What will it take to beat Obama now?
October 11th, 2008
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Which events could turn the tide this late in the game?
On Thursday night, I recorded another 10-minute slot for ‘Inside City Hall’ on NY1 (the Time Warner Cable news channel for New York). To the astonishment of the host, Dominic Carter, I mentioned an InTrade market that assesses the likelihood of an Israeli or US attack on Iran. Though I don’t play this market myself (I actually find it in rather poor taste), I suggested that such a significant event might be what it would take to push the economic crisis off the front pages, and make military and foreign affairs the centre-point of the final few weeks of campaigning. Such an occurrance would, I suggested, play into the hands of John McCain.
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The more I have dwelt on this issue, the more convinced I am that it will take a significant event for the Republican candidate to overcome such a substantial Obama lead. Indeed, only yesterday Politico.com carried a story which cited a Democratic pollster and strategist as saying that only a terrorist attack could revive McCain’s chances.
Whilst this is a little crass, there is some truth in the underlying claim. John McCain needs a significant ‘event’ to regain the momentum and the front pages of the papers. Beyond a terrorist attack, or an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, I cannot imagine that anything other than a major personal scandal could bring this election back to level-pegging in the betting markets. Maybe PB.com’s punters are more imaginative than I am, but there seem to me to be very few scenarios that plausibly suggest that John McCain could win this Presidential election.
To compound his worries, the Troopergate report was published yesterday - it found indications of abuse of power, but no illegal activity. Also, Harry Brighouse at Crooked Timber is running with rumours along a theme that has been oft-mentioned on PB.com - that the RNC might give up on McCain (given his polling defecit) and focus instead on trying to save some of its Congressmen and US Senators from the Democratic tide.
Unless there is a major gaffe by Obama-Biden, possibly during the final Presidential Debate, there seems little that will stop the Democratic Party contender, once priced at 50/1, from becoming the next President of the United States.
Any suggestions?
Morus
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Maybe if Brown came out and declared for Obama, on historic form it would be the kiss of death and hand a landslide win to McCain?!
1st? I think the US would probably still vote for Obama if an attack on Iran started. I can’t see a ground war, it would only be a few bombs. A terror attack in the US might be different, but if Obama said the right things that might not even do it.America won’t be rushed into a war, or two, after the next attack (God forbid there should be one).
1 - Didn’t Brown already do that?
Reposted from the end of last thread (with thanks for the opportunity to correct the atrocious spelling)
176
Morus, much as I normally agree with a lot of what you write, I find it impossible to understand why you would feel reassured by the presence of the man who was one of the prime causal factors in getting the UK into this mess in the first place.
It was Brown’s mismanagement of both the economic golden egg he was given in 1997 and also of the regulatory framework that he dismantled and then rebuilt in a completely Heath Robinson fashion which has caused this creisis to be so severe in Britain. Add to that the fact that his first response has been to lash out at others including friendly countries in a vain attempt to deflect attention away from himself and I am afraid you have someone in charge who is the very last person I would ever want to see anywhere near the decision making process.
He and his Treasury team remind me of nothing so much as Mickey, Goofy and Donald trying to clean the clock.
by Richard Tyndall October 11th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Bush states no nation will benefit by acting at the expense of another in this crisis - a swipe at the Iceland position?
Criticism of the G7’s lack of an actual plan is growing.
‘We will do whatever is necessary’ has not worked and will not work - the words are now a proven busted flush.
The economic crisis probably has a side benefit in making opening another front unaffordable and Bush’s weakness makes an Iran attack unlikely.
As it comes down to the wire the election will I think turn increasingly on character - Obama’s weaknesses in reaching out to redneck/blue collar voters due to his perceived distance and inability to connect, McCain’s ability to extract John McCain, the straight talker, from the wreckage of his campaign. The GOP will be hurt badly because of Bush, Iraq and his administrations failure economically but a Presidential election is more about the man than the party. McCain’s only hope is to present himself as a leader in a crisis, but Palin and the campaign errors don’t present that image today.
The possible game changer is less likely an externality like Iran but a different McCain in the final debate. A few tears almost did it for Hilary….
It will take a monumental event to stop the Obama bandwagon now - even a military strike on Iran or a major terrorist incident would be unlikely to see a sudden surge for McCain. The latest news on Sarah Palin is also disastrous for McCain - the odds on her surviving until election day must be dropping dramatically, and the allegations from the McCain camp that it was ‘Obama supporters’ holds no water given that it was a Republican state senate in Alaska. I would not be surprised if she’s gone by the end of the weekend, indeed odds on her replacement would be interesting, Rudy Gulliani??. The vetting of Sarah Palin seems to have been very shoddy given what has emerged about her subsequently – clearly it was a sop to the nutty right.
No matter what the RNC do now it’s unlikely to stop Republican congressmen being swept out on the Democratic tide - indeed the latest polls show Georgia senate race to be deadlocked, a race that only a few weeks ago was rated as ‘Safe Republican’ just a few weeks.
This election could end up being a landslide for Obama, on a scale not seen for the Democrats since 1964, and above any of the Clinton victories given the latest polls. When the tide seems to be running in your favour, there is little, or anything to stop it and this could very well turn into a Democrat rout.
Obama is gonna win. Even an attack on Iran wouldn’t stop his momentum: and besides, the last thing the world economy needs now is another hideous war in the Middle East, with crude going up to $300 a barrel - so the Americans would surely prevent the Israelis from doing anything, even if it might benefit the Republicans.
On the wider note of the presidency and American power, as I may have mentioned, I’ve been watching all seven series of the West Wing (which I’ve never seen before) over recent weeks. It’s a cracking show, even if it is dismally and tediously liberal and PC in places.
However what it most exudes now is an air of nostalgia: for that brief period 1985-2008 when America was The Hyperpower, the undisputed leader and policeman of the world. In the West Wing, when Jed Bartlett goes into the Situation Room, you sense he really can do anything, anywhere, anytime - that he watches over the globe, that he can sort any problem.
That feeling has gone now, you can just sense it. In just a few weeks. I don’t think America will ever look as uniquely puissant ever again. When Obama goes into the Situation Room, he’ll be thinking about China, and the EU, and his reliance on oil, and the fragile US economy. He won’t be master of the world. No US president will ever wield that undisputed power now.
It’s an extraordinary evolution. And that’s just one ramification of the Krunch. There are many more.
5 When the G7 said they would “use all available tools”, I thought they were referring to those in the group photo:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7664790.stm
7 Sean - the West Wing was extremely well written, and very enjoyable, but suffered from the fatal flaw of being set in a parallel universe where 9-11 had never happened, nor the Afghan or Iraq wars. Never referring to the biggest political event of our age ensured it was going to to suffer from terminal nostalgia - for an age gone by, when airplanes landed at airports and Saddam was a rum cove in a far-off land - and America was a fine upstanding world citizen (-ish).
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/26/could-this-man-be-the-next-president-of-the-united-states/
The first comment on this thread still makes me laugh
I went out for a drink last night - when I left the Dow was -500 and seemed to be struggling to break away from the 8000 marker - OK, it recovered somewhat ffrom there but whilst I was out I had a Jeff Wayne moment from WOTW - all these people having a drink, eating their supper, doing all the things that we do day in day out - and I thought ‘could it really come crashing down’ - what if the letters of credit dry up, what if the slide cannot be stopped, what if the fabric of captialism fails?
It felt as ‘real’ as the fear of nuclear armageddon did in the early 80s - as relevant and as present.
I am sure we’ll all be ok and somehow things will get on to an even footing, but it will be a rocky ride getting there and looking around the pub last night I picked up on snippets of economic conversations but more to the point noticed in my own group’s inevitable disucssions that thoughtful draw on the pint after some catastrophic prediciton… ‘we’re lauging about it but you know, I am sh!tting a brick here’ - I wonder how long before or if we’re not silently pondering but openly panicking.
I forgot to mention on the other thread about our experiences when we went to Wayzata in MN - my partner and I went out for pancakes - and we wore our Obama buttons as usual - there were a group of four people behind us - and one of the women had a loud mouth and when seeing his button - started talking in a loud voice about how crap the Obama policies - were - no problem - but then she started denigrating Obama in racist terms - we asked the manager to move us and my partner called her an asshole.
At our new table she followed us and asked why he had called her an asshole - he was silent - but I told her we did not tolerate racist views we don’t care what politics she had but racism overstepped the line - she looked at my partner and called him un-American.
This is what McCain and Palin are spewing - and this must be going through the country which is so scary.
http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/
Cast your vote on the US election and see how people around the world would vote.
NOTE: Its an Icelandic site, so you might want to get your vote in quickly while its still there!
6. Indeed, the economic crisis means that an Iran attack is unlikely - The US. has also removed the N.Koreans according to breaking Sky News:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/
190. Floater
Let met set out the facts. Lehman had assets of $639 billion and liabilities of $617 billion.
The liabilities are as follows:
Bonds $155 billion
Other debts (including accounts payable) $463 billion (includes all bank debts and owed to internal creditors etc)
Assets are
Cash $314 billion
Receivables $42 billion
Fixed assets (buildings etc) $4.3 billion
Non-current assets $279 billion. (mortgage debt, derivatives, etc)
So one would have hoped that the bond holders would come out OK. That was the view immediately post-bankruptcy. Now we open the can and find that the bondholders are expecting to be paid 9 cents on the Dollar. So for that chunk of liabilities, $140 billion worth of losses. So assuming that the numbers are right and that bonds are the least senior of all debtors, Lehman lost at least $140 billion. In reality we dont know how much of the rest of the debt is going to be paid.
The CDS magnify the effect. So according to the news feeds, there was a nominal $400 billion worth of protection sold. So in total anyone who sold protection on Lehman’s debt now must pay $360 billion to those who bought protection. Now to some extent, this will be hedged - people will have shorted the debt or the equity or both (and made a handsome profit). Some people who lost money because of the failure will be made whole. So the net effect is not a wholesale loss for the sellers of protection. But, the amounts involved are huge. No one is quite certain where the debt losses end up.
The big questions are “how large are the total Lehman losses” and “why were they so large”? Assuming that the loss will be just $140 billion - one assumes it comes from the non-current assets portion. That means that the portfolio of assets was more than 50% bad. Or is it off-balance sheet problems, or bad hedging post failure, or was it always this bad? Then think “what about the assets of other banks”. Lehman was dodgy, but was it truly exceptional? Compare the loss of $140 billion to the US$ 700 billion TARP package and it doesnt seem so big. Also the loss is nearly 10% of the IMF’s US$1.5 trillion estimate for the US bad debt losses. One requires more information to make a solid analysis, but I am more nervous, these are very big numbers.
10 cerrig. One or two other notable PB faces a la oeufs there too !!
A Bin Laden capture maybe more likely than we think!
Why? I was going to comment on this yesterday but got distracted! That is Pakistan are on the verge of an Icelandic situation - Bankruptcy. There situation in Pakistan is a balance of payments problem. The US & Nato Allies could stipulate that a bailout was linked to the capture killing of Bin Laden: That would be a boost to the GOP candiadate would it not? He also mentioned it in a recent debate.
My view is that an Obama presidency would now be the best thing, a period of stability is required.
4 - It’s a fair point, Richard. I posted an answer at 210 on the last thread - let me know your thoughts.
I have to run out for a little while - see you all later on. Mike will be covering this evening’s polls, if any materialise.
15. I voted Obama!
13 McCain should run for President of Macedonia! (getting over 90% of the 360 votes cast there)
Or Burkino Faso (100%!!!! Admittedly, reduced in impact because only two voted there - probably US Embassy staff?!?)
22 Sorry, should refer to 15 not 13.
If Obama were still the “risky celebrity” candidate, an outside event may change the race dramatically. Ultimately, I do think that Americans trust McCain more on foreign policy and national security, but the gap is not as pronounced as it used to be. So even in the case of a major event in that area, I’m not sure the current lead would be erased. Obama has very successfully moved from a theme based on lofty optimism to one based on steady leadership and common sense. In fact he may find just the right words in case of a terrorist attack.
So what would it take? First of all, I think it requires McCain to steady his campaign, stop the bleeding. There are multiple indicators the campaign is collapsing (GOP losing message discipline, local crowds turning vicious, down-ticket Republicans seeking distance, RCP considering cutting off funds). A campaign in dissolution cannot win, no matter the circumstances. I do think McCain has a chance to stop this. That would be step one.
Step two would be a convincing McCain performance at the next debate. He has to pass the economy threshold. Outline a surprisingly decent recovery plan, tell people where he will get the money from, apologize to Obama for the crowds, look presidential. He has to overcome the emerging “erratic and angry” image of the past weeks. The debate is his last chance to do that. I don’t think it’s very likely he can, but it’s not impossible.
Step three. a major event. This would have to be a terrorist attack most effectively an Al Qaida attack on American soil, or a war against Iraq. McCain would have to show calm but determined leadership (i.e. just showing he’s “tougher” would not work) and Obama would have to react too late, too soft, and/or too intellectually. The probability of the event happening in the first place, McCain not being a hot head and Obama appearing out of touch is extremely low in my opinion.
The problem really is that McCain would probably need each of the steps and in that order. If his campaign collapses, the debate will not help him and there will be nothing left to react. If he doesn’t already project a better image before an event, that event alone will probably not suffice.
Realistically, I don’t see McCain winning this. In fact the GOP seems well on the way to collapse before the actual election and that means a landslide is becoming increasingly likely.
19 - You make the assumption that Bin Laden is still alive. It is very likely that he was killed in the attacks on the Tora Bora cave complex.
12 It’s a classic, isn’t it, Cerrig?!!
It’s not for nothing that our man is known as ‘Rogerdamus’, PB’s most celebrated Antitipster.
You have to say he bears the teasing with very good humour though.
Looks like McCain should retire to Skopje, seems like he’s popular there. Lucky him, it’s my favourite city in the world
15 A self-slecting poll sample, but it does demonstrate that Obama has a 90%+ vote right across Europe, and would take office with a huge fund of goodwill from this side of the pond.
Also worth noting that 20% of Iranians would vote for John “bomb bomb bomb Iran” McCain!!!
