Why my 50/1 shot is going to win AND WIN BIG
November 2nd, 2008
Has the heart gone out of McCain supporters?
One of the perils of being in the political prediction business is that what you write can come back to haunt you and I have made my fair share of wrong calls.
But there is one prediction of which I take enormous pride - made here on the site just four months after Bush had been installed for his second term.
In support of my argument on May 26th 2005 that people should back Obama at 50/1 I wrote: “Thinking forward just two and a half years you can see what a hurdle the Iowa caucuses in January 2008 are going to be for Hilary. The nature of this process and the way people get together and discuss the options saw off the favourite, Howard Dean last year and might be the context that is good for a charismatic contender like Barack”.
Now this morning, with just a day and a half of campaigning left, I’m going to make another call - that the young black senator from Illinois is not only going to win but that he’s going to win big. By that I mean that his victory margin in terms of votes will be at the high end of the polls that are coming out
My reasoning is that the way the campaign has been evolving has seriously knocked the heart out of McCain supporters and that they will be less motivated to go to the polling stations. This is quite a common effect in elections and is one of the reasons why the opinion polls can be so important in creating the backdrop against which the campaign operates.
The morale of McCain backers can be seen in an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll which found that 43% of Obama backers said they are excited over the campaign, compared with just 13% of McCain’s. Six out of 10 Obama supporters said the race interests them, compared to just four out of 10 backing McCain.
Voter enthusiasm can matter enormously. The AP report quotes a political scientist who has studied voter behaviour saying: “Negative feelings about a campaign can discourage voters by making them less likely to go through what can be a painful process: Voting for someone who will lose.”
Republican supporters have seen their party choose a nominee who is out of sync with large parts of the core base, a V-P pick who has become a joke and a disaster, and a campaign that has appeared to have been out-flanked at every turn by the opposition. Is it any wonder that they feel down?
I’m looking at the electoral college vote spread betting this morning and might well be extending my position.
Mike Smithson
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Hope you are right, Mike. I find it hard to call. McCain voters might not be very excited about their guy, but still quite determined to keep the other guy out. I’m not sure there is value in chasing Obama electoral votes at this stage.
Maybe they are unhappy at the unmitigated disaster that the next presidency will be.
Yep, Obama landslide, the game is well and truly over.
James Purnell and Jim Murphy look wobbly this weekend.
eposted from last thread - I see Brown was not able to rule out the Tory assault regarding a 4p rise in income tax - Brown’s deferred taxation bombshell will be the wrecker for any recovery from this recession and I expect it to form a keystone of the Tory assault from here on in.
3 refers to Brown’s interview/love in with Andy Marr on AM today - Marr of course was unable to rise to the occasion and challenge Brown about his ridiculous low borrowing drivel.
Wasn’t Mike only a day or two ago posting an article that suggested the polls could be wrong, and that a punt on McCain at 8/1 was good value?
I’m really not convinced by this reasoning…
I still remember the voter turnout the Republicans got in 2004 with one of the most unpopular Presidents ever - Kerry got the second highest vote for any presidential candidate ever - but still Bush got more!
I fear there is a huge motivational aspect in this that will see a very high Republican turnout out again - people desperate to not see Obama as president and who will be urged to turnout because of rather than despite the fact he seems to be losing.
The real question is just how many of Obama’s supporters will actually bother to vote for possibly their first time.
If “The Messiah” wins I shall probably sleepwalk through the next 4/8 years.I seriously think his election is one big “CON”& people will become disillusioned fairly quickly when their aspirations are not realised.
from previous thread:
95. 4p on income tax.. doesnt sound too bad, get through the crisis etc, what’s 4p?? Well its a 20% increase in income tax, no small fry..
1. Agreed. I think on balance Obama will win big, but I’ve got a funny feeling about Florida and one or two others which could restrict his electoral college votes to the mid-350s at best.
I agree with Pimpernel to a certain extent. Mike I think the problem with your theory is that it only really ever applies to more educated voters and electorates, ie both sides of the British political spectrum but only to the Left in the US. Most people who, after a campaign like this and after the media narrative as it has been still support McCain, are likely to make damned sure that they go out and register the fact that they are NOT one of the seemingly ubiquitous Obama crowd. If only to annoy Europeans and other foreigners!
8. Florida and PA worry me.
OT.
The Labour Party discover the internet, and we all kind of wish they hadnt:
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/11/labour-discover.html
It’s very weak, be warned, i cant even bother to give them a single star for effort.
Is there an argument that the folks who should come out for Obama (minorities, the youth etc) may be a tad unreliable?
I’m expecting Barack Obama to score at or upwards of the 397 electoral votes predicted by Jack W, and have been doing so for some time. It’s as much about the economic climate as the respective merits of the candidates or their campaigns.
I fear that the American people will get the President they deserve.
I have to go along with Mike’s thoughts and am delighted at talk of a record turmout.
Which candidate will be favoured by a record tiurnout I know not.
From Fox News
Predictions of the highest voter turnout in decades on Tuesday have led the Justice Department to help election officials bracing for problems and spurred a civil rights group to fight for more voting machines in minority polling places.
To prepare against Election Day issues, the Justice Department will deploy more than 800 federal observers and monitors to voting sites in 23 states.
“The Department of Justice will do all it can to help ensure that elections run as smoothly as possible and, equally important, that the American people have confidence in our electoral process,” Attorney General Michael Mukasey said in a written statement.
Among the states that DOJ lawyers will observe are Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, which are all crucial battlegrounds that both candidates want to win.
“On Nov. 4, hundreds of Department of Justice lawyers, monitors and observers will be working throughout the country to help make sure that all Americans who are entitled to vote are able to do so, and that the elections accurately represent the will of the people,” Mukasey said.
12 - yes, although I do wonder how many of those who didn’t turn out in 2004 will do so this time. Being a bit older, a bit wiser (maybe) and less immune to economic and other factors. Plus a guilt trip over letting Bush back in last time
I guess the key question here is how much the enthusiasm gap is factored into the polls already. Presumably most sane likely voters screens will be affected by this one way or another - but maybe not enough?
I’m looking at the electoral college vote spread betting this morning and might well be extending my position.
You’ll be lucky Mike, Sporting’s ECV market remains suspended - yes really! IG aren’t listing it and trading on Spreadfair is virtually non-existent. Marvellous innit!
I lost £20 on the Stanford game, so….
Barry is Blair with a worse-wife. [Check-out The Economist's Lexington comments a few months back...!]
Another £20 is available for anyone who wishes (a single bet only) to deny that Senator John McCain will be the next US President. [Charity-donations only; no personal funds!]
All offers via Mr Mike Smithson’s office. My Charity-of-Choice is Her Majesty’s Royal British Legion…!
More from bloomberg.com
Democrats See Path to 60 in Senate: Campaign Notebook (Update1)
By Joe Sobczyk
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) — Democrats see a path to a 60-vote Senate majority that would make it harder for Republicans to thwart their agenda.
Democrats say the conviction of Alaska’s Ted Stevens on seven felony counts this week adds another solid Republican turnover opportunity to the list that already includes the open seats in New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.
In four other races with Republican incumbents, in Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota and North Carolina, the Democratic challenger has a lead in polls. The party’s candidates also have shots at upsets in Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi.
While Democrats claim the majority now with 51 seats, a net gain of nine won’t make them filibuster-proof.
One member of their majority is Democrat-turned-independent Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. He has angered party leaders by endorsing Republican presidential candidate John McCain and they are eager to oust him from his committee chairmanship.
It’s also no sure thing that even 60 Democratic senators will agree with their leaders on every issue. Moderate Democrats including Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Tom Carper of Delaware and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana may be wary of backing every initiative of the party’s liberal wing.
“It is way too simplistic to say that if the Democrats get 60 seats, it’s open season,” said Anne Mathias, director of policy research at the Stanford Group Co
It’s quite amusing how many right wingers express total certainty in how much of a disaster Obama is going to be, but yet are pretty sure that Palin is ready to be President if required
11. Unfortunately, by pointing out that Osborne has a history degree, they raise the point that Brown has too. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Also, the A-team music is great and everyone loves it, so why associate the Tory party with BA?
11. Wow. That really is sh*te! Tories clapping and cheering as they win. Boris the mayor of London. Boris cancelling the hated congestion charge. LOL. See you in twenty years guys.
Do the Americans associate the initials “B.O.” with the same personal hygiene problems we do?
Just a thought that “Go, Go, with B.O.” doesn’t resonate quite like “All the way with J.F.K.”
How can McCain possibly win?
Courtesy of Wall Street Journal
Sen. Obama enjoys a lead in all but two of the states that have seen a decline in house prices according to Ofheo index, including four states that went to President Bush in the 2004 election. The two states in which Sen. McCain leads in polling? His home state of Arizona and Alaska, the home state of his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin. –Phil Izzo
23
The cameron footage was from the Crewe and Nantwich by Election was it not??
26. I think it was the mayoral/locals night. The biggest Tory successes for a decade.
6 et al. Commenters - here and elsewhere - referring to Barack Obama thus, “If “The Messiah” wins” or “The One, “The Chosen” and other similar epithets imagine they’re being cleverly sarcastic.
They are not. This form of sneering and snarky attack reveals a deeply unpleasant resentment and bitterness. These names are nothing more than a coded way of calling him “The N*gg*r”.
Just seen the previous article. Be interesting to see how the other polls stack up, though I imagine they’ll stay roughly where they were last time with a point or two here or there.
Kudos to Mike and those who followed his advice for a 50/1 shot. Good luck on election night.
28. Don’t be silly.
28. As an out and out Obama supporter, I have to say that is complete nonsense.
30. Exactly. What an absurd silly thing to say, does he really believe it? People refer to Obama as the Messiah because either him or his supporters have such an exceptionally high opinion of him.
I think maybe, mr geoffH is over compensating for some of his own feelings that he feels guilty about.
The Daily Show and others lampoon Obama (and his supporters) as the Messiah too. No doubt they’re just hiding their racism.
30 Why not? You are silly most of the time.
6 Just sour grapes on your part, I think, David.
Very surprised Obama does not appear to be going to Pennsylvania at all in the last 3 days of the campaign. Yesterday he was out West and in Missouri. Today he has 2 rallies in Ohio. Tomorrow he’s in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
Yet Pennsylvania is now the absolute key State. If Obama has won Colorado (highly likely given the huge early voting), then if he wins Pennsylvania he has won. Why spend all his time in tougher States? Florida is irrelevant now - if he wins Florida he will have won easily overall anyway.
(Biden is going to Pennsylvania for one rally tomorrow after spending all day today at 3 rallies in Florida).
The only question for me is how close Obama is going to get to 400 ECV’s. Republican voters feel completely demoralized and if they turn out it will be more for the Congressional races, especially to Senate so as to limit the Democrat’s power.
@28:
Calling Obama a Messiah is the same as calling him a N*gger?
Explain that one again. I don’t get it. As was mentioned above, The Daily Show make numerous mentions of Obama’s messianic tenencies too. They did have a “miracle of the day” for a while.
I hope you’ll be letting John Stewart know what RACIALIST SCUM he is too.
OT, since I just watched The X Factor results: I was surprised to see Austin go. Didn’t especially care for his singing, but he was fit, so a shame to lose him.
I see my mediocre position on Diana Vickers still looks good value.
I love her. She’s a adorable. Can I keep her, mummy?
37. I seem to recall Tony Blair used to be roundly lampooned in a similar way - but no doubt that was also cover for racist abuse.
Zogby 3 day tracker:
O 49.5%, M 43.8% (yesterday 49.1 - 44.1)
(Most recent single day’s polling was O 52, M 42).
http://www.zogby.com/main.htm
Mike - excellent article, one of your best and most astute.
Its wonderful to see the grubby little right-wingers here and in other places squirm. You are all mouth when it comes to the polls in the UK giving Prety Boy Dave a lift; yet when it comes to the US you can find a thousand reasons why the polls are wrong and why the sad old man will win.
Not all Conservative posters are ‘grubby little right-wingers,’ but those who are know who I’m talking about.
Obama will be the next President. He will be judged against his predecessor, as are all Presidents and Prime Ministers. On that basis he will be seen as a genius who undoes much of the damage of the Bush years.
