Will this add a spring into the steps of Team Gordon?
March 20th, 2009
Could Crosby spell trouble for the Tories on June 4th?
A great scoop overnight for ConHome’s Jonathan Isaby suggests that all might not be plain sailing for the Tories in the Euro Election on June 4th - the final major test at the ballots before the general election.
For Lynton Crosby, the Oz campaign Guru who managed Boris successful bid for the London Mayoralty last year, has now been engaged by Libertas - the Irish-funded political party that is planning to field candidates in every part of the EU in June’s elections - including in the UK where they’ll be competing with the Tories. It was Libertas, it will be recalled, that came to the fore in the successful move to stop Ireland signing up to the Lisbon treaty.
The very idea that the man who engineered the Tory victory in London last year could now be working against the party will give a real boost to Labour campaigners up and down the country this morning and will go down like a lead balloon within the Cameron Quartet
For it is possible that the Euro Elections - already a potential disaster area for Labour - could also impede Cameron’s Conservatives as they seek to build momentum for the big one - the general election.
Even if Crosby contribution to the Libertas effort is minimal in UK terms his assignment with the party has totemic significance.
I’m a big fan of Crosby’s campaigning approach. His great phrase when describing his work is that “Message Matters Most” - something that I totally agree with. There’s little doubt that there’s now the potential for the Libertas proposition to be distilled into something that’s easily remembered that could resonate across Europe. His arrival adds a whole new dimension to the June battles.
The Tories will have painful memories of how five years ago UKIP, fuelled by a seven figure donation from a Yorkshire multi-millionaire, caused it so much damage in the June 2004 elections. Could the same thing happen with Libertas?
It would be great if there as EU election betting. Come on Shadsy!
MessageSpace Advertising
Unlikely
#1 [mirthios March 20th, 2009 at 5:17 am ], I disagree.
Come the next GE I will be voting Tory. But I am a card-carrying English-Democrat and will be voting for English independence at the Euros.
It is more then a protest vote: it’s a marker against thirteen-years of Scottish misrule covered by the blanket of Brussels-based law. I expect the Tories to perform well this July - compared to the other main parties - but there is still a sizable majority that seek independence from foreign-born socialism.
No no no ha ha ha no silly third?
where are all the holocaust deniers, the ‘ZaNu’ shouting tinfoil hat brigade, the thai-addicted swill-peddlar, the secret democracy players?
there are about as many socialists here as usual.
Even if he is some sort of genius, to go from zero to any kind of meaningful level in the polls is not going to happen. Political anoraks may get all excited but I doubt if even one voter in a thousand will ever have heard of him or of Libertas. As usual the Euro vote will be a protest vote and steaming off opportunity.
Don’t know about everybody else, but I’m thinking that today we get to find out what Tories really think about Libertas…
Has Libertas got any candidates yet? There are surely a limited number of people (tries hard not to be insulting) prepared to stand for UKIP, English Democrats, Veritas, etc..
……but I’m thinking that today we get to find out what Tories really think about Libertas……..
Who? Yawn…..
The only people worried about Libertas would be UKIP I would have thought.
Declan Ganley is unlucky in that the UK is currently otherwise occupied with a wish to kick a very unpopular government. Those who hate the Lisbon treaty can anyway vote UKIP, and if it is still not ratified by the general election the Conservatives will kill the treaty anyway.
The proliferation of splinter groups along various points of the EU-sceptic spectrum could simply confuse voters to the detriment of all of them.
Not much of an EU-sceptic spectrum, more an anti Euro dustbin.
The fragmenting of the “gadlfly and fruitcake” vote can only help the Conservatives, I would have thought!
If the Conservatives get a better message across in a better way then why worry?
#6 [by Icarus March 20th, 2009 at 6:36 am ], There are surely a limited number of people (tries hard not to be insulting) prepared to stand for UKIP, English Democrats, Veritas, etc..
We have the Liberal Democrats as role-models, don’t you’se know….
6 - There are an unlimited supply of fruitcakes. Have you not travelled by bus lately?
Can’t see Libertas being more than a fringe factor though. More of their votes will come from UKIP - this has the potential to help all major parties because Libertas won’t win seats themselves but might just lose one or two for UKIP which will be mopped up by another party.
And the Conservative message on Europe is….?
Totally OT but is anybody else struggling to get PB to load properly in recent history?
I have no trouble accessing the main page, but the individual comments pages regularly refuse to load, or only partly load, especially once more than a 100 comments have been posted.
Switching browsers makes no difference and pages that only part load will somewhat bizarrely stick at the same point in Internet Explorer and Firefox (at comment 90 out of 450 for example).
14 - In Europe not Run by Europe!
I have been having trouble with loading Google and other sites yesterday - OK at the moment - but PB has worked well throughout.
A browser that deleted all the comments I didn’t want to read would be useful!
Was RikW referring to you at [10]? Can you sue?
Have reached Chapter 4 in the Genesis Secret. Seems to roll along quite well - a thousand times better written than a Dan Brown.
Gadfly. Are you on a Blackberry? If so you need you load mini.opera software to compress the pages. Mike has added some softwear to the site which requires miniopera for mobile devices to access the comments thread.
I loaded this up yesterday and it’s working fine but I haven’t been able to post a comment yet for some reason. Anyone got any ideas?
It’s all getting rather “People’s Front of Judaea” among the Eurosceptics, isn’t it? If “Message Matters Most”, Lynton Crosby has an uphill struggle to explain to the British public why Libertas’ strand of Euroscepticism should be preferred over the anti-EPP Conservatives, the “everybody out” UKIP and the thuggish nationalist BNP. Libertas’ USP is all just a bit too academic for voters, I would have thought.
Me? I’ll be voting Lib Dem.
Morning all
Steve Richards article in the Independent makes interesting reading, I wonder if its being actively thought about as he suggests..PB would be a lot quieter place …..
The Euro-elections will definitely be a bit odd. The fact it is electing members to a Parliament voters generally have little interest in means it will have a low turnout and lots of postal votes.
I reckon turnout will only be around 25%. And, given the Tory rating in the polls, they are clearly going to come top and get lots of protest voters. Perhaps 30% for the Tories? Labour will probably get around 20%. The LDs won’t do well, since there will be so many other alternative lists those who don’t like either main party will be able to go for instead. Maybe they will get 12-13%.
I agree that, unless a big donor comes along and gives them a lot of money, Libertas won’t make that much of a splash. Their existance, though, will be a challenge for UKIP. I suspect UKIP will do worse than last time.
18. Softwear? Must have been added while he padded about in his woolen slippers at 4 in the morning.
2. Fluffy - I was answering the question “Will this add a spring into the steps of Team Gordon?” rather than “Could Crosby spell trouble for the Tories on June 4th?”.
To inject a spring into the steps of Camp Gordon would take a tin tack in the sandals.
As a point of clarification, is Lynton Crosby running the Libertas campaign in Britain or in the wider EU?
19 - antifrank - “Me? I’ll be voting Lib Dem.”. Another one who can’t make up his mind?
Seriously, will Libertas have any impact. The three things you probably need for a political party the most are time, money, and people-power. Libertas have none of these.
25 - This is one subject where I have a clear view. We are better in the EU than out of it. The Conservative policy on the EU is that it would rather be in a different EU. When one points out to its supporters that we are actually in the presently constituted version and 26 other member states would not all be immediately biddable to change it to the version that the Conservatives would favour, all you get is white noise when you try to establish what the Conservatives would do if their wizzo plans didn’t meet with universal acclaim in the other EU capitals. The decision by David Cameron to withdraw from the EPP shows that this incoherence on EU issues goes right to the top.
Since it is a prerequisite that I vote for a party that is in favour of our membership of the EU and I would rather drink hemlock than vote Labour at present, the Lib Dems get my X.
“The time to edit your comment has elapsed.”
How long do you get?
If Lynton Crosby is as brilliant a strategist as is being suggested, aren’t his talents being somewhat wasted on a party as virtually invisible as Libertas?
Why don’t all the Euro Loons start their own individual parties?
Thats four is it?
i think its about 5 mins
I assumed the site would be overrun with discussion of the Telegraph 45% story - or has that already happened?
32:I think everyone is waking up to the realisation that taxes in the near future will be higher, rather than lower.
antifrank at 7:43am:
I totally agree with much of that. In normal circumstances I’m generally a Conservative voter and on pretty much all other issues I’m a great admirer of David Cameron. However, on the issue of the EU I’m sorry to say that the decision to leave the EPP makes it totally and utterly impossible for me to vote Conservative at the EU parliament election. They’re looking like fringe nutters on this issue.
My vote on this occasion will have to go to the Liberal Democrats instead as enthusiasm for the EU is a prerequisite for me vote too.
I’ll certainly return to the Conservative fold for the general election but until the party gets real on EU matters and shows some enthusiasm for the European project then I can’t support them at EU level.
Rant over - off to work now.
34:But thats the point isn’t it. The european project (which is already creaking) as dictated by France and Germany, or the european project as the vast majority of the british public would like it to be.
34 Fine rant, Steven. Enjoy your day.
27 - I believe that the LibDems are in favour of reform of Europe, and are members of neither of the two major Parliamentary voting blocks.
34, 35 If the wheels come off the european project, then it is surely better to have distanced ourselves from the architects. Will the wheels come off? Certainly, in one way or another.
There was a lot of enthusiasm among the Tories on here for leaving the EPP. However, the only two people so far to put their heads above the parapets on here to identify it as a vote-influencing decision have both said that they are as a result voting Lib Dem rather than Tory.
Curious, don’t you think?
I’ll vote Con at the GE but Libertas should be taken with some seriousness:
1.there’s no such thing as “the UKIP vote”. What there is is a rich seam of discontent in Britain, Ireland and the continent – and it’s there to be freely mined by a pan-EU EUsceptic party;
2.five and a bit years ago few people had heard of UKIP (though they had been around for the best part of a decade). They broke into public view through their possession of a certain charismatic and the campaigning skills of Dick Morris. Does Libertas have similar properties? Probably.
3.It’s very hard to pigeonhole or demonise Libertas. The ‘little Englander’ jibe clearly doesn’t work and neither do they fall neatly into the right-left spectrum.
4.They already have battle honours.
Whole stack of bad headlines for our prospective Nobel Laureate this morning -
‘Treasury let stricken Northern Rock issue toxic loans’
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5941790.ece
‘Brown accused over bank warnings’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/069577d8-14d9-11de-8cd1-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F069577d8-14d9-11de-8cd1-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fuk
‘G20 summit: Gordon Brown’s G20 dream fades amid European hostility’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5941616.ece
Maybe the Libertas message will strike a chord with a few who choose not to vote UKIP, but believe that changing the European Union to a free-trade bloc is not eccentric, but, er, sensible.
But as the EU hierarchy is so sweet on political integration, and shows no signs of listening to its voters, we’d be better off out.
That’s the message that matters most.
I think it is unlikely that Libertas will get anywhere even with this guy. I think part of UKIP’s success in 2004 was the celebrity endoresements that they gave them dream publicity. Unless Libertas can garner endorsements similar to the kind UKIP got then I don’t think they will go far. I also don’t think they will go far in Europe either.
27/34. I think the exact opposite about both the Tories move on the EPP and the Euro elections than you two.
39. I’ll put my head above the parapet: I’m voting Tory in the EU elections June *because* they are leaving the EPP. Otherwise, I’d vote UKIP.
Nothing angers me more than people claiming efforts to reform the EU from within are “fringe nutter” - I had to bite myself to stop myself saying something rude to you.
The EPP was centre-right, but also a ridiculously pro-federalist, anti-reform party with nothing new to say and it stifled and suppressed criticism.
If, and believe they can, the Tories can establish a moderate, mainstream eurosceptic grouping the EU parliament (MER - Movement for European Reform, or whatever…) then we can use that block of MEPs to effectively challenge some of the more “nutty” (see, I can use that word too) federalist proposals within the EU that currently go unchallenged. What the EPP want would render member states less significant in Brussels than Arkansas is in Washingston.
That is entirely inconsistent with the Conservative belief of a sensibly balanced and moderate europe which recognises the limits of EU integration.
Someone has to make the jump first and it is the British Conservatives. Others will follow - what we’re doing is called *leadership*.
Antifrank/Steven - you are wrong, wrong; WRONG.
re 16. From a standard PC the best browser to use is Google Chrome.
From a mobile device use Opera Mini which is streets ahead of anything in the smart-phone area. The firm has versions for just about every kind of phone you can think of.
Phillip Hammond just gave a really good interview on Sky. Often he doesn’t interview as well as he could but he certainly nailed it today.
re 35. For the general election I’m in a key LAB>CON marginal and the pressure will be on Lib Dems to vote tactically. I’m sure our vote will be squeezed but I would never go with the Tories because of their approach to the EU. For me it’s clincher.
If Ken Clarke had been Tory leader I would have found the tactical issue that much harder.
42. Lets face it they were asleep on the job. Fred the Shred was fired for trashing one company never mind a country - in any sane world Brown would be long gone.
Unfortunately for Labour and the single issue parties, the Euro elections will just be an opportunity to kick Brown - for those that can be bothered to vote.
It is interesting that Libertas have enrolled Crosby, but if they are going for the Euro elections, they’re leaving it too late to make an impact. Suspect Ganley is playing a longer game.
On the Euros, I can count more than 20 parties of the top of my head that will be contesting. Not sure if this is a good or bad thing.
Something to mull over the kippers this morning,from my buddy”Old Holborn”
IMHO the LibDems could exploit this situation
Why bother voting Tory At the Next Election
The Tories are just another Statist party, wedded to the idea of high taxes and a large State.
There is absolutely no point taking the risk of setting up in business, employing people (because that is the only way back from this recession) if the State is going to confiscate half of your earnings. What is the point ?
Profits are derived from taking a risk, the Government wants half of the profit but does not want to take half of the risk. When it gets to the stage where even the Tories no longer understand that it is the wealth producing part of the country that underpins the bloated State.
The Tories are a shoe in for the next election, because everybody is sick of Labour, but remember the Tories in charge of the economy the last time. Going into the ERM for political reasons at too high a rate against the DM, not on economic grounds.
This will not be a seismic shift in economic policy, it will be the Obamarisation of Parliament. Different bloke waving at the traffic, same car crash
LS 6:41 am “The proliferation of splinter groups along various points of the EU-sceptic spectrum could simply confuse voters to the detriment of all of them.”
