Labour slip back in C4 YouGov marginals poll
February 4th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 43% (nc)
LABOUR 36% (-2)
LIB DEMS 13% (+1)
But are these seats so different from the norm?
The figures above are taken Channel 4’s unique marginals poll and is the third of a series that has been commissioned by the channel. The changes shown are on the last such survey published in October after the bail-out bounce.
Fieldwork finished yesterday and the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seats where Labour’s majority (on the new boundaries) was 6-14% over the Conservatives. LS on the previous thread calculated that at the last election the shares in these seats would have been CON 34%: LAB 44%: LD 16% - so all swings need to be based on those numbers.
By my calculation the swing from Labour to the Tories in the marginals poll is slightly higher than in the last standard YouGov survey - but still within the margins of error. So although it supports the idea it doesn’t provide clear-cut evidence that the marginals are behaving differently.
My guess is that as we get closer to the election then the difference between Channel 4 News 60 and standard YouGov polls will increase. Voters become more aware of the situation in their specific seats and, of course, campaigning levels will be a lot higher.
Whatever the poll provides further evidence that the Tories could get a very big majority.
The only slight problem for Cameron is that those polled preferred Ken Clarke to George Osborne as Chancellor by 39% to 15%. The split amongst Lib Dem voters was Clarke 47% - Osborne 9%.
UPDATE: YouGov’s Peter Kellner has since advised me that the baseline percentages in the seats they polled were: Lab 44: Con 33: LD 17: OTH 6. This is slightly different from the figures above and suggests that the Tories might be doing better in the marginals than my initial conclusion.
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First, innit.
1st?
First!!!!!
???????
First?
Prvi
First?
First
Damn
15th?!?
And second.
Can we stop with the Firsts now? And forever?
Ha ha! You’ve got to be quick to be quicker than moi.
“the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seas”
Mostly the Dead Sea as far as Labour are concerned!
“Can we stop with the Firsts now? And forever?”
Agreed!
Gordon back on his ‘reals’ and ‘now’
How many times will we hear ‘do nothing’ today? I’m betting 9
1-7. Yawn. enuf already. Another great poll for the Tories.
3 Memo to self: less exhuberence in the punctuation, if you want to be a winner round here….
I don’t think these seats are very different from the norm. People want rid of labour and the voters in these seats are probably aware that they are the ones to do it, but that won’t stop the residents of Bootle and elsewhere turning out in their droves to vote anything but Labour.
re 15. What a great idea for a betting market - how about it Shadsy?
11 the only Sean T post I have ever fully agreed with. Mike, please call to this stupid thing.
You’re just cheesed off cause it wasn’t you Thomas.
Incidentally I’ve just read your “Women” book and I can remember your poem about Elizabeth. I had the same book as a kid. Was it the one with the Constantine the Fantastic story in it? Or the bloke who gets to be a witch for a night? Or the kid who tries to find the end of the rainbow with a doll in a basket of peas? Or the lollipop lady who gets run over?
What does it mean in terms of the 60 seats. How many would labour lose>?
It looks a bit as if Brown has managed what Thatcher never could.
The end of the Labour Party.
great game, lads.
Why is Cameron leading on protectionism?
Perhaps somebody can help me here. I have this conviction that the Tories will do better than ‘average’ in the marginals, but I can’t really put my finger on why.
Any suggestions?
The poll gives some modest support to the idea but not as much as I had expected.
Btw, the Clarke/Osborne thing is inconsequential. KC will not replace him. His poll advantage is due to name recognition and to be fair, he has always been a popular politician.
25. to build up to bj4bw
Maybe the changes in these seats from the last election are not very different from the country as a whole, but the figures are striking nonetheless. On that swing, I believe I’m right in saying we are well into the territory where seats like Birmingham Selly Oak would fall.
oh dear that is pathetic
pathetic! can anyone here say you are an idiot!
the man can never admit a mistake
@25:
BJ4BW?
oh dear. cameron gives gb the withering glance that was so richly deserved
Oh dear, Brown can’t admit using ‘BJ4BW’ was wrong. Pathetic
1st Do Nothing though
do nothing x1
*** DO NOTHING ***
stutter is back stress in the voice
Brown doing better than usual
add taking people for fools to the betting market
21. Remarkable memory - better than mine. I can’t remember what was in the book apart from my poem. Even when I was four I was a terrible egotist.
Tsk!
But ta for reading the memoir. Hope you enjoyed.
Back ON topic, I’m a bit knacked from thriller-writing and awaiting my first G&T, can someone sharper tell me what this poll means for overall expectations? What’s the sort of UNS we could anticipate in a GE, on this basis?
Cameron is being House of Commons-clever but electorate-stupid.
Most people support BJ4BW.
Given that Labour have been reverting to a core vote strategy I find it hard to believe that they are doing better in the marginals than nationally.
40 - But it is ILLEGAL. Most swing voters are not that stupid.
Nice one with MacShane
Another do nothing
43 yes mike great bitchslap
41 - Remember, these are all Labour-held seats. It is still pretty damning they are that far behind in seats they currently hold.
This doesn’t seem to be a particularly great line of questioning by Cameron to me…
43. For someone supposedly unable to think on his feet it was rather good.
42 - but most people think that it’s an unjust law.
40 - But it is illegal. People are on the whole aware of that. So they might wonder why Brown made those comments in the first place when he can’t secure British Jobs for British People.
Someone’s shot a few volts through Gordon. Hasn’t been this lively in a while.
26 PtP - I have this conviction that the Tories will do better than ‘average’ in the marginals, but I can’t really put my finger on why.
Well, partly the effort and money which the Conservative Party have allocated to these seats.
That should have some effect, but realistically not much - maybe a percentage point or two at most? Well worth doing at the margin, but it now looks as though the margin (the ‘firewall’ seats) will be different from where everyone expected to be when the strategy was originally defined. It would be very hard now to figure out which seats are worth special effort.
I suppose the other argument is that electors in those seats will be aware they are marginal and change their voting accordingly. I can see that happening in terms of tactical voting, but it seems a bit of a stretch to push it further (”I’m in a marginal seat so I’ll switch my vote from Labour to Conservative”).
48. that was blatantly pre-prepared
39 Betting markets unmoved, SeanT.
It’s probably moderately good for the Tories if only because it confirms recent trends.
Probably suggests a decent working majority - say 40 seats or so. Not in itslef conclusive or overwhelming but generally blue-friendly.
Excitement over. Go and enjoy your drink.
I’m off to scrape ice off the car.
53
really, did he ask Mcshane to shart shouting.?
52 Thanks Richard.
That kind of suggests we are not (yet) in landslide territory.
“budget after budget” - you’ve got one left, d1ckhead
Brown totally on the ropes and rattled over BJ4BW, stuttering and waffling all over the place after Dave had lulled him into a false sense of security with some nice comfy opening questions that allowed him to do what he does best, bore for Britain.
In fact, Brown may have dug a bigger hole with his “who in this House doesn’t want to see British workers get British jobs” comment.
Brown now being helped out by Skinner in his answer to Clegg. A new low…
who wrote that silly article about a lib-lab coalition?!!!!!
And to think that 313 Labour MPs signed this guy’s nomination for leader. What does it say about their judgement?
49 - You want to leave the EU? Why is it an unjust law? Freedom of movement within the EU is a fundamental part of it.
55. Mcshane probably shouts more often than Brown says “do nothing”
56 PtP - I’m sure we’re not yet in landslide territory.
53. He had a word with the speaker did he?
60 - No comment required.
57 - ?
re 52. What happens in marginals is that turnout levels are usually much higher. Electors feel that there is much more point in voting. The amount of switching is much less than most people assume. This is about turnout.
63. No, I agree, not there yet, not by a long chalk. But the trend IS towards a Tory landslide.
Can Brown stop it?
The point is Brown by his headline slogan told a porky pie to the electorate - a big one - and it seems to me to be self evidently sensible for a leader of the opposition to point that out to the world at large.
65. gb going on about what he would do in budget after budget, unless i misheard
61 - would you extend the right to work in the UK to Bulgarians and Romanians? If so, you’d cause a riot in current economic conditions. If not, you have no fundamental principle.
The UK government should decide who has the right to work here, on a case-by-case basis.
70
“The UK government should decide who has the right to work here, on a case-by-case basis.”
Yes: and employ 5,000 extra civil servants to vet the 500,000 or so immigrants a year?
get real.
4 do nothings
PtP - The Tories will do better in the marginals due to tactical unwind - the anti-Tory voting that did for them in 1997 and 2001 (and to some extent in 2005) will become anti-Labour voting - those supportnig parties other than Lab or Con will be keener than they were to vote Con to get Labour out.
The picture will be muddied a bit by ‘churn’ between Lab and Lib Dem.
Brown ended up ranting and bellowing about Cameron “Talking Britain Down” one of Wilson’s famous accusations against his enemys in his final years in office.
