Labour still 9% behind even after Gord’s big week
October 18th, 2008
The first full voting intention poll following the bail-out plan and Brown being feted round the world is very disappointing for Labour. The figures are above and show the Tories still in the 40s with Brown’s party nine points adrift.
I was expecting something much closer for the fieldwork took place before Cameron’s big speech when all the focus was on the Prime Minister.
There might be other polls tonight which could be better for Labour.
There is one consolation for Brown: The 9% margin, however, does bring the election result, just into hung parliament territory if these vote shares actually happened in a general election and there was a uniform national swing.
There are other non-voting intention numbers in the poll - these are not adjusted for voting intention and therefore include the views of those who have no or little likelihood of voting. Interesting but no good for forcasting elections - and remember that in 1997 the Tories were ahead on the economy in the final polls before Blair’s landslide.
Polling Update There’s another poll out tonight from ICM for the News of the World and it’s hard from the information that is available to work out quite what it is. Are there voting intention numbers or not - that’s not clear.
One report says: “Gordon Brown’s handling of the financial crisis has failed to improve Labour’s prospects at the next general election, according to a poll..While most believe the Prime Minister has handled the situation well, only 13 per cent said they were more likely to vote Labour as a result, an ICM survey for a newspaper found..Another 22 per cent said they were less likely to vote Labour, while 59 per cent told the pollster that Mr Brown’s response to the financial turbulence would make no difference to how they vote.”
We don’t know whether the poll was past vote weighted to ensure a politicly balanced sample or whether a turnout filter has been used. Until we see the detail then we cannot really make a judgement.
Second polling update: There will not be an Ipsos-MORI poll overnight. Fieldwork for their October monitor is under way this weekend and we should know the results on Wednesday or Thursday.
YouGov, meanwhile, are doing a marginals poll which should be out on Wednesday.
Mike Smithson
UPDATE - BPIX (non-BPC registered)
Con 46
Lab 30
Lib Dem 13
Double Carpet
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Narrative changing possibly if the other polls agree - narrative sould change tack to ‘Gordon cannot break through’
From previous thread:
Be interesting to see what this marginals poll this week comes up with.
If that NOTW piece from tomorrow is anything to go by, it could be bloody
Shoulder-shrugging for both sides really.
I want to see some polls from a few weeks in the future, particularly those taken after the next few PMQs when I suspect Cameron will slap Brown about with the economy.
1 In fact, Blair sleaze, Gordon claiming credit for other people’s ideas, Tories hammering at Labour’s record, recession, fat cats getting bonuses, NR repossessions, immigration shocker - oward and the Tories right all along etc….
Depending how hard the MSM want to go, it could be switched very quickly to hurt Brown….
I am relieved because if you learned your news from BBC radio (which doe to work commitments is just about all I have been able to do for weeks) you’d believe that Labour were big time back in the lead.
The BBC (or at least R4) are completely, utterly and totally blown as an ‘independent’ minded broadcaster after their coverage of the last few weeks political and economic reporting.
And not only has it been biased, but this poll is saying they have been plain wrong as well.
OT but where ia Ave it 08 Watford won 0-3 AWAY from home!
I was interested to see the detail quoted by Dyed in some wool somewhere:
58-37 against taxpayer money bailing out the banks
Frankly, I’m surprised it’s that close. But nevertheless, that single detail will go a long way to explain why Labour hasn’t risen as much as it will have hoped to have done.
I think this shows how the media bubble is only tangentially responsive to the public mood, and that any bias there may be in the media is at best only occasionally influential. This is not what you would have expected given the general mood in the press.
5. That’s it. I’m leaving.
Not really much change in Conservative position (41% i last ComRes, 39% in one before it) seems to bear out consolidation of Labour vote where its already strong and some further Lib Dem to Labour moves.
Disappointing for Labour, despite unity, despite some great media management they aren’t really benefitting. Possibly they’ve regained public attention and might be listened to, and the Immigration announcement, dropping 42 days & secret coroners courts shows someone is actually trying to put together a narrative to help them through the recession but no great “game-changer” yet.
Comres Poll - UK Polling Report swingometer gives:
Tories majority reduced to 2.
7. Well, it’s a very loaded question, and I (like you) would have expected a bigger majority against.
The biggest shock of all is the movement, or lack of it.
This is a “typical” poll in the most untypical week or two for a long while
7, yeah, the reason is that most people fail to realise that if the banking sector goes down we’re all screwed.
Although backed by opposition parties, the government is the one who’ll cop the flak for it (not that they can whinge, it happened with the ERM too).
Recession will wipe out any notion Brown rescued the economy, plus he’s a dislikeable nutcase. Barring any further craziness, I anticipate a slowly extending Tory lead.
11. Given the lead that would give them over Labour, they’d have little difficulty governing with majority. However, it seems this is as good as it gets for Labour, in any case.
I’ve bought Tory again after their recent slide on the seats market. I’m pretty convinced and have been for a very long time that the major issues are in the Tories favour.
Even if the economy does show signs of bottoming out before the 2010 election, people’s memories wills till be fresh.
I Agree , with all the Gordo superman cr*p and the fawning thats been going on, this poll is really bad.
Mike Smithson believes that when DC is in the news.. lets see what happens with later polls….
11. “Reduced?”
They haven’t got a majority at the minute!
7 yes, I think thats a key point - its why bailout 1 failed in the States - the public mood was very much against - its no different here, people are (quite rightly) wondering who bails them out…
OK, the banking system would have failed possibly but the key thing there is that it is not a situation (en masse and NR notwothstanding) that we can really comprehend - its more a Bogeyman being used to justify £500 billion (in many people’s minds)
I do think this is signifigant though perhaps not for very long. The media were never going to spend over two years writing “Brown is Doomed” stories. It will always crave novelty and there was always going to be at least one “Can Brown fight Back?” period even if only as an invented media narritive to sell some copy for a while.
The other aspect is belief. If you are 20% behind then you are f***ed so why bother any more. 9% just provides that thin shafty of light that keeps you door knocking,donating,delivering, breathing.
Personally I don’t think it will last. Repossessions and unemployment are lagging indicators. What we have had so far are the first brown leaves of autumn with months of hard winter ahead.
In the end a sharp recession will do to labour what the early nighties did to the Tories in 1997 even if as then we were comming out of it.
Sounds like the ICM poll for the News of the World will be bad to Labour too.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article48263.ece
18 - Freudian slip?
19 But if say, the question had said “Do you support the use of taxpayer’s money to prevent the breakdown of our financial system” the result would have been different, in all likelihood.
20.. unless Gordo believes the polls and goes for a snap election. From hereon in things are only going to get worse.. and I mean a LOT worse….
23 yes, indeed
24, if he thinks he’s screwed either way, he’ll hold on. If he thinks things may possibly get better (like 1992, that source of fear and hope for all politicians) he’ll hold on.
He’ll only go now if he thinks he can win now but not later.
5 Lets not get back to bias please - done it to death. Robert Fisk quotes Thucydides, a couple of millenia back, on why journalists aren’t great sources of fact
“prose chroniclers,whose authorities cannot be checked, are less interested in telling the truth than in catching the attention of their public”. It was true in 411 BC and still is.
22 - That would have been equally loaded the other way. Though your point about the original question being loaded is a good one.
16 the pain of recession usually gets noticed after the recession is technically over. The 1991/2 recession didn’t start to really annoy people not directly affected until later in ‘92 as we were beginning to pull out of it, there was then a long three year slog as people struggled to see any tangible signs ‘green shoots’ of recovery.
It’s a bit like the 39-45 war, in fact the first part of it was full of fear and anticipation but wihout much deprivation for ordinary people, but the latter half and the years after were just drudgery with rationing and suffering.
2010 will be a very bad year for Labour to hold an election.
28 Oh yes, I accept that.
Going for an election now might make sense, though the more Brown is convinced he can turn it around (even now) the less likely it’ll happen.
If he does hold on for 2010 it’ll be interesting to see how he governs. It could get quite ugly
This is probably Gordon Brown’s strongest period in premiership, he has shined as a strong, responsible figure in this current finanical crisis. Unfortunately for Gordon, he is faced with the best Conservative leader for 30 years.
27. Well said Ted. This constant sniping at the BBC is driving me nuts.
Can anyone explain Anti-Frank’s post (last thread) that the Lib-Dems will be “hugging themselves” at the ComRes 16%? It equals the lowest ComRes poll for over a year.
26
I am not 100% sure. The Govt’s (mainly Gordo’s) dissembling about Govt debt will be truly exposed as time goes on. If you had the choice of losing by 50 seats or 250 seats which would you go for?? Would you hang on with all the sh*t that is about to hit the fan. I think Gordo just might pass the parcel hoping the Tories get blamed for it all. I think there is a 10% chance Gordo might be forced into it by his colleagues.
The government is going to bring forward capital spending set for future years in order to try to reduce the impact of the recession.
This of course only works if the economy picks up enough in 2 years to cover the spending now and it isnt as if it can just be brought on in one sudden stimulus. Things have to be analysed, tendered for and so on and eventually the money goes on to the contractors. It also may simply not be big enough.
Its a bit of a gamble.
31. That was the theory at the height of the “Brown Out” stories. Get rid of Gordon and install someone like Jack Straw as leader for a “kamikaze” election. Labour would lose, but people like Miliband and Purnell wouldn’t be responsible for it and let the Tories take the blame for the economic problems. There’s a big flaw with that argument as I see it. First term governments, unless they make a complete pig’s ear of it like Heath, get the benefit of the doubt. The electorate knows that change takes time and as long as a government appears to be in control they will be given that time.
33, the last year of toing and froing between Labour and the Tories, with the latter enjoying silly leads at times, has served to highlight just how pointless most voters consider the third party to be. With Labour in the mid and even low 20s the Lib Dems couldn’t even challenge them. It’s quite surprising really. Then again, they’re led by a berk.
33. Typo. It should have read “hanging themselves”.
34 - is Brown the only one who can call the election?
39 theoretically HMQ could force an election but it would cause a constitutional crisis.
AFAIK only the PM can ask for dissolution
33. They were at 14% in a poll last week. The LD’s seem to have been hurt the most by the “Gordon Saviour of the World and Capitalism” narrative. In reality I expect them to pick up a lot of disaffected Labour voters.
29. This cheerful fellow reckons we’d be lucky if the slog lasts only 3 years
http://kleinverzet.blogspot.com/2008/10/freaking-doomed.html
The other aspect of this is the (for a Com Res) very low LD score. The traditional argument is that its because we have been squeezed of air time but I can’t switch on a TV without seeing Vince Cable.
Curious and Curiouser.
40 but of course if the rest of Labour (or a goodly portion) want an election they have merely to let Cameron know they would support a vote of no-confidence to force it
Tories narrowest lead with ComRes for 7 months.
IBC/Tipp Tracker (last of the day, no Battleground at weekends) shows -
Obama 47.2% (+1.3) reported as 47 (46 yesterday)
McCain 39.8% (-0.8) reported as 40 (41 yesterday)
http://www.tipponline.com/
Other polls not passed on yet
Hamilton - Florida
Obama 50
McCain 46
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20081017/BLOG8101/810170292?Title=Obama_up_4_points_in_Florida__new_poll_shows
Univ of Wisconsin
Obama 51
McCain 36
http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/10/wisconsin-survey.html
19 Agreed - to use the overdone Fire analogy - it wasn’t that the house was on fire but that there was a huge pan fire that if nothing was done would set the house on fire. Standard Bank/Darling provided the fire blanket, Gordon (the cook) threw it over the fire, everyone said “well done”, had a cold drink, toasted the hero of the moment, now the questions start:
” hang on, why was the pan on fire? who put too much oil in then waltzed off to watch Raith Rovers on TV Alba?”
The kitchen’s ruined and needs re-doing, all the ceilings are covered in soot, the furniture smells of burnt oil. OK the house didn’t burn down but re-decoration and repair are going to cost a fair bit.
45. Do you bet at all?
39/40
HMQ could ask for a dissolution, but if Gordo’s cabinet threatened to resing if he didnt call an election, what would he do?? Its only the PM’s decision, but I doubt its ever really the PM’s alone.
