So what changes on 2005 will we see overnight?
November 6th, 2008
The result thread?
I am still knackered from Tuesday/Wednesday so won’t be staying up for the result.
The betting should continue right until the declaration.
Cheers,
Mike Smithson
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first
First
They say, too close to call. But SNP by 670.
One of you was right
Doh.
SNP with 7,000 Majority.
“No more boom and bust”
wot happened to snp price on BF?
BBC now calling for Labour; big majority but with a swing to the SNP
Mood seems to be changing to a pretty comfortable Labour win - 3-5,000. Never mind how Labour would spin such a result; just what were the electors on if that is indeed the result?
So this BBC report is wrong?:
UPDATE AT 2339 GMT:
Yet more gossip. Early boxes perhaps indicate Labour victory. Jim Murphy now forecasting Labour victory. Libs fourth? Toiries third.
BBC Radio 5 Live just said a comfortable labour win.
copied from Channel 2
Before everyone gets too excited, what price were Labour as the Dunfermline returning officer mounted the stage?
Labour at the count are predicting a 1000 vote majority on the basis of the early boxes.
Mike Smithson loses money betting against Labour, shocker?
On Radio Scotland Tories are saying 5000 Labour majority based on their ballot box samples.
re 3 get your money on now, then!
As far as the BBC is concerned it’s all over: Labour win.
And copied from PB2 - what’s the English equivalent of this seat?
On this evidence (if true) Labour is strengthening its position - in its heartlands. There’s no evidence thus far that the Brown ‘bounce’ has been bought anywhere else. Hence whilst the SNP appear to have slumped in recent Westminster polls the Tories has remained relatively consistent. That should probably check any other confidence on Brown’s part.
It looks like a Labour win so congrats to them.
Considering how little the campaign has been covered in the south I can’t claim to be surprised about the result as there has been literally no coverage of it.
Well I’m staying up for this one, Labour victory close, what a triumph if it happens
If Labour have won thank you to whomever has saved my bacon on Betfair! I’m now all green
Wow, amazing result!
General election now! Five more years! Five more years!
Obama and Brown for a progressive future!
Cool Britannia!
Okay, a bit of sarcasm…
Glasgow Ballieston ward byelection
ANDERSON, John Scottish Conservative and Unionist 226
BAILLIE, Charles British National Party 46
CASSIDY, David Scottish National Party (SNP) 2027
CRAWFORD, Moira A Scottish Green Party 32
JACKSON, David Scottish Liberal Democrats 142
MUIR, Andy Scottish Labour Party Elected 2257
O’DONNELL, Daniel Scottish Socialist Party-Scrap Council Tax 88
Final round:
Muir 2383
Cassidy 2193
Labour hold
Crick isn’t having much luck - he said Labour would hold Glasgow East and the SNP would gain Glenrothes…
BBC reporting comfortable Labour win so far, apparently one of the reasons for Labour winning is that the residents of Glenrothes are proud of Gordon being PM! Oh dear oh dear
Sh1t result (if true) but well done Labour. You have cemented Brown in place until 2010.
As I suspected, looks like a good Labour win. Well done to them. Some highly effective manipulation of the likes of Ben Brogan too.
I was suspicious of Labour’s spin. I expect Brogan will be more careful in future.
The fact remains Brown is the PM and the local boy.
Also, looks like the committee of sages got one right and the punters got it wrong. Oh well, nobody can be right all the time…
If Labour have indeed won by 3,000+ it’s a truly disastrous result for Salmond.
And it looks very much like the media narrative is still on, dammit.
20
no probs
From vote-2008: Labour’s won the Glasgow East council by-election:
ANDERSON, John Scottish Conservative and Unionist 226
BAILLIE, Charles British National Party 46
CASSIDY, David Scottish National Party (SNP) 2027
CRAWFORD, Moira A Scottish Green Party 32
JACKSON, David Scottish Liberal Democrats 142
MUIR, Andy Scottish Labour Party Elected 2257
O’DONNELL, Daniel Scottish Socialist Party-Scrap Council Tax 88
Final round:
Muir 2383
Cassidy 2193
Recent byelection 1st pref
SNP 2318 Lab 2167 Con 259 LibDem 159 Sol 74 BNP 73 SSP 58 Green 45 SUP 43
Final SNP 2511 Lab 2313
If Labour have held on by 5,000 then the way the SNP have postured tonight, prior to the count, smacks of appalling complacency and arrogance. It looks like Labour will be more competitive against the SNP in Scotland than they will be against the Tories in England.
Comfortable Labour win SO FAR? I had the impression it was all over bar the declaration.
Well done to anyone who laid the SNP at short prices today. People are taking the 5/1 about a Labour overall majority at the GE with us. I think the prices on an early election will have to come under pressure.
This is a shocking for the SNP (and my betfair balance). Just glad I grabbed some 10-3 at the start so I’m going to end up even. Looks like the recovery in the polls is down to the heartlands then.
16 - How’s Labour strengthening it’s position when a majority is reduced? Eh?
Mining villages not in the Scottish Parliament seat stayed rock-solid Labour.
i wonder if any thought has been given to removing Gordon and replacing him with Sarah, if she can pull off this kind of thing
Hmm - I was suspicious earlier this evening and tried to lay off my SNP position. Got a little amount off at 1.17, then it started drifting. (Not a lot of money, but still - it’s the principle).
But is it true? BBC Radio at midnight say counting still in progress.
I wonder what the press will make of this. Brown and Sarah will be hailed as great saviours.
No f**king way.
I’ve told everyone I work with that Labour would lose this by a thousand or more.
Don’t know whether to be delighted that we might do a lot better or worried tht I’m going to look a total idiot as an election forecaster.
Dec 04 GE perhaps?
Lets just be thankful that this by-election is relatively low profile. To most people ‘Labour hangs on in safe seat’ isn’t going to change much. The clearly shifting narrative about Britain’s economic situation will.
Probably. But let us hope that the ‘not actually best placed but worst placed’ narrative will hurt them.
‘People are taking the 5/1 about a Labour overall majority at the GE with us.’
Based on this. Bizarre.
Lets hope no one passes the rate cut on!
Lets make those who have borrowed imprudently suffer - they deserve to live in a tent!!
I think interest rates should be 10%. It sthe only way o deal with inflation and the recession!!!
38 Yeah right. She met a couple of people, and her minders were involved in a threat by an apparatchik to shoot someone. Sure fire winner.
Hmmm. I’ve just had to cut a 2008 election from 33 to 16. Is it even logistically possible? Some people think it is.
First Brown rescues the world economy and now he rescues Glenrothes from certain defeat. Is there any thing this man can’t do? Move over Obama, now there’s a new “The One”!
What else happened today? Oh, there was that one and a half percent cut in the interest rate.
About 3 weeks to have an election Shadsy - No-one would like Gordon for having to campaign in late Nov (I think in 1911 there was an election in December)
If Labour do win comfortably then the possibilty of an independent Scotland is gone for good.
Thanks, marcia. As I said on the other channel, you’ve always been careful not to make a prediction and your canvassing reports were always fair, unlike MalcolmG, Easterross and one or two others, who have been gloating for weeks that we’d get thumped by a huge margin due to our supposed lack of activists.
As I thought we’d get thumped too, I can’t talk, of course, but if confirmed it’s a wonderful result in the circumstances, and vindicates Gordon and Sarah piling in. I’d also bet on a promotion for Frank Roy, the MP who’s been quietly running the campaign from the zero starting point that I described earlier today.
50 Yes. Panic by the BOE.
48. Keep taking the money, I’ll run naked through the streets of Aberdeen if there’s an 08 election.
B*gg*r. Could have been worse if I hadn’t had 10/3 Labour but I stuck my neck out and will need to issue a profit warning soon!
If the rumours are true, this is an excellent Tory result. Brown’s position is cemented - which should be good news for the English marginals; the LDs are seriously wounded if they come third; and Salmond’s bubble is pricked, strengthening Unionism and possibly improving the Tory Scottish position. A third place in a seat like Glenrothes is more than Cameron would have looked for.
Agree with those who say that a 5000 majority for Labour represents a very good result for them. SNP credibility would be somewhat damaged. To hold in mid-term like that is decent. I predicted a Labour hold mostly because Gordon Brown is such a coward normally that unless inside information was telling him it was a sure thing, there was just no way he would let his name be associated with the campaign. Hugely cynical of him but there you are …
49-LOL! What about his wife? She’s “the one”.
Repeating what I said on pb beta.
This is a jolly good night for Labour (though I bet they wish they hadn’t buried it under Obama - and the interest rate slash). The Brown-bounce media narrative will continue - though it will now conflict with the changing narrative about our “best placed economy”.
But fair’s fair and hats off to Gordon: he showed cullions in coming to the seat, and he’s won it. He deserves a little whisky this evening.
