats.
PS Apologies for the frequent typos - different keyboard from usual.
Interesting article HenryG. I know that I have at times been critical of Cathy Jamieson, and often refer to the hilarious sketches that the Scottish football focused comedy “only an excuse” do on her.
And despite the fact that she apparently hates their portrayal of her as the Tmax/Primark bargain loving shopaholic, it is in many ways a huge compliment. IMHO, she has a much higher profile among ordinary Scots than the other two candidates in the contest, but whether that carries any weight in the SLP remains to be seen.
327. It is bizarre to see someone (two people, actually) on here naming pubs I know very well!
It’s a bit late tonight to argue this in detail, but someone, I believe it was our resident French Canadian, made the point recently that it will be exceedingly difficult (and unlikely) for Obama to be elected POTUS should he fail to capture Ohio. The more I look at the numbers, the more sense this appears to make.
It would be good to hear others’ views, particularly from a betting perspective. On the face of it, I am tempted to sell all my odds-on bets on Obama, averaging around 1.55/1 and substitute these with an evens bet on the Democrats winning Ohio. Nevada is a similar case in point, although it has nothing like the political clout of Ohio.
327. Emily Moor? I think I knew her - usually gave a good reception?
336 Hi Matt!
On the US election, this is a real eye opener for those who think the republicans have no chance:
The turnout in 2006 was below 30% according to this for the senate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election,_2006
For the house it was under 35% according to this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_2006
What does this mean looking at the results, quite a bit of split -ticket voting plus in a year when the Democrats were motivated to vote and Republicans demoralised, turnout was much down on presidential election years. It may always be the case but the gap especially on the house between Democrat and republican are not that great IMO.
Correction house turnout: 36.8 %
338 Yes, she was once the tallest man-made structure in Western Europe, or so I was told.
326. They’re almost universally phone calls, either by people or by automated call. And the vast majority of them only do landlines, which might bring some distortion as more people are cell phone only these days - especially in such a young-old split in the electorate this time round. I’m not sure about bias of each pollsters, but Zogby has been one of the less accurate ones. There’s a good rating system of their past success on 538 in the FAQ I think.
331. I think there’s room to attack McCain on not knowing how many houses he has, but I think it’s petty to attack him just for owning them, which was the emphasis the ad had.
337. I’ve said for a while this election is almost certainly down to Ohio & Michigan. McCain needs both, Obama needs one - he could certainly win without Ohio by taking Kerry + New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado.
336. Yes me too. I’m beginning to think quite a lot of PB posters live near me in Morley. Does Morris Dancer?
When is this PB Northern Wing social going to take place? London London was on the case was he not?
332
Support of Paticia Hewitt! LOL God help us!
336. Sadly in some pubs they know my order: Two Fosters! It saves time going back to the bar when you are a lone drinker! To be honest though i only drink in the town centre boozers, it is usually food or a family outing in the others! It would be amusing if some of us had spoken to each other previously without realising!
343 Agreed, who would criticise Roger (whatever happened to him btw) for the various properties he owns in the UK and France, or indeed Mr Huhne who, I recall owned around 6 at the last count.
333- I see that any further discussion is pointless since I’m programmed to not see the middle ground. Anyway, I’ll forge on tilting at windmills. Balance is possible but the majority of media don’t provide it. I’m not sure it’s even desirable to advocate for balance within a newspaper or television channel since that inevitably provides an incentive for the partisans at that paper or channel to dissemble their partisanship. It’s much better to have the partisanship overt (as we do here) and let the readers/viewers make their own informed decisions.
But I won’t let you get away with simply discrediting all conservatives as unworthy of credibility when they call attention to media bias. It’s the oldest trick in the book to discredit those who disagree with you as crazies, thus relieving yourself of any need to address the question they raise.
And the endless obsession of the left with Karl Rove is truly amusing. I don’t think anyone has been credited with more horrifying and mystical powers since Rasputin. You should really stop attempting to portray him as some fearsonme mythological beast of old. He was just a clever political strategist who managed to help get a guy you hate elected as U.S. President.
345. I used to live in Morley about 100 yards from the stump cross: Alden Court! Only stayed there 6 months as a horrible bloke who voted BNP gave me a load of abuse! Plus i occasionally went into Asda shit faced and bought loads of bollocks i could do without!
347 Whatever happened to the Northern PB.com party, planned by Leeds based London London? I don’t recall him being on here for ages - maybe I should send him an email.
332.Delighted to hear that Nick and wish it every success.
On your point about the most controversial bits of the Bill being on a free vote for all, sorry, I don’t think that really happened. I believe there were attempts to pressure MP’s on both sides of the debate, especially on the issue of the abortion limit. I remember ConHom threatening to list the individual voting intentions of all the MP’s in my party, and I know there was similar arm twisting going on in your party.
