Has Populus thwarted Miliband’s chances?
September 5th, 2008
What’s the point of ousting Gord if Labour would do no better?
It seems an age ago, but it was only the end of July, that David Miliband produced his famous Guardian article that was seen as a challenge to Brown’s leadership. The Foreign Secretary denied it of course but the widespread assumption was that he was a laying down a marker for a future leadership challenge.
Since then, until today, there has been no proper polling evidence about the effect of such a leadership change on Labour’s election prospects.
I have argued that the best way of showing this is through the “named leader question” - when pollsters like ICM and Populus ask how people would vote with Brown/Miliband as Labour leader against Cameron’s Tories. As I was hoping Populus did ask the question in its latest survey and the figures are out this morning.
This is how Peter Riddell reports it in the Times: “The new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken at the weekend, suggests that David Miliband would not necessarily do any better than Mr Brown. When voters are asked to imagine that Mr Miliband replaces Mr Brown, Labour is shown on 26 per cent, against 27 per cent now. The Tories are on 46 per cent, against 43 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 16, against 18, per cent. These figures are comparable, with an adjustment for voters reluctant to declare their preferences and a reallocation of some don’t-knows, though the normal voting intention question does not mention leaders by name”
This form of polling is controversial but it did prove to be prescient about Brown before he took over.
There’s no point in Labour going through the agony of ousting Gordon and electing a new leader unless that would help their electoral prospects.
Mike Smithson
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It probably hasn’t helped but it doesn’t make the polling any more accurate. People don’t know much about Miliband so they can’t possibly predict how their opinions would change were he to become PM. And this kind of polling generally fails to give the benefit of the doubt to potential challengers.
It worked with Brown because people had a pretty good idea of what he was offering and (ultimately) they were proved right.
Curious that the LD figure actually drops more than the Labour one. Margin of error perhaps?
Well, I hate to say it, but I TOLD YOU SO - about twelve hours ago. The problem ain’t (just) Brown, it’s the Labour brand. Ero, no alternative leader would do any better.
As it’s 5 in the morning, your time, and no one’s watching, I will repost precisely what I said yesterday afternoon:
The most interesting thing about Charles Clarke’s flicking-of-Gordon-Brown’s-ears-and-then-running-away is that fatty Clarke himself admits that: there is no great “ideological” split between the Blairites and the Brownites and the Ballsies etc.
This is significant, he’s right. There is no great ideological debate within, or emanating from, the Labour party. AND THAT IS THE CRUX.
All the various leaders who might replace Brown simply offer more of the same: hapless boring authoritarian centrist sort-of-europhile tax-and-spend social democratic multiculti PC tweaking of the Thatcherite economic consensus.
Miliband or Straw, Balls or Burnham, they all believe the same tedious guff. And this guff is what has been rejected, quite fiercely, by the electorate.
People are bored of being lectured. They are bored at being regulated. They wanna pay LESS tax. They don’t like the EU. They think public spending has been wasted. They dislike multiculturalism. They dislike mass immigration. They loathe political correctness. They don’t want to be fined for overfilling their bins.
So it’s the entire New Labour project that has been rejected, which is why Labour are screwed, because none of them has the guts to admit this central problem - and fair enough, cause it would mean admitting the total failure of everything that they stand for.
Moreover, the only vaguely radical new ideas within Labour are telling the party to tax even more, integrate further into Europe, waste more public money - all policies diametrically opposed to the wishes of the voters.
There. That’s the key to it all. Sure Labour have a vastly unpopular leader, but they ALSO have vastly unpopular policies. Therefore dumping Brown is pointless, as it would only serve to reveal their deep underlying unpopularity as a party and a movement. Right now, Brown is actually a good psychological crutch for many of them - they can all blame poor Gordo, and pretend he’s the sole problem. But they’re in denial.
It ain’t just Brown. It’s Labour. They’re finished.
“… the figures are out this morning.”
Err, well… kind of. The headline figures might be out, but the datasheets have still not been published, several days after the client published the main voting intention news story. As I understand it, that is a blatant and serious breach of British Polling Council rules.
The client, The Times, says in today’s article “for more details see http://www.populus.co.uk“, but visitors to that website will come away disappointed. The latest available poll findings are from The Times poll published 27 July 2008.
Pull your socks up Populus!
From the BPC rule book:
“2.3. Public opinion polling organisations reporting results will endeavour to have print and broadcast media include the above items in their news stories and will in any event make a report containing these items together with full computer tables of the results available on their web site within 2 working days of the original release.”
The Times published the voting intention findings on Monday 1 September. This is now Friday 5 September. I am now beginning to tap my foot loudly, whistle tunelessly, and drum my fingers on the table in a most irritating fashion…..
Must. Resist. Temptation.
I agree with SeanT: Labour’s problem is that New Labour is past its sell-by date. This isn’t just a matter of it failing - it’s also a matter of it being completed.
More money for the public services? Done. They’ve put in as much as most people think they should. And then some…
Keep out the Tory extremists? Done. The Tories have unextremistified themselves. (This may turn out not to be true, but it looks like it’s true to the voters.)
Good management of the economy? That’s the only thing that’s still relevant, but unfortunately it’s not looking so great.
Seems to me that to the extent that there’s an opening for a new Labour leader, it’s for someone relatively young and inexperienced in the PLP who most of us have never heard of to come up with a fundamentally new programme. But I can’t think what that programme might be, or who in particular is going to come up with it. Much more likely that Brown staggers on until the election, which he will very probably lose. And that may still be Labour’s least-bad option.
Hang in there LS!!
‘Brown: Scotland to get more tax powers’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brown-Scotland-to-get-more.4461938.jp
‘Scotland may get more tax-raising powers as pressure mounts on Gordon Brown’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4678563.ece
‘A U-Turn on Devolution’
- Brown has opened the door to more tax-raising powers for Scotland — but he may have started a process which he can no longer control
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article4678194.ece
2. The Lib Dems always poll poorly in named-leader questions, probably because people assume that they’re being driven to choose a Prime Minister. Their number is not really worth looking at in such cases, although if it went up it might be a warning sign.
6. Well, glad we agree! Not that I can claim any huge insight, it’s pretty bleedin’ obvious.
What is remarkable is that it isn’t obvious to some in the Labour party: hence my definition of denial. They still think their policies and ideals are exciting to the average voter. Oh dear.
Yvette Cooper’s now notorious “attack” on “Cameronomics” in the Guardian last week was a classic example. With a sneer of disdain, she cleverly accused the Tories of “being in favour of tax cuts”!!
Cue Twilight Zone theme music, as the public shrinks in horror, from the idea of handing over less money to an incompetent and wasteful government. Tax cuts! They’re promising tax cuts I tell you! These Tory fiends will stop at nothing! Don’t let them anywhere near power, cause if you do…. you’ll be slightly better off!!
I mean, just… desperate. Labour haven’t noticed that tax cuts are now looking quite tasty to an awful lot of hard-pressed people, who have noticed the trillion pounds of tax-money Labour has so far spent… to produce a couple of nice bus stops near Swindon.
Likesay, they’re a party in denial.
Talking of paychological problems, just before I go for a swim, I was wondering about Brown’s apparent “euphoria” on the flight home from Beijing. This was reported in several newspapers, so it would seem to be true.
Euphoria? Euphoria?? Why? How about hypomania as a better definition? It seems to me the reports of unwarranted euphoria are a vital if not final piece of evidence in the psychodiagnosis of G Brown Esq.
He has some kind of psychological problem which involves long periods of depression and severe anxiety interspersed with periods of mania (or “euphoria”), typified by grandiose ideas and flights of fancy. Then there are the rages, the strange speech patterns, the paranoia, the stupors and delusions (”the polls had no affect on my decision”), the weight changes and facial tics.
Taking all these symptoms into account, as a lay person with some interest and knowledge of psychiatry, I think his problem may be more serious that simple cyclothymia or bipolarity. My honest guess is a mild schizoaffective disorder.
But I am sure pb’s more expert in the field, i.e. proper psychiatrists, might know better. Either way the guy ain’t right in the head.
Now off for my swim. SawadeeK
8. Mike, you could have just dropped the qualifier, ie: “The Lib Dems always poll poorly.”
The Lib Dems have had so many “warning signs” in recent polls that they must be at Code Red.
The “named-leader” question that really ought to (and clearly does) terrify Gordon Brown is this one:
“Thinking about the performances of Gordon
Brown as Prime Minister and Alex Salmond as
First Minister of Scotland… Which one do you think is doing a BETTER job?”
Gordon Brown 16%
Alex Salmond 52%
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/SNP_website.pdf
Miliband’s blast off for glory has hardly got beyond the launch pad. Like one of those films of early NASA rockets, it hovers in mid-air, unsure whether to head skywards, blow up or fall on to the launch tower.
But we can now be confident of proposing the following:
1 Milibandwagon = one thousandth of a bandwagon.
9. SeanT - “I was wondering about Brown’s apparent “euphoria” on the flight home from Beijing.”
Brown might have been “euphoric” in the aftermath of Beijing, but Chris Hoy was not a happy bunny when he got home and he realised the full, horrific extent to which he had been used by The Scotsman and Gordon Brown to further their neverendingly tedious ‘Britishness’ campaign:
‘Wheels of misfortune: Hoy attacks politicians just as Brown holds him up as best of British’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Wheels-of-misfortune–Hoy.4461921.jp
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2441250.0.Hoy_upset_over_the_cashing_in_on_his_success.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7599330.stm
‘Britons ‘doubt 2012 Games success”
“Sir Steve Redgrave is the most popular choice (26%) to light the Olympic torch in 2012, followed by Beijing hero Chris Hoy (13%), the Queen (11%) and Prince William (11%). Prince Charles only managed 2% of the vote.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/feedarticle/7775822
Miliband went off at half cock. So much so that I am inclined to accept his word that the article was intended not as a challenge to Brown but to Harman as heir apparent.
It’s the economy. Miliband knows it; Blairites know it too, which is why there is, as Charles Clarke told us yesterday, no coup planned.
It is when things pick up that the prize will look more attractive to Cabinet members; then that Brown will be in danger.
12 - lol talk about one eyed! He was clearly refeRring to the SNP (who started it with their “Scottish team” proposals) as much as Brown.
12. Bad spin even by your standards, Stuart, simply ignoring that Hoy was criticising Salmond as much as Brown, as the article you link to shows.
3,6. I agree. I don’t think it matters what Labour does, or who leads them. They’re set for a hammering. And like you, I find it bizarre that Hazel Blears should think tax reductions would be unpopular with the public.
230 from the last thread, why is Dion so unpopular with Canadians?
“There’s no point in Labour going through the agony of ousting Gordon and electing a new leader unless that would help their electoral prospects.”
ie. Labour are in a ‘Lose-Lose’ situation.
Che peccato! It could not possibly happen to a more deserving bunch.
Oh well, let’s look on the bright side of life: at least another government - north of the border - is in a ‘Win-Win’ situation, according to Professor James Mitchell of my alma mater the University of Strathclyde:
“Its a win-win situation for the SNP. If they don’t get this through – and I just don’t see how they can – they will be remembered for what they tried to do: getting rid of something unpopular. If they do get it through, they will have got rid of the council tax.”
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Salmond–takes–gamble.4461920.jp
Mmmmm….. perhaps this is how they can get this through:
‘Clegg clears way for Liberal Democrats to do deal with SNP on local income tax’
“[Nick Clegg said:] “That is precisely the issue on which we want to persuade the SNP to go back to their better instincts, so that we are once again in line with each other.”
Labour suggested yesterday that a “backroom deal” was in the offing.
Ms Sturgeon… said: “The SNP looks forward to having very constructive discussions with our friends in the Liberal Democrats under the new broom of Tavish Scott.”"
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Clegg-clears-way-for-Liberal.4461954.jp
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2441281.0.Clegg_backs_local_income_tax_during_Scottish_visit.php
17. Clegg lurching to the left to sign his Uk death warrant ?
I am rather puzzled at the way some people come on here and make detailed lists of the states that McCain and Obama are going to win, and the number of EC votes accordingly, quite often with great precision about numbers. Shurely it’s far too early to tell? With 2 months still to go, couldn’t the result be liable to change in response to “events” and end up as anything from 400ish/138ish to 138ish/400ish?
14, 15.
