Is it now “Game On” for the general election?
November 7th, 2008
A day for humble pie from punters?
There’s little doubt that Labour’s successful defence overnight of Glenrothes, and by such a margin, is a sensational result that has the potential to change the political landscape. It is also one in the eye for punters who got this terribly wrong.
My initial call on this, just ten days ago, was to back Labour at prices that were then about 7/4. The opinion polls in Scotland were running in the party’s favour and I had been impressed by the way the party had managed to focus down onto one decision of the SNP controlled council and make this the big issue.
The row over increases in charges for home carers was a brilliant one for Labour to exploit and they pulled it off magnificently. If only I had stuck with my initial judgement. Alas I shifted my position four days ago after getting reports of the apparent massive effort that the SNP had put into the seat over last weekend.
The lesson for the future is that in contests like this MESSAGE MATTERS MOST - in that famous phrase from the Australian election guru, Lynton Crosby, who ran Boris’s campaign earlier in the year. Labour had a powerful message that they were getting across irrespective of how many SNP volunteers there were.
There’s another factor as well - by not calling the by election immediately Labour gave themselves the chance to prepare and build up an effective organisation. Maybe Glenrothes marks the end of the “quickie by election”.
So where are we now? There’s little doubt that this will give a real boost to Labour and will enhance even more Gordon Brown’s growing confidence. His personal involvement in this has proved to be a master-stroke.
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Labour will now start to believe that it can hold on at the general election and confidence is everything. The only caveat is that Glenrothes was north of the border where the Tories are irrelevant.
My Labour buy and Tory sell positions on the general election spread markets look quite good and I have placed further bets overnight.
On this election I haven’t come out too badly after backing Labour at good prices in the earlier stage.
PLEASE NOTE: I’m off on a short break to France to spend some of my Obama profits and my intention is not even to look at PB until next Monday evening. There’s another thread set up to be published after lunch but then you are in the capable hands of Paul Maggs and Morus.
Mike Smithson
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Good morning. Nice start to Gordon’s 500th day as Prime Minister.
Only another 573 to go (at most).
‘Citing ! I find I am best buyer of the Tories at 332.5 and the SNP at 10.0.
For anyone wishing to Sell on Spreadfair (Mike ?)those prices may not last the night.
That was a remarkable result for Labour and maybe not merely a local victory.
Big Daddy was right : Brown hold on to this one.
Although there will be a collective sigh of relief in No. 10, I wonder whether, in retrospect, some unfortunate and unwelcome precedents have been set.
In the event of Labour having to defend another by election in 2009, what message will the electors receive if Sarah Brown doesn’t pay at least seven campaigning visits to the constituency and the Prime Minister doesn’t turn up at least twice?
Gabble Check List for Friday, November 07, 2008
Gordon Brown’s 500th day as Prime Minister. (during which time the FTSE 100 has fallen 2,255 points - more than Blair managed to add in ten long years)
But, just as you thought it safe to go back into the markets….
FTSE 100 opens at 4272.41
Optimistic milestones still to watch for:
4455.60 - up 183.19 (4.29%) to return to 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 1113.49 (26.06%) to come out of current bear market
5479.26 - up 1206.85 (28.25%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
5683.81 - up 1411.40 (33.04%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
6197.94 - up 1925.53 (45.07%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 2057.66 (48.16%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2255.19 (52.78%) to return to Blair’s 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 2657.79 (62.21%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 812.41 (-19.02%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 985.41 (-23.06%) to return to Blair’s low on 12 Mar 03
2780.00 - down 1492.41 (-34.93%) to reach Madasafish’s low low
2144.30 - down 2128.11 (-49.81%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
The direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
Having read through the previous thread, I notice that several people were getting rather over-excited in contradicting each other hysterically and frantically with lists of Conservative by-election victories over the last 20 years. They seem to have completely missed the point of the original question, which was “When was the last Conservative seat held in a by-election before 1997?”, so the answer is Richmond (1989) - and was therefore not Beckenham or Uxbridge or Eddisbury or K&C or Br&Ch or Henley or C&N or H&H.
Well,Well,Well. I appreciate there are several local factors at work here but the result is just so out of line with Crewe, Glasgow East and even neighbouring Dumfermaline.
This is either a real freak result or something deeper is going on core Labour areas. I see Sky News is leading on what looks like a heavily spun exclusive about an Iraq Withdrawal. Todays interest rate cut, although technicaly not governmental , is good news.
Could Labour actually be beginning to cobble together a narrative? If cable repeated his famous and deadly Mr bean joke in the commons tommorrow would people laugh as loud ? would it resonate ?
I still don’t see how an incumbant party survives the kind of receson we have now entered, much less one with over 11 years on the clock already ut it will at least make politics a bit more interesting.
They much be kicking them selves now for schedulin it in the Obama after glow !
This is a remarkable result and far beyond anyone’s expectations. Labour managed to actually increase vote share which considering the UK is facing a major recession, is really very surprising. The so-called “Brown bounce” could previously be regarded as a bit of a media myth but today it is hard to argue that it does not have some basis in reality.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in the power of “narrative” - would the Labour vs. SNP results be replicated in a Labour vs. Tory matchup? Labour isn’t going to hold on just by beating the SNP alone.
I would go out on a limb and say that Sarah Brown is a greater electoral asset than Sarah Palin…
I don’t get it. Labour manage to hold onto one of their safest seats (10,000 majority in 2005), the constituency adjacent to the Labour leader’s seat, and this somehow suggests that Labour are going to win the next general election?
Would anyone be shocked if the Conservatives won a by-election for North-West Hampshire?
Losing a safe seat would have been significant. Not losing a safe seat is a non-disaster, not a triumph.
good result from Labour. Any chance of a GE?
Fantastic result for Labour, and glad I called their victory there. It always seemed implausible to me that Brown would go to the front unless Labour knew they had a real chance.
But, NO, there will NOT be a General Election before 2010. Get real.
Labour are very very much back in it. Westminster was right over the hacks and, yes, over pb.com. Bad night for some of the alleged experts here, and a time for humble pie!
Interestingly unexpected result. I think this probably confirms the polling that Labour have shored up core support but nothing more. The Lib Dems vote share cratered in this election though, and this is the second bye-election in Scotland that they have been overtaken for third by the Conservatives. That has to be worrying for them. As to what this means for the general election I think it is difficult to say. I think it finally puts the lie to the exuberant notion that the SNP are going to take vast numbers of seats in Scotland. I think whilst they will increase on their haul from last time there were some staggeringly over exuberant claims about having more seats than Labour. I don’t think that was ever likely and it is less likely now. Finally I think this election is yet more evidence that turnout is likely to increase at the next election. Yet again we have turnout up towards the level of the last general election and this in a by-election in Scotland in November.
11 Your hypothesis here speaks to the current weakness of the Lib Dems (NW Hants). Agree with your other comments, but there is little doubt in my mind that people are prepared to give GB the benefit of the doubt in what they see as troubled times. It should not and does not have any implications either on timing or result of the next GE.
Well, my comment on the Did MPs or pundits / punters get it right at Glenrothes? thread seems to have been true. The politicians did know better!
perhaps a bit less sniping at the PH100 now
be interested to hear Nick Palmer’s thoughts on GE chances. Heard fro m Labour sources that they wanted a GE in June to tie in with the locals; I know its illegal but regulations could be changed. These were English MPs in safe seats.
dave b, after GE and C&N it is a triumph - everythings relative
Fantastic job by Labour at managing expectations
Picking up the fire on Osborne, I have to say I think his image-profile amongst the masses is awful. Trouble is, I don’t think it stops there. Around the dinner table we were discussing Obama’s victory and how it marked a sea-change and there were very unfavourable comparisons with Cameron, which surprised me. ‘We don’t need a toff’ was one comment - from someone middle class and a natural Tory. I mention that because I am still not at all convinced that Cameron will cut the mustard with enough of the electorate. He is absolutely no Blair (whom I couldn’t stand but who clearly had that Obama rhetorical common-touch).
This really is a stunning result for Gordon Brown and Labour - absolutely no two ways about it.
Mike, and others, I think one lesson here is this: BROWN FARES BETTER IN A CRISIS SITUATION. Sorry to ’shout’, but I think that’s the narrative we should remember. When the chips are down enough people trust Brown, especially if we are dealing with economic problems that are demonstrably global. Cameron is too untried and untested and too much of a risk.
I suggested a few weeks back on here that ‘This is no time for a novice’ would come to be seen as the most important line since ‘you were the future once’, and I now think this is more than ever the case. That sentence summed up brilliantly the Brown bounce.
Richard, how is holding a safe seat a stunning result?
Losing a safe seat would have been significant. Not losing a safe seat is a non-disaster, not a triumph.
I have to concur.
No doubt Gordon and his band of merry Men & Women are not in straits as dire as they were. Impact on any general election? A few less Labour MPs will be on the job market.
20 and 21. Oh come come. For any Governing party mid-term, 18 months before they have to go to the country, to win a by-election would be impressive. To do so in the midst of an economic crisis, when the main opposition has predicted victory, and then to increase your share of the vote is absolutely stunning result. I think you know it deep down. Were the shoe on the other foot Tory supporters on here would be cockahoop.
This is a stunning result for Labour.
Yuck, double yuck.
GE 2009 ?
Richard, its a good result because expectations were so low. Also because both Lab and snp had poor canvas data and predicted a win for the snp.
Labour are having a bounce off their lows, but i suspect Gordon is far too frit to capitalise on it.
To answer the question, no. The Conservatives are still in the low 40s and Labour in the low 30s in most national opinion polls. And the picture in the marginals is even more favourable to the Tories. And the economy is going down the pan. And Gordon is still a nob.
In some ways this may be helpful to the Conservative’s quiet “Save The Gordon” campaign.
FANTASTIC WORK LABOUR.
What a turnaround since Glasgow East! The Candidate made a difference IMO and deserves a lot of credit for this.
Well they say you shouldn’t gloat, but f**k it I’m gonna gloat, as one of the few, who predicted a Labour hold, I’m gloating like f**king mad.
I was amazed at the actual maj. I thought Labour would just scrape it, by about 500 to a 1000.
Mike, I was surprised you changed your mind after talking to activists! It is a strange fact of human behaviour, that you can have a quite intelligent discussion about politics with someone, until they join a political party. Once someone joins a political party, they turn from rational human beings, into total idiots.
The reasons why the electorate stuck with Labour are pretty much along the lines I suggested before the actual election. Basically this is not a time too, ‘Rock the Boat’ a desire for stability.
p.s.
If some of the, ‘usual suspects’ do not post today, they are probably in some intensive care ward having the contents of their bathroom cabinets removed.
24. If I were Gordon I’d still hold on until 2010. There’s a good chance the economic situation will be starting to improve by then, and I think the momentum might be gradually moving Labour’s way.
A few weeks ago I suggested that we should wait until near the middle and end of November’s polls really to see how the narrative might be changing, and I still think that’s the case. If the Tories remain in the 40’s they won’t be too down, although I don’t think it’s enough to guarantee a victory. If Labour can still peg them back to single figure leads then they will be massively encouraged in the approach to the Christmas season.
27. lol - great post. I totally agree with you. I too thought Labour would hold it, though was surprised by the margin.
Oh, and didn’t we also have an attack on that opinion poll? It got it pretty much right I think.
Coldstone - What a pity to spoil an otherwise good post by using totally unnecessary foul language. Either get a vocabulary or post on Guido, please.
Gloat away, but don’t over do it. You might have to save some for the year ahead.
IT should be said, one of the usual Tory suspects did predict a 6000 majority. They got the party wrong, but let’s not split hairs.
Labour have reacted to the SNP and learnt how to beat them. They now have to learn the same trick against the new Tories.
I still say the candidate deserves a lot of credit here. a great choice.
30
There comes a time when profanity, (the laxative of the soul) is the only way to express yourself!
If Labour are polling low thirties but are pulling this sort of vote in safe seats, it suggests all they’ve done is shore up their core vote. Something the Tories did in 01 and 05 when we finished behind by a rather long way. Can’t help feeling it will lead to misplaced confidence.
Tories go third ahead of the Lib Dems. Awful news for Clegg.
Hear hear Coldstone. However, some of the usual suspects are already on here. I have always blamed / congratulated the Tory bloggers (ie “usual suspects” around here) for sticking to their narrative of “Gordon lost your pension, Gordon gave away the gold etc etc which finally got to the mainstream Tory media at the time of the “non-election”. Followed by all the other media. I think events are now biting back, and the Tory bloggers don’t like it! I am sure Richard is right that the zeitgeist is moving away from the Tories now. BUT - this is NOT a prediction for the next GE - which will still be in May 2010 unless a no confidence vote intervenes, and a lot of water to go under the bridge yet.
Those regulars around here know that I have been trying to extract an apology from sean (IQ 140) t for his unquestioning support for toryism and buccaneering laissez faire capitalism. For one so clever, he clearly has a mental block on this! It will give me great pleasure to see Tory poll ratings fall through the floor over the next 18 months, but it is bound to be gradual if it does happen.
But, as a Lib Dem, it is necessary to bring that party bak into the equation from a somewhat languishing position, and of course, along with the Tories, a lost deposit last night.
And a pity I didn’t put money on Labour to hold, as I did consider.
Alex Salmond, Sean Connery, Robert The Bruce.. your boys took one hell of a beating!!
SNP Backing @ 1.4 and below;
1.16 £47
1.17 £51
1.19 £60
1.20 £1,009
1.21 £132
1.22 £1,833
1.23 £6,633
1.24 £70
1.25 £370
1.26 £198
1.27 £238
1.28 £489
1.29 £367
1.30 £796
1.31 £282
1.32 £442
1.33 £799
1.34 £343
1.35 £1,306
1.36 £1,428
1.37 £482
1.38 £226
1.39 £722
1.40 £584
Thank you Mr Coral - the icing on the cake after Tuesday!
Murphy spinning furiously on BBC that the Tories are in trouble because of their vote in this by election. Mental.
John Curtice “A truly remarkable result” and “The best result for Labour since the early years of Tony Blair” - on R4 just now. So Tories please eat a bit of humble pie.
But in Scotland Labour are the opposition so the scenario is different from when they are up against the Tories in England
Was it the rate cut “wot won it”. Even tho’ it was not the govt that did it
Very good result for Labour, no doubt. Too early to say if it represents a serious worry for the Conservatives.
I think that this result represents the end of the SNP honeymoon, the point at which voters start to see look at them on the basis of their own record, and from now on their policies will be a lot more important to their electoral performance. That’s not to say it’s a dire result for them (their vote did go up 13% after all!), just that the political game in Scotland has changed.
Expecting another neg. day FTSE, gonna short the opening at the 4237 mark ish.
As for last night, when we have 2m on dole for Xmas and home repos going up every month then who gives a toss if Labour hold on to Browns home turf - big deal.
Football bets
Thinking about buy MU goal superiority over Arsenal, expect to rise on the run-in to match.
Guys, I had money on Labour and closed it down for a Labour “freebet” after consulting with the politicalbetting threads. What happened here was the phenomenon known as “groupthink”. It rears its ugly head quite often in specials markets.
For example, in the last 3 heavily discussed “Big Brother” shows, the punters favourite did not win, despite their being information to the contrary. Eg this year, Blind Scottish contestant “Mikey” losing to a 6-1 outsider in the final..
Forget media narrative: it’s the economy. Food and fuel prices coming down, along with interest rate cuts, leave voters with more money in their pockets at the end of the week.
I wonder, though, whether there is an additional factor in Scotland. Voters who blame the government have a choice of governments to blame.
42 Indeed. Tory groupthink is a well known effect on pb.com. The Tony Lit election was called for the Tories right up until the moment they lost it.
It underlines that pb.com needs its rich mix of Tory, Labour and LD posters. If one tribe gets too cocky it proves expensive.
42. Yes I do wish the more strident Tory supporters would tone it down sometimes and not ‘flay’ those who try and put a different narrative, but I actually think our genial host, whom I normally admire, has been getting much much too anti-Labour with his threads. He may not like me saying that, and I have pointed it out, but he has been allowing dislike of all things Brown to creep in. Pb.com needs level heads and sane voices, and most importantly it’s important to be gentle towards those who post alternative perspectives to the main ‘groupthink’ (as you put it).
By the way it is NOT the interest rate cut. Labour were moving well ahead before - as the opinion poll correctly spotted.
32 - I am neither in need of laxatives nor impressed by the results of yours.
I wonder if some of the daily mail crowd on here will redact some of the bile they poured on sarah brown during the campaign. Doubt it.
No this isn’t a game changer but boy is it impressive.
Formidable Broon and slimy Mandy what a tag team!
Wrong footed Jo public with “this problem came from America”
Seen as a knight in shining armour with his bank bail-outs.
That and the promise of lower IR to pacify the masses.
Now holding Glenrothes !
Anybody want to see him walk on water?
I think I am going to follow Mike (I am actually going to France on Sunday), Roger will be insufferable.
Is Harry Redknapp working part-time for Labour?
I think this result shows that Scotland is a foreign country of which we know little - far more than an SNP victory would have done.
52 Wishful thinking.
No Overall Majority at the next GE (aka the forgotten, unglamourous bet) - looks like value to me after Glenrothes at 2.7-1 on Betfair, available at 2.5-1 elsewhere. If nothing else, surely a good lay at some stage?
Where is Ave It this morning? Two reality checks in two days is too much perhaps. A very tidy little profit this morning having backed Labour @ 2.7 on betfair.
A very good result for Labour, which will cement Brown in the top job until the election. Yay!! Although hard to know whether it was the charm of Mr (or more realistically, of Mrs) Brown, the smugness of Mr Salmond, the weirdness of Planet Fife politics or the fearfulness of turning into Iceland which reduced this into a footnote in by-election history. Labour holds safe seat - probably why it only ranks the bottom story of the “other news” on the BBC website.
Oh - and the LibDems? Bag o’ shite… 13% beckons guys, 13%….
(And might I suggest: PBers should watch this place like a hawk when our esteemed host announces he is bunking off for a bit. Whenever he has an early night/nips off to France/has a McCavity moment at the dentists, the expected order of things seems to go awry….)
I have to eat a very large slice of humble pie, I was so confident I did not cover my bet , instead put more on the SNP, so expensive as well. I truly cannot believe Labour won it , their candidate was a bumbling fool, the country is trashed and still these idiots vote Labour. I await with pleasure when the dolts are forced of their incapacity benefit onto job seekers allowance they will regret it big time. As people have said I think that it means SNP will have no chance with an independence vote , it surely confirms that Scotland is never going to stand on its own feet. I despair as this means that we are likely to remain at the mercy of Labour in Scotland in future and that is a very depressing thought.
I took the Ladbroke odds of 7/2 with the Lab/SNP/Con line-up. I had only expected a small Labour majority and yesterday I started to regret making the bet. So this is a very good result for Labour considering the recent past.
It will be instructive how a young party like the SNP, used to success, deals with a set -back.
Where were the LibDems?
I still back the Tories for 2010 as I think they are winning the battle to set the long-term narrative. If the UK recession is worse than elsewhere then Cameron will have a strong case against Brown.
If the spreads really swing towards Labour, buy Tory.
North Carolina
North Carolina has been officially called for Obama yesterday…
Yet betfair has not settle the NC market yet…
Why the delay?
Gordon’s reputation rested on 3 massive foundations:
1. Independence of Bank of England
2. No boom and bust
3. Being photographed in floods while DC was abroad.
Yesterday one of these was demolished. The bizarre BoE panic reaction showed they knew no more about what was happening in the economy than say, the average Glenrothes voter. They had all the info months ago and they were wrong, wrong, wrong. They are a laughing stock and we are doomed.
Oh my. This is the first time that Labour have increased their share of the vote in any by-election since 1997 [Eddisbury, which was Tory] and the first time in a seat they held since 1996 [Hemsworth].
I’m sure some people will take comfort in the fact that it was the SNP who were the challengers, and point to the result as having the most significance for them. Yet Labour did increase their vote share. In a by-election. After 11 years of government. In the midst of an economic crisis. [None of this makes sense to me]
I’m clinging to the one certainty there is - that the Lib Dem vote is evaporating wherever they start in third.
That’s what you get for trusting nationalists. The lesson for Cameron: if you want a job done, you’ve got to do it yourself. Cambo, you and shoot an MP in a safe-ish Labour seat and for God’s sake WIN the by-election this time!
This is a massive victory for Labour because of the whole management of expectations. They have been burned before such as at the locals when they said the Tories would need 200 gains to make it a good night. Of course they got twice that much. However, this time, management of expectations worked like a charm this time.
It will be interesting to see how this affects the polls. We’ve noted that the Labour rebound has happened mostly at the expense of the rest rather than the Tories. Will a victory in Scotland where the Tories are important anyway have a similar effect.
44 There was group think but it wasn’t only from the Tories, as the PH 100 piece yesterday showed this extended to the commentariat. Like Mike my reaction a couple of weeks back was that Labour must think they could win - it was when I heard Brown was to campaign and local reports were highlighting local issues and council unpopularity. However the reports of large numbers of SNP activists, the SNP leaderships bold claims, Scots & national newspaper reports, made me doubt that feeling.
Its a great result for Gordon Brown, cements his leadership against challenge so reducing pressures on him. Its bad for SNP as the honeymoon is over and Salmond has suffered a personal defeat, taking personal charge of the campaign with so many visits.
Confirms that Brown has consolidated the Labour vote in Labour seats - not good news for a Conservative Party that needs to take 125 or so seats to win.
A further weak showing by the Lib Dems and in an area where they have two sitting MPs - winning where? becomes the question for them.
The bigger event of yesterday was not Glenrothes, but the IMF confirming that Britain was the worst placed country to face the recession. And the BBC reporting it. The china shop of Brown’s self-promotion meeting the enraged bull of scrutiny….
Last night Stephen Pound on Sky said that the economy was doing ok and that retail sales were holding up well and the shops he had seen were packed.
66 “the shops he had seen were packed”
Spends a lot of time in charity shops, does he?
