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Could sacking Palin be McCain’s next gamble?

September 29th, 2008

Would the global financial collapse be the peg to hang it on?

As the chart below shows there’s been a dramatic change in the fortunes of John McCain over the past fortnight. From a position where he was heading towards evens his declining opinion poll ratings have meant that he’s now moved out to more than 2/1 on Betfair.

A growing concern must be the performance of his VP pick, Sarah Palin. While the world was distracted by the financial collapse last week Palin did a CBC interview which was totally awful raising serious questions over her being “one heart-beat away” from being president.

This is from an article on Politico: “..Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, a former Palin supporter, says the vice presidential nominee should step aside. Kathryn Jean Lopez, writing for the conservative National Review, says ‘that’s not a crazy suggestion and that ‘something’s gotta change’…Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, says Palin’s recent CBS appearance isn’t disqualifying but is certainly alarming. ‘You can’t continue to have interviews like that and not take on water’. ..’I have not been blown away by the interviews from her, but at the same time, I haven’t come away from them thinking she doesn’t know s—t,’ said Chris Lacivita, a GOP strategist. ‘But she ain’t Dick Cheney, nor Joe Biden and definitely not Hillary Clinton.’

So what can be done? McCain is known as gambler – just look at his actions last week over the bail-out plan and his threat at one stage to not show up at the first Presidential Debate. Could ditching Palin be his next and if so by whom?

You can get about 12/1 on Intrade on Palin being kicked off the ticket but there are few market possibilities in the UK – the only real option being the “Next Vice-President” betting exchange market from Betfair.

Before writing this piece I had a wild idea based on nothing more than hunch. What about Michael Bloomberg the Mayor of New York? He certainly would bring that vital financial and economic expertise that could publicly strengthen the ticket. I got £2 at 1000/1.

Bloomberg replacing Palin as the VP nominee could be dressed up as McCain responding rapidly to the changing economic situation. We’ll see.

BETTING UPDATE: Ladbrokes have just put up a market “Sarah Palin to be replaced as Republican Vice President pick before November 4th 2008” – odds of 16/1. That could be worth a punt.

Mike Smithson






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