Excellent poll for the Tories. Obviously an election this spring/summer is off the agenda. If Labour was going to have one in May or June, they would be having to make preperations by now. They won’t do that on these numbers. So we’re down to autumn 2009 or May 2010. I know which one my money would be on.
Interesting that all the Scots Nats are not in their places… Shows how serious things have been over the Scottish Budget..
70 - Once the whole EU does so, yes. There are many things I loathe about the EU, the anti-democratic institutions, the appalling appeasement of despots etc. But the fundamental freedom of people within it is something I support as a libertarian.
As for what the UK government should do, you are talking about things they CAN’T do.
The EU will not suddenly throw up borders between member states, to pretend otherwise is just Naive.
Talk of a landslide is very unhelpful, IMO.
The public mistrust landslide Governments, political parties in landslide territory become complacent about campaigning, and having a huge majority plays havoc with party discipline.
The public will want to be rid of Brown, to make absolutely certain this Administration is gone, dead, buried - cannot be resuscitated by the Lib Dems and is out of office for a long time, anyhting more than that will be a repeat of 1997 when Labour ended up with more seats than was good for them.
73 - I endorse this message
71 - “Yes: and employ 5,000 extra civil servants to vet the 500,000 or so immigrants a year?”
Just like these crazy, bureaucratic Aussies and Yanks do.
73 That makes sense. Thanks Cookie.
73-Bang on,Cookie !
Sean T- I continued the Cornish sex rap on the expired thread.
I do realise that an ‘expired’ thread is no place for a shallow attention seeker.
I thought Brown did well with his initial response on BJ4BW. I doubt we will hear about it at PMQ’s next week.
77 - We’ll end up with some proper numpties as Tory MPs elected by accident I guess, like we had with the 1997 intake. Peterborough should never have gone Labour :p
79 - Neither of whom are members of the EU…
Was it not Lord Mandy who pointed out that to win general elections you do not need a percentage swing, just about 20 thousand votes in a few specific marginals (or words to that effect)?
Mind you he also said that the day of representative politics was over - which is even more disturbing.
82.Depends if the strike continues or spreads. BJ4BW has the potential to haunt Brown every day from now until May 2010.
77 I’m not talking it up, Marcus, but I do think it’s a possibility, albeit a remote one at present.
76 - as a libertarian, you presumably oppose all restrictions? Turks? Chinese? Ukranians? Or is this a principle that only applies to the EU, an institution you claim to loathe?
74. On the one hand Britain is best placed to weather a recession, on the other hand George Osborne can talk down the pound. Does Brown not understand how daft this argument is? How strong can the UK economy be if Osborne can damage it with the mildest criticism?
70. Indeed they should - but they abdicated the right to make that decision some time ago.
That said, the decision not to impose restrictions on immigration from the accession countries now looks incredibly foolish.
And there is a great deal that could be done to restrict non-EU workers, e.g. a moritorium on new permits.
87l. libertarianism really is a mass of contradictory BS isn’t it.
73 Cookie - Yes, but tactical unwind (or new pro-Tory tactical voting, or simply higher relative pro-Tory turnout) might also extend beyond the marginals. To the extent that is true, we also have to remember that it may already be reflected in the opinion polls. It’s important not to double-count.
RE: PMQs That well known twerp of an MP, Butterfill, says he has never known a Govt minister refuse to answer a question. MPs all around including Conservatives near him look at him with amazement and some shout “where have you been”. Thank goodness he is standing down at the GE. Butterfill is known as Betterfillmypockets on account of his calls for MPs to be paid more.
90. Yes Ed, it is.
The current national polls are showing a swing of about 7.6%. Assuming LS’s calculations are correct, the swing in the marginals is about 8.6%.
However, this difference is within the margin of error of the polls, so we can’t say for certain there is a difference at all. This will almost always be the case. Any real difference in the marginals is likely to be small, and hence undetectable by the polls at the usual levels of statistical confidence.
If the 1% difference was real, we could expect the Tories to pick up about 15 more seats from Labour than UNS would forecast….
85 The refineries are still operating so we’re not seeing petrol or gas supplies running short. This will be all over soon. Interesting how the Beeb is focussing on Browns use of the word depression. Brown who I thought had done quite well today may well have dropped a serious clanger.
Wow, I’m completely cloth-eared… I totally missed the ‘depression’ reference.
90. all “isms” are generally
96. Me too, no other blog so far seems to have referred to it either
96 i didnt hear it either …
52. How much difference the parties’ targetted spending makes is open to question. For one thing, most parties will identify the same target seats i.e. Labour are looking to hold and the Conservatives to gain. Indeed, the fact that one side is targetting it almost inevitably means that the other will. You can easily then get into an attritional spending battle that has little net impact on the local contenders, though does tend to squeeze those parties who ‘can’t’ win (as the Lib Dems would put it).
We’re all deaf, I never heard it either.
91 - That’s true - but I would expect tactical unwind to be strongest in the marginals. Elsewhere voters hostile to Labour but unenthused by the Tories are more likely to stick with protest votes or not bother.
I think a similar patern in reverse happened in 1997.
Brown began better than usual, but Cameron tore him to shreds over BJ4BW. He can’t admit any fault, and looks dodgy as hell because of it.
Brown did, however, mock Clegg very well.
Oh dear Dolly has suspended Iain Dale from his bloglist. Dale is crestfallen
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Jowell was really floundering on Daily Politics
She had no answer for any economic question - she ended up stuttering more than her boss
An 8.6% swing from Lab to Conservatives since GE2005 is very significant. This is getting close to the 10% swing (from Conservatives) that Labour got in GE97.
I note that the Lib Dems are also 1/5th down on their GE2005 vote.
87 - I don’t loathe the EU I love the EU anti-democratic institutions. I want the Parliament to have a point for instance.
Pretty balanced comments on the poll. Just to disagree with Frank Booth’s point at 41 - it’s a myth that Labour is focusing on core votes. Nobody could describe Broxtowe as core vote territory, but I’m getting much more organisational support from the national party than at any previous election. In 1997 it was zilch since nobody expected us to have a chance. In 2001 it was moderately good. In 2005 it went back to near-zilch, as the party thought it’d be hard to hold (TB greeted me with some astonishment at the first PLP afterwards). At present, there’s lots. We’ve learned to be self-reliant, but the extra help is nice.
104, I was just about to post that. Someone should give him the Samaritans’ number. Maybe some wonderful morris dancing would stave off Dale’s powerful feelings of depression?
We desperately need Lib Dem marginals included in these polls, I suspect they will be the most interesting.
Brown’s stutter is making him sound like a political Gareth Gates.
re 57 be fair, we had three budgets last year (the usual one, the correction of 10p tax fiasco one, and the Autumn one), and will probabyl require several this year. I seem to remmember that Healey was having them practically every two months in the 1970s.
100 David Herdson - You are right, of course, but I believe the Conservatives have had more money to spend in these marginals. Add in the fact that morale and organisation are better than in 2005, and there might be a little relative movement compared with 2005. But I agree it’s unlikely to be very significant except in a few very closely-contested seats.
“The EU will not suddenly throw up borders between member states, to pretend otherwise is just Naive.”
There’s going to be vast numbers of officially unemployed on top of the already vast numbers of unofficially unemployed. Politicians will be forced to protect their own people first, despite how much they’d all prefer wage rates to be ground down to third world levels, else they won’t get elected. To pretend otherwise is naive.
108 - Nick, you’re saying that Labour HQ expected a 6% swing against you in 2005?? Hmmmm….
95
This whole so called strike will not cause any problems with either petrol supplies, (unless they blockade the refineries, which is illegal) and certainly not gas supplies.
For the umpteenth time these, ‘contract workers’ will not be involved in the actual process. Many of them are probably, ‘painters’ employed to paint the pipework, or too carry out non-essential maintenance. Most of them are probably involved in project work, installing new pipework, building future plant etc. So the worse thing that could happen is those projects would be delayed.
re 75 I thought very few of them had a dual role as MP and MSP. And surely Salmond’s got more votes than he knows what to do with.
108
So if the Labour leadership expected you to lose in 2005, you must already have that CV up to date…? Or are you like people with house prices - “well yes they have fallen but not my house.” i.e,. well yes there is a swing against Labour nationally but not in Broxtowe
Any swing voters watching PMQs must be anti-Brown now. What an odious slimeball.
i agree that the important poll would be of LD/Tory marginals.
There are about 10-15 important ones that could make a big difference to the GE outcome.
108 NickP - I think Frank was referring to policies and tone, not organisational effort.
On BJ4BW, a (admittedly self-selecting and unscientific) poll on LibDem Voice (right hand side, midway down, Home Page) has nearly a quarter who would open the borders and have no controls.
I can’t see that playing well along the Humber…
http://www.libdemvoice.org/
So….
Which seats would fall on this “8.6%” swing? All 56?
