How should Brown respond to this?
September 4th, 2008
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Is is time for a McCain-style gamble?
Charles Clarke, the former Home Secretary, has launched another not-so-subtle attack on Gordon Brown, claiming in the New Statesman that Labour “is destined to disaster if we go on as we are” and that “we will not allow that to happen”.
In spite of some fairly significant pressing concerns about the Party and the Government, fully a quarter of the article is given over to complaints that the term ‘Blairite’ is being used as a slur - to demonise those who disagree with the Prime Minister, by tying them to an imagined agenda of social policy out-of-step with the Labour Party. Clarke concludes his article with two telling sentences: “There is no Blairite ideology” and “similarly, there is no Blairite plot”.
It is difficult to know how Brown should respond to this. It is not the first time that the former Home Secretary has issued a rather insipid challenge, and in the absence of any serious threat amidst the rumblings, I am not sure that dignifying Clarke with a direct response would be wise. And yet he needs to do something - to simply allow this sort of talk the license to snipe away at his Premiership diminishes him as the leader of his party.
So what response? Much has been made of the re-shuffle that never was, and might now never be. Miliband and Purnell apparently said they would resign rather than move, other Labour stalwarts have threatened revolt if former-Tory Sean Woodward replaced Des Browne at Defence. Now Alistair Darling is giving two-day interviews to the previously-Brownite Guardian, to justify his position in public. The received wisdom is that, with a by-election pending, the PM is simply too weak politically to reshuffle his Cabinet.
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Across the Atlantic, there have been plaudits for John McCain’s choice of Vice Presidential running-mate - a selection so bold, that even some serious concerns could not override the game-changing nature of his decision. Even where people questioned the prudence of picking Sarah Palin, no-one could deny it was gutsy. I wonder if things are now so stagnant for Brown, that he needs to do something similarly drastic.
What would be as monumental for Brown as picking Palin? I think he needs to ‘throw an elbow’ and to do it on live television. To put one of the Big Beasts of his Cabinet to the sword would remind the Party of the ruthessness he showed in attaining the Premiership, albeit that has been absent in occupying Number 10. It would give him some momentum, and perhaps quell the less-than-committed attempts to oust him.
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If Charles Clarke is right, and there is no alternative Blairite social agenda, and no Blairite plot, what does Brown have to lose by moving against David Milband in a reshuffle?
Of course, there is a chance that Miliband might immediately raise an army of 70-odd backbenchers’ signatures against the PM, but I’m not sure that he has that sort of grassroots support within the PLP. If shortly after Conference, having been forced to swear loyalty to the PM in a prime time address, would a complete volte-face be politically possible for the Foreign Secretary? It would look like bitterness if he had been sacked from the Cabinet - and if it were the result of being offered a promotion (to Chancellor) over which he chose to resign, he would perhaps look somewhat petty. After his Guardian article, I am less convinced than ever that David Miliband is prepared to move openly against Brown.
The fact is that Charles Clarke is symptomatic of the attacks that the PM receives from his own side - no alternative, of policy or of leader, is ever publically suggested. Nigel Griffiths said today that “In 2007, he [Clarke] and Alan Milburn set up a think tank called 2020 Vision. It didn’t think, but it certainly tanked”. I wonder if ‘Blairite’ opposition to Brown has been, as I think Charles Clarke admits, completely mischaracterised and overstated, and whether moving to crush them publically might just be the filip that Brown’s premiership needs.
But would he dare?
Morus
MessageSpace Advertising
Today’s Rasmussen:
Obama leads 50-45 (same as yesterday)
Without leaners, it’s 47-43 (was 48-43)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
He simply doesn’t have the guts to act.
He will carry on taking ‘the right decisions’ for the ‘long term’.
He cannot see past his blinkers. He never has and he never will.
Counterfactual question: If Thatcher had fired Howe, rather than Howe resigning, would it have changed the outturn? Howe would not have had the automatic opportunity of a resignation speech to attack her and she would have been seen as decisive and tough. Would it have saved her?
Jack, from last thread; looking at the Rasmussen tracker figures there are two days falling off the tracker tomorrow and the day after which looked very strong for Obama, given that these are also at the height of the GOP conference it looks likely to create an enhanced switch somewhat and this will no doubt fuel the media narrative. People trading on this might also want to take advantage of that.
To answer my own question at 3: Yes, it would have changed the sequence of events, but it would not have changed the outcome.
Similarly, Brown could change the short-term weather by sacking Miliband or Darling, but it won’t change the fact that Hurricane Election is heading his way and his levees are broken.
Clarke is right. Brown has to step up to the plate, change everything, display courage, vision and fresh policy; or he has to go. Ergo, he has to go.
Problem is, there is no mechanism. Ergo, he only has to go in 21 months time. Ergo, UK up Brown creek with paddle broken.
3 - Good question. If they’re are thinking of jumping, why not push them and show everyone that they shouldn’t stand so close to the edge.
2. He doesn’t have the guts to face an election, but moving against his internal enemies used to be the reason that Brown was feared in the party. If he can’t even reshuffle his cabinet, it is as good as over, isn’t it? So why not go down in style?
The interesting thing is that the game is well and truly up when your best soundbites are against your own side. Everyone remembers the ‘in office but not in power’ quip from Lamont, a very good soundbite against his own. The Griffiths quote is rather a good soundbite too but the problem is the same, that Labour has turned in on itself and the quote is directed at a fellow Labourite. All this leaves Cameron free to travel the country and the world as the coming man.
Can I just clarify: the question isn’t “Will sacking Miliband save Brown?” because I don’t think it will.
The question is “what does Brown have to lose by moving against Miliband?”
I’d love to know how people think Miliband would respond if Brown just told him - “I’m moving you to the Treasury - accept or resign”
Charles Clarke is an odious man, one of my least favourite ever politicians.
And yet he is right, if Brown stays Labour are heading for disaster. They may well be headed for disaster anyway, but it is beyond me how the labour party are tolerating their current predicament with such equanimity (on the surface at least) Could be a very interesting party conference. Any PBers going?
8 - I think he would accept to be honest.
8 ‘The question is “what does Brown have to lose by moving against Miliband?’
Probably not much. But I don’t see that he’s got much to gain either. It wouldn’t stop people like Charles Clarke pointing out (quite rightly) that things aren’t going too well for Labour. At least at the moment Miliband seems to be keeping quiet.
I don’t have any particular desire to see the Tories in charge again, but the present situation does make me ponder whether there should be some sort of constitutional mechanism by which such a rudderless government could be ousted and an immediate general election called.
It doesn’t strike me as doing the governance of the country any good to have the sort of drift that characterises the present period, and was evident in 1995-97.
In previous years, before the party system became so entrenched, a government in such dire straights as this would surely have fallen some time ago. Now that the individual members are so reliant on their party affiliation for their membership of the House, the system no longer works.
Any ideas?
8. If he failed to accept the challenge he would surely suffer the political fallout in a future leadership contest. Labour won’t want a fairweather leader. It might be a very smart move of Brown’s to offer him it.
4 ukpaul. Perhaps. However most of yesterdays tracker did not include the Palin speech. Nevertheless I’m now factoring in a McCain house bias in the Rasmussen figures of one percentage point following their adjustment of party ID.
Prior to the conventions I felt a smallish bounce, 3/4%, was likely for both candidates and as you were was likely next week - ie tied. Now I feel Obama might come out with a small but useful lead running into the first debate.
8
The various questions can be summarised as: “will relaunch number 23 be any better than 1 to 22″
and “what will be the difference”
Gorodn whilst PM cannot change policies. To do so will be an admission of failure .. and worse still an admission that he , Gordon, was WRONG.
Gordon is never wrong.
So it is more of the same.. tracor production, getting on with the job etc.
He has no choice as his mindset will not allow it.
When you are convinced you are doing the right thing, anything else is wrong.
As for the PLP? They voted for him. they are stuck with him.
Appoint in haste repent at leisure.
15 - They didn’t vote for him that’s one of the problems!
I’ve been struggling to rise to the challenge of thinking what Brown could do that would be (as Morus suggests in his article) “so bold, that even some serious concerns could not override the game-changing nature of his decision.” I don’t think a reshuffle or moving Miliband around would meet that challenge. He needs to do something more dramatic.
Defect to the SNP maybe?
Now this is my kind of trade union advert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0
12. Up to a point - when party structures were looser, a lot of governments collapsed well before their terms were up. But that was also due to a convention - since abandoned - that governments were obliged to resign if defeated in the House of Commons on any substantive measure. That convention made governments vulnerable to ‘guerilla attacks’ on what today appear rather footling measures such as sugar import bills etc.
Today you would need something like a recall system but somehow I don’t see that being introduced…
17 - Calling an election would be pretty game-changing, I think. Which direction it changed the game in is anybody’s guess but it would alter all the current assumptions.
Paddy Power - Will Gordon win his seat?
“Singles Only. Applies to Gordon Brown winning the constituency of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath in the next UK General Election. Bets void should he not stand in the next general election for that constituency.”
Yes 1/100
No 20/1
http://www.paddypower.com
21 - I was asking about this on the last thread. What do you think, Stuart?
“Sinn Féin and the DUP have described two hours of talks aimed at breaking the political deadlock as “useful”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7597160.stm
22. Richard Nabavi
Are you thinking of investing some of the old beer tokens?
9. The most interesting thing about Charles Clarke’s flicking-of-Gordon-Brown’s-ears-and-then-running-away is that fatty Clarke himself admits that: there is no great “ideological” split between the Blairites and the Brownites and the Ballsies etc.
This is significant, he’s right. There is no great ideological debate within, or emanating from, the Labour party. AND THAT IS THE CRUX..
All the various leaders who might replace Brown simply offer more of the same: hapless boring authoritarian centrist sort-of-europhile tax-and-spend social democratic multiculti PC tweaking of the Thatcherite economic consensus.
Miliband or Straw, Balls or Burnham, they all believe the same tedious guff. And this guff is what has been rejected, quite fiercely, by the electorate.
People are bored of being lectured. They are bored at being regulated. They wanna pay LESS tax. They don’t like the EU. They think public spending has been wasted. They dislike multiculturalism. They dislike mass immigration. They loathe political correctness. They don’t want to be fined for overfilling their bins.
So it’s the entire New Labour project that has been rejected, which is why Labour are screwed, because none of them has the guts to admit this central problem - and fair enough, cause it would mean admitting the total failure of everything that they stand for.
Moreover, the only vaguely radical new ideas within Labour are telling the party to tax even more, integrate further into Europe, waste more public money - all policies diametrically opposed to the wishes of the voters.
There. That’s the key to it all. Sure Labour have a vastly unpopular leader, but they ALSO have vastly unpopular policies. Therefore dumping Brown is pointless, as it would only serve to reveal their deep underlying unpopularity as a party and a movement. Right now, Brown is actually a good psychological crutch for many of them - they can all blame poor Gordo, and pretend he’s the sole problem. But they’re in denial.
It ain’t just Brown. It’s Labour. They’re finished.
O/T - Not sure this is a good thing to be contemplating on behalf of the putative Obama presidency.
http://tinyurl.com/5kpd9m
“Of course, there is a chance that Miliband might immediately raise an army of 70-odd backbenchers’ signatures against the PM, but I’m not sure that he has that sort of grassroots support within the PLP.”
The deadline for a leadership challenge this year expires at midnight tonight…
20. Great idea. Call a snap autumn election to coincide with the Tory Conference and say “See, I was planning one all along, you just got the year wrong, losers!”
21…20/1 is a stonking price!
The look on Ed Balls yesterday, when asked if he was the next C of E: Smug git! An equally dramatic move by Brown to that of Palin would be the appointment of two deputy PM’s - Mr Miliband & Margret Beckitt. They would not both have to have the term deputy PM of course: one could be first Secretary of state. Mili could stay at the Foriegn office but be well and truelly put under the thumb. Beckitt would be a Prescott type figure in appealing to the Old Labour vote as ironically that seems to have been left to wither of late.
