YouGov polls and Guardian readers
September 25th, 2008
Why are they always the first to respond?
The “quickie” YouGov poll for this morning’s Sun has raised an interesting question from the previous thread from Nick Palmer MP. He wonders “whether YouGov is confident that the subgroup of their panel who reply to surveys within 24 hours are representative? No idea what sort of bias it might introduce, but worth a thought.”
I agree and maybe someone from the firm might respond.
What I do know is that the firm has looked at this and a couple of months ago the firm’s Peter Kellner told me that Guardian readers were invariably the first to complete their online surveys. Quite why this should be so is not quite clear but the fact that it happens poll after poll suggests that there is something about their make-up.
Whatever it should make no difference to the polling outcome. YouGov weight their samples by newspaper readership and if there too many Guardian-reading participants, as is usually the case, then their views get scaled back. Thus in today’s poll the value of each Guardian/Independent reader’s opinion was reduced to about 60% while the Sun/Star respondees had their views scaled up to about 150%.
Sounds odd - but that’s polling.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
NOTE from robert: I will be performing some system maintenance today, including updating the software and possibly the banner too. There may be intermittant downtime today, although I will do my best to minimise it.
Iain Dale uses my standard test for PC insanity by turning the gender around in Harman’s speech and, sure enough, it comes out nasty:
She’s the kind of woman your mother used to warn you about.
You know the kind of woman I’m talking about.
She’ll promise you the world. Promise to make all your dreams come true.
But if she got her wicked way with - you in the ballot box - you’d never hear from her again.”
As he says, imagine the outcry if some Tory said this, yet this is what Harman did say. Why do these Feminazis think it is right one way and not the other?
Peter Kellner told me that Guardian readers were invariably the first to complete their online surveys. Quite why this should be so is not quite clear
Could it be because most Guardian readers are teachers = box tickers?
It would be interesting to know what they rated all newspapers. I guess when the Sun comes out behind the tories they will get a boost.
I think the reason that the Guardian-readers are first to respond is largely due to demographic (people who are most likely to have, at home or work, semi-permanent internet access), and also due to the website.
The Guardian has fewer readers than all the other papers except the Indy, and yet has the most visited website. That’s partly demography, partly good design, but either way, most Guardian readers are now Guardian Online readers, whereas I doubt the same could be said of any other UK newspaper. Not the Daily Star anyway…
1. I know my post dissapeared! Anyway I was going to say how much “weighting is now done”? I recall some pollsters used to publsih both the weighted date and unweighted data (on their websites) this doesn’t seem to happen anymore! I recall that there was often quite stark differences.
It’s intersting that YouGuv’s weighting system seems so dependent on old media. Surely not everyone is reading the papers nowadays.
I did mention yesterday that there seems to be a real urgency, post conference, to get a poll out as quickly as possible. I suppose YouGuv are only responding to this, but a couple more days would seem more wise.
2. She sounds rather enticing
6 - yes because Labour-types are more likely to have home phone and say yes to doing a survey. Mean heartless tories tell them all to bugger off - Zeit ist geld.
7. I agree they must have being calling people as the last claps at the conference subsided lol!
Very good question.
If Labour MPs are so keen on ID cards, why don’t they volunteer to be the first to carry them?
12 - WTF?
Worth a read:
http://www.politico.com/arena/perm/Mickey_Edwards_89EC6432-6C1F-4A3C-863F-EF2D0F456116.html
12 Surely they will come up with a wheeze for not carrying them due to national security issues or some such, just like paying taxes / getting expenses like normal people.
I would be very interested to know how much of the sample responded before the Kelly news broke. I also would be interested to know how they tested as to whether those responded had actually seen the speech in full (let alone watched anything else from the conference).
Don’t you think YouGov should be a little more secretive with their methodology? I mean, I’m definitely going to say I’m a Sun reader next time…
5
I am a YouGov form filler.
I tend to leave them until convenient because I get lots of email and some is actually quite interesting/priority .
I suspect people who complte them at once have lots of idle time and little email.. so when they receive something interesting they fill it in…
(says I unkindly).
I would have thought teachers in term time are too busy to fill in YouGov surveys when they arrive…
17: ‘I’m definitely going to say I’m a Sun reader next time…’
Didn’t Mike try that and got himself thrown off the panel?
O dear Lordy:
http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/09/23/bailout-paulson-congress-biz-beltway-cx_jz_bw_0923bailout.html
“Why $700 billion? Why not $100 billion”, asked a journalist:
“It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”
Oh Heavens.
Public sector middle managers with plenty of time on their hands?
20
A really large bnumber because there is another Biggie in imminent danger? Or big enough to cater for every emergency.?
” The ID scheme is being rolled out to those who can’t say no first. Foreign students and foreign husbands, wives and civil partners. ”
Imagine the fuss if the first set of people forced to have an ID card were the unemployed and those on benefits?…
The argument is just as strong (if not stronger) as that of foreigners.
There is something deeply creepy about the whole plan and I predict that we’ll have a cloned card / data leak splashed across the front of the newspapers within a few days of the scheme roll out.
It’s bound to go tits-up.
19 - uh oh. I better retract that then or I’ll miss out on my next cheque!
In any case, I hardly ever get the political surveys. And they’re the ones I want. Instead I get endless Brandindex ones. Boo.
12. Mr.Palmer will I’m sure tell you he intends to be first in the queue to get hold of his card, to take advantages of the wonderful freedoms and security that it will bring him.
I’d be quick too if I got a political poll but all I seme to get these days are Brand Index ones and I’m sure that YouGov would rather not have a reply from me on these ones rather than having me randomly tick the boxes.
21
I can imagine people whose job involves waiting around for action: fire and emergency services..
