What if the “golden rule” was proved right?
August 21st, 2008
Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority?
One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied.
This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position.
So the seat projections above are what happens when you input the overnight poll data into the Anthony Wells seat calculator. The outcome is quite dramatic - a Conservative majority of 260 seats.
The new survey is from Ipsos-MORI - the pollster which set up a major review of its methodology following the London Mayoral result. This took a couple of months and now involves only doing voting intention polls by phone, continuing to report headline figures taking only those certain to vote, and applying special measures to counteract the effect of public sector workers being over-sampled.
The results for August with comparisons on a month ago are: CON 48% (+1): LAB 24% (-3): LD 17% (+2). This is the second biggest lead for the Conservatives in several decades. The biggest, 26%, came in a YouGov poll after the May elections.
The certainty to vote issue is very important - without this filter the pollster would be reporting a Tory lead of 14% based on a split of CON 42% to LAB 28%. MORI always find that Labour do better on this calculation because party supporters have been shown at election after election to be less likely to turnout than Tories.
Arrangements on PB for the next fortnight: I’m off on holiday to the Pyrenees while Morus is heading off to Denver for next week’s Democratic convention. Paul Maggs is not available. So the normal pattern of postings might not operate and there could be longish periods when the moderation box is not cleared. I have a few articles which were “prepared earlier” and we will try to put up continuation threads if discussions get much longer than 500 comments. What a time to be away? I wonder what changes there be in the political world when I return on September 7th?
Coming up on PB: Later today, Obama running mate developments permitting, I will be publishing HenryG Manson’s betting guide on the Scottish Labour leadership contest. His tips might be worth following and there could be money to be made!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
IMPORTANT BETTING WARNING (sorry for shouting!)
Apparently some people are sending text messages, spoofed to appear as though they are from the Obama campaign, that claim they are the Veep announcement. Some say Clinton, some say Gore.
Be very, very careful unless you have this corroborated by an official source.
Idiots - this could cost people a lot of money.
Ann Cryer, MP for Keighley since 1997 when she followed her husband who was killed in a car smash, is retiring at the General Election.
re 1. Agreed - idiots. But having kept us waiting for so long is it any wonder that spoofs start to appear? Anybody can “forge” a test message.
Others -2
This shows the stupidity of applying “GB” data over three different political systems. Look at the polls in Scotland. Does anyone seriously believe that “others” (which includes the SNP) are going to LOSE seats?
3. “Kept us waiting for so long”… How long does it normally take? I can’t really remember.
Morning! Interesting Poll! The Tory lead is as big as the Labour vote!
In some senses it is worse for Labour than this as the *SNP gains* are not factored in! If you combined this new poll with the poll conducted for the SNP recently; you are talking ball park figures of Labour 110 seats! I tried to merge the two sets of data a few days ago and Labour came out well below 150 seats on that basis.
There certainly is a movement for change in the UK; does the mid summer holiday rule apply to this i.e. Normally more favourable to Labour?
Here we are again my mash together of polls using the most recent Scottish one and the overnight one!
A Tory Majority of 240! I have been favourable in weighting to Labour in the English Regions! It is probably even worse for them: The Scottish dimension really does warp the whole picture!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=48&LAB=24&LIB=17&ScotCON=13&ScotLAB=25&ScotLIB=14&ScotNAT=44&NorthCON=38&NorthLAB=36.5&NorthLIB=17&NWestCON=41&NWestLAB=34&NWestLIB=15&YorksCON=47&YorksLAB=28.5&YorksLIB=14&WalesCON=38&WalesLAB=29.5&WalesLIB=13&WalesNAT=12.6&WMidsCON=50&WMidsLAB=26&WMidsLIB=13.4&EMidsCON=51&EMidsLAB=27.5&EMidsLIB=13.6&AngliaCON=60&AngliaLAB=17.5&AngliaLIB=15.5&SWestCON=55&SWestLAB=9&SWestLIB=26.6&LondCON=48&LondLAB=25.5&LondLIB=16.3&SEastCON=62&SEastLAB=12.1&SEastLIB=19.9®ion=All+GB+seats+majority-sorted&seat=–Show+all–
This is the Scottish data:
http://www.snp.org/node/14146
If Labour MPs had any sense at all they would go back to Blair on bended knees and beg for his forgiveness and return.
Stark truth is that wipeout beckons with Brown in charge and there’s no-one else in the Parliamentary Labour Party who can do a better job.
At these sort of levels there is also no reason for the ‘new’ and ‘old’ factions to hang together any longer either as both begin to fight for future control of what is left.
The LDs, bizarrely, could easily be second biggest party in the polls by this time next year. Scarey thought!
6 If you are using that Scottish data you are wasting your time Martin , those are Holyrood voring intentions .
8. Oh- dear!
5: Labour MPs are fast becoming an endangered species!
Surely one needs to be saved for public display as a warning to future generations.
Dangling from a M4 Buslane lampost perhaps?
10. Get the taxidemiests in! They could have “one” mounted and put on a H of C plinth!
About —> 538.com — the Scenario Analysis section
———
In the last thread, I wrote this:
According to 538.com, Obama has less than 18% chances of winning the Elections if he loses Ohio.
Then, a poster called JAMES (a real prick) wrote and rewrote and rewrote that I was “mischaracterising what the 538 figures show”.
He said the figures do not “show your prospects if a certain event happens”.
Now, the section is titled SCENARIO ANALYSIS, and under the said title, there is a list of events.
It is a simulation, clearly, in which Obama wins only 17.XX% percent of the time he happens to lose Ohio.
So how can my “characterization” of the figures be wrong?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
—-
You are a bully, James.
And a moron (coze in the figures, there is nothing about a margin of win or loss of Ohio…)
Go back to DailyKos where you belong…
I’m really amused looking at todays paper headlines: After doing
an internet search i see everything Brown does is undermined by the facts. For instance Brown saying he can win the next election combined with the overnight poll! Brown saying that he is going to help families; whilst the wholsale gas price has risen another 15% on news of a leak! Then their is more talk about the Brown / Miliband split!
For those commuseurs of political maschinations i don’t think this autumn will fail to dissapoint!
12. Well the Daily Telegraph has an interesting piece saying that 9% of voters have a problem about Obama’s colour! The sad thing about this is those 9% of voters will be more motivated to vote because basically they don’t want a black man in the white house. The polls have also tipped in McCain’s favour: Clinton must be well peved! So close but so far!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/2592093/John-McCain-topples-Barack-Obamas-poll-lead.html
Interestingly enough i wonder whether Obama will get a poll bounce after convention?
Anthony Wells’ “Others” figure of 10 looks decidedly odd. The latest YouGov Scottish Westminster poll had SNP 36% vs Labour 29%. Look at Electoral Calculus Scottish pages for a better idea.
14 - Of course he will, wall to wall coverage for a week and everyone comparing another pedestrian speech to Pericles funeral oration in an act of mass fawning. He will bounce.
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
15. Yes I should have done that poll using those figures! I will have another go!
17. That’s an interesting site - Thanks!
538.COM
…when the election is close… McCain has appeared to develop a slight advantage in the electoral math. There are several states on our map that are colored light pink, meaning that they tip very slightly to the Republicans; these include Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Montana and Nevada, in each of which Obama has better than a 25 percent chance of winning, but less than a 50 percent chance.
There are a fairly large number of scenarios, then, where Obama comes tantalizingly close to a victory, but loses several different battleground states by mere points or fractions thereof. This dynamic is fairly fluid, however, and if Obama were able to get a toehold somewhere like Colorado or Virginia, it could quickly reverse itself.
Does all of this mean that you should short Obama in the futures markets, which still show him as roughly a 60:40 favorite?
Not necessarily. Our model accounts for the topline results of the polls in as comprehensive a way as is possible, but it does not account for nonpolling factors such as turnout and ground game, macroeconomic conditions, or the probability of certain future events (like the conventions) tending to favor one or another candidate.
O/T, but going back to last night’s thread, wouldn’t there be a risk that if Russia attacked Poland, or the Ukraine, it might very well get beaten? I doubt if either country would be a pushover, militarily, and the Russian army is hardly what it was 50 years ago.
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
BETFAIR (last price matched) : 62.1 / 35.7 %
INTRADE (last price matched) : 59.2 / 38.1 %
538.com (last price matched) : 47.9 / 52.1 %
McCain rocks!!!
21. Interesting point - The US. will defend & the UK will also in the event of Attack as poland are in Nato. I should imagine Polish military equipment is better than Russian now. Poland joined Nato in 1999!
22 –Erratum
538.com (projection) : 47.9 / 52.1 %
Following today’s Ipsos-MORI poll (and using a more recent all-Scotland poll than I was using previously), I project:
Con 386 (+178) [+2]
Lab 199 (-147) [+5]
LD 31 (-36) [-3]
SNP 8 (+2) [-4]
PC 5 (+3) [nc]
Oth 21 (nc) [nc]
Con majority 122 [+4]
Mike Smithson - latest veep rumour is good news for you - Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot is hearing from many Dems that it is Hillary.
I got to give it to Obama for keeping the rumours flying! we had Sat campign stop in IN, then succession discussions for the statehouse in VA, now plenty of senior Dems telling NRO it’s Hillary….
21. The poles have some interesting equipment both Mig 29’s and F16’s!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Armed_Forces
Has Al-Beeb seen the light…?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7573432.stm
And more worrying EU-led, ID-card-centric reform?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7573004.stm
I draw your attention to the last three paragraphs:
But there have been concerns that it is no longer up to the job of providing reliable data on which to base important public spending decisions.
The ONS is looking at other methods of counting the population, such as a compulsory register of addresses.
In May, MPs on the Treasury select committee said the 2011 census should be the last where population is counted through the collection of census forms.
So the census still works in the ‘States, but does not conform to Europe’s faith in socialist-control of the masses? Time to leave Europe behind. May I nominate Nick Palmer for the M4 bus-lane role…?
29. Now - Now! I can think of far better candidates to string up from M4 lamp posts! For instance irrating people like Angela Eagle or that stupid female MP from blackpool who sprang to Brown’s defence recently.
Hillary tightening rapidly on Betfair. Now at 3/1
Surely Clinton would be the worst candidate for VP - she would overshadow Obama plus invigorate all the anti-Clinton vote? Indeed the 9% rasist vote & the missoginist vote combined must be quite something! Democrats must be sucidal!
22. McCain is not yet favourite to win, as the betting shows. He may have an current projected advantage according to 538 but as with the UK seats market, there are reasons for the discrepancy between current projections and the betting.
One of the main ones is spending and money. McCain is spending money at the moment (in part because of funding rules) at a much faster rate vis a vis Obama than will be the case in the Autumn. Providing that money’s well spent it should have some impact on the polls but the question punters need to ask is ‘will that be long-lasting?’. The answer is almost certainly no. Once Obama’s spending kicks in, I’d expect him to pull back all his current deficit and open up his own lead. There are also likely to be questions about how well a septugenarian will hold up to two months of really hard campaigning. Perhaps a slip (ill-tempered snap?) based on tiredness is the most likely consequence.
Of course, Obama could and will make his own mistakes, and the biggest risk he currently seems to be running is a hubristic campaign which could turn voters off, nullifying his funding advantage. Still, events will have a large part to play in the next two and a half months, and the expectation is that they will favour the Democrat.
Uk has 17 Gold’s now! John Major must be cheerfull today! His National Lottery enabled some of the talent to be unleashed!
32 re Clinton wrong (Martin Day).
Clinton is the best choice, particularly now the race looks tight. She shores up the Democrat base. Ask Labour activists here what happens when your supporters stay at home on election day.
Obama and Clinton also complement each other’s campaigning styles. Since Obama’s appeal is partly that he is above the fray, he needs a streetfighter to do his dirty work.
35. I know what you are saying but i think it is a Zero sum game, when your VP plus Bill overshadow you and your selection motivates the otherside to vote for their candidate!
#34
We have to assume that Gormless and the MacBairns are still recovering from jet-lag. Let’s hope they take the rest of the Beijing-day off, and Phillips Idowu secures third-place in the medal-table with number eighteen!
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 45% .. Lab 25.8% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 11.2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 398 seats .. Lab 165 .. LibDem 51 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 146.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
35. John L: Clinton is the best choice, particularly now the race looks tight. She shores up the Democrat base. Ask Labour activists here what happens when your supporters stay at home on election day.
