Would ICM/Populus have had the LDs on 17+%?
November 19th, 2008
Were there enough 2005 Lib Dems in the MORI sample?
My apologies for the third post in succession on the Ipsos-MORI poll but it produced numbers that were so startling that it deserves further scrutiny.
Yesterday it was all doom and gloom for the Lib Dems over the MORI 12% yet a close study of the data raises the question of whether were there enough 2005 Lib Dem supporters in the sample?
It will be recalled that on May 5th 2005 the party led then by Charles Kennedy secured 22.7% of the vote. Labour by comparison chalked up 36.2%. So for every two Lib Dem voters last time there were just over three Labour voters. You would have thought then when respondents were asked how they voted last time that MORI would have found broadly similar proportions. They didn’t.
When the field-work was done over the weekend they found (see the panel above) about seven 2005 Labour voters for every two Lib Dems which, surely raises questions over whether the sample was politically representative.
It’s hard to make calculations because of demographic weightings but my back of an envelope sums suggest that with the same data the other telephone pollsters would have put Nick Clegg’s party at 16-17% almost all of the difference coming from Labour.
As I argued here yesterday getting the Lib Dem share right will be critical for pollsters as we head into the general election.
This touches a raw nerve within the polling industry because Ipsos-MORI is the only remaining national pollster that does not weight by past vote or party identifier. As a result UK Polling Report has taken special measures to marginalise MORI in the new polling average that it has just introduced.
Statement of disclosure. I have been a member of the Lib Dems since its foundation and have been a parliamentary candidate and a councillor. Would I have been raising this issue if MORI had found a much higher proportion of the sample saying they voted for the party last time than actually did so? I like to think that I would.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
So the Con lead is more like 7-8 points, which would actually be in line with other recent polls.
Does the lack of past-vote weighting make Ipsos-MORI more susceptible to outliers/large swings?
re 1. Lack of past vote weighting makes MORI much more turbulent than the other pollsters which have it. Just look at this list of recent Mori findings -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/mori
Compare it with ICM and you get a totally different picture.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm
Sorry if this appears twice, made another mistake typing in my e-mail address -
I recall reading a few years ago that Liberal Democrat voters are significantly less likely to recall who they voted for, which on the face of it could mean that weighting by past vote might actually lead to an overestimate of Lib Dem support - ie. you’d be giving too much weight to the party’s ‘core’ support.
I must be missing something there, though - presumably that point would have been considered by the majority of pollsters who do weight by past vote.
I still don’t think there will be an early election. Gordon has track record. He will bite his nails to the bone but there will be no decision.
The question is will this be the second non-election?
I really really hope there is an election soon.
I have no doubt at all that the Tories would win - the only question is as to the size of the majority.
Since getting rid of Labour would finally kill Lisbon dead and also the ID cards then whatever the majority it will eb enough for me.
Would anyone suggest Smithson’s second rule - that one should always take the poll with the best figures for the lib dems as their figure?
5. James Schneider: Would anyone suggest Smithson’s second rule - that one should always take the poll with the best figures for the lib dems as their figure?
I believe that would be Smithson’s Third Rule - the Second Rule is about Cameron in the news leading to increased Tory share.
Then, of course, there is the Smithson-Thomas Rule…
I note that the Sun has in its editorial today (the ‘Sun Says’ section) an absolutely unequivocal condemenation of Brown’s borrow to cut taxes policy. There is firm support for Cameron’s spend less to cut taxes policy. If Murdoch is reacting to narrowing polls and coming off the fence in support of Cameron then that will soon enough find its way into poll results (and the election result too).
6. What about the rule ‘a rogue poll is one you don’t like’
8. corporeal: What about the rule ‘a rogue poll is one you don’t like’
Ah, yes. I knew I’d forgotten at least one…
(Four threads ago, referring to LS)
It is an essential truism, universally acknowledged, that someone who accuses his opponent of being a “comedian” (instead of addressing the substance of the points made) thusly demonstrates the weakness of his own position. You are welcome to disagree with my views, as long as you accept that I am a serious politician and not a comedian. I presume you have bothered to watch the links provided, so that you know what it is that you are disagreeing with?
8. How about “Any poll which is conducted 18 months before the likely date of a G.E. can be discarded as being out of date by the time it matters”?
10. JohnLoony: You are welcome to disagree with my views, as long as you accept that I am a serious politician
If I accept that, then I have to relegate Gordon Brown from “most deluded British politician”.
I’ve just noticed that the scrolling list of odds in the box on the right gives odds of 1/7 that “Democrat” will be the Democratic Party’s candidate for president in 2012. Presumably this is a msipritn for “Obama”?
Great credit to Mike Smithson yet again. He proves why he is one of the best poll analysts and commentators in Britain. Well done.
What a great forum for debate as well. Well done to posters of all parties and none.
I think the rules are as follows (apologies to Mike if I am wrong.
1. A rogue poll is any poll that you disagree with.
2. When a selection of polls show a difference in party share of the vote the most accurate one is likely to be the one which shows Labour in the worst position
3. Er… not sure but actually I think James at #5 may well be right. As someone who would never vote Lib Dem ina amillion years it does seem top me that polls suggesting Lib Dem support is down around 12% are just plain wrong and that it does appear to be the case that the most accurate representation of likely Lib Dem support at an election is the poll which gives them the highest potential vote share.
I agree with your thread Mike , the other factors which reduce the LibDem headline figure in Ipsos Mori are the slightly different question wording and the very strict absolutely certain to vote filter . The ICM certainty to vote adjustment is far less strict and would normally add 1-2% to the headline figure compared to Mori .
If we go back to October’s Mori and ICM polls which had headline figures for the LibDems of 14 and 21 respectively , the Mori raw data was in fact better for the LibDems than the ICM and if each pollster had used the other’s raw data Mori would have had LibDems on 12-13 and ICM on 22-23 .
“The past vote figures are basically identical to last month’s (ie. MORI haven’t inadvertently over-sampled Labour supporters)” M.S.
Surely MORI have yet again over-sampled Labour supporters just with different results. Making small post hoc adjustments to account for demographics when half the sample think they voted for Mr Blair is inadequate.
I would prefer to see the sample first ruthlessly sifted for probability to vote and then adjusted to reflect the political demographic, other weighting can then be added to taste.
10. I watched your linked videos… it was an education. Hold me back from the your communal dinning rooms and people’s palaces. Whilst Ms Brer is clearly speaking from the heart, her one sided viewpoint is largely at odds with reality.
I did however learn that I am not getting old, she is quite pretty for a Stalinist.
One thing I find interesting is how convenient this poll was to the Labour disinformation campaign yesterday. Now the poll is exposed as dramatically poorly sampled, what does this show about the credibility of the Brown as saviour lie.
You can fool all of the people some of the time, or some of the people all of the time, but never….
The blogosphere is proving that there really is high quality output on the internet, c/o PB.com.
The Brown dictatorship has a lot to answer for and it is our duty to hold it to account. Every day without an election is an outrage against democracy.
18. You’re seriously suggesting they deliberately skewed their figures?
17. her brother is very cute as well
7. It is worth showing exactly what the SUN Says column has stated today
“”At last, the Tories seem to be finding their voice. They have decided to put hard-working taxpayers first — and dump their daft promise to match Labour’s bloated spending. The cost of running the State has DOUBLED to £600 BILLION a year since Labour took power. Yet, far from using the good years to save for a rainy day, the cupboard is bare. Taxes have rocketed, with little improvement in health, education or transport. Welfare bills remain high, despite the creation of three million new jobs. House prices are collapsing. The Pound is in freefall. Our only option is to take the axe to the bureaucratic monster strangling our job-creating private sector. That means swift cuts in both tax AND spending. Labour seems ready to gamble the entire economy on a “cut now, pay tomorrow” burst of tax reductions financed by ever-higher borrowing. That is the economics of the madhouse. We must show we mean business — in every sense of the word. The floor is yours, Mr Cameron. Now tell us precisely what you plan to do with it.”
This piece, more than any anything else, could be the one that swings support firmly back to the Conservatives as people start realising what the Government is doing.
As we all know, The Sun is the one paper that Labour are desperate to have on board and it would seem that, contrary to the Prime Minister’s statement, David Cameron is not alone in opposing unfunded tax cuts.
Despite your party affiliation, feel your quite right to question the low Libdem figure.
I’ve often wondered if one of the reasons there is a disparity between the polls and Labour’s actual on the day, figure could be this. Labour supporters when asked by pollsters their voting intentions say Labour, come the election vote tactically for the Libdems: result Labour % drops Libdems rises.
Guardian on that poll and its affect.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/nov/19/early-general-election-conservatives-labour
Election next June? Doubt it!
Mori Lib Dems are roughly, and smoothed, running around two percentage points lower than the ICM ones (looking at the links provided by Mike Smithson @ 2). Is that what all the fuss is about: two points?
Or is it the lower Mori figures since their new, improved, post-Boris methodology?
Last digit randomisation of phone numbers doesn’t work.
Can last digit randomisation be rescued by past vote weighting? Only if recall is accurate. If not, then it is likely to over-weight the committed which will artificially boost Lib Dem support even if, paradoxically, it underestimates their votes owing to the “none of the above” or protest vote element in Lib Dem votes.
The problem with MORI is that it does three things which other pollsters think odd: it doesn’t adjust for past vote recall, it controls demographics exclusively to scale down oversampling of a particular pro-Labour group (public sector workers), and it only counts people who are 100% sure to vote. The first point undoubtedly helps Labour and hurts the LDs in this poll. The second undoubtedly hurts Labour in favour of both other major parties (I’ll repeat the statistical argument if needed). The third usually hurts Labour - maybe not now if supporters are fired up. I don’t think one can blithely just look at the first factor and transfer 5% from Lab to LD.
The safe thing is usually just to compare like with like, as the LDs were undersampled last month too, weren’t they? So we can fairly safely say Labour has gained markedly over the month, but not what the exact lead is. An additional complication is that past vote recall isn’t perfect, perhaps especially for LibDems since they seem to have a chunk of impulse protest voters who may not remember they did it.
The Tory score looks perfectly normal. What is surprising about this poll is how low the Lib Dems are and how high Labour is. It is natural to seek an explanation of why this is.
Mori are not alone in having the Lib Dems on 12%, so that figure cannot by itself be regarded as an indication that it is an outlier. You may well be right about the impact of different methodologies, but since opinion polls are a snapshot and the election isn’t going to be next week, we have to decide which methodology is likely to be the most accurate predictor of the future (of course, come election time, we are more interested in which reading is the most accurate indicator of the present).
The Lib Dems’ low polling in all bar ICM is surely a consequence of their evaporation from the airwaves. If that continues, ICM will presumably also trend downwards in the next few months.
The Lib Dems are getting an interesting set of policies together and in some ways look more coherent than is usual for them. However, they need to grab the microphone if they are not to see a further decline in their positions.
23. Nick P that is very amusing disiniformation that I would only expect from a Mandelson cronie.
One poll shows the Conservative lead widening by over 5% to a 13% lead, and another shows the opposite.
There is no conclusive evidence that Labour has gained, unless you accept their is equally a big Conservative gain. Both gains cannot be true, and one poll must therefore be a rogue poll. We are discussing which one is more likely to be the rogue poll, and the evidence is mounting that it is more likely to be MORI - historically the most volatile and wildly innaccurate of the polling firms.
In any case Mike’s second law states that the least favourable poll to Labour is the most accurate one. So I am not surprised you’ve completely ignored it Nick P. Very convenient.
Thanks Mike - appreciate the insight into what could be a poll we all talk about as the first sign in 18 months or so.
Let’s see what ICM come out with - I’m surprised with such a low Lib Dem rating as we are starting to make progress with a distinctive set of policies that have strong credibility. Labour’s attacks on the Tories over the financial crisis are having real resonance, so not surprised there is a Con->Lab swing at present, but not quite sure what the Lib Dems are doing to lose so much support over to Labour at present.
Given that it is now possible to ban individuals from public service based on party membership can there be any denying that we are moving towards a Communist dictatorship.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7736794.stm
Since Feb 1974, when the Liberals recommenced fighting all (or most) seats, their average GB voteshare has been 19.9% (median 18.8%.)
The lowest was 14.1%, in 1979; the highest 26.0, in 1983.
FWIW I believe the LibDems will get about 18.5% next time.
There does seem to be a relationship between their average by-election performance and their general election performance..
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/libdems.jpg
At the moment their average BE change is +2.6%.
27 Yes. We are not moving towards a communist dictatorship.
And isn’t it high time that an investigation was launched into the taxpayer funded trade union ’slush fund’ used to finance the Labour Party to the tune of over £10 million every year.
Surely this money must be recoverable through legal action, as it was in the case of ‘homes for votes’ at it is essentially the theft of taxpayers money to fund the Labour Party.
May be this needs to become a major inquiry. Labour is stealing taxpayers money through the conduit of the trade unions to finance itself.
27. tres, I’ll note you down as a Communist then! Where do you think the gulags will be set up?
23 - I believe that Mori argue against using past vote weighting because it is so inaccurate. Those that do don’t use “proper” past vote weighting, they make all sorts of adjustments to correct for its known inaccuracy.
On the face of the figures it seems that Mori’s adjustment for public sector workers has been partially successful - it has managed to get a handle on the Conservative share of the vote. It is still clearly unable to work out the LibDem/Lab share (unsurprising since there is no particular reason to think that public/private sector is a good way of distinguishing the two.
As Bob Worcester always says, the key to polls is not the lead, it is the shares of the vote. Yet again the Conservatives are above 40% and this is perfectly in line with EVERY other pollster. It is reasonable to think that 40 is the towards the lower end of the MoE so their true share is probably 41-32.
Since the Conservatives cannot do too much about the movements, imagined or otherwise, between LibDem and Labour it would be very stupid of them to panic in response to it, and the way it is sometimes creating a narrowing of the lead.
*41-42 not 41-32
25 It could be that Mori is reporting a real volatility that exists in peoples intentions to vote but which the post sampling adjustments of other polls smooth away. Unless there is actually an election we do not know which poll is right - and even then that could be coincidence.
Research indicates a significant number of people only make up their mind on the day or even in the voting booth - if they split like rest of population then polls are “right”, if there is a later move either for change or for stability polls can all be “wrong”.
Note me down as a Communist also,Will L.Where will the gulags be set up ?
