How can any of them rebel after this?
September 9th, 2008
Will the Birmingham away-day keep Gord in his job?
Well there they are after a summer of apparent discontent and whispering and the cabinet all travel to Birmingham to hold the first meeting outside London for ninety years. Every single one of them joins in by doing outside public events before the meeting itself which receives much more media attention than usual.
And judging by the statements of loyalty and support afterwards it appears that this novel move by Brown has done the trick. How can, for instance, David Miliband now be the centre of a coup given the unwavering support in his TV interviews?
Has Gord once again out-foxed them? The Birmingham
In its report the Telegraph recounts rather sadly that after the public events Brown”…retired inside the International Convention Centre, which was surrounded by superfluous barriers, for no crowds had gathered to try to catch a glimpse of him. The tragedy of this shy and sensitive man is not just that he cannot bear to reveal himself to the outside world, but that the outside world has already lost interest in him.” stunt meeting forced possible rebels into such a public unified display that would make it look even odder if any of them were to act against the PM in the next month or so?
The next big outing from Brown will be today at the TUC which isn’t going to be easy given the rumblings on public sector pay. Then at the end of the month there’s the Labour conference in Manchester when, I predict, his standing ovation will be the longest for any Labour leader in living memory. Remember the interminable eight minutes of clapping by Tory delegates after IDS’s conference speech in October 2003 only a few weeks before his MPs knifed him?
Labour, maybe to its great cost, is not like that. I am now even more convinced that Brown is going to survive in the short-term at least. If he does decide to step aside, as I think is quite likely, it will be of his own accord at a time of his choosing.
General election party leaders betting.
Mike Smithson
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Of course not! The whole thing is comletely desperate and hysterically apocalyptic. (I say “hysterically” in the medical sense of nervous desperation rather than positive excitement). GB will stay in his job despite this ridiculous charade, not because of it. The cabinet comprises a load of spineless zombies who have no stomach for the fight, and who would prefer to walk brain-dead into oblivion in 2010, taking 200 of their backbench colleagues with them, rather than find the spine to stab Old Miseryguts in the back.
Then at the end of the month there’s the Labour conference in Manchester when, I predict, his standing ovation will be the longest for any Labour leader in living memory.
Perhaps they would do better to use the USA/Ceausescu method of orchestrating 67 standing ovations during his speech, as well as a long ovation at the end.
Gordon Brown is the only man who can rescue Labour and the UK economy…? I am seriously concerned for his mental health!
2 - I expect they’ll release photos of the adoring masses praising our Great Leader, only for some eagle-eye to spot the same small group of people seemingly standing in five places at once……
Miliband comes across as the most spineless politician of all time. He has less bottle than Mcbottle Brown.
‘Day the cabinet came to town, but nobody noticed’
… the Iscariot prize for damning with faint praise had to go to John Hutton, Westminster’s Business Secretary, who was asked if he supported his leader. He replied that he backed “the work of the Prime Minister”. Oh dear.
As Gordy left, a small crowd had gathered at the barriers. Amid a ripplet of applause, a heckler fired abuse at our noble leader, branding him a “war criminal”. The PM beamed and waved as if it were a fantastic compliment.
Minutes later, Centenary Square was empty again and the tumbleweed drifted by. Next meeting of the non-London cabinet? Glenrothes, of course.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2443287.0.Day_the_cabinet_came_to_town_but_nobody_noticed.php
Will you be there too Nick? Pounding the streets of Kennoway?
By any objective account Brown had a good day yesterday, yet the spin is still firmly against him. This barrier stuff is pretty weak. Not even in the height of Blair’s pomp would the crowds have been lining up to see him at a cabinet meeting. No-one least of all Brown would have expected that yesterday.
Clearly Brown still has to fix his realtionship with the media before he can make progress. Right now not even his friends are giving him a good press, even when it goes well/ok like yesterday.
7 - what exactly was there that could have gone “badly” yesterday?
Over at Anthony’s UK Polling Report the Scottish National Party’s Cllr Peter Cairns (Dingwall & Seaforth, Highland Council) has been looking at the details of that YouGov/Sunday Times Scotland poll:
“… it breaks down the independence vote by Party, Gender, Age and Class, which gives some idea of who thinks what.
Unsurprisingly 70% of the yes vote vote SNP (while *5 of the No vote are SNP supporters too). Roughly speaking libdems are 2-1 against, Labour 3-1 and tories 4-1. The SNP are 9-1 in favour.
Support for the SNP is highest in the over 55’s but lowest in the 35-54’s. By class it’s roughly even. Labour unsurprisingly has more C2DE’s while Tory and libdems more ABC1’s.
In the Holyrood constituency and regional votes both Labour and SNP do better than westminster in C2DE’s while the Tories and Libdems fair even better with ABC1’s.
Oddly enough when asked about voting for Independence it’s 35-54’s who are most in favour. On class it’s an even split.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1365#comment-479125
The full YouGov datasheets are here, if you want to get your own calculator out. I’m sure Mark Senior already has, and is currently having a wee lie down in a darkened room hugging teddy very tightly, as he gently sobs into his fluffy pillow.
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Scottish_05-Sep-2008.pdf
“How can any of them rebel after this?” After all, how ungrateful would you have to be to want to dispose of the executioner of your party and of your colleagues - considering he took them out for a day trip to Brum….
A public event without the public. Fantastic. Those spin doctors are really earning the money Labour pays them. When will they learn that rather than parading Gordon at the head of his Cabinet, they should be locking him in a cupboard. The only way the public want to see Gordon Brown in public is on his walk to the political gallows, where they can throw fruit and vegetables at him (or they would, if it weren’t so damned expensive).
“Will the Birmingham away-day keep Gord in his job?”
I certainly hope so!
Gordon who?
8 A cabinet minister( or ministers) might have not have showed up. It was a public meeting. Anything other than unity would have been disasterous. Instead it worked well.
Imagine if someone was talking about the barriers outside a Cameron meeting. We’d all agreee that would be pretty weak. This is weak too.
When the Cabinet met at Inverness LLoyd George was holiday at Gairloch, (with wife and mistress on tow). It appears that he was also involved in delicate negociations with SF, or at the very least receiving their reprenatives. The Cabinet were summoned to Inverness to hear or discuss the outcome. At least something constructive was being done.
Compared to LL G, Brown is a colossus, with feet of clay. Relaunch, what relaunch? It is very difficult when the torpedoes have hit.
13, so, the idea of a Brown triumph these days is when ministers turn up for Cabinet?
14. It has been suggested that it was in Inverness because Lloyd George was at serious risk of IRA assassination in London.
O/T
Tributes were paid today to long-serving Labour councillor Elizabeth Maginnis, who died early yesterday of a brain haemorrhage.
Councillor Maginnis, 54, represented the Granton area for 22 years and served as education convener for both Lothian and Edinburgh.
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/Tributes-pour-in-for-veteran.4468105.jp
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Shock-as-councillor-dies-suddenly.4467371.jp
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7604722.stm
However, if the Coffee House view that Brown is concentrating on subduing his own side (as when he was Chancellor) it does strengthen his position within Labour.
Unfortunately, he remains electoral poison. If things continue as they are, anti-Labour persons will run out of clips from Downfall to mock him with. They’ll probably have to move on to foreign versions of ‘Allo ‘Allo.
Incidentally, Downfall’s a great film, although if you haven’t seen it yet and have seen the many, many youtube spoofs it may rather lessen the film’s impact.
17 Surely it is not unreasonable to get all your guns firing in the right direction before you fire.
Brown has deserved much of his flak, but criticism for this is a touch ott.
Question: why does US economic policy draw such praise from some on the right when it is effectively Keynesian? Raise spending, cut taxes, raise borrowing?
Do you think some people don’t know that Keynes advocated tax cuts entering a recession?
Interesting stuff. Suggests any Tory unrest post election may not be quite as potent and damaging as some are hoping.
‘NI Abortion Act campaign to begin’
“Northern Ireland is already 41 years behind England, Scotland and Wales,” [Alliance for Choice spokesperson Barbara Muldoon] said.
“(That’s) something that really seems inconceivable, that women in Northern Ireland would be denied a right that their sisters elsewhere in the UK have.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7605600.stm
13. I don’t see how this is a good thing for Brown. He held a cabinet in Birmingham, answered no questions to the press or anyone else, then left. The fact they turned up and there was no disunity isn’t exactly something to shout about.
18, I barely criticise Brown, except to state the obvious: he has the opposite of the Midas touch.
Note to self: always find out if Brown has backed a sportsman or sports team prior to betting.
Despite my bad ending to the US Open, I think the nature of scoring in tennis may make it quite conducive to odds shifting nicely enough to be profitable. Indeed, a 3-0 Federer win is probably the only occurrence that could’ve prevented me laying 3-2.
Brown’s Cabinet of seagulls.
Fly in, eat the food and c*** everywhere.
18. That Brown is getting criticised by the media for getting the internal government and Labour Party politics straight is indicative of the general media mood. Whether it’s fair or not is beside the point (and ‘but that’s not fair’ is the bleat of a five-year-old, before they’ve learned that life often isn’t). And yes, commenting about empty barriers IS weak, but the key point is that the media choose to do so anyway.
On Mike’s intro, I argued some time ago that Brown was safe until next Summer and have laid money on him going in Q4 this year, which I’m looking forward to picking up in January. I’ve also backed him leaving in 2009Q3, which is far from certain but still looks much closer to an even money bet than present odds have it.
23. Morris Dancer: Note to self: always find out if Brown has backed a sportsman or sports team prior to betting.
Amen to that.
Note to Brown’s PR staff: if your boss in planning to wish England good luck for tomorrow night’s match in Croatia, STOP HIM!
Usefully, the full YouGov datasheet breaks down the Holyrood regional PR “Others” vote (this was not reported in the Sunday Times). This is crucial because tiny changes in the Green vote can have major consequences, especially to the number of Conservative MSPs.
The complete Holyrood regional (PR) numbers are: SNP 35%, Lab 25%, Con 14%, LD 14%, Grn 6%, SSP 4%, Sol 1%, oth 2%.
If you pump those numbers, and the previously published constituency numbers (SNP 45%, Lab 26%, LD 15%, Con 13%, oth 4%), into the Scotland Votes seat calculator, you get:
SNP 58 seats (+11 seats)
Lab 35 seats (-11 seats)
LD 16 seats (n/c)
Con 15 seats (-2 seats)
Grn 3 seats (+1 seat)
SSP 2 seats (+2 seats)
(Ind 0 seats (-1 seat) - M Macdonald retiring)
Scottish Parliament = 129 seats
therefore 65 seats needed to form a majority government
Unionist parties = 66 seats
Pro-independence parties = 63 seats
Which bloc the Presiding Officer comes from could be critical!
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/Scottish_05-Sep-2008.pdf
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
Milliband was such a weed on C4 yesterday giving it the ‘I luv GB’ etc.
28 - Did he show his hands at all? Were there thumbscrew marks?
Apologies for the length of the post, but this is an article I wrote about a month ago explaining why I thought then, and still think now, that Brown is safe for another nine months or so. Some of it is a touch out of date, but as the then predictions have been borne out by events, it seems OK to me to leave it as it is.
—-
That the events of November 1990 are still casting their shadow over British politics nearly eighteen years on is testament to not only their drama but also their rarity. Throughout the twentieth century, Margaret Thatcher was the only prime minister so unambiguously forced out by her own party. The others who left mid-term did so of their own accord, because of the lack of a parliamentary majority, through ill-health, because of a more general loss of necessary support or some combination of these factors.
There has always been much speculation over the future of prime ministers during crises, but the number of times it actually leads to a change at the top are few and far between - and even then it usually takes some coincidence of events. Eden might have been forced out over Suez (and the subsequent cover-up) but his health was genuinely not up to it in any case; Blair had already promised publicly to stand down this parliament, so was always living on borrowed time. Far more common, though far less remembered, are the times when the crisis passes and the government does not fall.
Since 1990, all subsequent leadership crises tend to be measured against that backdrop in the expectation or at least hope that there will be a similar outcome, yet for all sorts of reasons, that is always unlikely. There is often an allied expectation that a change of leader will produce a similar result in terms of a polling boost - and that too is equally misguided unless the conditions are similar.
For one thing, the Conservative Party at the time had annual leadership elections in which candidates only required two nominations to stand and for which the electorate was just the parliamentary party. That meant that it was relatively easy to force a contest (as Anthony Meyer had shown the previous year), and that it would be over quickly and cheaply. Neither of these conditions apply to any of the main three parties now.
For another, it’s worth remembering just what an extraordinary set of circumstances combined during that month. The backdrop was a Conservative Party trailing badly in the polls as a result of an increasingly disliked strident style of leadership, a rapid rise in interest rates, divisions in the government over European policy, and above all, the Poll Tax. The previous year the Chancellor of the Exchequer had resigned. In the same month as the leadership election was due, the Deputy Prime Minister resigned and subsequently delivered a shatteringly powerful resignation speech (all the more powerful as it was not thought that he was capable of doing so). There was a candidate willing and able to challenge the PM who was widely seen as a viable replacement. In summary, there was the mechanism, candidate, support and spark, all of which were necessary for a challenge to take place. Without any one of those four things, it is probable that Thatcher would have served through to 1992. In addition, at least two of the problems afflicting the Conservatives - the style of leadership and the Poll Tax - could be resolved by a change of Prime Minister, so there was a real purpose to holding a contest.
Which brings us back to the present. Of the four criteria listed, the only one in place at the moment is the general situation that makes an election a sensible option if the others can be fulfilled. Labour’s leadership election is cumbersome, there is no Heseltine-like figure on the backbenches - so if there is to be a challenge it will have to come from the cabinet (requiring a resignation first), and there is no spark to set off an election.
All of this leads me to the conclusion that Brown is probably now safe in Number Ten through to at least next Summer. Short of a back-me-or-sack-me vote, which would be utterly alien to Brown’s style, a leadership election can only be forced at the Party Conference if nominations from 20% of the parliamentary party are received at least two weeks in advance. That’s an extremely high bar, especially when the PLP is dispersed away from Westminster between now and the deadline in mid-September and with no obvious candidate to rally around. For reference, it was a close-run thing when IDS was deposed by the Conservative parliamentary party in 2003 as to whether a sufficient number of letters would be received sparking a no-confidence vote, and that was with the signatories to the letters being kept private, with fewer required, in a party both more inclined to replace its leader and in opposition, and with the MP’s at Westminster.
If the nominations were received, the game would probably be up for Brown - even if he could win the vote at conference (and he didn‘t get where he is today by not being able to work the corridors of power effectively), it would be a pyrrhic victory: with over seventy MP’s publicly calling for his removal, the PLP would be all but unmanageable. And there’s then the second stage of electing a replacement. That took two months last year and with an uncertain outcome, ministers and MP’s will become much less inclined to support any new or existing policy they believe is or will be unpopular, not knowing how a new PM or cabinet would view it. The whips will temporarily lose much of their authority in the same way. MP‘s will be well aware of that effect, and while the prospect of a lighter touch from the government and whips might appeal, the associated paralysis likely to result will act as a further inhibiting factor against their moving to force an election - how could the government develop a Queen‘s Speech or Budget in the midst of a leadership election? All in all, the window of opportunity to replace him has probably now closed until next June.