I suggest that you look very, very carefully at precisely what Chris Hoy said, ie. the bits in the direct quotation marks, not at what the Unionist journalists want you to think that he said.
Hoy’s words were clearly very carefully crafted, as he is up against insidious enemies in the Unionist Establishment, but no-one reading his words can doubt that he is furious at being so blatantly used by Gordon Brown, and at being, in his own words, misrepresented by the disgraceful behaviour of The Scotsman’s journalists: “I felt like I’d been misrepresented. I wasn’t being anti-Scottish.”
19-I know some of the more excitable posters here are predicting such unlikely states as MT, ND and SD as “too close to call” and all that, but it’s pie in the sky. At one point Alaska was touted as being marginal but I guess Palin put that one in the red box. After all, McCain was going to be far too busy defending his home state.
On the other hand that was back in the spring when ‘Ave It style Obama wins everything Obamamania was at its peak.
17 - Are the SNP going to back down on their insistence of no local variation? Coz i don’t see how the LibDems can possibly justify supporting a “national” local income tax.
20 - Not at all.
Quote: “”If there was a Scottish team in the Olympics, of course I’d want to be part of it, just like I am at the Commonwealth Games. But I felt the politicians were just trying to cash in on our success.“”
That can only be aimed at SNP politicians, especially when combined with his remarks about a Scottish team not being feasible unless they were prepared to put in place proper investment in training facilities etc. Ie. the SNP were raising it for political reasons, it was all talk. Nobody in Britain accused him of being “anti-Scottish”, which is what he was clearly most annoyed about. And the reason the accusation came about was because the SNP had made political proposals which he was forced to repudiate.
I have to say this kind of polling is waste of time in predicting whether Labour would do any better when the alternatives are simply not household names. Pretending otherwise is ridiculous.
I agree that Labour have just run out of steam. A party may have one chance to change it’s fortunes with a fresh leader but to hope to do it twice is too much. I agree that Miliband has messed up. You can’t be indecisive in this game as you may only get once. I also believe his motive was simply to make him heir apparent or a least above Harman in the betting.
16. As an Englishman living in Toronto for the last 3 years I suppose I should try to answer. Dion just doesn’t come across as a competent well rounded politician - too academic. And of course he’s French Canadian - worse than being Scottish in the UK.
20 - let me get this right. The “Unionist establishment” were accusing him of being “anti-Scottish”? How does that work?
John L @ 13 “Miliband went off at half cock.”
I hope that’s not an attempt at a racist joke!
23 - and of course he’s French Canadian - worse than being Scottish in the UK.
I think you mean British in Scotland.
That’s a lot
22. Err… it has been official Scottish National Party for many decades that Scotland should have an Olympic team. It is not news!
Of course the party is going to re-iterate its policy during an Olympics: it does this every two years, at every winter and summer games! Hoy was not referring to the SNP with the “cash in on our success” statement: it is crystal clear that this is directed at Gordon Brown’s disgraceful abuse of Hoy to further his pathetic ‘Britishness’ campaign. Hoy cannot be that explicit, for obvious reasons! Nothing is more vindictive than a spurned Yookaynian. Especially the grand master of the Tartan Mafia himself.
28. typo. It should read: “it has been official Scottish National Party policy for many decades”.
23. “And of course he’s French Canadian - worse than being Scottish in the UK”
I beg to differ.
Meanwhile I anticipate Labour polling to start a new downleg as the energy rebate fiasco dawns.
How not to manage expectations.
Milliband and Gordon are two sides of a toasted sandwich.
28: Stuart - Hoy’s references to “put your money where your mouth is” is surely directed at the SNP. The GB track cyclists did so well mainly due to the highly professional set up in Manchester. Hoy is a single minded sportsman so anything that gets in his way of being number one is bad in his eyes.
28. Stuart Dickson: it is crystal clear
…but only to a rabid ScotsNat.
Very many congratulations for the number of page downloads for August.
Just grabbing my bowler hat and pin striped suit and must dash off the “square mile” for yet more mayhem amd rumours in the city
re. 23. That was the kind of reaction we got repeatedly on the site during the Jan 2006 - May 2007 period on similar named leader polls. They proved themselves then and my view is they are good predictors now.
Remember also that similar polling was done during the Tory leadership contest in the final part of 2005 and this suggested that the party would get a big boost under Cameron. I think that that has been proved right as well.
Remember a duff poll is one where you don’t agree with the conclusions.
19. It makes more sense than listing headline country-wide polls given how the election works. You’re of course right when you say that it’s far too early to tell what the result will be in November, so the figures shouldn’t be looked at like that; more as how the land lies at the moment.
3. Interesting that one figure you didn’t mention was Alan Johnson, who I’ve thought of for a while as the person most likely to improve Labour’s fortunes as leader, if only because he (a) comes across as a decent bloke, (b) isn’t tied in to the New Labour clique and (c) should be able to appeal a bit more to the Labour core vote, which won’t be an election-winning strategy but might be a disaster-avoidance one.
Not satisfied with having set Scotland on the motorway to independence by signing (with Alistair Darling among others) the Claim of Right for Scotland in 1989, and steering the Scotland Act through the Westminster assembly in 1998, now Gordon Brown wants to press the accelerator pedal right down to the floor:
‘Brown ‘backs more Holyrood power”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7599295.stm
‘Scots parliament needs more say on budget, admits Prime Minister’
He said: “Devolution has worked but I do see one problem.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/09/05/scots-parliament-needs-more-say-on-budget-admits-prime-minister-86908-20724190/
You only see “one problem” with devolution Gordon? Are you absolutely sure about that? Just one? Mmmm…. look again Gordie, look again.
If anybody out there really, really cares about the continuing existence of the “United” Kingdom, then you had better extract Gordon Brown from the drivers seat. He is using his sat-nav to speed the shabby family 1.6 Cortina to the nearest divorce court. Watch out Gordie, there is black smoke pouring out of that exhaust pipe!
Yes Gordon, devolution has worked, like a total treat!!
And look how quickly we’ve stopped talking about John McCain, to the point where David Miliband and Chris Hoy are more interesting talking points.
Could you believe that we would have moved on so quickly after Obama’s speech? Not a chance. But this all adds to why Obama surely should be 80/90% chance to win rather than the 60/70% the betting odds are showing at present.
And on thread, had Miliband been in the middle of a campaign, this poll wouldn’t have helped, but Gordon seems to be safer than ever at the moment - even his critics are giving him till next Spring to take the elections hit. So status quo for a while yet.
35. That said, the poll results then didn’t stop Labour MPs electing Brown unopposed and won’t necessarily stop them from dumping him in favour of Miliband or AN Other in the future. People panicking don’t always (or even often) act logically and rationally.
35 - The difference is this. The polls involving “unknowns” are probably a good predictor of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a leader change. They are likely to be far less predictable of the medium term.
By contrast the polls of Gordon were very bad short term predictors. But did very well in the medium term. There is a very good reason for this - people thought they knew what they would get from Gordon, and what’s more he had been largely running domestic policy for the last ten years so there was little scope for change without a complete metamorphosis in both personality and political opinions.
35. Mike Smithson - “They proved themselves then and my view is they are good predictors now.”
Agreed.
To your great credit Mike, you were the first major blogger to highlight, repeadedly and powerfully during 2005-2007, the utter disaster that Labour was heading for if it annointed Brown. The Labour Party ignored your wise words and the crystal clear evidence of the polls. And I am delighted that they did!
37 - Trial separation would be best. The Scots would soon come to their senses. I wonder if they ever have self-awareness at how their bleating looks to the rest of the country.
We have a, er, Scottish Prime Minister, a, er, Scottish Chancellor, and a, er, Scottish Defence Minister. Guess what! If Scotland goes independent you’ll have to take them all back!
And speaking of Populus an extract from an article on Bloomberg.com
“Both the depth of the gloom, how bad things feel, and the scale of the cynicism, means there isn’t any prize in this at all,” said Andrew Cooper, director of pollster Populus Ltd., which conducts opinion polls for the Times newspaper. “It’s beyond the point of no return for Gordon Brown.”
42. No thanks. You can keep them!
On a general note about the Labour leadership, it’s telling that people are openly speculating about whether Miliband is or should be challenging Brown for the leadership, or should be resigning to force a challenge, or whether Brown should sack Darling and offer Miliband a deliberate hospital-pass of the Treasury (and if so whether Miliband should accept or not), or whether Brown should sack Miliband etc etc etc.
That such suggestions can be made and not laughed off the site shows how dysfunctional the government has become. Playing these sort of games, essentially for personal gain, while the economy goes down the pan and the international situation worsens will not be viewed well by the country. How is the government supposed to put together a coherent policy agenda if senior members are intriguing against each other? And if they can’t put such an agenda together, how can they ever deliver anything?
I think the problem is that Labour has simply got out of the habit of working collectively (which is quite ironic given the Labour Party’s roots), and power became so centralised around the leader under Blair that any dissention from the leader’s line was seen as disloyalty to the party, even if that disagreement was had behind closed doors, and this has got worse under Brown. Of course, under Blair there was the shadow-leadership of Brown, but that essentially operated in the same way with the two sides barely talking and avoiding the need to do so by agreeing on spheres of policy influence.
This has lead to the situation that influencing policy is seen only in the terms of getting the leader to change his mind, even at the cost of replacing him or another member of the government. That’s hardly a recipe for success.
23 - Whan I was over in Canada recently I heard Dion speak and was surprised at just how bad his English is. It’s significantly worse than Gilles Duceppes’s.
But despite his weakness it just doesn’t seem that the Conservatives can make the breakthrough in and around Toronto that they need to get a majority. I would think they’ll pick up quite a few seats in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc though
44 - you don’t get a choice. Labour is still the default party in Scotland, and all the SNP are doing is aiming to make them more so (by removing their own raison d’etre).
mirthios @ 25 — how is it a racist joke? I don’t understand what you are getting at. It certainly is not intended to be racist (or a joke for that matter).
44, ah ha! The way to victory over the SNP has become clear. All Brown has to do is release a statement saying if Scotland becomes indepdent he’ll live there permanently. With Jonah in your country, you’ll probably end up being conquered by the Isle of Man.
48. Circumcision.
Private Eye used to have an anti-Semitic gag about an Anglo-Jewish publishing company called Snipcock & Tweed.
The electorate haven’t got any great love for Cameron’s Conservatives either but at the moment Bullingdon Boy is the default position. The electorate just wants something different from the mess that is BROWN’S Labour Party.
He’s been a massive disappointment. The government are like a yacht in a storm without a tiller. Of course voters under those circumstances aren’t going to say they’ll vote Labour if they change their leader. But when Miliband does take over and gets a grip Labour will look like a different party and enough of a change for them to start being competitive again.
47. Alex - “Labour is still the default party in Scotland… “
We’ll see, we’ll see. However, I strongly suspect that that statement is no longer true.
When the Scottish National Party falls from electoral favour (as it must, because no political party can defy the law of gravity forever) then I think it is totally up for grabs who receives the biggest boost.
Clearly it is my hope, indeed expectation, that the SNP will not fall from electoral favour until after independence. Then many people, myself included, will be leaving the party to join our ‘natural’ political grouping (in my case a free-trade, free-market centre-right liberal party). Under such circumstances (ie. post-independence) it is prepopsterous to expect that Scotland will simply lapse to some “default” support of the humiliated Labour Party. Far more likely that new political groupings will dominate the new parliamentary landscape. If you want some clues as to how independent Scottish politics might look, cast a glance at Scandinavia or the Netherlands.
Even if we do not achieve independence at the 2010 referendum, and thus fall for electoral favour prior to independence (which will happen anyway, probably about 2020), then I would be very surprised if it was the Labour Party that prises the levers of power from our hands. They look finished to me, at least for a generation.
So, Brown, Darling and Browne are, and will be, thoroughly unwelcome. Both south and north of the border.
53. “But when Miliband does take over… “
Do you know something that we do not Roger?
Re. 3, Jon Cruddas isn’t a Europhile.
51. You being constantly wrong stopped being funny a long time ago.
50. Ah.
I fear I spend very little time contemplating the Foreign Secretary’s manhood.
40, 41. It sounds a bit too easy to me. If the named leader poll matches the immediate impact of the new leader say it’s a good short term predictor. If not say it’s a good medium term predictor!
