Lib Dems drop to 18% in new ICM poll
February 23rd, 2009
CON 42(+2) LAB 30(+2) LD 18(-4)
…and Labour is back in the 30s again - just!
Well after the excitement of the last ICM and ComRes polls that had the Lib Dems at 22% the latest survey from ICM for the Guardian has the party at 18 points - with both Labour and the Tories showing a 2 point increase on the last survey from the firm a week an a half ago.
So the gap between the main parties is the same and the Tories will be happy to be there well into the 40s and Labour will feel quite satisfied being back in the 30s.
Nick Clegg’s party with be very disappointed by these findings because they come from the pollster that traditionally has the them on the highest levels - and it should be said has a good record for accuracy with the third party this far out from an assumed general election in May 2010.
A feature unique to ICM is the wording of their voting intention question: “The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?”. Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report believes that the “in your area” element makes a difference because “…We know that people give very different answers if they are asked to say specifically how they would vote in their own constituency - people suddenly start taking into account tactical voting or what they think of their MP, and this normally increases Lib Dem support.”
My broad view is that the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed horribly in the LAB-CON battlegrounds. The big question is how they will do in the seats they are defending or in the Labour seats which they hope to take.
So where does this leave Brown Central? The answer is still under enormous pressure but maybe not enough for there to be a change of leaders.
I’m never one for over-emphasising non-voting questions but a majority of more than two to one, those is the survey say Labour would do better at the next election if it was led by someone else.
As regulars will know I have been arguing for years that Brown does not have the qualities required to win an election. This is all glaringly obvious yet the party gave him his coronation two years ago. More fool them.
MessageSpace Advertising
First!
Great clunking first?
That just about right all round methinks..
That’s a super photo of our mincingly effete PM.
Repost:
Is it me or is the Lib Dem share random? They soared recently, for little apparent reason, and have now return to a more normal range, for no apparent reason.
Mike, any news on the reports that YouGov is having finacial problems?
The figures aren’t particularly informative. What is important is that the Tory share remains on about 41% and the movement is between Labour and Lib Dems. It’s Guardian Man and Woman that Brown is losing at the moment.
5
“no apparant reason”
The last poll took place during the recent snow. It was suggested at the time that that might have distorted the result.
Baxter with the usual caveats!
CON 354
LAB 228
LD 37
Majority 58.
Of course this overstates the Tories in Scotland and doesn’t fully reflect LD incumbency so if these figures were repeated on election day I reckon we’d see a Tory majority of around 40.
Wells gives 353, 234, 34
Baxter gives 354, 228, 37
For amusement only, naturally.
When we hit 950K, I’m gonna dance around the room, 90s rave-style, in my pants, to the Mortal Kombat theme.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ0fFgU22ls
It will be only appropriate.
Mike , Quite satisfied to be in the 30’s….. I don’t think so somehow, unless its from the school of…. it could have been a lot worse.
I would be interested to know the demograpic brakdown of the 30%
8, ah, cheers. Didn’t think of that.
*polishes his all-weather space cannon*
5.
Not that these polls mean anything in respect of next GE but the real result is probably roughly 41, 31, 20 ie absolutely no change at all from the same result last time. Certainly all well within the margin of error in these things.
8. How could the snow affect results?
Back to what we’ve been seeing with YouGov who have never really shown Labour dropping or the Lib-Dems rising. Yet another poll having to the Tories solidly in the 40s% from where they would get a majority at a general election.
I wouldn’t say Labour would be “quite satisfied”. Maybe satisfactory relieved.
Anyway, from the last thread, could the expression “Slumdog Millionaire” be a prophetic phrase of things to come?
You know, what with the full effects of quantative easing to kick in and all that……
15.
“How could the snow affect results?”
Heavy snow can bring down Telegraph poles?
First (post on pb.com from Addis Ababa?)
22% for the LibDems never smelt right. Why should nearly one in four voters go for Nick Clegg?
15 - Presumably the theory goes that those capitalist Torys will still have made every effort to get to work and back and thus wont be at home to answer a research phone call whereas the teachers etc that vote Lib were at home and more prone to answer than normal?
The Lib Dems have scored between 18% and 21% in every ICM Guardian poll since October 2007 bar two. 18% is not particularly surprising in that regard. Much less surprising than 22% was last time.
The Tories very consistently poll between 40% and 45%. 42% is pretty much in the centre of their range over the last year.
The most interesting thing is what is happening to the Labour score. It is not immediately collapsing, at least not with ICM. 30% is not, however, a reason for Labour to be putting out flags.
Anecdote alert - I was visiting family friends this weekend. All of them thought that all this recession talk was much overdone and that things weren’t really that bad. If that is at all typical, then when reality hits, watch out for another stepchange in polls.
No enormous surprises then, though obviously a bit disappointing for the Lib Dems. Their mini-bounce did seem to come out of nowhere and may have evaporated similarly. It’s true that Cable got some good TV coverage but he’s been getting that for 18 months and is still doing so - it’s unlikely that that could have produced the improved figures of itself. In any case, I wouldn’t wholly write it off yet. Assuming the MoE is about the usual 3%, they could easily still be around the 20% mark.
Both other major parties will take some comfort from their scores. Labour will be happy just to be heading northwards and to have recrossed back into the thirties while the Tories will be pleased to see the ‘magic 42′ again - the share that delivered the four general election victories under Thatcher and Major.
In fact, a quick scan of the UK Polling Report table for all the polls this year reveals a remarkably similar set of results, of which this is slap-bang in the middle - methodologies and events notwithstanding.
There’ve been 13 polls published so far this year. Taking 42/30/18 as a baseline and using a 3% MoE, only one Conservative score has been out of range (Mori’s 48% last week), all but two Labour shares have been within range (one each way), and all but four Lib Dem scores have been within 3% of where they are now (two either side). This is also the third consecutive ICM poll to report a 12% Tory lead. A lot of smoke and action but little movement?
20 - Those in the South stayed at home because of the ickle ickle bit of nasty snow.
As recently as November ICM in the Guardian gave the Tories a 13% lead - implying that the past 2 - 3 months of bad news as the recession hit home has made little difference! It is not difficult to believe that any signs of upturn later in the year could quite easily halve this margin and put us back well into Hung Parliament territory.
“The most interesting thing is what is happening to the Labour score. It is not immediately collapsing, at least not with ICM. 30% is not, however, a reason for Labour to be putting out flags.”
Indeed. The Conservatives spent 13 years stuck around 30%!
It looks like statistical noise except for the LibDems….. but I will say no more in case certain posters move from celebration to drowning the sorrows with more than one lager.
19. “… the LibDems never smelt right.”
Disgraceful - and Clegg a Sheffield MP, too!
5. I agree, there is no trend with the Lib Dems share which would affect Labours standing more than the Tories.
24, will there be such signs?
Unemployment is widely forecast to top 3m by the year’s end.
GDP is expected to shrink beyond the Government’s optimistic target of midway through the year.
And then we have the horrific borrowing figures. They certainly won’t be declining.
Sadly, I doubt we’ll get much sign of an upturn.
“any signs of upturn later in the year”
The Darling prediction?
4 minutes 12 seconds in. A momentous occasion
http://www.bbc.co.uk/archive/thatcher/6327.shtml?all=1&id=6327
26.
It’s ALL statistical noise, but shhh! don’t tell anyone. Otherwise no one will pay for these polls and there will be another set or two of bankruptcies fueling the credit crunch.
