Guardian reader boost for Cameron - or is it?
October 1st, 2008
What happens when you publish a voodoo poll
Every so often people come on the site with news of an online poll in one outlet or another and seek to suggest that they are representative of public opinion. Well they are not for the simple reason that those who bother to take part are self-selecting and by definition not representative of the electorate.
Also if you have several computers or are smart enough you can vote as often as you want. In short these are rubbish.
So as David Cameron prepares to take the stage for his big speech at the Birmingham conference he shouldn’t get too excited by what’s on the Guardian’s web-site at the moment.
It serves the paper right. It should not be doing this sort of thing and anyway the question is a leading one. Just read it - “David Cameron’s speech today will address the financial crisis heads on, offering the government bipartisan support. But some say Gordon Brown’s background gives him the authority and experience to handle this global problem efficiently. Who do you trust to solve the financial crisis?”
That seems designed to produce one answer - and its not the one that the early response is suggesting.
Coping with site traffic this afternoon. Since last week when the site went down after being overwhelmed during Gordon Brown’s speech we’ve taken a number of steps to boost our server capacity and hopefully we should keep going. If it does go down then I’ll be posting a link to another website where we can continue the discussion. If people could switch to that if there are problems on PB it will immediately ease pressure on our server and we should be back much quicker. Hopefully it won’t be necessary.
The emergency replacement thread is here - only to be used if PB goes down. http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/09/possible-pbcom-replacement-thread.html. There’ll be an announcement there if PB comes back.
Mike Smithson
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Vote early, vote often.
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 51%
Note - No change.
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/01
From previous thread on discussion of “nearly men” - to continue until the next Prime Minister starts speaking:
Re: 296 - James, the point for me is to consider what kind of Prime Minister they would have been, not the likelihood of otherwise of them getting there.
I think the five in my list COULD have become Prime Minbister though some more easily than others. For Healey and Clarke, the tragedy was getting to the top of their party at the moment their party became unelectable - arguably true for Jenkins too.
For Gaitskell and MacLeod untimely death intervened. Would Gaitskell have won in 1964 against Hume ? I think so. Would MacLeod have been a possible Tory leader after Heath had he lived ? I believe so though Conservatives might have a different view.
3. i think we can probably keep going until the next prime minister is old enough to go to nursery…
Have there been any ‘nearly women’ yet? Can’t think of any right now.
I’m surprised that no one has mentioned Robin Cook. Had he lived, the post-Blair Labour leadership election would have been very interesting.
I should make my views clear here: personally, I couldn’t stand him. However, I’m surprised no one else has named him.
Down to 70/30 now but even a 50/50 split in a paper like The Guardian would look bad for Brown.
2 - Jack W, as our resident expert, is it really likely that the fringe candidates in the US will garner 8%? I would have thought that is a good 5% too high, any thoughts?
Previous thread - 291 Dan
538 has a useful list of how the various pollsters have performed historically. Quinnipac rates 9th out of a field of 30 or so.
When I saw these numbers, I assumed they must have a pro-Democrat bias, but checking back it appears not - or it’s slight, at most.
These are very, very bad numbers for McCain.
Any one feeling the pinch from the credit crunch can now apply for a low cost credit card from the benevolent Labour party…
http://www.debtmanagementtoday.co.uk/newsstory?id=18796229&type=newsfeed&title=labour_party_slammed_over_18_9_credit_card
New Franklin and Marshall poll for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Obama 45%
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_590943.html
10. I imagine the ultimate default rates on those will be high.
Repost from last thread:
That clip is truly awful. In case you didn’t catch it, here’s a transcript:
“The vote in America is very disappointing. In recent times, we in Britain have taken decisive action to maintain the stability of our system. And I can say this evening that the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chancellor and I will take whatever action is necessary to ensure the continued stability of the system, to the benefit of families and businesses and their security, right across the country.”
>> Have you spoken to President Bush tonight, and do you think this rescue package can be salvaged?
“We’ve obviously sent a message to the White House about the importance that we attach to taking decisive action in America. I think it’s true to say, however, that in recent times, we in Britain have taken decisive steps to ensure the stability of our system; and I think it’s also true that I can say this evening that the Governor of the Bank of England, and the Chancellor and I are making it absolutely clear that we will do whatever is necessary to ensure the stability of our system, to the benefit of families and businesses across the country.”
>> We’ve seen the American stock market plummet – what are the implications for Britain?
“I think the stability of our system is something that we are doing everything in our power to maintain. We have taken decisive action in the last few days and weeks and that decisive action has continued over the weekend; we will continue to take whatever steps are necessary – the Governor of the Bank of England, the Chancellor and I are making it clear that we will do whatever it takes to maintain the stability of our system, and ensure that there is security for families and for businesses, right across our country.”
Extraordinary - it’s like a stuck record. In a 90 second clip we have:
Stability x 6
Decisive x 5
Governor of the Bank of England, Chancellor and I x 3
And as for “Have you spoken to Bush?”, we get “errr, I sent him a message”…
Ducks don’t come lamer than this.
10, that’s quite bizarre. I wonder who thought it up?
8 James B. Both Nader and Barr are on the ballot in around 45 states. However when it comes to the wire I expect neither to poll much more than 1% and the total third party figure to be around 3%.
Re: 2 - These polls and others posted by Jack W (when is your 106th birthday, o venerable one, and how will you be celebrating ?) look catastrophic for McCain.
Pennsylvania looks gone and both Ohio and Florida look very dodgy. I posited a 355-183 split on EVs based on a solid Obama win (54-45) some time ago but I couldn’t then see Obama getting 50% - no Democrat has since Carter (50.1%, 1976).
13 Quack Quack Brown
Re: 6 - Interesting, would Cook have challenged Brown for the leadership ?
Re: John Smith - I’ve no doubt he would have won the 1997 GE had he lived. I’m less convinced about him as Prime Minister and it’s the same problem I have with Michael Heseltine. I’m just not convinced about either of them but I can be persuaded.
10 Yes let your overindebtedness fund your favourite political party. Smile as you realise that every pound in interest goes to help re-elect those who will decide on your level of benefit.
Obviously no conflict of interest.
3. Anthony Crossland?
16. Despite being a big mad racist I’m getting quite excited about the prospect of President Obama. That sh!t is going to be so cash.
If the site goes down during Cameron’s speech please switch to here - http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/09/possible-pbcom-replacement-thread.html
I suggest you copy it.
Only use this thread if PB goes down - I am hopeful that we will keep going.
On topic - clearly irrelevant, leading and biased. I am sure we will have the draper brigade on here later crwoing about GB making a comeback - this poll shows it.
If either Farmers weekly / friends of the earth had a poll about fox hunting you wouldn;t mistake the result for popular opinion. If GB and the labour party want to know what people think then call an election, state your policies and receive your mandate.
13. Indeed. I think Brown’s performance in that interview, with his bizarre repetition of phrases, crosses the line into self-evident pathology.
There are two obvious diagnoses - obsesssive compulsive disorder, or some Autism Spoectrum Disorder like Asperger’s.
A mild form of Asperger’s is my bet. Pasted below is a complete list of Asperger’s symptoms, taken from a reputable website.
See how many of these fit Brown. It’s pretty shocking:
Difficulty interacting with others
Trouble making friends
Poor understanding of other people’s feelings
Insensitivity to social cues and facial expressions
Inappropriate social and emotional responses
Preoccupation with one’s own world
Not sharing enjoyment, interests, or achievements with others
Following repetitive routines
Single mindedness
Limited interests, usually one or two subjects
Repeating words or phrases over and over
Intense interest in a few topics
Good rote memory without understanding the information
Limited verbal skills or using words in odd ways
Difficulty imagining things or thinking abstractly
Taking things very literally
Focusing on small details and having trouble seeing the bigger picture
Ability to read without understanding the words
Problems with nonverbal communication
Poor eye contact
Few facial expressions, except for anger or unhappiness
Impaired body posturing or use of gestures
Clumsy movements
Hand flapping
Poor coordination
Inflexibility or trouble accepting change
Difficulty accepting loss or criticism
Desire to finish any tasks that are started
!!!!!!!
i see the blogs on the telegraph are now attracting instant labour promoting (or rather tory -dissing) comments, unlike last week.
the astro turfing continues…
18.I was never convinced that John Smith or Michael Heseltine would turn out to be good Prime Ministers. Hezza was too much of a maverick and showman while Smith’s intransigence would have posed a problem.
“There will be no option (for young people) to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work. Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities.”
Work spokesman Chris Grayling at the Tory Conference today?
Not exactly - that is yet another quote from Gordon Brown’s superb 1997 budget speech. What went wrong?
27 - That 1997 speech will come back to haunt him. 10 years is plenty of time to start to achieve the objectives.
