Is it worth betting on a ZERO interest rate?
January 8th, 2009
What about 3/1 that it will be 0% during the year?
With the bank rate hitting its lowest ever level in more than three centuries since the Bank of England was founded there’s now some betting interest on where this is all going to.
William Hill’s are offering odds of 3/1 that the Rate will hit 0% at some stage during 2009. This is available
online - but like other political markets from the firm you won’t be able to bet overnight.
The firm is also offering odds on what the bank rate will be at the end of the year. It’s 7/2 that it will still be at 1.5% on the final day of the year; 2/7 that it will be lower than that; 7/1 that it will be higher. At the moment this market does not appear to be online but I am assured that it soon will be.
I quite like the 7/1 that the rate will be higher than 1.5% - looks quite a value bet if you think that the government’s measures will start to work.
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Last post on previous thread!
Repeat:
I am happy to post under my own name - and think I have from time to time when pressing the button too soon but think that there are advantages in anonymity. Would be happy to register with full name, address, dob and PIN if that would help Mike!
Fascinating what you can find on the web. SBS [181] is very young to have such a serious illness - assuming he went up to Oxford straight after school. How is it going SBS?
That seems quite generous, 3:1.
I’ve been limited to only £36 on the 7/1 for interest rates to be > 1.5% on 31st December. I’m not an economist, but it seems fairly big. Who knows what shape the economy will be in by the end of 2009.
re Davies. There are good people in all parties who are prepared to speak out.
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2009/01/08/gordon-brown-we-will-not-abandon-liverpool-64375-22639531/5/
The MPs have signed a statement that describes the military strikes as an “outrage that the international community must not allow to continue”.
Most notably, it agrees with Israeli human right groups that the targets in Gaza “include also clearly civilian installations” – a charge Israel has repeatedly denied.
The statement also calls for an embargo on UK arms sales to Israel. The Government licensed £20m of military sales in just three months last year, it has been reported.
3 - bearing up… though not sure that 37 is very young!
The 7-1 odds look very generous. It is quite conceivable interest rates could edge up later in the year (certainly better than 7-1).
Repost from last thread.
Clegg shuffles his deck..
Simon Hughes Shadow Secretary for Energy and Climate Change
Steve Webb Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
David Heath Shadow Leader of the House
Jenny Willott Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
David Howarth Shadow Secretary of State for Justice.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/home/clegg-reveals-liberal-democrat-general-election-team-119073508
From last thread:
Chris Davies MEP I think should have had his whip withdrawn sometime ago. There are plenty of politicians who probably should have their whips withdrawn for more heinous views.
You seem to have a bee in a bonnet portraying Clegg as pro-Palestinian. His view seems pretty middle of the road. As I am sure the views of other LD MPs, including Jewish ones.
Back on topic: I think I would need more than 7/1 that the base rate would be over 1.5% at the end of the year.
I am afraid that I have not been able to find a mechanism that will start the economy growing again. If spending by consumers increases then perhaps a few shops will reopen, but it will be a brave (and cash rich) retailer to do that. Meanwhile there is further to go in reducing employment in financial services, housing and housing sales, and local authorities are going to be squeezed even without the Tory cuts.
Can anyone give me a reason why the economy will start to grow again?
On the face of it these seem very generous odds. There is however a question about what happens if the BoE cuts to a nominal level very near zero, say 0.1% or 0.05% - which is quite likely. Would this count as zero? The Fed is now at 0-0.25%, or midpoint 0.12% - would this count as zero under the Hills’ rules?
@5:
Hamas has a long and proud history of using civilian installations as weapons caches, safe houses, and general rallying points.
The judicious use of human shields is a well-established part of their playbook. Using UN schools as launch sites for rockets is small evolution of that.
7-1 on an economic recovery under Brown and Darling!!
10
The economy will start growing again after it has shrunk 7-10%.
On the zero thing, runnymede’s made the key point: what counts as zero? Over here IIRC what was referred to as “Zero Interest Rate Policy” was actually 0.1% or something. Would that count?
On the 7/1 on a big enough recovery for 1.5% interest rates - not sure whether those are good odds or not, be if you think a recovery’s going to happen I’d have thought you’d be better off putting your money in the stock market…
Madasafish - probably but why?
SBS - 37 seems young when you are going to be 60 this month!
13.7-1 on an economic recovery under Brown and Darling!!
Hmm interesting that would mean either
1) Labour win the next election
2) Ecomony recovers by May next year
Given the way things are going, 2) doesn’t look much good to happen, but then if it doesn’t 1) ain’t either.
So what you’re effectively betting on is 2).
9 - for god’s sake don’t start him off again - he’s like some insane rabid dog on the issue and basically believes that if you haven’t personally killed a Palestinian in the last 10 minutes you’re some sort of anti-Semite.
Anyway the only interesting thing about the Clegg shuffle is Susan Kramer’s decision to stand down to concentrate ‘on leading the campaign against Heathrow expansion’ ie concentrate on holding her seat.
We might need to re-examine things in the light of the revelations in the Mirror that Labour have got Cheryl Cole lined up to increase youth support.
Apparently she could swing them the election.
Don’t you just love the quality of the journalism out there?
Anyway, I suspect that we won’t get to 0% interest rates. 0.5% maybe - but no lower.
It is pretty clear that as a mechanism it is not really working - hence the repeated, regular cuts
Though Gordon is throwing things around with such gay abandon at the moment, who knows?
The beginning of this thread is deja vu all over again.
17. Looks like the Lib Dems can write off Richmond Park, then…
Is recovery the only scenario? Could interest rates rise to counteract the inflationary effect of printing money?
20 - I think Kramer will hold on. Goldsmith is not very impressive.
7/1 definitely looks like value.
I got £36 on at 7/1 - seems like a good bet.
21…if interest rates do not rise the government will be unable to borrow to fund the budget deficit.
24. It’s worth a couple of quid, but no more. Rates are ovewhelmingly likely to drop further before they rise, and generating either a strong enough recovery to reverse the cycle or a significant inflation by year-end is going to be hard.
24 Anyone on a tracker should take the 7/1: If rates do rise then your winnings compensate for higher mortgage payments, if they fall then reduced mortgage payments more than compensate for the lost stake money!
I hope we don’t hit 0% because the lower it goes the more it will rise as the funny money begins to wash around the system. The inflation will be like the 70’s and almost untamable.
The panic-and-spend-anything Labour government simply cannot accept that there is no easy answer to everything. They are convinced if they spray money around it will do the trick. It won’t. It just makes the market makers ever more wary of the dubious future of our economy.
And some of those market makers these days are savers. If they really do take fright as the Japanese pension funds have we will be in real trouble. Who buys government bonds? So instead print money and to hell with the inflation.
Interest rates will have to rise, so mortgages go up, and house prices stay stagnant as no one has the credit to buy them. Business will regard 13% interest as the good old days, and the Job Centres Plus will have to be enlarged and renamed the soup kitchen plus.
28. I think you may be overdoing it just a tad, old chap.
10. The economy growing again is only one reason why interest rates might go up. Inflation taking off e.g. after an excessive monetary expansion, is another.
PtP and Mike - I assume that interest rates will rise if the MPC think that inflation in 2010 is going to rise above 3%. The ending of the VAT 2.5% amnesty will help boost inflation, as will the rising costs of imports, but I would have thought that slowing the economy when it has only just got going, if indeed it does start to grow again, would be considered unhelpful.
Runnymede you think so? It may be the worst case scenario but it is not impossible.
This Labour shower have no idea but spend, spend, spend. And if they can’t borrow it and burden future generations with unmanageable debt they will simply print money.