24. Or it could be that the polls will show very little variation between now and the election, irrespective of events.
Mike has shown that the ICM polls 12 months before the past three elections have been there or there abouts to the final result.
20. And what about the capitalist Lib Dem, like moi?
Antifrank. Spot on. The vast majority of people still don’t really get how shit the situation is. We’re not at the bottom of the recession yet by a long way.
what gets me angry about the lib dems,they never get questioned properly on they policy’s by the media ,not like the 2 main parties.The bbc’s new favorite vince cable could talk a load of crap and the bbc fall head over heels with him,if you ask hard questions of lib dem policy and it was brought to the wider public,18% would go to 10%.
Eight
Seven
Six?
FOIVE
29 30 .I am not predicting it - but quite a few independent economists and industrialists are!
31 - “4 minutes 12 seconds in. A momentous occasion”
What happened? Did Mark Thatcher win the lottery.
Two
950,000?!
Thunderbirds are GO!
Neuf cent cinquante millieme!
I WIN. Now I shall have pie.
#21 AntiFrank.
I got that feeling in November/December. There usually can be a disconnect between what people are hearing and what they experience. In Nov/Dec fuel was coming down, prices falling and mortgages cut. Those losing their jobs hadn’t hit a critical mass for most people to know someone or they were announcements rather than reality.
If we get a situation where the job losses go richter or “quantative easing” backfires - with inflationary rather than deflationary pressures - then, yes, a lot more voters will look for something “new” in terms of their previous voting behaviour.
Then again maybe you’re friends could be right. Not everyone is going to lose their job and quantative easing may avert deflation with the BoE restricting the money supply again at the right time.
Mind you, the issues Labour in Scotland have been trying to campaign on does suggest preparation for worse to come and they appear to be attempting to position themselves as an opposition party againt the SNP government in terms of repossessions and job losses.
Not a great place to be I would say as it may just rile voters against them even more as the one thing that causes an emotional reaction to parties is hypocrisy and lying. They have some forgiving nature for mistakes or oversights.
“The most interesting thing about this ICM poll is that it’s not interesting. In fact it’s boring.
More to the point is Dr Raymond Cocteaus reports that YouGov is having finacial problems. (see 6.) Is this a fact Mike?
Madasafish’s last post on the last thread predicated a DOW of 700 points, (yes 700) by 2011. When was the last time they were 700 points 1940? Lol
OFF TOPIC
Hot Tip: informed sources say that next Obama nominee for US Commerce Secretary (is the 3rd time the charm?) will be former Washington State Governor Gary Locke.
42 I think it was the moment your brain couldn’t cope any more and said critical error….” It has performed an illegal operation and will be shut down”.
6
YouGov
Financial Problems..
Profits warning…Share price halves from 70p. Still profitable and with cash… Talk of predator?
LDs = TEE HEE HEE!!!!
It would be a real shame if YouGob went down. Their innovative approach to polling has beena breath of fresh air.
Surely internet polling would actually be cheaper than face to face or telephone polling?
One poll - don’t get overexcited.
General position? Something like 42-30-18 (which leaves 10% others, which will mask higher in Wales and - especially - Scotland, and lower in England).
Looks like workable Tory majority - lots of unemployed Labour MPs - and some Lib Dem losses.
53
Ave it 09
You need to talk up the Lib Dems….. They could be the key to the complete destruction of New Labour.
LOL! “YouGob.” Thats the second time I’ve done that this today.
As with every poll I’ll voice support for the politicshome marginals poll. I think that the way people vote actually varies far less than the polls would have us believe, so even a long way out a big marginals poll is better than more recent and smaller national polls.
56 MTF. Much as I think it would just fabulous for the whole country if Labour sunk without a trace I can’t see it happening. They have a northern heartland of 150 to 200 seats that will not budge.
50- SSI
Has Locke paid all his taxes?
56 LDs will never overtake Labour!
The 27% absolute Labour hard core won’t vote LD and this guarantees Lab 170 min!!
Psst, has anyone told LabourList the embargo’s over and they can post their excellent and insightful article on this?
Actually, I’m growing bored with LabourList. They don’t update it enough. And one of their articles, a week or two ago, was actually quite sensible.
The Guardian is headlining the poll as if it’s not bad for Labour, but personally bad for Brown–most people think Labour would do better with a different leader, even natural Labour supporters.
Are they just trying to spice up a dull result, or does this mean anything at all? The article did contain the usual caveat that there is no way to effectively ditch the man.
57 - I do it all the time!
I’ve now updated the main piece
59
Complete destruction in my book is <150 seats.
re 44. Yes you were the 950,000th. Well done!!
59,your totally right,I’am from the norhern heart lands and I’ve said it before,you could pin a red rosette on a donkey and they would vote for it.
68, sadly I think you’re right. Morley & Outwood isn’t a nailed on certainty but for Labour to lose it they’d need to lose hugely.
67- mike Smithson
Do you keep track of whos was the 100,000th 500,000th and so on?
OT: d’you think the Royal Mail issue could end up being a serious pressure point for Brown et al.?
Are Labour back in the 30s? There’s a 50% chance that they’re still in the 20s.
54, Gin, I would think internet polling would have to be heavily adjusted. It would underestimate the Conservative vote because most OAP’s do not have intenet access.
49. Not that long ago. The Dow didn’t go up through 700 points for the first time until Spring 1961 and did so most recently in early 1975, following the bear market of the early 1970s. There’s a full time-line here:
http://www.djindexes.com/DJIA110/learning-center/
if you are feeling less than gruntled about the use of taxpayers’ money on the Real Help website, you may want to click on this link.
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/ContactUs/Complaints.aspx
71 Privatisations may come back as a political issue. The national debt will be horrible for years to come and there will be pressure to raise cash by whatever means.
why do the three photos of the party leaders look like an extras casting for ‘Milk’?
re 70 Yes.
Roger was the 100,000th and the 250,000. Stephen Phelps the 500,000th and Punter the 750,000th.
Just click the “by” and you’ll get the number.
75 They will not let you register a complaint over the phone.
Fascinating piece about allegations of incompetence in Mark Penn’s participation in Blair’s 2005 election campaign:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/dispatches_greenberg_vs_penn.php
re 70 Chris you can go and check for yourself. I was 900,000th. It always used to Roger at the milestones.
Mike is right:
“My broad view is that the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed horribly in the LAB-CON battlegrounds. The big question is how they will do in the seats they are defending or in the Labour seats which they hope to take.
So where does this leave Brown Central? The answer is still under enormous pressure but maybe not enough for there to be a change of leaders. “
In that sense, not much has changed. It does now look as though the apparent LibDem boost of a couple of weeks ago was spurious; either just random error, or some sampling bias caused by the weather conditions. Given that there didn’t seem to be much reason for the bounce, that is not very surprising.
Going forward, I’d anticipate similar polls to this for a while, with Labour perhaps drifting down a shade, but not meltdown. It does have a solid, very loyal core, and it will be tough for Clegg to eat much into that, although the government’s position on torture, ID cards, Greengate, internet databases etc will help him.
Evening all
Well, no surprises for me in this poll. I predicted 43-29-18 on the previous thread so I’ll take 42-30-18 as a pretty good guess (!).
As I said over there, ICM does occasionally throw out outlier numbers for individual parties in their polls and the 22% LD share in the Sunday Telegraph poll was clearly one of those. It’s a move forward from the 16% Guardian number and is now pretty much in line with other pollsters as indeed are these numbers for the other parties.
A terrible poll for Labour and very little for the Tory majority on here to be worried about.
