Is Labour doing worse in the marginals?
October 4th, 2008UPDATED
ICM marginals poll suggests a big Tory majority
After the euphoria in the Labour camp following recent poll improvements an ICM survey of 192 Labour-held marginals for the News of the World will bring them back down to earth. For it suggests that the party is set to lose 164 seats to the Tories at the general election. and that Cameron’s Conservatives will have a majority of 78. That is on top of any seat losses-gains in the battles with other parties, notably the Lib Dems and SNP.
Taking the straight mathematics a lead of 20% in a standard national voting intention poll would be required to produce a majority Labour losses to the Tories on this scale. This morning ICM survey for the Guardian had a margin of just 12% - so that suggests that something different might be happening in the key battle-ground seats.
The boss of ICM, Nick Sparrow, is quoted as saying: “This poll clearly shows voters in marginal seats across the country judging Labour even more harshly than they are across the rest of the country. There is also a steady development. In April we had a 9% swing which gave the Conservatives 131 seats. This time it’s 11.5%, which translates into 164 seats..This shows the Conservative Party’s tactic of targeting voters in marginal seats is clearly working, exaggerating what is already a considerable national swing.”
In many ways this is not surprising. The Tories have been ploughing a lot of extra resources into the key constituencies and, of course, there’s the experience of what happened with Labour in 1997. Then the Labour swing was greater in the marginals resulting in a bigger victory than the overall national voting move suggested.
So not good news for Brown.
UPDATE: Having looked further at the poll detail I think that the News of the World have been premature in extrapolating ICM’s findings into a 78 seat Tory majority. The survey was confined to LAB>CON marginals and did not cover LAB>LD and LAB>SNP seats where there are likely to be changes. The central point remains: the poll suggests that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in LAB>CON marginals than in the country as a whole.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Tory majority halved since last marginals poll.
Tories on the slide - majority cut in half.
The last marginals poll published in September (fieldwork 22nd July and 4th August) predicted a tory majority of 146:
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=2939&perma=link#
oh Gabble, you were doing so well at the end of the last thread. Now you spoil it with meaningly gobble
The NOtW poll amounts to a tory lead of 12%.
A mere 2% swing to Labour over the next 18 months will wipe out the tory majority.
re 1. Not by ICM Gabble. You can only compare surveys from the same pollster.
3. lol - ‘meaningly gobble’
re 4. Yes it amounts to a lead of 12% - in seats currently held by Labour - that’s why this is seriously bad news.
1. Ru totally thcik or what. Repeating rubbish just adds to the smell!
I agree with Gabble. Labour’s biggest danger now is complacency.
re 8. Being fair to Gabble there are a number of Tory posters I could name who talk even greater rubbish.
6 - yes, I made a typo
But I am happy to clarify now
meaningless cr@p
I posted this at the end of the last thread:
“As to the suggested Conservative majority of 78 perhaps the NOTW has calculated in by taking the present number of Conservative MPs and addding the predicted 164 gains from Labour.
If they haven’t allowed for Conservative gains from the LibDems then the notional Conservative majority needs to be increased by around 40 to 60. There would also be the likelyhood of a few more Conservative gains from Labour higher up the list than 192.”
Stick with it Gabble. Every bit of support that helps keep Brown in place until the GE is fine by me.
10. Name names then Mike.
10. Maybe - I try not to be one of them - but the man keeps on doin it. Maybe its just l8 and I’m crabby!!
Gabble, how come you have so much time to spend spinning nonsense on here? It’s as if you’re being paid by the Labour Party.
RE, the poll, It is no surprise. I work in an local battleground Association that has been dead for years but is now buzzing again sending out lots of litreture and getting local press coverage on the same scale of the Labour MP. Got to have an effect.
Reposted from prev thread…..
USA - it is standard practice for the LD leaning management here to ‘up’ Obama but the idea that he can win places like Texas is nonsense! Obama has a good chance in the polls but McCain still has a real chance when it comes to the real voting and I expect McCain to win! Freedom for America!!!
UK - yes Labour is coming right back into it and Ave it currently says Con 38 Lab 33 which gives Lab a sniff of the hung parliament!!! LDs will lose probably half their seats, SNP will gain one or two off Lab at most - but con are nailed on to be the biggets party but not necessarily an overall majority!! Gordon comfortable to the GE - never a threat to his position.
And just to convince you it is me……
Gabble = LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLL!
Rasmussen will be changing their party id for polls for the coming week to Dem +6, up from +5.4% for the last week :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_party_weighting_targets_39_3_democrat_33_3_republican
re 14. The worst offenders have had quiet emails from me. One has had the right to publish instantly taken away completely.
Repetitious asinine comments will be clamped down on.
ICM - “In April we had a 9% swing which gave the Conservatives 131 seats. This time it’s 11.5%, which translates into 164 seats..”
Gabble - “Tory majority halved since last marginals poll.”
Perhaps we should have bets on:
How many mobile phones Gabble breakes.
How soon will Gabble undergo spontaneous human combustion.
17
Your UK post is bizarre if you are Ave it 08 38/33 is in no poll this side of christendom.
10/19 just about to check my e-mail!!!!
19 ‘One has had the right to publish instantly taken away completely.’ I think we know who that is!!!!
I think that the Marginals are going to go more heavily than elsewhere to the Conservatives. I have maintained for ages that the standard guff about the Conservatives needing to be ahead by 10% to get a bare majority is way off. I think that 7% will be enough with differential swing in the marginals. I also think we need to look at those seats that went down in 1997 that would previously have been considered quite safe Conservative seats. I think seats like Southgate which are already Conservative could zoom completely out of reach. Also looking at say Harlow which will probably go at a canter. I think the next election is going to be hard to nail down in seat terms what exactly is going to go on. I think we are in for some big surprises.
Gabble isn’t as bad as a number of Tory posters and it’s rather amusing to see someone trying to ramp up the desperate Labour party.
21 MTF sorry my post is unclear - I think thats what it will be at the GE June 2010! Remember 1979, maggie was miles ahead and then it closed towards the end, Gordon will keep his core 31% of public sector, unamrried mother etc (that sort of core did not exist in 1983) and will pick up a few others…
Of course I hope for a Con landslide like you!!!!
Gabble, a paid party hack; or Mike Smithson’s alter-ego?
This is no surprise whatsoever.
I have played the spreads with the aim of bailing as the Tories nudged a majority of 70 on the figures. I reckoned after that people would get nosebleeds because they are obsessed with this statistical idea of how many % the Tories need to ahead.
In the words of the philosopher H Simpson: ‘people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Fourteen percent of all people know that.’
On the thread I also suspect that marginals have a higher proportion of voters affected by credit crunch, etc aware they can make a difference. Also the arrogance of the incumbency factor turns the floaters off a lt.
23 yes a 5% swing will be enough……
Just noticed that at the time of submitting there is a spread of 0 on Conservative seats on Spreadfair, which should mean a quick buck if you can guess the next movement correctly.
Me, I’m happy with my positions as they are and buying at this point would mean shifting my average (currently 338.6, which I’m happy to wait on since I expect them to go even further as the recession bites) upwards since they seem to always take the oldest trade as the one that is being closed when you close a position.
Gabble faster than a speeding bullet, at least two threads have had you in 1st place this week, must be something in the technology.
As for Brown, even Mandleson cannot unpick the damage which will hit labour as the economy implodes.
Another excellent poll for the Tories. Little more to say, really.
Now that the dark nights are here, the weather turning, unemployment is set to rocket and all the other horrible things that happen in a recession, plus the Prince Of Darkness turning up to stir things up, I think Conservatives can just sit back and watch the fireworks! I wonder if the next NotW/ICM marginals poll in April 2009 will show a 200 seat Labour loss?
The polls are important. But how the polls are reported is also important, as public opinion not only determines the polls but is also influenced by the polls and how they are reported.
