Is Darling trying to spike Gord’s latest “re-launch”?
August 30th, 2008
Should you be betting on an early Brown departure?
The main story from BBC News overnight is the interview that Alastair Darling has given to the Guardian in which he says that Britain’s economic prospects are the “worst for 60 years”.
The timing could not have been more significant as Brown prepares for yet another “relaunch” in order to try to stem the massive decline in Labour’s support that we have seen over the past six months. That was due to start on Monday with a series of carefully choreographed announcements that will bring the PM to the fore.
But are the messages that are coming from the PM and Chancellor about the economy compatible each other? Could Darling’s “gloom” warning be seen as a way of undermining Brown who clearly has a lot of his personal political capital invested in things being less worse than might appear?
The Telegraph’s interpretation is “that Mr Darling is determined not to be blamed for Gordon Brown’s troubles”. The paper also picks up on Darling’s comment that other people are “actively trying to do his job” - a remark that will be widely interpreted as a sideswipe at the Prime Minister. ”
There has been active talk during the summer that what could precipitate the leadership issue is if a senior minister “did a Sir Geoffrey Howe” - a reference to the Tory Deputy PM’s resignation statement to the Commons in November 1990 that is seen the key factor that led to Mrs. Thatcher’s ousting. The most likely candidate that is suggested is Alistair Darling.
It’s going to be an interesting autumn and I’ve not given up altogether on the 6/1 and 5/1 bets I made earlier in the year that Gord would not survive 2008.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, you mentioned your wife found Palin’s voice grating.
The fact that she is being sold as the all American mom kind of grates with me, if any of you watch Desperate Housewives, think Bree - the too perfect over the top mom and housewife with the added twist of being a gun loving neocon.”
If you have never watched Desperate Housewives check out a clip of Bree if you can found one on Youtube and compare her voice to that of Palin!!
It’s a remarkably frank interview, but there is not a hint of criticism of Brown, or any indication that Darling is about to resign…
But he’s correct. We’re doooomed….. Doomed I tell ye…
1.should be find not found.
1 – The biggest draw back with Palin is that she is totally unveted – amazingly, last night she was unveiled in front of a crowd that was larger than the population of the town she was Mayor of two years ago! She’s never appeared on meet the press and has some potentially damaging links with Pat Buchanan.
That said, she’s a woman, she’s as far ‘outside of the belt-way’ as you could get and she provides a balance of youth to the GOP ticket (although might their be a risk she actually draws attention to McCain’s age?).
It’s a pick that could be very good for McCain but it’s also one filled with risks as there’s no way of knowing what might be unearthed by the media now, considering how low here national profile has been up till now.
4.I think she was a good choice in the short term in that it has really taken the spotlight of Obama and the Democrats the day after the big stadium speech, but not so sure about the longer term?
4. Any criticisms of Palin should be placed in perspective with the alternatives…
Mitt “life-like” Romney, for instance…
The point is that it IS filled with risks but McCain needed to take risks to have a chance of winning.
5 - Agreed, by picking a woman and a certified ‘maverick’ McCain has grabbed some the glare from the successful close to the Dem convention - it sets the GOP up nicely for their convention but i cant see much that they will be able to do at the convention itself to exploit the momentum they may gain from the Palin pick.
The big risks for the GOP is that the convention reinforces the tie between McCain and Bush (both Bush and Cheney will be speaking along with a host of familiar GOP faces, who aren’t exactly ‘flavor of the month’ with the average American voter right now) added to which McCain is not at all good at the set-piece speech (something that might also hamper him in the debates depending on the format that’s agreed)… having said that the media attention the convention will get should in of it’s self provide McCain with some sort of lift.
6 - True, the alternatives of Ridge, Lieberman, Romeny and Pawlenty were all very poor and had non of the capacity that Palin does to really add to McCain’s appeal… but, as i say, she also has the capacity to hurt McCain precisely because she is so ‘unknown’.
Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail today is a must read, it very interesting when you factor in that he was probable unaware of either the timing or content of the Guardian interview with Darling. Recession and the disturbing lesson of history from a Prime Minister in denial
“The Prime Minister is a very proud man. But he now needs to come to terms not just with the fact that his legacy as Chancellor is a mess but also - just as hurtful - that intellectually he got the British economy completely wrong.
In short, Gordon Brown finds himself in the dire position of a man who every day sees his life’s work being destroyed before his eyes.
The deeply worrying problem is that Mr Brown has yet to admit this. Like many people confronted with a catastrophe or a bereavement (and the destruction of his economic policy, for so long his pride and joy, may have hit him with the full emotional force of a death in the family), Gordon Brown has gone into a state of denial.
For almost a year now, he has been refusing to accept that the British economy is entering recession.
This state of denial explains the increasingly bizarre series of economic statements emanating from Downing Street and the Treasury.
For some months the Prime Minister has been insisting that the British economy is in a fairly decent state and, what is more, in a far better position than other major economies to confront the international economic downturn.
Everybody in the real world knows that this claim is farcical. Official figures show there are only three countries in the top 50 world economies with more profligate public borrowing policies than Britain: Egypt, Pakistan and Hungary.
Then there is the matter of the official Treasury economic forecasts, as set out by poor Alistair Darling in his Budget last March.
According to Darling, the British growth rate was set to fall only slightly this year, before recovering in 2009 and beyond.
Darling thought that borrowing would not exceed £43 billion, and that inflation and unemployment would remain reasonably stable. Darling’s Budget was pure fantasy.
It showed that the Chancellor had not the faintest idea of what was really happening out there in the British economy.”
Has Brown’s well briefed political relaunch been fatally damaged before its even got started?
Reporting from Arkansas:
Last night my wife and I joined Harrison County Democrats in Gulfport, Mississippi for their Acceptance speech party. They were expecting about 20 people but nearly 80 turned up. Everyone was very excited and enjoyed the warm-ups and then the amazing speech by Obama. I know that some of those present had marched during the Civil Rights 60s and whilst there were plenty of tears in the room there was overwhelming joy at witnessing an amazing piece of history being made.
We then travelled up to central Mississippi where we spent a couple of hours with family. This was the Republican side of our lot; the immediate response to poor old McCain’s choice of Veep was hostility among the men and laughter at the men’s reaction among the women. There was a decidedly embarassed feel to the anger of the men who had been touting McCain loudly before his announcement.
No mention was made of the Obamathon of the previous evening.
Here in central Arkansas where McCain was being touted to win big we have been unable to find ant interest at all. However, driving through some of the poor rural areas of the south we were amazed by the number of Democrat yard signs for local races.
I hope to offer some more glimpses as we make our way through Republican country to the frozen tundra.
Car sign count: McCain 1 Obama 0
Yard count: Obama 1 [actually dozens in the same garden] McCain 0.
Such excitement.
Malcolm
To the “doomsters” we must now add Darling.
11 - Very interersting. Could be that Palin is too outside-the-box for many traditionalist voters, themeselves a diverse group but pretty thick on the ground all across the USA east of the Mississippi River.
OFF TOPIC
Personally I like Sarah Palin - not her social conservatism, but instead for her fight against the good old boys - and think she’s a appealing choice. But also a risky one.
Indeed, what McCain’s choice underlines is the fact that he is a risk taker.
Now among other things, this puts the entire notion of attacking Obama as the risky option voter voters into logical jeopardy.
ON TOPIC
Why is it that everytime I see the name “Alastair Darling” I always think of “Blackadder”?
6 calling Mitt Romney “life-like” is an insult to all life-forms.
This looks like an extension to outside of election nights of Labour’s strategy to ‘predict low’ and ‘achieve’ a little better. Things may be looking dodgy but ‘60 years’ coveos some seriously bad economic periods.
let’s just hope they’ve finally found a pessimistic scenario that even they can’t undershoot, eh ?
“Darling was given a personal taste of the austere climate when ticked off by a waiter for ordering a second bottle of wine during a meal with his wife, Maggie, and another couple. “The waiter came over and said ‘too much wine’ in a loud voice. So we stuck to one bottle for the entire meal.”
Doing his bit for the economy then…
On a slightly different tack, i wouldn’t be surprised if the answer to the question posed is “no”. In fact i wouldn’t be surprised if most of the supposed “undermining the leadership” interviews in the recent past are nothing of the sort.
The problem is that nobody in the Govt is talking to each other, or at least there is no firm direction being set as a result of these talks, with the result that every Cabinet minister is going off and doing their own thing with regards to “reviving the fortunes of the Govt”. And because everyone has got a different idea of what is needed it results in a mass of ridiculously contradictory approaches, which leads the press no alternative but to make the spin that they do.
US ELECTIONS
Yesterday, Rod Crosby asked a question that was in my mind aslo, after the Palin nomination:
What if McCain now says I only intend to serve one term… ?
GOP landslide?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/29/will-they-stop-naming-streets-after-roger/#comment-757217
Stars and Stripes answered this:
McCain can’t do that. It would be a monumentally foolish concession and would hand the White House to the Democrats.
I’d love to have the opinions of others posters as well.
Thanks in advance.
15 - It’s a logical move for the Mr Bean government to relaunch itself as the Blackadder government. What we need now is for Balls-drick to come up with a cunning plan.
One thing is for sure. That secular progressive Barack Hussein Obama will start World War 3 with his naive and stupid ideas about foreign policy.
McCain/Palin 08.
How did Palin get through the vetting with this about -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UojMnCgqVA
Does not look good and will run
I’m flabagasted at Darling’s statement. To go from his previous position to actually facing the reality of just how serious a position we’re in is a huge leap. Brown has nothing left now. His tractor stats will be treated with derision. I always thought Brown would survive until 2010, but with Darling no turning and not prepared to play the fall guy, then he could be out very soon.
I think it was tat joint press conference that broke Brown and Darling’s relationship. Could you imagine Brown going to share the blame at one of Blair’s!
Video
Palin firing an M-16:
http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=QFjqZ_vvLNc&eurl=http://gunvideos.blogspot.com/
they investigated that, mike. Palin is an epic home run.
Once this remarkable news filters down into the polls I believe we could be seeing Labour getting close to 20% or maybe even sub20!
24. I too was amazed by the statement. A NuLiebour politician actually telling the truth when it is not to their political advantage!
“in order to try to stem the massive decline in Labour’s support that we have seen over the past six months.”
Pedantically, it’s really been over the last YEAR, not six months, that their support has declined, hasn’t it? Since March it’s actually been fairly stable (albeit the kind of stability you get in someone who’s been horribly injured in a car crash and is on life support).
Anyway, I draw four conclusions from Darling’s interview:
1. The Prime Minister has absolutely no authority left even amongst his senior colleagues.
2. Darling has a speck of honour and honesty about him that I wouldn’t have guessed existed at the top of NuLab.
3. The Conservatives are about to top 50% in the polls and may head towards 55%.
4. We may well see our plumbers flying to Poland to get work there soon.
re 26 Test - the investigation is still under way and is highly toxic. The charge that she used her position for family purposes and got someone fired when they would not play ball is going to run and run for the next two months.
Exclusive! Harry Hill leads double life as top Tory donor.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1050637/Billionaire-Tory-party-treasurer-faces-Britains-biggest-divorce-settlement-split-wife.html#comments
I’ve just caught up on the previous threads. Excellent piece Pyrenean of research Mike. I’m sure we can all agree that Roger’s ‘Rue’ trumps ‘Acacia’a’ Avenue’ who everyone knows was a Tory so it’s another tick in the red box…..
As for the prediction that Obama had no chance….enough said. He’s a shoo in. With all due respect to McCain you’d fear for your clothes if he was your wine waiter and choosing a VP who looks like his grand daughter is -from an image point of view- bizarre…..
As for Alistair Darling …….Labour are disintegrating infront of our eyes. Miliband has to be their only and best hope and must be odds on to be PM before Xmas.
This is pretty amazing stuff from Darling, If it is expectation management then it is surely the most economically dangerous example in history. If it is Darling just coming clean then Brown has had it.
On Palin my shallow comment is phwoarr!! and that is probably the extent to which I will comment on the US elections.
31, Milipede? Bleh. You’d be better off with Johnson, Denham or Straw.
Darling’s trying to entrench himself as unsackable. If he were fired now, it looks much more likely he’d do a Geoffrey Howe, and who would want to take over at the Treasury?
29 mike you act as if the mccain team did not know all about this. The issue cane up weeks ago. You may be sure the veep team went through it with a fine toothed comb and found it bogus.
I’d worry about Ayres if I were a Democrat.
I thought you were the all-time champion of women politicians? She will ace this. Her bluecollar husband, union membership, it’s the full package.
The US November was always going to be the side show to the main event, namely the Democrat primaries in deciding the next POTUS.
McCain’s choice of Palin has now turned this one sided side show into a freak show.