The city of bradford has 3 seats,all labour,if labour were going to lose these seats ,they should have lost at least one at the last general election,with the Iraq war still on people’s minds and large asian areas they still voted labour.
Obama might not like to read some of the content on McBroon’s Itwasnae me website.
“The spread of sub-prime: despite record house-building, more people wanted homes than were for sale and they were prepared to borrow more to get their homes. In America people were encouraged to buy homes with cheap credit and low starter interest rates, but salespeople made no proper assessment of what level of lending they could afford to repay.
As US house prices fell and the US economy slowed the number of people defaulting on their mortgage started to rise, and once other lenders realised that was happening, the system started to panic, as everyone was trying to work out how many other risky assets the other banks held. That’s what first started to spread fear through the system early last year.”
re 84 but how many individuals cast all those votes. I bet they have an impressive number of postal votes in Bradford last time.
“Labour will feel quite satisfied being back in the 30s”
Shows how far they have fallen.
CON GAIN BRADFORD
88 - or the new Chippenham seat?
The fate of the Lib Dems is entirely in Labour’s hands. If those on the left feel that Labour are (a) still a party they believe and (b) have a chance of keeping the Tories to a slim majority, then the Lib Dems will be horribly squeezed, as Mike suggests. However, if both conditions fall away (and the fall of one might cause the fall of the other) then Labour may collapse to around 24-25% and the Lib Dems will be benefit greatly (in terms of votes, if not seats).
86,you may be right on that,but they are other reasons to,look at number 68 on here for another reason.
10.
Crosby
340, 228, 42, 19, 3, 13 (assumes SF abstain, SNP 30.7%, average LD incumbency)
although significant TV and regional effects could make it
348, 220, 45, 16, 3, 13
[42 seats in total would be won by a different party to the UNS forecast]
Something in the order of a 1% to 1.5% swingback should produce a hung parliament…
Dow Jones at a 12 year low..7150
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/feb/23/icm-poll-february-2009
76
I’m hoping that one silver lining will be the end of the BBC license fee.
The headline figure sounds plausible, in fact marginally better for Labour than I’d expected after the blizzard of negative coverage. The mysterious LibDem bounce that puzzled us all remains opaque and perhaps we’ll never know. My theory is that it was Labour voters annoyed that we weren’t bashing the banker bonuses hard enough - they’re now saying “oh, well, all right then” and have reverted. I don’t have much evidence for it, except that the bonuses did prompt a spate of annoyed emails from people who I know to be normally Labour and viscerally anti-Tory.
I’m not sure that the secondary question on Brown tells us much, since it’s ambiguous whether people mean “I’d personally be more likely to vote Labour if it was run by that nice Jon Cruddas (or whoever)” or “I read in the papers that Labour’s in difficulty under Brown, so maybe they’d do better with someone else”.
An interesting local Tory tactic in our by-election has been to rubbish the LibDem chances of challenging them (a barchart with an arrow saying “can’t win here!”). Since it’s factually correct in that ward (the LibDems were 8th, 9th and 10th=last in the previous ward election), it implies that they do think there’s an anti-Labour tactical vote up for grabs. Since we think there’s still a larger anti-Tory tactical vote, we’re making the same point.
Mike’s comment here is spot on IMO:
“My broad view is that the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed horribly in the LAB-CON battlegrounds. The big question is how they will do in the seats they are defending or in the Labour seats which they hope to take.”
88 - Bradford tories won’t vote for the posh southern shandy drinking powder hound.
A Pint of Mild with Pickles please!
97
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I think thats repetitive posting yet again.
97 - those who live in Bradford-on-Avon might.
Re: 96 - I don’t disagree with either you or Mike, Nick. Any LD starting in a distant second or third is going to get hammered - we know that. I’m sure an LD paper candidate isn’t going to be too bothered if their vote falls 5% or 10% as long as they keep their deposit.
Where the LDs are the incumbents or where they are close challengers to Labour or the Conservatives, the amount of effort put in (and hopefully having been put in) will be that much greater.
88 Ave It. Are the Taleban running a candidate in Bradford by any chance?
96 NickP “[The local Conservatives] do think there’s an anti-Labour tactical vote up for grabs. Since we think there’s still a larger anti-Tory tactical vote, we’re making the same point.”
It will be interesting to see if this possible confirmation of the LibDem squeeze materialises.
“Many people think the recession is being overstated, but the polls will really shift when the reality hits.” Unfortunately for this view is flawed because half of the population with public sector incomewill not be hit by recession in 2009. Salaries rising, no job losses, mortgage rates declining and bargins in the shops. Why worry/ Cetainly why vote against the provider. The Tory party still has an uphill struggle to grab power.
tory tim,we all know you are a closet tory,but you have to let it go,cameron beat mr Davis fairly,come on Tim,come back to the fold.
93- The Dow has now lost more than 1000 points since Obama’s inauguration, thanks Mr Geithner!
97.
Eric was in the Fees Office. He asked the clerk if he could some help to get support for a redundant Member.
The clerk asked where he might locate this redundant member.
Says Eric: ‘Over the hill’
“No sir, “I didn’t ask for the condition but the location.”
“Well laddie it’s over a damned great hill from where I’m looking.”
101 I’ll have to check!
Tim = LOL
950066 next!
Countdown to 1,000,000!!!
108.
Can you go play in the sandpit till 999 990?
We’ll have whip round for the Smarties.
Apologies if this has been posted earlier.
Anthony Wells follows up on Mike’s consideration of whether the polls tendency to over-estimate the Labour vote has unwound
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1933
106,’over the hill’just like mr brown,no infact it’s a mountain,a very big mountain.
109 Aw,don’t be too cruel to a poor little Watford fan
I always think of ICM as the, ‘gold standard’ poll, I’m sorry that yougov are in trouble, they are my second favourite.
In normal times for a government to be 12% behind the main opposition party would be terrible news, at the moment, its probably not that bad.
I would estimate that the change in the base polling position between the last ICM and now is Con +1, Lab -3, LD +2 - which would translate to a “par score” of 41-25-24 (a nonintuitive result).
by LS February 23rd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Certainly a lot better than that prediction.
113 - But as we’ve commented on here before, like the Thatcher haters of the late 80’s, some of the Labour haters here have lost all rationale.
Mike is the Cameron photo the one related to this piece of spite.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3602643.ece
103 “Half the population with public sector income”… Does the state really employ 50% of all workers? if so no wonder we are f**ked.
re 115. Yes.
114. Tim. Do you mean rationality or do you really mean rationale?
re 103 more public sector bashing I see. Many NHS trust, mine included, made staff redundant a few year’s ago. My department still has unfilled vacancies which are nec3essary to balance the budget.
The only way that the LDs can overtake Labour is to agree on a party reform process with Dave in 2010 that severs Labour from its Union teat, thus bankrupting them.
Shorn of their quasi-moral union funds, Labour will be nearly bankrupt and certainly in no position to fight a concerted war on four or five fronts.
Tim- It has been pointed out to you before how nasty and vile many of your posts read and today is no exception. Now, repeat after me:
“Every day and in every way I will try to be a nicer person” It should help you to feel better.
119. Chris A. I think it’s the street football coordinators and the equality people that we need to reduce. Most people think the NHS needs all the frontline staff and “real” support staff that it has.
103. MTF 50% is nonsense it’s around 20% (approx 6m out of 30m).
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pse1208.pdf
Hazel Blears is 4ft 11 inches tall,for the record
121.
“Every day and in every way I will try to be a nicer person”
P’raps once he sees it working on you he might start too?