Also HR departments:-)
Tsk, 20 posts and not one person has suggested that Guardian readers are workshy public sector employees with nothing better to do than fill out opinion poll surveys. Where is the Tory echo chamber when you need an obvious gratuitous insult?
28. Doesn’t the last line of post 3. largely fulfill your wishes?
re 12 Bannedhorse but MPs are not very keen to have their children’s data/finger prints logged onto the national child database. Why not? It is, as I’m sure Nick P would confirm, aboslutely secure.
Iain Dale sounds a little bit rattled. Nice to have him on the back foot for the first time in ages.
“Why are they always the first to respond?”
Cos they don’t tend to have ‘proper’ jobs?
ie. they have too much time on their hands/not enough demand is made of their time/unproductive people.
SeanT reads The Guardian!
21. Media types.
Here is a theory which will be shot down in about 2 mins,
Not all Sun readers/Guardian readers are the same!
What sort of Sun reader replies in double quick time to a party poll?
A normal one?
If you are intersted in politics and current affairs why would you buy the Sun?
Are they the sort of people who like to express an opinion but change their views on one simpistic editorial/TV report?
Do we get a subset within a subset and then by scaling up to 150%, inflate its significance even more?
Could be why YouGov quickies seem to be amplifiers.
Maybe The Guardian readers are also a certain type of Guardian reader. Its abit like the viewers phoning in on a show - a disproptioniate number will be political activists or anoraks because of the higher level of work/involvement required when compared with swearing at the telly.
1 Robert - Reflecting your & Mike’s artwork skills, I’m betting that the new PB masthead will incorporate the logos of a number of major bookies and spread-betting firms - just to remind everyone that this site isn’t just about politics, it’s about betting too.
28 Though a few posts have come close to implying that. Perhaps, however, PBC posters are conscious that the overwhelming pro-Tory bias of the daytime PBC community rather belies the notion?
At 34 I was making reference to the need to be VERY prompt in repling which also implies you may be following the news quite closely.
SeanT only reads the Guardian for the sex and violence, and perhaps the recipes!
re 19. Yes - in early 2005 I re-did all my personal details with YouGov with the intention of boosting the value of my views in the polls I took part in.
So the details were adjusted to ensure that on just about every measure that’s weighted the “profile” was in the one that YouGov were usually short of in their samples.
The effect was amazing. In the run-up to the last election I was invited to take part in almost every poll - so much so that I found I could not keep up with it.
I reckoned that my views were worth triple the norm and maybe five times the Guardian readers in the poll.
It all came to an end when I admitted all to Peter Kellner while sharing a cab a few months later. Since then I have been banned.
Danny Finkelstein has A note to Andy Coulson: Stop the drinking
“Dear Andy,
I know you are busy, but I just wanted to drop you a quick note before Conservative conference.
About drinking.
The party conference is the major political gathering of the year. Unsurprisingly, therefore, in the bars and private receptions everyone is having a whale of a time. There is plenty of free food and plenty of free drink on offer. And that’s the trouble.
Look what happened at Labour conference.
The coverage of Gordon Brown speech has been partly spoilt by the Ruth Kelly story. It was leaked to Newsnight, I am assured accidentally, and then confirmed at three in the morning. And all, in my view, because party staff have been drinking.
I couldn’t believe it. The drinking was widespread and unbelievably unprofessional.
It’s too late for them, but you have a couple of days to do something about it.”
31. Does he sound rattled? I haven’t seen anything.
39 ……probably leaving him to pay for the cab didn’t help either.
re 35. The new masthead does to try to link the political and the betting themes in quite an elegant way.
It’s been done by http://www.onlineability.net/ and I think they have done a good job.
38. 34. Been reading a fascinating history of the Sun – Stick It Up Your Punter. Highly recommended if you can get a copy. What I found bizarre was that the Sun and the Guardian were essentially partners in crime during the 1970s in getting as much sex as possible into newspapers. Both papers realised that sex sold, even though at that time there was almost no mention of sex in the UK press.
They ended up essentially competing for sexual content, although obviously the Sun was big breasted blondes in trashy lingerie and the Guardian chose frank sex tips for the middle classes.
39.
I love ‘true confessions’.
39 - LOL
Ooops - meant 42
40. “I couldn’t believe it. The drinking was widespread and unbelievably unprofessional.”
Erm have you actually every been to a Labour conference Chris? It’s one long piss up, every year.
40 - Not surprised at all. I put a 40% probability on that yesterday here:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/24/would-labour-dare-risk-a-by-election-in-geoff-hoons-seat/ (post 127)
I followed Mike’s lead with YouGov and was also banned. But I am back with a different email address and an honest profile. Just makes you wonder if there is a YouGov Manipulation Department in any of the parties.
The Irish economy has just bellyflopped into the Bog of Allen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7635426.stm
They posted 0.5% quarterly decline in GDP, after a 0.3% decline before: their recession is actually accelerating.
What does this mean, apart from a nasty hangover in Eire?
1. Britain is very likely to do the same, if not quite as dramatically.
2. The Lisbon Treaty looks ever more unratifiable by the day. Only Leopold von Sacher-Masoch would call an extremely tricky and controversial referendum - in the middle of a gruelling slowdown.
40 - I think there’s a difference between the delegates enjoying a splendid piss-up and the party staff who are being paid to be there doing the same… certainly if any of my ‘working’ staff (as opposed to those who are there as attendees rather than running the show) had got badgered at an event I was running I would be furious.
48 - That is any political conference!
I agree unprofessional drinking should be stopped. These amateurs cluttering up my locals with their diet cokes -they should be banned.
‘Gordon Brown: the disquiet rumbles on’
Shortly before Gordon Brown took the podium to deliver his crucial address to the Labour conference, a protester with a megaphone stood across the road, shouting the bookies’ odds on who would succeed him.
