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Gord wins the headline war

December 4th, 2008

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338 comments to “Gord wins the headline war”

1st
by will.b December 4th, 2008 at 12:35 am
I think these games to get the first comment just show the lack of intellegence of the poster.
by will.b December 4th, 2008 at 12:36 am
repost: 654. When it’s that close you can ascribe it to a lot of little things. I can at least say that my vote was partially impacted by the size of Huhne’s majority, and I know at least three others similarly considered it an important point. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

I’ll repeat my tip on Carmichael though, I think he can go far. At least in the Lib Dems.
by corporeal December 4th, 2008 at 12:40 am
That’s about the size of it Mike.
A desperate attempt to seize a headline that would trump the Green debacle.
He has form with this - remember the 10p tax budget? - and I suspect this may similarly backfire when the policy is revealed to be ill-thought out and helping precious few people.
Incidentally, it will be interesting to see how the Mail, Telegraph - as pro-royal papers - treat the snub to Her Maj, in terms of the ‘mortgage rescue plan’ being kept for our global saviour to regale the nation with personally.
by Tholster December 4th, 2008 at 12:41 am
“Gord wins the headline war”

Hmmm, almost too good to be true? Looking at those very targeted and over hyped headlines, I am not so sure he has. He will be happy though, it was a short term political tactic to grab today’s headlines.
by ChristinaD December 4th, 2008 at 12:42 am
It’ll all end in tears. Brown’s initiatives always flatter to deceive. It’s disappointing that the papers have been taken in again, but the scales when they fall away will lead to them becoming all the more bitter.
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 12:43 am
I only caught about 15 minutes of Michael Howard and Ken Clarke and others pulling Gordon apart, but I suspect the print media see this as heat rather than light. Good telly but difficult to replicate in print and no new information. Hence the front pages
by Paul Norton December 4th, 2008 at 12:46 am
But the Sun leader is bad for Mr Martin. Fresh up now. Sorry it’s a bit later than usual.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
by David Roe December 4th, 2008 at 12:46 am
I see mixed messages, not “Well done, Gordon!”

Mandleson wants us to join the Euro? Let’s see G try that and see if he gets friendly headlines!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 12:47 am
“The future active state”
by Peter Mandelson

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/04/peter-mandelson-economic-globalisation-markets
by Me December 4th, 2008 at 12:57 am
Right, that’s it, I’m cancelling the mortgage direct debit tomorrow. Gordon can pick up the tab. I never took any of that “legally binding contract” co*k seriously anyway.
by TonyB December 4th, 2008 at 12:59 am
I guess “The future tax-spend-and-spy state” didn’t sound as catchy…
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 12:59 am
Anything that helps individuals in the recession is helpful and Brown has grabbed short term headlines over it.

However, there are limits to who this will actually help and it seems to be the case that as with all brown’s scheme the electorate will need to jump through hoops to qualify and the chances are that there will be many who will reading these headlines think they were safe and find out they are not (I know I am not for a start).

Unfortunately, Brown relies on the shallow analysis of the media in the early days to grab headlines as the details become apparent the media then cover themselves with mock outrage when they realise the expectations they created initially are overblown and they then hit back at the grandiose statements made by the PM in the first place. That is exactly what happened over the 10p Tax Cut and this has all the signs of doing the same. It does not cover the real sharks (the sub-prime lenders) in the mortgage market and that is where the poorer mortgage holders most likely have their mortgages. I can see plenty of stories of woe in the longer-term.

As for Greengate we have the Jackie Smith statement the tomorrow, the debate on Monday, the interim police review, the full police review, the enquiry by the great and the good in Parliament (and the shenanegans of who is selected for that) and thats even before any consideration as to whether the police do or do not charge Mr Galley and/or Damian Green or whether the Speaker etc. survive.

Brown may have saved himself today but he will need a whole warren of rabbits to get himself out of this one!
by jsfl December 4th, 2008 at 1:03 am
As good as they get, and the second Sun editorial is mildly favourable too, though the Murdoch papers have been moving right at a rate of knots recently and I think have made a strategic decision to go Tory unless something drastic happens. That said, the Tories have IMO shunted themselves up a side-alley with the Green thing, reinforcing the impression that they don’t have much to say on economic issues.

I missed most of the fun today, being tied up in a meeting with IT managers and strategists. Not much political to report, but they thought the recession will be long and hard, they were unenthused by politicians generally, thought Mandelson was a positive exception as genuinely open to business concerns.

Suspect attendance will be pretty light for the next few days - a whole string of one-line whips: saw lots of MPs on both sides heading off with bulky bags in the evening.
by Nick Palmer MP December 4th, 2008 at 1:03 am
“Peter Mandelson’s shameless intervention may backfire”

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_hughes/blog/2008/12/03/peter_mandelsons_shameless_intervention_may_backfire
by Me December 4th, 2008 at 1:05 am
3 “I think he can go far. At least in the Lib Dems.”

That is like saying he can go far - in the Andorran Army…..
by Marquee Mark December 4th, 2008 at 1:06 am
After the intial day of headlines, I wonder how this will play out?

It’s not just that fewer people will qualify than the headlines suggest.

Only 1.5% of people are in significant arrears with their mortgages. That’s only a tiny number in terms of the whole electorate. I guess many more people may initially feel more secure but will they once today’s headlines fade from the memory and reports continue in the media of high numbers of repossessions?

There were also a lot of very critical mesages read out on Radio 5 Live - all along the lines of why should I, the taxpayer, pay other people’s mortgages.
by Mike L December 4th, 2008 at 1:09 am
“Jeremy Clarkson is right:
Tory leader David Cameron is not ready to be Prime Minister”

http://tinyurl.com/69c8os
by Gabble December 4th, 2008 at 1:10 am
17 It might have taken Jeramy Clarkson till he’s 47,48 years old,but he has talked sense at last-and I immediately state I do NOT have a grudge personally aginst David Cameron. I do take on board up-thread that blue-collar southerners with mortgages (my good self being one of them) are sitting pretty on the BoE/mortgare rate cuts,and fingers crossed,more to come at 12.00 today.Isurmise the light legoslative programme of todays Queens Speech is in anticipation of a ‘window of opportunity’ arising in spring 2009;we’ll see
by Patrick (West Ham fan who will probably vote Labour next time) December 4th, 2008 at 1:18 am
Democrat Al Franken is now leading the Minnesota Senate recount by 2,623 votes. But it could still be close as Counties still to report are heavily Republican.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
by Mike L December 4th, 2008 at 1:19 am
17 - LOL. Good old Kevin and The Mirror. Labour’s last friend.
by David Roe December 4th, 2008 at 1:20 am
7 Well worth waiting for David. Did anyone else sense that there was a distinct Nicolae Ceausescu moment for Speaker Martin when audible degrees of consternation were heard from MPs during his speech, causing him to look up from his prepared script, both in stark amazement and seemingly not a little fear?
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:22 am
15. That’s harsh. Especially given that NOM is looking fairly likely at this point in time.
by corporeal December 4th, 2008 at 1:25 am
20 With friends like that ……
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:25 am
Well, Gordon may have the morning headlines, but Greengate has a long time to run as has the recession.

The thing that is begining to concern me is that we are shoring up things that may well need to be corrected. I understand why, I just hope it is not a horrible mistake.

Just in case any one missed it, from my reading of misconduct in public office Chris Galley has not committed the crime, so should not have been arrested, and accordingly Damian Green could not have possibly conspired in a crime that was not committed.

The key element is in the detail (see links on my blog) but to make out that a crime has been committed there has to be an element of damage to the public interest and no reasonable excuse for the action when in fact the reverse was obviously the case from the complaint with no need to investigate.

More here.
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Re 22, Corporeal. “15. That’s harsh. Especially given that NOM is looking fairly likely at this point in time.”

Is it?

You jest surely sir. We are either in slim Labour Majority or a good conservative one, depending on what poll you read. I can’t see a middle ground.
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 1:28 am
On that note I am off to bed..
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 1:29 am
21 - I thought Mr Martin sounded very contrite. But it shouldn’t save him. I said on the day this broke he must resign. I now think he must resign and so should the Serjeant at arms.
by David Roe December 4th, 2008 at 1:30 am
3 - I have no idea what you were voting on (or not) re Huhne - but Carmichael is going nowhere (other than the northern isles) which ought to be enough for anyone …
by Dan December 4th, 2008 at 1:36 am
27 David - “must” and “will” are two very different words.
Do I feel another bet with you coming on here. How about £20 at even money - you say he resigns by say 31 January 2009, I say he doesn’t.
Is it a deal?
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:37 am
9 I have read that article twice and have no idea what he is on about! I think the first comment “Buzzword bingo, anyone?” is absolutely perfect.
by C December 4th, 2008 at 1:37 am
29 Come on David - I’ll have to hurry you, as Dermot Murnaghan might have said to you when you appeared on “Eggheads” - I’m waiting to go to bed!
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:46 am
25. “You jest surely sir. We are either in slim Labour Majority or a good conservative one, depending on what poll you read. I can’t see a middle ground.”

That’s an odd statement. If polls are predicting wildly different outcomes, the possibility of the truth lying somewhere between the two extremes is obvious. And, as we were discussing the other night, the range of results that would produce a hung parliament is fairly broad.
by Red Meteor December 4th, 2008 at 1:48 am
I see the weird and unpredictable night time Beeb Website editor is at it again. He has managed to remove the mortgage help story completely. Last night it was fake boobs, tonight it is coke ads.
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 1:50 am
33 Red, I fear Benedict has gone to bed, but of course you are correct. There will be a NOM outcome if either Labour or the Tories win between 255-325 seats, a very likely scenario given their respective starting positions (a good value bet too in my opinion at 2.5-1 or better).
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:53 am
33. I like their style, keepss things fresh and interesting. And let’s be honest what really is more interesting, banking or large numbers of fake boobs?
by corporeal December 4th, 2008 at 1:54 am
35 You’re right there, corporeal, although I’m not so sure about the coke ads (I asume Oracle is referring to the iconic beverage).
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 1:59 am
36. Wrong actually. Anti-cocaine adverts involving a dog called pablo.
by corporeal December 4th, 2008 at 2:00 am
Oh well, it looks like David is going to miss out on my generous offer, which I’m going to have to close, with the news, rumours, etc changing every day.
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 2:02 am
29 - No. I mean I am demanding he resign. I think he’s too ignoble to do the decent thing.
by David Roe December 4th, 2008 at 2:03 am
39 Oh well, it was worth a try!