Its a strange position that we are now in, when we have highly trained staff in two different parts of a hospital having to use their skills to reach an entirely different outcome on a foetus at the same gestational period.
How do you separate the scientific and moral implications of that one?
351. I would still be up for it! Guest speaker Nick Palmer MP & Maggie Thatcher fan!
347 Fosters? Isnt that like drinking water?
333- Out of curiosity, Socrates, in which U.S. state are you residing? I’m not trying to track you down for dark purposes, I’m just more curious about the milieu in which you find yourself which may be shaping how you see the U.S.
353. I just re-read that: two different people! Nick of course is not a Maggie Thatcher fan!
354. Well - it is only about 4% - stops you from doing silly things! I used to go into an all bar ne in Leeds and they had this strong German beer 6%! I always regretted it!
Better to be happy and in control than legless and an arse!
349. Ok, fair enough. Prove your case. Tell me who are the huge Democratic partisans at CNN and MSNBC? I can think of Olbermann and that’s it. And can you give me an example of a media source you think IS even-handed and balance?
To be honest, I disagree with the fairness doctrine as I think it’s impossible to implement. But don’t pretend the channels that try to be balanced are the other side just so you can pretend Fox et al are reasonable news sources.
And I’m not obsessed with Karl Rove. But I just think the appointment of a the most gutter type of spin doctor as a leading opinions columinist shows the depth to which the Wall Street Journal has sunk since Murdoch took over.
351. I’ll organise one in Liverpool if yer loike?
I need an idea of costs…
New Rasmussen poll for New Mexico :
McCain 41% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election
353 MTF, previously of my own Parish, now resides in or near Crawley in West Sussex does he not?
355. Illinois is my main location in the US.
356 and vice versa!
I pretty much dont like anything Nick Palmer stands for, and I like even less the way he attempts to spin his viewpoint.It needs to be challenged….. ICM Nick?? still hoping the rest of the polls are rogues….
Glenrothes campaign update
SNP Candidate to be announced 22 August
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2430969.0.Local_councillor_expected_to_be_SNP_Glenrothes_candidate.php
I think Nick might be right about Kaine. There doesn’t seem much point stoking speculation only to dash it within a few days (actually, there doesn’t seem to be much point stoking the speculation anyway, but that’s a different matter). I’ve had a modest bet on him and laid Biden, who is still favourite. I notice that McCain’s odds have come in to 2.8 since yesterday from nearly 3.0. There’s still probably some overall value there, although I can see him drifting during the Democratic convention so now might not be the time to get most advantage.
351. I’m up for a do in West Yorks. Suggest Ave it as guest speaker.
361 in that general area… correct PFP, so liitle Youngs ordinary to be had, save at Plumpton… I still have my tie somewhere as a result of having it signed by all the Youngs landlords. Do they still offer it>?
363. Exactly - clash of the titans!
362- Hmmm, practically the backyard of my home state of Wisconsin. Chicagoland is and interesting realm with a beautiful downtown, horrifying surrounding urban ring, and endless stretches of suburbanite dwellings beyond. And then there’s corn country, if you ever leave that vast Chicagoland area.
366. The more the merrier!
365 David - Laying Biden seems a smart move. There’s £63 available at 2.58, which strikes me as a ridiculously short price for anybody in this contest, regardless of what you think of the Kaine rumours.
366. Maybe i should invite the ral Martin Day! He of course will have to sleep inyhe bath!
369. I know the cornfields well, having spent a year in Champaign.
359 Rod - As I suggested to London London, in order to attract a decent turnout (minimum around 20), it would probably need to be close to both the M62 and M6 (in his case the M62 and M1). Although I and hopefully others would be prepared to put a little extra into the pot, a budget of around £10-£15 per head sounds about right to include pub room hire costs and eats, with a cash bar - preferably Friday evening or on a Saturday/Sunday lunchtime.
354. Q. How do you get to Cockfosters?
A. Get the Poms to brew it?
Wasn’t Fosters compared to making love in a punt?
374. Yes - Ainley top?
354 cockfosters is at the North eastern end of the picadilly line (in dark blue on the map)
http://www.bulgarianlondon.com/bg_lon/bg/images/tube_map.gif
click on the map to enlarge
371 Clearly, something is driving Biden’s price down and keeping it down - I’m now narrowly all green, at last, on this market and I’m all done - it’s just become too tedious.
sorry 377 was to 375
Here’s my take on the situation (note: I have money on Lieberman, Rice, Huntsman, Sanford and Ford Jr).
http://politicaltipster.com/2008/08/21/veepstakes-my-final-take/
374. And possibly just a stone’s throw from a mainline station?
A famous political venue, even? (I have a place in mind)
How much did the NLC cost all told?