‘Wingers, just suck up and live with it.
And incidentally if Cameron is the next UK PM I really hope that he is a dazzling success - against Brownstuff he’ll be seen by most as excellent.
Malcolm
34-Tim-Perhaps so-call it frustration.
@41:
Oi, some of my best friends are grubby little right wingers! Most of them want Obama to win.
Why such anger from you? We all know that McCain’s fuxx0red. Even Ave It.
Any affection I may have had for Mac has long since evaporated in the shower of shite that his campaign has become.
And the GOP are thoroughly toxic and deserve the humiliation about to be visited upon them.
Slightly O/T but timing note - US clocks went back last night so all info moves back an hour - ie we will get Rasmussen at 2.30pm and Gallup at 6pm UK time.
22. I’m not sure I understand what the video is driving at. What’s wrong with a history degree from Oxford? It’s hardly Media Studies at Scunthorpe Polytechnic.
I remember reading Mike’s first posting about Obama - I hadn’t heard of him. The 50-1 was some call, even if we have been reminded of it on more than one occasion !), but in this game we all need a bit of self-promotion.
Does this election seem like a US version of 1997?
11. God isn’t that awful? Just clueless. Thank goodness Labour have the BBC to rely on for PR and not just their own hopeless efforts.
23.
Yes, they’ve reverted to Crewe and Nantwich style thinking. Why do they believe showing a happy, but also quite humble, Cameron would be a vote winner for Labour? That answer is that to the Labour team, seeing happy Tories makes them want to vomit and because they’re so hollowed out, the only ones left are the foaming and the mouth rabid types who can’t imagine that the vast majority of the public, especially the voters they need to win back, do not have that reaction.
I think we need to coin the term Creweism, where Labour make an attack on the Tories that is purely based around they’re own red tinted worldview, rather than something that might actually convince some floating voters.
As it stands, if that video makes it to BBC News, I expect the Tories to get a boost in the next polls.
38. She looks ever more likely to win, although I think that Eoghan may be able to cause an upset (tweenage vote) that goes undetected in the same way Leon Jackson did last year. Diana will to just fine as long as she keeps the over-gesticulating with her hands under control.
I remember first coming across obama in a speech made by another Amercian politican about 10 years ago - at the time he was just becoming a state senator but even then he was being referred to as a rising star.
Think it will be clear rather than landslide
That Labour video is class. Incidentally, is the crime cutting stat attributed to Labour Chief of Crime Ian Blair accurate, given recent stat changes?
The A-team music is cool, Labour were wrong to use it, I think.
Still, an entertaining video.
IG go with a spread of 336-342 for Obama’s EC Votes now, for anyone interested in a buy
Looks like the Independent is actually a racist redneck rag as well…:)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/obamaniacs-flock-to-see-a-glimpse-of-the-chosen-one-984640.html
43 Martin
“Any affection I may have had for Mac has long since evaporated in the shower of shite that his campaign has become.
And the GOP are thoroughly toxic and deserve the humiliation about to be visited upon them.”
That is what makes me angry, that anybody could still want a toxic party to grab the presidency.
Incidentally NYT have a wonderful graphic on 2004 and 2008 polls.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/01/us/politics/20081101_POLL_GRAPHIC.html
Malcolm
52-Sorry Morris-That was utter crap,drivel,garbage & extremely amateurish.
54. OK Runnymede - point made. I think GeoffH has gone off with his tale between his legs
How can John McCain win…?
And I thought the rule-of-law mattered…!
56, d’you mean the video, or my post?
43. Its Obamas supporters that put me off supporting him.
If I was an American, I would be making two options, both of them a punt:
i) vote for McCain in the hope he drops dead within twelve months and we get Palin as president
ii) Vote for Obama and hope he isnt the narcissist demi-god his supporters wish him to be.
I suppose their is a novelty factor in both choices, one gets the first female president, one that really annoys liberal feminists like you wouldnt believe, and the other is the first African American president, which acts like some kind of collective prank on african americans and white liberals, as he is not african american, though he does have a mouthy wife who is.
55 You do seem to be someone who is full of anger, which is surprising, as your candidate is going to win pretty easily.
Quick! You can buy Obama at 342 with IG and sell him at 344 with Sporting!
Well done Mike and don’t ever be shy about referring to this call. 50/1 winners are very rare. This will be my first, if it happens, and I am now confident it will.
Looking again at what you wrote, it was even more prescient than I had realised. At that time, I had barely heard of the Iowa Caucuses and yet it was precisely those strange get-togethers that propelled Obama on his way.
Like you, I am becoming more confident of a big win. We are into the last weekend and the room for shocks and revelations now is miniscule. If the best the GOP can come up with is an Aunt who is suspected to be an illegal immigrant, he has little more to fear.
The size of the win will depend a lot on GOTV, where Obama is said to be strong, and Republican apathy, which is hard to judge.
Well done again, mate. See you Tuesday.
62. Obama was available to buy at 338 on IG earlier!? Strange…
60 - Lucky you’re not an American then, based on 1) !
59-Not you man-The video.Sorry that was’nt clear.
60 Gaz
Senator Obama’s father from Kenya was an African.
Senator Obama’s mother from Kansas was an American.
It seems that Mr Obama is the best example of an ‘African-American.’
Indeed both his parents are from stock that was under the collar of the British Empire. It just gets better and better.
Malcolm
66, no problem, I’m a bit sleepy (as ever:p).
I agree the video did not remotely achieve its aim, and probably achieves the opposite, but that doesn’t stop it being entertaining.
Attacking Osborne may gain a small amount of traction, but Boris and Cameron are huge electoral assets for the Tories. It’s like a republican (boo hiss!) trying to take down the monarchy by attacking the Queen’s sense of duty and calling Prince Harry a coward.
Why are so many people so concerned that Obama HAS won?
The election hasnt taken place yet.
1) We know that polsters are often wrong
2) We know of the Bradley effect
3) We know about Shy Republicans
We can be fairly sure, Obama will get less than the polls state and McCain will get more.
So why is it so important for people to say Obama HAS won? For those with an agenda, they wish to present a Fait a complis or to generate momentum.
But Mike, you need to wait till the election to collect your 50:1 winnings. Saying something doesnt make it so.
The ‘Change’ narrative has become something akin to Religion. Belief that Obama is the President doesnt make him the President.
So Let’s keep a cool, level head and analyse the facts and theories without believing in something. That is the value of PoliticalBetting.
Adam Boulton sucking-up to the ethnic-”Democrat[?]” vote on SkyNews now!
Is he Gabble…?
Dead soldiers and safe public-sector pensions: you do the math…!
Been checking dates. Obama senior went to Hawaii in 1959 from his home in kenya. Kenya was a British colony until 1963. So Obama the candidate has a British dad and thus a good claim surely to British citizenship. If elected he is arguably the first British president of the United States since George Washington.
60 and others - should Obama get elected on Tuesday, it will be very interesting for the next couple of years.
Basically, he has to govern from the centre, because a lot of his support has come from there.
His victory is as likely to be down to sheer GOP dissatisfaction (to put it mildly) from many waverers as his own party. If those who have jumped over to him feel that they he’s let them down they just simply won’t vote for him again.
70. Don’t get Rod started again…
71 A&D
Everything about him and his campaign suggests he will govern from the centre. He would be mad to do otherwise, and he is anything but mad.
73 - Obama himself is clever enough to know that. It’s how his own party act that could cause him problems, especially if they get a filibuster-proof majority and start going out for “revenge”.
Isn’t (Dem controlled) Congress on something like 22% approval rating? That could be a warning sign right off the bat for him
41. Oi! I’m a “grubby right winger” and proud of it (its better than being a lying insect of a lefty) - and I’ve been a-rooting for Obama since Iowa.
America needs some new clothes, if she’s going to keep stepping out in the world - she’s looking a bit shabby these days. Obama will provide them.
I also think that Obama will win a very robust victory.
The only place I disagree with Mike is the McCain campaign. I thought it was fine, it wasn’t that negative or chaotic or anything - the poor guy just didn’t have much chance in the first place, despite being a very honorable man in himself.
He had, firstly, to deal with the Bush legacy. The Iraq war especially. Even though the Surge might have worked, Americans were yearning for a chance to move on: McCain, as a pro-war Republican, supported by Bush, was not that chance.
Then the economy: as soon as that started really tanking McCain was over. The anti-incumbent affect of a recession compounded the anti-Bush feeling in the country, giving McCain a Himalaya to climb.
What could McCain have done to reverse these vast tidal forces? Nowt. Palin was a gamble that may not have succeeded - but McCain knew he had to gamble. I don’t think she was a mistake, just a bold and necessary punt that didn’t work.
So we should spare some pity for McCain as Obama rolls home. The old guy fought a good fight but has (probably!) lost against insuperable odds. No shame in that.
Charlie Cook has an interesting article in the National Journal; it maybe says something about the UK and Cameron.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20081101_1313.php
From Louisiana to the whole US to the UK, fascnating stuff.
Malcolm
67. NO NO NO. That does not equate to the term African American, which is specifically reserved for Black americans who descend from those imported over to be slaves.
Genuine Black Africans who live in america are in no way comparable in culture, language, educational achievement etc to african americans.
76 Guido is having a go at Shaun Woodward. Whatever could he mean?
http://www.order-order.com/
28 Geoff H
You are quite wrong. There is something ‘messianic’ about him. He’s joked about it himself and as long as nobody takes it too seriously, it doesn’t matter. ‘The One’ originated I think from Oprah Winfrey but it was no more than a perfectly permissible bit of hyperbole from an entertainer known for her OTT performances. None of the epithets you mention are codes for nig8er and you are barking up the wrong tree.
You would I think have been nearer the mark if you had alluded to Palin’s ‘real America’ when addressing crowds in, I think, West Virginia. In its context, it was a bit of a dog whistle but I was glad to see it disowned by McCain and large part of the GOP.
She apologised later, I believe.
Well Zogby must get the award for weirdest pollster if the figures up thread are correct +1 Mac yesterday and +10 Obama today - in the one days - I have already told my partner that this Brit if Obama wins will be standing in the middle of our road waving the US flag in the middle of the night screaming hysterically - YES!!!!! - all our neighbors say they will party - that is how ready we are to get rid of the old regime.
One day samples in trackers are erratic. Yesterday Zogby gave McCain a slight lead, and today Obama is back up by 10. Yesterday R2000 had Obama 9 ahead, and today only - the best result for McCain in this tracking poll ever.
But Zogby actually is a lagging indicator, most of their daily sample was actually Friday, so it might be that this was a good day for Obama in general (NRO believes that Hallowen day polling is bad for the Republicans, for reasons I do not really buy).
http://www.dailykos.com/
75: Agree with seanT about the McCain campaign - a valiant effort against (probably!) impossible odds. But even leaving policies aside, Obama does seem much, much more presidential.
10/35 - FL & PA are the two areas where the republicans have run their most vicious hate campaigns, appealing to fear and, yes, hidden racism. It would be to their eternal shame if they went against a national trend and, as such, I think they will not do so. That may well mean Florida is lost with the national trend but McCain has had no lead in PA since April, it doesn’t matter how much bile and nudges to people about his ‘type’ they do, as long as the national figures stand they can only get the lead down to single figures by scaring uncommitted voters.
If they had the money they would be doing this nationally so this is a perfect chance to leave them humiliated and the tactic destroyed once and for all. Once someone governs differently to the fears that have been instilled then the tactic becomes the paper tiger that it always was.
I do think the McCain campaign was better than people give him credit for. The celebrity and the one ads, really hurt Obama as did the experience line. It’s just that since the pick of Palin imploded and leheman bros. failed it’s got difficult for him.
His campaign has suffered since then. The socialist stuff is silly and who the hell cares about Joe The Plumber?
Labour up to their usual tricks.
SCOTTISH SECRETARY Jim Murphy was last night under pressure to resign after he leaked sensitive financial information about a fresh bid for the troubled bank HBOS.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2464996.0.0.php
Apologies if already posted by Daily Kos Research 2000 tracker poll is 51/44.
