Has Labour just moved from “dire” to “deep” trouble?
November 4th, 2008
Should Westminster heed John Curtice’s words?
While we wait for the polling stations to open in America let’s focus for three or four hours on the political situation in the UK and some timely words from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in today’s Independent.
Under a headline “Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings” Curtice is quoted as saying: “..The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to be out of proportion to the scale of Labour’s recovery…Labour has simply moved from being in dire trouble to being in deep trouble.”
In the panel above are the calculations from UK Polling Report of the impact of current polling figures from the six firms that regularly cover British politics on the commons seat calculations. One of the surveys, Populus, is a month old and we should get its latest number next week.
But the fieldwork for all the others took place after bank bailout package and all the kudos that Brown and his team were getting.
What’s happening is that our old friend “the media narrative” is now all about the Labour recovery irrespective of whether the polls back it up.
The only numbers that journalists want to focus on are those that support the narrative. So responses to questions like the one talking of “Gordon Brown’s decisive handling of the bank crisis” are given prominence without any of the so-called media political experts pausing to question whether this form of wording might lead to pro-government findings.
All this is why the only numbers that matter are on voting intention and why this site will continue to put the focus on them.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Get in the hole!
Hart’s Location, New Hampshire
2008 Presidential Election Results:
* Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 17
* John McCain/Sarah Palin: 10
* Ron Paul (write-in): 2
http://www.xkcd.com/493/
2 - And the history in this hamlet is:-
1996 - Dole 13 Clinton 12 Perot 4 Browne 2
2000 - Bush 17 Gore 13
2004 - Bush 16 Kerry 14 Nader 1
Dixville Notch voted
Obama 15 McCain 6
First time in 40 years that it has gone for the Democrat!
and the history is
1996 Dole 18 Clinton 8 Perot 1 Browne 1
2000 Bush 21 Gore 5 Nader 1
2004 Bush 19 Kerry 7
The media just wants to be able to sell a non story twice. When the get bored of Brown’s comeback, they will talk about Labour being in dire trouble, even if the polls hardly move.
Gives a combined 28% swing, I believe.
Dixville Notch - first indication of the truly massive result Obama is going to achieve today.
Good luck to all those 50-1-ers!
Personally, I think Obama may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter - a Democratic President elected in a fit of pique at the Republicans by spinning empty b.s. who quickly turned out to be out of his depth. Because expectations are so high and so contradictory (and most of what he’s promising he can’t actually deliver, it’s down to Congress or the Courts) and times so difficult, the disillusionment will be all the greater.
Anyway, on topic, New Labour has throughout its 14 years received an astonishingly favourable press. What’s new now? I expect the narrative will change again after the next big disaster for the Government, though, perhaps Mandy’s third resignation or another foul-up on tax.
If those tiny straws mean anything, it’s going to be a mighty wind…
On topic: let’s always remember that Labour were re-elected in ‘05 with 36% of the vote. They had no fat to lose in the first place. If they are now polling in the 31%-33% range, that isn’t too bad in one sense - given that the party in Scotland by general consent isn’t fit for purpose and the loss of Blair (yes, he was damaged goods in ‘05 but probably still a plus on balance).
Off topic, I see that the Shadow Culture Secretary has said that the Tories will neither scrap the licence fee nor privatise Channel Four. The legions of Peebies who want both these things will doubtless be too busy writing to him to show him the error of his ways rather than posting here. (My apologies if this has already been raked over - it’s no longer practicable to read all the threads here.)
10 - I tried to point out the same thing yesterday IA, but nobody rose to the bait - Cameron said the same thing.
Still i’m sure the voices on PB who abuse those who post about the likely reality of Conservative policy know better…
On topic, quite. We have reached a new equilibrium. “Labour in deep trouble rather than dire trouble” sums it up neatly. I don’t expect the Tory share to budge significantly in the short term. The labour share may show slow seepage as the “decisive handling” of the crisis fades from memory and the grim reality of recession bites.
O/T - has Madasafish been seen recently? If he was backing his financial market calls with money i hope he had plenty of capital to weather the short term shifts against him.
1. M in Tokyo - thank you, that was genuinely amusing and has brightened my morning.
3 - LS - see 14 - ditto.
13
-+Thnaks
But I did warn it might turn and went long.
Gabble Check List for Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Almost there yesterday - just 12.32 points short.
FTSE 100 opens at 4443.28
Will it make it today? - 11 years of moderate growth, followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession could see the FTSE100 return to the figure inherited from John Major on 2nd May 1997.
Optimistic milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 12.32 (0.28%) to return to 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 942.62 (21.21%) to come out of current bear market
5872.47 - up 1429.19 (32.17%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
5919.94 - up 1476.66 (33.23%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 1886.79 (42.46%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6472.54 - up 2029.26 (45.67%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2084.32 (46.91%) to return to Blair’s 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 2486.92 (55.97%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 983.28 (-22.13%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 1156.28 (-26.02%) to return to Blair’s low on 12 Mar 03
2780.00 - down 1663.28 (-37.43%) to reach Madasafish’s low low
2144.30 - down 2298.98 (-51.74%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
The direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
Isn’t the “media narrative” a “leading indicator”? It takes time for public opinion to realise what it is thinking. Deeply cynical, I know, it must be the time of day, year, or something!
18 - The media narrative is not an indicator of anything other than what the media choose to narrate.
To take a non-political example, when “What’s the Story, Morning Glory” was released by Oasis, it was universally slated by the press. Unfortunately for them, the general public heard it, liked it and bought it in huge numbers for years. Two years later, Oasis released “Be Here Now”. Scarred by their past misjudgement, the press universally gave it very good reviews. The general public bought it sight unseen, heard it and then decided that actually they didn’t like it that much, and its sales dropped off a cliff.
The media narrative is interesting when the media has an insight into a matter that the general public may not have. Since the average journalist knows as much about economic matters as they do about the problems of translating Linear B, the media narrative has nothing much to offer here.
It all just proves the old adage, “As Hart’s Location goes, so goes Dixville Notch.” How true that is.
Those betting on Glenrothes (I’m not) might want to read Iain Macwhirter’s take on the by-election:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/04/glenrothes-labour-snp-scotland
Mr Macwhirter, who is generally opposed to Scottish Nationalists while swallowing whole many of their most intellectually dishonest justifications for gorging Scotland with money, seems to think that the SNP will win.
I shall treasure this Polly Toynbee article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/04/labour-conservatives
It includes a sentence which I never thought I’d read from her:
“No doubt the Tories have good intentions.”
I see the pound is dropping sharply again - this time against the Euro as well as the dollar. Why? What has changed? Surely the Telegraph asking for a 1% cut by the MPC this Thursday followed by further cuts hasn’t spooked the market.
OT: Here http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/ is an interesting summary of the demographies of the those left to vote in many swing states. Because of the differential advantage for Obama in the early vote, the demographics for today’s voters are skewed markedly towards McCain. For example, he is trailing in Florida by 2 overall, but leading by 12 (!) in the projected remaining vote for today.
Now just to repeat a comment I made before… if early voting is not taken into account in the exit polls and indeed only the people leaving the voting places are interviewed, the numbers can only “reflect” a massive McCain upset across the board. I’d hope that people have enough sense to adjust the numbers, but exit polls are exit polls and Drugde is Drudge. So perhaps there will be a small panic to cash in on later today when swing state exits are coming in.
I’ve just seen McCain on Sky News. He seems to have turned into Tappy Tibbons from “Requiem for a Dream”. Be excited! Be, be excited!
2: 7% Ron Paul write-in at Hart’s Location! That had better not be a start of a Ron Paul sweep: I cheerfully took up lots of spread bets on him by mad libertarians in the spring, and if he’s elected I’ll need to sell the shirt off my back.
