Ipsos-MORI figures corroborated
September 17th, 2008
Is the biggest loser Nick Clegg?
As reported in my second update on the previous thread I have just spoken to a journalist who had the embargoed Press Association story and he has corroborated the figures.
Clearly these are sensational numbers and will put pressure on both Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg. At least Labour has the consolation that its vote stayed at the same level in the survey as in the last poll by the firm in August.
For Nick Clegg - still reeling after his £30 a week pension comment - these numbers could not have come at a worse time. In one sense he’s fortunate - his conference is finished and he could have had an uncomfortable few hours if the poll had come out before his speech
For Labour the story goes on. There can be little doubt that without a change at the top they are facing a disastrous general election within the next twenty months. Would a new leader make a difference?? It might and that just undermines Brown’s position. Potential rebels have almost nothing to lose.
There’s due to be a mass of polling in the next few days ahead of Labour’s gathering in Manchester. In the bunker they must be praying for something that offers a glimmer of hope.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Is Nick Clegg the biggest loser? yes. What has that got to do with the polls?
Are people really making a big deal about the ‘£30′ comment? It was a human error, and the worst I’ve seen levelled against him is a ‘did he sleep with 30 or 90 women’ gag. Don’t think that has anything to do with this poll…
Lib Dems are being squeezed, but I think this is an outlier.
The Lib Dems cannot change their leader again - they would look ridiculous. Clegg is the man to lead them into the election and much as I really don’t like him or the Lib Dems, he hasn’t done an awful lot wrong - pension gaffe aside
It is interesting but I think we have found Labour’s bedrock of support being 24%. Labour are indeed looking at a catastrophe.
From end of last thread:
152 PtP “As for NOM, there’s a great twin bet to be had. Buy Cons (or sell Lab) on the spreads, and back the NOM option on Betfair. If Labour do contrive a comeback, you’re covered.”
I’d considered that a couple of weeks ago as an insurance policy, but the odds didn’t look sufficiently attractive. Even now, at 4.4, you’d have to spend proportionately quite a lot. Worth waiting for this latest poll and other events to play out?
And this poll still hasn’t seen Labour begin to shed votes yet. Is 24% REALLY their floor? I would have expected them to lose at least 1 in 10 of their previous voters after recent events.
2 but it is a big deal Charlie - it shows a lack of awareness of what ordinary pensioners face. It was just human error for sure, but it will damage him.
— SportingIndex spreads market suspended —
A number of interesting gains on these figures for the Conservatives such as Newcastle Central.
Of course, what this poll shows is that David Cameron is doing nowhere near well enough. At this stage he should be polling at least 60%. The best he can hope for is a hung Parliament.
6. Well, clearly it is their floor then.
From last thread for Morus
145- Morus
Yes, for one year when we were 19.
She was much more beautiful than she is today (just teasing you…) 1 of my friends was deperately in love with her and never managed to get close, 1 other friend was not that impressed, but slept with her… good memories!
by Chris (from Paris) September 17th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Reposted from last thread - just for the craic!
OK, few days later than suggested, but still:
“76 A poll in one of Sunday’s showing the Tories nudging 50% - with Labour 27% behind - might provoke a few more names though….
by Marquee Mark September 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm ”
I still think it might provoke those extra names to reveal themselves.
I don’t really think it’s Clegg’s fault (although the preparing the government could come back to haunt him). Simple truth is no one cares what the Lib Dems say. They want whoever is best placed to beat Labour. Shame Clegg spent his speech slating Cameron rather than telling Northern Labour voters why they should vote for them.
No matter how bad the poll numbers, Gordo is never going to walk away
3 ooopps - thought Mike was suggesting a Lib Dem change of leader in the story!
2. I’m sorry, it was not a human error. Clegg’s Comment was a grotesque if inadvertent admission of ignorance from a supposed “major party leader”. It was hideous. Almost career-ruining.
If Cameron did this you’d never hear the end of it - “vile, elitist, out of touch posho shows contempt for poor people and the old”. And the thing is, you’d be right. It would show contempt for the poor and the old.
Just cause Clegg is a Lib Dem doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get the same treatment. He should. And he will.
What’s particularly bad is that the suspicion already exists: that Clegg is a vacuous public school toff who is basically a rich shameless careerist europhile who doesn’t know anything about anything.
This stupid remark confirms all those suspicions in one go.
Will Clegg become the first leader of a political party for absolutely ages to lose his seat at the election?
18 Not if Kirkcaldy announces first
These are awful numbers. How low did the Tories ever go? Appreciate different methodologies, etc…..
11
24% will not survive an extra 500,000 unemployed..
17. Wow Sean, calm down.
It will be completely forgotten by the time the election comes round. He handled it very well last night when questioned about it on the News.
Anyway, hopefully I won’t need to vote for him, because Labour will get rid of Buffoon.
12 - She is one of my long shot bets to be PM, if not President, one day! And Sarkozy went for Carla Bruni…
2. Defo not an error of judgement. He clearly didn’t know and should have said so.
18 “And the said Jeremy Clarkson has been elected to represent the constituency of Sheffield Hallam”….
BBC reports that the government will legislate to avoid competition rules for HBOS/Lloyds as stability comes before choice.
As if there is a distinct choice. It is that sort of sloganised policy making which got us into this mess in the first place.
Its all over for Cleggover. They’ve not put it up on LDV yet.. I wonder why…
6 - Yes, after the “rebels” speaking out I’d have thought that there would have been some change in the Labour figure. Surely, Clegg’s gaffe was too recent to have figured in this poll? Perhaps their new uncosted lower taxes policy has been seen through by electors?
Clegg has Gordon Brown’s problem: he has no common touch.
12-Ha Ha
Like the French panache.
Reminds me of a time an English friend of mine went to a French house party in Moscow. He told me, “the bird you “slept with” was there with her new bf/soon to be husband and I (sic) felt so embarassed…..”. Everyone knew, but being French they didn’t give a rat’s arsh.
Oh my God!!! sound like Sean T…. (and Cleggover)
Even the kids want Brown to go…
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5ggvh5jCMZGIFDYSz4GZQW8Ab2S3w
With these figure, it will be easy to spin the conference as a success, evenif the COnservative drop to 48%, the bunker will, doubtless, claim a Brown bounce.
I seem to note that we have not had another relaunch yet !
21. Maybe. But the Labour vote - feeble as it is - does look kind of solid - it never goes far below 25%. This must be bedrock territory.
Their problem is that, these days, it never goes much higher than 25% either, and I don’t think it will now - at least under Brown. Meanwhile, it is increasingly obvious that the huge Get Labour Out vote is swinging entirely behind Cameron (and the SNP north of the border).
This presages a truly crushing defeat for Labour at the GE, as all these forces conspire against them.
They may win 100-150 seats.
32. Sorry sticky keyboard !
Doesn’t anybody care about his statement that he wouldn’t subject his own children to the sorts of schools he would create (if given the opportunity to reform the public schools)? That seems like a terrible gaffe too. How can that one not come back to haunt him?
32/34 - We’ll not ask…
4. James I think you are wrong. I am expecting Labour to drop below 20% in more than one poll in course of next couple of weeks. The latest poll even if is reliable does not fully reflect the leadership debate in the Labour Party (which is likely to warm up) or the difficulties which may arise with the proposed UK bank merger. It is interesting that the still violatile HBOS price is at a massive discount to the anticipated £3 price. It is not a done deal yet!
20 - I think on 09/01/1995 the polls were Lab 62 - Con 18.5 and LD 14… Can’t see anything worse
12 who are you referring to?
18, 19. It’s hardly ‘ages’ since there was last a case of a party leader losing his seat, only three and a bit years.
35. Presume you are talking about state schools ( public schools in the US).
Given the hypocrisy seen with Labour, such as with the arch socialist Dianne Abbott sending her son to a prestigious fee paying school, while the majority of students in her constituency are left flapping in the socialist LEA breeze, this is minor.
I think that what this poll shows is a general feeling by the majority of the public that Labour is not on their side anymore. It’s a long road to recovery this, need to re-engage with the public identify what they care about and are angry about and do something about it or at least make noises in the right direction.
39- MTF
Rama Yade, see last thread
The Libs can’t change leaders again. I mean lets recap since 2005 they have had;
Kennedy
Ming
Cable
Clegg
Another leader this side of the election would be just astonishing, even for a party as inept as the Liberals.
This is of course, a warning for the Labour plotters. They assume that getting rid of Brown would mean his replacement would have to do better and certainly no worse. What Clegg tells us though, is that there no guarantee a new leader for Labour would do any better, and there is some evidence that actually Clegg is doing worse than Ming. Labour could go through all the trauma of assasnating Brown, just to end up picking someone thats as bad or worse. Theres no guarantees.
36. I am using a grotty communal workstation.
The lowest the Tories went, I think was 20 in June 1995- Gallup. Of course, the methodology is different now- as I understand, the Tories would have been understated.
This couldn’t come at a worse time for Labour- the conference looming and the Tories get their second ever highest rating since 1987. The meltdown in the City hasn’t been taken into account either.
If we see the expected infighting next week and a bounce from the Conservative Conference- we could be looking at the Tories getting 60% in the opinion polls and Labour less than 20.
Brown to go?? I’d guess that if he’s not on his way out by the end of the conference, he’ll lead Labour to the next General Election.
35 - I care a lot.
The hypocrisy is staggering. I don’t care whether politicians believe in state schools only, or private schools only, as long as they act in accordance with their principles.
If a lefty parent-on-the-street comprimises for the sake of their kid, I can understand it, but it is utterly unaccetable for a politician *who is prepared to legislate on behalf of other people’s children*.
You can forgive the parent-on-the-street for being a hypocrite because they aren’t forcing their hypocrisy on anyone else.
You can almost forgive the politician backbencher (like Dianne Abbot) the hypocrisy if they have the gall to admit and apologise for it.
What made me furious about Clegg is that he is being hypocritical, from the front bench of a political party, and seemed to expect that he should be lauded as a good parent.
The man is a disgrace in every way.
44. The Lib Dems won’t change leaders, Clegg is long term
50% and the Tories on double Labour was once touted as a red line. Here, I think!
It really is looking more and more like Brown is toast. When was the last time he was seen? He won’t be allowed to shun the limelight next week. Seems these thigns when happen, build a momentum of their own.