Which ones do people think *WOULDNT* fall on this swing for local reasons, or candidates, or something else etc?
Furthermore, how many above the 6%-14% would fall?
C’mon. Predict the next election. Answers now please!!
Daily Politics making big play that Gordo said Depression, rather than Recession. I missed it, was it a slip of the tongue, which No. 10 will be madly denying (like saved the world) or do people think he deliberately said it (and for what purpose)?
re 122 well given that they are those with a Lab majority of up to 14% then yes all of them, and quite a few more would fall on a 8.6% swing.
Gordon Brown’s “bailout bounce” is still unlikely to translate into victory in the next general election, according to an exclusive Channel 4 News/YouGov poll of key marginal constituencies released today.
The poll gives Labour a 36 per cent share of the vote - two points down from the 38 per cent they polled in October.
The Conservatives’ share remained steady at 43 per cent, increasing the Tory lead over Labour from five to seven points.
The Lib Dems’ rating went up by one point, from 12 to 13 per cent.
The next election could be a mirror of the last, said YouGov pollster Peter Kellner, with the Conservatives winning a majority of 60-70, compared with a Labour majority of 66 in 2005.
“That is a useful lead for the Tories, but with the next election possibly 15 months away, their lead is not yet enough for them to say ‘game over’,” he said. (See Kellner’s full analysis here.)
The research took place in the 60 constituencies where Labour achieved a majority of between 6 and 14 per cent in the 2005 general election. Though they are not the most marginal seats in the country, David Cameron must win over their voters if the Tories are to win a working majority in the House of Commons.
“That is a useful lead for the Tories, but with the next election possibly 15 months away, their lead is not yet enough for them to say ‘game over’”
Peter Kellner, YouGov pollsterIn October, in the aftermath of the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers and the UK’s government banking bailout, our poll gave Brown a massive “Churchillian” lead, but saw Cameron as top choice for PM after the next election.
In October, although 41 per cent of respondents said Brown was the better leader “right now in the middle of the economic crisis”, only 26 per cent chose him as the better PM after the next general election. Cameron was the choice of 27 per cent and 36 per cent respectively.
Today the gap between the two leaders has narrowed: 34 per cent picked Brown as the best crisis PM and 28 per cent picked Cameron. 27 per cent chose Brown as the best post-election PM, and 34 per cent plumped for Cameron.
Worryingly for Brown, 58 per cent of respondents think he is “refusing to acknowledge the full depth of the economic crisis”. However, a similar number - 53 per cent - think Cameron is “talking the economy down for political purposes and risks making things worse by damaging confidence”.
Sixty per cent agreed the Tories did “little or nothing to help the victims of the recession” in the 80s when unemployment climbed to three million. These respondents were divided over whether a Cameron government would do more to help victims than Margaret Thatcher’s: 42 per cent thought Cameron would be kinder but 43 per cent disagreed.
There was one firm thumbs-up for Conservatives past: 39 per cent thought shadow business secretary Ken Clarke would be a better chancellor than current shadow chancellor George Osborne, the choice of just 15 per cent.
Well not much of a vote of confidence in GO!
re 123 I wonder what Hansard will make of it - a bit of slective editing perhaps if he really did say it? We’ll know in a few hours.
86. PtP. I don’t think a Tory landslide is unlikely. But current odds are not very tempting. Best odds you can get currently against Tories getting 375+ is 6/4 I think. My guess is 375-400 but it’s too narrow a band to bet on with confidence.
I think the value bet for a while has been Tory overall majority and this is where I have built up my betting position. My average position with Betfair on this market is 1.89. Last time I looked this was available at 1.58 = 58% chance or 4/7 in old money.
Whatever happens between now and the next General Election I think it is more than 60% likely we will have a Tory overall majority. Currently I suggest at least a 66% chance = 1.5 Betfair or 1/2 so I will probably go in again on this market.
108. Nice to see Labour are wasting money on hopeless seats.
116. The strikes are only important as a straw in the wind. The main thing about them is it shows one section of skilled workers are starting to realize what globalism and the EUSSR means when the chips are down and skilled men are important because they can self-organize and don’t need to rely on the union bosses or the Labour party who are pro-EUSSR and pro-globalization. So the strikes will matter a very great deal if they’re a spark, otherwise they won’t.
95. Yes, but we’re only at the start of this recession. Even if this particular dispute is resolved, there will undoubtedly be far more industrial unrest coming over the next year or two. As there will undoubtedly be riots and protests over the coming months. The row over BJ4BW is by no way close to being resolved and won’t really go away until the economy itself picks and jobs become more plentiful.
R4 News: Osborne saying that by using the term Depresssion, Gordon has undermined confidence in Britain.
Stiletto to the ribs, returned, with interest!
Disappointing poll for the tories.
I know many of you had pinned your hopes on the marginals being substantially better for the tories than the UNS. They’re not and with 15 months to go until the next GE, there’s no reason to believe that Labour cannot win a majority or at least force a NOM.
Overall I get a sense amongst people of a growing sense of anger towards Brown and Labour. If that feeling grows then June could be spectacularly bad for Labour with voters wanting to give Brown a kicking. Will the LDs also be squeezed out? If the LDs start May with only 16% in the national polls, they may find it difficult to get above 19%.
130. Work permits have been handed out at a rate of just under 100,000 per annum in recent years….
132. Keep dreaming.
108. Well it’s certainly something of a core vote startegy. I’m sure labour are trying to hold onto the marginals, but much of the message of late has not been directed at middle england. You only have to see the reaction ofthe Mail to see that. ‘War on middle class’ etc. Harsh, but that is the increasing perception.
Can I recommend Jonathan Freedland’s article from today’s Guardian. Sums up much of what is wrong with elements of the organised left.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/04/gaza-jewish-community
129 The strikes will only be damaging if they continue on an ad hoc basis over a period of time. We have no control over how bad other EU economies will fare so we have no idea how many foreign workers will come to the UK. An implosion of any EU economy will see 1000’s of workers heading overseas to look for work.
“Sixty per cent agreed the Tories did “little or nothing to help the victims of the recession” in the 80s when unemployment climbed to three million. These respondents were divided over whether a Cameron government would do more to help victims than Margaret Thatcher’s: 42 per cent thought Cameron would be kinder but 43 per cent disagreed.”
That 60% on the top line of that quote is why I think Labour got such a boost as the news about a big recession coming first hit. The 42% on the bottom line is why I think it was only a temporary boost. Just a theory.
Gabble’s favourite song is ‘Daydream Believer’.
132 Lord Haw Haw is back.
84. I realise some of the points here have already been covered but I will post this now I have written it.
David Roe you claim you are a libertarian. You seem to support the ‘free’ movement of Labour and no doubt the ‘free’ market. Indeed that is consistent.
However the EU restricts the movement of Labour from nations outside the EU? It protects itself from imports from Africa?
Are you telling us you support ‘free’ movement of labour or just the false concept of free movement within the EU?
Furthermore, can you confirm whether all EU states have the same minimum wage that obviously impacts the free movement of Labour? Do these countries have the same corporate and individual tax regimes that again influence the free movement of Labour?
Given the global nature of this recession. Surely those who believe in free movement of labour should be calling for the restrictions on movement of labour imposed by the EU be scrapped?
The reality is there is no such thing as ‘free’ movement (nor a ‘free’ market). It is just another convenient label invented and used by academics, those profiting from the status quo and politicians to rebuff the concerns of their voters.
Given that the EU uses protectionism when it suits them and denies the free movement of Labour, why should countries not use the same measures when there is a need (for whatever reason)to do so?
After all, as far as I know national Government are elected solely by those who hold citizenship of that country and those elected are elected supposedly to represent those within their country.
Now I accept the economic arguments for maintaining the status quo here and that potentially it is in this countries vested interests to maintain the status quo in this area, at this time. However, it should not be on grounds of some false politically constructed edifice that pretends to be something it is not.
In addition, if the electorate of this country decide that the so called ‘free market’ and ‘free trade’ are not for them then politicians better listen because if voters cannot find redress in their elected representatives they will seek redress elsewhere.
And please can we stop using all this bollocks about ‘free’ this and ‘free’ that because there a very few things in life that are free and none of them fall in the area of economics!
Regarding the fact that Nick P says he is getting more resouces leading into the next GE than happened last time. Could that be because Labour are defending 47 fewer seats than last time? If last time Labour were defending 150 and now it is down to 100 then Nick would get a 50% increase in resources.
130
There was a Tory MP and a Labour MP (on TV) discussing this situation, both seemed to be in broad agreement on the need to avoid protectionism. It also transpires that the Italian Company emplys more Britons in Italy than it does Italians in Britain: perhaps they should just swap.