44. Just shows that old Abe Lincoln was right: “You can fool all of the people some of the time”.
An impressive result for Labour. When I saw a correspondent on BBC say why Labour won - an unpopular (?) local SNP council, Gordon Brown being next door (who is still apparently popular), the problems with RBS (showing how poorly Scotland coud fare alone) and the genereal idea that some people want Brown to help them through this recession (putting aside the fact that he is partly responsible) - I come to the conclusion, why didn’t anyone think Labour could hold on??? Are they all idiots in the media?
Anyway, this just reinforces the impression I get that in the next election Labour will poll at least what they got in 2005, i.e. somewhere around 35% or 36%.
Labour will shore up their core vote in Scotland and the north of England. It’s up to Cameron and the rest of the Conservatives to persuade enough people in the rest of the country to get rid of this government and give him a chance to turn this country around.
[64] - I think, though people will correct me if I’m wrong, that we’ve yet to see the Lib Dem vote go seriously backwards in a place where they start in second or first place.
Ealing Southall would be the closest to this, but that happened at a strange time shortly after Blair had left.
I still think the Lib Dems may surprise people and hang on where they are already strong, but lose votes everywhere they are not.
66 To be fair Stephen Pound is MP for Ealing quite close to the new Westfield centre which had 0.5million shoppers checking it out at the weekend. If Tiffanys is a charity shop…
68 “Just shows that old Abe Lincoln was right: “You can fool all of the people some of the time”.
And as George W Bush said: “You can fool some of the people all of the time. And those are the ones to focus on….”
19 - We, like the Americans, live in a federation. Federations are a triumph of idealism over realism, of the belief that people can get along together over the knowledge that, usually, they can’t. Often, one constituent of a federation acquires power and significance within the whole that is entirely disproportionate to its size. Such has been long the case with Scotland in the Union.
The media narrative [if you missed Charlie Stayt rejoicing on the BBC this morning, thank your stars – it was nauseating] is obviously going to be that that Glenrothes has made a fourth victory for Labour more likely. The popular narrative in England, which has many times the population of Scotalnd and whose popular vote will go heavily against Labour in the next election, yet again seems not to matter.
Richard. Here’s a serious question for you Labour cheerleaders. Are you gloating about Glenrothes merely because you’re convinced Labour should remain in power forever or because you think Brown is actually something other than an incompetent, arrogant, deluded megalomaniac?
Obviously the MPs called it right and we [not me actually] and the commentators called it wrong. I suspect at the heart of this was a better understanding of the Labour spin operation. It was at the heart of my thoughts.
It was interesting that as the possiblity of a Labour hold started to gain traction, Labour put a lot of effort into squashing it. What happened to Brogan seems significant now.
Interesting how Craig who spent most of the night chatting to Labour kept referring to the betting markets. I didn’t think Nick would be in trouble for his comments and posted that he was just doing his job at the time.
What seems clear is that there was a concerted effort to play Labour as the underdogs, which in such a safe seat, they never were.
As Curtice said, the fought a safe Labour seat since 1954 as an oppostion party to the SNP in Scotland and locally at a time when the Scots have gone distinctly cold on the idea of a Salmond run independent Scotland. The SNP put up the leader of the Council and Salmond fought as the Scottish leader. They were both vulnerable on their record. The system in Scotland is unique. Salmond’s period in office is now long enough to trigger the effect of the split dynamic devolution created.
As Curtis said, Labour cannot play the opposition party to the Tories in a GE. Furthermore, this was a local campaign. It was also in the PM’s heartlands. On this basis I don’t think you can extrapolate too much outside Scotland.
Inside, I think its now clear that a Labour wipe put at the hands of the SNP is very much less likely. The same goes for Independence.
However, the press will extrapolate too much.
The result will be more ‘Brown recovery’ in the press and more confidence in the Labour Party ranks. Gordon will continue to have a easier time for now and perhaps for a while to come and is almost certainly safe in post until the next GE.
Labour still have to contend with the economic narrative that they are to blame for the counrties - woes which the IMF have given credence to.
The Tories are facing a tough time making inroads into Scotland against Labour.
The Lib Dems are stuffed, except in their enclaves unless they stop backing Labour. It was notable how supportive they were last night of Labour. If this gets you fourth place, you need to think again.
Salmond has hit the end of his honeymoon and is going to have to start acting like the incumbent he is.
66. Take anything Pound says with a great deal of salt. He’s my local MP and, believe me, he lives in a bubble of his own.
I lost my political betting virginity based on a tip on this site on 14 Oct when odds were 10/3. I couldn’t afford to bet more than £20, but will be collecting my £86.68 later today. I wonder what I should do with it. I’d like to place it on something else… Now that the US election is over and Glenrothes is sorted, what else is there to bet on?
Wait a minute, chaps. This was an anti-government vote. The government in this case being the SNP, both at the national level and at the local level.
The electorate went for the party best placed to humiliate the government, which in this case happened to be Labour. It’s just the normal mid-term anti-government vote.
What has the SNP done to cheese off the electorate? I think two things in particular:
1. Cosy up to the Tories, or more exactly, allow the Tories to cosy up to them. All the guff about Cameron having “decontaminated the Tory brand” just is not true. In Scotland, at least, they are clearly seen to be poison, in this case to the detriment of the SNP image.
2. Selling off Scotland to the Yanks. And at the same time cosying up to multi-millionaires. Not good for the super-nationalist image. People don’t like being sold out.
And then there is the failure of the SNP to deal with the failure of Scotland’s two large banks. They have to be rescued by London. What are the SNP for, if not to look after Scottish interests?
Does this have any implications for Wales and England? I think so.
In Wales, it is the Labour and Plaid who form the administration. I don’t think they have been as inept or as arrogant as the SNP, but the oposition (ready and waiting to give the government a good kicking) are the Tories and the Lib Dems. Quite a different scenario.
And in England, the national government may be Labour, but the local government is very often Conservative, and not very efficient either. The beneficiaries here ought to be the Lib Dems or the BNP. And this is what we find in local government byelections, as Mark Senior so frequently and correctly points out.
So there are no nation-wide implications to be found in Glenrothes. We remain with a pattern of two-party contests in most constituencies; and the two parties in contention are everywhere dependent upon local circumstances. Interesting.
Think you are right about the value bet being NOM for the next election - I’ve got some to do at 3.75 on Betfair if any of the cheerleaders for the Tories fancy it.
Great result for Labour - astoundingly good really. Congratulations.
Pity there is no liquidity on the Commons seat markets at the moment - I thing 310 would be a better level for the Tories but I am super short so I would say that.
nothing has changed. country still going down the tubes. gordon clings like a limpet. ordinary folk suffer. i have a family member who lost a good job in June and hasnt found another yet. gonna be a grim christmas for them and their family and thousands of others.
Adrian Hamilton has a good opinion piece in the Independent on Gordon Brown, the Supermac of Global Finance, in which he notes how Gordon is aping Tony Blair’s behaviour after 9/11 but “that there is a lot of self-serving claims to authorship going on here, a process of opportunism that suggest that he still doesn’t really understand what is happening in the world and is pushing barren remedies for its underlying woes.”
I have posted before that I don’t think Gordon understands the causes, his part in those and is therefore looking to the wrong solutions to take the UK through the recession better placed for non-inflationary growth afterwards. But if he is looking for an early 2009 election then perhaps that will not become evident before he makes his play for power.
I’m not sure though that polls will be good enough in spring to overcome his usual caution but perhaps Mandelson & Campbell will stiffen his resolve - he is already trying to convince the electorate that low inflation and interest rates show he’s winning the battle, which backed by a budget with carefully constructed tax breaks and message increased borrowing is not only necessary but vital might convince enough of the electorate that 5 more years of Gordon is the safer choice.
http://tinyurl.com/624t7j
Where are the congratulations for the PHI100, Mike?
Stephen Pound’s shops — we are now in the run-up to Christmas and there are a lot of sales and half-price deals about.
57. great parody of the attitude has been losing scottish deposits for the Con party since the early 90s
Whilst we can only hope and pray that the Old Fool Brown feels sufficiently emboldened to call an early GE, thus putting us all out of the misery of having to wait until May 2010, what he should do if feeling really bold is call a Scottish Independence referendum NOW. This result clearly shows that in the current climate, Scottish Independence is dead as an issue. Instead of letting the slippery Salmond continue with his machinations, Brown should cut him off at the pass now and bury the issue for a generation.
Come on Gordo, you’re “Mr Britishness” aren’t you? The Unionists amongst us will be forever grateful if you do it.
Good to see the Tories on the march in Glenrothes anyway, and of all places.
19. Simple observation and the polls to date back you up: the worse the economy gets the better Gordon fares. Many regulars here are incapable or unwilling to grasp this fact and let it drive their betting. I pointed this out last month, predicted level polls by Christmas and received a level of abuse that I normally have to pay 200 eur. for on the Reeperbahn.
I suggested a couple of days ago on this site that if Labour won, Gordon would be well advised to call a snap GE.
This is probably as good as it gets for Brown and with the inbuilt advantage Labout has in the archaic electoral system, if he makes a dash for it immediately, he could probably get a hung parliament and cling to power with the help of the LibDems.
There will be a lot of Labout MP’s desperate to save their skins and advising Brown to think long and hard about calling a snap election before the bad news starts pouring in next year.
Leave it until 2010 and he will be at the mercy of an unpredictable word-wide recession. At least by going for it now, he can avoid the wipe-out that looked on the cards only a couple of moths ago.
Remember, remember the 4th of December!
80 - Japan tried low interest rates after their banks overdid it speculating on commercial property and led the nation into years of recession. Strangely, this policy failed to re-inflate the Japanese economy. So that’s exactly why our genius leader is trying out the same cure here. [Forget the MPC. Who really thinks they're acting independently any more?]
Barren remedies, both for the UK and the US, are the order of the day because effective ones are so painful that the mere mention of them frightens voters to death. Brown understands this. Sadly, it’s about all he understands. Though it makes me and many others sick thinking of it, Brown could be back in power until 2014 or 2015. The economic outlook for the UK is beyond bleak. I can’t begin to imagine the state it will be in after another term of the ’safer choice’. Mothballed?
Okay, so I think Labour will have a bounce in the polls, but the Con vote will hold steady. So everyone will headline the diminished lead, but the vote is at least holding up.
83 A good night for Labour no doubt (they have now proved they can hold rock solid Labour seats, albeit with a much reduced majority.
Did no one but me notice the SNP vote went up 13%. 13% more people now want Scottish independence than at the 2005 election (OK, 10% allowing for tactical voting).
To extrapolate to the GE, this would mean the SNP gain 2 seats from Labour. Labour would lose 2 seats. The Tories would gain nothing.
Could someone explain how Labour losing 2 seats in the next GE is a success? They may have won the battle for Glenrothes, but they are still losing the war.
The real story here is this was a disaster for the SNP (whose vote was surely boosted by squeezing Lib and Con) - I for one am very glad to see Salmond’s smug grin disappear, at least for a while. Much though the result pleases (and surprises) me, it’s not really relevant to what will happen in England.
What still needs to be explained is how both SNP and Labour canvasses seemed to get it so badly wrong. Especially the former since the SNP was said to have covered the whole constituency whereas Labour had not.
81 Any chance we can get him permanently tagged as Stephen Poundshopper
84. Panurge: the worse the economy gets the better Gordon fares.
It’s turning into a textbook example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
didn;t hear the result until this morning.
i am absolutely gobsmacked. Just how badly doea a government have to run the economy before it becomes unpopular?
My head is reeling, I amimagining all sorts of unthinkable scenarios where Labour may even NOT LOSE the next election.
i am seriously considering volunteering to help the tories in the next door marginal seat to whwere I live, even though i have serous resevrations about their policies. but anyone but labour, really anyone. I am just totally appalled by this result. how many stupid people are there in this country?
i can’t work, can’t think, can’t do anything.
labour might win again
somebody shoot me
No time for gloating despite omelettes over so many faces……I thought Labour would lose because I couldn’t see much reason for voters to go out on a wet night and say ‘thanks’ to Gordon….But that’s what happened make no mistake…..
I do believe though that this is a time for the left of centre to reassert itself. Obama has changed the rules. Everyman is back in fashion.
That this happened after Mandelson and Campbell came back can’t be a coincidence. Someones on the rudder again.
Whether the Tories will be able to keep their lead with Osborne as Shadow Chancellor is the next big political question…..
I’m so sick of the cynical “narrative” spinners, looking for salvation in a made-up story. These are REAL people’s lives we are talking about. get real . focus on helping get the country out of the mess, not hanging on to power for power’s sake. alternatively , just call an election and get out of the damn way.
Gordon Brown can deliver 5 years of change we need? i won’t be living in the country in 5 years if he gets into power and nor will many others who are struggling in the WORST PLACED major economy. What a disaster. Still, the narrative is going well. Numpties.
86 Even Stuary Dickson might struggle to spin that as a great result for Scottish independence.
86. Albion T.I.D. I think we all remember wading through your dozens of posts simply saying “SNP 7000 majority”.
I happily concede my title as worst tipster on PB.Com. Well done!
This result and the Brogan experience makes it more likely that Nick Palmer’s ‘ dangerously frank comment’ was actually part of the expectation management operation.
91. I’m still completely shocked by this result also. It seems to me;
The economy does well - Labour win.
The economy does badly - Labour win.
In other words, Labour will never lose. We might just be stuck with them until the end of time!
88 John L, we really need to know why the SNP canvassing got it spectacularly wrong. Overall most punters on here were like me, wrong. However, the SNP have the activists and the base to still batter Labour in a GE.
It looks like the win was mainly due to Labour’s negative campaign about care charges. Backed by a sympathetic media it carried the day.
The real big stories yesterday are the economy and how dire the UK prospects are compared to elsewhere. Both the SNP and the Conservatives need to nail the economic problems on Brown. Whilst Ming last night uttered no criticism of Brown.
95. It’ll take more than that for you to concede your title roger.
93. James A. Perhaps it’s because it’s a site for political discussion. I think you should direct yourself to Cosmopolitans ‘Agony Aunt’.
95 Roger
The competition for the title of Worst Tipster On PB.com has hotted up quite a bit lately!
The tories won’t take much from this, but then again they won’t have to. It was a safe labour seat with them nowhere before. Labour will ry and spin it as being troublesome for the tories, but they can counter by mentioning how much the labour vote dropped in Henley, a comporably safe tory seat.
59 Wise words, Yokel.
There has to be a short term bounce for Labour from this, particularly for Gordon. Medium to long term, it’s still not looking too clever.
It was unquestionably a great result on the nite for Labour though and NOT PB’s finest hour.
Labour didn’t fight this election as the incumbent Government in recession, they fought it as the oppostion. They had a go at the local SNP council and Scottish Government. They complained of cuts etc. It was a campaign based on the fear of/disatisfaction with the incumbent’s policies.
Of course Salmond’s budget is set by…Gordon!
One up for shadsy? Ladbrokes were biggest about the SNP at 2/5 yesterday morning. They knew! They knew!
Any news on the government bailout for sad punters like me who wagered that SNP would take Glenrothes?
I used to bet with an Icelandic bookie
104. True, every seat that labour has fought as the government they’ve lost badly. This time they got to play the opposition, and they held on. At the next general election they’ll be fighting as the government nearly everywhere again.
91 Then volunteer! You don’t have to be a member. You don’t even have to talk much to them. You can do as much or as little as you want.
Just taking on a delivery route can help.
93 - Jon C. Many are ’sharing your pain’ over Glenrothes. I try to imagine what many Americans would be feeling if there was no two-term limit to the presidency and Bush was up for a third inauguration.
The answer, I feel, will increasingly be emigration. We’ve already had the Missing Million, the departure of a nearly that many of the nation’s brightest and best and youngest between the 1981 and 2001 UK census. What other choice is there but to hand over the keys to the asylum to the padded suit brigade?
It would be churlish to deny that this is a very good result for Labour, though perhaps not as sensational as some are claiming.
Does it mean Brown may be moved to call an early general election? Certainly not. A man whose awareness of a shift in the marginals dissauded him from going to the polls on the back of a healthy poll lead will not do a volte-face on the basis of a pat on the back from the heartlands, at least not in the face of more compelling evidence of his unpopularity in the regions where the next general election will be fought. Moreover, going to the polls now would look opportunistic and would surrender the “stable man in a crisis” narrative that Brown has managed to develop.
However, I think we have to give some credit to Brown. For a whole year he was comprehensively out-boxed by Cameron, he looked weak and indecisive and was generating a toxic mix of anger and contempt. He has shown some character to come back from that, grab hold of his party again and come out fighting. His “no time for a novice” line may have been of questionable intent and limited resonance, but his “serious man for serious times” angle is striking a chord.
In the long-term I see nothing but a very comfortable Conservative victory at the next election, due principally to the advantage they have in ideas, energy, organisation, money and morale. But the last few weeks have served as a useful reminder that Cameron hasn’t been given his own set of keys yet.
109 i am going to start helping out again too. this is a wake up call.
Anyone catch the Ming interview on BBC last night during the count where he praised Brown as giving a competent performance during this period and said nothing about the disastrous mistakes Brown had made previously?
Whatever happened to the strategy Clegg announced of attacking Labour and Labour held seats?
111. Lib dems are looking more and more like they have no strategy at all.
Morning all, what can I say my flaber is well and truly gasted!!
Sorry guys I let you al down badly with my confident prediction of an SNP gain by 5000. I still think come the GE Labour will take a hammering in Scotland but more sobecause clearly the anti-Tory vote is unravelling which worked so badly against the Tories in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
Although the Tories lost their deposit, the fact that like in Glasgow East there fall was far more modest than the LibDems, does point to serious LibDem problems in Scotland come the GE.
Anyway lots of humble pie from yours truly today and congratulations to the Clunking fist and his Marty Feldman lookalike for persuading the good folks of Glenrothes to stick by the party of hopelessnes and despair which has ground them into the dust for 50 years. Clearly in the months ahead many hundreds of them will sadly have lots of time to reflect on their mistake last night as in increasing numbers they visit the Unemployment offices in Glenrothes.
111. Ming isn’t following it but is giving a good example of why he wasn’t up to the job as Lib Dem leader. Whether Clegg himself is following his own script is another matter.
111 If I hadn’t known who Ming was I’d of thought he was a Labour spokesman - grudging mention of Vince Cable but otherwise he supported Brown, attacked SNP and Conservatives and barely mentioned his own party.
The byelection has to be viewed in the context of midway through a third term surely! In that context this is a remarkable result, it would be foolish to pretend otherwise.
As for the reasons; many and varied I’m sure. Cast your minds back, to ‘92, (yes again) can you imagine the result of a byelection held in a safe Tory seat a short time after the ERM disaster, think they’d have held it, no neither do I!
As for the SNP lady complaining about Labour tactics, providing the, ‘other side’ have done nothing illegal, whats the gripe? Never complain about the tactics of the opposition, complain about the inability of your own side, for not being able to counter them.
As an agnostic on the Union, (although I’d like to see its end to find out exactly what the political and economic repercussions would be) its ironic that its Labour thats fighting hardest for its preservation. The Conservative & Unionist party is probably nearer to my point of view, in fact most English Tories are openly hostile to the Scots and can’t wait to see the back of ‘em.
107 The SNP candidiate was the council leader. He can’t blame the Scots Government. The SNP had to pass he buck at least once, sometimes twice.
For someone with a poor understanding of Scottish politics I took some comfort from the Scottish TV coverage.
It really is a different world with a totally different system. This is the first time since devolution that Labour have been able to portray themselves as in oppostion against a jaded incumbent since the Tories were in power in Westminister.
Proportional representation in the Scottish Parliament means that the parties of government are more fluid than south of the border and this will lead to a seperate and ever changing dynamic in Scotland, but will not lead to the end of Labour in Scotland [or the end of the union?] as many had predidcted.
But it will lead to a very different landscape from the rest of the UK.
Well, well! I for one will be reading the posts of some of our “Scottish correspondents” with a great deal more scepticism from now on. It seems that Salmond and co are a lot less popular up there than we have been led to believe.
110 Good man [I assume you mean help the Tories!]
109. Top post. Sums it up nicely I’d say.
91.Jon C. “….i can’t work, can’t think, can’t do anything”
You always strike me as so hysterical I imagined you did work anyway.
Feeling smug after last night. All money was committed until after the Obamathon so didn’t bet until yesterday morning when I followed the flock into the SNP pen. But then, last night, when informed people kept saying ‘too close to call’ it seemed that Labour at 5/1 might be value.
My winnings will fund a short break in the local cafe tomorrow morning.
Has last night’s nonsense about an early general election died down yet? Sure it’s a great result for Labour but it actually adds weight to the argument that the slight polling recovery is in the Labour heartlands (an argument which is backed up by the YouGov marginals poll). There is no evidence that this result could be replicated in England, in a Labour/Conservative marginals.
Labour will still lose but there may be some comfort in Scotland in the SNP have peaked.
92 Roger. Good comment… apart from Osborne, ignore him or under-estimate him at your peril.
The advent of Mandelson and Campbell have certainly steadied the Labour faithful and given them some ideas, it remains to be seen for how long they can weather the storm and if they can pull in more than just core voters. This won’t be enough for a GE.
Picked up a few quid on Labour on Glenrothes thanks to the early tips about good value on this site a few weeks ago.
The SNP honeymoon with Scotland has had it’s first minor argument, it remains to be seen if it can get back onto good terms with it’s partner and establish a longer relationship. The signs are that it may be an bumpy marriage.
116 You seem to be ignoring the Scottish Parliamantary system, its effect and unique nature.
By referring to a third term Government you are using history as a yard stick and there is no historical precident for by elctions in Scotland when the Scottish Governing party is not Labour and is no loner on honeymoon.
It was a point raised by the Scottish pundits last might - repeatedly.
Mike - where did you buy Labour seats overnight? SPIN and IG were not up, Spreadfair was illiquid. Or is this another of your mythical bets?
118 And what about the posts from the MP for Broxtowe?
123. No, I still think Brown should go for it. I don’t think things will get better for him than they are right now. Whats he got to lose? If he delays he will only lose anyway, so why not go for it and see what happens?
What a great week for elections. The left wins all round.
Nick Robinson on Today made what seemed a fair point (for once)He said that the SNP council had upset a lot of people up in Glenrothes by increasing fees (or taxes, or summat?) and this had cost them a lot of votes.