No, but he did complain of having carpet burns on his knees and a stiff neck.
Managed to update UPMYASS (no change from electoral-vote.com yet).
e-v D 45.4 (nc) R 44.1 (nc)
rcp D 45.8 (nc) R 44 (+0.1)
538 D 49.5 (-0.7) R 48.3 (+1.2)
avg D 46.9 (-0.2) R 45.5 (+0.5)
2 party share
e-v D 50.7 (nc) R 49.3 (nc)
rcp D 51 (nc) R 49 (nc)
538 D 50.6 (-0.5) R 49.4 (+0.5)
avg D 50.8 (-0.1) R 49.2 (+0.1)
So a small, but potentially significant if maintained, swing to the Republicans. Waiting on e-v tomorrow should reinforce this. 538.com seemed to have reviewed all their states hence the larger movement.
All in all, still too close to call! But NONE yet putting the Republicans ahead.
23. “he has the opposite of the Midas touch”
He’s the Gordon Medusa.
33, boom boom!
I can’t believe no-one thought of that before. Brilliant work.
14.
“it is very difficult when the torpedoes have hit.”
especially, as with the USS Liberty, so many of them come from ‘friendly’ fire.
When Gordon plays MacBeth, two of the witches will be GrandMarr Ashley and Pollyfilla (the other space on the team is permanently taken by Melanie Phillips).
Yesterday I was chided, for suggesting the Daily Mail had moved to the left, (I never have) but it looks like it has.
Only fourty eight hours after, ‘Socialism saved the World’ the Mail is calling on Brown to nationalize the entire UK morgage market.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1053627/Now-Gordon-Brown-follow-Americas-lead-save-housing-market.html
What next Banks and Insurance Companies?
Do you think the Mail has a dose of the Trots?
p.s.
I’m waiting for Cameron and Co. to criticise the US government’s appalling decision to interfere with the free market.
36, weren’t Freddie and Fannie created with and have always had the government’s guarantee as a backup, should necessity require it?
In that case, the situation is very different to the one here.
36
Whoops sorry! The US government isn’t calling it nationalization it’s called, “conservatorship”, is that word?
37
Arse!!!
37. No - it is just that the markets assumed (correctly) that the government would ultimately step in to support them if necessary.
30. David Herdson as astute as ever: “… the mechanism, candidate, support and spark…”
1 out of 4 ain’t good enough.
Needed:
a. a mechanism (TUC?)
b. a candidate (this is the real problem)
c. a spark (Glenrothes or Euros?)
38
Yes, conservatorship, it’s what happened to Britney recently, I know all the celeb goss.
Good joke for CiF today.
With regard to Polly Toynbee’s Tuscan villa:-
Hard to credit, but there is one joke attributed to Gordon Brown. After the Blair-Brown one-man-one-vote OMOV campaign, Brown was in a plane, with journalists in attendance, flying over Tuscany, reading an economics book, which he suddenly looked up from, and declared, one-man-one-villa …
40
Double arse, with knobs on!!
Government’s should stay out of the market place, in the words of the dear Lady, ‘You can’t buck the market’
43 - Impressive - to the right of the Republican party.
36. Conservative governments have never believed in the free market as an end in itself. It’s only their more simplistic supporters and caricaturists who’ve done that.
The (regulated - and that’s an important distinction) free market is backed because Conservatives see it as most likely to deliver efficient services, increase choice, opportunities and social mobility and reduce resentment at agreements that favour the parties making them at the expense of the general public. It’s also more likely to deliver more rapid economic growth.
Even so, ask a hundred conservatives whether they favour the free market ahead of social stability or vice versa and about ninety will go for the latter. That’s the key thing about the free market for Conservatives: it’s a means to that end. Except on occasion it isn’t. When the market fails (and that’s often because of inadequate regulation), the state has to step in to prevent either dire consequences for the broader economy or society.
If there is one constant thread that runs through the Conservative Party and its predecessors back to the time of Pitt, it is that overriding objective: to minimise the risk of serious social unrest. All policies, whether they be free trade or protection, pro-EEC or anti-EU, empire building or dissolving or any of the other myriad policies that could be contradicted by another example from a different time, should be seen in that context. Even policies which at the time looked to bring about social disruption were often introduced as change was believed to be necessary and moderate disruption at the time was considered better than greater disruption later.
43 - I agree, but I don’t think the US action is there to buck the market but merely to ensure that the market isn’t structurally destabilised. In that sense they US govt is doing what it ought which is creating the conditions in which a market can operate.
There was a ‘named leader’ question in the YouGov/Sunday Times poll:
“Given the current ‘credit crunch’, and the problems of rising food and energy prices, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?”
Alex Salmond 36
Gordon Brown 26
Would not trust either of them at all 27
Don’t know 11
So Salmond wins even though macroeconomic policy is reserved to Westminster.
Worth pointing out, of course, that Fannie and Freddie will be continuing to lend new money, unlike Northern Rocky.
47 - Perhaps Salmond wins on that because macroeconomic policy is reserved to Westminster.
45
When in trouble send for, ‘Socialism.’ Thats why the next Tory government will be an even bigger disaster than the last one. If it had a ssymbol, (like in the US) it would be the, ‘Kipper, two faces no guts’.
45. David Herdson
Agreed. Just a shame (for Unionists) that Thatcher (or rather the successful Scottish Labour campaign against Thatcher) created so much social unrest in Scottish civil society.
The subsequent implementation of devolution is thus a direct result of the 20th century’s least ‘conservative’ Conservative.
36. Make no mistake - the Crosby report will call for billions of pounds of taxpayers money to be sluiced into propping up mortgages on properties with values that are plummeting.
Brown will lap this up and throw this good money after bad. Darling is irrelevant.
Mervyn King is probably the only man who can stop this happening.
52. Already trailled in the times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4710717.ece
If you want to see what a Cameron government will look like, its here.
http://torytroll.blogspot.com/2008/09/red-boris-update-summer-2008.html
Er, they are politicians. Of course they *could* rebel of this supposed display of unity. How many weeks after they were cheering Thatcher on at the 1990 party conference did her Cabinet leave it before they stabbed her in the back? 4? 6?
So, they *could* rebel, but the question, will they?
53. And there lies madness…
The housing market is in dire need of a price correction - trying to re-inflate the bubble now, will lead to unimaginable financial pain in the future.
Brown is desperate to keep the market up, as the edifice of his Economy is propped up by the grand Ponzi scheme that is the property boom.
Who will save us from this ship of fools?
52 - Is it just me or is it predictable that if you get a banker to write a report about a function of banking then it will basically be a begging letter?
56. Nobody. We’re stuck with them, I’m afraid. Still, at least those of us that didn’t vote for them in 2005 can riase our ahnds and say; “Not my fault guv.”
58. Littlejohn might cheer you up..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1053592/Richard-Littlejohn-Spare-sob-story-Gordon-dont-care.html
Suprised Dacre hasn’t been told to sack him yet.
56
I agree, but will Cameron and Co. issue a statement, or put in their manifesto, an absolute guarantee, the the next Tory government will not bale out anybody, or provide taxpayers cash to support the housing market.
60. I hope so.
60 The way Brown is going the IMF will be writing the next governments manifesto
“You wouldn’t know about the main substance of the speech [to CBI Scotland last week] because the narrative is all about Brown’s reverse Midas touch. Even Olympic gold turns to dust in his inept, unlucky hands. Sometimes, it is deserved: the fuel tax climbdown was a classic Team Brown gold medal performance in the foot-shooting discipline. Sometimes it is not: a dodgy microphone in his Birmingham speech yesterday made him sound like Darth Vader. The Nae Luck Award must be particularly galling… “
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/featuresopinon/display.var.2443276.0.Even_if_Brown_cant_win_he_can_still_point_the_way.php
61
Hope in vain!!
Yes Labour is still in denial and the recent activists presentation was poor, in my opinion. The argument was mainly that Gordon is a good guy, Dave is a shallow salesman, and eventually the public will rediscover what a good guy Gordon is. I think that’s what they said, anyway. A number of activists argued that Labour has gone from being over-concerned about presentation to ignoring it entirely - the failure to attack the Cons about further proposed changes to IHT being a case in point. I think the points that we made will get back to the bunker, but I’m not holding my breath.
But Darling is right to say that the recent US bank nationalisations [or "conservertorship" - love that word] will help the UK economy and this might help Gord to hang on.
[I bet that that 90% of pbc's contributors own shares, and that you all have a nice warm feeling about your investments this morning...]
Good question. I think the cabinet still could rebel, but it looks more and more like they don’t have the balls for it.
I watched the Q&A live (staged, artificial, patronising, just the kind of agrandising, abstract pontificating that Brown loves) and the Newsnight report. I think they’d all rather bury their heads in the sand and have 18 months under Brown than do what’s right and risk at most 6 months under their own leadership.
So, a happy enough state of affairs for the Tories. Nailed-on victory in 2010.
64 - Targeted support in a crisis is not inconsistent with general support for free market principles. I would not want an absolute guarantee that no bail outs would be undertaken, it would be counter-productive. I would be happier with the Conservatives saying that they are indisposed to intervention but cannot rule it out in exceptional circumstances.
67
Wow! thats elastic, I’ll bet there’d be an awful lot of, ‘exceptional circumstances’
‘Lord give me chastity, but not just yet!
7 “By any objective account Brown had a good day yesterday”
On the contrary, Jonathan, yesterday in Brum was just another in a long line of increasingly desperate,farcical, and empty gimmicks from Brown which just opens him and his feeble, motley crew to more ridicule.
69
….Never mind what the brothers have been up to in Brighton…
The article is well worth a read.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2070611/darling-enters-the-lions-den.thtml
nuff said…
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/jonah-put-his-curse-in-writing.html
Most of them will have looked at the wreckage of Ivan Lewis’s career and Gordon’s statement about ‘facing adversity’ and realised, if they didn’t know it before, that it will take a volcano under Downing St to get rid of Number 10.
Many of them will be thinking about any possible skeletons in their closet [especially with all the resources of MI5/MI6 at the state's disposal] and thinking ‘The innocent have nothing to fear, but how innocent am I’.
He will make it impossible for them to get rid of him ’surgically’ without doing huge damage to the Labour Party ‘patient’. And what if there was a ‘coup attempt’ but then some major crisis ensued, in which it was politically damaging to criticise the PM ??
Anyone who had gone public might be left ‘hanging in the gale’ as people would feel awkward about sticking up for the ‘rebels’.
This conference is their last chance to dispose of him - if he survives conference week, then he will be their leader come the General Election.
72. Yes - the Cons fought internally but at least there was passion to save the brand. Disinterest seems to be Labour’s malaise - nobody cares enough to save Labour from Gordon.
73, would that Labour had just half of the Tories’ ruthlessness, we would be rid of this gibbering idiot.
Whoops-a-daisy!
‘Labour in membership meltdown’
“I was reliably informed by a reliable informant that the reliable information was that Labour was claiming to have around 13,000 members in Scotland (which means that Labour has fianlly admitted that the SNP is the largest party in Scotland).”
http://calumcashley.blogspot.com/2008/09/labour-in-membership-meltdown.html
If true, it is the first time in our 74 year history that the Scottish National Party has been the largest political party in Scotland in terms of membership. A true milestone.
Indeed, at 13,000 members the Scottish Labour Party cannot be that far ahead of the Tories!! (The Lib Dems are miles and miles behind the Big Three.)
Betfair - next UK GE - Election Date
Jan 2010 or later 1.55
Jul - Dec 2009 5.3
Jan - Jun 2009 6.4
Jul - Dec 2008 26
37. The two GSEs are an object lesson in what happens if you allow an unstable mixture of private and public sectors to coalesce. The GSEs were originally state organisations designed to pump-prime the mortgage market.
Then they became private sector organisations but with an implicit state guarantee that allowed them to borrow more cheaply than real private sector firms, thus dominating the mortgage market - and paying a huge implicit subsidy to the private shareholders. The guarantee also led to them recklessly expanding their balance sheets, creating massive systemic risk for the whole financial system.
Unsurprisingly, this eventually led to a financial crisis as their overexpansion caught up with them. Now they are returning to something like their previous incarnation, but with the promise of eventual runoff.
Personally, I suspect runoff will take a very long time - if indeed it ever happens - as the vested interests in keeping an artificially cheap source of mortgage finance will be too great to overcome. After all, Greenspan warned years ago of the impending disaster at the GSEs but no-one in Washington listened - and that was when the GSEs were providing relatively more expensive finance than they are likely to over the next few years.
41
Pardon me
but I don’t think the Labour Party needs a candidate;
I think they need a knifeman.
Brown became leader without an election. He didn’t have to stand up and make his case along with other candidates. I think his coronation was to the huge detriment of Labour and it would be well not to repeat the mistake.
A leadership election would let candidates demonstrate their qualities to both the Party and the Public.
It would also lend some legitimacy to the leadership and help dampen some of the demand for a General Election that would follow Brown’s defenestration.
What the Labour Party needs is somebody or some group who will ‘do the deed’.
76. For the last 6 months Q3/Q4 2009 has been a shorter price than Q1/Q2 which I find unlikely.
a) Autumn elections are rare
b) If he’s going to wait for economic good news 2010 is more likely
c) An autumn election will bring up the bottled autumn 2007 election - why risk a comparisom.
Its Jan-Jun 2010, only possible outsider is Jan-Jun 2009 if there is a new leader.
That Daily Mail article has the answer to its own question, but ignores it, when it says:
” An insider said: ‘We’ll want to see what Sir James says. If he comes back with something credible that doesn’t expose the taxpayer to too much risk then we would be wrong not to consider it.’
Mr Brown’s supporters hope that the scheme, which has been championed by major lenders, would help revive his political fortunes.
Homebuyers are finding it difficult to find a mortgage because banks are nervous about lending to each other following revelations about worthless ’sub-prime’ loans in America.”
In other words the risks are too high for the banks so they will be passed to the taxpayer. The whole scheme as for Freddie and Fanny, is a bailout of the banking sector not home- owners and wannabe home-owners.
On the subject of Brown he actually said yesterday that it would take 92 years to turn the economy around.
Morning campers.
Firstly bad luck Andy Murray. Federer just awesome last night.
A few quick thoughts on the overnight Rasmussen battleground states polling that was as follows :
Colorado
McCain 46% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 2% .. Nader .. 0%
Florida
McCain 48% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 0% .. Nader .. 2%
Ohio
McCain 51% .. Obama 44% .. Barr 0% .. Nader .. 1%
Pennsylvania
McCain 45% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 1% .. Nader .. 1%
Virginia
McCain 49% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 1% .. Nader .. 1%
I’m a little shocked by McCain’s poor performance in these figure when the polling immediately followed the convention. Add in Rasmussen’s small McCain pro House effect and the numbers are disappointing for the GOP candidate. Even the apparent better Ohio numbers should be looked at from the stance that Rasmussen has over the past three months shown a larger lead for McCain than other pollsters - 6% and 4% most recently.
Two riders - Firstly the samples are small, around 500 and secondly it may be that voters in these battleground states are more insulated from the general hoop-la of conventions as they already receive a deal of attention from the candidates and are almost certainly more atuned to the contest that other voters.
