Will this be another boost for McCain?
September 9th, 2008
Should foreigners just keep out?
A new poll for the BBC World Service poll shows that in all 22 countries surveyed, people wanted Obama to be the next President rather than McCain. The Democratic nominee was preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled.
But is this exactly the sort of thing that will do Obama harm? We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio setting out why they thought Kerry was the man. The reaction was exactly the opposite of what the paper intended.
This is getting onto dangerous territory.
Live odds from the full range of White House race markets.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No
Probably will help McCain. What the hell is the BBC doing messing about with this anyway?
I saw their polling also found 66% of people apparently in favour of allowing the government to harvest organs without permission. We’re supposed to assume the government owns our corpses, and have to let them now if we’d prefer not to be dismembered after death.
No
Most potential World Service listeners in US aren’t McCain supporters I guess.
2. It’s only possible because of the special way the BBC is funded.
5, well, quite. It doesn’t help that it’s leftwing and London-centric. I wouldn’t mind if it weren’t paid for by the taxpayer, but it is.
As usual with these questions the answer is no. I would say it will make no difference, perhaps even slightly favour Obama. A recent visit to the US to my GOP in-laws, told me how they are worried about how the world sees them. The myth that Americans, whether DEM or GOP, don’t give a stuff how others see them is exactly that, a myth.
I took part in the Guardian exercise in 2004.
Me and my Ohio correspondent are still pen pals, after he said my letter confirmed his trend towards Kerry….note I didn’t convert but confirmed.
But I think generally the Guarfdian thing had a negative effect.
4 Are you surprised given the way the BBC has reported the election process?
6 Left wing ? My arse. They’re drooling all over Cameron.
This poll is unlikely to be repoted in the US, the guardian intervention backfired big time.
The US is very different to most countires in that it is probably the most socially conservative and right wing econmically country on the planet. Certainly it is in terms of large countries with democracy.
i think compared to the guardian thing in 2004 this is nothing
whos bright idea was it in 2004 to do that?
9. Justin Webb was sychophantic to McCain/Pailin at the RNC. I almost vomited in disgust.
8. Fair play tim, what did you say to him in points - please not the whole letter!
12….er the Guardian
Well, it’ll do him no harm. The fact that quite a lot of highly intelligent foreigners believe Americans to be inbred hicks who are stupid enough to believe in Christianity, the nation state, and private enterprise has been a big vote-getter for Republicans.
13. I am surprised you say that about Webb! I think I saw him in Liberal Hampstead arounf 1998! If he was a real rightwinger he would live in Kensington or Chealsea! He was on his way to work as it was 8Am in the morning - unless he had pulled!
14.
Economic deficit awful.
US has a big role to play in the world but not one of an emperor.
Cheney or Edwards…he really liked Edwards but was only OK with Kerry.
BTW Despite his affair, I still think Edwards was the real deal.
17 He’s an ex-Tory Reform Group member without ever being a Tory Party member.
8. There’s a big difference between telling someone how to vote, and saying which Potus you’d prefer. Why shouldn’t other countries express a preference for the most powerful man on Earth?
12. I don’t know what got into them (well, they are the Guardian, after all….)… but they tend to do crazy desperate leftist stuff near an election. Like the 2004 exercise. Or using the whole of G2 as a hysterical hatchet job on Boris Johnson the day before the London elections (worse than anything Murdoch has ever done on election day, including the Kinnock front page).
Can’t wait to see what they do in 2010.
18. Fair play! I thought of writing too because I didn’t want Bush re-elected - Couldn’t be bothered and i only look at the Grunard occasionally but on one occasion i saw the intitiative. Funily enough in 2000 I was inclined to Bush over Gore but Kerry was my choice in 2004!
New SUSA poll for North Carolina :
McCain 58% .. Obama 38%.
Note - This may get my prize for the crapiest poll of the campaign.
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065
On thread, I don’t think it will make a jot of difference either way. I doubt Americans really vote on their international reputation.
20 - Well quite. Especially since US President’s usually style themselves “Leader of the Free World”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2713150/Gordon-Brown-backs-Barack-Obama-for-US-president.html
The kiss of death !!! Coupled with Russell Brand’s intervention at the MTV Video Awards, this isn’t a good night for Barack Obama…
Dow down 280 pts.
22 Kerry your choice ?
At last we agree on something.
Martin, break out the champagne
23 That poll is just so unreal its laughable.
19. Tory Reform Group - thought they were pretty moderate like Simon Burns MP: the Tory Democrat?
Just out of interest Tim would you vote for Burns if you lived in west Chelmsford - I would
Seems Russel Brand does speak for the world after all, lol. Though not for me, I am clearly one of the international ‘minority’ who wants McCain to win.
28. Indeed in 2004 he was! Whenever I watch the film War of the Worlds, there is a soldier very close to the end who reminds me of Kerry! It’s the point where cruise realises the “tripods” are vulnerable because the birds are pecking at it!
