Has Cameron dealt with the “novice” jibe”?
October 1st, 2008
Will experience triumph over calls for change?
Given the lead-up to this afternoon’s speech - the partial recovery of Labour in the polls and the global financial crisis - Cameron had one overwhelming objective: to look and sound like the prime minister in waiting. This was all about setting the tone and style right.
For unlike almost any other event during the political year the party leader’s main conference speech is the one that gets extra special treatment by the broadcasters - whatever else is on the news agenda. This is a unique opportunity and can have reverberations that can go on for years.
Against a background when Cameron’s experience was on the line he had to have response to the damaging novice jibe by Gordon Brown a week ago. I thought his line played well but we’ll see in the polls later in the month whether he has succeeded.
Cameron is at his strongest when he gets angry and his attack on the bureaucracy of the NHS seem to chime with the audience and my guess will resonate more widely.
But there were weak points. I felt that the way he brought his wife Samantha into the speech was just naff - “the entrepreneur he goes to bed with every night”. From the TV coverage it appeared to bomb.
So where are we? My guess is that there will be a conference poll bounce for the Tories just like the Lib Dems and Labour had. Simply getting the coverage is enough to swing one segment of those who are polled - a factor that the experienced political commentators turned amateur polling analysts simply do not comprehend.
The question is how big will it be and how long will it be sustained and we have to wait before we can make that judgement.
Before the speech I was a buyer of Tory seats on the spread markets and a seller of Labour. Nothing has happened to change that.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No
A weak and empty speech confirming his lightweight status.
It’s turkey time! Gabble gabble!
The next PM gave a great speech and I think captured the mood well. The rest is just noise.
lol, Gabble, do you know which other poster famously posted “No” as post #1 answering a Smithson question? A “No” that is now trading at 1.38 on betfair!
Also, to welcome y’all back, this is quite amusing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo
I thought one of the most significant moments of the speech was his willingness to use the phrase ‘You’re fired!’ about public sector workers. He no longer seems afraid of the Labour ‘Tory cuts’ attack.
6. Not very prime ministerial, picking on individual civil servants.
re-post
The BBC coverage has been appalling… Allen on 5 live got one between the eyes. Gove said… “either youve been sleeping at the back of the class or you’ve been sucking lemons.”
I complained to the BBC for 5 live for having Camerons speech as the third item on the 5 live news . This was corrected later. As for the supposed floating voters all of whom gave very bad impressions of Cameron’s speech, whatever happened to impartiality??. Its a utter disgrace, the BBC should hang their heads in shame. One mustn’t forget the BBC fawning love in to Browns speech either..
by Maggie Thatcher Fan October 1st, 2008 at 5:54 pm
I thought it was a terrific speech. I said it needed to be, but this WAS Camerons “coming of age” speech. He is our Prime Minister in waiting, I have no doubt. When he turned the “No such thing as society” quote on its head, I realised that here was a man that had spent a long, long time thinking about and writing this speech. In some ways Cameron was dealt a poor hand this week, with the economic turmoil, but in another way its actually done him a favour, because it would have been so easy to play up to the crown, and do a fun, celebratory type speech, but what the economc crisis actually did was force Cameron to step up to the plate with a serious, mature, somber, in places intimate, in places even quite moving, thought provoking speech. Well done Cammo.
6. Not very prime ministerial, picking on individual civil servants.
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100108.htm
Didn’t see Cameron’s speech, but am prepared to admit he was pretty good.
Just like Blair.
Good analysis here from someone I wouldn’t necessarily expect…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_warner/blog/2008/10/01/david_camerons_finest_hour_so_far__a_return_to_tory_philosophy
Hello all,
Just a quick comment: many thanks for everyone who utilised my blog to continue discussion while this place was suffering difficulties.
Please feel free to save the URL (http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/09/possible-pbcom-replacement-thread.html) for any future occasions when this might be necessary.
Humbly yours,
J
Looks like the big words he wants us to take away are Government, people, responsibility and believe. Pretty pictures on the word analysis over on Scottish Sketch.
1. lol.
This speech was just aeons better than Gordon’s lumbering, tedious, effortful stress-a-thon. But we always knew Cammo was miles better at oratory than Brown, so what does that mean?
That’s tricky.
I think Cammo will have impressed most of the pundits. The Indy is one lefty paper that liked it:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/independent/2008/10/today-in-politi.html
Others will follow.
However, the fact remains Labour have clawed back some ground from the Tories in the last three weeks - not a huge amount, but definitely a few points.
This Labour gain will probably disappear in time, when it becomes apparent there is nothing Autistic Spectrum Disorder Man (Allegedly) can do nothing about the recession - apart from his stick his lower lip out a bit.
9 - ok, so he may be prime ministerial. But which Tory front-benchers will be replaced before the GE?
The speech was awful, completely atrocious.
(Disclaimer: I haven’t watched it yet and have no clue about the content)
Latest Gallup tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 48%
Note - Yesterday M-43/O-49
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
8 - I did n’t hear this but it sounds typical. I think it’s time for a revolt of the licence payers.
18 - LOL
its turkey time, love the comment lol
Good (not great) speech..right tone.good humour..well delivered..good soundbites.not perfect by any means..he fluffed a couple of times and it was definitely too long and I was hoping for some more detail..however it was engaging and the marked comparison to the utter crapulence of Broon is stark. I cant see how anyone in their right mind, even if they are of the left, could face another five years of McSporran…Cameron is light to Brown’s midnight black..
Despite the financial crisis Cameron and the Conservatives have had much more attention than in the previous 4 weeks and 80% of it has been good…I am definitley expecting a poll bounce from this.
How about a PB.Com competition for anyone who stayed awake for the whole speech?
Nick Assinger said he had nothing to say but took forever to say it
Birmingham. The Windy City!
New GQR/Democracy Corp national poll :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 1% .. Nader 2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor093008fq12_pb.pdf
OT. Hope it hasn’t been posted somewhere (I lost track of possible external threads)
Apart from the Quinnipac polls, more bad news for McCain.
Time has Obama ahead 50% to 43%. He is the first Democratic candidate since before Reagan to break the 50% barrier. McCain’s support is softer, Obama is found to have won the debate 23% to 16% McCain.
ABC News/Washington Post have Bush’s performance rating at the lowest value ever measured: 26%. Here’s the kicker, 53% think McCain would lead the country in the same direction as Bush.
I was extremely cautious about Obama’s situation yesterday. I’m still far from saying this is over. What I do think is that there might be a shift in the polls now. The McCain campaign should be very worried. I’m sure they will wait for the Palin debate and the bailout vote to be over before taking any action, but unless Palin provides a game changer all by herself, I would be surprised if the campaign didn’t throw everything they have onto the front lines. With a momentum developing from an already very comfortable position for Obama and early voting under way, they simply have no other choice.
Also why is there no mention in the BBC’s online coverage of what was surely the most significant policy announcement in the speech – a 3% reduction in corporation tax?
It is interesting that there were a few Obama like lines, “The risk is not in making a change. The risk is sticking with what you’ve got and expecting a different result.” It sounds very similar to some Obama lines.
17 - The only Tory frontbenchers I’d say are totally safe are Hague, Gove and Osborne. The Tory frontbench is a little more talented than the Labour front bench, but it doesn’t instil me with enormous confidence.
As for the speech, I thought it was technically good and tactically strong. He delivered his speech as he always does with conviction and real believability. He argued with force that experience had got us into the present circumstances. He will look good on tv tonight.
However, I am unsure about the strategy of allowing himself to be cast as the novice challenger. This is the terrain on which Gordon Brown is choosing to fight. There are traps ahead here.
Another lefty believes the speech was pretty good:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/01/davidcameron.conservatives
Sorry Gabble. Even your side admit it was effective, in which case it was probably VERY effective.
We shall see.
24
Just read Assinder’s piece, as usual Roger you are talking nonsense.
It will be interesting to see how the speech and Cameron are reported in the Daily Mail tomorrow. The editoral this morning was scathing against Cameron’s Tories and they seem to be more and more endorsing Brown’s Labour (I wonder how this goes down with their readership?)
I’d give Cameron a 7 or an 8 out of 10. He couldn’t have done a lot better under the circumstances.
A few mistakes. Championing Thatcher wasn’t necessary. ‘Thank god we chose her’. Talking about the woman he goes to bed with (maybe I’m just out of touch but I found that cringe-worthy). And directly telling us that he’s going to fire a public servant?
BTW You’re fired is 3 words.
New Abt/SRB1/Time Magazine national poll :
McCain 43% .. Obama 50%
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1846065,00.html
Having read some of the ecstatic comments on here about the speech, I was surprised to hear a number of people interviewed on PM on Radio 4 talking about a lumbering, wooden performance. But then I remembered the left wing bias of the beeb and will never again doubt the veracity of PB’s neutral commentators.
24. You really shouldnt spin a piece that people can then read for themselves..also when you talk of boring you immediately draw attention to the utter tedium of Brown..other than that a pretty poor effort …at least Gabble’s nonsense is amusing..even if you are laughing at him reather than with him..
Reposted from last thread:
Didn’t see the speech, though some of the soundbites read quite well.
Will certainly give a bounce, which will hurt Labour’s confidence that they’ve been showing in the last week.
32 - sounds like Brown threatening Dacre to dance to his tune or forget the peerage. Could ruin the paper
This is the sort of waste Cameron was talking about. Absolutely disgraceful wast of money.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/7646774.stm
BBC News: Not going down well with the voters. Not told them very much.
It wasn’t as amazingly impressive as last year but then we’re not surprised when he sounds better than the Prime Minister any more.
Thanks for the insight, Gabble. At least Roger occasionally says something
29 - you have to admit that the current Tory party is probably a lot smaller that the next one will be. There will be some elected in 2010 who could go straight into a Cabinet / Shadow Cabinet job. And some there at the moment will get the chop.
Do you remember when IDS had Ann Winterton and Bill Cash? Hahahahahaha!
Oh, and bigging up Thatcher may play well with his audience in Birmingham plus the paid up fan club members on here but there are one or two out in the real world who are not swooning.
37 - I’m wondering how long the overwhelmingly Tory Mail readers will keep putting up with this bizarre editorial line.
35. lol!
Re: US election. Although I have been massively sceptical of Obama’s chances, the Quinnipac polls and the fact that Obama is 9 points ahead of where John Kerry was at the same point last time. Has made me a bit more confident. It’s Obama’s to lose and I can’t help but feel it’s all about GOTV now.
42. So why does Brown keep inviting her to Number 10 then? How does that go down with HIS voters? Mm?
What are with all these comments…I have always voted socilaist parties and family has always done so. Cameron’s speech was rousing and his personal experiences capped it off. Yes it may not have been full of nitty gritty stats like Brown but those meaningless values spewed by Brown are what turn voters off. Brown is a lame duck…he needs to be changed but there is no one left so its the end for this regime. Brown has truly been inept. My family used to think he was a great chancellor till he sold all that gold off. Since my perception of him has gone rapidly down hill. I am not naive…most politicians are the same but Cameron feels like a human telling those personal experiences about NHS deaths with compassion. That much can not be said for the increasingly totalitarian Brown and partys endless laws and top-down policies.
O/T. I was disappointed to discover that the BBC’s lead story ‘Police to act on Campbell taunts’ didn’t refer to Alistair’s excesses…
43. Dacre does what he wants. Until Cameron starts playing ball, things won’t change.
43. David Roe: “I’m wondering how long the overwhelmingly Tory Mail readers will keep putting up with this bizarre editorial line.”
