ICM Tory share jumps 6 to 44
January 26th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6)
LABOUR 32% (-1)
LIB DEMS 16% (-3)
But the LDs see a drop to 16%
The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop.
Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one point but the real losers are the Lib Dems who see a three point decline to 16%.
This is very serious for Nick Clegg’s party because ICM is generally the pollster that produces the best figures for them. Could it, I wonder, have anything to do with the return of the pro-EU anti-Iraq war, Ken Clarke, to the Tory front bench?
One of their great strengths, Vince Cable, could be eclipsed by the former Chancellor who will start to get featured a lot in the media.
As I always say the Lib Dems can generally ignore the other pollsters but this must be worrying. The last time they were down at 16% from ICM was in August.
The confirmation from the fifth pollster that covers UK opinion that the Tories are back in the mid-40s will further reinforce the view that not only is Cameron heading for victory at the election but we might be talking about a landslide.
I’m not convinced of that and Labour will be delighted that it’s Clegg’s party that has taken almost all of the hit and not them.
The 44% share is exactly the same as that which Tony Blair’s Labour got in the landslide win in 1997.
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first
First - which doesn’t look likely to be the claim of terribly many LDems!!
2 Close but no cigar…
Worst for the Lib Dems. 16% with their best pollster is not a good sign.
3, as Monica said to Bill.
3 - Cigars are overrated!
FPT
Shall I be mother? -
Baxter gives a Tory majority of 72, with all the Lib Dem MPs fitting in an extremely large telephone kiosk.
BTW The Guardian headline to this poll is absurd - “Tories regain lost ground” - makes it sound like Cammo’s poshboys are just edging back into contention.
Fact is they have surged an enormous 6 points since the last poll, are 1 point below their all-time ICM high, and are on course for a massive victory.
“Regain lost ground”, yeah, like the Nazis consolidated their advances at Stalingrad.
Labour down 11% on who voters trust most on the economy. Labour score 35%, Tories are unchanged at 37%.
From the seat projectors:
Baxter: 72
Wells: Con maj 68
Me: Con maj 98
4 - Is if you aren’t a Lib Dem, but it must be depressing for Clegg & Co!
Labour share could be worse and will probably get worse. Looks like mid forties all round for the Tories though. Good news!!
7. Be fair Sean, the Guardian are going to lose a hell of a lot of income when the Tories get in, they’re bound to begrudge us.
I find this very weird. Yes Tories up, but at the expense (largely) of the LibDems not Labour. WTF? Something very exotic must be going on in the underlying splits. Or has Clegg been banging on about joining the Euro again…..
8. Indeed. That’s the key point. Confidence in Brown’s handling of the economy is - rightly - collapsing. Without that, Labour are nothing. Without that, they are back to the Gordon Brown of last summer, with increased anxiety about his competence.
They’re finished.
In one sense, this poll is different from other recent polls. Most polls have shown the Tory lead widening mainly because Labour was losing support. This shows the lead mainly coming from the Conservatives gaining support. I would like to know which is right or if both are oversimplifications.
It amazes me how the 32% is made up, if its all in Scotland and in the conurbations.. Are they piling up votes where they dont matter ?? I want to see a marginals poll.
15 - I thought most recent polls had the Conservatives picking up a lot of support recently.
From previous thread
‘301. Rather deliciously, I think the phenomenon and theory - of female bunching at the centre of the IQ bell curve - is known, to some less sensitive psychometricians, as “the mediocrity of women”.’
I think it was Camille Paglia who said “The reason there is no female Mozart is for the same reason there is no female Jack the Ripper…”
Geniuses both, you see…
Clegg hits his own all time low with ICM of 16. Just 2 above Ming’s all time ICM low of 14.
Could be worse! Fits more closely with my doorstep impression - I’m quite sure we are retaining the vast majority of 2005 votes, but am much less sure what the people who say ‘I won’t be voting Labour’ intend - they could easily be shifting from LD to Con or vice versa.
seanT, surprised you have time to comment - you said a few minutes ago on the last thread that you were too busy writing novels to answer tim’s demonstration that you were mistaken (or, as you might prefer to put it, a dual-tongued duplicitous dork of deception) about immigration. Hate to keep you from your work, old boy.
I would have thought this is actually a reasonable poll for Labour considering the other polls over the last week.
We know the polls consistently underestimate the LDs and it looks as though that is where the Toriies have picked up their increase from.It also shows how flaky the Tory support is.Any turn around in Economic fortunes could send them back to mid 30s very rapidly.
15. So, as Rod “no overall majority” Crosby always tells us, we take an average of all the polls. What does that tell us? -
Tories = surging
Labour = slumping
Lib Dems = stagnating
Everything else is statistical noise. Right now Cameron is on course for a very sizeable majority - indeed, a remarkable majority, given the amount of territory Tories need to recapture.
Following the Government demonising smoking, cigarette sales are falling and jobs are under threat, especially in a number of Labour held seats with majorities of between 10% and 15%. It is rumoured that Lord Mandleson is investigating whether to provide subsidies to the manufacturers of tobacco products or alternatively lobby the Chancellor with a view to reducing tax. A Government information advert encouraging us to smoke is being secretly produced at the site of a disused hospital in the West Midlands.
Correction. I think driving should replace smoking and cars replace cigarettes.
18, I wish I knew the address, I read a very interesting and credible theory by a psychologist along the lines that women tend towards safety and security whereas men tend for greater risk. He said this was because women are:
a) more likely to find a mate
b) limited in the number of children they can have
A man, by contrast, can have none, or hundreds, perhaps thousands if he wins big in evolutionary terms. So there’s greater male diversity. Which is why geniuses (and serial killers) tend to be male.
20 NickP. It will get worse! Brown’s unpopularity has not tested its floor yet. Start getting used to polling numbers for your lot that start with a 2 (sorry Bobajob but you are going to owe MC some dosh).
16. The Last ICM poll had the regional breakdown as (Nth, Sth, Mid)
Lab 36-30-31
Con 30-45-41
Interesting to see how it changes. It’s a shame the ICM don’t provide more granular regional figures.
20
retaining the vas majority of 2005 votes….., well NIck thats not much comfort as IIRC you got 36.2% at the GE. What you should be focusing on is that the Conservatives are up 11% on 2005 GE, and it doesnt look likely many if any are going to come back home to Labour anytime soon. As Dennnis Healey said about the 45% tax rate its core vote strategy, but how low is core vote?. More likely that Labours % will go south than the Conservatives who have been 40% or greater in all but one or two polls.
22. A fair assessment..
Nick Palmer is lucky: he’ll be joining the ranks of the unemployed just as Britain starts its economic recovery with the advent of a new Conservative government.
Can someone warn Gabble to watch out for flying Nokias tonight
NP - ‘Could be worse’. Brings to mind a famous scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail
The Guardian says:
The prime minister can draw comfort from the fact that this new support has come almost entirely from the Lib Dems and smaller parties. Labour support is down only one point, and at 32% is well above the low points in the mid-20s it hit in the early summer last year.
Which doesn’t look too bad, until you read the next paragraph, which begins:
But that simply suggests the party is on course for a big defeat rather than a calamity.
20. My work is done. I’ve reached the airport. This is downtime.
By the way, do you still want to use my slogan “Nick Palmer, he’s a ridiculous bucket of puke, but he’s not always wrong”?
I mean, I think you should: cause it’s honest AND grabby. You ARE an absurd, farcical, mendacious bucket of puke, as we all know. But even though the voters are probanly already aware of this, I think they will admire the unexpected candour.
I won’t even ask for royalties!
16. But what is a marginal in the context of these polls? From what LS implies, it’s the seats where there’s a Labour lead of 15-20% at the moment (ie those that would be very close with this national share). Anything with a Labour majority sub-4000 could be written off entirely and there’d be no point polling them.
13. One possibility is that the Lib Dems were high last time and this poll is simply bringing ICM into line with what other pollsters are finding, so the LD share could be more statistical fluctuation than genuine movement.
Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, btw.
Dire news for Clegg. But we should all remember that come a general election when the Lib Dems get more media airtime their ratings do go up a bit. However, will the LDs be prepared to stick Clegg? I think the prospect of ditching another leader will mean he’s safe for the time being.
The Lab figure is no surprise. I expect it to stay stuck at or below this level for a long time.
33. David Herdson: One possibility is that the Lib Dems were high last time and this poll is simply bringing ICM into line with what other pollsters are finding, so the LD share could be more statistical fluctuation than genuine movement.
Comparing with the ICM before last: Con -1, Lab +2, LD +1.
You could be right; the Dec ICM could prove to be a rogue (or at least taken at Labour’s best point in the cycle).
LD -2, sorry. Misread my spreadsheet!
21 - “I would have thought this is actually a reasonable poll for Labour considering the other polls over the last week.
We know the polls consistently underestimate the LDs and it looks as though that is where the Toriies have picked up their increase from.It also shows how flaky the Tory support is.Any turn around in Economic fortunes could send them back to mid 30s very rapidly.”
Er, run that past us again?
Excellent poll for the Tories as it shows the most stable pollster has them surging ahead once again, backing up the trend of other polls this month.
Lib-Dems will be concerned to be on 16% but will hope to moive back to the 17-19% region next month.
33 pt 1
Very good point.
Lol. Nick P. is doomed and his absurd posting on the ‘Broxtowe effect’ has lost any remnants of black humour that were there originally. I never believed the LDs so-called ICM high score theory - their tactics and leadership are all wrong!
LDs are definitely worried locally.
The only thing the 2 local MPs are not doing is appearing in Dancing on Ice.
Councillors are privately admitting that the game looks up for them unless something remarkable takes place.
I wouldnt be at all surprised if Vice Cable is the only LD who survives in the South West London Orange Belt.
Even Ed Davey could be in a lot of trouble.
LDs are definitely worried locally.
The only thing the 2 local MPs are not doing is appearing in Dancing on Ice.
Councillors are privately admitting that the game looks up for them unless something remarkable takes place.
I wouldnt be at all surprised if Vice Cable is the only LD who survives in the South West London Orange Belt.
Even Ed Davey could be in a lot of trouble.
…and further to my 37 (which I wanted to post immediately), that changes the conclusion. 16% equals the LD low in ICM since the last election (also 1 Aug 08)
35
Frankly you are making an assumption that the more voters see Clegg the more they will warm to him (as Cameron).
I think you may be in for an unpleasant shock. He does not come acroos as voter friendly but rather “superior” with little common touch.
Yes I know: it’s only my view.. But lets face it, he’s doing a not very good job opposing Labour. Of course he could be practising to oppose the next Government…
Sorry for the dupe..
42 - Vice Cable is a particularly good typo.
21. Four polls all showing a movement to the mid forties and a widening gap between Labour is not indicative of anything ‘flaky’, it’s called a ‘trend’.
13 of the 100 entrants in the PB prediction contest (including our genial host) are already guaranteed to be wrong on LD min (i.e. predicted 17% or more as a min).
13 are guaranteed to be wrong on biggest Con lead, and 19 are guaranteed to be wrong on Con max. One each is guaranteed to be wrong in Lab max and Lab min.
A total of 35 of the 100 entrants are guaranteed to be wrong in at least one category (one is already guaranteed to be wrong in three!)
As to the LibDem support it would be interesting to know how it was concentrated.
There must be a strong possibilty that the LibDems are losing ground heavily to the Conservatives in Con/LD battlegrounds but holding steady in Lab/LD areas.
Labourlist moves from 6.10pm to 7.10 pm, and highlights guff from Alastair Campbell on comments to his blogpost. Either they are very lazy, or they are just ignoring bad news. Its so a la bunker.
32. Now come on SeanT, thats a bit much, Nick, like yourself is a regular and valuable poster to this site.
Referring to someone is such a way devalues the site a bit, and i dont believe anyone should take that kind of abuse. Sorry.
46. I wonder what the Vice Cable plugs into?
;o)
Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Nick Clegg (LIB) Electorate 68,573 Turnout 0.00%
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
LIB 20,463 45.88% 38.25%
CON 13,499 30.27% 42.00%
LAB 8,414 18.87% 14.66%
OTH 2,162 4.85% 4.96%
MIN 61 0.14% 0.14%
LIB Majority 6,964 15.61% Pred Maj 3.75% CON Gain
Nick Clegg = D00MED!
Brown, thinking of his own skin will desperatly cling to the leadership until forced out or thrashed at the election.
However , he could salvage a great deal of dignity and respect if he calls an election asap !!
What this shows is that the Tory front bench should have had pro-EU and Iraq War people on it a lot earlier.
ComRes had ‘Others’ on 13%.This poll has them on 8%.Are ‘Others’ failing to get their message across ?
My New Year resolution was to stop poll-chasing.
Let me put to the forum a different way of looking at things.
Two factors have been dominant in 2009.First the bad news on the economic front and second the appointment of Ken Clarke.
Bad news for Labour and bad news for the Liberal Democrats.
56. Very true!
That’s why i voted for Ken Clarke as Tory leader before i was banned in 2001!
I do wonder at the confident predictions of many here, including our esteemed host, that the Liberal Democrats will achieve around 20% of the national vote at the next general election.I really don’t see it happening 16% seems much more likely.
Now, how to translate my view on national vote percentage into a prediction of the number of seats they will win is proving a much harder proposition.
54 It’ll be that Poster (paper not a person) and its position in Sheffield, discussed on earlier thread, that does it.
17 - The asymmetric slump in Labour’s Com Res polling in the poll last night is indeed the one that is out of line (and suggests that 28% is on the low side for Labour). Thankyou for pointing me to this conclusion.
Re: the big public projects to help get the economy moving again. Here’s a voice from the past with an uncomfortable message:
“The truth is that despite all the money Roosevelt spent, and all the regulation he enacted, the US economy still didn’t get back to 1929’s level until WW2 came along. Indeed, in 1939 his own Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau - a man who had been in the very cockpit of the New Deal throughout- wrote this damning assessment:
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot.”
I wonder what the Tory lead would be if Clarke had replaced Osborne.
56. OGH: What this shows is that the Tory front bench should have had pro-EU and Iraq War people on it a lot earlier.
Erm, the Tory front bench has always had pro-Iraq war people on it!
56 - Is that because most voters are pro EU Mike? (NOT)
60 quite everyone inc me was assuming it was aimed at Labour.. very astute Ted!
63. tedious idiotic moron: I wonder what the Tory lead would be if Clarke had replaced Osborne.
About eight points.
65. No, but quite a few LD/Con swing voters might be.
63 Tim that is an irrelevance as it was never going to happen. What would the Tory lead be if Brown sacked Darling and gave it to Balls, or what would it have been if Brown told the electorate he played farmy farmy?
52 Gaz. NickP MP has a perfect record of voting for whatever destructive nonsense has spewed forth from this atrocious government. You name a controversial issue - Iraq, ID cards, 11 years of budgets, dumbing down, etc, etc, etc and he voted for it. If you are really, really happy with the way our country is going then fine. If you think Labour are a complete shower of shit then it is spineless lefty lobby fodder like NPMP that are to blame.
There have now been seven polls this year.
Figures: (min-max, median, mean)
Con 41-45, 43, 43.0
Lab 28-34, 32, 32.6
LD 14-17, 15, 15.4
Some good old boys missing for the Lib Dems.
Kennedy,Ming,Cable(he’s there),Beith would have my respect.
67: if you try to leave aside what could be perceived as antipathy to Ken you could take into account that he reaches outside the core Tory support which…erm…the party kind of needs to do after 97, 01 and 05. In fact, he’s probably more popular with swing voters than Bufton Tufton blue rinses!
Nick P - I seem to recall a post you made a couple of weeks ago making the point that a lot of Government announcements were planned for the next couple of weeks and it would be interesting to see what effect they would have.