Nail on the head.
Some Conservatives maybe disappointed but unless Libertas is able to spend millions it will have little impact. It is competing for the “protest vote” which is a field full of rivals. That is one reason that the LDs are also going to struggle badly. Libertas is also starting far too late in the day with an unknown brand, to have much impact in the UK, it will be different in Ireland etc.
In the longer term I actually welcome Libertas as they may get breakthroughs elsewhere in Europe and could form useful allies in new European groupings.
For Mike,stjohn and the Peters etc.
We have monement at last on the Overall Maj. mkt ! I finally Layed my 3.6 and next stop 3.55 for NOM.
No huge sums involved but all the money this week has been against the Conservatives and towards NOM/Labour.Two of the more bizarre bets struck were when someone Layed my 1.57 CON 2010 and Backed LAB 6.4 2010.
On the Most Seats the Tories are 1.26 and rising and Brown/Cameron is firming up a little in the Party Leaders mkt. despite the attentions of Phillipe Magnan.
I thought your Polls were splendid, Mike, and they deserved even more discussion.
Could Crosby cause trouble for Labour on June 4th ? The Oz guru has been spotted at the Brussels HQ of Libertas. Could the man who materminded Boris’ victory be organising the anti-Europe campaign to the advantage of the UK conservatives, thus avoiding the UKIP problem of former elections ?
re 53. But the polls were “voodoo” polls - anybody could take part.
47 I watched Philip Hammond on DP yesterday and I agree he is presenting himself much better. Handling Andrew Neil is a difficult job and Hammond did well. The problem Hammond has is that he has been too reasonable and allowed others to dominate. Standing up to Brillopad was a small revelation for me.
56
He has in the past allowed Yvette Cooper to talk over him. Though to be fair Cooper does prattle on in a breathless monologue.
55.As I have said three times at least I find it really significant that so few thought the Tories would top 375.Also very interesting as Richard Nabavi mentioned yesterday was that 82% thought Gordon Brown WOULD contest the next GE.
I fully expected a bias in the other direction.
Minor response to previous thread:
I didn’t watch much of This Week at all. I was interested in their take on PMQs but when I saw that the quota-pleasing airhead was doing that piece I knew it would probably be worthless.
I miss Jenny Scott. A better presenter, and she really knew her stuff about the economy.
Just a couple of thoughts:
Isn’t Libertas the first new political party set up on a specifically pan-European basis? I thought the EU wanted to encourage this type of event. I struggle to understand why a nationalistic euro-sceptic would want to support a specifically pan-European movement.
If Libertas do win a few seats on Ireland and elsewhere it might help Cameron. His new political grouping – centre-right, not confessional and wanting a more decentralised EU –needs MEPs from six countries. Libertas might supply a few.
57, the advantages of a small brain being it requires a much smaller amount of oxygen?
These foreign political campaign gurus, coming over here taking the bread out of the mouths of native born British ones, makes yer sick.
58
I can’t see the tories getting over 375 seats unless there is meltdown, not just in labour, but also the libdems. Unlikely.
Libertas, Veritas, UKIP, etc. They are all trying to cut themselves a slice of the same pie. The pie won’t get any bigger, so they will only dilute the number of seats that will be won by the “no to Europe” part of the political spectrum. I can only see UKIP winning seats this time round, and considerably less than last time.
I think one needs to think about this in the following ways:
First question:
Will the Euro-election floating vote be a general protest against:
1) The government
2) Europe
1) is good for the Tories, but 2) is bad for them. The balance of opinion above is 2), but we don’t know how representative that is.
Second question:
How well-informed or how much they care to be informed about the stances of the various parties, so do they think:
1) Libertas is anti-Europe
2) Libertas is in-Europe, but for reform.
If it is 1), it is good for the Conservatives and bad for UKIP/BNP/ED. If it’s 2) they should draw support away from the Conservatives.
Into this mix, what is the message that Lynton Crosby will be pushing - and what is the message sent by the Conservatives.
48. You are also wrong Mike.
Clearly you detest Brown.
Are you saying you’d prefer another 5 years of Brown *and* Labour in government just because of your “well, I’m not playing with you then” attitude to anyone who doesn’t agree 100% with your unreformed views on the EU?
It seems very petulant and childish for a man of your intelligence.
The Conservative position is a common-sense balance between participation in a single-market and cooperating with our neighbours without taking EU integration too far. A position shared by 65%+ of the population. There are limits to everything you know. A European army and police force, EU income tax, abolition of national veteos, uniform electoral law, common equality and employment laws and a single EU seat at the UN.
If you seriously are in favour of all those EU powers, I don’t know why you care who’s in charge of the British government.
I could see Crosby sharpening Libertas’ message and this having a knock-on effect to both the Labour and Conservative campaigns in terms of their commitments on the Lisbon Treaty and European integration generally.
If Libertas were clever (and I am a Tory so I would say this), Crosby should position the party as a Eurosceptic party that is not of the Right and go after the Labour vote. There are lots of working class Labour voters that are Eurosceptic but would not for “tribal” or cultural reasons ever vote Conservative.
What if Libertas etc are able to get the media focused on Europe for the weeks leading into the elections? Remember that Ken Clarke has submitted himself to the party line.
Who wins/loses if the voters are continually reminded about it? The focus of Libertas came from opposition to the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland. In Parliament Labour pushed it through with abstainers in the LDs (commons) and support from the LDs (Lords). Both parties maybe perceived by the voters to have broken their GE promise of a referendum.
If that happens then the circa 80% of voters that did want a referendum may vote accordingly. The Conservatives could even gain from this….
Particularly if the fragmented parties take votes off Lab and the LDs but do not themselves get to the threshold of a seat.
We could even see the LDs losing a large chunk (1/3) of their previous vote but ending up with only 1 or 2 less seats because of the fragmentation.
URW. The key point I took from Richard Nabavi’s twinned 4/7 bet was this.
How should we rate the 3 outcomes Tories <326, Tories 326-374, Tories 375+? The middle option is clear favourite in my view. I would go 20%, 46.64%, 36.36% or 4/1, 11/10 and 7/4. Bookies effectively go 36.36% 27.27% 36.36% or 7/4, 8/3, 7/4.
Why I like Richard’s bet so much is that it compresses all the value in a Tory overall majority into the likeliest band. I think they have got Tory overall majority wrong and Tory landslide about right. So they offer odds of 8/3 about what I regard an 11/10 shot.
If there is such a term the “% value ratio” here is 46.64/27.27 = 1.7. I think this equates to backing a winner on Betfair at 1.7 or a 70% return on your money. This all assumes my view on the % outcomes is accurate and that the bookies are wrong. But that’s betting isn’t it?.
Casino Royale 9:02 am. You make a good point about positioing. We know from most of the polls that the Labour and LD vote is more soft than the Conservatives. In both instances 30% to 40% of all their voters are anti-Europe. That is a large potential group of voters to attract. I just think that Libertas will need the media to have a Euro frenzy.
48 curious that someone who says Europe doesn’t matter votes on the basis that it does.
Or is it that it doesn’t matter if its a Euroscepic voting on that basis?
Seriously Europe matters when its the deal breaker, it might not be a Top 10 issue in most polls most of the time but can be enough to tip voters one way or another.
60 Libertas claims to be pro-Europe, but pro-Reform. But even if you were anti-EU I can see the value in setting up a cross-Europe party. Just because you are a EUsceptic doesn’t mean you don’t see the value in international cooperation.
I find it strange that otherwise EUphiles cannot apparently tell the difference between being in the EU and passively (or even enthusiastically) going along with everything it does to us (which as far as I can tell is the Labour and LibDem position) and being in Europe but disagreeing with its policies and/or organisation.
Could be beneficial for the GE. Libertas creams off a few Tory votes, Broon spins the results as a disaster for the Conservatives, his stupid party believes him…and keeps him in post where he can go down to a crushing defeat in June 2010.
73, I do think Libertas may take some Tory votes but most of their support will come from the festering carcass of UKIP (some of which will also go the Tories’ way). I imagine the Tories will see their share rise somewhat.
58 URW - the only threat to Brown’s leadership position at the next GE, apart from issues relating to his own health, is a total debacle in the Euro elections and with Labour’s vote continuing to hold above 30%, this looks increasingly unlikely.
Interesting though that Hills continue to offer the Tories winning a less than 100 seat overall majority at 4/7. Repeating my recent comments, IMO this is THE value political bet at present.
If you disagree, feel free to take the opposing odds of 5/4 with the same bookmaker.
Richard Littlejohn in the Mail writes an excellent and amusing parody on D-Day under this government and the armed foprces restricted by Health & Safety, Human Rights, Equality & Diversity etc. It is amusing but the truisms are so sad as it illustrates how far we have declined since 1944
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1163307/LITTLEJOHN-This-BBC-Home-Service-Keep-calm-carry-dont-panic-D-Day-cancelled.html
69 stjohn.Pretty much agree with all of that.In a much sharper sense the key is the ‘375+ NO’ because it won’t last forever and the other side of the proposition is on a mild drift…..which makes it even better !
The ONLY downside is the tieing up of funds and of course the bet might lose.
52,64: As a Europhile, the more Eurosceptic parties stand, the better I like it - with a bit of luck they’ll all chew each other under the threshold to get any seats. If there’s some interest in the process, it could divert some Tories too, though I’d think not very many. But Libertas seems unlikely to get far:
- It sounds like Veritas - Eurosceptics have been there, got the T-shirt
- It has zero well-known leaders, not even Kilroy-Silk
- The name sounds obscure, possibly foreign (hardly a recommendation for this voter group)
I’d think UKIP will still lead the pack in this sector - the name on the tin is clearer.
We do have a bit of evidence on what will guide votes - there was a recent YouGov which IIRC produced 70% saying they’d vote on normal national party preference, 20-odd % on European issues.
By the way, MPs are getting mildly spammed (a few messages a day) by Germans with identical messages saying the Lisbon Treaty is sort of like the Third Reich, so don’t vote to ratify it. They don’t seem aware that we already have, or perhaps they think we’re Irish MPs. Any idea where it’s coming from?
Unexciting by-elections last night - Tories performing OK after a few weeks of poorish results, Labour holding the one seat it was defending without difficulty, LibDems doing nothing special, and various complicated movements between Ratepayers, Independents, etc.
75
That is a good value bet. But it may get better after the Euros, which are usually a farce.
The real significance of this move is about Lynton Crosby himself. The Tories would be extremely well-advised to obtain his services again for the next general election. Lynton Crosby has probably been unwise in selling his services to Libertas (unless the Tories have already told him that they won’t be using him at the next election - that seems unlikely). However, the question for the Tories is: are they going to cut off their noses to spite their own faces?
If the Tories have any sense, they will ignore this temporary defection. However, political parties are not repositories of sense and if the Tories do as I expect now veto Lynton Crosby’s appointment to run their next general election campaign, that is probably the best news that Labour and the Lib Dems have had in months.
66 Banging post my man. Well said.
I see Conhome is giving prominence to DC’s speech in which he raises the possibility of higher taxes for the wealthy.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/03/will-the-conservatives-really-go-along-with-labours-45p-tax-rate.html
Could be some interesting comments on that one.
78
So there are German eurosceptics getting all hot under the collar? That’s an interesting development. Wonder if they are linked to the new left party.
I don’t think the Tories will be overly concerned about this….
Brown was probably running around Downing St like a grinning nutter when he heard the news - We all know how partisan he is - But I don’t expect much benefit for Labour here. The big news from the euro (and local) elections will once again be Labour/Browns horrendous vote share.
Sort of on topic… when I looked yesterday Morus’s shiny new Party hadn’t managed to find a single candidate in either London or Scotland, and the leading candidate in the East of England had 25 votes or so.
Should we send him our deepest sympathy?
I rarely post, but the pro-EU comments have forced me out of hiding.
The EU empire’s ruling elite have almost no link to democracy. The EU’s arcane election rules, and proportional representation, make it almost impossible to get rid of corrupt MEPs.
The Council of Ministers make most of the significant political decisions, and are a convenient smokescreen behind which the national governments hide their activities. They force through decisions and policies that would get them kicked out of office if announced in their own legislature.
The Commission is so remiss in its role that its accounts have been rejected for (I think) the last 15 years.
The EU was dreamt up by a bunch of WW2 survivors, who were prepared to do almost anything to avoid a repetition (including abandoning democracy, good representative government, etc.)
The EU was sold to the British public by a cross-Party spectrum of British politicians,, at least some of whom knew that they were lying.
The EU has so many internal inconsistencies that it will inevitably generate internal opposition. (Cf. British rule in Ireland.) The British Empire was among the better run ones in history, yet in time it dissolved, because all empires die eventually.
So, in the long-term, we have choice, limit the onward march towards the looming disaster called Euro-federalism; or pass the baton to subsequent generations, and hope the EU dissolves peacefully, rather than in flames.
You don’t have to be a nutter to oppose the EU – it’s called common sense.
75. PfP. How does your view square with your exhortaion to all and sundry to sell Labour at 200 seats?
Is Crosby going to run the pan-EU campaign or just the UK bit?
Not sure why people think Libertas will take anti-EU votes except through confusing people. They seem more like a midway point between Tory and UKIP to me and more likely to take votes from there. I think Crow’s anti-EU party is much more likely to be a significant factor if he can get hold of any money / airtime, which if it’s really an anti-BNP thing I imagine he will get lots of both.
The evidence for this appears to be ….
…. Lynton “has been spotted at the Brussels HQ of Libertas”.
This looks a bit flimsy.
Without wishing to gainsay the story, if it is true, wouldn’t you expect Libertas to put out a press release?
I thought Libertas were generally pro-EU (moreso than the Tories) but anti-Lisbon. So they can be attacked by both UKIP and the Tories for not being Eurosceptic enough.
OT
But what were the by-election results last night?
82 - I thought that Cameron’s speech and interviews yesterday were the most encouraging things I have heard from a Tory in years and years. I was very impressed. And if the inevitable tax rises after the next election are targetted at the highest earners that also will be excellent. Politically and morally it would be appalling if middle and lower income workers were asked to pay more proportionately than the highest earners. So even if this does not play well in the Tory Party it wil play well in the country as a whole. And it willcompletely redefine the Tory Party as well. This could well be Cameron’s Clause 4 moment.
