Will Yuriko Koike make it as Japan’s first woman PM?
September 21st, 2008
Wikimedia Commons
But Taro Aso is the strong favourite to be the LDP’s fourth leader this term
Following Tzipi Livni’s 431-vote victory in the Kadima leadership this week, five contenders are lined up to take over the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) in Japan tomorrow. Unlike Livni, who has her work cut out trying to put a coalition together (maybe a 50% chance at best) before she can become Israel’s PM, whoever follows Yasuo Fukuda at the LDP helm will certainly become Prime Minister in Tokyo.
Along with Ireland’s Fianna Fáil and Sweden’s Social Democrats (and indeed the Canadian Liberals too), Japan’s LDP is a party that has enjoyed long periods in government. Indeed, only one LDP leader has ever failed to become Prime Minister. However, in terms of Prime Ministerial longevity, Japan and the LDP are currently on a par with the “revolving-door” politics of Italy in the 1980s. Every September for the last four years has been a month of upheaval in Japanese politics.
September 2005 saw Junichiro Koizumi win a convincing election victory for the LDP - but a year later he stepped down to be replaced by Shinzo Abe. Abe in his turn made way for Yasuo Fukuda in September 2007, and this month will see another new face at the top. This will be Japan’s fourth leader of the current term, which puts into perspective the debate in the UK as to whether or not a third PM would necessitate a snap general election. Japan does not need to hold an election until September (when else?) 2009, although an early poll this autumn is now expected.
Unlike the Kadima primary which was open to party members and where thousands of ballots were cast across Israel, the LDP version is a much more closed affair, with an electorate of just 500 or so MPs and other elected officials. The frontrunner is Taro Aso, currently the LDP’s Secretary General, and who also served as Foreign Minister under both Koizumi and Abe. This is Aso’s third attempt at the leadership, losing to Abe in 2006, and also standing against Fukuda a year ago, losing by 330 votes to 197. Aso is seen as conservative and hawkish, and is also a manga fan - shares in manga companies rose during his last leadership bid.
Meanwhile, Yuriko Koike has become the first woman to seek the premiership in Japan’s history. She was Defence Minister under Abe, but has only been in the LDP since 2003 - and indeed has been in no fewer than five different parties since 1992. In launching her bid, she stated: “In order to break through the deadlock facing Japanese society, I believe the country might as well have a female candidate. Hillary used the word ‘glass ceiling’ … but in Japan, it isn’t glass, it’s an iron plate. I’m not Mrs Thatcher, but what is needed is a strategy that advances a cause with conviction, clear policies and sympathy with the people.”
Koike may not be the favourite to win, but she has however received the backing of former PM Koizumi - and merely by standing she has blazed a trail for women at the top level of Japanese politics. Might a good showing in tomorrow’s leadership election mark her out as a possible future leader of the LDP?
The new Prime Minister is expected to dissolve the Diet and call a general election which could be as early as 26th October - and although the LDP’s popularity has slumped recently, another term for them could be on the cards, a strong challenge from the DPJ notwithstanding.
International round-up
As well as Livni’s victory, there has been a great deal of other international news this week. Ehud Olmert has today resigned as PM in Israel, but will stay as caretaker while she attempts to form a coalition. Thabo Mbeki has resigned as president in South Africa after the ANC called on him to quit, while rescuers continue to search in Islamabad after the suicide bomb which killed 53 people. Finally, Slovenia has voted today and results (in English) are available here as counting progresses.
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Austria (28 Sep) background, polls, betting market
Canada (14 Oct) background, polls, betting market
New Zealand (8 Nov) background, polls, betting market
Double Carpet
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Quote of the year so far from Al Fresco:-
‘I never really understood why bestiality was considered so evil’
1 I thought this was the money quote:
“why is shagging a chicken considered worse than eating a chicken sandwhich. Regarding consent, what would the chicken prefer?”
195 (previous thread): ‘Surely for paedos the sex of the child is irrelevant anyway?’
No, they do tend to favour one sex or another. However, paedophilia is really a particularly revolting form of sexual fetishism and it’s misleading to apply the tags ‘heterosexual’ or ‘homosexual’. In fact, I would imagine a large (if not the vast majority) of paedophiles who choose boys as their victims would never dream of having sex with an adult male. The philosopher Thomas Nagel deals with this issue in his book Mortal Questions under the chapter ‘Sexual Perversion’.
Is that the same woman from the Japanese Dating advert in the top right column?
Not such a fan of the fotoshopped flat stomach advert - but quite like the Russian Brides advert, just window shopping. Honest.
Konnichi wa.
Repost for Roger, from last thread -
“Roger. it’s not rigging the sample, it’s the use of particular numbers. Rasmussen weights harshly for party ID that are positive for Republicans.
Imagine that a poll in the UK said that they would only accept 25% of labour identifiers because that’s what they have found in their previous polls.
That’s the problem.”
Thanks Paul. Excellent round-up as usual.
Hazel plus Miliband = comedy gold.
Looks like the Labour party civil war goes on - just that now they are not even bothering to brief off the record, they are just doing it openly at conference.
Sky have picked up on it
160 Peter2 on the previous thread said
“For the record, I do not have any gay friends”
Acually you probably have loads of gay friends but don’t know it. Maybe they are all gay to a man and just talk about you behind your back.
I love to spread a little paranoia amongst the intolerent.
If anyone’s bored, this time last year was quite interesting. Comment 32 suggests ave it is the most accurate forecaster of all of us.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/23/has-gord-decided-to-stop-teasing-us/#comments
I seem to remmeber (perhaps about 15 or 20 years ago) that there was nother woman who “nearly” became PM of Japan. I think she might have been the leader of the Socialist Party (I might have misunderrememberated).
Think how boring Japanese politics would get for their on-line political anoaraks-perpetual one-party rule almost since WW2? Still,at least our antics at home and the US would keep them entertained
9
Thats a hell of a good prediction - getting a football score exactly right a year before the game is played!
211. A remarkably open-minded post from you! And fair point on the bestiality remark… I don’t really know how to respond!
198. I don’t really know who this Rogers bloke is, or what he said, but I was talking about hate-inciting speech in general.
Jon Craig ‘The Blairites are turning up the heat on Brown’
#9 Comment 204 from Nick:
Hello from Bournemouth. Writing on a fiddly Blackberry keyboard, so just briefly:
1. I would like an election now, and believe we would get an increased majority. The Tory panic is unmistakable.
2.I still think next May is more likely. But this not based on any inside info.
by Nick Palmer MP September 23rd, 2007 at 11:06 pm
5. Paul. Surely it’s such a competitive business that pollsters wouldn’t do something to prejudice their accuracy?
16 - Well they need to be commissioned and Rasmussen now gets a lot of their political business from Fox, who clearly like their slant. You pays your money and you gets the poll you like.
I’m sure Rasmussen thinks he’s right but, to be on the extreme of what are called ‘house effects’ isn’t a good place to be if you are wrong.
Can we please draw the conversation about bestiality to a close? Many thanks.
Double Carpet - great article, shame there’s no betting markets on this, as I think Taro Aso is a dead cert.
Even recognising the fluidity of opposition parties in Japan, being a member of 5 in 16 years would put Robert Kilroy-Silk to shame, and having running for party leader having been the member of another party seems, well, shamelessly careerist under the circumstances.
I find it odd that any mature democracy should fail to develop a powerful, opposition to the major party. Any thoughts (from anyone) as to why this might be?
General question for the Conservative supporters (now) or the Labour supporters (in 1997/1992): What would you prefer?
Either (A)
The government is deeply unpopular. By-elections are being lost by huge swings. There are rebels and dissent and policy difficulties aplenty. The economy’s going down the plughole. The government soldiers on, things settle down a bit, doubts are raised about the opposition’s competence. One or two by-elections are held, or not lost as badly as expected. Opinion polls during the run-up to the campaign gradually improve for the government, and the government party goes into a clear lead in the final two weeks. Then the government unexpectedly loses the general election by a massive landslide, because people have been lying to the pollsters on a massive scale, and your party is swept to a historic victory.
Or (B)
The government is deeply unpopular. By-elections are being lost by huge swings. There are rebels and dissent and policy difficulties aplenty. The economy’s going down the plughole. The government soldiers on, the PM is dumped and replaced by some nonentity who can’t cope. Opinion polls during the run-up to the campaign are still just as dire as ever, and the government party remains far behind in the opinion polls right up to the last moment. The government loses the general election by a massive landslide, as expeted, and your party is swept to a historic victory.
