What’ll conspiracy theorists make of the Glenrothes fiasco?
February 3rd, 2009
Why have the key by-election records “gone missing”?
The Glenrothes by election last November was critical to the personal standing of the prime minister. The constituency is adjacent to Gordon’s, both he and his wife campaigned there, and the Labour candidate and now MP was the head of the school where Gordon went.
The fact that the Prime Minister became so associated with the Labour campaign was highly unusual and was seen as a big political risk. The only opinion poll suggested that the party was neck and neck with the SNP.
The result was a sensation. A majority for Labour far in excess of what anybody was predicting and, as was pointed out at the time, there was the massive increase in postal votes compared with what happened in May 2005.
This was a high profile political event that added considerably to the momentum that Brown was then building up following his initial handling of the bank bailout. So what’s happened to the marked register - the list of those who actually voted which is open to inspection? For anything to do with this election to have “gone missing” simply provides ammunition for conspiracy theorists.
This is particularly the case because the result itself was so unexpected. The SNP calls for an inquiry could become another difficult issue for Labour.
I’ve been associated with many elections over several decades and I have never known a marked register to have been lost like this.
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188 - SeanT.
“Who are the low achievers against which you compare the Ugandan Asians?”
How many more times.
Other British Passport Holders are low achievers compared to British Passport Holders of Ugandan Asian origin.
Ugandan Asians perform better econonomically and educationally than an average of other British Pasport holders.
I’m not arguing that any British Passport holders should be denied residence in Britain.
You seem to be arguing in some bizarre sub Pol Pot idiocy that Ugandan Asians, or some of them should be treated worse than other British Passport holders.
Am I supposed to say first, or dollybot or something?
Nice balanced panel on DP today, 2 x Labour + a UKIP. So far they have managed to witter on about the strikes for 5 minutes without once mentioning Brown’s now infamous BJ4BW.
[fpt - though I see you have repeated your fatuity here]
1. At last. An answer.
So it’s just us Brits who are stupid and lazy, compared to those clever and diligent Ugandan Asians.
I always knew the left was racist - against white Britons. You have proved my point, better than I could have hoped. You are a nasty racist and a vile bigot. You just think your attitude is acceptable because its white people you despise.
This does look very odd indeed, and a tricky one for the government to handle, especially since the original result looked rather odd. If they play it down, they’ll look shifty and encourage the conspiracy theorists. If they go for a full inquiry (which is clearly the right thing to do), they risk fuelling the doubts in a different way.
Another little contribution to the “Labour=sleaze” feeling.
4. New level of idiocy reached there.
Ugandan Asians outperform British Passport holders of all colours and Origins.
Jamaicans,Cornishmen,Guyanans Scots,Indians,Pakistanis etc etc.
I find it fascinating the dearth of posts, so far. Are they all postal posts? Corrupt and utter socialist nastiness and dogma will always resort to this kind of bullying tactic when flaws in the philosophy are shown up by reality. This Government is a disgrace to the real problems old Labour was created to solve. Real, decent and honest workers would be dismayed at the betrayal and demonstrate their feelings on the streets.
Oh, what, pardon? Well I never, good for them!
Sean T-You are a jumped-up halfwit whose mummy loved him (well done there).
One day you will ascend to the world of men where your every word is deconstructed.
Therein redemption lies.
From previous thread:
I heard a programme on BBC 4 (radio) over the weekend where Steve Richards presided. One could not help noticing the cold and haughty sounding voice, as his left leaning and Labour sympathies were revealed when he questioned several reporters about events of the previous week.
No, one cannot take anything for granted, especially a GE that will be held in ever threatening and gloomy times, but Richards reasons for disparaging the polls point only to his own preference for Labour.
by weathercock February 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
202 Coming in, in the middle of an argument is usually fatal. But I cant help it.
Sorry tim your argument is ridiculous. However the policy (initiated by a Conservative government) of giving all British Empire citizens British passports, regardless of worth was and is even more ridiculous and fatuous.
by weathercock February 3rd, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Postal Voting does seem to have been a disaster as it hasn’t noticeably increased turnout but has opened up the system to corruption perhaps more than anything since the advent of the secret ballot. Voting is about going in person to make your mark. Postal votes should banned except for genuine absentees.
On the specific issue, if this gets traction it could be quite damaging for Labour and Brown. If it gets traction in Scotland, it could cause Labour all sorts of problems and give Slamond the courage to go to the polls if his budget falls again. If it sticks in Westminster it will add still further to the general sense that Labour will do anything and everything to cling to power.
To add to the conspiracy theories we might ask if there was corruption did Brown know? After all he would not have campaigned there had it looked like he was going to lose and I seem to remember reports after the election saying that only a very few Labour officials knew they were going to win…
5 It is odd, Richard. I hope there’s an inquiry and I wouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is definitely an ‘end of an era’ feel to the Government now. All these little niggles contribute.
The question is, would you put it past Labour? In postal vote fraud the party has previous… and I wouldn’t trust Brown further than I could throw him.
The greater the stink raised the better. If even the supine Electoral Commission aren’t happy with the postal voting system, then there’s something seriously wrong with it. Maybe a public row would result in changes.
Do I believe that Labour would rig an election if they thought they could get away with it? Yes.
6. “Ugandan Asians outperform British Passport holders of all colours and Origins.
Jamaicans,Cornishmen,Guyanans Scots,Indians,Pakistanis etc etc.”
Outperform by what measure, how, where? Stats?
4 - sean, I know arguing against tim is practically involuntary for most of us, but he surely has a point here, insofar as averages go? Do you actually think that all races, on average, have the same achievement levels - if so you are arguing against facts.
Whether these differences are genetic, developmental or simply economic in origin is of course far more arguable.
6. So the Ugandan Asians are superior to Pakistanis as well as Brits. OK. I see.
So if we have a choice between letting in smart hardworking Ugandan Asians compared to comparatively lazy stupid Jamaicans, as you put it, we should go for the former? Is that what you’re saying?
Or should we let them all in? But why? Given that we can’t have complete uncontrolled immigration and given that, in your eyes, one group is demonstrably superior to the other, surely we should let in the “better” immigrants?
Come on Tim. Tell us. What do you believe? You clearly think one race is better than another. I’m also curious as to your precise hierarchy. Where do the Spanish fit in? The Japanese? Are they good or bad? Aborigines? How would you rate them? High achievers, or a bit shiftless?
Mm?
The disappearence of this register certainly seems very convenient.
As a thought experiment, what would happen if clear evidence of fraud came to light? Wouldn’t Brown have to resign immediately?
Could Labour have lost this on purpose?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/feb/03/snp-glenrothes-byelection
Given how it was reported as being close I was really shocked at the time that McDoom went up there personally.
17- Sean T is arguing from entirely false premises as is his wont.
Typical of a halfwit poster he puts words into the mouth of his opponent that his opponent never uttered.
aaron knows the score.
The problem is that “an enquiry” presumably has to be set up by the executive, ie labour. Isn’t there any sort of judicial or quasi-judicial process that can be brought to bear, such as an election court, and about which the government has no say?
weathercock, you are a very old man(even older than me).
To give you credit I still haven’t figured you out.
If I didn’t know better I would have to say that you were a very ancient,ignorant, preening peacock,cock.
I see Team Gordo is trying to step up the old PR. You can now get “behind the scenes” photos of Gordo’s globe trotting,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/downingstreet/
Labour seems to have the worst reputation for the postal vote scam.
I know all parties have (to varying degrees) employed it - but Labour seems to be the worst offender.
Did they rig this election? Who can tell. The size of victory makes it look unlikely.
However did they indulge in any dodgy behaviour? I wouldn’t bet against it.
16. “sean, I know arguing against tim is practically involuntary for most of us, but he surely has a point here, insofar as averages go? Do you actually think that all races, on average, have the same achievement levels - if so you are arguing against facts.”
So is he saying that the facts are that Ugandan Asians outperform every other Briton in every way? Again, what evidence is there for this, other than the fact that they shovel snow from their paths?
I agree - this is VERY fishy. Activists of all parties set great store by the marked register, so its whereabouts and availability for entering onto each party’s electoral database [EARS in my case] is a topic of continuing interest and importance.
Initially it would not be a single document but a set of documents, one from each polling station. They can’t all have ‘gone missing’!
I’ll ‘declare my interest’ and say that I’m an SNP activist before we start.
I couldn’t believe we lost Glenrothes. No one could believe we lost Glenrothes. From the First Minister down to people like me, we thought we had it. My immediate reaction was ‘this doesn’t make sense’, but you can’t say that in the aftermath of a result, lest you sound like the worst kind of ‘bitter nat’.
On the Labour side, they started off in complete disarray, and they genuinely believed that they could write Glenrothes off as a no hoper. If I remember rightly their campaign manager resigned.
Then, all of a sudden, they seemed to find a new air of confidence. Even the PM turned up.
Now think about Gordon’s character. We all know that there is no way Gordon would have campaigned unless he knew there was a guaranteed Labour victory.
And how can one ‘guarantee’ a victory in any election?
It’s not for me to say . . .
17 - I’m takling about different goups of British Passport holders and frankly, have no idea what you are talking about.
I’m saying that as British passport holders Ugandan Asians had a right to residence and of course should have all been allowed to live here.
As a point of fact… what would the marked register tell you, that the ballots themselves don’t?
16 And of course, Aaron, what those diferences, if any, actually mean are the source of endless debate and fun. Sensible people however do not allow themselves to get into punch ups over them.
29 tim- just lie down and accept that you are arguing against a lackwit in possesion of the zeitgeist.
Two things to bear in mind.
1.You are right.
2.He is wrong.
25. maybe they have just been smeared the worst. i am sure there have been localised abuses, but i am sure none of our westminster parties aim to rig elections.
29 Tim, and which political party took away the right of all British passport holders to settle in the UK?
Clue; the relevant act was passed in 1968.
28 Steady on, Chap. There’s grounds for an inquiry, no more. Until then, keep your hat on. No, I wouldn’t put it past them, but neither would I assume guilt until the evidence is in the public domain.
25. “Did they rig this election? Who can tell. The size of victory makes it look unlikely.”
I’m not sure the size of victory works that way in this case. If they were trying to compensate for a Glasgow East scale of SNP swing while unknown to them the Labour vote was already on a temporary upswing from recession fear then the combined effect would be an over compensation.
26 - People Born in Britain,% in low paid jobs = 21.08% % in High paid jobs 6.98%
Settled immigrants in Britain, born in Uganda %in low paid jobs = 7.6% % in High paid jobs 16.6%
35 But if concete proof were to emerge that would be it for Labour straight away.
28 - “It’s not for me to say . . .”
Oh go on, it will do you good. Sadly, indirectly accusing the PM of being complicit in electoral fraud to win a by-election is not the most outlandish post we’ve had here in the past few days. And at least it was on-topic.
Re the increase in postal votes. Hardly surprising I would have thought, this seat seems to have been largely uncontested last time and was worked hard in the by-election. How did the increase compare to other recent by-elections (or to the level of postal votes in the Scottish Parliament election)?
“I’m saying that as British passport holders Ugandan Asians had a right to residence and of course should have all been allowed to live here.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm”
No, you’re not, you’re saying this:
“Ugandan Asians outperform British Passport holders of all colours and Origins. Jamaicans,Cornishmen,Guyanans Scots,Indians,Pakistanis etc etc.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm”
Only now you are totally embarrassed, because you realise what you have actually “admitted”: that one race - community - migrant group - whatever - is demonstrably superior to another - or in your parlance, they are “high achievers” who “outperform” other ethnic groups.
Of course, saying this is tantamount to Nazism for any good lefty, so you are desperately trying to pretend you didn’t say it; and you are likewise refusing to answer questions as to what you really meant, because you realise you look a berk, and a bigot to boot. In other words: you fell in a big hole that you dug for yourself.
Tut tut. I’d help you out, because I almost feel sorry for you, but I have to go drinking.
Well this all appears very dodgy. Perhaps Nick can shed some light on what was going on.
McDoom wouldn’t need to be complicit. It would just require him being told that the local party was very confident of winning.
36. Well Labour’s vote did seem to be on a temporary uptrend around the time of Glenrothes, but their margin of victory was nevertheless suprisingly large.