For as long as Cameron’s soft left fakery replaces any true tory values.
39. BBC News: Not going down well with the voters. Not told them very much.
So that’s what they think of BBC news; now can you tell us about the speech?
49 But Gsabble, Dacre is Brown’s mate, that doesnt sit well with your comment…
New My Space/NBC/WSJ poll of newly registered and no show voters from 2004 shows Obama 61% .. McCain 30% :
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081001_NBC_WSJ_MySpace_Poll.pdf
39. The BBC are terribly pro new labour…its sickens me that they are becoming a biased organisation…I stopped watching them after than severe pro israeli slant to the lebanon conflict while lebanese childrens bodies were ripped apart by careless bombing.
Edeyrnion = Astroturfer
43. Dacre does what he wants…. as long as he keeps the Mail’s readership growing (or at least not falling). He is NOT the boss. The Rothermeres are in charge of Associated Newspapers, and I’m pretty damn sure they are Tory (check the slant of all their other papers).
I imagine the Rothermeres are looking at Dacre’s schizophrenic editorial line with a fairly jaundiced eye, but will go along with it… as long as the paper thrives.
That may be for some time yet coz Dacre is a very skilful editor. But nothing is for ever.
11, 19: Given that the trackers levelled off yesterday and show a slight improvement for McCain today, and today’s five national non-trackers seems to confirm that he is 4-5% behind (WaPo -4, Dem Corps -4, Pew -6, Time -7, Economist -3) the very bad Quinnipiac OH, PA and FL results for McCain seems like outliers.
Still, he need the rescue package resolved and a decent performance by Palin tomorrow to get on the offensive again. I still believe that a 4-5% deficit is difficult but possible to make up, but not much more than that.
51. MTF: “But Gabble, Dacre is Brown’s mate, that doesnt sit well with your comment…”
Some people prefer substance over style.
Not a fan of David Cameron but very impressed with this part of it.
“Come with me to Wandsworth prison and meet the inmates. Yes you meet the mugger, the robber and the burglar. But you also meet the boy who can’t read and never could. The teenager hooked on heroin.The young man who never knew the love of a father. The middle aged failure where no-one in the family has known what it’s like to go out and work for two generations or maybe more.Miss the context, miss the cause, miss the background and you’ll never get the true picture of why crime is so high in our country
Struck a chord with me as I visited and supported Jonathan Aitken during his incarcaration,although I would rate Belmarsh as a harder regime than Wandsworth.
If he sticks to the above line he may very well woo a lot of”undecideds”.
Nice one D.C.
“Edeyrnion = Astroturfer
by Gabble October 1st, 2008 at 6:22 pm”
I hope the archivists at the British Library have recorded that gem.
48 - does anybody read what Dacre thinks? I think most Mail readers read the trash about celebs, problems and TV features, and ignore the politics. They probably are not even aware of Dacre point of view.
57 - You clearly prefer substances!
I expect most Mail readers don’t actually mind Cameron, and will happily accept that he may be a tad wet for them providing he helps them get shot of Labour.
Which makes Dacre’s approach even more suicidal.
Evening all
Re: 38 - Further education colleges have been outside local authority control for some time. It’s NOT an example of local or even central Government waste - it’s much closer to an example of quango waste.
In my experience, giving money directly to schools is far more wasteful than giving it to the local authority. When grant maintained schools came back under LEA control it was discovered in many authorities that the ex-GM schools were in a much worse state of repair than the LEA schools. The schools had spent virtually nothing on the fabric of the buildings and had spent everything on teachers and educational materials including field trips.
Gabble wtf!? Astro turfer. I am an east Walian who votes Plaid Cymru my family were labour voting coal miners so don’t insult with your deluded statements…i’m not going to vote tory but I think they look far better than this vile fakery of labour. At least Old labour had values and PRINCIPLES!
“Some people prefer substance over style.”
By being chummy with Brown, obviously Dacre isn’t one of them
52. That’s not for real is it?
58. That’s quite good. I like that. Don’t believe a word of it. But I like it.
60. I think the Mail’s political coverage is designed to leave the typical Brown-hating reader with steam coming out of their ears. You warm them up with some fawning hagiography about Brown, like a parody of Polly Toynbee from a couple of years ago, and then when they can’t take any more you hit them with a Littlejohn column which puts into words all of their anger. I’m sure ready the Mail is bad for their health.
67. *reading* the Mail
Some good passages, well-written and well delivered. He’s a much better speaker than Brown. But some sections were slow and turgid, and the joke about his wife seemed a tad laboured.
His main aim was to tackle the novice jibe. He seems to have countered that. People are considering moving over but many will wait until they really know what Cameron would do. We are still none the wiser.
67. Spot on. ‘Give ‘em something to hate’
67
“Reading the Mail” is tautology, surely?
Is it true that the word most used in Cameron’s speech was “ME”? Knowing Cameron as we do I imagine they stopped taking bets on that weeks ago..
40. Thanks for that vote of confidence!
No wonder my family isn’t going to vote labour anymore with arrogant comments from labour stalwarts. You have turned off voters like the troies did with their arrogance in the late 80s
A good speech, subtle early on, attacking in places. Rebutted the novice jibe, but perhaps lacking a punch line to match “no time for a novice”. (I dont think much of the “change” lines, but then I find Obama’s Bob the builder lines irritating). Will enthuse the base, strengthen Cameron’s standing amongst undecideds. Hit some of the caring compassionate conservatism/social justice points, while staying close to conservative core values.
Far better than Brown in presentation and in policy terms. Both pretty good, but perhaps no better than one would have expected before hand.
Brown managed to enthuse the left and placated the Pollys of the world. It wasnt a winning speech, just enough to keep him in office. Undecided voters wont have been enthused, Cameron a winner here I think.
Labour should maintain a few points from its conference bounce because they represent the lefties who have returned. Tories to be ahead by 16-18% at the end of the conference season, but not quite at the levels seen pre-conference.
58. You outline a particularly sick-making and dishonest passage in his speech.
By any measure, crime has fallen over the last 11 years.
Anybody who lived through the soaraway crime wave of the 80’s will feel a bit queasy listening to those words falling from the mouth of a tory leader.
69 - Cameron’s big challenge until the election is to keep fresh in the public’s mind.
Like Obama, his “newness” is what’s selling ATM. OK, we have a little bit of an idea where he’s coming from, but there’s still much to find out.
That’s why I don’t believe we’re going to see a blast of policy after this from him/them. Especially as Brown’s troubles from a couple of weeks ago haven’t exactly gone away. Just throw a bit here and there to keep the party faithful enthused and the general public reminded.
Remember, there’s still over 18 months to go until we really need to find out what we need to know about him.
57 which is why its bizarre that Dacre goes anywhere near Brown.
Can I have a Gabble filter please?
Cameron NOT the top story on ITV News.
There’s no enthusiasm for these fake tories.
Yeah maybe crime has gone down cos there are so many petty new ones
that they instantly cracked down on. The more serious ones like the lack of rape prosecutions is terrible
78 - or a link to the Labour Rebuttal Checklist he’s quoting from
79 - There is certainly no enthusiasm for fake posters!
75 er no it hasnt, only the Govts figures of “recorded” crime have. it depends what is recoredd. Lots of stuff isn’t recorded now IIRC
Looks like the Irish have declared economic war on the UK…
54. ‘Astroturfer’-is a word reserved silly people who can’t argue their case. Don’t lower yourself Gabble
The verdict is still out on Cameron. I remain a ‘hung parliament’ man.
If you were saying this in 97 I would probably happily agree Gabble but its 11 years too late..
82. James Burdett: “There is certainly no enthusiasm for fake posters!”
Are you listening, Edeyrnion?
o/t The fact flintshire a mainly industrial part of wales switched so massively from labout to tories tells you voters are turned off by new labour
83. MTF: “er no it hasnt, only the Govts figures of “recorded” crime have. it depends what is recoredd. Lots of stuff isn’t recorded now IIRC”
er, yes it has as The British Crime Survey will attest.
79 Isn’t Michael Grade now in charge of ITV and didn’t I see him at the Labour Party conference.
85. I’d be interested to see how Gabble could possibly “lower” himself. That presumes there is a deeper level of ridiculousness and fatuity which he has yet to explore.
The mind boggles.
75.
Sadly I beg to differ.
Many inmates are released with no hope of employment,no basic numeracy or literacy and on their own once they are discharged.
This causes the “revolving door” syndrome and the released inmates then go on to re-offend.
I do not feel queasy and it is just a matter of time before NuLabour hijack this policy
85. I took the term “Astroturfer” to be someone who is pretending to be something they are not. I think post #46 looked pretty suspicious.
If it’s genuine, I take it back.
90
I dont trust ANY govt figures. Its just like Brown telling us inflation was 2% when it patently wasn’t, or that he hadn’t broken his golden rule when he rejigged the starting point. Anything this Govt says is to be treated with the utmost scepticism.
92 - New Labour, New Shovels, New Shovels, New holes.
92 - In that way he resembles his beloved Prime Minister, as Andy Cooke noted at post 42 on the following thread:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/06/29/when-did-you-become-a-brown-doubter/
“Just when you think that he’s hit the floor, he skilfully finds another trapdoor. It’s fairly impressive, in a macabre kind of way. Like watching a slow speed train crash - you just can’t look away.”
90 its only because its not being recorded, dont record the crime and it hasnt officially happened.
75. Gabble, by any measure there was no year pre 1997 when 27 children had been stabbed to death on the streets of London before September was out.
Cameron got a roasting on the Radio4 PM panel. Seems to re-enforce the notion that this speech was content lite. Hugely flattering to Brown that the whole speech was designed to answer one line in Gordon’s speech. Not sure he’s succeeded either.
BTW Sorry the site was down earlier. It was funny it went down when Cameron talked about spelling. Clearly the Tories went nuts at that point.
In response to 393 from previous thread- The story is the same all around the western world. For whatever reason, the mainstream media spin like mad for the left, particularly the taxpayer-funded media. Conservatives have just come to live with it and cope with it, since there seems to be little alternative.
Shockingly, the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) just admitted to not only its left-wing bias, but also its shockingly poor judgment, as a result of a damning report from its own ombudsman. This is quite timely since I’ve mentioned in a few posts here recently how consistently and shamelessly anti-Tory the CBC has been throughout the current campaign there.
The article at the center of the controversy, among other things, described Republicans as sexual inadequates, the boyfriend of Palin’s pregnant daughter as a ratboy, and Alaska as a state full of drunks and crazy people. The CBC’s News Publisher said the following:
“Vince Carlin, the CBC ombudsman, has now issued his assessment of the Mallick column. He doesn’t fault her for riling readers by either the caustic nature of her tone or the polarizing nature of her opinion. But he objects that many of her most savage assertions lack a basis in fact. And he is certainly correct. Mallick’s column is a classic piece of political invective. It is viciously personal, grossly hyperbolic and intensely partisan. And because it is all those things, this column should not have appeared on the CBCNews.ca site.”
He went on to add:
“As a public broadcaster we have an added responsibility to provide an array of opinions and voices to complement our journalism. But we must do so carefully. And you should be able to trust us to provide you with work that’s based on solid reporting and free from the passionate excesses of partisanship. We failed you in this case… Ombudsman Carlin makes another significant observation in his response to complainants: when it does choose to print opinion, CBCNews.ca displays a very narrow range on its pages. In this, Carlin is also correct [i.e., all opinions published by the CBC are authored by leftists].”