The LDs and Tories are both ancillary to this contest, but the Tories will be mildly depressed, and the LDs should be heartily suicidal - their vote is collapsing everywhere.
The biggest loser of all is Alex Salmond (and the SNP). He was on telly boasting of a political earthquake - now he looks like a smug and grinning chump.
Surely, however, the biggest winner tonight is…. MEEEEEE!!!! Weeks ago, I told everyone to pile on Labour at 3/1. I said that was value. I voted in our poll for a Labour win, and I predicted a Labour win tonight on the last thread.
I just had a hunch, all along, that Labour would do it - the seat is too Scottish and old Labour and Labour have consolidated their heartlands since the Krunch, and I felt the SNP crypto-independence narrative was running out of what credibility it had left; shame I was right about the result.
But at least the pound has collapsed this evening, so it’s not all bad.
41: you and me both, hopi. But hey, there are worse things than being too pessimistic, eh?
48. Sure they’ve held the seat (we think) but with a slashed majority in an area with a likely significant personal vote for Gordon Brown. Factor that in, and the argument that all this shows is that the Brown recovery is in the Labour heartlands and it is a pretty tenuous base on which to hold a General Election. It’s all excitement.
51. It was December in 1910 and in 1923..
re 48 of course it is. Dissolution on Monday, election on 4th December
Radio Scotland saying margin of victory could be 7,000. Nightmare.
Nick P - seeing as though I haven’t got an answer anywhere else
In your experience, what is the English equivalent of Glenrothes?
Might go a long way to answering the Labour Heartlands theory over polls
I am interested to see if the LD vote held up reasonably or not.
ANyone else impressed with Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy. Confident, fluent, no pushover - I’d not seen him speak before, but I might keep an eye out for him from now on.
44 I hope their are LOTS of Tories out there saying they hope the recession hits the UK more than other countries just for their own party political advantage. The more people hear, or read, you saying that, the better for Labour. Keep it up!
61 Congratulations Mr Palmer.
BBC saying Labour win and SNP talking head is blaming negative labour campaigning.
Can anyone be surprised that SNP faltering.
Who in their right minds can think an independent Scotland is viable?
61. True, true. Still, the one downside is now i’ll have to stay up to watch it. Nice to see some people who gave their all in Glasgow looking a bit happier in Glenrothes.
65. if its anywhere near 7000 this is a great victory for labour and possibly a sign that Gordon should go for the GE now whilst the cracks have been painted over with the interest rate slashed.
Big Labour majority says Crick on BBC. Big Labour majority. But will anyone notice amid the Obama afterglow?
Lets face it - this looks like being a great result for Labour and will indeed keep the media narrative on a Labour fightback.
Thoughts
- this has been a Gordon Brown by-election rather than a Scots Labour one, he seems to have chosen the candidate, the team and with Jim Murphy planned the campaign. The attempt by Scots Labour to get more autonomy from the national party is over. Gordon is back as leader of the Scots Labour.
- Salmond honeymoon over
- if the Lib Dems come in a poor fourth then they have to really look seriously at what’s happened to their campaign machine.
70. Albion - amd also to Lindsay Roy!
68 - He is very good, and his handling of the Lisbon Treaty passage in Parliament was a solid demonstration of this.
Seriously though, this must be the first bit of veritable good news that Brown’s had since he bottled the election. This must warm the cockles of his heart.
“I hope their are LOTS of Tories out there saying they hope the recession hits the UK more than other countries just for their own party political advantage.”
I don’t think a single Tory has said that. What they have been saying is that Gordon Brown is talking nonsense when he talks about how well-prepared we are. After those prejections today, you can see where they are coming from. If anyone is milking this for his advantage it is Brown and his team of spinners.
53 - thanks I just tried to report what I found. I didn’t find the same atmosphere as Glasgow East. To correct your comment on the other channel. The win in Ballieston was a hold for Labour as one of their councillors died. The 3rd by-election since July in that area.
If it is 7,000 it is a truly terrible night for the SNP. They were so confident and will look like utter fools. Good for Brown but he needs to win much more than Glenrothes i’m afraid!
The heavy rain and black, black evening was terrible for the SNP. In Glasgow East labour were trouncing the SNP during the day and then the SNP vote came out in the evening after work.
That didn’t happen today.
64 Nice early Christmas present.
81 - 54 the number changed.
67. It’s difficult to answer, it’d be like fight Bolsover or Ashfield against an insurgent East midlands nationaliist party.
Good result for Labour.
Fair do. Hats off.
Not sure what this means for the SNP as this was a tough call with Gordon local boy living next door [some of his home town in the patch].
I suspect the SNP have problems ahead as they now have a record to contend with and independence has taken a hammering.
74 Whatever the result tonight, if Gordon went for a GE now he would be mad, Labour are still way behind in the polls despite the favourable coverage in recent weeks. Labour will lose heavily.
Glenrothes is a safe Labour seat, to win by a reduced margin is still a bad result in reality regardless of how they will try to spin it
76. The Liberals are stuffed. Classic 1980s third party squeeze going on now as I keep mentioning.
83. even more of a reason to go for a GE in december Labour voters come out a lot more and tend to be solid IMHO
86. Yes. Ashfield is a good analogy.
89. Where they are weak, the Liberal vote will collapse to the SNP, but will hold up in the seats they currently hold.
89. Not only that, but they’re still being primarily anti-Tory, going by Ming a little while ago. They could be in big trouble in LD/Con marginals.
“Glenrothes byelection: SNP concedes defeat”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3394248/Glenrothes-byelection-SNP-concedes-defeat.html
74 The problem is that the interest rate cut isn’t being passed on to the public, and they know it. Look at the number of tracker mortgages the banks have pulled off the market today.
Brown’s seen to be helping the fat cats (again) whilst the average mug punter gets stuffed over (again).
88. Nah. If Labour come home with 3,000+ it’s a stunning result in a third term midterm in a recession, and I speak as one who had kinda hoped they’d lose. Portillo saying any sort of win is dreadful news for the Tories as their strategy is based around Labour shipping tonnes of Scottish seats to the SNP.
So much so, Ben, that it becomes a bit tedious. Other parts of the country will be quite different, as you will see.
OK then, I guess its time to eat humble pie. I underestimated Labours heartland recovery and this is looking like a fantastic result for Labour and a personal triumph for Brown.
I’m seriously thinking he may call a winter election, possibly even before Christmas now. Amazing!
Oh dear - this should have been a shoo in for the SNP. If the Lib Dems or Tories had been not only runner up but had won last year’s Parliamnetary election in 90% of the seat then I have no doubt that Labour would have lost easily.
Hubris, ignorance and support for rich Americans intent on the destruction of the Scottish environment has clearly been found out - perhaps the SNP will now realise they are not a majority and start acting like a minority government that needs support from all parties.
I assume Stuart Dickson’s broadband is down this evening…
It’s over. Labour victory. Majority 3,000 - 5,000 most likely.
86 - cheerz. I had it down as the Tories defending Woking against a South East nationalist party
91. In term of managerial and professional, Glenrothes is closest to Nottingham North… but it’s in a different country…
Obviously a superb result for Labour if confirmed, where did this one come from? I guess the polis know more than the journalists after all.
I wasn’t at Glenrothes but I reckon Labour have worked smart and to do a two thirds voter id from scratch is remarkable. Jim Murphy is a very astute individual, one of the best we have, I am very pleased for Gordon Banks as well. I reckon it’s downhill for the SNP from here onwards - I was never convinced that a significant proportion of the Scottish electorate really wanted independence.
89: except, of course, that the Liberals got their best ever vote percentages in the 1980s. (26% and 23% IIRC)
A better comparison would be the 90s, when they got low- and then mid- teens. Of course, in 90s they got more seats on the back of better campaigns and more tactical voting.
Personally, I think the LibDems are out of touch with the zeitgeist. They should be cosing up to Cameron, while slapping the Labour party down at any moment. They should be hinting heavily to all their supporters in the South that, come a hung parliament, they could be an excellent restraining influence on the “John Redwood”-wing of the Conservative Party.
Of course, they won’t follow my advice and will lose half their seats in the election… but hey…
WELL DONE LABOUR!!!!
——————–
Yes you deserved it. Ok i hate Labour because they are total ****s and I hope all banks and building societies put rates UP to make those who have borrowed beyond their means SUFFER!!!
But we hate SNP and tonight celebrate their end! F*** off Salmond you c**t!!! SNP = scum.
SCOTLAND YOU BELONG TO ENGLAND NEVER FORGET!!!!!!!
71, 77: thanks Albion and Goupillon. I think that Lindsay Roy was underrated by a lot of people - he doesn’t look a slick professional politician, but if you abstract from the concrete case, wouldn’t most people rather have a local head teacher with a reputation for fighting drug dealers?