LABOUR are DOOMED - doomed!
I delight in saying that Labour are doomed looking at this poll. I think if the Labour lot think 31% is good with one party state coverage and Brown getting plaudits (For something he didn’t even think up!), it shows Labour are well and truely knackered!
33 - antifrank will explain for himself. If Labour were going to rise in the polls, at whose expense was it going to be? There had been a fair amount of evidence that the Tory vote is pretty solid. The list of possible losers is correspondingly short. With the coverage of the last couple of weeks and the usual flight to parties with governmental experience in troubled times, the Lib Dems should be profoundly relieved not to have seen a sharper rise in Labour support and a sharper fall in their own support.
36 - there’s a thought : will the Brown Out stories start up again? Although that would plunge Labour into a civil war that would take a decade to subside.
40 - thanks. Can’t see him wanting to give up his PMship that easily (see first point).
49, the Cabinet would need surgery to implant a few spines. The only ones who might dare it would be Balls, Harman and maybe Hutton.
If that kind of atmosphere came about though then the resurrection of the Prince of Darkness could seal Brown’s doom.
52. I think the plotters have shot their bolt. Gordon’s conference speech had enough red meat to keep the rank and file happy. I think he’ll hang on to the election. Which I predict will be on Thursday May 6th 2010. The same day as the locals that year. He won’t hang on to the very end, if they are they’ll be annihilated in those locals and there probably wouldn’t be any party left to speak of for the GE campaign.
Today’s tracker movement
Obama avge. -0.66% over six trackers using Gallup LV2, McCain avge. +0.33%.
Half of this comes from the R2000 tracker, a +12 dropped from Tuesday’s polling replaced with a +7 from yesterday. No other trackers reveal their daily results.
Actually there could be rumblings about Brown again but if anything it’ll be Glenrothes that turn that noise up a bit again.
Parties get awful hung up on by elections especially if someone they know gets punted out as an MP. Its a very up close reminder of where they may be.
ICM gives 16 point Tory Lead in tomorrows News of the World
Dead cat bounce
Surge in support for Brown won’t last
By Ian Kirby, Political Editor, 18/10/2008
GORDON Brown is doing a good job handling the current economic crisis - but voters still DON’T want to vote for him in the next election.
An exclusive ICM poll in tomorrow’s News of the World shows the Prime Minister’s recent rise in the opinion polls is merely a “dead cat bounce”.
That famous political phrase means a cat which falls out of a high building may bounce when it hits the floor, but it’s still a dead cat.
And the News of the World poll shows that while Mr Brown may be seen as the best man to tackle a recession, voters still don’t want him to stay on at Number 10 and run the country.
Despite the PM’s credit crunch successes, its actually made people LESS likely to vote for him in election.
Against
And our poll reveals even key traditional groups of labour voters - women, young people, even blue-collar workers - are increasingly turning against him.
When asked about how he is dealing with the global economic crisis, a clear majority say Mr Brown is doing well.
The ICM poll shows 54% say he is doing well, compared to 36% who say he is doing badly.
And when asked who voters trust more, the Tories or Labour, on the economy he wins again.
Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling are backed by 43%, while David Cameron and George Osborne are supported by 35%.
Evaporates
However, when asked if this support translates into more votes for Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister’s “bounce” in the polls evaporates.
ICM asked voters if they would be more likely to vote Labour at the next General Election.
The poll shows 13% say they would be MORE likely to vote Labour.
In theory, such a shift would decimate David Cameron’s current 12 point lead in the polls.
However, 22% of voters say they are now LESS likely to vote Labour - a shift which could give David Cameron a 16 point lead over Labour.
Worrying for Labour, today’s poll shows that working class voters are abandoning Labour as they fear for their jobs.
Almost a third of working class class voters (29%) say they are less likely to vote Labour.. compared to just 16% of upper and middle class voters.
Women
A quarter of women voters have also been put off Labour.
That pattern is replicated across the questions.
Surprisingly, working class voters prefer the Conservatives’ handling of the economic crisis over Labour (44% versus 34%).
The findings also show that young voters, who may not have any significant memories of the last recession in the early 1990s, are more critical of Labour.
Frustrated by higher house prices, more expensive mortgages and the rising cost of living, 40% of 34 to 44 year olds say Brown is doing badly, compared to 30%.
Meanwhile, 62% of 45 to 54-year-olds say he is doing well.
The poll shows the Tories plan of attacking Gordon Brown on his wider record as Prime Minister is hitting home.
Last night Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said: “This weekend Britain’s families are in a state of real anxiety.
Anxiety
“While governments worry about the international banking system - and are right to do so - the concerns of News of The World readers are much closer to home.
“Is my job safe? What’s happened to my pension? Can I keep up the mortgage payments? How am I going to be able to afford the family bills?
“One thing is clear – more of the same means more of the pain. We need real change so that we get through this economic crisis and build the foundations of a much more responsible economy in the future.
“And the only people offering that kind of change are David Cameron and the modern Conservative Party.”
42. Yet another economic illiterate being quoted. The Baltic Dry Index isnt collapsing because shipping has stopped, it’s collapsing because 12,000 on the index was nuts and the collapse reflects the fall in expectations of economic growth. Not to mention the humongous fleet of new ships being built that will be dumped onto a weak market. Shipping rates are already falling and the BDI reflects that.
Yes, things will be bad. How bad is as yet unclear. But can we avoid the obvious nutcases and idiots for quotation. There are enough of them on pb.com itself.
Thats the other aspect of all this. If you are 20% behind who wants to be Labour Leader anyway ? If its 9% and a key block of back benchers think that may be they are aren’t entirely doomed after all…
I have always felt that a 10% deficit is more dangerious for Brown that a 25% one. Also this raises the stakes for Glenrothes. If will feed or completely sink the current “Gordon is Back ” narrative.
I’ve been quetly sitting back all day and avoiding commenting. Its always appeared to me that Labour, whilst clawing back some core vote due to actually doing something socialist are infact going still going no where. This poll confirms that to me. Despite the excellent press Brown has been given, despite dominating the news agenda, despite having Mandy and Dolly and Ali all back spinning for him, Labours overall position remains dire!
Once again I repeat as I have done ad nauseam this week. The Lab P. do not understand where Cameron is coming from. The LDs, the MSM, the BBC and one or two right wing tories also just don’t get it - he is playing the long game and playing to win. and the British public like him. This is a dreadful poll once agin for the LDs while Labour is hanging on to its core vote. Let’s see how many are left by Xmas by which a lot more s*** will have hit the fan.
PPS Could someone please put that idiot Gabble down a toilet!!:))
Well if Brown cannot close the gap to 5 or less points now, I do not see him ever getting there short of some form of divine miracle.
Clegg’s LDs also hit their lowest point with Comres again. Ming’s lowest of 14 was just 2 fewer points than where Clegg is. Maybe Clegg needs to think again about consuming limited media time attacking Cameron?
Gabble, this is the 13th consecutive month that Cameron’s Conservatives have been ahead of Brown’s Labour with Comres.
54. I not so sure about that! What made that Downfall (Housing crisis one) so amusing was the likely way Brown would react to these things! Brown is very much like Hitler! In fact i happened to look up on CH4 News archive and it was all about Brown being a strategic genuis etc - just like Hitler’s genuis was spun!
51. Yes, I think that it is reasonable to now say that Tory support is a solid ~40%, in light of this poll.
A breakdown of who they are would be interesting - have the New Labour Tories (a version of the Reagan Democrats) come home?
57. Holy ****!
If ComRes was disappointing for Super Gordon then ICM is a blast of kryptonite!
63. CH4 News archive - Meant to say the day Brown became PM!
From Mike in an earlier thread:
‘For if Labour’s polling deficit is down into single figures then the commons seat calculators could be showing a hung parliament or even Labour with most seats.’
Latest poll shows Labour’s polling deficit is down into single figures, and yet this is now presented negatively.
60. “despite dominating the news agenda, despite having Mandy and Dolly and Ali all back spinning for him, Labours overall position remains dire!”
I think you should change ‘despite’ to ‘because’ - yesterday’s men ain’t gonna cut it this time!
45. I felt a pang of pity when I read that.
43. Clegg did shift the party to the right on tax cuts just before the financial crisis hit. That would presumably make a lot of left-leaning LDs less satisfied, and hence more likely to shift to Labour under the panic of a week or so ago .
61. Some have had enough and are heading for the exit already
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/18/labour
56 - I had one woman today in Methil who said that she was put off Gordon Brown as as said he was like having ‘a laughing undertaker at your Mother’s funeral’ His joke about another bank going bust when his phone rang has irked some voters. She said peoples job are at risk and he can only make fun of it.
59 Yellow Submarine “I have always felt that a 10% deficit is more dangerous for Brown that a 25% one.”
Good point.
It’s not a good poll for Lab if we consider this week was as good as it can be, but I’m sure Brown will be relieved that the landslide victory for the Tories is not in the cards at this moment. It all depends on how the press will react to this poll, will it be “Lab closes poll gap” or “Tories are still with a 9% lead after a bad week”?
67, I thought the predictors had the 9 point gap showing a narrow Tory majority?
Anyway, the NotW poll is double figures. Blanket media coverage with almost all of it good and they’re still screwed. The government has ceased to be. It is an ex-government.
It’s downhill all the way for Brown now I fancy. Mike has had a good run since buying Labour seats 2 weeks ago. Unless, he wins Glenrothes against the odds, I just can’t see anything driving the price any higher, quite the reverse in fact.
I’ll await this by-election result, but on an SNP win, I’ll be a Labour seats seller. The words candy and baby spring to mind if their current price holds fast until then.
65: I picked up on the extrapolated 16 pt Tory lead in the NoTW analysis earlier, but it’s not a poll is it, just a hypothetical based on the “more likely/less likely” polling. It’s well out of kilter with the general mood.
Unless I am not seeing something the NOTW/ICM poll does not have a voting intention figure
67 - if it was 5 or 6 points it would have more traction
9 points though is the worst single figure one you can be behind in, psychologicially speaking. It seems closer than it actually is
74. 9%nationally will get the Tories a working majority. The seat predictors are bunkum.
The tory lead has been cut by 25% and their notional majority all but gone.
It’s the start of a good fightback by Labour.
76, 77, isn’t that a bit weird? I have to admit I scanned the text and didn’t see it, but assumed it had been lopped off because it was in the headline.
57. Where does the 16 points come from? In the article it says ‘could give a 16 point lead’. Could? That doesn’t suggest a 16 point lead now.
76. Yeah right - the general mood is Gordon’s heading for a landslide - dream on!
75. Did you get some the decent odds on Labour for Glenrothes available recently?
57. Interesting the Older figre saying Brown handles the crisis well: Could this be the BBC effect? That is older types are more likely to watch listen to the BBC? Labour should be very worried about this because now the political truce has ended - Labour cannot rely on the BBC to give such positive output with no desenting voices from opposition policiticians.
80. Priceless!!
By the way -
Mike said in a previous thread that Thatcher started government interference with the BBC over the Falklands…. I rather think that that is not entirely correct - from it’s inception the BBC has been “advised”, “helped” etc by various governments. The Falklands incident was not especially unusual - as the 50 year rule rolls forward we see plenty of incidents were the government sends a rocket to the Beeb about coverage of current events.
It may be just me, but it’s Campbell’s behaviour that was a new departure - hard core threats and bashing, backed by controlling access to government on a much larger scale than before.
Further to my point at 67, this would indeed just about be a hung parliament.
I think we need to take stock here. Just a few weeks ago I and many others on here thought a Tory landslide was a shoe-in. And yet, just when it seemed Brown’s own position was untenable, the man manages to come across as a statesman on the world stage, and concomitantly the Labour deficit closes to 9%.
What must alarm Tories is that if inflation drops 18 months from now, and Brown is back in the limelight as the ‘this is no time for a novice’ option, Labour may close the deficit down to just a few %. They may yet just squeak home. This was unthinkable until just recently.
80. No, Gabble, it’s the end of their fightback.
80. Hush Gabble, this isn’t nearly enough and as the ICM poll shows the long-term prospects for Brown are dreadful. Any resurgence will come shuddering to a complete halt in a couple of weeks in Glenrothes.
