Did a minister have advance knowledge?
December 4th, 2008
But has the story any impact beyond the Westminster village?
The Green arrest affair has taken on a new turn this evening with a report by Iain Martin on the Telegraph “Three Line Whip” blog that “the strong rumour is that one minister with good police contacts did know and has remained well under the radar since the row erupted last week, for understandable reasons.”
This, clearly, could have big ramifications because the most damaging thing for the government, surely, would be any suggestion that it is being less than totally frank in its public comments on the affair.
Jacqui Smith, the home secretary, came under attack in the commons this afternoon for her “wilful ignorance” and of failing in her responsibilities as home secretary over the police raid on an MP’s office. The Tories say she should have asked more questions. Her position was undermined by a predecessor, John Reid who expressed surprise she had not been told.
A big question is how much of this is getting through to the general public and whether they care that much. Also Gordon Brown exquisite strategy yesterday over the mortgage announcement (subject of today’s brilliant Marf cartoon) has played a big part in dampening down the flames.
At the moment I don’t think that this matters because media interest continues to be enormous and a lot of work is going on trying to dig up information and to establish whether what they are being told can be verified.
Quite often it is not the initial act that causes the problem for government but the following cover-up. Could that happen here?
Mike Smithson
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The woman in the cartoon looks a bit Hillary-ish.
Second
I doubt whether this story has much impact, although if an individual minister has lied they should resign.
Any opposition member who offered inducements to Galley or knew that inducements were being offered is also unfit for office.
Did a minister have advance knowledge?
Yes, they have decieved the public and ministers should resign!
re. 1 and the toy in the guillotine looks like Bill haha!!
Tonights Con PPB
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2008/12/conservative-postqueens-speech-party-political-broadcast.html
@3:
Inducements is too vague a word. But other than that, you’ve probably got a point.
To be honest, I’m a huge political geek, but after a week of non-stop blather, even *I’m* starting to get sick of it.
Quite what the proverbial man in the street makes of it all, f*ck only knows.
Once one knew, many knew. How many MP’s do you know could keep a story like this secret from their colleagues?
Labour has constructed a house of cards on their cover-up story over Green. And there’s a mighty wind picking up…
re 1 & 5. I love this cartoon today. HR departments are terrible and Marf’s creation is particularly biting.
That plant pot looks like it has hairy bollocks in it!
1 - Nah, she’s wearing a skirt, not a pants suit!
“I had no prior knowledge, the Home Secretary had no prior knowledge, I know of no other minister who had any prior knowledge.”
Gordon Brown 28.11.08
12. http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23594478-details/Brown+insists:+No+minister+knew+of+arrest+in+advance/article.do
3 If there was such an opposition member. There isn’t though and as Mr Green so helpfully pointed out no police charges to indicate such either.
In fact it is a construct of Labour spin doctors however much you try to repeat something which if pressed too far becomes libel.
@Gabble:
Despite what the headline says, Gordon actually said:
“I know of no other minister who had any prior knowledge.” (emphasis mine).
Thoughts?
Yes it’s a great cartoon. I’m not usually a fan as I don’t think the drawing look particularly like their subjects.
(O/T Mike, By the way, how did you and the pleasingly fragrant Marf get it together that she would regularly appear here and reveal her talents to your admiring correspondents?)
15. Thoughts?
He’s off the hook?
15 Its so Gordo. a sort of non denial denial
18
You mean he is on the hook? tell us more Gabble…
Brown steps in to defend Speaker:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5287957.ece
As some on this forum are fond of saying…..DOOMED! DOOMED!
@18:
Possibly, but there’s more to it than that. He’s explicitly not ruling out that no minister knew, he’s trying to limit the damage to ministers he’s demarcated as expendable.
Meanwhile, the mortgage bailout may not work..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
I was thinking today, if Gordon ever goes on the internet, he would definetly be a troll! He would enjoy winding people up and scoring partisan points!
re 23 “May”? It was dreamt up by Gordon solely to wrong foot the opposition, we know it won’t work.
Remarkable how ill-informed the heart of Govt. can be - when it so chooses.
They would have us believe it is entirely populated by people like that character in the Fast Show “You ain’t see me - alright?”
14 Ted - There are no charges of any sort, nor will there be. As you quite rightly point out, Damian Green was not even under suspicion “for counselling or procuring misconduct in a public office”, so Tim is completely off-limits in his repeated posts about this.
From previous thread 537/600: PtP and stjohn
Yes, the odds on May 09 are very generous (still available as at a few minutes ago).
24 Yes, Martin. And he would probably pick some weird name - such as the name of an element, or give himself some military rank.
One must not forget that Green might well sue (HRA if nothing else). This is not over by a long way yet.
Headlines on BBC 6 o’clock news: Shannon Matthews, Mortgage Rates, Snow. Not a mention of Greengate. It will need a major development to get this back up the mainstream news agenda.
re 538 stjohn as you know I’m still firmly a Brown-will-need-dragging-kicking-and-screaming-out-of-Downing-Street man, so I’m still on 2010, but 33/1 for May next year seems tempting. If it is next year it’ll coincide with one of the other elections for sure.
Something about this whole mess keeps bugging me, the timing of the arrest and searches was just too convenient. And I still maintain the list of those told, and those who were not is very odd as well.
Amazingly, it would appear that far too many Ministers involved were conveniently well out of the way when this kicked off on Thursday.
Macavity Cat?
This is bad for Cameron…
‘Cameron’s a lightweight’
“On meeting Cameron, Obama was, according to diplomatic sources, “distinctly unimpressed”, contrary to some reports (excitedly spun by the Conservatives) which suggested that the two men had formed an instant “bond”. Instead, I have been told, Obama exclaimed of Cameron after their meeting: “What a lightweight!”"
“The disclosure that his ideological opposition to Europe has disappointed Obama is also likely to cause considerable embarrassment - and not just to the Conservative leader himself.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/12/cameron-obama-europe-president
Someone on Guido - probably a trouble maker - is saying there’s a new ICM out tonight that puts Labour 2 points ahead of the Tories. Remembering that we had someone there the other day fibbing about the ComRes results, I still wonder if there is any truth in this. Mike, do you know if an ICM is due tonight, or any poll at all?
34 Gabble on auto-repeat again
Gabble you are just reposting from yesterday. Its a non story, got no coverage, We saw it yesterday, stop being so tiresome and answer mine at 20….
28 - Richard, as you clearly have an inside track, could you tell us whether Cameron took legal advice as to what constitutes an inducement.
David seems a little reticent.
34 - I love rumours from the Labour Party’s buttplug of a magazine that can and will in no way be substantiated.
34 - Is it any worse or better than when you last posted it?
34 Gabble, are you on a piece rate - paid for the number of times you can post the same piece of tat?
36, 37.
No. This is the full article.
Has anyone considered the hint in Iain Martin’s blog that a minister knew because he was leaked the information by the police?
31 - I agree, but I think we’ll get a major development at some point.
It may be too arcane, at present, for people to follow in detail but everyone understands (a) a resignation and (b) a cover-up. If either of these transpires then it will damage the government to some extent.
34 - In your own time, Gabble…
could be former ministers from the Home Department who have since moved on perhaps?
I’ve been out of the loup for the last few days and it’s extraordinary how little of this tittle tattle gets through. Roy Keene on the other hand is all over the place….however
To those vaguely interested the question is a simple one. Was the police arrest of Damien Green a more heinous act than that a paid civil servant/diary secretary over a two year period broke the trust of his employer his boss and the civil service code to ingratiate himself with the Tory Party?
I don’t even think the jury needs to retire. The verdict is obvious.
Re 17. John - Marf sent me an email a couple of months ago and I very much liked what I saw. This week she’s been doing a cartoon every day which has been great.
I’ve never met her though we are in contact every morning over the subject matter.
I’m hoping that this will give her a platform to find a regular newspaper/magazine slot. She deserves it.
What’s been great is that a number of PBers have gone directly to her site and have bought originals and other things that she has for sale.
44 - Perhaps Boris leaked it?
MIKE… can you stop these continuasl repetitions, We saw it we read it, we commented on it. It does nothing to add to the story and is getting very tedious.
34 - Why do you persist in regurgitating old news stories that have already been discussed already here. As for the ’sources’ and the publication (proprietor, one Geoffrey Robinson MP), I suspect we need go no further than the offices of Mandy and Alastair’s Fable Factory for Fools plc
re 600 Pfp it didn’t, but then neither did the 2000 Queen’s Speech. The government is going to have to resurrect some bills which weren’t mentioned yesterday anyway, or else it’s going to run out of things to do in April!
47 - Mike, Thanks. Brilliant move. Yes, I just popped over there. But I don’t think the world is quite ready for me and a MARF tee-shirt.
34. Remember Gabble - Gordon is smiling at you!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/images/2007/10/09/smilingbrown.gif
re 46. How was what Galley did Roger any worse than the leakers who kept up a steady stream of information for Gordon in the 1992 - 1997 period?
The trouble with Labour supporters is that they believe that their moral purpose is so superior to the rest of us that any act is worth it in order to gain and stay in power. Your comment expresses that totally.
46 - “broke the trust of his employer his boss and the civil service code”
Code… maybe relevant. Boss and employer are us - not the Labour party.
The New Statesman link is the actual article rather than a report about it.
“David Cameron has made much of his rapport with Barack Obama, but his views on Europe clearly left the president-elect baffled”
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/12/cameron-obama-europe-president
51 as I said yesterday they don’t anymore as there will be an election
51 - Ah, that’s when we see the bills to abolish the House of Lords, introduce an elected head of state, bring in PR for the next General Election and join the Euro….
47. Yes I think the Cartoons are great! As good as those in the press! Hopefully the artist will get a break and some work out of doing these! I think some of them are very good indeed!
46
If the Civil Service Code involves lying to the voters,or suppressing information , which is what it appears to be ..
it’s worthless.
As are people who seek to defend that.
59 Ditto. I look forward to seeing her cartoon every day.
Blast! Missed the new thread. Repost from previous thread.
Re: Green arrest. Since David Cameron knew exactly what was going on (apparently), the thought must have crossed his mind to ring up the PM / Speaker / Home Secretary and protest to them at the treatment that one of his Front Bench was receiving.
OK - I am too dim to think why he didn’t do this. Can anyone suggest possible explanations?
Cameron = Lightweight.
Further analysis - the story is perhaps spreading further than tories would like:
“Cameron’s economic views will be treated like old-fashioned idiocy by Obama. Around the world government’s are nearly all united in thinking that action by them is a suitable response to the economic crisis. The Tories have no friends here, and Obama least of all.”
http://www.politics.co.uk/analysis/opinion-former-index/foreign-policy/analysis-cameron-and-obama-$1252809.htm
62 Who said he didn’t?
60. “….as are people who seek to defend that”
You haven’t been at the UKPaul sanctimony tablets again have you Madfish?
re 35: anyone else know anything about this ICM poll?
46 Roger, indeed it is generally open and shut. in most cases the jury finds the accused not guilty (public interest defence) or the case is dismissed by the judge.
In this case there is no issue of national security and little evidence of anything criminal (civil service codes may have been broken but the HR dept can resolve that), there are doubts over police process, no charges despite spin of conspiracy or inducements.
Would you put money on Green being charged?
66/35 - just seen that post - written in exactly the same way as the other two spoof posts on there before.
Sounds like the brown smelly stuff
32. Chris, If you really think Brown will need dragging kicking and screaming out of Downing Street, then isn’t it also possible he’ll try to hang on past even the locals on May 6th 2010 (citing some sort of national emergency excuse perhaps) until the very last possible date of 3rd June 2010, making the 33/1 Ladbrokes offer for that date a possible value bet?
I do wonder where all this Cameron lightweight stuff could be coming from. I can’t believe Obama’s people would be leaking it and Cameron neither.
The Minister directly responsible for the Police under the Jackboot (shudders at the thought!) is Vernon Coaker.
Has he made any statements in recent days?
His opposite number covering Immigration - Phil Woolas at least made one dreadful public defence of this abuse of power. i don’t recall him being quoted anywhere. As the Minister directly responsible I would have thought he would have commented (even if only to deny everything).
Where is Vernon Coaker?
65
No thanks Roger
Sanctimony is too Labour and bilios for me.
But I appreciate your concern and am touchesd that you should enquire.
I am not worthy.
On Topic.
Only a dumbass idiot believes no Minister knew in advance. But like Bill Clinton “I did not have sex with that woman”, knowledge might be hard to prove.
I would suggest an instruction to the police Not to tell any minster would be as damming as finding evidence of knowledge.
I ma sure at some stage the Met will leak when under pressure.
As Martin proved, they always do.
So - anyone tried clicking on Gabble’s link at [63]? And has anyone got through to an article?
Question for you, Gabble. If Bush had said those things (and we don’t know that Obama did, for that matter), would you feel the same way.
71 Iain Martin indicates its someone usually less than shy with the media - McNulty is my favourite.
Gabble. I can’t help thinking that those of us not of a Tory persuasion are missing an open goal. The public don’t give a damn about parliamentary procedure but are quick to spot a rat. I am convinced that the Tory mole and his paymasters look pretty oily whatever Mike and others on here might be saying. This is surely more relevant than the musings of Barak Obama?
And of course McNulty was Minister of State (Security, Counter-terrorism, Crime and Policing), Home Office (1 Aug 2007 to 6 Oct 2008)
62. “crossed his mind to ring up the PM ”
Are you dim? Don’t you remember how reluctant Brown was to take Cameron’s call during the Tory Party Conference? Had to dragged kicking and screaming (metaphorically, you understand, before you get on your high horse) to the phone.
It doesn’t take much to imagine his reaction to being told Cameron wants to talk about the impending arrest of Damian Green. Silent mouthings, I’m not here, I’m in Brussels, to the unfortunate Civil Servant holding the phone.
75. Tory mole and his paymasters
Roger watch yourself mate, that would be seen as an open goal against your tight purse as you would not let Mike take the fall for you would you?
75 - I’m not sure you actually care about ANYTHING other than that the Tories aren’t in power Roger. You got a bit worked up about Lebanon, but other than that i can’t recall you actually offering your opinions on very much at all.
63 - Well the Tories have got the German Govt on their side, which is hardly insignificant.
54. “The trouble with Labour supporters is that they believe that their moral purpose is so superior to the rest of us that any act is worth it in order to gain and stay in power.”