I prefer (A). The 1997 general election would have been even more fun (for those of us who voted Labour) if the campaign had been more like 1992 or 1987 than 1997.
11. Not boring at all - the Japanese LDP has aways been made up of loads of rival factions who hate each other. It’s a bit like Fianna Fail - it doesn’t have any philosophy or policies, except whatever is needed to win elections.
Just received an email advising that yet another cliet company, this one in the Scottish Borders has ceased trading. I would love to lock Gordon Brown in a room with the employees of that client and indeed some of the hundreds of thousands of others presently losing their jobs because of his incompetent handling of UK PLC for 11 years.
17. Is it really a good idea to have polls released that overstate your candidate? It just manages expectations badly for election day.
Since I am of the opinion that all politicians are a necessary evil and deserve to be poked with a pointy stick as often as possible, I too would prefer A. It makes the loss all the more traumatic for the government which has to be a good thing.
19 I would wish for B. I want Labour to suffer as much as possible and to drive as big a wedge as possible between it and the British people so that the British people never again make the mistake of electing it.
18. Corruption, patronage, and mutual backscratching being rampant. A bit like the EU.
21. He would put it down to Global problems and blame the Tories. Nothings ever Gordon’s fault!!
Ben Brogan thinks the man is John Reid….
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/09/note-to-plotter.html
9,12 Best not post about footy results or you mmight upset Stuart Dickson - like it’s his site! If, however, you wish to drone on interminably about, yawn, Scottish politics, then that’s OK.
Easterross. I’m always confused by those Tories who say that government has nothing to do with the success or failure of business and those like yourself who want to lock Gordon in a room with the hundreds of thousands he’s put out of business. Can we have a unified Tory ruling on this?
15. What’s wrong with what he posted there?
23 Re 207 (previous thread)’If you are a buisnessman sell them the rope’-could be very lucrative in Bridgend..:wink:
Being extremely ignorant about Japan. (Apart from what I’ve gleaned from Haruki Murakami novels.) I was under the impression that women were expected to be quite docile and ‘feminine’ in Japan and not really expected to take leadership roles. Am I wrong?
22. People tend to be a bit like lemmings, they’ll follow a candidate if they think that others are following them. They will be put off supporting an unpopular candidate and warm to a more popular one, I think this phenomenon is well documented.
21. Deal. So long as I can put Thatcher in a room with thousands of Coal Miners.
Its a bit like the Man Utd Arsenal Chelsea syndrome. People follow a winning team. they dont like losers
22 - They aren’t deliberately overstating, they are just gambling that they are right. Those on either extreme are gambling more than most.
On topic: Maybe she will but not yet. My understanding is the same as Morus’s@18.
Having made a few quid backing the last Japanese PM I have to say it was one of teh most straightforward political bets I’ve ever landed at very useful odds indeed.
I believe Caveman got on as well at the time.
If that is any guide, its worth doing a bit of homework.
29 Roger as you have little grasp of reality I am not surprised. Governments create the economic climate within which business operates.
There is the natural economic cycle which says every so often there is a boom and then a few years later there is a bust. We can cope and plan for that because before Gordon “Canute” Brown governments recognised that too.
Then Gordon “Canute” Brown became Chancellor and had the audacity to suggest he could change the natural economic cycle. Therefore in the good times he inherited from John Major instead of saving money and building surpluses he took surpluses and spent them.
Now that the “biblical” 7 fat years are being followed by the 7 lean years, like those outside Egypt not lucky enough to Joseph as their occupant of No 11, we have a Chancellor who has nothing in the larder left which he can us to try and stimulate the economy without pushing us into either Stagflation or a Depression.
19. You forgot to mention the show trials, must have show trials, it’d be reality television that would actually be worth watching. Then declare that anniversaries of election day be public holidays henceforth.
27 Hmm…. interesting, but the best price I can find for John Reid is 17/1 which is hardly value. A number of bookies who were offering a market on the next Labour leader appear to have taken their prices down, or maybe that because it’s Sunday evening.
27: ‘I thought I should report what a senior member of Team Dave told me the other day. The Labour guy the Tories worry about is not Alan Johnson, but John Reid.’
Why do I get the impression that someone at CCHQ is pulling Brogan’s plonker?
41
The thought had occurred to me. I think Reid’s past is a big handicap.
41 more to the point, why would anyone think that anyone would worry about Alan Johnson - its like saying the Tories are terrified of a Ruth Kelly premiership
38 Your grasp is on your right hand.
42 not a chance though - why would current cabinet members like Milliband and Blears fall in line behind an outsider? Reid as a stalking horse yes, as a serious candidate no - there are current cabinet members in line ahead of him
G “So long as I can put Thatcher in a room with thousands of Coal Miners.”
I know who I would bet for coming out on top if she were in her prime.
For such a short and relatively delicate lady she packed a nuclear punch, a memory like the proverbial elephant and an instinct for the opponent and their weak spot that was scary.
18: “I find it odd that any mature democracy should fail to develop a powerful, opposition to the major party. Any thoughts (from anyone) as to why this might be?”
Not an expert on Japanese politics (although I live there) but here goes:
- For a long time the main opposition was from the left, and the constitution and electoral system were specifically designed to keep the Commies out.
- When the opposition had their chance in 1993 they blew it with some tactical screw-ups.
- Japanese politics is pork-barrel heaven with very strong individuals and fairly weak parties. If what you’re after is more pork for your area, it makes sense to keep on reelecting your corrupt scumbag of a representative, since they’ll be better at delivering the goods than the new person you could replace them with.
- The status quo is maintained by electoral laws and the electoral system - for example, there are bans on using the internet to campaign, which makes things harder for insurgents. This kind of stuff is a descendant of the laws designed to keep the Commies out, which worked even better than expected…
- Notwithstanding the above, Minshuto are now in a solid position as the main opposition, and it would just be a matter of time until they took over were it not for the fact that Ozawa will probably decide to smash it up again sooner or later.
46 Dont forget it wasnt all the miners who wanted to strike it was less than half. They probably hate Scargill more than Mrs Thatcher
Reid? Who knows but summats up.
The ‘rebels’ have let it be known their will be further resignations after the conference. They have as much interest as Brown in keeping the party intact, so this week will not be knockdown time.
But the pressure and destabilisation as the Brownies search for the guilty parties will continue through the week, the paranoia will gain apace.
But if the mantra is that now is not the time, the unspoken corollary is that the time is soon?
A reshuffle will be interesting if Brown remembers the old advice that you should keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
Has he got the gumption or will be put Swiss Tony, Kelly, Smith, Hutton on the back benches with Blears? Or will he try to promote Hutton to Defence. Trouble with that is its a post where plotting become second nature.
33 they’d need protective gear.
The miners of Britain should blame Scargill far more for their fate than Thatcher.
49
There is a big problem with a reshuffle, I distincly remember Brown when he bacame PM saying he had an excellent team and that they would remain in situ until the GE. If he resuffles , questions will be asked, and lots of them. I am beginning to suspect that once the conference is over and Brown has had his applause it’ll be all over within a week. There is something telling me that all is not right….
13 I am open minded, which is why my views dont follow fashion or political correctness as defined by the self appointed or by the mob.
At school, there were 2 ‘obvious’ homosexuals, more feminine than masculine. 1 died around 10/11 yrs old. Believe it or no, i stood up for the 2nd when he was picked on, which was often. Some teachers remarked that i must be homosexual also. It had nothing to do with that, just right and wrong.
46 How about putting Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Des Browne in a room of 1000 squaddies mums?
38 - saw this on the Scotsman site
‘Gordon Brown: “In the last 10 years we have reduced the share of the national debt from 44% to 37% so we are in a position to borrow, because of our good housekeeping, to take us through difficult times.”
Office for National Statistics (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206):
“Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was 43.3 per cent at the end of August 2008, compared with 36.4 per cent at end of August 2007. The increase was largely due to Northern Rock which is now included in the figures from October 2007, the date of its classification to the public sector; latest figures for June 2008 show Northern Rock adding 6.0 per cent to the debt ratio.”
50. Yeah. I imagine Thatcher has acidic blood.
Back value of 1.13 for a male victory in Strictly Come Dancing. Highly layable.
Women too hgih at 1.73.