These Tories and their double standards. Have you asked Gordon Brown for a job recently?
109/112
123
Yes I guessed as much, but Gordo is doing his best as with his 160K twitter post advertised recently.
I am nevertheless amazed that ICM poll Labour at 30%. Perhaps people are still hanging on to the save the world message from the great leader. Surely it cannot last with all the reckless spending.
Wage Slave- Please accept my apologies, as I forgot to include you in my little homily.
@125:
That’s arse and you know it. The Blue Harpies around here are rarely as systematically and consistently unpleasant as our tim always seems to manage.
122 Ken. Actually privatising the entire NHS would be a very sensible thing to do. The basic premise of the NHS is that you get treatement free at the point of use. OK. But that does not imply that the government has to be the one providing the service.
128.
You see, you CAN be polite, even when you’re being nasty. It’s easy when you try.
@128:
Wage Slave comes across as a man who suffers from a kind of libel-tourettes.
92. Following on from the previous analysis, some very interesting outliers popping-up for the Tories on the more optimistic figures…
Bassetlaw
Derby North
Erewash
Nottingham South
Sherwood
Luton North
Norwich North
Norwich South
Blackpool South
Chorley
Crewe and Nantwich
Ellesmere Port and Neston
Bridgend
Delyn
Gower
Newport West
Birmingham Selly Oak
Coventry South
Telford
Warwickshire North
Harrogate and Knaresborough
121 - But purely factual.
Bob Boothby shagged Macmillans wife, and Ronald Kray.
Mark Thatcher is of course, exactly that we all know he is, and a fitting tribute would be to name all arms deals Al Luvyamamma in recognition.
And in Bradford “Cameron’s hoovering up” may have a slightly different meaning than down south in the 90’s.
Lighten up lad.
133 they are all nailed on con gain!
Con maj 300 yes!!!!!!
129.
OK, occasionally Tim goes OTT but jaykay was reacting completely OTT to this:
“like the Thatcher haters of the late 80’s, some of the Labour haters here have lost all rationale.”
Seems quite balanced, whether you agree with it or not.
@133:
Holding Crewe and Nantwich would be hilarious, though improbable.
132.
” comes across as a man who suffers from a kind of libel-tourettes”
Say that again and I’ll sue you!
127 Ironically there are 80,000 less jobs in the public sector now than there were at it’s peak in 2005. That said the trend in 2008 was upwards to the end of Q3 and there were still over 500k more public sector workers in 2008 than there were in 1999.
@136:
Yes, you’re right. That was overreacting.
135. OTOH, I have Tories failing in
Hampstead and Kilburn
Edinburgh South
Renfrewshire East
Stirling
Gloucester
Kingswood
Batley and Spen
Richmond Park
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
Oxford West and Abingdon
Camborne and Redruth
Cornwall North
Devon North
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Newton Abbott
St Austell and Newquay
Leeds North West
141 Con nailed on gain etc!
Cornwall = LDs 0 Con 6!!!
139… 500k more jobs that we are taxed on to pay for.
Bloody Hell MTF, did you really think that 50% of the workforce are in the Public Sector?
Imagine how high it would be if you lived somewhere with some culture and Universities!!!!!!
137. Even Tory-sceptical me says C&N could stay Tory. I think the Dunwoody effect was huge, and Timpson seems a sensible chap…
142 As a Bournemouth resident that painfully reminds me of Blue Square Premier’s Weymouth’s 9-0 drubbing AT HOME last Saturday
@144:
That figure he was grasping for is that 50% of the adult population are now dependent on the State Teat for 70+% of their income. That’s a terrifying figure, and it makes it easy to understand why we are deep, deep in the mucky brown.
Tim-If you ever feel that you should be a comedy script writer resist the temptation.
FWIW,I’d say,with the benefit of local info etc that Mid Dorset is ‘too close to call’
148 - If you promise not to make any more crap albums.
I THINK THAT MIKE SHOULD START A NEW THREAD ON THE SINKING MARKETS.
DOW now down to -245 pnts only minutes before the close.
Dow Jones closed at a level not seen since 1997…
134. Actually you engage in lots of other unpleasantness. You specialise in innuendo and smears. Most of it isnt factual - after all your Eton fixation is roughly equivalent to screaming about the Scottish Socialist thug mafia. There is as much truth in calling Brown a “Scottish socialist thug” as there is in talking about “Eton fops”.
Brown is Scottish, he is a socialist and in the view of many he is a thug.
Cameron went to Eton and in the view of Tim, he is a fop.
I can read Tim like a book - admittedly it’s a Ladybird book for the under-7s. He is a rather bad debater - although he probably falls in the top 10% of Labour supporters - I’m sure that he impresses his dim friends down the pub. I think he may be one of the more intelligent Labour supporters - he’s given up on actually trying to defend Labour unlike the unfortunate NickP, Hopi Sen or Ermintrude.
Sorry: now down -245 pnts.
148 I dont know Jaykay, Tim would have a natural home at the BBC(but without the comedy). Tim doesn’t do irony either btw
146 could be worse - you could be Bournemouth!!!
Or West Ham HAHAHAHAHA - ooh you are er sorry…
137 - given that Ed Timpson will have had 2 years’ incumbancy I think Con Hold C&N is actually the most likely outcome
152. Markets can go down as well as up. The bad news is that they are forward indicators, so the financial markets are suggesting no recovery for 9 months.
My broad view is that the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed horribly in the LAB-CON battlegrounds. The big question is how they will do in the seats they are defending or in the Labour seats which they hope to take.
Or, of course in the Con held marginals against Lib Dems, which the party still hopes may make some progress.
In terms of ICM, a year or so ago there were some spectacular bounces from month to month in the Lib Dem score, and it would seem that that has returned. I am yet to be convinced these are “real” changes, unless some appearances by leading Lib Dems have such an influence on the electorate when they hit just as fieldwork for the poll is taking off. This time, of course, we had upward bounces in 3 different polls, so let’s see if the other two have a downward bounce too, which may indicate that they ARE real bounces.
153.
” He is a rather bad debater”
Watch it, he might acknowledge you as a master debater. Play the man not the ball!
Brown is no more a socailist than you are a kitten. Cameron may or may not be a fop. It’s difficult to assess because, when he stands next to Mandymate Osborne, he seems like the incredible hulk in comparison.
Markets can go down as well as WAY down.
FINAL dow: -250 PNTS or 3.41%, to stand at 7114.
Getting close to sub 7000 teritory. And all this despite the US banks having a good day.
Make one think.
156 If you factor out the 17 point deduction for Bournemouth,they are on course to finish above Luton Town and at least one of Grimsby Town/Chester City/Barnet (the last doing themselves a huge favour on Saturday witht their 4-1 victory)
I am quietly confident of at least a top 10 finish for the Hammers-whilst wishing Watford well in their quest for survival I do confess to having a huge soft spot for Southampton (its people,the city,the memory of a teenage romance),and my first priority in the lower reaches of the Championship would to hope and pray the Saints survive.
Off now,before Mike Smithson tells me off for turning this into ‘Football Focus’
134. tim - out of interest, how many of the five Bradford District seats do you think Labour will win at the general election? Bear in mind that they were within little more than 200 of winning all five last time. Bradford South ought to be safe but after that?
161 Markets can go down as well as belly up.
157. If the Tories get 300 seats of more I’d hazard that C&N would be one of them….
160. Ah, wage slave. Slippery as ever. My answer to
“Brown is no more a socailist than you are a kitten” is
miao. purr.