Hang on, aren’t we getting a bit over the top here?!
I am, as you know a Labour supporter and I was certainly troubled by the apparently heavy-handed and disproportionate police action.
Equally, the guy who leaked this stuff will undoubtedly be sacked, and deservedly so.
In answer to your question “has the story any impact beyond the Westminster village” the answer is NO. The Tories have made the mistake of thinking that because the story is of huge interest to politicians and the media that the generally public are equally interested. Of course they’re not, and at the onset of a serious economic recession, they’re definitely not!
77 GeoffH. Yes I am dim. I said as much in my post when I asked for help. Thanks for replying anyway.
73. Try this one:
http://tinyurl.com/6rsflm
Please stop repetitive comments
All comments should add something to the discussion and I will clamp down even more on those who just keep on bringing the same point up time and time again.
As ever the first sanction is being “Yellow Carded” - you can’t post instantly on the current thread.
Many thanks.
73. Bush is an imbecile. He has no right to call anyone a lightweight. But it does make me wonder about Cameron. I mean we were told at first what a bright young chap he was, got a first after all, risen quickly up the ranks in politics. However we’ve seen very little evidence of his intelligence. Maybe that’s the way politics is now, they assume the public aren’t interested in serious debate so why bother? It will all go over everyone’s heads. You’ll just confuse them. But there is something about the supposed Obama quote that rings true in my mind. Economics is supposed to be Cameron’s strong suit but he hasn’t covered himself in glory during the whole financial crisis.
As a retort to all the repetitive crap that Gabble keeps chanting about David Cameron being conseidered a “lightweight” by President-elect Obama,
From Newsweek 23rd August 2008
“With Gordon Brown’s poll numbers suffering, British opposition leader David Cameron is starting to act like prime-minister material. Even though elections may be two years off, Labour M.P.s are complaining that Cameron’s already setting the agenda in Parliament. In July, Cameron met with U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama, the only European opposition leader without an active foreign-policy position to do so. And while 10 Downing wavered over Russia’s invasion of Georgia, Cameron quickly hopped on a plane to Tbilisi, beating Secretary of State David Miliband to the scene.”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/154982?tid=relatedcl
In fact, Obama seems more critical of Brown’s style of government.
Daily Telegraph, Jul 26, 2008
And then Obama reveals his philosophy for taking decisions,
“The truth is that we’ve got a bunch of smart people, I think, who know ten times more than we do about the specifics of the topics. And so if what you’re trying to do is micromanage and solve everything then you end up being a dilettante but you have to have enough knowledge to make good judgments about the choices that are presented to you.”
http://tinyurl.com/6e7e4d
I provided a few threads ago a brief summary of some data that I had put together about trends and shifts evident from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. I decided to go a bit further and extrapolated forward to 2012 the trends that manifested themselves over the two mentioned presidential elections.
If 2012 ends up being a 50/50 election in terms of national popular vote AND the state-by-state trends continue into 2012 just as they were from 2004 to 2008, the following would be the closest, or swing, states, from closest to least close (and with its lean indicated by an “R” or a “D”):
Minnesota (R)
New Hampshire (D)
Pennsylvania (D)
Iowa (D)
North Carolina (R)
Virginia (D)
Ohio (R)
Colorado (D)
Indiana (D)
New Jersey (D)
This list of swing states differs somewhat from my previously provided list since this group was determined based on existing partisan shifts continuing to 2012, rather than based strictly on 2008 partisan standings. It is certainly open to debate which approach is likely to be more accurate. This analysis also seems to indicate that the Democrat would likely win a 50/50 election in 2012 since most of the closest states would tip their way.
Most of the above-mentioned states are drifting only moderately one way or the other, and the states showing the greatest shifts tend to be strongly Republican states (either becoming even more Republican or becoming less Republican but still reasonably solidly in the GOP camp).
Interestingly, Minnesota is THE bellwether state in this analysis, with the the Republican candidate winning by 0.1% of the vote. By either this analysis or by my previously provided analysis, Minnesota must be considered a pivotal swing state in the next presidential election.
76. McNulty’s been very quiet this week and is usually all over the airwaves when a Home Office story breaks. My money’s on him too.
Superb cartoon and a wonderful likeness of the Home Secretary
Frau Obergruppenfuehrerin Tschaki Schmidt
Are we expecting Populus this evening? I’ve forgotten when it usually comes out
In answer to your question “has the story any impact beyond the Westminster village” the answer is NO
This crass generalisation only goes to emphasise the utter contempt that Labour supporters have for our democracy and the electorate.
re 89. Populus should be with us on Monday evening.
90. It isn’t contempt, you nitwit, it’s just being realistic.
91. Mike any idea what happened to the Yougov Poll that MTF and others mentioned at the weekend?
93 someone suggested it might be a private poll.
92. Ah realism for someone whose online name was the name of the cow in the ‘Magic Roundabout’. Ok fine………whatever
94. Thanks MTF - didn’t realise…..
92 - It may or may not be realistic, but your line that
“The Tories have made the mistake of thinking …”
basically says that anything that doesn’t resonate with the electorate isn’t important, and isn’t worth pursuing. There are many things at Westminster that don’t at first glance seem to have wider resonance, but often they turn out to be important in the end.
80 ermintrude In answer to your question “has the story any impact beyond the Westminster village” the answer is NO. The Tories have made the mistake of thinking that because the story is of huge interest to politicians and the media that the generally public are equally interested. Of course they’re not, and at the onset of a serious economic recession, they’re definitely not!
That’s confusing two points. Yes, it is at least partly true that the story is not of great interest to the wider public, although Charles Kennedy (to take one example) said on the Today programme this morning that many people had asked him about it. Also it would become more important if there’s a dramatic new development.
But the political importance of the story is immense, because of its effect on MPs and the media. It has, after all, been going strong for a week now, and will certainly continue to be important for some time yet. It will also have a big impact on the Met.
But Mike is right - the original story might have been a one-day wonder. Labour handled it incredibly badly, and the story has grown and grown.
80 - “has the story any impact beyond the Westminster village” the answer is NO.
Well myself and at least two other people I’ve spoken to are spitting blood about it - and none of us are anything whatsoever to do with the Westminster Village. OK, we’re only 3 people but that’s 3 more than none at all.
Did nobody ever teach you that all generalisations are wrong?
Iain Dale of Jacqui Smith’s defence of thought crime…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/12/i-am-arrested-for-future-shoplifting.html
91 - Mike, so is this apparent ICM tonight a load of Ed Balls, as it were?
99 I think the quote is “all generalisations are wrong - including this one”!
stars and stripes.
You surprise me with that Minnesota thing,as even when McCain was ahead in the national polls he got nowhere near in Minnesota.
O/T
Someone on the last thread asked about the current position of other opposition parties in Europe.
- in France, the Parti socialiste has spent the last months in agressive infighting. The new leader, Martine Aubry will announce later this week the composition of her team. They have been heavily ridiculed for recent events (especially the fraud-ridden vote of members for the new leader’s election) and for their regular abstentions in important parliamentary votes (bank rescue plan, Afghanistan war effort, constitutional reform, reform of minimum benefits…) because they disagree with each other. However, being the main opposition still maintains them at a decent support level. They even won a parliamentary by-election last Sunday in Arcachon (on a 9% swing). The local factors were good for them (the former MP resigned after gaining a seat in the Senate and the new UMP candidate being a former rebel, at odds with a lot of the local UMP) but it still means they can gain marginal seats (the seat was PS in 1997 (their last government) and UMP in 2002 and 2007). Also, the first poll for next year’s european election has PS and UMP tied at 22% with a big rise for the far-left (8%) and other leftist parties (Greens 12% and communists 4%).
- in Germany the SPD has been very weakened by the rise of the more leftist Die Linke party (that includes the former communist party of East Germany). Die Linke uses the SPD position as a junior partner in government to present itself as the true leftist alternative. Current polls are good for Merkel. yesterday a Forsa poll gave the following numbers: CDU-CSU 38%, SPD 23%, FDP 12%, Die Linke 12%, Greens 10%.
If a general election is fought according to traditional alliances, that would give the traditional right-wing coalition (CDU CSU FDP) 50% and the former left-wing coalition under Schroeder (SDP/ Greens) only 33%. Thus, some SDP members are advocating an alliance with Die Linke but that would probably mean a loss of moderate support either to the FDP or the CDU.
- in Italy, the last poll gives the following numbers (with comparison with last election)
right wing coalition
PdL (Berlusconi) 41.5 (+4)
Lega Nord + MPA 10.5 (+1)
left wing coalition
PD (Veltroni)34 (+1)
IdV 5 (+0.5)
Centre UDC 4.5 (-1)
Far-left 2.5 (-0.5)
Far-right 1 (-1.5)
So Berlusconi still comfortably leads in the polls, the situation being quite stable since the election.
- In Spain, the last poll gives 41.3% to the PSOE government, 39% to the PP opposition, very close to last March GE result (PSOE 43.6, PP 40.1). The two parties stay very close in the polls (the PP was even ahead in September and October) and Zapatero’s ratings have declined a bit.
Did anyone else find this an absolutely disgraceful remark:
“Det Supt Andy Brennan, who led the investigation, described Matthews as “pure evil”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/7763260.stm
…and why does the media keep on using Shannon’s image. She’s been found now and deserves her privacy.
98. From the start, the Government should have supported the Police’s ‘operational independence’ but tonally they should have given the impression of surprise about it and sounded less than convinced by what the police were doing.
Has Byrne been available for comment or questions at all this week?
Surely his Cabinet role makes him the last Minister in the jigsaw puzzle who might have been contacted and informed?
Did the police simple state that they did not inform Smith directly, or did they rule out direct contact with all Cabinet Ministers?
And yes I know Straw has been visible, but has he actually opened his mouth and taken any questions?
104 - Chris, Many thanks. Your excellent contributions are often sadly overlooked in the inevitable hurly-burly of UK politics, but be assured there are many of us who greatly appreciate them.
105. No, she has been found guilty by trial and a jury!
She could well be construed as being evil for what she did, remember countless numbers of other crimes will not have been investigated due to her! £3.2M was spent on investigating the bogu case.
You obviously believe in wasting taxpayer money Gabble! Bit like the Green areast IMO!
Maybe you are Gordon Brown! If you are F*ck off!
If not stop trolling! 
107. Straw took some questions during one of his sessions at the elbow of the Home Secretary. Channel 4 from memory
105 No. Next pointless question Gobble?
103- Yes, part of the fun in doing the analysis was in discovering the surprises lurking in the data. Basically, my approach was to determine how the candidates did in each state in the 2004 and 2008 elections COMPARED TO THEIR OVERALL NATIONAL RESULTS. I then took the shift in those numbers from 2004 to 2008 and projected it forward to the next election (resting upon the mighty presumption that existing trends will continue in their existing direction and amplitude). This approach makes Minnesota the closest of all states, among other surprises.
106 Frank - Quite so. And Mandelson’s attempt to smear Damian Green on Monday was highly counter-productive.
I think that if Jacqui Smith is found out to have known in advance -having denied this repeatedly- then it goes with out saying, she’ll have no option but to resign.
The question is- what happens if Brown knew, having denied this repeatedly?
Mild version of Watergate perhaps????
105
Yes it’s disgraceful
Mangled English
No-one can be “oure” and “evil”.
Utterly evil would be far better.
Keep up the work of English pedant: you’re better at that than politics…:-)
113. Sorry if this has been posted already, but for Mandelson fans of all stripes…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/7765084.stm
The banks have not agreed the deal
110 Be interesting to know what questions Straw felt he needed to jump in and head off Jacqui from saying something untoward! Anyone help?
105 Gabble. Good spot. Yes - it is a disgraceful remark. Det Supt Andy Brennan used completely the wrong adjective. Instead of saying “pure evil”, he should have said “totally evil” or “completely evil”.
“Pure” has positive connotations, and should not be used when describing “evil”.
86. Minnsesota surprises me also! IIRC it was the only state to back Reagans opponet in 1984! I think Mondale won District of Colmbia by a healthy margin though!
New Jersey is interesting as it did not swing as violently toward Obama as say New York seemed to! If BO is seeking reelection in 4 years (Which would seem likely) you are right to say this looks interesting as do some of the other states!
117. Sorry, I think he was asked for his opinion independently as they just happened to be standing together at the time
Richard Nabavi -Richard, as you clearly have an inside track, could you tell us whether Cameron took legal advice as to what constitutes an inducement..
Has anyone else noticed that Question Time comes from Northern Ireland, it will be interesting to see what politicians over their make of a front bench running a civil service mole for two years.
And the Tories have produced yet another hapless Public Schoolboy to go up against Johnson
108- JohnO
Thanks. Quite surprisingly, I’m even more addicted to european politics since I moved to the US this summer.
(I think my wife is now used to my pb.com addiction!)
105. Rather like your own comment, it’s excessive. Using terms like ‘pure evil’ is the sort of thing that should be reserved for those who commit truly horrific crimes. Using it for this case tends to debase it. That said, neither is it “an absolutely disgraceful remark” - she was found guilty, after all.
114 If Jacqui resigns because she knew, but Gordon were to stay even though he knew, then the Labour Party would have to force him to walk the plank. It may well be the final straw to force a number of Labour MP’s to leave the Party. Hell, even Nixon had sufficient residual honour to resign…
67. Ted “Would you put money on Green being charged?”
Interestingly I was convinced that no-one would be charged over the cash for honours when most on here thought otherwise. I also resented the police keeping twelve officers occupied for over a year on such a futile exercise.
If you’ve read Spycatcher you’ll know the danger of a politicized civil service. More dangerous than a police force acting with excessive zeal. So though they’ve taken a sledge hammer to crack a nut if it’s found that this civil servant was paid in money or kind then I hope Damien Green will be charged.
Would I put money on it? Owing to the cowardice of the police and the ascendancy of the Tory Party probably not
121. Tim, welcome back…
Why would the Conservatives seek legal advice? As pointed out today Damian Green has not even been accused of “counselling or procuring misconduct in a public office”…
Sadly, it appears the Home Secretary gets her information from press releases. That really gives me confidence in the executive.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/12/scrutinising-home-secretarys-arse-and.html
97. No, I didn’t say that it isn’t an interesting story or that it’s not worth pursuing.
But there is often a difference between the professional politicians’ view and that of the man or woman in the street — is that not obvious? The whole point of this being a betting site is that it is based on scientific measurement of the electorate via opinion polls. It has amused me no end that following a recent poll showing support for Labour at a reasonable level some conservative commentators have been unable to believe it.