BUT, what is in it for Laboutr MPs, since it is incoeivable that a change of leader would not result in an early GE? :
-a place in the history books
-an outside chance of retaining their seat
-principle (with a few noble exceptions, pelase don’t laugh!)
-Tory gold?
Has anyone added an ANTI-Labour tactical vote parameter?
41- You’re probably right. Still, Clegg really boxed himself in the way he phrased it. Instead of simply saying he couldn’t yet say whether he’d send his kids to public or private school, or that he would like to if only he could reform the state schools properly, he basically said that, even if he could change the schools the way he’d like, he would be “irresponsible” to stick his own kids in the “test tube” of his own making. That’s an awful and amateurish comment to make.
45 - There could be *anything* down there, lurking in the ‘Querty Crevices’!
I think Brown needs to look to NASA with help for his relaunches now… perhaps strapped to their latest mission!
wow. if anything like that figure were replicated at a GE you’d have a tory majority that would be, democratically speaking, kinda unhealthy…200+!
38. But, as has been rehearsed many times on here before, Labour’s present predicament is arguably WORSE than the Tories’ in 1995.
Labour are fighting on three fronts: Cameron all over England (and to a lesser extent the LDs in the north of England), Plaid in Wales and the rampant SNP in Scotland.
Labour’s core vote could be eaten up and destroyed right across the UK. Is there anywhere you could now say is absolutely copper-fastened guaranteed Labour, undoubtedly safe from the Tories, the SNP, the LDs etc? I really dunno. A few Welsh seats. Inner city Manchester. Tyne and Wear. Where else?
In 1995 you always knew that the Tories would remain safe in their middle class English strongholds - that’s a large chunk of the country. And you also knew that the Tories would remain the only serious rightwing party, the natural party for a solid 30% of the electorate.
It’s very different, and considerably worse, for Labour. Who do they really represent, and where? And how?
50. It’s one of the all-time worst gaffes by a UK political leader I can remember. What a fool.
37
My charting suggests a low for Labour at around 15%… Next spring at the height of the bad news and FTSE below 4,000.
LOL - LDV: Clegg’s speech has 24 comments of which about half are positive! Still no mention of the MORI poll…….
However we interpret Nick Clegg’s education policy, it will not be implemented anytime soon….
54. Indeed but according to the BBC’s analysis he has emerged from his first conference test ‘unscathed’. Bloke must have been dipped in teflon then.
Gold at $840 +7.5%
Dow -350
Melt down time.
56. Go on, somebody has to ruin it for them.
O/T - Worth pointing out that the current LIBOR spike is worse than the initial start of the Credit crunch. The Interbank markets are now more seized up than in August last year, if the LIBOR spike continues then any company that has any dealing with wholesale credit is in big big trouble.
47-Wasn’t it Tony who started with the “do as I say, not what I do” with the Oratory school and all that? Thsi at the time of Blunkett’s “no selection” speech? (soon conveniently forgotten)
I seem to remember Jeremy Corbyn divorced his wife over this. She wanted to send the kids to my old school (!!) but he wouldn’t have it. I do respect his honesty although I am not sure I would recommend politics trumping family life!
152 (previous thread)
PtP - I’ve just been checking my earlier No Overall Majority bets and remember gleefully taking Coral’s then seemingly generous odds of 1.75-1 as recently as early March this year - it’s amazing how far things have moved over the past 6 months with Betfair’s price of 3.4-1 almost double the odds then available.
Of course, a losing bet is still a losing bet irrespective of how long the odds might be. But your idea of coupling this with a buy of Tory seats/sale of Labour seats looks neat, although I’m not sure how one would work out the arithmetic. Even as a stand alone bet, there must be a reasonable prospect of laying this off profitably ahead of the next GE, IF (key word) Labour changes its Leader in the interim.
62. What school was that ?
31.”Even the kids want Brown to go…”
Proof if it were needed that kids do occasionally listen to their parents views.
62 - If it’s more important to you than your political principle, then you shouldn’t be a politician - let alone a party leader - end of story.
O/T: Does anyone know what the latest date is that the Glenrothes by-election could be held? On polls like this, it would seem in Gordon’s interest to hold it off as long as possible.
…Not that it’ll make any difference to the result.
43 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!
67 - I think November 11th is the last *practical* date.
In theory, not until the next Parliament, I think.
Labour can go as low as they like. Fact remains that Brown isn’t going anywhere and there doesn’t seem to be a Heseltine figure within the Party.
I still feel all the resignations were oddly timed. Why a week before conference rather than during it?
Tories 40 points clear of the Lib Dems on the day that “Thirty Quid Clegg” proclaims that the LDs are “headed for Government”.
How does he work that one out exactly?
Oblivion. That’s where the LDs are headed for. All 6 of them…
Any chance of 28 Daves just to see what it looks like?
38 James - are those polling figures from 1995 really correct - they are truly staggering and in retrospect it’s amazing that the Tories ever recovered from such an abyss to win around 200 seats two years later.
71. They are actually heading for a yellow Taxi!
53-Tyne & Wear? I think 1-3 seats could conceivably go Tory. Tynemouth the first, Sunderland Central used to be a long shot but maybe no longer, and Newcastle North. I also think the Tories could well pick off as many Labour seats in Wales as PC in case of a landslide. And, I fully expect a pincer movement of Tories and SNP in Scotland.
Quite simply, as has been oft repeated, if Labour are in the mid to low 20s very few seats are safe. Add in anti Labour tactical voting (as opposed to tactical unwind) and it does look very very bleak!!
73. 165 seats!
73 - Scroll through the polls on this link.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
64-QEBS
72 Yes - go on Mike, be a sport. It would be great if you would design it as a pyramid - with 7 Daves at the base and then 6,5,4,3,2,1.
Rogue poll I’m afraid…
75. Indeed, Tyne and Wear looks relatively promising now. Tynemouth was always likely to fall, Sunderland Central would fall on a significantly lower figure than this Mori poll but on these new figures Newcastle Central would also go blue.
OT: Lehman’s London workers completely shafted !
http://tinyurl.com/5tblno
74. And not a big one.
Don’t it always seem to go, you won’t get what you want till Clegg goes…
76 Oops, yes, quite correct Martin - I was thinking of 2005.
Clarkypoos, If you want it.. this YOUR moment!
80 LOL
75. If the Tories don’t win Tynemouth and Sunderland Central then it’s hard to see them getting an overall majority.
47. I agree completely. Nothing annoys me more than so-called leftwingers who educate their children privately.
Someone is bravely buying Labour seats up to 239. Ta.
89. Already gone, but thanks for the short time it lasted.
63 PfP
You don’t have to be too fussy with the arithment because it as you noted; any tightening of the race enables you to lay off the NOM side at a profit.
Objectively the worst result would be a narrow Tory overall majority. Either a NOM or Tory landslide nets you shedloads.
80 “Rogue poll I’m afraid…”
Agree. No way Labour is polling as high as 24%…..
89 - On which market? SportingIndex is suspended.
87-Is Sunderladn Central a MUST WIN? Think not, merely ising on the cake I thought.
However, although normally accurate, Rawlings & Thrasher et al always put a health warning on their notional results. Quite rightly so!
71. Good Evening. There is only one word for Nick Clegg, “Berk”.
How the Lib/Dems ever voted for this Creep as a leader is beyond me. Vince Cable was and is a much better choice, far more knowledgable and a man of wit. Unfortunately the Ageism card was played and the L/D’s are going to suffer.
However now we Know what the Tories were doing the last couple of week’s. In medieval warfare parlance, they were mining under the L/D walls and have now lit the brushwood, causing the wall’s to collapse. What devilry might they be up to when the Labour Conference start’s?
I’ve not heard Clegg’s comment, but on the general principle: I don’t think it is inconsistent to say, “I don’t think my local school is as good as it should be, and I favour the following policies so it and other schools like it get better; meanwhile, I’m sending my daughter to another school.” I don’t have any kids, but I’d be prepared to do that if that situation arose, and I think the public would understand.
When I recently had a cancer scare I went through the NHS as I always do, confident that the service was good and any delay compared with the private sector would be negligible. But if it had happened in 1997 and it would have meant waiting 2-3 months with possibly fatal implications, I think I might have said “We are going to bring NHS waiting times down, but right now they’re too high, and I’m going to have the ultrascan done privately.” Where it’s not for oneself but for a child and there’s a partner to consult as well, I think people shouldn’t be too censorious.
If Clegg said he wanted changes to schools but he still wouldn’t use them for his own kids after they were implemented, though, that’s just bizarre. Is that correct?
93. SpreadFair, Richard.
94-Oh dear!! blame Turkish beer brewed in Kaz for shpeliing!
Mr Palmer - Is there any truth in the rumour that Gordon Brown is going to ask Sir Victor Blank to get Lloyds TSB in to ‘take over’ the Labour Party to arrest the decline in its fortunes ?
96- Nick, that’s not at all what Clegg said. It’s much worse… basically an admission that he’d never send his own kids to the schools he’s create for everybody else. If I can find the link again, I’ll post it here so you can read for yourself.
Purnell is coming out against Brown!
Purnell: “attempts to silence rebels ‘ridiculous’”
102 - Link?
I’m not too fussed about Clegg’s school choices. He’s an irrelevence.
Good one by Guido:
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/meltdown-tories-breakthrough-to-52-ftse.html
103. Breaking on sky
96-What were cancer survival rates in 1997 as comapared to 2007/2008?
It still seems slightly counter-intuitive that one in four adults want Gordon to carry on doing his ‘thing’ for another five years.
There are some troubled people in this country.
97 Right - well, isn’t selling Labour on SpreadFair at the current 228 is a no-brainer, given that SportingIndex have just suspended their market at 224-230. (Unless of course they’ve suspended it because they’ve had a mass of Labour buyers!)
101/2 - where are you getting this from?
101. Is Purnell’s seat under thread?
I posted this just before the change of blog again:
Lets hope that if another big American outfits pegs that its Goldman Sachs. Those leeches have bled this country for hundreds of millions conducting useless surveys and studies for Tony Blair and Gordn Brown and of course umpteen GS partners were big Labour party supporters/donors.