Well can you now tell us if we’ve had these announcements?
I think that whatever the Government now says, nobody is listening. You can only say you are taking action to save the Banking system and help people through the recession so many times. After that it loses impact and has no effect.
60. 54 It’ll be that Poster (paper not a person) and its position in Sheffield, discussed on earlier thread, that does it.
by Ted January 26th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Ka? What poster?
Potential Labour rebel watch. Labour MPs who would lose their seats on this poll (with notables in bold - that’s just generally notable rather than just as potential rebels).
Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
Andrew Dismore - Hendon
Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
Andy Reed - Loughborough
Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
Ann Cryer - Keighley
Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
Anne McGuire - Stirling
Barbara Follett - Stevenage
Ben Chapman - Wirral South
Betty Williams - Aberconwy
Bill Olner - Nuneaton
Bill Rammell - Harlow
Bob Blizzard - Waveney
Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
Celia Barlow - Hove
Chris Mole - Ipswich
Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
Christine Russell - Chester, City of
Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
Claire Ward - Watford
Clive Efford - Eltham
Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
Dan Norris - Somerset North East
Dari Taylor - Stockton South
David Borrow - Ribble South
David Chaytor - Bury North
David Crausby - Bolton North East
David Drew - Stroud
David Kidney - Stafford
David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
David Wright - Telford
Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
Eric Martlew - Carlisle
Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
Gareth Thomas - Harrow West
Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
Gillian Merron - Lincoln
Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
Gordon Prentice - Pendle
Greg Pope - Hyndburn
Gwyn Prosser - Dover
Helen Southworth - Warrington South
Howard Stoate - Dartford
Ian Austin - Dudley North
Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
Ian Gibson - Norwich North
Ian Pearson - Dudley South
Jacqui Smith - Redditch
James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
Jamie Reed - Copeland
Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
Janet Dean - Burton
Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
Jim Knight - Dorset South
Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
Karen Buck - Westminster North
Laura Moffatt - Crawley
Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Linda Riordan - Halifax
Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
Margaret Moran - Luton South
Mark Lazarowicz - Edinburgh North and Leith
Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
Marsha Singh - Bradford West
Martin Linton - Battersea
Martin Salter - Reading West
Mary Creagh - Wakefield
Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
Michael Foster - Worcester
Michael Wills - Swindon North
Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
Mike Wood - Batley and Spen
Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
Patrick Hall - Bedford
Paul Flynn - Newport West
Paul Truswell - Pudsey
Phil Hope - Corby
Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
Roger Berry - Kingswood
Rosie Cooper - Lancashire West
Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
Sadiq Khan - Tooting
Sally Keeble - Northampton North
Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Tom Levitt - High Peak
Tony McNulty - Harrow East
Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
Vernon Coaker - Gedling
Many thanks to runnymede and to Financier for theirs answers, a few thread ago, to an inquiry of mine.
I really appreciate it, guys!
75 Martin , the thread before last…
Yesterday, I spotted a large Conservative billboard in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, Blunkett’s constituency - the one about everyone being saddled with a £17000 debt. There’s no chance of them taking that seat, or even getting councillors from the ward concerned, so what does this say about their strategy? Are they deliberately parking their tanks on Blunkett’s lawn, or did they just pick the cheapest sites so they could say they had more posters up?
by Robert of Sheffield January 26th, 2009 at 9:23 am
52. Gaz.
You obviously missed the previous conversation; to be fair, it did happen a few weeks ago. I said of Nick “he’s a ridiculous bucket of puke, but he’s not always wrong”. I believe I was referring to his famed canvassing returns, which some Tories were pooh-poohing unfairly (or so I thought, and I was right - Nick was on the button).
Then Nick asked - playfully, I imagine - if he could use the phrase as a campaign slogan. I graciously agreed.
I think it’s a good slogan, cause it sums up Nick’s - to me - perplexingly dichotomous persona, if that’s not too fantabulously polysyllabic*.
I despise almost all of Nick’s views (I’m sure he feels the same about me). I think his behaviour (in particular) with regards to Iraq and the EU referendum was so repugnant as to border on the villainous.
And yet I have a pathetic regard for him, also. He has a certain charm. And I’m sure when he is forcibly retired he will come on here and say “I had to do it, for the party” and then we will toast his honesty, and simultaneously be glad he lost.
Ergo: “he’s a ridiculous bucket of puke, but he’s not always wrong” aptly sums him up, in a confused way.
*I have had some nice Cape Town wine
Martin Day
As you have such an obsession with Nick Clegg why don’t you apply to be Conservative candidate in Sheffield Hallam?
76. Nick Palmer MP won’t start revolting will he?
I hope he does - might as well have some fun!
The wildest question ever on pb.com?
S&S : Why doesn’t Brown pick up on Nancy Pelosi’s creative plan to abort America back to prosperity?
This completes the set of double digit leads and with 44% that’s a good result for the Cons and so far with ICM at least mainly at LD’s expense.
This to me means that the Tories can look forward to getting nearer 50% with ICM once that surprisingly high 32% starts to fall back below 30% as I’m sure it will - indeed Tim forecast it will reach 28% so its only a matter of time.
Of course another recovery in GB/Labour may come around Obama-time in London but for the next month or so, it will mainly be a curiousity as to how big the lead will grow to.
78. I see!
80. Firstly they would not have me as the Tory candidate, Secondly I would win as the Tory candidate!
Thirdly, I think I will be Bankrupt in 18 months time! 
Teach the F*cking banks to lend to me but not give me a job!
even Tim…
Jeff Randall interview with Cameron, Cameron is doing a great job!
79. For the uninitiated, this sort of post has been designated an ‘art form’ by Peter the Punter, but anyone thinking of responding in kind should be sternly warned that they will guilty of a crime against public decency.
I don’t buy the Obama/Brown bounce hypothesis
Obama is seen as new, fresh - a massive break from the past
Brown is the past, old, tarnished and deeply unpopular
I can’t see much of the Obama gloss transferring to our Glorious Leader.
83. I don’t think Obama’s visit will make a half-point difference to the poll stats. Labour are deluding themselves if they believe otherwise.
He’s a nice charismatic leader of another country. Is all.
81 When the writing is writ large on the wall some Labour MP’s will go native, but I doubt it will be the uber loyalists.
Questions:
1. Does Brown Bounce II strongly suggest that in future anticipate Brown Bounce III and perhaps even IV before next General Election?
2. Will confirmation that Conservatives under Cameron have stablized their support in low 40s and appear likely to maintain this (baring MAJOR success by Brown and/or Labour) through GE, will this move Clegg and Liberal Democrats further along toward potential/actual coalition?
3. How would Lab-LibDem coalition likely play out in GE leadup, campaign, result?
4. IF President Obama achieves some success in first 100 days and beyond, at least thru 2009 and into 2010, will Gordon Brown and Labour be able to benefit for UK economy and thus with UK voters?
89. Yes Obama is hardly going to want to tarnish his image with Brown either!
20 - Nick P
“Yesterday morning I did a ring round of colleagues and the view was the same: it doesn’t feel too bad, there’s no open hostility, you don’t sense a rush to Labour…
Look at the detail and one in ten of our supporters has gone wobbly. We’re going to be washed away.”
Gyles Brandreth M.P. Diaries 21st April 1997
He lost the City of Chester by 10,553 votes.
I respect you and am so pleased that you contribute to PB.com, but you and your party are in big trouble, unless something extraordinary happens.
Obama’s Inaugural Address…
… contains the word/verb WORK 5 times:
– “It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.”
– “Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. ”
– “Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.”
– “Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.”
– “For everywhere we look, there is work to be done.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/us/politics/20text-obama.html
89. It might make a difference if Obama airs his less-than-flattering views about Cameron again!
Barack’s illegal immigrant auntie is still on the lam:
http://www.kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=9730908&nav=HMO6HMaY
“She spent time in Boston and is now reportedly living in Cleveland. She’s fighting deportation and was in Washington for Obama’s inauguration last week. The White House says it will not get involved, and Onyango’s case will be handled like any other.”
She’s also getting special treatment, this time thanks to President Bush:
“A rule quietly imposed by the Bush administration right before Barack Obama was elected president remains in place. It requires immigration agents to get approval from higher-ups before arresting fugitives in cases where the arrest might generate what Homeland Security terms “negative media or congressional interest.” The department’s directive was issued October 31st, hours before The Associated Press disclosed the illegal status of Obama’s aunt from Kenya. Zeituni Onyango (zay-TUH’-nee awn-YAHN’-goh), was instructed to leave the country four years ago but never left.”
If she is to be treated like everybody else as Obama claims, shouldn’t he revoke this politically-motivated preference?
82- What’s the problem Philippe? You just have to look at this from a progressive point of view and it all makes sense.
93 - Any attempt by the LibDems to form a pre-election pact to prop up Labour will lead to an electoral disaster
Vote Yellow, Get Brown
No-one will relish that prospect
Obama’s working for a NEW AGE :
1) “Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age.”
2) “We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.”
97 —
95. What If Obama says something like - that Brown guy makes Bush look competent!
88. I agree.
The contrast of standing Brown next to Obama will simply highlight what a useless, has-been Brown is.
83. Obama may not help all that much. Sure, there’re a lot in the UK enthusiastic about The One, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to believe that Gordon is his mentor (or political heir) and therefore deserves their votes. More likely that Gordo’s obsequious smarming plus outrageous and naked political opportunism could generate a combination of amusement and disgust.
95. Red Meteor: It might make a difference if Obama airs his less-than-flattering views about Cameron again!
What, the ones that (as best as we can tell) Mandelson made up?
OBAMA AND THE SHOVEL
–> Sorry, the word WORK appears 10 times :
6) “The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works, whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.”
7) “With old friends and former foes, we’ll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat and roll back the specter of a warming planet.”
9) “It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break; the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours.”
10) “Our challenges may be new, the instruments with which we meet them may be new, but those values upon which our success depends, honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old.”
86 Sounded an interesting interview considering Randall’s past rather acrimonious dealings with Cameron in the 90’s - Cameron isn’t afraid of facing hostile questioners is he, not like Blair was in his early years or Brown has always been.
“Yesterday, I spotted a large Conservative billboard in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, Blunkett’s constituency - the one about everyone being saddled with a £17000 debt. There’s no chance of them taking that seat, or even getting councillors from the ward concerned, so what does this say about their strategy? Are they deliberately parking their tanks on Blunkett’s lawn, or did they just pick the cheapest sites so they could say they had more posters up?
by Robert of Sheffield January 26th, 2009 at 9:23 am”
If this was on a main road then it would be seen by many voters from the Stocksbridge & Penistone constituency.
106 - Indeed!
91. 1) Improbable this time. But then it was improbable the last time as well.
2) If the Tories remain stable in the forties they’re heading towards an outright majority so it’s an academic question. I still think a formal Tory/Lib Dem coalition is impossible in almost all circumstances because of the sticking-point of electoral reform.
3) It depends what the Lib Dems’ ‘holding line’ is. They might try to neutralise the question as they did in Scotland last year by saying they would be inclined only to accept a coalition with the largest single party, ie. there would be no question of letting Labour (or the Tories) back in through the back door.
O/T - http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/01/exclusive-daniel-kawczynski-speaker-has.html
Looks like Kawczynski has quite a potent grievance against Martin - and has no way of being heard.
That is wrong
7.
“Shall I be mother?” - Sean T
This is presumably after recent surgery brought about by extreme envy for that bloke giving birth to babies?
Remember, Baxter’s useless for anything except soup and all polls in mid term are for plonkers. The more store they set by them, the bigger the plonk.
20. How sad it is to see a member of parliament reduced to eagerly claiming a win for ‘his side’ in an ill-informed spat between two wind up merchants on an obscure website.
Surely Mr.Palmer had greater ambitions than this in 1997? They could hardly have been more limited.
As regards the Gordon Brown out on his arse market. If it happens this year prime season is likely to be autumn.
104 - are these the supposed “lightweight” comments? It all seems a bit unlikely somehow… (that a politician with Obama’s experience would make such a claim of another).
98.
“any attempt by the LibDems to form a pre-election pact to prop up Labour….. ”
something with roughly the same odds as ‘Simple’ Simon making a single coherent contribution to these threads.
86 I went to watch as soon as I saw your post. Let noone be in any doubt, from what I saw that was superb.
114.
Back-handed compliment time!
114. I don’t see why if it was in private. My own view as soon as I heard it was that it had the air of authenticity about it - I don’t know where Peter Mandelson comes into the equation, but perhaps LS will explain.
91.
“How would Lab-LibDem coalition likely play out in GE leadup,”
As a boring repetitive baseless wind-up by a couple of tired Tory trolls?
106. Hopefully when Cameron wins the next election we’ll have a Prime Minister that isn’t too scared to show his face on Question Time every once in a while. Astonishingly its now 12 years and counting since Brown did QT! What a pathetic yellow belly coward!
Stars, — for ye, in case you missed in your favorite newspapers:
NATIONALISATION IS HAPPENING NOW
[M]ost members of the Obama economic team concede that the rapid deterioration of the country’s biggest banks, notably Bank of America and Citigroup, is bound to require far larger investments of taxpayer money, atop the more than $300 billion of taxpayer money already poured into those two financial institutions and hundreds of others.
But if hundreds of billions of dollars of new investment is needed … what do taxpayers get in return?
So far, President Obama’s top aides have steered clear of the word entirely, and they are still actively discussing other alternatives, including creating a “bad bank” that would nationalize the worst nonperforming loans by taking them off the hands of financial institutions without actually taking ownership of the banks. Others talk of de facto nationalization, in which the government owns a sizeable chunk of the banks but not a majority…
That has already happened …
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/business/economy/26banks.html
Have to catch a train; I’m back in 3 hours.
118.
“I don’t know where Peter Mandelson comes into the equation,”
Ask GideO - I’m sure Mandy’s contributions helped him to firm up his figures when he was feeling all at sea.
120, a PM shouldn’t go on QT all the time. But once a year, or even prior to an election seems fair enough. I still wonder if Brown will do it.
120 - I think PM’s rarley do the normal Question Time programmes.
I thought cameron gave a good interview on sky with jeff Randall,the more I see him,the more I think PM in waiting.
120. Leaving aside the election specials when they appear on an individual basis, when was the last time the current leader of either the Conservatives or Labour appeared on Question Time? I’m not sure it’s ever happened.
123 - Maybe he will have an important reconciliation meeting with Prudence that day!
124. But Chancellors do, he didnt!!!
“93 - Any attempt by the LibDems to form a pre-election pact to prop up Labour will lead to an electoral disaster”
A LD-Lab pre-election pact would be the one scenario which would lead to Clegg losing to the Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam.
123 Just remember the word courage. I doubt it
124. I think Blair did one actually just after euan got bollocksed and caught by the police underage! IIRC Blair stopped for half a pint )Lightweight!) on the way back from appearing on questiontime in a country pub!
125 - He was good and actually answered the questions.
103 cont. Thinking back… IIRC SuperMac got Kennedy over for a visit in ‘63, got plenty kudos, hoping that it would improve Tory chances in the next GE (held the following year). It didn’t. And he wasn’t in the hole that Brown’s in and was a smart political operator to boot. If Gordo is hoping to rewrite history, I think he’s going to be sadly disappointed.
Thanks Philippe and bon voyage. It will be fascinating to see what Obama and his team do about all these problems over the next few months, as this is finally and unavoidably the time for action rather than words.
128 - True, true!
126. Tony Blair used to do QT at least once a year (as did the leaders of the Tories and Lib-Dems)
125 I am going to look to see if the full DC interview with Jeff Randall is on the red button. but I repeat the last 12 mins or so he looked composed, unruffled and ANSWERED the questions.