As Mike frequently points out, what matters is not how big a story is but how it rates in relation to other stories. At a time when the economy is going into a tailspin and large numbers of individuals and businesses are affected then this is going to loom larger in people’s minds.
In this context Gordon’s announcement about help for people with mortgages was not super-ingenious, it was just a professional politician for once getting it right and using a bit of common sense.
Alas, I have to go out in 15 minutes so will not be able to participate in this interesting discussion any longer. It’s why I don’t post all that often, to be honest. It is remarkable how some of you guys are on the site all day and all night long!!
[but I do not imply any criticism in saying this -- good luck to you.]
Tim - you keep saying the same thing over and over and I am genuinely lost as to your point. Are you now suggesting Cameron should be investigated by the police and if so, what for?
126 - I think you’re missing the point.The question is whether they took legal advice at the beginning of the process with the leaker,to establish what constituted an inducement.
Cameron will not answer this, neither will Grieve.
119- Ever since the election, I’ve been displeased about the intellectually sloppy way that swing states are judged in the media, seemingly based only on how close they were in this election. Of course, you can’t determine which states are in the “middle” merely by looking at which states were closest in an election that wasn’t really close at all. That got me started on trying to evaluate which states are genuinely close in a 50/50 national election scenario, either based on current partisan standings on a state-by-state basis or based on where the states will stand if they continue to drift in their current directions (right to left or left to right). I think this is a much more useful way to determine which states will be most important to target in the next election.
tim - we hear the question but what on earth is your point?
As for Iain Dales judgement, isn’t he one of the “Palin is a good pick” guys who should still be in extra classes?
125. FFS Roger, Brown used to leak stuff about Naval dock yards not even in his brief! Stop being so bloody pompus! Labour have screwed up the economy for those of us who live in the UK for tax perposes and have started acting in a way no other post war government have in terms of restricting political debate!
As redemption Roger will you dip your hand in your deep and gilt edged pockets to sponser the next PB bash? Unlimited champaign would be great!
129. I suspect that’s because it’s bollocks. Have you stopped beating your wife yet?
126 ‘Why would the Conservatives seek legal advice?’
Because it’s sensible. Any individual or organisation involved in a sensitive legal issue such as this would always seek counsel.
130 - If you’re analysis is correct then surely Minnesota would be at least close in the polls when McCain was ahead nationally.
With McCain and Bush out of the way,the Latino vote secured and changing demographics in the SW, I suspect that the Democrats should be looking at Arizona and Texas with a view to screwing any electoral coalition that the Republicans can come up with.
tim - please can you tell us your point, please?
EdP
“Any individual or organisation”
So you think the Civil Servant had a number of minders and the potential Prime Minister was organising a breach of the Civil Service code?
Thats on hell of a charge Ed.
136- Of course, this analysis is based not on polls but rather actual election results. If you look at how Minnesota voted in this election, you’ll see that Obama did only very slightly better there than he did on an overall national basis.
Also, my analysis is based on a 50/50 election in terms of national popular vote. Of course, if the Democrats lock up every state except those in the Deep South and a few Rocky Mountain states, we’re in for permanent one-party rule and there will never be another 50/50 election.
re 138. Tim as you are being legalistic. Please tell me the crime that Green is said to have committed and, as its common law, can you give me precedents that apply to this case? That is all that matters.
Tim Nice but Dim. IT DOESNT MATTER HOW MANY TIMES YOU TRY TO PUT WORDS INTO OTHER PEOPLES MOUTHS. THEY ARE STILL YOURS AND I SUGGEST YOU ARE MORE CAREFUL ABOUT WHAT YOU WRITE.
Did the police take legal advice? Did the home secretary and/or cabinet office take legal advice? Tell us Tim. We await your response.
This is fuzzy law land.
138 out on a limb - given that the aim is exposing government cover ups, lies and inadequacies then good on them I say - I think its perfectly reasonable of the opposition to seek legal advice in this instance.
Hypothetical example
‘We have tis guy - he has provided some really solid information, exposing government cover-ups and scandals, he is taking a big risk and we want to recognise that. We are not sure what we can do though and ensure we are acting within the law, which is paramount here, what do you think?’
It’s really not a big issue unless they were asking what more they needed to do to ensure they WERE breaking the law - because they think its fun or whatever.
Tim - as well - did Gordon Brown take legal advice when he was getting all those leaks in the 1992-1997 period? Tell us. Otherwise please move on.
Greengate is a long term hit pollwise, it isn’t going to show an instant benefit. I still can’t fathom why the government goes for these short term hits like the mortgage stuff yesterday, which now seems paltry in the extreme (just as the PBR showed Brown playing with a piddling amount as opposed to something radical from Obama). Long term hits stay, short term ones fizzle quickly.
That the government have been hiding information from the voters will seep into their consciousness in time. It is too important not to, too close to the whole concept of representative democracy. Sooner or later, given enough leaks and open government, the state of affairs will cease, leaving us with a much more effective democracy.
Are the any rumours about who this minister actually is?
Mike - respectfully that is not how it will be seen outside Westminster if the Tory front bench were seen to be running this guy for two years.
Who takes legal advice about what constitutes inducements?
People who are considering offering inducemnts.
If they weren’t thinking of offering him anything then why take legal advice.
But we don’t know yet whether or not a potential Prime Minister was party to a group of people who were considering what constitutes inducements.
145 spot on UK Paul.
Greengate may not resonate with the public at the moment, but if a Minister or two were to have to resign over it because they had lied to or misled parliament, then I would suggest the public might sit up a bit more and take notice.
149. - Thats true, and the same risks apply to the Tories.
Gabble –
In favour of innocent people being detained for 42 days, having their DNA stored forever and being forced to have an ID card.
*Not* in favour of a lying, exploitative, child-abusing, white-trash kidnapper being described as “pure evil”.
Spot the hyprocrisy.
2“On meeting Cameron, Obama was, according to diplomatic sources, “distinctly unimpressed”,”
Oh, for god’s sake this was demolished yesterday.
The guy this originated with is a labour supporter claiming unnamed sources, who is close to Mandelson and who wrote his biography. Clearly he has learned well at his master’s feet.
Even the biggest partisan could see this ’story’ for what it is.
re 69 I’ve always thought the election was going to be in June 2010, and very profitable it was last Autumn too.
“She’s been found now and deserves her privacy.”
It’s a good thing she doesn’t have an ID card, eh?
147 respectfully my eye, There is nothing about respect with your smear and innuendo. Be careful what you post. it might just come back and bit you.
150. But tim, the Conservatives involved have already admitted that they knew about it. Cameron was told about the investigation and Boris also admitted speaking to the police about it.
I don’t see where the Consevatives could possibly be accused of having lied or misled parliament on this issue.
Labour Ministers , on the other hand, have all denied any knowlege of knowing anyhting about the plans to arrest Green. They might just get away with it, but even the most devout Labour supporter must fear the truth will come out as it all starts to unravel.
147. At the risk of getting yellow carded, I have asked you to spell out what ‘the point’ you keep referring to actually is. You keep ignoring this. If your ‘point’ is that someone who takes legal advice is automatically guilty of a crime than I am left somewhat confused. I have absolutely no knowledge who did or did not take legal advice in this case but is that the ‘point’ you are trying to make? I would not be at all surprised if someone receiving leaked information did take legal advice. That is surely right and proper, to ensure they are NOT breaking the law if they then, let’s say, release that information.
146.I am sure more than one journalist is combing through the comments of all Cabinet Ministers during the past week right now. I would imagine the focus will now turn to those who have been keeping a very low profile.
In amongst all the odd aspects of this case, namely, the sheer incompetence and inability of those in charge in government, the police and the HoC’s has been breathtaking. You really couldn’t make it up. Diane Abbot hit the nail on the head last Thursday, she couldn’t believe that the police had acted without some political cover, which chimes with the comments of previous Home Secretaries from both sided so the House. When Reid and Howard are singing from the same sheet, it really looks bad for Smith.
This story kicked off the Matthew Wright show this morning, and he noted that when Galloway and Vaizey are in agreement on this, he takes note. One thing struck me over the weekend, the sheer lack of a concerted Cabinet offensive in the radio and TV studio’s as a big political story kicked off. I thought it was strange, and put it down to the fact that rumours about the Cabinet meeting last Friday showed that some Ministers were unhappy with the treatment of Damian Green. Even now, can anyone count more than a few Ministers being involved or commenting on this whole matter over the last week? Very strange.
156 - If you think that a potential Prime Minister taking legal advice on what could be offered to a civil servant without breaking the law is a trifling matter then we’ll have to disagree.
We don’t know anyway.Dave and Dominic won’t answer.
Anyway, I suspect I’m annoying Mike so lets move on OK?
147 - the fact that they may, or may not have taken legal advice has no bearing on the case. It is you who are claiming that any legal advice procured was somehow specifically related to this one leaker, when they could have just been seeking advice on leaks in general. In the same way as they took legal advice to keep their donations clearly within the law whereas Labour didn’t. The legal advice could also have said that short of paying someone they had nothing to worry about.
The Civil Service code isn’t legally binding outside of employment of civil servants so claims about that are nonsense.
147 Mea Culpa - I was wrong to post earlier that Damian Green had not been charged with conspiracy, what he wasn’t charged with was “counselling or procuring misconduct in a public office.” which goes straight to your repeated accusations.
The police had no evidence nor made any charge that Damian Green had counselled his contact in the Home Office nor procured (i.e. induced, paid, offered) any misconduct.
The basis of repeated accusations from yourself and intimations of such from others is based on a mistaken belief that he had been so charged, picked up by the spin operation and dropped into ministerial comments.
138 ‘So you think the Civil Servant had a number of minders and the potential Prime Minister was organising a breach of the Civil Service code?’
Please don’t give me the legal shakedown, or put words into my mouth. If I as an individual or my company were involved with or potentially faced a legal action of some kind, I would automatically seek advice. It’s called covering your ar$e - to fail to do so would be negligent to oneself and the business. And seeking such advice would not in anyway imply or suggest guilt.
“You haven’t been at the UKPaul sanctimony tablets again have you Madfish?”
We elect them and we shouldn’t expect them to tell the truth and not to hide anything embarrassing to them?
If that is sanctimony then politics is as close to destroyed as possible.
159
No not ok. Your insinuation is scurrilous and beneath contempt. I hope CCHQ are reading your comments.
75- Roger- I think you have a point. That Galley character looks to be particular odious- a guy who worms his way into a job just to discredit his employer. Yuck.
What an unpleasant character. Vile Tory tricks if you ask me.
And for all the Tories crowing and cackling here- it just doesn’t look good to Joe public to have characters like Galley skulking around. Especially when they are being paid by the tax payer to feather their nest.
Not quite British fair play! The public can smell a rat, and Galley appears to be a rather detestable one.
Did we ever discover if we are due an ICM poll today?
165 Double standards Tyson. What do you think of Brown’s mole?
“it just doesn’t look good to Joe public to have characters like Galley skulking around. Especially when they are being paid by the tax payer to feather their nest.”
What about the ones who fethered the nests of Brown and Cook during the 80s and 90s? Any comment on those, or are moles only detestable when they are Tories?
166 - I don’t believe we did. I might have to shout and wave my hands in the air
91. Thanks Mike.
I am trying to explain the facts of macro-economic life to my son (15) and an interesting topic has cropped up that I am ill-equipped to answer, so I wonder if I could crave the indulgence of the members here – many of whom know far more about these things than I will ever do.
HMG’s need for money over the next five to eight years is going to be massive and they plan to borrow very large sums to meet it. Given that we have a paltry savings rate in this country, we my son and I, are of the opinion that such monies can only come from foreign investors, who may or may not, demand an interest rate premium (but leave that aside for the moment, along with the question of whether they will be prepared to lend the sums required at all).
The point we have reached is that if such vast sums as are being discussed are in fact borrowed what will be the impact on the ability of wealth generating companies to borrow to finance investment. Will the burden of HMG debt be like elephants at the water-hole, i.e. crowding everyone else out?
If that is the case then will not HMG’s borrowing plans actually delay recovery, because at the end of the day any recovery must be based on people who actually produce good and services that people, especially those in other countries, want to buy. Now, for that to happen the export side of the UK economy must grow which they won’t be able to do unless they can invest, which in the majority of cases means borrowing.
I apologise that my question has nothing to do with betting and only indirectly at politics, but no father likes to be unable to give his son a knowledgeable, and mostly accurate answer.
re 154 on the subject of privacy I notice that the two in Strasbourg this morning were awarded €42,000. There are 900,000 other innocent people who have had their human rights breached by this government. That’s €37bn worth of breaches if they all sued. Still what’s a few extra billion in borrowing.
“145 spot on UK Paul.”
I hope you say the same when I start on the next government.
I’m trying to post a link, but it’s being held up.
re 174 does it have a filthy word in it - like m0rtgage?
And I hope all innocent people whose DNA is being retained demand it be deleted immediately.
167- the thing about Galley is that it looks like he deliberately did that job just to get information to leak. I mean how bad is that? The guy was being paid by the taxpayer. Worse than fraud if you ask me- the guy should have the book thrown at him. If Green knew this then he is scumbag too.
I can understand frustrated whistleblowers who get frustrated with their depts. But this Galley is in a different league.
171 Answer is yes - HMG’s need to borrow and ability to pay a premium to do so, will make it harder for UK investors, firms and banks (unless backed by the Government) to borrow on the same markets without paying higher premiums than HMG.
Same applies within UK in public spending, whether financed through tax or by borrowing, which will divert resources from opportunities for growth and profit towards those industries selected by Peter Mandelson, crowding out possible investments in future growth companies.
175-Yes! What can I do?
177 and you would defend that opinion in court Tyson? A few ifs & buts missing.
177 - and what of Brown and Cook’s leakers, or indeed Brown and Cook themselves? Any books heading their way?
Tim, very thin gruel for all your efforts to run the Tories “inducements” line. But Mandy will be pleased with your, nonetheless. Any help he can get with the fog-of-war, all-politicians-are-the-same line greatly valued.
Shame that in the process, it made you look like you don’t even have visiting rights to the real world.