Finally, a bit of reality from the horse’s mouth for the enlightenment of leftists who live in perpetual denial as to the existence of the left-wing mainstream media.
The Gwen Ifill travesty brings this topic home to America. Even though the woman wrote a book (heretofore undisclosed) praising Obama and what she describes as the “Obama generation, [which] is just beginning its run,” she will be moderating the VP debate tomorrow. To top it all off, she is timing the release of her book to coincide exactly with inauguration day, January 20, 2009, no doubt in the hope that her book sales will be boosted by the excitement of the inauguration of the man at the center of her book.
I have long predicted here that Obama will win nationally by about six points over McCain in the two-party vote. The media complicity in his campaign’s efforts is one of the biggest reasons he will win, as I have explained here before. But rarely am I blessed by events with so many examples of how the media works, in America and elsewhere in the West, to illustrate the narrative.
95. Presumably you’ll start believing them when they show information that’s favourable to the tories.
94 - Joke characters can’t complain about other people pretending to be something they are not.
102
No I will believe them when they are not manipulated
Gabble. Cei dy geg. Ti’n siarad cachu iar. Translate that then.
Did any of you see the focus group from Stafford on the BBC news, not a single good comment, was that the way it was, or are all the reasonable comments on the cutting room floor
94. Sorry Gabble I’d missed that. You’re right. A fake indeed.
Even Cameron’s wife couldn’t describe it as ‘rousing’
100. Publicly funded left-of-centre broadcaster with admitted liberal bias in critique of Tory leader’s conference speech shocker.
lol. Stop the f*cking presses.
84 - The Irish Govt may have guaranteed savings with Irish banks, but who has guaranteed savings with the Irish Govt?
Having watched him in action I can’t claim to like Paul Dacre or his bullying atyle in the newsroom but his record at the Mail is absolutely fantastic.
But he’s wrong on Cameron, just wrong. A right-wing Tory party has had a great record in the last decae at being heavily stuffed. David Cameron is doing for the Tories what Tony Blair did for Labour, making them the obvious choise at a general election.
I struggled to vote Tory in 2001, I reckon several Labour supporters will struggle to vote for Gordon Brown. He’s just plain crap at the job.
104. Which will coincide with the occasions when they are favourable to the tories?
Oh dear, the lefties are rattled tonight…….
98. & 104. That’s like my Sat Nav being stolen - it went down as intellegence as it was not going to be solved! The coppers said crime was booming but it did not show up in the official figures.
Only Gabble or the gullable believe the crime figures or any other figure for that matter the government produces.
very o/t *cau dy geg is standard spelling non dialect oops. I am sorry but being insulted by the very ppl who my family follwed for generations really gets my back up. The suspicions arose when the trade unions started to get elitist and greedy. Remmember the tolpuddle martyrs, watt tyler and Dic Penderyn!!
107. Remember, Rogerdamus, when we are assessing a Cameron speech we always need to compare it to his opponent’s achievements in public speaking. Because that’s what Cameron is up against.
I think we all need to be reminded, one more time, just how good Brown is at the communication thing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7643239.stm
Interestingly, the BBC’s Have Your Say is enthusiastic about David Cameron:
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=5429&edition=1&ttl=20081001185114&#paginator
Gabble is Derek Draper and I claim my £10
Cameron has also won back the Hefferlump.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/3117484/Tory-Party-Conference-Superb-David-Cameron-speaks-up-for-Conservative-values.html
Whether that will please the Tory leader, who knows.
115. I was talking to a bloke who thought gordon was great last year, he saw Cameron’s speech and said that Cameron was the real deal and he was voting for Cameron next election. The comments on Brown from this said individual would have Roger going mental, so i won’t say anymore!
115. If someone had come here and claimed to have been a Tory all their lives but found Brown’s speech ‘rousing’ I think that might also be suspect!!
119. The bloke had heard Cameron’s speech today!
Rather surprising, a rave review for Cammo from… The Herald.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2455683.0.Sketch_David_Camerons_conference_speech.php
Not seen any of it yet, but:
1 - I like “a man with a plan”. That could resonate, answering a number of criticisms of DC and an implied dig at Brown (who is a man without a plan). (Or be totally forgotten by Friday…
)
2 - plenty of positive looking coverage on the BBC website, big banner proclaiming Cameron’s Big Speech against a nice deep blue Tory backdrop. The BBC homepage looked more like the Conservative homepage (well, old style Tory website anyway) than the lefty BBC.
Looking forward to seeing this once I get home. A difficult message, but I hope he’s sold it well.
As for the polls, I think Labour have recovered ground with the financial crisis focusing voters’ minds. I don’t actually expect any bounce at all for the Tories this week given wider concerns. Indeed, I see the lead narrowing further whilst we pass through the current turbulent air. If the polls show an increased Tory lead up towards 20 points again, then that would be astonishing. And definitely curtains for Brown, and Labour.
Gabble the Astrobot & Roger - the Eric & Ernie of PB
Ah but I am not a labour voter as I have already said I went off them post 2001.
I thought Cameron’s speech was rather good, his oratory skills are quite superb and the rousing climax really home. If Gordon Brown is still in office come the next GE, Cameroon will wipe the floor with him.
Emily Maitlis of the BBC looked crest fallen by the end of it, silly mo.
” or are all the reasonable comments on the cutting room floor?”
I think that they are in the same bin as the unfavourable comments on Gordon Brown after his Conference speech.
BBC biase, never!
116. So does Conservative Home.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/10/david-camerons.html
Clearly the ordinary man on the street loved it.
108 You can try to shoot the messenger if it helps you feel better, but the truth is that this speech was not great, not a patch on his speech last years. Even Mike wasn’t impressed. How can you be impressed with a political philosophy based on “doing the right thing, because it is right”. The spelling stuff and the emotional bullshit was embarrassing.
Despite all this, I suspect the net result will probably be a small bounce for Cameron, just because he’s a nice pretty boy.
He was right to attack libertarians though. Heffer likes Cameron says it all.
Top tip: Mike you can use Amazons Elastic Compute Cloud to instantly scale your site. Quite reasonable. $0.10 per instance hour.
120. Roger, Labour are doomed - DOOMED! Brown has let the country down and from your point of view, he has let Labour down. You should welcome a change of government as a democrat and a stoic socilaist. Brown has perverted the Labour party message and raped their electoral appeal. I am sure you will vote Labour at the next election Roger but in your heart you know that it is time for change - It is time for the Tories!
You can smell the fear coming from Gabble’s keyboard.
83. Go look up the BCS. It’s the best stats available really.
128 - I’m not suggesting that Have Your Say is particularly indicative of general public opinion, but as a BBC site, it does give the lie to the idea that the BBC is inevitably biased one way or the other.
Roger - Is any feedback from your Dutch butlers taxi driver available?
OT. It’s very odd watching so many ads appearing for Bradford and Bingley. A good friend of mine handles the account and what seems to have happened is that the airtime has been allocated and there isn’t anyone incharge to tell the stations to stop running them. More money down the toilet.
135. You mean Tax payer money Roger?
129 - How do you deduce that “Mike wasn’t impressed” from the header? He said, and I quote:
“Against a background when Cameron’s experience was on the line he had to have response to the damaging novice jibe by Gordon Brown a week ago. I thought his line played well but we’ll see in the polls later in the month whether he has succeeded.
Cameron is at his strongest when he gets angry and his attack on the bureaucracy of the NHS seem to chime with the audience and my guess will resonate more widely.
But there were weak points. I felt that the way he brought his wife Samantha into the speech was just naff - “the entrepreneur he goes to bed with every night”. From the TV coverage it appeared to bomb.
…
Before the speech I was a buyer of Tory seats on the spread markets and a seller of Labour. Nothing has happened to change that.”
So, he thought the Cameron line played well, that he was at his best when angry, he told a joke that bombed but he remains a buyer of Tory seats and a seller of Labour. I’m sure Cameron would settle for that level of unimpressedness across the country.
According to Guido, Maguire and Draper didn’t like it…
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/speech-reactions.html
The Brown experience: a nightmare ride which leaves you broke and queasy.
Agree with MIke that the mere fact that there is Cameron coverage should be enough to give bounce.
Yet my reaction chimes with the BBC Stafford focus group-Cameron boasts of his plan for change but what is the cunning plan.A reductuion in coporation tax is hardly helpto lw paid families.The council tax freexze is agood line butis clearly a weasel in detail.
What is require in a plan is a bit of redsitribution of tax burden from the poor to the rich-even the USA looks as though the new bail out plans will have help for low and middle income earners!
rogerh
To sum up, the lefties who matter (i.e. the pundits on the Guardian, Indy etc) have reluctantly conceded it was a decent speech (see Michael White as well). Meanwhile the rightwingers were either impressed or seriously wowed.
That leaves, in the whole of the UK, Gabble, Jonathan and Woger disliking it.
I think Cammo can cope with that.
135. Have you seen the American series Mad Men? About ad men on madison avenue in the 60s?
It’s brilliant.
I seem to have missed Gabble’s return.
I am so happy Gabble is back as it will provide us with endless hours of amusement in the face of the not so amusing events in the business world.
How was life in the bunker ?
McCain camp forced to push back against the six Quinnipiac polls showing him tanking in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania :
On Florida - “Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans.”
“These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2 percent, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track – if not tighter.”
116 & 118 - Extraordinary. The Nu Lab bias filter must have broken - has Robert sabotaged it’s SQL tables? I’m sure normal service will be resumed shortly
Poll for Arizona - McCain holds a 7% lead in his home state
http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/story.cfm?id=9577
Sen. Barack Obama seems to be closing the gap in Arizona as the number of undecided voters shrinks, according to a statewide poll that shows Sen. John McCain holding a 7-point lead in his home state.
McCain led 45 percent to Obama’s 38 percent among the 976 registered voters polled between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET-TV. Independent candidate Ralph Nader received 1 percent and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney each received less than 1 percent of the vote. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Last month, the poll found that McCain led by 10 percentage points. At that time, McCain had 40 percent of the vote, while Obama drew 30 percent, Nader drew 2 percent, Barr had 1 percent and 27 percent were undecided.
“At one time, it looked like Arizona was solidly Republican, but now has become a state in which the Democrats may choose to actively campaign,” according to a statement released by pollster and ASU professor Bruce Merrill. “Most importantly, the undecided vote is now down to 15 percent. The electorate is highly polarized and there probably won’t be much movement by Republicans and Democrats.”
Has anyone mentioned the disasterous CIPS manufacturing figures released earlier?
With manufacturing, finance and construction all visibly disintegrating, and with retail now following, unemployment is going to soar.
At least though this country is still the world leader in creating public sector non-jobs.
Silly comment about Thatcher. He must have known it would be used as a soundbite. Not only was she hated by far more people than loved her but she was booted out by her own party. Nonetheless a timely reminder for those who think he’s a liberal.
G Mad men gets seriously boring as it goes on.
131 - richard - “You can smell the fear coming from Gabble’s keyboard.”
No, it’s the usual smell and it isn’t fear (although it may be a by-product thereof)
149. So why does Brown keep inviting her to Chequers and Number 10, etc? Why does he want to give her a state funeral?
I am with impressed Cameron but not much with the tories because he has a bit of life and Gordon Brown is so boring! See…the tories my family and friends still distrust but now a few always voted labour ppl are saying they are all the same why vote….that is the scariest thing for me. I am sick of endless tory lab cycles but the fact ppl don’t want to vote is the reason I am attacking the Nulab and hence why SNP are doing a little better than usual.