133, I could be wrong (well before my time) but wasn’t SuperMac a serious, not ironic, nickname? Much unlike SuperGord. And didn’t SuperMac actually win elections?
136. I’m racking my brains and I honestly don’t remember that, unless you’re thinking of the individual leader specials. Liberal Democrat leaders have always done QT, but not the leaders of the other two parties.
56
“What this shows is that the Tory front bench should have had pro-EU and Iraq War people on it a lot earlier.”
Sorry Mike but that is garbage. The change in polling has little or nothing to do with Clarke and everything to do with Labour and its mishandling of the economy. The squeeze in Lib Dem vote seen here is just that, classic 3rd party squeeze as peple realise they will do anything to get rid of Labour.
More to the point who else pro EU would you have on the front bench?Clarke’s popularity is in spite of his EU views not because of them. People hold their noses and accept Clarke because he is a good political operator and certainly not because of his EU views.
I would also point out that we are seeing the mdeia doing exactly what I predicted which is looking at any and all differences between Clarke and Cameron and magifying them out of all proportion. Whilst Brown is so deeply unpopular that doesn’t make much difference but the drip drip of ’split’ news will do nothing to help the Tory cause in the long run.
137 - I’m hoping Randall can persuade Gordon on the show. That would be an interview worth getting popcorn in for!
138. Semi-serious, I think. Started in Private Eye (most things did around then). But he was a devious old bugger, waffling on like a character from Wodehouse while possessing one of the most astute political brains of the time.
118. Red Meteor: My own view as soon as I heard it was that it had the air of authenticity about it
What, because it fits with your ideas about Cameron?
I don’t know where Peter Mandelson comes into the equation
Well, the report was published in the New Statesman, and the author wrote “I have been told Obama exclaimed…”
Doesn’t take a genius to work out where the source came from, since the Obama camp has nothign to gain from leaking to the NS…
Wasntt he interviwed by three of them on SKY a while back, sort of a car crash IIRC?
Gaz, appreciate your support, but it’s OK - either seanT has mellowed or I’ve got used to him, but his insults are harmless entertainment. Patrick hasn’t quite got the same flair - it’s saloon bar brawler more than saloon bar wit.
As for 1997 aspirations, runnymede - sure, a minimum wage, doubling foreign aid, 11 years of steady prosperity, 75% reduction in hospital waiting time, and end to Europhobia as national policy, etc. - you know the list, I won’t inflict it on you. pb.com and teasing seanT are strictly for coffee-break relaxation, and very nice too.
86 - personally I didn’t think he was that great
133 Semi-serious, semi ironic.
He did have the advantage that Jack Kennedy called him Uncle Harold (as they were related through marriage), don’t think Gordon will be quite as connected with Obama.
139. They used to do “leaders specials” shows once a year, every year, usually at the end of season (June and July)
And Martin is correct. The day after Euan Blair was arrested for being drunk and disorderly (was it in 2000?) was the day Tony did a QT special and was asked about the incident.
145 11 yrs of prosperity.. followed by one almighty crash ………btw Gordon only claimed 10yrs.. is this spin inflation?
142, sounds vaguely Borisish
147, except in Brown’s fantasy world, where he is hailed as Supreme Leader, with only his chief acolyte Obama permitted to call him Uncle Gordon.
143. “What, because it fits with your ideas about Cameron?”
No, it’s rather more because it fits into my ideas of Obama!
“Doesn’t take a genius to work out where the source came from, since the Obama camp has nothing to gain from leaking to the NS…”
Is that it? I held back on rubbishing the Mandelson claim, but only because I assumed you had a little more to go on than that!
145 It’s saloon bar angry in my case.
139. Red Meteor
Year 1999 Blair announces fox hunting ban
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1999/08/99/fox_hunting/431552.stm
year 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/822238.stm Second paragraph up says blair was going to appear - this is when Blair stopped for the half pint!
I have a good memory for bullshit!
148. GIN: The day after Euan Blair was arrested for being drunk and disorderly (was it in 2000?)
It was. I remember reading about it in the IHT in my hotel room in Kuala Lumpur.
(See, not only seanT can talk about their travels!
)
145 - Just have to correct a typical New Labour factoid…
Average Hospital Waiting times have actually increased since 1997.
Some waiting lists have been reduced - but the average time people have to wait before being seen has increased slightly.
Some NHS services (particularly in the area of Mental Health) have seen massive increases in wait times. 18-24 months for some therapies is not uncommon.
151. Red Meteor.
The links to Labour (can’t remember if it was specifically Mandelson or just one of his cronies) were dissected here a while ago.
16.”It amazes me how the 32% is made up, if its all in Scotland and in the conurbations.. Are they piling up votes where they dont matter ?? I want to see a marginals poll.”
I think that you really forget that there are other *cities* apart from Glasgow which are seen as Labour heartlands in the UK. And they will stick with Labour for exactly the same reasons as some Scots will. Even if Labour do really badly in the next GE, there Scottish MP’s are not going to be the majority.
And remember, Labour have been losing ground outside the central belt in Scotland for some time. They simple do not figure in some seats at all.
Again, it does look like the stronger the Tories perform in the polls, the poorer the Libdem figure….
Mike has talked of those lost Conservative voters from 92′, it will be interesting to see if a resurgent Tory party has the opposite effect on the Libdems performance, to that of a dominant Labour party.
The Libdems prospered under the New Labour regime when the Tories were firmly stuck in their core vote box. But, if this poll is any guide, they do badly if the Tories are performing well, even when Labour is down to a core vote of around 30-33%. The Libdems seem to need Labour to slip below 30% before they can see any benefit? A scenario which would be unlikely if the next GE sees a polarisation of the vote between the two largest parties.
Going to be a fascinating GE night on here. Mike, you, Robert and the team are going to be working hard to have the site prepared for the big night. What about setting up an election night fighting fund to cover the costs of having PB.com ready for it? I for one would be very keen to help contribute.
Further to my 156, it was buried a bit in google, but I found it:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/08/labour-get-closer-with-populus/#comment-875120
OT: the MCB again despicably boycotts Holocaust Memorial Day:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3292011/the-muslim-council-of-britains-disgusting-decision-to-boycott-holocaust-memorial-day.thtml
When ‘Sir’ Iqbal Al-Sacranie was leader he boycotted it as well. Infuriatingly, he was given an honourary doctorate by Leeds Metropolitan University. I dislike honourary doctorates anyway, I despise them when they’re given to arseheads.
“US President Barack Obama’s administration will engage in “direct diplomacy” with Iran, the newly installed US ambassador to the United Nations said Monday. Not since before the 1979 Iranian revolution are US officials believed to have conducted wide-ranging direct diplomacy with Iranian officials. BUT US Ambassador Susan Rice warned that Iran must meet UN Security Council demands to suspend uranium enrichment before any talks on its nuclear program.”
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1232643755596&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
That’s a pretty big BUT! We shall see…
Good point and excellent post. Incidentally, GE night is going to be crazy on PB.com. Has Mike got enough servers to cope. Happy to contribute myself, but not by paypal.?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/26/icm-poll
63% approve of the VAT cut? Whuh??
Am I being stupid, or do people really think it’s working? Of course people are grateful for lower prices, but no-one I’ve spoken to thinks it will make the recession shorter or shallower.
150. Better than Boris in some ways. The guys from ‘Beyond the Fringe’ tried their hardest to nail him in some skits that for the time were considered politically outrageous - and by their own accounts were driven frantic by his bumbling on and taking no notice at all. Yet despite acting like Lord Emsworth on tranqs he was involved in the Cuban Missile Crisis (British Intelligence v. helpful to Kennedy) and rallied the troops to survive the massive scandal of the Profumo Affair.
160. Just imagine the number of smillies etc when Sheffield Hallam is announced!
No doubt if Clegg holds he will
MD =
147- I don’t know… both Brown and Obama are Celts.
157 ICM tend to lump us Scots in the ‘North’ so we won’t know what the subsample for Scotland will be.
161 - I’m afraid that a sizeable number of people are not that converesant with what is quite advanced economics.
157. I’m looking forward to Election Night PB Style!!!!!!!
Though by 1am I might be too drunk to post and I’m going to have the champagne on ice, BBC Crica 1997.
163, hmm. If I weren’t about to possibly buy a new computer, I might get myself a biography of SuperMac. My intellectual appetite has been wetted!
158. There are two separate question - a) who was the source, and b) was the source telling the truth. So we have no way of knowing if it’s accurate or not, and it has to be taken (or not taken) on the trust of the author and his source. But that’s the same for an awful lot of newspaper stories we discuss on this site. I did assume when you got specific enough to suggest that Peter Mandelson had invented the quote you had some strong basis for thinking that, rather than just the fact that the author of the article happens to know Peter Mandelson!
168, undecided whether I’ll be on pb or flicking between the news channels. Coverage here will undoubtedly be better, but I’ve a TV in my bedroom and that would be much comfier.
167 - I hope that PB will do something special for Electon 2010. We certainly shouldn’t have any trouble providing higher quality analysis than the BBC.
161. wibbler: 63% approve of the VAT cut? Whuh??
Yeah, I wondered about that. ComRes was much more against. I suspect the question may have been fairly leading (subsidiary questions usually are)
Evening all
This is an excellent poll for the Conservatives and clearly puts them into landslide territory. For the LDs and setting aside the usual ranting and hysteria from some on here, it’s a poor result and there’s no point saying otherwise.
I’m a fan of ICM but it’s not Mary Poppins - it’s not “practically perfect in every way”. We’ve seen outlier figures thrown out before and it remains to be seen if this is such an outlier or whether it’s the start of a trend.
167
Perhaps PB.com should start a small TV channel!!!
How would we all look though?
173. “I’m a fan of ICM but it’s not Mary Poppins - it’s not ‘practically perfect in every way’.”
So it’s a bit more like Dick van Dyke’s cockney accent, then?
171. It’ll be exciting for sure. It’ll be fun to see all the lefties coming on here crying into their beer.
I’m hoping to link to the PA results feed and do my own partially-automated analysis…
And I’ll publish a guide before the election on things to watch for…
163 simply explained, I would think, by asking a starving man
Would you like a sweet? Yes please
Has it filled you up? ……
174 - I’m sure we would all scrub up well!
166. Certainly the Prime Minister and Chancellor aren’t.
168. Biographies of the time were dry stuff, even though Mac was a one-off. His WWI exploits alone are pretty unique for a modern politician.
What I would recommend is ‘1963: Five Hundred Days’ by John Lawton.
Covers Profumo, Cuba, the Argyll divorce case, Lady Chatterley, Kennedy etc., etc. Best to borrow via a library, it’s a collected book these days and not cheap.
165.”157 ICM tend to lump us Scots in the ‘North’ so we won’t know what the subsample for Scotland will be.”
Hi Marcia, I think that Scotland will be one area to watch on Election night. The four party system is going to throw up some surprises, there will be a lot of tactical voting from all the parties voters in some of the key constituencies, and this will really make the result anyone’s guess. And unless we see some focussed polling across the Scottish regions, we are going to have to wait until the night to see where the votes fall.
176 - Probably accompanied by exaggerated boasts that they will gain them all back in 4 years, or that Cameron will destroy himself in 6 months, or wait until Miliband etc is leader. Delete as appropriate!
183. For some reason that comment brings to mind a rather memorable interview Jeremy Paxman conducted with a certain Alan Duncan on May 2nd, 1997…
183. Don’t forget the Antony King comment! “This is a dreadful night for the Conservatives, they only won 450 seats! Thats 200 short of a full parliament of Tories!”
179
Our genial host could publish a dress code…
Seriously, though, a PB.com Election night party would be awesome!
183 I am looking forward to the random lashing out - at themselves, at Tories, at Lib Dems for letting Tories in, at Blair for being too right wing, at Milliband for being Bananaman, at Brown for being Brown, at Tories again for winning….
Bless, they will sleep well after they wear themselves out.
182 - I read your comment on an earlier thread. I phoned around this evening and can confirm that the SNP haven’t commissions any polls recently. They will no doubt commission one nearer the Euro elections.
186 - Hear, hear, I’d be up for it!!
184. I smashed my TV when shit faced and upset (a couple of months earlier) by a woman at university! So obviously i missed that! Still i remember 1997 night! The house i watched it at had all voted Tory as well! Shocking!
182, thanks for the suggestion.
168. The Alistair Horne two-volume biography of Macmillan is very good. Having just consulted it, ‘Supermac’ initially came from a Vicky cartoon and was meant ironically, though the opposition (presumably Labour as the Liberals were at their lowest depths about then), apparently came up with Wondermac first, and meant in similar vein.
185 I want to see Jeremy Vine’s election playground - a happy playground full of chirpy Tories on roundabouts and the like and then a grubby inner city playground with used needles and a sad doleful Gordon on a see-saw waiting for a friend.
Alistair Horne’s biography is worth a look. MacMillan was quite ruthless, but how far he ought to have faced up to Britain’s economic problems is an open question, after all his entire Treasury team resigned in 1958 - Thorneycroft, Bircha and Powell.
190. I felt like i was the only one in sunderland who had voted Tory in 1997….
185. Martin if you ever get a chance to look at the 1983, 1987 and 1992 election results programmes, you’ll hear plenty of “this is a truly terrible night for Labour” said in a smug Canadian accent. In fact, in 1987 he made the extraordinary claim that the Tories would remain in power into the next millennium. He’s just over-excitable.
Actually, if he’s got a psychological problem with any party it’s the SNP. He’s put forward the absurd notion that devolution would make independence less likely to happen so often that he’s now got a vested interest in talking the SNP down.
193. Surely he must use the Yellow Taxi for the LD’s!
That would be a good piss take! I can just imagine the Yellow taxi drawing up driven by clegg (Beeping) and the projected number of MP’s getting in! 
190 watched it in a house full of lefties (who are now all disillusioned or Tory) - miserable night. Biggest cheer was for the first Tory hold - we were 50-o down or something by then?
I remember that bloody target thing SNow had - the Tory targets getting obliterated, and the cabinet landslide…
ugh
197 The SNP could be represented on a Tartan flying carpet
Ali Salmond and the 40 McSeatthieves
183 I think the most enjoyable part of election night (assuming a Tory win) will be watching all the luvvies at the BBC grind their teeth whilst interviewing Labour MP’s who are trying to spin for all they are worth. It’ll be worth saving on sky planner for repeat viewing.
Con rule ok!!!!!!!!
195. Where i lived in a halls of resiedence - I was a warden! The other warden and i over a beer admitted to voting Conservative but very quietly! (It was a strange anti-tory atmoshere!)
196. Yes you are quite right Red! He loves saying it about any party! His accent is strange - I had assumed he from the west country and got the amirican accident at California University IIRC where he studied but no he is canadian! I think he is still at the univeristy of Essex by the way!
198 - I remember watching the 1997 election at home and still being in sixth form. I watched it all the way through went to school and then went out until about midnight to a party on the Friday night. How I didn’t drop dead throug lack of sleep. I couldnt do it now, and probably wouldnt even try!
198. We would be truly blessed if Harriot Harmon lost her seat. It would make the ‘portillo’ moment seem like a council election in cleethorpes.
Don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade here but on election night there’ll be quite a few pbers involved in the politics and a goodly number more who’ll be trading the night away so probably not the best time for a social.
What might work is something like the US election trading floor could be interesting, especially if Mike could get some interest from one of the big media companies (which might bring in useful income as well).
204 Or if Gordon himself got decapitiated by an upset electorate in Fife….unlikely in the extreme but boy would that make for good telly….
198
Now that would be a night of nights!!! What fun that would be!!