29 - Er no.
Burns may vote Democrat in the US if he could but that is mostly because he is a personal friend of John Kerry. He is distinctly right wing on most issues, a stance I do not share.
Also because I personally know the LD candidate.
31 I know the one you mean. Good film.
one = soldier.
30. No, I switched from wanting a Dem. to a republican POTOS when McCain won his parties nomination and Obama won his! HRC may well have seen me rooting for the Dems but Obama is crap at electionering other than speeches.
Mike …show some party loyalty for once on this site. Put Clegg in the header.
29. I struggle with your politics Martin. can I ask who do you vote for normally? Who would you vote for if you were in the US?
21. Sorry, but I just had to post it again. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t coming from a so-called ‘reputable’ left-leaning paper:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
Compared to trying to overcome the support of Brown? Nothing.
Gatting ahead of the MSM, NBC/WSJ poll tonight.
Obama 46
McCain 45
Unconfirmed as yet.
33. He does look like him! Glad you agree - still think Kerry would have been better! He is a top bloke and I think would have been a far, far better POYUS than Bush!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/09/palins-daily-allowance-practices-unusual-among-female-governors/
Bizarre that the GOP bias Fox is going for this. Could develop, this one.
36 - Tim, maybe the mast is only for people who will be in power after the next election?
19 That’s hardly surprising, with a TRG member. Although the organisation is now a shadow of its former self, back in the Seventies and Eighties it existed to make the case for socialism within the Conservative Party.
43 and he has had 20 yrs or so in the BBC. that must have had some effect.
39. The polls seem to be all over the place at the moment!
44 He’d have been totally brainwashed. Like the Manchurian Candidate.
37. Everytime Tory! Despite my doubts in 2005 & 2001 (the lattor had personal reasons - the former I did not like the platform)!
In the US. more difficult! This time McCain, 2004 Kerry, 2000 Bush, 1996 Dole, 1992, Dole before that does not really matter!
In 2006 I would have voted Democrat! I am a funny b*gger! But broadly I would be Tory here and Republican in the US - although I would flip to the Dems in some elections!
45 - Unconfirmed, as I say.
43. Nice history. The TRG really is an extraordinary organisation when you think about it, very pro-Euro, much more so than many ostensibly pro-Euro types in Labour. Very few MPs are in it now.
Had breakfast with Damien Green once, the former shadow education sec. Lovely bloke.
LOL - BBC poll favours Obama - I’m so surprised. GB supports Obama - poor Barack what has he done to deserve this?:)
Yes.
And this poll is already being picked up in the US…especially by the right, which appreciates how helpful it is.
If you doubt this, just think how you would react to such a poll before a UK election. Your reaction would be “butt out”. More than that, I think you would become less likely to vote for the candidate outsiders were “pushing” on you.
Obama already suffers from being regarded as disturbingly cosmopolitan; this plays straight into that meme.
Ironically, I bet the BBC bigwigs behind the poll imagine they are helping “their” candidate. If only they ever visited parts of America beyond the east coast, they would realise the opposite is true.
47. Fair enough. Thanks.
This poll was on the US news wires this afternoon and I reported it then.
However, more good news for McCain is the fact that Brown has publicly backed Obama in his article for the Parliamentary Monitor. Unprecedented for a prime minister so close to the US elections.
Jonah strikes again!
I’ve been running them both together here:
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/bbc-poll-says-world-wants-obama.html
51 Their candidate..
51. I wouldn’t think “butt out” at all. If all of Europe wanted Cameron in, it would make me think a lot better of him in fact. As I say above, what’s wrong with people in other countries taking an interest and expressing a preference? It’s flattering in fact. Telling people to vote, a la the Guardian however, is not on at all.
I suspect it might anger insular rednecks who would only vote GOP anyway. Could be wrong though, who knows?!
49 I think that all pressure groups have a shelf-life. The TRG existed to oppose Thatcher’s economic policies (some of its members were actually very hawkish on defence, Northern Ireland, and (ironically enough) Europe (eg Sir Peter Tapsell). The Freedom Association existed to oppose the trade unions in the Seventies (and completely succeeded); the Monday Club existed to oppose mass immigration, and at one stage, had about 40 MPs.
But they’re all really not very relevant now, and probably the best thing would be to wind them up, and start afresh.
We all recall the Guardian’s crazy exercise in 2004 when readers were encouraged to send emails to voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio setting out why they thought Kerry was the man. The reaction was exactly the opposite of what the paper intended.
My A-Level Law brain tells me that the word “intended” is defined in terms of what is “reasonably foreseeable”. Therefore it was not, in fact, the “opposite” of what was “intended”.
If there were such an opinion poll about the internal politics of, say, the DPRK, then the people of the DPRK would quite rightly tell the world to mind its own business. The difference is of course that the DPRK does mind its own business, whereas the USA goes all over the world interfering, invading, bombing, sanctioning, blockading, threatening, extracting, exploiting and generally being imperialistic.