NIMBY !
I don’t know whether there is anything in this, but my guess would be that there is a solid core of LibDem voters who will support their party regardless - and who generally register a 10/10 certainty to vote. We have recently had relatively low general election turnouts (59%, 61%). The LibDems get out all their “pyscho-voters” - and as a consequence get 22% of the votes cast. These elections were foregone wins for Blair.
However, the result of the next election is wonderfully unknownable. So more voters get enthused to participate. Unfortunately for the LibDems, those voters being brought into politics are not fired up for their party - but instead former voters of both main parties (but primarily former sit-it-out Tories).
So in this environment, the LibDems get hit twice in polling: the actual number of voters plumping for their opponents rises; and the certainty to vote of their opponents also rises. This results in a double-dilution of the LibDem “pyscho-voters”. 22% could easily drop to 15% as a result. The balance is down to the party bleeding some support from their Iraq-war highs - the LibDems having no policies, no leader, no voice to project into the current debate.
I don’t see this changing over the next 18 months and stand by my tediously repeated prediction that the LibDems will get 13% at the next GE.
Minibus for the LibDems.
26 “we [LibDems] are starting to make progress with a distinctive set of policies that have strong credibility”
Do really believe that guff? Your party is navel fluff, only good for gazing at. 98%+ of the voters couldn’t pin a single policy on your party. And those 2% contain a chunk who still think you will raise taxes.
No voice. No policies. No point.
o/t, I noticed that in the BNP member report on the BBC, that earlier it had film of Grifin talking to someone with a Tory rosette on at a count. They’ve since re-edited it (maybe after a complaint).
More anto Tory bias from the BBC?
23. Nick you do talk nonsense sometimes. 23% a Protest Vote?
31 As I live in Budapest all I need to do is converse with my colleagues to see the difference between a communist dictatorship and a hysterical over the top outburst. Grow up.
….meanwhile in the ‘real’ world,where real men wager sums of money.
Ten out of nineteen think that the Tories will have an Overall Majority in the GE in 2010.
Six out of nineteen foresee a Hung Parliament next Spring….and
Three out of nineteen await a thumping victory for Gordon Brown and his fellow Santas this Christmas.
Jo reggelt, tres. It would be good to hear what the political fall out in Hungary has been from the IMF intervention.
why the fear of the BNP? new labour scares me shitless!
42 To be honest most people seem more concerned with the deteriorating relations with Slovakia than the IMF bail-out. There is no enthusiasm for either the governing Socialists or Orban’s mob.
I see that the Daily Telegraph website has a story “Parliament infested with vermin.”
When will they tell us something we don’t already know?
44 - I can’t blame them for that. A self-confessed liar and a Berlusconi imitator make Brown and Cameron look like political titans.
From today’s Sun..
“At last, the Tories seem to be finding their voice. They have decided to put hard-working taxpayers first — and dump their daft promise to match Labour’s bloated spending… Labour seems ready to gamble the entire economy on a “cut now, pay tomorrow” burst of tax reductions financed by ever-higher borrowing. That is the economics of the madhouse.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Brown’s dead rat media bounce coming off it’s peak ?
Jacqui Smith makes another howler - how long before she has to be replaced ? Tony “tough on crime” Blair would be an excellent Home Secretary - Labour would do well to bring him back.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:3703abc5-9205-4380-bc37-41d6033e2871
Asked about the publication of the BNP’s membership list, Jacqui Smith has just told Sky’s Eammon Holmes that serving police officers are not allowed to belong to political parties.
Mike
You will no doubt be happy to learn the site gets a mention on the prime candidate for “most cr*p political blog in the world!”
http://www.bobpiper.co.uk/2008/11/please_put_us_out_of_his_miser.php
39. Much of the Lib Dem vote is a protest vote, mostly against politics in general.
But so is much of the Labour vote - it’s a protest against reality.
My Lib Dem vote will be for a helpful MP who rebelled against the referendum whip. But yes, it is partly a protest against the larger parties who mean me no good, whereas the Lib Dems mean me no harm.
Re 49 - I love Bob Piper too.
49
What a t*sser. Is it possible he is a friend of Gabble’s? They both seeme to have the same detachment from reality.
48. It was entertaining to hear her floundering over the proposed new prostitution laws as well. She really is hopelessly out of her depth.
48-Belong to political parties or to certain political parties? I’d never heard about this before. I hope it’s not one of those Mandelsonian “conventions”.
“So in this environment, the LibDems get hit twice in polling: the actual number of voters plumping for their opponents rises; and the certainty to vote of their opponents also rises. This results in a double-dilution of the LibDem “pyscho-voters”. 22% could easily drop to 15% as a result. The balance is down to the party bleeding some support from their Iraq-war highs - the LibDems having no policies, no leader, no voice to project into the current debate.
I don’t see this changing over the next 18 months and stand by my tediously repeated prediction that the LibDems will get 13% at the next GE.” (Marquee Mark)
We have just - and regularly - have evidence that Lib Dem voters generally are actually LESS committed as a generality to their party vote. So quite why MM thinks the Lib Dem “pyscho-voters” should be capable of “double-dilution” or all the rest of the rubbish he is spouting, who knows! Yes, of course, Iraq is not the issue it was. Another factor is, of course, that a very popular well-known leader was swapped for 2 leaders in succession who did not have the same level of public recognition or popularity.
But the evidence Rod Crosby cites at 28, that the Liberal vote only dropped to 14% or so in 1979, when there had been an explicit linkage (Lib Lab pact) between the Libs and a very unpopular Labour Party. This time round despite overblown Tory claims, there is no such explicit link. And it would also be agree with Lib Dem in-house claims that current poll ratings of around 16 - 20% are well up there with other “peace time” poll ratings, which could well move up. Another morsel to throw in the pot is that, actually, the two byelections Lib Dems have done best in in this Parliament (Dunfermline and Bromley) have been either when the party was leaderless, or when a new leader has only just been elected. Why? I don’t believe Bromley was a “honeymoon” effect!
55. I thought being signed up to Nu Labour was compulsary to become chief of the Met. It seemed to be Iain Blair’s only attribute for the job.
Rod 28 I think you will find that back to 1964 the Liberal Party attempted to fight all seats, and that election also marked conspicuous success, hitting 3 million votes for the first time for quite a while.
58 As a general question - have we had enough polling or sizeable enough samples yet to look at Green Party ratings to see whether having a leader actually improves poll ratings / has no effect / depresses ratings? It is now a few months since Caroline Lucas’s election as their first leader.
58 - your devotion to your cause is admirable, but three different polling companies have you polling 12-14% and a fourth has the Lib Dems at 16%. You can’t refer to a 16-20% range and retain credibility.
29, it shouldn’t be permissible to throw someone out of their job because of their political leanings, provided they’re legal.
Excellent article. I previously said this poll didn’t feel valid, and it’s nice to have my gut instinct backed up by Smithsonian statistics.
58.”But the evidence Rod Crosby cites at 28, that the Liberal vote only dropped to 14% or so in 1979, when there had been an explicit linkage (Lib Lab pact) between the Libs and a very unpopular Labour Party. This time round despite overblown Tory claims, there is no such explicit link.”
Maybe the Libdems are just unlucky, but, I have noticed recently that their media airtime is beginning to sound like a Labour echo on the need for a Fiscal Stimulus and disagreeing the the Tories.
Last night on the 10pm evening news was the perfect example.
But what is happening right now, is some very distinctive clear blue water opening up between the Labour party and the Tories, while the Libdems are not producing a distinctive *third* voice with a good reason to deposit a protest vote with them.
Although I did read that their MEP’s are talking up the Euro?
30: Fascinating graph Rod, I think you are spot on…
63 - What if their political leanings interfere with their job? A black man would reasonably doubt a BNP supporter’s ability to keep the peace in an even-handed manner. The knowledge of the affiliation would be enough to interfere with the performance of the job.
MORI old and new are far too volatile to be credible. Aren’t they the polster who had the Tories on 52%? Ridiculous.
Cameron’s proposals have generally been very well received.
Brown’s economics are those of the madhouse. We will pay dearly unless he is stopped.
OT
If you invert the chart of Barclays it is making new highs.
If you are normal, a new low..
66. Either ban the BNP or don’t ban policemen from joining. This middle way is bizarre.
“Francisco Santos Calderón, the vice-president of Colombia, appealed to British users of the class A drug to consider the impact on the environment. He said that while the green agenda would not persuade addicts to give up, the middle-class social user who drove a hybrid car and was concerned about the environment might not take the drug if they knew its impact.”
Is this chap having a pop at someone we know?
69. How much have HMG lost on bank shares now - are we over £10BN ?
66, not everyone who votes BNP is white, shocking as that may seem. If the party is legal, then it’s outrageous to ban people from certain jobs for being a member. I don’t like the BNP, and I hope their moderate ascent goes into reverse today, but membership of it is not a crime, and throwing people out of work for having a political opinion which merely make it a party of martyrs.
71. Richard Prior ?
70 - I’m old-fashioned enough to believe in freedom of thought and to believe that those that express those thoughts must accept the practical consequences of doing so. An atheist would be debarred from being a vicar and a BNP supporter can be debarred from being a policeman. I wouldn’t ban smoking but I see no problem in making pubs smoke-free.
Who said this? [from Dizzy]:
“borrowing for this year and future years is therefore £27 billion (2003), £24 billion (2004), £23 billion (2005), £22 billion (2006) and £22 billion (2007).” Budget 2003
“borrowing for this year will fall to £34 billions (2004) and in future years fall further to £33 billions (2005), falling again to £29 billions (2006), then falling to £28 billions (2007), £24 billions (2008) and £22 billions (2009). Budget 2004
“[it] will be £34bn (2005) this year falling to £32bn (2006) next year, then falling again to £29bn (2007), falling to £27bn (2008), then to £24bn (2009) and then £22bn (2010).” Budget 2005
“[borrowing] will be £37bn this year, £36bn next year, then £30bn, falling to £25bn, £24bn and £23bn in 2010-11″ Budget 2006
“the figure for [borrowing] this and future years will be £35 billion (2007) - over 1 billion less than forecast at the Pre Budget Report - then 34 (2008), 30 (2009), 28 (2009), 26 (2010) and 24 billion (2011)” Budget 2007
75, your analogy is flawed. An atheist doesn’t believe in the god the vicar worships. The BNP do believe in the rule of law (officially).
Police Officers have not been allowed to take an active part in politics, including being a member of any political party, for many, many years - I think since the Police Act 1919.
It is essential that police offciers are impartial and are seen to be impartial (look at what happens when this rule, convention, bit of common sense is perceived to have been broken - Ian Blair et al).
The ban on active politics was introduced for very good sound reasons. It is not a move towards a totalitarian state.
78, really? I had no idea cops couldn’t join any party.
Hmm. Even more remarkable and repugnant then that Iain Blair all but campaigned for Labour at the last election.
60. Don’t think so. 1964 saw only 365 Liberal candidates, while Feb 1974 saw 517, the largest number since 1906!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
It couldn’t be our dissemblng “great leader” by amy chance?
66/73 et al.
It cannot be one rule for one political party, and another for some.
I can see some justification for banning police/ armed forces from joining political parties on the grounds that they hold the ‘monopoly on violence’ in the UK, and we don’t want them becoming politicised.
However, if they are allowed to be a member of a political party then the principle stands. If they allow their prejudices to get in the way of doing the job (same goes for Doctors who won’t prescribe contraception on grounds of conscience who receive state funds in my eyes), then they should be disciplined/ expelled.
58 Since the Scots/Welsh elections the much vaunted Lib Dem by-election machine has stuttered and the party has been sidelined. Polls give same story of Lib Dems being squeezed at national level. There doesn’t seem to be a focussed strategy and, despite Vince Cable, the LDs seem irrelevant to the current economic debate.
73
The BNP are a Socialist party.
I can see no point in people voting for a bunch of authoritarian incompetents when we already have an existing bunch of authoritarian incompetents in power who have more experience.
Mike, picking up on the very last sentence of your introduction to this thread, is it not the case that the Tories are even more under-represented in this Mori poll than are the LibDems?
81, yes. Unfortunately the agents of Eastasia were able to alter Big Gordon’s entirely accurate forecasts in a vain effort to make him appear an economic incompetent who couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery.
66. What about someone who was a member of a radical (but not illegal) islamist organisation, who might have some very discriminatory views on gays and women? Should that person also be barred?
any organisation using this list to sack or disbar people from work or in any other using it is effectively breaking the data protectin law imo and I woudl suggest its then fair game to name personal details of any person.
Funny how peadophiles details are protected by the same people who seem to take great pleasure in BNP members details being released. How many smashed windows of houses with young kids in them will be done as a consequence of this action.
The home secratary should act to totaly condemn this and sto it in its tracks if she really believed in democracy rather than bullying
87. Yes, IMO
70 Certainly police have historically been banned from joining any political party. Are they now allowed to join parties generally?
62 OK in the last month 14 - 18% seems to be a more central range of Lib Dem ratings. I don’t think that invalidates the general point I was making. Earlier in the 90s and in the shadow of the formation of the Lib Dems from Liberals and SDP midterm figures were often in single figures - the 1992 GE figure (which was higher than 1997) was still pretty creditable.
Christina, much as it may wind people here up, the Euro is looking a pretty good long term option, and frankly if you can’t look at joining it now, with all the long-term positives, then when can you?? It is here to stay, after all.
77 - The analogy works. The consequences of being a BNP member in the eyes of most members of the public would be to undermine fatally any confidence in the proper performance of their duties. In a job that entails regulating the public, that is rightly a disqualification.
yes Jacqui Smith its ok you saying that you dont mind people knowing that you are a member of the labour party but you have guards protecting you and I dont actually think you want people to know yor personal phone number do you?
What a disgrace she is making light of a potentially serious public order issue here?.
Stevens loses his Alaska Senate seat after the count of remaining ballots :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27789536/
Thank God sane, normal people can see through this gross deception instantly:
the crimes of the Eastasians will not go unpunished!
See Beeb! I can do this stuff - gissa job (preferably at a satisfactory rate of remuneration)
I am suprised by the number of people ascribing great influence to the “Sun Says”. This tends to swing around all over the place and then settle on the party that Rupert Murdoch thinks will win the election so that he can claim influence over the result.