Re: 16 - To develop the “dream scenario” a bit more, I took all the Kerry states and added the following:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.
I think that adds up to 355 for the Democrats and 183 for the GOP which would be the kind of result I’d expect on a 52-44 type result.
Now, I’ve seen polls for some of these but don’t recall seeing anything for Missouri, Arkansas or New Mexico. I happen to think Missouri is too long a shot for Obama but some of the others now look very winnable and there may be another GOP state I hadn’t considered.
The irony!
A persistent meme on pb.com relates to ‘Draper drones’. Then someone posts a link to a guardian poll and next time I look the poll comes out looking great for Cameron.
25. Listen to the radio 5 call in on the bbc website, the 9am show, at least one of the callers was from a rebuttal team, his argument was to slick, and his points made through a tick box mentality. I think the caller was called Chris.
29. A great analysis of the possible outcomes if the election is not close here
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/09/28/what-would-blow-outs-look-like/
31. See previous thread - 5live was hijacked this morning by the men in bad suits.
24 - “Ability to read without understanding the words”
WTF?
If you understand the words, it’s reading.
If you don’t understand the words, it’s not reading.
This special type of ‘not-reading’ requires no special “ability”, and isn’t a symptom of anything.
Other than that, the problem with symptom lists is that they are like Frank Luntz’s questions - they are designed to lead you to a ‘diagnosis’. My mother would never allow medical books in the house - you read them, and develop cast iron beliefs that you have everything except carbon monoxide poisoning and gout.
Now I live with a junior doctor, I can confirm that this is exactly what happens. The worst are the ‘psychological’ disorders books - between the two of us, we had every single one in the book, so stopped asking “which of these do I have?” and started ranking how serious each of our conditions were. And no-one outside out flat even realises we are psychotic *and* hysterical.
I appreciate the meme, but really, it’s just silly.
24. I think more autism than OCD.
He looks quite scruffy on occasion, and clealry not too
bothred by his appearance and only got his industrial scale
dental work under duress. This is not what I would expect from
OCD, given more credence yb the way he looked when he was a
student.
His obsession with irrelevant detail and inability to engage
socially points to Autism.
Leading questions and voodoo polling, but how many PB.com regulars have nipped over to vote or check the figures. Lots of hits for the Guardian site, but am I just being cynical?
o/t-What is also unhelpful & loaded against McCain is that the moderator in the Vice Pres.debate tomorrow is a rabid Democrat in the name of Gwen Ifill.So much for balanced journalism.
To be honest, if these Draper Drones are real, as opposed to the usual Labour blog suspects sensing a shift in the media narrative in their favour and getting their tales up as a result, then the thing for the Tories to do is get some Drones of their own. We could call them.. oh, how about Dale Drones?
Personally I suspect if Degsy really was behind this it would all have gone horribly and publically wrong by now - it’s been two days, after all, and this is Degsy we’re talking about.
Who is paying the Draper Drones? Does Labour have the money? There’ll be hell to pay if it turns out to be the taxpayer.
29 Stodge
You are off-beam but only a little.
Missouri and Arkansas are unlikely, but Indiana and N.Carolina are well within reach. My own back of envelope calculations suggest Obama will get up to 364 EVs. It’s hard to see him reaching beyond that, although if the polls keep trending the way they have recently, I’ll need a new envelope!
Warm regards
PtP
38. You need to listen to the 5Live 9am phone in - it went horribly wrong. Even Victoria “Chavez” Derbyshire was embarressed.
33. Yes, but who hijacked the Guardian poll?
Maybe it was the same people trying to throw you off their scent? They saw they’d been rumbled here (they’re everywhere you know), and decided it was time to muddy the waters by pretending that conservatives also do this kind of thing. (Which of course they don’t).
41 - will do!
42 - According to the last thread it was mostly Martin Day frenzedly deleting his cookie cache and voting again!
24. Are those all the symptoms listed, or just some?
16 stodge. January 15th. Cash and bankers drafts only …. well some bakers drafts !!
38 the answer is not for the Tories to get their own ‘Drone Clones’.
Look on any website and an ‘unknown’ pushing the Labour Party line can be pulled down as one of Draper’s pet prats.
Labour has poisoned its own well with this one.
45 Would you use the Bakers Draft to buy yourself a birthday Cake, Jack W?
41.She can be very bolshy with genuine members of the public who phone in on different issues. I don’t like her confrontational style of interview/debate that is more at home on the news hour with politicians etc, it can quite often freeze up the callers. Nicky Campbell used to get the tone right and was able to relax and draw the callers enabling to expand on their views.
48. Sometimes you really don’t want the callers to expand on their views too much, though - especially on certain subjects.
48.Should have been “and draw the callers out enabling them to expand on their views.” Typing too fast and not enough proof reading.
49.But it can be annoying in a really interesting debate if becomes stilted and dominated by the interviewer.
ABC/Wapo has Obama + 4 down from + 9.So not all over yet.
51.If *it* becomes stilted and dominated by the interviewer.
40 PtP CD. Missouri is very tight presently. Nate has it as McCain +0.8% and ARSE (BUTT) as Obama +0.5%. …. perhaps it’s all those McCain CD’s in St. Louis that you think boosts his numbers ?!?!
41. I listened to some of the 5Live phone in this morning but switched off as I thought I’d been patched through to a party political broadcast for Labour.
Another thing I struggle with is the Beeb’s sudden fondness for quoting polls, all of which seem to be interpreted in a positive light for Brown. Am I imagining things?
34. No, really, you’re just ignoring the facts like a twerp.
Of course, many of those symptoms could associated with lots of people who are entirely unautistic - “taking things very literally” that could just mean you are stupid, “trouble making friends” could just mean you should use mouthwash. Etc.
But there a few symptoms on that list which are very unusual and specific - and which Brown has.
I’m thinking in particular of:
Inappropriate social and emotional responses - the weird smile?
Repeating words or phrases over and over - as discussed
Intense interest in a few topics - no one disputes this
Limited verbal skills or using words in odd ways - remember him saying “my ether” to Andrew Marr when he meant “my ethos”?
Focusing on small details and having trouble seeing the bigger picture - 10p tax
Poor eye contact - recall the way he can’t look Cameron in the face at PMQs
Few facial expressions, except for anger or unhappiness -we all know the jutting jaw, the hangdog Brown face
Difficulty accepting loss or criticism - even Brown’s closest friends wouldn’t dispute this
And then there’s my favourite:
Hand flapping - do you remember the clip on Guido? This is what Gordon does. His hand actually flaps. That’s not just a funny old symptom that almost anyone has. That’s pathognomonic (go look it up).
Ergo. I do believe he has mild Asperger’s. I don’t say this to taunt or to gloat - I feel genuinely sorry for him, believe it or not. But think a man with an affliction like this should be in such a high-pressure job as prime minister - it’s not good for us, or for him.
47.
re 43. Well if this has kept Martin Day fully occupied on the Guardian site that can only be a good thing.
Re: 40 - Thank you, Peter. Yes, Missouri seems unlikely for Obama but I’m less convinced about Arkansas. I know Obama is seven points down now but if it looked like a landslide, perhaps..
I’ve seen enough NC polls to know Obama has a real chance there but to win Indiana would be huge - to my knowledge, the Democrats have won Indiana only once (1964) since WW2. Swopping MO and AK with NC and IN makes it 364-174 for Obama on my projection.
58. Harsh but fair
58 - LOL
Re: 45 Aaaaarggghhhh !!!
Frightening coincidence - that’s MY birthday as well.
Oh my God, I am Jack W. - no, hang on, I’m not
I really dislike the attempt to ascribe psychiatric disorders to public figures. Whether or not true, they add nothing to the question of whether the person is suitable.
Let’s hypothesise that Gordon Brown has Asperger’s syndrome. Does that by itself make him less fit for public office? It shouldn’t. So why speculate?
All that is intended by those putting forward the theory is to use the psychiatric condition as a term of abuse. In effect, it’s the blogger’s version of calling the Prime Minister a spacker.
If you don’t like Gordon Brown because you consider him moody, grumpy, unempathetic and deceitful, fine, say so. But don’t demean every sufferer of Asperger’s syndrome by trying to turn that condition into a term of abuse.
54 Indeed, Jack. It’s hard for me to concentrate when I think of all those CDs.
52. Apparently they have just dropped their Dem identifiers by 9 points. Why pollsters keep fiddling with their methodology is beyond me. I think the poll is effectively static although the +9 last week was clearly an outlier.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee97fede-8faa-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html
“Marginal voters back Brown’s B&B rescue”
This headline justified by the fact that 3 random people in Battersea (Bonnie Roper (a gardener), Kirstin Lowe (a singer) and Muriel Steinberg (retired)) agreed with it while 2 others (Jean White (a dog walker) and Konche Avni (a childcare assistant)) disagreed…
59 - In the primaries, Obama tended to outperform poll expectations in the south and underperform in the north. I think North Carolina could be the surprise of the night but that McCain has a better chance in New Hampshire. There was some value on Betfair at one time but less so now.