Regardless, we’ll have a better idea next Monday/Tuesday when the states are re-polled and the wash out from the conventions may be safely ignored.
78. And after ‘the deed’ is done, who exactly is going to visit big Buck House to be appointed as Her Maj’s first minister of England (and ex officio “prime minister” of the Yookay)?
ie. Labour need a candidate, not just a ‘knifeman’.
80. I can’t see Sir James or the government proposing the creation of some kind of UK Fannie Mae, in the light of recent events. It would only ‘work’ if it exposed the taxpayer to an enormous level of risk. The budgetary cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout may reach US$200bn on some estimates.
79. It’s May-Jun 2010. Of that I have no doubt.
81.
70 MTF - The Rachel Sylvester article in the Times is particularly interesting.
30, 45 David Herdson - Yes, I think you are spot-on. Incidentally Paddy Power are still offering 11-4 for Brown stepping down as PM in 2009, which looks good value (it was 10-3 a couple of weeks ago). Particularly attractive because it would also cover losing a 2009 GE (2009 is a bit unlikely, admittedly, but it can’t be ruled out). The exact terms of the bet are: “Applies to the year PM Gordon Brown steps down / offers his resignation to the Queen”
79 Ghost - I agree 2010 for the GE is the most likely, but that’s not inconsistent with a leadership change in the second half of 2009. But I don’t think an Autumn 2009 election is that unlikely, following a leadership change. I’d have thought more likely than Jan-Jun 2009.
“When in trouble send for, ‘Socialism.’
That worked really well in Eastern Europe.
27 - so no collapse in the Lib Dem performance, but a decline in the Tories from 2007. So no evidence of the Tories polling 20+% north of the border.
Interesting previous thread from Keiran which I didn’t get a chance to comment on - but surely Obama and the Dems strategy is to do both? Go positive on Obama’s strengths and his ‘new kind of politics’ and negative on McCain’s support for Bush. It’s perfectly possible to do both and much more credible than the GOP claiming to be ‘real change’ or whatever.
Great Murray lost!
Sorry I cannot stand the miserable git! Fedderer is a gent and a nice guy to boot! Miserable Murrey comes across like an 19th Century figure in one of his interviews the otherday.
The biggest Joke was Miliband saying Brown was a man of vision!
Brown’s “vision” extends to do anything in his job. Miliband is a fool, an absolute prat - he has waved goodbye to ever being PM! Labour have also waved goodbye to about 50 - 75 seats they could have kept as well! 
Brown’s “vision” extends to do anything *to keep him* in his job.
88
Well it must have done, otherwise why would GWB have adopted it?
On a more serious note, (Even more serious than the end of capitalism) I see Boris is calling for a big reduction in people, although he doesnt state how!, but its gotta mean more: contraception, abortion, (well we know he’s in favour of that)or perhaps even culling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/09/09/do0901.xml
That stay in China obviously had some affect on him! I wonder what dear ‘ol Cardinal Paddy O’Thick will be saying about that?
Eugenics anyone?
Expenses fiddles and “outraged pitbull owners” are featured in Mudflats’ continuing saga of everyday political life in Alaska:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/
92. Yes reading that article I can only conclude that Boris is calling for a Herod style culling of all babies and children.
Followed up by a “final solution” of camps accross Europe to dispose of the undesirable.
[82] - That Pennsylvania is “in play” is surely bad news for Obama? Where next? Michigan? Wisconsin?
McCain has engineered an amazing “switcheroo” in this race. He went from being the doddery old fool who was paying homage to Bush et al and backsliding on all his previous principles to being the fearless leader of Team Maverick with ass-kicking Palin alongside.
With Biden at his side Obama appears to have surrendered the change mantle. What has he got left?
You have to hand it to the Republicans. They know how to win Presidential elections. They’ve played to their strengths. They’ve covered their weaknesses [Palin as red meat for the evangelical right] without appearing to do so.
Whereas the Democrats were all over the place telling everyone that the choice of Biden “dealt with” the issue of Obama’s lack of experience! Did you hear Republican’s say that the choice of Palin helped them to shore up their base? Of course not, they wouldn’t admit that was the reason.
I’m worried about Obama and the Democrats. I think they’re going to lose the Presidency [again], the third Presidency that they should have won in a row that they would manage to lose. [2000 - economy booming; 2004 - Bush unpopular and failed war leader; 2008 - economy in tatters, Bush v. unpopular]
87. Richard Nabavi - “… Paddy Power are still offering 11-4 for Brown stepping down as PM in 2009, which looks good value (it was 10-3 a couple of weeks ago).”
Here are all the prices in that Paddy Power market:
When will Brown go? - Applies to the year PM Gordon Brown steps down / offers his resignation to the Queen
2010 or later 5/4
2008 11/8
2009 11/4
65. the failure to attack the Cons about further proposed changes to IHT being a case in point -
Problem for Labour is they tried Nicking the Tory proposals on this and made a pig’s ear of it. Attacking the Tories is not going to do much good when Labour have been in Government for nearly 12 years.
92. The case for culling a few gibbering geriatrics seems quite compelling at times.
98 exactly. we should start with europhiles, then socialists, then lib dems………
90, hey, I would’ve been ahead if Murray won!
Although I do think Federer’s a delightful chap.
98. & 92. Let’s not forget that a final solution could create a lot of service industry jobs as well as increasing the amount we recycle.
Yes, yesterday was a good day for Brown and I think we will be pleased. His strategy is to keep his head down, keep ploughing his furrow with boorish persistence and hope that his message that he’s getting on with the job will eventually chime with the electorate. Brown does boring well.
Remember the real unpopularity for the government in the recession in the 1990s came after the economy began to improve when Major had to start increasing taxes and cutting expenditure to correct the huge budget deficit resulting from the slowdown. Brown will not have to face that, this side of the GE.
I still think Brown’s strategy is sound and the 2010 GE will be tighter than currently expected. However, I’m concerned whether Brown has the tactical skill to implement the strategy. Sometimes I suspect he knows what needs to be done, but he just can’t do it.
I know it was a PR stunt but I rather like that the Cabinet met outside of London or Chequers for the first time in years. I think the cabinet should go on tour.
I am not sure it reflects well on pb.com to make such flippant references to the final solution or Hitler. Really bad taste.
I now don’t think that there will be a revolt in the next few weeks (though I’m sure we’ll hear plenty of muttering for as long as Gordon Brown is Prime Minister). I don’t see yesterday’s jolly to Brummagem as making much difference, though. As Sir Humphrey rightly noted, in order to stab someone in the back, you first need to get behind him.
By the way, is that a kipper tie, Des Browne?
92,
“I see Boris is calling for a big reduction in people, although he doesnt state how!, but its gotta mean more: contraception, abortion, (well we know he’s in favour of that)or perhaps even culling.”
From the linked article:
“There was a time when the UN used to champion female emancipation, education, family planning and all the real solutions to the world’s excessive and intolerable population boom.”
And he’s right that whenever female emancipation (especially), education and family planning have caught on in an area, population growth have tailed off. No need for any culling or abortion (although contraception out of your list does make it through)
100. Sorry about “your loss” but I am English not British and I cannot stand murray - He is a cnut who says he likes watching England being defeated.
I will always cheer Murray’s opponent on as Murray forgets that support is a two way thing.
102. How long can they keep journalists at arms length from the PM though - no q&a yesterday - he’s in a hermetically sealed bubble.
90: agree about Murray. He was interviewed after the Q final and looked like his dog had just been run over. Miserable g1t.
Comments upthread: I am appalled at the prospect of a mortage bailout here, and the throwing of good money after bad in an utterly futile atempt to re pump the housing bubble. (WHY would anyone want to do this?? If it genuinely did result in popularity for Brown, we must be the thickest nation on earth)
Tend to agree with coldstone that the tories are very far from from right on this either, although Cameron has made noises about being disinclined to risk taxpayers money on a grand scale.
You cannot buck the market, but the systemic risk of FMx2 going under meant that bailing them out may have been the least worst option, I’m not delighted about it, but i’m sure we don’t hear the full gruesome truth about the level of debt, CDOs etc. Truly grim picture at the moment for the economy. The debt is real.
104. You know us Tories Jonathon - secretly we admire the Austrian - made the trains run on time and kept the tonic fizzy what what ?
108 - And just think what hay Cameron will be able to make of Brown’s inevitable refusal to engage in public debate, come election time…
[92] - As Johnson points out, one of the more effective ways to control population growth is to increase women’s rights, access to contraception, etc. That is worth doing for its own reasons anyway, and that it brings human population under control as well is convenient.
We’re lucky that, with effective contraception, we have a way of controlling population that doesn’t rely on infanticide, as previous societies had to use.
106
Ah Well! there’s goes the Catholic vote: Boris you’ve lost Kilburn!!
Surely this is a wind up?
‘Lance Armstrong reportedly to seek to race in 2009 Tour de France’
http://www.latimes.com/sports/printedition/la-sp-newswire9-2008sep09,0,7175841.story
If Lance managed to even arrive in Paris as lanterne rouge then I would consider getting back in the pool and beginning a campaign to become the greatest Scottish swimmer since David Wilkie.
102 valid point but you must remember that Brown will have to fight a general election in 2010. The spotlight will be on him and Cameron in a way he has never experienced so far. How on earth do Labour think that their chances will improve, whatever the starting point, with 6 weeks of scrutiny of this odious, despicable liar in a general election campaign?
114. Was discredited by the team manager on the BBC this morning. I think Lance has been training with the team - speculation grew from there.
102. The electorate is not dumb - they will know where the tax increases come from whether it is this year or in two years time.
Brown claimed the credit in the good times, when he had actually opposed the policies originally that fixed the economy. He now claims to have nothing to do with the screw up whilst wasting money hand over fist in trying to shore up Labour votes, not the economy. Brown is stupid and a crap politician - people feel over taxed now and they will be aware that further taxation has been defeered.
This is the real difference between 1990 -1992 and now - people feel overtaxed already due to Labour’s policies, in the last recession taxation was not an issue. Labour are doomed - DOOMED and stupid away day gimmicks do nothing to help Labour.
104. Correct. It would help of course if the government didn’t keep borrowing Nazi rhetoric and setting such a bad example.
Isn’t the cabinet meeting in Birmingham simply aping Cameron again, who has been taking the Shadow Cabinet for meetings at various venues around the country?
103. Rob, it would have been a little more convincing if it had been on a Thursday - when the Cabinet really meets - or during the Parliamentary year - when the Cabinet really meets - rather than the recess - when the Cabinet never meets.
If this had been the first in a series - a tour - then it would not have been a gimmick, merely a tactic.
Brown’s a fool to think he can fool us this easily.
102. Fernando, you forget that he has two Budgets to get through before a 2010 election. The pound is already on the slide - limiting any falls in inflation next year in response to oil price reductions. How do you think the currency markets are going to react to the ballooning fiscal deficit if he doesn’t raise taxes or cut spending?
Clearly, the spread markets agree with you that the election will be tighter than the opinion polls suggest - forecasting a Tory majority of about 40, rather than the opinion polls’ 150+ - but, remember, even Blair did not believe there would be a landslide in ‘97. He simply could not buy that the Tories were that unpopular. He was wrong then; I have money on it that you are wrong now.
Martin Kettle writes - “Moreover, in each of the last three general elections national opinion polls 18 months before polling day proved to be good general indicators of the actual result - although in each case they overstated Labour’s eventual share.”
Sounds familiar to anyone..?
Alistair Darling to address the TUC
If I were Darling I would hit the stage in a Ronald McDonald suit- at least he would get a cheap laff or two
114 - I believe it has been denied today by Astana (though I was taken in when Radio 5 announced it as confirmed during the US Open final). With the Tour’s more rigorous attitude towards those who cant prove themselves to be squeaky clean I cant imagine they’d welcome his return.
110. Yes, passanger numbers on public transport will increase as well!
7,13 Jonathon. The meeting in Birmingham was also supposed to be an opportunity to meet and listen to the public. Problem for The Great Loser and his poodles was that no one wanted to talk to them, hence the press reporting of the unnecessary barriers. Suggest you take lessons from Nick Palmer before trying to spin on this site.
102. Brown is undermined by two factors, his underlying unpopularity and his problems with the media. It mainly stems from the failed election last year, months of ramping and backstage interviews led to all the speculation, then Brown decides to call it all off, claim he was never going to have an election and blame the media for the wild speculation. This didn’t go down too well, and has led to them not believing anything the government says anymore.
95 Timothy. Pennsylvania is the only small bright spot for McCain in that set of polls. Even there the bounce is only 3/4 points. As I said earlier wait until next Mondays figures for a more balanced, non convention influenced picture.
The Office for National Statistics said that manufacturing fell by 0.2% between June and July, more than the 0.1% analysts had expected.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7605854.stm
Retailers face their worst conditions in three years with sales falling in five of the last six months, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warns.
Like-for-like sales in August were 1% lower than a year before, the BRC said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7605097.stm
115 Kas, good point. I can see Brown, who isn’t quick on his feet, coming unstuck during the pressure of an election campaign. ..perhaps saying something about his stewardship of the economy which is so wide of the mark that people start to ridicule him and remember all the hubristic speeches in the past. This is why I don’t think he has the tactical skill to implement a sound strategy.
128. Yes, wasn’t Brown unvailing a new manufacturing strategy yesterday - seems that these negative manufacturing output figures would fit in with his jonah grid?
125. There was some footage of Brown et al. ‘talking to the public’ on the beeb, but I suspect the people they were actually talking to were Labour activists and support staff.
121 - He also notes that the polls have been remarkably consistent, a conclusion that would hearten Bob Worcester:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/27/are-the-polls-really-all-over-the-place/
And he also seems to have a problem with logic, stating:
“In Scotland significant gains for the Scottish National party could damage Labour still further, thus boosting the Conservative majority.”
121 - Reminds a little of this
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/13/who-says-polls-this-far-out-arent-good-predictors/
and of this
http://foolishinterruption.blogspot.com/2008/05/theres-always-someone-somewhere-with.html
125 Thanks for the advice jaykay. But as far as I am aware it is still possible to question things and a mix of opinions on this site.
I think the barrier angle was a pretty desperate attempt to get an angle on an event that failed to provide negative meat for the pack. Not spin, just an opinion. If anything it underlines that Brown’s major problem is with the fourth estate.
Come on, it’s good that there is variety on pb.com.
114. bound to be some sort of in-joke misinterpreted - although as far as i can tell, Lance’s life since retirement can be summed up in two words: “i’m bored”
hence continuous press speculation about his future plans
re 27 My calculator at http://www.cabg05071.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Scottish_predictor2011.xls would give
SNP 57 (56 FPTP/ 1 list)
Lab 34 (9/25)
LD 17 (6/11)
C 15 (1/14)
SSP 2 (0/2)
Gr 3 (0/3)
Other 1 (1/0)
If you dicount the Other because of retirements then that seat would go to the SNP as well bringing them up to 58.
136. If the press dislike Brown, it’s hardly surprising.
Property sales plunge to one house a week:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article4713619.ece
136 - It’s not just good, it’s important. The strength of this site is its variety of opinions. Indeed, the usual right wing voices are at their most interesting when they are at variance with each other.