With the markets as twitchy as they are, it’s hard to imagine a serious foreign policy crisis - an attack on Iran or major terrorist incident - not also triggering a massive economic crisis. The economic crisis would likely have far more effect on most Americans than the foreign policy crisis.
Meaning that if Obama is overwhelmingly more trusted on the economy, he still wins.
The sort of thing that could help McCain is something with no serious economic or foreign policy implications, but lots of political implications - like Osama bin Laden appearing to endorse Obama. You could see that closing the gap to the point where a good few days of media at the right time and McCain-friendly assumptions about turnout could be enough to give him a win.
More likely, although Obama’s team appears to be very competent and you wouldn’t normally expect him to make a serious gaffe, the media is going to need something to talk about for the next few weeks. Will McCain’s campaign unraveling be entertaining enough? If not, somebody will dig up some bad news for Obama. Again, probably not decisive, but given the right media coverage at the right time and favourable turnout assumptions, McCain might somehow be able to pull it off.
All looking very unlikely, though.
I’ve just had a bath, where I always like to think apocalyptic thoughts, and I’ve come up with a few more ramifications of the Kredit Krunch.
1. (as menshed before) Scottish independence is a dead duck. You don’t divorce your richer spouse in the middle of a deep recession. That means any chance of a Yes vote is gone for ten years. And the oil will be very depleted by the time the world restabilises. It’s over, Alex.
2. We may see revolution in Iran. Think about it. This is an unstable country with an unpopular regime. Oil is now collapsing in value - if it continues to fall then Iran may go bankrupt - leading to civil strife. Ditto Syria?
3. For the same reason Russia - losing money - might become more stridently aggressive. An attempt to annexe parts of Ukraine? What else could they do? Scary.
4. The eurozone could break up. If one member looks like defaulting - Italy, Greece,Belgium - are the Germans really gonna bail them out with their own billions? Can’t see it.
5. However, for that reason we may see a sudden move by core eurozone members towards true Federalisation. The elites in France and Beneluxs etc already want it, this might be their chance. What would Britain do in that situation?
6. We could see the first far right government in a western democracy in sixty years. Austria, Denmark, Belgium - who knows. They can’t keep killing all the charismatic far right leaders. Eventually one will win.
7. Tom Knox could sell millions of copies of the Genesis Secret as punters worldwide turn to violent escapist literature.
So it’s not all bad.
17. Those numbers seem extraordinary.
I remember seeing somewhere not long ago that only about 1% of UK mortgages are in arrears. In the US there has been talk in some areas of about 10% in arrears.
How do the above numbers tie in with 50% of Lehman’s non-current assets being bad?
Don’t forget, there is already a lot of voting going on whilst Obama has double-digit leads. Any “game-changer”* event would have to flip McCain over to be doing even better than Obama is doing now to overcome these cast votes. A 14% McCain lead, anybody? Nah, me neither….
* I know, it’s a sh1te term. Sorry.
What will it take to beat Obama?
A surprise Bin Laden video (as in 2004) would not be enough, so it could involve Bin Laden but be something much worse for America, in order to scare them into voting Republican.
I’ve more or less given up on trying to find any remaining value in the individual US State elections, but I am still keeping a watching brief on the total number of States the Democrats and Republicans look likely to win.
What do the score cards of the experts, Jack W, PtP and Mr Partridge currently show please?
Frankly I want Obama to win as I think he will be a good and maybe even a great president and in mercenary terms whilst not a 50:1 merchant I am on at 12:1 - a better investment than the stock exchange. Thus I expect and hope that nothing emrges to stop him
Re Iran etc, I always find it most worrying that very few, if any, USA politicians understand the nuances of international relations or have experience of dealing with the widely different cultures that one meets around the world. Also few have another language and not many have studied the history of the nations. Thus whilst they may sit on foreign relations committees, they lack the practical experience that is so necessary to defuse a difficult situation and still let both sides believe that they have come out as winners. In fact many USA politicians react as they are still winning the war on the western frontier and still mentally walk around as if they are carrying a pair of six-guns at the hip.
On the trade topic, whilst there is a danger that international trade will freeze due to lack of liquidity and trust, much of the world’s trade does not use letters of credit. For trade with a developing country where purchaser does not have the finance to put up a LC, trade us still done using a combination of insurance and merchant bank facilities. This could freeze first and would need the World Bank to guarantee funds to free the log jam.
13 I go from worried about My family’s future to hope that Britain might break away from the yoke of EU integration and will create a better form of less corrupt capitalism that doesn’t deify the fabulously wealthy but really works for the majority through regulation looked at from a consumer rather than a business perspective. As well as putting power at a more local level.
I also hope that in this coming recession businesses will look to cut non staffing costs first, so perhaps innovative solutions like homeworking will allow businesses to cut rental, heating, security and other costs before the wage bill is considered. I admit a lot is wishful thinking but if you can’t look beyond the possible financial armageddon then you won’t handle it well if it comes.
31. The proportion of sub-prime borrowers in arrears (by 30 days) was 21.7% in Q1 2008. But these numbers tell us little about the nature of the expected Lehman losses (note that the 9% payment on Lehman bonds is what people were willing to pay for the bond and is thus a best estimate of the extent of the losses, many assets will need to be sold over time). I’d guess that sub-prime is going to see massive defaults and losses of over 50% - but not all of Lehman’s assets are in this category, so I am at a loss to explain the expected scale of the losses.
Can McCain make anything of the economy?
Obama is making the running here but some of his material is open to the same attack Labour make on Cameron and Osborne: where is the plan? Obama is stronger on blaming McCain for the crisis than on actually solving it.
Republicans on the other hand seem to be spending most of their time trying to blame Bill Clinton for encouraging mortgages for poorer people. Doubly stupid because Bill isn’t running and in any case the narrative has long since moved on from the subprime crisis.
GOP strategists need to come up with a simple plan that will reassure ordinary Americans they will be protected. Because McCain has a certain amount of baggage here, Palin should launch it.
184.”Our host`s obvious dislike, combined with vitrolic hatred of the man,by many tories on here, which I percieve most decent people think starts to go beyond the pale at times.”
Its a very wide and mixed coalition of people who are not impressed with Gordon Brown, including many within the Labour party. No one would disagree that the three biggest Scottish figures in the Labour party who rose to prominence under Tony Blair were Brown, Reid and Cook. And yet Brown had already fallen out with the other two during his time in Scottish politics…
Maybe some on here need to get things into perspective and remember that other Prime Ministers before Brown got hard time in the press and from supporters of other parties. Being able to handle criticism and deal with a sometimes hostile reception was something that Mrs Thatcher had to be able to cope with almost from day one of her leadership. And she had a mobile rent a mob following her around most of her premiership.
Maybe its been too long, and some Labour supporters and members of the PLP have forgotten the dark days of the last Labour government and the Winter of discontent? I think that was part of the problem for Labour and its backbenchers this week, but for the Conservatives the memories of being in government in tough economic times are that much fresher, and Roger and others should stop bleating and think back to political capital that New Labour gained from the anger directed at the Conservatives back in 1997.
I also think that it is unrealistic to think that the country will rally around Brown and hail him as a war time hero figure as full implications of the present recession start to bite. And those who think he is getting a rough ride now on PB.com or else where in the media or blogsphere better start understanding this, when the economic pain really starts hitting ordinary voters they will turn their anger on the people in charge.
New Labour were able to control the media narrative and agenda when things were going well in the first heady years after that 97′ GE victory, but I doubt that even Mandelson and Campbell, now back in the fold can recapture that skill in the present economic crisis.
The situation is too volatile and its changing all the time.
34 PfP. ARSE (BUTT) currently projects Obama 28/22.
37. My company does have many its staff working from their home office as they are nearer their clients, but we still need a small head office where the international business is controlled, acts as a communication centre, and is a focal point for clients as well as performing the legal functions of a company.
41 Many thanks Jack.
Sean, have you finished all 7 series now?
McCain now 5.4 on betfair.
I still wouldn’t put stolen monopoly money on him at that price.
42 I appreciate it sometimes won’t be possible, for example anyone who physically has to look after customers is unlikely to be able to do it from home(apart from some oldest profession type home workers, but I won’t go there), but for example the government could set an example and vast swathes of the civil service could probably remotely work using relatively cheap PCs and internet connections. Meanwhile the government could seel off the expensive buildings and pay off some debt.
34 PfP
If you look at the Intrade projection, 22 States are colored red. Missouri is likely to go blue, so call it 21. There’s no value in the 21-25 option so what’s the chances of another State going blue to take you down to 16-20?
W.Virginia and Georgia are your best bets - both possible rather than likely. So maybe there is some value is the 16-20. Beware though. If we get into true landslide territory, Texas,Montana, N Dakota and Mississippi could fall in a heap and suddenly you are danger of dropping down to the level below, the under 16 category, so you’d need to cover that possibility.
Not sure what the next State to go would be though?
Alaska anybody?
17
Thanks. Great post.
My view is that - with undeclared loans offshore - Cayman Islands etc - and basically ENRON style concealment rife …(when you have bonus pools of £5 billion a year, why spoil the party?) all US banks have potential losses 3 to 5 times the declared likely outcomes.
My personal view of the G7 statement is horror: Nothing has been agreed apart from bullsh1t and nothing concrete is going to be done. On that basis - as stockmarkets in Europe and US are at KEY support levels - we may very well see a temporary lull (1-2 days max?) and then an even bigger panic.
The G7 statements remind me of Congress and the US bailout: it takes a week and another set of huge falls to bring reality home.
If I am correct we will see the 2003 lows being tested this coming week..and that will prove a temporary bottom (Dow 7250, FTSE 3250) - giving time for another G7 emergency meeting next weekend lasting for 4-5 days until they actually agree to DO something instead of speaking platitudes.
31
B&B have approx 2.5% mortgages in arrears. That’s their own loans. The loans they purchased are running apprx. double that.
I have no doubt these figures will worsen but falling food and enrgy costs will provide some relief to household budgets next year.
Unless something sensible is done we will have a depression: or a very bad recession -4% GDP growth.
US new car sales are down 20% year on year. Credit agencies are starting to withdraw credit to finance new car stocks in dealers. If that continues, expect 40% year on year declines in new car sales.
And ditto all other consumer spending: gradually getting worse.
As usual the IMF and other economic forecasters are about 6 months behind the curve. The IMF is seeking hundreds of billions for emergency aid. It will be needed in my view.
I’m sorry to be so gloomy. But where is the New Deal or its equivalent. We need ACTION now before the world financial system lies down and turns its feet up in the air and expires.. slowly.
47 Thanks PtP, your figures are pretty much the same as Jack W’s then.
Having checked Betfair’s odds, I can’t see any value on either side of the equation and the only way this is likely to change would be if we get into real landslide territory, ie 35:15 split, beyond which the odds are currently in the 20s.
12. If by any remarkable chance John McCain still does manage to win - doesn’t look likely but no election is over until the votes are counted - Roger is going to have a good laugh at all the people who mocked him for that post.
49 Isn’t DC counted as a separate State, PfP? That would make it 51.
“1. (as menshed before) Scottish independence is a dead duck. You don’t divorce your richer spouse in the middle of a deep recession. That means any chance of a Yes vote is gone for ten years. And the oil will be very depleted by the time the world restabilises. It’s over, Alex.”
Don’t be too quick to write the epitaph for nationalism. Building nationalism on oily foundations was always folly. It was proposing that Scotland becomes Heather Mills McCartneyland and run out of the marriage because of the sniff of a windfall. The nationalism of Alex Salmond may indeed fail because it is a greed based nationalism. But there is a solid base for a less greed motivated form of nationalism to carry the independence cause. If Salmond can sow the seeds of detachment, then oil becomes irrelevant.
51 PtP. No. DC is the federal capitol not a state.
51 Oops. Betfair Rules state DC not counted. 50 is correct.
Sorry.
53, does DC have senators and congressmen?
My current prediction is 28/23, it could be as low as 24/27 or as high as 30/21. Absolute bottom falling out of campaign time and a perfect storm would only ever take it to about 36/15.
56 - For states take one of the first figure (DC will always be democrat).
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 52%
Note - Yesterday M-45/O-50
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
So, a Republican state legislature’s appointed bipartisan commitee of Inquiry has found that Sarah Palin is a bully who breaks laws to achieve her own ends. Are we surprised? Does a duck quack?
To which the McCain campaign spokesman Meg Stapleton answered that the “Legislative Council seriously overreached, making a tortured argument to find fault without basis in law or fact”
Not at all like the tortured arguments put forward by book-banner Palin that Dinasaurs walked the earth with men. Oh no!
47 Alaska anybody?
Arkansas first….
56 It’s the ‘about’ that’s the problem, UKPaul. In a real meltdown situation, States like Arkansas, Kentucky and Alaske could nobble your bet.
Tricky.
53 MD. DC has a non voting delegate in the HoR and no senators. It has 3 EV’s in the electoral college.
20
Hi Morus,
A number of other contributors to the previous thread have already answered some of your points pretty effectively but just to summarise why I am so critical and why I have absolutely no faith in Brown.
It is not true that he was generally regarded as a good chancellor and that the only people criticising him were Tories. From the very start of his “reign” at the Treasury there were plenty of eminently qualified people pointing out that what he was doing was creating a short to medium term bubble which would at some point have to burst.
Even he tacitly had to admit he had inherited a very good economic situation when he continued to claim that he was responsible for the longest period of continuous economic growth for 200 years (a dubious use of statistics actually) when over a third of that growth period had been under the last government!
His decision to decimate the pensions provision in Britain - turning it from one of the best in the world into a virtual basket case - was catastrophic and laid the ground work for the housing bubble by convincing people that a private, company or state pension was not going to be enough to support them in old age and the only real answer was property.
His decision to split the regulatory authorities into three distinct, mutually exclusive and isolated organisations has been shown by plenty of commentators - such as in the excellent Channel 4 Documentary back in February - to have been a major factor in allowing the city institutions the run of the system with little or no effective oversight - a direct cause of the current crisis.