67: I’m not sure what you have in mind by ‘equivalent’? Equivalent majority? Not sure, but I’d think it’s less safe than Crewe and Nantwich was, though obviously not normally a marginal. What made it an obvious target was that the SNP is generally seen to be offering a predible alternative, rather more successfully than the Tories, so there was lots of scope for anti-Labour tactical voting if that’s what people wanted.
He’s closing the post Offices in the Uk tomorrow. Thoses supporters will be mightily pissed off with him when they get the news in the morning.
98. But if the recovery is in the heartlands, as this result suggests, then he’d be made to go to the country. Heartlands recovery does not equate to a general election triumph. Labour will do well not to get carried away by this
I try not to crow on here. But tonight has been a hugely profitable evening! The well-sourced rumours of a fairly comfortable Labour victory were there from 11:30, including on Radio Scotland, but punters were happily backing the SNP for a further twenty minutes or so at 2/5. Free money!
What price an independence referendum now in 2010? Alex Salmond must be praying that Labour oppose it (which they probably will, out of sheer caution).
If they do hold a vote, it will be lost very heavily, and the SNP will be finished - or at least it will split between hardline seperatists and civic nationalists.
Salmond knows that - ergo he doesn’t want a plebiscite.
96. Benbobjim: Portillo saying any sort of win is dreadful news for the Tories as their strategy is based around Labour shipping tonnes of Scottish seats to the SNP.
Ridiculous, since Lab/SNP seats don’t affect the Tory majority (as we know, hung parliament => Lib-Lab coalition).
97. I hope so. I am thinking of voting Liberal next time. But I just can’t see them being competitive in seats they don’t already hope. Sorry for the broken record thing, but that’s my analysis and I don’t think it’s had enough discussion until just now.
102. the sort o seat you’d expect to be safe in a GE, but risky in a by-election in other words (though as a nottingham boy, I know to my cost we lost it in 1983)
Waltham Forest Valley ward Conservative hold but 11% swing to LibDems .
Con 1183 LibDem 734 Lab 439
2006 Con 1710 LibDem 608 Lab 546
Yet another in a string of poor Conservative results in London byelections
108. Mad not made.
From the comments on the BBC it seems the poor performance of the SNP candidate as a councillor has been spun to the electorate as someone who takes money off the disabled.
Fortunately not a strategy that can be applied nationally.
106 - Roughly translated were you trying to say ‘Scotchland is Englands B*tch’?
106-LOL!
96. A stunning result is really pushing it, losing half the vote in a very safe seat is not good news for a GE. I can’t believe for one minute the Tories are basing their strategy for winning a GE on how the SNP do in Scotland. If the SNP win any seats I would imagaine the Tories see it as a bonus and nothing more.
108. Recovery in the heartlands does not mean recovery only in the heartlands..
Both Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East are now a very long time ago in electoral terms….
96 Portillo is so distant from understanding Conservative strategy that I think it can be ignored. The Conservatives would only be bothered by SNP v Labour if they are looking at largest party in a hung Parliament when the fewer seats Labour gets the better- they want a majority over all other parties.
It would help Cameron as UK PM if SNP do badly.
108. There has been something of a marginal recovery as well, as the last YouGov Marginals poll indicated. The question really is whether this is as good as things can get for Brown or not? If Labour can recover further, then he’ll be right to hang on until spring, but if this is as good as it can get, then he might as well go now and at least have a go. Its a judgement call, but for sure a winter 08/09 general election is definatly on the table now, IMO.
SNP have conceded - yay!
Oh my God I can’t believe this, I’m going to crack open a bottle of Moet!!
Well, ive managed to trade for an all green profit, I have no intention of staying up any longer to watch Labour win a bye -election. It’s great night for Labour, and Brown, Mandleson and Campbell, and a good night for them is sure a bad night for me. This I fear may be the turning point. At least the tip off of Labour winning has made me a bit of money, every cloud as they say. Have fun if your staying up.
121. I heard from the Tory campaign that a Labour win was their preferred result from a national perspective.
98. Fair enough. I still doubt an early election but my forecast of 2010 is now looking dodgy. It is possible they could cut and run in the spring and perhaps squeeze a hung parliament I guess.
re 96 what’s Portillo on? If the Tories get 326 seats it matters not a jot whether Labour loses all its seats to the SNP or the SNP is wiped out - the Tory majority stays exactly the same.
Lets not get too carried away about a superb result. If the SNP have halved the majority its not that great.
The fact is that with the majority, the location, the PM’s position next door, recent coverage, an SNP incumbent Government locally and in Scotland and a very local campaign - it was a huge ask for the SNP.
It could be argued it was a tactical mistake on their part to hype up their chances. It has played into Labour’s hands.
re 99 Stuart is in Thailand
97. I hope so. I am thinking of voting Liberal next time. But I just can’t see them being competitive in seats they don’t already have. Sorry for the broken record thing, but that’s my analysis and I don’t think it’s had enough discussion until just now.
**post corrected
99. “I assume Stuart Dickson’s broadband is down this evening…”
Stuart Dickson announced a while back that he was taking a break from the board. So, lest it be said that SNP supporters are keeping their heads down, here I am. I thought we’d sneak it (as apparently did the media) but I feel curiously at peace because of the margin of Labour’s victory. There are no ‘what if’ scenarios here - this in retrospect was clearly a tidal wave we were never going to avoid, probably mainly due to Gordon Brown’s increased popularity following the economic crisis, and perhaps Labour’s focus on the home care charges (which was based on a cynical misrepresentation of the true position, but that’s politics).
Before anyone is too quick to crow about the SNP’s position, just remember how we underperformed in both Livingston and Dunfermline & West Fife, and then came back to win the Holyrood elections in 2007. We’ll just have to see how things shake out from here.
119- I do believe Portillo was saying some ridiculous things back during the Crewe by-election too. He doesn’t seem to be quite all there. Is there a rational explanation for his need to depict everything as a disaster for the Tories?
121 isn’t the reverse the case? that an SNP resurgance is helpful to the tories in one situation: where Labour and Tories are both close to being he largest aprt in a hung parliament. In that situation, Lbaour losing an “additional” ten seats to the SMP strengthed the Tory chance of being the larget party (and/or denies Labour a narrow majority)
108 ‘Recovery in the heartlands’ I keep reading this, and yet it appears a majority has been halved in safe seat next to Gordon Browns constituency. How is this a recovery? It’s the equivalent of being told by a surgeon that he managed to save the leg, and only amputate below the knee.
“Is there a rational explanation for his need to depict everything as a disaster for the Tories?”
They picked IDS and not him. A mistake perhaps, but one he took personally.
106 yes! Scotland = ****s.
107 2 years to retirement - should have stayed with novartis hahahahahahahahahahahaha
99. Dan - “I assume Stuart Dickson’s broadband is down this evening…” LOL!
Labour has held Forth ward byelection for Edinburgh council
135 - Recovery from the lowest point in the polls (”we need to cut of both legs, an arm, and your unmentionables”).
134. Apparently not, for reasons I don’t claim to understand
Easterross. “Evening all, I have missed all today and most of yesterday’s posts. Well the polls have closed and John Pinar of BBC says he doesn’t think Labour will hold and everyone saying too close to call. Obviously I have always said SNP gain. Question is how close to the 5000 majority I originally predicted”
Forgive the overlong quote from the insufferably pompous Easterross (and this was a precis!) But as my coveted position as worst predictor on this site is about to be lost I thought it only right that I should hail the new holder of the title!
129. I think Sally in reality it is a pretty good result for Labour.
Deep in the mid term mire.
In a recession.
SNP govern Scotland.
Nothing riding on the result but pride and a single MP.
Labour hold the seat with a comfortable majority.
But Labour can’t make much of it as nobody knows or cares that it is on because Obama is everything, so it’s not a media narrative disaster for you guys.
Scheduling it for US polling week now looks a big mistake, but that’s with hindsight and nobody really expected Labour to hold it – especially not so easily.
re 134 I think the Tories think they’re winning an outright majority next time
Tomorrow’s front pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Fridays-Papers—Newspaper-front-pages-on-Friday-November-7-2008/Media-Gallery/200811115145342?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15145342_Fridays_Papers_-_Newspaper_front_pages_on_Friday%2C_November_7%2C_2008
The Guardian is reporting that “Brown may cut taxes to boost ailing economy”
135 - my memory may be hazy, but I’m sure there was a by-election in the dying days of the Major government that returned a Tory in a stronghold, albeit with a reduced majority.
If so, this is probably no different.
One thing is clear though, this is a wee slap in the chops for the SNP.
132 - over 4 decades I have seen worse results than this. It’s Labour’s night and we have to congratulate them. Most people seem to have mis-read this one. I was never confident at all, I just couldn’t put my finger on it. Something was just missing.