Cameron and Osborne need to buld credibility with serious economic commentators and unfortunately nearly everyone thinks that there remedy is flawed and that we do need to increase spending in order to mitigate the recesion, whereas their approach would turn into a slump.
Personally, I think it is a desperate attempt to say something different to avoid the poll slide but probably will accelerate it.
66. By your logic, members of the BNP should be barred from all professions and jobs. A BNP sweetshop owner might be seen as not smiling enough at his young black customers. A BNP accountant might work less hard on the tax returns of his Muslim clients. A BNP football player would encourage racist supporters into the game.
And so on and so forth.
Morris Dancer is right. Either ban the BNP or shut the F up.
The BNP are a legal party, membership is not a crime, therefore they should be allowed to do any job they like, as with members of Sinn Fein, the SWP or Respect. IF they are racists, and that is seen to affect the way they do their job, THEN they can be prosecuted.
It’s yet another example of the liberal-left mindset. Freedom of speech and political tolerance is loudly extolled, and yet in practise it is extended only to those who have the “correct” opinions.
Odious.
As for Jacqui Smith’s new laws on commercial sex, why doesn’t she just make it a crime to have male hormones and have done with it?
87 - yes.
88 - trouble is, when you get sites like Redwatch which is more than happy to publish names/addresses of extreme left wingers (and one presumes that some on that BNP list have indeed taken advantage of such information), it doesn’t really help any.
90 Why would you want to join the Euro? I think a lower £ assuming it doesnt come with a fall in gilts is good. Why would you want interest rate policy to be managed by the ECB juggling the demands of multiple countries in monetary policy terms?
I am eventually expecting the Euro to fall as people realise the Euro economies are also stuffed. But seriously - having control of monetary policy and being able to depreciate is a bit of a godsend at the moment.
re the BNP in public service jobs-I think you have to trust the person to separate poltical belief from their work which most people manage -maybe not Ian Blair mind!!
Most religions including islam and judasim say they are superior to others -ie you go to hell if not a believer etc -you could askthe question of whether a muslim police officer is then going to treat non believers and fellow muslims diffeent in his work–Again I trust that muslim copper to be able to separate the religion fromt he job so why cannot the BNP members do that also?
I don’t know if someone posted because it’s an old article (yesterday) but has the same view as Mike that people underestimate Osborne:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-osborne-is-not-to-be-underestimated-1023117.html
95 - it’s called managing the 24 news cycle.
A positive spin in a Sun leader may not win you an election, but a negative one can certainly damage you.
96, prostitution should be legalised, regulated and taxed.
91, really? I think that’s debatable, given the BNP’s rise in popularity, for good or ill.
If cops can’t join any party, that’s fair enough. But if this is BNP-only, it’s out of order.
Interesting article, Mike, and certainly it supports the view that the Mori poll looks odd. However, it is also true that the LibDems have been doing unexpectedly badly in by-elections recently, so it looks as though there is some real squeeze going on here.
In the short term, a lot will depend on how Monday’s Pre-Budget Report is received. The government have a difficult balancing act here; too little in the way of giveaways, and it will seem like a damp squib. Too much, and the markets will be spooked and the narrative will shift to Labour’s financial irresponsibility.
79 Ok maybe “close links” between Blair and Livingstone, played up by the media, of course, but your assertion is way over the top IMO. Not defending Ian Blair of course (or the blessed Ken!)
91. Very slippery slope though…where do we draw the line? What personal views must one hold to be considered unfit ‘by the majority’ to carry out police duties? Very racist or just mildy so? Virulently anti-homosexual (see my case above) or just to a degree that might make you treat that group a little unfairly..etc.
And your majoritarian test has another flaw, too. It’s perfectly possible that ‘a majority’ might think that cracking down hard on a minority was the right course of action by the police - and that policemen who disagreed were not capable of properly maintaining public order. Presumably the minority in such a case might think differently…
104, regarding by-elections, you can’t read too much into Tory or Lib Dem fortunes in safe Labour seats with the SNP in second (to begin with anyway). Plus C&N was Tory-Labour and Henley was very safe Tory, and Haltemprice[sp] was uncontested by the Lib Dems.
So, although they clearly aren’t doing great, you can’t deduce much from the recent by-elections.
105, no. Iain Blair appeared on TV in the run-up to an election openly supporting Labour’s policies and decrying those who opposed them. You can’t get much more party political.
96 - Tosh. A policeman has public duties to keep the peace. If you can’t see a difference, the exit to the argument is thataway.
Most Muslims are homophobic, and many of them think gays should be thrown off tall buildings, as prescribed in the Koran.
Presumably all Muslims should be barred from front line public services such as the police, as no gay person could possibly expect fair treatment from a copper who wants to see them murdered.
No?
Someone please point out to me the difference between this example and that of the BNP.
As, hold on, I’ve got it. Muslims are generally BROWN so they can’t be touched. BNP members are generally WHITE so they are fair game.
109-why do you assume a BNP memeber does not have the same ability to separate his politics/beliefs from his job than say a muslim or jew or liberal or indeed a communist?
Ted, actually I am seeing evidence of even Vince being squeezed out of economic debates recently - last night’s Newsnight being a very rcent example. As for your other point re-byelections, I implied that in my post. Although, of course Liberal and Lib Dem performance has always been a lot better in those seats where they might “have had a chance”. The poor performance at Henley was especially disappointing.
109. That’s not even an argument. You know you’re wrong - see my point at 110 - hence your desire to end the debate.
Three points which may (or may not) help.
(1) Cameron has recovered the “natural” Conservative vote which they couldn’t get out in any of the last three elections. This should be enough to ensure that his is the largest party in the next Parliament. For an overall majority, he has to win over genuinely pragmatic “floating” voters. I suspect there is a significant overlap between these and what our cousins call 2low information” voters. Some polls suggest that he is doing so, others don’t. If in fact he can’t reach out beyond his natural support, his majority will depend on how the non-Tory vote splits.
(2) The Lib Dems will put on votes during the campaign. They always do, and always for the same reason. The mutual attacks of the other two parties turn off some voters (I would suggest particularly women, might be interesting to see if past polling and exit polling supports this thought) who turn to them because they seem “nice”.
(3) If MORI are going to weight public sector workers they should also apply the same weighting to public sector pensioners. It is likely that their voting pattern is closer to that of public sector workers than it is to that of the electorate as a whole, and they are likely to answer pollsters (have the time, “altruistic bias”). MORI’s methodology may still undersample Tories.
All that said, any single poll should be treated with caution. But if this does turn out to represent where the polls stand during the next few months, yes, there will be an election next year. It’s a big “if” IMHO.
112, probably because his answer to every problem is to firstly agree with the government, and secondly to call for state intervention. Remember his hissyfit over Barclays *gasp!* raising money privately? How dare they?!
I used to live with two BNP members years ago who were paramedics–neither gave any indication they treated non-whites different from whites
104. Yes Richard - and the manoeuvrings this week by Cameron & Osborne need to be seen as trying to influence the major behind the scenes conflict which is going on between different government factions and senior Treasury officials about how the PBR will be framed. By raising the issue of borrowing and sterling risks, the Tories are implicitly siding with the cautious voices and trying to panic the government into overcaution…
114, sound analysis.
96. I have to say I agree. Not that I would hire anyone who was a member, but either we proscribe the organisation or we don’t. The BNP are odious and stupid, but they remain legal.
Mike
The points you make about the Ipsos-MORI poll simply underline once again that unless a poll is weighted specifically to be politically representative, its picture of party support has no value. Weighting to correct an over-sampling of public sector employees is all well and good, but it is not a proxy - or substitute - for past vote weighting. The correlation between public sector employment and party supported just isn’t that high.
It is very revealing that Ipsos-MORI told you they made further checks on the data, and that the first of these was to compare the recalled past vote in this poll with their previous one. They reported that there was no meaningful difference between the two. But what if there had been a big difference? Would they have weighted the new poll by past vote (and if so on what basis)? The fact that they told you they’d checked the past vote profile shows that they accept past vote as an indicator of how politically representative a sample is - making it all the more mystifying that they refuse to use it as a weighting factor.
90: Tim13 at 09:39
Just looked up the current Police Regulations on the Government’s web site and the ban on taking an active part in politics is still there (Schedule 1 - Restrictions on the Private Life of Members of Police Forces - Item 1). I did wonder if with the advent of the Human Rights Act it might have been removed, but it hasn’t.
So coppers are not allowed to take an active part in politics and this rule has nothing to do with the BNP.
120 - Interesting observations. Perhaps Bob Worcester or Julia from MORI will respond. I hope they challenge Populus to a duel to take place in Bedford High Street.
Gentlemen, clipboards at dawn.
A number of Civil Service employees have long been banned from being a member of, or associating with the communist party. I recall a friend of mine applying to join forensics and he was even supposed to declare the fact that his grandad had been a CPGB member. I didn’t see the Conservatives objecting to that rule.
Also, I don’t recall the Conservatives standing up for the freedom of association of GCHQ workers. Could someone explain to me how just having a trade union membership card would have prevented them from fulfilling their duties?
However, obviously the Conservatives are very concerned about the rights of BNP members…
The argument against the existence of the BNP is a classic example of how liberals preach tolerance and free expression of opinion…until somebody disagrees with them.
111 - I don’t doubt some BNP members might keep their views out of their duties. But the public can reasonably and do assume that they won’t.
110 - I would agree about Islamists, as I have already said. I disagree about Muslims as a whole, about whom you are casually and incorrectly generalising.
117 In an article in the Independent, the tension between Gordon Brown (for large spending increases) and the Treasury (more on Cameron’s wavelength) is highlighted. Interestingly McRae posits that the markets trust Darling more than Brown, due to the failure of latter’s economic policy.
Its a good article making the point that Brown want to gamble all the weapons he has in one go and will have nothing in reserve if downturn is prolonged - Ken on here last night pointed out that a £30bn boost this year couldn’t be reversed easily until growth was high enough (so increased spending levels would need to be held) and if the initial stimulus didn’t work then more and more debt would need to be added with less effect each time (the Japanese scenario).
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-recessions-serve-a-useful-purpose-1024515.html
120. I’m not sure what a significant difference in past vote would have looked like either -
October MORI had CON 23%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10.5%
November MORI had CON 21%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%
Proportionally that’s rather a lot less Lib Dems.
Bad news for the government: immigration rose yet again in 2007.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gcOYVZrm1LgQeyXacaL9xPAEWB9A
571,000 people immigrated into the UK, with 340,000 leaving. That’s a net influx of quarter of a million, or thereabouts. A Quarter of a Million, in just one year.
Immigration is the dog that hasn’t barked for a while. I wonder if it might snap at Labour’s heels as the recession kicks in.
128 - where there is economic strife, social strife isn’t far behind.
Wonder if the next election will be won/lost not on the pound in your pocket, but your window getting smashed
Personally I’m on the fiscal restraint side but it strikes me that if Brown really wants to do a bold fiscal stimulus to encourage aggregate demand something like cutting VAT by 5% (notwithstanding the EU floor of 15% but it would equate to circa £30bn) would have the best chance of succeeding and would benefit the whole economy - business’s, individuals, unemployed etc alike. It would also be relatively quick and simple to implement and administer and increased spending might offset the cost. (I know the maths is more complicated than I’ve indicated here)
But he won’t and I suspect there will be large numbers of taxpayers who will wonder why they aren’t getting any real benefit from a tax hike they will have to pay for in the future.
123. Communists were rightly kept out of sensitive areas in the Civil Service because their primary allegiance was to a foreign power and they were therefore a potential serious national security risk.
[128] If the economy’s as f***ed as most of you think it is, why do more people want to come here than want to leave?
BTW, Smith’s prostitution law is the wrong way to tackle the problem. Legalise it, regulate it, and tax it. The law should be reason free from passion. But it’s not, and that’s why social libertarian policies are ignored in favour of “sending out a message”.
128. Good news for the economy though…
130. A big risk for the government in the PBR is this - if they target tax reductions on the low-paid, and also have a plan to claw back the deficit in the out years by raising taxes again, then its a clear lose-lose situation (over several years) for most middle class floating voters. The ‘gainers’ won’t suffer much, if at all, from the clawback because they pay hardly any tax anyway…
125. What utter and pathetic piffle. The vast majority of Muslims, by definition, think homosexuality is wrong and criminal and should be punished. It may pain your halfwitted liberal sentiments to admit this, but it is nonetheless true.
A sizeable chunk of Muslim opinion no doubt believes in the full Koranic stricture: that gays should be executed.
Do you deny that homosexuality is forbidden in Islam? Or do you just think Muslims are lying about their true beliefs?
123. Presumably, during the Cold War, when we were at threat of nuclear annihilation by communist Russia, communism was justifiably regarded as questionable in high public office. That’s a little different to the situation with the BNP now. I don’t think Nick Griffin has nukes aimed at London.
As for the present day situation, I think communists should be allowed to join the civil service, just as I think Muslims, BNP members, Mormons, Jehovah’s Witnesses and anarchist gay ecowarriors should be allowed to join the police.
Indeed I am sure commies are allowed in the civil service, aren’t they? After all, our ex communist friend Nick Palmer is a member of the government.
So there we have it… Result of the next election…
votes
Con 37.7%
Lab 34.7%
LD 18.5%
Oths 9%
seats
Lab 295
Con 271
LD 50
Oth 3
Nats 13
NI 13 (sans SF)
Dimbleby: “So, Mr. Cameron, with PR you would have been leading the largest party today..”
Clegg: “We will back any party that promises to reform this outrageous voting system..”
Cameron: “Get stuffed..”
Brown: “I’ve always thought AV was a fairer system..”
Clegg: “It’s a deal, with Vince as Chancellor..”
132 To milk the benefits system?
132. Wealthy, succesful people want to leave, poor people want to come.
127, 120. Well it’s dog eat dog this morning!
132, 134. Depends who these migrants are. Hardworking Polish cleaning ladies and enterprising young American businessmen - good.
Aged and infirm dependants of previous migrants with a total lack of English - not so good.
People just here to blow us up on buses, bad.
So all that froth yesterday and this poll with its flaws corrected would be roughly in line with all the rest recently.
119-Would you sack them once you knew they were a member? Say they had become a member while working for you. Or indeed, even if they had been a member at the interview stage. Is it legal to ask these questions at interview in any case? (not sure..)