I have detected a significant public move back towards Labour on the basis of the poll showing the Tory lead over Labour being cut to 12%. This move occurred despite Mike’s caveat that there was no intention to vote consideration in this poll. The BBC in particular, Crick et al, have reported this poll as an encouraging sign for Labour and I think the public are considering that the tide may have turned.
But now we have more polls showing that the Tories are still in line for a major electoral victory and in addition the Murdoch press appear to have come out for Cameron. So we have positive Tory polls and positive reporting of these Tory polls.
My money remains on a Tory landslide in the 100+ majority region.
From Politicshome
The BBC reports that Vernon Coaker has been proted and takes on extra responsibilities as Policing Minister.
Phil Woolas has been moved to become the Immigration Minister.
Parmjit Dhanda has been shuffled out of his ministerial position.
How come only Ave it 08 and myself make any sort of sense on this site?
My birth town Sunderland central is the one to watch - I saw its equivalent fall to labour in 1964. The Tories up there have waited a long time and the new seat might just be the first gain of the night.
From previous thread
Maybe this explains who the top Tory was
When Peter picked a peck of pitta …
Could the Taverna Agni be the new Granita? It has already been noted that European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson dined with shadow chancellor George Osborne at the taverna in northern Corfu in August, and Osborne has said he has broken bread with Mandelson before, at Davos earlier this year.
But since when was Corfu the scene of high-powered political meetings? Mandelson has been a keen visitor to the island since banker and philanthropist Lord Rothschild, who owns a swish villa there, began extending his hospitality to the former spin doctor. And Osborne has also been schmoozing with the banking family. He has found a keen fan in the shape of Lady Serena Rothschild, who donated £190,000 to the Conservative party, specifically for Osborne’s office.
What could Osborne and Mandelson be talking of while chewing their calamari? Surely Mandelson, occasional friend of Gordon Brown, would not have been so naughty as to offer advice to Osborne on strategy?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserver/2008/sep/14/celebrity
Barbara Follett replaces Margaret Hodge
34 - It could also be the first declaration of the night. That would be amazing if the first declaration was a Conservative gain.
33 ok i’m worried now!
Mike where’s the e-mail??????
33. Memo to Mike Smithson: E-mail please!
37 - i remember in 1997 when i was labour, and Con had notional majority 33. Con had lost 17 seats (ie their majority) before holding a single seat!! OOps election over!!
1/2/ etc Gabble we have already told you to compare apples with apples.
37. Just watch Anthony King’s face [ assuming the beeb can’t afford anyone better.
42 and see the champagne sent back from BBC HQ to Threshers…
Is it now the PBers feeling that Gordo is here to stay till the next GE.
I have a feeling that thing will go sour once Parliament sits. I still believe that our Great Leader will go before the end of this year.
The following article in the Times should really make his day.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4882571.ece
40 - Yeah I remember that as well, it was a grim night.
I’ve posted on this subject before, but Labour are either in denial or missing the point entirely if they think this is just about the economy and that therefore Brown is their trump card. It is not, and he is not. The great British public are hacked off about virtually everything that Labour have touched in the last 11 years: NHS, schools, crime, immigration, spongers, CRB checks, spin, and I could go on and on and on. Given an objective assessement there’s barely a success story anywhere. If Labour are to have a prayer in the GE they need a brand new narrative and a new leader. It won’t happen and so they are doomed.
Re 9, Charlie2 “I agree with Gabble. Labour’s biggest danger now is complacency.”
43 and see reaction from Hattersley
Wise heads on the previous thread have already mentioned the reason why polls in marginals have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Though I can’t offer any proof - it is just a gut feel - I think that the underlying pattern of voting of the British Electorate is changing in a way that none of us can predict. For example, the oft-quoted tactical unwind is one factor, and the even greater willingness than usual for Conservative supporters to actually turn out and vote.
When you think about it, even allowing for the weirdness of FPTP, it was always a strange model of the electoral system to have the Conservatives needing something like a 10% lead over Labour in order to get a bare majority, whereas a Labour lead of 10% would produce a landslide victory.
“One has had the right to publish instantly taken away completely”
I wondered where Benedict White had got to….until today that is…. Labour got their prince of darkness back, and Pb.C got a prince amongst men.
Does anyone know if he has a blog?
Thinking back to 1997 was it Cecil Parkinson who got the first shift and had to spend the first 45 minutes valiantly telling Paxman that the results would be completely different to the exit polls? I feel sorry for whoever has to do the same job for Labour, it must be the hardest media job you are ever asked to do.
42. It’d certainly get the night off to a cracking start. First seat to declare and the already time to get the champagne out and toast Labours demise!
Think we might be getting a little carried away, though.
If that poll is true then clearly the Tories are doing better in the marginals. a 12% lead nationally would be a swing of 7.5% nationally, if the swing in the marginals is nearer 11.5% then clearly they are doing better there.
Gabble is a gestalt. He’s an emergent property of Labour’s desperation.
He’s like the horror one feels when one looks at Hazel Blears, given form.
Still don’t get this marginals poll. A swing of 11.5% on UNS should produce a majority of about 165, not 78, and getting on for 190 gains, including gains from the LDs…
The 78 majority figure is simply incompatible with the touted 11.5% swing…
Unless the dopes have subtracted the Tory seats, say 403, from 325 and calculated this as a 78 majority, instead of twice that….
12. You’re predicting the LDs down to twenty seats? Don’t see it.
re 55. Are you calling Nick Sparrow a dope Rod? He is the most respected figure in the UK polling industry.
What’s happening is simple - ICM are finding that the swing is greater in marginal seats than in others.
@55:
This isn’t a UNS calculation, is it? It’s specifically swing in the marginals, which one would expect to underperform, since by their nature, some will swing Labour against all the odds.
That didn’t take long.
The Guardian has the story that Mandelson has recently been seen having several dinner meetings with George Osborne in Corfu.
Granita Mark 2?
& 55. If you want to use that sort of description of Sparrow again then please go to another site.
56 - No he is predicting LD’s to lose up to 20 seats which is entirely reasonable. Every seat that goes from an opposition party to the majority party increases the majority by 2. So an extra 20 seats is an addition of 40 on the majority.
Re 50, SimonStClaire “I wondered where Benedict White had got to….until today that is…. Labour got their prince of darkness back, and Pb.C got a prince amongst men.”
Kind words indeed! I have been busy.
“Does anyone know if he has a blog?”
Might have.. who’s asking?
51. Well just look at all those gormless Labour ministers that turned up for the local election coverage back in May. One after one, each of them was rendered virtually spechless at just how terribly Labour was doing. At the election we’ll be able to magnify that shoch and embarassment ten fold. Plus we’ll have a grumpy Anthony King. We’ll have Red Robbo desperatly trying to look for some good news for the Labour party and failing. We’ll have BBC repoters across the country virtually in tears. And we’ll have the prospect of Brown having to attend his own declaration, face up to the defeat, then head to London to face up to his defeat, then go to the Queen to tell her he’s been defeated and then get the removal lorries pulling into Downing Street to see him off. It will be an election to savour. Someone will hopefully record the highlights and put them on YouTube.
If the polls say Obama can win Texas but the consensus is he cannot, the polls may be over estimating Obama.
There is a danger of a UK 1992 delusion.
The media want a Obama win so badly they may be deluding themselves. More, there is a possibility that many will not admit they would vote Obama. Obama’s call to “get in the face” of Republican and undecideds may lead some to pretend support Obama for a quiet life.
Re 51, James, yes that must be a dreadful job. That said Labour have had to do it during the locals.
@60:
He only said ‘dope’. It’s not like he accused him of liking Nick Clegg or some other cardinal sin.
And another thing. Those of you fortunate enough to be within travelling distance of White Hart Lane tomorrow should nip down and witness the next stage of the Mighty Tigers London tour 2008. After that the local JobCentre will have a new client, Mr Juande Ramos. Perhaps the new Employment Minister, McNulty will interview him personally.
Don’t laugh. Stranger things have happened this week.
60. Think he was probably talking about the News of the World rather than ICM?
@64:
Isn’t the argument that, if there were to be a spiral of silence around Obama, it would have manifested during the primaries?
