Why doesn’t Gord sound convincing about the election?
January 5th, 2009
Would a bit more frankness help his position?
It’s inevitable, I suppose, given the total cock-up in Labour’s communications ahead of the election that never was in October 2007, that Brown is going to be pressed about the date whenever he submits himself to an interview.
This came up in the latest Andrew Marr interview and it will come up time and time again. So why doesn’t he make an effort to sound convincing?
For perhaps the most damaging feature of the October 2007 debacle was his refusal to accept that the apparent change of mind had anything to do with the opinion polls. He just looked shifty and Cameron exploited that brilliantly.
Surely everybody would accept that a Prime Minister who believes that what he/she is doing is good for the country will want to continue in the role and for the party to be re-elected. And as we near the end of the fourth year of a parliament there’s bound to be increasing speculation and, of course, he/she will be scrutinising every new poll for possible indications.
So why not just say so in so many terms? Why get into the form of words and contortions that seemed to afflict Brown yesterday? It simply doesn’t make sense.
This, of course, is going to explode if a voting intention survey from one of the mainstream pollsters has Labour equal or even ahead. Brown Central needs to get its thinking cap on.
MessageSpace Advertising
Dai-ichi.
Because he’s a spineless liar.
Eight hundred and ninety-seven thousand three hundred and eighty-second
There was something in his voice that was telling me “don’t be too sure”, arousing my suspicions I have never felt before, but of all the things he was ever planning for, this was the last thing on my mind.
Why doesn’t Gord sound convincing about the election?
Because he’s a lying toerag.
Rule no 1 Never trust anything Gordon Brown says. His body language is a complete giveaway. In any event he has dissembled so often, its not that hard for voters not to trust him.
As I posted before “the last thing on my mind” and “not the first thing on my mind”, both being constructions he has used, both surely mean “I’ll go for one if the omens look good enough”. He is probably consulting the haruspices at this very moment.
Why get into the form of words and contortions that seemed to afflict Brown yesterday?
I think he realises that (a) he’s probably the most partisan politician of recent times and (b) he shouldn’t look it.
He’s trying to look nonpartisan, and rejecting opinion polls is part of that.
What he doesn’t seem to realise is that we can see right through him.
Because he doesn’t sound convincing about anything.
8 - agree 100%
“he/she will be scrutinising every new poll for possible indications…So why not just say so in so many terms?”
In 2007, when Brown had that slip of paper reminding him to say “of course I’ve looked at the polls” even that went further than many of his predecessors. The likes of Margaret Thatcher and John Major used to test credulity by implying they never even looked at polls, trotting out the tedious line “the only poll that counts is on polling day”.
Ed 326 from the previous thread: Having 100% bed occupancy is an efficient use of beds, but only as a very narrow definition. The knock on effects are not good, as I said at 308. Cancelled operations, patients in the wrong place etc. Having lots of beds empty at quiet times isn’t great, but given that the winter surge will happen every year there needs to be some way of coping with it. Given that wards take some tim to build then we do need spare capacity. You don’t see Tescos having just enough checkouts to cope with demand at 7am on a wet August Tuesday do you?
11. all the knock on effects you describe are ones of chaotic organisation. it is perfectly possible to have all beds full all the time but still clean, do operations, get patients in the right place, etc.
Sorry to go O/T- but I’d thought I would reposte Robert of Sheffield’s anthropological summary which I found interesting and was somewhat wasted at the end of the thread.
“324 By the actual neolithic, 10 000BC onwards, we definitely weren’t in stasis. Before that, it’s debatable whether we were in the americas at all.
Anatomically modern humans appear somewhere around 50-70,000 BC. What happened before then is of limited relevance to humans, but there appears to have been very slow change, rather than stasis, and pretty low population densities. Language is essentially undatable - we know the Neanderthals would have had a restricted vocal range while the oldest language families are traceable to 6-10 kYr BP - but a reasonable guess is that it originated at the same time as modern humans.
Between 50 kYr BP and 10 kYr BP, there was slow but steady progress, and steadily increasing population densities in favourable areas. Around 5,000 years ago, populations were high enough to cross some threshold, and people switched to agriculture, which then allowed much swifter population increases.
The way it seems to work is that hunter gatherer populations steadily grow - despite constant internal violence - until they exceed the carrying capacity of the land, whereupon some tribes invent farming, though this is a simplification. Among other things, there are several steps to full-blown farming.
Consider too, a small population with zero average growth is likely to random walk its way to oblivion. To survive in the long term, the culture has to be biased towards steady growth, ruling out the possibility of stasis.
A disclaimer - I’m not an anthropologist, just a well informed M.A”.
Robert of Sheffield- 324
12. If you can see the future, and build wards and then demolish them instantaneously, then yes that is possible. Lots of people are ill in the winter, fewer in the summer. No-one can predict in advance how many people are going to need to be in hospital at any one time to the accuracy your system requires (ie knowing exact numbers several years ahead)
To take an example, the gastroenterology ward is full, because in Ed world hospital it has to be. Another patient who needs to be on that ward is admitted. Where do they go? Into the camp bed in the corner, onto the wrong ward, or just left in the substitute A+E?
12 I think what you seem to be ignoring is that reality is a chaotic organisation.
I’m not sure it’s possible to find a formulation that doesn’t lend itself to speculation, unless you’re prepared to make an absolute commitment. The form of words you suggest would prompt a slew of reports on the lines of “Brown admits considering 2009 election”, and really we don’t want to go there again. The reality is undoubtedly that at present an early election doesn’t look sensible, so he’s not currently considering it. If we suddenly get a significant poll lead, we’d have been silly to rule it out altogether.
Agree with Gasman on beds. I’ve discussed it in some detail with the local hospital trust. The theory is that 85% occupancy is optimal for keeping people pretty busy but not having to struggle with major flu outbreaks or simply random fluctuations. However, you can do 90% and reduce waiting lists more quickly without having very many forced cancellations. Anything much over 90% risks frequent cancellations due to even small surges.
Going off thread (slightly) I was struck yesterday watching Frost/Nixon just how similar Brown is to Nixon.
Every time Brown doesn’t give a straight answer he appears calculating which means pretty much all of the time.
Meanwhile, the will-he-won’t-he Clarke saga continues:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/4107340/David-Cameron-faces-revolt-over-moves-to-bring-back-Ken-Clarke.html
“Reality is a chaotic organisation”
Reality is counter-revolutionary!
Reality has a liberal bias!
Do not adjust your brain — there is a fault with reality!
18. Overweight pensioner who smokes and drinks ? Don’t give him a long term contract…
18. NPMP.
“David Cameron is facing a growing Shadow Cabinet revolt over plans to bring back Ken Clarke to the Tory front line. ”
But not a shred of evidence is provided that Cameron has any such plans.
14. no, that is what waiting lists are for. you are talking about illness as though people are either dying and need to be admitted, or are not. in reality, it is possible to defer most operations, and it is possible to bring forward non-urgent ones to fill beds
18. Is it just me, or do you get the slight impression the Telegraph is not entirely neutral on this issue?
re 12 absolute rubbish
16 “The reality is undoubtedly that at present an early election doesn’t look sensible, so he’s not currently considering it. If we suddenly get a significant poll lead, we’d have been silly to rule it out altogether.”
That’s silly. To decide that an early election doesn’t look sensible, the proposition must have been considered.
What’s wrong with saying “I’m busy getting on with the job and doing whatever it takes. What is clearly needed is for a continued Labour government to ensure the country can emerge stronger from this downturn. Once we are within a year from the end of the Parliament it is common for Prime Ministers to ask for a dissolution, and I cannot rule out doing so if the circumstances look right”
Which would be uncannily close to the truth… oh, I see the problem there. That’s one thing he did learn from Blair.
re 16 Nick P it’s quite simple. Brown could have said “I will not call an election this year, it will be held in May (or even Spring if he wanted to keep some wriggle room) next year”. Instead we get nonsense about “last thing on my mind”. Real people do not speak like this. Politicians can only moan about endless press speculation because they refuse to give a straight answer to a straight question. Such dissembling is injurious to the body politic.
22 But waiting lists are for non-urgent and elective surgical procedures. There’s only a certain extent to which you can use them to keep beds available for emergency, illness etc, as sick people shouldn’t be in empty beds on surgical wards where people are, basically, healthy. I hate to agree with NP, but he sounds about right with his 85-90% occupancy rate.
(Actually I’m not quite sure how you do provide for a flu outbreak but I’m sure someone who knows what they are talking about will come along shortly…)
re 22 of course it is, but the sole determinant in Labour’s NHS is how long you have been on the waiting list which means that you are not treating the right patient at the right time, and never can be.
23 Surely not!
The Telegraph is just stirring, as is Palmer. Heffer and Co have it in for Cameron as he’s chosen to ignore their pitiful advice. Good.
“Brown Central needs to get its thinking cap on.”
I think complete Head-Covers with eye-slits are the chosen mode of attire in the bunker.
27. the 85-90% is as close as the NHS will get to full occupancy because it is so badly mismanaged at every level. but the idea is the same. a fixed number of beds, fill them as much as possible.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged to create at least 100,000 new jobs through a £10 billion investment on infrastructure, in a newspaper interview (with the Mirror) published on Monday (22 Dec 2008).”
13 days later:
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged Sunday (4 Jan 2009) to create 100,000 jobs through a public works program and said he would press banks to resume normal lending as Britain faces its sharpest economic downturn in decades.”
Same 100,000 - or is this now 200,000?
What is a Brown pledge actually worth in the real world?
12 Utter rubbish - have you ever tried doing something as complex and unpredictable as that. Is “ed’ editor? Or are you Superman? Just asking.
