Tories move to 13% lead with YouGov
January 17th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 45% (+4)
LABOUR 32% (-2)
LIB DEMS 14% (-1)
Is Cameron moving back to landslide territory
After the Populus poll earlier in the week that had the Tories back with a double digit lead over Labour the latest YouGov survey, for the Sunday Times, is reporting a four point shift to the party in a week and a half and a decline in the Labour share.
This will be hugely disappointing for Labour who had thoughts that their “Do Nothing Tories” attack was resonating.
The Tory leader has been quite prominent in the media in recent days and as I have long argued here - the more that he is on TV the better his party’s poll ratings seem to be.
Later we should get the ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday.
I tried to place some spread bets this evening - selling Labour. Alas both the major spread markets were suspended.
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The sheer volatility of the polls over the last few months is what astounds me. I wasn’t expecting that at all, but the polls have bounced around so much that my immediate reaction was just “oh that’s interesting”.
The message for DC is clear. Keep on ‘doing nothing’ just like GB tells him.:))
Hey Stars,
Yesterday, we forget what might be THE ultimate taboo : sex with animals.
A good way, I think, to evaluate the intensity of a sensitive subject is to imagine an old white guy going at Oprah. Can he say:
– “I enjoy sex with teenage girls” ? No.
– ” I have 5 wives”? Maybe
– “I enjoy sex with a goat” No — unless, maybe, he’s from Georgia or Russia or something.
Just got to wait for ComRes to show a similar trend
185. So the Brown Bounce is definately dead then.
This should make our friend’s Johnloony and Wage Slave weep with frustration tonight.
I caught a snippet on BBC news that Amazon.Com has taken heavy losses. Can anyone verify this as can’t find a link to this?
“Do Nothing” never has resonated. People understand that by the nature of opposition you can’t do anything.
I think this movement against Labour is because of a clear realisation that the recession is going to be horrible and I would have thought losing Woolies has has a big impact on the nations psyche.
175- Can we get odds on whether Obama will wear a stovepipe hat during the ceremonies? If not, that seems to be about the only manner he has overlooked in which he could have furthered his usurpation of the Lincoln image.
“Everyone wants to be Lincoln,” says Harold Holzer, who has written or edited more than 20 books on Lincoln and the Civil War. “Is Obama overdoing it? Maybe.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az5HzIamy_NQ&refer=worldwide
There is at least one way in which Lincoln differs starkly from Obama: the former was the embodiment of humility; the latter is quite the opposite.
3- I wonder where the animal rights activists come down on that one? If animals are equivalent to humans in terms of rights, why shouldn’t they have the right to, well, …
With all due respect Philippe, isn’t there somewhere else you could discuss this? At the top of a thread as well.
On thread - yes. I think this must put paid to any talk of a February election. As the recession news drips through I think we’re seeing a steady loss of confidence in Labour, and the busting of Gordon’s last card - “economic competence”.
Looks like the tory children campaigne is really driving home the tory debt message. Very effect in my opinion, even though i dont have children at the moment, i hope to in ther future and i’d personnally be horrified with myself for voting to lump them with a £17000 tax bill. First and foremost, every mother and father will put their child’s happiness and health before theirs. This is why the tories would wipe the floor with brown, they are kings of the advertising war at the moment.
And just imagine what would happen if Clark and Davis returned to the cabinate, it would sky rocket to the high 40s!!! brown has no more cards to play. He is finished! oh, good canvasing there nickp
Polling Report Predictor on those figures:
Con: 373
Lab: 230
LD: 18
Poll was taken jan 15th / 16th and canvassed 2077 people - Ananova
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_3163728.html?menu=
It doesn’t say much else though….
In -out, in-out, shake it all about.
We do the hokey cokey and we fleece the newspapers
That’s what polling’s all about.
Mike, could you re-instate the ‘smiling Daves’ for old times sake?
Think what its affect would be in the bunker.
@9 (ryans)
Have people actually started seeing these adverts on billboards? I haven’t, as yet.
