Are MPs reading Glenrothes right?
November 6th, 2008
Why the split with the media views?
This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife - and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it.
Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for the Nationalists. That puts them at odds with the politicians on the panel. They are MPs and peers, among them senior Ministers and Opposition frontbenchers, from all the main parties. A heavy majority of the politicians are predicting that Labour will hold the seat.”
What we are seeing here, I suggest, is that the politicians, believe that the transformation in the confidence of Brown that they have witnessed in recent weeks will translate itself into real votes in this election. Certainly the mood amongst MPs is very different from the betting markets where the firm view is that the SNP will take the seat.
If the SNP do win tonight this will further confirm my view that you often get a better view of what is going on in the country away from Westminster. Those who work in Parliament sometimes overstate the importance of the place.
Our cartoon is an original by Marf from LondonSketchbook.com.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No!
and Second
for edp, ‘Lest we Forget’
Posted By: David Hughes at Nov 6, 2008 at 13:33:00 [General]
Posted in: Politics , Business , Three Line Whip
Tags:Black Wednesday , John Major , Norman Lamont
The last time there was such a buzz about an interest rate change was on September 16, 1992 which became known, according to taste, as either Black Wednesday or White Wednesday for it accompanied the UK’s ejection from the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). Given that this ushered in the decade and a half long boom which is now so painfully screeching to a halt, I’d go for White Wednesday.
The atmosphere that day was electric. Norman - now Lord - Lamont, the Tory Chancellor, ramped up interest rates from 10 per cent to 12 per cent to try to shore up sterling. When that failed, he increased them from 12 to 15 per cent. There was the smell of raw panic in the air. Downing Street had been emptied because the decorators were in, so Prime Minister John Major, Lamont and other senior ministers had convened in Admiralty House to “mastermind” this momentous day’s events.
Some masterminding. It emerged later they did not have a clue what as going on. One of them had to borrow a transistor radio so they could find out what the rest of the world already knew - that Lamont’s measures were not working. Despite the unprecedented 50 per cent increase in the cost of borrowing and the expenditure of billions in reserves to shore up sterling, the Pound continued to head south, falling below its floor level in the ERM. So out of the ERM we came - and the economy never looked back. Is today’s rate shock going to produce an equally happy outcome?
Three Line Whip home
I find that PH depends to much on biased politicians who cannot differentiate between heart and head.
Looks like Nationalists by 2000 then?
Bit of a cakewalk.
Thanks Mike.
This is another opportunity for PB.com to comprehensively outplay the Poor House 100. Make sure you rub their noses in it Mike.
Nice cartoon.
From Politica Home: “Fifty one per cent of the panel are now forecasting that the campaigning by the Prime Minister and his wife in the constituency will be repaid with a win for Labour. That’s down ten points from when we last asked the question a week ago.”
If Labour have dropped 10% since Brown visited - how is this good for Labour?
Sounds as if it is an SNP win!
3. I’m not sure what your point is. Interest rates reached 15% for one day, and then dropped steadily.
(unless Labour win, obv, PtP)
Two major electoral events in one week.
Not sure I can cope.
Perhaps a political junkies support group wouldn’t be out of the question?
3 Ah, the events of one day, 16 years ago. Such a relevance now. Not.
Besides, I thought that His Excellency, The Supreme Leader had decreed that there was no history before 1997?
3 In 1992 the government was behind the curve - although sterling was obviously grossly overvalued at its then ERM parity Major and co refused to believe it until the markets forced their hand.
This time Brown & co saw the writing on the wall for the banks in time (but only just) and bailed them out before they were forced to. Whether this will ultimately have a happy outcome for Brown remains to be seen, but so far his government has handled the crisis better than Major’s did and this is reflected in the polls - Majopr’s ratings fell after Black Wednesday, Brown’s rose after the bank bailout.
8 indeed, its a bit like stating we needed to be bailed out by the IMF in the 70s under Labour - true but barely relevant to today.
It was valid campaigning material for Blair in 97, it had ceased to be an issue by 2001 and by 2005 was a dim memory when set agaisnt the sins of the current regime which are far more pressing and relevant to the average voter.
I thought Francis Fukuyama had decreed that there was no history after 1989?
You have just given me another reason to hope Labour lose.
Anything that gives a sharp dig in the ribs to the navel gazing Westminster village idiots has to be good.
What surprises me is why the media narrative has stayed with ‘Gordon’s recovery’ if the commentators are really pessimistic about Labour’s chances. It suggests they think they might have got it wrong and are waiting for proof and/or an opportunity/excuse to row back.
Makes today quite important.
Off thread. At last SKY news have reported someone saying we are one of the worst placed economies - even if it was just in passing.
Osborne said it earlier. The Tories need to be all over the airwaves today to hammer this home and to highlight the difference betweeen our rate cut and that of the Euro zone.
But no one has been able to explain why our interest rate has been so much higher than the EU for so long.
It is still 3 times the US rate!
Coldstone has forgotten the most damning piece of evidence - that was in the 1880’s a Tory Government was responsible for the loss of one job amungst the public utility horse shit cleaners in the Borough of Kensington.
8/11/13
I think its only fair to point out, that all governments will have their ups and downs, some times they deal with them well, some times they don’t.
I agree. I find it genuinely surprising how the politics home poll in particular,ut also the coverage in the press, is so at odds with real polls and the opinion in the country.
15 Sally, the media are just trying to engineer a close contest - however I expect them to change tack fairly soon and start hsmmering Labour for the economic conditions.
I’d be interested in what odds are available as Brown and/or Darling being portrayed as The Grinch in the mainstream papers after the PBR…
8 In reality of course the huge majority of people were never exposed to 15% interest rates as the few hours they went up didn’t affect mortgages, loans or savings rates.
They were frightening hours though for millions of people - I was on a beach on a late holiday and saw adults ashen faced, some wives in tears as they packed up early on hearing the news which passed like wildfire. It was that fear, that sudden window into bankcruptcy or tightened circumstances, that destroyed Major & Lamont - they were so focussed on “saving the pound in the ERM” they forgot that what they were doing was harming or could harm millions.
Lower interest rate will encourage investment in economic activities. Should encourage those just “sitting” on their money to do something with it. Should have happened years ago.
12. This time Brown & co saw the writing on the wall for the banks in time.
No bank run on Northern Rock then? Or another year before Brown & Co thought about recapitilisation of banks?
18 agreed entirely - there is no government without inanity, its all about degrees
17
And despite putting your grandfather on the dole, you’re still a Tory!
21 I agree. It was the fear; I had just given up work after the birth of my first child. It passed quickly - but I still remember it.
19 etc It is really quite simple. They are deluding themselves about the real situation.
“Oh look we do not have to get some courage and oust Brown because his people are telling us that he is doing so well and the country have fallen back in love with him”. “He is the man to save us from this crisis that he helped create” (Shurely shome mistake on the last quote?)
I agree with what you say about Westminster. I find it genuinely surprising how the politics home poll in particular, and also the coverage in the press, is so at odds with real polls and the opinion in the country. MPS and the hangers-on in Fleet Street and the broadcast media seem to exist in their own little world and spend far too much time talking to one another and not enough to us. (There are some honourable exceptions.) It seems to be the role of the internet to puncture that bubble and by-pass the increasingly irrelevant punditry. Of course, one way to advance that process would be to disrupt the internet dominance of the BBC …. (cue endless arguments! sorry)
4. I think it’s likely to be more self-awareness of how a poll saying MPs think Labour will lose would look in the media.
re 12 Oh God not this lie again. How many times do you have to try and correct it. Look at the ICM Guardian polls - Mike has a link below. In Oct 1992 the Tories were 1% below their September figure (well within the marging of error) and by January 1993 were back up to their September rating (taken before black Wednesday).
It was Lamont’s 1993 budget which did for the Tories - look again at the ICM polls - and the inevitable tax rises. If Labour supporters think that their ratings are back on the recoverey then they have a nasty shock coming in April.
21. On a beach in mid-September? Presumably, not an English one?
25. Your showing your age their!
It would be a Great - Great Grandfather for me then!
I think one was Blacksmith, one was a Pit owner, another one was a Lord! The other one was a Surgeon IIRC!
The SNP can afford a swing a third less than Glasgow East and still win the seat…
A 14.3% swing should be easy-peasy for them. A Labour hold would be a surprise, and something of a triumph…
25. Being a Tory his grandfather saw a business opportunity and shovelled it up for free selling it to the local garden centre.
Labour fall 18% behind on eve of the election
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/nz-labour-faces-wipeout-new-poll-shows/2008/11/06/1225561044594.html
oh, in New Zealand
IMF forecast first full year shrinkage for Western economies since WW2 - ugh
Notice how the predictions are being ratcheted up in grim intensity slowly but surely?
22 Sorry Icarus that isn’t going to happen. Banks will pocket the difference, anyone with savings will now hold onto their money even tighter than before, and no-one of sound mind is going to ‘invest’ in any business for the forseeable future.
Read between the lines - the mother of all economic storms is almost upon us. Anyone with any sense has been saving money for just that reason.
21 Yes and it was particularly humiliating for the UK as a nation and for Major personally since he had speculated that sterling would replace the DM as the strongest currency in the ERM only a few weeks before. Now everyone is bailing out banks - even the late George W Bush - and so Brown’s position is no different from that of other world leaders.
30. Exactly. The budget is the key. Labour’s numbers collapsed after Darlings’ “do-nothing” budget this March. A key question is what have Labour to offer in the PBR this month and the budget next spring? If its nothing substantial then people will assume that the Government has nothing to offer them and will look elsewhere.
30 I thought too, but I wasn’t sure and couldn’t be botherede to look it up.
Although I still think the SNP will take Glenrothes (and hope for it too) I think the impact will be severely limited.
The huge cut, coupled with other bad news stories, will probably dominate the airwaves, with a brief mention of mid-term blues or some other excuse for losing with a five figure majority.
Should Labour keep it, the splash would be a little louder, but not much.
The effect will not be great on the public, but of more importance to Brown and Salmond. Tories and Lib Dems should also check their own scores to see how tactical voting could play out in the GE.
“I had just given up work after the birth of my first child. It passed quickly - but I still remember it.”
Well done Sally - some women make so much fuss about having babies!
40, scorched earth. Borrowing, borrowing and more borrowing. They might be saving up ditching ID cards and the Stasi database to pretend it’s a saving.
43. LOL. Thought it read badly but I’d already posted it!
Westminster are the same as economists (or most of them).
There was a vocal minority here in February/March 2008 saying there would be a recession late this year. We were mocked. The economists forecast no recession. The Government forecast 2.5% GDP growth.
Less than 9 months later and here we are: emergency and panic rate cuts, a economy in full reverse gear and a BOE so out of touch with the real world it is frightening.
I say the economy is in full reverse gear as the rate of decline is increasing.
Westminster and economists live in a parallel universe of missed forecast,oligarchs, yachts and PMQs which are a farce. On any quantitative performamce assessment they offer no value for money.
44 Mentioned scrapping ID cards before, as a popular pre-election boost.
Brown’s “campaigning” in Glenrothes consisted of a couple of behind-locked-doors meetings with hand-picked Labour supporters.
His wife door-stepped a few more of the same shrinking breed.
What does this tell us?
Incidentally, did you see the shot in last weekend’s paper of Lindsay Roy cowering in Brown’s footsteps looking like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights?
I suspect he wishes he’d stuck to headmastering!
47, I think they should (and will have to) do it earlier, otherwise both opposition parties can hammer them on all fronts (practicality, cost, freedom) for months/years.
19.But even the Tory-leaning amongst the press have bought into the story, and they don’t want to delude themselves. I think it’s a problem to do with the class aspect - not in the marxist sense, but in the sense that there is a group of people in politics and the media who have inter-bred and who socialise together and who conduct politics inside their own set of assumptions, only occasionally awoken by the inconvenience of an election. It’s very bad for our democracy. I suggest open primaries would be an excellent reform. Thereby safe seats would almost disappear and apparatchiks couldn’t be moved into the HoC from some think tank. Frank Field and Carswell/Hannan have both proposed this in recent years.
I wonder if the SNP are heading for a five figure Majority in Glenrothes?
It does not meet with the media Narrotive but there is only a couple of hours of daylight left! Would you turn out to support a shit government in cold & dark?
49 - Peripherally to ID cards, Guido is reporting that NO2ID have obtained a copy of Jackie Smith’s finderpints. I dread to think how, and have no idea what they plan to do with them. But they have them.
46. i rember being at a seminar in the Botanical Grdens in Birmingham as margaret Thatcher was resigning. One of the speakers was Peter Kellner of YouGov fame, then a Political Commentator. When I suggested Major would be the next Prime Minister his reply was “No way”. As my old Chemistry Master used to say: if an expert says black, it is more likely to be white.