177. Tyson you’re basing your opinion on a few scattered facts about a completely unknown quantity. I do think you are rushing to judgement.
I do think there are some questionable considerations about Galley but of all the characters in this one there is very little background about Galley?
171. Yes Crowding out is a distinct possibility given the continued weakness of sterling! I am currently taking part in a fantasy Investment competetion with JP Morgan!
I am currently in 3rd position on a table of the top 100 performers, the others outside the 100 are not currently in contention for the £35,000 prize! How did i get to third place? I put 85% of my fantasy 100 Million in non Sterling assets mainly Euro’s and Dollars! Of course i could F*ck up and go down the ladder but Sterling is going to continue to tank in the short term, so i think i am competive for the prize!
The Conservatives are once again shooting themselves in the foot.
Do you Tories on here really think the majority of people give one single hoot about the arrest of Damien Green when they are trying to survive a massive economic crisis? Cameron should be talking about mortgages, interest rates, VAT cuts etc. not stupid nonsense about which no-one cares a less. So what if there was / wasn’t a warrant people did / didn’t know in advance? I don’t give a shit, and I don’t anyone else who does outside of the anoraks.
re 177. Well that doesn’t say much for the Home Office’s selection and security procedures. Surely they knew that he’d been a Tory council candidate? Surely you don’t let people get close to sensitive stuff without proper screening?
OH of course - it was the Home Office - famously unfit for purpose.
177.Mike’s post further up the thread says it all really.
180- Ted- if true though, and Galley just used his public service job to look for dirt on his employer- then how bad is that? Almost a kind of immoral fraud.
I run a few public services now, and if I thought one of the people was using his paid salary to drag up dirt on what we were trying to do I would like to see the person pay.
How can you justify Galley’s behaviour in this context? Or do you think he was a genuine whistleblower who kinda stumbled across his information? Argghh yes a flying pig.
184 Martin - Good luck! Maybe it will be you buying the Champagne!
185 - I take it you didn’t see the Conservative broadcast on ITV earlier?
177 Tyson, the “f” word is not one to bandy about lightly. It can prove very expensive - I’d hate the thought of Trotsky being led way by the bailiffs…
181. Apparently the Police are going to dig Robin up and interview him after hadcuffing him!
On a serious point Brown could be done for treason given his leaking of defence related leaks, I doubt he will be but I should imagine many service people will line up to kill Brown!
Vaguely recall some whistleblower in Home Office tried to leak to a LD MP details regarding immigration - two years ago?. LD MP refused to help. Think whisteblower leaked to BNP instead.
WISH TO STRESS THIS IS NOT RELATED TO GREENGATE. But any recall of it? What was the story?
192 - I meant in terms of reputation, you know
189. Alas it goes on for 1 year but it is really interesting and I enjoy it!
185 - It isn’t *about* Damian Green, it’s about the culture of secrecy in government.
It is the fact that they routinely hide embarrassing information for partisan reasons and that they expect people not to reveal that information. It’s the fundamental tenet of democracy, that we need to know the truth about those who rule over us so that we can vote for or against them on that basis.
“It is the fact that they routinely hide embarrassing information for partisan reasons and that they expect people not to reveal that information. It’s the fundamental tenet of democracy, that we need to know the truth about those who rule over us so that we can vote for or against them on that basis.”
Fair point.
So why is Green still sitting on some of the leaks?
188 Tyson. I remember the mid nineties and the stream of leaks made by the Labour party. I always thought “oh, that looks bad” - for the government. I never made an opinion on the whistle-blower but they could have been so easily driven by the same, or worse, motivations as Galley. How can we know? We can’t. The guy took a decision and risked his career.Only he will ever know what his true motivation was but why is he more guilty than those leaker’s back in the mid nineties?
171. You seem to be doing pretty well. Crowding out is (like Ricardian equivalence) something that lots of people talk about but for which the evidence is fragmentary.
So if Ricardian equivalence held fully - eg people know taxes will rise because of government spending and thus save, then there would be no crowding out as people would simply save to pay for what the government borrowed. In reality the evidence for RE is patchy - it does hold to some extent, but it certainly isnt full (one for one).
So, does crowding out occur? To some extent. The FT story last week about coupons on Gilts rising by 10basis points, or 0.1% is evidence that the government is finding it difficult to borrow (at the margin) and this will mean higher rates to some extent for private sector borrowers. But, it is always difficult to disentangle the fall in demand for credit in a downturn when the government is borrowing, the private sector isnt as interested. In the present circumstances we also have the question mark over the stability of the banking system and thus its ability to lend, which is not a direct consequence of government borrowing.
You might want to check out the Feldstein-Horioka Paradox, which showed a high correlation between domestic saving and investment across a wide sample of advanced countries. This (to some extent) would suggest that crowding out is more of a problem as government spending on investment might well crowd out other profitable private sector investment.
re 179 go to this link paste the URL into the box and it’ll give you a tiny url which you can then post.
re 179 sorry that doesn’t seem to work. The link you need is http://www.tinyurl.com
188: You would say the same about Brown’s mole then? The one who was actually top of a shortlist to be a Labour PPC while leaking info to him from her civil service post?
197 - If he is then I hope he won’t (except where there are national security implications, of course).
203 - Won’t sit on them that is…
186- Mike you know well that being a Tory activist should not preclude anyone from a taxpayers paid job, wherever, security included. Why should being a Tory mean that the guy necessarily should act dishonestly, and with no integrity?
People should expect integrity and honesty from their employees. What Galley appears to have done is disgusting. Used his job as a platform to worm his way into senior Tories.
Maybe I am wrong, and the guy is a genuine whistleblower. I doubt it though.
28 Richard, I’m afraid you have again incurred the usual £1 penalty for confusing me with another similarly-named poster.
Completely O/T Re Next Sunderland Manager:
Someone on PB recently suggested on PB that the way to make money on these very large markets for Managers’ jobs was to keep selling the favourite, in this case Sam Allardyce who seems ridiculously short priced at 2.3-1 on Betfair - I’ve laid £30.
So who to back? I don’t fancy any of the short-priced contenders, so I’ve had a couple of quid on Owen Coyle at 33-1, currently working miracles with Burnley (sorry Mike!) and on Kevin Keegan at 40-1, only because this would be deliciously ironic following his recent departure from Newcastle.
197 - you don’t know he is. All you know is that Jacqui Smith has said there were more leaks involved. Leaving aside the fact that there seems to be a gigantic logic gap in calling something a leak when it hasn’t been leaked, all you’re going on is what she says. But then what Labour people say is gospel to you, isn’t it.
“People should expect integrity and honesty from their employers.”
That is what you meant isn’t it?
So, is there to be an ICM, tonight?
Oh gawd.
Can’t we give Greengate a rest for a bit?
Roll on the weekend lagersheds.
202- absolutely. These people who use their jobs to seek political advantage make me sick. I run services- it would be treachery to know that one of my staff had such a personal agenda.
And people who use them are disgusting- but knowing that Brown used people in this way doesn’t surprise me!
211: Sorry, forgot you weren’t one of the ultra partisan types
210- Martin- I have stood on my pulpit enough tonight. I blame Roger (75), and a rather large gin and tonic.
@Tyson:
“These people who use their jobs to seek political advantage make me sick.”
By my reckoning, that’s just about everyone who’s ever had a job. You must spend a *lot* of time retching.
185 If there is one thing worse than losing your house it is losing your liberty and if this might not be on the top of peoples agenda’s right now, Labour deserve to be known as the party who betrayed long cherished hard won liberties, regardless of the effect on the polls.
188 It really depends on whether what you were doing was illegal, corrupt, wasteful or incompetent.
206 - Slaven Bilic looks generous odds.
’strategy’ is the right word — its all a load of bollocks as various commentators are beginning to realise.
If your worried about your bets - the Tories lost after delivering 4 years of economic growth. They delivered a golden legacy. Do you think one days headlines will win an election?
Get your planet sized odds-on brain round this — THIS GOVERNMENT EXISTS ONLY TO PRODUCE THE NEXT HEADLINE.
There seems to be some discussion still about the Green affair. The basic point is - No Crime has been committed.
A high court judge would in all probability not have issued a warrant because no prima facie case had been made that a crime had been committed.
The issue is for an industrial tribunal. Not the anti terror squad.
I put it to you -
Did they know the identity of the leaker before they called in the police?
In any event they knew the identity of the recipient - he sent it to the press.
Thus calling in the police must inevitably lead them to Green. There is no secret about Greens involvement and any notion that he has committed a crime is risible - if he had he could have been arrested when he published his leak.
Especially if the leaker were known then the sole purpose of calling in the police was to smear Green.
206 PfP - Aaagh! That’s twice in two days. I’m clearly becoming a serial offender (or maybe I need new glasses). In fact it’s even worse - I may be guilty of systematically confusing you with PtP.
197.Really Tim? Any knowledge or evidence of this?
198: ‘…but why is he more guilty than those leaker’s back in the mid nineties?’
Ken Livingstone seemed to know on Newsnight the other day. He flatly stated that every previous leak in history had been done out of high-minded principles whereas Galley was the first ever leaker motivated only by self-interest and greed. That’s why the police had to arrest an MP - it was a case unlike any that had gone before.
205. It is just the same for Labour leakers, why did they not get arreasted and Labour MP’s who used the information be prosecuted?
It is complete garbage what you say Tyson. I cannot believe you have gone from potentially voting Tory a couple of months ago to this. Brown and Labour have done nothing to gain your support. Indeed they have put up taxes and started cutting the civil service recently! Hardly congruent with helping hardworking families or tearing up the economic rule book. You are a clever guy! Why have you been taken in by a con-trick, that will lead to more pain for you and about 90% of the population?
220 Thanks Robusticus - silly me!
212- Andrew- listen in my work I have do alot of stuff with Tories. Politics would never get in the way of my job, and should never influence what I need to do. In fact I prefer working with Tories more than any other political group.
So how partisan is that?
Right- off to watch Place in the Sun Home or Away. My favourite programme.
193 - and if the LD had taken the information, would he have been arrested?
188 I have no idea - all we have heard is that he was arrested, he had been a Tory councillor, wanted a job in CCHQ (that though could have been boredom with his CS job as much as anything else) and leaked some embarrassing information, concerned with HO attempts to cover up its mistakes or to identify MPs likely to oppose 42 days - not any strategy plans, national secrets.
Its what was leaked that destroys Ms Smith’s assertions. No conspiracy to undermine national security, just internal cover ups of failures (oh don’t let it out we’ve cleared 5,000 illegal immigrants to work as private security till I can find some way of presenting it that doesn’t look too bad or perhaps a day to bury bad news). An incompetent and badly managed department held up to ridicule.
Mr Galley didn’t leak anything that would damage the effectiveness of the Home Office or ability to discharge its duties.
A jury would laugh the case out of court if a judge hadn’t already dismissed it, in the very unlikely circumstance the CPS would support prosecution.
So why did the police investigate? Because, as Gordon Brown read from his notes yesterday, they were briefed by the Cabinet Office that the Government believed that matters of national security may have been leaked, no evidence of that other than assertion.
208 - To give an example, going way back I was in a school where there were all sorts of strange management dealings going on (can’t give details just in case). There was a story in the local newspapers which was, as all staff knew, a tissue of lies and painted a false pictureof the reality. I contacted the paper and gave them the details which they had not been privy to, documents and so on.
Result, the school circumvented a possibly extended period of struggle and, within a year, a new, and more open management was in place.
I don’t know if they ever found out it was me but, frankly, I wouldn’t have cared if they did. I think the new head (promoted internally) might have sussed it given that I was one of the only staff prepared to turn up to public meetings about the ’situation’.
@116 - Tough day at work but catching up and I’ve watched that clip 6 times on the bounce. Fantastic.
Neil’s facial expressions at the end of the Mandy clip and as he turns to Hoon are priceless.
Could do with a poll or two as we need new meat to tuck in to.
I still like the odds on Straw as next labour leader at 12/1. Clearly there is some kind of media blackout on discussing Brown’s eyesight, but I can still see him going before the next election.
209 - I very much doubt it (famous last words!), but I’m even more intrigued at what the next round of polls will show. Must confess to a certain anxiety on that score: I doubt whether the Green furore has made much of a direct impact. So it’s back to the economy and whether there might be ‘third thoughts’ on the PBR that may favour Labour.
Brittle old Tory that I am.
225. No he had been a candidate! Not a Cllr!
@213:
I’m not blaming you, Tyson.
It’s just that regular posters (and I’m including myself in this) have been rehearsing the same arguments over and over again, five hundred post per thread, three or four or five posts a day, for an entire week.
AND I’M SICK OF IT.
We’re still no closer to any kind of agreement or consensus on a useful answer or outcome. There’s no evidence that the Government were involved. The case against Green looks weak. The SaA has made a tit of herself. Speaker Martin has promised this won’t happen again.
Is there *anything* more than can be said? Truly?
196, 215 etc. Oh puuurleease. Get some perspective. An MP was arrested. Big f-ing deal. He wasn’t carted off to Siberia. He wasn’t sitting on some amazing piece of news. It’s all a near total non-story.
Some of you seem to think politicians are just a confession short of canonisation. His holiness is but a prayer from elevating them to sainthood. For crying out loud - they are nearly all bent as a nine bob note. They steal, they are economic with the truth, they lie, they duck and weave. They are the lowest of the low (with apologies to the exceptions like Nick Palmer). And you expect anyone to give a toss if one of them was arrested?
Blimey … get out more some of you.
197 - the only reason anyone is suggesting that Green is sitting on loads of other leaks is because the Govt is claiming so in an attempt to smear him!
The police haven’t suggested he’s sitting on leaks, Galley didn’t say there were loads of other leaks, Green hasn’t said he’s sitting on loads of other leaks!
How the hell would the Govt know what has and hasn’t been leaked if it hasn’t been released. Unless they’re hiding some whopping embarrassments that they think any half decent leaker would have revealed! It may even be that the whole reason for this scandal is to prevent this major embarrassment being revealed!
205.Not a genuine whistleblower Tyson? How do define what a whistleblower is, apart from the fact that if they have Tory leanings they cannot therefore be a genuine one.
We do not have enough information about the political leanings of those that leaked to Brown etc in the 90’s. But, I suspect that like then, the information was was of public interest and embarrassing to the the then Conservative government.