Could it be that Labour were going to win anyway, but that some kind of ‘let’s make sure’ sleight of hand exaggerated the real margin? If so, and this comes to light, that would be hilarious.
38
Blame would be devolved to the lowest credible level of responsibility.
39 Neil.Re ‘off topic’. Of course you have a point.Ideally all posts should be on topic.
However the previous thread was needlessly and selectively aborted.
I’m assuming it’s a rhetorical question Mike as conspiracy theorists will make a conspiracy out of it.
As is always the case this is a cock up rather than a conspiracy and just for the record:
Elvis is actually dead
So is Princess Diana
Saudi Arabians actually flew hijacked planes into the world trade centre
Neil Amstrong actually walked on the moon
And there was no-on on the grassy knoll…
surely it can be reconstructed from the voting papers?
Well conspiracy theorists will always go bananas about any issue. The register has just been lost and that would normally be the end of story apart from the fact that the government does not seem to be alarmed by the huge increase in postal voting and the long record of postal voting fraud which they have allowed to develop in this country. The Rowntree report into our electoral system is a very worrying read.
The government as usual will just bury its head and say that turnout is up, nothing is wrong. A new RPA must absolutely be in the very first Queen’s speech of the new government. We cannot wait any longer.
41
!??
35 I agree. A rigged by-election would probably doom a party for a generation.
I suspect that too many people would have to be involved in large-scale rigging for it to be plausible. Someone would have talked to the newspapers by now for a fat fee.
re 30 The marked electoral register is the key control against impersonation and other forms of electoral fraud.
It would show the postal voters and is a check on ensuring that the actual vote numbers match with the totals of people recorded as voting on the register.
The starting point for all electoral fraud investigations is almost always the marked register.
35 PtP - Interesting (and worrying) though that you say ‘you wouldn’t put it past them’. In the past, most people would have thought it inconceivable that a major political party would try to rig an election in the UK. OK, maybe a few hot-heads getting over-zealous with postal votes, but nothing beyond that.
Now, it doesn’t seem inconceivable, although I would still be absolutely flabbergasted if there were fraud of any significant scale.
Mike - it’s good that you’ve lead with this story. It may be something or nothing, but it cannot simply be brushed under the carpet.
It will be interesting to see whether the serious media, incl the Beeb pick up on it.
re 47. No it can’t
Conspiracy theory or no conspiracy theory, you are right to smell a rotten fish. But crying foul is one thing, trying to prove it quite another.
About 7,000 requests were made for postal votes very shortly before the election. The question is how many of these were genuine and how many were filled in by Party activists?
Brown had staked everything on Glenrothes and the result never stacked up. At the time I reckoned Brown only just pulled off this one but was at a loss to explain why.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/brown-just-pulls-off-glenrothes.html
I should say that I hope and believe that what happened was just a cock-up. The alternative is too awful to contemplate.
40 - Stop being silly, Sean.
Of course different migrant groups achieve different levels of economic performance.
People migrating direct from India to Britain perorm less well than people whos origins ethnic origins are in India,but came to this country after living in Uganda.
56. Vote rigging on a much bigger scale took place in the US in 1960.
55
Is that 7000 in total or 7000 from the CLP?
Presumably if the marked electoral register cannot be found, then the by-election should be re-run as a matter of urgency and the successful Labour candidate should step down forthwith.
56 agree - cock up is most likely, I find it hard to contemplate that there was a planned fraud.
Problem is that after the recent cases, across parties, the niggle that there could be is there.
60 - Because?
47, 54. IIRC, ballot papers are numbered, and the stub in the ballot book is marked with the voter’s registration number, thereby, in theory, allowing the sanctity of the secret ballot to be undermined?
31 - Indeed. The only reason I posted is I felt it would be unworthy of me to suppress support for tim on about the only occasion I have ever felt any
If it has been spirited away, it would be the first tiem Liebore had managed to do anything right - if you see what mean
63 thats what i thought.
What adds extra zest is that the SNP asked for the documents in November soon after the election. All is silence for over 2 months, then “Sorry, we’ve lost them.” Yeah, sure.
Remind me, weren’t there some very peculiar council election results from Monklands when John Smith was Lab Supremo?
Well my ghast has never been so flabbered. We now have someone posting outright racist nonsense on PB.com.
I am amazed, seriously amazed, that in this day and age, on a public forum no less, anyone, let alone someone who purportedly is from the left of the political spectrum, would post that one racial group is superior; and superior to all other racial groups.
Supposing someone were to post that people of aryian origin had outperformed every other ethnic group, what would the reaction be? Would URW be posting that those who disagree are lackwits?
Tim, you have been posting racist rubbish. You must either withdraw it or be labeled as a racist and be regarded as no better than the BNP.
Mike, how will it affect you if you allow racist comments to be published on your site?
The polls clearly swung to Labour and away from the SNP after Glasgow East. And polling in Glenrothes was the day of a massive cut in interest rates, so there may have been a momentary euphoria effect at play, that no opinion polls caught. A collective hysteria that the good times had returned - until reality set in the next day.
That said, it wouldn’t explain the massive number of postal votes. But didn’t the SNP make a big play for these too? Can anyone shed light on this aspect?
It was a bit weird - one of those results that makes you sit up and go “Really? Didn’t see that coming….”. Most folks were talking of a close result with one party or the other getting a maximum three figure majority.
Could it have been fixed? Unlikely. But you are talking of a moment in time where we faced a financial meltdown, markets showing instability the likes of which we have never seen, massive financial institutions collapsing on a daily basis. If Brown had faced another drubbing, how would the markets have responded to the rejection of the World Saviour? In those circumstances, some at the top of the tree may have concluded Labour - and Britain - just couldn’t afford Gordon being further destabilised. And you are talking Scottish Labour here…nothing would truly surprise.
Do you like my tinfoil hat? Does it suit me?
http://scot-land.blogspot.com/2008/11/vote-fraud-in-glenrothes-was-election.html
I hope to god this is just a c0ck up.
71. Why? It would mean the end of Gordon and everyone else in the Labour party.
52 Follow the money. There’s your reason for postal fraud and general vote rigging. Think how many individuals or bodies have a vested interest in the current government remaining in power? It’s financial - democracy is a smokescreen.
40 - Stop being silly, Sean.
Of course different migrant groups achieve different levels of economic performance.
People migrating direct from India to Britain perorm less well than people whos origins ethnic origins are in India,but came to this country after living in Uganda.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
————————————-
What’s this stuff to do with elctoral fraud?
Glenrothes completely derailed the Glasgow east / London / Crewe momentum.
46 “And there was no-on on the grassy knoll…”
I was with you up until that point!
40 - Stop being silly, Sean.
Of course different migrant groups achieve different levels of economic performance.
People migrating direct from India to Britain perorm less well than people whos origins ethnic origins are in India,but came to this country after living in Uganda.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
————————————-
What’s this stuff to do with electoral fraud?
68 - Its clearly not racially based is it.
Theres nothing racially specific about Ugandan Asians.
It seems to me that the fact that the marked register has gone missing should raise a rebuttable presumption that the by-election should be rerun without the necessity of a petitioner providing any other evidence of irregularity.
There is now a seperate postal vote marked register that is an electonic list kept seperate from the paper printed copy. This is avaibale and can be supplied and automatically loaded into party electronic data base software. has that list also vanished? It would be stored seperately.
If that has gone as well then someone has really wanted to hide something.
68. When I get back from the pub, I hope to see Tim’s entire Hierarchy of the Races, with the outperforming high-achievers at the top - Ugandan Asians, of course, and maybe larger skulled Nordics, with the inscrutable Chinaman and the wily Nippon lurking in the middle, right down to the pygmy and the Cornish - then maybe the higher primates.
Who’d a thunk it? Our very own Tim a close emotional cousin of Goebbels.
lol.
68 I think SeanT’s point was originally a valid one, but seemed to become less clear the more he posted.
Given that you do not allow anyone to settle in the UK, whom do you turn away? You have to turn away someone, so on what moral grounds do you do it?
tim argued that you should admit the most successful (in economic terms).
The curious point — that I guess SeanT was groping at — is that tim’s argument is an extremely right-wing one. The people that you admit are the most economically successful.
tim is the new Tory Boy.
(The stuff about Ugandan Asians being British passport holders is not relevant, as the Labour Govt removed the right of all British passport holders to settle in the UK in 1968).
41: it seemed a very straightforward by-election to me, woody. As you know, I expected we’d lose, but I talked later to people involved throughout, and they said they’d been suppressing optimism for the last week up to the vote.
The conventional wisdom had been that we were going to win the outlying towns and lose big in Glenrothes, so they mainly canvassed the ’strong’ areas first (as usual the starting point was zero contacts) - when I went up we had a single foray into Glenrothes but all the rest was on the coast. They were, indeed, strong.
Then they took a deep breath and plunged into the supposed hellhole of SNP support, only to find that it wasn’t very different - people were cheesed off with the SNP council, quite liked Gordon, and tribally reluctant to drop Labour in it. At that point they started to feel optimistic, but they didn’t let on even to supporters, so as to maximise SNP complacency. In the event, when the ballot boxes were opened and the usual visual scans done, Labour was thought to be ahead in every ward but one (and that’s before any postal votes were counted).
So yes, just a conspiracy theory IMO. The absence of the marked register is more of a nuisance for Labour than anyone, since having won the thing we’d like to know who voted.
Mike, how will it affect you if you allow racist comments to be published on your site?
Why worry? He already allows Shoah-denialist propaganda to be posted here…
Do we know the number of postal votes that were cast or has this information been lost along with the marked electoral register?
72 - It won’t be proved anyway. I believe in democracy I don’t like the idea of ballot stuffing.
Personally, I would end this utterly shambolic postal vote experiment.
83 - we know the percentage - something like 80%, which isn’t unusual. C&N was 79%. What is unusual for there to be a 4-fold increase in the number applied for.
The story will get buried in the passing of the Scottish budget later today. How convenient….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7866805.stm
85 - “What is unusual for there to be a 4-fold increase in the number applied for.”
Really? Why would such an increase from a practically uncontested GE to a highly competitive by-election be unusual? What was the increase in Glasgow East?
On the topic of ‘follow the money’, this story also seems interesting….
‘The management of the Icelandic Kaupthing bank were “not fit and proper” to control a UK bank, MPs have been told’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7866729.stm
85. The Raven. Can you clarify? 80% of all votes cast were postal votes? Surely not.
81 - Actually, I argued that all British Passport holders should have the right of admittance.And that, of those, Ugandan Asians have turned out to be the most successful.
If I was arguing that immigration should be decided on a projection of economic success (which I’m not) then I might argue that Sri Lankans,New Zealanders and Iranians are the most successful groups.We did this last wek.
I’ve no idea what Sean is arguing to be frank.
He seemed to start off arguing that British Passport holders from Uganda should be singled out for exclusion.
But then it got more random.
89 I think he meant 80% of those applied for were actually cast?
89 - sorry, I meant that 80% of the postal votes applied for were cast. Not that they made up 80% of the total votes. Likewise, 79% of those applied for in C&N were cast.
78: Tim @ 13:00
Sorry, old son, suggesting that one ethnic group is superior to another is straightforward racism. Do contact the that awfully nice Trevor Philips and his gang at the Equality and Human Rights Commission for details.
You have made racist statements. Withdraw them or be branded.
23. To URW.
So sorry that my profile eludes you. Suffice to say, I tell it as I see it. If this worries you, tough titty.
I have been away from the old keyboard or would have replied sooner. Pip, pip
Deeply troubling all this. I think we must remember that at the time Brown’s leadership was teetering on the abyss and the Labour party in Scotland was in disarray. A loss in Glenrothes would have been an unmitigated disaster: Brown would have been finished and the party would have been plunged into a divisive and poisonous leadership crisis - the ensuing schism might have seen Labour reduced to an unelectable rump for ever. Moreover, the momentum and confidence that a victory would have handed the SNP could well have led to the annihilation of Labour as a political force in its own Scottish heartlands. So grave was this situation for Labour that a win-by-any-means strategy must have been in place. Who knows what vile and unscrupulous plans they considered and even implemented!
90 “I argued that all British Passport holders should have the right of admittance.”
Then the proper target of your posts is not SeanT but the Britsih Labour Party which removed the right in 1968.
93 - Afro-Caribbean black men can, on average, run faster than European white men.