55 - i’ve noticed the same. Brown/Darling over take Cameron/Osborne in ONE poll on the economy and suddenly every BBC journalist is quoting it in their introductions as evidence that Camerons is a novice and can’t be trusted with the economy.
66 - That really is just drivel - the FT should know better.
ITV News, Tom Bradby saying the tories are not too upset because in a couple of weeks we will all be talking about recession and that is much more their territory.
Echoes of Andrew Mitchell who said the current credit crunch is “an incredibly good moment” for the tories.
Doing a bit of layman research on Asperger Syndrome, many of the symptoms do look relevant to Brown (not that I’ve ever met him).
Alastair Campbell’s ‘psychologically flawed’ description now looks like a piece of understatement.
70 - Which Tory did he name as having said this?
65 ‘Why pollsters keep fiddling with their methodology is beyond me.’
It’s understandable, but irritating, Ben. If they keep to the same methodology, we can see the trend, which is all-important. When they change, they completely screw up the comparison.
Battleground did something similar recently and produced a 4 point swing to Obama and a trap for the unwary.
Grrrr.
34.”Other than that, the problem with symptom lists is that they are like Frank Luntz’s questions - they are designed to lead you to a ‘diagnosis’.”
Morus, while not wishing to get into a debate about individuals on this issue, I think you need to research Autism a little more.
Georgia’s president comes to the UK and visits…
… The Tory Conference, Gordon obviously isn’t seen as someone to trust, just ask Guardian Readers.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2188866/georgias-pm-drops-by-the-tory-conference.thtml
63. Oh get a life. Charles Kennedy was an alcoholic. That’s a mental illness - and I should know, I was a smack addict (it’s the same psychological process of dependency).
Did this mental illness affect his job? Yes. Was it therefore a suitable topic for speculation and discussion? Yes. Does that mean the Lib Dems were right to sack him, because of that mental illness? Arguably, yes.
There is no difference between saying someone is autistic and saying someone is alcoholic, except that the former is arguably MORE serious in a leading politician. To argue that Asperger’s - which is so disabling a condition in terms of human communication - has no bearing on your abilities as a prime minister - which is ALL ABOUT about human communication - is arrant nonsense.
Moreover, if Gordon Brown was evincing serious signs of schizophrenia, should we be barred from discussing it on grounds of “taste”, or because it might the discussion might be seen as “abusive”?
Your position is idiotic.
These polls and talking head rubbish is all balls. Just makes me more determined to see Cammo win.
Also makes me wonder if the powers that be (shape shifting lizards aside) have decided that Brown is the man through which we will all be screwed over as he’s the easiest to fool & play. so we get all this positive propoganda whilst we are being shafted good and proper. I think its quite likely .
67 Noted, and agreed James.
On that basis, I put to you an interesting longshot. Texas.
There isn’t much value around any more in backing Obama, but The Lone Star State might be an exception.
55.”Another thing I struggle with is the Beeb’s sudden fondness for quoting polls, all of which seem to be interpreted in a positive light for Brown. Am I imagining things?”
No.
PS The reason for rubbish polls and speculation may be that there is not much news at the mo - speculation just filling the gap.
73. That was in yesterday’s Battleground poll in fact. It is now a plague. If they are going to do that then it is simply absurd to do trendlines – unless of course they are contending that the number of elderly people fell by 10 million in one week; or the number of Dem identifiers fell by 20 million.
From the Party Conference 2005:
‘And because the renewal of New Labour will be as profound a challenge, as rigourous a task and as great an achievement as the creation of New Labour, I will - in the next year - visit every region and nation of our country’
Verbose indeed. Sounding like a medieval monarch too. But the grassroots loved it.
76 - You have identified a series of attributes of Gordon Brown that you do not like and think make him unfit to be Prime Minister. On the basis of those attributes, you are seeking to make a psychiatric diagnosis - unqualified and without having examined the patient at first hand. On the basis of that diagnosis, you are announcing your view that he is unfit to be Prime Minister, when really all that you are saying is that you think the list of attributes that you ascribe to him make him unfit to be Prime Minister.
Charles Kennedy was a drunk. There are plenty of high functioning drunks. He wasn’t one of them, and why he went was not because he was a drunk but because he kept going AWOL under the influence of drink. I’m sure you do understand the difference, having been a smack addict, but retreating under a hail of bullets doesn’t impress me at all.
When you trouble to apply some logic, you will realise that you are demeaning yourself.
78. No chance. No way. No how. Nobama in Texas.
(am I missing a big value bet?)
56 - I fully agree - as a student I used to live with a guy like that and he would eat your food and literally not hide the fact or understand that you would have a problem with him eating the stuff you got in for tea. I feel sorry for Brown - He is clearly out of his depth.
Good to see the tories on here sliding into paranoia as their popularity diminishes.
I can assure you that there has barely been a BBC inteview, with a member of the government, which has not brought up their lousy position in the polls.
FWIW I can’t give a medical diagnosis on Brown, but I agree with Matthew Parris. The man has a complete absense of imagination. He doesn’t just seem to ‘lack’ imagination, he appears to have none. The electorate would never be comfortable with that.
Back on topic.
This poll seems more representative than The Guardian,lest we forget that there are more than 2 political parties in the UK.
MoneySaving Poll Results
Who do you trust to run the economy?
Poll Started 30 Sep 08. Who do you trust to run the economy?
We’ve just seen worldwide financial turmoil on an unprecedented level. Which of the following couples would you choose to run the economy, there’s no “no one” option as the aim is to find your top pick of those available.
Important. Forget ALL other political issues, choose if it were ONLY about the economy.
A. Gordon Brown & Alistair Darling
44% (766 votes)
B. David Cameron & George Osborne
44% (771 votes)
C. Nick Clegg & Vince Cable
12% (203 votes)
Total Votes: 1740
Gabble dear boy, you have been royally shafted by your party Leaders for a decade, I’m sure these incoherent outbursts of yours are a manifestation of cognitive dissidence but don’t worry …it will soon pass.
78 - Yes, I think there is some value in South Carolina too - I got in at 13 on Betfair. Small sums as it remains unlikely - but a better than 10% chance I think.
These are states where Obama isn’t spending, but nor is McCain as if they are in play the game’s over anyway. Georgia will get more money now as Chambliss looks in a spot of bother (and it couldn’t happen to a worse person). The Democrats might just be tempted to throw a few quid at South Carolina which isn’t totally impossible at Senate level (though tricky).
66 Quick Gordon call an election
Hi Derek
91 - no, Gordon never takes account of polls when deciding to have an election. He said so.
83. “Retreating under a hail of bullets”? lol. When did I do that? Did you fire some bullets? Could’ve fooled me. All I saw was a welter of inanities.
As for my diagnosis of Brown - I am restating my opinion that, with an informed layman’s perspective (I’ve just finished a novel about mental illness and schizophrenia, which involved two years worth of reading about cognitive disorders) - he does suffer some kind of syndrome on the “Autistic spectrum”. Not least cause he ticks almost every single symptom on the DSM list for ASD.
But don’t take my word for it. As Frank Booth notes, take Alistair Campbell’s word (who knows Brown better than you or I). The prime minister, according to his own closest colleagues in the Labour party, is “psychologically flawed”.
End of argument.
Going back to the 5Live phone in this morning, the Labour lackies on it were desperate to point out that all these nasty bankers and Cities types are all Tories, it was quite a striking theme throughout the programme from them. Victoria Derbyshire had plenty of opportunities to go into her usual aggressive mode but failed. Surely an experienced interviewer could spot the pattern?
This post by Danny Finkelstein on Comment Central highlights this favoured form of attack on the Conservatives.
Class hatred rears its head in the Guardian
“An extraordinary full page advertisement by Unite the Union on the back of the Guardian. Hilarious and extraordinary. Please take a look. Worth the cover price of the paper all by itself.
A large picture of a bow-tied man smoking a cigar is accompanied by the slogan:
CAMERON’S CRONIES CASHING IN ON THE CREDIT CRUNCH
and after some text about short sellers funding the Tories and (I kid you not) the phrase:
The Tories pop champagne corks at parties funded by city fat cats whilst working families struggle to make ends meet.
comes the pay-off in massive letters:
DAVID CAMERON: CHEESY AND SLEAZY
This retro bit of class hatred suggests where the left is going to go with tihis credit crunch. But it also poses these questions - who decided this advert was worth buying? What’s the point of it? What does it change? Why put it in the Guardian? How much did it cost?