But I think the bottom line is if it’s a legal party then membership of it cannot be grounds for dismissal (it seems policemen can’t join political parties, fair enough).
139. Evidence?
141. Be different to the last lot of bus-blowers then Sean, most of who IIRC were born and raised in England.
re 19 Ah, we know that this poll is flawed, but do you really think any of this will make it into the MS media? And Labour MPs will still crow that they’ve almost caught up.
137, I’m sure people here would be willing to bet against that prediction. (Not me. Not cowardice so much as lack of money. Not making any bets until I can lay some of my present positions).
146, it’s self-delusion becoming self-harm. If Mike’s right, this still points to a Tory majority and is at the nice end of polls for Labour.
135-That’s it isn’t it. Gordon will not be able to resist “targetting”. He will make a mish mash as always and there will be no effect.
Anopther Labourite con.
Just been looking at the BNP members’ list. Seems one of the knuckle draggers got suspended from the party for having an “inappropriate tattoo”.
Answers on a postcard…
144. Immigration in the last 11 years has been very bad for public services. No wonder spending has been so ineffective in the NHS.
It makes me laugh - the Labour do-gooders do not seem to think it is a problem: Eastern Europeans coming over here with Preganant wives, staying having a couple of lovely kiddies on the NHS and then buggering off again. How can that be good for Britain?
136. There is an important difference however. Islam does not control its membership. Muslims cannot control who are other muslims. There is no absolute hard and fast distinction between who is and isn’t a muslim, some islamic groups claim others are not muslims and vice versa. Within Islam there are arguments that homosexuality is permissible.
The BNP by contrast is an organisation that does control its membership and have a hard and fast distinction, meaning (or at least suggesting) greater commonality of views.
136 - Homosexuality is condemned by Christians as well. The BNP reject many of the laws relating to equal treatment. Most Muslims are prepared to live within the general framework of the law as it stands and are not looking to build a new Caliphate. As usual, I suspect you are in search of an argument and willing to argue any old nonsense to get one. Unfortunately I now have a tedious meeting, so you will need a new playmate.
151. Believe you me Martin if you lived in London and needed a tradesman over the last five years, you would have a very different view of the Poles.
re 56 yes she got a right pasting from Evan Davies of all people omn Today this morning.
155 - *snigger*
144. To move to Canada, Australia, NZ or the USA you need to have a profession and money in the bank. The requirements differ, but they are along the same lines.
“Official figures have previously indicated that about 50,000 Britons head for Australia each year and about 30,000 for New Zealand. Last year, a record 400,000 left the country to live abroad for at least 12 months.
…
The most popular is Australia. About 220,000 more Britons have gone to Australia than vice versa between 1996 and 2006. And 40,000 more Britons than Canadians have switched between the two countries.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1064526/Flight-white-Britons-UK-leaps-70-000-year—population-rising-Eastern-Europeans-come-Britain.html
If VAT was cut, it would make it even more likely that the inflation rate would fall below zero.
If this were to happen, what would happen to index linked pensions (including the index link to the state OAP? Would they actually be cut?
I personally think that Brown’s economics is deranged, and has got us into this mess in the first place, put if the bank rate fell to say 1% the cost of servicing government loans would fall, and inflation went minus, the cost of pensions, etc would also fall; so theoretically the government might extract iteself from its self-created muddle
104.”In the short term, a lot will depend on how Monday’s Pre-Budget Report is received. The government have a difficult balancing act here; too little in the way of giveaways, and it will seem like a damp squib. Too much, and the markets will be spooked and the narrative will shift to Labour’s financial irresponsibility”
Richard, that neatly sums up the problem for Brown in No10 & Darling in No11.
That is why we are getting such an incoherent and inconsistent message coming out from the government this week, they are spinning all right, but its a spray paint effect in about three different directions, which is hyping up expectations.
Brown is trying to bribe the electorate with big promises of a fiscal stimulus in the form of big tax cuts and increased public spending. He is trying to back that up by even bigger assertions about his standing and the message from the global economy.
Darling is running around behind trying to hose these expectations down and prevent them spooking the markets/Financial sector. He knows the public debt is dangerously high already and any further borrowing could bring about even bigger problems down the road.
And wee Yvette was trying to deflect the Tory arguments of responsible cuts by saying the government would do this so much better.
Has Brown over hyped the UK’s economic situation and his own abilities to fantasy levels? He has really raised expectations about the contents of the PBR, and from the soundings coming out of the Treasury, it looks like he just will not be able to deliver what he has promised. Could we see the Smithson-Thomas rule that LS mentioned up thread proving true once again?
I suspect that Osborne’s warnings about Sterling resonated in the Treasury, in fact I suspect that Darling would have given his right arm to be able to do what Cameron and Osborne did yesterday. Sadly for him, he is not his own boss.
153. You could have just said, OK I lost the argument, and saved yourself the extra time.
152. Ludicrous.
“but” not “put” in para 3 (apols)
155. He’s clearly got her fingered as thicko who can be easily bullied and made a fool of. He’s quite right as well.
154. Some relatives of mine live in London - they never had a problem getting good trades people.
The economic benifits of an Immigrant trades person to the economy must be close to Zero. if they have a wife who has a couple of kids whilst they are here and they have now left because Brown has left the economy so weak it has taken it’s toll on sterling.
Think about the cost to the NHS for a women giving birth etc - must be £10,000?
…Writing in today’s FT, Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard and former chief economist of the IMF and Carmen Reinhart, professor of economics at Maryland University stress this point and the lack of responsibility taken by politicians for their role in the current crisis….
…We do not mean to imply that the political system alone is responsible for the lax discipline that has led to our current predicament. Overly optimistic assessments by rating agencies and negligence by investors, as well as malfeasance in the financial sector, certainly did play a role. But politicians had a big hand in fanning the excessive leverage that lies at the root of the current crisis. Start with a tax system, particularly in the US, that favours debt finance. Add the favourable treatment given to partnerships, including hedge funds and private equity, that are largely taxed at very low capital gains rates instead of much higher income tax rates…
130. Omigosh, No. Cutting VAT would reduce tax revenues for little gain in economic activity. One suggestion is to cut for a brief period in which case, we borrow growth from whenever VAT is restored. All the spending that would have taken place anyway would benefit from the tax cut, the marginal effect would be reduced by the high marginal propensity to import (food a relative non-import, is already zero VAT rated). Imports reduce the demand multiplier. The largest impact would be on the rich, the least on the poor as the poor consume more zero rated products.
158-Would cost of government debt necessarily fall?
Government debt (bonds) are priced by the market. A base rate of 1% would not imply government leanding at 1%, just that banks lend to each other at 1%.
157. Sorry, where is your evidence that only poor people come to the UK?
Smith’s prostitution law is likely to have the effect — politically speaking — as Back to Basics.
The tabloids jornalists will be raising a glass of chmapge to the new law.
Politicians spent much more time away from home than average, they have much more opportunity. So, for sure, the Joe Ashtons, Piers Merchants, Jeffrey Archers are not the only offenders.
Pb.com should be a opening a book on the political allegiance of the first politician likely to fall foul of the new laws.
167. 200,000 people in London are French. Most of them are in professional jobs and are very well-educated. Again, where is your evidence? You have none. Perhaps you can do another trawl on the Daily Mail website for emigration data.
159
Brown/Darling
Two voices for two audiences.
I wonder which one is telling the truth…
Thank you, Mike. As things stand, these IPSOS-MORI polls are hopelessly misleading when their polling samples are so far out of line with the 2005 election. It also pours cold water on some of the comments made on the threads last night. Happy to have been placing bets on a 2010 election and a Tory majority at the odds on Betfair yesterday afternoon/evening.
163. “The Government’s economic arguments for its open door policy were torn apart in the Lords, as they concluded record levels of immigration have left any benefits “small or close to zero”.
Members of an influential committee of peers, including two former Chancellors and several former Cabinet ministers, said ministers must set an “explicit target range” for immigration and make rules to keep within that limit. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3460080/Immigration-benefits-wildly-overstated-say-Lords.html
165. So a VAT cut fails because
1) Bang for buck lousy
2) Equity lousy (rich benefit)
3) Impact on employment lousy (no direct impact, and 1 above).
4) Good in administration terms - quite simple
If I can sum up this thread so far……
This poll is seriously flawed as was the Yougov one the other day. ICM is the one to follow until it too finds less Tories at which time we’ll reconsider……..
The Sun’s editorial is the one with it’s finger on the pulse-it’s been linked to four times so far…..
And all Muslims should be thrown off the Brooklyn Bridge because SeanT is a prejudiced bigot….
Have I missed anything?
164 There is a tiny mea culpa in the G20 Comunique
“Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions.”
In some advanced countries? Which could they be then?
169. Calm down. I would never claim only poor people come here. The fact is that that around 200 000 people come here every year, outweighing the numbers who leave. Of those who leave the majority are professional people, of those who arrive the majority are not.
170 Exactly. These stories are spin designed on the one hand to reassure the markets that the government won’t be too reckless and on the other to reassure taxpayers that the PM is on their side.
Treasury always wants to be seen to be restraining politicians desire to throw cash around - that is part of its role.
These stories do not mean there are real policy divides in government.
173 - Ken, I agree that 3. (impact on unemployment) would be a useful component of any stimulus effort, but short of simply expanding Civil Service headcount, do you think government has any real ability to directly boost employment rates heading into a recession?
174.. With reference to Immigrants & Muslims I should think you are one of the biggest they are wonderful but not living next door to me!
174.”Have I missed anything?”
Not sure, depends how many people you want to a pop at in one go on here today?
158 That’s a good point which I wouldn’t dispute and I’m sure there are other consequences. I was really making the point that any decent fiscal stimulus, if it is to work, needs to be bold, simple to understand and reach across the economy. Also if fiscal stimulus works then arguably it will have the effect of staving off deflation - isn’t that one of the main arguements for the stimulus in the first place?
Polls, polls, polls, hey? Don’t they get the political blogosphere in a pickle?
People argue over too fine a points with regards to polls, methodology etc. The simple fact at the present is that the polls have generally shifted more favourably towards Labour, less favourably towards the Conservative Party and the Lib Dems.
The reality is, as I have argued time and time and again - the most accurate poll at estimating an election figure is the one taken on the last day possible before that said election - regardless of methodology. That is because it is the least ‘noise free’ and has the greatest possible proportion of those who have made up their mind.
Sure it is important that polls get into a fairly accurate ball park figure, but ultimately polls should merely approximately reflect what people are doing and where the movement of opinion is going.
On those grounds, Mori merely gives a similar story to YouGov, in that Labour has been more effective with its message recently and has cut the Tories lead. The Tories have become less effective and hence have lost quite a bit of the very soft support, exposing the slightly harder ’soft support’ (perhaps the very soft support was disaffected Labour, and the slightly harder is disaffected Lib Dem - but that is speculation).
Now the question is, does all this movement against the Tories lead us to believe their will be a run on Tory support? After all, it was not that long ago that that particular currency was stronger than it has been for years. Or is that just unpatriotic of me to say so?
181. It didn’t work in Japan. And as inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena, that is hardly surprising.
174.”Have I missed anything?”
Most of the last thirty years I would say, Roger.
The Heff is pontificating against the TOP TORY duo in the Telegraph as usual, but he is right on one thing; the inability of the Conservatives, (up till now) of landing good punches on our Great Leader.
All down, as I have said, to dreadful PR and a very poor information, (read propoganda) dept., at Central Office.
Also down to a lack of a political philosophy?
177.”170 Exactly. These stories are spin designed on the one hand to reassure the markets that the government won’t be too reckless and on the other to reassure taxpayers that the PM is on their side.”
NickC, do you really think that is perfectly sound way for a government to behave to the electorate and the Financial markets at this time? What if they both end up feeling they have been conned?
Roger: 174.”Have I missed anything?
Tricky.
How about: “I am sad, bearded, hypocritical old twat now retired from a tragically pointless career making adverts about sanitary napkins so I am now reduced to forcing my redundant opinions on younger people via a blog?”
177 and Brown finds it advantageous politically to have a continuing crisis rather than the drudgery of a recssion. So he’s issuing dire warnings of deflation despite his Government and BoE forecasts that that’s a risk but not in their projections. In a crisis people are more likely to turn to the person who can do something rather than look to an alternative leader down the line (though they may be thinking that a change will be needed once we’ve got through this mess).
145. “Be different to the last lot of bus-blowers then Sean, most of who IIRC were born and raised in England.”
They could be NHS Doctors (the description which the BBC confines them to) from the Middle East who target airports and night-clubs (and are, purely incidentally, strict islamic fundamentalists).
189. If policemen are required to pass ‘diversity tests’, should immigrants be, too?
178. The government can boost employment by lowering taxes on employment - so employer’s NI etc. They can also try the Tory JSA scheme (relatively ineffective as it will be, it would probably be more effective than just cutting employer’s NI - which would cost a lot and not be that effective - too much deadweight loss, which is why the Tory scheme isnt as totally daft as some painted it. It’s cr@p, but all stimulus policies are.)
Anyone think that the very ordinariness of the people on the BNP membership list just might de-toxify them? Radio 5 Live were picking up on this this morning. Hobbies listed included walking, caravanning, wildlife, knitting…not a mention of being pretendy Nazis.
(Although I note that the link no longer works…which will be some relief to those whose membership was marked “BUT DON’T TELL ANYONE - WORK WOULD BE A PROBLEM!” or suchlike. Probably been around on the net long enough to get some extra work for 24 hour glaziers, however…)
181.”I was really making the point that any decent fiscal stimulus, if it is to work, needs to be bold, simple to understand and reach across the economy.”
Its not going to work now, and it will be because of Brown’s stewardship of the economy over the last 11 years. Levels of public and personal debt will screw any attempts at a decent fiscal stimulus. If he spends big next week, the public will try and shore up their personal financ£s rather than spend it, and then he will come back later and tax them more than he gave way to pay for it.
181. Cutting VAT is the wrong route.
If we are going to do this (and I’m far from convinced – FWIW I still think forcing down the pound is a better way of driving up the UK economy through boosting exports) we need to make sure it is bold and goes to low *and* middle earners.
That means cutting employees’ national insurance contributions and well as boosting tax credits – there’s no point going for income tax as it would not kick in until April at the earliest, as I understand it. April is way too late – we need to inject cash into the system in time for the Christmas shopping season.