Very good poll for us tonight from YouGov.
6.Bang on the money GIN with those comments.
Seventeenth?
5.
“The only Brown Bounce that I have any interest in is that silly quiffy thing he does with his hair. Mind, that’ll make Chamereon jealous. I also think that mid-term opinion polls are about as useful for any purpose other than idle after dinner chatter, among people who know nothing about politic, as was the ‘regulation’ (sic) of Equitable Life and Junk mortgages.
The Com Res Poll must now show a similar move to the Tories. If it dosn’t or if the Tory lead grows by only a v. small amount, that will show an anti Conservative bias that is now inherent in ComRes.
13.
“Think what its affect would be in the bunker”
Or even it’s effect. What has happened to edewkashun?
A very encouraging poll - but let’s see what Com Res brings later!
Perhaps the message is that Camerons message of “don’t panic” resonates. If a policy doesn’t look popular in the short term - don’t just abandon it.
Brown & Co. look like the ultimate in poor quality spin-cycle politics, by contrast. On a very cheap washing machine
This appears to prove Anthony Wells’ thesis correct.
It’s over. Gordon is finished due to his hopelessly inadequate whiff whaff skillz being paraded on TV.
19. Carphone Warehouse shares rocket
22. Indeed, strong support for Anthony’s theory here. And another one in the eye for the Tory fainthearts of a few weeks ago who were taken in by Labour spin.
Btw. were all those cheery old ladies in Nottinghamshire pulling a fast one, then?
I was just closing a discussion we had here yesterday with a silly joke. My bad!
8- Philippe’s internet server won’t allow him to visit those sites.
‘This will be hugely disappointing for Labour who had thoughts that their “Do Nothing Tories” attack was resonating.’
The ‘do-nothing Tories’ slogan would have been effective if the Tories had actually said, ‘Hey, it’s only a recession guys. Let’s just sit back and let it take its course!’ That wasn’t really their position. Yes, they may have had a policy vacuum to begin with, but all Cameron has to do is flood the media with anti-recession initiatives for a bit, and the slogan is killed stone dead.
4.’got to wait for comres to show a similar trend’.
I think this is more of a question about Comres than the trend.
26, 27. Alright.
21.
Don’t Panic???
Cameron has been the proverbial Corporal Jones on the panic stakes. Running around like a blue erased fly making speeches on everything under the sun with no policy in at all because he’s been so scared of being overlooked. Then, of course, he comes out with this guff about Heathrow which is as believable from the Tories (they would always find some pressing new reason they hadn’t thought about before to reverse the position) as Jonathan Ross’s new book on “Humility, Russell and ME”.
COMedy RESponses versus YouGov?
No contest.
14. It was all over the news! every time they showed brown speaking about the loan scheme it was played afterwards. Incidently, maybe the adoption of this scheme in conjunction with the £2500 ‘golden hello’, both tory policies, have given the tories economic legitimacy (especially against the do nothing charge), contrasting them with a government who is wasting money left right and center atm.
3, 7 — Have you seen the movie ‘Zoo’? (Actually, I think a better title would’ve been ‘Ouch!’)
re 14 well there’s plenty of them up round here, but the Midlands do have plenty of marginals.
28 The initiative is with the government, in a recession. What the Opposition proposes is almost irrelevant.
Labour’s problem is this. Suppose they do really well, and we get off with a 1990-91-type recession, rather than 1980-81, 1974-75, or 1930-31, it’s still going to seem really horrible to lots of people, who’ll be inclined to vote against the government. Of course, if we do worse than 1990-91, it’ll be worse for them.
It’s yellow Taxi time for the LD’s!
Clegg gets beaten by over 7% - if this sort of figure happened on election day.
Good to see you posting Sean Fear.
We miss your contributions.
Hope business is surviving. It’s carnage out there for some lawyers. I have never seen a recession where it has hit legal firms either so hard or so fast.