Goodnight all.
by Peter from Putney December 4th, 2008 at 2:07 am
re 33 to say “If polls are predicting wildly different outcomes, the possibility of the truth lying somewhere between the two extremes is obvious” might seem a sound proposition but is not one that has been proven against actual results.

Generally the most accurate poll has not been the one in the middle or the average but the one at the extreme showing Labour in the least favourable position.
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 2:45 am
42. But in the case of the difference between ICM/Mori and ComRes, there’s an unusually striking divergence of trend as well as a divergence in the raw figures. That points to at least the possibility that the polls were at either extreme of their respective margins of error, in which case it’s not unreasonable to suggest the true position might be somewhere between the two.

Also, as the pollsters fine-tune their methodology (like Mori did a few months ago) your golden rule will presumably prove less reliable over time.

But of course the main point I was making in my post is that on the basis of the evidence we currently have we can’t rule out a hung parliament - on the contrary, in fact, it looks like quite a plausible outcome at this stage.
by Red Meteor December 4th, 2008 at 3:47 am
It’s difficult to read the small print, because it simply isn’t there yet.

The Independent, for example, reports “People with a mortgage of up to £400,000 and savings of less than about £16,000 will be able to defer interest payments on their mortgages for up to two years if they suffer a significant loss of income such as losing a job or overtime payments during the downturn.” , but “Existing help with mortgages is targeted at jobless people who have a mortgage of up to £200,000.”

If I have a mortgage of £425,000, do I qualify on the first £400,000 or on none of it?

If I lose my job during the “downturn” (presumably he means recession) by being fired for incompetence, do I qualify?

When does the “downturn” actually end?

“savings of less than about £16,000″. - what exactly does that mean?

This has all the hallmarks of the 10p tax fiasco. Clever numbers designed to wrong foot the opposition parties for ten minutes but delivering very little to very few.
by mirthios December 4th, 2008 at 4:57 am
44 - On Radio 5 just this evening Margaret Beckett suggested 9,000 families might benefit.

Sounds like a crappy waste of time to me based on that number.

And what about if I lose my job? Am I going to get government help covering my rent? Why should homeowners get off with not paying their housing costs while renters get made homeless?
by David Roe December 4th, 2008 at 5:02 am
I wonder what Her Majesty thinks about her own Queen’s Speech being overshadowed and trumped by Brown’s own announcement in the Commons?

He is truly one of the most political, partisan and short-termist PMs ever.

It might prove to be a good idea, but of course we will only know for sure when the small print is available.

All recent events point to an early election. The arrest of Green and this sort of announcement is exactly the sort of thing Labour need to unsettle the Conservatives and shore up their own core vote.
by Millsy December 4th, 2008 at 5:15 am
45 - presumably you can claim housing Benefit.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 6:34 am
From BBC News:

The Conservatives are demanding more details about the government’s plan to help people in danger of having their homes repossessed.

The housing minister, Margaret Beckett, has estimated around 9,000 homeowners would benefit from the scheme.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders estimates there could be 75,000 repossessions next year.

Under the government’s plan, people could defer part of their mortgage interest payments for up to two years.

Conservative front bencher Dominic Grieve said: “The difficulty with the government’s proposals is that it’s very difficult to know how many people are going to be benefiting.

“Until we can get clarity we can’t really come out and say “this is wonderful,” because at the moment, quite frankly, we can’t tell.”

Is this a Bill the government are proposing? Is it going to wait until the Budget? If not, why wasn’t it announced in the PBR?
by Millsy December 4th, 2008 at 6:39 am
I knew it. The moment Jesus Brown opened his mouth about the mortgage plan, the press would write about almost nothing else today.

Facts -
1 Brown is beyond caring whether his ‘plans’ will work or whether they’ll even be carried out.

2 Brown can announce any sort of ‘plan’ he likes in the full knowledge that the press and much of the public will be suckered by it, at least in the short term.

3 Brown’s plans are accompanied by him bellowing out that the opposition either refused to agree to his plan or would like the exact opposite to happen. Again, this is a tactic that has proved very successful with some voters.

I think Jesus Brown is desperate to win a 2009 election and will say anything to give himself a decent edge in the polls. His next biggie will be spectacular. Every voter to get ten grand from the bottomless pit that is Jesus Brown’s personal money supply? Fortunately for us, the PM would have to eventually be sectioned by the time his ‘plans’ were this insane.
by montyheath December 4th, 2008 at 6:41 am
No Gord wins the headline battle. It will be back on Green tomorrow. After that, like with the 10p tax, it this temporary victory will unravel and he’ll be in an even worse position than he started.

O.T. Does anybody have any recommendations for a Spreadfair refugee? My money should arrive on Friday since it was traveling by a 3 day BACS transfer. I’m taking profit at this point but will still have a bit left over that I can afford to loose on another market, especially if I end up making as much as I did on Spreadfair!
by Chris Strange December 4th, 2008 at 6:43 am
50 - I was going to suggest betting on the next election date but I can’t seem to find it.
by Millsy December 4th, 2008 at 6:49 am
51 - sorry about the posting diarrohea, found the market and you can still get 5/4 on a 2009 election with Ladbrokes (4/7 for 2010).
by Millsy December 4th, 2008 at 6:57 am
9 - I think people in this country will change their mind on joining the Euro if sterling continues to fall. I’ve heard lots of people saying they think we should.
by Stonch - he runs a pub and writes a blog about beer December 4th, 2008 at 6:59 am
52. I’m not convinced that that is value since I still think that in the end it will be 2010. Gordon Brown might trying to set himself up for an early 2009 snap election, but since he bottled it when be had a huge poll lead I think that he will do so again. Either it won’t be big enough like during his first bounce, since he will want a bigger victory than Blair, or he will believe his own publicity about being the saviour of the world and think that with the public finally realising this by waiting his victory will be even bigger. I also suspect that his current desperation is rather less to do with some longer term strategy than with simply getting the hated Tories out of next days headlines by any means possible.
by Chris Strange December 4th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Having thought about it while walking the dog, the headlines really should read
Gordon pretends to bail out his rich friends with your money yet again

But, if you’ve got a mortgage between £200,000 and £400,000, you are likely to be a higher rate taxpayer, earning between £50,000 and £100,000 a year.

And the chances are that you will have “savings” - including your redundancy package and pension pot - of more than £16,000, so tough luck.

And you must be downsized in the downturn before the beginning of the third quarter of 2009, when Alistair assures us the downturn will upturn again.

In fact, this rescue plan is probably designed to assist all those Labour MPs who lose their seats in a June 2009 election. Balls?
by mirthios December 4th, 2008 at 7:16 am
Oh dear, can it be true that theres a disconnect betweeen the tory hive mind and what people think outside?

Quick.

PUT MORE LIPSTICK ON A PIG!
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Just popped in before catching the train (so apologies if someone posted this already).

I see Harman will not offer the speaker her support, thats not going to help bury this story
by Floater December 4th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Hopefull it will help bury Harman.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Just heard Stephen Pound on R4’s Today.

He’s still peddling this line that arrests, searches without warrants etc are all fine as “We don’t know what might be yet be leaked”.

Labour MPs become ever more disgraceful on this affair as the days pass.

What ‘might’ happen! The is ‘Minority Report’ territory.

The ‘thought crime’ is now well and truly established in the Labour lexicon.
by GeoffH December 4th, 2008 at 7:45 am
14 But Nick, wouldn’t it be better if we had a properly thought out and costed proposal, with all the details? It’s hard not to give this a guarded welcome, although a certain amount of cynicism is possible on the grounds of how many people it will actually help, and whether it might make things worse for some people.

You could say that Labour has shunted itself up a side alley by pretending that the recession is not its fault but can somehow be magically made not to happen, and has nothing to say on vital issues of civil liberties, freedom and democracy.

Having said that, it does look like a good day politically for Labour and the mortgage announcement was a classic rabbit out of a hat. However, for anyone who saw TV news yesterday or who actually reads beyond the front pages, the message will surely be more mixed.
by Phil C December 4th, 2008 at 7:47 am
If you live alone and have a mortgage of £300,000 then maybe you will be a higher rate taxpaper.

If you’re a couple It’s a lot less likely. There’s lots of couples in london with mortgages over £200,000 that are not higher rate taxpayers.
by Ade B December 4th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Watching the Speaker yesterday reminded me of a time I was in a magistrates court on a motoring offense and a weasley man ahead of me charged with stealing lead from a roof claimed in mitigation that his girlfriend had put him up to it. Martin’s performance was risible.

I’ve been busy so only following politics with one eye but showing the mole on TV was a gift. Disney with Mandelson at his side couldn’t have created a less appealing pantomime villain.

Putting him on air might have have served the purpose of his lawyer-linking him with the all these upright MP’s- but for the Tories it was a disaster and unlike the rest of the giggling Shadow cabinet I think that Green knew it.
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Martin Day yesterday made the point of what will happen to people with interest-only mortgages who have savings pots put aside to pay them off. If they are caught in the savings trap, then they won’t benefit from this scheme.
by Phil C December 4th, 2008 at 7:56 am
59. Labour still hasn’t come up with a narrative on the arrest. Mandelson’s line of attack dissapeared after a few hours, the ‘no-one is above the law’ line has been ridiculed and ignored but now they have another problem. This mortgage thing is unravelling already and won’t last more than a day, while the Green thing will rumble on as the investigation rumbles on, probably towards no charges through lack of (any) evidence. Plus stephen pound is useless.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Brown was hopeless in the Commons, ill at ease and unable to deal with interjections but that doesn’t matter because the mortgage protection scheme is good headline fodder and a policy that few will oppose.

Its unlikely to help that many who are in real difficulties where the debt on their homes is unaffordable as banks will be the gatekeepers and those where the drop in income doesn’t look transient will find help is limited. It does however provide a bridge for those like the Honda employees reduced to basic wages or short time working, those where one partner loses their job but has hopes of finding another.

Gordon won the Queens Speech war though the Speech itself was rather empty.