I tried to point out the same thing yesterday IA, but nobody rose to the bait
Two options. Cameron is lying or he is stupid.
A state owned broadcaster is always going to be institutionally left wing.
19. Antifrank
Good analysis. Thank you.
The media always follows popular opinion, however regularly it get’s things very very wrong. Brown’s honeymoon was an example, they made him out to be a titan, when in reality the public weren’t in the main impressed. When he got knocked off his pedastal most people thought that their opinion of him had been vindicated, not changed completely. Now it’s swung back towards him I’m still not convinced the public like him, just that more core labour supporters are holding their nose and saying they’ll vote for labour. The tories have weathered the storm well so far, as it gets colder and the recession bites the media will turn once again against Brown.
Zogby final poll, Obama running away with it!
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Final: Obama in Double-Digit Lead, 54% to 43%
UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll — up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday’s report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.
I’d never seen this before, which is kind of surprising, given how obvious it seems.
A map of America, where states are scaled in proportion to their EVs. A politically-representative map of the US then:
http://www.techpresident.com/ecmap
31. They used a similair thing on BBC news last night. Although it had Jeremy Vine simpering in front of it.
32 - Had he dug his stetson out?
Wonderful results from Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location. Wish I’d asked Morus for a bet on his predictions for DN last night now
I hope this is the start of something very big.
The US posters of a ‘white’ Obama make him look like a young Arnie.
Shades of u-turns to come?
8. What do these numbers refer to?
Final Zogby tracker numbers:
Obama
54.1% (+3.2)
McCain
42.7% (-1.1)
Other
3.1%
33. I watched that live (I had a cold and couldn’t sleep, honest!) couldn’t stop laughing for ages at simply how bad it was. It managed the double whammy of being condescending AND stupid at the same time.
36 - That must represent an amazing final day of polling given it’s a tracker. But Zogby is rather dodgy.
37 - I don’t think that anyone who is serious about their politics will allow Vine or the BBC to live that one down!
39. I still maintain that Ming’s Blign was the worst thing that has ever been broadcasted.
*Bling, I should say
40. I saw that one too, it wasn’t quite as bad as Jeremy Vine slapping on a stetson and a dodgy american accent, then poncing about some dreadful computer graphics.
I see Jim white in the Telegraph still doesn’t understand what went on in the Brazilian GP. The Telegraph really is going down the tubes in so many respects. Only the business pages keep the flag flying. All the imports from the lefty press to the political output have made that aspect move backwards. Bring back the old team and get some new talent in the motor racing reporting please.
42, who knows what wonders we’ll have for the next election?
They’d do better to shunt off the pointless graphics, reinstate the swingometer, and get serious people (like Mike and possibly Ave It) to comment, rather than three politicians spewing party lines, a biased political editor and some berk pratting about in a cowboy hat.
19. I agree with that to a point, that point being that last week we saw the media narrative at its worst with the Brand/Ross story. I think the narrative works when it reinforces a notion that members of the public may already have and pushes it until the public thinks it’s “the way things are”. A lot of people don’t question their own views.
43, what does he think happened? It’s not more of the nonsensical Glock conspiracy theory is it?
42 - I think that most of these populist analysis tools are rubbish. Most people who are staying up until 2am watching election coverage are not going to be impressed with the BBC’s graphics budget!
Meanwhile on topic, yes I think that Labour are still in a hole. They may have temporarily stopped digging but the hole’s still there and they are in it. I think Cameron will be cracking a slight smile tonight if the Obama victory is as big as it looks like being because a key plank of both Clinton’s and McCain’s pitch was a variant of ‘no time for a novice’ and it looks like being clobbered out of the park.
46. I’ve heard that, what a load of rubbish. He was having trouble controlling the car on the dryish bits, never mind the soaked bits and rather sensibly decided to not risk pushing it in order to finish. Hamilton had wet weather tyres on and took advantage, end of story.
“and get serious people (like Mike and possibly Ave It)”
Well quite…
43. Jeff Randall, Boris and Matt. I used to devour the Telegraph each day but I can’t be bothered any more. It’s not the political changes, it has become a shallow, badly written rag.
44 - You do yourself an injustice Morris Dancer, I personally think it would be a hoot to see a BBC panel of experts with yourself opining that Ed Balls should be variously thrown into the Thames or fired into orbit from an artillery piece!
Here’s the ESBE*’s take on the betting angle, complete with quotes from Our Genial Host:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7706843.stm
Mike, you backed Obama at 50/1?! Why didn’t you say so?
* Evil Socialist Broadcasting Empire
47 “No time for a novice” might work out if over next 18 months President Obama tanks. By the end of 2009 the honeymoon will be over and we will all have seen how well The One has done in the job, expectations huge and disappointment could well be setting in.
47. Doubtful about that argument. Cameron ain’t no Obama.
[49] I think Ave It had better have a screen test first…
19. I might dare to say that What’s the story Morning Glory’ is the greatest album ever written (not that oasis are the greatest band though). There other albums contain elements of excellence, amongst stunningly average stuff. But, WTSMG, from start to finsh is pure excellence, every single song worthy of number one status, and a classic in their own right…
52 Yes, had quite a shock this morning. Clicked on to ESBE’s Site this morning and there’s Mike Smithson’s face beaming at me.
Nearly choked on me cornflakes.
Did he really back Obama at 50/1? He kept that quieter than Benedict’s Blog.
Mike, I think you overstate the strength of the media narrative regarding the resurgence (?) of Brown. They have picked up that he is now more confident, that his rivals in the party are in disarray, that the arrival of Mandelson/Campbell has sharpened Labour’s message and the events in Corfu have put the Tories on the back foot.
However, the battle to provide the long-term narrative is being won by Cameron. There is a global banking crisis which is causing problems almost everywhere but the recession is particularly acute in the UK because the credit boom was allowed to get out of control and the budget deficit is dangerously wide already. A few key phrases are already embedded in the minds of the electorate: ‘didn’t mend the roof when the sun shone’, ‘didn’t save for a rainy day’, claimed to have abolished boom and bust and he wouldn’t task risks with people’s houses.
The media froth will come and go. Polly will no doubt turn somersaults again over her attitude to Brown. There will be more stories about the Bullingdon. Mandelson will get into more scrapes. Critics will claim the Tories need to flesh out their policies. But it doesn’t matter, IMO. The long-term narrative is with the Tories.
“What’s the story Morning Glory’ is the greatest album ever written”
Oh dear god, that is probably the most ridiculous thing ever posted on pb, and that is saying something…
Republican turnout will be interesting today, because they are apparently not as “excited” for the race. I imagine many feel alienated. But that does not mean they will stay at home.
53 - Yes disappointment may well be setting in with Obama. I can’t quite see a Labour campaign of ‘Don’t vote Cameron because the President screwed up’ being massively successful! There are differences between Obama and Cameron for sure, and the electoral system and process nuances the process but if you listen to Obama’s buzz phrases and Cameron’s they are very similar.
FWIW I have placed my Firewall bet: North Carolina.
56. It’s not even the greatest Oasis album! Definitely Maybe is miles better.
62 - Ditto, though I took a bit of the next two down (Missouri & Indiana) as cover.
60. They might be more inclined to come out where there are competitive Congressional races, i.e. North Carolina, so as to try and stop the Dems getting an absolute stranglehold.
54. Thank God.
O/T A betting tip from Sky News this morning. Apparently if the Washington Redskins lose their last game before the election, the incumbents lose the White House. If I had known that, I would have had more than £20 on Pittsburgh…
63. I like the twist on the john lennon crack about ringo…..
Defintely Maybe is a good album, it is rough round the edges however, and contains some duff songs, Whats the story is as close to perfection as possible.