381. Sounds interesting where is that then?
367 Hadn’t realised you were lurking MTF - Youngs still to be found in Sussex - probably worth studying their website.
Fullers much more in evidence - may I commend one of their own pubs - The White Horse in Pulborough, a great location, with great ale and grub. A good trip out for you with Mrs Fan at the weekend.
382. Aha, secret for the time being…
But since it’s Capital of Culture year, Liverpool would be an ideal place to host the northern bash. You’d be surprised at what we’ve got to offer…
381 You’d need to check that with Mike S. The most recent event, i.e. the BBQ, was I believe unsponsored and cost the punters around £20 per head. Whether this covered the costs, I know not.
384. Not Harold Wilson’s hotel of preference by any chance?
http://www.mydd.com/
obama vp announcement coming very soon apparently
385.
So are you saying about £400 in total was coughed-up, PfP?
Who would carry the shortfall, if any?
386. Well, that’s one possibility. There are plenty of others…
385. Surely some Papers would like to attend: In yorkshire for instance the Torkshire post! I am sure that some no-poster politicians might attend if asked in the right way!
There’s nothing to say about politics anymore. The lunatics have taken over the asylum (and I don’t just mean Boris). The Edinburgh festival is entertaining and if ChrisD from Aberdeen is around I’d recommend the book ‘Corvus’ as an antidote to some very dull politics.
386 ….adopting suitable nasal whine…. “No, I think I made that clear at the Brighton Conference” (with apols to Mike Yarwood).
3*0. Sorry ment Yorkshire Post not Torkshire! Typing too fast!
392.
391. Roger - Long time no see!
389. I’m up for a bash in Liverpool. Give us Tories a chance to convert some of the socialists over there. Would be great if it coincided with the Tigers taking 3 points of either of the local teams (ok that bit’s my fantasy).
380. I have as much chance of being Republican VP as Giuliani.
391 No sooner the word……. welcome back Roger!
395. Is there a Labour/Tory or LD conference in Blackpool this year?
391.Hi Roger, you have been missed. I will look into that recommendation, thanks.
373- University of Illinois, then, I’m guessing. Good law school there. They beat my moot court team in the final round of competition when I was competing back in my law school days (although we deserved to win, of course)!
I gave up watching the major networks a long time ago on anything other than a sporadic basis for many reasons, including disgust with the thinly-concealed partisanship, growth of alternative sources such as the internet, but mostly a lack of time (I’m always at work, but not always working!). The usual suspects for years were characters like Cronkite, Rather, Jennings, Couric, Williams, and then Matthews, Olbermann, and a vast array of nobodies who have assimilated the groupthink. One of my all-time favorite quotes from one of the legendary supposed even-handed, fair talking heads was from Jennings, who was evening anchor for ABC for decades. When the Republicans won back Congress in 1994, he opined that the American voters had “thrown a temper tantrum.” These people were the only sources of news for Americans for decades, always masquerading as fair and unbiased. Rush Limbaugh and then Fox News exploded on the scene because there was such a strong latent desire to hear the other side that people knew existed but which never received a fair hearing. Now, at least, alternative viewpoints are accessible, but for the passive or uneducated consumer of news, they are still far more likely to receive their information from a left-wing propagandist than in an even-handed manner.
By the way, check out NPR sometime. All you have to do is turn on your radio and you’ll find it. You’ll think you died and went to socialist heaven!
O T CNN says that the vp announcement is expected “any time now”. They ere beginning to sound a bit bored…
401. They have strung it out far - far too long!
Where is NickP (Potential guest speaker!)- seems to have gone quite: Hope it is not me!
Peter from Putney: Do you know of the Shepards arms or Cowcliffe Liberal club?
From Drudge: MCCAIN OFFICE IN DENVER RECEIVES ENVELOPE WITH WHITE POWDER AND DEATH THREAT…
400. Well I’m a bit busy right now, so I’ll match the names to faces and respond at a later point - probably over the weekend.
391. You are missed Roger. Do come back more often.
I’m up for a PB meet up in the midlands or north (not too far north though)
352: thanks, Chris. The votes were certainly free in the sense that the whips didn’t express any kind of preference, and split themselves on each vote. Supporters of each side canvassed colleagues to persuade them, but that seems to me OK - we’re all supposed to be listening to each others’ arguments. When I said I was thinking of voting for a reduction to 22 weeks, a pro-choice colleague asked me to read a paper listing arguments against a reduction. I read it, wasn’t convinced, and said so - she said, “That’s a pity, have another read and think some more before you decide.” Fair enough, surely? Some of the outside groups on both sides expressed themselves more forcefully, but that’s nearly always counter-productive - the ’sod off’ instinct is triggered (in me, anyway).