77. I presume that ICM have done an actual voting figure as well - NOTW are just holding that until tomorrow, surely?
88, inflation is forecast to fall before then. However, the economy will shrink. “No time for a novice” doesn’t work when the Master delivers boom and bust.
Do you really think the Labour party will improve its rating as jobs are lost, homes repossessed and the economy goes through a recession?
91 it does refer to the current 12% lead - that could of course be the most recent ICM (wich was not NOTW however) or maybe refer to the figures in this poll.
Lib Dem leadership contest on the cards? If Clegg carries on the way he’s going he’ll have them down to single figures by January.
80. Labour are not breaking out of their core vote. 31% is flatlining stuff - The Tories stayed around there for 13 years! A similar fate awaits Labour.
91- That was my assumption too but who knows. Time will tell I guess. Would be odd to do such a poll without a voting intention question, wouldn’t it? (Genuine question - I am no expert!)
92. Unfortunately yes I do.
90. The SNP are going to be the 2nd favourite party of a lot of people!
91. “I presume that ICM have done an actual voting figure as well - NOTW are just holding that until tomorrow, surely?”
I thought that too, however, why would they make that nonsensical 16% extrapolation?
If that’s the best that Brown can do after a week of strutting the world stage then it ain’t gonna get better especially when the man on the Clapham omnibus realises how much he’s been shafted.
88. The economy is hurtling into a deep, dark recession. The only good thing is that it may be that it is deep but short - everything is going much faster in the current crisis
The high street is going off a cliff - just take a look at the desperation sales. A lot of jobs are being lost right now. The money that was being extracted from increasing house prices will not come back. House prices will drop, since the banks will not lend the absurd multiples any more. The shortage of credit will continue, though it will abate to point of a problem, rather than a disaster.
Deflation is generally worse than moderately high (10%) inflation.
99 err why is it nonsensical Gabble??? You nor anyone else can possibly know just yet. Lets wait and see before jumping to conclusions…
88. It’s plainly not his Falklands. Inflation will drop before too long, but, OTOH, unemployment, repossessions, and insolvencies are going to be going up for the next couple of years. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Conservatives achieving a fairly steady 10-15% lead over that period.
What’s worse for Labour is that if/when the Conservatives win the next election, the economy will be starting to improve (although the PSBR will still be horribly high) and the incoming government will get the credit for it.
99. One thought that you might understand ‘nonsensical’ - practice makes perfect.
96: Something that happened once in the past was that ICM did polls for both the Sun Telegraph and NotW on the same day. The Sunday Telegraph got the voting intention and NotW got other questions, which they tried to extrapolate some sort of voting intention indicator from.
Hopefully it’s something like that again, since it would mean another poll in the Sunday Telegraph
99. Make sense as a teaser - get people to buy the paper tomorrow… Get a big headline on the TV etc. if Labour is 16% down again.
97 - when the public gets fed up with a goverment, they have a rather ungracious way of telling you so, no matter if you improve the job situation or inflation.
101. Just because 22% of people say they are less likely to vote Labour, cannot be extrapolated into any change in the headline figure. The 22% could be entirely made up of people who were not going to vote Labour anyway.
If there is a headline figure, it may be 16% tory lead. We’ll just have to wait and see.
97 Richard, that’s Gordon’s hope to. He thinks that a major increase in public spending (after all if ONS force the official figures up way beyond 40% who will notice the odd 5% increase) together with a decrease in interest rates will be enough of a stimulus to re-ignite consumer spending and confidence, so recession will not be very deep, Labour will be seen to be doing something and then its back to where we were.
He really doesn’t think he’s made any mistakes IMHO.
ITN reported the NOTW poll but no voting intention either:
http://itn.co.uk/news/838dfc7962d543fa694d6ae66ec66cff.html
97. I dont think Labour will be doing well at the point when the economy is bad, inflation down. Instead, we’ll see open warfare between the left and right wings of the party - Darling is showing absolutely no imagination in his spending plans, which will make the right happy, but the left unhappy. When the partially nationalised banks turf people out of their homes and refuse to lend and are backed by the government, the left will be furious. I predict that with the renewed infighting and loss of morale amongst activists, Labour will be flirting with 20% again.
The Pollys of the world (eg left wing of Labour) want Brown to throw money at the economy and engage in job creation (a total disaster if it happened) and push the government debt towards 60% of GDP. I just cant see that happening and Polly will be unhappy and demanding Gordon step down.
O/T but interesting. I read in the Guardian that 50% of Austrian voters aged under 30 voted Freedom Party or BZO.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7677491.stm
104 You should know Anthony.
Thought Sunday Telegraph had moved across to BPIX but was that just an affair and they have now returned to their partner?
102. There’s going to be an interesting ideological argument. Labour will be borrowing more to create jobs through increased public spending and the tories will be arguing against it. I don’t think you can assume that the tories’ position will be popular in the country.
109. I suspect the ‘media organisation that shall not be named’ will revert back to their ‘we dont report on opinion polls’.
110. What would be the problem with that. Fuelling inflation? UK debt is comparatively low compared to France, Germany, US after all. Annoying thing with Polly is she regards ‘efficiency’ as a dirty word. If we’ve all got to tighten our belts, then the public sector better do aswell.
I don’t think this is a bad poll for Labour. What was Mike expecting - level pegging? A bit unlikely. Brown’s only been transfered from the morgue to intensive care. Superman was always an international thing.
114
without the champagne either.
113.
People understand that borrowing is just deferred taxation, and when people start to feel the pinch, they become much more aware of public spending and waste. Look how much resentment is felt towards local councils. If a local council announced it was going to sack 2/3rds of its admin staff and employ a dozen more street cleaners and grass cutters, you would have spontaneous outburst of street parties in jubilation.
Government largesse is all around us. When your family is having to tighten its belt, you expect the government to do the same.
Brown’s only been transfered from the morgue to intensive care
You mean Frankensteins monster has been let loose….
Clearly a good period for Brown, although a 9% deficit is a pretty poor return. I’m not shocked though; although Labour are getting their act together imagine that the past 2 weeks had been about:
-massive bail-out of banks not only restricting bonuses, but also restricting ability to reposess unless it can be proven it’s last resort ‘As we bail out the banks, we also take action on hard-working families affected by the current uncertainty’
-42 days being withdrawn before the Lords vote, a magnanimous Jacqui Smith declaring that the support wasn’t there, that the Government had listened, and she hoped that Westminster would not come to regret its actions ’sometimes it is better to lose and do the right thing’
-KS3 SATS abolished as the most tested young people in Europe deserve a more flexible curriculum and freedom to develop their own routes through the education system.
-Closed Coroner’s courts abandoned as we have listened and heard the objections.
Brown has done all the right things, but with the wrong reasons/PR, so I’m unsurprised that the gap remains large.
And the LD value is clearly disappointing, but the policy of the income tax cuts should reap dividends as the credit crunch hits invididuals, there’s certainly no panic Lib Dems where I am.
119, I thought Mrs Smith ranted and raved at not getting her six week visit to the gulag through?
Brown hasn’t done all the right things. He’s still pledged:
£12bn for the Stasi communications monitoring database,
£20bn for ID cards
And what about the £300m to give people free laptops, and £2.5m to give kids free theatre tickets?
Remember, everyone, not agreeing with the £12bn database means you want terrorists to kill everyone.
110 - any war in Labour will certainly have Alister Campbell and Mandy involved - not necessarily left v right, but New Labour (complete with black arts) vs traditional Labour.
Whatever happens between now and the next election, even if Brown pulls it back and wins, I hope both Campbell and Mandelson modus operandi gets totally shredded out and both of them humiliated beyond belief.
104. That makes sense. We’ve not had an ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll since June, so we’re certainly due one.
120. 2.5m to give kids free theatre tickets sounds okay to me. Not sure about the laptops though. Are they really necessary?
That ComRes poll is a disaster for Brown.
1) 10% behind after 3 weeks of the best press he could ever hope for.
2) The most key thing of all is the fact that the Tories have remained on 40+ through all of this, which shows that the Tory vote is perhaps not as soft as widely assumed this time last month.
3) Last but not least - more people saying the last couple of weeks have made people LESS likely to vote Labour than MORE. If you’re Cameron, it’s time to ram home the message: Labour’s lies. Labour’s failures. Labour’s recession.
“PPS Could someone please put that idiot Gabble down a toilet!!:))”
Even then the stench would remain.
113 I imagine that if (as is likely) public borrowing soars, the Conservatives will be arguing that tax reductions make good sense (which they do, particularly in a recession). And I think that argument would appeal to more people than one an argument that we need more people employed by the public sector.
124. Can you remember where Brown was LAST month?
124 There is a soft Conservative vote; Southern, prosperous, socially liberal, that switches between Conservatives and Lib Dems, but it’s only about 2 or 3% of the total.
To return to a point that I made on the previous thread, 40% is pretty ho hum for the Tories, and represents a seepage of support. 31% is pretty ho hum for Labour - it’s hardly as if the scales have fallen from voters’ eyes and are flocking back to them in droves.
The Tories should be happier, but from their perspective they need to get a new line of attack on the Government in place fast.
UPDATE - I have updated the main story with a little bit about the News of the World ICM poll.
124. Agreed, Tory vote is looking extrmely sold at around 40%. As long as they can stay around there, half the job is done. They will only pick up through an election campaign.
Any notion that the British public now want more wasteful public spending is ludicrous. People do now realise the way NuLab have conned them since 1997 - trillions spent on static or declining public services. They’ve had enuf of that rubbish.
Just stuck £20 on Daniel to be eliminated from X Factor tonight. He’ll probably be in bottom 2, and if he is, the other judges apart from Danni will definitely get rid of him!
95. The difference is 31% would garner Labour about 250 seats, versus the Tories’ 165 in 1997..
There is going to be a lot more public spending too. Difficult to square prudence, no more boom and bust, the disappearance of the golden rule. People will just not believe what Gordo is saying, there was a treasury bod on newsnight saying public spending was 37% of GDP. That’s just an unadulterated untruth.
133. I actually think the older demographic might keep him in. I’m banking on Girlband and the rather obnoxious and misfiring Rachel Hylton in the bottom two with Girlband going.
Comres again shows a Lab + Con + LD % vote significantly below the total that is likely to occur in an election - 87% as opposed to 91 or 92%. This isn’t a criticism of the polling - I could well believe that 4 or 5 percentage points for small parties are squeezed during a campaign and go to the 3 main parties.
The Conservatives could thus attain 42% under election conditions, a level at which they appear to make heavy gains (according to Electoral Calculus). So the Comres poll is probably equivalent to a comfortable Conservative win.
re 104 I think Anthony is right - another paper has the other bit of the ICM poll.
The data we have suggests that there has been past vote weighting and they would not normally do that in the absence of voting intention questions.
133 - Half a dozen of them were atrocious tonight. I wonder if the grannies’ vote will see Daniel OK for a few weeks yet.
134 Depending on where the Conservatives finish up. 40%+ on polling day, and the Conservatives are home and dry.
88
Inflation may very well be negative next year as oil, energy and food prices fall.
For people in employment that will be offset by minimal wage rises. For those on benefits, there may in theory be a reduction in benefits.
As unemployment is likely to rise by at least 500,000 - probably 650,000 by Dec 09,, it’s going to be bad news..
By then it is likely the FTSE will be well below 2600 and company final salary pension schemes = :-(.
So if you have index linked savings or pension you will not be a happy bunny…
As for government employees and civil servants,,, no rises at all I imagine..
Meanwhile asset prices of houses and shares will continue to fall. The typical stock market bear market last around 27 months… so end 2010 for any feel good factor there.
For a Government to be re-elected under those circumstances means an Oppsotion led by a totally unelectable leader eg.. a Kinnock..
Clegg of course fills that role admirably.
Having reversed SATS and attempting to reverse immigration , the Government will attempt to reverse other unpopular policies eg Political corretness , HSE etc and by doing so basically ruin their own case about the Conservatives going to do the very thing they are now doing…
SO mixed messages and voter confusion: if not handled well Labour will manage to annoy the left wing of their core vote…
By 2010 I reckon we will see unemployed reaching nearly 3 million, and it is possible the Government will find difficulty finding buyers for its debt without raising interest rates… (After all most buyers with cash are foreign and they have a sterling risk for which they will require compensation).