Our two foremost right slanting tipsters- Caveman/ Jan from Norway- I would like to see comments from you both today that the game is up, and anything on Bama is value.
@35:
Good morning!
I see the panic among the Obama botherers hasn’t waned overnight…
RE Darling being criticised for ordering more wine and being shouted at in a petrol station, it rings true. there was that MP who said he was fed up with being shouted at in Supermarkets(. at the time of the GE by election.)
Darling has publically acknowledged what most of us knew already.
Nobody is gloating abour what Labour has done to Britain.
For years, Labour introduced laws that made it increasingly difficult for people to business.
On boards like this, people would ask what is the point of certain laws. They’s say they would have to sack people and eventually leave the country. The reply from the lefties were simple ‘Bye. Dont let the door hit you on the way out’. The left gloated when wealth generators, the independent minded and self starters were targeted and driven out.
With the help of a complicit media, the BBC, Murdoch & Lefty Press, Labour succeeded in duping a sizable minority.
Mean while Labour persecuted decent people, signed over sovereignty to foreign powers, brought in hoards of immigrants and devalued everything that made Britain Great.
Who would imagine a worthless education system with 99% pass rates. A health service with filthy wards and cleaners unfamiliar with the operation of a toilet. A cowered police service unable to tackle criminals and council services with Stasi powers
The complacent and abstainers also had to see how bad Labour is. It would not end until it ran its full course.
26. I don’t know whether there’s any mileage in that particular ‘….gate’ but looking at the youtube linked by Mike at 23 you can see where problems might arise.
The characters on the video look like the cast of ‘One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest’ and Palin like Nurse Ratched. I don’t suppose a VP swings too many votes but spending 3 months keeping that lot hidden from view might take more energy than McCain has to spare.
On topic - no, but it shows the risks of having journalists around you picking up every remark for two days - even if they report it sympatheticlaly and all in context, other media will pick out anything they fancy and run with it.
Interested in a query from Martin in last night’s thread - as someone who likes Blair’s oratory, was I have persuaded to change my mind by it? Was thiking about it while I sleepily rustled up the muesli (Guardian reader!) and I think the answer is no. I enjoy hearing a good speech but I’m more likely to be persuaded by a 50-page briefing document, and on specific issues where I disagreed with him (e.g. his obvious reluctance to ban hunting) he didn’t persuade me at all.
And yet - what Blair’s speeches did was persuade me that he’s likeable, coherent and a strategic thinker. His PLP briefings were masterpieces in persuading us that he knew what he was doing: “we’re at point A on this issue, the public is halfway with us at point B, the Tories are moving from C to D, and we need to coverge with the public on E, because it’s what’s needed for the issue and it leaves point D completely exposed”. Persuading the audience that you’re likeable and and have a coherent approach is probably as much as you can hope for from most speeches, and S&S’s comments on Clinton bear out that first point at least. Perhaps Obama’s strongest points in his speeches are partly a sense of mission but also his level-headed coherence - a very desirable atrtribute in a President.
I’m not a great speaker myself, but I can deliver a sense of civil and honest coherence which is enough at my level of politics - it’s certainly what got me the original selection in Broxtowe, where other contestants had much more passion and a much stronger local record, but I had a concrete plan for winning the seat.
40, I thought he agreed to give an interview?
Sorry for the repetition and various sleepy slips in that last post. More coffee needed.
About the Palin abuse of power thing, does anyone know:
1) How long is the current investigation likely to take?
2) How independent the committee investigating her is likely to be - now that she’s VP would they squish the thing for the good of the party?
The scandal itself seems like the sort of thing she could survive, but if she gets convicted of wrongdoing during the presidential campaign that could be a problem…
Economy worst in 60 years eh?
That means we’re back to the days of Stafford Cripps. Labour, as usual, reverts to incompetent type.
The worst for sixty years is over hyping just as he underplayed earlier.
So Darling coupled with Milliband following Camerons lead in over pretentious behaviour regarding Russia, leaves only Johnson as a safe pair of hands, with a back story to challenge.
Incidentally the video refers to the sacking of her ‘ex brother-in-law’. Does this mean she’s been divorced?
36 “I see the panic among the Obama botherers hasn’t waned overnight…”
Even mad Rogerdamus has come out of retirement.
@40:
You know, Nick, I think that’s the problem I have with Obama.
He’s a *magnificent* orator, and there’s no sense denying that, and his speech was great to watch. But I still find, after one of his speeches, there comes the inevitable sense of ennui as it becomes clear that’s all there is to the man.
Blair had depth (alas), Obama has nothing.
On Topic
I think A Darling is trying - belatedly- to wrest control of economic policy from the prior incumbent.
Remember 10p tax and VED - all Brown inventions. All Brown claims that the poor/average will not be affected. And all blamed on: Darling.
Then the economy..
I bet Darling went ballistic when he read in the Telegraph on 22nd August!:
“Gordon Brown has defied expert forecasts, the Bank of England and even his own Treasury to predict privately that the economy will start recovering within the next few months. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2602786/Gordon-Brown-expects-swift-economic-recovery-for-Britain.html
Obvious nonsense when the BOE’s Bean said on 26th August “Downturn will drag on”
I so I believe this is a deliberate policy by Darling to cut Gordon’s legs from underneath him on the economy.. And the swift and immediate corroboration by the Treasury that what Darling said is their view.. confirms it.
I suspect Bean’s comments on 26th August and Darlings on 29th are designed (deliberatley) to ensure Gordon is boxed out of economic judgements.
As said elsewhere, Brown is in denial about the economy … and therefore anything he does (or says) is going to be wrong.
Now he is stuffed. His successor is sayiing you have screwed it up. And if Brown fires Darling, I suspect the hopuse of cards called this Government will follow.
Even Ms Flint is weighing in on benefits:
“Labour has created a housing system that encourages people to claim benefits and avoid working in order to get a council home, the housing minister has said.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2645555/Claimants-working-the-system-to-get-council-houses-says-minister.html
The Cabinet is revolting and taking power away from Gordon…
morning all, I hope you have all enjoyed the Morus reports from America. If Obama doesn’t win then it just proves America is one big basket case, especially seeing the pretty fruitcake McCain has chosen as running mate.
Alistair Darling is just telling the truth. He is facing the same situation as Captain Smith on the Titanic. The impossible is happening and unlike Captain Smith, he has neither had any relevant experience nor any training in how to deal with it and frankly he cannot.
This sums up the Labour Government. While everything is rosy, they can just ride along on the crest of the public feelgood wave. As soon as things turn sour, they panic, have no answers and rely on the Tories to bale the country out.
We saw it with Jim Callaghan/Dennis Healey and here in Scotland we have had 50 years of it.
I love the idea of a waiter telling Darling to rethink ordering a second bottle of wine when he is out at dinner or fellow car owners giving him abuse about the cost of petrol when he goes into a petrol station.
He also knows that the Tories are going to turf him out of Edinburgh South West.
I can’t wait!
So are things worse than than the early seventies?
Sounds like Darling is over egging this…just in case things don’t pick up.
To say “people are pissed off” with us is pretty revealing stuff. Maybe he doesn’t expect to stay in his job much longer.
Roger@46: I think it means her sister’s been divorced.
@47:
There was an amusing closing-of-ranks last night by concerned and shouty Obama botherers. This looked like a continuation of that phenomenon.
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
No Nick????, Is that ALL you can say… and then blather on about public speaking and getting a message across. Has it passed you by that the economic situation is absolutely grim, that Gordons been dissembling, and that the electorate is not going to be just angry but seething.
50, I think he’s overegged this. We’re certainly not going to go through an easy patch, but the worst economic situation since 1948?
Normally I’d say he’s made things seem worse so that when/if they recover we’ll all marvel at how wonderful the Chancellor is. But the odds are that it’s the Conservatives who will be in power when a recovery occurs, and will gleefully cite the Labour Chancellor’s doom-laden forecast.
Anyway, as I said earlier, he’s made himself nigh on unsackable. Surely if he said this in office, out of it he’d just blast Gordon.
19. Yes, I think that’s exactly what’s happening - noone’s talking to each other. The most important people not talking are obviously Darling and Brown, which is of itself revealing. Darling feels free to give the interview without letting No10 know what he’s going to say (because I can’t believe No10 would have cleared it had he done so). Doing so not only suggests that he thinks he’s pretty close to unsackable (and I’d agree - he knows far too much for Gordon to allow him to go to the backbenches), or doesn’t care about being sacked (much less likely), but that he has no confidence in Brown’s latest relaunch either. That too is reasonable given the impact that previous ones have had.
That he’s gone as far as he has in downplaying prospects is to me a surprise. While things might look bad for the next few months, or even a year, to suggest that they could be worse than the mid-1970s, when there was 27% inflation, the early 1980s, when Britain finally got to grips with sorting out the problems of the ’70s, or the early ’90s, when there was a seven-quarter recession, sounds like scaremongering. Maybe he feels he needs to be so dramatic in order to grab some attention. Maybe he simply wants to get the political ground laid before what I think might be one of the more interesting Pre-budget announcements. If growth has slowed dramatically, and tax receipts with them, what will the budget deficit be this year? £55bn? £60bn? And that’s before the bad debts from Northern Rock are included. Those are unsustainably high figures. Is Darling looking to cut spending or increase taxes 18 months before a general election?
@50:
No, Easterross. Electing a man with all the substance of a small ball of gas is the action of a basket case country. Fortunately, Americans seem to be (at last) coming to their senses as they realise what kind of man he is, or rather isn’t.
24/28 - he’s not “telling the truth”. The statement is ridiculous and meaningless.
Question to Nick Palmer (MP and bar);
Personally I never thought 3rd world illegal immigrants would make a wealthy country wealthy as Labour
1iedsaid - but could they make a poor country wealthy?@58:
Okay, just for you, here is some truth:
THE UK ECONOMY IS FINE AND PUTS THE REST OF THE WORLD TO SHAME
GORDON IS THE MOST LOVED PRIME MINISTER EVER SEEN
LABOUR WILL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION BY A HUGE LANDSLIDE
ALASTAIR DARLING IS MENTALLY ILL
There. Happy now?
58. It’s not meaningless; it just doesn’t mean what it says.
45.Dez. Good point. I don’t believe the public support Georgia like the politicians seem to think they do. Miliband and Cameron have hitched their rope to the wrong wagon as usual and I’m sure this wont do Miliband’s chances any good at all. We need another PM to follow the American’s lead like we need a hole in the head! Johnson might be the man.
There has been much talk on here of Darling being fundamentally an honourable and decent chap; this speech imho goes some way to confirming and entrenching this belief.
And why not? On becoming CoE he inherited one disaster after another from Gordon Brown and yet stood by him, when the grinning freak set Darling up as the fall guy for the 10p fiasco and the NR collapse, he took it on the chin. Up till now his loyalty has been unwavering but with rumours of a cabinet reshuffle and possible sacking, this looks like pay back time to me.
3rd world illegal immigrants would make a poor country wealthy:
@62:
Rogerdamus in “point your anus at the Kremlin and shout ‘take me big boy’” shocker.
60 - ?
61- fair point.
Actually reading the interview it looks as though Darling has been completely twisted in his own nuance. He says that “global conditions are the worst for 60 years” (again, nonsense at this stage) - the implication presumably being that the UK economy must be being run very well since we are doing so much better than the 70s,80s,90s et al.
58.
It sure is how old is Darling was he born in 1948,and has he had a memory loss of past recessions.
If he has could he go back and compare and contrast, the submit the essay for marks.
@66:
We don’t allow shades of gray around these parts. Darling’s basic message was (a) we’re all totally fuxx0red, and (b) Gordon is a waste of meat and so far in denial it’d take a team of sherpas a month to retrieve him.
Neither of these statements seem controversial.
40. That’s almost entirely incoherent. What’s the point of all this rubbish about Blair and the letters A through E?
I find the US President market absolutely fantastic and would be quite happy with either candidate.
But the blah blah from the two Martin’s over the last few days demeans the site…..Would you two please not be “Coxall Day” HEEHEE as your friend from Watford might say!
56 spot on. what publıc servıces are Labour goıng to cut? or are they goıng to seal theır electoral fate by raısıng taxes?
@70:
Oi, I didn’t ask for there to be a sudden influx of touchy and worried Obama-botherers to toy with.
It’s just that every time somebody pokes you, y’all squeak in such an amusing way that it’s hard not to do it again. And again.
56
I also believe he is downplaying prospects - deliberately.
Why?
One possible answer:
1. to forestall a winfall tax - which would be a disaster for energy polocy - mainly nuclear power.. as the major tax would fall on EDF (amongts others) and Centrica - who are the key to investing in nuclear.