Cameron struck the right tone, it cant be denied that he is an impressive communicator.
In terms of policy detail, this speech was reactionary and backward looking:
-No promise of tax cuts for hard hit families, but sticks to his inheritance tax pledge
-Strong support for academy programme, essentially admitting that it was a return to the failed GMS project
-Glorification of the Thatcher years
-Lightweight on the economy
My full verdict is at http://www.currentvision.blogspot.com
148. Bit like Blair then!
149. I’m yet to be bored.
@113
Some crimes are falling - people are robbed of their mobiles less often thanks to technological change (they can be turned off more easily). Similarly cars are much more difficult to steal.
Overall crime has probably come off from the peak (1995ish? IIRC), partially because of the stuff above, partially because the economy has been good and if my memory serves me right because the peak of young men has passed the point of maximum offending. But crime remains horribly high relative to other advanced nations (just google International Crime Victim Survey). It is pointless claiming that all the stats are cooked, they always are, no matter who is in charge, mainly because stuff has to be defined in some way. Sat Navs being stolen are intelligence, but beating someone up and taking their stuff in a school used to be one crime “robbery”, but is now “theft” and “assault” (two crimes). Swings and roundabouts.
Some crimes are probably increasing - violent crimes and youth crime - and in certain parts of the country are particularly bad. This represents an issue that needs to be tackled, and Labour have been crap (lots of knife wielders will go to jail guff, not to mention Jacqui and the aborted attempt to show crims A&E).
What is true is that the police are deeply unhappy with their target culture imposed from above and the low sentences imposed from the centre. They want to see longer sentences, which means more prison space. Cameron is right that crime needs to be tackled at the root. (Gosh Tony used to say that too.)
Gabble, whingeing about the past is pointless - yes crime is a bit lower than 1995. No one cares about what happened during the 80s. The 80s represented a seismic shift in the way the economy worked. The point is, how do the two parties compare today with regard to criminal justice policy. The Labour answer has been targets and emptying prisons because they are too full. Labour have tried some ideas, some worked, some didnt. Cameron is suggesting new policies and an approach slightly different from “lock em up”.
Whether the likes of Gabble like it or not (and judging by the screaming about the 80s, he doesnt like it), the Cameroons are providing some direction in social justice and law and order. It is grist for the mill that the Tories are new, energetic with change in mind. Gabble whinges “it used to be worse under them.” Not a riposte, just feeble words.
Conservatives are ready to lead Britain
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/3116506/Tory-party-conference-David-Cameron-says-Conservatives-are-ready-to-lead-Britain.html
Good headline from the telegraph.
155 G as a sentient human, you will be.
Roger I agree with you there him comparing himself with Thatcher will not go down at all well in the less affluent parts of wales. A return of thatcher would scare me.
I quite liked his rhetoric about families and marriage and I think this will go down well with working class ppls in Wales BUT not if this means the ‘paddle your own canoe even if you really are in need’ type thing of past tory policy
Does anyone know when the first post-Cameron speech opinion poll is likely to be out? There was a same-night poll out after the Brown speech.
142. Yes and I agree.
A great antidote to Gabble’s posts!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1756956.ece
Cameron hardly ‘glorified’ the Thatcher years, but he made a point that we luckily escaped the ‘experienced’ Callaghan for the derided ( and according to Labout the inexperienced challenger) Thatcher.
If Labour had won in 1979 we would have been awash with bossy union bosses, regular begging to the IMF and about as much international trade as Malawi.
Well, Malawi is an hyperbole as its the size of the average English village ( which is why failed Scottish Labour leaders are exiled there) but the image is worthwhile.
I love hoiw leftied are deluding themselves that the speech won’t have gone down well, that it wasn’t much good, etc…. We all heard exactly the same thing this time last year and we all know what happened.
160. Won’t the Sundays have something done (already scheduled to measure the Tory conference bounce).
144. Sounds like the McCain camp are rattled. Jan @ 56 thinks he still has a chance but it’s getting much more difficult to make a case for a McCain victory. I think I’ll let my heavy Obama position ride.
164. As I said on the backup blog:
“All Cameron’s conference speeches this week have passed without a breath of criticism from the MSM.
This will, no doubt, result in a lift for the tories in the polls but we shouldn’t confuse that with genuine public enthusiasm.
01 October 2008 16:27″
100.”Cameron got a roasting on the Radio4 PM panel. Seems to re-enforce the notion that this speech was content lite. Hugely flattering to Brown that the whole speech was designed to answer one line in Gordon’s speech. Not sure he’s succeeded either.”
David Cameron + The Conservative party + The centre ground = a majority in a GE.
It was a good speech, but where it really hit home and worked was the fact that for the first time since the early 90’s it felt that the leader and the WHOLE Conservative party were on the same page as the voters they need to appeal too to win that GE.
Its not just about Gordon Brown being a bad PM, or the Labour party imploding internally although that is important because governments lose elections, but they have lost their connection with the voters that kept them in power under Blair for 10 years.
123. “The man with the plan” schtick didn’t work for Gaitskell in ‘59.
Cameron will win, though, because the economy is tanking and Brown totally lacks vision. The fundamentals of the economy weren’t too strong in ‘59 but unfortunately the voters didn’t see it and gave Supermac a landslide.
142. I ahte the advertising industry with a passion. That isn’t to be unkind on the people who work in it. After all, everyone has to earn a living.
170. Sorry, that should be hate not ahte.
163. Yeah I didn’t like the way the unions got so powerful in 1979 did more harm than good to socialism.
Anybody see Cammos post conference TV broadcast? It had so much gravity that one could almost have thought it was a Prime Ministerial address to the nation. He looks so much more calm, assured, dignified and in control than the actual Prime Minister. When can we have an election and get a real PM into Downing St?
Interesting, I have just seen Howard Davis former head of the CBI from the early 1990’s on ch4 news. I think that he would actually make a really good minister in a Cameron Government(From the Lords). I remember in the 1990’s he used to be fairly warm about the tories! I also remember an amusing incident on question time about sex that led to a raising of an eyebrow by him!
Jack P well if it didn’t work 60 years ago it is bound to fail now. Nothing has really changed, has it?
I just hope cameron is a decent bloke when in power like he tries to appear.
173.
You really want another useless Blair clone that much?
Gaitskills plan was to go back towards the post war regimented economy. Wilson quietly dumped it and 1964 happened.
Wilson Blair. Only the raincoat is different?
12 SBS
Sarcastic - but witty.
This could all play well into Salmonds hands if economy starts to recover by 2010/11??
159, reminded me of a Private Eye caption some time ago. I think it said something like: “Genetically engineered hybrid created” with a picture of Cameron greeting people. One said “He’s half-Thatcher, half-Blair!”
So, he’ll be PM for 21 years:p
my spelling and typing is going down even more. Gaitskell’s plan. The spelling and grammar police on here will get me, and none of them report to Cameron.
167. I see. Preparing the ground for when your 20 points behind again? Will Browns enemies on the Labour Party take any notice?
118&122. Heffer and the Hearald liked Cameron’s speech, we live in strange times.
175. I didn’t say that - I think it will work. Just pointing out that the slogan isn’t entirely original. What goes around comes around.
Just like Labour’s “Britain: Forward Not Back” in 2005 was stolen from the Saskachewan NDP. Well, not the Britain bit, obviously.
184.Oops, Herald.
Jack P I agree with that, only rarely is anything really original.
177. I want someone thats in control and that can actually communicate like a human being. That would be start.
188. GIN. Agreed
8 I did hear the 5Live coverage. It was a disgrace. After playing all the bad comments they then muttered ….Well to be fair that was all abit too negative….
The same group could be seen on the main news bulletin.
A less negative picture. And no way were most floaters. In fairness one was clearly a Tory.
Gove very deftly made him look like a prat.
There was not a lot of substance but Cameron still persists with his plan to disadvantage kids from single parent families to the benefit of kids from two-parent families.
Gabble No he doesn’t. At least spin the truth not lies.
Surely the most rearkable part of his speech was a declaration of all out war against elements of the educational establishment. Quite what that will really mean, we’ll have to wait and see.
180
The economy will start to recover 6 months after interest rates have been cut by 1% or more..
Until then it’s going to be a nasty recession: worse than anticipated cos the so called experts can’t recognise a bubble when they see one. As there were bubbles everywhere - housing, food, oil, coommodities - the repercussions hurt.
The deleveraging of bank lending will take 10 years to complete.. and will basically ruin the lifestyles of those who live first pay later…
( Labour Governments included)
A smattering of new dirt in the Canadian election. I don’t think it will have much, if any, effect on the Tory lead.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/509553
These are the top read stories on the BBC website right now:
iTunes store shutdown feared
Police to act on Campbell taunts
SAS man ’shot by British bullet’
Colonial clue to the rise of HIV
Con artist admits £2m fraud spree
…and no mention of Cameron.
There is absolutely no enthusiasm for this smooth-talking cretin.
Andrew Grice (The Independent) seems to have summed up todays speech about right.
Were I to play the spread markets I would be a buyer of Tory seats right away.
We are witnessing the meltdown of NuLabour and wait and see the newspapaer coverage tomorrow.
Today in Politics: ‘Novice’ Cameron passes the test
By Andrew Grice in Birmingham
David Cameron’s big speech to the Tory conference was rewritten many times in the light of the fast-moving global financial crisis. In fact, it was shaped largely by Gordon Brown’s potentially devastating charge last week that he is a “novice.”
The Tory leader pulled it off. He did not resort to personal attacks on Brown, which would have made a nonsense of his offer to support measures to help Britain through the global crisis. But answered the “inexperienced” jibe by drawing a contrast between him and his rival.
Today’s difficult times needed experience, he conceded, but argued they also required character and judgement. He added: “The leadership to unite your party and build a strong team. The character to stick to your guns and not bottle it when times get tough. The judgement to understand the mistakes that have been made and to offer the country change.” As for Brown’s experience, he argued the last thing the country needed was “more of the same”. His message to the voters was: don’t hang on to nurse when she hasn’t been looking after you.
Cameron described himself as “a man with a plan, not a miracle cure.” There wasn’t much detail on offer today. He announced a wholesale review of government spending, a recognition that best laid Tory plans may be blown off course by the state of the economy.
The Tory leader admitted that “you can’t prove you’re ready to be prime minister”, saying it would be arrogant to try. But today he did look like a prime minister-in-waiting.
191.Gabble, calm down and pace yourself, you know that you end up getting dizzy if have to do the late shift on here.
They’re no longer all just the same…
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/party-politics/conservatives/cameron-speech-analysis-$1243087.htm
191
Kids from two parent families start with a great advantage: two parents.
193 - I think he will take on the NUT in the same way that Mrs T took on the NUM.
200. Madasafish: “Kids from two parent families start with a great advantage: two parents.”
So why give them an additional financial advantage over kids from single-parent families?
201
It can only be the educational establishment that fights to try untried methods, sticks to failing systems and rejects sytems proven to work elesewhere. See the length of time to get phonetics established.
As for the NUT, it reminds me of the NUM.
COT. The House of representatives will vote again on Friday whether to support the ‘Bail out Bill’. But the Senate votes tonight. Fingers crossed!
202
Because at present the tax and benefits system supports single parent families more than two parent ones.
Do keep up.
204
My Dow chart suggests the vote will be close.
Three Line Whip has this on the Unite protest at the Tories.
“It is a while since the Tories were worth holding a demonstration against. But yesterday, right outside their conference, the trade union movement was back in town, waving placards and jeering at passing Tories. “Same old Tories, always cheating,” ran the chant from members of Unite.