14.A rare quiet summer weekend with empty beds when that medical or surgical ward was not receiving was good for the ward and the staff. It allowed us more time to spend with the patients we had in longer term too.
re 27 you cope with planning exercises beforehand, keeping an eye of the DOH’s estimates for ‘flu activity, opening up any spare capacity (which ed probably thinks means just flicking a duster around a monthballed ward), moving people from non-clinical to clinical posts temporarily, discharging anyone who is capable of being discharged, and cancelling elective operations.
24 Snap!
12.”11. all the knock on effects you describe are ones of chaotic organisation. it is perfectly possible to have all beds full all the time but still clean, do operations, get patients in the right place, etc.”
Ed, you don’t have a clue do you?
32, he’s also pledged to banish unemployment, waiting lists, deaths in Afghanistan and mould on cheese left for too long (except the sort of cheese that is meant to be mouldy).
Speaking of cheese, if Brown were cheese he’d be Corsican maggot cheese.
A pledge like that is daft, because even if it worked unemployment would still go up by a large degree. When 2-3m are unemployed standing up and proclaiming to have created jobs won’t be greeted with unmitigated admiration.
32. Will these be jobs for white british people only ?
23.Red Meteor, the Telegragh gets it wrong more than it gets it right when it comes to all matters concerning the Tories. And remember, these days its either a Labour love in or UKIP united, depending which journalist is blethering on about them. On Ken Clarke, the Labour luvvies would love to see a row whipped up about him, while he would be a red flag to those that lean towards UKIP.
But, like a few other old grey beards, he is having a bit of a renaissance within the party despite his views on Europe.
37. misunderstood. the confusion is between a theoretical efficient system and the NHS as it stands. i appreciate that for those ‘on the front line’ it is hard to accept that some of the problems would in fact be easy to solve if they were addressed properly.
GO on Brown the junkie
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23611294-details/To+get+Britain+back+on+its+feet%2C+we+must+kick+this+addiction+to+debt/article.do
“Speaking of cheese, if Brown were cheese he’d be Corsican maggot cheese.”
There are worse kinds of ‘cheese’.
39. I never realised there were so many unlagged lofts.
18. NPMP I see you did indeed venture in to the comfortable world of those rabid Telegraph folk - What did you make of their editorial on your man or was that missed whilst focusing on the Tory front bench machinations?
Will Labour’s loft-laggers also be trained to install RIPA listening devices?
32.Mirthios, read Fraser Nelson’s article on the Coffee House blog.
Another Brown job
“Will anyone take Gordon Brown’s claim to create up to 100,000 jobs seriously? As a statistician will tell you, “up to” includes the number zero. And as any economist will tell you, government can’t create jobs. The best it can do is move jobs, from the private to the public sector via tax – or from the future to the present, via debt. And in this case, I suspect it’s all a hoax anyway. Sure, Brown can hire some builders to renovate schools. But first of all, how many of his 100,000 were going to be hired by the state anyway? And of those who weren’t, can he be so sure they were all otherwise heading for the dole queue? It’s all a nonsense designed purely to enable him to trot out the line “we are creating 100,000 new jobs while the Tories would do nothing”. For Brown’s plan to work, no one must challenge his figures. And I suspect no one will.
It’s fairly easy to tell that he’s fibbing. Each month, the Treasury asks a large number of independent forecasters of solid repute for their unemployment forecasts, and publishes the results. Their December forecast was for claimant unemployment to surge from 1.05m to 1.6m by the final quarter of this year. How many of them will downgrade, as a result of Brown’s claim? I suspect as many as upgraded their economic growth forecasts to account for his fiscal stimulus: that is to say, none. Brown’s utterings are regarded as economically irrelevant, taken seriously only in the fantasy world of Westminster. How lucky he is that politicians’ figures are never audited or checked, and that they are held to a far lower standard of accuracy than the City firms he is so fond of chastising.
PS Brown also tells the Observer he wants to help “everybody who is genuinely trying to pay their mortgage back”. So I assume as a matter of urgency he will tomorrow instruct the state-owned Northern Rock to stop charging penalty rates of interest to the 200,000 of its mortgage holders too poor to get another deal?”
42. So GO thinks debt is bad and we need to reduce it sharpish, except of course for the £50bn of debt he wants the state to guarantee to make sure it is leant out as quickly as possible.
47. cutting analysis: “will anyone take these figures seriously?…no one must challenge his figures, and i suspect noone will”.
what does this mean?
I see Robin (the Yokel) Page has a blog on the Mail, that’ll be fun.
http://pageblog.dailymail.co.uk/
ChristinaD, you seem to be having a bit of difficulty with some of our regular Tory die-hards, who always put dogma before reality.
Of course (from their point of view) the NHS is inefficient unless hospital beds are 100% occupied. Therefore it should be sold off to the private sector as soon as possible. QED.
51. Don Chidd.
Erm, you what?
49.Ed, it means that Brown has been getting away with claiming dodgy figures in speeches etc for years, unchallenged.
One of the only times he got caught out big, was that stupid stunt whereby he rushed off to Iraq in the middle of the Conservative Conference, and threw out a totally misleading troop withdrawal figure so he had something to grab the headlines with. He has been doing stunts like this for as long as I can remember, and more often than not, he gets away with it.
This headline grabbing 100,000 jobs claim is a Brownie classic, and when it doesn’t materialise, who will turn that into a headline?
51.???
50. interesting… apparently “getting in touch with real people” involves banging on about europe ad nauseam.
47 - this is so true about Northern Rock. they are really penalising their customers, and if any of them dare to try and leave, take their mortagage away, but leave an unsecured loan with NR , they raise the interest rate on that to SVR + 5% - which means the interest is over 10% on a loan previously on at around 5% . Shameless profiteering from the nationalised bank which can cost hard pushed people hundreds of pounds. Don’t hear much from cretin Brown about the behaviour of his own bank. scandalous.
48 More disinformation. You clearly don’t understand the concept behind the debt guarantee scheme - do some more research Hoppy.
Nick P you have (perhaps inadvertantly) come up with the almost perfect ‘honest’ answer that Brown *could* have used:
“The reality is undoubtedly that at present an early election doesn’t look sensible, so I’m not currently considering it. If we suddenly get a huge poll lead, I’d be superhuman if I didn’t think about it at that point.”
But the fact that he can’t use ‘human’ language like this is one more reason why whenever he chooses to go to the polls he will lose.
re 38 perhaps Gordon and ed could get together and then with their special talents we’d have no unemployed as well as new patients being slipped into beds as the old ones are dragged out feet first.
53. as do most politicians. a real bugbear of mine. let’s be honest - even the accurate statistics they come up with are usually out of context or used entirely disingenuously.
however, the quoted article is 100% self-contradictory.
Planet Hollywood in administration.
57. I good, I’m glad I’ve misuderstood it. I had mistakenly thought that the Loan guarantee scheme was about ensuring loans got paid to firms that needed them.
If you say I’ve got it wrong, I’m happy to accept you assurance that the Loan guarantee scheme won’t lead to incurring any debt. Cause as George says, debts an addiction we need to kick.
48.”42. So GO thinks debt is bad and we need to reduce it sharpish, except of course for the £50bn of debt he wants the state to guarantee to make sure it is leant out as quickly as possible.”
Fraser Nelson on Cameron’s speech today, at the Coffee House Blog.
Cameron’s plans crash into Brown’s debt mountain
“Like James, I applauded Cameron’s tax-cutting plan - the right cut, in the right direction, for the right people. But there is one slight hitch. It is promised only if there’s an election this year. The 2009-10 budget starts in April, by which time Cameron probably wont be in power. If there’s an election next year, as is more likely, then the plan will not materialise because there won’t be the money. All these headlines that he hopes to generate will be for nothing.
The Tories don’t say so in terms. But I asked Cameron afterwards if his tax cut offer is valid in 2010-11 when he’s more likely to be in power - and he answered that he can’t tell what the public finances will look like by then. That sounded like a ‘no’ to me.
The reason is that Brown would increase spending by 2 percent in 2009-10, which the Tories would halve and, therefore, do the tax cut. They can’t do this from April 2010-14 when the average spending penciled in is just 1.2 percent. And as Cameron himself said in the press conferece, a “1 percent increase in spending sounds reasonable to me”. Given that he wants to increase health, international development and school spending it will be incredibly tight.
All this isn’t a criticism of Cameron: it’s testimony to the mess Brown has left him in. Any British Prime Minister will from 2010 have only two choices: cut real-terms spending, or cut debt. There just isn’t a third way.”
Surely the loan guarantee scheme would exist to give loans that normal commercial banks would not touch with the proverbial. If they go wrong the government “guarantee” would pay the bank back. As most of them will go bad the government will have to pay up which would increase debt.
Or have I missed something?
63. So this policy Cameron has announced, he’s saying he wouldn’t implement if elected in 2010? Seems like a rather odd sort of promise to make. I mean, won’t people be expecting it to be part of any future Tory manifesto now?
So its Brown relaunch number 348347, although it seems that Brown and Co has learned that when you are having a relaunch, you dont tell the press “Oh by the way, don’t call it a relaunch”.
Some stupid story yesterday about job creation, all just to make it look like Labour are “Doing something”, like pouring petrol onto a car thats on fire. Of course, these jobs will never materialize, but the press wont care. They like to be spoon fed Labour spin.
PS Is it me or did Brown have 10 times more make up in his Andrew Marr interview? Either that or 10 times more light shining on his face. And when the hell is he going to do an interview that is slightly more tough than the magnificence that is Andrew Marr?