During the last Labour conference there were quite a few Tory defectors paraded. Not just Quentin Davies but some woman councillor and a speech writer from Wales. Were there any this year, out of interest?
57, Betfair this is, btw.
Many thanks for the comments.
Edmund, am I right in saying that New Komeito are currently part of the govt even though they don’t need to be, as the LDP have a majority? (296/480 seats in 2005)
Can’t think of anywhere else in the world (I’m sure someone will!) where this is the case - is this a peculiarly Japanese thing eg the desire for consensus etc?
Thanks
58
I doubt it, who would be mad enough to defect, and if they did, they wouldn’t be shouting about it. Just wondering what Quentin Davies majority is… and how defectors have fared in the past, do they invariably survive>?
55 - Gordon created an “independent” office of National Statistics, and now flat disagrees with what they say.
John Reid may be stirring things for old times sake because he hates Gordon Brown but he is not planning a comeback. His constituency association or whatever Labour calls it has already begun the process of finding a successor for him and she will no doubt be a real Brownite given that most of Scottish Labour still dances to his tune.
Two threads ago someone said “John Prescott looks like he’s going to explode”. I think he has already exploded. He’s like one of those minor moons which has been shattered to bits by a meteorite impact, and the fragments have then coalesced higgledy-piggledy under gravity.
MTF the only defectors who tend to survive are those in rural seats because we tend to look more at the person. Brown will almost certainly have promised Davies a peerage in his dissolution honours list given that majority as a Tory was 7500
60. Switzerland has had the main four parties in coalition government since the dinosaurs. The only thing that changes is the number of cabinet seats being adjusted occasionally.
Liechtenstein had the two main parties in a grand colaition from 1938 to 1997 - even though there were (most of the time) only two parties.
Israel has often had extra-large coalitions, as an insurance against some leaving.
My former MP Bob MacLennan now Lord MacLennan was elected in the 1960s as a Labour MP, defected to the SDP of which he was temporarily leader and succeeded in being elected as an SDP MP and finally became a LibDem and won the seat as that. Frankly Bob would have won even if he had stood for the BNP or Monster Raving Loony Party. It tends to be the person we vote for first up here which is why nobody bothers when our councillors jump back and forward between parties.
54. Hahahahahaha would be brilliant, can I play too? I’d happily explain that IT’S THEIR JOB TO GO AND GET KILLED and they signed up for it!!!!
65
Sorry to hear about your loss of client Easerross, You’ll have to skip the first course at Carnegies in future….
68 You are a disgrace
68, that’s rather juvenile. Nobody signs up to go to war without basic equipment, such as body armour, or with devices to prevent IEDs which aren’t functioning.
You aren’t Rupert Everett, are you?
Earlier on there was a suggestion Ben Bradshaw might defect. Like others I suspect my view would be “no thanks” because he is a toadie loyalist but of course if he does I will gloat like every other Tory (assuming he doesnt defect to the Liberals)
68 - Charlie, I think that’s out of line.
66 - JL - thanks.
Yes I knew at the back of my mind that there were more.
Indeed Swiss cabinet seats party split didn’t change from 1959-2003 under the “magic formula”. SVP gained seat in 2003, and then disowned its own cabinet members after the 2007 election & new govt formation.
And Yisrael Beiteinu were brought in by Olmert to give his govt more Knesset support after the Lebanon war I think - but left after a while - govt still had majority with 4 parties in it.
… but I wouldn’t have got Liechtenstein….
69 MTF not if you are paying
Sky are settling onto a message of ‘Truth has to be dragged out of Brown’ and ‘Milliband/Blears comments highly significant’
Confernece Day 2 - Gordon 0 Rebels 1
68. You sir, are a moron.
68. Ugh.
Sky’s story on Miliband / Blears is here.
68. You twat.
This is on Boulton and co..
The overall sense was of a party rooted to the spot - fascinated by the spectacle of its internal divisions being played out, and yet paralysed: unable to jump one way or the other.
Joey Jones, Boulton & Co.
64. Mr creosote. A wafer sir?
79 Sorry Morus, I just posted an edit from it.
79. What is the Miliband / Blears story? Sky have just alluded to it but not explained it - unless I missed it.
68
And to think they risk their lives for YOU.
83 - why the apology?
79. Thanks!
84 click on the “here” at 79
“Nor will we win by denouncing the Tories record in government, because memories are fading and people have moved on.”
Did these words really come from the mouth of Hazel Blears because, in my opinion, that is all the woman ever does.
68. I think you should apologise double quick for that appalling comment.
68. What a toerag you are.
It’s all so predictable - massive borrowing as the economy goes down the pan while all these cretins in Manchester play politics over which no-mark should be PM without a GE!. Tha marginal poll today is gonna look very very tame once the voters really do get a say.
No really lads, if anyone doesnt believe that something is really on with Labour that Sky article is as clear as day.
Straw openly admits hes been asked to urge Gordon to go?
90. Leave him woody. Worthless apologies from oxygen thieves are just that. Worthless.
93, the pretenders to the throne, chief amongst them Milipede, seem to be bouncing around from obsequeousness[sp] to almost daring to fling a piece of chalk at teacher’s back, and then back again.
Again, time is not on their side. In fact, I think it’s too late. Removing Brown now would do more harm than good. Months of a leadership election as the country sinks into recession, and why? Not for policy, but because Brown isn’t popular enough.
“Your call is important to us. Labour will not presently be governing the country, as we’re too busy fighting like rats in a sack for the glory of being PM for 12 minutes until that nice Mister Cameron takes over on a more permanent basis. Please call back in 3 months.”
Double Carpet
Israel, Japan?
Thank goodness nothing is happening in the US or the UK.
Seriously though, love your piece.
Malcolm
I don’t have anything against our Armed Forces, I have a problem with the families who have the NERVE to claim that it’s the Government’s fault that their son or daughter have been killed.
We don’t have conscription in this country, and in my opinion, it’s the same as a firefighter dying in a blaze.
Sad? Of course.
The government’s fault? Nope. And I’d say the same if it was a Tory government who started the Iraq war.
Well if a firefighter dies in a blaze because they weren’t given the proper eqpt then that is the Govt’s fault as well.
97, given the nature of certain deaths (ie lack of equipment due to poor logistics or inadequate funding) it was a comment made in poor taste.
97 Get lost Charlie, we dont need vile stuff like that from you. Go away until you can behave.
accodibg to the Telegraph - Denial is no longer a river in Africa it is a conference in Manchester.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4799419.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
accodibg = according!
BBC headline says milipede killing off speculation he wants to be leader:))))))
103, the best thing about freeview is that I can watch Sky News. It’s hilarious that a private news corporation provides more impartial and informative coverage than a taxpayer funded organisation supposedly dedicated to just that and equipped with a budget of £3.2bn.
81
Just like the 1990s and the slaughter of Hilda.
That was, and this is, great fun to watch.
Malcolm
100. Yeah, I forgot, having an opinion on here is pretty much impossible.
What about the example of Reg Keys?
Standing against Blair (btw he didn’t use the excuse of lack of equipment, just that it was an ‘illegal war) because his son had been killed in action.
If he was so disgusted about his son fighting this illegal war, or if his son didn’t agree with it, why didn’t he pull out of the Army?
97 That is possibly one of the most sickening and disheartening posts put on pb.com.
It is difficult to imagine the Labour Party more unpopular than it is — but widespread dissemination of this kind of loathsome material should do the trick.
96 - Thanks Malcolm, glad you liked it.
Sunday evenings will normally be the International thread, so this is the place to come (or avoid) depending on your preferences, where the “rest of the world” will get an airing.
Goes without saying that there is tons going on in the UK and US - but there are also elections this autumn in Austria, Canada, New Zealand, very probably Japan, while Livni attempts to put a coalition together in Israel - all things that I’ll be trying to keep an eye on.
But obviously the rest of the week on PB will have plenty of coverage of goings-on in the “big two”.
97,
Indeed? And if the government were to go around lighting unnecessary fires and sending underequipped firefighters into them, would you say over their scorched remains “well, they signed up for it - it’s their job to die”?
How about the ones who signed up before the pyromaniac waltzed into Number 10 singing “Things can only get better”? Well, I suppose they knew what they were signing up for.
The Armed Forces are at a higher operational tempo now than at any time since World War II. And now have been for almost as long as World War II lasted.
You’re out of line. Seriously.