Unchanged.
http://www.dailykos.com/
‘We will win this seat … not by a landslide but I am convinced we will win it’
GLENROTHES BY-ELECTION: First Minister Alex Salmond talks to Scottish Political Editor Tom Gordon
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2464998.0.we_will_win_this_seat_not_by_a_landslide_but_i_am_convinced_we_will_win_it.php
84. Nice post Gaz – I must say I too thought the socialist stuff was a mistake, given that numerous high profile fiscally conservative Republicans and mega-capitalists have endorsed Obama. Also the tax calculator was a clever toy for Obama, which allows people to check where they would be. It is very easy to use and shows that most people benefit from his tax cuts – only five per cent of households would actually see there taxes rise, it says.
85, Murphy’s a turd.
I’m sure the BBC will run nonstop leading stories trying to hound him out though.
82/83 - Maybe people haven’t really been following the campaign beneath the two main guys, look at robocalls, at local officials, and so on. Are these things representative of the national campaign? Well, they haven’t been stepped on so they must have tacit support from those above them.
I still think that Obama is going to suffer because he is black.
Added to that Obama’s inexperience like Palin’s and the successful campaign to tar Obama as Socialist, even a communist.
To turn the McCain supporters are not motivated hypothisis on its head. Many will vote GOP because they fear some of the issues, Colour, Socialist, Inexperience. Yes Palin offers inexperience but Palin seems to have melted into the background compared to say 4 weeks ago.
O/T: Amused by Peter Hain on BBC politics program - Obama means change, McCain means the past!
Seems to be an inverse of what he says about Brown/ Cameron!
84 - Did you see the funny clip of the McCain rally the other week when he thought Joe the Plumber was there?
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jCkGEHQVHK4
88. ‘m not gaz.
87. Very brave. I still think Labour will edge this - just.
Glenrothes has become quite crucial now for both sides - if not quite Stalingrad, then its the Battle of Kursk on the Scottish front. Victory for the SNP would confirm the National Socialist party is in retreat against the noble anti-fascist Allies of Cameron and Salmond.
A surprise victory for Brownshirt would confirm the Rebound Narrative.
What surprises me is how much both leaders have invested in this battle. It’s got personal. The PM has even sent his wife. Clearly they must both believe they can win; clearly they are getting conflicting info from their in-house polling, and their focus groups.
I think Labour should be pleased this by-election ain’t happening in England. They’d lose a similar seat to the Tories.
Any Obama backer still suffering nerves need only consider the latest Iowa poll from The Des Moines Register.
O 54
M 37
It’s consistent with other State polls and from a respected source which was extremely accurate in The Primaries.
The real significance though is that this was considered a Toss-up State at one time. It is inconceivable Obama could be anywhere near 17 points up in Iowa at this late stage and still lose the election. One can argue about the size of the win but not the winner.
The fat lady is about to walk on stage.
92 It did at least show the guy was genuinely a plumber, Alex. They never show up when you expect them.
New polls
PA Morning Call Tracker
Obama 52 McCain 45 (+1) (Obama has been at 52/53 for days now)
http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/all-election-president,0,155695.htmlpage
Selzer - Iowa (Selzer has sown a few points Democrat lean)
Obama 54 McCain 37
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081101/NEWS09/81101014/1056
Selzer - Michigan
Obama 51 McCain 37
http://www.freep.com/article/20081101/NEWS15/81101051/1215
Univ of Washington - Washington State
Obama 51 McCain 39
http://crosscut.com/blog/crosscut/18618/
Dan Jones - Utah
McCain 57 Obama 32
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,705259784,00.html
Monmouth - New Jersey
Obama 55 McCain 34
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081101/UPDATES01/81101009
Mason-Dixon - Virginia
Obama 47 McCain 44 (M-D have shown a roughly 3% Republican lean)
http://hamptonroads.com/2008/11/down-wire-va-still-too-close-call-poll-shows
SUSA - New Mexico
Obama 52 McCain 45
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=95bf6797-cf1e-44ee-8718-0b022d172dc7
Just checking for more…..
93. And ‘m not G….
63 Well done Mike and don’t ever be shy about referring to this call.
PtP - you are kidding, aren’t you?
re Glenrothes - if the Labour improvement in the polls is (as it seems) mainly due to disaffected Labourites hardening in the face of recession, would these really be likely to turn out for a by-election in the cold and dark in November? They might want to support a Labour government, but thats at a GE.
Can’t see Labour holding Glenrothes - SNP by four figures for me.
92 - McCain’s ‘My fellow prisoners’ has to be up there.
96 -
99, not sure if I agree with that margin, but how likely to turn out are SNP chaps? Are they rubbish like Labour, or excellent like the Tories?
The number of tactical voters will also be very important.
Two differing views of Ohio
Univ of Ohio
Obama 57 McCain 41
(12th to 23rd of October polled, old, old, old….)
Columbus Despatch
Obama 52 McCain 46
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/11/02/POLL02.ART_ART_11-02-08_A1_93BOK6G.html?sid=101
Datamar - Florida
Obama 47 McCain 47
http://www.datamar.net/pdf/flpg103108fri.pdf
SUSA - California
Obama 60 McCain 36
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1c4ececc-7c3c-490c-8f35-13341be85e1e
Univ of Wisconsin - Wisconsin
Obama 52 McCain 42
http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP27PressRelease1_pres08.pdf
Mason Dixon - Nevada
Obama 47 McCain 43
http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/november_2008_3_polls.html
Mason Dixon - Kentucky
McCAin 51 Obama 42
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081101/NEWS0106/811010467/1071
101 well the SNP have the dual advantage of being the chaser which is of significant advantage in a by-election but also a relatively successful devolved government. They also have a charismatic leader.
A Vote for the SNP comes from the following sources I would think..
Active SNP base, protest votes against the national government, Lib Dem and Conservative squeezees, Lib Dem and Conservative tactical voters, usual non-voting protesters agaisnt the recession or national government, desirers of change
A Vote for Labour comes from..
Active Labour base, protesters against SNP devolved government and/or council, unionist tactical voters (unlikely given by-election versus GE)
General swing against Labour since GE, SNP win at Holyrood etc….
SNP should be inspired to vote, there is very little reason for Labour to do so.
I think 4 figures, I suspect it might possible be 4 figures by some margain, but thats just me. Will be gutted and alarmed for GE prospects if Labour hang on.
105 me is for 104 Morris Dancer (numbers have changed)
87: It’s the first by-election I can remember where both sides are saying publicly exactly the same thing - they expect a narrow SNP victory. Given the expectations game, presumably the SNP really think they’ll get a decent majority, and Labour really thinks we might squeak it. I don’t have any more information than my posts a couple of days ago, so no reason to doubt the midpoint view, so 5/6 odds for the SNP are possibly marginally value.
One pointer could be the level of postal votes returned - what is it? I met quite a lot of Labour voters who had already sent off PVs (this was part of the ’sober duty’ approach that I was finding so often), a couple who had to be reminded and just one who had forgotten to apply. The SNP claim that lots of their supporters are upset because they applied too late (they cite this as evidence of enthusiasm), but I’m not sure how many they claim they got in successfully.
Is there any solid evidence whatever that raising expectations has any effect on turnout, by the way?
105. Some have suggested that Jim Murphy “leaking” privileged information about the HBOS deal will play badly for Labour in Glenrothes
Pennsylvania Morning Call 5 day tracker:
O 52, M 45.
So O lead now 7. O’s lead in this tracker over the last 4 days has gone 13, 10, 8 and now 7. So most recent polling must be much tighter than 7.
Repeat what I said at post 35 - I can’t imagine why Obama is not going to PA in the last 3 days.
This in the MOS…
Restrained Robinson
BBC political editor Nick Robinson was remarkably restrained when he interviewed Gordon Brown about the row with Iceland over its defunct banks. Robinson has now admitted he is among the thousands of savers with money frozen in Reykjavik. ‘I opened an Icesave account just before it crashed,’ says Robinson sheepishly. ‘Luckily the sum was in the low hundreds.’
105, actually I think the GE effect will be more limited. Brown has had an unjustified quantity of good press followed by nonsense about Osborne and a lack of proper press coverage of the economic situation (probably due to media fatigue).
Up to a GE there will be much worse coverage for Brown.
Some, particularly returning Labour voters, will now be considering Brown some sort of financial superhero. That’s their motivation.
109 His internal polls must be good, Mike. In any case, he does not have to win Pa. McCain does.
107, aye. Whichever party can fix the most postal votes could well win it. (Not that I’m accusing either party of that. Obviously).
Glenrothes betting
I’ve changed my position on the by election and am currently taking as much as I can on the SNP winning at 5/6.
Because of earlier bets on Labour at 2/1 I’m happily in the green whatever happens.
114, I remember charlie (not seen him for a while) putting £50 on Labour at similar or perhaps longer odds. I wonder if he’ll lay to go green either way.
101 Seriously, PfP, how many 50/1 winners have you backed - to proper money, I mean, not a couple of quid ew?
My nearest that I can recollect is £100 ew on this year’s Grand national winner at 16/1 (just missed the 20s) but the Obama bet, if it comes in, is well clear of that.
105. “Gutted and alarmed for GE prospects if Labour win Glenrothes” Calm down, that man!
This is a seat where Labour have a five figure majority - they had DOUBLE the SNP vote in the election (yes I know boundaries, or whatever, have changed since then, but still).
This is a seat that Labour MUST win if the Brown Bounce is to have any meaning or purchase - and not be a media chimera. But that’s all a win will mean - just that Labour have edged back a few points (enough for them to hold a Very Safe Seat in Brown’s Backyard).
A narrow Glenrothes win for Labour means absolutely zip for longterm GE prospects against the Tories in England - where the real battle will be fought.
Moreover, Labour have a better chance in Glenrothes than they would elsewhere because much if not all of their recent rebound, I believe, has come from SNP voters and LDs. SNP voters who are now warier of independence are looking to Labour (and the latest polls show independence is less popular than it was); LDs who are basically anti-Tory are returning to Labour cause of the Krunch.
The Tory vote, meanwhile, has remained very solid - around 40-45%. But the Tories are not a player in Glenrothes.
Ergo Labour will hold this seat, but only by a small margin, and it won’t mean much for the GE - but it WILL be important in sustaining the Brown comeback narrative and boosting Labour morale.
Conversely, a defeat would now be pretty nasty for the government.
110 - The fact that it was the 13 that was lost suggests that the dailies are stable in that tracker now, looking at the figures there appears to have been a sudden change, which looks gradual in the tracker.
BBC news-labour or liberal backing,sky news-heading towards brown and labour backing,channel 4 news -liberal supporting but would back the labour party,sun news paper-so far backing brown and the labour party ,mirror -propaganda machine of the labour party,daily mail-editor good mates with brown and so far the paper backing him ,times news paper-what can I say by they stories on politics-labour backing so far,telegraph news paper-use to be called torygraph but lately I hear people call it labourgraph ,the independent and guardian will back the labour party when it matters.This country as become a one party state with the media,thats why I give credit to David Cameron.
109: It’s the McCain campaign who are pushing the “everything comes down to Pennsylvania” line to the media - presumably they think it helps them to have the media talk about it. If they’re right, since the race is a zero-sum game, it would be in Obama’s interest not to feed the story. In which case he shouldn’t change his plans to go and campaign there.
He does not have to go to PA as the polls have given him a consistent edge - and you don’t see Mac running to Arizona to shore up his vote and it is even tighter - He has the EV’s he needs without PA - but as above he must have good news from there or else he would be campaigning there at the moment.
47. John B. “I remember reading Mike’s first posting about Obama - I hadn’t heard of him”
Who hadn’t you heard of then? Obama or Mike Smithson?
I hadn’t heard of Obama either. Unfortunately for me, neither had I heard of Mike Smithson.
After Tuesday, if there is any justice, Mike will be more famous than Barack Obama.
“Political Pundit tips US President at 50/1!”
I will be making a donation to the Smithson coffers on Wednesday in gratitude and recognition. I hope others will do the same.
In fact I think Mike should be ennobled for his services to political pundidtry. Lord Smithson of Bedford should take his seat, in another place, alongside his Lordship for Hartlepool and Foy.
