Was this the moment that Labour was “doomed”?

In an interesting column on electoral reform today the Indy writer who often seems to be more Blairite than Blair, John Rentoul, made the following observation:-

“..I am bound by that old self-denying ordinance not to name names, but something happened on 27 June 2007. That something virtually ensured that the party was doomed at the forthcoming election…”

Is Rentoul being unfair. Was Brown always doomed to defeat or are we, even at this stage, being premature?

On the face of it the polling numbers point to defeat - but they are better for Labour than they were in mid-September 2008 just before the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Events could still intervene and prevent the seemingly inevitable progress of Mr. Cameron towards Downing Street. It is possible that he’s squeezed out of an overall majority but very few pundits are suggesting that Labour could end up as top dogs.

Labour strategists are keen to point to 1992 when John Major apparently came from certain defeat to win by an overall vote margin of nearly 8%. But Major was in a vastly better position than Brown is today. The December 1991 polls had the Tories hovering around 40% - a huge difference compared with Labour’s current standings.

The polling thresholds for me are the Conservatives at 37% and Labour at 32%. If most of the firms get into that range then maybe Brown could pull off a Houdini act.

This is my last post of 2009. Let’s see what the new year brings.

Mike Smithson

New Statesman

What do we make of Kellner’s assessments?

There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes.

Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars.

“The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but this now looks like an outlier. Apart from a brief rise in Labour’s support in the days following the pre-Budget report, most polls have shown the Tory lead remaining in double figures..”

“They need an 11-point lead to secure an overall majority.”“That figure assumes that the national swing is reflected in the marginal seats the Tories are targeting. There is some evidence - such as a recent YouGov/Telegraph poll in northern Labour marginals - that the Tories will achieve a higher swing in these seats. Why? Tactical anti-Tory voting, which has benefited Labour in key seats over the past three elections, may start to unwind. If the Tories secure a 9-point lead, they will probably achieve an overall majority…..”

“Governments normally gain ground as general elections approach.” “This used to be true, but not for the past 20 years. The picture is complicated by the way all the polls overstated Labour’s support in 1992, and most did in 1997 and 2001. If we correct the data to allow for the polls’ errors, we find that there was no signi­ficant government recovery ahead of the last four general elections….”

“If Britain’s economy is seen to start growing again, this could help Labour further.” “This must be one of the party’s great hopes… But we should be cautious. The economy did remarkably well between 1993 and 1997, yet this did little to help the reputation of John Major’s troubled government, which had been shot to pieces by the events of Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992. Labour, likewise, will be burdened at the coming election by the vast Budget deficit and memories of last winter’s sharp recession. I expect economic recovery to help Labour a little, but not much.”

It’s that last judgement that is the most controversial - certainly within Labour ranks. But as I always remind people John Major’s government was leading on “the economy” in the final ICM polls before the 1997 general election - and we all know what happened.

Unless something happens that totally changes the agenda it’s hard to see anything other than David Cameron entering Downing Street.

Mike Smithson

whatgas.com

How electorally sensitive is the price of petrol?

The above chart shows the average pump price for standard unleaded petrol over the past three years and one thing is striking - the high point in price in July 2008 coincided with the Tories achieving their best poll shares since the 1980s.

The price dropped sharply in the second half of last year and reached a low point in December at about the same time as most polls were pointing to a big closing of the gap with ComRes having it down to one point and ICM four points

So how critical in terms of votes is the price of petrol and what could be the impact if unleaded moves back to July 2008 levels or even worse?

A secondary issue is whether all constituencies are affected equally or are the English middle-sized towns, where many of the marginals are, going to be hit more. For it’s in these places where public transport can be very limited and where the motor car is much more important.

With several papers reporting this morning that petrol could rise to £1.25 a litre then changes in the above chart could be a key election predictor.

Mike Smithson