2. To allow a cut in Corporation Tax to (say) 25% to prevent an exodus of companies growing to a flood due to the f#cked up tax regime (thanks GB)
3. To force Labour MPs to accept cuts in spending programs.
Remember , Labour’s biggest enemies on th economy are the innumerates who live in the Cabinet and backbenches. Every LAbour Government ends up with an economic mess and highly unpopular and too late spending cuts. Darling is going down the same path but more quickly.
52. Thanks Edmund.
24. Woody. What was the ‘joint press conference’? I’ve been away.
71, there is much room for cutting the fat from public services by culling unnecessary civil servants.
However, this is difficult for Labour as it would entail admitting either they’ve unnecessarily increased public spending, or that they were cutting services.
Of course, they could just use their brains, cancel the ID card scheme and call that a ’saving’. Northern Rock’s another kettle of gold-plated fish though.
64 Pakistanis could solve the poverty in Haiti.
57 Martin, clearly you welcome the idea of a woman who supports the gun-totting society, is anti-gay, anti-abortion, denies Darwinism and is trying to have her brother-in-law sacked because he dared to not conform to her ideals of a married person is the right person to lead the free world. I happen to think Obama os a breath of fresh air and frankly he is better qualified to lead the free world than the B rated Hollywood actor who was hailed as the best US president for decades.
50 Morris Dancer, I am far from sure he is. The fundamental difference is that when our economy faced previous downturns, most people with debt also had savings and their debts were a modest imposition on their incomes. Now the bulk of the country have no savings, all their assets are in their houses which are vstly over priced, the typical borrower has a mortgage in the range 4-10 x salary not 2.5 x salary. Yesterday 2 of the big 6 energy providers announced 30%+ increases in prices. How can most people cope with that?
At the moment people are fraid to use the R word for recession, but how long before they start using the D word for depression.
Maybe it isn’t yet happening in the part of the country wher you live but all over Scotland here after all house prices are still rising, adverts are starting to appear in local papers inviting private landlords to consider leasing their properties to the local authorities for council housing. That can only mean they expect a huge spike in homelessness.
To hear “experts” predicting that unemployment which according to the Government’s dodgy measurement is around 1.6 million could increase by 25% in the next 3 months to be 2 million by Christmas is frankly astounding and given that January to March are generally the flatest months for most service and retail based businesses, after Christmas how much will it grow, to 2.5 million by June?
As we were all so obsessed by Glasgow East for the past few months, on Thursday morning I decided to wander through PArkhead Forge, one of the 2 major retail centres in the constituency. Since my last visit in June 9 retails units have closed, which given that there are around 50 units in the centre is a frightening statistic and a client told me that another 3 or so are on the point of closing.
@77:
Obama is ‘A breath of fresh air’? Yes, I suppose he is. A puff of cool gas, with no substance, form or extent. An ideal analogy, thanks.
That’s your problem with Palin, I guess. It’s not so much that you disagree with her, but that she stands for *anything at all*, which must be a difficult and upsetting concept for fans of cloud-of-gas-boy to deal with.
40 “… - it’s certainly what got me the original selection in Broxtowe, where other contestants had much more passion and a much stronger local record, but I had a concrete plan for winning the seat.”
Interesting. In a safe seat, the selection committee would not have been remotely interested in a “concrete plan for winning the seat”, and could have made the choice on other grounds.
Is their a correlation between safety of the seat and competence of the MP? Although I wouldn’t vote for NickP (becuase of his stance on Iraq), he is certainly more competent than average for the House of Commons. And, indeed, most of the f*ckwits in Labour seem to have very safe seats.
71 They should inform the BoE that the 2% inflation target is put aside in this downturn and the main priority is growth.
Therefore enabling cuts in intrest rates as in the USA.
65 ““point your anus at the Kremlin and shout ‘take me big boy’””
Can I think about it?
@81:
Why break the habit of a lifetime?
O/T My 7/4 tennis tip on Minar lost from having a 2 set lead yesterday. Thankfully I managed to lay off on betfair at 2-1, but apologies for those that didn’t. Today I am backing:
Fish to beat Blake @ 9/4 with coral.co.uk with a saver on Blake 3-2 @ 7/1 with sportingbet.com
Wawrinka to beat Cipolla -2.5 handicap @ 4/6 with stanjames.com
Murray to beat Melzer 3-2 in sets @ 10/1 with sportingbet.com
Fish is on fire at the moment and reached the final of New Haven last week. Blake on the other hand has looked sluggish following his great exploits at the Olympics. He was taken to five sets in round one by world 102 Donald Young. In round two Blake was one set apiece with Steve Darcis when he benefitted from his opponent’s retirement. Blake leads Fish 2-1 in head-to-heads, but on current form I’d make it evens the pair.
My second selection is I think the best value of the tournament so far (even though odds on). Stan James have Wawrinka at 4/6 to beat Cipolla with a paltry -2.5 handicap. Cipolla is the world’s 142 against Wawrinka who is ranked number 10. Wawinka is a fast court player, Cipolla favours clay. Cipolla has won 5 ATP matches all season, Wawrinka 35.
Wawrinka has a strong serve and will not be broken easily (3 times in 2 matches) and has yet to drop a set. Cipoolla is only winning aroud 60% of the points when his first serve is in and has been broken TWELVE times in his two matches at Flushing Meadows. I literally cannot see Wawrinka winning without beating the handicap and his best match price is 1/9. I’d possibly make the handicap 1/8.
Finally I’d also back Andy Murray to be taken to 5 sets by Jurgen Melzer. He doesn’t like lefthanded servers much and Melzer was faultless in his last round. Murray has the stomach to nick it but it could very well go all the way.
77 Wow the Obamaniacs are out of their tree.
Anyone would think they they are a sect - with US voting rights.
Roger on post 31 (8.19am) said “Miliband must be their best and only hope”. By post 62 (9.26am), he was sussgeting that Miliband has “hitched his rope to the wrong wagon” and “Johnson might be the man”.
If the Cabinet are as consistent as such a Labour supporter, we now know why they are in a mess!
Nick Palmer (MP, I’m an MP you know),
could XXXXX XXXXXXX solve poverty in XXXX!
Political correctness ban word test “Illegal Immgrants”
I can’t believe Roger actually thinks the British public support Russia’s stance in Georgia. An impressive level of projection and delusion. Most people are unfortunately apathetic, but if pushed they would say putin is clearly a dangerous fruitloop doing his best to recreate the cold war.
83. URGENT CORRECTION! The match handicap for Wawrinka was for sets and not games. What a stupid market. So it’s essentially 4/6 on a straight sets win. Not a bad price, but by no means the enormous value I thought it was.
It’s the ‘embarras des riches’ that the Labour Party are fortunate enough to have two outstanding prospects. When Cameron implodes in his own vanity will IDS be making a comeback?
Nick Palmer (I’m an MP you know),
could Illegal Immgrants solve poverty in XXXX!
49. Those Flint comments are also amazing. She has not only trashed the government’s record but also proposed making council house tenancies dependent on job-seeking. If nothing else, this Labour government has moved the politics of our country substantially to the right. The Thatcher or Major governments would have been pilloried for that policy, and for the workfare policy.
I don’t think opposition to Palin is merely sexism. The fact is that she has been governor for only two years, supported the high priest of paleo-conservatism Pat Buchanan in 2000 and from the look of things is just as corrupt as the people she replaced in Alaska. The fact that McCain had to change on ANWR to accomodate her is bizzare, vice presidential candidates change to fit in with the top of the ticket not the other way around.
I still think McCain is the better candidate and should win (not least because Obama is bad for many of the reasons Palin would be a disaster. However, this ’stunt’ desrves to backfire and backfire it will.
90
That’s a great joke.
Made me laugh a lot.
It is a joke,? Surely?
Note, I meant to say ‘I don’t think opposition to Palin is to do with sexism.’
88 The lefties generally love Russia for historic reasons.
At a push they say we need more evil, tyrant superpowers to balance democratic super powers.
90 “It’s the ‘embarras des riches’ that the Labour Party are fortunate enough to have two outstanding prospects”
best to put a smiley
at the end when you make a joke, Roger.
92
If I did not know better I would have said Darling and Flint and Purnell are hatching a plan to cut back benefits for those who refuse to work.. adn by cut I mean withdraw totally.
Nah.. I’m wrong.
Easterross, and others:
Palin’s unedited comments on creationism.
” In an interview Thursday, Palin said she meant only to say that discussion of alternative views should be allowed to arise in Alaska classrooms:
“I don’t think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum.”
She added that, if elected, she would not push the state Board of Education to add such creation-based alternatives to the state’s required curriculum.
Members of the state school board, which sets minimum requirements, are appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Legislature.
“I won’t have religion as a litmus test, or anybody’s personal opinion on evolution or creationism,” Palin said.”
What’s the problem? Are you ‘brights’?
88. My guess-and certainly among the people I know-Bush is a far scarier fruitcake than Putin. And the hypocricy after the US’s invasions the last 8 years doesn’t bear thinking about.
A very frank piece from Darling but senior politicians often do these very personal interviews - it’s only unusual because it’s him doing it this time.
I sense he is rather irritated with people breathing down his neck and that may be his reason for speaking out.
Yes, the sub-prime crisis was a complete surprise and he describes it well. Nobody could have predicted how the dodgy US collaterised loans would threaten the world’s banking system.
Brown made a mistake in saying that the UK was particularly well placed to withstand the crisis. But Osborne and friendly journos like Oborne [wow, they even have similar names] are now saying that the UK’s situation has nothing to do with the international credit crunch at all, and that all the problems have been caused by Gordon “failing to save for a rainy day”.
If you repeat a lie frequently enough then people believe it. And because Labour’s rebuttal is so poor/non-existent at the moment it is letting the Tories get away with it.
#80
I assume you don’t gamble. Such logic could prove expensive.
We have the prospect of 5% CPI - and God know’s what RPI/X - and you think the BoE is serious about maintaining Rusty Brown’s 2% median rate? Your scenario would crush Sterling, import inflation and force a capital exodus!
I have to assume you are a Labour-supporter. That is the only intellectual excuse for such a nonsense!
We can use Tokyo Roger / Temnikov Roger’s broardcast to predict what will not happen.
It is very useful.
Nick Palmer (I’m an MP you know),
could Illegal Immgrants solve poverty in Bangladesh?
@99:
I’m a ‘bright’, but also I think that Palin’s about as right as a Creationist can be. Creationism and intelligent design have no place in science lessons, because they’re not science, but to say that it shouldn’t be discussed in schools if the issue arises is also unacceptable.
93. Opposition to Palin isn’t just sexism, but there is an element not only of that but also of disdain for the provincial. Looking down on her accent? That’s how people talk throughout the mid-west, Canada and Alaska. Only been in charge of a small town? Would that be a small town where people cling to their guns and religion? Well, yes, yes it would, as she’s also been criticised as a religious nut, despite having eminently moderate and sensible views.
On the sexism charge, how do you understand the term ‘fishwife’? That was bandied about yesterday. How about the idea that she should stay at home and look after her children? That one was masquerading as ’she has a sick child, shouldn’t she be looking after it’. Or how about the criticism of her as a beauty contestant? Everyone knows pretty women are stupid, right lads!!
Hmmm, so is this an outbreak of candour from Darling and New Labour?
Not really. I’m a fairly pessimistic observer on the economy, but to say we are facing the worst downturn for 60 years is a pretty extreme statement. Certainly a recession now looks very likely, but is it really going to be much worse than those in the mid-70s or early 80s and early 90s? There’s no particular reason to think so, at this stage.
This looks rather like a shift of tactics from the untenable ‘everything is fine’ approach which was attracting such ridicule. Now, Labour intend it seems to talk the economy down, emphasising the international nature of current problems. This will give them cover (they hope) for the bad news ahead, and perhaps allow them to claim some credit when Darling’s forecast economic apocalypse fails to materialise and we instead get an ‘ordinary recession’.
Palingate (Mike Smithson @ 23,29): does it matter? Not should it but does it? Presidents Clinton and Bush were elected and re-elected despite various skeletons (booze, sex, draft-dodging and shady business deals). Cameron has a 20-point poll lead here despite rumours about using drugs and vandalising Oxford eateries.
Americans, like us, elect politicians, not saints.
@106:
I was bandying about the term ‘fishwife’, but I was doing it as a way to wind up the Obama-botherers. I don’t believe that Palin’s a fishwife at all, but I realise that most of the botherers thought the description apt.
It is best not to get involved in arguments with the Obamaniacs. They cannot be reasoned with. Only time shuts them up.
Etc etc etc. Percy percy. I can see from your username that you like repetition but for the sake of your army of devoted readers can’t you try changing your inane question occasionally?