96 - I’m giving you my opinion.
The Immigration regulations under the 1968 Act were actually suspended,correctly by the Heath Government.
95. As noted earlier they have form in this area in Scotland, as well.
63: “IIRC, ballot papers are numbered, and the stub in the ballot book is marked with the voter’s registration number, thereby, in theory, allowing the sanctity of the secret ballot to be undermined?”
The secret ballot was not introduced to protect us from the evil state but to allow voters to vote against the interests/instructions of their employers/landlords* and to make bribery and “treating” less likely to work.
The records are kept - generally safely! - but accessible only by the electoral courts in cases of disputes. The secrecy of he ballot does depend on faith in the integrity of the court system and parliament, where I seem to remember all such records are eventually deposited. All of which underlines the worrying constitutional implications of all the PC Plods wandering round the Palace of Westminster and poking round members’ offices recently.
*And add fellow Trades Unionists too!
We’re assuming here that any nefarious practice has been performed by Labour. Loss of these documents could just as easily (and indeed more likely) have been perpetrated by someone hoping to get just such a discussion going.
93 - Its not a racial argument.
Ugandan Asians are of Indian origin, yet perform better economically than peole who migrated directly from India.
Well if the SNP has a case then they should certainly take the big stick to the Council who was responsible for this maladministration, which is er…. run by the SNP isn’t it?
101 Wow, that is a conspiracy theory and a half!
86. This story (the missing doc’s) will be pursued by the SNP regardless of the budget outcome. The outcome of this story is to big for them to let go.
103. Is the instant rebuttal unit grinding into action?
91/92. Marquee Mark and The Raven. Thanks for clarifying. So if there was a four fold increase in the number of postal votes that were applied for and if 80% of these votes were actually cast then that equates to a substantial increase in postal votes.
The figure that would interest me is what was the total percentage of votes cast that were postal votes. From what you say this figure will have been four times higher than usual.
97. Data?
I suspect that it’s not true, either. What you mean to note is that at the extremes of ‘The Bell Curve for Sprinting’ Afro-Caribbean black men run faster than European white men. The objective measure would be the Olympics etc.
If, on the other hand you were to assert that on average European white men are more intelligent than Afro-Caribbean black men you’d not only be shouted down for racism but, probably, also we wrong. Yet, it would be perfectly possible for that incorrect statement to co-exist with the likely correct statement that there are more geniuses among European white men than Afro-Caribbean black men.
For a reminder of just how sordid Labour politics north of the border can be…
http://www.alba.org.uk/paisleysouth/smears6.html
105 my understanding is the Register is held by the Sheriif’s Court & associated civil service, which are resonsible to the Scots Executive so it’s not responsibility of the SNP run Council but the SNP run government.
test
The less likely you are to vote, the more likely you are to vote for left-wing parties if you do vote. I believe this is what’s behind Labour’s expansion of postal voting.
If someone isn’t interested enough to walk to the polling station once every 4 years, why should we care about their opinion?
Politics and voting should be things conducted out in the open, with vigour and transparency and pride… not reduced to the level of filling in a questionnaire.
108 - Yes, of course. It’s a post you dont agree with so it must be from a paid-for hack. How does one get a job posting to pb.com anyway? I’m sick of doing it for free!
114 There are any number of diasble people who physically cannot get there, the elderly infirm,in hospital, people away on business or on holiday, should they be denied a vote?
114. ‘Politics and voting should be things conducted out in the open, with vigour and transparency and pride… not reduced to the level of filling in a questionnaire’
Lord John Russell (Whig) argued against the Ballot Act of 1872 in precisely the same terms.
We seem to have descended into an ‘I’m purer of thought than thou’ argument here on the back of tim’s post number 1. The very thought that there might be any inherent differences, and by implication, relative aptitudes of the races is now apparently so obnoxious that anyone even daring to think it out loud gets nuked. What a load of shit.
I think tim is tiresome lefty nuyjob of the first order but what he said was: ‘Ugandan Asians perform better econonomically and educationally than an average of other British Pasport holders’. I presume that is a verifiable fact because tim seems autistically keen on facts. That it may be a fact does not meak tim is saying all Ugandan Asians are inherently superior.
If I said black heavyweight boxers or sprinters perform on average better than other races I would be making a statement of fact. To extend that into saying all blacks are superior would just make a logician (and everyone else) laugh.
Maybe we’re not all the exactly the same. So bloody what? It would be a sad thing if we were.
On immigration it is, of course, needed that we find some rules based approach to limit numbers. The choice of aptitude measure taken to do this should probably be economic in nature as that is what seems to drive the pasion of the oppposition to unrestricted immigration.
Sean - tim said what tim said and I think you’ve read too much into it. I also suspect, however, that you are bang on the money and that tim does indeed hate his own culture and wants to turn Briatin into socialist utopia for all the world’s hungry and bugger what the locals think.
Alex Salmond’s latest Tweet:
“Budgets sorted. Took me 4 days to sort out what Swinney took 4 months to cock up. Who’s the daddy.”
!
115 LOL!
As a matter of interest, have we ever identified a clear, unambiguous case of somebody being paid to post on PB? If so, who was it and what was the going rate?
116 Of course not, and these categories could always vote by post. The change was that everyone could have a postal vote without needing any reason.
Glenrothes By Election result
Labour 19,946
SNP 13,209
Majority 6,737
Turnout 36,195 (52%).
Morning all,
Re: 102.
I have been interested in the debate this morning between the ‘Tedious One’ and SeanT and was astounded at his denial that discussing nationality in the way he did was not a racial argument.
This is how Aston University summarise the race relations legislation we have in this country.
Under the Race Relations Act, 1976, it is unlawful to discriminate against anyone on grounds of race, colour, nationality (including citizenship), or ethnic or national origin. All racial groups are protected from discrimination. This summary of the legislation includes major changes introduced by the Race Relations (Amendment) Act 2000 (”the RRAA”) and the Race Relations Act 1976 (Amendment) Regulations 2003 (“Race Regulations”).
Seems pretty clear to me. People should be judged individually on the merits of their ability not on grounds of race, colour, nationality (including citizenship), or ethnic or national origin or any other physical characteristic for that matter.
http://www.aston.ac.uk/staff/hr/equalops/race/
Seems to me that we can now add racist to the list of prejudices held by the ‘Tedious One’. Its getting quite long now (sexist, agist, handist, racist - have I missed one?).
Now where are those Equality Commissars? There is a defective unit of their’s that desperately needs fixing?
Off Thread.
President Obama’s halo, already dimming, (American jobs for American workers), tarnishes even further with the nomination of Tom Daschle:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/daschle_is_indefensible.html
You could not make this up -
Scottish Labour backed calls for a probe into why “an SNP government department lost confidential personal data again”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7867022.stm
BBC has the story on the UK flag being upside down (spotted by BBC viewer of course, not due to trolling the web like PB.com, oh no
)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7866938.stm
125. If Scottish Labour are ‘whiter than white’ (hmmmmmm?) then it is a perfectly valid question. If it was the Inland Revenue losing data there would be uproar and the blame laid at the door of the Labour Government so why should the SNP Government be immune until it proves that the loss was something other than incompetence?
Fair game in my eyes, Mike, but equally if Labour did have a hand in it then the repercussions should be doubly severe.
118 I think tim’s argument was that Ugandan Asians are economically more successful and therefore they should be favoured with a political privilege (the right to settle in the UK).
SeanT argued that this is racial argument.
SeanT is right. Political privilege has been conferred onto the economically successful, and hence onto particular races. Remember, tim has demonstrated that there is a clear correlation between race and economic success.
tim’s argument is a sensible argument, but it is also a racist argument.
125. Following the usual script there, aren’t they? Try to smear everyone with the same filthy dung you reek of.
125 - It seems to me to be about as valid as holding Labour accountable for losses of data by the UK government or its agencies or other bodies. (Unless you have already made up your mind that Labour were somehow involved in its loss?!)
An SNP led council in Fife hands over voting details to the SNP Govt Justice dept. they are then lost. Who is to blame?!
Lots of new posters here today. Why the sudden interest? Hmmm…
128. Is Bill Gates a Ugandan Asian?
when was the last time such a record was lost?
132. A bit slow out of the blocks, though. Derek is obviously slipping.
133 Just think how successful he might have been if he were!
Postal voting encourages corruption and should be limited as much as is possible, I question the motives of anyone who wants to increase its use. The idea that we need to make voting easier is the politics of those who seek to ignore corruption for partisan reasons, we need to make people more desirous of voting instead and that means a change in politicians not in elections.
In this case it could easily be a cock up but for us to be questioning these circumstances shows how the system of voting needs to be tightened quickly before we lose belief in our votes counting.
[99] - “Afro-Caribbean black men can, on average, run faster than European white men.”
Just out of interest, but what do you base that on? The Olympics, for example, merely provides evidence about one extreme tail of the distribution, and says nothing about the average or the skew…
120. you could easily work out from declared income and allowances what Nick Palmer MP is paid, per minute, to post on here during work hours.
More idiots abroad on pb.com today than you can shake a stick at.
The charge that tim is a racist is entirely spurious and emanates from halfwits inspired by their leader lackwit Sean T.
Chances are that lackwit was being funny in his attempt to regain his title in 2009.No such chances are available to the assembled halfwits.
Hurst Llama.I have form longer than your arm.I have been posting all over the internet for years but chiefly on Betfair.
I challenge you to dig up ANY post of mine that has been remotely racist.
Get going !
135 - I heard that all Draper’s bots were on strike because of the threat of contracting out the work to a more cost-efficient Italian poster. At first the British bots didnt believe that a single poster from Milan could be more industrious than the combined efforts of 60 hacks working from the basement of Labour’s HQ but Draper was soon able to show them otherwise.
136. LOL! He could have set up business in the North East and now Newcastle would have been a Conservative stronghold……
;o)
141. There may be 60 personas but there certainly aren’t 60 hacks.
131
If there has been electoral fraud then it is a criminal offence.
It would be highly likely that the perpetrators of such a fraud would not want either the fraud or their participation to be discovered so they might well take steps to prevent this.
So the optimal course would be to investigate the disappearance of the registers and examine the sequence of events for unusual occurrences.
Although even no unusual occurrences would not be proof that no fraud was perpetrated and likewise unusual occurrences would present no proof that a crime has been committed, it may well act as indicators as to the validity of the By-Election result.
141. LOL!
The worst argument against the possibility of fraud at Glenrothes is that ‘no-one would do it’.
All good thriller style crimes start small and snowball as people cover up evidence (like knock off another witness…) and the most likely nefarious explanation for the voting register to disappear if there was one is that someone was trying to cover up something.
We do now have a bit of a history of postal voting fraud in this country, sadly.
I can imagine a small fiddle of some kind getting out of hand and panic setting in when the the Prime Minister himself took an interest in the result and the possibility arises of him being implicated. A small crime leading to a bigger and bigger cover up. Great story, make a good film.
I can easily *imagine* it, but that doesn’t mean its what I think actually happened.
143 - Oh bless you. The truth is out there.
141
I think you might be right. This is on Iain Dales blog, its not only the bots who are on strike?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SYhH3GAxx-
re 126 I shouldn’t worry to much, you often see the EU flag flown upside down as well.
148 link wont work pop over http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/ and look at the campaign shop on their website
138. there have been studies actually. certain genes found predominantly in the carribbean promote fast-twitch muscle growth which is why these guys are so dominant at many sports where speed or strength are involved, despite the tiny relative populations of carribbean islands (and often racial prejudice is against them getting to the top).
“it has been argued” that these differences could have come about from survival of the fittest during the slave trading era. not sure if there is any truth in that.
similarly, certain east african genes are associated with oxygen uptake and therefore long distance running performance.
146 That’s your trouble, Marcus. You are too bloody sensible. How did you get into the Tory Party?
Btw, I have money riding on you to win at the next GE. Howzit going?
140 Let me see if I can summarize this posting: “… lackwit …. lackwit … halfwit … halfwit … lackwit.”
Impressively argued, URW.
146. Indeed - and Scottish labour have been involved in activities far more nefarious than mere voting fraud…
Firstly, can I say that 99% of what tim says is stupid, and I find his repetition and obsession with irrelevances rather annoying.
Also, can I say up front that to discriminate against anyone on the basis of race is stupid.