The man was campaigning for a better deal for pensioners, but knew the speculation over the leadership was a good way to grab the attention of delegates chatting in the Manchester sunshine.
… the most pessimistic of Mr Brown’s internal critics believe the Prime Minister has become irredeemably unpopular with voters and that Labour has already lost the next election. They argue the choice now is to stick with him and lose by 150 seats, guaranteeing an extended spell in opposition, or change leader and lose by 50 seats, allowing a chance to return to power after one term.
One seasoned conference-goer said: “When I arrived, I felt I’d come to a hospice where everyone had been told they had 18 months to live, but they were determined to be cheerful anyway.”
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Gordon-Brown-the-disquiet-rumbles.4526896.jp
There is no doubt about it: politics + betting is a very potent combination. Sometimes politicians must just hate bookmakers…
O/T - Ireland in first recession for 25 years!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7635426.stm
40. Any word on who it was that was indiscreet after a skinfull?
Didnt Guido have a theory that there were very few actual delegates at the Labour Party Conference. They were outnumbered by party employees, advisers and lobbyists(sometimes the same people)
21. I am seeing this post - do I have to do anything?
SNP conferences used to be infamously ‘wet’. In fact at one stage I heard it proposed that they be nicknamed The Second Whisky Olympics. The original ‘Whisky Olympics’ being of course The Mod. Is the Eisteddfod a ‘wet’ event? Perhaps not with all that Methodism in the veins.
21/59 Robert - I am now not seeing your post at 21 - Frank Booth is now at 21.
58 - Same as any convention - delegates are maybe 20% of the people in town.
I can understand the Finkster’s point, but let’s be perfectly clear, the only good thing about most party conferences (unless there is actually a coup replacing the leader) is the partying.
Take away the parties, and I’m not sure those pretty, shiny people would still want to work for the party that week. And it would make it a lot more difficult for journalists to get information.
The Party Workers should Drink for Political Transparency!!
51-At least point 2 is the silver lining.
Teh further referendum 2 is delayed the hugher the chance the Tories will come in and call one here. Wonder what the Eurocrats will do when UK votes NO?
Threaten with expulsion? Hope so.
58 Guido knows sweet FA about the Labour party.
There were 100s of delegates. I know, I was there, I was one of them. Standing room only in most delegate only events outside the hall. If anything there are very few Labour party staff.
60 - Eisteddfod is wet, but unofficially. Not as much as a rugby international - it’s far-too middle class to be drunken in the proper sense.
(puts on helmet and shin pads, and awaits response)
63-Apo-logies for the dodgy typing! Even worse than usual!
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
Note - Obama gained two points. Unlikely to be “McCain Moment” related. Full crosstabs to follow.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/25/72647/2983/824/609386
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7635426.stm
How long before UK follows?
re 64 so fewer than 3 per constituency then?
60 - Eisteddfod is wet, but unofficially. Not as much as a rugby international - it’s far-too middle class to be drunken in the proper sense.
(puts on helmet and shin pads, and awaits response)
MOrus I think you are right, in general within the actual eisteddfod itself no one really goes out there way to get blotted…..but young people who have been will get bladdered in the town or on the campsites lol
Crosstabs for the R2K tracker :
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/25
65. Hell of a lot of middle class types in the SNP: lawyers, doctors, accountants etc. Never stopped most of them getting the wrong side of tipsy with the rest of the party once a year. Perhaps middle class Scots have traditionally had a more relaxed attitude to public over-indulgence than middle class Welsh people?
69 Eh? A touch pedantic there I think.
64 Jonathan how do you know? Sorry but having been to Tory conferences it is easy to spot the staff and delegates - staff have their own teeth and no need of a walker - but I wondered if there was a way you could look at a room and identify Labour delegates or staff? Or are you just bull sh*tt*ng?
58: yeah, Guido, the expert on Labour conferences - lol! There was no shortage of delegates - easily verifiable by looking at the ballot results for the constituency section. Lots of NGOs and lobbyists too, though - I went to one dinner where I found myself next to a Conservative PPC whose day job is with a consultancy. He was fretting that he might win if the Politicshome poll was correct! - he had his career path mapped out and knew exactly the nearby safe seat he was going for when the sitting MP retired in 2014, and he was anxious not to squeak home in a marginal. (We affably drank to a Tory defeat by 1 vote in his seat, giving him a launchpad for when he wanted it.)
Strategic vision for fl and pa
“Strategic Vision will be releasing surveys in Florida and Pennsylvania tomorrow, but here is a sneak peek at the numbers.
In Florida, McCain leads Obama 48% to 45% with 2% for other candidates; and 5% undecided. McCain’s lead is down from 7 points last month when he led Obama 49 to 42.
In Pennsylvania, Obama leads McCain 47% to 46% with 2% for other candidates; and 5% undecided. These numbers are basically unchanged from last month when Obama held a 48 to 46 lead over McCain.”
via rcp
Rasmussen gives Obama a 2% lead in North Carolina 49/47:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
New Franklin Marshall national poll :
Mccain 47% .. Obama 45%
http://media.philly.com/documents/fmpollSept2008.pdf
……………………
76 test. Reported yesterday … Ah hem.
New Research 2000/Wi-sc TV poll for Wisconsin :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
http://www.channel3000.com/politics/17551479/detail.html
Although I suspect no-one has noticed, we are now on the new version of WordPress.
80 robert. What’s the difference oh wizard of the net ??
I like the PA numbers. Undecideds are breaking for McCain right now.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzdlMzI0NzY0ZTIwM2RiMTZlODgzOWExMjdiZDU0NTM=
Geraghty taking a look at some cross-tabs:
“The Wall Street Journal poll:
The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago. In early September, just after both parties’ conventions, half of independent voters had a positive image of Sen. Obama; now it’s just 39%. Independents were also less likely to say they could identify with his background and values than they were in early September.
