h1

Could YouGov tempt Salmond into taking the gamble?

February 1st, 2009

What would a Scottish election now do for Gordon?

With Scottish politics in turmoil following the rejection by Holyrood of the SNP budget last week there’s a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of voting intentions north of the border which should give heart to Alex Salmond’s party.

The poll suggests the following shares comparisons on a similar poll is September October when Labour was doing badly nationally:-

  • Constituency: SNP 38% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): CON 13% (-1): LD 12% (nc)
  • Regional: SNP 34% (+2): LAB 28% (-1): CON 15% (-1): LD 11% (nc): GRN 6% (nc): SSP 4% (nc)
  • In terms of seats in the Holyrood Parliament the papers reports: “the SNP would increase its lead, retaining all of its 47 seats at the expense of Labour on 44 (-2) and the Lib Dems on 13 (-3). The biggest winners would be the Greens on five (+3), the Scottish Socialists on two (+2) and the Conservatives on 18 (+1).”

    The question for Labour and the Lib Dems is what they do about the situation? Do they vote against the budget a second time which could trigger off a Scottish general election or do they try to reach an agreement? Both parties, it’s suggested, stand to lose if this went to the country now.

    This could have UK ramifications. The last thing that Brown would want, surely, is for Labour to have a further set-back in Scotland just as things are getting more difficult across Britain.

    The polling, however, is not that clear-cut and a Scottish would be a big gamble for the SNP.

    There have been betting markets on the budget vote but nothing is open as I write.






    Comments are closed.