O/T
As expected/rumored, Lance Armstrong has confirmed that he will try to reclaim the 2009 Tour De France. I’ve had some money on (and hence caused a shortening of prices!) but there is still 16-1 available at sportingbet.com. If he does make the lineup, that 16-1 may well look massive in 9 months time! I can see him starting even money favourite.
Chris Trinder
kickingbets.blogspot.com
P.S. It will go up on my blog tonight!
53. Brown hasn’t endorsed Obama if you read the actual article. He’s merely endorsed one Obama policy. Torygraph spin, they were short of news today.
47. sorry 1992, Bush.
LOL
Can McCain get the Guardian to send letters to GOP voters again urging them to think about the babies in Southern Africa…!
55 Yes, but if British Conservatives knew that well-meaning foreigners believed that everyone who voted Conservative was a moron, we’d realise how helpful such outside intervention could be for us.
59. Cornerstone are still going strong. Anachronistic nutters in my view, although their high priest Edward Leigh can rattle off a soundbite.
“The difference is of course that the DPRK does mind its own business,”
Apart from murdering South Korean cabinet ministers, or kidnapping Japanese.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/09/palins-daily-allowance-practices-unusual-among-female-governors/
posted again.
59
Thats enough for the Jonah effect
42 So why is Cameron in it ?
63 Cornerstone could be stronger than they imagine if they recruited non-MPs as members. There is plainly a lot of space for a right wing Conservative pressure group.
And Brown ?
Lehman Brothers crashing and burning (down 45% on the day) brings the Dow Jones down 280 points - gives up all the “good news bounce” after the rescue of Freddie and Fannie.
Rather more important to the outcome in November than a BBC survey, I think…
63. Leigh is an idoit - every Tory including me thinks he is a cnut! The bloke has no idea, apart from his own perverted views.
Hague and Osborne will be the real power. Cameron is just the slightly plweasant front for some real nasties behind.
71 Martin we agree again
Whatever next ?
The polls are all over the place but the big question is when is Obama going to get the narrative back? Ever?
New Rasmussen poll for Montana :
McCain 53% .. Obama 42%
Note - Sampled yesterday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election
Night night everyone. Need a cuppa after delivering 400 LD newspapers tonight.
71 Whether you agree with him or not, he’s plainly not an idiot.
67. Because Cameron or Brown were likely PM’s when it was put up. Whoever the LD leader was, they might at best be king makers! At that time with Tories and Labour on 40% plus, there would be few LD’s in autumn of 2007.
77. In political terms - yes he is! His program is a path to defeat.
61 My favourite was the one from Richard Dawkins pointing out to the ignorant yanks that Bush was a moron, but a cunning and deceitful moron, but they had a chance to redeem themselves by voting for Kerry.
900 posts so far on a day when Nothing Much Happened. I dread to think what it is going to be like when Party Conferences and Presidential debates collide!!
80 - The Guardian learned nothing from this as their hysteria earlier in the year proved.
On the same subject, Ken has been losing all goodwill gained with his dignified speech on the night with his ridiculous newspaper columns since (and taking a job from Chavez).
82
You should listen to him drone on, on LBC on Saturday mornings , its enough to stop Londoners voting for him ever again.
72. Hague - good. Osborne - dubious. I don’t know if there are any betting markets available but I think there is a real divergence of opinion on Cameron. Once he becomes PM will he be a ‘Blair in blue’ safe, middle of the road, do not much PM expected by some or a ‘great reforming, 2 fingers to the EU, agent of change’ expected by others? Right now he has to keep his powder dry. I personally suspect he is alot more Palinesque than he comes over.
On topic - anything coming out the BBC can only help McCain.
This will be interesting - a Ron Paul run as an Independent? It could really hurt McCain in a tight race. Keep on top of this tomorrow, 3.00pm BST, oh betting ones:
“ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA – Congressman Ron Paul will hold a press conference in the Ball Room at the National Press Club on Wednesday, September 10th at 10:00 am. Dr. Paul will announce his intentions for the fall presidential election and will be accompanied by several special guests.
This event comes on the heels of Dr. Paul’s historic three-day Rally for the Republic in Minneapolis, Minnesota that drew over 12,000 supporters.”
70 - well put! There was a very neat symmetry about that Dow move erasing all of yesterday’s bounce. A lot of the denial people out in force like Dick Bove, that man lives on another planet.
Tim - LOL - you are right, if the header only had pictures of people who stood a chance of being PM there would only be Cameron!!!
Can’t remember which thread it was, but i hope you all took my tip for ELBOW to win the Mercury Music Prize tonight
85. ron jeremy may have more of an impact!