And nearly half of all voters — 45% — said they think that Sen. Obama would raise taxes on middle-income people, even though he has promised not to, a sign that Sen. McCain’s attacks on taxes are working.
Same deal as the LA Times poll described below - two national polls out the same day, both by major media organizations, both showing McCain surging among independents, yet still trailing Obama by a few points. (Haven’t seen a partisan breakdown of the sample, but they’ve got to have a much larger number of Democrats, unless there’s a sudden explosion of Obamacans.) If they’re accurate (big if, but if the poll is wrong, it’s really odd to have two wrong polls making the same error), something’s got independents shifting to McCain in significant numbers, and yet at a time when most polls have McCain slipping.”
IE some big Dem oversamples out there - like the 16% Dem advantadge in the ABC poll that gave Obama a 9 point lead.
In the noise I look to Ras and Gallup for Obama’s true lead.
‘Who are the British Asians?
- There is no such thing as the “Asian community”. The label was imposed on a generation of migrants after they arrived in Britain, and holds no hint of how they see themselves
Loyalty itself has different meanings in different parts of Britain. Asians in Scotland, particularly those born in Scotland, describe themselves as Scots and tend to be more loyal to Scotland than Britain. The bulk of the Muslims in Scotland now support the SNP and back the demand for an independent Scotland. Asians in Wales also describe themselves as Welsh Asians and appear comfortable with their Welsh identity. In contrast, Asians in England tend to describe themselves as British Asians; and see Englishness as an exclusive identity that is closed to them. Their local loyalty belongs to Britain as a whole and many regard the demands of their Scottish Asian brothers and sisters across the border for an independent Scotland as treason.
The generation now in its early-twenties will bring out the best British Asians have to offer. Britain should be delighted to embrace them as truly its own.
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/09/british-asians-britain-india
80. Thanks Robert! That went smoother than I expected.
74 In the conference room, you sit together as delegates in groups according to region etc. In the events outside the hall there were plenty of delegate only events with big numbers. Groups chopped and changed over the week, so you get to see a huge cross section of the party across the country. Outside the hall there are loads of members. There were three of us from my v. small southern CLP. The Labour movement is still big and buzzing.
Anyway, Labour simply doesn’t have enough money to waste it on stuffing a hall full of staff. Guido is way off the mark. Boring, but true.
Still no Lindsay Roy?
Come out, come out wherever you are…..
74 I have many friends attending this year’s Tory conference.
All have their own teeth and none have a Zimmer frame.
Most will get drunk at some point.
83 Stuart - It is a universal truth that whenever the word ‘community’ is used it is used to wrap up a lie:
‘International community’ - a miscellaneous rag-bag of independent states acting in their own naked self-interest
‘Care in the community’ - no care at all
‘Community leader’ - Trouble-maker, wind-bag
‘Community charge’ - A hateful tax levied upon individuals
‘Community service’ - No service to the community
85 Actually thinking about it that doesn’t surprise me - there still seemed to be lots of supportive activists when the Tories were led by IDS, even some who maintained they were going to win! Thanks for the answer.
84 - easier than I thought too! I spent two hours setting backups in case anything went wrong… and then the upgrade took two minutes (’cause nothing went wrong).
Better to be safe than sorry, I guess.
The main improvement is that pb.com should be more stable and better able to deal with heavy traffic days. There may be a few more cosmetic improvements in the next few days.
88 - don’t you support former “community organizer” Barry O’Bama?
75. Nick interesting story on the Tory PPC! Did you not put him out of his misery and tell him most Tory MP’s elected to marginal seats, look for safer births later! Alternatively you could have told him of your concouring of a tory bastion and holding it for 3 further elections.
I must say this back of fag packet sketching of careers is strange! Maybe it is aspirant politicians who do it?
88 [2]Community support officer[s]…less use than one bobby.
More from Mudflats on witchcraft:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/
87 Sally so do I. I was being subtly ironic. Clearly too subtly! Having spent far too many hours in the bar myself, my liver is appreciative that I now stay away!
test
Sky News - Brown not making an impact in the States - no meetings with anyone of real note. Good stuff Gordon, strut around pretending the drivel in your speech is true.
Boulton dismisses the bounce - polls all over the place, wait until mid-October.
88. I always thought that “Gay community” was always a bit of an odd term, probably coined by heterosexual people. Do homosexual people tend to think of themselves as a member of a “community” composed of only homosexual people? I dunno, but the lives of my gay friends would suggest that most gay people participate in a wide range of different communities, just like everyone else!
Is there a “Straight community”. Nope.
On another topic:
‘Government agrees Fine Gael will head inquiry into Lisbon result’
FINE GAEL will head an Oireachtas inquiry into the Lisbon Treaty referendum result, following an agreement with the Government.
Under the plan, a subcommittee of the Oireachtas Committee on European Affairs will investigate the reasons for the No vote and report within eight weeks.
The membership of the full committee is to be increased to ensure that Sinn Féin has one representative and one of the Independents are also included.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0925/1222207743957.html
94. Watch the video from 7:12 when Sarah is prayed upon!
95 Sorry. I didn’t read it properly. I get so tired of the stereotypes fed to some lefties from the nursery, I tend to bite too quickly.
‘British-Irish meeting set to get green light’
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/politics/BritishIrish-meeting-set-to-get.4525824.jp
The DUP will actively seek unionist support for the devolution of policing and justice powers to Stormont when acceptable structures have been agreed with Sinn Féin, party leader Peter Robinson has promised.