109. the mortgage bailout here is the only thing holding up the US financial sector. it isn’t a good sign, but definitely the least worst option, partly as fannie and freddy were kinda-sorta implicitly guaranteed by the US government. if a similar situation arises here, ruling out any bailout as a matter of principle would be extremely foolish.
be careful also not to confuse propping up the housing market and ensuring mortgage liquidity. one is an attempt to “buck the market”, the other is a sensible step to help would-be buyers get a mortgage - after all they are not to blame in all this.
Next president market on betfair very static today
OB 1.73/1.74
JM 2.42/2.44
£3,918,188 traded.
139. Brown raped the media last year and they will not forgive him!
Brown is very much like Hitler and I cannot believe Brown has started quoting Mein Kampf.
re 79 Autumn elections have only become rarer in recent times, since the last Labour bottler, Callaghan.
Previously 1974, 1964, 1959, 1951, 1935. 1931, 1924, 1923, 1922
Great News!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4710452.ece
144, he hasn’t, as has been stated here before.
Brown’s an unlikeable, incompetent Jonah. There’s no need to make up criticisms when there’s such a rich vein of genuine ones.
144. they have absolutely nothing in common. please don’t be such a pr*ck.
120 - Baskerville: Ha, excellent points! I like the principle but, yeah, very much a PR stunt yesterday.
97. Yes it is worth making the point about IHT because the latest Tory proposals are ludicrously unfair and the people who will benefit have nothing in common with the average citizen.
Read and enjoy Kevin Maguire’s piece here:
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2008/09/my-type-of-tory.html
which is in turn based on a highly indiscreet blog by a certain Mr Richard Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax, a Conservative candidate.
144.: Godwin’s Law, anyone?
148. They have much in common - deluded, like of chocolate, they both liked writing books, both felt that people have failed them rather than the other way round, both got married late in life, both took the credit when it was not of their creating both dismiss failure when it derives from them, both thought they had strategic genuis.
The only thing Brown has not done yet is to shot himself and ask to be burned in a trench outside No. 10!!!
150. Ah yes - the fairest tax of all - what could be fairer than having your already taxed money stolen by the taxman for the crime of dying ?
On this dreek Tueasday morning, below are some gems from NBC’s Olympic coverage that are doing the rounds and a friend in the States e-mailed me.
1. Weightlifting commentator: “This is Gregoriava from Bulgaria . I saw her snatch this morning during her warm up and it was amazing.”
2. Dressage commentator: “This is really a lovely horse and I speak from personal experience since I once mounted her mother.”
3. Paul Hamm, Gymnast: “I owe a lot to my parents, especially my mother and father.”
4. Boxing Analyst: “Sure there have been injuries, and even some deaths in boxing, but none of them really that serious.”
5. Softball announcer: “If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing again.”
6. Basketball analyst: “He dribbles a lot and the opposition doesn’t like it. In fact you can see it all over their faces.”
7. At the rowing medal ceremony: “Ah, isn’t that nice, the wife of the IOC president is hugging the cox of the British crew.”
8. Soccer commentator: “Julian Dicks is everywhere. It’s like they’ve got eleven Dicks on the field.”
9. Tennis commentator: “One of the reasons Andy is playing so well is that, before the final round, his wife takes out his balls and kisses them . . . Oh my God, what have I just said?”
O/T but there was a useful roundup on the Canadian election on Radio 5 at about 3.05am this morning - it’ll probably be available again on the Beeb’s website. I shall be in Canada from 1st-6th and if I gleam any information I’ll let you know.
152 - Knock it off, Martin.
Martin it was I who posted the link to the false claim regarding Brown and Mein Kampf - they guy that wrote the blog posted incorrect statements.
As menioned there are plenty of facts with which to spear Gordon - give this one up.
157. Even the blogger has retracted (sort of)
http://windsor-rightthinking.blogspot.com/
156. & 157. Ok.
re 154 Jack W those are almost as old as you are, and probably apochcryphal. the rowing ones usually refers to the cox being kissed.
159 - Cheers.
159. However on no account give up the Clegg/Taxi meme
142. Any attempt to socialise risk will simply create incentives for reckless lending in the future and saddle the taxpayer with enormous ultimate losses. That’s the lesson the GSEs teach us and to ignore it would be imbecilic.
The problem of ‘liquidity’ is intimately linked to that of credit risk, and can’t be solved in isolation - the failure of massive liquidity injections to bring down interbank premia over the last nine months shows this.
The Bank of England understands this, which is why the SLS scheme leaves credit risk - quite rightly - with the banking sector. The government on the other hand shows no sign whatever of understanding the financial dynamics of the current situation.
Housing must be allowed to correct and the banking sector will have to consolidate and adjust in tandem with this. The best thing the government could do would be to try to cushion the macoreconomic impact of this through loosening fiscal policy - unfortunately they will have no room to do this thanks to their own recklessness over the last decade.
160 Chris A. I can’t account for their authenticity …. but heck what do you want …. blood !!
150. What is indiscreet about Richard Drax’s remarks? He is right - inheritance tax was aimed at breaking up big estates.
But in the case of the Drax estate and many others it has notably failed to do so due to efficient tax planning on their part - leaving the burden to be shouldered instead by rather less wealthy people who don’t know the ropes.
I am not sure that bringing Gaddafi to London is such a good idea, given the alleged state links to that aircraft being brought down over Scotland.
The Times is reporting that an intergovernmental conference will see Gaddafi and Chavez over here. As the oil price is dictated by the market, there is little these leaders can do to change it drmatically. It is not in thier interest to do so either - why pump oil at $100 P/B rather than $105 P/B for instance?
145. If Cameron only gets a small majority in 2010 (seems highly unlikely at the moment, I know) I always thought autumn 2012 might be a good time to hold an election and increase his majority in the after glow of the Olympic games. The chances of that prediction is receading now that it appears the Tories are heading for a big majority.
163. partly agree, although i don’t think there is much danger of reckless lending starting afresh in the current climate.
what course of action do you think the US gov should have taken? i have been led to believe that fannie and freddie failing would have been the first domino in a rather unpleasant financial chain reaction
150 By an odd coincidence, I’m just reading Moonraker, in which one of his relatives features.
167 - I don’t really think there would be a big bounce from the Olympic Games, although I suspect the economic cycle should be at a good point in 2012 (one hopes anyway) which may tempt Cameron.
168. The only entity that may lend recklessly in the current climate is the govt with taxpayers money. This must not be allowed to happen.
165. let’s just say he fulfils a certain stereotype.
his comments certainly aren’t helpful to his front bench who are trying to push the line that they are more in touch with the dreaded “hard working” families etc.
IHT policy is one of the main things stopping me from seriously considering voting for the Conservatives at the next election.
173 The policy could wipe out what is currently rather a lucrative source of income for me.
170. I don’t think it’ll come into it now, because I think its quite ovious Cameron will win a big enough makority to be able to govern comfortably for 4 years. It’ll either be 2009>2013 or 2010>2014, IMO.
168. You don’t understand what I am saying. I’m not opposed to the US government’s action - in fact I would have favoured complete nationalisation, shareholder wipeout, and an early move to runoff.
What I am opposed to is creating bodies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the first place - and certainly in the form they took in recent years whereby private profits were subsidised while the public sector was left with massive risks.
168.
What the US government has done may be a ’socialist’ move but it is intrinsically conservative. Even communists can be conservative, indeed most of them are. They don’t like radicals, hence ice-pick for Trotsky. Gordon Brown is an in-bred conservative in nature, making him more so than fly-by-night opprotunists like Chameleon and Blair.
170. I don’t think it’ll come into it now, because I think its quite obvious Cameron will win a big enough majority to be able to govern comfortably for 4 years. It’ll either be 2009>2013 or 2010>2014, IMO
172. Oh dear - haven’t you learnt from Cameron and Crewe yet? The public couldn’t care less about people being ‘toffs’. Only pathetic chippy lefties do.
173. I actually think that given the current environment i.e Falling House Prices and poor investment returns, the pressure is off IHT reform at the next election. As house prices slide so to does the urgency of IHT reform.
Sure I still think it should be eradicated but I think that for instance a £1,000,000 house now “only” costing £900,000 and likely to drop to £750,000 going on the head of that finanical institutions predictions. The need for such IHT changes as a priority has deminished.
163
The rescue of Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do directly with the mortgage market but more to protect the US $.
One of the largest holders of Fannie and Freddie bonds is the Chinese government. And one of the largest holders of US $ is the Chinese Government.
If the two Fs defaulted on their bonds, where does that leave the US $?
In deep doo doo. Unthinkable.
SO the US Government had no choice: default would have meant melt down for the world’s financial systems and the US $.
180 - It is stupid that the IHT threshold is so similar to the average House Price, as every small change in house prices affects IHT.
Why not allow an exemption for one home that has been owned for more than 5 years, and have a very low threshold for subsequent properties and liquid assets?
No one would then have to sell the family homestead, or move house, because of the death of a relative, and you would focus the IHT on liquid assets and second homes.
182, any way you change the rules can be exploited. In your example, someone could spend all they can buying the biggest possible house to give more inheritance to their kids.
181. Certainly the bondholders have been given unusually preferential treatment, which is a signal in itself. But don’t underestimate the risks on the domestic mortgage front that the US is trying to head off. The agencies’ cost of capital has been rising steadily, pushing up mortgage rates, neutering the impact of the Fed’s monetary easing, and raising the possibility of a further spiral of defaults and losses.
182 - I personally don’t like inheritance tax. It is a thrift penalty charged as a result of a misfortune.
176. yep ok. i don’t know much about the original formation of those two, apart from that one was invented to add “competition”(!)
179. “being a toff” - fine
giving the impression that no.1 priority is tax cuts for one’s own estates - not so good, in any economic climate.
and i’m sure Cameron and co agree. they may want to make these reforms, but his is not the image they are trying to project.
182. True but what if someone has rented all there life and invested money and has stocks and shares or money in the bank? For instance someone who lives in a caravan or even a tent! Some people do things like that!
183 - House bought more than 5 years (or however long) prior to death, or if bought less than 5 years, exemption up to value of house sold prior to purchase.
People cheat the system now. All systems can be cheated. My point is that a principle homestead should be exempted, so that we don’t have the absurdity of people with no liquid assets having to seel their parents’ home to pay tax.
However, beyond that, there should be a very low threshold and a very high tax, as the purpose of IHT is to prevent overturning attempts at basic equality of opportunity. You would massively increase death-bed philanthropy as well.
187. In the interest of “fairness” all their money should be taxed and spent on final salary pensions for council workers.
Don’t you get Nu Labour yet ?
187 - If no property, set separate threshold of liquid assets based on average house price. Once that exemption is made, further liquid assets measured by same threshold as homeowners
188, I disagree with you absolutely. It is not the business of the state to rifle through my wallet once I die, anymore than it is the state’s business to harvest my organs.
186. You still don’t understand, do you? Drax et al. don’t pay inheritance tax unless they have useless accountants. People much further down the scale do.
Off to lunch, back shortly.
182 - It is stupid that the proceeds of income and assets that have in most circumstances already been subjected to tax should be taxed again at the point of death, especially as inheritance tax is easily sidestepped by the very wealthy. It raised £3.3 billion in 2005/06, a small scale amount for the Government. Stamp duty raises roughly twice as much.
It would be better to raise stamp duty on property over time and eliminate inheritance tax. I accept that now is probably not the time to start that.
191 - No different to rifling through your wallet when you’re alive.
Tax is the price you pay for living in a civilised society. Why should anyone have a right to money they didn’t earn?
Will continue laer on I’m sure…
185 The problem with IHT is that the debate is all about Tax and not about what people get for it. What does it pay for?
IMO if there was some link between the tax on estates and the care costs for the elderly who are fortunate/unfortunate enough to have a long old age, it might be easier to stomach.
It’s very easy to critise any tax in isolation. In isolation Income tax is a tax on hard work. But we all need hospitals, schools, roads, defence, etc etc. What is IHT for? Once that is clear, the debate on how much it should be might be easier to resolve.
182 The main problem remains that the seriously wealthy can evade it by hiring tip-top tax advice — for example, George Harrison’s 99 million pound estate was passed safely to his heirs.
By contrast, an elderly widow 100k above the threshold lacks both the means and the financial acumen to avoid it. So, it is the moderately better-off who end up paying it, not the seriously wealthy.
Does anyone expect that multi-millionaire Tony (the murderous liar who we will never forget) and Cherie will be paying INT. I bet they will have expert tax advice and planning so that their estate is safely passed on.
Madasafish - The Chinese have a lot of dollars. They used their dollars to buy bonds in Fannie and Freddie.
If Fannie and Freddie had collapsed the Chinese would have been very pissed off because the bonds would have been worthless and they would no longer have a lot of dollars!
192. have you read his piece? it is what he is saying that is toxic.
whether he has plans in place to avoid tax, or not, is irrelevant. and i know there are plenty of loopholes.
195 - On that thought is a good case for the axing of a lot of the benefits system!
correction: The Chinese would have been very, very pissed off!
188. basic equality of opportunity:
What if an inheritance mean’t someone no longer needed to work and thus enable another to have their job, that would be a good thing would it not? Any investments will have paid tax paid on them anyway, even offshore investments when you bring the money back! - unless put in complicated trusts or high pais accountants are involved.
IHT is a dreadful tax and there is no reason to have it IMO. It hits hardworking Middle Endland Folk hardest.
194. maybe if the two were merged, and inheritance was treated as a simple sale of assets attracting stamp duty, more tax would be collected (in other words, much lower tax, but much less chance of avoiding it).
I don’t think that it’s possible to craft an inheritance or wealth tax that the really wealthy can’t avoid.
199. Yes, and it isn’t ‘toxic’, not even controversial. You are just engaging in wishful thinking.
Initially, Morus, I was supportive of the idea of exempting one’s main residence for IHT purposes, but now, I think it would only inflate house prices, and cause people to buy bigger houses than they needed, in order to take advantage of a tax shelter.
The value of farmland, for example, has been inflated out of all proportion to the income it generates, due to the fact that it is IHT-exempt.
204 Agreed.
The problem with Soaking the Rich is that … if you’re Rich, you can’t be Soaked.
205. I wonder why Cameron has been studiously avoiding this kind of rhetoric like the plague then?
Maybe his success is despite this error on his part, and people really want to be told that tax on £2m estates is the unfairest thing in society. Maybe he is saving it for the election campaign.
204 - And if they couldn’t avoid it, they’d move elsewhere.
196 - You touch on a different problem there, which is whether the elderly should get care costs subsidised or provided for free. My brief answer is no, not if you can afford to pay for it. It’s one thing not to impose a tax on assets at the point of death, it’s another thing entirely for someone to be provided with free services before death that they could have afforded to pay for. I see no reason actively to subsidise the next generation’s inheritance.
206. Correct. Drax is right - the best policy is complete abolition. Exemptions, partial exemptions etc. just create unhealthy distortions and injustices at threshold points.
206. here’s a grand unified solution then: change the tax regime so that the only tax shelter is an investment in subprime loan portfolios, or dodgy derivatives thereof.