122 Casino :
Well, here according to ukpolling report are the ‘firewall’ sets around 8.6% swing:
152. Chorley Swing required: 8 %
153. Harrogate and Knaresborough Swing required: 8.05 % [From LibDems]
154. Erewash Swing required: 8.1 %
155. Norfolk North Swing required: 8.15 % [From LibDems, Con 3rd place]
156. Norwich South Swing required: 8.15 %* [From 3rd place]
157. Sheffield Hallam Swing required: 8.15 % [From Lib Dems, Nick Clegg]
158. Luton North Swing required: 8.2 %
159. Sherwood Swing required: 8.2 %
160. Bristol East Swing required: 8.25 %
161. Edinburgh South West Swing required: 8.25 %
162. Bassetlaw Swing required: 8.25 %
163. Norwich North Swing required: 8.3 %
164. Dagenham and Rainham Swing required: 8.35 %
165. Crewe and Nantwich Swing required: 8.4 %
166. Gower Swing required: 8.5 %
167. Copeland Swing required: 8.75 %
168. Lewes Swing required: 8.8 % [From LibDems]
169. Blackpool South Swing required: 8.85 %
170. Bridgend Swing required: 8.9 %
171. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Swing required: 8.95 % [From LibDems]
172. Kingston and Surbiton Swing required: 9 % [From LibDems]
173. Ealing North Swing required: 9.05 %
174. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland Swing required: 9.2 %
175. Southampton Test Swing required: 9.3 %
176. Exeter Swing required: 9.35 %
177. Oxford East Swing required: 9.55 %* [From LibDems, Cons 3rd place]
178. Blackburn Swing required: 9.6 %
179. Harrow West Swing required: 9.65 %
I think we can discount the LibDem seats with strong incumbents (Lewes, Sheffield Hallam for example - sorry Martin Day!)
For the straight Lab/Con fights outside Scotland, my gut feeling is that it will all depend on the strength of the residual ‘hate Thatcher’ factor. For that reason, I’d tend to think that Welsh, North-East and North West seats will show a smaller than average swing. So maybe on this swing seats like Luton North and Dagenham and Rainham would go blue, but setas like Middlesbrough South and Cleveland would stay firmly Labour.
Just a guess - to do this properly, you’d need to look hard at individual seats.
96. Apparently Brown mentioned ‘getting the world out of depression’ early into PMQs, about 12:04. I can’t find a PMQ link at the mo to clarify.
well, i didnt think it was cameron’s best pmqs, but from the bbc1 news, it couldnt have gone better!!! It was as if todays news was directed by the conservative party!!! militant, bald guy shouting about BJ4BW, news reporter saying cameron asked brown to apologise for raising hopes and electioning, topped off with brown talking against protectionism!!! Furthermore, his depression slip allowed the tories to accuse the pm of talking down the economy!!! perfect start to the afternoon!
122. Assuming a 3.0% standard deviation of swing we would expect the Tories to win 48.5 out of the 56 seats in this range.
Assuming the 8.6% swing was maintained in the next tranch of seats the Tories would gain a further 26.6 seats with current Labour majorities beyond 14%….
127 StJohn
That’s pretty close to my own take.
Fyi, my main GE betting positions are big sells of Labour seats on the spreads at about 240 seats, and a big buy of NOM at good prices on Betfair. So, my best result is a Tory landslide; next best is Tory’s just fall short of an overall majority. A small overall Tory majority is a loser for me. Obviously a big Labour revival is bad for me but that’s not looking much of a threat.
It’s a high stakes games this. IMO we’re in for hte long all.
If (big IF) the govt can claim by the next election to have made a positive difference, it could be all to play for.
If they haven’t it will be a long night.
39. Enjoyed? I p1ssed myself laughing, especially when you w@nked yourelf into hospital.
I have a 3 and a 6 year old of my own and an unexpected side effect of fatherhood is an intensifying recall of very early childhood. I mean I’m remembering stuff I’d forgotten for over 40 years. It’s weird.
I do the reading bedtime stories malarkey and keep remembering stories I read then. Besides the one your poem featured in - I remembered the intro rubric about “he didn’t know he was writing, he just thought he was talking” - there was also one about some ghastly little brat who pigged a box of chocolate animals, and another about a bloke who had 15 minutes spare and people kept bumming minutes off him. His 15 minutes looked like a block of jelly. Could have been in the same anthology or another. No idea now.
I even looked up “Allsorts 4″ on Amazon but it ain’t there even second hand. The copy you alluded to in yer booky wook must be one of the last left…of interest to..er…you and me.
Incidentally, Thai girls? Phwooar. I’ve had one and she was beyond question the best girlfriend I have ever had, both in and out of the sack.
On topic: Broon is stuffed. End of.
144. I think he’ll find that it’s the world that needs to get Britain out of its depression. World economy isn’t going into a depression. We might.
124. But we know UNS doesn’t actually work like that in practice. The OP wanted to know how many might be saved, and the answer is 7 or 8 seats. See 146….
O/T..William Hill offer 10/1 that there will be no change in central bank base rate tomorrow. that strikes me as a very big price indeed.
145, didn’t see it, but nice to hear.
I thought after a decent start by Brown Cameron nailed him.
The funny thing is that immediately after Brown said BJ4BW loads of people, even on his own side, said it was stupid. Hardly opportunism then on Cameron’s part.
152 Thanks Graham. It’s probably a losing bet but it is indeed a very big price.
“Before the row erupted, Mr Cameron said: “Do you share my concern at the decision by the US House of Representatives to pass ‘buy American’ legislation and agree that a retreat into protectionism is the last thing the world needs.
“Yesterday your spokesman refused to confirm that he would specifically condemn these moves. Will you make clear your position today?”
Mr Brown said he had made clear over the last few months that “the biggest danger the world faces is a retreat into protectionism”.
This was all the more reason for signing the Doha agreement in the world trade talks.
“We should make sure that every country is analysed for what it is doing by the WTO to prevent protectionism.
“We should agree as a world on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of depression.”"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-rejects-apology-call-over-british-workers-slogan-1545680.html
144. I do hope we have a firewall market for the next GE, that will be very good fun, as the US one was (yes I won on that).
I also wonder whether we can have some markets on the euros? How low can Labour go, UKIP/BNP seats etc.?
151. And they would gain 13.8 seats beyond those requiring an 8.6% swing. However, they would fail in 16.3 seats requiring a swing of less than 8.6%, leaving a slight underperformance of about 2.5 seats net, versus crude UNS…
According to the fount of all knowledge:
Though there is no widely accepted definition for an economic depression, according to an article in The Economist, there are two rules of thumb found widely on the internet. One is a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, and the other is a recession lasting 3 or more years.
If Gordon Brown thinks either of those is true globally then Britain is going to be far worse affected than even the IMF claims.
152, I’d be tempted. Heard a bloke (Buick? stock market chappy) on Sky t’other day saying rates were so low there’s not point making them any lower. Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t be changed, but 10/1 are long odds considering we’re already at an all-time low.
BBC News: “Downing Street say that the PM doesn’t think the world in in a depression”
@159 (Morris Dancer)
In response to questions about quantitative easing, Darling has repeatedly said “I’m not going to get into hypotheticals because interest rates still have some way to fall before they hit zero” or words to that effect.
That pretty much guarantees a fall in rates.
152. The 14/1 on a 1% cut and 25/1 on more than 1% look excellent value as well, considering the last Fed move///////
159. a 0.5% cut is almost guaranteed. of course they always manage to find someone to disagree for the benefit of news bulletins (usually talking their own book)
this poll is terrible for the conservatives. that’s what labour list is telling me. it has to be a satirical site right?
160, has anybody told the Prime Minister he doesn’t think the world’s in a depression?
161, I’d forgotten about that.
160 perhaps its Gordo who is in a depression?
140 Libertarianism, as you know doubt realise, isn’t a rigid belief system with a creed laid down from on high, indeed how could it be. And given that most libertarians are on the right politically, there is a debate to be had about how appropriate the nation state is or whether you should be completely nationalist.
It’s hard to understand where you would start building a libertarian society in such a statist world, so you have to use it as general guidance in developing policy. Some seem relatively easy - adults should be freely able to smoke cannabis for example - but then the problems start. Do we need regulation, for example to stop people being killed by dodgy skunk (if that’s possible)? What is our attitude to children using it? Should people be able to import and export it, when that would go against a number of international treaties?
Free movement of labour is a difficult one, in that most people don’t want to have to move to a different country to find work. Some question of protectionism therefore seems inescapable. In addition, western countries (including the UK) for some reason offer welfare benefits to foreigners. The libertarian policy would of course be, you’re welcome to come here - but you support yourself and your family. I’m a bit of an internationalist for a libertarian (I thing it’s my Stoicism coming through)
and think that if groups of countries want to get together to create free internal markets where they are compatible, that’s a reasonable approach, but that countries do still need to set their own immigration policies. A country after all is (or should be) a members’ club for like-minded people.
Looks like Hills have withdraqwn their bank rate cut market.