Crucial, in my opinion, is that the Tories have been highly visible in the last month or so. Nothing hugely significant or game changing has been announced but the party, and more specifically, Cameron have just been THERE.
38 Many thanks. Yes, it’s very grim out there, but I think we’ll pull through.
31: ‘Cameron has been the proverbial Corporal Jones on the panic stakes.’
From the somewhat breathless nature of your post, you sound a little panicky yourself old chap.
36.
“It’s the Economy, stupid!”
You’re right - for Brown to escape in 16 month’s time he will have to be a veritable Houdini. And if that means the nation is lumbered with Tony Blair Mk 2 (Chamereon) then he will deserve to rot in Hades.
39.Yes, that’s true. Both Anthony Wells and Mike Smithson should take a bow, they have both been proved right.
41.
There’s only one activity leaves me breathless, lad, and that’s one I doubt has been explained to you yet.
Labour MPs who would lose their seats on this poll - with notables in bold.
Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West
Andrew Dismore - Hendon
Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
Andy Reed - Loughborough
Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
Ann Cryer - Keighley
Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
Anne McGuire - Stirling
Barbara Follett - Stevenage
Ben Bradshaw - Exeter
Ben Chapman - Wirral South
Betty Williams - Aberconwy
Bill Olner - Nuneaton
Bill Rammell - Harlow
Bob Blizzard - Waveney
Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
Celia Barlow - Hove
Charles Clarke - Norwich South
Chris Mole - Ipswich
Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
Christine Russell - Chester, City of
Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
Claire Ward - Watford
Clive Efford - Eltham
Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
Dan Norris - Somerset North East
Dari Taylor - Stockton South
David Borrow - Ribble South
David Chaytor - Bury North
David Crausby - Bolton North East
David Drew - Stroud
David Kidney - Stafford
David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
David Wright - Telford
Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
Eric Martlew - Carlisle
Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
Gareth Thomas - Harrow West
Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
Gillian Merron - Lincoln
Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
Gordon Prentice - Pendle
Greg Pope - Hyndburn
Gwyn Prosser - Dover
Helen Southworth - Warrington South
Howard Stoate - Dartford
Ian Austin - Dudley North
Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
Ian Gibson - Norwich North
Ian Pearson - Dudley South
Jacqui Smith - Redditch
James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
Jamie Reed - Copeland
Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
Janet Dean - Burton
Jim Cunningham - Coventry South
Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
Jim Knight - Dorset South
Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
Karen Buck - Westminster North
Laura Moffatt - Crawley
Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Linda Riordan - Halifax
Lindsay Hoyle - Chorley
Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
Madeleine Moon - Bridgend
Margaret Moran - Luton South
Mark Lazarowicz - Edinburgh North and Leith
Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
Marsha Singh - Bradford West
Martin Linton - Battersea
Martin Salter - Reading West
Mary Creagh - Wakefield
Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
Michael Foster - Worcester
Michael Wills - Swindon North
Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
Mike O’Brien - Warwickshire North
Mike Wood - Batley and Spen
Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
Patrick Hall - Bedford
Paul Flynn - Newport West
Paul Truswell - Pudsey
Phil Hope - Corby
Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
Roger Berry - Kingswood
Rosie Cooper - Lancashire West
Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
Sadiq Khan - Tooting
Sally Keeble - Northampton North
Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Tom Levitt - High Peak
Tony McNulty - Harrow East
Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
Vernon Coaker - Gedling
That’ll teach me to quote canvass data! I’m surprised, but certainly it’s a very good Tory poll.
SeanF spot on: ant wells wuz rite. Its the conomy, dumbkopf. Woolies collapse was the moment.
42 Cheer up-I start to feel resigned,(once again after a brief respite when the Tories were only c.3% ahead) that David Cameron will win the next election-it may well prove a rotten one to win,for many reasons
37 If Martin if ;), as Mike has pointed out many times LD incumbency and national trend does not correlate well. That said, truly delighted at the poll, don’t know what to think about Comres until Mike has digested their data from the last poll. As the recession deepens, Labours poll ratings will drop further. I fear some truly alarming unemployment figures coming out, and each redundancy affects a family, not just the breadwinner.
re 36 and remind we, after the 1990-91 recession who did the people vote for in numbers never before seen, or since?