211 ed - Brown’s reported to be working on something like that. They’re known as ‘Gilts’.
New SUSA poll for Washington State :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
Note - All polling Friday through Sunday.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7264ba9c-caa0-40cc-a462-b2806a8a809e
208. Well you keep harping on about this non-issue and see how many extra votes it wins you. Answer - zero.
209 I don’t like means tests for eldery care. I know it is expensive, but surely there has to be a better system than the one we have at the moment. I don’t think that it is beyomnd the wit of man to provide real security in your old age.
re 197 pull the other one. An elederly widow with assets of £400k “lacks the means”. It’s as bad as people on here maintaining that a household with an income of £50k is middle income - no it’s not, it’s well off.
I’m no fan of inheritance tax as it’s taxing money twice, and I’d far rather see all these taxes done away with and having a fair level on income tax with far fewer loopholes/reliefs.
New SUSA poll for Oklahoma :
McCain 65% .. Obama 32%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=799f4cf7-1c58-4e43-a0ce-3f714041c1a5
re 215 I’m sorry but if you’re sitting in a house worth £300k then you should sell part of your equity in it to pay for care costs. You have no inherent right to bequeath anything to your descendants. You wouldn’t expect the state to pay for a new car, say, just because you have a valuable asset but little cash.
216 - Assets of £400k doesn’t necessarily imply easy access to cash to pay for the means of avoiding inheritance tax. If your assets are mainly fixed then you can hardly chip out a brick to pay the tax planner.
216 An elderly widow with assets of 400 k might be someone who lives on in the family house (say 3 or 4 bedrooms) in the South of England with a rather modest pension.
My point is that she will pay inheritance tax …. whereas the welathier and financially astute like the Millibands or George Harrison do not.
She lacks the means because (at her age in life) she does not have the tenacity, the disposable income, the experience or the financial nous to pay for tax advice.
195 Well yes, so why should it be confiscated by someone who didn’t earn it!
Is it not the person’s property to do with as they wish (in their will) or is all property theft now?
A low threshold and high rate will be good for the accountants, as more and more people get to the point where it’s worth avoiding it. It would probably be a nice example of the Laffer curve at work though.
215 - Unlike education, which comes at the beginning of our lives, we all have time in our lives to provide for care when we are elderly (which, sadly, most of us are going to need). As the population ages, this is a growing problem.
The Government might wish to stimulate the market in insurance for such costs by offering tax breaks or by making it easier to use equity in property for such costs, but I can see no reason why the Government should encourage us to be grasshoppers rather than ants.
218 Do you believe that someone with 300k should pay for the cost of a heart bypass, chemotherapy, state schooling? Why should elderly care be different?
If there is a time when the state should “be there” for you it is when you are too old to look after yourself. It is such a devestating emotional experience, the last thing you need is to have an inquistion into your finances by officals.
There has to be a better way. Leave the question of cash till after death would be a start. It is an outrage that even people of extreme old age 90+ are given means tests before care is provided.
New Gonzales Research poll for Maryland :
McCain 38% .. Obama 52%
http://www.examiner.com/a-1577412~Gonzales_poll_shows_Obama_ahead_in_Maryland.html
223. Not in Scotland - its free.
According to the Guardian, Labour agree with Mike Smithson on how to attack the Conservatives:
“Labour has decided to attack the Conservatives at the next election as an unreconstructed, dangerous rightwing party that is only masking its true instincts behind slick positioning, according to slides prepared for private briefings by ministers to activists before Labour’s annual conference this month.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/09/labour.conservatives
221. ‘is all property theft now?’
Catholic teaching has long had a strange overlap with Marxist notions. But I note churches are exempt from property taxes of this sort. Why should they be?
226. “They believe in unfettered free markets” - ooh the nasty blighters..
209 216
Any thought that the elderly will get any help to pay for care is pie in the sky.
Demographics - 20% of population over 60 - see it is unfordable.
And the unforeseen impact of restrictions on immigration - no more carers allowed… means it is going to get much more expensive.
Working in care homes is hard and often unpleasant work. Been there, done it. Paid for a parent in one.
The reality of life is that a sensible person with money cashes in their house and spends all the money and then relies on the state to pay for care.. That is what the “system” says you should do financially if you cannot avoid IHT.
How sustained the post-Palin MAC bounce is?
The Gallup/USA Today (9/5-7) (a likely voter sample) had McCain leading 54%-44%.
However, Gallup’s tracker (a registered voter sample) over the SAME period had Mac leading by ‘only’ 5 points, 49% to 44%.
Diageo/Hotline had it tie @ 44%-44%;
and CNN @ 48%-48%.
So clearly, the race has tightened.
The question is: how sustained the post-Palin MAC bounce is?
unafordable = unaffordable.
“The Conservatives remain rightwing and opposed to strong, active government.”
Whereas Labour is fully in support of meddling, illiberal, authoritarian government.
218 Yes, via an insurance based scheme, rather than the mess we have currently
re 219/220 then you should sell all or part of the equity in it to meet those costs if you can’t otherwise.
230 I think, Philippe, the preamble has ended. The election campaign really starts now. I would be looking at the polls about a week hence to guage roughly where we stand, and each succeeding week will give us a better indication.
Polls taken over the Convention period were always likely to be volatile and unreliable. (They were useful though….the lemming like rush to buy McCain brightened up my portfolio!)
Sorry that was for 223, not 218. You have to pay for it one way or another, it’s just the tax and government spend system doesn’t seem to be a very good one
226 Richard, this seems a rerun of the ‘demon eyes’ campaign, which didn’t work in 1997 when the Tory’s tried it.
226. Vote for a right wing party - their recession might be worse than ours ?
237. there is far more ammo available, c.f. Drax comments above
239. Didn’t read 179 then ?
235 - One of the Rothschilds was reputed to have said on his deathbed that he had spent his entire life making people happy, because he sold to them when they were desperate to buy and bought from them when they were desperate to sell.
And I hope the Tories use Labour’s lavishly-produced ad campaign for ID cards as a weapon, too. Why is Brown wasting our money promoting cards which won’t work and aren’t wanted?
239, hmm, stark choice. Personally, I’m agaisnt the corpse-robbing, organ-harvesting party of national pyramid schemes. But then, I’m a rightwinger.
re 220 I’m as much agianst inheritance tax as you are.
226 I was at one of the those briefings. I wonder who leaked that!
236 I wonder why tax-spend fails badly for elderly care when it works pretty well for most other things defence, education, NHS. (I know some Tories don’t like the the NHS, but you have to admit in terms of acute care it does function pretty well without a means test).
Don’t want to get into a debate about the merits of French-style social insurance schemes, just genuinely interested in why elderly care is such a special case. Why should a 95 year old be means tested before they die.
234 “then you should sell all or part of the equity in it to meet those costs if you can’t otherwise.”
An 80 year old widow may not be equal to negotiating the rather complicated world of house-selling, tax advice, estate agents, lawyers and accountants.
re 223 no - because we have a health system funded out of taxation. If people have helath problems then they should get that the same as everyone else. If they need help in dressing, feeding themselves, cleaning the house, shopping etc then those are not medical problems and people should fund it themselves.
Proposed legislation to forcibly remove organs after death is the ultimate ‘inheritance tax’; forcing people to pay for ID cards to prove their identities, identities already verifiable by passports and driving licences, is the ultimate stealth tax.
245 Jonathan “I was at one of the those briefings. I wonder who leaked that!”
Without asking you to be indiscreet or disloyal, do you think it is likely to be an effective approach, and/or an approach popular with activists?
re 246 very true, but she wasn’t always 80.
250. So should unemployed people get no benefits because they weren’t always unemployed ?
Or perhaps pensioners should get no pension as they weren’t always 65+
I like your radical thinking.
245 Tax and spend works for defence (although not under the current government) because there is no alternative - you can’t buy private defence of the realm! Similarly law and order has to be done by the government.
For the NHS it has in the past provided cheap, efficient (in monetary terms) and mostly passable acute care. It now provides expensive, inefficient (in all terms) and mostly passable acute care. Education is a good example of why central planning and funding is a bad idea! Illiteracy is not a good thing. I don’t think elderly care is a special case, other than the fact we should be doing more things privately/via insurance not fewer
245 Plus for health care, and education, and many other things now wdone by the state it forces me to pay for things I don’t want, for eg plastic surgery, fertility treatment, but prevents me buying things I do want - various chemotherapy agents, lucentis (for macular degeneration).
251 - A pension is a good comparison. We give a basic state pension to all, but a higher state pension needs additional contributions and individuals are strongly encouraged to make private provision. We don’t give all 65 year olds the same pension, and people are rewarded for prudent decision-making.
Similarly, plenty of people take out insurance against unemployment when they take out a mortgage.
Care in old age is something that we all know in advance that we are likely to need. We all know that it is costly (if you don’t have devoted family members to look after you). We should be preparing for that time and not assuming that someone else will pick up the tab for us. And if finances don’t allow at that stage, we should be expecting basic not luxury care.
The “LA Times” looks at where Obama and McCain are targetting resources and ambitions in the post convention phase :
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-election9-2008sep09,0,5103883.story
What also needs to be noted about the Tories’ new policy on IHT is that it’s another attack on single people. Married couples will be allowed to inherit £2m! Quite why when a parent’s estate is divided one child should be allowed to get 2m tax free whilst another only 1m is beyond me. Don’t they realise that if someone is part of a couple they have twice the chance of inheriting.
The tories can’t attack racial and religious minorities anymore - they even have a few token ones in senior positions - but they’re still the Party who’ll support the (usually more privileged) majorty, whilst minorities like single people can be discarded. If you think it is the Government’s job to support the privileged majority, vote Tory.
235 — Peter the Punta
My gut feeling now is that Mac is the favorite.
As I posted repetitively over the past weeks, 538.com gives Obama only 33% chances of winning the Elections if he loses OHIO.
Today, both candidates are there, in Ohio:
McCain continues to campaign today with running mate in tow, as he and Sarah Palin follow up yesterday’s rally in Missouri with stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania. At 10:00 a.m. the ticket holds a “McCain Street USA” event in Lebanon, Ohio, before traveling to the Keystone State for a 3:30 p.m. rally at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster.
…
The Republican nominee announced that Palin would be his running mate at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, on August 29, …
It’s no surprise that the Republican ticket is focusing on Ohio, the swing state where the 2004 campaign was decided. …
…
Obama’s not letting McCain have Ohio to himself today. In the morning he’ll visit the Dayton area, stopping in Riverside to deliver what’s being billed as a major speech on education policy. ….
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13181.html
——–
Intrade gives Mac 60% of winning Ohio.
And RCP’s average there is Mac +1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html
re 27 Stuart D I forgot to say as well that of course well within the margion of error for the Green percentage could see them winning no seats or 10.
Good job I checked the name box, as I would have been impersonating stjohn again.
re 251 of course not but a little bit of planning or forethought wouldn’t be beyond anyone.
Would you say that such an 80 year old’s estate shouldn’t go to the Exchequer if she never got round to making a will.
226 - Attacking the Conservatives as a ‘dangerous rightwing party that is only masking its true instincts behind slick positioning’ - surely that description applies to NuLabor?
Labour haven’t got a clue - their mindset is still stuck in the past, a good ten years behind reality.
They’re toast.
256, it’s true Labour don’t support the privileged majority. Indeed, Harman wants to make anti-white and anti-male discrimination legal.
249 I am not commenting on what was supposed to be private, except this is a partial leak.
261. But that is basically the Conservative position. Support for the privileged majority, support the underprivileged by telling them how to behave.
I do wonder how the odd widow/er will feel having to pay inheritence tax when their brothers and sisters do not.
261. I’m thrilled if Labour wants to make itself the party of the minority, myself.
256 But it is the case at the moment that married couples (or can leave £624,000 between them, free of Inheritance Tax, while single people (who aren’t widowed) can only leave £312,000.
The Conservative proposal is to increase those figures to £2m, and £1m respectively.
The marital status of the beneficiary is irrelevant.
136 Jonathon. Apologies for the delay in replying, I’ve been doing my tax return.
Of course diverse opinion are to be welcomed, that’s what makes a good site. The problem is when posters attempt to change the facts to reflect their opinion which is what you are trying to do. Please accept my apologies for you needing to accept “spinning” tuition from Nick Palmer; I see from your subsequent posts that you are both graduates of the same alma mater.
264, it would explain their recent polling.
263, “telling them how to behave”. Unlike Labour, which has legislated for unmitigated freedom of speech and action. Unless you want to protest outside Parliament, obviously.
I will vote for them. Thanks for the advice.
255- Thanks Jack!
For Obama: The idea is to hold on to all of the states that Democrat John F. Kerry won in 2004, then peel off enough traditionally Republican states to put Obama over the top.
… the Obama operation boasts dozens of paid staff and multiple offices in states such as Montana and North Dakota [and Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.]
***
Mac : …the election hinges on several Rust Belt and Upper Midwest states, particularly Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as … Florida.
——
–Voter registration
In Pennsylvania, … registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans by more than 1.1 million, up from 484,000 in 2000.
Republicans enjoyed a registration edge in Nevada and Iowa in the 2000 and 2004 elections. Not anymore.
–North Carolina:
Obama has sent more than 100 paid staff to the state.
… Obama aired more than $1.6 million worth of ads …, compared with none for McCain.
Yet Pollster.com showed McCain with a 3-point edge in North Carolina.
–Montana
Obama is airing TV commercials…
… has opened 17 offices
30 David Herdson
No need to apologise for reproducing such a thoughtful and well balanced post. It makes a change from all the yah/boo stuff that tends to predominate here at times of low betting activity.
You provide clear, logical reasons for your conclusions. They coincide with what I am hearing from my spies. So, let’s just flesh out the betting implications.
Brown isn’t going this year. I never thought he would and I’m more convinced than ever. Today’s thread article gives support to this view, as does his apparent determination to face up to his opponents with a ‘you’ll have to throw me out’ message. You can still get 1/2 with William Hill on him seeing out the year. It’s a gift.
You imply that next year could be more dangerous for Brown. I agree. Summarizing your position, Stuart Dickson (41) pointed out three of the four preconditions for exiting Brown were currently missing –
a. mechanism (TUC?)
b. a candidate (this is the real problem)
c. a spark (Glenrothes or Euros?)
The mechanism is certainly not in place yet, but it could be by next year. The TUC would no doubt want to be in a position to orchestrate the exit by next if there is not a radical improvement in Labour’s prospects.
The Candidate is indeed a problem. If there were an outstanding one, Brown would certainly be on his way by now. Nevertheless there are a number who might plausibly save the Party about 20 or 30 seats if they replaced him and some backbenchers would be grateful enough for that.
Spark? I think you are looking at the Council/Euros next summer. That has to be the last opportunity, both for Brown and his critics in the Party. After that, the Party would simply have no option but to soldier on with him until the election.
What are the odds on him going in 2009 then? I think the lack of a strong alternative gives him hopes of surviving. On balance, I think it more likely than not he will survive but any odds greater than 2/1 about a 2009 departure would appear generous. Currently, Paddy Power are offering 11/4 and William Hill a juicy 7/2. Those who are risk averse can hedge with a bet on 2010 – evens with William Hill and 5/4 with Paddy Power, although the Irish firm is likely to restrict you to small stakes. As an alternative, you might like to take Hills 5/6 on Brown leading Labour into the next election. That covers you against the possibility that he survives it and stays on as Labour Leader. Personally, I don’t regard that as very likely but it’s still quite a good value bet, especially for the cautious punter who wishes to hedge against a bet on the 2009 exit.