203, 204
Yeah, I went to a pub the next day after a couple hours sleep - hot, sunny but I met with fellow righties and we drank a toast to (as I recall) ‘at least 10 years of this s*** before we get back in*
‘Were you up for Harriet’ lol - I was up for all of them I hope to say - and for the Cameron car ride to the Palace
Delicious hopes
204. Doubt it is possible I am afraid - It is probaly top 20 in safest Labout seats: It is incredibly safe IIRC! But if the LD’s deploy two horse bar graphs - maybe they would win.
On a serious not: Surely many of the constitients in her patch are ethnic minoties who do not take to her femminist agenda at all well. Surprised the LD’s don’t have a pop actually?
I’m no fan of the Lib Dems, but it is truly baffling to see there being twice as many people choosing Labour as choosing them. (In fact it is bafffling to me to see Labour not on zero)
A good result for the country would be Con 44% LD 32% Lab 16%
188.”182 - I read your comment on an earlier thread. I phoned around this evening and can confirm that the SNP haven’t commissions any polls recently. They will no doubt commission one nearer the Euro elections.”
Thanks Marcia, but was I correct to say that the SNP did commission at least a couple of YouGov polls, which they then released to the media before the Scottish elections?
A pal has just called to say Lord Taylor has made a statement. I wont repeat what he said as its third hand. He suggested watching the news.
203 - Is that an admission of huge amphetamine usage?
Don’t worry the Tory Party is cool about drug use as long as its not in State Schools!
208 I remember that day;my friend went in a Conservative Club and played ‘D:Ream Things Can Only Get Better’
The whole building went silent,and the bar manager told him to ‘F*** off and never come back’ (He did’nt) 
204. Harman has an enormous majority and has been an MP since 1982 so if she goes, it will be a 1931-style result, never mind 1997 (so she won’t). Balls might make a decent Portillo-moment if it’s a very good Tory night, otherwise the most popular gain is likely to be Redditch.
211 - yes, correct.
208 - It might be worth trying to work out who Labour’s Portillo could be. Remember Portillo had a majority of 15000+ in 1992 which represented 30% of the poll or so. So it was a shock. There could be money to be made from working out potentially vulnerable Cabinet members with sizeable majorities.
210. I’d be happy with that
According to Electoral Calculus that would be
Con 417
Lab 78
LD 124
Con Majority: 184
That would do nicely!
215 Alaistair Darling might get a close run in Edinburgh SW-although the 4-way spilt in Scottish voting makes it even more remote-but even if he only held by 2-3,000,it would raise a couple of eyebrows
212. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Lords-Sleaze-Allegations-Recording-Of-Discussion-Between-Sunday-Times-And-Lord-Taylor-Released/Article/200901415210634?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15210634_Lords_Sleaze_Allegations%3A_Recording_Of_Discussion_Between_Sunday_Times_And_Lord_Taylor_Released
213 - No it is more that I was a stupidly geeky 16 year old with almost zero need for sleep.
In the interests of good govt, it is not sensible to have too-large majorities.
So those with that awareness should have voted tory in 1997, and should (probably) vote Labour in 2010.
Pb.com posters are a sophisticated and self-selecting sample. Even so, few neutrals, even on here, are that canny.
Re: 190 - I can just imagine Martin interviewing a prospective housemate. “You can do whatever you like as long as you’re a Tory”.
Hmm…
In 1997, I worked in the St Ives Constituency in the far west of Cornwall. I had last turn at the polling station at Zennor and gave up at 9.45 when it got too dark to see !! Went home, saw the exit poll and went to bed.
Got up at 6 the next morning, saw the results, had breakfast, a walk on the beach and then off to Penzance to await the declaration and Andrew’s triumph.
217. I’d love it to be Vaz - but it won’t be. Pity.
219. Forget ICM - the biggest worrying sign for Labour tonight is Patrick’s change of name.
219 - Oh dear, that was a poor joke!
225
198
i remember that - Con only needed to lose 17 seats all night to lose their overall majority and they lost the first 17 seats that they had held.
I was Lab then - I know better now!!!!
225. Red Meteor. Patrick changed his name yesterday - it was a jaw-dropping moment for me too when I saw it.
Meanwhile, I have Camberwell & Peckham (Harman) as notionally Labour’s 30th safest seat.
The SNP commissioned a yougov poll in August 2008.
230 - but not one recently - saving funds for the election no doubt.
@219:
Patrick (West Ham Fan) has become a floater?
It’s all over for Gordon now. Dooooooooooooooooomed.
229 - Has Patrick taken us through his thinking? Patrick (West Ham supporter), could you tell us why you are now open minded about the next election?
223. stodge,
Interest you say that! Actually I did not have to interview them but take them to the rooms allocated with their parents.
Later once the parents had gone they said - what are the house rules: I said their are none! I don’t give a toss what they do unless they keep me at night or cause damage to the building. Otherwise they can do anything they want!
I would say the same again but hope they would invite me to the orgies to document it if not take part! 
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
‘D Ream’ Things Can only get better now on MTV Dance Sky 344!
161. 61% aprove of the vat cut !!! What rubish - shame on the guardian !!! 12.5 billion flushed away, yet to be paid for by our great grand children ! For that cost I would suspend stamp duty at all levels for one year ( less than 5 billion ) and perhaps spend the other 7 on low income tax reductions …
229. Notionally. Have you thought of getting a few folk registered for postal votes? Beats a UNS any day - or so I’m told.
225 Good spot. I’d be interested to know what particularly has pushed the other Patrick off home turf so to speak.
1997 - The defeat of Peter Griffiths at Portsmouth North.
The racist piece of filth who ran on the “If you want a nigger neighbour vote Labour” in the Smethwick by election.
161. Wibbler. I suspect it depends on the way that the question is phrased - ComRes was quite negative about the VAT cut.
55% thought the VAT cut foolish against 38% who didnt
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-lose-faith-in-bailouts-and-vat-cut-1515727.html
Guardian editorial on the poll:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/26/icm-poll-gordon-brown-tories
235. I hate that song!
239. When he ran that slogan did he win?
217. Cabinet ministers’ present majorities (note: boundary changes mean that not all the seats they currently represent will be exactly the same as the ones they’ll contest at the next election):
Andy Burnham (Leigh) 17,272 / 47.3% over Con
Harriet Harman (Camberwell & Peckham) 13,483 / 46.5% over LD
Yvette Cooper (Pontefract & Castleford) 15,246 / 46.3% over Con
Gordon Brown (Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath) 18,216 / 43.6% over SNP
Paul Murphy (Torfaen) 14,791 / 41.1% over Con
David Miliband (South Shields) 12,312 / 40.8% over LD
Hilary Benn (Leeds Central) 11,866 / 40.7% over LD
Ed Miliband (Doncaster North) 12,656 / 40.1% over Con
Hazel Blears (Salford) 7,945 / 35.2% over LD
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfrewshire South) 13,232 / 34.9% over LD
Alan Johnson (Hull West & Hessle) 9,450 / 34.0% over LD
Ed Balls (Normanton) 10,002 / 26.7% over Con
Shaun Woodward (St. Helens South) 9,309 / 26.2% over LD
Geoff Hoon (Ashfield) 10,213 / 24.3% over Con
James Purnell (Stalybridge & Hyde) 8,348 / 23.7% over Con
John Denham (Southampton Itchen) 9,302 / 21.5% over Con
Jack Straw (Blackburn) 8,009 / 19.2% over Con
Alistair Darling (Edinburgh South West) 7,242 / 16.5% over Con
John Hutton (Barrow and Furness) 6,037 / 16.5% over Con
Jim Murphy (East Renfrewshire) 6,657 / 14.0% over Con
Jacqui Smith (Redditch) 2,716 / 6.7% over Con
Baroness Royall, Lord Mandelson n/a
226 If you mean the prominence of Darling’s eyebrows,then apologies for a TOTALLY unintended pun! FWIW,my change of name is in no small part to my gut feeling Brown’s govt is approaching the 1995-7 portion of Major’s,with regard the state of the economy and public finances-try as I might,the best glimmer of hope I can foresee for Labour is to only lose by a 1979 margin (probably with a couple of dozen less seats at least)
Patrick
It was yesterday’s great swing moment. I was up for Patrick!!
Seriously, a genuine political animal as we are on this site changing his position (even to neutrallity) is an all too rare event!
All to play for, perhaps?
Looks like the trend is clear - Brown is in a lot of trouble.
186,189 A terrific idea - it needs to be an all-nighter, say 9.00pm until 6.00am, something similar to POTUS Election night only much, much bigger. Speaking of which Mike, no doubt you have it in mind on 23 March to return the splendid hospitality provided by Harry & Co. at Kings X on that momentous evening. If possible, we need broadband access (even if we have to bring our own laptops), to ensure that the evening is not only enjoyable but profitable too! If it were to be grand enough, perhaps BBC/ITV/Sky would be in attendance, thereby ensuring that the booze was comfortably paid for.
246. Actually, I don’t want to ruin the moment, but Patrick changed his name a few months ago and then changed back again!
239 - not by election.
1964 general.
Just to show how useless these polls are IN RELATION TO ELECTIONS 16 MONTHS AWAY,
a MORI poll taken in the same week as we are now in 1996 (same position in election cycle) came up with 30;55;11 ( majority -25) with a ICM poll the following week having the Lib Dems on 15. The 1997 result, though significant, was not THAT significant. The Lib Dems hardly ended up in a taxi in 1997 GE did they?
Pontificate as you will about likely outcomes but do not use present-day polls to justify weak arguments. History (and common sense) is against you.
For those wanting to see a LibDem bloodbath, you will probably have to stay up late…
My models indicate that for the first half of the results, the LDs will hold-up relatively well, seemingly. The second-half is where things could get very nasty for them, if they are heading for big losses…
Conversely, SNP success will be heralded very early in the night. If the SNP don’t make a couple of gains in the first 30 results, the election will be a damp squib for them….
I assume that since Gordon Brown has delayed the budget to squeeze in a cuddly photo-op with Obama beforehand, he probably thinks he can also delay the election when that comes as well…
242.I have recently stuck it on my ipod, oh the irony….
250- It was LIBERAL OR Labour.You missed two words out.
250
1964 thats a new low for you Tim, Are you going to start quoting pre 1945, even Gordo doesnt go back past 1992.
I remember watching the 1997 election coverage with a big smile on my face that Labour had won. I was kind of shocked at just how awful it all was for the Tories, but in 97 I was definatly in the red camp.
239. That piece of graffiti had been on that wall in Smethwick for at least 3 years before the election, right next to another that said ‘Balls to Fascism’ (written by a friend of mine). I know because I passed it every day.
The whole electoral smear was created by the local Lab Party according to that same friend, who was a member.
Still, for the oldsters it brought back memories of a former Labour MP for the constituency - Oswald Mosley.
251 - and don’t use old polls from a time when polling methodology was known to be massively flawed to make your weak arguments.
244 - Are there any odds available on Geoff Hoon, James Purnell and John Denham?
233
(a)My realising public spending has become wasteful
(b)PC ness has gone beserk
(c)A perception our finances are on the brink of inducing a nasty run on the pound
(d)General unease ,at societal breakdown
(e)What benefit would it do the Labour Party to win a 4th election?
I could go on,but my taste buds are now awaiting a pint of Ringwood Old Thumper (DO try if you’re in my neck of the woods-I warn you,it is not for the faint-hearted!)
Ciao for now
Regarding who make a good “Portillo Moment” what kind of majority does the ghastly Geoff Hoon have? If he went I for would raise a glass to his electoral downfall.
251. Yes but LD’s could “Beat” the Tories in places Labour could not.
257.1997 was the only GE I didn’t stay up for, just had my third baby in three and half years, I simple did not have the sleep reserves to stay up.
A general question to all the polling experts - is there any sign that the intention to vote is up on previous elections? This would be interesting as it might indicate the return of the “lost” Tory voters. It’s unlikely to be an upsurge in enthusiasm for Brown or Clegg. Is there any way to tell from, say, the demographics of the change in voting intention?
245 Oh come on Patrick, the next time you vote Tory will be the day Hell freezes over - there is no more committed Labourite in the entire audience of PB than your good self. Many of us disagree with you vehemently, but we respect your opinion nonetheless.
256 - I’ll cite Neil Hamilton if you like.
258 - Powell was of course, far worse.
251. If you object to harmless poll speculation so much why do you bother to come on and post in the first place?
Repeating this every time there is a poll showing a 10 point plus lead for the Conservatives is getting very boring……..
251 - As our host has repeatedly pointed out, polling methods in the mid-1990s were unreliable, with only ICM having a good track record at that time.
Interestingly, the ICM poll for 2-4 February 1996 was Con: 31, Lab: 47, Lib 19
The result on 1 May 1997 was Con 31, Lab 43, Lib 17
I’d say that was pretty impressive.
266. From that comment you’d think the Tories were the only alternatives to Labour.
198:
I remember an interview with Cecil Parkinson, and the tories won their second seat while he was on. His quote was “at least we can have a leadership election”.
Very funny, I doubt there will be any Labour politicians with any such calm dignity come next May.
I think Labour had over 100 MPs before the tories had any, but I could be wrong. Momentous night, I had mixed feelings, clearly the old tory govt had run its course, and Labour needed a chance, but BLAIR - Ugh. Never liked him, gave me the creeps, still does.
243 - Yes he did win.
As did George Wallace in some states.
So unfortunate you can’t say what you want nowadays isn’t it.
261 - Thank you for your explanation. As another floating voter (albeit one floating in different pools from you), I’m always interested to hear other people’s thinking when they are changing their minds.
248. Peter. Perhaps Gordon Brown could confidentially let us know the date of the General Election so that we can put the arrangements in place?
259.
If you think that these polls are THAT much better than the old ones then you are (a) in the pay of polling organisations who want idiots to keep paying them for a bit of cheap news fill or (b) very naiive. I do not predict perfect parallels with any other election, my point is that if a week is a long time in politics, 16 months is an epoch. Poll shares now for the three parties would probably be within 4-5 percent of a likely GE election result in four weeks time. An even as likely as Alan Carr being hit by a paternity suit.
271 yes! I remember that, Cecil was the guv’nor!
251. The problem with that argument is that most of the seats the Lib Dems hold were won from the Conservatives in the 1997-2005 period so are vulnerable to a Tory resurgence. By contrast, the Lib Dem pickings in Labour seats are nowhere near as juicy.
In 2005, the Lib Dem vote was two-thirds that of the Conservatives; on this poll, it is now little more than one-third that of the Tories’. The gap between the two parties is not far off treble what it was in 2005. There’s no way that the Lib Dems are heading for anything other than serious losses if the actual result resembles this poll.
262 Shaun Woodward losing, unlikely, but that would be a particular joy. Ed Balls would be nearest to a Portillo moment.
267
You would cite anything from 20 yrs ago but its irrelevant to today.
274 - I think we can all hazard a reasonably accurate guess!
270 Yeah but a former Labour voter who doesn’t vote Labour next time round is still part of a swing away. Just not turning up will hurt.
252 Bearing in mind that the SNP could win anywhere between 7 and 27 seats, it’s a pity that neither Sporting nor IG offer a spread on their GE Seats tally - a spread of 1.5 seats should ensure a comfortable profit for them, so how about it guys?
267. Oh do be quiet Tim, your idiot leader was heard to dog whistle “British jobs for British workers”. Of course, he didnt mean it and he didnt do anything about it. I’m not sure whether to be amazed by his hypocrisy or his mendaciousness.
267. Just when I think you can’t get any sillier or more mis-informed, you surpass yourself.
274 Who says that Gordon will still be in position to decide the election date? Perhaps you need to check also with Harriet or Jack.
re 277. Yet today David the LD spread on IG Index has moved upwards - it’s now 44-47 seats.