If Obama’s worrying about his core vote in this election, he’s in deep trouble.
A core vote strategy is only a good idea when it’s the difference between a defeat that can be built on and a wipeout, such as the Tories in 2005. If you have any hope of winning, the core vote should be with you anyway.
New CBS/NY Times national poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/20/opinion/polls/main4368403.shtml
New NBC News/WSJ National poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080820_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
OK,
My prediction using Martin Baxter, with a suitable adjustment for Scotland only:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=48&LAB=24&LIB=17&ScotCON=18&ScotLAB=27&ScotLIB=13&ScotNAT=39&NorthCON=38&NorthLAB=36.5&NorthLIB=17&NWestCON=41&NWestLAB=34&NWestLIB=15&YorksCON=47&YorksLAB=28.5&YorksLIB=14&WalesCON=38&WalesLAB=29.5&WalesLIB=13&WalesNAT=12.6&WMidsCON=50&WMidsLAB=26&WMidsLIB=13.4&EMidsCON=51&EMidsLAB=27.5&EMidsLIB=13.6&AngliaCON=60&AngliaLAB=17.5&AngliaLIB=15.5&SWestCON=55&SWestLAB=9&SWestLIB=26.6&LondCON=48&LondLAB=25.5&LondLIB=16.3&SEastCON=62&SEastLAB=12.1&SEastLIB=19.9®ion=All+GB+seats+majority-sorted&seat=–Show+all–
This will give the Tories a 244 majority, with the Nationalists on 40 all-told. It predicts four Tory seats in Scotland, and has Keith Vaz as the most southernly Labour MP outside of London and the West-Midlands.
My hunch is that a majority of 120 will be a stonking, realisable victory for DC. As posters have said before, placing a bet at 50-60 Tory majority (put, not lay?) seems a winner. But as a) I tend not to gamble, and b) we don’t know the date of the next election, I just don’t have the nuts to back my instinct…!
36 - I don’t think it is, it actually will unite the Dems completely. It also plays into change as it doubles down on Obama, the first black president and the first woman vice president. It sends out the message that it is all change at the White House not just a partial change.
29: Exciting life on pb.com - nobody’s proposed to string me up before! Before you do, fluffy, just a clarification of the (all-party!) Treasury committee view: I believe that they simply feel it’s cumbersome and antiquated to go trundling round every home counting heads like medieval King’s agents, and suggest using large-scale opinion polling instead - to find out census data such as N% being male and X% being of Polish origin, you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain. Sampling say 10,000 people anonymously would get accurate enough data without needing to pester everyone. I don’t think that even BannedHorse would find this a sinister proposal.
We already have a compulsory register of addresses for most adults, of course - it’s called the electoral register. The idea of using that is different from the Treasury committee one.
On topic, I wonder if MORI haven’t over-compensated for their earlier problems - only counting certains to vote AND discounting a proportion of public sector workers (while not correcting for other possible biases in a sample, say too many farmers or accountants) may be over-egging the pudding. But I agree with Mike that certainty to vote is really the key difficulty in prediction - I have lots of voters who say things like, “I’d like to vote for you and I won’t vote Tory but right now I’m not sure I want to support the Government”. What will they do in 2009/2010? I really don’t know, nor do they. Common sense suggests that some will and some won’t, and discounting them all is likely to be an overshoot.
I think that Hillary is a massive plus to the ticket. For a start she’s a fighter and knows how to play dirty - something that’s going to be really necessary against the senile war-monger. All the other potential VPs look tame in comparison.
People on here underestimate the feelings of a large number of women - particularly the baby boomer generation - who feel that Obama took the chance of having one of their gender in the White House away from them.
If indeed it is HRC then it explains the late announcement.
The choice will also make next week in Denver a unifying occasion which will give the party a good platform against the GOP - those people who gave us Iraq and under McCain would seem to want a lot more.
44 - My rule of thumb on canvass is to take 10% of your pledges and bin them as mis-canvassing. Of the don’t knows about 1/6 will actually end up voting for you so add them to your pile. If then when you add up your opponents votes you are broadly even in for and against terms then you should win through.
#44
Stringing-up? As in hanging?
Silly me, I must have mis-read the M4-gig. I thought that you’d be stuffed, and hung by you appendages.
You know, just like a puppet. You are a traitorous Labour MP aren’t you? [And what else would you expect from an English Democrat, Cadbury Roses?
]
re 44. Nick - I agree with you on MORI. I just wonder whether there are too many corrective factors in there.
The new public sector worker weighting is the firm’s answer to past vote weighting and quite a smart one. But having that element and only showing the 100 percenters might be going too far.
In previous polls the public sector factor has been quite significant and does tend to be much more supportive of Labour, if not Mr. Brown, than the rest of the electorate.
LS @ 39 re core vote. Picking Clinton is not a core vote strategy.
Again, in demographics as with campaigning style, she complements him. Clinton appeals to the base, while Obama picks up new voters, independents and even disillusioned Republicans.
And though Obama is not in deep trouble, the polls show he is no Usain Bolt: McCain has closed rapidly and may yet snatch the gold.
See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/todays-polls-820.html for example.
Betting. Forget what we think should happen: who will Obama choose? I have backed Clinton at prices from 3/1 and 10/1 which will do me for now. My view is that Hillary is about 50% likely, so strictly any price above evens is value.
47. The Poll though is on trend with other recent polls though? Added to which those have been in the summer Holidays - I am assuming many are coming back from Holidays now!
45. Your heart rules your head on this one IMO: Obama might be the candidate closest to your thinking & HRC may also bring weight to the ticket. Problem is HRC will bring more problems as a VP candidate than positives.
44. Have these voters been in the Labour box previously - that must be very worrying for you if they are. Even a mass abstention will catastrophically affect you - Blame it on Brown!
Once more our glorious sailors have bolstered our medal tally. Of course, we’d have 20 golds by now if the Curse of Brown hadn’t struck.
Still got strong hopes in the BMX and triple jump though.
The General Election is still too far away to call. Now it looks a nailed on certainty that the Tories will be the largest party, but there are still variables to consider.
The most important is: will Brown still be around, and if not, who will lead Labour?
I don’t think Labour can turn the oil tanker of public opinion around, but a new leader could either accelerate (through bloodshed and party splits) or decelerate (unity, and an end to really bad PR).
Those who bet on the Tories to win the next election the day before the last Conservative conference must be bloody happy.
I noticed Brown is in Afghanistan, hopefully he will delay going to the Olympics a bit longer so he does not jinx the UK medal prospects.
I bet a few Labour MP’s are hoping for a stray bullet to hit Brown while he is in Afghanistan! Horrible thing to say but…..
I wonder if Cameron will re-shuffle his team this autumn as Brown has said he will not. Cameron could still go ahead and say that he is preparing for govenrnment.
46: sounds right to me, James. What’s your involvement in elected polityics been, as a matter of interest?
As you’d expect from a Clintonite I’d like to see her chosen, and certainly the media narrative on RCP has shifted strongly that way, to the point that choosing a less-known figure risks looking something of a let-down - “now the name youi’ve all been waiting for - it’s John Doe!” Are American politicians better-known to the public than in Britain? for instance, will Joe Public outside Indiana really know who Bayh is? This piece from someone who clearly thinks Biden best summarises the Clinton case well:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/346742
A request to Jack W: thanks for reporting polls as they come in. Might it be possible to go a step further and let us know each time if it’s a survey or ‘registered’ or ‘likely’ voters? It makes a huge difference in Britain and seems likely to make at least some in the US - I’d assume Democrats tend to have more turnout difficulties, though Obama’s better-prepared ground operaiton might change that.
50 - I think that a Conservative victory is highly likely, I think others may correct me but I can’t remember in the last few years a more constitent lead in the polls opening up for one party at or around the same level.
Nick have you ever met HRC? Or Bill for that matter?
We’ve stuck some Dem vp prices back up at ladbrokes.
Currently
3/1 Bayh
3/1 Biden
3/1 Clinton
5/1 Kaine
8/1 Sebelius
12/1 Clark
47 If Mori produces outlying results then maybe it should be taken out of your ‘golden rule’ equation for the time being.
If it doesn’t, it shouldn’t.
The only real effect then is on morale. Partisans cling to the poll that tells them what they want to hear, even if the evidence says its likely to be giving some false hope. Its always ‘helpful’ to the debate if more than one pollster is reigning in the Tory lead.
Now Labour are down to Populus/Guardian ICM [when they aren't really bad too!]
53. Definatly looking like Tory Majorities to me.
55 shadsy. And Morus ??
55. 3/1 Clinton ? Some big money coming in ?
Mori’s new methodology — public sector weighting seems eccentric.
I’m uneasy about fixing sampling problems with weighting. ICM’s sampling by randomising final digits is guaranteed to oversample Labour supporters so they have to weight the life out of their results.
Mori uses “random digit dialling” according to its web site. Are there further details? It may be Mori is now over-correcting.
O/T on the olympics we now have more medals in total than in 1984 (now 39 then 37). 1984 was boycotted by the USSR iirc though. Discounting 1908 which is clearly an abberation when we got 146 medals in total mainly because in lots of events we were the only country competing then this is the third best medal haul ever. If we win 5 more medals of any colour it will be our best medal haul except for 1908!
The smell of deceipt hangs around Bill and Hillary.
Call me old fashioned but I like to wait to see people in office before they are proven to be liars [sorry - misspeakers].
Is Rod Crosby still predicting a hung parliment ?
I don’t think the Labour party has the stomach to remove Brown - they want him to go down carrying the can. The next war will be red on red.
Labour may annoy a section of the electorate who vote
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2429923.0.100_000_OAPs_could_lose_out_in_benefits_rules_reform.php
44.”and suggest using large-scale opinion polling instead - to find out census data such as N% being male and X% being of Polish origin, you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain.2
Nick, please don’t let your government wreck the present census format for future generations who will want to research their families.
62. I would be very surprised if Clinton was picked as VP - It would mean she was abandoning any prospect of being President. At least if Obama fails she can have a crack herself if she is not on the ticket.
Its the history of poll after poll after poll with huge leads that will be damaging within Labour ranks, I guess Nick Palmer will be clinging to ICM with the 15% Tory lead hoping that come the election 40/30 will produce a hung parliament.
There is a lot more dire economic news to come, irrespective of the drop in oil prices. We might even see a stagfation type rise in petrol prices at the pumps as the pound sinks against the dollar.
@62:
Christopher Hitchens’s book “No-one left to lie to” is a pretty devastating critique of what Obama deserves if he brings that foul, evil, manipulative, lying, vicious, corrupt, soulless harridan into shore up is dying campaign as part of some suicide bid to ensure Mac’s landslide victory.
I imagine Karl Rove will be rubbing himself with glee at the prospect of Obama’s making the most absurdly dimwitted political mistake of his career.
“Is Rod Crosby still predicting a hung parliment?”
Does Gabble still insist there’s no difference between passports and ID cards? Does Palmer continue to maintain the scheme will pay for itself?
Do NeoCons still equate every foreign leader they don’t like to Hitler?
Does Pope Benedict still practise Catholicism?
Do bears remain in the habit of defecating in sylvian settings?
68 - I think you are mistaken on this. It would make a landslide likely but for Obama not McCain.
67. I think GDP revisions are out today, the wholesale gas price has surged due to a pipe problem and unemployment is likely to get alot worse!
58. Morus 14/1.
You can’t be too careful at this stage, Jack.
re 55. Well Paddy Power still have 10-1 against Hillary -looks great value.
65. Actually that kind of survey methodology is used to construct the Labour Force Survey and has proved remarkably inaccurate at estimating ‘key’ numbers such as the % of workers of Polish origin.
That might be why Mr.Palmer and his chums are in favour of it, of course.
re 71 But Morus is Welsh - he just happens to know far more about US politics than just about everybody outside the Beltway.
@69:
Hillary Clinton is probably the most hated woman in America. She’s the GOP’s most powerful election winning machine.
The effect she’ll have on independents, centrists and Middle America, as they swing Mac to keep ‘the bitch’ one bullet away from power will be swift and devastating.
She will wipe out whatever modest gains Obama has made within weeks.
It will be a joy to behold.
Unfortunately, even though Obama is a vacuous shell of a man, I don’t think he’s that thick or desperate.