Speaking as someone who is a devout fan of the Beatles, and their music, I adore Abbey Road, Rubber soul, Revolver and Sgt Pepper, and that was their strength, they could put out amazing stuff repeatedly. Oasis did it once, and it is fantastic.
Alas, I would be loathe to travel to London for election coverage. I could front the North of England segments though…:p
62 Morning Jan and may I say thanks on behalf of all Obamaniacs for putting the other side’s case so well and thereby stopping us from getting too carried away.
Best wishes and whatever the result I hope it doesn’t prove too dispiriting for you.
“I like the twist on the john lennon crack about ringo…..”
Urban myth. Lennon never said that.
Some tightning on the Dem states won betfair market
36+ now 8.6
31-35 now 3.35
“Whats the story is as close to perfection as possible.”
This is like saying McDonalds make the greatest hamburgers. Absolutely ridiculous.
My general perception of the media is that they are idiots (certainly “The Westminster Village” side oif the media. They have been convinced by Mandybell that the redemption of Gordon Brown is taking place and they move to any other story, even when the facts speak for themselves. No matter, as Labours polling gets worse they will have no choice but to point out that Labours revival is going down the pan…
Just before I went to bed yesterday, I wrote
I predict McCain 281 Obama 257 (McCain gains PA, and Obama gains IA, NV, NM, CO).
But I missed the response by Anatole:
You’re predicting a McCain victory? In the words of Sir Humphrey Appleby, “corageous”!
In case of any confusion, I have always predicted a McCain victory, and I still do, for the following reasons:
a. Bradley effect
b. Late swing
c. Ballot irregularities
d. scare stories about “socialism” and “Muslim”
e. because I’m pessimistic.
Although, if Obama loses, I take comfort from the fact that it won’t be for the reason I thought until about a year or so ago, which was that the American people are only ready to elect a black president if he’s Republican; not if he’s Democrat or liberal or northern.
Also, if McCain wins, I have some consolation in the thought that Obama will/would only be slightly less imperialistic / warmongering than McCain; he is likely to drag out the process of withdrawing from Iraq; he may intensify the war in Afghanistan; and in terms of domestic policies he is likely to be mediocre and disappointing compared with expectations.
Mike, I’m a bit confused. You started buying Labour because the media narrative changed, but now you’re saying that you focus on voting intention. Does this mean you will no longer attempt to move quickly with new media narratives? I think that would be for the best myself - there is still a macro-narrative of people being grumpy with this current government and I think that will re-assert itself.
Also, a point I made a little while back is how you said Tory ratings always go up when Cameron is in the news. His lack of coverage probably partly explains some of the minor recovery from Labour, but also indicates that in an actual campaign he will get strong positives and push the Tory vote up.
Both of these points, the macro-narrative and the Cameron bounce, lead me to ask: have you completely moved away from backing Labour in the spreads? And do you think you were wrong to switch to them in the first place a few weeks back?
James wrote: If Obama wins, let me predict right now that no serious Republican will even stand in 2012. It will be like 1996 with a rag-bag of has-beens, kooks and nobodies.
Er… like McCain? Or Palin? Tee hee
Big Daddy wrote: JohnLoony’s prediction is bogus crap…
It may be wrong, but it’s honest and completely consistent with what I have been saying for months.
Hywel wrote: most of [the London mayoral ballot papers] only need counting once (those for the top two candidates). You only need to second count ballots where the first vote was one of the third placed or lower candidates which has been 25-35% of the ballots each time). Not completely undoable. …
It’s more of an issue for Scotland where STV requires multiple counts - do they count manually in Northern Ireland and Eire?
STV counts in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland are indeed done manually – they take a day or two, and the successive stages are eagerly followed by observers and on TV. Unfortunately, the STV method chosen for the Scottish local elections is a much more complicated version than the one used in Northern Ireland, and it is only practical to do it by machine counting. A manual count would be theoretically possible, but would take several days and would require a lot of very careful accounting of fiddly numbers.
75. The last ppgh there is spot on I think. Those who think Obama is ’sent from God’ are likely to be very disillusioned in a couple of years’ time.
75…american voters will not elect Eskimo Nell.that is fact!
1&3.
19.That’s a great post Antifrank, summed things up nicely and made me LOL on this dreekit morning.
Antifrank at 19, I read your post while walking to work, with Cast No Shadow on my iPod, which seemed very apt. I don’t recall Morning Glory getting mixed/bad reviews but no doubt that is a failure of recollection on my part. If true, it was a colossal error of judgement by the critics because, leaving aside the fact it was amongst the best selling albums of the decade, it is also an outstanding album from a critical perspective. On my walk to work this morning Cast No Shadow was followed by Champagne Supernova. Admittedly these are two of the more accomplished songs on the album but they are excellent as technical works too.
I bought Be Here Now on release and was disappointed with it at the time, but rediscovered it the best part of a decade later and decided it was actually very good, it just suffered for not being Morning Glory and not having anything as obviously stadium-worthy as Don’t Look Back in Anger.
Following my Oasis double I had Pulp’s Common People and Days by the Kinks taking me to my desk. Great.
(incidentally, Common People is one of the all-time greatest attacks on privilege “Just one call and your Dad’ll stop it all, yeah…You’ll never fail like common people, you’ll never watch your life slide out of view”. If I wanted to help Labour, which I don’t, I would suggest that it would be a good soundtrack for any negative advertising against Cameron and Osborne, more subtle than their usual “toff” attacks and also more likely to attract sympathy.)
If Boris is anything to go by, it won’t be the left who’ll be moaning about a Cameron government, it’ll be the right.
It now seems many fears expressed in the Guardian and elsewhere about Johnson were misplaced. In a classic Blairite move, he has leaned to the centre-left, supporting the London Living Wage, giving reasonable prominence to the environment, and extolling a Keynesian boost to the capital’s soon to be depressed economy. He has not proved to be the wicked racist foreseen by some. Most of the Livingstone multi- cultural events in Trafalgar Square continue unabated. He is backing Barack Obama to win today’s US election.
Tony Travers today’s Guardian.
68 What about She’s Electric and the Gary Glitter one?
@82:
RED BORIS!
(Caution: Blatant plug alert!)
In case you’re interested (longer odds that OGH’s fabled Obama bet, no doubt), I’ve posted on my seldom-used blog to explain why I would be voting for Obama, and why I’m not as excited about the prospect as I might be.
21&22 were good too.
“Labour success on social mobility will only be valued from the gloom of Tory rule. So much more might have been done”
You could not make Polly Toynbee up for a Rory Bremnar sketch.
71 you have a source for that? never knew it…
Perhaps Dixville Notch will apply to become a state. 21 votes out of 130,000,000 would mean 3 EC votes out of 540, which is a reasonably good representation ratio.
Actually, in light of the (undoubtedly representative of the whole nation, and not at all influenced by an enhanced media spotlight or campaigning) result in Dixville Notch, I have now revised my prediction:
Obama 535 McCain 3 (Wyoming).
I would have predicted 533-5 (Utah) but I think that Wyoming, being a nice neat oblong, would look better as a red square on the map instead of Utah which is an awkward corner-missing shape. I dind’t predict 538-0 because that would be greedy, and the map would be boring.
56. An overstatement. Hey Now and She’s Electric are not that great. But I’ll allow two mediocre songs amongst eight classics.
63. People only say Definitely Maybe is better to look cool. It’s an excellent debut album and it has a harder edge, which is great, but there is a fair amount of filler inbetween the highs of Live Forever and Slide Away.
71 What’s the myth.
83. I love ’she’s electric’, it was my and my first love’s ’song’…..
The greatest albums ever written were, officially:
The Stone Roses, by The Stone Roses
Dark Side of the Moon, by Pink Floyd
and
Aja, by Steely Dan
Oasis were Slade on very bad Ecstasy. Cranking out hopped-up, warmed-over guitar riffs with a laughable sneer does not define great music. And their lyrics were hilariously poor. I shall refrain from quoting examples unless goaded.