Note from the press that the Economic Council meets in COBRA - Gordon’s favourite place in all the world. Expect that we will get a regular supply of initiatives from these meetings “helping hard working families in these difficult times”.
by Ted December 4th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Yes Gordon won with the front pages. if he had put this in the Queen’s speech he may have dominated the HoC. Instead he thought he would play his “rabbit from a hat” routine.

Q: When is a rabbit not a rabbit? A: When it is pulled out of a hat by Gordon and turns out within a few days to be a skunk.

44 Mirthios I agree that the details are unclear and as with previous Brown initiatives the details usually reveal a lot of drawbacks. The fact that some banks only knew about this a few days ago will mean that this is one of those ideas that aimed at gaining PR rather than a sensible change. Anyone really think a 2.5% VAT cut was a good use of £12 billion?
by TC December 4th, 2008 at 8:07 am
There is a fresh market on Betfair ‘Next GE-Date and Most Seats.’
The Tories in 2010 are hot favourite and that makes sense.
I have been trying to price up a 2009 GE.I make Tories slight favourite but some might disagree…..Either you make them big favourite or make Labour favourite.
Anyway,talk is cheap and loud !Come and visit me at my office.
by URW December 4th, 2008 at 8:07 am
59 - What are the Govt suggesting. That they’re going to give the civil servant his job back and pass him a load of top secret documents?

I personally don’t see why Green can’t happily sue all these Labour MPs who keep making insinuations about how he jeopardises National Security.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:12 am
65. Anyone really think a 2.5% VAT cut was a good use of £12 billion?

No it was a complete waste of cash and this new gimmick is pointless as well. I cannot believe some intellegent folk are taken in by Brown’s utter bollocks! Brown is a cretin who is screwing the economy up and making it worse every day he is in power.

No doubt Brown will be taking the credit if the Bank of England cuts rates. I still have not seen Overdraft rates fall or credit card rates fall either. So much for brown’s bank bail out!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:12 am
67. Yes, especially when Gordon Brown leaked something on the Rosyth Naval base in the 1990’s. It beggars belief!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:14 am
I don’t know if this has been mentioned but the mortgage plan only covers a percentage of the interest payments. No help is given for capital payments. If you are half way through your mortgage most of your repayments are going on capital repayments and not on interest. Also with interest rates so low (and going lower today) how much interest are people paying anyway.

The government say that people can move to interest only mortgages, however, there is normally some sort of charge for changing mortgages espeically if you are on a special scheme.
by The Obviously Randy Yeti December 4th, 2008 at 8:15 am
From Michael White’s column:

“So are ministers damaged, from Gordon Brown and Smith down? Angry about the latest well-placed mole at the Home Office, whose identity (Tory activist and job-seeker Christopher Galley) the Met was asked to trace, they hid behind police “operational independence”, ignoring the big civil liberty picture. After all, one of Brown’s Whitehall leakers in opposition is now a Labour MP.“

Who is this?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:17 am
71. That’s massive. The last line of defence is well and truly trmpled down if that’s true.
by thomas December 4th, 2008 at 8:19 am
70. It’s a total bollox gymick! If they really wanted to help people they could have changed the Mortgage Interest Income support scheme, such as suspending the intial “new” 13 week period and letting claimants claim immediatly. They could have also increased the level of loan from £100,000 to £400,000.
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:21 am
71 - Might possibly be a reference to Helen Goodman who allegedly (though I’m sure she still denies this) leaked an important Treasury document when Ken Clarke was Chancellor.
by John O December 4th, 2008 at 8:22 am
72. I wonder if Steven Pound will denounce the Labour MP and former leaker “groomed” by Gordon Brown as delusion and a wannabe MP?
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:23 am
71. Really? Who could that be?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 8:24 am
PS See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2003/09/23/do2301.xml
by John O December 4th, 2008 at 8:24 am
“There’s lots of couples in london with mortgages over £200,000 that are not higher rate taxpayers”

Unlikely I would have thought.
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 8:24 am
74 - Probably.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2003/09/23/do2301.xml
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:25 am
75. delusion = delusional
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Bit surprising that White would put such a incendiary claim in his article though…
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Brown’s attempts to win headlines look as if they’re aimed at a 24-hour advantage over the Conservatives, not one that would last to an early election.

So what emerged from yesterday:

- A poor speech by the Speaker that casts doubt over his future and that of the S-a-Arms.
- Harman refusing to support the Speaker when interviewed by Paxman.
- Cameron making a very well received speech in which he appeared to blame Brown for Greengate.
- A mysterious scheme to help mortgagees avoid reposession. We await the details with interest.
by John Marston December 4th, 2008 at 8:28 am
First prudence died.

Now personal responsibility.

In debt? Lied about your income to get a stupidly unaffordable mortgage? Withdrawn some equity to spend spend spend? Never mind! Let the government/taxpayer pick up the bill for you!

I have always lived within my means. I have payment protection insurance (which I will be cancelling). I have not over-borrowed. I have not extended my mortgage to spend it all on holidays, cars and plasma screen TVs. Well I should have done - that is the message from this appalling, amoral, disgusting, reckless, useless government.

I am indescribably livid that taxpayers money is to be used as the latest in a long line of doomed schemes to prop up the housing market and further delay the time when the market’s true value of housing will be revealed. A kick in the teeth for honest people who don’t live on credit.

What about people sensibly renting, not having lied about their income or over-extending themselves on credit, waiting patiently for an affordable house, will they get their rent paid if they lose their job, or as they have to wait YET LONGER for house prices to return to normailty?

This stinks beyond description.
by jon C December 4th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Two things will happen today.

1.An interest rate cut.
2. A European ruling against the Govt on DNA..

The Tories on here will think
a.That the Second is more important.

and that

b.The Public doesn’t support the Government on this issue.

Diconnect.disconnect.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 8:29 am
82. Pretty much. It’s a short restbite from the negative headlines of the last week, it won’t last long either. Especially as we have Jacqui Smith trying to keep her job today, hope her attempt is better than the speakers.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 8:30 am
84. Tom, your hust boring now. You have one viewpoint, that anything the tories think is important definitely isn’t, and you keep pushing it. By the way, you claimed yesterday that Mandelsons accusations of the tory front bench ‘running’ Galley were true, any evidence yet?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 8:32 am
I pay an insurance co to cover my mortgage payments in the event i am sick or unemployed. Why should i bail out those who werent careful enough to make such provision?
by james a December 4th, 2008 at 8:32 am
84 - Well once they get to 0% you’re going to have to find something else to look forward to.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Because once interest rates are 0% the only thing the Govt can do is print money.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 8:35 am
83. will they get their rent paid if they lose their job.

They get Housing Benifit!

I would not cancel your payment protection insurance! I don’t know your financial circumstances but this gimmick is no subtitute for covering yourself independently. Remember you still have to pay the interest if for instance you deffered for 2 years.

If people do start cancelling their payment protection insurance, it is another hammer blow to the financial services industy!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Tim has never been anything BUT boring
by sheepdip December 4th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Ahem! if interest rates drop to 1%, below the rate they were in the 17th cenury, will wigs be making a comeback?

Reading the posts of the Tory posters, one feels, (doesn’t one) a certain note of hysteria creeping in.

Jeremy Clarkson doesn’t think Cameron is ready to be PM, well if Cameron can’t get Clarksons’ vote, there is no hope.
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Harman car crash is at http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00fz1f7/Newsnight_03_12_2008/

Thanks to pb’ers on previous thread for notice
by disgusted December 4th, 2008 at 8:40 am
73. Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way first - The Tories and the Lib Dems embraced help for mortgage borrowers on Newsnight. Vince “Clueless” Cable is claiming authorship.

As Martin has pointed out, it’s a crap measure - with the potential to lose people (and/or banks) quite a lot in capital if they dont have a job at the end and house prices keep falling. This point is unavoidable IF house prices fall from here and are lower in two years.

Labourites prefer to think of the group who WOULD have lost their homes, but are back in work and able to service their debts.

The former group is going to be larger than the latter one - why? because repossession is always a last resort. What will be the ratio? Depends on the details of the plan.

Is this a gimmick? Yes. It costs the government little directly (interest payments), costs householders and banks a lot. Also it should help anyone in arrears, so the impact on repossessions will probably be small (the 9,000 out of 75,000), but it MIGHT be used to help all those in arrears - which is hundreds of thousands. But, it will actually be meaningless as most of those people were never in any danger of being repossessed.

Are there better ways to do this? Not really. Martin’s idea about removing the 13 week thing and the mortgage cap for unemployed people to £400,000 would be a huge disincentive to work and be expensive. It might keep a few more people in their homes than the government plan, but it would be very expensive for that. The banks would be happier - although the capital loss thing is still an issue.

Will this do anything for house prices? NO. House prices are set at the margin and the supply of distressed sellers will be fewer, but not by enough to actually freeze the market. It might improve buyer (householder) confidence a bit, but would one really want to rely on such a government scheme? No, didnt think so.

So, it’s better than the worst sceptics think, but still cr@p. As I have said before - in situations like this - all the choices are rubbish. Once again, I say the Tory JSA plan was cr@p, but it’s been better than any of the tosh ladled out by the government.
by Ken December 4th, 2008 at 8:40 am
92. Yes of course. The election’s gone without Clarkson on board. I cn well remember his decisive intervention in 97, 01 and 05.
by thomas December 4th, 2008 at 8:41 am
“not actually evil, but bad tempered, bureaucratic, officious and callous. They wouldn’t even lift a finger to save their own grandmothers from the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal without orders signed in triplicate, sent in, sent back, queried, lost, found, subjected to public enquiry, lost again, and finally buried in soft peat for three months and recycled as firelighters.”

Why does this remind me of Brown and Martin for some reason.
by dr spyn December 4th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Yesterday, 3rd December, I received a letter dated 15th November from the Pension Service saying I would shortly be credited with my winter fuel payment. In practise I received it a fortnight ago.

Rang the Pension Service about the delay to be immediately told it must have been the postal system. It was only when I challenged this that I was told in an aside that there were many people still awaiting their letter.

