How changing poll methodology is adding to Gord’s problems
September 19th, 2008 
Was “public sector weighting” behind MORI’s Tory 52%?
One of the biggest polling changes that we’ve seen in years was introduced by Ipsos-MORI in the summer following a review after the London Mayoral elections. For in trying to work out why its surveys seemed to be over-stating Labour the firm discovered that people working in the public sector were being over-sampled.
So a new calculation has been created and this has been one of the reasons why the firm is now showing the worst position for Labour of any of the firms.
Just look at the detailed table above to see the impact. Highlighted are the responses from those who worked in the public sector and from the raw sample almost a quarter (244 from 1017) were in this category. This is far higher than the actual proportion in the adult population and the pollster scales that back by more than half to 119.
But look further at the numbers and you can see what a big impact this had on the overall outcome. For the public sector workers split C32%-L32%-LD20%. Compare that with the non-public sector workers and you get a split of C49%-L29%-LD14%. (These shares, it should be noted, are before MORI has applied its certainty to vote filter which normally provides a further uplift in the Tory position).
So by reducing the importance of the public sector segment the poll gives higher figures for the Tories and a lower one for Labour. But the biggest sufferer is the Lib Dem party. What I find amazing is how differently public sector workers responded compared with the rest of the sample.
My respect for MORI increased enormously following their reaction to their London Mayoral election performance. They stopped publishing political polls while they tried to assess what went wrong. The firm remains the only one of the main pollsters not to weight by party ID or by what people say they did at the last election. It could be that public sector weighting is a better solution.
I have asked the firm what the outcome of this week’s poll would have been without this element. I’ll publish it when they’ve worked it out.
Mike Smithson
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3am:
Dow Future up 210
S&P Future up 32
This is on top of last night’s gains - ie implies Dow up 600 since London close.
If London reacts pro rata then estimate FTSE up 300 when opens.
All of this excitable talk about a complete Labour meltdown, with fewer than 100 seats or whatever, is all very interesting. But the reality is that when the next General Election comes along, there will be a much more balanced and intensive scrutiny of the vacuous and ridiculous Cameron and Clegg, and their standard identikit imperialist policies of social repression and degeneracy.
Whether Gordon Brown is still the leader or not, the Labour Party will get the votes of at least a solid core of 28%(ish) and will have at least 160 seats (probably more than 200). The Conservative Party will get fewer than 44% and not much more than 400(ish) seats. 20 months is a long time in politics, and even if GB is still PM it could still be a lot closer than that.
After all, the voters will realise that there is not going to be any easy solution to the current critical meltdown of the entire global capitalist system from any of the usual bourgeois social-democratic clone parties, and there is no reason to think that any one of the three main party leaders has got a magic wand.
Very relevant analysis Mike - I have long expected some such difference in voter behaviour.
It would, after all, be rational to expect voter intention to vary when the actual conditions of people’s lives are so different.
For example, if you work in the private sector, loss of job is a great fear in times of economic crisis; if you work in the public sector, unemployment is something that happens to other people.
Again, if you are retired, your reaction to inflation is very different depending on whether you have an index-linked pension (mostly retired public sector workers) or not.
The translation of this to electoral results in a FPTP system would not be a UNS though, because certain areas have a very much higher proportion of public sector workers than others, which would lead me to believe that the scale of Tory victory in the next election would be very much less than UNS would predict.
FTSE to open up 288 - IG.
Shorts will roast.
4 - To be honest I’m a little concerned about the self congratulation of the traders on this. There is still more bad news to come out, plenty more companies are holed below the waterline. A lot of the indicators are pointing at a major stock price slump at some point, this may or may not come to pass but trying to avoid it if it is coming is a really stupid idea.
5
I called a rally yesterday as I thought Goldman was not at risk, they are too good at risk management to have bet the farm. After a global nuclear war the only thing left will be cockroaches, Maddona and Goldman.
6 - Yeah you will get rallies from time to time, we just haven’t had the all out selling that this situation probably merits. And if the authorities think that stopping short selling will avoid a major plunge then they are living in la la land. It may not happen and I hope it doesn’t but looking at the indicators, they really arent good!
The Scottish National Party saw a good result in yesterday’s Baillieston by election (Glasgow City Council), caused by the resignation of former councillor John Mason, now the new MP for Glasgow East. The SNP’s David Turner is the new councillor for the ward.
The full results are not published online yet, but the result last time was:
Labour 4 770 45.96%
Nationalist 3 449 33.24%
Conservative 678 6.53%
Solidarity 466 4.49%
Liberal Democrat 392 3.78%
Socialist 224 2.16%
Unionist 216 2.08%
Green 181 1.74%
(courtesy of Vote 2007)
… so the SNP have overturned quite a significant Labour lead in the first preference votes in order to achieve the notional “hold”.
I assume the full results will be up on the council’s website later today. These Single Transferable Vote results tables no doubt take a while to compile!
Does anyone know if it was decided at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, nth round?
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=2278.0
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7621735.stm
1 - Mike L - FTSE to rally 300
4 - EDW - FTSE to open up 288
Dear Lord, I hope so. The rally would have to extend to 506 points to take us out of the bear market and by 1,650 points just to bring it back to where it was when Darling became chancellor.
Gordon’s been “in power” for 450 days today - and the FTSE has dropped more than 25%.
I predict the big opening IG is calling then the sell off. FTSE will close up about 210.
Prolly gonna look stupid come 4.30pm.
One problem with MORIs methodology could be that a lot more people say they work in the public sector than actually work there according to a precise definition. For example, there are very few cleaners and security staff actually employed in the public sector - they are almost all employed by private sector contractors. Yet if you stopped one of them in the street and asked them where they worked, they might easily say it is “in the public sector” because the public sector is the ultimate paymaster.
If these, and other “real” public sector respondents are only getting a half weighting in MORIs result, there could be a significant over-estimate of Tory support.
8. Again, from Vote-2007:
Candidate Party Number of First Pref Votes
TURNER, David Scottish National Party (SNP) 2318
MUIR, Andy Scottish Labour Party 2167
ANDERSON, John Scottish Conservative and Unionist 259
JACKSON, David Scottish Liberal Democrats 159
MCLEISH, Tricia Solidarity - Tommy Sheridan 74
BAILLIE, Charles British National Party 73
O’DONNELL, Daniel Scottish Socialist Party-Scrap Council Tax 58
CRAWFORD, Moira A Scottish Green Party 45
DICKIE, Ian SUP, Proudly Scottish, Proudly British 43
Turnout: 22.68%
Not much sign of the ‘Cameron effect’ here.
… and before Mark Senior gets here, the Lib Dems won a council by-election from the Tories in Suffolk last night, and just missed taking a Green seat in Leeds on a 19% swing.
A whole article, and not the least hint that this was filched straight off the web rather than the product of careful thought and investigation at the Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4783663.ece
A complete disgrace, and the journalists concerned should be ashamed of themselves. Should we head for Wapping behind Morus with pitchforks?
8 - is Salmond going to make a lot of fuss over HBOS IN Glenrothes - Scotland’s 2nd biggest company etc? He doesn’t need to.
12% LD rating - ooh I say - as Dan Maskell used to say. There will be loads of polls to compare to over the coming week. Trouble they are impacted by extraordinary events, as GE could in a week as tumultous as this.
Flash Gordon would not be rewarded even saving the Earth from desruction. The only polls worth watching are those Labour party activists.
I’ll lurk until Monday, but they I’ll out with very sore head for a few days, caused by rather more than poor LD ratings.
FTSE up 264 on Tradefair (5146). Governments seem to be prepared to prop up financial institutions or change the rules to save them. Not sure why - the loss of Lehman Bros will make no difference to anyone except the employees.
The next phase of the crisis is the collapse of “real” businesses XL, Alitalia are only the first - watch out for retailers, car manufacturers, and all their support industries.
15 - meant to say “GE could not happen in a week a tumultous as this.”
long to using a pc not one of these fiddly keypads…
12-Actually good result for the Tories!
Let me explain:
If the Tories are flatlining in exceedingly safe traditionally Labour seats, then where is their rise coming from? Safe and marginal seats. Glasgow Tories would much rather their vote held steady in Glasgow but rise by more than average in East Renfrewshire, Stirling, etc.
Ditto they would prefer a smaller than average % increase in Liverpool as opposed to a higher than average rise in other Merseyside seats.
SBS - you sound remarkably cheerful - hang on in there! The Mori poll should be treated with caution until they sort their methodology out. Why should they be the only ones to “over sample” Public Sector workers.
More importantly best of luck for Monday - hope you are well enough to watch the love in that surely will be the Labour conference.
12. Thanks Alan!!
That’s what I get from surfing on a mobile - I rarely make it to page no 10!
So, in summary:
Result - Baillieston ward Sept 2008
1st preference votes
(+/-% result May 2007)
SNP 44.6% (+11.4%)
Lab 41.7% (-4.25%)
Con 5.0% (-1.6%)
LD 3.1% (-0.7%)
Lab to SNP swing = 7.8%
Alan, do we know how many rounds of voting it took? Cos the SNP and Labour were very close after the 1st prefs.
13 - was the LD gain former Tory PB.commer Ben Redsell’s seat?
Peter Kellner of YouGov has posted about the MORI poll
“When an opinion poll comes along that is out of line with previous surveys, there’s a good chance that two things will happen. First, it will attract a huge amount of publicity. Secondly, it will turn out to be wrong …Could MORI’s figures be right? Yes. Are they likely to be right? No …”
Full post at
http://nextleft2.blogspot.com/2008/09/polls-apart.html
18 - I would not be surprised at a lot of safe Tory seats having near 80% turnout next time. That is stacking up votes unnecessary. Greedy really. Typical!
I am not convinced at this new weighting, especially since the result it produces is immediately so ‘changed’.
If their sample is so grotesquely over-representing public sector workers (and there’s a huge issue about the correct definition of this, by both employees and by firms these days) then surely it says something about their sampling techniques (such an over-sampling level must be way outside the normal variation) and their private-sector sub-set might also be equally-biased in another manner.
A MORI poll is still just a MORI poll. Would you really pay for one if it was offered to you?
20. Apparently it went to the final round.
Final stage
SNP 2511
Lab 2313
22 - One problem with that analysis is that the MORI poll hasn’t received all that much publicity. And the whole analysis smacks of Mr Smithson’s rule that a rogue poll is one that you don’t agree with.
The MORI poll is certainly unlikely to be right in every particular. There is, however, no particular reason to assume that the Tories aren’t somewhere around the 50% mark.
Tradefair showing a “spike” on the FTSE since 7am - High is shown as 7138 - unfortunately I missed it would have been a good point to sell from. Are IG, spreadfair, etc. still allowing selling (shorting) of financial stocks?
18. Peter2 - “Actually good result for the Tories!”
LOL. If you are happy with the Tories at 5% then that is fine by us!
Actually 5% in the east end of Glasgow is not too bad for the Tories. In the last few years the Tories have polled less than 1% in several Scottish council by elections. But to their great credit, at least the Tories put up a candidate in every Scottish by election, unlike the scaredy-custard Lib Dems.
I seems to remember that the record low Scottish Tory vote was about 0.7%, 2 or 3 years ago. I’m sure some statistician will inform us if there was a lower one…..
25.
Oooooooh….. THAT is what you call a nail-biter! Soooooo sweet
I would just love to have seen those Labour faces at the count!
Aberystwyth Town Council results:
Rheidol Ward; Lib Dem 243, Plaid 167. Lib Dem hold.
