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Which one is likely to be out first?

December 30th, 2008

Is the William Hill 7/4 on it being Gord a value bet?

Thanks to Noisy Summer on the the previous thread for picking this up but William Hill has just launched a new online market on which of the three party leaders – Brown. Clegg or Cameron – will leave their post first.

The bookie makes Clegg the 11/10 favourite with Brown at 7/4 and Cameron at 5/2. I think that they have got this wrong and that the Brown odds offer the value.

Nick Clegg. After a tentative start Clegg is now seen within the party to be doing a lot better and his stances of civil liberties issues are resonating. He performed very well over Greengate – an issue that’s likely to erupt again in the next few weeks if the case is dropped.

After going through two leadership contests within such a short time there is simply no stomach in the party for a new contest and it would take a massive explosion for something to force Clegg out. Yes some polls have been poor for the party but their ICM figures have been pretty stable and that pollster has by far the best long-term record of getting the third party share right. Even if there are general election set-backs I think he will remain in the post for the foreseeable future.

David Cameron: I can’t see any circumstances in which the Tories would change horses this side of the election. It’s just too close and Cameron has shown that he’s resilient when things have been down. Clearly a below expectation general election outcome would make him vulnerable but unless Labour is returned with workable majority then he appears secure.

Gordon Brown: He’s had a renaissance in the past ten weeks but if things turn badly wrong again then his leadership, surely, could become an issue again. If this does happen then it’s going to hit his confidence very hard. My sense for some time is that if Brown thought he was heading for certain defeat in the general election then he might step aside on health grounds.

So 7/4 on it being Brown seems like a value bet and is where my money has gone.






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