Incidentally, you don’t mention election dates but I’m pretty sure a man of your calibre is unlikely to fall prey to the notion that somehow a change of PM must imply a GE very soon thereafter. It’s balderdash. There is no constitutional, moral or practical reason why the new PM should not see out the term for which the Government was elected. With or without Brown, the next GE is almost certain to be in 2010, probably close to the latest possible date. The 1.5 still available on Betfair for this option remains a snip.
154 Julian Dicks retired from professional football nine years ago, and to my knowledge never appeared at an Olympic Games
226. Hmmm, not much of a plan really. Bash the tories is behind the times, as they are now seen in a much better light than at any time since the 80’s. Labour are the one’s disliked and distrusted by the general public, and as such any attempts to smear the tories won’t have much effect. It may get out the core vote a bit more, but other voters will be turned off.
271 Mary H. Perhaps in a commentary capacity ?? …. or perhaps more likely a story that’s got better by the telling !!
Guilty as charged !!
262 Jonathan - Fair enough.
Labour has decided to attack the Conservatives at the next election as an unreconstructed, dangerous rightwing party.
A completly stupid strategy to follow for Labour, it has New Labour - New Danger stamped right through it. What is worse for Labour than New Labour, New Danger was for the Tories: the fact that Labour have lifted policies from the Tories in the past 12 months. The Tories were not lifting Labour policies in the run upto 1997, indeed it was the other way round. You can hardly call someone extreme when you lift there policies! Stupid! The advocates of such a Labour marketing position are pretty dumb as well. It is laughable and amature!
Douglas E. Schoen : all about “who can win over moderates”
Obama’s strategy of targeting the middle is likely to prove more effective than the McCain camp’s courtship of the conservative base.
…
The [Biden] pick helped squelch concerns about Obama’s perceived lack of experience and foreign policy savvy. … it signaled to moderates that when it matters, Obama makes sensible, pragmatic choices.
Obama’s speech at the Democratic convention only fortified his centrist credentials. …Obama used his speech to “spell out exactly what that change would mean” in his administration.
…All of this was underscored by a reminder of the importance of individual responsibility.
…he put forward practical, nondogmatic policies.
Obama’s appeal to independent voters was only helped by McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Still, Obama hardly has the political center sewn up. …
And to win in places like Ohio he must continue his appeals to values voters, fiscal conservatives and independent-minded Republicans.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/09/09/2008-09-09_for_now_barack_obamas_the_man_in_the_mid-1.html?page=1
Jay Cost on Mac’s Convention Speech
McCain did three things:
(a) Reminded us that he’s a maverick;
(b) Told us what the maverick would do if we elect him;
(c) Told us why he’s a maverick.
…
He fights for the country, not for a party, because it was in Hanoi that his country saved him. Country first, party second.
… The president should not speak for a mere faction, but should articulate the true public voice. I don’t know whether McCain can actually do that, but he clearly sees this task as his top priority…
…lines like this are not the things we hear from Republicans:
-“I know some of you have been left behind in the changing economy and it often seems your government hasn’t even noticed. Government assistance for unemployed workers was designed for the economy of the 1950s. That’s going to change on my watch.
-We will prepare them for the jobs of today. We will use our community colleges to help train people for new opportunities in their communities.
-For workers in industries that have been hard hit, we’ll help make up part of the difference in wages between their old job and a temporary, lower paid one while they receive retraining that will help them find secure new employment at a decent wage.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
Current Betfair implied GOP state probabilities, with cumulative EV
s
Wyoming 3 96.8%
Utah 8 96.1%
Oklahoma 15 95.4%
Kansas 21 93.1%
Alaska 24 93.1%
Nebraska 29 93.0%
Idaho 33 92.4%
Kentucky 41 91.0%
Louisiana 50 90.0%
Texas 84 89.8%
Arizona 94 88.7%
Alabama 103 85.0%
Arkansas 109 85.0%
Tennessee 120 84.9%
South Carolina 128 82.4%
Mississippi 134 82.2%
Georgia 149 82.1%
South Dakota 152 77.3%
West Virginia 157 76.7%
North Dakota 160 72.4%
Indiana 171 69.5%
North Carolina 186 68.5%
Missouri 197 64.3%
Montana 200 63.5%
Florida 227 60.9%
Ohio 247 51.4%
Virginia 260 51.2%
—————————————-
Nevada 265 47.2%
Colorado 274 44.2%
New Hampshire 278 42.3%
Michigan 295 33.3%
New Mexico 300 30.7%
Pennsylvania 321 29.2%
Iowa 328 23.4%
Wisconsin 338 22.9%
Minnesota 348 21.2%
Vermont 351 17.5%
Oregon 358 16.5%
Maryland 368 15.0%
New Jersey 383 13.8%
Hawaii 387 12.0%
Illinois 408 9.8%
Maine 412 9.5%
Washington 423 8.6%
New York 454 7.5%
California 509 7.5%
Massachussets 521 7.1%
Rhode Island 525 7.1%
DC 528 6.3%
Connecticut 535 6.2%
Delaware 538 6.1%
Colorado is the pivotal state…
Gallup Poll Daily tracking results : McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents : +15
Holy cow! This is huge, methinks…
…political independents shifting to [Mac] … from 40% pre-convention to 52%…
By contrast, Democrats’ support for McCain rose 5 percentage points over the GOP convention period, from 9% to 14%, while Republicans’ …support stayed about the same.
…first time since Gallup began tracking voters’ general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates.
Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48% of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46%, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.
…the slim group of … those with no political leanings to either major party … grew more favorable to McCain by an even larger amount over the past week or so. McCain was preferred over Obama by 20% of pure independents in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 29-31. In the latest three-day rolling average, from Sept. 5-7, he is favored by 39% of non-leaning independents, a 19-point increase. (Nearly 40% of pure independents remain undecided.)
——-
Gallup Poll Daily tracking results from Sept. 5-7, 2008, and Aug. 29-31, 2008, are each based on interviews with 2,733 registered voters. For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx
re 253 unfortunately the state does require PCTs to pay for Lucentis, and a complete waste of money it is too. Rather than being seen as a climbdown for NICE and a great day for patients, it is in fact a disaster for patients, including those with macular degeneration. Avastin is a far, far cheaper drug (over 10 times cheaper) which works equally as well, but the drug company (the same one which makes Lucentis) won’t licence it for macular degeneration (it only has a licence for bowel cancer). They’re not stupid because, of course, if they did then they wouldn’t sell any Lucentis.
It’s a pity that NICE and PCTs get it in the neck for their decisions, but no-one ever complains about the profiteering of drug comapnies.
278 — So I guess I’ll go value-bet on Mac winning Ohio then…
279 -
Independents now prefer Mac over Obama 52% to 37%
257: Philippe You are right that 538.com gives Obama only 33% chances of winning the Elections if he loses OHIO. But it gives McCain only a 1.36% of winning the Elections if HE loses OHIO. Assume McCain has a 60% chance of winning OHIO.
Then Obama’s chance of winning the Election overall is:
60% x 33% (if he loses OHIO)
plus 40% x 98.64% (if he wins OHIO).
That is about 60% chance overall of Obama winning the Election overall.
MCCain to be POTUS!
Obama ground into the dust!
JM still 2.4+ on betfair.
Punters not convinced !
282 Phillipe. May I suggest you wait until next weeks polling for McCain orgasm take off …. otherwise old chap you’ll have a connery !!
gallup looks like an outlier when compared to every other pollster
286, surely coronary?:p
279 - Except in the other polls where he isn’t.
Ohio and Florida have flipped in importance, it is Florida more than Ohio that can deliver the election. Colorado is too, but it doesn’t deliver as much.
286 — Jack, \
Far from “orgasming” (?) — I was only specifying the poll numbers!
Thanks for your concern anyway.
286 MD. Scots un-rhyming slang.
283 - Barnesian, in one of yesterday’s posts on 538 they pointed out that, with Florida, Ohio becomes less important. The Kerry base states minus Michigan and New Hampshire plus Iowa, New Mexico and Florida equals 270 EV.
“4. Our model does not yet have enough data to conclude that Florida and Ohio have flipped positions in terms of their relative favorability to Barack Obama, although my hunch is that things may be headed that way. But here’s something interesting about Florida. In the pre-convention period, we had concluded that there were 243 electoral votes that were essentially fairly safe for Barack Obama in a close election. Those are the Kerry states, minus Michigan and New Hampshire, but plus Iowa and New Mexico. A total of 243 electoral votes leaves him 27 shy of the 270 he needs to win a majority. How many electoral votes is Florida worth? 27. The potential utility of Florida for Obama is that he could afford to lose Ohio and Michigan (as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgina etc.) and still have a winning map by bringing home his “safe” states. Of course, some states that appeared to be safe before, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, may no longer be in the post-convention environment. ”
Still a crazy system where so many states and votes don’t count though.
291, ah, forgive my McIgnorance:p
283. Which roughly matches McCain’s 44.2% of winning Colorado, the pivotal state…
No, no it’s the opposite of demon eyes. Philip Gould has argued the the Tory ‘New Labour, New Danger’ attack line was wrong because it legitimised the view that Labour was indeed ‘New’ under Tony Blair. He believed that the Tories would have done better in 97 if they’d have stuck to the attack line that behind Blair there were still the sorts of far left views which had cost the party in the past.
Separating Cameron’s rhetoric from the reality of his party is entirely the right strategy in my opinion.
Let’s do a poll – David Cameron claims to believe that man made climate change is real and the government should do something about it – how many Tory posters on here agree?
294 Rod. In that projection Nevada not Colorado is critical as it takes Obama to the 269 away goals win tie.
Frank Luntz did a focus group that was very unflattering for Palin.
She may be garnering attention, but I would still say odds on Obama.
295 - How many Tory posters on here have any influence in Tory policy, any influence with Cameron or any influence period?
292 — Thanks Paul, for a very useful quote.
Guess who’s in Florida this week?
“After someone in the audience yelled, “Tell us about Palin,” Mrs. Clinton replied: “I don’t think that’s what this election is about. Anybody who believes that the Republicans, whoever they are, can fix the mess they created probably believes that the iceberg could have saved the Titanic.”
Mrs. Clinton told the predominantly white female audience of about 2,000 in Tampa that central Florida was “the battleground of the battleground state.” She argued in her 22-minute speech there that Mr. Obama offered better plans on health care and equal pay for women than did the McCain-Palin ticket.
Earlier, in Kissimmee, at a community event on the economy, she asserted that the Republicans proposed few if any positive domestic policies during their convention in St. Paul.
“I didn’t see that from Senator McCain and Governor Palin,” Mrs. Clinton said in one of only a handful of explicit references to Ms. Palin on Monday. “I saw more of the same.””
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/us/politics/09clinton.html?ref=politics
298 295
I think 295 reads Heffer in the Telegraph and has his wires crossed:-)
295. How many labour members believe in locking up more criminals? how many labour members believe that private companies should have more of a role in healthcare?
it works both ways and green issues aren’t really a primary concern for the majority of voters
295. strongly agree.
the direction for Lab seems clear cut - they are running out of alternatives. certainly the idea of campaigning on their economic record is rapidly running out of steam.
297 — Any link, Mistah Booth?
300. So has Hillary given up on her dream to be President, or is she giving Obama just enough support so she is an acceptable candidate for 2012.
296. This is from McCain’s perspective. Obama winning Nevada would leave McCain on 260 (winning Virginia), with Obama on 278.
certainly the idea of campaigning on their economic record is rapidly running out of steam.
He’s learning - He’s Learning! 
296 - Did I miss the memo where odds laid by British betters suddenly became the gold standard of US election prediction?
304.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnV1pS7qVD8
305 - She sure as hell doesn’t want a woman on the winning ticket for the first time.
280. I know avastin would be the better option, and the drug company aren’t exactly behaving like angels there (though are behaving entirely rationally). Given that though, there was a period of (I think) at least a couple of years where people were going blind unneccessarily because the government/NHS decided that their compulsory purchase of healthcare would not include lucentis.
Tax funded services are essentially the state making you buy services whether you want them or not - different people will make different decisions. With the anti cancer drugs some people will want to pay the money and have 6-12 months of extra life. Others will want to spend the money on something else (or leave it to their children if Morus allows it) Currently the state takes that choice from you.
302. that is true but i don’t believe the Cons would currently be wise to pursue that line of attack at present.
298. none - but they do neatly demonstrate that plenty of Con supporters and voters are at odds with the leadership on a lot of issues. the party is choosing to gloss over this until the next election, trying to keep the spotlight on government failings.
the other option would be to bring it to a head with favourable resolution before then (a la clause 4), i don’t see much appetite for this.
295, that’s a valid question. The problem with that approach is that green issues will absolutely not matter in the grand scheme of the next general election.
Matters like education, health and the economy are not Labour strong points. Personality is even worse. Cameron is neutral or vaguely likeable, Brown, Balls and Harman are terrible.
The government’s buggered up the economy, and now it’s going to get a kicking.
303. Yes - the core vote strategy is rubbish but all they have left. It’s about preventing total meltdown and getting less than 200 seats now - there is no longer any prospect of winning, as Labour cabinet ministers openly acknowledge.
Intrade moving towards McCain again, and it can’t be today’s Rasmussen, which is 48-48. Other polls released?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 48% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Yes, Jan:
Gallup : Independents now prefer Mac over Obama 52% to 37%
Regarding Mike’s article: if such a “stunt” is all it takes to buy Gordon a few more months, it doesn’t seem as though it will be too difficult for Brown to keep buying himself time, in this way or that, in order to make it to the next election. His task becomes increasingly easier as time goes on because of the natural resistance within the party to changing leaders as the next election looms ever nearer. Some unexpected turn of events or scandal directly implicating Brown is always possible, but seems unlikely. Barring that, where will these spineless plotters find their spines?
That leaves only the possibility that he will walk away, and I believe Mike has suggested that he eventually will walk away pre-election for the good of the party. But if Brown is as deluded as he appears to be, perhaps he thinks that if only he holds on and hopes against hope, perhaps the people really will rally to him at the last moment, seeing what frauds those nasty Tories are, and give him an astounding electoral triumph a la Major or Schroeder. That being the case, why throw away his career and hopes for future glory prematurely (i.e., pre-election)?
317. That’s seismic, if correct, isn’t it? So much for Palin putting off the centre ground….
316 - Which means that Obama led on yesterday’s sample. Gallup should still be strongly for McCain, by up to 4% as yesterday and the day before’s results were strong for him.
317 Yeah, but that is not really news, has been known for hours, and really just a subsample of Gallup, meaning that he does well among independents, but less well among Democrats. It’s the headline figures that really matteres, although this development is interesting, but not found to the same extend in other polls. Just as ABC poll showing huge gains among women is not found in other polls. Thus both effects can be statistical noise.