51, no. I’d cackle for a long time should it occur, but just can’t see it.
52, hehehe. I hope they have fun with it.
52. How hard can it be. Politicians go to loads of community events/dinners etc. Probably the easiest thing in the world to snag a wineglass or something.
Having seen the interest rate drop perhaps I should have risked my pension lump sum on an Obama victory after all.
42 But surely the interesting point of Mike’s piece is that those inside Westminster have the highest hopes.
This suggests that its they who have bought into the media narrative most. If it turns out to be wrong, then it will change the mood within the party.
If Labour MPs recent confidence about the possibilty of retaining their seats evaporates, they will undermine Gordon even if there is no immediate media frenzy
51 - Think we need to be careful on Glenrothes… The message has clearly gone out to the likes of Brogan in the Mail that Labour expect to lose. Is it too machievellian* to think they are actually pretty confident, but want to be able to say “We have won against all the odds and in the face of a media which had written us off! A miracle, due solely to the presence of the Great Helmsman and his Sainted Wife”.
*Is is possible to be too machievellian now that Lord Mandy and the Campbell are back on the scene? (Answer - No)
46. Yes the multiplier effect is kicking in!
Those of us who said recession were coming were abused as you say!
The number of shops i am starting to see boarded up is alarming.
I am started to think this country wil be on its knees in a couple of months. Shocking times indeed.
Daily Mash hits the spot about us poor white guys.
re 52 fairly simply I’d have imagined - a glass used at lunch and a roll of Scotch tape would suffice.
57, I meant the impact on the polls will be insignificant. You’re absolutely right about the possibility of more serious problems for Brown, and possibly some for Salmond.
However, Brown won’t go. They’ve baulked too many times at the fence.
Royal Worcester and Spode, founded 250 years ago, has gone bust.
When it’s this close it could be down to the respective parties’ GOTV effort and the voter ID which preceded it. Voter ID in traditionally Labour seats is often bad because people get lazy. But in this case the by-election was called early enough to redo it from scratch, which is the best way. The SNP has been flooding the constituency with workers but I don’t know how accurately they are able to target their supporters.
56 Yes. A niggle I have. As a prudent person I lose out more on my savings than I gain on my mortgage. And as someone who relies on poorly preforming private pensions I need to save.
But its a sign of the times that we are all assumed to be borrowers first and foremost.
re 43. Be careful Icarus. That sort of comment could get us onto http://www.mumsnet.com/
They are a fierce lot.
It’s been so disappointing to hear the calls for interest rate cuts. Not just the usual suspects, but everyone seems to have a view on what the precise rate should be.
The last thing we needed was a cut. It’ll weaken the pound even further which will raise the cost of imports and hence inflation. If it has any effect at all (not certain as people are being so cautious at the moment) it’ll reduce the incentive to save and increase the incentive to borrow, which is how we got into this mess in the first place.
I’d prefer us to stop trying to be too clever, just take the pain of recession, stop shouting at the Bank every five minutes, and get back to sound policy for the long term.
62 Yep,I think that’s right.
58.Sadly, I think that is right too. As I posted last night, I am very suspiciuos of Labour’s spin on this.
66 - OMG Mike.. don’t bring down the wrath of Mumsnet upon us. The Provisional Wing of the NCT. They’re vicious.
Ditch ID cards?!
ID cards are embedded in NuLab’s statist DNA. ID cards are to Labour as spots are to the leopard.
Sally started it!
71 As you know, Icarus, that’s no defence.
71 Oh very brave.
They wouldn’t pick on us. We are to ‘nerdy’.
67. Inflation is no longet the problem! The main drivers of this inflation oil/ Gas/ Commidities / food are all in reverse! Indeed the domestic consumption economy is dead!
Depreciation of Sterling is good as it makes Exports more competitive in the longer term and should move the balance of payments back toward balance in the longer run.
56
Mike, If you are healthy, didn’t need the lump sum, I have an idea you would have been better off taking the full pension. I am sure there is an actuary who will tell us how many years you have to live post retirement to be better off by not taking the lump sum, I thought it was about 10 or 11 yrs to be ahead of the game… Would a bookie have allowed you to bet your entire lump sum anyway?
re 52 well they could take it down to their local supermarket and have a fake ID card made up.
Oops sorry we’re told that’s impossible isn’t it. Must remind myself to be sent away for correction and reindoctrination.
59 - Retail will be on its knees after Christmas, around rent time, once the banks have assessed who had a good Christmas (if any) and who didn’t. Highly leveraged retailers will be going ‘bang’ like grains of popcorn left, right and centre.
73 - They took on Gina Ford. Beware the wrath of Cod in particular!
re 77 with Christmas day being a quarter day in England, isn’t that rent time?
79 - The banks will prop them up until its clear how Christmas went. Then they’ll let the piranhas into the tank on those who didn’t do well.
77 Retail will be fine.
Gordon will order pre Christmas sales.
59. Where is Mark Senior, that great sage who confidently predicted there would be no recession as such events only occur under Tory governments?
77
They already are..
I’m waiting for car plant closures..in Labour constituencies..
81 - LOL - probably.
70. The ID card will never be ditched; it is the perfect Laba’ath project combining curtailment of civil liberties, social engineering of various degrees of cupidity and giving large amounts of our money to badly run private companies.
8 - I can still very clearly rememnber having a mortgage in the early 1990s that was fixed for two years at 13%. I doubt if I am the only one. However bad things are now we still have a long way to go until we get to that, let alone how things were in the early 1980s or, God forbid, what seemed like the whole of the 1970s.
A few random points.
Many thanks for the mentions as regards my posting information and analysis of the election, it really does mean something to know that it wasn’t all just lost in the ether.
Anatole is right that America still has a sizeable schism, the election itself was run on those lines and the vote, whilst showing signs of it disintegrating, was never going to be transformed overnight. The key is that you cannot change this situation by losing, now that Obama is in the White House we will come to learn that the US did not have its divisions healed by this election but that it can only happen through the manner of its governance - that change, in itself, will be a Herculean task over the coming years.
Finally, the person who convinced me to get a two year tracker mortgage this summer gave me my best ‘bet’ of the year. I might not have had funds to risk on Tuesday but the rate cut makes me feel as though I came out with a decent win.
77 The banks will look at trading over the whole year, and take advantage of festive spending (if any) to take out business whilst they have Christmas cash in the tills that they can claw back.
83 - Is BMW Oxford in Oxford East? Much be a few twitchy people there today - a month of ceased production over Christmas. Doubt it would close (still 12% growth year over year) but I can certainly see retrenchment.
This is priceless:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7713237.stm
The forex markets have been especially schizophreniform in reaction to this morning’s rate slashage.
First the pound plummeted as everyone realised Britain is a load of bollocks, then it surged when everyone thought Hey, Britain is bollocks but so one is everyone else so what does it matter, now its dropped right back to Britain-is-still-total-bollocks territory: $1.58.
And all that in about two hours.
86
And how big was your mortgage in the 90’s? Nowhere near as big as the average today, I’ll bet.
Iain Dale’s Diary.
‘I’ve just been to a fascinating breakfast seminar put on by the BBC on what the result of the American election means. The speakers included Jeremy Vine, Nick Robinson and Andrew Cooper from Populus. Of course we are all looking for the lessons British politicians can draw from what happened on Tuesday. The one thing which struck me from Cooper’s presentation was the answer given to this question in exit polls:
Do you think the country is heading in the right direction?
15 % said yes and 85% said no. When you ask the same question in this country the result is almost identical. 17% say yes and 83% no.
If I were David Cameron I would take great comfort from that.’
89. Yes, the plant’s in Oxford East. The West of the city is mainly the university.
Well, the punters seem to think Glenrothes is an SNP win. BetFair now on 1.23 SNP, 3.95 Labour.
95, I wonder… why did the price tighten up from about those odds, and then return to them?
89 Not just twitchy people in Oxofrd East - how many of their suppliers can take a months hit of lost production?
re 64. Labour’s traditional problem has been getting its support out in election where the government of the country is not at stake.
I don’t usually like political stunts, but I have to admit that NO2ID’s capture of our beloved Home Secretary’s dabs is a minor classic…and all done at a speech where she was bragging about the foolproof nature of biometrics.
I can’t believe our friend Sidney at William Hill can’t split the parties (5/6 each) in 2012 - I’d be about 1/2 the Dems. Even money Obama is also too bid, but I think the 5/6 is a safer bet.
Not worth tying your money up at this stage though - mind you 4 years of 3% interest isn’t all that either
99
If she was drinking from a glass they will have her DNA too.
92 In 1990 Mortgages reached a peak of 25% of income. They rapidly came down and by 1996 were at around 11%. They have risen since then back up to around 18% in 2007.
Source:http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics Data series ML4
95. If Labour DO lose, and I still think it’s pretty close, they will be bitterly disappointed, whatever they pretend otherwise. All that effort, and for nothing….
I don’t think a Glenrothes defeat will kick off any more leadership speculation - they needed to be at least 15 points behind in the opinion polls AS WELL, for that to happen. But it will completely shatter their fragile and only-just-regained self-confidence.
Oh Lord, I hope they lose!
99 What would be really good would be they could put them on a false ID card. Having had some experience of biometric cards, I would say that this is likely to be easier than decrypting or modifying an existing card.
99 I hope those prints are somewhere safe. I’m sure they can expect a visit from Special Branch shortly.
@90:
Dizzee Rascal announcing his entry into UK politics?
I bet he’s a Tory.
105, but one of them’s the Home Secretary, and she has the foolproof ID to show it:p
105 What law would they have broken?
103 I seen a lot from you on pb.com, but invoking the power of the Almighty to obtain a by-election result is a new one.
What odss on the BBC reporting it, nothing on their website yet.
108 They’ll find one
105, 111, you’re both SO last century. ASBOs and anti-terror laws make it quite clear no offence, or evidence of an offence, is required for the police to do what they like.
108 & 111 And failing that they will draft one and apply it retrospectively.
“The ID card will never be ditched”
…not under a *Labour* government, no. Why do you think I’m never voting for them again?
@109:
I think we have enough evidence that God is no longer personally intervening in the electoral process, if he’s prepared to allow a hellbound liberal to be elected President of God’s Own Country.
115, he tried to participate in our last GE. Unfortunately someone had already submitted a postal vote under his name, so he couldn’t cast his vote.
Why is the Oregon senate race still only at 79% reporting?
115 Martin, He moves in mysterious ways.
118 Well He is supposed to be omnipresent, although quite frankly inland Fife on a dark grey wet November Thursday afternoon is a bit of a stretch.
Having missed the previous “review” thread on the US elections, I hope you’ll indulge my saying a few words here.
I was one of the very few contrarians arguing that, though Obama would win, it would be close. Well…I was wrong; or, more precisely, three-quarters wrong in my two main trains of thinking.
I took the view that there was a UK’92 style “shy conservative” vote out there keeping its heads down in response to the media drumbeat for Obama. The final results show no sign of any such thing.
I also argued that the poll estimates for Democrat party ID lead were far too high. I took the view that anything over 6 points was dubious. I was wrong on that too. The final number seems to have been 7. So props to Rasmussen whose 6.5 was almost dead on.
That said, I feel partly vindicated on the latter point. My real beef was with those polls giving double-digit Dem party ID advantages. And they ended up further out than I did.
Happily, I didn’t lose much money on the election. I bet mainly individual states, with mixed success, and if North Carolina yet turns around to GOP I will even come out ahead.
Just had notice from my brokers that all mortgage tracker products are being withdrawn by Cheltenham and Glos, Abbey, with immediate effect.
the boe takes action - the banks take other action. heads they win, tails you lose.
I don’t believe that the ERM fiasco of autumn 1992 “did” for Major.Of course,it did not help but principally they ran out of steam and were more interested in arguing amongst themselves.The public were not stupid and concluded that it was time for a change as the government no longer appeared competent.In the meantime Blair had successfully moved Labour to the centreground and the result was a landslide.
Whilst I doubt if we will see a Tory landslide of 1997 proportions,Brown and Cameron are starting to parallel Major and Blair to a remarkable degree.
119 I thought Tony Blair was His representative on earth in the 2005 election and Michael Howard the one representing the denizens of Hades?
Perhaps like the Sun He supports the likely winners…
117-Is OPregon all postal ballot? I think some signatures have to be manually certified. But am prepared to be corrected.
I go this from the amazing vitriol on 538’s comments board. Compare to pb.com where all strands of opinion are present, and discourse is polite. (ish)
124 - Yes, 538’s comments really detract from the otherwise excellent site. Not a lot Nate can do about it, I suppose, and I expect this board will become a lot less pleasant during the next election too.