Many post WW2 baby boomers will have retired by then putting huge pressures on finances and the NHS. They could become vociferous critics if well organised…and it will happen. The party that taps that source of votes will likely command a permanent majority for a decade or more..
123. The MOD are already donating laptops to journalists’ children.
134. Won’t the next boundary review really take a chainsaw to constituencies in core labour areas?
134. And as long as the Tories get somewhere around 42% they will do enough to get a majority. And then they can get to work on destroying Labours electoral bias so that another time they can’t het 250 seats with 31% of the vote.
Diana’s just become favourite at 3/1. My bet on her at 14s a couple of weeks back is starting to look good
143, I think I recall reading here it would cost Labour a few seats (not a huge number, maybe 10-12 or suchlike). Let’s hope it costs Balls his.
160. Easterross, you’ve written a great post, and I do agree with your sentiment.
But the reason potential British workers are refusing low-paid jobs is because state benefits for those with children on housing benefit are extremely generous. Most of these people currently ‘cannot’ work because loss of benefits together with childcare costs mean they would lose far more then they earn! For single mothers the situation is even worse.
It’s an insane system and it was largely created by Gordon Brown. Frank Field is the great sage on this one, who predicted what would happen – the huge explosion in welfare dependency of the last 10 years. Gordon Brown blocked reform, and Frank Field resigned early in the Blair government. Blair should have sacked Gordon Brown, rather than allow Frank Field to resign, and the government abandon it’s promised reforms. Gordon Brown really is the worst thing that has happened to Britain in the last 50 years.
The current benefits bill for the UK government is truly shocking, leading many to believe that unemployment has always been much higher than the total provided by the ONS, based solely on those claiming Jobseekers Allowance. When there are so many different benefits this is hardly the best measure of unemployment.
It is also largely a myth that those claiming these benefits are homegrown workers – i.e. white British. A high proportion of those refusing to take work for these reasons are migrants, many of whom have been in the country for only a few years. So the white British stereotype is completely wrong – it was largely created by the Labour government and Gordon Brown to defend their policy of mass immigration.
The most notorious example of the true nature of welfare dependency is the recent case of an Afghan family in Ealing given a £1.2 million 7 bedroom mansion house in London to live in and several thousands pounds per week income, on condition that none of them worked.
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/65319
On TV members of the family said they felt like they had won the lottery and would encourage more to come. This is the system that was deliberately created by Gordon Brown.
How many migrants come to work for a few years, and as soon as they get residency switch to a life on benefits. The figures on NHS workers doing this are shocking . Benefits tourism and NHS tourism are major facts explaining migration.
Obviously some migrants come to work long-term as well, encouraged by exchange rates that make it feel like the minimum wage jobs are much better than those at home – they fill our shops, restaurants, coffee shops and bank branches, but the money spent comes from Gordon Brown’s mountain of debt.
And when most of the jobs they fill are unskilled, why is Brown claiming that migrants are needed for skilled jobs. Another lie. The data shows that the bulk of migrants will never do a skilled job, but instead fill unskilled service sector jobs.
It is not sustainable. Either the welfare state is reined back to encourage all UK residents to get a job, or the economy faces total collapse in the long-run. In order to achieve this the first thing we need to do is sack Brown. He is the root cause of so many of Britain’s problems right now. And if the Labour MP’s won’t do it, we will have to do itfor them, by getting rid of them at the next election.
115. I have no problem with more deficit spending - unlike some I think it is acceptable. But I’d prefer it to be targeted tax cuts for the working poor. Promotes efficiency. Basically we want to take people out of the tax net. Basically all the people shafted by Brown’s 10% tax hike.
134 - that is solely based on a uniform national swing and there is no evidence whatsoever that this will happen - as you are - inter alia - disregarding tactical vote unwind, focused marginal seat campaigning, regional swings and differential turnout.
This poll confirms that Brown is an electoral liability as we all know. I am glad though that he has salvaged some personal credibility, but I think that Gordon still remains the Tories biggest asset.
Second polling update: There will not be an Ipsos-MORI poll overnight. Fieldwork for their October monitor is under way this weekend and we should know the results on Wednesday or Thursday.
YouGov, meanwhile, are doing a marginals poll which should be out on Wednesday.
148. I think Polly has also talked about tax cuts at the bottom as a solution. Surely Brown’s dependency on tax credits rather than reducing tax rates for those at the bottom was one of his silliest judgements. All this talk about food and fuel prices - and Brown complains about nasty companies hitting ‘hardworking families’, so why doesn’t he reduce VAT on them?
Baxter give the Conservatives a majority of 28 with the following percentages;
Con 42% Lab 31% Lib 20%
I think thats actually very conservative. I could see both Labour and the Libs being a bit down on those numbers in the next election, but I think thats about the worse the Tories can expect to do and its still a perfectly workable majority.
See the Obama rally in St Louis today. Estimate over 100, 000, the crowds just stretch and stretch away into the distance. Far more than the famous Portland rally back in June. Mind you the weather was good.
Makes you think, how many would turn up to here for Brown, Cameron or Clegg, 100 and they would just be the cheerleaders and others unlucky enough to be in the area at the time!!!
I cannot remember crowds like it, can anyone else?
Does lend support to the polls that he is ahead in Missouri.
PS Have put a bet on the Lib Dems getting 75-85 seats. 20-1.
Looking at their present performance in their stronger areas I think its a winner!!!
Might all collapse next week, that is life, its all ups and downs and the Conservatives are experiencing a bit of that at the moment.
143 Actually, it won’t, although the boundary changes are generally encouraging for the Conservatives. Labour’s advantages are that (a) it has massive leads on low turnouts in its core areas (b) anti-Conservative tactical voting ( so that far fewer Labour candidates than Conservatives lose on 40%+ of the vote) (c) Wales and some inner city areas are still overreprsented, slightly.
I suspect (b) will diminish sharply at the next election. I imagine that anti-Labour candidates will gain sharply in a number of safe Labour seats (but this won’t cost them many seats) and (c)will remain in place.
151. It’ll be interesting to see what YouGov come up with in the marginals. Who are they doing this poll for Mike?
‘Have put a bet on the Lib Dems getting 75-85 seats. 20-1.’
….oh my god
I have to revise my prediction on Gordos demise, because he`s gone off message. He now thinks he has saved the world, and such a great leader, he ranks along side Churchill. He is now going to roam the world a la Blair, he wont have time to talk to the little people. This was not part of the plan, he knifed his new found buddie Lord Faulteroy by giving the bill on corruption to Jack Straw, total humiliation for his lordship. He will still go, but without the fanfare
157. Ouch - did you not mean 7.5 - 8.5?
155. As a liberal-lefty living in Wales I’m surprised the Tories wouldn’t push for a cull of Welsh seats.
Why not?
53 Has any allowance been given for the expected upsurge in the SNP vote in Scotland
The Lib Dems must be very worried by these polls,Vince Cable on the TV almost every night coming across loud and clear and yet the Lib Dems going backwards in the polls.
Is it Clegg that’s putting voters off or the realisation that they have no chance of forming the next government?
A very unpopular,tired left of centre government,lots of libertarian issues,a mood for change in the country,it is almost the perfect storm for the Lib Dems to show themselves as the clear alternative to Labour but they are stuck in reverse thrust.
163. What, now there’s been the banking crisis?
I did think it was interesting to see Salmond on Newsnight saying what wonderful banks they were. Only problem was that they’d been let down by Westminster.
Hmmm I predicted Cons would just hold on to 40% Labour 33% so slightly out. Thought with VC being so much on the news the Libdems might have managed 18% but think they’ll improve at the GE.
For any opposition to have only a single digit lead, half way through any government’s third term, is hardly momentous. No overall majority is looking likely, whose going to be the largest party is anybody guess.
162 Wales should have 35, rather than 40, I think. I suppose the Conservatives think that cutting Welsh representation is more trouble than it’s worth.
WRT the inner cities, there’s no real justification now for Hackney and Islington having four seats, other than administrative inertia.
Bet this poll is a kick in the teeth to Gordon. All the fine words and international praise heaped on him, and then a poll like the slave employed at Roman Triumphs whispers in his ear “Remember - you’re still a loser….”
163. It’ll be tough for the SNP to win more than 6 seats from Labour even with a large upsurge in support.
164. Nobody is going to risk voting for the third party when they want rid of the government. That will be the Lib-Dems main problem next time.
The one good think about this poll is what I said earlier, the Tories aren’t in the mid 40s any more. It’s game on now IMO, though the next few weeks could be as good as it gets for Labour. I still think Spring 09 is a real election possibility
168. Superman with less than one in three supporting him. If he hangs on until 2010 it’ll be a massacre.
UK Polling Report seem to be expecting a BPIX poll tonight.
166. But up until this rather odd banking crisis the Tories had consistent 15% leads with most pollsters. Theres no reason to suppose, as the crisis abates, that those kind of leads won’t come back.
“PS Have put a bet on the Lib Dems getting 75-85 seats. 20-1.
Looking at their present performance in their stronger areas I think its a winner!!!”
Who with? A pretty optimistic assessment IMO - though I think your right about the LD performance in their stronger areas if you look at the locals in 06-08 - indicative of the way in which sitting MPs have dug themselves in. What I think that means is that losses will be less than expected. The downside is that MPs dig themselves in using Communications Allowance material and that makes incumbents harder to shift.
You gotta laugh.
The Independent’s front page for tomorrow!
http://www.politicshome.com/#3900
175. Their losses may be less than expected, but what gains are they honestly expecting to make?
170
Yes,but the Lib Dems always use the lack of media time as their excuse for performing badly in the polls,but during the last few weeks we have seen more of Vince Cable than Osborne,Hammond & Clarke combined.
On unemployment Polly Toynbee points to two major changes about to be implemented:
- next week the new approach to people on sickness benefit is implemented. “to shift incapacity benefit claimants into work. New claimants will get an employment and support allowance, with tougher work capability tests. The very sick and totally incapable will get higher benefits than now, but the rest will get no more than the ordinary jobseeker’s allowance, required to seek work or train like the rest.”
- 24th November120,000 single parents with children aged 12 or over will have to register as jobseekers
Also due in four weeks is the tendering for the private companies to find long term unemployed jobs, with the associated threat of benefits cuts if people don’t take the offers up.
Not sure how the impact of these will play in a recession with potential Labour voters.
166. Your spin is worthy of Alistair Campbell! Let’s look at the facts, after a month of near total dominance of the headlines Labour have barely risen about 30% and the Tories haven’t gone below 40%. Before this the Tories had 20+ leads and, seeing as Brown has clearly failed to make any major impace, then I think we need to keep our eye on the longer-term trends. This really is a dead-cat bounce and it still leaves the Tories with a clear lead.
180. Considering how far ahead the Tories were, you must all be quite disappointed how quickly you’ve blown such a big lead.
Talk of 200+ Con majorities seems to have subsided somewhat.
169 All you good people south of the border always under estimate the SNP, labour are finished, more so than in England
176. Well, it’ll give the fluffies a bit of a thrill while they knit carbon-friendly socks out of re-cycled muesli.
182. We’ll see. I still expect Labour to hold Glenrothes. Would certainly be nice to shut some of the more arrogant SNP posters on here up.
Game on
IoS poll
Brown slashes Tory Lead
http://www.politicshome.com/#3900
143 - Madasfish, all your endless doom and gloom is all very endearing, not, but all this stuff about Pension funds going bust is simply nonsense and doesn’t reflect the reality of how pension funds operate.
182. Very good point. Many a Tory will quietly cheer SNP success.
185 - Astonishing that nobody picked up on this poll before.
ICM poll in the NoTW.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article48263.ece
185. But even they are hedging their bets with the;
“As recession bites can Labour keep improving?” caveat.
This is as good as it gets for Labour. Its downhill all the way from now on!