The Brown Poodle plans New £200bn “Bad Bank” Bailout Plan
In an attempt to restore confidence within the financial sector, the Treasury will tell the banks of its plan on Saturday. It aims to announce details of the rescue package publicly early next week.
The bad bank plan has climbed the political agenda in the past couple of weeks as the Government has become aware of the extent of the lenders’ bad debts.
Sources said that a bad bank would have to take on about £200 billion of toxic assets. That would take the Government’s total commitment to solving the banking crisis to almost £1 trillion in taxpayers’ money that has either been spent or pledged.
That equates to about £33,000 per taxpayer. The total sum is equivalent to more than two-thirds of Britain’s annual GDP of £1.4 trillion.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4274083/200bn-to-save-banks-from-bad-debt.html
31. Wage Slave
What piffle. Cameron decided on Heathrow runaway in June 2008 Brown only decides in January 2009.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4152227.ece
47.Seant, Woolies going under really did bring the message home to many this Christmas.
44: ‘There’s only one activity leaves me breathless, lad, and that’s one I doubt has been explained to you yet.’
Indeed. No one’s explained to me the intricacies of tea dancing so far.
So it’s simple? Will the economy be back in shape by next May?
Disregarding ‘events’, Labour are sunk.
36. SeanT, I know that you are probably taking tea with Morgan Tsvangirai in Harari, but you really must keep in touch. This is no shoert term recession, but a budding Depression of 1930’s duration in the making.
Even Obama talks of two or three hard years for the US economy, but most pundits think that this is a optimistic forcast.
49.
Martin has used up a fleet of these taxis in his postings on here. I presume he intends to hire them all out for use when the Lib Dems sweep into government.
Nickp, to b fair 2 u, i thought u w were talking about comres in yr predictions - i was, anyway. I still expect them to show a hi single figure tory lead, not double digits. I will be happy if i’m wrong.
WSJ : Obama is planing “to create a government bank” …
… that would buy up the bad investments and loans that are behind the huge losses that U.S. banks continue to report, say government officials. Also under consideration is an additional and giant government guarantee of banks’ assets against further losses.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123214588361091677.html
On the ‘do nothing party’.
The problem for an oppostion in times of trouble is that they can all too easily look flaky.
If the Government make mistake, the consequences can take time to be felt. ‘Wait and see’ etc. by which time the story has moved on. If a policy is put forward by the oppostion, analysis can tear it to shreds in hours - however unfairly. and no one will ever know otherwise. Presentation is hugely important. As is timing.
If the Government are seen to adopt any oppostion policies - it’s hard to paint them as anything other than credible.
56. And Sean Fear.
I used not to believe these polls when it came to Lib Dem voting intention but i have been out canvassing today in a LibDem/Tory marginal in south london and was frankly astonished at the number of LibDem to Tory switchers.
They are not that happy about doing it but realise that the main priority is to get Gordon Brown out.
So the tactical switch may see the end of at least 4 LDs in the SW london burbs.
52.
How does dishonest Toryism get altered by dates? It’s still dishonest Toryism. The Heathrow thing is just like the guff on identity cards. Tories are dead in favour of both. But Chamereon is Blair Mk2. Say anything today to get in tomorrow.
51. That will frighten a lot of people. If Brown goes through with it, it may well finish Labour off for a very long time…..
62.
“the main priority is to get Gordon Brown out.”,
Explain to us, please, how switching votes either way between Lib Dem and Tory in a Lib/Tory marginal will affect the number of MPs supporting Gordon Brown one little bit.
38. I hope things aren’t too bleak in the long - term Sally, I am trying to secure a 2011 training contract!
54.
“No one’s explained to me the intricacies of tea dancing so far.”
So you’re not and never will be a Tory MP!