59.And lets hope the patients on either side don’t suddenly need a sick bowl or the loo.
65, could be worse. He isn’t announcing a policy in his manifesto and then doing the opposite. Tuition fees, Lisbon referendum etc.
I wonder if it’ll figure in his calls for an election. “Give the people the chance to elect us before you bugger things up even more and this policy becomes unaffordable” or suchlike.
64 You’ve missed something.
65.Nice try Hopi.
58 - That response is totally untenable, Marcus, and DC certainly wouldn’t use it in a similar position.
It is an unwritten rule that you have to argue that you are timing the election for the convenience and benefit of the nation, not for your own ends. It isn’t true and never has been. But you can’t ride both horses - you can’t say, “I’ll do it at the best time for the nation - unless the polls look bl00dy brilliant for me in which case screw the national interest.”
There should of course be fixed terms to bring an end to the charade.
65,
he could always put it in the manifesto and then go back on it, using one from your playbook
71, wouldn’t fixed terms end up creating far lengthier (and therefore costlier) campaigns?
64. Yes, except that the way i think it’s intended to be structured is that the Government “sells” the insurance as part of the loan.
To simplofy, say you were takin out a 100 million loan, the Government would offer to gurantee half of that for (say) an extra million, which the bank would presumably pass on. So you’d end up borrowing 101 million from the bank.
If the loan defaulted, the Government would have a £50million liability to the bank.
64. Icarus: Or have I missed something?
The logical flaw in your argument is contained in the phrase As most of them will go bad. HTH.
There is a theory here that Labour will force an election in Scotland in early 2009 (they can by voting down the SNP budget)and then depending on outcome will judge whther to do a UK one in June along with the Euros.
73 - Not really. We are in a perpetual state of campaigning as it is. First we all thought it would be Autumn 2007, then we all thought Spring 2009, now we mostly think Spring 2010. And we all spend (or would like to if we had the Cashcroft billions) as if each date is the end of the “fixed” term.
Of course, the separate question is whether you impose annual limits on the national and local parties to avoid the massive spending in the six months leading up to these arbitrary deadlines (with relatively modest spending in actual fact in the final few weeks due to the limit on campaign spending).
68/72. Brilliant ripostes re referendums. Shame it’s got nothing to do with the point.
70. Let’s assume the Election in 2010- Won’t it be a _tiny_ bit odd if this promise to cut taxes for savers isn’t in the manifesto?
Or should this promise be added to “a Grammar stream in Every School”, “No reform to NHS structures”, “Wisconsin style Welfare reform”, “reduction of regulation in finacial services” and sundry others in the “ah, we didn’t quite mean that one” manifesto?
76. Wouldn’t they need to get the Tories and Lib Dems onside to do that, though? Hard to see why either would agree…
62 Put simply credit guarantees do not relate to loans, but are a form of insurance covering payments between companies for goods or services provided. A properly administered scheme will cost considerably less than any of Browns current bail out plans.
76 - Even if they could engineer it, why do it when it would presumably drive up SNP turnout to Labour’s disadvantage?
71. fixed terms aren’t very good either though.
best solution is what we have now, but ignore all the hype until an election is actually called.
78. well it’s hard to respond to a point which is your opinion about a hypothetical situation. glad you agree with fraser’s take tho…
76
Scottish Parliament rules require that at least two thirds of MSPs vote in favour of a dissolution of Parliament, before an extraordinary general election can be held.
So that would require all of Labour, all of the LibDems and Tories and some of the SNP members to vote for the suspension of parliament before any election could happen.
Not distinctly likely in the least, and if it did happen, I couldn’t really see Labour coming back stronger in the Scottish Parliament after the event.
82 - Oops, sorry, misread your post. You mean as a trial run. Yes, there is some logic in it. It would put Lib Dems and Tories in a hard position as you can hardly oppose an election when you are in opposition.
80. and what use is free insurance that isn’t backed up by any cash?
they need to put (hypothetical!) money where their mouth is on this one.
65
Give up Hopi.
You refused last year to recognise we’d have a recession so your qualifications to talk on matters economic are as good as Gordon Brown’s.
78 What are the interest rates going to be in May 2010? 0%? 1%? 2%? 3%?…
What’s the inflation rate going to be? What’s the growth rate going to be?
According o the Treasury, only weeks ago. the recovery starts in less than 6 months with a rapid rebound achieving growth in GDP of between 1.5% and 2% in 2010. That was without any further measures. That looks unlikely now so why would Cameron decide in January 2009 what will be definite tax policies in June 2010 as not even HMG has the least idea of what’s going on.
Judging by the arrival of the Labour bloggers in force Gordo is obviously rattled that Cammo’s got the headlines today:)
83 This is a betting site, so that would rather defeat the point, wouldn’t it?
88. do you disregard the views of everyone who said there would be no recession last year?
James at 78. The thing is strong politicians can and do speak plainly. It’s risky, if course, but it works because voters love it. If you aren’t going to give a straight answer, at least tell the viewer/listener you aren’t and oddly, that will do.
“I’m not going to tell you that live on air, am I?” is a great response.
Blair was brilliant at this, so was Mrs Thatcher. Tony Benn, Ken Livingstone, Ken Clarke and occasionally William Hague are all up there. Ronnie Reagan was probably the best in modern times.
Brown just hasn’t got enough self confidence to do it, and instead wriggles (badly). Michael Howard was famously bad, and the worst ever is Geoff Hoon. These people end up sounding like lawyers in court, people hate it and so do journalists.
Iggy Pop’s got a gig advertising online car insur*nce.
Is nothing sacred any more?
91. good point. ignore the hype and take in the facts.
either way fixed terms are rubbish, and have less betting opportunities.
94 No. Where have you been?
92. On matters economic that seems a good idea, as anyone who said so is clearly clueless.
95 Fair point, I agree with that.
Actually Cameron could adopt Gordonspeak
“It is right that, in the current period of time, we extend a helping hand to those hardest hit by abolishing tax on savings for all basic rate taxpayers, not walking on the other side as others would have us do.”
That sounds active, supportive and period of time is open ended enough to be meaningless as Gordonspeak usually is.
88. What, ten years as Chancellor of the Exchequer? I’ll settle for those qualifications any day!
Tell you what, since you’re into the power of prognostication, could you tell me why Cameron and Osborne decided to pledge to match Labours spending plans pound for pound last year? It’s almost like they didn’t think public sector debt was that significant an issue back then.
81. “Useless to most firms due to the uncompetitive cost”.
Credit at a premium is potentially better than no credit at all.
It is the reduction of available credit that is hurting business, the cost is a secondary issue, and one that is much easier to deal with.
To use a car analogy, if you run out of petrol you don’t really care how much it costs to fill up a petrol can to get you home.
I’ve not read the proposals in detail, but it principal such a scheme seems like a better use of funds than the VAT cut which was utterly swamped by Christmas discounting in the shops.
@100:
You spent ten years as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Hopi, do you agree with Tony Blair’s assessment that the ten years of growth were “probably luck”?
Betting tip of the day, year of Brown to leave office of PM in 2010 6/4 with William Hills.
Most likely it will involve a 2010 election and Labour losing, best prices of which are presently 1.67 and 1.44 (tories to win) which equals 2.4 (less than 6/4) Obviously though it doesnt discount Brown leaving before an election. Thoughts?
100. They are only slightly less useless than Brown and Darling.
Those who are criticising Brown for not giving a straight answer on when he will call an election are lining in Cloud Cuckoo Land.
When did any Prime Minister, 3 and a half years into the life of a parliament, ever give much more than the mandatory notice?
76- Even if Labour do well in Scotland, does it mean they will beat the tories in England?
Also should mention with betfair prices of the election date 2010 and tories to have most seats are shorter than the Hills prices above.
On Scotland - what would happen if Labour tried to force a dissolution, and the motion passed (with support from the three unionist parties) but failed to get the necessary 2/3 majority for a dissolution? Would the SNP government fall and Iain Gray be asked to form an administration? Or would the motion be ignored because it had defeated in its own terms, and the Salmond executive continue as if nothing had happened?
89. Indeed. Conditions vary and so do policies to meet them, that’s reasonable. But despite that, some things are written in stone in Tory policy. The Inheritence tax/Non-Doms, Council tax freeze, marriage tax support and NHS spending, for example. AFAIK, those are “definites” (happy to be corrected)
If Fraser’s right, this pledge doesn’t have that solidity, which strikes me as very odd, given how difficult it will be to walk back.
61-Didn’t they go borke in the early 1990s too?
85-So what is the position if the budget is not approved?
93 - But the honest response isn’t actually, “I’ll do it when it’s good for the country, but will go earlier if it suits me.” The real honest response is, “I’ll do it when it suits me and my party.” Your proposed formulation is just as dishonest as the “good of the nation” line that PMs always use.
85 - I think the alternative is a First Minister not being appointed within a certain time period. Salmond would have to resign if he had no budget (or one totally at variance to what he wanted) and there would be no prospect of a new one unless they proposed a budget acceptable to at least one other major party.
105 excluding Sir Alec and Sunny Jim?
103. Surely the better bet is for Brown to be first leader to leave any time at 5/4.
If he leaves it until 2010, the situation is going to be so dire, that Labour will not have a chance and it’s quite possible that they might ditch Brown and appoint a successor in order to minimise their losses.
105. Penny - still optimistic for your 2009 bets or have you bailed out at a loss ?
76 Mark that is nonsense as the Tories will almost certainly push through the SNP budget as they did last year. We have already secured a second year of frozen council tax, promises on police, drugs policies etc with more to follow to ensure Tory support for Salmon. Apart from anything Salmon having already offered support to David Cameron in a hung Westminster parliament, unlikely the Tories are going to risk that support for post GE.