This advert was paid for by hard pressed families, scrabbling around for money. Instead of paying for necessities they have blown their cash helping some ideologue in Unite produce a useless piece of crude propaganda.
These guys should be ashamed of themselves.”
56 - Haha! - I haven’t been called a twerp for ages! And as if I need to look up ‘pathognomonic’ especially…! I know what it means, and none of those symptoms are anything close. Not even the hand-flapping - there pretty much are no pathognomonic physical symptoms of a mental disorder.
Not saying you’re wrong, just saying doctors are bad enog at definitive diagnosis without us lay-people doing it off symptom lists.
74 - ChrisD - same point: I’m not making any point about Brown, or about Autism-spectrum disorders, just attacking the method. Overdiagnosis and hypochrondria are the only things that symptom lists are good for…
94 - It seems that you are suffering from some form of cognitive disorder, since you completely fail to address my main point - perhaps you can’t get to grips with it? But never mind, better luck next time.
O/T but as a maths buff I can’t resist.
62: Stodge, the fact that you share a birthday with someone else amongst the community of posters on this site is not a frighteneing coincidence.
Once a group has 23 memembers the chances of any two sharing the same birthday are above 50%. As the membership numbers increase so the odds lessen in linear relation.
It may be counter-intuitive, but as we are on a betting site I would wager that many members could tell you the reasons why (I certainly made money from it years ago when I was in the army).
Tinkerty-tonk
88 - It’s still rubbish no matter how many times you post it - how do we know that this wasn’t linked to conservativehome or labourhome to produce a skewed result. Wait for a proper poll because even if this is how the public thinks it doesn;t make it right. A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Lord Ronald Cohen , hedge fund supremo
Gavin Davies , ex Chairman of BBC and Labour Donor, hedge fund manager.
Darlings of the Labour Government, enobled by Brown and Blair
To name but two. Labour through and through.
95. The irony is not lost on the class warriors
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/market-action-overshadows-tory.html
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/gordon-browns-millions-from-hedge-fund.html
83. yes, considering all the (quite reasonable) points people could make to project their right wing frustrations onto Brown, the mental illness line is pretty disgusting.
102 but sadly it is true. and it effects his performance and judgment. The public need to be told about it.
99 Only if its not a 24 hr digital clock, a digital clock is only right once a day (if stopped!)
84 LOL, Ben!
Please, I was only suggesting an interesting longshot. Most longshots lose. That’s why we call them longshots! But you only have to find the occasional successful one to be quids in.
Did you know Barack Obama was 50/1 for the Presidency, once upon a time….?
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock without the safe seat!
Chris Huhne is likely to go down to a humiliating defeat as well! Clegg & Huhne are like third rate comedians, indeed they probably rank along side Cannon and Ball in the comparable stakes for their positioning to the top of their profession!
Mind you LD’s seem as bad at predicting election results in this country as in the US. I heard of a group of LD Turkey’s thinking they are going to retain most of the LD seats come the next election! Yes, right and no doubt these same MP’s will be herding Dodo birds as well in their spare time. What a joke of a party the LD’s have become - I think they need firstly to read the book on Hubris by Dr David Owen and secondly take a reality check! I was amused this evening to here that Clegg has said the Tories are Cowboys and the LD’s were the real alternative to Labour. Now let me think, I am sure I saw Clegg dressed as a Cowboy last year on an election result program - No doubt a self-important Pompous LD will have complained about that as well. I look forward to the said Pompous LD watching Nick Clegg getting in a Yellow Taxi on BBC election night, rolling a Neil Kinnock latex mask on his head and driving off to a new career!!! The BBC may even push the boat out and put a Reggie Perrin moment in at the end! I can hear the music now!
LD =
103 - ASD is not mental illness - that shows your ignorance on that matter
It is a lot more deep-rooted than that.
There is nothing to in ASD that automatically means people can’t make substantial contributions to the life of the country. However it does seem that Brown may exhibit behaviour that is indicative of ASD
He is clearly an able person - just has difficulties in certain areas.
96.Morus by dismissing symptom lists outright you are showing a lack of knowledge about Autistic disorders. I was simple trying to point out that its not the best example of the point you are trying to make that’s all.
96. Wrong. Symptoms list are extremely useful, even for a layman.
By Googling symptoms and medical websites generally, seven years ago I self diagnosed my own hypothyroidism (which the doctors had not even considered as a possibile explanation for the “malaise” I was sufferring at the time). They were skeptical even when I took my symptoms checklist to show them: I had to bully them into giving me blood tests.
Lo and behold. TSH tests and antibody follow-ups showed I was indeed hypothyroid, much to my doctor’s surprise. I’ve been on thyroxine pills ever since, thank God.
I have also self-diagnosed salivary stones, and the quinsy - using Google.
Here’s a piece I wrote about my stone experience, and the impact of the Net on our perception of medical knowledge:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/09/do0906.xml
Medicine is no longer a closed book. Thanks to Google it is now possible for intelligent amateurs to make their own discoveries and conclusions. I have discovered and concluded that Brown has Asperger’s.
You are free to differ.
Gabble’s here! Hows life in the bunker? What has our mighty wonderful leader told you to say today?
The BBC say that they don’t talk about specific individual polls. So generally you would expect them to comment on the mass of polls showing labour miles behind. You wouldn’t expect them to comment when one specific individual poll shows something in the middle of conference season. Obviously unless it shows the government in a good light.
There is probably a justified paranoia - look at the interviews of the party leaders on Andrew Marr. You’d think it was David Cameron who’d put us the proverbial creek sans paddle from his questioning. And to repeatedly ask questions to DC only to interupt him, whilst letting El Gordo rant on about decisive action for stability etc etc is a disgrace.
90 Thanks James. I’ve had a small dabble.
“Extraordinary - it’s like a stuck record. In a 90 second clip we have:”
I kid you not that my 9 year-old daughter was laughing at Brown for his stuck record performance…. ‘why does he keep saying the same thing over and over again?’ she asked.
She’s is now looking forward to seeing him on the TV at every opportunity such is the amusement factor.
That cannot be good news for Labour.
103. why, are his performance and judgement kept secret from the public?
103 - Surely the public can judge Brown’s performance from his actual performance as PM (which has been poor IMHO)? Half-witted, self-appointed pseudo-psychologists dishing out what I laughingly call their “analysis” is just pathetic.
104 I’d imagine that a digital clock that wasnt working would have no power therefore it would never show the right time.
109. that way lies real madness
102. It’s Brown’s physical health that worries me. I’m pretty sure he is at risk of a severe heart condition.
115 - Though equally, it’d never show the wrong time.
115, 118, when my digital watches break, they usually show 88:88, so are never right.
are we having a new thread for the speech or staying with this one?
102, 114. So all the close colleagues of the PM, such as Alistair Campbell and Charles Clarke, who say themselves that Brown is “psychologically flawed” - are they “disgusting”, “pathetic”, and “halfwitted”?
lol. Labour told us years ago that Gordon was a bit loopy; we’re just now realising it for ourselves.
Osborne performing well with Andrew Neill…
119 - Ah, but are they “wrong” in that 88:88 isn’t a time so how can it be the “wrong time”?
on the subject of mental illness, did anyone hear the programme on radio 4 last night on the subject of anger?
while listening to some expert proclaiming that anger is a mental illness like any other and needs to be properly understood and treated(!), i realised that there really are people out there who will not be happy until _everyone_ has been classified as suffering from some mental illness or other.
123 - come to think of it, the watch is probably trying to remind me of my heyday, so is showing me the psychologically right year.
121 - Yes, in my view. I hope this helps.
WHy doesn;’t everyone just leave Brown alone regarding any possible illness. It’s not our business really, until it prevents him doing his job totally. Just use the ‘psychologically flawed’ comment ad nauseum - alastair campbell said that.
“Finance workers to protest at ’sleazy’ Tories”
“Finance workers wearing bowler hats and pig masks will stage a demonstration outside the Conservative Party conference today protesting at donations the Tories have reportedly received from hedge fund managers.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/finance-workers-to-protest-at-sleazy-tories-947854.html
122 - Fnar.
121. they were presumably saying that his psychology might be unsuited for his job - quite a different thing
It is public office. It is decisions that affect us. It is our business. Now more than ever.
If only RodCrosby was here to comment on the inanity of the Browns Mentality / Digital watch discussions.
“lousy position in the polls”
12 points ahead is “lousy”, you loon?!
127. you would be a rubbish negative smear campaign manager.
128. We already covered this debacle earlier in the thread….any idea who Ronnie Cohen is old chap?
by the way story Trade Union doesn’t support tories is in the bears sh1tting in the woods territory
128. “finance workers” - does that mean the cleaners at B&B ?