65 Because the Liberals may prop up Brown after the election in a hung parliament scenario, I would have thought was the plainly obvious answer.
65. If the Conservatives gain the seat from the Libdems it means that the Tories are one seat closer to gaining a majority.
I thought even you would realise that but clearly I was mistaken.
65 - Oh wage slave, we know you are not that naive
Stirring can be fun - we all do it
But it is clear that a switch to the main opposition party will increase the chances of a defeat for the government - as you well know…
65-Because they realise that by electing a Lib Dem Mp it would be one less Tory MP.
The LDs hold the seat at present.
I did meet a couple of Labour supporters though who spoke to me as though they had been briefed by Derek Draper blaming the whole of the countrys ills on America. Oh well he still had a Porsche in the front drive.
68.
The Other set of Tories are far more likely to prop up Brown. In fact it’s arguable as to which set of Tories would be propping up which.
70.
Obvious?
Ah, that’s where the phrase Simple Simon comes from!
69
isnt it two seats? One Tory gain and the LD’s lose one?
46 Nick P. I think people are just being polite to you on the doorsteps.
The reality is that these days finding any Labour supporters on the doorstep is a very rare event.
I wonder what polling numbers would force Brown out? Under 25? A Conservative lead > 25? Could Clegg see a 9?
63 Stop driving yourself nuts, Wage slave. Labour are failing and you just cant stand it.
The present Conservative Party has a lot wrong with it, (that’s why I’m not a member), and Cameron and co., could act sharper and be more with it. However compared to the destruction and destructive party, Labour, there is no contest.
72 Do be sensible Wage Slave. We know your views , but thats just utter nonsense.
22. And one wonders, based on Anthony’s theory, what the poll position will look like in a couple of months when unemployment has rocketed by 250,000 to 300,000. Labour down to the low 20s, Tories around 50%? Some potential action on the spreads here…
65. No-one believes the Lib Dems are a potential alternative government and plenty of people don’t think they are even a real opposition party.
“The Heathrow thing is just like the guff on identity cards. Tories are dead in favour of both.”
The only people who say that are the people who know Labour is losing votes — and so they should! — over ID cards.
All the evidence is that in seats where it matters to the Lib Dem then they do better than the national trends.
Where I think a declining LD share will hurt Labour is if a proportion of the ex-LD supporters switch to the Tories in the marginals - which is what I think might happen.
75 I’m polite to all canvassers who come to my door. Unless they were from one of the extremist nutjob parties (BNP, UKIP, Respect, Green)
74. MTF Indeed but in terms of how it affects Labour, the Libdems losing a seat is pretty much irrelevant unless it is a hung Parliament and on these poll figures that seems unlikely.
Judging by the demented warblings of ‘wageslave’, it must be panic stations in The Bunker, Nokia’s flying left, right and centre.
76.
I would love the blue Tories of Brown’s Labour to fail. It’s just I don’t want another set of Blair clones like Dave and GideO to replace them. You just want to believe that these fresh faced younger men could do a better job. i wouldn’t trust them to paint my outside loo. You have no evidence of any competence - I suggest you are hanging on to a comfort blanket.
84 “You have no evidence of any competence”
But we have plenty of evidence of incompetence in the current administration.
78.
“plenty of people don’t think they are even a real opposition party.”
….and plenty more, like Runnymede, who do not even think. But we are marvellous, for we give them each a vote.
I just hope that the market when made live again reflect this shift. I boiught Tory before Xmas when Labour were having a revival of sorts as it was obvious early 2009 was going to have bad news on the economy.
As I mentioned in the last thread however the possibility of a a second round of bank funding is likely to cost Labour further unless they literally stick their foot on the banks’ collective throats and squeeze concessions that in these market conditions are actually bad for a company to make.
People bought the big injection once but I suspect not twice.
Congrats to those bettors who refused to panic.
Just logged on and seen this, made my day.
85.
“we have plenty of evidence of incompetence in the current administration”
Agreed.
Ho hum. It’s cuddle-a-Tory time.