160. WS. In what way is Brown not a socialist?
American Insurance Group, the insurance giant that is 80-percent owned by the US government, is in discussions with the government to secure additional funds so it can keep operating after next Monday, when it will report the largest loss in U.S. corporate history, CNBC has learned.
Could the fate of AIG forcast the fate of the USA as a Leading Power?
I’ve just watched Ming Campbell put in a woefully incompetent performance on BBC4 “The Book Quiz”..”Oh, was I supposed to push the buzzer?”
I gather he’s been touted as a successor to Michael Martin as Speaker. God help us. He would make Martin look competent.
169. No.
168
I think Gordo is left of Socialist. He wants the state to control everything, and that’s from the moment we step outside our front door each morning.
164 - Keighley should go blue, especially with Cryer’s retirement
Phil Davies can be expected to hold Shipley
Bradford West is a law unto itself - it appears ethnicity is more important than party in that seat. East is a LibDem long-shot. South will almost certainly stay Labour, unless the White Working Class can be persuaded to swing behind Cameron
163 LOL not too worried about Southampton myself!!
169- No but the impact on Obama might begin to be significant if Geithner doesn’t begin to be at least mildly trusted my the markets.
(I’m not sure the “fiscal responsibility” summit (hahahahahaha) in the White house today has helped at all)
164 - Take the Iraq war vote out of the equation and all Bradfod seats are reasonably safe.
Keighly will be the battleground.
173. I’d agree with all that. Labour will find it difficult to hold on to Keighley without Anne Cryer and it’s traditionally been a bellweather constituency (the 1979-83 parliament was the only one in the last fifty years it’s not been represented by an MP whose party was in government - and the majority that time was less than a hundred). Shipley ought to become a very solid Tory seat, Philip Davies being well suited to the area.
In the three city seats, Gerry Sutcliffe is probably well ensconced in Bradford South and it would take a huge upset to remove him but the other two are certainly vulnerable. Zahid is the best Tory candidate to have put up in West for quite some time (this is not saying a huge amount but I have found him impressive) and may push Marsha Singh out. The really interesting one, as you rightly say, will be East. The Lib Dems did very well there in 2005, building on their inroads at local level and the Iraq War. To win, they’ll need to mobilise a significant tactical vote and I think they may fall short but it will be close.
153 - Stick to the economics Ken.
You’re good at that without overstretch.
(You must have a quota of “dim” “idiot” and “stupid” - save them for you specialist subject)
176. Fancy £20 at evens on Bradford West?
Out of interest, are you local to the area? Your oblique reference to Eric of Worth Valley suggests you might be.
170
I thought he had already retired,never see him on the Lib Dem benches at PMQ’s,maybe too many unhappy memories.
178. Tim. I’ve crushed you in every argument we’ve had on every subject. You are quite bright for a Labour supporter, but that doesnt say much, don’t get above yourself - it will only end in you looking stupid. Well, more stupid than usual.
Obama has just promised to halve the US deficit. Last week he signed off a trillion dollar spending orgy. The man’s clearly on drugs. Either that or our yank chums are going to get shafted in the biggest tax bonanza ever. WTF?
182
perhaps he is learning from Gordo, tell a pack of porkies often enough…
179 - I’ll wait and see a.What Ladbrokes put up.
b.How anti Sikh the Tory campaign is.
181 - Ken you crush everyone on everything.
In your shaving mirror, you are king of the world.
182. He said he’ll halve it by 2013 which isn’t really all that good. It means that the US will still be running multi-hundred-billion dollar annual deficits years after the recession ends.
@181:
Is there any chance you two could just, you know, go and bum each other or something and get it out of your systems? The barely repressed manlove-strained sexual tension in here is becoming tiresome even for me.
182- Even the Washington Post was a bit concerned by this tiny discrepancy between spending plans and the promises regarding deficit (you should remember that he has also promised health coverage for all…)
In many ways, Obama stil refuses (as he did during last fall’s debate) to answer a single basic question: he said that he will have to make “painful choices” regarding spending cuts, what are they?
184. Ah, the old ad hominem, the refuge of the man who knows he’ll lose on the issues, any issue. Tim, congratulations, you’ve managed to look more stupid than usual already. Only took you five minutes after I warned you of the risk. Don’t worry, I’m sure that with your dim Labour friends you still tower over them intellectually.
187
it’s all irrelevant.
After a while the US will be unable to borrow..
Hell in a hand basket is the term..
Dow target? 1400.
Meanwhile. according to reports, the Royal Mail pension scheme defecit ballons to 5.9 billion.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7906820.stm
185 David. I wonder if it ever occurs to the big O or to our own genius GROFAZ in No.10 that the Chinese and the oil states might decide they want to buy less of our government debt in future? Borrow, borrow, borrow - hapless morons.
190 - In fact, the report is saying that the deficit is “significantly larger than” £5.9 billion. I can’t see how you could use that phraseology for a deficit that was below £7 billion and it could easily be a lot more.
O/T Tennis - Dubai
Murray injured his ankle today and he’s not sure to play tomorrow. that makes Djoko the big favorite of the tournament but Simon could also make it.
182. Obama is, as I have constantly said, a Fart of massive smelly proportions.
But will all those liberal scribblers and reporters of left leaning Democratic supporting Newspapers realise that they have supported a Fraud and an Incompetent? Only when their Papers begin to close for lack of cash.
192
Gordo will fix it. First class 50p second class 49p
194 He’s Blair all over again isn’t he. Only one that likes spending money he hasn’t got even more.
189. Rotter! You said DOW = 700 only a thread ago.
The actual poll figures seem well within the margin for error in these things compared with previous ones.
So the situation is no change.
Maybe labour have not gone up as much maybe libs have not gone down as much or maybe the tories are a bit overstated.
The fact is despite all the adjustments we are dealing with very small numbers of people.
The average of all the polls is perhaps something to look at. I am surprised you do not keep track of this.
I would not expect there to be much change in Labours poll ratings for a while and we have all the budget and G20 guff to come. But equally we still have a lot of unemployment to come as well and the amount of borrowing is going to be shockingly eye-watering.
The issue which the Tories have clearly latched on to good effect is the debt to be paid by the next generation - their poster Mummy’s eyes, Daddy’s nose and Gordon’s debt is I think one which will have the same resonance as ‘Labours not working’ did.
People may think they themselves are all right (maybe) but this emphasis on children is potentially lethal for Labour.
Our local Vauxhall dealership has gone bust. LDV look like going down the tubes, Jag/Land Rover face severe difficulties and Vauxhall must be very vulnerable to GM’s problems.
The industrial landscape in 6 months time may well be even less happy than now. Its easy to see why Brown will want to stage manage one of his well known smoke and mirrors illusions to come out of the Obama meeting/G20/Budget.
196. Well he’s got BIG ears too.
194. The jury remains out on Obama. He’s done no worse than any incoming president - a fair number of rejected nominees, a fast, albeit slightly noxious early legislative package of stimulus measures. Geithner has been having some difficulties - but he faces exactly the same problems that Paulson faced - politics of getting more money into the banking sector without upsetting main street. Given the economic background, Obama is doing what he can. Relative to some of the bizarre positive beliefs, Obama has been shown to be a just another politician.
Obama hasnt really had to make any “difficult” decisions yet - the type that will define his presidency. There will be many of them. So far, I’d say he’s about par for the course. No worse, no better.
197- wasn’t 700 a Footsie forecast?