181. What you don’t understand is that we have had nearly a year of c.20 point Tory leads, yet only a couple of c.10 point in what has been an extraordinary period of time and one of Labour dominance of the media. Despite that, there is still a clear Tory lead. There is nothing to presume that, as ‘normal service’ in the media gradually resumes, the Tory poll leads wont climb back towards the longer-term trends. Dead-cat bounce.
181 by the same token though, surely Labour are somewhat disillusioned that the ’saviour of the world economy’ is less popular than the Tory’s woeful 2001 vintage as are the party
181
Nice bit of spin Charlie, ignoring the fact with all the positive coverage from the license funded broadcaster, coupled with the hang on to nurse syndrome, Labour ar still only picking up to core vote (if it is indeed core). Dead cat bounce is “on the money” right now.
Game on? Game over, Gabble!
179. This would all have been so much easier and sensible if it had been done during New Labour’s first term, in other words, they’d allowed Frank Field to do stuff. When the economy was good. Instead Gordon pursued his own agenda.
Quite frankly it is terrible. The risk with this stuff was always that vulnerable people are bullied into inappropriate jobs, while the evil scrotes who dont want to work will brazen their way out. I suspect Purnell becomes far less popular.
177 - I don’t think 5-10 gains - IE slightly more than in 2005 - in Labour seats is a totally unreasonable idea. Given that Labour are likely to poll lower nationally and there’s not a huge indication of tactical voting by Tories unravelling in LD/Lab marginals.
189-No voting intention.
Labour already look to be falling into chaos over immigration.
Still plenty of time for Ali and Mandy to get busy unfortunately.
176 The IoS headline bears out my quote from Thucydides up thread that even in 411 BC journalists “are less interested in telling the truth than in catching the attention of their public”.
Game on? we are well into the second half, with a lead though the Reds have been pressing a lot harder on the defence, having made a couple of substitutions, but to no avail.
191. Do you have any idea how patronising you sound? Of course I understand. The point is that there should be NOTHING Labour can do to be slashing the Tories leads at the moment, Cameron basically had a free ride to election victory. Now people are turning back to Labour, and if an election was called early next year, it would probably still be a Tory majority, but nowhere near the dizzy heights of a few months ago.
Cameron has proved himself to be a lightweight. The public still appear to like him, and want to give him a chance, but if there is another crisis of some sort before the next election, people will flee from him if he is as ineffective as he has been.
185 I cannot see this headline on politics home..is it just me?
Success be-gets success. The narrative has been that Brown is a lost cause. Polls like this will erode that assumption which will, in itself, encourage people to ‘look again’.
What exactly constitutes a ’slashing’ of a lead, exactly??!
The Tory lead has reduced from 12% to 9%, and that after Gordon Brown - Master of the Universe week.
The Independent is coming at it from the media narrative, which is - Brown is in the ascendant.
However, a simple, calm looking at the cold facts suggests Cameron need not sleep unduly restlessly tonight.
Luckily nobody read the Sindy, or PoliticsHome for that matter.
201 - Me neither.
202 - I suggest you put a paper bag over your head before you hyperventilate.
200 - Why would they “flee” from him if they haven’t fled from him in the midst of a crisis that has seen Gordon prevent the end of the World?
If you seriously believe that Labour “should” have been unable to eat into 20pt+ leads then you really must believe that they are hopeless. A bit of a mystery why you still claim to support them really.
In the months to come it’s their UB40s people will be looking at, not Brown.
“Gordon closes the gap by John Rentoul”
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/10/by-john-rento-4.html
Nailed on Con overall majority!!!!!!!!!!!
206. I support Labour, though Brown has given me cause for concern. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at the moment. If it’s clear after the June elections that he’s not turning it round at all, he should still go. But I think Labour can force a hung parliament at the next election, because I still don’t believe Cameron has got what it takes.
209. new and surprising contribution from Ave it
208 - Lol! Did you read the article or just assume that the headline was enough?
Ave it 08 .. seen the footy results?
211 - We all have our niches.
Sky reporting the polls as a dead cat bounce
200. As I said, this has been a unique period of time and perhaps more so a unique period of media narrative. It is this alone which has contributed to this slight bounce in the polls but as this period subsides and the media narrative settles once again then it is more than likely the polls will make a movement to where they were before, particularly if and when Labour lose Glenrothes. I wouldn’t make any assumptions about what the polls of the last couple of weeks indicate about a general election because they need to be placed with the context of an extraordinary period of time.
I’m sorry if you felt I patronised you, I didn’t intend to.
215
Sky, as ever, performing the true role of the national broadcaster, rather than the Brown Broadcasting Corporation.
Lord Ashcroft to leave £900m to charity
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4969301.ece
As if Brown would stay on as PM in a hung Parliament! He’s too used to getting his on way for that.
211
213 YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
WATFORD
BPIX
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078786/You-8217-like-Major-Churchill-voters-tell-Brown-latest-poll-shows-holds-election-hell-lose.html
“Alistair Darling will spend his way out of recession”
Mr Darling used an interview with The Sunday Telegraph to announce that he would increase borrowing to spend billions of pounds to help struggling home owners and to protect jobs.
“This a time when you have to support the economy,” he said. “You will see us switching our spending priorities to areas which make a difference.”
So saddling the economy with billions of pounds of debt for decades to come just so Labour don’t do as bad as they otherwise would?
As Bob Worcester always says, look at the shares.
This is about as good as it gets in publicity terms for Labour, and they are still short of what they need to even prevent a Conservative majority, let alone be in a position to challenge for minority power.
It’s worse when you consider that almost all recent polling (outside of the Tory 20%+ leads) shows the main variable to be voters switching between Lab and the LibDems. This is further bad news for Labour since the LibDems are likely to pick up in the publicity of an election campaign.
164 - But the LibDems don’t see themselves as an alternative to Labour.
X factor results show has started!! Please let Daniel be eliminated…would pay for my night out on Wednesday
BPIX
“When voters are asked who they would vote for in an emergency General Election on the economy, Mr Cameron scores 45 per cent, with Labour only six points behind on 39.”
From the ComRes poll:
Gordon Brown’s decisive handling of the bank crisis means that Labour has a good chance of winning the next election.
Agree 37% Disagree 54%
A leading question and still a majority firmly against Labour.
220 - That generalised voting intention is painful for both Labour and the Lib Dems. And as for this:
“Some of Mr Brown’s ratings are humiliating. A mere one in 50 sees him as attractive and one in 25 says he has charisma. And while three per cent think he is like Churchill, the same number say he resembles Neville Chamberlain, the PM accused of appeasing Hitler.”
225. Emergency Labour!
Gabble, stop being so selective, it’s embarrassing
225 - Why are you publicising a poll that is good for the Conservatives?
I wonder if BPIX included Heathcliff in the list of figures that Gordon Brown resembled?
“And while three per cent think [Brown] is like Churchill…”
Gabble, was that you?!
220
Con 46
Lab 30
LD 13
Polling Fri/Sat. I suspect this is the poll GeoffH referred to this afternoon.
Lib Dems really getting squeezed again, it seems.
217. Yes Ashcroft, despite winding up the Labour party beyond belief is a true philanthropist, the kind that we see too few of in this country.
Who are the people that change their minds about voting intention all the time? I know a single digit number of people who used to vote Tory and switched because of Blair’s acting skills and they’ve all come back to the Tories now. I don’t know many Lib Dems but the few I do know are the same as all the Labour and Tory supporters I know, who will be voting as they do for life! I guess the voting intention question could be what really swings these things. Do any of you know (or are any of you) people who change their minds about who to vote for even more than once in a lifetime?
“When voters are asked who they would vote for in an emergency General Election on the economy, Mr Cameron scores 45 per cent, with Labour only six points behind on 39.”
- BUT - when the economic crisis is removed from the question and voters concentrate on wider issues, the picture changes dramatically.
The Tory rating rises to 46 while Labour slumps to 30, 16 points behind, with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats on a lowly 13.”
—-BPIX
233. Awful, awful poll for Labour.
May I just point out that BPIX isn’t an ‘official’ pb.com pollster
233 - This is much more like the Lib Dem share I was expecting. I’m surprised the Tories are as high as 46% though.
184. “Would certainly be nice to shut some of the more arrogant SNP posters on here up.”
If you’re talking about Stuart Dickson, it would take more than a single by-election defeat to shut him up. And quite right too - this is scarcely an SNP-dominated forum. Let’s face it, it’s a heavily Tory-dominated forum with a few die-hard Labourites like yourself.
On the subject of Glenrothes, the Scotsman reported this morning that Alex Salmond was still privately confident of victory. The BBC reported two or three days ago that Labour strategists were now confident of victory, so somebody’s numbers must be wrong.
235 - I am one of those people. I have voted for all three parties and spoiled my ballot paper at different elections. I still haven’t decided who I’m voting for at the next election, though it won’t be Labour without some further dramatic changes of policy.
239. Actually, as irritating as Stuart can be sometimes, I’ve always found him polite.
233. bpix are voodoo polls though arent they? Even so, it must be devastating for Labour.
I remember as a Tory supporter during the dark days, around 2000, we had series after series of government incompetence, we had Blair shown to be a crook, huge tax rises, but nothing mattered. 32% was our flatline figure, nothing dented into it.
239. Red Meteor:If you’re talking about Stuart Dickson, it would take more than a single by-election defeat to shut him up.
This from the MoS certainly won’t; I fully expect him to come up with a full rebuttal within 12 hours:
There is a fresh blow to Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s hopes of independence. One in two Scots voters and 44 per cent of all UK voters say the Government’s rescue of the Scottish-based banks HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland undermines the case for Scottish home rule.
235 - they aren’t people who change voting intention. They are a group of people who treat opinion polls as a reaction to whatever events have taken place in the immediate run-up. They are the people responsible for Conference bounces, honeymoons etc.
I think the last BPIX figures were:
43
31
17
36 well compared with a government which has already frittered perhaps £100bn on grandiose PFI schemes and left the tax payers of the middle of the century to foot the bill, what a few more years of debt.
236
The 45/39 figure is troubling me, only in as much that others are usually 7- 8 % minimum at a GE. so that leaves the LIb Dems on 7%. Something is not quite right about the emergency election figs IMHO.
Mike do you have any comment to make SVP.
242. gaz: bpix are voodoo polls though arent they?
We don’t know, and that’s why we treat them with more than a pinch of salt. The polling itself is conducted by YouGov, but we don’t know what BPIX do to weight the data.
169 Stickers have you ever been to Scotland? SNP gains will be in the range of 12-20. When Mike starts publishing my Scottish predictions 2-8 you will see the seats in question.
Re boundary changes, it is not the Government on its own which decides how many seats and where. The Boundary Commission is independent in both Scotland and England and Wales. For 40 years there has been a natural pro-Labour bias but that has been because traditionally Labour seats were inner-city and urban seats and Tory seats were rural and suburban seats. Since the urban regeneration in the 1960s and creation of new towns etc, population has been leaving the cities and moving to the suburbs.
As the Commission only reports every 10-15 years. If you look at Glasgow Central, in the 1950s it was the seat of the Tory Secretary of State. By the 1960s the start of major regeneration saw thousands move out to Bishopbriggs, East Kilbride, Cumbernauld, Bearsden, Newton Mearns etc so by the time of the 1980 byelections in various parts of the country, Glasgow CEntral with less than 20,000 voters was the smallest electorate in Great Britain.
Manchester Central: September 1979 electorate 31,558
Herts SW: November 1979 electorate 76,776
Southend E: March 1980 electorate 57,016
Glasgow Central: June 1980 electorate 18,854
So the electorate in the 2 combined Labour seats of Manchester Central and Glasgow Central at 50,000 is less than in Southend East the smaller of the 2 Tory seats and only 67% of the Herts SW seat.
Over the years it takes a set of boundary enquiries to be conducted and reported upon, the movement from town to country continues so by the time the new boundaries take effect, some typical Labour seats could have lost a further 20-30% of its electorate and some larger Tory seats got even larger. So the Isle of Wight at 109,000 voters is 1.5 x the size of the average seat but it will probably need another boundary shift before it gets 2 seats. Meanwhile the sole Tory MP will be elected by as many as 2-3 x as many voters as some Labour MPs
243 - It points the way to independence that the SNP will eventually try to go down - get the rest of the UK to chuck them out! (which has the added advantage of putting the independent Scotland in a position of strength in post divorce negotiations).