Brown won’t do it though as he would rather play silly sods with his crayons, felt-tip pens and paper.
Very, very good:
SeanT:
People are bored of being lectured. They are bored at being regulated. They wanna pay LESS tax. They don’t like the EU. They think public spending has been wasted. They dislike multiculturalism. They dislike mass immigration. They loathe political correctness. They don’t want to be fined for overfilling their bins.
I suspect much of it will be America’s loath in 4 years IF Obama is elected…
19 Maybe something like the individual recall of MPs. You could have it set up so that you had a set timescale (1 month for eg) to collect as many registered voters in the constituency as originally voted for the MP to force a by election. After 5-10 of those the government would get the message and just call and election you’d hope. If not they’ll eventually lose their mjority in the HoC.
31. Obama being elected 50/50 at best!
Race will be a real driver for those who make it into the polling booth. Alas it will not be a positive driver in most cases.
20
Brown to hang on until after the Euro elections next year,the results will give him no choice but to go,Jack the man of straw to take over as caretaker leader for the final few months.
27 - I was thinking of your view about the Labour Party impediments when I wrote that sentence, Rod. I just don’t see how Miliband challenges Brown - he has no means of doing so.
O/T - I’m rewatching the Palin speech. It is phenomenal - one of the best I’ve seen at a Convention.
Excellent article Morus, you make some interesting points and I agree that Miliband and the Blairite factions within the party may have been misjudged. You get the feeling that there has been no gathering of their banner behind one group or challenger either.
“What would be as monumental for Brown as picking Palin? I think he needs to ‘throw an elbow’ and to do it on live television. To put one of the Big Beasts of his Cabinet to the sword would remind the Party of the ruthessness he showed in attaining the Premiership”
The problem with that suggestion is that Brown would need some real courage to do something, which in effect resembles Major’s stand against the plotters within the Conservative party. Brown was extremely ruthless in his quest to get where he did, but he never had the guts to through the gauntlet down openly, instead he has preferred to brief and plot behind an anonymous sources and closed doors.
Brown’s position reminds me more IDS rather than Major despite the fact that Major was PM and IDS was leader of the opposition. Brown’s authority is totally shot when you have two government PPS’s on newsnight debating opposing views on a tax on the energy companies. Its not the Blairites, but rather those on the left who seem to be cause Brown the most damage, there is a certain irony in that.
29 How many of his constituents do we need to sign up?!
A few BoJo stories:
GQ Politician of the Year
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/boris-johnson-bags-politician-of-the-year-title-at-gq-awards_10091985.html
Boris: “It hardly rains in London”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/03/boris-johnson-claims-is-hardly-rains-in-london-115875-20722002/
Above inflation Tube/bus fare rises, blamed (quite clumsily IMHO) on Ken’s electioneering:
http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/Boris-announces-above-inflation-fare-increase-article_id-1781.html
Cutting transport plans he deems wasteful
http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/3476
34. If Brown is to go next summer after the Euro elections, why don’t Labour just have a GE and then get rid of him? Straw would have the same problem as Brown - Caretaker leader for full term??? (Hypothetical questions!
).
36. If Brown wanted to shut Clarke up - Why not just withdraw the whip?
35 Morus. You very sad man !!
32. Interesting idea - nominations for the first MP to be recalled?
37. SNP canvassers are probably signing up Gordon’s constituents as we speak!
Or at least they will be as soon as they have finished knocking doors in neighbouring Glenrothes.
What a weird place Gordon’s head-space must be to inhabit. He has spent a lifetime crawling through the Amazon jungle in pursuit of El Dorado. And against all odds, he found it! By God, he found it!
But before he could show its gleaming magnificence to anybody else, an army of ghosts and trolls and goblins and dwarves has moved in - and started dismantling every single sign of it, ingot by ingot. He is a man watching his life’s work being taken apart in slow motion. All to a soundtrack of his silent screams.
Whatever stunt, and in this context a reshuffle would be a stunt, Brown tries, it will most likely backfire. He and his advisers have shown themselves to be cackhanded when they have to perform in public, rather than in the behind the scenes plotting they apparently excelled in under Blair. As PM he seems to have no idea about presentation, which, as Steve Richards pointed out in his Indcependent piece today, he seemed to be quite good at while at the Treasury.
I still believe that a reshuffle would play badly, since there is no real reason for it, and no minister, Darling included, is under such pressure or damaged so badly that it needs to happen, so it would be purely for political puposes. I also still believe that some minsters might refuse to be moved (Darling, Miliband, Johnson, Hutton, Purnell apparently) and if they went to the backbenches any of them would be dangerous, Howe-style. Brown may be desperate, or rash, but he cannot calculate the consequences of his actions, and his dithering and cautious nature should win out. Post conference, however, you cannot rule out the delegation of party elders.
The man is clearly deluded
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7597276.stm
35 — “O/T - I’m rewatching the Palin speech. It is phenomenal - one of the best I’ve seen at a Convention.”
I agree. I hope it will be effective.
It might, especially as the US media [did] such a grand job this last week of lowering expectations by portraying Governor Palin - whoops, I mean Hick-Burg Mayor Palin - as a hillbilly know-nothing permapregnant ditz, half of whose 27 kids are the spawn of a stump-toothed uncle who hasn’t worked since he was an extra in Deliverance. — M. Steyn
41 - Guilty as charged, m’lud!
45. He still thinks that by denying there’s a problem he’s dealing with it, when in actual fact he just looks stupid. We are in trouble, the government is in massive debt, and all he can say is everything will be fine.
Returning to the idea of seeking a Palin-like shock to the system, I can’t see how a reshuffle will achieve this unless someone completely off the wall in appointed to a hugely signficant position.
The current cabinet is hardly packed with charismatic big hitters. Those who have left the cabinet over the past decade are pretty much tainted.
The only name I can think of is Frank Field - a genuine free-thinking maverick. Put him in No 11 and see what happens.
42 Ed Balls? Quentin Davies just for comedy value? Brown? Any of a hundred or more unpleasant non-entities on the government benches?
46.
Brown is Barking mad! At least he is keeping the Felt Tip Pen, Crayon and mobile phone industry in business. I wonder if he has started on colouring books yet?
Maybe I could do something that will help the penny drop with Brown:
I could do a colour in book of a man in a house, going outside digging a trench, standing in it - filling it with petrol and then doing a party trick: Blowing his head off and igniting the fire!!!!
50 The flurry of mobile phones hitting the dividing wall between No 10 and 11 would render the whole structure unsafe!
I double Frank Field is on Gordon’s Christmaas Card list. Having a free thinker in the cabinet wouldn’t be top of Gordon’s agenda either - they might want to do something on their own, or disrupt the tractor production
1 Tomorrows figures will be the key. The report on Rasmussen (the pollster in the US I trust far more than any other) states almost all interviews were done before last nights speech. If McCain is to get any bounce from this convention, the next two or three days are when we should see it.
If Obama still has a 3-5% lead by the weeknd, he will be in pole position, if it’s all square or McCain is ahead, then it’s advanatage McCain in terms of momentum, and the fact even the reliable pollsters seem to slightly overestimate the Dems position. Ill be also keeping an eye on the next batch of state polls from Nevada, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, If Obama pulls away in any of them, McCain has a problem, if not, then again i’d say it would be advantage McCain. I may be proved wrong, but if these states are in to close to call territory in the last weeks of the election, I suspect McCain will win them.
51. There are a lot of candidates, for sure. Davies would be a good one - it seems especially appropriate that the voters should have the chance to chuck out pond life of his ilk.
46.”Britain is well placed to weather the “first financial crisis of the new global age” thanks to Labour’s handling of the economy, Gordon Brown has said.”
And he says that with a straight face after the news yesterday that we are in the weakest position of the G7?
24 Stuart - Well, it did cross my mind. Losing Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath may seem improbable, but at 20-1… After all, Gordon Brown is even less popular than Labour as a whole, and we’ve already seen the super-safe seat of Glasgow East fall, albeit at a by-election not a GE. Also, consider a scenario where Brown resigns as Leader but stands again as a backbencher - how popular would he then be even amongst diehard Labour supporters? On the other hand, if he remains as Leader, wrecking the party in the process, would be be any more popular? Not to mention tactical voting against him.
O/T - Can’t remember who it was that was claiming that the US was suffering more than most economies and more than the UK, but read this and weep!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7598306.stm
[57] - One problem might be that there are likely to be a dozen or so random chancers standing against the PM. These might well be expected to pick up a couple of percentage points between them.
39
Because the 100 or so Labour MP’s that will lose their seats may still think that a change of leader may save some of them from the dole and secondly they will want to hang onto their salaries and expenses gravy train until the bitter end.
Strawman would try to maintain the Labour core vote (similar to Howard in 05)and minimise the scale of the defeat.
12. how are you defining “rudderless” though? i can think of several times when such a system might have triggered in the last few decades, and now is not one of them.
the government is well behind in the polling, of course, and losing byelections, of course, but it is implementing policies (some of them not very good) and its majority in the commons is pretty robust.
no democracy could function if a snap election could be forced on these criteria.
32. unfortunately this is completely unworkable for many reasons - but for a start, many (most?) MPs are elected with less than 50% of votes - so the recall could be instant
Palin Power
Rasmussen :
–> 51% Say Reporters Are Trying To Hurt Palin;
–> 39% Say She Has Better Experience Than Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/51_say_reporters_are_trying_to_hurt_palin_39_say_she_has_better_experience_than_obama
Go baby, Go!
Clarke could help Labour reconnect with English voters - he could persuade Brown to set up an English Parliament and that really would shot the Tory Fox, but I doubt he will do it.
Anglophobia, anti-Englishness and anti-white racism seem to be a requirement to become a Labour MP these days, so no it wont happen. 68% of English people want an English Parliament and 59% want full independence. This English nationalism is mild at the moment but we are starting to get very angry, particularly when Scotland is about to scrap that dreadful Council Tax in favour of a much fairer system thanks to devolution.
The government’s deliberate anti-English policies are why Labour is heading into the abyss, the economy is not the cause.
54. i believe we will see mccain bounce up x%, and then fall back 1-2% in the following days
Politico: Clinton aides: Palin treatment sexist
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13129.html
46. Given new car sales are at the lowest since 1966 and house prices have fallen at the fatest rate in the last year since the creatioon of the Figures from Halifax.
I think we can safely conclude that Brown must be completly off his head. Seriously though - I don’t think he can handle the pressure: they don’t have loaded guns on display in number 10 do they as I would advise they are removed pretty soon.
65.
Just last spring, Palin herself scoffed when Hillary Clinton’s campaign complained about a double standard in coverage.
“When I hear a statement like that coming from a woman candidate with any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism, or maybe a sharper microscope put on her, I think, ‘Man, that doesn’t do us any good, women in politics, or women in general, trying to progress this country,’ ” Palin said.
quite simply, the republicans just don’t sound credible when crying sexism, and if they overplay that card (which they are doing), it is going to rebound on them. remember, when clinton tried it during the primaries she got shot down by everyone.
63 - francis - I’ve posted on here before that offering a referendum on more powers to the Scottish and Welsh executives (which would be popular in both countries) could be mirrored by a devolution referendum for England after the next election.
I think this would go down well, and would put the Conservatives in a bit of a pickle. Do they stay as unionists and defy populism (I think the idea is popular if not very well thought through by many), or do they commit to it, knowing that they will likely be in government and expected to deliver it?
Do other people agree that an English Parliament would be something of a problem for Cameron?
63, ‘twould be a clever move. Which is why it won’t happen.
66 It won’t be Clarke firing a gun at Brown it will be the electorate. The Scots don’t want him, the Welsh don’t want him and neither do us English. Perhaps he could go to the USA or move to a communist country where he will be happy and enjoy as much socialism as he wants.