Brown was utterly unconvincing yesterday but then he wouldnt know the truth if it jumped up and bit him. He told Andrew Marr that none of the ills of the UK economy are his fault. Can’t see Brown doing any better than Jim Callaghan but lets see if we get any defections from MPs standing down at the GE hoping to get a reward from DC post GE.
Interesting Brown intends to splurge billions on public works to boost employment in construction when Darling has specifically refused to allow the SNP government to do exactly that in Scotland to bring forward the spending on the 3rd Forth Bridge or the Glasgow Commonwealth Games 2014. Should win Labour lots of votes in Scotland- NOT!
Anyway speaking personally, I am looking forward to my mortgage being reduced this week to the lowest it has ever been thanks to my tracker mortgage and like many others 2009 will be a year of saving and paying off mortgage debt since Gordon Brown has all but destroyed my pension funds.
Happy New Year everyone.
102. I agree fundamentally with the right of politicians to make jokes without it being turned into an inane talking point… It’s one of the reasons I’m so happy about the election of Senator Al Franken (touches wood).
Speaking of which, David Mitchell and Charlie Brooker would be my nominations for British Al Frankens. Any other suggestions?
112. You are obviously a little older than my spring-chicken-like self (who am I kidding?) Ted.
Please enlighten me as to what sort of notice they gave.
From wiki (ie. consume with extreme care and consult other sources too):
“Under the Scotland Act 1998, ordinary general elections to the Scottish Parliament are held on the first Thursday in May every four years (1999, 2003, 2007 and so on). The date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.
If the Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved (with at least two-thirds of the Members voting in favour), or if the Parliament fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within certain time limits, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.
No extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general elections would be in addition to ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case they supplant it. The subsequent ordinary general election reverts to the first Thursday in May, a multiple of four years after 1999 (i.e., 5 May 2011, 7 May 2015, etc).”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
@116:
Stewart Lee.
113. Still would be leaving in 2010 in that case!
97. large number of highly respected commentators are in there.
oh, and the stock market
115. There isn’t going to be a public works splurge north or south of the border. There is a plan to bring forward £2 billion of previously planned investment, that is all. And there is a very strong chance that won’t happen, on recent form (contract delays etc).
114. More than optimistic Ghost.. in fact I am still filling up at odds of 4/1 for an H1 election, with a saver on an H2 2009 election.
I simply cannot believe that Brown will go into a 2010 election with unemployment at over 3 million and on the back of a VAT hike.
“Stewart Lee.”
And Chris Morris.
65 Interest rates might be higher in 2010 in which case it won’t be necessary. If they are still low, it could still be done - but if there was no room to cut expenditure, then the tax would have to be raised in some other way.
119. Stewart Lee leads me to imagine the thought of a Chris Morris campiagn for Mayor of London. Even I would be tempted to break party lines for that.
@124:
Alas not. Chris Morris’s was one of the great satirists of our age, but his personal politics are a limp and embarrassing.
Robin Ince?
116.Jim Davidson
(just for coldstone)
116 - Do you mean who we would like to see as comedians turned politicians or who we might expect to see? Tony Robinson is obviously well known as a Labour man and has been touted as elected mayor of Bristol (if there ever is one) while people like Eddie Izzard and Jim Davidson (not sure he counts as a comedian) are well known political animals.
I would like to see Gervais do it as his David Brent character - think he would fit right in on either side of the House.
123. Can you believe that Brown would go early and give up 12 months of the levers of power just to maybe lose by less ?
Thats the scenario I can’t believe - Gordo acting for the party not himself.
@126:
This is why Stewart Lee would make an ace politician:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=4n-UGQcG3Jw
123. Where is 4/1 on H1 2009?
130 - spot on. you have summed up very pithily why I do not understand all those believing in a 2009 election.
re 88 don’t pick on Hopi, he has at least put his money where his mouth is.
132. Currently 3.2/1 on betfair - but has been 4/1 recently.
Will be 140/1 by June
@133:
Aw, come on. Hopi’s big enough and ugly enough to fight his own corner…
I have said repeatedly that there will be a GE in May 2009, for several month’s now.
I will narrow it further to thusday 7th or 14th of May. These dates will seperate the British elections from those of the EU by about a month.
One of the reasons that Brown will refrain from having these elections on the same date, is antipathy of voters for labour not having a referendem as promised.
117 Sir Alec specified his Government would last its full legal term in a speech sooner after taking over, Callaghan would have had to call one by October 79 and famously sang Waiting at the Church to rule out a 78 election. His Government was bought down in April 79, and no-one expected him to have chosen May/June of his own volition.
For once Brown is being honest - calling an election is not the first thing on his mind - calculating whether he can win the election is the first thing
129. Both, I suppose. Izzard is most likely as I think he’s even said he’d like to be an MEP. The mind boggles. I suppose Louise bagshawe is sort of a celeb too.
But I was more thinking of people who we’d like to see get involved who aren’t - One of the writers for “Peep show” used to be an MPs researcher - Jesse Armstrong used to work for Doug Henderson - so he might qualify, just cause Peep show is great.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcfour/thickofit/jesse-armstrong.shtml
“The Prime Minister will call a general election when he calculates he has the greatest chance of winning it.”
Why is this a controversial statement? Other than being unambiguously true, obviously.
June.
139. Izzard - how laughable.
another 10,000 likely job losses today , by my reckoning of firms that have announced administration. i understand another well known retailer will go to the wall tomorrow.
The biggest question about a GE as far as I am concerned is who is controlling the date. If its Mandy, its possible, if its Gordo, I doubt it. I agree with the levers of power scenario, Gordo’s thirst for it means that he wouldn’t call an election unless he knew for certain he was going to win. It’s hard to forsee such a scenario…..barring events………… Remember, Gordo doesn’t do courage, he has never faced an election that wasn’t a certainty, and I fully expect him to bottle it if its remotely in doubt.
136. Can you summarise your thinking to back up May 2009 ?
136. All too true, on both counts! (though thanks Chris for the support!)
and on that note I have to go and do a 24k run, in the interests of making me less big, but sadly no less ugly…
James - it’s not dishonest to say ‘I can’t answer that question’ what is dishonest is to pretend that as Prime Minsiter he won’t call an election at the best moment for his party.
Any politican with genuine conviction should be able to argue that the best course for the country is to elect his party, therefore picking an election timed for his own party’s advantage *is* the best course for the country.
I agree none of them have ever had the guts to do it, Mrs T came closest. It is a pity. We are desperate for straight talking, but so rarely get it.
144- It must be Gordo. He aint no Blair, Mandleson doesnt walk all over him.
Why should Brown commit himself to a general election date now or even discuss a general election?
147 - So really what you are saying is that Brown is behaving like any other PM. That’s how it seems to me too.
Posting Arrangements
I have just sent this email to the editor of Labour Matters.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Please note that I have unapproved the comment you posted at 4.36pm because we only accept contributions from individuals and do not allow names that are in themselves slogans. This should not have been allowed through.
I am very happy for you to post the same material as an individual.
Cheers,
Mike Smithson
145. Hi, Ghost.Three reasons:
1. I’ve alway’s thought that Labour can’t afford to wait till the last second in 2010.
2. February 2009 is to early for an election especially s this winter will have temperatures below normal most of the time; ergo May 2009 is rhe perfect date.
3. An Autumn election will also be too late for Labour, as unemployment will in all probability have passed 3 million.
152. Agree with 2 & 3 but not sure about 1.
What do you mean by “afford” ? 12 months in the hand rather than the bush and the “something turns up” factor is not insignificant.
152. But Gordon would have to be mad (yes I know I know) to call an election where he didn’t have a decent chance of winning. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas unless they think it will be a vegetarian Christmas!
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman on Depression 2.0 :
The fact is that recent economic numbers have been terrifying, not just in the United States but around the world. Manufacturing, in particular, is plunging everywhere. Banks aren’t lending; businesses and consumers aren’t spending. Let’s not mince words: This looks an awful lot like the beginning of a second Great Depression.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Intrade actually gives 30.3% chance for a Depression to actialise in 2009… :
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=647817
154. Well the conspiracy theory is that Labour wants to call an election now when there is a good chance that they could be the largest party in a hung parliament. If Cameron gets more MP’s then previous convention holds that he must have first crack at forming a government. The dream scenario for some in Labour is as we discussed on Saturday, do a deal with the Lib Dems, make Vince CoE and bring in PR and ensure permanent centre-left coalition. I don’t buy that myself, Brown is very tribal and partisan and I just can’t see him governing by coalition. Also there is only quite a narrow poll range which would give Labour the lead in a hung parliament and seats don’t always go according to the national shares. It would be very difficult to engineer such a result.
153 By 2010, Gordon is “all in”. “Events” could lose him an extra 50 seats and leave Labour in the position the Tories were in after their first two election defeats to New Labour i.e. no opposition worthy of the name.
Gordon now calculates every aspect of everything he does in terms of electoral advantage. Labour will be pissed off today woth the Cameron announcement because even though it has a limited shelf life, it will prove popular, show the Tories do indeed have answers - and close off a few more months in which Gordon could “go early”.
The Tories want this election as late as possible, for Gordon to to be personally attached by the voters to the horror of this recession, leaving them with more of the uptick when the UK does move into growth - and give them extra months to further de-toxify brand Tory.
156 Agreed. But being in a coalition is an awful lot worse than having an overall majority and so why would you throw away a majority early? In any case Gordon does not seem the coalition sort!
Osborne on Sky News claiming he comes from a manufacturing background.