Re the 2010 election in Scotland. Tory targets seats to watch seeing how the election is going
1) Dumfries and Galloway (Tory held at Holyrood)
2)Berwick Roxburgh and Selkirk (much was Tory gain from LibDem at Holyrood)
3) Edinburgh South (coming from3rd place)
4) East Renfrewshire (just failed to take the Holyrood seat back by 2% or 900 votes)
5) Edinburgh SW (would be biggest success of night and Tory majority in Pentlands now 4500 or 13%)
6) Stirling (toss up with SNP)
7) Argyll (toss up with SNP)
Aberdeenshire W (if LibDems having a really bad election)
9)Perth (if 1 seat bucks the SNP trend as Galloway did in 2007)
10) Carrick etc (Ayr has a Tory majority of 4000 or 2.5% and South Ayrshire is the main Tory run council in Scotland but if Tories win the Westminster seat then Labour heading for a thrashing)
11) anything else then into unchartered territory
by Easterross September 17th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Of course the Glasgow seat I was talking about was Glasgow South but I repeat if the Tories win either Glasgow North or South then things really are in new territory.
Breaking news James Parnell slightly breaking ranks on the subject of rebels
96- Nick, here is the article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4743751.ece
Here is the quote:
He will not say whether he would ever send his children to private school. “I am not going to make my children the test-tube laboratory case for the kind of politics I believe in. That would be irresponsible as a father.”
94. No but it would be a big “trophy seat” for the Tories. Cameron has invested a lot of time into regenerating the Tories in Northern cities. While they’re still weak in Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield, they’ve made progress in places like Sunderland. This is the successor to Chris Mullin’s Sunderland South which has been first to declare at the last few elections, can you imagine the impact of a huge Tory gain in the first declared seat? It’s a real long shot for them but even if they get within 5% of Labour it will be an earlly indication of the scale of the wipeout that will follow!
101.102. What? where?
96. Nick why aren’t you in the bunker with our Great Leader?
On the plus side, you still won’t fit all eight of the Lib Dem parliamentary party in a standard London Taxi, unless Vince Cable’s the driver.
96. No Nick. It is bad. There’s only a finite amount of resources for schools and hospitals. if you go the private route you push up demand, you drain good teachers from the state system and you drive up the cost of GP contracts.
The poll is causing ructions on Labour home
Mike even gets a mention !
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/9/17/115921/083
Beauty of Conservative education policy - end of educational apartheid. Equal funding for all - topped up for most disadvantaged and SEN - anybody can run a school on whatever selection basis they like. (OK, I know we haven’t got that far - yet - we will).
Simple, job done, no return to faux disgust/horror etc. Unions parginalised, teachers restored to position of trusted and respected professionals - oh it is just such a complete win win!
106 - Aargh, I can’t get sky!
113 - Yes, it’s the ‘test-tube’ phrase which is so insulting to those who have no choice as to where to send their children. It’s a gaffe of the highest order, or at least it would be if anyone much cared about LibDem policies.
96. Sorry to hear you had a ‘C’ scare. Hope you are alright anyway, that must be really terrifying and difficult time to go through.
In terms of Clegg, without getting repetitive, I just don’t think he cuts the mustard or for that matter was ever likely too.
I have never understood why Sky don’t have a free streaming news service
If Purnell goes, that’s it for Gordon*
*probably
112 Easteross, with you on Goldman Sachs. Going into their Fleet Street offices is the nearest corporate equivalent to walking into Mordor I’ve ever had.
From Labour Home:
If the poll is an accurate reflection of the public mood then we are seeing the biggest deficit either of the two major parties has recorded since The War. This is no surprise since we have the most unpopular PM on record as our party leader.
118 That’s a fallacy. It is quite possible for the supply of health and educational services to increase to match increased demand.
James Purnell: ‘I Share Rebel MPs’ Concerns’
http://tinyurl.com/5zf4zl
At 54 per cent the Tories appear to be roughly where the SDP ended up shortly after their birth: when they presented the British public with a superficially-attractive and plausible ‘easy answer’ to a very difficult set of questions. It will be interesting to see how far the analogy is sustained in the next 18 months. The underlying issue is the question of what effect any change of government would have upon the state of Britain as a whole (and sub-issues such as energy supply/prices, the Housing market, employment and the credit crunch. I would be interested in what the team wouild think about the likely impact upon most of these things in Gordon Brown were to descend into a coma for the next 8 weeks (a) in itself and (b) if the Queen invited David Cameron and George Osbourne to enter Downing Street for a bit of work experience while Mr Brown was resting. It is my own considered view that the answer in both cases is ‘very little’ and would be not much different if one were to substitute ‘8 months’ for ‘8 weeks’ in either scenario. The fundamentals of how these factors will affect large parts of the UK economy are determined largely by the interaction of major international conglommerates, followed by the US Government with the EU lagging some considerable way behind (unless we enter into the Euro) and the British Government some way behind the Bank of England. This hard ‘reality’ may not, however, trickle through to the electorate, in which case we may well elect, in the fullness of time, the government who we deserve.
117-If there are only 8 LD MPs, will Cable be one of them?
Or will his new job be as a cabby? Does he ahve the Green Badge???
http://tinyurl.com/3efrtp
Meanwhile the second headline on the BBC is “Libdems ‘headed for government’”
125. SeanT. ven If they all go Gordo will still be clinging to his seat.
129 - With friends like that…
128. Yes. But the supply of health and education resources is inelastic training teachers and doctors takes a long time.
Brown is simply being blown away like a falling leaf by events this week. Its so obvious.
Electoral calculus on this poll gives 493 Conservative Mps,121 Labour and 8 Lib Dems-so the Lib Dems would fit in a people-carrier!:lol:
119. Poor old Labour. You have to feel just a little biut sorry for them don’t you?
Actually, nah!
So finally someone from the Cabinet decides to act and speak out. Question is, will other Cabinet members follow his lead?
Could Brown be out by the weekend? Next weeks conference could then be a beauty contest for the runners and riders to strut their stuff while the country burns.
129. Purnell’s comments are absurdly spineless and vacillating. He refuses to condemn the rebels who are trying to topple Brown, yet he also says he doesn’t support them, yet he also refuses to rule out supporting a leadership challenge himself, if it happens, but he says that’s hypothetical… and so on and so forth and so what.
Just sums up the whole embarrassing and mortifying charade.
The Labour party is run by a bunch of pathetic, moaning, cowardly, hysterical, selfish, pissabed wetwipes.
Just Do It. Just get on with it. Either Get Rid of Your Stupid Leader, or, please, shut the F up.
136 Indeed it does, but that’s not the same thing. If the private sector didn’t exist, then (a) everyone using private healthcare or education would have to use the public sector, and (b) some professionals would cease working, or cease working in the private sector, in addition to their public sector work.
@141:
Andy Purnell’s seat would fall according to Baxter.
Others getting a thorough Portilloing include:
Kelly, Flint, Straw, Hewitt, Follett, Purnell, Jacqui Smith, Meacher, Clarke, McNulty, Bradshaw, Jowell, Beckett, Milburn, Hodge, Hoon, Hutton and Primarolo.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 47%
Note - Yesterday M47 O46.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx
139. Bu–er poor old labour, as a main contributer to our woes:
U.S. Stocks Drop as Lending Freezes Up Following AIG Takeover
By Elizabeth Stanton and Lynn Thomasson
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks tumbled as bank lending seized up in the wake of the government’s takeover of American International Group Inc., raising concern that more of the nation’s biggest financial companies will fail.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two remaining independent U.S. securities firms after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and Merrill Lynch & Co. was taken over, plunged the most ever. General Electric Co., the world’s third- biggest company, fell 7.7 percent and U.S. Steel Corp. slid 11 percent. Yields on three-month Treasury bills sank to a 54-year low as investors sought the relative safety of government debt, and a measure of corporate borrowing costs surged to the highest since the crash of 1987.
“It’s ugly,” said Michael Mullaney, a Boston-based money manager for Fiduciary Trust Co., which oversees $10 billion in stocks and bonds. “It’s about the worst I’ve seen it in 25 years. You have to have free-flowing credit to lubricate the system. That’s not happening right now.”
It’s looking like Labour’s best hope might be PR…
So that is a huge Lehmann bounce for Obama
143. If all those seats fell, the air on the morning after would that much cleaner and crisper !
119- Thanks for the link, that was an interesting read. The headline article is reasonable and on target. The readers’ reactions run the gamut from denial to pro-Brown hysterics to anti-Brown hysterics.
146 Prayer Rug?
146 - wouldn’t help them, on these figures.
How’s that hung parliament forecast looking these days, Rod?
146 Purnell Resignation?
Interesting article on the introduction of Sharia Law in the UK…
http://europenews.dk/en/node/14194
As Purnell is a nonentity, who cares?
(I could say that about most of the Cabinet)
Mike
Do you really think it’s wise to bet time and again on the back of embargoed information? You are betraying a confidence by doing so, getting your bets on before you tell anyone else. it is tantamount to trading on inside information, which is not allowed elsewhere.
It shows a lack of trustworthiness, putting greed before morality. You should be ashamed.
Martin - yes, thanks, I’m fine, total false alarm.
G: yes, well, I agree it’s debatable when politicians go private themselves, but I’m not convinced they owe it to the public to tell their families, “Yes, school X is rubbish but you’ve got to go there for the sake of Daddy’s principles.” What if the partner disagrees, as in Jeremy Corbyn’s case - doesn’t
(s)he get a say? But I agree with S&S and Morus that Clegg’s comment is at best peculiar - he seems to say he’d be willing to experiment with schools but stay clear of the outcome.
Peter2: Prostate cancer survival rose from 70.8 in 1998 to 74.4 in 2003 (as survival is defined as 5 years that’s the most recent we’ve got). There are statistical issues about the rate of early detection which may or may not account for some of that - no time to go into them as I’ve got to go out to a public meeting that I’ve organised tonight on policing.
152.
I think it was a medical term which so many Tories would like to apply to New Labour.
154 Purnell is not a nonentity at all. He’s one of the Blairites leading hopes. if he resigns we could be on to an election.
143. James Purnell.
If he goes, it’s over. Same as with Flint.
154. Nonentity? Hardly. Very naive indeed.
What’s the chance of a defection or two? If the NEC continue to bury their heads in the sand then it may be the only way to really rock the boat.