Remember the modus operandi of this Labour government, smear, smear and innuendo to undermine those that seek to criticise them. They have got a lot of form for doing this. And the last time I looked, it was not a case of innocent until proven to be a Tory, and therefore guilt was automatically assured.
“re 46. How was what Galley did Roger any worse than the leakers who kept up a steady stream of information for Gordon in the 1992 - 1997 period?
The trouble with Labour supporters is that they believe that their moral purpose is so superior to the rest of us that any act is worth it in order to gain and stay in power. Your comment expresses that totally.
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 6:09 pm”
197 Oh dear more smear mor innuendo, but IF Green is sitting on something, I hope its dynamite
Is that why the Govt are so worried? Could it be that the Govt has been hiding info from the people again???? Who knows. does it worry you Tim?
229.
The headlines after the Queen’s Speech will buy Brown some votes. Expect the next set of polls to be buttock-clenchingly disappointing from a Tory lead point of view.
I’m even more brittle!
233. Maybe the government deliberately fed Galley the material - have you considered that?
229 - It’s OK John. There’s bound to be some rocky stuff, but as long as they hold their nerve, come election day i just don’t think that the British Public will be able to bear the thought of 5 more years of Brown. Even Tyson.
First!
Labour have set a precedent. When the Tories get in, they should apply all the same laws too Labour, then repreal them.
Today I read that it will be legal to discriminate against white men. Here is also precedent. Equality must be applied to the same law so that it is legal to discriminate against blacks, women and homosexuals (etc). Perhaps we shall see white people working at the Passport office.
Equality is everything.
225. Indeed when did he apply for a job with Green & was rejected?
236 The headlines after the Queen’s Speech will only rent Brown some votes.
It is always temporary.
Loans have to be paid back.
There will be a reckoning.
(First!)
Tyson. This bloke is no whistleblower. He is a fully paid up Tory who stood as a councillor and had ambitions to become an MP. When Galley was put on TV by his £500 an hour lawyer I thought it could only be a Mandelson masterstroke.
Not only did he look the part but staying silent made him look seriously creepy. When the smokescreen has blown away there are going to be some serious questions for Green and the Tories to answer.
1. Who is paying for his lawyer?
2. Was he paid or promised anything for betraying his employers confidence?
3. Did Green ever contact him looking for particular information?
4. Does Cameron think it’s OK for a civil servant (a diary secretary in this case) to disclose information to the opposition irrespective of content?
tyson @223: arrrgh, sorry, I was actually trying to apologise, wasn’t being sarcastic at all
It seems the thought police have been called in…
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23597306-details/Yard+is+hunting+for+more+moles+across+Whitehall/article.do
227 Scrap - I think the situation here is straightforward - were Brown to resign or be booted out before the next GE, then Straw would rightly be favourite to succeed him as a caretaker.
But were Brown to cling on until he loses a GE for 18 months’ time, then Straw would have no chance as the party would vote for the next generation
I think he’s value at 12-1 on this basis, who’s offering these odds please?
232 - Because politicians are as you say is the reason why we should not allow it to continue. If you just give up in the face of power corrupting, then you become part of the problem.
238 - That’s just the kind of morale-booster that I expect from one of my favourite (seriously) pbc posters! Well done. Completely agree on the no loss of nerve point: Cameron and Osborne are on the right track. Trust the people: they rarely get it wrong.
236 IMHO no polls will really matter now until mid January, when the Christmas shopping / holidays / New Year period is over. Its an optimistic period overall, the pessimism returns with the credit card bills in January.
Would still like to see some though.
232 If MPs are arrested for political motives what chance does the average citizen have.
Re ICM “poll”
I’ve not been able to get any confirmation that a poll is about to be published. On weekdays the one paper that uses the firm is the Guardian and if there was a post-Queen’s Speech survey then it will probably come out tomorrow night not now.
We have learnt not to take contributors to Guido on these matters very seriously. Remember the ComRes poll with a 23% lead from Monday night that proved to be total bollo#ks.
250 - Drat! Was quite looking forward to some excitement!!
re 242. Roger - please answer my points in relation to the leaks to Brown in the 1992-1997 period. Or does that not matter because they came from Labour supporters to a Labour figure?
Talk about hypocrisy.
242:
1. No idea. It could be pro bono. It could be legal aid, since it’s a criminal case and he isn’t exactly rich. It’s pretty irrelevant anyway.
2. No - see his statement.
3. No - see his statement.
4. First of all, he probably think it’s a pretty bad idea to disclose anything that would damage nation security. Secondly, he probably thinks leaks would be annoying if he was in government, as just about any politician would state. But why not ask Brown about this, since he used leaks for his own advantage for a period of 10-15 years.
248
I tend to agree on all of that, good post.
I’ve promised myself not to get too worked up about the polls and see where we are on January 31.
Tory lead then, it’ll only widen.
Labour lead then or within margin of error, game on.
1. Who is paying for his lawyer?
What has that got to do with the tories? How would they know?
2. Was he paid or promised anything for betraying his employers confidence?
Already been denied.
3. Did Green ever contact him looking for particular information?
Been denied he ever asked for anything in particular.
4. Does Cameron think it’s OK for a civil servant (a diary secretary in this case) to disclose information to the opposition irrespective of content?
If it was irrespective of content then surely some would have breached the official secrets act, which they haven’t.
234- christina- OK- just once I am coming out of my favourite programme Home or Away Place in the Sun. But just this once
I once wrote a Whistleblower policy in a past life. The best I have seen since. Should have been used a blueprint. What I wanted to target were people who were so frustrated with their line management that they needed to take things further/ or who felt that their line management were the problem.
We need whistleblowers because bureaucracies inevitably defend themselves, and close ranks.
Galley just doesn’t strike me as a whistleblower. And he has rather taken a strange way of whistleblowing. And what he has whistleblown on doesn’t strike me as stuff that proper whistlebowers whistleblow about.
And now they are on to the best bit on Place in the Sun, Home or Away. And Trotsky will need walking after.
245 PfP - BetFair is 12.5 (as next PM, which is as you say equivalent in this case to next leader). However, I’m not so sure that it’s good value now. Clearly Brown is here to stay unless something totally unexpected happens.
If something unexpected happened in the near future, they’d have time to organise a proper leadership contest, and I don’t think Straw would win that. So for Straw to be next PM or Labour Leader now, it would have to be something that happened in late 2009 or early 2010, with him brought in rapidly as a caretaker, and he wouldn’t be the only possible candidate. That’s a lot of ‘ifs’, IMO.
@Mike:
OH NOES!
Please give us something other then Gr**ng*t* to talk about.
Make a poll up. It works for Guido
All this Green business is about at the end of the day is a typically ill thought out plot by this bunch of utter morons to silence all knowledge/criticism of their failures by killing off moles.
If I had information that would sink this lot I wouldn’t need inducing.
Dow not very happy over the past 30 mins.
(256 - Always that bloody Trotsky that gets the walkies. Hardly surprsing that Tyson is proving such a delinquent moggy. She needs a bit of attention and TLC too you know).
Greengate hasn’t resonated outside westminster, but the lack of a coherant government defence, and labour MP’s openly criticising the government regularly has been a surprise. John Reid today was particularly interesting, he basically said she should have known about the investigation, which backs up the former tory home secretaries views.
171, Today’s Guardian had a double page spread on how the Government debt was funded. It claimed to be using HM debt management figures. Might be worth gettting hold a copy . Nice graphs - load of balls in fact, but it aleast pointed at the elephant in the room for once. It was clear enough for 15 year olds I would think. Crowding out possible, not sure why anyone would hold sterling assets like govt bonds if sterling is in free fall and if real interest rates are negative.
Apologies but I’m getting Greengate overdose syndrome. I just had a vision of the RSPCA taking Gus O’ Donnell to court for cruelty to animals for hunting moles in Westminster!
Someone find some other headlines please!
250 - Mike, thanks for that. Not in the mood to read about more people falling for Labour’s tricks.
Completely off topic but anyone with google earth check out RAF Upper Heyford runway in Oxfordshire
TENS OF THOUSANDS of unsold cars
kind of fits with
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7764341.stm
Just…wow.
(Hope MI5 don’t get me now I have posted about an RAF site…)
re 258. Well the next thread is on a massive UK election on which there is betting but nobody is talking about. The Manchester congestion charge vote. 1.94m voters across nine boroughs and with a week to go the turnout looks as though it will eclipse the one in the London Mayoral election.
It’s all by post and it’s now touching 30% - that’s huge.
267 - Woohoo - an actual betting opportunity!
& to 267 - these are today’s figures:-
BOLTON
Votes received: 54,922
Electorate: 199,819
Turnout so far: 27.5%
BURY
Votes received: 50,336
Electorate: 140,441
Turnout so far: 35.8%
MANCHESTER
Votes received: 79,187
Electorate: 340,730
Turnout so far: 23.2%
OLDHAM
Votes received: 53,661
Electorate: 159,328
Turnout so far: 33.7%
ROCHDALE
Votes received: 46,928
Electorate: 155,830
Turnout so far: 30.1%
SALFORD
Votes received: 47,720
Electorate: 164,982
Turnout so far: 28.9%
STOCKPORT
Votes received: 73, 926
Electorate: 216,973
Turnout so far: 34.1%
TAMESIDE
Votes received: 61,248
Electorate: 164,062
Turnout so far: 37.3%
TRAFFORD
Votes received: 58,980
Electorate: 163,677
Turnout so far: 36.0%
WIGAN
Votes received: 62,349
Electorate: 235,043
Turnout so far: 26.5%
Cameron clunked!
Steve Richards
“Damian Green will soon be forgotten in the recession”
“Cameron made a good speech yesterday in terms of tone and, to some extent, substance as well. Not a word of it will resonate because he was upstaged by Brown’s announcement that dramatically lifted what had been a rather rambling speech. He knew what was coming, the reassuring soundbite that “losing your job should not mean losing your home”.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-damian-green-will-soon-be-forgotten-in-the-recession-1050609.html
262. Never underestimate Brown’s capacity for mendacity or self-destruction. Whether it’s 10p tax, proclaiming Iceland a terrorist state or dealing with people in Whitehall who cross him, the man knows no bounds.
258 Look you might find it boring but this is exactly what the Labour spinners are betting on. If they keep repeating their line enough no matter how far from the point or the truth they believe they will get away with it. They may well get away with not having anyone resign because that is basically about power and shame and frankly they have all the power and have no shame. That does not mean that Mike and most others on here should not continue to refute their nonsense however “boring” it might be.
If a minister is not discovered to have lied then the story may die but hopefully the scar will stay with many in the media, as if this is how the opposition are treated god help journalists.
270. Oh dear, a journalist writes a bad article about Cameron, must be the end of his career.
Well here’s one:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1092006/Government-demand-know-peoples-bedroom-habits-state-intrusion-worst-kind.html
273 - He’ll probably have resigned by tomorrow.
If there is such a large turnout, it can only be one result - no.
Six gunmen shot at Delhi airport.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7766139.stm
273
In the Independent as well! Normally such a rock solid tory rag…
276 - I was in Manchester last week - meeting with one of my biggest suppliers. The sense they had was that it would be a No.
270. And that’s fine as long as repossessions don’t rise. If the reality doesn’t match the rhetoric, expect disillusionment to follow. One of Brown’s political characteristics seems to be his belief that something happens (or doesn’t) simply because he’s said it will (or won’t).
272. Yes spot on - they are hoping the whole thing will become bogged down in a miasma of confusion and keep muddying the waters to try to make that happen.
242 - Are you actually trying to get Mike sued, Roger?
226
There was a similar story on R4 this morning (today prog), somewhewe in America 7?? football pitches full of new cars importers cant sell. New Merc’s 30k (dollars) off, still proving difficult to sell. The electorate isnt being told the whole truth about how bad things are IMHO.
270 Steve Richards says Brown is better than Cameron, shocker!!
re 276. My reading is exactly the opposite. For unless the conurbation agrees to the congestions charges then its loses £2.7bn for transport infrastructure. That’s a heavy inducement
Completely OT - Is anyone watching the Panorama programme on the Shannon Matthews case? The police interviews with the mother are chilling, she was so cold and decieving.
266 “small cars weathered the decline better than most and reported an improved market share.”
Which is very bad news for VAT receipts on new car sales - I would hazard that they may well be down by half on a year ago.
The tories have over-reached themselves over Greengate. There’s a strong counter-narrative that will resonate with the public. The MSM are belatedly catching on:
“…And all the hysterical references to Britain as a police state being made by Tory politicians, bloggers and members of the public, with comparisons flying around with Zimbabwe or the Stasi, are as offensive as they are absurd.”
“Through their absurdly self-aggrandising histrionics, the Tories are now dangerously exposed.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3061281/histrionics-not-history.thtml
274 - Why do they think people will be prepared to divulge this stuff “in confidence”? Everything gets published in 100 years.
@286:
Shannon Matthew’s Mum looks like a right laugh a minute.
Her teeth give me the RFH.
289 - Or left on a train the next week
285 I don’t know how it has been sold in manchester but anti-road pricing was the most popular no10 petition.
Mike. My memory of the Tory years included the prosecution of Sarah Tisdall who was jailed for leaking to the Guardian the date of the delivery of Cruise missiles after Michael Hesseltine gave false information and Clive Ponting who leaked the fact that the Belgrano was sunk miles from the total exclusion zone.
In both cases the story was about the civil servants-not the police enquiry or the receiver of the leak. To even suggest the odious Galley can be compared to real whistleblowers is to insult the real thing. As for Brown’s leakers-I don’t know. The Tories were not averse to prosecuting so if they didn’t perhaps they couldn’t find them?
Gabble, if you’re going to keep bombarding us with articles, you could at least do them within a couple of days of them being written.
285 - But in this time of an economic downturn would you be prepared to vote for paying an extral toll to get to work each day? I don’t think so.
Also, correct me if I am wrong, but isn’t the question in this referendum rather misleading?
288 Ex-communist not remotely concerned about civil liberties Shocker!!!
@288:
It’s you, isn’t it Gabble. You’re the reason why NOBODY WILL STFU ABOUT GREENGATE EVEN FOR A SECOND.
You’re like some political white hole, spewing media detritus into the gaping maws of primed PBC hacks.
“Come to bed, dear.”
“I can’t! Gabble is wrong on the Internet!”