I cannot believe Biden has said this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2680908/Barack-Obama-would-consider-criminal-charges-against-Bush-administration-over-Guantanamo-Bay.html
Think this is the first gaffe of the “fall campaign” - It shows the democratic strategy to be counter-productive: 52% of US voters put Bush in the Whitehouse after it was known that Guantamino existed. This will surely fire up the repuplican base up further as in 2004 (They won a majority despite pundatry opinion that Bush would win). Secondly it undermines Obama’s judgement for picking Biden. The last few days has been hailed by the dems as a step forward. Think they have now taken two steps back!
65 - More surprisingly, Joe Biden has made precisely the same point:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/bidens-gloves-c.html
Rasmussen Poll: In a head-to-head match-up, men prefer Sarah Palin over Clinton 49% to 45% according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Women prefer the former first lady over Palin 57% to 35%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/woman_president_clinton_vs_palin_52_to_41
71 - The more I hear about Biden the more I like him. Good man.
68 I used to be a Labour supporter and member and was very surprised devolution stopped. I warned the party to drop the regional assemblies but they did’nt listen, I advised them that they should all of England a national parliament but all I got was Anglophobia from the top - mainly Scottish Labour activists. I left Labour and started tactically voting with the Conservatives and UKIP as they were offering some alternative to a parliament.
The Conservatives can play the English card and still be unionist, an English Parliament may actually strengthen the union but indifference to it will certainly lead to independence soon.
60. Strawman would try to maintain the Labour core vote (similar to Howard in 05)and minimise the scale of the defeat.
Actually it is more difficult than that - the tories new there base was 166 seats in 2001- 2005 parliament and so could target the most marginal seats.
This time where is the Labour base seats line for the next election 100-150 or 150-200 or 200-250? Difficult to say and once a new PM is in place the GE will need to follow very quickly indeed so near to the end of the current Labour mandate: Weeks.
this is interesting:
Viewing numbers for the second night of the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., are out and it’s not particularly good news for the party.
Some 21.5 million people watched the Republican convention Tuesday night, Nielsen reported this afternoon, down slightly from the 22.1 million who watched second night coverage four years ago.
By comparison, almost 26 million people watched the second night of the Democratic convention last week, when Hillary Clinton addressed the crowd.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/03/audience-for-gop-convention-falls-from-2004/
58. they are a lot worse off than us, notwithstanding one or two decent looking indicators recently. expect dow jones meltdown in the autumn
47 — Are you quoting the same Mark Steyn who confidently predicted the Iraqi insurgency would be over by Spring 2004?
77. What’s the margin of error on viewer polls?
DAVID FRUM: Palin’s Working Class Appeal
The Democratic Party runs strongest where formal educational attainment is widest.
…
Shrum derides Palin’s prolife views as extreme and insists that Hillary Clinton’s women voters will reject them. But Hillary Clinton’s women voters – many of them older and less-educated – may discover that they have much more in common with the personal struggles of a Sarah Palin than they do with the personal triumphs of a Barack Obama.
Since 1990, college-educated America has experienced a sexual counter-revolution. The odds of divorce have steeply declined among college-educated women and out-of-wedlock marriage remains uncommon.
To these college-educated women, the life story of the Palin family may seem exotic, even disturbing. In college-educated America, children may get pregnant at 17 — but they do not carry the baby and they do not marry the father. Teen marriage increases the odds of divorce; teen motherhood interferes with education – so educated America frowns on both.
In non-college America, however, it’s still the 1970s. The odds of divorce remain as high as ever, and the rate of out-of-wedlock births among white women has jumped past 25 percent - higher than it was among blacks when Daniel Moynihan diagnosed the crisis of the black family in the 1960s. For many in this group, the Palin story will read like the story of their own families.
With their nomination of Barack Obama, the Democrats have intensified their image as the party of minorities and the upper part of white America. …
By choosing Sarah Palin, Republicans, by contrast, have reasserted their identity as the party of white working-class America - of those who worry about cultural and economic threats to their families.
68. We want a Yorkshire Parliament. I don’t care about London and the south; they can do whatever they want.
78. Ed - Stay off the economics for your own credability:
US has had a booming export economy for the last couple of years due to a weak dollar. The US did not have the public dabt as a proprtion of GDP either. The US has also stimulated demand through big tax cuts and slashing interest rates.
The UK is in a very bad position - Don’t beleive Brown he is talking Bollocks! Who do you believe Brown or the OECD, B of E governor, most independent economists?
82, I’d only vote for a Yorkshire Parliament if we had an independent defence policy. Watch out, Lancashire!
77. Not much in it when Bill and HRC are on the box compared to an unknown from Alaskia don’t you think?
81 - Philippe I assume you just copy and pasted that article in from somewhere? In which case the following phrase is proof that the sub-editor needs to be fired - “The odds of divorce have steeply declined among college-educated women and out-of-wedlock marriage remains uncommon.”
58. It was “ed”.
sporting index commons spreads have shifted today; Tories up four seats, labour down the same. Not a massive move but the biggest for a while
Yes, sorry, I forgot the link :
http://www.theweekdaily.com/article/index/40052/3/3/DAVID_FRUM_Palins_Working_Class_Appeal
–
No, the phrase is correct and coherent in the context.
81. By choosing Sarah Palin, Republicans, by contrast, have reasserted their identity as the party of white working-class America - of those who worry about cultural and economic threats to their families.
but palin has nothing to say on the economy?
87 - Yeah I thought it would smoke the person in question out.
82. T’Parliament has a nice ring to it.
87. It always is Ed!
BBC reporting that a Soldier is refused room at hotel
And Martin Bright has Five stark truths in The New Statesman.
85 - Mind you, one is aiming to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency and the other isn’t. Palin has also had pretty blanket coverage lately and there was apparently a lot of excitement over what she would say.
I don’t think much can be read into it but quite interesting nonetheless.
90. Ironically neither has Obama when contrasted to HRC!
Mind you if the rejuvination in US growth is felt in peoples pockets on the ground, then no wonder Obaam does not make much mention of it.
89 - Wedlock and marriage are synonyms, I even consulted my copy of Roget’s Thesaurus to check. You are either in wedlock or you are not. You are either in a marriage or you are not, and as the two words mean the same thing you cannot possibly by means of any known logic have an out-of-wedlock marriage.
81-LOVE IT-this ain’t over by a long chalk.
97 — You may be right, I would not know. I thought it meant something like re-marriage.
95. That’s crap even from you - So a former two times president and his wife who was in this race is an irrelevance? Didn’t biden speak as well.
If anything it shows that this race is wide open and rather than looking at the figures you present through a Democratic Halo: I would look at it with concern from your point of view.
English Independence now http://www.freeengland.com
Once again, it’s been very telling how few senior Cabinet ministers have come forward in support of Brown over the past 24 hours, following the pretty undisguised attacks on him by Charles Clarke.
By my reckoning that would be…er…um…none, apart from Balls of course, who is probably acting more out of self-preservation than anything else.
94. It seems the Bishop of Rochester may have had a point.
94 - If anyone is in Woking please piss on that hotel for me. This sort of thing makes me apoplectic. Where the f*** are the “Equality and Human Rights Commission” now?? If a hotel in the US treated one of their soldiers like that, it would be burned down before you could say lynch mob. We should do the same.
83. actually i follow the economic releases pretty closely, that is the sphere where i do most of my ‘betting’. i don’t listen to any individual opinion, although i do read a lot of opinion pieces.
my money is where my mouth is, unlike you i suspect.
54 - That’s not quite how bounces usually work, the high point will be the beginning of next week and then what happens in the week after is key. The highpoint of a bounce is not the time to make a snapshot unless you control the election date (Brown’s cockup on this matter being the most glaring mistake as regards this).
62, 65 etc. - You see, you get posts like this and it gives an inaccurate position for those betting, that’s why they are gainsaid, to stop people getting a one sided impression.
On that subject, James Fallows’ take on the speech is much more down to earth, and to my mind, perceptive in looking at any strategy at play here.
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/sarah_palin.php
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/a_word_more_on_palin_and_the_r.php#more
73 - Well, even the liberal bias of women aside that’s a pretty big slap in the face to the idea that she was picked for women, the unfortunate (or fortunate) thing is that a female seen as being a ‘for the guys’ candidate can start to do exactly the opposite of what you might expect in terms of losing, not gaining, women’s support.
If there are a number of make commentators waxing lyrical over her and fewer women relatively then this adds to the problem. My workplace is 95% female by the way, you get used to seeing how these things go down…..
97 - He must have meant out-of-wedlock births or something - but you are right, that’s lazy writing and lazier ’subbing’.
(note for pedants and Giles Coren: ’sub-editing’ is not a verb. The prefix ’sub-’ refers to the editor [noun] not to the activity [editing - a verb] for which the ‘editor’ or ’sub-editor’ is named. The activity of a sub-editor is still editing, but to distinguish, some people like ’subbing’ as a description of what precisely sub-editors do. ‘Subbing’ - a verb describing the activities associated with being junior, particularly in an editorial context).
O/T
Google Chrome: Plus point - it seems to come with its own spell-checker, when for example one is posting on PB.com, are you listening to this Martin?
Negative point - it doesn’t appear to remember one’s “name” and email address from one day to the next.
The worry in the labour party is simply about the competence of the leadership, and as such it isn’t a left-right thing. This summer has been terrible because the Tories have been putting forward all sorts of policy ideas - mostly bollox - without any co-ordinated rebuttal from the govt. The leadership has been banging on about the economic problems, which has served to raise expectations that are now being disappointed. And ironical when you consider that the oil price – one of the big worries – is now falling like a stone.
Gordon will have to give the speech of his life at conference but if it’s anything like the crappy address he gave at the NPF then he’ll disappoint people all over again. He will of course get a “stander” but there is such a thing as a stony-faced ovation.
Oh yes, an excellent put-down from Nigel Griffiths. But I agree with poster no 7.
John Kellett - failing that, somebody could find out their telephone number and post it on the internet.
The most asinine thing about this was their claim that it was ‘a mistake’. A ‘mistake’ is where a member of staff fails to follow the agreed policy and procedure - NOT where the agreed policy is reprehensible in the first place…
Still, maybe we shouldn’t get too aerated - if a member of HM armed forces feels aggrieved by cr@p treatment, I think they should just be allowed to sort it out for themselves, RAMBO-STYLE !!
That’ll learn ‘em !!!
I am so bloody bored of Brown.
That is all.
“If there are a number of make commentators waxing lyrical ”
Should be male, not make!
68
Insofar as Cameron will hopefully be campaigning on ’small’ government with promises of cuts in the number of Quangos, MP’s and assorted hangers-on,to propose a new parliament for England would be difficult.
I believe most people would be happy with English votes for English issues,which doesn’t involve lots of extra expenditure.
In terms of Scotland a referendum on extra powers with less Westminster MP’s or maintaining the existing set up would be fine.
I had thought that the Assembly in Wales was regarded as just a talking shop and not a very popular one at that.Why not have a referendum on whether people in Wales still want it,or keep it as is or with enhanced powers?
102.Under Blair a few years ago you would be knocked over in the stampede in the news studio’s.
In the old days a member of the cabinet who publicly criticised the PM was risking damaging their career. Brown’s in real trouble when cabinet colleagues see coming out in defence or support of him as a damaging future career move.
110. The police decision to (arguably) assault, arrest and detain a man for taking photos of them driving the wrong way down a one-way street was also referred to as a ‘mistake’ if I remember rightly.
108. Might try it!
68 Morus, it is official Scots Tory policy to grant more powers to the Scottish Parliament (not Assembly that’s what the Welsh have). Currently there is an enquiry proceeding supported by the Tories, LibDems and Labour in Scotland looking at what additional powers can and should be ceded to Holyrood. For that reason alone all 3 unionist parties are dancing to Alex Salmond’s agenda. They hope the more powers they cede the more it will lance the SNP boil. However the contrary appears to be happening.