However I agree the thesis sounds plausible: the more well known the candidate is the more durable the prediction. But surely all new leaders get some kind of a bounce?
I also agree that these polls are significant because they can impact whether Milibank will challenge (in addition to providing a rough guide to how well he might do if he wins).
I am doubtful that credit should be taken for ‘predicting’ Brown’s downfall from similar polls. Surely the mere fact the government is in its 3rd term and the economy are more reliable indicators?
Incidentally I am not particularly a Miliband fan and I am tempted to believe the poll is giving the right answer. I think it’s a very tough game to change and don’t think Miliband has was it takes to be ‘game-changer’. That doesn’t stop me from being sceptical of the methodology and interpretation put on the poll.
51. Is this just feeble satire? -
“when Miliband does take over and gets a grip Labour will look like a different party and enough of a change for them to start being competitive again.”
The alternative, that Roger actually believes this rhapsodic piffle, is too depressing to contemplate. I always knew Roger was a twerp, but I never thought he was actually very very stupid.
57, didn’t Labour fall into a serious deficit prior to the present economic woes?
@51:
Unfortunately, the polling evidence says (a) that’s not true, and (b) you smell.
@58:
He’s not stupid, Sean, he’s simply not yet completed all the stages of grief.
We’ve had denial Roger.
We’ve had anger Roger.
We’re now at bargaining Roger.
We still have depressive Roger and accepting Roger to go.
51
You second paragraph is an exact repeat of what you said 12 months ago when Brown was about to replace Blair.
Surely,even you realise by now that New Labour is a completely contaminated brand,that is exactly what these latest polls are confirming.
I’m not sure there’s any relevance, in a, ‘What If’ poll, you have to do it, then find out.
Changing leader is always a leap in the dark, but sometimes you have to, (standby it’s metaphor time) grasp the nettle, bite the bullet, an’ all that.
62 your & not you
62 Didn’t the polls say Exactly the same thing about the Tories before Cameron took over?
45. Bang on the money David. Unfortunately.
52 “Under such circumstances (ie. post-independence) it is prepopsterous to expect that Scotland will simply lapse to some “default” support of the humiliated Labour Party. Far more likely that new political groupings will dominate the new parliamentary landscape. If you want some clues as to how independent Scottish politics might look, cast a glance at Scandinavia or the Netherlands.”
But, this is Roger-esque.
After independence, the Scottish Labour Party will adapt to the new circumstances. They will accept independence, regroup and move on. Just as after devolution, the Scottish Tories accepted it, regrouped and moved on.
A post-indendent Scotland will be dominated by a centre-left party that will be the successor to the Scottish Labour Party. There will no doubt be the Dickson/Easterross center-right Party, but it will not be doing much governing.
The odds have shortened since yesterday on Paddy Power’s “Will Gordon win his seat?” market:
“Singles Only. Applies to Gordon Brown winning the constituency of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath in the next UK General Election. Bets void should he not stand in the next general election for that constituency.”
Yes 1/80 (from 1/100 yesterday)
No 16/1 (from 20/1 yesterday)
http://www.paddypower.com
Clearly yesterday’s generous 20/1 was too tempting for some punters.
Note: the SNP need a 21.8% swing to gain Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. The swing at Glasgow East was 22.5%
Picking up on our discussion about the, ‘Romans’ the other PM.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2674993/Britons-may-be-more-vulnerable-to-Aids-due-to-Roman-invasion.html
So thats what the Romans did for us!!
64. Pre-Cameron, the polls already said that the public supported Tory policies (low immigration, lower taxes, euroscepticism, etc etc): it was only when the voters were told these WERE Tory policies that the support ebbed.
A classic symptom of brand contamination. Tory = Bad. All Cameron needed to do was nice-ify the Tories and change the packaging, the underlying support for Conservative ideas was already there.
By contrast, the Labour brand is contaminated AND many of their policies are disliked, AND their reputation for economic competence is screwed AND their leadership is despised. Arguably, the left is now in a much WORSE position than Major in 97.
@66:
Nonsense. In an independent Scotland, the Scottish Tories and the SNP will form a centre right pact to keep the Lib-Lab centre left pact out of office.
So far, Scotland’s centre right administration has been an order of magnitude more competent than its previous centre left ones. I’m sure Scots have noticed and will remember it.
51. Roger, I wish you were right - and I say this as one of the few remaining Lab party members on the site - but I think the situation is now so bad that we need to adopt the core votes strategy that helped insured Tory survival during their darkest years, which is why David Herdson’s suggestion of Alan Johnstone is probably the best we can do for now - though personally I feel Miliband is far more able (we should hold him back - he’s still a potential PM, but not for another ten years or so).
68 I agree with much there, but I think it’s easy to exaggerate the drama of all this. Politics is ** usually ** pretty dull and no-one really predicted how quickly Cameron improved the Tory position. As such I think we just don’t know what a new leader could do for Labour. But it’s not a job anyone would envy.
BTW are you a Tory these days Sean? You used to be on the fence.
69 The SNP won’t exist. The rationale for the SNP is independence.
“So far, Scotland’s centre right administration has been an order of magnitude more competent than its previous centre left ones. I’m sure Scots have noticed and will remember it.”
Is the SNP center-right? I’d be interested in clarification on this.
In fact, whilst Stuart seems center-right, the other SNP posters on pb.com seem center-left or left (certainly frances is).
Of the 1,493,404 downloads this august I imagine all but 2 of them are from Labour haters. In the real world the figures aren’t as bad as that so the group thinking every time there’s a thread like this is understandable. In parts of the real world Cameron is just a smarmy version of IDS saved only by the shipwreck that is GB. Miliband COULD turn it round.
O/T I’m going for another total games bet this evening. 3/1 on Murray and Nadal playing ten games or more in the first set. In all three of their matches played on hardcourt they’ve gone to tiebreaks in set one. I’d make it a 6/4 shot that there’s 12 or 13 games. You can back that with stanjames.com and betdirect.com.
66. Gwynfa - “A post-indendent Scotland will be dominated by a centre-left party… “
Why?
I like to think that I know and understand Scots and Scotland pretty well. Although there are some superficial similarities to other small European countries besotted by social democracy (Sweden springs to mind), I think that you will find that the force of other intellectual traditions runs just as deep and strong in my country, if not deeper.
I suppose, like most democracies, we will ebb and flow from centre-left to centre-right; except that with unicameral PR, no one tradition is likely to ever gain a stranglehold on the legislature (à la Swedish Social Democrats).
67 Stuart - I can tell from that post you are not a gambler!
20/1 in to 16/1 is a tiny movement; they represent chances of approximately 5% and 6% respectively. Remember too that this is a very thin market and it would take no more than a few pounds to cause such a move.
I expect they were Scottish pounds too.
73
Make that 3.
8 Maybe the prospect of Miliband causes some otherwise LD voters to want to vote tactically against him? But, it’s within the margin of error so probably not relevant.
10 It is a commonly believed factoid that the LDs do better in real elections than in opinion polls, because they get publicity in election campaigns they don’t normally get. How true this is I’m not sure, I haven’t looked at the figures - but they certainly haven’t done too badly in May local elections in recent years. In the last GE they got 60+ seats with 22% of the vote. How many seats they get is less connected to their national share of the vote than how they can concentrate votes locally in seats that they hold or where they are currently a close second. On this analysis the LDs could lose seats to the Tories but gain from Labour at the next election. Of course I am sure they would like to be higher in the polls but I am not sure predictions of an electoral meltdown are accurate. The question is, what sort of figures do the LDs need to be polling now as a basis to build on during the next election campaign?
18 Maybe the LDs would stomach a flat rate local income tax on the basis of (a) it’s still better than Council Tax (b) once LIT has been introduced on a flat-rate national basis, it would provide a foundation for a proper one with local variation later and (c) maybe they think they can get some other concessions out of the SNP. They can tell the electorate “we think it’s got flaws, but on balance it’s better than Council Tax. In a future government of which the LDs are part we will seek to introduce local variation so that local councils can be accountable to the electorate for their spending”.
Not sure it’s a lurch to the left as such, it is certainly a tax simplification and should lead to an abolition of Council Tax Benefit as the way that Income Tax works is that poor people don’t pay much. However it will certainly hit people with big (six figure) salaries as according to Cllr Peter Cairns over on ukpollingreport, the maximum CT in scotland is currently about £2,500.
Anyway the idea that the LDs are some sort of halfway house between Tories and Labour is pretty much old hat, they are really now off at a tangent following the Cameroonian triangulation with NuLab. They sometimes make the right sort of libertarian and liberal-economic noises, but to me they still far too tarred with an old fashioned tax-and-spend PC left-liberal brush. Having said that I only really pay attention to their policies when there’s an election coming up and I might want to consider voting for them.
67 I’d have to think that whereas many Scottish Tories couldn’t normally sanction voting SNP, if the prize was unseating Gordon Brown, then their vote might very well get squeezed. There were 4,300 Tory votes last time around - 10% of the votes cast. That would go a long way towards helping throw him out.
Shoulder to the wheel, chaps…
Apropo of nothing….. I’m in the South of France at the moment and (if you’ll forgive the name drop) I remember having breakfast here with Boris Becker a few years ago and he leaned back with the sun on his face and said “The South of France would be the best place in the world to live if only you could replace the French people with English”. Well today it almost seems like he’s got his wish and I for one don’t like it
69. This is alternative universe stuff. Fact is, the SNP can afford to seem competent AND popular right now because - Scots look away - the Scottish state is subsidised by the UK central government. I don’t object to this: I’m a Unionist, I think rich urban southeast England SHOULD subsidise poorer rural parts of Britain - that’s what being a country is all about.
But if you took away that support from London, what would you have left in Scotland? Yes yes the oil - but that is dwindling (and prices are now falling). Whisky. Windpower. Banks. Hm.
Fact is something like 30% of working Scots are employed in the public sector. A genuinely independent centre-right government in a genuinely independent Scotland would have to get to grips with this, and hugely slash the public payroll. Tens of thousands of jobs would go. Hugely unpopular.
Meanwhile taxes would have to fall if Salmond really wanted to emulate Ireland - and there would be no EU largesse like Ireland enjoyed. State spending would collapse. Also hugely unpopular.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve no doubt that an independent Scotland would, in the end, balance the books and be fine; it might even prosper - and good luck to the Scots if that’s what they choose.
But to say the SNP is already a good government is like saying the Queen is a great ruler of Britain. The SNP don’t have to do much right now to look good, they can abolish tuition fees and blame all their problems on London. The Queen just has to sit on her throne and wear a sparkly hat.
Real power and real responsibility are very different.
O/T - This was so predictable.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7599639.stm
80. So stop annoying everyone in the Riviera with your presence, Roger - and leave.
83. Now then, seanT. At least he apologises for name-dropping.
9 Having had a brief bit of psychiatric training in the past I’d suggest personality disorder and being somewhere on the Asbergers/Autism spectrum.
THe Autism would account for the fixed thinking, and inability to relate to people. From what I remember personality disorder essentially meant someone who didn’t appear to have a treatable psychiatric disorder, but was just unlikeable!
73
‘Miliband COULD turn it around’
So why are the polls saying the exact opposite?
Those same polls that said Brown would be a disaster,when the named leader was mentioned?
73. I’m no.4!
84. lol. When have I ever name-dropped. I name-BOMB. I warn and leaflet everyone first, and then I drop a great big bunkerbuster of a famous name.
Roger sneaks in with a pathetic, “er, apropos of nothing” and then mentions some faded German tennis star.
Oy vay.
71. No, not a Tory. And never will be. I don’t think writers should join political parties - its bad for the artistic soul. And there’s lots in the Tory party I find objectionable. The mediocre thinking, the Cameron windmill crap, Michael Gove’s silly face.
But pretty obviously I’m a Thatcherite eurosceptic patriotic libertarian lefty-hating capitalist, and as you can guess, on those grounds I’m probably not going to vote for Labour or the Lib Dems.
73-Roger-do you live in a parallel universe!!!
80 Roger are you not adding to the English contingent just by being there?
This energy issue for Brown could well be the end point for him. It was Blair’s position on the Israeli bombing of Lebanon two years ago that tipped the moderate balance away from him. I really think Brown’s speech at the CBI (of all places) that there will be no short-term handouts to families to help them pay their bills is turning into a political disaster. Unless he makes some u-turn very quickly I think Brown will be finished off.