44. weathercock. I agree. This is not over yet. Brown’s position is more secure and the old hands of NuLabour are lining up behind him as they see the electoral risk unfolding.
But it’s a potentially dysfunctional mix of players without Blair, the smooth master, to level their jagged edges.
The plan now is clearly to back Brown to the hilt and my guess is that he will lead Labour into a 2010 election. But Mandy is not popular and for all his political skills, his appointment could backfire.
Campbell on the other hand gives Labour a better chance and should not be misunderestimated.
#55 Rod
I raised this issues in my #12 comment.
#56 Corporeal
I said that if Conservatives gains from the LibDems have not been taken into account then the notional Conservative majority would need to be increased by around 40 to 60 ie gaining 20 to 30 LibDem seats. Allowing for LibDem gains from Labour and a few LibDem losses to the Nationalists then that would leave 40 to 50 LibDems MPs.
57. Mike, tell Sparrow someone has made a boo-boo. Probably a simple arithmetical error that no-one has sense-checked before releasing it. 164 Tory gains do not translate into a 78 majority..
66 LOL remember ‘the LD leaning management here’
65 - Yes but locals are not the same. Most of the people losing their jobs you don’t know personally. The people put up on General election night will usually know personally a sizeable number of people in the process of learning they have been fired. I wouldn’t like to be in that position.
67
70. I’ll give until Christmas before Mandy is stirring things up and causing trouble. He can’t help himself. Would be at all surprised if he is the one that weilds the knife on Brown in due course. Frankly, I’ve got absolutely no idea what Brown was thinking of in bringing him back, but hey, if Brown wants to destablise the government further by being stupid, I’m not gonna complain.
60. my, your touchy tonight…
57 - But surely Crosby is correct. If an 11% overall swing should produce a Conservative majority 165, how can the marginal seats be swinging more heavily if the end result is only 78?
In any event, I thought there was overwhelming evidence that such polls of multiple marginal seats are highly unreliable.
The Mail are speculating on the return of Blunkett in a further reshuffle in the New Year
that would just be beyond fiction
76. With Mandy back Iexpect serious problems by Halloween:))))
76
Is it inconceivable that Mandy’s game plan is.. get back into Govt first, after a while disclaim his knighthood and parachute into a safe Labour seat,win, knife Gordo and its Mandy PM…
RodCrosby’s posts are as enlightening as Gabble’s.
The lefties on this site focus on the minute fluctuations and ignore the trends and weather signs. Fluctuations occur all the time. Lefties tell us about their positive fluctuations but go quiet for -ve fluctuations.
You cannot see the shape of the forest by inspecting twigs.
79. In these pc days i know this is risky but the visually impaired leading the …. springs to mind.
80. Well he is the living dead….
79 lol. brown would have twice appointed ministers who had previously resigned tice.
81 - Yes. Utterly.
81. I know my post at 67 said stranger things have happened but steady on. Take more water with it.
Rod is correct that the seat estimate is incompatible with the swing quoted - very odd. But on the comparative marginals issue, it may be safest to rely on the PoliticsHome survey, since that did weight for demographics in every seat (and had a non-trivial sample too). It showed the Tories well ahead (in fact capturing virtually every marginal they surveyed), but with a national swing similar to the national polls at the time. When they asked the extra question about how people would vote *in their local constituency* (as opposed to who they favoured nationally), Labour and LibDems did slightly better than the national picture.
64 - The polls don’t say Obama is at all likely to win Texas. Polls put him within ten percent - Clinton was twice within five percent. A Democrat could well win Texas in a very good year but would never need to - probably not this year although it could be worth a long odds flutter.
79 I dont think so. Brown knows he is out of his depth and wants New Labour back. He cant handle it.
I fully expect Blair to return.
79 - Yes but the Conservative speech would almost write itself. “We have had a third chance for Peter Mandelson, now a third chance for David Blunkett. At the next election all of them will come seeking one more chance to get it right, but the message is clear, no fourth chance for a fourth rate government!”
Re 69, Martin “Isn’t the argument that, if there were to be a spiral of silence around Obama, it would have manifested during the primaries?”
I thought it did a bit. Am I wrong?
63. I fear the BBC may go into mourning and close down for twenty four hours……
78. Everyone says how unreliable these marginals polls are, but again, I point to the fact that before 1997, they pointed to a Labour landslide, before 2001 they pointed to a Labour landslide and before 2005 they pointed to a very good (but reduced) Labour win. So in for the last three elections, not a bad record.
Morris Dancer on the previous thread. I had to go and ‘do’ so I have only now seen your post. Yes I meant Trillions not Billions. Too hurried as the manager of this establishment was calling me.
81 - I would be the first to admit I know diddly about the internal workings of the labour party (or any other party for that matter) - but I can’t believe that the Labour party would ever, in a million years, elect Mandy as leader.
Re 74 James, “65 - Yes but locals are not the same. Most of the people losing their jobs you don’t know personally. The people put up on General election night will usually know personally a sizeable number of people in the process of learning they have been fired. I wouldn’t like to be in that position.”
Point taken and agreed. It would be unpleasant.
81. Surely he could be PM from the Lords? What a thought.
98
Yes of course.. Yikes!
Still too early for meaningful polls. If this is as good as it gets for Labour, they’re properly screwed.
Remember, during an election campaign the Lib Dems get more coverage which should help them. Not sure if it will now, as Clegg is an idiot.
Brown will be in the press more (bad for Labour) and Cameron too (bad for Labour also).
Given the choice between Brown and Cameron, most people will instinctively move to get rid of Brown. Some will like Cameron, but frankly, it matters not how much. What matters is voting.
Also, congrats to Leeds Rhinos! Hurrah!
98 - I doubt it would be feasible to be PM from the Lords, I think Salisbury was the last to do so in the 19th Century.
96 If you dont know about the Labour party internals, watch In The Thick of It. All will become clear.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thick-Complete-BBC-1/dp/B000NVI29C/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1223157398&sr=1-1
76. GIN. I said that NuLabour have decided to back Brown to the hilt. You say that Mandy might be the one that wields the knife.
Knives, particularly daggers, can be plunged, up to the hilt. So we might both be proved right?
What does Miliband think of the return of Mandy? Or Jack Straw? Or Hapless Harriet? Or the Chipmunk of Love? Fungus the Bogeyman? Cruddas? Perhaps their silence is because they have become hoarse at singing his praises…
How long before a delegation goes to Brown and says - its him or us? The Labour Conference was supposed to have lanced the boil. But instead, the re-introduction of Mandy is injecting pus into the wound.
Lord Mandelson, the necrotizing fasciitis of New Labour.
101, don’t forget Teddy Billsborough from House of Cards. Mandelson may fancy the role of puppet master to a young Blairite.
98 - Though you can be PM from the Lords, I’m not sure the Labour constitution allows their leader to be from the Lords, though I may be wrong.
101. But given the way these jokers trample on democracy, you just never know….. I won’t feel safe until they are booted out and sanity, reason and justice is restored to this land.
59 see post at 35)
101. Yes, and Halifax believed in 1940 that it was impossible to be PM from the Lords in the democratic era.
101 - Not only not feasible, but a constitutional outrage with universal suffrage and a govt solely responsible to the Commons. There will never be a PM in the Lords.
By the way, pleased and unsurprised to see my neighbour Vernon Coaker getting a promotion in the Home Office - tough working-class MP with lots of local credibility on crime issues.
Re 130, Stjohn “Knives, particularly daggers, can be plunged, up to the hilt. So we might both be proved right?”
101 It is feasible. France had an unelected PM last year.
Brown has taken a taste for unelected ministers - and he has found out it is very easy and very cheap. The BBC will even back him.
Re my 112, I did of course mean 103
111- Mr Palmer - any similarly effusive words for Sion Simon?
111 - I’m still hopeful of a new Secretary of State for Feline Protection….
113 - But France has an elected President… rather a different scenario
111 - Isn’t your next opponent his previous opponent?