129. NO, this result should be hyped. Its an utterly brilliant and fantastic achievment and personaly endorsement of Gordon Brown. We’re third year of a third term labour government, in the middle of the worst financial crisis since 1929 and what is likely to be the severiest recession in generations, and Labour has not only held this seat but done so comfortably and with thousands of votes to spare. Compare what was happening in Tory heartland seats at this point in 1990 or 1991. This really is a stunning victory for Labour.
Gordon Banks and Jim Murphy will get plenty of credit for this, as will Frank Roy. Jim was previously rated for his piloting of the Lisbon Treaty through the Commons - I know that’s a red rag to some here, but it’s generally accepted in the Commons that his calm and pleasant manner did the job well.
121: the problem for the Tories is the narrative - they quite clearly wanted Labour to lose badly, and they wouldn’t have cared if it was to the SNP or the Independent Pensioner candidate. They’ve been able to get away with no fixed position on the economic crisis because it was assumed that they could coast to victory anyway. These results (including the council ones) put that in doubt, and it strains credulity that a marked Labour recovery in a mid-term by-election doesn’t have any counterpart in more marginal seats.
133 He was out-manoeuvred in his last attempt at leadership when MPs preferred to put Ian Douglas Smith alongside Ken Clarke to giving him a chance, showing the degree of dislike for him by his colleagues and now someone younger and better than him has changed the party successfully and put the party into a winning position.
Iceland and the Credit Crunch has obviously persuaded some more Scots that it’ll be better to stay subsidised by English taxpayers.
Glass of Moet anyone? So pleased the grin will be wiped off of smug Alex Salmond, the First Minister,who made numerous visits to Glenrothes and declared Victory. Some even wondered if he was the candidate!!
re 146 I’m afraid it is very hazy. Crewe was the first Tory bye election victory since 1982.
147. The other (admittedly slightly mischievous) consolation that occurs to me is that Labour clearly miscalculated by calling off the Motherwell and Wishaw by-election. Jack McConnell will be frustrated, but they can hardly go back on it now.
Sky saying Labour were so convinced they would lose they have not even organised any sort of party for the candidate. The SNP had organised a victory parade.
Turnout is 42.37 per cent.
153 - I wasn’t referring to a Labour stronghold
149. Gordon Banks and Jim Murphy will get plenty of credit for this.
But Brown will take the credit!
I must say the Labour lot don’t look very cheery if they have won! The SNP look more cheerful.
146 I thought hague was the last Tory by-election winner in ‘89?
143. It’s a good result in the sense that Labour thought they were going to lose, but it’s not good result in reality, it’s pretty clear that Labour are still heading for a heavy defeat at the next GE. A reduced majority in a safe seat doesn’t really change a great deal about Labour’s current position
107.”I think that Lindsay Roy was underrated by a lot of people”
I agree. I think that he came across in the Scottish media much better than was often portrayed on PB.com. He was more genuine, and allowed his natural charactor to come through, especially in the last couple of weeks.
I posted this last night, and I think it still holds true.
“Basically the severe economic news has turned things upside down since Glasgow East, and the fall out will be anyone’s guess. I have not got the same feeling about this by election watching the news reports etc that I did during the summer with Glasgow East.
Something has changed, either the SNP honeymoon has finally peaked, or Brown is really bringing the core vote home as the recent polling figures have been indicating. I really would not like to call it, and the late Labour admission that its lost by about 1000/1500 compared to the SNP’s hopeful rather than triumphant noises means that even they are not sure.”
Everything was pointing to an SNP win, but it just didn’t feel right to me and we stuck with the Labour bet we made.
And when I saw Sarah and Gordon Brown visible campaigning in this by election I knew that it was not going to be the push over previously thought.
I smelt a very large rat with the Labour media spin operation over the last 48 hours too.
Some anecdotal evidence I have been getting from relatives down in the Central belt indicated to me that the SNP honeymoon had peaked over the summer. I have said this before, they have not been so sure footed in the media recently. Add in the economic tsunami, and the fact that it will be managed from Westminster as we draw neared to a Tory vs Labour fight in the next GE. It focuses the voters minds in a different way than it did last year, or even in the summer with Glenrothes.
There is not a groundswell for independence right now, and some of those tactical voters last year don’t seem to think that they have the luxury of voting SNP anymore.
At the end of the day, its the economy stupid, and Labour’s core vote is returning in its heartlands as Mike Smithson noted in recent polling trends.
And, the SNP needed that Labour core vote rather than a few Libdems or Tories tactical votes to win.
121.”It would help Cameron as UK PM if SNP do badly.”
Absolutely on the money Ted, if the SNP and the Libdems fall back in key constituencies that will really help the Tories.
Hyperbole, thy name is GIN.
I’ve long thought that Scots in general are far more comfortable voting SNP when they’re sure it won’t hurt Labour against the Tories - as in the last Scottish parliament elections - but rally behind Labour when the alternative means helping the Tories at Westminster. However much Salmond gets the Scottish people to like him, it’ll never be as strong as their hatred for the Tories.
Thanks for the tip when they were 3-1 Mike!
Should have made it clearer about it being in a TORY stronghold.
Apologies, lack of sleep and too much alcohol. And anticipation of my Betfair account getting a much needed boost
149.Wrong about the Tories there Nick.
Anybody know when the autumn budget statment is supposed to be?
Brown would be a fool not to Bank this Credit in an early General Election - Brown should go to the palace without delay. He should parogue parliament and have a long campaign like the 1997 one!
142. Ahem. Talking of predictions:
“Labour to win by…. 792.
by seanT November 6th, 2008 at 9:55 pm”
If only I had the nads to bet, I’d be a godzillionaire.
149. Well yes, NickP. But you said yourself two days ago that a result here wouldn’t particularly matter either way! - and would soon get swept away by the media script.
You weren’t… spinning, were you?
FWIW I will be honest and say I think this does matter. It assists your bounce thingy, and will improve your morale. Which is important. But in the wider scheme of things, and facing the severest slowdown in half a century.. who knows.
We are all in uncharted waters. Only one thing’s for sure: Scottish independence is *finis*.
An an SNP supporter what is disappointing is not so much the result, but Alex Salmond’s prediction & assertion yesterday that SNP would win. This was a bit of a tactical blunder.
As Sally states:-
“The fact is that with the majority, the location, the PM’s position next door, recent coverage, an SNP incumbent Government locally and in Scotland and a very local campaign - it was a huge ask for the SNP.”
I agree with this. And as Red Meteor at 132 says, it seems that this tidal wave was too much for the SNP. The campaign by the SNP was very well run, so I though the SNP might sneak it, but there wasnt the same movement as with Glasgow East….
Salmond has made a tactical blunder though.
164 I think it needs to be a Wednesday between now and 6 Dec.
159. Oh no, I totally agree. I’d still be forecasting a Tory majority of 50-80 at the GE. But it may just mean that it’s at the lower end of that scale. Anyway cheers all, off to bed.
This should give the Conservatives a boost against the SNP in Perth, Argyll, Stirling and Edinbrugh SW.
SNP are going to be stunned by this failure.
GOOD NEWS SNP is finished!!!!!
Scotland = England’s colony KNOW YOUR PLACE SCOTLAND!!!!!!!!
161. In what way is my post hyperbole? I believe I’m being very realistic here. As much as we might want this not to be true, this IS a stunning result for Brown and Labour.
162 - Stronghold or not, your alcohol hazed recall was still wrong, I’m afraid! Last tory by election hold was Hague in ‘89, helped by a split SDP/Liberal vote. We all know what happened in ‘92!
Complete humiliation for the SNP Tory alliance if the result is as predicted (and associated bloggers). I asked if anyone would notice this result last week when it seemed Labour would lose and I was told it would be huge!
So be it!
I commented this morning that I had a horrible feeling Labour would win, but it’s been tempered somewhat by my putting what was left in my Betfair account on a Labour win at 3/1.
173 nothing to do with tories SPANNER
Roger = ***t.
173. Yes, Do you think that Brown should ride this victory and call an immediate general election?
172 - well, I stand corrected then.
Didn’t the Tories win Beckenham in a by-election after 1997? Must be getting confused with that
173.Err, Roger, you don’t follow Holyrood politics too closely do you?
Very impressed with Jim Murphy who is making a real impact and impressive as well as combative and fluent. Can anyone really remember the name of the guy he replaced. Murphy appears more of a street fighter who is more than a match for the arrogant and pompous Alex Salmond. Game on me thinks!
175 PUT THE RATES UP TO 10% AND LET THE FAILURES LOSE THEIR HOUSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
157. “I must say the Labour lot don’t look very cheery” - I think that’s what we call modesty, Martin
147, 148: thanks to Marcia and GIN for their generous comments.