Just as an aside; Every regular on this site seems to be holding winning antepost betting vouchers. We can’t all be winners can we? Who are we winning against? Particularly winning bets on the betting exchanges? Is there another site called Bettingpolitical.com where all the losers hang out and bemoan their lot, having backed Livingstone for Mayor, Labour in C and N and Hillary for POTUS?
Just wondered.
PPP blog (a Democrat pollster but they do have a blog which they give early info. out on) suggests that they see no concerns over PA.
“We’ve done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.”
They also say -
“I’m having a hard time detecting any overall trends in our last round of polls. In some states it seems like Obama is doing better, in some a little worse, in others about the same as both our recent polls and those of other organizations.
We’ll finish field work and start rolling them out late tonight. ”
Looks like Margin of Error stuff to me. The polls they are doing are MT, VA, NC, OH, FL, PA, IN, MO, GA and NV.
“Just as an aside; Every regular on this site seems to be holding winning antepost betting vouchers. We can’t all be winners can we? Who are we winning against? ”
The people who *don’t* read politicalbetting.com perhaps?
122 ‘Who are we winning against?’
Haven’t seen Test around much lately, StJohn. He claims not to bet but I have my doubts. Probably out there right now selling The Big Issue to help pay off his bookies.
Mason-Dixon - Colorado
Obama 49 McCain 44
http://www.denverpost.com/nationalpolitics/ci_10875870
Star Tribune - Minnesota
Obama 53 McCain 42
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/33699139.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUU
I have to agree with your article Mike. I think you have it spot on now and I’ve changed my positions accordingly.
I was sure that McCain was going to tighten the race in the final stretch but now I realise this won’t happen. I was betting under 350 EVs for Obama but I’ve now closed that position for a small loss. I’ve also closed my North Carolina position on McCain for a loss. I now expect Obama to win here. My McCain Indiana position is still open, purely because I don’t see Obama overturning a 20 point Bush margin of victory here. I’ve had a little speculative bet on Obama to win North Dakota.
My new ECV prediction is Obama 364, McCain 174.
I’ve lost my hedge on my huge green Obama position because of all this trading but I’m confident that it is completely safe now.
I’ve also put a lump on the SNP to win Glenrothes.
And I’ve laid Massa to win in Brazil. I think he might push it too hard and that’s when mistakes happen.
A busy morning of betting today!
Rasmussen - Maine
Obama 56 McCain 43
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election
I think the AA turnout will be so huge that NC, VA are totally gone for Obama. Georgia will also be very very close.
If turnout is a highly significant factor we can see Florida in the Obama column too. Ohio and Pa might be alot closer since the rural campaign by the GOP is far stronger.
125 - test is a woman. Probably a Tory candidate as well.
Indiana (repost with update)
Since 3 days, I’ve been very adamant that Obama will win Indiana ; the polls are as tight as a virgin’s, for sure*, but Obama has a huge advantage on the ground game. Huge. Mega-Bada. Monstrous.
*Yesterday, both ARG and R2K put Obama and McCain @ TIE…
And again, look @ this chart of Pollster; it really looks as if Obama is just about to break through…
http://www.pollster.com/polls/in/08-in-pres-ge-mvo.php
It’s a real good bet coze we can get something like 2.3 on Obama on betfair. I’ve put cash where my mouth is: I have actually 1400$ on it @ 2.22…
Now available @ 2.5… I’m gonna triple down!
130 - Yes, was thinking of making the same point. And, from the thread of a few months back, I think we have a pretty good idea of which seat.
Going off thread******* and talking about Africa.
Let us in the civilized democracies admit it, that Africa is in the main a basket case. It is full of Tribal Societies that reminds me of inter tribal fighting of the Scottish Clans circa 1650.
The sooner Britain, and indeed all advanced countries, left Africa alone to sort out their own troubles the better it will be for Africa and the rest of us.
Let us not be pontificating thus:
Mitchell: A stable Congo is needed for a stable Africa
09:25 | 02/11/2008
Andrew Mitchell, Shadow International Development Secretary
Andrew Marr Show, BBC1
Mr Mitchell said there would never be a stable Africa “unless you have a stable Congo” with a need for the “genocidal rump” from Rwanda to disperse.
“A conflict runs through Africa from the top right hand corner right to the bottom left.”
He said that to get aid into the Congo is: “Very difficult as there is practically no tarmac road in the Congo, difficult to get through at the best of the times.”
He believed David Miliband would suggest the requirement for the EU battle group to be deployed, where he said the Conservatives would agree this would be a sensible idea.
“There are a large number of EU countries with a large number of military forces that aren’t as over stretched as the UK at the moment.
“5m people have lost their lives in this conflict, the rump of the Rwandan genocidal regime -they are the root cause of this issues - it is addressing that issue that the international community has to do.”
10:15, BBC News
Later Mr Mitchell reiterated that the main need to remove the “heavily armed” genocidal rump from Rwanda.
“In the medium term we need look after the women and children that hadto flee from the the fighting in Goma to the jungles where they have no aidor shelter.
“I fear enormously for the region - we must deal with the symptoms but address the core of this problem rapidly.”
111 Morris Dancer, maybe but I think the motivation is less when it doesn’t matter - it is of no consequence to Labour supporters who wins this by-election, they still have their national government so will need (imo) extra impetus to actually turn out on a cold, dark November to vote in a ‘meaningless’ by-election. We’ll see but I just don’t think Labour will be energised enough by far.
115 SeanT, hehe OK a little ott from me but I do fear a Labour win will feed the media frenzy further.
I agree Mike : Obama will easily get at least 353 EVs…
134 meant 117 seant not 115 etc
George F. Will :
Tuesday night might be chaotic: Elections are government undertakings, so they are not expected to be well run, and judging by the multiplying warnings that voting arrangements might buckle under the weight of large turnouts, Election Day seems to have taken many state and local governments by surprise, yet again. Such dreary developments, anticipated with certainty, must be borne philosophically.
Ha!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103103358.html
I think the most Obama can get is 364. Worst case scenario for Obama is 301 if he can’t pick up NV, Florida or Ohio. (which imo are going to be the closest in terms of turnout and fewer AA’s vs White Old)
131 It’s certainly value at those odds, Philippe. I’m full to the brim so won’t be adding but if starting afresh, I’d be taking the 2.5.
80.
“Guido is having a go at Shaun Woodward. Whatever could he mean?”
Once a Tory, always a Tory?
back on topic, I was apalled at the Politics show’s choice of UK advocates for Obama and McCain. Howard and Hain are two of the slimiest political operators going, enough to make you want to ignore the whole thing or vote independent!
Ramussen on Indiana (October 30):
Although Indiana has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, it has clearly been a target for the Obama campaign this year. Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Democratic Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory over Hillary Clinton.
———->>>>>>>>>>It is possible that a strong turnout in that region of the state could do the same again in the general election.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election
Possible indeed. I’d rather say: very likely…
139 — I’m thinking about laying some Obama to bet more on it… But I’m getting nervous just thinking about it.
141 — Just to clarify Ramussen : Obama did not “almost” beat Clinton; he just did it! It was very close, but he did it.
130. yes.
138. Jaz, if Obama wins Indiana then he will likely be on at least 375 EVs.
138. Jaz, if Obama wins Indiana then he will likely be on at least 375 EVs.
146 — Indeed.
86.
“The socialist stuff is silly and who the hell cares about Joe The Plumber?”
Quite. I am amazed thoguh that Obama’s people did not clear the ‘illegal auntie’ stuff really early on (and either get her to leave or report her themselves) and indeed that the McCain negative campaigners did not find it and push it as an issue from much earlier on. It’s a very good proxy for “he is not really an american” if used properly. I think it will still do some damage but it’s probably too late to get any momentum.
I don’t think it’s mostly about the candidates. Of course that plays a role, but when it’s two days until the election, you are behind ~6 points, and the late swing appears to go to the other guy, it’s simply very hard to motivate yourself.
I remember fighting the 2005 German election when in the end my party was behind 7-9 points (had we known the pollsters were so wrong…). You go through the motions, but it’s simply very tough. It was different for the Dems in 2004 because they were really angry - and most importantly, they were only a few points behind.
Conversely, Democrats are paranoid about the election being stolen, fear the racist vote, know they can not only win but win a landslide with 60 Senate seats, and are generally excited about the candidate. As a consequence, I doubt there will be much “we did everything we had to do” complacency. I interpret the Cheney endorsement in the same way - the GOP must be really worried now that their supporters will stop making calls and their voters will stay at home. The polls say McCain is consolidating the base somewhat, but those polls do not predict turnout.
So I agree with Mike, Obama is likely to beat the poll average.
146. Last month the PB consensus predicted 300 - 359 EVs. Did we get it wrong?
116 I was only having a larf, PtP - honest.
Well done Mike and may all your freebie holidays on the back of this mega win be happy ones!
150 — Last month, in presidential politics, is as far as Neptune from my beach-side bungalow.
150. I think many people (including me) expected a late McCain surge. This hasn’t materialised and I’ve revised my Obama EV estimate upwards. Early voting figures also look very good for Obama.
So Alex Salmond is confident of winning Glenrothes. Nick Plamer thinks SNP are value at 5/6. An opinion poll appears to have the SNP and Labour within 3% of each other with 20% undecided. national opinion polls continue to show Labour struggling. Mike Smithson has changed his betting position and is now getting on as much as he can on the SNP.
Hmmm? What to do? I’ve waded in on the SNP. 5/6 available with Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. 4/5 with Sportingbet. These prices unlikely to last long.
Good to see Arnie finally endorsing McCain publicly - at a rally about as far away from California as you can get! Nice quips about heroes.
151 Knew that, PfP, but I was nevertheless curious to know what your best outsider bet ever was. Tiddly little fun bets don’t count. When did you last have a serious whack at double-digit odds?
Very few will have had a serious punt on a winning 50/1 shot. I never have….until Tuesday!
[PtP crosses fingers and puts prepares to don his brown trousers.]
Why is PA and other battleground-states tightening toward Mac?
The answer is quite simple:
“…if you live in a targeted state you are seeing McCain TV ads. Lots of them. For all the talk of the Obama advertising advantage, McCain is outspending Obama by 10 million in the last ten days of the campaign. That isn’t well known. And they are good spots on McCain’s public service, the economic message and in what the McCain camp calls “Joe the Biden”, which quotes Biden about testing a new president.”
“[if you live in a targeted state ] have gotten getting six or seven mailers that are extremely good negative pieces (covering all those issues that a lot of conservatives think McCain isn’t hitting hard enough on). You have also gotten six or seven taped phone calls from Republican leaders and ordinary citizens and the messages are good. You are also hearing radio ads about “congressional liberals.””
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
Yop.
“I think many people (including me) expected a late McCain surge.”
Stop drinking.
@157:
I’d say there’s a simpler reason it isn’t well-known: IT ISN’T TRUE.
158 - *But* that has come at the expense of employing people to oversee the GOTV operation. Maybe not the best way or using resources.
“extremely good negative pieces ”
That says it all, when I say I want these people humiliated I’m not kidding. This is the scare tactics beneath the radar that I was talking about which have shifted PA to single figures. I doubt that those who disagree with them will allow their state to be seen as being ruled by fear.
154 stjohn - I reached that view after reading Nick Palmer’s commentary on his recent visit. I can’t see the SNP price getting any bigger (in the absence of any adverse opinion poll), so I’m following you in.
St John (O/T)
Haven’t heard from you re this year’s Tote Ten To Follow comp. Not ineterested?
Not many places left now.
Today’s schedules
Ohio - Obama and Palin there all day (Bruce Springsteen with Obams this afternoon!)
Florida - Biden there all day, McCain there this evening.
Pennsylvania - McCain there this morning and afternoon.
Last version of my predictions, this time allocating any that are still too close to call.