160. When was the last Labour defection to the Tories?
144. That means Obama must have polled very well today. Big shift.
142. It’s probably me being phenomenally stupid but I don’t quite understand your argument.
161 - Well in Parliamentary terms Reg Prentice in 1977
153. A heavily anti-muslim site using the Daily Mail as a source. How reliable and balanced.
Fun poll; who would you vote for Gordon Brown or Neville Chamberlain?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2008/sep/17/gordonbrown.labour?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
155-Not often I say so, but thanks for the info!!!
I will miss you when you become merely NP, as opposed to NP MP!!
164. I had a feeling it would be a while ago.
Who can you honestly see defecting to the Tories? Hoey? I think she’s denied it on the record.
Fantastic -
On these numbers, Geoff Hoon, John Hutton, Sion Simon, Jack Straw, Ruth Kelly, Dawn Primarolo, Nick Palmer, Kitty Ussher, Ivan Lewis, Geoffrey Robinson, Malcolm Wicks, Jon Cruddas, Alan Milburn, Margaret Beckett, Caroline Flint, Tessa Jowell, Alistair Darling, Austin Mitchell, Tony McNulty, Ann Cryer, Patricia Hewitt, Charles Clarke, Michael Meacher, Jacqui Smith, John Denham, James Purnell, Barbara Follett, and Beverley Hughes will all lose their seats.
LibDhimms who’ll lose their seats include Julia Goldsworthy, Chris Huhne, Lembit Opik, Vince Cable, and Nick Clegg.
It looks as though after the next GE both the Tapeworm Party and the LibDhimms will have the same leader-replacement problem, i.e. almost all the field will have been eviscerated. Labour’s candidates will consist of Broon, Harman, Miliband, and Burnham. The LibDhimms’ will candidate list will comprise Sarah Teather.
Both are a recipe for another 300-seat Tory majority in 2014.
It’s Nick Palmer I feel sorry for. He’ll have to take a pay cut from £220,000 to £90,000 to resume his previous career. Still, he’ll get a fat payoff and a nice pension.
Will we see a lot of Labour MPs “retiring” before 2010 due to “sickness”? If they do that, the pension they get is calculated as though they’d served till they were 65! Nice work if you can get it!
166. I feel a little sorry for Chamberlain, Britain was in no position to fight in ‘38 and he achieved quite a bit as Chancellor.
144. wow obama finally getting his act together again then, need to see this shift reflected in a few key state polls as well though before getting too happy
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 46% .. Lab 25.6% .. LibDem 16.8% .. Others 11.6%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 415 seats .. Lab 155 .. LibDem 44 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 180.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
151 - It’s looking a lot better than NP’s prediction of a 1997-esque majority. Although to be fair he only got one thing wrong - the direction of the landslide……
Looks a very good day to place bets. Some polls are always outliers.
@ 38 Don’t forget that polls continue to overstate Labour support. So Labour’s 62% then was possibly 52% and Cameron’s 52% now is possibly 62%. There’s no way to know.
Plus the Tories always suffer mid-term unpopularity, whether in government or opposition. This could simply be the Tories starting to recover from their trough of poor poll ratings that were as low as the high 40s.
174 Are you suggesting this is an outlier? Have you never heard of Smithson’s Law?
Nick Clegg is the new Neil Kinnock, celebrating his success before he actually has any. Losing councils and councillors in May and being already a net 1 seat down in council byelections this year according to the LibDem sponsored website, is a great launchpad for the greatest electoral success since their last one
169. Do you really believe that’ll happen? Will you go on record as saying those you’ve named won’t be back in Parliament after the next GE?
Aye, Purnell resigning would up the stakes a bit. He’s not a big beast in the manner of, say, Geoffrey Howe in 1990, but such is the way Gordon has presided over the cabinet (and before him Tony) that there is only really one big beast left - Darling. And I suppose Miliband’s stature is such that he is at least a medium-sized beast.
We’re really in new territory here. Though we may try to compare the situation with 1990 or 1995, there were more differences than similarities in the situations. There’s no real guide in the past to tell us what will happen next. Terribly exciting, isn’t it?
175 “This could simply be the Tories starting to recover from their trough of poor poll ratings that were as low as the high 40s.”
LOL!
Been out all day but that’s a hell of a poll lead, the labour conference could well be carnage.
(I should also say, disappointing lib dem figures, Clegg really needs to get his finger out).
G - 166 - Gordon is winning this one! (50.3% to 49.7% - landslide!)
144. For a three point one day swing on a three day tracker yesterday’s numbers must have been very good for obama.
177. Lib Dems were up overall in councils and councillors in May
155- What’s so damning about Clegg’s comment is it implies that, even in a world of his own making, your kids would still be in inferior state schools while his kids would be in superior private schools. That is apparently Clegg’s “vision” for his country.
I think this is an outlier.
177 We actually GAINED Councils and Cllrs in May
182 - That has narrowed, when I voted, Gordon had 52%
The Labour party can’t depose Gordon as its leader now, according to it own rules; he can jump but he can’t be pushed, not until next year.
However, the PM is not required to be a party leader, just someone who can command a majority in the House. Normally, that’s the same thing, but now, perhaps not.
Suppose the majority of Labour MPs get together and decide that, never mind party rules they want a safe pair of hands (Jack Straw, for argument’s sake) to lead them. Straw goes to the Palace and says, ‘I can command a majority. Gordon can’t. Make me PM’. What happens next?
Could we get a situation where Gordon clings on as official Labour leader until next autumn, despite being chucked out of Downing Street by his own party?
Someone link me to this Clegg comment?
188- See 113.
179 - I’d say there were two big beasts left - Darling and Straw. If either of those goes then it really is game over…
177 Net gain of 4 |Councils and 58 Cllrs
ALDC say LDs have a net gain of 3 since May
Net loss of 1 with Tories but otherwise plus with Lab and others
Get yer facts right
190.If those two were going so would Hoon.
test @ 7 @ 4.00pm. Apologies. I didn’t note the inclusion of the third party candidiates in that poll.
ARSE (BUTT) takes account of third party candidates if they are on that particular state ballot.
Michael Connerty a Scottish Labour MP has called for Gordon Brown to come out and lead the campaign in Glenrothes to save his job!!
**Gordon Brown responsible for housing bubble, minister implies**
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2975247/Gordon-Brown-responsible-for-housing-bubble-minister-implies.html
190.
I still think Flint going would be enough.
170 Bollock*s. Chamberlain spent every penny on social matters. It was only the persistence of Churchill that forced Chamberlain to beef up the RAF. Without that, we would have been f*ucked”
Source
Winston Churchill, The Wilderness Years by Martin Gilbert IIRC.
191 Big Tall Tim your party is f***ed at the next election. You might even lose your only MEP in Scotland
New PPP poll for Virginia :
McCain 46% .. Obama 48%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_91735.pdf
196 going?
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/
Ok, it’s not great but I think it’s been taken more than a little out of context. All he’s saying (imho) is that him sending his kids to private school (or not) doesn’t indicate what his political opinions are.
And SandS I think you’re especially throwing a lot extra in there. He is expressly separating his political opinions from his children’s personal lives, (whether you think politicians should do that is another matter) and you’re inferring things about his political vision etc.
You don’t seem to have missed his point so much as gone full speed in the opposite direction without looking back.
185 - am I misreading Clegg’s statement - the way I see it, he is saying that he isn’t going to make a ‘laboratory’ out of discussing which schools he might send his children to.
That seems understandable to me.
178. That’s not what I said - I said that on these numbers that’s what would happen. As I don’t know what the actual numbers will be any more than anyone else does, I can’t comment further. I was just enjoying the gloat.
200. What could you possibly have not understood about that post?
199. thats 3 polls covering roughly the same period of time showing obama +4, +2 and tied respectively in virginia
To adapt a famous Times editorial on George Brown and Harold Wilson, Charlie Kennedy drunk is a better man than Nick Clegg sober.
200
197. “Chamberlain spent every penny on social matters”.
Actually, he spent quite a bit on pointless summits and flights to Bavaria, and on sending his mother to take tea with Mussolini.
And 90% of the Tory party backed him all the way, with a fair body of Tories treating the Churchill government with quiet antipathy in May-June 1940. See Roy Jenkins, Churchill (2001).
If Gordon was anything of a political strategist, the only way to go about it is have a leadership election.
Let’s be honest- none of the main possible candidates are going to stand because it’ll only mean destruction at the polls. Perhaps that leaves Cruddas- but I can only see him acting as Labour’s John Redwood.
I think Brown’s got to the point which he will not listen to anything or anyone. He is utterly convinced that it’ll all turn around and it’s not going to. I think his pride is stopping him from cashing in and being the first Prime Minister not to face election … well- ever? (I don’t know)- certainly no 20th Century PM has done it.
I don’t think any of the cabinet has the spine to resign. I think that it’ll happen Thatcher style- they’ll see him one by one and just tell him- the game is up.
Right now, it’s hard to see Brown lasting next week’s conference. I mean, surely all the wrangling so far is just the build up, right?
one word for Labour - Disasterous
191 According to the BBC website your party won a net 1 council and 33 councillors. Big deal. After 11 years of Labour and 7 years of wars given you cant do any better the only way for the LibDems is down
If Obama wins, Gordon should negotiate terms for us to join the United States before the Tories make it into power over here.
212 - Yes but what happens 4/8 years down the track when the GOP make a come back?
here is the LibDem run website for council byelections:
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/ and it states clearly to 11/09/2008 LibDems net loss of 1 seat.
ITN News on Nick Clegg’s speech:
“There weren’t any jokes - not good ones, anyway”
Ouch!
My gosh this poll has really brought out the true colours of our salivating Tory friends on PB.com today!
The financial crisis and its political implications are obviously giving them serious wood.
213. They won’t, cause we’ll have 60+ electoral votes and the British electorate would never vote for the GOP.
217 - I wouldn’t count on that!
209 - Not just Tories, Jack P. Almost the whole political establishment supported Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement. Which is why it’s unfair to heap all the blame on Chamberlain.
214. That site is for the whole of 2008, rather than the current election cycle.
So far you’ve not been able to read the heading of a simple chart, and confused up with down, care for another swing?
LibDem party conference broadcast on right now. Bring back Lord Attenborough. This is just crap. Clegg looks like a naughty schoolboy who has just been caught round the back of the bike shed with a top shelf magazine. Red faced and blushing.
216- Same goes for the Obamamaniacs above.