221. The government is going to have to borrow just to meet costs. I dont see why we shouldnt do some pump priming in a downturn. There is no reason not to spend on capital projects in a downturn since it is cheaper than doing it in an upturn - but with the lead times, it will take far too long to get money into the economy. Also one always doubts the effectiveness of govt projects. I’d prefer tax cuts. Darling isnt actually suggesting anything special - I’d call it pretty disappointing.
244. A rebuttal isn’t hard. It would come in two parts -
1) The Scottish sample size must have been 200 or less - hardly statistically meaningful.
2) Who gives a monkeys what “all UK voters” think on that question?
250 - Mark, I think he is a lapsed LD in Alba
246. Me:
I have BPIX/Sunday Telegraph, fieldwork ending 26 September (published 28 September) of 41-34-17. Not sure where your numbers come from, as they’re not in my database. Have you more details?
omg X Factor lines now closed!!!
re 143 madasafish do you want a bet supporting your assertion that “inflation might be negative” next year. How about fifty quid at evens?
109 - easy to see when Gabble gets rattled, his posts make more sense
255-LS, I think this was the last one, wasn’t?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3092018/Poll-boosts-Prime-Minister-Gordon-Browns-fightback.html
daniel is safe…
who the hell is in bottom two?!?!?
236. A point to make is that incumbent LD MPs apparently generate a personal vote swing of a 3-5% due to positive opinions on their performance/keeping in touch with the electorate. As for LDs panicking, we’re not. And Clegg’s a cert to lead through the next GE at the least. I suspect it’ll be longer, and I’d back him for longer, but GE results always define a leader.
Oh, what fun. No wonder everybody wants them out.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4969312.ece
259. OK, that’s the same poll I had, but my figures were wrong. I know not why.
Thanks for telling me; I’ve updated my numbers.
That poll was right after Labour’s conference, was it not?
221 Gabble gets a hard time on here for being an ardent labour supporter, but he deserves credit for posting that BPIX poll, before anyone else as both the headline and content are not exactly great for labour.
Gabble, before it goes to your head it doesn’t mean I agree with anything else you say.
re 209 And Gabble, how does the first paragraph end? Let me remind you
but might have hoped for more after a week in which Paul Krugman, Nobel prize-winning economist, said he had singlehandedly saved the world’s financial system and the cartoonists all portrayed him as a superhero
Poor result for Labour; to be honest I fully expected a 2-4 point increase. As I said yesterday, the next 18+ months are pretty much set in stone, a constant drip, drip of bad news and worse headlines as the public sector is cut back and repossessions, unemployment and bankruptcies increase. Just the ticket for our Gordon as we head towards a G.E.
So, the Conservatives are 16% ahead, according to BPIX. I’ll settle for that. I’d even settle for a 45%/39% Conservative/Labour vote in a general election, as a result that so squeezed the Lib Dems and minor parties would produce the kind of result you’d have seen in the 50s and 60s.
262 - I don’t know about other countries, but from personal experience I can tell you that you can only buy a pay as you go mobile phone in Hungary with an ID card.
Where is the mori poll going to be?
267. Not going to happen, the combined vote of the big two has been in decline for decades, that’s not going to suddenly reverse, at best it’ll hold steady at a historical low.
267. If my mental arithmetic is correct, support for the ‘minor parties’ (not counting the Lib Dems) has gone up a touch in both these polls - it’ll be interesting to see how the figures break down. Maybe those mythological Greens who were supposedly drifting to Labour have now returned to the fold!
268 - And can you buy it and then give it to a friend?
267. Sean Fear: I’d even settle for a 45%/39% Conservative/Labour vote in a general election, as a result that so squeezed the Lib Dems and minor parties would produce the kind of result you’d have seen in the 50s and 60s.
45-39-8-8 gives 318-301-4 by Baxter. (Con 8 short of maj)
For comparison, 39-45-8-8 gives 233-384-7 (Lab maj 118)
270 I don’t believe it’ll happen either.
262 The trouble with this kind of nonsense is that it is expensive and ineffective and authoritarian. If I were a terrorist, I might just decide to steal a mobile phone or buy one from somewhere else, or just borrow a sim card or whatever. I am sure there are thousands of ways to get round this if you are a criminal or terrorist.
Sean F - would 45-39 give Labour a lead in seats though?
Re Austria, as you may have seen, new BZO leader is Stefan Petzner (just 27!) - will be interesting to see if the party can survive the loss of Haider. Next Landtag elections in Carinthia are next spring.
IMHO, economic crisis + death of Haider now makes Grand Coalition more likely in Austria.
267 The 46:39 one is basically the two party choice question isn’t it, set against an unlikely scenario. Surprised by the 16% lead on the standard poll.
262. Authoritarianism + incompetent, unworkable laws = new labour.
Two things make this policy useless.
1) stolen/ lost mobiles.
2) mobiles from abroad.
Labour: Making ordinary people feel like criminals and making identity theft an even more threatening and worrying prospect. Vote Labour in 2010!
Sean Rayment has this on the Three Line Whip. The Price of a Soldier’s Life
“Yesterday the Oxford Coroner said the Ministry of Defence should hang their heads in shame over the equipment failures which lead to the death of Corporal Mark Wright GC.
The 27-year-old member of 3 Para died in Septemeber 2006 while trying to rescue a colleague who was injured in a minefield in southern Afghanistan. His parents, Bob and Jem, were forced to wait two years to discover the exact circumstances behind their precious son’s death.”
From the BPIX poll results in the Mail I found the following statement surprising
“The poll found that Mr Brown is seen as being stronger, more honest, intelligent, realistic and dignified than Mr Cameron. But the Tory leader is regarded as more attractive, optimistic, charismatic, caring and patriotic.”
More honest? All those Brownies clearly haven’t registered? More realistic? UK economy best placed to weather the global economic storm!
Obviously the actual questions are important, but if you are a Brown supporter that has to be something positive from the Mail/BPIX poll. Seems like Brown can continue to tell the public things like debt is only 37% of GDP etc and so we can borrow more etc.
263-LS- No problem. And it was right after the Labour conference, you can see how Labour position is bad, 31% is considered a boost!
272. What, you mean can you do what you want with your own property? That’s so pre-post-democratic.
268 - How else do you think I got one?
273 Predictions based on Martin Baxter’s (or Anthony Wells’) model would go out the window if the combined score for Conservatives and Labour rose from 69% to 84%. The best starting point would be to look back at the periods when the Conservative and Labour parties did win 84% between them.
280 - they asked Dacre
264.
I don’t think you quite get it. He gave the link because he thought it was GOOD news for Labour.
?????????? - precisely.
276. “IMHO, economic crisis + death of Haider now makes Grand Coalition more likely now in Austria.”
But if the Freedom party and BZO were able to broker a reconciliation following Haider’s death, wouldn’t that make a right-wing coalition involving the OVP much more likely? (Hideous prospect, by the way.)
283 is directed to 272
275. Exactly, if you are a terrorist then breaking the law regarding the purchase and operation of mobile phones is hardly going to bother you. I can hardly see Al Qaeda quaking in their boots.
The not-terrorist criminal fraternity will need clean mobiles, the terrorists will just need to buy one in their local pub.
280. The thing about Brown is that his lies are often statistical, which few people will check up on, and few people read the kind of magazines that would check up on them for them.
278. And huge non-compliance from the public. On PAYG they get handed down through families, sold cheaply to friends/family of friends/workplace/etc. No one is going to bother changing the registration on them.
History shows that when voters desert a party in favour of their main opponents, the movement is always greatest where it matters.
Hope you all saw last week in the DT ,the funniest cartoon for a long time. Scene from “Life of Brian”.GB’s mother- ” He’s not the Messiah- he’s a very naughty boy”
290
I bet the Govt would force them to be cut them off to make them register..
276, there must be no reason now for the two parties not to reunite.
287 - yes that is a possibility depending on how cohesive BZO is post Haider. OVP is the “centre party” when it comes to forming governments.
This bounce is beginning to look like the Petrol Protest Bounce in 2000 - except the Tories went from double digits behind to get single figure leads. The Tory recovery evaporated and torpor returned soon enough.
244 LS, I doubt Alex Salmond will lose any sleep over what the UK electorate thinks! If only 1 in 2 Scots think the RBS/HBOS issue will damage his drive for independence then equally 1 in 2 think it will not damage his cause.
The Labour party in Scotland is tanking, it is not recovering. I am amazed at the number of Labour people who despair over Brown. The Scottish Labour paty was about the last part of the party to become New Labour and large parts are still not. They believed that Gordon Brown’s premiership would see a return to what they see as “real” Labour policies and values, hitting the nasty employers, taxing the rich, big state handouts to the poor and usual suspects, the wholesale return to classic Scottsh Labour “cradle to grave” paternalistic Labour control.
Alex Salmond and John Swinney (his cross between John Redwood and Kenneth Clark) this week announced that Scotland is to have its second year of council tax freeze and business rates for all small businesses with a rateable value up to £5000 is to be abolished. Scotland now has an all-time high number of policemen. That should see the Scottish Tories vote through his next budget.
Glenrothes is as someone showed the other day an SNP seat now not a Labour seat on the basis of the 2007 Holyrood AND council elections. Marcia and others are hearing it on the doorstep. Working class Scots have lost patience wih Labour. SNP gain
I just tried to read Brown’s article in today’s Telegraph. I couldn’t manage it all even though it’s not that long, and had far more fun reading some of the comments on it. I didn’t see a single positive one. I couldn’t read them all as there are so many but I copied and pasted them into a word doument; in Times New Roman size 12 the comment section filled 103 pages!
265. “superhero” very much in inverted commas I think. The pictures of him and his sidekick W in the Guardian looked more like Fatman and the WonderChimp than Superman or Batman.
184. Charlie you are deluded , its not arrogance its knowing what is happening in Scotland. Labour will get trounced in Glenrothes.
291. What is more, I’m not saying I did, but when I went to Russia, I COULD have just gone to one of the stalls on Oxford street and have them fix my phone so it would work abroad on a different company. Say, in about fifteen minutes for a tenner. Are they going to demand that phone manufacturers make such things impossible? Surely they’ve already tried?
re 290 surely that’s what journalists get paid for? I have not once heard any journalist question any government minister on their dodgy off-balance sheet PFI accounting.
298. “Marcia and others are hearing it on the doorstep.”
Has Marcia provided us with some feedback from Glenrothes? I must have missed it.
OT More evidence of the Govt twisting figures
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3222063/Gun-crime-60-higher-than-official-figures.html
This is why Labour have no way back at the next election - the economy will not recover the house price falls to date and the falls will continue and possibly accelerate!:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4969314.ece
Collapsing house prices are plunging 60,000 homeowners a month into negative equity, which means the country is on course for a worse crisis than the 1990s crash.
More good news:
Human tissue could be taken from the infirm without their consent and used for research
Human tissue could be taken from the mentally infirm without their consent and used to create embryos for experimentation, under Government proposals added to a controversial bill.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/health/3224172/Human-tissue-could-be-taken-from-the-infirm-without-their-consent-and-used-for-research.html
FWIW:
I’m projecting Obama leading by only 4.84%. McCain may be worth a second look as a value bet.
http://politicaltipster.com/2008/10/18/obama-leads-but-could-mccain-pull-off-an-upset/
Hmm… Well, I’ve just read 306 comments, and followed some of the links.
Conclusion: The second Brown bounce didn’t last long.
Certainly the Conservatives shouldn’t be complacent, but they should hardly be in panic mode, either.
After all, it’s downhill from here for Labour, as the economy deteriorates.
The lunatics really are running the asylum. GP’s to be paid bonuses NOT to send you to hospital.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078796/How-sick-GPs-paid-bonus-NOT-send-
re 308 4.84% in US terms is a landslide surely
As a relative newbie on PB, I was wondering how much the make-up of the cabinet / shadow cabinet compared to the last general will have on the actual outcome.