155: that’s not the case - my Broxtowe party colleague who enjoyed last week so much that she went up to Glenrothes again is at the party right now, waiting for Lindsay to come and join them after result is declared. Though I have to say neither of us were confident that it would be a victory party!
149. Congrats Nick.
Are we all re-reading the Audacity of Hope to keep pace with changing times?
143 Its good but not superb.
This constituancy is about as untypical as it can get without it being Gordon’s. I am not trying to argue its not a positive but its a case of perspective.
However, I expect that the media will see it in simplistic narrative terms.
That bothers me. I can’t help a slight sense of satisfaction that their hiding it has backfired alittle.
I am pining my hopes on the message about Gordon’s mishandling of the economy getting through. My concern is that this result will push that off just as the story was turning against him.
However I suspect I am being alittle paranoid as most people will be more concerned about their finances that Glenrothes.
Bloody hell, they’ve done a great big exhibition stand for the backdrop on the stage for a one-off use. Those things aren’t cheap…
Alex Salmond has a long and gruesome record of arrogant and wrong forecasts:
- “1993 and Free”
- “Independence by 1997″
- “Atlantic Arc of Prosperity”
- His statement in August this year that the Royal Bank of Scotland would return to strong profitability soon!
- Glenrothes
176- The tories won uxbridge after 97. But winning a safe seat in a by election opposition is usually a bit less of a challenge, though Jim Sillars can point out otherwise!
Willie Rennie still harking back two years to Lib Dem past victories - its two years now, the Lib Dems are being squeezed out.
176. Eddisbury and a west London seat (Bloke with a beard is the MP) were also Tory holds in that parliament.
I’ve heard Alex Salmond has just woken up from dreaming about an SNP win!!
165.
I think the 1997 campaign was 7 weeks - that would mean an election on Christmas Day!
Decemeber 4th is probably achievable but surely nothing after that until February?
I actually think this is the SNP’s Hartlepool. Hartlepool was a by-election the Lib Dems should have won but didn’t due to an inspired, but highly negative campaign by Labour. I’m not convinced the Lib Dems have yet fully learnt the lessons of it - but they are definitely on their way.
The SNP however have never been that good at by-elections and seem to have reacted like a rabbit in the headlights of Labour’s onslought - that’s how it’s going to go and it’s time for the nats to grow up.
145 - The Guardian is reporting that “Brown may cut taxes to boost ailing economy”
Hmm, smell something here? A little pre election bribe? Where will he find the money? More borrowing?Still, we can always pay it back tomorrow.
Wow, this recession is really going to hurt when we get the final bill for Gordons reckless spending.
Congrats to labour. The recent poll boost for brown has come from the north not from England and I have bet accordingly. Another few bob in my back pocket this week, thank you PB.
167. Alright. So the government could have the report next Wednesday, in which they announce their plans for borrowing and also their intention to cut tax. They could say they want to secure a mandate for these policies, so the next day, Thursday 13th November, Brown visits the Queen and disolves Parliament, with an election held on either December 11th or 18th. Could that actually happen?
WOW! Huge Labour win!!!
There was Bromley in 2006, Kensington and Chelsea in 1999, Eddisbury in 1999, and Uxbridge in ‘97, as well as Beckenham.
Crewe was the first Tory GAIN since 1982, not the first Tory win.
Labour 19,946
SNP 13,209
SSP 212
Conservative 1,381
Solidarity 87
SCUP 296
Lib Dem 947
UIP 117
181 N1 nick your first bit of good news since 1997!!!!!!!!!!!!!
185 LOL
Lets ban SNP now and restore Scotland to Westminster control (preferably without any representation)!
Scotland = peasants!!!!!!!!!!
135 Very poor analogy. Ignores the history of UK by-elections completely. In the first 2 terms of this Labour Government it was typical for seats to be held with massively reduced majorities, but even holding by a couple of thousand was a precursor to a large majority at a General Election, never mind a majority pf 6500 or so!!! The fact that there is no great groundswell against the party indicates that there is now everything to play for at the next General Election too.
Nice
183- Since nobody was talking about Glenrothes up til now (see previous thread’s references to news program content), why would the morning buzz around the water coolers suddenly be about it?
188 - sounds like Uxbridge then (re: bloke with beard)
Famous for Billy Hague standing in front of a pub called the Turning Point afterwards, as he led the Tories to a rousing 1 seat gain at the next election
Insta-swing:
Lab to SNP: 5.24%
LD to SNP: 11.48%
C to SNP: 8.04%
C to Lab: 2.80%
LD to Lab: 6.24%
LD to C: 3.43%
Lab majority 18.6%, 5% swing to SNP
wtf?
185 If Rab C.Nesbitt ( a truly maginficent programme in my humble opinion) is ever revived,maybe Alex would play Rab!
197 Ha Ha. Salmond is kippered.
Uh oh, Cons and LDs lose their deposits
147.”132 - over 4 decades I have seen worse results than this. It’s Labour’s night and we have to congratulate them. Most people seem to have mis-read this one. I was never confident at all, I just couldn’t put my finger on it. Something was just missing.”
Marcia, I felt exactly the same. I looked forward to your regular reports from the campaign trail, this by election just did not have the same feel as Glasgow East. Interesting to note that Labour have done badly when they rushed to call a by election this year, but by delaying this one and then really putting the effort in on the ground has paid off as the worsening economic picture unfolded.
200 LOL gabble thanks for coming back. C**t
201 well done Obama
Majority 6737
Labour actually increased their vote from 2005 by 551 votes - the loss of majority is because other parties lost votes to the SNP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Another 4th place for the LibDems. Where’s Rennard when you need him?
Didn’t even half the majority…
Very poor showing from SNP - much worse than I thought they would do. Do hope this convinces Gordon to go for a spring election.
195 - BTW Roger what do you think Angelina Jolies Oscar chances are for ‘The Changeling’ (if it’s entered)?
You know, for a teacher, Mr Roy doesn’t seem too confident in public speaking.
Incredibly good result for Labour. 5% swing away nationally would lead to a hung parliament. Call an election tommorrow Gordon!
211 brilliant morus.
SNP = 0 seats 2010. As i have said since 2005, anyone who thought snp would increase their westminster mps in 2010 = #.
ave it = no 1 UK pollster (not necessarily usa)
Very good Labour result and well done to them.They must have worked very hard indeed… Nice to see the SNP on the backfoot now,very interesting. Liberal Democrats will be very happy I would think to see the SNP on the slide.
If i were Brown I would seriously go to the Palace ASAP.
Very interesting result! Well done Labour.
wheres jack w the ’scot’ when you need him?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA!
208 We can afford it
217 er - this swing was to the SNP
Really remarkable - what was the last time that the candidate for a governing party increased the absolute number of votes in a by-election? I can’t remember one.
Changes
Lab +3
SNP +13
Con -3
LibDem -10
220 but rates should go up to 50% first to punish scum borrowers who have borrowed too much
Then campaign on a ‘no handouts to unmarried mothers’ policy!
King Gordon IV in 2009!
225 yes Nick total nailed on hold Broxtowe!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHA etc
I got Labour at nearly 3’s earlier in the week on Betfair but resigned myself to losing some Obama profit. Wasn’t expecting this, anyone get them for the 4.5 I saw earlier?
Labour increased votes, and increased vote share by 3%.
SNP actually did very well to take so many votes, when the Labour vote was so solid, though they will be disappointed with failing to win. The SNP have marched into Lib Dem and Tory territory.
Tories were squeezed, Lib Dems crushed. Labour flying.
225. Do you think the PM should call an election ASAP and use his credit?
BBC have the swing away as 8.16%? How do they calculate this?
Don’t you just love how the BBC can’t work out swing - they’re saying it’s 8%; it would be if Labour was DOWN 3%. In fact, the swing’s 5%.
Tories lost their deposit too…
re 225 Curtice is saying Perth & Kinross in the 80s
BBC said swing was 8%. Where did that come from?
216, Perhaps Mr Roy is more confident talking to pupils in a class, however, that is why Mr Roy will make an excellent MP. He aint a politician, he is of the real world and I understand he has an impressive record in education and been a brilliant head teacher. Well Done!!
Absolutely Nick - but it may show how poor the Glenrothes CLP were in getting their vote out in 05. Seats as safe as this often see situations like this. With a better Labour campaign, more Labour supporters were motivated to vote.
217 swing from Con to Lab of 2.8%…
Government wins by-election with increased vote? Half way through a third term? Never, surely?
What a result! I really can’t believe it!
BBC get swing wrong - they say it’s 8%.
They’ve gone (13 + 3)/2 = 8.
Unbelievable - BBC can’t even manage the Maths that you would expect at a Primary School.
This squares very interestingly with the collapse in support for “others” recorded in recent polls: the SNP are seriously falling back, as independence withers on the vine. I wonder if much of the Labour bounce has come from Scots (and maybe some Welsh etc) returning to the socialist fold.