169. Looking again at your post, you have mistaken people who live in London for immigrants. That is not the same thing. Most of those educated Frenchmen will go home after their banking career has ended, or they open a new restaurant, or indeed will go home for the holidays. With immigration we are talking about people who change their country of residence permanently.
192. Griffin certainly thinks so, and I fear he may be right. Worth remembering of course that lots of ‘ordinary people’ were Nazi party members as well….
Well said,Roger at 174.It would not do for people with as repellant views as mightisright and his chums to feel they have turf rights.
Kudos to benjob and all those in the camp of humantity at large.
Nothing beats the sound of Tory Boys squealing in the morning.Much better than the smell of napalm.
175 Ted, wonder whether Cameron might ask in PMQ’s whether the G20 “mea culpa” applies to Britain?!?
174 Who woke Eeyore?
Bloody Bank of England -analyse the problem then dont act.
From latest minutes, published this morning:
“The projections in the Inflation Report implied that a very significant reduction in Bank Rate –
possibly in excess of 200 basis points – might be required in order to meet the inflation target in the
medium term. However, a number of arguments were discussed for not moving Bank Rate by the full
extent implied by those projections”…
….”The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that Bank Rate should be reduced by 1.5 percentage points to 3.0%. The Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.”
Another great pun in the Sun opinion columns, regarding the supertanker hijacking:
“The high seize”
They are a class act, their headline writers!
re 56 yes she got a right pasting from Evan Davies of all people omn Today this morning.
Sorry, Chris A, why “of all people” - Evan Davies is usually a pretty forensic interviewer?
194.”If we are going to do this (and I’m far from convinced – FWIW I still think forcing down the pound is a better way of driving up the UK economy through boosting exports) we need to make sure it is bold and goes to low *and* middle earners.”
And do you really believe that driving up exports will do enough to counter act the drop in Sterling and the implications that has for serving the this added debt which is already at dangerous levels at the start of this recession?
195. Define permanently. My brother is going to live in the US next year with his American wife. Under your definition he is not a UK resident, because he is not here permanently.
Also, where is your evidence that “most” of those French people are going home? There are thousands of young Frenchmen and women who prefer London to France and have made the city their permanent home. They have emigrated.
192 I tried to look at it last night but couldn’t even find a link!
200. Icarus. There are very good reasons for acting slowly - it really hurts banks ALM, the models are not perfect, an element of caution is desirable for long term inflation credibility - as evidenced by falls in the currency.
Your findings on this poll won’t stop Brillo saying on his This Week programme that the Tory lead has been cut to three points.
200.”Bloody Bank of England -analyse the problem then dont act.”
Bloody Gordon Brown - screwed the remit of the BoE and the financial regulation in the UK, on the back of a solely political decision to create a firewall for himself with regards interest rates while trying to retain control of other levers.
191 - Agreed, but that doesn’t *directly* boost employment any more than (say) boosting top line revenues would - it’s simply improving corporate profitability (granted, in a slightly targeted fashion). Is there any evidence that this really helps, except at the margins?
174 - genius head in the sand stuff.
Examining a poll to assess it’s accuracy is what people who are prepared to risk money do. Most people on here discounted the 52% poll a few months ago.
I would just like to say that todays article is exactly the reason I come to PB for my news. Intelligent and objective articles, informed opinion on effect.
204. The US don’t have an NHS (Yet) - many immigrants come here to plunder the free health care and then clear off.
Immigrants to britain are from alsorts of Background. What cannot be denied is the numbers of poor, claimants of Government assistance far outweigh the go it alone types of financial means.
205 - it’s now been uploaded to Wikileaks
Even if they managed to get that taken down, it’ll doubtless get uploaded as a torrent
Cutting VAT is daft - unless you cut it very substantially say to 10% (probably breaking EU rules?) retailers will just pocket the difference. Even if they don’t, it won’t get people flooding back to the High Street at a time when the priority will be to pay off household debt.
197. Sean writes things for effect, so I wouldn’t worry about him. He just likes arguing.
Just ask these knee-jerkers for their evidence that
a) immigrants are more likely to be terrorists
b) are mostly poor
You will be hit with either
a) inconclusive reports from the Daily Mail
b) a wall of silence
213. Agreed, cutting VAT is madness.
If we are going to do this, cut NI.
204. Permanently means for life. You are the one presenting personal experience as evidence and making unsubstantiated claims. I have shown you that there is a huge number of professional people leaving the country each year. The figures were from the Home Office.
Ok - fisked, as I thought I would be! And I totally get the criticism of the suggestion.
Barry, Runnymeade, Ken, Christina D, Bobajob etc - thanks for the comments. I’m not going to be Chancellor of the Exchequer any time soon, you will be pleased to hear.
The main point I was trying to make was that Brown will probably go for what he perceives as electorally popular rather than targeting the stimulus to the right places.
I think that Iain Dale has got a point!
Price Rise Correction.
“Yesterday’s reporting of the inflation figures left something to be desired. Both Sky and ITN they reported that prices had dropped (due to the drop in inflation to 4.5%), when in fact it’s the rate of increase that has slowed (but still way out of the BoE target range). Both channels then talked to shoppers who complained that prices haven’t dropped. Even ITN’s Economics Editor (Daisy McAndrew) was talking of falling prices! While it is true to say that some commodities, like petrol, have fallen in price, the prices of most things are still rising. Is it too much to ask for politics and economic journalists to get their terminology right?”
I do one big weekly shop with the same supermarket. And despite becoming much more canny with the household essentials, I notice that rather than the bill dropping with any savings I make, I am treading water with the actual bill. It has been so noticeable that I found myself checking with others who are finding the same.
214. Depends what you define as Immigrant - If they are second or third generation are they immigrants? Even if they are born here I would still call them immigrants but obviously the law does not! But the actions of the 7/7 crowd for instance give an indication of some ethnic groups views on intergration, tolerance and acceptence.
The last major terrorist attack that recieved media attention was Immigrant doctors.
The number of poor immigrants vastly outweighs the Billionaires who donate money to the Labour party!
188. Ted. I think you are spot on again, as usual.
Before this economic crisis blew up I couldn’t see past a convincing Tory victory at the next General Election. But the international element to the current problems and the public’s fears of apocalypse have definitely improved Brown’s position and prospects for now.
It’s hard to predict how it will all end up politically. Thus the importance of the timing of the next General Election. I expect the betting will trend more towards Labour and NOM for the time being and then return towards the Conservatives in a General Election campaign.
217.”The main point I was trying to make was that Brown will probably go for what he perceives as electorally popular rather than targeting the stimulus to the right places.”
Agreed, but I also think that the PBR will be a compromise between Darling and Brown, with neither really getting what they want out of it. And that could prove unpopular with the voters and the markets.
221, a compromise is a way to solve an argument between two people by giving neither of them what they want.
I always like Davros’ speeches in Genesis of the Daleks regarding democracy and the like. Utter fruitcake, but very interesting.
221. Correct – my fear to. Fudge is sickly and is not nutritious.
223. too. der.
217/221 “Electorally popular” would be a tax INCREASE for high earners. A 50% band on income above say £120,000 pa. I don’t rule out that rabbit being pulled from the hat next week…
218. I said this yesterday on here but no-one really picked it up. Same innumerate nonsense that says “Tory lead is 3 per cent”. Three percentage points…
192-Probably been around on the net long enough to get some extra work for 24 hour glaziers…
I hope you don’t seem to think vandalizing property of people whose views you disagree with is somehow amusing? Perhaps you would also find it amusing if [the BNP?] poured dog sh!t through a Muslim family’s letter box. At least there is no recessiona for 24 hour industrial cleaners… Ho Ho Ho.
Would not be surprised if the BNP will milk this for all it’s worth. Members of a legal political party sacked!! ->martyrdom. Followed 6 months later by big pay outs from industrial tribunals. -> Victimization and just in time for the Euros. At the same time, more stories about “immmigrants”, etc.
221 Yes - I agree with that. I suspect the pre budget report will be muddled with exciting headlines and complicated detail.
226, I noticed it when I was watching Sky News. Bloody appalling. “Prices are now fallign” now they bloody aren’t, you cretin!
216. Sorry, where is your evidence that most immigrants are poor and that most professional immigrants such as the 200,000 French in London will leave to go home and set up cafes?
218 Prices did fall in October - IIRC RPI -0.3%. Deflation is here.
202. Because Davis is obviously a Labour sympathiser. Clearly one who is impatient with fools, however.
229. The real tragedy is that it contributes to the innumeracy of the nation. I see it in my otherwise very bright staff all the time.
231.Nickc, I didn’t make that up. Now I don’t give a monkey’s what the statistics say, I am not noticing a drop in my supermarket bill yet. So, show me the deflation?
Mike - In case you missed my post #85 above, is it not the case thar the Tories were very under-represented in this Mori poll, which, if I am correct, means that that both the Labour and LibDem support levels require adjustment.
231 – yes Nick they did but that is not the data that drove the story. The story was “inflation is falling = prices are getting lower”. The Evening Standard was just as bad.
If Hillary should take the Sec of State job, there will be a vacancy for her Senate seat. Good piece here from Kos on the runners and riders to replace her (in case anyone wants a flutter….):
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/18/121816/46/288/662790
231 Why are Labour supporters in particular now switching to the RPI measure of inflation?
225 Good The Lib Dems should never have dropped that policy. Sir Fred Goodwins £4.2m @ 50% = £2.1m as opposed to £1.68m at 40%, a gain to the exchequer of circa £400,000 allowing for tax bands etc.
Trouble is this policy should have been in place 5 years ago to capture the hige city and banking splurge. In a recession it’s not necessarily such a good idea.
I’ve just sold SNP seats at the 10 level on Spreadfair. At the election they got 6 seats and added Glasgow East to the total in July. But are they going to be able to advance their Westminster seat total given that they now have all the problems of being the governing party in Scotland?
Add to that a resurgent Labour party in Scotland and it’s hard to see them advancing much - if at all.
234 Unlike you I do have some faith in official figures - they are at least a series gathered on the same statistical basis every month. If you reject all official figures as biased then it is impossible to have any kind of sensible debate.
Do the Tories have any proposals to change the methods by which statistics are collected/calculated?
phew inflation is falling.
now its only the highest its been for 15 years.
238, you’re confused. RPI has ALWAYS been the preferred inflationary measure of Inglab.
*quickly Winston: type faster!*
The records will show it, I’m sure.
Following the Sun’s barrage this morning against Brown’s planned spending splurge, is there any sign as yet that the Mail, or rather Dacre, is modifying its political allegiance?
232 Broken record- to you everyone is a red under the bed.
230. You’re going to have to help me with these Frenchies, it is entirely unclear how they are relevant.
If you scroll down to page 12 of this pdf you wil find a table showing net immigration/emigration from and to different countries. The pattern is very clear. We ‘export’ professionals to Aus, the EU15, USA, Canada and NZ. We ‘import’ people from everywhere else. You can see for yourself that the sub-continent and Africa are major sources.
The people who immigrate are doing so because they think they can find a better life here: they can earn more money. Do you question that? Perhaps you think they are coming here for the weather?
http://www.migrationwatchuk.com/balancedmigration.pdf
On polls, I remember an entertaining letter in The Times after a close-run election that the polls had predicted wrong:
“In view of the low turnout, is it not more likely that the polls were correct in representing the public view and the General Election is wrong?”
thomas at 195: “With immigration we are talking about people who change their country of residence permanently.” Not as usually defined. When people moan about ‘a million Polish immigrants’ they don’t even attempt to distinguish between people who’ve come on their own to earn money for a few year (the “Auf wiedersehen Pet” scenario) and people who plan to settle. In many cases, the individuals don’t know themselves - “try it for a year or two and then see”.
The BNP issue echoes the one we had about trade unions. In general I don’t think we should have different employment rules for different legal parties, unless there is a very strong reason to think that being active in a party implies a basic hostility to the organisation’s objectives: for instance, I wouldn’t have thought it made sense for a racial equalities body to employ a BNP activist, or Migrationwatch to employ a Respect activist.
However, the police rule does apply to all parties (I have a local supporter who can’t do anything, even put a poster up, because he’s a copper) and as Hurstllama says it seems at least a defensible rule. Going to apologise to Jacqui for post 50, Ghost, see that she stated the rule correctly?
244, just a thought, but if an election looks imminent and a Labour loss likely Cameron might suddenly find Dacre likes him after all. Can’t get a gong from a loser, can you?
“If you reject all official figures as biased then it is impossible to have any kind of sensible debate.”
Well said.
228.”221 Yes - I agree with that. I suspect the pre budget report will be muddled with exciting headlines and complicated detail.”
Be just like the old days under Gordon Brown.
God, Brown’s budgets are legendary now, and are a testament to his worse traits of spin and deception. And on a level Blair, Campbell and Mandelson never managed to achieve.
246. Sorry, where does it say that people from India are poor/unqualified? Erm, when it was discovered that the NHS imports professionals from the subcontinent on a massive scale, the Tories on here suddenly had an epiphany moment and started worrying that we were starving the developing world of its professional skills.
If you are complaining that more immigration is brown skinned than white skinned then that is a different argument.
244 the Mail was very anti Brown this morning.
re 235. Yes - both Populus and ICM would have made a correcting adjustment and the Tory share might have been a notch higher.
251, side issue, but it doesn’t help when the government cocks up the hiring of British doctors so much tens of thousands can’t find jobs in the NHS.
244-It seems so PfP. They had a good editorial for Osborne a few days ago, and a good one for Cameron today too.
239 If Labour do go for a higher tax band next week, then they are DEF going for a snap election….
255-The editorial:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1087209/MAIL-COMMENT-A-bold—time-too.html
Scottish Parliament follows the TUC in rejecting ID cards:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7736588.stm
248 “Can’t get a gong from a loser, can you?”
Resignation honours list? Dacre might yet urge Gordon to Do The Right Thing, when all looks lost for Labour.
225 - Electorally popular” would be a tax INCREASE for high earners. A 50% band on income above say £120,000 pa
It doesn’t work though - the tax take remains the same or is reduced. Those high earners will pay clever accountants to find loopholes, or move elsewhere to a more accommodating tax regime (and there are plenty who would welcome them with open arms). It happened with IR35.
Look at the companies who have relocated their headquarters to countries other than the UK, and work out the loss of Corporation Tax revenues to see how unfavourable taxation works in practice.