But there is strong evidence that people from different backgrounds achieve different outcomes as things currently stand, particularly at the extreme outcomes, both good and bad. I strongly suspect the reasons are overwhelmingly sociological.
On a per capita bases, Ashkenazi Jews are overrepresented amongst Nobel Prize winners and Fields medallists. On a per capita basis, Kenyans and Ethiopians are overrepresented amongst long distance running Olympic champions. On a per capita basis, Russians are overrepresented amongst chess grandmasters. And yes, on a per capita basis, Ugandan Asians are overrepresented amongst millionaires.
Of course, the same is true for extreme negative behaviours - we see unfortunate overrepresentation of certain groups in gang membership, in prison populations, etc.
Surely, it is wrong to cry ‘racism’ at what are, indeed, facts.
Taking the optimists view that we can improve our society, surely the correct thing to do is to figure out what sociological factors lead to success in various fields, and see if it would be possible to see those traits becoming more widespread across society.
Similarly, we know that the gang culture is especially bad amongst (a hardcore minority of) young black men. Again, the right approach is to try to figure out why this should be, and how to solve the particular problem. Screaming racism because we don’t target Polish grannies when dealing with gangs sounds a little stupid to me.
What is deeply wrong is prejudging someone based on the aforementioned differences. Anyone suggesting a litmus test for immigrants based on their race is completely off the wall.
But I don’t think acknowledging the existence of differences in outcomes is racist in itself, and I think it is slightly damaging to suggest it is.
140.
The charge that tim is a racist is entirely spurious and emanates from halfwits
So that would be the halfwit Labour Government of James Callaghan who introduced the race relations act in 1976 or the halfwit labour Government of Tony Blair who amended it in 2000 and 2003?
The legislation is clear!
One question - Did you perchance vote for them? So the question follows is ‘Who is the real half wit’?
151 ed. You could argue that Liberal Democrats run faster than the members of any other Party because they have to.
155. yep. but note that, of your examples, some are purely genetic (how fast you can run), some are probably purely social (gang culture), some are down to a very complex mixture (chess, nobel prize winners, millionaires), often including large inputs from the behaviour of other people (gang culture, millionaire)
i don’t think it helps to confuse these factors.
Gwynfa 153.Let me clarify.I think Sean T is a half- wit which clearly makes him your superior.
152 - Me too…so…Marcus…a little extra weaving if you don’t mind!
140. Come on URW, play the white man.
Adjusting expected Olympic Medals by population and Jamaica or the Bahamas come out top, followed usually by Autralia, Cuba and a lot of ex Soviet countries.
Adjusting expected Olympic medals by wealth and Ethiopia comes out top.
Tim has don a wonderful job moving you all off subject.
Well done tim, 10/10
#132. Possibly because Scottish people are more inclined to comment on Scottish threads?
Och, thats noo to say I wouldna lik to see the back of that silly wee mun Christopher Huhne at the next leccie. Can yoo noo do another thread on this pliz?
@158 (ed)
Fair enough.
163. Surely a gold star is the traditional reward?
163. Yes once again a whole thread hijacked by a pointless and tedious argument.
159 Well, URW, I’d have to say that SeanT is vastly your superior as well.
I rarely insult other posters myself. But I quite enjoy those who insult with panache and wit and style — and SeanT clearly does that.
You don’t.
A few questions:
1) Who is meant to keep these records safe?
2) When will the investigation commence and who will conduct it?
3) Will the Tories and Lib Dems renew calls for reformation of the postal voting system to slash the potential for fraudulent practices?
4) Could this mean that fraudulent voting really does have a significant effect at the next GE?
5) What penalty would apply to a person if they were found guilty of stealing/destroying these records or committing such fraud?
168 Gwynfa. Give me time.
169. Re. 5) promotion to the House of Lords?
169
Timing is all.
And the timeline suggests the records were lost very soon after being lodged.
Which suggests
either the peoplein charge have lost them by putting them in the wrong place or
deliberate theft.
Bumbling boob Biden, having just embarrassed his boss by making fun of Chief Justice Roberts’ fumbling of the inaugural oath administration, himself blew it when attempting to administer a ceremonial oath to Hillary Clinton:
“After smoothly saying and having Clinton repeat that she does “solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic,” Biden, who was using a note card, faltered. “… that I will bear — excuse me … that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same …” He then continued without incident after a hearty laugh from the audience.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/02/03/biden-fumbles-clinton-oath/
If foot-in-mouth were a disease, dear old Joe would have departed this world some time ago.
PtP - 152. I am getting an increasing amount of unsolicited contact from people with constituency issues and I take that as a promising sign.
Canvassing is very good, what has been especially interesting is the subtle change in the view of my canvassing team over the six years - many streets and polling districts that they used to say were ‘a waste of time’ have become ‘good areas’.
When I did the 2005 election we made lots of mistakes in Torbay - especially in the on-the-ground organisational things like telling and knocking up, which I am totally certain we won’t make again.
We have won a series of elections since 2005 - all of them, in fact. My team is battle hardened, motivated, reasonably well funded and prepare. Basically we are in a different league to last time.
In earlier times I was one of the fiercest proponents of keeping threads ‘on topic’. Still am really.
I was shouted down and told that ‘if we stayed on topic there wouldn ‘t be 100 replies’.
That is fair enough in the context of a forum that highly values quantity over quality…..and no beef with that.
The previous thread was needlessly and selectively culled, which accounts for the overspill on this one.
163 - I don’t think we were ever really very much on topic. As conspiracy theories go, this isn’t Roswell.
For a conspiracy theory to take off the ground, we have to identify cui bono. On this occasion, that’s easy: Labour. However, we immediately run into a serious difficulty, in that there is no obvious stage in the process for Labour to arrange for the mislaying of the marked register.
Our host has already commented that he has never known the marked register to go missing in this way. It could, I guess, have taken place by criminal act. But let’s examine the likelihood of this.
Was this a particularly important by-election for Labour to win? No. It had been widely assumed that Labour would lose - indeed, the by-election was held on the Morus-approved day for most effectively minimising the impact of a Labour loss. By the time of the election, Brown Bounce II was well underway, and the pressure was largely off Gordon Brown well before the date of the by-election. A defeat would have been a setback but not a disaster.
As Marcus Wood notes, it is possible to envisage a small fiddle followed by a panic. But since it was unnecessary, it seems pretty unlikely to me.
The matter should be investigated, but I’m not expecting to be regaled over coming months by a Scottish deepthroat.
163 Exactly. Moving back to the original thread (and for all the conspiracy theorists), if ballot rigging is ever proven, was Glenrothes a dry run for the next GE? It’s an ideal opportunity to gauge public and political reaction to suspect postal voting, see what one could possibly get away with and fine tune the system for next time.
afternoon all. I hadn’t heard about the Glenrothes marked register going missing.
As a Tory and the PBer who most expected an SNP victory, I have to put hand on heart and say Labour could not have failed to win, given the ultimate result.
BUT 2 things do make me have lingering concerns as to the scale of the victory. 1) If the marked register has gone, it means that for example the location of those exercising postal votes cannot be checked. I would be very suspicious if there was a spike in postal votes in SNP dominated council wards and wards where the SNP’s TRicia Marwick did well in 2007. 2) The turnout was much higher than would be normal in any Scottish by-election, Glasgow East notwithstanding.
I had personal experience of diry dealings by Labour campaign workers. In 1987 in what is now Glasgow East, the Labour campaign team sent minibuses round the down and out hostels, bundled the poor alcoholics into them, took them down to vote for David Marshall and then dropped them off at the pubs. They walked them right into the Polling STations saying constantly Vote Marshall, vote Marshall and when some of my polling agents went to object to this, they were threatened with physical assault as indeed I was myself on polling day by Labour party workers.
176. i’ve heard that deepthroat has been rerouted anyway, to provide BJs for british workers.
174
Just mention Gordon Brown when you are canvassing Marcus, and be ready with a few blood pressure tablets for the needy.
174 Glad to hear it, Marcus.
Very best of luck. (I actually meant that, and not just because I have money on you!)
179 - That sounds like an election-winning policy to me. Where do I queue up?
“The SNP convener for the Central Fife area, John Beare, asked to see the marked registers in November, but it was the end of January before the nationalists were told they were missing.”
Why did it take weeks to respond to a regular request? It is starting to smell.
158. How fast you can run is probably a mixture of different factors. Training, determination etc. as well as natural ability.
If you can earn as much in a comfy heated office why spend your days running in a circle?
183. Who is in charge of keeping these registers?
185 Oh dear.
I think this case strengthens the argument for electronic counting of votes, with results published by polling district, when suspiciously high levels of turnout, postal votes etc. would become immediately apparent.
183. Why did it take weeks to respond to a regular request?
Likely because they knew the gravity of the cock-up. Had an inquest about it. Searched high and low for it and couldn’t find it. Had another inquest. Searched high and low again and couldn’t find it. Enjoyed their Christmas Holiday. Had another inquest to decide how they might disclose the information. Had another search just in case it had turned up in the interim and still couldn’t find it and then finally bit the bullet and disclosed.
Now here’s a thought! Do we remember in the Glasgow East by-election when Labour demanded a recount? I remember thinking this quite strange at the time but thought no more of it. Now we know why it was done: Labour thought they had secured Glasgow East with a similar vote-rigging scam and thus were genuinely shocked when the SNP stormed to victory. The recount was called in panic by an incredulous Labour Party! Why did the scam fail that time? Perhaps some of the ballot riggers weren’t able to carry out their plans at the last moment, or perhaps the SNP lead was so large they managed to get over the finishing line anyway. All very disturbing.
185. naggers?
187 - It’s true - I have documentary evidence:
http://tinyurl.com/yrmt36
186
What usually happens to the registers after Election Night?
They are, of themselves, not worth anything. Security would be minimal (in government’s case, negligible)
Electronic voting. I think not, more open to hacking and alteration than actual votes cast in person. its the postal votes that need sorting out.
189. But that suggests the registers disappeared almost immediately…which is in itself very suspicious.
191 - natch
195
My point at 193.
When would these registers be inspected after the election? If at all?
184. yes but it is overwhelmingly clear that places like Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados, etc. and their emigrants provide the elite of every speed/strength sport they try their hand at, despite tiny populations.
US sport provides the interesting data, because
* a lot of effort and expense is pumped into getting the fastest and strongest guys through college into pro sports
* black guys are certainly not favoured by the (often conservative) institutions involved
* segregation provides interesting before/after case studies.
Tim,
You have made statements which cannot be regarded as anything but racist (e.g. you said that one ethnic group outperforms all others. 12:16 3/2/09).
Such stereotyping has been unacceptable for many, many years and I am truly amazed that someone, outside the extremes of the political spectrum (e.g. the BNP), would still cling to such an attitude and totally gobsmacked that they would seek to publish it.
You decline to withdraw your views. I trust, therefore, that if from time to time I mention your beliefs in the superiority of one ethnic group over others.
Oh, whilst I am writing; URW, please read what I actually said before you fly off the handle.
194. Given the Governments record on IT projects can you imagine how long it would take to get working properly and how much the budget would overrun.
S&S —
Your post on Obama’s “tough love” was hilarious. You might have found a fantastic way to make fun of the guy. I’d trademark it if I were you. Many caricaturists might buy…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/02/is-an-assisted-places-scheme-being-planned-for-jacqui/#comment-927643
199. don’t be so ridiculous.
199 198
and again you change the subject.
Any by-election betting in sight?
I’m missing it!
203. It’s remarkable how many people seem keen to outline their personal tinpot theories about race and ability today.
I think I am right in saying that in extreme cases a court can demand the stubs with the ballot numbers on and investigate. I think they have been stored under commission rules. It does seem extremely odd for a marked register to be “lost”. I’ve never heard of it happening. Should the marked register really be lost I think a full investigation should follow with the stubs and original numbers released.
PtP @181 Thanks- and rest assured, the pressure from David Cameron, George Osbourne, Eric Pickles, Lord Ashcroft, Patrick McLoughlin, my association Chairman and 700 local members is as nothing compared to the knowledge that if I fail on the day I’d be letting you down… !
184. If one were to resettle a population of, say, 10,000 white English people in the Ethiopian highlands, put them on a subsistence diet, make them walk everywhere and dangle the prospect of unimaginable wealth before them, I expect a half-decent long-distance runner would emerge in a generation or two.