106 When you’re in a hole, stop digging.
97 - Charlie, the vast majority of military families fully understand the voluntary sacrifice that their relatives have made.
The point was that the failure to equip them sufficiently (as has been alleged by many) is a breach of the Military Covenant.
109. You make a good point.
I didn’t realise it would be such a controversial opinion, but fair enough.
I personally find firefighting a much nobler cause than killing people in wars, but I suppose some people may see them as equal.
108. And many of us appreciate it.
106, that’s a particularly bad example. His son, a red cap, had insufficient ammunition and no radio to call for backup. If memory serves, six of them were torn to pieces by a mob because of lack of basic equipment. That is not dying in the line of fire, due to wounds, illness or accident.
Perhaps you were unaware of the background to that. I hope so.
97. It is the fault of the government if they went into a war on conjured-up evidence and then fail to equip them properly.
@ Double Carpet @61
The LDP needed the NKP as coalition partners to control the upper house. Unfortunately for Fukuda the coalition then lost the Upper House in the July 2007 elections. Also the coalition was necessary for the LDP prior to the landslide win for Koizumi in 2005 in the Lower House.
The LDP isnt very right wing. Instead it is a coalition of interest groups with factions forming the basic internal unit. The electoral system in the postwar period favoured such factions as the Lower House had multi member constituencies. This meant each LDP diet member faced off against other LDP candidates as well as those from other parties. Factions allowed individual diet members the wherewithal to raise enough cash to be elected, and thus individual diet member loyalty is to their faction bosses not the party leader. Opposition parties thus faced an amorphous alliance that tended to absorb their most popular policies. The LDP presided over heroic public works spending through the 70s that saw Japanese government debt go from zero to 65% of GDP in about 12 years. So not terribly right wing then. But it has struggled to make reforms at times as well. In addition, the split between right and left on economic policy is equally true in foreign policy: the LDP runs the gamut from nationalists who favour a strong defence policy in alliance with the US to pacifists and to those who are fairly friendly with China. It’s like a non Fabian version of the Indian Congress party. (eg it didnt destroy the economy).
106 Suggest you read about the deaths of the Red Caps, lack of proper planning, communication equipment and back up, with Army, MoD and political failures all playing a part before deciding you know why Reg Keays made a stand.
97. Not good enough, I sat with the father of a murdered soldier at the last election who died because the govt gave them sub standard equipment that didn’t work in Iraq. That is the Government’s fault.
O/T but did anyone notice all the Man Utd touchline staff wearing the AIG branded T shirts. Never seen that before, wonder if it was under American Govt orders to show solidarity.
114. Indeed, I was unaware of that.
Fine, I get the point…I’ll shut up…
Enough of this handwringing already! It’s a website not the UN.
Telegraph thinks Brown has nine months (until June) to sort it all out. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3042972/Labour-conference-Gordon-Brown-given-nine-months-to-save-his-job-by-Cabinet-loyalists.html
Yeah those firefighters who finished off the Nazis…the noblest of all.
122.
Completely different, as the soldiers in WW2 had no option to sign up or not.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7628478.stm
I am not sure that this will really prevent any further speculation
*orders more popcorn*
120. Yeah, it’s only some people’s lives. Get a grip.
123. Apparently firefighting is more noble than killing.
70. Totally agree, what a sorry excuse for a human being.
126. Saving lives or ending them? Pretty obvious to me.
128, And what about killing in WW2 in order to finish the Nazis. as noble a cause or not?
Answer the question.
tomorrows papers fairly grim for Brown - concentrating on tax rises being likely and the leadership ‘challenge’
123 Living in one of the most affluent parts of the South of England, and posturing in student polictics at your comfy university, you are probably completely unaware that there are people with very little choice or opportunity in front of them, other than joining the army.
Their families are, by and large, what would have once been Labour core voters.
New Labour let them down. They let them them down by lying to them. They let them down by failing to equip them properly. They let them down by housing their families in substandard accommodation.
Reg Keays stood up for them. He has a nobility and an integrity that someone like you could never comprehend.
It’s not too surprising with vacuous and superficial people like you, charlie, in Labour, that there is not much core vote left.
129. Of course, it saved British lives. I’m struggling to see how any of our soldiers in Iraq are saving British lives tbh.
130, I just hope he doesn’t go for the short-term easy answer of borrowing.
Unfortunately the groundwork seems to have been laid for this.
I hope the Tories and Lib Dems hammer Labour if they do borrow.
CUN*S
—–
OK well done USA
You lost against
- a few terrorists (2001)
- in Iraq
- in Afghanistan
but you struck lucky and won the Ryder cup for the first time in 500 years!
Enjoy it now spanners.
No wonder you took so long to enter WW1 and 2!
132 - But they don’t get to choose which missions do and don’t. They oblate themselves to whatever is deemed in the interests of their country. They trust that those decisions, made on their behalf by politicians, will be in the interests of making the world a better place. If there is fault, it lies with their political masters.
133 Osborne on the rampage - Brown risking ‘bankrupting’ Britain - 5p on income tax, £100 billion borrowing
132. Right then youve made my point.
136, do you mean he is, or you’d like him to be?
138 he is
68 Is Charlie Dirty European Socialist?
137. Well do you think being a firefighter or a soldier in Britain at the moment is the nobler cause?
140 charlie - not always a friend of mine - is a good poster here.
Are you boo weekley?
I think that one point that charlie has missed is that soldiers, sailors and airmen do not get to pick and choose the wars.
The elect to sign up to defend their country and its interests and put their lives on the line in so doing. In return for this, they trust that the Government of the time will risk their lives sensibly and for good reason. Moreover, that they will take steps to reduce the risk to their lives as much as practicable.
The anger lies in the fact that many feel that the Government is (and has been) risking their lives unnecessarily and not sensibly (deliberately going into a prolonged operational overstretch way beyond reasonable expectations) and has failed in their duty of care to minimise risks (by providing appropriate equipment at the right times).
I do take on board your age - we are all formed by our environment and you had the good fortune to grow into adulthood in a time when the military risk (bar terrorism) to the UK was minimal. I, and many others here (I’m barely in my mid-thirties, so it’s not a holdover from generations gone - I’m not really even one full generation above you), remember growing up in the shadow of the four-minute warning, with Soviet bombers routinely testing the airspace around our island, with real and true fear that the Warsaw Pact would ignite a true shooting war. It’s therefore hard for us to hold in contempt those who volunteered to stand between the danger and our families and loved ones - which is what your posts tonight appear to do.
EDIT: (for “the elect”, read “they elect” )
131. Well said
Labour couldn’t even bother to give us a full time defence Sec.
And who was it exactly who starved the troops of funds (for political gain against people he saw as threats)????? our “noble” pm who isn’t shy of using them for publicity notwithstanding that.
Oh Charlie (right name for you it seems ) surely its not firemen who are most noble but our olympians, your glorious leader equates them to our service men and women in any event.
you sir, are a tool.
141. Much the same Charlie. I also notice when one of them goes on strike its the other one that covers their arse.
According to the Yomiuri newspaper surveys the prefectural votes (141 total available) have been cast as follows:
Aso 90
Yosano 4
Ishiba 1
Ishihara 1
Koike 0
Actually in some cases the local party members were polled, so it isnt just the decision of the local party bigwigs.
A further 386 votes will be cast by LDP diet members of the Upper and Lower house. The Yomiuri predicts a landslide victory for Aso who is believed to have secured at least 211 of the 386 diet member votes.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20080922TDY01304.htm
145, except that Brown greets Olympians when they arrive home, of course.
Steering the subject matter back onto politics, Brown’s speech is on Tuesday, I think. Any chance it will have an impact? I suppose in his favour is the low bar set last year.
148 Brown won’t be greeting the golfers a welcome……
145. Thanks, I appreciate the insults.
I believe that doctors, nurses and firemen play a far more important role in my life than anyone in the Armed Forces, if you don’t agree with that, fair enough.
why engage ‘charlie’?
His goal is not to win an argument. It is to waste your time.
149 He probably wished them good luck…….
150 I don’t and you wouldn’t be saying that if we were under threat from another Country,
150. Id agree with that, thats why i think theres no point spending money on security for ambulance staff, doctors and nurses.
If they sign up and get trained to help people who are drunk, drugged up and whatever else, its not the government’s job to try to equip them adequately with the best protection.
They knew the story when they signed up.