Currently, most people don’t even know who David Miliband is so it’s hardly surprising he polls low. If there were a leadership contest his media profile would rise and voters would get to see a lot more of him. Whether that would make them love him, loathe him, or remain indifferent, is another matter.
88 - is that British, English or Cornish patriotism Sean?
Brown is quite, quite, mad I’m afraid: “cautious optimism about the UK economy”, “no cheap gimmicks from me”.
He’s away with the fairies!
95. or Siamese?
Betfair - Next General Election - Overall Majority
Con maj 1.6
No overall maj 3.85
Lab maj 6.8
Any other party maj 160
97 - that seanT, really he’s just a p*ssycat!
95. White Pride*
*that was a joke
MOTHER’S PRIDE
This is OT, but it’s just something I thought of…
We’ve all heard of tactical voting, but is there any evidence of “tactical opinion poll responding”. So, for example “I would never contemplate voting Tory, I’m a hereditary Labour supporter. However this government is really shit and needs a rocket up its bum so I’ll tell the nice man from YouGov I’d vote Tory.”
101:
Are you saying you’re ashamed to be white?
I’m sorry Mike, but I fail to see how your statement “..it did prove to be prescient about Brown before he took over.” is true.
That the polling indicated Brown would do worse than Blair, and that he is now doing worse than Blair, is entirely down to events, and I do not accept that people predicted this in advance.
When Brown took over Labour’s poll ratings increased. This disproves the polling that was conducted beforehand. That Brown messed it all up later is neither here nor there - the point is that people did not accurately predict how they would feel about Brown taking over, because, at first, quite a lot of people liked the change.
There is a substantial body of psychological work [see for example references within Dan Gilbert's book "Stumbling on Happiness"] that demonstrates people are rubbish at predicting how they will feel about an event.
Furthermore, even if we were to accept that the polling had any validity, it was not properly controlled on most occasions. As you quote above: “..though the normal voting intention question does not mention leaders by name”
The comparison is therefore completely bogus. We do not know whether Labour’s poll rating would fall below 20% were people reminded that Brown is in charge of Labour and Cameron in charge of the Tories. Indeed, on the one occasion I recall where this comparison was done fairly, with Blair/Cameron compared to Brown/Cameron, then Brown did poll better than Blair, and Blair polled worse than the headline voting intention figures.
102 - The only Pride I’m interested in comes in a pint glass!
We’ve debated on here about GB always backing away from a fight he might lose. Well if the writing really is on the wall might he walk away from both the premiership and his parliamentary seat if it looks likely that he might suffer the ultimate humiliation in 2010.
Imagine the breathless hush as the BBC announcer says and now we go up to Kircaldy. The PM is looking very glum and it very much looks like the SNP have carried this off…..
I think the country would run out of champagne - perhaps we should all get a case in.
107 - The PM would be looking glum even if the impossible happened and Labour won every seat they contested!
107 I love it when you talk dirty!
Just seen the back end of J McCain’s speech on Sky News - definitely a barnstorming finish and it played well in the hall
Obviously the great imponderable is how well it will play with the wider country
107. “I think the country would run out of champagne - perhaps we should all get a case in.”
The French will be pleased!
[107] - Brown has always been able to back away from a fight he might lose by avoiding the decision to fight. He didn’t call the election a year ago, he didn’t contest either the 1992 or 1994 leadership elections, etc. To resign would require an active choice which is unlikely.
Also, he’s now surrounded by acolytes who are reliant for their position on him remaining in place. They will have some effect in persuading him to stay put.
107
No you are wrong.
If every opinion poll said Gordon would lose, he would ignore it. His mental amkeup precludes him ever thinking he has failed. He is NEVER wrong - in his mind.
He cannot accept advice he disagrees with,
110. I listened to the McCain last night and the clips used on TV sound much better than the speech itself. I don’t know what proportion will see clips rather than watch the whole thing, but I don’t think it’ll be as bad for McCain as I thought in the wee early hours.
Some insight into Brown’s housing proposals:
“Britain’s plan to cut taxes and offer incentives to first-time buyers is sure to fail and smells a bit of Ponzi….the plan will in effect suck money from those not on the housing ladder or at its bottom to support those further up, as well, significantly, as the banks who’ve loaned them money…..far better to acknowledge that British housing prices are much too high and likely to fall substantially from here, and to try to do what little can be done to soften the side effects.
Attempting to keep the unstable enterprise afloat by luring new buyers is a strategy headed for failure, and where it succeeds is bound to be a disaster for any unfortunate buyer who takes it up.
“Encouraging first-time buyers to enter an over-valued and sharply falling market seems like an odd thing for a government to be doing,” said Ed Stansfield, a London-based economist at Capital Economics……”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/stocksNews/idUKARO52721420080905
Keep it up Roger. You are as out of touch with opinion as Gordon Brown. From my perspective I have always despised Labour (being a working man) but under Tony Blair my worry was I had forgotten for a while why I despised them. Then as the lies over Iraq, the economy and immigration began to unravel I remembered why. Gordon Brown is the icing on the cake, a man from a country I have never been to ruining the medium term future of my children. I believe that if I was hoodwinked for a while by Labour as to their core beliefs (rob the workers to pay the lazy and incompetent) so must have been millions of swing voters. Happily the vision has now cleared and Labour is again a laughing stock, unfortunately one with power to further ruin the economy before they leave. In 1997 I had just brought my first house and was gaining promotions at a rapid place, living in a fairly safe working class area. Now I see my house price plummeting, face a struggle to find work (although I have never been unemployed / claimed benefits), have drug dealers outside my house in a midle class area and fear for the future of my children. If they excel academically they will be saddled with debt from tuition fees, if they do not they will be branded failures by one of the hundreds of irrelevant and biased benchmarks invented by the government. Please lets get this shower out and get the country back on track.
113 - “Infamy, infamy … “
The more I read about it, the more convinced I am that the Down’s Syndrome baby is Bristol’s. And yes, this *is* important.
This is taken from the comments on http://bristolpalinpregnant.com
Just got off the phone w/ a dude who went to high school w/ Bristol. She was smoking meth and boozing while in school. That’s where the fetal alcohol syndrome did it’s damage. She dropped out for 5 months claiming mono?? Not! Sarah Palin in a video 2/20/08 is walking very fast uphill at 7 months pregnant?? I dont think so.. my wife could barely move at 7 months, much less speed walk.. when you compare the putatitve mom at 7 months vs her real pregnancy picks, in the real thing she blows up like a balloon.. looks like 35-45 lbs additional. Not in the pictures from last spring.
Bristol is holding the kid like a mom.. Sarah had to claim it as hers, [MODERATED]
You can get pregnant w/in 1 month of delivery, and the daughter is not 5 months preg, but more like 2.5 or so. But now the dad can marry her, so shot gun wedding it is.
In the pictures on the gov.s page, Bristol has the belly bulge and the ‘woe is me’ look all over…
[MODERATED]
[MODERATED] It is also suggested that if the baby was not “hers”, then Sarah Palin’s medical insurance wouldn’t cover the huge costs to come. That’s fraud on a massive scale.
How can anyone seriously believe that Sarah Palin’s waters broke (while she was in Texas), she then waited around for a few hours and made a 30 minute speech, took a plane home (a long trip, with a change of plane in Seattle), gave birth and then was back at work 3 days later. This is the official story.
And Americans are being asked to vote for Sarah Palin to be their Vice President. It is stunning, simply stunning.
I don’t follow US politics closely but what I’ve seen of Palin so far is pretty impressive. She comes across as quite a powerful politician who can suck in many more votes for McCain, so it’s no wonder that Obama’s fan club are frantically trying to smear her reputation
116 Quite interesting seeing what forms us.
Could never be a Tory. Seen how corrupt/useless they are in local government. Always forming into little cliques that fight and acheive nothing.
Could never be a Thatcherite. We have social obligations beyond family.
118 - I am not a medical expert but when my sisters were born my mothers waters broke a month before labour began! All women are different, some blow up like a balloon during pregnancy others don’t. Some carry more water, others don’t. It is simply malicious to keep peddling rumours and ignorant speculation.
118. I’m genuinely glad we don’t sink to this level in British politics.
118. There are plenty of other sites for this kind of trash.
61 Martin Coxall. Surely having to go through all those stages before coming to a conclusion suggests at least some degree of stupidity on Roger’s part? You really are being much too kind to him - if you can point to one sensible post by him in the last two years, I shall be very surprised.
116, 120 - and Nu lab have been following authoritarian, centralist policies during this period.
118 - “In the pictures on the gov.s page, Bristol has the belly bulge and the ‘woe is me’ look all over…”
…because it would make sense to disguise the pregnancy by including her while pregnant in a photo wouldn’t it?
122 - agreed.
120 I agree we do have social obligations beyond family, however I believe that these should be met once family obligations have been covered. My problem is that Labour have reduced me back to the level of struggling to cover basic needs, not allowing space in my life to cover my wider obligations. I think most of the country, like me, has retreated to survival mode until 2010.
122. What, so the rumours about Brown sitting naked on a rocking horse wearing a nappy are.. high-minded?
lol
American politics is no dirtier or cleaner than ours. It’s just more expensive.
122/…….yet
94. If Miliband is largely unknown and Labour would poll no better under him than under Brown, doesn’t that suggest that either (a) public opinion of Brown is neutral, (b) the problem is the common factor (Labour), or (c) the assumptions are incorrect?
As (a) is definately incorrect - the leader rating scores are much worse for Brown than ‘neutral’ (and IIRC, they’re also worse than Miliband’s score, though I stand to be corrected on that), then that leaves (b) and (c).
[121] - Exactly right. I moved house when my daughter’s mother was seven month’s pregnant, and it wouldn’t have been easy if she could barely walk.. what ridiculous hyperbole.
Milliband would not turn it around, not least because he’s a complete unknown. The polls show the public have little more confidence in him than they do in Gordon Brown and the government itself has become disliked, whatever the leader, although Brown is a main reason for the dislike. Also, labour supporters such as roger are blinded by their hatred of Cameron to the extent of massive underestimating his appeal and ability.
Morning all, you seem to have been getting a bit confused in the early postings.
How can a British person be unpopular in Scotland when everyone in Scotland is British!
How can a Scottish person be unpopular in Britain when Scotland is part of Britain!
If you really mean England when you say Britain then again absolute rot. The majority of migrants into the Scottish Highlands over the past 25 years has been early retiring English people, mostly selling up when house prices were high in the earlier peak conditions but much lower up here. The overwhelming majority of them have contributed as greatly to our economy and community life as the tens of thousands of mainly Glasgwegians did in the 1960s and 1970s when they created what is essentially modern day Corby and places like that, a seat I am delighted to say should return true blue at the GE.
Forget this nonsense of the Scots hating the English, we don’t. Yes we hate the BBC mentioning on a daily basis the only football match of any importance England won which is now 2 generations ago and we loathe the fact they cannot quite get their media heads round the fact that few aspects of daily life dictated by London apply beyond Hadrian’s wall. However that doesn’t mean the Scots hate the English, far from it as most of us are as much English as Scottish and indeed few modern day Scots are much less than 75% Irish.
As for the fate of the SNP, post Independence, I would expect a major realignment of Scottish politics with people like Stuart Dickson, Chris D and me all members/supporters of the centre-right party which in a good year would run the country and in a bad year would be in opposition with probably the successors to the Libdems or the Greens being the small party virtually permanently in Government, similar to the 3rd party in Ireland which sometimes supports FF and at other time FG.
By my reckoning there are nearly as many Scots who sit as MPs for English constituencies as there are who sit for the 59 Scottish ones. Eleanor Laing, Liam Fox and Michael Ancrum on the Tory side and Jim Fitzpatrick, Ian Gibson and the wee fat guy with glasses who used to be Labour chairman and has had serious health problems on the Labour side not forgetting one A.C.L. Blair Esq who still pretends to be English.
Having seen snippets of the Tractorman’s speech last night to the Scottish CBI, as Stuart suggests up list, Brown was hinting at more fiscal powers to Holyrood but this morning No 10 has said such comments were taken out of context and the usual crap i.e. Gordon didnt say what he said.