Penparcau Ward; Plaid 141, Labour 117, Lib Dem 46. Plaid gain from Independent.
Conservatives do not seem to have put up candidates.
Yesterday, the troubled US insurer AIG used $28 billion of its $85 billion loan facility from the Fed. How much of mess were they in?
Dianne Abott on This Week last night said that she understands that if Labour lose the Glenrothes by election, then the cabinet will move against Gordon Brown.
yes it was SBS. Great to see you here! We’re all thinking of you. Hang in there, come back soon, sore head notwithstanding.
SBS good to read your posts.
Mike another informative article, you are on a roll. I had wondered about the IPSOS Mori change. It looks like they have made a change based on pure Mkt Research principles of getting the sample right. Until there is an election to test this we will not know how accurate it now is but it makes sense and starts to restore some respect.
‘Scottish Keep Jobs As English Face The Sack’
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/62148/Scottish-keep-jobs-as-English-face-the-sack
‘Darling accused of trying to save Scottish banking jobs at the expense of English workers’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1057483/Darling-accused-trying-save-Scottish-banking-jobs-expense-English-workers.html
‘Salmond Leads Fight To Save Thousands Of Scots Bank Jobs’
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/news-feed/2008/09/19/bos-sos-86908-20743253/
If Salmond, Brown and Darling are all fighting to save Scottish jobs, who exactly is fighting to save English jobs? This is what you get when 3 parts of the Union have their own governments, but the 4th part does not.
20. The Labour vote held up well Stuart. It wasn’t the big swing to the SNP that might have been expected. Perhaps Glenrothes isn’t a foregone conclusion after all.
FTSE up 315 (BBC say likely to rise) cannot they get live prices?
32 So, Glenrothes = Referendum on Gordon: back him or the Cabinet sack him.
Gordon out Q4 2008 looks a nailed-on cert.
Mori poll shows turnout at 51% - do we think that is likely?
I am not sure why public sector workers should be so over-sampled. One reason may be, as Adam Smith says there are a lot of “quasi public” people out there, who identify with the sector but actually work for contractors: however it would be interesting to find out if their attitudes vary according to their immediate employer or who ultimately controls the purse strings. Is it reliance on landlines? I would guess that there are more private than public employees with the sort of busy lives that depend on mobiles - and who as a result don’t bother with a landline? Are they phoning in the early evening - again I would guess that more public than private sector workers leave work at 5 and get home at a reasonable time. (And before anyone complains - yes there are plenty of hardworking people in the public sector, but having worked there myself I would guess that the above are still reasonable generalisations).
One thing it does show is that the politicisation of the public sector has proceeded apace: the idea that civil servants were neutral and of all political persuasions is long dead. I used to work for a quango, and IMO we should have been able to get on quietly with the work of regulating education. However, everything we did had to be spun in line with the Government’s agenda. Anyone with right-leaning views was in a small minority.
35 “If Salmond, Brown and Darling are all fighting to save Scottish jobs, who exactly is fighting to save English jobs?”
Er…the unions funding Brown and Darling?
It’s a funny old world, Greavsie…..
36.
This time Labour had excellent canvass results to work on! Scottish Labour are no push-over you know. It is going to take years to kill the beast, not 18 months.
Of course Glenrothes is not a “foregone conclusion”. Elections never are. Never take the electorate for granted!
Stuart, presumably Labour is using the long delay to November for the Glenrothes by-election to do intensive work on their canvass returns?
39 - I thought that was the certain to vote category or the 10/10 likely. Turnout will be significantly higher than 51%.
‘Organiser’ dropped from Labour’s team
Mr Roy [MP for Motherwell & Wishaw], who is close to the former Blairite Cabinet minister John Reid, will be replaced by the Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths, a long-time ally of Mr Brown.
Labour candidate Lindsay Roy, the head teacher of Gordon Brown’s former school, Kirkcaldy High, is understood to have objected to the idea of a West of Scotland MP masterminding an East coast by-election.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4783575.ece
Note: Motherwell & Wishaw is due a Holyrood by election soon, when Jack McConnell finally pushes off to Malawi.
44 - but they have only used the 10/10 likely to vote to give the shares.
43. Yes, of course! Although Labour’s organisation in Central Fife is miles ahead of Glasgow in that respect, so they already had a far better database.
O/T - Jeff Randall is on his best form in the Telegraph today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/19/ccjeff119.xml
Hey, SBS, glad to see you on:)
QT was quite good, mainly because of the presence of Hislop and Wolfman[er, probably got the name wrong. Chap from Next].
Interesting to see Alan Duncan react less well to Harman’s quote than Redwood on the Daily Politics. Despite that, she got hammered by the panel, and worst, by the audience.
Featherstone got laughed at for saying the Lib Dems has posed a problem for the two big parties as well.
However, despite putting in a pretty good performance, Duncan looked more than self-confident, and the Shadow Cabinet need sto be careful about getting cocky. A 52% rating doesn’t appear by magic, and if Labour, somehow, gets its act together the Tories need their own pros to rely on, not just Labour cons.
46 - Hmm, that seems odd, I’d certainly want to include a portion of those down to 7/10.
So Peter Kellner thinks the MORI poll is pants. 266 people of 1000 questioned said they would vote Tory and according to Mori this translates to 54% of the vote.
‘Lucy in the sky with diamonds…..’
Presumably the early large jumps in banking stocks was due to short sellers getting out of their positions? If they can cause such huge rises in the market isn’t it possible that they can have been a contributory factor in the falls?
Or are both parts of this paragraph just rubbish?
It will be interesting to see if the likes of Miliband and Harman find some reason not to canvas for Labour (=Gordon) in Glenrothes!
49 - Wolfson is class. I once went to a fringe where he utterly eviscerated the Constitution. It was an absolute masterclass in forensic dissection.
I think the political significance of Mori being more accurate is on Labour morale. Even if many of us suspected that they were always a wee bit out, we could always cite in meetings and pubs and say, ‘well we’re only X% behind according to Mori’. Of course this was spreading a degree of delusion, but it sure as hell helped keep sane! Now we’re facing 28 points of gloom, when old Mori would have had us say a mere 11 points behind.
49. Alan Duncan always looks like that, it’s a flaw in his makeup he makes jokes about. He did ok in serious mode, made some good points. Hislop was excellent as usual, battering Harman’s stupid spin lines. Harman came out with the same spin and bashed the tories, making her and the party she represents look out of touch (no change there then). Next bloke was….there. The lib dem women was awful, left long pauses, rambled, tried to make out the lib dems had made a problem for the other two parties (which got a laugh, they’ve done nothing of the sort). She thought that as Clegg had energised the lib dems so he had affected the country, when in reality he’s still unknown by most people.
What also was interesting was the toff line. When an audience member called Cameron a useless toff, only a few people clapped. The rest looked unimpressed.
43 & 47.
Mmmm…. on second thought, perhaps not! Just how stupid can one political party be??
In Glenrothes, the contest on which the Prime Minister is pinning his fightback already looks doomed.
Labour MPs report that the campaign does not appear to have even started yet. One insider said: “I would expect to have been called by now, to be asked to get involved. But it hasn’t happened. Organisation so far is dire.”
It was a lack of co-ordination that ensured Labour lost the Glasgow East by-election after David Marshall quit for health reasons.
An out-of-date database was hardly the weapon Labour needed when faced with a popular SNP challenge.
There are fears Glenrothes could go the same way.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Credibility-crunch-for-Brown.4508522.jp
Marcia, have you seen many Labour canvassers while you have been out knocking doors in Glenrothes? Any other Fife activists (any party) out there got any anecdotes they wish to share? Any Fife voters out there been canvassed? Pray tell.
Barclays up 104. No need to sell any more Big Issues
52 - No the rise won’t be shorters getting out of their positions as much as it will be misplaced sentiment that a floor has been put under share prices. The question is this, if you are a trader who can no longer make a profit through short selling what are you going to do? I would suggest that you will evaluate your portfolio for a few weeks then sell heavily to avoid losses.
51 - 367 actually, Roger
58 Rejoice at that news…
59 - I was referring specifically to banking shares, rather than shares across the board. Some of which rose 60% up on opening before falling back
Hmm BBC market data section reporting that B&B has gone up by 19,000%… shome mishtake!
‘Exclusive: Now the grassroots turn against Brown’
His critics believe Cabinet ministers will try to oust him if Labour loses the Glenrothes by-election in Fife, expected in late October or early November. “There is a growing consensus that Glenrothes should be the trigger point,” one ministerial aide said yesterday.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-now-the-grassroots-turn-against-brown-935400.html
63 Quick, short them….er…mmmmm
63 - also reporting IMI up 680%… I think they are getting a bad feed.
55 - The worst thing about Mori for Labour is that, as Mike put in an article a few weeks ago, their traditional “all naming a party” poll (the one that gave 60%+ in the nineties) is now showing hefty Conservative leads (46,29,14) in latest poll. Previously Labour supporters could look at this poll and tell themselves that the voters were there, if only they could be persuaded to vote.
BTW at what point do HBOS decide that they don’t want to be sold after all?
A&L seems to have gone from +30% to -4% in ten minutes!
64 So “Vote SNP to get rid of Brown”
What more incentive do people need? making such a shibboleth of Glenrothes may give Gordon another couple of months - but may also prove incredibly short-sighted.
BBC has now sorted their B&B issues, they put the decimal place in the wrong place.
“HBOS shares up 32%” (BBC)
Er… how come they’re still being traded? I thought the takeover had been agreed.
72 - only at board level, has to go to the shareholders.
The FSA published the names of 29 financial institutions on its Web site (http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/handbook/list_instrument200850.pdf) after imposing the ban on Thursday in a bid to stabilise volatile stocks in the firms hit hardest by the credit crisis.
56
Hislop for PM!!!
57 That beggars belief. It’s not like Labour didn’t know the former MP was ill. Although, thinking about it, if as a Labour activist you believe that Gordon is the root of Labour’s woes, perhaps they also think that if they sit on their hands and “lend” it to the SNP ’til the General, that might be the best result all round. Must be hard to motivate your workers in that situation - especially with a poll showing fifty-odd percent of Labour supporters want him gone - and it may well be even more at the coal-face.
I know some have rubbished this, but for me the catcalls, contemptous laughter and jeering of Harriet Harman by the audience on question time last night marked a watershed. I know we’ve had the Iraq war and vocal discontent about that on QT before but, that aside, this was the first time i have heard that kind of reaction to a cabinet minister since John Major’s government - her treatment was very similar - a real “its over” moment for me.
Mori weights the public sector down to 12 per cent. Shouldn’t it be around 20 per cent?
As someone who has invested heavily in banks I’ve just heard that the reason for the stock market lift-off is the imminent transfer of bad debt from shareholders in the banks to the tax payer…..
Capitalism…don’t you just love it!
78 — National Statistics site gives Q2 2008 public sector employment as 19.5 per cent.
Has Mori wrongly weighted their results? Labour take Huntingdon?
re 22. You have always got to remember that Peter Kellner is a very strong Labour supporter and is married to a member of Gordon Brown’s cabinet.
However the “Golden rule of polling” proven in election and election over two decades is that the one in which Labour is in the least favourable position is the most accurate.
And Peter will recall how everybody was calling his post-budget poll in March a rogue when it reported a Labour deficit of 16%. We all know what’s happened since.
80 No - you forgot the unemployed/students/retired/idle rich.
77. They did treat Harman with contempt really, especially when she tried to wriggle out of any blame on the government.
83 And when she was so pitifully evasive when asked to rule out throwing her hat in the ring for a leadership challenge.
83 - The wise words of William Hague “New Labour would bring first fascination, then admiration, then disillusionment and finally contempt.”