124- Yes, Oregon is all postal.
When will the Glenrothes result be known?
@124:
Well what else are they gonna have keeping them going till the 2012 primary season, if not raw hate?
119 I overheard a great conversation about that in our local village. We have a music festival, and a West African choir/band were due to give a concert of religious music in the evening, in the church. One of the performers came into the village newsagents, and a lady was talking to him.
Sussex villager: “So, what’s this concert you’re doing this evening?”
Perfomer: “We’re gonna make some music, do a bit of dance, see if maybe God will come and visit with us tonight.”
Sussex villager: “Oh I expect he will. He comes every Sunday.”
brilliant take on the US election here > http://tinyurl.com/5zyxsy
Obama hypnotised America is the central thesis. Now it clearly is wacky land stuff but he Obama does have that calmness of Paul Mckenna…..hmmmm
@129:
They seem to be accusing Obama of (whisper) being a good orator.
I’m shocked at their insight.
O/T there was a link to Newsweek on last thread. They have so far put up three chapters of their story behind the election, its good stuff, not incredibly detailed but gives a view of the inner workings of the campaigns. Recommended reading for we political nerds on Pb.com while waiting into the night for the massive SNP victory tonight (first time I’ve ever wanted that, never thought I would)
http://www.newsweek.com/id/167582
O/T Another left-wing party’s future is decided today
Warning: long post, only for those interested in continental politics!
In France, the Parti socialiste members (around 140.000) will vote today on the future direction of the party. It seems interesting to see if the crisis has an impact on the ideological balance in the party.
The vote will be on 6 “motions”. The votes gained will give each motion’s authors seats for the Conseil national (the party’s “parliament” repsonsible to define policy positions). The leader (premier secretaire) will then be elected by another vote of the members 2 weeks later.
The 6 motions are:
A- Motion Delanoe/Moscovici/Hollande: centrists in the party, opposed to alliances with the center, supports Delanoe for leader. This is the main part of the former majority that supported Jospin in the 1990ies (him and many former ministers support it). It is the favourite but is vulnerable to calls for change (Jospin and Hollande have lead the party in the last 13 years), even if they were not much associated with Royal’s failed campaign. Delanoe’s reelection as mayor of Paris was a personal victory but he only maintained his position during municipal elections marked by big advances of the left. Being the supposed favourite, it was attacked by all the others and its campaign seemed a bit weak in momentum.
B- Eco-socialist motion: hopelessly small motion advocating greener policies by the PS. Would be very fortunate to reach 5% of the vote
C- Motion lead by Benoit Hamon (young MP), representing the union of the usually divided left of the party. Very eurosceptic (the EU is an anglo-saxon free-market conspiracy, you know…) and advocating electoral aliances with communists and far-left parties. The score of motion C will reflect the impact of the financial crisis on party members. It is supposed to do better than expected but it still has no chance to lead the party, dominated by pragmatists since at least 1983.
D- Motion lead by Martine Aubry, mayor of Lille and infamous creator of the (now dead) 35h working week. Strange alliance of some members of supposedly “blairists” (curse word in PS language, meaning the right wing of the party, formerly unified around Strauss-Kahn) and Fabius supporters (left wingers and eurosceptics). The control of Mord and Pas de Calais local parties (the two biggest) by Aubry and her friends should deliver a big score. The scepticism about the ideological split in this motion should limit her appeal nationally though.
E- The Royal motion. Well, she’s not officially leading it, leaving first rank to Lyons’ mayor G. Collomb, but it is really her team that leads this group, replicating a part of the coalition she built to get the presidential nomination: alliance of personal supporters (the cultish “Desirs d avenir” groups), young guns opposed to the Jospin-Hollande direction (Valls, Peillon) and some barons with big local following (in Marseilles, Montpellier, Lyons). The main weakness of this motion is that Royal is now a very polarizing figure in the party, especially as she blamed her defeat on the other party leaders. Many new young party members that came to the PS through Desirs d avenir have now left and many crucial supporters in the party have followed Hollande after their personal and political split. She has saved her motion by saying that a vote for the motion would not be a vote for her leadership. If motion E comes on top she will promptly resume her ambition, obviously!
F- Utopia motion: very small motion based on an anti-globalization message. They will probably be limited by the probable breakthrough of motion C and their only ambition is to beat motion B for 5th place.
Results will be known tonight and I will post an analysis tomorrow. My personal feeling is that it will produce a stalemate with motion A E and C very close, leaving open all possible combinations to build a majority before next week’s congress.
125 Yes, I think we’ll have to brace ourselves for some unpleasantness, come the next election.
I think a number of us were under considerable strain in the Weekend before the last one when Populus were suggesting Labour was heading for another landslide.
re 101 perhaps they could fit her up for some nasty crime and then we’d be rid of the awful woman.
Still no mention of Commissar Smith’s fingerprints on Pravda. Doubtlessly Nick Robinson is ferreting away, trying to find out a senior Tory who hasn’t taken an illegal donation, or perhaps one who went on holiday with his wife.
125 - Nasty, but in fairness, more knowledgeable than many of the sites with nasty comments. PB.com hits the jackpot with intense geekiness ensconsed in remarkable civility.
126 - I reckon Glenrothes will declare about 1:15/1:30 GMT at the latest. If turnout is low, it could be an hour earlier.
re 108 knowing new Labour they’ve probably passed some Terrorism Act to cover it.
126. Expectation is that it will be around 1am barring any recounts etc.
136/126. Depends if Labour demand a recount again like Glasgow East.
125- The one time things got (in my opinion) downright nasty here on PB during the U.S. elections was in late September/early October when it looked like, on the face of the polls, this might be a very close election. When people think they might actually lose, or just might win, that’s when they start to panic or freak out and the worst comes out of them. Therefore, if things are looking reasonably close/winnable for Labour by spring, 2010, I’m sure things will be very ugly here, indeed.
Labour MP for Ipswich calls for Clarkson to be sacked.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7712962.stm
Publicity stunt. Better idea will be to wait until 2010 and then the good people of Ipswich can sack the MP.
re 126 I’ve seen anywhere from midnight to 1am mentioned.
138 But at what time will Ave It declare it?
141, any man so inadequate he can’t even grow a beard can piss off.
142. I remember hearing the same for Crewe and Nantwich yet it took half the night.
re 132 Chris (from Bethessda ex Paris). I remember you saying that you were moving to the US so I take it you’re not holed up in my part of the world in Snowdonia?
145, can’t be as bad as the Mayoral elections. They were over a day late, weren’t they?
140 S&S
It’s always a lot less civil here when the subject is UK elections.
Civility is at its greatest when the topic is betting or an overseas election. Combine the two, as in the US elections, and you get a very civil discourse.
Anyone know how the turnout in Glenrothes is looking?
141- Cant wait until Sunday. Clarkson will no doubt say something that will be even worse!
141. Obscure and Preposterous MP calls for Sacking of Extremely Popular TV Presenter for Telling Quite Good Joke.
Yep, that’s gonna happen.
146- ChrisA
Indeed. Bethesda is an inside the beltway Washingotn suburb. I didn’t know about the other Bethesda! From the photos I just found through google, the area seems stunningly beautiful.
151. These marginal Labour MP’s will do anything to gain a bit of cheap publicity. Difference is if Clarkson was sacked, dozens of organisations would be anxious to employ him. When these MP’s lose their job, no one will want them.
141 But if they fired Clarkson they wouldn’t have the “We can’t be biased we employ Jeremy Clarkson” excuse - might have to bring back one Fat Lady and her friend extolling bloodsports to restore balance.
Anyone know why the Glenrothes betting has been taken off?
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/
132- Thanks for the great update on Parti Socialiste politics, Chris. While French internal party politics always seem a bit strange and opaque to me, it would seem most likely that either option A or C would win the day. If I were a pragmatic French socialist, I would definitely choose option A, but I’m not sure there’s enough pragmatism in the PS to go in that direction. Option C must be very tempting to them…
The idea that they could possibly rally to Royal again after both her embarrassingly incompetent campaign topped off with her immediate repudiation of her campaign platform as soon as the election ended is quite amazing.
People, swiftly, read this:
People ‘can’t wait for ID cards’
headline from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7712275.stm
Apparently Jacqui Smith reckons she’s regularly approached by proles desperate to have barcodes branding onto their buttocks by government officials.
It is always disturbing the amount of cheese in newspapers and television reports after GE victory (USA).
What people seem to be forgetting is that their is no possibility of Obama being an exceptional leader akin to Margaret Thatcher, John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Vladimir Putin of the post-war era.
All of these leaders came with decades of political experience. John Kenndey was born in political dynasty, Vladimir Putin was ex-KGB (most of what intelligence services do is related to politics), Reagan had been in politics for decades and Magaret Thatcher had been in politics for at least a decade.
156 SaS “a pragmatic French socialist” That’s a contradiction in terms, SaS.
After a long break from here due to work etc I thought I would post a quick comment about the SNP GOTV strategy in Glenrothes. I was in Kennoway(to the NE of Glenrothes itself). I was at a pollling station first of all and there was a steady turnout and the feedback was overwhelmingly positive. Many voters who had taken the SNP “yes we can” leaflets from our people at the entrance were displaying them on the dashboard of their cars as they left the Polling Station. Also, there were no other parties present at the polling station. The area had a few SNP posters in windows and gardens- I only spotted two for Labour. As for the GOTV operation, I was surprised that most doors I have knocked on through the day- the residents had already voted. We had alot of people out door knocking- I only saw one person from Labour and two Labour people in a car. I appreciate this is only a small part of the constituency but hopefully it gives some insight.
148- I have no doubt you’re right about that!
155, No idea but SNP are 1/5 on Betfair, which was the only one showing prices earlier today.
Not much liquidity on the Betfair Glenrothes market at the moment, but the SNP are being backed there at 1/5. Not many takers for Labour at 4/1.
The Politics Home panel should all get over there now.
157. ‘Everyone will have one by 2012′
No they won’t Ms Smith, in the same way as you won’t have the letters MP after your name.
141 - Labour MP complaining about making light of murder - has he forgotten about his party (would have literally got away with murder for over 11 years) taking us into an illegal war.
Brass neck like 99% of the rest of the Labour MP’s.
Now I know the movement of the markets is in no way definitive of the state of the econonmy, but is it not rather concerning that after an unprecedented 150 basis point cut, the FTSE is off by 5.25%? I can distinctly remember a 25 point cut being the inspiration for major rallies
looks like pbers are reinvesting obama winnings on the snp for Glenrothes - lets hope this weight of capital is not leading to a mispricing of the market and the wrong indication of the result
165, not forgetting auctioning a signed inquest into the death of Dr Kelly. New Labour, new lows.
168.Inquiry, not an inquest. We/he didn’t get an inquest.
167. “lets hope this weight of capital is not leading to a mispricing of the market and the wrong indication of the result”
But since when have betting odds ever been a true indication of the result of anything? I’m cautiously optimistic for the SNP tonight because of the mood music from both sides, but the odds themselves are worse than useless as a guide.
Five Bellies Smith is confused - it’s not ID cards in 2012 that people cannot wait for, it’s a General Election in 2010!
165.
Jacqui Smith knows full well that ID cards are basically a Tory meaure and whichever Tory Party (Gordon’s or Dave’s) ‘win’ the next election they will find some pathetic excuse or other to bring them in, whatever they say between now and then.
166. DISWS, my take on this is that the markets are reacting to what they perceive as a panic reaction and to the implication that the Bank of England has been massively behind events.
Not a direct analogy, but in rugby, it’s called a hospital pass… the guy holds onto the ball for far too long, finally deciding to do something far too late and tossing it to you just as the oppo’s 17 stone Maori centre clatters into you.
169. he topped himself didn’t he? what would an inquest prove?
164- What is the proposed enforcement mechanism to make ID cards universal? Punishment for failing to produce a card? Inability to vote, open a bank account, get a job, etc.?
157 - You can smell the b******t spin all over this story, no prizes for guessing that if people are coming up to her & asking for the I.D. cards (and its a very big if indeed) that they are Labourite luvvies in some disgusting stage managed, PR North Korean style set up.
172 It is Tory policy to scrap ID cards.
175 Prison.
167 & 170
Not only pbers money !
An earlier quote from “The Scotsman”
However, that appeared to be a tacit admission that the Nationalists were ahead going into polling day – and that was reflected in Alex Salmond’s bullish decision to put his own money on an SNP win.
The First Minister has seized on Barack Obama’s campaign slogan, “Yes we can”, and he insisted yesterday: “Yes, we can win and, yes, we will win the Glenrothes by-election.”
Asked whether he had “put his money where his mouth was”, Mr Salmond replied: “You know I never comment on my gambling propositions, but if you publish that I put money on the SNP to win, I won’t deny it.”