What does that mean for a G/E? Labour must have a decent chance of securing a hung parliament. Still can’t see them winning again.
Initial thoughts:
1: Good result for Labour, although any swing against them in a safe seat is not so good.
2: Presumably one of the few places where the Gordon Brown factor actually does work
3: SNP clearly got too cocky for their own good and got a Glasgow Kiss for their troubles. A sting but not a massive blow, and will force a rethink.
4: Tories and Lib Dems. Who cares?
5: Probably confirming that Labour’s slight poll boosts recently will come in safe seats anyway. This isn’t as significant as a marginal, especially one in England.
6: Speaking of England, this will register as much with the average English voter as the typical PMQs. As in, not a lot.
7: Brown will still be very foolish to call an election.
235 cant be bothered in scotland - after we win we will take away their franchise (ooops sssshhhhhh)
Total turnout was down under 500 from 2005.
233 Must have been a Lib Dem doing the maths…
Well done everyone who backed Labour at ladbrokes. Winnings available now.
Hats off to the 2 (two) punters who got the tricast correct. I, like many others, got this whole event completely wrong, but a combination of a lot of people prepared to back the Nats at short prices today and a great result on the tricast should probably be enough to save my job.
If Brown does call an election we could be faced with the prospect of Labour doing exceptionally well in Scotland and the Tories doing exceptionally well in the south. That will leave The Midlands and Northern England holding the key to who wins the election.
Majority was almost exactly halved - 6737 from 13507 (down 6770).
228- Can a new version of the Bible according to Gordon be far off?
BRILLIANT - next election Lab 65 Scotland Con 500 England
All nationalists and small parties are …..
Labour vote and share up!? I have had too much whisky celebrating Obama. And too little sleep.
good job this in online because I am speechless (for virtually the first time in 44 years!). What a week for progressives/centre left/what ever you want to call us.
236: Perth & Kinross can’t be an earlier example of a governing party improving its vote in a by-election. The seat was created in 1983 and held by the Tories without by-elections till they lost it to the SNP in a 1995 by-election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_Kinross_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
re 249 shadsy well done - quicker than Betfair
OBAMA Gain SNP
Well done Labour. And this is the blogging equivalent of speaking through gritted teeth. A really, really good result. SNP has seen a serious momentum check today.
This will surely feed into the media narrative now, the Brown bounce is here to stay. I am actually less convinced than ever that the Tories are sailing into number 10; I was shot down on here ages ago for saying that they were sinking in the economic crisis for having no alternative plan, but apolitical people I’m speaking to are now saying this to me, and I now believe that Cameron could win the next election, and Osborne could lose it.
250 Just as the failing economy hits industry in the Midlands. Brown would be bonkers to do it.
252. The Lord Our Gord.
215. Edp. I missed it at Cannes and it hasn’t arrived here yet but it should in the next couple of weeks so I’ll let you know.
Have you seen it yet?
re 255 he had a previous example in 1978, but can’t remember where.
First Con-Lab swing since Beckenham and Winchester 20/11/1997…
Is Glenrothes Gordon’s Hull North (1966) ?
Brown should call an election!
245. I’m not sure I agree with point 7. Brown should probably go for it by virtue of the fact that it may not ever get better for him than this. I admit, I’d still fancy a Tory victory, but clearly Brown is having a revival and if he hangs on until June 3rd 2009, there no guarantee it won’t melt away into the recession anger. Why not go for it now? What does Brown have to lose?
Comparing the results with incumbent Governments is somewhat misleading.
Who is the incumbent Government in Scotland?
Labour = UK
SNP = Scotland + local.
We are in relatively new territory here.
Stunningly good result. Way, way, way beyond what _anyone_ I’ve spoken to in Labour expected. fantasitc job by the camapign team.
I rather hope the Labour party has learnt its lesson when it comes to stoking election speculation.
Well done Lindsay Roy, and well done Labour.
Very much mixed feelings for me on this one; glad to see Salmond and the SNP fail spectacularly, but a big shame that Labour had to be the beneficiaries. The media narrative’s in for the long haul, I think - and it’ll almost certainly reach the point of becoming self-sustaining.
re 267 Labour stop spinning????
You’re surely now completely taking the piss.
Now throw this into the mix:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/georgeosborne/3392981/Support-for-George-Osborne-collapses.html
I should ditch Osborne if I were Cameron and use Osbornes talents elsewhere. GO has consistently failed to nail Labour on the economy.
261 Yes. Really impressed by her, and the film overall. Eastwood still has it as a director. I’ll be interested to read what you think as pb.com’s Oscar tipster.
Spin spin spin away sally.
You have zero chance of spinning this down.
There is no way of seeing this as anything other than a huge boost for Brown, who had put his reputation on the line by camapigning in the seat.
Major result for labour with a 6000 majority.
Brown is clearly back in the hunt for a general election win.
After Cameron last autumn and Brown this autumn, which political figure will have their politcal career unexpectedly resucsitated next Autumn? Tommy Sheridan?
This is really quite a remarkable result, when did Governments in mid term win byelections!! With Obamamania sweeping the world we do live in interesting and exciting times!!
Here is my prediction.
Much to the dismay of Osborne and Cameron the media narrative will now change again - but not in their favour.
1) We will start getting comparisons with thatcher (who came back from the depths of political oblivion in 81).
2) We will start getting a lot of talk about a crisis in conservatism.
3) Osborne will be moved.
A bit depressing but being Scottish is like that. There is nothing to be extrapolated from this result except from the fact that some Scots need to be obedient. When Labour voters realise that the English will not vote for a Scottish PM the union is over. That might not be good news for Labour careerists but for Scots it will increasingly be reality.. Slainte!
269. No, i just think we should spin (ahem, I mean “talk to the media about”, of course) about more constructive things!
re 274 Well Labour from 1997 to 2008 for one
258. Agreed. Osborne just looked a knob on the TV today. He simply doesn’t look “right” for a major recession - he’s too young and too posh and too doughy and too chinless. I’m sure he’s smart and he’ll be a great frontline player one day - but not yet.
You can get away with a Cabinet of upper class twits when all people are worried about is the cost of organic rocket, but when people are scared of losing homes, jobs, livelihoods, you need sober gritty smart working class types.
GET F*CKING DAVIS BACK IN YOU TORY HALFWITS.
The Conservatives are just hoping that the recession will make people hate the government. Eventually, the voters probably will hate the government. But, right now, a lot of people are just feeling fear.
And scared people want tough or reassuring types in government, not trustafarian choirboys.
Some political realism from the Times
‘Although Labour was jubilant about the result, ministers accept that holding a usually safe Scottish seat is hardly a sign that they are on the way to a fourth term.
Labour remains solidly behind in the national polls but ministers are braced for further unpopularity as the recession leads to rising unemployment and more home repossessions.’
271. Did you see it in the UK?
Smaller swing against Labour than in Ealing Southall.
According to wiki first time governing party has increased its % of the vote since Beaconsfield 1982 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaconsfield_by-election,_1982
And bigger than then
First increase in share of the vote for a governing party since Beckenham 1997, and in a seat where the government was the incumbent since Beaconsfield 1982…
Stunningly good result for Labour…
270. Cameron needs to swap Osborne with Hague and bring bavk David Davis. If I’m right and the marginals in the Midlands and Northern England will decide this election, Cameron will need a couple of big hitters to be able to appeal to people north of Northampton.
274. Richmond ‘89, Epping Forest ‘88 for Thatcher’s third term.
Betfair still not settled, not the EC market either.
284. And Kensington in ‘88.
As far as the GE concerned, the result means nothing.
So Livingston & Ochil to the SNP in 2010. Come on you yellows.
278. Nonsense! This is what Tories should be like. No chance of him eating peas with his knife……
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/04_01/bullindonDM_800×484.jpg
283. Cameron cannot get rid of Osborne. It would be like sacking himself.
Forecast: polls to narrow to Con 38, Lab 33…
278. That’s precisly why the LD’s are failing at the moment as well!
I still think Cameron is a genuine boon for the tories but Osborne and Clegg (for LD’s) - Just don’t cut it.
I do think the Tories need to Bring back DD, they also need Hague as Shadow Chancellour IMO! The Tories need a more robust team - they seem to think that things will come to them: They are wrong - You have to go out and hunt and kill!
266.”We are in relatively new territory here.”
Totally agree SallyC, just not surprised. Tear up the 2005 GE results, tear up the 2007 Holyrood/WA results, add in an economic tsunami and a rejuvenated Conservative party with a real chance of winning a GE. Result, higher turnout and a polarisation between Labour and the Tories squeezing the other parties.
275. Spinning? You too mate.
But I accept it may have an effect on the narrative. Let’s see.
I agree with the guy on the BBC who says that there is a new system of government in Scotland which is not just two but three tiered. And its a system which is alien to the rest of the UK.