72. I really really really hope so, however, we Tories might be lumbered with a cuckoo like Blair.
aha
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/22/psp-glasgow-poll-had-no-certainty-to-vote-question/
post 62
*smug*
68.”There is plainly a lot of space for a right wing Conservative pressure group.”
The whole Conservative party felt like a right wing pressure group until 2005, I don’t know about there being a lot of space, but they certainly can produce a lot of hot air.
From the Orlando Sentinel…
A new Public Policy poll has John McCain extending his lead over Barack Obama to a 50-45 margin in Florida, up from a three-point McCain edge last month. The pollsters say McCain’s lead is mostly due to white voters shifting from “undecided” to “pro-McCain,” with McCain now garnering 61 percent of the white vote to 34 percent for Obama. The Democrat is keeping it within range by dominating with black voters (88-10) and winning with Hispanics (49-42), a margin he’ll likely need to improve if he plans to carry the state.
And like voters everywhere else, Floridians are wild about Sarah Palin, with 45% saying they are now more likely to vote for McCain because of his Veep choice, while just 36% say the same of Obama for his pick of Joe Biden.
91 - Kudos to you, charlie. Earlier today someone on popbitch was stating as a fact that Radiohead had won.
61. The utter irony of course, is that America has never before funded to such a level as it does now in regards to food and foreign aid to Africa as it has done under Bush. I dont think Bush has ever found a problem he doesnt believe throwing money at wont solve.
To quote Saint Bob of Geldof:
“George W. Bush has done more to help Africa than other U.S. presidents”
Bush may believe in low taxation, but he is the biggest spending, big government President the US has ever had.
94. yep, im a member of a radiohead forum (sad) and i heard a big rumour that radiohead had won as well.
96 - Personally, I would have chosen the Robert Plant/Alison Krauss album, but that might reflect my age. British Sea Power would have been my second choice.
I’d have gone for Last Shadow Puppets but maybe that reflects MY age
is this spin to put the Ruskies in a bad light or what?? Who is spinning what story against whom?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/andrew_porter/blog/2008/09/09/david_miliband_fourletter_abuse_from_russian_foreign_minister
A note on the SUSA (Suspiciously Useless Sampling Analysis) “poll” of North Carolina.
According to the internals McCain is winning 60% of the vote in the Charlotte area of the state. The demographics of the area are approx AA 35%, Latino 13% and Asians 4%. Thus projecting the normal voting trends of these groups would indicate that no …. that is Nil, Zilch, None, Zero white votes for Obama …. indeed some white voters went for McCain twice !!
It will of course make Obama’s odds for the state more juicy !!
Tactics, tactics, tactics and no strategy. Jeremy Paxman hits it on the nail.
The Union boss on Newsnight was on a different planet.
Jack W: we love you, and we suspect you *may* even be right that Obama will win.
But you’re beginning to sound, how to put it, a little partisan.
Only one thing is clear about this race… that it is going to be very, very close.
(PS, for those that think that HRC would be miles ahead of McCain… dream on…)
What is Ron Paul doing?
He certainly seemed to be having a great time at his events last week.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/ron_pauls_secret_event.php
According to Newsnight one Union Leader has spoken to them and said that Brown’s speech to them tonight was the ‘most vacuous’ he had ever heard.
Add to that Denham who just showed himself to be utterly clueless apparantly Labour are dealing with the issues that face people in this country and not only that are looking to prevent a credit crunch ever happening again and tey are only unpopular because of some sort of knee jerk reaction by voters - a rather protracted knee jerk it would seem given that they have been f*cked since the Liar in Chief called off the election
100 Are those demographics for all inhabitants, or likely voters? As the London Mayoralty showed (sorry to go back to it, but it’s the closest we have in demographic terms to a US election) there’s a significant difference between the two.
bbc news:-
“Brown pledge to ‘rethink’ policy”
the only rethinking Brown needs to consider is his career! lol
Quick. COunt Palin’s fingers. Apparently she is from Norwich (a good few generations back)
85 Surely, he’ll likely damage Barr.
Russell Brand called Bush a retard the other night at the MTV gig, it didn’t go down well.
I remember the Guardian campaign when it urged readers to write to US voters which backfired totally. And then there was the ‘Vote Ken cos Boris is a Nazi’ piece by Zoe Williams which also backfired.
Off topic
There was another home repo auction today in London, prices hitting fresh lows IMHO.
109, Neither is at all intelligent.
John Denham on Newnight a few minutes still trotting out the line that Brown is the only leader capable of getting us through the economic crisis, that the public want Brown and co to “get on the with job” etc… etc….
Same old same old. It really does seem that these people genuinely have nothing to say or offer. Just the same old glib platitudes and nonsense. Frankly its getting beyond boring now. When is something going to happen to shake things up?
102 robert. Of course I’m partisan for an Obama win …. I’ve the odd shilling riding on this horse.