There is no special magic for the UK to avoid the dangers of such a policy. We are not uniquely protected from the foolishness of our government which will teach our progeny a lesson they will not forget: at the crunch it is the feckless who are rewarded not the prudent, nor those in between.
Who will employ the three million or more out of work by the autumn if the debt burden makes credit continuously scarce, when the unemployment itself reduces tax take and increases spend?
There is a real danger of a downward spiral unless we face up to the hard facts that there is no improvement which is painless. Nationally we have to grow up and stop believing these Brown fairy stories. Start living within our means.
28. Dear oh dear. Real Apocalypse Now stuff.
Now remind me why this blog has started to depress me?
Mike: I suggest you could usefully make it more obvious where the links to your affiliated bookies are on your website - I can’t see ‘em.
re 27 that almost makes sense as some sort of bizarre savings scheme.
14 You’re supremely optimistic Madasafish if you think the UK economy will only shrink 7-10%.
Most business people reckon on a hefty 20-22% reduction of the economy, together with a rolling deflation beginning NOW.
28..you are spot on.
32. Have you ever heard of the paradox of thrift? You, Ozzie and Cammo ought to get a book out before you say another word about macroeconomics.
If you want to rein in spending, do it when the economy has moved into robust recovery, not when it is in recession.
“Now remind me why this blog has started to depress me?”
Because you’re a Labour supporter?
I’m not sure about 3-1 on the 0% rate, although it’s reasonably generous. But 7-1 on above 1.5% at year-end looks very good value. Bear in mind that it’s not about recovery, it’s about inflation. Because of the fall in sterling against the dollar, shops will be replenishing stocks at higher prices during 2009. So rate rises towards the end of 2009 are quite possible - these are volatile times.
37. No he isn’t. He is spouting sensationalist rubbish.
Bobajob perhaps it depresses you because the number of people who fall for the silly stories, the misplaced optimism in which you believe, is growing.
35: “that almost makes sense”
I’ll take that as a compliment - I think!
Oh dear
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/45602,features,anatole-kaletsky-fails-to-declare-his-interest-richard-brooks
Anatole Kaletsky is failing to declare his interest
The journalist writes a Times economics column while holding a stake in a fund management company, says Richard Brooks
One of Britain’s foremost economic commentators has been analysing and predicting the financial markets without declaring his interest in a company trading in those very subjects, The First Post can reveal.
40. Inflation will be less than 1% by the end of 2009 and very possibly negative.
39. I would not call myself a Labour supporter, or a supporter of any party for that matter. But if the cod economics of (some) Tories on here is characteristic of the Tory front bench (which it seems to be) I most certainly am not a Tory supporter, that’s for sure.
Why is this blog so Tory dominated now anyway? What’s happened to the Lefties?
OT. I dont think rates will be cut to zero, although the ninnies may cut the rate by a further 1/2% by March.
45 Which raises an interesting question: when was the last time the UK (or any major Western economy) had negative inflation?
38..isn’t it about who does the spending? the productive private sector or the inefficient public sector? there is currently a gross imbalance.
47 If CPI shows the same sort of rapid drop as yesterday’s Shop Price Index figures I think they may fall faster and further.
“Why is this blog so Tory dominated now anyway? What’s happened to the Lefties?”
Well, I don’t know about the rest of them but *I* realised I could no longer lend my support to perhaps the most illiberal government among Western democracies.
45 runnymede - You may well be right. But looking a year ahead, in volatile economic times, with exchange rates likely to be volatile as well, 7-1 looks value.
42. In economics, optimism is often a self fulling prophecy.
Same thing applies to pessimism…
49. How about government borrowing heavily to build massive new infrastructure projects? That would be an idea. Great multiplier for the private sector, who would build the road/rail/broadband/energy facilities even though the spend originally came from Government.
Sitting here and “tightening our belts” is the economics of the madhouse.
48. Think we had deflation in 1960 for a quarter or so, IIRC Phil.
Didn’t Japan also have deflation up until fairly recently? (For quite a long time IIRC)
45. 0% inflation - I just don’t think this is what will happen, although I agree it’s what every economist says is going to happen.
In my view we are headed for a double dip, yes in the short term inflation will drop back but almost as quickly I think it will bounce back with a vengeance.
We are seeing a good old-fashioned politically motivated ‘dash for growth’ and any of us old enough to remember the 1970’s knows the script - and the ending.
48. Germany briefly had negative inflation in the mid-1980s. Japan in the 1990s of course. For the UK you would have to go back to the 1930s.
52. I think it should be more like 12-1 myself.
46. They’re ashamed that their Govt has ruined the UK Economy maybe.
afternoon all, sadly I eckon interest rates will rise later in the year to pay for Team Brown’s next cunning plan which will be massively inflationary. Clearly there is a conflict in Government with Balls or a n other Brown confidant spinning the story about printing money whereas Darling who actually has had a real job in the real world is denying it on the lunchtime TV news.
I keep saying it is 74-79 all over again and this time for Dennis Healey read Ed Balls going to the IMF for help. It appears the Chinese are drying up as a source for purchasing US Government Bonds so who in their right minds are going to buy Team Brown bonds? We really could be heading for a situation like Japan in the 1980s/1990s with years of nothing good happening in the economy.
Last night I was listening to a debate on Newsnight Scotland about what is likely today in the SNP’s second budget. It was clear the LibDems are talking mickey mouse tax cuts, Labour is talking about spending money Alistair Darling has refused to the Scottish Government and the Tories Derek Brownlie gave a clear indication that yet again we will be supporting the SNP and pushing through their budget proposals.
I fail to see how Brown Central think they can hold Scottish marginal seats by planning major capital projects in England to soak up some of the unemployed and at the same time refuse the SNP Government in Scotland the ability to do exactly the same thing. Interesting times are clearly ahead both at Holyrood and Westminster.
28
I didn’t like the 70s first time around.
I think I’ll ask for my money back. I’m not going to fork out just to live through a remake.
57. Runnymede - I’m sure I read we experience deflation very briefly in 1960? I could well be wrong, however.
53. Come on Bob, cheer up, you may even get to love thr recession.
Hope you’ve sold all you’re shares!
54. No, running huge deficits during a property bubble boom is the economics of the madhouse.
54. “the economics of the madhouse”
Is that better or worse than the economics of the poorhouse we are currently pursuing?
61. Retail prices may have fallen then for the odd quarter, as you suggest. But I wouldn’t really characterise that as deflation - nor in fact would I the mid-1980s experience in Germany.
The deflation we need to be worried about is something that extends over several years and encompasses nominal variables other than just consumer price indices - for example wages. Japan is the only recent genuine example of that. I think we will get it in 2009-2011 across the major economies.
38 isnt the problem with relying on the paradox of thrift that it doesn’t reflect human behaviour? theoretically it may make sense but in the current climate individuals are going to cut spending and save come what may because they feel nervous. Yes if we all spend spend spend it may help our retailers etc but we are not going to. Attempts to stimulate us to spend are likely to fail because we are all afraid of the economic future. As a result they will just be expensive wastes of time even if they make theoretical economic sense.
Tightening our belts now may make things worse for the country as a whole in the immediate future but will surely stand us in good stead in the longer term. As someone mentioned what we really want is for people to save more as the economy recovers strongly (rather than as it contracts) but, human nature being what it is, when the econmic outlook looks sunnier we want to spend and foget about boring old saving.
Confidence plays a huge role in the economy - we need to understand human nature.
You are not alone.
65. I think we have wage deflation at the bottom end of the employment market (caused by the huge over supply of cheap labour from abroad), and have had so for about three years or so now, this has largely being hidden by the minimum wage, which has for many become a ceiling, not a floor.