Back to the US election:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
This use of democratic resources is an interesting thing. Bold or stupid I am not sure? Surely letting one side dominate the ground visually is a mistake? I don’t know how large get the vote operations are in the states but given the percieved problems in Obama’s Name and race, this could well be another marginal vote lossing mistake, particularly in those states that tip the balance. This is not a primary election but the real deal, If I were the Dems I would be doing it by the trusted methods not recklessly punting on such a move: Seems crazy to me!
154.
Great point I must admit.
148 Dr Ian Gibson (of being shouted at in supermarkets fame) says it needs to be a barnstormer to save him
I predict not
As for Charlies League of Nobility - I do not believe acts of nobility need ranking, but lets put it like this
1) Firefighters and The Armed Forces
……
15) Char Ladies
……
340) AListair Campbell
…..
7006) Christiano Ronaldo and Boo Weekley
…..
Much lower and in fact bottom) Charlie
148
Impact of Brown’s speech?
Either a swing to the left for Labour or more rebels,or maybe both.
In olden days siege, charlie would have been fired from a catapult over the city walls on to the enemy hoards.
In WW1 the neighbourhood wives would have crowned him with pots and pans.
These days, we have the Labour party. Although, that will change soon enough.
155. Straws…clutching…
157 HAHAHAHAHA
Havent read the thread fully so dont understand why charlie is getting the abuse……….
158, it does make me wonder what the Tories will do, both specifically and as a general approach. It could be steady as she goes, or they might try to unveil shiny new policies like last time.
Charlie - Are you really sure you want a military that decides who/when it fights? If so, you might get this….
Fight to a Finish
THE boys came back. Bands played and flags were flying,
And Yellow-Pressmen thronged the sunlit street
To cheer the soldiers who’d refrained from dying,
And hear the music of returning feet.
‘Of all the thrills and ardours War has brought,
This moment is the finest.’ (So they thought.)
Snapping their bayonets on to charge the mob,
Grim Fusiliers broke ranks with glint of steel,
At last the boys had found a cushy job.
. . . .
I heard the Yellow-Pressmen grunt and squeal;
And with my trusty bombers turned and went
To clear those Junkers out of Parliament.
This is the entire point of all the talk off the record and now increasingly on the record about Brown.
His opponents are putting hurdles in front fo him that he is simply unlikely to get over:
Glenrothes, a storming conference speech….those are thinsg he is going to have a hell of a task achieving.
163. I didn’t say I wanted that.
My point was, that if people didn’t want to fight the war, they didn’t have to.
People have made good points about equipment etc, and I have taken all this on board.
As I’ve said before, I come on here to try and learn things, and the level of vitriol I received for my post has made me look at the facts closer. I appreciate people willing to share information on here.
160. Not sure what you mean about that, I was commenting on strategy and for me I was pretty open minded till the last sentence! You would think they would be looking for certainty not wild gambles on new methods that may not work in a general election!
164, I think that for Labour and (much more importantly) knifing Brown now would do more harm than good. A few months ago they had a window of opportunity, and they blew it.
If Brown goes, for whatever reason, they have:
1) months of a leadership contest
2) a few months before calling a general election
whilst the economy slides, and who knows if we’ll have another week like the last. Imagine that, the FTSE down 8% in 2 days and a part-timer in Number 10.
Brown’s dire, but there are worst replacements, and right now it would be better for the country if Labour’s senior chaps stopped being so damned careerist and lined up behind Brown so he doesn’t make quite so many cockups as usual.
151 Charlie is surely a double-agent sent out by Ave It.
It is clever form of reverse-propaganda.
Charlie’s trying to make the Labour Party look even more ridiculous than it already is. Charlie’s trying to offend as much of Labour’s core vote that remains.
The aim is no longer TORIES gain BOOTLE. The aim is no longer TORIES gain EVRYTHING.
Ave It’s aim is now more ambitious still.
It is NO Labour votes (NIL, ZILCH, NOTHING) whatsoever in 2010.
That is why Charlie has been sent among us.
POULTER = HERO
LABOUR = SPANNERS
Anyway, I’m off to contemplate laying Rachel Stevens. I may be some time.
168 but that would be boring.
Although it would be HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE.
9.Well spotted Woody, Ave it was on the money.
Looking through the thread I found a post from Mike that I didn’t think I would manage to find again.
@55.”Somebody has emailed me to say that he “knew for certain that Gordon is a regular visitor to Politicalbetting and checks it every morning”. I have no idea what to make of this.”
33.”21. Deal. So long as I can put Thatcher in a room with thousands of Coal Miners.”
Deal, as long as Maggie gets to bring the millions of voters who were like her sick of being made to suffer from the endless strikes and who believed that in a democracy one group should not be allowed to overall the majority if they did not like the result!
55.‘Gordon Brown: “In the last 10 years we have reduced the share of the national debt from 44% to 37% so we are in a position to borrow, because of our good housekeeping, to take us through difficult times.”
Marcia, Fraser restored my faith in journalists a bit on the Daily Politics show. The link to it and a guide to when it happened can be found here at the Coffee House Blog.
170 its better than the Ryder Cup!!!!!!!
172.Overall should be over rule.
166
try finding out a few facts before you start posting…..
167. His opponents who are putting this trouble together dont much care though. As far as they are concerned he needs to go to give them a chance to come round, however small.
162. They will have to unveil something big in order to overshadow Brown’s inevitable unscheduled headline grabbing visit to Mars next Monday.
165. Try the British Army Rumour Service if you want vitriol. They will supply you with all the 100% by vol you can take away….
I will try and make this simple - The armed forces do what the politicians tell them because the alternative is a military dictatorship. The flip side is that the politicians have the duty to make sure that the cause is just, the war aims reasonable and the equipment is there.
If you a ranker or a non-comissioned officer, you can’t just quit. It is a legal obligation. Otherwise you end up in a glasshouse (really, really nasty prison).
Officers can resign - but there are other pressures. Look up the Curragh Mutiny to see why picking and choosing what fighting you are prepared to do is regarded as mutiny….
161 Charlie opened a can of whoop ass on the Armed Forces.
Charlie reaped the whirlwind.
Natural justice, pb.com style was administered
162. I’m sure there will be at least one, big, eye catching, focus group derived policy, like last years IHT bomb GeorgieO dropped on Labour.
The main thing that needs to come out of this years Conservative conference, though, is a clear vision of exactly what a Cameron government would be like. The key areas of the economy, health, education, crime all need to be woven together by one big theme and Camerons speech needs lots of talk of “vision” and “coming on a journey with him to transform the county, because we’re going to do this…. And this…. And this…. And all these things are part of my vision that Britain needs to be doing this….”
He needs to contrast Browns talk, after he delayed the election and said he wanted to show the country his vision, but didn’t have one, with his (Camerons) vision which can be summed up in peoples mindS by just one phrase.
177 I’ll never eat another one….
166. I mean that yard signs are going to have 0 effect on the election. none, zip, zlich, nada, none etc. If you think they will, you must have really lost all hope in McCain.
167. To be honest it does not really matter if their is no PM at the moment. He only got involved with the Llolds TSB/Halifax because that would have been the end of him the Labour Party and a much more severe housing crisis plus another huge bailout along the lines of NR.
The C of E would be more than capable of working with the B of E govornor, the head of the FSA and the civil service without Brown. No body is indespensible and with all of Brown’s economic decision the Devil’s in the detail. Everything Brown has done has screwed up under closer inspection or been seen to lack comptence. Brown needs removing now! It is not good enough for the Tories to want to keep Brown in place because it enables them to win a 150 seat majority instead of a 50 seat one! The Tories need to pull their finger out and insist that as Labour have failed to unite behind Brown, he is removed or an immediate GE or a leadership contest followed by a GE.
179 ok ‘dyed’ i have read it now……
Time for charlie to have a rest…….
Lets talk about the ryder cup instead. Everyone hates Boo Weekley dont they???
184 yes, very much so - why the Americans would allow someone so boorish to represent them is…. oh wait a minute
Joking aside, he is a git though
As for fatty Mickelson….
Prescott on the ITN news giving away badgers.
Or possibly badges.
Generally though a dire resume of Labour’s Manchester sh1t-fest.
Ryder Cup: worst result since 1981…………
186 did those show his clarion call? It was all very Light Brigade
182.McCain is still in the race and I think he will win!