However I’m trying to remain impartial in the reporting of polls and their failings especially when we rightly place such importance on them …. and on that theme, here’s an interesting article from Huffpo on pollsters changing party Id sampling in recent polls and whether they accurately reflect recent Democratic Party gains and the wider electorate :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html
102- robert- I have always said that Obama will win easily, and have not seen anything yet to change my mind, and have bet accordingly,and I have a pretty damn good record of political betting.
110. Russell Brand is clearly very intelligent. Whether or not you like him, is another issue.
114 What I mean is that neither argument is intelligent.
OT markets
Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares sank almost 45 percent on Tuesday on concern that talks about a possible investment from Korea Development Bank had broken down and that the fourth-largest Wall Street investment bank would be unable to raise needed capital.
105 Sean F. It’s even worse than I indicated. NC is a state that registers votes by demographic groups. In 04 AA turnout was 26% against a demo of 21%. Frankly that SUSA poll is an embarrassment to the company.
112 Broadly speaking, the pollsters have no vested interest in getting it wrong. I’m always sceptical of arguments from non-pollsters (unless they’re Anthony Wells or Mike Smithson) who say this or that group is underrepresented this time around, because almost always, it’s not the case.
There seems to have been a perceptible increase in hostility towards Obama on PB.com just in the last week or so. Perhaps we should have a prediction competition so that we can say (a) who we think will win (b) the result of the popular vote will be (c) the result in the Electoral College. Not for any prize, but just for curiosity to compare with what we predicted in January.
McCain 54% Obama 44%
McCain 378 Obama 160 (ish)
(I chose a rough figure for the EC without calculating or adding up likely state subtotals)
Jack W - care for a wager on NC?
Gordon puts his foot in it again!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2713430/Gordon-Brown-triggers-row-with-John-McCain-by-backing-Barack-Obama.html
McCain 48%
Obama 49%
Obama wins by fewer than 20 EVs.
117 Well, I wouldn’t expect McCain to win NC by 20%, but usually, if one group is weighted down in a poll, another group is weighted up. If, for example, they’ve weighted correctly by party ID (I’ve no idea if they have or not) it shouldn’t matter hugely what the ratings by ethnicity are.
71. Isn’t Edward Leigh Chairman of the all party Public Accounts Committee and has been for a number of years. This is a post held by a senior opposition MP and is regarded as one of the most important of the Select Committees.
122 I wouldn’t dissent from that prediction.
116. I wondered why the DOW had sank so badly today after yesterdays gains. I guess thats the answer? The Freddie and Fannie feel-good factor didn’t last long, did it?
I answered several NHS-related points raised on the last thread - I’d hate them to go completely unread
120 robert. Are you offering odds based on the SUSA “poll” ??? …. thought not !!!
In any case I don’t wager with Pbers on principle. Ta for the offer, perhaps some other lucky punter will take you up on the excellent odds you’ll offer.
91. Would it help if I knew who/what “Elbow” is/was?
Polly has been ruffled up the wrong way!!!!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2008/09/09/polly_toynbee_nil_damian_thompson_one
123 Sean F. It would where AA votes for one party around 95%.
119
I have no idea what the result will be, nor am I partisan one way or the other, but there has been far too much Obamamania IMHO. All I read was McCain is hopeless (apart from Ave it 08 and a few others). In any event what do these polls mean given the low register to vote figures there seem to be in the USA compared to the UK?.
Even Jack’s ARSE even seems to be having a touch of the runs.
MTF: to be fair, if you read solely pb.com over the last month, you’d think (other than UKpaul) that there were no Obama-fans at all out there!
The community seems to be divided into three groups: Obama is an idiot and will lose badly (Martin C, weathercock, Ave It), Obama and McCain are both OK and it’ll be very close and exciting (Sean Fear, myself), Obama is the messiah (UKpaul). The first group accounts for maybe 40% of posters, the second 40%, and the third perhaps 20%.
132 MTF. My ARSE “having a touch of the runs” !! …. How vulgar.
Such a finely tuned and noble organ as ARSE might tend to a slight bowel egress but certainly not the shits !!!!!!!!!
I don’t see the BBC commissioning the poll as being an ideological issue in any way. There have been several polls, particularly since 2001, carried out by both the BBC and other, American, institutions with an interest in this field to find out what people in other countries think of US affairs, as this is broadly in line with them.
133 - Oh, Robert and you were doing so well. It is others who have said that Obama is the messiah, I have always attacked those who have tried to claim that.
As I posted in August.
“Again, Obama is not the messiah, he’s not even close, I want him to be more liberal, to get rid of the death penalty and so on and he falls far short of what I would like in a ’saviour’ (snark), he’s better than the thugs that he’s facing however and, just as I will support Cameron in a run off against the GOP style labour party then I will support the opponent of the actual GOP. Barr, Nader, whoever. ”
Don’t believe the picture that the hard right try to paint of me.
133
I think you might be right there. I have been watching the BBC and listening on the radio, its clear to me where the sympathy lies.
