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Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?

November 5th, 2008


    Will it be a humiliation for Gord?

As has been reported here before the date for the Glenrothes by-election was originally fixed for tomorrow because it was hoped that in the US election aftermath then yet another Labour defeat would hardly get noticed.

Well things have changed since the date was set and we are now experiencing the renaissance of Gordon following his actions in the bank bailout crisis. Although this has hhad hardly any impact on the voting intention polls it has certainly changed the atmosphere within the Westminster village and there have been suggestions that the party could hold on.

He and his wife have been bold enough to do what is highly unusual for a Prime Minister – get involved in the campaign which, after all, is on his door-step in Fife. The problem is that that adds to the risk should Labour lose. For Gord’s personal association will make a defeat appear that much worse.

The betting chart above shows changing perception amongst punters to Labour’s chances. A big boost early last week when the price touched evens and since then a period of decline. As I write you can get 2/1 on the party on Betfair.

The big move back came after the weekend with the reports of the massive effort the SNP have been able to put into the ground war.

We shall see.

Mike Smithson






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