ON-topic, YES. What’s more, I think Labour will soon be back in dire trouble, for the reasons rehearsed yesterday. Brown cannot hide from his prediction that we were going to “weather the recession better than many other countries”, cause of his brilliant governance.
Turns out, we’re gonna do WORSE than most other countries. And he has no answer to that, as he was in charge. He can’t blame our poor performance on America or Thatcher or the Illuminati.
By next year the Tories will be back with regular 15%+ leads.
MURDOCK ENDORSES BARACK OBAMA
On Obama: “He is a rock star. It’s fantastic! I love what he is saying about education.”
On McCain: “doesn’t seem to know much about the economy.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hilary-rosen/rupert-murdoch-says-obama_b_
90. Interviewer asked Lennon if it was true that ringo was the best drummer in the world, Lennon replied that ringo wasnt even the best drummer in the Beatles…..
23.”I see the pound is dropping sharply again - this time against the Euro as well as the dollar. Why? What has changed? Surely the Telegraph asking for a 1% cut by the MPC this Thursday followed by further cuts hasn’t spooked the market.”
The markets aren’t buying the UK media’s Brown is superman narrative either.
If it is an Obama landslide, it’ll be fun to imagine how much bigger it would have been if it were Obama/McCain vs. Palin/Biden instead of Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin.
Make that “Murdoch”
70 Thanks PtP. I’ll be fine, thank you. A nice monetary gain whatever the outcome on top of a very good primary season. And I don’t think Obama will be a bad president. If he is, he will be punished in the 2010 Mid-terms and either adjust or be defeated in 2012.
My final prediction in the state bets - 338-200: McCain will hold NC, MO, IN. Florida - I’m still very uncertain. Bought some more at 7/2 yesterday, because I think that such odds are value, but expect Obama to win narrowly there.
88. JohnLoony: but I think that Wyoming, being a nice neat oblong, would look better as a red square on the map instead of Utah which is an awkward corner-missing shape.
Which gives me a chance to quote the great Alfred Matthew Yankovic:
I sued Colorado… ’cause you know, I think it looks a little bit too much like Wyoming
50.”43. Jeff Randall, Boris and Matt. I used to devour the Telegraph each day but I can’t be bothered any more. It’s not the political changes, it has become a shallow, badly written rag.”
Yes, that about sums it up these days.
89. Are you joking! Cigarettes and alcohol is ‘filler’?! Columbia? Supersonic? Every song on that album is great. In fact, I’m going to get it out and listen to it now. No matter how much time passes it never gets boring.
92. Lyrics are for girls.
97. Johnboy: Make that “Murdoch”
I pity the fool who makes that mistake
88 - If there is an Obama blow out then the last states to go would I imagine be Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas in no particular order and I cannot see them falling.
I have always been the sort of person who doesn’t like throwing things away, and keeping everything “just in case” I might need it some day. This week I cleared out a whole load of old books, in order to reduce the overflow from my bookshelves, and to liberate some floorspace from illegal imperialist occupation by the evil forces of George W. Book (ha ha, what a brilliant joke that was). One of the books I got rid of was “Did Things Get Better?” (or some such title) (c.2002) by Polly Toynbee. It was her verdict on the first few years of Blair’s government. I bought it cheaply from her when she came to some political meeting or other that she was at. As I was sorting through my books, I realsied that I had never even got round to reading any of it, and I didn’t want to.
100.50 I like Alex the cartoon. They even used an idea or two I sent them. But, the rest of the paper is becoming rather less good.
Please can someone explain to me what the numbers from Dixville Notch apply to at the start of this thread? Am I being stupid?
92
Best Album ever, ‘Music From Big Pink’ The Band!!
On Topic, thats if Cameron has a Shadow Cabinet come the next GE?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1082683/Cameron-faces-rebellion-ban-Tory-ministers-lucrative-second-jobs.html?ITO=1490
93. You know, when I first read that I thought you meant Murdock from the A-team. That would’ve been cooler.
99. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !!!!!!!!
56.”19. I might dare to say that What’s the story Morning Glory’ is the greatest album ever written (not that oasis are the greatest band though).”
Nah, U2’s The Joshua Tree was the best.
92.The Stone Roses, by The Stone Roses
Dark Side of the Moon, by Pink Floyd
I agreed with you till you got to Steely Dan??
106. benbobjim: Please can someone explain to me what the numbers from Dixville Notch apply to at the start of this thread? Am I being stupid?
Wikipedia is your friend: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Midnight_voting_tradition
Best album of the 21st century - Esbjorn Svensson Trio Live in Hamburg.
98 But Bush wasn’t beaten in 2004 though.
Meanwhile, the Enter key is my friend, dammit
106. OK -seen the BBC story now.
Re 76. I still have a Con sell - Lab buy position. It’s moved in the right direction and has just about covered the spread.
My reading of the spread markets at the moment is that they are more responsive to the media narrative than they are to voting intention polls.
94 - There is no evidence, written or oral, that Lennon ever said it
OT question: will the next season of Formula 1 market go up on Betfair once all the drivers/teams have been confirmed, or is there a set time?
It’s 143 days away, but there are a couple of predictions I’d like to try and get silly odds on:p
106. They are the (real) votes (already) cast (and counted) in the tiny village of Dixville Notch, Maine. The voting hours there are from midnight to half-past-midnight, because they have a weird local fetish for voting early and showing off their results before anybody else.
117. Or that Socrates ever existed…
101 et al - of course, the greatest ever Oasis songs, Talk Tonight and The Masterplan (I really can’t decide between them!) are on neither album…
117 Considering he was about the 3rd Drummer to join the band you can see why.
Mail’s got a story that flare guns used by coastguards are being banned due to health and safety. Anyone know if this is true?
Apparently hand held torches and nightvision goggles will replace them.
120 - I think you wish to believe that Lennon said even though he didnt!
119 - You have just transported the village across state lines which is a bit of a no-no. Dixville Notch is in New Hampshire!
119. I lived in Maine for a while, certainly not short of weird places, but a fantastic place to live, except, it gets frigging cold like you wouldnt believe..
122 - Both Socartes and Ringo were better drummers than Pete Best…
Really, Oasis are one of the most overrated bands of all time.
101. OK, please, enough of these embarrassing remarks in praise of Oasi.
They were a decentish pub rock band with a couple of good songs. They weren’t even in the same league as truly great bands. They shouldn’t even be discussed in the same breath as Led Zep or Steely Dan or the Stones or any number of genuinely talented bands.
Saying they made “the greatest album in the world” is like saying “I’ve just eaten the greatest bag of cheese and onion crisps in history”.
lol. For those who are too young to remember the pain, here are just a couple of Oasis lyrics:
From Up in the Sky:
“Hey you! Up in the sky
Learning to fly
Tell me how high
Do you think you’ll go
Before you start falling”
I kid you not.
Or how about these classic lines from Be Here Now:
“Wash your face in the morning sun
Flash your pen at the song that I’m singing
Touchdown bass living on the run
Make no sweat at the hole that you’re digging.”
TOUCHDOWN BASS LIVING ON THE RUN, MAKE NO SWEAT AT THE HOLE THAT YOU’RE DIGGING.
121. The masterplan shows the downhill journey of Oasis, as their B sides from previous years far out performed the stuff they started releasing as a sides.
128. MB: Really, Oasis are one of the most overrated bands of all time.
Translation: “I’m not a big fan”.
“Overrated” is rather meaningless for (romantic things like) music and art[*] - they’re subjective things, whereas “overrated” implies people think something is better than it actually is, which in itself implies an objective assessment of the true quality of the “something”.