Conservatives walking past grinned at the spectacle, rather enjoying being regarded as worthy of attack after a decade when the Left had nothing to fear from the party.
The brains behind this protest - and a string of newspaper adverts screaming “David Cameron: cheesy and sleazy” - is, of course, our old friend Charlie Whelan.
He’s the political director of Unite and a believer that the Labour movement needs to show a good deal more fight in its approach to taking on the Tories. Be prepared to see much more in the next 18 months.”
Just like old times! But if Campbell and Whelan are back helping the Brown team, it will be interesting to see how their style works now that Labour are not riding the crest of the wave of the early Labour years when Blair was popular and the Tories were on everyone’s most hated list.
Hillary on BBC….
43 I think you have just spotted a gap in the market. Time to have a word with the flame haired one.
In all seriousness - and I don’t expect a commment in reply for obvious reasons - but The Sun and The Times may have to do more than just get off the fence when they see someone is nearing the finishing post.
If they don’t want debt to continue to spiral -and my guess is they don’t - they will have to start going for it with Brown for real, not just acting like they have a split personality.
Channel 4. Listen to what the floating voters of Reading think of Cameron’s speech. Starting in three mins. I’ll bet at best it’s neutral. It really wasn’t a good speech unless you’re a Tory.
196. Gabble you are a discracrful liar; soon found out and shamed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
189. Its a serious point. I’ve just got no faith in Brown. That he is in control and knows that he’s doing. Whilst it would be an exageration to say I lie awake at night worrying that Brown is running the country, I do find it terribly disconcerting. We’ve got a man thats PM but isn’t up to it and may or not be as mad as box of frogs. At least with Blair, even in his final months, you somehow knew he was in control and even if you hated almost everything he stood for (which in the end I did) the one thing you could never say is that he wasn’t a reassuring presense. We don’t get that with Brown and it these times of crisis its more important than ever.
196. Gabble you are a discraceful liar; soon found out and shamed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
196. Gabble I thought BBC were pro labour which is in PRINCIPLE ( which new labour have not got) is wrong…there are meant to be a neutral body not pro lab pro israel as they appear. ITV and Sky at least have the grace to observe and report and not distort. BBC underepresented us Fringe areas of Britain for years in their national broadcast. I will not forget
The BBC are an utter and absolute disgrace. They are plainly carrying out a pre-determined agenda that is not, in any universe, a report of what has occurred on the stage at the Conference.
Radio 5live’s piece on the ‘floating voters panel’ was so far removed from reality that I have to question if there should not be an investigation into it’s baffling pro-Labour bias.
WFT is actually going on at the BBC?
It started the minute Cameron walked off stage live on BBC News 24 and hasn’t stopped since.
I feel like I’m stuck in some kind of rose tinted parallel universe that saw a completely different speech to me.
I think Gabble is talking about the most read file….but that takes time to updat so if by tomorrow nothin changed Gabble is right of sorts but……..could be ppl are fed up of politics in general. Which is worse
Sam Coates has this on the Unite campaign. Unite disunited over Tory attack campaign
“Unite the Union have sprayed anti-Tory attack ads all over the papers this morning (see Comment Central). Not the most subtle, they call David Cameron “cheesy and sleazy” for taking donations from “crony” bankers who have engaged in short selling. A week ago, Unite - whose political director is Brown “crony” Charlie Whelan - made clear it would be stepping up its efforts to try and shoehorn Labour into a fourth term for power. And here it is.
But Unite are, needless to say, divided about the campaign, with some unhappy that workers subscriptions are being used for political advertising for a party which is failing to deliver on big parts of their agenda.
Jerry Hicks, who looks set to challenge general secretary Derek Simpson for the leadership, said: “We are not getting value for money. This is the latest in a series. They spent a million on a campaign against Peugeot which achieved nothing. This high spending of ordinary people’s money has to stop.”"
203 — the real curse of education is that anyone can appoint themselves an expert, and most politicians do.
How does the shadow education secretary aim to remodel schools? Which drugs does the shadow health secretary prescribe for cancer? That’s the difference.
I’d like to see an educational equivalent of NICE set up to review and commission research into what works. Because asking politicians clearly does not.
Channel 4 floating voters less critical than the BBCs
210, so it’ll only satisfy 52% of people then?
More seriously, the anti-Cameron response is interesting. Nothing on style over substance, nobody’s repeating the novice line because he dealt with it. As an Opposition Leader he’s covered all the bases. Gravitas popular touch, speaking without notes, coming back from the brink last year.
It may very well be that the electoral cycle and public zeitgeist will simply become a current too strong for Labour to stand.
210. These vox pops that the news channels do immediatly after a major speech or budget are meaningless. The only real, scientific test of what people think will be when the opinion polls come out starting from tomorrow evening.
219 and by less critical I mean broadly in favour and interested in voting Tory
222 - Obama has been mentioned!
Watched the speech in anticipation of something great and was pretty underwhelmed. Some of it was good. His commentary on the reasons we are in the mess was superb - spot on. However, he spoilt this with some really petty platitudes. One of the worst was his silly cheerlead about ECRB checks on parents. Of course we should have CRB checks on those looking after children - I wouldn’t want my son or daughter lodging for a week with someone who hadn’t been screened. It’s not a difficult process, but simply double-checks to make sure you’re not dealing with a paedo. This was the sort of stupid, childish, petty conference-massaging which did little to reassure me that we’re dealing with a decent PM. So in other words, he’s just like Tony Blair then.
55 But Sean, last time I looked The Mail was losing readers. The Express was putting them on!
Word/unsubstantiated rumour is that Dacre is an imposing man who is older and maybe more authoritive than his boss. But since I picked this up from rival newspaper organisations, who knows?
Tory waverers hardening
‘He has listened’
‘More of a leader’
One guy not yet convinced but the rest going blue
‘cautious thumbs up’
BBC, lol
213. Very unparliamentary language weathercock. (And I suggest you read your own link)
@219 Fairly positive “a cautious thumbs up for DC”. On C4 Reading voters.
I wonder if this is C4 making a play for some of the License Fee when the Tories win?
“There is absolutely no enthusiasm for this smooth-talking cretin.”
That’s why Labour have been behind in the polls for over a year, then.
Channel 4 News: Row over Cameron’s example of mistreated NHS patient.
Apparantley, Alan Johnson had written a personal letter in response to the case.
209 - Well it was fairly late in the last electoral cycle that we had the red smoke coming from the chimney at Wapping. I would not expect anything definite to come this far from a general election. I think an even-handed approach is not the wrong thing from NGN.
Histrionic attacks on party leaders (or London Mayors) seem silly. The Guardian and Mail spring to mind as papers with rather stupid editorials lately.
I thought the Scottish Sun’s article on Mr Gray was hilarious today. Did any of you read the link I posted late last night. Made me chuckle. Not sure we’d have seen such an early hatchet job on a Westminster leader!
217 However much money Unite waste on Charlie Whelan’s per project, I still find it hard to imagine many voters on a day in May/June 2010 choosing 5 more years of Gordon Brown. He might have got a conference boost, the financial crisis might help in short term but when the campaign starts?
215 ‘I feel like I’m stuck in some kind of rose tinted parallel universe that saw a completely different speech to me’, yes, it’s called the PB blog Matt, but I would guess they are blue rinse tinted spectacles.
Anyone persisting with this line about BBC Radio bias should check out the occasional phone in on Radio 2 or 5…
148
Roger,can you give us an update on how well those Barclays bank shares you bought a few months ago have done?
Matthew d’Ancona on the Coffee House Blog thinks this was http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2189771/the-speech-of-a-prime-minister-in-waiting.thtmlThe speech of a Prime Minister in waiting
“No new dawns, no immediate transformations. I’m a man with a plan, not a miracle cure’: in that line lay the key message at the heart of this astute speech, by a man who now deserves to be seen as the Prime Minister in waiting.”
And like him, I spotted the way Cameron patted Samantha’s tummy at the end of his speech and wondered about any forth coming events?
“Very unparliamentary language weathercock.”
Gabble isn’t an MP; the precious (and pernicious, mendacious) diddums can take the knocks here along with the rest of us.
What did your Dutch friends think of Cameron’s speech, Roger?
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LOL - anyone would think they want to stop people emptying their accounts to whack them into an Irish bank!
Barclays will come good. No worries there. Unfortunately a good friend of mine was handling the advertising for B+B so I brought quite a few of those at around £3.50 a share so the Dom Perignon will have to give way to Sainsbury’s 2007 for the next few months!
One of the interesting things about the C4 panel was that they only had one woman, and she adored Cameron. Is it possible that the women they screened to include were all so gushing about Cameron that they decided they had to include more men so as to make it more equivocal?
Having a universal Cameron love-in probably wouldn’t have struck them as dynamic enough. I don’t recall how well Cameron is doing amongst women, but I’m going to have a little check…
237. Or it could be that so many people are logging in to remove their funds that the website is server is creaking under the strain? :O
225 Sorry but in the August NRS report in the media Guardian the Daily Mail was up 3%, Daily express down 6%. Mail on Sunday up 2%, Sunday Express down 10%. Dacre is still bringing in the readers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/aug/22/pressandpublishing?gusrc=rss&feed=media
Channel 4 news said “he didnt promise to bring taxes down”
he did - 3 p off corporation tax .
other than that, i thought channel 4 news were quite fair and balanced about Cammy’s speech.
233. Wisbech. “I feel like I’m stuck in some kind of rose tinted parallel universe”
You’ll get used to it!!
Former senior McCain consultant Mike Murphy asks why McCain was in Iowa today ?
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/des_moines_register.html
We all know you Roger as an appologist for our Great Leader, who has lead the UK for 10 years in tandem with T.Blair, and another 15/16 months on his own.
This,(can one really call him a man) creature, has lead Britain into Swamp of over-spending and debt; a Quagmire of billions fritted away on the NHS, Education and Quangos to no purpose except to make the British people more beholden to a socialist and more gestapo like government.
Freedom of the individual is to be slowly abolished under Brown, with ID cards, 42 days detention, and more bondage to agencies which hane proliferated under this lunatic.
148
‘Silly comment about Thatcher’
Is that why Gordon Brown holds Thatcher in such high esteem?
First photos with her on the steps of Downing street,then invitations to Chequers,or is he just looking for advice from her?
[239] - Following up, it looks like, from the August ICM Guardian, that women are more likely to vote Labour than men, which confounds the inference I had drawn in my earlier post…
The figures were:
Female: Con 45% - Lab 30%
Male: Con 48% - Lab 24%
118 Heffer is having a bit of a go at Obsorne and I can’t help wondering if he is getting his own back.
Neill ambushed Osborne with a ‘right wing commentator’s quote’ at lunchtime.
Osborne rightly inquired with a smirk, as to who it was….which was followed up with abit of banter about Heffer.
238
You certainly have a unique ability to pick losers!
244.
“So, 35 days left and McCain is in Iowa? Why put McCain in the wrong state, at the wrong place? ”
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/mccain_camp_pushes_back_on_pol.html
“McCain pushback on Florida polls: “Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans. “”
you wonder if they have a few problems with their internal polling. 7 points up? mccain hasn’t been that far clear in florida in any poll for nearly a month now
233 - Yes, I make no excuse for being Tory baised and therefore my comments are generally in that context.
Sometimes I do post fair and balanced stuff, but in all truth probably rarely.