217. Yes, but Obama might like that!
Surely it would be more than 60. I’d have guessed nearer 80. Perhaps they could split us into 4 states, with the excitement every 4 years of which party will get Wales’ 4 electoral college votes.
Still, dithering Gordon won’t do it.
220 did I say since May? No I said this year. As I said LibDems are heading back to where the Liberal party was before the Gang of 4 almost made you electable.
219. The point with Chamberlain is he walked when he was required to do so! Baldwin won the 1935 election for the Tories and Chamberlin kike Brown took over from the PM who won the election: In Chamberlins case he saw the writing and went, whereas Brown is selfish and obssesed with No.10.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Baldwin
The Only thing that seems to link that Era with this is Brown’s quoting of Mein Campf and his love of choclate (Hitler liked Chocolate cake).
If there was any suggestion of us joining those illiterate savages on the other side of the pond, I for one would be manning the barricades. The very suggestion is enough to make me become a europhile!
C4 News: Morgan Stanley has fallen 41% today….
CH4: Morgan Stanley about to go to the wall, and entire banking system could collapse…
CON to win for 100,000 generations!
Con gain Barnsley!!
Time to put up the statue for CAMERON!!! He and his descendents will rule for 100,000,000 years!!!!!!!!
PS Labour are going to lose.
Mike’s right - the Lib Dems look the big losers in this poll and Clegg’s £30 State Pension is a crass error of monumental proportions, evidencing the fact that he has no comprehension whatever of how ordinary people live their lives and what choices they have to make in terms of budgeting their income.
He’ll find this impossible to live down and, therefore, to all intents and purposes he’s finished politically.
On the basis of this poll, Baxter gives them 8 seats (comfortably accommodated within two taxis therefore). Clearly a substantial understatement of their realistic prospects, but then again Spreadfair’s 44 seat sell price looks rather too big IMHO.
As regards Labour’s unchanged 24%, did the polling take place before or after Tyson’s defection to the Tories? I think we should be told.
225. But Brown isn’t vegetarian?
221. His speech was a poor imetation of Cameron’s right down to the bit at the end (Clegg also needed an autocue as seen on the BBC)!
229 I thought you’d be more excited, Ave It….
226. IN the US they are allowed guns!
I’ve been saying for ever that the LibDem’s would poll 13% at the next General Election.
I may now have to revise that downwards…
228 trouble is the Fed is now hamstrung - it hasn’t got any more money really after its $85 billion to prop up AIG and the LIBOR rates re ensuring the likes of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have major short term issues.
If either of them go it would make it effectively 3 in a week with AIG nationnlised in all but name and really we are heading from here into extremely worrying areas - there is an infestation in what is happening that the markets will find hard to eradicate I fear
209- “197. “Chamberlain spent every penny on social matters”.
Actually, he spent quite a bit on pointless summits and flights to Bavaria, and on sending his mother to take tea with Mussolini.”
Sounds like the modern Democratic Party’s model for foreign affairs. Obama has pledged to meet with all despots who will have him, so there promises to be quite a few re-enactments of the fabled flights to Germany.
Purnell: No confidence in Brown! Game over Brown!
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/James-Purnell-Work-And-Pensions-Secretary-Says-He-Shares-Rebel-MPs-Concerns/Article/200809315101714?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15101714_James_Purnell%2C_Work_And_Pensions_Secretary%2C_Says_He_Shares_Rebel_MPs_Concerns
235 have you moved to decimal points?
238. Purnell gives perhaps the slimiest indication that the cabinet aren’t behind the PM and it’s not even on the front page of the BBC website.
…
… I don’t know why I’m surprised.
206 Dan S. That last Virginia poll has very narrowly tipped the state into Obama’s column in the ARSE (BUTT) projection.
BTW …. via “Political Wire” Diageo/Hotline will be publishing weekly battleground polls from tomorrow.
209/197
The point is that he like Gordo spent naff all on defence and it was only through leaks that Churchill found out how bad it was and thro solid info FORCED Chamberlain to beef up the RAF. Without it we would have definitely been f*cked. This is incontrovertible IMHO.
234 Martin exactly. We used to have the right to carry swords but we outlawed duelling 200 years ago and none of our MPs actually now have swords to hang up on their sword loops in the House of Commons.
Just wondering if it is some sort of omen. Just opened this month’s issue of Family History Magazine which arrived today. The featured surname is Palmer. Apparently the first Palmer is believed to have carried a palm to England from the Holy Land. It lists a number of famous Palmers but strangely the Hon Member for Broxtowe isn’t on the list. Guess he isnt going to be the next Labour leader after all.
This would be the end for McCain if the court case is successful - to kick both Obama and McCain off the Texas ballot:
http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/09/bob_barr_sues_to_remove_obama_1.html
233
238 Welcome back Martin!!!
241 Jack, when is ARSE going to show McCain well clear?!!! (As per Ave it pollin’ sources yo’)
“If Obama wins, Gordon should negotiate terms for us to join the United States before the Tories make it into power over here.”
Count me in!
2001. LloydsTSB wants to acquire Abbey National. Government refuses permission and Abbey National now foreign owned.
2007. LloydsTSB offers to acquire Northern Rock. Government refuses to help and Northern Rock is now nationalised (and being run down).
2008. LloydsTSB is asked to acquire HBOS. Government is desparate for this to happen.
Where is the strategic thinking and long term policies?
243. At this rate the next Labour leader will probably be the MP for Bootle, or Dennis Skinner. They being the only two Labour MPs left in the House of Commons.
It will be like 1900 all over again!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7620720.stm
I just logged on….
*F*CK ME SIDEWAYS*
These are absolutely PHENOMENAL poll leads.
Jesus H. Christ.
They are almost *TOO* good. I’d prefer Cameron to get a decent working majority, not one that makes him complacent.
I’d also trade 50 extra seats in England for 10-15 in Scotland and 10-15 in Wales so we have a UK mandate.
If Cameron *does* win on this scale, by Joe he’d better use it to sort out the EU.
*WOW*
238. It amazing how the Brown/government collapse is coinciding with the financial collapse. Amazing coincidence.
193 thanks Jack. A tremendous move to your man on Gallup last night which is disappointing as all other polls were good for Mac today. Will have to see if the Wall Street meltdown means game over for the GOP. Events dear boy, events.
249. Ave It, would you care to offer us your summing up of the predicament of the Labour party as well?
Hutton on Channel 4 news saying US financial disaster as bad as 1930s
Will Hutton “biggest banking crisis since the 1930s”
10 - These numbers are 18 months before a poll, they illustrate what DC has done for the Conservative Party image in under 3 years. Blair had a good base of anti-Tory platform to start from, DC did not have anywhere near the same sentiment towards Labour, although this has certainly altered a great deal since Brown last year. Putting these numbers, as they stand, into Martin Baxter’s site, it comes out at Con - 493, Lab - 121, LD - 8. These are basic numbers and do not take into account local issues or feelings towards MPs at a local level, the numbers do however point to a substantial Tory victory and the decimation of not only a great number of Labour Members in the House but the near total destruction of the current 3rd Party in Parliament.
The question of changing Leader for the Lib Dems is obviously a non-starter until after the next G/E, not that this would be a problem as under these number Clegg would be out of a seat. As for Labour, I dont think they actually have it in them to stick the knife in, the only way we will see a change is if Brown wants to go instead of taking Labour to a historic election defeat.
236. If Goldman Sachs goes then it really will be cataclysmic.
Completely uncharted territory, we could all be living in caves not long after.
Is anyone stocking up on non perishable food at all ?
246- I knew you guys would come back around to being our poodle again sooner or later!
257 Don’t be so smug, S&S.
If Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs go down, we could swallow you up in a reverse takeover!
253 hello Casino
Its
to the power of 23!
in case someone waives a yellow card at me…..)
(Don’t want to overdo the
249 Last Liberal leader I remember saying that was David Steel and he then went on to win around 25 seats. I would settle for that level of LibDem success, especially since one of the first seats the LibDems should lose is the modern successor to David Steel’s seat, now held by Michael Moore, a decent guy who has done nothing in 20 years.
Any chance we could see the Fed/US government going to China for loans like we did with the US after the second world war?
261 China has its own problems, GIN.
258- If Morgan Stanley and Goldman go, we should all quickly rediscover our hunter-gatherer society skills.
258 - PtP, nah we will all end up owned by the Chinese they have the currency reserves!
252 test. Remember Gallup don’t weight by party ID so they often pick up greater daily noise in the campaign. We’ll have to see if the state polling conducted in this period follows trend.
AVE IT INVESTMENT NEWS
———————-
Glad I didnt take out the Russian unit trust LOL!!!!
It makes ny Oriental fund seem a top investment!!!
@257:
We’d be like the mad, sherry-addled old grandmother coming to set up camp in America’s recently-built loft conversion.
We’ll just sit in the corner, tutting at your irresponisble behaviour, making disapproving faces and smelling of wee.
That said, I much rather England became a state of the US than a province of a federal EU.
Just a thought, if Goldman Sachs and others go down, perhaps the good citizens of the American colonies will come to their senses, save 1 billion dollars between now and early November and invite their lawful sovereign Elizabeth II to appoint a Governor General to run things. She could send Tony Blair or rather the Rt Hon the Earl of Sedgefield and America would get theproxy head of state it wants since he is so idolised over there. We could then surcharge for 232 years of back taxes which might refund some of the billions screwed out of us since WWII.
Jack W for Governor of Upper New York
Ave IT for Governor of the Southern States
Morus for Deputy Governor General
Stars and Stripes for HM Secretary of State for the American Colonies
We could then reintroduce transportation sending G Brown, Millibland etc on the first ship with Harperson and Flint as the breeding females.
“Con gain Barnsley!!”
Ave it will be right as the Conservatives will win the constituency of Stocksbridge and Penistone, the Penistone part being in Barnsley.
Anyone know when the Conservatives last had a Barnsley MP?
@268:
Can I have California and the Pacific Northwest? I promise I’ll look after it.
267 and the news channels would have to have their ticker showing
‘7pm EST, 6PM CT, 5PM MT, 4PM PT….. London uuuuuh Friday week’
261. Yes the negotiations may have already started and the Chinese demands regarding collateral might cause a problem.
“We could then reintroduce transportation sending G Brown, Millibland etc on the first ship with Harperson and Flint as the breeding females.”