Problems will only get sorted if people are honest about the true situation on the ground. Lies, spin and heads in sand are doing us all a grave disservice.
by Richard (first post today) December 4th, 2008 at 8:43 am
If house prices fall another 20% over the next 2 years then delaying a move to down size their property could be a very bad move. We just do not know what the bottom point for house prices will be in this recession.
by TC December 4th, 2008 at 8:47 am
87 Not all loss of income is covered by such policies, which are notoriously restrictive.

It is unfair to those who have saved or made provision but then they don’t get left with up to two years rolled up interest to pay off. Its only the cases where the householder eventually has to give up their home where Government will refund the banks the additional debt incurred, otherwise the debt remains with the householder to be paid off after family finances recover.

Its good politics, will help those who are going through short term difficulties re-organise their finances and keep their homes. Only concern is if Banks don’t properly police the policy and use the Government guarantee to delay expensive re-possessions where in fact its a long term change in homeowners circumstances, banks being aware they will re-possess but delaying it until their finances are better - this could impact on recovery.
by Ted December 4th, 2008 at 8:48 am
78. JohnO. Good article. It’s a pity this constitutional imbroglio can’t be discussed without the righteous indignation because it raises some genuinely interesting questions
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 8:49 am
97. This letter is a perfect example of waste in government departments.

Since the WFP is paid direct into bank accounts, there is absolutely no need for a mass mailing to every recipient.

A line on your banks statement is all that is necessary.

Waste, waste and yet more waste.
by GeoffH December 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
99. True! Some schemes have very tight criteria! As Ken says there would be no incentive to work if government schemes are too generous or for that matter private insurance schemes!

My point is this is an ineffective gimmick and with all the other government spending has to be paid back further down the line. It will mean some get a further double / Triple whammy!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
re 78. Two people earning £40,000 each would not be higher rate tax-payers and used to be able to get a mortgage of £200k. In fact with Northern Rock they could have got a lot more.
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
89. Oi! That’s Brown’s post-election plan D. You could be arrested for leaking that.
by glw December 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
. You have one viewpoint, that anything the tories think is important definitely isn’t, and you keep pushing it.

Not at all.
The Tories think the economy is important, but like McCain they now that their poll ratings dip..And I’m not saying that Green is not important, just that much of the country will draw the opposite conclusion if it is found that there were a number of front benchers coaching the fragile young man.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Anything which helps the victims of the recession must be good, provided it does not worsen or prolong the downturn. However, I can’t see how it helps the government, as it begs the question of why the economy got into this state.
Back in the 1960s employees could be made redundant without a right to statutory compensation. The Wilson government changed this during the economic crisis in the late 1960s. George Brown stood up and explained that this was the best time in our history to be made redundant…to general derision. I wonder if a gaffe-prone minister is going to stand up and explain that this is the best time ever to have your mortgage foreclosed.
by Fernando December 4th, 2008 at 8:55 am
84. JonC. You are taking sanctimony to a level not often seen on here

-which is saying something!
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 8:58 am
And as for those Tories worried about 0% interest rates.
Perhaps they could write to Osborne who is the ultimate one club man.
(two if you include Bullingdon)
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 8:58 am
105. One dodgy poll rating showed a one percent Tory lead. The other polls within a day or two earlier showed Tory support increasing and Labour slumping. You are an amusing Labour Troll! You are a perfect specimen of a Labour voter! A sub 100 IQ!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 9:00 am
cassius on Plato’s view of Gordon:

http://cassiuswrites.blogspot.com/2008/12/gordons-noble-lie.html

“Does Gordon Brown believe that he is better than those around him? That, “made of a different metal”, as Plato had it - he has a special purpose to do what he knows is right for the good of society. That much is easy - of course he does. He is our Moses - and on that basis he demands that we trust him and his allies even to deciding whether an opposition MP should be deprived of his freedom after embarrassing the government.

But Plato’s definition of a ruling class had a second part - whilst the rulers would protect those lesser than themselves, they would be chosen because of their humility and their distaste for power and privilege. No ruler in Plato’s world deliberately sought the heavy responsibility which he undertook. It was a glorious imposition.

Is Mandelson such a leader? Is Gordon? Do they display humility? a distaste for power?”
by euro December 4th, 2008 at 9:00 am
“What about people sensibly renting, not having lied about their income or over-extending themselves on credit, waiting patiently for an affordable house, will they get their rent paid if they lose their job, or as they have to wait YET LONGER for house prices to return to normailty?”

That is a very good point. Unfortunately, such people are heavily “ethical” young professionals who left Labour in 2005 or who havent voted before. Therefore they dont matter.
by MBoy December 4th, 2008 at 9:01 am
109 - You could check the trends Martin

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Could this be the UK in 2010??

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/canada/3546931/Canadas-PM-Stephen-Harper-tries-to-delay-likely-defeat.html

Interesting!!
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:04 am
105 - Is ANYONE suggesting that? No. So why raise it?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 9:04 am
105. If, you were acting like it’s true, and stated as such. So far there has been no evidence, apart from a claim by the oh so neutral Mandelson, that other front benchers even knew of Gallet.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 9:04 am
As was observed last night, all lives are wasted. However, I think I could waste my life more profitably than posting comments on a political website, even the supreme political website. I’ve found myself less and less interested in the shallowness of it all and more and more bored by the absurd conceit that any of it matters much. I don’t bet enough on politics in sufficient sums to make the time investment worthwhile. I will, however, freely admit that I am formally announcing my departure to make sure that I actually do depart: this site has addictive qualities.

I genuinely do wish you all well and hope that some of you open your minds more widely to other views. For those of you that take this seriously, try not to. As a Parthian shot, my general impression is that those posters who have the highest opinion of their own abilities are usually the stupidest. Farewell.
by antifrank December 4th, 2008 at 9:05 am
alex - In which case why won’t any Tory frontbencher answer the question.

Did the Conservative Party take legal advice on what constitutes offering “inducements” to a civil servant.

If I’ve missed the answer, please enlighten me.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Is that frighteneing looking woman carrying the mace Jill Pay? When we had a retired regimental sort of chap doing the Serjeant at Arms job, the police wouldn’t dare try it on. Now we have a non military type the system falls to pieces, what, what!
by Major, Major December 4th, 2008 at 9:07 am
117. What question?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 9:09 am
116 It won’t work, Antifrank! Others have tried and they always come back.

You can leave the Site, but it never leaves you.

Good luck anyway (and thanks for the Rothko - it’s still on my windowledge.)
by Peter the Punter December 4th, 2008 at 9:09 am
78. Roger surely doesn’t realise there are people who earn such paltry sums.

On topic -

The government approach to the Green affair continues to veer between smearing, scapegoating and distraction. Brown and his minions continue to claim, without foundation, that ‘national security’ was at stake - i.e. they continue to smear Green.

Meanwhile Harman drops the heaviest hint that the hapless Martin and/or his so-called ‘Serjeant’ are going to get the boot. This is the scapegoating. If smear doesn’t work, plan B would appear to be to offer up these two as a sacrifice and hope the story goes away.

And then we have the mortgage ‘rescue’ gimmick to distract the press.

So the New Labour lie machine firing on all cylinders to try to rescue itself from the mess it is in.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 9:11 am
115

Or even Galley?

Lets see now, Mr Galley:once a member of Conservative future, ran as a Conservative candidate in a local election, told his friend, (’cos he aint got many) he wanted to be a Tory PM.

I think we can honestly say he’s not a Labour or Libdem supporter.

Does this mean that when the Tories return to power, Labour party supporters in the CS, (Labour’s client state afterall) will be able to leak, without any fear of arrest?
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:13 am
£ traded below $1.45 this morning - a new multi year low. Also down against the Euro and the Yen.
by ToneyBaloney December 4th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Pity we didn’t get the headline “Mortgage help for 0.17% of the population”

The Times is the most accurate headline - the Express spouts the kind of nonsense that got us into this mess.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Halifax House price index down 16.1%

New car registrations fell 36.8% in November:

http://www.smmt.co.uk/articles/article.cfm?articleid=18615

No more Boom and Bust!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 9:15 am
If interest rates come down again today there will soon be a backlash from the, as to now quiet, proportion on the population whose income is significantly supported by savings income.

This could of course result in some people deciding to spend rather than save, which would keep the economy going.
by mike sole December 4th, 2008 at 9:17 am
If only we could freeze council tax and put up petrol prices we could end all of this Martin
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 9:17 am
124
R4 this morning. Inducements of 30000 dollars off a new merc and they still cant sell them.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan December 4th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Lots of nonsense about the impact of the “£5 billion a year” pension tax at the end of the last thread.
First, it never cost £5 billion in any year. The peak was just over £4 billion and the annual cost has steadily reduced as pension schemes have sold UK shares (on which the tax was levied) and bought Overseas Shares and Bonds (which were unaffected by the tax).
Second people make the mistake of thinking that the tax only applied to private sector DB schemes. It also affected schemes in the funded public sector and all money purchase and personal pensions. The annual impact on private sector DB schemes is around £2 billion a year, which, if accumulated with interest comes to about £30 billion in present day terms.
Don’t get me wrong, this is £30 billion the schemes would rather have, and the annual cost will continue in perpetuity, but if you are trying to explain the current shortfall if all private sector DB schemes wanted to try and secure their benefits at insurance rates, which is somewhere north of £500 billion, the impact of the tax doesn’t get you very far. Instead you need to look at factors such as:
i. the greater security now provided to private sector DB schemes and the rising cost of that security
ii. unanticipated increases in longevity
iii. poor global equity stock market performance.

Each of these three has contributed more that £100 billion to the deficit, thus much more significant than the tax we hear so much about.
by Adam Smith December 4th, 2008 at 9:19 am
126.
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 9:19 am
126. If only we weren’t borrowing 1 trillion pounds..
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 9:19 am
The sort of nonsense that is being posted is an inducement to PB’ers to react, just ignore it and treat it with the contempt it deserves.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan December 4th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Good luck, antifrank.

You are 18 minutes clean and serene.
by disgusted December 4th, 2008 at 9:21 am
121. No-one is complaining about Galley’s arrest so you’re just muddying the issues. The problems are the arrest of an opposition MP under an obscure law which has no hope of being upheld in court using the excuse of national security because ‘the documents come from a place where some documents which are related to national security are’; and the confiscation of private correspondence from constituents during the course of the same fishing expedition. I’m sure you know this.
by thomas December 4th, 2008 at 9:22 am
121. Nice to see your on message, a message that was discredited yesterday but still Draper would be proud.
by JM G December 4th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Several BBC Scotland presenters have been told their personal health records may have been inappropriately accessed by a doctor in Fife.