C’mon, Bobajob — let’s have another cut-and-paste post from you about how wonderful it is all the Eurozoners are coming here and ordering fancy 3-course meals, that’ll cheer us up…
54 The Government has already said it will be bringing forward capital expenditure. But if so why have the aircraft carriers been delayed? Why doesn’t the Government take the opportunity to provide out troops with badly needed equipment (it could buy some helicopters and some badly needed armoured landrovers, for example)?
65. Fair enough - thanks.
56. But the only place we are seeing wage inflation (and have done for a decade) is in the public sector, there is no wage spiral in the private sector yet, despite the pressures of the previous twelve months, where times got quite hard in terms of fuel, mortgages and food inflation.
68. Yes there has been some of that in certain areas, I agree. It will be interesting to see how things pan out as competition for jobs hots up in the year ahead. I’m not optimistic - I’m particularly worried we will get an upsurge in anti-immigrant sentiment like in the early 1980s.
70, because the Military Covenant means nothing to Labour’s leadership.
61 - For a very brief period in the 1959/60, there were some tiny year on year falls in the RPI but under 1% and so brief you’d have blinked and missed it. It is less unusual to get month on month falls - there was “deflation” in November for example in that narrow sense - but it is only a problem if sustained.
72 - Not true. The median public sector wage in the last tax year rose 4.3% and in the private sector by 4.6%.
70. It certainly should do. The aircraft carrier story was extremely puzzling and very frustrating as defence spending is usually a good multiplier and often creates high value employment in needy areas (such as Clydeside).
O/T - sort of! Pizza Express have sent me a 2 for 1 voucher. Unlike most such offers the cost of the most expensive main course is refunded.
I have been eating at Pizza express for well over 30 years. What is the most expensive pizza you can devise that is still edible? - Extra cheese, extra egg, extra anchovies ….
Out of interest, what’s the cost of the aircraft carriers?
The Tories and Lib Dems should leap on it if it’s less than £20bn, and ask why the government will spend that sum on useless, intrusive ID cards no-one wants but won’t spent it giving the military the hardware they need.
76. The latest data show private sector wage growth in the three montsh to October at 3.2%, public sector at 3.8%. I suspect the gap will widen further in the months ahead.
73. ‘upsurge in anti-immigant sentiment’
That is something that worries me too. And there has been A LOT of immigration in recent years, even if many of people’s concerns about it are hysterical.
We are a much more rootless country than in previus downturns. A lot of our old pillars like the Church, Monarchy, Parliament and Police inspire little loyalty or even respect from the public now. i’m not saying a major economic collapse would lead to massive civil idsobedience, but……. we are in unchartered waters.
79. Well we all know the Labour government will spare no expense to exert control over its own citizens but has little interest in defending them from external threats.
I would have thought that investing in gas storage ships would be a better use of funds than more arms.
16
Icarus
After a few years sorting out company and personal balance sheets ( shorthand for repaying debt), confidence will recover.
Anyone who thinks you can undo the excesses of 15 years in under 3 years is called A Darling.
36
Weathercock.
A 20% or so reduction in GDP? Possible. If so then the FTSE will fall below 1,000 . That is far more severe than 1929-32 when the US contracted 30% but the UK only 5%. But then of course, British Banks were better managed and did not go bust.
My Benchmark is 1972-74. The FTSE fell 70% from start to end. If we are worse than that - as is entirely likely - I expect int erst rates to be zero, the banks to be recapitalised again, Government bond issuance to cease and inflation to reach 30% pa - eventually. Then interest rates would rise to 20% plus…
Only idiots like Kaletsky forecast: I have no idea how bad it WILL become….just much worse than now.
53 The party’s over - Gordons booming economy was a sham. Smoke and mirrors. A giant Ponzi scheme. It was all reliant on consumers racking up massive debts, in the form of ‘equity release’ and huge mortgages on overpriced property. It’s time to deal with it, the sooner the better and it’s not going to be pleasant.
This isn’t pessimism, it’s reality. Why is it so wrong to say this?
81, I concur with the Parliament and Police being disrespected. I think you’re wrong about the monarchy though, and mostly wrong about the church. The Archdruid might be away with the fairies, but Sentamu seems to be more popular and in touch with reality, and the recent episcopal broadside against the piratical Brownbeard rings true.
Generally, we’ve had too much immigration. With the probable exception of the Poles, most of it is viewed negatively or neutrally. COuld create some riots.
80 - Yes, it varies. But Gaz is just wrong to claim public sector pay has risen faster than private sector pay for a decade.
Nissan to chop 1,200 jobs in Uk..
60. “I didn’t like the 70s first time around.”
If it’s anything like the movies, sequels tend to be twice as expensive and only half as good.
67. Is that just a general feel-good comment?
87. He exaggerated a bit. It was consistently ahead from 2001-2005, fell behind in 2006-2007 and has now sneaked ahead again.
1200 jobs to go at Nissan in Sunderland - watch sunderland central go blue?
86. Oh come on, how much interest is there really left in the Monarchy? It’s apathy not hatred that is their problem, but it is nothing like the institution that it was. As for the church, there may be the odd person prepared to say un-PC, pro-christian things, but they aren’t really taken seriously by the majority. How many people could name anyone significant inside the CofE except Williams? Very few.
People now owe their loyalty to Ikea and Tesco.
90 runnymede - And what if you add in pension benefits as well?
OT - This West Wind DVD boxset for £50 on Amazon, is that a good deal? I haven’t watched any of the programmes. I can’t believe that they are giving a boxset with 40 dvd’s for £50.
91. Very possible. I think it’s a 7/4 chance myself the Tories will win that constituency on its new boundaries. That announcement might make it 13/8.
90 - Yes, but in fairness Labour promised to be more generous with public sector workers and that’s what they’ve done, particularly earlier in their period in office. Gaz was trying to turn it into an always and forever rule where private sector pay fails to keep up with inflation (not true) and increases are always lower than in the public sector (not true).
94. Best money you will ever spend
- seriously it’s a quality show and will provide months of entertainment.
O/T I’ve just noticed William Hills are offering 25-1 on John Smith being the next Labour leader after Brown. Seems a bit ungenerous, don’t you think, or has technology advanced faster than I’d thought?
93. Hard to quantify that, but obviously that’s an additional bonus for many (but not all) public sector workers.
96. Yes Labour have tried to look after their payroll vote, I would agree.
92, I think you’re utterly wrong. (As you may’ve guessed, I’m an arch-royalist).
Was there apathy at the Golden Jubilee? Did no-one turn up to pay their respects to the late Queen Mother?
Of course it isn’t the institution it used to be, the reason our monarchy has survived is because it changes with the times. It evolves, rather than dying like the French monarchy.
Ladrokes offering 4/1 on the Tories in Sunderland central.
Probably wont take it but not terrible value, had a fiver myself.
101. Based on Henry’s comment I’ve doubled my earlier £10 bet on that one.
99 - There’s an element of “payroll vote” but a lot of private sector workers felt the situation was rather unfair for teachers and nurses (and that it adversely affected the service they were receiving). Oddly, some of the groups that have done best out of public sector pay increases are by no means reliable Labour voters (e.g. GPs).
Why all this questioning of Brown and Darling? As any recent economics Nobel laureate will tell you, team Brown has saved the entire world through sheer genius:
“The British government went straight to the heart of the problem - and moved to address it with stunning speed… But policy is, finally, being driven by a clear view of what needs to be done.”
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International_Business/Brown_has_saved_the_worlds_financial_system_Krugman/articleshow/3594373.cms
All critics should fall silent until and unless the Swedes see fit to declare them worthy to question those in the lofty ranks of Krugman/Brown/Darling. In the meantime, don’t worry. It sounds like everything is going to be just fine.