168. hahaha I’m not surprised…
152, 159 The British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Index has just been published showing an increase in the annual rate of inflation to 1.1% from 0.5% in December. I will leave the more economically literate here to comment on whether that is significant and why it should have done so (discounting before Christmas rather than in the sales? Weak pound?). But could it mean that prices might start to rise again, thus making increases in interest rates possible? Inflation didn’t fall as much last month as predicted.
The deal on the table for the workers in Lindsey, if accepted, will set a dangerous precedent. It says a) companies can be brow beaten into taking British workers (when they clearly didn’t want to or legally have to) and b) if people unhappy simply start a strike and shout BJ4BW’s.
We either have free movement of labour across the EU or we don’t. We can’t have it some times and not others, a very dangerous path is starting to be trod given that another million people will be out of work in less than 12 months time.
Brown might be able to wiggle this time, and say look we the government did something, but he isn’t going to be able to do it again and again. Like the bank and car bail-out, there are now companies saying what about me. The same with workers, the precedent has been set that the government will bail you out and force companies to employ you.
167. i always wondered why some credible politicians claim “libertarian tendencies” but none ever claim to be fully libertarian. now i know
Just noticed the picture accompanying the previous thread - two grumpy Gordons.
Mike, was this a subtle coded hint to the outcome (Labour -2) of the YouGov poll
164. That LabourList site is a joke. A poll comes out showing the Conservatives well ahead in 60 Labour held seats and they claim it is terrible for us as Ken Clarke is well liked. Like the Labour Party, that site is very detached from reality.
171 Oracle - It would be presumably be illegal for the company to discriminate against an Italian worker who applied for one of the jobs allocated to British workers.
171. i don’t agree. i don’t think the EU has very much to do with this dispute, although they do need to sort out the relationship between trade union agreements and contradictory EU legislation.
once that is sorted out, i don’t think that many companies will want to bring people a long way to do something that can be done locally, as it will cost more (as well as being obviously ridiculous). and i also don’t think that economic emigration will increase significantly any time soon (the reverse has been happening, in fact).
172 I think it’s mostly so they can escape the “legalising drugs” question, which would mean that they would be hung out to dry by the Daily Mail.
167 Sorry, last word in first paragraph should fairly obviously be “internationalist”.
What a surprise, BBC headline leads with a Labour rebuttal over ‘depression’ comment. The BBC clearly no longer care about impartiality, what Labour says, goes.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7869748.stm
175. if the labour laws weren’t so ambiguous, the italian worker would discriminate against himself by being a terrible choice for the job. living thousands of miles away, not speaking english, etc.
using italians for this job does not pass the common sense test.
178 Listen to Simon Mayo on 5 live. His comments are appalling, I cant believe he is unbiased
The US economy turning the corner?
“Credit Crisis Watch: Some Positive Developments”
Includes a slight improvement for UK Credit Default Swaps (down from 136 to 126):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118369-credit-crisis-watch-some-positive-developments
“Indications that the Crisis Is Passing”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118403-indications-that-the-crisis-is-passing?source=article_lb_articles
“Good News Continues to Roll in”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118402-good-news-continues-to-roll-in?source=article_lb_articles
171. I’m sure you will find similar things going on in other EU countries - indeed I’m pretty certain there will be a great deal more of this kind of thing in certain ones.
Rosa Prince (not necessarily the most reliable reporter) has more on Brown Bounces Boris.
Apparently the original seating plan was for the three speakers (Brown, Cameron & Boris) to be seated together on front row. Tory sources say this was changed to bounce Boris back to sit between Sir Paul Stephenson and Simon Hughes and move Harriet Harman to sit between Cameron & Brown, presumably as Brown wanted a cordon sanitaire to seperate him from Cameron.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2009/02/04/boris_johnson_bumped_for_harriet_harman
“Keep Calm and Carry On”
Historical tips for how Gordon can get us through the Depression, perhaps?
“Your Courage, Your Cheerfulness, Your Resolution Will Bring Us Victory”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7869458.stm
176 But of course in the UK it’s completely legal to undercut Union rates, if as an employer you have the cullions to do it. There are equal pay laws, but market forces is a good defence “there’s a recession on and we no longer need to pay that much. We can’t cut the rates of existing staff, but there’s no reason why we should pay it to new hires”.
Sorry, we’re in a recession, those people in work are going to have to put up with zero pay rises and possibly short hours or no overtime, those looking for work are going to have to accept lower rates. Supply and demand.
178, “Labour party denies PM has any contact with reality” perhaps?
Or maybe: “PM not in control of brain or speech, says Labour”
Gordon has been proven right. There was no return to Boom and Bust. Oh no!
He had more ambition than that. He has replaced it with “Bubble and Depression”.
Or perhaps, “Bubble and Squeaky-bum Time”
DICK ARMEY* : “KEYNES VS. HAYEK”
*former majority leader of the House of Representatives in the USA
According to Nobel economist Fredrick Hayek,…Keynes “was guided by one central idea . . . that general employment was always positively correlated with the aggregate demand for consumer goods.” Keynes argued that government should intervene in the economy to maintain aggregate demand and full employment, with the goal of smoothing out business cycles. During recessions, he asserted, government should borrow money and spend it.
… Classical economists up to that time had emphasized a balanced budget and government restraint as the primary goals of fiscal policy. The simplistic notion that “aggregate demand” drove investment and employment threw all of that out the window, but it had one particular convenience for policy makers. Government spending is, according to Keynes’s construct, a key component in determining aggregate demand, so more spending, even to resod the Capitol Mall or distribute free contraception, drives the economy in the short run.
… James Buchanan, argues that the great flaw in Keynesianism is that it ignores the obvious, self-interested incentives of government actors implementing fiscal policy and creates intellectual cover for what would otherwise be viewed as self-serving and irresponsible behavior by politicians. It is also very difficult to turn off the spigot in better economic times, and Keynes blithely ignored the long-term effects of financing an expanded deficit.
… Hayek viewed the boom and bust of the business cycle as primarily a monetary phenomenon created by governments’ artificial inflation of money and credit.
Sound money policy, conversely, allowed the disparate knowledge of millions of economic actors to be conveyed through the price system, rationally allocating capital and labor through relative prices. The problem with government attempts to manipulate the economy through fiscal policy — spending that takes resources away from those who are productive and redistributes it to politically favored interests — is that it … assumes that government knows better how to spend and invest than individuals acting in their families’ best interest.
“The real question,” according to Hayek, “is not whether man is, or ought to be, guided by selfish motives but whether we can allow him to be guided in his actions by those immediate consequences which we can know and care for or whether he ought to be made to do what seems appropriate to somebody else who is supposed to possess a fuller comprehension of the significance of these actions to society as a whole.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123371237124446245.html#printMode
Libertarianism isn’t very good. For these reasons;
1) Very confused idea of liberty.
2) Completely ignores the controversial issue of how property relates to freedom.
3) Has an exceptionally narrow idea of what is valuable.
4) When taken to it’s logical conclusion would create a state that no one wanted to live in.
5) Fails to establish what constitutes coercion and what counts as ‘harm’.
178 Let the BBC ‘fiddle while Rome burns’. As the recession deepens they’re going to have to deal with a massive loss of revenue as the income from licensing falls. When it comes to a decision between food on the table or paying the TV tax, which comes first?
185. Indeed in these circumstances there is an excellent case for suspending the minimum wage as well…which anyway conflicts appallingly with the ‘liberal’ principles the government claims to be wedded to…
171 - I don’t doubt it. The obvious thing that goes on is for semi-skilled jobs to demand a certain qualification, which is only normally taken by people in a particular country.
The point I am making it about the impact here, not abroad of the government supported fudge.
From the replies to my comment it seems that people think I am some how against free movement of labour / EU, which isn’t my position at all. I was simply trying to set out the issues from the perspective of those striking and those that will be unemployed in the next 12 months and how this fudge will in my mind effect that.
26. “Perhaps somebody can help me here. I have this conviction that the Tories will do better than ‘average’ in the marginals, but I can’t really put my finger on why.
Any suggestions?
The poll gives some modest support to the idea but not as much as I had expected.
Btw, the Clarke/Osborne thing is inconsequential. KC will not replace him. His poll advantage is due to name recognition and to be fair, he has always been a popular politician.
by Peter the Punter February 4th, 2009 at 12:10 pm”
Peter, I think you maybe underestimating the extent to which some previously Lib Dem voters are seeing this differently. I have voted in over thirty public elections and have never once voted Conservative. In the words of the song ‘I’m reviewing the situation’. The return of Ken Clarke is symbolic to me. I accept that I am in no sense representative, however I thought it might be of interest. Previous tactical voters (Anti Conservative) are indeed ‘unwinding’. The numbers are probably very small but they maybe in interesting places from a seat/betting point of view.
Is Gabble John Prescott?
Imagine if we sent the trio of Brown, Boris and Prince Phillip everywhere together. World War III would break out within months all due to some “mis-spoken” words (as Hilary Clinton likes to say).