136 - I suppose the correct phrase that you can pin on me is ‘the GOP are a very dangerous group of people’.
Not quite as anappy though.
134
Jack W
Given your earlier pronouncements via the ARSE, I am surprised that a colostomy has not been scheduled.
“snappy” = “anappy”!
It’s official. Pb.com , they don’t know their ARSE (134) from their Elbow (129).
Thank-you and goodnight.
Link to the NBC/WSJ poll, as trailed earlier.
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080909_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
Obama 46 (47 with leaners)
McCain 45 (46 with leaners)
Poll taken Sat, Sun, Mon
139 MTF. Cheeking my ARSE indeed !!
141 Jonathan.
And good night from me ……
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
132 - The Obama mania has calmed down somewhat and there are plenty of people saying that far from being useless McCain is the only Republican who could have kept this close, let alone beaten Obama.
Brit Hume on Fox is running the BBC poll story.
The American media just doesn’t like an outside intervention of any kind. Even Bill Maher, a Democrat supporter, had a pop when The Sun ran its ‘How can 50 million people be so stupid’ after Bush won in 2004.
The GOP will see mileage in this.
My predition right now if there were a competition would be would be McCain 49% Obama 46%
ECV predition would be McCain 278 Obama 260.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/the_real_american_idol/article1668987.ece
Palin’s family among the oldest in the US, says UK website…
Just in case anyone was still blithely unaware of this being a vile campaign and who think, somehow, that it is all tea and cakes in comparison to other recent elections.
These people should be kept well away from power.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVLQhRiEXZs
The truth?
““It is shameful and downright perverse for the McCain campaign to use a bill that was written to protect young children from sexual predators as a recycled and discredited political attack against a father of two young girls – a position that his friend Mitt Romney also holds. Last week, John McCain told Time magazine he couldn’t define what honor was. Now we know why,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.”
http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-response-to-mccain-ad-education/
If you don’t realise it’s a fight you don’t fight.
At a glance view of Betfair’s forecast of the race.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Page.htm
I’m trying to get it to automate the updates. Anyone know how to get that page to meta refresh within a frame?
149. Forgot to say, Ohio tilting more to McCain…
Well I’m off to bed. If today is doomsday it’s been nice knowing you!
As a matter of interest Rod, why Betfair? If you are using odds as a guide then surely Intrade, being a US institution, would be better than Betfair which Americans cannot use?
Mike S was this poll undertaken by a member of the famous polling council? You have the press release. What does it say? If not undertaken by a ‘recognised’ pollster then I assume you will give it no credence.
The BBC overseas had a habit (and probably still do?) of passing out questionnaires on issues asking people to express their opinion and then to send the card or leaflet back.
This is a self selecting process as most of the respondents will be the questionnaire answering easily accessible people which is why most of the responses on the BBC output in those countries usually got a thumbs up.
My experience of that most easily available ‘audience’ in several countries suggests that they would be leaning to the democrats as they are often the liberal elite, and someone with Obama’s profile would be particularly attractive, while other respondents who are not so accessible, if properly polled, might have a different view.
I will be delighted to be proved wrong and to find the BBC this time used a proper polling company to research in all the 22 countries listed.
152. Because I can’t access the Intrade data as “easily” as Betfair. I would have to use Intrade’s API, which AFAIK costs $$.
The Dour Dipstick of Govan is already rethinking the rethink of the relaunch to revise the policies of the past while continuing with the successful policies of the present.
Well that is what the press officer at No10 is saying in order to tone down the article Brown wrote to tell everyone that policies and practices of the government needed to be rethought.
Well that is what I think he said but I will rethink it and get back to you.
More good news. What next - water shortage?
Farmers fear harvest could be the worst since 1968
Valerie Elliott, Countryside Editor
Britain is facing its worst harvest for at least 40 years as 30 per cent of the country’s grain lies in waterlogged or sodden ground. Hilary Benn, the Rural Affairs Secretary, is expected to give the go-ahead today for farmers to salvage what is left of their crops by using heavy machinery on wet fields.
whoops:
Taxpayers’ £8,000 Barnett Formula bill for services in Scotland
Taxpayers have paid £8,000 per household on extra public services in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland under the controversial Barnett Formula.
Interesting editorial in the Guardian Progress in blue.
“There have been moments in the postwar history of Britain when people who would naturally be inclined to vote Labour have been driven to ask themselves whether the return of a Conservative government would be the worst possible outcome for the country or for the general cause of progress? For those in Britain who think of themselves as progressives, the answer has usually been an unhesitating yes. Nevertheless there is a reasonable and sober body of historical work which reaches the judgment that there have, indeed, been times when Labour has deserved to lose.
We may be approaching another moment for difficult questions. As this week’s Guardian series on the Conservative party, three years after David Cameron became its leader, has shown, Conservatives are once again making a pitch for the progressive vote. Should people for whom the idea of a Tory government has always been a horror start to listen?”