The £ is now back to exactly the same dollar price as it was before the slashing of interest rates, this morning - after much spazzing about interim.
Who’d have guessed that an historically enormous 150 point cut in rates would actually have NO effect on sterling?
FTSE down 5.5%
if ID cards are ever introduced, it would immediately become a ludicrous policy to scrap them. bit like renationalisation, or flip-flopping on cannabis.
179-”Not only pbers money !”
Who said Salmond is not a pber?
182 ed - Why? It’s been done before, post WWII.
15.”Off thread. At last SKY news have reported someone saying we are one of the worst placed economies - even if it was just in passing.
Osborne said it earlier. The Tories need to be all over the airwaves today to hammer this home and to highlight the difference betweeen our rate cut and that of the Euro zone.”
SallyC, I have noticed a real sea change in Sky’s handling of the Tory party over the last couple of weeks. Its not been about their political teams reporting of events, just generally more favourable coverage on the news channel. I wondered if the recent spats the Tories had with the BBC had anything to do with it?
My guess is the market is going to remain edgy until the pre budget report.
exactly my point i thought
173 yes, certainly looks that way - all eyes on the US and the announcements tomorrow on employment and the like….
174 - It would hopefully prove his murder was covered up – Bliar has Dr. Kelly on his conscience as well as going to war on a lie.
174, the only man in the whole country to commit suicide that way in the entire year, and it was completely against his faith. Either the government drove him to it… or worse.
182, bollocks. A juvenile, rebellious part of me wants Labour to try it just so I, and millions others, can kick off.
re 155. I’m trying to get it back up.
182. Compulsory ID cards were scrapped in Britain in the early 1950s. Was that decision ‘ludicrous’? Or was it not, in fact, rather popular?
I haven’t been following the twists and turns of this, but isn’t every citizen going to have to fork out an exorbitant fee for this compulsory card? The words ‘poll tax’ spring to mind…
82 runnymede “Where is Mark Senior, that great sage who confidently predicted there would be no recession as such events only occur under Tory governments?”
He is in deep shock over his beloved Labour Govt. The fact that we also have the housing recession that he also denied would happen may have finished the poor chap off.
189. has anyone suggested that he was physically murdered?
whether his death is on anyone’s conscience is clearly not the same thing.
172 Would those be the same Tories that forced Gordon to sell the gold?
Whatever you’re smoking, be careful Jacqui doesn’t catch you!
177. Is it?
Can’t find it on their website. Even if it was I wouldn’t expect it to last longer than it took to install themselves in a whitehall office and crack out the port.
184, 192. under completely different circs.
generalising beyond ID cards, what could possibly be a worse outcome than introducing a huge and expensive scheme, and then scrapping it?
194 - I would not put anything past this government.
196
http://www.conservatives.com/Campaigns/ID_Cards_Labours_Bad_IDea.aspx
196, the Tories were the only party to stick to their manifesto over Europe. I have more faith in Cameron sticking to his word than Labour or the Lib Dems.
194. “generalising beyond ID cards, what could possibly be a worse outcome than introducing a huge and expensive scheme, and then scrapping it?”
Maintaining it?
199. I’ve been looking at their policy section:
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy.aspx
That’s the campaign section, which also includes preventing the closure of post offices. Something else I’m sure they won’t do anything to stop when they’re in government.
51 - Martin Day. Reposted from earlier thread:
“Can I be the first today to call the result - SNP with a 7,000 majority.
“No more boom and bust”
by Albion Til I Die November 6th, 2008 at 9:17 am ”
You heard it here first.
197, 201 - Remember it would cost a massive amount to run. You’d have to keep track of every citizen’s change of address, handle complaints, lost cards, etc etc. You’re talking about detailed records on tens of millions of people,and those records have to be as near 100% correct as possible, else all hell will break loose. These things don’t run themselves.
157. ID cards won’t be universal, you can put money on it. Jaqui and her lot are of a generation that learned their politics before computing and the internet changed the way we live so profoundly. Consequently they do not understand technology at all. The chips have already been hacked. As soon as the cards start to be rolled out there will be a huge number of fraud cases that will make it obvious the system is unworkable. Once people have got your data from the card that’s it. You can’t change your fingerprints.
Of course, if you are a criminal you can just buy fake fingerprints which do work, and do fool the scanning equipment.
This is a monumentally stupid policy. It’s almost as stupid as their database policy, which was blown out of the water by blogs within minutes of being proposed. The ID cards for mobile phones policy which was laughed out of court here was their attempt to solve the problems with the database policy! None of these policies will increase security, and they will all make us terribly open to fraud. Forget the worries about 1984, it’s far more shambolic than that. This is more like Gilliam’s Brazil run by the people who work down the job centre.
197, keeping it, you muppet. If the government spent £20bn creating concentration camps would you support maintaining them, because otherwise the money would be ‘wasted’?
And yeah yeah, Godwin this and that, forcing everyone to have an EU ID card when nobody bloody wants them is a step towards tyranny.
194 - Norman Baker, MP for Lewes has written a book on this very proposition:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Strange-Death-David-Kelly/dp/1842752170/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1225988020&sr=1-1
175- If prison is the enforcement mechanism for ID cards, then perhaps the excitement Ms. Smith is witnessing is a consequence of people’s enthusiasm for remaining of jail.
202. post offices has always been a one-way political argument. easy points for the opposition claiming to defend them, no-brainer for the govt. to scrap them.
people who protest about them, have been buying their stamps from tescos for the last 20 years. it is very sad, but a fact of life.
194. Yes. There’s a whole bunch of studies (from the medical side) which cast doubt on it being suicide. This collection of papers are a non-hysterical look at the evidence.
http://www.deadscientists.blogspot.com/
There seem to have been a number of unexpected deaths among microbiologists associated with Iraq and the UN inspections.
Draw your own conclusions.
95: The movement in the odds is I think down to what I posted this morning (or was it yesterday - post US election the days are blurring) - it’s generally agreed that the SNP were well ahead, but that a couple of weeks ago Labour had put on a spurt and narrowed the gap: some people extrapolated that into thinking we’d win. The SNP then put on their big effort last weekend and most observers thinks they’ve got it in the bag.
The problem with polling professional politicians (as in the PH100 poll) is that they’re going to be thinking ‘what is the impact of my giving an opinion’ and they may give ‘tactical’ responses. I don’t do that here because I post by name and it’d be counter-productive if it kept proving wrong, but if a newspaper asks me for an anonymous opinion I admit I often think ‘what would it be useful for me to reply?’ So I’d think the PH100 panel in this sort of question will tend to include people massaging expectations or answering the way they hope rather than expect. I don’t know *any* Labour MPs who are expecting us to win - the range of opinion is from “well, we’ve given them a run for their money” to “bloody by-elections, what can you expect?”
At this point I don’t see why I shouldn’t be frank about details. Once again we found that the level of canvass data was zero, and I don’t mind saying that I’m fed up with going to one by-election after another and finding that this is so often the case in safe seats. By a steady, not very public, effort over a couple of months, we got the contact rate up to 44% a week ago, with rather more for people who voted last time, and I’d think it will have been about 55% by the end of the week, after which the effort switched to firming up and GOTV. I think that’s quite a good effort in the time available, but not an election-winning one. The initial assault on the SNP record did prove productive, and we had quite a few people who’d voted SNP in the Holyrood election saying that they now regretted it and would come back. But by-elections have their own last-week dynamic as people decide to a risk-free protest, and although there’s been a big push by the party organisation in the last few days, I’ll be surprised if it’s even close to enough.
Will it matter? Not a lot - as Morris Dancer says, other news is drowning it out. A win would be nice as it would boost the ’soaring recovery’ narrative, but that is going to get a reality check sooner or later - the truth is that we’re doing better than a few months ago and we feel the Tories have lost the narrative (remind me what Cameron’s famous plan is?), but there’s a lot of work still to do to catch up, and the professional politicians know it. We are, however, hard to demoralise, as people here may have noticed.
206. We can disagree with ID cards without lying. About 50% of the population want ID cards.
About 35% of the population want the database that will lie behind them. Any anti-id card politician that makes that link is quids in.
75 MTF might be a bit confused about those pension options, as there is a tax-efficiency angle to consider.
Anyone taking a lump sum would end up having a larger pension income, but it would actually be taxable, whereas taking the lump sum can be done tax free, and then re-invested elsewhere, according to attitude to risk and reward and tax and personal circumstances.
While on this subject however, there is yet another potential pensions stealth tax on the horizon for those of you still working and trying to build up a pension. I believe the lump sum at retirement has for many years been called the ‘TFLS’ or tax-free lump sum, but the HMRC is now referring to it as the ‘PCLS’ or pension commencement lump sum. The eagle eyed will notice the removal of the words ‘tax’ and ‘free’.
No doubt Labour politicians would deny this name change is significant and would reassure us there are ‘no plans’ to tax the retirement lump sum. But they would say that, wouldn’t they?
MTF is probably thinking of a related but different issue? For those without a final salary pension scheme, (i.e nearly everyone who isn’t a public sector employee and subsidised accordingly) there will be difficult and complicated decision to be made about types of annuities to be chosen. Depending on age, longevity and health, there may be a case for a level annuity instead of an index-linked one, because of, as MTF might mean, the need to live ‘X’ number of years before you would in theory be better off.
204, 206. a workable system would have to replace other systems currently in place - which could save money and admin and reduce fraud, if done well.
when i say well, i mean, a lot better than i expect it to be done!
211, it’s the opposite of Gordon’s vision:p
More seriously, do you think Labour should get around to gathering more data about their seats (not detailed necessarily, just general), so that this kind of situation doesn’t occur again? It would help you out with future by-elections and the GE too, probably.
211. Back the SNP looks like free money then. Pile on, tout le monde….
211. I suppose another problem with the PH100 is that it includes peers, Tory frontbenchers, etc who are likely to be to be less in touch - or not in touch at all - with what’s going on.
211 Thanks for that, Nick.
Actually, I think the point about the level of canvass data is a bit unfair to your own party. In a seat which used to be regarded as ultra-safe, it’s not surprising.
212, more than 50% of people want hanging. Are you in favour of that?
211 lol Nick, you guys are getting a taste of the 1997s - what once was safe is no longer. Still, at least the SNP will have a complete suite of data for their new bastion
219 You can read that two ways MD.
219, I wouldn’t go quite as far as hanging 50% of the popultation.
211. Fantastically helpful and informative post Nick Palmer. Thanks. I won’t be covering my SNP betting position unless Labour drift hugely and possibly not even then.
Now if Labour end up winning this Nick ….
209 Post Offices were always more than somewhere to buy stamps - they were the place where you transacted business with the State, the British version of the Mairie in France. It’s the planned destruction of that position, which started I would agree under Major, that is a tragedy. Even in the age of the web local authorities and central Government should be using them as their local offices and other services (for example my sister’s sub post office holds prescribed medication for OAPs and others to pick up).
222 Same old Tories, they never change.
Thanks Nick.
Thats actually quite a damning (and honest) statement on the state of your party - poor canvassing and by-election organisation, and the fact that you have to resist being “demoralised”. I just cannot imagine any Tory politician / supporter who currently needs to resist any temptation to be “demoralised”. In that one word you have made me a very happy Tory.
Remember my prediction of a 7k SNP majority tonight. If you need any forecasts for subsequent elections, I am available for very reasonable rates.
225, I know, they’re going to have to sort out another economic catastrophe caused by Labour.
215/218: No, I’m with Morris on this. Not surveying the opinions of your voters is not doing the job properly (no doubt Gwynneth will send down a bolt of lightning, but it’s true), and we all know that all seats are risky in by-elections. I know Broxtowe councillors in ultra-safe wards who go out canvassing every week. It’s one reason why their seats are ultra-safe.
212. And which loaded question produced that response. Was it before data breaches and costs were mentioned?
213 - Surely a stealth tax is meant to be (a) a tax and (b) stealthy. So changing the terminology for the lump sum taken on retirement wouldnt seem to qualify under either criteria. (Indeed the latest changes to pension tax legislation have allowed many members of pension schemes to take MORE tax free lump sum than they were able to before.)
212 G - As you probably know, there are severe doubts about the polls which appeared to show some public support for ID cards. The more people find out about what is implied (such as, ultimately, it being a criminal offence not to notify a change of address), the less they like it.
But even more significant is the strength of feeling. Almost no one positively wants ID cards, in the sense that the issue would sway them in an election. OTOH many people absolutely detest the idea, and would regard it as an important reason not to vote Labour. As it happens, many of those are on the left - Labour or ex-Labour supporters, and LibDem supporters whom Labour really needs to attract.