I agree Martin, 270, Osborne is only Shadow Chancellor due to his close friendship with David Cameron. Osborne has proved to be a major embarrasment not only due to his penchant for russian billionaires and the high life. He has been seen to be all over the place on the economy and has not come up with any credible alternative to the Government.
289. Every time i see that picture I wonder what David Coulthard was in the Bullingdon club (between 7 and
and the chap behind him appears to be a young Leon Trotsky.
292. But apparently Hague really doesn’t want the Shadow Chancellorship (and who can blame him).
Curtis: Labour cannot campaign as the opposition to the Conservatives in a national UK election.
Spreadfair Labour buy has hardly moved from a couple of days ago if I’ve remembered correctly (243 then, 246 now)
A thought for those who bet: possibly worth selling the SNP on Spreadfair. They’re currently on 10/13, i.e. you can sell them at 10 (2005 result 6) and gain if they don’t win more than 3 seats. A look at the Tory and Labour figures may be worthwhile too, as well as the Brown Weeks market (weeks to the next election) - there certainly won’t be an instant election, but a spring 2009 one is now worth discussing, and the Spreadfair price assumes nothing before next November.
283.”270. Cameron needs to swap Osborne with Hague and bring bavk David Davis.”
No, no, no! Osborne is the most politically astute politician, head and shoulders above both Hague and Davis. He and Cameron are a team, and they march to their own agenda rather than that of the media, particularly the right leaning crowd. That is one of their most important qualities, add in some pretty rock solid loyalty and unity within the Westminster party and you have the magic ingredient missing for the last 18 years.
297. Surprisingly perceptive comment
“Forecast: polls to narrow to Con 38, Lab 33″
Well, if RodCrosby says so…
Any news of Obama cancelling his presidency on account of not being eligible?
ChristinaD. I’m in Aberdeen next week. What’s the weather like?
299 - there is a huge spread on the Brown Weeks market though which would make me cautious about it’s liquidity
270.Martin, that’s a ConHom poll!
A few days ago Iain Martin wrote something similar on the Three Line Whip, it flew entirely in the face of the report from another well respected journalist who was less inclined to be Tory leaning.
I agree that Cameron will hold his nerve with Osborne. The pre budget report coming up is going to be a big one - reaction of the market and on Sterling will be telling.
292.
‘but Osborne and Clegg just don’t cut it’
Correct and you could add Milliband as well.
It’s a great result for Labour and Brown in particular. One thing though could be significant - nobody here (or elsewhere) was predicting anything like this. Maybe Glenrothes might be the one place totally different to elsewhere?
300. I happen to agree that Cameron will have to keep Osborne. He has no other choice. That doesn’t mean good news for him, though.
If Osborne becoms a millstone around his neck, internally or externally, it spells trouble. How long until some disgruntled shadow cabinet minister decides to brief against Osborne? Not long, I suspect.
Its obviously been a very local campaign based on the local [not even Scottish national] issues.
Curtis again : both parties played as the oppostion party.
BBC: Labour campaign was based on fear relating to the most vulnerable.
263.
Is Glenrothes the equivalent of Hull North in 1966?
No, but it could be the equivalent of Darlington in 1983.
Well done Labour, a remarkable result.
Ave It, you really don’t like the SNP do you?!
Well done to Phi’s politico’s too.
It’s Curtice not Curtis.
299. What if hanging on until spring sees the Bounce vanish as quickly as it arrived Nick? People will be feeling the recession much more by May/June than they are right now (as bad as things are) Surely theres a chance this is the best things will ever get for Brown? He can’t afford to delay and miss his opportunity again.
300. That’s how Osborne may look to you insiders, but I’m sorry he just doesn’t play well on TV, not in a major recession.
No one is telling Cameron to dump his boyfriend, just move him to Party Chairman or whatever - and get a more credible Shadow Chancellor quickly. He can elevate Osborne later, ONCE THE TORIES WIN THE G/E.
Trust me on this. I called the by-election right. I predicted an Obama win even when McCain was romping away. I am a political guru of the first water.
Shift Osborne and get Davis in. Do it sooner rather than later.
Curtis being surprisingly sensible. He seems to have tempered his earlier enthusiasm. I think its because he is surrounded by people who understand the campaign and the political system.
303.Roger, its horrible. Typical dreekit weather for this time of year, walking the dog is not a pleasure, but a necessity.
That said, be careful if you are driving. Over the last few years we have had the milder wetter weather during the day, this is followed by a sudden dramatic drop in temperature in the evening making the roads treacherous and black ice prevalent.
Two of the scariest journeys I have had on the Scottish roads have been in the last couple of years. Two years ago, Fitaloon and I had to drive for nearly ten miles on basically ice after the weather changed dramatically without warning. It was chaos, and the country roads were strewn with cars in fields.
305. Sure, but i think Osborne has failed to make an impact in the recession!
Actually: If Cameron wants an interesting Shadow C of E I would say Chris Grayling! He is very good on TV IMO and good at attack! That’s what you need in a recession Osborne I am afraid is not the right temperament or skill set. It has to be Grayling or Hague!
Sorry CURTICE!
I don’t think theres any rule that says Osborne is unmoveable or that it would damage Cameron to swap him with Hague. Nobody is indespensible and nobody must be allowed to get in the way of the project. If Osborne is not plausible in these times of recession, then he should be moved.
314. Davis is a lose cannon… can he be expected to ‘follow the leader’?
Cameron dumping Osborne as Shadow Chancellor would be portrayed as a panic move, probably accurately.
Message to Tories: DON’T PANIC.
310. Labour were the opposition in 1983, and their vote fell in Darlington.
Labour were the government in 1966, and their vote rose in Hull North.
…like Glenrothes…..
Well I certainly read this one wrong and am forced to lick my wounds once again.
I am very surprised by this result. The confidence of the SNP in this by election has proved particularly misguided. So what does it all mean? A remarkable victory for Brown and Labour that’s for sure. I would agree with shadsy that it must make an earlier General Election more likely.
It just seems obvious to me that Labour’s chances are likely to be better next year than 2010. Unlike the election that never was, if Brown goes next year he is not risking his whole Premiership. He will have served over 18 months and he will be risking one year for a much improved chance of a further 4-5 years. Holding on until 2010 will just look desperate. This could be Gordon’s 2nd chance to control his destiny. Will he take it?
317 I like Osborne, but I agree about Grayling.
Labour candidate not great TV!
266 Sally C
Quite. Labour fought the campaign on local issues taking a leaf from the Lib Dems. The SNP candidate was the leader of the council which had drastically increased charges for the disabled, an almighty home goal and Labour seized on it. They were effectively the opposition to the ruling party. You can’t relate this result to England.
306. I wonder if Brown might go for an early GE. But I also wonder if he might go for euro membership, using the recession as an excuse. He’d risk losing a lot of media support, but he’d split the Tories.
If there’s one thing the last few weeks must have taught Gordo, it’s that boldness pays off. He campaigned in Glenrothes, against superior wisdom, and it worked. He brought back Mandelson, astonishingly, and so far it has been arguably positive.
Expect surprises from now on. And on that bombshell, I’m riding the camel to sleepistan.
As I’ve said the worse the economic picture gets, the better for Labour….
Fear and Greed. Fear and Greed.
And the electorate chasing its losses…
316. ChristinaD: the country roads were strewn with cars in fields.
Reminds me of one of Murray Walker’s all time classic moments: “We’ve had cars going off left, right and centre”…
324. I like Osborne that’s why he needs moving!
Grayling is very good at taking on the government, presenting his message on the telly and has political weight.
Interestingly I always think Grayling has a passive resembalance to President Ford! Let’s hope Grayling hasn’t been playing American Football without a helmet!
GE timing. I don’t think Brown has any choice but to wait it out until Spring 2010, with possible exception of next autumn if economy goes less badly than expected. Cutting and running as the recession takes hold hardly fits with the narrative of seeing this through/no time for a novice. Why unnecessarily risk handing over o the novices at this most turbulent period.
Calling a GE wouldn’t look so clever in four weeks time, in my view, and would probably lead to hung Parliament with Brown taking the blame for adding political instability to the economic turmoil.
Trouble with Grayling is that nobody knows who he is. At this time you need a recognisable and trusted face. That really means William Hague. There is nobody else (assuming Ken Clarke can’t/won’t come back)
As for David Davis he is a lose cannon, no doubts about that, but I have a feeling he would tow the line, at least until the Tories have made it into government.
323 If it’s any consolation, I read it wrong too, StJohn. Although I won on the nite, it was only because I backed Labour as a hedge against a big sell position I am holding on the spreads. However….
I don’t read this as a big vote of confidence in GB. It seems to have been won on local issues. There will be a short term bounce in the polls, I expect, but mid to long term things still look bleak for him.