All I am saying is it seems a strange thing to do and even democrats are questioning it! Momentum seems to be a big thing in US politics and to explore my thinking further, on election day the Dems will try and get there vote out.
If there is a Bradley effect in play and people who have said they will turn out and vote democrat get automated calls from the Dems or Knocked up come election day. They may just ignore the call or the Dems could be knocking people up and on their way to vote they see McCain Boards it may have a greater affect than you percieve. Just a thought - You may not agree with it but phychology in elections is more important than many regard it.
68.”54. Hahahahahaha would be brilliant, can I play too? I’d happily explain that IT’S THEIR JOB TO GO AND GET KILLED and they signed up for it!!!!”
Words fail me, and I say that as someone who is away to watch their brother head off for another tour of Afghanistan. You mention @128 that “Saving lives or ending them? Pretty obvious to me”, that only compounds your ignorance on this subject. Who steps in when the Fireman are on Strike, or there is a disaster both natural or man made unfolding?
“Natural justice, pb.com style was administered”
A bunch of hyenas more like it. PB.Com at it’s least attractive. Well done to Charlie for keeping his cool in a way that his tormentors should envy.
187. You’ll find a few pb.com regulars had cash on the Americans to win this, me included.
Just seen the Telegraph headline for tomorrow on Politics home (but not the text, its too small). It says “Brown given 9 month deadline”. Are they stark sttaring bomkers???, that only leaves 9 months or thereabouts befor the GE.
Futures markets in the US open on a downward trip - reports coming in of Henry Paulson on a giant roller coaster shouting ‘get me off this f*cking thing, its not worth a trillion dollars a go’
Its late, its Sunday and its another scary week ahead in the markets - there are only funfair analogies and Ave It’s golfing meltdown to enjoy
Found it on the DT site
#
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3042972/Labour-conference-Gordon-Brown-given-nine-months-to-save-his-job-by-Cabinet-loyalists.html
191 lol, interesting way of looking at it.
The Ryder Cup has been saved for another generation by the great matches we’ve seen this weekend (and by a USA win).
I’m just waiting for the undeserved crap to be poured on Nick Faldo’s head. I think he got his strategy right and his pick of Poulter was obviously vindicated.
But the USA players played better so they won.
My bet on Harrington for top EU points scorer… well, let’s just say it didn’t come off.
And why can’t Garcia play matchplay singles?!?!?!
191. Charlie defended by Roger.
Is it actually possible to increase the amount you have lost by - *after* the knock out?
193 - **does a little dance**
Brown’s going to lead Labour into the election. Happy days!
The rescue plan as put up by the Treasury is about to the subject of a rather hefty political battle in Congress
198. Unbelievable and without a trace of irony.
186 Is it at all helpful for Brown to have his chief defender be John Prescott?
We have Prescott and Campbell out proclaiming need for unity, Derek Draper attacking LabourHome and various other old stagers urging control and unity.
Meanwhile the Lancashire Mafia and West Scotland Re(i)d Tendency, interestingly both with large Catholic Labour membership, with help from occasional North Easters talk of recognising our mistakes etc.
198
I dont think Roger has been taking his pills recently.
192 ok i thought they would win too - that doesnt mean i like it….
197 poulter = no 1 and good call by faldo
191 ahh the much sought Roger endorsement.
In future, such statements will leave the poster liable to prosecution, with more severe punishment during wartime.
195. If they seriously think they can get rid of Brown in June 2009 and get away with not calling an election for another year, they had better think the hell again. The get rid of Brown next summer, its an autumn 2009 election. Honestly, anyone would think Labour see the voters as a nuisance that must be gotten around and avoided at all costs….
Persoanlly I think if they don’t do Brown in this autumn then hye’ll be there until 2010. We’ll get to summer 2009 and people will realise its just too late and they are stuck with the loser until Meltdown Day!
202.Ted, if you have not already seen it go over to the Coffee House Blog and see Fraser Nelson take on Prescott about the Brownite comfort blanket interpretation of the *figures*. I linked to it @172.
After Marr this morning, it certainly restored my faith in our political journalists.
The elections in June 2009 could be one of the biggest electoral disasters for any UK political parties.
I can hardly wait!
206.”195. If they seriously think they can get rid of Brown in June 2009 and get away with not calling an election for another year, they had better think the hell again.”
Gin, I posted a wee theory about that being the case just recently on here, and with the something along the lines of “they had better think the hell again” to go with it.
Is there any way that some form of mass protest could develop that could force an early election (assuming the (s)election of a new Labour leader)?
We can huff and puff on the blogosphere but that is easy to ignore.
If, as looks increasingly likely, a heavy Labour defeat is an almost inevitable outcome, there is nothing for them to be gained in going early.
But could some form of protest movement generate suffficient pressure to bring forward the poll?
208. Well Simon, when you think the county council seats were all contested on general election day 2005, theres a lot there for Labour to lose. And of course the Euro Elections will see a lot of anger directed at Labour over the european constitution. With UKIP much weaker now, the prospect is there for a much improved Conservative performance.
209. Great minds think alike, eh Chris? Lanour need to understand that it simply won’t do to ditch Brown next summer and brazen it out for 12 months. When Brown goes, Labour will have 3 months, maximum to call an election before people should take to the streets in protest at this illegitimate Prime Minister ruling over us with no popular mandate.
207/209 I did see it and that in part is why I questioned allowing Prescott a major role - presumably Gordon’s highly expensive PR guys couldn’t convince him to keep out of the studios. He came over as unattractive, smug and self important - a gift for Sopel and the BBC in televisual terms - but I see Cruddas believes it was a victory for Prescott over Clarke.
Disagree on June 2009 - vote at Labour Conference in September, new PM points out an election is due within months anyway and he needs time to set out his stall. Electorate give him a chance, polls bounce, likely loss but not wipeout. Balls made CoE by Miliband as a sop to the Brownites, Johnson Leader of the House and Deputy PM, jobs for Dougie and Ed Miliband as well.
206.”195. If they seriously think they can get rid of Brown in June 2009 and get away with not calling an election for another year, they had better think the hell again.”
If they get rid of him June/July, they can hold their leadership election July/August, ‘coronate’ the new Leader at conference in September and simply say there and then the election will be in June 2010, 8 months later.
What would be the problem with that?
I’m off to bed now. Just a quick note about our 5th columnist Charlie…
His post is not an uncommon sentiment amongst Labour types. I have heard it many times from their ilk. Point is, if this is how a great many (perhaps majority of) Labour supporters think, this is also how their MPs think.
When you watch the behaviour of Labour MPs, flirting with terrorists, praising our enemies, belittling the Armed Forces, cutting the defence budget during wartime, cutting the Armed Forces’ numbers more efficiently than 1000 IEDs…if you cant understand why Labour would do that, refer yourself to charlies post
These people are in government.
206. Why couldn’t they do it? What are we going to do about it? Post stuff on Internet blogs until we get a General Election?
The way the Labour leadership rules appear to work would indicate that were Brown to be removed, we would have an interim leader (appointed by cabinet) and then the permanent leader (voted by the party)
So we would have 3 unelected Prime Ministers in the space of a few months.
Now I know there is no constitutional bar to this - but it is not a healthy state of affairs for our nation.
A new leader would be foolish to delay an election - they would have no mandate and no moral authority to speak on behalf of the nation.
The problem would be that we would have a Prime Minister taking over the running of the nation on Blairs mandate. Its simply wrong in principle. We’re not some 18th century empire where these things are decided by rich men stiching things up between themselves and the riff raff can go hang if they don’t like it. We’re a modern, Parliamentery democracy - Labour can change its leader as much as it wants, in opposition. They can change every day and let all their MP’s have a go for all I care. But when it comes to forcing a Prime Minister on the country that has no mandate from anybody and wasn’t even on anyones radar in 2005, and then to think they just brazen it out for months, with this person taking decision daily that influence all our lives, would be completely outrageous, IMO.
216- A new leader would be foolish to delay an election - they would have no mandate and no moral authority to speak on behalf of the nation.
No, but they’d have some time to define themselves.
218. More time to force themselves on the long suffering, unsuspecting British people you mean. I can’t believe people are seriously considering this is acceptable!
217. All of that is true, but it still doesn’t mean they can’t change leaders and wait a year for a GE. In June 2009 Gordon is led off to a home for bewildered auld fellows to sit in a pool of urine contemplating the dreekit weather while Milliband Major becomes PM and announces he needs a year to articulate his vision and the General Election will therefore be in June 2010. Short of rioting what can we do about it? Nothing.