My, my the world is changing. In 20 years time, we may just look back on this terrible time and conclude it was one of the best things that ever happened to this country, as politics is redefined and left and right become obsolete terms.
It is also interesting today to read about the resistance Obama is meeting from many European leaders to all kinds of things he wants to do - from the stimulus to the surge in Afghanistan. Surprise, surprise, there is only one European country on his side. How much longer are we going t have to read about how much Obama dislikes Britain, I wonder.
Watching the effects of the subject of the EU on Tories is fascinating. It’s like watching the effects of catnip on cats: it excites them, repels them and makes them act completely out of character. It does not, however, make them more electable.
Iain Dale argues this morning that the Michael Crick suggestion of Lynton Crosby personally defecting to Libertas is mischeivous.
He points out that Lynton is a consultant who makes money by advising people on how to win elections, and argues that
“he and his company need to earn a living. To suggest that he, personally, has defected is idiotic. He is as much a Conservative today, as he was a month ago.”
URL for the post is
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/03/why-michael-crick-is-wrong-on-lynton.html
I strongly suspect Iain is right. I also think that if Libertas do get any traction they will do more damage to UKIP than the Conservatives, and are unlikely to help Gordon Brown.
Car production down 59% year on year for Feb
84 - I love this Brown is partisan line some Tores on here take. It is, in itself, profoundly partisan. The simple fact is that all politicians are partisan and look for party advantage at every opportunity.
Why, I wonder, are the Toriesnot making detailed suggestions about how to deal with this recession?Is it because they are worried that Labour might nick their ideas? If so, what is this if not being partisan?
It doesnt have to be tax per se that goes up, it could be ee’s NI (above a certain earnings level) or vat which the wealthy will pay disproportionately more for.
96
Ouch.
96
I have only seen one new 09 plate so far, cant say I have been looking that hard, but in times past they would heve been two a penny.
94 Watching the effects of the subject of the EU on EUphiles is fascinating. It makes them roll over for a tummy tickle.
94 - I am instinctively pro-European, but having spent quite a bit of time in and arund Brussels for my work I cannot help but be incredibly dubious about anything that gives that place more power. The Commission is a self-perpetuating elite so far removed from the realities of life that it has to be seen to be believed.
92. Four seats were up. Three Conservtative held. One Labour held. Conservatives held all three. Labour held their one seat.
A much better set of local results for the Tories (all of which mean means absolutely nothing for the national picture) which is why, I assume Mark Senior didn’t post last night?
Morning all. Just a quick catch-up on the threads before heading out into the beautiful blue Parisienne skies to Versailles (The Good Lady Marquee Mark is looking for a little weekend retreat…)
Brown to be en-Nobelled? For his services to economics? LOL. He has to beat Mugabe first (on the assumption that this is for providing a control experiment on what not to do with an economy….)
Crosby and Libertas. Why should Labour be rejoicing? Surely his experience for Boris was in how to press Labour voters’ buttons…
Au revoir!
103
Mark Senior was notable by his absence reading thro last nights thread
It seems the Germans are giving Gordo the De Gaulle “NON”. The G20 is unravelling.
http://www.order-order.com/2009/03/germans-say-nein-herr-brown-to-more-fiscal-stimulus/
98 - It depends what the VAT is charged on. As long as the better off demonstrably make a proprtionately bigger contribution than middle and low income earners it’s fine by me. And I say that as a high earner who would definitely be affected.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that a real commitment to that would make me almost inclined to give the Tories a chance. I would have to see it in action first, of course. But if I did, then who knows? How could anyone on the left not support it?
87 stjohn - Firstly I think labour’s prospects have improved marginally of late, secondly it’s all about value (as you well know) and thirdly it’s quite possible for Labour to win fewer than 200 seats and for the Tories to achieve under a 100 majority, eg:
Con……..370
Lab……..190
LibDem……47
SNP………20
Plaid……..5
NI……….18
Any spring in the step will be crushed by the NAO report that says Gordon Brown ignored another warning that the system would crash.
And it must be bad when Robert Peston puts the boot in…
“Of course it’s embarrassing for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling that a spotlight has been shone again on their misjudgements. But we’ve known for many months that they were wrong on these very big issues.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/03/rock_blew_whistle_on_economic.html
re 104. I think that what Crosby did for the Tories last year was to get non-voters from previous elections in the outer suburbs to to turn out and vote for BJ.
Remember more people voted for Ken in May 2008 than in either of his previous mayoral elections.
Most voting changes are about turnout not about switching.
104 - Labour’s vote went up in the last London mayoral election. Crosby was vry good at getting dormant Tories into the polling booths. That said I think his “magic” is over-rated. Boris was always going to win in London and the Tories were hardly magnificent in 2005.
102 - Bismarck said “laws are like sausages: it is better not to see them being made”. That is as true in Westminster as in Brussels. The jaw-dropping complacency, arrogance and incompetence of our home-grown representatives rivals anything that can be conjured up in the EU Commission.
No party in the UK, not even the Lib Dems, is suggesting that the EU doesn’t need reform. The argument is what reform, how to go about it and how to work with 26 other countries to achieve it. And on those last two questions, the Tories have no answers at all. UKIP has more intellectual honesty.
103
Cheers.
112 the results are on vote 2007
53/69/75 URW/stjohn/PfP: If you look at the combined bet, as stjohn says it gives an implied probability of 27% for 325-375. That’s quite extraordinary for such a big range which covers the consensus view (66% in the survey). It is therefore extraordinary value now; if views shift there should be time to correct by a saver bet on either the high end or the low end. [I've actually got a more complex position which includes individual constituency bets and bets on the LibDems, so to some extent I've already covered some of the extremes at good odds - for example, Con to win Redditch at 1.67, which is no longer available.] If the combined bet is such a good deal, clearly one or both of the constituent bets must be mispriced, so IMO it’s not a good idea to wait.
Herbert P Snr @ 51 “Profits are derived from taking a risk, the Government wants half of the profit but does not want to take half of the risk.”
Which government are you looking at? Surely not New Labour which has thrown billions at the private sector for management consultancy and failed IT projects, and whose PFI gives all the profit to the private sector but leaves the poor bloody tax payer shouldering the risks.
I doubt that on a personal level the Tories will think any less of Crosby because he is working for Libertas. They know he is a pro. His history suggest that if he is working for them he sees them as a right of centre party, perhaps.
Will he or Libertas have much effect on the Tory vote. Unlikely because, as others have said, this is all a little late for any real impact and it looks more like positioning than real vote gathering for June.
I have to agree with Nick Palmer that the voters will mostly be influenced by national factors especially as the locals are at the same time. Another whizzo idea that is going to go wrong for the Clown Collective.
104. MM. If your good lady is after a French retreat she could do worse than look at Moscow.
88 I spotted this story early yesterday afternoon and as far as I can see he is running a pan-European campaign. As I said last night on the last thread, he will probably be getting paid far more for this “gig” than the Tories will be spending so of course he will sell his company’s services to the highest bidder.
I would expect if the Tories want his services for the general election the papers have already been signed.
With only 10 weeks unti the Euro elections, this will make virtually no difference and will certainly harm us no more than UKIP did last time. I expect that the explosion of parties standing will result in the long unwieldy ballot papers we faced in 2007 for the Scottish general election. The result of course was vast numbers of spoilt ballot papers, partly due to 2 different forms being attached but the longer the ballot the better chance for confusion and spoiling.
As for the European Parliament post June, I for one am very pro-EU. One of my businesses has grown out of EU expansion and this has resulted on me being placed on at least one total nutter’s “hate” list online as a traitor etc.
However I am not a federalist and I do not support membership of the Euro. Indeed I suspect most Germans no longer support the Euro. I trade in both the pound and the euro and have no difficulty doing so, like a great many other British businesses.
As someone who opposes a federal, more integrated EU and totally opposes a collective EU foreign or defence policy, I can only oppose our continued membership of the EPP. Understandably since its largest grouping come from the likes of the CDU/CSU and other Christian Democratic parties, in most political issues we are on the same wavelength. For examplpe I would sooner Angela Merkel was our PM than Gordon Brown and indeed a Scotsman is predicted to be the next CDU Chancellor of Germany. However since most of the mainland European Christian Democratic parties want to see a more integrated EU, closer to a federal United States of Europe, I look forward to seeing the fruits of William Hague’s negotiations with other centre/right parties and the creation of a new grouping which will in most things I expect work closely with the EPP.
Anyway I’m off to try and get some more folks off Gordon’s dole queues so catch you all later.
So to go back to last night’s discussion. there’s only one hospital>/a> which is running poorly is there tim, Southam?
One does wonder what Monitor actually monitors.
Also this from the National Audit Office on Northern Rock.
I just can’t seem to get rid of the picture of whelk stalls in my mind.
117 Very good!
And with that, I shall away like Napoleon!
118 - The argument was not about poorly performing hospitals, it was about how far targets (and by extension the government) were to blame for the 400 deaths in Stafford.
stjohn/PfP/Richard Nabavi.
On a seperate issue I have confirmation that the Sell of the Tory Spread at 350 came from my Forum.
I wouldn’t take overmuch notice of it even though the individuals concerned are in the very top echelons.
Richard N.Every bet this week (almost) has been against the Tories/for NOM/Labour so in my opinion it is totally safe to ignore the 1.57 for a Tory Overall and try for better.
On topic: Yes, it may give a small boost to the morale of Gordon’s team. But it would be a big mistake to think it will have any real impact, as some basic research on Libertas will show.
111, Cameron at the next EU summit.
Cameron: ‘We want to re-negotiate our membership of the EU’
Other 26 countries: ‘f*** that’
Cameron: ‘erm… er…’
re 20 I would be voting Liberal Democrat, but as I’ll be faced with a closed list again, I’ll be voting for all the rest (except Labour) as well.
Mike Smithson @ 109 “[Crosby got] non-voters from previous elections in the outer suburbs to to turn out and vote for BJ.”
Bob Crow helped. There were a lot of disrupted tube journeys in the run-up to polling day.
Newspapers can save money on polls by checking the train times. Look what happened to John Major after he ballsed up the railways. Commuters’ votes count.
121 URW - Thanks for the info. I think the other end is more vulnerable.
103 I was out last night GIN hence no post , has the Chiltern Woods result been poblished , I haven’t seen it indeed I thought they were not counting till this morning . Yes the Conservative results were a little better this week although they polled fewer votes in Larkswood than in 2002 and fewer votes in Leek than in 2003 so still no rush by voters to take the opportunity to vote Conservative .
URW the top echelons of what? Your forum?
128 Witan.No ! I mean the whole wide world !
re 118/120 and it’s not just the West Midlands, but Cornwall too.
123 -
Cameron: ‘We want to re-negotiate our membership of the EU’
Other 26 countries: ‘f*** that’
Cameron: ‘fine, we’ll do it anyway. You need us more than we need you.’
114 “it’s not a good idea to wait”
Richard - taking the two bets together, I certainly agree. But of the two elements, it’s the Ladbrokes’/Betfair 4-7 on a Tory maj, which may weaken a touch and Hills’ under 100 maj which may shorten similarly, just my opinion of course.
127 - One assumes turnout in a by-election is down compared with a regular election so total vote numbers would more often be down than up. Looking at share the Conservative increased share in all but one of the by-elections last night.
123, doesn’t matter if they disagree.
Cameron can veto everything he can to bugger up everything he can. Or he could hold a referendum here with an option such as: “Do you support the government’s aim to renegotiate and if it proves impossible would you like us to leave the EU?”
It would be fun to see how EU politics responds to democracy. And because it’s a British referendum they wouldn’t be able to run one themselves asking over and over until they got the right answer.
127. ConHome reporting for Chiltern Wood Con 79%, Lib Dem 21%.
125
Though as you mentioned yesterday Mike, there are a fewer commuters these days…..
URW you mean St Obamarama is betting on Tory seats?
Just posting to reassure those Tories on here worried about Camerons speech yesterday on tackling the wealthy.
The priority remains the wealthiest estates.
He suggested he would stop relatively high earners receiving tax credits. But an aide insisted the party was not moving to reverse its 2007 pledge to cut inheritance tax - requiring £3.1bn of public spending…..An aide said: “This speech is not some signal that we are going to discard our pledge to cut inheritance tax. Sharing the proceeds of growth was going to be the priority, but there is now a change of emphasis. Now, though, that whole model has changed, we are not going to drop the inheritance tax pledge.”
No longer sharing the proceeds of growth.
In a recession the clear priority will be the wealthiest estates.
132 PfP.What keeps the ‘under 100 Maj.’ on the board is that betting 4-7 long-term is not to everyone’s taste.
Also,Hills are very sweet on the Tories and may be prepared to field a fair bit of money.
The other side on Betfair is an accident in waiting.I am in the process of dumping NOM but realise that for waiting I might do better.
123
On the back of the recent polls showing that a majority would like to leave the EU then Cameron’s reply should then be ‘goodbye’.
138, making only millionaires pay IHT isn’t favouring the wealthiest, is it?
130 - I am sure that there are many others as well. The NHS has been crippled for years under both Tory and Labour by a culture of managers and systems and private sector theory when everything should be focused on treatment and making people better, and how these outcomes can be best delivered.
123. Brown at the current EU summit.
Brown: ‘We want you to spend loads of money so I look less of a prat’
Other 26 countries: ‘f*** that’
Brown: ‘erm… er…’
Last Night’s Elections.
WTF is going on with Labour not standing candidates? Are they a national party or what.
Morris D indeed it is an odd line of attack from the Labour party that it is evil to take everyone but the wealthiest out of tax.
144 - Clearly they are having trouble persuading ppl to go round taking abuse on the doorstep. Interestingly I like the 8.5% swing to the Conservatives in Salford.
Boris in Any Questions, Radio 4, 20 March
That should liven things up!!
145, not that odd. After all, Brown taxed the poor to pay the rich. New Labour, like Robin Hood in reverse.
141 - It means they have to pay less IHT, which clearly is favouring them.
However, if the money is recouped in other ways it is not such a huge issue. That said, it is very symbolic that the one firm Tory tax pledge we have is that the best off are to be given a tax cut. Especially given the times we are living through.
On Libertas: In Crosby’s own words: “You can’t fatten a pig on market day”. There’s not really enough time for him to make a huge difference (IMHO) - it’s what, 10 weeks to the European Elections? Is that really time enough for him to make any impact, starting from a position of “Liber-what?”