I suspect Flint would get more use!
Although not perhaps from Gordon
270 I’ve always fancied Vermont. Pretty in the Fall…which will be renamed Autumn.
One thing is for sure,G Brown will not encourage any take over of anything by the Royal Bank of Scotland otherwise known as the banking arm of the SNP.
DOW rallying? Now *only* down -228?
268 ok y’all i’m in charge now ya hear?!
269 last time watford won two games in a row???
272
Collateral?
Formosa for a start..
Sir James Crosby: Halifax, FSA and Gordon Brown. The link!!!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_James_Crosby
250 PMSL - are they merging with the Tories as Mergers of failing insitutions is all the rage these days lol!
BAHahahahhahahahhahahahhahahahahahahahahahha:
In April 2008, Crosby was appointed by Chancellor Alastair Darling to head up a Working Group of mortgage industry experts to advise the Government on how to improve the functioning of the mortgage market.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_James_Crosby
July 4th Independence Day to become replaced by compulsory jollity on 3rd July - now called Dependence Day!
And sod Hallowe’en - you can damn well have Guy Fawkes Night and like it!
Oh - and drive on the left….and no guns more powerful than would bruise a sparrow.
More later
The chinese must very happy. All the Dollar reserves they hold are now worthless. The next leg of the credit crisis is the total collapse of the $ and the pound.
SeanT - your gaff in Fitzrovia will be 50% cheaper in 6 months given your earnings are in Euros
BTW - Seems Labour will be out of power for decades now!
270 Martin, I thought you would be appointed as HM Representative to the Creationist communities and Governor of the Hamptons, San Francisco, Muscle Beach and all other such communities
274. First thing - spelling lessons.
@283:
The Hamptons? But I’m allergic to WASPs.
274 McCain GAIN Vermont!
268 Easterross. I’ll seek the Carolinas in the first reshuffle, to be renamed Jacobina !!
267/268- Great stuff! … “welcome back, Your Majesty… apologies for that uprising back in the day, bygones be bygones, etc.”
282 “SeanT - your gaff in Fitzrovia will be 50% cheaper in 6 months given your earnings are in Euros”
Cue SeanT hymn of praise to the Euro and the EU…..
LOL
“Gordon Brown’s grip on his Cabinet weakened today amid startling leaks of dissent at yesterday’s meeting.
A senior Cabinet member told the Standard that the special pre-conference session was “excruciating” and that several ministers were clearly unhappy with the Prime Minister’s presentation.
One minister even demanded to know why the No 10 meeting was not discussing Labour’s unpopularity rather than focusing on the Tories.
“This can’t go on for much longer,” the source told the Standard. “It’s not just the country that’s not listening to Gordon any longer, his ministers aren’t listening to him. The meeting was just excruciating - an embarrassment.”
In a strongly worded attack on the PM’s waning authority, the source added: “Something is going to give. Either it will end up as a Cabinet entirely made up of Brownites, or a Cabinet without Brown. There were people staring at their hands, some scribbling on their papers, someone else on a Black-Berry. The mood was awful.” …….
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23556587-details/Brown+humiliated+as+ministers+ignore+him+at+Cabinet+session/article.do
209. Not quite correct about spending. In fact rearmament was carried out at the maximum rate at which they could expand *useful military production*, after 1933. Due to the collapse in the arms firms after WWI and the 30s depression, a major portion of the military industrial base was gone. “Nelson To Vanguard” by D.K. Brown covers the naval side quite well.
Unlike Germany, we spent all the money we could find on building *factories* for building military stuff, not on building up the actually front line military as fast as possible. This was predicated on German re-armament being completed in 1942. Given this was the date that was the actual German deadline for being ready for war, not too shabby. 1939 was just as big a shock for the German General Staff as for Britain - have a look at the miserable tin cans the Germans had for tanks. Only the total unpreparedness of the Poles and the crapulence of the French high command saved them.
By the Act of Re-Union 2008, I, George Bush ,do solemnly declare my allegiance to the Queen and the House of Windsor..
IF the LibDems lose shedloads of seats then I would personally lead the campaign for Julia (stunning and stonking) Goldsworthy to be adopted for the first safe Tory seat available so that beauty returns to the HoC. Next available seat thereafter to Lynne (foxy) Featherstone so that there would always be a stonking female on the Government benches when Julia has to go to the ladies to powder her nose.
289 LOL.
291, as an act of goodwill to our former colonies in the Middle East we could offer to extradite George W Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld to Persia to face trial for war crimes
220. Time for a “LibDems winning here” bar chart?
290. LOL! Imagine the fun Cameron could be having with quotes like that if the Commons was sitting!
Churchill ran down the RAF and RN whist Chancellor of the Exchequer, and introduced the 10 year rule on defence spending.
Churchill reaped the benefit of some important decisions taken by his predecessors. The modern Illustrious Class carriers, KGV class battleships, Town Class cruisers, and destroyers which were commissioned by 1940 were a result of decisions taken by Baldwin and Chamberlain not Churchill. Likewise the RAF received radar, infrastructure Spitfires, Hurricanes, and more modern trainers Harvards + Masters, and Sterling bombers as a result of their decisions. If Chamberlain had kept a diary, would historians view him in a different light? I often wonder what happened to the projected 2nd volume on Chamberlain by David Dilks, it was supposed to cover the years as Chancellor and PM.
285 but Martin just think of the fun you could have converting them to the joys of man on man action.
294 As an even greater show of our magnanimous nature, we’ll throw in Tony Blair too…
This isnt a surprise on the Lib Dems though its a touch low looking maybe by two-three points. Quite simply the LDs were due to suffer a squeeze thanks to a resurgant Tories. Its political tides and its just how it is. All they can is restrict damage right now, the heady days of 2005 aint coming back for a long long time, on all known form.
It does, along with other polls however, just show that things had nothing to do with Ming really. The move to oust him, led ironically by middle aged people, and the way it was done with these stupid leaks reagrding him being too old and all that proved the LD’s didnt get it. It was a move of the weak cowardkly and in some cases plain stupid.
I doubt Labour will make 24% in the polls in a GE too, I’d reckon on a bottom of 27-28% unless they meltdown. And no they arent melting down, they still exist and will continue to do so.
As a very long range buyer of the Tories for the next election I’m delighted.
Completely OT, I mentioned this last week and no one much responded. What about the British Paraolympic team for BBC Team of the Year?
292 - Didn’t that Miss Great Britain gal defect to the Conservatives? If she was elected she would up the phwoar quotient, well from a hetero perspective.
288- As nobody seems to want it, I would gladly take Washington DC, and my home state of Maryland (Northern Virginia is optional)
301????? Well Im all for that myself!
298 Easterross. Have you ever been to San Francisco ?? …. it’s almost compulsory !!
There seems to be a bit of an end-of-term atmosphere on the site this evening.
Meanwhile - is it normal for SportingIndex to suspend a market for so long (so far three hours)? Maybe they think the next general election has been cancelled?
259. Ave It - Screw that, go for the RED card!!
298. True. Incidently, the 10 year rule was lifted in 1933 due to intelligence of the German rearmament plans - to be ready for war in 1942.
The push for spending came from the services. After ‘33, the politicians stopped resisting the calls for British re-armament.
Hawai’i please. But you lot can still visit the beaches.
292. I sure the fragrant Esther McVey will knock those two broads into a cocked hat when she becomes the member for Wirral West!
Gold up $87
Oil up $4.50
Dollar down 1.6% versus Euro
As the US $ falls, safe havens beckon…
(oil shares:-)
306 As the Tories are going to win so handsomely, time to introduce all-totty short-lists?
Back in the real world, if as seems likely the Chinese have to bail out the US economy,what will be the price? It appears the Chinese are already the largest creditors of the US, so presumably it is only a matter of time before the heirs of Chairman Mao start to flex their economic muscles.
Clearly here if HBOS is allowed to be sacrificed then is any large company safe from the speculators? Woolworths announced losses of 100 million this morning and with unemployment rocketing and retail sales now starting to tumble, surely we will soon see some of the retail giants start to call in the receivers? Equally given that every High St has around half a dozen mobile phone providers, will we start to see branches of Vodafone, O2 and all the others start to close.
I said months ago that a Brown recession would result in the huge out of town shopping malls like Bluewater become like “ghost towns”. If the retail industry really takes a tumble then expect unemployment to explode.
If I were Labour’s man in the grey suit - her’s my best case scenario:
Keep Gordon until after the Glenrothes defeat. gordon announces that he is resigning and takes all the blame.
Jack Straw is the only nominee to replace him, after giving a private assurance to Miiliband/Purnell/Harman/Cruddas that he will stand down as leader in late 2012. ‘Gordon has gone’ boosts Labour up in the polls to the low 30s.
PM Straw calls a June super election.
Cameron wins convincingly but Labour obviously do much better than currently - saving around 50 extra seats.
Opposition leader Straw carries on for 3 years, - after all we all agree that mess was all Gordon’s fault
One of the ‘Young turks’ then takes over - poll boost from being a fresh face.
2013 PM Cameron calls GE. Labour have the chance to run as a credible (ish) alternative. Again defeated but claw back seats in their old heartlands in Scotland (SNP’s bubble is starting to burst), North of England (LDs have now split over Clegg’s failed tax policies and BNP are falling back).
2017 PM Cameron calls GE, Labour have realistic chance.
What i think will happen: Gordon’s personality ensures he struggles on. Young Turks realise they’re going to take a kicking regardless and decide to keep him as the post election whipping boy for all their ills, buoyed by the fact that the LD threat from the left is in as much electoral trouble as them.
Be sure to turn off your engine next time you’re caught in a traffic jam, lest you receive a fine:
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1056633/Drivers-face-20-fine-leaving-engines-running-traffic-jams.html
Just one question: how the h*ll will you ever get out of the traffic jam if everybody has to turn their car off once they’re in one?! I don’t know if this is a sensible solution…
297
I dont agree. Martin Gilbert IIRC directly contraverts this. He says that information provied by an insider constantly wrongfooted Camberlain and forced more money to be spent on defence. I would like a reference point to your assertion.
306 Chris, Esther is indeed a very attractive lady and surely she should be looking at a majority of over 5000? However she looks like an old fashioned girl whereas both Lynne and Julia have that air of excitement about them.