Dependin on how Willhil defines 0% this could be a very bad bet indeed. It is very unlikrly that Interst Rates will fall to actually 0%. In japan the long period of very low rates actually involved rates being 0.1% not 0.0%. This difference is crucial and in my view the same woulod happen here if interest rates fall that low.
However even if they do accept 0.1% as being equivelent to 0 I am unsure that that is a very good bet anyway. It is noticalble that pundits before Xmas were seriously expecting todays cut to be 75bps or even 100 bps but actually its only 50 bps. This could be for a variety of reasons but it is nonetheless an iniactor that interst raetes may not fall as low as initially thought.
Furthermore it is also noticable that the STock Market is now quite a long way from its lows. Confidence, in some areast is returning.
Finally there was an intersting piece the other day on how the low Euro is attracting European property buyers to the top end of the UK market. For them prices in londpon are 43% off their peak.
I mean strong Euro, low pund in final para.
84. Madasafish.
The main point to consider when discussing the UK economy is that we only have a fraction of the manufacturing capability that we had even only 20 years ago, let alone in the 50’s and 60’s.
True, much of that capability was old, decrepit and old fashion, but we did have it.
No New industry has replaced the old, (except in the margins), and all we have to depend on is:
1. The Financial Sector, which recently failed.
2. The Tourist Sector, which is not reliable.
3. The Store or Highstreet Sector, which is starting to suffer.
We also have a very small Armaments Sector, which continues to produce faulty equipment.
So a 20% +/- squeeze on the economy looks like a good forcast to me.
107. The Highstreet sector was only fuelled by MEW - which is now shafted.
100. Morris - I couldn’t care less about the monarchy, but I’d still advocate keeping them for pragmatic reasons.
Not least because the are a bunch of comedians who provide endless entertainment. And Chelsy Davy clearly goes like a bag of frogs.
toontoon, £50 for the entire West Wing boxset is a fantastic buy.
I didn’t think that technically an interest rate could fall to zero. I think the closest they can get to zero is probably describing it similar to how the American Feds recently described their last interest rate cut just before Christmas.
Fed Press release 16/12/08 - “The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent”
I think clarification from the bookies may have to be required on this one as to what they are going to classify as 0%.
109. I like the Monarchy and think the Queen has served her country more than admirably and I am proud to be her loyal subject.
However, you are spot on about Chelsy!
109- Na, dump the monarchy in a lake somewhere, its for their own good.
98. I presume they’re talking about this one? -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Smith_(Welsh_politician)
I can only vaguely picture what he looks like, though, so I’ve no idea why he’d be 25-1. Maybe they just mean absolutely anyone called John Smith.
113, treason! Traitor! Off with his head!
112, aye, the Queen is thoroughly excellent, and anyone who disagrees is a Frenchman.
94, got it for christmas from the mrs, i am already on season 4….. loving it, watched it before, but still.
The first couple of seasons border on the offensive though for anyone of a conservative pre-disposition. Conservative viewpoints are treated with utter contempt and ridicule, liberals are all nice, good people wishing to their utmost best, conservatives are evil (racist) nasty people interested only in self enrichment and screwing down children and little old ladies.
You think i am kidding?? Really, it is that bad, the writer really had a stick up his arse. However, it is still pretty well done, and from season three it gets a lot better, with contrary view points argued, and respected…
Andrew Strauss Live interview on Sky now.
O/T Has this been mentioned on here?
http://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2009/01/fpc-decision-on-tuition-fees-makes.html
This is far more important than Clegg’s reshuffle, I’d say. The size of the majority (14-5) for keeping Lib Dem universities policy as it is suggests that the party’s repositioning exercise is over, at least this side of the general election.
I’m having a discussion in my office about technophobic MPs. Does anyone have any suggestions as to who the most tech-friendly MPs are?
112 This is clearly why anonymity is so important.
Thanks for all the replies, I think I might be splashing the cash on it this evening then. It does sound an amazing deal.
re 48 well in the UK the RPI monthly index was negative for 7 months between 1959 April and 1960 March. The RPI index reached 110.4 in Jan 1959 and was continuously below this level until Jun 1960, so that 18 months of falling prices.
I seem to remember (not personally of course) “that most of our people had never had it so good”.
119.
119. I suspect some of the people on here harping on about anonymity are just trying to pretend they’re someone important.
For the record, I’d like to remain anonymous and I’m no-one of any importance.
115- Your review confirms my motivation for never having watched a single episode. My RDA for Democratic propaganda is likely well below that of the average Brit (doctor’s orders… hypertension and all that), which I easily meet through a brief morning perusal of the online pages of the NYT and Washington Post.
re 57 runnymede not so. Why does everyone remember the 1930s deflation, but not he 1959/60 one?
123. I am indeed no one of importance, but sometimes that doesn’t get in the way of a good or cheap story.
117. yes the Lib Dems seem intent on fighting the 2005 campaign again, assembling the same motley collection of students, ethnic minorities and disaffected guardianistas and assorted trots. Pretty desperate stuff and doomed to failure.
124- Just watch House of Cards instead
127. Really? Sounds like the first bit of good sense in months to me. But doubtless Nick Clegg will be devastated.
I saw Paxman totally roast McNulty last night on the government’s “figures” for creating new apprenticeships.
But Fraser Nelson over at the Coffee House Blog reports that Ed Balls has gone even further.
Ed Balls debuts the apprenticeships Brownie
“Ed Balls never gets enough credit for the Brownies that he cooks up. One was served today, when he spent an interview with the Beeb denouncing those Tory plans to axe 220,000 apprenticeships. As he put it:
“There is a choice for our country - a choice between a Government which says we must act to get through difficult times and the Conservatives, who on Monday announced cuts in public spending which would mean over 200,000 apprenticeships cut. In fact, it would mean almost no apprenticeships for young people at all.”
Except there are no Tory plans to axe apprenticeships. Not one. It was concocted by Mr Balls, on the grounds that if you lie in politics via figures, you get away with it. What Labour have done is do their own fake Tory budget-tightening exercise. It’s worth studying, as it gives an insight into Brownite tactics.”
Really worth reading the whole article, but Fraser is onto something here. He coined the phrase the *Brownie*, and has regularly highlighted some classics on the Coffee House Blog. We already remember the 10p tax con and the bogus troop withdrawals.
But what happened on Newsnight should have been a warning to the Brownite cabal that not every journalist is going to leave their figures unchallenged any longer, especially as the economy goes down the drain. They might have got away with this type of tactic when they were riding high in the polls and we had a benign economy, remember Browns infamous claims on Tory black holes?.
But at this time, anything other than honesty is a dangerous game for a discredited and unpopular government. It just takes one claim too far to be very publicly latched onto by the media, and then it becomes very damaging for a government seeking to be re-elected for a fourth term.
re 81 it’s little surprise that the police are disrespected. If you’re middle class your likely experience of them is finding that they will do absolutely sod all to investigate your burglary. If you’re black then it’s likely to be that they think you’re a terrorist.
95- HenryGManson
Are you following the tennis today?
Monfils/Nadal has already started to be fun: one break each and more than half an hour for te fisrt 7 games. However, Nadal will probably wear Monfils down as usual 9and win in 2 sets)
What’s your feeling about tomorrow’s Gasquet/Tsonga? I suppose Tsonga is favourite but he was not very impressive in the first rounds. I rate it 50/50 with a possible advantage for Gasquet, who seems to have had a better preparation.
Mike -
Having big problems loading threads and refreshing pages with either Safari or Firefox. This is the only site I regularly visit (out of approx 120) that seems to be affected.