Hardly resounding support for Labour then, just a kick in the teeth for the council.There’s usually money behind it somewhere!
123 They won’t get better for the PARTY. They may [just may] lose less seats now than further down the line. But he will lose many months in office.
Didn’t have chance to comment on the result last night, so:
Excellent win for Labour and poor across the board for the other parties. I’m annoyed with myself for turning down the 3/1 for Labour that was on offer when I checked last night, even if it was cover my exposure having laid them at 11/10. Ah well - we all make mistakes.
There’ve been some good analyses already and the points about why people voted Labour in Glenrothes are worth noting, with many of them being local - but there are local factors all over the country and with Labour controlling fewer and fewer local councils and regional governments, the scope for hitting back at the other parties will often be there. That said, the government’s successes and failures will generally trump those of lesser administrations.
Alex Salmond needs to take a long look at what happened here. The SNP should have been very much in the game, and probably leading in it. Many thought they were - and were very much wrong. The downturn hitting two of the mainstays of the Scottish economy (finance and oil) can’t have helped the SNP’s chances in as far as it hit their independence campaign but that wouldn’t matter if they were picking up protest votes.
Predictably rubbish for the Tories and Lib Dems. Worse for the Lib Dems than the Tories given the starting figures but serious messages for both - the Tories need to be seen as national players and given that the SNP didn’t advance as expected, the other parties shouldn’t have been squeezed to that extent. The Lib Dems should be getting concerned about their Scottish seats. This is the latest in a long line of poor results for them north of the border and while they weren’t in with a chance of winning, they did start off with a respectable total from 2005. Finishing in three figures is embarrassing.
An excellent observation about the odds for a hung parliament from PfP upthread. I’ve just taken £100 at 3.65, which is excellent value. There are a huge number by historical standards of non-Tory/Labour MPs for the Tories to have to pass to win outright and while there’s still a good chance that it could happen, last night’s result demonstrates the resiliance of parts of the Labour vote. Even if the middle parties get squeezed, there has to be a better than 2 in 7 chance of the Tories gaining at least 30 but not getting 110.
Finally, much amused by Ave It’s online impersonation on the previous thread of a Diamond White drinker berating the bottle for running out of drink and taking issue with anything that won’t move out of his way.
Not even Gord will defend this
The Opposition parties have to get their acts together
From the IMF, forecast Growth Rates for 2009 :
. China +8.5%
. Russia +3.5%
. Brazil +3.0%
. East Euro +2.5%
. Canada +0.3%
. Mexico +0.9%
. Japan -0.2%
. France -0.5%
. Euro Zone -0.5%
. Italy -0.6%
. Britain -1.3
I wouldn’t read to much into the result either. But it’s a whole lot better than taking a trouncing.
On a TV vox pop yesterday I was intrigued by the elderly Tory who voted Labour despite thinking the government was rubbish, purely to be able to support the principle of the Union against the Nationlists. A new tactical vote variable.
Why is it assumed that core vote only exists in Labour held seats?
Oh, and no sign of Mr Dickson this morning?
I would also doubt the potential for a further bounce in the polls after this. This by-election is primarily, a Scottish issue. The idea that the SNP are in retreat may create some movement north of the Border but I cannot see it having much impact in England. Very few people knew this by-election was happening and even fewer care about the result. It isn’t a Labour/Conservative fight so it wont capture the same interest nationally. It’s the headline on the BBC News site yet isn’t in the top 5 most read stories.
This is a great result for Labour, they are strengthening their position in their traditional territories. Checking the SNP will save seats in Scotland. It isn’t going to prevent a massacre in England.
128 The posts from Nick are mostly just pure govt spin so I usually just skip over them.
124. what exposure would Osbourne have to have before his apologists accepted that he is not “ignored” or “under-estimated”?
you would have thought a global financial crisis would be a good chance for a shadow chancellor to say something (anything?) useful and prove himself.
when are we going to see the true George Osbourne, in your opinion?
A constant question on here, after reading someone’s gloating over his betting successes, is: who loses?
On Tuesday night, I was with Obama on a number of states which were long shots (Montana, Kentucky etc). The only one I closed was the only one he won (Indiana). During the evening, I ‘pressed up’. Obama won none at these big prices–if 5/2 counts as a ‘big price’. I was also with M under 21.5 states. Hmmm.
Last night, I lumped on the SNP at prices between 8/13 and 1/2, on our hosts ’strong advice’. I was also with Lads tricast: SNP/Lab/Con.
One current answer to the question posed in paragraph one…
129 You think the Labour government is “left”? LOL
115 Ted “If I hadn’t known who Ming was I’d of thought he was a Labour spokesman -”
Sums that interview up very well.
As others have posted the LDs strategy is all over the place and this is the 10th by election they have failed to win.
Elsewhere on Con Home the Conservative activists delivered a well deserved kicking to George Osborne. A shape up or ship out message.
127. Interesting question about Nick P’s intentions in declaring defeat yesterday afternoon. I’m inclined to take him at his word when he says he doesn’t dissemble here to protect his reputation.
He was genuinely pissed-off with the lack of canvas info and, given his anti-party vote the night before, I think more dissatisfied than he’s ever shown here before.
Roger - thanks for your kind reminder of my tip of SNP by 7,000. I was wrong, I have now decided I was so wrong is that it appears the Scots hate the English more than Gordon Brown. They know they won’t get independence themselves, what better way to stick it to the English than to elect a Scot to ruin the English economy. Never been to Scotland, yet they ru(i)n the economy I work to survuve in.
On a brighter note, the Tory buy position on Spreadfair has moved down to 341. This is a good value bet now. I have been selling the Lib Dems at 44 for the last couple of weeks, now its time to move to buying the Tories.
“No more boom and bust”
I wonder if we can learn some lessons from recent by-elections. The SNP seem to have won the battle on the streets in Glenrothes in that they had the most activists on the ground enthusiastically delivering leaflets. I had personal experience of the Henley by-election when the Libdems were openly boasting about the tonnage of paper they delivered compared with their opponents. I don’t think either campaign was very effective and some people were put off.
Perhaps we take too much notice of this frenetic action when looking at the betting odds and let the activists sway our judgement. Perhaps we need to concentrate on the fundamental issues and how well the candidates get across a simple message.
133. This IMF may increase Labour support even more. We seem to be in an odd, paralell universe where the worse the economy gets the better Labour does. Weird!
136. Just to note, the Lib Dems look in terrible trouble. Where do they turn when faced with a dominant Conservative party and a Labour party that is recovering in its heartlands? There is nothing left for them to exploit.
130 He may have got some advice from the BBC Scottish correspondent. Robinson often referes to his blog on matters Scottish.
He made all the points I have been making. They fought this as an opposition party to the SNP.
In fact he said Labour had based their campaign ‘on fear, the fear -of the most vunlerable’. The SNP candidate, as the council leader was very vulnerable.
It will come to be seen as a pyrrhic victory. Brown’s difficulties last year started when the public realised they were being lied to (”the opinion polls played no part in my decision”). When they realise that they are being lied to again “economy best placed to weather the global financial storm”) they will turn against Brown again.
Yet again last night I was angered by the likes of Lindsey Roy going on about how he fought on local issues - housing, health, education, social care. It might be news to him but he can do bugger all about these as a Westminster MP. Do not even the Labour MPs realise in what a complete mess they have left this country’s consitutional arrangements.
145. No idea why I put 136 there.
142 You got the majority close if not the party
145
They’ve still got the “don’t know” vote sewn up.
137 Osborne and his team should be on the TV, radio, and in the papers every day pumping out the message that Brown reckless borrowing and profligacy during ten years as chancellor has left the UK WORST PLACED to weather the coming economic maelstrom:
From the IMF, forecast Growth Rates for 2009 :
. China +8.5%
. Russia +3.5%
. Brazil +3.0%
. East Euro +2.5%
. Canada +0.3%
. Mexico +0.9%
. Japan -0.2%
. France -0.5%
. Euro Zone -0.5%
. Italy -0.6%
. BRITAIN -1.3
That -1.3% is optimistic IMO
Unless I’ve missed it, not a single Tory poster has attacked my statement in 116.
The Conservative & Unionist party is probably nearer to my point of view, in fact most English Tories are openly hostile to the Scots and can’t wait to see the back of ‘em.
Hmmm I’ll take that as a yes then?
138 Commiserations, David. Nobody wins all the time.
Apologies if I led you astray Tuesday.
It’s quite fun watching Tory posters flailing around for an angle on what is clearly, undeniably a good result for the govt. The turnaround since Glasgow East is utterly remarkable.
Is George Osborne perhaps the Sir Keith Joseph or even Peter Mandelson of the Shadow Cabinet? The brilliant backroom boy who can’t quite cut it in the first team.
Or is keeping schtum the wisest course given the dangers of being wrong-footed by events, as Vince Cable arguably has been more than once? Wait to see how things pan out, then blame Gordon: is that the idea?
151. Indeed. I think a contraction of up tp -3% is quite possible in 2009.
152
No.
WRT a snap general election, is Labour’s organisation in any serious shape to fight one? My thoughts would be “no” but perhaps others think differently? I would have thought though that if Labour has learnt anything it would be NOT to stoke more election speculation after what happened in October last year. Let us remember that Labour, despite this current “bounce”, has still yet to recover anything like the ratings it enjoyed during the first Brown Bounce. That all said, Glenrothes was an excellent result for Labour, we will have to wait and see whether it translates into the national polls.
152. Assuming that because everyone is ignoring you means they agree with you is a dodgy logic at best For someone who not only is not a tory member, but doesn’t like the party either, you like to talk about what they think a lot. Some kind of mental powers? Or just guesswork?
Quite a surprise, and not a happy one.
The implications are:
1) Salmond’s honeymoon is over. I’m surprised that, given the extent of the loss, he was still saying they would win it.
2) At the time of election at least, kicking Gordon is not the primary motivation of Glenrothes voters.
3) Labour managed expectations very well indeed. However, they shot this bolt against the SNP, not the Tories. A further strong warning to Cameron et al. (and I think the et al. need it more than him) not to become complacent.
4) Most seriously, we won’t get a new Downfall spoof for some time:(
Am I now a political betting guru having won £35 from last nights result?
144 They may do better with their core vote. But they will suffer outside it.
A return to polarised two party politics. Which leads on to the point made in post 145.
145. Yes. This is also a very bad result for the SNP - their bubble looks to have burst. Good news for the Tories in places like Perth, Angus etc…
154. Flailing around? What are you talking about? It was a good result for labour, no-one has denied that. However, there are a series of caveats for the result that cannot be replicated south of the border.
152 You’ve missed it.
153. No apologies required. The bet was placed last week some time and as I said, I had my chance to go all-green or reverse positions at a profit last night and turned it down. My mistake.
re 101 I seem to remember there were several hunded of us (but not me) who voted for SNP in the site poll last week.
144 We’ve only really had the financial crisis (banks etc) so far. When the crisis hits the real economy (business, jobs, etc) in the months ahead then let’s see how popular Brown is.
I doubt he’ll be parading around as the “Great Saviour” when hundreds of thousands of jobs are going, house prices are crashing, repos rising, and liquidations and bankruptcies are all over the news headlines. There’s probably going to be a sterling crisis to get through aswell. Hubris will have caught up with him by then.
Morning all.
Today’s spin doesn’t surprise me at all, keeps the media narrative going. Whether it’ll force other parties to up their game a little bit more now remains to be seen.
Incidentally, Betfair hasn’t yet settled. Any reason for the delay?
[135] Chris M wrote
Well, Labour does have heartlands in England, too. But this is a very strange result - the consensus yesterday was that the majority would be below 2000 either way. Looks as though there was a big squeeze by both Labour and SNP - easier to achieve in a by-election than a General, surely?
WHat’s that smell? Ah yes, it’s the smell of Tory and SNP hubris evaporating!
More seriously though, the scale of the hold cant just be from the brown “economic bounce” - there has to be some kind of Obama effect at work.
154. Hmm, not really. It’s a Scottish result which present an entirely different set of circumstances to England. Labour will still be massacred in England by the Tories. I’m sure they know that and their supporters would do well not to display the same sort of over-confidence which was their undoing in October 07.
OT. (This thread is starting to sound like a wake)
I have a blood test every month or so and the nurse whoever and wherever they might be always say before sticking in the needle “little prick…”
Then out of the blue one said “slight scratch” so I asked what had happened to ‘little prick’ and she said they’d had a directive from the Minister of health not to use that anymore because it could be insulting.
170, lmao. Obama won it for Labour? Balls.
Labour won it with a decent message, and the helpful collapse of half the Arc of Prosperity Salmond wanted to join.
170
Yes! Yes of course!
The One ascends > Labour hold safe seat.
Thanks for pointing that one out. I’d missed the religious angle.
92 Roger, interesting point about Osborne, but if he’s really that poor why do so many Labour commentators keep suggesting he goes? It doesn’t add up -surely it’s in their interests to leave him in place if he’s rubbish?
Glenrothes is interesting, but halving a majority in a solid Labour seat next to Kirkaldy doesn’t strike me as being an outstanding win. Rigging expectation through Brogan etc was class, but only works once - they should have kept that powder dry.
I’d like to Brown to call a GE, but I think he’d be mad to do so. He could do it if he wants to cut Labours losses now, let Cameron take the flak for the next 4 years and try and get back in again in 2014. Maybe he’s already lined up a nice new job with the IMF? The economy is already tanking. Car factory shutdowns from now through December will hit the suppliers in the Midlands very badly, and put a real dampener on Christmas for a lot of people. All those billboard sites with a laughing Gordon next to ‘No More Boom & Bust’ will not work well for him.
Interesting times
172 - Roger - can you write these words under your name to cheer me up - “I am pleased with last nights result, only a 5% swing away from Labour”.
154
164 is right. And if you look at last night’s thread there were plenty of ‘well done’s/good results etc. But its not unqualified.
You seem like a child who has recieved a good grade for an essay but who sulks when any of its shortcomings are pointed out.
152. I’ll rise to it. I’m an a-typical Tory, but I’d love to see an independent Scotland if that is what the Scottish people want, and I think it may be in the interests of both countries to allow them to follow their own political path, given the divergence in views. That said, personally I would like to see the Union survive in some form even if political authority is fully devolved, and I can see a lot of sense in retaining pooled resources in some areas (e.g. military matters) though I can see that would be fraught with risk/issue
re 137 when are we going to see the true George Osbourne, in your opinion?
Never, or is this some long lost relative of Ozzy’s?
163. That’s a very good point actually. If an unpopular Labour government can hold off the SNP then perhaps Tory gains from the SNP are a realistic possibility.
164,171 The truth is we simply don’t know if the situation has improved for Labour as much south of the border as much as it has North.
What we do know is in the July Glasgow East election the SNP could easily trounce Labour. That has clearly changed. It is an amazing turn around.
It is a stretch to beleive this is all down to the SNP doing worse and nothing to do with Labour doing better. My guess is that Labour would have done better in C&N if it were held yesterday.
116. The hostility to the Scots from the English only comes from the post devolution sense of unfairness.
A general feeling exists, rightly or wrongly that Scots get a far higher percentage of government spending then England, and this is paid for from the English tax payers.
Look at the issues on which scots get a better deal:
i) No prescription charges
ii) No care charges for the elderly, no need to sell the inheritance to put granny in a home.
iii) No variable tuition fees for students (in fact the only students who pay tuition fees in Scotland, out of the whole European union are those from England and northern ireland).
This is the kind of thing which ferments discontent, it was this kind of unfair privilege which breeds racism. We had multiple councils in the midlands and the north throwing money at immigrant groups, who were seen as the deserving, oppressed poor, while white poor areas full of feckless lazy drug taking racists got little in comparison.
Great result for Labour. Took us all completely by surprise. A tremendous result all in all. The Lib Dems in particular must be disappointed - Dunfermline and West Fife must seem an age ago.
I haven’t seen any polling data on this other than what’s on ConHome, but I really think George Osbourne is a liability for the Tories at the moment and will seriously damaged their chances. David Davis would be a much more effective Shadow Chancellor. When times are tough you want someone who can demonstrate a bit of connection and empathy. Davis’ humble origins would be great for them, whereas Obsorne comes across as sneering city boy. I don’t think Cameron has the guts to get rid of Osborne, which is great for Labour.
So what price a Brown come-back? I posted this in July and there was a good discussion about the possibilities of Brown remaining PM until 2012 or 2013. A little less remote than 4 months ago I’d argue.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/01/what-price-the-gordon-come-back/
I notice the Tory spreadfair position has moved down a seat to 340 in the ten minutes since I said I would start to buy them.
Albion moves the markets. Albeit inversely. OK here goes - FTSE to tank from 4329.
175 - “let Cameron take the flak for the next 4 years and try and get back in again in 2014″
Only one problem with that; if voters blame Labour for getting us into this mess in the first place, they probably won’t be very keen to have them back.
181. We still don’t know the position in England though. There has been a marginal improvement for Labour in the national polls but, on the basis of this evidence, a considerable improvement in Scotland and/or the Labour heartlands. That movement may account for the entirety of Labour’s improvement in the national polls. If that is the case then they would still probably have lost Crewe and Nantwich. Ableit by a slightly smaller margin.
13.”Westminster was right over the hacks”
And so were a few others, but they won’t be getting called on it too loudly in the media.
Good morning pbers - what another splendid day! Not quite as good as last Wednesday but pretty good nonetheless. I must admit last night I was long on Labour but I was convinced the election was going to be close and had planned to lay Labour when the election night jitters got the better of those heavily backing the SNP. As it turned out the early information on the likely result from Scottish radio surprised me and I kept my Labour position intact and am now currently waiting happily for Sid’s brother at Corals to open up shop.
181. Labour still haven’t got a good weapon to use against the tories. the serious people for serious times line is, at best, a rather dull line more suited to westminster than the country at large.
Just to add Roger, I am a Tory and a Unionist but frankly it gets boring repeating it to the same left wingers. There is no English Party and so for obvious reaons the Tories attract that vote.
Separation is not party policy, never has been and is not going to be under David Cameron.
The position for now and the forseeable future couldn’t be clearer.
Coldstone - They are now an English Nationalist party. Labour (and LD’s) can at least claim nationwide representation. Who is there in the Tory power who has influence, by virtue of having parliamentary seats behind him / her, to argue the Scottish case within the Tory hierarchy.
The Tories have had 10-12 seats in Scotland in recent memory. In terms of General Election arithmetic, its not a whole hill of beans. Becoming an english nationalist party does end a 150 year tradition though, and enables Labour to shore up its position in an area that is extraordinarily important to them
Just to add Roger, I am a Tory and a Unionist but frankly it gets boring repeating it to the same left wingers. There is no English Party and so for obvious reaons the Tories attract that vote.
Separation is not party policy, never has been and is not going to be under David Cameron.
The position for now and the forseeable future couldn’t be clearer.
thanks to the sceptics on here last night who convinced me to close my SNP back. Think the clincher was when I read there hadn’t been an opinion poll.
Almost lost my X-Factor winnings.
175. EdP. Osborne: Because Pinkos are first and foremost ruled by the heart and not the head and everything about Osborne is offensive. Portillo was the same as was Tebbit. Who knows why? A sort of right wing political arrogance perhaps?
I posted on several occassions that the Glenrothes result was totally unreadable, not least because of the inate politeness of people in Fife, who are liable to tell all canvassers what they wanted to hear. I also suspect that they objected instinctively to being taken for granted…and that at least some voted labour out of cussedness (i.e because they were being told that labour was going to lose). Nick Robinson also poinetd out on Today (this a.m) that the recession did not appear to have struck yet in Fife in terms of local job losses, etc
Here’s a good reason why the banks won’t be passing on yesterdays base rate cut to borrowers anytime soon:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1083711/Lenders-raise-billions-City-analyst-warns.html
186 I think it’s probably a good idea, as usual, to avoid making assumptions about national trends from this a single by-election result. But without doubt if the SNP had won you and others would be claiming that the bounce was meaningless.
It is impossible to deny that the turnaround since Glasgow East is significant.
Cameron now needs to come out and come out fighting. Reflect people’s anger which is real but as usual British people are a reticent bunch, given to muttering their dissatisfaction but not doing anything about it. The Tories need to sing it out loud and clear the mess that Labour have got this great country into , compared with other nations. That’s not doing the country down. Cameron should be able to articulate this - there’s enough ammunition now to last a lifetime against Labour. No amount of blame shifting Labour try and do must be tolerated. They’ve been in power 11 years,they need to take responsibilty.
Low interest rates are pretty irrelevant to whether we have a recession or not, when debt levels are as high as they are. Companies going to the wall and leaving people out of work is a hundred times more of a factor in reposesion court hearings than interest rates have ever been. Within a year repossesions and negative equity are going to be every bit as bad, if not worse than the 90s.
Cameron needs to lay the blame at Labour’s door and lead a way out of this unholy mess. My stomach lurches when i realise we are the worst placed to deal with the worst recession for 50 years - and the IMF is usually over cautious in their predictions, which is what makes it doubly frightening.
We are worst placed because of government policy.
186 I think the weekend polls will be interesting. Three weeks ago I have predicted a flatline of polls or the start of a move back to the Tories; in the event they have flatlined so a move back to the Tories over the weekend would seem likely. The result still constitutes a 5% swing away from Labour, enough for them to lose Livingston & Ochil to the SNP.
I have a strong feeling that we will be seeing that smirk wiped off Browns face before very much longer. The fall, when it comes, will be all the greater for all his hubristic prancing and preening.
194. I agree to an extent about Osborne. I don’t care about his character, none of us are perfect but Hague or Davis would be far more effective as Shadown Chancellor. In this economic climate the important of the position is heightened and Osborne doesn’t have the gravitas or the respect.
I really don’t think this result is such a surprise. The evidence was there in the YouGov regional splits that since the Labour conference and in particular the bail out of the two big Scottish banks there has been a marked swing back to Labour in Scotland, far greater than in the rest of the UK.
The narrative that to me has hit people hardest is that, if Scotland had been independent like Iceland, it would have been wiped out by the banking crisis. We know that the majority of Scots do not support independence and this type of concern will make people think twice about dabbling with the SNP.
However, having said that, it will take something completely different for Labour to turn things around in England as independence is a non-issue.