102 I don`t know who you support but I can guess.
However at least one person on the BoE believes they should be cutting intrest rates and they have`nt acted quickly enough.
I happen to agree with him.
106 — most Republican voters live in small towns so urban Democrat sneers that Palin was mayor of a small town really miss the point and are probably counter-productive.
31 “As for Alistair Darling …….Labour are disintegrating in front of our eyes. Miliband has to be their only and best hope and must be odds on to be PM before Xmas.” - Rogerdamus
On the verge of tears, David Milliband is spotted cancelling the phone lines….
111 Tokyo Roger, I value your assessment. Your skills, loyalties and judgments are well established.
113. It’s not just Republicans who live in small towns!
105. I meant ‘bright’ to mean aggressive, evangelical atheist in the ilk of the Pope of scientism Dawkins himself. Clearly you’re not one of those!
Another thread from Mike where the answer is “yes”? What is the world coming to…
Perhaps the Royal Navy could offer to rename one of their subs “The Gordon Brown” - because they both go from being launched to being underwater in a matter of moments…
And they are both likely to go nuclear if attacked.
As the guy who told PB to lay on Palin over a week ago, and resident soothsayer. (and one who profited to the tune of £600), I noe forcast the following:
A McCain win in November 2008
A Brown resignation before December 2008
This article below is more than interesting:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/30/do3007.xml
I do hope the people are not so enraged that they start lynching Labour ministers and MPs from lamp posts. If that starts happening, things will be very bad indeed.
I read somewhere that an immigrant who killed his neighbour got 8yrs (not including reductions for current early release schemes).
If lynching of Labour MPs does occur, I do hope the punishment is more severe so deter such heinous acts.
100 So your argument is basically that because Bush invaded Iraq (due to left wing neo-con interventionist dogma) then putin should have a free hand in attacking his neighbours having already crushed internal dissent through murder and intimidation. Do you really believe this?
I now; sorry
More block wardens from the Bunker party:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2648384/Environmental-volunteers-will-be-encouraged-to-spy-on-their-neighbours.html
77. Ronald Reagan, despite his dodgy acting past, was probably one of the most experienced candidates for the Presidency in the last half century.
He had been Governor of California for eight years, and challenged for the Republican Presidential nomination three times before winning in 1980. He had his fair share of political experience.
119 Tsk,tsk. Unfortunately modern lamposts are too high to string anyone up; there are plenty of trees around though.
118 All those that blather on about Nick palmer being a gentleman or a nice guy etc should remember that actually he is an authoritarian that has happily presided over the erosion of this countries freedoms.
112 Dez “at least one person on the BoE believes they should be cutting intrest rates ..”
Blanchflower ( and it is he who you quote) always wants to cut rates, always has, and sees this as the answer to all ills. So his statement that he ‘might’ call for a cut at the next meeting either suggests he has forgotten his own record ( its in the minutes) or he is for the first time unsure as to whether a cut is appropriate.
A burst of common sense like that from him would be welcome.
124 Yes. Lynching Labour MPs would just be so…so wrong!
49/92 - Flint’s comments don’t really make sense, do they? It’s the housing benefit system that is the disincentive to work, rather than council houses per se. After all, once you’ve got a council house it can’t be taken away. And paying housing benefit for private accommodation is a far greater disincentive than in council houses (once you’ve got the house) because council rents are lower so you have more to lose by finding work.
Darling wakes up and smells the coffee?
Ten years of Blair and Brown following a Conservative economic programme of pumping up both the state and the private sector on falsely-based credit, (not THAT different to Ronald Reagan) and supported almost to every jot and tittle (what alternatives have they ever seriously proposed?) by David Cameron and his predeccessors. Ten years of Conservative indifference to global events creeping up on this country and our ‘allies’ like a Tsunami from the deep? What else were we to expect?
But if the only alternative is to be the ‘Blair with less hair’ - smooth, suave and completely lacking in substance; the man who has a bucket and spade holiday for the cameras then swans off to the millionaire yacht for the real thing, then heaven help us all.
113. In many ways, a lot of Americans may find it refreshing that she *has* come from this small-town, mayoral background. McCain needed to find someone *in-tune* with Middle Americans and he’s done that. He now needs to build a campaign presenting himself and Palin as more in-tune and realistic, competant people than the Democrats. This could strike a chord on the campaign trail.
At the end of the day, all this discussion about Palin simply demonstrates that selecting her was risky, but generated more high-profile comment and interest than the McCain camp has ever had. He needed that in order to avoid falling into the ‘inevitable loser’ hole. He needed people to talk about his campaign.
She could go either way; I think she’s a good choice (especially considering the others on offer for McCain), others may disagree. At the end of the day, though, we’ll have to see how she plays in the debates and the campaign proper before we’ll know how good a choice she’s been.
Govt should cut interest rates and raise taxes.
Tax rises obviously less preferable than cutting unnecessary spending but that’s not going to happen, at least in the short term.
112. Who appointed Blanchflower to the MPC anyway? Does an empirical study of ‘Money, Sex and Happiness’ qualify you to set interest rates?
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~blnchflr/papers/sentScanJEsexmoneyhappinessjune2003.pdf
101
Nice one Emmitrude. Labour has been lying to the electorate for years, re announcing the same money over and over again, dissembling has reached such a pitch, that at last someone had to tell the truth.
Gordo not saving for a rainy day is absolutely fair comment. Gordon is more akin to Viv Nicholson, and now the chickens are coming home to roost, and its the voters who are feeling the pain..
48.
Blair had depth (alas), Obama has nothing.”"
Eh Martin?
There was more real policy in Obama’s one speech than Blair gave us in nine years. Whether he can deliver it is another thing!
Blair narrowly avoided the only ‘depth’ he deserved by jumping ship to avoid being ‘deep sixed’. The gross trite superficiality of Blair we thought was insurpassable. But wait! Cometh the Chameleon, cometh the day!
120. That is not my argument. That is just my reason for thinking that the British public can sense the reek of hypocricy and they don’t like it. Listen to any of the phone in programs or the audience participation programs like ‘Any Questions’ and that’s what you’ll hear. Remember the invasion of Lebanon? What did Bush/Blair have to say?
With regard to the main issue I suspect it’s far more nuanced than our ‘goody baddy’ mentality can cope with.
125 The authoritarianism was to pin the British people down while “irreversible” “progressive” changes were implemented.
It is a good thing it is reversible.
Easterross
Houses round Ayr: prices stable; lots at fixed price but not moving. Ayr town centre looks like tumbleweed is due to arrive any day.
The recent Labour disorder has led me to put some money on Harriet as the next PM - moving from a strong belief that Brown would be there to the GE. She needs to be in the Tory sights at the conference.
Listened very carefully to Palin after the words here; found her voice not unpleasant and her manner natural - much more so than RHC. An ‘austerity’ RNC conference might be a winner and could happen during a hurricane.
When judging Brown’s response to the economic mess we need to remember the spin at the beginning of the summer when the false choice set was tax rises or more borrowing to ’stimulate the economy’.
Borrowing was presented as preferable as it did not add to the individual tax burden.
Spending cuts were not mentioned.
So we should expect more borrowing and less taxes ‘ to help the worst off ‘ suffering from Brown’s ten years as Chancellor.
That of itself is likely to hold or even put up interest rates as it would be inflationary both directly and indirectly. The pound would stay weak or become weaker and the imported inflation we are already seeing will be worse.
Interestingly with a strong currency German CPI declined last month, unemployment decreased and even Italian CPI was only 0.1%. Overall Eurozoe CPI fell and signs are it is about to decline sharply.
Here it will keep rising. 5%, 6%? Where will it stop if Brown splurges money to bribe the electorate?
After 11 years of doing exactly what he is told, Doctor Nick Palmer has risen to the heady heights of being Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Minister of State for Energy, Malcolm Wicks, in the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform.
In our real world terms, this equates to being elevated to the role of assistant milk monitor.
If, as Gwynfa says @ 79, “he is certainly more competent than average for the House of Commons”, then why is a computer expert with 11 years of loyal service still languishing on the back benches?
Cannon fodder.
“The Alliance party would attend talks about the stand-off between the DUP and Sinn Fein over the devolution of justice, David Ford has said.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7589290.stm
Is Darling the chancellor furthest out of his depth since Geoffrey Howe?
“I was at a filling station recently, and a chap said, ‘I know it’s to do with oil prices - but what are you going to do about it?’ People think, Well, surely you can do something, you are responsible — so of course it reflects on me.”
Darling could cut fuel duty. There may be all sorts of good reasons for not doing so but it is telling he seems unaware of the possibility.
He learns things are bad from the newspapers, underestimates storm clouds rolling in from the American sub-prime crisis, and blunders into a stamp duty trap that would have been obvious to the neophyte governor of a small state in America. What is the point of this man?
141. Living in NI must be incredibly tiresome. Every week it seems like there’s some new ‘threat’ to collapse the Assembly.
142 Darling does what the mad bogey eater tells him.
142. I’m no fan of Geoffrey Howe, but he was a pretty good chancellor. Darling is utterly hapless by comparison - more like John Major was as Chancellor.
142 – John L, your loyalty to Gordon Brown is commendable, although personally I find your character assignation of Darling and exoneration of Brown’s responsibility somewhat dishonest and a little deluded.
Is this latest line of defence/attack, Brownite policy, or yours personally and a remarkable coincidence?
Darling is the Tin Man from the ‘Wizard of Oz’ who has finally found his heart (or conscience in the Badgers case). Blair was the Cowardly Lion who wouldn’t sack Brown when he had the chance, and the PM is the incompetent Wizard behind the curtains.
The idiot Scarecrow could be any of the rest of them (or even the witless electorate who keep voting them into power)
Dorothy is a friend of Gordon’s.
130-the most sensible & balanced comment about Palin so far.Others take note.
I like the way Mike’s screengrab at the top of the thread also manages to capture Man United’s defeat last night. Good work.
138. If I were advising the Republicans, ‘austerity’ is the way I’d want to go. They need to demonstrate complete contrast from the sleek Hollywood-esque Obama bandwagon.
This is the perfect election for an upturned soapbox approach a la John Major in 1992. ie - down to earth, appear ‘connected,’ ‘real’ and understanding. That is what McCain and Palin need to do - they need to fight this election in an unglamourous and gritty way. They need to get out there and connect with ordinary voters. They need to appear like they’re on the side of the common man, more plugged-in to his worries, more interested in governing to help people as opposed to concentrating on the next big rally.
Of course, it is wrong to transfer UK politics to the US. And Obama is no Kinnock. People broadly like Obama, and he’s a polished performer. Kinnock was disliked and ridiculed for most of his career. But John Major did show that *if* you appear more in-touch, less complacent and fight the election on the street, you can do very well against the odds. I think this is McCain’s biggest chance.
It’s actually a very nice interview by Decca Aitkenhead. She’s one of my favourite journalists and I can understand Darling being unguarded having spent two days with her on a Scottish Island.
He sounds genuine and she reports without seeming to realize the political significance. Probably because she doesn’t usually do political intereriews. Infact he says nothing that taken in context is earth shattering. The most ungarded is probably that he doesn’t like Wendy Alexander but most Scottish politicians dislike each other so what’s new?
40. Nick, thanks for that! Most interesting - As just a member of the public i think Blair was at his best around 9/11. He was someone you could empathise with people’s feelings on the event’s of that day and draw some comfort form his rhetoric! Some people say the same about Diana but i never felt that, I had been recovering from a majorly serious assualt just a few weeks earlier and so was disinterested in the wider world. Interestingly that film “the Queen” fills in some of the gaps there but one has to reflect the fact that some of this is fanatsy!
The press often say the same about his PLP speeches, they were obviously accurate as he for his alleged lack of roots in the Labour party seems to have reached it in ways no other Labour leader has before or since! Blair was an exceptionally gifted party leader, that is not the same as being a great PM (Just to reasure those who think i may have turned!).
I’m surprised anyone here thinks Darling has “over-egged” the extent of the economic difficulties facing the UK. The problems we face are every bit as bad as he admits they are. In fact, as one of the worlds biggest debtor nations, our prospects are appalling as we are all about to discover in the months and years ahead.
House prices crashing by nominal falls of 40% and more, an inflation producing sterling crisis, fast rising unemployment, repossessions, and banruptcies with all the attendant social ills are just some of the consequences of the government and half the population living way beyond their means for the past five years or more.
That’s not gloating just fact. We’re all going to be paying the price in falling living standards and quality of life for years to come.
142 “What is the point of this man?”
Darling has been Browns loyal, unquestioning flunkey upto now. That is the point of him
Perhaps that’s all about to change. We shall see.
153. Yes, the economic crisis is going to be one hell of a shock. With people living beyond there means for so long it is going to be such a shock that been ’shouted at in supermarkets’ will be the least of people’s problems.