Any chance of a party switch to the Tories now as the wheels seem to be coming off the Labour wagon once and for all (hopeful post-crash bounce over, nothing but bad news in sight)?
66. Good luck with that. I will come back, it is just a case of when.
84:I would love the blue Tories of Brown’s Labour to fail
In 1000years, scientists will still be pondering over the meanings of these words.
84 Wage Slave, it is almost inconceivable that anybody, even the person you eventually get to paint your outside loo, could be as economically incompetent as Brown. Think about it for a while before you post again.
80. Mike Smithson.
I think continuining to rely on that premise is risky. Simply because it is one that seems to have existed since 1997. We have not had a change of Government since and it may be that if there is a clear desire to change Government such resiliance may be undermined.
Furthermore, in such circumstances you may well see a classic two party squeeze. I think we saw elements of both in the London elections and I think we will see it happen again at the General Election.
90 - I would be very surprised if anyone significant did the switcheroo.
ComRes/IoS
Con 42% Lab 32% Lib-Dem 15%
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/
Sorry. Its
ComRes/IoS
Con 41% Lab 32% Lib-Dem 15%
91. Cheers, I actually have an interview for a vacs scheme this week so here’s hoping.
97 - that’s what, a 4 point shift? You know Labour are having problems when Com Res starts going against them.
9% in Comres is not bad for the Tories?
96
Your on the ball tonight ~ well done
91 should read *it will come back rather than my Arnie Schwarzengger reply.
97 - Another interesting poll. Brown will be needing a new mobile!
99 in the past COMRES has produced some of Labour’s most dire figures - they just tend to be less predictable!
101. I’m cooking with gas.
Looks like the leading questions mostly favour Labour (unsurprisingly)
100: Not bad at all, seeing as that was the one which gave them only 1% lead just before Xmas
GIN.
On fire tonight!
Two out of two.
Impressive [if a little nerdy - which, fortunately for you - is fashionable in here - but be warned - it might not be down the pub].
Wageslave, calm down, take a prozac and give your fingers a rest.
You’re making a spectacle of yourself
92 I think ‘wage slave’ has been knocking back the Gin this evening and crying into his glass, as his idols the ‘Bullingdon Berties’ he talks so lovingly about, wouldn’t let him join the gang when he worked for CCO.
Excellent news. A Tory win now looks back on the cards.
All we need now are a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle with Ken Clarke back in town and some good, coherent Tory policies.
That last one looks an increasingly big ask though, sadly. They’re all over the shop at the minute.
From Nick P on other thread:Oh, and anecdote alert: based on today’s canvassing, I predict that the Tory lead in tonight’s polls will be back in single figures rather than the further rise from 10% that some have predicted. Yep, asking for trouble to base anything on canvassing in one area, but it adds to the gaiety of the site…
Hmm typical Politican spin there I think. Sure the lead is in single digits (taking that he was talking about the ComRes poll), but the trend is still away from Labour.
Sneaky guys those MP’s
84 Maybe you give the Tories an answer to unemployed painters/decorators-get them painting our khazis
107. Don’t worry Sally I’m firmly an in the cloest politics nerd.
Have come home cold and drenched this evening after giving my deliverers the leaflet version of the “Dad’s Nose, Mum’s Eyes. Gordon Brown’s Debt” poster, and getting caught in a hailstorm when I stopped on the way home to push a few out myself in the most exposed part of my council ward.
But nothing could have cheered me up as fast as this YouGov result, even if I know you should never read too much into one poll.
Interestingly, the pattern of the top level poll results is much more consistent than the regional splits. Most of the poll results before Christmas showed the Conservative lead narrowing, although it still existed; and the three polls so far for January seem to all be consistent with it widening again.
But the regional splits do not look reliable. For example, the Populus regional breakdown quoted in post 15 of the “Cheats Charter” thread had Northern England figures of 41% for the Conservatives and 35% for Labour, which as somebody said at the time, looked extremely good, perhaps too good, for the Conservatives.