106, 110. Yes, but this is MANDELSON. And he has Campbell on his team. If anyone can …
Actually, I’d like to see it for the sake of the drama, as long as Labour go down next time.
103. I really don’t know whats going to happen now. I know Mandy won’t be able to help himself when it comes to causing trouble and stirring things up. And all of this burying the hatchet stuff is rubbish (unless they do it in one another heads) But whether that will be Browns eventual downfall I don’t know. I suspect the leadership thing will reach its climax next summer after the euro and local election rout, but I reakon by then Labour might be so weary that they’ll just carry on with Brown until 2010, just like the Tories carried on with Major after their defeat at the 1996 locals. Time will tell.
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
113 - But in France, Ministers are constitutionally prohibited from being MPs or Senators!
Blunkett back in cabinet as well
Potty Toynbee is already writing on CIF wrt the re-shuffle that “This 1997 tribute band is out of tune with our times”
BW….you’re welcome!
121 - LD gain.
Maybe Brown could resurrect another ghost from the past - Derek Hatton, now a property developer of all things. His socialism obviously ran deep.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/fameandfortune/3129837/Fame-and-Fortune-Derek-Hatton-the-militant-capitalist.html
75. Lord Ave it your support is much appreciated. The Supreme Leader, Phil Brown will do “whatever it takes” to ensure the Mighty Tigers stay in the premier league next season. Who knows, in the current spirit of relying on experience Dean Windass may get a game.
111. Unreal - surely you must know this is all just deckchairs on the Titanic
125. A tory creation, if ever there was one.
117- But Britain has an unelected PM … rather a different scenario.
Also Britain has Labour, a party that has a 80 seat majority with 36% of the vote and 20% of the electorate. They dont care about democracy, they care about Power. When you realise that, they will do everything possible to hold on - and that includes morally distasteful, the outrageous, the borderline illegal and then some.
123 - I think (God ‘elp me) that Polly is right. It just feels tired.
As a Mandelson fan, though (I love his feline sense of humour and ability to dismember that self-satisfied a*se John Humphrys on Today), it’s good to see him back. Will be even better when he fulfills his part in the fable of the Frog and the Scorpion and murders Gordon midstream!
O/T - Guido’s take on Sion Simon…
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/sion-simon-made-minister-no-really.html
Wouldn’t surprise me if Blunkett came back. What a terrible signal all this sends though. What does it say about the talent in the Labour Party that Brown is having to bring back all these has-beens and yesterdays men? And what does it say about what will happen to Labour in opposition? The likes of Blunkett and Mandy and Mother Beckett won’t want to be bothered with opposition again. Nor’ will Ali Campbell and Dolly. So what will Labour do when they are in Opposition? They could be stuffed for a decade. Even as bad as things were for the Tories in the mid 90’s at least John Major didn’t have to bring back Nigel Lawson and Cecil Parkinson and Geoffrey Howe. Crazy times!
130. The frog thing from Matthew Parris the other day was brilliant!
61/71. Ah yes of course (I knew I shouldn’t have bothered with that Maths A-level ;))
61/71. Ah yes of course (I knew I shouldn’t have bothered with that Maths A-level ;))
133 - Yes, I should have credited Parris.. meant to… too much rather good local Oxfordshire wine (and that is not a joke!)
129 Britain has an unelected PM already - it is not such a leap to take one from the Lords.
Labour will argue the Peer was chosen by the majority of Parliament and Parliament has a democratic mandate. The BBC will do nothing. Labour will have power of incumbency and everyone else will just have to smart like at every other Labour outrage.
51 - Yes, it was Cecil Parkinson who commented that he was starting to think that the party wouldn’t win a single seat until the first tory hold came through.
81 - What is this thing “a safe Labour seat”?
The Sun gives the reshuffle a cautious nod:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Re 123 Simon “BW….you’re welcome!”
Thank you again!
138. One with a stab-proof back I’d imagine.
131. Guido on Sion - brilliant - that NS article totally sums up how drunk with power they have become - the unwind next year is gonna be pitiful to watch….again and again and again:)
@137:
Are there people in this place persisting in the fiction that the PM is in some way ‘elected’?
How quaint.
139. Note the caution at the end though. Mandelson could seal Browns fate. :0
@139:
Mandelson, of course, is a man who knows all about ‘cautious nods’.
138 “What is this thing “a safe Labour seat”?”
It is called “Bootle”, sire….
I have been instructed by Andrea to provide the first exclusive photograph of the new Deputy Leader of the House of Commons announcing next week’s Parliamentary business
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article78045.ece
143. Wasn’t “Vote Blair get Brown” the tory slogan in the 2005 GE?
132 - actually Cecil final comeback was as Tory party secretary after the 1997 election. One of the most charming politicians I have ever met too.
There was another retread post 1997 when Norman Fowler became Shadow Home Sec.
@139:
Also:
“We only hope he has learned from his past mistakes.”
If you believe that, you’ll believe anything. The Sun will be gagging that Mandy hasn’t learned anything. There’s gold in them there hills.
Re 146, Marquee mark, “138 “What is this thing “a safe Labour seat”?”
It is called “Bootle”, sire….”
but does not Ave it 08, our resident sage have that down as a Conservative gain
139 It depends how you read it, doesnt it!
@151:
Whereas sounder minds still only have it in “probable Tory” you mean?
79 - First Mandy, now Blunkett???!
I can only guess that Brown thinks the other 250-or-so Labour MPs must be so piss-poor as to not be worth bothering with… why else bring back these Ghosts from Scandals-Past?
There again, Brown’s judgement has been shown to be awry of late, so perhaps the rest of the PLP are much better than Brown would have us believe.
Nick Palmer MP et al…. over to you!
When was the fieldwork for this marginals poll conducted?
149 - Cecil Parkinson’s house and gardens are lovely and he serves good bubbly!
I think Blunkett is speculation not fact. There was nothing on the BBC website 15 mins ago.
130 – I have no doubt that Mandy is a shrewd and ruthless operator; the Whitehall bubble and politics in general is certainly set to see more sparks fly than the 5th November.
Even though life just got that little bit more ‘exciting’ I don’t think it’s good news for the country and its future.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3135713/Peter-Mandelson-to-run-Labours-general-election-campaign.html
makes sense, this is why i assumed mandelson had been brought back anyway
148 - Gabble
If Blunkett follows Mandelson, perhaps Blair wont be far behind. Ahh I can see the 2010 Tory election slogan: “Vote Brown, Get Blair!”
Re 153, Martin “Whereas sounder minds still only have it in “probable Tory” you mean?”
Perhaps Simon & Bryant have been introduced as ‘live food’ for Mandelson - let’s hope so.
I think the reshuffle shows just how little political pundits really now. No one predicted the return of Mandy. Cruddas was supposed to be in the Cabinet. The so-called Minister for the Nations post has been predicted for about 10 years but never happens. Most journos know no more than we do, less in most cases.
124 LOL, PS hope you are not feeling too bad at the moment…..
151 secret local Ave it polling says it could be Con gain! PS Sefton Central Con gain Clare Curtis-Tansley-Thomas or whatever your name is Cheerio Cheerio Cheerio…..
All LD supporters = LOL
162 - LOL :-))
“makes sense, this is why i assumed mandelson had been brought back anyway”
Because Mandelson is just so in touch with what the average voter is thinking?
Random query - do the Conservatives get a few free peerages to hand out in order to balance all these extra ministers that Brown has brought in? And if so, who would Cameron offer them to?
I never have understood the an “elected PM” quandary. I am not Labour so I still would not chosen even if they did have a proper contest again Brown. Did not get a chance to elect Major either.
The Blunkett idea is only speculation
If Mandy does head up the election campaign, it shows even more contempt for the country. He clearly wasn’t brought back to help us through the economic turmoil - just to spin, spin, lie and spin
149. I’d forgotten that. I always liked Cecil Parkinson. You never see him on TV now, is he not well? Good to see you posting SBS.
