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What are the betting implications of ‘Green-gate’?

November 29th, 2008

Does Sir Hugh Orde benefit the most?

Paddy Power (who else) are running a market on who is going to be appointed the next permanent Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Service.

The two clear favourites for the job, according to media sources, were Sir Paul Stephenson (the Deputy Commissioner, and currently Acting Commissioner following Sir Ian Blair’s departure yesterday) and Sir Hugh Orde (the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland).

    After the debacle of police officers from the Counter-Terrorism Unit conducting a search of a Parliamentary office, and with video footage rumoured to follow, surely Paul Stephenson’s 11/8 looks very poor value? I would say that the 4/1 available on Hugh Orde is by far the better bet, and I would consider covering bets on the next few candidates on the list as well (Firewall strategy courtesy of our own Peter the Punter).

Whoever is given the job, I cannot believe that Sir Paul Stephenson’s chances are as good as they were yesterday – he will not have pleased the Government (who are washing their hands of his decision), the Conservatives (who are livid), or the Mayor of London (whose concerns were not heeded). Is there value here?

Morus

As Mike points out, there has been an astonishing move towards the Tories on the General Election spreadbetting markets. Spreadfair are showing a Conservative seats midpoint of 352.5 up from 340.5 on Thursday, and Sporting Index are up to 347 from 339. This represents a move from Labour to the Tories of around 10 seats, giving them an estimated majority of 50. I’m having problems accessing the IG Index website, but when I do, I’ll update the PB.com ‘Balance of Money Index’. These shifts will be due largely to the ICM poll yesterday, as well as the growing concern around ‘Green-gate’.






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