Next up Paris Hilton stresses he Hotel experience and Peaches Geldof sings her greatest hits.
Man we need new polls!
159- And then Brown can tell us all about his “Religious” upbringing.
158. Exactly. This is a wet dream of many in the chattering classes but as you say Brown is too tribal and partisan to go for it. He hates the Lib Dems as much as he hates the Tories, just see how patronizing he is to Clegg at PMQ’s. He’ll cling on almost to the very end, May 6th 2010, in the hope that the economy improves.
Just done a Yougov voting intention poll…
159
Oh Tim, you really should get better lines from the dolly draper rebuttal unit. After yesterday, I am suprised anyone would give credence to anything you said.
162 Talking of last possible dates I thought it was May 2010 too but seem to remember some well informed sort, (presumably a poster here)saying that there was an extra month available for some reason and he could wait till June. Am I imagining things?
164 - Where is this rebuttal unit that you repetitively refer to?
165 - I guess the max length for a Parliament is five years. The campaign is after the Parliament, and could be dragged on for six weeks (as in 1992?).
There’s a hole in my high street, dear Gordon, dear Gordon!
Adams (childrenswear) 111 stores, 850 jobs
Woolworths (pic’n’mix) 800 stores 27,000 jobs
OfficersClub (Adult clothes) 150 stores, 900 jobs
MFI (Furniture) 111 stores, 1000+ jobs
Royal Worcester (China & Glass) 3 factories, 388 jobs
Waterford & Wedgewood (China & Glass) nx factories, 1000+ jobs
Whitteards (Coffee & Tea) 130 shops, 950 jobs
Zavvi (Music & DVD) 125 stores, 3,400 jobs
165 That line of thinking was that Brown could dissolve parliament in May and not need to have the election until before parliament returned after recess. Not sure if that is constitutional or not.
164 - It is rather tenuous to argue that “my dad woz a businessman so I knowz all about it” which is effectively the Osborne line. Perfectly respectable to say he works with senior businessmen every day and listens to and understands their concerns. But claiming some sort of bogus experience you just haven’t got is really lame.
@Tim
My rebuttual unit’s bigger than your rebuttal unit.
So squish.
163 - Let me guess…um, Conservative?
Nigel Clough tipped as new Derby manager - that Derby v Forest 4th round cup tie gets more lip-smacking by the day!
165 Bird
I remember that post. Not sure who it was but I think they were saying there is one date in the first week of June which is available/lawful etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
“Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715 as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, the next United Kingdom general election must be held on or before 3 June 2010, barring exceptional circumstances”
165. Yes the last legal date is June 3rd 2010. I’m plumping for May 6th because it’s the same day as the local elections that year and if Brown is clinging on with horrendous polls there will be an almighty massacre of Labour Cllrs. There probably wouldn’t be any campaigning machine left after that for the GE campaign!
Major went on the equivalent date in 1997 and something that was lost in all the attention given to Blair’s historic landslide was that quite perversely, the Tories did very well in the Shire council elections that day, regaining control of councils like Essex that they had lost in the 1993 meltdown. Perhaps if you give the voters a GE on the same day they’ll take their anger out on the government and let the Cllrs off the hook? Might be something for Labour to consider, their local government strength has been badly weakened over the last 5-6 years. If they suffer a bad defeat at the next GE then they will have to do as the Tories did after 1997 and begin to rebuild by getting back control of councils particularly in target seats.
165/169. The five year term of a parliament is from the first meeting to elect a Speaker (usually a week after the election) to dissolution, usually three weeks before an election. So the last possible election date is June 2010.
@172:
Bethnal Green and Bow’s a nominally safe Labour seat. It shouldn’t really matter in practice who I vote for.
170 - It was was a flaccid response to the question he feels uncomfortable answering.
The Sky interviewer asked
“When the voters look at you and Mr Cameron, how can they see anyone with experience of prudence and thrift”
he was completely stumped.
175 Thank you, kind sir.
Yeah baby! : Oil rises above $47 on Middle East tension
Who else bought it last month @ 40$ or so?
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/news/ap/finance_business/2009/Jan/05/oil_rises_above__47_on_middle_east_tension.html
Hey Petah dah Puntah — Did you follow my leads on American last week-end? I scored 3 on 3…
159.
“Osborne …. claiming he comes from a manufacturing background.”
I would think most of his political lines are heavily ‘manufactured’.
I am sure GideO is going to be all out for Chamereon’s new ‘frugal’ line. Crates of Krug for the yacht trips will in future e ordered in tens instead of dozens!
Attention anyone who wants to get paid to post to PBC: Draper now recruiting new Dollybots according to Guido.
Somebody tell Martin Day:
http://www.w4mp.org/html/personnel/jobs/disp_job.asp?ref=16926
182 — on American Football, that is…
182 — on American Football, that is…
173. Got to be a tough decision for Nigel. I’m sure he’d love to take Burton to the Football league, and they’re 13 points clear in the BlueSq (though Histon have games in hand)
On the other hand, how many other chances will he get at a “big” job. (Actually, the state Derby, Forest and Leicster are in, one of them seems to come up every year or so..)
184
I just went to look for that after Tim denied knowledge of the Dolly Draper rebuttal unit. I wonder if Tim is interviewing the candidates?
Right, defitely off for run now.. enough procastination!
114. And a very Guid Ne-er to you too Easterross.
185 well done, I lost on three of the four play off games! Thanks to all the last election date answers too
Tim, Wage Slave,
Experience of some line of business through family is not to be sneered at. My father was a firearms dealer. I used to talk to him quite alot about the gun trade and shot most weekends at ranges for years. I would like to think I know more than 99.9% of the population about firearms even though I’ve never sold one or made one. Wht is Osborne any different? If his dad chatted about business issues over breakfast then that would give Osborne about 100% more direct knowledge of business and manufacturing than Brown (son of a priest and no economic training whatsoever).
MODERATED
Do not make what could be defamatory comments please.
Your ability to publish instantly has been temporarily suspended. Posts will go into the moderation box before being published.
Mike Smithson
192 - Thats fine, but he was asked what he knew about prudence and thrift, not what he knew about manufacturing.
Mr Smithson / Morus - 193 looks like a straightforward libel by innuendo. I suggest you moderate it.
WS. Your hatred and contempt for Osborne and the Tories drips from every pore. Hatred can blind you to reason and knowledge. This is Brown’s failing too. He hates Osborne so much he can’t engage with him mentally. The IHT policy destruction that Osborne ruined the Labour poll lead with during the 2007 conference season must have come as a surprise - but only because Brown consistently underestimates his opponents. I’m looking forward to his pained final speech after losing the next election.
193. Pathetic.
194. Tim. No link in your mind between running a family business and prudence and thrift? I can tell no-one in your family has ever run a business.
That might reassure Krugman (see post 155):
Politico: Obama to Pelosi: Stimulus ‘can’t wait’
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=A7CBBABD-18FE-70B2-A8C9C52C1E3E17AC
198
Of course Gordo has run a business… UK PLC…. and has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy.
194 Well what does Gordon know about prudence and thrift - he earns £187K for God’s sake.
198,200,201 - All distractions.
Osborne needs to counter the charge that he and Cameron give an impression of inherited privilege.
Thats nothing to do with having run anything.
re 202 - What total rubbish Tim. Crewe & Nantwich showed what happens when Labour runs a campaign on that basis.
And how many privileged ministers are there in Brown’s cabinet? I think when I counted it was all but four.
You got to laugh when Labour start talking about prudence and thrift, as if they even understand what the words even mean. Even funnier was Hazel Blears pondering why the white working class think Labour have screwed them and the conclusion she reached was that they are misinformed.
Completely in clueless denial.
This originated on Guido’s websit, but in case you missed it, you may wish to avail yourself of this:
http://pizzaidf.org/
202. Tim. I do indeed agree that Cameron and Osborne could be politically exposed from an image of privilege, but only among voters of a certain inclination. I think you keep changing the subject though. It started as having no knowledge of manufacturing, then it was about prudence and thrift and now it seems to be about class war.
My original point was not to sneer at Osborne when he says exposure to the family business gave him some knowledge of manufacturing or prudence or thrift.
I could go on until I’m blue about why 7.62 NATO is not the same as .308 Winchester or how an MG42 and a Vickers were both muzzle boosted designs but had very different rates of fire.
I’m sure Osborne knows WAY more than you give him credit for about the challenges facing small business, including ‘Sound Money’, that very Tory phrase.
tim, you’re the only one going on about this. And you’re not going to vote Tory under any circumstances, I suspect. As Mike points out, many members of the current cabinet had privileged upbringings.
The questions for politicians are: Can you run the country? Do you have any good ideas? Everything else is irrelevant.
In any case, by they time they reach the shadow cabinet, all politicians are members of a self-serving well-paid elite out of touch with hoi polloi.
& 202. The Labour campaign against the background of Boris Johnson was hardly successful.
Check out Harriet - I think she’s related to Cameron.
207 - I agree with you.
I was just pointing out Osbornes sensitivity on the issue.
I suspect he’s seen some polling.
208 - Then why do you think they’re so sensitive about the Bullingdon photos for instance.
If a Labour Mayor of London,Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor had all belonged to the same Pigeon Fanciers society in Gateshead, do you think they’d want the photos censored?
205. I’ve already sent my order. I shan’t be availing myself of http://www.kebabs4hamas.com though.
“Alas not. Chris Morris’s was one of the great satirists of our age, but his personal politics are a limp and embarrassing.”
Didn’t know he was on the record, where has he done interviews and the like about it? What are his politics anyway?
168. There’s a hole in my high street continued - to add to your list:
The Pier - 48 stores in the UK, 400 jobs
210 You bet they would!
214 - Actually, thinking about it you may be right!