However, I feel the mood of the people ‘out there’ is that Cameron’s speech was a very impressive speech indeed. I am being told that, it’s not an impression.
I wait with anticipation the next serious poll so that it can be rolled up, lubricated and forcefully inserted up the BBC’s metaphorical and generously funded rectum, along the same line as the famous Greenhouse scene in ‘Scum’.
245. Weathercock. Was that in answer to my post inquiring why you didn’t take the trouble to read your own link?
I’m know it doesn’t get more embarrassing than that and I can understand why you’re too ashamed to apologize to Gabble…..but even by your standards that was a pretty weak diversion.
I’m certainly not going to jump on the ‘BBC is biased’ bandwagon, as I simply don’t believe it is that biased most of the time.
But I did think the ‘focus group’ used on the R4 PM programme was very biased against Cameron - almost nothing positive to say !! [the reporter was Carolyn 'Westminster Hour' Quinn..]
Annoyingly this must have been exactly the same focus group Laura Kuenssberg used. [well, I'm making an assumption here - they were in Stafford, and it seems unlikely they would have hoiked in a second lot of people to inflict a conference speech on. ] This seemed a bit more balanced with some positives [although the general view was that they were unimpressed]
Perhaps I just took a different view - I thought Cameron was, if anything, a bit too polished. Not exactly a double-glazing salesman, more a senior marketing guy for a solar-panel company..
There did seem to be a lot of ‘button-pressing’ and ‘box-ticking’, but I guess we had that with Tony Blair, although the ‘faking of sincerity’ was just a little bit more ‘convincing’ with him..
251 - wouldn’t call that greenhouse scene famous, unless you put an “in” in front of it
From reading around various (some non-political) internet sites and some news on the telly, it’s broadly in favour of Cameron. Interesting to note that the ones anti-DC have that aura of sounding and reading quite rattled.
Did Cameron lie about the Johnson letter?
He played Alan Johnson’s supposedly inadequate response, to the mis-treated patient’s plight, for all it was worth.
If it is true, it was still a cheap shot. If it turns out to be false, then he should apologise and quick.
If Cameron had stood up today and said:
“Be assured, I will work round the clock to take the decisive steps necessary to ensure stability in our finanical system”, repeated 300 times, would that have been a speech of great gravitas and clarity, or a bit ‘policy lite’?
When DC referenced the Johnson letter, his point was that the NHS was over-burdened with complaints mechanisms and not properly focussed on allowing dying patients to retain their dignity.
It wasn’t about Johnson’s reply - it was about the mass of penpushers that Labour has imposed on the NHS and how that has taken resources away from the patients.
No need for any apology - other than from Labour to the patients who have suffered as a result of their spending choices.
The NHS deserves massive resources - but only to be spent on patient care. Not on management.
That was the point DC was making - and he made it loud and clear.
255
The cheap shot was the shoddy treatment his constituents received.
He talks about the response he got form Alan Johnson, not any repsonse that may have been sent to the constituent.
But still, something for you to spin about given how well the speech has gone down
Dow down at the moment - squeaky bum time before the vote.
I take it if it doesn’t get te 60% it needs we are looking down the barrel tomorrow am?
251. Not sure I agree there. I get the impression that most people haven’t taken much notice of Cameron’s speech and those that have haven’t been moved much either way. With a healthy lead in the polls, that probably doesn’t matter too much for him - it certainly wasn’t a make-or-break speech like last year.
I’d anticipate a small closing of the gap in the polls. The financial crisis is playing to what strengths the PM is perceived to have and the Tory shadow cabinet has clearly clearly taken a decision not to go too hard at the moment, presumably as they can’t do that and offer to co-operate in cross-party discussions to resolve the financial crisis. The implicit threat of spending cuts will put some off as well, though in the medium term it will probably prove beneficial.
I was travelling during Cameron’s speech so won’t offer an opinion (though so far as it goes I like the bit Herbert Proper selected), but I agree with Mike that the exposure should give the Tories a bounce. On the whole I reckon the conference season has moved things slightly Labour’s way, though from a low base, because the economy remains our relatively strongest suit and it’s clearly the dominant issue now (the non-economy bits from all three parties are not going to linger in the memory). The main downside of the Tory conference is that this was going to be the one where they spelt out their plans, and I don’t think the electorate will perceive it as having done so: apart from Cameron’s speech it’s seemed a bit of a non-event.
Once the bounces have settled I guess we’ll be talking of 12-15% Tory leads rather than 20-25%, but a lot depends on how the economic position develops and how we’re seen to be handling it.
250 Dan S. In fairness to McCain this meeting was probably arranged some time back and the Des Moine Register is one of McCain’s few friends in the state MSM, although you wouldn’t think so from McCain’s sour disposition.
Nevertheless when your double digit down in a state and have already scaled down resources there, your time is better spent elsewhere.
202 Gabble you have come out from behind the mask, I see, as an old fashioned leveler down socialist.
Don’t encourage aspiration, hamper those that might get ahead so we can all be equally disadvantage.
Pull them all down. Down I say.
While Camerons speech offered little new or insightful it reminded the voter he is ’still here’ and how palatable he is in comparison to Brown.
259. In the stock market bubble yes but, a) the state will come up with other measures and b) some in banking industry will seek to sort this out.
Speaking as a lone parent I would have said it was obvious that single parent families require more help from the government than two parent families, so I am disturbed by the absurd Tory talk of a “couple penalty”.
Where I am annoyed with the government is that where a family is in a situation where one parent is absent for long periods of time - eg Dad works on an oil rig or in the army, or Mum has to move all the way across the country for a PhD place because the local uni shut down its science departments - that they don’t then help the resident parent. That half of the family is living as a lone parent, but doesn’t get the same help.
266 - I think the penalty is that the benefits system encourages people to live apart rather than together.
A single parent clearly deserves an appropriate level of support - but it has to be wrong for couples to be better off splitting off rather than living together.
263. Witan. To encourage aspiration you need to start with something resembling a level playing field.
The Tories have never really been interested in that part of ‘aspiration’ and now they’re led by the son of a 17th Baronet an an Old Etonian to boot the future doesn’t look bright.
266.Its not absurd, its true. The basic fact is that you are better off on the welfare state if you are single rather than a couple. That is simple not right, you should not be penalised for either being a single parent or a couple.
re 261. Thank you Nick for supporting my media exposure theory.
My guess is that the lead will settle down at one or two points higher than you think - 15-16.
I don’t know when the next poll will come out but I think we can attach the same importance to it as with all the conference polls - not that much.
It’s the end October polls that I want to see.
I have no doubt that this was an impressive speech by an impressive man.
However, I AM a libertarian, and proud to be so. To hear Dave use that term in a negative context is very dismaying. I hope it was an aberration, a nod to the present climate - because if he does truly believe it, I will no longer feel able to vote Tory.
Roger if the boot was on the other foot you’d be screaming prejudice but it is you that is obsessed with class even now, after all these years in power, and err, widening the social divide….. so what if he went to Eton, what does it matter? How many Tory leaders since the war have been to Eton? Was bound to happen sometime. i dont see Blair as being particularly disadvantaged , he went to Fettes. Major went to state school. these things vary through time. It matters not where you came from but what you do . Surely all these years of touchy feely inclusion rammed down your throat by Labour should have tought you nor to be prejudiced against anyone, regardless of background. Or can only “victims” or the “disadvanted” be seen as valid when they say they want to do good? You are the one who is prejudiced.
268. And nor have Labour either. Aspiration lives in people, it lives in families and communities. Government’s role is limited.
You cant make aspiration and you cant make people aspire by law and regulation.
101. “For whatever reason, the mainstream media spin like mad for the left, particularly the taxpayer-funded media.”
Zanu psychology is a kind of inverted racism. It leads people to hate their own nation, culture, traditions, history and civilization. Personally, I think it’s a psychological reaction to hitler and the holocaust. Regardless of the cause Zanu psychology seems to affect artsy type people very disproportionately and it’s that link that leads to the electronic mass media being so distorted in it’s view.
I don’t see it as “Left” personally but Zanu has become the dominant strand of the modern Liberal-Left. The influence of the Zanu people would be pretty small if they didn’t dominate television. They don’t actually represent anyone other than themselves and so without that domination they’d be wiped out as happened in Italy.
They’re not left-wing or liberal they’re a kind of inverted Nazi aka Zanu.
I was there and you had to experience the atmosphere to understand this speech. DC was talking to US, not the world at large. Unusually in conference land where everything is choreographed for the media this speech was aimed fairly and squarely at the converted in the hall.
Why? He knows that the one way that we could still just lose the next election is if we fail to deliver the promise, if we (the party) play to the labour promoted stereotype.
People were queing for a seat at 10.00 am this morning, this was a seminal moment for camerons relationship with his own party, thats why the music track was ‘lets stick together’ by Roxy Music.
We have unity, determination and a sense of purpose because even the doubters have been wowed today.
Roger a level playing field does not require that you plough all the players on the field into it first and then rake it smooth.
269. It’s obviously cheaper for a couple to live than a single person so it’s reasonable that welfare recognize that fact. Without some odd social engineering I don’t see how you can change that?
271. Andy so am I, but the public doesn’t want raw libertarianism at this time. I’ve had to grapple with some harsh truths recently regarding the economy (though I still oppose the bail out) However I dislike big business more than a big government, so I can meet things in the middle if you will. There will always be room for us in the party however.
[269] - Again, speaking as someone in the situation, I know that I would be far better off in a large number of ways if I had not split up with my wife.
Financially I would have two incomes coming into the house, which would more than make up for the loss of some tax credits. Indeed, given the extra costs of living apart I fail to see how anyone could think they would be better off doing so.
I would be so much better off financially that either I would be able to reduce my hours so that I could spend more time with my daughter, or my wife would be able to. So my daughter would have more time with her parents.
It would make me feel so much better not to have to answer the “Why is mummy not here?” question every day.
Finding that I have run out of milk would be far less problematic - I wouldn’t be so much of a prisoner in my own home.
The sad fact is that sometimes relationships do break down. We have to find the best way of dealing with it, instead of pretending that you can stop it with the tax and benefit system.
The reason for Roxy Music was because Bryan Ferry is the only musician that admits to being a Tory!
253 - Talking about the BBC voter panels.
For the Brown speech they used the same panels on Radio 4 and the BBC. They said that the group were undecided voters, however on Radio 4 one of the member of public said, and I paraphrase that he enjoyed Brown’s speech and would vote Labour, however he also said he was always going to vote labour anyway! Hardly a floating voter.
277, social engineering is when you penalise those who want to live together in the benefits system. It promotes a less cohesive family unit, and therefore a less stable society.
271. The point he was making is that you simply cannot expect to be able to do what you want irrespective of the impact on other people. There has been too much about rights, and not enough about responsibilities. The PC lot have much to answer for in this respect.
281, focus groups generally are not worth a damn next to a properly conducted poll. Experimenter bias, (both at the time and in the selection of clips to be shown), small sample sizes, herd mentality etc etc. Plus the end result then gets edited to show whatever the editor wants.
Marcus - it was good to very briefly meet you and put a face to a name on Tuesday at conference. I was with woody662 who stopped you near the cafe by the entrance of the ICC.
280.Roger, its one of my favourite songs, I think the reason for that playful choice was lost on you.
277.Roger, no offence, but you honestly have not got a clue about the reality out there.
272. James. Going to Eton is only a problem because he believes in private schools which are only accessible to a very small number children whose parents have money. Blair went to Fettes but he was against private schools. It’s also telling that Osbornes first policy announcement was increasing IHT to £1,000,000. Hardly encourages a level playing field either.