159. Well he could do that without having a starring role. Mandy is the sort of character that should be in shadows anyway. The more the public see of him, the more repulside he appears.
166 - No, because he is a vicious undead creature who fights dirty.
LDs =
L
O
L
(Might have to check my e-mail again….)
Something doesn’t quite add up here
Interviews were conducted across the 192 Labour-held political constituencies (based on next election boundaries) where the Conservatives were in second place, needing a swing of up to 15% to win the seat. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council.
Labour held seats: 348
Labour held seats with Con in 2nd place: 213
Labour held seats with Con in 2nd place with majority of less than 30% : 185 (7 less than the number claimed)
We are really going to have to standardise which set of 2005 notionals the media use you know
159 Hadn’t seen this commented upon before:
“Jon Cruddas, a deputy leadership challenger last year, turned down a ministerial job in the Department for Children, Schools and the Family (DCSF) and instead will take a party campaigning role, leading Labour’s attack on the British National Party.”
A man who clearly needs the massive resources of the Labour Party directed at helping him to save his seat! His private polling must be worrying…
171 - Which I mean as compliment, of sorts
159 Gordon quite clearly said that he was brought back because nation comes before party - for a day it seems until his true purpose is revealed.
Pathetic Brown, pathetic
@163:
The thing is, most journalists have been seriously underestimating Brown’s fundamental weakness. Those in The Village are prepared to give other denizens the benefit of the doubt.
We callous tube-dwellers have been able to see Brown for the broken, weak, talentless waste of meat for what he’s always been.
162 Let history mark this as The Day Gabble Went Slightly Off-Message.
And the people did feast….
170 - He is President of my Conservative Association, last I was at an AGM he was healthy and on good form!
@176:
Give Mandy’s dinner-dates with George Osborne, what do we reckon Mandy’s reasons for coming back are?
They’re clearly not about shoring up Brown (pointless) or saving Labour (impossible), so what?
178 - I’ve always felt that there is evidence of a rather feline sense of humour present in many of Mr Gabble’s posts…
180 Saving New Labour as New Labour I guess
176 - So is Gordon saying that his slogan at the next election will be Country First? Not doing well where it is being used elsewhere is it?
182 or possibly he thin ks his skill at winding up the French will come in handy in the coming conflagration
183 surely a typo
@162:
Maybe that’s it. Mandy just wanted to be ‘close to the meat’.
Who could blame him. We’ve got some of the finest chav-boy rough trade in the world. I’d have had a stomachful of pretty Euroboys by now if I were in his position.
Tacit.
180. I think he wanted a peerage. I wouldn’t be surprised if he made that the price for him returning.
In his interview with the Telegraph Mandy says;
“I helped create New Labour and I don’t want to see it fail. The party and the government must renew themselves and I believe I can help with both.”
1. Notice how many times he uses the “I” word. COmpletely self absorbed.
2. More important, He helped create New Labour and he doesn’t want to see it fail. The governmnet must renew itself. OK, but where is Brown in this? What if Brown can’t renew the government because he isn’t capable. What if Brown is clearing bringing about the death of Mandys personal creation? Will he just sit idly by and let Brown fly the plane into the oblivion? It doesn’t sound like he would from that interview.
There may be trouble ahead….
173 Agree that we need to understand which seats and what notionals but the message of the polll is Labour forecast on these figures to have less than 200 seats. As RodCrosby points out, this would mean a majority overall for Conservatives of more than 78 on most models but it looks as if the NoW assumption is Lib Dems, DUP, SNP, SF, PC and others total seats stay the same and only these marginal seats change hands. That would be a surprising outcome.
(Conspiratorial huddle): C’mon Gabble - tell us what is reallygoing in inside the Labour Party at the news of Mandy’s return! We won’t tell anyone….
168. Indeed, I’ve made this point several times, it’s routinely ignored.
167 I am very confused by the free peerages and political posts Labour has been handing out.
I always thought peerages were given at new year’s honours and the ratio matched the number of seats.
Clearly the British people have a lot of constitutional repair following the next G.E. Britain will continue to fall in the least corrupt charts until confidence and legitimacy is restored.
@192:
Presumably, since Our Gordon hates Mandy, all Fuhrerbunker-denizens, including our mate Gabs, hate him too.
It’ll take him a while to realise we are Not At War With Mandelsonia. We Have Never Been At War With Mandelsonia.
@193:
Now, one of you two is missing the other’s dripping irony. Or perhaps both.
I’m confused.
195. Has anyone seen Gabble and Brown in the same room?
@197:
I’ve seen Gabble *in* Brown in the same room, if that counts?
My post was actually a response to 170 Martin, the numbering system is playing up yet again.
185 “So is Gordon saying that his slogan at the next election will be Country First?”
Wouldn’t surprise me. It would be very apposite - although the spelling may need checking. We used to be ruled by the gentry. But since New Labour, we’ve been ruled by the cun***
I love Mandelson.
200
201
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!!!!!!!!!
@199:
Getting better, Charlie, but you’re still a few numbers out.
201 Is the “love” done with a little pink heart?
And where exactly is this tatoo?
@201:
YOU HAVE ALWAYS LOVE MANDELSON.
MANDELSON IS YOUR FRIEND.
Re 199, Charlie, “My post was actually a response to 170 Martin, the numbering system is playing up yet again.”
That is why I always say who I am replying to, as well as quoting that which I am commenting on…
I’ll make it clear for you then Martin
I’m responding to this post, by SBS
‘I never have understood the an “elected PM” quandary. I am not Labour so I still would not chosen even if they did have a proper contest again Brown. Did not get a chance to elect Major either.’
Mandelson, a Love Poem, by Tractors McBroon
“Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Mandelson’s a c*nt
So I’ll still make him business secretary”
209 - Andrew Motion’s successor is revealed!
Sir Trevor McDonald to leave ITN News.
Surely the most over-rated newsreader in TV history.
Antony Wells thinks that ICM’s numbers makes sense;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
What next for David Milliband? Theoretically he has been stopped in his tracks - does he just take it like a good little sixth former? Or does he say ‘you know what Gordon, f*** you and your twice-disgraced Business secretary, its game on’
Just read over on the Spectator website that there’s a Yougov poll in the Telegraph with a Conservative lead of 14%. Anyone confirm?
211 Do the story justice, man!
BONGGGGGGGGG! Sir Trevor McDonald to leave ITN News.
209/210 LLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!
214 it was today’s poll (45/31/15)
214 - or was that today? Gee it’s late!
@215:
My grandmother will be devastated.
Perhaps they’ll replace him with somebody who seems to have some awareness of where or when he is.
A couple of articles in the Times caught my attention - first signs of the new Labour policies?
Woolas proposes that the Government sets limits on immigration numbers to ““provide confidence to the indigenous population”. Wonder if he got that from “the most right wing manifesto ever” as Blair/Brown proclaimed it?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4882601.ece
Another £12 billion to reduce our civil liberties (no worries about even more public spending there) - lets monitor and record everyones internet & text messaging
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4882600.ece
o/t - Really grim economic news out there…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4882573.ece
211 Bloody eck! I agree with gabble.
Are there 2 Gabbles?!?
220 - I wonder how long it would be before the text messages got lost from the government database.
221. “In a survey of 1,500 people by YouGov, the pollster, 24% said they were “seriously considering” leaving the country to avoid the economic slowdown.”
Mainly tories, I would imagine. Have we underestimated Brown?
“provide confidence to the indigenous population” !!! Wow. From a Labour minister? They’re shoring up the vote against losses to you know who. The tide has really changed on that issue if he feels able to use the word ‘indigenous’.
221 Not O/T at all - the reason for the loss of all those Labour marginals.
“The recession will play havoc with public finances. The Treasury still predicts that the economy will recover next year, growing by 2.25%-2.75%. Barclays Capital believes that GDP will shrink by 0.2%, while Citigroup is predicting a 0.6% contraction.”
and given cars are most people’s largest purchase after a house, these numbers alone signify a big hit to the Govt’s VAT revenues:
“Figures released tomorrow will reveal that new car sales have fallen by a fifth in the past month and are declining at the fastest rate since 1991. Sales fell from 417,000 in September 2007 to about 340,000, the fifth consecutive month of decline.