Roger, are you listening, its cool to vote Tory again and …
153 - The BBC - as you can see by looking at the poll in detail - used the pollster GlobeScan. I would say that attitudes among people outside Western Europe and the US, in terms of ideology, aren’t so easily comparable: “liberal elites”, insofar as they exists, can have very different attitudes to those in the West, and the same applies to national ideological streams outside that group.
157.TPA, say no more.
Oh dear. This one might run. Headline on Drudge.
OBAMA: ‘LIPSTICK ON A PIG, STILL A PIG’
“That’s not change,” Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said of what Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is offering. “You know, you can put lipstick on a pig,” Obama said, “but it’s still a pig.”
The crowd rose and applauded, some of them no doubt thinking he may have been alluding to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s ad lib during her vice presidential nomination acceptance speech last week.
Way to go to win over former Hillary supporters…..
McCain back out to 2.5. This surprises me as I think today has been a good day for him polling wise.
The 3 trackers are overall unchanged - Rasmussen has Obama +1, Gallup is flat and Hotline has McCain +1.
Yet today’s trackers have replaced Friday’s polling (which should have been MCain’s best day, being the day after his speech) with Monday’s polling (now 4 days after McCain’s speech). So I would have expected a reasonable jump for Obama in today’s trackers but no overall move at all has happened.
Also some good State polls for McCain in last 24 hours - not only North Carolina (McCain +20, subject to points raised above), but also New Jersey (Obama only +6), Washington (Obama only +4), Wisconsin (Obama only +3), Michigan (Obama only +1).
So surely McCain should have shortened today.
Tangent I have no acceess at the moment to any details of the BBC survey and I will be pleased if they have broken with their rather self serving survey style.
Do you know GlobeScan?
Their website talks about ‘reputation research’ and there is no mention of being part of the ‘ pollsters union’ which Mike S thinks is so important. They do calim membership of a global version and a US thingummybob.
And they say of themselves : ” Our mission is to be the world’s centre of excellence for objective global survey research and strategic counsel.
We deliver research-based insight to companies, governments, multilaterals, and NGOs in pursuit of a prosperous and sustainable world.”
Politics seems not to be their thing. The BBC is not listed amongst their clients but the UK government is. Did the FCO commission this as the owner of the BBC World Service?
http://www.globescan.com/
160 Chris D does that make it any less true or any less explosive?
162 - Friday’s numbers actually pick up very little from Thursday evening on, they are mostly pre-speech.
162 - 2.5 seems very good value based on today’s polls. But Obama has not had a positive story in the news for a good week and is still about level. That would be worrying for GOP strategists, unless Obama has no ideas how to take back the agenda.
Details on Ron Paul, not backing his party rival McCain -
“Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul will call on supporters to back a third party candidate for president Wednesday, rejecting his own party’s nominee and offering equally harsh words for the Democratic candidate, according to a senior Paul aide.
Paul, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination, will tell supporters he is not endorsing GOP nominee John McCain or Democratic nominee Barack Obama, and will instead give his seal of approval to four candidates: Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney, Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr, independent candidate Ralph Nader and Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin, according to the aide.
The announcement will take place in the morning at the National Press Club in the nation’s capital.”
CNN
165. It’s polling actually done on Friday (ie reported in Trackers on Saturday) that dropped out today.
So as far as I can see that was all post-speech.
164.Witan, I have lived in Scotland most of my life and I have followed the arguments about the fairness of the Barnett formula very closely over the last few years. The aim of that figure was to be explosive, but no where in the detail did I see a fair debate. Where is the detail to back up the claims, the TPA dismiss the revenue from oil and gas, but what about the other industries in Scotland like whiskey?
I have yet to come across a fair or detailed assessment of the Barnett formula taking into account every aspect of the cost of running BASIC public services throughout Scotland which has vast area’s that are sparsely unpopulated, but whose revenue from these area’s such as whiskey even caused Sean Fear to raise an eyebrow.
The clue to the biased slant of this article was in the your original link, “taxpayers pay an extra £8,000 per household on EXTRA services in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland”?
Have you seen the roads up my way, or how far people have to travel on them to reach a hospital or a school?
They always compare the figures for the whole of the Celtic area’s with a bog standard one size fits all figure for the English taxpayer.
Are you telling me that deprived area’s in the Labour heartlands of the North receive exactly the same spending per head that they do in the leafy homeshires? No, like areas in Scotland and Wales there are vast differences. And when we in Scotland finally end up leaving the Union because of this type of politics, who will take our place as the perceived group to be vilified for being a drain on the poor taxpayers of the South of England?
We might get the last laugh though, their energy bills are going to go through the roof and you might end up paying decidedly more than that figure over the next 30 years!
****Nevada flips over to McCain on Betfair****
Ranked EVs
Obama 273
McCain 265
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Page.htm
169 - They make whisky in Scotland rather than whiskey do they not?