The First Minister has also announced he has agreed to the use of “urgent procedure” to clear Executive papers which will help facilitate the presence of both him and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness at tomorrow’s meeting of the British-Irish Council (BIC) meeting in Scotland.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0925/1222207743803.html
‘North leaders edge towards talks deal’
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/breaking-news/ireland/politics/north-leaders-edge-towards-talks-deal-13982059.html
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article4824854.ece
99-Oh for heaven’s sake give it a rest.
Banks are scrambling for BofE loans
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7635524.stm
McCain taking a hit on Intrade, now around 13 points adrift :
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
102. The picture: cannot see the Labour lovees liking that given some cabinet ministers recent comments - HH springs to mind!
149 - Last thread - response
“149 - Note for readers, Mr Lawrence once more decided to use my name as a starter for conversation, this time without me even posting anything.
Why he has this weird obsession with me I do not know.
I shall, as usual, post regarding the issues and only respond to that sort of thing in kind if as above.
Please note that I also have not posted about any candidate ‘winning’, that things are ‘over’, that someone is not worthy because of their private life or whatever.
I started posting positively about Obama back earlier this year (never had much cause to do it for UK politics) but then when they started on the ‘messiah’ schtick I switched to picking up the negatives for McCain, which, in return, led to posts saying that I was merely negative about McCain.
You can’t win with these people!”
Latest Guido post beguns thusly:
“The news that Derek Draper is organising a rapid rebuttal operation to combat bloggers does not exactly have Guido quaking in fear.”
If Draper shows the rapier wit and clinical insight displayed on Newsnight recently, rightwing bloggers will almost immediately desist, having ruptured their spleens laughing at his impotence.
Surely the reason Guardian readers are fastest to respond is because their readership contains a disproportionately large number of local government workers and a great many of them wouldn’t know hard work if it bounced up and hit them on the head! Ergo they have lots of time during the working day inbetween tea breaks to go online, do online polls, book their foreign holidays(since they are the only people who can afford them now given the soaring unemployment in the private sector) and surf interesting sites like this!
Of course I am generalising and there are some hard working, highly dedicated local government workers who give great value for service but in my experience among office workers in local government, very few! I havea very different view about the wonderful road workers, home helps, dinner ladies, street cleaners, dustbin collectors etc who work very hard and get paid far too little for what they do. But few of them would read the Guardian.
Now I am going to put on my hardhat while awaiting all the righteous indignation from the PB lefties
108. Yes, Draper was relegated to calling George Osbourne Gideon in one interview: He kept on going referring to it as well.
Nick Clegg and his Neil kinnock touch has struck again after sky news report that LD’s broke privacy rules!
Nick Clegg your a very naughty boy!
The Nick clegg comment is to give the LD’s a fair crack at the subject matter whip as Mike quite rightly said only he and I are interested!
Indeed you cannot win with them, Paul.
Even Sally admits that she has no friends among the typical Tory delegates (with zimmers and no teeth), and choses her friends exclusively from the ranks of Young Conservatives (as they used to be called). This is typical Tory discrimination. Very sad. I thought Cameron had taught them to be inclusive.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/default.stm
BBC LDs broke rules with automated polls:)
110, is that over the brilliant strategy of annoying a quarter of a million voters in marginal constituencies?
107-Beware idiot alert.
102. An all-women dinner??
108. And how exactly are they going to stop them? Journo’s can be fobbed off with interviews etc, what the hell can they do to guido?
113. Yes, very funny as well Sky News was scathing about Clegg!
Mentioning the dirty 30 mistake, the fact the latest poll shows the LD’s down etc…etc!
77. NC definitely appears to have swung to a tie (at best for mccain). can say almost certainly mccain loses the election if he loses NC.
48.I was trying to be humorous, I have always been led to believe that the Conservative Conferences would not pass muster as a Temperance jamboree either.
83. Hmmm…I must be one of those who actually considers himself English!
116, I don’t know. I don’t think they do either. Leftwingers don’t really understand the freedom aspect of the internet.
121 - They do understand it they just despise it, hence the EU’s blunderbuss attempts to curtail it.
40.
Finkelstein. The useless nerd’s useless nerd. Makes Melanie Phillips seem vaguely sane and interesting.
121-How true.
On thread
Could it be that Polly Tonybee wrote something about Gordon had said enough to save himself, and Guardian readers reacted to La Toynbee’s supposed wisdom.
I thought Brown’s speech was vacuous, its not about me, and then spent the rest of the time talking about himself. YUK.
‘Lib Dems Broke Privacy Rules’
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Liberal-Democrats-Broke-Privacy-Rules-With-Automated-Phone-Calls/Article/200809415107148?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15107148_Liberal_Democrats_Broke_Privacy_Rules_With_Automated_Phone_Calls
2.
“She’s the kind of woman your mother used to warn you about.
You know the kind of woman I’m talking about.
She’ll promise you the world. Promise to make all your dreams come true.”
Iain Dale has met my local Tory parliamentary candidate!?
2 - shurely the kind of woman your father used to warn you about…?
128.
Iain never listened to his father!!
The poor Lib Dems just cannot win, can they? Whatever they do is condemned. And if other parties like the SNP do the same thing, they get away with it.
Lucky we live in a democracy.
120. Well, you are not alone Sunil! I do not understand why so much is made of English Asians being “British”, but Scottish Asians being Scots. Surely there are lots of people with Asian ancestry who consider themselves thoroughly, and proudly, English.
I remember a few years ago a YouTube video about the resentment felt by English students that they had to pay university fees while Scottish students did not. I think it was made by the English Democrats, or Campaign for an English Parliament. Anyway, the guy presenting the thing was Asian, and presumably a member of the relevant English nationalist organisation.
108.MD, Guido goes on to give PB.com a mention.