Just a thought on Darling, he was told not to get another bottle of wine by a waiter - seems an odd thing for the waiter to say, just hope for darling that non of the kitchen staff added extra ‘mayoniase or bread source’ to his meal! Something unpopular politicians have to watch for!
Roger at 151 -
Yes it’s a very good interview, and Darling comes across as a nice person. A good, reliable, Scottish solicitor. Someone you would be happy to have look after your will or some conveyancing.
However, he’s a completely unsuitable person to be Chancellor. Learning about an economic crisis from the newspapers in Majorca?!!! WTF? And what on earth is going on at The Treasury that he wasn’t briefed by them?
We have Ministers running great offices of state with no understanding whatsoever of the departments they are meant to be running. I wouldn’t get a plumber in to fix my fusebox - yet we have clueless lawyers and useless academics dealing with complex economics that effect everyones lives.
David Herdson is right. Darling’s comments reflect the complete lack of communication at the very top of government. But they do not presage a Darling resignation and nor are they meant as a criticism of Brown. PBers are reading far too much into this. If Darling was planning to resign he would not go about it in this way. Brown is safe this year. I will take 4/6 off any PBer who thinks differently and is prepared to put their money where ther mouth is.
A further robust refutal, aimed at the Palin critics, will follow shortly.
131 Alex: “Govt should cut interest rates and raise taxes.”
On the contrary, they should cut taxes and raise interest rates, and I’m surprised that you as a Tory cannot see that.
155 LOL Poor old Alistair has been taking “extra mayonnaise” up the @rse from Gordo for years!
Mark Steyn: Palin is “hyper-American”
–>…”a beauty queen who hunt caribou and serve up a terrific moose stew…”
–>”…for the gun-totin’ Miss Wasilla then to go on to become Governor while having five kids…”
–> “Sarah Palin and Barack Obama are more or less the same age, but Governor Palin has run a state and a town and a commercial fishing operation, whereas (to reprise a famous line on the Rev Jackson) Senator Obama ain’t run nothin’ but his mouth.”
–> “Governor Palin has … a life beyond politics.”
–> “she’s lived the Second Amendment all her life.”
–> “she’s been to ANWR and, like most Alaskans, supports drilling there.”
77: House prices are NOT rising in Scotland. They are higher today than they were a year ago, which is an entirely different thing. They are coming down with a small lag compared to the rest of the UK. UK peak was October 2007, Scotland maybe Spring 2008ish.
Amazed people still talking about the US election when one of the most remarkable events in UK politics for years has just happened. Darling’s statement is absolutely extraordinary. How on earth can Brown keep him in his cabinet? It’s all over for Brown, surely. He cannot go on with no support and with the main plank of his reputation just blown away.
Has he been seen in public since he went to the beach in his lounge suit?!
Palin is an inspired breath taking choice. At times when she spoke yesterday she was a bit shrill but she improved as she went on. All she has to do is lower her voice. But she connected brilliantly with her audience. She is an extremely effective and warm communicator. She is an all American super Mum and key parts of the US electorate will love her.
As for Palingate, this has been known about for ages and McCain’s team will have looked into it and must formed a judgment that it doesn’t have legs. It could even be seen as a strength, demonstrating decisive action.
She is a gamble but McCain needed to gamble. I’m impressed.
159 I was speaking metaphorically, of course!
159…..You can take the boy out of the Stretford End but you can’t take…….
Discovering that Darling was on the Isle of Lewis does rather explain why Brown went to Southwold. Short of taking a B&B in Dover, or a week on Canvey Island, it was about as far as Gordon could get from his Chancellor without going abroad.
14 - SSI - Palin wasn’t McCain’s choice, if she was going to be his choice he would have taken time to get to know her and would have met her more than once.
You can’t take a campaign seriously where the team have never met, he wanted Lieberman or Ridge, Romney if forced, everyone knows that, Rove put the frighteners on him and McCain’s ‘team’ have foisted their choice on him, an ultra-conservative more at home with Limbaugh, Buchanan and Hannity.
McCain is a puppet, at best.
161. Given that Darling has been cited as a safe pair of hands who measures his words etc, I would have to agree - this is curtains for Brown! The two most senoir offices after PM (Home Office has been split) are the C of E and Foriegn Sec - both holders of the said offices have overtly critised the PM’s policies and the general direction of policy under Brown’s tenour of office. They are either grossly incorpetent or scheming Brown’s political demise!
79: MPs in safe seats are more likely to have a strong local track record: taking someone from outside is a bit of a gamble, and a safe seat is so attractive that it will have a range of well-known local people queuing up to have a go. I’m not sure I’d generalise more than that.
percy: I’ve no opinion about illegal immigration in Bangladesh.
158 - well, one of the two…
I don’t know why my presumed political leanings should give me any insight into the thing!
162
“she connected brilliantly with her audience”
……of handpicked GOP loyalists….what on earth did you expect!!! LOL
I agree with you that it is a brave choice, but I reckon it will be more of a short term benefit (couple of weeks). I just can’t see how someone brand new can be a game changer in two months.
157. Dpends how you look at it. As I mentioned last night I didnt think Darling was taking a direct stab at Brown’s position (though you can never rule this stuff out) but if he’s anywhere near right, you can see where Labour’s chances are in the next GE.
162 - I flicked to cnn for coverage of the trooper story and found out in less than a second that one of this trooper’s (who Palin allegedly leaned on to be fired) violations was tasering a ten year old child.
Like I said, McCain’s team knew all about this when they vetted her and found out there was no there there.
Palin is great. Just look at how the Dems are crying.
http://frum.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhOWE0N2VkOWI3MDdlODRlZWE4ODljMDc2NjliZDk=
Many conservatives aren’t happy.
“But question: If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?”
169. Don’t worry alex he’s just trying to insult you!
79. That’s why i want NP to be Huddersfield’s MP! (If you have to have a Labour MP, might as well have a good one instead of Sheerman - who is a great servant of himself but of the people he has much to learn!
Palin and alleged anti-semite Buchanan.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Buchanan_Palin_was_a_brigader_for_me_in_96.html?showall
“Perhaps Rep. Robert Wexler’s instincts were right here, and the Obama campaign will likely drive this one home with the Jewish community in Florida and Ohio: Palin (along with her husband), says former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, was a “brigader for me in 1996.”
He was responding to a question on “Hardball” from Chris Matthews about whether she was a member of Buchanan’s brigade “wielding the pitchforks,” a reference to his conservative populist campaigns of the 1990s.
“They were at a fundraiser for me,” Buchanan said of Palin and her husband. He called her a “terrific gal” and a “rebel reformer.”"
173 Marc Ambinder on Palin:
“most of the strategists and consultants I’ve spoken to, e-mailed with, or read/watched are struggling with it. They expect her to have a good week… and then to crash and burn when she hits the campaign trail as scrutiny catches up with her.”
I said that the ‘bad mother’ meme would grow if they picked Palin and, lo and behold, here we are.
Do these people *ever* put themselves into the minds of people outside their own bubble? it doesn’t seem like it.
“No sooner did my best friend hear about the Sarah Palin pick than I received an e-mail from her. It said simply: “Sarah Palin is a Bad Mother!”
I was at work but could not resist giving her a call to follow up. She told me that she was watching CNN and heard that Ms. Palin had 5 children and that one was only 4 months old and born with Down Syndrome. “How in the name of GOD, can she even think about leaving her child or taking her child on the campaign trail for 70 days?” She was indignant.
Let me tell you why My best friend Liz matters. She is 37 years old and Catholic. ”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/misreading-amer.html#more
173 — It’s a gamble, UkPaul. Everybody agrees on that.
McCain is here to play; he wants to win; and he’s obviously willing to take risks.
Let’s see now how it will play in the coming polls… and, of course, in the markets…
173. “But question: If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?”
To that i would reply, would you put an untested former coke-head in the presidency, just-one heart beat away from being left experienceless if Biden carked it?
172 “Palin is great. Just look at how the Dems are crying.”
Tears of joy. Obama is home and hosed….
I’m not sure that many (or any!) voter would vote one way or the other based on who the VP might be. However if McCain is seen to have as his political partner someone who looks like his nurse it wont look good when they campaign together.
UKPaul - Don’t Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
147.
“Dorothy is a friend of Gordon’s.”
called David Cameron.
173 ukpaul not “many conservatives”. Look on all the major sites, they are ecstatic. Michelle Malkin… you name it. I don’t see the leftwingers waxing lyrical over Biden though.
I guess we’ll see how this pans out over the campaign. My sense is this is a game-changing pick. I almost could not bear the suspense when I read it might be her. I’ve said on PB for months now that she was my absolute top choice but I didn’t think McCain would do it. Underestimated him.
182. I don’t know - I find Nurse outfits kinda kinky!
142 re loyalty to Brown. PFI alone should see Brown up against the wall. Then there are the ludicrous stunts which blew up in his face, not least the election that never was. No, I’m no Brownite.
But the main cause of Labour’s poll woes is that people are skint, and not because Brown’s hands are a bit funny at PMQs, or whatever line Tory astroturfers are pushing this week. Replacing Brown with Miliband really won’t affect the price of fish.
145 re Howe. In laying waste to much of British industry and causing mass unemployment, he unleashed many of the social problems we see today. The man himself admitted the first Thatcher government went too far. Later, as an economic pundit during the ERM crisis, he showed no understanding of the markets he so admired, even needing to be told we’d effectively devalued when Lamont pulled out. Earlier, in denying plans to double VAT, well, from eight to 15 per cent isn’t quite double (though it is inflationary). Howe brought us recession, 20-odd per cent inflation and 3 million unemployed. What’s to like?
180 Admittedly, George W Bush is hardly the best advert for putting a former coke-head in the White House - but sauce for the goose and all that….
Paul, isn’t all this stuff you are digging up exactly the sort of thing you criticised Obama critics of?
172.
“Palin is great”
Vote Cleese-Palin!
176. It’s dishonest to cherry-pick from an article like that. Here’s the sentence you left out:
“She doesn’t appear ever to have contributed to Buchanan, however.”
More than this, why are you posting an out of date article? Here’s Ben Smith’s latest post:
“A Republican seeking to defend Sarah Palin from association with Pat Buchanan sends over a long press release from Jan. 17, 1996, listing his top Alaska supporters.
Palin’s name doesn’t appear as a “brigader” — as Buchanan described her — or in any other capacity.
So far, it’s just Buchanan’s word on her role, then. The campaign didn’t have an immediate comment.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Why do you do this? It’s as if you’re campaigning on a site where next to no-one is eligible to vote.
erm… you’re quoting rabid Obama supporter Andrew Sullivan on why mom of five Sarah Palin is a bad mother?
176. UKPaul. For one who is always preaching about going for the ball not the man your character assassination by association is a bit odd
190 a ticket all PB can get behind!
180. Exactly. How can Obama supporters possibly criticise Palin as too inexperienced to be the understudy when their equally inexperience man is going for the leading role?
It could be said that Darling is saying something else, when he says people are ‘pissed off’ with the economy. Maybe what Darling is really saying is the people (and Darling) are pissed off with Brown and this coded attack on his policies.
156.
“(Darling)’s a completely unsuitable person to be Chancellor.”
Quite so. That makes him only ten times more suitable than the hopeless little prig Osborne.
187,
“PFI alone should see Brown up against the wall. ”
Indeed. A classical Conservative con-trick. Blair’s Tory agenda perpetuated by his chancellor and successor.
Live BBC New 24 - Breaking News: David Miliband out to get Darling.
Darling now on TV and someone interjected when Darling was being interviewed, the interview broke down and David Miliband’s name was mentioned (In the background). Darling noded his head and said someone was trying to interupt him……..
196Wage Slave
Evidence for this assertion.. assuming you have any that is…
171. Yokel. Completely agree with that. It’s curtains for Labour at the next GE. In fact this makes it less not more likely that Brown will be replaced.
With the economy reportedly in such dire straits there is much less likelihood of Labour MPs being persuaded that replacing Brown will reap a major electoral advantage. It would but I don’t think they will buy it. What we should all buy is Tory seats and sell Labour. It’s the best political bet going, apart of course from Palin 2012.
The Guardian interview was conducted two weeks ago!
This obviously means it is intended to maximise pressure to shift Brown.
The obama lovers are starting to panic-WONDERFUL.
If Ms. Palin has indeed had political/campaigning links to Pat Buchanan in the recent past, I suspect that could have an adverse impact with the all-important ‘centrist’ vote for which both Obama and McCain will be seeking in the actual campaign. You’d have thought this aspect would have been fully explored in the due diligence process, but maybe not.
202. Please, do grow up. I’m an Obabma supporter and am not panicking. Equally, if I were a McCain supporter, I wouldn’t be panicking either.