308. I read in one of the less reputable national dalies that the stunning Gemma Garrett, she of the the Beauties for Britain party and parliamentary candidate at the Crewe and Nantwich, Henley and Haltemprice and Howden by-elections, was considering joining the Conservative party having developed a ‘taste’ for politics.
Good news. Get her on the A-list, or should that be DD - list?
I take it another day of financial crisis has seen Macavity hiding in the bunker?
310
If Labour keep GB as PM, your last paragraph will be hopeless.
There will be no young turks after a GE :they will ALL lose their seats - apart from E Balls.
Seriously, Labour WILL rebel. If they want 120 seats…
Anyone think inflation is going to fall? The US Government has just printed $40billion to rescue AIG an dis going to print a LOT more. The US dollar is a one way bet. Commodities priced in dollars are going up…
This is early 1970s Vietnam war deficit financing x100.
312 well unless they’re fellas it won’t interest me lol!
310. Small snag - the young turks aren’t going to be around after the next election.
I’m sure that Will Hutton would love nothing more than for the entire World banking system to collapse, as it would prove for him that capitalism didn’t work.
Unfortunately, he, and some others here, are likely to be disappointed. I was born 41 years ago. In that time, we’ve witnessed:-
a) Harold Wilson’s devaluation of Sterling
b) The first oil shock
c) The three day week
d) The recession of 1974-75
e) The secondary banking crisis
f) The IMF bailing out the British government
g) The Winter of Discontent
h) The second oil shock
i) The recession of 1980-81
j) Black Monday
k) The recession of 1990-91
l) The Dot Com bubble
m) The 9/11 bombings.
More than enough to return us to an economy based on barter, it would seem. And yet, real incomes are now more than twice as high as they were when I was born.
The system is resilient, and can cope with shocks. Hutton, you may recall, published The State We’re In, in 1994, all about how the UK was an economic basket case, at the start of 54 quarters of reasonably rapid economic growth. The best he can hope for is that a stopped clock is right twice a day.
313. Without a doubt Lynne and Julia (i’ll never forget seeing her spandex clad on Channel 4’s ‘The Games’) are attractive things but for there is nothing quite like a seasoned mature lady, even better when she is a stilletoed Tory!
307
out of date
oil up nearer $6…
310. If Straw takes over unopposed in November, could he really carry on until May without calling an election? I could see him being able to brazen out the winter, but come the better weather in March, I’d be expecting/demanding an election.
321
You mean a Straw poll
304 It’s perfectly normal, Richard. In fact one way of finding out if a poll is due is to check whether SI is suspended.
I doubt it will be back up until mid-morning tomorrow. Be patient. It should bring good news for you and I.
323 PtP - Thanks
309. Actually no. Yes the Chinese may be involved to some extent in bailing out because it literally has tro to protect itself (AIG have big exposure in China for example), but China has its own problems right now. Its losing competiveness (the price of transporting goods isnt helpful) and its also got its fingers burned by getting involved in US financial investments.
Some Chinese have the conspiracy theory that the West encouraged the Chinese to pour money into what have turned out to be very ropey investment vehicles.
322 Get yer coat, MTF…
320. So, you think we are on The End Of Capitalism XIV???
What about the 19th Cent panics, ‘29 etc?
I’m thinking of starting a company to cash in on the end of capitalism (t-shirts, movies, interviews, stock predictions…) - it seems to be a steady, predictable occurrence…. anyone interested?
335
and my hat!
I’ve just run the 52/24/12 poll through Baxter’s electoral calculator.
Apparently I’m going to have a Conservative MP, in Paisley and Renfrewshire North!
338
Dont forget Broxtowe as nailed on!
320. I am thinking of starting a company offering mortgages on caves
336 Always beware the argument “this time it’s different” either when people predict financial problems leading to Apocalypse Now, or when they predict that house prices can only ever rise by 10%+ a year.
Heres a question for the anoraks. Was the 1992 election on April 9th? held seperatly to the 1992 local elections? What I’m getting at, is could the local and euro elections set for June 11th 2009 be broght forward if a new PM was to call an election for March or April?
Ha ha ha ha
About time a Labour Cabinet minister resigns. Many of them now have very little to lose since they will lose their seats unless he gets the boot.
In other news, I’m hiding all my money under my mattress.
Been away from the computer since early afternoon.
Crazy poll. I reckon it’s rogue, until corroborated by others. Tories are doing great, but the Lib Dem figure looks too low, and the Tories’ too high, I think.
343 as long as it isnt Martin Days mattrass!
342 - Elections were held separately, I believe.
re 342.The 1992 general election took place three weeks before the local elections that year.
The Euro election are held through the EU at the same time and could not be moved.
344 - Yes but your bete noir Ed Balls would be gone!
Lloyds/HBOS deal is done according to SKY. Details at 7am tomorrow
BBC reporting that Tzipi Livni is projected to win the Kadima leadership.
316 I agree (trying not to gloat)that there won’t be many Labour Turks of any age to choose from if GB stays.
But I think GB’s ego/personality will not allow him to go quietly into that dark night like Captain Oates. One gets the feeling that he would rather bring everything down around him if the knives really do come out.
He has many years of experience of behind the scenes bullying and domination of the Labour parliamentary party. He knows where a lot of bodies are buried (so to speak) which he can and probably will fall back on to try to keep him in No 10 till the bitter end
The Turks would have to weigh up if the prospect of that level of bloodletting going public could result in an even more destructive poll rating - say it with hushed tones… sub 20%.. and virtually certain political oblivion.
311 - I don’t want a red card or this site would be deprived of my US 08 analysis!!
Mike Smithson
Morus
Double Carpet rule ok!!!
(Just keeping in with the management!!)
346/347
OK, thanks very much.
So, the euro/local elections are June 11th and thats it. But theres nothing to say you could have a general election in March or April and another election in June.
So, if Brown is replaced, I would definatly want an election as soon as is realistically possible (in other words as soon as the weather allows and the nights get lighter) which to me would mean calling the election in March for Thursday April 2nd - The first Thursday after the clocks go forward.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/1208823.stm
Those were the days my friends, we thought they’d never end…
345. Or Charles Kennedy’s!!!
I have not left a Bonanza map of the world on my matress for 10 years!
353 - There is nothing legalistically to stop a General in March, locals in May and Euros in June. The facts of life are that the parties wouldn’t be able to afford it.
348, huzah!
Actually, even as a rightwinger who wants a Tory victory, a 250 seat majority would be… excessive. That said, I’d be thrilled to see Balls go.
What is likely to be the impact on the Scottish situation of moving the HBoS HQ from Edinburgh to London with thousands of jobs going north of the border. I can’t see Alex Salmon letting that happen without some major collateral damage on whats left of NuLab.
356. Well thats there problem.
If Labour get rid of Brown I want/expect a general election at the earliest avaliable opportunity. I probably wouldn’t get one, but thats another matter. 
358, “poor regulation by London Labour has cost Scottish jobs”?
357. My secretary lives in the Morley and Outwood constituency and I have stressed how important it is that she votes Conservatives and to tell all her friends.
Marvellous isnt it, notwithstanding that this poll could be make or break(forget the make)for Gordon. The BBC wesite fails to mention it, irrespective of their not commenting on polls policy unless its mega. Disgraceful IMHO
Israel exit polls:
Channel 1 Livni 47 Mofaz 37
Channel 2 Livni 48 Mofaz 37
Channel 10 Livni 49 Mofaz 37
Livni projected to be new Kadima leader
This (if accurate) is a stunning poll.
I note that the last Ipsos-MORI poll is the best Tory result[*] on the “last poll by each pollster”:
Ipsos-MORI (17/8) 48-24-17
YouGov (12/9) 46-27-16
ComRes (7/9) 44-25-17
ICM (17/8) 44-29-19
Populus (31/8) 43-27-18
[*] and hence, by the Golden Rule, the most accurate
Could this 2-minute advert change the course of the election ?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/17/obama-takes-on-economy-pa_n_127021.html
You be the judge…
361, huzah!
Apparently Balls has been having difficulty recruiting people to help him campaign. So, if anyone has spare time a wicked streak… why not volunteer?:p
362, mixed feelings. The BBC’s blatant bias irks me, as a taxpayer, and yet right now it makes bugger all difference. If they try to hide this, those in the know will still be aware, and it won’t alter Brown’s ever dwindling life expectancy. Hell, if he holds on this result could be reflected at the next election.
362. Is it embargoed? Sky News haven’t mentioned it either and usually they would be all over something like this.
fair point.
Unconfirmed Rasmussen polls for Oregon, Wisconsin and Rhode Island.
Oregon - M-47 O-51 .. Wisconsin M-46 O-48 .. Rhode I .. M-39 O-58
Brave performance by BATE to hold Real Madrid to 1-0 at half time……….
Whilst Tories here fantasize about a return to 1931, their Canadian counterparts are seeing a majority government start to slip away. Forget the headline: this is a tracker poll so today’s numbers show the Grits much closer to the Tories.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/500671
On the British front - everything’s going to be alright. On a 12% poll I think the Lib Dems would win at least twenty seats, including a couple of gains from Labour.
367. Yes, it’s embargoed to midnight I believe.
366. I notice the BBC was doing its best to talk up Brown’s involvement in the Lloyds TSB/HBOS merger earlier as well…obviously the instructions given earlier in the week to ‘go easy’ on the government have now become general…
367 Glenn Oglaza dropped a hint in his report from conference stating that the Lib dems were lloking for a turnaround in the polls, that a poll is due tonight and then cryptically that the turnaround has not appeared as yet…
Maybe that’s what friends are for…
couple of interesting comments on the Guido thread - one by tartwatch @ 5.56 and one @ 7.44 by martin day(!?) sort of make one wonder.
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/meltdown-tories-breakthrough-to-52-ftse.html
CNN reports on Obama’s efforts in Indiana :
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/indiana.battleground/index.html
When I was in Oxford’s Cafe Nero there was a nice bit of graffiti
Q How many City financiers does it take to change a light bulb?
A 5 - 1 to drop it and 4 to repackage it’s future light giving potential and sell it off before it hits the floor and smashes.
I thought it summed up my experience of investment banking quite well and I worked for one of the good guys (Bob Diamond).
tzipi Livni wins:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7620215.stm
377 did u work for bob at barcap?