145 - The one Tory pledge on taxation is all about ensuring well-off people pay less tax.
149
Nonsense. If you cut the lower rate of tax, or the NI, or the allowances, then the rich get some benefit. Fact is the middle class will benefit most, even with labour IHT policies.
149. Think of it as removal of double taxation as most of the money has already been taxed at least once.
What a shock, I sign into PB, and TIM is on about IHT, completely off topic and out of thrust of the general flow of the arguments.
TIM we get that you have issue with IHT cut, other people don’t like IHT full stop, including the Swedish (the model for many of a successful liberal left state in Europe)or think it should be raised. Your are boring everybody on here with repetition of the same argument over and over and over again.
News cycle, government cock-ups hanlding of NR, Obama makes massive live tv blunder, UK budget deficit to hit £200 billion, Crick says Tory election consultant off elsewhere, plenty to talk about there…
146 There was not a swing of 8.5% to the Conservatives in Salford Pendlebury , there was in fact a small swing to Labour on 0.7% compared to the result in 2008 .
151 - ACtually it is about ensuring that people who are actually not that well off pay no tax at all.
Somebody asked yesterday had Gordo visited the motor show recently,
Last July Gordon Brown visited the Birmingham Motor Show
http://www.order-order.com/2009/03/jonah-brown-closed-motor-show/
I can see the book coming, we had Bush-isms books, wait for the Jonah Effect to hit the shelves in time for Christmas.
Tim,
I do try not to have a pop at other posters, but your repeated attempts to hijack threads is blatant trollery:
Troll (n): someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum or chat room, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response or to generally disrupt normal on-topic discussion.
There’s quite a lot of attempted trolling on the forum, but it can usually be cantered past. You are relentless and fairly successful in diverting threads away from anything but your obsesions. Why?
O/T, as is my want, but has NPMP been on Guido’s new site…? [Much better as well]
Reply
*
31
A Labour M.P. says:
March 20, 2009 at 9:28 am
Resign? whats that mean…we are all out next year anyway…
158 Why? Righties keep falling for it.
158 - Simple answer to that, it his job to do so. Current flavour at Draper HQ is IHT, so the TIM is ordered to troll about it as much as possible.
156 - If you inherit over £600,000 then you are, by definition, well off.
From Waitrose’s weekly trading report for last week:
“Another area of growth was custard, up 23 per cent for the week – possibly a comfort trend – or maybe attributable to a ‘Peter Mandelson effect’!”
Is that W Hill market still open?
138 Chill out tim. Think of all the Labour millionaires who’ll benefit, if they haven’t already set up adequate estate/succession planning. The Prescotts, Millibands, Myners, Folletts, Meacher, Blairs and even El Gordo himself.
161 - More boring than any potential trolling is the constant claims from Tories on here that posts they do not like must have been inspired by Derek Draper or some other luminary in the Labour Party.
Oracle, it is possible not to agree with the Tories and not to be a Labour Party stooge. I know you struggle with that, but please try to understand. Not everyone thinks the Tories are great. Rather than accuse them of being trolls why not either: (1) ignore them; or (2) explain why they are wrong.
I doubt that Consevative Central Office will be quaking in its boots over this. He may have a good reputation- he did well in Australia of course, but less well in Britain (the 2005 Tory campaign was ok, but not brilliant).
Anyway, Libertas: what does it mean to the average voter? Not a lot. If voters want to protest against the European project surely they will stick with UKIP or the BNP.
165 Hear hear: Draper accusations are the bore to end all bores. Just a device Tories use to dismiss any comment that doesn’t fit into their world view.
O/T but not trying to hijack the thread….but where is the luvvly Marf these days?
165 - It is the turgid ingemination of a single point without any sense of an argument that leads to such accusations.
Incredible, Obama makes what I would politely terms an offensive remark (albeit we assume by accident), but old Auntie can’t see their man shamed, never happened according to UK branch of pravda.
Imagine if a different high profile, but much less important person, said something about one eye and idiot, I bet that would get the BBC hopping mad, oh wait……
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7954187.stm
169 - More like the assertion of uncomfortable issues tat make the Tories look out of touch and intent on looking after their own at the expense of the majority of the population.
167 Oh, the irony of your comment.
123. Same reaction Thatcher got in the early 80s before you she got us the EU rebate. It’s a sh*t test. Strong leadership is needed: persistance overcomes resistance.
111. First, I wouldn’t hold Bismarck up as a pillar of democracy anywhere; that shockingly contemptible quote you’ve just posted of his demonstrates more arrogance than anything I’ve heard any of our home-grown representatives say: even in the Labour party.
Even though I detest this government and what it’s done - we elected our home-grown representatives; noone elected the EU commissioners. Our budgets are audited at by the national audit office, criticised where appropriate and signed off each year; EU auditors haven’t signed off the EU accounts for 13 years.
Any more straw men you want to put up?
The Tories are proposing the only internal democratic reform within the EU that can be made; a new eurosceptic grouping of MEPs within the parliament to argue the mainstream, moderate eurosceptic case. A case that is currently not being made.
The EU parliament made it even harder recently to form a new grouping, upping the requirement for official recognition in terms of both MEP numbers and countries participating to qualify. I wonder why? Gosh, they’re so democratic aren’t they.
168 John O.Marf is fine but is in ‘ a transitional phase’ right now.I forecast she will be back very soon.
170
Just imagine tim’s reaction if an obscure tory MP had said that.
[125] - “Newspapers can save money on polls by checking the train times. Look what happened to John Major after he ballsed up the railways. Commuters’ votes count.”
Perhaps Labour are worth a bet after all then? Season tickets are expected to reduce in price, because the maximum increase in their price is set to RPI +1%.
158. What annoys me is the constant rising to the bait by other posters which allows this repetitive drone to continue.
170/175 - What did he say?
174. Thanks. Hope so. I think she was planning to attend Monday’s pc party.
So you think I am a Tory. Hmm, interesting…
It is also clear as others have remarked about why TIM comes across as a Draper stooge, and it isn’t because he supports the government on pretty much every issue.
Also, I have said repeatedly, actually on several occasions yesterday, more intelligent debate is required on PB.com from the left. TIM doesn’t fit that category, he is a stooge, for all the reasons that are trawled out again and again.
179-Marf will definitely be at the party with a probability of 98.4%.
178 - http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Economy/story?id=7119504
177 - My view exactly. Just ignore and he’ll either go away or (as would be preferable) join the discussion sensibly from a Labour perspective.
183. Yes, precisely.
180 - I do. That is certianly what you come across as. I am struggling to think of examples of you not following the Tory line and you do seem to object to anyone who dares not to criticise the government about absolutely everything.
Quick update from ladbrokes. We took £10k on a 2010 election yesterday and are now 1/5 from 1/4.
I can’t see there being much enthusiasm for betting on the Euros just yet, but how would the punters on here like any propositions to be framed? Percentage vote share bands? Over/Under vote share markets?
Libertas also have the problem that they are (currently) second in the google rankings behind a mail order d!ldo company of the same name.
Rearrange the following into a well-known tim phrase:
estates wealthiest the
For more amusement, check out the less-than-sympathetic response Charles Clarke is getting over at the Guardian’s Comment is Free.
I take full responsibility for the comment “Start by scrapping ID cards, you stupid fat scr*t*m.”
183 Perhaps people can agree to lower their arms at the same time. Less repetion from Tim could be match by a less dismissive/hostile tone from the tory brethren. An out of context reference to Draper could lead to an automatic stint in the sin bin.
A 24hrs ban would give most regulars the shakes.
139 URW - In fact Betfair’s buy pice for a Tory Overall has already eased over the last 24hrs from 1.56 to 1.59, although net of comm’n still doesn’t quite match Lad’s 1.57, but hey you can at least trade it out over the next 14 months, that has to be worth a single point.
What is really intriguing about all the current odds is that relatively few have as yet really felt the pain - only those who have lost their jobs and those who rely on bank interest for a significant part of their income. Yes, most of us have lost a stack on the value of our homes, but this is just paper rather than real money. The really unpleasant stuff is yet to come for most of us.
The Telegraph makes a big splash about the top rate of tax having to increase to 45%! This would be spectacularly GOOD news, more like 55% IMO, with the standard IT rate increasing to around 25% and the VAT rate to 20% with excise duties on alcohol due to increase by 50+ over the next 4 years and tax on petrol bt circa 20p over the same period Yes, it’s high taxes for ever folks, the good times are well and truly over. But can Gordon keep the lid on all this for another 14 months?
158 - Andy Cooke.
Trolling?
Don’t be pathetic, I was responding to posts upthread about Camerons speech yesterday.After which he sent out aides to say that despite his claim to prioritise debt reduction,the promise to benefit the wealthiest estates would come first.
I know that this is uncomfortable for some Tories on here.But get used to it.Put your arguments together iinstead of lapsing normal Bunker/Draperbot/bunker/nokia riff.
154 -And Camerons speech is in the news cycle too.
Agree?
186 shadsy.Thanks.That is gold dust ! I took 1.57 a CON victory in 2010 so I’m laughing.
O/T, why I hate the BBC’s HYS….
DEBATE:
Should migrants pay more for the cost of immigration?
SENT:
20-Mar-2009 09:57
COMMENT:
Only the BBC would persist with the lie that we live in a liberal society. Thirteen-years of snuffling in the pig-trough…?
Our migration, residence, benefit and law-and-order rules have been bent to fit a misguided policy. The BBC are as much fault as our Northern Brit government. Neither will be missed by history….
COMMENT STATUS:
Awaiting moderation
What are the bookies’-odds on a new BBC-charter, and does it offer a reluctant gambler good-value…?
183 ‘Just ignore and he’ll either go away or (as would be preferable) join the discussion sensibly from a Labour perspective.’
A blindly optimistic view. He’ll simply up the tempo of his trolling.
190 Final para: 50+ = 50%+
185 - Oh dear, you clearly don’t read what I say very closely. Anti-government, yes, died in the wool, Tory, no.
Again read back yesterdays thread and another regular poster categoried me, I would say correctly, as not just some headless Tory supporter.
How do I normally refer to Osborne, what have I said about what I think about the prospect of his as chancellor? Only need to look back a page! What have I said about Major? What about his reforms to higher education?
189. No - bots once outed should then simply be ignored.
189 - Agree with your main point. Not in favour of sin-bins except for gross violations of the site’s ethos.
100 replies and not (I think) a *SINGLE* pro-Clarke comment!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/20/charles-clarke-labour-commitment-change
180 -” It is also clear as others have remarked about why TIM comes across as a Draper stooge, and it isn’t because he supports the government on pretty much every issue.”
Read more closely Oracle.
On Amnesty for illegal immigrants and Drugs I oppose all that the Govt is doing.
Pointing out what Camerons priorities are is not taking the govyt line, you’ll see Lib Dems increasingly do it.
190 PfP.I think the test for Tory Backers in the short term is to hold their nerve.
My timing is probably off but I am currently Backing them at what might not be the best time.
Markets get BORED ! I think the chug-chug-chug of Tory good news/Labour bad news is getting on peoples’ nerves and that the market wants a change of scenery.
189 - Tim is interesting when he doesn’t ride his hobby horses and can be witty. He is his own worst enemy. We all enjoy a good wind-up, but they should form part of a varied diet.
I agree that references to astroturfers and Draperbots are tedious beyond measure. In any case, astroturfing is a minor irritation.
195 - Also, I not sure when I have ever said I support that much of what Cameron is currently offering, certainly “follow the Tory” line.
I doubt many Tories spend their afternoons listening the Mark Thomas (ultra lefty) interviewing Paul Mason (ultra lefty) and openly admitting to that was interesting and informative…
72 Phil C. Sorry for the delayed response, but busy today. What is distinctive about Libertas? The EU is not a big issue for most electors. However, if asked them to rank the attitude of the parties I suspect the answer would be something like:
Very pro EU – want closer union and join the euro LibDems
Pro EU Broadly content with the status quo. Join euro eventually Labour
Mildly pro EU but wanting major reforms and decentralisation and no euro
Tory
Anti EU – wants to leave UKIP
I can’t see a gap for Libertas to fill.
187: …and their website seems to be pretty much unreachable right now. Small political parties really need to work this kind of thing out: Hardly anyone will visit for weeks, then access will come in massive peaks. You really need to host with somebody who can scale when you get a spike, and doesn’t bill you for all the traffic you’re not getting the rest of the time. If you can’t afford a CDN, take a look at Amazon S3.
On topic, if you want to reform the EU in a more nation-statey direction, and not just have your country leave, this will need the agreement of lots of member states. The only way to do it is with a pan-European movement. This is strikes me as such a blindingly obvious piece of good sense that it’s pretty much certain to doom the party to certain oblivion with the British electorate, who get an attack of the stupids whenever the subject is mentioned. Eurosceptics will vote for the BNP or the UKIP, depending who has the bigger Union Jack.
Let’s try this…
Do people agree that things have picked up slightly for the govt. since the US trip?
201
I heart Mark Thomas. His show that used to be on TV (C4?) highlighted the absurdity of authority in a way few others could manage.
If they have it hasn’t showed up in the polls.
On Libertas, if they get anyone elected, will they form part of the group the Tories work with after leaving the EPP?
Who is in that group, does anyone know?
204. Jonathan. I noticed you ran away before answering my question about Krugman yesterday. So has PK suggested Brown should win the economics Nobel?
The anti-EU vote is crazy. In approximate order of credibility:
Tories, UKIP, BNP, no2eu, Libertas, English Democrats, Veritas.
Any I’ve missed?
Of these, no2eu should worry the hell out of any prospective Labour MEP. They have the might of the unions behind them. They will hopefully also cut into what would otherwise be a BNP protest vote. The BNP is a complete wild card, subject to a strong anti-Bradley effect.
As for the others, I do think they can prevent Cameron getting to his 43% target, if they have credible selling points. Only UKIP really does.
Lynton Crosby’s strategic advice could be dangerous, if Libertas is willing to fund a mega publicity drive. Even though I am sceptical of his value in London - Ken vastly overperformed Labour’s approval ratings, and was closing in on Boris towards the end - having so much experience can’t hurt too much.