Updated EV prediction
Definite Obama - Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), DC (3), Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Illinois (21), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), California (55), Washington (11), Oregon (7), Hawaii (4), RUNNING TOTAL 238 Delegates
Probable Obama - Pennsylvania (21), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5)
RUNNING TOTAL 273 Delegates
Leaning Obama – Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Nevada (5),
RUNNING TOTAL 338 Delegates
Marginal Obama - North Dakota (3), Florida (27)
RUNNING TOTAL 341 Delegates
Definite McCain - South Carolina (8), Texas (34), Alabama (9), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3)
RUNNING TOTAL 127 Delegates
Probable McCain - Georgia (15), West Virginia (5),
RUNNING TOTAL 147 Delegates
Leaning McCain – Arizona (10), Montana (3)
RUNNING TOTAL 160 Delegates
Marginal McCain - North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11)
RUNNING TOTAL 197 Delegates
MOVEMENT SINCE PREVIOUS STATE OF PLAY
TO OBAMA
New Hampshire (4) – Definite Obama from Probable Obama
Minnesota (10) – Definite Obama from Probable Obama
North Dakota (3) – Marginal Obama from Leaning McCain
Arizona (10) – Leaning McCain from Definite McCain
Montana (3) – Leaning McCain from Probable McCain
Indiana (11) – Marginal McCain from Leaning McCain
TO MCCAIN
West Virginia (5) – Probable McCain from Too Close to Call
Missouri (11) – Marginal McCain from Leaning Obama
North Carolina (15) – Marginal McCain from Too Close to Call
Florida (27) – Marginal Obama from Leaning Obama
Pennsylvania (21) – Probable Obama from Definite Obama
Obama gains particularly across the North, McCain gains among Appalachian states (I’ve included a presumption of differing response in Appalachian states, based on behaviour in primaries)
RESULT
Obama 341 EV, McCain 197 EV,
163 Ah, but where is Joe The Plumber?
165 - on weekend callout
160. Ah - Paul’s back to full on huffing and puffing mode. A welcome return to form.
167 Don’t be shy, Runnymede! Let’s have your version.
165.
“where is Joe The Plumber?”
Gone over to Mrs Obama who’s paid him more to come in early?
Rasmussen NC
Obama 50
McCain 48
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
133
Andrew Mitchell has a conflict of interest as International Development secretary.
His office recieves funding from ‘Cluff Gold’ who have mining interests and contracts in the DRC and surrounding states.
Competition over minerals and the renogotiation of old contracts is a key driver in the ongoing crises in the congo.
In ‘yachtgate ‘ neither Osborne nor Mandelson recieved cash from Deripaska.
The initilal story about Mitchell recieving money from Cluff was months ago and only as a footnote in stories about the tory front bench that focussed on Letwin,Hague,Grieve and Duncan.
A brief google on ‘Cluff Gold’ brings up the DRC connections but there was also no mention of west african states in the news back then so it probably didn’t seem as relevant as now.
162. Peter. Having just watched Tidal Bay trot up at Carlisle we need to keep this one on side.
I will message you early this week with some thoughts on who, apart from Barbers Shop, we should include.
UkPaul — I’m surprised that you’re giving NC to McCain.
Obama is leading there on both 538.com’s and pollster’s projections.
171. He isn’t the International Development Secretary. If and when he becomes so, you might have a point.
160 — These are indeed “tactics beneath the radar”.
168 - If you can’t treat the way that the people who rule over us as something serious enough to get angry about and to want to see changed then I pity you.
I disagree with pretty much everything you say and believe as you know but at least some right wing posters show some passion in their beliefs.
173 Yes, I’m with UKPaul all the way except for N. Carolina. It’s shown a small but stable lead throughout and early polling looks very good for The One.
174 - Your wallet may be even more surprised that I give Indiana to McCain! Seriously, I wouldn’t bet on Obama taking Indiana if I was you (but, then again, I’m not you so it’s your call!)
172 Thanks Cheltboy.
So we think Tidal Bay should come in and Barbers Shop is a snip.
Let me know if anything else catches your eye.
Had a look at Betfair’s US state odds - no time to check other markets. ND looks interesting. Acccording to Pollster, Obama is slightly ahead, yet you can get 2.92 on him on Betfair. Contrast with NC, where Obama is strong favourite on Betfair yet his poll lead is much the same or slightly less. I presume this is because punters are counting on a massive AA vote for Obama in NC, but it may be better to go with the polls. If you think Obama is surging then MT looks good too. If you think McCain will put on a last-minute spurt, then FL looks good - he’s still very competitive there and the hardcore Cuban exile vote should be solid high-turnout for him.
176. Oh there’s a big difference between passionate belief and huffing and puffing though, isn’t there?
171.
“In ‘yachtgate ‘ neither Osborne nor Mandelson recieved cash from Deripaska.”
Nobody other than a handful of political geeks is at all bothered about that one way or another. What irks about 95 per cent of the British public is that these two over-rich Tories just cannot bring themselves to saying ‘no’ to hobknobbing with even more dubious ’super-rich in luxurious surroundings at a time when the rest of us are either suffering or worrying about suffering.
178 — Thanks for the advice, Mista Paul.
It’s a gamble, I know; but hey, I love to gamble!
I’ve hedge it however : as for now, the money I’m risking on Obama taking Indiana is less that 15% of the profit I’ll make with The Messiah’s Glorious Victory over the shameful Politics of Fear.
Electoral-vote.com has a very interesting point regarding exit polls: if Democrats have voted early disproportionally, there will be relatively fewer of them going to the polls on Tuesday. The exit polls may overstate the Republicans for once. Or at least be less pro-Obama than many expect after 2004. Late betting opportunity?
Is this the end if ID Cards?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5065795.ece
182 - Huffing and puffing is what the intellectually detached imagine they are seeing, those with a modicum of emotional intelligence know otherwise.
Then of course, there are those who just replace one with the other because they are too lazy to explain their opposition to ideas and who imagine that ad hominem attacks are a satisfactory replacement.
So why do you think that the tactics being used under the radar in PA are laudable? A few sentences will do.
180 Good thinking MP Nick.
I’d advice punters to be cautious about ND, however, for 538.com gives Mac 74% chance of winning it.
It’s true, however, that Pollster.com favors Obama there:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nd/08-nd-pres-ge-mvo.php
186. Politics is a grubby business Paul, and all sides engage in the black arts. Your sanctimonious partisanship over this is laughable, and certainly doesn’t demonstrate ‘intelligence’ either emotional or otherwise.
Mason-Dixon Polls.
Note that Mason-Dixon have had around a 3% Republican lean this time, they may be the ones who are right but they are at the fringe of where the polls have been.
Ohio
McCain 47 (+1) Obama 45 (nc)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html
North Carolina
McCain 49 (+2) Obama 46 (-1)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html
@180 (Nick Palmer). I remember your comment a few days ago. You had German during high school? I always have the deepest respect for people who learn my language… all those illogical articles alone would probably keep me from learning any of it if I didn’t speak it already.
I also have a question, having recently joined the Labour Students organization, I’m still not sure what my status as a foreign national actually is. Am I a member of the party as well, an associated member? I guess I’m not a very common case, but I thought perhaps you happen to know the answer.
164. ukpaul - think you’ve called it right (Bang in the spread, incidentally, showing that there’s not so much value there now - remember when Obama was buyable at 272?) Jack’s ARSE is too high - I wish it to be true, but I still worry about Florida…
Madison-Dixon uses very small samples, less than 700.
189. OMG. I’m panicing again… Could it slip away at the last min?
185 If Only. Definately the intelligent thing to do from Labour’s electoral point of view would be to stop building pointless expensive databases, but I am certain we don’t know part of the story, be it either because the EU are pressuring Labour(who are basically EU poodles) to get the British people to accept the European style of Authoritarian government but with added 21st century surveillance technologies. Or perhaps the companies that are producing the IT projects are big Labour donors.
Whatever the reason the only way to stop the erosion of freedoms will be to vote against Labour.
189 - I don’t believe it has to be that way, and If you think there’s some sort of equivalence between the Obama and McCain campaigns then you haven’t been paying close attention. Some Obama surrogates have gone way over the line too (as well as the McCain ones, not least the false attack girl) but you can set an example from the centre.
I said the same about Tom Watson’s rubbish and the lib dem campaign in Bromley, to take two examples, so it’s hardly partisan. Sanctimonious maybe but I’d prefer to be that than impious.
Anyway, “You’re all Jo The Plumber. Give yourselves a round of applause…”
189 - The margin of error of both polls is 4.
Everyone seems to be quoting post numbers that are off by one on my computer, what happened?
197. (Or is it?) That happened to me the other day…. I thought it was because I’d had too much to drink…
Speaking of polls, this is an interesting article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103103044.html
Oh, and a comment from Palin that may sound quite desperate:
http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/10/31/help-help-im-being-repressed-2/
Rasmussen National
Obama 51
McCain 46
No change
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
More Palin Droneing
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=-9UBx8-j8Nc&eurl
And if you’re interested in Bazooka Joe the guy with the big plumbing:
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00012/24_10_2008_-_08_44_4_12486a.JPG
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/52165/Sarah-Palin-in-double-trouble.html
Exciting news from ladbrokes HQ.
We have a Glenrothes Tricast available!
2/1 SNP-Lab-Cons
5/2 SNP-Lab-LD
11/4 Lab-SNP-Cons
10/3 Lab-SNP-LD
Should be able to link from pb.
McCain’s closing in the final hours, no doubt about it.
203. Interesting. Fair play for the imaginative approach. I know how the bookies love Tricasts, however! (If forced, I’d go for the 11/4 on Lab-SNP-Con). But, sorry Shadsy, I’d rather just lay the SNP on Betfair, which I did at 1.5-ish…
117.”A narrow Glenrothes win for Labour means absolutely zip for longterm GE prospects against the Tories in England - where the real battle will be fought.”
I can’t agree. We’ve all bukkake’d over that worn out old slattern ‘narrative’ enough to how important it is. Notwithstanding the numbers if Laba’ath hang on to Glenrothes it reinforces the change and recovery story. It has resonance and importantance beyond one small rainswept corner of the country filled with dole addicted porridge chompers.
To break my silence on the US election. I thought this was very funny from Saturday night Live and Mccain
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/11/john-mccain-and.html
I Frankly am not too fussed who wins in the US I think both candidates would be ok from the UK’s point of view and that the special relationship is a load of nonsense when it comes to anything meaningful.
I was not around for Mikes prescience on Obama (pretty amazing talent spot) and don’t have a bet on.
if I were Mccain over the next couple of days I would remind people of Obamas preacher that hates America as often as possible, and if I were Obama I would remind people of Mccains apparent gamesmanship during the banking crisis.
These are the two things that stick in my head about this election from a not that interested point of view.
206. Agree, Lab to win Glen and the Cons to get a majority of 30-50+ at the next election…
207. He’ll just keep banging on about “spreading the wealth around” - and it’s working…
162. PtP. I emailed you from wintry Suffolk durint the week if you recall? I said put me down for £50. Will settle up next week.
My best ever long shot was Lammtarra to win the Derby. I backed him three times, at 33/1, 40/1 and 33/1. Collected over £5,000 and that was quite a few years ago.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8da4a686-5e24-4c6a-8fd5-8c9ba979eff0
SUSA - Pennsylvania
Obama 51 McCain 44
So McCain throwing the kitchen sink there seems to have got him as far as a 7% loss on average (as per RCP).
195. Oh Paul please stop deluding yourself. There is no moral dimesnion whatever to this election.
210. I had High Rise for the Derby at 40/1 for £50. But I’ve learned many lessons about ante-post betting over the years - I now quite like the idea that my runners will actually run!!
212. Er, yes there are…
213. Nice bet London. My other two cracking bets were McCain to win Pennsylvania in the 2008 POTUS Firewall market at 33/1 and Aston Villa to win the Premiership in 08/09 at 329/1.
210 Whoops! Senior moment there, StJohn.
Lammtarra definitely counts. How did you get that? Had it ever raced before the Derby?
215. lol!
Bad news for Lewis Hamilton - as if having clowns to the right of him and jokers behind him on the starting grid, and predicted rain to screw up his strategy, wasn’t bad enough - but Gordon Brown has just sent him a good luck message. True, he’s not there in person to jinx him, but it’s bad enough.
Get your money on Massa to win the title. I know I have…
This wasn’t a bad opinion either.
“Well OK then. No one got in before me. Prediction for the year 2008.
US Presidential election. Obama v McCain. Winner. President Barack Obama.
God bless America!”
by stjohn January 1st, 2008 at 2:23 am.