358 When Scottish companies take over English ones or American ones … then Alex Salmond exults about the strength of the Scottish economy (RBS taking over NatWest or Scottish Power taking over Pacifcorp).
When Iberdrola takes over Scottish Power or Lloyds/TSB takes over HBOS, then Alex Salmond demands drastic changes to the financial markets.
DOW rally has gone into reverse, back down 300 points again…
379 yes, but an obscure outpost in Peterborough with a lot of time on trains to London and planes to jersey.
The Cameron 3H manifesto, bring back :
i. Hunting
ii. Handguns
iii. Hanging
380 - Well he’s been used to being a protest politician. It is going to take him a while to realise he needs to take responsibility for anything. To be honest, he needs a real opposition before he will have to.
382 I agree he is one the best blokes in the business. Barcap have made out like bandits on the Lehman deal.
381- approaching 350 now
386 400 now…
Dow Jones just breached the 400 down.
I thought Nick Clegg’s speech was pretty good. He could have cut back on the real life examples and the eulogy to human nature a bit, but he came over better than either Ming or Charles Kennedy generally did in their conference speeches.
The new tax policy has received a lot of mainly favourable comment in the on-line press, although Nick Robinson seemed to strike a mocking note on the Six O’Clock News. I’d expect more positive coverage in the print media tomorrow. The only real negative from this Conference has been Clegg’s £30 pension clanger.
I still think we’ll get a post-Conference boost once the first poll comes out. I’m hoping that the Mori poll is an outlier and not an indication of a skewed public perception of our new (more progressive) stance on taxation.
Maybe it’s a verdict on the leader of your party saying the basic state pension was thirty quid, and then boasting about the illegal robocalls he’s going to make during champions league/corrie, Andrew.
389. I still think we’ll get a post-Conference boost once the first poll comes out. I’m hoping that the Mori poll is an outlier and not an indication of a skewed public perception of our new (more progressive) stance on taxation.
LOL which planet ru on?????????????????
Late to this but wow what a poll, but even as a Conservative, I say it is an outlier. There is just not a cat in hells chance that any party will ever poll 52% in a general election. I remember those polls just after Tony Blair became Labour leader in 1994/5 with some showing them at 60%, admittedly on old polling methods. I just laughed them off at the time, remember that Labour ‘only’ got 44% at the height in 1997. I’d still be extremely surprised if the Conservatives got more than 43/44% of the popular vote next time.
389
Trouble is noone will have heard it, the only thing people will remember is that Cleggy thinks the state pension is 30 quid a week. It coulnt have been a more idiotic and out of touch thing to say. I bet DC is mugging up on DSS rates . etc…. Lib Dems to go sub 10% ????
389. It was interesting to see Simon Heffer being so generous about Clegg in the Telegraph. Heffer seems to think he’s our best option - certainly no Neil Kinnock. Didn’t see that alliance coming.
The Telegraph a Lib Dem paper?
Dow approaching 450 points down and 4% drp, NasDaq and the S&P off by 4.5% and more on the day
After Monday/Tuesday and the bail out this is nasty
Dow over 450 down now - its lost 300 points in the last 60 mins or so
384 Now that HBOS hae been killed, I imagine attention will now turn to RBS, which has already taken a helluva beating.
Properly speaking, the blame belongs to RBS’ management for their spectacuarly ill-advised takeover of ABN Ambro at top dollar.
Be rather surprised if any “Scottish” bank remains after all this.
Dow 450 down, terrible last half hour
DOW Looks to have close down about 450
Just referred to the ‘BATE boys’ on sky………
DOW CRUNCHDOWN - end of the US stock market!
But McCain will save it!!!!
Go GOP!!!!!!!!!
389. I wouldn’t hold your breath! He is not taken seriously anymore! If he ever has been!
It’s not child’s play for Nick Clegg *One mum shouted: “Clegg’s lost the plot,” as he tried to keep up with the children in front of giggling reporters.*
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/lib_dem_conference/article1693950.ece
Nick Clegg ‘out of touch’ and all wrong on pensions
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/2970403/Nick-Clegg-out-of-touch-and-all-wrong-on-pensions.html
396
The UK economy is very well positioned to survive any economic turbulence….
When I was coming back home tonight, heard someone on radio 5 say that there was a 9/11 sense about the financial markets today. It’s as though we’ve lit the blue touch paper and set a domino effect off. Can the authorities stop this domino effect? Nobody knows.
I’ve predicted economic gloom here for a long time, but even I’m surprised by the speed of it all, and now yield on US Treasuries is at the lowest since Pearl Harbour, absolutely amazing. And now the real nuclear bullet in this crisis threatens to explode - the AAA credit rating of the US itself under review / potentially on negative watch. If that happens all bets are off. What are the Fed going to do come the next bailout?, now that they’re effectively running out of money after the $85bn spent on AIG.
320. Check out “Nelson To Vanguard” by D.K. Brown - the navy was ordering stuff first then mentioning it to the Treasury. Who always said OK… It got to the stage of ordering destroyers on the basis of how many building slips there were *plus* the number of new building slips they hoped would be ready in time to lay the new ships down…. The limit was the state of British industry. It was said that German rearmament was a mile wide, but and inch deep. British rearmament was an inch wide and a mile deep - much of the effort went into factory building in the early stages.
Some areas never recovered - gun turrets for ships were a terrible problem, as were turbines. British diesels of the period were rubbish and in short supply. Welding and longitudinal framing for ships was nearly non-existent.
You are correct that this was passively let through by Baldwin and Chamberlin - though Churchill’s efforts among others.
349 Good. Thanks for that.
Bloomberg - Morgan Stanley releasing proclamations to staff confirming how strong they are….. ouch
‘the AAA credit rating of the US itself under review / potentially on negative watch.’
LOL Gordon has really wrecked the World economy!!!!!!
406 I do think MS are strong - but to have to keep affirming it does rather smack of desperation!
406 - Oh hell, that was the first sign we were going bust when I worked for Arthur Andersen!
The US was about a year ahead of US with the house price falls, so are we going to have to wait until next year for the crunch to really hit us? After all, our house prices have only just started falling.
403: It is all extremely gloomy.
Well, not everything
Arsenal are losing HA HA HA
Some of the big wigs on Bloomberg are suggesting the Dows behaviour indicates another AIG out there - not sure how but they seem spooked rather - the VIX (something to do with volatility) is approaching 40 - this apparantly is where it was before Black Monday and in 1987 and is a strong correlator to a big drop.
Get the feeling the Americans are talking themselves into a crash
410 indeed the UK house prices are still 30% too high….
MELTDOWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just in time for the GE!
Worst econmic crisis since the ASTEROID hit us!!!
411 BRILLIANT!!
Arsenal only as big as Tottenham and West Ham
Beating Jack to it hopefully -
Time/CNN Polls:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
http://thepage.time.com/
319. That is not true. They have got it wrong.
Anyway, what a great poll!!
Bye bye Gordon…
415. Some very nice polls for Obama there. Particularly NC.
412 - quite right there, and the once in a generation (or lifetime) stock market collapses occur when markets are heavily oversold, October 1987 being the classic case in point. 25% off the stock market high is nothing when compared to the 73% lost in the UK 1972-74 bear market, or the nigh on 90% lost on the US market in the Great Depression. FWIW I believe that we could easily revisit the March 2003 low of 3212 on the FTSE once all this has played out.
Some polls coming up here http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results.html but they have no track record so proceed with caution.
412 - If volatility is that high we are looking at a steep correction. LIBOR is way way too high when comparitive to Base rates. This is going to get worse and the fall out will be a nightmare.
417 - I think NC is a sucker state, like PA for McCain, it gets close but will revert to type later.
Re Scotland and the BoS, Alex Salmond was on the main 6.30pm news programme in Scotland, BBC Reporting Scotland, denouncing it as the behaviour of spivs and speculators. If the job losses are anything like the 40000 being talked about expect the SNP to unleash a tirade against London Labour incompetence.
It is already being portrayed as an attempt to destroy Edinburgh as the 4th largest financial centre in Europe.
Just had a thought - we should christen this latest opinion poll the “Ave It Poll”. But then, with the way things are going, what do we christen a potential future poll that puts the Conservatives above 52%?
New thread now up.
Cheers
Double Carpet
420. Has anyone noticed that hundreds of billions of the write offs in all of this were the sub-prime stuff. How much is left?
I am wondering just how low sub-prime repackaged debt has to go before it is a no-brainer to…. buy.
The day that Warren Buffet piles in to CDOs is the day this is over.
415. much better polls for obama there, in line with the improvement we’ve seen in his national ratings
421. I’d agree with that Paul. The one that interests me is Michigan. McCain is consistently closer there than I would expect. It should be another “sucker” state but I’m not so sure.
418 i agree - bit worried about my £250pm unit trust investments, already down 10% over average of two months invested……
Started May 08 so £1000 in current value £900.
427 McCain will win Michigan - I have said that here before..
AND YOU KNOW THAT, JACK W!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
Latest update [about 10-15 minutes ago] from ‘Mystic’ Peston..
394.”The Telegraph a Lib Dem paper?”
Well the Telegraph is flirting with Labour, UKIP and the Libdems, basically anyone but the Tories.
Just watching Clegg’s speech on Newsnight - notwithstanding his poor delivery and his noddy style arguments, his economic knowledge was pretty poor, and betrays a poor understanding. Just one example - one of the throw away comments he made was concerning having the MPC responsible for setting interest rates to control house prices - presumably rather than inflation. What does he think that will that do to inflation? Nigel Lawson finally demonstrated the foolishness of using interest rates to control anything other than inflation. Clegg showed why his party will never progress and why they are perpetual losers in national elections. 12% in the polls is flattering him.
You do realise that the Lib Dems will be spinning the robo-phone polls like mad to try and make them a credible party.
They did it last year I seem to remember. Using dubious and leading questions to get the result they needed for a press release.
It’ll be something along the lines of:
‘Do you agree with Tax Cuts?’…
The result sent out to the press being ‘85% of people support the Lib Dems on their tax policy’…
Did anyone get a robo-call tonight and if so, what did it ask etc?
Easterross, But wasn’t it BoS that wanted to take over Halifax? And, hasn’t Salmond put huge effort into winning over the Scottish business community? Won’t they not take too kindly to remarks like spivs?
Maybe we should all follow this advice!!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/everyone-making-everything-worse%2c-all-the-time-200809171261/