198, the IMF report must be used by Cameron in PMQs to hammer Brown. The ‘best placed’ line is very recent and one of his slogans, and totally debunked by the IMF.
Coldstone, what rubbish you are talking. English Tories love the Scots and the Union. If you can’t stand them/can’t wait to see the back of them you should just grow up.
Osborne: perhaps the Labour equivalent is David Miliband. His mates love him but others are cooler. Cometh the hour, be it the financial crisis or Russian aggression, and the man is nowhere to be seen.
Osborne really did blow it.
The timing of the yachtgate affair was everything. Just when the Tories needed to look straight and solid as a rock, they looked anything but. The damage was magnified a 1000 times.
194 That’s my point - surely it’s of benefit to the Left to leave Osborne in place?
196 The BOE rate still bears no relation to LIBOR, the true market rate.
160 - Why not a Downfall spoof with Mr Salmond as the occupant of the Bunker? Variety being the spice of life and all that? Spoofers - to work!
Seriously - a good night for Labour and a better one for Brown and his missus. Like Sally C I cautioned yesterday several times that something was afoot in the Labour spin operation. I take Dr Palmer at face value so I’m sure his remarks were sincere but the wretched Brogan was being played like a stradivarius through the day. Interesting that Jon Craig evidently saw through it whereas Brogan could not. (No sympathy for a fully paid up member of the ‘Get Dacre a K or a Big P’ project or for that matter one who takes the shilling of the vile Daily Mail though.) It’s clear Labour have learned their lessons in expectation management - the influence of Mandelson / Campbell posse perhaps?
This was a contest where I (as one of vaguely Cameroonian sympathies) would have liked both the main contenders to have lost, but the real loser is undountedly Salmond and the SNP. Total loss of credibility for him, and the honeymoon is well and truly over.
A grim night for the Lib Dems too - crushed like an apple in a vice.
I think the story of Glenrothes is entirely consistent with the polling data we have seen lately both from overall voting intention and the recent marginals poll. Glenrothes is a Labour heartland where Labout successfully campaigned as the opposition, and it is clear that the Labour core vote has been substantially recovered since Conference season. We will need to see more polling before we can conclude that there are any wider implications than that for the Tories.
However I am concerned that however much Cameron may protest their remains complacency among the Tory top echelons. Labour is very much back in the game. Cammo needs to get his top team focused (no more outside interests, thanks) and I am increasingly convinced he needs to move Osborne. A 37 year old who looks like a model of a public school boy made from uncooked dough doesn’t inspire confidence, and (albeit unfairly) he has been holed below the waterline by Deripaska.
To Mr Pound’s comments, he is simply wrong. Speaking as a functional head for a major retailer, it is utterly bloody out there. It’s great to have lots of people in store, but if they ain’t buying or you’re having to discount like crazy to get them to buy that is of limited comfort. Talking about how well Westfield London is doing is pointless - it has been open for a week. Lets see how it is doing after Christmas.
“It is a stretch to beleive this is all down to the SNP doing worse and nothing to do with Labour doing better. My guess is that Labour would have done better in C&N if it were held yesterday.”
I think the polls have shown that there has been some movement from the SNP to Lab over the last few months. The polls also show the Con vote holding up and Lab gaining back from others and less so from Con. It would seem to suggest the swingback is stronger in Scotland than in England.
Of course we need some harder evidence, hence my advice for Cambo to shoot a Labour MP to precipitate another by-election.
197.”186 I think it’s probably a good idea, as usual, to avoid making assumptions about national trends from this a single by-election result.”
Why, its one of the main reasons I bet on Labour in this by election when I did. Mike Smithson noted a hardening of Labour’s core vote in its heartlands in recent polls.
Well Glenrothes was the first sign of solid evidence of that trend.
Add in the fact that Gordon sent Sarah into Glenrothes first, and then went himself, that was definitely a major straw in the wind.
Remember this man talks of others courage all the time, but he has absolutely no shreds of it himself. He would not have gone near this election if it had been completely in the bag for the SNP in the latter stages of the campaign.
198 Look at todays FT - the IMF are already predicting a recession as bad as the early 90’s.
206 yachtgate was a Labour invention. Mandelson & friends at the broadcaster who shall not be named. Smokescreen. It was all about nothing.
Mandelson’s corrupt dealings are still waiting to be exposed.
206.”I don’t care about his character, none of us are perfect but Hague or Davis would be far more effective as Shadown Chancellor.”
Really? Absolute tosh.
60. The bookies are being rather cheeky. Even the BBC have called NC for Obama now – however for those on ECV spreads it is now looking like Obama *365* because he is likely to pick up one ECV in Nebraska.
211, tosh. The yacht incident was a donations ’scandal’ with no donation. Everybody save Brownites criticised the BBC for blowing it out of all proportion.
127- I think Nick p’s posts are pretty genuine. That doesnt mean they arent Biased and I dont think Nick would dispute that.
He wasnt saying different to the general consensus was he ?
I think this result was genuinely surprising to Labour as well as anybody else.
A possible reason I can think of is that the Voter ID was non existant at the beginnining of the campaign so The Labour campaign’s awareness of who was strong labour and who was weak will have been very shaky .
When we debate polls on this site we often focus on past voting and ways to weight what the initial data says, it may have been that while Lab was able to dramatically increase its voter ID its confidence in what respondents were telling them would have been cautious at best.
Is there a betting lesson there , that when you know the incumbent had no Voter ID at the beginning that there is a much larger element of uncertainty ?
217 - Absolutely agree, but the damage is done. Unfair yes, but still true.
And Osborne just doesn’t look the part. No gravitas.
181 I think you are right about C&N but its rather partonising to lump Glasgow East and Glenrothes together. They are different.
I suspect Labour would have done better in Glasgow East aswell if it had been held yesterday.Possibly well enough to hold on. But there is still reason to think that there would still have been a much bigger swing to the SNP than in Glenrothes, where Gordon is a local and where there are still mining strongeholds and where the local SNP administartion had got ‘issues’.
With regards to the timing, you can’t assume all the reduction in swing is down to an improvement in Labour’s position. It could be down to an SNP deterioration.
Independence, the SNP’s raison d’etre has taken a bashing. This poll could just as easily be looked at as a verdict on independence.
The BBC’s correspondent last night said the Scots were not scared of it, but they were becoming very much less enthused by it. People who were once willing to lend their vote despite the SNP’s stance were pulling back. If Tories are prepared to vote Labour for the Union, something is afoot.
Few predictions for the next year or so after reading recent posts:
1: Labour will stage a fightback in Scotland, winning a few of these sort of Glenrothes seats. SNP will find it harder now, though should still have a majority.
2: There won’t be so much of a fightback in England, outside the real heartlands. Brown doesn’t seem “liked” enough certainly, though his current Indian summer will stave off the excesses
3: Osbourne will stay for now. If he does get moved upstairs, it’ll be at a time when the general election machines start grinding into gear
4: Mandy will stay longer than people think
5: The general voting public will continue to ignore the vast majority of stories that people on here get so excited about. The economy will decide things as ever
Oh no. Just watching This Week. Andrew Neil has ripped off the Daily Mash again.
Bill Jones,lecturer in politics,Manchester University
on bloomberg.com
“Everybody is distracted from Glenrothes by the American election,” Jones said. “But it has thrown into sharp relief Brown’s inadequacies compared to the shining light on the other side of the Atlantic.”
On one side of the ocean there is “Barack Obama’s natural loquacity and brilliance,” while in the U.K. “we have a speak- your-weight machine” which only demonstrates “how short-changed we’ve been,” said Jones.
217 It didn’t matter where it came from, Osborne’s handling of it was p1ss poor. It was that which really did the damage. He didn’t appear to be solid or entirely straight at a time when he should have been looking like a rock of stability, a man with a plan.
James A. “Cameron needs to come out fighting…..”
The problem is he’s coming from the wrong direction. There’s a big opportunity for a serious articulate ‘lefty’ to come and shake things up.
But I don’t believe there’s any appetite whatever for the two ‘Bullingdon boys’ at this time and after Obamas victory they might even look like an anachronism.
208
‘ello test, I didn’t say I didn’t like the Scots, (some of my best friends are y’know) I said most English Tories can’t wait to see the back of ‘em.
Gosh! last night must remind you of Southall and Enfield, do you still bear the scars?
222.”217 - Absolutely agree, but the damage is done. Unfair yes, but still true.”
No, the damage has not been done as you put it. But the political damage to the Conservative party and Cameron if Osborne was to go right now would be felt for some time to come. It continues to amaze me that so many Tory posters cannot comprehend that simple fact. And after it has been proved so many times in the past 11 years….
229. Really? You’ve asked most of them then? Or just assuming, again.
re 214 and who would you suggest he shoots? What would be the archetypal bye election which would give all 3 parties (with apologies to the SNP and PC) a workout?
My money would be on a seat with a Labout majority of about 7,500 with the LDs in second and the Tories about 1,000 votes behind that.
201 It’s Cameron who needs to take on Brown not Osborne and on reflection I think he made the wrong choice at Conference. Fear of being seen as partisan in a national crisis meant he didn’t stick the blame on Brown before the bail-out. He should have been stronger on saying that the financial crisis hitting British banks was due to the incompetence of Brown’s regulatory set up, the lax management of debt and that the British people would suffer as Brown’s chickens came home to roost.
At the time I thought he had played it well, offering co-operation, but as the first PMQs showed Brown wasn’t interested in non partisanship but in political survival.
The Conservative economic policy needs to be about recovery not today - about what they will do to manage the terrible economic inheritance they will get. That’s what Osborne should be developing. Cameron should be attacking Brown hard, using Brown’s own words and developing the responses to Brown’s tractor statistics.
He should also turn the ERM/Black Wednesday jibe into a strength, rather than trying to hide it - experience of being in Government in a recession, recognised mistakes (and quote Brown’s support or the ERM and willingness to return to fixed exchange rates) learnt lessons, saw how well Ken Clarke managed recovery and built foundation for prosperity wrecked by Gordon Brown. He isn’t a novice when it comes to dealing with hard times but an old hand (OK he was only an advisor but Brown tries to paint him as a central figure).
231
I’ll have y’know that some of my best friends are Tories too!
Can’t wait for Heffer’s take on all this, bet he’s dipping the WP in acid!
216 there are pre chritmas “20% off” sale signs in very upmarket shops central london which i hav never seen in the last 10 years.
the rich arent spending, half the middle class are sh*t scared of spending and are trying to save like mad, the other half can’t afford to save and them and the poor are losing their jobs in large numbers. business activity has frankly ground to a near halt and no one is making any decisions. It is going to be a hugely dramatic and severe recession and to say otherwise is rather dishonest. The only people who are spending freely still are those in their early / mid 20’s who’s time horizon and priorities are booze, clubs and chinese imported clothes. nearly everyone else is holed in at home, hunkered down and not letting a penny go unaccounted for.
228. That’s just a re-hash of the lefty line ‘if alan johnson/david milliband etc etc was labour leader they’d be destroying feeble cameron by now’ that they’ve been pushing for months. The left cannot admit Cameron is a good tory leader.
228
Quite right. Down with the Tory Toffs. Up the Workers. No Pasaran!
The Tories have a lot of very detailed policy locked away ready for a GE… a campaign will not be easy for Labour who have over 10 years to pick apart.
I don’t think it matters if Brown goes this spring or in 12 months / Summer 2010. If there is a GE I just cannot see Labour winning.
Cameron’s election machine will be formidable. Don’t base assumptions on previous campaigns. Things have changed.
155. they have already tried that and it hasn’t been working. events are moving on.
159. if that is the idea, it is the wrong one. Cable may not have been perfect, but he has been seen to be suggesting positive ideas, and his stock has never been higher. obviously Brown has been acting as it is his job.
Osbourne’s absence from the airwaves has been incredible. how could it possibly be a good tactic or strategy?
218. It isn’t ‘tosh’ at all. Both are more experienced and both have the gravitas Osborne lacks. Hague who, along with Cameron, has the best public recognition of any Conservative politician and is clearly the man to articulate the right economic message, Davis is flawed but he also has an air of authority Osborne lacks and did very well as SHS.
Osborne may well know a great deal about the economic situation but that is irrelvant, he cannot convey it successfully. His background is a problem, it is difficult for him to appear in touch because he has been painted as a ‘toff’ and is tarnished by the oligarch affair. Yes that is unfair but sadly that’s the way it is.
[76, and probably others] - I don’t think you can sell this as an anti-SNP-government vote when their share of the vote went up by 13.1 percentage points.
For a governing party to increase its share of the vote is highly unusual, and in this case it appears that both did so! I suggest that people are still broadly happy with the SNP government in Holyrood, and that at least some people are rallying around the government at this time of crisis. It is surely no coincidence that the last by-election to see the governing party increase its share of the vote was Beaconsfield, in the midst of the Falkland’s War.
I think we are likely to see third party votes disappear, but in some places of course, it will be Labour or the Tories who are third placed. The Lib Dems may do well where they start in first and second places.
If this mood were to hold at the next GE, we could see Labour lose some seats even where they increase their vote share, and the same for the Tories, who after all took a seat last time when their vote share went down [on a large Lab->Lib Dem swing].
Of course, we’ve seen the political mood change markedly three times in the last 18 months. It could be 18 months until the next general election. Who knows what will happen before then.
221 But it didn’t surprise them. Jim Murphy said so last night. They realised it was on the cards but couldn’t be sure, as you never can in an election.
I suspect word gets out. Look at PoliticsHome’s conclusions.
Nearly every shop in nottingham is having a sale, a whole swathe are closing down. The amount of people wandering around town actually carrying shopping bags has dropped significantly. No-one has any money.
[241] - Not even did Labour and the SNP increase their vote shares, they also both managed to increase the actual number of voters compared to 2005 - remarkable for a by-election in November. It’s as though people think that their vote matters…
240. agree. one of his defensive spin lines about the yachting affair was “why would we have bothered soliciting small change like 50000 squid?”
not a great line in current economic circs.
170 I doubt that it’s Obama y’know - it’s the economy stupid! - and the SNP local council also had something to do with it.
I think the economy is now a positive for Labour, and it is quite possible that the worse things get the more positive it will become.
Why do I say that - 90% of people here see the economy as the key factor that will deliver Cameron a 1997-style landslide and many can hardly contain their glee as one awful statistic after another appears. But I think this is wrong.
But the opinion polls on economic competence have swung heavily in Labour’s favour even as the crisis has deepened. People are not convinced that Brown’s performance as Chancellor is the main cause of the problem. His sure-footed performance since the crisis broke has stunned everybody - me included - and it is possible that the disastrous period of October 2007 - September 2008 might have been an aberration in what, both before and since, has been a highly successful career.
When people (or banks) feel under threat they look to the state to protect them, and the Tory record on protecting the unemployed and dispossessed in the 1980s and 1990s is not inspiring. Of course it’s quite a long time ago now, but the vast majority of voters are old enough to remember that time (unlike, I suspect, the vast majority of Tories on pb) and no one who lived through that is likely to see the Tories as the party of the poor or the unemployed.
And the Tories have nothing to say on these subjects - they bang on about higher borrowing but this only reminds people of their desire to cut public expenditure at a time when increasing numbers of people (and banks) are going to rely on state support of one kind and another.
The Tories have allowed the view that they are heading for a 1997-style landslide to become commonplace. This was very unwise - even in 1997 no-one expected a 1997-style landslide - the consensus view was that Labour would have a majority of 30-50. They have thus masssively ramped up expectations so that a moderately good result for Labour is seen as a stunning triumph. Dealing with the deflation of this particular balloon will create problems for Cameron in the next few months.
213,235 re pre-Christmas sales and discounts. Yes. Point taken.
But for electoral purposes, the net effect is lower prices at the checkout which boosts support for the government.
The IMF report is an irrelevance because people don’t base their votes on medium-term economic forecasts. If the IMF is right then massive job losses will see Labour supporters turn against the government and Cameron will be Prime Minister. But it will be because the economy has gone pear shaped, not because the IMF said it would.
235 Indeed, take the 22 bus from London Piccadilly through Knightsbridge and Chelsea. There are ‘Sale’ and ‘Reduction’ signs EVERYWHERE. And these are prosperous and well heeled areas. If retail is hurting here, the mind truly boggles as to what is going on elsewhere. I fear things are going to get very bad.
239
According to YouGov, it has been working:
“… voters do seem to regard the Conservatives’ narrative of the financial crisis as being marginally more plausible than Labour’s. A formidable 75 per cent of voters believe Gordon Brown bears either “much of the responsibility for allowing lending and borrowing to get out of hand in the first place (34 per cent) or else at least “Some of the responsibility” (41 per cent). ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3285723/Financial-crisis-has-had-little-impact-on-Gordon-Browns-popularity.html
228 Roger you are obsessed with a university drinking clubs! crikey most people that went to uni were in drinking clubs of one sort or another and wore funny clothes and silly hats . it part of going to uni and its not that big a deal.
your sad obsession says more about you than the targets of your critisism. you come across as very po faced and very dull & colourless.
233.”At the time I thought he had played it well, offering co-operation, but as the first PMQs showed Brown wasn’t interested in non partisanship but in political survival.”
That was no surprise to me, nor I suspect was it any surprise to Cameron and Osborne at the time they took the decision they did. And Brown’s behaviour then did anything but tie them into that position long term. I said at the time that Brown would be the loser longer term by those actions, I still think that the downside of being seen to be opportunistic at the height of that crisis was too dangerous a position for the Tories to be left in. And I think that is why their polling figures have held up so well.
“The Conservative economic policy needs to be about recovery not today - about what they will do to manage the terrible economic inheritance they will get. That’s what Osborne should be developing. Cameron should be attacking Brown hard, using Brown’s own words and developing the responses to Brown’s tractor statistics.”
I think that the rest of your analysis is bang on the money right now. I cannot even remember anything about the comments of a certain Shadow Chancellor during the ERM meltdown, and most of the electorate will not even know that it was Gordon Brown or that he was even more wedded to the policy than some Tories.
246. This is exactly right but many people still don’t get it. It can’t get too bad for Gordon. Bad economic news plays very well to his meager strengths.
243
I was at, ‘Blue Water’ on Friday afternoon (a venture out of Wessex, to see relatives) the carpark was full and Marks & Spencers, (wife’s spiritual home) heaving, so someones spending.
p.s.
It took me an hour to get from the carpark to the Dartford tunnel!
57. there is an old adage in football betting: don’t bet on a team for which you cannot name at least three of their players……your inability to rise beyond daily mail stereotypes would suggest that you could adapt this when deciding whether to bet on Scottish elections……i’m very disappointed with the result this morning, but the some of the general ignorance and nonsense on here has made me laugh…….
247 You make a good point.
But the IMF report needs playing up. Gordon cannot be allowed to pass the buck to the US.
Furthermore, the effect of job losses is not confided to the unfortunate ones who lose them. The possibility alone is frightening.
If people feel their futures are in jeopardy because of Labour it is a problem, even if they escape the worst.
246 - It remains to be seen whether Brown can manage a long and hideous recession with the same aplomb the media believe he has shown in managing a machine-gun burst of unprecedented economic shocks over the last three months.
We’re not even at the end of the beginning of this thing, to mangle Churchill. Gordo’s ability to thrive in the face of a long, slow drip, drip, drip of bad news is at the heart of this. I would submit that the precedent for his performance during such circumstances (Sept 07 to Sept 08 - albeit on other varied issues rather than the economy) should not give Labour supporters undue cause for optimism.
Although naturally disappointed at the SNP setback last night (to my eyes-very unlike the USA result-this was a triumph of fear over hope in Scotland and therefore not very Obama like
I believe that the individual, on an earlier thread, who compared the result to the Garscadden by election of 1978 where Labour had a very similar result has something of a point.
In a UK context the consequences in 1978 of a Labour defeat of the SNP in that by election had no meaningful impact on the Tories and clearly did not prevent Margaret Thatcher coming to power in 1979. The reduction of Scottish representation to 59 seats from 72 also has further decreased Scotland’s influence on the outcome of a general election.
Given the SNP remain in power in Holyrood, the consequences for the SNP are likely to be much less severe than in the seventies, although the FPTP nature of Westminster elections may now blunt their advance at a general election. The SNP have a realistic chance of outpolling Labour in the Euro elections of next year given Euro elections normally result in the strongest results for the SNP.
Incidentally a few people have criticised Stuart Dickson for not being online here-please note that he indicated some weeks ago that he was away for a considerable period and so he has not been posting for weeks.
Crossland @ 221 re why the result was a surprise.
Lack of voter ID may explain Labour but surely not SNP getting their predictions wrong.
251. There is a big difference between being opportunistic and telling the people what they need to hear. Brown has been allowed to get away with murder in the past few weeks. The Conservatives cannot stand by whilst Brown exploits the situation and expect that the everybody will suddenly come to their senses and the narrative will flip again. Their job is to oppose.
Clearly a disastrous result for Labour. For the principal party of opposition to have its majority slashed in one of its safest seats by the governing party, which has been leaden footed and gaffe prone during the recent economic meltdown is nothing short of catastrophic for Brown. Unfortunately for us friends of Labour, Brown has wiped out all opposition to his leadership (his only success to date), so it’s difficult to see where the party goes from here. Deeply depressing!
Very Good Piece by Robert Peston on BBC website today: “Credit and credibility”. He says,
“The Bank of England has some explaining to do.
In September, it said there was a case for raising interest rates - that there was a risk inflation would remain above the 2% target.
Since then, the Bank of England has cut interest rates by two full percentage points, including today’s cut of 1.5 per cent …..
How could inflation be the worry in September and a deep dark recession be the fear today?
Is it possible that just two months ago the Bank of England failed to assess properly the weakness of the economy.
This really matters - because the Bank of England’s success for a decade after 1997 in controlling inflation and providing a firm foundation for stable economic growth stemmed in part from its credibility.
It succeeded because the important economic players - businesses, employees and consumers - negotiated to set prices on the basis that the Bank’s judgement about the outlook for inflation was probably right.
If the Bank’s judgement were no longer trusted, its ability to do its job - to control inflation - would also be seriously impaired.”