He compounded this by then signing up to the Basle 2 agreement which effectively drives any company into bankruptcy as soon as they accrue a relatively small number of bad debts. The result is that those companies that do declare the bad debts are almost committing financial suicide so instead they try and hide the debt which most of the time works but which means that when we do get a large scale crisis like this they find themselves over exposed.
He has driven the consumer and housing bubble to extraordinary heights as a means of maintaining unrealistic growth fed by credit since this was the only way he could find to get even close to balancing the books. At the same time he has racked up simply astronomical off the book liabilities through the PFI system and has continually changed the accounting rules to try and make sure the country appears to be solvent when in fact it is far further into debt than he has admitted.
He then has the audacity to attack the banks and financial institutions for doing exactly the same thing.
There have been plenty of non-political commentators making these exact observations for years now. He has been warned about both the overall direction of the economy, about the unsustainable levels of debt, about the reduced and fragmented regulation and about the specifics - see today’s revelations about Lord Oakshott and Michael Fallon MP warning about problems with Iceland back in July.
Whilst it is true that there are problems world wide, we are terribly placed to deal with them directly as a result of Brown’s incompetence and political manipulation of the whole financial system in order to maintain his myth of no more boom and bust. Whatever he does now we are going to be paying for this for decades to come.
62, cheers:)
53 Is it fair to say the Obama camp have written off West Virginia as McCain has Michigan and probably aren’t too bothered now.
New SUSA poll for Alabama :
McCain 62% .. Obama 35%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b2db5e34-9654-4a51-a3ea-02cbea1a304f
65 Punter. WV is way down Obama’s target list …. a bit like Labour and Enfield Southgate in 97 !!
BTW …. Palin is undertaking a bus tour of WV on Sunday and McCain in back in Iowa !!
67. oh you can’t be serious, why is mccain in iowa again ?!
61 - This is my list
DC excluded
1 Hawaii
2 Vermont
3 Maryland
4 Illinois
5 Rhode Island
6 Massachusetts
7 Delaware
8 New York
9 Connecticut
10 California
11 New Jersey
12 Maine
13 Oregon
14 Washington
15 Iowa
16 Michigan
17 Wisconsin
18 New Mexico
19 Pennsylvania
20 Minnesota
21 New Hampshire
22 Virginia
23 Nevada - Current Obama low point
24 Florida
25 Colorado
26 Ohio
27 North Carolina - Current position
28 Missouri
29 West Virginia - Current Obama high point
30 Indiana
31 Georgia
32 Montana
33 North Dakota
34 Arkansas
35 Mississippi - Potential Obama landslide
36 Arizona
37 South Carolina
38 Alaska
39 Louisiana
40 Texas
41 Kansas
42 South Dakota
43 Kentucky
44 Tennessee
45 Nebraska
46 Wyoming
47 Idaho
48 Utah
49 Alabama
50 Oklahoma
65 fivethirtyeight.com has W Virginia shaded white - evenly balanced. Pollster.com also has it as a toss-up. Electoral vote.com has it in the “weak Dem” column - firmer than Florida, Ohio, Nevada or Colorado! So no - it is very much in play.
in fairness, obama is spending all day in pennsylvania…
70. only thing you have to be careful of with west virginia is that only one poll has shown obama ahead there, and that was a suspicous looking one from ARG.
Why is Washington DC not a state? (I know I could just look on Wiki but I trust PB as the ultimate source of historical knowledge
)
52
What d’ya reckon Salmond, as First Minister, buys the BOS from H, to enable a fractured LloydsTSB takeover to complete, with the political cover of a national indignance to the sad demise of its erstwhile National Bank. A pro-EU christiansocialdemocrat small state administration, how could the EU let it fail?
Also, Iain Dale survived a near-miss last night, the like of which might have done for another prominent euro-baiting Teutophile.
65 - The point about West Virginia is that it isn’t needed, if the Democrats take West Virginia then they have already won. Better to focus on places which are potential tipping points.
71 Dan. Obama has four big rallies in the state today. Difficult to pull out at short notice. Also IIRC a big fundraiser too.
“If by any remarkable chance John McCain still does manage to win [...] Roger is going to have a good laugh at all the people who mocked him for that post.”
Now I’m even gladder I donated $100 to Obama!
An Obama victory is the last thing Brown wants, you know.
My current different scenarios translated to EVs by the way is -
Current Obama low point - 282 EV
Current Obama position - 353 EV
Current Obama high point - 369 EV
Potential Obama landslide - 413 EV
A big spread and it all revolves around a relatively small percentage of votes.
73 - To show that the seat of federal government is independent of any one state.
76 And it also blunts Palin’s presence in the state. Less risk of it coming back as a nasty surprise…
It will be interesting to see if Palin has toned down her rhetoric any.
75 Quite. That’s the down side of the EV system, which otherwise seems a very good one. You wonder why anybody bthers outside the swing States.
Thanks for that piece of work. We can all quibble with the order, but it’s very helpful to have a list like that.
63 I think that much of that is fair, and I think that much of the gloss has worn off Brown’s record as Chancellor, with the public at large. But I think he can recover *some* standing if he handles the financial crisis effectively. Not enough to win, but enough to mitigate defeat. Also, it’s ended the plotting against him, as even his fiercest internal critics realise it would be grossly irresponsible to bring down a Prime Minister at this point.
82, I think he can mitigate the effects of the financial crisis, but the coming recession may be a different matter. People want change and Brown isn’t charismatic or intelligent enough to persuade them otherwise.
Sky have Palin on now - she has about the most irritating voice on the planet - not just going up at the end of sentences but actually squealing. Ugh.
Obama all the way, Tories for Barack!!
New Research 2000/Times-Union poll for Florida :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/101008/met_342306549.shtml
Is there any betting on senate races because there are some interesting ones out there? Georgia looks as though it could possibly flip Democrat, the latest poll has the candidates level. Smith (R) is still fighting hard against Merkley (D) in Oregon and that could go down to the wire. Franken (D) looks to have been helped by the Independent in Minnesota and it is going his way and I still think there could still be a surprise in the Mississippi special election with Musgrave (D) improving his polling position rapidly.
What a nice day it is today - McPalin is tanking, the financial markets are closed, the sun is shining and for the first time this year I have beaten my wife at tennis!
77. Are you an American citizen BannedHorse?
84. ah so abortion is the “anything apart from the economy” topic of the day
86. I think Obama turnout operations and unaccounted for minority voting for could make places like Georgia and Mississippi more likely to flip than Minnesota or Oregon. Right now I really think we have about a 45% chance of getting 60 seats.
89. When in doubt, go for the culture war. It’s the GOP’s favourite strategy - and year-by-year it’s losing its effect. Culture wars only work when you have the majority on your side.
88 — no, I just gave my NYC friend a hundred-dollar bill and he did it on my behalf while I was visiting him. Would that count as an illegal donation?
87. Goupillon. When did you start beating your wife?
(If I was an American citizen I’d hardly be so worked up about Labour’s ID card scheme, would I?)
92. Yes. You have just single-handedly gifted the election to the Republicans…
89 - As William F Buckley’s son, Christopher, Kathleen Parker’s fellow writer for the National Review said, about the reaction to an article she wrote that was less than fulsome in its Palin praise.
“she has to date received 12,000 (quite literally) foam-at-the-mouth hate-emails. One correspondent, if that’s quite the right word, suggested that Kathleen’s mother should have aborted her and tossed the fetus into a Dumpster. ”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama
Sometimes there are no words…
95 Perhaps it will be declared void now this is publicly known, Mark.
92. Yes.
If I choose to give my liberal American friend $100 out of the goodness of my heart and he chooses to donate it to Obama, there’s not a lot I can do about that, is there..?
96.
“Kathleen’s mother should have aborted her and tossed the fetus into a Dumpster. ””
Interesting position from rampant anti-abortionists. They obviously have secret ‘get-out’ claws?
96 - Mild stuff. Guido’s correspondents are the real thing.
48. “B&B have approx 2.5% mortgages in arrears. That’s their own loans. The loans they purchased are running approx. double that.”
This is what I don’t understand. B&B have approx 2.5% mortgages in arrears and they were the 2nd weakest bank (after Northern Rock). Even if every one of these mortgages went completely bad (with nil recovery) and every bank had 2.5% bad debts then that is still a position that every (or almost every) bank could survive.
I recall HBOS had £450bn of assets and £430bn of liabilities so 2.5% bad debts = £11bn which would just reduce overall net assets from £20bn to £9bn.
Obviously a massive hit but still survivable. So what is going on?
100, your accidental spelling of ‘clause’ as ‘claws’ brings to mind another paradox — why does the fundie Right reject biological Darwinism but embrace socioeconomic Darwinism?
99 “If I choose to give my liberal American friend $100 out of the goodness of my heart and he chooses to donate it to Obama, there’s not a lot I can do about that, is there..? ;-)”
You are not a tax accountant by any chance are you, Horse?
101 I remember the Editor of the Independent’s Letters Page saying that on the basis of the letters he received, which were not printed, Hitler would have had no difficulty recruiting a British SS, if this country had been occupied in WWII.
Real Clear Politics currently has the ECV count as being:
Democrats………..277
Republican……….158
Toss-up………….103
That looks like an enormous lead for Obama, but in several of the States showing him ahead, his lead is very modest and there are still almost 4 weeks to go.
Ken at 17. - there is a bit of a mystery here about the scale of Lehman’s losses, though I think the expectation was always that around US$100bn would be lost. More than likely both the level three assets and some off-balance sheet stuff are involved.
One thing this does point to though, is that the popular notion that illiquid assets have been wildly oversold and are being held at artificially low prices is not very convincing. Which in turn points to the need for massive capital injections on top of the illiquid asset purchases in the Paulson Plan. And soon!
96.”Sometimes there are no words…”
Agreed.
102.MikeL, but weren’t B&B big players in the buy to let market?
106 Pollster.com has the following ECV breakdown:
Democrats………320 (203 strong, 117 leaning)
Republican……158 (140 strong, 18 leaning)
Toss-up…………60
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
Afternoon all. Just been watching the dreadful Palin woman on SKY News. Very grown up speech- not! Obama is a child murderer because he believes women should have the right to an abortion. That was the theme of the diatribe coming outof her mouth this afternoon. She was talking as though Obama was standing there in the abortion clinic spearing any foetus born alive. This woman is just evil. I seriously worry that some fruitbat GOP supporter listening to her tries to take a pot shot at Obama with a gun.
102 Most lenders have well below 2.5% mortgage arrears.
69 - The Senate races in GA and KY (The Republican leader McConnell is defending here and Democrats want revenge for the Daschle defeat) have tightened noticeably since the economic crisis. Maybe this is having more of an effect in the South than elsewhere? Would be interesting to see some new MS polls to check the effect there.
On Mississippi I would have it higher on the list, possibly after Georgia. Rasmussen had a poll 2 weeks ago which showed McCain up 52-44. However the crosstabs showed McCain winning white voters 83 - 17 (assuming undecideds split in proportion to decideds) and Obama winning Black voters 98 - 2. In 2004 Bush won 85% of white voters, so Obama is holding his own here. In 2004 Black voters made up 34% of voters. If that is replicated this year McCain wins 55 - 45. About 37% of the population is Black, if turnout matches this McCain wins 52.5 - 47.5. If Black turnout exceeds this and hits 40% McCain wins 50.1 - 49.9 i.e. a tie.
If Republicans are demoralized and turn-out is down this could be a surprise Obama win. Another wildcard - the Black population may be even higher with many evacuees from New Orleans now in MS.
The only thing that will stop Obama winning is the doubts that many Americans have about him coming forth as a major deciding factor.
So far they havent because there are other issues, mainly the economy that matter much much more and 8 years of George Bush in what has basically become a discredited presidency. You only have to look at the term elections last year. The GOP are in the dog house. The troubles in the markets and the real economy have really shunted Obama clear. The morbid fascination wth Palin has I believe been largely irrelevant in the big scheme of things. Its the economy stupid, and 8 years of GWB. Its thats simple.
Ironically, its the view of some Democrat types that McCain who is the future of the GOP, at least in terms of his broad position. Despite the propaganda spouted by some, McCain is basically a centerist Conservative in American eyes (those eyes being the only ones that matter, ours do not).
114, Whether the GOP understand that is another story and McCain’s likely defeat used by factions to pull the party further right.
111 Eastercross,I really hope not, but as you say there is always a possiblity of a fruitbat racist attempting such a thing.
Was`nt there someone arrested before the convention, but the Police said they were not serious.
114/115 I wouldn’t disagree with a word of that.
102 Problem wasn’t just bad debt but profit margins and roll-over/replacement of wholesale loans. Complex but basically B&B, NR and others borrowed short term lower interest capital and lent out at higher rates of interest. Business model worked when they high credit ratings and the market was awash with cash to be borrowed. When credit tightened and risk rose on their income they were increasingly faced with higher risk markups on borrowings, which they had to take to replace loans due for payment, but fixed competitive rates meant they were looking at liabilities quickly exceeding assets.
The US housing bubble burst earlier but lenders were using it as a model for how the UK might develop - figures I saw this week were that nearly 1 in 6 US homeowners had negative equity in terms of value of their homes against mortgage borrowings and it was nearly one in three for those who had bought in last few years.
114 At least the Bush family brought morals to the whitehouse after the Clinton years, well anyways thats what they said in 2000, and is their claim !
114 - Obama has been helped here by the debates. Not because he ‘won’ them but because he reassured people that he had what it took to be President. That has brought over undecided who were concerned about him personally (this is similar to Reagan in 1980).
As Freidrich indicates this insulates him to a degree if a national security issue arises. IMHO the only chance McCain has is a terrorist attack on domestic soil that completely changes the debate. A bin Laden video or an attack on Iran would not do it. They are too distant and the election would still be about the economy. Plus an attack on Iran would highlight the disaster that Iraq has been, turning off Americans sick of foreign wars.
The only other chance McCain has is to come up with a credible economic plan and hammer away at it for the next month. It must have differences with Bush policies and make the election about the future (who can restore American greatness) rather than the past. This seems though a very long-shot.
For the first time it seems an Obama landslide, a 10-point victory, is eminently possible. In a worst case scenario for the GOP the Democrats could end up with 62/3 Senate seats and a 100 seat majority in the House.
118 My impression (I could be wrong) is that most UK mortgage lenders have been more conservative than their American counterparts.
what do people think of this, Obama to be arrested? http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/urgent-big-story-about-to-break-we-are-one-step-closer-to-rezko-giving-obama-up-to-federal-prosecutors/
http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/
Diego/Hotline tracking poll:
Obama 50 (+2) McCain 40 (-1)
Obama is now on the verge of 50% in the RCP tracker.
121 - I thought one of the major problems was that it is easier for US mortgage holders to default. They can just “hand in the keys”.
In the UK there is more incentive to keep the mortgage going, because if the house isn’t sufficient to cover the debt the bank can come after your other assets.
112 Answer into ether - different conditions in US market (fixed rates through term, loan against property not person). Concern is when commercial market crashes?
Negative Equity is not necessarily a problem in itself - its effect is as much psychological as real in the short term. There is a potential problem with rolling over mortgages if the borrower gets nervous, but in practice if the debt can be serviced then it is in the mortgage givers interest to keep the deal going.
#121 With their lending but not necessarily their leverage?
Thanks to Ken and madasafish for your responses.
Mind you, I’m begining to wish I hadn’t asked the question……
The problem in the US was that people were given mortgages that they would have no hope of servicing in even the slightest downturn - it was the people being lent to, not the value of the assets themselves that was the problem (other than that they determined the size of the mortgage).
The problem in the UK is that people were lent amounts that were almost the total value of their house (or greater). When the market began to crash “mark to market” meant that the value of the lenders creditors had to be downgraded. In the UK the immediate problem isn’t that people can’t pay (default rates remain very low). It’s the values that have to be reported on the balance sheet.
124 I think it varies State by State.
In this country, I think that relatively few people are actually aware that a lender can pursue them for any shortfall, for up to 12 years after the lender’s taken possession.
127 This crisis has actually brought home to me just how risky banking/mortgage lending is. Even the most conservative building societies are basically borrowing short, from depositors, to lend long. Depositors can get their money back either instantly, or by giving relatively short notice.
126 agreed - problem is that when a recession strikes and owners are forced to sell. Govt, I believe, recently changed policy so mortgages up to £x are paid after 3 months employment, so reducing risk of forced sales for a large proportion (can’t remember x). Alternative is for state to take over mortgage and buy equity in property with repayment on sale or over time when owner can pay. Problem there is that government borrowing is already heading way too high.
102. Let’s take B&B.
In the first half of 2008, they had arrears in excess of 3 months in
2.29% of their mortgage book (FY2007 1.48%)
1.78% in their organic book (FY2007 1.2%)
5.11% in their acquired book (FY2007 3.04%)
The acquired book is roughly a quarter of the total book.
Credit impairment for 1H 2008 (fraud, provisions for future losses)
£75 million (1H 2007 £5.3 mn) total impairment was £101 mn at 1H 2008
Loan to value for BTL is 69% and avg loan value £122,000
Overall market (all CML)
BTL arrears 1.1%
Normal mortgages arrears 1.33%
B&B’s balance sheet at the end of 2007 was as follows:
Liabilities
£24 billion in customer deposits
£22 billion in debt securities
Shareholders equity of £1.2 billion
Assets
£51 billion (of which loans £40 billion)
Shareholders equity after the rights issue took their capital to £1.5 billion.
This means that to get to a zero capital position, the loan book needed to fall by 3.75% - note that is outright losses. So we are talking about arrears of perhaps three times that 11%? Of course B&B still had a structured finance portfolio of £747 mn. A one-third fall in this would have taken a sixth of the shareholders equity.
The failure of B&B might seem harsh. But with every bank watching the possibility of outright failure and exposure to weak banks like hawks, any sign of weakness is bad. No doubt B&B were cast out from the interbank markets. Also their prominent and early posiion probably meant their lending had already shortened dramatically. Their large fraud provision in the first half probably did them no favours as liars loans are particularly unpopular (although this was only £18 mn of the credit provisioning). So though they claimed a LTV ratio of 69%, I suspect that people worried it was worse. The clear deterioration in both their organic and acquired books in the first half also spooked the market.
Remember one can go bust because of liquidity (no one will lent to you) as opposed to going bust because no one will lend to you because you are insolvent (assets worth less than liabilities).
116. History has shown that black political leaders are far more likely to be assassinated by another black person.
130. Sean - that’s essentially what banks do all the time, i.e. taking in short-term funds and lending them out at longer maturities. Banking is a confidence-driven business, as we are now remembering…
131 - Of course normally in a recession you would hope that the effect would be mitigated by lower interest rates making mortgages less of a burden.
Yes, I should have added - the problem for NR, HBOS, A&L, B&B was
1) Too much dependence on interbank
2) Business models (target markets) that were unattractive (too much too late for NR, BTL for B&B) that made them vulnerable when the capital markets went into meltdown.
133. And it’s often forgotten - maybe because of the conspiracy theories - that JFK was killed by a communist sympathiser who had lived in Moscow and may have been/wanted to be a spy. RFK was killed by a Palestinian radical. At least as many of the political assassinations have come from the left. Malcolm X was killed by fellow radicals.
123. I wouldn’t trust the RCP tracker anyway. Nate Silver has pointed out how arbitrary their inclusion and exclusion of polls has been, often to an extent that favours McCain.
132 - this is the problem. Nobody can rely on traditional assessments of Bank strength. So the lenders do all the sums, decide that they’ll be ok, and then let their worries about the market overall, overrule what would be their usual decision.
The irony is that the desire to protect their own position has resulted in banks taking counterproductive decisions on lending. If the banks could get together collectively to ride out the crisis they’d probably be alright. But they have comprehensively failed to do this - the repeated failure to get the Interbank market going is the most obvious example.
NO bank can survive this on their own - they have to work together.
It’s the same with the International response - too much “i’m alright jack” and not enough “we’re in this together”.
133 Is that USA history ?
Martin Luther King wasn`t.
105. I think if such a thing had happened most British conservatives would realise they are liberals in the greater scheme of things.
139 Ultimately, if you won’t lend, while having to pay out interest to your creditors, you’ll surely go bust.
139. Standard free rider problem. If everyone participates, everyone takes a hit. If I cheat and refuse to lend, but everyone else lends, I avoid the hit and everyone else takes a slightly larger hit. Through induction we conclude no one participates.
141 I don’t doubt it. But think of the psycopaths, fanatics, and sexual perverts who’d have the chance to act out their fantasies, and vent their hatreds in such a situation. They amount to only 1-2% of the population, but in numerical terms, that’s still quite a lot.
70 WV firmer than Colorado for Obama?!
143 - Classic Market failure. If the banks don’t get their act together then they can have no complaints if the Govts step in. Whether they are strong banks or weak banks, they’ll all deserve to suffer.
Trouble is that we’ll all suffer with them.
102 112
Mortgage arrears:
In the 1990-92 period repossessions peaked at 0.8% in 1991 - baving nearly doubled from 1990 and nearly halved by 1993.
Interest rates were much higher 15% and falling and largely contributed to the rise..
..http://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=63cemeGw-jUC&oi=fnd&pg=PR4&dq=%22Ford%22+%22Home+Ownership+in+a+Risk+Society:+A+Social+Analysis+of+…%22+&ots=QGbqVNe4Hp&sig=zABDD8o1HsBldqCjUasG9u9Lcs8#PPA23,M1
This time it is excess borrowing…then multiples averaged 2.2 x income!
So lower rates are offset by higher multiples and a credit crunch.
If See an Analysis on N Rock written early this year..
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1893.html
82 I wonder if Neville Chamberlain tried that argument in 1940. It’s the logical extension no matter how things develop stick with the incumbent.
141 The British Blackshirts didn’t draw from their support solely from Conservatives I believe, founded by an ex-Labour minister, drawing support from working class eastender thugs as well as the upper class twits.
The Strong Leader tendency, Facsist or Communist, seems to attract a type, irrespective of presumed politico-economic class.
138 - You’re right about the RCP bias, but once the D/H poll is include Obama will have a bigger lead (7.7%) even on this measure than at any point during the campaign. It would be even larger if they included the DKos poll.
Also, their national average is less susceptible to bias than their state ones. There are a lot more questionable pollsters at the state level. While Nate’s approach is more accurate (taking into account sample sizes and quality of pollster) the RCP average is still useful in giving a broad-brush snapshot of the race. It seems Obama’s national lead has gone from the 4-7 point range to the 5-9 point range.
132
Take banks.
And Mark to market. If the Bank decides to take and hold an Asset until its term expires, I belive they are allowed to hold it at face value.. even although if it was a trading asset and marked to market then its market value could be 50% of face value..
Hence holding to term means no losses are booked.
So what better way to hide losses..?
Or sell the loan book to an unconsolidated company set up in the Cayman Islands which is accounted for as Enron did.
Lots of ways to hide lossess…
148 - I’m pretty sure he did
105 Not sure of that. In context the Germans did try a recruitment drive amongst British POWs. After a flea in their ear they found fifty assorted criminals, drunks and fraudsters to join the Waffen SS. Not sure they ever saw action as they predictably proved more of a nuisance to the German civilian population than the Allies.
149 In all likelihood, even many Blackshirts wouldn’t have signed up for the SS.
There was however, a very strange Fascist/Nazi sub-culture, made up of people who regarded Mosley as being a secret Jew, or at any rate, a “Kosher Fascist” in the pay of the International Zionist conspiracy. These were people who really did want to exterminate the Jews, and they’d have been only too keen to join.
148 Gordon Brown would be eaten by the Beast in that situation - at the very worst if the G7 / G20 / IMF fail to restore a working international financial system, with the collateral damage that causes to international trade, pound crashes and imports dry up, shortages of goods perhaps calls for rationing etc, he wouldn’t be acceptable as leader of a national government.
Neville was one of the better Chancellors, Britain in the thirties was a lot better off than many other countries as result of his policies and his sensible Keynesian investments in rebuilding factories and infrastructure probably was key to Britain’s survival 1939 to 1940 before lend aid etc, kicked in.
Continuing the theme in 148.
It is an argument often deployed and it is a terrible one. The worst course whenever a crisis erupts is to stick with the person who got you into it. Because the person who got you into it will never be able to act totally objectively and will carry to much baggage from trying to justify their previous actions.
What most crises need is a “year zero”, because only then can the country start moving forward, rather than forever looking back.
re 138 and 150 - This all adds to the point I repeatedly make that ALL POLL AVERAGING IS RUBBISH.
You can only look at trends from the same pollster using the same methodology.
We should not allow what has become a neat journalistic short-hand to be seen as a science.
If it was a case with Gordon that he was an economic master, but had just come unstuck in more routine matters then there would be a case for keeping him. But he wasn’t.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081010_red_alert_g_7_geopolitics_politics_and_financial_crisis_open_access
New Uni of Ciccinatti/Ohio Newspapers poll for Ohio :
McCain 48% .. Obama 46%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/ohio-oct-11.html
157. Mike, have you heard if we’ll be getting a YouGov/Sunday Times poll tonight?
157 - Yes but it’s still nonsense Mike. Averaging polls isn’t “comparing two different polls with different methodology”. Averaging polls only fails if they can’t be trusted to move together.
It is true that averaging is pointless if you are using it to determine the “real” level of support. But it is not at all unjustified if your main purpose is to identify trends (whilst filtering out the effect of rogues)
157 - You are right here re: RCP because their average changes as the pollsters change. However a rolling average including the same polling companies gives a general trend across a number of polls. Obviously this is very broad brush given that some pollsters are better than other. However given the 6 national trackers give Obama a lead of 4 - 12 points it is likely his lead is somewhere between these points.
159 - http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2213761/is-there-a-case-for-suspending-the-markets.thtml
re 163. No it doesn’t give you a general trend. Just look at the polling ahead of every UK general election since the 1980s.
In each case the pollster at one extreme was closest to the right result. Averaging just diluted the best polling.
Averaging would only be valid if a range of pollsters carried out the same survey using the same questions worded in the same way and with the same number-crunching procedures and carried out fieldwork in precisely the same time period using the same interview methodology.
This England game is a joy. Has anybody a freshly coated wall to stare at?
132. Ken, many thanks to you and also everyone else for your replies to my question in post 102.
re 161. I am not aware of any specific polls tonight but I would be surprised if we did not see one or perhaps two.
Normally the Sunday Times YouGov comes out on the second Sunday and I would not be surprised to see either ICM or BPIX.
Latest Gallup tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 51%
Note - Yesterday - M-41/O-51.
re 169. So the McCain recovery has started!
Thanks Mike.
168. Mike, would you say we are back in a normal polling period or has the economic crisis created an extension of the conference season unpredictability?
165 - But there is no way of telling beyond doubt which methodology is correct before the election. It is worth peering into polls and making a guess as to which is most accurate (you do this very well with our polls), and your rule re: Labour support has held firm. However in the US elections there is little evidence whether Gallup or Rasmussen (for example) are more likely to be right. Given this, it is only reasonable to look at all the polls.
Averaging is a very blunt instrument (failing to account for different methodologies and sample sizes) but gives an idea as to where the race is. To my mind the range is as important as the average and is what I look for (as well as trends of course).
What is most important though (as I’m sure you would agree) is transparency. If we can see the demographics, cross-tabs etc of a poll we can come to a much better judgment about how accurate it is.
143. 146. Yes - this is the root of the problem. In the old days, it would have been overcome by the BoE calling all the banks in and thrashing out a deal to restore order. But now there are complications - 1) BoE no longer has the same position it had 2) ‘competition policy’ may get in the way 3) there is a major international dimension , the result of massive rises in cross-border interbank lending in recent years (especially in dollars).
The latter issue makes a coordinated international response essential. And last week’s rate cut notwithstanding, that is emerging only slowly. The pitiful efforts of the Eurozone are especially notable - only a few weeks ago scoffing at what they saw as ‘an American problem’, now incoherent and incompetent - e.g. Berlusconi’s ridiculous outburst.
165 - that’s completely irrelevant to the point i was making. I specifically said that averaging was pointless if you were trying to ascertain the true level of support. That has NOTHING to do with identifying trends.
174 - The “scoffing” point is particularly notable. Same thing in a slightly different context - just look at the self-congratulatory pieces in the media, around the time of Northern Rock, Bear Sterns, and all the multi-billion pound writedowns from big banks, from …
…Goldman Sachs! Don’t look so clever now, do they? This whole thing is a crisis of Banking, not of individual banks, and it’s about time the better placed ones started to (belatedly) recognised this.
176. I think few people who have worked in finance will have much sympathy for Goldmans. But don’t write them off just yet.
HSBC won’t look so good if a whole host of other big banks are effectively nationalised amid widespread suspension of competition laws, and they find themselves competing against National Govts desperately trying to make their money back and sell their stakes profitably back into the private sector!
176 In economics, as in so much else, pride cometh before a fall.
178.”HSBC won’t look so good if a whole host of other big banks are effectively nationalised amid widespread suspension of competition laws, and they find themselves competing against National Govts desperately trying to make their money back and sell their stakes profitably back into the private sector!”
So effectively, if the Banking system does not get its act together quickly, we could see government intervention in weaker banks undermining the stronger banks? And then what happens?
Interesting to check your betting positions on the Harrogate and Knaresborough seat at the next election. The current MP is standing down and therefore creates an opportunity for change.
A new dynamic has come into play, which i noticed and found truely shocking today in the Yorkshire post about a Liberal Democrat Deputy mayor:
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Internet-trap-caught-deputy-mayor.4582455.jp
RBS to take decision on recapitalisation as early as this weekend.
180 - The stronger banks kick themselves for being so short-sighted about the strength of their own positions?
183. We all know what looks likely to happen come monday as it was leaked to the times last night! They are going to nationilse the lot! Hope you don’t have any bank shares!
From previous thread 115 Nick
I am baffled: throughout the primaries you heaped praise on Clinton who ran a nasty racist campaign. Now you heap praise on McCain who is running a nasty racist campaign.
Do I see a pattern here?
McCain has an awful reputation in Washington for his arrogance and bad temper; his use of four-letter words to describe his wife and his threats to a woman at a gambling table are well documented. He is thoroughly disliked by those who have had to work with him.
He chose for his running mate a woman who is quite unhinged and appears to have a poor moral code. Why would a Labour politician do anything other than support a liberalish Democrat who will offer a change from Bushboy?
Answer: Nick Palmer, you are a New Labour MP. It speaks volumes for you and your party.
Malcolm [was a member of the Labour Party for 39 years]
183 To be fair, I don’t see how HSBC can be blamed for being prudent and well-run.
184 I doubt it. The consequences for our economy would be just too damaging.
186 - I’m not blaming them at all. What i am saying is that they’ve got an interest (i won’t go as far as “duty”) to be at the centre of finding a solution to the problems other banks are in.
Because as I suggested above, this is not simply a crisis of individual banks, it is a crisis of Banking and the whole basic banking model. And as such, as a bank, they (as an example) are a part of it and will ultimately suffer if a solution isn’t found.
Interbank lending is a market solution to a fundamental part of Banking operations. There are only two solutions to the failing of a market solution. Govt intervention or abolition of the market, and with it the banking system as we know it.
154
Arnold Leese, the Imperial Fascist League, fascinating character, my wife’s elder sister’s husband, a policeman in Guildford arrested him when he was interned. Leese then smashed up his cell setting fire to his bed!
183.Been following the comments you and Ken have been posting on the threads today with great interest on this. We have the G7 meeting this weekend, and I imagine that like the UK government, the others are holding meetings with the heads of various banks in their own countries to find the best way to try and solve the problems.
Am I being too naive to suggest that those Bank bosses should have been invited to at least part of this summit this weekend?
Not having any economic background, always a bit nervous of asking what might seem like a daft question on here to those that do know their economics. Have the same problem when it comes to the details of polling as well.
190 - Pay more attention to Ken than to me, I’m sure his knowledge is vastly more expert. I post my thoughts but i hope that people will pick me up when i’m writing total nonsense.
This’ll cheer up Mike!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/7660981.stm
re 181. Did you ever read what your PPC did in Watford Martin?
You and Roger perform a great function on this site - whenever I think that I might just vote tactically here in Tory target seat number 67, I think of you two.
186.But at least Lloyds tried to step in with Northern Rock, and then HBOS. Surely stronger banks stepping in to sort out their weaker counterparts is better than part intervention from the government, with the knock on effect of those weaker banks gaining an unfair advantage over their previously stronger rivals?
And then we start to see runs on the shares of the previously stronger banks, and the cycle continues?
193 WRT seat betting at the election will any Bookie be offering odds or taking bets on all 650 individually.
194 - Yes I agree. Lloyds have done a sterling job at the expense of their own share price. But they need some help!
That was my point - unless the stronger banks get involved in being part of the solution then everyone - the banks and the taxpayer will lose out as the Govt is forced to act.
191.Alex, take the compliment, you are both explaining things clearly and concisely in a way that makes it easier for us non economic posters to understand.
Now away to feed some very hungry teenagers who thought it was more fun to go and play footie than watch their national teams efforts this afternoon.
193. All i said was i was truely shocked, I did not call names or anything or add anything to that. Indeed, I may have been doing you or others a favour in regards your/others betting strategy as that may have been under the radar with regards that individual seat.
I seem to remember no comment when somebody posted the Tory link to a similar case recently.
You vote for who you want, nothing I say or Roger says will make the slightest difference - I’ll go e-mail to other anti- LD websites now!
196.Agreed, missed your post. So instead of a blinkered and internal discussion among smaller groups of banks in each country with their *political* masters, how about a global summit involving them all in an attempt to reach a global solution to what we are being told is a global problem?
189 He wrote what is, I believe, still the standard work on Camel diseases.
He trained his pet cat to give the Nazi salute, and was arrested again, in 1947, for helping to organise escape routes for Waffen SS members. His wife, who shared his views, left their house in her will to Colin Jordan, the Fuhrer of the World Union of National Socialists. Had he retained it (it was in Notting Hill) it would be worth a fortune today.
Colin Jordan’s political career was brought to an end in 1976, after he was found guilty of stealing a pair of womens’ knickers from Marks and Spencer.
198
Your kids seem eminently sensible. Prices for such stuff are getting out of control.
I had to think twice before begrudgingy coughing up £95 for a good seat at Lords for the Ashes match next summer.(assuming I actally get it) If it wasnt the Australians, I think the MCC would be in a bit of bovver. Sport is going to catch a cold too. I wouldnt be surprised if a decent seat at Wembley is £80 and that for 90 mins football. My Lords ticket by comparison seems a bargain….
re 202. Next Saturday I am being entertained by someone who “bought” two seats at the Emirates Stadium. They cost him more £30000 and his “ownership” lasts for just four years. On top of that you have to watch the Arsenal.
I think most of those who read the geopolitical runes quietly realise that the question isn’t whether Iran gets hit but when. That, and whether it’s an Israeli/US/or joint strike. Neither country can let Iran get the bomb, and the “negotiation” track isn’t going anywhere.
Before the election, though?
I doubt it. Precisely because it would be regarded as playing politics.
If Obama wins however, I expect the strike to come before his inauguration. Neither the Israelis nor Bush (rightly or wrongly) will trust an Obama administration to do the deed. So they will act while they can.
201. The perfect pastime for a would-be Fuhrer of the master race.
Just to let everyone at pbCOM know- I failed to beat my course record of 132 at Hinksey Heights, Oxford.
Latest ARSE (BUTT)/Daily FAB tracker :
McCain 42.4% .. Obama 51%
Note - Yesterday - M-43.1/50.8
…………………………
ARSE (BUTT) is sponsored by the Daily Felines Adore Broxtowe
At a Iowa rally the Obama camp deny that one of their team ate all the pies :
http://neatorama.cachefly.net/images/2008-04/xu-jirong-fat-cat.jpg
Donations to :
http://www.cats.org.uk/
‘Beat’ being that you managed to get a higher number, or a lower number?!
190. etc.
G7 - The governments will have consulted with their banks. There is no need for delegations to go along, the real work is always done by lower level (but senior) civil servants who will no doubt be in contact with relevant bods. I dont hold out much hope of any concerted action, but someone will hopefully remind Alistair D that shouting fire doesnt help (seizing assets fine, saying you are going to sue and making accusations bad. Naughty Gordon.)
Generally the weaker banks will want the stronger ones to agree to take some capital too. Being seen as weak and needing capital tends to lead to deposit flight. Maybe not in this case, but certainly in previous crises. Also having the government as a shareholder is always a pain in the backside. Always whingeing about not enough lending to small businesses, too many foreclosures. HSBC (if their capital base is strong enough) probably wouldnt mind competing against banks with government shareholders. My guess is that they will end up taking money anyway as part of some rescue mergers offshore (in the US for example).
Watch Morgan Stanley. It is a key piece in the next couple of moves in the financial crisis. If it goes, then the pressure really ratchets up. We desperately need some stability in financial markets - interbank mainly. For this the Brown plan writ large is a sensible step, but everyone should contribute. I hadnt heard about the problems with the Letters of Credit, but knowing how bad the interbank market is, I am not surprised, but this is doing serious damage to the real economy. Gordon really missed a trick when he stepped on the French plan. If anything I would prefer a solid EU response - but I fear even more incoherence. The Yanks and Canadians will act, but we need more from europe.
ChristinaD, ask questions, it’s the only way to get answers. Most of the time there are very few silly questions. I certainly didnt find NickP’s questions about why interbank was silly, not the ones about the G7. I certainly dont pretend to have all the answers, I havent been following some aspects as closely as I might have and I am not a participant in the latest shenanigans except as depositor and investor. I have lots of questions myself.
203 - Which team do you have to watch them beat?
204. I completely agree.
This is worrying. It implies Israel is ready to attack, and the Box on the Euphrates attack showed that they have the means. The clock is counting down, it probably won’t happen before the election but sooner rather than later seems to be the case. I just hope there are some secret negotiations with Iran that are having more success than the public ones.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/iran.israelandthepalestinians1
201.
“he was found guilty of stealing a pair of womens’ knickers from Marks and Spencer.”
A knackered knicker nicker?
Ave it is now projecting that McCain might not win by a landslide…….
213 - Y’think!
“re 181. Did you ever read what your PPC did in Watford Martin?”
I must admit the main site for reporting political smut of this nature is invariably LDV - though surprisingly they are not covering the Harrogate incident. Funny that!
After listening to the crowds at GOP rallies, how about an….
assassination, that would stop Obama becoming presedent.
215. The Harrogate incident is appalling, but it points to an individual’s perversion and criminality. The Watford incident is disturbing because it shows how a current of resentment and anger that is quite common in certain sections of Conservatism can boil over into a campaign of hate against political opponents.
204. There will be no joint strike. It will be one or the other, if at all.
The Israelis had a way of maximising their strike potential but this may have been lost in recent months.
217. On the one hand, the Harrogate incident is one of a string of such incidents, although not all of the same party. A former Lib Dem councillor in Malvern Hills was convicted for using a council owned laptop in a similar fashion. On the other, the PPC in Watford does appear to be a one off. Whilst it remains so, I would be much more worried about the persistent offences.
199 you know you can’t criticise the LDs on here
217. 219. I think reasonable people would agree that all political parties have their share of perverts, crooks and lunatics.
219. Fair comment. Let’s hope the string of incidents stops, and the Oakley incident remains a one-off.
Just toted up all odds on GOP states on oddschecker,and deduced a 369-169 victory for Obama is the Electoral College. 375-163 is the wisdom of vote 538,on a 5.3% popular vote lead for Obama
DETROIT, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Chrysler LLC said on Saturday that it is looking at a number of global partnerships around the world but declined to comment specifically on reports of a possible merger with General Motors Corp.
“217. The Watford incident is disturbing because it shows how a current of resentment and anger that is quite common in certain sections of Conservatism”
Hmmm and that gutter press style of inuendo above is exactly what LDv does all the time about all incidents other than those involving LDs
223. I suspect any merger between the two is too late. They’d be better off doing a chapter 11 and then merging. The car companies have massive excess capacity, too many pension/healthcare costs, too much debt and they make rubbish cars.
The following article, written by a junior hospital doctor on a Doctors web site (www.doctors.net.uk) appeared in JANUARY 2008.
It says it all: but the real question is that if it was obvious to an intelligent amateur, why did the politicians do nothing?
If you’re investing in stock or bond markets, can I suggest that you urgently read up on credit default swaps (CDSs). These are the most common type of credit derivative, with around $40 trillion-worth currently issued.
It looks like CDSs will be the big story of 2008 as the credit crisis really bites. Essentially, CDSs are an insurance against default on corporate or other bonds, and are widely used by hedge funds and banks. They can be used to hedge risk, or as a way of shorting a company. The problem is that some of the companies issuing CDSs do not have sufficient funds to meet their obligations in the event of a default. Given the size of the CDS market, this will have huge repercussions. The first casualties will be investment banks like Merrill Lynch, who will announce further large liabilities in the next few months. Other banks, hedge funds and pension funds will follow.
CDSs are a complicated concept, and I’m only just beginning to get my head round them. I think the complexity is part of the reason this isn’t reported in the mainstream media.
I’d suggest you read these articles:
Wikipedia article on CDSs (a bit complex in parts)
International Herald Tribune article about CDSs
Financial Times article about the recent downgrade of CDS issuer ACA
I for one won’t be buying any banking stocks for in the near future!
160 New Uni of Ciccinatti/Ohio Newspapers poll for Ohio :
McCain 48% .. Obama 46%
Worst poll of the week for Obama? Ohio is certainly proving difficult for him.
Do we expect any UK polls tonight?
39 John L
“Because McCain has a certain amount of baggage here, Palin should launch it.”
You jest, of course.
Malcolm
221. Politics does seem to attract a disproportionate amount of perverts and lunatics it would seem. Certainly in my experience anyway.
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac ordered to buy up underperforming mortgage bonds to the tune of 10s of billions a month.
This is separate from the 700 billion bailout though they my sell some of their own bad debt under that same $700 billion bailout.
Thus the US Treasury commitment grows.
228 An outlier? There was one in Minnoseta 3/4 days ago showing the GOP 1% ahead,whilst every other poll in that state for a long time has shown Obama increasingly safe.
Mind you,Ohio is a tough nut to crack-I recall the vote 538 avaerage was an Obama c.3% lead over the last week (?)
As someone on here did point out-it is perfectly posiible for the Democratic Party to win nationally without carying Ohio (Only happened once since WW2,1960 ),but the GOP have never,ever won without carrying Ohio
230. I actually suspect not - its justmuch more likely for them to be caught and outed - and generally quite right. If you enter the profession you seek publicity/fame, etc - notoriety is just the corollary.
Pretty Straight sort of guy rumour finally destroyed
225
No real future.
Just an aside on the Lehman CDS auction; do not forget that Lehman brothers will have owned - through its principle trading operations, its position as a market-maker, etc - large quantities of equities. The value of these will have fallen by a third or so in the last few weeks, which won’t have done the recovery rates any favours.
Race open for new Lib Dem leader - BBC
There’s a tasty news stroy to knock the global crisis off the front pages NOT!
232 Yep, it’s a massively important State at election time.
IIRC, 538.com gives Obama a 58% chance of becoming POTUS, should he lose Ohio. In the case of McCain, I believe it’s approx 1.5%.
226. The theory was that the buyers would be sensible about counterparty risk and while the VaR models showed that everything netted out, it was fine.
1) Counterparty risk was bigger than expected.
2) The models were not good at dealing with liquidity problems, fat tailed distributions and adverse correlations (usually associated with liquidity problems)
Both of these were obvious from LTCM in 1998. Regulators just said “everything will be fine. lots of models show it will be fine.” Common sense goes by the board.
Of course, the CDS market would not be spreading doom and destruction were it not for the US sbu prime market blowing up and showering everyone with losses and leading to a liquidity crisis, made worse by CDS, and then feeding back to liquidity.
Once again I say “VaR and BIS II were bad ideas”.
Off topic but relevant to some posts about mortgage arrears and debt.
This link is truly shocking and a terrible indictment of the Brown years of debt.
http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debt-statistics.html
and this ain’t pretty
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html
But it’s OK because we are well-placed for a downturn, with low debt. Oh and there will be no more boom and bust.
236. No. Such positions can be effectively hedged quite simply and I do not believe that the trustees in bankruptcy were that incompetent. Even quite complex instruments based on mortgages can and should have been hedged.
240 “Total secured lending on dwellings at the end of August 2008 stood at £1,216bn. This has increased 6.0% in the last 12 months.”
Whilst the value of that security had dropped 12% in that period…..
238. 70.5% for Obama, 1.16% for McCain.
Very O/T
X-factor betting.
Not over yet but I have had a bit of 8/1 on Diana Vickers to be the outright winner.
That price will not last very much longer after her performance tonight and the judges comments
231. Yes, the US public debt is going to balloon over the next couple of years, in a slightly attenuated version of the Japanese public finance deterioration of the 1990s. For this to be manageable, either interest rates are going to have to stay very low for a very long time or the US will have to inflate the principal of the debt away. Probably the former…
234. Blair a liar? No surprise there, surely.
242. An additional risk factor for UK banks re. mortgage debt is that in the early 1990s, a lot of defaults were absorbed by insurers via mortgage indemnity policies. That won’t happen this time.
243 Oops, quite correct, it’s a day or two since I last checked - these figures are moving very fast in Obama’s favour.
244. The overall standard isn’t great this year but Diana looks like a decent bet.
228 I have just looked at You Gov, and unless its my pc there is a fault on the part showing published results. I also believe?? that there will be another marginals poll (I think I read it somewhere). Mike will know better than I though.
Hmm. Raikonnen’s evens for the fastest lap tomorrow, Massa about 4/1 and Hamilton 7/2 (Betfair odds). Is it me, or is Raikonnen’s price too tight, compared to the others?
Put a few quid on Massa and Hamilton.
250. Raikonnen has taken the fastest lap honour on 10 occasions this season so i’m not surprised the odds on him are tight
250 Good spot MD, Raikonnen has achieved very little over the past 3 months.
re 249. My understanding is that the YouGov marginals poll will now be for the week after next.
I was expecting some surveys tonight and am surprised that nothing has appeared. Usually we get something by this time. Maybe the papers are so overwhelmed with other coverage that polls have been put on hold for a week or so.
This is such an odd period anyway that we need things to settle down before getting too excited by polls.
251, that is a good record…. maybe I should back him as well then:p
Knowing my luck AN Other will end up getting it if I do:p
It’s 9.00pm and no sign of any polls, so it’s now unlikely there will be any in the “Sundays”.
251, by the way, when was the last time Raikonnen was fastest? Wondering if it was during his strong start to the season, he’s certainly hit a rocky patch of late.
256 Dan’s quite right - whilst Raikonnen has been having a disappointing season, he’s certainly been racking up the fastest laps:
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2008/10/8481.html
17. Ken - the more I see on this the worse it gets.
I have mentioned before that Barclays has a gross derivatives portfolio of £29 trillion (as at end 2007).
That represented 10% of the world’s outstanding derivatives contracts ($600 trillion).
Barclays CDS exposure is £2.5 trillion, also 10% of the world’s CDS contracts.
We now know that the Lehmans collapse means those who offered protection against the collapse via CDS contracts are going to have to shell out £200bn.
Barclay Capital are such a big player their risk profile is quite possibly going to be typical of the market. In other words they could well have to cough up £20 billion, against shareholder equity of £32bn.
RBS have an even bigger derivatives portfolio. Their exposure could be £30bn.
That already takes care of the government’s £50bn capital injection.
The Icelandic banks have failed. There will undoubtedly be CDS liabilities there.
There is the real prospect of GM and Ford failing - CDS liabilities I understand of $1 trillion. If so, I guess the UK banks will take the hit for 25% of that.
There will be plenty of other victims lining up for CDS payouts before this is over.
If I am right I cannot see the sense in the UK taxpayer underwriting the losses: our grandchildren will be paying them forever more. Better to let the banks go and take their toxic assets with them.
BIS global derivatives estimates:
http://staging.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0805.pdf?noframes=1
Checked the official website.
Last season Hamilton won and had the fastest lap, Massa and Raikonnen were 7th and 8th respectively in fastest lap times.
I think the Ferrari is probably slightly better than the McLaren this time around, but not by too much. Last year seems to be the first time the Japanese GP was held in Fuji rather than Suzuka, so hopefully history will repeat itself.
244 - I put £5 on Diana Vickers at 9.4/1 myself - that was last week. It’s looking a good bet now. I only ever do fun gambling at very tiny stakes though…
Sorry for clogging the thread, here’s a link I forgot to put in before:
http://www.formula1.com/results/season/2007/784/6451/fastest_laps.html
Fastest lap times for 2008 are here:
http://www.formula1.com/results/season/2008/dhl_fastest_laps.html
248 “Alexandra, Diana and Laura are the strongest. Laura a fantastic voice I would love to work with (but ditch the dress!). Not sure if Diana will survive some of the categories they will have to attack later in the series. Bands very weak, the boys not much better.”
Summary of Mrs Marquee Mark’s take on X Factor. She always picks the winner after about two weeks (having been a female music producer in Nashville gives her a certain insight!!!)
I’ll keep you posted on whether her views change.
off the topic but I notice some agonising from the conservative ranks, just read this comment thread:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/10/parris-and-heff.html#comments
The big political question now must be how the cons regroup and work out a revised strategy.
O/t On Canadia Election. Don’t think this has been posted but it shows a very messy start to an interview with the Liberal leader Dion. Liberals have been making gains recently, will this damage them?
Could be a language issue but surely every politician before an election is primed for the question “what would you have done that x hasn’t?”
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/playpoliticalcom/2008/10/please-start-th.html
262, a second and a half off the pace is a massive margin though, and Raikonnen was putting in good performances at the end of last season. Maybe it’s just a circuit that doesn’t suit Ferrari/suits McLaren?
I know the McLaren was the better car last year (just about) but not a second and a half faster.
Yougov. Tory lead down to 10 per cent cf 19 per cent last time. Brown’s approval rating up but still not good
More on poll. Lab on 33
Comment Central: The secret reason why Obama’s winning:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/10/the-drudge-repo.html
268 So Tories on 43 then - Lib Dems must be down somewhat?
119 dez
Great ironic post; the most immoral administration since the nineteenth century [Nixon is about par.] Many of us feel morals include other things than zippers on pants.
Malcolm
267, 268, sharp fall. I’d want to see corroborating polls (although we’re in such a volatile situation I’m not sure any will be valid until things calm down).
And for those seeking to slap me with Smithson’s Law, I’d remind them that I said the same sort of thing when the Tories were on 52%.
267. 268. source?
A European commission spokesman for Mandelson said last week that he went only to a drinks party on the yacht. But after The Sunday Times was told by an authoritative source that he had been an overnight guest on the boat, the spokesman said: “He exercised his role as commissioner despite his friendship with Mr Deripaska.” He refused to say whether Mandelson had stayed on board.
Mandelson, who was appointed business secretary in the government reshuffle, now faces calls to disclose the exact hospitality he received. He denies a conflict of interest and says the changes in duties were “routine” EC matters.
Norman Baker, the Liberal Democrat MP, said: “He should not have been accepting hospitality from a billionaire who is a clear beneficiary of his policy decisions as European commissioner. It has long been one of Mandelson’s trademarks that he is fascinated by the very wealthy, but as trade commissioner – and now business secretary – he needs to be extremely careful about any potential conflicts of interests.”
For a few weeks a year, a small stretch of northeast Corfu becomes an exclusive enclave for some of the super-rich. Last August Mandelson was also holding court.
Sorry, missed half of the post…but see article in Sunday Times
266. Last year’s race was run in completely wet conditions, Ferrari screwed up at the start and had to change tyres early on, so they spent the entire race in the pack. lewis spent the entire race at the front, which partly explains the difference in pace.
273. I never post tosh when it comes to polls.
277. Never said it was just wondered where it came from.
Dan Smith only partly. Ferrari seem to have a problem in the rain where, while McLaren, overall, do not.
272 - I tend to agree, plus the Conservatives are still above 40 which suggests that the move is related to the crisis. We need to get beyond the turmoil before we can start making realistic judgments.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4926891.ece
ST POLL YOU GOV
Found it - it’s on th guardian web-site
oops meant the Times:))
The Mandy question is there too
YouGov also asked about Peter Mandelson’s return. By 41% to 17% people said it was a bad move, with 50% saying they still link him to spin and sleaze.
Times “The Conservative lead over Labour has halved from 19% to 10% over the past month. Labour is up seven points to 33%, its best showing since January, while the Tories are down three on 43%. The Liberal Democrats are two points down on 14%. ”
http://tinyurl.com/4lwtvg
258. The headline numbers of principal protected and the actual cost of the CDS are very different. While Lehman failed and cost 91 cents per Dollar, Fannie and Freddie CDS only cost 9 cents on the Dollar.
Just looking at Barclays overall derivatives portfolio doesnt tell you anything. Their portfolio of derivatives covering principal of £30 trillion could be having sold £15 trillion of protection against RBS defaulting and having bought £15 trillion of protection against RBS defaulting. This would mean that if RBS defaulted the loss would be the difference in strike price between the two contracts.
Indeed it is highly likely that a lot of the derivatives bought and sold by a single institution will go to offset their risks. So the Lehman’s CDS payment of US$360 billion will mean most institutions lose a bit or gain a bit, as they both bought and sold protection. There is an issue with counterparty risk, which is why this isnt a cakewalk, but nor should one big up the problem too much. Derivatives spread risk, so the concentration in one place shouldnt occur - unless someone has made some very foolish errors. (And I dont rule that out.)
I am deeply unhappy about the CDS market with the unknown element of risk transference, but I am more disturbed by the scale of Lehman’s losses.
Had a quick look -most of the damage is to the LDs. Other questions for what they are worth remain good for DC and bad for GB!
interesting poll - as widely expected voters gravitate to Labour - especially from Lib Dems who are down to 14. Even given the wall to wall and relatively positive coverage for Brown though the Tories are firmly above 40% - to get closer realistically labour have to start eating into the Tory vote as the Libs are surely at their floor on 14%.
The other questions are very very poor for Brown - whilst the overall picture is better for now for Labour, we are not yet in the grips of this thing as we surely will be and the majority conclude he is handlng it badly, they acted too slowly and they prefer the Tories to raise their standard of living and boradly support the free market - all hugely positive pollin wise for the Tories and bleak for Brown - it suggests whilst he has consolidated the natural 33% ‘base’ one would expect in an election for Labour (Foot aside), people will not tha k him if we get through this successfully and will dan him if things get worse.
Short term - Left wing posters will be more
than usual, right wingers like me slightly more visceral due to seeing Labour coming round the corner, albeit very distantly.
Long term - goodbye NuLabour
If accurate, and I don’t doubt you cheltboy, then the Tories are down two and Labour up two, which means the trend before the crisis is continues where in the previous two Yougov the Tories were- most recent first- 45 and 41 and Labour 31 in both.
The sort of movement which is probably as much statistical noise as anything more significant. labour hold and enhance their conference boost but the Tories stay in the low 40’s.
From the Times
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4926584.ece
“Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF’s managing director, warned that the measures so far “have not yet achieved the goal of stabilising markets and bolstering confidence”.
He said: “Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.”
LOCAL authorities across the UK were yesterday stunned to discover that Iceland is nothing more than a volcano surrounded by two million haddock.
As the volcano’s banks refused to pay out, councils said they were convinced Iceland was a small, landlocked country next to Belgium with a long history of expert financial management.
But after 15 minutes on the internet they confirmed it was nothing more than a slab of stinking lava populated by a handful of wilfully eccentric musicians and half a dozen heavily bearded trawler captains.
Julian Cook, director of finance at the Local Government Association, said: “I meant Luxembourg - shit!
“I suppose the haddock-shaped piece of lava with every new account was probably a clue.”