See 101 for the other side of the coin.
With all the nationalisations being considered, more Keynsian command and control of the economy looming, money flooding out of the country and companies moving out of the country for tax reasons at a fast and rising rate, how long before exchange controls and the like return?
I believe our economy is now entering the nightmare scenario.
133 - I think Gabble meant that in reference to Labour’s position (he was saying the BBC raised polling results with Labour ministers and it was not bias to do the same to the Tories).
Not wishing to defend Gabble but in fairness you’ve misread him in this case.
128 Oh yes ‘finance workers’ are they? They are up in arms about the tories.
126. Yes, it helps to know whose posts to ignore. e.g. Yours.
127. I also think Brown may have cyclothymia, Capgras, bipolarity, Eexploding Head Syndrome -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploding_head_syndrome
- and the little-known “farmy-farm” disorder.
136. They will all be Labour hacks, as usual.
128 - Isn’t it illegal to wear a mask whilst ‘lawfully’ protesting?
141. Turkeys voting for Xmas - you couldn’t make it up.
Gabble, that line would have been extremely effective the Conservatives had been in power presiding over this disaster. As it is, I think it looks as desperate as the Tory Toff attacks with the added twist of this government trying to bite the hand that has been feeding it for the last 10 years.
And considering that Brown has behaved in exactly the manner at the Treasury, its going to backfire.
108 - No, just symptom lists in the hands of lay people, which brings us on to…
109 - Contentious, though it’s good to hear that side of it expressed well. Most of the doctors I know consider it an absolute scourge that we now have an entire society that books doctor’s appointments, having pre-diagnosed themselves on Google, and decided on their course of treatment. The fact that 99% are screaming hypochondriacs makes this less ‘the great democratisation of medicine’ and more an orgiastic shift to ill-informed paranoia about health becoming the prevailing setting.
I don’t deny there are things that doctors miss, or that exceptional people can self-diagnose, or that the deference doctors used to expect is now a little dated, but this is one of those occasions that *in general* a little knowledge really can be a dangerous thing.
Your story is fantastic, but what proportion of self-diagnosis is successful, versus the proportion that recognises any number of conditions that aren’t present? If the former is greater than negligible, we should seriously consider not training any doctors except surgeons…
Great debate subject, I’m still not decided
At lunchtime 5Live were reporting that two polls had come out that suggested Labour were ahead on ecomonic competance.
1. What’s betting these were the usual polls including non voters.
2. I thought the BBC didn’t report polls.
3. Why did the BBC Daily Politics actually commission such a poll.
QAnswers on a post card to their complaints department.
They have just quoted their poll again on the Daily Politics. I would have thought Andrew Neill would Know better.
134 - I’ve said frequently on here as soon as an election is called and Cameron and Brown are in constant contrast then people will realise how crap Brown is. Labour had the chance to replace and missed it. The tories don;t need to negative campaign. They need to run a positive campaign, as they still have a nasty tory legacy to offset. I would dearly love to have a different Libdem leader (Charles Kennedy), and Brown replaced as I think it would be good for democracy.
144. Labour are psychologically in opposition already, and indeed have been for some months now. This is just more evidence of that truth.
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 51%
Note - No change.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
BBC : Cam speech to last an hour.
New Rasmussen Poll : Obama 51% McCain 45% (Unchanged from yesterday)
140 - Actually being serious, I read that Wikipedia piece on Exploding Head Syndome, and think I might have it. Some similar symptoms to apnoeia, which I also decided I had after reading about it on a pb.com thread…
Please don’t post any more random disorders!
152. Hypochondria?
Moving away from informed discussions of Gordon Brown’s mental illness for a moment, I would appreciate it if a list of those working in the media who are rabid socialists could be compiled. From my last few day’s viewing of this fair and balanced site we have Eamonn Holmes, Kay Burley, Victoria Derbyshire, Jon Snow, Nick Robinson, the weatherman from the Today programme, H from Steps and the one standing on the left on the back row of England’s 1966 World Cup winning team. Could anyone provide more examples?
152 - If you don’t mind me saying, you posted that rather orgiastically.
145. Fair points. I should say I have also diagnosed myself, via Google, as having HIV, oral cancer, candidiasis, kidney stones, thrush, syphilis, shingles, kaposi’s sarcoma, lupus, pericarditis, and a brain tumour.
I was wrong every time. I hope….
But the fact remains, without Google I might still be walking around with undiagnosed hypothyroidism - or rather waddling around, as I’d probably be twenty stone by now, (either that or dead from suicidal depression (another thyroid symptom)).
On the whole I think all knowledge is good. Even a little bit of medical knowledge gleaned from the internet. It certainly saved me a great deal of angst and pain.
Though, yes, I can see why doctors find it annoying.
109. The point is though that with self-diagnosis you have unlimited access to the patient. Trying to diagnose someone based on comparatively small (and situationally similar) data samples is laughable.
And aside from everything else. Aspergers is not an identikit condition, it’s a whole range of varying effects from mild to strong. To say Brown has asperger’s (which is foolish in itself) and therefore must be ‘this, this, and this’ is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of it.
149- Doh, beaten to it by the mighty Jack. I’ll stop trying now! Anyway, from your link…
“Obama is now trusted more on economic issues by 51% of voters, McCain by 42%. That’s the biggest advantage either candidate has enjoyed on this issue during Election 2008 and the first time either candidate has been trusted more by a majority of voters. This comes at a time when 48% of voters say that the economy is the top issue while just 20% say that national security is the highest priority. Obama has nearly eliminated McCain’s advantage on national security issues and the Democrat is now trusted more than McCain on ten other key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.”
So if this election is the West Wing, then the financial bail out is like the Nuclear Power plant explosion, right?!
Sorry but Mrs Brown was better than these two.
when does the speech start?
158 - It’s not cannon and ball is it?
146. I wish people would stop complaining about non-voters being included.
1. Not all polls are solely about who will win the next GE. There’s nothing wrong with a poll to judge how the populace feel about their government.
2. Non-voters are also a group to watch in terms of people who previously voted but won’t next time (so should be categorised rather than excluded)
128 - Will they be protesting outside the offices of Gavin Davies, and Paul Myners as well?
Oops, sorry I forgot, they’re Labour donors and therefore ‘Good’ Hedge Funders.
128 - Exactly. They sound pretty idiotic “finance workers” to be protesting at the Tory conference. Why weren’t they protesting last week?
The Beebs coverage starts off on message..
1429: By e-mail:”Even as a life-long Conservative voter I will not listen to Cameron’s “me too politics”. I am still recovering from his nauseating speech yesterday. He sounded more like a schoolboy demanding he be allowed to join in. We need a strong leader for the Conservatives, not someone who is dazzled by the headlights.” Bob, Bolton, UK
Life Long Conservative from Bolton ? Guffaw.
Is it really quite so unreasonable to conduct polls that report what the entire population think about topical issues? I’d agree it would be better if a health warning was put on it, but to say as Mike did the other day ‘who cares’ what non-voters think is a pushing it a bit. That’s potentially 40% of the electorate whose views we’d be writing off, disproportionately young, less well-off, less well-educated, more likely to be from an ethnic minority, etc, etc. If we’re only interested in what likely voters think, we’ll start to get a very distorted view of the true centre of gravity in this country (if that hasn’t happened already).
161 - How about PR to encourage them to vote
164. Because they were in the conference hall last week
156. OK, in the interests of pb peace, I shall stop diagnosing Brown - for now. You have a fairly reasonable point.
Shall we just agree that the PM is a bit weird, a terrible communicator, he displays many symptoms you might uncharitably associate with certain mental disorders, and his closest colleagues think he is totally nuts - and leave it at that?
I went to the Guardian poll and accidentally voted for Gordon Brown, so I had to vote a few more times for Cameron.
New Pew Research Center national poll :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/456.pdf
Now they’ve found a northern bloke and, unbelievable, a scots tory.
I’ll be asleep in a minute.
Whatever happened to Brown’s promise to overturn the ban on protesting outside Parliament, anyhow?
166. What non voters think is as relevant as what the population of France think. If you don’t vote you are irrelevant.
165 - Surely with all these “life long conservatives” who we presume voted in 1997, 2001 and 2005 now desserting the party, the Tory support must be below the 1997/2001/2005 level?
160- 2:50
another one …….zzzzzzzzzzz..
166 But in order to have your view count then you have to vote. If suddenly millions of young people registered to vote then their views would be more important.
When does his f*g hag wife come out ?
174. thank god for that - no more US election threads on PB.com
174/8 What if no party represents their views accurately?