221 - A great comment by Hugo Rifkin on TimesOnLine link
“Mandelson: Masterstroke or Mistake?”
RK, “On the upside, it’s great news for the housing market.”
What could he possibly mean?
Mandelson’s motive for returning to the fold could be purely personal. He saw that Brussels was coming to an end and like many before him is addicted to the drugs of politics, power and intrigue. Thus he could not turn down this opportunity for one last whiff of that oxygenated atmosphere. Also he may have been irate at GB destroying his hard fought for dream and seeing all his hard work going up in smoke.
With reference to a previous thread of Labour’s bounce being reflected mainly in its core territories, an analysis of the detail of the last fully published ICM Guardian polls show a strong confirmation for this trend in the North of England and Scotland (which are bracketed together as a region). This region also shows by far the highest percentage of people polled who declared that they are not likely to vote.
Also with regard to Cameron’s reaction to GB’s reshuffle, DC has to be careful to keep the momentum that he has worked hard to engender. His silence during the build up and during the first part of the conference season did lose him some of that momentum and handed some to GB.
Momentum once lost is very hard to regain, and it would be skilful over the next 18 months to keep unsettling GB with periodic additions in policy and so preventing NuLab from building any momentum themselves.
224 - Gabble posted “In a survey of 1,500 people by YouGov, the pollster, 24% said they were “seriously considering” leaving the country to avoid the economic slowdown.”
Err…but where would they go?
226 - I think there is now a serious chance that with collapsing economic activity that inflation will serioulsy undershoot target in the medium term. Secondly it is clear that government tax revenues are being severely diminished by the falling activity, which means that any PSNCR figures in the Pre-budget report are likely to prove completely inaccurate. The budget defecit could become a monumental problem.
226 MM - IIRC from way back when car sales are a key indicator, though a lagging one, of economic growth or decline. Irrespective of VAT revenues the effect on employment for skilled workers will be bad as this is added to decline in construction (outside of state funded Olympic preparation). With fallout from financial services 2009 looks like a bad year for employment.
230. Should this be the biggest concern for the Tories. If they do get in with the recessaion carrying on and having to cut spending without cutting taxes, would that seriously dent re-election hopes?
232 - Would have thought the biggest concern ought to be getting elected in the first place - I would hope that CCHQ isn’t hubristic enough to be planning for a second term yet… but it’s got to be a concern to some degree, and is no doubt behind some of the comments one sees around ’scorched earth’ policies from the current government.
231 “way back when”, we used to build those cars! Now it will just cut our imports bill.
234 - We still have a lot of cars made in the UK - not by British companies, but BMW-Mini and various Japanese manufacturers, Ford etc are still producing here. Rumour has it BMW Cowley is cutting shifts…
Gordon Brown has managed to avoid another disastrous By-election (MSP) by making Jack Mcdonnell the envoy to Africa rather than Ambassador to Malawi
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2457235.0.new_role_for_mcconnell_averts_crucial_byelection.php
Sorry not ambassador should have been High Commissioner
232 - It remains to be seen, I think that we will be in a better position to judge nearer the election. I personally think that the Budget defecit could probably be a lot higher than the £100bn that is being bandied about. I think that when you are having to fund 20-25% of central government spending out of borrowing you are in serious trouble. It is clear that the incoming government is going to be in the most seriously constrained circumstances in a generation. It will probably take at least 5 years to start to deal with the defecit. There will probably be no room for significant tax burden reductions in the first parliament of the Conservative government. The spending rounds will probably have to be savage for years. I think that there is a serious likelihood that re-election would be a tough ask in such circumstances. I think though that the best hope for the economy would be for Osborne and Cameron to ignore re-election and just get on with it.
234 UK Car Production
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=376
Ford is already cut shifts and is I think on 4 day working.
238 - I think it also depends on how discredited Labour are, in the event that they lose in 2010. If their reputation for careful handling of the economy has been completely destroyed, as seems possible, then the voters might be merciful to a Tory government going to the country in 2015 on the back of a program of “trying to sort out Labour’s mess”… it’s way too early to say.
237.What, no hat tip for pointing you in the right direction @37?
Sion Simon, Chris Bryant and not forgetting the infamous Tom Watson now in government. A certain irony seeing some of the Brownite rebels who attempted a failed Autumn coup on Blair being rewarded, and just as other potential rebels in Brown’s government are giving the boot.
There will be some unhappy bunnies on the backbenches with these developments.
240 - Oh I totally agree, it is far too early to say for certain and we are dealing with far too many imponderables.
Re 238, James, Ken Clarke often says that Labour governments always run out of money.
Why do they measure success by how much they have spent? Surely it is what you achieve with the money that counts!
“Blunkett set to return to Cabinet as Mandy wrecks Miliband’s leadership bid”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1068766/Blunkett-set-return-Cabinet-Mandy-wrecks-Milibands-leadership-bid.html
243 - The problem though is that they haven’t just run out of money today, but tomorrow and for several years into the future. They are borrowing our future, to fill in the hole in the present which is the result of their past mistakes.
An exclusive undercover story from tomorrow’s Observer front page have unearthed why the Prince of Darkness is back;
“Mandelson: I’m joined at the hip with PM”
Blinking NHS tourists.
246 - That is as frightening if not more so than when you couldn’t get a cigarette paper between Portillo and Hague!!
“Ian Blair: I did NOT resign - Boris Johnson fired me”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1068780/Ian-Blair-I-did-NOT-resign–Boris-Johnson-fired-me.html
248 - Then why did Blair lie on national TV?
Because Ian Blair is a lying toad like his namesake?
250. Old habits die hard.
Re 245, James “243 - The problem though is that they haven’t just run out of money today, but tomorrow and for several years into the future. They are borrowing our future, to fill in the hole in the present which is the result of their past mistakes.”
Yes i know, but they have done that before.
Re 248, Gabble, ““Ian Blair: I did NOT resign - Boris Johnson fired me””
Good. Apart from the fact that he has walked away with a pay off.
Andrew Rawnsley’s column in tomorrows Observer makes a point that I was raising yesterday, everyone is assuming that Mandelson’s return will be seen as a good thing by the Blairites. I am not so sure, not surprised to see Rawnsley report that the reaction of some Brownites was unprintable in Sunday newspaper though.
What really drove Gordon and Peter back together again
“The virulence of his feud with Gordon Brown - there were several years when the two men barely exchanged a civil word with each other - was a source of huge instability during the Blair period. Peter Mandelson once told a friend that he should put a warning notice on his desk: ‘Remember: the Chancellor is mad.’ And Mr Brown was indeed driven crazy by the plots, real and imagined, that he blamed on the other man. Tony Blair never did persuade the Labour party to love his friend. To many, not least in the Prime Minister’s own clan, Peter Mandelson is the Antichrist. The reaction of some of the Brownites is unprintable in a Sunday newspaper.”
Oh, and Gordon Brown is apparently very unhappy at the media reaction to Mandelson’s return and the way its overshadowed his reshuffle?? What the hell did he expect from the Master of spin with a well known love of the limelight! I finally saw the clip of Mandelson being applauded on his return to government office, it was so reminiscent of those scenes when Blair arrived to take up office in No10 Downing street back in 97′ in front of the cheering crowds, not that I am a cynic or anything.
I have just seen a report on the BBC news front page where the PM defends Mandelson appointment
“The national interest must come before party politics, the prime minister has said of his controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson to the cabinet.”
I just get really annoyed at the way Brown attempts to blatantly treat us all as idiots. So I hope we don’t see any contradictory reports or briefings about Mandelson running the Labour GE campaign which would be definitely come under the heading of party political.
250 - The Labour lackey is a cretin; a universally popular decision with the people of London, the Met and the national press both Left and Right and….
The numpty credits Boris with the decision to sack him; go BoJo.