217 by September 2009 the GE will be due in months and Miliband (or Harman?) would be playing on the electorates propensity for fair play to allow them a decent interval. A third leader now would face enormous pressure to go for a 2009 election, one in a years time wouldn’t.
218 - I don’t want a Prime Minister who is simply there to define themself.
If a new Labour leader has a new direction then they should go to the country as soon as possible to gain a mandate.
It is not as if they haven’t had time to think about it. Anyone considering the idea of standing for the leadership of their party must have clear ideas as to new policies and new themes to develop - otherwise how are they going to campaign for the top job.
So - get elected to the leadership and then seek a mandate from the public.
That would be the honourable thing to do
220. What would happen if the Conservatives and Lib-Dems withdrew from the House?
211&212. I honestly believe that some of those rebels, or those behind the scenes are aware of the problems of trying to shaft the public in this way. Brown needed to have the summer and the chance for one big relaunch which we know bombed before it was even out of the starting block.
That is why I think that this September was earmarked as the launch of a coup, remove him over the Autumn and then go for a Spring GE because no one will argue that would have to be the earliest practical time frame after the winter. It also allows a new PM/Leader at least 6 months to bed in and try and turn things around.
217- point taken about Blair’s mandate, particularly given the fact that Blair seems to be the only one of them who scores above %30 in polls despite not even being in Parliament.
But reality trumps morality in this, I suspect. A new PM will catch peoples’ attention and arouse their curiosity, whether that seems fair or not.
If whoever it was could manage to present an attractive character while seeming serious and effective, Labour could find themselves significantly better off despite the offence caused to those who, let’s face it. won’t be voting for them anyway.
Gordon has had well over a year to define himself.
Not gone very well has it?
Have any of the pretenders got a vision to set before us? From the coded language and hints we have seen so far, I am far from convinced.
If Labour fail to act this autumn, it is going to look a tad cynical (Massive under-exegeration) given the recent ructions for Brown to be ditched next year after the Euro elections!
The original thought of wait till after June 2009 was Cunning, the Labour turmoil that enveloped has scuppered this opportunity.
Labour could quite rightly be seen to be putting party interest in front of national interest first by not acting this autumn.
The Tories would be wise if Brown is still in place to make Brown centre of the Euro elections, they could cite the failure of Labour to remove him in the autumn as a cynical exercise if they then try removing him or he resigns on health grounds post euro elections.
223. It doesn’t matter what would happen because they wouldn’t.
221. Thats still possibly 9 months from the limit. A HUGE amount of legislation that effects all our lives could be passed in that time. And the other point is, Labour doesn’t NEED to change its leader. If it does get rid of Brown, its doing so for its own advantage, so I don’t really see why I should be “fair” and let them have another 9 months for this person to define themselves.
226- with respect, that’s because Gordon is an idiot.
220.”Short of rioting what can we do about it? Nothing.”
Well there was that riot or three under Thatcher.. No seriously, the longer the Labour party bluff it out against a possible very unimpressed electorate the bigger the defeat they would face. And remember, some of those future contenders for the Labour leadership are still ambitious and do not want to be left with a small rump of a party on the opposition benches.
229 - Labour doesn’t NEED to change its leader. If it does get rid of Brown, its doing so for its own advantage, so I don’t really see why I should be “fair” and let them have another 9 months for this person to define themselves.
Not entirely clear to me how you’re going to stop them.
Much as I enjoy watching Labour in turmoil, I believe that we are stuck with Gordon until the GE.
We aren’t going to see a challenge this autumn - the new leader couldn’t be elected in time for the Queen’s Speech. So we either delay that (and cause legislative paralysis) for the new leader to come up with some content or the Queen has to deliver an address written by a leader who has been deposed by his own party.
There then won’t be a challenge in the run up to the elections in early June - they need to pretend to be united to save as many seats as possible.
Then after the June disaster, who on earth would want to take over a doomed party. Better to leave Gordon in position to take the fall and then regroup after the GE
227. I think the June 2009 switch is now the core Labour strategy and it’s not a bad one. Let the electorate bukkake all over Gordon at the Euros then he can take the blame. Give Milliband (or whoever) 12 months at the crease while borrowing heavily and showering the electorate with the sweet fruits of the Keynesian vine before rolling the bones in a June 2010 election.
Ed Balls MP shows off his tackle
232. I’m not.
But hopefully the nation together will. They do regular polling and focus groups and hopefully the message will get through loud and clear that the majority of people would find it completely outrageous and unacceptable to govern the country in this way.
236. Yes, of course, the Labour party won’t do something because people find it “outrageous and unacceptable”. Who’s going to stab a police horse in Trafalgar Square to get an Election in June 2009 rather June 2010? Nobody. Labour knows this.
235. Comfort eating, perhaps?
If I may dare to return to the topic for a moment…
It is interesting that Ms Koike is one of the candidates this time and may well be significant in future. It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that the result is really a foregone conclusion - the only reason Aso has so many challengers is that the LDP encouraged this to ensure the media focus was entirely on them for a few weeks, in order to boost their poll ratings before calling a general election.
If the LDP don’t manage to regain enough support (from recent levels) to maintain a sold majority, though, it would not be that surprising if there was a major realignment of parties (i.e. members of parliament changing parties). This has happened before and in that scenario Koike-san might become more prominent - she was not originally a LDP MP, having started out in the New Japan Party, which was instrumental in the LDP’s last (brief) exit from power. And she has a very high public profile, as an ex-TV news anchorwoman.
Finally, don’t forget that Japan has had some very prominent female politicians, not least the long-time leader of the opposition, Takako Doi. Don’t let the ’shy and retiring’ image fool you!
235. Balls really is a fat f***er thes days.
237. And what about when the voters finally do get their revenge for all of this in 2010? Any advantage that is gained from ditching Brown and putting someone else in would be totally blown away by the anger of allowing this person for govern for months on end without calling an election. Labour are already facing a lot of anger over the mess they’ve made of the economy, without something else coming along to raise the voter ire. This country is not the plaything of the Labour Party to do whatever they hell they want. If they did take Brown out and then just try and brazen it out, make no mistake, the election, when it finally did come (assuming it wasn’t abolished al together
) would be harsher for Labour than it will hitherto be (and it going to be pretty bad, we can be sure of that)
234. Yes, It has the potential to backfire big style though!
The Tories have had a dry run with a PM change last year, they can create a far more cutting edge next time round and lets remeber Cameron has the chance to improve his standing with the public, solidyfy it further. By changing next year, Labour in a sense are giving Cameron the advantage of being a permeant key construct in the political landscape. Who-ever replaces Brown would suffer from being percieved as a Lightweight, the only thing Labour Posters could clutch to in recent polls was Cameron being seen as a Leightweight. If Labour got Miliband for instance that blows the Cameron Leightweight issue out of the water and indeed Cameron would IMO be seen as the heavyweight on the political scene.
If any leader would be really shafted by a leadership change it would be Clegg! But you can draw your own conclusions for why I think that.
This article by Martin Kettle on Dave Miliband in the Guardian is worth a read. Cometh the hour
191: ‘A bunch of hyenas more like it. PB.Com at it’s least attractive.’
I rarely agree with Roger but I think he has a point in this instance. Charlie’s argument that when one joins the Armed Forces one knows the risk and that it’s poor form for relatives to whine and puke* if there’s a tragic loss of life is valid, though it could have been more sensitively put. The different point, about this government’s appalling attitude to equipping the military, is irrefutable. When I first posted here the amount of disapprobation heaped upon me by Roger, Tyson, Jack W and others was shocking, and I had merely stated my reservations about Gordon Brown’s fitness for office. I do not like to witness the treatment that was meted out to me done to others.
* The phrase ‘whine and puke’ was used by a Conservative MP about this very matter around the time of the first Gulf War and was roundly condemned by Neil Kinnock.
241.Good point Gin, a new leader with fresh idea’s and the courage to go for a GE sooner rather than later, say spring if Brown goes this Autumn, might be treated more favourable by Labour leaning voters who are not showing any enthusiasm for turning up at the polling booth.
A new PM elected at the September 2009 Labour Party Conference wouldn’t have time to implement anything before a GE, even if it is delayed until May 2010.