203. couldn’t care less about glenrothes, unless anything comes of it.
205
Yes
Must be the weather.
Nothing to do with possible corruption.
Or maybe they have sh1t for brains?
I favour the latter.
203 I think we safely assume that the Glenrothes result, and the loss of the registers is considered a sensitive subject by Draper control. Now why would that be?
205
And another at 208
206, assuming the stubs haven’t been lost as well.
Is the loss of such an important document cause for the election to be replayed?
What is the legal significance. If the election cannot be proved, by the votes cast, surely it must be called null and void?
212 Well done to them. They’ve found the pb.com diversionary trigger - racism. And it works everytime.
o/t http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/feb/03/gordon-brown-bill-clinton
This raises a clear problem for Labour at the next election. What exactly is their big idea for the future? Why should people vote for another five years of Labour? The autumn “bounce” notwithstanding, Labour ministers have looked very tired and out of steam for a long time and Gordon Brown has never been able to map out his vision for the type of country he wants Britain to look like in 10 years time and how he proposes to get there.
The Tories have some radical ideas for education and (less so now) welfare and have the advantage of the time for a change narrative. Will Labour be able to find a positive vision for the GE or will they rely on negative attacks on the Tories?
105 Mark, Edinburgh. As you will know by now the register was in the keeping of Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court.
125 Mike. The Labour Rebuttal Unit has swung into action. But IF something nefarious has happened it would be akin to Nixon blaming the Watergate owners for the “plumbers’” burglary!
208. the actual recorded results of ethiopian and kenyan distance runners amount to something more than one or two half-decent runners!
unless there is some ‘magic’ about training at altitude that has not already been uncovered, the known genetic differences seem far more likely to be the cause.
note that it is highly likely these guys would also excel at other endurance sports such as cycling, if there was any culture of doing them, or money for equipment.
85 stjohn, from theorangeparty
Meanwhile a question marks hang over around 7,000 requests made for postal votes very shortly before the election.
Schoolmaster and head of Brown’s old school, Lindsay Roy, won the by-election on November 6 last year polling 19,946 votes. SNP candidate Peter Grant, who is also leader of Fife Council, came second with 13,209 votes on a turnout of 52.37 per cent, higher than expected.
So the number of postal votes is just slightly larger than the majority. Convenient.
217. If that is correct, doesn’t it narrow down the list of possible miscreants rather dramatically? I doubt the Kircaldy Sheriff Court is a vast bureaucracy.
When will the police be asked to investigate?
201- I just wanted to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. And since we know he is the most wonderful man who ever lived, his poking fun at the obesity of Jessica Simpson can only be viewed as a heartfelt intervention, intended to save the poor girl from diabetes, heart disease, or worse, rather than a thoughtless insult.
Educated people disdaining “dumb people who are richer than they are ” — Brooks
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/03/opinion/03brooks.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
Is anybody else, here, thinking that that’s the real roots of socialism : educated people who fancied themselves as very cleaver are getting very upset that a lot of so-called dumb, uneducated people do get very rich in a capitalist society?
So in order to alleviate their resentment, they tend to be socialistic?
206
I found this on Guido’s (apologies for copying the piece here):
“Anonymous said…
This has happened with Labour before in the local council elections in Renfrewshire. The records went missing in seats where the incumbent Labour councillors were expected to be voted out and they all managed to hang on by a handfull of votes. Had Labour lost these seats then they would have lost control of the council. When we went to check the votes these particular seats were the only ones with missing registers.
http://www.paisleyexpressions.blogspot.com
February 3, 2009 1:29 PM”
But I couldn’t find any other information to support the assertion.
221-It is a proven fact that it is definitely dangerous for a POTUS to mess with The Simpsons.
219. Were those 7000 the total postal votes, or just the ones which were requested shortly before the election. If the latter, then yes, it does look very dodgy indeed. If it’s the total then it suggests that Labour would have won anyway - surely they wouldn’t have fixed ALL of the postal votes..?
215. our discussion has already received the ultimate stamp of quality, when runnymede interrupted his continuous stream of uninformative putdowns to claim that the thread is ‘tedious’. you will find that all the best and most interesting debates in the pb.com back catalogue share this attribute.
Dear moderators: could we please moderate 185?
On topic, surely there is meant to be a chain of custody for the register?
223. Good find - as I mentioned earlier, Labour has abundant form in this area in Scotland.
221 —
218 Who cares? It’s about as off topic as possible. What’s it got to do with politics? Just give it up, or find a sporting website.
223. so, an anonymous smear on Guido, which turns out, on further investigation, to have no known basis in fact.
230. quite a lot actually. why so touchy?
225, how many postal votes are there usually in a by-election?
@221 (Stars and Stripes)
To be fair to Obama, he did not say she was ‘losing a weight battle’ - this was an incorrect transcript by NBC.
You can watch the original here and judge for yourself
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/28966818#28966818
The interviewer said “You got replaced by Jessica Simpson” followed by Obama saying “Yeah - who is in a weight battle apparently. Oh well.” Obama was just reading from the magazine cover.
This is completely bonkers. I know people are keen to to believe that Gordon Brown is some kind of super-villain, but this just couldn’t happen.
If Labour or any other party had somehow fabricated several thousand postal vote requests, those requests would still be with the council and could be checked by the police very easily.
If several thousand people suddenly found themselves registered for postal votes without their knowledge, they would know about it, and so would we. Likewise if Labour or anyone else sent in several thousand forged ballot papers in the names of people on the register, some would conflict with genuine ones and it would again be obvious.
Fabricating a few hundred ballots in areas with closed communities and very little outside scrutiny is one thing. Fabricating thousands under the scrutiny of the nations media and microscopic analysis from more than one opponent is impossible.
This also ignores the safeguards that have been incorporated into postal voting after the Birmingham scandal. Anybody who tries to fraudulently use another person’s vote would need to know both their signature and their date of birth. Again, you can see that it may be possible for some criminal to do this a few dozen times, but seven thousand? Again this can be retrospectively checked.
Under our system personation on a small scale at the polling booths is difficult to detect, but there’s no way you could do it thousands of times with tellers from all parties watching every move.
At the count, the number of ballot papers in each box will have been correlated with the numbers issued by the presiding officer of each station, in the presence of agents of all the candidates. The parties should already know those figures. Given that the polling stations probably had tellers from all the main parties on 7am-10pm, the parties will know to a good degree of approximation how many people entered each polling station.
It really isn’t surprising that postal votes spike at a by-election. Each party would have enough workers to visit every postal voter several times until they returned their vote, which normally parties don’t have the resources to do.
There are a number of people on this site who are very familiar with the mechanics of the electoral process. I’d challenge one of them to come with just one way that a fraud on this scale would be possible.
If no one can, perhaps we should change the subject…
232 Bored of obvious diversionary posts about sport and athletics on a political betting website (ptp’s excellent horse racing tips excepted).
@231:
Labour are adept enough at electoral fraud not to leave an obvious chain of evidence. They’ve had plenty of practice, especially in the Northern lands.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Glenrothes is just the lastest in a long line. It certainly explains a rather counterintuitive result, and also how a grade-A gutless shit like McDoom allowed himself to be seen campaigning.
223. There is a similar comment on the Scotsman website as well -
‘This is no small matter.
The marked up register is used to confirm that the number of votes announced tally with, or are no greater, than the number of ballot papers issued. It is the main defence against ballot boxes being stuffed illegally.
We know all about this in Renfrewshire, some years ago a number of marked up registers went missing here, in a number of instances they covered some council wards where the uniform swing against Labour that was recorded against the Labour Party elsewhere suddenly ended, only to return again in the neighbouring wards. They were never found and the whole matter was swept under the carpet.
Has it reached the stage where we need UN observers at our elections?’
234- Yes, it turns out that the MSNBC transcript was incorrect, and that Obama really said that Simpson is “in” a weight battle rather than “losing” a weight battle. A distinction without much of a difference, but there you have it. NBC interviewer Matt Lauer, who was grinning ear to ear throughout the interview and generally trying his best to ingratiate himself to The One, certainly didn’t flinch at the comment (for some reason, Lauer’s journalistic performance conjures images of Mel Brooks’ Piss Boy from History of the World; just thought I’d share that with you).
235. agree, unless anything more turns up this is nothing more than a wild conspiracy. i’m sure one or two of the tabloids will be digging.
Does this missing register mean I get my money back from Betfair?
235
“nybody who tries to fraudulently use another person’s vote would need to know both their signature and their date of birth. Again, you can see that it may be possible for some criminal to do this a few dozen times, but seven thousand? ”
Sorry but that is a thin argument.
It’s relatively easy to get names addresses and DOB.. and if you have an organised ring doing it - and for say 7,000 votes you WOULD have to be organised…
And you do not need to falsify ALL the postal votes. 3,000 would be enough..
“If no one can, perhaps we should change the subject…”
And what is the subject of the thread, pray?
Pathetic.
236. well you don’t have to get involved. this site has always been the home of “organic discussion” on several simultaneous topics.
241 - No
On topic, it seems that at the very least, the search for the register should not be abandoned. If Scotland Yard has enough time on its hands to root around in various MP’s offices for nothing, they should be able to pencil in some time to look for the missing electoral records, n’est-ce pas?
245 - I’m not sure it’s an issue for the Metropolitan Police but it is surely worth another root around the files all right.
245. I doubt ‘Bob’ or his counterpart north of the border will be asked to take up this case anytime soon.
Electoral fraud in Britain is now mainstream. 2005 allowed Labour back into power based on postal voting in marginals. They’ve got away with it ever since, and at last even Mike Smithson is waking up to that fact that Labour are a fraudulent government.
Brits are so trusting. ‘It couldn’t happen here’ is most peoples’ thoughts on the matter of electoral fraud. It is happening - on a regular basis against minor parties like SNP, BNP and now habitually in contests with the Conservatives. Brown should be hung drawn and quartered along with Blair, Mandelson and all the other slimy shits who’ve ruined Britain’s democracy and economy.
A few mediaevel punishments are required to express the anger of the populace at being cheated out of their votes. There is nothing between Brown and Lenin his political hero.
@245:
In general, one should apply Hanlon’s Razor: assume incompetence, not malice.
However, Labour have given enough evidence to suggest that organised malice is a more sensible default for explaining their behaviour rather than just their astronomical incompetence.
@234 (Stars and Stripes)
But it’s obvious to anyone watching that 1) Obama didn’t bring the subject up 2) He didn’t say anything that didn’t originate on the cover of the magazine.
I think Obama is completely blameless in this pointless controversy.
On continuing to push Daschle’s appointment, or in not keeping his 5-day legislation inspection promise, or in keeping the $3bn or so that Republicans object to in the stimulus package, or any number of serious things, you may have a case… but the way the Jessica Simpson thing seems to have been overplayed just makes the GOP look very petty.
194. 200. No, I wrote electronic counting, not electronic voting.
Already used in Scottish parliamentary elections, and the London mayoral/assembly elections (both of which Labour lost, if you recall).
246- It’s true that I have no idea who should be looking for it, but it ought to be some entity that is equipped to perform a proper investigation for property that has gone “missing” under suspicious circumstances, perhaps even presumably stolen.
245 Democracy is way down the list on Plods list of priorities.
“If several thousand people suddenly found themselves registered for postal votes without their knowledge, they would know about it,”
Er?
250- Loosen your tie, dude. If you can’t have any fun in politics, it just isn’t worth it.
242, explain how this ‘organised ring’ would work please?
How would they get the ballot papers, and how would they return them?
Do you think three thousand people could be signed up for postal votes without ANY of them noticing or complaining to the authorities?
Pathetic? I think it’s your daft allegations which are pathetic.
227 - See 192…
256. I wouldn’t have thought a local Labour party would drive an MP to suicide or be involved with drugs barons either, and yet…
249 - Of course, in this case, it would be SNP rather than Labour incompetence (if we must insist on laying the blame for administrative bungling at the door of political parties that is).
252 - What is suspicious about the circumstances? What basis is there for believing it could have been stolen?
219. ScottP. Thanks for that. I do think in the interests of transparency and democracy we ought to know how many postal votes each party received.