318, the thing is, deep down Labour don’t want to get rid of him. They’ll look more for excuses to stay execution than opportunities to sharpen the axe.
If I were in charge of Labour party strategy, I would be stressing the lack of content of the Conservative party offering: “where’s the beef?”
I don’t think that Labour should be talking about itself at the moment at all - partly because it’s in such bad shape and partly because the public is sick to death of hearing how the Government is making the “hard choices”. However, it’s entirely legitimate to make the same point negatively, and this is what I would focus on if I were a Labour strategist. I would be categorising the Conservatives as “hazy”, “vapid”, “superficial”, “non-committal” and so on - a blank canvas onto which the public are projecting their wishes, most of whom are sure to be disappointed. It is noteworthy that when Labour were toying with “not flash, just Gordon”, which was essentially that message, they were riding high in the polls. It is equally noteworthy that John McCain is doing strikingly well in unpromising circumstances in part by attacking Barack Obama’s “celebrity”.
I don’t think that an all-out assault of “same old Tories” will take hold without the public first being prepared to look critically at what they are currently saying (which is not much - fair enough when you’re 20% ahead in the polls). It would also pressure the Tories into making more measurable commitments, and then more meaningful attacks could be made.
315. Rumours of possible financing worries for Obama perhaps? Definitely one to watch when his Sep numbers come out as he has a huge campaign cost base to cover, and unlike McCain last year won’t have much time to restructure.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/us/politics/09donate.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Lembit hits the road !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7605353.stm
317 - Keeping repeating it doesn’t make it true for anything other than the Gallup tracker, it’s misleading information at best.
Look at the Fox results last night and see how wrong that is in many states.
Obama seems doomed - DOOMED!
The Race, Muslim and sleaze issues are coming back to haunt him.
311 What, Gasman, is irrational about the behavior of the company?
It exists to maximise the profits of its shareholders. It is not obliged to maximise benefit to consumers. That is where the Government comes in. Needless to say, that’s where the arguments begin.
Chris A is right though in one important respect though. Critcisms of the Government and its Agencies far exceeds that of the drug companies.
Maybe it’s because the Government doesn’t do as good a job as the Companies. Or maybe it’s that the Companies have better PR and advertising.
What do you think?
320 - n.b. the Gallup projection is if the daily result is the same as Rasmussen, it may not be.
325.
Lembit comes across as a real cock-end at times!
No doubt he is avoiding the metors as he weaves his way across the city.
313. no, that’s not a problem with the approach, its an attack on the specific example.
there are all too many issues _at_present_ where Con policy is apparently at variance with what might be expected of a Con voter’s views. of course, there is plenty of time yet for things to change (including those expectations).
‘The Race, Muslim and sleaze issues are coming back to haunt him.’
Yep, he’ll certainly regret his choice to be black and stereotyped as a Muslim now!!! Very perceptive Martin (!) but hindsight is 20/20!!!
324. Well if Obama does have money problems at least that will furnish another excuse for the Dems failing yet again to capture the White House…
314. it doesn’t look much like a core vote strategy.
324 caveman. I doubt it. Team Obama have been very tight lipped about finance to enhance impact. Also you’ll recall the WSJ piece that “sourced” a report of a poor Obama month in May that turned out to be $20M inaccurate.
BTW my fag packet calculation would indicate that Obama “won” yesterdays Rasmussen tracker in the range of 50/45.
328. nothing, that is why the mixture of public and private healthcare provision can be so explosively dangerous if not managed very carefully. the incentives are all wrong, and the result is rubbish for everyone.
328 PtP if you read my post you’ll see I said they were behaving entirely RATIONALLY. If I was a shareholder (I’m not) they’re doing what I’d want them to do.
From NRO
Interesting wrinkle in this story:
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=45368908-18FE-70B2-A8438BCB26DBEFFD
” Despite what appears to be a shrinking lead, Obama aides argued that they maintain a strong position in the race.
The Obama camp is counting on holding all the states won by Kerry in 2004. The campaign also expressed confidence in its ability to flip Iowa and New Mexico, two states that went for Bush in the last election.
If Obama won all those states, they’d have 264 electoral votes. The remaining six needed for a win, said Plouffe, could come from a victory in Colorado, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, or Nebraska.”
What’s missing from that list?
Ohio.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
Asteroids, Martin.
Meteors are smaller, as the deceased Professor Ernst Opik (distinguished astronomer, father of Lembit) would have known.
322 Agreed. If they got rid of him they’d have to face their own unpopularity and share some of the blame.
333. Its such a shame the Dems didn’t pick the pure unsullied Mrs Clinton.
This attack strategy of Labour’s might pose a way forward for the Conservatives, in that they can launch a whole raft of policies at conference in a few weeks - when the limelight is strongest on them - and if (or when) Labour steal some (or all) of them, their line of attack becomes extremely blunted. If the Conservatives are so evil, why would you want their policies?
270.”Spark? I think you are looking at the Council/Euros next summer. That has to be the last opportunity, both for Brown and his critics in the Party. After that, the Party would simply have no option but to soldier on with him until the election.”
PtP, I just don’t see Gordon Brown being there to concede victory to David Cameron at the next GE. He has not looked that far ahead yet.
280″It’s a pity that NICE and PCTs get it in the neck for their decisions, but no-one ever complains about the profiteering of drug comapnies.”
Agree with that point to a certain extent ChrisA. Times have not changed, way back in Thatcher’s time, trying to tackle/question the sheer size of the pharmaceutical bill in the NHS became the usual narrative that the government were being tight rather than the drug companies being greedy.
342. If I were Cameron I wouldn’t announce much right now. No need. Keep the hard focus on Labour and the soft focus on him…but then he is braver than me.
325.
“Lembit hits the road !”
I thought you were referring to Lembit’s plans to become president of the Liberal Democrats this year. Any LDs got any odds on his chances of beating Baroness Liz Scott?
O/T Sir Iain Blair gets his revenge in early
Tarique Ghaffur, Britain’s most senior Asian police officer, has been relieved of his duty by the Metropolitan Police, the Daily Telegraph can disclose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2711267/Tarique-Ghaffur-relieved-of-duties-at-Scotland-Yard.html
343. Maybe the NHS should launch is own drug production and research firm - I’m sure it would be a huge success.
OT. Did anyne hear Russell Brand’s awful TV ‘joke’ comparing GeeDubbya and ‘retards’? A great insult to people with Learning Disabilities. Brand wants locking up.
337 My apologies, Gasman. Yes, you did.
I hope however the mistake does not distract from the point I was trying to make about the dilemmas faced by those on both the government and corporate sides.
308: ukpaul
The same analysis, but based on fivethreeeight.com poll-based probability estimates, again shows Colorado to be the swing state. If states come in in order of probability, then McCain needs to get Colorado. According to the polls, he has a 39% chance of this. That is my current best estimate of McCain winning. His expected Electoral Votes (in the statistical sense) is currently 246.
By comparing my poll-based list with Rod’s Betfair implied probability list, you can see where the individual value bets are on a state by state basis.
State Cum Prob Cum
EV McCain Exp EV
OK 7 100% 7.0
UT 12 100% 12.0
ID 16 100% 16.0
WY 19 100% 19.0
AL 28 99% 27.9
TN 39 99% 38.8
KY 47 99% 46.7
KS 53 99% 52.7
LA 62 98% 61.5
MS 68 98% 67.4
NE 73 98% 72.3
AR 79 97% 78.1
AK 82 96% 81.0
SC 90 94% 88.5
AZ 100 94% 97.9
TX 134 93% 129.5
GA 149 90% 143.0
WV 154 86% 147.3
SD 157 85% 149.9
MO 168 82% 158.9
IN 179 81% 167.8
ND 182 80% 170.2
NC 197 75% 181.4
FL 224 66% 199.3
MT 227 63% 201.1
NV 232 58% 204.0
OH 252 57% 215.4
VA 265 54% 222.5
CO 274 39% 226.0
NH 278 34% 227.3
MI 295 32% 232.8
NM 300 15% 233.5
PA 321 14% 236.5
OR 328 12% 237.3
IA 335 11% 238.1
WI 345 10% 239.1
MN 355 10% 240.1
NJ 370 9% 241.4
DE 373 8% 241.7
WA 384 8% 242.5
MA 396 3% 242.9
ME 400 3% 243.0
MD 410 3% 243.3
CA 465 3% 245.0
CT 472 2% 245.1
IL 493 2% 245.5
RI 497 1% 245.6
NY 528 1% 245.9
HI 532 1% 245.9
VT 535 0% 245.9
DC 538 0% 245.9
312 - Any sufficiently large organisation will have differences between the head and the tail so to speak.
Monitor Article - Gordon admits he needs to change policies. What a shock, i wonder how he came to that conclusion?
Meanwhile its eyes down at 4.30 for Darlings roasting at the TUC.
Marc Ambinder reporting that Obama has reversed his position on 527’s assisting his campaign :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/quietly_obama_campaign_flashes.php
Off topic, but there’s an original contribution to the Palin discussion here:
http://www.michaelpalinforpresident.com
350 - Good work, thank!
“BTW my fag packet calculation would indicate that Obama “won” yesterdays Rasmussen tracker in the range of 50/45.”
My calculation says an Obama +3,4 or 5 as the range.
36. Of course the Mail wants a mortgage market bailout - after all, the Daily Mail is the in-house bible for Britains army of But To Let muppets - sorry “investors”
what sort of gallup poll for today would we expect to see if obama has been up by a similar margin yesterday with them?
354.
Bet he’s never pretended to be his grandson’s mom!
323.”If I were in charge of Labour party strategy, I would be stressing the lack of content of the Conservative party offering: “where’s the beef?””
That might have worked over the last 3 years, but it won’t be effective now. The last year was crucial for the government and they blew it in that respect. They did not produce a vision or any big and effective policies which could be competently implemented and sold as a success at GE time.
Brown and Labour also gave the Conservatives valuable breathing space to keep delaying any further big policy announcements like IHT until nearer a GE. Seriously, Cameron and Osborne must be pinching themselves at the inept way that the government has behaved and the way it has aided the Conservative re branding.
356. I imagine it would want the bailout extended to its myriad readers in Spain, too.
Revealing comment from Purnell as part of this attack on the Tory’s hidden agenda.
“Labour disagrees. Without government help, children born poor will never have a fair chance in life.”
Really. I accept that government can have a role but what about the family, the Churches, schools, charities and the wider community rather than the state. In many ways Purnell’s remark says more about why Labour is failing and why Cameron’s social agenda is so relevant.
358 - Come to think of it, that would have made quite a good Monty Python sketch.
333. He’ll only have himself to blame having turned down $80m in public financing.
335. Jack, I’m sure he’ll raise a large enough amount for Aug, but it’s just as important where it’s all going. I don’t know what your day job is but mine is as an FD and these figures look scary.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/07/the_obama_campaigns_out_of_con_1.asp
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/07/obamas_out_of_control_spending.asp
I think your post at 353 with the reversal of 527’s is an interesting development in the light of these reports.
361 He would probably regard their roles as being less important than that of government.
Mac Chances of Winning Co
350. –>How come only 39%?
Pollster’s average is virtually 45%-45%
http://www.pollster.com/polls/co/08-co-pres-ge-mvo.php
538.com gives Mac
RCP’s average is also more or less 45 / 45
Intrade is 51 Obama / 49 Mac
538.com gives Mac 39%… indeed!
364, mind you, don’t forget Harman reckons a father is some sort of optional extra, and divorce is ‘good for choice’. Bloody insane they are.
358 Has that been proved or is it just a lousy attempt to throw mud regardless of the fact that most of it will hit a member of her family?
I know the story - that noone noticed she was pregnant until she was seven months. Presumably then they noticed at eight and nine.
Anyone noticed how many times “fair” or “fairness” have popped up this week in the mumblings of Brown? I spy a “theme” for conference.
Brown promising to change policy is a little scary, really.
His moral compass seems to have been left in the other suit’s pocket, so what is to guide him now? His own treatise on how to rip off the state and the taxpayer which has been gathering dust for a few years? Or will it be a Ballsian concoction of anti-toff measures?
Or will he simply cut out the middleman and order another review and ask Cameron to lead it? But I am not sure CCHQ are set up for that sort of consultancy work.
Bad news for McCain as Ron Paul will be on the Montana ballot. IIRC Paul outpolled McCain in the state by a couple of points :
http://www.helenair.com/articles/2008/09/09/top/65st_080909_paul.txt
361. at no point in the history of Britain have the factors you mention done even close to enough to give those born into a poor family a fair chance in life (and when i say fair i don’t mean equal, just some sort of decent chance of success given talent and hard work). so he is just stating a truism.
there is no reason to believe that is likely to change anytime soon.
372 John Major did exceptionally well to become PM then.
292. It looks like Florida has tightened considerably since the Biden pick (although the RCP average doesn’t really show it yet). Another poll like the Ramussen and Mason-Dixon ones, and that state would really be in play.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
Also, for those who are interested - the Toronto Star’s special election site is now up:
http://www.thestar.com/election
367.”364, mind you, don’t forget Harman reckons a father is some sort of optional extra, and divorce is ‘good for choice’. Bloody insane they are.”
That is why Harman would be a very bad choice for next leader of the Labour party if they are hoping to turn their electoral fortunes around. Polly Toynbee’s article today in the Guardian is a joy to read, it goes along way to explaining why the women at the top of the Labour party don’t reflect true woman’s lib in politics.
373, aye, don’t forget Prescott was held back by failing his 11+. Never got over it. Presumably he thinks he would’ve been PM or King if he’d passed it.
278 RodCrosby, 350 Barnesian:
Very helpful, thank you, because from a betting point of view, the US election has a number of interesting possible angles beyond just who will win (spread-bet on electoral college votes, bet/lay blocks of electoral college or state votes on Betfair, plus bets on individual states).
363 caveman. We’ll just have to wait for the numbers but remember once Obama was formally nominated all his maxed out donors can shell out a further $2,300 each. Additionally there’s no doubt he’ll far outstrip the $80M in federal funding in a two month period to the election.
re 328 PtP well drug companies marketing departments are legendary in their prowess, and they frequently employ marketing people at the very earliest stage in drug development and licensing decisions. They probably run rings around any civil servant too.
The solution in this case is to remove the entirely artificial boundary which prevents NICE from looking at unlicensed products. Additionally, the DoH itself, rather than the drug company, put pay to get Avastin licensed for macular degeneration - the problem there being that the company has all the data, but they could get around that by organising their own trials.
372 - I have lost track of the number of times growing up that I was told life wasn’t fair.
274 Jack P. There’s a PPP poll for Florida due either today or tomorrow.
What we need is another BUTT. I’m glad Jack W’s here to cut through all the fog of these conflicting polls.
372. Quite. And surely only left wing parties run by people with real experience of being poor like Tony Blair, Harriet Harman, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne can change this.
375. Prescott’s rise suggests it’s abundantly possible not only for someone from a humble background to rise to the top, but that such a person need not have any ability or intellect either.
What a fair society we do indeed live in.
I’m on the verge of a crisis of confidence about the Obama campaign, for the first time in this election. I have always believed he would win, and I still do, but there seems to be a bit of “ungluing” that has begun to coalesce post-convention. Why is he having so much trouble reaching his fund-raising goals? Why is he himself (not merely his campaign) going so negative against McCain and, even more particularly, Palin?