May I add my customary note of caution? A 2% swing back to Labour from this position would put us back in Hung Parliament territory. That’s only half the move we’ve seen to the Tories since before Christmas….
Peter Kellner is right. Tories should not start counting their chickens just yet…
196 ‘Is Gabble John Prescott?’
Surely Gobble would be a better pseudonym?
193. no there isn’t. especially as we are talking about skilled workers, not the minimum at all.
189 A good set of unsupported assertions there. Let’s have a bit more detail and some exemplars for why those are problems - and why they’re not problems with other political systems.
195 “Previous tactical voters (Anti Conservative) are indeed ‘unwinding’. The numbers are probably very small but they maybe in interesting places from a seat/betting point of view.”
Agreed. 100,000 voters at a general election would be hidden in the polls as statistical noise - but if they were largely in 50 constituencies, they could upset some applecarts! And they probably are, knowing in the past their impact was disproportionate in terms of having effect in marginal seats.
187. the fact remains that it would be cheaper to undercut union rates by new hiring of local people at lower rates. there is no need to pay a premium to bring people from another country.
the only conclusion to be drawn is that this was an attempt to sidestep the union rates by capitalising on the contradiction or confusion between EU freedom of movement and union agreement.
196 I doubt it. On Go4th, JP actually seems to show some sort of idea about what blogs are for and how you should post.
167. I’m in general agreement with your views. Indeed the argument around libertarianism is somewhat circular. How can someone be free to something but not free to do the total opposite?
In my way though, I consider myself a ‘libertarian’. However, unlike you I am anything but an internationalist in the political sense of the word. To me it is just empire building. There is no Utopian Star Trek type ‘Federation’ in our future, only the dark ages that follow the breakdown of these flawed, oversized and unmanageable groupings.
If you search history for it’s most chaotic times, it is in the aftermath of these groupings crumbling that chaos prevails. In my view it is best to avoid them at all costs and escape them at the earliest opportunity.
I agree with your last sentiment, indeed a country should be like that.
.
199 EdP What about Gribble?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gribble
199 - Maybe he just spelt it wrong….
205. Great post - the search for utopia invariably leads to dystopia.
206 Succint.
Labour has indeed ground to a
.
BIG STORY ALERT: DAVIS DEMANDS GOVT. STATEMENT ON GUANTANAMO TORTURE:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7870049.stm
208 In that case ‘Garble’ would have been better!
LIBERTY shall always be taught of as a pole in a bipolar field; the other one, of course, is SECURITY…
211 - Was that another mobile phone I heard hitting the wall of the war room! Second one today I reckon. After the Depression comment (which I would put money on the Daily Rant or the Daily Express going with it tomorrow) now this.
“Foreign labour row ‘deal reached’”
“Unions will recommend workers at Lindsey Oil Refinery in Lincolnshire go back to work, after an improved offer on use of foreign labour was proposed.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7868777.stm
211 Just as Gordon reaches agreement with the strikers, HMG lurches from frying pan to fire…
201. Well, I’m not sure how much time I’ve got but here’s a few issues.
The libertarian view of freedom amounts to “individuals being legally (or formally) not interfered with” which ignores economic, cultural and personal sources of interference as well as forms of freedom such as collective self determination and personal autonomy.
The libertarian values freedom alone. Not equality, fraternity, prosperity, peace, happiness, virtue and a hundred other things. I find this view narrow but this is a question of axiology.
Currently we are at a situation of property being distributed in a state R. R has been reached unfairly and unfreely. Even though a movement under a libertarian conditions would be free and consensual, we’re starting from an unfree position. To gain a free state we need to redistribute property.
There are multiple other issues but I’m short of time and lazy.
215 - They still have to vote on it, 7.30am tomorrow. Not sorted yet, although I would assume they will agree. Remember, the same union people told the strikers to get back to work straight away last week and the workers told them to stuff it where the sun doesn’t shine.
211 - Why leave that question to a flouncing backbencher?
216 Have they reached agreement with the strikers, or just the union? It’s a wildcat strike, surely it would have been better to negotiate with an ad hoc committee of the strikers, not the union.
219 Because DD is the liberties Tsar.
220 - The strikers are taking illegal action, so that wouldn’t make much sense.
They’re not in a position to sign an agreement on behalf of anyone.
215 Perhaps Gabble would like to share his views on the “special relationship” under Labour - the UK being complicit in torture to keep intelligence flowing?
Or is the clippings service a full time job?
As I said on a thread last night, wonder why Total would play ball. They are creating a load of new jobs on the government say so.
I’m sure it has nothing to do with the fact that Total has just started tendering for nuclear power station work around the world! Now remind me what country needs a load of new nuclear power stations in the near future and lacks the skills to achieve it?
211. Why can’t Gordon just shrug and say ’so’? Davis has no power or mandate to demand anything of Gordon.
221 - I thought he was the “I’ll scream and scream and scream until I make myself sick” Tsar.
Is Hayek considered a libertarian?
203.
Now whoa, just stop there.
You and many others are constructing castles of argument on sand here.
The contractor on this project (IREM) won the work on a competitive tender, partly because it had a PERMANENT workforce available and would not need to hire the short-term contract staff, except in support areas.
and “All IREM staff will be paid at the UK nationally agreed levels for the engineering construction industry under the same terms and conditions as agreed with the Unions for the existing contractor workforce.” (Press Statement)
The idea that this company was taking work away from local workers who otherwise could have had the jobs is risible. It has a short-term task at the refinery and brought its PERMANENT staff in to do the work. No doubt when it has another contract elsewhere these workers will follow the contract there with their employer.
Again, no-one will be taking a ‘local’s’ job.
226 No, he’s the “I’ll resign on a point of principle and ask the voters whether they agree” Tsar.
So, Tim - same question as I asked Gabble. Perhaps you will get round to it after you have replied to Mike about Gordon’s leaking…
223. Marquee Mark: “Perhaps Gabble would like to share his views on the “special relationship” under Labour - the UK being complicit in torture to keep intelligence flowing?”
It’s a bit difficult to comment given the small amount of information we have. What specifically are you accusing the government of doing?
Sorry 3rd mobile of the day,
Obama to meet Blair before Brown.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/americanpie/Post:9f93f87b-d299-47e8-88f5-ef8e73e09b64
“What specifically are you accusing the government of doing?”
I’m accusing you and tim of being professional propagandist gobash*tes.
Davis giving it loads of the Beeb. Sopel trying to spin it as you (Davis) is just saying this, no proof as of yet. Davis kills him, says he is directly quoting from the judgment of a Law Lord!
231 Buy Nokia!!
228. doesn’t stack up.
232. Didn’t Obama recently decide rendition would continue? Seems like he’s in favour of outsourcing in that area, at least…
231 - I was just walking across Berkeley Square and heard weird bellowing and shrieking noises coming from the direction of Whitehall. Now I know why.
How long before Davis’ ‘close friend’, Shami Chakrabarti, weighs in?
235 - Yes he did, although it wasn’t that widely reported and hidden away.
If it’s illegal, why negotiate at all?
As I believe that these people are contractors, not employees, I doubt very much that normal labour law applies. In any case, I’d like to see how it relates to wildcat action, as I understand that to call a strike a TU has to ballot its members and give notice to the employer. However is it illegal for an individual to withdraw their labour? I doubt it, although of course it’s a breach of contract and I doubt that there is any protection against dismissal. But then if these people are currently un-engaged contractors they’re hardly on strike and are not in danger of dismissal.
My point was: if this is a wildcat strike, the unions by definition do not represent the strikers. So why negotiate with them? The strikers are quite capable of representing themselves, and of electing an unofficial strike committee (which I suspect they have already done).
Labour Lord Peston’s boy infront of the old Labour dominated treasury select committee answering questions about his role in reporting the banking crisis.
“The British government is facing accusations of complicity in the torture of a UK resident detained at Guantanamo Bay.
Former shadow home secretary David Davis reportedly presented a ruling in the House of Commons moments ago showing Britain withheld evidence of Binyam Mohamed’s torture.
According to reports Mr Davis said the Bush administration said it would threaten intelligence cooperation with Britain if the details emerged, a position reportedly repeated since Barack Obama’s inauguration.”
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/politics/britain-complicit-in-guantanamo-bay-torture–$1266267.htm
238. Another blow for Obamaniacs..though I’m sure they are delighted by the appointment (actual or attempted!) of a horde of corrupt Clinton hangers-on…
237 - I do find Davis close “friends” an interesting mismatch. Shami do you want to come round to my other bff (best friend forever) Ali the Alki.
227 That’s an appalling statement to make. DD is an MP. It is his role to hold the Executive to account on our behalf. In general, a Goverment should attempt to answer all questions put to it by MPs.
227 That’s an appalling statement to make. DD is an MP. It is his role to hold the Executive to account on our behalf. In general, a Goverment should attempt to answer all questions put to it by MPs.
