Should spread punters now be buying Labour?

There’s a new ComRes poll out for the Independent which could make worrying reading for the Tories. Although the margin over Labour is down by just one point the last ComRes poll was showing the worst figures for the Tories of all the pollsters.

As ever the Independent’s report of its poll is highly misleading because the comparisons it uses are with the last survey it published – not the last survey by the same pollster. They do this every month and every month this presents a distorted picture.

The correct comparison with the survey that appeared in the Independent on Sunday the week before last are: CON 39 (-1): LAB 31% (nc): LD 16% (nc).

The commons seat figures in the panel above are taken by inputting the latest numbers into the UKPollingReport seat calculator. This applies the changes on a uniform national swing basis and almost certainly understates the Lib Dem position.

We now have a position where the projected seat totals are out of line with the spread betting markets

The overnight numbers from PB’s spread-betting sponsor, Sporting Index were: CON 342-348: LAB 234-240: LD 43-46.

If you think that other polls might be in the same area then there’s a good case for saying – buy Labour.

Mike Smithson