226: Poor canvass records yes, poor by-election organisation no. I think to get from 0% to 44% in a few weeks is pretty darned good. As for demoralisation, the Tories here have morale as fragile as eggshells - it only takes one poll showing their lead down to 8% and they wail like banshees.
“205. It’s almost as stupid as their database policy, which was blown out of the water by blogs within minutes of being proposed.”
That may be so, but the government’s proposal to record every email, phone call and text message on a huge database is still going ahead: for the very good reason that the government has no choice. The database is part of an EU directive, requiring us to do this.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2006:105:0054:0063:EN:PDF
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_retention
Crucial paragraph:
“On 15 March 2006 the European Union formally adopted Directive 2006/24/EC, on “the retention of data generated or processed in connection with the provision of publicly available electronic communications services or of public communications networks and amending Directive 2002/58/EC” [1][2]
“The Directive requires Member States to ensure that communications providers must retain, for a period of between 6 months and 2 years, necessary data as specified in the Directive
“The Directive as adopted covers fixed telephony, mobile telephony, Internet access, Internet email and Internet telephony. Member States are required to transpose it into national law within 18 months - ie no later than September 2007. However, they may if they wish postpone the application of the Directive to Internet access, Internet email and Internet telephony for a further 18 months after this date. A majority of Member States have indicated that they will indeed exercise this option.”
This directive has passed into law - or what passes for law at Brussels. The only way we can avoid establishing the database is by withdrawing from the EU.
And yet the “argument” about the database continues in this country - and it is conducted as if we actually had a say in what happens, when the truth is we don’t. It’s all been decided already, in Brussels, by our superiors.
When even engaged and intelligent people fail to understand how the EU works, and what directives really mean, then I despair of the political future of the nation.
228 Indeed Labour is run like it’s two parties: Labour in Marginals and everywhere else. I suspect that it is true in other parties, but Labour have turned it into a (highly dangerous) art form.
222. “I wouldn’t go quite as far as hanging 50% of the population.”
To go off on a tangent, does anyone know what percentage of the US voting age population was barred from voting on Tuesday because of a criminal conviction - including those not actually in jail? It would have been a mind-boggling figure - enough to call into question whether the US can meaningfully be said to practice universal suffrage. And then of course there’s the disenfranchisement of thousands of voters (primarily black) in Washington DC for Congressional elections.
How can I be forced to carry an ID card by 2012 if my passport doesn’t expire until 2017?
SNP 1.22 at Betfair. Looks like free money if the albion is right. Just transferring some funds!!
229 - Suggested question ‘Would you prefer to have an ID card or go to jail?’
200 Is that the same Cameron tories who in their last GE election campaign said they would scrap tution fees for students.
You know who to trust!
239 - “You know who to trust!” Gordon Brown’s labour party, obviously.
219, 229. those on here criticising ID cards seem unable to grasp that there is a case for both sides (as there is with hanging, as it happens).
there are very interesting points to be discussed on both sides, but you aren’t touching on any of them. in the end i think it comes down to cost-benefit (contrary to the rabid attacks prevalent here), which in turn comes down to implementation details.
233 SeaT - its worse than that, The UK Government was prime driver behind the EU decision, so they can blame the EU for imposing on UK what they asked it to.
238. The trouble is, you’ll probably be presented with your ID card at the gates of the prison.
232. I think to keep going through the last 15 years of hell shows a certain morale Nick!!
232 Nick Palmer I thought better of you. “Wailing like Banshees”. Have you lent your login ID to a Draperbot.
Remember an 8% lead for the Tories is poor by modern day standards. Just an 8% deficit for Labour is spun as a recovery. Show me a poll with an 8% Tory deficit and I will be demoralised. By the way, you have to go back more than a year to find it
239. At least we didn’t break a 2005 manifesto promise in Government!
Interesting quote from D Miliband
“Miliband n Glenrothes
Despite all the expectation management/candour/nonsense (delete as appropriate) spouted by Labour over Glenrothes, the result will be far-reaching either way.
If there’s a victory, Lindsay Roy will be a Labour hero and Gordon will bask in concrete evidence of his economic fightback. [By the way, if the interest rate cut appears to have an impact on the by-election, will there by an inquiry into perceived political pressure from the Government on the Bank?] The Tories’ discomfort over how to respond to Brown will be highlighted mercilessly.
But if Labour lose, this unnoticed quote from David Miliband may get a bit more attention. Amid all the blather about Obama from Brown and Cameron, the Foreign Sec yesterday let slip his own strongly held view on the only way Labour can win the next election. He told Radio 4’s WATO:
“I think that governments do have to stand for change. A government that stands for the status quo is obviously not going to be re-elected.”
Surely Mr Cameron will be quoting that back at G Brown at next week’s PMQs?
If the political narrative turns into the juddering halt of the “Brown bounce”, and the national polls seem stuck, Labour eyes may be looking over the horizon of the PBR and Queen’s Speech towards the distant prospect of annhiliation in the 2009 June local/European elections….”
244. maybe so amongst the few who did so - it is hardly surprising that the majority have fragile morale “oh no, its all evaporating, not again”
211, 226. I think Nick’s frustration with canvassing records is something that affects all parties.
It is especially frustrating in safe seats. People like Nick fight tooth and claw for every vote in their own seats, pump out literature, attend public meetings etc cos they have to to have any hope of retaining their marginal seat. I know safe seats where the MP behaves like some grandee who is there to shake hands and make idle chit chat and keep people happy. However, as soon as a local by-election occurs it becomes squeaky bum time as all of a sudden they realise they have no records, no idea who votes let alone which way and resort to pumping out shoddy leaflets often completely out of touch with what people care about. they then lose.
the particularly galling thing about it all is that after the loss they don’t really change that much unless someone senior gets involved and asks what the f*ck they are doing.
SNP just hit 1.41 then. Had a bit of that.
239, tuitions fees were beyond their power following the electoral result.
241, aye, there are upsides to hanging. But the downsides outweigh them clearly. Like the downsides of ID cards clearly outweigh the upsides.
anyone know why the SNP are drifitng on BF
211. Interesting post, though maybe not entirely spin free.
“We are, however, hard to demoralise, as people here may have noticed.”
Hard to demoralise? Hmm. This from the party that, until a few weeks ago, wanted to unseat the leader they had installed only a year before?
I think Labour are now resigned to defeat in the next General Election - and it’s all about minimising the losses. In that sense, you are maybe half-right: you are hard to demoralise, but that’s because you are already demoralised. You have moved on from denial to a reluctant acceptance, tinged with a lingering anger.
It’s a grittier position than the mad flailing we saw a few weeks back. But you’re still gonna lose.
247, Miliband (D) ruined his chances at the conference. He could come back, but I doubt it. Harman’s still favourite.
211 Nick P Hurrah for some truth which backed up my comments about Labour and its 20% canvass that I posted last week.
What is quite clear is that your party has become tired, arrogant and lost all sense of organisation outside of the 100 or so seats. This is very similar to the Conservatives in the mid 90s. The really extraordinary thing is why the great and the good that have been in charge of party organisation have been so inept. Hazel Blears, Douglas Alexander, Harriet Harman etc…
How can they have presided over a party where many MPs have such a grossly inadequate canvass? Do they not understand the basics of canvassing? Or are they so focused on attending cabinet meetings and the Westminster village that they had no interest in the party on the ground? All Labour MPs can afford to fund paid agents and other staff to do their constituency work and also attract free interns and volunteers, yet they have near zero canvasses? Inept does not do them justice.
A few facts. Since 1997 Labour has lost 61% of its members and 55% of its councillors. Its activists have been hollowed out. Whenever the LDs start to follow the strategy of “focus on Labour seats” then that will be the end of nuLabour as a political force. Luckily for Labour the LDs seem unable to change direction even when their Leader says they will.
241 - I absolutely disagree with your final sentence. For me, the power for a public official to demand to see your ID card is the difference between being free and being unfree. I can see that there are arguments that one might make in favour of them, but I shall always oppose them.
I was on the fence, but am now pretty firmly against ID cards for four reasons:
1) Lack of case made for them - I don’t see the benefits
2) Exorbitant cost - we can’t afford them, even if the benefits were clear
3) Vague libertarian feelings (not very strong ones)
but most importantly
4) It simply cannot be done. It will be a technological disaster of the highest magnitude. It will be the most expensive, largely unnecessary, overblown, inescapeably dangerous, knock-knee’d white elephant in the history of human civilisation.
If I were the TaxPayers’ Alliance (there’s a funny story there, that I’ll tell one-day), I’d do a detailed analysis of the five or six companies who are closest to being able to build this thing, and then I’d show them the impact of being involved if it goes the same way as Connecting for Health.
How would the project being cancelled 6/12/18 months in affect their sales/profit projections, resourcing requirements, share price? I’d make the entire enterprise so damn scary that even in this cash-starved times, the MDs would be taking an enormous risk personally by even entertaining the idea. If they come across that sort of info, prepared by a legitimate source, they would be obliged to consider it. The TPA could, by such a piece of work, force the government to cancel the programme for want of a suitable partner.
240 On this issue Lib Dems not some craven reptile of a saying anything tory party .
“For me, the power for a public official to demand to see your ID card is the difference between being free and being unfree.”
Then remember this — Labour’s Identity Cards Act specifically states that any and every official will have the power to demand your card.
246. not getting the chance hardly makes that interesting.
following the Con 2005 manifesto would have been easy due to the deliberate “plausible deniability” inherent in a statement such as “are you thinking what we’re thinking?”
241. The cost benefit analysis for ID cards is that they are a crap idea. There are benefits, but relative to the costs they are lousy. And that presupposes this bunch of nimcompoops manages the project well - this is the same bunch of cretins that cant even keep track of prisoners in jail. (The whole foreign prisoners thing).
There is no defence for ID cards on economic grounds. As for civil liberties implications. The whole thing is a grotesque white elephant supported by empire building civil servants and moronic labour MPs.
There is also no defence for hanging. A civilised society should not execute people. The possibility of any error is far too great a burden. The economic arguments in favour of it also tend to be questionable. (Deterrence + cost of execution - both questionable at best).
259 - The main reason that I shall not be voting Labour at the next election.
Brown can’t help re-write history can he “”In Britain we cut taxes this year. But this is not the right time for short term cuts in investment and spending.”
Asked when taxes had been cut, he said £2.7bn had been cut in May of this year, to support the wider economy.
There was I thinking it was forced on him by Labour MPs outraged at the 10p Tax debacle - no, nothing to do with that, it was his foresight planning for a need to stimulate the economy.
262 antifrank - Quite. See my post at 231. I think the electoral significance of this is under-estimated by the pundits.
262, question: if they dropped the policy now or immediately prior to the election, would you vote for them?
“261. There is also no defence for hanging. A civilised society should not execute people. The possibility of any error is far too great a burden.”
As compared to, say, bombing the f*ck out of some little Iraq/Serbian/Afghan town, and slaughtering hundreds of innocent women and children, in the pursuit of a military or political objective.
That, of course, is entirely permissible. Errors occur, after all.
Off topic, If the LDs achieved their goal at the next GE of 100 or so seats, that could put them within distance of overtaking Labour as the main opposition and the “home of the left”.
Why then would they still work with Labour on joint anti-Conservative plans which could boost Labour by 40 or 50 seats? (We know they did in 2005 as Ming let slip). Would it not be in LDs best longer term interest to stop the mutual support and reduce Labour to as few MPs as possible? Clegg could bring about a massive political shift with 130 MPs vs a reduced Labour party of 120 and the Conservatives of 360, others of 40.
Maybe we should ask NickP (who after all has made it very clear he supports ID Cards) what he thinks the chances of ID cards being introduced nationaly are? Unlike big transport projects and aircraft carriers, scrapping this aint going to affect jobs, and keeping it isn’t going to create any (well, not enough to justify its huge cost.)
And anway, I still believe that even if by some miracle Id
263. It is this slipperiness that’s his undoing.
256. in all practical terms, there are already myriad situations where you are required to show a form of ID or you cannot live a normal life. that isn’t oppressive, it is just the difference between organisation and chaos.
257. (1) agree the case has not been well made by the govt (although… was it a manifesto commitment? in which case theoretically it has already been “approved” by the electorate?)
(2) there are huge potential benefits though, including fraud prevention and reducing duplication of information
(3) i think this is largely BS as explained above, although there are definitely some reasons to be concerned that the situation could be used to pass inappropriately draconian laws
(4) agree there is a good chance of catastrophe, mostly because the govt. insist on employing incompetent “government contract specialist” firms to do their IT instead of proven well-run organisations
233. Indeed. What has been forgotten about that directive is that it was New Labour which bullied the EU into passing that law. In fact, it was Charles Clarke:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/09/07/lib_security_trade/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1500538/Clarke-threatens-MEPs-over-e-mail-and-phone-records-law.html
260. I would never defend the Tories’ “are you thinking what we’re thinking?”, but New Labour’s “Forward not back” was equally moronic. It perfectly encapsulated Blair’s barking mad world view that anyone who happened to agree with him was ‘forward-thinking and modern’, while anyone who disagreed with him - whether from the left, right or centre, libertarian or authoritarian - was ‘backward’.