“It has long been Guido’s central proposition that unlike the Lobby and broadcast journalists in particular, Guido cannot be spun or manipulated by the promise of titbits from the party machines. Not needing access or talking heads to interview, the party machines have no sanction or lure with which to control Guido’s output. When Gordon became party leader there was a concerted effort to astro-turf the comments here, and on ConservativeHome and Politicalbetting.com with “I’m a lifelong Tory but Gordon is better than Cameron blah blah blah”. It was comically transparent that the comments were completely bogus. Guido simply pressed the delete button.”
It was hilarious last week on QT when someone in the audience started off by stating that they were a Tory supporter, but…
Or the other favourite, I am not a supporter of Gordon Brown, but…
Message to Labour activists, if you are going to slag off Cameron or praise Brown don’t bother adding that caveat first because it always sends off my BS detector.
Unconfirmed Mason Dixon/NBC Today Show Michigan poll 46/46.
102/115: whatever the format of the dinner it’s a worthwhile cause, which I didn’t know much about till I went to a fringe meeting that Oxfam did at the Labour conference. If you give birth in Britain, your risk of dying is one in 9200. If you give birth in Sierra Leone, it’s one in six - so pregnant mothers traditionally say goodbye to their family before the event, jsut in case. It’s the Millennium Development Goal at greatest risk of falling short, despite the fact that there are fairly inexpensive and well-established ways of improving the position.
130. The SNP got a slap on the wrist too.
130. HA!!
re 73 “Pedantic”. I think not. 3 per consitutency is 1950 so if there were only “hundreds” then there must be fewer, perhaps only 1. Having only 3 activists per consituency wanting to go to a conference sounds a bit pathetic to me, although never having been to one I could be mistaken, perhaps constituencies are limited.
130. No, rules apply to all parties one particular party is not above the law.
Sorry, Stuart. So you and your SNP got a slap on the wrist too. It’s just the Tories and Labour who get away with blue murder (as at the last general election).
“Guardian readers were invariably the first to complete their online surveys. Quite why this should be so is not quite clear”
It’s because they all work in local government, and therefore have nothing better to do.
135. Cuddles
It was the hypocrite Lib Dems who made such a fuss about our Sean Connery automated calls. And then a couple of years later they try the same thing themselves!! Do they think that we have the memories of amoeba or something? God, what a bunch of thickies.
Ooh. Swazzy green background now. Are you having fun Robert?
In the words of New Order, Everything’s Gone Green. Or is this a subliminal message of a political defection by the site owner?
LOL! The new look is slowly evolving. Thanks Andy!
What’s this, has PB suddenly gone all tree-hugging, beard-sporting, carbon-neutral, Guardian-reading, carrot-juice-drinking, Green??
Green . Surely not….
110. The best retort to the “Gideon” jibe is to bring up the small matter of “Nigel” now known as “Keith” Vaz. “Nigel Vaz” just doesn’t quite have that man-of-the-people ring to it, does it?
141. That’s what I was talking about. The lib dems complained about this kind of thing when the SNP do it, now they’re getting it back.
“Surely there are lots of people with Asian ancestry who consider themselves thoroughly, and proudly, English.”
If we go by the last survey I saw of Muslim Londoners, they identify with both England (86%) and Britain (84%), slightly more than the 83% and 80% for Londoners in general. Like most people in England they don’t seem to feel it’s a vital distinction to make.
http://tinyurl.com/2jphbh
re 80 robert, I’ve noticed. The headlines and links have all turned green.
Sorry - but me no likey the green. Not nice on the eyes.
147 - I would have thought it would be better to refer to the Godfather of Politics James “Gordon” Brown.
Green’s a bit strong.
No, Stuart. It ought to be a fair playing field for all.
If - as in the 2005 general election - the Tories and Labour appeared to break the rules, then it is right to make a protest (as the Lib Dems did); and refrained from doing the same.
If the Electoral Commission effectively upholds the supposed wrongdoing, by not taking action against the Tories and Labour, then it is correct, is it not?, to infer that whatever happened was OK after all, despite what the law seems to say.
Quite like the new masthead. I’d change the font though. And add some morris dancers.
Hmm.. Not sure I like the colour scheme at all… turquoise would be better than lime green [sexy on a woman, but yeeuchhy on screen..]
Latest Battleground 2008 tracker :
McCain 48% .. Obama 47%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_2-way-ballot-trender-9-24.pdf
155 - The typeface on the masthead is pleasingly retro, like a 1930s crime novel. But isn’t it a faux pas to put “winning here” on the blue rosette?
155 - The typeface on the masthead is pleasingly retro, like a 1930s crime novel. But isn’t it a faux pas to put “winning here” on the blue rosette?
155 - Yes very smart. Although isn’t that slogan (c) LibDems…?
134. I wasn’t begrudging the cause, the stats are shocking in some parts of the world. But don’t the children born to these mothers have fathers?
Green’s ok but BLUE much nicer:))
Do we have to have the Lib Dem “Winning Here” statement though? Especially as they usually aren’t…
Robert, can we not have a nice SNP-yellow rosette?
Iain Dale really is a sensitive chap, isn’t he.
163, as a slogan it’s average. Better than something like “We’re on the money.”
I think ‘winning here’ is talking about gambling winnings…
The design needs a little work. All the white bits are a bit strange. My CSS is pretty poor, however, so the new design (Andy Darley’s work) may take some time to settle down.
Anyone unhappy with the design, slogans, etc. - please email my father
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 46% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
165, are you responding to his Harman or Lib Dem post, or something else?
134. That was Clever Nick, you managed to talk about the subjects Brown is discussing with minor officials and tea ladies in New York!
Sky news just mentioned the giving birth figures! 
Interestingly I wonder whether giving money in overseas aid is a very bright thing for the PM to be involved with, when ‘hard-pressed’ families are in financial distress here? Especially when it is fianced out of government borrowing.