240.”Add to that a resurgent Labour party in Scotland and it’s hard to see them advancing much - if at all.”
Mike, I think that the SNP vote will go up at the next GE, but the swing won’t be enough to take the seats they need for exactly the reasons you listed. Their high tide mark was reached with the Glasgow East be election, in fact, I think that Glenrothes should have been an easier target for them.
The closer Labour and the Tories are in the polls as a GE nears, the more it will squeeze the SNP in exactly the wrong places in Scotland, just as it did for the Tories and the Libdems in the Holyrood elections in 2007.
252 Is Dacre on holiday this week?
251. Regarding the casual allegation of racism, you can take that back. I also think you have betrayed your real motivation in this argument, and it is not to uncover the truth. You know nothing of my views on immigration.
‘Poor’ and ‘unqualified’ are two different things which you have been confusing. A doctor, engineer etc. can earn more in the UK than in the sub-C. That is why they move here. If you disagree, perhaps you can suggest another reason why they move here?
John S pulls out of Strictly “because he might win”!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7737447.stm
264. Suddenly I have regained my respect for the guy. Nice move. Just glad I didn’t take him at 33s, which looked like value given the stupidity of the public.
247. Nick, John Sergant has withdrawn! Have you laid him?
260 Brown won’t care whether fiscally it makes sense. Politically it works - “all these rich buggers should be sharing your pain too, hard working families of Britain”. But as I say, only as part of a snap poll strategy.
241.”234 Unlike you I do have some faith in official figures - they are at least a series gathered on the same statistical basis every month. If you reject all official figures as biased then it is impossible to have any kind of sensible debate.”
Not quite the point Nickc, you told me that the official figures were showing a fall in October, after I pointed out that I was not noticing any fall in my weekly supermarket shop. My original point was about the perception of falling prices not working its way through to my purse.
266. Sorry laid = layed
240. Probably wise, Mike. The SNP never quite deliver in a Westminster election. The lift-off point is at about 32% of the Scottish vote, provided a significant proportion of that comes from Labour. Post-Glenrothes, it doesn’t look like either of those things happening, and almost certainly not both at the same time…
260 EdP No-one is saying CT should be increased - in fact it could usefully be cut. But re personal taxation how would have someone like Sir Fred working for a UK bank go to a “more accommodating tax regime” to avoid paying tax @ 50% on his £4.2m. If he chooses to engage a “clever” accountant thats up to him but a lot of the loopholes have been closed over the last few years.
263. I can easily see how that comment could be interpreted as a casual allegation of racism in hindsight, so I apologise and withdraw it. I don’t want to accuse you of that.
Anyway, “poor”? Well maybe Indian doctors are “poor” in UK terms, pound for pound, but that’s hardly a fair comparison is it because the Indian cost of living is way below ours. In India, they are upper middle class.
I just don’t see anything wrong with Indian professionals coming here to work in our public services and contribute, if we accept we are in a global economy. In fact, I admire them and welcome them.
Meanwhile, take a look at this for an alternative view of immigration: http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/Corporation/media_centre/files2007/immigration_report.htm
Roubini says US needs immediate $400bn stimulus package.
Pro-rata for UK would imply around £40bn, all things equal.
This list of BNP supporters thingy… useful database, so why not encourage similar lists from elsewhere.
Can we have a list of NuLab supporters so we can check how many work (or should that be “are paid by”) the beeb?
274. Great idea. The BBC is probably infested.
283 i thought they’d already had a £700bn bail out and previous stimulus package? With the car makers demanding £25bn from the government and Roubini saying another stimulus of £400bn is needed, where does it all end?
Do I detect that Brown is being a bit more conciliatory in his tone?
277. It’ll never last
274. We could also have a list of how many MPs and Peers receive income from the EU.
277. In fact it hasn’t
271 How many Fred the Shreds are there, relative to the number of others on far less, but still above your new threshold who COULD move?
I wasn’t suggesting CT was increased (heaven forbid, there’s one way of killing businesses right now) - it was an example of what happens when tax regimes become unfriendly to those who create or generate wealth, who ultimately support those who suckle on the State’s ever welcoming financial teat, through taxation.
274, I’d imagine if the Labour Party membership were leaked, there’d be a good deal less sympathy from Conservative posters than is being shown to the BNP…
277-It seems so.
277 Conciliatory Brown? No. Brown sounds the same. Cameron lower key than last week. The big difference is that (so far) there has been no jeering.
“Not a man known for his candour.” — the Speaker must be a Tory to allow that one.
283-Ok. It doesn’t seem so anymore!
Mike Smithson at 240.That was me at 10.0 ! For the record I think you made a sound move.If that sounds a bit schizophrenic it is because I never leave the house with fewer than two hats.
I Sold the SNP a few months ago at 15.8 so as far as I’m concerned it’s all Kool& The Gang.
For a week or so now I debated downing my offer of 10.0 to 9.0.
At least now you have clarified one or two issues in my mind and now I will review my ‘try to Buy’ the Tories at 225.0.FWIW I think the Sell at 230.0 is marked.
The Tory front bench are looking less like a government-in-waiting by the day…
287 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
287 — to be fair, the Labour front bench doesn’t look very impressive either.
Hague looks embarrassed.
Why did they make him sit in between the fops.
If I was advising Cameron or Clegg I’d be begging them to go off on a rant about jeering.
Something along the lines of ‘does the prime minister think that the jeering of his members is more important than pmqs, and if not why hasn’t he put a stop to it?’
The house’d probably shout at them but I think someone needs to address it directly at some point.
My loathing of Brown is reaching new heights during this PMQ’s.
He is really, honestly, believe what he’s saying?
Cameron Knocked Brown out there with the ‘Brown’ *agreeing with himself* line - you can tel by HH face and the flustered response by Brown.
Balls is looking more and more like Himmler.
287. Balls and Harman are so impressive of course.
My loathing of Brown is reaching new heights during this PMQ’s.
Does he really, honestly, believe what he’s saying?
272. Fine, forget it, apology accepted. FWIW, I tend to agree with you. There is nothing inherently wrong with the increased migration of a global economy.
However, there has been a catastrophic collapse in public confidence in the immigration system, and that is based on real problems to do with lower-skilled migrants, many of whom have taken advantage of the dropping of the primary purpose rule, and many of whom have a poor standard of English and haven’t integrated.
A startling piece of research presented in that migrationwatch report is that 47% of Black Britons and 45% of Asian Britons believe there should be tighter immigration controls.
Clegg’s got a new suit and haircut. Take more than that to reerse the polls.
Nick Clegg was dreadful again today - the tory echo on banks!
Feeling slightly smug… as I predicted the “do nothing” vs “help for real families and businesses” a couple of weeks ago..
http://hopisen.wordpress.com/2008/10/29/pmqs-the-do-nothing-party/
231. Nickc. Deflation is measured as year-on-year falls in prices. Why is it that Labour supporters are generally economically illiterate? Prices fell on a month-on-month basis. On your definition, we last had deflation in January 2008 and before that in July 2007. See how stupid your comment is? If you had restricted it to saying month-on-month it had fallen, you would have been correct as far as the official statistics are concerned.
We will probably see real deflation in about 9 months. Depending on sterling, domestic and overseas demand.
However, you dismiss the “shopper” view too quickly. Inflation measures are generally inaccurate - it’s a well recognised problem. Usually it means that prices are OVERSTATED. A big component of this is the “sale - three for two” problem. In January a pair of socks costs £1. In February the price is £1 or 3 for two. Do we take flat prices or do we take a fall in price of -33.3%? The rules are that we take the flat price. I suspect that at the moment with margins under pressure (rising prices + falling sales volume), it’s possible that the three for two effect is being reversed meaning there are fewer cheap products, which might mean that the “shopper” view is more valid. It wont last because with demand down, I expect quite large falls in prices in future.
99 - to be fair, he’d not even finished speaking before you posted that!.. or was that the point
282.”274, I’d imagine if the Labour Party membership were leaked, there’d be a good deal less sympathy from Conservative posters than is being shown to the BNP…”
Pretty nasty and unfair dig at Tory posters on here in general! Why is it that some on here cannot resist to the chance to just smear ever Tory poster with the same broad brush?
I got really pi**ed off recently when the government lost my details, not once, but twice!
294. The swivel eyes are certainly very disturbing. Reminds me of some of my madder former acquaintances in UKIP. Or some of the Trotskyites at university…
Cameron wins PMQ’s with a knock out.
Brown better than Clegg though.
274. If you scroll down a bit,there is this …
http://bbcpioneers.blogspot.com/
I haven’t watched PMQ’s for a while but today I thought they were both equally bad.
299. I wouldn’t say dreadful. It was solid enough if uninspiring.
re 299. Martin - your comments on Nick Clegg would carry more weight if we had not heard all this before. You always say the same thing - it is boring.
I thought Clegg’s “strutting on the world stage” description of Brown hit the nail on the head.
307. Good god, I was thinking a draw or point win for Cameron but if Roger says both were bad, then it must have been dreadful for Brown.
306. A pretty impressive list, and far from comprehensive…
BBC pro-Labour bias can appear in unexpected places. Sian Williams on Breakfast TV is quite interesting. Even I as a neutral have noticed she does seem to get more excitable and hostile to Tory spokesmen than Labour politicians in interviews. Today she leapt in a slightly odd fashion to the defence of the Government when it was mentioned by Nick Griffen that they had banned police officers from joining the BNP. Someone had obviously primed her to make this remark, even though this ban was dreamt up by the Government back in the days of Blunkett. Don’t get me wrong I absolutely support the ban but it shouldn’t be up to BBC presenters to leap to the Governments’s defence.
299 Martin Day on Clegg. What are you watching?
Clegg’s banker-bashing line is clearly inspired not by Cameron but by growing American opposition to the bail-out money being used to pay bonuses. Whether that situation pertains here is open to doubt but that is another matter.
Amazingly Brown was conciliatory with Clegg.
307
Brown only “equal” to Cameron according to Roger!
Christ he must have been awful, must watch it later…
re 307. I think both were trying to ensure that there was not a repetition of last week.
314. Why is that surprising?
297 - Thanks. Totally, utterly, completely with you on the English language thing. Unless immigrants have a semi-decent grasp of English and are prepared to bring it up to a good standard, I can’t see how they have much of a chance of getting a good job. It’s also impossible to educate children well in schools where a majority of children do not have English as a first (or even semi-fluent) language. Language is key, as always.
This is a generalisation, but my impression is that India is a great source of immigration as most Indian immigrants English is of a good standard. In many cases, higher than many domestic workers.
308. Clegg made a tatical mistake by asking a similar vein of questions to Cameron on bank business lending. It made him look like Cameron’s mini me. A sort of David Steel in David Owen’s pocket!
It was dreadful from the first question - it was like a damp squib!
303, sorry I guess that was a sweeping statement, but I would suggest that I as someone who dares to defend the Labour Party have to trawl through about fifty times the amount of invective that you do.
It’s noticeable that the Conservative posters on here who seem to be actually actively involved in politics are far more polite and civil to people with opposing views than the armchair ranters.
Woody. If anyone comes on here and comments on PMQ’s which we are all watching simultaneously and peddles partizan rubbish then they sound as stupid as Martin Day. And who would want that?
A scoreless draw it is!
314. Clegg is to Brown as Steele was to Owen - a sock-puppet.
321 - However your non-partisan view is fine.
(This entire post is subject to the “he would say that, wouldn’t he rule”)
I thought cameron just sounded odd today. He was calling for British government micro-managing the banks and I thought the tories were against that sort of thing.
When he then went onto the broader economy issues, he had decent soundbites, but the content was barely present.
I think the “we need to help real families and businesses” vs “let the recession work out” dividing lines is very powerful, but I don’t expect many on here will agree with me.
322, Argh! Martin got in first! Damn.
320. “It’s noticeable that the Conservative posters on here who seem to be actually actively involved in politics are far more polite and civil to people with opposing views than the armchair ranters.”
Yes – I have noticed that.
324. I agree it is powerful if entirely decietiful and downright dangerous. I think the Tories need a new more powerful attack to counter it.
re 202 yes he’s very good and I like him (and not just as an interviewer!) but he’s usually very mild mannered and polite but obvious exasperated this morning by the complete guff he was getting.
317-Brown is rarely conciliatory. And he always uses his last answer to criticize LibDems policies,today he did not do that. He didn’t even attack the LibDems like he always does.
329. One eye on the polls methinks, and on reheating Lib Dem fantasies about joining a coalition with Labour after the GE…
329
He saw the Ipsos/Mori poll.
Not worth the blood pressure.
I think Brown failed in the end because he ignored the point about tax rises. If he can’t even muster a proper response on that then a lot of voters won’t trust him. Tax cuts are only popular if they’re permanent.
re 218 but prices did drop last month.
326. Anyone who votes is involved in politics.
If you by involved you mean those who benefit from their involvement in politics then you obviously agree with Oborne’s thesis in his ‘The Triumph of the Political Class’ which is a presentation of what’s wrong in UK politics today.
Sergeant out of Strictly:D
Excellent news.
332
Brown has already admitted that the tax alterations will only be temporary.
Baffling.
It seems the red mist comes down as soon as Cameron stands up.
333. Read my comment at 301.
re 238 PfP you know full well why they are switching, but CPI fell last month as well.
Sergeant still layable at about 169/1 on Betfair.
(Check though that he’s out before betting).
320 - Good point but civility is fairly boring - I was thinking about this last week when Blears was banging on about banning blogs cos no-one likes labour!!
I think the situation is that labourites need to think they are being nice, and at worst be nasty to the tories. This ends up being a very boring read.
Take Hopi Sens blog. I try to read this regularly but he seems more bothered about nitpicking over one phrase muttered by a tory and extrapolating ad infinitum rather than saying anything bad whatsoever about the government. (His linked article above is a case in point)
Contrast with Guido who lambasts all politicians (notably expense fiddling dodgy accounting of all parties), and I know which is a better read.
Blears seemed to think that people are unable to critically analyse the source of the writing. This is nonsense as i may read on the internet news from Telegraph, Times or Guardian for example, and adjust for their biases accordingly.
It’s about time someone wrote an interesting labour / left of centre blog that is not too partisan and points out the faults as well as strengths of the governing party. Anyone point me in the right direction as i like to listen to views from all parts.