IMO, when we look at the last election, the Blair brand was damaged due to the likes of the Iraq war, dodgy dossier, etc, and I suspect that many of the important swing voters went for Labour as much for the reputation of the likes of Brown, Straw, Darling against the Tory no-team. If I remember correctly Simon Woodruff said exactly this, that he backed Labour at the last election because he believed they had a better overall team than the Tories.
Looking forward, how do PB’ers think that the respective “teams” play out with the middle ground? Does it really matter, are people simply going to vote for Brown vs Cameron, or is there more to it? Does Darling calm under fire (from the markets and I presume Brown) vs Osbourne’s weakness in the past few weeks matter? Does it really matter that the Labour government now has a lot of weaker cabinet members this time around following the departure of some of the big hitters likes of Reid, Clarke, etc?
77.”65: I picked up on the extrapolated 16 pt Tory lead in the NoTW analysis earlier, but it’s not a poll is it, just a hypothetical based on the “more likely/less likely” polling. It’s well out of kilter with the general mood.”
No its not Bob, it out of kilter with the media narrative rather than the general mood of the public. I said on a previous thread that I thought that might be the case, and its not the first time that has happened in the last 18-24 months. The Clunking fist comment by Blair was loved by the political lobby, I cringed when I heard it and was not surprised to see a similar reaction from another women on QT just afterwards.
The media are trying to lead the political narrative right now, they are basically fighting against the tide of a very sharp oncoming recession. Take the supposed honeymoon period Brown had in the polls last summer, the praise and hyperbole in the media was beyond parody. Quite simple, the public were pleased to see Blair go and that was reflected in the polls. They had already made up their minds up about Brown, he had been around long enough, he just didn’t make any major gaffes in his first few months over the summer hols/recess.
To put this into context, go back and check if a speech by Cameron and a few days in the media spotlight last year during there conference did more for their polling figure than this crisis has for Brown?
I don’t think that Brown has handled this crisis well, the media seem to think that bailing out the banks as a last resort with sums that make Black Wednesday look like a fiscal hiccup right at the start of what looks to be a very nasty recession was *good* news for Brown and his government? And to be honest, trying to now criticise the Conservatives for not coming up with a *another* plan as a contrast during the last couple of weeks is plain daft. They have been out of power for 11 years, and they would be better putting together an economic recovery plan that will be relevant at the time of the next GE. Holding the government to account and scrutinising their actions should be their primary concern right now.
304.”Has Marcia provided us with some feedback from Glenrothes? I must have missed it.”
Yes, but it quite far back up the thread.
304- I will post a report in the morning. Being in the most ‘Labour’ part of the Central Fife Holyrood seat was very interesting to say the least.
“Now Tories must hold their nerve”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4969175.ece
312: I think that is avery good question. My gut feel is that the personalities in the team matter very little to the man on the Clapham omnibus.
I read the papers avidly and following politics (and trying to make a few bob out of betting on the swings and roundabouts) is, since I became retired, my principle hobby. However, I couldn’t name more than half the cabinet and of the shadow cabinet I would struggle to give more than four or five names.
Now I probably spend four or five hours a day reading about politics so the chap on the bus probably hasn’t got a clue about who is who. My guess is that he will have a feeling about Brown, Darling, Cameron and, maybe Osbourne and beyond that its Labour or Conservative/Tory as a generality.
313 - You are far too modest. Yesterday you said that “I am going to stick my neck and say that the media narrative, and that is what it is, has decoupled from the public on this crisis.”
On tonight’s polling, your neck looks in good shape.
312 Even as a Tory one of the bonuses of the 1997 Blair win was not having the old tired faces on the TV bulletins anymore - no more Hurd, Heseltine, Clarke, Howard, Gummer, Hogg, Bottomley etc. Big Hitters or also rans it was a relief to see the change. Unfair on some talented ministers perhaps.
Just imagine the relief when what Brown, Darling, Balls, Straw, Harman, Cooper etc say and do doesn’t matter because they are either powerless or gone. Its time for a change, not more of the same.
316. I would Love Labour to call an election right now as I have been saying for the last week or so. They would be crushed no doubt about it!
317
I think Osborne blends into Cameron to the average person - young, public school background and all that. They even look somewhat alike.
The other two Conservatives that are reasonably well known, and they are generally well regarded, are William Hague and David Davis.
For Labour it would be Harman, Darling and Milliband - not an impressive bunch to the average person.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078786/You-8217-like-Major-Churchill-voters-tell-Brown-latest-poll-shows-holds-election-hell-lose.html
You’re more like Major than Churchill voters tell Brown.
320. Martin
They will be crushed a lot smaller in an election in 2009 or 2010.
The average voter wont be impressed that Brown used taxpayer’s money to save the bonuses of fatcat bankers but will have none to save their jobs in factories and shops.
320-Martin, the whole problem for Lab is that they might not have a better chance.
316.”A top Tory was last week having a fit of the vapours over it”
Me, this is about the third in as many days I have heard a journalist allude to top/senior Tory having the vapours. Another good one is that their are rumblings in the tearooms of Westminster. Firstly, I suspect its the same senior headless chicken running around clucking to the journalists, and that they have been heavily involved in senior Conservative politics for the last 10/15 years which should explain it.
Usually the first sign of any discontent occur when the usual handful of suspects trot off to deliver their letters to the 1922 committee, they then have to anonymously brief it to the press knowing that their identity will not be revealed. Cameron and Osborne have managed to stick a metal rod down the Conservative party’s spine in the last couple of years. With only about 18 months till the next GE, they are not going to indulge in a big fit of the vapours just to give the media a different angle because they are bored.
308 McCAIN coming back into it!!!!!!!!!!
[271] - The implied change for minor parties is only 1%, so it could simply be due to the rounding to the nearest percentage point for the main party figures.
The Lib Dems are getting really squeezed, but it remains to be seen whether this would result in them losing nearly as many seats as the seat predictors predict. In 1997 they lost votes and gained seats.
They could do the same again if they end up losing votes where they are third. In 2005 they gained many votes from Labour that did not bring them seats, or even put them into second place.
318.Thanks Antifrank, I fully expect the next set of polls to come back and smack me in the gob.
As usually my post is full of mistakes. We have a more up to date computer in the house, but being a techophobe, I cling to this very old, slightly knackered one with the duff keyboard. I touch type very fast, and sometimes the mistakes don’t show up before I post.
311.
A margin of 4.84% may well be a landslide in the context of the last two elections. However, it is about the same as the margin in 1992 and less than in 1920-1956, 1964 , 1972 , 1980 , 1984 and 1996. Of course the rise of electoral polarisation and the increasingly segmented electorate may mean that it is probably more difficult for a candidate to win by a larger margin than it was in the past.
However, what I’m saying is that overcoming a deficit of under 5% is much less difficult than one of 7-8%. A good ad, a couple of news cycles and some last minute qualms about Obama could put McCain over the edge. Of course the reverse is true and my linear extrapolation at the moment predicts an Obama victory by 9% but it does look more like 1992 than 1997 (in British terms).
1988 was also a comfortable victory for HW.
An interesting thought: would Brown serve a fifth term in Govt?
In terms of ability, it’s hard to judge because none have been given the chance in government, but it’s not sticking your neck out much to say that the likes of Cameron, Osborne, Andrew Lansley, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Gove - possible Grieve? - along with David Davis (who won’t be on any future Tory front bench but is well-known and well-regarded by the public) can’t do any worse than the political dwarves in the current government.
This is the cabinet, lest we forget, that makes Ed Balls look like a big beast. ..
Harriet has given MP’s their longest holiday this Christmas for 30 years. Is this so they can do some hard work in constituencies ready for an early election or to bolster chances in the spring elections?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078810/Outrage-Harman-gives-MPs-24-days-Christmas.html?ITO=1490
looks like a Labour and Tory candidate could already be in coalition!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078783/Election-candidate-Why-didnt-I-tell-Labour-police-record-They-didnt-ask-me.html
325-ChristinaD- I think Iven is spot on when he says this:
“Such speculation tells you more about the mental state of the Conservative party than the state of the opinion polls.”
Right now, they may not be heading for a landslide, but Cons will probably have a majority. If after such a good week for Lab, they are still 9% behind, then, only something really big (which I can’t think of it now) or this continuing media narrative can deprive Cons of a majority.
334. A case of Tories shafting Labour?
331 - I believe that he has already said that he will only seek to serve one further term, but I can’t find chapter and verse just now.
332. “In terms of ability, it’s hard to judge because none have been given the chance in government, but it’s not sticking your neck out much to say that the likes of Cameron, Osborne, Andrew Lansley, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Gove - possible Grieve? - along with David Davis (who won’t be on any future Tory front bench but is well-known and well-regarded by the public) can’t do any worse than the political dwarves in the current government.”
I was with you all the way until the word ‘Iain’.
337- http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20070418/ai_n19012303
331. It kind of self defeats his ‘experience in a time of crisis’ line if he (Brown) does not serve a full term!
335.Me, after months of planning, the Conservative Conference very quickly changed its agenda to reflect the current economic mood. But after Cameron’s speech, the choice of Bryan Ferry’s “lets stick together” was very deliberate. Also thought that the fact that ConHom was giving an expectation management briefing on polling figures during this economic turmoil was very deliberate too.
Gun crime 60% higher than official figures
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3222063/Gun-crime-60-higher-than-official-figures.html
338 IMO IDS was clearly a very poor coice for Tory Leader, especially given the TUTV speech (I want as many acronyms as possible in an IDS comment, even if it means making up a few!) but he’s been so much better in his new role. IIRC he has received near unanimous praise from people who have heard him over the last year or so. If IDS is so tainted to you, why not Hague? He didn’t have a TUTV moment but IDS didn’t have baseball cap or however-many-pints moments, and they’re both slightly odd, bald ex-Tory leaders. (Both of whom I personally respect enormously BTW)
341-ChristinaD- The danger for Cameron is that the media will continue this narrative of Brown being the savior. But as we discussed yesteaday, will this narrative hold when the economic situation gets worse?
I think Iain Duncan Smith is one of our best MPs at the minute.
He actually knows, and cares, what he’s talking about and is unafraid to say what may be unfashioable to a lot of people.
The Tories social justice report, headed by IDS, was one of the most well-considered reports produced by a political party of any hue for a very, very long time.
Strange as it may be to say in current climates, but in the long term Cameron would do well to continue putting the ‘fixing Britain’s broken society’ theme at the heart of his message, with IDS very much front and centre.
345 - No. IDS at the front and centre? Ha!
Rawnsley piece:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/19/gordonbrown-davidcameron-economic-policy
343. I’m only going on vague impressions, but I’d suggest that the public now take Hague much more seriously than they did, but regard IDS as beyond redemption. Undoubtedly he’s hugely popular among the Tory grass-roots, but that was the case even when he was still leader.
By the way, it’s amazing how it only took me about three seconds to work out that TUTUV stood for Turning Up The Volume! However, my own personal favourite was - “Mr Duncan Smith, if the chairman of the 1922 committee tells you that he’s received the letters necessary to trigger a leadership battle, what will you say?” IDS response - “go and put them in a telephone box”.
And of course, there was also - “if the men in grey suits hand you the proverbial revolver, what will you do?” IDS response - “the only shooting I’m going to be doing is shooting Tony Blair”. Sarah Palin, eat your heart out.
More details about the McCain Intrade market manipulator.
“David Rothschild, a researcher and Ph.D. candidate at the Wharton School, said that during the first two presidential debates, the trader bet thousands of dollars on a McCain electoral victory at the same moment that instant polls were suggesting that Obama would win.
“That’s equivalent to buying a company’s stock just as negative earning reports come out,” Rothschild said. “It is a bad investment, but may make some observers think that Mr. McCain won the debate, which, again would be the goal of market manipulation.”
Also, the trader paid a premium of 10 percent to 20 percent on every dollar traded by not placing similar bets on other Web sites, according to Rothschild’s calculations.
Overall, if the trader’s motive was to influence the Intrade market, he was remarkably successful, Rothschild said. The trader’s actions help keep the probability of Obama winning the election on Intrade about 10 percent lower than Betfair and IEM for more than a month.
“If the investor did this as investment, not to manipulate Intrade, he is one of the most foolish investors in the world,” Rothschild said.”