I love Richard Nabavi’s idea of Gordon Brown defecting to the SNP. Only 1 problem with that (if it wasn’t suggested in anything other than jest) Alex Salmond loathes Brown so the SNP would reject his application.
I never much liked Charles Clarke as Home Secretary. I put him in the same group as John Reid, namely a thuggish looking character who behaves like a small town nightclub bouncer bully. However as both he and Ian Gibson face the prospect of Norwich turning blue, no wonder he is carping at Brown.
Just heard bits of the Palin speech again. The voice really is grating to a European but I guess most Americans will love it. I object to her being compared to Margaret Thatcher. Even if elected she will never be a Thatcher. To be fair, CLinton whom I have never liked is far more of a female politician in the Thatcher mould than Sarah Palin ever will be.
I like John McCain and think Barack Obama has some magic dust about him. Biden strikes me as an old duffer but Palin scares the life out of me because I could see her turning into a female George W Bush which probably means more illegal wars, badly thought out foreign policy and interference in the internal politics of so called allied nations.
We managed to make a mess of most of the world in the 19th century and post WWI created the disaster which is the present day middle east. Whether McCain or Obama wins, I just hope he learns from our mistakes in the British Empire and calms down world flashpoints rather than create new ones.
107 - Note for Morus. Isn’t ’sub-editing’ just editing done badly?
116. be warned: you will need more than a spell checker before you can make your first coherent post
117 - “To be fair, CLinton whom I have never liked is far more of a female politician in the Thatcher mould” - wash your mouth out. Now. With hydrofluoric acid.
117 - I didn’t realise that was Scottish Tory policy, cheer Easterross.
113 - JohnF. I wasn’t mad keen on the Assembly when it frst came along, and there was a perception it was just a local talking shop, but now I think it has a much better reputation.
Free prescriptions, economic regeneration, improvement in Cardiff as a gateway to the rest of Wales, bringing hospital cleaning back in-house to beat MRSA - I reckon there is a generally favourable view of the Assembly, and most of that support would agree that the Richards’ Commission Report should be implemented, giving the Senedd similar powers to the Scottish Parliament.
That said, I don’t think there is any appetite left for independence in Wales. Even half of Plaid aren’t that keen any more.
118 - Yes, perhaps!
Labour as collective & individuals must regret contrast between their party and both the Democrats and Republicans in the US.
For both of the American parties have brought forth truly exciting new nominees for their national tickets to balance the usual suspects.
By way of contrast, the most exciting “new” face that Labour is capable of mustering right now is David Milband.
Now I’ve never met either Barack Obama or Sarah Palin. But I’m certain that Miliband ain’t no Obama or Palin.
Well the squaddies who enjoy drunkenly trashing hotel rooms are just reaping what they sow.
111 - Why not try a nice light beige or rusty ochre instead? Here to help.
104
I was asking the same question about the commission for racial equality and what action if any they were going to take following monday’s channel 4 Dispatches programme.
113 If English votes for English Laws was (rightly IMO) brought in you wouldn’t need to reduce the number of Scots MPs, as they just wouldn’t vote on things that didn’t concern their constituents.
As a separate matter you might want to reduce the pay and allowances of the Scots MPs, given that they have less to do….
O/T Robert Reich gives a detailed account of what was required during his vetting prior to being Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton. Extremely thorough and lasted a month. There is no way Sarah Palin could have gone through the same process in such a short period of time:
http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/09/vetting.html
122 - I think it has to do with the system in operation. The US system is designed so that it is easier for people to explode onto the scene. Candidates are chosen when the election is fairly imminent wheras in Britain the candidates are usually in place for ages.
125. That body should be first to go in the bonfire of quangos.
“The police decision to (arguably) assault, arrest and detain a man for taking photos of them driving the wrong way down a one-way street was also referred to as a ‘mistake’ if I remember rightly.”
A man whose DNA will be retained on file indefinitely.
123 - It isn’t them reaping what they sow in fairness. It is some considerate fellow visiting an old pal in hospital who is reaping what a small minority of his colleagues sowed. I do have a tiny bit of sympathy for the hotel, but let’s not forget that it was unfair on a decent chap.
46…completely round the bend. get him off the stage!
The video accompanying this piece is a fellow Viet Nam POW’s view of John McCain psychological suitability to be POTUS:
http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/09/sarah-palins-de.html
If you have not watched before you should do.
Kevin Maguire in the New Statesman today reveals that last year David Miliband asked Rebekah Wade if it was likely Rupert Murdoch would support him in a leadership contest for the Labour Party. It can hardly be a surprise that the most Europhile member of the cabinet received the answer ‘no’.
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/09/pickles-fat-hear-gawper
117 - really great post ER
Can see why both rightwing and lefties dislike your insignt re: Thatcher-Clinton, shades of The Colonel’s Lady and Judy O’Grady. But plenty of truth there which is why it’s so irritating to the Maggie/Hillary lovers/haters.
You have also put yer finger on another very significant McCain-Palin risk factor.
As for Palin’s voice, I find it occassionally irritating. When she hits the note a bit too high there is definitely an element of chalk squeeking on a black board. Am guessing a speech coach is in her future; if still around would recommend whomever got Lady T to lower her voice which was a huge help to her as a public speaker.
128 - good point. But cold comfort to Labour right now.
134. Plus the news that Miliband was so actively courting Murdoch won’t go down well with party members or trade unionists. The fact that Maguire has published it now rather than last year (when much more topical) reveals the degree of Brownite insecurity at the moment.
135 - no, SSI, there’s bugg*r all truth in the insight re: Thatcher-Clinton. Thatcher was a conviction politician who rose to the top on her own merits. Clinton is a candidate who rode her husband’s coat-tails, and is driven only by her own ambition. You might like either/both/neither, but don’t for a second they have anything in common apart from female chromosomes.
128. Yes - you’ve hit the nail on the head. Any fresh leadership contenders that have been in Government will be tarred now with collective resposibility. Any that haven’t been in Government will be asked were they a) not up to it or b) not prepared to serve Labour in that way.
138. they both seem to inspire passion in their opponents more than their supporters, and they may well both be remembered by history as bunglers
138. Agreed. I can see no similarities whatever between them.
139. i don’t think so necessarily, there are plenty of ministers who seem to have done a competent job. their problem, under what has been a semi-presidential system, is low profile, not collective responsibility.
It’s not Brown that’s in trouble, it’s the Labour Party. No change of leader will make any difference this side of the election. Labour cannot claw themselves back by doing anything better. They will only recover when the Tories start to cock up, and I fear that we will have to see them elected before that happens.
There is no Sarah Palin in the Labour Party.
We’ve got a tough couple of years ahead. If GB had any sense he’d call a GE now and lose. The Tories would be unable to turn things around and they would then start to feel the pinch, loose popularity, loose council seats etc. Labour could use the next 4 years to pull itself back together. If it doesn’t it will fall apart, and when the Tories fails (as they inevitably will) it will be the Lib Dems who have most to gain (assuming that they can at least hold onto their current poll rating)
But of course Brown will not call an election and his failure to do so will see Labour’s local council base further eroded over the next two years, making a recovery even more unlikely.
OT the economy
Just when you think it’s all over, you might wish to read this…and realsie why UK banks are - despite the support of a pundit on PB - still a BAD bet…
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/why-britains-banks-are-on-borrowed-time-13550.aspx
137
Maguire doing Brown’s dirty work.. what a surprise.
126 Gasman, I think you would find most Scots no longer see the point of having MPs at Westminster because they do so little. Lord Forsyth suggested that we should have one set of politicians who spend half their time at Holyrood and half their time at Westminster.
I think there is a strong argument for abolishing separate Scottish, Welsh and Ulster MPs at Westminster and instead allocating seats to the Westminster parliament in proportion to the success of each party in it’s native Parliament or Assembly and then each party nominating serving MSPs, AMs or NI Assembly members to also carry out the Westminster role and exclude them from voting on any England only legislation. That way we save a fortune in extra politicians, start to address the West Lothian question and create the potential for some interesting new parliamentarians at Westminster. After all between 2003 and 2007 we had 6 Greens and 5 SSP MSPs in Scotland and whilst I fundamentally disagree with virtually everything both stand for, it would be healthy for democracy if voters who support such parties felt their views were being represented in Parliament.
There is a precedent for this. For years prior to the first direct election of UK MEPs, each of the major UK parties nominated existing Westminster MPs to act as Euro MPs as well. Winnie Ewing of the SNP and the late Lord Russell Johnston were 2 such individuals.
139. Not the way I see it. Collective responsibility is about policies that the govt has signed up to but it’s about leadership ability, not policies.
144. who is that pundit out of interest? haven’t heard anyone supporting UK banks here or anywhere else for that matter.
143
Tough couple of years?
I wish I shared your optimism.
The Lib Dems with the most to gain?
I wish I lived in lahlah land as well
In the 1970’s at the depths of the dire state the labour government back then got Britain into, regular talk of a coup were peddled about various parts of society. Could now be the time for the Armed Services or even a private army to remove Labour from Office and run free and fair elections with no postal voting?
144
Well you should read Roger’s posts.. He supports Labour and advised us all this year to buy the banks.
We told he was nuts. He told us the credit crunch was the tories talking down the economy.
What a pity the soldier refused a room by the Metro Hotel in Woking wasn’t a homosexual black muslim. Something might then have been done about it.
152. He would probably run for high office
77 - “whine” is really not a good word for Gov. Palin to bandy about!
Have zero doubt Lily Tomlin can do a killer Sarah P. imitation. Ditto the woman who does the voice of the old lady next door for “Arthur the Big Red Dog”
Note: this MUST be the first time that Arthur (he may be red but clearly Birdwell Island is blue state turf) has gotten a memtion on PB. Even a massive mutt’s not safe!
135 - didn’t say total similarity, just some truth there. Also your characterization of both Lady Thatcher and Sen. Clinton is way too cardboard cutout. Esp. in early careers, Hillary was much more conviction & ideology driven and Thatcher much more pragmatic and ambition driven. In both cases the one hand was washing the other.
138 - they perhaps you’re not looking hard enough?
Afternoon all
Just noticed that the US stock market is having a very bad day with the DJIA down over 230 points. Both the DJIA and FTSE are heading back toward their respective early July “lows” of 11,000 and 5,000 respectively so have we seen the stock market equivalent of a Brown “bounce” ? I read somewhere that small-scale rallies and returns are the classic markers of a bear market.
I’ve read (though not listened to) Sarah Palin’s speech. Suitably combative and of course well received by the GOP faithful. I rarely agree with Easterross but his post at 117 pretty much mirrors my concern about Palin.
I agree her speech could have been made less forcibly by George W. Bush and I can only suppose her presence represents a sop to those neo-cons who can’t abide McCain but who perhaps grudingly admire him. Her comments about energy policy forget the convenient point that drilling, new nuclear power plants etc are a medium to long-term solution. In the short-term energy dependency remains an issue for both the USA and Western Europe.
139 - Where is Victor Grayson when we need him?
148 - for the record, the “pundit” in question, in response to the Northern Rock fiasco a year ago, wrote:
———————————————————
“Very good move by Darling and it will all be forgotten by Friday. I think banks are seriously cheap at the moment and as long as they aren’t badly exposed to the US then well worth buying.
by Roger September 17th, 2007 at 6:50 pm”
———————————————————
Anyway it looks like the panic is over and the banking system will be stronger for this scare. Politically I can’t see it being anything other than a seven day wonder. I suspect anyone who trusted the government so little that they’d queue all night despite BOE guarantees are Tories anyway!
by Roger September 18th, 2007 at 8:37 am
———————————————————-
Also, for the record, the thoughts of our resident MP:
———————————————————
It looks as though the run has been stopped in its tracks. …
The cost to the taxpayer of guaranteeing that they won’t go bust is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy that should cost nothing. ….
by Nick Palmer MP September 18th, 2007 at 9:42 am
———————————————————
Oh, the beauty - and the danger - of blogging with your thumb up your bum and your mind in neutral.