174. But not all poll questions need to be specifically designed to help the people who populate this site predict the outcome of the next election. It’s not unreasonable to want to know what people think on a topic for its own sake. For instance, we were talking about the future of the BBC yesterday - as viewers and licence fee payers, everyone has a stake in that issue whether they choose to vote or not.
181. Start your own party or emigrate.
This is barmy. Labour ahead on economic competence? How long is that going to last when 25,000 more people are becoming jobless each month. Oh yes, i forgot, its all the rich Tory Businessmen’s fault, not our poor old Labour government, nothing they could have done about the credit boom, all the wicked capitalists fault that i lost my job!
The left / government is on seriously dangerous ground with this. A bad signal is being sent to anyone that wants to do business in this country at the moment by the goverment. The tax regime is not favourable. Big firms left right and centre are uprooting where they are domiciled.
“Global financial turmoil” means basically the US and UK,& some of Europe. Policy has been wrong in these countries. Brown could have chosen to ply a different path. He didnt and we are in as bad a position as anyone with an even more inflated real estate bubble and higher personal indebtedness than the USA. The Americans are further down the line with all this than us . Imagine how bad its going to be here by the end of 2009. pretty scary.
174 - I exercise my right not to vote periodically (though I always make the effort to go to the polling booth). I don’t buy a CD if there’s nothing out there I like the sound of and I don’t see why voting should be any different.
We need to be careful we do not give too much credit to the Draper Drips.
There are plenty of u-Kippers who will tell you they used to be Tories until we allowed all these ehm, unusual, ehm, candidates.
Many of these U-Kippers constantly claim to be ex-Tory voters but they last voted that way in 1992. They voted Goldsmith in 97. I suppose in their minds they are still ex-Tories. But what minds they are.
Life-long conservative from Bolton (named ‘Bob’)?
Step forward Sir Robert Atkins.
http://www.barrowbc.gov.uk/default.aspx?page=1749#atkins
Syeda Warsi giving us a ‘Schnapps shot’ of Tory community cohesion.
“We is wid da bruvvers, rite!?”
New SUSA poll for Oklahoma :
McCain 64% .. Obama 34%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86598529-e058-48fa-94b7-9d1b692f12e8
The beeb continues its straight bat approach…
1451: Nick Robinson “I’m struggling to be honest” on finding the best lines and steers for tonight’s evening news, having just read an advanced copy of Cameron’s speech.
14.51: From the web “Cameron now is on the defensive on why his recipe for growth is the seed of the current financial mess. Because of this defensive line he has to take he cannot get his message out (if he’s got one).M. Areu, Labour blogger
179 rather unneccessary comment.
191. Sorry I was thinking of last weeks conference…
185. exactly - the truth is that none of the existing parties are attracting members or particularly igniting enthusiasm, and the attitude of “you don’t vote so you are worthless” seems guaranteed to reduce turnout at each and every election.
Frantic Labour bods spinning frantically as we speak all over the web. Its disgusting to see. Don’t worry you’ll all be out of work soon then you’ll know who to blame and it wont be the Tories.
Marc Ambinder’s views on most recent polls and why McCain has lost ground:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/on_the_other_hand_new_polls_ci.php
AntiFrank, the difference is that by voting you select someone who directly influences your life, not just what music you listen to. Like the amount you pay in tax or the ID card they want to make you carry and I could go on. You cannot really compare that to buying a CD
190 - wouldn’t it be nice if the beeb included posts which actually made some sense? Hey ho!
162.
1. Fair enough but make that clear its electorally irrelevant.
2. ????? Previous non voters are not excluded from polls if they have changed their minds and now feel like voting. Similarly if you have voted in the past but say you will not now, you will be excluded.
170.Witan
179. Whose?
Here goes!!
@ 98: be that as it may, I have never in 44 years met anyone who shared my birthday of November 12th.
If Campbell is back in Labours Inner sanctum expect some astonishing announcement in the next hour or so out of No10 to overshadow the DC speech.
That was and probably still remains his modus operandi.
Who’s the bald bloke sitting behind Dave.
173 A brown promise? WHat do you think?
No more boom and bust
No credit bubble
need i go on
202 - Would that not mean valentines day ?? Very strange..
202- Wow, my Brothers Birthday is November 11th….
204 - He’s the shadow of a monkey
204 - William Hague!
“Our response is…. responsible” - weak bit of prose. Tut. How can professionals not spot feeble locutions like that?
Memo to CCHQ: I am available for £5 a word.
203 - The drunken idiot will probably announce an invented story regarding the failure of the HBOS merger, and blame it on Dave.
196. the CDs i listen to influence my life far more than my local MP
and i get a real choice.
All sounds very flat - is it the hall?..
210 That’s normally £1.25 a letter for you SeanT. Would love to see it.
196 - My point is that sometimes they’re all equally bad. Withholding my vote is my way of showing my displeasure.
Nice bit about the soldiers though.
Good. Cameron looks out to the forces.
213 No he’s copying Obama and doing it in another venue.
Unusual start.
Good attack on the way the Govt have broken the military covenant.
Go on Draper spin your way out of that..
219 Its the big ‘business’ of Government. Currently ignored.
DC Sounds a bit weird. Still sounds 10 times less weird than Brown.
One-sided attitude towards Georgia.
Thats the gurkha vote sewn up..
Thats the gurkha vote sewn up..
In terms of content, it’s a very similar speech to Gordon so far.
He’s just lost the libertarian vote. (Both of them)
Competent, capable start. Just denounced libertarians like me, but hey I’m not a member.
So far no zinging soundbite though.
196: “… or the ID card they want to make you carry…”
No, this is quite wrong. We have been assured many times that there will be no requirement to actually carry the ID card and no police officer or other functonary will be able to demand that you produce it.
In this digital age there is no need for such antiquated measures. They just need to ask you to place one or more of your fingers on an electronic gizmo.
A few months ago it was announced (by Mr. BROWN himself if I remember correcly) that, as part of a programme to reduce the paper work of the police, trials would start by issuing them with networked hand-held computers, including a fingerprint wossname.
That none of the press have made the connection between a central register of fingerprints and the wirless world we now live in is a mystery to me. Once they have got your dabs it doesn’t matter if you choose to have an ID card or not. You renew your passport, you give your fingerprints , job done.
” DC Sounds a bit weird. ”
Sounds like a Prime Minister?
I think he’s lovely - but I am a tiny bit biased.
215. most of the population are lucky to get a choice between 2 possible MPs.
my own MP is certain to change at the next GE from one incompetent that i don’t agree with to another, because of boundary changes. my vote will be completely irrelevant.
217.”Good. Cameron looks out to the forces.2
Agreed SallyC.
Its not what you say. Its the way you say it . Straight to camera.
Far better than Gordon (which is to be expected) in delivery, but I assume he is glancing down at notes/autocue, which looks a little odd once in a while.
224. Weren’t the Lib Dems first on that? Clegg’s best question was him holding a medal and talking about Gurkhas (shame he messed up by going off on Iraq in the second q).
Nice indirect dig at Brown
Georgia on my mind!
Give Chammie a rifle and send him to Sebastapol!
Attacks on Brown are indirect.
Probably sensible for today
This is pretty much a direct answer to Gordon Brown’s speech last week. As a short term tactic that’s sound, but strategically he is dancing to another man’s tune.
Good dig at Blair there.
‘The right thing will always be right’.
He really is the reincarnation of Tony Blair. Which Middle East country has he got in mind?
DC seems to be saying “Hey, remember, Brown is a nutter, you want a nutter running the economy”
Why do politicians (all three leaders have done it) put bad jokes in their speeches, the forced laughter makes them seem even worse.
Gordon is a short term man.
239.Just like last year….
Experience is the excuse of the incumbent.
Maggie! Hooray for Maggie!
Attack on Brown was a little too veiled and oblique.
Callaghan/Thatcher point will be divisive.
Well at least he’s not a copy of Brown. That would be a nightmare.
I stand corrected, that balconies quip wasn’t bad
That’s better. Good gag. Bit of charm.
It’s a touch fatuous so far.
Apparently he is going to the right thing because it is right. Blimey! Sadly history is littered with tyrants who thought they were doing “the right thing”.
Hope he says something in a minute. Quite like his style though. The to camera stuff was a touch cheesey - a bit of a telly evangellist.
If you don’t have a change you will have Gordon forever.
Put that on a poster.
246 - That’s his riposte and he’s made his case fluently.
getting in to his stride now
Clever… praise Brown but show him as flawed at the same time.
Good one - Gordon’s best decision included his worst decision. Very good, BoE independence acknowledged and then used to twist the knife on regulation.
There will be a day of reckoning, but it will not be this day?
Almost Shakespearian; St Crispin’s day?