I suspect on of the problems about any government stimulus is that any consumer with half a brain will believe all politicians - of wahtever party - lie about the economy.
(or are incompetent: it’s the same thing).
So “here’s some more money, spend it, you’ll be safe in the future”
which is the essence of tax cutting.. is not believed.
And if consumers do not believe, you are stuffed.
Quite clearly no-one can believe Labour based on their track record and the Conservatives look as if they ahve not got a clue.#
AsReagan said “the worst thing to hear is”I’m from Government and here to help you” “.
# The LibDems don’t count. They will never govern in my lifetime .
336. Fortunately his government will only be temporary as well.
319 Interesting analogy, Martin. The fact that David Steel’s subsequent actions with Merger and the formation of the Lib Dems totally knocked Owen out of the game, I suppose is irrelevant to this case….
301 Ken, what do you mean “economically illiterate”? Don’t agree with you, perhaps? I have heard several City Types over the years agree among themselves and passionately disagree with me and others. This does NOT mean I, or any others who may think more “redistributionally” or whatever lack understanding. My take on the former would be 1 Selfish, and 2 Out of touch with reality outside the Square Mile!
Another good article from Mike that beats the rest of the media’s analysis.
Putting the LDs up 5% to 17% and the C lead increased to 8% is entirely plausible for the reasons he states.
335
Wot? I can make no sense of this post…
312 Sorry my post doesn’t make too much sense. Sian Williams in fact leapt up to say The Police themselves had banned officers from joining the BNP, not the Government. This is technically correct but not a point you would expect her necessarily to make in the circumstances.
James Forsyth reckons that The Tories should manoeuvre Brown away from a snap election.
“The Tories would far rather fight an election in 2010 than early next year. By 2010, reality will have caught up with Gordon Brown. But the best way for the Tories to avoid a poll next year is to talk about it endlessly.
Brown Central is aware that they cannot go through another bout of election speculation like the one in the summer of 2007; it would look hideously self-serving at this time of economic crisis. So, if Brown does decide to go early, he’ll aim for a snap announcement too.
The Tory counter should be to start talking about it now. A line to take would be:
“We know what he did last summer—and he’s doing the same again, flirting with an election for partisan advantage. With Gordon Brown the question is always what’s in his interest not the national interest.”
Given the press’s fascination with election timing - just look at the front of today’s Guardian if you doubt me - the consequences of an early election would quickly become a staple of political conversation. And because Brown knows that he can’t afford another round of election speculation, there’s a good chance he could be bounced into ruling it out.”
I think he is onto something. It was a different time politically and economically last year, so Cameron’s challenge for him to call one worked well for him. This time its different, but the briefing and rumours have already started, and this is where it gets really difficult for Brown again and those mixed messages.
Ted made a really point about “Brown finds it advantageous politically to have a continuing crisis rather than the drudgery of a recssion.”
So who goes ahead and gives the country an unnecessary GE in the midst of the crisis? That is why James Forsyth’s comment “With Gordon Brown the question is always what’s in his interest not the national interest.” could really resonate. Why panic and run to the polls if you are an economic guru and your stewardship of the economy has left it in excellent shape to deal with the recession?
318. To be fair to the government, they have started to deal with the problem. I also think their citizenship ceremonies are a good initiative. I was very surprised at the effect on my friend from Ukraine who started to call herself British for the first time after the ceremony after being extremely cynical before. I think our British cynicism, surprising given our attachment to ceremony, is misplaced there. We already assume we’re included in all the symbols of Britishness, but immigrants often don’t, even when they’ve been here for a long while, and the ceremonial, official recognition of their belonging is very positive.
On the less important matter of PMQS: bit dull after last week. Brown’s lack of proper comeback to the future tax rises questions and falling pound was somewhat surprising.
318. A good job perhaps not, but there are a lot of minimum wage jobs where language is not needed. I’ve worked several myself with all sorts of language barriers, never caused much of a problem though.
349 “Brown’s lack of proper comeback to the future tax rises questions and falling pound was somewhat surprising.”
Not really. There is no comebak he can make, without small children pointing at him in the street and laughing…
324 - Its not that Hopi - look at what NickP said yesterday about what the governmnet was actually doing i.e. their policy, and you couldnt imagine another government of any party doing different.
Bank bail out, international supervision, interest rates (although I thought BoE set them)
Its a philosophical divide that Labour cannot understand. Is it best for real families and businesses to load the country with more debt which may affect them worse in the long term. Money doesnt grow on trees. Economists seem to be split on the effectiveness of all proposals at the moment (ie from all parties).
It seems to me that labour want to do something, whereas sometimes it can be prudent to do nothing. I could have fixed my mortgage rate again in september. Now i did nothing as I wasnt sure what would happen but thought interest rates would come down a bit and then i could fix. Thats a do nothing positive scenario.
I expect that like your leader you will continue to spout tractor stats and party lines rather than engage in serious debate. I am sure you could just as easily argue the tory policy if labour had come up with it.
Sky discussing blogs… “why are they all so right wing”
(after discussing PMQs by quoting a wide spectrum of Guido, dale, dizzy, con Home and coffehouse.)
As for “where are all the labour bloggers” we’re here, we’re just all rubbish and no-one reads us… or something!
I think we need a new term to describe Mike S’s forte(s). Would Social Psychology” cover it?
339. Puts the betting up in the air - also will it only be two in the final again ?
Probably favours the better dancers now. I’m laying Bleakey.
343. No, just economically illiterate. As someone who is moderately literate in economics I find the idiocies of the left and right irritating, but Labour supporters are on the whole more likely to spout total cr@p.
Your personal experiences with people in the City mean nothing in this context. (Either for good or ill).
I can judge economic policies and likely effects without regard to who suggested them. I can dissect how CPI is calculated and how to calculate the government deficit - I know far too much about the System of National Accounts. Far too many people comment on economic things with too little understanding.
Redistribution btw is a value judgement, it has little to do with economics per se, which is a system for analysing (and possibly suggesting ways to change) the allocation of scarce resources.
351
He’ll label them ‘terrorists’.
Can’t have home-grown terrorists pointing and laughing at the PM - it’ll damage the pound.
350. True Corporeal – but if people don’t have/learn good English they are effectively condemned to menial work. That is what I was getting at.
354. ‘we’re here, we’re just all rubbish and no-one reads us… ‘
correct
357
355, but the Sergeant randomiser effect did remove Cherie Lunghi, which suited me:)
Hope it’s Bleakley Vs Chambers/Healey next time (Sergeant’s dancing for the last timw on Saturday. Not sure if another will go as well).
Betfair still hasn’t caught up, I think, but you need deep pockets to be able to afford it. (And also check to make sure I’m right).
349.”Brown’s lack of proper comeback to the future tax rises questions and falling pound was somewhat surprising.”
It was, and it wasn’t. Its Darling and McNulty who have admitted that taxes will have to raise in the longer term, rather than Brown.
And that goes to the heart of the differences between Brown and Darling and those inconsistent messages we are hearing from them both.
And also, Brown is a poor PM who cannot admit any mistakes. If he admits that taxes have to go up to pay for this *fiscal stimulus* in the longer term, it completely nukes his message right now. And it also reminds us that they will go up because of our large, and soon to be larger public debt accrued under his stewardship.
Darling on the other hand needs to get that message out, in an attempt to soothe market fears about further increased borrowing.
352. I’ve said before I find it very strange that I find myself on the same side as guido on tax cuts. Yes, any fiscal stimulus has to be temporary, and the government would have to show the subsequent “glide path”.
However, we’ve got a choice. We can either act to drive growth in the economy, and come out of the other end with a stronger economy, or we can sit back “let the economy take it’s course”, and endure higher short term tax rates, lower borrowing, but take longer to return the economy to growth, as well as the higher human cost of such a path.
Ben Brogan seems to think the election is still 2010:
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
353 - Hopi lets get this straight - I read your blog. It is interesting to see your view. But if you look back at your output recently it is less about the government being good but the opposition being bad. You would be more credible if you took the prostitution thing this morning and said OK this is worthy but implausible to implement. Hold them to account - Smith got rightly pulled apart on Breakfast news this morning because professionals in the field think she is doing the wrong thing.
Same with the organ donation review. WHy does Brown set up a review of relevant bodies, and then ignore and do what he thinks is right in the first place. WHy not be decisive in the first place - this is why he is called a ditherer.
340. I disagree - I just think that partisan ranting and personal attacks just weaken what is a great blog in general. I have many civil and humorous conversations with the likes of Morris Dancer, Sally C and Martin Day, even though our politics are very different.
they are “so right wing” because only right wing people are motivated enough to get rid of the government. everyone else has had their energy and confidence destroyed by the socialists.
353. supporting the government/status quo is fundamentally boring.
slagging everyone off like guido is more “fun”
unfortunately the end result will be a US style system of two party, negative, triangulating, personal politics and opposition for the sake of it.
363. I wonder, what kind of low level of self-esteem does it require to knowingly pump out this sort of drivel day after day?
356 Ken “Far too many people comment on economic things with too little understanding”.
That may be true but I dislike even more the view that some economic literates take that only they are fit to pronounce on the economy. In any case put 100 economists in a room and you get 100… or some such. Education is the way forward.
364, is this Brogan who was spun a line by Labour about Glenrothes?
366, that’s an outrageous allegation. By the way, d’you visit sniffpetrol.com? ’tis most mirthful.
May be this will help settle the argument. This is the RPI index for all food (taken from the ONS website)
2007 Oct 167.4
2007 Nov 169.1
2007 Dec 170.6
2008 Jan 170.5
2008 Feb 171.3
2008 Mar 172
2008 Apr 174
2008 May 176.6
2008 Jun 180.5
2008 Jul 182
2008 Aug 183.9
2008 Sep 183.5
2008 Oct 184.3
So food is going up, it went up last month (again) by 0.8% and is 10.1% higher than last month. You can see that food prices actually dropped in September but have now resumed their upward rise.
363 - There is no proof that what you are saying will happen. We will look at the efect on Monday. but if labour are going to cancel tax rises and call them tax cuts this will have no effect whatesoever. So VED and fuel tax etc is really against what you are arguing.
It is likely the government will announce about 7.5 bill. With 7.5 bll future taxes above deferred. (Obviously will claim 15 bill) Then we have to consider the impact. If it is clear that it will have to be paid back in medium term, then those who pay more tax may cut back spending now in order to finance future tax rises. As i said earlier economists have come out on both sides.
This is why what the tories and libdems advocate is better. If you are making savings (ID cards, NHS IT behemoth) then it is clear to people that they will not be hit for it in future and spending can be maintained.
The only plus the government could do is move forward PFI spending on schools hospitals as it is off balance sheet. However planning requirements would probably scupper this idea being effective.
366. A caveat to that is Sean T. His bluster seems to be applied drunkenly and indiscriminately and can be rather inventive.
His description the other day of Gabble as a “hideous Labour insect” graced this blog. So attacks are OK, as long as they are in the Blackadder/History Today tradition of innovative slurs.
356 OK Ken.
370. Would you suggest it was wise for those without medical training to undertake surgery?
Labour will love blogs when they are in opposition, because they tend to show up the Govt. of the day as incompetents.
I agree with Blow - er sorry, Bobajob. Considering the opposing armies facing each other here, discussion is generally conducted with the atmosphere of the Christmas Day football match in no-man’s land…
366 368 I am not advocating more than a bit of banter - personal attacks like on the comments on Guido are a real turn off. This site has a broad church which is why i return day after day.
The point I am trying to make is that right wing bloggers seem happy to criticise both right wing and left wing if they disagree. Left wing blogs tend to be asinine government support, mixed with tory hating.
Point at hand. If there is a tory scandal where would you expect the full info - guido, and left wing blogs. Labour scandal - just guido normally.
366.”I just think that partisan ranting and personal attacks just weaken what is a great blog in general.”
bobajob, you been littering this site with exactly that kind of comments over the last week. How about practising what you preach?
379.Oops, I meant to add that you tend to be quite sweeping in your condemnation of Tory posters rather than restricting it to individuals you disagree with.
Someone upthread used the word ‘noise’ to describe the stuff and nonsense everyone on here loves to analyse day by day. A very good description.
The key for the party strategists is to find lines that cut through this ‘noise’ and provoke a positive response.
At the moment, very little is getting through as most people are far more concerned about the immediate (job, card bills, the cost of groceries/fuel, mortgage, Christmas, Baby P), than the ephemeral or longterm (taxes in the future, the next election, how to reform public services).
Brown’s strategy appears to be to put money in people’s hands as soon as possible and hang the consequences. Cheques arriving in the post will certainly cut through the noise, but we are British and well-versed in the philosophy of ‘that seems too good to be true’. It’s risky and points to an early election, with 2010 only if Brown really believes his own propaganda.
Cameron’s strategy is to bash away at ‘there’s no such thing as a free lunch’ and the opposition favourite since time immemorial that ‘it’s time for a change’, hoping the middle classes will take any Brown handout, draw the conclusion that the PM must know something they don’t about the economy, stick it straight into the highest rated savings bond they can find, and then vote out the man who brought us here - GB.
For what it’s worth I am holding my Labour sell positions and will take on more if the price moves any further in their direction. There remains more value in selling Labour than buying Tories IMHO.
373
Far too sensible!
The polls seem to show that people are only too delighted to be bribed with their own money, and are buying into the (IMHO completely wrong) “Brown as Saviour” argument.
Brown STILL doesn’t seem to accept that you cannot abolish boom and bust, and he will throw the kitchen sink at futile attempts at “returning the economy to growth” as Hopisen describes it.
Unfunded* tax cuts were the stick with which labour beat the tories for years if not decades. Why the sudden conversion? It smacks of desperation.
* No, borrowing doesn’t count as funded…
Morris – “Engineers at Ferrari’s state-of-the-art Fabrics & Appliqué Logos development centre in Maranello say that they have also made significant advances in systems integration, allowing the new cap to match-up seamlessly with a Prancing Horse branded polo shirt, drastically shortening the gap between the wearer entering a room and the first time someone says ‘Jesus, look at that total prick in several items of Ferrari clothing’.”
Not come across this site before – superb stuff. Thanks.
376. There is of course a distinction between medicine and economics, namely that medicine is based on hundreds of years of empirical testing (every time we tried that the patient died), whereas economics is largely post hoc theorising against historical data that is tested rarely and often fails. If fiscal stimulous did not work in Japan, what is the logical rational economic argument that it will work here and now?