146 That does sound like the beginnings of a very good solution to the current mess. I have to admit I hadn’t thought that far through. It would have some big benefits - fewer politicians and correcting some of the WLQ being the main ones.
155. Historical experience would suggest the bear market in stocks could have some way to go, certainly - though there will be plenty of fluctuation round the trend, as always. We are about 19% down from peak on the S&P now, but proper bear markets usually involve drops around 30-33%.
157.
Where is Nick by the way? Have not seen him on here for a while, hope he is not unwell or plotting!
Must be tough for him at the moment as he can see the Government disintergrating in front of his eyes.
155 - I don’t think it’s neo-cons so much stodge, she has few formed views on foreign policy and they aren’t down their line, hints of Buchananite isolationism as far as I can see (at least pre-this week), but she is there to appeal to the christian right.
This is what Bush was able to do so there is that similarity. In fact she is the person that people who would support Bush if it wasn’t such a pariah-making move could support. The people who got her there are testimony to that.
The Fallows article I linked to earlier says this - “Second, I wonder how Palin’s mocking, contemptuous tone about Obama will travel and age. It was great inside the hall — again, think of Al Franken, who would of course have been funnier. But the track record of cocky-sounding newcomer politicians is not so great. “
155 - really don’t get anywhere near full effect reading rather than seeing Palin speech, more so than with most orations. For one thing, her delivery was just about perfect. And since last Friday, she’s had one of the most remarkable and (I think) successful woman politico fashion makeovers I’ve ever seen. Moved her hair & wardrobe uptown in a hurry but still let Sarah be Sarah. For example, she still has chignon or whatever her snood-hair is properly called, but its modified, deemphasized and the front and back are much better than before she hit the Big Time.
Incidentially Margaret Thatcher was a master at marshalling fashion to her cause. As is Hillary. But on British shores, believe credit is due on this front to at least two Labour politicos: Barbara Castle (who did it well, in part by denigrating it in public including her diaries but NEVER neglecting it in practice) and Jenny Lee (who went overboard and paid the price).
151. in conventional wisdom that is a strong ’sell’ signal.
there will be a trade in the near-medium future that makes a killing in this sector, but buying now is not it
Charles Clarke seems to have lost his role in the Labour Party which was to make John Prescott seem like an intellectual giant. Even in a suit he also somehow manages to remind me of those middle aged gents who share their snakebite around the steps of tthe war memorial.
I’ve listened to the Palin speech and feel reral proud not to have vomited in the first five schmalzy minutes. Sarah Palin ’s staccato sounds like a cross between Lady Penelope and a dalek - and she dresses like the secretary in those 60s US TV series that they bought cheap over here in the 70s. Stepford rules KO!! She did the job she was expected to do perfectly - touched all the reactionary spots. The Republicans’ National Guard in feeding frenzy make Saddam Hussein’s namesakes seem cuddly koalas by comparison. Eat Dirt Arnold Schwarzenegger, you Soft-bellied Jewish-Liberal lover you!!
But it’s the economy stupid.
160 its been doing that for some time. Interesting that Clarke says no plot (which is what Nick Palmer said), which I think is patently untrue.There is a plotting all the time but there’s not enough courage to do it. I have long thought a 50% poll would be enough for any Labour MP in a marginal(less than 10% lead) to start requiring incontinence pants.
160 - Nick Palmer is probably hiding in a dark corner licking his wounds, after a scathing mention in the latest Private Eye over his part in the failure of the National Audit Office.
Re: 161, 162 and 164: Well, that’s three ways of looking at it, I suppose
164 - yes at St Paul the economy is the mad aunt in the attic. And for all the GOP pride in the surge the fading of Iraq as an immediate issue is actually hurtful to the GOP (just like Tories took there big hit 103 years ago AFTER the end of the Boer War).
There is a fundamental millenianism and fatalism to Sarah Palin’s religious ideology that is similar to that of W though she’s clearly much smarter than our Imperial Lardhead.
164 - you reference the Dog That Did Not Bark - Gov. Schwartzenegger.
Is he still “held hostage” in Sacramento by the Cali budget crisis? Or will he be on-stage in St Paul tonight? McCain could surely wants him beside him right now? So where’s Arnold?
If true this is apalling and requires an investigation
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/09/reporter-follow.html
17 says: what could Broown do…so bold…the game-changing nature of the decision.
Cuts in public expenditure?
Never, It would give the Tories a free hand to argue about out of control public expenditure. I cannot see it happening.
Quite a dramatic day on Sporting’s commons seats markets. Now at 346-352 after inexplicably dropping to 340-346 at midday, only to then rise seat-by-seat in a matter of minutes back to 346-352. The market was then suspended for an hour or so, before reopening at a stable 346-352. The Lib Dems also dropped a point. It’s interesting to note that this is well ahead of Spreadfair.
Morus, what prohibited word have I just used to see a long posting just disappear?
174
Easterross, Copy it before you press send in case it disappears into the ether!
170.Beat me to it, I was just about to post a link to that story.
If true, I find it intriguing that we had two separate, but similar incidents involving the PM and another member of the cabinet on the same day.
155 - yes very unusual post Labour day. A crash looks ever more likely but will have to wait for the inevitable horrific earnings.
Talking of Crash - a great song - a video for all you 30 somethings out there. Don’t look if you are Darling though.
http://www.parkerchris.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/vocationvocationvocation.html
170, bloody appalling. I hope there’s footage or suchlike of it, though if it’s the AP I don’t think they carry cameras. Maybe someone else caught it.
174 Easterross. 1ain Dale ??
176. It is obvious to me that critical mass has been reached!
Could it be hours?
180. Until the brazen challange starts!
Has NickP been signing nomination papers today! Shussshhh!
Aside from the more famous Wolfgang incident, does anyone recall the less sinister but quite unreasonable tactic Labour used last GE? I’m thinking of where a manufactured phalanx of loyal party minions interpose themselves between the Supreme Leader and the petty hacks.
I hope there’s the appropriate outrage over this, and that it is merely one tawdry episode in Brown’s sorry tale rather than an emerging and permanent feature of politics in the UK.
165: lol, you just *know* there’s a plot, MTF, even though it never manifests itself and even critics like CC say there isn’t? Your concern for my pants is kind but not needed.
160: I’m here! Just busy - long radio interview, then went to a huge 6th form event in the constituency today, with Labour and the LibDems handing out loads of stickers and materials. The Tories were invited but decided not to bother. Probably they’re too busy posting on pb.com?
166: Haven’t read Private Eye for years (too much the professional cynics for my taste), so I’ve not seen whatever they’re on about.
157: that’s right - the run on the banks was stopped in its tracks by the guarantee. You maintain there’s still a run? Or you feel there isn’t a run, but you wish there was?
Mirthios 157. Have you noticed that Roger and NickP never revisit their futile statements, even when they are drawn to their attention? Yet they continue (with others like Coldstone and Wageslave) to pontificate on here as if they knew what they were talking about.I wonder if NickP M.P. will continue to do so, after he loses his seat - what are the odds against?
There seems to be a few mutterings in Westminster that we might be heading for a reshuffle sooner rather than later?
Wonder if Brown will do it to try and reassert his authority and steady the ship, or could we just be seeing some knee jerk back room briefing of one in an attempt to try and get everyone to shut up this week?
I ask because the other date being mentioned is after the conference which looks to me like an attempt to try and keep everyone on message during the conference. Bit like last year with the over hyped idea of an Autumn GE…
Glen Oglaza had a peice on a Reshuffle yesterday on Boulton&Co
Fraser Nelson asks Is a snap reshuffle coming on Monday?
183.”The Tories were invited but decided not to bother.”
Is that true Nick, could they just not be bothered?
183
If there isnt a plot Nick, then God help the Labour Party. You know there is plotting, I know there is plotting, its only the 70 plus Labour MP’s that are the bar to it going ahead. The worse things get… as they will, more will stick their head above the parapet. The fact that there isnt anyone in the Labour Party who commands support is a clear reflection of the weakness of the Cabinet. To suggest there is no plot is lol.
Phew, watched some the the Palin speech but couldn’t stomach the whole thing. They seem to be going for the core conservative vote and it surprises me that the GOP spindoctors wrote in such a strong “Eye-raq” message.
She said that the US is “on the point of winning” - an interesting formulation - and any bad news from Eye-raq during the campaign won’t be good news.
Huffpo splices some John Stewart gems on Rove, O’Reilly, Morris and hypocrisy !!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/jon-stewart-hits-karl-rov_n_123852.html
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 49%
Note. +1 Obama from yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Danny Finkelstein on Comment is free is the first person to ask a question which I wondered about after reading Carol Thatcher’s article about her mother.
The exploitation of Margaret Thatcher
187 - To be fair, ‘plotting’ is not quite the same as ‘a plot’. The latter carries an implication of something planned in a coherent way by a group of determined people who intend to put their plan into action. It could well be that, in that sense, there is no ‘plot’.
With Labour deciding the press are amongst the Not Yet Guilty, the EU seems to be deciding that freedom of speech needs a few boundaries:
http://dizzythinks.net/2008/09/eu-wants-to-take-contorl-of-message.html
192 - indeed, one could say that Labour have, in fact, lost the “plot”.
191. I brought up several times but nobody wanted to discuss it on here - I think it was appaling of Brown and I don’t know who “the friends of thatcher” were trying to protect: Certainly not the Iron Lady. indeed my opinion of her went down as a result of that visit, though I understand why she made it now. I doubt she would have done it before her illness set in. This is another display of why Brown is unfit for office.
When I commented on it before I posed the Harold Wilson question - i.e. The Tories did not exploit him in his later years for political purposes; what gives Labour the moral supperiority to do so.
As a cheap passing shot, Brown has nothing to worry about if he becomes incapacitated - nobody would be wanted to be associated with that freak anyway! He is probably busy using his felt-tip, Crayons and paper drawing new funny people to put round the cabinet table. Hopefully he will forget to put himself in the picture!
i. Given the most recent economic data, are we to assume that George W Bush’s economic stimulus package has worked, and if so, how many believed it would ?
ii. I would like to start a sweepstakes on how many more relaunches El Gordo will attempt before he is finally kicked out….
Robinson on BBC 6 o’clock news saying that the Govt’s announcement on a package of fuel help has been put back a week because they are not making progress in negotiations with the energy companies. “Anyone expecting a cash lump-sum from the Govt to help with fuel costs will be disappointed.”
183 - “were” not “was”. “wish” takes the conditional.
How much profit has the taxpayer made from Northern Rock so far, Nick. You’re the expert.
Gushing praise for Palin’s speech from Liam Fox here:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/09/thoughts-on-the.html
“She was poised, elegant and eloquent. She set out her views clearly and unapologetically but with considerable warmth and charm…” etc.
Yuk
198. They are so incompetent.
Obama leading 43:40 in North Dakota. Dems haven’t won here since LBJ in 1964….
http://www.dakotapolitics.com/blogPost.asp?PostId=10915
197. No doubt if they do a windfall people like me who are well below the breadline will end up paying for it! A band of people rapidly increasing! I think it is going to be a cold winter - strangly when there was last an active hurrican season as they say this one will be the following winter here was cooler!
186: ‘not be bothered’ - well, to be precise the organisers, when they sent the invitation two months ago, said they were told by the Tories, “We do not have anyone available for your event”. It’s one of the largest and most successful schools in the area, located in Toton, the strongest Tory ward in the constituency. I don’t know if it was exactly that they couldn’t be botheered, but with that much notice it’s hard to find another explanation, don’t you think?
203. Do the kids ever say something like: “My Mum/Dad does not like your boss Gordon Brown”?
Or even the same about you although I am sure even if they don’t agree with your Socialism, they like the person!
190-Gallop Dems leaning-Rasmussen only one I take note of.
203
Nick stop trying to deflect the argument from the main point. its an irrelevance.