Other than that his clip on bow tie looked very ill-fitting, he looked uncomfortable wearing it and his speech was total bilge. Add to that he announced he doesn’t do single payment gimmicks! When I heard that I almost fell out of bed in shock. Enough to say Labour MPs up in arms because no fuel payments for “hard working families” etc etc.
This Government just can’t read the instructions. When the hole is already deep enough to swallow you up entirely, why waste any more energy digging deeper?
118 The benefit of Palin coming from small town America is that she can appeal to that near 50% of the US population that lives in small towns.
The problem with coming from small town America is that everybody knows your grubby little “secrets”. Palin has made herself so many bitter enemies on her way up that every little bit of rubbish is going to be trotted out as an “exclusive”. But there are bigger questions she should be required to answer. And as a result she is not going to be able to operate as an effective VP candidate - her only outings are going to be where she can avoid any questions being asked of her - that was confirmed by the McCain campaign last night.
So - look at the nice shiny motor, but don’t expect to look under the hood - still less take it for a lest drive!
Interesting that 37 million Americans watched the Palin speech.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/palin_just_11_million_fewer_vi.html
That’s 1.1 million fewer than watched Obama, but massive for a vice-presidential acceptance speech.
As a Brit with no vote, and who could happily live with Obama or McCain in the White House, the most fascinating thing is the media phenomenon around Palin. She’s overshadowed McCain of course, but also starved the Obama machine of publicity.
Sarah Palin has become THE story of the election. Even the pop gossip site popb*tch is running a story about how Britney Spears’ sister is sending messages of support to Bristol Palin.
Whether its Republicans lauding her as the new Margaret Thatcher, or her enemies spreading almost certainly untrue smear stories about her to derail her (118 is a particularly sick example of this), it’s all about Sarah. How will that show up in the post-convention polls? I don’t know but I am fascinated to find out….
I also think it’s totally fair to speculate about Sarah Palin’s children, and their children, or the children that might be her children etc etc, seeing as she is so fiercely anti-abortion, pro-family values herself.
If you stand on that super-moral, Christian right ticket, then you can expect to be scrutinized for any deviance from that moral code.
And I speak as someone who likes and admires what little I have seen of Mrs Palin. Moreover, if this tittle-tattle is what it appears to be - just nasty tittle tattle - then it will soon disappear as it embarrasses those who express it more than anyone else. Attempting to suppress it is silly.
Same with Michelle Obama and “whiteygate”.
If Brown goes then immediately the country will feel a brighter place. His persona is casting a cloud over us all.
The public don’t know Miliband or what he’d do once in office, so I don’t see why Labour’s fortunes shouldn’t improve hugely if he took over.
120 ‘Could never be a Thatcherite. We have social obligations beyond family.’
Glad you think so. So does Lady Thatcher:
“There is no such thing as society. There is living tapestry of men and women and people and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate.”
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/speeches/displaydocument.asp?docid=106689
i.e. she was saying the exact opposite of what the Left accused her of saying.
I’m curious — did the periods Gabble was posting here coincide with Roger’s absences? I’m curious *and* suspicious.
And people, stop saying that the NuLab project is over and exhausted! It won’t be over until we’re all carrying ID cards and the police have all our DNA — don’t kid yourselves otherwise.
Here’s the confirmation that Palin is going to be wrapped in cotton wool during the remainder of the campaign - no prying allowed by nasty, nasty journalists….
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09/no_questions_please_were.html
I’ve been trying to get onto the National Enquirer website, it seems to be down, for some reason.
A rhetorical question for PBers out there…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7599402.stm
If you were having to break a ‘Times are hard, we have to tighten our belts, and sorry, no, there won’t be a handout to help with your fuel bills..’, would you really choose a ‘black tie dinner’ event as the place to make this announcement ??
He may be a bright guy, but when it comes to the media, and people’s feelings, Brown just hasn’t got a clue…
Tony Blair might have been a phony mendacious fraud, but at least he knew how to get a message across to the electorate, even if it was a pile of, er, ‘horse-feathers’..
[136] - “Moreover, if this tittle-tattle is what it appears to be - just nasty tittle tattle - then it will soon disappear as it embarrasses those who express it more than anyone else. Attempting to suppress it is silly.”
You would think so, but unfortunately these sorts of things have a life on their own on the internet, and it gets very boring to have people still go on about “controlled demolition” on 9/11 or “OMG it was cloudy, global warming is rubbish”. The tittle-tattle just doesn’t go away
138 Sorry I prefer something stronger than the optional individualist, charity proposed by Thatcher here. We all benefit by the fact that not only the generous contribute.
142. At least he didn’t wear the shabby polytechnic lecturer styel suit he’s donned for such occasions in the past.
[140] - See, I think that’s the first mistake McCain has made. It looks weak. Palin should be able to handle these interviews, and face people down. She’s hardly going to be able to run away from dealing with Russian negotiators, or whatever.
There’s a large potential upside to her having the courage to face this down, but they’re hiding her instead.
On Mike’s question, I think the point is slightly mis-stated. The issue is not simply whether Miliband might or might not be more popular than Brown. The paralysing factors for would-be Labour plotters are:
(a) Because there is no clearly-popular alternative to Brown, they cannot be confident that a leadership change would improve things, and they know that a coup would in itself be damaging;
(b) Given the process for electing a new leader, it’s very hard for them to stitch it up in advance by meeting in smoke-free rooms; 2/3 of the electoral college are activists and union members, which makes the outcome unpredictable;
(c) The best candidates might prefer to wait until after the election defeat.
The stuff in the US election is getting really sick.
142 Vector. Was GB really wearing a black tie? I thought his “priciples” only allowed hom to wear a lounge suit, to hell with good manners.
I saw Alistair Campbell on newsnight last night and realised how things could be worse for labour, he could still be in charge of the spin department. His tactics were basically ‘bash the tories, talk about our record’ or basically what has failed so spectacularly so far. When he had the media by the scruff of the neck he could dictate the stories, but when he lost that power they ripped him to shreds.
143. Er, global warming quite possibly IS rubbish, you funny little man.
See here:
http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/2008/09/warming-down.html
(with thanks to whoeever first linked me).
Palin, her family and various babies: does anyone really care? From this distance it looks like the only people getting excited are people who would never vote for her anyway.
Whose vote changed over Whitewater, or Bush’s dodgy business deals? Did anyone stop voting Labour when Tony Blair wouldn’t say whether Leo got MMR or single vaccine shots? Is Cameron’s “use” putting anyone off?
In this case the partisan gossip mongers are even more boneheaded since even if they are right, Palin’s supporters will see her actions as noble. Decades ago, the same thing might have happened here, and more recently in Ireland.
In any event, Betfair has already paid out on Palin!
150
Campbell looked a shadow of his former self. It was embarrassing to watch.
149 - he’s even been spotted in White Tie recently. Glad to see he stuck to his principles.
http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m3/nov2007/4/5/3811B417-ED17-F3C1-122E888B0A32EA09.jpg
144 Jonathan - My point was to correct the widespread lie that by ‘There is no such thing as society’ Lady Thatcher meant ‘every man for himself and you have no social obligations’, when in fact it is clear that she was saying precisely the opposite - that you DO have social obligations and you can’t just sub-contract these to something abstract called ’society’, and do nothing personally to fulfil those obligations. Even today, this mis-representation is still frequently made, despite the full text being available on the internet for anyone to read.
Poor ‘ol Mickey Fab, can u get high on that stuff?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1052664/Tory-MP-forced-eat-handfuls-coffee-whitener-gun-wielding-Columbian-soldiers-thought-smuggling-cocaine.html
Didn’t seem to affect the lustre of the hair though!!
153. He’s a depressive recovering alcoholic, isn’t he?
If you read his diaries (which are compelling, insightful and very sharp - whatever you think of the man himself) you are left with the distinct impression of a very unhappy bloke. A guy with serious demons, who only managed to keep a lid on things, during the Blair years, through manic overwork and paranoid hatred of the Tories.
(Externalised death instinct, I think Freud might call it)
Anyway I imagine now he hasn’t got the necessary 24/7 distractions of that very demanding job, he must be finding it even harder to cope with just being Alistair Campbell, on his own. Without a beer.
155 She was very foolish - she undermined herself. There clearly is something called society and it is not incompatable with personal responsibility.
What was it Cameron said recently — “There *is* such a thing as society, it’s just not the same thing as the state.”
155 - Exactly. I believe that “society” cannot fix the problems on my personal agenda at the moment - crime, money and education for my children. However, I can fix some of the problems (reporting crime when I see it, working harder and assisting with my childrens school activities) which in turn will have a knock on effect on society as a whole. I believe this is fundamentally why I am a Tory - I expect to get back from society what I put in, I don’t expect to sit back, do nothing and have it handed to me on a plate like Roger et al.
Betfair, after sending someone out for the early edition of the Evening Standard, has belatedly suspended the market on McCain as GOP nominee. Settlement must be soon then it’s off to Sainsbury’s for food at 8.3 per cent up this year.
Food up 8.3 per cent; meat and fish 23 per cent.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/7597703.stm
That’s why lower paid people are feeling the pinch, and why Brown and Labour are unpopular. MPs, journos and others on well above average earnings haven’t noticed so imagine it must all be due to Brown’s lamentable presentation skills.
157
I would imagine after all that time at No 10 he is suffering from the eqivalent of City dealer burnout…in any event ” never go back”
159. A good bon mot, but he sets up a straw man. Hardly any Liberals or Labourites believe that society is the same thing as the state.
Incidentally, Thatcher’s argument against the concept of “society” was first made by Angus Maude in the late 60s.
158. That quotation is a good way of dividing conservatives like me from socialists/socdems like you Jonathan. To me, you appear to wilfully misinterpret her words. But, clearly to you, her words mean what you take them to mean. I don’t mean any of that as an insult at all, just that the same words can mean very different things to people of similar intelligence but different instincts.
On another, betting related topic. I was interested to read Chris Huhne’s analysis of the LDs’ seats position here:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/chris-huhne-writes-dont-underestimate-the-lib-dems-3276.html
Interesting psephologically, but also begs the question of why he is setting out the inner workings of the LD HQ polling analysis in the run up to the Party Conference. Is he trying to head off a revolt from those who don’t like the switch to targeting Labour, rather than Conservative, seats?
162 He did say repeatedly “I don’t want to do my old job”. His appearance, like Browns, sums up Labour - tired, washed out and exposed.
153. He looked like a shadow, but also out of touch. The great political game has moved on, but his tactics have stayed the same, like Brown.
So much for Gordon’s booming economy -
Bentley working a three day week-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7599681.stm
161
My weekly treat of mini mars bars (no sadly no longer possible),… pack of 20, went up lat week in Tesco from 1.98 to 2.88 and thats a 45% increase. I dont believe 8.3% . I think its more like 15% for my weekly shop.
Isn’t it remarkable that sad Labour losers still obsess about Margaret Thatcher nearly 20 years after she left office? I suppose it’s a tribute to part the old gal played in smashing world socialism, though
164. The reason left-wingers take Thatcher’s comment at face value is that her conduct in office fitted so comfortably with the idea that society does not exist.
161. *sigh* Again, NO. NO NO NO.
Brown and Labour started tanking quite a while back: the moment he said “hand on heart the opinion polls had no affect on my decision to call off the election”.
That was the moment, the fulcrum, the pivot on which British political sentiment has turned. Coz everyone thought - “hold on, this is the guy who is meant to be the honest version of Blair, the dour but reliable Scot, the man with the moral compass, and he’s standing there brazenly lying through his teeth. F*** that.”
Ever since then Labour have been in swift polling decline, likewise their leader. You would expect this after three terms anyway. Everyone’s sick and tired of Labour, bored of their tedious spin and lies, etc etc. And so The Big Brown Lie gave everyone an excuse to say: I’ve had enough of these twats.
Unfortunately for Labour, this natural decline has COINCIDED with a very sharp downturn in the economy, which has reinforced the sense of a government mired in hapless incompetence. So what was looking like a bad election result, next time we all vote, might now be a catastrophic election result - for Labour.
So, yes, the looming recession is bad news for Brown, but the bad news began before the recession was even expected.
Put it another way: it’s not just the economy, stupid.
168 You can’t necessarily generalise from one item: Tesco may have decided that it will charge more for treats so it can be competitive on staples.