404. The last thing we need on the day of Obama’s veep announcement.
402: Martin, I’ve been kidnapped by Maggie Thatcher Fan and being forced to read the works of her ladyship. It’s a cruel fate.
409. Sounds nasty Nick! Hope he hasn’t made you listen to “we are a grandmother” or the one from the falklands war! A nasty business!
383
I have been there. Highly recommended!
409
You might actually learn something instead of postulating a load of tosh in support of Gordon Brown!
412. A bit harsh on Nick! I should imagine he has a cellar where he plays darts with a picture of GB over the dart board!
413 In the centre not above.
411 It would seem our paths have often crossed.
414. Of Course! Bet he is a crack shot as well!!!
re 314 Kaine price still lengthening. Avoids the temptation of laying off at least.
415 but never at the same time!
402 Nick Palmer - “I’ve been kidnapped by Maggie Thatcher Fan and being forced to read the works of her ladyship.”
I’m so pleased. Is it too much to hope that you will now be in a position to correct your colleagues on the Left when they deliberately misrepresent her “There is no such thing as society” quote and claim that it meant the precise opposite of what she actually said?
Mmmmm - Katy Kay on Newsnight!
Interesting! The web is obviously a real tool in the US election! How come it has never become such a tool here? After all the uK has a high penetration of online users!
400
“check out NPR sometime. All you have to do is turn on your radio and you’ll find it. You’ll think you died and went to socialist heaven!”
I would think Socrates would like NPR - its a bit like Radio 4 in style. Socialist heaven would be Pacifica Radio (WBAI in New York).
404. Cheney again!
420- Maybe because elections are sprung upon you (or unsprung) so suddenly that there’s no time to ramp un an American-scale array of election coverage.
419. Actions speak loader than words i am afraid! The miners, steel workers will always sympathise with the old script on her. Would they have survived under Labour? Unlickely!
423- ramp “up”…
391.Roger, just checked out that book on Amazon, always been fascinated by magpies for some reason. The only bird I saw in my garden that took on my cat Jasper and won! No mean feat when half the neighbouring canine population are terrified of him.
407.Nick, I was really hopefully that common sense would prevail and the limit would be reduced to 22 weeks. I don’t fall into either the anti abortion or pro-choice at any cost lobby despite being a female catholic, just want to see a good old common sense approach to where we are now with scientific advances and the moral dilemma that poses.
421. Just noticed that I can listen to NPR in the UK. I hope it lives up to S&S’s hype. Socialist heaven here I come.
423. No, it goes beyond that IMO! For instance the fund raising side! I know that fundraising is different here but it seems neutered compared to the US!
388 Rod - I believe that around 40 attended the last NLC bunfight, so at £20 a head, around £800 was presumably raised. I would imagine, though, that the room/balcony hire was very much expensive there than would be the case elsewhere.
The only sure way of avoiding a shortfall is to sell the tickets up front, which is a little tricky - it should however be possible to establish a fairly accurate number of those likely to attend, as I suggested a minimum of 20 would be required to make it worthwhile and I, for one would be prepared underwrite some of the costs to a limited extent, if one or two others were prepared to do likewise do likewise, thereby hopefully avoiding uncovered shortfalls.
Whilst a Liverpool venue sounds intersting, I’m not sure it would tap into the Yorks and Midlands PB base as well as, say, Manchester or Leeds, from a motorway link and distance perspective.
421- Maybe “secular humanist heaven” would have been more descriptive.
428. Blogging is under-developed in general. The prevalence of the BBC is one factor, just look at the stats for the number of hits it gets compared to other news sources.
403 Martin - No, I don’t know either of these establishments and to be honest, I tend to avoid Liberal Clubs.
427- It sounds like you’re getting some religion!
433. Right now there’s an interview with someone who did something with the press for Reagan and Bush. Yet to hear a call for armed revolt of the proletariat.
429. I am sure a star perfomer on the political scene could be tempeted! This would boost “turnout” big time! I will lok into it tommorow!
Night all!
432. Fair enough!
434- Aux armes, citoyens!
I’ve put up a Continuation Thread, just to ease pressure on the server - still no word on Obama’s VP
Good to see you back here, Roger!
Cheers
Morus
429. Thanks, PfP. I’ll make some enquiries about available dates, etc, and report back here. Perhaps we could run a poll to gauge definite interest for the available dates?
I know from experience that these things don’t happen unless someone organises it first! I’ll give it a go…
Re Morley.
Grew up in Wakefield. Am back there about every six weeks. [If we are talking 'Balls' I know more Outwood than Morley].
435. I don’t think we could afford Derek Hatton, Martin…