203. A bit like the Obama / Larry issue - How could the Dems. not investigate that? It is still ongoing and Obama has not commented on it. If Bush’s silience on his alleged drug usage in his path is a sign of guilt what does this say about Obama and his?
Obama is doomed - the Republicans have out manouvered him!
204. You are panicking though - It is over for Obama before it began. The flames of Obama’s torch have been blown and and the embers are losing there glow by the hour!
2008 = 1988!
185 - Test you do make me laugh, quoting Michelle Malkin as some sort of touchstone.
Malkin is mad (and so is Steyn - see above - his theatre reviews are crap as well).
Who needs to wax lyrical over Biden? People know how strong he is, Saakashvili asked *him* to go to Georgia, that’s how experienced he is. He’s also fun and lightens up the ticket even more.
If Palin can indeed unify the base, then, –> does that mean that Mac can be Maverick yet again?
205. Larry Sinclair is clearly a con-artist.
189 - Alex, they started it. What do you want? Someone smashes you in the face and you just ask them to please stop?
Anyone who starts negative campaigning deserves it back in spades.
They believe that anyone to the left of them will just cower and not fight, they think they are ‘girls’ or ‘effete’ (just two recent quotes). If only the Democrats had done this before we wouldn’t have had Bush for eight years.
If Tom Watson or other associated scum starts attacking his opponents then I am quite happy to do the same back to them as well.
Bottom line - defend yourself.
209.Well i hope for Obama he is or his Camelot and renaissance of the JFK brand will have an interesting twist!
191 - Because that’s when he was running.
Sigh…..
I read the partisan stuff from people like yourself and a handful of others and respond to it with the opposite, I’m not allowing you to sway people’s betting by giving a one sided view.
Re Obama vs McCain:
There’s not a lot of nuance on this topic! Martin (and david lawrence and a few others) thinks that Obama is the stupidest man alive, that Palin is the greatest pick ever, and that the election will be a Republican blow-out.
Now, replace the word ‘Martin’ with ‘ukpaul’, etc. etc.
Truth be told, nothing about this election is set in stone yet. I can give you a dozen scenarios where McCain sweeps the board (another al Quaeda attack, Iran testing a nuclear bomb, the ‘whitey’ tape being found, etc. etc.), and another dozen where Obama cleans up (GM files for Chapter 11, McCain has an aneurysm, etc.)
This board is much more interesting when we talk about probabilities and possibilities; voting patterns and GOTV efforts; strategies and policies. It is terribly boring when people claim that Obama is practically the messiah, or mentally retarded.
Please, please, please, let’s keep the bizarre partisanship out of the commentary.
166 - Hit the nail right on the head (though I’d take McCain as a puppet than Obama unplugged). Even the message on the podium ‘Putting country first’ suggested that McCain was going to go with Lieberman right up until the last minute. In fact Palin’s pick made it sound ironic.
This is the semi-unhinged publicity stunt I’d expect from someone like David Cameron rather John McCain - a trip to Alaska rather than a trip to a Norweigan glacier.
193 - Roger, they started it. They are surprised to find people fighting them in the same manner this time though.
213. ITA again. I’d put McCain and Obama 50/50.
NRO : “The choice of Palin signals a decisive turn toward a campaign theme of fighting for the middle class.”
“they need to show that they share middle-class frustrations.”
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NWIyZDUxOGE5MGQxNWI5ZDhkYmQ2OTU0N2M2ZTI5NzA=
From Hot Air:
McCain camp claims $3 million poured in by 6 pm ET after Palin pick.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/29/palin/
215. ‘They started it so I’ll do it too!’
… what happened to “Change you can believe in”?!
213. Spot on.
199.
The burden of proof is upon Osborne to come up with something substantial to suggest that he is more suited to be Chancellor than (say) the average roadsweeper is. The country has had thirty years of basically Conservative government with the rich getting richer having been padded out by non-market solutions and their chums in government (of whatever theoretical ‘colour’) stuffing their faces and their pocket.
All we are likely to see from Osborne (who has nodded along to most of ‘New’ Labour’s Tory agenda like a donkey on white powder) is more padding of the non-contributing wealthy to keep their end up of the sinking ship.
207. Here’s your post in slightly different words:
Michelle Malkin = LOL
Malkin is a nutter.
Steyn is a nutter.
Biden = STRONG MAN.
Perhaps you should review your posts from last night?
“310 - Just read your comment, why are you claiming that others said what you you said? Why claim that others are shouting when it was you?
I really don’t understand why you did that?”
by ukpaul August 29th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
stjohn, 162: exactly. Palin is a gamble. Perhaps a brilliant one. She appeals to a demographic McCain has had little success with, while shoring up the base.
*But*, she is also untested. Who knows if she has any skeletons in the closet, or if she will be able to handle the next 60 odd days of the campaign.
I’m intrigued by Palin. She may be just what the Republicans ordered. But calling her a masterstroke before the campaign has begun in earnest is… errr.. premature.
Philippe @208: I think that’s the strength of the pick. (Although I’m a bit sceptical that it’s worth the downside of blowing away McCain’s “inexperience” attack on Obama, which I thought was the strongest he had.) Republican diehards know what she stands for and see her as one of them, while independents are more likely to hear the “working mom” thing and the outsider narrative.
Reaching independents while enthusing the base is the circle that McCain’s campaign has to square, and it’s a very difficult problem. On balance I don’t think McCain will be able to pull it off, but if anyone can do it, he can. And I don’t think it’s too late for him to pivot back to attract independents; Once he’s sewn up the base he could even make a big show of firing his traditional Republican non-Maverick team…
PS. Martin Day, at the risk of troll-feeding, don’t you think it would be worth waiting a couple of days for the inevitable polls showing McCain leading by 10 points before you declare the whole thing over? If you’re right McCain should be ahead in the Gallup tracker by Tuesday…
213 - But, as opposed to them, I am backed up by the polling where McCain hasn’t led in polling averags for months.
I don’t come here claiming that lib dems will win, my support is one thing, my view of who will win is totally evidence based.
Ask the McCain supporters who say he will win what evidence they have to support their assertion.
212. You still don’t get it UKPaul - the very fact that you associate Palin with Buchanan helps the Republicans not the Democrats. Why? - Dog whistles - the nutcase right will think she is one of them! People who arn’t Republican’s will think what they will of people from that part of the party. You must remember what you do not like about US politics is not what the US electorate think. You may have been against Buch circa 2004 (I didn’t want him re-elected) but the US gave Bush over 50% of the vote - something which Clinton never got! I don’t think you have a full understanding of how the two party system works over there and see it through a UK prism. US politics is radically different in it’s two party nature. In the UK the four plus party system creates different dynamics.
221 - That was about Martin C, not you.
Mathew, I’d give Obama a tiny edge (based on the electoral college and differential turnout), but I’ve been buying McCain on bf because there is no way I’m touching Obama at an IP of more than 55-56%
Good to see that I’m still the person that teh right think they have to harry inn any case. All the usual suspects have been on here this morning and as soon as I link to articles that negate the view they were putting across I get attacked and misrepresented.
It’s typical of the party they appear to support though so I expect it now.
225 - Martin, it’s the centre that matters at the moment, not the base, the GOP should be able to rely on their base.
test
One thing I will say about Palin. She looks a fine piece of M1LF. To use popular American vernacular…
But doesn’t she just serve to show how much of a dinosaur McCain is, and make the V-P choice all the more critical for voters when the prospective President is in his seventies?
If McCain does win, does this open the door to a 2012 bitch-fight between that awful Clinton woman and Palin, assuming the aged McCain doesn’t stand for a second term or has already croaked by then?
Whilst the selection of Palin has perked me up a bit, despite her medieval views on certain issues, I do still hope Obama carries this off, and brings about change (something Dave can only benefit from here). And that should end Clinton’s political ambitions once and for all, and that can only be a good thing…
I would be interested in hearing Nick Palmer’s views on Palin and whether she improves McCain’s electoral prospects or not.
220
“Likely to see”, thats what I thought, no evidence just suspicion and assumption. “Not Guilty M’lud
210 - Do you see yourself as some sort of UK representative for the Obama campaign or something? Taking it all a bit seriously methinks. People might argue that what is said in the comments section on here has the potential to impact on the UK political scene, but you are surely the only person who seems to think that this extends to America!
204-I’m very comfortable with my age thank you but until you can appreciate this man is extremely over-hyped & behind his greasy smile their lies nothing of real substance then I will continue to point this out.
Matthew Partridge@213: “I’d put McCain and Obama 50/50.”
You mean you no longer think Obama is toast?
Say it ain’t so…
212. Listen mate. I put forward what I think. I prefer McCain, and I think that although Obama is the favourite, if the race is still close in Novemeber, McCain will edge it. This is for reasons that I have set out before. I am more than capable of seeing other people’s point of view, and I come to this site to do so. You do not help by making sweeping dismissals of your opponents as ‘mad’, ‘nutters’, ‘extremists’ and so on.
‘Because that’s when he was running,’ is an absolutely mystifying sentence.
“the right think they have to harry in”.
Obviously.
Okay, I think the scales are balanced for now, hopefully betters will realise now that Palin is not the wonder pick that she was being painted as.
233 - :). I was thinking that the last few days were so reminiscent of the 2005 UK GE election campaign. And, if spats have to happen, then yours with Graham then were top of the range quality
Darling has just given a truly, jaw-droppingly awful interview to BBC News. Something has to give now - we can’t have simpletons trying to steer a way trough the mess, not with the possibility of more bank failures to deal with over the coming months.
Does anybody have information on polling prior to the 2004 election? It would be interesting to make the contrast between what the polls said and what happened. I’m just recalling that Bob Worcester ‘President Kerry’ moment.
228. No, McCain is a different beast to Bush politically. McCain does not appeal to the religous right in the way Bush did and some of Bush’s 2004 coalition (Gun’s, God etc). Yes elections are won in the centre and McCain has been judged as a centre/ party maverick politicain. Again, you are fighting the last war! US politics has shifted from 2004 and indeed shifted on somewhat from 2006! The dynamics have shifted.
To Edmond in Tokyo, No i do not expect a 10% McCain lead by next tuesday! But i still think a Republican victory extremely likely in 2008 for the Presidency whilst the House and Senate may well swing left. Interestingly if you look at this stage of the campaign in 2004, the position between the Dem’s and Republicans is similar in the presidential race at this time. Obama’s best week is behind him in the campaign - McCain’s has yet to come:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
234 - Say whatever you like - if it makes you feel better - about the candidate, but perhaps rather less of the claim that moderate, middle-of-the-road supporters of Obama are panicking. Which demonstrably we are not.
Does anybody have information on polling prior to the 2004 election? It would be interesting to make the contrast between what the polls said and what happened. I’m just recalling that Bob Worcester ‘President Kerry’ moment
11 malc19ken
Interesting reaction you noted in Mississippi. I was in our New York office yesterday and everyone was watching the Palin speech while having lunch. Comments from our younger employees (Ivy league educated, under 25s)were vitriolic and dripping with contempt - guffaws at mention of “hockey mum” and “USA” chants, “Who cares - its alaska”, “Wow - the PTA” etc etc. They are all fanatical about Obama and their general view is that Obama should be 20 points clear and isn’t because there are loads of uneducted bigots in the middle of the country.
The exception was the guy who delivers the mail on the floor - 40 something Latino - who kept saying what a great country it was and how wonderful that Palin’s own son had enlisted and that she had kept the Downs pregancy. He was tearing up.
david, 234 (and Martin Coaxall and anyone who thinks Obama is an idiot)
The model answers from Obama’s constitutional law class at Chicago are on the Internet here (courtesy of the NY Times). It is hard to call him stupid or vacuous (or indeed an extreme liberal) after reading them.
The answeres won’t persuade you of his readiness to be C-in-C or President, but they are intelligent and well thought out.
236 - And that’s the first inkling you’ve given that you think Obama is the favourite. Anyone reading this thread, and many recently, would have been forgiven for thinking the opposite and putting their money on his opponent.
If things are one-sided then that does this site a disservice. On UK politics it is but that bias follows the market so there is no need for a corrective. On US politics at the moment the volume of posts against Obama suggest that he is not the favourite and that is not the case (it may change but people claiming that need to give good evidence if they are getting people to follow their advice with money).
I think people may be swayed into parting with money in a not necessarily advantageous way. It’s up to people to create a better balance of comments, even in the face of their ganging up on you. That’s what I’ doing.
If people think Obama is a Muslim then that affects betting but it cannot go unchallenged. If people think Palin is a bad mother then that affects betting but I would expect it to be challenged. If one side is put out there as evidence then all sides should be, I’d prefer to stick to policy but people don’t seem to want that.