October and November 2009 would be the last 2 months of a Parliament, so no time to introduce any new legislation. There would then be a very short Parliamentary session starting in late November or early December 2009 up until dissolution in early April 2010. There would be no chance of getting any substantial legislation through in this period, and anything which did go through would not actually be implemented pre GE.
As far as tax and spend, it would be far too late to make any changes to taxes for the 2009/10 financial year. There would be a Budget in March 2010 which could introduce changes which would hit pay packets at end of April 2010 - just days before the GE.
So any new PM is only going to be able to tell the public what they want to do - it will be too late for the public to actually see any changes.
244.The usual offensive offering from you, not surprised.
245. Exactly. I don’t think Labour will do much better if they have the election in 2009 or 2010. They are heading for a thumping. Going early with a new leader might improve things a bit. And don’t foget, we’ll still be in quite an economic mess next spring. Why not lets Cameron take over and see if he and Ossie hang themselves?
246. Hmmmm… You have a point.
*BUT* I still think it would be outrageous on principle. 
248.”And don’t foget, we’ll still be in quite an economic mess next spring. Why not lets Cameron take over and see if he and Ossie hang themselves?”
I damn well nearly added just that point at the end as the most attractive option for an ambitious politician looking to redefine and regroup a Labour party in opposition looking not to the wilderness, but more a well earned rest.
Anyway, for all the speculation, like I say, I still think if Labour don’t go against Brown now (like before the end of the year) he will be there right to the election and Labour will just have to make the best of it. I remember with John Major’s removal people kept putting it off. When the 1995 leadership conest came and the likes of Portillo blew it, the moment had passed. As the Tories went into 1996 they realised they had run out of time. Remember, the Consevratives had another terrible local election result in 1996 yet still Major carried on. Personally, I think thats what will happen here. If Brown gets to New Years Day 2009, I think he’ll last the duration (unless illness or death deals its hand) And I think the likes of Lady Polly realise this, which is why she is heaping so much pressure on the Labour Party to move right now.
Surely in the real world Labour have absolutely no interest whatsoever in going early - they’ll get no credit for courage that they can bank on in the polling booth; whatever the details a definite shed-load will lose their jobs including some quite senior people; and every day that comes is another day that Cameron might get caught sniffing coke under a gaggle of rent-boys while eating babies stolen from the poor by evil capitalists working for shadowy neo-con Zionists. Or not paying his TV license - or something else that equally proves his contemptible depravity.
If they’re rational, they’ll hang on like limpets.
251. That was the logic for holding out to the bitter end with John Major in the 90’s. In the end the Tories went down to a 180 Labour majority. Would the result have been differant if Portillo had took over the summer 1996 and gone for an election sometime in the autumn of 95 or spring of 96? Probably not, but we’ll never know.
summer of 1995, not summer of 1996. Its getting late.
247: ‘The usual offensive offering from you’
Well, I’m sorry you find my post offensive as I was trying to be tactful. Perhaps if you could highlight what you found so objectionable then maybe I’ll do better in the future.
250.”I still think if Labour don’t go against Brown now (like before the end of the year) he will be there right to the election and Labour will just have to make the best of it.”
That is where I disagree with you, if Labour do not go against Brown this year, and instead opt to put off any attempt to remove him until the Spring they will make the same mistake they did when they simple accepted his coranation instead of a leadership contest last year.
It will be far too late for the move to have any electoral benefit, instead the new leader will have to either go for an Autumn GE in the midst of a recession, or face further anger by putting it off until 2010.
But, I still maintain that any strategy of leaving Brown in place until after a 2010 election will be doomed to fail, because quite simple he will not be there at the end as Major was to lead the troops to defeat. He will stand down at the last minute leaving a far greater mess behind him.
Those that say he has wanted this job for too long to simple walk away, forget that the most consistent trait that Brown has shown throughout his career has been to walk away from a contest where he risked losing. What about an election he was absolutely certain to lose, and lose badly?
251.I think you crossed the line there with that post.
252 - was it not also the logic for holding out to the bitter end in 1992, when Major was the new(ish) face but the polls were all against him? That time it worked.
I appreciate it can’t be done again this far out though, because as you say at this stage it’s too early to finesse the argument about a new leader requiring a new election.
Next September would be just about right for trying to get away with it. though. And if by some outrageous fortune the new PM was Flint, you might find any electoral calculations based on middle-aged men might have to be re-written! (Not a very serious thought, but one I find amusing, for some reason! - (would do smiley here if could))
256 - no offence intended to anyone - actually I quite like Cameron - I was trying to be satirical in the modern fashion. Sorry if I’ve not quite grasped the boundaries. Not entirely sure who I might have offended though.
Why does the idea of PM Flint make me shudder and contemplate emigrating?
256. Does everything offend you?
Just had to get this in. Former supporters of Hillary are leaving Democrat’s to join McCain. What do you think of that?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/21/1430406.aspx
Evening all - interesting to see people suggesting Labour might get a ‘courage’ bounce for going early with a new leader. Can’t see it myself, anyone motivated to vote at the moment just wants to kick Labour so going early is red rag to a bull. Surely sensible to play for Spring 2010 now, and come up wíth a coherent strategy for some serious good news policies in early 2010.
A new leader in place next September would have no problem holding out for Spring - they’d be able to say that they would need some months in office to be judged and to form a full manifesto.
BTW - I’ve been away for over a week, I understand SBS is not well - could someone clarify if there is any news on him? Many thanks
263. SBS posted yesterday, I think he’s going in for his operation tomorrow? I could be wrong.
Hyenas are underrated animals: anatomically their ‘wedding tackle’ is quite fascinating, so zoologists say.
261 — I think they’re stupid, and by the way I think you’ve watched ‘The Manchurian Candidate’ a few too many times.
Hyenas are underrated animals: anatomically their ‘wedding tackle’ is quite fascinating, so zoologists say.
Thank God someone’s finally told me that!
A joke in tomorrow’s super soaraway Sun.
SOMEONE with the Midas touch has good fortune and everything they have contact with “turns to gold”.
PM Gordon Brown is said to have the “Andrex touch”.
THE Government are sneaky. They raise tax on alcohol, then make the country such a mess you have to drink more.
Per Trevor Kavanagh:
“The trouble is that, as Chancellor, Gordon ran the economy in much the same way as the bosses of troubled companies such as HBOS and Northern Rock.
While preaching “prudence”, he doubled spending and borrowed like there was no tomorrow.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kavanagh/article1717434.ece
mmm think that headline should be bigger!
258.Charlie2, sorry, it was not me being offended. I simple thought it was a dodgy from the view of being careful about getting the site into trouble that’s all.
260.No, just people making really offensive comments especially when I have a close relative going to a war zone! In fact, I was just recently speaking to someone I know who tragically became a widow last year when her husband was killed in Afghanistan.
You posted a thoughtless comment, just own up to it and move on rather than compound by trying to have a go a me because I with justification called you on it.
269 - On the article. It got me back ranting away in the newsroom about Gordon Brown’s ridiculous plan to rebuild every school in the country. WHY!?!?!?!?!?!?
He might as well just dig a hole and pour cash in.
I admit my initial post could have been more sensitive, but I stand by my point.
I do concede however, if it’s proved that the death was due to poorly funded equipment, then of course the government should take some degree of responsibility.
267. On “Spitting Image” at the time of the privatisation of water they had a satirical song about “There’s Plenty of Money in Sewage” (I don’t remember the exact title).
267. Sun also says “WHAT’S brown and makes a mess of everything? The PM.”
275. What’s brown and sticky? A stick. What’s Brown and getting unstuck? The PM. What’s shiny and sticky? A millipede with treacle smeared on it. What’s shiny and laughs a lot? Miliband. Er… is that enough rubbish jokes? Harman.
273- “if it’s proved that the death was due to poorly funded equipment, then of course the government should take some degree of responsibility.”
Out of, say, 360 degrees of responsibility, how much should the government take?
Who should take the remainder?
273.”I admit my initial post could have been more sensitive, but I stand by my point.”
Your point is based on a very lazy and easy assumption often peddled by the Left, but considering the history of this government both in Foreign policy and their lack of care towards the armed forces I should not be surprised. Its hypocritical and oh so typical.
Which papers have switched from lab are now suppoting the tories like the times seem to be and which are only attacking Labour because they are disillusioned and want a new leader like the guardian seems to be? To me the only pro lab paper left is the Mirror.