210/214. No-one wants to be branded as pigeon enthusiasts.
Now, if they were Golfer’s……………………….
216 And thank God the 2009 Golfing season starts on thursday. Lol
210. Come to think of it there’s a brave few photos of me from my uni days that if I were an aspiring politician would be worth a lot of money to the tabloids!!
206.
“Sound Money’, that very Tory phrase.”
Sounds of MONEYYY!!! LOADSAMONEYYYY!!! I’ve got LOOADSS!! (or at least my dad has)
The last Tory leader who really believed in sound money was Alec Douglas Home.
It’s the rocking horse photo that I want to see!
219
Just google it, There are any number of them, now they might have been photoshopped. Who knows…
182 Hi Philippe, mon vieux.
No I didn’t back them but I did see them. Delighted for you, as I would be for any successful punter.
To be honest, I’ve been on easy street since Nov 4th. Had a hard time drinking all that champagne I bought on Nov 5th. Won’t be around much till Feb either. I do about one month’s work a year and quite a bit of it comes up in the next few weeks. No rest for the wicked.
A bientot.
193.
I am at a lost to the potential for defamation Mike and would certainly not wish you/the site to be placed at any risk. My source is:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5244743.ece
Have we heard whether we’ll be getting a Populus poll in the next hour or so?
Polling News
I have been in touch with Populus and their January poll for the Times will be carried out next weekend - so we’ll see it a week tonight.
re several it does not require a two-thirds majority to precipitate a Scottish general election. The First Minister can lose a confidence vote by a simple majority - he must then resign (Scotland Act 1998 s45(2). Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor (s46(2)b and s46(3)a). If no election is made then the presiding officer will ask for parliament to be dissolved under s3(1)a
210.Tim, do you have any idea why Blair’s little club photo from Oxford doesn’t regularly appear in print. I saw it briefly once on Newsnight, and all was revealed…
225, cheers. Is it (and polls generally) made known around 8pm?
227. Is that the one where he looked like Mick Jagger?
Anyone who doubts the 1980s are back in fashion…
http://www.virginatlanticstillredhot.com/popup/tv-ad.html
All we need now is a Tory government
re 165 your not imagining Friday, 4th June 2010 is the last possible day. Campaigns can be dragged out to 17 days (Sats and Sun not included), no more and no less.
re 169 it isn’t.
229.Those silly boater hats, and Blair making a rude sign?
re 228 Morris Dancer have you seen the terrible news today? You’ll soon be extinct!
234, noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
234 We should run to their aid - and instigate the PB.com Morris Troupe. All the lefties on one side, the Tories on the other. And each wielding large pieces of wood.
Jump. Jump. “Thwack!”
For one night only…
225. Thanks Mike.
So I suppose we’ll get our first polls of 2009 this weekend (YouGov, ICM or ComRes?)
BBC: Tony Blair to be awarded the Medal of Freedom by George W. Bush.
Pass the sick bucket…..
238, will he wear it on his chest or will it be attached to his collar?
238 - The Anti Christ is about to be rewarded by Satan!
239 Blair is reported to spend most of his days in a track suit, at a loose end. Now, with a big shiny medal on his chest, he could become the new Jimmy Saville for our times.
“Tony, can you please fix it for me to stay in Number 10 for ever and ever. Or maybe you could just arrange to bomb the sh1t out of a small country, to let me win an election….Your bestest chum, Gordon.”
Comment 126 on NIck Robinson’s latest Pravda piece is worth putting here (it’s by Only jocking):
Nick
You mention the PM’s interview with Andrew Marr yesterday. During that and in other interviews he said
“I don’t want to sound arrogant, but 10 years ago I was making both speeches and proposals to sort out this failure of global regulation and I couldn’t persuade other countries after the Asian crisis of 1998 that it was necessary.”
I don’t know what he said then or if it was all words and no action in the face of the risks he had identified. It would be useful if you could provide details of his speeches, particularly those parts concerning his call for the sorting out of global regulation.
What I do know is what in his 2006 Mansion House speech - which was full of praise for The City and the bankers and boasted how he had resisted for calls for regulatory crackdown in favour of the Government’s light touch system. He said:
“Let me say I see no case for a European single regulator and will continue to reject such a proposal, just as we will resist the new and unnecessary proposals to harmonisation corporate taxation in Europe.”
Doesn’t sound to me much like a clarion call for greater coordination of global regulation.
Incidentally, that Mansion House speech is well worth a read if one wishes to gauge the very positive boom time attitude of Gordon Brown to global trading and fianance, the innovative/leading/dominant role played by the UK financial institutions, all facilitated by the Government. Compare this to his post-bust stance with UK in supplicant/victim role and our Government as blameless/helpless spectators, albeit with our bankers’ contributing to the problem via irresponsible behaviour - the behaviour formerly known as innovative.
Why don’t you dig out some of this stuff when reporting on the latest utterances of the Labour machine, and not just old Labour press releases in response to the latest Tory stuff ?
PPP POLL : Caroline KENNEDY :
Forty-four percent of the New Yorkers surveyed by Public Policy Polling say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy now than before her announcement that she would like to be a senator. Thirty-three percent say her campaign has made no difference to them, and 23 percent say they now have a more favorable opinion.
http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2009/01/05/daily10.html
239.Classic!
—-> “Respondents say by better than a 2-1 margin that they would prefer to see Attorney General Andrew Cuomo appointed to fill the seat now held by Hillary Clinton.”
“Fifty-eight percent say they would like to see Cuomo appointed to replace Clinton, while 27 percent prefer Kennedy.
Cuomo is favored by all three major political groups — 54 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 65 percent of Republicans.
A PPP survey conducted a month ago showed Kennedy with a large lead at that time, with 44 percent support, compared to 23 percent for Cuomo.”
Yeah baby!
246, got a bet on?
My bet against Kennedy might not be a loss after all. And if I win it, it will be a big win, for I laid C. Kennedy at an average of 77 …
.. I’m laying her since the end of December…
248, which means….?
See what you think of my thoughts on the collapse of Wedgewood today - http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com
.. she was not very expensive, but I did lay her a lot, repetitively, for small amounts…
252, alright. Well, I don’t really get it, but good luck anyway
241.
Tony,
We have a text from young Osama in North West Frontier province. Osama says can you fix it for him, Tony, to become the most popular man in the Indian subcontinent and Arab lands, by invading Iraq?
252. Fnarr fnarr
250 — … which means … that I short-sold her on intrade for more positions than I dare to reveal publicly @ an average of 7,7$.
If she’s not anointed, I make 7,7$ on each position (each contract, if you will); otherwise, it will cost me 2.3$ on each contract. It’s like laying her @ about 3 to 1.
251 - Wedgwood has been run disastrously since the Waterford Crystal takeover.
Hopefully the Pottery side will be split and sold seperately.
Why has Marf slimmed Gordon by about three stone? On TV yesterday it was obvious that he was virtually bursting out of his suit.
255, ah, I get you.
BACK IN THE USA
>>> Federal judge has granted 90-day extension to Patrick Fitzgerald to build case versus Governor Blagojevich.
>>> Coincidentially, Secretary of US Senate has refused to accept credentials of Roland Burris to be the new US Senator from Illinois; instead, his case will be referred to committee . . . and put on ice.
>>> Obama will nominate Leon Panetta as new head of the Central Intelligence Agency
>>> But Bill Richardson is NOT going to be the next Secrtary of Commerce (appointment that had a weird vib right from the get-go) due to fallout from ongoing grand jury invesigation of alleged “pay to play” by Richardson mega-donor in return for New Mexico state govt contracts.
>>>MN state canvassing board will declare Al Franken the winner of manditory recount for US Senate seat. BUT certification will be conditional pending outcome of pending election court contest. In meantime, the Burris sitation makes it highly unlikely that US Senate will seat Franken anytime in the near future.
256 - fair call! Rather like Royal Worcester was then
SSI — What d’you think about the new PPP poll on Cuomo taking the lead over C. Kennedy ?
Do you think it can influence the Governor’s decision?
260. Politicians balance the views of their activised base with the views of the less motivated wider public. He would have to be very foolish to go against both.
Short selling of financials to be allowed again:
‘The Financial Services Authority (FSA) is today proposing to extend its temporary disclosure regime for significant net short positions in the stocks of UK financial sector companies until 30 June 2009. Continuing to require disclosure will reduce the potential for abusive behaviour and disorderly markets. The FSA is not proposing to renew its ban on short selling of these stocks but is prepared to reintroduce the ban without consultation if necessary.’
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/05/50777/short-selling-ban-on-financials-to-end-fsa/
re 264. Join to Choose - your name format is now not allowed. Please could you find something that is not a slogan. Many thanks.
Was anyone here “in the know”?
BBC denies new Dr Who betting claim
4 hours ago
The BBC has denied any knowledge of suspicious betting activity over the identity of the new Doctor Who.
Bookmakers reduced odds on actor Matt Smith landing the role shortly before the announcement after a flurry of bets were made on the relatively unknown 26-year-old. Nearly seven million people saw him named as the 11th Time Lord, the youngest yet.
At bookmaker Paddy Power, which took £40,000 in total, odds on Smith fell from 33-1 to 10-1 in the run-up to the weekend’s announcement.
“For such an unknown name as Matt Smith to go from 33-1 to 10-1 suggests there were obviously people who did know,” Paddy Power spokesman Darren Haines said. “However it wasn’t widespread, so it wasn’t enough to set our alarm bells ringing, otherwise he would have crashed in as favourite.”
266, ooh, 33/1 would’ve been a nice return.