The always useful pollster daily update, key point is not to fixate on one poll or pollster but to look at the overall trends.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_sund_2.php
Their tipping point state is now Colorado, with Obama 7.1% ahead on average polling.
218. Raining in Brazil right now according to BBC news
I did cop a 100/1 once - Craig Bellamy to score against Barcelona and celebrate with a mock golf swing!
And I nearly tipped both an 18/1 and a 55/1 winner on this site in last year’s CL final - Makelele first card (won) and Lampard to score twice (just the one, sadly).
My best big-odds antepost positions at the moment are the 50/1 I have on Scottish independence by 2017 (looking a bit less likely right now), and a mixture of 66/1 and 50/1 that Laura Robson (remember her?) wins Wimbledon by 2021/2020 respectively.
222. Shadsy’d love you!
218 He did that last year and Hamiltons gearbox exploded. I am just hoping that gormless Gordons sphere of bad luck can’t stretch across three continents.
If I see 342 on Sporting’s EC votes, I’m going in…
211/Mike L etc. Are people fretting about the PA *lead* ignoring an old Smithsonian Law that you should look not at the lead but the *share* (especially in the past few days).
To me it seems like McCain is mopping up the tiny handful of remaining undecideds about 2-1 as I think everyone expected, which has caused the lead to narrow but Obama’s share to remain 51-52 for ages?
re 203. The Glenrothes tricasts are here
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/by-elections/glenrothes/glenrothes-tricast
Nice market Shadsy.
I fancy the 2/1 favourite - SNP/LAB/CON
216. PtP. Lammtarra raced once as a two year old and won impressively. That’s when I first backed him. He was trained by Alex Scott but was bought out of his satble by Godolphin and spent the summer in Dubai, where he caught pneumonia and nearly died I believe. Sadly Alex Scott did die soon after losing the horse. He was shot by an aggrieved stablehand.
The main reason I backed him was that I loved his breeding. By Nijinsky out of Snow Bride, who won the Oaks on a disqualification. I then backed Shaamit the following year, at 16/1. The Derby used to be my best race but it hasn’t been so good to me recently. This may not be a surprise to followers of St.John’s Occasional Horseracing Tip Service.
Oh, and I had £10 on Butler’s Cabin at 40/1 to win his race at Cheltenham the season before last.
O/T Nice point for Forest at Derby today in a typically farcial crazy finish.
190 - Hi Friedrich - I lived for 18 years in Basel, Switzerland, so learned German in order to be able to take part in local life. I joined the Social Democrats and the local trade union and ended up on the SD cantonal economic policy commission. But I doubt if my German has ever been as good as your English.
You’re as much a party member as Gordon Brown or me (welcome!). You can vote in European and local elections, of course - I think you can even stand for election in either. The only thing you can’t do is vote in GEs.
Back on topic, the story about McCain having $20m more to spend this week seems to be true. Here’s the Obama campaign on the subject (admittedly in the context of “send us money!”):
“This weekend the McCain campaign said they would outspend us by $10 million in the final days. This is on top of recent news that, as of October 15th, our opponents had $20 million more in the bank than our campaign and the DNC combined.
We knew the McCain campaign was saving its resources for a last-minute blitz, and now we know just how much they’ll pour into it.”
229. Benbobjim. That’s good to hear. I’m a seller of Derby on the spread, following the advice of that esteemed pundit, Peter from Putney.
Hotline/Diageo
Obama 50 (-1) McCain 45 (+1)
They started to allocate non-responders yesterday.
http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/
232. This race certainly appears to be tightening!
231. Good call. Derby were always way over. Even the useles Mike Holden on bettingzone.com backed Forest this time….
233. It’s going to be a long night…
231. I’m joyous because I’m a Forest boy and was expecting a (heavy) defeat.
The end was a complete show. Our lad McGugan sent off after winning the ball albeit in a tough challenge. They then got a goal disallowed because the referee had called for a penalty. They then missed the penalty after our goalie made a superb save. They then scored in the 93rd minute but it was chalked off for pushing. Seemed harsh in all fairness but evened things out after our sending off. In the end 1-1 was a fair result despite the farcical refereeing.
234. London. My bet is on Derby’s season points total, not today’s match specifically.
Ricardo - read my link from pollster in 221, it will stop you fretting about every small move up and down!
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_sund_2.php
First, Mike, my congratulations on your early 50/1 bet on Obama. A coup by any standards.
That said, I disagree completely about the landslide. I just don’t see it. My two key reasons?
1. Issues with the sampling, size and methodology of many of the polls. (Mainly, and not coincidentally, the ones giving the largest Obama leads.) To adapt your own line about the best UK polls being those which show Labour doing worst, I think the most accurate here are the ones which show the race tight.
2. My own feel for middle America where - unusually for an outsider - I have spent more time than the coasts. In my opinion, outsiders too easily underestimate the core conservatism of the country’s heartlands.
I said a couple of days ago I put Obama’s chance of victory as 65%. I’m sticking to that. In other words, I think McCain still has a one in three shot.
Why? The final polls…
American Res. Group Obama +9.0
Suffolk/WHDH Obama +5.0
Rasmussen Obama +7.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby Obama +13.0
CBS News Obama +7.0
Marist Obama +8.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH Obama +9.0
Conclusive right?
Only those polls are the final numbers before the Democratic primary in New Hampshire…where Hillary Clinton won by 2.6 points.
I have a deja vu about this; a deja vu of the 1992 election this side of the pond.
237. Hmmm. I think the make-up may be inside the spread…
239. Certainly New Hampshire looks like value for an upset, as discussed yesterday.
238. Cheers. It’s just that I’ve got my maximum betting bank on Obama, but - more importantly than that - I’ve got a load of Kennedy-esque emotion on him winning, too!
241. No way. NH solid Obama (53 v 41)… That’s the least of my worries…
240. I sold at 70.5 I think.
242. Unwise to mix betting with emotion.
239. for every new hampshire i could name 10 states where he pollsters got the winner correct
Quentin Davis that Paragon of virtue and competence and honesty apparently wants to argue with the ex-commander of the SAS in Afghanistan. Quentin says the MOD cannot find the major’s letters complaining about wrong equipment(very convenient) and that apparently calling the MOD cavalier over getting equipment to Afghanistan is a travesty of reality.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1082432/Minister-blasts-claim-British-troops-given-proper-equipment-travesty-reality.html
The travesty of reality is that Quentin is a minister. Cameron knew he was a talentless waste of space but Brown has to reward the toady, it is a shame (but as expected) that he decided to do it somewhere so important, but obviously not to Labour.
245. I know… It’s cost me dearly in the past.
I was criticised - rightly - the other day for saying that John McCain’s like Michael Foot. Actually, everyone was right - Michael Foot was much better than John McCain - and he still went down to catostophic defeat. Maybe I would be better saying that John McCain’s like Frank Spencer: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=sVPq6WVlpo8
244. Hmm. You’d have been well happy at the start of the season, then. And it still looks pretty low-risk.
PtP did you get that list of possible nags for the Ten to Follow ok?
Remarkably enough my biggest ever priced winner emerged during this election as well, Hillary at various odds over 100-1 in the night of the NH primary. This replaced another huge price at the top of the tree, a French nag called Arcangues many years back. The main difference this time was the amount of money that I had to play with.
The primaries were an absolute goldmine and are paying for a very nice winter holiday in said country in a few weeks time.
Oh God, Brown has just been on the news gushing about Lewis Hamilton. That ghoul really is beyond belief.
251. its not a big deal Chris, other than Gordo’s scud potential. Politicians have forever been doing this kind of thing, Cameron apparently sent little Lewis a letter recently.
re 239. I agree - the polls got it wrong in the New Hampshire Democratic party primary.
But polling a primary with relatively low turnouts where voters can switch parties is a very different proposition from a general election. Hillary got it because so many women came out to vote for her resulting in a massive gender imbalance amongst those voting.
In an election where turnout could be in the 65-70% region the scope for that level of distortion is much reduced.
251.
“That ghoul really is beyond belief.”
Have you just noticed that Mr Hamilton is one of the ‘undead’?
Gordon has been chatting with terrorists.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7704968.stm
Perhaps the Daily Mash is right.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/government-takes-60%25-stake-in-al%11qaeda-200810141322/
CNN National Poll
Obama: 53% (+2)
McCain: 46% (nc)
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/02/obama-seven-points-ahead-in-cnns-final-poll/
With third parties
Obama: 51 (+2)
McCain: 43 (nc)
Others: 4 (-1)
More money today for McCain. Despite our host’s supreme confidence, we have had to shorten him to 5/1 from 6/1.
Matthew Engel will be doing a piece in the Racing Post tomorrow - I think he might be mulling over our Next Secretary Of State market among others. The Post will also be doing a round up on Tuesday of all of the opportunities available.
Rasmussen - Illinois
Obama 60
McCain 38
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election
258 - Having said you were worried about your losses, I presume that makes you very happy that McCain is taking so much money?
257. theres a rumour that a Republican figure may get the Secretary of State post. No idea why an Obama presidency would need or desire to do this other than if the person is clearly the best for the job.
Labour recruits another Tory oligarch Racketeer?
“A MILLIONAIRE former Tory who left his wife for a teenage badminton champ has defected to Labour.
Milk magnate David Shaw is Labour’s candidate for East Ayrshire Council’s Ballochmyle ward by-election.
Shaw, 58, ex-chairman of South Ayrshire Conservatives, lives with Lynn McMillan, who was 19 when he left wife Jean for her two years ago.
He still runs his Sorn Milk business with Jean, 60.
He said: “I’m really excited about running for councillor. I have the contacts and skills to do the best possible job for the people of this area.”"
Asked how he gets to his Mediterranean yacht for important meetings with Russians he said : “I use the Glasgow Shuttle, cock.”
Actually, he didn’t say those last few words. Maybe Russell Brand did?
258 - Could be a shock upset on the night, that one.
255.
“Gordon has been chatting with terrorists. ”
Never off the phone to the Israeli government, I hear.
From the SNP website.
Might cause a tightening of their odds to take Glenrothes
SNP MSP Tricia Marwick today said even Labour know their party is out of touch as Sunday newspapers reported the detailed minutes of internal Labour party discussions.
Speaking from the SNP campaign in Markinch Central Fife MSP Ms Marwick said;
“Even Labour Cllrs think Labour is out of touch with nothing to offer people in Scotland.
“In contrast the SNP is on your side, making the right decisions for people in Glenrothes and across Scotland.
“Where the SNP has cut prescription charges, frozen the council tax and lifted the tolls on the bridge Labour has failed people in Fife.
“These minutes show senior members of the local Labour party at odds with the UK Government of Gordon Brown over changes to incapacity benefit, over his meetings with Mrs Thatcher and pin pointing the lack of leadership for Labour in Scotland.
“After reading these reports it’s clear why Labour voters across the constituency are switching to the SNP.
“With a vote for the SNP demanding lower bills this winter and real action to bring the price of energy down the SNP is the only party on your side in Glenrothes.”
1. Extracts from minutes of a Labour party meeting held in August 2008
Cllr Iain Chrichton “We’re getting rid of incapacity benefit - why? The Gordon Brown photo with Thatcher was a big mistake.”
Cllr Alex Rowley - election agent to Gordon Brown “The party in Fife is not geared up for modern campaigning.”
A Labour activist is quoted saying; “Leadership in Scotland is lacking in the party.”
257. 5/1. Still insurance….
265. You temptress, Shadsy……
266. Well, ok, I’ll just put more on Obama at better odds, then. But… my maximum bank’s already on so can’t…..
255.
Did you catch This Week a couple of weeks back when Andrew Neil shamelessly lifted that article for his opening joke.
Albuquerque Journal - New Mexico
Obama 51 McCain 43
http://kob.com/article/stories/S643597.shtml?cat=500
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7704896.stm
Labour’s tried and tested tactic to shift blame for them preferring Scottish jobs to Yorkshire jobs, blame the private sector.
Linda Riordan Labour MP said: “Do these bidders have any concern at all about protecting jobs in Halifax and across Yorkshire? I would doubt that very much.”