But even the price of bread has shot up - now over £1 for a “proper” small loaf and up to £1.50 for a large one (which in practice I waste as I don’t eat it all before it starts to go stale or mouldy). I’ve started using my breadmaker again - you can get 3 lb of flour for 90p and that makes 2 large loaves or 3 medium ones which means I don’t waste any.
Easterross, we’ve grown used to seeing Goldie and Salmond licking the cream off each other’s whiskers – metaphorically speaking, i hope. And I appreciate that Tory support has been on an issue by issue basis. In the first year there was a great deal of common ground: extra police and a cut in the business rate. Will this be more difficult now as the policy on replacing the council tax by a local income tax is unlikely to be well received by Goldie, nor is the proposal to ban the sale of alcohol to anyone under 21. Will the LibDems become the partner of choice for the SNP in 2008/9 as the new agenda seems more palatable to them.
164 - Thanks for the Chris Huhne link. It is truly extraordinary - he sounds almost as deluded as Brown:
“… make that conventional assumption that the Tories win an overall majority. They would have achieved a 6.9 per cent swing from Labour, nearly half as large again as the biggest post-war swing to the Conservatives of 5.3 per cent. Such a big swing seems unlikely given that 1979 saw the winter of discontent, rubbish in the streets, and corpses unburied.”
If the LibDems are doing their planning on the basis that the swing is unlikely to be more than 6.9%, then they are in big trouble.
174. Perhaps he just wants to convince himself he will hold his own seat.
“Isn’t it remarkable that sad Labour losers still obsess about Margaret Thatcher nearly 20 years after she left office?”
And isn’t it even more remarkable that one sad Labour loser in particular would wine and dine her round at 10 Downing Street?
172
If you go into my Tesco, the first aisle is full of promotions… buy one get one free, none of which I ever buy as they never seem to be anything I would want. Other prices are put up to pay for this largesse. There is no such thing as a free lunch. I still think my weekly shop is about 15% up and I buy pretty much the same stuff…
BOGOFs are rubbish it’s more “buy one throw one away when it goes off”.
This is odd. I’ve made two posts about Margaret Thatcher and society which have vanished into the ether (I thought I had cocked the first one up which is why I posted a second time). Then I thought there was a delay on the site, guessing that it was being moderated due to Palin comments. But my throwaway comments about Tesco’s are going straight up. What’s going on?
OK, I’m going to make a bid for the MOST OFFTOPIC COMMENT EVER SEEN ON PB.COM
I was listening to Frank Sinatra’s immortal “Come Fly With Me” on my iTouch when I was by the pool earlier on. And then I realised that these famous lyrics:
Come fly with me, we’ll float down to Peru
In llama-land there’s a one man band
and he’ll toot his flute for you
Are actually extremely sexually suggestive. In fact, they constitute an invitation to the (presumably) female listener, to “float down” and fellate the singer’s “one man band” - until he “toots his flute”.
Have I won the award for the most OFF topic comment EVER?
178: Buy a fridge!!!
If you keep your eyes open for offers like this and reduced stuff, you can save a lot.
But prices are still headed up big time. And improted stuff will go up even faster no the ounce, no, i mean pound has tanked.
168 172
Tesco are expensive. Morrisons are cheaper. And Aldi are 2% cheaper than both.
Tesco are exploiting inflation to increase margins as are other supermarkets.
Wholesale food and commodity prices are falling.
2% should read 25%..
DOh
180: Are you drunk?! I’d be worried if I were you, the irony of you going on about Brown’s state of mind
Shurely the issue is that there is no obvious ‘big beast’ to take over from Brown - Miliband’s poll ratings (and pressumably others like Harman, Straw and Johnson have done the same) simply reflect the fact that any of them will simply be seen as more of the same rather than a change. The problem for Labour MPs is that they can work this out too and unless someone’s coming along with a new agenda (apology for Iraq, drop ID cards, etc) and seen as not cyncial or old Labour then changing leader won’t work.
see 156
And try to fit Colombia in, instead of Peru!!
186 for 180
184. lol. No, not drunk. Stone cold sober. It’s only 5pm here, not quite tiffintime.
I’m trying to piece together the next plot for the next Tom Knox thriller. It’s very difficult work, much harder than the actual writing, and it makes my mind go off at, erm, odd tangents.
I’ll be alright again soon. I hope.
181 Believe it or not I’ve got a fridge. And it doesn’t help, stuff still goes off. Rather than BOGOF I’d rather buy the normal amount for 60% of the normal price. That’s better for the supermarket, better for me - and better for the environment as less food is wasted.
I admit I don’t like Tesco. My nearest one is a 10 mile round trip (which has to be taken into consideration) and is a nasty huge plebeian barn of a place. I have a Tesco Express which is a great convenience store but too expensive for doing the weekly shop. I usually shop at Waitrose with occasional trips to Morrisons to buy plebeian food, cheap cleaning stuff, and when Waitrose isn’t open.
177. BOGOFS are generally paid for by the manufacturer and not the retailer.
189 - Ah you obviously havent discovered communal shopping. I often go shopping with my Mum. We split most BOGOF’s down the middle particularly on perishables. I know a couple of friends who go shopping together and do the same. BOGOF’s on frozen and freezable stuff are great because you can plonk the stuff in the freezer and it is good for a while.
re 139 my money would be on ed being Gabble - the same widely enthusiastic monomaniacal “there is nothing wrong with the economy”, “more Tory unfunded tax cuts” line.
[151] - Sea-ice extent in the Arctic is already the second-lowest [after last year] in the modern day record. Just because a couple of loons don’t realise that there’s still a lot left, doesn’t change the large differences that have occurred.
This August has been very dull, cloudy and wet. You might therefore expect it to have been cold… but it hasn’t been particularly. The mean Central England Temperature for August 2008 was 0.2 degrees ABOVE the 1971-2000 average. That’s a sign of a strong underlying trend my dear, deluded fool.
Personally I like the opportunity to buy perishables in small quantities or loose so I can buy as much as I need. So I can, for example, buy 4 egremont russets and 3 cox’s orange pippin to last the week (not yet, but in a month or so…) Although I’m not sure what’s happened to English plums this year.
194 - The English weather this year I imagine!
20.”I suggest that you look very, very carefully at precisely what Chris Hoy said, ie. the bits in the direct quotation marks, not at what the Unionist journalists want you to think that he said.”
Salmond called it wrong when he tried to whip up some nationalist fervour for a separate Scottish team in the middle of the Beijing Olympics. It also does not help his case that the next venue for the games is London.
Is this veg-betting.com?
193 Is it? You would have to compare it with other dull wet Augusts to be sure, know how much one month’s average temperature can vary by, and whether a one off increase of 0.2C above an arbitrarily chosen 30 year average is significant - I’d guess not.
In any case, if it does show a trend you still would not know (a) how long it’s going to last (b) if it’s man-made (c) if we can do anything about it and (c) if we can do anything about it, whether we should (or how much we should, it’s not a Yes/No answer).
@188:
TOM KNOX sounds like one of those authors like John Grisham, Tom Clancy or Dan Brown that gets fabulously wealthy from writing exactly the same story over and over again.
It’s much easier if all you have to do is change character names, think of a new prole-friendly pseudo-mystical title, and then spend the rest of your time shoehorning gratuitous f*cking scenes in.
I read Huhne’s defence of Libdem chances, which predictably stresses the importance of incumbency for the Libdems, their current size compared with the 1970s and their ability to win councils in former Labour heartlands.
1. The Libdems held around 50 councils at the start of 1997. They have won and lost a number since then, but on my reckoning they have held only seven continuously: Eastleigh, Stockport, Sutton, Lewes, South Somerset, Oadby and Wigston and Vale of the White Horse. They can be dislodged. It is not inevitable that once they win they put down roots and can’t be shifted.
2. Their small size in the past meant that the other parties did not bother with them. The Tories concentrated on Labour and vice-versa. Cameron in particular realises the danger from the Libdems. He has targeted them and this will, I believe, be a significant part of his election strategy. I’m not sure how the Libdems will combat this, especially if they are trying to court Labour voters at the same time. Fighting an election on two fronts will not be easy.
3. Will the LibDems win in Labour heartlands? Well, if Labour collapse, I’m sure they will have successes. However, I look at Liverpool, where the LibDems have long been strong at a local level but have failed to convert this into parliamentary seats. A ‘core vote’ strategy by Labour might stymie the Libdems. In some places the BNP seem to benefit from Labour weakness. Even many of their wins from Labour in 2005 were in seats held by the Tories in the 1980s, which still had a large middle class or numerous students. If the Tory vote picks up it could pick up in these seats, as well.
@194:
My English plums have been exceptional this year.
HTH.
I don’t understand the way some people criticise supermarkets for making BOGOF deals (Goldsworthy on QT I remember). If you aren’t going to eat something, don’t buy it. We all know you can eat most foods beyond the use by date if you’ve got a bit of common sense.
On topic, the biggest problem for Miliband is that if labour get rid of a leader after 1 year they will look a complete shambles. You might say they do already, but this would be the undeniable confirmation for any of the current doubters. If he’d become leader last summer, my instinct is that he would have done better than Brown, but it’s too late now, Labour are past the point of no return. Give Brown a chance at conference and then make a decision as a Party. If he stays then everyone must keep shtum until the next election. But when one-side of the Party are being portrayed as a kind of ‘Taliban’ the prospects for unity don’t look good.
193. Note that I said global warming is QUITE POSSIBLY rubbish. That’s all.
I am merely introducing the possibility of doubt. The fact that crazy adherents of warmism will admit no doubt at all is what makes them look, increasingly, like freakydeaks.
More interesting data:
http://tinyurl.com/562srq
And by the way - your allegation of equivalence, at post 143, between those who doubt 9/11 and those who doubt AGW was just plain stupid. It was also foolish, juvenile and idiotic. Which is why I rightly called you a funny and pathetic little man.
To the careful shoppers - a supermarket called b&m opened here a few weeks back - with bargain prices (not special offers).
Examples:
Douwe Egbert filter coffee - Sainsbugs £2.85, b&m £0.99
Branston baked beans 4 pk - Sainsbugs £2.28, b&m £1.09
Iams dog food 3kg - Sainsbugs £8.49, b&m £3.99
Keep an eye open for one, they took over part of the Supa-saver chain.
204. Would that be the famous B&M Bargains that began operations in Blackpool a decade or so ago?
204. Where’s here?
The Blairites are being referred to by their own side as either the undead, or even worse the Taliban. Why don’t the rest of the Labour party admit that they are angry with the Blairites because they were right about Brown uselessness from the start?
28.”Hoy was not referring to the SNP with the “cash in on our success” statement: it is crystal clear that this is directed at Gordon Brown’s disgraceful abuse of Hoy to further his pathetic ‘Britishness’ campaign.”
Stuart, you are spinning faster than the wheels on Hoy’s bike, but not as successfully.
45.”I think the problem is that Labour has simply got out of the habit of working collectively (which is quite ironic given the Labour Party’s roots)”
David, excellent analysis of the current situation facing the government.
This site has gone a bit weird today.
Why is everyone ramping B&M all of a sudden? What is the going rate for a marrow these days? Who’s been squeezing Martin’s plums?
A nation demands answers.
205. Not sure, but note that they use lower-case b&m, which may or may not be a significant identifier.
Also, they don’t do fruit & veg, or frozen foods, or much dairy stuff, though I did discover Wyke Farms butter there (never tried it before). Bloody good stuff - and for £0.99.
206. North Shropshire.
In the south we have Waitrose, very reasonable.
211. Probably not worth the petrol for a trip from SW18, then?
199 — Lee Child, don’t forget Lee Child, whose ‘Jack Reacher’ stories make Fleming look like Proust.
Can someone put my mind at rest that Gordon won’t be visiting Geneva next Wednesday for the big switch on, otherwise we are doomed…
215, ARGH!
I’m all for the increase of knowledge through scientific experimentation, but it’s bloody insane to build and enormous device that could cause the end of the whole planet.
216 Are you anti Nuclear Weapons?
214. Content becomes irrelevant when there’s a profit to be made…
http://tinyurl.com/6ec3ef
215 There does seem to be some weird counter-balancing force of nature manifesting itself - that has allowed a black hole to exist at the heart of British Government. Perhaps the scientists should study that instead?
But I agree, we should take Brown’s passport off him, just in case.