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265
Some thoughts and help for small and medium businesses from David Cameron. Expect Labour to steal them shortly
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/19/conservatives-cameron-gordon-brown-labour
IMMIGRANTS are squeezing hundreds of thousands of British workers out of jobs, official figures show.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/66805/Immigrant-jobs-shock
This makes me very angry indeed! Labour are a bunch of usless cretins as a government - they were told for years how immigration creates problems and did nothing about it. The NHS has suffered due to mass immigration. One could even argue the Doctors and nurses “stolen” from poor third world countries would not be needed but for the mass non- EU and uncontrolled EU Immigration (Other big states prevented the surge we got). Labour have chosen not to act in the national interest on immigration. It was all about inflating Property prices IMO.
‘MAKE MIDDLE CLASSES PAY MORE FOR HEATING’
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/66799/-Make-middle-classes-pay-more-for-heating-
Another stupid and extreme Labour policy as they lurch to the left!
305/342 - Just goes to show how importantly Nulab take gun crime. You could have a couple of hundred machine guns stashed away in the back bedroom and it wouldn’t even be a gun crime.
351. ‘MAKE MIDDLE CLASSES PAY MORE FOR HEATING’
That sounds like an April 1st story. Total suicide for Labour if they go for that idea.
348. i would suggest that IDS is possibly the most ‘in touch’ MP in regards to the ‘problems in urban areas’ (a euphemism for our ‘newer communities’ and their spawn shooting each other over drugs/territory/prostitutes/respect/gang membership).
He really does connect in a way few others do.
353. The idea for a national “fuel poverty levy” on all gas and electricity bills is the brainchild of Gordon Brown’s adviser on fuel poverty Derek Lickorish, who wants to create a pool of cash to help poorer households.
It is actually an adviser to Brown - Given Mandelson and Campbell being crought back to spin: Its all about firming up the Labour party core vote base. It is not about winning an election anymore but making sure they still have a viable number of MP’s left. It really astonishes me that the myth that Labour have speared the middle classes all this year has not been demolished more.
Labour have taxed Middle class households into debt. Then encouraged middle class folk to take out equity in their homes to pay for the taxes.
355. speared = spared
354. “a euphemism for our ‘newer communities’ and their spawn shooting each other over drugs/territory/prostitutes/respect/gang membership”
I trust IDS doesn’t try to ‘connect’ by using that kind of language, otherwise he might as well join the BNP.
ING bank in Hollnad may be having a problem. It was supposed to be another of the “strong” banks. Labour obviously thought so as they transferred some the Icelandic bank savers to ING with about 3bn of money from the compensation plans and some 600 million of government money to cover the accounts in excess of the normal guarantees. The 600million was a bit of a surprise to both Labour and Conservative MP’s earlier this week during the discussion that took place after PMQ’s in the House. It was kind of hidden amongst the other 42bn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3225557/ING-in-talks-on-capital-boost.html
353 – ‘MAKE MIDDLE CLASSES PAY MORE FOR HEATING’
Err… what exactly is middle class?
According to Ex PM Blair “we’re all middle class” And yet for most families to make ends meet we more resemble Karl Mark’s description of working class.
Is it not that the Labour Government really means that if you have the audacity to earn over a certain amount you are deemed ‘Middle Class’ therefore they have the right to, and will, publicly demonise and financially shaft you?
Have had a detailed look at all of the polls and the questions they asked. From these there is a stark conclusion.
The bank bailout is highly unpopular. Spending taxpayers money to rescue banks is political suicide and will do Labour far more harm in the long-run then if they had allowed banks to fail.
This is exactly what they should have expected.
The bailout of Northern Rock last year, with guarantees for bank balances, then it’s liabilities and then a comprehensive takeover through nationalisation caused Labour’s dramatic collapse in the polls - falling by over 20% in 6 months.
It seems we will see the same poll effect with the nationalisation of HBOS, RBS and Lloyds TSB.
It is not inconceivable that as the ‘NR effect’ takes hold over the next 12 months Labour will fall behind the Lib Dems in the polls.
357.
that old chestnut? eh… You realise screaming ‘racist’ doesnt work anymore?
361
Correct,New Labour have now given us permission to talk about immigration.
Just looking in after a busy evening. A technical query on the BPIX poll (not sure if anyone knows the answer). It’s unusual to have two voting questions, because if you’re asked two similar queries witgh different phrasing, you’re implicitly prompted to answer differently. The technically correct solution is a split sample, with half asked one and half the other. But I suspect BPIX asked everyone first one, then the other, and that makes whichever was asked second of the two (6% lead if an ‘economy’ election, 16% if not - NB with 11% others) a bit dodgy.
But leaving that aside, I think Stewart Jackson identified what’s happening correctly in his post earlier. This week has strengthened Brown, but not (yet) Labour. People like how Brown has handled the crisis, they give him a score draw with Cameron on personal ratings, as noted above, and they think he’s handling the economy better than Cameron would. But it’s not reached voting intentions yet. That’s not very different from my direct impression, but it’s still progress, since Brown was well behind Cameron in ratings in last month’s poll. The question is whether Brown can build on his higher ratings and translate them into voting intenitons, and that in turn depends on how people react to the economic storms ahead. The general assumption here has been that it will make them more anti-government, but that doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case.
Note, by the way, that the polls were taken partly before and partly after Cameron’s speech was reported.
361. I think you’ll find it still works if it’s justified. I didn’t actually use the word ‘racist’ - but if the shoe fits, feel free to wear it.
And in case I didn’t make it clear enough in my post, I don’t think for a moment IDS holds BNP-type views - I was talking about the views you were trying to project onto him.
363. Nick it’s great to have you contributing.
But do you really think this is anything more then a ‘dead cat bounce’.
The bank nationalisation is opposed by two-thirds in one poll, and three quarters in the other. This bodes very ill for those thinking there will be a Labour recovery beyond this weekend. And even no bounce whatsoever is showing up in the BPIX poll, and it is worth only 3% in the ComRes poll. If that’s a bounce, what’s a flop?
I see its the turn of The Times this Sunday to have a story about Mandelson doing something dodgy. Their name for him is now Lord Freebie. For all the Brown is a hero that has been going on in the MSM, it seems like the enemies that Mandelson has made over time won’t rest until they get something concrete on him to make him go 3-0.
Do PB’er think that the hate of Mandelson by many of the papers will effect their decision regarding who to support at the next election? Thinking of the Times, Mail and Sun in particular.
121.”And the LD value is clearly disappointing, but the policy of the income tax cuts should reap dividends as the credit crunch hits invididuals, there’s certainly no panic Lib Dems where I am.”
Will it though, the Libdems have been advocating exactly the opposite for the last 11 years, and suddenly now as the Conservatives are heading for government they convert to the joys of a tax cutting agenda?
Where was this zeal during the good years when we should have been able to afford it?
Yet the party renowned as a tax cutter is now saying that they can only be achieved when they are affordable. As the Conservatives found out, the voters have to be prepared to listen and believe your promises, and that is the Libdems biggest problem right now.
240.”If you’re talking about Stuart Dickson, it would take more than a single by-election defeat to shut him up. And quite right too - this is scarcely an SNP-dominated forum. Let’s face it, it’s a heavily Tory-dominated forum with a few die-hard Labourites like yourself.”
Err, when it comes to Scots this is an SNP dominated site with a few token Tories and Libdems thrown in. No Scottish Labour posters though. It always makes me chuckle when certain Labour posters miss that glaring fact.
Anyway, I am in a minority of one when it comes to Scottish posters who think that the SNP will not be as successful as some hope or predict on a GE night. Labour’s supporters have no problem kicking their party up the backside in Holyrood when they have the luxury of putting another centre left party into power there. But they will think twice about voting SNP in a GE when it will result in a Conservative government into Westminster. The SNP won last year because the other centre left coalition of Labour and the Libdems was no longer working or popular, and people wanted to kick them out of power. It was not because of a sudden desire for independence, add in a nasty recession, an incoming Tory government and a looming demand for a referendum in 2010, its not looking so good for the SNP.
365: Will, I think it’s a change in attitude to the party leaders. We can all find things in the polls we like - you’ve quoted some, I’ve quoted others. The 54-25 (from memory) finding that Cameron would not do as well as Brown in the crisis is probably the most helpful one from Labour’s viewpoint.
But no, I don’t think there’s been a fundamental shift in party attitudes. I’d summarise it like this: people are on the whole inclined to vote for a change, as they were four weeks ago, but rather less sure than they were, partly because of changing views of the leaders and partly because the overall situation is so uncertain.
367. “Err, when it comes to Scots this is an SNP dominated site with a few token Tories and Libdems thrown in.”
Only a tiny percentage of the posters here are Scottish, so that’s a bit of a meaningless statement. And as Conservatives, you and Easterross would make up a fair chunk of the Scottish contingent in any case. SNP posters that I’ve noticed - Stuart Dickson, Marcia, and the admittedly somewhat over-the-top MalcolmG. Not that many at all, and it’s good there’s at least a few of them to fly the flag. If there are no Scottish Labour posters, there are plenty of English Labour posters to pick up the slack.
On your broader point, I also disagree. The SNP have tended to do less well in Westminster elections, but that’s largely because they get drowned out in the media by the Labour v Tory slugfest (in contrast to Holyrood elections where the SNP are always one of the top two contenders). But next time may well be different, with the SNP having the credibility of being in government for the first time, and making the case for a strong Westminister contingent to support their work. As for the danger of letting in a Tory government, people will probably have accepted that’s an inevitability by that point (in fact many have already), and the question will be who will best look after Scotland’s interests at Westminster.
By the way, the academic James Mitchell says in the Sunday Herald today that people aren’t being scared off from voting SNP because of any doubts they may have about independence - they know that a vote for the SNP is not in itself a vote for independence, at the absolute most it’s a vote for a referendum. That important principle now seems to have been well established in the electorate’s minds.
368.”But no, I don’t think there’s been a fundamental shift in party attitudes. I’d summarise it like this: people are on the whole inclined to vote for a change, as they were four weeks ago, but rather less sure than they were, partly because of changing views of the leaders and partly because the overall situation is so uncertain.”
What changing view of the leaders? The media have had a road to Damascus change of view over Brown, how many times is that now? The great *Brown*, I saved the world narrative with comparisons to Thatcher and Churchill thrown in, when just a couple of weeks ago he was facing a rebellion?
It appears that others came up with the plan to bail out the banks, but sorry Darling, needs must and my polls are tanking as the party plots to get rid of me?
If there is one thing Brown has been good at, its been hiding his weaknesses while puffing up his economic credentials. The truth is, that he has had to spray paint yet more money at a problem while sticking the bill on tick, and then he had to bring back Mandelson and Campbell to try and save his premiership.
His media appearances are awful and need to be edited, and while the broadsheet journalists might fawn over him at the moment, every local newspaper is delivering the real news to the local population in their area as this recession hits sharply and painfully.
Its the story of the local councils etc losing vast sums of taxpayers money in those Icelandic banks, who is going to bail them out? Yes the very same taxpayer yet again. But, its not real money anymore, its now a very long term debt that we will be paying for generations. After all those years of extra tax, much of it stealth taxes, Brown’s legacy will be to leave us with high taxation for years to come.
And will those local councils be viewed in the same way as those 6 figure, million pound bonus Banking chiefs? Will the government come to their rescue?
369.I still make it 4:2 for the SNP.
And be fair, I am the only Scot daring to advocate that the SNP juggernaut might stall in the next GE. Anyway, if I am proved wrong, I am sure that there will be a queue formed by the other Scots using the excellent archives on this site to remind me of my doomed predictions. 
“Gabble gets a hard time on here for being an ardent labour supporter…”
No, he gets a hard time for being a blinkered, cherry-picking, medacious apologist for authoritarianism.
372 yeah, a labour supporter
David Cameron on What my party can do to save Britain’s small businesses.
While Brown rushes to save the big Banks with taxpayers money, by adding to the national debt burden over the last couple of weeks. The Conservatives continue to tick off their list of smaller(in the media eyes), but vitally important components that make up the British voting public and are vital to keeping the economy going.