48 “but I would never go with the Tories because of their approach to the EU. For me it’s clincher”
Mike - weren’t you a fully paid-up member of the Labour Party when they were vehemently opposed to Europe, even to the extent of favouring a total withdrawal from the then watered-down EEC.
Admit it Mike, wild horses would never get you to vote Tory. If it weren’t Europe you’d have another issue ready in reserve. In fact you already already have where, iirc, you are in favour of totally unfettered immigration.
205 - I definitely recommend the podcast, it is pretty funny and very interesting.
Can Libertas actually run an election campaign in this country? All to do with PPERA and all that? If Wendy Alexanda had an impermissable donation either from Ireland or the Isle of Man - I don’t think Libertas given its overseas headquarters and base will offer much assistance to Libertas and the hypothesis that Crosby provided a winning strategy in the outsuburbs against Labour’s centre (2008) is fine until places like Harrow IIRC swung to Labour! Sure some places like Bromley swung heavily Tory but you would expect that! hardly genuis plus the infrastructure was there on the the ground i.e. party helpers, Cllrs, MLA’s, tory HQ campaign staff, MP’s etc etc non of which Libertas have.
Crosby is over-rated and indeed his campaign was very poor in 2005 he completly misread the mood and I know for certain some very senior Tory people at shadow cabinet level had grave misgivings about the campaign before the election day. Crosby did not understand the tatical voting that goes on in this country and the fact that the focus on Immigration did not do any good and would prevent depleting tatical unwind.
Mr Smithson, are there new filters in place? I have a comment awaiting moderation that is fairly innocuous. Are there new words that we should avoid?
208 I didn’t “run away”. Some of us have life you know.
Look back I never said that PK nominated GB. I just pointed out that kens views on GB’s economics knowledge where not shared by a nobel laureate.
comparing Ken: “Brown doesnt have any ideas. It’s just too dumb for words. I know my economics (unlike Gordo) and I know a lot of economists and this is a joke.”
Krugman “He’s pretty good. If this prime minister thing doesn’t work out, he’s got a pretty good career as an academic [ahead of him]. It was amazing. The level of discussion was, particularly for someone accustomed to the US for the last few years, awesome.”
204: What exactly ‘has’ improved? The economy? Out budget deficit? unemployment figures? The performance of our cricket team (england men only)?
Even the big things like bank funding and quantifive easing etc most people don’t understand, even if they are interested and intelligent. In addition the impact is undirect and long term.
No fundamentals have changed, which is reflected in the polls. Stuck in a holding position until something
Have to agree with Martin assessment of Crosby running on Tory 2005 campaign, certainly didn’t get my vote, thought it was appallingly run.
Also, yes he nannied Bungling Boris around, but at the national level aren’t the Tories already “fully loaded” with people to run things, with the likes of Coulson, Hilton, Ashcroft.
214. I think you need to understand that as well as being a great economist PK is also an extremely partisan left-winger.
210 - Of these, no2eu should worry the hell out of any prospective Labour MEP. They have the might of the unions behind them.
It has fat Bobs communist allies at the RMT,pre libel trial Tommy Sheridan and the official Communist Party.
In 1945 they may have polled 2or 3%
The vaious discussion about the Welsh language over the last few days reminded me of this statement (was it by Carwyn James??)
The relationship between Wales and England is based on trust and understanding. We (the Welsh) dont trust them (the English) and they dont understand us.
Hmmm… Cameron doesn’t share my view from last night that it makes sense to postpone the inheritance tax cut.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2009/03/david-cameron-refuses-to-promise-tax-cuts-in-sky-news-interview.html
If he is genuinely going to increase top rate tax to 45% then I guess it could be left in as a sweetener for the ABs. Still think it is bad politics.
#209 [ by wibbler March 20th, 2009 at 11:03 am ],
The anti-EU vote is crazy. In approximate order of credibility:
Tories, UKIP, BNP, no2eu, Libertas, English Democrats, Veritas.
Any I’ve missed?
Think again. Or maybe read the views of us bloggers.
I received a PDF-newsletter from the party recently. Whilst I am sure many of those published are not - unlike me - card-carrying members, we English Democrats do appear to have a wide base of support. [Our candidates beat those of other parties hands-down as well (discuss)!]
Sorry cannot link this March’s issue, but this is where we stand…!
[215] - “No fundamentals have changed, which is reflected in the polls. Stuck in a holding position until something”
…blows up in Brown’s face again?
There have, perhaps, been an absence of major disasters recently, though this may be a perception thing, where the disasters have to become progressively worse for them to have the same impact on the psyche.
Relatively, then, this is an improvement, but there’s nothing more to it than that.
211
I’m listening now. He starts ”So we’re fcuked. But how fcuked are we?”
lol
He’s got a pretty good career as an academic
He tried that, and he wasn’t much good at that either. Don’t think the world of academia missed out of much, teaching politics at Glasgow College of Technology was all he managed.
220 - As Oscar Wilde noted, there’s only one thing worse than being misunderstood, and that’s being understood.
@218 (tim)
I still think Bob Crow is pretty influential amongst union-minded people. He will do very well out of diverting people currently switching or thinking of switching Lab->BNP but who are perhaps slightly uncomfortable with the BNP’s thuggish image.
216 “aren’t the Tories already “fully loaded” with people to run things, with the likes of Coulson, Hilton, Ashcroft.”
Oracle - quite right. Maybe, this was the only offer on the table for Crosby.
204 Jonathan “Do people agree that things have picked up slightly for the govt. since the US trip?”
Maybe a tad, yes. It’s hard to gauge, but perhaps slightly better party discipline, maybe a touch better media sentiment (from a very low base, of course). Perhaps also just better weather! There could be a further small shift towards Labour (a couple of percent in the polls?) over the next few weeks; as Ken has repeatedly pointed out, we’re in a (relative) ’sweet spot’ in the economy at present, with lower outgoings for quite a lot of people, and the unemployment rise still in its early stages.
May/June is Labour’s best chance, but I don’t think they’ll take it. Downhill from there.
204. No - Don’t confuse the abandomant of politics as usual due to Ivan’s death with some sort of resurgence for Brown or Labour.
I remember at the time some folks thought the untimely death would assist the Tories - I did not. But in hindsight it assisted Labour. Why? Because it took the media focus off further bad economic data at the time. That is not the same thing as creating some sort of platform for Labour in electoral terms it purely meant it ironed oud some of the static in the polls.
That US trip was a farce and Labour know it from the crap speech by brown to a rag bag of congressional representatives to post asstants to interns, the ted Kennedy award and the like.
224. Yes I think that comment in particular shows that PK was really only interested in peddling a line - i.e. ‘this man’s ideas, which (importantly) chime with my own, should be implemented everywhere.’
@221 (Fluffly Thoughts)
I put the other minor parties ahead of English Democrats because UKIP and BNP have strong name recognition, no2eu has tacit union support, Libertas have a millionaire prepared to shower manna on endless publicity.
Honestly, I am not too concerned with the relative outcome of minor parties, except as it affects my anti-Labour stance. They are amusing but not really relevant. But this fragmentation will lead to implosion for many, if not all, and cause minor collateral damage to the Tories.
190. PfP - that doesn’t sound like a Conservative speaking to me.
If we can better educate our workforce, end the welfare dependency culture, move to a more high-tech/science led economy, with much better transport/energy infrastructure and low taxes we will be a very attractive country. We can have a good quality of life, and the exchequer will easily be able to finance decent public services; as long as they are decentralised and market-disciplined.
Cutting expenditure, reducing debt and lowering taxes is a prerequisite to this happening. It’ll be tough for the next 5-10 years, but I see this as a 20-30 year project.
That is my vision of a future Conservative Britain. By 2040, I think we could be 6th/7th largest economy in the world, with near fully-employment, low taxes and a world class education system again. Even without North Sea Oil and privatisation revenues.
Gosh, I’m getting excited thinking about it. A great future lies ahead: what a fantastic thing it is to be Conservative!
214. Jonathan. Bottom line. Krugman isnt saying Gordo is up for a Nobel. I was making the point that Gordo has no chance of being put up for a Nobel. As a typical Labour weasel you want to make it about something different - whether Brown knows his economics or not - which wasnt the point of the thread. Weak. The nominating point is a matter of fact, the economics knowledge a matter of opinion. PK likes spending, Brown was talking about spending, natch, PK thinks it’s great. PK is also somewhat mercurial, it wouldnt surprise me if he turns against the Saviour of the World at some point.
“Libertas” is a very annoying name.
Ben Brogan has two stories today that Gordo wont like
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
Crosby doesn’t come cheap either,
Much of this was the work of their Australian election guru Lynton Crosby, who earned £441,000 in the campaign. He was blamed for the Tories’ negative campaigning.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article709038.ece
Maybe the Tories are practicing what they preach, and refusing to outlay even more cash for yet another adviser in a time of recession.
Good draw in the Champions league for Arsenal and ManU.
11/1 Aresenal from ast week was good value.
232. CR. I like it other than the “market disciplined” bit. Some things are not really amenable to markets - choosing a doctor for instance. One of those examples where Labour got hold of a management 101 textbook and have done lots of damage with it.
235 - “a bristle” or “a blister”, in fact?
Guido vs Draper LIVE CHAT Swiss Bob & Old Hoborn moderating (sort of):
THE BATTLE OF THE BLOGGERS, GUIDO VS DRAPER, THURSDAY MARCH 26TH
Email for reminders: Swiss Bob
A PIZZA THE ACTION, Stanislav’s Blues
He got another £140k for 4 months work with Boris, can’t be bad.
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Lynton_Crosby
236. Or maybe stealing a march on Gordon Brown “British Jobs for British Workers!”
…reducing debt and lowering taxes. Good plan!! Cant wait for Paxman et al to shred your spokespeople at the election!
238. The latest health department wheeze is to try to improve the “market” for doctors by asking for feedback. The problem with this is that it will have a low signal to noise ratio - one needs specialist medical knowledge to know when an operation is particularly difficult and if a doctor has a particular speciality in it.
One factor that I don’t think we have discussed much here in terms of electoral strategy is timing. One of Smithson’s rules is that the more David Cameron is in the news, the better the Tories do in the polls. So a simple but logical conclusion would be he should get himself on the news more. But he doesn’t. He punctuates his appearances, gets a poll boost and then retreats for a while.
This is clearly a deliberate startegy. He can’t control “events” or the media narrative although he can influence the latter. But what he can do is time his run. There is only one finishing post that counts. Brown decides where it is but as time goes on it becomes a forced choice and May 2010 looks very likely.
Cameron needs to avoid peaking too soon. Remember Obama fatigue? Once Cameron knows where the finishing line is he will come with a wet sail and cruise home. I am less sure now that he will win BIG but I still fancy 375+ seats at the right price.
After Nick Robinson’s blunder on Wed , he still hasn’t updated his blog, it speaks volumes.
tim no comments on this Israeli story
re 224 what’s the Loony view of the EU then? Perhaps JL could enlighten us.
Interesting politics on this one - It shows how bad the public finances are even if I disagree with it (Raising to 45%). If VAT had not been cut this higher rate would never have been needed IMO. Still it will be interesting to see what the LD’s say on it anyway given LD’s saying they now want to cut taxes etc which jar’s against the last 15 years of requests for higher taxes like the long defunct ‘Penny on income tax’ - I wonder how many voters still associate that with the LD’s!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5019203/Tories-will-raise-tax-rates-for-top-earners.html
The Tories do seem to be becoming an alternative government in accepting things that on an ideological basis you would avoid like the plague.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5019203/Tories-will-raise-tax-rates-for-top-earners.html
250 - Chris, you’ll have to forgive me on this but after your performance the other night when you started inventing dead children and making up “facts”, I really can’t be bothered debating Israel/Plaestine with you.
I don’t think theres any point.
Any tecchies out there? i am trying to watch DC on the sky news video, it plays the advert then stops. I have installed the latest version of adobe flash player but it still wont work, any ideas gratefully received
re 253 Thought not. There’s not really much to debate is there when Israeli troops admit to abuses. Don’t you perhaps even want to pretend that this is a made up story.
251. It used to be skiing on the butter mountain and boating on the wine lake in times past…
223 - Wibbler, I can’t get the link you referred to either.
What has it to do with not delaying IHT cuts?
234 it is indeed a Conservative speaking to you ….. a Conservative who has seen our economy wrecked by this profligate Government. Good on you for being prepared to wait 20-30 years for things to recover.
re 255 Mike can we please remove this abuse - it is inaccurate and untrue.
256 - As I say Chris, you’ve shown what you are on the subject of the ME.
Theres no point engaging you.
Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israel Radio that the findings would be examined seriously.
“I still say we have the most moral army in the world. Of course there may be exceptions but I have absolutely no doubt this will be inspected on a case-by-case basis,” he said.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I agree with Ehud Barak.
252. Martin Day. 45% on the rich isnt enough. Assuming a modest decline in automatic stabilisers from 2011 onwards and big cuts in spending (£20-30 billion), I still think an extra penny on the basic rate or a bit more on VAT are going to be needed to bring the deficit back towards anything remotely reasonable.
Surely the phrase “moral army” is flirting with oxymoronic status?
@258 (tim)
Yesterday, I was saying that delaying the inheritance tax cut be good policits. It would only affect relatively few voters, nearly all of whom vote Tory anyway - because the fall in house prices has meant a lot of people no longer fall in the affected bracket.
In that interview, Cameron seems to say it will go ahead, because it is fully funded by the tax on non-doms.
263. Indeed it’s quite possible the 45% rate won’t raise very much at all. It’s more a gesture than anything else.
264 RBH.You make an esoteric point but it is not the last word.
Of all the free nations on earth,Israel needs an army most.
Labour at their disasterous 2008 level at last nights local by elections;
http://www.24dash.com/news/Local_Government/2009-03-20-Labour-defends-marginal-Salford-seat-in-latest-council-by-elections
265 - The money coming in from non doms is not relevant.
That money could be used to reduce taxes for anyone,or reduce debt.
I agree with you about the politics of it.
Workshy Labour MP’s or are they marginal MP’s trying to protect their majorities???
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5018301/Lazy-Labour-MPs-to-be-told-to-pull-their-weight-in-Parliament-for-the-first-time.html
241. I understand your scepticism surrounding the word “market”, but I think your comments reflect more an abuse of the term under this current government to misrepresent what is actually just good old-fashioned bit of centralised, political target setting with a new name and a few buzzwords of management jargon set in.