Completely O/T. I see from BBC website that Andrew Lloyd Webber has written the UK’s entry for the Eurovision Song Contest this year and appears to be managing the singer. Now I know that the voting patterns in this contest are completely set against the UK nowadays but with a Lloyd Webber number could we overturn that disadvantage? I’ve just had a bet on the UK with Betfair at 14.5/1.
253. Unless money is involved.
Problems with registers disappearing in 2004:
http://scottish-parliament.net/business/committees/petitions/or-04/pu04-1002.htm
So right, Tapestry:‘It couldn’t happen here’ is most peoples’ thoughts on the matter of electoral fraud. But then again….
In 2004, The Times uncovered widespread intimidation and postal voting fraud in local elections around the country. Ten months later, ruling on the scandal in Birmingham, Richard Mawrey, QC, presiding over an election court, found six Labour councillors guilty of corruption that would, he said, “disgrace a banana republic”. He declared that the Government’s introduction of postal voting on demand was “an open invitation to fraud”.
259- Presuming upthread facts are accurate, such records 1) never seem to disappear, 2) the declared electoral result was way out of line with what anybody was expecting, and 3) the SNP request for the records was ignored for an excessive period. When taken together, the facts provide suspicious cirumstantial evidence of funny business.
254, what I meant is they would find out about it. At least some of them would attempt to vote in person, and be told by the presiding officer that they couldn’t because they have a postal vote.
235.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/councillors-guilty-of-postal-votes-fraud-that-would-shame-a-banana-republic-531213.html
245 If thats right its taking a long time to clear up nothing.
Surely the Police could now announce they apoligise for all their actions against the Conservative member, as they are aware they are soon to be their new masters.
262. snippet from there
‘after the May 2003 election….it was found that more than half of the marked registers for the Paisley North constituency had been lost’
264- The important fact to keep in mind is that there should be an ongoing vigorous investigation into the whereabouts or fate of the register. It is premature to conclude either that it was stolen or that it was not stolen. The facts provide enough circumstantial evidence of suspicious circumstances that it would be irresponsible to jump to the conclusion that it was not stolen or improperly handled and that there is therefore no basis for further inquiry. Mirthios’ reference at post 263 to ample prior instances of proven fraud show how important it is to not sweep such matters under the rug for fear of what one might find.
268
Poor wee Wendy!
‘Dog ate my homework’ gambit.
264 - Not really seeing a strong case for suggesting possible criminality there. Still, there cant be too much harm in investigating thoroughly. It’s astonishing to see so many sensible posters rushing forward to declare themselves “unsurprised” if Labour were shown to have stolen the election.
269. about as much as an ongoing enquiry into alleged election stealing by GW Bush is useful and appropriate.
265 - “At least some of them would attempt to vote in person,” .. but not if they’re abroad, or invalided, or in hospital, or in care homes or dead.
If the register isn’t found then the senior administrator at Kirkcaldy Sheriff’s Court should be fired.
This is clearly one of their most important jobs; if they are unfit for purpose then someone else should do it.
269, I’m sure the will be an investigation. And I’m equally sure that if the investigation finds no evidence of any wrong-doing, certain people will ignore it. It’s a lose-lose situation for the Labour Party.
I just hope someone works out what happened to the registers.
271. Why is it astonishing? This government has already shown itself willing to plumb some pretty remarkable depths to remain in office.
This whole business sounds fishy, and it does nothing to restore confidence in Scottish politics after that complete fiasco with the voting systems in the Scottish Elections back in 2007. For some of us, the frustration at the way that the many warnings of that impending disaster were completely ignored, still makes my blood boil. Some people were reluctant to even turn out to vote, particularly the elderly.
Again, as Mike notes, the number of postal votes in that by election was very high. And its not without a touch of irony, and a good dose of sarcasm, that I see that the postal vote operation was obviously a damn sight better than during the 2007 elections.
275- Exactly. If there is an investigation and (hopefully) the records are discovered, the conspiracy theories can be put to rest (and the promoters of the theories can be silenced). If a proper investigation is never done, the conspiracy theories will never go away.
273 - Surely you are barking up the completely wrong tree. The loss of the marked register does not mean we cant double check who did or didnt have a postal vote. Details of those applications will still be held (we cant be sure who returned them but why not assume everyone did for the purposes of an investigation). Therefore if Labour did use postal votes to steal the election then the evidence will still be there for people to investigate. (Though Dave H’s argument against this on the scale required here would surely be compelling to all except for the hopelessly paranoid.) If it was fraud that required the theft of the marked register then surely we are talking about ballot box stuffing.
Mind you I think anyone who thinks Labour went to these lengths in a by-election it had probably written off earlier in the campaign is probably a couple of decades short of a rosary.
“as Mike notes, the number of postal votes in that by election was very high”
Are there any figures from previous by-elections and the corresponding general election to show it was particularly high?
272- The only difference is that this involves missing electoral records, which is an objective matter fit for investigation separate and apart from anyone’s personal allegations or suspicions about who might or might not have been committing fraud. In the case of Bush’s “stolen” elections, the conspiracy theories came first, with facts desperately sought after the fact (and never discovered) to support the theories.
256
Dave H
“How would such a ring work?”
Why reinvent the wheel?
Already done … see prior link posted at 266
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/councillors-guilty-of-postal-votes-fraud-that-would-shame-a-banana-republic-531213.html
Given past history, my theory is entirely credible.. and if you read the link you can see , how, with no doubt a few judicous choices of voters who never normally vote, being too ill, too old, or who don’t care, you can apply for postal votes, obtain them and fill them in.
It’s hardly rocket science when a blueprint already exists.
Try again…
280 O/T
‘More than 500 workers at a Devon power station have staged a wildcat strike.
The Unite union said the walkout at Langage near Plymouth was in support of similar action across the rest of the UK over the use of foreign contractors.’
Bizarrely -
‘The striking workforce includes hundreds of Polish employees.’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/7867416.stm
273, and where are these fraudulently obtained ballot papers going to be delivered to?
If there were a large number of people specifying return addresses different to their original address, this would look suspicious (Unless you also think the Labour party were breaking into people’s homes, or had bribed every postman in Glenrothes?)
This would have shown up on postal vote lists BEFORE the election, and could easily be checked right now, with or without the marked registers.
262. That’s an intereting link
“The declaration is the point at which a politician is named as the winner and as the elected member. However, the process does not end until one year after polling, when the ballot papers and marked-up registers are destroyed. It is a legal requirement for those to be available. There is no point in our having laws if we do not stick to them. That is the technical end of the democratic process. ”
I wonder if the same rules apply to election of MP’s and if the process cannot be duly completed, whether there has to automatically be a re-run.
282, actually that link proves my point entirely. I refer you to this sentence:
“Many genuine voters turned up at polling stations and found they had already been allocated a postal vote which they had never seen.”
If that had happened in Glenrothes, with a fraud in the thousands, not the hundreds, we would know about it. If you think that any party could get away with those kind of stunts in a parliamentary by-election campaign, you’ve obviously never been closely involved with one.
237: ‘It certainly explains a rather counterintuitive result, and also how a grade-A gutless shit like McDoom allowed himself to be seen campaigning.’
This campaign also marked phase two of the Campbell/Mandelson plan to create ‘a cult of Sarah Brown’. Phase one had gone exceptionally well a few weeks earlier when Sarah introduced Gordon at the Labour Party Conference. No way would those guys have let her within a mile of that campaign if they weren’t 101% certain Labour would win; Glenrothes was in the bag before Sarah knocked on a single door, and Labour knew it! Moreover, that by-election also saw a Labour Party minder threaten to have a journalist murdered - the stakes were incredibly high!
Just to draw a line under this Tim-nice-but-Nazi thing, here is the subtext:
About a week ago I said - quite candidly - that I believed, if Britain needed more immigrants (and quite arguably we do and will) we should GENERALLY aim to bring them from Europe - eastern Europe etc - rather than, say, Africa or Asia.
Tim angrily asked me why, and I explained that, given the profound failures of multiculturalism, I felt that cultural assimilability was an important factor in Who Should Come Here.
Basically, I believe Europeans from a Judeo-Christian background are gonna be easier to integrate than Wahhabi imams from Pakistan, and less likely to blow me up.
I don’t wish to exclude “high achieving migrants” from elsewhere, nor do I wish to divide families already in the process of migration - but I don’t see the need to import unskilled Muslim Bangladeshis when we can import unskilled Christian Ukrainians, who are probably more likely to “fit in”.
For saying what I honestly felt, Tim had one of his retarded conniptions and accused me of being David Irving’s nastier brother, a putative member of the Klan (go back and check the thread if you can be arsed).
But then, today, Tim just came right out and said he would blatantly favour a certain kind of migrant (Ugandan Asians) cause they were “high achievers” who “outperformed” other ethnic groups - namely Brits, Jamaicans, Guyanans, (almost everyone, it seems).
It doesn’t take Ludwig Wittgenstein to see the total confusion and incoherence in Tim’s position. For a start lefties aren’t even meant to believe in “race” - yet it seems Tim does. They certainly aren’t meant to believe one group can “outperform” another - yet Tim does.
Moreover, the whole idea of lefty multiculturalism is that all are culturally equal and everyone is relatively the same - Tim seems to have abandoned this, and believes some ethno-cultural groups “outperform others”.
Duh.
The truth is: the left is f*cked up about, and obsessed with, race and racial identity. And they want to foist their hysterical neuroses on the rest of us. Bollocks to that.
OK, thread-hijack over. Glenrothes is a scandal. Possibly.
So, it is being suggested that a group of Labour Party loyalists found the names, dates of birth and signatures of ~7000 people who were abroad, invalided, in hospital, in care homes or dead.
They then applied for ~7000 postal votes, arranging for the postal vote papers to go several thousand addresses in Glenrothes corresponding to trusted Labour loyalists who could be relied upon to fill then in without arousing any suspicions.
And all this took place in front of the British media, who were covering the by-election in detail. And no-one realized. And no-one talked or blabbed this remarkable conspiracy to the press.
My impression of Scottish Labour had not been very high. It looks like an organization stuffed full of placemen, rancid fools and tyrants.
But I see I have misjudged them.
Because if Scottish Labour really carried off this slick and professional operation — without anyone blabbing — then we’re looking at a really sophisticated criminal organisation.
286. I see, so it’s just a complete coincidence that this register has vanished, is it?
281. i refer you to all the unworkable conspiracy theories (e.g. postal voting fraud) and general slander on this thread
the odds of any ballot-stuffing ever being proved, given that no suspicion was raised by anyone until now, are basically zero.
Re: Glenrothes Has any observer at the opening of the postal votes commented on what the split looked like at that time in terms of SNP vs Labour voters?
For the postal votes to have made a substantial difference to the result it would have required a ratio of 3 or 4 Labour vote for every one for the SNP. That would have been very apparent when the postal votes were first opened. Yet no feedback of a very large imbalance has been indicated by anyone. It is very odd.
207 Marcus, forgive me but I wasn’t aware of the fact you are to be our Standard Bearer in Torbay come the GE. It is one of my 10 most favourite places in England, somewhere I spent many happy family holidays in the 1970s and I shall take great pleasure in seeing CON Gain with a majority of at least 5,000 on election night.
289: ‘And all this took place in front of the British media, who were covering the by-election in detail.’
A British media whose members the Labour Party were making death threats against! No wonder they were jittery about the press when a massive vote-rigging scandal was underway.
288. that was going so well until your usual “lefty” straw man turned up at the party.
you did call him a racist though, without much obvious justification
289 - Almost certainly, yes. Whatever about that, there is no conceivable link to some grand postal vote fraud operation.
289. 292. But this is missing the point a little - remember that for most of the campaign, a very tight result was expected. As a result, the level of fraud thought necessary to swing the result might only have been in the region of a few hundred votes - something that could certainly have been achieved ‘under the radar’.
It is in my view extremely unlikely that Labour actually stole the election, but it is perfectly possible that fraud did occur with the intention of doing so. As I mentioned earlier, how ironic it would be if this proves correct - that fraud took place but need not have done so.
292
“Labour insiders said they were pleased to be in contention on the last day of campaigning, but claimed the party was behind and was bracing itself for defeat when the result was announced in the early hours of Friday morning.