Yet the YouGov European Voting Intention regional split, quoted with a link at post 94 of the Heathrow thread, had Northern England figures of 40% for Labour and 26% for the Conservatives, which I think is too far in the other direction.
One or both of those has to be significantly out: I suspect the position is between the two.
Anyone have any view on whether the higher volatility of regional splits within polling results is simply a matter of smaller sample sizes and therefore greater statistical margins of error, or is there anything else going on?
So the last three polls have Tory leads of 10, 13 and 9 points (neither Mori nor ICM have reported this month yet, and it’s not sensible to use last month’s numbers). I appreciate that these results aren’t strictly comparable, but that’s the most consistent that the polling companies have been in some time.
110. By 2010 the only policy that the public will care about is removing Brown.
So,
THE SECOND BROWN BOUNCE IS DEAD!
Sep 2009-Jan 2009
RIP!
114 - I believe that opinion polls are not weighted on a regional basis, only on a national basis. So even if the sample sizes were larger, they might not provide reliable data on what is going on in that region.
So,
THE SECOND BROWN BOUNCE IS DEAD!
Sep 2008-Jan 2009
RIP!
ComRes results must have come out while I was writing post 114 above, saw them as soon as I’d posted it. Or I would have said the four polls so far for January all seem consistent with the Conservative lead widening again.
97. Love the ‘questions’ in that ComRes poll! Give a Judge apoplexy!
Will the knives be out for “The Bottler”?
A Leadership challenge could well be on the cards as a result of this huce conservative lead.
116-That is all they care about now…
So even ComRes shows moevement to Labour. Why are you in fit Wageslave? Funny John Loony took a powder. Can’t stand the heat, perhaps.
Will Labour List cover the tonight’s opinion polls?
122. They can’t get rid of the Saviour Of The World! What would all those international governments do without Brown telling them what to do?
122 - I doubt it, he is safe until the crushing Labour election defeat!
With regard to the ComRes poll tonight, wait until Mike runs his beady eye over it, then we can discuss
125. Of course not. Though they may cover ComRes/Indys leading questions.
Two for two.
Bobajob, if you’re here, I am so coming for you.
I shall enjoy tonight’s lagershed.
Hooray 4 me. High single digit comres tory lead. Average lead is now 10ish 4 cammo, and the only trend is down for brown. V grim polls 4 labour. Theyve tried evrything. Its not working. Its anti-working.
117 How d’you get that wide Grin symbol GIN?
ComRes adds to Labour’s poll gloom - new thread
132. : D
132. http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies
But please don’t go mad with them!
One of the most satisfying aspects of the polls in the past couple of months has been the way Gordon and his pals were offered just a faint glimmer of hope in that they were cutting into the Tory lead, only to get a knee in the nuts as the gap has widened again.
Must be terribly disheartening *snigger*
“What do we want?”
“AN ELECTION!”
“When do we want it?”
“NOW!NOW!NOW!”
I have also been out canvassing today and in my view we are headed back rapidly into summer ‘08 territory for Brown and co.
One (Labour) voter said ‘bad enough to have a prime minister we didn’t vote for, now we have a deputy prime minister that no-one voted for’.
“time for change” came up again and again - as did groans and lots of eye rolling when we said there could be another eighteen months to go before that get a chance to have a say.
Out of nowhere, but the Brown rebound has firmly ended in my view.
125 - YouGov’s double digit lead for the Tories is covered by ToryHome & LibDem voice.
Draper hasn’t got around to it yet….. I think he ever will.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/01/new-yougov-poll.html
http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-im-alright-but-is-britain-10394.html
Has anyone seen socks
114. And of course, in the marginal seat polling last year, cumbria had the lowest swing against Labour, which isnt good news for your campaign, and the one one i am participating in.
I agree with the Woolies thing being important. For a lot of people Woolies is the place your mum took you to get your school stuff. It’s not just a big symbolic name it’s symbolic from childhood which makes it stronger.