80 — good point.
Oops. 82 (Marquee Mark) goo dpoint re non-workers.
The polls are uniformly predicting 400+ Tory Seats.Spreadfair give them a mere 353.5, which is still a majority in excess of 100 seats.
Meanwhile the sharp minds of Betfair send yet another message.
Almost 22% of them think the Tories will not gain most seats in the next GE and more than 11% believe that Labour are set for an Overall Majority !
Put another way, one in three are saying that the Tories will not have an Overall Majority.This last is very shaky and may not endure long.
Spread Betting is very volatile.You can win or lose a lot more than you might think.Odds Betting is very,very stable.You pays your money and you knows exactly how much you can win or lose.
88 - 350 seats would be a majority of 56. A majority of 100+ would require 375+ seats.
81. Mike. Are you suggesting that PK’s professional integrity is being compromised by his support for and relationship with Labour? I must say he doesn’t strike me like that
Jon Cruddas in The Times says the Blairites just aren’t a patch on Blair. He also appears unlikely to launch a challenge to Brown:
‘Mr Cruddas signalled that he was willing to shore up Mr Brown’s battered administration. “It’s all hands to the pump now,” he said.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4783692.ece
90. You only have to read this site to see how blind party allegiance can lead otherwise intelligent people to make remarkably stupid comments.
90. That’s probably because you like him want to believe the rubbish he is saying!
43 57 - the decision by Labour not to to call this election sooner rather later is working to our advantage. We are building up a good canvass database.
Some good news for the Libdems.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2093546/newsnights-focus-group-offers-encouragement-to-clegg-and-a-warning-to-the-tories-on-tax.thtml
And TB too, could ‘Ol blue eyes’ make a come back!
My bad,James Burdett ! One hundred lines for URW.I live with this topic every day and still get the sums wrong.
re 90. Of course not - he is beyond reproach and the polling journalist I most respect. But when we are talking to our own parties, as I was earlier in the week, we do try to present things in the best possible light. I have a PB voice and a Lib Dem Dem one.
re 8 but Stuart with only 1 candidate it would be AV? Did the SNP win the most first preference votes?
An interesting question. Who works for the public sector?. I have 4 very small part time jobs, one of which is working for a Council. Am I a public sector worker?
96 - It’s an easy mistake to make!
The Spectator is looking at the form book of potential Labour runners and riders. First up David Miliband:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2092121/the-labour-form-book-david-miliband.thtml
Followed by Jon Cruddas
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2093536/the-labour-form-book-jon-cruddas.thtml
Looking forward to the others. Also Newsnight tonight is giving the Luntz treatment to potential successors to Brown. It will be interesting to see how David Miliband does. When this was done last time (featured by Mike yesterday) he started badly, but people grew to like him. Now that he’s in a high profile position how will he do? Will Alan Johnson (who according to Labourhome members think is the most successful minister we have) do better? And what about Harriet Harman? She wasn’t reviewed last time, but as Deputy Leader her profile is also much higher. Will the blokes run a mile from her?
It all makes for fascinating TV and I’m sure it will be watched by a lot of key Labour people. It might be worth following the betting markets on next leader throughout today to see any dramatic movements. It will have been pre-recorded and you may get one or two BBC people backing the ‘winner’ of the focus group. The timing of this - just before conference - is signficant and whoever does well will certainly have a spring in their step at Manchester.
95. Right up until they have to vote, then it’ll be for one of the other parties.
re 25 so nobody reached the quota then.
O/T - Proof that there was not that much shorting of HBOS.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/19/16123/hbos-where-are-the-shorts/
85. “New Labour would bring first fascination, then admiration, then disillusionment and finally contempt.”
Interestingly Hague managed to avoid the first three
104. As I noted yesterday - this ban is just gesture politics. The proposal to create a son-of-RTC on the other hand could be a real step forward. Something like this should have been set up months ago - I know the Fed were interested as far back as January.
The only thing that surprises me about the voting behaviour of public sector workers is that anyone is surprised by it.
My experience of the police is that they are,on the whole, quite Tory. If you took them out of this calculation, I suspect the postion would be even extreme.
Many Tories have suspected all along that the public sector and the benefit dependent have been expanded to keep Labour in power.
When times are hard and restricting public spending is on the cards, the differencial may increase. Public sector workers who fear for their jobs may cleave to Labour and private sector workers losing theirs may resent the disparity even more.
SBS. Good to see you posting.
66
Imi up 600%
Quite possible.
(if wrong).
If a SETS share goes into auction and someone is desperate for stock and eneters a Bid six times the Ask to ensure their order gets filled.
Of course ths share NEVER trades at that price..
As the BBC have no understanding of how markets work…
Put your Libdem hat on for a moment Mike, I reckon the Libdems are probably going to win a couple of seats on Wolverhampton council.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/7619093.stm
106 a UK version of RTC will be right up Gordons street. It involves the taxpayer taking massive risk, for an unknown time frame, blows a further gigantic hole in the public accounts and all for short term political gain.
My only surprise is that Gordon hadnt thought of it before. He can park it next to his massive PFI and unfunded public sector pension liabilities.
We will still be paying for Gordon Browns incompetence in 30 years time.
****
Sorry to rove Off-Topic, and be ‘behind the times’..
What did others make of the Frank Luntz film on Newsnight ?
I thought it rambled a bit, and wasn’t as good as his films before..
They slated Cameron for being too much like Blair, then voted by a large margin to have Tony Blair instead of Gordon Brown given the chance..
They appeared not to have a clue who Clegg was, and then seemed to say that he could be the greatest thing since sliced bread !! What does this mean for future political campaigns ? Maybe Cameron will decide on a period of purdah where he retreats to a monastery in the hills until a few weeks before the election..
Like I say, I couldn’t make sense of it - possibly because the guy flitted over the 3 parties, so didn’t really settle on in-depth analysis of any one party.
***
A foretaste of public service cuts to come?
(or how to fund LD tax reductions?)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/7624464.stm
Oldham Council plans 850 job cuts
Workers are expected to find out about the cuts when they arrive at work
Up to 850 staff at Oldham Council face losing their jobs as the authority tries to tackle a budget deficit of more than £17m.
Council leader Howard Sykes said it was “critical” that the authority found a way to save money, but added that the plans were still at an early stage.
The Liberal Democrat-controlled council said it would try to minimise the need for any compulsory redundancies.
Re Scottish jobs over English jobs. It made both local news stations last night in Yorkshire as they interviewed people in Halifax [a town heavily dependent on the bank] and chartered its history.
No direct reference was made to Gordon Brown’s involvement but I suspect some will have picked up other pieces on the news and some will put it down to a Scottish bias.
Either way it won’t help him.
Inevitably as the Scottish byelection draws nearer, more attention will be given and more people will join up the dots.
111. It’s certainly not a painless solution, by any means. But I think it’s the only way to restore market confidence now. The banking sector needs a capital infusion and the wider market needs to believe that banks will remain well capitalised.
The mishandling of this crisis by the authorities, including the idiotic behaviour vis-a-vis NR will have raised the ultimate cost of course - not just in terms of the taxpayer burden but also in terms of the reputation of the UK financial sector and its ability to earn in the future.
112. Yes it didn’t seem as slick, but still interesting. I wish that the BBC would put a longer version of it on their Newsnight website. I could easily watch an hour of that stuff.
112. I believe Luntz will next week be persuading a similar group to vote for Nick Griffin.
112. They were being asked to react to what they saw. They thought Cameron and Brown were rubbish and Clegg wasn’t. They thought Cameron was trying to ape Blair. Not surprisingly they didn’t admire someone who was but a pale imitation of someone else.
What was there not to understand?
112 Sounds like it followed the course I predictted last night: the only politicians they will publically say they like are the ones that they and others don’t know.
118 - And yet they seemed to admire the third rate knock off of the pale imitation! Just goes to show that Human behaviour is not susceptible to explanation.
114 When a Scottish band (RBS) took over an English one (NatWest), English jobs are lost.
And when an English bank (Lloyds/TSB) takes over a Scottish one (BoS), English jobs are lost.
118 The one thing that people who seeCameron in person don’t say is that hge is rubbish. At our Cameron Direct,the opposition [who are welcomed in by the democratic Tory party!] were green.
Cameron appears insincere. It’s clear every time you remove the fog of his surroundings and the group picked up on it. A major problem for the Tories when attention will be focused on him and not on Brown.
123 - Which is why every time Cameron is in the news the Conservative poll rating goes up.
Basically, the next election will be about “swiftboating” Cameron. Labour has nothing else to offer other than applied nihilism.
It has started already.
balls. i remember Tony Blair being described as “phony Tony” , “fake”, “insincere”, “another maggie”, “all style and no substance” etc etc . Its just the same sour grapes from a declining party in power. What Cameron offers is hope for the future. “Gordon Brown offers new hope for the future” doesnt quite have the same ring to it , does it?
123. Roger why is it that you and Brown are the only people to think this? As Milliband is alleged to have said it’s bizarre. Starting to resemble a Japanise soldier who didn’t believe the war was over.
127.
“The wish is father to the thought”, so take this with appropriate caution, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a useful improvement in Labour’s poll rating next week. The general impression from the media, with exceptions, is that Brown is handling the crisis fairly well (I know some of the traders here don’t agree); there is both a fuel price war and a food price war breaking out today; and expectations for the Labour conference are so low that a normal rally-round effect may improve on them.
I could easily be wrong, but as this is among other things a betting site you may want to consider it.
123 - Andrex Puppy?
‘The general impression from the media, with exceptions, is that Brown is handling the crisis fairly well’
How laughable - comical Ali lives.
Let’s not forget that this 52% for the Tories, compared to the 62% I believe Bliar once scored, was a/ against a background of polling that tends to overstate Labour support and b/ achieved with the BBC and much of the establishment spinning madly for Labour, both in 1995 and now.
So this poll seems likely to me to understate the Tories’ support if anything.
121 Quite. Mike’s recent bet on Ried for next leader not looking too good.
O/T - The Large Hadron Collider broke and no-one was informed for a week. Doesn’t inspire confidence does it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/09/19/scilhc119.xml
The focus froup was Labour voters and floaters was it not??? I dont think there was a Tory among them, the fact that 4 said they would vote for Cameron is in itself fairly striking…
129
The only food war was people bashing each other to get in to the new Lidl (new labour equivalent of Fortnums) to buy baked beans at 10p a pop.
UK: Shoppers Fight For A Bargain At Lidl
Further evidence of the growing popularity of discounters in the UK was highlighted yesterday after hundreds of shoppers clashed as they rushed to secure a bargain at the opening of a new Lidl store in Southall, London. Several customers suffered minor injuries in the scuffles as crowds swarmed to the store.
Security guards closed the store’s main doors after stands were knocked down in the stampede. Huge queues then developed outside the store, in the High Street, which opened at 8am with special offers including discounted TVs and CD players. A Lidl spokesman said, “It has been a very, very, busy store opening”. A police officer has been posted to the area after the stampede. A Met spokesman said, ‘We are aware there have been crowds of excited people there.”
129. I too would expect a rally too on last one since - we thought it was a rogue!
You may be right apart from that, but we are ready for the spin if thats all you’ve got.
129 - Brown has brilliantly spent the last year relentlessly lowering expectations in order to emerge in triumph next week…
You may be right to some extent that the bar is pretty low. Cameron benefited from it a bit last year as everyone thought the Tories would be in turmoil but actually they were chipper. But it only takes a few loose words, a new resignation or another twist to the financial crisis for the whole thing to tumble down.