Although Labour is understood to have won the postal vote by about 10 percentage points, heavy rain from mid-afternoon could have taken away the last glimmer of hope of clawing back the Nationalists’ lead.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3394094/Scottish-National-Party-win-predicted-as-count-begins-in-Glenrothes-by-election.html
260 stjohn - Re Eurovision, stupid I know but I can’t find this market on betfair - please can you help?
This blog doesn’t half contain some rubbish(a little of posted by me granted)but these vote rigging allegations take the biscuit.Haven’t you lot got anything better to talk about if you are stuck at home, unable to get to work/school?
286.We seem to have managed to lose an electoral register that was used in a by election 3 months ago.
Yet oddly enough, Scotlandspeople have been making a mint out of Scottish records, some of which date back centuries, and survived wars, fire, floods, pestilence, and general old age…..
Frankly, it would be almost impossible for Labour to successfully fake thousands of postal votes. Dozens would be possible, maybe even a hundred or two - but not thousands.
That doesn’t excuse the fact that the Sheriff’s Court have failed big-style, and need to take responsibility.
291- Find the register. That should be the only goal at this point. The conclusions can come after the investigation has or hasn’t found it, or at least discovered what happened to it. I don’t see why a Labour supporter should be any less supportive of a thorough investigation than anyone else who cares about the integrity of elections, unless said Labour supporter fears the outcome of the investigation.
296 That is possible — minor fraud — I agree.
It is even possible that the reason why the register has disappeared is to cover up minor fraud on the part of one or other of the parties.
Guido on Gordo’s leak….
http://www.order-order.com/2009/02/met-police-have-received-mps-complaint.html
289. It doesn’t necessarily have to have been 7000 votes. If there was any skulduggery, which nobody can seriously suggest without further evidence, then it could have involved a much smaller number, given that both main Parties expected the majority to be a few hundred votes.
IF any wrong-doing DID occur involving 500-1000 votes, then it would not have affected the end result, which was probably more heavily influenced by the huge interest rate cut on the day. However, that would not prevent those who perpetrated any alleged possible vote rigging from wanting to cover their tracks.
“you did call him a racist though, without much obvious justification
by ed February 3rd, 2009 at 4:18 pm”
lol:
“Ugandan Asians perform better econonomically and educationally than an average of other British Pasport holders….
Ugandan Asians outperform British Passport holders of all colours and Origins. Jamaicans,Cornishmen,Guyanans Scots,Indians,Pakistanis etc etc.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm”
Imagine I was saying this: imagine I was claiming that a certain ethnic group, say “Christian whites”, was uniquely high-achieving, outperformed all others educationally and economically, and should therefore get preference in terms of immigration.
I don’t think it would take a knob like you very long to call me a racist.
296. Snap, runnymede. Sorry, didn’t mean to copy your theory.
293- And it wasn’t just any by-election either. Weren’t there esteemed folks here on PB last October soberly speculating on Brown’s fate should Labour lose the seat? It seems the stakes were almost unprecedentedly high, certainly high enough to give certain people reason to come up with creative ways to win the election.
296. but this removes the main reason for anyone caring - most people are only getting hot under the collar here because they genuinely can’t understand how the Lab party won, and therefore assume that 7000 votes must have been fraudulent.
305. snap.
Out of interest - what is the legal position on this? If fraud involving, say, 1000 votes was uncovered would the election be invalid or not?
298 Re Eurovision, stupid I know but I can’t find this market on betfair - please can you help?
Under Special Bets then General.
302 S&S - Wise lawyerly words, S&S. However, they’ve presumably looked hard already, so it may well be that the register won’t be found. In which case, the political implications are interesting, and (as we’ve seen in this thread), not good for Labour, which is already under pressure on the sleaze front.
Perhaps the most interesting comment upthread is from Neil (a Labour supporter, I believe) at 270: ‘It’s astonishing to see so many sensible posters rushing forward to declare themselves “unsurprised” if Labour were shown to have stolen the election.’
Quite. Labour have got a bit of an image problem, and once that starts then (fairly or unfairly) it tends to become self-reinforcing.
309. I think you are missing the point Ed. People are not getting hot under the collar because Labour might have fraudulently won the election.
They are getting hot under the collar because they think the whole think stinks and if it were proven that there were any underhand methods used, whether it affected the result or not, it is an effront to our democratic voting system.
Apologies to go off topic but I thought this might be of interest. Is the Prime Minister to be investigated by the Met given his confession?
From Guido……
http://www.order-order.com/2009/02/met-police-have-received-mps-complaint.html
304 - oh, that leak, I completely forgot about that leak, I thought it was more information on last weeks leaking incident at the Press Conference
313 jsfl that is uncanny, see 304
308 - When the by-election was originally announced, there was some speculation that it might decide Gordon Brown’s fate. By the time of the by-election itself, Gordon Brown was already safe, having saved the world and announced that it was no time for a novice*.
*Other than Barack Obama, naturally.
pah! MTF beat me. Apologies for the duplicate link!
SNP are the government - surely they do not have to ask for an enquiry, they can institute it, if necessary requiring evidence on oath. Have they done so? If not, why not?
310. If you look at my post at 284, runnymede. I raised the same question, given the quote from the investigation where the register previously went missing in a Scottish election (local I believe)
315. LOL! As I said before ‘great minds’ and all that…..
316 in reality didnt the SNP get taken to task about some scare about old people (not) being looked after (IIRC).
I note the Scottish budget will pass with Lib Dem support. Can I suggest this as at least a partial victory for the Lib Dems. Stare down Salmond on the first budget and win concessions for the second one. I may be spinning but it’s how the party could portray it.
312. explain, then, why they are at the centre of all these ridiculous conspiracies? any objective investigation would start at the sheriffs court and/or the SNP council.
that the Lab party happened to win a safe Lab seat is not, on its own, grounds to suspect them of anything.
313. Actually it would be rather worse than an ‘affront’ - it would be a serious criminal offence.
46 - If there was no one on the grassy knoll, then why did all the eye-witnesses watching the motorcade say they heard shots coming from the grassy knoll. Oh, I bet you think they were all conspiracy theorists getting their two bits in early.
First unofficial verdict - [there was no trial, though some moron on the BBC Saturday morning news recently told the nation that Oswald was 'tried and convicted' of Kennedy's murder] - Warren Commission - nutter with Mannlicher Carcano rifle hits two human beings from great distance while the targets are moving.
Second unofficial verdict - House Select Committee on Assassinations - it had to be at least two people firing from different positions. But of course American senators and representatives, being American, are all retarded, so they were wrong.
Fact - in criminal cases, later verdicts [e.g. Sion Jenkins] quash earlier ones.
312 - “Neil (a Labour supporter, I believe)”
You are very wrong on that score. Not buying the possibility of Labour stealing this by-election victory does not make one a Labour supporter.
316 postscript - see for example the tenor of Mr Smithson’s original post in these threads:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/10/27/will-glenrothes-be-gordons-personal-triumph/
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/10/23/will-gord-be-able-to-shrug-off-a-glenrothes-set-back-2/
How many polling stations were there in Glenrothes?
A few thousand dodgy votes in one lump would probably be noticed, but if an organised fraud has been perpetrated, it is more likely to have been a smaller number of votes at each station, topped off by a believable number of postal votes. Plus *all* the registers have gone, not a select one or two. (Q. Is there a register for postal votes? If so, is this among the missing?)
If they find the registers, then all well and good, the SNP can get on with its ferreting. If they don’t turn up, then the police and the Electoral Commission should be brought in.
306. maybe, if you believe the whole world to be a united, free, utopian brotherhood where demographic does not affect life outcomes. neither uganda, asia, nor britain fall into that category as far as i am aware, so i would be inclined to say he was not being racist.
298. Peter. See HenryH at 311. Special Bets then General.
Thanks HenryH.
Ed’s attitude seems to be that it doesn’t really matter if there is an attempt to rig an election, providing it doesn’t affect the end result.
Should people not be concerned, Ed, IF, and I emphaise “if”, some wrong-doing occured in an attempt to change the result?
I am concerned with what seems to be another conspiracy - the sudden withdrawal of reports on the unofficial strikes by the BBC.(and I think Sky too). This was developing into a possible national emergency, now apparently a non-event. What is going on? If this is the result of government pressure in “the national interest”, then it is a disgrace.
If the result was believed to be close, there is no more reason to suspect Labour than the SNP of minor fraud.
Or even the LibDems, as they regularly believe they can win from 4th place.
334. Except that Labour has all the form in this area, in Scotland.
#216. St. Andrew.
Yes, tks very much. Been put right on that one as you say.
Any evidence it ever got as far as Kirkaldy - presumably they have to sign for it? Sorry if someone else has already answered this one, but I do try to read most posts.
If so there can’t be very many suspects as indeed some of the other posts have already pointed out?
Interesting that the SNP predicted their vote in Glenrothes almost exactly correctly (they were about 12 out or something), and were convinced this was enough to win. What they didn’t expect was for Labour to increase their vote from the GE - a very unusual achievement for a governing party in a mid-term by-election.
On the other hand, if Labour were getting back into their old habit of rigging elections, why didn’t they do it in Glasgow East? Presumably it would’ve been easier for them there, since they controlled the council, the Holyrood seat etc.
332. all the evidence suggests that the SNP are at least as likely to have perpetrated any fraud, if indeed there was any fraud.
and yet the result of the election has been continually referenced as a justification for accusing the winners, who lost a good chunk of their majority, of massive fraud.
217 runnymede
Correct. Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court is not a very large building. It’s near the centre of Kirkcaldy and not very far from Gordon Brown’s father’s former church, nor from GB’s former school.
On another blog-site someone is trying to ascertain how far it is from GB’s Constituency Office! Now that could be interesting (but not fatal).
337. I think there might be some confusion about the issue of “council control” which refers to the number of elected councillors, and bears no relation to the political allegiances of the non-elected officials who are responsible for conducting elections…
337. this seems odd because the byelection was in the public eye and yet turnout was down on 2005. if they thought they could win with that (or if you believe that thousands of votes were fraudulent), wouldn’t that be an unrealistically low real turnout for a high profile byelection?
339 - “Now that could be interesting”
How???????????????
The mind boggles.
337. Possible that the desperation quotient rose between Glasgow and Glenrothes….
There is no doubt that there is cause for concern about the management of the Glenrothes by-election; but that is not the same thing as corrupt practices.
At the 2007 local elections I was pretty confident that we had won our ward; yet when the declaration came, the Tories were ahead by a small margin. We had won decisively in terms of votes actually cast at the polling station. But the Tories had arranged postal votes for most of their supporters, and so they won. Neither illegal nor corrupt on their part.
Looking at the list of postal voters now, the vast majority are still identifiable as Tory supporters.
In byelections, especially when parties are out to win, the obvious thing to do is to arrange postal votes for their supporters. So I find nothing surprising that there should have been a large number of new postal voters registered in Glenrothes, just in time for the byelection. It would have ben surprising if there had not been.
The other issue is the disappearance of the marked register. This clearly ought not to have happened. However, I woud not be surprised if this turned out to be a simple human mistake. With the almost permanent reorganisation of local government, there are a lot of people without the relevant experience in charge of our elections. I cannot be the only poster here to have witnesssed mistake after mistake in the running of elections?
I cannot see what advantage there might be for the Labour Party in having the marked register destoyed, unless they had arranged votes for deceased electors (as suggested above).
On the other hand, I can quite easily imagine some over-enthusiastic but ignorant administrator, thinking the election was over and done with, having the marked register shredded.
The various reasons suggested as to why it would be impossible to fraud 7000 votes seem convincing to me. If we assume there was fraud (and it’s a big if) labour would have won anyway.
However, we all know the importance of this election and its timing and Brown taking the gamble in visiting the constituency. There have been major problems with postal voting. There have been problems is scottish elections with fraud. Labour have a certain reputation north of the border. It does not take too much imagination to wonder if someone would try and commit fraud on some scale. And that there would be an attempt to cover it up.
345. as pointed out above, postal voting has separate records so is highly unlikely to be relevant
338. “all the evidence suggests that the SNP are at least as likely to have perpetrated any fraud”
Eh?
Can you point out for my benefit ANY evidence to support that statement please?
338. I am not accusing Labour or any other Party, Ed. The point I am making is that people have a right to be hot under the collar about possible election fraud (by whichever Party) regardless of whether or not it affected the end result.
287 - You seem a bit confused.