279.Timothy, some people are making that choice because it makes sense financially which cannot be right.
288, you’re right, it discriminates in favour of those who work hard and want to leave their children something.
Nice to see Roger so rattled. The end of the tax and waste socialist empire, replaced by the hard working, tough on crime Tories.
If all you lefties out there disagree with what Cameron said, this must mean that you believe crime should rise, criminals should be released from prison sooner, that the NHS needs more beaurocrats, that the army should be worse equipped, that corporation tax should be higher to prevent companies moving here, that children shouldn’t learn how to spell and that Brown has left our country in the best shape its ever been in.
This is your vision. I prefer my Tory vision of the future.
286. And letsb all enjoy it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZTsW8WKy5c
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20081001/tpl-uk-financial-britain-deposits-c31991c.html
268 Roger
‘To encourage aspiration………’
As usual and not unsurprisingly the reality is the exact opposite to your rhetoric.Apiration is hated with a vengeance by Labour.
Want to better yourself at University……….We’ll kill that with Tuition fees.
Want a better house………..We’ll make that as difficult as possible with higher council tax and stamp duty.
Want a comfortable retirement……We’ll use the tax system to make sure this doesn’t happen.
274- Your analysis of the factual situation seems right on target, although the causes I’m sure are many and convoluted. Whether it’s a reaction to the Holocaust, Nazism, or whatever, it is real and just as undeniable as the Holocaust itself.
One of the most tragic consequences of the self-hate ideology you describe, to the extent it becomes powerful and influential, is the indefinite but unmistakeable manner in which it destroys societies and, eventually, countries. Once the ancient roots of indigineous cultures (yes, even European cultures) have been made so toxic that they are discarded and left in the past, what is left will be inadequate to meld together a functional or meaningful society.
As a side note, the way the secular left seems to have joined in an unholy alliance with non-Christian religious fanatics, perhaps best embodied in the Ken Livingstone coalition, is very reminiscent of the coalition of interests that brought down the Shah of Iran, and will likely have a similarly unhappy ending in the UK once the dust settles and the new power, whatever it is, consolidates itself. This won’t happen tomorrow or next year or likely even in the next decade, but that is the trajectory that Labour appears to have initiated. Cool Britannia, indeed.
288 “Blair went to Fettes but he is against private schools”
Well, Blair is certainly in favour of private universities. He’s teaching at one of the wealthiest and most exclusive. Where coincidentally his son is.
Fees at Yale === 30,000 dollars a year.
Blair could teach at Northumbria University — close to his own Parl’mentary seat. But I guess that wouldn’t pay so well.
292.If PtP is not about I will just get those blue pompoms…
Blair was opposed to private schools? Really?
An anthem for DC and BO again by Bryan Ferry?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kCYBpa38nY&feature=related
I must admit he is better than Billy Bragg!
O/T - Something old, something new, something borrowed and the boys in blue….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article4862681.ece
SaS, I don’t think you can claim the mild lean of CNN and MSNBC to the left gives any greater advantage to Obama than the outright right-wing Fox and talk radio give to McCain. You’re just trying to get your excuses in early. You’re not going to lose because of the media, you’re going to lose because Republican rule has led to a costly and unnecessary war, a financial crisis, ever greater numbers of Americans without healthcare, the ideals of America sullied with torture and constant abuses of executive power.
299. I know netter buskers than Billy Bragg. The irony is, lovely fella that Billy is, if he didnt have his ‘political’ niche he’d be playing pubs within a 20 mile radius of his house, if he was lucky.
237 Matt I have two accounts with HBOS I went to use my credit card today for £180.00 and it was declined, I then went for my debit card with several K in it, and it was also declined I phoned head office and they said they had technical problems,
my arse sorry Jack,
I think they were trying to stop the money leaving the bank If the bail out in the USA is passed in the early hours HbOS shares will rise, at the moment there is a 9 billion shortfall in the bid price from Lloyds and the HBOS share price If the shares don`t get near the bid price, they will be nationalised by the weekend
I withdrew all monies from the local branch today,but where do I put it? probably the Post Office guaranteed by an Irish bank When is our Great Leader going to wake up, when there is no money left in the country
[289] - “some people are making that choice because it makes sense financially which cannot be right.”
You’re right, it cannot be right, because it isn’t.
The lone parent element of Tax Credits is worth £1770.25 per year, or just under £150 pcm. I’d wager there weren’t many places you could find to live on your own for that little. Consequently a couple would save more money by living together (in saved rent alone) then they would lose from the lone parent element of Tax Credits.
It looks like just a way for Cameron to imitate Brown and bribe the all important swing voters, by repackaging this help for lone parents as a penalty on couples. It stinks, just like the 10p tax change did.
I thought Cameron did extremely well. What I particularly liked was his firm commitment to detailed policies to resolve all our problems, social as well as economic.
New AP/Gfk national poll :
McCain 41% .. Obama 48%
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AP_POLL_PRESIDENTIAL_RACE?SITE=CASRP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
295. Sure, nothing is ever really that simple. I actually think the Zanu psychology started with the first technological holocaust of the Somme and then crystallized after WWII. Advancing technology plus natural human wickedness conflicting with cultural idealism leads certain types of people to a cultural self-hatred.
I think you can see the same thing in art, music, architecture as well.
I haven’t had chance to see the speech yet, but I did somehow manage to see bits of the news on BBC, ITV and Channel 4.
Re the focus groups that each conducted, all of the BBC group had something negative to say about Cameron; ITV’s group were a mixed bunch and Channel 4 managed to find a group in Reading that were bordering on enthusiastic for Cameron.
Overall, I see no reason why Cameron won’t be PM come the next election, unless something drastic happens to Labour or the economy.
The more Cameron is on our screens the better the Conservatives will do. Can’t wait til the general election campaign when people get to see Cameron and Brown side by side every day (hopefully actually side by side in a live debate!) - Brown really does pale into insignificance when compared to Cameron, on every level.
307. Maybe it started with the fact that Western countries, like all countries, have actually have done some very awful things in their past. The problem with much of the right is that they don’t see these bad things, or they like to downplay them. The problem with the left is that they don’t see the good things, or like to downplay them.
303 - You withdrew ALL your money from the local branch? They had that much cash on site?
I presume it must have been over £35k …
Otherwise you seem to be arguing that the Irish Govt is a safer guaranteur of funds than the UK!
I asked this earlier - who is the guaranteur for the Irish Govt?
304.Sorry, but it is correct, and some couples are making that choice.
Sitting in T3 waiting 4 a flight to malaysia. Just time to note that i agree almost completely with nickP. Ugh! Is this early middle-age? I’m only 45!
Apparently a large proportion of HBOS shareholders are also Lloyds shareholders, so the actual price may not be that important to the deal going ahead.
303. I have a cedit limit in excess of £10K with HBOS, no pronlems yet!
303.Dizzy thinks highlighted it this morning. Halifax cash machine problems?
I have a credit limit in excess of £10K with HBOS, no problems yet!
Labour Home silent on DCs speech; LDV some for and some against. Methinks the Labour silence speaks volumes. He still rattles them and they still haven’t come to terms with reality. DC has changed politics.
310.Well it looks like it won’t be the European Bank if that is what they were hoping, other leaders calling for the same route should wait to find out if that safety net is going to be there to catch them first.
Intersestingly, I think Cameron needled UKIP with the referundum pledge on the European union and indeed this could make UJIP & some more moderate BNP change votes?
[311] - Sorry, but unless we are talking about different Tax Credit systems, you are wrong.
Please tell me which Tax Credits I need to apply for so that I will be £1000s of pounds better off than I am.
I see the ‘Broken Society’ was back on Cameron’s agenda. Perhaps a good time to remind ourselves of what Boris Johnson had to say about it:
“If you believe the politicians, we have a broken society, in which the courage and morals of young people have been sapped by welfarism and political correctness.
“And if you look at what is happening at the Beijing Olympics, you can see what piffle that is.”"
New CNN/OPR polls for :
Florida
McCain 47% .. Obama 51%
Minnesota
McCain 43% .. Obama 54%
Missouri
McCain 48% .. Obama 49%
Nevada
McCain 47% .. Obama 51%
Virginia
McCain 44% .. Obama 53%
Crosstabs to follow.
319. UJIP = UKIP
321. Labour have over-taxed the English and subjected us to a system that is communist in its ideals. The money has been redistrubuted at the expense of hard working families.
280
Not true Gary Newman is a staunch Tory! However not to good a choice for the party of law-n-order (?) as dear Brian will soon be visiting his son in the nick.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3021591/Otis-Ferrys-mother-concerned-at-how-hell-cope-with-prison.html
301- Socrates, you’re conflating two distinct issues in an illogical effort to discredit my argument about the media. Let me spell out the logical flaw thusly:
You say that the American media are on balance unbiased. This is so because the Republicans are bound to lose because of unpopular policies.
Do you see the problem here? The one statement has nothing to do with the other! It is possible for the media to be biased AND for Republican policies to be unpopular! In fact, both are true. The unpopularity of Republican policies has no relevance to the validity of first statement.
We shouldn’t really need to beat this dead horse again, but you and I both know that Fox News and talk radio are a small segment of the overall media environment in which left-wing opinion, and left-wing opinion masquerading as journalism, overwhelm the few conservative voices in the wilderness. Polls showing overwhelming support for Democrats among journalists is indirect but uncontrovertible evidence of this statement.
You should revel in your side’s media dominance, not attempt to obscure it. Heaven knows that if my side’s viewpoints were trumpeted by the vast majority of mainstream media sources, I would see the unfairness but would also be tempted to enjoy it and would certainly not attempt to deny it. I can admit, for example, that the right enjoys media dominance in Italy and derives great benefit from it. Is it really so hard for you to admit that the left enjoys the same benefits in the U.S. and the UK?
295: I always like to discussing issues with S&S as he’s in a very different part of the spectrum from me, but he’s genuinely interested in other points of view. To respond to this one (and the more vehemently-expressed ones by other posters): I’m sure it’s true that the Holocaust and the Nazi/Fascist experience has led many of us to recoil from militant nationalism to an extent greater than before.
But there’s more to it than that. Nationalism in its us-vs-them forms implies that the most important thing about us is our nationality: our country is best in everything, and usually right in all disputes, and even when it’s wrong we owe it our first loyalty because we are inseparable from it. Various attitudes follow from this: large-scale immigration is bad, because it dilutes our nationality; flying the flag on all public buildings and having lots of national history lessons is good, because they reinforce it.
There is both a socialist and a libertarian critique of this. The socialist view is that the most important thing is our collective happiness as a human race: the objective is maximising human satisfaction, regardless of nationality: it’s therefore more important to drill a water hole in Zambia (which saves lives) than improve a motorway in Britain (which gets us to work 5 minutes faster). The libertarian view is surely that people are all primarily individuals, and it denies their personal freedom to see them primarily as (say) British. So the individualist’s test of whether an immigrant is welcome should depend on what he’s like and what he knows, not on what nationality he is.
It’s a parody of these positions to deduce that one should object to national traditions. Morris-dancing, tea, real ale, etc. aren’t things that any sensible leftie objects to, and I’m just as proud of Britain’s stand in 1940 as the keenest patriot. But we do feel uneasy at flag-waving nationalism, because of the baggage that it often brings with it. My idea of an ideal Britain is one that is identifiably attached to its traditions, while offering an interesting choice of alternative cultures as well. Monoculturalism just misses out on half the fun of our diverse planet.