154. With regard to the LD’s - Wha Wha Wha
The LD’s are either guilty of double standards, complaining about the big two’s major activities or think the rules don’t apply to them.
With my typographer’s hat on, can I suggest replacing the hypen after “Britain’s most-read political blog” with an en dash?
170. Harman post. It’s the most pathetic thing I’ve ever seen from a blogger.
Sorry Robert/Mike, but that masthead is extremely amateur for such a large site.
168 - For those who aren’t aware, Robert isn’t a random poster wanting to direct hundreds of emails to his poor unsuspecting dad - Robert’s father is Our Genial Host, Mike Smithson!
Ooooooh aaaah. Nice Banner
173, hehehe. I subscribe to the view that the attack was feeble rather than outrageous. The notion that possessing breasts gives somebody the right to compare a political leader to a promiscuous villain without seeming ridiculous is nonsense.
Good for Harman, reminding men and women everywhere that only one party has the harridan vote in their pocket.
173 - why is it pathetic?
It is a well-known technique to check the use of language - plus his tone is rather tongue-in-cheek.
Not what I would call pathetic
charlie - I like the new masthead. That said, it does need to integrate better into the site as a whole.
173. You don’t read many blogs then.
If you’re so clever, why don’t you start your own blog charlie. I’m sure it would extremely well-read and highly thought-of. Or, back on planet earth…
174 - now if you want to see amateur go to labourhome - look like a monkey with a typewriter has been busy - truthfully reminds me of websites of the late 90’s - too much going on difficult to navigate.
174, it is quite simple, but I prefer that. Fancy graphics are a waste of time, I come here for the articles (makes the site sound like a porn mag:p) and posts.
Robert,
Well done for such a smooth transition - now I will just have to get used to the new WordPress….
Many thanks.
180. Stuart, I doubt you even read Dale’s blog, he doesn’t mention the love of your life, the Scottish National Party very often.
LAB HOLD GLENROTHES
(not really, but I’d LOVE to see you post on here the next day)
165 - Faux outrage is pretty offputting on all sides. I didn’t see much wrong with Harriet Harman’s attack on David Cameron except that it was neither funny nor telling. Politics is a rough business, and I can’t get too excited if Gordon Brown is accused of being detached from reality.
The line for me is drawn when the abuse has collateral damage. One of the examples I recall offending this principle was committed by Iain Dale himself:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/02/telegraph-column-boris-must-win.html
I picked him up on it at the time, as you can see from the comments. Mental illness is stigmatised enough without armchair pundits making the problem worse.
Just clicked on, has Caroline Lucas taken over!!
Blimey, everyone is trying to show-off their green credentials these days …
This might already have been posted up yesterday so apologies if I missed it and am reposting
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/2172021/the-tory-lead-is-more-solid-than-you-might-think.thtml
186 - Yeah the green is a bit sudden.
PB.com goes green!!!
185. I couldn’t care less what Harman said. Didn’t feature on the programme after Newsnight and never saw any of it on the news so it seems it was a complete irrelevance. That kind of speech is all knockabout stretching of the truth anyway. We’ll have the same from Hague just ten times funnier.
Robert/Mike - Is it possible to use a darker green for links etc? The contrast is not very good, which makes the text hard to read.
184. Au contraire charlie. When I had my own blog it got namechecked once or twice by Iain, and as far as I am aware he quite liked it. In fact I think he even bunged me in his blogroll for a while. I used to be a regular reader, and occasional poster, over there.
You really are an arrogant, ignorant prick. You clearly know very little about Iain Dale’s blog, and nothing about me.
One other improvement would be to make sure that the links opened in another window - probably been mentioned before - but would save me some clicking!
Charlie
Have you noticed that labourites are against all forms of discrimination, until they do it themselves. Then it is ok because they know best.
Harman is one of the most sexist people I have ever seen. Just because it is against men doesn’t mean it is not sexist.
I remember the same thing when I lived in Bradford - if an asian was attacked by a white (because of who he was) it was racist, the other way around just assault.
192. I agree, it’s a bit straining on the eyes. Perhaps a more snooker table colour might work better.
193 - I really think those sorts of nasty comment belongs elsewhere.
192, 196 - Can I speak up in favour of this shade? It’s pepping me up and making me much more energetic. I need all the energy that I can get.
Congratulations to Robert on an incredibly smooth transition - if only every IT consultancy only hired people with Philosophy degrees!!
195, minor Morris Dancer anecdote: for GCSE English I had to do a presentation followed by a discussion. I forgot about it until quite late on, and hurriedly did racism against whites (half my class was Asian) because I knew the discussion would run itself.
First question I got was whether or not I was racist:p
More importantly, I concur absolutely. The race card is beginning to be played in serious cases, such as the Vaz controversy and the various police chiefs. There’s a Black Police Association (or whatever it’s called) but a White Police Association would be decried as racist.
Amusingly, at university, nobody wanted to speak up in a debate (boring, complex topic) and the lecturer (feminist) picked me, the only male in the room to do it. Damned hypocrisy.
Robert - I think it looks great. Well done.
194: Links in another window would be great. I often click a link, finish reading it, then kill the window automatically, and find that IE has shut down!
Banner head I like, the green is really horrible though, why was there not a focus group?!
173. After Charlie’s disgraceful attack the other night on members of the armed forces killed in action, it is open season on him as far as I am concerned. He is just pure pond-scum.
sunil at 161: sure, wasn’t having a shot at you.
Mark at 171: i take your point, but it’s one of those issues where Labour people feel strongly enough to support it even though we know most voters will disagree: every party’s should have a few, since otherwise we’re all just chasing the last opinion poll.