I’m thinking of becoming a seller.
270. Red Meteor: From that comment you’d think the Tories were the only alternatives to Labour.
As a government, they are.
260. Not according to the link to the consituency odds page.
286 - That is odd I accept that the Lib Dems put down roots rather quickly but I think it is unrealistic to expect them not to have issues in seats they took off the Conservatives.
283 - Just the same as Enoch Powell and George Wallace(?!)
Ken would you like to back up your claim that less State School pupils go to Oxbridge than they did in the sixties?
252. Another tip is to ignore spectacular swings in the seats which the Tories gain. They will be systematically higher than the average. The average of all swings in all seats will be the best predictor of the overall result…
Mind you, all this advice is probably a bit pointless if the BBC prediction is as accurate as 2005!
274 stjohn - I think we pretty much know the date don’t we? Maybe we should at least take an option at a suitable hostelry. The Red Lion, near the HoC and well known MPs’ haunt sounds about right.
287. What I meant was that Peter had taken Patrick’s indication that he might not vote Labour as an automatic indication he was claiming (or pretending) to be flirting with the Tories. He might be for all I know, but it doesn’t necessarily follow.
re 251. That’s not the case Wage Slave. Just look at ICM’s record over recent elections - the Jan or Feb poll in the years before were pretty good.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-voting-intentions.php
277.David, I agree. I think that the Libdems are really vulnerable right now this revival in Conservatives electoral fortunes. And as we swing into GE coverage with all the accompanying media hype, the Libdems will get equal billing which usually pushes up their vote share. But this time, if the media focus on the seat spread and the mountain the Tories have to climb to unseat this government, that could damage the Libdems and prevent that election campaign bounce they normally expect.
291. Another particular joy on election night will be you coming on here and explaining just how it was that your election predictor came out so disasterously wrong as the Tories coast to a comfortable win.
286. I do wish a Tory with shit loads of money would put say 10 or 20K on the table with regard to sub 45 seats at the next election for the LD’s and challange you to it!
I know what you would say back to me and obviously i cannot do that but - oh boy! would you take it?
288 - Drat those are the three Cabinet Ministers I would be looking for a shock with. Denham looks potential given last years Council elections.
Jimmy Carter, who seems to have completed his journey from peanut farm to funny farm, assured us on the Today Show this morning that Hamas is trustworthy and that they keep their promises:
“Hamas can be trusted, former US President Jimmy Carter said Monday, in an interview on NBC’s ‘Today’ show. Carter spoke with NBC’s Meredith Vieira about his perspective on the Middle East conflict, and his new book, “We Can Have Peace in the Holy Land.” According to the former president, Hamas never deviated from their commitments as per the ceasefire agreement.”
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/01/jimmy-carter-some-think-hamas-is.html
@jsfl:
I suppose we should be thankful that The Guardian has learned entirely the wrong lessons from Gordon’s dead cat bounce.
re 274. The challenge here is that it will be a massive night for the site and a massive night for betting. Keeping those streams operating will be the first priority.
I liked the get together in the trading room for the US elections. Paul Maggs and Nick Palmer were several hours ahead of all the channels in making predictions.
The problem with election night parties is the split between those who are completely focussed on the news as it is coming in and those who want to socialise.
296. If that happens I will gladly try to explain the inexplicable…
299. Before entering politics, he commanded a nuclear missile submarine, didn’t he?
I think the USN ought to review their psychological profiling programme.
@301:
I suspect that a fair few of us might be at counts up and down the country with large grins and/or frowns upon our faces.
301 - Mike
I am very willing to help in setting this up, if you would like. It would be a great night!
268.
“If you object to harmless poll speculation”
The only people these harmless speculators harm is their own reputations (some way down the line). But they DON’T “speculate”. They state tosh with vehemence bordering on 110 per cent certainty.
There are two elements to split present polls from future results. One is the inaccuracy of polls (I would say about 3-4 per cent for each party) The other (far more important) is the gap of time still to come. Events in the 16 months till the next GE may go flat, or up and down or all over the place. If the eventual GE result matches the present polls it will be a fluke. If they come within 5 per cent it will be a highly-probable event - but still hardly a certainty. Otherwise there wouldn’t be any point in betting!
Some other January/early Feb ICM polls:
1996: 31 47 19
2000: 30 47 17
2004 34 39 20
re 297. I’m very wary about betting either way on the Lib Dems - my judgement gets clouded.
I’m beginning its could be sub-40 seats.
299.
“Hamas is trustworthy ”
I don’t think Hamas is at all trustworthy. More trustworthy than the UK Tories, but still not trustworthy!
301. Actually having people present at the count, who dont do what the annoying BBC do, and pretend to not know how it is going could be the key to success.
FFS, think about the crewe by election, within twenty minutes of them piling the votes up every single person in the hall new the result, but the BBC keeps us on hold until pretty much the official confirmation which was some considerable time later.
306. The only honest view of the polls is to note their extraordinary volatility…
302. Just think 1931 Rod.
309 new = knew ….. duh
307-Key is how you think the Lib Dems will fare vis a vis Labour and the Nats.
306.
“the only honest view of the polls is to note their extraordinary volatility…”
bit like the posters on here!
Goodnight all.
311 Dont tempt Tim, he will come out with a load of claptrap from then.
311 Dont tempt Tim, he will come out with a load of claptrap from then.
309. That’s why I found myself switching to ITV in 1992, but from 1997 onwards with the presence of Jonathan Dimbleby I was somehow able to resist the temptation!
301 - Election nights are fun when your political soulmates win.
I hated 1992 the most, knew as soon as David Amess held Basildon that it was over.
Amess, the man who went on to ask a question about the drug “cake” in the house.
Depressing
300. Indeed. You have just got to marvel at that Guardianista mindset although I thought this line was interesting:
Whispers are emerging that he is asking colleagues to take to the airwaves more as he struggles to avoid being branded as minister for the recession
Or is Gordon now trying to detach himself because he knows what’s coming?
307 - I think it could be sub-40. I doubt it will be sub-30 but it is an utterly unique scenario as the Lib Dems have never been in the situation of having made an advance and then potentially being squeezed. It could be that they are more successful at defence, or it could be that they have a nightmare. It is so difficult to work this out.
301 True enough, but it worked well enough at Kings X, admittedly with a relative small number of people in attendance - I think for those who were punting (most of us), the collective intelligence gathering ensured a most profitable evening and there were in fact a number of instances of free money to which Nick Palmer will no doubt testify. Paul Maggs, aka “Megafone”, meanwhile kept us all in check!
306. All three examples have got the Tories very close to their final result. All examples have Labour overstated by about 3%.
311. Couldn’t happen again without similar electoral pacts.
307. Fair enough! Obviously I cannot bet a bean! As I will be in the vanguard of bankrupting Britian in the next year or so!
Think I should start looking at Chemistry degrees or something scientific! Though politics will be always my first passion! The economy is dying!
306 Examples pretty close on Tories, not bad on Lib Dems, overestimate Labour (usual poling problem as regards Labour) so LDs up 2 or 3% on today’s polls, Labour down to 28/29%, Tories 44% +/-1%. That would suit me fine.
325. Indeed.
321 - I think a PB election night could be interestinga as at the moment I don’t want to be in a counting hall with scores of neurotic party workers. I’d much rather be among people who are either out to make money or actually have a reasonable analytical take on things!
324 - Why Chemistry/Science??
Let us assume, for the purposes of argument, that the Lib Dems will get a lift in the polls during the election campaign (something I think is more likely than not). Where will it come from?
Those with more constituency experience will no doubt correct me, but I suspect that they will come primarily from the following groups:
1) Tactical Labour voters in Lib Dem / Tory constituencies who have decided that voting Labour is less useful than keeping the Tories out.
2) Tactical Tory voters in Lib Dem / Labour constituencies who have decided that voting Tory is less useful than keeping Labour out.
3) Casual voters who have seen that nice Mr Clegg and Mr Cable on tv and will give them a go this time. This group is presumably not particularly based in any one type of constituency and will influence only the most marginal of constituencies.
Where the Tories are in the ascendant, group 1 needs to outweigh Lib Dem voters who have decided that the Tories are worth a go again this time (and if the most recent Com Res survey is to believed, fully one sixth of the 2005 Lib Dem voting base is looking to do just that). Given that the Lib Dem / Tory battles have been fairly static in three elections and members of group 1 have presumably been well researched for some time, I am doubtful whether this is going to be a silver bullet against big losses to the Tories. The Lib Dems are going to have to do exceptionally well fighting on the basis of their constituency work.
Where Labour are in decline, there are opportunities for the Lib Dems with group 2 voters. Will these outweigh the losses to the Tories? At present, this seems doubtful, not least because the Lib Dems so far seem to be paying lip service only to chasing this type of seat.
318
If you found 1992 depressing 2010 isn’t going to be a bundle of fun either.
319 jsfl - or he knows that he’s cr*p in front of the cameras?
303- Carter never served on a nuclear submarine but, according to Wikipedia, “Carter completed a non-cred1t introductory c0urse in nuclear reactor power at Union College starting in March 1953.”
328 It’s interesting isnt’t it because I think most Lib Dems are closer to Labour politically but their electoral opportunities would seem to come most at Labour’s expense. Clegg ought to be gunning for Labour votes.
330. LOL! Getting his excuses in early so he doesn’t have to stand toe to toe with Cameron in front of them more like?
301. Can we persuade Shadsy to allow some in-play betting? Get some early reports coming back from the counting halls before they’re announced
332 - Absolutely!!
The problem for the LDs is that all of their hopes are based on the false premise of incumbency + last 15 years of History. This mindset is preventing them from fighting today’s battles - they are literally stuck in the past. They should be targetting Labour but this is very difficult when to all intents and purposes they remain a kind of Labour-Lite - although this often comes over as even more radical because they never have to worry about actually being the government.
332- The top six LD target Seats where the occupant is Labour are either in Scotland or London or very adjacent.
They will struggle.
331. Thank heavens for that. And thanks for the info.
334 I think I am likely to be at Crawley, I think that should be a good night, expect to be on Pb.com at 3am.
328. The flaw I see in your argument re: Comres is of course the local situations. And that those numbers were pretty tiny to draw conclusions from.
I’ll do my broken record act, I think that the Politicshome marginals poll will be the best predictor of what happens on the night. Far more accurate than these UNS polls, predictions, and theorisings.
327. Well, as a likely bankrupt - not many places to go: hopefully the course will cover the bankrupcy term! Science is an area i have apptitude - even if many do not like it! I do! My thinking is declare bankrupcy and start again - I am too indebted to turn things round! I am just waiting to start a new career path. I am sick of fighting for the old - sod it! I own nothing outright anyway!
If anybody wants a safe bet, if there is a market for Kingston and Surbiton bet on Ed Davey. His contituents love him not for being a Lib Dem, but for being a bloody good MP who stands up for them time and again. His staff and ground organisation is formidable. Even if the Lib Dems polled 10% nationally he would hold his seat.
336. I could reply, but I went into such detail on what I thought about the Lib Dems strategy etc the other night that I can’t be bothered to repeat the process. I would note that incumbency is not a false premise.
328 I was struck in October 07 by the rapid fall in the Lib Dem polling share after Osborne’s IHT announcement (Labour’s share took longer to fall away). Many LD seats are the better off suburbs and IMHO a proportion of Lib Dem support liked tax cuts for the middle class and their consciences ere soothed by the fact Osborne financed it from the non-Doms.
Its those leafy well off suburbs that are at risk I believe.
Probably not well off Shieffield Hallam but who knows
339 Crawley that will be close won’t it?!
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!
Con maj 10000 min
Moffatt = move on baby!
290. I pointed out that the document you cited was wrong - it ignored direct grant state grammar schools. I gather from this pathetic attempt at distraction you are embarrassed by the idiot Gordon’s pathetic “British jobs for British workers” - hypocritical and mendacious as it is.
I don’t know where the base figure comes from, but it is frequently quoted -
“Thanks to the grammars successfully educating children from less-privileged backgrounds, state school pupils made up 62 per cent of Oxbridge entrants in 1969 - dwarfing the number from private schools.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-455414/Scandal-Tory-grammar-school-u-turn.html
Why is this likely to be correct? Because direct grant grammar schools were the best schools - they really were the cream of the crop, they were the schools that were undermining the old style Public Schools. Just as a handful of public schools account for the bulk of the entry from the independent sector, I’d guess a handful of DG state grammar schools accounted for a big chunk of the entry from the state sector.
318. Brass eye also managed to dupe some stupid Labour MPs like Syd Rapson with “trust me trousers” and Barbara Follett.
Just remember, Labour are more corrupt and more stupid than the Conservatives. Just look at cash for questions vs cash for actual changes to the law.
Apologies if already posted.
Obama has another dig at Cameron:
“With brutal frankness, he [Obama] recently summed up the three top British politicians he has met, telling an aide: “Tony Blair: Sizzle and substance. Gordon Brown: Substance. David Cameron: Sizzle.””
307 - Don’t give up on Scotland.
The SNP could take some hits over the next year.
And they are cosying up with some very, very far right Muslim Brotherhood front organisations.
329 - “If you found 1992 depressing 2010 isn’t going to be a bundle of fun either.”
Given your prediction record thats the best news I’ve had since Xmas.
347.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/thewhip/article2175088.ece
Putting the boot in… Brown - “Superman with his tights round his ankles”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article5593989.ece
Obama = LOL
344. That has been my point all along!
Clegg cannot appeal to one of the wealthiest seats in the country and try for Labour voters. Clegg is looking for a defeating even if LD’s do not like it!
The next election means a 50/50 choice Conservative/ Labour. That is it!
Clegg is knackered!
341 - Hmm sorry to hear that your in a bad situation. Well good luck with that!
345 Ave It you were watching Austin Powers last night weren’t you.
340 - I accept your point on the number of people in the Comres figures (which I would not place great weight on). But you must accept that the Conservative support must be coming from somewhere and logically their message must be at least as appealing to right-leaning Lib Dems as to past Labour voters. I am not sure why you appear quite confident that those deserting Lib Dems are not in seats of interest to the Lib Dems.
346 - Come up with some stats and we’ll discuss it Ken.
You can do better than a single quote from the Daily Mail.
The Brown quote was bollo@@cks at the time and is now.
341. Martin. Bankruptcy is a big step. It will stymie your political career - as an undischarged bankrupt you cannot be a councillor or MP. Although I believe discharge is much swifter now. And then again it will remain as a mark on your resume.
Ben Brogans blog
But so far there is no sign of a return to the destructive mutterings that pushed Mr Brown to the precipice in August and September. “We have passed the point of no return. It’s too late,” one told me. They will stand or fall with Mr Brown.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2009/01/brown-is-back-in-a-bad-place.html
353. Well i have been applying for jobs for a year!
no point being coy about it - I am knackered! My best bet is to think how to rebuild for me! I should have done it years ago!
359 - Eek!
Looks like the budget is going to be make or break for Darling- I’m saying break:)!
254 isnt that ooooh behave?!
Tim + Gabble = LOL squared
356. Your stats were wrong. I can’t find the base data on the net - at the moment, we can conclude I’m probably right, but not for certain. I’m willing to leave it at that. If you want to contradict that, you can find the data.
The quote was so representative of Brown - a lie and hypocritical in the extreme. So, you’re right, it is ballacks, and so typical of the man.
I hope I speak for several P.B.C’s
Peter Hain- I do not accept your apology
I demand satisfaction I am sick of your ilk commiting frauds that would land the rest us in jail.