203.Nick, telling the organisers that “We do not have anyone available for your event” is not the same as your interpretation, ”The Tories were invited but decided not to bother.”?
205. Whether or not a pollster favours one party or another is less important - providing that that bias is known - than the direction of travel, which in this case is near enough non-existant, the overall reliability of the firm, and the headline figures read in the context of previous results from the firm.
In UK terms, we know that ICM usually produces higher Lib Dem scores and YouGov seems to magnify the leads that other pollsters produce. That doesn’t necessarily make them inaccurate (though of course it might), but does mean these factors have to be taken into account when assessing how a candidate or party is doing.
Having posted this once I’ll post it again to give a factual basis.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php
Most Republican leaning pollster - Rasmussen, adding nearly 3%.
Fourth most Republican leaning pollster in this survey - Gallup, adding nearly 2%.
Democrat leaning pollsters (regularly polling) include CBS/NYT, adding 3.5% and AP-Ipsos adding 2%.
It would be very useful to have an article about US polling if anyone could do one, too many assumptions are being made whenever a poll is referred to. In the UK, if it’s MORI or Yougov we make allowances from what we know about them, articles such as the one I linked to from pollster.com help but, if not digested, can skew people’s view on the race and on their betting.
208 - David (good post this morning by the way which I was too late to reply to), the article from pollster.com I posted should give you an idea as to where US pollsters house bias is.
Again, the differences will probably come from weighting, question formulation and so on, just like our pollsters.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Brown Removals……………
208/9-Thank you Gentlemen for your observations-always been led to believe in the past Rasmussen was the most respected.
209. Most of these polls taken around the US conventions are worthless - that includes the ones next week as well!
Bit like the one in the UK that claimed Labour were 13 Points ahead last year.
O/T - Will this impact the White House Race?
http://us.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/09/04/detroit.mayor/index.html
211. I suppose they couldn’t make the lego trench with lego figure burning in the flames round the back of No.10.
192. That’s my take on the situation - people are muttering that ’something must be done’, but no-one really knows what, how or who. There’s discontent but no actual plot. Apart from anything else, it’s difficult plotting when everyone is dispersed all over the country (and beyond). It’s not so much that you can’t plan things - that’s relatively easy with modern communications - it’s that it’s very difficult to know what anyone else might be planning and so how events might impact on the plot. Plots by their nature tend to be one-shot chances, so anyone involved really wants to be fairly sure that it will have a decent chance of working before signing up.
215
Is that suttee or thuggee I can never remember which is which?
212 - It’s not really a matter of respected, Rasmussen (as compared to Zogby, ARG etc.) is very much so. Nobody knows who has got this right, Rasmussen are on the edge but that doesn’t mean they are wrong but, then again, Harris Interactive on the opposite edge might be right. With so many pollsters, however, the tendency is to believe those in the centre rather than on the edges.
214. Yes, this sort of thing could permeat into the US presidential election - It is the home of the original Reagan Democrats and what is more the Democratic Mayor scandal has happened at just the wrong time in terms of Obama and ethnic origin.
Here is the blokes Wiki page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwame_Kilpatrick
218-noted.Thanks
Keegan has gone.
221 - Again?
Either the Evening Standard needs a new sub-editor or Sarah Palin has had a very busy day:
Sarah Palin was today battling claims she had an affair today - just hours after a barnstorming debut speech to the Republican convention made her a party heroine.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23550970-details/Sarah+Palin+is+accused+of+affair/article.do
210. Thanks.
222 Yep. Twice in a week?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/n/newcastle_united/7593683.stm
201 MM. I posted that ND poll yesterday !! Do keep up.
By the way, it is a fair guess that neither Obama or Biden will not refer to Palin in any detail in the near future. If anyone is going to be deployed it is going to be Hillary Clinton, and she will be given a relatively free rein.
Double negative, should be “neither Obama or Biden will refer to Palin “
227 - Only just seen this, as I hadn’t checked HuffPo recently but it pretty much confirms the tactic, it’s Democrat women who will be the ones to counter Palin, in this case Sebelius and Wasserman Schulz. Obama and Biden will, however, double up on McCain.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/sebelius-accuses-palin-of_n_123883.html
228. nor
230 -
229. “Palin is rubbish - I mean her husband hasn’t cheated on her even once..”
Nick, did you ask any of the little tykes if they’re looking forward to being forced to pay and be fingerprinted for an ID card when they turn 16?
233. Even better: were they looking forward to the school leaving age rising!
an ad airing in Michigan with a catchy slogan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdXaE-mMXTg
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
A nice aricle her (the top one on the page), about why even though Palin’s speech was good it won’t be effective. The details towards the end are particulary convincing to me.
226 But surely it was worth repeating it - for the addition of my insightful context!
(Drat! If it weren’t for those pesky 105 year olds, I’d have got away with it….)
BBC are reporting that the One-off fuel payment is ruled out. C4 news carried the same story.
“Ministers have ruled out giving consumers a one-off payment to help with fuel bills, the BBC has learned.
The government had planned to unveil a a package to alleviate soaring gas and electricity bills this week.
But Whitehall sources said the focus of ongoing talks with energy firms was now on improving energy efficiency, not cutting costs in the short term.”
238 only because it would be treated with the same derision as the one off council tax bribe pre 2005 election…..
237 MM. You make a very useful sorcerer’s apprentice …. just keep away from those brooms !!
the dow is down 316 pts , london ftse opening tomorrow wont be fun…
226/201 ..These polls like the Dakota one are really pathetic. Based on a mere 400/500 respondents. They are completely misleading, and if anyone places bets on these results, thry are fools.
240 I’m getting horrible wizzard’s sleeve/ARSE cross-over notions…
242 There are only 635,000 folks in North Dakota. Maybe 450,000 voters? So a poll with 400/500 respondents accesses 1 in 1000 of all voters. Is that really such a poor sample? The pro-rata equivalent would require a sample of 6,000 for the London mayoral.
241. Why is it when ever Brown relaunches his economic plans like oil earlier this year the price goes in the opposite direction.
Mind you he will again be seen as saying there are not problems hay-presto the market falls the next day. Brown must be the unluckiest PM ever!
88,173 - Sporting’s rise in Tory seats/fall in Labour seats today reflects the fact that the market has finally accepted there will be no leadership challenge this year and therefore Gordon is likely to remain in post for at least another 9 months.
Whilst this is clearly very good news for the Tories who see their potential majority increasing with every passing month, it’s difficult to see what’s in it for Gordon who must now realise that a crushing defeat at the next General Election is virtually certain.
My own take on this is that he is determined to fight a rearguard action in attempting to save his carefully nurtured reputation as having been a “brilliant” Chancellor, the “best since WW2″ - another year like the last and the Emperor will be shown to have no clothes and he will instead be seen as having been an absolute disaster.
BTW, anyone know when the Blair memoirs are due to be published - I thought they were originally planned for this Autumn?
243 MM. Ah …. the downside of being in the inner sanctum of politcal punditry genius !!
242. Any of the ones around the convention seem to be complete bollocks lurching one way and then the other. As I don’t bet it does not matter but the election is still 50/50 for president and Obama will have quite a few who will split ticket on the race issue.
244. Marquee Mark: Is that really such a poor sample?
Yes. It’s counter-intuitive, I agree, but the way that the maths of sampling works means that the margin of error depends upon the sample size and the polled rating, but not on the population size.
Bob Worcester wrote about this here last week.
223 LOL!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1052404/Sex-slur-hits-pitbull-lipstick–Palin-forced-fight-claims-affair.html
Hmmm there’s a horrible inevitability about all this isn’t there.
246. I think he said he wanted to avoid publishing before a GE like Ali C but given that Labour are a nailed on loss - Blair might as well cash in now: Why wait for Brown to devalue your pension pot. Brown screwed up his chance, Blair suffered 10 years of grief at the hands of Brown. Stuff Brown - Publish and be dsmmed.
252 publish and laugh….
253. Yes
249 In 2006 I followed a lot of the polling for the Senate/Congress contests, which often had a similar sample size and generally proved to be a very indicator of the result - certainly when considering +/-3% margin of error. Watch them - and how they mirror the actual results in November - and I think you’ll be surprised at their accuracy.
255 “a very good indicator”
223,251 “Sarah Palin was today battling claims she had an affair, just hours after a barnstorming debut speech to the Republican convention made her a party heroine.”</I?
I appreciate that the Mail and Evening Standard are part of the same group, but it rather sounds as though the same reporter wrote both pieces.
Clarke Miliband Brown - europhiles all. This is political theatre, designed to take your mind of the fact that the BOE has leant £200 billion to British banks in the last three months. That’s how bad things are - in addition to the £100 billion needed to bail out Northern Rock.
Now the Shropshire murder story has been milked to destruction, which acted as a week-long news blanket, they are trying to manufacture another one.
Pity is all the blogs fall for it, including Political Betting.
257 Oops, sorry for the itallics.
Strange as it may seem, there are plenty of Americans who are blissfully unaware of the existence of Sarah Palin, let alone her saga both long-term and since last Friday.
This is because normal people enjoyed their Labor Day Weekend without worrying about what was on the tube or in the paper. And this week has been the typical 4-day catch-up after a big 3-day weekend.
Meaning that for huge numbers of likely October/November voters, Gov. Palin is still terra incognita . . . and not yet even ultima thule!
258 is this thro guilt sales?
251. Bloodyhell if she could manage a fulltime job, 5 kids and an affair she is obviously good at multi-tasking! She obviously has a good head on her.
Seattleite Still Wowing London
Just saw item on local Seattle news re: hometown hero the late, great Jimmi Hendrix, specifically that a guitar he torched at Finsbury Park concert back in the day, is being auctioned off today for est. $1m
261 cancel enquiry, i realise now that it cannot be
263. SSI - BBC reported it sold for £280k, if I heard the figure correctly.
262
lets not go there, perhaps you should re-phrase/??
258 How much more will they need to lend if property prices fall another 15%-20% as appears likely?
Can these vast amounts of taxpayers’ money be handed out without the Treasury being required to make any announcement whatsoever at the time?
The banking system really is in dire straits isn’t it?
267
WTF is the Bof E doing?
262
The term, ‘good head’ may not be a wise description of Ms Palin.
151: Ah yes Roger’s advice to Buy Barclays, and didn’t he say the credit crunch would blow over in a week? He’s like that muppet David Aaronovitch, if ever i’m unsure about something, I read what he writes about it, and know for sure that the opposite is true.
Ed, i’d love to know what you are reading which suggests that the UK economy is not in absolutely dire straits! (And I don’t count delusional fantasists like Anatole Kaletsky in the Times, or his Sunday partner in la la land David Smith)
262 - That was kind of my thought - whereever would she find the time. Still, modern superwomen do lead hectic lives, but somehow manage to cram more and more into their, ahem, schedules.
Personally don’t believe Palin had a affair, leastways anything beyond platonic. And would advise Dems to avoid subject like the plague. After all, media will let us all know it there’s any there there.
IF there true is something to it, then would be deal breaker and ticket changer. Becauase of lack of immediate disclosure, the way the new Gov of New York publically disclosed his infidelity when he was sworn in to replace Elliott Spitzer. Affair itself would NOT be upset the applecart though it would throw a wrench between the spokes.
This could be a critical schwerpunckt (point of contact and focus for major forces and trends) in the presidential race.
And the court of judgement will be The Big Interview (may be more than one, but likely than one with be the Real Deal) with Dianne Sawyer or Barbara Walters as the Grand Inquisitor and the American public as judge and jury.
270: Sorry, didn’t get as far as post 157 before replying! Priceless quotes there.
I really really hope these people are sitll around come election night, it going to be such fun
On Palin speech - good, but the ticket is still unquestionably behind in the polls. Desperately need some kind of bounce over the next couple of days.