Here is an article describing Obama’s remarkable words at a campaign appearance in Michigan:
He said Palin has an interesting biography — “Mother, governor, moose shooter. That’s cool” he said — but the election should be about who can change people’s lives for the better. He said that won’t come from a Republican ticket that almost always supports the same positions as President Bush even though they say they will bring reform.
“I mean, you can’t just make stuff up,” Obama said of a new McCain ad that says Palin “stopped the Bridge to Nowhere.” “You can’t just recreate yourself. You can’t just reinvent yourself. The American people aren’t stupid.”
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/09/obama-accuses-maverick/
First, the negativity, particularly that directed at Palin. Why do this? More images of Obama “beating up” on a woman. How will the PUMA’s like this sort of thing, which already touches a raw spot for them?
Then the “Mother, governor, moose shooter. That’s cool” comment. “Moose shooter?” “That’s cool?” If this really is his campaign persona, he’s going to have a tougher time winning this election than I thought. Who is he trying to criticize? Hunters? Again, specters of his San Francisco speech. The whole tone is rather childish too, and doesn’t do much to enhance his presidential credibility.
Why he is implicating himself directly in this negativity and attacks on Palin in particular is beyond me. He should be emphasizing his positive vision and his strongest issues, not launching attacks like this himself. Is this Obama under strain, an Obama we haven’t seen yet in this campaign? If so, he better get his act back together and find a direction before the image he has so carefully crafted throughout his career melts away and leaves people without a reason to vote for him.
372 Being born poor, with two good parents, is surely preferable to being born rich, with two bad parents?
381. Thanks Jack. Do you think Florida is genuinely in play?
Also do we have any indication of how Obama and Biden are splitting the campaigning workload? At the minute Obama seems to be spending all his time in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Indiana - two of which should be safely in his column, and the other two of which seem likely to go for McCain at the end of the day.
383. i’m not saying that at all, just pointing out that what he said is obvious fact.
384. LOL! That is indeed so.
383. What about Brown? Man of the Manse? Lord of it more like. Dad in a secure high status job. Guaranteed roof over his head and food on the table etc.
Strange definition of hard done by for the daughter of someone who grew up on a widow’s pit pension - whose family took in a neighbour’s daughter, because she was worse off than them!
Not saying he should be critisised for his upbringing - just critisised for his manipulatoive efforts to make a story out of it.
369 Millsy ‘Anyone noticed how many times “fair” or “fairness” have popped up this week in the mumblings of Brown? I spy a “theme” for conference.’
Absolutely, that is definitely what Labour will go for. What a gift to Cameron! You can just see the election posters:
‘Jane Smith. Single Mum. Fined £100 because her toddler dropped an apple core. Labour isn’t fair. Vote Conservative’
‘Joe Blogs. Plumber. Fined £100 for smoking in his own van. Labour isn’t fair. Vote Conservative”
‘Bill Bloggs. Pensioner. Fined £100 for not closing his rubbish bin. Labour isn’t fair. Vote Conservative”
‘Sue Davies. Five kids to take to school. Latest car tax: £420. Labour isn’t fair. Vote Conservative”
[Memo to CGHQ: I can do more of these!]
386, no no, you’re entirely wrong. Only a leftwing government matters to poor children. Parenting, extended family, proper schooling, all these are outmoded bourgeois concepts used to oppress the proletariat.
384. Prescott was an extremely talented trade unionist.
350. The current Betfair mathematical expectation is McCain 245.5
What do you make of this Barnesian?
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=621701
375 Personally, I’d say the family was far, far more important however poor. The state can redistribute money but it can’t create the loving environment, the mutual support and the willingness to make sacrifices for the next generation that a family is able to do.
390. I think the problem for Brown is that he cannot relate to anyone, from whatever background they come. And the same applies in reverse as well - no-one (lord or lewd) can relate to him.
393. Good at getting people to stick their hands up in car parks, was he? Very good - I’m all for the recognition of each individual’s particular talents.
Prescott is underrated by Tories. Quite intelligent esp. in the early days. Also thing he has been pretty effective since he’s left the DPM job, which is a nightmare position.
393 And an extremely talented lover. Women seem to find him irresistible.
153 from previous thread- Obama is more likely to win Connecticut than DC? This does not compute…
395 At the risk of sounding like Meg Ryan, Yes!Yes!Yes!
384 This is the wrong conclusion.
For Prescott to start where he did and to get where he got, he must be clever, able, cunning and intellectually curious.
His oafish exterior is as much a posture as Dubya’s folksiness or Blair’s sincerity. In politics, it helps if smart people underestimate you.
397 They all though he was asking who wanted another cup of tea and a biscuit.
402. I’m not convinced. His behaviour seems to confirm he is indeed an oaf - but of course oafs deserve a fair chance in society, too.
385. Stars and Stripes - I seem to remember you’re posting from the US. Have you got any first hand evidence from friends/families/colleagues that there’s been much impact from conventions, or are we looking at a straight forward bounce?
A quick request. If any other posters are currently in the US I for one would find it useful to get a view on the ground, however limited, as the view from the UK has to go through the usual media channels.
OT. I see Jeremiah Wright is back in the news again.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09092008/news/nationalnews/o_pastor_in_sex_scandal_128142.htm
390 373
My mother was brought up as the daughter of an unemployed Somerset butcher who was so poor she had no shoes. (literally : I have a picture of her in about 1921).
When we are talking fairness: life is not fair. We may have equal opportunities or not but we all have different background and drives.
I am afraid fairness or it’s lack - is an excuse for failure..
After all it is not fair that Tony Blair went to Fettes or Polly T is descended from nobility or Tony Benn was a hereditary peer…
Brown pledges to rethink policy:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7606374.stm
He said global and domestic pressures had changed and there was a “need to forge a new kind of government”.
Yes, Gordon. It’s called “the Conservatives”.
ARG today has Obama up by 1, against 6 last week. The race seems to be stabilising. The question is whether McCain will be slightly ahead next week, as I believe, even, or back to Obama slightly ahead. I see little chance now of anybody getting a 5+ advantage before the first debate.
402.True, but sheer dump luck [being the right oaf, shouting the right abuse. on the right picket line] helps aswell.
400. There’s only 0.1% difference in the probability, so it’s hardly significant. Based on current Betfair odds, see 278, above. It may well change back to a more “sensible” ranking…
405. SaS probably the worst person here you could ask for an objective view of whats going on
382 Chris A. New ARSE (BUTT) projection in the morning.
387 Jack P. It maybe that Florida 08 will be a repeat of Kerry 04 where even to polling day he flattered to deceive and then lost by five points. Also it’s a state where McCain is better organized than most.
That said the registration figures for Obama are impressive and the polls tight (see above) and Obama’s operation in the state is impressive, even in the pan handle. Hillary is also spending two days in the state presently.
At this stage Florida is in play, it may not remain so and currently McCain retains an edge.
As for Biden and Obama campaigning I’m sure the camp has the issue well mapped out and it’s important that they solidify the base in the rust belt states.
385. Maybe I’m in a minority of one, but I actually thought Barry’s “that’s cool” speech resonated. Obama’s tone has been quite balanced on Sarah’s input to the race – he has been gracious in his recognition of that Palin has given the GOP a shot in the arm, but also said, “hang on, what’s this change her and Macca are on about? What change?”
I think it’s quite neat negative campaigning. I’m pretty much alone among my centre-left brethren that I think sometimes negging is necessary. I think it’s perfectly valid to point out your opponents weaknesses and hypocrisies. I just think it’s part of a campaign. Most lefties think that an election campaign should be all vision and hope and fluffy bunnies: that’s a big part of it, but you do have to get your hands dirty sometimes too.
386. depends what you mean by “better”? i know plenty of examples of both.
some of the rich kids with terrible parents do actually fulfil the stereotype by easily graduating from tearaway public school bullies to become guards officers and investment bankers.
407 Gordon Brown: “What I ask of our country, our government, and our party, cannot be done without leadership.
“So, at conference in Manchester and in the weeks that follow, I will
(a) set out how I - and our party, and our government, and our country - must rise to conquer those challenges and to ensure fairness for all; or
(b) go into a massive hissy-fit, then sulk and only when the destruction of Labour is certain, resign.”
So - which will it be?
405- And contrast Obama’s strange remarks with Hillary Clinton’s more politically astute commentary:
“It is a great accomplishment,” Clinton said of Palin’s selection as the GOP’s first female running mate. Clinton told a rally of 500 that the election will be decided on issues, not the historical significance of the candidates, and Democrat Barack Obama and his running mate Joe Biden bring more to the table than the Republican ticket.
“Women as well as men make their decisions after they weigh the evidence,” Clinton said. “As Americans go into that voting booth, what they have to ask themselves is not so much who am I for, as who is for me? And I don’t think it’s an even close question that we have the ticket that is going to do the best job in restoring the American promise.”
About the most she’d say about Palin is that she and Republican presidential candidate John McCain “are not the change that we need.”
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080908/D932RNEO0.html
For the first time, I have to give some credit to those who thought Hillary might actually make the better general election candidate. At least on Palin, her political instincts seem to be much better than Obama’s. Of course, this is only one example, but instructive nonetheless.
Caveman, I am in the U.S. (New York, to be exact). This is an exceedingly poor vantage point for getting views from the ground since New York is not a swing state and New Yorkers are far from represenative of the vital center. But that said, I can say that it isn’t the conventions per se that have had an impact; it is more the Palin pick, and the reaction to it, that have been the lasting image of the conventions. VP’s rarely matter in U.S. presidential elections, but the Palin pick seems to have had a lot of side effects, such as the ferocious media reaction against her and the Obama campaign’s mediocre handling of her choice (see Obama quotes above). This has opened an opportunity for McCain to positively rebrand his candidacy and leave Obama flat-footed, but it is too soon to say if the consequences will last until November.
408 Link to ARG poll. Sampling post GOP convention :
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
Sky: Bush announces 8,000 troop withdrawal from Iraq by February…
386.”372 Being born poor, with two good parents, is surely preferable to being born rich, with two bad parents?”
A fact the Labour party have yet to grasp Sean.
390.SallyC, it has always amazed me that people like Polly&Co try and peddle Brown’s upbringing as being anything other than comfortable middle class.
338-Nebraska? Really clutching at straws!
Interesting to see the Obamaites seem to be conceding Ohio already - one week into Spetember, and focussing on Florida. If Florida polls do not stack up (and only one, rogue?, has given them a slimmer of hope) it could become a find-me-another-state situation. Why not Kansas, it was mentioned at least once in the spring.
It seems Obama may have had a wobbly few days. They clearly seemed phased by the McCain “bounce”. If they don’t get a grip soon, they could end up going the way of the Duke!
As for Biden? He’s been totally relegated. It’s clear Palin seems to have reenergized McCain’s campaign.
Hope to have another UPMYASS tomorrow.
392, I remember what ‘proper schooling’ meant under the Tories. Lessons in leaky porter cabins, ten year out-of-date text books shared one between three…
Obviously decent school facilities are a left-plot to strangle the life out of capitalism.
From Conservatives.com:
Brown’s Big Apology
Mr. Brown has said he will use his speech at the Labour Party Conference to say sorry for everything he’s done wrong since he became Prime Minister. And with a lot to apologise for, he could be speaking for a long, long time.
Brown’s Big Apology is due to take place on Tuesday 23rd September - and we’ll be publishing one reason for him to say sorry every day up to then.
411. Oh I don’t know - I could think of a few other candidates for that particular accolade.
413 Was it in doubt on here that lefties get their hands dirty when campaigning?
The problem is that the left live by the myth that, as ‘nice’ people, their raison d’etre is to stop all those nasty right-wingers - which they can’t play out properly if they are nasty too.
422 Nice of the Tories to promote Brown’s speech. Have the Tories ever apologized for the myriad of cock ups that happened on their watch? No. “Je ne regrette rien” was about as good as it got. Not sure this is Osbourne’s finest move. Good Stuff.
Prescott has always been terribly underestimated. in some ways he is a terrible politician, but it is easy to forget that he has
* made it, the hard way - which does require determination, skill, and luck, whatever else you think about him
* the common man’s touch in a way that no natural politician has. he did things that normal people would do (or like to think they would be able to do), with little thought of the (usually disastrous) political consequences. two examples: punching someone when they threw an egg at him; shagging his far more attractive secretary
Nevada moves closes to tipping on Betfair, McCain 49.7%…
422 - I don’t know to whom the credit should be given, but the Conservatives have really got their act together.
421-I never shared books one between three.
428 Glad everyone’s happy. (Well except the Lib Dems who will be having their little shindig in the run up to the big speech). They’re having a torrid time aren’t they.
Your print-out-and-keep guide to the Canadian battleground:
http://www.elections.ca/pas/39ge/39official.pdf
429, well I certainly did, as did most people at my school - a comprehensive I attended between 90 and 95. I’m not saying it hasn’t got it’s share of problems still, but I know from my family members that the school facilities have improved beyond all recognition.
420. I for one would like to see more of Joe Biden. Mike Smithson’s earlier characterisation of him as a US “John Prescott” seemed spot on.
Jake Tapper’s blog with ABC has an ongoing spot listing his best bits on the campaign trail.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/oh-that-joe-n-5.html#comments
On a flight to Kalispell, Mont., Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., was asked by a reporter, “Do you still believe in a tripartite solution to Iraq?”
His answer lasted 13 minutes, 20 seconds.
421. Obviously decent school facilities are a left-plot to strangle the life out of capitalism.
by Dave H September 9th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
No. They are there to put a gloss on the falling standards.
Our current PM had a very high quality education in dilapidated buildings. His successors do not have it so good. Poor school. Nice new building though.
Labour always think that spending money is the only thing that works.
***NEW THREAD***
434.”Our current PM had a very high quality education in dilapidated buildings. His successors do not have it so good. Poor school. Nice new building though.”
On the money with that assessment SallyC.
434. that isn’t very insightful
424. Probably a lot of truth in that one Sally.
426, adultery’s a virtue now? Mister Prescott certainly doesn’t hold that view.
421 Not to mention having to eat hot gravel at lunchtime.
425. John Major did say he was sorry.
Put it on billboards all over the country.
Don’t you remember?
As for publishing what Brown says, his political opponents are the only ones still listening and I am sure they feel more than capable of ripping it apart.
439 I thought he did. He’s Mr. Lover Lover.
440. Luxury.
439. Indeed it is - and sexual harassment as well, no doubt. That’s what real men do, apparently.
434, so are you really saying that school facilities make no difference to educational standards then? As John O’Farrell once put it ‘strangely enough, the problem of chronic underfunding was one you could solve by just by throwing money at it.’
In your view, what exactly is the government doing wrong in respect of standards, and what would El Dave do differently?
445. Everything.
445. apparently it is enough to claim that standards are slipping and that extra spending is by definition a waste.
no need to engage with the realities of the state school system - aren’t everyone’s kids at private school anyway?
445&447. Gordon and Tony preferred to concentrate on the increased tractor figures rather than the quality of the product coming out of their factories.
@421 - I remember that schooling well, I also remember that my time under that schooling was under a Labour Government…………