“Tories defend religious opt-out from homophobic incitement law”
“The Shadow Justice Secretary, Dominic Grieve has expressed support for an amendment that could weaken laws protecting lesbian, gay and bisexual people.
In May the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act created an offence of incitement to hatred on the grounds of sexual orientation.
However, an amendment by Tory peer Lord Waddington, a former Home Secretary under Margaret Thatcher, was added to the legislation.
His amendment to the offence of using threatening language with intent to stir up hatred on grounds of sexual orientation said that urging someone to change their sexuality should not count “of itself” as threatening or as intended to stir up hatred.
“Tory MP John Bercow said the Waddington amendment was a wrecking measure and called for it to be overturned.”
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-10886.html
355. I’m not sure I am. The politicshome poll has us losing a little under 20 seats. What I think will play well in a GE campaign is tax cuts for middle and working class.
I think that’ll hold those flirting with the Tories enough to ensure we will need more than a vehicle for hire charging by time of journey and coloured pantone 1235 to transport our affiliated Members of Parliament around.
363 - You made the claim Ken
“The proportion of pupils from public schools going to Oxbridge hasnt changed much in recent years - there has been a slight rise since around 2000. Do you have any figures? Relative to the 1960s there will be a rise but only because grammars were abolished.
by Ken January 26th, 2009 at 4:22 pm ”
If you can’t back it up I won’t be surprised.
James Forsyth on Coffee house
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3292971/every-pollster-now-has-the-tories-on-course-for-an-overall-majority.thtml
The last para is interesting
301.”The problem with election night parties is the split between those who are completely focussed on the news as it is coming in and those who want to socialise.”
Mike, I think socialising is just about impossible on a big election night. I remember the smaller Scottish elections on here, I spent most of my time flitting between the TV coverage and trying to post any news from well informed Scottish blog sites with an ear to various counts on here. You simple could not keep up with the threads, even skimming was too time consuming once the evening really kicked off and the results came in.
365 Labour’s Act. They have a majority; if they thought the provisions were so awful they could have dropped it or used the Parliament Act. Old News as usual.
357. I have no choice! I am in a handcart to hell at this time in terms of debt!
Assuming the end comes in terms of bankruptcy that is it - to be fair the political system has more of a loss than me, not the other way round. I am not motivated by money, status, being famous or even power. My only motivion has always been helping people to get a better life - unfortunatly i have failed personally: I am insolevant and is it right to keep borrowing when i know that it cannot be repaid?
359. If you’re interested Martin, I believe there’s a vacancy as constituency organiser for the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield Hallam…
372 lol
For Labour to get as much as 32% is unbelievable with this scandal in the Lords
I am spitting blood at Gord’s inability to act on this scandal which WILL bring him down!!
Impeachment Now
The following should be named and Impeached with Corruption and Abuse of High Office
Lord Truscott
Lord Taylor
Lord Moonie
Lord Snape
Failure to bring these Four Lords to account before the Courts for corruption would be tantamount to bringing the Law into disrepute, undermining the Rule of Law in favour of access to Political Influence, and would mean that nobody in this country should be charged with any corruption offences unless its provisions extend to the highest and lowest in the Land
The Corruption Bill 2006 laid before Parliament stated
15 Powers of Serious Fraud Office
In the Criminal Justice Act 1987 (c. 38)—
(a) after “fraud” wherever it appears except in the expression “Serious
Fraud Office” insert “or corruption”;
(b) after section 1(2) insert—
“(2A) In this Act, any reference to “corruption” includes any offence
under Part 1 of the Corruption Act 2006 and the common law
offence of bribery”.
16 Penalties
(1) A person guilty of an offence under this Part is liable—
(a) on conviction on indictment, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding
the term specified in subsection (2) or a fine or both;
(b) on summary conviction, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 6
months or a fine not exceeding the statutory maximum or both.
(2) The maximum term of imprisonment on conviction on indictment is—
(a) 5 years for an offence under section 4;
(b) 2 years for an offence under section 9 or 10; and
(c) 7 years in any other case.
Sadly and what a surprise the Corruption Bill 2006 was not passed by our Lords and Masters in 2007.
Home office minister Baroness Scotland of Asthal responded on behalf of the government and said that “since we all agree that corruption is a threat to the very foundations of democratic society and that constant vigilance is needed to ensure that we maintain our high standards domestically and play our full part in combating corruption overseas, the problem has been how to deliver that change”.
It is quite simple commence Impeachment Proceedings
Erskine May, ‘the Commons, as a great representative inquest of the nation, first find the crime and then, as prosecutors, support their charge before the Lords, exercising at once the functions of a high court of justice and of a jury, try and also adjudicate upon the charge.
365 - I don’t personally have a problem with the law allowing temperate criticism of homomsexuality, neither do I have a problem with those of religious faith telling me that according to their faith homosexual practice is immoral.
365 - David Waddington, the man who led the “defence” of Stefan Kiszsko, and yet continued to vote for the death penalty while Kizsko was in jail.
Vile man.
372- Well, there probably is no better way to bring down the Lib Dems than from the inside… just ask Nick Clegg.
“Britain’s mood of excessive ‘Panik’”
“But surely all this British Angst, Panik and Götterdämmerung is going a bit too far? Interestingly, at a time of sharply widening credit spreads on European sovereign debt, British government 10-year bond yields are still 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points below those on French bonds.
That’s a sign that international investors still have a modicum of long-term confidence in the U.K. The constant bombardment of British bad news is starting to produce some wildly exaggerated effects. I would stick to my prediction that, within 12 months, especially against the Euro, the pound will look a lot less sickly than today.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Britains-mood-excessive-angst/story.aspx?guid=%7B192D0DCD%2D1F24%2D4834%2DB016%2DE9FDB98B174E%7D
371 - get some debt counselling Martin Day, there are ways out of your situation and bankruptcy is not likely to be the best of them. Your creditors will do anything to avoid you going bust too because, if you, no-one gains.
368. The last Liberal MP to defect directly to the Tories was Sir Alfred Mond (Carmarthen) in 1926…
379 Good advice, The best place to go is the Citizens advice bureau.
380 Time for another one to then…
380 - A tad overdue then!
375 Quite agree - toleration by definition means that you tolerate opinions you do not share.
91. “3. How would Lab-LibDem coalition likely play out in GE leadup, campaign, result?”
Labour voters who wanted to slap Labour but couldn’t vote Tory would stay at home rather than vote Lib-Dem.
347. Gabble, I see the sun hasn’t bothered to tell us either who the aide is, when the remark was made nor where.
Although to be fair, it does mention “Who will be the most upset, the Tory leader for being condemned as a lightweight or the Prime Minister for being upstaged by his old enemy Blair?
The betting’s on grumpy, sizzle-free Gordon”
Let’s assume the story is true (it’s in the papers so it must be true), do you think this will provide a boost for Labour’s poll rating and when do you think this increase will occur (and by how much).
Personally, I think Obama can say that Gordon is the lord reincarnated, however even that isn’t going to be enough to resurrect labour’s chances at the next election.
People want a change and the party they will vote for will be the tories and then when they want a change again (after about 12 - 16 years) they will vote labour back in.
378 That’s because investors expect a Conservative Government in UK in medium term but realise they are stuck with Sarko in France for some time yet.
363, 367 I believe that you are correct Ken, the state school intake (i.e., including grammar schools and direct grant schools) to Oxbridge was higher in the past — it was highest during the heyday of the direct grant and grammar schools.
In the future, the state school intake is likely to drop further.
The reason is this. Home students are now defined as students from the EU. Highly motivated students from Germany, France and especially the former Eastern Europe are taking a greater proportion of Oxbridge places. They have exactly the same rights to apply as any UK student.
Unfortunately, following the destruction of our education system by a succession of Gov’ts, most UK students cannot compete with them.
There will will be fewer UK students at Oxbridge in the future. And those who lose out to the increasingly international stage on which Oxbridge recruits students will be the state school pupils from less good schools.
385. I think we (LD’s) have pretty clearly ruled out any pre-election deals.
376. Kiszsko was ineligible to be hanged by virtue of the provisions of the 1957 Homicide Act, even if Waddington had succeeded in getting capital punishment restored…
Stop posting bollox - here you’ll be found out within seconds every time….
386 Its the Whip - source could be a myriad of other blogs with little providence (sorry David Roe but its rare that the Whip publishes anything original)
384. Ted: “Quite agree - toleration by definition means that you tolerate opinions you do not share.”
Would you tolerate someone being allowed to say that it’s wrong to be black and that black people should be forced to bleach their skin?
392 - What an utterly facile example.
379. Depends on how you look at it and i have preparred for it!
In terms of debt counselling - I am more qualified than the muppets who advise me: I don’t care, more fool them! I aim to maximise loss for them - my family sold me and my brother out, the banks sold us out! I will default on my debts and sell the banks out! Too good to work for them - sod them! And everyone else!
393. For once I’m leaning to agreeing with Gabble.
392 - There are celibate gay men (quite a few of them, so far as I can tell, safely within the auspices of just about every religion that has an issue with homosexuality). Your analogy, therefore, does not work.
396. antifrank
I think that is an example that entirely supports my analogy.
396. Technically they would be non-practicing homosexuals and you could still urge them to change their sexuality.
Urging someone to be celibate is different and would not be a crime if I read it rightly.
376 You’d know a lot about vile men tim.
Nice to see ‘Erminegate’ is headlining all the broadcast news programmes this evening. Corrupt Labour Peers eh - who’d have though it. I thought they were whiter than white. Reminds me of ‘Lobbygate’ - remember that?
397 - How? A gay man can choose not to practise homosexuality and be celibate. A black man cannot choose not to be black.
Now, as a gay man, I have no intentions of choosing not to practise homosexuality, indeed I try to practise it as vigorously as I can. However, if someone wants to express their views on what I do, they can do so (and I shall equally robustly express my opinion).
Do you not pause for thought when a succession of gay posters have defended the right of others to express their disapproval of homosexuality?
Evening all, like all the other Tories on here I am pleased/relieved that the ICM poll confirms what the others have said, Tories advancing, Labour sliding and LibDems stagnating.
I would expect the GE result to be something like C43:L31:LD18 and would certainly settle for that. Anything better is just icing on the cake.
I agree with Christina D (I almost always do) and Rod Crosby re election night. Whilst I still think it will be in Scotland Labour -14, LibDems -4, SNP +12, Tories +6, the likely actual seats changing hands are changing quite a bit and I can see all 4 parties gaining seats and 3 (excluding the Tories) losing seats.
My personal high points would be
1) Sunderland Central declaring first and being a Con gain by over 1000 (otherwise there would be a recount)
2) Hazel Blears on a BBC or SKY News panel explaining why only losing Sunderland Central by 1000 is a triumph for Labour
3) the first Tory gain from the LibDems
4) the first Tory gain in Scotland, possibly REnfrewshire East
5) Redditch returning a Tory with a 10,000 majority
6) Alistair Darling losing Edinburgh SW to his clever young Tory opponent by under 1000 votes on 2 recounts
The majority of potential Tory gains from the LibDems will be more likely in the early hours of Friday and the Friday afternoon. The rural Scottish seats and I presume rural Devon and Cornwall seats will not declare until Friday late morning/early afternoon.
I will be pleased for the Tory candidate in Broxtowe to take the seat with a majority approaching 10,000 but will feel sad for 30 secs for Dr Palmer since he has given us all hours of entertainment/enlightenment (depending on one’s particular views)and yes Ed Balls losing would be the Portillo moment.
It is interesting that the first item on the 10 o’clock BBC News was the alleged Labour Peers taking cash for amendments and basically stating it as accepted fact.
400. See 398. Also Michael Jackson.
I should note I’m against the law in general, but if it’s there I’m against the exception if you see what I mean.
397 - No it doesn’t there are no activities that are specifically associated with being born black that religions take issue with. In terms of homosexuality, no one who is born homosexual can avoid being born that way, yet there are parts of various religious texts that make a value judgment on practices that would be involved. Levticus in the Christian bible specifically makes an injunction against a man laying with another man as with a woman. I personally believe that if that is a persons religious belief then they should not be prevented from espousing that in a temperate way.
Tony Wright. What a penis.
392. Yes, of course.
401. I’d be a little sad to see Darling lose his seat as I think he’s one of the few nice guys in this awful government!
I think Gabble´s parallel is a very good one. I think that gay people would argue that being gay is precisely the same as having a black skin: it is not a matter of choice, however much the religious fundamentalists might think that it is.
What I see in the present case, are the first signs that the Cameron Conservative Coalition is beginning to unravel.
So come on, Mr Cameron! Whose side are you on? The religious right, or the gay community? Time to stop being all things to all men!
394. Martin, you sound terribly disspirited. Don’t take any rash decisions. The darkest hour comes before the dawn. Good luck
403 - Theres a lot more in the Bible about eating shellfish James.
Ever sucked on a prawn?
Damnned for a clam?
407 - Are you the poster formerly known as Tressage, and John13 once upon a time?
@371 (Martin Day)
Apologies in advance if this sounds condescending.
Before you do anything rash like declare bankruptcy, try very hard to see if you can figure out a repayment schedule. It will sound impossible but it is not - no matter how bad things get.
My friend has successfully come off a debt mountain of £30000, although it took him 5 years to do it. The two keys are a steady job and a spending plan which you set in stone. The second is far harder than the first.
That’s not to say that finding a job is easy, but don’t be snobbish about what you are prepared to accept - especially at first. Get friends to look over your CV and to give you practice interviews. You have lots of free time - use some of it to make sure your CV looks good. Hopefully, if you do find something, no matter how menial, try to figure out what skills it gives you - and then do everything you can to develop those as much as possible. Stick with it for a while even if it is boring.
To try to figure out a payment schedule, keep a very close track of what you are spending for a few weeks, and see if there is anything you can realistically cut. Extrapolate from there. Give yourself an extra 25% or so as a work bonus and for emergencies.
Lastly, try to avoid the spiral of internet/TV addiction. This was one of the hardest things for my friend to do - he would waste weeks accomplishing nothing at all. Give yourself a maximum of 3 hours a day, and be strict with yourself about this.
I’m sure the Citizen’s Advice Bureau will have far more useful and specific details of what you can and should do - but I know from personal experience it can be done…
Good luck!
392 It depends what you mean by “tolerate”. If sonmeone expressed the opinion in my hearing, I would express my disgust and tell them in no uncertain terms that they were wrong.
But should it be illegal for someone to say it? No.
409 - And? If you have a point I’m failing to see what exactly it is.
403. The only kind of speech that should be limited in any way is that which incites others to commit a crime.
412, or even shout it from the pulpit, that all blacks/gays/disabled/muslims etc etc are going to die a painful death in hell etc etc. As long as no incitement.
To revert to an earlier discussion and moving from generalities to specifics, how does the panel feel about the Watford seat? Given the drama that the Tories have undergone there, is that seat now unwinnable for them: if so, the Lib Dems look like great value on Ladbrokes at 6-4. Or has the Conservative crisis passed and are they still in the game?
PS Ave It’s opinion, while valued, might not be taken as definitive on this conjunction of his two favourite subjects.
407 Why can you left-liberals not understand that there is a difference between (a) allowing people to state views that many people find unpalatable and (b) supporting those views yourself.
I posted last night that I thought that the Libs Dems could be in deep trouble in Wales.This poll backs up my views.
From my own experience down here in West Wales, canvassing, people very rarely say they are Lib Dems and the organization seems non existent.
From what I have gleaned from other areas in Wales,Lib Dems are suffering and I would not be at all surprised if they end up with just 1 seat after the next GE.
I wish the main beneficiaries would be the Labour party, but I guess the Tories will be the ones laughing, with Plaid having perhaps having something to smile about as well.