309. The hatred is irrational and extreme in my experience. When they say “New Britain”, they mean everything. Any aspect of British life older than about 1950 they want to replace, and “replace” is just a softer word for “destroy”.
Labour with the support of LD’s has been focused on making this country a prisoner of the public sector rather than allowing the private sector to thrive.
320.Timothy, forget the Labour figures and tax credit office, go out and speak to people.
310 The money I withdrew was in a business account with no guarantees. The Irish goverment have guaranteed all money it doesnt have to be a savings account
CNN story to the polls :
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/index.html
This is looking bad for Cameron:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/3117698/Tory-Party-Conference-MRSA-death-shows-NHS-should-change-says-David-Cameron.html
320.And the fact that you talk about 1000’s rather than 100’s of pounds speaks volumes…
[330] - ChrisD, I am people, I am in receipt of tax credits, I have a Maths degree, I know what I am talking about.
33 - By Rosa Prince, Political Correspondent…
Next
302. Yes - Bragg is a windbag of modest musical talent. A clever self-publicist, though.
335.Timothy, what has a maths degree got to do with it?
322. Hills were 6/4 on Florida earlier. take it now.
Alan Johnson’s spokesman:
“Alan sent a two-page letter personally addressed to David Cameron in his hand-writing, which expressed how sad he was to hear of the difficult time Mr Woods had been through, and of the distressing circumstances of his wife’s death.
“In fact, in his email Mr Woods does not claim his wife died of MRSA, he says that the death certificate specifically states that MRSA was not a causal link.
“Alan then went on to set out the options available to Mr Woods if he wished to make a formal complaint - and it is entirely proper and sympathetic for him to have done so.”
“Mr Cameron has been fairly creative with the way he has interpreted the correspondence.”
o/t - Quelle surprise…
http://www.economist.com/vote2008/
333. Oh big bloody deal.
The significance of these past 3 weeks is that we see Roger/Gabble/Jonathan and the routed footsoldiers of the Left rallying to Browns banner and digging in for the duration.
Gordon has done just enough to preserve his position and no where near enough to stop Cameron winning a good majority or save poor old Nick P.
The big winner of the conference season is Gordon (personally). The big losers are Labour MP’s with majorities between 5-10k.
Tories… pretty well unchanged. Libdems…..who really cares?
Very off thread. Austin Healey for Strictly Come dancing should be backed at anything above 3/1. The BBC 2 prog tonight confirms he can do latin as well as Ballroom. (Craif the most critical judge described him as amazing, which he very rarely does) After Saturday he will be 7/4 or shorter. Get on now.
341 - lol, one last push and McCain can take Slovakia!
Poll seems to be slightly undermined by:
USA: McCain 21 Obama 79
327. & 326 - I thought you were the same person despite you posting within a minute!
Nick you obviously think Brown is a bag of bollocks as PM, you should just plunge the knife mate! Even if you cannot become a Labour peer - I am sure you could become an independent one, in an interim house of Lords before an elected one. Labour are deminished by Brown and a new leader might even propose you as interim H of L material given your non-political experience. Beyond that I am sure a Labour party looking for an elected senate member with experience from the world.
326. Now you’re the one being illogical. Just because most journalists vote Democrat doesn’t mean they are particularly biased in their reporting. It is possible to be objective and neutral, while still holding a personal point of view. Of course, that point of view will seep out occasionally, but there’s a difference between that and flat out batting for one side. It’s the different between Wolf Blitzer and Keith Olbermann.
And for the record, I didn’t say that the media must be balanced because the Republicans policies are unpopular. I believe they are basically balanced because of my own judgment. Even if you have more newscasters saying something like “Obama is inspiring”, it doesn’t make anywhere near as much difference to the race as a major news channel running a story saying his school was a radical Muslim madrassa. Equally, CNN and MSNBC will run negative stories about Obama (like Jermiah Wright). How often is it that Fox runs a negative story about McCain (unless they are criticising him for being too liberal)?
Plus I don’t buy the idea that the dominance is even that big. Virtually all the biggest political radio shows are hard right-wing. Fox is the biggest news channel. For every New York Times there’s a Wall Street Journal. This is just Republican paranoia.
328. I think there’s a degree of parallax error here. We’re always more aware of the extremists of the other side of the fence than those on our own.
Tim, u r wrong about tax credits. They favour single parents bigtime. I know this personally! Am getting on a plane now, will give u data 2moro…
333
If the NHS is so great why does it need 4 seperate bodies to handle complaints,because there are so many ?
347. I was an extremist on the other side of the fence, more old labour than Zanu. That’s how I know that under the surface the modern liberal-left is inverted racist, anti-white and anti-christian.
327- Dr. Palmer, I don’t think you’d give rise to nearly the amount of venom that is produced here in your honor if you were not a Labour MP, since you rarely say anything nearly as condemnation-worthy as much of what is posted here (among those with whom I disagree, naturally!). I enjoy discoursing with you and many others of the left here because you offer knowledge and insight and give no hint of dishonesty as far as I’m concerned.
Of course, a wall cannot be built around a country and to do so would be folly. After all, who wants to live in the next North Korea? It is always a balancing act between maintaining essential and meaningful tradition and enjoying the benefits of what the rest of the world has to offer (much as Socrates suggested above). Few people seem very able to make this important distinction, though (particularly those who are politically inclined and involved), and I fear that once traditions have been obliterated by well-meaning socialists, libertarians, or whoever, they will not be resurrected. This is the extreme danger I see in what I would call self-loathing ideologies, the “self” being the culture or country from whence one came. All that said, your view is not inconsistent with my own, although we likely perceive the envergure of the dangers differently.
NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
Are All PBers Cross Dressers And What Are The Implications For The Conservatives Poll Lead.
NP is a sound enough person, shame for him he is linked to labour!
If he was more independent and indeed decided to find a more appreciate home, he would be pleased by the warmth.
[348] - I look forward to it seanT, but for now I remain dubious.
346 - I would support the idea that everyone assumes the media is biased against them. Sometimes they are right but usually the media follows the people rather than the other way round. Very few media organisations supported Labour in the 1980s as they were unelectable crackpots. Very few outlets supported the Tories between 1995 and 2005 as they had become unelectable.
This year we are seeing the lag between public opinion and the media in realising Gordon Brown is unelectable. The BBC is a special case for concern as they recruit from a tiny section of Guardian reading class. This MUST be changed. Must be.
Eight out of ten to Gabble for working with the thin gruel he has been fed after Cameron’s speech. But as I’ve said, it’s the hope that will break you in the end, Gabble….
The hope that voters will forgive Labour.
They won’t.
The hope that things can turn round before the election.
They can’t.
The hope that Brown will find a way to engage with the popular mood.
He won’t. Take it from us Tories. We’ve been there in the nineties. Just glide into quiet acquiescence of the inevitable.
It’s for the best….
I just got the chance to see Cameron’s speech for the first time; I’m now watching it again. He is an AMAZING politician. Obviously we’ll have to wait to see if he’s a good Prime Minister but I can’t believe that anyone with a fuctioning brain doesn’t think he will be PM. Personally I think he’s a better politician than Blair and I think he’ll be a much better PM. If this speech doesn’t give him a massive boost in the polls then I will completely despair at the intellect of the nation.
322 CNN polls seems to confirm Quinnipiac. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to remain a McCain optimist
I’m very mixed on Cameron’s speech. I don’t think the lightweight charge will stick though, there was plenty of substance, in some ways too much.
The good parts, the tone and delivery were right for the time, he looked and came across as statesmenlike and I think that will play well. He made it clear that the educational establishment needs taking on, not before time. He accepted there was a sensible balance in terms of tackling youth crime and it was not just about tougher this that and the other.
The bad parts, his cheap attack on libertarians, people whose votes he needs. The pointless marriage tax break pledge, and his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, a decision I simply cannot understand. He also sounded quite lecturing regarding ‘responsibility’ in the same way Labour politicians are. Almost as if he does not really trust people either. I found that a bit patronising.
The feeling I got was this is a man who will do enough to win the election, but as to if he will actually change anything when in office, I’m not convinced. As someone who wants a governemnt who sets people free, there are a number of things in this speech that worry me in terms of the sort of Governemnt Cameron will lead.
355. David Roe - I read the Guardian and also the Times because they have the best Sudoku! The majority of the UK press are currently anti Gordon Brown and I have not noticed the BBC is particularly supportive of him either.
358- It’s all much easier for those of us who were never McCain optimists. I’ve said here before that, in the long run, a McCain presidency would be much more damaging to the prospects of the GOP than simply letting the Democrats run everything, lock, stock and barrel, for a few years. On the other hand, I’d like to see the GOP keep congressional bleeding to a minimum, and the jury’s still out on that one.
Somebody is laying £53k+ at 1.38 on Betfair at present!
362. On Obama of course.
Brown’s argument is laughable- you’re not in government so that means you won’t make a good government.
I don’t think people cared in 1997 that Tony Blair had no experience of government and I don’t think they care now.
I think the speech will succeed in making him look more like a statesman- the very fact that people on TV are saying “well, he’s looking a lot more sober and statesman-like” will give people the impression that he is.
Interesting to hear the comments on here. The left are out in force. Just because you didn’t like what you heard doesn’t mean it was a bad speech. I think if anything Cameron proved how adept a politician he is - this does not bode well for GB or Labour in an election. They would be doing so much better with Alan Johnson or Jack Straw, affable and innocous.
I do think the BBC have been a disgrace. I noted last week that one of their supposed floating voters always voted labour in their words. Now I would think the first question you would ask to find out if someone is a floating voter or not is do you always vote for one specific party?
Is this thread still alive?
Has he cooked his goose in Scotland by praising Maggie Thatcher, or did he calculate that it didn’t matter? If so, what are the implications for the devolution arguments?
Matt
I’m not a fan of senior Tories decision to offer cross-party support to the Gordon Brown’s management of the “Credit Crunch” or more appropriately Credit Correction.
If, their aim is to show “statesmanship” this can only be achieved by campaigning for Gordon Brown’s resignation, which has a proven track record of success i.e. Bill Clinton’s impeachment delivered the electoral defeat of Al Gore in the following election. I’ve always been of the opinion that whomever had stood as the Republican presidential candidate for that GE would have won. The defeat of the Al Gore is vastly more impressive because the American economy was tanking along under the Democrats (fuelled by easy credit, which in hindsight looks a bad way to achieve GDP growth).
Secondly, by offering cross-party support for Gordon Brown will only taint senior Tories message of difference and improvement in choosing them. It is certain that McCain’s presidential campaign has taken a significant knock from his association with George Bush’s “bailout” for Wall Street; he has become contaminated by his acts of inter-party support. I seriously doubt offering cross-party support for Gordon Brown is going fare any better!
Of course, the GE will not be for another 2 years and such positioning can be corrected in the fullness of time. Anyway, unlike the America, which is through the worst of its economic woes Britain is only just getting started! As this situation appears switching to an alternative strategy against the Labour Party will guarantee victory!
I felt it was a flat speech. His objective of sounding statesmanlike was just about met. But there was the basic problem of portraying himself as the “man with a plan” without saying what was in the plan! This loosed once more those nagging doubts Cameron’s vacuity on policy.
That said, I was impressed with Osborne earlier this week on the economy and public finances. Overall, the Tories have pretty well this week, but not great. My guess is that the net impact of the conference season will be status quo ante with a marginal poll bounce for Labour.
Resounding thumbs up from Wapping.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece