Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?
October 15th, 2008
What does this say about his potential at the next general election?
Almost everybody with an interest in politics remembers May 1st 1997 - the day that Tony Blair’s Labour party swept to power after eighteen years in the wilderness. The 13% margin in the popular vote and the way anti Tory voters were prepared to vote for whoever in their seat had the best chance of beating the Tory meant that Labour’s landslide majority was substantially greater than any of the seat projections.
Yet it might come as a surprise to note that according to what turned out to be the most accurate final poll, ICM for the Guardian, Labour went into polling day behind on the economy (see the panel above)
So why raise it now you might ask? Well firstly it’s a powerful rebuff to those who seem to believe implicitly that “leading on the economy” has an impact on voting intention - something we have been hearing a lot of at the moment. And secondly, and much more controversially, it raises questions about the campaigning prowess of the person who was leading for Labour on the economy in 1997 - one Gordon Brown.
How come that even in the most friendly of times for Labour was the party not able to show significant leads on what we are always told is the central issue - the economy?
Brown, of course, was up against Ken Clarke who to my mind was the most effective member of John Major’s team - but that doesn’t totally explain the polling.
Looking forward what does this say about Gord’s effectiveness as a campaigner if he leads Labour at the next general election?
Mike Smithson
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Good spot, Mike. Another bit of received wisdom bites the dust.
What does “other - 23%” mean? Can’t be all SNP/Plaid/Irish. Jimmy Goldsmith? Would have been more useful if it had been a “forced choice” question and excluded don’t knows. Or there again, not. And the economy was doing well during 1997.
“Looking forward what does this say about Gord’s effectiveness as a campaigner if he leads Labour at the next general election?”
I think that he will be a wonderful leader of the British Labour Party. One of their many all-time greats. Please keep him as your leader Labour. You are quite simply guaranteed a landslide victory under the proven campaigning genius of Dr Brown. The man is a national treasure. Rool Britannia!
Good night for the Bloc Québécois. The Scottish National Party would be absolutely delighted with a result in the high 30’s at the next UK GE. The SNP’s highest ever vote share to date has been the 32.9% achieved at the Scottish general election last May.
Result so far - Quebec
1. BQ 38.1% 48 seats (+ leading in 1 other)
2. Lib 23.7% 13 seats (+ leading in 1 other)
3. Con 21.7% 10 seats
4. NDP 12.2% 1 seat
I honestly don’t think this has much relevance. In 1997 people were sick of the Tories, desperate for change, and prepared to take their chances with the economy as long as they got a new Government. These days I suspect people are more economically aware, so it would be difficult to compare like with like.
What it says is that people had reasonable confidence in the Conservatives running of the economy (or rather perhaps weren’t totally convinced by Labour) but weren’t prepared to forgive them for creating the mess in the first place at Black Wednesday.
Don’t quite see why it should be any different this time. How much in the way of “paper losses” has the Govt made to date from the Lloyds/HBOS share purchase? How does it compare to the amount the Conservatives lost propping up the pound?
It goes to show that people aren’t good with hypothetical questions. ‘If Labour get into government will they be better than the Tories at handling the economy? Who could know?
But what they did know for certain and was that the Tories were arrogant and nasty and Blair’s Labour weren’t. They’d seen Peter Lilley sing songs ridiculing single mothers at conference while the blue rinses squealed with pleasure. They’d seen Portillo shout ‘Who Dares Wins.” They’d seen Jeffrey Archer….
It didn’t need imagination to know that Blair’s Labour would be like a breeze in a lavender field after all that. The economy wasn’t a factor.
5 - what grounds are there for people being more “economically aware”? Do you mean that the economy is a higher priority?
4 - are the Bloc the world’s most successful nationalist party, at least in terms of PV share? - better than the PNV and CiU in Spain too?
I’m sure Andrea or someone will be able to confirm.
7.
“Blair’s Labour would be like a……”
smokey (ecclestone)
“breeze in a…”
Iraqi
lavender field…….”
with a dead scientist sitting in the corner.
And all packaged by Peter ‘Mr Clean’ Mandelson.
CBC speculating that the hung parliament could lead to another election within 12-18 months…
11.
Oh it all..
makes work…..
….for the polling buffoons to do!!
No. Prescot was Labour’s weakest link.
As far as the economy question, it has probably has more resonance in difficult times than good ones. When things are chugging along nicely - which by 1997 they more or less were - people tend to assume that they’ll go on that way; when money is tight, the economy (which is always important) rides right to the top of the agenda.
Another lawsuit filed, seeking Obama’s removal from the ballot in WA.
http://www.americasright.com/
the question is irrelevant. Labour wasn’t trusted then, as the memory was of Wilson/ Callaghan, IMF, winter of discontent, etc. Tories had been seen as ‘natural party of government’. Labour were behind on the polls as most trusted economically for those reasons, not cos Gordon was a poor campaigner. Mike, you’re clutching at straws on this one, I think.
14.
“Oh it all..
….makes work….
….for the wealthy lawyers to do!!
14 - Shouldn’t that be a lawsuit to impose AV in WA?
12.
T’was on the Tuesday evening
The elections were declared
And with the numbers added up
We knew how all had fared
And with no clear majority
We knew that there would be
Another fun election
For all the world to see!
#6 LLoyds closed at 151.3 (Govt offer: 173.3); HBOS closed at 85.3 (Govt offer: 113.6).
Paper loss to the taxpayer on these deals: ~ £3 billion.
18.
9. Double Carpet
I thought that the English nationalist party, known officially as the Conservative Party, was “the world’s most successful nationalist party”.
Gordon Brown’s party has been pretty successful too over the years, and it is a very stridently nationalist party. Remember “British Jobs for British Workers”. Now, I wonder which political party Brown nicked that slogan from…
13 and editorial
I just think people residually had the view that Labour were bad with money - from their inherited reputation especially from 1975, 1979 etc. Until people saw that Labour weren’t some kind of bogeyman with money, there was still a lot of that thinkng about. You notice Cameron is doing his darnedest to link these events now to Labour again to reinforce that message again (and with a fair amount of success up till now). No wonder Tories are a little disquieted that if the message of modern political history gets out that it is an international crisis, and even worse for them, if Gordon Brown turns out to be the real world’s version of Superman, then they could yet fail to benefit as they have so many times before.
Yet another arb opportunity over at the Glenrothes market (”Best price percentage: 99.0%, bookies only: 102.0%”).
Glenrothes punters have now had several chances to fill up their pockets with free cash at the bookies expense. I would love to see their books! Any mega (losing) bets at your Glasgow shops this time Shadsy?
18.
T’was early Tuesday evening,
The election panorama
Was clear as exit polls can be -
A tight win for Obama.
But Governor Clean’s voting machines,
In Dade County Miami,
Flipped across the brother’s votes
And elected old McShammy…..
Re 7. Whenever you respond like this Roger I am reminded of Nye Bevan’s description of Labour having an ‘an emotional spasm’
24.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9BiVJucsM4
Glenrothes by-election - best prices
Bookmakers (William Hill have not got out of bed yet today):
SNP 4/9 (Sporting Bet)
Lab 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Con 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet)
LD 100/1 (Coral and Ladbrokes)
Betfair:
SNP 1.51
Lab 2.7
Any other party 50
alex @ 8 Yes, I suppose that’s where I’m coming from. I also suspect that nowadays people feel more in ‘ownership’ of modern government and are therefore more concious of the finer details. Having said that, Clinton’s “it’s the economy stupid” predates 1997 by 5 years.
The Bloc Québécois won both the last two seats to declare. Therefore…
Final result - Quebec
BQ 50 seats
Lib 13
Con 10
NDP 1
Ind 1
It’s unfortunate that the first economic crisis in eleven years is laid at the feet of the bankers. Rather like Labour in the late 70’s were linked to the behaviour of the the unions so today are the Tories linked to the excess of the bankers.
The futures bright. The futures Brown.
1997 was about the endless repetition of “Tory sleaze” on the BBC.
Followed by an uncanny silence ever since despite Zanu Labour being much sleazier.
30. Any evidence to back that up Roger or is it what a waiter has told you.
30. Really? Where has anyone said the tories are linked to the bankers? The only place I’ve seen it claimed is here, not in the papers, or in the news.
23. Nothing much tbh, Stuart. Labour are a losing result for us at the moment, but this isn’t a patch on Glasgow East as a betting heat, so far.
O/T. Update from DaveH poll-tracker HQ (ie - my own number crunching):
Obama 358 (+4 since Monday)
McCain 180 (-4 since Monday)
The biggest part of this is a shift to Obama in Missouri. The methodology I’m using (for those interested) is a full allocation of EVs to the relevant candidate in a state if the polling gives them a clear lead and a division based roughly on their respective likelihood of actually being ahead if it’s close.
Hedge fund manager, the newly enobled Paul Myners, Lord Adaire of the FSA and Sir Victor Blank are bankers and new Lab groupies, so it goes to show we cannot make assumptions
Latest Zogby/Reuters tracker :
McCain 44.4% .. Obama 48.2%
Note - Yesterday - M-42.8/O-49.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1587
The Bloc Québécois has maintained its strong support in Quebec, where the Conservatives had been hoping for a breakthrough among the province’s 75 seats in Tuesday night’s election. The Tories began the campaign seeing Quebec as a key component in their hopes to win a majority.
“We achieved our objective,” Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe told his supporters Tuesday night in Montreal. “Without the Bloc Québécois tonight, Mr. Harper would have formed a majority government.”
At the beginning of the campaign, opinion polls suggested support for the Bloc had softened and that Tories were leading. Party officials were hoping the Conservatives could pierce through in the greater Montreal area, in particular the South Shore, and build on their 2006 wins in the Quebec City region. This, they thought might double and possibly triple the 10 seats they won in 2006.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/10/14/quebec-vote.html
An omen for David Cameron?
At least Cameron probably will at least manage to “double and possibly triple” the number of seats the Tories won at the last UK GE in Scotland. After all, one seat multiplied by 2 or 3 is still not a very big number!
And at least 3 seats look to be in the bag already:
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con hold)
- Edinburgh South (Con gain from Lab)
- East Renfrewshire (Con gain from Lab: Jim Murphy, Secretary of State for Scotland)
35 David. I think you’ll find PBers don’t like to see your ARSE over the cornflakes !!
Obama at 80 on Intrade :
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
The Times opinion page isn’t really in keeping with the supposed new narrative:
“A triumph? I’d hate to see a disaster
Gordon Brown can only avoid blame for the bust if he admits that his boom was always an illusion
Daniel Finkelstein”
“How they botched the bailout
The Bank of England has a lot to answer for. The competitiveness of British banks has been ruined
Tim Congdon”
“Frost/Nixon: Two gladiators battling with wits
As his new film opens at the London Film Festival, the director recalls the performance that inspired him to bring it to the big screen
Ron Howard
I was not the underdog, says David Frost”
Columnists
“England shows its middle-class spread
The decade-long boom has made Middle England a vast amorphous thing
Robert Crampton”
“He is too naive to be a Machiavelli
Lord Mandelson, our newest peer, is the spin-doctor who won’t take his own medicine
Alice Miles”
“Brown’s raid on Iceland was cowardice, not courage
The use of anti-terrorism law against a friendly country was appalling
Daniel Hannan”
Mike, on a basic level the problem with your post is that 1997 was in benign economic conditions, whereas 2010 may not be. In the latter situation economic leadership should be more important than it was then.
On a seperate point, I have posted before on the fact that centre-right parties are usually, everywhere in the world, given the benefit of the doubt in terms of economic competence. Where Labour have to usually answer the question “is this party capable of directing the economy?” before they even get onto the question of “is this party the one we want to direct the economy now?”, the Tories always get a free pass on the first one. This makes life much easier for Cameron / Osbourne than it did for Blair / Brown.
I also have argued before that in 1997, so-called “economic incompetence” was not in itself a driving factor behind the Tories unpopularity. It was clearly the case that people on the streets would credit Major / Clarke with the ability to manage the economy well, partly out of record and partly out of personality. What Black Wednessday really did was to highlight what an utter shambles the Conservative Party had become as an organisation, both internally and externally. After all, specific crises will always be dealt with by individuals and Clarke, Heseltine and others were all “competent”. However the ERM debacle married to the Maastricht voting led to a change in perception about how the Tories were at governing themselves. It was this lack of credibility more than anything else, which led to Tory downfall.
In this sense I do not believe that Labour have yet reached such a nadir because, out of a mixture of spinelessness and vacuousness, they have stuck together. However I also foresee that Brown does not have the personality to get credit amongst the electorate for any “recovery”, even if this happens before the election. I still foresee a Tory majority of 50 - 75 as I did two months ago.
38 - Quebec has 75 seats in a Parliament of little over 300, Scotland has 56 seats in a Parliament of 650. Of course you would need to do well in an area that provided a quarter of the seats. The calculation isn’t the same for an area that provides about 8.5%.
34. Thanks Shadsy.
- “Labour are a losing result for us at the moment… “
I thought that bookmakers normally only lost money if the Favourite won?
- “… this isn’t a patch on Glasgow East as a betting heat, so far.”
No, I wouldn’t expect that. And I very much doubt it will get much hotter either. Punters got Glasgow East (and Dunfermline & West Fife) horrendously wrong. Once burnt, twice shy…
Can someone help me do some maths here.
Economic activity down, unemployment up = less money into government via taxes.
Increased unemployment = increased social security required = more money out of government pot.
Where does the government get the extra money to cover all that then?
32. 36. Peter G and Woody. Don’t you think that if a poll question asked “Which Party do you most associate with bankers and big business?” The Tories would overwhelmingly come out top?
31 re BBC bias. Did the BBC not cover cash-for-honours or Bernie Ecclestone’s million quid? Remember the dodgy dossier on Iraq?
What is going on in Conservative Central Office (Astroturf Division)? Neither this BBC bias stuff nor Gordon Brown caused the global financial crisis is going to fly so what is the point? Call off the troops till a credible line of attack can be devised.
I think Tim13 at 22 is right. Casting my mind back to those days, people had rejected us in 1992 because they thought we were too risky on economics, but by 1997 they thought hell, we want a change so much and they don’t seem too bad even on economics, let’s go for it. Brown got us from “too risky” to “not too bad” but it wasn’t the main theme preoccupying people.
Unlike, for instance, now.
46. Perhaps, but in reality not only has that not happened, but nothing like it. Labour supporters keep claiming being associated with the bankers will harm the tories, but this theory hasn’t born fruit. No-one has been blaming the tories by proxy for this.
45 - It whacks up the defecit!
45 — where the government gets the money.
See 65 in last thread. Interest rates are forecast to fall (with inflation around 1 per cent — oil and food are already coming down).
As interest rates fall, the government will be able to borrow more money to pay dole or to stimulate the economy thus getting people back to work and paying taxes.
Labour can still win in 2010.
48 Correct Nick, however now you are behind on the economy - Brown only leads in the more recent polls on solving the ‘current crisis’, Cameron and Osborne lead on improving people’s standard of living and the like. So unless he is planning to cut and run right now in the teeth of a crisis…..
47. Those were scandals of a wholely different scale, with the allegations ranging from the sale of government policy to complicity in waging illegal and aggressive war. Hardly compares with a backbencher who can’t keep his trousers on or even accepting a bribe (in the thousands, not a million) to put down a parliamentary question, wrong though that was.
41. Antifrank. The fact that most of them are active Tories might have something to do with it
re 48. That’s fine Nick except that Labour for the months and years had a solid lead on the economy until the election campaign itself. Then with all the extra exposure to Gordon that lead evaporated. That should be worrying to Labour MPs in marginal seats.
I remain of the view that Gordon is a huge electoral liability.
51. Borrowing costs money obviously.
51 - Interest rates falling or rising are not that relevant to a government borrowing money as it does so by issueing Gilts.
48 — Nick Palmer MP is wrong about 1992. Laabour lost because Mandelson & Co ran a terrible campaign including not countering Tory attacks (apparently for fear of letting the Conservatives “set the agenda” and stopping campaigning a week too early, with stunts like democracy day and Sheffield).
Fortunately for the Conservatives, Mandelson has been invited back to screw up another campaign. According to the papers, he wants a snap election so Cameron can get some new curtains for Christmas.
56 — borrowing costs less money as interest rates fall. That’s the point.
Well Roger, the question does not appear to have been asked and so all of us can only assume an answer, based on our personal prejudices and assumptions.
Another possible question could be; do you think the Blair/Brown Governments have been too close rich businessmen? We have no idea of the answer but a good guess would be yes.
54 - I didn’t realise that being an active Tory was a qualification for getting an article on the opinion pages of the Times. You are mistaking symptom with cause.
43. James Burdett
Point of information: Scotland actually has 59 seats (not 56) in a Parliament of 646 seats (de facto 641 seats due to Sinn Féin abstaining). Westminster will only increase to 650 seats after the next UK GE.
Therefore, Scotland has approx 9.2% of Westminster MPs.
But of course your general point is correct.
59 - Yes but conversely the more a government borrows the higher the interest rate that the market demands because of the increased risk of debt default.
57 — gilt prices rise as interest rates fall.
47. The BBC is guardianista, not Labour. As long as Labour fits within the guardianista agenda then the BBC will minimize the government’s negatives and maximize its positives. Iraq and the close alliance with Bush stepped outside the guardianista agenda and Blair paid for it.
45. Yokel - “Where does the government get the extra money to cover all that then?”
Increased national debt. Whoops-a-daisy…
Gabble Check List for Wednesday, October 15, 2008:
FTSE opens at 4394.21
Milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 61.39 (1.40%) to reach 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 991.69 (22.57%) to come out of current bear market
5866.90 - up 1472.69 (33.51%) to equal DOW since 2 May 97
6088.67 - up 1694.46 (38.56%) to equal CAC since 2 May 97
6694.46 - up 2300.25 (52.35%) to equal DAX since 2 May 97
but remember always, the direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
Roger
all that happened in 1997 was that one group of corrupt, sleaze ridden, arrogant scumbags who the people knew were replaced by another group of corrupt, sleaze ridden, arrogant scumbags who the people didn’t yet know. As arrogant sleaze goes Labour have been far worse than the Tories were. But in 1997 peple didn’t yet know that and so were just happy to see the back of thye Tories.
I expect a similar reaction in 2010 and, since I have a very low opinion of all politicians, I don’t yet have any confidence that the next lot in power won’t end up exactly the same way.
See Heff is calling for Osborne to be replaced by John Redwood!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/15/do1501.xml
re 68. This all adds up to the argument that all governments need to be given the boot after eight or so years. The longer they are there the more corrupt they become.
69
No matter what the relative merits of the two men, it would be absolutely stupid for Cameron to replace his shadow chancellor at a time like this. I think Redwood has shown himself to be very astute when it comes to the current economic situation but no matter how good he is, to replace Osborne right now would be suicidal for Cameron.
69 - This must be the umpteenth time he has done that!
69 - I’m surprised that he doesn’t put himself forward for the role. This is the man who on 1 October announced to a grateful nation that:
“The path a responsible opposition - possibly one that included, as Tory oppositions used to, people who had worked in business and finance and who therefore had a grasp of events - would take is clear.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/01/do0101.xml
New SUSA polls for :
South Carolina
McCain 55% .. Obama 41% - Note - Underpoll of AA by 7 points.
Washington State
McCain 40% .. Obama 56%
New Mexico
McCain 45% .. Obama 52%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=abcfc910-197c-4e26-ac73-caa27a7dcb95
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3520ed8f-f1c8-4ffd-9bbe-df5a5d8ed5e5
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ba699494-7256-4aa2-9b23-70937ba83401
Chinese GP fastest lap: Betfair has
Hamilton at 5, Massa at 3.4 and Raikonnen at 2.72.
If you wanted to, you could put X on Hamilton, 1.5X on Massa and 2X on Raikonnen to finish ahead by about half X if any of them win. Of course, if none do, you’re 4.5X down.
From the Heffer article:
“The whole landscape has changed. The Tory party needs a new plan, and fast.”
70
I think there is some merit in that idea Mike. The problem is that I adhere to the idea that we elect constituency representatives not governments. Now if you are suggesting that we have term limits on MPs then that is something worth debating but of course the argument would then be about relative experience levels.
I think a better answer would be to put further limits on the powers of the ‘Government’ as opposed to the powers of Parliament.
This is one of our NATO allies:
Mr Haarde voiced a sharp sense of grievance when he said: “We have not received the kind of support that we were requesting from our friends. So in a situation like that one has to look for new friends.”
No question that the Russian gesture has gone down well in Iceland and Gordon Brown’s railing at Icelandic banks has not.
If Gordon is taking over our foreign policy, we’ll be at war with France within the month.
57…and youir forecast for gilt yields in a year’s time is?
76. rule 1 of politics, always ignore Simon Heffer.
70. Mechanism for getting rid of individual corrupt MPs maybe. Petition-based by-election or something.
It is amazing that anyone still actually READS the stupid ‘Effer.
And, not betting on qualifying myself but, Raikonnen’s 6/1 to win the session (ie qualify in pole). Last race (Japan) he was 2nd to Hamilton with Massa 5th. Last year he was second to Hamilton (went on to win of course).
76 - Presumably it is the standard Heffer plan that he thinks is needed, vicious, nasty, regressive and entirely out of tune with the modern facts of life.
Roger - Tony Blair has a £500,000 a year job with JP Morgan. Hedge Fund Squillionaires and Bankers queued to get Lordships and posts on Labour run quangos. THey’ve given money to Labour in their millions.
The Tories the party of big business and bankers? Where’ve you been the last 15 years? lol
I know that this is wildly offtopic and not even anything to do with politics, and I know that it’s a public relations stunt, but really:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2008/oct/15/glasgow-scotland
What kind of lunatics put this list together? A good half of the cities on this list aren’t even the top cities in their own country, never mind the world. One of them I wouldn’t stay overnight in unless paid to do so on business.
78. Way to go Gordy! Label a NATO ally a terrorist state. Push them into the arms of the Ruskies. And hold them up to public ridicule as part of your “Arc of Insolvency”.
And for what? Cos you are frightened of losing a by-election in the seat next door to your own. You really are a pathetic item.
Iceland, ireland and Norway are not daft you know. This has been noted. Next time you are looking for a friend in northern Europe you may just meet an awful lot of cold shoulders.
#45 Increased borrowing (deferred taxation) and/or taxation?
Which is why I think there is a possibilty Gordon will cut and run before the next budget.
71
Redwood being astute!
From John Redwoods Website Oct the 6th
Governments should look after taxpayers. Taxpayers cannot afford to nationalise the banks. If governments assume too many new risks by taking on the assets of the banks or buying them up, it merely shifts the problems from the private sector to the public sector. It does not solve it. The problem will then become how do governments pay all the bills? How can they finance themselves in a non inflatonary way? How high do taxes have to go? A banking crisis does not suspend the laws of public finance. Buying bank shares is just like hiring teachers or buying more paperclips for a government office - only less popular with the taxpayer.
October the eight
At last the authorities have woken up to the scale of the problems in the money and banking markets. Any sensible person this morning wishes the government’s plan well and hopes it will succeed. Let me begin with some supportive points.
Spot the difference
87
As I said yesterday (or the day before?) Brown’s attacks on Iceland have gone down very badly in Norway. Not wise to annoy or worry the people who are going to be supplying you with the majority of your gas for the next 30 years.
68 — cash for honours, cash for access and Bernie’s millions haunted Labour from day one, not day one of the ninth year.
89
spot the selective quoting by Coldstone.
I am with people expresssing sceptism about this theory…. and whether it reflects anything about Gordon at all.
I think it tends to reflect the fact that people always have more confidence in the people currently running the economy to continue running it rather than a bunch of political neophytes who haven’t run anything (true in 1997 and now). In 1997, this was by no means sufficient to outweigh the feeling that it was time to kick the Tories out. Next time around, who knows?
Heffer (has he ever had a real job) writes for the wilder fringe of UKIP for the pleasure of Labour and Lib Dem activists who cut and paste his rants.
I suppose they get the same kind of pleasure reading Heffer as Conservatives do from experiencing Mrs Marr spin from side to side in the Guardian as she praises/damns/praises Brown; presumably according to whether there is an R in the month. It was noticeable that her invective towards Brown was at its peak between May and August and changed to overwhelming enthusiasm as we reached September.
91
I agree John, I was just pointing out that in ‘97 the majhority of people did not yet think that way. Labour were corrupt and power crazed long before they got into office. But it took a while for the people to realise that.
90. Richard - “Not wise to annoy or worry the people who are going to be supplying you with the majority of your gas for the next 30 years.”
England needn’t worry about that. Scotland will sell you plenty of energy and water… at the right price. And if you keep in our good books of course…
I wonder if the current claims made by Labour supporters regarding Brown’s prowess in handling the banking crisis will rebound very quickly. The claims of no more boom and bust in the late 1990s looked out of place a year ago as the housing market turned down. Won’t the boasts about Brown leading the world in rescuing the banks look like hollow bragging when unemployment rises, houses are repossessed, businesses fail and pension funds become worse off. I don’t think the electorate segment the economic crisis. They don’t give credit for the handling of the banking problems. They look at matters in the round and see a mess. This will be contrasted with the inappropriate self-glorification we’ve seen recently. Brown’s character will become even more of an issue.
96
LOL.
Maybe you would like some nice shiny beads??
The premise of the sub-question is fallacious: That the Gordon Brown that the Tories face today is same as the one they faced in 1997. Gordon Brown has changed as has the experience of the electorate. Gordon is a far better known quantity, he spent ten years at No.11. and the public have seen him in that role.
Some aspects of Gordon have’nt changed, his manner, his inarticulacy, and so on. But, this is altered by the experience of being in power. Surely the question becomes “What is the narrative of the past decade?”
“Gordon Brown presided over a long economic expansion” - “Ergo he is the man to deal with the downturn”
or is it
“Gordon Brown wasnt that good a Chancellor and was responsible for the bust and crash through bad management” - “Ergo chuck him out”.
Note that narrative one does not lead to “He is the man to deal with the downturn”, but it might. Economically the answer is the latter. There are various mad labourites who dont believe that, but it is true - the Tories would have done as well if not slightly better*, govt influence on the economy is limited. (Then again there are lots of mad Tory trolls who think that the economy has been disastrous over the past decade and someone is “fixing” the statistics.)
Now one could argue that Gordon’s skills will help to shape the narrative, but the big question is whether scenario 1 or 2 fits the public view of the past decade.
*They would also have espoused light touch regulation with the same degree of fervour as Gordon. And they would have done almost exactly the same package as Gordon just did. They certainly wouldnt have gotten away with claiming the past decade was an Age of Irresponsibility.
97
I did wonder if Brown was being set up by the media. You know the British psyche, build someone up and then trash them. Well Gordon’s got it coming IMHO, in spades.
Gordon, You ARE the weakest link.. Goodbye.
Re 1997, I always felt “Black Wednesday”/”loss of Tory credibility on the economy” were red herrings when it came to explaining the landslide defeat. This old poll seems to confirm that. People were just fed up of the Tories after 18 years, the various scandals, and rather liked the look of that nice, middle England Mr Blair.
There are certainly parallels with the current situation on all of the above.
But of course, Major didn’t single-handedly save the global economy from ruin and become feted round the planet as the new Churchill…
96
Contracts signed with Norway are long term, the Frigg field for instance was signed over 20 years ago, and is still running.
I don’t think Norway will be in anyway influenced by the spay with Iceland when it comes to oil and gas. The UK is well placed to take Norways energy, through St Fergus near Peterhead.
p.s.
I have noticed, that the latest landfall for Norwegian Gas is at Easington on the English NE coast.
p.p.s.
Salmond’s shaking of the begging bowl, surely it would be a good idea to give him the billion, in one pound coins, piled high in Parliament Square and tell him he can take it back to Edinburgh in his pockets.
98. Err… ‘fraid not. The natives have grown a tad more sophisticated of late!
We insist on hard cash or gold bullion. You will not like our credit terms either…
Kan du norska Richard? Det kan inte jag, men jag kunde nog klara mig i Oslo pga min perfekt svenska.
Men herregud, inte den konstiga bryttningen de har i Bergen!
Where’s Gabble when you need it to tell you how much the stock market is up by ?
Frankly who gives a toss what the Icelanders think. They certainly did not give a toss for us over cod
If the tactic gets the money back for local government and charity, do I care if they feel a little bit bruised - absolutely not. Our traditional role is to smile meekly and take it on the chin - is that what you “muscular” tories are suggesting? I don’t see why we should, if there is something we can do, then do it. Its just about power - which is 50% of what politics is all about
We’ve bailed out the banks for their mistakes, sadly we have got to do as much as possible for the local authorities and charities, to cover their mistakes as well.
I was chatting to a Tory who has been phone canvassing in Glenrothes. The results of the admittedly small sample; a few tories (<15%), the majority tribal diehards, both Labour and SNP, two switching from Labour to SNP, zero LibDems. This was just before Gordon saved the world of course.
#104 No doubt Gabble will be along around 12:00 to give us the LIBOR numbers.
107. Will he be here in 5 minutes to give us the new unemployment numbers ?
96
Oh! one other thing, prior to the arrival of Gas into St Fergu. Gas was taken from the Southern North Sea at Bacton, (Norfolk) pumped through the whole of the system all the way to Scotland, (probably at a loss) a very expensive LNG plant was built at Glenmavis, for added security etc. It was felt at the time that despite the operational difficulties, Scotland should not be deprived of the advantages of North Sea Gas.
Harold Wilson insisted on it!!
105, I always thought terrorist legislation was meant to be used against terrorists. Then again, Walter Wolfgang did look very much like a suicide bomber, and shouting out ‘nonsense’ really is the moral equivalent of murdering a dozen innocent people. And then Iceland, that well known hotbed of extremist violence, obviously deserved to be part of the Axis of Evil.
This just proves that the government’s authoritarian laws are not aimed solely at terrorists but at extending the power of the state beyond what its boundaries should be.
108 - Unemployment up!
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk1008.pdf
90. Not quite true. Google “Brown” and “Norway” and you’ll find the Norwegian PM praising Brown for his handling of the crisis.
Indeed, much as it pains me to say it, I have seldom seen a British prime minister get such adoring coverage, at any time, anywhere.
“Brown leads the world”; “the man who saved the world banking system”, “British PM touts global oversight”, “Why Britain is leading the world out of this banking crisis”, “Gordon Brown’s Churchillian moment”.
And this is from the FOREIGN press. Rightwingers will just have to grin and bear it - and maybe, reluctantly, admire the legerdemain - Gordon has pulled off a PR coup.
The only hope for us right-thinking people is the faint note of hysteria in this narrative. I think it’s overdone. We’re not out of the woods yet, for a start; moreover such swooning feels self-conscious and contrived, everyone WANTS to feel relieved and happy. The rebound resentment, as the recession kicks in, could be as nasty for Labour as the present Gordomania is nice.
But still, you have to admire the headlines.
My impression in ‘97 was that a major Lab breakthrough was getting close to level pegging on the economy, which until then had been the big Con advantage.
111, if it continues at that number Blanchflower’s 2m by Christmas prediction will be proved a slight underestimate.
Jeg kan snakke litt og jeg forstår mer men i Norge alle snakker engelsk, så jeg blir late.
The beads are very shiny by the way
111. Unemployment up 164k in the last 3 months, employment DOWN 122k. Worst figures since the early 1990s - and it’s just the start. Oh dear Labour.
Gordo botched it says economist
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4944138.ece
Two conclusions cannot be avoided. The first is that it would have been better if the Bank of England had reacted to the recent troubles in the same way that it did, so brilliantly and effectively, in past crises. The support should have been pre-emptive and low-key, and it should have come as a traditional lender-of-last-resort loan. It ought to have been unnecessary for the Treasury to offer the strange mishmash of “money” that is now available on semi-confiscatory terms.
Secondly, the international competitiveness of Britain’s banking industry is being destroyed. Nationalisation will cause undue caution and rigidity in banks’ operations, while talented and experienced bank executives will seek to work elsewhere. In many cases they will emigrate.
102. coldstone - “I have noticed, that the latest landfall for Norwegian Gas is at Easington on the English NE coast.”
Whitehall and the British Establishment would never admit it, but they are slowly and surely preparing for Independence Day. There have been a myriad decisions, small and large, over the last few years which point to pre-independence preparation. The Easington landfall is but one of them.
The biggest issue is probably Faslane/Trident. The ground is being prepared there too. There is a historical example of a similar problem after Irish independence: the three deep water treaty ports at Lough Swilly, Berehaven, and Queenstown.
‘New pipeline to deliver a fifth of UK gas’
BBC, June, 2004
The UK is thus left with little choice: It must increase further imports of gas from Norway and Russia, as well as from the Middle East which uses ships to transport LNG.
Langeled is the longest underwater gas pipeline ever built.
However: “This increasing dependency on imported gas as a major energy source has raised questions about the security of gas supply,” the House of Lords report said.
“Clearly if there were, for example, a terrorist attack on either of the two existing terminals at St Fergus in Scotland and Bacton in Norfolk, then this could produce a national emergency for which the Government would have to assume immediate responsibility,” the report said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3835441.stm
Note the use of terrorism as the reason used for the Easington decision. This is a common thread in the shenanigans of Westminster and Whitehall.
re 118. I find that very reassuring.
I’ve been reminding myself of previous results in Canada. Since 2000, the Liberal Party has gone down from 175 to 78; in Ontario it has gone down from 100 to 38; in Quebec from 36 to 13.
The appearance of the map is fun. I knew that Ontario had about 1/3 of the entire population of Canada, but I didn’t realise (or I had forgotten) that almost all of that is in the small southern pointy corner.
Even more fun is that the MP for Nunavut is Leona Aglukkaq.
112
The Norwegian PM is one man - and one who won’t be in that post come the end of next year. More to the point he is the leader of AP - the Arbeidsparti or the Norwegian equivalent of the Labour party. peak to the normal people in Norway as opposed to the small ruling clique and you get a very different impression.
Besides as I keep repeating the Norwegian Government are hardly going to criticise the bail out since they did it first in 1992.
106. Scott - “… zero LibDems.”
Stuart! if it is the wish of the Scottish people to go for independence I wish them well! Although I think the last few days, might give them pause for thought.
Terrorism is a constant worry when it comes to Gas installations, there were IRA attacks on Gas Holders, and Canvey LNG terminal, by the IRA.
68. all that happened in 1997 was that one group of corrupt, sleaze ridden, arrogant scumbags who the people knew were replaced by another group of corrupt, sleaze ridden, arrogant scumbags who the people didn’t yet know.
Yea, indeed, verily it is so: the standard Marxist analysis of the mechanism whereby a small elite section of the imperialist bourgeoisie maintains power by co-opting the token support of the masses once every four years through the limited facade of a bourgeois election, choosing between Tweedledum and Tweedledee, instead of enabling real input by the people in between elections.
116. Good grief, that’s a large increase! By christmas it will get worse too!
119
less reassuring is that because we rely so heavily on one of a limited number of sources for our imported gas, we are liable to large scale disruption. The Kvitbjorn platform which provides about 15% of the gas through Langeled to the Uk is currently shut down untio the spring due to a leak. So yet more pressure for price rises through the winter.
124
I must be the world’s first Libertarian marxist!
125. Absolutely. It’ll be fun seeing Cooper, Darling et. al explaining a massive rise in unemployment away. I think this has the potential to sink Labour’s ratings below 20% by early next year. The public are going to be very shocked indeed, having become accustomed to very benign jobs market conditions.
117 “Nationalisation will cause undue caution and rigidity in banks’ operations, while talented and experienced bank executives will seek to work elsewhere. In many cases they will emigrate”
If only some of them had emigrated already! They could have ruined the banking systems in other countries instead of ours.
125. Yep, truly horrible unemployment figures. The BBC has an expert quoting “3m unemployed by Christmas 2009″ - that’s Thatcher style unemployment (and she had the very valid excuse she was saving a terminally diseased economy).
What price Gordo the superhero then? No one will give a F what he did during Black October, if there are 3 million out of work. Labour will be forced to eat those words “No more boom and bust” - like a dog consuming its own vomit.
Labour must be thinking of a snap General Election. It’s their best bet.
128: Unemployment is historically the most lagging of indicators. It has only just begun. Look at the surveys from e.g. Hays recruitment. The phrase “falling off a cliff” is overused, but well, it ain’t pretty.
FTSE today says bailout not after the all the herald of a new world order of sunny prosperity…
128, can’t see that. I think Labour’s floor may be 20-22%. If the Lib Dems weren’t led by an idiot it could be different, but they are.
130. Turkey don’t vote for Christmas. They may as well hang on to their salaries and perks for another 18 months.
The Glenrothes bye election is becoming a pivotal event:
Labour wins : the Gordo revival bandwagon will gather pace
SNP wins : a huge pin will pop Gordo’s bubble as the cruel winter bites.
Mike could you frame SeanT’s comment 112 above - perhaps even lead a thread with it.
As good an example of why we all read Politicalbetting.com.
I love the last paragraph where Sean expresses the hope that the world has not actually been saved by SuperBrown and that we are in fact all doomed - which would allow “right-thinking people” to resume their proper place ruling over us!
If there is any British history in the future this government will go down as the worst ever.
130. This is why I’ve been saying an election this year is on the cards. It may will be the best chance Labour gets if economists are correct (they are far more bearish than our politicians and pundits).
The cost of the bailout in terms of GDP, jobs, debt and so on will be horrendous. If Labour waits for that bill to land on the mat they are sunk.
A couple of polls with Labour level-pegging may push them to do it.
135. Heh, thankyou. Immortality beckons. Actually, I didn’t express the desire for the world to end, I expressed a certainty that recession was looming, which would puncture the unpleasant, unjustified and undeniably impressive Gordophoria we are at present experiencing.
Hold on to yer hats, anyway: FTSE down 2.8% so far this morning.
137, I disagree. The recession will be in full swing and getting worse, and questions over the timing would be rife (especially as Brown said there would not be one this year).
By 2010, things may’ve bottomed out, allowing Brown to claim he’d made the economy better.
115. It always cracks me up reading/listening to Norwegian. You sound like a bunch of hillbillies to Swedish ears!
Actually, if I try not to concentrate on what people are saying, but just listen to the rhythm and the sounds, then Norwegians sound very like Scots. Kind of sing-songy. Swedes are more like the English… in more ways than one. I’ll stop there!
I always remember my first trip to Norway. As the ferry was coming into sight of land a Swedish guy who I was chatting with said something like “Nu kommer vi till u-landet” - approx “Here we are arriving in the 3rd world.” Swedes have traditionally thought of Norway as a backward land of peasants, which is quite ironic, because to someone from Scotland, Sweden seems to have only very recently emerged from agrarian backwardsness itself. Courtesy not least of its many Scottish immigrants who dragged it into the modern world.
The irony now is that Norway is stinking rich, and the Swedes are incredibly jealous. They are crap at trying to hide it too.
(SeanT : please note that the Norwegian PM is a Labourite.)
136
If there is any British history in the future ???????????
ONS - “The unemployment rate was 5.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.”
Think about it - up from 5.2% to 5.7% is an increase of 9.6%.
“The number of unemployed people increased by 164,000 over the quarter”
A quarter is 13 weeks - so that equates to 12,615 people every week.
If the week is just six working days, 2,102 people have lost their jobs every day. 2,102 lots of pain and misery.
I sincerely wish you were one of them, Brown.
110. John’s point at 105 was not that the right legislation had been used but that the government had acted robustly in the country’s interests.
Yesterday was great for Obama in the polls. He’s never been this high in the rcp poll average, nor had such a big lead over McCain. RCP make his lead 8.2% and 538’s model puts him 8.1% ahead. Even Karl Rove projects that he’s going to win the presidency with 300 EV.
Given the momentum, the likely continued focus on the economy, the impact Palin seems to be having on undecideds and the fact that early votes are already being cast, is the 20% return that betfair are offering one of the best investment opportunities available?
1.71 on a Conservative majority on betfair now - I’m filling up.
137 trouble with that is, there needs to be what a 4 week campaign? So if they waot for a cpuple of polls - lets say they come out this weekend, then call an election on Monday that means we go to the polls mid to late November - dark, cold, not a good time to be campaigning - any later than that we ar ein to December and no-one goes to the polls in December so we are through to Feb before the next real chance.
I just cannot see it - on the basis of a couple ‘level-peggers’ which would have to conclude ware soft-switchers witout further polls showing this being consolidated.
What message does it put out too - there is an ongoing crisis but I am going to the polls to try and take advantage of it?
137 You can have that at 16/1 with Betfair, GLW. Be careful not to knock anybody over in your haste to take it.
140
Sweden has made its place in the world by producing some of the best automobiles and aircraft that exist.
The SAAB Draken for instance created the tactical fighter concept, and set the standard for the rest of the world.
Norway has survived, because of an accident of geology!
7: ‘They’d seen Peter Lilley sing songs ridiculing single mothers at conference while the blue rinses squealed with pleasure.’
I thought Lilley did his singing antics after the 1997 election when Hague was leader.
Nick Robinson is being polite here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/10/its_the_real_ec.html
Gordon Brown has been presented by many as a Churchill figure in the war to save global capitalism. Quicker than he might wish, politics will now turn to dealing with aftermath. The prime minister, I’m told, wants to create a mood of national unity and solidarity to help us all cope with the trial ahead. He’s hoping to create a spirit of the economic Blitz. His opponents believe that we’re more likely to see anger and frustration in a period of economic rationing.
146. 16.5/1 now
137, 146. Or 50/1 with ladbrokes, if you prefer.
140. The other day I got out my old “Teach Yourself Icelandic” book. I never got further than the first lesson.
hér er hustur - here is a horse
um hest - about a horse
frá hesti - from a horse
til hests - to a horse
After that, it gets yukky because nouns are divided into masculine, feminine and neuter; each gender has about 3 or 4 categories, and each category has aboutt 2 or 3 sub-divisions; and as is often the case, there are loads of exceptions.
149. I think the public will become increasingly unified - in a desire to kick this tired, useless government out.
145. It would be justified as a khaki election. A wartime crisis economic emergency referendum blah blah blah.
They MUST be thinking of it. The unemployment figures are so horrifying - coupled with the total slump in housing sales - and the spikes in inflation. Ouch. This could easily be the worst recession since 1981-2, if not even more severe.
Gordon’s sudden popularity ain’t gonna last for long. Also, they’ve only got 17 months left anyway, and do they want to be cornered into May 2010, when voter anger will probably be at its height?
I bet Mandy and Campbell are chatting about it right now.
147. coldstone
I know that Sweden has had impressive industries in the modern era, but that is the point: Sweden is actually a very young country! Prior to the late 1800’s there was not a heck of a lot of ‘civilisation’ in most of Sweden outside a few bright-ish spots. In a European context Sweden is incredibly lacking in “depth”, history, architecture, art an culture. It is all shockingly rustic I’m afraid. God, look what a snob I am!
The glory days of the Swedish automobile industry are over I’m afraid. Volvos are just over-priced Fords, and Saabs over-priced Vauxhalls. Sad really.
I think if a GE was called the mood of the nation would shift decisively against ‘the Flash’. Most voters are capable of this much thought: the election is not about the current crisis, it will decide who will govern for the next 5 years. Do I want five more years of Labour? (pause to think of the record of the last ten years). No. So long Gordon, and thanks for all the fish.
148. Although a shocking singer, at least Lilley called the BoE losing it’s powers to the FSA right in 97.
151. Are you going Cheltenham at all this week Shadsy?
Brown is the most hubristic failure to be PM. If he really believes his own hype - and looking at his manic grin it is fairly certain he does - then I can imagine his intellectual light cavalry in Balls, Alexander and Boggit encouraging him in the thought that now is the time.
The Saviour of the World can surely not fail. The people will adore him for his skill and dash. He will ride a wave of popular adulation to victory.
Ignore the Prince and the other Blairite has-beens, ignore the polls, they will shout, they are always behind public opinion and already show we are closing the gap fast. Look at the foreign press, read the hack economists in America. What are you waiting for?
Don’t laugh. Think about the man, his mania and his minions.
151 Would it be improper, Shadsy, to enquire as to just how much you have taken at that very generous 50/1?
154 - I would say that even if it is a relatively mild recession statistically speaking the fact is that a sizeable portion of the working and voting populace have only ever experienced the good times. They have also heard the government trumpeting ‘an end to boom and bust’, so however bad it is in reality, psychologically it will feel a lot worse.
PfP, from a couple of threads back.
You asked about the markets on the first of a list of states for McCain to retain. Looking at the different predictions on here that would seem to fall to North Carolina and West Virginia at the moment but I expect a tightening so that may become somewhere like Missouri or Ohio. The difficulty with this is that, if republicans feel the writing is on the wall, they may not turn out or vote for Barr (it is less likely to affect the more enthused Obama vote). So it may go forwards to Indiana or Montana or, with an October ’surprise’ maybe even back to Florida or Virginia.
In short, it would be a braver man than me to pick the few states that would turn a profit as a percent or so either way encompasses a myriad of possibilities!
167. Sadly not, woody.
147
Not exactly accurate Coldstone. All countries survive and thriev by taking advantage of their local resources. In the case of Sweden they have a good automobile and aircraft industry in part because of their reserves of iron, zinc and copper. They are the only Iron ore exporter in Europe.
Now they have taken advantage of this fact to develop a speciality in one field. Others with equally good resources have not. In the same way some countries with oil wealth have used it wisely and are also world leaders in exploration and development - Norway being one of them - whilst others have not.
157 Did somebody mention Cheltenham?
Might be there Friday but more likely Saturday.
I very much doubt an election as I get the impression that Gordon and his circle see this as a shortish recession with upturn mid 2009 so that he can go to the country in mid 2010 on basis he saved the world and his experience was vital in steering the UK economy - it was bad but would have been disastrous without him.
The “credit at 2007 levels”, change to the 40% limit on debt point to a reflationary budget, with perhaps some stimulus coming this Autumn at time of the PBR. I don’t think, as I have said, that Gordon Brown accepts there was anything fundamentally at fault in his policies and economic management, he is telling it like he sees it when he blames it all on US sub prime crisis and commodity/oil prices.
On unemployment - forecasters are often caught out, I remember well the BBC going full throttle on Today when figures were forecast to break the 4 million figure in the early 90’s only to face a fall in the figures, the beginning of the ongoing fall as recovery took over. In this recession I have seen forecasts as varied as a peak of 2.5 million (on basis that shakeout in the 90’s meant less fat and much of the unemployment would soaked up by East Europeans going home) through to 6.25 million, with UK hit harder due to growth being built on credit. Between 3 & 4 million as a peak looks most likely, with a slow recovery in 2010.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 44.5% .. Obama 52.5% .. Others 3%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 143 .. Obama 317 .. Toss Up 78
Changes Since Last Projection - New Mexico moves from Likely Obama to Safe Obama. Nevada moves from Toss Up Obama to Likely Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 163 .. Obama 375
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
Is it Hague v Harman at PMQs today ?
156 - Brown’s best chance was last Autumn - ‘The Election that never was’
In the next GE campaign, the electorate will be reminded of his complete failure to look after the economy, as every other billboard will be plastered with the immortal line ‘No more Boom and Bust’.
unemployment could be increasing by 100,000 per month by Christmas.
169. Well it’s more than likely that the next month’s data at least will be very unpleasant. You can’t go to the country on the back of these kinds of figures unless you have a death wish.
158
But that is a gamble. He bets a certain 18 months of No.10 against the chance of four years of renewed government.
And Brown is a coward.
164. I’m there Fri Peter and Ludlow Thurs. A friend has a runner at both meetings. Send me an e-mail if you’re going to be about.
168 with the picture of Brown laughing…
117. Congdon is a solid economist, but he is barking up the wrong tree (to some extent). He was in favour of bailing out NR, saying it was making money for the taxpayer in September 2007. I think that in a systemic crisis of the sort we face, banks do have to lump it to some extent.
Where he does have a point is the stake taken by the state. If the taxpayer had ended up with less of RBS, with a high preference dividend and potentially more generous conversion terms, the banks might have been better incentivised as would external shareholders to stump up money. It would have dealt with the questions of how long dividends cannot be paid (which I believe some LTSB shareholders are grumbling about). Structure issues like this are an area where incentives really count and I get the impression that the present deal is too concerned with protecting taxpayer interests and not enough with other factors.
The premise that recession, unemployment and economic difficulty make people more likely to kick out the incumbent government is wrong IMO.
Changes of government in 1997, 1970, 1964 and 1951 took place during periods in which the economy was improving, having come through periods of difficulty. 1974 and 1979 are exceptions.
Labour will achieve a permanent improvement in its position following the events of the last couple of weeks. Brown’s sure-footed performance has surprised everyone - me included. This may not be enough to win an election, but the wipe-out that the Tories here have been salivating about over the past few months is now off the agenda.
166 - Thanks as ever JackW. What’s striking is that, even before eliminating toss-up states, you’ve got Obama on 317.
Obama estimates, comparisons with yesterday where shown:
Jack W: 375
David Herdson: 358
ukpaul: 349
538: 361 (up 1)
Electoral Vote: 357 (unchanged)
Real Clear Politics: 364 (unchanged)
Sporting Index spread: 334-340
Betfair ‘Next President Obama’: 1.21
168 - A conservative PEB could be quite easy to knock up, just a few minutes of Gordon and other members of the government saying the ‘no more boom and bust’ mantra, with various gloomy economic statistics being flashed over the top of the pictures.
175. Remember Gordo single handedly saved the worlds from floods and Bird Flu last summer by single handedly cancelling his holiday with his “wife” and chairing/drinking a few Cobras.
Or so the Beeb and the Mirror told us.
I have deja vu.
172 Will do, Woody.
Tim Vaughan is likely to have one or two at Ludlow. I won’t be there but will pass on any relevant info if it comes to hand - not likely to be until near the off though. Can you pick up emails at the track?
175 - All that shows is that if the economic problems are bad enough there is a considerable electoral overhang!
146. Done.
175.
“The premise that recession, unemployment and economic difficulty make people more likely to kick out the incumbent government is wrong IMO”
Common sense tells me this is bullsh1t. And I’m with common sense on this one. There are exceptions, of course, but on the whole voters don’t like being made unemployed and poorer - and they will punish a government that does this.
Live now, pay later…
Just had a letter informing me that my NatWest Visa limit has been increased by 25%.
So, interbank lending is at about 6%, credit card interest rates are… yes, I get the picture - borrow long, lend short, stuff the customer.
182 seanT “and they will punish a government that does this.”
Particularly if the government owns the bank which has put their employer into liquidation or repossessed their house.
123. The current conditions will most certainly make a big impression on the large number of “Dont Knows/Maybes” on the Independence question. However I think that the biggest impact has been the constant tinkering by Brown on matters that were in Holyrood control, interfering to cut money , using various measures on spending to circumvent Barnett and not have to pay same to Scotland, as well as various petty things liek keeping control of Holyrood elections.
These are the things that have really pissed off a lot of people , most of them small and done just out of nastiness because Labour are not in power.
This has allowed the SNP to show that , Westminster can just poke their nose and stop Scotland making the decisions they want and in my opinion has been by far the biggest reason for the increasing number being interested in independence.
Nick C - “Brown’s performance surprised everyone”
For goodness sake don’t be so naive. The opposition parties AGREED to cease hostilities / political critisim on the issue at hand during this crisis, very sensibly as we were facing The Abyss last week (and still might again).
Of course he looked very happy - he knew he could do what he wanted without fear of being “dissed”.
How could he have looked / performed any other way in such circumstances?
The full effect of all this turmoil on the economy and the severity of the downturn and subsequent recovery must depend on the final effect on the financial services business. That is a major element in the boom of the last fourteen years.
As the Economist suggests, Brown may have damaged that quite severely and all those overseas financial enterprises which once thought it important to have a large base here may move elsewhere. Perhaps Dubai, or further afield.
What that will do to employment is anyone’s guess, although it is already certain that tens of thousands of jobs will be lost in that sector just from bank collapses and mergers and the loss of business to ancillary services.
It will not be easy to replace that lost wealth creation. Our manufacturing is declining fast, other services are going to find investment difficult, and none of them will be able to replace the foreign currency earnings of the financial firms.
So there will likely be an effect on the balance of payments too. Will that net out the expected reduction in imported goods and services including overseas holidays, so we are as badly off as before with a weak currency, imported inflation and a declining ability to earn our way out of it.
Inflation down to 1% by Christmas? Well it is only in the summer that I saw ‘analysts’ predicting the FTSE at 7,000 by the end of the year.
Massive government borrowing and off books spending from thin air is not going to help reduce inflation or interest rates.
This government will try to get out of jail quick with instant reflation by spending, spending, spending and making it all worse.
Stagflation must be a real possibility. Nasty. The 70’s reborn.
174. Ken - I agree with Tim Congdon about 50%. I think under the old system of financial regulation there would have been a more effective handling of this crisis and probably a lower taxpayer cost. However I very much doubt that recapitalisation could have been avoided altogether - that would have taken effective intervention at a much earlier stage (i.e 2006!) I also share his concerns about the long-term future of the UK banking sector after this debacle.
175. I disagree. The wipeout is actually more likely. Why? Because Brown remains stuck in an unenviable position of trying to keep his activists (more to the left) on board, while placating the centre. The left have visions of Brown forcing banks to lend more and prevent repossessions. The reality will be nothing of the sort. If Gordon doesnt go for a GE soon, the contradictions in his position will begin to hurt the party - together with a deteriorating economic position.
As for this being a short recession, the bottom line from the banking crisis is that the banks lent far too much money, to hedge funds, to each other, to private equity firms, to firms and individuals. The fall in markets has reflected the deleveraging taking place in banks and hedge funds. The next stage will be to tighten credit across corporates and individuals. This is going to be a very nasty deleveraging downturn. It’s sharp on the way down, and the after effects will drag on. I hope that Brown will engage in aggressive fiscal stimulus, infrastructure projects and so on. But, that will merely blunt the impact of as nasty a recession since we faced the end of the Lawson boom.
176 Richard
For betting purposes, Jack’s ARSE is the best guide. Its two most extreme points show a definite worst and best case. It’s now hard to see how Obama could score less than 317 or more than 375. I stopped buying at 336. My guess is he’ll go above that but there just isn’t enough upside to justify the risk.
182. it does depend somewhat on what the choices are on offer. being laid off is pretty bad - but would it make you vote for a party that apparently thinks the unemployed are all lazy and stupid, and would be happy to cut off your benefits if you can’t find a new job quickly enough?
139 Morris Dancer By 2010, things may’ve bottomed out, allowing Brown to claim he’d made the economy better.
No offence, Morris, but pigs might fly. This is going to be a big one, as they say, no question. However, Gordon is likely to be thinking along those lines, that things will get better etc etc (whereas the effects of house price falls, worldwide recession, have barely started to take effect), and so May 2010 it is.
The Captain of the UKS Enterprise is a Klingon.
188. Yup. If Brown doesnt cool his rhetoric he faces seeing investment banking moving somewhere much friendlier. And he can wave bye-bye to all those lovely tax revenues. As it is, his incompetence and dithering on tax policy has already made a lot of people nervous.
177 - The problem the opposition parties have, is which nuggets to choose from the rich seam of material available.
For Labour, Black Wednesday is now a subject to be avoided at all costs.
For the Conservatives it’s worth making a ‘confession’ regarding the true costs of the ERM debacle, versus the costs of shoring up Northern Rock and the other busted banks.
192. Stephen Phelps. He’s a Klingon? So “Today is a good day to die?” A mortal insult to a warrior race…And in the original polsci discussions of Star Trek, the Federation was the US/West, the Klingons were the USSR and the Romulans were the Chinese.
189. Yes - this ‘lending at 2007 levels’ pledge is going to rebound very quickly. It’s a complete fantasy and it was amusing to see the dreadful Yvette Cooper bullsh*tting mightily about it last night under not very hard questioning.
193. is that all the guys who promised to leave in ‘97?
[81] - This idea came up on a thread a while ago in the context of providing a way for an unpopular government to be brought down before the end of five years. We had observed that the last few years of a tired government [ie the present one and Major 1995-1997] are often particularly inept, yet are very hard to get rid of.
I also think it would help to strengthen the much vaunted “constituency link” that is held up as one of the major objection to multi-member STV elections.
The number of petitioners required would have to be fairly high, to prevent the measure being abused, but I think it would benefit everyone if MPs such as the Winterton’s could be removed by their constituents earlier than the next GE.
176 Richard N. 57 of those 317 votes come from Bush states - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Florida that have tipped outside “Toss Up” status.
Looking to find some value in the race is tricky. Obama to win Georgia @ 3/1 strikes me as still a decent punt. Those hopeful of a big AA turnout might like either South Carolina or Mississippi both around 8/1 or together for a tasty double !!
198. But the Wintertons would undoubtedly win any bylection by a street if they stood as official Tory candidates.
197. Brown brown nosed the City. They were nervous but were pleasantly surprised. Brown championed light touch regulation. They stayed. But a few firms are now leaving because the tax environment is better elsewhere. I dont think they ever threatened to leave - and they were certainly bought off. Gordon embracing BIS II being a case in point.
If we are going for stupid snide remarks, I wonder if any of those idiot Guardianistas who threatened to leave London if Boris was elected, have actually done so. Boris certainly hasnt brown nosed them to stay.
193 The line being taken by the Daily Mail - which prides itself on having its finger on the pulse of middle England - is instructive when it comes to who will be blamed for the recession.
The Mail points its readers fingers firmly at the bankers.
198. either you trust the system we have of electing candidates, or you don’t. the half-way house you propose is ridiculous. most of the worst MPs are in safe seats anyway, as noted in 200.
I’ve just been told that a supermarket (Morrisons) near here isn’t able to take credit cards at the moment. I assume that it’s a local comms problem or something, but given the recent predictions of imminent collapse of the banking system, I thought I’d just check in case anyone knows anything.
179, yeah can pick tem up on my phone. Thanks.
198. Yes, and the threat of it would keep em looking over their shoulders and make the whole system more honest imo.
189. The Labour party have realise that their best chance is a snap election if Glen Bulb manages to win Glenrothes and the polls are half reasonable. Do they have the courage to take advantage of Brown Bounce II? I can’t really tell…
202. Lol - spoof post of the day.
197
And lots of them did. Brown has driven hundreds of thousands of people out of Britain with his combination of stealth taxation, poor services and authoritarianism.
This MP couldnt possibly be Nick Palmer by any chance???? He has form in this area of spin!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/10/its_the_real_ec.html
201. but the point is that when people threaten to leave for such spurious reasons, it is always just hyperbole. even leaving London to a neighbouring county would be far too big an upheaval for anyone to do for political reasons.
the idea of bankers leaving the country completely because of Brown’s rhetoric (as you suggested) or even for much stronger single reasons, is a bit ludicrous. we have a strong banking centre and a good country and they will get a worse deal overall elsewhere. we have to have the confidence to believe that and do the right thing - the alternative, of setting policy based on the threats of people who say they want to leave, is rubbish!
175 Nick C - “Brown’s sure-footed performance has surprised everyone - me included.”
Me too.
PBers, especially those that bet, will recall all too well how Brown’s credibility drained away from him at the time of the non-election. I could not for the life of me see how he might restore it. Now I do.
SeanT spelled this out with characteristic style and his reasons were sound. It does not of course mean that Brown is now the greatest leader since Moses persuaded the waters to part, or even that he will lead Labour to victory in due course. It sort of puts him back close to where he was just over a year ago.
This may not be saying a lot, but it’s a damn site better than it was a month or so ago - for him anyway.
209. did they F
even if they had done, they would have been regretting it for most of the last decade.
211
Wrong tense
We HAD a good banking centre before Brown set out to destroy it with his ineptitude.
202 - Severity of recession = Brown, Credit Crunch = Bankers.
In the Publics eye they’re one and the same, in reality they’re 2 completely separate beasts. It can’t be that difficult to get these simple facts across.
Places like Dubai are looking for ways to make money after the oil runs out. Now would be a good time for them to make a play as a financial centre.
In fact once the stock exchange has finished crashing they could prob buy all the banks with petty cash and just move the lot over there.
209
You obviously don’t bother with facts, just opinions. Go look at the statistics for the numbers of people emigrating from the UK.
Hell, according to the latest news even the Poles have had enough and are going home.
Cameron on, We’re all masters now’ well of the Universe anyway.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/10/cameron-says-he.html
216. It won’t happen overnight. But there is a risk London will now go into steady decline.
190-Peter,old chap-according to an article in the “National Review” this week once you take into account the “partisan” breakdown & then factor in the “leaners” for these polling organisations the Obama lead is +4/5 at this point.A not insurmountable amount at this stage with less than 3 weeks to go.They also believe there are still 1 in 5 undecideds to break either way & bearing in mind things tend to tighten historically the closer to an American Election one gets especially in recent elections, I wonder what your thoughts are on this point of view especially from a betting perspective.
Brown’s scheme going down a treat
GORDON BROWN is facing a City revolt over his £37billion bank bail-out.
Less than 48 hours after the nationalisation scheme was unveiled, bankers claim its tough terms are scaring shareholders and putting the LloydsTSB-HBOS merger in danger.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23573098-details/City+revolt+over+bail-out/article.do
Ugh, seems to be Hague Vs Harman. Not the time for a sideshow, I hope Hague lays into the Manhater.
UK Paul
I’ve been having a look at Shadsy’s ‘McCain Firewall’ market and I think there’s some value there.
At the moment, the most probable candidate is West Virginia. If that goes, a number of States could fall in a heap but it is surely inconceivable that the blue blobs would spread beyond Louisiana. Now, all the States from WV to La on his list are available at pretty decent odds, so you could cover the lot pretty cheaply.
Here are the numbers:
West Virginia 10/1
Montana 16/1
North Dakota 25/1
Georgia 25/1
Arkansas 25/1
Louisiana 33/1
My only reservation is that we are still far enough away from the Election for there yet to be a major shift in the spectrum, either way, which would render this strategy useless and expensive.
I’m going to hold fire for a bit, but plan to return to this intriguing market presently.
O/T - US elections..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/15/uselections2008-barackobama ‘obama 14 points ahead’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/15/us-elections-john-mccain ‘needs knockout blow’
190 PtP. I’d demure that 375 is Obama’s potential top end. In a true landslide with substantial differential AA turnout and other factors I’d put Obama at 434. That’s the present 375 + 59 extra EV’s from West Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska CD 02.
Oh …. and a recount in Texas !! …. another 34 EV’s !!
Brown in Brussels to unveil his cunning plan for World financial regulation. Cos his UK system was sooooo brilliant !!
If Brown manages to lay the blame for the impending recession on bankers then it will be a PR job Cameron could be proud of.
I note that Browns Broadcating Corporation are already spinning it for him by linking inflation and job losses to current financial crisis.
At least they mentioned unemployment as a lagging indicator so that the intelligent listeners could figure out it has nothing to do with current crisis.
Much as Brown will benefit in short term a snap election would juxtapose him against the easy charm of cameron. Think the plodding major against blair.
Finally I think comparisons to previous elections where incumbent party has been re-elected need to be qualified. Generally we need to look at where labour has been re-elected, and then it probably goes back to the sixties. I think at that time politics was more tribal, therefore you voted labour if you were from a certain segment of society, tory from another. Now it is more (but not completely) linked to your profession. I think that the argument is wrong that it’s the tories fault that the bankers have been reckless because they are more likely to support the tories . However are those bankers who have become unemployed suddenly going to change allegiance to labour, because they will receive better benefits out of work. Not likely.
223. Harman will make a mistake, she always does. Hague will ask an innocuous question, she’ll take it the wrong way and attack the tories, leaving Hague every excuse he needs.
Only a few months ago there was much talk about incapacity benefit and how it was being used by many as a way of living permanently on benefit. If I recall correctly, the government was talking about reducing incapacity benefit claimants by a one million, because they weren’t really incapable of work. Also from memory there are some 2.7 million people currently claiming this benefit.
Incapacity benefit did not exist the last time the economy was in recession and the vast majority of those who now claim it would have featured in the unemployed statistics.
So to find the true figure of unemployed I suggest we need to add a substantial chunk of incapacity benefit claimants to the current figures. Even if we take the government at its word and only one million claimants are actually capable of work (a likely underestimate), the true unemployment figure is now close to the 3 million that we saw in the early 1990s. In reality it is probably considerably higher, and the recession has not really started to bite yet.
154 I see your point but I just don’t see them doing it - campaigning on cold, dark nights to sell what message? And there will be further very bleak indicators coming out during the campaign - the whole thing will boil down to Labour being painted as trying to cut and run before the state of the economy is laid bare and frankly, Brown as possible saviour of the banks is not enough to negate the Tory lead as yet - during a campaign the media would not be able to lavish the attention they have on him and his claims would be open to more scrutiny.
Its entirely up to the PM of course but given his track record, is he really going to call an unecessary election form 10 points down?
Most voters don’t understand the credit crunch. It’s clear that a majority on here are hazy about what it means too. Bank liauidity, stock market shorting, CDSs, bailouts and recapitalisation are above our pay grade
The voters will notice effects, look for causes and apportion blame.
Effect: Unemployment. Cause: Falling sales. Blame: Management and Gordon.
Effect: Rising inflation. Cause: Oil prices. Blame: Gordon.
Effect: Rising mortgage rate. Cause: Credit crunch. Blame: Bank and Gordon.
Effect: Negative equity. Cause: Asset bubble, overborrowing. Blame: Self (if honest) and Gordon.
Effect: Cancel foreign hols. Cause: No cash. Blame: Gordon.
He’s going to be very lucky to spin his way out of all of these effects, whatever the foreign press say.
220
I’d like a pound for everytime I’ve heard that one.
222
I can’t imagine of something more likely to drive people, ‘leftwards’ than the sound of moaning bankers and cityspivs, certainly after they’ve been bailed out with taxpayers cash.
I think a period of enforced silence on their part would be most welcome.
211. You’re missing the point. It’s not the rhetoric, it’s the possibility of it being backed up with deeds. If the conditions become unfavourable for the banks, of course they will leave. New York would be a possibility, IIRC, Dubai’s stock exchange is under British law, which makes that a good choice.
222 Lloyds TSB shares are up today, presumably on the expectation that the merger won’t go ahead.
233 - Spot on in all respects. The only question is which party would benefit from people being driven leftwards.
MrJones the infrastructure is in place in Dubai, costs are reasonable, weather is wonderful, communications good, new residential areas on the sea, golf courses available, perhaps the best airline in the world is based there, between Europe and the Far East. What are those high rollers waiting for?§
Oh, and low or non-existent taxes.
236 BTW, many thanks for the Canadian election thread. It’s a pity it didn’t attract more comments.
38 - I don’t know how many times Stuart and his sidekick Easterross have said it - but Edinburgh South will not go Tory - they are in a very poor third place, the local and Holyrood elections showed the Lib Dems improving their position and no amount of Tory/Tartan Tory wishful thinking makes it anything other than a Lab/Lib supermarginal.
237 Personally, I’d find the heat atrocious, and it’s in a part of the World that’s famed for political stability.
Most importantly of all, as far as Westerners are concerned, is it dry, or is alcohol permitted?
240 “not” is missing from the first line.
221. David, the National Review is hardly a bastion of impartiality! I think anyone with half a betting brain can see that the election is over as a contest. It’s now about how much Obama will win by. I expect the race to tighten and am therefore laying Obama at +350 EVs. Others expect Obama to maintain his momentum and threaten states like Georgia and Texas and are looking for value there.
237 - The weather is wonderful? 45C for 5 months isn’t my idea of wonderful.
Oh, and no culture, a dull expat community and a political stability that is dependent on benevolent feudalism.
240 - I see you make the same points before me.
237. Not an expert on the details but I was expecting it to go that way ever since this thing started.
Well at the moment probably the Conservatives, as Dave(call me Trotsky) Cameron is claiming the idea of nationalising the banks was his in the first place.
221 You’ve got to give McCain the benefit of the doubt on every single moot point to keep him in with a shout, David. Of the factors you mention, the most promising one would be the tendency for Presidential races to tighten as the day approaches. Others though tend to point Obama’s way: for example, undecideds have tended to break his way.
The simplest and safest way of looking at the polls is to consider the leads they have given Obama nationally. There have been many over the past two days. They range from 4% (Gallup) to 14% (CBS). The average is 8%.
I don’t see how you can bet on anything but an Obama victory.
It’s all become a bit dull. Backing 1/5 shots doesn’t appeal to me and just about all the value seems to have been squeezed out of the State markets.
Perhaps it’s time to look at the Senate races.
240 - Couldn’t agree more - a friend was trying to persuade me to take a pay-cut to go and work for his father’s company out there, mitigated he said by the lack of tax and the living conditions.
He thought it was heaven on this earth - I actually can’t imagine anywhere more soul-destroying, even without the impossible weather.
246 answer to 236
My sister-in-law’s husband works in Dubai, she did 12 weeks and returned to the UK, couldn’t stand the heat,
I did nearly 2 years in the ME, on the day I left swore I’d never return, and I never will.
Greetings PB-ers from sunny but soon to be tropical-downpour-y Libreville. As I look out my window, all that stands between me, the palm trees and the Atlantic is your average third world traffic jam.
Gather the markets had a headlong rush upwards, got nose-bleeds and are drifting back some. How long before the wheels fall off? Should I bother coming back? Off up river over the weekend to somewhere called “Gorilla Island”, which is rumoured to have something worth seeing. Can’t imagine what….
I think ultiamtely the piublic will turn on Beeney, Spencer and Alsop and hound them through the streets for personally inflating the housing bubble.
Catherine Gee will get away with it on the basis of her track record of helping about 0% of her clientelle actually Escape To The Country.
On a more serious note, the unemployment figures are very very worrying - there was talk this morning of ‘another 30,000′ its actually 70,000 - more than double the estimate on a lagging indicator.
The paralells with 78/79 are eery - ‘Labour isn’t working’ Will that be the main thrust again?
morus have you been there?
229, he doesn’t/shouldn’t need an excuse to attack her. The only so-called argument for not doing so is because she’s a woman. She believes women are equal (or perhaps better) than men, so Hague should show her no deference or kindness based on her gender.
249. pity.
240 Gmbling is also prohibited I believe, Sean.
240. As far as I’m aware it’s a nudge nudge wink wink system. As long as you don’t makea disturbance etc they don’t care.
212 Precisely and the Tories have to recognise that - they can hope that Brown will return to the dithering speak-your-weight machine that he appeared to be a few weeks ago, but they would be unwise to assume that will happen.
The Tories now have to rethink their entire economic philosophy - they have just supported the partial nationalisation of the banking system, a proposal taken straight from Labour’s 1983 suicide note manifesto. I think the full impact of this has yet to sink in - and it will be more difficult for the Tories to adapt to it than Labour.
New Labour’s attitude to the deregulated free enterprise system created by Thatcher can be compared to the Tories’ attiude to the NHS in the 1950s - they did not really like it and would rather that things were different but the apparent success and popularity of the system was so great that it was futile to oppose it. Many people resented the arrogance and greed of the so-called masters of the universe and wished that something could be done about it. Now the edifice has collapsed into the welcoming arms of the taxpayer, and I think Labour will find it easier to articulate a strategy of greater state involvement in the economy that will the Tories.
243. I lived in Dubai for 3 years and liked it a great deal. The low taxation regime was offset by the cost of doing social outreach mentoring among the young women of the Russian community. I hear the Chinese have since come in and trashed the market now though.
258.
Can I bet that Harriet will tease Hague about his Barclays funded Lake Como jolly*?
*I would stress that Mr Hague says he paid for his own hotel and flights!
“…A spokeswoman for Barclays Wealth claimed Sun readers would not be interested in the trip. She said: “This is an event for bankers and clients. It’s not a story for your readers.”
What were you saying about the public thinking that the Tories are Bankers?
250 “Gorilla Island”, Mark?
That’s what we used to call the Isle of Dogs. Something to do with the young ladies there, I believe.
O/T but I love the name of one of the Canadian constituencies “Thunder Bay and Rainy River.”
230 Incapacity benefit was introduced in 1995 but was a replacement for Sickness and Invalidity Benefits , The Thatcher government encouraged the unemployed to go onto these benefits in order to disguise the real level of unemployment in the 1980’s .
254
You’d like there runnynose, your mate Jim Davidson lives there!!
237. Dubai is already trying to become a financial centre, with all the benefits listed, and the truth is that people simply don’t want to live out there. the carrots they are having to dangle are incredible.
Truth is that people who are genuinely prepared to move out of the country for purely cost reasons have already gone - we can’t compete on price with emerging nations, never have been able to and never will.
Meanwhile no business is going to move out of the country because of any single government - 4 years between GEs is far too short a timeframe. a succession of governments that work against a business might make them think about it. even so, I still think policies should be made based on what is best for the country, not who moans the loudest.
261 I’m just hoping I got the right spelling of gorilla…..
247 - Agreed.
I’d begin with the assumption that the Dems won’t lose any seats - I think NJ and LA are safe.
VA, NM, CO, and NH are probably given for the Dems
AK, NC, OR, MN are all within reach - not certain, but leaning
GA, TX, NE are a stretch but feasible (latter will go Dem if Obama wins CD02)
KY, ME, MS (special) would be only in landslide territory
Remembering that Lieberman and Sanders don’t count as Democrats on Betfair, what’s the value bet? I think
60 or more (inc the 2 Independents) would be value at about 4/1,
58-59 (inc the 2 Independents) at about evens, and
57 or fewer(inc the 2 Independents) about 1/2
Mike,
I am really impressed at your angles. Another 1 day Really great site. Never fails to interest and entertain!
FWIW- although I am pleased that Gordon has found some sense of purpose, and is being rightly recognised for his global ambitions, it doesn’t detract from tte fact that he is an electoral liability. Agree with you on this one.
242/247-Oh well then I must have been dreaming of a McCain resurrection-2012 seems such a long way away.
265
But many more are leaving not just on cost reasons but because they hate where Labour has done to this country. More than 2 million Britons have emigrated since Labour came to power. In 2006 alone 400,000 left.
It comes to something when people would rather leave the country than put up with the crap being dumped on them by their own government.
226 ‘Demure’, Jack?
Seriously, I’m looking at the polls etc as they stand now. It would take a significant movement to shift the spectrum across far enough to bring in the likes of Mississippi and Louisiana.
It’s possible, I agree. But then it’s possible for them to go the other way too.
From the Daily Mash, don’t read this if your from the North, it is highly offensive.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/northerners-terrified-of-toilet-paper%2c-says-study-200810151326/
266
you are in central Africa - just go and ask one.
270 Funny how the right have moved from moaning about too much immigration to moaning about too much emigration!
272, not offensive, just not amusing. The Harry & Paul take on Northerners (being kept as pets) is much wittier.
266
252 - I must admit I haven’t, Witan. I’m useless in temperatures over 38 Celsius, so my condemnation is based solely on the things people tell me to convince me to go there.
My only complaint against the US (a country I love) is the city planning - it feels too new and too planned, there are no historic nooks and crannies as you would find in Oxford or London or York. I would also go mad needing a car to get everywhere, which I’ve experienced both in the US and having lived in Milton Keynes. From what I’m told, Dubai is heaven if you like clean, planned, new cities and driving everywhere!
Combined with the heat, restrictions on all my favourite vices, and living away from the cultural and gastric delights of London, it would be my personal idea of hell!
Am I being too judgemental in advance? Do you think I’d change my mind if I visited? Happy to concede I can be a little hasty to judgement…!
257 I think a lot would depend on whether there is a big shift in peoples’ attitudes towards private enterprise, similar to that which took place in the 1940s.
Obama well ahead of polling in early voting, says SUSA:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html
Where’s that property ramper burbachris? Accorindg to the FT Brown is wrong to say there is no oversupply of housing (which is obvious, but it’s a nice link).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05afe2ca-9a51-11dd-bfe2-000077b07658.html
278 Given the events of the past month some shift in public attitude is inevitable IMO. The only question is how big the shift is.
274
Why funny? Both are linked. If you appreciate the culture you are living in then you are naturally concerned when it is being damaged by the policies of the government driving out one section of the community and allowing in another.
It is not just about numbers. It is also about being comfortable in your own space. Many people no longer are because the government has ridden roughshod over their ideals and aspirations.
This is not about cultural relativism of one culture being ‘better’ than another. Simply that people are naturally comfortable with the familiar and things change unecessarily and usually for the worse, they make a decision as to whether or not they wish to continue living in that situation.
Having spent my life travelling the world I can assure you there are a number of counries that now feel more ‘English’ in their cultural aspirations than England.
Will be interested to see how harman does today? Was her good performance last time a fluke? Or will her position as leader in waiting be enhanced.
Did anyone hear dimwit Balls on today this morning? I know labour aren’t listening - but when someone asks you a question about 14 year old testing and you repeatedly reply by saying “With 11 year olds” I think campbell and mady need to get to work on the second tier ministers now brown is off the hook. Balls and Cooperballs are the worst, repeatedly lying and ignoring question asked.
I think their main problem is that they think they are philosophically right, and people won’t get rid of them even if they are incompetent. Typical dyed in the wool laboutites. Met one of their type at the weekend who accused me of being uneducated because I hate labour, and said that Brown had caused a recession. (apparently it’s still Thatcher’s fault). This really is Labour’s deluded Major years 95-97.
283. Harman’s first performance was good, her second (the last one) was dreadful beyond even what many of us lot thought it would be.
211. No. The whole point of London’s preeminence as a financial centre has been the lightness of regulation. Yes, it does have an enviable advantage in terms of experience, infrastructure etc. It’s not just the rhetoric, already tax policy is not as welcoming as it was, and threats to extend regulation will encourage the most flexible to think about shifting. The difference between the bankers and the idiot guardianistas is that tax and regulation for the former can literally be worth millions. Brown did a good job encouraging people to move to the UK through light touch regulation, now the pressure is on to shift policy.
Henderson announced a move to Ireland for tax purposes. It isnt spurious unlike the idiot Guardianistas.
I understand you can drink in Dubai.
As part of their campaign to turn the place into a media/culture hub, they’ve started a very glossy English language newspaper, for which I occasionally write:
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080527/LIFE/186288430
This paper, the National, is a highly professional outfit (well, apart from my contributions, obviously) staffed mainly by ex Telegraph journos, and other Fleet Street irregulars.
I do not believe they could have tempted several hundred British journalists to come and live in a dry country - no matter what the wages - so yes, I think you can drink.
165:
“I don’t think, as I have said, that Gordon Brown accepts there was anything fundamentally at fault in his policies and economic management, he is telling it like he sees it when he blames it all on US sub prime crisis and commodity/oil prices”
I think you are right in the sense only that he does think that.
Of course he is disastrously wrong. We have sub-prime in the UK just as they do in the US.
People were able to get mortgages by lying about their incomes.
People were able to get mortgages without deposits (or even with negative deposits!).
People were able to get mortgages of historically unprecedented multiples of their incomes. Many of these people had poor or very poor credit ratings.
That is sub-prime. The BBC’s Panorama investigated this in 2003, Vince Cable knew all about it back then, even Michael Howard in 2004.
280. The ’supply shortage’ argument was little more than ramping. The kind of disinformation one always find propagated to try to justify bubbles.
230: incapacity benefit (under various guises) has been around for a very long time. What is different is the extraordinary number of long-term unemployed who have dropped off the unemployment numbers through as they are “incapacitated”.
9. Stuart, I just wished the Conservative Party was an English Nationalist Party - it’s such a pity they value the union so much. I have not yet come across a true English nationalist who believes in maintaining the unity of the UK, have you? Unfortunately the English Democrats Party are a quasi-nationalist party no different to Scottish Labour and believe in an English Parliament within the UK only and not full independence.
I think the spin about the Scottish banks bailout and independence was a political fix the stop the SNP advance, and unfortunately for now it is working. Surely RBS and HBOS will have to be renamed Royal Bank of Britain and Halifax Bank of Britain, now that the state has taken them over.
As a northern English man I was annoyed when Northern Rock got bailed out - they should have been liquidated and the same is true about Bradford & Bingley, however I have since discovered that NR received a £26 billion loan of which £11 billion has already been paid back by repossessing peoples homes and recalling laons!!!! Are the RBS/HBOS bailouts on the same terms?
287 - Yes I think it is easy for the media to tell the Brown a hero story for now, but the asleep at the wheel story will come out later.
On thread - I think the fact the Labour were neck and neck is actually significant, as they promised massive investment in schools and hospitals (which was needed) and people were worried about how they would fund it.
286 Can you also bet, SeanT?
coldstone you are so funny. your type of unreconstruted leftist knee jerk thinking will if will lead to the rest of the country becoming impoverished soon as the bright and ambitious people now leave. back to the 1970’s. See ya!
282. bonkers. the only insght you are producing is into your own little warped world of tribal politics.
putting politics aside completely: Britain is a better place now than it was 10, 20, 50, or 100 years ago. this is an inevitable result of modernisation, successful growth, stability etc.
plenty of people have left - but for individual personal reasons. this is no measure of success or failure
re 277 Morus - you’ve not travelled enough in the US. New York always feels like a very old city - a touch of Manchester and Liverpool with the odd 1930s sky-scraper - and there lots of nooks and crannies. Boston’s similar and San Francisco feels very old.
My favourite US city is Chicago where there’s the lake, some fantastic new building and always a feeling of excitement.
I used to travel to the US every four to five weeks and this is the first US Presidential election where I’ve not been there at all.
282 “Having spent my life travelling the world I can assure you there are a number of counries that now feel more ‘English’ in their cultural aspirations than England.”
That is logically flawed - what you mean is that some places are closer to your view of what English cultural aspirations ought to be than what they actually are.
If the government had not bailed out RBS/HBOS, both these groups would have had to sell off assets - RBS would have sold off Natwest and HBOS would probably have to split up into Halifax Group and Bank of Scotland. Job losses would occur sooner, but at least they would have retained their independence from government.
The bank bailout stinks, but at least some confidence has been restored in the system at least for the short term. This is Labours ERM equivalent disaster and will turn very sour next year.
285 Another difference between bankers and “idiot guardinistas” is that the latter are currently much more popular. And I would be surprised if that situation changed anytime soon.
Thanks Mike for the article. It nails the argument that the Tories lost the election in 97 over the ERM debacle. Let us not hear that one again. Can we have a link in the column to key threads that “nail the untruths” such as this one does. Well done, a landmark for pbc.com.
Instead we have the clear view that voters grew out of love for the Conservatives and the longer it went on the more that developed into a deep desire to get rid of them.
Where are Labour in that curve? How easy is it to fall in love again with someone you fell out with now that the trust has gone? Less trusted than the Tories were on the economy, they have an organisation that is far weaker than the Tories in 97 and have ith some pollsters polled worse than the Tories did. Labour also have 22% of councillors compared to the 21% the Conservatives had in 1995 which fell to 19% in 1996.
Just seen the unemployment figures. Interesting to see male unemployment is rising at twice the rate of female unemployment. This does not bode well.
I’d say bankers have managed to make themselves as unpopular as guardianistas.
Amazing feat.
294
Absolute garbage. As I say, you made a false statement at 213 by denying that many people had been emigrating and the fact is that more than 2 million have left since the authoritarian, mentally crippled scum you support came to power.
This country is in no way better than it was before this bunch of social misfits got into office. And as for your successful growth and stability - where have you been hiding the last few months? The mess we are in now is the fault of all the Labour Epsilon Semi-morons and nothing will improve until they are driven out of power permanently.
294. Yes, looking at emigration is not a measure of success. It is far too complicated - people retiring and moving to warmer climes, people working offshore etc to ascribe to a bad govt. And the economy has been pretty good.
But, to assume that the UK’s position as THE global financial centre (which is effectively what it has become) is unassailable would be foolish. London has hundreds of thousands of Frenchmen thanks to foolish socialist policies in France, and Sarko is undoing some of the worst excesses. We clearly need better regulation of financial markets, but not heavy handed ones, and the issue is whether Gordon “Light touch regulation” is going to morph into Global regulator Gordon, Terror of the markets. His track record recently hasnt been good - eg tax policy.
295. Chicago is the most exciting city in America, architecturally, for sure: and its got a real sassiness. Tons of character. I liked it.
But the climate! OMFG. Makes London look like Malaga. What about those freezing, bone-cutting winds off the lake, at almost any time of the year.
I was there in late April and they had an ice storm: -10 degrees centigrade etc etc. In the day. In late April.
The climate makes it barely habitable, I think.
Santa Fe is ace.
224
“West Virginia 10/1
Montana 16/1
North Dakota 25/1
Georgia 25/1
Arkansas 25/1
Louisiana 33/1″
where are these prices available please?
cheers
240 Not a dry country - when I lived there got a very generous liquor licence (available for non-muslims only, limit of value of alcohol that can be purchased monthly) to be spent in anonymous cash n carry liquor warehouses
Its very hot in summer & humid near the coast - British Club was inland in more acceptable dry heat - but air conditioning everywhere & UK has bloody awful weather & darkness for 5 months of the year as well.
Lots of sporting facilities, beaches, good nightlife & very optimistic outlook. A lot like Singapore in many ways and that’s a successful financial centre as is Hong Kong.
296
Nope what it means is that there are still places in the world which have retained some of the basic decencies which used to help define the English. The sorts of ideals and aspirations that have been destroyed by the left in this country.
302 Only English independence will drive Labour out of power permanently - the Scottish bank bailout is going to become a driving force for English Nationalism - watch this space.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/government-takes-60%25-stake-in-al%11qaeda-200810141322/
Anyone posted this yet
Afternoon all
Re; 304 - Hmm.. I like Vegas but my favourite US city so far is San Diego, not downtown but north by Mission Beach, Pacific Beach and on to La Jolla. Going the other way, Coronado is also well worth a visit.
Fantastic public transportation by US standards as well. September is a great month to go as is June.
Looks like somebody lumped on dems to win Missouri, Virginia, W Virginia and N Dakota at Paddy Power, prices really dropped hard.
295 - That’s true enough - looking forward to spending a bit more time there…!
ON TOPIC - why are the colours in the ICM picture at the top of the thread the wrong matches for each party? Is it deliberate, in an attempt to stop instinctive response on colour of rosette, or a mistake because ICM didn’t care?
I seem to have been a few hours too early this morning, so may I repost post 86 now that the conversation has turned to great cities to visit:
“I know that this is wildly offtopic and not even anything to do with politics, and I know that it’s a public relations stunt, but really:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2008/oct/15/glasgow-scotland
What kind of lunatics put this list together? A good half of the cities on this list aren’t even the top cities in their own country, never mind the world. One of them I wouldn’t stay overnight in unless paid to do so on business.”
304 - I’m a huge fan of Chicago, but actually like the climate - I’m a cold-weather animal at heart…the colder the better.
Very pleasant (hot and dry) in the early summer…
307 Yes I believe an independent Scotland intends to join the arc of prosperity which encompasses Norway, Ireland and …er… Iceland.
305. I was in Singapore recently. I expected to hate it: I really liked it. No crime, great food, sexy Chinese girls, wild architecture - and a sense of upbeat Asian go-ahead-ness. And you are just a coupla hours from Hong Kong or Bangkok - or wild jungle, or beachside tropical idylls.
If I didn’t have daughters and friends in London, I’d live out here in Asia pretty much semi-permanently.
Oh, I’ve just noticed that I do. Heh.
how’s PMQ’s?
294 “Britain is a better place now than it was 10, 20, 50, or 100 years ago. this is an inevitable result of modernisation, successful growth, stability etc.”
Up to a point, this is true, as it is of Europe as a whole. But I think the interesting point is that those aspects of UK society which used to be seen as particular strengths, no longer are. They have been either eroded, or, in some cases, deliberately trashed by Labour. We all have our own list - mine would include: Sense of fair play; one of the best judicial systems in the world; serious radio(*) and TV; independent and serious newspapers; effective government administration; lack of bureaucracy; a general culture of trust; world-class universities; well-preserved, clean countryside; cohesive local communities; pubs; locally-based social activities, often built on a deep cultural tradition (eg fox-hunting).
On the other hand, the things which are better (such as restaurants) are areas which previously were weak.
(*) When the revolution comes, I will be lobbying for whoever wrecked Radio 3 to be the first before the firing squads.
306-Been following your “spat” with others & inclined to agree with your analysis-the country has changed dramatically & not for the better overall.
316 - Not that lively, Hague asking quite skewery questions. Harman not really understanding them. No jokes!
316 honestly? Hague and Harman both pretty poor imo - Hague going too soft and trying to be too clever - scored a good hit aobut Harman’s blog though, harman spluttering and offering nothing but ‘concern’
Harman lieing about debt!
320 hague coming to life in his last question - some hard statistics and ends with Boom and Bust gaggery
322 - That was good.
296. Or he may feel that their country has not become a third world cess pit.
Re: 315 - Happy to agree with you again, Sean. I was in Singapore for Chinese New Year - wonderful occasion. As you say, a vibrant city but, according to Mrs Stodge, one of the few cities where she has felt entirely safe (even with Mr Stodge).
Went to Sentosa but haven’t yet visited Langkawi or Penang. Mrs Stodge likes the look of Krabi, do you know it, have you visited ?
323 yep, Harriet tried to make a closing gag on’man with a plan’ - fell flat
Narrow points win to Hague
Sky leaving before Cable’s question because ‘the PM is away in Brussels’!!
317
I agree Richard and thik that is a fair list of things wrecked by these vandals. The problem is that those things which have improved, whilst welcome, are generally superficial whilst those we have lost are fundamental to the well being of our communities and ultimately our country.
321. Saw that on BBC, a blatent lie. Hague’s last question looked good, and the reply from Harman was rubbish.
326 - She also said that Hague shouldn’t compare the UK economy unfavourably, but Hague was quoting an independent body!
312. WTF is that top ten cities list all about? Antwerp? Warsaw?? Sao Paolo???
My favourite entrant is Mexico City. I’ve been there several times. To call the city a toilet is an insult to sanitary engineering.
I once had to do a spoof Travel Article on Ten Holidays in Hell for Bizarre Magazine. Here’s what I wrote for Mexico City:
Mexico City
Location: Mexico
Population: 25m
Attractions: arguably the most populous city on earth, Mexico City is also famous for its rapid and uplanned urbanisation, the intense use of cars, endless miles of unregulated factories, and the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels. The city also boasts a unique topography - it sits on a sunbaked plateau surrounded by mountains, which means smog and smoke can never escape. This creates a permanent filthy haze that hovers over the entire megalopolis.
Things to Do: enjoy a refreshing shower of shit. As rainclouds pass over the urban areas, they are trapped by that bowl of mountains. Consequently the clouds suck up water from wherever they can - e.g. the vast sewage farms that surround the city. The clouds then backtrack, and release their burden of tainted vapour on the city. This falls as a light brown drizzle - of human excrement. Climatologists actually have a name for it: “fecal rain”. Hotels can usually provide umbrellas.
Quote: “Simply living in Mexico City is equivalent to smoking twenty cigarettes a day”. World Health Organisation report.
326. Doesn’t surprise me, Harman’s jokes are dreadful. Bit rude to ignore Cable, bet he has some interesting questions.
331 - Strangely he didn’t.
OMG! Harman ‘I don’t know what he is talking about re Interest Rates’
Awful clanger and she knew it as soon as she said it
Harriet now after the worst part is looking even more rattled. I think she knows she has been exposed as second rate.
333. Oh dear oh dear oh dear, rubbish from Harman.
333. As I said, it’s going to be fun watching these clowns try to explain the deteriorating economic picture.
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 52%
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/15
Harman floundering on banking regulation! Oh deary me!
hague was very good. He set out the tory position/policy towards pensions and bankrupcies, two policies which the government is almost certain to follow. They are trying to prevent brown claiming to have saved the SMEs and pensions. If brown uses those policies it shows the tories are economically sound. If they dont, well, is there another option? clever stuff IMO
325. Most of Malaysia is a little disappointing, to my taste - it is a seriously autocratic country, and it has the repressive feeling of a Muslim land, without the compensating hospitality and historicity you get in much of the Middle East.
Basically, they can be a miserable bunch, the Malays. And the Indians and the Chinese really resent the apartheid system.
The jungles are impressive, if you like ants.
That said Bintan, a Sumatran tropical island near Singapore is beautiful - if you can afford to stay at the Banyan Tree (one of the top 20 hotels in the world, according to some reports).
But if you want a nice beachy holiday near Singapore its gotta be Thailand (naturally!). The “in place” at the moment for Thailand-loving cognoscenti is Hua Hin - still a charming fishing village, with spectacular national park and mountains right near by.
Recommended.
Poor Harman Star Trek joke…
Harperson just bragging about the ’success’ of Labour setting up the FSA regulatory structure. Crikey, if she thinks the FSA has been an unqualified success, she really has no idea whatsoever.
Based on this performance, the idea of Harman as PM is totally absurd.
It would almost be in the same league as Sarah Palin as President - totally unqualified to do the job.
DUP member called Harman ‘my right honourable friend’, odd!
315 I’ve never been to Singapore, but I’m told it’s an interesting (and very prosperous) city. A friend told me that, for a laugh, it’s worth visiting the Tiger Balm Gardens, where they have an exhibition called the Ten Courts of Hell, showing models of people suffering all sorts of agonies in the Next World, for crimes like spitting on the streets, or not voting for the PJP.
325. Trying to post some advice on Far East travel - but its being moderated. Dunno why. I’ve only insulted all of Malaysia.
Basically my advice is, if you want beaches and mountains and beauty, ignore Malaysia and go straight to Thailand - Hua Hin is highly recommended at the mo.
This past week or two and the moronic reaction of the Labour party has made me decide that God willing, i will now be saving all my cash henceforth with the aim of emigrating from this country. which the Labour party are clearly hell-bent on ruining as soon as possible. I want to go somewhere more optimistic where hope and opportunity really exist.
Like other posters who have travelled to many countries, i have done so too and i recognise the UK is now falling down badly.
Another Labour government will just finish the job. i have relatives who have emigrated in the past 18 months , taking a young family to Australia. The quality of life and opportunities offered to the average person are so much better there. Expect a quick rush for the exits now.
Harperson always makes me think of milk monitors from school and the evil girl from Charlie Brown.
317. few of the things you list have changed measurably for the worse in my lifetime. meanwhile, living standards have changed beyond recognition for most people over time; most people have access to a very good standard of education, healthcare, good jobs, etc. etc. if they take their chances.
in some areas the rest of the world has “caught up” (e.g. our best universities are much better academically than they have ever been, but face much stiffer competition), in others, we have “caught up” with the rest of the world (e.g. we now have some nice restaurants). most of this is to do with a trend of globalisation.
on the same theme, there are things that probably have got worse that you don’t list, one of those is the nature of gang and drug culture, organised crime, this is a negative effect of globalisation.
Harman avoiding questions with garbled sentences. All a bit grim.
297 - francis
I’m sorry, if RBS and/or HBOS had gone bust they would not have had to split or sell off their acquired banks, for the simple reason that doesn’t solve the problem.
Two banks with half as much capital each have *exactly* the same problem as one large bank.
—
OT on the bailout.
It’s worth remembering that we’ve had banking and credit crises before, whether (very mildly) in the early 90s in the UK, or in Sweden, or in the UK in the mid 70s. When we come through them, and almost without exception, credit losses through the cycle turn out to be lower than expected.
Take mortgages in the UK. People worry that the price of homes underpinned by mortgages have halved, and therefore the value of banks assets must have done the same. But this is simply not true. If the value of your house has declined, you still need to pay back your mortgage. Unlike in the US, you cannot simply walk away. Substantial defaults will be driven by unemployment, not merely falling house prices.
If unemployment were to double from here, there would be 1.5m more people without jobs. Now, many of those will be in dual income households, or in “rented” accomadation. But lets assume half of these newly unemployed lead to defaults - so 750,000 defaults across three years.
Bad? Yes.
End of the world, end of the banking system, £50bn bad? No.
When we get to the end of the banking crisis, it will turn out that RBS, Lloyds, and a number of other firms would not have gone bust without the liquidity crisis. (Ironically, this is different to the last sovreign debt crisis for these same banks, all of whom were effectively bust, but the BoE decided to ignore it.)
So, all the doomsters on here that think there is £100bn of losses to the taxpayer. Yawn. You’re wrong. And you’re economically illiterate.
Excellent article on 538.com on early voting :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html
346 Yes, Labour want good people to leave and replace them with immigrants who will vote Labour back into power. Just watch the electoral register include another 2-5 million voters in time for the elect Labour in for a fourth term. Europeans will probably be the major new voters for Labour as the rules will soon be changed to enable them to vote in GEs. Labour for Europe.
346. yes, the best thing is that nearly every young australian is prosperous enough nowadays to afford the flights over here, and has the opportunity to work in bars all round earls court for most of their twenties.
344 I liked Singapore but did find I was bristling against the regulated life - after three days deliberately Jay walked just to prove I could, As SeanT says its clean, beautiful gardens, nice people, efficient and optimistic. Food choice tremendous - Southern Balinese or Northern Balinese, Northern Thai, Bangkok Thai or Thai-Malay for example.
On Malaysia, the big resorts are great - stayed in Borneo, Penang, Langkawi - but much the same, great for a beach holiday, interesting local cultures, but Thailand is more alive and the Thais friendlier.
330. surely a spoof article. i’ve had the misfortune of going to 7 of those, and hope to avoid the other 3.
347. Increasingly, I like countries where there is no or little crime - this obviously rules out Africa, South America, most of North America, several part of Europe - and Britain.
Crime is crap. It’s just boring. Why do we put up with it? I’m f*cking bored of crime, and of living in cold cities where locals and immigrants will try to rob or kill you, given half the chance.
Moreover, you can have exciting and energetic cultures and still have really low crime. Asia manages it - Hong Kong, Bangkok, Singapore, and Tokyo are massive dynamic cities where your chances of being mugged are about zero.
Asia is the future.
352. the emigrants are actually more likely to vote than the immigrants, i suspect.
348
Wrong again. You must be a product of those wonderful universities you talk about.
The education system in Britain is now far worse than it was 30 or 40 years ago. Whilst our very top universities may have manaaged to cling on (but not really improve) most of our tertiary education is little short of a joke. A direct consequnce of making the act of attending an institution nominally called a university more important than actually learning or achieving anything.
And all of the things that RIchard listed have changed dramatically for the worse. The idea that the only bad things that have happend can be blamed on ‘globalisation’ just shows how much in denial you really are.
356. they have plenty of crime, it just isn’t perpetrated on westerners (mostly)
i got the impression that Harman was thinking as she was speaking, hence the terrible stuttering and lack of flow to her answers. Harman was very poor indeed. Hague didn’t go for the jugular, but the last question was very good.
Arb opportunity over at Glenrothes: “Best price percentage: 95.3%, bookies only: 99.5%“
247. Ptp. Can’t say I agree that betting on the presidential elections is dull. Maybe it’s just because I’ve never bet the whole pot before but there are things I like about political betting other than the money and the buzz. Finding out about the runners and riders, the race strategies and tactics doesn’t interest me when it’s horses. When it’s politicians I love it and the game’s still on. Definitely not dull for me!
For those watching the Daily Politics, and irrespective of anyone’s party politics, surely David Willetts is obviously an intelligent and decent man.
Tony McNumpty is equally obviously a rather nasty piece of work.
363. McNulty is a dipstick, arrogant, overbearing and tactless. Every time I’ve seen him on QT the audience turn on him, even if they like labour they can’t stand him.
363, I did accurately refer to him before as an arrogant, pompous arsehead. Harman was little better, half of her questions seemed strangely unconnected to the questions.
OECD says our education system is in freefall.
361. What does this mean? I want free money.
348 “…On the same theme, there are things that probably have got worse that you don’t list, one of those is the nature of gang and drug culture, organised crime…”
Are you kidding me, Ed?!
Did you ever meet the Krays?
And I hear people spoke very nicely of that nice Richardson family in South London. Didn’t dare do otherwise.
Good god Piers Morgan now. How has this dreadful man managed to comeback after trying to smear our soldiers.
“Libor rates for dollar, euro, sterling fall broadly”
“This was the second consecutive session that all London
interbank offered rates (Libor) in the three currncies fell
across the board.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLF14660720081015
Tony McNulty really is an odious character. He’s so belligerent on the Daily Politics. He just talks over other people so that they can’t be heard. Then, when eventually told to shut up and let the other guy speak, he responds to criticism of his government by saying ‘not true’ or something similar. There’s no coherent argument, just the arrogant: ‘I say you’re wrong, therefore you are’.
He’s a poor man’s John Reid - a charmless, bully.
358. you can certainly make a case that the rise in the number of institutions calling themselves “universities” may be devaluing the raw qualification of having a university degree.
however, our best universities have never been better. they have managed to sort out a lot of the cultural elitism and concentrate on good academic results. they are now competing globally with genuinely good unis elsewhere, such as harvard. there is now a global market for the best students and academics. and of course, a lot of research can now be done much better with the benefits of technology there for all to see.
371. He was on this week a few months back, he wound Portillo up so much that he went off like a rocket, blasted McNulty and belittled him. Even Abbott was speechless!
Glenrothes: “Best price percentage: 93.4%, bookies only: 99.5%“
351- JackW- I think the polls are understating Obama’s leads by 3-5%. So even if McCain tightens things a little as I am sure he will before election day, I would adjust this by a further 3-5 in Obama’s favour in actual votes.
If Obama keeps a 6-8% lead coming into election day I will be looking at states like Texas coming into play, and a massive landslide.
362 Thanks JamesF.
Perhaps I should have qualified that by saying that the market has gone a bit flat for the moment. All the value seems to have been sucked out of it.
370 - Gabble, the base rate differentials in those currencies are horrid. The fact is that there shouldn’t be a great amount of difference between base lending rate and any of the Libor rates.
360. Wrong. Tokyo has almost no crime. I lived in Japan for a few months - that’s just a fact. No crime. Ditto Singapore - almost no crime. Hong Kong has very little compared to somewhere like London.
Bangkok you maybe have a slight point - but you can still walk down any street at any time of night in this city, and basically feel perfectly safe - and that goes for women as well as men, and Thais as well as westerners. That’s what I like.
There are murders but you have to be involved in shady drug deals and gambling rackets and suchlike to get involved. Being the saintly figure I am, I am therefore immune from such unsavouriness.
372. I think you should posting under the name of ‘Dr.Pangloss’
Latest IBD/TIPP tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=308878612133126
re 363, 364
Glad my gut feeling on this guy is shared. Surely even Labour supporters can see this guy being on the media does not help their cause.
368. i’m not saying it didn’t exist before - but nowadays the drugs are much more prevalent and more addictive (the invention of crack was a global step change), the stabbings and shootings are noticeable, and the influence of US gangster rap on young children is obvious.
having said that, crime reporting and solving is probably better nowadays with forensics etc. - the figures will never tell the full story when people won’t talk
372
That would account for the massive brain drain from Britain then.
Up until about 20 years ago the top universities in Britain were considered the real elite. Now they have been so undermined by the poor standards of 18 year olds they have to chose from are often not even given time of day by those real elite institutions round the world - notably in the US and the Far East.
375 tyson. Clearly if Ann Selzer is correct we are in the realms of a landslide of epic proportions. If the Independents and swing voters continue to break for Obama and the differential turnout trinity of under 35’s, AA and latinos holds then there’s little that’s off the table.
The overnight debate is McCain’s last obvious gamechanger chance. On the evidence of the previous two I just don’t see it happening.
Angus Reid wins the battle of the pollsters in Canada - another validation of online polling
Piers Morgan saying Brown ‘getting towards’ the status of Churchill.
378 - Singaporeans will tell you that their city is crime-infested. However, my experience of the city matched yours.
382 The figures will never tell the full story, I agree ed.
One anecdotal piece of evidence I can give you from my youth is that casual street crime was generally avoided precisely because you would be in serious dificulty if the victim happened to connected with the Krays.
At least, that’s why I never caused any trouble.
(Well, not much.)
Hey Gabble. Noticed you have not been mentioning the 3% fall on the FTSE this morning. Why is that I wonder after all your postings on the gains over the last day or so?
Being a little selective in our choice of statistics are we?
“Tokyo has almost no crime. I lived in Japan for a few months…”
I lived in Japan for *6 years* — and apart from a Buddhist-fundamentalist, mass-murdering doomsday cult releasing home-brewed nerve gas in a provincial city and on the Tokyo subway, not to mention a few feral teens decapitating their classmates, there was almost no crime.
386, “Man who smeared British soldier praises man who used British soldiers as a political football”.
Oooh, shocker.
Piers Morgan obviously a big supporter of Gordon Brown.
With friends like Piers Morgan, Ed Balls and Tony McNulty it rather supports the traditional view that you can judge a man by his friends and the company he keeps.
389. Richard Tyndall: “Being a little selective in our choice of statistics are we?”
I commented on the FTSE once it had closed.
330. Sean, Antwerp is a fantastic city. The best kept secret in Europe in my opinion. Excellent restaurants, great beer, bustling student nightlife and a very pleasant red-light district (if you like that sort of thing). It smells a bit of sh1t sometimes in the summer but that’s the only downside.
Well if Piers Morgan says so it must be true…
I agree with SeanT. Japan is ultra safe, unless you’re a young woman by yourself - and then, sadly, you’re vulnerable in just about every country.
If you forget something valuable in Japan, you will either have someone chasing after you or if you go back within a reasonable amount of time it will still be there. If it’s in a restaurant or the like they will keep it safe and probably present you with it before you can get inside the door and ask if they have it. A number of people have tested Japanese honesty by leaving expensive but easily transportable items like camera equipment on station platforms, gone to the toilet for 15 minutes and every time found it safe and sound where they’ve left it.
Of course there is still crime, but the chances of being a victim of it are v low - much more so than in Europe, the Americas, Africa, etc.
386. Churchill in about 1934, methinks.
375 Tyson
At about 10/1, Texas may be one of the few remaining bits of value around.
If you are happy with something a bit less exotic, Boyle Sports go 4/6 Democrats for Missouri. They seem to have been a bit slow to react to the latest polls from the area which put Obama at between 1 and 8 points ahead.
Perhaps then you could take a break from your “soldiering for truth” and leave us alone until after the FTSE has closed, Gabble.
PS: You can’t be a “soldier for truth” — Jesus H. Christ, do you want to change your name to ‘Hubris’ while you’re at it?! — if you keep on insisting that ID cards aren’t intended to generate an audit trail.
I should also point out that even for the locals, Japan is still safer than most European, American, African, etc countries are for their locals.
378/390: If seant had said almost no _street_ crime he’d be a lot closer to the mark. Plenty of white collar crime, a fair bit of burglary and no shortage of bizarre media-friendly murders.
397. My favourite story of Japanese non-crime was when I first lived in Kyoto with my mate (who’d been there for years, teaching at the university)
We went to Gion - the famous red light district with the geishas - for some beers (couldn’t afford geishas); it was a warm summer evening. As we wandered the backstreets I saw an open top car parked, with the roof down. On the backseat was an expensive CD player with a load of CDs. Just sitting on the back seat of a roofless car, in the redlight district.
I said to my mate - that guy is stupid, that stuff will get nicked in five minutes, you only have to reach in and take it.
He laughed and said “this is Japan”.
A few days later we went back down the same street. The car was still parked in the very same spot, with the roof down - it obviously hadn’t been moved, the driver hadn’t returned. And the expensive CD player and the CDs were still sitting on the back seat.
I remember Morgan gushing about Cameron a couple of years back, when Blair was still PM, as ‘the real deal’. Ever since his mate Gordon became PM, Cameron has somehow regressed to being a lightweight in Morgan’s eyes - this despite him having had an excellent year and Brown exhibiting the Midas Touch in reverse as PM.
I think that tells you all you need to know about the judgment and consistency of this ego-maniac when it comes to our ‘Churchillian’ PM.
Actually it never ceases to amaze me how quickly the terrorist atrocities of Japan’s Aum Shinrikyo cult have been forgotten in the West.
Given that the Japanese authorities succeeded in crushing the cult WITHOUT introducing restrictions on civil liberties, it might be in the best interests of the NeoConservatives that we *do* forget.
Piers was saying that ‘Gordon is being proclaimed a genius throughout the world’. That Krugman chap, who praised Brown just as as a means to slag off Henry Paulson, has a lot to answer for.
PMQs abit dull.
William was not exciting but for once I agree with Robinson, his hands were tied.
Harman was trusted so little, she had to read everything.
This suggests they are scared of what she might say. Because she is an idiot or because they know they are vulnerable?
One thing is for sure. They are going try to spend their way out of it.
McNulty is a charmless oaf.
Morgan acts like a twit. He doesn’t understand banking instruments so he decides to pretend they don’t exist.
I think it was lucky for Cameron that he missed this one.
Like Hague, he would have had to lay off abit.
Gordon would no doubt have ‘won’ - further evidence of his ‘greatness’.
We will have to see what the nation feels like in a week.
Ed - so the country is better than it was. Let me take issue with every one of your points.
Most people have access to a very good standard of education - when I went to University (late 80s), tuition fees were paid by the government, most people were entitled to a government grant, we received housing benefit to assist with housing costs. My niece has just left university woth a £20,000 debt, about the average for an education. How is this better?
Healthcare. Two of my children were born in Solihull. The third was born in Birmingham, because at some point between 1999 and 2001 the government closed the special care maternity unit at Solihull hospital. How is this better?
Good jobs. I had the option at various points of my education (1) to leave school at 16 and do an engineering apprenticeship with a real company (2) to go and work in a thriving City post A levels or (3) go and work as a graduate management trainee in any number of blue chip retail / engineering / banking / consulting companies post qualification. None of these opportunites will be available to my children. How is this better?
Gang, drug culture and organised crime is not a result of globalisation. The gangs who run the city where I live are not new immigrants, they have lived here for as long as I have. Handsworth and Lozells have got worse not becuae of globalisation, but becuase under this government drug dealing and gun crime is hidden away. If the government addressed the issue properly they would not have enough prison places, far easier to let things take their natural course; a dead drug dealer doesn’t need a prison cell. How is this better?
No things are not better. They are worse in every way. Unless you are an unemployed, drug dealing, gun toting, criminal immigrant. Then things are far better. And you will continue to vote Labour.
Gabble, is this the low of the day for FTSE so far ?
346 That’s a common theme.
My veg man said the same this morning - Australia. His brother’s gone out already.
‘We don’t make anything any more. There are no proper jobs. It worries me there will be nothing for my kids..etc..’
Unfortunately I am a patriot and can’t bare the thought of abandoning the old girl.
407
Yeah! when Cameron becomes PM he’ll take drug dealing off the streets and put it where belongs, inside NO10!
No one mentioned Willets, I can see why, he might as well not have been there. McNulty walked all over him, pathetic!
FTSE down 4%
406: ‘I think it was lucky for Cameron that he missed this one.’
Yes. It was a no-win situation for Cameron but we still wouldn’t have been spared the grisly spectacle of Gordon jutting his chin like a Roman Emperor, so a relief for Dave and everyone else. Actually, Cameron has been lucky with his absences from PMQs. The only time he took a hit from Blair was with the Dunfermline election-leaflet episode and Cameron was off on paternity leave after that, so Blair was unable to build up any momentum against him.
Appears to have turned into BBC’s Have Your Say on here today.
410. McNulty, as usual, looked like an arrogant buffoon.
410 Coldstone - don’t understand the smear. Has Cameron been convicted for drug offences?
407.”Most people have access to a very good standard of education - when I went to University (late 80s), tuition fees were paid by the government, most people were entitled to a government grant, we received housing benefit to assist with housing costs. My niece has just left university woth a £20,000 debt, about the average for an education. How is this better?”
I always remember Tommy Sheriden of the SSP standing up in Holyrood and thanking Maggie Thatcher for a least delivering free further education. One of those sublime moments in politics.
coldcojones is getting desperate today falling back on the old drugs libel. Lucky for pb.com that Dave is not the suing sort.
415. Cameron has admitted taking drugs.
409 It depends what your into. Australia has little appeal apart from the climate and the Labour government
!
It’s just a bit daft to say that there are more proper jobs out there. There are probably more jobs provided by a handful of FTSE companies than in the whole of Oz.
415.Ignore him, he tries this kind of smearing when ever he gets rattled about certain Tory politicians.
418 - When has he ever admitted or denied it?
372. The best universities are struggling to compete. The absolute money power of the Americans is a relatively new phenomenon. There has been a total collapse in funding per student in the past 30 years as every government since Mrs T has sought to make every pound cover more students.
In the hard sciences, Britain is definitely doing badly, ditto social sciences. Less so in the humanities, but even so. The best graduate students in the world go to US universities. The overwhelming majority of the best profs go to US universities.
The best UK universities remain good, even great, but they face lots of problems. These would be ameliorated by allowing proper fees.
415
Convicted no! but Cameron has never actually denied taking drugs, only as an MP, lawmakers shouldn’t be lawbreakers.
http://www.channel4.com/news/article.jsp?id=111860
418. Moderation alert…
Comparing Brown to Churhchill is surreal.
Back to Canada. Perhaps either Jack Peterson or Paul Maggs could respond to this. I commented a few threads ago about the extreme volatility of Canadian politics, particularly at provincial level, with dominant parties dying out in a couple of rounds of elections, and other parties coming from nowhere to win elections.
Looking at Canadian electoral history, it seems to be a constant, that parties that dominate a particular province for a generation or two can suddenly get wiped out very quickly, once the politicians who led them die or retire.
eg British Columbia was run by Social Credit (with one short break) from 1952 to 1991, yet they crashed and burned in the election of 1991, and disappeared after that. The British Columbia Liberal Party (which had been dormant from the Fifties to the Nineties) suddenly emerged on the scene, and won a landslide victory in 2001.
Alberta was run by Social Credit from 1936 to 1971, who then lost to the Conservatives and then were rapidly reduced to a fringe party. Ditto Union National in Quebec, dominant from 1944 to 1976, and then disappearing rapidly.
Is it because provincial parties are, in a sense, flags of convenience for charismatic politicians, and once the charismatic politicans go, there’s no real social base for the party?
410: ‘Yeah! when Cameron becomes PM he’ll take drug dealing off the streets and put it where belongs, inside NO10!’
Strange how Labour supporters seem a lot more tetchy than I’d thought they would be at the moment - what with Gordon’s saving the human race and everything. Is the water turning a bit chilly?
#370 LIBOR:
3-month dollar libor: 4.55 vs 4.64 (Base rate 1.5)
3-month sterling libor: 6.21 vs 6.248 (Base rate 4.5)
Slight improvement - long way to go still.
I think a point made by posters above is true - people confuse the credit crunch with the recession.
By blaming the recession on the credit crunch and then blaming that on the US, Labour hope to pass the buck.
That might work in a febrile atmosphere where news analysis is done in shorthand.
But I just don’t see how they will get away with it when even at the height of the crisis, there are voices in the press attaching Brown to the boom.
But I would be happier to see the Tories start taking the assumptions apart soon.
Backing the principle of the bail out is thing. But perhaps the question about why is £2000 per head in the US and £16,000 over here might be a good start.
I reckon another rough day on Wall Street. We could well go back through 9000.
Re: McNulty
Did not see him but yes, he is an absolute arse. Arrogant, bullying buffoon.
FTSE down 5%
427 Can’t tell how bad that is - what was the difference between Libor & Base rates before the crisis started (2006?)?
421.
“Cameron DID smoke cannabis”
“The future Tory leader - who until now has refused to say if he took drugs - was caught after another pupil informed on him. Cameron, who at the time was just 15, was hauled in by the headmaster, who forced him to admit he had smoked cannabis.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-435393/Exclusive-Cameron-DID-smoke-cannabis.html
ILO measurements
Unemployment in June 1997 = 2.06m
Unemployment today = 1.8m
Within a few months it will be worse than what Labour inherited. Another key figure that will resonate with the public. Afterall Brown said he inherited an economic mess!
To add to the fact that inflation is already worse and that the FTSE is hovering at the same level with no growth since 1997.
And the chorus girls go “things can only get better….”
418 That’s not the point, even if it is true (which I don’t know). Coldstone inferred that Cameron was involved in drug dealing
Coldstone - “Yeah! when Cameron becomes PM he’ll take drug dealing off the streets and put it where belongs, inside NO10!”.
This isn’t a smear about taking drugs, surely? It reads to me that Cameron is a drug dealer.
Much as I hate Brown, I wouldn’t dream of making unsubstantiated allegations against the mentally ill, bogie eating, bullying Scottish retard.
402. I confess I haven’t been back to Japan for years - but friends of mine, who have, confirm the streets still feel absolutely safe of crime. And that is the kind of crime most people fear: rape, robbery, shooting, stabbing, mugging, random violence.
There is fraud, of course - but who is really “afraid” of fraud?
The only burglaries I remember are Japanese men stealing gaijin girls’ smalls.
With you on the murders. Japan does have some very odd murders; odder than most. Kinky sex crimes etc.
But I’d bet folding money the overall murder rate is still notably lower than in the West.
432 How shocking!
407
Last Modified: 11 Feb 2007
By: Channel 4 News
The Conservative Party has confirmed that leader David Cameron was disciplined for smoking cannabis as a fifteen year old at Eton.
The admission comes in the wake of a report in this morning’s ‘Mail on Sunday’. The paper says that Eton College called the police in after suspicions that a number of pupils had been involved with the drug.
As a result the teenage Cameron was confined to the school grounds - or ‘gated’ - for two weeks.
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “This happened almost 25 years ago and David has always maintained that politicians have a right to a private life before they come into politics.”
During his successful bid to become party leader in 2005 Cameron was repeatedly asked about his drug taking past. He refused to be drawn, neither confirming or denying reports.
But in a Channel 4 News interview towards the end of the leadership campaign, he finally denied taking drugs as an MP.
In an exchange with presenter Alex Thomson on 21 October 2005, Cameron said: “I’ve always said law makers can’t be law breakers. All I’ve said about my past though is what’s private in the past should remain private.”
Thomson asked him: “If I asked you if you snorted cocaine as an MP you’d therefore say no, wouldn’t you?” to which Cameron replied: “That’s right, but please, I think we’ve dealt with this”
The revelation about Cameron’s school day cannabis use is contained in a book entitled Cameron: The Rise Of The New Conservative, being serialised in the Mail on Sunday.
According to authors Francis Elliott and James Hanning, seven boys were expelled from Eton in 1982 after staff discovered that pupils were smoking and dealing in cannabis.
Cameron was hauled in to see headmaster Eric Anderson after another pupil named him, and was made to confess to smoking the drug.
The rot set in early of course.
Personnaly I don’t give a toss, I just find it absurd that ‘Albion till I snuff it’ should make a big issue about drug taking, yet give support to a party (other politicians in other parties also) who’ve not exactly been, ‘model citizens’ on this issue themselves.
Alan Duncan in his book ‘Saturn’s Children’ had a whole chapter on the ‘Liberalisation of Drugs’ which was removed from the paperback version because it caused a bit of a furore: hypocrite!
418 - I don’t understand the drug smears. Who cares? Does it really matter? Most people under 40 have tried drugs of some kind or another. I have, and most of my contemporaries have - we’ve all lived to tell the tale, and most can’t be bothered with them now, alcohol excepted. The follies of youth.
The subject gets the Daily Mail brigade foaming at the mouth, but if they examined their lifestyles, and looked at their own booze, sleeping pill and tranquilizer consumption, they’d realise how hypocritical they are!
I’m more concerned with politicians hosing billions of pounds of taxpayers money down the sh£tter.
425: ‘Comparing Brown to Churhchill is surreal.’
I think the media is having a bit of a funny fortnight with all of this - Morgan’s ‘analysis’ being, I would hope, the high watermark of the silliness. Not sure it’ll do Brown any good in the end. This hyperbole by some of his admirers is starting to turn him into a figure of fun.
432. Has Gordon Brown ever denied he is gay or indulged in homosexual activity?
It is as broad as long!
437 - Where’s your link to the drug dealing allegations? Methinks you have embellished the truth. Your beloved leader will son discover (as his predecessor did) that lies will eventually out.
434. I’m afraid Coldstone is rapidly bringing his credibility levels down to those of Gabble. He talks about how appalling it is when people discuss the mental health of Gordon Brown, then accuses David Cameron of being a drug dealer!
432 - Even that article has no statement from Cameron either confirming or denying it.
440 - With a face and figure like his I am amazed he has ever been involed in sexual activity of any kind.
407
Duncan’s remedy is of course still on his website, he doesn’t want drug dealing criminals to got to prison Albion: do you.
There is no reason to suppose that the number of consumers would increase if dangerous drugs were legalised. A sensible legalisation would retain strict official control over the distribution and quality of drugs, and perhaps include the establishment of a register of users of hard drugs. Evidence from Holland and the United States, where experiments in the decriminalisation of soft drugs are taking place, suggests consumption tends not to rise but drug-related crime does tend to fall. Almost everybody is sufficiently aware of the dangerous side-effects of narcotic abuse to avoid taking dangerous drugs for precisely that reason. But a minority will always prefer to take the risk, just as smokers continue to consume tobacco despite overwhelming evidence of the damaging effect it has on their health. Although the democratic State has a constant urge, as de Tocqueville forecast, to act as an ‘immense, protective power which is alone responsible for securing their enjoyment and watching over their fate’, it is perfectly respectable to believe that people are the best judge of their own interests, even if they choose to consume harmful drugs. Consumption of dangerous drugs might even fall if the thrill of the illicit was removed. ‘Stolen sweets are best,’ as Colly Cibber put it. Those irredeemably addicted to nannying people could still take comfort from the fact that decriminalisation would at least save people from the worst consequences of their addiction. The high price of illegal heroin encourages injection, which is the most economical way to take the drug but also the most hazardous. Injection is not only intrinsically dangerous, but encourages addicts to share needles and so spread disease. Decriminalisation would solve that problem at least.
Don’t engage with Coldstone. Ignore the narcissistic and really rather sad wind-up merchant. Don’t let him hijack the thread.
413 Look at the begining of the Gord’s a hero thread. The lefties were out in force. Why do they run away when they don’t like the topic.
I am genuinely suprised today at the failure of the Labour rebuttal unit to do a Tammy Wynette.
432 - Tsk tsk. All that youthful drug use must have gone to your head, because you neglected to give a rounded picture:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6907040.stm
428 - ‘I think a point made by posters above is true - people confuse the credit crunch with the recession’
Yes, that’s Labours current spin - and it’s easily dismembered with simple and intelligent explanation.
436. Well I think that Paul Dacre does find it genuinely shocking, which has cost Cameron his support, to date.
What is also pretty pathetic is Cameron’s cowardly attempts to draw the sting from the allegations by intimating at his drug past rather than being starightforward and honest about it, as other politicians on all sides have been.
Cameron when asked about his drug use: “I had a normal university experience.”
Idiot!
445? Is this the link to the drug dealer smear?
426 Metacomments regarding the perceived attitude of other posters aren’t very useful.
Where will it end?
Perhaps the Tories obsession with the attitude of Labour posters is indicative of their intrinsic auxiliary perspective on life and lack of self worth.
And so on and so on.
430, 431. Yikes. 5%??
If Wall Street slides likewise, are we back where we started? What will Gordo the Superhero of Galactic Finance do then? Perhaps he will propose we make an enormous toffee, and use it to block the entrance to the Stock Exchange, so people can’t get in and out to sell shares.
435 - You’d be correct:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita
Rate of other violent offences (also on the site) is also pretty low in Japan.
I read that Gordon Brown seized the UK assets, “not of the bank that ran Icesave, but of a wholly unrelated bank, Kaupthing, thereby collapsing it.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4943712.ece
If this is true, it is quite disgraceful.
450 - Idiots Mr Purnell and Mr Denham both?
“Those who declined to comment when contacted by the BBC included Culture Secretary James Purnell and John Denham the Innovation, Universities and Skills Secretary whose spokesman said “we don’t comment on surveys”.”
450. Reccie Drugs in moderation are great - esp if you get it done while <30.
Compared to whisky for breakfast (chatshow whatsisname) or perscription drugs for depression (Superman)- I know what I’d rather a politician was up to.
440 - Didn’t you once (utterly bizarrely) claim you could tell whether people were gay from smell alone? Perhaps you should be dispatched to check it out.
Is this the same Eric Anderson Tony Blair used to talk about?
Also has Dacre ever asked Gordo about his holidays in Cape Cod ? They were more recent than Cameron being at Uni.
The only FTSE figure that really matters is the yearly one: -37%
There are certain subjects that will all ways bring the ‘Blue Harpies’ out in droves, one of them is Dave’s ‘alleged’ drug use.
Although he’s never actually denied it, and of course there is the ‘Eaton Pot scandal’.
Albion is of the opinion, that drug dealers should go to jail, and the present government is deliberately not targeting drug dealers. Yet Libertarians like Duncan are of the opinion it should be decriminalised anyway, and he’s a shadow minister!
431 In times of less stress the ratio is close to 1. When base rates fell by 0.5% last week, 3 month Libor barely changed (3m £ for 7/10/2008 6.27875 vs 6.21 today).
453. It’s not the return of the financial crisis (thankfully), I just checked and Morgan Stanley remains solid, up loads from the low. It remains the canary in the mine. I’d guess its the implications of the economy slowing working their way through.
454. Weird how Jamaica is third but none of the other islands are in the first sixty.
428. This is an excellent point Sally and clearly some outlets are trying to connect the two. For instance, the BBC News Channel just reported on the increase in unemployment under the graphics banner of ‘Global Financial Crisis’.
Retail sales have fallen again in the US. Biggest fall in 3 years.
If they are nowhere near turning the corner, we have a long long way to go.
whoops Eton!!
462 coldstone, you are getting quite boring.
So, coldcojones, you have never denied you are a murder. So you must be one?
That really is nationalised company logic.
465 - I think there are a lot of countries for which there are no figures on that site (indeed I believe the 60 is all the countries for which they have figures).
460 - Dacre should just take a look in the mirror. He looks like he’s a fan of musicals!
I’m sure the staff of The Mail, contains more than iit’s fair share of alcohol and pharmaceutical imbibers.
465 - That can’t be an exhaustive list. Brazil is nowhere to be seen, which cannot be right.
461 So far !
Some of the national polls are still showing McCain pretty close. Are we (and the markets) taking Obama too much for granted? I know one can go through it state by state and it looks fairly safe, but the national vote winner usually ekes out an EV win too. If we assume a 3% rise in McCain’s relative support in each one, due to a better final debate or just general gap-narrowing, it looks quite tight.
346: You’ll like Australia. Very fine Labor government.
426: Serene Labour supporter here.
427: Remind us, what would the gap between bank rate and Libor be in normal times? - 2% IIRC?
Ed,
some (of the many) examples of this world class tertiary education you mentioned:
Reading University physics department - closed
30% of all physics departments at UK universities have either merged or closed.
Hull University Maths department - closed 2005
Durham University department of East Asian studies (a world leader) - closed 2007
Coventry University Chemistry department - closed 2005
University of Exeter Chemistry department - closed
Kings College London Chemistry department where Crick and Watson unravelled DNA - closed
Royal Holloway London Chemistry department - closed
Brunel College London Chemistry department - closed
Aberystwyth Chemistry department - closed
Essex University Chemistry department - closed
Swansea University Chemistry department - closed
Department of Cultural Studies and Sociology at Birmingham University - world famous - closed 2002
Belfast Queens Classics department - closed 2002
471. Oh yeah. Doh.
455. No, it’s sensible. Kaupthing clearly were not going to be able to pay all their debts in the end*. Once the balloon had gone up, no one was going to roll over any debts for them. Their deposit base was far too small. It was a matter of time. And given time, it was highly likely that the depositors money would have ended up outside the reach of the UK government, seizing it was sensible. Albeit using anti-terrorist laws suggest we might not have been properly prepared for the possibility. The rhetoric was also over the top.
* They had managed to lock in a lot of foreign debt until 2009/10. When that came due, the assets that backed the debt would have looked dodgy (economic downturn in the UK, Iceland) and everyone would have refused to roll over the debt. It was a matter of time. They were liquid and a going concern until that debt came up for renewal and then instant illiquidity, followed by insolvency.
470
I’m not a murderer! Well of the English language perhaps!
Don’t knock nationalisation everyone’s doing it now, Dave thinks Gordo should have done it sooner.
475. Nick, what do you think is the biggest economic mistake Labour have made in power?
428 Its become the generic term and there is a danger in that.
What I am not sure about, however is whether its not just shorthand. Some who call it the credit crunch go on to say we have been heading for it for ages, which suggests a deeper understanding of Government culpability and ties in with the deception of ‘no more boom and bust’.
476
Correction on my part of course. The very unfortunate Rosalind Franklin who should have won the nobel prize with Crick and Watson worked at Kings. Her work formed the foundation of their discovery.
O/T - Why is there a red carpet for all the European leaders at Brussels? It isn’t a film premiere…
346 Only recently, fortunately for them.
In any event, they are polls apart in more than just a geographical sense.
Hmm Lloyds UP on the day but HBOS down - what can this mean for the deal ?
Taxpayers : grab the vaseline…
476 - Does having a good tertiary education system mean academic departments should never close?
Don’t get me wrong - I am not seeking to brush aside issues with science education in the UK particularly. But you would expect in a vibrant, competitive market some firms to thrive and others to close. I don’t see why that should be different in the education sector.
475 If Obama is seen as a foregone conclusion there must be a real risk that McCain might sneak through.
Lloyds have no choice. Their recapitalisation depends on them taking the deal on.
What Salmond will make of that I don’t know.
475 Nick Palmer. LIBOR is usually just 0.15% above bank of england base rate.
Intrade now has Obama up above 80 for the first time. On its EV map, Indiana has just turned white. I think that means it’s even money.
Or maybe it’s snowing there.
O/T - Speccie has an interesting graph regarding House Prices!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2308156/the-illustrated-guide-to-the-brown-bust.thtml
476. I think you should also mention the number of new departments that have opened. And anyway what does it matter whether departments open or close?
BBC spinning the huge unemployment figures really have a silver lining - that interest rates will soon be slashed
475. LIBOR should be with 10% of the base rate, so for sterling we would expect it to be no higher than 4.95% and no lower than 4.05% (4.5% base rate). It usually is much, much closer than that of course for most of the time. Eye ball the chart in the following.
http://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/ias/HowExtremeistheCurrentGapbetweenLiborandBaseRate.pdf
So nice to hear so many of you today indulging in stories of how ‘things are getting worse’.
I have an idea for you: Form a political party; hey, you could even name it the ‘Things are Getting Worse Party’. Have meaningless and endless meetings about how things used to be so much better. And write letters to the Daily Mail. Couldn’t you get a nice wholesome TV personality to head your party? A Kilroy or a Clarkson. And then, when you receive no votes in the next election, can you clear off to Gran Canaria and have a right good moan in an expat bar whilst watching Only Fools and Horses? Please.
It is a pity that Dolly Draper’s cronies have infested this thread with all this Cameron was a 15 yr old druggie stuff.
After about the 20th repeat of it, up pops someone in retaliation with cr** about Gordon’s alleged tendencies…..zzzzzz
Can both sets please stop this stuff.
PS today was Harman’s worst PMQs.
#475 Incorrect Nick,
Take Oct 15th 2006 for example:
Base Rate: 4.75%
Overnight Libor: 4.84875
3m Libor: 5.08188
(Rates raised to 5% in Nov, probably some anticipation of that in 3m Libor).
487. Why do Lloyds need the money? Thought they were supposed to have stayed away from the toxic debt?
489
THe BBC support Obama, The party is already being organised…
http://www.order-order.com/
494. She was abysmal.
493:
That particular Draperite isn’t the best I’ve seen.
Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but Nick Robinson’s blog has an interesting and relevant entry -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/10/its_the_real_ec.html
McCain 6s+ on betfair again.
496.”487. Why do Lloyds need the money? Thought they were supposed to have stayed away from the toxic debt?”
That is something I would like to know too. Also is this merger between Lloyds and HBOS taking place or not, and if so, is that the reason?
494. Perhaps you should start a “Things Can Only Get Better” party, then allow in 3m immigrants and lie about it, betray the entire nation over their governance, break the most solemn manifesto promise, ruin many cities with crime and social breakdown, invade a country illegally and kill half a million people, oversee a cataclysmic economic slump resulting in global instability, then squeeze your fat arses onto a blog and gloat about how your lying and ridiculous leader is like Churchill.
Oh sorry, you already did. New Labour.
That last remark was for Wisbech Sands. Obv!
#496, 502 They are going to buy HBOS which is 100% toxic debt!
Seriously they need to raise their Tier 1 capital, if they hadn’t been anywhere near HBOS, then they could have raised it on the open market and kept their existing shareholders happy (like Barclays) imho.
No doubt there will be 1 or 2 pensioners who relied on a divi from their LLoyd shares, which they will now have to forego, possibly for 5 years.
500
Yes I posted about that earlier. I wonder who that MP might be saying that it had hardly been mentioned on the doorstep..
496: ‘Why do Lloyds need the money?’
According to their website they don’t. But are taking it anyway:
http://www.lloydstsb.com/government_intervention.asp#raisingcapital
493 (Wisbech Sands) thanks for the advice.
I will form a political party. One that has meaningful discussions in its cabinet about how to make things better. And write letters to the Times. And get a nice wholesome leader with a personality to head the party. And then, when we win the next election by a landslide, we can send all the scroungers and illegal immigrants back to Europe and have a right good knees up (and a cigarette) in a British pub whilst watching Gordon Brown being dragged out of number 10.
Nah. I’ll just keep my membership of the Conservative Party.
502 - Lloyds were immune until the government announced the merger with HBoS. This dragged Lloyds into the mire. Barclays are the clever ones here, announcing early (1) they do not want Browns money (2) they do not want civil servants on their boards. Hence the boost in their share price over the last few days.
498
Not according to Rosa Prince on Three line whip
“Actually, the tone of the exchanges was rather good - interesting, well-made points by Hague and Cable answered with clarity and reasonable knowledge by Harman”.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2008/10/15/harriet_harman_v_william_hague_proves_a_flop
Another perfectly good reason not to buy the Labourgraph!
508
So what will you do, when Dave doesn’t do any of those things?
Will you do a Jim Davidson and go off and live in Dubai?
511 - She clearly has had her Draper chip implanted!
505. I don’t know how the shareholder profile is made up but there’s no way I’d vote through this merger. No divis, Government interference and a heap of toxic debt. Madness.
Those who oppose global warming should note that Wisbech will be one of the first towns that go under the rising seas.
I’m off to chop down a mahogany tree with a petrol chainsaw.
510 Rosa Prince is a Labour supporter. Always has been since her days on the Mirror and before. She hates the Tories. No surprise that she is spinning for Labour. Enjoy her articles but the agenda is crystal clear.
Last week I was getting a taxi to the airport and asked the driver if he was being affected with the financial crisis and was somewhat surprised when he said that he and other taxis in the area had seen little difference as most of their business came from people on social payments, who had not seen any changes to their income.
510.I definitely think it was crowned the Labourgraph this week after that dalliance with UKIP when Heffer seemed to be in the driving seat.
Coldstone, it is not the Tory way to lie in manifestos and policies. Your lot have the monopoly on this.
Andrew Tyrie speaking in the HoC just now claimed that Gordon Brown uttered the immortal phrase “boom and bust” in the chamber 180 times in the last 10 years !
510 That would be Rosa Prince formerly of the socialist Daily Mirror?
Albion Till I Die - remember to make sure your wholesome leader leaves out the bit about kicking out scroungers and illegal immigrants. Somehow, I don’t feel it’s the image he wants to give.
514 Ill come and join you in my 7.5 litre 4×4
511
I do not belong too any political party, I do not work for one or am I at the beck and call of one. I’m certainly a lefty, but of a peculiar and I think unique brand, me!
As for Mr Draper apart from the fact I think he’s an a***e, I think I pre-date his call to arms, by some considerable time.
p.s.
I do not and never have impugned the motives of any right-wing contributor to this site, I only ever defend myself!
p.p.s.
Your obviously an a**e!!
519.Just goes to show that if Brown says it often enough, it must be true. Now where did he put Prudence when she outlived her usefulness?
Sorry, just released some comments, so numbering might be a little askew…
You think the Bellylarf is bad, (from your point of view) get a load of this from a Canadian newspaper!!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081014.meltdow_brown15/BNStory/International/home
Gordo we’re not worthy!
521 - Personally, I believe scroungers and illegal immigrants are a bad thing. As you disagree with this, can you make the argument that they are good for Britain? As you cannot provide evidence for your “Cameron is a drug dealer” claim, perhaps you can provide evidence for this assertion?
Sadly now the Labourgraph. From Guido.
“Proof that the Daily Labourgraph is no longer the preferred reading of the City comes in this vignette: Will Lewis announced a special guest and in walked Gordon Brown, in his speech of introduction Lewis troweled it on thick how Gordon had saved the banking system….”
http://tinyurl.com/4ytwul
527 - Woohoo. I have now been abused by Roger, Charlie and Coldstone. I am obviously thinking along the right tracks
527. Harsh reaction to a post about Lloyds Bank finances.
488, 494
The problem is that the departments that are being closed are in the very subjects which we need if we are to have a world class tertiary education system. Some of these were literally world leaders - Birmingham, Durham and Kings in their repsective subjects particularly. The loss of so many physics and chemistry departments in favour of degrees in ‘Surfing’ and ‘Footballer’s Wives’ is symptomatic of the way in which this government has pushed ‘access’ over ‘achievement’.
A bit confused by the numbering now. Just who is abusing who?
And just a thought, can the word ‘Draper’ be addedd to the banned list? It is fast becoming the most boring insult bandied around.
533
The famous quote about being savaned by a dead sheep - or in this case a plate of chumps - springs to mind
537 ’savaged’ not ’savaned’
533
I think its pathetic, ATID you’ve obviously deluded yourself that, ‘Liberal Conservative’ Dave is really Nick Griffin in disguise.
Are you sure your in the right party?
536 No let them keep the Draper references going. The more they divert their energy to obsessing about him the better.
Glenrothes arb is still there: “Best price percentage: 94.9%, bookies only: 99.5%“
Coldstone - I will repeat the question. Apparently you went to the same school of debating as Harriet Harperson - if you know you are wrong, answer a different question instead.
“Personally, I believe scroungers and illegal immigrants are a bad thing. As you disagree with this, can you make the argument that they are good for Britain? As you cannot provide evidence for your “Cameron is a drug dealer” claim, perhaps you can provide evidence for this assertion?”
How does saying I should join the BNP answer this question?
“Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?”
And will he continue to be the weakest link for this government despite the No10 media machine with all old hands back on board and helping at the pumps?
Fraser Nelson over at the Coffee House Blog has this on The illustrated guide to the Brown bust.
“The Brown Bust: house prices
This is the first in a short series on the illustrated Brown Bust, we’ll show you graphs looking at the various aspects of the bursting of the Brown Bubble. After failing to control monetary policy – giving the Bank of England an inflation-only remit – the out-of-control money supply led (as it always does) to an asset bubble which has now burst. This graph shows how spectacularly. In little over a year, UK houses have fallen by 14 per cent - more than they did in six years under the Tories. Both lines are rebased to 100, with 100 being the peak of the market and months along the bottom. It’s already the sharpest house price fall in 70 years, and Citi – who produced this graph – estimate we’re not even halfway to the bottom. Their base case is a 30 percent drop. Given how much household debt is secured against plunging house prices, this will have a serious effect on the real economy.”
This thread is in recession.
541. Stuart , any chance you can explain where it is and show how to take advantage, ie what bookies
542
I don’t think scroungers and illegal immigrants are a good thing, people who receive benefits, should be entitled to them, ditto people who live in this country should be here by right and no more.
In fact my wife, is actually waiting to be a witness against a man who was illegally claiming benefits and living with a woman who it turns out is an illegal immigrant.
Right now you, do you support Boris Johnson’s call for an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Do you support Alan Duncan’s call for illegal drugs to be made legal.
FTSE down 6%
543 Will Mike take whatever tough decisions are necessary.
Jonathan
While it’s not Draper this article from last year on Will Lewis’s relationship with Brown, the appointment of Andrew Porter does indicate a change in the Telegraph’s editorial stance.
Will Lewis’s jump to his feet to applaud Gordon Brown’s 2007 Conference Speech was much remarked on at the time.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_/ai_n21037570
476. Richard Tyndall, you are not seeing the big picture. we have absolutely world class universities (as we always did) and their standards are going up and up, they are modernising and thriving, attracting their fair share of students from abroad. they are also facing stiff competition financially and academically from US unis that are also getting better and better.
if you want to cite examples of very specific departments closing as symptoms of some sort of malaise, you can’t simultaneously say that the profusion of new universities opening is a bad thing. the truth is that there are a lot more university places than there were 20 years ago, not less. a lot more people can go if they want. that isn’t always universally a good thing, of course.
546 Where’s Gabble when you need him ?
547 - Tough on Coldstone, tough on the causes of Coldstone. But new thread needed.
McBean to nationalise the thread!
545 I believe that illegal immigrants should not have an amnesty and that all drugs should be illegal. The fact I disagree with certain Conservative policies is, in my eyes, a good thing. Luckily you can still be a member of some political parties and have a different opinion to others in that party. No doubt you have a different view.
BETTING QUESTION: What’s the latest odds on Palin to win - can’t access at work? They’ve come in I think no? I’ve put down a speculative five hundred
545. You didn’t answer his question again, beginning to think there’s a reason now.
“Cameron DID smoke cannabis”
So f***in’ what?
TELL US ABOUT THE FTSE, GABBLE, YOU SOLDIER OF TRUTH, YOU! THE FTSE, GABBLE, THE FTSE!
554 elephantman - To win as VP in 2008, or something more speculative?
FTSE tanking, anyone seen Gabble?
555
I don’t think Cameron dealt in drugs, I do think there is evidence, he never actually denied it, he’s taken them!
Now answer mine.
559. Sorry, as you appear to delay several posts while constantly asking different questions I’ve decided to do the same. whats the capital of finland?
548.Well I am not banking on Gordon Brown taking any tough decisions necessary, especially if they are going to be in conflict with his short term personal ambitions. That is one of the main reason’s we are in this current mess!
Back in 2003/4 it might have helped this Labour government if they had in place a decent economist with a view to the longer term health and prosperity of the Treasury books, rather than a an overly ambitious politician. Brown was that Labour spiv who so desperately wanted to get into No10, he gambled away a golden economic inheritance on the chance of a short term political bonus.
553
Thank you agree absolutely!
If you honestly think that any political party when in power is going to remove all illegal immigrants, or stop drug dealing, then your in for one hell of a disappointment.
557 - Palin to replace McCain and win presidency
“I don’t think Cameron dealt in drugs”
Then why did you allege, however jokingly, that he did?
(Bill Clinton took drugs and he won 2 terms, btw.)
560
I’m not surprised you don’t know cuddles, you poor ‘ol thing no geography teacher either!
565. George W Bush = ditto.
564
Badly worded!
565. It’s Helsinki, just following your lead coldstone, make a randomn claim then ignore the clamour for any evidence followed by sarcasm, ignorance and constantly asking other questions that have little to do with the subject.
557 - Can’t see any change on Betfair. Small amounts available at 470, 460, 450.
549
However much you might wish it to be so and however much you might repeat it, you are simply wrong abaout universities. They are being dragged down by the atrocious standards of secondary education and the chronic underfunding as well as by the manic preoccupation of this administration thath everyone who wants to go to university should be able to do so irrespective of ability.
On top of this the drive towards paying students has meant that research work has been very badly affected in many of the best institutions and that as a result we have a massive brain drain away from the UK to seats of learning in the US and the Far East.
It used to be exactly as you say - you went to university (as a rule) based on ability. Now the secondary education system is so poor and the pressure from central government to be ‘inclusive’ is so severe that they have had to drop that criteria and instead give over the first year of many courses to teaching students what they should have known before they ever went for an interview. Adding extra years is not an option since students avoid courses of more than 3 years in many subjects because of cost. So wheras in somewhere like norway your university course is 4 or 5 years, in many cases in the UK it is now only effectively 2 years.
Having trained Geology graduates from various European universities over the last 15 years I can safely say that anyone graduating from a British university would be well down my list of candidates for a job - and that is in spite of the occasional language barriers with some European students.
All your pie in the sky hoping and pleading is skewered by the simple fact that the calibre of student we generally turn out from a British university these days is far below that of either our European neighbours or the US and Far East.
***DOCUMENTARY INVITATION FOR BANKERS***
Given there’s a lot of posting on this website, I can only assume substitution between i-banks and this website.
If there are any i-bankers on this website, if you would like to join a Channel 4 documentary while out of work, please let us know.
The story is just that a group of bankers go to Iceland, work for the local economy, turn it around, make money and reverse the decline in the krona, and return with a profit in GBP. It will be a year-long project starting Feb 1st.
http://www.bankersgotoicelend.com
When are any polls due?
Helsinki is it! Good God! I’m so glad you’ve told me that, my life has been transformed.
Have you thought of joining a pub quiz team cuddles you’ll send them to the top of the league.
570 Could you quote any sources/evidence for any of this? The latest world league of Universities in the THES has UK institutions second only to US ones, albeit a bit further behind them than last year.
570. nonsense. good university education in this country used to be for the privileged only. now anyone can get in if they are clever enough, work hard, and are prepared to come out with debts (a backward step i agree). the system is far from perfect, of course, but imagining that it was better when only men went to university, mostly from public schools, and did nothing but rowing and rugger, is a far cry from academic reality.
if other countries are now our equal, good on them for the improvements they have made. certainly there are other countries that put us to shame in terms of cultural work rate and eagerness to learn our language.
As predicted the Dow is tanking.
And still no sign of Gabble.
558. Now we have to bail out the insurance sector. Then media & comms. Then retail. Then…
546
My charts say a low in one week. Probably a lower low…
576.”570. nonsense. good university education in this country used to be for the privileged only.”
How can you peddle this rubbish?
577. Insurance down ? Just a bit..
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/480/0/default.stm
Labour’s epitaph - “Mediocrity for All”
Surely all comment on the FTSE is daft right now. Perhaps bold claims for the FTSE should be banned unless backed up with a wager supporting their claim.
Talk seems even cheaper than usual round here these days.
“but imagining that it was better when only men went to university, mostly from public schools, and did nothing but rowing and rugger, is a far cry from academic reality.”
That was about 90 years ago. I’d say a target (it’s not been reached) of 50% going onto higher education is unwise, as it’s unlikely that 50% will benefit from higher education. Currently, around one in five students drop out without completing a degree, implying that some people are encouraged to go who shouldn’t be there.
563 I’m all for a joke and a laugh(and I am centre-left),but even joking about someone who could provoke World War III being US President crosses the line-ah well,in three weeks she’ll be back in Alaska,with quite a lot of other mooses
579. are you seriously going to argue? the further back in time you look, the more aristocratic the graduates, and the less work got done at university. also, the better we were in a “world league” of universities, mostly because there was less competition.
i am historical timespan here, not political.
583.Can we ban bold claims by politicians as well, or would that leave this Labour government with nothing of substance to say?
584 - I expect she will be back in Alaska in three weeks time. But give it four years…
582 - I may be mistaken, but I get the strong impression that quite a few of the people on here discussing the FTSE’s rises and falls back this up with real money.
Coldstone - no political party will ever fit with one persons beliefs perfectly - Cameron cannot even manage this in his position. Fortunately, my views most closely align with the Tories, and they are the most likely to be tough on crime and immigration out of the major parties. I also believe unemployment benefit should be scrapped (sorry Martin), however would never expect any parties to have this policy. However, again, the Tories come closest to my views.
584 - As I have noted before, the president who came closest to starting World War III was a liberal icon.
588. Ie anyone without a gold plated public sector pension ?
579 In what sense is this rubbish? If anything the comment seems a bit vague to be dismissed out of hand. A more interesting comeback would be to ask when did university stop being the preserve of an elite? Or to ask is Higher Education a privilege or a right?
In a sense in the days of the grant it was more of a de jure right than it is now.
586.Ed, I think that we need to stop jumping into Dr Who’s time machine and erasing any period in history which does not fit in with the facts and claims of the present government.
591 - Good point, well made.
*antifrank looks at his personal pension and cries*
588 Well it would be nice to have evidence of some weight behind some people’s grand claims.
583. no it wasn’t, it was a lot more recent.
as recently as the 80s, there were plenty of oxbridge colleges that were primarily fed from certain public schools. not to mention that they were still rejecting the idea of admitting women.
594. Me too
Damn you Brown.
583. btw I largely agree on the targets.
585 And when I was at Oxford in the late 70s there were still places that were reserved for those from certain public schools.
594 - Yes, luckily I took note of a poster on PB.com (forget who it was - sorry) who warned that HBOS was a strong sell a couple of weeks ago. I had already lost a packet on it, of course - but at least I got something out.
As for the rest of the portfolio… let’s hope there’s a political bet we can make it good with!
600.Did you go to a private school?
582
I make claims largely backed up by results.
588
I sure do back up my FTSE calaims with money.. and my pension fund has been all cash for 2 months…
593. i find it helpful to look at the bigger picture occasionally
601 If you mean me (599) then no. Passed 11+, went to local grammar school which was transformed into a massive comprehensive against consdierable parental opposition. The name of the seceratry of state who pushed it through was … Margaret Thatcher.
B365 have put up EV betting markets for individual States. Some of the more obvious mistakes include:
Indiana 6/5
Nevada 4/9
N Carolina 4/5
Even Sidney would be shocked.
583. Wasn’t the 50% target set by John Major?
596 ed - pre WWII there was often no opportunity for free secondary education in this country by right, many stayed on in primary schools to age 14 and left school unless they got a scholarship to a Grammar (all state aided Grammars had to offer 25% of places to scholarship pupils).
So the proportion of state pupils at Oxbridge was of course lower in absence of a proper national secondary school system. Post War there was a huge increase in state pupils going to Oxbridge once the products of the improved state system, particularly free grammar schools, were of that age. With advent of comprehensives the proportion fell over time. Oxbridge does have an element of public school favouritism, close relationships with certain schools, but the Universities as a whole are looking for talent rather than a certain “class” of student.
British Universities have been falling down the international league tables - part of why the Russell Group want to raise tuition fees so they can compete with US ones.
Ed - improved access to university has only led to 1 thing lower standards. Comprehensive education lets down those students who used to benefit from free access to university.
If you could pass the 11 plus, no matter what you social standing you could take advantage of a grammar school education, and if you were suitably clever then go on to university, which would be provided free of charge. OK a lot of better off people made use of the system, and were more likely to go to university, but I expect that is linked not just to financial poverty, but poverty of ambition.
The massive expansion of HE sector has led to an expansion of people who can afford to pay going. That is, through tuition payments and school fees even academically weak students will get to university, thus undermining the qualification. As more have a degree how do you distinguish between the poor person with a degree who has overachieved and someone who has had it easy. The old school tie networks further disadvantage the poor student more so than when fewer people went to university
£20,000 debt seems about the norm for a degree, and to someone who has had money (or has property) the long term pay off will be more tangible, than to someone who has only had pounds off spending money per week, rather than hundreds.
All this shows how Labours headline grabbing target, and seemingly equal opportunity agenda has actually produced the opposite. WHat can be done?
The reintroduction of a full means tested grant system, whilst giving universities opportunity to charge market rates for degrees but also to provide free tuition where preferable. Also scrap ridiculous 50% target
607. the target is probably a bad idea but wider access is generally good news.
Stock markets tanking now the details of SuperBrowns Global Bailout Plans sink in.
In the US, Brown is as welcome as a fart in a lift
608. 4 in the top 10 isn’t bad, the other 6 are all american.17 in the top 100. Seeing as we’re about an 1/8th of the size of america I think we’re punching above out weight.
574
The THES does not measure how good universities are at teaching students, nor how good their research is.
It only measures how many people pass through their doors (so no surprise that the UK is near the top there) and how many papers they publish. It makes no attempt to produce qualitative assessments alongside the fairly useless quantitative data.
Until the OECD league tables in 2010 the only reliable data that can be used tends to be in specific and rather obscure areas - such as the rankings according to how many alumni are CEOs of major companies (where the UK ranks 5th).
The best academic measure attempting to look at academic research acheivement of universities available at the moment is that produced by the Shanghai Joao Tong University which ranks based on the number, quality and academic impact of research articles published.
In that case only 2 UK universities are in the top 10 (Cambridge at 4 and Oxford at 10) only 5 are in the top 50. Not exactly the glowing soaring success that Ed suggests.
609. “Improved access to university has only led to 1 thing lower standards. Comprehensive education lets down those students who used to benefit from free access to university.”
I don’t buy that at all. I think there’s just more of a hierarchy, people know that a degree from oxford and a degree from loughbrough aren’t equivalent. There’s the same number of people with a good degree from oxford there’s just more with bad degrees from elsewhere as well.
608. some of that is true, but a bit disingenuous to claim that the better universities were anything other than a social club for the sons of aristocrats. the reason we are no longer undisputed leaders is the rise of universities elsewhere in the world, some of which can tempt academics with better money.
the Russell group do indeed want to compete with US ones financially by raising their fees. in other words, their leading academics want to be paid like US academics.
609. partly agree - it is a real shame that all political parties seem to have abandoned the grammar school idea, i’m not 100% sure it is the best approach, but it is a shame that noone is defending the positive aspects.
575
oh really Ed. Do you have any evidence of that in the last - say - 30 years? I went to university in the 1980s. Back then there were still some academic standards that had to be met and in spite of coming from a very working class family I was able to go because back then the main criteria was merit not just being able to count to 20 without using your fingers and toes.
If you stopped spouting your ideological garbage and actually tried to deal with some facts for once then we might start taking you seriously.
FTSE down 7%
Sky: Cheney in hospital with heart problems…
613. i don’t think there really is (or can ever be) a definitive league, but 2 out of the top 10 does not sound too bad to me. certainly in the world class category. it is difficult to compare with the past directly, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that there is more competition for places than there used to be (i.e. significantly more of a bigger domestic population could hope to get to a russell group uni, as well as significantly more foreign students), investment in academic facilities appears to be high (new labs etc. rather than better wine cellars of old), and the workload is significantly higher than it was in the past.
i’m not sure what more you could hope for.
619 Yes the workload is significantly higher than in the past. At At Oxford in the late 70s it was possible to get a good degree without doing much work at all and, despite the modern obsession with binge drinking, I find it very hard to believe that anyone now drinks more than was drunk in those days. Bars commonly opened all day - in the HE establishment in which I now work the bar opens evenings only. That would have been inconceivable in my student days.
620. yep agreed, i have a large catalogue of anecdotal evidence from old boys and professors to back up this theme going back a long way.
nowadays there is also more pressure to get a “good” degree as well, a third/ordinary is no longer a badge of honour.
At last. Some guy on Sky News has explained that todays employment figures have nothing to do with the financial crisis.
596 Ah well, saying that some colleges only admitted men (rather more only admitted women) and were biased in favour of people from public schools is a very different thing from saying that they were the only section of society who went to university.
It’s certainly not been the case for a very long time though that only the children of the rich went to university (that wouldn’t even have been the case in previous centuries).
I would guess that, for the reasons Ted has given, the proportion of students at top universities from working class backgrounds peaked between about 1960 and about 1980.
FTSE down 8%
624. Indeed. Vicious falls across all markets now.
623. absolute nonsense, by any definition of top university, or working class background.
614. To be fair the Shangahi league tables show the elite English universities in a good light compared to the Europeans and Asians and disguises ther total pre-eminence of the Americans - the other 8 of the top 10 are all American as are 37 of the top 50.
http://www.arwu.org/rank2008/ARWU2008_A(EN).htm