Anything changed here that could cause it?
125. See my later post at 65. I wouldn’t characterise either the UK in 1959/160 or Germany in the mid-1980s as deflation episodes.
The yoy rates for the RPI in 1959-1960 were as follows -
1959 - Q1 2.1
1959 - Q2 -0.3
1959 - Q3 0.6
1959 - Q4 0.0
1960 - Q1 -0.5
1960 - Q2 1.1
1960 - Q3 1.5
1960 - Q4 1.8
the index levels
1959 - Q1 12.4
1959 - Q2 12.3
1959 - Q3 12.3
1959 - Q4 12.4
1960 - Q1 12.4
1960 - Q2 12.4
1960 - Q3 12.4
1960 - Q4 12.6
So really it was just the odd quarter of decline, actually a period of broadly stable rather than falling prices.
128. Debatable advice. After all, House of Cards has two basic messages -
1) The old Tory always ends up on top.
2) The old Tory has to murder people to end up on top.
128- The reviews are truly superlative. This sounds like one worth watching if I can manage to find it.
re 103 it’s a pure myth I would say that the public sector are Labour voters.
127. You should be happy that Guardianistas and Trots are voting for a party that believes in individual freedom, enterprise, decentralisation and opportunity - instead of for left-wing parties. Or do their votes, like those of “students and ethnic minorities”, not really count?
El Gordo really is leading the world:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123137220550562585.html
Karl Rove writes, amongst other hilarious comments, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were among the principal culprits of the housing crisis, and Mr. Bush wanted to rein them in before things got out of hand.
Yeah. Right. And monkeys might fly outta my butt.
137, it’s fantastic.
136- Stars and Stripes
You can also try “The Wire” and its very good analysis of the betraying of the working class and minorities by their supposed defenders in the democratic establishment in Baltimore (especially season 2 and 3)
re 118 it must be Nick P beyond a shadow of a doubt. And probably John Redwood for the Tory cause.
126. I am no-one of importance. (I am Spartacus)
140. 137. House of Cards is superb stuff. I would commend it to you too, S&S.
137. Chris A: it’s a pure myth I would say that the public sector are Labour voters.
Oh really?
Then why did Ipsos-MORI introduce weighting of public secrtor workers to avoid bias to Labour?
138., Do Lib Dems actually believe in anything other than what is most likely to win votes in any given seat?
134 - Broadly agree although inflation at that sort of level is deflation in one sense, since traditional measures of inflation consistently and unavoidably overstate inflation slightly. But it’s nowhere near a situation where people defer spending in anticipation of lower prices.
145, I was reminded quite recently of HoC when Labour MPs started describing the economic maelstrom as ‘our Falklands’. I won’t spoil it for anyone who hasn’t seen HoC, but suffice to say it did not transpire entirely to the government’s advantage in that particular situation.
@135:
You have to put some stick about, see what pops up.
132- And as soon as I say that Monfils takes the first set, incredible… He’s not yet safe from a Nadal comeback though.
147, eurofederalism?
re 133 no Firefox problems for me.
@151:
Glass coffee tables?
148. I would say the Falklands metaphor for Labour is true - with Brown as Galtieri.
Starts off well, grabs high ground with lightening strike, long period of waiting followed by crushing defeat and ignomy.
We’re coming to the end of the waiting phase.
141/144- Thanks for the recommendations guys. Television is such a morass of garbage that I don’t even try to find anything interesting anymore… it just isn’t worth the effort. Good suggestions are always helpful though! When we watch television at home, we usually end up watching the French international channel, TV5, after having given up on all the U.S. channels.
As for British programs, I’ve always had a soft spot for David Suchet’s Poirot; quaint but clever and fun.
133 occasional issues on Safari with re-loads hanging up - generally just abort and hit shortcut to pb.com and then thread heading and it loads OK, irritating but not a constant problem.
155, the problem is that if a Belgrano moment occurs it’ll be ordinary people and our economy that gets stuffed. Brown’s got a bulletproof pension.
OMG, S&S watches *French* TV!!!
imeon out from hence. So Pharaoh had made sweet. There was Hirah. And they see your brother Benjamin, that soul shall kill me, what they did send his brethren could not let your loins of Israel, saying, Be lord knoweth not nigh hither: for them go? And Hamor the waters were with my kindred, and let us out unto Abraham lifted up early in thy mother’s brother. And Jehovah God Almighty bless thee, pass after its blossoms shot forth; [and] fruit-trees bearing spicery and the land of the Canaanites, among them, save thee and the second time will be any one that are shepherds, both your youngest is in all his name Joseph, which he had the street all night. Thus saith Jehovah, and Buz his sons and thy servant our brother, and take it came to know them. And Shelah lived after its kind: and Puvah, and Raamah, and Mehujael begat Mehujael: and beast; and thou art thou? and he said, I hide from his brethren. And the serpent was in to your way; and upon God. And she called her with pitch; and shall be felt. And God said unto thee to be laid each man on his brethren, sons of the land: and his father revived: and the firmament Heaven. And the flesh with me: and I will praise Jehovah. And the price let them as she called Abraham, to Jacob, and brought forth red, all my first-born: and Letushim, and it upon me I will pass in the rib, which he shall be for a second called Edom. And the end that is in the land of Bethuel begat Isaac. And the seven and bare Abraham bought him Bilhah Rachel’s handmaid bare unto the place where is my son. Only thou to the manner shall be thine eyes, and of Canaan. And he feared to wife. And when thou into Egypt, ye will become a hundred and thou take our father’s sons and he had they give thee will be one as the gray hairs of Haran, the Hittite, and will not Pharaoh’s. And of raiment; but to you shall see the chiefs that he said, We have enough. And now, and Accad, and more until the horses, and their grain, and Letushim, and their names of a kid of Israel; and became serpents: but Benjamin’s mess was the land of money. For I lifted up the name of thy belly shalt thou say unto Seir. And the arms of the face of his children of the child therein, and the sons before him, So he grew. And he shall a tree; and heat, and wise, she shall ye shall bring it is this manner, to a furnace. And he is not so that brought forth the name of the dream was the river were thirty years, and brought back the Jebusite, and God said, I know that went and he went out of Egypt, and said, Let there stood before their sister; that thou shalt come out of his mother; and begat Abram, after them rulers over all this day. And he put his servants: behold, it on your households, and the angel of them upon the service in the ring, and they left off the kings shall press upon one flesh. And the field: and of the righteous within his dream both their little which they for God destroyed from the king of Bilhah, Rachel’s gra
Um. Oops. Sorry. Mistake. Bad me.
House of Cards: BIG SPOILER ALERT AT 135.
158- When it comes to popular culture/television/Hollywood/music/etc., America is about as deep as a teacup. I have to give the French their due!
155. Try Prime Suspect too if you like crime stuff. Excellent.
The pound is starting to rally strongly against the Euro and US Dollar. It’s anticipated to test 1.62 levels again very shortly against the US Dollar.
Analysts are expecting the Euro to be the currency that sinks horribly in 2009.
A lot of these dire predictions about where sterling was heading this year appear to have been way off the mark.
Despite interest rates falling and talk of quantative easing there appears to be growing international confidence in the prospects of the UK economy moving forward.
Maybe Cameron and Osbourne will yet regret betting big against the government’s handling of the crisis.
161 That’s not a spoiler, it’s a standard assumption.
155- TV5 is not that bad but you have to be able to endure the unwatchable France2 news.