227 That’s an appalling statement to make. DD is an MP. It is his role to hold the Executive to account on our behalf. In general, a Goverment should attempt to answer all questions put to it by MPs.
230 Gabble, the charge - resulting from evidence in the High Court - is that the Govt. complied with a threat by the US Govt. to keep quiet about torture of British residents taken to Guantanmo - or have the intelligence pipeline turned off.
Do you think our residents are expendable?
From the Beeb:
“David Davis said a High Court ruling on Wednesday alleged a British resident held in the Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba had been tortured.
The ruling suggested the US threatened to withdraw intelligence help from the UK if details were released, Mr Davis claimed in the House of Commons.”
233. Imagine having to tell Brown about that.
O/T protectionism seems to be spreading
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4511451/China-outraged-after-India-bans-all-toy-imports.html
248 - If you’ve seen the movie Cloverfield, I imagine it would look something rather like that.
Davis on Mayo now on R5
234. What you mean is the facts don’t square with your prejudices. So you believe the latter.
247. If this involved nice blonde English lads from Devon or Norfolk I fancy the public at large would be far more concerned about it.
G. I realise you live in the virtual world of socialist utopian ecstacy. However let’s get to the core of your argument.
The libertarian values freedom alone.
Hah! just freedom you say….
Funny how the desire ‘to be free of restraints’ excludes one from being free to aspire to all the lesser aims you mention?
But let me deal with the best case scenarios for each the aspirations you identified
Equality is non-existent, no-one is ‘equal’
Fraternity is fleeting
Prosperity is relative
Peace is fleeting
Happiness is fleeting
Virtue is relative
The reality is that none of those aspirations are available unless freedom is provided. These things only exist if they are freely given, chosen or achieved. That is the paradox of socialism and the paradox of the Labour party and why I will never agree with such hypocrisy!
Another Nokia hits the wall (or is it a pc he lobs this time?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5660573.ece
” Ironically, the exchange ended with Mr Brown accusing the Tory leader of deliberately “talking Britain down”. ”
O/T thanks to all who recommended Tom Bower’s book on Gordon Brown - very interesting and slightly concening read
@231 (Oracle)
Is Obama going to limit Tony Blair’s pay?
I think Blair still has a multi-million pound consultancy gig with JP Morgan. Whilst they aren’t on the ‘emergency’ list where pay will be limited to $500000, Bear Stearns definitely was before they took it over with an emergency guarantee from the Fed, so the situation is a little murky.
Oops! 3 posts, haven’t got the hang of the touchpad yet. And it was aimed at G at 225. I will respond to your post on libertarianism (it was me who asked, after all) but I have to go and write a job application…
227 He’s more regarded as an economic liberal, although he does generally get more “political” than say Friedman. Although generally speaking there’s quite an overlap between economic liberalism and libertarianism.
237 - Is this your attempt to make the leap from “most annoying” to “most odious” poster on pb.com, Gabble? Put a sock in it old chap.
Peston squirming like crazy when asked how often he speaks and visits the treasury and who are his sources that allow his to break stories.
244. You’re probably right. David Davis can get in line behind Michael Meacher, Bob Spink and George Galloway. There’s nothing special about David Davis that means he gets priority.
Are you going to answer to my post at 217?
(O/T and one for SSI or S&S….but I see Obama has nominated New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg to be Commerce Secretary. I think the Governor is a Democrat, so does that mean the new appointed Senator will also be a Democrat? If so, wouldn’t that bring the party to the all-important 60 votes? Or does NH have a law that would mandate the Governor to appoint another Republican?)
247. Marquee Mark
Complied?
Could you point me to the part of the ruling which indicates that the UK’s non-disclosure of the details (if indeed they had the details) was connected to the US threat?
183. Gabble. The credit markets are calming - but they tend to be backward looking - at least when it comes to crises, and I dont think we are out of the woods yet. The good news is that if and when we deal with the next stage of the financial crisis, it does appear that real interest rates are dropping for those borrowers who have credit.
The one piece of real economy news that was included was about pending new home sales from the National Association of Realtors. It basically looks like it is bouncing around at a low level. Low levels of activity are consistent with continuing price falls, only when activity is rising back towards the 100 level would I expect to see a bottoming in the market.
http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/1acc0d804ce7023295b79763cd08651d/research__phs1208.pdf.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=1acc0d804ce7023295b79763cd08651d
Good that someone is making an effort to be positive, but no cigar.
246 ‘In general, a Goverment should attempt to answer all questions put to it by MPs.’
The current incumbents consider that to be unnecessary. A mere trifle. Look at their record, they’ve dragged their heels at every opportunity.
230, 247: I wonder whether this is something related to the Damian Green affair? We know that the Home Office claimed (rather weakly) that they knew of one breach of national security in the info passed to Green. How did they know? Green didn’t make anything security-related public, but if there was a court case, maybe it came out in that.
We also know that Mr Plod has been poking around e-mails between Damian Green and DD.
Put 2+2 together.
265. Oh clever, Richard. Very clever.
262 “Complied” is the charge being made. I’m sure we will know far more when the Foreign Secretary makes a statement to the House. Given how he has gone all soft on the War on Terror and that…
Davis has the sort of profile that, if the government doesn’t respond, could cause this story to become big. He seems to be featuring quite prominantly already.
If it isn’t denied then there will be a presumption that it is true.
254. Just because something is fleeting doesn’t mean that it’s worthless. Life is fleeting. And Virtue’s not relative. I agree that all those things I mention require freedom. But I place value on those other things as well as freedom.
While we recently saw many left-wing columnists predicting doom for the GOP for their opposition to the “stimulus” bill, we now have a stunning admission from a House Democrat (one of those who voted against the bill) that the White House encouraged him to vote against it!
“Rep. Jim Cooper, a conservative Democrat from Tennessee, told a liberal radio network on Monday that the Obama White House encouraged him to defy House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the $819 billion economic stimulus bill. “Well, I probably shouldn’t tell you this, but I actually got some quiet encouragement from the Obama folks for what I’m doing,” said Cooper, one of only 11 Democrats to vote against the economic stimulus plan that passed the House last week. “They know it’s a messy bill and they wanted a clean bill,” he said. “Now, I got in terrible trouble with our leadership because they don’t care what’s in the bill, they just want it to pass and they want it to be unanimous.”
Cooper, whose startling admission came on Liberadio, was one of about 55 House Democrats to sign a letter criticizing Pelosi for suspending debate and committee rules on the fiscal package, politico.com reported.
“They don’t mind the partisan fighting cause that’s what they are used to. In fact, they’re really good at it — and they’re a little bit worried about what a post-partisan future might look like,” Cooper said during the radio interview. “If members actually had to read the bills and figure out whether they are any good or not. We’re just told how to vote. We’re treated like mushrooms most of the time.”"
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/02/04/democrat-obama-team-encouraged-defiance-pelosi-stimulus/
254. all of those in the list would be reduced by the usual suspects of libertarianism. usually it is only dragged out to promote tax cuts (for the rich) and freedom of speech (for the obnoxious).
Interestng stuff regarding David Davis. But we shouldn’t really be surprised at this sort of thing after the Saudi/BAE systems business. And it’s about time we stood up to the Americans. I hope any holding of intelligence information on ther side would be met with an equal response from our own.
269. I did not say all of them were valueless. The concept of ‘equality’ as espoused by socialists is valueless because it denies freedom.
Other than that the aspirations all have value but only if predicated on freedom. The more freedom is restricted the less value the other aspirations have.
265 Give that man a (tin-foil wrapped) coconut!
227. Um. Not really, though his economics tend to be quoted in support of Libertarian ideals. Mostly the philosophical underpinnings of Libertarianism tend to come from the Karl Popper, Isiah Berlin wing. In my own personal Libertarian foundations I’d add Locke leavened with bits of Burke and Adam Smith. It tends to be a very personal philosophical system. Oh - and it should never be confused with the rantings of American back-woods nutters.
One of the fun/frustrating things about Libertarianism is that being so individual, it’s so widely based that it could never form the basis of say, a detailed party manifesto that all could agree with. About the only aspects that all would go along with is the smallest possible government that still allows the essentials of a state to function (police, justice system, defence), a belief that the economic and political inter-actions between people are in effect contracts that must be freely entered into if they are to be valid, and that the government must obtain the approval of the people for legislation.
Obviously a lot more to it than that, but with other aspects of governance, it becomes a question of degree, with views spreading right across the spectrum of possibilities.