267 Plagiarism is a form of flattery I suppose. Whoever is producing the Daily Mash deserves a wider audience, day in day out I Laugh out Loud at their articles. The BBC might not be the best place for them currently though.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2WqsrxxJYRo&refer=home
This, you just have to like…….
270 Indeed I think the Daily Mash are aware of their current problem.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/latest-national-mood-to-be-unveiled-200810311365/
After being within 4 ECVs of each other yesterday, 538.com goes 344 for Obama, RCP goes 353 and electoral-vote.com goes 364.
271 This has loads of potential for corruption. Mandelson and Brown are involved something fishy is occurring. I hope the opposition go through whatever comes out of this with fine tooth combs.
274. I like 344 or below, but want it to be higher
Just been reminded of an amusing one on the BBC -
Democratic voters are advised to vote on November the 5th where as GOP are advised to vote on November the 4th!
Doesn’t say alot for the voters if they take it in!
Something amusing whilst counting your winnings !
Play and share the funniest political game ever!
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Obamas-Super-KO/32594531870
It starts by punching Sarah Palin while she talks smack.
260. Arnie Vinick?!
247
I just saw the same news about that nasty piece of sh*t Quentin Davis deciding that soldiers getting killed because they didn’t have the right equipment was all the fault of the commanders on the ground.
IT seems he doesn’t have the first idea of what conditions are really like out there. I saw in the original interview that the SAS major said that he and his NCOs spent all their time trying to find alternative ways to get their troops into the field including hitching lifts with regular troops in better armoured veghicles or even walking. The rational being that the Snatch landrovers are so poorly suited to the terrain that they have to follow the main roads and are therefore perfect targets for attack whereas men on foot are no worse off for protection but at least have the ability to travel off the main routes and so avoid possible IDEs.
Davis’s comments are shameful and if he had any honour or conscience at all he would resign.
279. To be fair the armed forces, much like farmers, are in a perpetual state of self-declared crisis so it’s hard to take them completely seriously.
279. A quick look at his background would confirm that neither ‘honour’ nor ‘conscience’ are obviously things one would associate with the man.
280. Farmers don’t get killed doing their job. And this issue is over a very specific problem which has been known about for years and not addressed until too late. The govt can’t take your cavalier attitude to their complaints as they are theones ordering them to risk their lives.
280. Labour have under-resoursed and over used the armed forces.
No one believes Labour on defence and QD has no credibility what so ever. QD is a useless pompus fool. You only have to kool at QD’s statements over the years on Labour economic policy to understand this.
QD surely is a prime candidate for target practice!
132.”130 - Yes, was thinking of making the same point. And, from the thread of a few months back, I think we have a pretty good idea of which seat.”
IBD/TIPP trying their best, shame they have such a small sample size and dodgy internals. Obama 46.7 (-1.2), McCain 44.6 (+1.2)
If Gallup and Rasmussen showed this as a two point race then you’d take notice.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
SUSA - Virginia (they’re a bit erratic but this is in MoE from teh average)
Obama 50 McCain 46
247&279.I saw the performance on the news last night by Quentin Davies, I was pretty much open mouthed with anger and disgust! Especially as we head towards remembrance day. His line of attack in the MoS is pretty nasty, but oh so predictable from this government.
He is now attempting to trash that soldier’s reputation, and why, because he dared to speak out on what we all know is the bl**dy truth! I note that neither Quentin or the newsreader interviewing mentioned the alarming rise in the number of casualties and deaths over the last year while he whittered on about these criticisms being true 3/4 years ago rather than now.
Isn’t it wonderful to see this government spin operation trying to smear the one organisation that is the most restricted in its ability to stand up and criticise the government’s performance in the MOD?
They cannot strike or have their own trade Union, only last year politicians were alarmed when a Senior military figure was forced publicly to try get the government to understand that the on the ground armed forces were at breaking point.
The British Legion has been forced to launch an appeal to break the broken Military Covenant.
Gone are the days when some Minister’s would fight with honour and passion for their department and the people they represent. That has been a stark contrast to some politicians from a bygone era.
KissAss Polling —–BBC
Obama 100
McCain 0
280. Because they have have a legal and moral obligation to carry on without adequate resources, the politicians just chop again.
This will only change when a politician visits the front line and gets a Sadat parade, I’m afraid. Do you think we could get Davis to visit the unit in question?
286. If you re-read this post while listening to Bruch’s Violin Concerto No.2 in D Minor it really comes alive.
289
when you make posts like this it is impossible to take you seriously either.
257 More money today for McCain. Despite our host’s supreme confidence, we have had to shorten him to 5/1 from 6/1.
Bully for Ladbrokes if they can find punters prepared to accept their 5/1 odds against McCain becoming POTUS, when other bookies are offering 6/1 and Betfair has plenty available at 7/1+.
289.I doubt that was played at the memorial service for the dead last week in Stirling. Some of my extended family were there to remember their loved one who died last year!
“286. If you re-read this post while listening to Bruch’s Violin Concerto No.2 in D Minor it really comes alive.”
Maybe Mike should give us a choice of listening depending on the thread, failing that, how about being able to link to a theme tune to herald our posts in the manner of a boxer entering the ring?
290. Either a ZanuLabour astro-turfer (Bunker defence squad) or a troll
293. I didn’t think you are a great military fan hence your support for Obama!
Gallup
Registered Voters
Obama 52 (nc) McCain 41 (nc)
Likely Voter - New (the model Gallup suggest is the one to follow)
Obama 52 (nc) McCain 43 (+1)
Likely Voter - Old
Obama 51 (-1) McCain 43 (+1)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Outpace-McCain.aspx
286 What is quite amusing though is it must really stick in the craw of Labour MPs who have been loyal for many years to be passed over for someone like Davies. Oh well ends justify the means comrades.
Regarding the actual issue nobody takes Davies remotely seriously.
I dont think any of this was in Nick Palmer’s report on Glenrothes…..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3367447/Alex-Salmond-predicts-victory-in-Glenrothes-by-election-as-leaked-minutes-expose-Labour-problems.html
Everyone knows the ultimate boxing entry song is Boxer by Morrissey.
It opens with the lines ‘losing in front of your home crowd….’
289. Maybe there’s another website for you?
http://www.bebo.com/
Arizona seems to be getting very tight.Good old Daily Koz has it down to one, well they would wouldn’t they but all others in the 5 or less range.
Does it have 10 electoral votes. Old Mackee needs to shore that up.
Heard the latest Robot call from the Republicans? Dear Hilary saying he is experienced and Obama aint (something from the primary campaign). No doubt she will come back tomorrow with one against him, something he said that says McCain is too liberal for the Republican right.
The national polls indicate a win for Obama, but his big majorities in the populas Democrat states suggest the Electoral College may be much tighter than some are predicting from the polls.
My estimate is Obama needs at least 52% of the national vote to be sure of a majority, he may need 53
Labour is within “striking distance” of victory after all but clawing back a SNP lead of three-to-four thousand votes.
Labour are nuts if they think they can pull it off being that much behind!
No doubt Brown will claim the credit for keeping the SNP majority below 5,000! Actually if the SNP got a majority above 5,000 that would be mortal for Brown would it not?
I would like Nick Palmer’s comments on that if I may?
I don’t want to appear a sore loser (and it should be pointed out that the election is not over) but Obama has been very, very lucky.
To a certain extent Obama’s victory was down to Clinton’s inability to control her staff, choosing inevitably, rather than experience, as her main theme until it was too late, Bill Clinton’s gaffe in South Carolina, passively letting Obama win a string of primaries in February, not exploiting Wrightgate, the stupid pander on petrol tax before Indiana which backfired and McCain making the most stupid and counterproductive running mate selection in political history (and then not ditching Palin when the financial crisis gave him the chance).
This is to say nothing of Gore and/or Warner deciding not to enter the contest, Edwards moving too far to the left (and failing to control little Edwards) and Biden and Richardson failing to catch fire.
Congratulations on making a winning bet (and proving me wrong) 50/1 was good value in 2005, but a fair price at the time would have been something like 20/1 (a similar thing can be said about my 25/1 on McCain winning the GOP nomination last September).
302
Martin, this meeting was before the sitting MP died, but nevertheless its a disheartening minute.
People have often said they could not imagine Palin as VP but I cannot imagine Biden as VP either! I can imagine Obama & McCain as president but of the two McCain has more of a presidential air about him.
In some senses the VP is as important for Obama as it is McCain (Obvious age) as Obama is more likely to suffer from indigiounous assination plots (Hard to detect i.e. Rogue secret service guard?) that mcCain will not.
My feeling is undecideds are going to break for McCain big style and i was struck by one white working man’s reply to his decision to vote on the Barack Obama corporation (BBC), he was evasive and saying it was a last minute decision.
279. Quentin Davies, the Lord Haw-Haw of modern British politics.
My contempt for lefties is fairly profound, but I reserve a special circle of Hell for fat, pompous, dwarf-felching europhile tra1tors like Quisling Davies.
Ugh. He should just shoot himself, then have his family grind his gravestone into dust, and sow his grave with quicklime. Save us all the bother.
304. Sorry didn’t read to the bottom!
301 Based on 2 or 3 us polling sites,I would say Obama has at least 310 ECVs ‘in the bag’,with another c.50 very likely
A great article on the US polls from the polling director of the Washington Post -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103103044_2.html?sid=ST2008110101102&s_pos=
re 306- Sean - he speaks highly of you too.
306
Sean T Don’t pull any punches, call it as you see it
300, 293 ,286. I’m scrolling down the PB pages with ‘Pjaano’ by Eric Prydz pumping out of the speakers. I didn’t know that we were meant to read in reverential silence, and I don’t think it makes me a teenager either! For my money there are a few people on here who take themselves a little bit too seriously. On topic, well done Mike for your insightful bet on Obama and I hope that you enjoy your winnings on Wednesday morning.
305.
To be fair, if I had to chose one Democratic candidate who I would have voted for it would have been Joe Biden (or Hillary in the later primaries).
313.
I mean out of the Democratic candidates (and if I had been eligable to vote!).
306 Dwarf-felching LOLOLOLOL :LOL: :LOL:
306 I take it Quentin Davies is not on your Xmas card list? (Unless you can put Semtex in it :lol:)
303. Come on Matthew, Obama was a far superior candidate for the top of the ticket than Gore, Edwards, Biden or Richardson. Granted, a Gore intervention could have denied Obama the chance to unite the Democratic liberal intelligentsia and grassroots left against Clinton, but you can’t deny that the Obama campaign has been extremely effective, disciplined and professional.
When has Obama made a blunder? I can think of just two - Berlin, and his slowness to disown Wright. That’s a pretty impressive record over a campaign lasting more than a year. In addition, you could easily argue that Obama has been unlucky - he could easily have faced Romney or Huckabee, and has been hampered in his FP assault by the supposed “success” of the surge in Iraq.
Those of us who are liberals hope fervently that Obama wins. Sure, he will disappoint many of our hopes. But at least we will have buried the two-faced, triangulating politics of Clinton and Blair that has passed for centre-left leadership for all too long.
OT got a £10 on Massa to win the title at 8/1 when it started raining. Feel bad winning the money!
316. IF Quentin Davies was the Labour candidate where you live at the next election, would you vote for him?
I take that back.
Christ that was close, last couple of corners and Hamilton wins the championship!
312.”For my money there are a few people on here who take themselves a little bit too seriously.”
I am sorry, but as Next of Kin to someone in Afghanistan right now I just feel physical sick when I see someone like Davies who is supposed to be a government Minister in the MOD trashing soldiers who leave the service because they see their men and women die due to a lack of the correct equipment! Have you bothered to read the details of any of the recent Coroners reports spread across the media?
A member of my extended family had their loved ones details from the Coroners report spread across the Scottish papers, it took a strong stomach!
I am not taking myself too seriously, I just feel passionately about this issue.
AMAZING HAMILTON was overtaken but got it back in the last 100 metres or so (according to BBC 5 live
Hamilton is champion
HAMILTON!!!!
I think Hamilton is World champion
Thank you Glock.
Just judged the rain right.
Wow. Could it be closer?
322. Apologies - I wasn’t referring to the criticism of Davies which is absolutely justified. I just felt that the comment about about reading posts to music didn’t deserve the response. I totally agree with you that our forces deserve to be totally supported. The likes of Davies should know far, far better…
Gordon wished Hamilton good luck. Time to review positions in Glenrothes?