252 Surprise suprise your not too keen. At least it is better than doing the weong thing because it is right to help the hard working families of britain in these diffiuclt times TM gordon brown
252 Surprise suprise your not too keen. At least it is better than doing the wrong thing because it is right to help the hard working families of britain in these diffiuclt times TM gordon brown
Reference to Black Wednesday. Gotta hand that to him.
This is the speech where he sets out the case against Gordon.
He has decided he may not get airtime for a while so he needs to do it now.
Good bit about the former Gov of the BoE.
DC “I’ve studied Economics in a great University”
I think that was more a message to the Media than the Public.
257.
So where is the quote (about taking regulatory power from the Bank of England): “We opposed this at the time.”
Interesting to hear the leader of the Nu Social Democrat Conservalites endorsing Maggie - although he’s making up for it with all this regulation business now.
263 No its a message to the public.
Blair had none. Neither did Brown.
Excellent middle eight here on economics. Lucid, persuasive, simple.
258 - It’s more an echo of the scene in the third Lord of the Rings film: “The day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship. But not this day”.
264 Have you got it? that would be handy
He does still look a bit odd while glancing down. Sounds much better with just audio.
[109] - Gordon Brown’s biggest problem is that he does stupid things - such as the 10p tax debacle - and I think it is absurd to connect those errors of judgement with something like Aspergers. Plenty of Aspergers people would have been able to tell that it was a huge mistake for example.
As far as I can tell the vast majority of leading political leaders are borderline crazy in one way or another - they’d pretty much have to be to choose that line of work.
Bravo! - this is pretty damn good.
270 Gordon looks odd when he is looking up.
The Sun will like this.
259 Surprise, surpise you’re keen, but despite the sychophants here, there is a undeniably alot meaningless rhetoric in this speech. I guess it goes with the genre, but the proportion is quite high this time around.
That said he has just mentioned his budget quango. That’ll get the kids going.
272 - This is awesome.
Slightly waffly again now.
Ah. Nice joke about the missus. Bless.
The exodus of business from Labour’s Britain…..
Mentioning his wife was a little cringe-worthy.
3p cut in corporation tax
Tax cut for business! Yayvid Cameron!
Keep going you Old Etonian.
The 11/8 against your speech being more than 60 minutes is looking good.
More gags to pad it out though please
268 - Well spotted, I think you may be right.
259 - not even listening but really if you want guff look at GB’s speech for meaningless platitudes a la british jobs for british workers. Nick Clegg was OK. Will have to listen to this tonight.
282. Not a tax cut, just simplification I thought (still good)
No mention of Glasgow.
Correct pronunciation of laissez-faire. Nice.
Was the dig about actually going to bed with his wife a jibe about “Cape Cod” Gordon ?
I don’t know how much more I can take of Hague and Osborne’s ’serious men for serious times’ look (coupled with the seriously adoring gaze at the Dear Leader). Even Ken Barlow was joining in a minute ago.
I’ve been to more upbeat funerals than this. Cameron’s new rallying cry - ‘Let the rigamortis in!’
284. I think the credit should go to Politicshome, not antifrank:
http://www.politicshome.com/VirtualConferenceBlog.aspx?blog=3389&vc=Conservative_Party
Love this bit.
“No, this is quite wrong. We have been assured many times that there will be no requirement to actually carry the ID card…”
And some are naive enough to still believe Labour.
Tore apart the Labour philosophy there!
Brilliant section on the Miliband quote.
As hard hitting as i have ever heard DC
The Beeb keeps em coming..
1530: By e-mail:”Cameron’s promises can’t be kept. You can only save so much money through cutting services. Where is the rest of the money going to come from?” Paul Metcalf, Sheffield, UK
Frances so don’t take it. go and boil a haggis or something.
PS save me a good malt please to go with it.
Labour: Without the Government you are alone….
Come on Draper..where are you and your band of merry men
OMG: A ‘Political correctness gone mad’ passage - Sally C will love it.
What’s wrong with parents who want to take part in foreign exchanges having an extended CRB check?
291 - I hadn’t seen that, but I’m happy to cede credit. I thought it was pretty obvious, or maybe I’m giving my film tastes away.
298 George Osbourne said on Monday “We will not leave you alone”
They need to work out what they stand for, before they attack others.
Cut out Quangos followed immediately by set up another quango to check on what the Chancellors does.
Wintertons might not be too happy !!
303 What?
Osbornes speech the best ever in the history of the world…. really?
305 Excellent. I hope the Wintertons are catatonic.
297. If I wittered on about stupid stereotypes every time I disagreed with an English poster, my every other post would be about football hooligans, empire nostalgia and Morris Dancing.
289. I think you’re going a bit far there.
The axe is laid to the tree of public sector pensions!!
OT. William Hague keeps distracting me from the speech.
Frances glad you are annoyed.
309. Don’t forget Chas’n'Dave.
This is a very smart and solid speech. Cleverly judged, occasionally funny, sharp and clear-headed.
His worry is that it will be overshadowed by Le Crunch.
Killer blow… NHS… Labour are sunk
305 Cameron just made a high progile attack on Milliband for saying something that his own Shadow Chancellor said on Monday. Seems a bit silly to me.
Quite similar to Clegg’s with lots of ‘people’ examples to make points.
Wow. That bit was brilliant.
I don’t think mentioning the Iron Lady goes down as well in the country as it does on here / The Telegraph’s website.
I’ve lost connection!!!!!!!!
He isn’t holding back on the NHS.
bet he doesn’t shake his wife’s hand at the end though.
bet he doesn’t shake his wife’s hand at the end though.
Risky using specific cases on the NHS. He’d better be right, anyone remember Jennifer’s Ear.
The beeb get to the big issues
1540: By e-mail: “Perhaps David Cameron would be happy to send his child to stay with a total stranger in a foreign country. I wouldn’t.” TC, UK (responding to attack on need for parents to have criminal record bureau checks for school exchanges)
We are the party of the NHS…..?
319. It was great up until the ‘god we’ve got to change this’ which he didn’t pull off for me.
Sat here in tears
My mother is currently dying - her dignity ripped away by mismanagement of her care by an NHS that is broken.
I never thought a politician would address the issue so directly.
That was a powerful moment
Imagine 4 weeks of an election campaign with Cameron and Brown on the TV every night.
He is going to wipe the floor with him.
You don’t need me to tell you which is which.
what world does Boris Johnson live in?
318 Clegg copied it frm Cameron.
328-Disagree i thought he pulled it off perfectly.
People will really be able to connect with that sentiment.Can you imagine GB trying to put a bit of emotion into a speech?
332. I doubt either was the first to do it, but I thought the parallell was interesting, I expect they’ll all be at it soon.
318, 332 - I don’t think it’s exactly a new technique. But I agree it chimes with the times, where the public are distrustful of highflown theory (even the abstraction of Britishness inspires derision).
This speech is better than last year’s. And light-years ahead of Brown’s.
Tough on Crime, tough on the causes of crime?
I think the phrase he’s reaching for is…’tough on crime, tough on the cuases of crime’
332 I had my tongue slighlty in my cheek.
You ‘feel’ nearer to him than when Gordon was speaking.
What’s that about.
Camera is nearer?
Angle not side on?
corporeal Cameron has recognised the value of the ’causes of crime’ sound bite but complains that is all it was for Blair, a sound bite.
317 - But if GO said Labour are crap, and if DM said labour are crap then surely there would be a different response.
Unfair attack on Alan Johnson - I thought the tories wanted to devolve power in the NHS?
When will “our hero” speak about the war in Iraq & Afghanistan?
“I get the modern world”, by implication, Gordon doesn’t
Nice to see David Trimble
I think its beginning to descend into schmaltz!
Ah, nice to see Lord Trimble refuses to go along with the scripted facial expressions. We’re getting to the point where that’s the definition of a maverick.
339.
“I had my tongue slighlty in my cheek.”
Sally C is Gordon Brown?
He’s using that whiny, pleading voice again. Very irritating.
341. True enough, but it makes the historical parallells between Blair and Cameron (I’m a H+P student) more interesting.
333 High risk stuff this personal thing. There were bad cases under Major and even if Cameron gets in there will be under him. Sad but true.
340. I think they’ve taken trouble to get the set up correctly. No accident that Osborne and Hague are in shot over each shoulder - they are perfectly placed - ie neither is obstructed from view behind Cameron.
Alan Johnson is the only person in Labour who is reeal and who will take it on the chin like a politican. He knows the game.
Heard his quotes about Old Tory Etonians and gays?
349 Oh yes much more annoying than wobblychops
This is excellent stuff. Good passages on NHS, social policy, Labour’s economic failings. Just the right tone. It’s like he’s introducing himself to the country as a PM ready to take over whenever ready.
He has a subtletly of thought and expression, a perceptiveness and an empathy that Brown totally lacks.