[*] A prize for the first person to get the allusion here.
24. That’s a very useful link. It’s interesting that McCain is so consistently ahead with voters who plan to vote today. I guess that AA voters and other Obama supporters who fear election-day queues or irregularities (or have to work long hours) will be more likely to have voted early.
However, it does strike me that Obama not only has a better ground game but has an advantage when it comes to knocking-up. As Marf’s cartoon last night highlighted, Obama has generated much more excitement among his supporters than McCain has. All the activists on here will know the difference between knocking on a supporter’s door at 6pm on polling day to be told “I can’t be bothered - get lost”, and having a supporter say “yes, I need a lift but I’m determined to elect X or give Y a kicking”. Across most of America, and especially the key states where McCain appears to have closed the gap with Obama over the last few days, Obama’s ground team will surely get much the better reception today.
129, be nice to Oasis. They’re a decent band, in a pop world wherein dwells McFly.
It is Morris Dancer policy that rubbish bands who try to cover Queen (and fail enormously) should be hung upside down from Tower Bridge and used as targets by the United Kingdom Catapult and Stinkbomb Society during their annual general meeting.
119. Whoops not Maine
IG Index is showing the FTSE trading at above mirthios’s first optimistic milestone.
Mike- I do not think it is media narrative to say that Brown has acted decisively. Brown has- he has done a tremendous job at stabalising the Banks, something he will get much credit personally for in the long term. However, he will be unable to convert this into political capital- Glenrothes will still see the SNP win comfortably, and Labour are looking at meltdown in the 2009 elections, and the 2010 Parliamentaty elections with Gordon at the helm. As Churchill saw there is no room for sentiment in politics.
The British people are ready for a change. Barack’s landslide victory today will be a mega filip for Cameron and Osborne who are about to embark on a crest of their own wave.
By the way- hope the site is prepared for its biggest/busiest day in its life so far. A great credit to you Mike and your helpers who have created the most exciting political blogging site in the UK by a country mile.
A friend of mine always says that Oasis prove that The Verve were wrong!
Brown’s next gambit ? Forced lending ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/3374512/France-threatens-to-seize-banks-German-bail-outs-escalate.html
The French state has threatened to seize control of the country’s banks and fire top staff unless they do their part to stabilise the economy by stepping up lending to companies in need.
Have just found a very interesting article by Morus on the secret web site PoliticalBetting - Channel 2 ( http://tinyurl.com/5h934t ) - sorry don’t know how to make the words themselves provide the link. It seems that turnout in the US is not the percentage of the registered electorate but of the population as a whole. What would that do to the turnout figures in the UK?
In comments Edmundintokyo points us to http://tinyurl.com/5geoeq The Onions take on the accuracy of the US census.
Mike, any chance of a Link to Channel 2?
This is not good.
I find myself in 100% agreement with the Best of Bodmin Moor - is there anything I can take for this condition?
136 - the ironic thing about (hopefully) Obama’s victory today is that it will force the Tories to back him all the way… because anything less than Obama success will allow the Labour line of “this is no time to elect a novice” to gain traction…
Beast, not Best.
136. ‘Brown has- he has done a tremendous job at stabalising the Banks, something he will get much credit personally for in the long term’
Utter rubbish.
125. It won’t matter when it becomes a state itself.
Perhaps Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump should become a province of Canada on its own, as well. Then they could both secede, and form a federation. Then they could have a war, and split apart. Prince Harry could be appointed as King of Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump, and Stevie Wonder could be President of Dixville Notch.
“Personally, I think Obama may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter - a Democratic President elected in a fit of pique at the Republicans…”
It’s not “a fit of pique” if the Republicans genuinely f**ked up, which they did. Do battered wives walk out on their abusive husbands in “fits of pique” too?
139. Icarus:
This Wikipedia article explains how I just made that link.
75 — McCain won’t win, you Looney! You’ll be telling us there’s no famine in North Korea next…
143- I am glad to see Runnymede that you can be objective on all things Brown.
3/4 weeks ago we had a run on bank shares that threatened the banking sector, and to plummet our economy into catastrophic freefall. Someone was telling me the security services were already planning for imminent major civil unrest.
Brown’s actions were decisive, and brought stability back. What is “utter rubbish” about that?
I believe Lennon was referring to Paul McCartney as the best drummer in the Beatles. He played drums on Back in the USSR…
142. No, Best! I am the Best of Bodmin Moor! I like it! Though it may annoy the publican at the Jamaica Inn.
For those who need to cleanse the mental palate, of the sour aftertaste created by Oasis lyrics, here are the words to Steely Dan’s Cousin Dupree:
Well I’ve kicked around a lot since high school
I’ve worked a lot of nowhere gigs
From keyboard man in a rock’n ska band
To haulin’ boss crude in the big rigs
Now I’ve come back home to plan my next move
From the comfort of my Aunt Faye’s couch
When I see my little cousin Janine walk in
All I could say was ow ow ouch
CHORUS:
Honey how you’ve grown
Like a rose
Well we used to play
When we were three
How about a kiss for your cousin Dupree
She turned my life into a living hell
In those little tops and tight capris
I pretended to be readin’ the National Probe
As I was watchin’ her wax her skis
On Saturday night she walked in with her date
And backs him up against the wall
I tumbled off the couch and heard myself sing
In a voice I never knew I had before
CHORUS
I’ll teach you everything I know
If you teach me how to do that dance
Life is short and quid pro quo
And what’s so strange about a down-home family romance?
One night we’re playin’ gin by a cracklin’ fire
And I figured I’d make my play
I said: babe with my boyish charm and good looks
How can you stand it for one more day
She said: maybe its the skeevy look in your eyes
Or that your mind has turned to applesauce,
The dreary architecture of your soul;
I said - but what is it exactly turns you off?
Steely Dan, bless ‘em. Imagine what they could have done if they’d not been on heroin for twenty years.
123
wouldn’t surprise me.
But not H&S, more like control of things that go
BANG!
145. The biggest risk for Obama is the economy. He is being elected just as it enters recession, amid naive hopes that he can somehow magic the misery away with his God-given powers of oratory.
In fact, the next year is likely to be one of pretty unrelenting misery in the US, before a weak recovery takes hold in 2010. This will come as a big disappointment to Obama supporters - especially the fringe of young/ethnic/rare voters who are likely to put him over the line in a number of states. They may well be unwilling to turn out again next time around, reverting instead to their traditional cynical apathy.
148.”Brown’s actions were decisive, and brought stability back.”
Err, no they were not, in fact he did not even come up with the masterplan. He just tried to take all the credit for it here and abroad, that piece of political chicanery is about all he managed to be decisive about. Now, his proclamations and demands are getting more and more bizarre.
148, earlier in the year (May, or possibly March) Cameron was calling for recapitalisation. Brown had a year to come up with that, or to simply nick it from Cameron.
He handled the crisis pretty well, but it was largely his fault (through the inadequate regulatory structure he created and the dithering ever since the run on Northern Rock) that we reached that point.
36
Brown acted decisively - eventually - when there was no alternative…
Fans of Oasis, please explain what a ‘wonderwall’ is, and how it is possible to liken somebody to one.
Thanks LS But as the article that I think is relevant starts:
“Creates an element that becomes a hyperlink with the href (hypertext reference[5]) attribute set to a URL; additionally the attribute title may be set to a hover box text, some informative text about the link:…”
I am none the wiser!
148. ‘Someone was telling me the security services were already planning for imminent major civil unrest’
What a joker.
22
Interesting quote from Toynbee’the 50’s & 60’s saw a surge in upward mobility’
Wasn’t that when we had 14 years of Conservative governments and of course grammar schools?
I’m sure she didn’t intend an own goal.