What I’m talking about is independently run schools and hospitals across the nation, free to respond to need, set their own staffs salaries, innovate individually and manage their own budgets. I believe this would drastically improve quality as hospitals/schools would copy the good ideas and the bad ones would be patently obvious. The “national” part of NHS would be the funding following the patient. Maybe like a social insurance contract like in Switzerland. Doctors, Nurses and Teachers could make their own decisions. Sure, the Unions will oppose it, but they are almost always wrong, so they need to be faced down.
259. Re: 20-30 years - needs must Peter! Besides, you know what it’s like. Life is short. It will fly by. Married?
265. surely this tax cut is either a good idea, or it isn’t? how can doing it be good politics, and delaying it also be good politics?
271. a “postcode lottery”, in other words.
@269 (tim)
That you feel this way is hardly a surprising revelation.
@272 (ed)
Timing is a quite separate issue from policy. Tony Blair understood this instinctively. The point was really hammered home for me in the recent Greenberg-Penn pollster.com series.
[272] - Cos they get to announce it a bazillion times after the fashion of Gordon Brown?
They get to drive home the idea of wanting to cut taxes [presumably popular] with the idea that the country is in such a bad state [due to Brown] that, prudently, they have to delay it.
266 and 263 - that is why i don’t agree with it (45%)! It will raise peanuts!
But it is saying that things are dire IMO for them to even think about it! Certainly if the useless VAT cut had never been introduced the 45% would not be needed.
Libertas seems a lot more sensible than the Colonel Blimps that make up UKIP.The fact that they are trying to appeal right across Europe may mean that they are effective and help to displace UKIP, which quite frankly is not a serious party and has no hope of ever achieving it’s objectives as a result. Hopefully in the short term this will split the UKIP vote and cause them to lose seats and in the long term hasten their demise and replace them witha sensible eurosceptic protest vote party.
Despite all this I will say it again, a UKIP vote (or any vote other than a conservative one), is a vote that helps keep Crash Gordon in office. Send a propoer message to Gordon, Vote Conservative!!!!!
Just to put the IHT change in context. Compared to the sort of figures banded about these days, £1.3 billion seems a very small sum compared the £2 trillion of debt we are in and the billions wasted every year by the government.
Downturn lowers cost of inheritance tax proposal
By Jean Eaglesham
Published: March 9 2009 02:00 | Last updated: March 9 2009 02:00
The cost of a flagship Conservative tax cut has almost halved as a result of the recession, persuading David Cameron to retain the pledge despite the pressure on public finances, writes Jean Eaglesham .
A drop in personal wealth over the past nine months, due mainly to falling property prices, means the Tory pledge to exempt all but millionaires from inheritance tax is now forecast to cost £1.3bn for 2011-12, according to Treasury figures.
This is barely a third of the £3.1bn cost estimate when the pledge was first announced in 2007
274. but as an opposition pledge timing does not really apply. it seems to me to be changing from “we will cut this” to “we’d like to cut this in future” which can also be read as “we’d like to take the credit for cutting this tax, whilst still collecting it”
270: I think we need a list of names of the guilty 20
277. could euroscepticism really be the seed for the first genuinely european political party? awesome.
Just some context as well, Tax credit mistakes and fraud cost £1.5bn last year.
252. Martin, previously we said we wanted to raise income taxes on high earners, now we’re saying that we want to reduce taxes on low and middle earners.
Surely you can see that’s two sides of the same coin.
In case formula 1 punters are interested (and sorry if it’s been posted before) here’s a really good analysis of the form. There may be good odds to be had.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/73781
Jeez, amazing what you find when you do some digging about Tax credit, I knew they were poorly designed and poorly run, but still…
Treasury figures already show overpayments of £ 5.7billion between 2003 and 2006, together with £3.21billion lost in fraud and other errors. The £1.1billion expected to be confirmed today will bring the total above £10billion (as of 20th May 2008).
Can I say I’ve just read a transcript of Fern Britton’s appearance on “Question Time” and I’m appalled by her patronising sexist tosh.
Isn’t Yvette Cooper in the treasury? I haven’t heard her reprimand Gordon for overspending.
282. i worry about any policy where a major line used in its favour is that it isn’t a big deal
Had a quick look at Libertas web-site. The assumption UK makes is Libertas is a UKIP clone but can’t really see what a Europhile Lib Dem would disagree with on its aims, though can see issues a sceptic Tory might have:
- European Union law should be passed with a positive vote in the European Parliament. Laws have to be approved, either by a national parliament and or the European Parliament.
- any person who has the power to decide on a law must be accountable at the ballot box.
- all law making must be done in public.
- replace Lisbon Treaty by one is clear to Europe’s people and that is supported at the ballot box by Europe’s people. A short and readable basic treaty, no longer than 25 pages providing the democracy & accountability above.
For point 1 I think a sceptic would want national parliaments to approve as well as European Parliament (perhaps by qualified majority?) whereas a Europhile might go with European Parliament only.
Libertas otherwise seems to be in much same place as the Conservatives and from what Clegg & Huhne have said about democratic deficit also not too different from Lib Dem approach (in theory if not in practice). Question is why vote Libertas rather than those two?
ORACLE
Great podcast. Particularly revealing that Paul Mason seems to get a lot of his insights from Hedge Fund people, whilst the Central Bankers just acted like everything was fine.
27. MTF - Interesting that maybe some Labour MP’s have just given up - If you were a Labour MP and recieved a Letter like that you might think “sod you” and defect!
Or just resign the whip: If you thought you were doomed anyway why not go out with a bang if you thought the government was not serving the people properly?
Oracle.
The point about IHT is that it crystallises the Conservative priority.
If the argument is now that as house prices have fallen the cut will benefit the wealthiest 2% rather than 4%, doesn’t that make Camerons prioritisation of this even more counterproductive not less.
271 Casino - let’s just say that 20-30 years will be too long for me, so let’s just hope it doesn’t fly by too fast!
263 “I still think an extra penny on the basic rate or a bit more on VAT are going to be needed”
Ken - I just wish I had your confidence, surely this is nowhere near enough, based on our truly horrific current borrowing levels. I’ll stay with my upthread predictions.
290. i don’t know but wouldn’t these guys more likely represent safe seats?
283. It would be interesting to see what the LD strategy on this higher rate is!
I take LD taxation policy as seriously as alien invasion defences - Interesting and a possibility but likely never to used!
291 - No it doesn’t, it is one policy, by the same argument saying they are going with the 45% tax makes them anti-rich! So what are they pro-rich or anti-rich?
It is one policy, a popular one, and I was pointing out you are go on and on about something, that even if the non-dom stuff doesn’t raise the money, cost £1 billion or so. In comparison the current Labour government waste many many times for more than every year from Quangos to tax credits.
Morning All,
Firstly, on Lynton Crosby, it is one thing to run a national campaign successfully for a major political party with ample resources. It is another to run a campaign for a pressure group come political party across 27 countries. How are they going to run an effective campaign in each of these countries from a start-up position and where are they going to get the necessary resources from to fund all this.
Libertas will likely get some successes in Europe, however I am doubtful it will have any real impact in what is the most Eurosceptic of the 27 nations and IMO the only votes it will attract in the UK are the uninformed and the naïve.
We are in the middle of a recession and its policies relate to little more than tinkering with the constitution of a governing body that a great number of people don’t even care about or just want to be rid of. If anything these next elections will primarily be a vote on the domestic politics of this country and the economic crisis and as such Libertas won’t get a look in because they haven’t got anything to say about it and in any case they are a pan-European group so they never will have unless integration continues.
In a country such as Ireland (which polls have suggested has turned against Libertas for the time being) where there is a general acceptance of the EU, they can make their argument. In a more Eurosceptic country that has never been comfortable with the European project and has established Eurosceptic parties, I don’t think they will get any traction at all. No doubt Eurosceptics will take a look but the obvious conclusion from reading their policies is definitely that they are a Europhile party. They do not talk about returning powers to sovereign nations. They only talk of reforming the structure of the EU. The Conservative position is far more Eurosceptic and obviously so are the EDP and UKIP.
Furthermore, despite their rhetoric, being a pro-european party and easily labelled as such, perhaps in reality they are more likely to appeal to disaffected Libdem and Labour supporters who are sick of the lack of democracy and transparency in Brussels?
Consequently, with little or no traction in the UK, Crosby and co will probably advise Libertas to focus elsewhere, where they can get traction. IMO Libertas presence in the UK is a token effort to support the Pan-European label and nothing more and will fizzle out toward the end of the campaign to become the damp squib it was always likely to be.
293 unlikely
288. Libertas seems very confused - it reminds of the Referendum Party. Against the EU as it presently exists but offering a muddled, contradictory and unachievable alternative. It will do far worse at the polls as well.
Cost to the rich of 45% tax band, £2bn+ extra, cost of IHT (which effects not just the wealthy and is paid by the offspring regardless of their wealth), £1.3bn. Who is getting an easy ride there then?
273. God. I was waiting for that f-ing stupid point to be made by some lefty.
Thanks for confirming you are one ed.
“Postcode lottery” - is code for nowhere can anywhere be different from anywhere else, because even if it’s slightly different, it’s “unfair”. Therefore, uniformity is imposed everywhere.
This tiresome Soviet argument is so stupid, it’s almost not worth countering. Imposed uniformity stifles innovation, experimental business models and new medical/educational techniques. No-one can trial new ways of doing things, or running things, in case they create an “unequal” sitation. No patient/parent can respond to new methods, so the insitutions concerend know what “works”. Therefore, everything is held down to the lowest common denominator and the pace of improvement actually achieved is so small, it would embarass a snail.
Even after all that, there are still plenty of NHS hospitals and State Schools that are better than others, so it doesn’t work anyway. We already have a three-tier system - good comps, ok comps, totally terrible comps. Good hospitals, ok hospitals, MRSA hospitals. In reality, whether you can afford high house-prices and a car determines access to the good stuff. The poor are “stuck” with their local “postcode” sh*thouse.
Now, imagine everyone was enfranchised by the purchasing power that a voucher would give them? They could all afford to purchase health/education wherever they wanted. The poorest could even be given a travel voucher to help them get there.
Hospitals/Schools would innovate faster, efficiency would improve and overall quality would improved drastically. Sure, there would be some differences, but *this happens anyway* and not small ones either. BIG ONES. This market method would make everything better faster and widen access to the poorest. It would also be more efficient.
Do you ever hear any of this “postcode lottery” cr*p about other enterprises? “Oh, no. We can’t have *different* supermarkets competing nationwide - we must have one supermarket type everywhere. Same prices. Nationally set salaries. A lidl in every town, ‘free at the point of use’ - we mustn’t allow a Sainsburys or Waitrose competitor because that would lead to a ‘postcode lottery’ ” - what rubbish.
This system, or similar, happens all over Europe. In Switzerland, Holland… even in that socialist paradise Sweden. Probably a favourite of yours.
Numbskull.
295 - Estimates vary.One journalist says 3.1billion, one says 1.3 billion.
The Conservatives were estimating 2.4 billion last time I looked.
Anyhow you mayt like to consider whether symbolis and priorities are important by considering the words a a Mr D.Cameron when talking about the BBC this week.
“would be an important signal of the need for all public institutions in these difficult times to do more with less.”
Th important signal sent out over IHT is that the wealthiest estates will get tax cuts no matter what state the public finances are in.
301. What will Labour do with IHT put it upto 45%?
292. “271 Casino - let’s just say that 20-30 years will be too long for me, so let’s just hope it doesn’t fly by too fast!”
Surely not Peter?
Healthy, fit men can expect to live to at least 80 years old these days, no?
302 Don’t feed the troll
294.
“I take LD taxation policy as seriously as alien invasion defences”
We do not need any more policies to counter alien invasions. We already have a fantastic containment policy for those from other planets: when they land we keep them unemployed and locked up in Brighouse and neutralise them by keeping them writing inane blogs and posting on web-sites.
Estimates vary.One journalist says 3.1billion, one says 1.3 billion.
How New Labour! Take an old out of date figure and represent it as current (or figure from an unreliable source), and try to discredit the accurate figure.
It is like the excuse whenever a critical report comes out, well that was last year, it is different now, as the reality the following year, same again…..all very tiresome.
296. jsfl. Have you sought permission from “Stodge in Exile” to preface your posts with his breezy diurnal greetings?
306 - Out of date?
It the figure reported today.
He suggested he would stop relatively high earners receiving tax credits. But an aide insisted the party was not moving to reverse its 2007 pledge to cut inheritance tax - requiring £3.1bn of public spending
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/20/david-cameron-conseratives-economic-policy
305. Not quite Brighouse but very close!
Indeed but is it torture to me or the ones who read my postings!
307. Stjohn LOL - I’m not the only one - pass back to Stodge that his civility is rubbing off on some of us (well sometimes anyway)!
;o)
301. Tim - I do try not to spend too much time replying to pointless party pointscoring but a question for you. It’s widely acknowledged that the IHT proposals formed a major part in the collapse of Brown Bounce I, along with Cameron’s speech and Brown’s jolly to Iraq. Do you accept that analysis? If so, why do you think the proposals were as popular as they were, when they only affect a minority of voters?
294. I think the almost the exact opposite..
I take alien invasion defences as seriously as LD taxation policy.
And shock horror the Guardian do the same thing! You never would have guessed! £3.1bn is the official figure calculated by the treasury, for, wait for it, 2007!
Thanks for proving my point TIM! End of engagement with the Troll.
312. May the force be with you!
tim - why don’t you shuffle off this mortal coil and let’s all see what happens?
And just for the record,
A drop in personal wealth during the past nine months, due mainly to falling property prices, means the Conservative pledge to exempt all but millionaires from inheritance tax is now forecast to cost £1.3bn, according to Treasury figures.
Source, Financial Times
Which is the more reputable newspaper on financial issues, the tax dodging left wing rag, read mainly by teachers and public sector workers, or the FT, THE source for accurate business and economic matters.
I just imagined something funny from having loose woman on the TV this lunch time! All for research!
Wull David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg be making cameo appearances on there? It would be quite interesting though Clegg would be walking into a mine field in relation to number 30!
The questions would not be as much about what he would do in number 10 after an election but what he would do in number 31!!!
From Sky:
Brown in Brussels press-conference blustering over question on British Tax havens. In fact he completely ignored it. What’s he up to?