I agree with you that most US tv channels are incredibly bad. I only use my TV here to watch sports games or movies (but only on no advertisement formats such as HBO or PBS).
re 134 runnymede don’t know where you got those figure from. The official ones from the ONS give the following monthly inflation figures from Mar 1959 onwards
1.8% 59-03
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.8%
0.5%
0.9%
0.3%
-0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.5% 60-01
-0.4%
-0.5%
0.7%
1.1%
1.5% 60-06
So once the deflation started it continued often uninterrupted from months at a time.
155. Actually, before we leave the subject completely, after House of Cards, probably the next best British drama series about politics is A Very British Coup (although that one’s about the left). And another tip about the House of Cards trilogy - the first two installments (House of Cards and To Play the King) are brilliant, the third (The Final Cut) somewhat less so.
re 145 did they, when?
164
“The pound is starting to rally strongly against the Euro and US Dollar”
Rally yes.
Strongly? Nope.
It’s basing against the US$ , And doing a dead cat bounce on the Euro.
Why don’t you learn some basic charting/economics before spouting claptrap?
164. Is a strong £ not the last thing we need ? Confused.
170 Surely no need to be so rude.
164 - Bryan: yeah, rallying really strongly all the way back to mid December levels. Get a grip and a bit of perspective. The £ has collapsed against just about every other currency over the past 6 months or so. The minor bounce over the past couple of weeks means nothing. Whether the collapse is good or bad is, however, a matter of opinion.
172
Rude? No. Just telling it as I see it. It is claptrap so it’s not rude.
165.
Interesting inflation fact that inflation rose as much in the 5 years of the Wilson/Callaghan government as it has in the 22 years since January 1987.
@168:
State of Play.
166- I guess it’s all relative, Chris. I find France2 news no more unwatchable than what passes for news television here. But that likely has as much to do with a lesser sensitivity to biases/shortcomings in French news in general vs. American news. I will say that their anti-Israel and anti-American biases in news reporting is pretty embarrassing, though. One has to wonder to what extent French anti-Israel and anti-American biases are formed by their news reporting as opposed to merely being reflected in that reporting.
164. Even if this were true, why would we *want* a strong pound? So people can spend their mortage discounts on holidays abroad? No thanks. 1-1 with the Euro suits us fine.
168. Yes the third is very average - it sort of suffers from Godfather Part III syndrome. I have never seen A Very British Coup - must dig it out.
Mike I have recently returned to the UK after 15 years in France and have put my new e mail link in the ‘Mail will not be published’ slot as there seems not to be another way of informing you of the change, and I very much hope that it is secure
155- Poirot is OK, but for detective fun you want to watch this!
Completely o/t but I saw an occassional pbc poster on the BBC’s ‘100 most annoying people of 2008′ programme the other night. (Not for their posting history so not any of the obvious candidates
) I’m sure he’s miffed at how he was misrepresented but actually I think it’s quite an achievement to get on the list!
181- Of course. That goes back a bit further but I’m also well acquainted with that series and tremendously enjoyed it.
Edge of Darkness is a fine piece of 80s paranoid secret state nuke/eco-wibble TV. And a young Joanne Whalley.
182. Who was it?
178- S&S, have you seen BBC World News? If so, what do you think of it? Biased too?
179- S and S
I agree, I feel the same regarding the US news/media: I see the bias but it doesn’t annoy me as much. I actually find quite funny the daily instalment of obamania in the Washington Post (my favourite: a full page of interviews of the around 20 people standing in front of Obama hotel to witness a “moment of history”: him entering the lobby of his hotel. + the report on his favourite workout apparel…)
France2 is hysterically anti-US and anti-Israel and generally supportive of the French socialists. Most French right-wingers (and most french, full stop) watch the TF1 news which are more right-leaning/populist. TF1 is less anti-american and certainly not pro-arab.
The country at large is still very anti-US with the heritage of the two dominant political cultures of the 60ies/70ies: gaullism and communism.
Sarkozy now assumes he can get away with being seen as more friendly to the US and Israel than Chirac, especially with the Obama election. But even him has to be very careful and his frantic diplomatic activity on the last few days has tried to project an image of balance.
I gather Sarko has banned advertising on French state TV. To make it more BBC.
Might Gord try such a trick with C4?
186- BBC World News is much better than any American television news source, in my opinion, in terms of delivering real news in a professional manner. It reminds me, at least in tone and professionalism, of what American television news was a few decades ago before it went off the tracks and into total garbage land. Again, the chicken and egg question: is American news worthless because the consumers are uninformed and uninterested or did the declining quality of the product result in such consumers?
184. Yes, I agree with you there, Edge of Darkness is superb. It didn’t pop into my head because I didn’t really think of it as an out-and-out political drama. But now I come to think of it, it even featured a cameo by a certain Michael Meacher. (I wonder how many MPs turned it down first!)
188
C4 is nearly bust. Ban advertising and it needs a subsidy.
@191:
Given that C4 has wandered so far wide of its remit as to longer be deserving of the name ‘public service broadcaster’, should we care?
188- How can you make C4 *more* left wing?
189- So you wouldnt consider it anti-american like some people do?
160 No sweat, Martin.
I actually thought it was one of your better posts, although I struggled to see the betting implications.
192 I’d bloody well care. Its racing coverage is outstanding.
189 Which one’s the chicken and which is the egg? Because the egg definitely came first.
“and of the righteous within his dream both their little which they for God destroyed from the king of Bilhah”
Errr, come again?
188- SBA
the ban on advertisement is only during prime time. The beeb is the model quoted by Sarkozy.
Funnily enough, this ban was part of the socialists’ program for decades but they never did it. Now they oppose it because they say it will deprive public TV of sufficient funds to compete…
191 - if you know they much pay for Desperate Housewives it explains a lot.
From wikipedia: Due to its special status as a public service broadcaster with a specific remit, it is afforded free carriage on the terrestrial platforms,[21] in contrast with other broadcasters such as ITV.[
It gets a subsidy.
Privatise it.
Anyone else having hotmail problems?
185 - Without reopening the north V south debate we had at the time it was the author of the following (for the report on the same theme):
http://tinyurl.com/9lqa86
200. If you privatise Channel 4 you might as well just abolish it, because commercial pressures will push it to replicate what ITV and Channel 5 do already (ie. trash).
203 - “commercial pressures will push it to replicate what ITV and Channel 5 do already”
I thought it had.
O/T It seems that my earlier comment cursed Nadal and helped my countryman: Monfils just beat Nadal 6/4 6/4 !
187- I wish we could get TF1 on cable here in the U.S., but what can you do. Has it really changed since they sacked PPDA/”modernized”?
On a side note, I find that the French really aren’t that difficult to deal with, even as an American conservative. Their anti-Americanism, which I don’t doubt is fiery and deep-rooted, is tempered by their strict adherence to rules of interpersonal conduct. They are quite able to engage in a civil debate and keep tempers in check while not neglecting the de rigueur niceties of life. If I were to ever live there for a protracted period, though, I’m sure things could be different.
194- At the very least, the BBC’s anti-Americanism (BBC World News, that is) is not usually so blunt as to be highly offensive. Also, of course, most of the news is about countries other than the U.S.
201. nope, but can you explain what the Sun’s recent obsession with UFO activity and aliens is driven by? do you guys know something we don’t?
204. What about programmes like Niall Ferguson’s recent documentary series The Ascent of Money? Can you seriously imagine ITV making that?
And I know people will complain about a liberal bias on C4 News, but surely you’d have to concede it’s made to a much higher standard (and is generally less populist) than the ITV bulletins.
206- S and S
TF1 lost some viewers after PPDA’s departure but still remains the leader(a 20 years habit is hard to lose).
208 - OK, I concede… it’s slightly better than ITV…
It was more last year tbh. And no, I have no idea!