248 Boris couldn’t sack him - he doesn’t have the power. What he could do was state his position and what he intended to do, then it was Sir Ian’ decision on his response. I agree that in an industrial tribunal there could be a case
Reports suggest that discussions had already been had on suspending the Commissioner, possibly arising from Sir Ronnie Flanagan’s investigation, its not rare for a senior policeman to be suspended during such investigations irrespective of guilt, and it’s likely Sir Ian recognised he had lost more than Boris Johnson’s confidence but that of a majority of the MPA. The Daily Mail article that morning couldn’t have helped.
252 - Quite!
Can’t be bothered to check if anyone’s posted this yet. If so, please ignore. If not, please read.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4882571.ece
“Peter Mandelson “dripped pure poison” about Gordon Brown into the ear of a senior Conservative just weeks before his extraordinary cabinet come-back, it was claimed last night.”
Something we can all celebrate:
“Future of Tatler Tory candidate in doubt after party expresses ‘grave concerns’ he is fit to be an MP”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1068756/Future-Tatler-Tory-candidate-doubt-party-expresses-grave-concerns-fit-MP.html
The IoS welcomes the reshuffle:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-brown-wins-the-conference-trick-951667.html
Re 254, ChristinaD “it was so reminiscent of those scenes when Blair arrived to take up office in No10 Downing street back in 97′ in front of the cheering crowds, not that I am a cynic or anything.”
Actually I think you will find it was a deliberate repetition of the return of Churchill as first lord of the admiralty.
Re 257, James, yes it is always the job of a Conservative government to rebuild after the idiocy of a non Conservative one.
re 260, Nick Palmer “The IoS welcomes the reshuffle:”
Well that is a bit of a shocker from such a right leaning paper
260.Desperate straw clutching there Nick.
A thought or 2 on the 78 seat thing - could it be that they (the pollsters) were swinging )as it were) every other possible variable *against* the Tories outside the marginals and within them. Perhaps in reaction to the apparently apocalyptic (for Labour) result. A case of “that can´t possibly be right…” - not bias, but reaction against an extreme result. Otherwise the results as presented (and others have commented) don´t make sense.
On the scale of the swing - is Ashcroft to be congratulated on his targetted campaigning? The effort to improve machinery and quality of campaigning always sounded interesting, rather than just dumping money. Maybe we are seeing proff of why Labour MPs are so scared/furious over the Ashcroft. Obvious caveat - more seats in the survey than Ashcroft has targetted.
Re: Ian Blair. I think that whining that your sacking was “political” when you´ve been the most partisanly political police chief in memory is rather funny. Ian Blair was quite conciously trying to be the Minister of Police in the Labour government.
John Rentoul in IoS has the following to say
Brown said that the new council consisted of “serious people doing serious jobs in serious times”. I couldn’t take him seriously. He reminded me of the large man in dark glasses on the children’s TV show Robot Wars saying of his machine, Plunderbird: “It’s a serious bit of business. We’re going to do some serious damage with it. Because we’re serious people.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-whatever-this-is-it-isnt-serious-politics-951666.html
261 Though in fairness,this (1997-date) non-Tory govt was fairly Tory in a lot of its macro-economics/outlook etc..!
254. ChristinaD (I see you have a new name!) “I just get really annoyed at the way Brown attempts to blatantly treat us all as idiots.”
Isn’t that the case with everything he does? I wonder if anyone has bothered to follow up on those two high profile Brown initiatives announced at the start of last month:
- How many homes have been purchased under the shared ownership scheme?
- How many people have actually had free insulation installed?
I know it’s only about a month since these announcements so perhaps early days. But the problem is nobody ever follows up even after a longer period to expose the fact that far less ever actually happens than was originally announced.
Now today we have another bogus announcement - the £12bn fund to help small businessses across Europe. The amount which would apply to the UK is so small it, like previous announcements, has no chance of making any real impact. Again will the media follow up?
“Ian Blair was quite conciously trying to be the Minister of Police in the Labour government”
He still might be, Gordon’s not finished defiling the cabinat.
267.New name down to the fact that there were complaints about the number of Chris’s posting leading to confusion.
I haven’t looked in too much detail at the News of the World poll, but I think its been suggested that the majority is lower than we would expect because they have only factored in changes in the seats that the poll covers.
I also believe that the seats covered were the most marginal Labour seats where the Conservatives were second.
If that’s the case then, as well as Conservative gains from the Liberals, it won’t include three way marginals where the Conservatives were third in 2005 but are likely winners now.
That would explain a bit more of the difference.
Or I could have misunderstood the details of the poll.
Nick, are you up so late waiting for a phone call from Gordon?
“Nick, I’d like you to join my Government as Minister for Ramping!”
Seriously though, how can you swallow Mandleson’s third coming?
271 Sorry Nick, just realised the way that sounds. Honestly didn’t mean to say that!
What I meant was can you, as a serious politician, accept the return of a man who has had to resign twice over questions of his integrity and honesty?
Re 265, Fitaloon, I laughed at that, very good, and from a Labour loyalist as well.
Gordon Brown is toast, but he just ain’t fully done yet
re 266, patrick “261 Though in fairness,this (1997-date) non-Tory govt was fairly Tory in a lot of its macro-economics/outlook etc..!”
It was then, it was still following Conservative policy, which is why the treasury was in surplus, NHS productivity was still growing, and teachers could actually teach. However it has turned into an expensive pile of urine ridden fetid excrement of a bull.
272. Mandelson was exonerated over the second resignation.
As for the false declaration on the mortgage application, in my opinion, jumping red lights is worse.
Re 272, Paul “271 Sorry Nick, just realised the way that sounds. Honestly didn’t mean to say that!”
Just as well you said that! I was about to post something that on reflection perhaps I should not have…
Mandy may not have broken any rules with the passport case - but he showed very poor judgement
And when your judgement is so suspect, you shouldn’t be part of any government.
He was only given the Brussels job because of his closeness to Blair.
269. Oh I see, good idea.
Per Sunday Times: “Interest rates to drop to 50-year low”
Further to the discussion late last night, could this be further evidence of it being a good time to buy into the Stock Market?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4882348.ece
re 275, Gabble “As for the false declaration on the mortgage application, in my opinion, jumping red lights is worse.”
So obtaining a pecuniary benefit by deception (one of the definitions in the 1968 theft act I believe) is not as bad as jumping a red light?
I see. Perhaps we should see a lot more of the emergency services banged up for jumping red lights and a lot more people guilty of offences under the 1968 theft act get off?
275 Having seen a Cinquecento half destroyed about four hours ago doing exactly that I’d not make that comparison! The point about Peter M is that he wants to be the story the whole time. Part of the reason he gets burned so badly so often is that he is constantly briefing people. He loves his cosy lunches with journalists too much.
That said, I did get the impression that, dishonesty apart, he was actually a semi competent minister, maybe Gordon has made a better move than he realises.
Per Sunday Telegraph: “David Cameron will reshuffle his shadow cabinet after evaluating his MPs through rigorous performance testing.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/3134534/Tory-reshuffle-David-Cameron-to-make-changes-to-Conservative-shadow-cabinet.html
Does anyone know; is Peter making the weather yet?
Re 282, Baldylocks “Does anyone know; is Peter making the weather yet?”
Well its pissing down here, so I assume so
279. Benedict White: “So obtaining a pecuniary benefit by deception (one of the definitions in the 1968 theft act I believe) is not as bad as jumping a red light?”
Correct!
Jumping a red light on, let’s say, a bicycle, endangers the lives of other road users. A far more serious offence, in my opinion.
284 Yes Gabble but what happens if everyone lies on their mortgage applications about their ability to repay? Oh that’s right. They become SUB PRIME mortgages and cause the destruction of the entire world economy. Much better than cyclists jumping red lights…
113 on last thread David Lawrence
Have just read the nonsense that you have written, David, I guess you are an American and an expert on these matters. If anything undoes the Obama presidency it will be the catastrophic mess left behind by the Bushboy and his neo-con friends
McCain, of course, would be as big a disaster as president as he has been as a candidate; lots of u-turns and negative brawling with huge Democrat majorities in Congress.