… I noticed that Boulton suggested a potential Brownian reshuffle could see Balls as Chancellor, Milliband as Home Secretary, Darling as Foreign Secretary and Jacqui Smith demoted to Education.
…
… am I the only one who thinks demoting Smith would be *ludicrous?*
… Now I am in no way a fan of Jacqui Smith. She still seems out of her depth and there are still worrying scandals coming from the Home Office (eg loss of data), but… but… there doesn’t seem to be that same level of media hostility that there was in the days of Reid. In some ways I think she’s been told to take the Home Office off the front pages as best she can, and in that sense, presiding over the most difficult government department, I think she’s done a *relatively* good job.
There’s also a chance that a Smith demotion + Smith being in a vulnerable seat thus having nothing to lose = a resignation from the government and backbench carping a la Clarke.
I think Brown is too weak to reshuffle anyone radically. A Darling demotion might be the best tactic if he wants fresh blood, perhaps to something like Defence (get the loathsome Browne away from the portfolio!) as I don’t think Darling is the sort to carp if he’s given alternative (though lesser) duties. And for god’s sake, Gordon, don’t put Ed Balls within 10 yards of Number 11!
Gordon’s best option at the moment *would* be to have a Palin moment and pluck a talented backbencher with a strong independent flair and send them straight into the upper echelons of government. That would signify renewal. But he doesn’t have that talent on the backbenches to choose from. Labour MPs in the past 10 years have been characterised by being essentially humourless and spineless creeps.
265 - so just over half of the hyped price.
Am thinking of takig my kazoo out in the alley and pissing on it - let the bidding begin!
271
America is such a litigious country, if it isnt true, the media could be in for a costly time…
251. Another day, another ’scandal’, it seems…
… again, it’s got to worry McCain. But if this continues, and none of these stories prove very serious/untrue, I think there could be a backlash.
Evening all. My money (hypothetically) is on McCain being a bit of a letdown after Palin’s superb performance last night.
276. True, I mean, not untrue!
273.”Gordon’s best option at the moment *would* be to have a Palin moment and pluck a talented backbencher with a strong independent flair and send them straight into the upper echelons of government.”
Jon Cruddas would have fitted the bill perfectly, but alas, he has apparently resisted all attempts to persuade him to take a ministerial post. Shame that the Labour party picked Harriet Harman over Cruddas in the Deputy leadership contest…..
273 - Promoting Jacqui Smith was ludicrous, demoting her would be no more than she deserves, however whether it is politically feasible now is another matter. Frankly Brown isn’t actually falling over talent to replace the lightweights he has in at the moment!
273 Matt1. Now the trackers have factored in Dubya’s nine minute video glad tiding for McCain, I’m a bit disappointed that Obama hasn’t broken 60% !!
273. A reshuffle is too much of ‘easy pickings’ for Cameron.
He can just turn round and say, you might change the faces but the words remain the same and call for an election.
I was amused by an MP on the news, John Grogan saying any leasership change would mean an election. I believe this has been said by enough Labour MP’s now to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mind you he is standing down anyway, so he doesn’t give a shit!
Mind you I think if you go for re-election but fail you get a better deal rather than just standing down?
For all you coupon clippers: Boeing International Aeromachinists (IAM) have agreed to delay threatened strike pending outcome of 48-hr last-chance negotiations between company and union now being held at secret location. Crystal clear that workers will go out unless company makes significant concessions in wages, pensions; right now Boeing has full orderbook so Machinists have some real leverage.
Coincidentally, public school teachers are on strike in Bellevue, a generally upscale Seattle suburb which has one of the largest school districts in the state. Wages are at dispute, but seems the real bone of contention is teacher objections to highly centralized & structured ciriculum imposed by district leadership. This in one of Washington’s best public school districts based on funding (part state but also part local property taxes, which are high and almost never voted down in Bellevue), test scores and college placements.
As Blair said to Major.. Weak, weak, weak. There is nothing to the cabinet. Its shuffling the deckchairs, save for Brown removing any possible challenge, which would be very dangerous anyway. it might precipitate a challenge…
244. A poll of 450 of either ND, London, or the entire planet would produce the same level of precision. Only when sample size exceeds about 5% of the population size does precision improve…
McCAIN grills the opposition!!!!
286. Better than Brown, who will dig a trench fill it with petrol and shot himself in it! Great balls of fire!
242/226/201 I hear what you’re saying re the poll size-but surely there is some significance in North dakota even being describable as ‘competitive’,as it is a state the Democratic Party have not carried since LBJ’s 1964 landslide,when only 5 GOP states were left
286 McCain will be chipped come November 5th!(And no doubt so will be Watford FC on a couple of occasions!
)
284. Brown has even dithered on the reshuffle, first it was going to be after the locals, then it was off, then after Glasgow, then it was off, then before the conference, then it off, then after the conference - now it is after the SNP victory in some-shit hole in Scotland……………….
The re-shuffle will never happen.
At least John Major never got to this point! JM still had enough authority to manage a re-shuffle. Brown is utterly crap!
86 - Tonight you are most likely wrong. Though I do believe McCain will give a great speech. But he will NOT be the Mad Slasher (or Griller). Instead, he will tell America about himself and present a positive agrument why he is the best qualified candidate at the critcal moment in American and global history to deserve the votes required to make him the next President of the United States.
New American Viewpoint poll for Alaska :
McCain 57% .. Obama 33%
Note - As expected Palin swings home state Alaska firmly red.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/09/03/alaska-poll-palin-is-mrs-popularity/
288 Weathercock is wrong in contention that sample size of 400/500 for a statewide survey is “completely misleading.”
It most certainly is not, for the topline, that is the full survey not the subsets. Still reasonable for subsets over say 100. Below that gets iffy quick. But for the basic question is AOK 19 times out of 20.
Possible the latest ND survey is the rogue elephant. Or rather donkey. BUT note that Malcolm the Wandering Englander has been polling local residents in his patch of the Flickertail State for some time and reporting that the natives were getting restless against the GOP and excited about Obama.
289 Watford will be creamed several times by then!
290 Brown is worst politician of all time
292 ‘McCain 57% .. Obama 33%’
GO PALIN
GO PALIN
GO PALIN
GO PALIN
GOP = freedom fighters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
192 - stratch that longshot target. Just a few months ago, a well-placed Democrat loosely attached to the Obama campaign asked me if I thought Alaska might actually be in play this year. Told him I doubted it. But the fact that the question even came up was good news.
294
289 re Watford is correct Ave it 08!
Dow is down 319 pts…
Excellent viewing figures for Palin - 37.1M. Only around a million down on Obama :
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/09/palin-ratings-s.html
297 make that down 329.91
It seems to me that one of the golden rules in politics is never to believe your own propaganda. In the absence of any coherent or credible narrative - a point astutely made by Martin Bright in the New Statesman - Labour bloggers and posters on PB are clinging to two flimsy comfort blankets:
1. David Cameron still hasn’t “sealed the deal” (sic) with the voters, notwithstanding 6 months of poll leads in the 15-24% range - at least comparable given more accurate methodology to Blair’s leads in 1995-1997 - as well as evidence from real elections, and
2. That somehow a phanthom army of extremist, right wing MPs lying dormant in the Parliamentary Conservative Party, are biding their time (like in Invasion of the Body Snatchers)to launch a post-election putsch against Cameron and replace him with a uber Thatcherite “true believer” and that the “real” Conservative Party will out and the voters will say - “Oh dear - we’ve been suckered by the Tories”!
The latter one in particular is ludicrous nonsense but if it stops Labour MPs crying into their beer, then who am I to disabuse them of entertaining the prospect of such rubbish? Much better than speaking to activists in their own CLPs - who will no doubt be telling them what a sterling job Gordon Brown is doing!!!!
194 - should be in St Paul, they’d truly love you there. Hint that you were Lady Thatcher’s 3rd cousin twice removed and you’d be a shoo-in to make the best parties. Which granted are going to be like the B- or C-List affairs in Denver. But that’s what happens when you run off all the elites.
Running off a few is almost always a good idea. But the whole kit-and-kaboodle all at once, that’s a tad risky. Especially for a supposedly conservative party.
Suggestions that the PM might move Miliband (or other “rival”) to Chancellor is missing something. Brown seems to be genuinely suffering a delusion complex about the state of the economy, and his role in it. Darling is Chancellor because he was not expected to stand up to him, allowing Brown to basically continue doing the job himself. And that is more or less what has happened.
Suggestions that Brown might put someone who might challenge him as Chancellor are implausible whilst the delusion remains that he should be running the economy personally.
301 - Kerry had all the celebs too. He was still a crappy candidate.
300 - quite. The Tories will not be slashing and burning the moment they come into power. In fact, the odds must be on tax rises very early to get the finances back in order. Just like Boris.
297/299 yes looking forward to more losses on my unit trusts
THANKS GORDON!!!!!!!
300 BOO! We Tories are going to cover ourselves in sheets, run around and scare the voters HEHEHEHE oh no thats GORDON BROWN!!!
From the Speccie coffee house blog
Amid all the Labour backbiting and leadership speculation, there remain some – almost comically enthusiastic – voices of support for Gordon Brown. Here’s Tony Lloyd, chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party, speaking to the BBC earlier:
“The truth is most Labour MPs, the overwhelming majority, want Gordon Brown to be the one who delivers the policies, makes sure that they are implemented …. Anybody who would have taken Gordon Brown on [in last year's Labour leadership contest] would have been crushed … he continues to be the outstanding politician of this era.”
200 Aren’t these almost the exact mirror image of the arguments the Tories used in the last years apres le deluge, to (try to) convince themselves (if no one else) that they could still pull one more victory from the maw of looming catastrophic defeat?
Realism would be more bitter but better medicine. If Labour is to achieve the best-case scenario: containing it’s losses and keeping the Cameron and the Conservatives in minority territory with as low a winning seat margin as can be achieved by the wit o’ woman & man.
New Democracy Corps/GQR national and battleground state polls :
National
McCain 44% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 2%
Battleground States
McCain 43% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 1%
http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor090308fq8.pdf
I think the first problem the Tories will have is managing to get all the MP’s in the Commons. The rate Brown is going the SNP are going to be the official opposition. Labour on a four dozen MP’s and the LD’s can forget talk about yellow taxi’s: they will be on a bike!
Looks like the BBC is going to have to shelve the Yellow Taxi graphics - Mind you when Nick Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam they can have many
293 take a sample size of 400.
only 55% will vote thus obtaining a voting sample of 220.
say 20% of those 220 are for an independent, eg perot in 1992
that leaves only 176 voters for democrats or gop if they split evenly then you have a subset size of 88, which is near to statistically useless.
How many Labour Mps are there/ Looking it up I find 349 . What is the overwheming majority,?? is it 250, 260 even 270. if so Gordo isnt safe. spinning such words cuts no ice.
301 - true but beside the point (my point anyway).
But do you think that Obama’s a crappy candidate compared to Kerry, or anyone else?
he continues to be the outstanding politician of this era - Brown is in the record books after all: nobody can screw something up so quickly as Brown.
Interestingly enough - I think Brown is showing us what an Al Gore Presidency would have been like. They have similar traits actually!
No short term aid on fuel poverty, long term investment in fuel efficiency instead.
In other words, we have no cash to help you out of the ‘unique’ circumstances we have put you in but can offer you knitting needles and as much National Wool as you can make into mittens.
I expect those reporters who’s details were taken will next time find themselves doing 42 days research into the laces on jackboots. Labour should be very proud, they are destroying rights it took centuries to secure.
209 - Hubris has always been the cavalier curse. Just ask Prince Rupert.
210 - couple of misperceptions:
a. turnout in ND will hit 85%-90% of the registered voters (the group being polled I’m guessing, though could be of just likely voters, whose turnout will be (even after lie factor) 95%+
b. you are mixing up the validity of the subset to reflect it’s proper share of the entire sample population, with the validity of the demographics WITHIN each subset.
300.
Put it like this: the electorate are on a forced march away from NuLabour. Cameron can either join us or get left behind.