Oh, on the poll - I don’t doubt that public sector workers are more anti-Tory than average, so adjusting for any oversampling of them has a case. But it’s only one of numerous such subsample biases that one could check for (e.g. if as Sally C says the police are more Tory than average, should MORI check if they’ve oversampled police officers?). Statistically speaking, if you have 20 possible biases and only correct for an anti-Tory one, you are likely to get a slightly more pro-Tory outcome. Adjusting by past vote, like most firms, seems a more generic and safer correction.
re 129 yes, Nick, I just don’t get the timing of the anti-Brown MPs. Who would want a contest now? Even IF one accepts the case hat Brown should not lead Labour into the GE, the earliest time to strike is surely next spring?
123 - Roger, can I have some of what you’re smoking please? It must be good stuff - it’s completely distorted your vision of reality.
Remind us of the current polling for Labour, versus the Conservatives. It doesn’t seem to connect with your view of the electorate’s hatred of Cameron.
Lay off the Pichon Lalande in The Groucho today, it’s clearly addling your brain.
I’ve made a boring comment on statistical methodology and it’s been detained for moderation - any idea why, Mike, to help avoid the trap?
It’s nice to know there’s still some good news around.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1057613/Bryan-Ferrys-son-remanded-custody-accused-nobbling-witnesses-theft-trial.html
Must concentrate on what I am supposed to be doing - even more spelling errors the usual.
Going to the supermarket now a person in the know has informed me a vicious price war has broken out. Must say I didn’t notice it yesterday.
141 - NickP Did you use the dreaded mortg..ge word?
141 He is picking on you.
Roger has ‘form’ when it comes to denial.
141
perhaps you had the words “Brown” and “popular” in the same sentence. Even a computer knows thats ridiculous.
140: beats me, Martin!
In response to the Glenrothes report above - all Labour MPs were contacted more than a week ago about helping in the by-election. So I don’t know what the anonymous MP quoted is talking about, unless he feels he’s a very important chap and miffed that nobody has asked him personally.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a useful improvement in Labour’s poll rating next week.”
Immediately eclipsed by the Conservatives’ own conference boost, of course.
Major security alert at Oxford Circus. Rozzers told me suspected car bomb.
25.
I wonder if I am alone in being surprised that the SNP didn’t win Glasgow East by a bigger margin (given the huge swings they achieved in less favourable circumstances in Govan in the past). The robustness of the Labour vote in the council by-election is noticeable. Contrary to some, I think the forecasts that Labour will be massacred in Scotland at the next general election are hugely overstated. The massacre will take place in the marginals in southern England and the midlands. The SNP will get nowhere near the 20 gains forecast by Salmond.
Having said that they will certainly take Glenrothes -it’s on the east side of Scotland where the Nats are certainly doing very well - and they won the equivalent Scottish Parliamentary seat last year (Central Fife). It would be a major surprise if Labour held on. If Brown’s fate is determined by Glenrothes then he is a goner.
77. I have to say the discussion about Palin was shocking. The Granuiad and the BBC have done a good job of doing this woman up like a kipper, and not one person on the panel had the balls to defend her, and the chairman did not have the wit to correct either the audience hyenas or the panelists.
i) at no point in anyway has Palin said she is a creationist. While running for Alaska she was asked if creationism should be allowed to be discussed in school, and she made a comment about everything being discussed neither side should be worried about debate.
ii) Her position on war with Russia is identical to every other NATO country, Nato has agreed that Ukraine and Georgia should join when they are ready and want to. If a Nato country is attacked it is necessary for all other nato countries to come to their aide.
Palin grasped this, and despite having no foreign policy experience articulated it quite accurately.
The die is now cast, Palin is an evil rightwing daughter of Bush and cheney who will bring war, famine, pestilence and destruction upon the world.
127 Although Roger is overstating the public’s doubts of Cameron so are you understating these . This Mori poll with it’s record Conservative vote share has his approval ratings at 48% and dissatisfaction rating at 32% so rather more than just Roger and Brown are unimpressed .
139 The chances of a Brown bounce would be significantly improved if his own MPs weren’t saying how bad he was all the time.
Cat’s out of the bag now. Everything can just be repalyed over and over again.
Nick. To be fair I don’t think the media coverage has been too bad but I think some parts of the media, especially the reporting of the banks have been trying to act ‘in the national interest’ which means avoiding making suggestions that the guy in charge in a total muppet [something which has been said repeated on air by those in the city].
When the dust settles, and lets hope for eveyone’s sake its soon, I don’t think he will come ouf of the analysis well.
MUST go shopping. Nevermind, those prices will be just tumbling in my absence.
150 - Eek.
152
The die is now cast, Palin is an evil rightwing daughter of Bush and cheney who will bring war, famine, pestilence and destruction upon the world.
I’ve always thought that! glad too have you on board.
the crisis is at least in part of Brown’s making having been chancellor for 10 years and overseeing the regulation of financial services. As well as presiding over an uncontrolled credit boom in order to engenger a feel good factor - so in that sense he’s only dealing with a mess he created. You are naive if you think a day of grandstanding and banning short selling, a complete red herring,is going to change much though. You must know Nick that the huge credit and house price boom, way beyond anything we have seen in the last 50 years, which the government did nothing to stop or curb as it was suiting them, has now collapsed in spectacular fashion. Unemployment and poverty now beckon for millions - its a tragedy. All Brown can do is try and point at scapegoats and save his own skin. The conservative party before the 89-91 recession also blamed “global economic forces” for their failings. It didnt work as everyone knew there shortcomings at the time had contributed to it. Your party is no different - in fact the country’s finances are even worse now - and you really deserve to be kicked out of office for what you have done, or not done over the past 10 years. I for one - and i’m not usually a political activist - will be fighting with every bone in my body to make sure you are beaten.
@ 40: the politicisation of the public sector has proceeded apace: the idea that civil servants were neutral and of all political persuasions is long dead.
Not quite, the sample of the public sector alone showed a roughly equal split between the parties. I guess the civil service would only properly reflect the makeup of the country if it were 40% Conservative and 60% miscellaneous left.
@ 107 (Sally C)
Sally, I have heard this argument before (”…Many Tories have suspected all along that the public sector and the benefit dependent have been expanded to keep Labour in power, as you have put it). While broadly this seems true, I am not convinced it translates into a Labour ability to buy votes when in power.
Won’t all those people vote Labour anyway? They want a fat non-job as a diversity outreach co-ordinator, with a final salary pension, so they’re Labour through and through. I.e. when Labour’s out they’ll vote to the put them in, and when they’re in they’ll vote to keep them in. They are either the payroll vote or the wannabe-on-the-payroll vote, depending on who’s in power.
The Tories could sack half a million of them and not lose a single one of their votes.
154. 32% as a dissatisfaction rating is rather good considering 40%+ of the public are anti Tory no matter what.
Quite possibly.
I grew up knowing someone who was quite a right winger. Big fan of Maggie. Becomes a civil servant… starts to vote Labour.
Mind you, now he is worrying about his tax bill, he seems to be coming home!
129
A food price war?
Great
Does that mean that the price of bread which has risen some 60% in the last years is going to fall 60%..
Ditto eggs?
I hope so. Watching OAPs chose food in a supermarket is painfull… counting the pennies..
re 140 Nick P I’m astounded. You mean that someone knows how to contact every Labour MP! I though you led us to believe that these things were done by smoke signals.
re 153 why does she need defending - the woman is a nut job whose job prospects terrify many people this side of the Atlantic.
164 because the points she got criticised on were incorrect or misleading. She is not a creationist and she is not wanting to go to war with Russia.
Does any one have a share dealing account that works? Selftrade is useless - everything takes at least 5 minutes.
162 True although there are also 20% don’t knows but my point is that it is rather more than just Roger and Brown as you flippantly claimed .
What’s this? No comment at all on Luntz from Mike Smithson? Shurely shome mishtake! Such an important result that must affect the way people thin, right? No mention at all?
Maybe because it showed Clegg in a positive result? Hmmm…..
154. Mark, if he is getting 48% approval, 32% disapproval and presumably 20% don’t know, that’s not bad when that same poll identified 12% LD voters and 24% Lab voters. In other words, 4% of Lib and Lab overs didn’t disapprove of him, and 4% of Conservative voters didn’t approve of him.
I think Gordon would be ecstatic to have figures like this.
166 Icarus: I use Barclays Stockbrokers - works well, and placing a trade is fast. Probably not the cheapest, however.
166. I use iwebsharedealing.co.uk. Tenner a trade but works quick enough.
167. I didn’t literally mean it’s only Roger and Gordon. I’m sure most left wingers and Tory haters think the same as Cameron as I and many other felt of Blair. However as long as 50% of people don’t think that, then things are looking rather good for Dave.
169. That should be ‘voters’, not ‘overs’. Clearly, it’s been a poor cricket season.
168 we’re only half way through the Luntz thing.
129. “The wish is father to the thought”, so take this with appropriate caution, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a useful improvement in Labour’s poll rating next week”
I can see the headlines now: Increasingly Ridiculous MP, Famous For Desperate Spin, Makes Absurdly Pointless Comment.
Maybe not page 1, eh Nick?
Memo to Broxtowe Labour Party: YOU’RE HAVING YOUR CONFERENCE NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE YOU WILL GET A BOOST IN THE POLLS. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS AFTER CONFERENCES. EVEN MEBYON KERNOW GET A BOOST AFTER THEIR CONFERENCES, AND HALF OF THEM WEAR DRUIDICAL ROBES AT HOME.
Trying to spin this psephological truism as some remarkably turnaround for Capabale Gordo is dire stuff, even for Nick “we’re looking at a landslide of 97 proportions” Palmer.
The Really Serious Headline of today is the stuff about Scottish jobs being specially protected by the HBOS takeover, with no such protections for English jobs. This is an open goal for the newspapers - Cammo can’t score it cause he’s a Unionist - but the tabloids could go to town. I expect they will.
It’s absolutely disgraceful. A Scottish PM and Scottish Chancellor looking after their own, and sticking two fingers at the English.
Grrrr.
153-Look at this discussion from the AP.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/09/021535.php
164-You mean he? As in Obama, right?
129: ‘The general impression from the media, with exceptions, is that Brown is handling the crisis fairly well’
I don’t usually agree with Mr Nick Palmer MP but here he is dead on the money. The media - however naively, however crassly - have swallowed the line that Brown has proven himself the man for this financial crisis hook, line and sinker. The plot against him was jejune and shambolic as it was; now it’s finished. Brown has been saved until 2010!
(And is that a mixed metaphor in my second sentence? Not sure…)
135. Correct.
Also note that one of the clips of Cameron was very well received - dials very positive for Floating voters and also above 50% for Labour voters. But very little emphasis was given to this.
Overall Cameron did well considering the make-up of the group.
Oh! now that socialism has saved Capitalism from itself, (once again) is it ok to come in off the windowledge.
Oh! don’t go on about sacking civil servants, you’ll make, ‘cuddles’ feel insecure.
Oh! did you know that if you’re a rightwinger its only ‘cos your scared s**tless about everything.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1057909/Right-wingers-startled-sudden-noises-spiders-liberals-study-finds.html
FTSE thru the roof!!!!!!!!
166
http://www.h-l.co.uk/
Big firm, cheap.