155 to 136 o/c
In my 135, I wrote: IG Index is showing the FTSE trading at above mirthios’s first optimistic milestone.
Now confirmed (after delay!) by Yahoo! Finance. 11 years of moderate growth, followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession has seen the FTSE100 return to the figure inherited from John Major on 2nd May 1997.
Whether it’ll hold it by the close, I’ll see when I wake up. I’m heading to bed - have a good day everyone.
156 Not a fan of Oasis but Wonderwall was a 60’s film starring Jane Birkin which had a soundtrack by George Harrison. My understanding is that was what Oasis were referencing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderwall_(film)
131 LS
Ooo ooo, I know - it’s Sucks To Be Me from Avenue Q. Best. musical. evar.
157. Just before I go to bed, I’ll try this and hope it works:
[a href="http://politicalbetting.com"]Political Betting[/a] gives Political Betting when you replace the square brackets with angle brackets. Ignore the bit about the optional “title”, as I don’t think it works here anyway.
163 - it should work if the browser is compatible, but let me see…
politicalbetting.com
164 - yes, title=”blah blah” does work, for me on Firefox anyway
149 - Not that I am obssessed with this… but Lennon never said that quote. Never has something that has never been said been over analysed!
So for PoliticalBetting - Channel 2 Click on this:
PoliticalBetting Channel 2
Still think Mike should provide a link!
It worked!!!!!
Smileys next!
157.”I am none the wiser!”
Icarus, this might help. Commenting guidelines
If I can do it…. and I am really hopeless at anything technical on the computer.
136 - Come off it! Brown is incapable of taking a decisive action. Others in government made the decisions, Brown was left in no doubt whatsover of the consequences of failing to nod them through immediately, and the job was done.
148 - I’m sure the security services have planned for civil unrest in these circumstances a long time ago. It’s simply a case of digging out the file and blowing off the dust. In the modern age of food on demand and no larders, society is only 3 meals away from complete breakdown.
148. Talking about ‘civil unrest’, the other week i heard possibly the most cynical thing ever in my entire life…
the reason why the British Government was keen to have Gurkha troops stationed in the UK, is that British soldiers could not be relied on to shoot into a crowd of English (as oppose to northern irish, thats ok) civilians during a period of unrest, but the Ghurkas will do as thay are told and would have no such qualm.
McCain now 16 with Betfair – price seems to have collapsed in last hour.
171. Why not use Scottish troops in England and vice versa ?
Obviously there would be a queue of troops wanting to be stationed in Wales
170 - It is a good job I have a sturdy cellar crammed with canned goods from the 1970s. They said I was crazy but who’s laughing now?
I can’t believe we’re discussing the best albums of all time. Any fool knows that the answers are:
Johnny Cash Live in San Quentin
Prince: Around the World in a Day
Happy Mondays: Pills, Thrills and Bellyaches
Morning, any chance anyone could put up IG’s current spread on US Electoral College votes? I see SPIN co 350-356 now, but I can’t access IG…. Thanks in advance!
89 posts an hour! Will today be a record? Hows the server going to hold up, Robert?
I see Robert as the engineer on the Starship Enterprise with the equivalent of an electronic oil can in his hand - “I cant hold it Captain, she’s going to blow”
171 That’s a truly disgraceful slur on the morality and loyalty of the Gurkhas. Repeat that statement in their company, and see what happens. Shame on you.
For a link to Channel 2, click on the box just below the main thread that says “There’s more news, analysis and discussion on PB Channel 2″
Also, can I advise that everyone bookmark the link in case of a traffic-seizure tonight
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com
If the site goes down, the very worst thing people can do is try to get on, or click refresh. Come to Channel 2 to continue the discussion, and we’ll let you know when the main site is back up and running.
We have got some measures in place tonight, but this will be the contingency plan if all else fails.
176
following whats the story, it would be abbey rd, sgt pepper and revolver…
Then, to show my complete lack of coolness, Tubular Bells….
173.”171. Why not use Scottish troops in England and vice versa ?”
Funny you should mention that. Been digging around the history of Highland Regiments back in the late 1700’s. It seems that this has been a wee bit of a problem which has exercised our rulers for more than 200 years.
175 - You’ll be laughing due to the brain damaging effects of botulism and metal poisoning, after eating 38 year old tinned tuna.
179. Actually its a slur on this evil and immoral government, not the ghurkas.
Dont think IG have a market on US election
173. If you predict a landslide there is still value is on the “states won” market.
[178] All Robert needs to do is block posts about songs and bands and we’ll be fine…
181. Tubular Bells, the first album I ever bought.
And how can the album that launched the entire Richard Branson Galactic Empire not be a contender for greatest of all time?
185. There’s one up there I think Icarus. I just can’t see the prices at work!
Why do you think we had the Gurkas canvassing for the Lib Dems in Henley? - They wont fire on Lib Dem voters!
157, Icarus @ 09:48
“I am none the wiser!”
Possibly not, merely better informed.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist it.
Sorry downandout my IG screen only has UK under politics.
167. there is no such thing as society
176. what was the first album to go platinum on vinyl, cassette, and CD?
Best albums of all time:
Pixies - Surfer Rosa
Pixies - Doolittle
and maybe
Violent Femmes - Violent Femmes
I tend to share Seant’s views on Oasis. But I must admit, I recently revisited Definitely Maybe and was surprised to find it’s actually really rather good. Just a pity they chose to follow it up with fifteen years of half-arsed droney identikit pub rock.
192. Strange! Maybe needs refreshing? There’s def a USA section under politics now.
The odds on Glenrothes are really shifting - Labour now out to 2/1, the SNP tightening to 1/2.
Has something happened in the last two days to explain this? Did I miss a poll, or what?
I hope it’s based on evidence. But I still fear Labour will sneak through.
I bought ‘Out of Control’ by Girls Aloud yesterday. I’m throwing that into the frame. No?
196 - SeanT, I repost my post 21 for you:
Those betting on Glenrothes (I’m not) might want to read Iain Macwhirter’s take on the by-election:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/04/glenrothes-labour-snp-scotland
Mr Macwhirter, who is generally opposed to Scottish Nationalists while swallowing whole many of their most intellectually dishonest justifications for gorging Scotland with money, seems to think that the SNP will win.
196. Doesnt 2/1 represent good value if you think Labour are going to win?
197 - I LIKE Girls Aloud. And I liked Steps. There, I’ve said it.
Thanks ChristinaD
Liked the ConHome comment policy, on the same page:
“All impersonations of another person - a public figure or otherwise - will result in an immediate and permanent ban (including your unique IP address).
Homophobic, racist or other hateful posts will also result in permanent bans.
Bad language, personal nastiness or posts that are in favour of the European Union and any of its works, may be deleted and their authors may be subject to temporary or permanent bans.
The decision of the Editors is final with regard to any bans.”
I suppose it would reduce pressure on PB’s server, if we adopted similar rules!
Echoing the points made above about lefties in the political parts of the Telegraph. Today 7.40AM Telegraph reporter about Glenrothes.
“Labour has closed an earlier gap in the odds and the parties are now rated equally likely to win.”
http://tinyurl.com/5wswjf
WRONG.
SNP are clear favourites.
199 2-1 is a pretty good price for labour in what will surely be a photo finish whoever wins.
O/T Tote Ten To Follow Competition
The PB entry is now fully subscribed and no further additions to the syndicate will be permitted.
Thanks to all who expressed an interest. More details will follow shortly on PB2 shortly.
Girls Aloud are the single finest pop act of the last twenty years.
And I will fight barebreast to the death with anyone who says differently.
“Biology” is one of the finest examples of pop ever created. EVEN BETTER than Mama Mia by Abba. Yes, that good.
201. Good to see that the Conservatives are once again a broad church on Europe.
Churchill and Macmillan must be turning in their graves.