AAAAAAAAAAAAARGH. I’m gonna track you down and rip your arms off at the sockets if you don’t stop doing this to me, Gabs, me old chum.
296. That said the forme communist and Home Secretary John Reid was less than supportive of the government today over Green-gate.
293 - Are you completely INCAPABLE of understanding that what the Tories are angry about is the arrest of Green? As it happens they don’t think the Police have a case against Galley, but that’s not the point. All you do by bringing up Ponting, Tisdall et al is draw attention to the fact that there was never any question of prosecuting any MPs who received the leaks?
They don’t care about the motivation of leakers. It’s irrelevant as long as the information being leaked is in the public interest.
“And all the hysterical references to Britain as a police state being made by Tory politicians, bloggers and members of the public, with comparisons flying around with Zimbabwe or the Stasi, are as offensive as they are absurd.”
The Stasi never introduced ID cards of the kind Labour is pushing ahead with.
293 nuclear missiles and war secrets. not quite the same thing as the number of Labour MPs going to vote against the government. Hence why Greens arrest was political not remotely national security.
288 - Note to Gabble, linking to Melanie Phillips automatically results in the linkers personal humiliation.
The batty right wing loon has never been knowingly right on anything (see Simon Heffer for similar).
293 What has the odious Roger ever done that remotely compares with what he terms “the odious Galley”, who at least risked his career to highlight that which the Government wants to keep hidden - simply because it is a political embarressment.
How many of your properties would you give up, Roger, to preserve democratic government? Would you even skip a good lunch?
@300:
Though, to the Stasi’s credit, you don’t need ID cards if you’re watching everyone all the time anyway.
283. Check out the video
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7764341.stm
299 Roger thinks that all Tories should be arrested, so obviously he can’t understand what the fuss is about. As Yellow Submarine quite rightly said in his valedictory post, we have to try to understand the mindset of people who vote Labour, hard though it is.
Might as well point out that for all her fine words, even Melanie Phillips couldn’t quite let the thing go…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3062761/a-curious-inconsistency.thtml (a more up-to-date article than Phillips, above)
@302:
That’s not fair. Mad Mel is not right about much. But she often has a point when it comes to Israel. It seems to be the one topic that she knows whereof she speaks.
304. Well that is Labour’s other plan, with its giant database of every communication.
293: Brown’s leaker was found, and dealt with internally by the civil service. A nice polite behind the scenes compromise was reached, and she left her job.
She’s now a Labour MP.
282. Alex. You aren’t one of the posters I would normally expect such a stupid comment to come from. Who on earth could find anything to sue me for in my post 242?
re 293. You’ve hit the nail on the head Roger. The big difference between this and other leaking sagas is that the authorities have gone for the recipient. That takes it into completely new territory and a factor which I don’t think that anybody had thought through.
If Green faces charges then John Major could easily file complaints against Brown. What do the Met do then. That could start to get nasty.
Certainly it’s right to go after the leaker - but the recipient? No way.
Cameron was the first to use the ‘Stalinesque’ description of the Greengate affair. I described him as ‘deranged’ at the time. Now the dust is settling, I hope there is a closer analysis of this political inadequate. It’s already starting:
“I cannot remember the last time there has been such hysteria over something so relatively minor as the Damian Green affair. Rarely can so many normally reasonable people have lost so many of their marbles. I’m not just referring to the accusations of Stalinism and police state being bandied about. When I read of such grotesque comparisons being made, I genuinely worry for the mental and intellectual balance of those who profess such views. If they know anything about Stalin and police states, it is scandalous and dishonest to make such emotive connections, unless they believe them, which is even worse.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/03/features-comment
@306:
I doubt that Roger is in any way representative of ‘people what vote Labour’ generally.
I think Rodge is a bit of a sui generis kinda guy.
308 - Well, we disagree on that point and I think we already went over that ground some time ago.
Tory MP arrested for leaks.
Speaker and SAA have reputation in tatters.
Sounds like a tyical Labour plot from where I sit.
backfires and hits someone who was not the original target.
Pissups and breweries spring to mind.
No wonder Tim and Gabble are working hard to minimise the collateral damage.
(
288 Gabble. When WILL you realse that trying to find anyone to support your view will be countered by others with an opposing view who will find hyperlinks diametrically oppsed you yours.. Your posts are a waste of time because you NEVER say anything yourself, you just post hyperlinks. Is that your sole purpose in life? If so its terribly sad, as are you.
All speculation of course, but it’s going to look quite bad for the Police if it turns out that they requested, but were denied, a request for a Search Warrant of the House of Commons.
We’ve been told that they didn’t need warrants if they arrested Green. Which begs the question - why did they get them for the other searches?
257 Richard - on reflection, you are probably right about Straw being unlikely to succeed Brown. I was being unduly influenced by my conviction that Brown just isn’t going to last the course, unless he were to call an early GE, i.e. within the next 6 months.
What sort of shape do you think the UK economy will be in by next summer? I could give you you my view, but I wouldn’t wish to impose sleepless nights on you.
“Though, to the Stasi’s credit, you don’t need ID cards if you’re watching everyone all the time anyway.”
NuLab wants BOTH!
285 Mr Smithson, scarce dare say it but I think you are wrong to dismiss a No vote - look at where the higher turnouts are on the table you published. Commuter territory. Doesn’t the outcome require a certain number of boroughs to accept the proposal so popular vote overall doesn’t matter?
293. Oh so whistleblowers can only be whistleblowers if they comply with your agenda.
Typical Brown Borg drone stuff.
Resistance Is Futile. You will be assimilated
Enuff said……..
In Canada, the effort to prevent Harper from forming another Conservative minority government appears to be falling apart in the immediate aftermath of Harper’s having obtained an effective parliamentary recess until January. It seems this is the case primarily as a result of the reluctance of certain Liberal MP’s to make common cause with the separatist BQ in order to form an anti-Tory coalition.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9009674.html
317 Even sadder than Gabble is poor bugger who has to find all those hyperlinks for him….
311 - Who said anything about sueing you?
Alex. What the Tories are angry about is that Jaqui Smith believes she has a right to have an office where everything isn’t going to be leaked to the opposition.
@317:
I think the thing I’ve just realised about Gabble is that, in many ways, he’s the engine of PBC more perhaps even than Mike and Morus and Double Carpet.
I suspect that without Gabble’s highly-calculating interventions, we’d only have a fraction of the posts.
In fact, I’m absolutely convinced he’s the one person that’s kept us talking about this solidly for a week.
Gabble should be burgled senseless by Black Rod until he agrees to let up for a bit.
293 Roger, you are stupid and rich, which means you are a labour supporter! Look at this leak, which a now deceased member attributed to Gordon Brown with regard to defence and a then minister pounced upon!
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1994/may/06/rosyth-naval-base#S6CV0242P0-04027
The hon. Lady made great play of the brochure and praised the hon. Member for Dunfermline, East (Mr. Brown) for his great role as an investigative journalist from the Daily Record in uncovering great leaks. In the second world war one of the most potent pieces of military equipment was the Browning gun. What we are seeing now in Scotland is a familiar new weapon—the Gordon Browning media gun instead of the Browning machine gun.
Roger are you going to pay for the party or is your stupidity as great as your wealth and privileged background?
326 - Perhaps she should stop covering so much stuff up then?
314. Martin Coxall.
Isn’t Sui Generis one of SeanT’s girlfriends?
@326:
Of course she doesn’t have a ‘right’ to it. What an absurd thing to say.
@stjohn:
In fact, the knowledge that she has people prepared to leak in her office is probably the only reason she ever pre-emptively reveals anything at all! (if she does, i’m struggling to recall…)
What Roger fails to mention is that the Ponting Affair resulted in Conservative Government amending the OSA and removing all non National Security considerations from it. Hence the police having to dig up some comatose law most used in the 18th Century to do anything about this Cabinet Office complaint.
Roger do you agree Brown should be prosecuted for Treason then on your grounds of Tory wrong doing?
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1994/may/06/rosyth-naval-base#S6CV0242P0-04027
The duplicity that is once again involved and the failure to provide open information are disgraceful. The only way in which we have managed to get information is through the efforts of my hon. Friend the Member for Dunfermline, East (Mr. Brown) and through the investigative journalism of a number of newspapers. I mention in particular the Daily Record, the Evening News in Edinburgh, and The Sunday Times.
##################################################################
Roger you are a F*cking stupid cnut!
326 - she also believes she has a right to your DNA, your fingerprints and to know into which sex you prefer to stick your private parts. But she’s not a crazy person or anything.
“Burgled”?
Perhaps the appropriate verb would coincidence with the name of a certain pb.com poster known to be a ‘friend of Hollanders’.
302: ‘linking to Melanie Phillips automatically results in the linkers personal humiliation.’
Interesting. The other week Mel was lauding Gordon’s fiscal stimulus on Newsnight; now she’s ‘listening with sober attention’ to Peter Mandelson. Has Cameron said something rude about Israel recently?
Oh and I forgot Ponting was ACQUITTED!
“Everything” isn’t being leaked from Smith’s office. Some things have been.
I assume you wouldn’t have agreed with the statement:
“Jacqui Smith believes she has the right to an office where NOTHING is leaked to the opposition”?
Would you?
If Jacqui Smith wants a secure office, then perhaps she should be honest and open about information that passes through it. If she tries to hide things which are politically embarrassing (and we are talking nothing more than that) then she can hardly complain when there are people who are prepared to put the interests of democracy above self-interest. But that would require egalitarian principles - and I’m sure you couldn’t ever imagine a Tory doing anything like that…
Anyway, off to set.
Mr Day, that was unnecessary.
335:
Martin you are so boring. Roger doesn’t deserve that. Luckily I’m sure he will happily ignore you, as i normally do, but that was over the line.
I suspect you have converted several floating voters to Labour with your incessantly idiotic posting. GO AWAY
319 PfP - I think the economy will be in absolutely awful shape in mid 2009. My guess is that it will get steadily worse until at least early 2010, and perhaps longer.
The other key point is that, even when things improve in economic terms (ie when we eventually start to see some tentative GDP growth), there will be a lag of several months before the public mood improves. That’s basically because companies which start to do a bit better will first have to rebuild their balance sheets and pay down debt before they can start expanding again. It will be just like Lamont’s ‘green shoots’ - he was actually correct, but ridiculed at the time because it just didn’t match the public perception.
So I think that those Labour supporters who calculate that things might be better by spring 2010 are kidding themselves. Whether Mandelson, Brown and Darling share that view I obviously don’t know, but my guess is that Mandelson and Darling at least are under no illusions.
By the way, I think the idea that the police are hunting through Whitehall is really going to improve morale and trust between the Civil Service and the Government
326 Roger Does she have the “right” to withhold information that would be politically damaging, despite the fact that its true?
If you believe so, then that’s apalling. John Major suffered for years with leaks and he never arrested an MP. Stalinist. you got it.
@338:
Mad Mel hates Dave. She has done since he first appeared.
And when Dave started doing well by moving to the centre, in direct contravention to Mel’s instructions, she started to hate him more.
Dave’s a moderate, centrist, liberal, wet, why-can’t-we-all-get-along kinda guy. He’s *everything* Melanie hates.
He’s probably a MUSLIM too.
Unkind words about Jacqui Smith
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3550553/Sketch-Jacqui-Smith-the-Lady-Bracknell-of-Labour.html
347 - people like Phillips and Hitchens are quite amusing in a way. Both a pair of old lefties whose real motivation for hating Dave is the class war.
Mike’s already made a similiar point about Galley getting a job but what does it say about the Home Office if a junior official can get his hands on anything that is classified.
This is the same office that gave security passes to 5000 illegal immigrants.
348. Indeed following on from the last line of the article she is more interested in what our sexual preferences are.
242 & 243. Yes he does - Roger has been pompus about this but his Labour PM is guilty and quoted in parliament by a then fellow Labour MP. He has persisted to continue to proceed with defimation of charater despite evidence that shows his hero Gordon Brown to have leaked information that is associated directly with National defence.
Maybe my words are harsh but Roger has persisted in following a stupid and ignorant line that actually would incriminate Brown.
going back to 266
Be careful, those pictures could be years old.
There may be a whole new set of cars rusting away at Upper Heyford.
@349:
Is Mel an ex-leftie then? I did not know that. That possibly explains a lot.
That Mad Mel should move closer to Brown, as per her repulsive newpaper, makes me content that all is right in the world.
@352:
I understand that you disagree with him, but if you go around calling everyone you disagree with a “stupid f*cking c*nt”, you’re unlikely to win them round to your way of thinking.
350 - I’m sure we’ll eventually find that the truth emerges that Galley didn’t have access to anything of any real (non-politically embarrassing) sensitivity at all. I mean, a couple of the 4 things we know he leaked were hardly even political dynamite!
343. Jon C F*ck you! Who do you speak for? I speak for myself and like usual i show givernment flaws!
You just suck the cock of who ever is predominent.
354 - Yep, along with Hitchens. It was very amusing when he did a programme on Mandela a few years ago and managed to do a damning critique of his time in power… from the Left!
310 Andrew, Which Labour MP?
356. He is stupid. he expects everybody else to pick up the tab via taxation that he avoids, he moans about public school backgounds when he was a spoilt brat who went to public school but somehow it does not count.
He berates people who have used leaks but looks over the ones Brown made, yes maybe i was OTT but i don’t deal in double standards.
@358:
Mr Day, might I politely suggest that maybe you should step away from the keyboard for fifteen minutes and go for a walk?
360 - This one
358
Thanks for the laugh…but watch that blood pressure eh?
360 Paul Waugh has done an article today.
310/ 360. Not so the Labour MP (forgotten her name) was considered not to have been the leak according to the enquiry. The leaker was never found. Perhaps Mr Brown might like to fess up to who it was now?
Have Labour got a mole in CCHQ?
@Sally C:
As in “Mummy, can you change my pants? I gone done an article :(”
That’s it Helen Goodman. Apparently she used her married name at at the treasury and applied to be a Labour Parliamentary candidate under her maiden name (hmmmm?). However, withdrew her candidacy when the mole scandal blew up.
Finally got another candidacy in 2005.
348 I do hope for Jacqui Smith’s sake that she checked her facts very, very carefully before she told the House:
“I have made it clear that neither I nor any other Government minister knew until after the arrest of the honourable member that he, or any other honourable member, was the subject of a police investigation or was to be arrested.”