187. He’s going to have to do something about health care, though. Since U.S. health care insurance is linked to employment, the more jobless, the more people either go onto the government dime or, if they don’t qualify for assistance, end up clogging the emergency room. These people will end up paying with credit (and defaulting on the debt), or if they’ve maxed out their credit already, they’ll just end up not paying and the doctor will be forced to go round collecting debts, like something out of Victorian times. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.
201. Yes.
200 The Jury is in, and well in, as far as I’m concerned
191. I agree. For that matter, does it occur to them what the political consequences of the policy are? We saw the first aspects of it a few days ago with Hillary getting it in the neck for not raising the human rights question in China. And why was that, I wonder? On a broader level, before long, the US is going to wake up to the fact that China will soon be a larger economy than America and might start throwing its weight about a bit more? And when it does, how big an inhibiting factor will China’s ownership of several trillion dollars of US debt be in determining how the US deals with these challenges?
189. The UK would hit problems before the US and some other countries would go before either.
I’m very glad I have my own walnut tree. It makes the stockpiling of nuts a lot easier. Now all I need is to secure my supply of berries.
200 ken. Oooooohh….I beg to differ. Once you open up the spending taps it is very, very difficult to stop. However Geithner’s effort on banks / credit may be viewed by the market there is no doubt that the USA is indulging itself in a porkfest it can’t afford. (Much as we are in the UK). Can you see Pelosi and the Dem crew making savage cuts by choice ever? In the first month of his presidency Obama has promised America borrowing for the foreseeable future. That is not sustainable.
207. Patrick. Would I have preferred a smaller package which was better targeted and less pork filled? Yes.
But, I’m not convinced that the US cannot afford this porkfest. It can’t afford to keep it going for sure, but that’s another thing. As I said, Obama is going to need to make some big decisions - you could argue that this was one, I tend not to think so, I think it will be in year 2/3 when he has to make choices about cuts or taxes that we get a really good look at Obama.
169.
$60 billion fourth quarter loss for AIG.
http://www.reuters.com/article/americasDealsNews/idUSTRE51M74Y20090223
Now that is really impressive. You have to work very hard to lose so much money so quickly.
The guardians reporting seems awful.
It may have been mentioned on other posts but they show Lab and Cons DOWN 2 point but Libs UP 2 points - whilst you say the opposite. And they say libs are up 2 but down 4 compared to the ICM report.
Its a shambles.
Taxpayer may get £500bn liability
BBC business editor Robert Peston says that if the deal is completed it will take the total support by British taxpayers to the banks to £1.3 trillion.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7906922.stm
I reckon most people can’t comprehend these kind of numbers. Eye watering is the under statement of the year.
210- They always compare to the last ICM poll published in their paper.
210 - the Guardian’s changes are cf THEIR last ICM poll, not the last poll carried out by ICM
209- glw
The news arrived after the markets closed. It could put additional pressure on the Dow tomorrow morning (the market could test the 7000 points)
213- paul D
Snap!
215 - They do say Great Minds Think Alike
211 Will Gordo blame the Americans for it? 500 billion, holy moly./ THe Govt is going to be in hoc for decades.
209/214. See my post #169. about AIG. First again.
217. It’s a guarantee, it’s not the loss. Assume 40% of it goes bad and the recovery rate is 50% (both fairly pessimistic) and the actual loss is down £100 billion. So only that bit is added to the final debt.
217. Not Labour, they’ll be long gone.
Poor old Tories to pick up and mend the mess. Again!
218- weathercock
yes but you didn’t include the amount of loss in your post.
Rumors about bamkruptcy are resurfacing, of course.
220 - Cable seems to think all this lot will show a profit in the next 6 or 7 years.
221.
Seems like Crick on digging for dirt on the Ashcroft donation setup on tonights Newsnight.
Interesting to see what the annoying one has come up with. I’m sure he will manufacture a full blown fire, even if their isn’t any new evidence (which in this case given their definitely is smoke, shouldn’t require him to be too creative / too much hot air wafting).
Mr Cameron added that the Tories had been vindicated in their criticism of the government’s VAT cut, saying that even “one of our oldest allies”, Nicolas Sarkozy, had attacked the decision.
‘Oldest allies’ there’s me thinking the French were, ‘Cheese eating surrender monkeys’
Ah well,suppose DC will be calling for the UK to be, ‘At the heart of Europe’ next.
‘Ol KC has obviously got DC under his thumb!
Perhaps the Conservatives Should create the “bad bank” and Call it “New Labour debt bank 1997- 2010″). Then everyone would know who was on watch when it occurred.
222. Cable doing his Oracle act again.
@255:
Old allies, aulder enemies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Alliance
I knew you couldn’t trust the Scotch.
I see Newsnight picking out Ken Clarke in their story to blame for contaminated blood, even though he was the last Health Secretary of 8 over that period.
210 - a bit unfair - the Guardian report at least acknowledges the existence of other polls from ICM. Most papers decline to consider such a thing!
225- Maybe Cameron (unlike you) is able to understand the difference between Chirac and Sarkozy…
Besides the UK and France have been on the same side of every major conflict since the Crimean War. Does the UK has much more ancient constant allies?
Mandy playing dirty on Royal Mail privatisation.
Pass the vote, or Royal Mail pensioners will lose half their pensions.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5792760.ece
O/T Tennis
Another winning tip from HenryG Mason, Serra has beaten Nieminen in two sets
231 Does the UK has much more ancient constant allies?
Portugal is the standard answer to that question.
234. It is, in the sense of it being the other party to England’s (not Britain’s) longest standing alliance - but they’ve been somewhat part-time in that status.
If I had to have a guess at it, the Netherlands and predecessors probably have as long a record of being on the same side as the UK / Britain / England as anyone - though their neutrality during WWI is an obvious exception.
110.”Of course, the unknown quantity is how well the polls will reflect the large shift in political support since the last election. All three of the elections since the 1992 debarcle have been Labour victories, and the pollsters have been gradually honing their techniques under those circumstances.”
That bit really stuck out for me in Anthony Wells article, that point, and also the possibility of an increased turnout next time.
211.”I reckon most people can’t comprehend these kind of numbers. Eye watering is the under statement of the year.”
I think you are right, I have heard one or two people describe them as almost surreal.
235 But we’ve been at war against the Netherlands, in the 17th century. Not, I think, with Portugal - allies since the 15th century, IIRC.
229 -The Health Secretary with the most information?
Well Newsnight report seemed to indicated that on many occasions well before Clarke, both Labour and Tory Health ministers were well aware that there were serious risks with this stuff and effectively did nothing. So more information, didn’t sound like it to me, the only one still in front line politics, yes!
Milliband better hope that these “secret” documents aren’t released and show that the UK has had anything to do with torture, given his response show on Newsnight. He would be absolute toast.
235 Arguably up until the Entente Cordiale the German states (Prussia more than most) were consistent allies, certainly through 18th & 19th Centuries - generally against the French. Lots of wars against the Dutch until they conquered us in 1688.
It was first suspected that HIV could be transmitted to patients receiving blood transfusions in 1982 when American haemophiliacs contracted the virus, but health minister Kenneth Clarke dismissed fears, claiming there was “no conclusive proof” that Aids was transmitted through blood.
In the 1980s the UK was not self-sufficient in donor blood and the NHS imported blood and plasma sold by donors in America. Blood was not heat treated by the NHS until 1985 and by then 1,200 haemophiliacs had been infected with HIV.
The Sunday Times lead a campaign for Kenneth Clarke, by now Health Secretary, to pay compensation to the victims.
However, Mr Clarke and Margaret Thatcher resisted calls for compensation by suggesting a payout for this medical accident would leave the NHS open to further expensive claims.