261 - The decline of the British Pottery industry is one of the worst examples of bad managemen and lack of design in the country.
No militant unions or high wages to blame, just sh~t quality men at the top.
268. The other half of the British disease.
During the run up to WWII, one of the designers at the Admiralty wanted to introduce longditudinal framing for destroyers - main structure runs along the ship, rather than accross it. Stronger, lighter etc.
The shipbuilders sent a delegation, half union and half management to try and get him fired. Apparently it wasn’t the traditional way, would upset things etc.
Fortunately they got told to get knotted. So, by the middle of the war we were building destroyers that were only a deade behind the times, not 20 years….
Given the failure of Royal Worcester and now Wedgewood what do people think of the Conservatives taking over Staffordshire County Council from Labour in June (they need to gain 4 seats I think)?
I can vouch that Mr Magnan has indeed mentioned this move a while back on here. Certainly the market has moved somewhat from when Kennedy seemed to be the anonited one as I’ve been watching it myself.
Still cannot find the first leader to go market that Our Genial Host tipped on the William Hill website, which is a shame since I had planned to have a punt on that one. Sporting then Politics, right?
Another thing going back over my unread RRS feeds I spotted that according to Iain Martin of the Telegraph the Conservatives think that it will be April or May 2010, April is currently 20:1 which looks good for a small bet as a hedge. Personally my main money is on June since I really think Gordon is going to cling on by his fingernails to the door frame of Number 10 until he is prized off with a crowbar. No way is he going to had over a solid majority this year for at best being the leader of an unstable coalition (assuming that he could himself remain leader).
268 - exactly right tim!
re 272, The William Hill political markets are usually only up during the day time. Check tomorrow.
243 - Very interesting poll, certainly not good for Caroline Kennedy’s prospects of winning the nod from Gov. David Patterson, to be appointed to replace Hilary Clinton as US Senator from New York.
Essentially CK has three arguments in her favor:
1. Money honey. That is, CK’s perceived ability to raise beaucoup bucks for the 2010 AND 2012 NY senate races. Yet personally have been wonding, does the hype about this really matched the reality? And on the flip side, am guessing that Andrew Cuomo would be prepared to go to CONSIDERABLE effort to raise the moolah.
2. Obama mama. Without question, the public endoresement by CK and Uncle Ted was a major plus for the Obama campaign at a very critical juncture. Yet the Kennedy imprimature was NOT a silver bullet, as the result of the California primary quickly proved. As for the personal & political linkage between Ted Kennedy and Barack Obama, methinks there is something to this BUT nowhere near as much as has been hyped by press & pundits. Not to mention that
a) Ted Kennedy is clearly at the end of his career; indeed it is truly amazing that he’s still battling, more power to his arm!; and
b) Whatever CK brings to the table at present it is NOT big-league political or policy smarts; and she’s now a LOT older than was Teddy when he was a callow youth, and even in babyboomerworld there is limited appeal to callow midlife crisis.
3. Camelot unforgot. The legend of JFK was, is and will always be an extremely pomminant & potent aspect of American mythology. Yet it does NOT hold that the Kennedy myth BY ITSELF will advance any Kennedy to any political office, even the heir presumptive. As with the Lincoln and Roosevelt families, the political and personal careers of the Kennedy clan has been marked more by failure than by success. Indeed, the senatoral success of Ted Kennedy as US Senator was in response to the failure of his presidential ambitions; before 1980 he was a pretty worthless as a US Senator (as opposed to a A-List electoral politico) just like his brothers before him. So IF Caroline is going to make it, she needs to do it one the basis of her own talents. Which so far appear very adequate for her previous roles (and far superior to anything yers truly can boast!) but underwhelming for her current challenge.
That said, IF Gov. Patterson does decide to appoint Caroline Kennedy, then my guess is she would do just fine, indeed above average. And unless the bottom falls out and/or there is severe backlash against Democrats, my guess is that CK could be reelected in 2010 and 2012 (if she really wants it that bad).
Question is, will she get the chance?
One other question personally have, when did she actually launch her “campaign”? If not last summer as soon as Obama clinched the nomination, then why not?
261/268 …..and lack of investment due to high interest rate policy of last 30 years. Wedgwood has been run by the Irish for years.
266
It didn’t take a genius to work out that Smith was going to be the one. As my sister - who doesn’t bet but does like Dr Who - pointed out today, the name Matt Smith was conspicuous by its absence right up until almost the day of the programme. Then suddenly as they were advertising the programme where they would reveal all this previously unmentioned actor appears. Why would they do that if he were not the one.
Pretty simple really.
re 175 I have now amended that Wikipedia article to give the correct date and add the reference to House of Commons research paper 07/31. See pp10-11, although as the paper makes it clear the Septennial Act 1715 has never been tested this way and the Meeting of Parliament Act 1694 would then come into play.
260. Interesting goings-on re Richardson. How long has this scandal/charge been floating about? Unless it’s very recent - and it doesn’t sound particularly so though I don’t know the details - it seems strange to me that Obama would have nominated someone who already had such a big question mark over him, and especially to an office where there would clearly have been a conflict of interest.
Still, it could have been worse. Richardson was a very credible potential running-mate to Hillary had she won the nomination (and a far from impossible one for Obama).
274. When I’ll be at work and unable to gamble! Oh well, good thing I can walk home for lunch. I hope the odds have tightened much since you tipped it.
280. oops … that should be haven’t
279. It’s been about since mid-December. I think the question mark is currently pretty small, as its just investigation of relationships to see if there were any. There’s currently no evidence of any offers to the firm by Richardson or any intervention on his part for them to get the contract.
re 280 Chris - a lot of people have the same problem.
My advice - when the time comes to change your mobile go for one with internet access so you can bet using your phone. All the big online bookies have special software for mobiles.
Wither Rudi?
Is Rudy Giuliani - whom none other than Pat Buchanan called the biggest political flop of 2008 last weekend on the McLaughlin Grope - going to run for Governor of New York? OR will he run instead for US Senator? Or will he strip naked and streek the inaugural parade down Pennsylvania Avenue?
Speaking of also-rans, interesting to reflect upon diverse fate of the 2008 Democratic field:
1. Barack Obama: gets brass ring and makes history
2. Hilary Clinton: almost makes history, but gets a nifty consolation prize which just might in the end prove to be her true ticket to history.
3. Joe Biden: next eight years will either make him or break him; personally reminds me of when Frank O’Bannon defered to Evan Bayh for the 1988 governor’s race in Indiana; FO’B had experience & senority, but EB had charisma; so Frank’s campaign manager cut a deal and he ended up running for Lieutenant Governor, then when Bayh ran for US Senate after two terms as gov, Frank ran for Gov and was elected. Could happen again, not predicting it. But don’t count Joe Biden out unless he flames out.
3. John Edwards: who?
4. Bill Richardson: similar to Alice Longworth Roosevlt’s take on Warren Harding - “Not a bad man, just a slob”. Of course BR is lots more talented and motivated than the only newspaper publisher ever elected president. But indeed sloppy around the edges, and like Harding a reasonably honest character (albeit with hearty appetites) but unparticilar with respect to his personal/professional associations. BTW my guess is that he comes out of the NM investigation OK, if not exactly a poster child for probity.
Whatever transpires, perhaps not being Commerce Secretary (Herbert Hoover’s old job BTW) will free up Richardson to be a player again on the foreign policy front. (Perhaps the animus of Clan Clinton will be eaased by BR’s comeupance?) For where he’s made his greatest contribution, and has potential for more, is in dealing with wackos beyond our borders and the 3mile limit.
284. And also Denis Kucinich, who while he didn’t win anything, at least inspired his true love with his campaigining.
http://elizabeth.kucinich.us/
They were in the House of Lords before Christmas, for some reason. She towers over him, and as well as being 30 years younger is about 30 times more attractive. Politics is a wonderful thing, sometimes.
279,280 am going to check the Albuquerque papers, but believe the grand jury probe actually began last summer. But apparently Obama people didn’t realize that ties with Gov were major issue.
Sounds like less than stellar vetting. Plus as I noted, appointing Richardson to Sec of Commerce always sounded like a weird if not exactly bad idea. Just not a good fit, unlike his previous cabinet post as Sec of Energy (due to the Los Alamos connection). As one talking head said this AM, original announcement seemed rushed.
Note that Obama has lost (at least for the moment) the services of America’s leading Hispanic politico? Punters may wish to ask themselves, does this bode well for the OTHER Salazar brother?
285 - did Denis Kucinich run last year? Ron Paul stole his schtick, lock stock n barrel. Don’t think I ran into a single Democrat last year who was supporting DK. And I live in an area where he actually came in first in many precincts at the 2004 caucuses.
He was VERY ill-advised to go for the 2nd slice o’ ham.
287 - In fairness, so long as Ron Paul doesn’t steal his missus as well as his “schtick” then he’s laughing.
287. He did indeed- as did Vilsack, Gravel and Dodd. Vilsack got Agriculture, probably in part for being smart enough to pull out early.
282 - New Mexico is both a state of incompetence AND questionable political ethics. Richardson’s person reputation is good (aside from his reputed zipper problem) but he’s not what you’d call a detail person. Plus he was a tad distracted, also his best people were no doubt on the campaign trail, and left Santa Fe to fend for itself. Which is ALWAYS a mistake methinks.
BTW, part of collateral damage with the Richardson nomination going splat, is that Lieutenant Gov. Diane Denish will NOT be advancing to the gubernatorial chair, leastways not as soon as she’d hoped. Am personally acquainted with Lt. Gov. Denish, and she is a truly class act. Not to mention that she’s from Little Texas with sexy west-tex twang you could cut with a knife. Plus - no joke- her daddy’s name was JACK DANIELS
289 - Vilsack endorsed Clinton on withdrawing though (while Dodd endorsed Obama). Probably more about securing Iowa and capitalising strength in midwest.