As a statement, it has the great merit of being unambiguous.
365
Sally, This is the link to the article you mention
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5289436.ece
‘Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, has spent £2,000 of taxpayers’ money on training to boost her confidence and image, it has emerged.
The bill for “executive coaching” covers six training sessions that Ms Smith has received since she became Britain’s first female Home Secretary in June 2007.’
Why are we paying for this?
Have the police actually said why they raided Green’s offices yet? Seeing as we now know that they only arrested him on a charge of “aiding and abetting” (ie. receiving and making public the leaks), and he was not denying this, what extra evidence could searching his office have provided?
They aren’t allowed to go searching for evidence not included on the charge sheet.
312.”The big difference between this and other leaking sagas is that the authorities have gone for the recipient. That takes it into completely new territory and a factor which I don’t think that anybody had thought through.”
I agree Mike, and in light of how politicians like Brown benefited from leaks during the last Tory government, a very unpleasant development indeed. And the fact that the Tories finally got their act and their strategy together so effectively as an opposition since Brown became PM, is it a coincidence?
200/201-Thanks Chris A.
“Fears grow over Brown’s ‘back of the envelope’ m0rtgage”
http://tinyurl.com/5lpjc5
363 interesting, I wonder what she thinks of Galley, Certainly makes Roger, Gabble etc look hilariosly hypocritical(not at exactly a surprise)
[A few days ago I said] - “Another project for someone with some time is to make a model of this and generate some random polls over time where the support for the parties is the same, but the error due to sample size produces variation in the figures from the opinion poll.”
I’ve made a minor start on this, and I have four “opinion polls” based on the same underlying public support for the parties, but “sampled” [n=1000] to simulate one of the ways in which an opinion poll can vary from poll to poll without there being any underlying change in public opinion.
Here they are, with changes on the previous poll in brackets.
Poll #1: Con 40 Lab 32 Lib 20
Poll #2: Con 43(+3) Lab 30(-2) Lib 20(nc)
Poll #3: Con 39(-4) Lab 32(+2) Lib 21(+1)
Poll #4: Con 41(+2) Lab 31(-1) Lib 20(-1)
I’d be impressed if anyone managed to guess the percentages [no decimal places] I used as the truth that these simulated polls sampled.
The variations from poll to poll are quite large I think, and should give people pause for thought.
I’d like to run the stats on a set of 10,000 simulated opinion polls, but I’m worried that my random number generator won’t be up to the job.
376 I’ve tries to link one from the Mail but it got eaten by the moderator -twice.
Thanks guys - re links.
Will the Govt make its mind up about whether its wants the poor to Spend or Save?
See the argument continues to develop, ahem! Good night.
372- sally- that is a bit mean do you not think?
Martin. “Roger you are a F*cking stupid cnut!”
Your dyslexia comes to my rescue again!
Mean to point it out, or mean to point out she needed it. Its questionable that the state should have paid for it.
The mystery minister?
Well Jack Straw’s behaviour’s been something of a mystery. He has been very quiet and always at Jacqui’s side.
Reid’s behaviour was strange today. He towed the Government line yesterday and Cameron’s response made him look like he was about to explode. I thought he came out looking like a stooge. Maybe that was the problem.
369: Strangely enough, Helen Goodman was promoted from backbench to deputy leader of the commons the moment Brown became PM……
tyson. No.
I don’t think she is a very nice lady.
This bit tickled me.
‘Gordon Brown and 13 other Cabinet ministers all managed without any personal training sessions since assuming their current roles.’
Debatable.
261-John O- you are right. I am considering putting poor Tyson into cat psychotherapy to deal with loss of identity and self following introduction of Trotsky. Tyson has frighteningly, and sadly changed personality
Strangely, little Tyson has taken to pooing in his litter tray after a day out. Is this an act of rebellion against his sense of powerlessness?
Tyson looking at himself in the mirror
http://www.paloaltolions.org/Tails/GingerCat.gif
383 Roger That’s quite funny!
387. That will be the Kevin Keegan level of ‘management’?
389 Roger Rumour has it you were suggesting people buy shares in Barclays… Perchance you didnt mean Barclay Hunt?
387- Sally- I do feel sorry for people who get their employees to buy in personal coaching, especially public services.
386 - Helen Goodman is my MP (Bishop Auckland constituency). She was by far the best of the four women on the Labour shortlist (imo), has been doing a good job for the constituency and I’m not at all surprised that she has risen through the ranks. And after all, don’t all Labour MPs from north east constituencies end up on the front bench?
Does anyone else remember the infamous interview/spat Jacqui Smith had with Andrew Neil on This Week a while ago? She really fits in well in a Brown government.
Manchester Congestion Charge looks very much like a NO based on those turnout figures. Highest turnouts are in the areas with the most car driving commuters - Stockport, Tameside, Bury, Trafford.
395 - Certainly the Range Rover garage are doing their bit with huge NO posters!
392 Tyson. She is the Home Sec. Not a primary school head.
She shouldn’t need confidence lessons.
It suggests she may have been over promoted.
394. Nope, can’t remember it. She is singularly humourless though, whenever she get’s skewered she goes even more pompous and acts like the questions is silly, when usually it’s much less silly than the non-answer she’s just given.
For those betting on the next Met Comissioner:
“Who’s for the hot seat?”
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12726045
re 376 my pleasure. yes, it’s all coming apart nicely now. I do wonder if the editors didn’t give it the 5 start treatment yesterday so that they could gloat at leisure. Shame it’ll be buried by Matthews tomorrow.
WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE IS CHILDS PLAY COMPARED TO CANADA
“Prime Minister Stephen Harper has managed to extend the life of his minority Conservative government. Governor-General Michaelle Jean has agreed to his request to prorogue Parliament until Jan. 26″
NOTHING MUCH IN OUR PRESS ABOUT THIS BUT THE THREE OPPOSITION PARTIES, LIBERALS, NFP AND THE QUEBEC BLOC HAVE BEEN COMBINING AND BROUGHT ABOUT A PARLIAMENTARY CRISIS. ULTIMATELY IT COULD INVOLVE THE QUEEN.
The vitriol is pretty strong, Liberals trying to get power by the back door etc.
PARLIAMENT PROROGUED, OH BOY. WHAT IF THE NEXT ELECTION HERE BROUGHT ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE THIS.
My thanks to Ted, Martin Day, ken and Dr. Spyn who responded to my question at 171. I am grateful for your time and interest.
A few of follow up comments:
Martin, good luck with the competition - £35k is worth spending the time and effort to achieve. More so than the Greengate affair, perhaps.
Ken, as always a useful and erudite post. I have delved into the Feldstein-Horioka Paradox, albeit I haven’t been able to give it the time that, perhaps, it deserves. However, my first degree was in mathematics so I was in with a shout of understanding the basic argument. The main issue I have is that they were reaching their conclusions about capital flows in 1980 based on data from the period 1960-1974. In terms of capital mobility, are we not in a different world now? (I also found a 2002 paper from Buiter at the European Bank of Reconstruction which suggests that the Paradox is far less of a puzzle than claimed and from Pomfret in Adeliade in 1997 that seems to say that Feldstein and Horioka were actually talking nonsense because they were measuring only one side of the possible effects).
Dr. Spyn, thanks for the pointer at the Guardian. I couldn’t find the graphs etc on their web-site but my neighbour reads it so I’ll have a word with him in the morning.
What I did find on the Guardian site was an interesting article by Seager on the question of crowding out (he seems to think its a real possibility, but I have no knowledge on how good a pundit he is). Interestingly I also found some other articles by divers writers from back in October in which it was stated that if things are really going to get bad we could see interest rates down to as low as 3.5%, and maybe even down to 2%, - by next summer!
Finally, I found a blog called, UK Bubble, which has all sorts of data presented including the fact that non-investment grade company bonds in the US are currently having to offer 9% annual returns in order to sell, far above the long term trend. I don’t know about you guys but that does suggest to me that crowding out is real on the far side of the Atlantic, and if it is happening there its going to happen here. Just where is the growth in the UK economy going to come from?
I think I’ll move on from trying to teach my boy macro-economics to grooming him for emigration.
Interesting civil liberties question about whether DNA should be kept from those not found guilty. A difficult one. I think on balance either none should be kept or all should be otherwise those found guilty will have an added penalty even after their sentence has been served.
re 379 Sally that’s because in your depravity and filthiness you’ve probably included the “M” word
401
Canada is the Belgium of the Americas
No-one gives flying t0ss
397- sally- good post. I tend to agree. It doesn’t really inspire confidence that the highest profile politicians require people coaching them, but I just think it is a bit nit picky to point it out. And they will find it terribly embarrassing.
re I imagine the GG is applying the same conventions as HMQ would do here, although a 6 week prorogation to protect a government only 2 months in office is I imagine a bit of a novelty.
[401] - I was surprised to hear that it was the Governor-General who had the power to decide whether the Canadian Parliament sat or not. I think that’s basically up to the Speaker at Westminster?
re 403 not at all if you commit a crime then you expect a loss of rights and privacy. The DNA database seems a proportionate response to this.
405, Jon C, Oh yes they do if it involves the Queen.
Flippant remarks like yours ignore that this sort of situation could happen here after the next election.
400-Chris A-”“yes, it’s all coming apart nicely now”
Like most of Brown’s plans. And he never learns…
378. I’ve investigated this in some depth, and ran a similar test program on here a few weeks ago.
I’ll go for
Con 40.75
Lab 31.25
LD 20.25
Bottom line is, about 80% of the time the average is closer to the truth than any single poll, and quite often it will beat all in a particular batch such as yours.
403 How do you come to such weird conclusions. If you are found guilty of a crime then it is fair enough to keep DNA both as an extra penalty and a deterrant. Most murderers don’t start by murdering, they start by robbery or arson. These are the very people that a dna database should act as a deterrant on. Indeed I am with David Davis who says if you have a criminal history then you should also be on the database.
However if you have not been convicted of a crime then there is no sensible reason why you should be on the database.
411 the problem is the press never learn.
New Smitshson Law???????. Any poll posted on Guido’s comments is bound to be a load of tosh.. I have checked ICM site and there is nothing on it….
re 408 No. The right of prorogation is entirely the Queen’s (on the advice of the PM of course). Lat week’s prorogation for instance was declared by royal warrant.
A Commission was also read for proroguing the present Parliament, and the Lord President said:
“My Lords and Members of the House of Commons: by virtue of Her Majesty’s Commission, which has now been read, we do in Her Majesty’s name, and in obedience to Her Majesty’s commands, prorogue this Parliament to Wednesday the Third day of December to be then here holden, and this Parliament is accordingly prorogued to Wednesday, the Third day of December.”
409- moreover if you get found out for committing a crime. How many crimes have we all committed and not been found out?
If every criminal gets their DNA taken then shouldn’t we all do it? Who of us here has never stolen anything, never smoked anything we shouldn’t, never assaulted anyone we shouldn’t (family fights?), never sped, never talked on their mobile while driving, never put the odd mile on a claim, never taken the odd towel from a hotel.
We are all criminals. A few get caught convicted and DNA’d. The rest of us are just sanctimonious.
More weirdness in the ongoing MN senate recount. Given the lawyers on hand it looks more and more like this could be challenged, I don’t know if there’s precedent for a runoff but it might need it.
Missing ballots in the 3rd ward of Minneapolis.
“1,047 voters signed in on the roster.
932 additional voters registered in person on Election Day.
35 absentee ballots were accepted in this precinct by the city.
15 absentee ballots were accepted in this precinct by the county.
TOTAL: 2,029 voters cast legal ballots (2,028 votes are recorded on the machine tape).
TODAY: 1,896 ballots were included in the recount.
That is, a total of 2,029 voters either signed in on the registered voter roster in this precinct, registered in person on Election Day (Minnesota is one of the few states that allows you to do this), or sent in absentee ballots. This closely matches the 2,028 votes recorded in the precinct’s November 4 count, but does not so closely match the 1,896 ballots that were identified in the recount today.
It looks more likely than not that 133 ballots have in fact gone missing; I have no idea what happens if they cannot be found.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/missing-ballots-in-minneapolis.html
414-
They usually learn on the next day. But then they already gave what Brown wanted: the headlines
401. The Governor-General follows Westminster precedents, or makes new ones as the case may be, so this is all highly relevant to us.
Has Harper had the equivalent of a Canadian “Queen’s Speech” passed by the House yet? If so, he is entitled to a dissolution if defeated by the forces now arrayed against him.
If not, he is not entitled to a dissolution, but the coalition would be entitled to one the moment they took office.
The Economist’s (quite balanced) view on Greengate
“One thing is clear. If, as it seems, the police failed to point out to the House of Commons serjeant at arms, when they applied for permission to search a parliamentary office, that she had the right to refuse consent and demand a warrant, they broke the law. That Jill Pay and the speaker of the house, Michael Martin, were remiss not to think of this themselves goes without saying. On December 3rd, holding his statement with shaking hands, Mr Martin assured the House of Commons that it would not happen again. But that is not enough. Change is overdue; and there is nothing like a scandal to incite it.
Of course MPs must not be above the law. At times, though, they must sail close to it in seeking to challenge the executive, whether king or Home Office. So they are granted certain privileges, hallowed by long observance but ill-defined. Uncertainty has contributed to the current problem.
It is time to draw some firm boundaries, in such a way that MPs are cut the slack they need to do their job. Police powers over them must be strictly defined; legal ambiguity about when they can use information from a mole and when they are held to be aiding misconduct must be removed. The bias should be towards greater openness and freedom. A decade ago a review of parliamentary privileges urged that they be clarified. That must now happen, and quickly.”
re 420 yes they have
19 November 2008
Today, Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean, Governor General of Canada, delivered the Government’s Speech from the Throne to open Canada’s 40th Parliament.
Quite comically if you look at the video she opened the speech upside down.
It would seem then that the row broke out during the debate on the speech
417 So in Tyson world we are all guilty until proven innocent. You sound like Gabble. serious convicted criminals should have DNA taken, not minor offenders or those never convicted or even charged.
99 - I agree - various people where I work are up in arms about Labours authoritarianism, one guy who I have never heard talk about anything serious (outside of work topics obviously!) was parrticularly scathing and referred to the police as being an arm of the Labour party.
417. What a ridiculous post.
422. Well, in that case Harper is entitled to a dissolution, if he wants one. He could just hand the reigns to the coalition though.