It’s like saying ‘forget about out-dated concepts like hot and cold, 18 degrees Celsius is the only good temperature. Every other temperature is bad.’
218. Given that they lost the equivalent Holyrood seat 18 months ago it does not sound reasonable.
268- (Whoops, meant to finish saying…)
And anway, I still believe that even if by some miracle Id cards arive, I am sure they will be so unpopular once people realize just how they work that the government will have no choice but to scrap them.
267, unfortunately for the Lib Dems their best tactical and strategic plans are diametrically opposed.
Longterm they must seek to supplant Labour as the dominant party of the left. The UK will never be lefty enough for the Tories to slip into third place (unless they’re supplanted by a new party of the right, which is unlikely). However, shortterm the Lib Dems won’t want to lose a stack of seats in the south, which creates a big problem for them.
However, you’re right. If they keep snuggling up to Labour and expecting anything other than a black eye in return they’ll never stop being the half party of our two and a half party system.
261. which countries do you consider “civilised”, exactly? not the US, obviously.
267- There was an interesting discussion about this topic here on PB a few months ago. It seemed to me, as well as many others here, that it will be very difficult for the Lib Dems to exploit the golden opportunity provided to them as a result of Labour unpopularity if they continue to form an election season mutual admiration society with Labour.
130.
“They seem to be accusing Obama of (whisper) being a good orator”
yes I’m sure it was the oral skills that got Bill Clinton to come round to support him at the climax of the election.
262 - It’s probably too late for me for this election, but if Gordon Brown had dropped it on his accession and committed to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, he would have been well on the way to securing my vote.
And of course, there is my vote in future elections to think about.
272. sorry but they are not “equally moronic”. one is a disgusting appeal to petty racists, the other is a completely empty, inoffensive political slogan, as used by politicians absolutely everywhere, all the time.
130, Obama has seduced the western world
280, racists? You mean the party which propagated Shylockesque images of Jews in the opposing party? The party which wants to make anti-white discrimination legal?
279, cheers for replying, ’tis useful to hear what a disaffected potential Labour voter thinks.
266. I dont like the wars - I did think Afghanistan was somewhat justified but Iraq, Serbia, Sierra Leone, etc are all military adventures where it is unclear that British interests are served by intervention. Legally the Kosovo intervention was illegal under international law (unlike Iraq, where a tiny scrap of legal justification can be found in earlier UN declarations).
Hanging and mistakes are matters of civil society. But in military action, some degree of error must be accepted, we are not operating on the basis of peacetime legal codes - Silent enim leges inter arma (Cicero).
279.I utterly despise Labour, but even I would look at them again if they scrapped those two policies.
270 - I simply do not buy arguments based around administrative convenience. And it is simply not true to say that an official can demand “papers please” in the way that you can see happening in some mainland European countries quite routinely. The one thing that you can absolutely guarantee is that if officials in Britain get the power to do so, they will do so zealously. The British official shamelessly stretches every power that he is given to the limit.
280- “ne is a disgusting appeal to petty racists,”
The same petty racists that the Labour party is paraniod of losing to the BNP?
280, why is being opposed to mass imigration racist?
any views on exit polls, or how voting has been going today from the tellers in Glenrothes??
270. All the arguments in favour of ID cards could also be made for installing tiny cameras in our brains, at birth, to make sure we don’t commit crimes.
“We are already watched by thousands of cameras every day, what’s the difference with one more…. In fact we could get rid of CCTV if we just had the one braincam…. There are huge potential benefits in reducing crime…. Yes there are risks but a sensible government blah blah”
Fact is, some things are just wrong on principle, even if the technology is exciting. It would be wrong to install tiny cameras in our brains, as I’m sure even Herr Doktor Palmer would agree, it is wrong for the state to request its citizens to continuously and perpetually prove who they are, or risk imprisonment.
287- Na, its just being opposed to what the Labour party decides should be the level of imigration into this country. Just like if you think the level of money spent of public services should be slightly lower than what the Labour party says it should be, you want to slash public services.
266-You forgot Chinese Embassies!
235-Lazy post, first item on google search:
http://www.hrw.org/reports98/vote/usvot98o.htm
Note some of the evil states include such Democratic bastions as:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Iowa
Maryland
Minnesota
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Washington
Wisconsin
While some evil Republican states have relatively liberal laws:
Idaho
Indiana (I know…)
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
I think DC is run by the Ferderal Government, more or less…
(In any case these laws are set by state legislatures that may not be as Democrat/Republican as the state may suggest….)
So it is not an evil Republican plot to disenfranhcise ex-felons. Is your suggestion, btw, that it’s racially tinged as ex-felons are more likely to be black. Heaven forvbid you are suggesting blacks are more likely to commit crimes!
Some states (yes, even with Democrat governors) execute some criminals, so why not disbar them of some civic rights?
280. “the other is a completely empty, inoffensive political slogan”
Emphasis on the ‘empty’, even by the standards of modern political slogans - in the sense that it’s literally content-free. It’s one step away from “up, not down”, “yes, not no” or “wow, not sheesh”.
292- Plus it was from a Simpsons episode anyway. (You know, the famous “I Voted for Kodos” one.)
“I regularly have people coming up to me and saying they don’t want to wait that long.”
The home secretary made the claim as she unveiled revised ID scheme plans.
I can’t work out who’s stupider, the Home Secretary or those who think it’s just a little big of plastic and don’t see what’s going to be behind it.
The government is being very clever in getting these out before any of the 1984ish type auditing of the data is ready.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treehouse_of_Horror_VII
This one to be exact.
293, you mean Kodos the disgusting one eyed alien tyrant?
270. There are no huge potential benefits - this is just nonsense spouted by ministers backed by no numbers and rapidly retreated from whenever anyone actually looks closely at the claims.
ID cards wont do much against most forms of fraud (one of the claims made occasionally by morons from the government). Credit card fraud wont be affected because so much occurs online, overseas, with the cooperation of vendors. Identity fraud should already be difficult given the checks done, but we know that the crims will just move on - if they dont find a way around the system. Social security fraud wont be affected either. The problem there is not that we dont know who these people are, its that they are fraudsters.
There is no economic justification for ID cards. It’s all BS.
296- Thats Bob Dole for ya!
“generalising beyond ID cards, what could possibly be a worse outcome than introducing a huge and expensive scheme, and then scrapping it?”
Introducing a widely hated, wasteful, potentially dangerous, huge and expensive scheme and not scrapping it.
294- Maybe she’s trying to create a craze for ID cards that will overcome any rational objections. Much like an infomercial, ’supplies are limited, only one per customer.’
289. And why stop there? - I suggest a GPS tracking chip in the brain and an indelible ID number tattooed on people’s foreheads.
I always hate it when the ID card morons say “the police like the idea”. Yes, but we dont organise life so that the police like it - otherwise we would have the camera, GPS chip, and indelible ID tattoos on the forehead.
Mike - why no Glenrothes poll today? Don’t fancy showing up politicshome again? Presumably the the government politicians want to remain optimistic whilst the opposition parties would rather a pleasant surprise to egg on their face. Does make you wonder why you would want MPs to be on such a panel.
I’d be backing the SNP.
301, reminds me of a This Week edition where Ken Clarke stood in for Portillo and they had the slimiest, creepiest journalist I’ve seen for a long time (forget the name, alas) effectively arguing for a police state and insinuating politicians who opposed it were in ivory towers and couldn’t care less if people died.
Diane Abbot was not amused:p
291. I can afford to be ‘lazy’, if you’re happy to prove my points for me -
“An estimated 3.9 million Americans, or one in fifty adults, have currently or permanently lost the ability to vote because of a felony conviction.”
So if that’s to be believed, a full TWO PER CENT of voting age Americans could not vote on Tuesday - and many of them are not currently in jail. Truly incredible.
The rest of your post was completely baffling - you did notice I didn’t say a single word about Republicans or Democrats, didn’t you? It’s a shocking indictment of the country as a whole, not any particular party.
300. Yes,maybe it’s a very sad, very small attempt at astroturfing.
291 I think Massachssetts also disenfranchises felons.
301 - Exactly. The police would also like the idea of banning alcohol and fitting speed limiters to all vehicles fixed to 30mph. Doesn’t make them good ideas.
213 Thank you Broxtowe cat for that info, but I was actually thinking of a final salary pension scheme. I am sure I have read that the longer you live, the better it is not to have taken the lump sum at retirement( which most people do). I know the increased pension would be taxed , but over time surely taking a higher pension must work out better..if you live long enough..and dont need the lump sum. Its just a question of actuarially how many years?
296 Kodos is great (and his friend Kang)
285. those terrible oppressive regimes on the continent that you speak of do tend to be a bit better organised than us - food for thought?
Any news on turnout in Glenrothes - the after work rush should be starting up soon
304 I don’t see it as a shocking indictment of the US.
300 Maybe the ID card could entitle the bearer to discounts with vendors such as McDonalds. Iceland or Wetherspoons?
304. Stripping felons of the right to vote seems like an excellent idea to me.
308 - That depends what is done with the lump sum. If you use it for something that you could not afford out of a pension, then it is worthwhile even if it turns out to have been less valuable than having it paid in instalments of pension.
I’m in shock - the BBC in reporting the revised IMF report has included the sentence “Worst hit will be the UK, shrinking 1.3%, followed by Germany at 0.8% and the US and Spain contracting by 0.7%.”.
In reporting the EU forecast earlier this week and last months IMF report (thought too optimistic so they have issued a new one) the BBBC forgot to mention the forecasts for UK but now they have crossed the Rubicon and reported “Worst hit will be the UK”. Nick Robinson might even now be preparing a slightly sceptical report on Glenrothes and Labour, or is that too much too expect?.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7713778.stm
312. “I don’t see it as a shocking indictment of the US.”
Somehow that doesn’t surprise me. Perhaps we should bar anyone caught by a speed camera from voting - that would concentrate a few minds in Middle England.
I spoke to an SNP MP on Tuesday night who told me that they had canvassed the whole constituency three times and on Saturday alone put out 40000 leaflets - one to every household in the seat.
I suspect that Labour simply can’t match that level of activist organisation and infrastructure. Aleady holding the (near) coterminous Holyrood seat and having prepared for the by-election for more than 6 months, must put the SNP on the front foot?
I am genuinely surprised at the split between politicos and journalists.
We shall know in 7 hours time.
245: I wasn’t thinking of you, Albion, but if you have a look at the thread after the last Labour poll improvement you will indeed find several tories wailing like banshees. Take GIN’s posts, for instance. I teased him about it at the time and he took it in good part, amiable soul that he is.
249: Jimbo - exactly.
255 - TC: no, your speculation was less than half the actual figure at the time (you said 20% when it was 44%). I assume you just picked a number at random and quoted it as fact to see if anyone would respond with the correct figure (which I felt wouldn’t be a sensible thing to do at that time). Your latest post has another invention, that all Labour MPs can afford to have a paid agent. I certainly don’t have one. (My opponent has two!)
314. “Stripping felons of the right to vote seems like an excellent idea to me.”
Fair enough, but if felons make up such a significant chunk of the population (it would presumably be far more than 2% if those laws were applied consistently across the US) you can either a) bar them from voting, or b) you can be a true democracy which practices universal suffrage. You can’t do both.
308. It depends on the comutation factor used to convert pension to lump sum. Many schemes, some deliberately so, have not updated their factors for decades and so do not take account of mortality improvements meaning that for some people it may be a seriously bad idea to take a lump sum.
I am sure no one on this site would even think of gambling with their longevity.
Doh! Commutation.
310.That’s the issue in a nutshell. Do you want to be free or do you want to be organized? This is a country which has historically chosen the first. The bureaucrats who want to turn us over to Brussels want to turn us into the second. This is the front line of our politics. Where is the Tory party on this battlefield?
321 “I am sure no one on this site would even think of gambling with their longevity.” Sounds interesting. But how would you collect?
320. Fine - no problem with that. We don’t let lunatics vote, either. There’s a good case for excluding the illiterate, too.
321 - I think it depends more on what you want to do with the money and when than the commutation factor. Most people in these kinds of schemes are public sector workers who generally have a commutation factor of 12. This is way under what it should be to be actuarially neutral but people still go for it anyway because they want a big lump sum when they have retired and can use it rather than extra income in their later years when, frankly, they may not even be able to spend it.