The doctor, who has not been identified, is facing charges relating to an allegation that he misused access to NHS electronic records.

They probably thought they had nothing to fear as they had nothing to hide either. Well it’s not very hidden now is it?

Of course this sort of thing will be completely impossible with the ID card database won’t it, Nick P, Gabble?
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 9:24 am
128 Quite right Adam. The other factor in the decline in final salary schemes you haven’t mentioned was the drop in interest rates from 97 onwards increasing the cost of annuities.
by tres December 4th, 2008 at 9:26 am
134

First of all, it really gets tiresome in the extreme, that every time anyone posts something that does not accord with the views of the Cameron snotgobblers, they are labelled as agents of Dolly Draper.

My views are my own, they are not Tory views obviously, but I do not question the right of those who do not share my views, to post on this site, neither do I question their sincerity.
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:28 am
[42] - “Generally the most accurate poll has not been the one in the middle or the average but the one at the extreme showing Labour in the least favourable position.”

It’s not simply the case of always taking the worst poll for Labour, though I think you’re right to say one shouldn’t simply take the mid-point either.

For example, the ICM/Guardian poll of 20-21 April, 1997 had shares of Con: 37% Lab: 42% Lib Dem: 14%, a lead of 5% compared with the 1st May election result of 31-44-17 Lab +13.
by Timothy (likes zebras) December 4th, 2008 at 9:29 am
137. No, you just drga up their job, as in my case, to try and discredit their point of view.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Robert Peston is off message today..

But there is a paradox here. Part of the cause of our woes is that we saved too little and borrowed too much.

Yet by cutting interest rates the Bank of England is - in a way - punishing the thrifty and rewarding the feckless.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 9:30 am
137. But you have posted the same line of attack that was used by Labour yesterday, and was discredited by Green himself in his own speech and by the Tories.

As such you can understand my mistake.
by JM G December 4th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Should Speaker Martin stand down? — Matthew Wright, Channel 5, now, with George Galloway among others.
by John L December 4th, 2008 at 9:30 am
116 It’s the first click that gets you sick / makes you thick / makes the clock tick … er …
by disgusted December 4th, 2008 at 9:32 am
137. You don’t have any ‘views’ - just a series of incoherent prejudices and weird obsessions. And now you seek to add cast-off spin lines to the mix.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 9:32 am
“Of course this sort of thing will be completely impossible with the ID card database won’t it, Nick P, Gabble?”

Yep, plus they’ll pay for themselves and won’t generate any audit trail!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 9:34 am
139

Nothing could be further from the truth, cuddles me old sweet. I think as a civil servant, (I was one for a short time myself, and so was my wife) you do a valuable and important job.

In fact I would consider it an honour to defend people like yourself, from the outrageous suggestions (from many of the right wingers that infest this site) from the charge your all a load of lazy useless cretins.

Reading your posts, proves such charges to be utter nonsense.

p.s.

How come if your so busy, you can spend so much time posting?
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:35 am
144

So I’m on the way up then?
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Re 42 Mike Smithson “Generally the most accurate poll has not been the one in the middle or the average but the one at the extreme showing Labour in the least favourable position.”

Many thanks, my point exactly.

On another note, on the Monday of teh pre budget report I predicted that the pound would fall below $1.45. Today it has. See here;
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2008/11/pound-set-to-fall-as-government.html

I am sorry for being right.
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 9:38 am
146. I know you like to think of yourself as the witty and irreverant member of pb.com coldstone, but your not, you just put in some archaic language and act like thats enough. you also have never defended civil servants, yesterday you said none of them have a sense of irony, which of course must include you as you used to be one.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 9:39 am
” Gordon won the Queens Speech war though the Speech itself was rather empty. ”

He didn’t, he just slipped in a policy annoucement delibrately left out of the Queen’s speech in true micro-managing dictatorship stylee.

This annoucement (it not got any detail as yet), was a headline grabber. Job done, move on… give people the impression they (anyone and everyone) can’t be kicked out of their homes no matter what because the state will pay the mortgage.

IMO, it all adds up to a 2009 election, everything that is being done at the momemt is designed to give Labour a poll boost over any long term objectives.
by Matt December 4th, 2008 at 9:39 am
re 148 we are all sorry that you are right Benedict
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 9:39 am
124

Those new car registration figures are scary.
The fall is accelerating.
-23% October -36.8% November.

Anyone who suggests teh economy is going to recover mid 2009 is assuming economic miracles.

They do happen of course - see Germany post WW2 - but take years..
by Madasafish December 4th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Should Speaker Martin stand down? — Matthew Wright, Channel 5, now, with George Galloway among others.

That’ll be the same George Galloway who is campaigning on Tommy Sheridans innocence?

Free all Tommy’s and Damians!!!!
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 9:42 am
153 - I would have thought Galloway was your kinda guy comrade ?
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 9:43 am
I think a few regulars on here could recommend a good PB.com rehabilitation hostel - although it can’t be that good, as most of them fall back off the wagon eventually…

Take care, antifrank
by Morus December 4th, 2008 at 9:45 am
155. Morus - is that ConHome?
by Goupillon December 4th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Non-politics, but if anyone took the 14-1 on Roy Keane being the next manager to leave the prem, a press statement is expected this morning regarding his future. I wish him well, but I hope he is going to pack it in…

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/sunderland-in-limbo-over-keane-1050401.html
by whelan December 4th, 2008 at 9:47 am
156 - Stay away from that place… it’s scary.
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Re 151, Mike Smithson, “re 148 we are all sorry that you are right Benedict”

It gets worse as well, the cost of our government borrowing is rising fast as well, including both the cost of teh credit default swaps and the interest rate.
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Cars became 2.1% cheaper on 1st December. Anyone thinking of buying one at the end of November would have surely waited a few days.
by Icarus December 4th, 2008 at 9:48 am
149

That’s why I left, they couldn’t get my jokes, even the one I married, forty years later she still can’t get ‘em.
by coldstone December 4th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Roger, if you’re still here add ‘Doubt’ to your list of must sees - Meryl Streep is excellent. Good cinematography from Roger Deakins as well. I know it’s off topic, but it’s Oscar related.
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 9:49 am
156 Speak not lightly of ConHome, Goupillon.

It is a Detention Centre for convicted posters - PB’s Guantanamo Bay.
by Peter the Punter December 4th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Pre-PBR on 24 November
£1 = $1.4906: now £1 = $1.4528, down $0.0378
£1 = €1.1809: now £1 = €1.1545, down €0.0264

Is this a result of:

A. Messrs Cameron and Osborne talking down the economy
B. Messrs Brown and Darling running down the economy
C. President-Elect B.H.Obama bailing out the car companies

Answers on a postcard please
by mirthios December 4th, 2008 at 9:52 am
164. Is it not D. Britain being the best placed country to weather the downturn ?
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 9:53 am
It’ll be interesting to see what the uncommitted make of the shenanigans of the last week. I’ve only caught a sideways glance but if I can sum up……..

1. The self obsessing Tories have looked like a troupe from Cheltenham ladies College appearing with Gok in ‘How to look good naked’

2. Their mole looked like ‘Regan’ from the Exorcist.

3. Damien Green from being the nicest Tory now looks like an extra from Minder (by association with ‘the mole’)

4. Brown seems to be the only politician in the UK whose concerns are those of the electorate.

5. Cameron has as much chance of becoming PM after this week’s showing as Martin Day has of becoming a compiler for Encyclopedia Britannica.

(Disclaimer. This might not be the view of everyone on PB.Com)
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Expectation that US and UK interest rates will converge?

When will it be down to Thatcher levels?

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph2.htm
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 9:59 am
164 Haven’t you heard of the Bank of England? Interest rate expectations innit.
by tres December 4th, 2008 at 9:59 am
152. I note that the Germans who haven’t borrowed vast sums to reinflate the economy say car sales down by less than half of the Uk - pesky do nothing club !
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Many indebted people are having their expectations raised to dangerously high levels. They are going to have a rude awakening when Brown doesn’t ride to their rescue with bundles of free cash.

Meanwhile, todays Halifax figures show house prices falling at warp speed of 2.6%. Over 16% annually. The crash is underway and cock-and-bull schemes from a charlatan ain’t gonna stop it.
by voxpop December 4th, 2008 at 10:02 am
166. Does Cameron have more or less chance of becoming PM than you gave Obama of becoming President ?
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 10:02 am
163.Ptp - what happens there? Do the blue harpies come and torture you by threatening to drown you with an incessant torrent of Gordon Brown abuse?
by Goupillon December 4th, 2008 at 10:03 am
166. Those look like the views of you and no-one else, I’d put that on the disclaimer too.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 10:03 am
The worlds best run banking sector is….Lebanon

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1978ece-c170-11dd-831e-000077b07658.html
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 10:04 am
166
In your dreams, Roger. Don’t believe your own hype! You’re fu**ed and you know you are
by voxpop December 4th, 2008 at 10:04 am
From another blog…

Just for the record, today the Great British Pound buys 5.05410 Argentine Pesos. Yesterday it bought 5.05809 of them. One week ago one Great British Pound bought 5.14114.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 10:05 am
128. I had the task at one time of changing a defined benefits pension scheme into a money purchase one. The primary driver was to safeguard the company as we saw the changes coming into force were going to put the company at risk because of its pension commitments.

At the time of the introduction of the tax chamges, the argument was that the increase in share prices would offset any tax increases. That has never been particularly viable, more so at the present time. Yes many pension funds have moved into bonds but that is to match the liabilities of existing pensioners whereas future pensioners need growth in excess of bond returns to give them the funds to meet their future liabilities.

Longer lives are certainly an issue but there appears to have been collective hands in the sands on this one, possibly driven by the government. Also it is recognised that some public sector pension schemes are funded. Witness my posting about the whole of my council tax increases being used to pay for higher employer contributions.