312. Personally I thought Kerry was better than Obama, although that cheesy “reporting for duty” speech he made was crass. Kerry looked like a President he had the *Big Hair* for it as well and indeed I wanted Kerry to win in 2004 over bush.
Ironically I now want McCain to win over Obama but in terms of the house and senate I would like to see Democratic control - we will have to see what happens but i still canot see Obaam winning it.
These Polls Jack keeps putting up are pointless - wait a couple of weeks and see how it settles down. I still doubt the Montana, North & south Dekotas will go for Obama either.
309 actually its:
312 - Oh no. I think Obama is proving a far superior candidate to Kerry (or Bush) but then I think the same about John McCain.
I think this year there is a positice choice to make. Last time it was between a moron and a dullard. Neither of these is possible to be attributed to either candidate
Dow now off by 3%
FTSE will be a bloodbath in the morning
Dow going down the pan after massive tax credit issue and slashing of interest rates.
Back in the high tax, high interest rate Uk… I should imagine the FTSE will be ok due to the stamp duty holiday tho…
320 i agree down to 5,000
And my unit trusts had nearly got back level!!!!
261. The real news is hidden behind New Labour/EU Theatrical Productions featuring Gordie Brown as British Prime Minister, Charlie Clarke as the Pretender, and Dave Miliband as the Slippery Fish. Guaranteed top billing in all major media outlets including blogs.
What is the real news?
Where can it be found?
The country’s banks are still unwilling to lend to each other. Mortgages are less and less available as banks scramble for cash.
They have borrowed about £200 billion from the BoE in 2 months, and maybe an equal amount from the ECB which has easier collateral requirements than the BoE. The same is happening across the EU, where hundreds of billions are Euros are being printed to bail out bankrupt governments and banks.
For a slither of the real news, see HERE
321 ‘I should imagine the FTSE will be ok due to the stamp duty holiday tho…’
LOL all about the stamp duty holiday!!!
324. And of course the investment in long term energy saving schemes..
318. I will not ask you to do Chris Huhnes loss in eastleigh!
Mind you If Simon Hughes gets booted out; at least he has a yellow taxi already! It will then be a straight choice between the Tube and the Taxi!
324 I think his post was a touch of sarcasm
321 - I thought interest rate cuts were supposed to boost stock markets?
309. Indeed, I think Labour are pretty delusional if they think the economy is the sole reason why they’re behind in the polls. It’s a reason, but it’s not the only one.
The problem has been gradual, losing little sections of the electorate bit by bit, chiselling away, until so many groups have said “we won’t ever vote Labour,” that there’s so way back.
The problem has not just been that there have been unpopular policies - there have been unpopular policies that have hit *all sorts of different people.* This is a lot more serious than what Major faced, because there was still a rock-solid Tory bedrock for him to fall back on, even in 1997. Those people still felt they had been looked after all the way from 1979 to 1997.
Who do Labour fall back on? The white working class? They have been p*ssed off by rising prices, mass immigration and policial correctness, there is *no* way they’re going to actively look to vote Labour at election time. A lot will sit on their hands, or flock to other parties, especially the BNP.
Gordon never had Tory England. He has not only lost Middle England, but also the Labour diehards in Scotland (buoyed by the SNP) and the white working class in the cities and the North. Such a disparate hatred is a horrible thing to have as a party under FPTP.
If Gordon stays, Labour continue to be as introspective and bicker-y as ever, and the economy and housing market continues to struggle, I could actually see Labour on circa 100 seats, and I mean that.
A majority of Tory Party activists support the creation of a separate English Parliament, but why are they keeping it quiet? Frightened that Labour might pinch the idea?
No this is not likely because Labour is Anglophobic through and through and hates England with so much passion that they would rather lose the next GE over the WLQ, Immigration and Europe than give my country any chance of self government. Death to the left and death to New Labour is only 18 months away. England will soon become Labour free for good.
322 Poor old Ave It - Gordon’s gorn and done your stack
320 - The Dow plunge was factored into today’s FTSE, which was doing OK until lunchtime when New York opened.
331 LOL its only £1000 - £250pm started 4 months ago!!!
All about getting the investment decisions right!!!
330 - No they don’t.
333 - Could be worse, could have started investing in October ‘07…
332 are you sure. How can you factor in a 344 point loss. It has to be worse than expected. I cannot see the FTSE opening in anything like positive territory.
New CBS News national poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 42%
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml
336 - FTSE was down 2.5% in the afternoon. Takes care of most of it.
329 The immigrant voter is supposed to become Labour’s new core voter. Expect mass immigration into Scotland and Wales to replace SNP/PC and continue mass immigration into England hoping to destroy it once and for all.
329. Absolutly! It’s the length in power, the failure to provide for the Labour voters (Let’s face facts Labour can never meet there expectations because a lot of people who vote Labour are reliant on the state or have poor earning potential and Labour can never make them *rich*), the cataclysmic alignment of recession and next election, the upsurge in Scottish nationalism and the erosion of Britishness that Brown has prosided over through Immigration. It has all unravelled and it means curtains for Labour.
So Labour under 100 seats is a distinct possibility. Not all the lost seats will go to the Tories or even SNP but the rump that is left of Labour will not rejovinate: Game over!
The left/ LD’s can then regroup around a “democratic” type party. they may even get a few defections from Tory MP’s like Brockle-bank fowler: It would be unkind to name names……………
One for Jack W.
CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied
McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml
333 then you will ‘benefit’ from Pound Cost Averaging - all about the FTSE when Ave It cashes in, not while he rides along in his investing mobile, throwing money at the stock market like a young Rockerfeller.
Re the Stamp Duty Holiday - Stamp Duty was interviewed at Heathrow where he slammed his case down and said ‘I am getting the f*** out of this sh!thole for a bit until things calm down…. shit a brick, I hope I am not going to be sitting next to those hard-pressed families. Where’s One-Off fuel payment? That bitch ain’t partying in the UK either’
330 - Always thought that Labour saw itself as the authentic England. The true heirs of the Anglo-Saxons. Whereas in their eyes were Norman blow-ins.
342 LOL
332 The Dow was only off 1.5% or so and the FTSE was in freefall when it ended for the day - I’d predict a sharp decline on opening and a slower decline after until lunchtime whereupon the Dows movement will determine the direction.
334 The Scots Tories may not, but amongst English Tories there is massive support for an English Parliament albeit within the UK. The English Democrats split earlier this year. The EDP support the creation of English Parliament within the UK, the breakaway Free England Party seeks full independence for England via the breakup of the UK.
For what it’s worth (not much) the term “stamp duty” always reminds Americans of “stamp tax” and thus the America revolution. Am sure if you polled on it in North Dakota or anywhere else in US it would have negative numbers, though few would have a clue what it ment (I’m not claiming that I do).
346 - Rubbish. The English don’t like paying for unnecessary layers of Govt.
343 mean that Labour say Tories as Normans
346 - sounds like Free Englanders are trying to storm the Bastille from within the prison walls!
350 - How many prisoners were released by the storming of the Bastille?
343 Old Labour was more pro-England and I liked Old Labour. Unfortunately New Labour is full of Anglophobic Scottish Lefties who hate England with passion, they’ve deliberately wrecked our education system, created an unfair devolution settlement that discriminates against the English. The problem with Labour was that it’s policies became attractive to foreigners such as the late Robert Maxwell who had hidden Anglophobic agendas. When helping Labour out in the 1990’s in Edinburgh I noticed something wrong with the Scottish section of the party - a deep rooted hatred of the English which made me uncomfortable. I saw with my own eyes that devolution was the start of ‘pay back time against the English’. I reported that this my local branch and they knew about it but did not care a jot about it, I later found that the Scottish Labour Party had control over much of the UK Labour Party and I realised I was working for an enemy to my country. I left the party in 2003 (not just about Iraq War) and tactically voted Tory in 2005 and UKIP in the 2004 Euro elections. I joined the English Democrats in 2006, but left them because of their refusal to back full English independence. I am about to join the Free England Party in due course.
351 - think it was 3 or maybe even less
346.. and yet Gordo is campaigning for a Football team GB in the Olympics. Trust him to swim against the tide. The Home nations want the Home internationals back. I havent yet forgiven the Jocks for tearing down the goalposts at Wembley!
Gordon Brown has confirmed that the government will not be giving consumers a one-off payment to help with rising fuel bills.
In a speech the prime minister said there would be no “short-term gimmicks or giveaways”, with the focus instead being on better energy efficiency.
WTF ? What about the short term gimmicks and giveaways to try and pretend to prop up the housing market ? He takes us for fools..
About 3, and one of those was an Aristo in for debt!!
348 That may be true Alex, but we are all p***ed off with the current devolution settlement. An English Parliament is coming in 2010, otherwise the nationalist parties will replace Labour.
Well it certainly wasn’t many and was not worth the effort certainly. I believed 6 was the number though Wikipedia suggests seven.
357 - Utter tosh
Goldsmith defending those who attacked a coal powered, power station.
Goldsmith, the former editor of The Ecologist magazine who resigned last year to advise the Tory party and become prospective parliamentary candidate for Richmond west, told the jury at Maidstone crown court that direct action could be justified. “Legalities aside, I suppose if a crime is intended to prevent much larger crimes, I think then a lot of people would consider that as justified,” he said.
Hmmm do you think Dave will defend that!
Someone who intends to be an MP, should be careful what they say.
341- Caveman- anything on Obama is value. I carry on helping myself.
You and Jan (Norway) are fine tipsters, but both appear to have lost the plot with McCain, and his GOP freakshow.
Labour attempted to solve the WLQ through Regional Assemblies. Their problem was threefold:
1. Not enough genuine devolution of power - ‘talking shop’ based.
2. To impose them on the current structure of Local Government - it simply added another layer of bureacracy for very little gain.
3. To impose them on European-defined ‘regions’ that pay scant regard to local identity.
… in my eyes, the English Parliament question is a bit of a confusing one. Because if there were to be devolution in this country like in Scotland, I’m not entirely sure I’d be against a Yorkshire Parliament. And I’m not sure the Cornish would be totally against a Cornish Parliament. And Greater Manchester… and London… and the West Country…
… England gets a bit muddied because there’s lots of seperate local identities beyond the mere ‘English’ one. So I’m not exactly sure what the solution *is*.
The Dail Mash and Ms Palin.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/ama-gonna-git-me-a-niggra%2c-says-palin–200809041227/
It’s in really bad taste.
341. Tied!. The GOP bounce is starting!
£/$ in freefall at the moment…
363. And people actually believe this S–T!
**** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
Is Sarah Palin The New Nuala ??
Ladies and Gentlemen - for your amusement and delectation, I present…….A New Thread!!
Cheers,
Morus
363 - That doesn’t really warrant discussion. So I won’t!
362 and
4 An attempt to emasculate England by breaking it up into penny packets.
It’s like giving devolution to Scotland… but saying there won’t be a Scottish parliament, but there will be one for Lothian, one for Strathclyde, one for the Borders and one for… er, the rest.
In any case, I live in a perfectly good region, it’s called Hampshire. It has a population of 1.7 million, which would make it the 39th biggest State of the Union were it to be in the US: plenty big enough to look after its own affairs.
Gonna watch Newsnight in a minute. Let’s see how much bias Emilie can frame in her interviews in St. Paul tonight.
A summary of the porkies Sarah statedin her speech at the DNC:
372. Link:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Conventions/Story?id=5726571&page=2
362 Labour politicians keep on telling us England does not exist. Regionalisation was the method they used to partition England up into little pieces so as to please the Scots, Welsh and Irish. Labour are anti-English as the current funding arrangements via the Barnett Formulae show. Many Liberal and Labour politicians have openly called for the destruction of England. Well I say death to New Labour and anglophobic supporters.
359 You are clearly an Anglophobic Labour supoorting bigot.
329 Matt1
Good analysis.