Any chance of there being a protest for not driving a Ferrari?
319,Holding my nose,between clenched teeth,taking the view ‘I vote for party not person’,then,with reluctance,yes
Nice one Lewis. I stuck a speculative few quid on him to be World champion when Vettel overtook him.
was Glock racing until the end or did he give it to Hamilton
Congratulations to Hamilton on winning the World Championship. Now must get some money on SPOTY before the rush starts….
How is the closeness of the result going to affect the sports personality of they year. Hamilton had it won, lost it, won it back. I think its odds on he will win it now.
335 - He hadn’t switched tires, the rain got heavier, he had no grip and lost eighteen seconds in a lap.
re 303. Thank you Matthew. I agree with much of what you say.
McCain’s Palin pick for V-P was perhaps the most crucial and did two things to his chances. It made him look like a reckless gambler and having her only a heart-beat away from presidency completely undermined his message.
From May 2005 I always thought Obama would beat Hillary though I do agree that her team management skills and her husband played a big part in her failure.
But you have to admire the sheer brilliance of the Obama campaign - the understanding of the need to build up massive computer databases of solid supporters and to utilise them in a hugely effective manner.
He’ll be good for America and will be good for the world.
329.Rich, I think that Davies is showing a distinct lack of political nous in allowing himself to be used in this. His behaviour in the media this weekend has been pretty unedifying, and I think it says more about him as well as the current government, it might explain why he did not shine in the Conservative party and why he defected.
I genuinely believe that Des Brown and his team became very demoralised over the last couple of years as they were forced to play politics with the armed forces in the media instead of defending, them which I genuinely believe Browne wished to do. Making the MOD a part time job while giving its boss the remit of the Scottish office as Labour lost power to the SNP was a very bad decision by Brown, but it showed his lack of feeling or understanding of the situation we are in.
334 No doubt Ferrari will make a complaint, in a desperate (and unsporting) attempt to get Hamilton’s Championship title revoked.
Shame on the crowd for booing.
332. Is this actual living proof of the existence of the legendary “will vote Labour even if it is dead sheep/monkey/etc with a red rosette”?
I have a sort of grim respect.
International thread will be up in next hour or so - thanks.
337. I said some months ago that LewHam was nailed on for F1 champion and SPOTY. McLaren’s creative intepretation of the testing rules were always going to make them dominant over the last half of the season. (to be read while listening to “Pimp of the Nation” by Kid Rock)
297
I would love not to take him seriously but unfortunately he is one of the misters responsible for this mess and so his denials and attacks don’t bode well for the PBI (Poor Bloody Infantry)
332
But of course you don’t vote for a party. You vote for a person - someone who you wish to represent your views and interests in Parliament. Are you really saying that you would want Quentin Davis to be that person?
333.
This Hamilton bloke seems to contribute a lot to global warming but sport??? Give me Croquet on the lawns at Dorneywood anytime, with Tracy Temple rolls at half time!!!
341
It is interesting that Des Browne was one of the few Labour ministers that bloggers like Richard North were willing to say a few good words for. My impression is that they knew he was trying to do something but was being frustrated from above.
343 I take it you refer to 334 as opposed to 332.
In 2003 I voted Lib Dem in Bournemouth’s local elections-as council tax had soared c.40% over the past 4 years,and a much loved music hall,the Winter Gardens,was under threat,seemingly half of Bournemouth voted en masse for their first ever overall control Lib Dem council (they had run a minority administration from 1995-1999)
The Winter Gardens,alas,were not saved-a proposed pelacement,with central govt backing,was not enough for seemingly,this one issue seeing the council revert to overall Conservative control in 2007.
So far,much of a muchness-with the caveat that the first thing to be dropped was the proposed new arts facility to replace the Winter Gardens-it is now a car park..one side-effect of the building downturn is that no shark will build luxury flats there..yet! (Aged 12 in 1983 I luke-warmedly gave a little cheer for Mrs.T,and in the 1984 US Presidential election I did want Reagan to beat Mondale-so I have leant the other way :wink:)
346 As I live in Bournemouth East the Earth will stop spinning on its axis before a Labour MP is elected!
348 It is an interesting point about the PBI and the armed forces in general.. I dont think there are any votes from the forces for Labour come the election even if our troops leave Iraq, they will just end up in Afghanistan or elsewhere.. It might only be 250,000 personell and their families, but thats .5 million votes. out of 20 million votes thats 2.5%. Enough to swing an election >?
CNN Montana
McCain 46
Obama 45
Ron Paul?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/cnn.electoral.map/index.html
(to be read whilst listening to the theme from ‘Rawhide’)
So… what are the chances of the full three-way totaliser this week, the result all decent people desire:
1. Hamilton wins F1 - tick!
2. Obama wins the prez - looking good.
3. Labour defeated in Glenrothes - hmmm…
OK the last is a bit iffy; but still: so far, one out of three - with two to go. Excellent!
334. Patrick - out of interest, just how unpleasant or corrupt would your local Labour candidate have to be for you not to vote for him?
346 Yes true, but Labour don’t value the military at all, so regardless of who is in charge of the ministry I unfortunately don’t think they will get the support they need. The relatively good news I believe is that Quentin Davies is a joke and therefore the major from the SAS will I think be believed whereas Davies will effectively be ignored. Hopefully this pressure will help to get the troops what is really required and will have journalists ignoring the Labour line and listening to the troops. Of course in the end the Tories need to get in to give the troops even a chance of a better deal.
Where’s Jack W been all day when you need him?
351
The trouble is that many of those troops are effectively disenfranchised. During the 2005 election the new rules that meant that soldiers - along with all other voters - had to reregister every year meant that large numbers of troops on active service never got the chance to vote.
356 - Oh the man deserves a day of rest!
355
NO! They need to TELL the troops they will DEFINITELY get a better deal, not wait till they are in Govt.
Davies, given a sinecure for defection. Who gives a monkeys what he says or thinks, its a joke appointment.
357
to follow up on that last point I made, between 2000 when the new registration rules were introduced and 2003, the numbers of British servicemen registered to vote fell from 168,000 to 33,000.
I wonder how many of those lost voters would have supported Labour. Not many I suspect.
354 In Bournemouth East,we have only had local Labour councillors for council-estate wards,or manual workers,or a white-collar worker who is a nice sort of chap,as candidate in Bournemouth East-in all honesty even you would find Bournemouth east Labour candidates quite nice chaps/chappesses-there is almost an old-fashioned weeness about my local Labour Party! Obviously I would not vote for a total rat,but I’ve never been asked to
359 Yes you are right I believe Fox though has said this on several occasions. Agreed he needs to say it again.
360. I wonder how many people owing no allegiance to this country gained the right to vote over the same period. And how many fraudulent names entered the voting register. Food for thought.
If it was happening in the US and the Republicans were responsible, imagine the outcry there would be from bien pensant opinion…
361 Patrick why were the Winter Gardens not saved?
361. Surely Davies qualifies on that score, doesn’t he? If not, who would?
361
I have to say that even though I am from the Libertarian right, if I had lived in Chesterfield in the 1980s and 90s the Tories would have to have come up with a pretty exceptional candidate to make me vote anything other than Tony Benn.
360 - I don’t see why the new rules caused a drop off in registration. You’ve always had to fill in a form each year (apart from in those authorities where they re-registered people automatically in contravention of the rules)
360. Surely an area the Tories should be looking to get registered and enfranchised?
367
Nope, members of the armed forces were able to regsiter once and that was it for their career. That only changed in 2000.
133 Which thread was that?
64 - surtees/johnson
76 - hunt/carter
92 - mansell/clinton
96 - hill/clinton
08 - lewis/obama?
366 Wow! Personally,I am way,way less left-wing than Tony Benn-I have read on psr keele the 1983 Labour manifesto,and I would not have voted for it.I lay at Tony Benn’s door much of the blame for the early 80s civil war that engulfed the war,and whilst respecting his rights to his views,I feel he has much to answer for in the Labour Party being unelectable for as long as it was
372
My point being that I vote for a constituency representative not for a party toady. Frankly I couold not care less what my MP does with respect to damaging his party as I elect him to represent his constituency in Parliament not his party in the constituency.
As such the fact that Benn damaged the Labour party is only a bonus.
355.”Of course in the end the Tories need to get in to give the troops even a chance of a better deal.”
Voreas, I agree, but they have to deliver too. Warm words of support are not enough, they either give them the finance in the right area’s, and the *correct* equipment to do the job they are asked, or they get them out of these countries until they can.
357.Good point, yet another example of how low this dishonest bunch in power will stoop too.
Ugh. Brown has already made a statement about Hamilton. The man is utterly pathetic.
I would think that the vast majority on here including Conservatives want Obama to win. Was speaking to the local Conservative leader of the Council where I live who said “Obama is today and McCain is yesterday”. I think he also believes the same about Cameron / Brown.
The vicar at my Church, another Tory voter, said “we would all be Democrats in the USA.”
I guess this leads to the question is the UK a more liberal society than the USA. Many Americans, I know, equate liberal to socialism / communism and Mc Cain has used it in that contaxt.
If it is true why is Britain and I guess Western Europe on the whole more liberal than the USA? Discuss!
376. He would be criticised if he didn’t make a statement.
378.He is already trying to be a back seat driver to Darling, I don’t think McLaren need him as a standby in the cockpit for Hamilton.
Oops, despite earlier all round optimism here and elsewhere, 538.com show Obama’s tally of ECVs having dipped to 333 today, down 11.
Those of a nervous disposition may care to consider sportingbet’s 3/1 on him securing between 311-350 ECVs. Very fair value IMHO, if the contest is indeed tightening, or some possible insurance if you’re not sure.
377 - Most people who emigrated to the colonies took a risk when deciding to do so (before anyone else points this out, yes slaves and pogrom-fleers were an exception to this general rule). Descendents of risk-takers do tend to be naturally conservative, because they’re glad of what their forbears gained for them and they don’t want to lose it.
QED America (and other colonial societies) are always likely to be more conservative than the mother country.
Just a thought,
Rob
364 It was considered wholly unviable financially-since the mid 1980s when the Bournmouth International Centre opened and the other blue-riband venue the Pavillion were prioritised,and once the Bournemouth Symphony Orchestra left the Winter Gardens and took up residence at Poole Art Centre,I guess with hindsight the end was nigh-it could be stated the incoming LibDem counicl of 03 promised the impossible in saving the exisiting building
377. I wonder how many Conservatives would still be “Democrats in America” if they had to pay taxes there.
International thread now up.
Cheers
Double Carpet
381.
“Most people who emigrated to the colonies took a risk when deciding to do so ”
Round hairy objects! For a great many of the people who emigrated, staying put was effectively equated with starvation. It seemed far less risky to go abroad to somewhere you could take someone else’s land, kill off most of the natives with disease and use slave labour to expnand your own race’s living standards.
Most Americans are not naturally conservative. About a third of them are either illegals or so disenfranchised that even the milder of their two conservative parties does not appeal at all.
Which is what makes all the rubbish McCain’s troops say about Obama so funny. B.O. is a middle of the road Tory, somewhre between Cameron and Blair, with possibly a little more genuine compassion than either of those two. McCain is somewhere near Redwood with Palin and crew off in loonyland beyond Lady Porter.
The principal Conservative force in the USA is fundamentalist religion, which funnily enough is not that far away from the Muslim ideology they claim to hate. But then competition is not something which the American model REALLY endorses except in a decorative way around the margins.
Good news on the world champ from Stevenage
“Whoever is producing the Daily Mash deserves a wider audience, day in day out I Laugh out Loud at their articles.”
I constantly have tears streaming down my face. The article about Harriet Harman a few months ago was just amazing. They need more recognition for their work. They don’t even have a Wikipedia page yet.
“377. I wonder how many Conservatives would still be “Democrats in America” if they had to pay taxes there.”
America’s political centre of gravity is to the Right of where it is here. So many Conservatives would find much in common with mainstream Democrats.
But if people with Conservative views (in this country) were born and brought up in the USA, the likelihood is that most would be Republicans.
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
The above website has an interesting view.