174. Yes the grubby, snot-covered paws of the PM are all over this. Once again, rather than acting in a responsible way aimed at bolstering public confidence in a period of financial emergency, we see the petty shoring up of partisan interest and pathetic spin.
New Labour simply can’t change its ways - and will be crushed at the polls as a result.
179. No, I’m fine. although I am being a little bit distubred by your constant reference to my future employment.
Brown is not safe. There is plenty of time for him to be knifed.
His inept financial regulatory system has unravelled. The media and public may not have picked up on this - but they will.
His authority round the cabinet table is seriously undermined. The PLP are in a tizzy.
This ain’t over.
Next week we will be back to examining every nuance of their behaviour and things will be back to normal.
179. The correct analysis of this is that rightwingers are aware of threats to the tribe/species/nation - so are willing to respond - liberals are a bunch of tra1tors and girls which is they like communism/the EU/stupid gay fair trade coffee.
177. Disagree. I think Brown has bought himself about… three weeks. He was never going to be ousted before conference. He was never going to be ousted at conference. He will produce a dull but worthy speech and they will give him a three year standing ovation. Hey ho.
The consensus is now forming around Glenrothes. So many people have now openly/implicitly said that’s the Real Test, I think it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
If the polls are still dire come Glenrothes, and Labour lose - he’s gone. If they win, he survives until 2010.
I wonder if Cameron will be quietly asking Tories to vote tactically in Glenrothes - for Labour…
A few points:
1 The MORI poll is probably an outlier but I think it does reflect the general mood - ie that folk are not happy about the economy and blame Brown for the mess.
2 The Lib Dems and Clegg are currently being underrated because they have been squeezed out of the story and he is a new boy and hasn’t had a lot of publicity yet. As the Luntz thing suggest he may do better as soon as an election kicks in and thepublic see more of him. Where they are campaigning (eg local by-elections) they are doing fine.
3 Cameron’s support could go either way. If the focus is on the economy tanking and Labour get the blame he may do alright as the obvious alternative. If he and the Tories start to face real scrutiny it will be a lot harder for them.
4 Recent Scottish results have been interesting. For a long time there has been a lot of interchange between Labour and Lib Dem votes to keep the Tories out. Are we starting to see the beginnings of widespread anti-Labour switching? That could make Labour’s problems harder.
I think that’s true but I suspect that this will have saved him abit of time.
The recent rogue[?] Mori poll might be well timed for him as it gives greater scope for him to say he has made ‘inroads’ into the Tory lead.
182
I’m worried about you cuddles, surviving in the hostile outside world, might be difficult for someone who I suspect has led a very sheltered life.
184
Hmmm don’t make derogatory comments about gays, you’ll make Martin feel insecure.
188-And the thought police will come round. Happily being in Thailand you may be safe.
187. No, lived on benefits before, have you?
168 - “Just a bit of fun”, and, as Luntz admits, not scientific, but interesting non-the-less.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/default.stm
What do our esteemable Conservative friends make of it?
189. I’m in sunny Fitzrovia, but thanks for the thought.
Actually, it’s quite nice to be home for a while, seeing my daughter, looking at conkers, writing horribly violent thrillers etc etc.
Would I have heard of any of your horribly violent thrillers SeanT?
188. Again the familiar obsession…
191. It’s irrelevant.
192 - You should put a particularly gruesomely violent death by horsechestnut in your next book, if nothing else it will get the HSE hyperventilating!
Mike - any chance of a piece on the Newsnight piece? I know you rate Luntz.
194 - was it irrelevant in September 2005?
196. I hope tonight’s Luntz piece on whether Labour would fair better under another leader, and if so which one, will be worth a thread of its own.
@188:
No, he’s right. Gay fairtrade coffee is the worst kind.
English/Scottish jobs. If it is true that as part of the HBOS/Lloyds TSB deal that there was an express declaration to protct Scottish jobs but not English ones, then surely that is absolute dynamite.
So Brown’s a goner if Labour lose Glenrothes. Who says? All I’ve seen so far is a bit of wishful thinking and unattributable rumour. I suspect they will lose and he’ll still stumble on for reasons rehearsed a number of times before.
Luntz? Urgh. I think there’s something deeply suspicious about his methods. He just bullies a room full of victims into agreeing with his position. I’m not sure I understand what it’s supposed to prove.
197. No because the Tory party, unlike the Lib Dems, is relevant.
190
I can honestly say, I’ve never ever taken a state benefit in my life.
But then I joined ‘Up’ at the age of 15 years and eight months, (you could then) my life ceased being sheltered at that point.
If I hadn’t, where I was then living, the ‘Job Centre’ (as it is now called) was the biggest building in the town.
200 I don’t think Lloyds are committed to anything. If it is just a cosmetic announcement, they will no doubt do what makes commercial sense. However, if there is actually a statement written into the sale agreement I agree it will be dynamite. They will be justifiably punished in Yorkshire marginals.
191 - I might previously have mistakenly given readers the impression that I thought Luntz was a fat, blustering oaf whose focus groups have all the scientific weight of an article by Sarah Palin about the fossil records.
In fact, nothing could be further from the truth and I can confirm that Luntz is a visionary genius and future Olympic triathalon champion.
191 Tabman, Luntz’s poll of left leaning Manchester folk seemed to favour Cameron a little more than Brown whilst Clegg was well ahead of both of them amongst the northern lefties. Quell surprise. Bears activities in woods…..
The real shock poll finding is the Labourhome survey with just over half the party activists wanting Brown gone. 45% believe a change would improve Labour’s GE prospects and 27.7% would not. That is a 3:2 ratio of Improve vs Worse. It will add steel to wavering rebel Labour MPs. Echoes Mike’s “what did you do Daddy…” article theme.
Add in the Luntz findings of how dire Brown is doing and we have all the ingredients for action. Dianne Abbott has stated that the Glenrothes by election is going to be judgement day, no wonder Brown is dithering over when to hold it.
174 ignoring your typically graceless bashing of Nick, I’m halfway through “Cameron on Cameron” by Dylan Jones, and heartened by the bit where he dismisses as pathetic whining those people who say “oh it’s all the Scots in government stitching up the English”. Just stupid xenophobia against fellow Britons.
Mike, you should read it if you haven’t. I think it would interest you. You might be disheartened at the bit where he explains that he could not vote for Ken Clarke for leader because (drumroll… as test has previously argued here) despite his many great qualities, his Europhilia would have made the party unworkable. He voted IDS in the final round.
206 -
201 So Brown’s a goner if Labour lose Glenrothes. Who says?
Dianne Abbott said that is the view of some in the cabinet. Where would she get that from? Presumably not the Brownites and she had could not stand the Blairites. I suggest it is the ones that have been previously neutral. That is why it is more dangerous.
210 - I don’t believe everything Dianne Abbott says.
O/T From the Speccie… Gordon and PFI
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/2088001/part_6/the-great-debt-deceit-how-gordon-brown-cooked-the-nations-books.thtml
If Labour loses Glenrothes, what would be the size of its majority (given the intervening defeats it has already suffered) when the Lords send the 42-day detention Bill back?
The issue with focus groups is that the sample size is too small to be significant. In addition, the clips are cherrypicked by the chap in charge, raising the prospect of experimenter bias (ie bloke hates Brown and shows the clip where his hand shook at PMQs).
We all want a rough minimum for a poll to be 1,000 respondents. I didn’t watch Newsnight (too amused watching Harriet getting laughed at) but I bet the focus group didn’t have 1,000 participants.
208 test - Take a look over at Iain Dale: he’s suggesting Ken Clarke should be Cameron’s Chancellor!!
i don’t get it. Just because the FTSE isnt collapsing today, Brown gets credit????????? i’ve never heard anything so bonkers in my life. the idea he’s steering us safely through difficult economic waters is ridiculous. Unemployment jumped by 80,000 in the latest figures, the highest for 15 years, inflation is headed towards 5% the highest for a decade or more, there IS large overlap between HBOS and Lloyds and being fairly cautious and using similar bank mergers as a guide, 40,000 job losses is not an exaggeration.
5000 highly paid employees of Lehmans lost their jobs this week. The service sector has fallen off a cliff recently with even big retailers like Philip Green’s Topshop and other mid market stalwarts pleading for monthly in advance rather than quarterly in advance rental payments for the first time in generations. It is hand- to- mouth out there in retail right now. Theres’s a lot of discretionary income not coming in to our service sector and finance based economy at the worst possible time.
We ARE NOT well placed to weather the global economic storm in this country. We are possibly WORST placed amongst leading countries as we are uniquely OVER dependent on the finance and service industries which will undoubtedly bear the brunt of the recession this time.
Gordon’s one day wonder on a FTSE share rise today cannot last. The fundamentals aren’t sound. They’re rotten. That’s what’s preciptated this crisis.
You would have to have the attention span of a drug addled gnat with Alzheimer’s to think this week was a triumph and Gordon had saved the day and was best placed to lead us into the sunlit uplands……. i don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
215. It’s not as stupid as it sounds - for some reason he retains the respect of the financial markets, unlike almost anyone else in politics.
He’d be a decent pick to replace the pitiful Darling now in terms of calming things down - whether that will still be the case in 18 months is rather less clear.
211 James, I also do not believe everything Dianne Abbott says but she was very clear about her view that the cabinet would act. She has better access to them than us and she said “will” not “should”. She actually does not welcome a change. She has not spun this from what is best for her view. That is why it is more believable.
One cabinet minister she always speaks warmly of is Hilary Benn. I suspect she has picked this up from cabinet neutrals and not the cabinet Blairites.
Brown’s reaction has led to him not being criticised, slightly different to him doing well. the press stopped for a day, but as we slide further into a recession that won’t be for long.
214 - But you do get to explore people’s opinions in much more freely than the structured questioning of a poll. You can ask open questions, get feedback on speeches and so on. Parties and commercial organisations use focus groups all the time when a poll would be cheaper and easier and they do (kind of) know what they’re doing.
I take your point about Luntz, but I think it is a bit much to dismiss the whole concept of a focus group with fewer than 1000 people in it.
157-Pathetic comment.
to chher himself up perhaps Gordon should have a go with the latest Taxpayers Alliance gadget
End-of-An-Error
well I thought it was funny anyway.
I think the problem is, as far as the average voter is concerned, GB has apparently acted decisively to sponsor the LLTSB/HBOS merger, and as a result rescued HBOS. And after a couple of days the markets seem to be under some sort of control. This may be so much coincidental bollocks - but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a reasonable bounce out of it, and and easier ride at Conference - could be enough the take the heat off.
220. But it’s easy to dismiss the transparent manipulation of a handful of carefully selected people.
216
Well we are likely to have another 12 months of FTSE misery so if Gordon stays or not is irrelevant.
It is my considered opinion that it is unlikely anyone else in Labour can do a better job. If hets the heave ho, so should Darling. Darling looks lost. E Balls would be a better Chancellor.
I cannot believe I wrote the above … but it’s true,
220, it is undoubtedly more free flowing, but has more problems than merits. If you’re the lone Lib Dem surrounded by voracious Tories, the odds on you being entirely honest are lower than if you’re filling out a form on the net.
As I said above, it also has the problem of the chap in charge having too heavy a hand in direction, and, wilfully or not, manipulating those involved.
I do tink focus groups are interesting and worth something. But not much. Too many potentially contaminating variables.
Regarding Brown, he did the right thing on Lloyds TSB and Halifax, and deserves a measure of credit. If he’d buggered it up the consequences would’ve been catastrophic. However, he did need a practice run to ruin (NR) before getting it right.