#66
Nick Palmer seeks to destroy the census so as to dilute the indigenous British identity! Whod’a thunk that…!
“you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain”
Bit pointless thinking NuLab’s going to rein in the Statism, don’t you say?
66 — what probabilities (and hence prices) do you attach to the various candidates?
Try putting numbers next to the names in shadsy’s post at 55 (but also add in A N Other).
This is always worth doing and can be instructive. The chances must add up to 1 (or 100 per cent): Obama will pick a running-mate. Often you find names you had ruled out need to be put back into play, otherwise the probabilities of the other choices are too high.
Let’s all have a bar-fight…!
http://www.order-order.com/2008/08/european-union-v-empire.html
Could be fun!
15. Stuart, this is why the SNP would lose a referendum if they ever called one:
http://tinyurl.com/6m5tpv
The Herald wrote a nice piece about Hoy winning all those golds for Team GB (and indeed, well done him!). Then the Scots Nats came on the site and started hurling abuse at Hoy, for daring to wave the Union Jack, calling Hoy’s dad a traitor, etc etc. Check the threads on the Herald for the rest of the week…
I particularly like this remark:
“The rest of the world won’t know if a Scot wins, as long as they are wrapped in the Broon Butcher’s Apron. Posted by: Donald Anderson, glasgow on 7:08am Wed 20 Aug 08″
For those that don’t understand the Nats mentality, the “butcher’s apron” is… the Union Jack. The flag of Hoy’s country. It’s a term generally used by extreme Irish republicans, but it now seems to have crossed the water.
What is remarkable is how the victim mentality of the Irish - somewhat more justified, historically - has so viciously infected the Scots Nats. This despite the fact that Scotland probably did more to expand the mighty British empire, per capita, than any other part of the UK. But maybe it isn’t so astonishing. Because Scottish nationalism is rooted, emtoionally, on a hatred and resentment of England.
This is why you will lose a referendum, Stuart. When it comes to an actual serious passionate debate, the rabid, nasty, anti-English element on your side (which is the hidden but beating heart of
Scottish Nationalism, so evident on these threads) will emerge into the light of day, in all its self-hating ugliness.
And then most Scots will think: Ugh, no thanks.
*test*
74 Everybody knows that neither Obama nor McCain are really US citizens and people are still backing them.
Come on Morus!
78. Might piss a few americans off with that intepretation of empire!
re 85. Shadsy - how much do you make if it is Morus - or Caroline Kennedy who was being mentioned last night.
82 - ‘philes vs ’sceptics, FT? That fight’d be over in under 5 minutes.
83. Big Chris Hoy (a Hearts fan) is proud of the Union Jack.
He’ll take the knighthood with honour and will ram the SNP coattail riding up Alex Salmonds tea towel holder with luck.
As I pointed out last night it’s the expected jobs-for-life MPs like Milburn (10.5k majority) who are going to wield the knife as with this sort of poll rating they are going to find themselves in ultra marginals if they manage to hold on at all. Perhaps Ave it is right and Tories win Bootle after all!
Mike enjoy your holiday. Didn’t the Miliband will-he-won’t-he speculation blow up the last time you were away?
Are we on track for a 240 seat majority? I don’t think so and not because of Mr Smithsons golden rule. I believe the generality of the polls and I suspect if there was an autumn election we might win big as predicted; but there won’t be an election till 2010.
Governments have all the levers of power at their diposal. I think Brown has a point when he says ‘what the people of Britain are concerned about is what’s happening to their mortgages, what’s happening to their gas and electricity bills, what’s happening to oil prices and petrol prices at the pumps. These are the issues they want us to address and look at. You will see us dealing with some of these issues when we come back in September.’
There will be a blur of initiatives and giveaways this autumn; basically paid for on borrowed money but there will probably be some totem ‘tax the rich’ gimmick unveiled at conference to please the left.
The BoE may ride to his rescue a bit, too. My bearish view on interest rates has been modifying somewhat, as it appears that house prices and retail sales *are* falling like a stone and now that the Euro is losing value against the dollar higher UK interest rates look out of the question, and we may even see rate cuts next year.
So mortgages and fuel/food prices might fall back a bit in ‘09 and although our recession will bite that year in terms of job losses and insecurity fears the sense of impending meltdown might fade a bit and in that circumstance I’d be surprised if Labour don’t pull some support back.
Add to that a very public love-in between Brown and Milliband (’it was all a construct of the media… he has always had my trust …. enjoys the full confidence of the PM bla bla..’) and by this time next year it may all look much closer.
82. Cute.
But a more viable medal comparison, as I said the other day, might be to lump together all the countries still ruled by the Queen, gawd bless ‘er - i.e. UK, Canada, Oz, NZ, and various outlying sunny places. Given that she DOES reign sovereign over these lands, they do constitute a valid political entity.
I think on that basis, Queenland. Or, ahem, “Greater Queen-of-England-land”, would be second, behind China. Beating the Yanks.
God Bless her Madge.
Do Miliband and his Blairite backers have the bottle to seriously challenge Brown for the leadership this Autumn? He threw down the gauntlet 3 weeks ago and if he doesn’t follow through now he’ll be badly tainted when Brown is thrown out (should he survive that long) after Labour is slaughtered at the next GE. Little David has already backed down once remember. Do it once more and it looks like he’s seriously lacking in backbone opening the way for a new generation, inc Purnell, to come to the fore in 2 years time.
91. That’s what I call a nightmare scenario.
91. Marcus - your description of “initiatives and giveaways” are exactly what people were expecting last autumn and last spring but Brown botched them both.
Why do you expect him to do a reasonable job this time ?
93. According to Baxter’s calculations on the MORI poll even James Purnell would lose his seat at the next election. If wiped out it will be David Miliband against Harriet Harman or Yvette Cooper. Pretty much no-one else is left.
87 I can’t really go in to absolute figures, Mike. It’s been a great betting heat and we’ve been very pleased with the business, but it’s not going to affect the share price. It might equate to one very poor horserace on a quiet afternoon, to be honest.
91. Brown just does not have luck on his side:
Everything Brown does is undermined by the facts. For instance Brown saying he can win the next election combined with the overnight poll! Brown saying that he is going to help families; whilst the wholsale gas price has risen another 15% on news of a leak! Then their is more talk about the Brown / Miliband split aka Nick Brown’s comments on Goergia!
I think you underestimate how dire things are for labour - they really are bad! 240 don’t look realistic but then again did Blairs 179 seat majority look realistic before 1997. I was shocked i can tell you but the writing was on the wall for years before. If Brown splurges money to try and buy votes it will backfire big time.
re 91 how can GB address the cost of mortgages - or is his supposed independence of the BofE not quite as independent as it seems.
91
The UK is still on course for a serious bout of stagflation. With a falling currency fuelling imported inflation, alongside slowdown/recession in most major sectors, the Bof E are very much between a rock and a hard place when it comes to setting interest rates.
Until the £1.4 trillion private debt and nearly £1 trillion public debt overhang unravels the situation only looks like getting much worse before it gets better.
UK plc and most of it’s residents will be living in drastically reduced circumstances in the next few years.
99. A shared equity scheme for 3 people in Sunderland. Or buying back 10 derelict houses in Manchester for “social housing”
The other interesting thing is fuel has gone down at the pumps in the last few weeks; Still high but not like it was a month ago.
Mike,
With reference to the current prediction which includes the LDs at 22 seats, ie -40, I would like to refer back to the tables you published (last week?) showing percentage votes in the last several general elections.
The percentage figures for the LDs were fairly stable over the whole period, ranging from 17-21%. And yet the number of our MPs has staedily increased over the same period. In fact we had a smaller % in the last two GEs than we had under Paddy Ashdown, but still our seats have steadily increased.
This suggests to me that the general predictions of the polls do not always translate smoothly into seats.
Beth
74 shadsy. WOW !!!!!!!!
Morus only 14/1 for Veep with Ladbrokes.
On the other hand …. is Morus really Evan Bayh ?? …. or indeed Hillary ?? …. Morus is big chums with Patricia the Punter - PB’s most famous cross dresser and Hillary is famed for her trouser suits !! …. Oh my god Morus is Hillary !!!!!!! Take that 14/1.
102. By this i mean Labour’s poll rating has continued to deteriot despite this good news.
Some more dire economic numbers this morning, this time for business investment - manufacturing and construction investment fell off a cliff in Q2, services investment down too.
Despite the methodological questions, MORI may well have their finger on the pulse. Come the autumn, as the nights darken, Labour’s poll ratings are going to plunge to underheard of depths.
106. Revised GDP should be interesting!
Morning all!
Shadsy, in all seriousness, I would like to place five of my English pounds on myself to be VPOTUS.
I am sure that, if elected, either a Constitutional Amendment can be passed, or I can get some photoshopped birth certicficate from some new-fangled ’state’ or something.
Would you mind e-mailing me a number I can call you on to place this bet? I fancy having a printed betting slip putting me at 14/1 for posterity! Sommat to show the kids one day…
I am, as always, at morus1516 [at] hotmail [dot] com .
#91
Oh, heck! SkyNews reporting that retial-sales grew in the last month and year-on-year!
And some bint from the British Retail Consortium has asked for the government to raise the minimum-wage, whilst average wages are slowing and the [Scottish] public-sector are striking for more money. Do they not teach Economics nae-more?
Stagflation and Sterling weakening hear we come. Will Rusty Brown bury the only worthy part of his legacy and scrap the independence of the BoE?
[Maybe he'll pass monetary policy to his chums at Northern Crock!]
83. There is a huge difference between anti-GB in a political sense and “anti-English” in a personal context. Most Scottish nationalists are the former but, in my experience, very few fall into the latter category.
Many Scots just don’t feel British. You can’t force them to be patriotic about the UK.
Are any more public-sector strikes lined up for the near future?
107. Nothing on the BoE website to suggest that revised GDP out today Martin ??
Depressed lefties should look here - this is how you run a country….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7573830.stm
112. It’s out tomorrow.
112. I read something in the Daily telegraph yesterday that suggested that numbers out today would suggest a downward movement in projectd GDP. Not a fall though!
113,114.
I would expect Broon would want nothing overshadowing the news that we have the cleverest children ever and 110% of candidates got a A+ in their GSCEs..
115.
The “New York Times” looks at rural Pennsylvania and the challenge facing Obama there :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/us/politics/21penn.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Is sending Brown to meet troops wise?
Knowing how jinxed the bloke is would you want to meet the guy and shake his hand if you have your Neck on the line each day?
House-building down 19% year-on-year!
Pop-quiz: Which of nEU-Labour’s targets will be hit by 2020: Our Kyoto+ environmental commitments or another 3 million houses…? *)
Great news for Phillips Idowu: Boris is in Beijing!
Shame McBroon is not flying in one of those old Nimrod MR2’s that he deigns only fit for those her serve for Her Majesty!
Chris A at 99 - The BoE won’t be helping Brown intentionally but I think they will split on the side of interest rate cuts to limit the fall economically; especially if they are nudged in this direction by the Govt.
It’s not that long ago that ’single figure inflation’ was an impressive achievement even for a few quarters.
When I was being taught economics in the 1970’s it was generally thought inflation of 4% (then nothing more than a hopeless economists dream) was perfect for an economy, much less than that and you were supposed to be dangerously close to deflation!
119. Perhaps Miliband and the other global warming fanatics will be telling us a recession is a price ‘well worth paying’ to cut emissions, next.
120 FluffyThoughts. You mean Boris “Hanovarian” Johnson !! …. from the gene pool of “George II”
I knew there was something very sus about that blonde German bonce !!
I think the losses the LDs are expected to have are wildly exaggerated. Local issues are also involved when electing MPs and the LDs are good at harnassing on that. They also are helped with encumbancy, probably more than any other party. The local elections showed that things are pretty solid where we have sitting MPs also.
Shadsy is it possible for me to email you directly with an idea? If so could you send me your address to henrygmanson@hotmail.com. Thanks.
@108:
I am sure that, if elected, either a Constitutional Amendment can be passed, or I can get some photoshopped birth certicficate from some new-fangled ’state’ or something.
Well, it worked for Obama.
*ducks*
121. Marcus - things have come on a little since the 1970s, fortunately.
E,ON raise ‘lecie by 16% and gas by 26%.
We are working on a recovery package. No mae boom-and-bust! God help us!
Good Morning. On a recent thread, Mike posed the question of the number of seats the Tory’s would win at the GE and their overall majority.