402. HurstLlama. Actually more recent studies continue to find evidence of the FH paradox, albeit declining over time. Of course, the Pomfret criticism (made better and in greater detail in other papers) is that FH doesnt preclude capital mobility. But, that the FH paradox exists suggests that capital mobility is not perfect.
425 re 417
Tyson, they’ll soon be taking the DNA of your dog to make sure it doesnt cr*p on the footpath or on the cricket square.
“Printing money” gets a new “sounds very complicated” makeover on newsnight.
Is now to be called “quantitative easing”
There’s a case, although I wouldn’t care to make it unless we had governments (of either large party) a little more likely to be in favour of working for the interests of citizens instead of being devoted to screwing them at every opportunity, of creating a complete DNA database of everyone - when at least it would be become apparent when a conviction is based on DNA just how many other innocent people could, in theory, be included as suspects in earlier crimes.
429
Are they suggesting doing it? Barber did it in 1973??? and what a disaster it was. Its frightening if they are IMHO as it devalues everyones money.
423 and 425- honestly it is like banging one’s head against a wall!
The point I am trying to make is that any one of us could end up on the DNA register for any spurious reason, wrongly charged, silly mistake, youthful miscalculation, wrong place wrong time- that is why this register is hitting 10% + of the population and rising.
Either you have this register for everyone or for no one, and do not put in spurious/ ad hoc criteria like charged or convicted of a criminal offence because that could be you or your family my friend at any time. And if you are wrongly put on it, then you are tarred with the black brush.
Anyway, after being back on the pulpit twice tonight am off to bed.
403 Roger - Interesting post, but one which I find hard to understand.
“I think on balance either none should be kept or all should be otherwise those found guilty will have an added penalty even after their sentence has been served.”
This is saying that having your DNA on the register is a ‘penalty’. If that is the case, then that is surely an absolutely cast-iron argument against retaining the DNA of innocent people.
However, I don’t see it like that. I start from the premise that it is an intrusion of civil liberties for the DNA of innocent people to be kept (I’m not talking about people properly convicted of serious crimes). It is an intrusion because it could be used to track the actions of people accused of no crime.
Such an intrusion might be justifiable; for example, if by retaining DNA records of a large proportion of the population, we could catch (and hence deter) the perpetrators of substantial numbers of rapists, murderers, and other serious criminals, we as a society might consider that the intrusion on our civil liberties was justified by the corresponding reduction in very serious crimes.
The big problem with the way the government has approached this is that we haven’t had that debate. It is building up a national DNA database by stealth. That is unacceptable.
428- MTF- made me laugh, and on a happier note am going to bed. Doubtless Trotsky has already found her way there first!
433 oops, delete ‘the perpetrators of’ in the penultimate paragraph.
429. Gordon Brown’s plan to tackle inequality by making us all poorer.
Liam Byrne must know lots of bobbies.
From his website;
‘Liam was Minister of State for Borders and Immigration at HM Treasury and the Home Office, where he created the new UK Border Agency, designed the points system to control migration, doubled the immigration policing budget, legislated for compulsory ID cards for foreign nationals and created the concept of ‘earned citizenship’ for newcomers.
Liam was made Minister of State for Police and Counter-Terrorism in May 2006 before the Home Secretary asked him to lead the re-organisation of the immigration system and the Home Office.’
436 Convenient way to extinguish all that debt, too.
431. There is a case for it, in a certain set of restrictive circumstances. E.g. when interest rates fall to close to zero and yet money supply growth continues to be very weak or even negative - due for example to a malfunctioning banking sector. In such a case, it could be the only means to prevent what Fed chief Bernanke once called ‘corrosive deflation’.
In recent weeks, the US has begun to go down this route. Do the circumstances justify it? Certainly some of the symptoms were there, especially the fact that massive liquidity injections were coexisting with a shrinkage of the overall money supply - a collapse of the so-called money multiplier.
Will it happen here? Hmmmm….
Which countries in the world are not currently in recession?
Serious question.
Malcolm
440 Lebanon, according to Newsnight
441-Brazil too.
Monaco.
Dont think Gordo won the war of the front pages so far….
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx#5025
Poland, and the rest of the 2004 EU states
445 beat me to it!
444 Mandy / Geoff Hoon clip on Daily Politics great. Go Brillo.
As a last resort, if Britain gets stuck in a deflationary spiral, and interests rates have been cut to zero and made no difference, the printing of money becomes an option of last resort.
Of course, ‘printing money’ is something of a misnomer, since the Government doesn’t really need to print actual banknotes to increase the money supply.
440 Wrong question Malc. Which European country is facing the worst recession and has totally failed to prepare for it. Its an easy question to answer……….
re 440 Canada and Australia for a start. Don’t believe everything that Brown and Gabble tells you.
“Mr Speaker, all other countries…” what utter tosh.
Malta.
China, India.
Switzerland.
I don’t think Norway is in recession yet.
440 Big ones? China and India, slower growth but not recession, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa and lots of smaller developing economies (is Australia or is it just slower growth there?)
448 Martin, How do they do it without printing the wonga svp
“What Roger fails to mention is that the Ponting Affair resulted in Conservative Government amending the OSA and removing all non National Security considerations from it. Hence the police having to dig up some comatose law most used in the 18th Century to do anything about this Cabinet Office complaint”
— what the poster here fails to comprehend is that the circumstances where someone can be prosecuted under the official secrets act for leaking have - a has been widely pointed out elsewhere - been severely curtailed.
It is extremely doubtful if this guy would be, could be, prosecuted under the OSA in this case and even more unlikely that he would be convicted if he was.
This might be a useful site
re 420 Rod it might be more relevant than you think. From Harper’s speech to the nation “Canada’s government cannot enter into a power sharing agreement with a separatist party..”
Precedence against a Tory/SNP coalition perhaps?
@453:
The Bank of England can buy and sell gilts in the open market as a way of easing and tightening the money supply.
Looking at the Independent front page does make me realise just how economically illiterate the press are.
It takes 9 months or so for falls in interest rates to feed through to economic performance. Bank stabilisation was just that, stabilising banks, and now they need to get their balance sheets in order to get back to profitability, it was never about recreating the free credit of 2007 (however much Gordon likes to believe there were no structural problems in the UK but all the fault of the US).
The recession is here, it will worsen even under the Governments very optimistic forecasts, whatever measures we take now but if the Government stops panicking and lets the measures it and the BoE have already taken work through then it could make better sense in 6 months or so about what additional measures are required if any. Its not 1929 again, its a different set of problems in a very different set of economies.
Front pages
#429:
Quantitative easing refers to the actions by Central Banks that create liquidity in the economy by printing money. This is usually used by central banks after they fail to inject liquidity in the economy by lowering interest rates. Bank of Japan used this quite a bit to fight deflation and now the Fed seems to be using it too.
http://www.onemint.com/2008/11/26/what-is-quantitative-easing/
also
blogs on http://ftalphaville.ft.com/
458. I agree. They need to stop and think, as there is not a lot of ammo left. Measure twice, cut once. Not policy on the hoof.
426. From what I’ve been reading over the last few days Canadian constitutional experts would say that Rod is wrong - the consensus seems to be that if Harper loses a confidence vote, and then the three opposition parties confirm their intention to maintain the stability of the new coalition for a decent period (I think the Bloc Québécois are committed to eighteen months) the Governor-General would have little choice but to refuse a request for dissolution, and to appoint the opposition leader as PM. The key consideration seems to be the short period of time that has passed since the last election - there is no precedent for a dissolution so quickly.
456. I doubt if the Scottish Tories will be slaves to events in Canada, but there was never any prospect of a coalition in any case. Issue-by-issue co-operation is a different matter.
Printing money (lets call it by its real name): Japan can do it as they are disciplined. Can you image the Brown Bunglers doing it carefully enough so as not to destroy the currency for a generation or more.
Japan on one hand, Weimar on the other. Which will Brown follow?
He will have to do something as the falling pound ( the decline continues) and low interest rates will make borrowing more difficult as one is likely to continue and the other to give too low a return for the risk in a competitive Us/UK debtor spree.
So get the presses rolling and economic armageddon moving while the real problem, the willingness and ability of lenders to lend is further weakened by savers being punished.
A whole heap of clever economic jargon cannot hide the fact that the government are putting us in hock for generations with a borrowing binge and printing money making it ever more difficult to get out. Ensuring lower living standards for years.
Look at the most successful and stable post war economies and ask what are they doing and what have they always done. Sound money. That is what they always strive for and it has done them good service.
462. The problem is that to refuse a dissolution risks a re-run of the King-Byng affair of the 1920s.
What if the coalition [and it isn't a majoritarian coalition anyhow, since Bloc will not be a formal member] falls apart? The Governor General would then be granting Dion with 77 seats what [i.e. a dissolution] she refused Harper with 143 seats.
Perhaps the prorogation is a tactic by Harper to buy time, so that a dissolution in the new year is more in keeping with the Lascelles principles. It’s a very grey area, but imho, the G-C would be unwise to refuse a dissolution.
Logic dictates that if a coalition is a real possibility, that coalition should be endorsed at the polls [or not], and the way to achieve that is by granting Harper a dissolution.
Sounds like Canada is heading for constitutional crisis.
464. “Sounds like Canada is heading for constitutional crisis.”
It’s already there, Rod. The Governor-General didn’t have to accept the request to prorogue, and the fact that she’s done so is hugely controversial. She was appointed by the previous Liberal government, and has been accused of having had ’separatist leanings’ in the past, so it looks a little like she’s trying to burnish her reputation as an impartial official.
Also, I’d agree with you that the prorogation is a tactic to buy time, but the intention seems to be not to bolster the case for dissolution, but instead to use that time to whip up public protest, in the hope that the proposed coalition will simply fall apart. Whether that will work or not is anyone’s guess.
462. It might be different if the Tories had suffered a rebuff at the previous election, say losing their majority, but remaining largest party. An alternative coalition could plausibly argue it was in a stronger position…
But Harper increased his votes and seats at the election! He has in my view an unassailable right to a dissolution, if defeated on a vote of confidence, provided he first got a vote of confidence by the passing of his Queen’s Speech - which you say he did.
If Harper thinks that the G-G won’t grant him a dissolution, he should exercise the nuclear option, by advising HM Queen to dismiss the G-G - advice she would be constitutionally obliged to take…
He surely won’t repeat Gough Whitlam’s error?
466- Based on news reports today from several sources, it looks like the proposed coalition deal is already falling apart by virtue of the unwillingness of several Liberal MP’s to go along. The prorogation tactic seems to have served nicely to give MP’s a chance to twist in the wind as they face constituents wondering how they can govern side by side with the separatists. It doesn’t look like they feel it is worth all this merely to sideline Harper.
467. I think the crucial point is that the alternative government has a clear majority in parliament. Although the Bloc will not be a formal part of the coalition, they have formally stated in writing (in a letter addressed to the Governor-General) that they will support the new government until June 2010. As I understand it, the prime function of the monarch or Governor-General is to appoint a Prime Minister who commands a parliamentary majority, so in the highly unusual situation that the incumbent Prime Minister wants a dissolution, but there is an alternative PM waiting in the wings who has clearly demonstrated that he would command a majority, she is presented with a clear dilemma. I’m not sure historical precedent provides an unambiguous answer one way or the other.
I’ll defer to your knowledge about the government’s absolute power to effectively dismiss the Governor-General, but in terms of practical politics it would be impossible for Harper to do that (especially now she’s just saved his skin).
By the way, I don’t know for a fact that the Queen’s Speech was passed by a vote (it seems to be called the ’speech from the throne’ over there), but I presume it was. The flashpoint came later with the Finance Minister’s budget, which apparently was extremely belligerent and partisan.
468. I wouldn’t get too excited yet, S&S. Canada is more like Britain than the US in terms of party discipline, so if the majority of the Liberals want to continue (as appears to be the case for the time being) any dissenters would presumably have to come back on board or lose the party whip. There doesn’t seem to be all that many of them so far in any case.
470- The underlying reason for the uneasiness on the part of several Liberal MP’s appears to be the extent to which public opinion is swinging against the proposed coalition parties and therefore nervousness about their political futures should they soldier on. Here are some new polling numbers:
Ipsos:
Conservative 46%
Liberal 23%
NDP 13%
37% for the Coalition, 60% opposed.
EKOS:
Conservative 44%
Liberal 24.1%
NDP 14.1%
Harper 47% vs. Coalition 34% on who’s better to handle the economy (only 53% of NDP supporters went with the Coalition).
Tories up by over 21 points in Ontario.
56% for either prorogation or an election vs. 28% for the Coalition.
The party standing numbers show a significant spike in favor of the Tories and would result in a Conservative majority were a new election to be called.
471. From what I gather, though, support for the coalition is solid in Quebec, and unless the Tories can make up some ground there, winning an outright majority will be hard.
But if the coalition is formed, of course, it wouldn’t have to face an election until at least 2010 - so the judgement of the electorate would be based on the coalition in office, not the perception now. So for the Liberals it’s essentially a game of brinkmanship centred on the calculation of whether the Governor-General would appoint Dion as PM or dissolve parliament - but with potentially very high rewards if they hold their nerve. By the way, who are these ’several’ Liberal MPs you keep referring to? I’ve found repeated reference to a couple of mavericks, but not any others.
Witan 463/Mike S. I entirely agree but suspect Brown will soon approve of the Bank of England “effectively ” printing money to lend to the Government so it can fund the rapidly increasing borrowing requirement. In this scenario Brown is likely to call an early GE and it will be up to the Opposition i.e. not just the Tories but the LD’s to demonstate the massive problems ahead if such a policy is advanced. This I believe will be a real test of the effectiveness of the opposition parties if we are to avoid a Doomsday scenario.
Mike I suggest that we start meaningfully discussing this issue now rather than responding too late. I think this issue will have a dominating influence on UK politics.
“Quite often it is not the initial act that causes the problem for government but the following cover-up. Could that happen here?”
I think this question should also be thought about in the context of the Tories. Are we so very sure that official secrets were not disclosed. Since when is it the opposition that determines what is a “state” secret or not - surely that remains the role of the state (Government) and the “loyal” civil service…
I would bet that it is the Tories that come out worse in the end. Archer, Aitken anyone? These things always start with a denial of wrong doing. It is the denial that is the problem in the end.