The recession will still occur. Unemployment may well hit 2m, tax receipts will fall and Brown remains doomed, whether by the electorate or his own side. If Labour pull back from axing him now (barring a Glenrothes victory) their clemency will reap only a GE crushing.
Ah, for us friends of the free market who of late have had to endure those weirdy, whacko, anti-capitalist rants from the likes of coldstone (sorry to pick you out) it’s a pleasure to read a good, cool analysis by someone who knows what he’s taking about:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4782481.ece
225. Agreed - Darling, Brown and everyone else in the Cabinet are utterly out of their depth with respect to the economic situation, and so are their so-called ‘advisors’. It’s a very worrying situation.
Brown “an end to Boom and Bust politics”
Sounds a bit rich now.
We had the boom.
Now here’s the bust.
You promised “you would not let house prices get out of control again and threaten the stability of our economy” Quote unquote.
how can Brown possibly expect people to have forgotten this as they lose their jobs.
215
Oh! I’d love that, seant’s reaction, (The thesaurus would be red hot) It would be like putting a spider in his pants.
Anyone for the Euro?
From the Spectator: Brown and debt:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/i//the-magazine/features/2088001/the-great-debt-deceit-how-gordon-brown-cooked-the-nations-books.thtml
Hehe, found the Brown calculator link on Guido:
http://www.tpadata.com/browncalculator/
227
Don’t apologise, I’m so glad to have made your day!
I’m waiting to see and hear DC and Co. condemn all this massive state intervention into the market place.
What ever happened to, ‘Governments can’t solve a problem, governments are the problem,
Oh! speaking of Dave and Co. where are they? I see Janet Daley on her blog, is asking that question.
Heard Osborne on the radio, (as weak as dishwater) apart from defending the, ‘Short sellers’ didn’t have much else to say.
Brownite attack dogs turn on LabourHome has been highlighted by Guido.
http://tinyurl.com/nmohg
“There seems to be a concerted attempt to shoot the messenger. Tom Watson, live and direct from the bunker, is trying to rubbish the poll and menace Alex Hilton,.. ”
That survey clearly drew blood.
228 You say that, but surely the story of this weeks is that govt intervention has proven very useful on both sides of the pond.
227. One of the clear lessons of the current debacle is that the so-called ‘regulators’ are woefully inadequate for their task. They have allowed banks to build a massive shadow banking system to circumvent rules on capital adequacy, and have utterly failed to comprehend the concept of liquidity risk.
And as Gerard Baker remarks they have also allowed vested interests to prevent the reining of the systemic risks created by allowing the endless expansion of the US mortgage agencies. The powers that be have been ignorant, complacent, and incompetent.
228
Oh! is that runneymede, fine example you are! 48 hours ago you wanted the government to nationalize the entire financial system.
You Tories amaze me, ‘Governments who needs ‘em, until the s**t hits the fan, then its’ why isn’t the government sorting this out’
Pass the sick bag, peeerlese!!
US: New national Battleground poll out today - 47-47, against McCain lead by 2 today.
However, we cannot conclude that the move towards Obama continue. We have the advantage of knowing the daily numbers for Sep 10, 11, 14 and 17, published yesterday. Sep 10, which is now taken off, had McCain ahead by nearly 8. Yesterday’s sample should be more or less even. And on Sep 11, Obama was ahead by 6, so that we should expect McCain even or ahead next time this is published.
235, the HBOS issue was settled well. However, the taxpayer still has tens of billions liability on Northern Rock.
Likewise, the shares are rebounding now, but if that was due to government action, then them slumping was due to inaction and not making the right choices earlier. In the meantime HBOS has had to be taken over, AIG’s been nationalised and Lehman’s collapsed.
235. Government intervention is now essential, but one of the reasons we need it is that governments have failed badly to discharge their proper function over the last decade. And it would be far better if we had people in government who had at least some understanding of the mess we are in.
233 - that’s the advantage of opposition, you don’t have to say anything, just let people get on with blaming the government
239
That’s a ludicrous point of view, surely you should be saying (if your a Tory) ‘The government should stay out of the market, it will correct itself’
Who was it said, ‘You can’t buck the market’
at least we can continue “shorting” financials with the spread firms. it must be manna from heaven for them. silly FSA!
242, perhaps you could tell me who said that the market should be entirely unregulated, and then remind us all who created the financial regulatory framework and ran the economy for the last decade?
HBOS and Lloyds got the green light from government, rightly. But it wasn’t brokered by the government.
237. Remisinant of Gordon this time 16 years ago. No sick bags left after that!!
240
Will you be saying that, when our energy supply industry collapses as a direct result of privitization.
Or as the then Minister of Energy, (Tim Eggar) said,’We are removing the dead hand of government from the British energy industry’
Hmmm so are we putting the, ‘Dead Hand of government’ on our financial industry?
245
Spelling, spelling! Remisinant, what the f**k does that mean.
If you don’t know how to spell, get a dictionary!!
246. 247. Nurse….
” Gordon’s one day wonder on a FTSE share rise today cannot last. The fundamentals aren’t sound. They’re rotten. That’s what’s preciptated this crisis. ”
Basically, Browns tactics are:-
Bad News - Retreat to bunker, nowt to do with me…
Good News - I’m a genius and get myself on the TV to say so post-haste.
I say ride the wave Gordon, the more you appear in the wild the more people are reminded they don’t like you.
235 - Let’s look at that in a few months time. Traders will push the markets up today in their excitement but over time they may come to a different conclusion.
LOL, I voted in that poll. I always do. I declare myself to be a Labour supporter who voted Labour last time. I give most of the Cabinet shower average ratings and then I deliberate over what will do the most damage for a specific few.
This time I said Broon had to go and Moribund was a top bloke. I think Broon may well be forced out, and if he is, I want that muppet Moribund to replace him. He’s weak and cowardly and as a bonus he looks weird. Cameron will totally pwn him.
Ed Balls would be best of all for the Tories but I can’t see it happening.
Dare I say it, maybe the Government did a decent job regarding HBOS and Lloyds. However the job losses that may come and WHERE, could still be problematical.
235 Oh come on, can’t you admit compared to the real alternative HBOS going under, this week has ended pretty well. Do you always have to look on the dark side? I think even the hardered Tory with a 52% poll rating can admit occasionally things aren’t always bad.
249 “I’m a genius and get myself on the TV to say so post-haste.”
This coming from a Cameron supporter.
235=250
253. Why are you replying to your own posts?
The trouble isnt over, sad to say. We’re a year or so behind the USA in our own financial crisis, caused by the bursting asset bubble. Unfortunately for our country we have a word of economic pain to endure. Private and public debt is as high now as it was yesterday. It still needs paying off. Nothing has changed, really.
256. The macroeconomic deterioration already in train won’t stop as a result of anything that has happened this week. Just possibly, we won’t get a really savage downturn, however.
“the week has ended pretty well”.
As i say you must have the memory span and intelligence of adrug addled gnat with Alzheimers if you think the events of this week have been anything other than reinforcing a completely disasterous prospect for the UK economy.
Or maybe you are a Labour party spinner, trying to big- up Gordon before conference.
SportingIndex GE spreads market has moved back towards Labour: L 225-231, C 350-356. Presumably in response to better financial news today.
165 - Palin is a proponent of Intelligent Design and her position on Georgia is not credible, Ukraine nearly as much so.
As we have seen in the last week Ukraine is not entirely stable and with a high pro-Russian sentiment in various areas, the usual time would be about ten years or so for a country like this to prove its ability to be a useful member of NATO.
As for Georgia, NATO will not admit anyone with long standing border disputes. If you do, then you are going to have to react to an almost inevitable flare up by opposing the aggressor, in this case Russia. Anyone wanting Georgian membership of NATO, as Palin and McCain do, does so with this knowledge.
253 - All I am saying is that decisions that appear good at the time don’t always look good in hindsight and that traders may come to a different conclusion. It would be wrong to think that our problems are over on the back of a rally like this. Also if HBOS was well capitalised as the FSA is insisting then they wouldn’t have gone under. If they could have gone under the FSA were being disingenuous. I am firmly of the opinion that things are never as good as the optimists or as bad as the pessimists suggest.
It seems the week IS ending on a better note (I say seems, because we’ve still got to wait and see what happens on Wall St when the DOW opens_ with shares up and the central banks/governments taking action to try and prop things up and keep the show on the road. Total meltdown has been avoided, and we should all be thankful for that.
BUT, I suspect the events of recent days has done a huge amount of damage. Damage to the economy here and in the US, and I think here at least we can now be certain that we’ll be tipping into recession before long. Damage to confidence in the financial system, which will take a long while to resotre. Damage to the reputations of the worlds central banks. And yes, severe damage has been done to Gordon Brown this week. Between his party rebelling against him and the lack of support from the Cabinet, and the financial crisis, Brown is now a dead man walking, IMO.
HBOS is not a done deal. It requires 75% shareholder approval which may well not be forthcoming given that the stock’s 40% gain today puts rather a different complexion on the price.
261. James you are confusing capitalisation - which is a balance sheet issue - with liquidity. The risk to HBOS was that a wholesale and retail run would overwhelm its liquidity reserves, not that it would become insolvent due to bad loan or trading losses. The same was true of Bear Stearns and Lehmans - neither was ‘bust’ in the conventional sense.
That is what makes the current situation so dangerous - there is a degree of arbitrariness in terms of which institutions are suffering these devastating collapses in market confidence, a symptom of the extent to which the normal rules of the game have gone out of the window.
261 Well, I didn’t hear you arguing that there might be unexpected benefits of bad developments. But I will take you’re word at that. I never said problems were over, just that things were better and that arguably govt intevention had helped this week. Not a radical view.
258 The force of your argument is impressive. Pb.com’s very own star in the eyes SeanT wannabe.
All I say is that compared to where we were on Wedenesday, today’s events are surprising and welcome. Surely you can live with that without calling it spin. I guess you’d have prefered it if HBOS had collapsed.
259 Richard
I cashed in a small proportion of my unrealised profits this morning on the basis that Gordon seems to be weathering the storm and I expect next week’s conference to be a bit of a love-in.
Just read that Economist piece. Pretty good analysis. The conclusion seems to be that Labour ran out of money and ideas - and forgot that governing is mostly about competence.
re 194. Tabman - the next thread will be on the Luntz programme. I’ve only just got round to watching it this morning.
263 Tony B. Agreed it is not a done deal but I don’t understand your reference to price. The price is a fixed number of Lloyds shares and broadly speaking the two share prices are consistently moving in tandem.
One of the reasons for the bad polls is that perhaps everyone else is now catching up with YouGuv and the overstatement of Labour.
I think I suggested here a few months ago that Labour’s best bet was for Jack Straw to take over, get Reid to come back as Chancellor, admit there had been a lot of mistakes on the economic front (caused by Brown, Balls) and say he’s going to do the best he can. I still maintain that view, if the Party would unite they could save themselves some seats and ensure a future. One of the most striking things about last night’s Newsnight focus group was how many Labour supporters/undecideds were prepared to drop Brown for Clegg. What happened to the core vote?
Incidentally, is there a risk that the EU could stick its nose in on the HBOS deal? I understand the government here has torn up the competition rules in this time of crisis, but surely there must be a risk the EU will rule that this deal is illegal?
268 Cameron has clearly not sealed the deal has he? And if Labour and the Lib Dems crack how to get their marginal voters enthused. It will be a lot closer.
It looks like the likehood to turn out is what the polls are all about.
271, I think they would only be able to if the two banks have less than two-thirds of their business in the UK, which neither of them do. Wish I could remember where I read that.