I do accept that analysis.
At the top of a housing boom, where IHT was actually less than the cost of a family house in the SE, the Labour Party were stupid not to see it coming.
They responded too late, but correctly raised the level.
To argue now, that in entirely different economic circumstances,when house prices are likely to have fallen by 30%, that raising IHT exemption to a million (actually two Million) has the same effect or popularity is it did 18 months ago, is I believe a massive mistake by Cameron.
Every time he opens his mouth about tough times, difficult priorities etc this choice of priorities will be hung around his neck.
284 Which is why I dropped a 10 e/w on Jensen Button at 25/1 - (5/1 on top 3 place). Excellent Value
Bored about IHT now…is there anyway we can avoid most of the thread being tied up in going around and around the houses on something which is hardly topical.
317 - The first two million will be exempt.
Your point about decling asset values is apt though.
The priority was the wealthiest 4%.
Now its the wealthiest two or three per cent.
Thanks for that!
322- Ignore TIM bot. I have given it my two penny, as as said end of engagement. I did it more not to converse with TIM bot, but more because I found the new figures of the cost and how in relation to other things it makes it even less costly / economically significant than when it was announced.
309. at least you have world class brass banding on your doorstep
322 -Agreed
Will the new Tory grouping in the European Parliament include Libertas?
IHT is in effect a voluntary tax already. Tax professionals often describe it so to their clients. Well known socialists, the brothers Miliband, declined to pay it on their highly-principled socialist firebrand father’s colossal estate, I believe.
An increased exemption just levels the playing-field a wee bit for ordinary moderately-successful folk, relative to well-informed people with good tax lawyers, such as New Labour cabinet ministers.
311 - it’s because the policy is aspirational, and is something a lot of people worry about. People would like to think they would one day be in a position to have a million pounds of worth, but also worry about leaving their house to their kids; whether or not they ever reach that million-pound mark.
The point of all this is; Tim doesn’t understand why it proved popular because Labour don’t understand aspiration.
Sorry if I fed the bloody thing, guys. Shutting up now.
300. mostly BS i’m afraid. in case you hadn’t noticed, we do have the same supermarkets everywhere. there’s no escaping tesco.
323. Can i just say something to you Tim, Some folks who have wealth are that tight and selfish they give nothing to their kids -sometimes when the folks die it is the only time they get anything from them - just remember that!
330 ed - So, in that case, let’s get this straight, you DON’T think there’s any danger of what you call a ‘postcode lottery’?
328 - Maybe Labour should ask the Swedish why they abolished, as did the likes of Australia (that country with debt of 15% of GDP and riding out the economic storm without incident) and Singapore.
326. Will the Labour group have enough people to fill a Taxi?
Off topic, I see that Liverpool and Chelsea got the easiest draws in the Champions League
326. No doubt if Libertas actually get any MEP’s we’ll find out which grouping they prefer. Perhaps you should ask one of their candidates or e-mail their web-site?
I think it is remiss of them not to inform voters. Don’t you?
“Lord Mandelson today defended the way the government handled the rescue of Northern Rock after the process was strongly criticised in a report by the National Audit Office. The business secretary said the bank was allowed to carry on with high-risk lending after it started receiving support from the taxpayer because the government did not want to suggest it was closing for business.”
So it’s OK to lie for temporary political advantage?
Go Mandy, go!
331 - Poor boy.
Did your parents feed you with a catapult,then pack you off to boarding school?
329 tim must be a shoe in for Morris Dancer’s Space Cannon. He can act as an IHT missionary, spreading his good words across the galaxy.
337 - I think Mandy is losing his touch, that is a terrible poor show from the master of spin. Taking 125% mortgages off the shelf and saying only 100% (or preferably 90%), is not closed for business, and I can’t believe anybody, but maybe TIM bot, would believe it.
Steve Richard’s column in the Independent explains why tim and the brothers are so excited about IHT; it cost them the election that never was and they are bitter.
It is not paid by the wealthiest estates, it is paid by the aspirational middle classes, otherwise known as the people who elected Tony Blair.
It is not a Tory priority. Not sure which part of this statement “Reducing government debt would take priority over tax cuts if the Conservatives won the next election, David Cameron said yesterday” they are having trouble understanding.
I do hope Labour put it on every election poster though.
338. No! I went to state schools and it was dreadful.
332. i just think the same tired old ideological claptrap deserves the same old tired argument.
introducing irritating local variations in a national service adds nothing in terms of innovation i’m afraid. tesco is a good example of a successful business that has realised that offering a uniform service nationwide is the way to go. are they socialists? of course not. do they execute on their plan better than government + civil service usually do? definitely.
Tesco is a good example of a successful business that has realised that offering a uniform service nationwide is the way to go.
And that is perfectly sums up perfectly why I hate Tescos!
341. neatly exemplifying why tim keeps going - you are tying yourself in knots.
please make your mind up: was it a political masterstroke that cost Lab an election, or is it not a priority, and irrelevant.
343 - They also drive perfectly good businesses into the ground, screw UK farmers (and well actually all farmers), depress wages by paying the absolutely minimum both to suppliers and staff.
And actually the “savings” of Tescos are massively overstated. I get milk direct from a farm for 1p more a pint, and get meat from a local butcher (who uses meat reared locally) of a far higher quality for similar cost (and in some cases, like sausages, less) than Tescos.
344. sorry i had forgotten that supposed champions of free enterprise usually only like posh free enterprise. please accept my apologies and replace all mention of “tesco” with “waitrose”.
346. the free market: 8th wonder of the world.
345. Eh?
The passge of time makes it both…
In September it was a political masterstroke. Today it is not a priority.
349. addendum in September 2007…
Actually, I would think that Tesco is a good example of a successful business that has realised that offering what its customers wanted is the way to go.
347 - Who said I support free enterprise?
Also, although I don’t shop in Waitrose, but they are completely different business from other supermarkets. Real commitment to local and region variation, UK produce, fair trade when from oversea, and most importantly treat their staff with respect and pay above minimum wage (remember they are part of a company via their share holding).
343. Tesco has external competition across the country to keep it on its toes. The NHS and education services don’t and never can, except for those who can afford it. Internal competition therefore has to provide that same stimulus to continually improve.
343. I agree with Oracle, supermarkets (not just Tescos) are the classic example of what is wrong with standardisation and centralisation being driven by some anonymous bureacrats poring over consumption spreadsheets and deciding which products should be stocked and which are not simply based on their economic model. At the same time they have ripped the heart out of town centres (the centres of communities).
Instead of variety you just get the same old same old mediocrity month in month out and because they have suffocated any diversity in the market the consumer ends up with the choice that supermarkets dictate.
You may want to be a Borg clone living on ‘Soylent Green’ but I suspect most people do not.
343 ed - So, contrary to what you said previously, you don’t think allowing competition and innovation leads to a ‘postcode lottery’. Just getting it straight, you understand. You can’t have it both ways - in one post complaining that choice and competition leads to local variations, and then citing the uniformity of Tesco’s in another.
Of course, you’ve also assumed that a ‘postcode lottery’ is automatically a bad thing. But if there is local democratic control, and choice, that argument falls away in any case.
346 - Why did the dairy farmers sell themselves out to the supermarkets?
How did that happen.
Could someone outline how this position was reached?
349 - Catch up Scott.
Cameron said yesterday it was the priority and would go ahead, no matter what state the public finances.
330. Ah. So, after half-an-hour of deliberation your cutting intellectual response to my post is to call it “bullsh*t” and claim that we have the same supermarket everywhere: Tesco.
Hmm. Let’s have a look shall we?
SUPERMARKET SHARE - TNS (2006) - Source: BBC Website
SUPERMARKET SHARE
Tesco: 30.6%
Asda: 16.6%
Sainsbury’s: 16.3%
Morrison’s: 11.1%
Somerfield: 5.4%
Waitrose: 3.7%
Iceland: 1.8%
So, in fact, Tesco has less than 1/3rd of the UK grocery market and the other main supermarkets outnumber its market share by nearly 2/1. Small stores and independent chains make up nearly 15% of the market, nearly half Tescos share.
So weak.
Tescos is the face of the worst of capitalism. Strong ties with the government have been allowed to run roughshod of competition laws, planning laws, etc, in pursuit of the UK becoming Tesco Land. They are the Walmart of the UK.
356. tim
“Reducing government debt would take priority over tax cuts”
Is there any word in that sentence from the speech yesterday you don’t understand and would like explained?
Has everyone here seen Stanley Kubrick’s ‘The Shining’? Do you remember that scene when poor Shelly Duvall discovers (to her horror) just what Jack Nicholson has spent the last few months typing?
In tim’s case — let’s call it ‘The Tim-ing’ — the manuscript would look like this:
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
the wealthiest estates
IHT
354. i dislike supermarket culture as much as the next man but you don’t have a consistent argument i’m afraid. people do want supermarkets, the voting has already been done - with their feet.
if what you want is diversity, at hugely increased cost and hassle (for that is what high street alternatives to tesco offer), then great, stand up for that and go to the greengrocer, butcher, etc..
however, you will find it much harder to argue the case for that choice in the NHS or education system.
355. Richard - don’t upset the poor little lamb. He’s very confused. He doesn’t know what to do now his dogmatic ideology has been called into question.
Just completed a YouGOV European Election opinion poll.
359 - Err…
The Tory leader said there would be tax cuts in the Conservative Party’s manifesto (such as the rise in the inheritance tax threshold)
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/David-Cameron-Says-Tories-First-Priority-Is-Cutting-Debt-Not-Unfunded-Tax-Cuts/Article/200903315245239?lpos=Politics_First_Poilitics_Article_Teaser_Regi_0&lid=ARTICLE_15245239_David_Cameron_Says_Tories_First_Priority_Is_Cutting_Debt%2C_Not_Unfunded_Tax_Cuts
355. i don’t think that the idealised world of variety, innovation and competition originally mooted is the natural consequence, no, but then my example of tescos (which is heavily centrally planned as well as ruthlessly competitive) was designed to be somewhat ambiguous.
i only mentioned the dreaded ‘postcode lottery’ because, while disastrously flawed, in two words it sums up what is wrong with the whole argument. in the same way, if someone started passionately espousing some sort of socialist philosophy, you could point out that it has been tried and it doesn’t work. “gulags” etc..
357. The problem with the figures you have listed is that the % for independents is way to low and should be at least 35% if not more.
As we have seen the big chains have been caught price-fixing and once they start manipulating the market in that way, they might as well be considered as one organisation.
362 CR - To be fair, at least ed argues on the issues.
“Heeeeeeeeeere’s timmy!!!”
361 - “if what you want is diversity, at hugely increased cost and hassle”
That is a myth.
As said I get milk, 1p more, delivered daily (and they even came in the snow when everything else ground to a halt).
Meat, butcher in cooperation with local farmers, delivery, free. Cost, things like mince slightly more expensive, but less “shrinkage”, so a portion goes far further. Rather than requiring two packs from Tescos, I get one from the butcher. Yes, some things like a whole chickens are more, but then it is a proper free range one, rather than locked in a shed.
It can be done with little hassle. Walking to my door every morning isn’t what I call hassle, and I can’t say having a face to face chat with the delivery guy particularly stressful either.
357. you would have a hard time persuading anyone that UK shopping is not dominated by “big supermarkets”.
358. right - but the critical factors are economy of scale, brand, and aggressive pricing. everything else is secondary.
Is Mike allowing repetitive posting to make sure the site gets to 1 million posts?
365 ed - You’re right in the sense that we should embrace localism, and make sure people understand that they will have choice. If it were unelected quangos imposing arbitrary decisions locally (which is the New Labour version of the concept), your objection would be spot-on. The Conservatives do need to get the difference across.
367. thanks, i really appreciate that
369. i sympathise with what you are saying enormously, unfortunately it just doesn’t work. you have cherry picked some examples where the story is “not too bad” but for the majority i’m afraid supermarkets are the only sensible option. people don’t shop at supermarkets for fun, they do it because they don’t have the extra time and money to do otherwise.
personally i always kid myself that i will buy as much food as poss. off the local market and from local shops, in some cases you do get noticeably better produce and it is cheaper (fruit and veg for example). in reality i am time-poor and it just doesn’t happen consistently enough - i spend pounds per month on the market and hundreds of pounds per month in tesco.
aggressive pricing - This is key.
As Walmart did in the US, they bust all other competition, by taking short term losses, offering products at way less than cost, simply to drive them out of business. Then the prices are raised, and actually what you end up paying for many things actually much cheaper than you used to pay at the local shop.
If you have ever traveled extensively you will find small towns where the only sizable food store is Walmart and they aren’t cheap. It is a complete monopoly position, no other food store for 50 miles.
Now the UK is far more competition than the US, however, the creep is there. Tescos, Sainsbury, etc are really getting into “locals”, in my area they were allowed to open a 3rd store in a small town, directly opposite an existing independent store and bust it within a year. They also exploiting 24/7 access via tie ups with petrol stations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7954811.stm
Protectionism ahoy!
many things actually much cheaper than you used to pay at the local shop.
correction
many things AREN’T actually much cheaper than you used to pay at the local shop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
Ok, ok..Preston’s deffo been turned
‘Of course it’s embarrassing for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling that a spotlight has been shone again on their misjudgements. But we’ve known for many months that they were wrong on these very big issues’
Another correction / clarification,
they bust all other competition …in some areas..
370. but the critical factors are economy of scale
Fair enough but you cannot consider them without considering the diseconomies of scale:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diseconomy_of_scale
I would suggest that large organisations such as Tescos have already crossed the threshold after which diseconomies start to play a large part.
372. i don’t think that fully embracing any -ism is the answer, i’m afraid, and localism is no different. the argument sounds nice but is full of holes.
i would want to be able to go to any hospital in the UK and get a certain guaranteed level of service. cf. going abroad and eating in mcdonalds. “at least we know what we’re going to get”.
maybe decentralisation is the right direction to go in, but incrementally.
364. Oh dear, tim.
You rpovide a link to another article that says “a Conservative government’s first priority must be reducing Britain’s debt” to support your claim upthread that “The point about IHT is that it crystallises the Conservative priority”.
I too give up, defeated. Put it on every poster. Labour landslide.
“Never argue with an idiot. They bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
375 - I never did trust Sarkozy!
363
Me too, which makes a change.