417. They do understand, but it assists in their argument to ban things they dont like, by painting those who disagree with the principle as advocates for it.
You just know such people in the middle ages would be keen witch finder generals.
392 Gabble, I’m gay, so what if the churches say I’m immoral, I don’t care.
If they/preachers of hate threaten to stone me, imprison me or threaten harm, that bothers me. That’s illegal anyway.
Me telling other people what they can or can’t believe? What right have I to do that?
416. Impossible to say. If there is going to be a Tory gain from third place, this would be it….
421. What’s your overall thoughts at the moment Rod, still going for hung Parliamnet?
420. Ted: “Gabble, I’m gay, so what if the churches say I’m immoral, I don’t care.”
Good for you!
But I do care and so will many others:
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/?comments_popup=10886
Tim was dragging up politics from 40 years or more earlier - made me think if I could recall in 1969/70 that much discussion about the 1951/50/45 elections, I couldn’t remember much, Heath seemed to be more about the good times under Supermac rather than the Tories getting back in to repair the damage Atlee had caused (though there was some).
He did though remind me that 40 years ago this week The Beatles played on the roof of the Apple offices (a guy I worked with in the early 80’s was on the roof as an Apple employee ( still had his pics, contract signed with Paul’s signature, as momentos from his failed dreams of pop glory). 1969 was also the year of the Stonewall riots - and today we have two Conservative frontbenchers in civil partnerships, how things change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea6ZcfJspcI
422. Yes, I’ll only modify my view if the Tories are 10%+ clear in the final polls…
423 - Surely though Gabble the function of a democracy is to make laws that are right not merely ones that are demanded or even popular. I think that persons of religious conviction should be entitled to advance the tenets of their faith in a temperate fashion. What would be the next thing on the list, re-writing religious texts to make them more palatable to those who disagree with them?
423. Well, i dont care if you care. I believe in freedom, what do you believe in?
Socialism is ugly.
425 By final polls - Rod means FINAL POLLS - ie election day.
425. I admire you sticking to your guns and putting your money where your mouth is.
426. democracy has no such function, much as we might like it if it did.
427 The rule of the mob.
427. Gaz: “Well, i dont care if you care. I believe in freedom, what do you believe in?”
I believe in freedom for people not to be subjected to prejudice and victimisation for reasons beyond their control.
428. Very droll
429. I don’t have any option; it’s what the numbers are telling me… Although I don’t underestimate Labour’s ability to pick the worst possible moment for an election…
Gabble, can it be that you are slowly coming to abandon Labour and turning to the Liberal Democrats?
433 re 428. Why Rod, I get the impression that you don’t really mean that.
430 Western Democracy recognises protection of minorities, the rule of law, the freedom of conscience and speech, the gifts of the Enlightenment. Not mob rule.
ID cards, 42 days (in fact any more than 48 hours IMHO) are part of authoritarianism but not as harmful to the human spirit as the crushing of dissent.
just a snippet from tomorrow’s Scotsman, Sir Fred “the shred” Goodwin exRBS is being lined up to take over from Max Mosely in Formula One.
‘Brown loses his marbles’: the headline in the Daily Express.
It’s almost worth buying.
They are not impressed with his view that we are witnessing the birth of a new world order.
I think he is right.
We won’t have been this far down the order for sometime.
434. B. Hart: “Gabble, can it be that you are slowly coming to abandon Labour and turning to the Liberal Democrats?”
For tactical reasons, the LibDems have had my vote for years and probably will at the next GE.
436. To an extent it does. For most of its existance it hasn’t. It currently does but that could be argued as being because people desire it as such. Or at least vote for people who do.
432 Hang on, you’re moving the goalposts. I’m not arguing that people should be “subjected to prejudice and victimisation”. I’m arguing that if someone feels that homosexuality is wrong, they should be able to say it.
But to be honest I see no need for a specific law aimed at homosexuals - if someone is being harassed and put in fear of violence, that is surely already an offence no matter what their sexual orientation.
435. I can’t imagine…
427: Gaz et al - one of the most enjoyable things about the pb.c community is how committed most posters are to freedom of speech, even when it can be messy. In fact I’m quite moved by comments by Ted, antifrank etc that they believe in other people’s rights to say things they’d find personally difficult and offensive. As someone who takes the Bible seriously and believes that society’s view that all lifestyles are equal needs challenging, much respect to you both.
If only our political masters were so committed to freedom of speech!
441. Phil C: “I’m arguing that if someone feels that homosexuality is wrong, they should be able to say it.”
In what way is that not ‘prejudice’?
I can’t believe this Lords thing has been allowed to dominate two news cycles. Just remove the whip while the investigation is taking place making it clear it’ll be restored automatically if they are cleared. Its what would happen if they were Councillors.
In fact having heard excerts from Lord Taylors conversation on PM there is a case for just chucking him out straight away.
Rod, remind me again, how does your predictor work?
444. and when did prejudice become a criminal matter?
444 - It is a belief not a prejudice. People should be entitled to their beliefs, whether you agree with them or not.
447. Gaz: “and when did prejudice become a criminal matter?”
When it’s used to incite hatred.
Evening all
I don’t think there’s much unexpected in this poll. The apparent fall in the LibDem share may well be statistical noise; otherwise it’s very much in line with what we’ve been seeing recently elsewhere. Still bad news for the LibDems, of course; they should be picking up more disaffected ex-Labour voters, but there’s little sign of that.
I doubt whether the return of Ken Clarke has made any significant difference to this poll; it might have an effect at the margin, but most people are not as sensitive to these things as we PBers are.
No, I think the real place to look to see why Labour are collapsing (apart from the obvious one that the Conservatives have returned to election-winning form) is post 261 of this thread, from Labour supporter (or ex-Labour supporter) Patrick:
(a)My realising public spending has become wasteful
(b)PC ness has gone beserk
(c)A perception our finances are on the brink of inducing a nasty run on the pound
(d)General unease ,at societal breakdown
(e)What benefit would it do the Labour Party to win a 4th election?
I could go on
Couldn’t have put it better myself, though I could add a few more.
As for new betting opportunities, Edinburgh South West is certainly an interesting one. Anyone got anything specific to add to what Easterross and others have said?
445. Perhaps there is a case, like in the college of cardinals, for restricting the voting rights of the over-80s in the HoL…
The HoL should not become the best nursing-home in the West End.
Lord Taylor is 83, and wants £120k. Does he really think he’ll have time to spend it, or will be able to take it with him?
443 Jonathan Sacks in his comment piece in the Times says “people search for certainties, . They rally round scapegoats and slogans that simplify. They resolve complex issues into polarities: us and them, the children of light versus the children of darkness, friends and enemies, the saved and the damned. People lose faith in the long, slow process of conflict resolution. They lose the very precondition of justice: the ability to hear both sides. They see themselves as victims and identify someone else to blame.”
There lies the danger, in oppressing others thoughts, in seeing them entirely as enemies.
418. Valleyboy. Which part of West Wales? Suffice to say what info I have conflicts with yours. And which seats do you see falling?
449. ‘Inciting hatred’ sets a very high threshold for prosecution, and goes way beyond expressing an opinion or advocating the damnation of others.
In fact the only people who would really fall foul of laws against incitement in regards to homosexuals are the imams at finsbury park mosque, but they get a special free pass, dont they?
People can have their beliefs. But…
Some beliefs are wrong and should be challenged whenever they are articulated.
Some beliefs should never be allowed to be acted upon.
450 Absolutely on the button as usual Richard.
[apart from the betting bit which I know diddly squat about].
450. I hear that a senior Tory will be campaigning in the constituency later this week. Darling is in real trouble
444 Depends on what you mean by prejudice. Either way I don’t think it counts.
Technically, prejudice of course means pre-judging an argument. In fact it could be a fully-formed mature belief that homosexuality is wrong. In either case of course I don’t think it should be wrong to express it.
Prejudice, in phrases like “racial prejudice” is a lot stronger. It usually means something like
suspicion, intolerance, or irrational hatred of other races, creeds, regions, occupations, etc.
injury or harm resulting as from some judgment or action of another or others
(from http://www.yourdictionary.com/prejudice, ‘cos it came up first on a Google search)
The first of these definitions is by definition purely internal to the person that holds the opinion: it cannot be made illegal (unless you want to ban thoughtcrime)
It’s the fourth one that’s important in this context, and I don’t think that being told by someone that they disagree with your lifestyle, however innate it is, is “injury or harm”. People should be assumed to have a reasonable amount of robustness and to be able to confront opinions they disagree with.
456 Thanks Sally!
457 Scott P - That doesn’t surprise me. The figures make this an interesting constituency and one which the Tories might just manage.
Anyway - time for bed!
Alas, I think I missed Valleyboy again, I’d be quite interested in trying to get some depth on what he things and why, rather than just his normal “Lib Dems will do rubbish in Wales” statements.
348. “Don’t give up on Scotland.
The SNP could take some hits over the next year.
And they are cosying up with some very, very far right Muslim Brotherhood front organisations.”
Oh, give it up, Timothy. If that tired old allegation was going to find legs it would have happened long before now.
OT and for the benefit of Nick P I am obliged to mention Labourlist once again. This comment is priceless
“Watching New Labour with their new found discovery of the internet can only be likened to logging onto Facebook and finding a friend request from your dad…”
458 Freedom of speech has never meant having the freedom to say what you like without taking the consequences. Words can be powerful things, use them wisely and responsibly.
Anybody know what Jacqui and Boris decided re Londons top cop?
Always wondered why “inciting hatred” should be a crime. Hating people isn’t a crime, so why should inciting it be?
Actually I have a problem with all incitement crimes, as I believe that the decision to commit a crime is entirely the responsibility of the person who makes that decision (that’s the libertarian and Stoic in my I suppose).
But I would be much happier to see crimes against inciting violence, or inciting other crime, rather than against inciting hatred.
446. It was predicated on the historical swingback thesis…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/06/30/guest-slot-rod-cosbys-by-election-trend-analysis/
Moreover…
i) there is a chasm between Labour losing its majority and the Tories gaining one
ii) the absolute number of Tory seat gains required is huge, and would be unprecedented (for them) since 1945
iii) The vote lead the Tories require would be towards the upper end of the historical lead for any party
iv) the Tories usually underperform UNS
v) Cameron is a lightweight, whose shine is rubbing off
463- What is wrong is having language police. Here you inevitably have the problem of determining who polices the police, ad infinitum. That’s why there should be no prohibition on speech having political content, regardless of the politics inherent in the speech.
OT more trouble for Labour peer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/4351418/Lords-scandal-Peer-faces-row-over-arms-lobbyist.html
Gordon will love the Tuesday Front pages:
Financial Times.
“More woe as 72,000 jobs axed in one day”
The Guardian
“Faith in Brown collapse as Tories take lead on economy”
The Times
“Job losses mount as downturn steepens”
Daily Express
“Brown’s lost his marbles” (my personal favourite)
Daily Telegraph
Payments row [Labour] peer faces quiz over lobbyist”
The Independent
Eco nonsense unrelated to politics or ‘news’
The Star/Sun/Mirror NSFW
462 - Another gem from LabourList - Will Straw wrote this
“Cameron’s final policy is to ensure that “government lives within its means.” This is certainly a conservative notion and one that would lead to economic catastrophe.”
467 It’s all about peer pressure. Sometimes you have to stand up and say something is not acceptable and change the prevailing culture. It is for the better that racist taunting in football grounds is no longer seen as tolerable.
Whether the law should be used is another matter. Social conservatives historically had no problem in using it to enforce their prefered norms (Section 28 for example). They just don’t like it when social liberals do the same.
466. “the absolute number of Tory seat gains required is huge, and would be unprecedented (for them) since 1945″
Rod, I’m not necessarily entirely disagreeing with you, but hasn’t the electorate become much more volatile in recent years than it was during the class-conscious first four decades after World War II?
469. What in incredibly intrusive photograph on the front page of the sun…. How quickly they forget about how they hounded Diana.
471. Social Liberals = Liberal Bigots?
472 Don’t mention the war (to Rod)
466 - I can see where you are coming from but we are in uncharted territory.
The two main parties have never been in this position before.
Labour has never had to fight for a 4th consecutive GE victory - just as the Tories have never been in opposition to the Labour Party for such an extended period.
Past trends cannot be used as an absolutely reliable guide to future outcomes.
My sense is that we are approaching a change election against the backdrop of a massively unpopular party which has been tainted by a number of scandals.
You can see Gordon’s cat over at my place.http://oldrightie.blogspot.com/
What odds are around for an election this year? Or are Labour waiting for the Tories to hit 60%?
re 447 well since at least the enactment of the Race Relations Act.
471 You forget those of us who are on the libertarian right and opposed Clause 28 as well.
476 - Not to mention the most catastrophic wrecking of the economy in living memory!
Fascinating machinations in the Scottish Budget vote
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/4349263/Scottish-Parliament-heading-for-dead-heat-on-Budget-unless-more-concessions-are-made.html
478 Which bans discrimination and causing racial hatred, but not prejudice.
466. Thanks Rod.
You see, I see two methodology problems with this theory in the current parliament.
1. The number of by elections actually taking place. Now, you say that it doesn’t matter how many by elections take place in the course of a Parliament, but to me, the smaller the sample, the greater the chance of a less accurate average. Simply, the small number of bye’s taking place in Parliament now, says to me that you may not have a big enough sample to be able to make an accurate assesment of the true state of the Parties in this Parliament.
2, The other problem I see is the Tories unique situation in Scotland may effect their overal national share. We know the Tories are virtually dead and spent as a political force in Scotland. We know they lag behind Labour and SNP. We know that this side of hell freezing over they won’t be returning as a political force anytime soon. But we also know its perfectly possible for the Cons to get a majority without winning hardly any Scottish seats.
Now, I’m sure you will have good explanations for these two issues, but somehow I just have my doubts about your predictor.
Oh, and as its Janaury 27th can I be the first person to wish you Happy Holocaust Day!
re 482 what would you call not giving a black person a job because you think he’d be thick and lazy then? If that’s not being prejudicial, then I don’t know what is.
471- Peer pressure is fine, just not laws. Your abhorrence of Section 28 should inform your position on liberals engaging in similar practices. For myself, I don’t endorse any speech codes when they pertain to matters having political relevance, whether they be favored by the right or the left.
481 - Some sort of squalid deal will be hatched.
445 ASE think I have met up with you before.
460 Corporeal.Disappointed that you should call my comments rubbish.I have no axe to grind against the Liberals and am just posting what I find on the doorsteps here in Preseli and what I pick up from here and there.
Here in Preseli there is no Lib Dem representation on the County Council,the first time this has happened for many years.Leadership at a Wales national level has been poor for a long time and Kirsty will have to pull her socks up as I don’t hear much from her.
You have 4 GE seats.Looking at the latest poll figures it doesn’t take a Bob Worcester to work out you are vulnerable in all but Opik’s seat.
All this means bad news for us Labourites as the Tories will be the main beneficiaries.
483 I’d call it racial discrimination, as does the law.
Surely the prejudice is the belief. It’s acting on it that’s wrong.
472/476. Perhaps, but we should remember 1992. At the end of a Tory third term, in the teeth of a recession, the swing to the Opposition was a measly 2.1%..
I expect the ultimate swing to the Tories to be slightly higher than this, but not much…
483 But I’d rather trade insults with Gabble and tim, and I think they’ve gone to bed. Or have been stood down for the night…
347. If Obama thinks Blair is sizzle and substance then Obama is less perceptive than I would have thought.
483.
Employment law is covered by tort not criminal, which is what this would cover.