Most PB bloggers voted for a majority of less than 100.
I voted for 110/120 majority.
Now it seems that most bloggers,(from reading the post’s), seem to agree, that with this latest Mori poll, a majority of plus 250 seats can be acheived. But nothing has drastically changed.
Brown’s Bum is still firmly stuck to his seat, and planning a resurgence. I as a right winger, (but not a tory), hope that this fails ignominously. But could thing change?
110. I have fairly wide acquaintance of you Caledonians, and I’d guess most Scots feel proudly Scottish - but ALSO British.
Of late the Scottishness has become primary, but that is a long way from saying the majority of Scots don’t feel British too. And this “prioritising” is no surprise.
If forced to give an answer, I’d say I felt English first, but then British. Then probably Cornish. Then Anglophone. Then western. Then male. Then white. Then a sex memoirist. Then a onetime Leeds United supporter. Then Tom Knox - international thriller writer! Then European. Etc etc.
Point being we all have multiple identities, some much more important than others. Most Scots surely value their Scottishness - but see no reason to destroy their fairly important Britishness to prove it. Especially when the alternative is to dissolve Scotland in the European Union - ruled from Brussels…
That’s why a referendum would be lost.
On one thing I agree with you. Having been ambivalent on the issue, I think Labour should just call the damn vote, along with the SNP. The vote might be Yes to independence - in which case - good luck to the Scots, Off you go. At least Labour would be finished in England for ever.
However I am pretty sure it would actually be No to independence, which would put the issue to bed for twenty years, minimum. That would be good, cause its getting boring.
Win/win. Let’s call the vote and have done with it. My suspicion is that the SNP don’t actually want a vote, for the reasons cited above.
Ah, the Union Jack is rising in Chingdao even as I write! Hoots!
Which political party will have a manifesto commitment to scrap the national census ??
The national Census is a £500 million waste of money and should be scrapped, according to a new report published today.
The New Local Government Network claims that the information gathered will be out of date by the time it is published and underestimate the number of people living in Britain.
The report argues that the survey, which is conducted every 10 years and due to occur next in 2011, cannot accurately reflect the true state of Britain because of poor quality information on households, high rates of population mobility, illegal immigration and a growing reluctance to fill in official forms.
The 2001 Census was criticised for undercounting the British population by 900,000.
108. Morus - shurely you mean posteriority!
Some quite justified criticism of George Osborne’s recent speech here. But it’s a pity Rentoul didn’t make the obvious point that both rich and poor have a vastly higher life expectancy than they had in Victorian times.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/08/by-john-rento-1.html
#123
Sorry Jack, but weren’t the Hanoverians related to the piss-poor Stuarts? That’s their claim to the Scottish-dependency that is the English-crown.
Anyhoo’s, like me Boris has Turkic-roots! We even both married beyond the Anglo-Saxon gene-pool!
Can’t inbreed like the Scots. We English have a future!
Footnote: Boris insults the Aussies! Loving it!!!
Ave it, big time!!!
:) 
:) 
134. I Like it Fluffy. Keep it up.
134 FluffyThoughts. Your name vill also go on the list …. Vot is it ??
Excellent Boris prog last night …. Turkish journo/politician done to death horribly mixed with Bavarian minor nobility and the princely royal house of Wurretenburg.
For those that missed the prog it is being repeated tonight on Beeb2 at 7.00.
136 - hmm. Was that “done to death horribly” or “horribly mixed”, there, Jack?
Just imagine if it wasn’t DC versus Loser, but Boris. His performance in Beijing is multi gold-medal!
No wonder Brown needs to hide in Kabul behind the Royal Irish Regiment! [I know a few Aussies who serve in the 1Batt.!]
O/T - Apparantly a load of Olympic horses have failed anti-doping tests!
136. Must be Pike!
136 Oopps …. Wurttemberg !!
139. You’ve been at it again, 2/1 the field.
@133:
Justified criticism? Sounds like pathetic leftie whining that Osborne just parked his tanks on their lawns but know there’s nothing they can do about it.
Fairness is a hard concept to define, but the way Labour view fairness and the way the people of Britain view fairness seem far removed.
Hence the whining.
136. I only saw about half of it! It was interesting though! The German blonde thoughts upthread occured to me as well!
When i went to see PMQ’s a few years ago I noticed Boris on the Backbenches at that time. For some reason a thought appeared in my head that he needed a german WWII Helmet to complete his look!
I told someone at work this and was surprised that this non-political person had heard of Boris and thought it funny!
138 - What has Boris said?
145. Something about slity eyes.
#136
Never watch Al-Beeb, sorry. You are sounding very insular today. I believe Senokot will clear the blockage!
Anyhoos, of for a walk, then liquid-lunch. Hopefully I’ve laid the field for the supremo: SeanT!
Ta’ra’!
137 animal. Both !! …. an excellent show, I thoroughly recommend it.
110. I have just sent back our forms for the electoral register. On nationality, I put down Swedish for my wife, as usual, and then wrote Scottish on mine. I used to write British, but, as Stickers said, I just don’t feel that way any more. There is nothing anti-English in it on a personal level.
As for the Olympics, I am pleased with how Scottish competitors performed. I am happy for the English when English competitors win, in the same way as I am happy for Canada when Canadians win - but neither have anything much to do with me or my country.
I have just spent a very enjoyable week in London, visiting the King Tut exhibition, the Sherlock Holmes museum, the National Gallery, the British Museum, HMS Belfast, taking in a concert at St Martin in the Fields and so on. I met some nice people. But I did not feel it was the capital of my nation.
I don’t actually want to get into an argument with anyone over this, I am not being contentious or hostile. I am just saying how I feel. I do not think I am alone in this, as there has been a huge rise in Scottish consciousness in recent years. In almost every wedding photograph in the local press, the men are in kilts. With a Scottish government in Edinburgh, we really do feel “a nation once again”, as the Irish song put it.
Devolution is a trial separation - divorce is pretty much inevitable. I would prefer it to be amicable. There is no call for threats or abuse on any side. Whatever happens, we still have to share the Island.
#145
He just made a joke about a Beijing congestion-charge. I think he said that the Chinese Army would not like it!
He did add that it was meant to be ironic! The guy has the journalists in his thrall! Suggest you watch SkyNews!
146 Martin. Well Boris is related to Phil the Greek !!
136.JackW, thought it was one of the best episodes I have seen, it had everything! From the mystery of the granny’s family silver through to politics, murder, and intrigue which involved illegitimate royalty. Boris having true toff and European connections had a delicious irony.
And you could not make up that Family surname which Boris now carries as a middle name.
Really worth watching the repeat.
‘but neither have anything much to do with me or my country’
What an absurdly insular and parochial remark. One of the most ridiculous ever posted on this site.
Poor ‘ol Boris he’s obviously upset someone at BA.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23542294-details/Weary+Boris+is+refused+an+upgrade+on+China+flight/article.do
How dare they treat a ‘Royal’ that way: Orf with their ‘eads!
SkyNews: Breaking news…:
Gordon Brown has promised to fund more training of the Afghan army. My worry is that this will be funded by selling the Typhoon Tranche III to the Japanese and/or the Saudis.
New Labour: Underfund our Army; destroy our Navy; and now pawn our Air-Force. How many puppet-holders on the M4 bus-lane are their…?
@154:
Ha!
Poor sod having to slum it with the proles.
149.”In almost every wedding photograph in the local press”
Oh god, don’t try and tell me that the SNP and independence has pushed up the instances of men in kilts in Scotland please! Newsflash, they have been a popular form of attire at weddings for years.
“With a Scottish government in Edinburgh, we really do feel “a nation once again”, as the Irish song put it.” Sorry Fergusmac, but pass me the bucket.
150/1/2. Boris for PM! Dave must be envious.
139 — Not me!!!
154. Bang goes the 3rd runway at Heathrow for BA-BAA
Boris should be grateful they didn’t lose his bags..
148 - agreed, it was a great piece of TV. As entertaining as the whole ‘German nobility’ part was, I couldn’t help but feel we saw more of the real Boris earlier on, when he was exploring his Turkish roots. There wasn’t much of the buffoonish fop in his reaction when he heard the account of his great-grandfather’s murder. Hint of steel, there, it seemed.
152 Boris. Indeed. Murder, mystery, exotic locations, royal hanky panky, mistresses and flogging the family silver …. just an everyday story of Tory folk !!
“One of the most ridiculous [remarks] ever posted on this site.”
You must not have been here last night when the NeoCons were insisting that if Russia attacked Poland, wussy Europe and wimpy Obama wouldn’t retaliate.
143 For a Conservative to criticise Labour because outcomes are unequal is philosophically incoherent.
Morus has now been added to the Dem veep betting at 14/1 for a limited time only.
We will not be entertaining any complaints about his eligibility should any bet prove to be a loser.
@163:
NUCLEAR WAR YOU CAN BELIEVE IN.
@165:
Do you take non-monetary bets? I want to wager a small portion of my dignity and self respect.
“In almost every wedding photograph in the local press, the men are in kilts”
Do they wear anything underneath?
Beth/RAM, I hesitate to enter a debate about the Libdems and their prospects in the GE, as it’s a touchy issue for some posters on PB: backs start to arch and fur begins to fly. There are reasons why their number of seats will fall next time round:
1. The gap between then and the Tory share of the polls has widened dramatically from about 10% in 2005 to more than 25% now. Many of their seats are endangered by a Tory resurgence.
2. Cameron has deliberately targeted LibDem voters. This covers the issues he espouses, the language and tone he uses and the policies he adopts. This is new. My judgement is that it is also going to be very effective.
3. The Libdems seem to think that incumbency gives them some immunity to national trends. They further point to places where the libDems are entrenched in local authorities and related constituencies, and indeed the LibDems do well in Eastleigh and South Somerset which they have held continuously for more than a decade. However, at the start of 1997 they controlled around 50 local authorities. They have only controlled nine of them continuously since then. They lost about 35 to the Tories. Now, they picked up others, significantly from Labour in recent years and they still have 29 councils. But the point is: it is a myth that once the LibDems get a foothold they cannot be dislodged.
4. The LibDems hope to offset losses to the Tories with gains from Labour, especially in‘old labour’ conurbations in the North. I’ll believe this when it happens. They have been entrenched in local government for decades in Liverpool but never made much of a breakthrough at a parliamentary level. Even their gains from Labour in 2005 were often in areas which had been Tory in the 1980s, still had sizeable middle classes or had lots of students.
5. The SNP seem to have special treats in store for the LibDems in Scotland, which I’ll leave to others.
This is why, despite risking the wrath of Mark Senior, I reckon the LibDems will be big losers in 2010.
@164:
Not if you’re criticising them on their own terms. Even by Labour’s own stated standards and goals, they’re an astonishing failure.
In many ways, it’s more reasonable to judge them by their own standards, since they are (in theory) attempting to meet their own standards. We don’t expect them to meet ours, because we know they’re rather too dim to understand them.
161.Glad that Boris’s one word reaction to his g grandfather’s murder did not get edited. Also interesting to note that even now, the whole episode still seems to have some controversy attached to it in Turkey. But I suspect it is more for the way he died rather than his political actions.
168
Nothing is worn under the kilts, its all in perfect working order:boom boom!!
#130
The British Social Attitudes Survey 2007 showed that fewer than half of Scots defined themselves as British - and that was as a secondary identity. The overwhelming majority saw themselves as “Only or Mainly Scottish”:
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/natcen/pages/news_and_media_docs/BSA_24_report.pdf
And also, without exception, the successes of Hoy and other Olympians in Scotland, have been defined as Scottish successes in the media (print and broadcast). I believe there are even plans for a parade of “Scottish Olympians” in Edinburgh too.
168.”Do they wear anything underneath?”
Some do and some don’t, depends on how brave they are. Although wearing something gives the guests somewhere to put the confetti.
Actually that program on Boris last night has got me thinking.
If Gordon Brown did the same and investigated his family i think that he would also have german relatives. Indeed, the Hitler family comes to mind. Brown’s nose is uncannily similar to Adolf Hitler and facially Brown and Hitler have other similarities. Hitler only had one Ball where as Brown only has one eye. Both thought they were strategic genuis’s and spent their last years in office in Bunkers!