I know from experience that the ongoing effects of the change in the tax regime is detrimental to the pension funds and therefore the future pensioners. I certainly believe the tax changes in 1997 has been the catalyst that brought unintended consequences that will cumulatively be very damaging.
by Richard (first post today) December 4th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Average house price down £31,485 in the past 12 months according to Halifax.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7764272.stm
by Matt J December 4th, 2008 at 10:07 am
EdP. How you are getting to see films over two months before UK release is worrying! Though it’s tempting to download I don’t really like to see a film intended for cinema on a small screen.

I’ve heard good things about it though and maybe I’ll find a way to see it before February.
by Roger December 4th, 2008 at 10:09 am
178. I still can’t afford one!
by ChrisM December 4th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Re 166, Roger “(Disclaimer. This might not be the view of everyone on PB.Com)”

Re 168, tres, “164 Haven’t you heard of the Bank of England? Interest rate expectations innit.”

Other countries have very low rates as well like Japan. The pound is tanking against that as well.
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 10:12 am
166

Perhaps you should add to your disclaimer:

“Follow my advice and seriously damage your wealth. Recommended Barclays at £6.00 now £1.55″
by Madasafish December 4th, 2008 at 10:12 am
179 Roger, I can assure you I’ve seen them all on the big screen. Anyone involved in piracy who crossed my path would regret their actions!
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 10:15 am
re 171, The Ghost of Harry Flashman “166. Does Cameron have more or less chance of becoming PM than you gave Obama of becoming President ?”

Slightly more I suspect
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 10:15 am
“It’ll be interesting to see what the uncommitted make of the shenanigans of the last week.”

You mean your Dutch focus group?
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Re 174, Tim “The worlds best run banking sector is….Lebanon”

Well, its been that was for a couple of thousand years, so what were you expecting? They also have some of the worlds most respected bankers who can sign letters of credit for billions.
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 10:17 am
BREAKING — European court backs 2 innocent British men whose DNA was retained on the police database!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:17 am
187. Huge blow for Labour’s security state, if so.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Re The BoE and betting (yes, I know. Apologies for mentioning it on a betting site).

It says something that Betfair’s market on the MPC decision doesn’t even include drops of 1% or more as specific options (they’re bundled in with down 0.75%+). It could be argued that what it says is that Betfair are unresponsive to likely events, but leaving that aside, in a pretty illiquid market, the spread on that option is 1.05-1.18.

As for the headlines, yes, they are good for Brown. At this stage of the game, that’s what matters. It looks as if he’s doing things to help people. As the recession drags on, that perception will change if people become disillusioned with the announcements. Question is: how fast will that happen? April/May 2009 election anyone?
by David Herdson December 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
I pray so!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
181 The Japanese rate cut was lower than market expectations.
by tres December 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Roger @ 166. I wonder how the next Tory government will deal with leakers. Labour is setting up some awkward precedents.

Good on David Winnick for being the only Labour MP to see the principles at stake.

I think that what’s gone on brings deep shame on Labour which it will live to regret. Fools - dumb stupid fools and they don’t see it.
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Re 187, Banned Horse “BREAKING — European court backs 2 innocent British men whose DNA was retained on the police database!”

Fantastic!
by Benedict White December 4th, 2008 at 10:20 am
192. It set’s up the tories to look good either way, if they clamp down and maybe arrest someone there is precedent, if they don’t (which is probably they route they’ll take, I can see them sacking the civil servant involved) they look more liberal and open.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 10:22 am
re 166 I’m sure that Martin D would make an excellent editor as long as he got someone to check his spelling. Martin you do have you job applications checked I hope!
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Talking of unintended consequences [Richard(fpt) @ 177]:

“If house prices are in for a prolonged downturn, (Brown’s mortgage) policy could backfire. Both borrower and lender might be better off accepting repossession now rather than taking advantage of the breathing space only to capitulate two years later and find the home selling for even less.
“One other unintended consequence is that the policy could further squeeze the supply of new mortgage lending. Banks will receive less in mortgage payments during the moratorium, leaving them with less to lend out and the mortgages of those taking part will increase as the interest is rolled up, forcing banks to allocate more capital to them, with less for new lending.”

From today’s Times:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5282728.ece

Oops there goes another mobile ‘phone.
by mirthios December 4th, 2008 at 10:24 am
“Good on David Winnick for being the only Labour MP to see the principles at stake.”

If most Labour MPs and policies were like Winnick, I’d vote Labour in a heartbeat.
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Robert Peston has written an interesting article asking why savers should be punished with interest rate cuts -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/12/why_punish_savers.html#commentsanchor

Ken, if interest rates are cut and the incentive to save is further reduced, how will the capitalisation of the banks be affected when customers choose to reduce deposits?
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 10:25 am
re 187 that’s absolutely fabulous news. And before tim get’s his barb in - I’m not a Tory.
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 10:25 am
BBC calls DNA database decision “landmark ruling”, awaiting details…

Presumably the Government will have to amend its retention policies accordingly? Maybe rent-an-authoritarian-gobash*te McNumpty could be wheeled out accuse Europe of being “soft on terror” or something…
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:27 am
192. Labour are now in pure survival mode Mike and would probably be happy to support the massacre of the innocents if they thought it would garner a few votes.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Of course with this lot in charge how long will it be before a bill is introduced requiring all of us to troop down to the police station to have our DNA taken?
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Letting the police in was the Michael Martin’s responsibility, not Jill Pay’s (Telegraph)

Was Damian Green’s office door locked? If so, who unlocked it?
by disgusted December 4th, 2008 at 10:28 am
“And before tim get’s his barb in - I’m not a Tory.”

Neither am I. Besides, why would Labour supporters be in favour of innocent people who have never been charged with even a minor crime, let alone convicted, having their DNA retained by the police? Unless of course such supporters are authoritarian, statist sheeple…
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:31 am
“Of course with this lot in charge how long will it be before a bill is introduced requiring all of us to troop down to the police station to have our DNA taken?”

Will be added to the bottom of the Bill which eventually makes ID cards compulsory for all, and don’t think it (or they) won’t be!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:32 am
17 senior judges say, “DNA database breaches rights.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7764069.stm
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:35 am
204. Remember what Nick Palmer said - we are all potential criminals. Some of us might, for example, reveal embarassing information about government cover ups - the most heinous offence imaginable.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:36 am
206, huzah! Death to authoritarianism!
by Morris Dancer December 4th, 2008 at 10:36 am
A couple of points
1. On the subject of security of data, an interesting Freedom of Information Act request might be to ask various police forces how many officers have been subject to disciplinary action due to computer misuse/misuse of informationin the past couple of years
2. Mike makes an interesting point as to who won the headline war - but within the speech is a definite vote loser (see the front of the Telegraph) how many people will thank the great leader when Tesco, Asda etc have to withdraw their 3 for £10 wine offers etc!!
by Dave ex cop December 4th, 2008 at 10:37 am
The Standard has a scoop on another “evil” leaker.. sounds like she was “groomed” to me..

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23597038-details/High-flying+minister+was+implicated+over+Tory+leak/article.do

A minister rapidly promoted by Gordon Brown is a former Treasury civil servant who was once prime suspect in a leak inquiry.

Government whip Helen Goodman wrote a secret report that embarrassed the former Conservative government when it fell into the hands of Gordon Brown, then shadow chancellor.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 10:38 am
“Remember what Nick Palmer said - we are all potential criminals.”

My respect for him was already infinitesimal. If he really said that then we’re talking negative quantities.
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:40 am
209 - To the Tower with her!
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:41 am
209 Wasn’t that discussed on here last night? Funny how the ES are running it today. Did they credit pb.com?
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Repost from earlier.

“Two things will happen today.

1.An interest rate cut.
2. A European ruling against the Govt on DNA..

The Tories on here will think
a.That the Second is more important.

and that

b.The Public doesn’t support the Government on this issue.

Diconnect.disconnect.

by tim December 4th, 2008 at 8:29 am ”

I don’t think I’ve expressed my views on a DNA base.
I will express my views on what side the public takes though, and its that where the disconnect comes in.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 10:42 am
209. Any chance the police will move to arrest this person and her handler on the grounds of committing ‘misconduct in a public office’? Or perhaps they can be prosecuted for eating mince pies at Christmas or wearing armour in the palace of Westminster.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
209. Hmmm, interesting, think the tories should stay well away from this though, let the papers and media in general have a shufty.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
211 FoW - Have you forgotten?

Leak to Labour = Good

Leak to everyone else = Bad, evil, disgraceful, treasonable hanging offence etc
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Good day to bury bad news - 3400 custom and excise office jobs go!

Helping hardworling families in hatd times!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 10:45 am
“I don’t think I’ve expressed my views on a DNA base.
I will express my views on what side the public takes though”

The public will always take the most illiberal, authoritarian position, without fail. That’s why representative democracy isn’t the same as mob rule, and thank God it isn’t.
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:46 am
216 - Sorry, my bad. I keep forgetting that important detail.
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Charles Kennedy on R4 this morning said that over the last few days the political subject raised with him was Damian Green affair not the recession, VAT cuts etc. Human interest wins over politics most times.

The mortgage story has a human interest side which makes it more compelling than much of the other political stuff but even then it isn’t a good gossip story, something that can be chatted about because it involves real people under pressure; Greengate still is and the DNA story could be as people can argue about it without having to have a deep understanding of economics, lending rates etc.
by Ted December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Tired of slick media presentation from your politicians?

Then join the Canadian Liberal party.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081203/dion_video_081203/20081203?hub=TopStories
by Aristotle December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
218. With Labour we have yob rule.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Good day to bury bad news - 3,400 custom and excise office jobs go!This is breaking news on the BBC.

Helping hardworking families in hard times! What a cynical bunch Labour are, they choose to hide Government job losses behind the likely interest rate cut and the EU ruling.

What ever happened to the rule book being torn up on dealing with the recession? I should imagine keeping government jobs would have been the priority?
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 10:48 am
223. Don’t worry - the Express says they will have their mortgages paid in full for 2years.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
It’s worth noting that Scotland *doesn’t* retain the DNA of innocent people but has managed to avoid being overrun by knife-wielding rapists on the loose.
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
“Liberal leader Stephane Dion appeared over-saturated…”
Hmmm, some other Liberal leaders have had that problem too.
by archroy December 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
225. It sends all its really dangerous criminals to Westminster instead.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
224 - What does the Beano have to say about it, for those of us who want a slightly more credible and mature source of news than the Express?
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
224 - What does the Beano have to say about it, for those of us who want a slightly more credible and mature source of news than the Express?
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
228/229 Apologies for double post
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:51 am
226 refers to 221
by archroy December 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Morning all

There’s a very interesting article on Luke Akehurst’s blog summarising a talk given by John Curtice, including this great quote: “there are always lots of sheep in the electorate - the party with the best sheepdog wins”

Well worth a read (apparently a full version will be on the IPPR website later):

http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2008/12/can-labour-win.html

116 - I do hope that antifrank has not been permanently shoved off by the rantings of various people on this site. His independently-minded comments have been excellent.
by Richard Nabavi December 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
232 - I hope Antifrank will be back - I suspect he will..