196 Our Leader spoke about Glenrothes yesterday. That is surely why the markets moved
Disaster for Labour at Glenrothes. Prescott in charge. Lol
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3376901/John-Prescott-to-lead-last-Labours-last-push-in-Glenrothes.html
Any thoughts about Gordo prancing about the Middle East for the IMF. Did they ask him to go, or are we close to needing help
Another thought is he looking for a job?
205 - Whatever!
Jack - I confess - I slightly amended ConHome’s policy on comments!
@204:
What is/was this sinister cartel?
205. They absolutely are. It’s more to do with Xenomania who have produced the last 4 albums entirely than the group itself but nevertheless they have produced the most accomplished pop music to come out of Britain in years. The fact that they were borne out of reality teleivison, and a very shoddy version of it at that, is all the more remarkable.
200. I’m about to go out now, so I feel I can risk this. I really liked… Busted.
Indeed I genuinely think they were one of the best pure pop bands Britain has produced in a decade - our version of the Beach Boys. AND their lyrics were funny, and make the drivel produced by Oasis look like the ponderous twaddle it was.
Here are the lyrics to Busted’s Year 3000.
One day
When I came home
At lunchtime
I heard a funny noise
Went out To the back yard
To find out if it was one of those Russian boys
Stood there, was my neighbour peter,
And a flux capacitor.
He told me he built a time-machine
Like one in a film I’ve seen(yeah)
He said: I’ve been to the year 3000
Not much has changed but they live underwater
And your great-great-great-granddaughter
Is pretty fine.
Any band that can wittily work the phrase “flux capacitor” into a very tuneful song frankly deserves the Pulitzer.
And now I shall, erm, quickly head off.
You’re actually all wrong about the best album. It is Thunder and Consolation by New Model Army.
On topic, I’m not sure how the media narrative, and the reporting of polls, is actually effecting peoples views. I suspect not by much.
I had a call from a friend a couple of days ago. He is a conservative supporter but doesn’t follow things as closely as I do. He was genuinely concerned about the polling sutuation, as he believed that all the current polls that he was aware of were showing a single figure lead. He had been almost talked round by the media to believing that Labour would be back level in another few weeks.
The thing is, whatever he believed, it wouldn’t change his vote. There are probably a small number of people who will vote for the “winning team”, but in another couple of months, the media story of Brown saving the world will be forgotten and I’m sure the polls will move back.
As the spread markets seem to follow the media narrative as much as the polls, I think it’s been wise for people to be buying Labour at the moment. There’s plenty of opportunity to change back to the Conservatives around the end of the year and take profits as the market fluctuates each way.
I’d certainly recommend that Labour buyers get out soon though. They are not far off as good as they will be this side of the election.
211. Aha. It seemed so realistic though…
@210:
Woooo, no she dih-unt!?
[211] I swallowed it too, Icarus - but only to the extent of going there to check. You’re a very naughty boy.
205 - Martin - you’re doing nothing to dispel any stereotypes here, you know?
Dont worry, Martin [212] you haven’t lost anything - unlike those of us who have invested in PtP’s Save the Tote for the Nation Fund!
@219:
I admit it. I’m a walking Tory stereotype. Pah.
Has this site become a pop festival then?
And if so, are there any songs worth a bet?
209 Gordon has solved the middle east problem. A true superhero.
223, has he threatened to run their economies if they don’t become peaceful at once?
Come on guys, it’s POLLING DAY. Let’s get back to the matter in hand.
Here is CNN’s policy on projecting winners.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/projection.explainer/
If you dont want to look at a long list of poll closing times, look at this map.
(Ahhh I am so happy I can put links in words now!)
222. I’m helping compile an early market for the 2009 Mercury Music Prize, which will be up at ladbrokes once this stupid election finally finishes.
224
@225:
I think Obama’s going to win. Where do I claim my prize?
223.”Gordon Brown hopeful for quick Middle East peace deal”
OMG! That has got to be the best Brownie proclamation yet. Does he think he is standing on his father’s pulpit these days?
I am waiting for someone to update the lyrics to that Ghostbusters song, with a list of all the worlds problems and Brown popping up in a superman costume at the bit where they sing “who are you going to call”.
224 - you missed a strategic ‘i’ in that!
Thanks downandout [195] That worked. IG EVs for Obama is 346-352, McCain 186-192
re 180 I’ve bookmarked it in readiness. Any book on when channel 1 will go down tonight
or perhaps 
231.I think it works both ways.
labour at 3 to 1 on betfair (thats 4.00 in new money)
The Cameron quote concerning re-capitalisation of the banks has been mentioned so many times - can anyone find the actual quotation and context? It might finally silence the endless comments about GB’s decisive action in saving the banking system - on the other hand, it may not even be true.
O/T - Lord Mandelson has been “open” about Deripaska apparantly.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7707719.stm
232. Thanks a lot Icarus!
Pretty big discrepancy between SPIN (250-256) and IG (346-352) again then.
I see this site is starkly divided musically between, on the one hand, pretentious morons and, on the other, tasteless morons.
Jolly good. I am a massive fan of the Auteurs and have a soft spot for Transvision Vamp. I hope this helps.
Any idea’s on the number of bad news items that the government will push out today while all the attention is on the American elections.
They really are sleekit on days like this.
Just a reminder that anyone who would like to come along to the Trading Floor in London this evening should drop me an e-mail at morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com.
We’ll be starting from about 8pm, and Harry McAdam at EliteBet has got us free use of the workstations and some (free) drinks.
Drop me a mail if you and any others would like to come along, and I’ll send you the details.
Regards
Morus
@239:
Can’t I be pretentious and tasteless? Like Paul Morley? I could wank on for hours about the mesoerotic intertextualities of Can’t Get You Out Of My Head.
Think SPIN is 350 - 356 downandout otherwise we would all be on it!
233 - Cheeky!
238 Yes, interesting shift in the SPIN Obama EV spreads today. After drifting down a couple of days ago, and then sitting at 340-346, it’s now moved rapidly up to 350-356. Seems odd, because I can’t see that there’s anything new today to indicate a big shift.
The nervous may want to take profits. I can’t decide if I’m nervous.
243. Doh!
239 - Pretentious and tasteless, moi? (I preferred Black Box Recorder).
237. He apparently wants us to believe issues like tariffs and quotas were never discussed at his meetings with Deripaska. Perhaps they discussed philosophy or greyhound racing instead?
236, it was on a ConHome article perhaps 3 weeks ago.
Even were it untrue, the endless balls spoken by Brown (no more boom and bust and housing market stability being the most obvious) are enough to sink him.
I particularly enjoyed the Boulton interview some time ago where he blamed the Tories for his sale of gold. Apparently, under the Conservatives, we had too much gold and needed to diversify, so Brown swapped 3 tons of gold for a shiny button and five pickled eggs.
247, for pure guitar wa*k, listen to this guy on youtube….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgzqKPBwJ6A
@241:
Morus, when you say ’some’ free drinks, does that mean I should bring a bottle?
I suspect that there’ll be much mood for celebrating and/or commiserating.
245 It was probably the early Zogby poll and early voting from that little New Hampshire place that triggered it, Richard.
Also, Shadsy reported last nite that some high-rollers waded into Obama at 1/12 when the news about his grandmother broke.
237 - I think the slippery Lord currently has a very hot backside, thanks to a conflagration in his underpants. His definition of the truth is on a par with Bill ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman’ Clinton.
247 - (This is) Sarah Nixey (talking) has a sexy voice I will grant you but the Auteurs are probably lyrically stronger.
If you don’t all know that the undisputed best album ever is the prog-rock hymn to libertarianism that is 2112 by Rush then I pity you.
252. Has any other hamlet in the world with a population of under 80 has ever received so much publicity? Answers on a postcard to the usual address.