174. Brown more likely to be related to Neville Chaimberlin..
176. Yes but Neville resigned whereas Brown will not!
173 I was told about someone who used his pet cat’s head as a sporran, after it died.
174 Hitler was much more gifted, politically, than Brown.
172 ChrisD. Well, I’ve never heard it called confetti before …. it brings a whole new meaning to vergers urging wedding guests not to hurl their confetti in church !!
@178:
Hitler won an election.
178.
Boris Johnson team in chaos as another deputy major resigns.
Have we peaked too early and 2012 will be a big let down.
179.
180. Ah, but did he have Brown’s ‘courage’?
@181/181
:blush:
Hitler/Brown whipped up fear of Communism/terrorism in order to push through repressive legislation.
Mr Godwin is on annual leave, and will be out of the office until 13/09/2008.
In an emergency, please mark any such comparisons as high priority, and a member of Godwin’s support team will get back to you.
re 149, 157
I agree with Chris D, I don’t think you can use the prevelance of kilt-wearing as an indicator of growing support for independence. I wear my kilt at formal functions all the time and I’d never back independence. I wear it because I think it’s more interesting than a tux and (it’s pathetic, I know) a lot of women think it looks good (particularly, I’ve found, south of the border - possibly due to the novelty factor).
I also concur with (I think) Sean T’s claim that, while Salmond et al are careful to avoid directly fuelling it, a big tranche of SNP support comes from a mindless anti-English brigade up here. The SNP would never admit it or be seen to encourage it but they are reliant on the knee-jerk ‘we hate England’ minority.
Oh God. We’re talking about Hitler and it’s not even lunchtime.
This wasn’t the Boris documentary, was it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7573772.stm
149. Oh golly. As others have pointed out, yours is one of the silliest posts pb has seen in a while, and that’s saying something - after my full-blown attack on wheeled luggage last Tuesday.
Your evidence of Scottish yearning for political independence is… the wearing of plaid skirts by men at weddings. Right. OK. Yup. Uh-huh.
Incidentally, if kiltage is such a vital sign of Scottishness that its adoption means secession is imminent, why don’t you wear them all the time? Indeed, who doesn’t Alex Salmond wear one? He is the leader of the SNP, after all.
If clothes are that important, I shall believe Scotland is finally determined on independence - when your first minister appears at Holyrood in full tartan skirt, with sporran, dirk, and tasselled white socks, sporting a ginger comedy wig on his head, underneath a three-foot-wide tam o’shanter.
Hitler ended his days in a bunker, in denial about his fate, believing himself a man of destiny betrayed by treacherous colleagues. He was also prone to ferocious rages
He also liked cream cakes and alsatian dogs. So no similarities with Brown, then.
188.”Oh God. We’re talking about Hitler and it’s not even lunchtime.”
I know what mean Henry, usually that is the nightcap of choice on this site.
188 - Hear, hear!
PS Can I just say I am not anti-kilt *per se*. I think they can look very nice. Especially on petite Japanese girls aged 17-23.
SeanT - from a couple of threads back, I was once checked into a top Bangkok hotel by someone sporting a badge that said “Supaporn”. Never did work out if it was her name tag - or just bragging!
Oh yes - the LibDems. We have had a political earthquake in the past year. Labour have gone from plus 10 to minus 24. But it has utterly passed by the LibDems. Not a single nick-nack has fallen off their shelves. A 34% movement - and they haven’t bagged any of it. Spectaculalry bad!
187.Tholster, I have always enjoyed seeing a man in a kilt, especially if he has a good set of pins.
But to equate the popularity of it now with the SNP and its quest for independence is just plain wrong. It really started becoming popular again at formal occasions about 20 years ago and its never fallen out of fashion since. In fact most men seem to enjoy wearing it, heard more than a few say its very comfy.
#188 In my experience the “We hate England” minority are almost without exception Unionist and amongst the most visceral opponents of Scottish independence. Something which I can never understand.
Incidentally the link in #173 indicates that only one in five Scots see themselves as equally Scottish and British. Rather interesting, I think.
Morus has just overtaken Max Cleland in our field book.
Insert joke here….
“Brown more likely to be related to Neville Chamberlain..”
No, but Harriet Harman is closely related…
Joking aside, it is silly to compare Brown with Hitler.
Hitler is a major historical figure, Brown will be the merest of footnotes, on a par with Spencer Perceval, Viscount Goderich, or the Duke of Portland.
194 Been to Cafe No-knicks in Tokyo then? The one with the glass floors? (And no, I haven’t - but a former Japanese girlfriend told me about it…..)
85-The US Consitution says something only on “naturally born Americans” being leigible to become presidents. Becasue of Romney’s father (pops was born in Mexico), this was clarified to mean, born of US parents. In addition McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone, then a US military base. Hence, McCain is in the clear.
I don’t know enough about Obama’s photshopped or otherwise birth certificate.
176.He was a very decent man Neville Chamberlain, who could blame him for trying to avoid another world war, just twenty years after the last carnage.
Most people in 1938 felt the same way after losing a generation of young men,to a war which Great Britain should have avoided in 1914.
200. Sod that just go to the new terminal at heathrow airport!!!
200. ‘No pan’ shabu shabu - isn’t there a chain of them? There was a decade or so ago…
“decent” isn’t enough to be a good PM.
Fernando at 169. When I first became involved in politics in 1997 I was astonished to discover that the wildly safe Parliamentary seat of Windsor was regularly returning enough Lib Dems onto the Royal Borough council to give them a majority there.
It took ages to establish that the reason was down to differential turnout.
Lib Dems are a smaller and newer party, as a result they seemed to have a much better ‘handle’ on their loyal band of voters.
In the Tory heydays in Windsor they had tended to assume that everyone was a Tory unless they told us otherwise; the canvassing was awful and patchy whereas the far more motivated Lib Dem activists had up-to-date lists of their known voters all of whom were seen as converts; and they were very good at reminding them to vote on the day.
So a 2:1 Con advantage in a GE became a 50/50 split in the lower turnout local elections where they got most of their voters out and we miserably failed to do likewise.
Slowly, (very slowly)in many seats we have re-learned the skills of being a political movement instead of a social club and the results have been to largely neutralise the Lib dem advantage.
I do think the Lib Dems will hang on in some surprising places where the local Conservative party just haven’t learned the lessons neccessary to win; but there are fewer and fewer of these left.
And finally the line ‘he is a popular local chap with a substantial personal vote’ is tosh - every MP from every party knows that deep down the number of people who actually vote for the person *against the grain* of their own political views is negligable.
169 Fernando - Sounds sensible to me. LibDem supporters may not like it, but the political world has changed - they haven’t had to face a popular and well-run Conservative party for twenty years. And there is no sign in the polls, or recent by-elections, to suggest that LibDem optimists are right.
Things may change, of course. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
On which subject, PBers seem to agree that will be a substantial Conservative majority at the next GE. The main disagreement seems to be whether it will be in region of 100 or so, or much larger. But the spread-bet markets are still predicting a majority of around 40.
204. Apparently - or so I just read (not that I’m bored or anything, having finished the thriller (again)) - the “no-pan” bars are now a thing of history! They went out of fashion a while ago, according to the many websites I have just feverishly accessed.
Ah well. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.
Who says Labour isn’t working??
From 24dash.com
The number of Eastern European migrants coming to work in the UK has fallen to its lowest level since accession, according to statistics published by the Home Office today.
The figures show that between April and June 2008 there were 40,000 applications to the Worker Registration Scheme from nationals of the eight countries that joined the EU in 2004 - a drop of 14,000 from the same period last year and a fall of 9,000 from the first three months of this year.
The number of Bulgarians and Romanians applying to work in the UK has also dropped to its lowest level since accession in January 2007 with only 7,005 applications for worker cards and registration certificates between April and June of this year, compared to 10,860 in the same period last year.
In other statistics also published today figures show the Government is removing those that have no right to be here, especially those that cause the most harm.
In the first six months of 2008 32,230 people were removed from the UK, up six per cent from the first half of 2007. Within this figure the number of non-asylum removals increased - going from 23,195 to 26,275, a rise of 13 per cent.
Last year the Home Office removed a record 4,200 foreigner prisoners and this year is on track to meet its target to remove at least 5,000. In the first six months of this year over 2,500 foreign prisoners have been removed - a 23 per cent increase on the same period last year.
Is the cheque in the post yet Nick P ?
205 “decent” I assure you it is good enought to be PM.
210. Ming Campbell & Iain Duncan Smith are decent men.
@208:
You heterosexuals are so fickle. Tsk.
In the Times states Boris Johnson team in chaos as another deputy major resigns.
Also is there a danger of peaking to early in Bejing , then the media over hyping our chances for London 2012.
206 and 169. Local success doesn’t guarantee translation to Westminster but it is almost unheard of for Lib Dem advances at Westminster not to be preced by it. The only exception I can think of is Ludlow where perhaps not coincidently the Lib Dem MP then could not gain re-election.
As for local MPs it really depends on the MP. But the likes of Cyril Smith I think no one can argue did not have massive personal votes. Nothing else could explain how his survival.
Rove on the Party Conventions
Professor Tom Holbrook of UW-Milwaukee says history suggests the candidate thought to be running ahead of where he should be (Mr. McCain) will get a smaller bounce, while the candidate generally thought to be running behind expectations (Mr. Obama) will get a larger one. Mr. Holbrook also finds the earlier convention gets the bigger bump, another Obama advantage.
Even then, the size of the bounce alone isn’t determinative. Barry Goldwater and Al Gore got large bumps and lost, while Presidents Reagan and Bush in their re-elections received small bounces and won. The real question is durability. Are there lasting changes in how a candidate is perceived?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121927746541958629.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
211 Well under the present system no Lib Dem could become PM so your point is bogus.
That leaves any half decent leader of the two major parties,depending on who is up or down at the time of the election.
Hardly a presedential test that we are currently observing across the pond.
However it about time this country should elect its head of state, instead of the born to privilege/position/ rule orthodoxy,I suspect you support.
214.Didn’t he represent Roachdale? It is still a fairly strong liberal area now.
vid’ And Me
Jon Craig saying on Boulton&Co blog that “He did confirm two things about his autumn fightback, however. First, there will be an emergency mini-Budget next month to help families hit by higher mortgages, gas and electricity bills and petrol prices. And second, a September reshuffle of the Cabinet and other ministers now looks unlikely. He shook his head when asked about a reshuffle next month.”
An emergency mini-budget! That smacks of Treasury and government incompetence and chaos with a hefty dose of desperation thrown in, especially when this relaunch with tasty bribes is aimed at undoing some of the self inflicted damage on they have already suffered.
Simple using the term emergency undermines Brown and Darling.
How long will Darling continue to put up with this if he has any ambitions of maintaining his credibility as a senior politician within the Labour party, never mind with the voters after Brown is gone?
I think Tom Daschle at 80/1 with paddypower.com to be the Democrat’s VP candidate is worth a fiver of anyone’s money. He’s well known and regarded but not a Washington insider. He’s loyal to Obama, from a red state and was senate majority leader. He’s not a favourite,but his price looks very big.
218 “to help families”
Looks like the £150 winter fuel allowance for those on child benefit is a go-er.
Should pay for a nice dinner and a bottle of plonk
213. I agree. I think there is now a danger of Team GB disappointing in 2012, compared to Beijing.
It looks like we are probably gonna finish third or fourth in the Beijing medals table, depending on how the Russians do. That is a phenomenal achievement - to beat all of Germany, Australia, France, Japan, Italy - and beat them well. The number of golds is also remarkable.
But in four years time the pool of golds will be fought over even more competitively, as huge nations like Brazil and India cease to underperform, and as close rivals like Australia, Germany and France copy the British techniques in cycling and sailing (where we have excelled).
I doubt we will do as well in London as we have done here, though the home advantage will be a countervailing factor.
Incidentally, what I don’t understand it why we aren’t better at boxing. We are a warrior nation. Probably the punchiest nation on the globe, pound for pound. Brawling outside pubs is our national sport. Tchuh. Maybe its the gay helmets the boxers are forced to wear, which our manly pugliists find offputting.
217 Only because he made it so. It certainly wasn’t when he arrived nor for some time after. It shows how one individual can given time change an area.
According to Reuters, Daschle has recently been under consideration for VP.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1734149020080817?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true
Paddy Power will only let me have £11 at 80/1 stakes.
On PaddyPower Democrats are 2.1 to win Nevada, worth backing?