Anthony Wells has posted on the West London marginals poll by Greenpeace:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1781
Results here:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2008_dec_greenpeace_heathrow_poll.pdf
Apologies if this has been previously posted.
290- What’s your take on the fate of Howard Dean? To end up with nothing seems odd, given that he’s been such a significant figure in the revival of the Democrats. My suspicion was that if he wasn’t going to get Health, (and Obama would have been mad to give it to him) he might have ambitions for the Vermont senate seat, as Leahy will have done 33 years and be 70 in 2010 - Do you think this is plausible speculation?
re 289 - Hopi - why don’t you link to PB from your site?
re 294. Sorry - you do!!!!
294- I don’t? I thought I did… if not I shall remedy this glaring ommission immediately.
291 - (plus Chris Dodd wouldn’t realistically trade being a respected senior Senator for Vilsack’s new job even if it was offered).
295. Phew! and I call it “the UK’s premier politics blog” if you hover over the link (which is true, say I)
re 296. ConHome has only just restored a link here after a couple of year’s without one. I don’t think they liked me calling the site CONtinuityIDS.
289 - Yes, Vilsack was smart enough to figure out that he’d be no better than a speed bump on the campaign trail. Certainly proved to be to Obama’s advantage to have the Gov NOT in the fray. Because that would have given Hilary cover for ditching Iowa the way McCain did on the GOP side.
As for Dodd, he’s enjoying himself pontificating in the US Senate (where he can indeed make a genuine contribution provided he takes his head out of his hindquarters occassionally).
And Gravel? Here’s a bet you can take to the bank: in a contest for any office from dogcatcher on up, would be a sure thing to beat the likes of John Edwards.
300 - Gravel’s Helter Skelter cover was, for me, the defining moment of the campaign.
292
Mike whats the margin of error on such a poll in six constituencies when only about 167 people are polled in each one.. Just wondering what it really tells us?
Magnus Linklater is obviously unaware of the fearsome weapons that Morris Dancer intends for those on his little list - after the Comment piece in the Times I wonder if MD will choose to test the space gun on Magnus before sending Ed Balls out towards the Sun…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/magnus_linklater/article5454696.ece
“ConHome has only just restored a link here after a couple of year’s without one.”
Mike “The Greengrocer” Smithson, January 5th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Teehee!
290 - agree that sidelining of Howard Dean is rather odd. As you say, Dean was the daddy of the 50 state strategy, which was one of the key’s to Obama’s victory (and flipped the bird at that odious & superannuated toad James Carville). Plus fact that giving Dean a post would throw a bone to the leftblogosphere which right now is not really feeling the love of O the way that the softer minded among them fondly expected.
Perhaps something is in the works? And/or could it be that Sec of Health was NOT really what HD wanted after all?
As for Leahy, the old bulls of the Senate are NOT known for wandering away from the pasture.
@304:
Surely Mike “Shrek” Smithson?
297 - thought of a Connecticut Yankee as Sec of Ag would really raise a howl (of laughter plus) in the farm states. About as likely as appointing Cynthia McKenney as Sec of Defense, or Dick Cheney as UN Ambassador!
Sea Shanty do they normally broadcast the presidential election declaration anywhere? Think that there are going to be any faithless electors?
On the Greenpeace poll, I find it rather strange that they distinguish by gender and age, but not by ethnicity.
The area in question is surely one with a high proportion of immigrants from the sub-continent. Would not ethnicity - and tribal loyalty to community leaders - not be a relevant factor to take into account?
lol
Thanks SSI ; you’re obviously in a prodigious form today — both poetical and political at the same time!
“even in babyboomerworld there is limited appeal to callow midlife crisis”…
lol
310- Au fait Philippe, ou en sont les tractations politiques au Canada? Des elections en 2009 sont-elles toujours possibles?
Has anyone worked out how many times Brown has taken PMQs since the HoC rose for the summer recess last July? By my reckoning, it’s only 7 times over 6 months - astonishing.
313 - The man doesn’t believe in parliamentary democracy - surely you know that?
Salut Christ,
To be honest, I’m quite disconnected from Canadian politics at the moment. I’m in Montreal now, but have been traveling quite extensively in the last six months, and was following the US elections until November the 4th.
And now, I’m following American football and the NHL…
I’d rather refer you to a good Conservatiev blogger, http://www.andrewcoyne.com/ than to mislead you.
Ph.
313. Such courage.
Osborn was looked and sounded like an absolute political beginner in front of Paxo on Newsnight this evening.
The lighting made him look like a clown, and he didn’t act any better. The Tories wont get elected if they cant do better thn this.
292- iNtersting -the runway appears not to have had much effect.
I personally live in Fulham and am occasionally on the flight path and i have to say it does not bother me much. I find the minority round here who get very irate about it rather puzzling. IMHO much more annoying are the constant emergency sirens which I am convinced are often the pOlice just getting back to the station in time for their tea.
I forget: when will the votes be counted in the USA Presidential election? Is it today (6th) or Thursday (8th)? Will it be televised? What time?
I remain pretty sure,that,upon one Thursday in very late spring/summer,us British will be asked to make/mark our choice;I say no more
313 - That’s mainly a function of the long recess, Peter. How often has he not been there for it in those 6 months - twice, I think?
Was busy this evening chairing a huge public meeting called by Beeston Labour Party - 250 people attended, mainly responding to an invite on my email list. (We’re criticising a Tesco application - popular local cause.) A meeting in Stapleford on another issue attracted 60 people. I thought public meetings were supposed to have gone out of style?
317. Well he is, relatively speaking, a political beginner.
If there was an election this year and he became Chancellor, am I right in saying he would be the youngest Chancellor since the 1800’s?
Evening y’all. Just back from a jaunt in Europe, got stuck at Paris airport in the snow. Suffered a bizarre and traumatising experience: raising my eyes out of a rather good coffee in the vain hope of observing some activity at the boarding gate, I found myself looking eye-to-eye with none other than Dave ‘machine-gun’ Blunkett.
He has the rather unnerving habit of many blind people, in staring at the same point in space. If you happen to be at said point, it’s a little disturbing. Do you stare back? Not like he knows either way, but still seems a little rude.
re 51, Don Chidd, “Of course (from their point of view) the NHS is inefficient unless hospital beds are 100% occupied. Therefore it should be sold off to the private sector as soon as possible. QED.”
And of course others like Ed.
I work in the private sector, providing both scheduled and emergency services. (In IT).
Whilst it is possible to get good utilisation rates (because you can predict which periods will be busier etc) there is uncertainty and you will not get that right.
It is possible where you have spare capacity to draw some work forward, but only to a point. Someone who has work scheduled two weeks hence may have that work scheduled then for a number of reasons, and also, as a consequence, we will not have the inventory to meet that need today, if we were not expecting to do it for a fortnight.
Consequently you can’t operate at 100% utilisation.
The problem is worse in hospitals and hotels which are both private and publicly operated. (For example, we have private and public hospitals, and public hotels are called prisons).
Where you operate at 100% capacity (prisons) you achieve little in the way of useful service (rehabilitation in this case). Most hotels look to operate at 75-90% occupancy. A bit spare allows for “issues” with rooms, and also alows for unexpected peaks.
Alot of airlines try to operate at 100% capacity and fail massively overbooking flights. Works most of the time, but really hacks people off when they get bumped. It is not fair to bump operations in this manner.
The other thing is that beds need cleaning down. By definition you can’t have a patient in one whilst that happens.
It is however true that the NHS could be made both more effective and efficient, but that does not mean it could, or should aim for more than 90% occupancy.
Not a subject often discussed here but.. just how well ARE the BNP going to do over the next 18 months?
http://bnp.org.uk/2009/01/“israel’s-gaza-affair”-by-bnp-leader-nick-griffin/
This sort of stuff is on the ?most viewed? party political site in the uk. It includes gestures to the mainstream including disparagement of “neo-Nazi cranks”. The economic ideas elsewhere on the site seem like corporatist state control straight out of the 1950’s Labour Party. Will the social solidarity theme touch a chord with many many ex-labour working class voters as the recession(depression?) really bites.. or will it all fizzle?
Interestingly, plod (prop. ZNL)seem to be covering some of the bases.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/01/is-there-right-wing-extremist-under.html
Berg v. Obama lumbers on. Military man joins suit, Congressman may object to vote…
http://www.americasright.com/2009/01/with-supreme-court-conference-looming-q.html
326. Why are they such a bunch of deranged insane nincompoops? Obama has already produced his birth certificate and proved that he was born in Hawaii. What more do they want? Why don’t they just go the whole hog and claim that he’s a hippopotamus from the Andromeda Galaxy?
327. JohnMadman: Obama has already produced his birth certificate
Not really. If he had provided it to a court (and he’s had many chances), he could have stopped all this (probable nonsense) in its tracks.
Benedict, at 234, I agree with you entirely. These were the points that ChritinaD was making, a long time ago, in an exchange of views with Ed, who seemed to think that anything less than a 100% bed occupation rate was a sign of failure. So I made a brief comment about hardline Tories - because it is always pleasant to see thieves falling out, Tories coming to blows among themselves, etc.
It is simultaneously pleasant, surprising and yet disappointing to see Tories (such as you and ChrisD) adopting a reasonable position.
Thank goodness we still have Ed (and a few others) to keep us from being totally seduced by the Cameron project.
Did you ever get that blog of yours started up, by the way?