242: on the RCP averages, Bush was +1 to +3 in the preceeding month. I suspect Obama will slightly underperform his polls (no evidence, just assuming a mild Bradley effect), but against that, he does have a small advantage in the electoral college this year.
233 - Alex, it’s a betting thing, the comments are one sided in a way that goes against the betting prices.
Yes, I want him to win, but I also want people to get a true picture and not be swayed into reckless betting, just because they only see one side.
242. Try this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
You can go back to the same day in 2004, you can also go back to previos days and compare: it’s good as it displays all the states.
222. Sensible comment on Palin. As I said earlier, it’s clear she stirs up the race one way or another. We don’t know which way yet, so we can just offer personal hunches.
Mark my words; this election is a close one. Neither candidate has it in the bag and what happens over the next couple of months is going to be absolutely crucial. I am merely wary of writing off McCain and annointing Obama as the definite winner this early on, when we still have the Republican convention, the campaign and the debates to go. This, along with the fact that I think people sometimes underestimate the fact that America is, largely, a conservative nation and tends to shy away from ‘dramatic’ ‘radical’ changes.
Ideologically I doubt I really fit into the Republican or Democratic mould. And as I said last night, I’m not entirely impressed with either candidate. I’m trying to take a detached view from it all and offer my personal opinions and arguments as to various actions as they happen.
If you try this day in 2004 for the Presidency Kerry was further ahead than Obama:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug25.html
250. Sorry that is the 25th August - just to say that i don’t think Obama is in the strong position many think he is!
231: stjohn, FWIW (and I’m not sure my opinion on US voting trends is worth much), she seems a good choice - for a start, it’s got everyone talking about the GOP ticket, and objectively she’s more interesting as a VP candidate than Biden - not necessarily good, but interesting. I also think the ‘bad mother’ stuff is very dirty politics - it would rule out both Brown and Cameron too (unless one takes the ultra-sexist view that dads don’t matter to children with medical difficulties), and it doesn’t make sense: as VP she’d be more than able to ensure that her children have a good upbringing. Will many voters feel hostile? Not unless they’re against her already.
I doubt if it’s of first-order significance, though - people will have digested it and moved on in a couple of weeks, and we’ll be back to Obama-McCain, which seems to me too close to call, though Obama probably retains an edge.
Martin - 250 - that is individual states’ polls. Some of them used were months old.
If you look at the nationwide polls, Bush maintained a narrow but real lead through the last two months. (Individual states’ polls gave Kerry a misleading impression of strength - as, indeed, many posters on this site pointed out at the time.)
To reply to myself - not that I think Obama is in that strong a position! Just to repeat my post from up thread, this race is wide open.
242. It is interesting to see that Kerry led for the majority of the campaign, often by a bigger margin than Obama leads now. Perhaps there is a shy GOP factor at play. Both then and now?
236. I have said the same thing MANY F*CKING TIMES. The fact that you come on here and make sweeping claims about those who disagree with you, failing to look at what we actually say is a different matter entirely. It is boorish and dishonest.
If you want people to get a fair balance of views stop selectively posting links without the sections that show your claims to be exaggerated. Stop ignoring the evidence posted on the same blog that contradicts what you say.
That does not give good evidence for people to bet on, it is misinformation.
239.
“we can’t have simpletons trying to steer a way trough the mess”
Better put Darling in a barrell with Osborne and float them down the river then!
242:
This is useful. The first part of the race looks similar, but in August Bush moved into the lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
257.
For all: Polling Report shows the nationwide polls. Kerry led at end August (post convention bounce) but never tool the lead again.
252 - The ‘bad mother’ comment is merely my reposting of an email to Andrew Sullivan from a voter.
It isn’t coming from any campaign, it’s coming from voters.
That’s useful to know.
There is also the sexist view (wrongly in my opinion) that a father is okay doing this but not a mother. It’s clearly the view of the women in the email (again, I think wrongly) but it may need addressing in the future.
256 - Why are you swearing at yourself?
Anyway, the posts I linked to were by respected journalists Ben Smith and Andrew Sullivan, nothing of importance to the main point was left out (who cares about donations as opposed to actual help?). If you want to complain, go to them.
Sincere apologies if this has already been posted.
There was relief for beleaguered Labour and a shock for Tories in this week’s only two council by-elections.
It held on at Wickersley, Rotherham Borough, South Yorkshire, in a ward where Conservatives had won another seat in May’s main polls.
The BNP scored 19.2% in third place.
Tories saw their majority slashed to just 10 votes by Liberal Democrats at Pimhill, Shrewsbury and Atcham, where they had previously taken more than 80%.
The new borough councilor will serve only until next April when the council is merged into a new Shropshire unitary authority.
There were only two comparable contests this month; not enough for a nationwide projection calculation. But including two other results from July 31 gives a projected Tory lead over Labour of 14.3%.
Allowing for observed differences in relative party support when past parliamentary and council elections have been on the same day, this suggests a net swing back of just under 2% to Labour since its May disasters.
RESULTS:
Rotherham Borough - Wickersley: Lab 871, C 824, BNP 538, Ukip 373, Lib Dem 191. (May 2008 - C 1355, Lab 1255, Ukip 879.). Lab hold. Swing 2.2% C to Lab.
Shrewsbury and Atcham Borough - Pimhill: C 341, Lib Dem 331, BNP 59, Ind 16. (May 2007 - C 564, Lab 136). C hold.
261
I saw that but i lert it pass. wage slave will be doing it next.
Personally i preffered Kerry to Bush in 2004 - Although that speech about ‘reporting for duty’ was a bit cheesy!
252. Thanks Nick. I did wonder yesterday about the bad mother argument. But it’s very sexist and after all there are two parents here. Plus a four month old child isn’t going to have an issue with travelling every day or shared child care. Many working mothers use nurseries to help with child care from around this age.
241-then why the”attack dogs” on Palin already .Suggests to me she represents a real threat as much as for being an unknown quantity as being a woman which the Democrats do not benefit from but had the opportunity previously.
When are today’s US polls due which should show results of polling done yesterday?
Not a totally up to date graph but this gives a very good comparison of polling averages in the last few elections.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay.png
Gore started recovering about now, Kerry dipped down about now. There appears to be no regular pattern.
260. Indeed. Polls are froth at the moment. Both candidates will get their respective convention bounces and my guess is that in 10 days or so we’ll see Obama leading again by only 1 to 2 points. That’s the stage we’re at. We then get to the campaign trail and the debates and that’s when the polls will start to budge meaningfully one way or another if they’re ever going to.
The 2004 campaign was remarkably static; largely because it was pretty uneventful. People had made their minds up re Kerry and Bush fairly quickly. I don’t think people are as clear cut this time.
261. The ‘bad mother’ comment is merely my reposting of an email to Andrew Sullivan from a voter.
Not been funny but on your posting rules related to betting - how does this meet your criteria. It is like me e-mailing MTH, NP or Mike Smithson and saying ‘Brown/Clegg is a cnut’ - should they then post it to balance the betting?
270. Not that i would have to post ‘Brown/Clegg is a cnut’ to them as they know i already think that!
262 - A worryingly high BNP vote there in Rotherham.
249. I agree about the election being close, and the conservatism of the USA as a cause. I’m not at all sure that Obama’s campaign is appealing to the centre enough to win at the end.
To that end, I don’t think the ‘4 more years of Bush’ attack is a good one. Centrist voters know very well McCain isn’t a Bush clone, they know he is controversial within the Republican party. It appeals to people who are convinced that Republicans are all at heart ‘a bad thing’, but those people are in the bag for Obama already.
They are presumably expecting the unpopularity of Bush now to make their message carry beyond their base. However, Bush won two elections. Obama needs to appeal to people who voted for Bush twice to win. Think of the Brown bounce in the polls. Blair was deeply unpopular when he went, as was his party, but Labour got a boost because they believed Brown represented the good in the party that Blair didn’t deliver.
261. You have completely failed to answer my point. I assume you understand it but simply can’t admit any fault in yourself, even the tiniest one. In which case, debating with you will be eternally pointless.
270 - With the best will in the world Martin I don’t think your Clegg/Kinnock/Brown comments are unknown to people.
That some women may well look askance at Palin for this is useful imformation. I don’t know if it will be prevalent but she is an unknown overall and we will be finding out a lot about her and people’s views of here in the next two months.
273 - Surely you can’t have missed the far more numerous posts aimed at Obama in a similar way, mine are just a drop in the ocean in comparison.
267: Looks like it’s already in Rasmussen. They’re saying:
“Palin’s selection may have already provided a short-term boost for McCain by muting any further convention bounce following Obama’s successful acceptance speech on Thursday night. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Saturday shows little change from the numbers released on Friday morning.”
http://tinyurl.com/6f6ulx
254- I’m glad YOU believe this to be wide open but some idiots on this site seem to think Obama is a shoo-in.
276 - The short term boost is inevitable (and yes I did mention it yesterday!), the question is what happens when people get to know her. Biden, whatever people might think of him, is a known, he isn’t going to have views on him change markedly. When people get to see Palin what they will see?
Quoting selectively (as *everyone* does)
, this will become more and more important -
“Just 29% of voters say Palin is ready to be president if necessary, ten points below the 39% who said the same a week ago about Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a 36-year member of the Senate. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters say she is ready along with 32% of unaffiliated voters and 11% of Democrats. “
Mike in his thread intro: “It’s going to be an interesting autumn and I’ve not given up altogether on the 6/1 and 5/1 bets I made earlier in the year that Gord would not survive 2008.”
Well, if it’s any consolation, Paddy Power continue to offer Brown at odds-on his leaving office this year. However, as PtP has pointed out, this probably has more to do with PP attempting to straighten their book than a true reflection of the likely course of events.
279. What makes Brown’s position so hard to predict is the absolute mess the Labour party is currently in. It’s a train wreck already!
278. It’s up in the air as to what they’re going to see; but underestimate Palin at your peril, much as some people are underestimating McCain. She has to have done something right to go from a small town mayor to Governor of Alaska, fighting off the GOP establishment *and* enjoying opinion ratings that would make a Soviet leader jealous.
The ‘readiness to lead’ is her weakest card and one the McCain camp are really going to have to focus on. I think most people would acknowledge that.
281-Yet again a spot-on post.You are a sage.
273. I think people *want* to vote for Obama, but he hasn’t yet sealed the deal with some voters. (I appreciate that this is what people say about Cameron, but that’s a very different case in a very different set of circumstances).
What McCain needs to do is have pencils wavering in the polling booths. He needs to exploit that uncertainty and demonstrate he’d be the more effective executive leader - not the most showy, not the most flashy, not the most eloquant and not the most radical or new - but the most effective.
The USA re-elected Bush with over 50% of the vote in 2004. Even after 8 years of the man, and with McCain at least offering a different emphasis to the Bush administration, I have no doubt in my mind that he is more than capable of winning. Let’s not try to apply European standards to US politics. If we do that, we all get disappointed (read, 2004!)
O/T Less than one hour before today’s kick-offs, footy punters may like to consider bet365’s seemingly genmerous odds of 14-1 against Derby County being relegated from the Championship this season.
Having garnered just one point from their first three games, today they are away to Barnsley, themselves 5-4
favourites for the drop. Lose to them and they really are in the doo-doo.
Those who think it isn’t possible after being in the Premier League should check with any fan of Nott’m Forest or Leeds Utd.
By comparison, Betfair’s corresponding odds are around 6-1.
281 - The most interesting thing as fas I’m concerned is the ‘team’ of the two together. On Sullivan’s blog he digs into the total lack of contact with Palin by McCain. Sullivan’s blog is, by the way, where I picked up the Buchanan/Bad Mother comments, there are worse that I could have posted, suggesting that McCain’s mental capacity is waning for those who got so upset at teh ones that I did pass on.
For reference, as I do with redstate, NRO and the like, it may be useful for Obama haters to look at how a right wing supporter of his differs to them.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
To quote -
“Palin isn’t the issue here. McCain’s judgment is. It’s completely off the wall. Is there something wrong with him? ”
Just to let you know that I could post more inflammatory links here if I wanted to.
Can anyone point to a well known liberal McCain supporter in order to compare (yes, Matthew Partridge, I know, but someone with national/international credentials and not a borderline basketcase like Larry Sinclair)? I’ve got the Dem, GOP and Obamacons covered but not the McCain Democrats in my daily reading.
284 - I’m interested to know what you think are the differences with Cameron (apart from the obvious, party identification).
The comparisons are obvious; changing the present status quo, parties not in power as regards Iraq etc, good speakers etc.
i agree the ‘four more years of bush’ thing about mccain is unlikely to work. during the republican primaries, democrats like Sea Shanty Irish were completely confident that McCain was so persona non grata with the republican top brass that they would see him off with ‘Lee Attwater tactics’. it’d be a bit of a handbrake turn now to claim you’d seen him as a bush continuity candidate all along
286 - should be for 283!