222. The Liberals came quite close to winning Rochdale in 1959 - pre-Smith - so there is apparently quite a long-term Liberal tradition there.
Interesting piece on CNN - Reinforces my opinion that a Clinton will not be on the ticket. Just does not make sense from their point of view: HRC can have another shot in 4 years if she stays off the ticket and Obama loses. McCain is a one term president IMO if elected anyway.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/08/06/martin.billclinton/index.html
223. I got £10 quid on - thks for the tip.
A common joke on the size of the Parliamentary Liberal Party in the early 1970s was that only one taxi would be needed to transport the entire party; after Smith’s election, the party could fill two taxis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Smith
Commeth the man - Commeth the yellow taxi! Only one needed in 2010!
also on PaddyPower Republicans 2.0 to win Virginia
re 121 The BoE won’t be helping Brown intentionally but I think they will split on the side of interest rate cuts to limit the fall economically; especially if they are nudged in this direction by the Govt.
Exactly, wasn’t GB crowing that “independence” for the BofE was one of his greatest acts. Best chancellor ever - pull the other one.
225 it shouldn’t be overstated that there wasn’t some good ground for Cyril Smith to till, but bear in mind Labour were thrashed nationally in 1959 and Cyril Smith won it from Labour while in opposition in 1972 and held it when they were winning in one sense or another both the 1974 elections. He certainly entrenched and expanded the base so that when the Blair tide ebbed they were well placed to take it back. I don’t think you can mark him down too much.
201. McCain may not be a natural born citizen. The Zone was never considered part of the US, and it took a special Act of Congress in 1937 to grant citizenship to those born there, but it was not retroactive law. Hence, at the time of his birth in 1936, McCain was not born a US citizen (although he became one aged 11 months as a result of the Act of Congress.)
Since he was not a citizen at birth, it’s hard to see how he could be a “natural born citizen.”
Obama has his own problems, with probable British, Kenyan and Indonesian citizenship in his early years.
I’ll make a little prediction. If both McCain and Obama make it through to the election without serious legal challenge, in 4 years time Arnie will make a run for the Presidency…
The phrase “natural born citizen” will have been proved meaningless, and Schwarzenegger will have as much legal right as McCain and Obama to be elected President….
I’ve got a feeling that we’ll know Obama’s VP within the hour.
Cocmpletely off topic but I’ve just had one of these new fangled pennies in my change. In real life it looks even more hideous than it did on the website. How long will it be before the Royal Mint realises that it’s made a terrible mistake? I still can’t see why they needed changing in the first place.
234. I didn’t realise they were changing them! I miss the old 50p.
232 I thought having parents with US citizenship automatically qualifies you as a Citizen.
Norman Fowler says Labour should keep Brown:
I have no natural sympathy for Brown. He conspired against Blair and in many ways deserves to reap what he has sown. But I like those who conspire against him even less.
If Brown goes then they will have won. The open rebels, the quiet whisperers and the Ministers keeping their options open will have prevailed. Labour may be unpopular today but a party that stabs a Prime Minister in the back after 12 months will be held in public contempt.
If Labour wishes to commit its own kind of political suicide do not let me - a former Tory chairman - stand in its way. But I warn Labour MPs of this: if they think that changing their leader will save them in the polls they are utterly deceiving themselves
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1034557/Dont-knife-Gordon–says-John-Majors-chairman-Norman-Fowler.html
I have a coin-collecting friend in Canada who’s agreed to get me something in return for a set of the new designs, so I can’t complain too much…
238. Canadian citizenship?
234 - I think a change can be good, but this change is hideous. It looks like what it is the sketching of a twenty-something moron.
Clinton has played this very well since the end of the primary, she would be a good choice.
My concern, as always, is Bill, I don’t trust him, but if he can be neutralised then great.
On a betting note, this has been worked (and it isn’t purely by chance) so that McCain is at the highest possible point now and any bounce will be magnified. You might want to wait until tomorrow to cash in but I’d suggest today before the Veep announcement. Tomorrow may be too late.
(Mista Magnan? I’m letting him hang himself; hack your way through the sub-Baudrillard prose, it’s very dark and bleak in there.)
238 — Not a bad idea, but no…
I really like the new coins - they look terrific.
Not sure about Brown’s comments on courage, Olympics and troops was a good idea. Competition in the Olympics requires fitness, concentraton and dedication, but it doesn’t have the risk of being attacked by your opponents. On Five News the clip does not show a sea of happy troops with the dear leader, only a couple of smiling officers and the necks of some troops, there had been rumours on the Army Rumour site that Blair had been booed or had been met by ranks of surly unsmiling faces.
Incidently how did the UK do in shooting? Someone could have been difficult about the lack of training facilities in GB.
Interesting blog on the demise of the Campaign group in the PLP.
http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2008/08/more-campaign-group-shrinkage.html
No chance of a hard left candidate even if there is a wipeout at the next election.
re 218 1970s here we come again. Is Darling going to ask Lord Healey for advice.
232. Didn’t they take Albright out of the presidential order of Sucesion on this point when she was Sec of State? Her case was clearer cut I suppose.
236. It does not, automatically. Under modern statutes, certain residency qualifications must be met, both by the parent(s) before the birth, and by the child afterwards.
e.g. if Obama was not born in Hawaii, as some rumours suggest, under the law at the time he could not be a US citizen, since his mother, while a US citizen herself, was too young to meet the previous US residency requirements laid down by statute.
The problem for McCain is that under the statutes in force at the time of his birth, the Zone was a “no-man’s land”, not part of the US, and yet under the jurisdiction thereof, and not covered by the existing statutes. In fact, if McCain had been born 100 yards away, in Panama proper, there would be no problem, since being born in a foreign country to US parents (with certain US residency qualifications, that McCain’s parents met) was covered by existing statutes.
The 1937 Act of Congress specifically addressed the Zone’s anomaly, but as I indicated previously, not in a away that would have made McCain a citizen at the time of his birth…
re 246 and I forgot to say does anyone have the number for the IMF handy.
Meanwhile Clegg is off to the moon…
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has unveiled plans for an “energy independent” Britain by 2050, which he says can be achieved by boosting renewable energy.
He is calling for a programme on the scale of the Apollo moon mission to end the UK’s increasing dependence on foreign coal, gas and oil.
The government wants more nuclear energy, but he says wave, biomass, wind and solar power is the way forward.
The Tories say Mr Clegg’s plans “defy reality” and “verge on the loopy”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7573691.stm
If Obama once had British citizenship, if he fails to become POTUS, can we get him over here?
248. So what happens if every electoral vote is cast for candidates who are ineligible?
232/248. Rod - where can I get odds on Arnie?
“Houston, we have a problem…”
254. Opik in orbit ?
241. Hillary would be a terrible choice for Obama. It would mean accepting defeat to the sea of Howling Hillary Women, and letting Bill on a leverage of power.
I cant see the KLINGONS, sorry the KLINTONS ever letting go of power once it’s in their hands.
Anyway, McCain will win.
250 The Tories say Mr Clegg’s plans “defy reality” and “verge on the loopy”.
They’re going to copy them aren’t they.
255 — asteroid defence!
More on the Lib Dems 50 seat plan -
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2a982f6-6d79-11dd-857b-0000779fd18c.html
256 - Not now, that was then, McCain has made such an obvious shift of perception that it no longer matters.
Why not Clinton before? Because she would enthuse the GOP base and McCain wouldn’t do that, as he would have to make trash his maverick status.
Well guess, what? He’s gone and done it. As such, if it is Clinton then it will not matter, he’s already painted Obama as a Clinton type hate figure. In addition, he has only one more week left of fundraising, leaving it this late means that someone like Clinton cannot help him raise more money on the back of unpopularity with his base.
Drudge:
Caroline Kennedy to be US Ambassador to London at the Court of St James
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2592704/Prepare-for-a-Kennedy-at-the-Court-of-St-Jamess.html
252. The Veep-elect “acts as President”, assuming one can be chosen by the Senate, and there are no similar citizenship impediments…
163: ‘You must not have been here last night when the NeoCons were insisting that if Russia attacked Poland, wussy Europe and wimpy Obama wouldn’t retaliate.’
As one of the ‘NeoCons’ from last night who was subject to your ire I think I’m entitled to respond to your jibe: I am fearful for the resolve of NATO (think Afghanistan) and I fear Putin. Of course, you see Vlad as a good old stick, much maligned. However, those of us who remember the decades of fear, the trillions spent aren’t quite so relaxed about the characters who inhabit the Kremlin. Russia must be kept under heel - for the good of its people as well as ours - but are there enough people without their heads in the clouds to do it?
Seen on Guidp’s site, and on the Telegraph website.
“He was not helped during his press conference with President Hamid Karzai, when the Afghan leader intervened to say: “Cabinet ministers plotting is nothing new. We have it in Afghanistan – although not my foreign minister.”
260. Thats a bit of convoluted thinking……………
252 - Hypothetically, no eligible candidate would have secured the necessary 270 votes, so it would go to House and Senate. If they didn’t vote for eligible candidates, it would leave both positions vacant, and the Speaker of the House would become President (if eligible - if not, Senate Pro Tem etc etc).
In reality, imagine it was Arnie who won. The SCOTUS would then decide on whether or not he was eligible. Only if it found him to be ineligible would it go to the House (as an eligible candidate losing to Arnie wouldn’t have the 270 ECVs).
Would the Court strike down a President for ineligibility after they ahd won an election? Politics v Law - I’m not sure which side would win that one. They might prevent the candidate to avoid confusion which could undermine all the laws signed by that President (cautious approach).
262 - I was assuming he meant if no candidate for President or Vice President was eligible (No votes for eligible candidates in the Electoral College).
If only the President was ineligible, the VP would be elected VP, and would serve, as you say
262. Thanks. The House wouldn’t have any to choose from: it’s only the top three in the electoral college who go through, although I suppose it’s possible they could give themselves freedom to choose anyone on a legal fiction that anyone not voted for finished third, tied on zero.
If it does become an issue (I don’t think it will - it should be sorted beforehand), what will the temptations be for electors to go faithless?
265 - But true; why not put a hate figure as veep when McCain has already been doing everything he can to turn his main opponent into a hate figure?
266. Surely a person such as Arnie,(known to have been born abroad), would not be chosen in the first place.
267. It was just the presidential candidates I was meaning as there are questions over both candidates’ eligibility, and they’re likely to get every EC vote between them. It would take some going for them both to pick running mates who might be ineligible too!
“I fear Putin. Of course, you see Vlad as a good old stick, much maligned. However, those of us who remember the decades of fear…”
Fear was all it was — the Soviets would never have invaded Western Europe.
I’m no fan of the dictatorial populist Putin whatsoever, but at least one advantage of having “my head in the clouds” is that I don’t insist of seeing Hitler Mk II’s everywhere I look.
Don’t insist *on*…
259. ‘West country Lib Dems warn of possible wipe-out at the hands of Cameron…’
Marvellous stuff. Even Laws could lose his seat on current trends…
272: ‘I don’t insist of seeing Hitler Mk II’s everywhere I look.’
I’m afraid you’re rather innocent, my friend.
258. Just use bunker busting Nuclear weapons on Astriods - Avoids having send Bruce Willis up there!
Seriously that is what you would use though!
269. …….. and could rebound on the perpetrators to their detriment.
277 - It is likely to rebound on McCain yes.
259. Clegg seems to be taking on board the Hitler strategy of fighting a war on two fronts. Looks like the LD’s are going to end up completly wiped out! Will Nick Clegg be ditching Sheffield Hallam i wonder?
“I am fearful for the resolve of NATO (think Afghanistan)…”
Doubtless our resolve in Afghanistan would be a lot stronger if we hadn’t also insisted on simultaneously fighting a war against a dictator who, however abhorrent, had neither WMD nor responsibility for 9/11.
275 — How many do you see, and if there are that many why aren’t you advocating the return of conscription?
280. Hopefully, now the Pakistani president has gone; they will let Nato Troops in the province where all the Muslim nutters seem to have infested.
Carnage in the relays, fun, fun, fun.
282 - McCain agreed with a woman who wanted to reinstate the draft yesterday.
270. But Obama, very curiously, is citing the 14th Amendment as grounds for his eligibility.
McCain, at the time of his birth, was not a citizen, according to the 14th Amendment. He is a citizen by virtue of the 1937 Act of Congress.