He goes on to say:
“But the IMF is also predicting that the performance of the UK will be the worst of the developed economies - which puts more pressure on the Bank of England to explain why it was inappropriate to make such a cut in interest rates rather earlier in the autumn.”
The BoE has not emerged from the current crisis at all well in my opinion, and need to be included in root-and-branch reform of financial regulations in this country.
253 Bluewater might have been heaving but M&S’s profits are hugely down, other retailers are reporting bad returns, companies that thrived in boom times like Ghost and Royal Worcester have gone to the wall.
This is the Christmas before the bust, perhaps the last hurrah for conspicuous consumption for a while. The January credit card bills and dark winter days coinciding with the third quarter of recession will hammer home that it’s over for many.
94 I feel just the same. Sometimes politics is so frustrating.
The only things I can think of to explain people moving back to Labour are that they like a dour Scottish voice in a crisis and that they’re very easily swayed by the tone set by papers and TV news.
Five Live’s news this morning, first item: Brown insists banks pass on rate cut. Despite him not having any actual power over it, despite it probably not being in banks’ interests due to the rate they can borrow at, despite Brown having got us into this mess and despite it being the Bank that sets rates not government, this news item comes across to the average person as “Brown sticks up for ordinary people against nasty banks”.
To give Brown his due as a politician, he’s proving remarkably hard to pin down. Somehow the attacks don’t quite stick. Grrr!
Classic stuff from the BBC today of course. Yesterday, nothing to be seen anywhere about Glenrothes. Had to wait til 10:20 on News at Ten just for 2 ultra-basic questions to John Pienaar. Today when Labour have won, of course it’s the first item on the BBC news website. Shameless.
258, 221 What is surprising, in hindsight, is the movement of the betting markets toward the SNP in the last few days. I had assumed that this was based on information from within both campaigns about the likely result. The size of the majority is so big that people on the ground must have been aware by last weekend that a Labour victory was a strong possibility, even if they didn’t say so in public for obvious reasons. Could the SNP have inspired people to place bets just to move the odds and try to get a bandwagon going?
253 - Bluewater will always be heaving. It’s not a good indicator of trading conditions, and bears very little relation to the average High Street, which must be hurting now. Scary.
261. Peston’s comments are odd. He seems to be suggesting that a slow realisation of the deflationary dangers now upon us means that the BoE will struggle to control inflation in the future. Apart from being theoretically dubious, it’s pretty irrelevant as well given that rising inflation is unlikely to be an issue for some years now. I think this is just another regurgitation of Labour spin lines, with an attempt at adding a theoretical gloss.
263, Comrade Robinson’s blog shows he thinks Brown is ‘Extraordinary’.
“Gordon Brown has re-written the textbooks for leaders in crisis. It was never before thought helpful for leaders in trouble to organise a global economic crisis.”
[Is this good enough? Nick.]
[Yes, now swallow. There's a good girl.]
Last paragraph:
“However, what matters in politics is momentum and narrative. This was scheduled to have been the week when the voters of Glenrothes declared “It’s time for a change”. Instead, by casting what politicians like to call “real votes in real ballot boxes” they have confirmed that the Brown bounce is real.”
Uh, if they voted against the SNP, incumbent government in Scotland and council in the constituency, you could read it as change either way.
Earlier Robinson states:
“Even yesterday, on the day of voting, Labour MPs were convinced they’d lost and the SNP did nothing to downgrade expectations of the political earthquake which Alex Salmond had once predicted.”
They managed expectations brilliantly, but apparently Red Robbo’s rose-tinted glasses aren’t working well enough for him to see that, even now.
[138] - “Oh, and no sign of Mr Dickson this morning?”
Mr Dickson took his leave of the site a week or so ago. No indication that he’d had precognition of what was to come in Glenrothes though.
261 The received wisdom was that BoE independence was a good thing. In fact in both here and in the USA under Greenspan central bankers reducing interest rates too far in what were essentially boom times has been ONE of the main causes of the current crisis.
263 re BBC bias. You do know there are laws restricting what can be reported while the polls are open?
262
I think the writing was on the wall for Royal Worcester Spode long before this crisis.
As for Marks, Mrs Coldstone will do her utmost to boost their profits.
When the initial shock of the, ‘downturn’ has worn off, there’ll be an upside, (harsh but true) lots of buying opportunities.
As for the pain of the recession, remember the wise words of Lord Lamont, ‘If it ‘aint hurting it ‘aint working’
270, I’ve read criticism (can’t recall where, sorry) that Roy was the only candidate featured during an earlier report by the BBC. Apparently this wasn’t biased though.
O/T
Brown smacked down the ‘SuperCasinos’ as one of his first acts.
He is addicted to oppressive legislation.
What are his attitudes to Gambling?
What would a Labour 4th term promise?
Although I thought a SNP win was more likely than not, it’s not that surprising that Labour won. If they couldn’t hold on to seats like this what could they hold on to?
There won’t be a general election this year because of the poor weather. Maybe Spring next year, but by then the gloss would have worn off this by-election hold and more bad polls have convinced Brown to wait.
People might not blame Brown completely for this, but as things get worse and Brown’s efforts do nothing to help they’ll want a change.
267 There was a clear discrepancy between Jon Craig’s blog and his presentation last night.
In his blog he claimed Labour were spinning but last night he went for ‘no one, not even ministers expected them to win’.
Morris Dancer @ 267 re Red Robbo. For the umpteenth time, Nick Robinson ran the Young Conservatives. Doing his job does not make Robinson a red.
Morning All!!!
Firstly, congratulations to the PHI100 - they win this round, and made the punters look silly. Lots of egg on faces, more pride lost than money, I hope. My personal disastrous history of betting on UK by-elections stopped me from placing more than £10, so I’m looking ok this morning!
This is a great result for Labour - to win a by-election in the middle of your third term is impressive, to do so when the economy is tanking and there are huge job layoffs in the Scottish FS sector is more so, to increase votes absolutely and as a % on the last GE is incredible. Simply brilliant result for them - will be a little overshadowed (unless they shout loudly, as is the government’s prerogative) but had they held it earlier, I think this would have been much harder to win.
This isn’t a bad result for the SNP - they increased 13% off a vicious and well-fought campaign by Labour, and proved they can take votes from the Lib Dems and the Tories, not just far left Labour switchers. They will be disappointed (and maybe a little more humble!) but this is still an ok result for them.
The Conservatives, and even more so the Lib Dems, will be disappointed. Their vote collapsed, and they were humiliated. They had low expectations, and missed. Not a huge problem when you are so unlikely to win, but both should be using these difficult seats to exceed very low expectations to build momentum.
This is the same Brown revival that started when the markets started going south. ADvice to Conservatives (still) is keep quiet and out of the way, and keep your less attractive personalities out of the limelight - you know who I mean. Sit tight, and shut up.
Labour has some momentum, and the media appreciate the change because of the variety it gives. They like Brown this month, so if the Tories pipe up, they will be shot at. They should wait for Brown’s popularity to wane (not crash, wane) and then start raising the volume in March or so, in time for the media to want another change in narrative, time for Christmas bills and lack of credit to bite again, and still in time to run away with the Local and European elections, proving that nothing has really changed in the last year. Sit tight and shut up until March.
The only way this is a bad strategy, is if all the most vocal Tories are wrong and Brown lacks bottle. The way this strategy goes horribly wrong is if BRown calls an election in Feb/March. AFter months of radio silence, gearing up to win in 17 days would be tricky. So, if you think Brown has courage, treat my advice with caution. If you think Brown is a bottler, CCHQ should shut up and sit tight for four months.
Labour - run wth this, ride the momentum, pray to the deity (or lack thereof) of your choice, and hope you can get to a polling defecit inside the MoE by late Feb, then call a snap election.
276 - It was, I believe, the YCs themselves who coined the Red Robbo nickname.
274 Actually why not go for an election now. Accident prone Mr Bean
has now become spring a surprise Brown and the oppo parties are flailing in his wake. I can see no better time than right now pre-Christmas in the wake of Obama and Glenrothes and before things turn really nasty next year.
Another difference between Glasgow East and Glenrothes is the circumstances that led to the byelection.
In one case, the whiff of corruption. In the other, death through asbestosis contracted as an indutrial worker.
Still, very well done Labour. It is a remarkably good result in the third term in the middle of a recession.
138 - David, I’m still very sorry for being so confident that Georgia would be close. It never quite got as close as I thought it would. My bad call - apologies.
On ‘who loses?’ - I do. I lost several hundred on the VP markets (95% on Joe Biden), and I lose every bet I ever make on UK by-elections.
Most of the money I lose is hedging too conservatively, or going for stupid long-odds bets for no better reason than marginal value and bragging rights if they come off (ECV tie, John Reid for leader, Bloomberg for VP).
I set a big target for this year, and got about 70% of the way there. If I had called the VP markets right, I would have exceeded my target by 10%. Not trying to create a distorted impression, but I’m much happier talking about great bets won than lost!!
I think Labour were surprised by the result. They thought they had lost despite the spinning that went on in the days before the election. In the cold light of day it now appears that the 101% total negative campaign against perceived injustices to home care charges was the issue. It was a mini referendum on it. Not many saw that coming. Despite this the SNP did put 13% on the 2005 vote. They cannot run a half positive/half negative campaign. Perhaps they have to stoop to the level Labour decended to. I think a cold bucket of water may do them good as Jim Sillars said on TV last night. For the Tories is was a poor result as according to UK opinion polls they are away ahead of Labour. For the LibDems - losing their deposit but seeing nearly all your vote melt away is a wake up call to them as well.
re 262 I am not so sure. For many, disposable income is rising for the first time in a while, as income tax is cut and some prices actually fall. The govt has made it clear it will max out on borrowing. There’s going to be a generational transfer - from future to present - to deal with this recession. (I have mixed feelings about that, but it’s certainly going to keep up public spending.)
I think it’s highly unpredictable how it will pan out in 2009 - could start to bounce back by summer, could be miserable throughout the year and beyond. I am wary of those who think they know.
There will be no election this year, people! I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life.
If he calls one the opposition will rightly ask, “Whatever happened to ‘I’m just getting on with the job’?”
262 Conspicuous consumption gone for ever, I think
285. Laughable
277. Good post. I would disgree slightly on the radio silence bit. I agree wrestling the narrative may fail and possibly be counter productive. But Cameron needs to keep the vote share around 40 to ensure Brown isn’t pushed from behind.
M&S turnover dropped around 6%. It is difficult to see this marginal change on a particular visit to a store.
The impact of the recession is less noticeable than on building sites where activity seems to have stopped.
“Gosh! last night must remind you of Southall and Enfield, do you still bear the scars?”
Somehow, I don’t think Test was expecting us to win Glenrothes.
I have mixed feelings about this. It would have been nice to see Labour lose, but then it’s also nice to see the wheels fall off the SNP bandwagon in Scotland. It will certainly wipe the smirk off Mr. Toad’s face.
Brown won’t call a snap election, it would make him look opportunistic and give the tories a major opening to smash them for looking more at their own political fortunes then the welfare of the country.
Great, great post Morus at 277 - you have tempted me to post again for the first time in weeks.
My own view is that the Mandelson return was the beginning of a strategy to hold a spring ‘09 election to get in when fear of recession is at it’s height yet before the reality of job losses and house reposessions means that the electorate are in the mood for blame.
There is a window to do that this spring, the pain is anticipated but not that real at the moment and the entire Nu Lab strategy is built around the ‘better the devil you know in a crisis’ sentiment that is their best hope. If Brown waits till ‘10 the public will be ready to blame him; if he goes earlier they may not.
I never under estimate the extent to which Brown/ Blair Labour was forged out of the 1992 defeat, which occurred against a similar backdrop.
I can’t help thinking that deep down Brown still wants to re-visit the ‘92 contest and this time win it.
Oi! Enough of the “we punters got it wrong” humble-pie ashes-on-head chest-baring bullshit.
Some of us got it right. Not least - ME!!
The evidence was there - with those with eyes to see it. The strange shift from “others” in a poll a few weeks ago - towards Labour. The dip in support for Scottish independence. The recent poll that ACTUALLY SHOWED Labour surging back into first place in Scottish Westminster intentions. The fact that Brown went to Fife himself, which, as said upthread, he would only do if he knew he had a very good chance.
Add in the blatant Labour expectations-management - take a bow Ben Brogan, and Nick Palmer (no, surely not, say it ain’t so!) - and it was fairly apparent who would win.
I advised people to pile on Labour at 3/1 some time back. If I wasn’t such a pathetic ladywipe I’d have placed a bet myself and I’d be rich today, rather than just irritatingly smug.
Lessons from the result? The Tories have a number of problems. Osborne is just the start of it. We can return to this happy subject soon.
Fantastic result. But first of all apologies for getting it wrong. While the BBC did misquote me by attributing to me that the SNP had it in the bag (I said “many observers” or something) I did think so myself. The feedback on my own visit was hard to read, as reported at the time, but having spent three days up there I felt I’d done my bit and left phone canvassing to others, all of whom that I talked to (five MPs) said it was extremely heavy going and they really didn’t think we were going to make it. I don’t know who is on the PH100 panel, but the people I talked to certainly weren’t. I’m delighted to be wrong, of course, but I’m sorry that my second-hand impressions gained more weight than they deserved. One thing I don’t apologise for is my criticism of CLPs who completely neglect canvassing - the rest of us snatched the fat from the fire this time, but…
A few comments on the thread.
1. Is there a special factor about core Labour seats?
No. I think it was David Herdson who pointed out that party votes in all areas is made up of people with a range of loyalty from core to fleeting, and a safe seat merely has more of them. Crewe and Glasgow showed that safe seats are just as vulnerable when Labour is unpopular; Glenrothes shows that in a crunch Labour is able to return to its GE level (and indeed 3% above it). The GE level isn’t enough, though, if the Tories get 40%+, which takes us to:
2. Is the result irrelevant for the Tories?
Hardly. Up to last night it was generally agreed that the SNP were the more formidable opponents for Labour, since Salmond was getting good ratings and they had a positive story to tell. The Tories have been playing a long game, and been notably quiet recently. It’s unlikely that they could do better in an English seat than the SNP is a Scots one unless they raise their game.
3. What does this tell us about turnout at the next GE?
It’s going to be massively up. How many by-elections match GE turnout on a drizzling November night? And we can expect a huge squeeze on the perceived third parties in each seat.
4. The ground war
Because of the Crewe and Glasgow results, there’s been a bit of a myth about the ground war - the opposition parties invincibly good, Labour shambolic. I don’t think there’s a huge difference, actually - all the parties are capable of a hard-fought professional campaign, but you can only do so much if the narrative is against you. We’ve all been guilty of underestimating each other on an anecdotal basis - e.g. the chap here who drew conclusions from spending 20 minutes watching movements around one of the Labour offices. I’ve done it too (’I only saw one Tory canvass team’ etc.). Anecdotes are enjoyable, but they’re still anecdotes.
278 Quite right. Nick Robinson was very hostile to Mrs. Thatcher as a YC activist, which is how he acquired the nickname “Red Robbo”.
Calling an early election is like calling a referendum - you’d better be 100% certain of the result…
Yes but the argument about being seen to be “getting on with the job” will apply just as much in Feb/Mar next year. So why not go for one now before Christmas and before the Feb/March bills, council tax increases etc roll in. Reality will hit very early in the New Year - you can be sure of that. It will all be about redundancies after Christmas.
re 281 So why do you keep going for those long shots, Morus!
I prefer ’short shots’ because I bet mainly for fun with small amounts i.e. just to see if I can win the game. Shame I didn’t put I bit more on this week, ’cause running 7-0 (Indiana, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Glenrothes and Missouri which ever way it goes). Turned ‘em into no lose positions but I was very lucky to do so in Georgia - for some reason, hedged soon after taking what looked to me like generous Obama odds. Not long after, it became clear he wasn’t really in contention.
What makes your hedging ‘too conservative’?
Well well, lot’s of understandably jubilant Labour supporters on here this morning and some seriously disappointed Tories (myself included).
This is certainly a very good result for Labour and well above anyone expectations including their own. Obviously this was a safe Labour seat and next door to the PM’s constituency but anti-Labourites shouldn’t be churlish in underestimates the success of the Labour campaing here and the personal boost this will give Mr Brown.
What lessons can we draw from this for the big picture? Obviously, Labour has had a good deal of success in shoring up its core vote, as was indicated by the rises in Labour support in recent opinion polls. Whether Labour has or will get beyond core vote remains to be seen and it needs to start making more inroads into the Conservative vote.
If this represents the high watermark for the SNP then that is obviously good for Labour in Scotland, especially if we continue to see an erosion of the Lib Dem vote in the country. A Labour wipeout at the GE depended to a considerable extent on it losing seats in Scotland, primarily (though not exclusively) to the SNP. If Labour has shored up its position in Scotland then that makes David Cameron’s job in England and Wales a lot more challenging if he is to win a working majority.
As has already been pointed out, the Conservatives’ problem is that they no longer have a presence in Scotland and are therefore relying on others to do their work for them. This makes it hard for the Tories to make the running.
Mr Brown is proving that he is able to present himself well in a crisis and the Conservatives’ narrative on the economy is in need of a great deal of shaprening. They also need to actually start presenting some solutions and to get ahead of the curve: difficult but not impossible. Mr Brown has successfully hammered home the ’started in America’ narrative and the ‘Gordon saved the banks’ narrative and is trying to do the same with falling interest rates. I’m sure he will use the lowest interests rates for 50 years at next week’s PMQs as evidence of his handling of the economy.
The PBR and the Budget, however, are crucial to Labour’s fortunes. Their ratings fell like a stone after Darling’s budget in March. Mr Brown needs to be careful not to be too clever by half as he ususally is in his budgets. His arrogance and hubristic nature are his biggest faults and the budget offers both an opportunity for him and a huge booby trap. I think the Britain is best prepared line may still come to haunt him in the coming months.
All in all, a great night for Labour and we Tories shouldnt begrudge them their day in the sun, but one swallow doesn;t make a summer and the next election will be fought on whether the nation wants another five years of Gordon Brown and Labour. I, for one, am hoping, praying and believing they don’t!
Roger “I have a blood test every month or so”
Have they ever found any? I just assumed you ran on pure Moet….
276 - Red Robbo does have a perceived tilt in his political reporting. Not as bad as Marr. Or most of the Today team. Or Newsnight.
On the other hand, ITN’s Tom Bradby, ‘the man that Robinson never was’ seems to be a neutral and even handed reporter.
301.. praying and believing…isnt that wishful thinking.
Morning all.
Hmm, well that was a surprise. In betting terms, we shouldn’t have got things that badly wrong, should we? As I posted last night, I smelt a rat at around 8pm yesterday (because of what looked like Labour spin and also SNP supporters being suspiciously quiet), but was too slow to lay off my modest position. So I’ve lost a few quid. Oh well. Also, a lesson for betting: Don’t back favourites when there’s no solid evidence. In contrast with the US election, where we had lots of good polling information, we really had nothing much here.
As for the political implications: Clearly a big boost for Brown, and for Labour morale. Brown’s position looks very solid now, I would say. A Spring 2009 election? Maybe.
Beyond that, it’s hard to tell. Labour were able to portray this as a kick in the teeth for the SNP council and Holyrood administration, so that makes it hard to interpret more widely. Tactical voting may have been an issue as well. Perhaps the most striking figure is the ratio between the SNP and LibDem votes:
2005: SNP got 1.85 times as many as LibDems
2008: SNP got 14 times as many as LibDems
301 With a splash of anti Tory venom.
just off now to pick up my winnings
um, nick p, on your second point we have in fact already had a by-election in a safe Labour seat in England. If you really think the picture in England has changed, is there any wish for a 2009 GE?
Following on from 302: Everyone is saying this is about Labour shoring up their core vote - but did some of those extra Labour votes come from former LibDem voters?
When I go to the bookies today, I will find out the odds on Gideon not being shadow chan by June 2010.. I will report back
309 - I think there is also some suggestion, is there not, that some of Labour’s votes came from Unionist Tories voting tactically against the SNP?
299. It’s not Mike because, as indicated above, he’s on holiday
299 Careful. Roger is a man of the people - his veins are filled with Bitter, or Riggers tea.
@ 292
Lessons from the result? The Tories have a number of problems.
How’s that? They were never going to be competitive in this seat. It was a fight between Labour and the SNP. Labour could have been beaten but still do well in England at the next GE. Similarly the fact Labour won does not mean they will avoid massive losses in England.
====
@ 293
Crewe and Glasgow showed that safe seats are just as vulnerable when Labour is unpopular
Yes, but even in a GE defeat you have to hold on to some seats. If you can’t win in Scotland next to Brown’s seat, where can you win? Hold some more by-elections in England and we’ll see what happens.
It’s unlikely that they could do better in an English seat than the SNP is a Scots one unless they raise their game.
There’s no logic behind that. The SNP are in government in Scotland and controlled the local council - they couldn’t blame local troubles on Westminster. I always thought the SNP’s appeal was limited because they advocate little more than independence.
But the Tories want to form a national government and can’t be seen as the incumbants in any respect. The facts clearly show that even at the last GE election they had more support in England than Labour, which will only get better. Also the Tories don’t need to bag seats as safe as Glenrothes in England to form a majority government (which you surely know, Nick).
Morning all,
Isn’t it lovely to see Labour win something?
I’ve noticed the site has some new labour posters this morning and the tories seem to be keeping their heads down.
I wonder if Salmond might not be better to kick the Independence referedum into the long grass.
It could prove to be a millstone at the next GE, especailly if Scotland sees a Tory win as an excuse to kick things off.
297 - I keep going for them because they are fun. I get very little pleasure from odds-on victories. “I predicted something that was more likely than not to happen, and won less money than I risked” - no fun at all for me!
When one comes off, it pays for all the others and then some (the covering ‘just in case’ £10 bet at 90 on betfair on Hillary to win the New hampshire Primary - other punters on here got odds of over 100), and the bragging rights are huge. My ECV tie was poor value, but it is something of particular interest to me, and I couldn’t not bet on it. Same with putting £5 on myself to be Obama’s VP pick. Spreads and main markets are for making money, but that’s only half the reason I do this.