**Pedants corner**
161. That little comment should help counter the big shift of white women over to McCain:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080909/pl_nm/usa_politics_women_dc
Still the secular progressives in the democrat movement chose this inexperienced nut to be their presidential candidate.
FOUR MORE YEARS!
170. Colorado required to put McCain ahead (current implied chance 44.5%)
170 - This is a belter of a race. And those betfair state results do make the 2.5 look good value still.
172 - He’s not impressing in his capaigning in the last week or so. I now think he has to more than just not get heavily beaten by McCain in the debates. He has to not get beaten to any obvious degree at all.
They are going to be fascinating! I can’t wait.
171.Correct David, typing too fast and not checking my spelling.
175.Those debates could shape the whole campaign?
177 - I think so, if the polls don’t change from this near tie before them. The only way they have no impact is if they are a score draw.
Obama needs to watch the Bush/Gore ones. I never thought Bush stood an earthly chance until I saw how he had the folksy stuff down pat whiel Gore just looked like a smug college lecturer. If Obama talks down to the audience in any way he’ll be toast. I think Obama is the only man who decides this election. It is his to throw away. At the moment he looks like he’s trying to do that, but he has these debates as his chance to connect with people who don’t already hate the GOP.
Just discovered something interesting. There is a flurry of odds changes on Betfair exactly every half-an-hour…
Anyone know why that should be, and are there any implications?…
Coffee House Blog on The McCain campaign mocks Gordon Brown.
179. Correction. Exactly every 15 minutes…
180 - McCain’s team might have heard of Brown’s Jonah abilities.
Leadership challenge heralds more disunity for Unite
Cambridge University’s Alison Richard condemns push for state pupils
“Cambridge today will condemn attempts to force elite universities to recruit more pupils from state schools and disadvantaged backgrounds.
In a robust attack on government “meddling”, Alison Richard, the Vice-Chancellor of Cambridge University, will say that universities are not “engines for promoting social justice”.
Ministers have repeatedly called on elite universities to do more to attract students from poor backgrounds. Last night Professor Richard told The Times that the role of Cambridge was to educate and to lead research, not to “fix problems of social mobility”.
She said: “We try to reach out to the best students, whatever their background. One outcome of that is that we can help to promote social mobility. But promoting social mobility is not our core mission. Our core mission is to provide an outstanding education within a research setting.””
183.I must admit that I get fed up with the idea that state schooling is often muddled with the term children from poorer backgrounds.
Most of us put our children to state schools, but if the balance between state and privately educated kids tips to far in one direction, it can only mean that the government is failing to provide a decent education for the majority. It would be interesting to see how much the figures for children in the private sector of education has increased in the last 10 years?
My experience is that it is teachers in state schools who need encouraging to get their brightest pupils to apply to Oxbridge.
Alison Richard is right. Oxbridge is such an easy target for class-war idiots.
Yes they try to reach out to the best students, whatever their background: just as long as Mummy and Daddy are swimming in a pool of cash.
Next they reach out to average students with wealthy parents.
Any of the remaining places go to the student with good academic results and an association with extraordinary wealth.
How dare Brown dare try to meddle with the almost self-sustaining elite university business model. He’s done enough damage to the economy already.
Rod Crosby,
It could be a machine following some strategy; market making, scalping, etc. I had a meeting with Betfair in relation to my day job and they’re common on the sports markets, apparently, and on financial markets obviously, but it may be a first for political betting.
186 - Well at my college the number of foreign undergraduates was petty low as was the number of people from the top public schools. It was a younger college but it was Cambridge and I was never asked for my parents’ bank details.
They ask for money regularly now of course, and one day, if I have a few spare pennies I might give them some.
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2004/4/14/
This from before the last election tickled me.
187 continued …
Alternatively, maybe Betfair just sends out some update every 15 minutes.
190. Thanks, dunno whether that’s a conspiracy or not. I have set the “Betfair Tracking Workbook” to refresh every 10 seconds. Virtually nothing detectable happens until the quarter-hour, when it goes into orgasm mode, odds jumping around significantly…
It is interesting how many British Tories I know follow the specific trend of disliking Bush; supporting the Democrats at the last election; supporting Hillary’s candidature during this primary season; but being won over magnificently by McCain (myself included). Not that our views matter of course but it is an interesting situation.
169 - i thought whisky was taxed at point of purchase rather than source. Do the Scots really drink so much more of the stuff that the lose out materially?
The point about oil and gas is that there is no good reason why the Scots should get the benefits of it in a UK context. If they were independent then the arguments start, but until then it is illogical to treat them as anything other than a UK resource to be allocated equally (subject to variations based on need as appropriate).
Never trust any TPA methodology though… They have a habit of relying on assumptions that assist their conclusions or oversimplify the arguments in their favour.
195.Agreed.