308. If you take the maximum lump sum and invest , even taking out the amount of pension each year means it would last 20+ years. Considering that most people will be lucky to get that time span , it ensures that your family are likely to get something rather than it being lost. I believe most advice is to take the lump sum for that reason, and its tax free unlike the pension, which further enhances the option.
325. But then there’s be no Labour voters at all.
324. You remind me of the anecdote about Warren Buffet (I might even have read it on here). A charity fundraiser was asked about Buffet’s giving compared to Gates etc and diplomatically replied “we think he’s found a way of taking it with him”. This was before the $30bn donation to the Gates foundation.
325. What about John Stuart Mill’s idea of multiple votes for clever people like yourself, and only one vote for the rest of us?
326 - That is an excellent and much underappreciated point. Most discretionary spending in retirement is done in the earlier years when the pensioner is active. In later years, older pensioners aren’t up to spending much money (except on nursing care, for which they should make separate provision if they are able).
323 Disagree entirely, Thomas - in comparison (even with the Germans, who are stereotypically “efficient”) with other countries wwe often have chosen “organised” over “free”. Especially in regard to things like “Anti-social behaviour” where “free” is the last thing anybody seems to want!
regards the editorial point - in many ways, I agree that MPs are out of touch with ordinary people, but then so often are media commentators! In this case, views will have been formed based on canvass info, both formal and informal, so I would back the MPs here!
328.
:)
330. Even better! Perhaps we could weight votes by income tax paid. An eminently fair system that would also have the potential positive of reducing tax evasion.
317 We don’t let prisoners vote. That may or may not be right, but it doesn’t undermine our status as a democracy, and nor does depriving felons of the vote.
319 On reflection, Tories sometimes do wail like banshees. Particuarly, when saying the phrase “how can 30% of people still vote for Brown”. Unbelievable.
TC - is the Lib Dem goal really 100 seats? I would have thought 50 was a more realistic target, backed by the spreads. Would take an unprecedented turnaround to get them to 100 seats from here: Cons 39% Labour 23% Lib Dem 28% would give them about 100. Surely this is nigh on impossible?
By the way, I think the Lib Dems also shoot themselves in the foot at PMQs each week by attacking both the Tories and Labour. This will only alienate them from both, would it not be a better strategy to cosy up to the Tories and then try and take some anti-Labour votes from them further down the line? Attacking the stongest party doesn’t seem to make sense, surely they should be sticking the boot firmly into Labour to capture those voters who no longer vote Labour but are hesitant about turning Blue?
323 “Where is the Tory party on this battlefield?”
Well, that’s very clear: Against ID cards. Against 42 days detention without trial. Against extradition to the US without showing good cause. Against the misuse of surveillance powers by local authorities.
330. Sounds good to me. I think number of votes per person should be *algorithmically* related to their IQ.
My IQ is 140, so my vote should be worth forty times that of the average person, who has an IQ of 100 (by definition). The vote of the average person, in turn, should be worth 40 times that of a consistent Labour voter, who has an IQ of 60 (by definition).
I like!
The benefits of “true” democracy are greatly exaggerated. I’d prefer something like a voter licence fee - say £50 per year to get yourself on the register - subject to a threshold of having paid cumulative income taxes of, say, £10,000. This would generate a more responsible participatory democracy with a much smaller public budget.
325 Why stop there? Add the unemployed, public sector workers, TV commercial directors and those of sub standard IQ?
319, Nick P the info I had was that Labour in mid Oct were struggling at a 20% canvass and I thought that was where they started!
Regarding the agents, each MP has enough cash to pay for 5 people in Scotland (lower wages). What they all do is largely up to that MP. Why so many of your colleagues neglect this is a mystery as is the fact that the party chair does nothing about it.
But Nick having read your earlier piece I confess to sleeping a little easier tonight as I was not completely sure about the weak Labour canvass.
338 Of course, the rot set in when women got the vote. After that things went from bad to worse until finally we ended up with Tony Blair as Prime Minister.
(That’s a joke, by the way).
158 addition.
This does not mean Obama will be a bad leader, only that there is no possibility that he will an “exceptional leader”. It is 50/50 as to whether he’ll be bad or ok. The good category of leaders is what can be rationally eliminated for his future as President.
This is point for require a political background or experience for leadership. It does not eliminate the bad leaders, but every now and then a exceptional leader get’s elected!
AP have called North Carolina for Obama
On thread: trying to think of possible explanations for the politicians being bullish for Labour that don’t involve falling back on the “Westminster bubble” explanations above: over what period of time was the phi100 survey conducted?
Reason: Mike Smithson has veered about a bit himself, betting on (/ considering betting on?) Labour at first and now tending towards SNP - could it be that the pundits and politicians have gone through the same process over the last few days? If so, and if the politicians were contacted before the other pundits for the phi survey, say a few days ago, they would be harder for Labour than the others would be being contacted now.
If they were all contacted in one hit yesterday then this idea goes out of the window of course.
Talking of phi, the Glenrothes poll this site conducted a few days ago is currently showing a perfect golden ratio of 38:61 for Labour:SNP. Nice.
215. I am very much against hanging and ID cards. But that doesn’t mean everyone is.
For those of us interested in politics, (and especially for the gamblers) it’s important that we make a distinction between what we think and what other people think.
345 - I recognise this, but the point that Richard Nabavi makes at 231 is also worth considering. You very rarely meet anyone passionately in favour of ID cards, but you often meet people who are passionately vote-changingly opposed.
334. “We don’t let prisoners vote. That may or may not be right, but it doesn’t undermine our status as a democracy, and nor does depriving felons of the vote.”
First point - our law does actually mildly undermine our status as a democracy. I believe I’m right in saying in Canada only two people in the whole country over the age of 18 are barred from voting. So Canada is clearly a little bit more democratic than we are.
But it’s obviously a much less important issue here, because a) we only bar people from voting when they’re actually IN JAIL, and b) in spite of having the biggest prison population is western Europe, it’s still miniscule compared to the US. I’d imagine something like 0.15% of the voting age population in this country are barred from voting - that’s a considerably lower figure than 2%. Once you get up to the American levels, it really does call into question whether the principle of ‘universal suffrage’ is being applied.
343 - Oregon senate also been called for the Democrat by AP and NBC.
Still digesting the FTSE falling 5.6% on a day when we slashed interest rates to 3% - the lowest rate level since 1955, and I guess for most of us the lowest rate in our lifetimes.
It looks like the rally failed, and as a consequence the market is likely to test new lows. Madasafish’s view of the market may start to look mainstream before much longer.
Looks like North Carolina will officially declare it’s result on Dec 1st. However, AP has called the state for Obama today. Looks like bookies will be holding our monies till Dec 1st?
346. That’s a good point. I also suspect that those who are against ID cards are also more likely to vote. But I suspect they’re either Libertarian Tories or Left-Liberals, so not many centrist swing voters (yourself and Morus excepted, I’m sure most swing voters don’t spend a vast amount of their time on pb.com).
334- Criminals are voting in the U.S., just not in the standard ways. How else to explain all the voting irregularities in places like Philadelphia and Milwaukee resulting in thousands of extra Democratic votes, not to mention ACORN’s criminal activities? Somehow it all comes out in the wash.
357 - you can be disqualified from voting if you commit certain electoral offences even when not in jail.
338 - you having a laugh? You’d have to be earning well into the higher tax band to be paying 10k in income tax in a year.
We should just make the ballot form very complex, so that a reasonably high level of cognitive activity is needed to fill it in correctly. Then just void any ballots that aren’t completed correctly….
Completely off topic: Conservative Home are officially nuts.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/11/on-the-virtues.html
Talking about convicted felons, here’s Nate Silver on the ‘Stevens effect’, or how people claim they aren’t going to vote for a crook but then do.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html
In fact we don’t know the Alaska senate result yet as there appear to be many absent ballots uncounted. There and Georgia are just two states where the voting figures just don’t add up as yet, either late counting or whatever it is there are a fair few questions that need posing as regards certain states.
Somebody asked upthread why Oregon was taking too long, I read it was because of very large ballot papers that were difficult to count quickly because of the number of different questions that were being put.
343 Phew!
No chance of them doing the same for Missouri, I suppose.
353. “you can be disqualified from voting if you commit certain electoral offences even when not in jail”
I didn’t know that, but the numbers affected must be tiny.
354- That’s sort of what happened in Florida in 2000, when thousands of Democrats in southern Florida complained, after marking and casting their ballots, that they couldn’t figure out how to not vote for Pat Buchanan.
@355:
Ah, good old Andrew Lilico. ConHome’s favourite dare-to-be-different intellectual-cum-troll.
He’s dreamy.
336. These are good things, but you and I both know that there is an elephant in the room and no-one knows what the Tories are going to do when they eventually admit to seeing it.
344. Perhaps the politicians just cannot get out of the habit of being economical with the truth. The Labour ones do not want to undermine the message on the ground or about el supremo bruin. Whilst the opposition wish to build the Government up for the later fall.
@361:
According to Nick Palmer, we’d shoot it.
358 - they are. I was being rather pedantic (probably unecessarily so - bit of a bad character trait).
It is though a ban related to the specific offence so I think not unreasonable
355. That kind of article has appeared in the papers recently too. I don’t know if it’s a fashion amongst a certain metropolitan crowd now or an attempt to woo Asian readers. (?) It is fairly odd.
350 John B.
The bookies can pay out when they like. Some paid out on N Carolina yesterday, and I expect the rest will do so now.
It’s different for Betfair but I think even they may pay now.
@365:
Andrew Lilico is not a ‘crowd’. We should be thankful of that.
350 / 366 - we’ve settled. The only unsettled markets are now Missouri & the over/under 369.5 as I don’t fully trust NBC’s call for McCain (even though that would be a better result for us!)
367 and others - the comments on that are suggesting he’s nuts.
Speaking of nuts, and totally off topic - those who have been predicting the GOP civil war soon after the US election have already gotten their wish:
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/erick/2008/nov/05/operation-leper/
This is a blog that is often used on Sky News as well BTW.
What odds on Obama in 2012?
369 Andrew Lillico isn’t nuts, but I think at times he likes to provoke.
But the organisers of Operation Leper are definitely nuts.
370 - he does seem like a classic provoker, though it’s something you have to be quite skillful at to not come across as attention seeking.
In his case, he does come across as a bit “look at me, look at me, I’ve said something controversial”.
Funny thing about this Operation Leper is the way they’re attacking…. wait for it… Fox News.
359- Stars and Stripes
I remember Republican supporters sporting “Democrats - too dumb to vote” t-shirts during protests near courthouses during the recounts in nov 2000
371.
More on Operation Leper.
Dontcha just Luuuurve these fundamentalist christians with their defecit of forgiveness and surfeit of profanity?
One of the milder postings on http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=277539 is this:
“If the Republicans want my vote they had better start standing for something other than ‘Not a Donk’.”
Of course this time they stood on the ‘Double Donk’ ticket.
349
My nearest comparison is 1971-1974.
We amy not be as bad as that but personal debt is much much worse…
The FT Share Index fell just under 70% in 2 years .. and then rallied big style…
Not a pleasant time…
Lol:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7713217.stm
369- That’s a civil war? Sounds like a tempest in a tea cup.
359 - wasn’t that ballot designed by a Democrat Election Commissioner?
377- Yes indeed, the infamous “butterfly ballot.”
To answer the question posed by the thread it would appear that the M.P.’s have completely mis-read Glenrothes.
How Gord will cope this defeat is questionable
The SNP said turnout was estimated to be in the 15-20% range at lunchtime. They made no public comment but an SNP source said: “We are in as good a position as we were in at this stage in Glasgow East.”
……and the M.P.’s all know what happened at Glasgow East
361.
“no-one knows what the Tories are going to do when they eventually admit to seeing it.”
Shelter under the rear end and wait?
336.
“the Tory party on this battlefield?”
Well, that’s very clear: Against ID cards. Against 42 days detention without trial. Against extradition to the US without showing good cause. Against the misuse of surveillance powers by local authorities.”
…until the early hours of the day after the next General Election.
Just like they luuurved starting illegal wars on the back of packs of lies till the day after the last one.
200.
“I have more faith in Cameron sticking to his word than Labour or the Lib Dems.”
On his overall record, I have more faith on Cameron sticking to Labour.
376 - from little acorns. Or little ACORN
375 Britain “not as bad as Congo” shocker!!
Over on Conhome right now Michael Fabricant sallies forth on “education in Muslim states”. Apparently, he gives the Mohammedans a ‘reet wiggin’!
Assuming the SNP win this seat (and I have been backing them from 1/4 all the way to 5/6), the Labour spin (and I am impressed by Nick Palmer’s comments-unless he has fooled me , of course) is clear.