The case for it is that, objectively, £100 spent on the problems of places like Sierra Leone does vastly more good than £100 spent on our own problems, even if you alow for some wastage or corruption - a dozen lives saved vs (say) a pothole filled. That doesn’t mean we should give Sierra Leone priority over ourselves, but it means they should get a look-in, even when the budget is stretched. We currently spend 0.55% of GDP on overseas aid (in 1997 it was 0.25%, down from 0.49 in 1979); Labour would like to increase it to 0.7%, in line with the UN recommendation.
197, not 173
I think this blog’s new look is excellent.
I would prefer a darker green. Maybe a nice rich forest green to keep us all calm in these piqued times.
Why have we gone green by the way?
202
From a point of view of democracy, shouldnt be have a poll on the colour?. I am sure I will get used to the green but my initial impression, to say the least, is not favourable thereof.
63. Are you sure you’re not getting confused with this green lining?
203 - come off it. He made a daft comment that we’ve all heard before, he was roundly attacked for it. What was important was that some people didn’t just abuse him but actually produced solid arguments for why he was wrong - and he admitted they were good points.
203 - There are some posters on here that I really don’t think very much of. In relation to them, I follow the motto: “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all”.
No matter how justified you may feel your attacks on Charlie to be, they sour the mood for everyone else. To adapt P G Wodehouse, try to be a ray of sunshine, rather than a Scotsman with a grievance.
207. Common theme in politics for every party going green I expect. I do like the new masthead but the conservative in me just isn’t keen on such a light green. A darker text would be a help.
200 - I did something very similar for my GCSE on the concept that feminism was in danger of harming women more than helping. I was the only male in the group for this, so you can imagine that I wasn’t treated kindly.
206 / 211 Agreed on both
- the rosettes are both political and reminders of racing/betting, the design is uncluttered and the green will soon seem familiar.
- charlie apologised and withdrew (up to a point) and we all occasionally make points badly.
210, 211
Fairy nuff.
I’m away to wash the car.
Rule 1 of blogging: Do Not Feed The Trolls. Charlie will not be getting any more morsels from my good self.
Swift transition but that nauseating green has got to go!
212 - So you disapprove of this? I believe it’s more or less the same shade…
http://www.newforestconservatives.org.uk/images/Eng_tree_full_col.jpg
According to Guido Parliament has benn evacuated
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/parliament-evacuated.html
213, it is fascinating to be a lone male around women. I had to modify my behaviour quite a bit. Great fun to see just how backstabbing and bitchy women can be, and yet they frown upon actual confrontation.
Also, I discovered women have filthier minds than men.
212. As a left-liberal I’m concerned that this border could send out the wrong message: we middle classes can become a little but too preachy about our green credentials when many parents’ chief concern is feeding their families :-0
I like the green colouring (it is a lovely shade). Very New Tory I feel…
Yeah ok enough already of the green.
185: ‘I picked him up on it at the time, as you can see from the comments. Mental illness is stigmatised enough without armchair pundits making the problem worse.’
Fair enough. Although I seem to remember that it was cuddly Ken’s lot who went around briefing that Frank Dobson was ‘clinically depressed’ in the 2000 mayoral campaign.
219. I once worked in Jigsaw, the ladieswear store, and yes I was the only bloke. It was a revelation, but not a pleasant one. I got sacked in the end, for not being a girl – gross incompetence.
New thread - Welcome to our new look
204. Thanks! So Labour have more than doubled overseas aid since 1997 as a percentage of GDP! It is interesting that the left see that as an achievement where as I see it as a waste! That’s not to say you are wrong in thinking that it is a good thing or a desirable objective.
My point is the 10p tax debacle could have been mitigated or people could have been assisted heating their houses over the winter. In many of the countries where aid is given, they don’t have cold winters like they do here! Sure overseas aid is important but not at times of financial distress at home, personally I think this is all linked to Gordon’s vote strategy - It would appear he is supping from the Labour cup of interest groups/ pressure groups!
Another vote he wants?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/damian_thompson/blog/2008/09/25/gordon_brown_tries_to_buy_the_catholic_vote
If you want links to open in a new window, you just need to get into the habit of right-clicking on them rather than left-clicking.
204. Nick, does the 0.7% figure just apply to central government aid or does it incorporate individuals’ charitable donations that go towards overseas work? If the former, then it doesn’t seem to take into account various countries’ preferences for the channel of giving.
Nice green!
Font looks a but blocky, if it can be smoothed out that would make it look better but, aside from that, thank god there are no more gurning politicians!
The site is even better. All you need now is a better class of commentator - just to leaven the lump.
Guardian readers? I think not. Literate, have pre-formed instant opinions and little useful to do (and so get on to surveys quickly), but short on irony, originality and humour. Telegraph readers? slower on surveys perhaps, but the same problems. Try recruiting from readers of Private Eye, the Economist and the Village Voice.
Did the Indy on Sunday really have a poll showing Labour 16% adrift in Glenrothes?????
Gordon Brown denied his party a competitive leadership contest to replace Tony Blair because he claimed he’d been promised the job many years ago. During his honeymoon period as Prime Minister he justified his leadership by soaring opinion poll leads. When his opinion poll lead disappeared he justified his leadership upon his ability to regain a lead over the Tories. Having broken the post-war records for most unpopular Prime Minister he has justified his leadership by the need for stability due to the “credit crunch”. It is clear, the underlying theme this man’s life is the denial of the democratic impulses our country. At heart Gordon Brown would rather play the dictator than the man who relishes and thrives upon scorching fires of democratic life!
It should be noted “having experience” means very little these days other than one is old! For the experiences to have a value it must eliminate ineptitude, incompetence and fire-fighting when doing actions. Otherwise one’s experiences are worthless. I’m sure most will conclude Gordon Brown’s experiences fall into the category of worthless!
I think Gordon Brown has earned the accolade of being the worst Prime Minister this country has misfortune to see on television.