However, under the 14th Amendment, Arnie too is a citizen of the US.
It is clear that they are all citizens, but not clear which is “a natural born citizen.”
Arnie, on the face of it, is not a “natural born citizen”, but his argument would be that neither were, for different reasons, Obama or McCain ….
284. Actually the ‘draft’ could work if you kept the ‘draft’ at home and still sent the ‘proffesional’ army abroad!
279. More like the Lord Raglan strategy, methinks.
New Rasmussen poll for Pennsylvania :
McCain 45% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2
280-But we went into Afghanistan before Iraq->the reslve may never have been there.
279: Two fronts are fine, if one front is a threat, like Britain, and the other is less so like Yugoslavia, or Greece.
287. More like Lord Chemlsford at Isandlwana “the enemy are elsewhere ”
289 - Listen to the military, Rumsfeld and the US administration were totally useless.
279 Yes, the problem with the LibDem strategy is that by fighting on two fronts they are willing to sacrifice ground in the south to win territory in the north. It sounds fine in theory. But who is going to lose by the transfer of resources. Is Sandra Gidley or Martin Tod or Mathew Taylor happy to be sacrificed for the greater good of candidates in Liverpool or Hull? Who’s been chosen for the chop? Which proud constituency party is to be asked to shift money and manpower elsewhere? I can see many opportunities for discontent and dissent, if it hasn’t already happened, especially as Rennard seems to have lost his aura of invincibility.
293 Even within the South there will be priority. I bet Sandra Gidley will already be marked down now as a gonner and therefore Huhne will get priority because he has a much better chance to hold on.
**Anyone** - Where and what odds can I get on Arnie?
289 Considering the drumbeats for Iraq began to beat immediately we can never know.
Looking in, I see three baffling posts directed at me. After a note saying what I understand the Treasury committee to have suggested about the census (to replace it by a cheaper and less intrusive opinion poll), we find at 79, Fluffy saying I want to destroy the census, and at 80, Bannedhorse complaining that it’s unlikely that Labour would do it. I don’t really have a strong opinion on this, guys (I take Chris’s point about family research), it was just a point of information, and it’s an all-party committee anyway.
Meanwhile, after discussing falling immigration, Herbert Proper suddenly asks me if the cheque is in the post. Eh?
291. General Custer’s advance to the Little Big Horn and Napoleon’s retreat from Russia also spring to mind….
:)
294. And will be the leader post 2010 GE ?
281: ‘How many do you see, and if there are that many why aren’t you advocating the return of conscription?’
Wars aren’t generally fought by massed battalions with bayonets these days so there probably wouldn’t be much point. But I see your ploy: depict us haters of tyrants as boss-eyed warmongers forever seeing demons in the shadows. Your posts seem tendentious, but I admit I’ve yet to fathom them.
297. You should be flattered by the suprising degree of attention your posts get.
299 Dependent on the overall result for the Lib Dems and if he holds it is a possibility.
293. Well i think it is ridiculous, even more so the way you get shouted down on here if you dare to say anything - you get shouted down about halving of the LD party.
An interesting thing that i noticed on Eastleigh was the fact the LD’s have never had an overwelming vote like that of the Tories in 1992. Some of it can be explained by turnout but Huhne is certainly for the chop. I should imagine his seat is the first in the abandon list! Others like Solihul will also have been ditched, looking at this strategy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
By the way i don’t believe Labour voters are going to help Huhne either, surely they would have gone over already?
Does Huhne have a better chance though? I doubt it, Why? No LD since 1997 has got over 20,000 votes. In 1992 the last time that the Tories won a GE and incidently this seat they got 38,000 votes! even if the Tories just get 10,000 more vote Huhne is toast. I am sorry but LD’s talk complete Bollcks on Huhne - he is dead meat!
303 - Would you like a wager on that? I am not overwhelmingly hopeful for my party in the south and SW, but am pretty confident for Huhne.
303: Martin, the results in the locals suggest that there is a strong Lib Dem vote in Eastleigh. Huhne will probably hold on when stronger Lib Dem seats (on paper at least) fall to the Tories.
304. Clegg will shore up his position - only Lembit or David Howarth as competition
303 No. The Lib Dem squeeze is always personal so when an MP retires the 3rd party vote rises. One of many reasons why that is always the best time for the Conservatives to pick up Lib Dem seats. Huhne having scraped in will now be stamping his own name on the seat and will certainly push the Labour vote way down. To have any chance the Tories would have to greatly increase turnout in the seat and bank on the overwhelming bulk of the new voters voting for them to overcome this factor.
304 - £100 bet?
Just released three comments, so numbering maybe a little wonky.
284 ukpaul should not use this site to spread the laughable wingnut propaganda about McCain wanting to bring back the draft.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/does_mccain_favor_a_draft_nope.php
305. No because i am out of work and you are not closing down the argument by saying that. Your argument is complete tosh! It’s laughable!
If the guy who won the by-election could not sustain his vote in 1997 or even really get much of an incumbancy factor than why would huhne have any better chance? He would not - Huhne will lose no doubt about it!
304 - I go drinking with Huhne’s staff, and they are really not overly concerned about the possibility of him losing his seat.
I’d be astounded if he lost, whereas only Clegg, Cable, Hughes, Campbell and Kennedy and one or two others are completely safe beyond him. I’m in a minority on here in thinking Lembit will survive.
309. But that strong local vote has been there for many years and yet Huhhe still almost lost last time.
A lot of Eastleigh is classic swing vote territory so Huhne could well be in trouble if current national trends hold - even with extra name recognition, which is surely worth only a couple of thousand votes max. And who’s to say a large chunk of the residual Labour vote won’t be tempted to vote Tory?
315 - Smaller sum? I don’t want to put you under any sort of financial pressure being out of work but you seem very confident so let’s put it on the record even if it is a “pint of bitter” sum.
301: ‘You should be flattered by the suprising degree of attention your posts get.’
I feel compelled to say that the level of abuse being directed at Mr Nick Palmer MP today is quite beyond the pale! Whilst not always being in complete agreement with Nick myself on several occassion, I still appreciate the fact that he expends some of his valuable time on here amongst the likes of us. As political gambler I often find his comments useful.
314 Jan. So McCain can’t be held to account for his answers in “town hall meetings” ??
The fact is the d(r)aft comment was a clumsy and stupid mistake that months out from the election may not cause too much damage. However if McCain repeats such drivel in the debates he’ll utterly roasted !!
– 244 UK.Paul
What are ye talking about?
“(Mista Magnan? I’m letting him hang himself; hack your way through the sub-Baudrillard prose, it’s very dark and bleak in there.)”
149 “I have just sent back our forms for the electoral register. I used to write British, but, as Stickers said, I just don’t feel that way any more. ”
FergusMac, which part of Scotland does your family come from?
The British are, strictly speaking, the Brythonic Celts. They were the tribes in Strathclyde, Dumfries, Galloway in what became Scotland. The Brythonic tribes in other areas of Britain eventually became the Welsh, the Cumbrians and the Cornish.
So, unless you are from the Highlands & Islands, which were peopled by Goidelic Celts, you probably are British.
——–
I think surveys have shown that 80 per cent or more of the inhabitants of Scotland or Wales think of themselves as Scottish or Welsh respectively. In other words, a much higher figure than surveys find want independence.
I live in Hants and i would put Huhne last on my list of LibDems likely to lose in the county. He is well known and well repsected and he also has a strong local base of activists.
318. No, I can be confident in my views but alas anysome is borrowed money! Even pence! Dole money does not even cover the bills! You would not believe the amount of different jobs i am applying for - once i have a job i will be happy to bet on a small scale but it is not prudent for me to do so now as i would not want to fail to fulfill obligations! Word is my bond and all that!
323. Did you expect the Tories to nearly win Eastleigh in 2005?
314 - Hold it Jan, he agreed with the woman who said she wanted it. Now if he doesn’t agree with it then he’s either pandering to people or he has difficulty in saying what he really feels.
It can’t be anything else, if he doesn’t mean what he said then he is just weak in the face of more conservative opinion.
From the side that has been spreading lies about religion, birth certificates, associates and so on I will not be preached to like that, if McCain wanted a clean contest he shouldn’t have gone down the route he has.
There are far too many on here who spread the GOP propaganda, I will not allow that to remain unchallenged so I wouldn’t try to shout me down.
317: Huhne was an unknown last time, and Eastleigh Council is now 38 Lib Dim, Tory 4, and Labour 2.
Win Win for the Cons - sounds like Huhne will have to spend a lot of time on his own patch saving his seat - keeps him from campaigning elsewhere. He’s one of the few plausible LDs.
Interestingly the Tories have quite a strong candidate in Eastleigh:
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=people.person.page&PersonID=139549
324 - Well, fair enough. Good luck in your job hunt and maybe we’ll talk again about Eastleigh when you are safely in employment!
I would reiterate, I am not a wild optimist on Lib Dem prospects in highly marginal seats. I think nearby Romsey is almost certainly lost for example and a seat like Winchester, despite favourable boundary changes and a first-class candidate is not as safe as it appears on paper. But all that I have heard and know about Eastleigh (also Westmoreland) makes me far, far more confident than the majority alone suggests I should be.
328 TGoHF. Actually the opposite is true. Huhne will be used extensively in media appearances and accordingly his reach in the constituency will be much greater.
321- That’s a phrase which can be roughly translated as “he said something bad about a Democrat!,” or, alternatively, “he said something good about a Republican!”
327. Eastleigh council was overwhelmingly Lib Dem in 2005 as well, and the activist base was just as strong. So all you are left with here is additional name recognition. As I said, I doubt that is worth more than a couple of thousand extra votes - leaving Huhne still vulnerable to a modest Lib Dem-Tory swing of 3-4% i.e about half the current swing registered in national polls.
Remember UKIP polled nearly 1700 votes last time as well….
VP MARKET
I’m up 1100$ if Hillary is on the ticket — coze of all my laying of Kaine and Biden, mostly (before, I was heavily red on her)..
I was going to lay her again, but something stopped me.
I think it is possible :
NRO :
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com
538.com:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/case-for-hillary.html
CNN:
http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/20/obama-in-need-of-a-game-changer/
Which seat is Iain ‘marginal loser’ Dale fighting this time round? Because that’s a guaranteed Lab/Lib hold.
333 runnymede - You took the words out of my mouth. It doesn’t look like safe LibDem territory even allowing for name recognition.
334- Good job on Kaine and Biden, particularly Biden. I wish you had followed my earlier advice and also profiteered from the folks who were wild about Webb. My three big no-nos in the Democratic VP field among those whose names have surged at one time or another have been Clinton, Webb, and Biden.
335. Not nice! I think he wants a peerage!
338. It’s the only way he’ll get into Parliament
Joe Biden? Shadsy has pulled the market again. Biden odds-on with Paddy Power, 6/4 Betfair. Someone thinks they know something.
333: I just think that if with a resurgent Tories, the Eastleigh Lib Dems can still win council seats Huhne’s situation might not be as bad as the 2005 results suggest.
340. Obama Biden his time ?
340- These sorts of things do make you nervous when it comes to the final moments! I never bet any money, but a person would still like to be right! Oh well, we’ve seen the odds go skewing wildly off into fantasy land at the last moment before (e.g., Irish referendum), so maybe it’s the same story again.
335 - He didn’t run a bad campaign as it goes. Couple of important errors but I think he would be a perfectly good candidate for a local Tory association.
340 John L. Mmhhhh …. me thinks those who know ain’t saying and those who are saying ain’t knowing !!
plus huhne is absolutely loaded, so plenty of money to spend on the campaign!
344. I’m sure his campaign was fine, however you can’t help the way you come across, whenever I see Dale on TV I want to punch something.
337 — S&S — I did lay Webb, but not enough. I misplayed this round of betting. As well as Sebelius:
I laid indeed:
Kathleen Sebelius @ 8.05 for a backer’s stake of $165.05
Bill Richardson @ 7.85 for $186.71
Sam Nunn @ 16 for $52.01
Jim Webb @ 5.55 for $156.04
John Edwards @ 18.07 for $34.57
—-
Thank you, by the way. You and Socrates helped me very much on this market! I’m sure dozens of other punters are also greatful.
“Obama Biden”
I thought he was still hiding in Pakistan?