205: New coach for Monfils is working well - he hit bucketloads of winners against Nadal there. He’s been tactically inept for so long it’s quite a shock to see him take the right gameplan, and stick with it throughout an entire match. Looks like he’ll be top 10 in the next few months though, so finally some progress (think he was injured at this time last year, so no points to defend).
Also, imo this is yet more proof that Nadal has no chance at the Aussie Open.
Weathercock [107] Agree with your analysis but would add the public sector - which is (a) huge and (b) will be squeezed to try and reduce expenditure.
We are quite possibly doomed…
and there is probably no god!
212. Monfils looked good. managed to get 6-5 in second set on Monfils.
I agree Nadal has no chance in Melbourne.
ChristinaD - Good of you to post Fraser Nelson’s piece on Ed ‘Pinocchio’ Balls colossal bowl of tripe about the Tories effectively scrapping apprenticeships.
14,10 - After a lengthy period spent shrinking, the economy will probably, I imagine, stagnate indefinitely. Only those new apprenticeships that Winston Brown and Wendy Darling will have created offer us any hope of a brighter future. Everything else they’ve done recently to reflate the bubble has gone tits-up, so this has to work, right?
@215:
Pinocchio Balls?
Every time he tells a lie, Ol’ Fish Face’s cullions become ever more grotesquely swollen?
214. I never really got who all that stuff was aimed at!
213. Icarus.
Yep! there is the Public Sector.
I only included the Sectors which have made profits in the past and will make profit’s in the future, (I hope).
The Public Sector dosn’t produce wealth, it only squanders it.
What a superb bet that 7-1 about interest rates rising.I haven’t a clue whether they will or they won’t and that in itself made 7-1 a great price….now 4-1 (frowny face).
If interest rates fall any further they will be at their lowest since the reign of Queen Boudicca…. and I should know because my great-grandad was her Shylock.
Frank Field unleashes both barrels into the PM !
“During no move since has the Government been able to get itself ahead of the curve, and thereby perhaps influence the course of events. The latest example is over VAT.
It was a fatuous move from the very beginning.
And when we had a chance in Parliament sometime before Christmas to debate it I voted against, making a plea that the billions being borrowed to finance the VAT cut should be channelled into new forms of credit for viable businesses who might otherwise go under in the credit crunch”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3216881/field-artillery.thtml111
Weathercock - like it or not you would have a job operating without one!
But it has been the growth of the public sector that misled people to thinking that the British economy was OK. I am afraid that the inevitable cuts which may be “a good thing” and what you want, will delay the recovery.
193. Subsequent events suggest that Meacher has difficulty distinguishing Edge of Darkness from reality.
Oh, and how many TV series can boast an Eric Clapton soundtrack?
185 Neil. I didn’t see it, but here’s a guess… Nick Cohen?
166: What rally? It’s $1.51 and dropping now. There’s been basically no change over the last two months, it’s just bounced around the $1.50 mark:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/three_month.stm
According to this week’s Popbitch Mail out:
“George Osborne gets the tube to work from Ladbroke Grove and reads the FT, which fellow commuters say he has trouble folding properly.”
223. The mutterings about Brown have started again then….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7818347.stm
Not a slither of paper between Gordon and (St) Barrack.
Dave has a problem.
227 Andrew - Yes, and the currency futures aren’t showing much change for the expected £/$ rate over the next year. Of course, that doesn’t mean there won’t be a change (up or down).
228 To be fair, the FT is hard to fold. But George doesn’t make it easy for himself trying to hide his Beano inside.
161 - Martin, is that you firing the first salvo in the 2009 Poster of the Year competition?
Perhaps in a new category?
230. Dave has no problems, the Tory position will be scene to be right.
233 DC - I’d assumed he was just getting a bit over-zealous in providing extra background for the new PB.com ID-vetting policy. I’d hoped we’d be able to stop at one generation.
234 Very right wing indeed.
@230:
There’s a tiny difference between Obama’s and Tractors’s plans: Obama’s plan makes sense.
236 Obama said he would launch an “unprecedented effort” to “eliminate unwise and unnecessary spending”. Pity Brown never thought of that.
234. Reining in public spending and telling people to tighten their belts in a recession? I’m not sure he will be “seen to be right”. In fact, I think he will be seen to be a complete nicompoop as his policies will actually exacerbate the problem.
Top Bushlulz from the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7809160.stm
“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”
Will always by my favourite.
232. Ozzie actually *stars* in the Beano as Walter the Softie..
Silly Gordon Brown video time - apologies if already posted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KnApSVmWRk&eurl=http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/&feature=player_embedded
Earlier today, I wrote about the confusing language of Intrade Depression Contract.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/01/08/is-this-going-to-be-a-difficult-one-to-explain/#comment-899355
By an amazing coincidence, Nate Silver of 538.com is writing about the same contract, today.
However, even he got confused by it:
He wrote : The most pessimistic forecasts for quarterly decline in GDP in the Journal survey are 6.2 percent for 4Q 2008 and 5.0 percent for 1Q 2009, still far away from a sustained 10 percent decline in GDP over four consecutive quarters.)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
The intrade is only adding annualised quaterly figures. So in the case cited by Silver, the contract wil have a very VERY strong chance of expiring @ 100…
Q3 2008 -.5
Q4 2008 -6.2
Q1 2009 -5.0
— total : -11.5
So even if Q2 is about +1.4, the contract will expire @ 100…
240. That was a cracker, possibly his greatest of all time, although there are many great candidates for that accolade.
230- You mean Obama is going to cut all 50 states sales tax? (except the ones that dont have a sales tax obviously).
241. Stephen Timms is Plug
> http://tinyurl.com/7jjdou
> http://tinyurl.com/3ctm77
230. When do I get my $1000 tax cut then ?
Don’t say VAT as I’m not buying a car or a bed this year.
230. Even the Beeb spots a flaw in St.Barack’s plan to save the universe -
‘However, the proposals also appear to contain money that might not actually be spent for several years, such as plans to rebuild the electric power grid and buy billions of dollars of computers and software for the health care sector.’
“For a century and a half now, America and Japan have formed one of the great and enduring alliances of modern times.”
Tokyo, 18 February, 2002
Not as bad as Reagans “We begin bombing Russia in 5min” though.
“”First, let me make it very clear, poor people aren’t necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be not rich doesn’t mean you’re willing to kill.”
Washington DC, 19 May, 2003
We truly have lost a great president.
245. simon9999: You mean Obama is going to cut all 50 states sales tax?
All 57 states’ sales tax.
251. 57 ???? Are you counting Puerto Rico, Guam etc as states?
246. Separated at birth! Are there any other Beano lookylikies?
252- You missed the joke, I’m afraid.
One 538.com commenter puts it very clearly:
The reason the Intrade depression contract is trading so high is that it is terribly, terribly written. If you look at the fine print, they will calculate whether the economy has contracted 10% by adding together the quarterly numbers. The annualized quarterly numbers. So if each quarter comes in at -3.0%, for a total annual change of -3.0%, they would add 3+3+3+3 and decide we are in a Depression. The contract is really about whether we’ll have a 2.5% drop in GDP, and as such is terribly underpriced.
He’s right. And Silver is wrong on it. Careful.
254. Clearly. Any chance of explaining it to bear of very little brain?
re topic (ish).
it is a good bet. We are likely to get 0% rates as the BOE have nothing else to offer except printing money….but it is not up to them anymore.
As I wrote earlier today, this is not as simple as it sounds.
At the rate things are deteriorating the Government will be unable to sell the bonds it needs for its financing. A run on the pound, a real one, like the Krona or Rouble, will force the bank to put up interest rates. It won’t work, we tried this in 1992.