Seems there’s a YOUGOV euro elections poll out for those who are on the panel.
379. tescos does not come close to that being an issue. they have very efficient logistics and huge buying power. high prices at tesco are profit-taking on their part, not inefficiencies of scale.
having said that, on the NHS, education, etc. (where this started), that is a big issue.
Supermarkets are not cheap.
Whiskas pouches in my local pet food shop 2.50 Tresco Supermarket 3.85. I only use the supermarket for esentials such as toliet roll and the like. Meat is cheaper in the local butcher as I can buy the amount I want, not the supermarkets prepacked amounts eg 3/4 of mince is plenty but supermarkets sell it in 500g and 1000gm. Fruit and veg, much cheaper from the farm shop. Milk is best bought in the supermarket. Discretion in spending in supermarkets is a must. I think I am saving at least £50 month , irrespective of the cost of getting there and back
382
Well he is French
This will cheer a lot of people up….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/20/george-galloway-banned-canada
383 - Yeah I just did that which is a first.
374. agreed, this is a bit unsavoury. but note that tesco and their ilk have been pretty effectively demonised by everyone. if you said that some local village shops were too expensive and had excessive profit margin because there was no competition from tescos, people would not all nod along in agreement “oh yes, i hate those local village shops”.
I think Paul Hardcastle should collaborate with tim on a belated follow-up to his hit single ‘19′. Let’s call it ‘IHT’.
I-I-I-I-Inheritance T-T-Tax!
T-T-Tuh-Tuh-Tuh-Tuh-Tuh-Tax! Inheritance T-T-Tax!!
Inher-her-her-her-i-t-t-t-t-tance!!!
381 but that’s DETAIL , bots don’t do detail, Cameron never said the prority is to cut IHT, he said it would go ahead, there is a difference and unsurprisingly Tim is always wrong, thats the first law of bots.
On that note tara
T-T-T-T-Tax!!!!!
380. i would want to be able to go to any hospital in the UK and get a certain guaranteed level of service. cf. going abroad and eating in mcdonalds. “at least we know what we’re going to get”.
Well you are not going to guarantee that anyway because there are four seperate Governments overseeing Health in the UK
going abroad and eating in mcdonalds. “at least we know what we’re going to get”.
Certainly, there are identical core products ( just as you would find Heinz Beans and Kelloggs Cornflakes in every store in the country) but menus in McDonalds differ between countries and particularly in those where they are not allowed to use the McDonalds logo (Italy?, Australia? - ever had a burger with beetroot in it?)
385. in general they are pretty cheap, that is why everyone shops there. counter to your examples, there are plenty of things where they undercut alternatives by large margins. alcohol is a good example that has been in the news recently.
certainly discretion in spending is the way to go if you want to squeeze out maximum value, that is true of any shopping. in particular, it is possible to save large amounts within supermarkets if you are aware of their more cynical marketing techniques (and your own hidden herd consumer mentality).
387 - Perhaps related to this shocking realisation.
MP George Galloway acted as the secret ‘emissary’ for a British-based Islamic dissident who purchased a satellite phone supplied to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
The phone was used by Osama bin Laden and his associates to plan the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/apr/27/uk.iraq
384. How do you know??? Do you work for their accountants or sit on their board?
Crosby’s deal is pure business. A very fat fee.
Tim. The £3.1 billion figure was the cost before Labour hiked the allowance. That brought it down to £2ish. The £1.3 billion is (as I understand it) a Treasury figure and reflects the fall in house and asset prices. I assume that the £3.1 billion in the Guardian was a figure provided by the journalist rather than the Conservatives. The scale of change resulting from the Labour hike and the subsequent fall in house prices looks about right. Your inability to follow such a basic set of numbers speaks volumes about your ability to reason.
The IHT cut is a sensible thing for the Tories to leave out there. Stupid Labourites will spend lots of time attacking it and then at the election I expect the Tories will come out with sensible tax changes for the working poor (partially paid for by hacking back tax credits). After all, IHT was popular, but is unlikely to be stolen by Labour, whereas putting out lots of clever tax changes simply is asking for Gordon “Magpie” Brown to steal them.
Going on about IHT is like Southam Observer and his whingeing about how the Tories had to acknowledge the problems of the future. This was obviously going to be dealt with and mindless repetition on pbc was never going to change the Tory timetable. Ditto IHT. It’s boring and please dont go on about it.
Can’t you find something intelligent to say about how Labour will bring social justice or something? Or that Brown is taking difficult decisions that need to be made and that in reality the Tories have endorsed most of his actions. That it is one thing to be the opposition, another to be the government and actually take the decisions. (As opposed to the idiotic Labour line of “do nothing” which is untrue). I know it’s difficult to say anything positive about Labour - they are bereft of ideas, and their motivation is poor, but you could try pointing at the positive things they’ve managed - the decline in the number of homeless, the rise in early years schooling. Anything but frickin repetition of silly things.
393. true but i think both these points are quite pedantic.
i cited mcd’s partly because they are franchises. there is pretty much nothing in common, as you say - but you still do it, because there is that warm fuzzy feeling of knowing you are in safe hands and that certain procedures are being enforced all the way down the supply chain. that must be true 1000x for health care.
343/344 “Tesco same everywhere” - untrue, the Tesco in Shaftesbury doesn’t offer the exact same range of goods as the one in Blandford. Shaftesbury serves a mix of aspirational/weekend/retired and agricultural/local industry. Blandford has a very large Army customer base - a lot more booze, less aspirational foods. Similar differences between Poole and Salisbury branches.
Of course the basic model is the same, the infrastructure similar, the base range of goods the same. But there are post code differences.
Still local community store is cheaper, has local baker bread, local butcher meat, local hens eggs, supplies most of what I want (and if not I can order it in or over internet)
396. it is completely obvious from even the most casual observation of their business, or any of the wealth of commentary about it. as it happens i do know some insiders at the HQ of a large supermarket, but they don’t tell me anything that isn’t well known.
394 - Again this doesn’t have to be true either. If you want to buy absolute gut rot, yes they are very very very cheap.
But, for instance if you want wine, that is better than for your chips, you can do it £4-5-6 a bottle (again is that much more than the supermarkets?) from numerous wine retailers, offering huge selections of decent stuff, especially online.
400. you are missing the point a bit there i think. central planning is very much in evidence.
399. true but i think both these points are quite pedantic.
No I think they demonstrate that you are a party ideologue who spouts anything that comes to mind that fits in with your view of things without thinking about them and demonstrates exactly the problem with that ideology.
You believe in ‘one size fits all’. In the real world such a view is unachievable. The nature of humanity ensures that. People are diverse and will always fight against the norm (or most of them will in some way). I’m afraid your view is delusional and is what is so damaging to this country……
400. “aspirational food” lol. i think i had some of that in the curry house last night, it certainly looked ok but my guts are feeling it now.
For all you Beeb haters out there, they’re currently leading on the Brown-I-was-right-NAO-were-wrong story. Streange, eh?
404. can you tell me what party i am an ideologue for?!
lol
367. Oh dear. Sense of humour failure there Richard!
Regarding the “issues” - if you actually read this thread properly you would see that I actually started this discussion: see my post @ 300.
406 - Stephen Timms wins the NuLab LexiBingo for today.
Treasury minister Stephen Timms said “lessons needed to be learnt” about the handling of Northern Rock.
401. No what is obvious is they have cornered the market sufficiently so that they can dictate the terms to a significant extent of how the market further develops and that is an entirely different thing. It is no longer in anyway a ‘free’ market.
407. Centralism……
402. If you want to buy absolute gut rot
Some of the ranges that certain supermarkets offer look less appitising than dog food! Probably smell better than cat food. I don’t know how some nutters eat cat food even for a bet it stinks!
Mike or any moderator I notice that the offensive and untruthful comments about me at 255 are still there.
I don’t know whether to feel chuffed that a bully like URW feels my opinions so important that he has to flag it up to “all fair minded individuals”.
Nevertheless, I told my boss I must hate him and he laughed. Must be his Jewish sense of humour.
402. i don’t want to labour the point with supermarkets as the analogy is anything but precise.
however, alcohol in tescos is very very competitively priced across the board. there is not much (booze) that they sell that can be consistently found cheaper elsewhere - their decent wine is not exactly pricey. it may be possible in some cases to beat them using mail order, but that statement sort of proves the point doesn’t it.
More madness. Student arrested for writing on the floor in chalk.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/henryporter/2009/mar/20/police-protest
Yep. Chalk.
The “prophet” Cable strikes again,
Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said he had warned Chancellor Alistair Darling several times about the need for Northern Rock to curtail 125% mortgages.
“We repeatedly warned the government that this was a terrible waste of taxpayers’ money,” he told BBC News.
“The government did nothing, saying this was a commercial matter. It should have intervened and stopped it.”
Just out of interest does anybody ever check all these prophecies he proclaims to have had. I don’t doubt he has been right on some, but it does seem like every issue, he was the lone man foreseeing it. Personally, it is starting to wear a little bit thin with me. Just in the way Gordo is never wrong, Cable always saw it coming, and Squeaky, well he just wasn’t sure.
402. If I buy a £4 bottle of wine and it is no good, I can try somewhere else next week.
Dosen’t really apply to a heart by-pass, though …
416. Is this the same Cable who was recently arguing that the nationalised NR should be used to greatly expand mortgage lending, i.e. take on significant additional risks?
415, pathetic and sadly predictable.
Re 411. Adding to that and whichever party supports centralism in the most meaningful way. Consequently, my view is the most effective centralist party in the UK is Labour although there are others who have the characteristics of centralism - Libdems to some extent, BNP and other socialist parties.
New thread - 82% of Lib Dem voters say “It’s time for change”
416. I started looking to see if the prophate had voted against the establishment of the FSA - I had to break off and never finished the legislation voting record search but it would not surprise me if Cable voted for the change in legislation from the bank of englad regulating the financial services industry to the FSA.
If he did he would loose alot of credibility.
408. you started it, not with a discussion of issues, but with a misdirected ad hominem rant because i raised one of the obvious flaws in your plan.
410. as pointed out upthread no single supermarket has more than 1/3 share - the market is anything but cornered.
411. i am not advocating centralism by the way (or any other -ism for that matter), i just think that localism is only a very naive answer at best.
414 - That is a different point,
You said,
“undercut alternatives by large margins. alcohol is a good example that has been in the news recently.”
And I didn’t disagree that Tescos are competitive, I even said they were very very cheap for gut rot. But I said, you can purchase elsewhere where there is little difference between Tescos and them.
My argument, the myth is Tescos (and other supermarkets) are just cheap, full stop, you just can’t get stuff elsewhere for the same kind of money. It just isn’t true, you can, although I do agree on the “hassle / time poor” element to some extent.
I am lucky my local businesses are very very well run (and successful I should add) and offer the delivery service etc, which takes all hassle out of it.
Six Nations.
Am I the only chap who thinks England’s price is far too short? Don’t get me wrong, if we repeat the performance we had last time we’ll stuff Scotland. But if we don’t, they’ve got a decent time with backs who can, shockingly, score tries.
408 Casino Royale - Sorry, I didn’t make myself clear. I wasn’t suggesting that you weren’t arguing about the issues; my point was that ed is one of the few left-leaning posters who does. [I'd actually written a second sentence, but deleted it because I decided it wasn't a good idea to name names...]
370. Ah. So you accept that you were wrong then. Thank you.
@330 you said: “we do have the same supermarkets everywhere. there’s no escaping tesco.”
@370 you now say: “you would have a hard time persuading anyone that UK shopping is not dominated by “big supermarkets”
So, now I’ve proved to you that Tesco actually has less 1/3rd market share and it’s quite easy to “escape” it. You chose one of its competitors. Competitors which outnumber it by more than 2:1.
But, we know you’ve conceded defeat on this point now, so you’ve moved onto another one. Saying that UK shopping is “dominated by big supermarkets” and that I’d have a hard time persuading anyone otherwise.
Well, of course UK *grocery* shopping is dominated by big supermarkets. They have ~85% of the market. That is a fact. But, I’m not going to dispute that, or try to prove otherwise.
That wasn’t the point I was making. The point I was making is that imposed uniformity to avoid a “postcode lottery” is a ridiculous argument to make and leads to inefficient practice, restricted choice and terrible service.
Choice and innovation is alive and well in the UK groceries market. There are six main supermarkets to choose from and a wide range of different products and business styles at play. If people aren’t happy with that, there are independent retailers too.
People can vote with their feet as to whether they prioritise cheap price, animal welfare standards, “buying british” or quality depending - or a balance of all four - depending on their need. These choices aren’t fixed and are changing all the time - the markets respond. Noone ever complains of “postcode lottery” with supermarkets - because there is a choice. Easy as pie.
Markets are good for innovation, personals service, rapid response to customer need and overall quality levels.
426. you are going round in circles a bit there.
372. What on earth is wrong with people making purchasing decisions on time and price?
422. Your “flaw” was dismal. You quoted “postcode lottery” which I comprehensively rebutted at post 300. You couldn’t counter that effectively, so instead you responded to that with “BS”.
Previously, you claimed Tesco was everywhere. You were proved wrong. Now you’ve changed your tune, but you’re arguing different positions all over the place.
Just what is your point ed? Do you even have one?
My point is that NHS and Education need to be liberated and freed to run as independent institutions and that “postcode lottery” is a popular buzzword deployed to shutdown the debate by leftwingers like yourself whenever it is raised.
When challenged, you never have any real arguments to counter it other than it’s very difficult to convince people.
Well, here’s an idea: let’s try it and let me decide which service model they like best. Just like supermarkets.
The really revealing thing about this thread is that we all have different opinions about which supermarket/grocery is best. That is why the fact we have choice in them is a good thing. We can “pick” the one most suited to us. If we don’t we have noone to blame but ourselves. The “shape” of the market is determined by our collective decisions. Just like voting. Very democratic.
427. Um… no ed.
My position and point has been entirely consistent throughout this entire thread. I am reiterating it again here for your benefit to help focus your mind.
You have jumped and shifted all over the place. In your heart I think you know this too, which is why you’re trying to shift the argument onto something else all the time.
425. Thanks Richard.
Maybe he does, but he still roles out the same tired cliches and jargon. It would be nice if we could cut through the cr*p and discuss the real meat of the issues, with reference to the facts, rather than always trying to play off the latest buzzwords as a “killer” argument.