272 No sharp changes - Labour up 2%, Tories down 2% since last one (14% lead).
Previous YouGoves
44:31:15 - post Tory conf
41:31:16 - post Labour conf
44:24:20 - post Lib Dem conf
46:27:16 - pre-conferences
How slow can I be?
265. Yes Ted. Dion’s defence is that he didn’t understand the question - which is just about plausible - and the TV channel (CTV, which is openly backing the Tories) broke an agreement not to show the interview in full. In addition, Stephen Harper’s eagerness to make political capital out of Dion’s language difficulties has been regarded by some commentators as a blunder, especially given the signals it sends out to francophone voters.
In spite of all this, the Dion interview has stopped the Liberals’ momentum in English Canada, and the latest polls are showing the Conservative lead growing to 8-10%. I think another Harper minority is now extremely likely, with a slight possibility of a majority if the Liberal vote (notably in Ontario) evaporates on the day.
Watch out for an article on Canada tomorrow. Unfortunately I sent it to Double Carpet on Friday, so it’s now a little bit behind events.
Looking at the poll details and the Times commentary it all suggests that the Labour bounce is not so much against the Tories as because of the current uncertainty. But the public are pretty clear we’re in the proverbial for a long time - and all age groups, sex and regions show Cons or SNP in clear lead.
297 Labour regain a slight lead in the North and its neck and neck in Scotland effectively but yes, in general there is no clear surge to Labour
woah!
Just caught this in the Times
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4926316.ece
I quote at length in case it gets pulled like the story the other day
“THE government will tomorrow launch the biggest rescue of Britain’s high-street banks when the UK’s four biggest institutions ask for a £35 billion financial lifeline.
The unprecedented move will make the government the biggest shareholder in at least two banks. The Royal Bank of Scot-land (RBS), which has seen its market value fall to under £12 billion, is to ask the government to underwrite a £15 billion cash call. HBOS, which is Britain’s biggest provider of mortgages, is requesting up to £10 billion. Lloyds TSB, which is in the process of acquiring HBOS, and Barclays require £7 billion and £3 billion.
The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. This would be to give time for the market to digest the scale of the information and its impact.
One consequence of the deal is that Lloyds could renegotiate the terms of the takeover, although both sides are still keen for it to happen.”
“The British bank rescue could leave the government owning 70% of HBOS and 50% of RBS.”
according to 538.com, three fifths of that ohio poll showing mccain 2 points up was conducted before the second debate.
43 for Conservatives is 6 below their Yougov peak of 49 but Conservatives have had 40s with Yougov since the start of October 2007. 33 for Labour takes them back to where they were in Feb 08. 14 for the LDs is Clegg’s joint lowest (Jan 08) but 3 above LDs lowest ever of 11 under Ming.
Are Labour just shuring up their core base?
Interesting results on Mandy - once all this financial stuff settles down Brown is going to have to deal with the things that have been put on the backburner…
Considering the huge coverage Brown has had this week and the sense of the government ‘managing’ the crisis then maintaing a 10 point lead, and staying above 40%, is pretty decent for the Tories. The banking crisis will likely down and the media narrative will switch to recession or the banking crisis will remain and Brown’s rescue package will look impotent. Either way, it is difficult to see things getting much better than this for Labour.
302 even more intersting headline about him and some Russian…. about to read that….
Lib Dems on 5% in Scotland according to the YouGov poll - oops!
299. I think things are not looking good for Monday. The EU really need to get their act well and truly together tomorrow or there will be one hell of a slide.
Also, if the gloves do come off this week and Cameron is more visible in the media, then the Tories may go back up a few points.
304, hehe, that’s quite amusing but doesn’t exactly bolster the sense of accuracy in this particular poll.
I think polling wont mean anything until all this economic stuff has calmed down as it will do eventually, for better or worse. Brown is benefiting “if at all” from better hang onto nurse. When the electorate realise the cost of all this, it won’t be pretty and voters will be very angry.
I dont know what Mike thinks . but it’ll be the New year at least IMHO before we can draw any real conclusions.
lol, Times has a loosely disguised hatchet job on Mandelson tomorrow with a tale about him, the richest Russian, a possible stopover on his yacht and big bucks trade advantages for said Russian.
307. I agree - I’m sure 5% is way too high for the LDs!
309 when I say ‘loosely disguised’ I mean ‘look at me boys, I am a hatchet job!!’
311. Mandy just can’t help himself - typical NuLab fascination for lucre
307 as Stuart Dickson regularly points out - small sample size but not inconsistent.
14% Lib-Dem? They are virtually back at the level they was at when the replaced Ming for Clegg! Of course, come the election they will be significantly up on this, which I suspect will translate in Labour being a little down.
Tory share remains solidly in the 40s%. Very good showing given Labour mini comeback.
Labour should get ready for calling an election. The next few months will almost certainly be as good as it gets for them. Next year the economy will feel the effects of the financial crisis and the housing market is going to come crashing down.
302/306 - as somebody who predicted a Labour point bounce of +4, can’t help thinking that this week should have been a sharp bounce for Brown/Labour. Instead they’ve got one that seems quite standard for a “normal” week.
Brown needs another couple of weeks like the last week maybe to boost it up. Trouble is, that assumes that the media narrative won’t change, that he’ll still have the goodwill (even if begrudgingly given) and “events” don’t take over.
Of course, as The Week Of The Non Election in 2007 showed, Brown does have a habit of turning people off when he gets too full of himself…
315. Unless they want to be campaigning in the dark nights, its too late for an election now until Spring.
In the absence of Ave it
Lib Dems - LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pretty dire for them. Tories would have taken a 10 point lead at pretty much any other time in history, so given Brown’s been grinning like a Cheshire cat all week, could be a lot worse.
Still think they should be holding Brown to account MUCH more though.
309 the old excuse “but that was in another country, and besides….”
Hey, another good poll for the Tories.
The next one will be a good poll for the Tories.
The one after that will be another good poll for the Tories.
Ad Nauseum.
Forget the figures, every poll is a good one for the Tories.
I’m neutral, I can’t stand the b*stard lot of them
Malcolm
3155 With what money could Labour mount a GE campaign?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 44.6% .. Lab 29% .. LibDem 15.2% .. Others 11.2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 380 seats .. Lab 192 .. LibDem 42 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 110
David Cameron is Prime Minister
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
320 is it OK for the rest of us to care though?
318 No its
LDs = LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLL!
The Tory purdah in the financial crisis appears to hurting their poll lead. I expect Tory activists will be piling on the pressure for a distinctive position to be taken now.
321 “With what money could Labour mount a GE campaign?”
In best banking traditions, they will probably take an “arrangment fee” as a % of the £450 billion!
320 As usual , a marvellous insightful post from Malcolm. His posts should be highlighted in the British archive.
299 - the question is whether the shareholders will go for it in order to limit Govt involvement.
318 - “Still think they should be holding Brown to account MUCH more though”.
They probably will be soon. This past week hasn’t been a fun one if you’re an opposition strategist - you don’t have power to do anything, so you can only do platitudes at best. If you go on the attack too much you’ll just look mean spirited, as the mood last week wasn’t one for that.
In other words, if the voters are paying attention to you, it means you’ve done something wrong.
One thing this poll does show though, in light of discussions here this week - PMQs has little, if any, effect on how people are likely to vote. A lesson?
325 - I think that would be a complete mistake. Yes it is tough at the moment to even get noticed, let alone get a hearing, but it would be calamitous to decide that the best thing to do would be to agitate agains the leadership. The election is at least a year away. Fractiousness in the Conservative party would boost Labour at this point. The only realistic course for the Conservative Party activists and all is to keep tight and wait, the opportunity will present itself in due course. Financial problems like this can never ultimately be good for decade long incumbents.
328, a case for a tougher PMQs. Cameron has to tie this crisis around Brown’s neck like a millstone, and part of that will be a hammering (perhaps multiple such occasions) at PMQs.
318/328 - I simply don’t think it makes any sense for the Conservatives to go on the attack at the moment. They just have to accept that the Govt will get a short term boost, hope for the country that the bailout works, and wait.
The fundamentals won’t change. The long list of Brown quotes on the economy going back to 1997 will still be available. The rescue plan isn’t going to make the taxpayer money so the long term credit will be limited.
Next year the squeeze will begin, and their will be plenty of blame to be easily apportioned.
330 Morris Dancer
Exactly right
It will be fairly easy if and when this immediate crisis blows over for the Conservatives to pile in with the criticism. They will just say that they stood by the Govt for the national interest, but now is the day of reckoning.
Sky News completely fabricating the truth right now - Gordon Brown invited to Eurozone crisis meeting to sell the plan ‘that he came up with’ - pathetic misrepresentation of what actually happened
What will finally do for Brown will be his total refusal to acknowledge any responsibility for anything which has gone wrong in the economy over the last twelve years, whilst blaming it on the rest of the world/the Tories. This is where the Tories can score in PMQ’s - but they will have to be patient.
330 - But not just yet, plenty of time for that. This is a case for perfect judgment, I would say that the rest of 2008 is going to be a very difficult one for the Conservatives. The markets are going to be shaky for a while. The banking system will probably take at least a month to fully calm down. You cannot rule out other major shocks at some point. Things may begin to dissipate in the early part of next year. Plus through all that time the real economy will be retrenching like mad, plus looking at the pointers I would say that it is as much as 50/50 whether this turns into economic depression. We have commodity deflation, coupled with a banking shock, a collapse of a debt fuelled housing market and a market that is moving more by panic than fundamentals. This is remarkably similar to the circumstances in 1929/30.
This YouGov poll in the ST is very good news for Labour and Gordon Brown in particular, if the Government can string out the financial collapse of the UK’s economy for a further 8-10 months, fudge the unemployment figures, hide the increase in home repossessions and bankruptcies that are heading our way, then I think they may be in with a chance at the next GE.
330 Morris Dancer, no in national crisis, and this is one, an Opposition has to be constructive, with critisisms limited to practicalities and just enough warnings that the causes will be examined. What needs to be done, carefully, is to build on two findings in the poll.
Gordon Brown was a successful Chancellor, and he has the experience needed to steer Britain’s economy through this crisis - disagree 47, agree 37
Gordon Brown mismanaged Britain’s public finances when he was Chancellor, and he will use the crisis as an excuse for raising taxes - agree 49, disagree 34
Don’t like the latter as a question as its covers two areas but in every interview positive support for necessary actions but remind them he got us into this, its going to cost you as a result.
337, hide all that?
It would be so widespread people would either experience it directly or know those who have.
It’s like when they quote crime stats saying violent crime in London has fallen: no-one believes it.
Ancedotally speaking of course, but this week in the “real world” (ie speaking to people, reading non-political sites etc etc, there has been NO comments whatoever about what Cameron or Clegg would do. Absolutely none.
Hasn’t really been much about what Brown/Darling has done either, which maybe explains the polls
338, I blame the impetuousness of youth
‘twould also explain why I put bets on the Fuji GP before checking it’s start time (5.30am…)
I agree with James. The best thing for Cameron to do is carry on looking offering supportative and encouraging words for Brown. Next week could be even worse than this week has been for the markets and financial system and the time simply isn’t right for going for the jugular. That’ll come in due course.
336 - quite. The other point is that the Govt will suffer for the overexpectations of what this plan will deliver. It should be considered a major success if it enables the survival of the major banks and financial system in this country.
Many will however see it as a failure if it fails to stave off a fairly serious recession, which is unlikely in the extreme.
So even if the plan is an incredible success in its realistic aims, in political terms it is very likely that it will be able to be portrayed as a failure.
There’s little political credit to be gained from only producing a recession!
They can attack him in print but on telly they should be trying to look like they’re reminding McBean to not forget the little people during all this high financial shenanigans.
339 - me thinks your sarcasm detector is turned off
345, I’m sleepy. That’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it.
It should also be pointed out that last summer Gordon was seen as the “man for a crisis” after steering us through terrorist attack, floods and pestilence. He led by up to 10pts in the polls.
This year he is apparently seen as a “man for a crisis”, not just any crisis but a crisis in an area (economics) upon which he has built his entire political career. He is 10pts behind.
A good poll? Only if you have no expectations of any support whatsoever!
343 - Absolutely, I think it is interesting to note that the government hasn’t actually changed a great deal. All through the summer they were touting some ‘grand economic recovery plan’, which turned out to be the dampest of squibs. Now they are in danger of overselling the bank re-capitalization as some sort of panacaea. This is a government where nothing ever lives up to expectations, and nothing is ever quite as good as it is sold to be. It isn’t quite the Ronseal government, it can’t quite do what it says on the tin.
Rasmussen’s party id for the coming week will be Dem +6.3%. Up 0.3% from this week :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_3_democrat_33_0_republican
339 – OK, it’s a big IF I’ll admit, I did say I had it all worked out, the finer details are Roger’s department.
337. I beg your pardon! Stringing out the financial collapse for the next month, nay week will be an achievement.
344 A few written questions, following on from Michael Howard’s one on possible law breaking on leaks to Peston, wouldn’t be a bad way to start laying the minefield. When did the FSA first become aware of Icelandic bank weaknesses? What actions taken? that sort of thing.
Perhaps, as it looks like the taxpayer will own most of HBOS, Yorkshire MPs can start more detailed questions on jobs in Yorkshire.
326 Hilda
Thanks so much. Most grateful.
Sleep well, take care
Malcolm
338 Cameron should disagree with Brown’s proposed policy if he thinks it is the wrong thing to do, period. He should always be phrasing everything in terms of the taxpayer and he should state that he will be watching Brown like a hawk for any signs over duplicitous stealth taxes or deceit as in the case of Iceland. There should be no doubt that Brown is partially guilty for situation we are in and that The conservative party will monitor Labour very closely on behalf of the British people to make sure they don’t get up to any more tricks.
319. And we dont like people like you.
#343
Indeed. People will believe that they are paying extra taxes to save fatcat bankers while their own jobs, businesses and houses are lost.
People are going to be very angry in six months time.
V. good article in the times re le krunch
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4926735.ece
I wonder what the LibDem total would be if Cable was their leader?