Last week you made a fool of yourself claiming that EU immigrants generally do better than Asian or African. An anecdote that didn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Now you’re wibbling about
“But then, today, Tim just came right out and said he would blatantly favour a certain kind of migrant (Ugandan Asians) cause they were “high achievers” who “outperformed” other ethnic groups - namely Brits, Jamaicans, Guyanans, (almost everyone, it seems).”
What I argued was that the British Government should have accepted all Ugandan Asians with British passports, and that, as this group have outperformed economically other groups of British passport holders from whatever origin, the decision not to, cost this country economically.
Looking at how diferent groups of immigrants perform economically is rarely a dscussion solely about race, and particularly in this case Ugandan Asians of Indian origins outperform people who came directly from India.
How this historical view morphs into “Tim just came right out and said he would blatantly favour a certain kind of migrant (Ugandan Asians)” is difficult to see.
Leaving aside the fact that there are few Ugandan Asians left in Africa for me to “favour” its a nonsense to imply that past performance of one particular group should govern immigration policy towards other unrelated groups.
Perhaps, if I explain it like this Sean it will help you out.
Britain was correct to accept Hugenot as refugees into Britain.
Hugenots outperformed native Britains economically within two generations.
This does not, I repeat, not, mean that I now favour Hugenot immigrants over all other immigrants.
I do not believe that Hugenots are a defined race to be favoured above other groups within Britain.
Understand?
PS.
The David Irving reference was s a reference to racists or anti semites who use their children as anti semitic and/or racist props, and had nothing to to with the immigration issue.
349 - Huguenot,Huguenot,Huguenot.
347. the local council is controlled by the SNP. and the SNP gained significant vote share from 2005. and no, i don’t think this makes them fraudsters either. i am simply pointing out that they had more of a hand in the process than the Lab party did, so are at least as likely to be guilty of fraud.
348. fair enough but this thread in general has been highly partisan and that reduces its credibility significantly.
350 Keep digging your hole bigot.
306 - As I’ve pointed out Its impossible to argue now for preferential treatment for Ugandan Asians, as it is for Huguenots.
And as you learnt last week, the three most successful groups of immigrants now are Buddhist,Muslim,Christian,Dark Brown,light brown and white.
351. See above. Council control is irrelevant to “who might have had a hand in the process”, and larger vote share was the expected result. Sorry, not convinced.
197. The other thing that should be remembered alongside the economic incentives is cultural and social incentives. A runner in Britain isn’t showered with the praise and social standing that a runner in Jamaica is. There’s also a lot of positive stereotyping in western athletics. If you’re a coach and you’ve got equally good white and black runners but only one spot who are you going to go for?
I’ve heard the fast twitch muscle thing many a time in pubs and I’m not ideologically opposed to believing it but I’ve never been able to source it. So these are just some of the alternative hypotheses.
351. I don’t think you have a clue, really, do you Ed?
Ming Campbell had a ‘fast twitch muscle thing’ but we dopn’yt mention that !
Or……we don’t mention that.Ooops and double oops.That was my fast twitch muscle thing.
I always found it strange that after 1997 Labour didn’t lose a seat in a by-election till (I think) 2003 - something almost unheard of for a governing party. Now we know why! The majority of those elections must have been fixed!
359. Stop spoofing now.
354. “who controls the council” is at least as relevant as “who is the council opposition”, surely.
361. Not at all. It is not the elected councillors who run the election, it is the unelected officials. There is no obvious way of determining any party allegiance they might hold, other than perhaps to assume based on the outcome of elections previously that statistically in that part of the country they would be more likely to support Labour. The makeup of the elected body has no bearing at all on the process or the “hands”.
355. here’s one example
http://caribbean.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0043-31442006000300015&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en
362. i take your point, although they are ultimately accountable to the democratically elected council.
260: ‘Stop spoofing now.’
Spoofing? I think there are questions to be asked. Even when she went on to win massive GE landslides, Margaret Thatcher was losing safe seats in by-elections - nothing odd about that, voters always use by-elections as a stick to beat the powers that be. But why did this tradition suddenly stop when Labour got in? Were they such a wonderful government that people flocked joyously to the polling booths to give them the thumbs up every time? Sorry I don’t buy, especially when you consider that Labour always got hammered as normal in the local and European elections. All very odd if you ask me.
365 - A fair point. I think the evidence is that you are probably not spoofing. Rather more worringly you seem to believe what you post. Still, I’m sure you have access to the care you require.
IIRC it was common knowledge at the time of the by-election that the local Labour “election machine” was virtually non-existent, that previous canvass data was so patchy as to be invisible and “a heavy mob” had to be imported (perhaps Nick could confirm this).
If this is correct, the absence of any previous canvass info and any “local knowledge” would make any organised fraud operation impossible.
Ballot stuffing would be possible but to be undetected would have to be small-scale and require a conspiracy between several Council Officers (and it is an SNP-run council, remember).
So it looks overwhemingly like cock-up rather than conspiracy - it seems much more feasible for the whole election bundle to have been mislaid or inadvertently destroyed, precisely because no-one in the Justice machinery attaches much importance to it.
BUT, as we all know on PB, conspiracy is much more exciting, much more likely to be aired on the media (with its usual lazy ignorance) and much more believed as an article of faith.
367. exactly my point. SNP fraud is far more feasible, but still unlikely in the scheme of things.
367. Once again, “Council Officers” and “SNP led” are NOT related. Most of the officers are likely to have been in post for several years, and they are statistically more likely to be Labour supporters. They are not political appointees.
I agree cock-up is more likely than conspiracy, but I am still not seeing any credible evidence to support an assertion that the SNP were more likely to have done so than Labour.
This is a worrying story and given the utter shambles that the last Scottish election was, Stuart Dickson has previously posted about shenanigans over the Cunninghame North constituency count and the Highlands and Islands regional declaration, and Scottish Labour’s past record of dodgy tactics I can understand why the SNP may feel a bit paranoid as to the implications of this disclosure. However, these things do tend to be cock up rather than conspiracy and given this government’s recent record of incompetence I can’t believe they’d be able to rig an election!
If the SNP wanted to take this further, I take it they would have to go to an election court? Even if they were right they could suffer the same fate as Gerry Malone in that people would just see them as sore losers. Maybe it just might be best to wait for the GE and take their revenge then!
364. Accountable to the council. Ok, for those things that the Council control, rubbish collection, sewers, etc. the officials are expected to follow the political priorities of the council and spend according to their budgets and so on. When it comes to elections, the council has no say. It does not set the date, or the rules, procedures and standards. Nor can the councillors tell the officials to rig the ballot one way or another.
So, SNP vote rigging in “SNP led council” is just nonsense.
Labour vote rigging in “must win by-election” with an unexpectedly large majority, and subsequent misplacement of key documentary evidence, has at least an air of plausibility, especially given their previous documented form.
This all sounds too suspicious, I wish Labour would shuffle off the stage. Bye Bye you untrustworthy lowlifes. My family have voted for your party since its beginning and now we have all turned against you. You turned your back on local workers, turned your back on the poor and are not even a socialist party anymore. You never imporved public transport, never eradicated the lords and now your self serving filth are corrupting the laws. And I won’t be surprised if you have changed the result in Scotland. SO what if people want SNP in, its a democracy! Its the will of the people! Or is it Broonie?
2010 is too long a wait. I don’t want to be brainwashed again like 97. Labour out! Labour Out! Wheres characters like Aneurin Bevan gone
I was out campaigning in Glenrothes for the SNP. Although the size of the Labour victory was a surprise the mood was completely different from Glasgow East. The activists were not confident of victory and I half expected the SNP to lose. There was just no ‘buzz’.
Still wouldn’t put it past Labour rigging some votes though.
for the record Fife Council is not an SNP council but a joint LibDem/SNP coalition.
336 Mark. I think somewhere it has been said that a Councillor handed over the Registers AND GOT A RECEIPT FOR THEM.
342 Neil For the conspiracy theorists of course (and Mike’s stats).
327. What a fraud, do you think we are stupid, you are an obvious plant, get a life.
344. Another labour plant spotting rubbish.
If you’re looking for a more plausible conspiracy theory (and we all love a good conspiracy ;-))how about a rogue Council Officer “losing” the election envelope to either (a) bring the Council into disrepute (and hence the SNP) or (b) to raise suspicions of an electoral fraud and hence smear Labour ?
Fascinating thread.
There will have been some electoral fraud on a disorganised very minor scale but the summation effect in an election could rarely be more than 2% of votes cast so in this case 500 or 600 at the very most.
No-one has pointed out that 7,000 would have had a marked effect on the turnout.
Now, for the real scandal and a possible reason for some parts of the marked register to vanish. In very busy polling stations the clerks just can’t keep up with the striking through. One clerk checks the polling card and another issues the ballot paper using the electoral number on the polling clerk WITHOUT checking against the register. This is highly unlawful but it happens all the time, not in my ward I hasten to add. They then leave a list of numbers to strike off by the third register holding clerk. But for what ever reason the striking off never happens. Far fetched you say. No, it has happened in a friend’s ward. We know this because people who entered the station and were marked by the tellers of both parties and who did definitely vote were never struck through on the marked register and I am talking excess of 100 out of 650 votes cast.
This never emerged because the strike throughs were never added up. There would have been hell to pay if they had been but we, as a party buy copies of marked registers, it is pretty well standard practice and they were way out compared with who we know voted.
To suggest there could have been electoral fraud on this scale is to pre-suppose a degree of organisational competence on behalf of the Scottish Labour Party which not even Alistair Campbell would claim.
But, to have lost an ENTIRE set of marked registers beggars belief in itself. Typically a register has about 50 names for one side A4, often less, so we are talking 1 sheet per 100 voters or perhaps 500 sheets of A4 for a typical register, probably more. added to which it is divided into polling districts and each district has a cover sheet and an incomplete end sheet and there are generally 50 polling districts in a constituency so that adds another 100 at least.
I would be looking for a box which has had five reams of paper in it with some felt pen markings on the side.
There won’t be a re-run. Even if fraud is deduced it has to have been on such a scale as to put the result into genuine doubt FROM THE FRAUD DETECTED. Thus, there was a rerun in Winchester where the difference was 2, here it is more than 2. And no, I’m not a Labour voter any more than Neil.
LAST ???
it not something you can misplace - however we will never know and it always be a mystery. What if…..
379. If it was a sole “rogue Council Officer”, it’s not a conspiracy!
1. It was a surprise result, at the time most people thought it would be close or an SNP victory. The SNP were certain they had won.
2. It is very very rare for a sitting government to increase its vote at a by-election.
3. There where an unusually large number of votes cast in this election, which is also rare.
4. The evidence that would have told us if there were any vote factories disappeared very soon after the count, also very rare. Then those responsible stalled over admitting it.
5. Labour have form when it comes to vote factories.
It stinks. There were three very rare events occurring at the same time and an improbable result, a result that the notoriously risk averse Gordon Brown was willing to stake his personal reputation on. If this was horse racing we would be looking for the guy with the ketamine sugar lumps.
With the size of Labour’s eventual majority they might have won it without the need for fraud, and if it was fraud then it has been covered up by now so we will never know. But as Nixon found out it is the cover up that kills you. Hopefully the SNP and the scottish media at least (forget about the BBC) will keep digging on this.
Wouldn’t surprise me if there was a bit of fraud going on, it wouldn’t exactly be a novelty. At the time, Labour thought it was lost and would have happily spun a narrow defeat as progress. If there was anything dodgy, a good guess would be that a load of postal votes and some on the day ballots were conjured up, enough to make any loss “close”, but then a swing away from SNP at last moment made the win possible, and the “extra” votes made it (too) safe. I know for a fact that no-one at the count, or who had been on the ground during the day thought that result was possible at 10pm on election night.
383. The FBI were behind Watergate and had decided to fell Nixon, not two young journalists. I don’t see any arm of the British state acting independently of Brown. All are operating as one, penetrated by Common Purpose to dismantle the British state. I’ve been writing on here about vote fraud for a while now and was treated as a bit of a joke for doing so. People need to wise up to what has happened in Britain. Mike Smithson has cottoned on at last (I think). It is is his duty to keep looking and talking about what is going on.
Oh, dear - OGH is now a marked man
The fact that some people on this site think it not all that important that the marked register went missing but still like to have a punt on elections is an interesting phenomena that will interest scientists for years!