249.”Apparently, under the Conservatives, we had too much gold and needed to diversify, so Brown swapped 3 tons of gold for a shiny button and five pickled eggs.”
Did the interviewer bother to point out that we might be have been better off not diversifying, or now under Labour we don’t have enough gold?
“Oasis [are] Slade on very bad Ecstasy”
Agreed.
251 - Never hurts to bring a bottle, but Harry tells me he ordered drinks but didn’t have time to invite the people he was plannign to ask, so the drink to person ratio could be pretty good!
248 - Doesn’t add up does it. Lord Mandelson is basically saying that he and Deripaska met up loads of times, never discussed anything other than the weather and we are just going to have to take his word for it.
[257] Wasn’t the gold sold for securities denominated in foreign currencies? Gold doesn’t bring in interest, which presumably what it was sold for did.
And no, I don’t know what proportion of the reserves should be held in gold, and I don’t believe anyone else does either. Doubtless I will pointed in the direction of an authoritative pronunciamento by Mr Osborne (or, knowing this place, John Redwood).
A few thoughts on today’s discussions:
The Brown/Labour ‘recovery’ was always more media spin than the public view. As I’ve said before there will be little credit for handling a crisis well when you helped create the crisis.
Oasis are good - Definitely Maybe a classic - but not a patch on The Stone Roses without whose groundbreaking debut album Oasis would never have happened. They are good live.
Pulp’s Common People is indeed fantastic and strikes a real chord with any of us who were gawky teenagers growing up in the north in the 70s/80s.
Obama is likely to win and big. I am always wary of just reading the headline polls, but every other bit of poll data, and particularly the early voting, back up the headlines this time.
I am now expecting to win on Obama winning, on half a dozen states and on the EC vote. On this last one the only danger is that I have underestimated the scale of the win.
C-SPAN2 are showing the Canadian coverage of the US election. Don’t worry, they aint showing the UK coverage, so they wont see Jeremy Vine interpreting the results in the form of break dancing.
255 I’m more of a Farewell to Kings man myself
161
Brown bought bonds.
They tanked.
265 to 261
(must keep up)
Best Oasis ALbum - got to be ‘Definitely Maybe’. At the time it sounded like nothing else around. The live feel of the recording of the album just adds a level of drive not found in later oasis stuff. Add this to the quality B sides from this early time and i will say I liked the early Oasis.
Best Album of all time - difficult to say. Probably Abbey Road as I love songs that run into one another / reprises.
261.We have had this discussion on here many times, he flooded the market at rock bottom prices despite being advised against it.
263- “C-SPAN2 are showing the Canadian coverage…”
Should make it clear that they *start* showing the coverage at about 1am GMT.
262. PTB (and other posters), how do you reconcile your belief in Obama winning big with the polls coming out of Missouri and North Carolina? I’m predicting 338-200, with those two states and Indiana staying in the GOP column, and Obama just sneaking Ohio and Florida.
252. Do the markets really move on the results of a tiny hamlet in NH????
For any contrarians amongst us on the US election this analysis might of interest….
http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/
150 I had a very pleasant meal at The Jamaica Inn t’other day.
The weather was bit cold and wet for a walk on the Moor though.
271 - They do when it votes nearly 3-1 for a Democrat, and it is the first time in 40 years. Dixville Notch has gone heavily republican in the last few years.
@270:
Differential turnout.
Obama will outperform polls in trad-red states. My fiscal rectitude counts on it.
272, paraphrased: “Everybody else is wrong, even Karl Rove, I’m right.”
274- http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/is-dixville-notch-predictive.html
“They [Oasis] are good live.”
Not band, but I prefer Kasabian. Not a patch on the Who or Led Zep or the Stones or Queen (although I am not a fan).
“Definitely Maybe’. At the time it sounded like nothing else around. ”
The Stone Roses did it better, and earlier.
272. That is a very bold article. Will be interesting to visit the site on Wednesday.
272. This bit seemed interesting -
Pennslyvania has been grossly misreported on this election cycle. During the Democrat primary, union bosses approached Hillary Clinton and said, “Promise us you will not put Obama as your Veep and you will have our support.” The moment Obama become the nominee was when he lost Pennslyvania. Obama has been spending money like a drunken sailor in the state, blasting the state full of advertising, but it isn’t working. The famous Philly machine won’t be at Obama’s disposal as the governor, Rendell, is a Clinton supporter , and he has been hinting at Pennslyvania going red by the mysterious leak of the Obama internal campaign poll of PA being +2 a couple of weeks ago and publicly asking Obama to come back to the state as well as saying that things are ‘tightening’ there. The evidence that PA is going red should be with how the safe Democrat seats are becoming suddenly competitive. Rendell is a Democrat and doesn’t want to lose house seats which is another reason to ask Obama to come back.
New thread: DANGER Exit Polls ahead
Agreed that if Obama can’t take a state that even Gore and Kerry managed he’s in trouble, but how many Pennslyvia polls have put McCain in the lead, let alone level?
Yes, that article sounds confident — but so do HIV-denialists and Holocaust-revisionists.
You guys are so narrow.
Best Album? The Fitzwilliam String Quartet’s version of the fifteen quartets of Dmitri Shostakovich. Amazing stuff, and number 8 just about heavenly.
Malcolm
I’m 98% certain this is a completely crazy thought but…
Alaska 15-1 on Betfair. There was a poll there yesterday putting Obama within 2-3 points - though it was massively out of line with every other poll in the state. RCP doesn’t have anything in the 2-3 days before that but I can’t see anything to create such a shift.
In normal circumstances I’d say an Obama win was was complete nonsense but I was wondering what effect a combination of the following would have on Republican turnout.
1) If there is an Obama blowout Republican voters might not be motivated to vote as the election will effectively be over before they get the chance.
2) Republican voters are likely to be even less motivated by the need to vote in the Senate race.
3) Similar to the President the House will be done and dusted by the time people are thinking about voting.
4) Democrats will still be motivated to vote as they will want to have a “tell the grand-children” moment.
About the only West Wing parallel we’ve not had in this election has been with Horton Wilde (previous election I know). If there is a severe snow storm in the early evening.
I shall now return to the padded room…..
280- Between the 24th Oct and 1st Nov, the polls have been between Obama +4 and +14. Four polls released on the 1st had Obama at +6, +7,+8 and +14. While the polls may be wrong, there must be something strange going on if the Pennsylvania polls are the *only* ones that are wrong!
Having said that, I’m still very nervous about Pennsylvania.
285. Quite - so what I am suggesting is there may be some value in the current price. A modest suggestion that brings hysterical responses like 282.
Even though antifrank is unsound on politicians, I agree with him that Girls Aloud isn’t bad and Steps were OK too.
seanT’s flux capacitator example is admittedly pretty impressive. As with politicians like McCain, I admire bands who are willing to baffle and annoy their fans. Like any serious Abba anorak (the 4-CD Abba collection is all the music one ever needs, really), I have the original Swedish collection too, and one of the quirks is that the original Fernando is a straight love song, but when they translated it into English they made it into a song about the Mexican-American war, from the point of view of the *Mexicans*, and cheerfully sold it to the US market. Very Swedish!
196. Sean , its people getting information on the ground rather than the previous rubbish presented by the biased labour rags. As previously stated there is no chance of labour winning this , SNP had 1200 people canvassing at weekend , Labour had some MP’s up from England and a handful of locals.
235. It would still be wasted money , reality has returned as real information gets out rather than the Labour propaganda.
288 - if you read the Iain MacWhirter column in the Gaurdian you should read some of the comments below it. One claims the SNP rooms were shut nearly all weekend and not a sole to be seen. Well some people will believe what they want to. A couple of hundred out last night after 6.