Maybe his belt and shoe-laces too?
216. Seconded. It’s flipping irresponsible.
216, my understanding is that the Insanatronic Colliding Apoclaypse Machine will create a black hole, destroying the entire planet completely. It’s unnecessary.
Nukes, on the other hand, are going nowhere, because if one side has them, the other must as well.
218. Bugger. Duff url. Try:
http://tinyurl.com/6job3v
More developments in *Troopergate” just published in Anchorage News:
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/516746.html
221 - The likelihood of the switch on of the Large Hadron Collider causing the end of the world is probably broadly similar to the likelihood of walking down Regent Street and being given the winning lottery ticket by a martian.
BROWN: He has done it again - made exactly the same mistake as the GE2007. He is guilty of floating an idea, letting it get momentum: failing to quell the speculation and Bottling it.
Last year it was an election, this year it is help with heating. Politically, if anything this latest tease is even worse for Labour as an election does not freeze people to death or stop them from eating as they turn the gas on and starve. Labour are playing russian rullette with a bullet in each chamber!
224, 1:50 million or so?
The only problem is that if it happens THE WORLD ENDS. Now, the odds on a global apocalypse are very low, but I’d prefer them to be zero.
224 But the likely consequences are slightly different…
226. Look at it this way - If we turn into a black hole you will know nothing about it. Indeed it might be a good time to do a first Nuclear strike on the Russians as they could not fire back!
226 - Since the birth of the planet 4.5billion years ago the odd of a global apocalypse have never been zero. In fact you could argue that the Permian Triassic mass extinction was a global apocalypse, caused either by bolide impact, flood basalt eruption, methyl hydrates being released from the ocean or a combination of all three.
228. I was joking!
Seriously though - If it went catastrophically wrong you would die instantly! So i doubt it would be painful!
If that is any reassurance?
229, but we don’t have to make it more likely, do we?
Besides, a meteor strike or nuclear war would not actually destroy the planet, and life might survive. A black hole ends the whole planet.
231 - A black hole is highly unlikely though.
From the state of Britain’s plums to Armageddon, all within the hour. Pbc at its best.
Unions turn on Brown: Game over!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4681966.ece
173 Fernando, I would be interested to hear Chris D’s view as she also lives in LibDem country but in her case they are far more under threat.
My take is that Tavish Scott knows he is one of Holyrood’s few stars and intends to make his mark. Delivering a local income tax is arguably the only keynote LibDem policy he can hope to deliver. Alex Salmond also knows this. Sadly Annabel is still wedded to a local property tax no matter how much it needs changing.
I suspect we will have the LibDems agree the abolition of the council tax and introduction of a local income tax with the SNP. My hunch is that the Scottish Government will get to set it at 2p in the £ instead of 3p and then each council will be given the ability to levy a smallish % locally thus letting both the SNP and LibDems claim a policy success.
I also suspct we will see the alcohol restriction proposals watered down to meet with Tory approval so Salmond can get it through and of course it fits within the usual Tory hard on the causes of crime rhetoric etc. Both will claim Labour is soft on causes of crime and score points with the electorate which is fed up with drunken teenagers abusing ordinary citizens on street corners etc and using it as an excuse for large volume low level anti-social crime plus small volume serious crime, mainly stabbings.
As for supermarkets etc, my nearest shop is 4 miles and supermarket (a very expensive Coop and cheap LidL) is 8 miles so we shop at Lidl and Morrison 15 miles away and also get our petrol there as it is up to 5 pence a litre cheaper than the petrol station in the village 4 miles away. I always go for BOGOFs and if necessary cook and freeze the second part. Since Easter our household food bill has been reduced by roughly 50% each week and on a Friday evening the fridge and bread bin are empty with little wasted. I am also growing my own tomatoes and peppers and for years have had my own soft fruits, apples and plums ( most of which I make into chutney).
when I want to buy something large, I tend now to buy online or through EBay and so we have a procession of white vans arrive each week. My mother, a Daily Mail reader, also cuts out all the tokens for just about everything they offer and as a result for the cost of postage we get around 2000 pounds worth of DVDs, books, CDs, assorted crockery/cooking items and especially plants free each year.
232, but it’s an unnecessary risk. We aren’t talking about an explosion, or the Blitz or 9/11 or Krakatoa but the end of the entire world.
231 Is there any particular reason to keep it going? Other than some sort of religious imperative?
237, keep what going? The Machine of Ultimate Destruction of my posts pointing out we’re risking the death of the solar system to learn about subatomic particles?
238 Planet Earth.
238. I agree with what your asying - seems a bit pointless to say the least: what utility will we get from it?
239, well, we all live here for a start.
236 - I am reasonably certain that we aren’t talking about the end of the world. To be honest it is the usual cainotophobia associated with science. It is much more likely that the whole thing fails to work than that it results in the end of everything.
236 - I’ve read two reports that it would be a slow ‘earth eaten from within’ event or a ‘pop’ we’re all toast.
Personally, I think we’ll be ok just as long as Brown keeps his nose out.
240, 241 I don’t think I am actually saying anything, Martin, just asking a question. Most apocalyptic end-of-the-world we’re-all-doomed stuff (including lots of ecobabble) is posited on some form of religious or quasi-religious belief. What isthe Big Belief that makes it worth while keeping the Earth as a viable going concern?
Oh, and I only popped by to see if there were any local election results yesterday, not to start some sort of existentialist angst-ridden bore-in.
245 - If that were true, you’d have gone to UK Polling report first. You come to PB.com often enough to know what you’re walking into!
Just back from a TV appearance I notice a huge shift towards McCain on Intrade - latest 44. Does anybody know why? Poll news?
244 - That and a conceit that whatever happens mankind is at the apex and must be preserved at all costs. One day we will realise that we are just another arrangement of atoms like any other creature including amoeba, and that the universe doesn’t pivot around the dominant species of one fairly insignificant planet.
Further to my 247. Rasmussen has released post Palin speech numbers to their premiums members. I guess the reason lies here.
247. Because McCain is going for the “Reagan Democrats” big style. The whole message: Country first, Cleaning up washington etc.
As I have said previously, I think McCain has a much better chance than the distaughted picture we have seen on here in the last few days. I really think that Obama’s skin colour will do for Obama in the end. McCain ain’t going to win be 1984 landslides but a win is a win
225
I rarely comment on your posts as they are so frequent (!)… but you have it in one. Spot on.
Gordon has made the SAME mistake again.
Managing expectations is fundamental to politics:(see S Palin’s speech).
I think Labour should ditch Brown now and appoint a committe as his replacement as surely they could not be so daft?
(mind you with Ed Balls..)
Here in darkest wettest N Staffs we have : Tesco, Asda, Waitrose, Sainsbury, Budgens, Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl, Marks and Spencer and Home Bargains.
I can assure readers that Aldi have a very limited range 1100 items vs major’s 44,000 but eggs are 25% cheaper… . Some you lose on but bread is much cheaper etc.
Home Bargains - Google it - retails surplus food and household items. Schweppes 1 litre tonic retails at 99p plu… 35p. And so on. I bulk buy tonic. Stocks vary but it is MUCH cheaper. (I have no connections etc).
Which all proves civilisation does not stop north of Watford: it starts north of Birmingham.
If they keep Brown , he will drive their core away: he appaears incapable of understanding basic politics. As a backroom man I suppose that is inevitable but incapable of learning from past mistakes!
But the promotions are from the higher prices -your mini mars bars will be on special offer 25% off or something soon. The rule states that the higher price has had to have been in force for only 28 days in the last 6 months.
118.Morus or Mike, shouldn’t the post @118 be moderated?
235.”My take is that Tavish Scott knows he is one of Holyrood’s few stars and intends to make his mark. Delivering a local income tax is arguably the only keynote LibDem policy he can hope to deliver. Alex Salmond also knows this. Sadly Annabel is still wedded to a local property tax no matter how much it needs changing.
I suspect we will have the LibDems agree the abolition of the council tax and introduction of a local income tax with the SNP. My hunch is that the Scottish Government will get to set it at 2p in the £ instead of 3p and then each council will be given the ability to levy a smallish % locally thus letting both the SNP and LibDems claim a policy success.”
I would be delighted if the Libdems got into bed with the SNP over their proposals and then fiddled with them so they could both try and claim some success for this totally unworkable plan.
I would be even more chuffed if Gordon Brown took off his blinkers and did not hold back on that extra money that Salmond is bleating about as being an essential part of it.
If there is one thing I have learnt about coalition politics up here when implementing a major policy change, never underestimate the dogs dinner that will then be served up to us poor voters.
Annabel Goldie is right not to touch this policy in its present form.
re 226 Morris Dancer I’m afraid the odds are currently not zero. Sooner or later many millions of people, perhaps tens of millions if it happens in the ocean, will be killed by an asteroid strike. Nearer home we have large shiled volcanoes and landslides in the Canary islands to think about.
Do I detect a little war with Iain Dale going on here?
251. Interestingly, I wonder whether food hoarding is comming back into vogue?
I agree Brown is a terrible politicain and has sacrificed Labour to his own vanity!
253 re 118 - I agree. This has no place here.
255 - Refresh that thought again, and again, you naughty boy.
246 OK, Morus, it’s a fair cop!
254, again, a black hole would kill everyone and destroy the planet. A meteor strike could be catastrophic but is very unlikely to destroy the whole planet.
Tory MP Michael Fabricant in forced Coccaine overdose seige:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/2687692/Tory-MP-Michael-Fabricant-forced-to-eat-coffee-whitener-at-gunpoint.html
260 - depends how big the meteor is. The fact is that the idea that this collider will cause the end of the world is a great plot idea for some cheesy TV disaster movie but really isn’t in the realm of considered science.
225
he is right about F5 actually, I would prefer it if the site auto refreshed every two minutes…
173.”Will this be more difficult now as the policy on replacing the council tax by a local income tax is unlikely to be well received by Goldie, nor is the proposal to ban the sale of alcohol to anyone under 21. Will the LibDems become the partner of choice for the SNP in 2008/9 as the new agenda seems more palatable to them.”
Fernando, I do hope so….
Radio 4 news carries interview about pensioners who are ‘living’ during the night to benefit from cheap electricity! The old girl is getting up at 1am to cook her roast chicken cos its half price leccy!
5. Stuart Dickson’s post about the full Populus data tables is muddled and inaccurate as well as weirdly aggressive. The headline voting intention figures were published on Tuesday, not Monday as he asserts. And the focus of Mike’s post - and this thread - is the ‘named leader’ data, which has only been published in The Times today and therefore, under BPC rules, for which the accompanying tables need not be published for two working days. They will in fact go onto the Populus website today, along with the main voting data, and I apologise for the oversight which has meant those tables did not go on the website yesterday as they should.
118/253/257 - This is tricky. The rumour is already out, and thogh I won’t run a piece on it, and don’t particularly want it being talked about, I don’t want to be the smear and rumour police in the comments thread - I don’t have time, and it upsets everyone anyway.
I’ve moderated part of post 118 that was taken from an attack site, where it mentioned allegations that I don’t believe have appeared here before. The rest is now fairly common knowledge, so I will leave it in the comment, but ask people not to dwell on baseless personal rumour.
The idea that McCain will stop Palin from doing any interviews is clearly false surely. It would be an admission that she isn’t up to the job and the media would just do their job anyway, just by roundabout means.
This isn’t an official announcement is it?
If there is anybody on here who likes to back big priced selections four years in advance, and then go on about it endlessly as they shorten, perhaps I can point out ladbrokes 2012 Presidential prices?
10 Clinton
16 Palin
20 Romney
33 Biden
50 Bloomberg
66 Schweitzer
100 Paul
269
Where do we find the big prices?
232.”231 - A black hole is highly unlikely though.”
Well Gordon Brown managed to produce one in the UK Treasury accounts.
235, 253. What is the lesson to be learnt from Gordon’s disastrous 10p tax debacle? The lesson with any tax change is make sure you know who is losing out — you will hear a lot of moaning from them.
The SNP argue that 20 per cent of people will be worse off. (As with all politicians, I’d imagine this is on the optimistic side). Again, I ask the SNP/Scottish LibDems, who are these people who are losing out, and what is their average loss ?