There is a tangentially related argument about why IT “professionals” are not held in the same regard as other professional engineers, and the answer is mainly that most bridges do not fall down, and most IT systems do, because they have not been subjected to the same levels of rigorous testing in use.
379. Sorry if you think that Christina – I try very heard indeed to be discerning and use the word “some” as often as possible. FWIW, you are on the Bobajob hotlist as a good Tory poster – not that you care and I suspect you may even consider that a slur!
382, disagree. C&N saw a £2.7bn bribe to 80% of those hit with 10p, and the voters didn’t give a damn.
383, np. James May’s contributed at least one article to it. I particularly like the Schumacher Brothers at the bottom.
378. I don’t go an any other blogs for mostly the reasons you say!
384. That’s not correct. Economists spend a great deal of time testing theories against data. That process is made difficult by the quality and quantity of data and interpretation issues, among other things. But those are problems also present in many branches of science - some areas of archaeology for example, or climatology…
Vaguely on topic: might the spectre of 10p play yet again?
Bigged up as a tax cut, it was actually a tax rise for the very poorest. Brown’s got form on taxes, and it’s very very well-known form.
385.Not at all bobajob.
No, I just get really irked on here when I see people tarring all posters of a political persuasion with the same brush. Some of my favourite posters on here are not Tories. Also remember, I was a Scottish Tory back in 97′, and the constant whinge about Tory posters dominating the site vocally cuts no ice with me.
NickP was moaning about people not being nice to Gordon Brown on here, well, its not a love of the Tories or Thatcher that kept socialists warm as they stood outside shouting “Maggie, Maggie, Maggie, Out, Out, Out.
How soon it was all forgotten, despite the real anger directed at the previous Tory government delivering a very nice electoral pressie for both Labour and the Libdems over the last 11 years.
389. Hmm, not sure I agree. I think there is a difference between checking that my new theory matches what I believe to be the historic data set (economics, archaeology, climatology) and the theory being able to accurately predict future outcomes (medicine mostly, engineering)
382
Sudden conversion?
He has cut himself free from reality.
Was it Brown who said ” extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures”?
Ah, it all seems so long ago…
384. totally agree about economics. additionally most economists think they are more politically neutral and unbiased than they actually are.
not sure i even understand the point about IT professionals - is there even such a gap? if so it is more likely because IT is
(a) boring/unglamorous
(b) also done for free by lots of amateur geeks.
Nemty: while it’s not organised as a blog, my roughly weekly emails are collected here
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/messages
and aspire to be what you’re looking for (thoughtful left-of-centre stuff). Obviously skip all the local stuff about bus routes etc. - most updates have one or two national theme discussions, generally without much reference to party politics. Nearly 10% of households in the constituency subscribe to the emails.
To respond on the tax cut issue: I think it’s simply untrue that people only welcome permanent tax cuts and otherwise turn up their noses. If you send me a hundred quid but warn me you won’t do it next year, that’s OK. Even if you warn me you’ll want it back next time I have a salary rise that’ll be OK too. A countercyclical permanent tax cut is a contradiction in terms. The Tory position, as I understand it, is simply that in the current situation they think countercyclical tax cuts are a bad idea. Will they actually vote against them, I wonder?
392. In which case you implicitly agree with my view that economics is on a level with certain disciplines within science. I don’t think even the biggest fan of the subject would claim it is as ‘pure’ a science as (say) physics, but that’s not the point.
To return to my original point, would it be appropriate for archaeology to be undertaken by laymen? Of course not.
395. Twaddle. The Tory argument is that giving me £100 now and then demanding £125 back in 18 months time ain’t much of a tax cut.
A more restrained PMQs this week then after the surreal madness of last week? That has to be good for everyone, although I see that DC still had to make some comment about the Baby P inquiry. Thought he would have steered clear after the farce he got himself into last week.
Still, some questions on the economy at last…
389. there are too many woolly assumptions in economic models, and the result is that few are successful going into the future.
it doesn’t help, of course, that any economics “lightbulb moment” is either kept quiet (so that the inventor can make money from it) or announced with the result that noone makes money from it.
395 NickP “The Tory position, as I understand it, is simply that in the current situation they think countercyclical tax cuts are a bad idea.”
You don’t understand it correctly, Nick (deliberately, perhaps?). The Tory position is that, because of your government’s profligacy, large countercyclical tax cuts are not currently affordable. A very different proposition.
395. I see by the sudden appearence in his posts of technical language which Mr.Palmer clearly doesn’t understand, that the ‘line to take’ on the economy is being fed to all Labour’s spinners today…
363 Hopisen
“We can either act to drive growth in the economy, and come out of the other end with a stronger economy, or we can sit back “let the economy take it’s course”, and endure higher short term tax rates, lower borrowing, but take longer to return the economy to growth, as well as the higher human cost of such a path.”
That’s not the choice as I and others see it - we consider Brown’s declared intent will not end up with a stronger economy but a feebler one stumbling forward with low growth burdened with high taxes and borrowings. Then there is the question of whether it will be effective anyway.
Will find out on Monday how much is Brownian smoke and actually whether Darling and the Treasury are minimising increased deficit, while looking to reduce spending growth in 2010 onwards.
378.
If you’re saying “Well left wing blogs would be more popular if they criticised the government.”. Quite a lot of them do, y’know. They just tend to criticise the government from the left, which doesn’t get much airplay.
On the left wing blogosphere government loyalists like me (and Luke Akehust) are very much the minority. btw, Conor Ryan might be a good example of a moderate Labout blogger who criticises the government from that perspective.
It might be easier to blog in opposition, but sitting down and writing what you feel like is quite enjoyable for anyone. caring whether you get readers or not is a different matter!
One of thing I’ve noted. I’m a massively pro Labour blog, yet I’d say more than half of my comments are from Tories (and very nice they are too).
Anyway, there’s no one recipe for blogs succeeding. Some because of the quality of writing. Some because the author knows what they’re talking about, some because of the comments, some because they break news. My favourite political blog is a very longwinded blog by an american evangelical christian, mostly about faith and religion.
396. most archaeology is undertaken by complete amateurs and/or by accident
runnymede do you honestly think that labour sends out a line for its spinners to take? Sometimes I thinkk people on blogs become self obbsessed with their own importance or indeed others.
Maybe it could just be that people have a different view?
405, wouldn’t be surprising, given some journalists think quoting anonymous posts on blogs amounts to evidence of discontent.
“If you send me a hundred quid but warn me you won’t do it next year, that’s OK. Even if you warn me you’ll want it back next time I have a salary rise that’ll be OK too.”
To which the logical answer is for you to refuse the money as you don’t know if you will be in a position to pay it back with interest.
To attempt that on a national scale is foolhardy.
John Rentoul on the increasingly good Open House Blog reports on Copycat Cameron
“An inconclusive engagement at Prime Minister’s Questions, as the main party leaders get used to their new clothes for the Great Cross-Dressing Election of 2010. Gordon Brown redefined spending the money he intends to borrow from future taxes as “helping people”, and David Cameron posed as the guardian of Prudence.
But Cameron’s best line was borrowed from the Old Master, Tony Blair. He said it wasn’t surprising that the Prime Minister did not agree with various quotations from other ministers and from Derek Scott, the former prime minister’s economic adviser, but he quoted from the old prudent Brown and asked, “Does he agree with himself?”
That is from NOW (That’s What I Call Leading the Opposition) Vol. 48, a compilation of Blair’s greatest hits against John Major (1 March 1995, on the subject of Europe):
I find it odd that he cannot agree with his Chancellor, I find it strange that he cannot agree with his Secretary of State for Employment and I find it unbelievable that he cannot agree with himself.”
Only one query about John’s assertion about “Gordon Brown redefined spending the money he intends to borrow from future taxes as “helping people”.
Didn’t Gordon used to tell us that borrowing to invest in public services was a good thing to do. And when you consider how many people borrowed money on the back of the increasing value of their homes to improve them, why does he think that he can get away with it when so many others couldn’t?
This is a classic example of Brown’s biggest problems right now, he is still preaching that borrowing can be good when the whole pack of cards have fallen around his feet. Just remind why our Banks and financial services have gone into meltdown? Can Brown convince us that he will buck the trend?
I wonder if these words will come back to haunt Gordon:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let me remind Conservative Members — who will have to live with this as these decisions come back to haunt them between now and the next general election—of what the Prime Minister said. Asked by The Independent on 27 March: Can you give the same pledge that Mrs. Thatcher gave in 1987 that you will not extend the scope of VAT to children’s shoes, clothing, gas, electricity and food?”, the Prime Minister replied, I have made the pledge in the past. I have made it clear that we have no plans…no need…no plans…to extend the scope of VAT. The Prime Minister was not content with that. He went further and promised tax cuts year on year: I have no doubt, he said, that we will be able to make further reductions in the rate of taxation.
Those were the words of a Prime Minister who put himself at the forefront of a manifesto that said that lower taxes were necessary to encourage people—they would make for “a more productive economy”; and would transfer power from the state to the people”— and that high taxes would kill the goose that lays the golden eggs”. There is now no refuge for the Prime Minister in claiming that he did not know anything about the length of the recession. It was he who gave the unequivocal promise: “Vote Conservative on Thursday and the recovery will continue on Friday.” They were calculated, cold-blooded and cynical statements, made simply to win the election. The result is that the Conservative party, under the Prime Minister’s leadership, will never be trusted again.
Let us just remember that, to win an election, President George Bush said, “Read my lips—no more taxes,” then put taxes up and lost the election. The Prime Minister said, “Read my manifesto—no more taxes.” Now he has put taxes up, and he will be thrown out of office.
17 March 1993
395. NickP. A permanent tax cut is one funded through reductions in government spending. One that is counter-cyclical is not a contradition in terms since it simply means a tax cut during the downturn, you could even delay the spending cuts until the economy recovers.
also Nick has a doctorate in maths which I am willing to bet that over 99% of the blog don’t have, or anything comparable. I think therefore trying to imply that he isn’t smart enough to understand or come to these terms on his own accord is slightly unfair!
403 As a Conservative, I find that Hopi’s blog is by far the most interesting and insightful of those left-leaning blogs I’ve looked at.
Still tosh, of course, but well-argued!
395.”To respond on the tax cut issue: I think it’s simply untrue that people only welcome permanent tax cuts and otherwise turn up their noses. If you send me a hundred quid but warn me you won’t do it next year, that’s OK. Even if you warn me you’ll want it back next time I have a salary rise that’ll be OK too”
I rest my case@408.
405. I can tell you Labour don’t. Sometimes I wish they would, especially when inspiration fails to strike.
I do however get at a good few press releases from PR firms each week. Which amazes me. I sometimes want to write to them and say “I get a thousand readers on a good day - It’s not worth putting me on the email list”
And some more here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We would rule out tax cuts in the Budget so that we can have proper investment in our future.
24 October 1989
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Is it not the case that those countries with higher tax rates than ours, such as Japan, have been investing more and that those countries with lower tax rates than ours — at least until last week — such as America, have been investing the same as us?
The balance of payments is bad and worsening, and it will be accentuated by the tax cuts, which will fuel imports.
It cannot unite the nation because, through his decision to opt for tax cuts, the right hon. Gentleman has chosen unfairness where he could have chosen to be fair.
21 March 1988
re 395 God help us if that’s the thinking in the Treasury as well. So we have £100 now but next year we have to pay £10 more and keep doing so for evermore. All this tax cut will be will be a loan, and we do not know either the rate or term.
411 So what?
416, a sub-prime loan?:p
395 NickP has again posted his blog with his constituency newsletters here, and they are certainly often an interesting read.
Has it come up on any previous threads here that Nick appears to have attempted to exclude the Lib Dem PPC from his upcoming public debates with the Conservative PPC? And that also he appears to have accused the Conservative PPC of wanting to include the BNP candidate in those debates?
Is that right?
I saw that that overweight, has-been, never was, puffed up pillock who was paid by the tax payer to serve up utter rubbish week after week, supported by the flabby Beeb and more moronic elements of society has done the nation a service and quit…
No, not John Sargeant - a dream I had last night about Gordo…
Some suggestions for future Gordon Brown policy speeches for the future:
[Advice to those with a sense of humour bypass, don't click the link.]
A taster:
“I can speak with personal experience of the pain of the dentists’ chair, with fillings and root canal surgery a troubling part of today’s lifestyle. This problem has reached our shores from the US, where the electric dental drill was invented in, I believe, the year of 1875.”
btw Did he really say this? “You know, it started in America, there was a lot of irresponsible lending taking place.” [BBC: October 26th]
405. Comedy post of the day…
411. Quite - so what? My brother has a doctorate in biology. He knows nothing about economics.
413 Really it’s here’s £100 and I won’t ask you to repay it for two years but then I’ll take back £106 (interest plus cost of collection) and I’ll add on another £106 for the tax rises I delayed and some more to cover the £100 I gave to Mr Smith, who doesn’t pay tax.
417 - that someone that has a phd in maths could come up with the highly techniqual term “counter cyclical” on their own.
In fact anyone with a few a levels can do this. I just find it bizarre that people seem to see this great spin hand in the sky controlling what people with labour sympathies say.
You know millions of people do vote Labour, same as the tories and Lib dems. No parties can co -ordinate a spin line amongst their supporters
New thread: “How big a risk is Cameron taking on tax?”
416
The government as a loan shark?
Hmm.
Giving money to families in poverty without being clear of the terms.
I thought there were laws aginst this.
424. Oh stop being so silly.
424 - why exactly am I being silly?
Just on leftie blogs, Bloggers4Labour aggregates all the posts from hundreds of different Labour-supporting blogs (353 posts in the past two days, from over 100 blogs) :
http://www.bloggers4labour.org/recent_posts.jsp
From there you can find if there are particular blogs that you’d like to read more regularly. Range of different approaches (pro and anti-government, shorter pieces and longer, more analytical pieces) and subjects covered.
Yes - the most interesting thing I find about Hopi at the moment is that he is more Anti-tory than pro-labour.
I am sure that he would call me a tory, but I would only vote tory to get labour out. In GEs I have only ever voted LibDem. That gets me onto the other thing that even I fall into - I think anyone who disagreed with me must be Pro-labour - not always the case and I end up looking foolish!!!