I can be too conservative, and hedge off too soon. I had 33/1 on Sarah Palin, and laid it off on Betfair at 12, because I thought Troopergate would thwart her. In reality, I could have waited until it fell to 6/1 (as was likely) or just kept it until the decision was made, but I had lost out heavily on Biden and was feeling risk averse. That ‘cost’ me money, because I laid Palin at 12 when I could have not done. That eats into my winnings and means someone else is winning at my expense.
Obviously, there’s someone (bookmakers often) who are losing the big odds, but I am mid-food chain myself - I feed off the whales, but other punters feed off me. I was just answering the pint that everyone on here talks about winnings, and if we are all winning who is losing - my answer was, oftentimes, I both win and lose.
Top result for Labour. It was my initial prediction that they would win, tho the punters here persuaded me otherwise as the election dragged on.
I think several factors came in to play;
-This is Brown’s backyard and the public there have a sense of loyalty to the guy. His family have been here for yonks and so has he.
-Mrs Brown got stuck in as well, and I think Mrs Brown helped decontaminate the contempt for Brown, just like at his speech.
-Labour ran a good campaign and have been performing better nationally.
-The electorate here are not the same as Glasgow East. I suspect that they are better educated less underclass, but still traditional working class background that Glas East.
-Lindsay Roy was a local candidate well known, if a little unsteady at first. however, quite a good anti-politician.
-SNP caught up by their own record
311 I think there is also some suggestion, is there not, that some of Labour’s votes came from Unionist Tories voting tactically against the SNP? I somehow doubt that was significat. Firstly the Tory vote was smaller to start with, so wouldn’t have made much difference. Secondly, it didn’t collapse as spectacularly as the LibDems.
re 315 Remarkably - given I am not known to say a good word about our Tory posters - I think it’s a bit unfair to generalise about the Tories keeping their heads down. A number have been on site.
[298] - “Mr Brown needs to be careful not to be too clever by half as he ususally is in his budgets.”
Agreed. The mythology surrounding Brown was always that he was a master strategist, and much criticism of him here was that he was a ditherer who couldn’t take quick decisions. The evidence of the past year or two is that when he has an opportunity to plot something in advance [eg 10p tax] he balls it up completely, but that when he is responding to an event in a crisis [eg Bank bailout] he manages to come up smelling of roses.
Brown is still his own worst enemy. Perhaps he should let Darling write the budget.
315 ‘Tories seem to be keeping their heads down.’
Do they?
I really should not be here.
318 Yes to all that.
322 - Me neither. Sorry.
322 Me neither. Mind you, I must do some work!
322 - I think they mean Tories are posting the same as usual, Labour are leaping on the greatness of only a 5% swing away from them (their best result for some time) and posting like whirling, spinning dervishes.
If ever there was an advert for letting the jocks have their independence it is this election result.
322 Very perceptive.
I think he makes immediate decisions better because he has to be pushed around by others and they get a say.
I suspect the level of invovement of others is dependent on his own confidence levels. Right now I think he will think he can cope on his own.
re 317 thanks. Insightful. Wholly different psychology to me. I enjoy getting a small return on something I am fairly sure will happen (often the move in the price rather than the actual outcome). It’s about spotting the very low risk opportunity. I only got into this years ago ’cause I noticed a 20% return was available within a week or two on Ken Livingstone for Mayor, when by then I had him 95%+ to win!
[309] - Yes, as Nick P points out at [293] the turnout is likely to go up, people really feel that it matters now who they vote for. In that situation they are likely to look at who is first and second in their seat and vote between that choice. Third party votes - like the Lib Dems in Glenrothes - will suffer.
This may benefit the Lib Dems in some places though, and it’s a shame for them they didn’t make more of an effort to build up second places in Labour seats at the 2005 general election.
321 - “Brown is still his own worst enemy”
Not while Charles Clarke is alive, he isn’t.
317 - I like the thrill of the long odds too. Sadly, I am very bad at picking them (indeed I can’t think of a single genuinely long odds bet I have won). It is odd that the fun is in the long odds, but (for me anyway) any money I make is in the short odds (e.g. consistently backing Obama in Indiana as the count progressed on Tuesday night).
330.Or John Reid, Frank Field etc….
322. You don’t count, you’re always here. The thread just seems to be a little quieter than normal.
330. hoho
298 Thank you - so refreshing to read a Tory post that consists of measured and well-argued points and not merely abuse and playground-level insults to those who do not share their views.
332.”The thread just seems to be a little quieter than normal.”
Its Friday, there has been an American Presidential election and a Westminster by election, and again it really is Friday.
“tories keeping their heads down”
WTF? I can’t see nothing but Tories - either greeting or keening (to continue the Scottish theme).
316. Independence is finished for a generation, it caught a very bad chill the night Lehman Brothers went down, this turned into a rheumatic fever when HBOS was taken over, and last night the physic was summoned to the sickroom, whence he emerged with sombre mien and murmurs about “keeping the patient comfortable”.
It’s over. If Salmond manages to call his referendum in 2010 it will be lost, and lost badly, humiliating or even splitting his party, and shunting the next vote into the very distant future. Salmond will want to avoid the vote at all costs. But his diehard activists will want a referendum come what may.
What will he do? Very tricky.
That is the problem for essentially single issue parties like the SNP. Eventually the issue comes up - and if the electorate say No - you’re f*cked.
329 The third party squeeze may be a ‘third person here’ squeeze, but this may not help the LibDems in Scotland as they seem so supportive of Labour, they only provide a vehicle for those who want to tactically back Labour when they are nowhere. I suspect the LDs have squeezed all the juice out of that particular orange already and can’t hope for it to improve their position.
The anti Government vote will want to go somewhere and they may find themselves leapfrogged.
Since the SNP are in Government aswell, it could all be very confusing????
“330. You don’t count, you’re always here. The thread just seems to be a little quieter than normal”
G, we’re on our 300 and something-th post, and its 11.20am.
You may wish to believe the Tories are shrinking and cowering in the face of adversity, but they’re not. They’re on here, alive and kicking, if a little cheesed-off.
[334] - I wouldn’t be so sure. Salmond’s plan has appeared to be to wait until there is a Tory government at Westminster before calling a referendum. That may yet change the political dynamic again.
Glenrothes was always a fight between the SNP and Labour. A Tory view on the outcome of Glenrothes is like a red-blooded male commenting on a two-woman cat-fight in a paddling pool of trifle…full of intriguing possiblity, but not involving.
re 329 well it could hardly go down from the desirory efforts of the last two general elections. I have my doubts it will reach the 78% of 1992 though, even with every Mr Patel in the country posting in his vote, and his wife’s, and children’s, and mother-in-law’s, and next door neighbour’s granny’s and Uncle Tom Cobely’s and all.
It is a good result for Labour in the middle of a third term in a recession to deny that is churlish in the extreme.
As in 90-91 a similar result for the Conservatives would have been good.
Nevertheless its still all Camerons Conservatives to lose.
The only chance of that is if the voters percieve a left of centre government would be more preferable in hard times, to a right of centre more indivualistic approach.
In 79 the left were seen as the problem,in 2010, the Government/public sector/Unions more collective solutions, could be seen as part of the solution.
However Cameron is a formidable opponent and their best leader since 1990.
Therefore I dont expect Conservative supporters to wake up with terrible hangover in April 2010, like Labour supporters did in April 92 wondering if they could ever win again.
334 Salmond could copy Gordon and send it out for review.
Then promise not to act on it until they have reported on the 12th of Never.
Meanwhile Scotland is essentially a left wing country. But everyone needs an alternative. The LibDems seem lost.
A nationalistic left wing party fighting London from within the Union could work.
Credit to the Tories contributing today - they’re almost without exception accepting it’s a good result for us, and taking it in good part.
A couple of snippets I noticed in a Guardian report:
———
I saw people coming out to vote for Labour who haven’t voted for 20 years. I need to think about that,” said Tricia Marwick, the SNP MSP who won the equivalent Scottish parliament seat of Central Fife from Labour last year.
Peter Murrell, the SNP’s chief executive, said: “The sharpness of some of the negative material shows there was some serious brains being in by Labour.” .
——-
The first is interesting because it addresses the ‘certainty to vote’ issue. We’re all used to seeing people who identify with Labour telling pollsters they probably won’t vote, producing a paper majority in most polls. They get largely or entirely discounted. If it’s a high turnout GE, perhaps that will change.
The second suggests new hands at work. I’ll leave it to others to speculate about where the bright ideas might be coming from.
Incidentally, I didn’t see any leaflet that I was embarrassed to deliver (as I’ve been once or twice in the past) - there was highly critical stuff but nothing personal about the SNP candidate or anything that wasn’t truthful as far as it went (they simply focused on the people who lost out from the care charge changes).
[335] - I agree that Scotland really does seem to be a different place now, and not a very hospitable one for Lib Dems.
I know the partisan Tories are fond of tying the Lib Dems together with Labour, but that can also work to the Lib Dems advantage. I could see people wanting rid of Labour, and preferring a Lib Dem to a Tory, particularly if the Lib Dems already have a local presence.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5105877.ece
Brown seems to have killed off chances for an early election (at least within the next six months in my view).
335 Sally C - Yes, I think you are right. It is remarkable that the LibDems went from 4728 in 2005 to 947 yesterday. Understanding where those voters - nearly 4000 of them - went, and why, may be key to understanding what’s going on. The anti-Iraq vote factor fading? Tactical voting? Wanting to kick the SNP? Charles Kennedy factor? Confused LibDem messages? I have no idea, but I’d be interested if anyone with local knowledge could provide an insight.
266 runnymede
I wish I could share your optimism about inflation. Slashing interest rates recklessly is hugely dangerous, adding fuel to the fire started by the multi-billion bailouts. the amounts of money sloshing aroud in the economy is getting dangerously high.
I just do not understand why the solution to too much debt is to make debt cheaper and easier to obtain. That is just insane.
All the main political parties called for interest rate cuts , I think they are all dangerously and completely wrong. Inflation is in real danger of coming back with a vengeance within 18 months.
Ponzi Brown’s only hope is to restart the inflationary fires, particularly in the housing market, and it seems like he will stop at nothign to repump the bubble. We have seen yesterday how easily fooled the stupid electorate is. God I am depressed today.
It’s quite busy on here today (has been all week) but it seems quieter because so many people have got used to the idea (true or false) that the PB.com Tories are ‘triumphalist’.
Today, most of the posts are analytical, muted, reflective or about betting, and the exuberance is more red than blue. Because we have slightly fewer reds than blues, the site seems a little quieter, even thought it is quite busy, and there are in fact plenty of Tories about.
187. Gaz, what a load of tripe you posted, in our dreams do we get better than England, you have obviously never been to Scotland and get your information from Telegraph or similar. Grow up.
321 Response to the bank crisis was not initiated by Brown but by Standard Chartered, the Treasury, Darling and Vadera - doesn’t go against your point that he does badly strategically as this wasn’t his work. His weakness is his partisanship and game playing.
What he does do well is take the credit personally and change history to support his latest actions - so the 10p tax payment in September made to cut off rebellion is now presented (both internally and to international audiences) as fiscal stimulation. He has been flying around the world selling himself as the guru with the answers to resolve to resolve the crisis. Campbell and Mandelson have repeated what they did with Blair to create the international statesman. It’s been well carried out. The re-organisation of the way Downing Street is run has been an advantage.He has the right manner to front a a crisis - the serious man for serious times - providing his team provide the answers.
The problem though is summed up by the piece I posted earlier “that he still doesn’t really understand what is happening in the world and is pushing barren remedies for its underlying woes.” That will be found out.
Another Tory writes:
Just got back in. I don’t have a job so I am unable to sit in front of the computer all day, on this site.
343 The Lib Dems tying themselves to Labour is like tying yourself to the man in concrete shoes as he is thrown into the river.
Richard - they mostly went to the SNP. That’s the big news here.
Glasgow East was two parallel contests: SNP v Labour, and LibDem v Tory - two separate electorates, with not too much cross over from one contest to the other.
This was different. Unless haf the electorate changed party, Labour got the same people out now as in 2005, and Conservatives (Unionists?!) and LibDems were prepared to vote SNP - either because they desperately wanted Labour out, or because they liked what they had seen of the SNP government.
Being in government has conferred on the nationalist parties of Scotland and Wales a legitimacy and seniority that they didn’t have in 2005. I think people who never considered voting for a ‘minor party’ (ie not Big 3) are coming around to the idea that there are 4 main parties in their country, and that actually they share more with the nationalist party they never considered than the bigger parties they supported tactically to beat the government of the day.
344 ‘Getting on with the job’
Bugg£r.
337. But it doesn’t matter who is in power in London: the Scots clearly don’t want independence, full stop.
A couple of years ago I was genuinely worried for the Union, but about three months back I realised my anxiety was bollocks - Scots will only vote for separation in the most absolutely and incredibly propitious of circumstances, and even then they probably wouldn’t vote for it.
But for it to happen, they’d need:
1. a favourable and booming economy (no one votes for risk in a downturn),
2. a much disliked righting Tory government in London,
3. a brilliant and capable leader in Holyrood,
4. a consistently high price for oil and plenty of oil left,
5. no question marks over their membership of the EU,
6. a clear policy over the euro/sterling etc.
The first is off the cards for a few years
The second is unlikely with Cameron
The third looked promising until last night
The fourth is decidedly dodgy, and can only get dodgier
The fifth was always a problem
The sixth has long been an even bigger problem, but was disguised until recently
Ergo: no independence.
348.
i) i referred to the perception that it is all paid for by english money, the rest i wrote was factual.
ii) I was in Scotland yesterday.
346 In the current circumstances inflation is far less dangerous than deflation. We need to do something about the massive levels of personal debt - reducing its real value through inflation is probably part of the answer. Increasing its real value through deflation would be catastrophic and would lead to a repeat of the 1930s slump.
What a wonderful result for Labour.
If there is a move back to them in Scotland the Lib Dems will breathe a sigh of relief as the SNP threat to them in LIb Dem seats will be less.
Will this Labour result replicate in any way south of the border.
Going to be very interesting? All bets are currently off.
352 That is big news.
On that basis the SNP did well and were mad to try and call it for themselves.
Taking most of the LibDems who are a unionist party is an acheivement.
All bets are currently off.
by dave (s) November 7th, 2008 at 11:44 am
I think you will find they aren’t
Just saw the BBC Propaganda Channel. Was quite mirthful, some BBC hack was interrogating Chris Grayling. Apparently this is, and I quote, ‘disasterous’ for the Conservatives in Scotland. Oh noes!
BETTING ALERT
344. Raj. Paddy Power have pushed 2010 out to 8/11. I’ve had on. This is value. I am strong on 20008 and 2009 so just balancing my books.
Libor £ 3m 4.49625% from 5.5125% (holding ~0.5% back on that measure).
352 Morus - Yes, the figures do seem to support that. Because the total vote was fairly similar to 2005, we can make direct comparisons:
- Labour got its vote out, and a few more (+600).
- SNP up 4478, which seems to have come from LibDems (down 3781) and maybe Tories voting tactically anti-Labour (Tory vote down 1300).
I guess the questions are: what are the implications for other Scottish seats, and why are the LibDems doing so badly? Was it former LibDems voting ‘anyone but Brown’, or was it local factors?
342
I think you’re confusing ‘good’ with ‘not awful’.
164 Morris Dancer wrote
“Most seriously, we won’t get a new Downfall spoof for some time:( ”
But look at the post at 57
“… , their candidate was a bumbling fool, the country is trashed and still these idiots vote Labour. I await with pleasure when the dolts are forced of their incapacity benefit onto job seekers allowance they will regret it big time.”
Surely there is scope for a “Downfall” spoof with Alex Salmond and MalcomG taking the lead roles.
365 - As I proposed earlier, in fact. I for one would love to see the view from within the SNP bunker, but lack the technical skills to create one!!
OT — why don’t MPs watch telly? The SNP nicked Obama’s “yes we can” apparently without realising that over here it comes from Bob The Builder not the president elect. And that is without the Olympics 2012 logo showing Lisa Simpson giving head.
[362] - One way of looking at that is that many people were expecting/calling for a 1% rate cut, and the MPC may have decided that they needed to cut base rates by 1.5% to move Libor by 1%…
[354] - I can’t argue with a lot of what you say, but I do think you over-estimate Cameron’s impact north of the border, and it is also the case that people will vote on what their perception of the situation is, rather than what you judge the reality of that situation to be.
You yourself admit to holding a different perception about the prospects for the Union three months ago.
Federations can fall apart very quickly if the constituent parts start fighting with each other. Salmond is clearly itching to start a fight.
[363] - They’ll be a degree of churn hidden by the net change in votes.
Thus it is possible that the lost Tory voters voted for the Unionist party [Labour] and that Labour lost some votes to the SNP. My personal opinion is that it is more likely the Tories would vote SNP to give the Westminster Labour government a kicking than vote Labour, but it can be hard to tell for sure.
366 Sorry if I missed it, Fleet.
Of the recognised SNP posters, I think only marcia has been graceful in defeat.
370- That’s fine Gwynfa - just wanted to show support again in the hope that someone will go and create one!
369 Perhaps they switched both ways, as in Bethnal Green in 2005.
A good result for Labour. Can I just point out a couple of basic economic realities -
1) The recession has only just started. For Labourites to draw comfort from this result and say that it shows support for Brown in a downturn ignores this basic point - most people are feeling the pinch, but it’s just the start. I still fully expect the narrative to turn very ugly for Labour over the next few months.
2) While the start of the recession is steep, I dont expect it to end quickly. Some people are talking about a recovery in 2009. This is bonkers, the likely outcome in the UK is for an L shaped recovery, not a V shaped one - with activity plummeting and then bumping along the bottom. This is because debt deflation is going to be bad (despite the heroic 150bp cut) and the unfavourable mix of economic activities in this country.
3) Someone was talking about M&S sales being down 6% but not noticing it - this is down to the fact that footfall (number of customers entering a shop) might be down much less, and that spending patterns are changing towards cheaper goods. Difficult to see in passing traffic, but noticeable in the stats.
4) Darling should be very careful about spending - the BoE actions are such that Sterling is now very vulnerable - an announcement of a huge splurge is going to lead to lots of pressure on Sterling.
5) House prices, as with all assets that benefited from the past easy credit are going to retrench. I now side with Voxpop - a nominal fall of 50% peak to trough looks likely and I have to say - it could be more.
6) Bank lending wont grow - the cuts in rates help at the margin, but the quality of customer credit is deteriorating too fast - together with their capital problems, expect banks to continue to refuse to lend.
Re the Lib Dems I’m afraid Nick Clegg who is a nice guy and does have some good original thoughts outside the box is just not making an impression with the electorate, especially it looks like north of the border. His style and background is just too similar to the Cameron/Osborne axis - Charles Kennedy in his heyday is sorely missed although I do realise he is a busted flush now. There is also too much focus on Cable. In the halycon days of Ashdown/Kennedy a whole host of combative Lib Dems appeared on our screens - Campbell, Beith, Hughes etc. Now we have to make do with Brian Eno - great for his work on Ladytron and early Roxy Music but not the person I’d have on QT in the week of Obama and Glenrothes.
354. seant, i think within the eu constitution any secceding state has the right of eu membership…….
Ah yes, Brian Eno, the Libdem’s 60 year old Youth Adviser.
375 Which EU Constitution would that be - the one kiled by the Irish no vote?
A really critical pointer to whether we might have an early election must be the Pre Budget Report this month. Next year’s budget deficit is going to enormous due to weaker growth alone, but will the government throw away the rule book and announce a significant relaxation of fiscal policy as well?
That could mean a budget deficit at 10% of GDP, but will Brown and Darling have the guts to say ‘that doesn’t matter - if we don’t do this the situation will be even worse?’. Will they cut income tax significantly to try to put the Tories in a hole?
This would be a very high risk strategy, not least because the public might conclude that any giveaways will only be temporary given the size of the deficit and/or that the government is being reckless.
Given the government’s cautious leader and its long-term addiction to announcements rather than real action, I doubt they will make this move, but politically it could be their only real chance….
Ken @ 373 re lending. Why can the BoE not lend directly or sell more gilts?
378 Surely the biggest pointer to an early election was Lord Mandy of Fop and Hearftlessfool telling us that Gordon would go to the country on the last day legally possible?
375. Not true.
The question of EU membership for a state seceding from a memberstate is constitutionally very murky, simply because it has never happened. You can get various different opinions from various different lawyers (as always).
There is no doubt, though, that the membership of Scotland as a seperate nation would have to be approved by all the present members - as with an ordinary accession state. Because it alters the EU fundamentally.
That means that countries which have their own secessionist neuroses: Spain, Belgium, Hungary, Cyprus, Greece, would have the power of veto over a development they would view as most undesirable - as it would encourage their own seperatists.
Scotland’s accession would, consequently, be far from guaranteed and immediate. It might even be vetoed. Certainly it would be questionable, which is, in my opinion, enough to make typically cautious referendum voters say No by itself.
377 - I suspect primed meant the consolidated Treaty establishing the European Union. I am not sure whether he is right on its provisions but that is probably the document.
381. Excuse my ignorance Sean but which parts of Greece and Hungary are secessionist? I find this stuff fascinating.
375, 382. PS, note that Sarkozy was recently in Canada, and was asked what he felt about Quebec seperatism.
HE POURED COLD WATER ON THE IDEA
He said “we are not in the business of breaking up countries, we want to bring people together”. This was a volte-face from the French, who have hitherto been covertly or overtly enthusiastic about an independent Quebec.
The reason? Large states have gone off the idea of encouraging divisions and secessions in other states, as they see the problems that ensue for all countries, once the precedent is set: cf. Kosovo, Georgia, Abkhazia, etc.
And on that outstandingly geeky note, I’m off for lunch to celebrate an enormous commission from FIFA - I have to visit 20 countries in the next 18 months to write about football changing the world.
So when you next go to a match, remember that a portion of your enormous ticket price is paying for my champagne in Brazil.
xx
354 Any conservative government in England is a game changer for the SNP and everyone knows it.
After 4 election defeats a rabid dog was thinking how do we ever get a change.
Having said that if Scotland does go indpendent many outside the South of England might be in the same boat, of been governed by the born to rule mob forever.