The Government will then have to cut spending or go to the IMF or both.
We cannot support many of the predictions made on this site. -5% growth etc is not possible to balance the shrinking tax base, huge public sector and desire to bail out banks and borrowers.
So tell me, what odds can we get on the IMF running the country in 2009?
253. Hazel Blears = minnie the minx
256- A reference to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws
254 perhaps St O has a plan to split Texas into the 7 allowed for on accession plus DC statehood? Then no-one can say he was wrong….
259- Sounds like to me he thinks there are 60 states! Let me see, Canada, UK, Israel, Japan, errrr, Australia, New Zealand, errr, come on help me out!
re 247 My God, Ghost what sort of bed do you sleep in? You’d have to expend thirty-one thousand quid to save $1,000 in VAT. Hang on. the likes of Messrs Mittal or Mr Obramovich may well do that, so the VAT cut was a tax cut for the rich was it? How very redistributive.
262. This time next year a park bench..
According to the Evening Standard, (Rachel Johnson’s Notebook), the
Sarah Palin 2009 Calender is selling like hot cakes on Amazon.
Had a decko, Nice but definately not Naughty.
Obama’s electoral return is happening now.
Excellent widget on crownblogspot. It is a clock running down to the end of the recession as predicted by Darling.
American media objectivity alert: here’s a bit of investigative journalism produced by the professionals at ABC news designed to illustrate how “ugly Americans” offend people around the world. Of course, their idea of an ugly American is a fat, loud, rude guy or gal with a Texas drawl wearing attire bearing terms such as “Texas” or “Bush 08.”
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2009/01/07/abc-special-searches-ugly-americans-anti-immigrant-bigotry
While the “journalist” at the center of the piece went to great lengths in another segment of the program to berate people found to have negative views of Hispanic illegal immigrants, he didn’t bat an eyelash at a German woman who said that expression of pro-Bush sentiment was synonymous with expression of pro-Hitler sentiment. Moral of the story: Americans should stop harboring negative feelings toward illegal immigrants or positive feelings toward Bush in order to root out the evil in their souls.
and after 1 state McCain is in the lead!
Runnymede [248]: That is in unfair. If the Government promises to increase expenditure in a particular area IF (a big if) it is believed, than companies will gear up and invest to get the work. This will happen, and needs to happen well before the actual work starts.
Even better the Gov can issue contracts now for the future.
Bobajob please tell me you disagree with this statement:
“A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, which is the sign of a weak government”
Gordon Brown, 1992
242. Indeed that one’s silly! This one hits far closer to the spot!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DWq5nxOWHW0
The true competence of Gordon Brown:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jan/08/economy-gordonbrown
The PM should be put in the stock’s for malfeasance and idiocy.
Does Gordon Brown actually know what the truth is? Trivial this is but why bother in the first place?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jan/08/past-gordonbrown
Dick Cheney has just declared Obama president by 365 to 173. No mention on any ineligibility.
Gawd ! YOU Tory Boys do get up my nose.YOU are like a pack of feral children.
Meanwhile I am more than 70% certain to be voting Tory (yuk !) in 2010 or whenever.
Thank you URW, it is along time since anyone suggested I was a boy.
What is up your nostril this evening?
275
Are you giving odds against yourself/to yourself for doing so?
…..Youse Tory Boys are up my nose,Witan.You never stop and never have a bet.
Almost certainly I will be voting Tory next time but the very thought makes me queasy.
David Herdson is alright though.
MTF-The betting is 1-5Tory and 11-4 Labour and you can have 100-1 bar….which could be the value as my eyesight isn’t all that !
It must be those ‘Tory Boys’ who caused this as well!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6VaP1HB7Vew
I did have to laugh, despite myself,jsfl.
279 ROFLMAO. Sadly its impossible to verify how someone voted.!
Incidentally, I dont bet because I cannot afford to. The only bet I would put on would be if I got decent odds post an election defeat for Labour that Gordon Brown wouldn’t face Cameron at the first PMQ’s.
281. Don’t worry URW the way things are going betting maybe the only form of ‘investment’ left if Brown carries on the way he has been.
Weathercock
If you seriously suggest the UK economy is going to contract by 20%.. please consider:
UK Government spending is roughly 45% of GDP and is crudely fixed.
So the rest of the economy will have to contract nearly 40% to achive a 20% overall fall.
Perhaps you should reconsider.
181. I mentioned it because the Tories on here have been celebrating the collapse of the pound as proof of Gordon Brown’s economic incompetence. Now it’s rallying strongly against a basket of currencies it’s suddenly undesirable for the pound to be strong. Hmm go figure.
Analysts expect the Euro to fall like the pound did in the months ahead. They think the pound has been grossly oversold, and international investors are already moving back to the UK. Hence the pound starting to regain strength.
So pound weakness has been very temporary and we’ll be back to $1.70 and €1.30 levels soon enough.
@ madasafish are there any crude primers to Chartism out there? Charting for Dummies? I just ask because from what I understand it could be an extremely useful tool for helping to predict public opinion (via charts of opinion polls) and therefore useful for political betting, particularly spread betting.
Yougov in the Sun according to Sky:
Con 41
Lab 34
Missed the LD figure….
re 286 Technical Analysis for Dummies is a good read and does include charting.
last you gov was 7% wasnt it?
285. Bryan Air: the Tories on here have been celebrating the collapse of the pound
Wrong.
287. That would be very much in line with YouGovs last poll before Christmas.
289. MTF: last you gov was 7% wasnt it?
Yes, 42-35-14 (18 Dec)
289. Yep I think it was C42 L35 LD14
Re 287 nothing on the Sun site yet
The potential YouGov figure, as others have said, certainly looks reasonable. Be interested to see how the Lib Dems do.
I would guess the Lib-Dems will be somewhere around 15%
Well confirms the recent trend of the Tories nosing ahead more. Still don’t buy LD’s at 15% More like 20%!
No surprise that there hasn’t been much movement. I doubt if it will become clear which way voters are trending until the end of the month.
288. Thank you Chris A. I hadn’t realised they would actually do that kind of book. If I’m right £9.89 from amazon should pay itself back reasonably quickly (hopefully). I made money on Spreadfair (RIP), but then anybody should be able to make money the bull market that buying Tories and selling Labour was over the last year or so. If I do go in rather than sticking to more conventional betting I expect it would be much harder from now on. I’m still deciding about whether I will or not though since I much preferred the way that Speadfair worked by letting you make the market rather than having to rely on the bookmaker like with SPIN and IG.
“Tories 7% up in new YouGov poll” - reports: New thread
290 Sadly he is correct , the Tory doomsters on here continually attempt to talk down this country’s economy and the currency and one or two seem to be having a private competition on who can be the gloomiest doomster . Perhaps a new category for Mike’s end of year pbposter competition .
Assuming LD’s are on 15 then according to Baxter 41/34/15 would leave the Tories 9 short.
285 Bryan, as many have pointed out, so far the rise in £ in 09 is nothing but a modest retracement compared with the collapse previously. People keep pointing this out and you keep ignoring it. The so-called Tories are merely pointing out the irony that as £ dropped many on the left said it was a good thing but now they appear to be rejoicing at this small bounce.
You may be right about the levels you quote but I wonder how many of those analysts have their money where their mouths are.
re 299 well I’ve made a return of about 5% on my £2,000 since October, but perhaps it’s entirely by accident, or beginner’s luck. It still seems wrong buying and selling the same share three times in a month, but it seems to have worked, thus far.
I am willing to give 7/1 odds as well as William Hill for rates 1.5% or lower. Up to £1,000. First come, first serve.
you can contact me on elgreko@bloomberg.net