The American people, having been bitten by the idiot boy and Uncle Dick are not going to be suckered into voting for the cancerous old man and the empty-headed woman.
Malcolm - posting from North Dakota
Re 284, Gabble “Jumping a red light on, let’s say, a bicycle, endangers the lives of other road users. A far more serious offence, in my opinion.”
I think you missed out the context of it, for example I cited the emergency services.
Theft damages the economy, and by implication the jobs of everyone.
Re 286, Malc “The American people, having been bitten by the idiot boy and Uncle Dick are not going to be suckered into voting for the cancerous old man and the empty-headed woman.”
You jest surely? Firstly I do not agree with your characterisation of McCain, but secondly I fully expect the US public to do things that the rest of the world would see as daft, as is their right.
Not even a couple of weeks ago cabinet ministers were publicly bemoaning the ‘political cabinet meeting’ banging on about the Tories rather than positive messages. Like finger nails down a blackboard was one comment.
It appears Brown has reinforced that group who dislike his mono-mania about simply attacking the Tories with recent appointments:
‘it is no use just attacking the opposition. We need to be confident in our own message. Labour’s renewal has to come from within, not from simply refining our anti Tory strategy, as some seem to think. That’s not the way to a fourth term. When you have been in office this long, your main challenge is to renew yourself. If we cannot do that we will lose.’ (Peter Mandelson, New Statesman, 2 October 2008)
Who do you think in the ’some’ here?
This is definitely not a marriage made in heaven.
If Mandy takes on the job of election supremo then the fur will fly because Brown ousted Milburn because he was sitting in his, the maestro’s chair.
It could be spectacular.
I posted a while back that he was one to watch
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/05/labour.edmiliband
283.”Re 282, Baldylocks “Does anyone know; is Peter making the weather yet?”
Well its pissing down here, so I assume so”
I saw the weather warning for down South tonight on the Met Office website, and its bl**dy freezing up North. I know its weird coincidence that yesterday as news of Mandelson’s return hit the media as it was snowing up here…
Watched some more web clips of Palin. She has a lot of weaknesses obviously but she’s still a vote magnet for blue collar blokes. Alaska is a very blue collar type of place from my understanding so not surprised at all she did well there. McCain could use her in places where Obama needs lots of WWC votes.
McBean and Mandy — mostly Campbell’s doing imo. I think they’ll try and keep him out of the public eye and have him spinning webs in the background. I can see Mandy and McBean opening an antique shop together one day.
Campbell, Mandy and the BBC. If we weren’t heading into the worst recession since, who knows when, then I think they’d be capable of pulling off a 4th.
UPDATE: Having looked further at the poll detail I think that the News of the World have been premature in extrapolating ICM’s findings into a 78 seat Tory majority. The survey was confined to LAB>CON marginals and did not cover LAB>LD and LAB>SNP seats where there are likely to be changes. The central point remains: the poll suggests that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in LAB>CON marginals than in the country as a whole.
I think that this explains some of the confusion on the thread. I have amended the main article accordingly.
Hitler turned to his greatest enemy, Stalin, too. Of course he just waited for his opportunity to betray him. Ironically, it was Stalin who was left standing.
Is Brown’s resurrection of the Toxic Corpse of the Dark Lord going to inspire another “Downfall” Youtube spoof?
I was stunned by those pictures as well. Who instructed them to do that? Not even the cringiest of Labour toadies would do that willingly - it was totally North Korean and should be repeated again and again so that the real British public are reminded what kind of country they are now living in!
The Dear Leader Kim Jong Il would never have brought back an enemy of the people like Mandelson.
You might not like Napoleon but to describe him as neo-fascist is a bit unlikely. Proto-fascist perhaps.
The original proto-fascist was Julius Caesar - populist, authoritarian, street-thug violence from his supporters, bread and circuses for the masses, public works, power went to his head, got assassinated.
293. Oh dear, gabble will be so disappointed. Hey ho!
A few people have commented on Anthony King being past it, or biased, or too old at 74. It reminds me of another 74-year-old, Anthony Howard. I went off him in 2002 after he commented on the Ogmore by-election results programme.
He referred repeatedly to the Socialist Labour Party (which got 1,152 votes) as the “Socialist Alliance” - thereby showing that he didn’t have a clue about the difference between the Stlainists and the Trotskyites - and blithely assumed that one of the candidates (Captain Beany of the New Millenium Bean Party) was “some sort of entertainer” - thereby showing that he didn’t even recognise a famous politician who had already stood several times in South Wales elections.
In other words, he hadn’t bothered to do his homework of becoming familiar with who the candidates were before commenting on the election. I wrote to the BBC to complain about him, and the reply said that he was not a BBC employee but an outside “expert” and that therefore whatever he said had nothing to do with them.
A brief comment from Canada. Certainlt from the poster count around Toronto and environments the Liberals are set to do very well in Ontario. Even in the very prosperous areas they outnumber the Tories, and in some areas of Toronto there’s hardly anything but a see of red Liberal posters. The Liberal leader is widely acknowledged to have won the French language debate on Wednesday and to have done reasonably well in the English.
That being said none of my hosts said that Canada was being affected by the credit crunch and the economy is still going well which points to a Tory improvement, I guess.
When asked the question ‘Which Party will get most Seats at the next GE ?’,three out of thirteen said ‘Labour’.Two out of fifteen thought they would win with an Overall Majority.
Those are the findings of the Betfair jury and anyone is welcome to challenge them in the most direct way known to civilised man.
286-Good morning Malcolm-I don’t do “nonsense”.
To do away with the confusion on this thread, Mike, any way you can get access to the NoW data on those marginal seats polled, those they say the Tories will gain and those they say Labour will lose? We could then play with that data much more easily.
Memo to NoW - consult Mr. Smithson on the presentation of polling matters BEFORE going to press, you numpties….
271 Paul Norton, you are Graham Norton and I claim my £5!
Benedict White@94: Nope, no sign of a “spiral of silence” hurting Obama in the primaries.
Nate Silver:
“On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
(Although obviously just because there wasn’t one in the primary doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be one in the general.)
Is Andrew Rawnsley really implying what I think he’s implying here? What else does “intensely intimate” mean in this context?
“When Peter backed Tony rather than Gordon for the leadership all those bitter years ago, Gordon’s betrayed reaction was irrationally furious precisely because he and Peter had previously been so intensely intimate.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/05/mandelson.gordonbrown
Other articles have spoken about the highly charged relationship of Blair/Brown/Mandy. Did Little Britain only get it half right?
I know this site is not for Guido tittle-tattle, but it would explain a lot of the irrationality if the Gordo vs Mandy spat had got really personal. And it would suggest that another bust up is just around the corner.
“As for the false declaration on the mortgage application, in my opinion, jumping red lights is worse.”
Our judges disagree with you.
One of my theories is McBean’s mad sabotage of Blair’s domestic program led to Blair’s ego becoming focused on foreign policy…
which led to Iraq.
Hell hath no fury like a Mcbean scorned.
Why does Mandy’s comment in the Observer about he & Gordon being joined at the hip sound so much more like a threat than anything else?
Amused to see Gabble getting to grips with the reasons behind the credit crunch…
New thread now open.
Thanks
Double Carpet
281 Mike L, the problem with the Sun Telegraph article is that it is written by Melissa “flying a” Kite. She is very consistent in being wrong in predicting shadow cabinet changes. A “Nick Robinson” type forecaster.
Morris Dancer, 102.
Don’t forget the Luntz Newsnight focus group which proved that when people actually get the chance to hear Nick Clegg the Lib Dems do much better.
Morris Dancer, 102.
Don’t forget the Luntz Newsnight focus group which proved that when people actually get the chance to hear Nick Clegg the Lib Dems do much better.
gabble, are you in fact Dirty European Socialist. It is just that your style is so reminiscent and it would explain a lot.