377. The EU Treaty hasn’t been killed by the Irish no vote. On the contrary those lovely chaps in the EU are putting pressure on Ireland to vote again if they’re confident of a yes vote probably autumn next year. Or failing that they can, and will, implement 90% of it via existing treaties and the other 10% will be added to the treaty which implement’s Croatia’s accession to the EU in probably 2010
The EU never takes no for an answer
385. I think I’d prefer ‘born to rule’ with the current ‘born to misrule’ mob any day.
356:
inflating away debts?
Oh great, yes that’s right let’s let all the careless reckless tw@ts off with their debts, but stuff all those who didn’t feel the need to get up to their eyeballs, and actually SAVE something. Let’s all reward irresponsibility, and penalise those of us living within our means.
NO NO NO NO NO
the thing which needs to be done about personal debt is to PAY IT BACK by working hard. NOT by slashing interest rates.
I have gone from depressed to angry.
383. Greece is worried about Cyprus and the Macedonian situation.
Hungary I simply got wrong - I meant Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria - who all opposed Kosovan independence for this reason.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_/ai_n24312646
Apols. Writing at speed.
Ciao!
378 The problem with too loose a fiscal policy and low interest rates is that foreigners will stop buying UK bonds, sterling will fall to depths not seen and Government will have to go cap in hand to IMF (perhaps that’s why Gordon was trying to get the Arabs to capitalise the IMF).
If Gordon does it to win an election then he will be faced by a failed economy and years of spending cuts and increased taxation as the Treasury tries to restore some semblance of a healthy economy.
Reckless doesn’t really describe it.
379. John L. The BoE can push money on the banks but they cannot lend directly to the private sector - they dont have the manpower, systems, branches, or information required. (Selling gilts would reduce money supply.)
378 I think they will go for some tax cuts, possibly balanced by increases at the top end (incomes over, say, £150,000).
Election will be next June if there appears to be any chance of Labour winning, but not earlier. Bearing in mind the disaster last October I expect Brown to keep everyone guessing and probably not even tell his closest colleagues until he has decided.
Going in June would be 4 years after the last election and in line with the pattern of the Blair and Thatcher years - going earlier would be open to accusations of opportunism.
Given that the Tories have ramped up expectations of a 1997-style landslide a “good” result for Brown would now be much easier to achieve - a hung parliament (quite likely IMO) in 2007 would have been regarded as a very poor result for Labour, but now it would be seen as a remarkable comeback.
It’s interesting that the increase in the SNP vote of about 50% is perceived as a disaster for the party. They managed to squeeze the Lib Dem votes from 2005 extremely effectively, and had some success with the Conservatives.
This still left them 6-7,000 votes short of Labour, however, with local issues and the Icelandic Saga keeping Labour voters from 2005 loyal.
The SNP seems to need a much more effective story on the economic benefits of independence in order to start taking Labour votes in these credit crunch days.
373: Ken
Good post, I agree with all your points, I REALLY hope you are right about Brown in no. 1. I don’t mean I hope the recession is big, my aspirations for that are irrelevant - it will inescapably be ugly. What yesterday’s result seems to show however is that Brown is miraculously escaping the blame.
Maybe today’s IMF report predicting a worse economic performance next year for the UK than for almost anyone else will finally nail the utterly wrong statement “we are well placed to weather the downturn”
But it seems that voters take precious little notice of such things and vote for Labour because of Sarah Brown’s hair. Give me strength.
387 Yes but your type prefer not having to even bother going through the charade of an election.
Born to rule as our current head of state,typifies the out dated practice in this century.
The queen has been excellent in the role, nevertheless it should be the last born to rule appointment, its time to move on, if you believe in change.
The pro-government swing in Glenrothes was the largest since the Paisley by-elections in 1990 (held the day after Thatcher resigned), and the largest in a seat the government was defending since Beaconsfield 1982 (held at the height of the Falklands War.) Coincidentally, on both occasions, a government that had been written-off was subsequently re-elected….
The SNP may have peaked, and are unlikely to reach the take-off point in Scotland (around 33% of the vote.) Expect only 2 or 3 gains for the SNP.
Overall, the Tory by-election performance is simply not good enough to propel them to largest party, never mind a majority. I expect they will win the popular vote though.
Labour should emerge as the largest party in a Hung Parliament.
My guestimate is something like
Con 37%
Lab 34%
LD 19%
Seats
Lab 295
Con 270
LD 52
Nats 13
Oths 2
NI 13
The recent opinion polls will bear no relation to the outcome.
Sell the Tories….
390 I don’t think a massive 1976-style collapse in sterling (or the $, which is in a quite similar position) is likely for the reason that this would greatly increase the competitiveness of UK (and US) products compared to those of stronger currencies, especially the yen, and eventually the BoJ would be forced to try and push the yen down to avoid Japanese industry being decimated. And the BoJ has the firepower to be able to do this.
A substantial fall in the value of the £ was the key to the 1992 recovery, and the same will be true in 2010 (or whenever). I think the BoE and the government would not worry until the £ got to around parity with the $.
O/T For lefties’ Liberals and Obamacons who fancy a bit of a Friday chuckle take a look at the King of Reactionaries Rush Limbargh’s website. The odious shock jock has spontaneously combusted and is now directing his ire at John McCain, unmarried women and anyone else he deems responsible for Obama’s win. Oh happy day to see this deeply unpleasant individual so sore.
395, codswallop. The monarchy is a fine institution, and when our politicians are being interviewed by police for corruption and lying in Parliament to trick us into wars, the very last thing we need is for the jealous socialists of the country to try and drag down the royal family.
354. The Labour vote in Scotland has always been insanely solid for a party in a western democracy. In 2007 the SNP won largely because the small parties collapsed - the Labour vote itself held up very well. I had thought that, now the SNP were seen as a more of an establishment party than a protest one, Labour would become more vulnerable. If this by-election is a significant national indicator - and I think the council election results in Glasgow and Edinburgh yesterday suggest that it is, despite Labour’s focus on local issues - then the Scottish Labour vote is as impregnable as ever.
The SNP’s best hope, perhaps, is for a complete collapse in the Lib Dem and Tory votes. In a Holyrood election, which is what the SNP really care about, that looks like a strong possibility.
The other silver lining is that this should force Salmond to re-evaluate his fundament as an endless source of sunshine. I’ve long thought that reverting to smug type almost as soon as he got into office was a big mistake, and even if his arrogance didn’t cost this election, it’s turned this from a setback into something of a catastrophe.
342. Nick, you make an interesting point about ‘lazy’ Labour voters and it will be interesting to see whether the party can energise these voters to vote for them and against the prospect of a Tory government.
However, there is also the issue of the “lost” Conservative voters since 1992. Obviously many of these will have died since then but the Tories won 14 million votes in 1992 and only 9 million in 1997 and down to 8.5 million in 2005. Labour won 13.5 million in 1997 and only 9.5 million in 2005 (around the same number the Tories got in 1997).
It is likely that the next election will see a higher turnout than anytime since 1997; the key question maybe whether those returning voters are the “lost Tories” or the “lazy Labourites”.
The next reputable opinion poll to be published is eagerly awaited by one and all I suspect.
390. I doubt a sterling crisis would happen Ted - things are so different from 1976. There’s a huge demand for risk-free assets and minimal inflation risk now. But it would still be a very risky move and that I suspect will mean any serious stimulus will be avoided. Indeed, there remains a risk the government will actually tighten policy (not that they will admit it if they do).
396. You reckon only 2 or 3 gains for the Nats, but also predict they’ll end up with around 13? They have 7 now, and to say that Glasgow East looks dodgy is an understatement. 13 would be a good result, at least from this morning’s vantage point.
397 The world economy was growing again when UK left the ERM and the value of the £ fell - that’s not the case now - who is going to buy all those exports?. Government current account deficit was near zero in 1992, its above 40% already and likely to go to 65% or so already (excluding PFI etc) and 90% plus next year without additional fiscal stimulus. Personal debt was lower so stimulating consumer demand wasn’t such a risk.
Britain is badly placed in comparison to how it entered the 1989/91 recession.
396 - I understand your methodology, Rod, but do you really think it is wise to infer much about the Tories’ national prospects from a Scottish by-election?
The electoral geography of Scotland has moved on and it is easy to envisage a Tory majority (or largest-party status) without any Scottish gains (or indeed seats).
In fact, Tory underperformance in Scotland, vis-a-vis their national opinion polling, is actually a good thing for their national prospects as it implies a slight overperformance in England.
#368 Not sure that’s the correct way of looking at it, if we are seeking a return to normal interbank lending.
Go back to to October 1st and fast forward:
Oct 1: Base rate: 5% Libor £ 3m 6.30750% (premium 1.30750%)
Oct 30: Base rate: 4.5% Libor £ 3m 5.88250% (premium 1.38250%)
Nov 7: Base rate: 3% Libor £ 3m 4.49625% (premium 1.49625%)
In other words there is a risk premium (the banks still do not trust each others balance sheets) attaching to interbank lending of around 1.4%.
My guess is it’s now cheaper to tap the BoE up for funds, hence we see RBS, BARC and HBOS issuing 3 year govt guaranteed bonds (neat off-balance sheet trick, Gordon) for £8.4Bn to date, rather than lend to each other.
It’s a liquidity trap, similar thing is going on in the US - banks depositing funds with the Fed rather than lending to each other - result Fed is having to buy CP, normally a function of the money markets.
Central banks are now looking like the lender of first, last and possibly the only resort.
(Fed is now leveraged by a factor of 50, capital of $41bn versus assets of $2,076bn)
This byelection brings to mind 2 earlier Scottish results when Labour significantly exceeded expectations. In early 1978, Donald Dewar held Garscadden with a much more comfortable majority than predicted. For several years prior to this the conventional wisdom had been that the SNP would build on the 11 seats won at the October 1974 Election , but post Garscadden it was downhill all the way for them culminating in the loss of 9 out of the 11 seats in the 1979 Election.
The other byelection was Ayrshire South held in March 1970.Labour retained the seat with only a small swing against it and the SNP came third - the victorious Labour candidate being a certain Jim Sillars known then as ‘the hammer of the nats’.
As it turned out , both results were a prelude to a strong Labour performance in Scotland at the 1970 and 1979 Elections and bitter disappointments for the SNP!
On the other hand, despite their success in Scotland Labour went down to defeats at both those UK General Elections.Others would strongly suggest that those defeats were not inevitable and a fair bit to poor or unlucky election timing. In particular, had Harold Wilson called the 70 Election for June 11th rather than June 18th, Labour would have avoided the last minute poor trade figures and the England exit from the World Cup. Debate over whether Jim Callaghan wouls have won an Autumn 78 Election continues to this day , but must be odds on that he would at least have secured a Hung Parliament!
404. I include PC in the “Nats”, who could make three gains on the 2005 notionals.
406. It’s not just one Scottish by-election: - it’s all by-elections this parliament. We’ve done the regional swing thesis to death - it never has and never will have more than a minimal impact, and I’ve factored it in anyway, to the Tories advantage…
re the lost votes discussion - Boris won in London becuase the lost Tories came back - the labour vote also went up but not by as much -
Ths trend can play well for both the Tories and labour but the liberal Dems can be overwhelmed by it - this happened in the London assembly elections don - LIB dem vote went up in absolute terms in many of their core areas and this would normally be enough but not when the soft tory vote is motivated and tops them
I’ve just send it to betfair:
Hi,
16 hours ago, the State of North Carolina in the U.S.A has officially called a victory there for Obama:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gm2yiI1ldmLIuwjggDkdguj9Hp_gD949L8B00
Is it possible then to settle as soon as possible, both:
– the North Carolina market:
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=21077046&ex=1&origin=MRL
– the Electoral market (since Obama has now officially more than 350 Electoral Votes).
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20706249&ex=1&origin=MRL
Thanks a lot in advance,
Philippe
16 hours late…
410. Am I right in thinking the Lib Dems lost around 75% of their previous vote last night?
398 - I love the headline “Obama recession in full swing”. Coz it was all going so well until Barack got in! Hilarious stuff on there.
409 - The problems, as I see them, with your average by-election swing (and swingback) calculations are that:
(a) it doesn’t take into account when and where the by-elections are. What if a couple more by-elections had been held in Labour seats at the same time as Crewe? Obviously over time these things may average out but we are getting fewer by-elections than in the past so the sample sizes are becoming smaller.
(b) third & fourth parties greatly complicate the picture, especially with tactical voting potentially disguising the true size of the two-party swing.
Anyhow, I’d suggest you tuck into the 3.85 Labour most seats available on betfair, based on your projections.
397. I’m talking about the possibility of Sterling/Dollar parity. (It’s the next resistance level after $1.40). The cuts in rates make Sterling far less attractive and if Darling splurges, the forex markets arent going to like it. This would then put upward pressure on gilt yields (already happening to some extent). It’s walking a tightrope. I wouldnt call it a sterling crisis - but it would be bad - I’d expect the BoE to slow interest rate cuts if fiscal policy looks out of control.
Currency intervention (without changes to fundamentals) is useless. Overall intervention has lost central banks money and relative to the trillions of dollars that flow through forex markets each day, the firepower of all the central banks is as nothing. The central banks can slow movements and they can swing things at tipping points, but head-on central banks (even the Fed and the BoJ) are as gnats meeting the bonnet of the forex car.
405. There is no such thing as a government current account deficit (the current account is part of the balance of payments), and what I assume you mean is the government debt as a percentage of GDP (a stock measure) rather than the deficit (a flow measure). In 1992, the debt was well above zero (as was the deficit). No one expects the official debt numbers to rise more than 10% of GDP a year (add in 5% for the bank bailout), 90% is therefore unlikely.
396 - Rod Crosby. The swing was 5% from Labour to the SNP. Unless by a pro-government swing you mean in Hoyrood terms?
Did you learn your swing mathematics from the BBC?
416. The swing which matters is the Lab-Con, which was -3.2%, in other words, a swing to Labour….
“reducing its real value through inflation is probably part of the answer.”
And what about savers?
[399] - If I cared about the perpetuation of the Monarchy, I would be worried about Prince Charles. He has the potential to cause a Constitutional crisis by attempting to intervene in the business of government.
Monarchists need to have a quiet word with whoever it is that has Charles’ trust.
417, hahaha.
You’re using a safe Labour seat with the SNP the main challengers to project the next general election results. It’s up there with Luntz’s focus group in a Labour-Lib Dem marginal to ‘prove’ the Tories weren’t making headway.
411. To be fair, Phillipe, that report doesn’t say that the state of North Carolina has officially declared anything.
417. No, in Glenrothes the swing from Labour to Con really doesn’t matter on a broader scale. Tory vote got squeezed, disappointing but no surprise but if you want to bet on a swing to Labour of 3.2% at the next election it’s your money if you want to lose it
417 You know it doesn’t work like that (I hope). So was the swing in the Henley by election 7.5% Labour to Tory? I thought it was actually 0.8% Lib Dem to Tory. I would be delighted if you were right.
Idiot.
419, aye. I don’t think Charles a bad or incompetent man but he needs to learn the ancient art of shutting the hell up occasionally.
Who believes like I do ,that sky news is going the same way has fox news in the USA,fox news backs the republican party and sky news ,since Browns so called fight back have been reporting pro labour and anti tory news stories.The sky news reporter at last nights by - election was the cretinous Jon Craig,this man makes me sick with his pro labour reporting,sky news your pro labour bias is showing.
417. Couldn’t a lot of that swing be Tories voting tactically for Labour to keep the SNP out?
Mind you, this by election has shaken my belief that the Conservatives are coasting to a comfortable win. I still think victory is achievable for the Conservatives, but I’m not as confident as I was.
417 - I think you’re whistling in the wind. It was clearly a two-party election and the swing in seats the Tories are clearly well behind (and in Scotland too) will not be replicated in 2010.
If you honestly think Labour will win the next election I’m sure most people on here would be well willing to take your bets (as would all the bookies)
417…. and by your defintion Henley had a swing of 7.7% from Labour to Lib Dem. 6% Labour to Green. 5.8% Labour to BNP. 5.8% Labour to UKIP. Jeez a 5.8% swing Labour to the Monster Raving Looney party.
A 5.8% SWING FROM LABOUR TO THE FUR PLAY PARTY.
You must be terrified of a wipeout. You muppet.
[412] - Nearly. The Lib Dems lost a tiny smidgen under 80% of their voters.
For all the ridicule heaped on Rod’s methodology (422,423,426,427,428) I do think that 3.85 for Labour most seats is bordering on value; I can only see it shortening in the medium term. That said, the far more stonking bet at almost the same price is, as ever, the hung parliament.
417 The last election (where Labour dained to field a candidate) where the Tories and Labour were 1st and second, the swing was 17.6% Labour to Tory. Crewe and Nantwich.
When you get a swing of 17.6% in a Tory seat where Labour are second, come back on here and gloat then.
420,422,423. Yes, the only swing that really matters is the Lab-Con.
Why?
i) the (relative) change in the Labour and Conservative vote always varies more systematically than any other pair of parties.
ii) the vast majority of seats changing hands in a general election will be between Labour and Conservative.
iii) since 1970, 95% of an opposition party’s general election performance can be “explained” by its average by-election performance. The current Tory swing is 5.6%. Doesn’t look good, does it?
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
Well… the by-election election!
My appearances recently here have been rare but I have been touting Labour, the last few weeks, odious though they may be. What’s been your with you? A SNP win in Glenrothes? No, I said Salmond had certainly over done it.. Could certainly be an open election.
Will try to appear more on this forum, to keep you in check.
Labour should call a general ellection IMO - It will not get any better for them than this IMO.
The Tories are failing to hit Labour over the recession - Frankly Osborne for his supreme stratigist tag has failed to land a blow recently despite the trashing of Brown/ Labour’s economic policy. Being quite and not saying anything is not good enough - to be a good opposition you have to hammer the government all the time. The Tories are seriously missing hitting Labour where they deserve. Labour have screwed the economy and the Labour economic framework has made this recession worse than it should have been.
432 - I appreciate the importance of Labour-Tory swing but you won’t find the likely swing by read across from a by-election in which the Tories were an irrelevant sideshow.
What you can say about this by-election is simply that Labour’s vote held up very, very well compared with a very similar by-election a couple of months ago. That is bad news for the SNP, Tories, Lib Dems and indeed the Fur Play Party. But you can’t read the swing across.
[422] - To be fair, the Lab->Con swing at Glasgow East was 9.2%, on its own pointing to more Tory gains from Labour. The difference is more about Labour’s vote holding up than anything to do with the Tories, but this will obviously also happen to an extent in Labour-Tory marginals.
[414] - We’ve had 12 by-elections so far this Parliament [3 and a half years], compared with 6 for the period 2001-2005, 17 for 1997-2001 and 18 for 1992-1997.
419/424: As someone who isn’t relaly a monarchist but feels the Queen does a good job, I wrote to Charles’s office a few years ago when he was hitting the headlines about various issues. The letter suggested that when he became King people would keep reminding him of things he’d said, and he’d have difficulty if he had to read the speech of a government promoting GM crops or one of his other concerns.
I had a pleasant two-page reply from his personal secretary, which said essentially that Charles felt it part of his role to raise issues that he felt needed greater attention, but where the issue became the subject of party controversy he then left the subject alone, and I’d note he’d not said much about GM crops recently for that reason.
433. Good to see you on here! Hope you are getting better.
I still consider that, say, a by-election that sees Labour’s share drop by 10% and the Conservative’s rise by 10% in a Lab/Con marginal, is a very different animal to one that sees Labour’s share drop by 20%, and the Conservative’s unchanged, in a safe Labour seat.
419. Yes, Republicans like me have high hopes of what King Charles III might achieve.
434 - I agree with this. I think Labour would lose, but I think they would be in the game and it would not be a landslide. Whereas what do they get from waiting?
But I think they will wait as Brown is cautious and wants to mark up time.
Btw. Figures today show that the US has lost half a million jobs in two months, and we are certainly not at the bottom yet. Uncomfortable background for Mr.Obama, but even more disturbing for Brown and Co. Watch the next 2-3 sets of numbers in the UK…its going to be horrible.
432 Sorry will stop feeding you Rod. You are like the blog version of Brown, incapable of understanding the most basic of mathematical realities, yet able to trot out seriously flawed and incorrect facts (or is it lies) without batting an eyelid. Keep trotting out the stats about the glorious recovery, the glorious leader. Its all going great in socialist heaven. Britain loves Brown and Labour. It will all be alright, the unemployed single mothers of Scotland will hang onto their flats and plasmas paid for by the English taxpayer.
Perhaps, to back up your theory, you could find an opinion poll from the last 9 months which shows Labour leading?
Bring back Roger, all is forgiven.
435. I am not taking Glenrothes in isolation, but I am not ignoring it either…
Prior to Glenrothes I had an average Tory swing of 6.5%. Now it’s 5.6%. The Tories did better than this between 2001-5 (7.9%)
In real votes, the Tories simply aren’t doing well enough.
I wonder if we’ll get the fashionably late Populus November poll tonight?
432. This happens a lot with horse racing. People get systems and won’t hear anything against them, even if the fundamentals are weak.
437. Yes, that’s a good point you make Nick! Hosteges to fortune and all that! Michael Kitchener in to play the king showed how in the fictitios environment such a person would become compromised.
Glad to here you are what i call a passive republican! I am a member of that same club! It seems strange that someone will still become the next head of state by accident of birth.
Bet you wanted a signed Charles letter though!
O/T I have heard the Libor rate has plumeted today!
444. Do you take into account the Council Elections in May to your real votes calculations?
444. So David Cameron is doing worse than IDS/Michael Howard?
From the Evening Standard.
07/11/2008
Brown scotches early general election speculation
Gordon has just done a post-Glenrothes press conference in Number 10. Instead of dancing a jig, he looked deliberately stern.
Crucially, he said at least four or five times that his “undivided attention” and “focus” was on the Government’s plans to help families cope with the downturn.
I’m told by Downing Street sources that this was as clear a signal as possible that there will be no snap general election in the spring.
They clearly want to kill off overnight speculation that the “Brown bounce” and the Glenrothes victory will lead to an early poll. Given the fiasco of the on-off election of last year, this will come as a welcome relief to Labour MPs.
07/11/2008 | Permalink
444 - Since we have had 12 by-elections in this Parliament, with 4 in Scotland, 1 with an independent winner, and 1 essentially uncontested, do you not think the sample might be flawed?