“Hotel Political Betting - You can check out but you can never leave”
by Fleet of Worlds December 4th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Actually i don’t think the public take the view that innocent people’s DNA should be held by the police. If they did they would all be queueing up to hand in a sample. This isn’t a “nothing to hide, nothing to fear” issue.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 10:55 am
234. With the government losing sensitive data daily I suspet the public would rather their DNA wasn’t being kept by the same people, it’s also the reaon why I.D cards are becoming so unpopular.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
234 “The Public” (i.e 1 million individulas divided by a million, then grossed up again) wants the neighbour’s DNA on the database.
by disgusted December 4th, 2008 at 10:57 am
217 More joined up thinking by HMG. Surely with worsening economic conditions it makes sense to keep HMCE fully staffed to ensure tax revenues are collected and not avoided?
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 10:57 am
237 - Customs and Excise doesn’t exist any more. Are we sure these jobs aren’t going from HMRC? (presumably Corporation Tax section!)
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Yes Alex,
Its a disaster for the government and will hasten a Cameron landslide.
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 11:02 am
“Customs and Excise doesn’t exist any more.”

Who just charged me 20 quid tax on my DVD box set from abroad, then?!??!!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
243 - That would be HMRC (Customs and Excise section).

242 - ?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Anyone noticed that the Govt has made money on RBS?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:06 am
re 237 and why hasn’t the stupid Jacqui volunteered her DNA to the database. her comments on the ruling today are a disgrace, as is she.
by Chris A December 4th, 2008 at 11:07 am
245. Only on paper - just like its only a paper loss with NRK as all their mortgages are “high quality”
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 11:10 am
This is what i meant:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/HM-Customs-And-Revenue-Axing-3400-Jobs-Says-Trade-Union/Article/200812115172397?lpos=Business_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15172397_HM_Customs_And_Revenue_Axing_3%2C400_Jobs_Says_Trade_Union

The government are absolute cretins the way they behave!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Are we running a book on how long it will take Antifrank to unflounce?
by Martin Coxall December 4th, 2008 at 11:10 am
246. What has she said?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:11 am
246 ALL MPs’ in agreement with the setting up of the ID and DNA databases should be forced to lead by example, providing samples and registering for ID cards before anyone else in a pilot scheme.
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Dizzy reveals Brown lied to Parliament: http://dizzythinks.net/

Gist is, ALL banks only cover 52% of mortgages. Brown claimed the big 8 covered 70%.
by Morris Dancer December 4th, 2008 at 11:11 am
251. Only another 657 unjustified raids needed before we get there. A small price to pay for knowing our elected members will never get away with committing any crimes.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:12 am
245. govt is highly likely, in the long run, to make money on all the nationalised banks. unless the banking system collapses from here on - a small risk but a risk nonetheless. that is because they paid bottom dollar for large, until recently successful, companies.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:13 am
@254:

‘apparently’ successful, ITYM.
by Martin Coxall December 4th, 2008 at 11:14 am
“The Home Secretary says she is disappointed a court has ruled keeping DNA samples from people without criminal conviction breaches their human rights.

However Jacqui Smith says the existing law will remain in place while ministers consider the judgment.”

I can see the Daily Rant headlines already. Not very choice words from Jacqui again, foot….mouth.
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:14 am
248 - Right. So it’s not Customs jobs. You can’t complain about “cushy” public sector jobs, and then complain when people are made redundant due to there being no work for them to do.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
250, she’s “disappointed” — GOOD!
by BannedHorse December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
254. Ed, listening to you on economics and banking is as useful as me telling you how to spell and become a master of English grammer!
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
252 - Far be it for me to defend Gordon Brown, but Dizzy seems to think the Nationwide is not a Building Society, so I’m not sure his article is entirely authoritative.
by Richard Nabavi December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
256. She just says what sounds the harshest, then backpeddles afterwards or just dissapears.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
252. It used to be big news if the Prime Minister lied to Parliament. Now it’s so common-place that very few people even raise an eyebrow.
by Penny4Them December 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
As a liberal leftie expecting to see a Tory goverment in the next few years the current politicisation of the police and the attitude of the government towards leaks is very worrying to me. Do Labour want to give the Tories an excuse to behave the same way. That’s what we’ll have unless something is done about it NOW. Sadly the atrocious Brown isn’t interested as any mention of a Tory government only reminds him of his retirement. What should he care? He doesn’t.
by Frank Booth December 4th, 2008 at 11:16 am
262. The big news now would be if Brown said anything that was truthful.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:17 am
260 - lol bit careless! Looks like Gordon was right then!
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:17 am
254 - I agree that I can see the likes of RBS making us money in the long run as they have plenty of solid business, but Northern Rock? They have already shallowed a lot of money never to be seen again, Granite is in trouble, and a lot of what is left is the toxic waste!
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:17 am
263. Brown isn’t a liberal lifty though, he’s a strict lefty, one of those that believe his way is the only way.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:18 am
257. I haven’t complained about “Cushy” public sector jobs!

Does it lie with Labour tearing up the rulebook on getting families through the downturn? Surely they could have waited until the recovery?
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:18 am
248.
Seriously,

a public sector layoff of this size at this time is a real bellweather to the extent of the governments problems.

This is much more dramatic than I would have anticipated. The fan must have been well and truly hit hard.
by Herbert Proper Snr December 4th, 2008 at 11:18 am
262 I’d fall off my chair if I heard him tell the truth!
by EdP December 4th, 2008 at 11:19 am
I fear antifrank may indeed be the one that got away, which is a pity. Haven’t seen James Burdett in these parts either for some time, nor indeed Sean Fear.
by John O December 4th, 2008 at 11:20 am
268 - Apologies then. Many have.

Seriously though the Govt is expecting very little relatively in the way of corporation tax receipts this year. Income tax receipts will also be down. Really if the Public Sector can’t lay off tax collector jobs in those circumstances, then when can they ever?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Smith making statement now
by Icarus December 4th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I’m out for an hour or two.
Whae I get back I can expect to see just how fantastic Grieve and Osborne have been on TV.

Disconnect! Disconnect!
by tim December 4th, 2008 at 11:21 am
271, saw Mister Fear a day or two ago. Not seen James Burdett for a while though
by Morris Dancer December 4th, 2008 at 11:22 am
only 3 hour debate on monday + government members will be in the majority on 7 person commitee….which wont even sit until the investigation is completed….this shambles gets worse….
by chris_g00 December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
194 Mike. Perhaps NickP should be asked to respond to your “dumb stupid fools” point. You are right, of course, but it rather confirms my comments about NP in the last year. As Sybil said “Why did I ever trust you, Basil?” “We all make mistakes, dear”.
by Svejk December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
269. Yes the VAT gimmick could have paid to keep these folks in a job - I still think the primary motivation for that was political.

Brown wanted to cause Osborne trouble and Ken Clarke had advocated prior to the PBS. It well and truely backfired on Brown but we know his stupid mindset!

Gordon Brown is a complete nutter and this country has got a huge ball and chain currently being attached to it through Labour’s mismanagement.
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
269. Yes the VAT gimmick could have paid to keep these folks in a job - I still think the primary motivation for that was political.

Brown wanted to cause Osborne trouble and Ken Clarke had advocated prior to the PBS. It well and truely backfired on Brown but we know his stupid mindset!

Gordon Brown is a complete nutter and this country has got a huge ball and chain currently being attached to it through Labour’s mismanagement.
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
269 - The government has been making a virtue of laying off civil servants for some years now. Indeed they and the Tories compete at how many they each say they can get rid of. Why are you getting squeamish about it now?
by Neil December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Many Conservatives are quite open in saying that they want to see tax cuts now, funded not by borrowing but by big cuts in Public Sector Waste. It is a fact that most of this waste is caused by people doing jobs that aren’t necessary, not by money being spent on things that aren’t needed. The main reason for the huge rise in public sector jobs is the performance target culture.

If you want to cut that waste then the only way to do it is to cut jobs.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:24 am
266. still talking about arrears rates under 5% on mortgages made in this country though, right?

the bigger problems are securing funding on credit, which should not be too much of a problem at present, and dodgy investments in US property and derivatives, which are the real “toxic waste”.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Is Jacqui Smith in mourning?
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Operational Independence, lalalala, Operational Independence…. lalalalala
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:27 am
281. on closer inspection a lot of these claims appear quite hard to pin down though. “not necessary” often turns out to be “not necessary - for me personally”.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:27 am
“I support the right of MPs to make available information in the public interest. I don’t support the right of MPs to systematically make available information in the public interest”.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:28 am
271. if the site continues to be invaded by two diametrically opposed armies of astroturfers who are not remotely interested in reasoned debate, the more reasonable posters will continue to leave one by one.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
283 - yes, for democracy.
by mirthios December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
284. She’ll get ripped apart though, Howard etc who all have experience as home secretary will cite previous examples or just dissagree with her.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
285 - apologies. “Aren’t necessary” in the opinion of the Conservatives.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
287. True - I’m off too.
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
What was a waste of time, here comes Grieve (big yawn).
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:29 am
286. Does that make sense?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:30 am
281. You misunderstand why i raise the point, i do not have an opinion on whether the jobs should be retained but it is the fact that it is counter to the government’s narrotive of looking after hardworking families. Just a point!