They will claim that one more week would have given them victory, but we all know that the reality is quite different-their recovery stalled and went into reverse about a week ago and another week would probably have made matters worse.
I do think that Nick has a point in suggesting that it won’t really have a critical effect in the UK as a whole, but a second successive by-election victory for the first time in their 75 year history would sharply increase further the SNP credibility for Westminster elections.
“one more week would have given them victory”
It’s ludicrous for Labour to claim that when, as the party of the Member whose death caused the by-election, they had the power to decide when the election should be held.
386
The effect on the UK is there for the making. Suggesting that Brown wouldn’t win his own seat, reminding Labour MPs they are going to be out of a job, enabling Wee Eck to keep the pressure on Westminster, scoffing at the Brown Bounce. These are all possible with an SNP win. If Labour wins, do you really think that Brown won’t mention it on a regular basis?
Oregon Republican Senator Smith concedes.
“With 100 percent of the counties reporting, Merkley received 48.4 percent of the vote to Smith’s 46 percent.
Smith’s defeat means Democrats now hold 57 seats in the Senate. The outcomes of three races remain unclear — Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/06/smith-concedes-defeat-in-oregon/
Not much from SNP supporters about Glenrothes why not?) but Nick at [211] sounds pretty low:
“At this point I don’t see why I shouldn’t be frank about details. Once again we found that the level of canvass data was zero, and I don’t mind saying that I’m fed up with going to one by-election after another and finding that this is so often the case in safe seats.”
“Labour MP reveals party pessimism over Glenrothes byelection”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/nov/06/byelections-gordonbrown
391- Is this the first newspaper article based only on pb comments?
I hope Nick won’t get in trouble for that.
Colorado (key Swing State in future Presidential election) - Obama lead has edged up to almost 8%.
392.
I second that but how can Nick get into trouble for being honest.If anything his standing within “Westminster Village” must have risen.
A honest politician is most refreshing
392. I can’t see the party hierarchy being too thrilled with Nick’s comments. They are pretty damning.
I have just heard from SNP workers in Glenrothes that it is in the bag. An SNP majority of approx 5000. You have heard it here first!!
394- 395- I guess that’s why most people here post anonymously, especially MPs (Mike S regularly says that several MPs post here under pseudonyms)
395. Pretty successful expectation management, though. Does anyone else feel odd knowing that the Guardian is reading our comments?
I respect your honesty Nick Palmer. If the party big wigs have any brains they will be more concerned with the damning verdict than ticking you off.
396- A 5000 majority seems a bit high, especially with a low turnout.
Gay activist bloggers have taken a fancy to threatening violence against supporters of California’s Proposition 8, including burning down churches:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/6081
Let’s hope these haters aren’t beyond the reach of the law.
394 etc: And they’ve managed to misquote him Palmer..said he thought the SNP had “got it in the bag”.
No he didn’t. I refer the court to post 211:
“most observers thinks [sic] they’ve got it in the bag.”
391. Grauniad subediting up to its usual standard: “Nick Palmer made his comments in a contributor to a discussion on the PoliticalBetting website”.
390. Nick sounds somewhat more p’ed off that he puts in hours and hours of work getting canvass returns and campaign information - which as an MP in a marginal, he has to - while colleagues in safe seats do sod all. If the level of turnout in safe Labour seats is anything to go by, that’s a fairly widespread phenomenon in his party. By contrast, the Tory Party often has the reverse problem: activists staying in safe seats to chalk up massive majorities (though not as big as Labour’s in percentage terms), while the marginals struggle for lack of activist support.
God help Nick “Maverick” P if Labour win this
Oh, and if the Guardian are reading, can I have a job with you please? My specialist subjects are sport and I have a little bit of a working knowledge of US politics.
401. Gay violence? Not that scary.
395. It comes to something if the party hierachy is more bothered about an MP speculating about a defeat a few hours before polls close than about the prospect of the defeat itself.
392 - “get into trouble”? What are they going to do to him? If parties want to shoot the messenger then more fool them.
400 - I was not able to get to Glenrothes today due to a hospital appointment. I intend phoning the campaign team about 8pm to see what their mood is, I will let you all know then.
I’m begining to think that Madasafish’s market forcast will prove too optimistic. If one lookes at Blomberg’s DOW curve today, it resembles a fairly steep slide, DOW -443.
The reason IMHO is because the interest rate cuts resemble exactly those done prior to the Great Depression. Eventually UK rates in the depression was 1/2% and deflation was the main problem.
Markets maybe erratic, but they are not fooled by government inspired rate movements.
My forcast is for a January 1st 2009. Footsy: 3330.
#396 And would SNP supporters tell you that? Your posting history suggests you are not exactly friendly towards the SNP.
Looks like Missouri is tightening up a touch - I guess that’s absentee ballots or a recount? Under 6k in it now.
405- That’s right, as long as only right-wingers are menaced, it’s okay…
Here’s The Onion’s tragic take on what will become of obsessed Obama supporters now that the election is over (see the video):
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/blogs/fortyfourthestate/
409- Try as I might, I still can’t find any signs of the much-hyped Obama market rally…
Weren’t the stock markets of the world supposed to react with a jubilant buying frenzy?
413- It is a bit like the “biggest turnout ever”…
411. I threw away a betting slip for Obama 370+ EVs, if Obama wins Missouri I’m going to be so pissed.
412. I’ll bet you a fiver, no violence comes of it. People talk big on blogs all the time. I was just making a joke about the fact that the gay community is not the most frightening one.
Seen that video before, was very amusing. This is quite good too, if copying the onion’s style bit much.
http://www.borowitzreport.com/article.aspx?ID=6957
PB: the home of breaking news.
More seriously, Mr Palmer shouldn’t get into trouble. If the upper echelons actually read the comments and take action to improve canvassing in safe seats it would help them out both in future by-elections and the general election.
Still hope Glenrothes goes SNP and think it will, but far from certain.
What chance the swing against Labour in Glenrothes being WORSE than Glasgow East? That would cause some jitters….
417, very little. Labour’s polling has improved substantially since then and Iceland’s predicament has hardly bolstered nationalism.
If, however, Labour did lose more in a swing than Glasgow East, they’re completely ruined for the next GE.
391. 392. Of course if Nick P is spinning he will not get into trouble for just doing his job!
414- The rationale for a rally seemed to vary from general global ecstasy over Obama’s victory to the argument that markets love “certainty.” I’m not so sure, though, that markets love the certainty of higher taxes, greater regulation, more trade barriers, etc.
415- It’s true that many bloggers have mouths that their actions would never match in a million years, so let’s hope that’s the case here too.
BOTH Labour and SNP odds narrowing slightly on Betfair. weird!
Apologies for going off-topic but I didn’t get the chance to post on this morning’s thread re lessons from the US election.
Primaries:
- Iowa is notoriously contrarian: lay the favourite / back an outsider who will perform well in caucuses.
- Polls can be well out as they have difficulty modelling turnouts. Treat them with suspicion. I won money on both New Hampshire and California against the polls (sadly, not as much as I could have done in NH but I got cold feet near the results being announced)
- Candidates have to compete in the early primaries; Giuliani’s ‘Start in Florida’ was always doomed. Lay any candidate trying that sort of strategy and any who is unlikely to perform well in the early states.
- Negative campaigning doesn’t work in a multi-cornered contest: there are too many targets. The GOP nomination should have been Romney’s (whose strongest suit would have been the right one as things turned out), but he spent too much time attacking others and not enough promoting himself. Negative works in a two-way fight, can just work in a three-way but is very difficult to succeed with if more are still standing.
- Money counts. I initially backed Hillary because she had the money, the contacts and the machine. As it became apparent that Obama was gaining more money, I switched (my single most profitable bet was Obama at about 9/1 pre-Iowa). But money only counts if a candidate can get through the early rounds and up to Super-Tuesday.
General Election
- The polls are much better at this stage than in the primaries.
- The debates matter. The winner of the debates is likely to win outright.
- Money and machines count but count less than in primaries.
- The US is becoming quite fractured in terms of solid blue and red states. The days of a 49-1 result as Reagan had in ‘84 are over for the time being. Avoid backing landslides unless one candidate is seriously useless.
- The VP pick is a lottery. Good luck.
- The incumbent has a big advantage. Obama is right to be odds-on even at this stage.
I’m sorry I can’t respond to any of these points as I’m out for the evening. Hope to be back for the Glenrothes result.
Did some googling, apparently the Missouri delay is provisionals. Most are from Obama areas (St Lou city/county), but in the last two elections most provisionals get chucked out. Unless that changes, it’s McCain’s.
Voting against the leadership and quoted negatively in the Guardian in the same week?
Defection alert…?
418
I think Nick Palmer’s “honesty” tells all in the Gurardian article ;). Honesty, gimme a break, Nick Palmer has previously posted that telling the truth on PB would be madness (or words to that effect). We will soon know for sure……….
This 1.5% cut in rates seems completely OTT to me. This looks and smells of complete panic and seeing the BoE acting hysterically in this way is going to send completely the wrong message, IMO. Yes, rates do need to come down, but not by more than 1% per month. It makes me wonder if Mr Boom and Bust has something to do with this decision?
409
I think we may go sideways in December… but ….
I am expecting a FTSE low under 2500 but not for a while… but of course if it’s like 1971-74 THE low would be around 1900.
As the BOE are obviously in full headless chicken mode, anything is possible.
re 392 what’s going on? Firstly Nick P break’s the habit of a lifetime and votes against the government then he savages them on the record.
Does anyone know who Anne Houston is (396). Is this to be trusted?
Spin machine in overdrive
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/11/oops-labour-hav.html
428 Defection alert?
Incidentally I’ve just completed a YouGov political poll
#429 This may help explain:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=%22Anne+Houston%22+site%3Apoliticalbetting.com&meta=
Also, I think its pretty outrageous that The Guardian spends their time trawling through discussion, picks up a candid comment that Nick Palmer has shared with us, and feature it on their website. As far as I’m aware Nick posts on here for fun in his spare time, he is up front about his identity and he should be able to post his views and opinions on things without worrying his comments are going to end up all over the newpapers.
“Journalist” Chris Matthews of MSNBC (which network our friend Socrates finds to be right-wing) actually says that he sees it as his job to to everything in his power to make Obama’s presidency a success. When questioned whether it is really his job as a journalist to make Obama’s presidency a success, he says “Absolutely.”
Unbelievable.
Maybe this is how BBC journalists feel about Labour.
I would provide you with the link to the video but PB doesn’t allow links from the relevant site.
426…the cut was not a BoE decision. it has the fingerprints of “The Prince of Darkness” all over it.
re 433 So not a prolific poster then. Hmm I wonder whether I should risk a tenner!
re 434 they’re probably more in the public domain here than they are in the Guardian.
re 436 you mean Mandelson?
432. That will be for The Sunday Times. We should have had Populus in The Times by now. I wonder if we’ll get it tonight?
439…yes.
New thread - Little sign of punter support for Labour
I would love for Dr. Palmer to be able to speak candidly and without consequence here at PB, but it is a fact of life that if you post under your real identity on a widely read blog and you are a public figure, you have to be careful about what you say. I only hope that Nick is not browbeaten into submission and silence by Labour’s baying hounds at the Guardian.
Surprised the Guardian mentioned Pb.com fopr once - normally they just seem to take the story/post and use it.
Labour has been quite clever with expectation management this time - they put out the story “we are 5000 behind” early on so any loss in range 1-2000 can then be trumpeted as an improvement over the campaign/only needed another week/without Gordon it would have been worse and a victory by 1 vote or more an absolute triumph, confirming the comeback story.
SNP weren’t going to say “no, we are behind” were they? no proper polls to give an independent view. Then its a cold dark November day so turn out will probably be low so a big SNP numerical majority unlikely even on a Glasgow East swing.
Thing is, today’s base rate cut has suddenly changed the tone in the media - if BoE think we need a huge cut then the forecast for the economy must be bad, IMF say UK worst hit, bad news in manufacturing and service industries - and Barack is yesterdays news. It’s the economy now and a Labour defeat, even by a small amount, will feed into a new narrative.
415 Seriously G?
If you give the bookie the details, there’s a fair chance you’ll get paid.
303. That was Tony Parsons. I only worked that out from the “slimy, creepy” bit.
“This time Brown & co saw the writing on the wall for the banks in time (but only just) and bailed them out before they were forced to. Whether this will ultimately have a happy outcome for Brown remains to be seen, but so far his government has handled the crisis better than Major’s did and this is reflected in the polls -”
Huh? Are you dim daft or demented ‘nickc’ ?
The govt were in blind panic and totally out of touch when they came back from the summer recess. Darling stood up in parliament and gave a non statement and shares fell even as he was speaking. He was clueless about what was happening. The whole banking crisis blew up in their faces.