351 - Somehow Tony Blair got away with the bad cases and he was as eager as anyone to point to specific examples. In the Bulger case, he did so more directly than I can recall any other politician doing so before or since. It didn’t do him any harm.
344. He did Iraq and Afghanistan at the start.
352. Challenge for you all, anyone want to take a shot at the identities of the suits behind them.
339 Sorry - Engrossed by the image on my screen.
351 - I agree. Don’t know why they bother with individual cases in NHS. There will always be mistakes.
356 Not so sure about that.
He has just called the NUT out….
DC, GO, WH: the triumvate around which power will revolve in government
334. I think it’s an import from american politics. Clinton did it a lot.
Cameron is good at emoting on problems. His problem is that he then leaves the question of what he’s going to do about it hanging, or at best rather empty.
So on health we need to care for those in dignity - but last year he promised no reforms to the NHS. So what exactly is he going to do about it. What when Doctors exercise their freedoms by screwing things up, as some undoubtedly will?
THen he says schools will be free… as long as they don’t subscribe to an educational philosophy he disagrees with. Eh?
He has just called the NUT out….
DC, GO, WH: the triumvate around which power will revolve in government
Am I the only pber having difficulty getting through?
Am I the only pber having difficulty getting through?
DOW: Down 181.75 (1.75%)
Did we breakdown again? Or was it just me getting carried away with Mr Cameron ,the man who ought to be PM if the public have sense.
are we back?
Sorry for that.
All should be well now.
I made a change to the server configuration. Which was bad. I won’t do it again.
Utterly forgettable speech by Cameron. All self-promotion and warm words for the faithful.
Reminder to self: do not play with mySQL configuration files while Cameron is making a speech…
373 - Hahaha! Thanks Robert.
I’m off out for the evening - will watch Cameron’s speech on YouTube later on, and see if your collective eulogising was warranted!
N’night/
Sowhat happened with the server Mike? Been trying to get on for ages.
375. Don’t feel too bad about it. The speech barely warranted comment, anyway.
374. Did you write that before or after breakfast, Gabble?
74. Utterly forgettable whinge from Gabble.
Nothing new then
The BBC coverage has been appalling… Allen on 5 live got one between the eyes. Gove said… “either youve been sleeping at the back of the class or you’ve been sucking lemons.”
I complained to the BBC for 5 live for having Camerons speech as the third item on the 5 live news . This was corrected later. As for the supposed floating voters all of whom gave very bad impressions of Cameron’s speech, whatever happened to impartiality??. Its a utter disgrace, the BBC should hang their heads in shame. One mustn’t forget the BBC fawning love in to Browns speech either..
355. Entirely agree. This was a speech of great maturity - which rather showed up Brown’s childish shenanigans with Sarah and his heavily marketed soundbites. Cameron comes across as the genuine article - a sincere but astute man who has all the attributes of great leadership.
Here’s an amusing American clip to welcome y’all back with:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo
Cameron is so far proving to be very much the heir to Blair. Rebranding the Tories, shifting away from some traditional hallmark promises of the party, moving towards the centre on all (esp non-traditional issues). The crime segment was tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime in all but name.
Just as Thatcher created Blair, Blair has created Cameron.
But the proof of the pudding is in the eating as they say, so we’ll see when Dave gets into number ten (given there’s not much doubt anymore on that)
Didn’t see Cameron’s speech, but am prepared to admit he was pretty good.
385 - just like Blair.
I thought it was a terrific speech. I said it needed to be, but this WAS Camerons “coming of age” speech. He is our Prime Minister in waiting, I have no doubt. When he turned the “No such thing as society” quote on its head, I realised that here was a man that had spent a long, long time thinking about and writing this speech. In some ways Cameron was dealt a poor hand this week, with the economic turmoil, but in another way its actually done him a favour, because it would have been so easy to play up to the crown, and do a fun, celebratory type speech, but what the economc crisis actually did was force Cameron to step up to the plate with a serious, mature, somber, in places intimate, in places even quite moving, thought provoking speech. Well done Cammo.
Good (not great) speech..right tone.good humour..well delivered..good soundbites.not perfect by any means..he fluffed a couple of times and it was definitely too long and I was hoping for some more detail..however it was engaging and the marked comparison to the utter crapulence of Broon is stark. I cant see how anyone in their right mind, even if they are of the left, could face another five years of McSporran…Cameron is light to Brown’s midnight black..
Despite the financial crisis Cameron and the Conservatives have had much more attention than in the previous 4 weeks and 80% of it has been good…I am definitley expecting a poll bounce from this.
For those of you who thought the Obama cum Messiah business was just a Republican creation, you might want to read this article written by an Obama worshipper, which includes the following:
“Then I began to realize I wasn’t the only one trying to buy a WWOD bracelet and spending my weekends scouring CNN.com. The rock star-type love for Obama wasn’t just because he was pretty and in the media. Others too, had seen him as a shining light, heard that mythical voice boom out over the mountaintops; people were wearing the t-shirt because they would rather wear something representing a politician than a pop star. People everywhere, young and old, were caring again. So what’s the problem here?
I’ve officially been saved, and soon, whether they like it or not, the rest of the country will be too. I will follow him, all the way to the White House, and I’ll be standing there in our nation’s capital in January 2009, when Barack Obama is inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States of America. In the name of Obama, Amen.”
http://media.www.smithsophian.com/media/storage/paper587/news/2008/09/18/Opinions/i.Will.Follow.Him.Obama.As.My.Personal.Jesus-3440311-page2.shtml
If you find yourself similarly inspired, you may wish to buy your WWOD merchandise (’What Would Obama Do?’, patterned on the popular WWJD gear) at the following site:
http://wwod.net/
Didn’t see the speech, though some of the soundbites read quite well.
Will certainly give a bounce, which will hurt Labour’s confidence that they’ve been showing in the last week.
BBC Focus group of Stafford voters not too impressed with Cammo…
gabble hated it so you can tell it was good!
PS I think we shouldnt get too upset about the media. Its obviously going to be an uphill struggle but the Conservatives will just have to lead by example.
PS I think we shouldnt get too upset about the media. Its obviously going to be an uphill struggle but the Conservatives will just have to lead by example.
******Has Cameron dealt with the “novice” jibe”?******
NEW THREAD.
393- The story is the same all around the western world. For whatever reason, the mainstream media spin like mad for the left, particularly the taxpayer-funded media. Conservatives have just come to live with it and cope with it, since there seems to be little alternative.
Shockingly, the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) just admitted to not only its left-wing bias, but also its shockingly poor judgment, as a result of a damning report from its own ombudsman. This is quite timely since I’ve mentioned in a few posts here recently how consistently and shamelessly anti-Tory the CBC has been throughout the current campaign there.
The article at the center of the controversy, among other things, described Republicans as sexual inadequates, the boyfriend of Palin’s pregnant daughter as a ratboy, and Alaska as a state full of drunks and crazy people. The CBC’s News Publisher said the following:
“Vince Carlin, the CBC ombudsman, has now issued his assessment of the Mallick column. He doesn’t fault her for riling readers by either the caustic nature of her tone or the polarizing nature of her opinion. But he objects that many of her most savage assertions lack a basis in fact. And he is certainly correct. Mallick’s column is a classic piece of political invective. It is viciously personal, grossly hyperbolic and intensely partisan. And because it is all those things, this column should not have appeared on the CBCNews.ca site.”
He went on to add:
“As a public broadcaster we have an added responsibility to provide an array of opinions and voices to complement our journalism. But we must do so carefully. And you should be able to trust us to provide you with work that’s based on solid reporting and free from the passionate excesses of partisanship. We failed you in this case… Ombudsman Carlin makes another significant observation in his response to complainants: when it does choose to print opinion, CBCNews.ca displays a very narrow range on its pages. In this, Carlin is also correct [i.e., all opinions published by the CBC are authored by leftists].”
Finally, a bit of reality from the horse’s mouth for the enlightenment of leftists who live in perpetual denial as to the existence of the left-wing mainstream media.
The Gwen Ifill travesty brings this topic home to America. Even though the woman wrote a book (heretofore undisclosed) praising Obama and what she describes as the “Obama generation, [which] is just beginning its run,” she will be moderating the VP debate tomorrow. To top it all off, she is timing the release of her book to coincide exactly with inauguration day, January 20, 2009, no doubt in the hope that her book sales will be boosted by the excitement of the inauguration of the man at the center of her book.
I have long predicted here that Obama will win nationally by about six points over McCain in the two-party vote. The media complicity in his campaign’s efforts is one of the biggest reasons he will win, as I have explained here before. But rarely am I blessed by events with so many examples of how the media works, in America and elsewhere in the West, to illustrate the narrative.