I don’t agree with Shadsy that this result makes an early election any more likely, although the odds may shorten, so perhaps some value-slealing opportunities will arise.
A 2010 election still looks nailed on, but the chances of a 2009 defenestration of The Dour One suddenly looks much less likely.
My wife groans when Osborne pops up on the news. He may be quite bright, who knows, but he has an absolutely dreadful image problem. Hague would be a sensible choice as replacement for the ineffectual Gideon.
“As for David Davis he is a lose cannon, no doubts about that, but I have a feeling he would tow the line, at least until the Tories have made it into government.”
The last thing Cameron wants is a problem Chancellor like Howe turned out to be, or Lawson, or Gordon himself.
Never too early to look ahead…
Bobby Jindal visiting Iowa
http://www.ksla.com/Global/story.asp?S=9202755
BY ELECTION
Times - second story
Telegraph - first story
Guardian - third story
Independent - no where
The Sun - can’t find it.
316. Many thanks for that Christina. I’ll watch out for it.
One can now safely assume that in 2010 the Iron Kilt will not descend across the Scottish border.
308.”If Osborne becoms a millstone around his neck, internally or externally, it spells trouble. How long until some disgruntled shadow cabinet minister decides to brief against Osborne? Not long, I suspect.”
Two points Hopi, first its definitely Labour’s strategy to go after Osborne because they rate him and see him going would be very good news for them. Basically there is no up side for the Tory if they get rid of their Shadow Chancellor at this time.
Secondly, Labour are underestimating the Conservative Shadow team, the usual headless chickens will cluck loudly to the usual journalists. Quite simple, the Tories have got the measure of this Labour government, but I still don’t think that Brown and his team of reformed Labour tribute spinners have got the measure of Cameron or Osborne. They are using the old tricks in a very different political era.
332. PtP. I’m kicking myself for not paying more attention tonight as I could probably have limited losses. Still, every defeat is a learning experience. We live to fight another day!
314.”Trust me on this. I called the by-election right. I predicted an Obama win even when McCain was romping away. I am a political guru of the first water.”
Sean, we will have to disagree. And I made some money on tonights result.
333. I agree totally. He is local to me. He has a huge ego and is totally self centred.
A time bomb. Those who press his case just don’t get it.
Does this mean the phi100 beat us?
321.”Cameron dumping Osborne as Shadow Chancellor would be portrayed as a panic move, probably accurately.
Message to Tories: DON’T PANIC.”
LS, agreed! Forget Osborne’s impact on the recession, moving him now would be politically stupid, why can’t some people see that?
343 Agreed. No need to panic, but we do quite a lot don’t we?
Oh, and Labour won!!! Labour won!!! Labour won!!!
Labour are capable of winning things!!!
Sorry to gloat but all the tories and snp have done their fair share over the last year and a half, so i deserve a turn.
336.Roger, have a nice trip, and don’t be surprised if there is snow too.
Winter is coming earlier and earlier these days.
Christina I suspect Brown and co do have the measure of Cameron and Osborne and they would be deighted for Gideon to be kept in place as Shadow Chancellor. I believe the grass roots are turning against Osborne, that can’t be good news surely.
345 Don’t apologise. You’re allowed
346. Yes you need to be a millionaire to be able to put the heating on!
338. Labour strategy is to go for Osborne because he’s the Shadow chancellor and the economy is the number one issue in the country.
As for undersestimating the shadow cabinet, i’m sure the members of it that Osborne described in such fulsome terms to Peter Mandelson know exactly who they are and are aching to repay the compliment! I note in particular this story quoting a “Tory frontbencher” briefing against osborne, and later an on the record quote from liam Fox attaacking Brown, an extra-ordinary co-incidence…
http://tinyurl.com/6kteyt
347. Thanks Sally.
Obama and Glenrothes, it’s been a good week for left-of-centre politics.
346. “Winter is coming earlier and earlier these days.”
Really? I thought it was coming later and later… if at all. At least here in West Yorkshire anyway.
346. ChristinaD: Winter is coming earlier and earlier these days.
Global warming.
347 Sally, if I ever move to Scotland, I promise to vote at least once for the SNP, just as a sign of admiration and respect for your good humour and grace in defeat.
344.SallyC, after watching the Tory party for many years, its what some do far too often. The biggest improvement since Cameron and Osborne arrived has been the enthusiasm, steely determination, and the comfortable nature of their relationship which recognises their combined qualities without the problems that dominated Blair and Brown’s relationship.
Brown was shafted by Blair and Mandelson because he was not up to the job back when John Smith died, the fact he did not challenge Blair speaks volumes. He wasn’t leadership material then, and he is not PM material now.
Thank you. I think? But are you labouring under the impression I am SNP?
352.I was not going to mention that, but I suspect that it is….
353:
Have I missed something? I always thought Sally C was a Tory!
355 Yes. Apologies.
It’s late, and it’s been a long week.
I’d better go to bed.
354. The guys at the top are certainly cooler and calmer than most of the people on Tory home.
358 No problem. It feels like a defeat - on the ‘my enemies enemy is my friend’ basis.
A Yorkshire Tory who should be in bed!
Night all.
349. For all the infighting would any of them really want to give Mandelson the satisfaction of taking down one of their own?
351.John, every thing is back to front weather wise up here. It certainly means that I tend to scroll past the usual suspects arguing over the impact of climate change on here, I am living it!
By the way, Yorkshire is one of my favourite places in the UK. Maybe its because it reminds of the highlands in some way.
This byelection result reminds me very much of the Garscadden byelection of March 1978 when Donald Dewar held the seat for Labour much more comfortably than had been expected. Prior to that , it had become the conventional wisdom over a period of 3 years that the SNP were destined to make big gains at the next General Election - building on the 11 won in October 1974. After Garscadden it was downhill all the way for them , and at the 1979 Election they ended up losing 9 of their 11 seats! Is history about to repeat itself in Scotland?
349.Hopi, I was the one on here that knew immediately that it was Osborne who was the Senior Tory that had been in contact with Mandelson when the original Time’s story broke. There is more to come on this story yet….Mandy is back and spinning away, but the list of Tories with more of a problem with him outweighs any problems they might have with Osborne.
359.”354. The guys at the top are certainly cooler and calmer than most of the people on Tory home.”
Most definitely! But I don’t think that some of the regulars on ConHom have worked out that it might be the main reason that we have maintained a poll lead for so long this year.
361.”349. For all the infighting would any of them really want to give Mandelson the satisfaction of taking down one of their own?”
Diane, you are correct in that assessment, but some in the media and the Labour party can’t see it.
It was silly of the SNP to keep ramping this, false Bravado will never win an election. Labour went for uber spinning this time around and it is a another sign that Campbell is back controlling the press. Nick Palmer’s “anger” at the Labour by-election machine was absolutely priceless, taking one for the team eh nick.
As for the national picture what was going to be a nonstory if the SNP had won (especially on BBC Breakfast, and Labour’s very own GMTV, along of course with Labour loving Eamon on Sky) now becomes a story as Labour have won but if we are honest only because the media are currently cheerleading for labour, so it will undoubtedly be portrayed as Labour comfortably hold on to seat rather than Labour lose a third of their majority. There may be Pressure on the Tories more perhaps because of the interest rate cut and I agree that will probably see a reduction in the Tory lead. I get the feeling though that the new year is unfortunately going to be really brutal for people on the ground with jobs going left, right and centre (and I am seeing less and less job vacancies in recruitment agencies probably down 80% on a year ago) and I just don’t think they will vote for more of Brown whilst 75% of them feel he is a major cause of this deep and painful recession, and much as he likes to keep blaming America it is clearly not working.
373 You are the one doing the spinning! Labour “lose a third of it’s majority” is a complete twist of the facts. Labour share of the vote went UP. Labour actual vote went UP. The majority decrease was caused entirely by the SNP squeezing the minor parties!
373.”Labour went for uber spinning this time around and it is a another sign that Campbell is back controlling the press. Nick Palmer’s “anger” at the Labour by-election machine was absolutely priceless, taking one for the team eh nick”
Thank god someone pointed that one out! I was tempted to put that one into my post about markers for Labour retaining the seat, but I bottled it!
374 look at the table at the top, Labour got a 11,000+ majority in 2005 and only have just under 7000 majority now. Over 30% less = fact. Regardless of whether actual votes went up the seat is now more marginal. I thought I was being quite generous with 30%.
376 actual majority 10,664 which is not 11,000+ admittedly.
375 I can’t claim clairvoyance, at the time I even I thought Nick was genuine but it plays nicely into expectation management and “Shock win” narrative.
377.Nick votes against the government when he is under attack for doing the opposite in his own constituency. And when I read his frank report on the Glenrothes by election, combined with Benedict Brogan’s two very different Labour briefings, well I knew that I was going to make some money tonight.