Although Easterross keeps on telling us he’ll be better off, my hunch is that most people worse off will be high earners/two income families — in other words, not exclusively, but predominantly, Tory voters. In which case, Goldie has called this right from a party political perspective.
255 - Nothing to do with me!
I thought it was a little snarky of Iain to assume that we have fewer readers. 1.5m hits a month (and it has been 2.5m) is about 50,000 a day. We only get about a thousand comments a day, so if people are hitting refresh to see who has responded to them, it wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of those hits. Is he seriously suggesting we get more than five times as many hits, and only a third of his readership? Hmm…
Also, there are only a couple of thousand people (max) who comment regularly. The majority of people I speak to only read the threads most times, and around a quarter of our readers come from overseas. We’re reaching places the rest of the UK blogosphere doesn’t.
Oh, and it’s about quality, not quantity. Any site in the world would kill for the quality of our comments thread. I think this is someone trying to defend his ad revenue, and being a little snarky with it!!
249 - Ahead of you Jan, I said yesterday to watch out for a spike in Rasmussen today and that would drive the markets.
Not that I’m backing that with my own money at the moment.
Off out to lunch. See you later!
267.Morus, most of us would not copy and paste something like that from a dubious site or source, better to indicate the topic and simple allow people to click on the link to it.
Weather is dire in Yorkshire. Solid rain, since I woke up.
We haven’t had two weeks nice weather since Brown became PM, and the one week that was nice was when Boris got elected.
273. I don’t know i tend to refresh about every 20-40 seconds!
That said I am always surprised you do not have more ads on PB.com
273.Putting it another way, is Iain a daily one hit wonder while some just can’t seem to stay away from PB.com.
180 - I’m sure that Cole Porter thought it hilarious to get 1930s men singing “and if baby I’m the bottom, you’re the top”.
277 And snow after easter!
279. Problem with Iain’s site and Guido’s is the ID checkers where you type a code in. Takes too bloody long! The updide is he has more control of his site - the doenside is less hits.
According to Paul Waugh at the Evening Standard, we should be pencilling in Friday 5th June 2009 for Gordon’s departure:
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/09/the-day-gordon.html
Very plausible, if Labour are (a) acting rationally, and (b) can hold things together for that long.
272.”The SNP argue that 20 per cent of people will be worse off. (As with all politicians, I’d imagine this is on the optimistic side). Again, I ask the SNP/Scottish LibDems, who are these people who are losing out, and what is their average loss ?
Although Easterross keeps on telling us he’ll be better off, my hunch is that most people worse off will be high earners/two income families — in other words, not exclusively, but predominantly, Tory voters. In which case, Goldie has called this right from a party political perspective.”
Gywnfa, got in one, and its the double income families of which there is a lot both in the public and private sector who will lose out. In other words, its the middle income families in Scotland who will lose out. The Runrig generation if you like, and they are an important group to the Tories, Libdems, but more importantly they are vital to the SNP if they want to win an independence referendum.
278 - Martin clearly accounts for about a million of those page loads…..
280 - Cole Porter’s lyrics contain a myriad of coded references to sexual proclivities, some not so coded.
277 - Just think what the weather will be like when Cameron is elected!
Guido’s and Iain’s comments are just not worth reading - most of them are either potty-mouthed sycophants or lefty trolls. I log on every day or two mainly to see what they’ve written themselves. Whereas pb is more like a bulletin board: it’s the discussions that are the most interesting, and if there is an interesting one going on you log on more often to read it. So it certainly captures the attention of its readers for longer.
Just to put to bed the Lib Dem ramping on here, I have done a little maths. To equal their standing in the last elections from here (the current Times poll), the Lib Dems would need to do one of the following:
(1) gain a swing of 9% from Labour (C:46, L:17, LD:25). Given that Labour have never polled as low as 17%, seems unlikely. The lowest Labour poll since 2005 at 23% (C:46, L:23, LD:19) would give the Lib Dems 31 seats.
(2) gain a swing of 7% from the Tories (C:39, L:26, LD:23). The last time the Lib Dems polled 23% was January 2007. This gives the Lib Dems 21 months until the next election to claw back a position it has taken the Tories 20 months to achieve. To achieve this the Lid Dems have 1 month to find someone of Cameron’s stature and appoint them as leader. Unlikely.
(3) gain a swing of 4% from the Tories and 3% from Labour, making a total swing of 7% (C:42, L:23, LD:23). As above Lib Dems need to hit 23% in the polls to achieve this. Unlikely.
The best thing for the Lib Dems to do is to try to limit seat losses to between 10 and 20 by polling at about 22%. Last time this happened - January 2007.
David Cameron is the next PM.
US employment numbers just out - very bad. The economic backdrop to the contest is going to be pretty rough.
On topic, I’m not sure that these results about David Miliband tell us much. As others have said, he is an unknown quantity to most members of the public. I wouldn’t rule him out on the basis of this data (I would rule him out because he has no presence, no agenda, no obvious leadership prowess and no ability to boost party morale).
The following points are, however, clear:
1) Labour is deeply unpopular.
2) The Conservatives are correspondingly popular.
3) Gordon Brown is disliked even more than Labour.
4) No change = no chance.
Labour should therefore defenestrate Gordon Brown just as it defenestrated Tony Blair. They should then pick someone who the public can at least respect as a leader - John Reid would be my choice if he were mug enough to agree to do it, but Jack Straw would be fine. Of course, the Thirty Years War started with twin defenestrations…
Good article in Spectator on Labour as the nasty party of 2008:http://www.spectator.co.uk/i/the-magazine/features/2057251/labours-punishment-freaks-are-hounding-honest-citizens.thtml
7 Surely this devolution U turn is going hurt Labour hard in the long run. Won’t fiscal independence for Scotland really mean independence for Scotland? The only possible way the UK can remain intact is via a federal solution. Assymetric devolution has created huge variations across the UK with England losing out. The SNP have recreated Social Democracy, something that has been missing since the 1970s, perhaps English Nationalist Parties can spread real social democracy in England again as New Labour deserted it.
One cannot campare the UK’s devolution arrangements with those of France or Spain because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are nations in their own right and not a part of England. The Basque and other regions are part of Spain, not a nation within another nation. Cornwall is a region of England, not a nation in its won right, so too are Northumbria and Cumbria.
290
Brown is loathed by large parts of the electorate. Its gone beyond dislike. When you get a poll that says only 1/100 think hes doing a great job…..
290 John Reid of Jack Straw would be much much worse for Labour, just stick with Brown.
re 273 well I must hit refresh at least a dozen times a day.
294, Straw wouldn’t be, but Reid is a vile Politburo thug.
292 You are right co complain about Labour’s bungled devolution arrangements.
“The Basque and other regions are part of Spain, not a nation within another nation. Cornwall is a region of England, not a nation in its won right, so too are Northumbria and Cumbria.”
Complete nonsense.
The Basques and the Catalans have the most important thing — a distinct language and hence a distinctive cultural identity from Castilian Spain.
292. A lot of Basques would dispute that description. And NI is surely two nations, if anything.
re 282 AARGH - fewer hits please
295. I never thought I’d say this, but I’m with Martin Day on this one. (Maybe one refresh every three to five minutes when I’m on the site.)
re 283 well the Euro votes won’t be counted until Sunday, 7th June.
295, 300 I have got my addiction under control now.
Interesting article in Spectator Business on G Brown’s policy of continual debt financing and not repaying debt during the good times:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/i/business/the-magazine/magazine-lead-article%20s/2053916/the-treasury-gordon-left-behind-cant-wait-to-see-labour-lose-p%20ower.thtml
300 - Please no auto-refresh. It would make the job of those of us toiling on blackberries almost impossible.
300
i reckon i must refresh at least 50 times, but then i am a political junkie.
The Daily Mail is wipping up anti-Scottish sentiment. It is fact going to be the UK taxpayer (>85% English) that will have to forward £800 Million shortfall. See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1052101/Now-Salmond-wants-axe-Scottish-council-tax–leave-English-800m-bill.html
re 284 what’s a middle income family?
The 4th quintile of household incomes has a mean annual income of just under £39k (source ONS). The upper quintile has a mean of about £72k. Basically if you’re paying 40% tax you are not “middle income” you are rich.
Ugh, I didn’t think I could despise Iain Dale any more…what an idiot.
Labour warned about the consequences of devolution leading to independence, see http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1052310/ANALYSIS-A-monster-Labours-making.html
273 - there is also the fun situation whereby different web stats products count things differently and with different definitions - something that is especially painful if you are moving from one system to another and you suddenly see wild swings in visitor numbers.
I think it is probably wrong to assume that lurkers (constituting probably the VAST majority of site visitors) don’t refresh as often as regular posters.
Not sure if you have Google Analytics ( as used by Iain Dale and Barack Obama!) on this site but that would at least enable you to compare like with like - an important consideration when you are both wanting to impress potential advertisers and need workable comparable circulation figures.
Early unconfirmed report on todays Rasmussen tracker is Obama +2 down 3 from yesterday. Unsure if that includes leaners or not. The new figure will include all post Palin speech period.
283: ‘According to Paul Waugh at the Evening Standard, we should be pencilling in Friday 5th June 2009 for Gordon’s departure’
Excellent! I have a nice little bet going on Brown not being PM at a 2010 general election. If he goes in June next year then Labour will need a month or two to pick a new leader, then it’s the summer holidays, then autumn will be setting in. So spring 2010 it will be! Hooray!
312. Labour will be at around 12% by then, at this rate.
[203] - There’s a difference between being sceptical about something, and ignorantly misunderstanding information merely because it fits your preconceived worldview.
You ignorantly misinterpret what the English weather of this August has to say about global warming. This sort of ignorance is prevalent in discussion of the CO2/temperature lag in ice cores and myriad other interesting things in climate science.
Some people, continue to cling to explanations of this data that fit their preferred opinion of “there’s nothing to worry about; it’s all a greenie plot”, etc, despite the logical fallacies.
That is where the similarity to the 9/11 nutters comes in. They ignore the sober explanations from experienced engineers, and cling to the few people who say the things they want to hear.
Far too many self-declared climate sceptics are of the same ilk. They take the word of a small number of like-minded people, such as failed chancellor Nigel Lawson, as gospel, and ignore the sober, sensible explanations patiently offered by numerous climate scientists. They refuse to put any effort into understanding the science, taking the easy option out to listen only to what they want to hear.
The solar events are indeed interesting. Climate projections by the IPCC have always been produced with the proviso “all other things remaining equal”, where “other things” in this context implies volcanic and solar activity. We can neither prevent nor predict those changes, but we can control the effect of CO2 and the other greenhouse gases. It would be sensible and worthwhile for us to do so.
311 Unable to access Rasmussen, I guess everybody is trying to get through, but Intrade reaction indicates that yesterday must have been a really good day for McCain - a clear lead that day, I suppose.
“That is where the similarity to the 9/11 nutters comes in. They ignore the sober explanations from experienced engineers, and cling to the few people who say the things they want to hear.”
See also Holocaust Denial, (Young-Earth) Creationism, AIDS-rejectionists, the Saddam-secretly-shipped-all-his-WMDs-to-Syria-really-he-did brigade, etc…
New Thread
Interesting stats from Alexa (web info)
Politicalbetting.com users come from these countries:
United Kingdom79.7%United States10.2%Mexico1.3%Czech Republic0.7%France0.6%
More politicalbetting.com users…
United Kingdom79.7%United States10.2%Mexico1.3%Czech Republic0.7%France0.6%Serbia and Montenegro0.5%Other countries7.2%
Less…
Would someone clarify the position on censorship on this site - the original content of 118 which I’m managed to retrieve from source site seems plausible enough. Plenty of speculation exists so when does it get moderated??
319 - We will not run a thread on unsubstantiated rumour, only on things already in the public domain, and noted by the campaigns.
The comments thread sees plenty of new smears and rumour - much of this is already well discussed, so I see no point in moderating it.
Rumour that has not appeared on the site, or is not well-known in the blogosphere, or may be libellous, is likely to be deleted.
The default position remains that we will don’t like to censor or moderate comments, but at the same time we don’t want this to become a smear-mongering site.
Any questions, please e-mail me on morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com
307.”Basically if you’re paying 40% tax you are not “middle income” you are rich.”
Chris, Brown has tried to spin that line, and maybe the policy wonks in the SNP or Libdems believe it too. Oh dear……