Even if they could, they’d be insane to do it. If they said no and HBOS collapsed, the whole country would turn from EU-sceptic to EU-hating.
265 - A lot of the intervention is in the wrong form though. A lot of it is taken on the basis of scapegoating and will have long term consequences. I would argue that where we were on Wednesday was more honest than where we are today, but that again is personal opinion.
272 - A dream team of saviour of our nation, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg. I can’t wait.
Mrs Test, ignoring your typically bizarre arschlosschen of Nick Palmer, if you actually read my post you’ll see I’m not complaining about the Scots themselves - they are our fellow Brits and I luv ‘em, down to their deep fried Curlywurlys - it’s the hateful lopsidedness of Labour’s Devolution Settlement that irks me.
As far as I can see, we have a Scottish PM and a Scottish Chancellor deliberately messing with a bank takeover so that the legal small print explicitly protects Scottish jobs - with no such protection for English jobs. That’s what the Times says: this pro-Scots bias is actually written into the deal.
If you can’t see how this might ever-so-slightly annoy English voters, who are already governed by Scots who make laws for the English, laws that do not apply to Scots voters, then I think you are being a tiny bit naive.
Thanks to Labour’s hypocrisy, selfishness and ineptitude, the WLQ is a ticking bomb that’s gonna blow apart the Union, if it ain’t swiftly defused.
I trust this defusing is high up on Cammo’s To Do list.
273. That would be a laugh, wouldn’t it? I wouldn’t put it past them, either.
272. On Cameron - you must remember that this was a pretty left-focused group. We all know who the Labour core are, but who exactly are these undecideds? People who voted Labour last time. I suspect there are plenty of those who will now vote Tory. But they can’t be considered undecideds anymore.
273 - Yes but the merger is only good from an expediency point of view. It is bad for business, bad for competition and bad for the mortgage and housing market.
272. I think we should be careful not to read too much into the Luntz focus group. The people were obviously extremly fed up with their lot and pessimistic about the future. And as far as I could tell there was a great desire for tax cuts - Which Clegg promised, but will never have to deliver. Cameron doesn’t have that luxery.
People are desperate for a change and I’m confident that when the election comes they will go to the Conservatives, rather than the Lib-Dems, to provide that change.
It’s these kinds of insights that cast serious doubt over Browns leadership. When he speaks of ‘we’ he actually means ‘me’. It makes him sound like a timebomb waiting to go off:-
“Insiders speak of a prime minister obsessed by the next day’s headlines, working hellish hours, prone to anger, micromanaging the detail of government and slow to take decisions.”
” As the problems have piled up, Mr Brown has decided to work even more punishing hours. This approach, colleagues say, is counter-productive. ”
” Downing Street staffers arrive at their desk to find e-mails from Mr Brown, some bashed out as early as 4am, issuing instructions for countering negative newspaper stories or plotting some headline-grabbing initiative. ”
“People feel permanently under the cosh,” says one with experience of life in the Brown bunker. “It is not an efficient or happy place to work. Gordon’s working methods are chaotic and extremely demanding.”
This is the worst part (even if it stapling his own hand in a rage makes me laugh)…
” Mr Brown, according to his officials, has a particularly volatile relationship with staplers, on one occasion stapling his hand in a moment of rage. On other occasions they become missiles. These incidents suggest a prime minister living on the edge. Some aides fear there will be a “blow up” moment in front of a camera, exposing the prime minister they know in private to the world outside. ”
Full article here:-
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90ee5c08-4471-11dd-b151-0000779fd2ac.html
Latest Research2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 2%
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/19
275 I am not sure that was the conclusion of the piece. Nice try though. It was certainly not really good news for Cameron.
278 They were the people that Labour needs to GOTV in order to win. Whilst it is clearly not a huge problem for Cam, it shows that his reach is perhaps not what the polls say it is, that the propensity of the Labout vote to get out is important and there is a least potential to rebuild a Labour vote if someone gets them motivated.
281. Hmm no wonder he looks so ill - Dr.Barry will have to let us know what the risks are, to inform our ‘exit dates’ betting.
276…some might suggest that the contents of your 2nd paragraph,if correct,suggest that this government is corrupt? the new labour coalition corrupt?
283. But they were more motivated to vote for Clegg than Brown. Labour can try and play the anti-Tory card to squeeze the LDs, but what about after the next election?
If Labour suffer meltdown who will emerge as the voice of anti-Tory feeling? Looking at last night, it could be the Lib Dems. Labour can’t afford any complacency.
286. I bet Luntz could have got that lot to vote for Griffin too - if it had been secret voting, rather than a hands-up-in-the-carpark job.
281 I am no fan of Brown … but this is just a journalist filling space.
Given how many journalists patrol pb.com looking for copy. I suggest a new game.
Let’s plant the most outrageous dysfunctional Brown stories on pb.com and see how long takes for them to be reported as factoids in the Times or the Guardian.
273 - That’s correct. Under the EC Merger Regulation, you can’t be looked at by the Commission if all parties to a merger achieve 2/3 or more of their turnover in one and the same member state.
281. He sounds like a complete fruit cake doesn’t he? You would think he must have Hypertension, so illness could well take him out before the Labour Party does.
288. I’ll get us started. ‘Gordon pushed Robin’.
283. Cameron does not need these people in his electoral tent - we have seen what Blair did to the Labour party. Spread it to wide with no depth, when the electorate turn they get oblitarated!
Labour have no chance of winning the next GE, another point I would like to contend with is the ‘Sealing the deal’ line.
This is not the US where you have two non-incumbant candidates like Obama & McCain this year. The Labour party is the Government and they have *Broken the deal* with the people. Governments lose elections, it is my belief that Labour lost this next election quite a while back say 2006. Ignore the Labour bounce of last year in the polls, if it was “real” Brown would have gone for an election. His marginal polling showed it wasn’t!
290-RCP-Tie 47% each.
282. two things i note
i) palin’s ratings continue to sink like a stone
ii) it might just be statistical noise, but the number of democrats saying they are voting for mccain has dropped down to 10%
290. He’d actually have to snuff it for the spreadfair GB weeks market to pay out, though, wouldn’t he?
Now I think Obama made a terrible mistake ; it might even be game-changer.
RCP is flashing Limbaugh’s rispost to this Obama’s ad
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/17/new-obama-ad-mccains-an-anti-amnesty-republican-racist-like-rush-limbaugh/
Limbaugh:
…Mr. Obama’s campaign … knowingly extract[ed] two incomplete, out-of-context lines from two radio parodies and build a framework of hate around them in order to exploit racial tensions? …
Mr. Obama and his advisers … hoped-for result is to inflame racial tensions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178554189155003.html
Will Obama soon pay for this in the polls?
266 PtP Probably wise. There could well be a short-term boost. Unfortunately, having started much later than you, the 6-seat spread means it’s not worth me doing anything at this stage. (I’m still feeling pleased with myself at having correctly tracked McCain’s short-term boost and selling at the peak!).
Looks like you were right to keep calm over Brown’s departure date. The immediate danger seems to be subsiding.
282 Interesting regional variation:
McC Obama
NORTHEAST 33 60
SOUTH 53 38
MIDWEST 40 52
WEST 40 51
McCain piling up votes in the South will not win him the elction.
The other killer statistic against McCain is:
MEN 47 McCain 43 Obama
WOMEN 37 McCain 55 Obama
Women comprised more than 53% of all voters in 2004.
268 - Mike, thanks.
247. Sorry that’s the dyslexia. Attacking the spelling and not the point is rather childish though.
296 - No. “Rush Limbaugh annoyed with Obama” is not a story here in the real world.
288,291 A friend of mine has a niece who works for Gordon Brown.
She told me that he has elaborate cleaning and washing rituals, particular concerning bodily waste or secretions.
Gordon’s rituals included elaborate handwashing routines, night-time showers, and lengthy wiping and cleaning rituals.
He hardly ever sleeps anymore, as the obsessive showering and cleansing takes all night.
300: especially as the t*sser cannot spell “privatisation” himself. What an arse.
302 - What does this friend’s niece work as? Gordo’s bog roll dispenser? Either over-manning in the public sector is worse than we thought or your mate is tugging your wotsits.
301 — Poster James,
This is not the point. The point is that the Obama Team made an obvious attempt “to inflame racial tensions” in order to get the Latino vote…
And it made it with obvious distortions and cheap editorial tricks.
So my question is: Will Obama pay for this?
302. Hitler was a compulsive sanitiser as well, I believe. But seriously, I wonder what the psychology behind all this is - what is it about himself the man is trying so hard to wash away, or cleanse?
305 - And my answer is “no” as per 301.
296- The NYT is denouncing Obama’s effort to stoke the flames of racial hatred in the Hispanic community through deceptive advertising:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/us/politics/19adbox.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
If even the NYT is calling out this vile racial demagoguery as false, you know Obama doesn’t have a leg to stand on with this one…
305. Galloway didn’t in Bethnal Green three years ago.
293 david l. The RCP average includes a number of old post convention polls favourable to McCain. They will shortly drop out.
292 Martin Day - Yes, you are right. The point about Cameron ’sealing the deal’ is that this is not a static situation. His critics seem to think that he has set out his stall and that is it. This is nonsense; he’ll have been working to a timetable of (probably) a 2010 election and pacing himself accordingly. So we can expect some new policy announcements at the 2008 Conference, plus a whole lot more at the 2009 Conference and a steady stream in between.
[And yes, I expect he has also got contingency plans in place in cases there's an earlier election].
Limbaugh moaning about someone inflaming racial tensions?
Excuse me while I lie down convulsing with laughter!!
Put against McCain’s seeming inability to recall who Zapatero is and then his campaign’s cover up to claim that they don’t like Spain’s PM very much this is nothing.
Okay, it’s a negative ad but McCain should have known that, if he went down that route, then he was going to have it reflected back at him.
308 — Thanks S&S. This is indeed quite telling.
I really hope that the MSM’s Obama-mania will cool down now, and see the guy for what he really is: humain, trop humain, at least, and not some kind of political miracle-maker.
Just out of interest is Brown forgetful or talks to himself (Moves his lips as though he speaking what he is thinking) or prone to laughing in his own company?
That is a dreadful thought of the poor bloke hidden away in a back room, somewhere in Downing street laughing!
305- It has become an election time staple of the Democrats to target broadcasts to minority communities on the eve of important elections, particularly in swing states, feeding into those voters’ paranoias and suspicions about how Republicans are really just white racists who hate them (the Democrats seem to be unconcerned about the longer-term poisonous effects of such propaganda). But what’s different about this one is that it has come out so soon, well before election day. There is still time for this to come back to haunt Obama before the ballots are cast. We’ll see if the media have enough devotion to their professional ethics to actually require Obama to answer for this one.
312. Obama - negative? surely not
He’s just an ordinary politician, Paul - and he is in deep trouble if he takes this tack.
305. I think he might. It seems incredibly dumb to give John McCain an opening like this. However, I’m not sure what the McCain campaign will do in response. He doesn’t want a debate about immigration.
313. I think you’re about three months too late.
296/301. No. But Clinton’s comments might have some pull. He’s not exactly going for the jugular on Palin:
“She’s an instinctively effective candidate and with a compelling story” and “It’s a mistake to underestimate her. She’s got good intuitive skills. They’re significant.”
on McCain:
“And as I said, I’ve never concealed my admiration and affection for Senator McCain. I think he’s a great man.”