Ah yes, the scientist PM and Ken done up like a kipper.
240.Oracle, can you elaborate? The joys of wanting to watch both Newsnights.
234- Portugal was neutral during WW2, Netherlands during WW1.
So may I reformulate: whata re the other countries that have always been on the side of the UK during every major conflict since the Crimean War?
The US come close but they remained neutral during part of each world war. Who else?
Just more of the same basically saying that the UK don’t do torture, etc, etc
Here comes Crick with dirt digging exercise, all about Ashcroft and Bayyyleeze (I think he has got Gordo disease).
237. Portugal is Britain’s oldest allies, but I don’t know if they are England’s oldest
Sam Coates on the Red Box - Why - as the law stands - the Ashcroft case wont go anywhere
I am at a loss to understand that 30% of people polled stil support the worst Government this Country has ever known. I am certain there will be some red faces post the next election, fraud permitting.
243 In WW2 we fought the French in Senegal, Syria, Lebanon, Madagascar and, most notoriously, at the naval battle of Mers-el-Kebir (Oran).
Crick turns up nothing again. He seems to be losing his touch.
243
Portugal may have been neutral during WW2, but we did sort of borrow the Azores. Portugal as the UK’s oldest ally did expect us to declare war on India when India invaded Goa, can’t imagine why we didn’t
Our ally since the Crimea Russia.
243 Excluding Commonwealth countries (the Dominions were independent) and local wars (Boer War while significant to UK wasn’t globally) probably France.
Though in WWII Vichy France wouldn’t be called an ally - the UK did fight Vichy French forces.
Crick got absolutely nothing to say. Desperately trying to cause a fire, with no new info. All he can say is that Ashcroft, UK company makes donations, blah blah blah.
Crick trying to run fact that Ashcroft maybe (and probably) isn’t paying UK tax on ALL his earning. Seems to have given up trying to claim he doesn’t pay any tax.
If we are going to get into that, surely there are a lot of other in parliament that would be in the doo doo.
Front Pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Tuesday-February-24-2009/Media-Gallery/200902415228335?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15228335_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Tuesday_February_24%2C_2009
Alex meets Hillary - Gordon peeved?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7906848.stm
232. I know Mandy wants to be Roy Cohen when he grows up but, sir, at long last, have you no shame?
250.Has any donor had more scrutiny from the media in the last 12 years? The Labour party, the Times etc have spent vast amounts of time digging into Ashcroft because of his links with the Conservative party. But one fact remains, he is has shown a very deep commitment to that party throughout the the good and the bad times politically.
247 Christina - Given the high profile these donations have had, it’s very hard to imagine that the Conservatives haven’t had cast-iron legal advice on their acceptability.
The key point people miss about Lord Ashcroft is the fact that he is putting so much of his own time and effort into working to help rid us of the Blair/Brown government. He could go anywhere in the world, and just enjoy his wealth. Instead, he is beavering away to help turn around Britain. The guy deserves a medal.
As I have said before, pretty sure that Ashcroft stuff is opaque / shady, but like a lot of very wealthy people the have access to advice from people far more intelligent than the authorities. Thus, it wouldn’t surprise me if what he and the Tories have been up to may be within the rules (if not in the spirit of the rules). Cameron seems very calm on the issue and the statements from CCHQ always seems to be we took advise, it is definitely within the rules, blah blah blah.
258 - He should be content with his peerage.
257 The bad blood between the Times and Ashcroft certainly means if there was something then they would have found it.
252
Can’t be France, ‘cos its since the Crimea, France was GB’s ally in the Crimea.
259 Labour has three major non-dom donors in the Lords - while that position exists cannot see any action other than smearsand hopes they will take against Ashcroft.
258 - And New Zealand.
And Australia.
262 ?
Question was who had been best ally in major conflicts since Crimea?
I think this is a key passage in the Times investigation,
There seems little doubt Bearwood is trading, having been around for over 20 years (the company sought a guarantee from Lloyds Bank in 1985, according to Companies House). Its accounts show regular flows of small sums of capital in and out of the company. And although there is no legal definition of “trading” under 2000 legislation, the hurdle according to the Inland Revenue is not high: a single transaction such as renting an office or setting up a website is likely to be sufficient. So it would be incredible if Bearwood had broken the one and only rule it needed to fulfil
It seems to me that even if the investigation says that Ashcroft / Tories broke the rules, I think they will get a “see you in court” response. It is obvious that the advice that the Times has received is “you better be careful what you say, Ashcroft inc knows what he is doing when it comes to financial stuff and will kill you in the courts if you alleged too much.”.
262 - What about the Ken Clarke bad blood?
243. France is probably the right answer, though whether we should go back further than 1871 is dependent on whether we’re looking at a two-way alliance - the UK remained neutral during the Franco-Prussian War. And there are the incidents during WWII mentioned above but they don’t really count - France had made her call on that war in 1939.
If colonies and dominions are included, Canada is probably as good a bet as any, being pretty much constant from the Seven Years War onwards. Although they had no independent foreign policy until after WWI, that could be more theoretical than practical. What was to become Canada made its decision to stay loyal in 1776 and again in 1812. As a dominion, and unlike South Africa, there was never any question about its decisions in both 1914 and 1939.
263 - Yes I thought that was interesting that Crick was banging on about paying tax on “all worldwide income” in the UK and straight away I thought I wonder how many high profile people could pass that test. Also with wealthy individuals who own multiple companies and reside in multiple locations, they are never going to pay tax in just one country?
267 tim - went on You Tube earlier and they recommended the following video (probably because of watching US election stuff). Thought of you and your unrequited love.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn7UzxXv8p4
sweet dreams.
269 (cont) also Crick seemed to try to say that the Tories were blocking this. As I read the initial proposal when it was announced, it was that a Lord must pay tax in the UK (which as it appears Ashcroft passes that test), then it was changed to “must pay tax on all income in the UK”.
As previously stated just isn’t feasible, and Labour exactly like that much either (however much Skinner would love it to be the case, as he puts it all those Tory Fat Cat Banker, out my way Lord Myers!)
258.”The key point people miss about Lord Ashcroft is the fact that he is putting so much of his own time and effort into working to help rid us of the Blair/Brown government. He could go anywhere in the world, and just enjoy his wealth. Instead, he is beavering away to help turn around Britain. The guy deserves a medal.”
Richard, hoping to come across a copy of his book on this whole episode. I often wonder if the way he was treated contributed to his single minded determination to see the Conservative party defeat this government at a GE? And yes, I think he deserves our loyalty and a medal.
269.When I heard Crick carping on about this, I simple thought of the Non Doms that have been big donor’s to the Labour party.
Thousands of police to lose jobs as forces feel the pinch
Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, said: “There is no reason why police strengths should reduce given the funding for the police under the three-year grant settlement for the years 2008-09 to 2010-11.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article5793087.ece
The government claims just don’t add up! I don’t think the police “service” have the mentality of a cut throat business, laying off staff at the drop of a hat. So why are they having to do it?
We are told more public spending every year, supposedly supporting the economy through more spending, indication crime is on the rise and set to rise further as recession bites, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime
=
cut numbers of police officers.
266: “It seems to me that even if the investigation says that Ashcroft / Tories broke the rules, I think they will get a “see you in court” response.” Yum! Bring it on, ideally timed to coincide with the election.
274
What was the outcome of the Abraham’s funding investigation?