Also, the 2004 polls are interesting, near the election they nearly all pointed to Bush and yet people seemed to be expecting Kerry to be president? Can anyone remember why that was the case? Given that they did so well, on average, last time, is there anything to suggest that they would be out this time?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
Is Darling the Norman Lamont of this downturn? Lamont was fatally wounded by our forced exit from the ERM, despite his boss, Major, being more responsible for our original entry at an uncompetitive rate. Incidentally, not only is Brown in denial about the recession, but Major was even more unrealistic about the ERM speculating that sterling might take over from the DM as the sheet anchor of the currency union…. I know, it seems laughable in hindsight.
Darling comes across as bumbling, an innocent in a world he does not understand. He finds out about the credit crunch from the pages of the FT. He doesn’t seem to appreciate that his tax policies worsen the rise in fuel prices. His does not inspire confidence.
Just as Lamont was replaced by Ken Clark after a long period of hints that he could do the job better, is Balls setting himself up to become the next Chancellor?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
288 - If I remember rightly, the argument was that although he was behind in the national polls he was well placed in state polls and his supporters were meant to be more enthusiastic. Ho hum!
286. Most importantly, ukpaul, it’s that the political systems and culture are different:
- Voters have had three years to get to know Cameron, and see him grow into the Leader of the Opposition role. Americans will only have had a few months to get to know Obama. Cameron has been able to solidify his lead, but it’s (in my view) taken years of hard work and a little bit of luck.
- Cameron is not as much of a ‘new hope’ as Obama. He invites similarities to Blair. Obama is a completely new kind of candidate to the US. As such, there is an untested quality there.
- The USA is a deeply polarised country - 50/50, split down the middle, and if any party holds a numerical advantage, it’s probably the GOP. Yes, Bush has been an unsuccessful President, but *because* the US is so polarised, I’m not sure that alone will cause people who voted for him in 2000 and 2004 to suddenly come flocking over to the Democrats. I think, with McCain on the ticket, they’re likely to still cautiously vote GOP. I don’t think the UK has this same level of tribal loyalty (it’s there, but less significant, I’d argue).
- Brown is the same old, same old when it comes to NuLab. McCain has the advantage of being regarded as an independent maverick.
- We’ve had 11 years of total Labour control in the UK (well, England anyway). In the US, the GOP have controlled the executive for the past 8 years, but there’s the added complication of Congress, which has switched and isn’t exactly popular under the Democrats. That adds a level of confusion to the picture. Cameron does not have to deal with, say, a Labour government in Downing Street and a Tory Commons, due to our political system. As such, he is ‘blameless’ in opposition.
In the end, when you compare the US and UK, it’s like comparing apples and oranges. There are hints of similarities, but there are vast differences in political culture. As I say, this is the country that re-elected Bush in 2004.
As always, just my opinion.
Interesting demiographics overview from Rasmussen - I’d have expected men to like McCain more than women, but had no idea the gap was that huge:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/demographic_notes_2008_presidential_race
ukpaul, wasn’t criticising you when I laid into the ‘bad mother’ stuff - you didn’t express an opinion, just reported it.
293, can’t remember who said it, but a while ago I heard a pollster chap say that the only really significant male-female difference in policy preference was about war, which women dislike more than men. McCain seems far more of a war than peace candidate, which might explain it.
By the way, how do people think this will affect Glenrothes, if at all?
288. Wishful thinking from some, combined with the fact the Bush lead was nearly always within the margin of error and that it was felt the Dems were much more energised than the GOP to GOTV.
@293:
Ignore him, Nick, he’s just being another touchy Obama-botherer.
There seems to be a lot of it about. They’re worried about something, it seems.
292 - Yes, UK political identification does seem to be less monolithic, I don’t get the ‘two countries’ feel of much of the USA (and neatly shown earlier today on here).
I’m not sure that Obama is new, so much as not usual, with JFK they have someone similar to Cameron as well in some ways.
GOP party ID is now well below that of the Democrats, whether they are ’shy Republicans’ or not is the question but I’m not at all sure that they have a majority.
As regards the houses, doesn’t the president have a veto over them with a less than 2/3 Democrat presence? If so, the lack of anything done is probably as big as factor as that of political identification.
@295:
But aren’t ‘they’ saying the exact same things about Obama?
292. I’d also like to add, that this GOP v Democratic tribalism, 50/50 split, whatever you want to call it, is a fairly new phenomenon that developed in the dying days of the Clinton administration and was cemented in the 2000 election. Before then I think much more of the country was ‘in play’ for a candidate. Nowadays, the idea of the GOP winning New York (as Reagan did) or the Democrats winning Tennessee or another Southern state, seems fairly ludicrous. The USA is crying out for a candidate who breaks that deadlock.
I once thought Obama could do it, but I’m now sure that he won’t.
297 - Just to clarify, it is my view that the low GOP party ID figures are caused in part by ’shy republicans’ but that the ‘monolithic’ 50/50 still exists but with GOP support at around 50% and not a clear majority.
295 - The moral for betters is clearly to trust the US poll averages (yes, I know Mike doesn’t like averaging but if it works…)
299 - Indeed, although I think the attempt to paint Obama as ‘other’ was to perpetuate that 50/50 split. In doing so they may have made him, as candidate, less able to break that deadlock but maybe not as president. Time will tell.
Also, the great south shift from Dem to GOP shows that nothing is forever.
298. Slightly different circumstances. Obama is ahead in the polls (just) at this stage and certainly appears to generate more entheusiasm than Kerry ever did (how this translates into success at the ballot box in November remains to be seen).
There’s still an element of wishful thinking from some commentators, I feel, that the November election is merely a formality and Obama is incredibly likely to win. I doubt that’s the case. Whilst he is probably the favourite, I imagine we’re going to get into the campaign proper with the polls effectively tied, and then there’s things like the debates, etc…
293 - No worries Nick; it is, however, interesting to find that, in linking to the mirror image of the Obama birth certificate/muslim/terrorist lover posts of the past months then, suddenly, the people who thought these were so important to pass on, find that the mirror image of them are the work of the devil incarnate.
If nothing else, it’s useful to let people see that.
I like Sullivan, he is a sort of ultra-liberal centrist at the moment and, like myself, he can see the need for some form of state without creating the inhumane wild west of pure libertarianism. He also clearly gets under the skin of his erstwhile compatriots on the right!
Has Palin named her daughters after Buffy characters?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/08/30/us/30palin_CA3.ready.html
I believe Piper was named after the oil rig in the North Sea, and Willow after the late 80s fantasy film. Bristol is an obvious nod to Sid James.
302 Matt - the inference from the last sentence of your post is that you expect McCain to win the debates over Obama. If there’s one thing about this election of which I feel confident, it is that the reverse will be the case.
301. Indeed, ukpaul; the deadlock won’t last forever but neither party has found a candidate this time around capable of breaking it.
In my view, there’s going to have to be some general ideological shift at some point as well. The GOP may have attempted to start this with selecting McCain but, as Palin shows, the morally-obsessed right-wing are still very prominent (though it is testimony to the pick, I think, that Palin, who is far from a zealot on moral matters as opposed to many in that section of the GOP, has managed to placate this group without conforming entirely to their views).
In the 1980s, it was big business and right-wing economics that dominated the GOP ideology. Under Bush, that’s shifted to neoconservatives and evangelicals. Parties do change, and I suspect that whoever wins the next election, at least one of the parties is going to change its ideological emphasis significantly over the next 4-8 years, which may lead us to the candidate required to break the ‘deadlock.’
@302:
Obama’s people were surely hoping to have it sewn up before the debates. Unfortunately for Our Barry, he’s astonishingly bad at mano a mano debating, where his heady but vacuous rhetoric falls embarrassingly flat.
I look forward too seeing quite how they’re planning to deal with Obama’s misplaced smug superiority complex that comes through in his debates.
302 - Kerry was a plank of wood in terms of presentation. As Brown has found out, you ignore that at your peril because, if things slide, you need it to ameliorate the situation. Blair knew that, Bush knew that.
People may not like it but presentation matters.
At the moment I would say that Obama is 2 to 3 percent ahead, enough to be confident about giving betting advice but no more. I would like to see the evidence of those who have posted in the last few days that a McCain win is inevitable though, as I can’t see that in current polling (when people do that, my instant reaction is to post something to stop people risking their money unnecessarily, they may believe it but it is dishonest to sway people like that).
@305:
Unlikely, PfP, based on Obama’s past performance. Obama was pwned by pretty much everybody in head-to-head debates during the primary season.
304 - The one that intrigues me is Track, named after where he was conceived! Is there a town named track or was it actually on *a* track?
BTW Martin, if you stop posting that McCain is going to win, I will stop countering with the opposite!
305. Actually, I’m being fence-sittingly boring and I’m unsure who will win the debates. I find them very difficult to predict and what happens in one can change the whole campaign (Reagan’s age joke, Ford’s gaffe about the Soviet influence in Eastern Europe).
I think McCain and Obama are fairly evenly matched. One thing Obama has going for him is that next to McCain he’s going to look a lot more like ‘the future.’ But McCain has a good head on him and I’m sure he’ll try to trip Obama up. Obama could potentially land more knock-out blows, but is also the most gaffe-prone, I’d argue.
@308:
It’s a mixture of polling trends, history, an analysis of the American psyche and the belief that Americans aren’t morons.
McCain’s victory isn’t ‘inevitable’, but I do think it likely.
263.
“wage slave will be doing it next.”
What are you ON MTF? There was a spotty youth who acted like you years ago when I was doing some work in Conservative Central Office. Theylet him make the tea which I thought at the time was a very dangerous thing to do.
306 - “In the 1980s, it was big business and right-wing economics that dominated the GOP ideology. Under Bush, that’s shifted to neoconservatives and evangelicals. ”
I preferred the 80’s version much more; oh, for another Reagan. The latter version? It’s pretty much my opposite.
@310:
Of course you won’t. Why would you say such a thing?
I’m just enjoying poking touchy Obama-botherers. The squeal in such an amusing way at the moment if you do it just right.
311 - Obama needs to keep it relatively simple, giving further detail when pushed, with easy to remember soundbites e.g. tax cut for 95% of people (and this is someone that conservative’s dislike?!?).
McCain needs to stop being so simple, showing that he has thought beyond the basics e.g. that he realises that drilling isn’t a short term help.
Obama tries to be too complex, McCain tries to be too simple, whichever one can change that will do well.
@314:
The nature of American politics is to force everybody into these two fractured coalitions masquerading as political parties.
The GOP seems more fractured at the moment, but that’s a side effect of having just fostered one of the least successful presidencies the US has ever known.
315.
We are not interested in who Martin pokes, whether he does it right or how/why they squeal!
315 - Well - you, weathercock, thomas, david lawrence, stars and stripes, test etc. etc.
Okay, it’s not going to happen.
317 - On something I’m sure with which we’d both agree, neither of them are as fractured as the empty shell of the labour party now is.
@319:
I’m sure it’ll have stopped by Mid-November.
We can all start arguing about Clinton vs Palin 2012 instead.
Paul M — Very, very interesting post.
Many thanks.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/30/is-darling-trying-to-spike-gords-latest-re-launch/#comment-758169
319 - Forgot to add Ave It 08, how could I forget?
@320:
Well, the Dems and the GOP are held together by a desire to win. I’m not sure Labour even has that any more.
100.”88. My guess-and certainly among the people I know-Bush is a far scarier fruitcake than Putin.”
Roger, while not having the time or inclination to list the mistakes of the Bush administration’s Foreign policy, some on the Left believe that fantasy at their peril. Putin is far more clever, and has a hell of a lot more power without the checks and balances of the American system, and that makes him more dangerous than Bush…
168 “I’ve no opinion about illegal immigration in Bangladesh.”
But surely, if Labour’s opinion is that immigration, legal and otherwise, boosts the British economy, the same must be true for poor countries like Bangladesh.
Perhaps Labour’s open door immigration policy could be applied to all 3rd world countries. It could solve world poverty!
Just think poor people could make other poor countries rich, just by the power of immigration.
New thread - How big a gamble is Sarah Palin?
156.”However, he’s a completely unsuitable person to be Chancellor. Learning about an economic crisis from the newspapers in Majorca?!!! WTF? And what on earth is going on at The Treasury that he wasn’t briefed by them?”
Exactly!
@ 152 - I agree re Blair and 9/11.
I remember listening to his speach and thinking how he said all the right things.
Mind you … I also remember him saying “your just going to have to trust me on this” on WMD in Iraq