It wasnt the act of prejudice, it was the discrimination.
re 487 but the discrimination stems from the prejudice. If you thought that way you could not employ anyone black because you would be bound to discriminate in some way. And the moment you express your opinions then you are breaking the law. You would not expect any clergyman who said that all black men were perverts, child molesters who should be sent back where they came from to escape prosecution.
488 - But Brown is more unpopular than Major was in 92 and Cameron is a squillion times better than Kinnock
1992 was not a change election. We had the change when Thatcher was removed - that is what people needed.
486. I didn’t say your comments were rubbish. I said you usually predict the Liberal Democrats would do rubbish, which iirc is what you do predict.
Cardiff Central is vulnerable? To whom? B and R is a 10% lead. Ceredigion is I grant you but the other two?
@485 (James Burdett) There will probably be a deal - though I’m not sure it would be appropriate to call it squalid. It’s not Brown promising favours for the DUP on unrelated NI matters if they would support him on 42 days. This would be reallocating the budget in a way that either the Greens or Labour agree on - surely the purpose of having a voted budget in the first instance?
Anyway, from a political betting perspective, it is fascinating as the odds on a Scottish election soon must have shortened quite a bit.
488 - Maybe, but I think that the difference is that the Kinnock led opposition was not seen as a particularly viable alternative. I think that this was reinforced by the tax bombshell campaign. I think also that another big difference was that Major was genuinely fresh as he had risen through the Conservative Party like a rocket. Brown has been at the top of Labour Politics for 20 years, there won’t be the sense of ‘give the new guy a fair crack of the whip’.
492. Of course he should escape prosecution, in fact he would do as he has committed no offence. The police in connivance with the CPS might be able to trump us some public order offence, with a racially aggravated factor, but not likely.
Racism is not against the law, being a racist is not against the law and expressing racism is not against the law.
“It’s all about peer pressure. Sometimes you have to stand up and say something is not acceptable and change the prevailing culture. It is for the better that racist taunting in football grounds is no longer seen as tolerable.”
I agree with that, and especially now the Premier League is close to 50% brown/black players. Shame that people don’t also stand up to cut out mindless eFFing at football grounds (or the BBC), which used to be unacceptable in the much applied “foul and abusive language” offence.
re 497 but the RRA 1976 as amended makes harassment a crime. Harassment is defined as (section 3A)
(a) violating that other person’s dignity, or
(b) creating an intimidating, hostile, degrading, humiliating or offensive environment for him.
So yes such a clergyman would be committing a crime.
452 You are a very thoughtful man Sir Ted.
470.Beyond parody. Like it’s author.
492
re 487 but the discrimination stems from the prejudice.
True
If you thought that way you could not employ anyone black because you would be bound to discriminate in some way.
Probably… maybe… there are people who disagree with laws but do not break them. I don’t think it is beyond the bounds of possibility that someone could dislike black people - or gays - but understand they are meant to work with them,
And the moment you express your opinions then you are breaking the law.
Here I disagree. If you expressed your opinions in the workplace they may be taken in an Employment Tribunal as prima facie evidence of intent to discriminate, but they words would not be illegal per se. You almost certainly could not be prosecuted for saying them, yet your employer (or you, as the employer) could lose a tribunal case and have to pay your employee compensation.
You would not expect any clergyman who said that all black men were perverts, child molesters who should be sent back where they came from to escape prosecution.
I would. I would expect to see him condemned, vilified even, and probably lose his job: but I don’t see why the law would need to get involved.
481 A Scots election would be fun - difficult to work out if Labour would do better or worse than last time.
Help pass the time until the Euro elections (if its around end March/early April would play havoc with Gordon’s G20 & Budget)
Hi! I hasten to add to Peter The Punter,Rod Crosby,Roger and all others that the worst consequence of me not voting Labour next time would 99.99% certain mean that I voted Lib Deb-and stopped Tobias Ellwood (by 1 vote) from getting his nose too far in the stratosphere!
I’m very tired,and very stressed out,so probably time to say ’sweet dreams’
I think I have worked out the Labour strategy on the delayed budget.
They wait till Obama is here and big up his stimulus package which is enormous.
Try to get other leaders to agree a stimulus is good but downplay them saying, as they do now, that it should be within what can be afforded.
Have a budget a few days later that sprays money around as if there is no tomorrow. Including personal tax cuts in one form or another and claim it all costs less than Obama is spending.
Call an quick election for May claiming to have helped people in the recession and having made a recovery possible with the spending in line with Obamanomics.
Try not to let anyone see the real figures and claim the UK will still have a lower national debt than anywhere else.
You have never had it so good in a recession.
Fourth term Labour government ,,,,,,, or so they think.
469 They’ll have to hide Tuesdays papers from Gordon and distract him with a new plastic animal for ‘farmy farmy’. They’re dreadful.
Pure entertainment from North of the Border -’The Scotsman says Sir Fred Goodwin, former chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland, is being lined up to replace Max Mosley as president of Formula 1’s governing body.’ Appointing the man who broke RBS to the top job - have the FIA taken leave of their senses? You wouldn’t want to be left holding shares in Motorsport related businesses if he’s running the show.
496 Major was before spin. He wanted the argument to be about good governance and genuinely felt he provided more of it than the alternative.
Brown has focused his attention on the presentation rather than reality.
He has also demonstrated the levels of ego we have come to expect - he has aimed for world changing governance than the best that is on offer….and failed.
502. “A Scots election would be fun - difficult to work out if Labour would do better or worse than last time.”
It would have been difficult to work out a month ago, but now the answer is obvious - worse. I know I’m biased, but I’m confident I’m speaking the truth on that one. Which is probably why Labour sources have been briefing that a vote against the budget wouldn’t necessarily be a vote to bring the SNP government down, but an attempt to wring some extra concessions.
504 The public have grown wise to Labours financial sleight of hand.
Oh Witan, that is so depressing. Not because it will work, but because it will bankrupt the country and is just about plausible that they are thinking just that.
499 Yes but you said “You would not expect any clergyman who said that all black men were perverts, child molesters who should be sent back where they came from to escape prosecution”
This sounds like it’s meant in the context of a general pronouncement.
If, as in 499, it’s in the context of deliberately harassing a particular individual or individuals - yes this probably would be a crime, and I hope that it would be actionable if it wasn’t racially based although you’d obviously have to do it under other legislation (claim unfair constructive dismissal, or possibly take out an injunction against the person if there wasn’t an employment relationship).
499. But who is the ‘he’ who is being harassed? Any individual would have to show that he was personally harassed by the clergyman’s words. Under some circumstances that might be fairly straightforward, but under others certainly not.
504. The problem with that is you’ll still be running the campaign in a recession and any bad news like a big high street name going into administration or a big series of job losses would derail the whole campaign, just as a bad set of trade figures did for Wilson!
504/509 I think you could be right… I think the postponement of the budget would indicate that Gordon is still creating an opportunity for an early election.
The Indy’s environmental story is very important. It’s completely nuts that we’ve delayed so long on the Severn barrage. We’re blessed with some of the highest tides on earth that will provide 5% of the nation’s energy completely reliably (unlike wind turbines) and we’ve done sod all about it despite the technology being around for decades. Sure it will be expensive perhaps about £40 billion, but Brown and Darling are happy to see that amount pissed away in interest payments every year. Cardiff bay now has a barrage - it hasn’t become a completely denuded environmental hell hole as a result.
@507 (Red Meteor)
That is precisely why a Scottish election is quite likely. The SNP know they only stand to gain by it. Therefore they may not be so anxious to achieve consensus with Labour on the budget, precisely to trigger off the confidence vote.
I’m not sure what happens to the billions in extra funding if the budget isn’t approved though.
512 - If Brown still thinks he can carve out space for an election in May then he is massively deluded. Not a hope in hell of the climate being anywhere near good enough for an election.
SallyC if I were a wagering man I would put money on it. As it is I just gamble in other ways. And I am putting this in my working hypotheses.
Watcher well if the bumper bundle of taxpayer debts was deployed correctly it would, just by chance, be used to prop up such wobbly enterprises, wouldn’t it.
504 Such a stunt may well backfire. The electorate en masse could easily view Browns largesse with their money as the final nail in the coffin, decide they’ve had enough of his financial and economic irresponsibility and send him on his way to sulk in obscurity.
There may be a simpler explanation for the delaying the budget;
they have run out of money, don’t know what to do and don’t want to have to re-address their hopeless forcasts.
515. It’s not as simple as that, Wibbler, because an election wouldn’t be automatic if the government resigned. There would be 28 days to find a new First Minister before an election would be called, and if Labour put up Iain Gray for the position presumably the SNP would put up Alex Salmond to try to block him.
I’m sure the SNP are absolutely genuine in their attempts to reach sufficient common ground - either with Labour or the Greens - to get the budget through, but of course in a purely practical sense there is only so much money to go round.
520 Wait for a Gilt auction to fail. Then the fun starts.
520 - Or need more time to finesse their excuses for the most monumental peacetime deficit ever envisioned by any government in human history!
O/T - Agree with him or not but Boris does compose some cracking prose!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/4348617/Gary-McKinnon-believes-in-little-green-men—but-it-doesnt-make-him-a-terrorist.html
This paragraph is an absolute gem:-
“It may be that the former footballer and BBC presenter David Icke is right, and that the world is run by giant lizards in disguise. Perhaps Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are themselves supersized saurians who have been sent on a 10-year mission to wreck the UK economy, in preparation for the great lizard takeover. Maybe the whole plot will climax in Davos this week, when all 2,500 leading economic and political lizards will meet in the Swiss alps – having done untold damage to global finances – and hail the arrival of the lizard mother ship as it perches on the mountain top.”
HenryG thanks for your Tsonga tennis tip a few weeks ago. I backed at 25 and have just laid at 11.5.
524. He does, my favourite remains the clip they showed on HIGNFY. Boris’ approach to “No Comment”, namely “la la la, I can’t hear you”
367. Why do I bother. Tim, you are always wrong. It’s because you are a Labour supporter - it means that your brains are mushy.
Here it is -
“Between 1972 and 1993 the independent school proportion of the entry at Oxbridge increased from 38% to 57%”
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0305-4985(199809)24%3A3%3C261%3AGASIAO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U
390
But if Tim stopped posting bollocks we’d never have any posts from him at all.
New York Gov. Paterson’s erratic behavior is costing him dearly and he is now essentially tied in a hypothetical primary with spurned Senate hopeful Andrew Cuomo:
“Governor Paterson tried to show he’s listening today by cancelling one bad idea — the tax-payer-financed junket he’d planned to the glitzy World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But the poor guy can’t catch a break: A new poll has his would-be rival, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, just two points behind him in a potential pimary contest — a big catch-up for Cuomo who was trailing the gov by 23 percent just last month… Only 32 percent of voters, including 40 percent of Democrats, say they’re ready to elect him in 2010. Thirty-six percent would prefer someone else.”
http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/archives/2009/01/poll_cuomo_righ.php
At least tim doesn’t post in capitals [like Gabble] who seems unable grasp how others view this habit.
Can I ask if I am the only one who feels that the Labour Lords involved in Erminegate sound like characters from Harry Potter? Moonie and Snape. It’s very bizarre, perhaps someone will do a Potter based parody at some point? Off to bed.
530. Along with Patrick’s possible change of allegiance, the shock news of the evening is that Gabble is a Liberal Democrat voter!
531 But it will not end well.
Budget 2009. the Chancellor speaks:
We are a prudent government which will do everything in our power to help the country through difficult times. Our measures to date have only committed 300 billion in additonal borrowing and we will increase that to 400 billion which, in comparative GDP terms is far less that Barack Obama is spending in the United States.
All governments in the G8 agree that a stimulus is essential to defeat this recession.
As in the US we also have made guarantees to help the banking system survive and in our latest measure to build on that we are making 100 billion available in loan guarantees to get credit moving again. That will not effect our borrowing.
The essential stimulus package I am now announcing will bring our borrowing requirements to a figure which still leaves the UK with the lowest GDP to debt ratio in the industrialised world.
The additional borrowing will be used to reduce the basic rate of income tax to 20 pence and so finally restoring the benefits to those who suffered previously. We will increase the personal allowances to twice the inflation rate of last year and increase state pensions, disability benefit, child benefit and family tax credits in line with this and continue the VAT reduction which has been so effective for another year.
Together this will help hard pressed families to weather the storm until our other measures result in an improved economic situation and the new jobs we foresee are available.
To this end the other borrowing will be for infrastructure projects which are already planned and can start immediately and which will create jobs and the climate for business to expand which in turn will create more jobs witter witter witter…………….
It is statistical tricks, lies and persiflage of course but will it sell to the fickle electorate?
532. If we’ve managed to swing Gabble, translate that into UNS, Lib Dem majority of 132. Labour MPs calling for hastily repainted taxis.
O/T Quotes from Independent about the Rotheram Steel Redundancies:
‘Rotherham, like its neighbour Sheffield, is staunchly Labour – and many were quick to claim the latest job cuts as yet another unwelcome legacy from those unloved Tory years.’
and
‘ One former steel worker looking towards Downing Street was Roger Stone, leader of Rotherham Borough Council. “Gordon Brown will get us through this,” he insisted. “The loss of any job, from one to 1,000, is devastating to people and their families and to the economy of Rotherham. We will do everything we can to help these people back into work.”
People are still blaming the tories after all this time! What worries me is not so much their opinion but these peoples willingness to follow anything labour (or not tory) just because its labour. These are the type of people who would sleep walk into a totalitarian regime. God help us.
534 - Almost spot on - you just need to say Obama at least once in every paragraph and it could have been written by Mandy
537. I don’t think Gordon’ll say that last line. He stutters enough without trying to say ‘persiflage’. Reckon they’ll edit that bit out.
I suppose if Darling does resign, Gordon could do both jobs
Wouldn’t be the first time that the PM was also Chancellor…
corporeal no, no, that was me, The Feckless One would never admit to lies and bent statistics, would he.
But if I am right it would explain why the Tory posters are so common. The high command there can see it too.
What is there next step? How do the Tories scotch this budget, make it still born?
Spelling and grammer orf tonight.
Evening all.
Another deeply depressing day of news. Working for a paper isn’t half as much fun as it usually is with all this depressing stuff. Even the features pages are full of recession stuff
David R think of what it does for us when we read it.
Then on top of the misery we get unsubstantiated guff in your ‘Whiplash’ column about Obama’s supposed views on top UK politicians. Regurgitated MandyCandy.
Not your fault, I know.
Well, you newspaper ought to concentrate on the good news, David - the incredible number of Peebies who, despite their historic political leanings, are declaring that they will probably vote Lib Dem next time!
I suppose you have just come off the shift but I am off to bed, I am afraid.
Is no-one else about?
543 - What bit from The Whip do you not like? The bit about the Scooby Doo museum?
Sorry to hear of the problems, Martin - lots of good advice on this thread in general terms, though of course we don’t know your detailed situaiton. Getting personal advice from Citizens’ Advice (tell them everything) is a good thing to do before taking any other steps.
545 - I was just about to wander off, having been regaled with how if next years forecast deficit was minted in 1p coins and laid upon the surface area of the United Kingdom then there would be one every 20 centimetres in every direction. I fear I have some very geeky friends!
514. I agree that we need more environmentally friendly power sources but we must use the precautionary principle on these projects such as on the River Severn/ Afon Hafren (old skool
),
I study ecology but I hate these part time environmentalists who run around headless implementing all these so called measures without thinking of the consequences to the other complex parts of the environment (e.g. marine life).
You only have to look at the case of the extinction of the Large Blue (butterfly) from the UK to understand that we do not know as much as we think and why we must be cautious with developing large ‘eco’ projects.
Speaking, as I do, as Consul of the Roman Republic, I feel entitled to comment ’twas ever thus’.