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/19/bill-clinton-campaigning-for-whom/
312 — I admit that I was quite surprised that the Mac Campaign went for cheap attacks on Obama after their well-orchestrated Conventions.
I expected Mac to take the high road; I was wrong.
However, this polarizing, communalistic Obama ad is worst than anything the Mac Campaign have made so far.
Now, I’m quite sure that Mac is (rightly) very, very pissed off…
314 - “talks to himself… or prone to laughing in his own company”
Says the PB master of putting a dozen smileys after yet another one of his imagined hilarious jokes…
“Criticizing Sen. Obama, Limbaugh called him “Obama Osama”
http://mediamatters.org/items/200507120008
“Limbaugh on Obama: His “only chance of winning is that he’s black”
http://mediamatters.org/items/200806020006
Discussing Obama, Limbaugh suggests Dems, media believe “you can’t criticize the little black man-child”
http://mediamatters.org/items/200808200009?f=s_search
So, over to McCain, will he denounce Limbaugh? Will he show how he really is different to him and his like? Is he scared of doing so?
For that is what the ad is about, getting McCain to denounce his racially charged support and to cut them loose.
I think McCain is scared of Limbaugh, he won’t denounce him. We shall see…..
265 not saying that at all. the fact that the us govt has had to put $180bn into the system, bail out massive institutions, banks have been forced to merge like this, etc, is a symptom of how bad things are, not how good. way too much debt around. will take years to get out of the system and hamstring the economy for years.
Assume 302 a bid for the 288 idea, gwynfa? You’ve taken in runnymede already!
S&S : “We’ll see if the media have enough devotion to their professional ethics to actually require Obama to answer for this one.”
We will see, indeed. I can’t hardly wait…
Contrary to Poster James, UK.Paul and Caveman, I really expect this story to snowball (Limbaugh is very good at this kind of stuff, isn’t he?), and I expect as well the American people to make Obama pay for this one.
320. The difference is I am not paid £150,000 or however much he get’s paid!
Please tell (Write) me one of your favourite jokes or amusing story. We will see how amusing yours are! I admit my humour is quirky but only sad, miserable, grumpy types don’t tend to like my company and jokes.
#265 The bounce in the markets has more to with the US Government (and by proxy the US taxpayer) looking at taking on the Toxic Debt of its financial institutions, rather than any UK Government action and the HBOS/Lloyds deal (which still has the potential to unwind). iirc correctly the markets were moving downwards with Lloyd TSB share price under pressure at the FTSE close yesterday.
Even after announcements on short selling (and short selling was outlawed prior to the 1929 crash) FTSE futures and the Dow were still moving downwards.
324. can tell obama is doing well in the polls again when pb starts getting spammed with this sort of rubbish
UK.Paul
I reckon that this one was quite inane : “Criticizing Sen. Obama, Limbaugh called him “Obama Osama” ; however, I see nothing wrong with this statement:
–“only chance of winning is that he’s black”.
And I frankly just don’t understand this one:
–“you can’t criticize the little black man-child”
However, this story is not about Limbaugh, Uk.Paul. It is about what it actually reveals of Obama’s moral character.
And BTW, Limbaugh is not running for the presidency…
327 — What do you mean, by “rubbish”?
Anyone that thinks it is normal or a good thing to have a 10% rise in a stockmarket in a day is clearly bonkers. Today just brings the inevitable crash closer, whether short selling is banned or not. Too much debt, no way to recycle it.
328- Exactly. When did the issue become Rush Limbaugh instead of Barack Obama? Only since Obama tried to make the election about Limbaugh via his latest negative ad… Maybe McCain should start running ads against Kos and force Obama to answer for him.
302 Excellent, Gwynfa!
You had me fooled. (OK, not difficult, I hear thousands cry, but it’s a start.)
If this story is repeated in the MSM, you are awarded the title of PB Spoof Poster of the Year immediately!
re 212 quite right. Ian Hislop raised the issue of Gordon’s dodgy off balance sheet accounting last night and Harman had no answer. It always amazes me that government ministers repeatedly talk about off balance sheet shenanigans causing the present crisis, and even more so that the interviewers let then get away with it without raising the issue of PFI. Not only has Brown bankrupted us in the present, he’s bankrupted us and our descendants well into the middle of the century as well.
330. There is also a lot of cash sloshing around the world economy - best not to concentrate just on credit crunch/Debt! Many people got out of shares and banged there money into government Gilts etc. Indeed I know of people who have shifted cash out of high street banks into National Savings and the like!
330 I agree with that enitrely, its just another bubble waiting to burst - what happens in January when short selling is back on the menu? The FTSE is overvauled by 10% versus a short selling environmant surely?
The difficulty for McCain and the Limbaugh story is that whilst the GOP are desperate to move off the “economy stupid” narrative that is dominating the media I not too sure they want to be even indirectly linked to a wingnut like Limbaugh.
328. ” I see nothing wrong with this statement:
–“only chance of winning is that he’s black”.”
Oh dear
re 213 Take a look here. fascinating seeing how Callaghan’s and Major’s majority status seemed to vary from day to day. It hasn’t been updated since April, but if I’ve done my calculations correctly, the state of the parties after a Labour defeat at Glenrothes would be
Lab 349, C 193, L Dem 63, UDUP 9, SNP 8, SF 5, Ind 3, PC 3, SDLP 3, Ind C 2, Ind Lab 1, RU 1, UKIP 1, UU 1, Spkrs 4. Lab maj 52.
333 Brownisms foolsgold rules.
1. We are against Govt leaking unless it is done by us to undermine Labour MPs.
2. We are against off sheet liabilities unless they are our PFIs.
3. We are against rebellions unless they are by us against Blair.
4. We believe in taking decisions for the long term except where we have a short term problem.
Unconfirmed Rasmussen tracker. Unchanged 48/48.
I have a mate whose exgirlfriend works right in Number 10 close to a prime ministerial aide.
THIS IS TRUE.
She says Brown has a collection of tiny china figurines which he keeps in a shoebox - tiny sheperdesses and horses and farmers and pigs and the like. She says most nights when he’s alone with his aides and the wife he gets them out and plays “farmy-farm” with the little dolls, making the horses jump over tiny hedges etc. He even takes the miniature cows to the Number 10 toilet so they can do “Brownpats” as he makes little mooing noises.
The staff’s big fear is that he will take his “farmy-farm” set to the Commons and be caught on TV playing with it just before PMQs. He’s come pretty close already - during the non-election debate, a miniature sheep apparently fell from his breast pocket onto Ruth Kelly’s hair, and was there right through the broadcast.
Amazingly no one noticed, but they reckon it’s just a matter of time.
re 258 Please, the verb “to big” or “to big-up” is the most disgusting neologism of recent years.
“Limbaugh is not running for the presidency.”
But you and Stars & Stripes can dream, eh?
Limbaugh - Coulter ‘12: “It’s the end of the world as we know it, and we feel fine!!!”
337- The Dems’ 1984 VP nominee Geraldine Ferraro said essentially the same thing during the primaries and she’s now been sent to a re-education gulag.
327 — Come on, G! Don’t me such a paranoid moralistic pedantic boy…
What I meant is very simple : I see nothing wrong with someone expressing the theory according to which Obama would not be a political phenomenon were he a white dude.
Some people happen to believe that Obama would NOT have beaten Clinton had he been white. I don’t care for this theory, but I see nothing wrong with someone expressing it.
Understand?
344. You saw nothing wrong with her statements?
342: Not quite. “Issues around” just trumps it.
346- If you can’t see the role that Obama’s race has played in this contest, largely in a positive way for him (particularly in the primaries), you’ve missed one of the largest elements of this campaign. I look forward to the day that America is a race-blind country, but I don’t share your idealistic view that we’re already there.
341 - mmmm interesting piece of information, I’d agree I (and yes I’ll admmit I have mostly voted Labour) have my reservations about Gordon’s mental health. Although I wonder how many of other PM’s have had their own little ecentricities?
re 306 perhaps it’s the “damned spot” of Iraq. We can only hope that Blair is similarly affected. It’ll take a whole ocean of sanistisers to wash his hands clean.
341. ‘I have a mate’
I stopped reading here.
So what’s new ??
From 24dash
The Government will miss its 2020 house building target by up to nine years unless ministers further intervene in the property market, it was warned today.
The National Housing Federation said unless radical action was taken immediately, only around 1.6 million new homes would be built by 2020, well short of the Government’s target of three million.
Instead the group, which represents England’s housing associations, said it could take until 2029 to reach this level of new properties.
David Orr, chief executive of the Federation, said: “The Prime Minister was both brave and right to put the dire need for new housing centre-stage, and make it a national priority, when he took office last summer.
“However, with the global credit crunch worsening, and conditions getting tougher for all house builders, it is time to recognise that the very commendable 2020 target is now almost impossible.”
351 “I stopped reading here.” Oh dear. More fool you, ‘cos the rest is very funny!
353 — indeed!
New thread - Will Lib Dems be complaining about Luntz this time?
310-Sorry Jack you’ll have to explain further on this-you can’t just dismiss it as old stuff-RCP clearly state as at 9/19 an even race & earlier on this thread Philippe endorsed same.Yet again if it does’nt fit with the narrative as shown earlier by yourself in showing 49%/42% to BHO then it must somehow be wrong!!!!
341 Brilliant! SeanT at his very best.
Come on Gwynfa. Can you beat that?
345. 348. Why didn’t Jesse Jackson win?
Obama did not win because he was part of some affirmitave action scheme, to say so is to diminish his achievements because of his race. It is also attempting to exploit racial divisions and white resentment and suspicion of blacks for political gain. You see Obama as exploiting racial divisions and hispanic resentment but you don’t recognise Geraldine Ferraro and Rush Limbaugh as doing the same?
356 david l. As I explained some older favourable McCain polls were due to fall off the average. Indeed they have now done so. RCP average is now Obama +2.1. The link below clearly indicates this.
The tracker I posted was the Research2000 for today, that RCP does not include in their average and I also noted an unconfimed Rasmuusen tracker. I’m unclear what the problem is ??
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
297 Richard Nabavi
It’s conventional wisdom to sell off a proportion of your positive open positions from time to time. I closed out about a third of my Labour ’sells’, realising £655. I don’t think the fundamentals have changed though and if I were in your position, I’d sit tight.
The next danger period for Brown seems to be Glenrothes. I don’t think Labour can hold it, but a small defeat should be OK for him. A big defeat would, in Diane Abbott’s words, trigger Cabinet moves against him, but I still think he’d be unlikely to resign, so my bold prediction that he will see out the Calendar year still stands.
Well done on McCain! That market has been a bit of a gift to spread players. I missed out on the McCain rush, but I did buy Obama cheap just as momentum switched. I have already seen the 6 point spread eliminated and have a small profit. Fun, eh!
Finally, I must mention Colorado. PfP is fond of pointing out that some States represent much better value than the main event. Colorado is a case in point. It is likely to be a pivotal State - if not THE pivotal State - so if you fancy Obama to be next POTUS, you are better off taking the 5/6 about him for the State rather than the 4/6 on the Presidency. Paddy Power is the man giving the 5/6 and for once I was able to get a decent sum down.
Paddy must have had three Shredded Wheat this morning!
S&S - Philippe etc.
Limbaugh is a symbol of the support that McCain needs but that is toxic to many people. It is about how *McCain* deals with Limbaugh, not about Limbaugh. Will he, as Obama did with Wright, cut him off and denounce him?
If he does than that can only be good for McCain, if he says nothing then we can only presume that he either supports Limbaugh or that he is scared of losing his support and supporters.