415 Ken - wasn’t concentrating so made a hash of that post, thinking about the 1970 election mentioned so current account stuck in my mind - meant the PSBR - which was as you say by 1992 rapidly rising.
Point I was making (badly) was that UK entered the recession with no PSBR in 1989/90 (a surplus of £5bn), with a PSBR of £10.5bn in 1991/92 rising to £38bn by 92/93. This time we are entering a recession with high PSBR in comparison to that, borrowings rapidly increasing and likely to hit £65 billion (not %) this year and £90 billion or so next year and the 1990’s experience was that bringing those back under control took 5 years or so of recovery. Government debt is likely to rise, without additional fiscal stimulus, until 2014/2015.
In 1989/90 National debt was around 30% IIRC, and it fell below that the following year before beginning its climb to the maximum in 1997/8. This time we are starting just below that maximum (43.4% compared to 44.2% in 1997/8) though of course Gordon Brown uses his preferred lower figure of 37.9%.
450. I think Browns making an error in delaying. Of course the bounce could gather momentum and increase over the next six months, but the danger is it will evaporate as quickly as it materialzed. I don’t really sees what Brown gains in waiting?
448. No. I leave that to others, but I think there are differences. People may actually vote on local issues, whereas by-elections have historically been seen as a “free” opportunity to kick the government…
Less of the ad hominem attacks. You only diminish yourselves. I have never voted Labour and probably never will..
453. Brown is denying that he is going to call an election - It seems to me that it is gathering pace. It will get to the stage where unless he formally rules it out he will have to call an election.
[443] - You might disagree with it, but the stats for Rod’s method are worked out from the data. They aren’t lies. It’s even worked for elections after other turbulent political periods, such as 1979 and 1983, which is impressive.
However, there’s a long history of such correlations, trained with historical data, falling apart with new data. I’m looking forward to see how Rod’s swingback analysis fares at the next election.
The Standard also quotes a certain Nick Palmer MP, whohe?
LABOUR MP Nick Palmer clearly had his finger on the pulse as the polls closed in Glenrothes. “I don’t know any Labour MPs who are expecting us to win - the range of opinion is from, ‘Well, we’ve given them a run for their money’ to ‘bloody by-elections, what can you expect?’” Palmer told The Guardian’s rolling internet coverage adding that “although there’s been a big push by the party organisation in the last few days, I’ll be surprised if it’s even close…”
453, assuming this isn’t in fact a piece of deceit to try and catch people out, like the “Nobody thinks we’ll win in Glenrothes… OMG, we r amazing!!!111″ tactic we just saw.
455. Sorry that should say - Brown is not denying that he is going to call an election -It seems to me that it is gathering pace. It will get to the stage where unless he formally rules it out he will have to call an election.
413. Dig out his diatribe about unmarried women, who apparently trended heavily Obama (even more so than all women, whom he carried by about 10 pts).
Rush reckons he has a survey that shows these Sex In The City/Bridget Jones types are stupider than married women. And he says that their massive support for Obama proves his survey or something. What a guy!
Well, Nick was certainly rightin that it wasn’t close.
456 - see 451 for why I think (barring a spate of Crewe-type by-elections) Rod’s graph is about to acquire an outlier
457 - Well, it wasn’t close, was it?
445 I think this poll is due tonight.
451. If you take out the four in Scotland, and the two uncontested/independent what is the swing with the remaining six?
403. So Runnymede you do have a brain and are clearly capable of intelligent discussion. And here was me thinking that you preferred to employ personal insults.
re 443 but Labour don’t need to be leading to win the election, or even win a majority for that matter.
The media are certainly starting to talk about an early general election - I think Brown is going to either have to call one or rule it if he does not want a repeat of last year.
I can see why Rod makes these calculations and I don’t believe he is a Labour supporter. However the basis for the calculations looks pretty tenuous to me and one I personally wouldn’t risk a penny on.
#442 US job figures:
-240,000 in October versus a consensus of ~-200,000.
Sep figure revised to 284,000 from 168,000
Aug figure revised to 139,000 from 104,000
So more than half a million in 2 months as you say, and October’s number could be further revised.
The Mail on Darling’s talk with the Banks.
http://tinyurl.com/6h3f2o
Hmmm see Dave is saying that the government should, ‘force’ the nationalised banks to drop their rates, I wonder when Dave will come out of the closet and call for, ‘all’ the banks to be nationalised, its the obvious thing to do.
Cheadle 2005 3.1% (LD hold)
Bromley 2006 2.2% (Con hold)
Ealing Southall 2007 4.2% (Lab hold)
Sedgefield 2007 7.1% (Lab hold)
Crewe/Nantwich 2008 17.5% (Con gain)
Henley 2008 7.5% (Con hold)
Average 6.9%
470. As I said the other day - The Tories should highlight the fact that RBS, which seems to have been bailed out the most. Does not seem to be likely to suffer joblosses. This is in contrast to HBOS, which had less tax payer funds being pumped into it through its forced merger with Lloyds TSB will mean 30,000 job losses. Does not seem right to me - Taxpayers at HBOS keeping RBS employees in jobs but not vice verser!
It appears that the President Elect might have had different ideas about mentorship than Gordo….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1083909/Brown-gets-just-minutes-phone-Obama–Sarkozy-gets-half-hour.html
471. Thanks. So better, but still not that good. The one that stands out of course is the 17.5 swing achieved in Crewe and Nantwich. It’d be interesting to see what would happen in a similar seat right now. Perhaps Nick Palmer could stand down and let us test it out!
438 - thanks… I at least today can concentate and focus. When tired I can’t remember anything. Started yesterday six weeks of chemo and radiotherapy (5 days a week), and they provide daily transport.
Most fun I have had is the Stranglers concert in Reading on the day of a seizure a fortnight ago - could hardly speak, but got let go by doctors (but they though I was going home). Ho hom… are we we back to discussing the financial markets again… oh God!
475, best of luck with the treatment.
451. I don’t think it’s flawed, and it can hardly be “unrepresentative”, since the arrival of by-elections is similar to a random process. I accept, however, that it could underestimate the Tories performance - but not by much, and I’ve factored that in.
I’ve adjusted Blaenau to show a true swing to the Tories, and ignored Haltemprice completely. If you want to impute a hypothetical Henley-sized swing to the Tories in H&H, you only increase the running average from 5.6% to 5.8%…
Which at the moment implies the swing to the Tories at the next election is unlikely to exceed 3%..
It’s not meant to give a pin-point accurate prediction of the next election, but I’m confident it gets into the ball-park…
477, great, you can bet heavily for both a hung Parliament and a Labour majority and win either way.
474 - Well, by excluding Glasgow East you lose out on the excellent 9.2% swing the Conservatives achieved there
453. “I don’t really sees what Brown gains in waiting?” Another 12 months or so in power. I must be one of the few lefties on here who thinks this a storm in a teacup. Tories to win next election with a majority of 50-80.
[462] - I agree to an extent. I’ve been telling Rod for some time that the numbers in his analysis would probably change in the Tories favour as we got nearer to the election and there were more Crewe and Glasgow East style elections.
We can’t be sure what would happen in a Crewe-like by-election, were one to have happened yesterday, but it seems unlikely that Labour would have lost nearly 10,000 votes as they did then. Remember that Labour gained votes in Glenrothes.
You’re right that there’s been an absence of Lab-Con by-elections. I think there’s only been three which had Labour and Tory in the top two positions in 2005 [Crewe, Sedgefield and Bromley] If you restrict the sample to these three the swings are +17.6, +7.1 and +2.3 respectively, which works out to an average of +9 compared to the 5.6 Rod is touting.
You can see that the swings in the three contests span an enormous range, so I’d hardly use the average from them with any confidence.
I think Rod’s granite-like confidence in his method may prove misplaced, but a result like yesterday’s does make me wonder.
480. Don’t you see that the By-election, the bank rates cuts are all part of a momentum strategy. Brown looks like he is getting ready for an early general election - I have yet to here a No. 10 spoeksperson deny that an election is being planned for.
480, I agree with you (although I’d narrow it to 50-70).
This election comes after weeks of excellent press coverage for Brown, Salmond’s Iceland problem and non-stories like the yacht business getting more media attention than impending economic doom.
If they had an election soon it would be as the situation was bad and getting worse, and would smack of putting party before country.
Not only Brown, but all those in marginal seats and on ministerial salaries benefit from waiting.
Good to see you posting again SBS,
Does anyone have any idea when the result for Missouri is expected to be announced, plus the one outstanding ECV for Omaha?
It’s a frustrating wait for those of us with spread bets on the number of States and ECVs won - the more so, when we know the result but can’t get our money out of the bookies, who sadly don’t all settle like Paddy Power.
477 - “the arrival of by-elections is similar to a random process”
Not with the shorter life expectancy in Scotland, it isn’t
Anyway, I’ll leave it there - I reckon you’re missing the bigger picture (i.e. the opinion poll slump post-the-election-that-wasn’t) but I’d concede that the Tories would need to record c. 12%+ swings in any suitable seats (i.e. clear Lab/Con battles) that came up now to be confident of getting a majority.
477. Argh. NO. It is totally flawed. The sample size is too small and it is clearly biased and probably skewed. The fact that by-elections arise through a random process does not guarantee that they will be representative. That will depend on the size of the sample relative to the overall population, not on the randomness of selection - your argument would mean that if there had only been one by-election (but it was chosen randomly) it would be representative.
Brown bottles early (2008) General election:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5105877.ece
487, unfair to call it bottling. He actually promised not to have one in his post-conference (2007) massage with Marr, and said one in 2009 was ‘unlikely’ or something like that.
482. Would you like an early GE Martin? I think the Tories would win it handily FWIW.
473 Have you heard Sarkozy’s English. 30minutes is probably just enough time to say hello. Assuming this was the real Sarkozy.
490 - LOL - good reposte to a cheap shot by me. Well said Jonathan!
O/T For those interested in continental politics
Result of the internal vote of the Parti socialiste in France: extreme division but Royal is back in the lead
Result of yesterday’s vote:
- Motion E (Royal) 29%
- Motion A (Delanoe)25%
- Motion D (Aubry) 25%
- Motion C (Hamon) 19%
- 2 other motions 2%
After 18 months of soul-searching the PS is back where it started after its 2007 presidential and parliamentary defeat: extremely divided, with no clear leader but a small advantage to Royal.
Royal can be very happy of the results, as her motion is ahead. Her gamble to ally herself with local barons of the party in southern France paid off: large victories in the South + her small but persistant personal following elsewhere got her in first place. She has already dropped the fiction that she was not the leader of the mmotion (the official leader is Collomb, mayor of Lyons), using “I” and not “We” in every interview today…
However, she has completely lost the commanding position she got in the presidential primary (60% of party members) and has only won the upper hand in the complex game of necessary alliances to build a majority. This result will not either allow her to seek the leadership (the leader is another election in 2 weeks) and will probably try to impose a caretaker leader of her choosing, probably Vincent Peillon (MEP).
The result is a crushing blow for Delanoe, making clear his overwhelming media support does not translate into a personal following in the party. His bid for the presidency in 2012 certainly ends here. It is also a bitter blow for Hollande, leader for the last 11 years, who did not manage to deliver the votes for motion A. Being seen as the favourite has cost a lot to the motion, and the widely criticized quote of Delanoe “I am socialist and liberal” probably cost them the lead after the crisis radicalized the party’s leftists (even if he explained that he meant liberal in a social sense and not economic sense, “liberal” is a terrible curse word in socialist circles).
Motion D outperformed expectations and Aubry has acquired for herself a strong mandate. However, her result is heavily drawn from her fiefdoms of Nord and Pas de Calais, her national appeal seems limited. However her unlikely alliance of right-wingers of the party and the less-extreme branch of the eurosceptic left-wing seems a preview of the future party majority and she has got herself in the position of king maker.
Motion C had an amazing result, outperforming all results of the party’s left-wing since the 1970ies. Hamon (41) is clearly a rising star of the party and brilliantly used the financial crisis to make the case for a return to an anti-capitaliust message and a rejection of social-democracy. He already warned Royal that she had to renounce her idea of alliances with the centris party (Bayrou’s MODEM), clearly threatening to ally with Aubry and some motion A defectors if she does not.
However, one of the most leftist member of the motion (Melenchon) announced today he quits the PS (explicitly linking his decision to Royal’s success) and will seek to create another party. Further desertions would weaken again this wing of the party.
The other 2 motions were useless, as predicted, their score being particularly reduced bt motion C’s success.
So after all these months of campaigning and praising direct democracy, PS grandees will, as usual, decide the real winner in closed-door negotiations of alliances…
I think that Royal has to be really cautious in negotiations to avoid an anti-Royal alliance of motions A C and D (they are especially furious by Royal’s initiative to announce the day before the vote that she would pay poorer wannabe members’ membership fees). This probably means that she will have to be even more left-wing and renounce (at least for now) alliances with the centre.
Conclusion:
- after a third of Sarhozy’s term, the PS still lacks an undisputed leader (Delanoe is finished, Royal very weakened)
- almost all PS leaders have moved very far to the left and those that did not do it enough (Delanoe/Hollande) have been punished
- Sarkozy may have opened a good bottle of Bollinger this morning (even if almost never drinks)
- For the first time since last January, a poll gave yesterday Sarkozy a net positive presidential approval (+1 47/46) after recovering from lows of -30.
A Conservative leader urges the govenment to force nationalised banks to reduce rates. Boris continues to morph into Livingstone.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/nov/07/boris-johnson-robert-tuttle-congestion-charge
Boristone?
Confused? you certainly will be!
490.
“Have you heard Sarkozy’s English.”
If Sarah Palin knew he was English she’d never have been conned by those Canadians, would she?
490- I’m not so sure that for an American ear Gordon’s accent is much easier to understand…
489. Yes! When your out of work it’s something interesting to observe!
I could even deliver leaflets for the Tories (Providing it did not screw my dole money!)as it is good exercise and at least when you attend an interview you can reply with something other than saying looking for work/ gaining new Quals etc!
SBS,all the very,very best,and I hope you are fighting fit soon
493
“Boris continues to morph into Livingstone.”
They certainly seem to have a shared approach to dong dangling.
494 - “Is France a Continent?” - Sarah Palin
491 Sarkozy’s English. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnxags924jw
Hilarious stuff IMO and Light relief on what must have been a bad day for some. That Canadian guy was far too good to be Sarkozy.
I know it’s a bit sickening, but Blair was damn good at this sort of stuff. I wish I had such a good accent. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrw5YgWC0rs
Chance of G Brown speaking French. Not high surely.
484 To the best of my knowledge Missouri is called for the GOP,the first time since 1956 it has not gone with the national winner.
Intriguely (if I have not been fed duff information,it was exactly 52 years before that,1904,that Missouri last failed to go with the national winner
486. if there was only one by-election, I would not be making any predictions based on it. We’ve had 11 comparable by-elections so far, with approximately 400,000 real ballots cast, in what are commonly perceived as referenda on the Government and Opposition.
That’s a hell of a sample to extract a single metric, swing, from, and as history shows, by-election swing is a rather accurate predictor of the swing at the next election.
493 etc. Boris is right though. Why should these diplomats not pay their road charges? Would they expect to walk on to the tube without buying a ticket?
493 - Yes, Boris is trying to morph himself to be just like the loser he beat in the London elections. He is convinced this will win him the next London mayoral election.
Gordon Brown must now go away to morph himself into Michael Howard to win the next election. Oh I forgot, Gordon didn’t beat anyone last time round, or ever in fact. Perhaps in 2010 Cameron will try to morph into Gordon Brown after he has roundly beaten him.
499 Words of 3 syllables (probably 2) confuse her!
482, 489 I think Labour would like if at all possible to hold the GE either May or June 2009 - just before, or on the same day as, the Euros. Not earlier - Brown can’t risk accusations of opportunism or cutting and running after last October.
500 - “Je suis un genius economique. Ecoutez-vous up et vous might learn something”
“Non, imbecile Francais. Follow le advice economique de moi or je will hurl un nokia at votre tete”
261.
“Since then, the Bank of England has cut interest rates by two full percentage points, including today’s cut of 1.5 per cent …..”
Precisely what Vince Cable told them (and the world) they should do.
500- To be very frank, Blair’s accent is very very pronounced (he sounds like a caricature of English posh accents in French film). The difference is that, for some reason, English accent in French is not considered hilarious.
499
Is France a continent? The French have always thought so.
503
Agree, when I used to drive in London, there was nothing more annoying than being held up in Knightsbridge ‘cos a Merc. was parked outside of Harrods on double yellow lines, and some, ‘Lady’ was filling up her boot with goodies, CD plates much in evidence.
I seem to remember there was a Tory MP, (can’t remember who) who criticised Ken at the time.
509 Well his accent is probably better than 99.9% of Brits and 100% of British Prime Ministers. Chirac gave good English.
395- I’m sorry, but I just cringe at statements like ‘you should do this or that “if you believe in change”‘. How exactly does one believe in “change”? It’s flawed thinking like that that can herald an October Revolution or bring in Ayatollah Khomeini. Change is neither good nor bad in and of itself; the question is, better than the status quo in what way?
504. What was wrong with what Boris said? You Tories are weird sometimes, I end up defending the guy. Why shouldn’t diplomats pay their road charges? It’s a joke that they don’t.
510 - Certainly riding my dear little Brompton through the West End each morning, Diplomatic plated cars are only closely behind Range Rovers as being the most dangerously and thoughtlessly driven. Saw a fellow cyclist with a fine line in Scots accented invective nearly drag a D plate driver out of their car and beat them to a pulp outside the US Embassy earlier in the week.
502. Furthermore, on election night, after 11 declarations (which are less random than by-elections - since some seats compete to be first) you will invariably be able to calculate the overall national average swing to within +/-1%, usually less…
I don’t see how 11 by-elections can intrinsically be a less accurate predictor, although they are offset by about 4% from the subsequent general election swing….
nationwide reduce their svr by the full 1.5%……
506 In 1992 Major had to go to the country. He ran out of time. Brown does not need to go until 2010. If he went in 2009 there would be a justifiable charge that he was only going because worst times were ahead. This was a factor in 1970 when Wilson saw an opportunity and went early. When some bad news arrived just before election day it confirmed many electors’ believe that he had something to hide.
496. Didn’t realise you were out of work Martin. Best of luck in getting something sorted soon.
515 - Maybe because they aren’t held on the same day, with the same economic conditions, and the same newspaper headlines, in the context of a national campaign. Just maybe?
516 It’s an interesting one. The political thumb screws have been put on the banks haven’t they! Nice try lads, but you’re not the masters you once were.
501 - “Intriguely (if I have not been fed duff information,it was exactly 52 years before that,1904,that Missouri last failed to go with the national winner”
You have been fed duff information. Teddy Roosevelt won Missouri and the national election in 1904. However, it did go for the loser (William Jennings Bryan) in 1900.
Reid apparently intends to remove Lieberman from his committee chairmanship. The next issue, if this indeed happens, will be whether Lieberman will continue to caucus with the Democrats in spite of this humiliation.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081107/D949OCKO0.html
New thread open guys, don’t all rush at once.
New thread now up - thanks.
Double Carpet
520. They can’t hold out much longer – I reckon most will have fallen into line by Monday night.
496 - Don’t say you deliver party leaflets at a job interview (regardless of party). It has all the downsides of revealing yourself as a political animal with none of the countervailing benefits of it showing leadership and initiative like it would if you said you were deputy chairman of the constituency or actually ran campaigns.
502. No. 400,000 votes in representative constituencies would be meaningful. But statistically the question is how many by-elections would form a meaningful sample given the skewness of each constituency. The point is that random choice of by-elections is insufficient as a predictor, it must be both a random choice and the sample must be large enough to overcome skewness. Your methodology is finger in the air stuff - which you’ve already admitted by monkeying with the numbers. It might be ball park - but it is of highly dubious statistical validity.
520 No you’re not, and that poses a bigger problem for the Tories than Labour IMO. Labour accepted the need to grovel to the “masters of the universe” as the price of power, and also because their system appeared on the surface to be so successful. But most Labour members secretly hated the arrogance and greed of the City and now that bankers have been brought low by their own arrogance and incompetence few tears will be shed in Labour circles. No longer will politicians come running when bankers snap their fingers - the boot is now firmly on the other foot.
Labour will adapt easily to this situation - it always wanted to be there in the first place - but the Tories, who really did believe in the miracles of deregulation, will find it harder to operate in the new circumstances. This partly explains their recent silence IMO.
Afternoon all,
517 - It makes no difference if Brown combined the next GE, the shires & euro elections on the same day next June to save money given the labour party debt – which is an idea that has been floated by the Scottish secretary IIRC, as he will be battered on all fronts anyway. What can they really expect from the euro election other than at least falling behind even the LD’s & quite possibly UKIP on the share of the popular vote, Labour can’t really stand on a message of sticking up for Britain’s interest in the EU even though they have the brass neck to try it as I don’t put anything past this government whatsoever – they have sold us down the Brussels river for over 11 years with the so-called ‘red lines’ in the Lisbon Treaty which are built on sand. Labour’s refusal to give us a vote on the Lisbon Treaty supported by the LD’s to pass the ratification through parliament after all 3 main parties’s promised a referendum in their 2005 GE manifestos is an absolute disgrace.
444.
A lot of tory voters in Glenrothes would have voted tactically with the SNP hence a low tory vote
527. I haven’t monkeyed with anything. I’ve made a reasonable adjustment for Blaenau, and ignored H&H, while pointing out that inserting a reasonable hypothetical swing for H&H doesn’t alter the picture much. If others want to “monkey”, that’s up to them. I haven’t.
I don’t know what you mean by “skewness”, in the context of a constituency. I believe that by-elections are essentially random events, and collectively the number of voters involved is more than adequate as a sample. The metric I am examining is Con/Lab swing, not win/loss in a particular constituency.
530.
The only Tory voter interviewed at exit said he’d voted Labour, despite Brown being useless, because he thought the SNP were dangerous loons.
Surely the Blue loonies can spin that to be a secret ‘huge swing to Tories’?
There’ll be no humble pie from me: I predicted Labour would win.