Oh dear, they must be running out of mobile at No.10 by now,
Brown admits world in ‘depression’
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090204/wl_uk_afp/financeeconomybritainbrowntradewtodepression_20090204140040
267
I think we can expect a stiffening of banaman’s resolve now that he has met ‘Mummy’
On the swing issue Bridgend should just stay Labour but it will be too close to call. Although there are factors which could easily see it gained by the Tories as it was in 1983 when the seat was first fought. The sitting Labour MP hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since 2005. To make matters worse the Labour Party as a cmapaigning machine in the Bridgend constituency is on its last legs. In 2008 Labour also regained control of the Council and has just announced a 4.9% council tax increase and cuts in services. It is also being criticised for the closure of a well loved home in a traditional Labour stronghold. The regeneration of Porthcawl where the MP lives is also running into the sand and this could motivate voters to vote against Labour. If Brown waits until June 2010 the Labour controlled Council wil have set another budget which will be much worse than this year’s. Given these local factors I would guess that if enough former Labour voters move not just to the Tories but perhaps more importantly to the Liberal Democrats as they did in 1983 to the SDP then Labour will lose this seat.
@276 (Oracle)
The depression story is spreading fast
http://news.google.co.uk/news?q=brown+depression
276
Cheaper to put Brown in a rubber room.
Rod - thanks for the feedback.
272 Do they not rely on the UK for intelligence on their own citizens? I believe there are laws prohibiting direct spying on the communications of individuals in the US by local agencies so they get round the problem by asking the spooks here to do it for them.
Off topic: Libertas
http://tinyurl.com/db8e8e
Surprised to read that former LD Lord David Alton is now a cross bencher who is backing Libertas.
[228] - I can understand why the locals feel like they have had their teeth kicked in though. They’ve had a generation of politicians telling them to accept temporary contracts - with all the disadvantages that brings them in terms of job security, pensions, etc - on the basis that it will make it easier to compete. Now a foreign firm, those supposedly uncompetitive continental Europeans, have won a contract in Britain on the basis that they had a permanent workforce. It’s no wonder they feel betrayed and lied to.
276- Does this mean that it’s okay for the BBC to start calling it a depression?
Also, doesn’t this sort of gloomy rhetoric from Brown himself effectively cut off criticism that the Tories have been talking down the economy through their dire predictions?
261: I believe part of the deal was the NH governor would appoint another Republican.
Davis is on Sky
283. I see that story references that champion of democracy Mr.Andrew Duff, he of ‘If the English can be defeated’ fame…also a Lib Dem…
Sky: Davis admits he has no evidence of UK complicity in torture.
The Times going with the D word too
“Gordon Brown suggests world heading for a ‘depression’”
The press sound like they are going to be all over this.
285, Brown made that very (predictable) charge at today’s PMQs.
Poor Gordon.
261- Andrew at post 286 is correct. Gregg said he’d accept the Commerce position only as part of a deal with Gov. Lynch that the seat would be kept Republican. The deal calls for Lynch to appoint one of Gregg’s former top congressional aides, Bonnie Newman.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18364.html
It’s not quite as black and white as Davis is portraying.
Frank Gardner, on the BBC, says that the US do not want their intelligence information released to the public - a reasonable request on the face of it. If they are released, this may affect the willingness of the US to share their intelligence information with the UK in the future.
289.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7870049.stm
BBC quote from above article:
Mr Davis said a High Court ruling, which pointed to complicity by the UK and US authorities in his torture, was prevented from being published after the US put pressure on the UK.
291
“there seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today”
284. Why? For the most part, construction work is a life of short-term, temporary contracts. That’s just the way it is…all over the world.
Execept in specialist work where the contractor can be confident in his ability to secure sequential contracts that allow him to hire a full-term permanent workforce.
By definition, the specialist work for Total on Humberside was always likely to go to such a sub-contractor.
IREM has PERMANENT British employees. They just happen to be working at the moment on a gassification plant contract …..in Italy.
Not a good start from the new England captain..
Libertarianism is simply a philsophy which seeks to maximise personal and economic freedom.
It is by no means a panacea, but it is a markedly less silly philsophy than “egalitarianism” - which has no basis in either fact, or reality, and has universely failed.
It is predicated on the belief that sensible individuals will ‘generally’ make sensible decisions best suited for both themselves and wider society.
It is not the same as “anarcho-capitalism” which a lot of people seem to be confusing it for on this thread.
Personally, I think it needs ameliorating with a strong civil society and values framework, which is why I’m a Conservative, but it does have much to commend it.
Fundamentally, it is more democratic as it results in society being shaped by the aggregrate economic and personal decisions of all to achieve a collective result shaped by it’s people; not bureaucrats or politicians.
It allows more innovation and creativity. It allows more experimentation. It allows more flexibility. It ensures faster progress. Also, as the law of averages dictates, it prevents bad decisions made by a few from affecting us all.
It believes in *trusting* people to make the right decisions and respecting their wishes and accepting that none of us really have the “answer” to anything and are arrogant and naive if we believe we do and that we have the right to enforce it on others.
In other words, why the all-seeing, all-controlling, nanny-knows-best lefties hate it.
293. we’ve been through this. i thought it was established FACT that you must be either for Davis or against liberty. isn’t it?
298 Does Libertarianism make the sun shine and the birds sing? What a load of old guff.
83. Having worked with a fair number of PPCs over the past year, a large proportion shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near Parliament. Hopeless and anxious creatures. Prone to sulking.
300. It sounds almost as naively utopian as socialism, doesn’t it?
294 Concerned Citizen (and further to my 265):
From that article: Last August, Lord Justice Thomas said that evidence relating to the case should be disclosed, saying it was “essential”.
However, the British government argued that the disclosure of certain material would cause “significant damage to national security of the United Kingdom”.
Now, if you were a whistleblower in the Home Office, and you came across info about this, might you feel it appropriate to pass it to your friend Mr Green?
It would explain why the government were so paranoid about the mole, and why we have never had a coherent explanation for Greengate - which simply made no sense previously. Faced with a disclosure which (a) would damage relations with the US, and (b) would indicate that the UK government had been covering up torture, you can see how Greengate might have happened.
Just speculation, of course.
298. I fully agree but I would not diminish the potentially ominous outcomes of ‘egalitarianism’ by calling it simply ’silly’. It is suffocating, damaging and at times downright dangerous in it’s complete disregard for reality.
302. possibly even more so, if that is possible
There’s no such thing as Libertarianism - it’s just an excuse for bad manners and paedophilia.
303 And all of that happens without Gordon or Jacqui knowing that Green was going to be arrested? Mmmmmmmmmmmm……………
Some tangled-web weaving going on here, it seems…
303. I really think you have solved the mystery here Richard. But I still wonder whether the public will be particularly bothered at what has been happening to these individuals in Guantanomo,,,,
300. Of course. I forgot all egalitarians think they know how to make the sun shine.
304 Then again Egalitarianism is the basis of some of the best of our society. E.g.
We all accept 1 person 1 vote as the basis of our democracy. Your vote counts the same as anyone else’s.
If you arrive scraped of the road at a hospital, they don’t check what you earn or who you are before they save your life.
You get a fair trial if you break the law, whoever you are.
Of course it can be taken too far, like ALL “isms”, but has contributed much.
Joney Jones interesting analysis of the footage of PMQ’s. He did a “slow motion replay” on when Cameron challenged Brown that his own backbenchers didn’t agree with that he should have said BJ4BW’s, and the majority sit there quietly (other than one mad women who nearly falls forward onto the row in front) and secondly when Brown is spouting off, all the cabinet sit there heads down showing little support for what the “great leader” (as Boris would say) is preaching.
Also, interestingly to note that Tom Harris (Labour MP) was on Radio 5 shortly after saying that Brown shouldn’t have used the phase and if he was in Brown’s position he would apologise. He said that he was in cabinet when he used the slogan and that at the conference he couldn’t believe he had said (and neither could other members of the cabinet).
Oi - new thread….
265 - Are you alleging that Davis was part of the front bench team that groomed the civil servant?
If you are, then perhaps it explains Boris’ call to David Cameron.
Are they all involved in your opinion?
Well Hansard is clear on what the Prime Minister said “It is also absolutely clear that we should agree, as a world, on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of depression.”
I wonder whether it’ll make it to the official report tomorrow morning. No doubt No 10 officials are beetling to the Hansard offices now.
Of course it can be taken too far
Oh and how it has by this Government……..
O/T There is a delightful mess building up over Mr Tumbles plans for a new airport and the anti Heathrow expansion Tories.
Boris Johnson’s plans to build a new airport in the Thames estuary could weaken a legal challenge against expansion of Heathrow he is helping to fund, it was claimed today.
Stephen Knight, a representative from the 2M coalition of 22 local authorities opposed to a third runway at Heathrow, said a legal challenge based on the detrimental environmental impact could be undermined by the mayor of London’s plan for another airport.
“Johnson’s director for transport, Kulveer Ranger, said that the “background music” of high-speed rail links to supplant short-haul flights would not address a growing demand for international flights.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/feb/04/boris-heathrow-thames-estuary
75. How did you work that out, last week has been a breeze for the SNP. Labour and Lib Dems have been begging to do deals, desperate to sign up for nothing just to save their skins.