349. As you would say yourself Martin:-
‘SATIRE’
“But I see your ploy: depict us haters of tyrants as boss-eyed warmongers forever seeing demons in the shadows.”
You forgot the adjective “stupid” — as indeed anybody who honestly believes that the EU, US and NATO would just sit back and let Russia invade Poland must be. And I thought Blair’s bull about al-Qaida being more dangerous to civilisation than Hitler and Hirohito was dumb!
What about the tyrants of China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan, by the way? What about Generals Pinochet and Gadaffi? Do they get special ‘extraordinary rendition’ exemption because they’re US allies who only torture terrorists?
Recruiting office is that way —–>
“I feel compelled to say that the level of abuse being directed at Mr Nick Palmer MP today is quite beyond the pale!”
You think it’s bad now? Wait until he mentions ID cards.
One NeoCon rushing to the defence of another; no surprises there!
341. I’m sure he starts further ahead than the 2005 result would suggest - not difficult - but I’m equally sure it isn’t nearly far enough ahead for him to be confident of bucking the national trend. I would rate his chances no better than 50/50.
You can get 2.54 Biden on betfair.
Personally I think its a suicide not by OB if he does.
Afernoon all,
Apologies for going back to a much earlier post and apologies for being so forthright but I just cannot believe such a shirking attitude.
44. I believe that they simply feel it’s cumbersome and antiquated to go trundling round every home counting heads like medieval King’s agents, and suggest using large-scale opinion polling instead - to find out census data such as N% being male and X% being of Polish origin, you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain. Sampling say 10,000 people anonymously would get accurate enough data without needing to pester everyone
What a lot of pathetic drivel. Oh for MP’s who didn’t resort to such dire excuses for their complete lack of a backbone. Just more verbal somersaults to cover for a Government and Parliament that cannot cope with their jobs but still want the power and the money.
The result of such a decision is clear. Government will not have a clue what is going on in the population (just as they don’t with migration, crime, inflation and a multitude of other figures).
No wonder MP’s are quickly becoming this society’s version of ‘the unclean’
If MP’s are really worried about bothering us so much with such fundamental tenets of good management then they don’t deserve to be MP’s. Those (whatever party they represent) of that opinion should stand down now and make way for people who are willing to do the job they are paid for by the good people of this country!
What next will they suggest? Instead of having elections using ICM to run a poll that will decide the Government until further notice?
Or perhaps they should say the same about Tax returns hmmmmm? Instead of bothering us with those confusing tax forms, lets all pay what we like when we like?
It really is utter nonsense. How on earth did these people get elected?
@350:
I sense a conspiracy. Maybe the Lisbon Lizards are involved?
“Obama Biden” == “Osama Bin Laden”
348- You’re welcome. For me, its just a matter of personal interest in politics since I don’t bet any money. But if you can make a few bucks, great for you! By the way, I don’t know if I’d have had the stomach to lay Richardson since I’ve always seen something bigger in him. But the whole idea of a double minority ticket could have been just too much for a calculating Obama team. If a traditional white guy had been the Democratic nominee, I think Richardson’s chances would have been much greater.
343 — “These sorts of things do make you nervous when it comes to the final moments!”
Indeed! I’m feeling the tension since 24 hours…
PS — If you hate tyrants so much, you must despise George Bush for when, back in the early months of 2001, he gave the Taliban millions of dollars as a reward for curtailing opium production and invited their leaders to Texas to negotiate an oil pipeline…
“the whole idea of a double minority ticket could have been just too much”
Exactly. That’s why, I think, the only woman that can be on the ticket is Hillary.
355. Thank God you explained that!!!
Great SATIRE mate!!!
Maybe Neil Kinnock is going to be Obama’s VP!
Just think how exited he could get and the crowd! I can see it now: Kinnock pumps the crowd into a frenzy and then obama takes it over and pillours the old man of GOP!
353 - Not at all, the game has changed. McCain has clearly gone for the hate campaign strategy so why not have someone who the GOP will hate as Veep? Figures are starting to show that the public know that McCain is doing this so why not goad their campain into even greater extremes?
This could have been so different, it could have been an intelligent campaign but McCain and team didn’t want that, they wanted blood. So now we have a war, almost literally because the only time that McCain appears enthused is when he’s being belligerent.
358. Since when were tyrants democratically elected?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 46% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G8F-4du3rQ
It never fails to work it’s magic!
316 I think he’ll survive as well. But do you really think the combination of his antics and a good local Tory Candidate won’t see a clipping of his majority.
ON topic.
Surely if the UUP win a seat this is one more to the Con govt majority ?
I also followed you and Socrates about Warner.
I backed him on the Next V-P market thus:
$73.85 on Mark Warner @ 46.94 for a profit of $3,392.56.
This is an average on many smallish bets.
367. No.
@367:
Yes.
Any advice about Romney mating McCain?
I have laid him
Mitt Romney @ 3.96 for a backer’s stake of $389.14.
It is still possible to lay him now @ 3 on betfair…
I guess it’s hard to call without the information of Obama’s VP.
When will know the former, it will be easier to guess the later…
re 354 I know which I’d prefer - and that’s filling in a complex form every 10 years rather than having to show “my papers” several times a week to every jumped-up council official, bank clerk, or policeman.
@371:
Any advice about Romney mating McCain?
That’s one sex tape I don’t ever want to see.
369. Why not? Haven’t they merged?
Who was advising to sell U$ and to buy oil a few days ago?
Oil rises on US-Russia tensions, sliding dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080821/oil_prices.html?.v=11
From Drudge
374. IIRC, the move is only proposed, and a merger hasn’t occured yet…I could be wrong though
re 361 Martin at times your spelling just completely defeats me. “Pillours”?
S&S “I don’t bet any money”
Don’t you play on the financial market?
If so, it is betting, no?
Buffet often used the word “betting”…
367 - I don’t think the joint candidate idea is a done deal just yet and Reg Empey seems not to have a united party behind him. Personally, I doubt the UUP will win any seats anyway.
@376:
The UUP will take the Tory whip when Parliament returns from recess. They’re already an affiliated organisation, and I believe all UUP members are now eligible to attend conference.
371- Romney would be a most disappointing choice and, while I’ve always been much more hesitant to make any predictions about McCain’s choice, I just don’t have a strong positive feeling about that possibility (either in terms of my desire or my instinct about its likelihood). My best guess is that that pairing is overrated (not to mention the mating!).
378- OK, we’re getting a bit esoteric now! I do “invest,” but not in the betting markets!
372. I absolutely agree. That’s part of the problem. We have politicians who prefer to incessantly interfere in our personal business instead of ‘getting on with their jobs’ (sic) and part of that job is having an accurate idea of how many of us there are so they can plan the public services for the benefit of the population.
Instead they seem more concerned whether we scratch our backsides on a Sunday or a Monday!
Looking forward to the general election individual seat market as by the sounds of triumphalists posts on here there will be a lot of money to be made (assuming those Tories so confident of victory actually put their money where their keyboards are).
383. Ah futuristic hindsight - good luck.
304 - Well, i always ignore your tedious ramblings Runnymede!!
A few points in response to varying comments.
1. Mongomeryshire showed no sign of LD weakening in the 2007 Assembly Elections. While of course some people will vote on an individual candidate and they don’t come more marmite than Lembit it suggests underlying LD strength. And the welsh tories will have much more low hanging fruit to go after. Also Lembit is a very good local MP.
2. Eastleigh. Huhne has deep pockets, there has been no tory recovery at a Local Government level and he is a formibable local operator as well as the Tory PPC problems. I could be accused of many things but not ramping LD prospects. However I expect Huhne to hold against the tide.
3. The 50 seat ting is just an effective press release. There is going to be a Million quid appeal in the autumn to raise money for Labour held seats. they have finally realised that is where th traction is. But I seriously doubt any seat that was not a target 6 weeks ago is now. It takes years to build a LD style campaigning machine. You can transfer a few quid from cowley stret but if the clrs, activists, delivery networks etc haven’t been in place for years then its pointless.
The signifigance is the new national appeal money will go solely into Labour held seats but as most csh is under uber local control there is no chance of uch being diverted from say Hampshire to Hull.
383…i shall certainly be involved.
Can Anthony Wells/Baxter’s models really hold up on such potential huge swings? I don’t doubt the poll findings will be pretty accurate and coming as they do from a Labour friendly poster it’s ominous to say the least. But the transformation since the last eelction is so huge I wonder if the models hold up.
324, 326 Please read the Ambinder piece - he is no McCain fan. It is obvious to all but the most partisan that if McCain would change the position he has confirmed so many times on the draft, he would not do it in this fashion.
Clumsy, inaccruate - maybe, but not a change of policy. And it will have zero effect on his support and the betting markets.
As the election nears, a lot of propaganda is going to be posted here, probably from both sides. I wish people could take that kind of business elsewhere.
Yellow Submarine - the first sensible post on the Lib dem situation for ages (except my own of course)
381. S&S here’s an example of Obama trying to create compromise:
http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/08/19/the-real-story-of-the-democrats-abortion-plank/
(By the way, I find it hilarious how some conservatives find gambling immoral but love the stock market.)
388 - I would have thought the bigger the swing the less accurate such models are. I think that the assumptions change as the swing gets bigger, plus also the greater the overall swing the greater variation in regional swings which would throw things. Even with all that in mind I think that on current polling Labour are looking at their worst result since the dark days of Ramsay MacDonald!
380 North Down looks the likeliest UUP win. Very middle-class and almost certain Tory territory if it was on the mainland. Jim kilfedder sat as as Popular Unionist in the 1990s and used to support the Conservative government until his death in 1995
If NeoConservative foreign policy is to continue, sooner or later America will have to bring back the draft.
389 - Well McCain supporters started it here and it would give a perverse view to betters if they were allowed to continue unchallenged.
391- All hilarity aside, I never said anything about my views of the morality of gambling. However, I don’t find it to be a suitable investment vehicle.
*** NEW THREAD ***
Guest Article: HenryG on Scottish Labour Leadership election
*** NEW THREAD ***
Cheers,
Morus
Yellow Submarine - “They don’t come more Marmite than Lembit” -
Brilliant. Occasionally the advertising industry contributes something wonderful to the world, and whichever ad exec came up with the ‘you either love it or you hate it’ slogan has done the anglophone world a great service.
As has the man who came up with Ronseal’s “Does exactly what it says on the tin” slogan.
386. What Tory PPC problems?
396. I know. It was a statement about a hypothetical conservative. I believe Ms. Test has remarked that she thinks gambling immoral. But I could have misremembered.
What do you think of the article?
Eisenhower Leaves Republican Party
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Granddaughter-Of-Former-US-President-Dwight-Eisenhower-Leaving-Republican-Party/Article/200808315084154?lpos=World%2BNews_3&lid=ARTICLE_15084154_Granddaughter%2BOf%2BFormer%2BUS%2BPresident%2BDwight%2BEisenhower%2BLeaving%2BRepublican%2BParty
Assuming that Cameron wins a majority along the lines of what the polls are saying, this will mean that the Tory parliamentary group will more than double in size. What would the implications for a Cameron government be if he had over 200 Westminster virgins to control? Would most be obsessed by getting up the ministerial ladder and be content to be lobby fodder? You can argue that a reason why the PLP is so fractious is because they had so many MP’s elected since 1997 that a lot haven’t had a chance at being a minister and therefore have nothing to lose by rebelling now. Could this be a problem for Cameron’s successor?
Sockpuppet?
Posts 183 from ‘London 2012′
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/21/what-if-the-golden-rule-was-proved-right/#comment-749941
and 216 from ‘Dez’
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/21/what-if-the-golden-rule-was-proved-right/#comment-749975
Appear to be slightly reworded versions of one original ’suggested post’.
137. It’s all phrased so reasonably, “oh of course we expected this variability, old boy, its just statistical noise, oh yes back in 1998 all the best climate change experts were predicting exactly this: no global warming for a decade, followed by…. no global warming for a decade.
137. It’s all phrased so reasonably, “oh of course we expected this variability, old boy, its just statistical noise, oh yes back in 1998 all the best climate change experts were predicting exactly this: no global warming for a decade, followed by…. no global warming for a decade.
“You can’t have been listening. We always reckoned the seas would rise by five billions metres killing all life on earth apart from a squirrel in Tibet, and we now think this will happen in six hundred, years so you can’t prove us wrong. I myself am made of flogiston.”