Looking at ConservativeHome I wonder if Cameron will let a couple of backbenchers off the leash to make that point. Keep the activist base happy whilst keeping the front bench above the fray.
#331 - “The fundamentals won’t change. The long list of Brown quotes on the economy going back to 1997 will still be available. ”
I take you mean these ones?
“Under this Government, Britain will not return to the boom and bust of the past.”
Pre-Budget Report, 1999
“Britain does not want a return to boom and bust.”
Budget Speech, 2000
“So our approach is to reject…the old boom and bust.”
Pre-Budget Report, 2000
“Mr Deputy Speaker we will not return to boom and bust.”
Budget Speech, 2001
I came on here to tell you all to get on Diana to win X Factor, but it seems several posters have already beaten me to it!
The Times also reports that suggestive naming of Cocktails is to be banned - no more Long Slow Screws Against the Wall, Frisky Pussies or Sex on the Beach. That’ll sort out binge drinking!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article4926571.ece
359 - My favourite is the Budget speech of 2000.
Effectively:
“I’ve given it a lot of thought, and have carefully come to the conclusion that the best policy for this country would be to have unlimited growth for ever more”
Just a shame he didn’t consider those pesky bankers who decided to take him up on his word, eh?
Do you think Gordon will try and wriggle out on a technicality on the grounds that there was never any real “boom”?
Strauss-Kahn’s comments today are deeply worrying. Eve if he think’s the global financial system is close to meltdown should he have said it? My take is that this week could see further losses of up to 50% on global stock markets and a run on the banks virtually everywhere. It might sound like a doomsday scenario but I reckon it’s close.
363, one of Brown’s interesting idiosyncracies is the inability to accept blame or admit fault. Just asking simple questions about apologising for mistakes, or feeling a sense of responsibility having created the regulatory framework, will probably have him clutching the dispatch box and shaking.
361 - Oh God, its the Killjoy party!
351: If this story
http://tinyurl.com/3pxgwp
Is true, then you will be right. Letters of credit being refused
This is getting worse and worse and worse.
I think Labour should definitely be having serious thoughts about a Spring 09 election. We won’t win it, but Brown has to take the gamble that he will beat Cameron in an election campaign, and 10 points down isn’t a terrible base to start from. If Labour can then cut the lead to 5 points, then it will be a better result than anyone could have hoped for a few months ago.
359 He’s now claiming he only ever said “Tory Boom and Bust” - apparently a return to Labour Boom and Bust was never ruled out, presumably this being in his view an entirely benign form of the business cycle.
#362 I have never seen that one before and gobsmacked that he said it.
Any other gems to my smack my gob may make this an interesting thread.
If you go to the daily mail you will see that they are saying the Dead go unburied due to the governments failure to control the credit crisis:
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/mailonsunday/index.html
366 that use of the term “joy” - could it have sex connotations, if so its banned!
Is it time for the Central Banks to assume responsibility for all traditional banking functions…
With the World Bank as guarantor of last resort.
371 just like 1979……..
368. Oh dear! Is that as good as it gets for you.
359. Lots of simple avenues of attack:
Brown’s bust buried under the larger US one. No wonder he’s happy.
Bad Pharoah not saving up for a rainy day.
All those IMF warnings.
Sale of gold.
372 - Probably, I bet the government will be banning Maypoles next. I will have something to say if the noble art of Morris Dancing gets put on the government hitlist!!
I watched Are You Being Served - “Cold Comfort”
Recorded in 1974, the plot revolves around an energy shortage because of dwindling fuel supplies and everyone needs to make sacrifices to “pull through”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lgo-QTge64
Sound familiar?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1076687/Revealed-BBC-man-8217-s-intriguing-web-friendships-scoop-shocked-banking-world.html
375. Erm, yes. Did you not understand my post?
372 - Have you met BlackAdder?
Don’t call me `Aunty’!!! `Aunt’ is a relative, and relatives are evidence of sex, and sex is hardly a fitting subject for the dinner table.
- The Puritan Aunt from Hell
375/80 - Worrying for Labour that one of their own supporters thinks that a hung parliament would be a better way of escaping this mess than the current Govt.
Why European Banks Look Precarious
…Who in the eurozone can do what Alistair Darling has just done in extremis to save Britain’s banks, as this $10 trillion house of cards falls down? There is no EU treasury or debt union to back up the single currency. The ECB is not allowed to launch bail-outs by EU law.
Each country must save its own skin, yet none has full control of the policy instruments. Germany has vetoed French and Italian ideas for an EU lifeboat fund. The former knows exactly where that leads.
It is a Trojan horse that will be used one day to co-opt German taxpayers into rescues for less Teutonic EMU kin. One can sympathise with Berlin. But sharing debts with Italy and Spain was implicit when they agreed to launch the euro. A shared currency entails obligations.
We have reached the watershed moment when Germany has to decide whether to put its full sovereign weight behind the EMU project or reveal that it is not prepared to do so in a crisis. This is a very dangerous set of circumstances for monetary union.
Tories on the slide (again) and in their favourite pollster aswell.
A 1% swing, over the next 18 months, will see the tories notional majority wiped out.
381 Black Adder is to be banned because it is racist.
381, or indeed, any table.
Except perhaps a table in a brothel.
Hehe, got the tapes of seasons 2-4, listen to them sometimes when exercising.
384 Gabble = Iceland
365 - One question “Prime Minister, you say this is all the fault of the United States financial system, and in the US the blame is put firmly on the regime adopted by Alan Greenspan, Do you agree that Alan Greenspan’s policies failed and do you regret appointing him an advisor to Her Majesty’s Treasury?”
Its a bit of a when did you stop beating your wife question but I’d like to see his answer.
383 - Objectively, the best thing Germany could do for Germany would be to withdraw from EMU on Monday. Not sure what the Euro plunging by 30% would do though…
384 Been reading Grimms fairy tales again Gabble.. Seen the stock market of late..
389
It would make my visit to France at half term a damned sight cheaper…
384
How’s the FTSE?
387:
“By 33% to 27%, people trust him and Alistair Darling more than David Cameron and George Osborne to handle the crisis.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4926891.ece
390 - I have a begrudging respect for Gabble, to live in a rose tinted bubble must be a wonderful place to escape to…
Presently in the poo with Mrs StClare!
381- The Puritan Aunt from Hell: You mean Anne Widdicombe who is that actresses double!
95% of the public won’t have a clue about the details of Brown’s “rescue plan” - all most people will know is that there is a crisis, banks have been going bust, nobody is lending, share prices are crashing and Brown is supposedly “dealing with it”.
If/when it all settles down I doubt people will attribute much of any “successful resolution” to Brown as people are not going to tangibly see any great success.
Instead all that people are going to tangibly see over the next 18 months is a house price crash, job losses, home repossessions etc etc. People will ask who has been presiding over all this and they will not be asking for more of the same.
People have to say they trust Brown/Darling. The thought that they shouldn’t be trusted (however justified) has consequences too terrible to imagine.
395, you have a two-seater lavatory?:p
Ah right. Me and my family feel so much more secure that we’ll experience Labour assisted global boom and bust.
Now where’s that bottle of Scotch and a revolver?
Re the Euro.
It’s not going to fall apart over the credit crunch.
No, really.
It’s really not complex. Most of Europe (Southern Spain and Ireland are not in the majority) has not had a housing bubble. French and German banks have been relatively cautious about lending. (There are, obviously, exceptions.)
The total losses in the EU will be modest relatively to GDP. Some governments, notably the Irish, will have to take on substantial additional debt. But it might have been even worse for the Irish if they’d been out of the Euro (shades of Iceland).
And it’s also worth noting that Ireland’s overall government debt is much more able to bear these costs than it was 15 years ago.
368. I agree. A lot of other issues which had originally led to Labour sliding behind before Brown took over might be overlooked in such a situation. In the longer run they will return, and on top of the recession be lethal.
381 My favourite ever Blackadder moment is in that episode where Percy says “great booze-up, edmund” in front of his aunt and he concocts a story about a native of the tropics called great BOO finally rising from a long sleep, hence “Great Boos up”. Given gordons change from no return to Boom and bust to no return to tory boom and bust maybe he has also watched this episode.
Does anyone have access to FTSE futures prices re Monday’s forecast opening?
Labour is only increasing as people are wary of changing the government at such a crucial time, when this is over, and it will be, following a recession, massive debt and many nationalised banks, then the price of incompetence by Brown will be clear.
As for the euro, you must be insane if you think the currency is going to collapse, there’s probably more chance of the dollar collapsing before the euro.
I do hope CCHQ have people trawling through all of Brown’s old speeches and statemenst to expose the lies he’s been telling well week about wanting global regulation all along
On Futures:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
FTSE 100 3,942.00 -401.50 3,970.00
I suspect once news of the HBOS and RBS news is official, we should expect a massive nosefive.
There is a chance that if Brown is perceived as having saved the economy, he may take the opportunity to leave office on a ‘high’. He must be aware that in most other aspects, his premiership has been a disappointment, to put it mildly.
Robert - you are coming close to heresy there, suggesting that maybe the UK isn’t best placed to go through this crisis but it actually might be that we are one of the causes! That the global economy might be imperilled because the US & UK banks, along with those of another couple of small atlantic islands, have been poorly regulated and … no I can’t go on, it couldn’t be true.
405. I think the point is about whether the countries will want to stay on board or whether Italy, in particular, may decide it has a better chance of sorting itself out alone. Also, Germany will likely bear the brunt of any baiout plan, and given they are going to suffer, there is a question mark over whether it will be politically popular or possible for them to do so and take a hit for the good of the other countries. Hence I think the post at 401 is also confusing the collapse of the euro in value with the breakup of EMU. FWIW (and I am no expert) there have been signs in the markets that investors have decreasing confidence in the continued existence of the Euro. It’s something to do with interest on govt bonds.
410 is also to 401
Let me guess, its Hattie that wants to do away with the Sex On A Beech?
Anyway, I’m off to bed now. Goodnight all
thomas - It’s idle speculations of some euro-sceptic economists. Only in Italy are government officials talking about it once in a while.
However, if you ask most economic researchers, it’s not the euro that is responsible for Italy’s problems. Their institutions, social security and other projects are simply inadequate and poorly designed to increase growth, employment and infrastructure.
Evidently the ECB is not well-equipped to deal with this crisis, there may be a need to have another authority in the EMU.
#401 Robert:
…The collapse of Hypo Real with €400 billion of liabilities has made him (German finance minister Peer Steinbruck) face the unsettling truth that German banks have played a big part in this $10 trillion speculative venture undertaken by the whole global banking industry.
Europeans borrowed vast sums in dollars in the offshore money markets when dollar credit was cheap. This was leveraged by multiples of 50 or 60 to fund whatever craze was in fashion – Russia, Brazil, infrastructure. The credit crunch has left these banks floundering.
They have to pay back a lot of dollars, yet the underlying assets are crumbling. They are caught in a self-feeding spiral of “deleveraging”. Even those European banks that stuck to stodgy investments are caught in a vice, since many rely to some degree on three-month loans for funds. That market is jammed shut. They cannot roll-over their loan books. This way lies sudden death, as Hypo discovered.
It’s not just about the housing bubble, but excessive leverage and roll-over.
412 No it seems to be Jacqui Smith and Alan Johnson who don’t like Sex on the Beach
416 - Well they are regular 24 hour party people aren’t they!
Jane Davidson, AM for Pontypridd, has announced she won’t stand again in 2011 Welsh Assembly Elections.
She looks forward to having more time for walking and cycling.
I know you desperately wanted to know this
416. I’m surprised at Alan Johnson. I thought he had more sense than getting involved with nonsense like this.
Not content with wrecking the economy, we’re not even going to be able to drown our sorrows by the time this lot are finished.
414. I think that’s what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is suggesting. EMU is half-baked, so the question is between more integration (new institutions perhaps) or split. I can’t argue over the economics of the Euro’s benefits in Italy, but to be fair to the man (AEP) he does present an argument. Amongst other things he says the interest rates were at a rate which were beneficial to Germany rather than Italy. Indeed, Italy, which you mention, he believes to be the likeliest to get itchy feet. It must be said in his favour that AEP has been predicting this crisis for a while. He also believes it will get much, much worse, so that possibly explains why he thinks huge events like EMU break-up are possible.
Sky News presenter Steve Dixon describes Gordon Brown article in Sunday Mirror as “rubbish”, providing no answers etc.
Sky making big point about Sunday Mirror supporting Labour.
I only post this in view of certain comments in recent days about Sky’s coverage.
New thread on the polling coming in 20 minutes
418
Well walking and cycling will be all there is to do at current rate… and she won’t be able to have Sex on the Beach either.
407. Thanks. But is that showing an up to date price? I don’t think it is.
Big article on the impact on Pensions in the Telegraph.
Good spot by the Tories both because its important and it starts to get people to understand the pain that poor economic management has and will cause.
http://tinyurl.com/46qbj3
421. Why do SKY think The Mirror suporting Labour newsworthy?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1495
Don’t know if you caught this article by Anthony Wells on whether the crisis will save Brown.
Its a good read.
Just caught the front page of The Sunday Telegraph, why is that stunningly gorgeous woman carrying around a garden gnome?
425.. I will repeat myself ( deleted )
No One reads the ToryGraph, the Torygraph are doing what they do, appealing to their Toryship. Tory types tut tutting.
The Mirror support labour….Never
What a scoop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
428 let me guess - it’s a picture of Mr & Mrs Bernie Ecclestone?
No 427, a good read is something like A Thousand Years of Solitude by Gabriel García Márquez.
A load of nonsense by Tory types trying to convince themselves that all is well is called tripe
According to The Times, it will be:
Baron Mandelson, of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham
433….and !!!! whats your point.
Making fun of the Lords when its Mandy.
Would you like the full titles of Tory boys and Girls who are in the Lords.
How about elivated to the Lords, Sayeeda “Im the token darkie” Warsi.. I may be asian, but at least my family are rich !!!!!
391 Hilda
School hols is it? Lower sixth trip? Master coming with you?
Malcolm
this is an extremely unsavoury post. i would delete it now