I don’t know what the fat B’stard Government chief whip and the monkey to his left has to smile about with regard to the Green arreast! (Just watching the statement!).
by Martin Day December 4th, 2008 at 11:31 am
293 - why should it make any sense? It’s Jacqui Smith.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:31 am
292. Yes, he isn’t the most dynamic, prefer Davis to be doing this but it’s his own fault he isn’t.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:32 am
This is where Grieve is so poor. He justed asked 10-15 questions in one go. I have already forgotten the first one. Is he not allowed to go through in a series of “questions”?
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:34 am
287. Which category do you consider yourself to be in?
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:34 am
297. Might not be allowed to, are Howard etc hovering in the background?
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:35 am
297 - he’s not asking questions because he’s expecting an answer. He has to put them in question form because he’s not allowed to make a speech.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:35 am
300. Ah, that would explain it.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
297. I doubt it, after there was no PBR debate until a push and Brown not giving way yesterday I dont think debate is the Brown governments strong point.
by JM G December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Well why don’t the Tories ask as a team and have them all ask one or two questions from a prepared list? If they don’t get an answer, have another similar one to have another go. Poor tactics IMO.
by Oracle December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
290. point is, that everyone who claims this then seems to overstretch the point, which at least reduces the impact of the point. an example was the rather crude treatment of social workers after the baby P debacle. they are still needed, believe it or not, even if some of them perform in line with the pitiful wages available for doing it.

i’m sure there are cost savings to be made in many parts of the public sector, but they are not as clear-cut and as big as some would have you believe. the onus is on the Cons to be a bit more specific about where these costs might be saved, and maybe a bit more honest about which services will be lost.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
176. Fisk agrees:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisks-world-financial-doom-and-gloom-is-everywhere-ndash-except-lebanon-972797.html?startindex=40

And now I’m off to count my Keane payout…

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/exclusive-sunderland-and-keane-part-company-1049867.html
by whelan December 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
298. i generally play devils advocate to both sides, usually out of genuine interest in getting beyond the superficial spin onto real policies and their effects.
i have a somewhat thicker skin than antifrank though, poor delicate flower that he is/was.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:39 am
The problem with this site is that the really great posters are sparing with their posts and the one-eyed illiterates are profligate.
The effect is that of having to wade through a non-stop stream of rubbish whilst awaiting the good stuff.
I am a paid-up member of the NOM Party and as such have no mainstream political affiliations.
by URW December 4th, 2008 at 11:41 am
At a wild guess I’d say Smith has been ordered to use the same lines as before, not above the law, operational independance etc etc.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:41 am
304 ed - “the onus is on the Cons to be a bit more specific about where these costs might be saved, and maybe a bit more honest about which services will be lost.”

Well, maybe, but you can also take a common-sense macro view. There has been an absolutely massive increase in public expenditure - as indeed Gordon Brown keeps boasting - so it’s hardly unreasonable to say there are also big savings to be made, for example by merely going back to the level of four or five years ago. And that doesn’t necessarily mean ’services will be lost’.
by Richard Nabavi December 4th, 2008 at 11:42 am
304 - Yes, but to conflate front line staff (social workers) with backroom positions confuses things. It is a fact that the Performance Mgt culture has vastly increased the number of public sector jobs, both for organisations to produce the figures and make sure they’re compliant, and the regulatory functions.

The Govt will argue that it is worth the extra cost, but others would cite a lot of it as “waste”.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:44 am
307 URW - Have you closed your SpreadFair positions? The reason I ask is that both I and PfP got the impression that they may be quite flexible on price. In my case I negotiated a small improvement (although this was on a small position). Might be worth discussing with them, if you haven’t closed.
by Richard Nabavi December 4th, 2008 at 11:45 am
308. how did you know! amazing
by Jimbo Jones December 4th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Jacqui Smith saying that all Civil Service leaks should be criminal offences. All civil servants should go through their departmental whistleblowing procedures.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:46 am
312. yes - the message is pretty clear. Even the superannuated nobody Labour wheeled out on the radio this morning stuck unfailingly to the same script.
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
312. Thought so, she’s been told to try and close out the debate by revealing as little as possible, it’s like Brown’s tactics at PMQ’s. She can’t win the debate or even look that good, but then again she won’t lose badly either.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
312. Thought so, she’s been told to try and close out the debate by revealing as little as possible, it’s like Brown’s tactics at PMQ’s. She can’t win the debate or even look that good, but then again she won’t lose badly either.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
313 Oops, that sounds like the government digging itself into an even bigger hole.
by Richard Nabavi December 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
I’ve worked in the performance reporting section of a government department. We mostly copied information off an internal website and pasted it into a spreadsheet, a blatantly inefficient process. The one time we were asked for information not on the website we got it from a friend of a friend in the home office, not through any official channel. There was also the time we discovered one person was passing information to another a few desks over via a chain of 3 people in multiple cities, not one of whom did anything with the information.

There’s certainly plenty of waste in the civil service, but much of it is like those examples - invisible to anyone not familiar with the organisational minutia, and the civil service is too big for anyone to understand it that well. Nonetheless, this waste needs eliminating. Jobs would go, but a competent government could create jobs with the money saved, one way or another.
by Robert of Sheffield December 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
313. Good grief - she can’t be serious. Not going be a retrospective thing, one assumes?
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:48 am
313. Whoa, big mistake. That’s changing the rules completely to suit them, when they were in opposition they didn’t do that.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:48 am
317. Blatently yes, thinking only of now and not of the future, plus they look like hypocrites.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:49 am
309. i agree there is a case to be made, but that analysis seems somewhat simplistic. the delayed effect of any investment, particularly serious investment, MUST be taken into account.

e.g. the railways had a ’splurge’ of investment recently in response to a series of safety incidents. i think most would agree that much of this was necessary to keep them running, making up for several decades of neglect, rather than producing any new “services”. some parts of the rail network are just starting to show signs of being fit for purpose again. it would be very easy to say that spending on those could be cut back to the low levels of 19xx without losing services, but in fact that fluctuation is what is really expensive in the long term - further neglect will result in a monstrous bill in future.

apologies if there are impurities in this example, which was the first thing i thought of, but i think similar logic applies to many (not all) areas.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I’ll vote for this idea, how about it Gord?

Australians told to take a break for the economy
Thu Dec 4, 2008 James Grubel

CANBERRA (Reuters) - As Australia fights to head off recession, the national government on Thursday urged workers to take a holiday to help stimulate the economy.

The country’s 11 million workers have hoarded about 121 million days of paid-leave entitlements which the government wants to unlock to help stimulate a tourism sector hard hit by the global downturn.

Australian Tourism Minister Martin Ferguson said tourism officials would hold meetings with major employer groups next week to kickstart a “No Leave, No Life” campaign.

Ferguson has set his eyes on the A$31 billion ($20 billion) of holiday pay owed to workers and is leading the push to force business to make sure employees take their accrued holidays, and to encourage Australians to holiday at home.

“It is good for business, good for employees and potentially good for our tourism industry as it faces some tough times because of the global financial crisis,” Ferguson said.
by Herbert Proper Snr December 4th, 2008 at 11:49 am
319/320 - I should just say that the first line of my comment was an inference from the second, not her actual words.

Apologies.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:49 am
324. Ah, didn’t think she’d be that daft, would rile the labour beckbenchers badly.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:51 am
John Reid said that he would have “expected to have been informed and given the chance to express a view about his ‘opposite number’ being arrested”.
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:52 am
321. If she is serious, isn’t that essentially admitting that there were no criminal elements in the case in question?
by runnymede December 4th, 2008 at 11:52 am
326. Uh oh, he isn;t towing the party line. Has Mandelson’s attack yesterday brought his enemies out of the woodwork? Perhaps they were prepaired to be quiet until he shouted his mouth off.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Reid suggesting he was surprised that Smith wasn’t informed and says he wouldn’t have remained so placcid had he been informed that her effective oppsite number had been arrested.
by Frank Booth December 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Richard N @ 311.Yesterday afternoon I received a ‘phone call from a Forum friend who works in the City.
“Have you contacted Spreadfair ? ”
“No.” I had decided to let my positions run to closure for two reasons.
1.They were bombproof.Had sold the three major Parties at 636.1.
2.I didn’t think Spreadfair would share my high opinion of them.

“Well you should ! I just closed my Tory Sell with a Buy at 337.0 and have transferred the Sell to Sporting Index at 342.0 (now 340.0).”
This was hard news and I thought maybe to Buy out my entire position at 620.0,commission free.
Sadly Spreadfair played hardball and were only prepared to offer 626.0 which was a joke.
So in answer to your question,RN,I haven’t closed.
by URW December 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Welcome news re: DNA database. Won’t help with this, though:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-big-brother-state-ndash-by-stealth-1050576.html
by b. December 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
310, 318. firstly on reporting/performance management, this is necessary to some degree in any successful organisation - and the civil service needs to be more open and accountable than most. this does not justify the sort of timewasting you are talking about.

however, this sort of thing is going to be awfully difficult to track down, isn’t it. your office has a chain of people sending information around, great. an identified cost saving. but this can’t be done from the top down in such a large organisation. the size of the task cannot even be measured.

any large private business suffers from many of the same problems, and they have pretty good financial incentives to “sort things out”. the problem is that it is not as easy as that.
by ed December 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Lol - Smith completely skewered by John Hemming asking her how many documents the civil servant would have had a duty to reveal if asked under the Freedom of Information Act!
by alex December 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
New thread: “Can Martin survive without Harman’s support?
by Mike Smithson December 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
329. Oooh, even worse. This isn’t looking good, yesterday I overestimated the speakers ability to get out of trouble, today I overestimated the home secretaries. Both are being buried.
by Cuddles December 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
322, “this sort of thing is going to be awfully difficult to track down,”

Precisely my point. Much government waste is like that, so cutting it will be in no way trivial. That doesn’t mean the effort shouldn’t be made, just that we should recognise how much effort will be needed. If any of the parties understand this, they haven’t done a good job of explaining it.
by Robert of Sheffield December 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Any profit from holding bank shares will be dwarfed by the other costs of bank rescues and the trillion of national debt.
by Witan December 4th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I just don’t understand why the (alleged) right-wing press fall for Gordon Brown’s announcements every time. Surely they realise that the devil will, as always, be in the detail and that they should examine the policy for holes before publicising it. Do the Labour party have some sort of hold over all of the newspapers in this Country?
by NotaSheep December 4th, 2008 at 5:32 pm

Gord wins the headline war

338 comments to “Gord wins the headline war”

New thread: “Can Martin survive without Harman’s support?

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