274.Nick, going to look like very sour grapes for your party come election time IMHO, especially with what we have already seen in recent years. Ashcroft has not just donated to my party for the entire period Labour have been in office, he gives up his time for the party too.
Nick, I actually think given the other things going on if Ashcroft did or didn’t technically break rules probably will have very little impact on the way people will vote. Everybody knows he is bankrolling the Tories, the question is if the money has come through the channel it should have.
Remember Abrahams? That didn’t seem to impact on your boys too much and the scheme he used was a blatant fraud attempting to hide his identity as the donor. BTW, when are we going to get the “independent” report on that? Surely The butcher, the baker and the candle stick maker have completed their investigation by now!
Ashcroft’s book is called “Dirty politics, Dirty Times.”
You don’t have to like him or agree with everything he says to find it an absolutely chilling and terrifying account of how the politics of personal destruction works in this country from someone who was on the receiving end of it.
I am not in the least surprised that, having been through what New Labour and their friends at Times Newspapers threw at him, Michael Ashcroft has become even more of a mortal enemy of the Labour party than he would have otherwise been.
And incidentally, the discipline and focus he has brought to the Conservative target seats campaign has been vastly more valuable to the party than the money he has given.
It is unlikely in the extreme that, having already been the subject of a highly concentrated campaign to ruin his reputation by the full resources of the government spin machine, and survived it, a man as meticulous and capable as Lord Ashcroft would have left himself vulnerable to any further attacks.
The chances of any reputable investigation finding evidence that Lord Ashcroft has broken the rules are even lower than the chances of Damian Green being formally charged with anything. Both are examples of spurious charges being brought by the most morally dubious government this country has had the misfortune to elect for a century, against people who are far more honorable than most of them.
278
The only difference with Ashcroft is that Labour target the marginal seats via the taxpayer with the so called communications allowance.
274. My understanding is that the latest complaint was made by a Labour backbencher. That it might throw up something useful to Labour sometime near the election was no doubt as far from his mind when he made the referral as it is from yours. Considering how much scrutiny the guy has had over the years, I’m not overly concerned, though obviously if something is found then something is found. I doubt it will be on the scale of selling peerages, votes or legislation for cash - or even being widely suspected of it.
That said, I’m not a fan of any donor giving such large sums to any party. Party democracy is at its best when it allies many people to a cause and does not become dependent on just a few. Funding reform needs to be brought in to prevent any individual or organisation from providing the sort of funding that could buy policies or be believed to do so: a cap of £25k per annum should suffice.
279.The Labour party are by far the biggest benefactors of this communications allowance. I hope that it gets the boot if the Conservatives are elected.
Nick Palmer you should be more careful what you wish for.
The Labour party’s ability to shoot itself in the foot with unintended consequences of its brilliant wheezes is one of the most amazing things in the last decade.
Some take a while to come to fruition. Some less so.
But totally reliable.
runnymede you said this on the last thread
But if the Conservatives were in power I very much doubt all of the people crying out about the mistreatment of this individual would be doing so. Sometimes, very nasty things do have to be done to protect the public from exceptionally dangerous people and groups. Deep down, Conservatives know this.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. We supported the international convention against torture, because torture is wrong with no ifs or buts. If we start to prevaricate on this in any way we have no civilisation left to defend and we’re no better than the Nazis.
newsnight from tonight and bbc ten o’clock news from yesterday were pathetic,I don’t mind newsnight investigating ken clarke on the infected blood,but they were plenty more health secretary’s,including labour inwhich newsnight wanted to get off quickly to get to ken clarke.
274 - Nick, you can’t be serious in wanting the utterly spurious Ashcroft claims from your Master’s puppets in the public arena during an election, surely? Really?
I mean what with the massive funding sleaze stories within Labour and all-out troughing by ministers it would backfire massively.
The most you can hope for is an “they’re all at it” impact and, given the general failure of Labour in office, it won’t keep either your party in power or retain your seat for you.
Far too tired to construct an underserved full rebuttal, but coldstone at 113 has clearly failed to understand my post that he quotes.
This makes the T.I.M.’s post 114 as pointless and idiotic as we’ve come to expect.
281
Not just the communications allowance,the government also bungs £ 10 million from the taxpayer to the Trades Unions each year under the guise of the ‘modernisation’ fund,which by coincidence is almost the exact same figure that the Labour party receives from the Trade Unions in political donations.
277 etc: I won’t express an opinion on Ashcroft’s legal position, but a court case discussing the exotic world of Conservative funding just before the election would be entirely welcome, and neither of the lines suggested above (”hey other parties do stuff too” and “Ashcroft is a saintly man for giving us all that money”) would work politically. I agree these things don’t decide elections on their own, though.
Idly curious why tim attracts such venom here, normally reserved only for Mr Draper and LabourList. Even ken, who normally presents himself as an authoritative banker type (if that’s not a contradiction in terms these days), has dropped into tim-baiting mode. Can’t you guys tolerate any dissent at all?
Putin and the Russian army don’t seem to be so friendly these days
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4787089/Vladimir-Putin-faces-rising-anger-from-within-Russian-army.html
288. NPMP: Idly curious why tim attracts such venom here, normally reserved only for Mr Draper
Because 95% of his posts (at least) are tedious, idiotic and moronic.
288 - Nick, what would happen if the commission found a technical breach, but the Tories disputed this on a point of law and won’t give the money back? I assume some sort of court action, but surely that would take months if not years to come before a judge.
Also, from a hypothetical point of view what would stop the Tories being told to give the money back to the company, and then Ashcroft simply writing a new cheque for the money as a donation or as a loan?
290 Also T.I.M. seems to post incessantly.
Almost as if he was paid to do it.
288.”Can’t you guys tolerate any dissent at all?”
I will remember that comment as we devour the memoirs of various Labour politicians/spin doctors once this government becomes a distant memory. I have never noticed you going to far off message as a member of the PLP.
Sam Coates on the Red Box - Spelman: decision today?
“According to the Press Association:
MPs will consider tomorrow whether Tory frontbencher Caroline Spelman should be punished over the “nannygate” affair. The Standards and Privileges Committee is due to discuss a report into Mrs Spelman’s conduct prepared by Commons sleaze watchdog John Lyon.
Such precision over the timing of the discussion of a S&P report is unusual…”
The idea that Ashcroft is a tory vulnerability that the Labour party can exploit is laughable.
If push came to shove the Mail, the Sun, the Telegraph, the Express and Mr Clarkson would portray him as a nation treasure. Yes he might have sidestepped a few taxes, but he didn’t spend the proceeds on coke and hookers he spent it on Victoria Crosses which he donates to the Imperial War Museum.
Are Labour going to fight the next election on an Against Valour ticket?
Good luck with that!
Mike,
Considering your previous post you will no doubt be interested in this.
By-election transparency concern
The counting of the votes after the Glenrothes by-election was not as “transparent” as it could have been, according to the elections watchdog.
The Electoral Commission said the conduct of the count, last November, “went smoothly despite many challenges faced by the electoral administrators”.
However, it said some areas where the votes were being counted and collated were obscured from view.
It also voiced concern over aspects of the arrangements for postal voting.
I think the homogenization of a forum full of diverse opinion and argumentative posters often ready to back their point with numbers, data and money into a tribalist “you guys” is a bit disappointing.
296.I find that article utterly bizarre in some ways to be honest, it contradicts itself throughout.
“In a report on the administration of the by-election, the Electoral Commission said it was run well by Fife Council in difficult circumstances.”
What difficult circumstances???
According to Iain Dale. Boris has been cleared over involvement in the Damian Green saga.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/